Rasmussen Has Romney Leading in IA, YouGov Releases State Polls

Scott Rasmussen is out with a second poll this week that shows Mitt Romney picking off a state won by Barack Obama in 2008. This time it is Iowa.

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Rasmussen)
Mitt Romney (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%

This poll was done September 19th among 500 likely voters. Meanwhile, YouGov has released polls for eight battleground states and they show Barack Obama leading seven of them (including Iowa) while the results for the US Senate races seem to contradict other recent polls we have seen.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 43%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

Bill Nelson (D-inc) 44%
Connie Mack (R) 40%

Dean Heller (R-inc) 42%
Shelley Berkley (D) 35%

Tim Kaine (D) 43%
George Allen (R) 42%

Tommy Thompson (R) 48%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%

Pat McCrory (R) 48%
Walter Dalton (D) 32%

All these polls were done September 7-14 among a varying number of registered voters in each state.

Posted by Dave at 2:19 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (221)

221 Responses to “Rasmussen Has Romney Leading in IA, YouGov Releases State Polls”

  1. Annie says:


  2. John in Ireland says:


  3. Pitchaboy says:

    Up IA, NH and CO. Likely up FL. VA or OH to be worked on. The silent majority will rise

  4. Annie says:

    Wolf Blitzer claims Obama “looked presidential” and was at “the top of his game” on the Letterman show the other night. Didn’t Blitzer see how Obama couldn’t state the size of the national debt at the start of his term and how high it is today? Obama looked all loosey-goosey, and had the usual bunch of “duh” moments in the Letterman interview. Not “presidential” at all.

    Rush is discussing how all of the Obama minion in interviews keep using the phrase (no matter how they are questioned) describing Romney as a person who “shoots first, aims later.” I think interviewers should turn that on them and remind them that Jimmy Carter used that exact phrase to describe Ronald Reagan in 1980.

  5. RB says:

    I know it is the rule of thumb, but why do state poll trends lag behind national poll trends?

  6. Optimus Prime says:

    Wolf’s claim to fame was only fouling 2 pairs of scivvies during the Bagdad bombing not 3 as the other journalists.

  7. Polaris says:

    #5 There are a lot of theories and guesses (and I have made my share) but the truthful answer is no one quite knows….but they do.


  8. No Tribe says:

    Romney going up in MI and WI with Restore for $1.5M buy this week.

  9. Polaris says:

    #8 Indicates that Romney thinks that WI and MI may be in play. That would be consistant with a race between Evenish in DRI to D+2.

    Remember that Bush *barely* lost MI in 2004.


  10. Annie says:

    I think CNN has decided that MSNBC is their biggest competitor – the network they are losing viewers to (wrong), and so, must ramp-up their liberal bias. It is getting as outrageous as MSNBC’s, with Blitzer and his ilk obviously cheer-leading for Obama. CNN is managed by a bunch of boobs – they drove away conservative viewers when they treated Lou Dobbs, Glenn Beck, the Crossfire show’s Buchanan, et al, with such disrespect. CNN’s ratings deserve to be in the toilet.

  11. Polaris says:

    Also some MI media markets also include parts of Ohio.


  12. No Tribe says:

    @3, that’s exactly my take on the states.

    Takeaway IN, NC, IA, NH and CO. Likely FL.

    Needs one more state.

  13. Annie says:

    6 – Optimus Prime – I remember that moment of journalistic whining during the Baghdad bombing, too! And Bernie Shaw was crying like a toddler in need of his mommy.

  14. Polaris says:

    Here is my take on the race not based simply on the polls but the general picture I am getting from the polling using D+2 and a reasonable DRI assumption:

    For Romney:

    In the Bag: All McCain states, Neb#2, IN, NC.

    Likely: Fla

    Looking Good: VA, IA

    Iffy: OH, NH, NV, CO

    Longshot: WI, MI

    Not Gonna Happen: PA

    My take/guess for what it’s worth.


  15. Annie says:

    Polaris – Romney will need the “iffies” or the “longshots.”

  16. Annie says:

    I’m going to lunch (going on noon in California). Have fun – check on you all later!

  17. Polaris says:

    #15 Assuming he gets the Looking goods and better, he only needs to get a couple of the iffies, esp if one of those is OH.


  18. rdelbov says:

    These Yougov polls lean D in registration and some are funny with number of indies.

    As far as I can tell the numbers released are all RV?

    Its just a bit uneven in D/R/I. The ones more in line are closer then others or even red in senate races.

    Party ID matters!!!

  19. SusyQue says:

    ooo is designing and selling his own red white and blue flags. He has no shame. They are all ooo’s
    design…not looking good…..what signal is that
    to us…..not good!

  20. GPO says:

    any chance flipping Maine district?

  21. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    why aren’t these pollsters polling ohio?

  22. tonysoprano says:

    “Also some MI media markets also include parts of Ohio.


    No they don’t.

    The closest Ohio place to Michigan is Toledo, and they don’t get Detroit stations.

    Another made-up “fact” from Polaris.

  23. Polaris says:

    #18 Yep. All the YouGov polls are RV polls. This close to the election? Toss ’em. No business giving us RV polls.


  24. SusyQue says:

    Actress Jessica Alba asks voters to pledge allegiance to Obama.


  25. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    To be fair, it’s JT that makes up facts.

    What Polaris generally does is only admit to facts that make him feel good, and then uses those limited facts to create an alternate reality.

  26. Mr.Vito says:

    “Wolf’s claim to fame was only fouling 2 pairs of scivvies during the Bagdad bombing not 3 as the other journalists.”

    I thought it was being the dumbest dumba$$ to ever appear on Jeopardy…

  27. No Tribe says:

    Toledo goes the other way, but I’m sure they are already buying that for Ohio.

  28. Phil says:

    Polaris, I’m in agreement pretty much with your assessment of the swing states. The exception being Virginia.

  29. patsfaninpittsburgh says:


    What is up with the ignorant trolls?

  30. Mose says:

    I would forgive Jessica Alba much.

  31. Polaris says:

    #22 I am pretty sure Detriot media markets DO reach parts of Ohio. If I am mistaken so be it, but detroit is NOT far away from Ohio. Not at all. I know that some Ohio markets DO reach Southern MI as well.


  32. middle of the roader says:

    I agree that Romney is likely to take Florida, but, I don’t see how VA could be in the “looking good” category. The current VA average on RCP is -4.7% for Romney.
    That’s an awful lot of ground to pick up in a national race that has stayed pretty steady in the -3% range for Romney since the beginning of the general election campaign (Romney’s biggest deficit was around 4.6% and he got it to a tie during the GOP Conv.).

  33. Polaris says:

    #28 That’s where the “feel” comes in and I will be the first to admit that is more art than science. VA can be fairly well modeled as a bluer version of NC, and we have some real (albeit very early) data coming in from NC. That is telling me that most of the pollsters are severely undersampling republicans…and this suspicion seems to be born out by those VA polls that use a reasonable DRI model.

    That is why I consider VA to be looking good rather than iffy.


  34. Mr.Vito says:

    This map shows a media market that includes ohio and a county in michigan…


    (This is the last time I will find your supporting evidence for you, Polaris…

    …a-hole creed… everybody gets one)

  35. Polaris says:

    #32 Most of the polls that give that -4.7% are using a 2008 DRI model and we have real information about NC (a bellweather for VA) that is telling me that VA is going to be a lot less than 2008 in Dem DRI…A LOT less.

    This is born out by polls in VA that have used reasonable DRIs…the undeclared respondants are overwhelmingly republican in VA if you use those polling samples. That indicates that VA breaks in the traditional GOP way…maybe not as much as 2010, but certainly it won’t be anything like 2008.


  36. Polaris says:

    #34 Sorry. I found the same link myself but you beat me to it. The point is there IS Ohio-MI media overlap.


  37. No Tribe says:

    On Maine, it’s being targeted with the NH buying, but they seem more focused on WI and MI.

    The 1 in Maine only really comes into play with Romney getting to 268. Say, takes FL, NC, OH, IA, and then Colorado. At 268 he needs one more EV.

    But if he’s getting the 1 in ME, he’s likely to have gotten the 4 in NH already.

    So howabout Obama wins Ohio and the west, and Romney gets 1 from ME, and wins FL, NC, VA, and Iowa and Wisconsin. That would get him to 269.

  38. tonysoprano says:

    “#22 I am pretty sure Detriot media markets DO reach parts of Ohio. If I am mistaken so be it, but detroit is NOT far away from Ohio. Not at all. I know that some Ohio markets DO reach Southern MI as well.


    Stick to making up polls. You know not of what you speak.

    Detroit TV stations DO NOT get air in Toledo, the closest Ohio point to any MI media market.

    The networks have their own affiliates in Toledo, so they don’t carry Detroit stations there. Neither do the cable services.

  39. Redneckman says:

    I dont’ consider Wisonsin a long shot at all. I would consider Romney a slight favorite there at this point.

  40. DW says:

    I mentioned twice already today that with all the races in the last three years in VA, (Gov 2009, congress 2010, state senate 2011) the GOP was underestimated in all polls. Same will happen this year.

  41. Redneckman says:


  42. Polaris says:

    #38 I am not making up anything. We’ve shown that MI and OH media markets DO overlap. Silly think to get your knickers in a twist over anyway….but you are determined to do it over any little nitpick aren’t you?


  43. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    One thing I’ll grant John Boehner: He looks a LOT more comfortable holding a hammer than Nancy Pelosi does.

  44. Polaris says:

    #37 I consider ME#1 to be a Chimera. We talk about it every four years, but IIRC the only time it came close to going GOP was 2000 when NH went for Bush. If Romney gets ME#1 he won’t need it. My take.


  45. DW says:

    oh wow, I just noticed that the yougov polls were an entire week in length, including the sweet spot right after the Drat convention! Sept 7 8 9. So more than ONE-THIRD of the poll results were the weekend after the DNC. This, along with the fact that they are RV rather than LV means the numbers really are not that bad for Romney.

  46. Polaris says:

    #39 Maybe I am just a bit pessimistic about WI because the Indies do lean left and Madison is has turned into a corrupt Dem snakepit (including bussed in Dem voters from Ill…can’t prove it but I am morally certain of it).


  47. middle of the roader says:

    There has been demographic shifts in VA that trend Dem since 2008. 2010 was a landslide year. Kaine is up by a similar 4.4% on RCP. Hard to see too many voters for Kaine going to Romney. A few, but, not that many.

  48. Polaris says:

    #47 Actually no. If you track registration in VA, the trend is pro-GOP.


  49. DW says:

    47 – and as I keep saying the last three years the GOP has been underestimated in polls by 4 to 10 points, when you look at the last polls compared to the actual results.

  50. tonysoprano says:

    “#38 I am not making up anything. We’ve shown that MI and OH media markets DO overlap. Silly think to get your knickers in a twist over anyway….but you are determined to do it over any little nitpick aren’t you?


    No, you moron. MI media markets do not carry anything originating from Ohio, and Ohio TV markets do not carry anything originating from Ohio.

    Your assertion on this is basically like all your assertions, devoid of reality.

  51. Polaris says:

    #47 Not only that, but most of the polls that are in the RCP average are using the 2008 model which is almost certainly dead wrong. This is where I am being guided by REAL voting results coming out of NC. If VA got bluer then NC should have as well, but the real vote data coming from NC tells a very different tale.


  52. jason says:

    Tommy Thompson might not win in Wisconsin but he is doing well in Nevada… 8)

  53. tonysoprano says:

    “I mentioned twice already today that with all the races in the last three years in VA, (Gov 2009, congress 2010, state senate 2011) the GOP was underestimated in all polls.”

    Except that Obama was not on the ticket in any of those years.

  54. Surfnut says:

    How can you guys even turn on your computers? This is turning into a bigger butt kicking than 4 years ago. The only state that Obama carried that goes the other way is Indiana. Dems are now more motivated that Repubs, so the LV screen that all of you were pining for will make you now wish for the RV screen again.

    Romney’s campaign is in disarray and looks to be running out of money. Conservative outside groups are now starting to focus on congressional races. Thank God Obama will be able to finish what he’s started. The Bush polices have trashed our economy. Full recovery and prosperity will come with the 2nd term of our president.

  55. Polaris says:

    #52 Ah the classic, “wrong in one, wrong in all” tactic. You’ve already been shown that the MI and OH markets do mix. I also said that I was willing to be proven wrong on this point. I note that it wasn’t even the most important point why Romney would spend time in MI. HE (and his staff) clearly believe that MI may be vulnerable. I notice you are NOT disputing that.

    I think we are done here.


  56. Polaris says:

    #56 Romney is losing and Romney’s campaign is in dissrray?

    Really? Then why is Romney TIED with Obama in Gallup?

    Answer: You are being fed a line of manure by the MSM.


  57. jason says:

    You guys will love this…

    Obama supporter interviews herself… hillarious

  58. Polaris says:

    #55 Yes, but Obama IS on the ballot in NC and we are seeing the actual demographics of the vote start to come in and we can compare to 2008. NC is a reasonable model for VA if you shift it red. We find the youth vote is way down, the minority vote is way down, the registered Dem vote is way down. Shall I go on. This is a leading indicator (and a very strong one) that the VA election will follow the same basic trend.


  59. middle of the roader says:

    From a Bloomberg report on VA: “Since the last election, Democratic core constituencies have gained and Republicans have lost ground. Minority and white college-graduate voters are up 1 percentage point and white, non-college voters are down 2 points over the past four years in Northern Virginia, Frey says, based on Census data. The state reflects demographic shifts nationwide. Minority eligible voters, 80 percent of whom supported Obama in 2008, have increased by around 3 percentage points. White working- class voters, whom Obama lost by 18 points, have decreased their share by about the same amount. “

  60. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    How can you guys even turn on your computers? This is turning into a bigger butt kicking than 4 years ago. The only state that Obama carried that goes the other way is Indiana. Dems are now more motivated that Repubs, so the LV screen that all of you were pining for will make you now wish for the RV screen again.

    Comment by Surfnut — September 20, 2012 @ 3:08 pm

    Obama’s lead smaller than 4 years ago + Obama will win less states = “bigger buttkicking”

    The brain of the 47%-er at work! Now go cash your government check. I worked hard for it.

  61. DW says:

    56 – a second term of Obama is the end of the US Dollar. End of the economy. End of liberty. End of freedom. We are already over the cliff and Obama is working hard to make sure we hit the rocks at the bottom as quickly as possible.

  62. Marv says:

    On another note……..the BYU at Boise St game tonight should be quite entertaining.

  63. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Full recovery and prosperity will come with the 2nd term of our president.

    Comment by Surfnut — September 20, 2012 @ 3:08 pm

    Hey EPH you should do stand up comedy 😀

  64. SusyQue says:


    As Breitbart News suggested last week, it appears Chief Justice John Roberts did, in fact, switch his vote on the Obamacare decision under pressure from President Barack Obama, the Democrats, and the mainstream media. John Fund at National Review has more details today–including evidence about abizarre address by Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chair of the Judiciary Committee, that singled out Roberts himself:
    Indeed, Senator Patrick Leahy (Vt., D.) , the chair of the Judiciary Committee, suddenly took to the floor on May 14 and directly addressed Roberts, urging him in harshly partisan tones to uphold Obamacare and maintain “the proper role of the judicial branch.”
    Stewart Baker, a partner at the Washington law firm Steptoe & Johnson, writes at the Volokh Conspiracy that he found the whole campaign against Roberts weird and unusual, given that the justices’ conference vote on Obamacare had been held six weeks earlier. Why “would the chair of the Judiciary Committee risk the appearance of trying to harshly strongarm the Court when his remarks wouldn’t make the slightest difference?” he asks. “The Leahy speech reads like it was written for an audience of one. It offers flattery and it offers threats, all of them personalized to appeal to Chief Justice Roberts alone.” Fund adds that the White House likely benefited from leaks at the Court, and almost certainly knew of Roberts’s switch–just as it almost certainly knew of the initial vote to throw out the individual mandate in March:

  65. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    Wow, this is a pretty good example of what I was talking about in #25.

    Vito has provided Polaris with some sort of evidence that an Ohio station gets broadcast in at least part of one Michigan county. So, if that’s true, then it would be technically true that Ohio media buys could bleed into Michigan. Polaris uses this information to conclude that the media markets ‘overlap’. And, therefore, presto change-o, Michigan markets also reach parts of Ohio (I suppose due to their ‘overlap’, which has so far been proven by one Ohio station reaching one county in Michigan.) Polaris then fudges ‘Michigan’ into ‘Detroit’ in his mind, and, Voila!!!

    Detroit media markets go into Ohio.

    See how easy that was?

  66. DW says:

    55 – so what! I am talking about pollsters missing the mark as it relates to their polling in VA. There is nowhere near the energy for Obama in VA as there was in 2008. Not even close.

  67. jason says:

    Trolls have been watching too much MSM….

  68. tonysoprano says:

    I am not disputing that Romney’s staff believes that they should make some sort of play in MI.

    I am not sure Romney believes that MI is in play, and neither do you. Notice that Romney is not setting foot in MI.

    I notice that you are spreading a lot of manure, just like 2008.

  69. SusyQue says:

    It sure doesn’t feel good when one cannot trust a Chief Justice who called himself “conservative.”

  70. Surfnut says:

    But Polaris, I thought Rasmussen was your polling Bible? This thing is over. If the shoe was on the other foot, I’d be saying the same thing. Every day brings more hope for our country and more misery for the out of touch tea bagging GOP. Until the Repubs change their backwards social views, trickle down economic policies, and bomb all foreigners international policy, you’ll be relegated to permanent minority status.

  71. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    a second term of Obama is the end of the US Dollar. End of the economy. End of liberty. End of freedom. We are already over the cliff and Obama is working hard to make sure we hit the rocks at the bottom as quickly as possible.

    Comment by DW

    Better we open a vein and be done with it, than die a death of a thousand cuts.
    Perhaps from the ashes a new phoenix will arise.

  72. Polaris says:

    #61 Party registration numbers tell a different tale and to VOTE you have to register to vote…at least so far.


  73. jason says:

    ” Full recovery and prosperity will come with the 2nd term of our president.”


    This is the sort of stuff Pravda used to be famous for.

    I guess you can still find it in the Cuban daily Gramma.

    How about:

    “And the proletariat will rise up and glorious days for the workers are ahead”

  74. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    Hey surfnut, you moron, Obama just cratered 7 points to a tie on Gallup!

    You’re understandably panicking. I am understandably enjoying it.

  75. DW says:

    Until the Drats change their backwards social views, trickle up poverty, and appease all international terrorists policies, you’ll be relegated to permanent minority status.

  76. SusyQue says:

    Hmmm…I was watching Fox at a campaign stop….but in the background I heard Mitt Romney being introduced and immediately the guy that follows Romney said he had lost contact. They switched to Shep’s studio B….It sure looked like a purposeful cut to me. Of course, I could be wrong.

  77. Surfnut says:


    RCP average:

    9/20/2008 Obama +2.3
    9/20/2012 Obama +3.3

    ‘Nuff said.

  78. Polaris says:

    #72 I still hold to Rasmussen. You must have missed my posts from this morning. You do know that Ras today and Ras yesterday are the SAME within the margin of error? You DO know about Margin of Error, right?


  79. jason says:

    So surfnut is a run of the mill Marxist… yawnnnnn

    You are wasting time here, I am sure there is still a remnant of an OWS movement somewhere.

  80. bio mom says:

    Ignore Surfnut. He is probably 15 years old.

    I am encouraged this afternoon. And with the polling lately leaves only one conclusion: this will be a turnout election. The poll results coming out lately differ mainly in the DRI estimates of the particular pollster. The more D give Obama good leads; the more R give Romney leads or ties or closer races. That is why the psy ops is going on from the lefties and their media allies to depress the R enthusiasm and to turn the usual mush Rs into a whining frenzy.

  81. janz says:

    Mother Jones tapes, dealing with Romney’s donors’s meeting, now shows that editing was done (explained simply as a cutting off point by Corn) on Romney’s controversial Palestine remarks.

    The MSM consequently spent tons of time deriding this comment, that now is shown to be ‘different’ when put into a complete proper context. But, the damage is done, and I doubt the MSM will do any public apologies for jumping the gun and running with the tape…unlike what Andrea Mitchell did when she refused to run Obama’s remarks because they hadn’t been ‘authenticated.’

  82. June says:

    Dave, you need to post the new NC poll from High Point University , where it is now showing Obama up by three over Romney .


    Obama 46
    Romney 43

    WGHP FOX 8 / High Point University

  83. middle of the roader says:

    I’m still going under the assumption that Romney will outperform McCain by 3-6%. Even the best assumption still leaves Romney a point or two short nationally – and in places like VA.
    VA is a swing state and in play, no doubt, but it can hardly be considered a “looking good” play for Romney.

  84. Rupert says:

    #78 Huh?

  85. INDIA PAPA 727 says:


  86. Marv says:

    #72 Surfnut,

    You need to get a haircut, get out of your parent’s basement, tell your boyfriend that you’ve decided to go straight, and go out and find a job.

  87. DW says:

    79 – no, that’s silly. McCain suspended his campaign, was broke, and had no path to win thereafter. Totally different circumstance today, especially considering most polls in the RCP average are based on party weights from 2008 which is not going to happen this time.

  88. Polaris says:

    #79 Not suprising when most of the polls are making models assuming it will be 2008 again. It’s also an example of cherrypicking your data.

    This time four years ago, McCain was in the process of cratering from Lehman Bros. That means the RCP average of that time still had the McCain favorable bounce polls with (apprx) a D+3 electorate…which the economic crisis would soon transform into a D+7 one.

    So your snapshot is misleading in multiple ways.


  89. Surfnut says:

    Gotta get back on my tricycle. Talk to you later!

  90. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    ‘Nuff said.

    Comment by Surfnut — September 20, 2012 @ 3:18 pm

    Real significant difference there!

    Obama’s cratering. Start looking for work.

  91. Marv says:

    #82 bio mom,

    I wrote #88 before I saw your #82.

  92. Mr.Vito says:

    Adrian, Michigan -wikipedia

    “Adrian is also served by radio and television signals from Ann Arbor, TOLEDO, and Jackson, and some Detroit broadcasters can also be seen or heard in parts of the area.”

    RUH ROH!

    Apparently Polaris gets two….

  93. Dylan says:

    Couple of observations that get filed in my “gut feel” department:

    1. Not trying to be a “concern troll” but I really was expecting shock and awe from Romney on the ad blitz. I just “feel” now the same way I felt in 1996 with Dole and 2008 with McCain (which is “c’mon, we’re behind, I need to see some fire”, and just not seeing it) I’d feel a lot better about R&R’s chances if they camped the hell out in the battleground states and did 2-3 events PER day from now til the election. It would no doubt be tiring for them, but running for president is a young man’s game. Just blast it–you can sleep when you are dead.

    2. Never a good optic to have a campaign shake-up this close to the election but better late than never. I never cared for Pawlenty. He was a milquetoast governor, he paved the way for a FAR left democratic successor, he did NOT fight for Coleman to win the election and he essentially gave us Obamacare by “allowing” Franken to steal that seat. Totally ineffective guy–get him out of there, see ya, BUH, bye. GFY, Pawlenty–what, you couldn’t have ridden it out????

    3. I think Romney and Ryan need to CALL OUT LOUDLY the meme that their campaign is somehow imploding. I know you don’t usually release internals, but i think they need to give their core supporters some red meat. I for one am having some iron deficiency right now in CA–I need meat.

  94. bio mom says:

    June is a troll who publishes false North Carolina polls as if they were real. Ignore her.

  95. Polaris says:

    #85 If I were ONLY going by the polling data, I’d agree and call VA iffy. But in the case of VA I have more info then that, and I told you that that determining a model is as much an art as a science in polling.

    What I have are REAL NC vote totals rolling in that I can compare vote for vote and time-stamp by time-stamp to real 2008 totals. That is more than enough to give me some strong early indicators regarding trends.

    Here are the trends I am seeing:

    Youth vote will be WAY down perhaps as much as 1/3rd to 1/2 as much as 2008.

    Dem vote will be suprised…perhaps as much as 2010 levels…but that is not the assumption I am making. Still the drop in the registered D early vote in NC from 2008 to 2010 is stiking and if you are a Dem should be alarming.

    Finally, I not that NC has extremely similiar trends and demographics to VA and both on a census basis have been going blue…but it’s the registered votes that are eligible and the registered votining roll changes in VA since 2008 have entirely favored the GOP.

    Thus I feel good about VA. Not great but decent.


  96. DW says:

    MD – Do you have the results ready yet for our regularly scheduled poll of PA?

  97. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    Marv, I see you’ve moved ahead to 1993.

  98. bio mom says:


    No American president has lost an election by being against the Palestinians.

  99. Rupert says:

    I’m sure this has been discussed, but how much better was R turnout in 2010 than predicted?

  100. Pitchaboy says:

    June this is September. And your boss pulled out of NC. Perhaps they polled dead people.

  101. Polaris says:

    #102 Almost everyone predicted GOP victories in VA in 2010, but IIRC (and those that have archives please correct me if I get this wrong) but IIRC the GOP performed nearly 10 points better than expected in VA.


  102. jason says:

    I guess we shouldn’t be so hard on surfnut.

    With no prospect for a job, the thought of life on handouts seems very attractive.

  103. Phil says:


    When’s the Iranian nuke test over Tel Aviv?

  104. John says:

    New presidential poll Obama 46 Romney 43
    (Dems +8)

    Internals here:

    Go down to the bottom of the first page…

    Battleground poll with a small sample:
    Romney 47 Obama 41

  105. janz says:

    I agree bio mom that it will be a turn-out election. But, there is a continuous mountain of democratic and MSM flak/BS to battle on the way to November.

  106. Robbie says:

    Jay Cost offers a very good path forward for the Romney campaign, but Romney and his advisors have sought, time after time, to avoid specifics.

    According to Politico, the Romney campaign now believes it must provide specifics so I see that as good news.

    Still, it’s up to Romney to prove he can follow through on his course correction. Time after time this summer, his campaign has been unable to push a storyline for more than three days or so.

  107. Polaris says:

    #106 Could we get the Iranians to test it over smurfnet’s house instead? Sorry that was mean….


  108. June says:

    He never pulled out of NC, wth are you smoking ????

  109. Polaris says:

    #107 If Obama is only leading by three with a D+8 poll, I’ll take it!


  110. middle of the roader says:

    Well, with Polaris we are back to the 2008 meme that he knows better how to put together a sample than Rasmussen, Pew, Fox, Wall Street Journal

    I’ll still with the pros for now.

  111. June says:

    Ummmm, it is a real poll .

  112. Polaris says:

    #111 How much have you heard out of NC from EITHER party lately June?


    There is a reason for this. Only Jensen seriously thinks NC is actually in play. The real NC early vote totals speak for themselves. If the trends continue, I can honestly say that Romney wins NC by double digits.


  113. DW says:

    104 – In VA_09 for instance, even the GOP Internal poll that was released showed a tied race in October. The GOP candidate won by five. SUSA had the GOP candidate down TEN points in MID OCTOBER, and polled in late oct to get only a 1 point GOP lead.

  114. Polaris says:

    #113 Actually I am using Rasmussen’s model MOR…and Gallup’s if you use his LV screen (which he has but isn’t using to report his polls…yet). In 2008 I thought that Ras was wrong…and that was a mistake on my part.

    Unless you REALLY think this is 2008 redux, then most of the polls are wrong because that assumption is built into the demographics of most of the polls. It really is that simple.


  115. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
    Mitt Romney (R) 45%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51.9/47.6

    I am using a R+3 sample

  116. Polaris says:

    #119 And that’s an RV poll too. Shows how trashy the original demographic blend was.


  117. janz says:

    No American president has lost an election by being against the Palestinians.

    However, bio mom, Romney’s unedited statement was neither for or against the Palestinians. When completed it stated the obvious, that the US had to maintain a strong stance in their policies and wait for the Palestinians to come to the peace table when they were ready — rather than running after them. It’s a nice nod of understanding what happened to the Camp David Accord from which Arafat walked from — a big disappointment to Clinton.

  118. rdelbov says:

    We just need our trolls (concern and otherwise) to scream another blue poll as Obama leads 46-43 in another national poll. +8D D/R/I

    Romney leads by 7% among indies.

    To those folks who believe Romney is behind Obama I say +8D poll model and 7% lead among indies.

    Folks this race is a pure D tossup.

  119. John says:

    Reuters/Ipsos poll

    Obama 48 Romney 43

    (Dems +11)

    You have to oversample Dems by 11 to get Obama a 5 point lead?

    Are you kidding me?

  120. DW says:

    Ben Romney…no need to recalibrate all those yougov polls. Not even RCP is using them. They are dated now anyways, and were not LV.

  121. sickofdems says:

    This tonysoprano troll is a joke.

    I play in poker games on a regular basis in Toledo proper.

    The guy that runs them has satellite and over the air via the antenna and we are able to very clearly pull in Detroit stations….channels 2,4 and 7 which are all the major networks.

    Frickin moron.

  122. Phil says:

    If some of these trolls think 0bama has NC gameplan, they’re ignorant of the events on the ground there.

  123. Polaris says:

    #123 D+11? They aren’t even trying to show reality anymore. They are trying to shape it.


  124. Polaris says:

    #125 Thanks for the ground view. I based my original comment on the geographic proximity of Population centers of MI and Northern Ohio. Nice to see it confirmed. Thanks.


  125. John says:

    Update for the UCONN poll – scroll down and click on the data for internals…

  126. DW says:

    I cringe whenever I see, no president has ever been re-elected when…___________________ fill in the blank. There have only ever been what, 56 presidental elections, a database small enough to find all sorts of ‘stats.’

    For instance, of the six previous presidents whose last name had only five letters, just one, Grant, finished a second term. So What.

  127. middle of the roader says:

    Even Ras has Romney down nationally and in VA.

    We’ll see. Right now, Romney is down a little, but it ain’t over. Polls mean little until after the first debate. That’s the next (and maybe final) marker.

  128. Polaris says:

    #126 Compare the early vote totals and demographics in NC today with those of the same period four years ago. That should destroy any notion that Obama will win NC. Like I said, if the trends I saw continue, Obama loses NC badly (probably in low double digits).


  129. DW says:

    128 – Oh yeah, my brother used to live just west of Toledo along the Maumee River, and he was a big Detroit Tigers fans, watched games on TV and listened to radio of games.

  130. Polaris says:

    #131 You didn’t read that Ras VA poll very closely did you? If you did, you would have found that when you plugged in the internals ALL the undecided vote was republican.

    That doesn’t bode well for Obama in VA.


  131. June says:

    Early voting doesn’t start here until October 18th !! Wth ??

  132. Greymarch says:

    Holy crap! Obama just said that ” “The most important lesson I’ve learned is you can’t change Washington from the inside.”

    Obama is the president of the United States! He is the “inside”! If he can’t change things as president, then he failed! Obama just admitted that his presidency is a failure.

  133. Polaris says:

    #135 WALK IN early voting doesn’t start until then June. Look up the GMU early voting site. NC early voting has already begun. Read it and weep.


  134. Dylan says:

    Why doesn’t Romney focus on the potential loss of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency? I LOVE that issue. I think it would resonate. And Ryan could run with it too. Just surprised they aren’t “packaging” that issue up better. It’s a winner.

  135. Phil says:

    NC isn’t going Obama.

    Romney by 3 to 5. End of story.

  136. Robbie says:

    130.I cringe whenever I see, no president has ever been re-elected when…___________________ fill in the blank. There have only ever been what, 56 presidental elections, a database small enough to find all sorts of ‘stats.’

    For instance, of the six previous presidents whose last name had only five letters, just one, Grant, finished a second term. So What.

    Comment by DW — September 20, 2012 @ 3:43 pm

    Please send this post to Stuart Stevens. His whole strategy on this election is based on the fact since it hasn’t happened before, it can’t happen now.

  137. Polaris says:

    #138 It’s too cerebral for the average voter. I know what a disaster it would be. So to most others here, but the average Joe on the street would say, “So what?” Explaining it would be beyond the scope of a thirty second soundbite.


  138. DW says:

    137 – here is the link so its easy for him:

  139. Dylan says:

    136–That’s wishful spin. What he “meant” is,he needs an army of socialist robots to seize control of the means of production and help him impose “redistributive change” from the outside. See????? It’s all consistant with how he rolls. . . . . .

  140. Wobles says:

    Oh no!!!!

    Tim Kaine had a horrible debate.

  141. Polaris says:

    #139 You are lowballing Phil….that’s almost painful to watch.


  142. middle of the roader says:

    By the way, I agree that NC is in the Romney win circle. But, it’s important from the Dem POV to keep fighting there for two reasons:

    1. Drain Romney’s resources a bit
    2. As a way to keep fighting for the state down the road. Just like Dukakis did with Bush in 2008, he got close in California, Vermont, Michigan, Penn and other states. It lead to a shift in the Red-Blue state map, just as Reagan had done the other way in 80 & 84.

  143. June says:

    This has just been mail in ballots , one stop early voting begins 10/18, and it will be heavily Democratic . Obama is still running ads here , and Michelle Obama was just here yesterday .

  144. Robbie says:

    Sean Trende tweeted earlier today if Romney can raise his number 1.5 points across the board, most of the close states move his way.

    Here’s the problem though. So far this year, Romney has been higher than 45.5% in the RCP average just twice. The first time occured in early May and the second occured just after the RNC.

  145. middle of the roader says:

    Er….Dukakis in 1988!

  146. Polaris says:

    #146 But Obama isn’t fighting Romney for NC. How much have your really heard of EITHER candidate in NC?

    Pretty much nothing. That tells the tale along with the early vote trends (when compared with the same early vote in 2008 for the same period of time).


  147. John says:

    Must read for those that have been freaking out lately…

    Read the whole thing – it takes just of minute or so.

  148. rdelbov says:

    I see we today between the UCONN poll and Ipsos the polling picture boiled down to its essence

    Ipsos +11D polling poll 48-43
    UCONN +8D polling poll 49-46

    How about making it about +3D? Depending whether you UCONN or Ipsos raw numbers you get +2 or +3 for Romney.

  149. Pitchaboy says:

    If you can’t make 50 with D plus 11 you cannot be rescued.

  150. Polaris says:

    #148 When half (or more) of the polls use D+7 models for national polls like it’s 2008, it’s almost impossible to get a clear picture without tearning apart each poll.


  151. Dylan says:

    141—-Admittedly, it’s an “art” but I think it could be done. Using monopolymoney as a prop. Voice over “imagine you wake up one day and the rest of the world no longer accepts dollars, that they are only as good as monopoly money. That can easily happen if we have one failed bond auction. With the fed as the only buyer of our debt. . . ” You know what, Polaris, you are correct, Americans are too stupid to understand this basic issue of economics.

  152. DW says:

    141–yeah, its like trying to explain to someone how much a Trillion is. Even Biden doesn’t know, as he recently gaffed talking about all the TRILLIONAIRES out there.

    The way I like to explain how much 3 trillion is, is to say you were going to hire someone for the ludicrous salary of $1 per second. $60 per minute. $3,600 per hour! Then I ask them, it shouldn’t take long at that rate to pay out 3 Trillion, right?

    And they always bobble their heads and affirm. Then I tell them you would have to hire the person for 100,000 years to pay him 3 trillion at that rate.

    I am tempted to want Romney or Ryan to try that in a debate, but its too cerebral for this electorate that can barely handle 1+1=2

  153. Brandon says:

    I’m not seeing the same thing at all in the early vote in NC. The only numbers reported now are mail-in ballots.

    2008 mail-in ballots:

    Republicans: 53.7%
    Democrats: 30.0%

    2012 mail-in ballots so far:

    Republicans: 43.7%
    Democrats: 37.9%

  154. rdelbov says:

    Sobbie Robbie RCP average includes all of those trashy polls fella. You are living in a +8 or +11 D poll model by following RCP numbers.

    Notice how our concern troll loves RCP average but refuses to look at polls except in one way.

    Red polls need to be ignored or considered in light of RCP.

    Blue polls are right.

  155. Dylan says:

    How did we get to be the greatest/richest country in the world with an electorate that was so stupid? I have a hard time seeing how big corporations build themselvs from the ground up when the average employee is so brain dead. It is just astounding.

  156. middle of the roader says:

    North Carolina. The First Lady was campaigning there this week. And, According to this September 17 piece:

    The NC spending has been: “North Carolina where Obama has only outspent Romney $17.4 million to $10.8 million”

    And, they did hold the Convention there.

  157. Pitchaboy says:

    I must agree with Brandon. Those are mail in votes and R does better usually.

  158. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
    Mitt Romney (R) 46%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 49.7/46.7

  159. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
    Mitt Romney (R) 42%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50.7/47.9

  160. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
    Mitt Romney (R) 40%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51.2/47.2

  161. Brandon says:

    CNN Nevada poll has Obama 49-Romney 46.

  162. Pitchaboy says:

    Ben what party ID are u using for FL and IA

  163. Wobles says:

    The you can’t change DC from the inside gaffe is on Drudge.

  164. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
    Mitt Romney (R) 43%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 48.4/48

    Dean Heller (R-inc) 42%
    Shelley Berkley (D) 35%

  165. DW says:

    165 – wow, they couldn’t do better for Obama in a state Romney doesn’t really need to win?

  166. Polaris says:

    #160 The first lady really doesn’t count.

    #157 The GMU and NC SOS is reporting a LOT more than that.

    From the GMU site (from the NC SOS):


    18-29 7.0%
    30-44 12.5%
    45-59 19.6%
    60+ 60.9%


    White 83.0%
    Black 12.9%

    Forget the Partisan numbers (the SOS site has glitched again today anway…did yesterday too). Look at the Young and AA vote.

    IT IS CRATERED compared with 2008


  167. Michael says:

    @165 that is one state that is coming closer to Romney in the midst of all of this dem polling.

  168. Brandon says:

    You’re comparing in person voting to mail-in voting again. Two completely different things.

  169. voice of reason says:

    Only 2,000 or so ballots returned in NC so far. Let’s wait a bit on the turnout. Although from D+11 to R+6 is an eye opener.

  170. Brandon says:

    But you’re the almighty genius, so I’ll just let you keep on repeating that for 100 more comments on this thread.

  171. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%
    Mitt Romney (R) 46%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 48.9/47.6

    Pat McCrory (R) 48%
    Walter Dalton (D) 32%

  172. W.PA Observer says:

    Also- yougov’s sampling truly is ify for the states– they have Obama leading the Panhandle in Florida by 4- but under their sample if Romney gets the same number of GOP votes as O gets of Dems, Romney will lead. For some reason in Wisconsin gen-x’ers (30-45 year olds are more pro Obama than young people). Though Romney leads with Indies, so if he gets the same level of GOP support as O does dems, he wins there too.


  173. Brandon says:

    “As of this Wednesday, registered Republicans finally outnumbered registered Democrats among returned ballots accepted by North Carolina election officials by 5.9 percentage points (43.7% to 37.9%). In previous days, more registered Democrats had returned mail ballots than registered Republicans, by 4.5 percentage points (43.3% to 38.8%). In 2008, registered Republicans vastly outnumbered registered Democrats among all mail ballots — not all early voters — by 25.7 percentage points (53.7% to 30.0%)”

    “As of Wednesday, domestic civilian absentee ballot requests outpaced overseas civilian requests by about 44K, and registered Republicans constitute about 5K more among domestic civilian requests, so expect the percentage of registered Republicans to increase in coming days as domestic civilians make up a larger proportion of returned ballots.

    Remember when making North Carolina comparisions to 2008 that early voting in-person voting has not started yet. 87% of 2008 early voters cast in-person early ballots, and registered Democrats were a larger percentage of these voters.”

  174. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    So the fact that Democrats are doing better and Republicans are doing worse… that’s irrelevant?

    But, the fact that young people aren’t inclined to use regular mail…. that’s the important part.

  175. Mr.Vito says:

    It’s too early to conclude much of anything from the gmu site…

  176. DW says:

    172 – in addition to IA NH and CO

  177. Pitchaboy says:

    As much as I hate it, Brandon is right. Even in 2008, R led with mail ins. We will know more when actual in person voting starts

  178. Brandon says:

    It’s early enough to realize that they are only counting mail-in ballots so far and Republicans won those by 23.7% in ’08 so you expect them to be ahead.

  179. middle of the roader says:

    Re: VIRGINIA. Today WaPo has an article about a monster 19 pt. gap in the Women’s vote. And, it notes that this has increased in the last few years.

  180. Polaris says:

    #173 Not entirely and you can compare time stamp to time stamp. If you do you find that the Young and AA votes have CRATERED. Obama loses NC badly. Perhaps as badly as low double digits.


  181. Brandon says:

    It’s like talking to a freaking brick wall.

  182. rdelbov says:

    There are so many ways to look at NC early voting.

    In NC the D’s are pushing mail in absentee ballots (as they are in Iowa and other states) because its clear that D voters will not drag themselves to the polls as they did in 2008.

    The GOP in Iowa and NC are pushing in person voting as its more reliable. You get a voter to the polls and he votes. You mail someone an absentee ballot and some do not get returned.

    The big news in mail in absentees in NC is that total numbers appear to be down ofr

  183. Polaris says:

    #184 You do realize that almost all of that comes from young unmarried women, right?


  184. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
    Mitt Romney (R) 44%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 47.9/47.2

    Tim Kaine (D) 43%
    George Allen (R) 42%

  185. MD says:

    The NC poll 448 RV’s.

    Martin Kifer who runs the firm was a legislative assistant to Baron Hill.

  186. Brandon says:

    Thanks Pitch. It’s plain to see to anyone that can read.

  187. Dylan says:

    188—those young unmarried woman would do just fabulous under sharia law when it gets imposed here in Hussein’s 2nd term. . . . . .

  188. Uncle Salty says:

    Romney has survived.


  189. ctyplekfii says:

    Z0MJLT jwrjtdkhkjdp, [url=]dzgxybhdsfcv[/url], [link=]oktvvcxggogq[/link],

  190. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    What this all means, Polaris, is that not only are Democrats doing better in NC mail in ballots than they did in 2008, but it means that they are doing better with a sample that is old and white.

    So, the young and black vote is still out there.

    And, your take on this, is that it all looks great for Romney.

  191. DW says:

    not sure why all the fuss about the yougov polls. Sample sizes are all over the place, its RV and its dated now. Many of these states have been polled four or five times SINCE these yougov polls were conducted.

  192. Brandon says:

    You can’t question Polaris even when he’s horribly wrong. You know better than that Cory.

  193. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    Red polls in Iowa.

    Tee hee

  194. Walt says:

    Praise Jesus.

    On a personal level regarding son, great results but I will not discuss.
    Prayer and positive outlook works.

    As for all the hand-wringing, cliff-jumping, toss in the towel throwing bull ‘shipping’ nay saying that a number of you are doing–


    You need a good Internet slap.
    Don’t succumb to MSM induced panic.

    Look at Rdelbov–

    We need to stay firm.
    Lots of election days to play out.

    Lots and lots.

  195. MD says:

    195 – I don’t think we can draw any conclusions based on this data. Way too small.

    I will say this – the Romney camp better be prepared to go 24/7 from this point forward. Not as bad as Carly going dark in CA when she actually had momentum but not good either. I want to see a lot more.

  196. MD says:


    Rdel isn’t objective though by his own admission because of his tax situation. That is why, though I like him, I have to discount his analysis.

  197. Ted O says:

    Hopefully no one else posted this most current Drudge link:

    Obama’s latest gaffe in which he says you can ‘fix’ Washington from the Inside. The gifts (gaffes)keep coming!

  198. RB says:

    Apparently Obama stepped in it a bit by saying ‘You can’t change Washington from the inside’. It is on Drudge, NRO, Weekly Standard, and is being tweeted about. You can decide for yourself if it means anything.

  199. Brandon says:

    You also can’t compare mail-in balloting to in-person early voting, yet someone keeps doing that and won’t admit that they’re wrong.

  200. Dylan says:

    200—Three rallies PER DAY in the swing states, plus release of favorable internals to mollify the base PLUS aggressive speeches. THAT is what it will take. They can rest when they are dead. No more fundraisers.

  201. Ben Romney says:

    Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
    Mitt Romney (R) 46%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 48.9/47.6

    Tommy Thompson (R) 48%
    Tammy Baldwin (D) 42%

  202. Walt says:

    Oh, and I heard MD complain that Mr. Vito was one of the 47%ers.

    MD’s actual words were: “He just takes and takes and takes, contributes NOTHING around here to help pay the bills.”

  203. DW says:

    MD – did your team finish the PA poll for today?

  204. Polaris says:

    We can compare like to like. I am trying to track it down, but even in the mail in part of the early vote, the youth and AA vote seems to be down in NC. WAY down. The way to compare is by time-stamp to time-stamp (and in sep of 2008 all the early ballots were mail in as well).

    As for the rest the NC poll is suspect and an RV regardless.


  205. DW says:

    209 – and as I keep pointing out, the YouGov poll is OLD. Out of date. Just because someone holds an old poll and releases it now doesn’t make it relevant.

  206. GPO says:

    u guys see the guy behind the plate in Wrigley

    warning some may be offended- no nudity but sexual in nature

  207. Greymarch says:

    #205: The last thing Romney’s team should do is release internal poll numbers, no matter how favorable they may be. It reeks of desperation. Campaigns release internal poll numbers when they are losing. McCain tried it, Kerry tried it, Dole tried it, etc. No one buys it.

    I think Romney is in decent shape right now. I think it’s tied or Romney is slightly behind, but for god sake’s the last thing Romney wants to do is anything that would be construed as desperate.

    @Greymarch (on twitter)

  208. rdelbov says:

    brandon the comparisons are kinda pointless. In NC the D’s pushed their voters to vote in person in 2008. The GOP pushed absentee by mail in 2008.

    This year the D’s are mailing out and giving application forms for requesting absentees.

    So the numbers of requests and returns for absentees will be skewed relative to 2008. The mail in absentees also started a week earlier in NC in 2008 if I recall correctly.

    2008 to 2012 comparisons are just not meaningful.

  209. MD says:

    Finishing touches DW.

  210. GA Voter says:

    Confirmed! Obama knew it was a terrorist attack when he watched the draped caskets arrive. AND he was calling it film rage. Obama and Hilary LIED over dead caskets for their political gain.


  211. Phil says:

    Obama and McCain were essentially tied in 2008. Unless you expect the national vote to be another O plus 7.2 blowout, Obama won’t win NC.

    It won’t.

    Not worried about that state.

    Move on.

  212. June says:

    Yet another NC poll just released by Elon, showing Obama pulling ahead now as well…wow

    Obama 48
    Romney 45

  213. gold price says:

    YouGov interviewed nearly 44,000 people in December, after which my collaborator, John Sides, and I interviewed 1,000 people from the original set every week beginning Jan. 1. (We’ll keep it up through Election Day.) Thirty-seven weeks into the year, and with only 47 days left until Nov. 6, how many of those initially undecided voters are still up in the air? How do the previously undecided voters choose sides? And do people ever change their minds during the campaign once they’ve made a choice?

  214. silver price says:

    Withdrawal from the European Union is a right of European Union (EU) member states under TEU Article 50 : “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.” No state has ever withdrawn, though some dependent territories or semi-autonomous areas have left. Of these, only Greenland has explicitly voted to leave, departing from the EU’s predecessor, the European Economic Community (EEC), in 1985. No member state has ever held a national referendum on withdrawal from the European Union , though in 1975 the United Kingdom held a national referendum on withdrawal from its predecessor, the EEC; 67.2% of voters chose to remain in the Community.

  215. silver price says:

    Mr. Obama’s results have been more varied among polling firms that use different methodologies. A series of polls in eleven swing states, released on Thursday by the online firm YouGov, were fairly strong for Mr. Obama, putting him ahead among likely voters in all of the states except North Carolina.