Obama Leads in NV, WI and MI

A busy day of state polls continues. CNN and Opinion Research continue with their series of state polls with a new poll from Nevada showing a 3% race between Romney and Obama.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

This poll was done September 14-18 among 741 likely voters. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling put out a poll for the state of Wisconsin claiming Obama has a 7% lead there.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

This poll was done September 18-19 among 824 likely voters. Finally for now, Glengariff Group has a new poll for he state of Michigan claiming Obama has a double-digit lead.

Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 38%

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc) 50%
Pete Hoekstra (R) 34%

This poll was done September 15-17 among 600 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 4:23 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (169)

169 Responses to “Obama Leads in NV, WI and MI”

  1. janz says:

    I’m listening to an interview with Bob Woodward, dealing with his book Price of Politics. He describes Tim Geithner’s unheeded cautionary advice to Obama that he better address the upcoming ‘fiscal cliff’ problems as they may result in a depression worse than the one in the 1930’s.

    Another scene revealed by Woodward, was the crumbing of the Grand Deal between Boehner and Obama last summer. Apparently even Harry Reid took an aide with him to chastise the president for not having a Plan B, after things imploded with Boehner. It was the aide, though, and not Reid who had this conversation with Obama, showing what Woodward defined as evidence what poor relationships Obama has developed between not only leaders on the right, but also with his own democratic leaders.

    And, what is it about this guy that we want for another 4 years?

  2. SusyQue says:

    This race will be a triumph of sheer grit!

  3. rdelbov says:

    +6 D blend of voters in Nevada’s CNN poll. Ouch by registration its about 4% or so D(if I remember correctly)so CNN finds some D passion?
    Still Romney leads among indies so NV is a pure tossup IMO.

  4. INDIA PAPA 727 says:


  5. W.PA Observer says:

    3- yes according to the latest polls, Nevada is straight tossup.

    What’s the word on PPP Wisconsin polls, what’s the sample there? I’d rather not read Jensens bull if I can avoid it.

  6. W.PA Observer says:

    That being said, can we all just calm down a bit PLEASE. See what the trackers say from here– if the election were today and Ras’s numbers were used, O would probably eke out a win. If the election were today and Gallup’s today mode was used, Romney would probably win. On swing state polls, all over the place.

  7. RB says:

    Apparently Obama stepped in it a bit by saying ‘You can’t change Washington from the inside’. It is on Drudge, NRO, Weekly Standard, and is being tweeted about. You can decide for yourself if it means anything.

  8. RB says:

    CNN has VA 50/44 and OH49/44

    The key here is the dates. OH 9/9-9/18
    VA 9/12-9/17…this would be in line of picking up the post convention bounce.

  9. W.PA Observer says:

    As for campaign stops, today the Republicans are stopping in Iowa and Wisconsin.

  10. Big Joe says:

    PPP has had a tough year polling WI.

  11. W.PA Observer says:

    They’re using the “Poll of Polls” aka the average of Media polls, not a new one.

  12. W.PA Observer says:

    9. and by Republicans I mean Ann Romney. Mitt’s campaigning in Florida right now.

  13. Emerica says:

    Club for Growth sets its top target for 2014: John McCain’s partner in crime!

  14. pitchaboy says:

    Remember R goes in tonight leading on RAS and Gallup over last two and six days respectively.

  15. Polaris says:

    #11 Yep, it’s more of the RCP trash. You put trash in an polling average and the result is trash.


  16. GPO says:

    .u guys see the guy behind the plate in Wrigley

    warning some may be offended- no nudity but sexual in nature

  17. DW says:

    interesting that WAA had Obama up 6 in PA, and Susquehenna had it tied. Anxiously awaiting on Paladin/CFP’s numbers provided shortly by MD. I predict we will see Obama up by 5 or 6.

  18. GPO says:

    Romney advisers have been mostly mum about debate preparation, which has been held sporadically in rural Vermont over the past few weeks. But I keep hearing one takeaway from those who are close to the sessions: Senator Rob Portman of Ohio is an ace, and he has challenged Romney more than Romney expected, which has pleased the governor. Portman’s Obama impressions and his ability to get rather aggressive with the Republican nominee have enthused Romney. Sources say Romney absolutely hates being badgered, but Portman’s task has been to boost Romney’s confidence and thicken his skin.

  19. W.PA Observer says:

    From what I’m seeing in twitter- ads, it looks like O gift-wrapped Romney a host of ads and lines over, “You can’t change Washington from inside, only outside.” considering Romney is the only person on either ticket whose career is not Washington-oriented.

  20. DW says:

    But a larger Obama lead in PA wouldn’t surprise me either…MD’s team has their finger on the pulse of PA.

  21. Emerica says:

    Tom Davis statement on Graham. He may run in a primary challenge to get rid of him.

    The Club for Growth’s decision to target Lindsey Graham in 2014 is hardly surprising. I mean, just look at his record. He voted on numerous occasions to raise the debt ceiling without any corresponding entitlement reforms or spending cuts; supported the taxpayer-funded bailout of Wall Street banks; worked with John Kerry for global warming legislation and centralized control of the energy industry; promoted illegal immigration amnesty; lobbied for the confirmation of liberal justices like Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan; and, just recently, proposed new taxes to prop up more government spending. When Sen. Graham says everything he’s doing is ‘completely opposite of where the Tea Party movement’s at,’ and when he says ‘free speech is a great idea,’ and then supports gags on free speech, well, then he ought to expect strong opposition from those who believe that individual liberty and economic freedom is the very essence of what our nation is, or at least what it once was.

  22. rdelbov says:

    poll of polls give marguette +14 some weight!!!

    sob sob what trash.

  23. steve craft says:

    Romney rising!

  24. Emerica says:

    Romney is such a bad candidate, I can honestly see him hurting the GOP in down senate races as well this year in a year the GOP should winning those races.

  25. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    Anybody know what the makeup is of the 66 or 67 Senate seats that aren’t up for election this year?

  26. Patk says:

    How is what Obama said supposed to be a gaffe. It sounds like he said exactly what he meant to say. And when you hear the entire quote, he says that major things don’t happen from inside Washington, but by people being mobilized outside of Washington….. now such mobilization may or may not help Obama. That is yet to be determined.

  27. Walt says:


    in the “no tossup” map they give every tossup to YoMama…

    Except they do actually give NC to Romney.

    I bet that is painful for them.

  28. DW says:

    24 – strange…was just talking to a die hard Ron Paul supporter yesterday who said he would not even take money to vote for Romney even though he despises Obama. And even HE was saying that Romney would be without a doubt a big improvement, and he was surprised how decent of a campaign he was running.

  29. DW says:

    26 – Hello…OBAMA IS A WASHINGTON INSIDER, and his opponent, has never held office in Washington, making him an OUTSIDER. So by Obama’s own admission, Romney is the way to go in this election to solve Washington’s problems, because Obama cannot do it–BY HIS OWN ADMISSION. The ads write themselves.

  30. Polaris says:

    Current Active Voter Registration numbers for NV:

    Total Active Voters: 1,112,236
    Dems: 463,229
    GOP: 407,513
    Ind/Non-Partisan: 186,941

    Registration DRI: 41/26/17

    Based on sheer registration, D+6 unfortunately seems fair.

    However, in 2008 the DRI of Nevada was only D+8. Thus this poll seems to be 2008ish but not aggregiously so. I can believe that Nev is a push right now.


  31. Emerica says:

    I don’t watch CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc nor do I read any mainstream news.

    I tuned this race out long ago so any news of the race I get is probably from the Dailyshow.

  32. MD says:

    Cory – check out the senate elections for 14. Not good news for the Marxists.

  33. steve craft says:

    24 — I don’t think Romney is a bad candidate, but if he loses, Jindal is the answer in 2016.

  34. janz says:

    #18 GPO

    I’ve heard similar tidbits about Portman’s help in preparing Romney. Toughening up his skin is a good practice, as you just know the moderators will not be on Romney’s side, and Obama is a master of the glib retort.

  35. Polaris says:

    For what it is worth Nevada in 2010 was D+2. I think D+4 is probably a fair place to model Nevada on first approximation.


  36. patsfaninpittsburgh says:



    A gov’t dude says that?

    You can’t comprehend what the rhetorical question should be?

    Brains are available and authorized.

  37. Patk says:

    The part right after Obama talking about not being able to change Washington from the inside might have hurt him a little……

    He turned and started pointing fingers saying it was the audience’s fault for not doing enough to make change happen. And that he was sick and tired of all of them.

  38. rdelbov says:

    Polaris by registration NV is about 5%D. In Nov 2008 is was closer to 8% D by registration. So there has been movement to the R side.

    Yet in a state with party ID the shift in 2012 should be a bit more then 3%

    The poll is not off much IMO but maybe two or three %.

  39. rdelbov says:

    Okay +4 or +3D for NV would be cool

  40. Ben Romney says:

    Ben what party ID are u using for FL and IA

    Comment by Pitchaboy — September 20, 2012 @ 4:01

    I have FL D+1 and IA R+3

  41. DW says:

    either way, the key is, Nevada is in play, and wasn’t impacted by the drat convention.

  42. W.PA Observer says:

    I’d also like to see something made of the Letterman Clip where Obama doesn’t know the national debt- hammer him in the Midwest with that.

  43. Polaris says:

    About the senate races, of the 33 seats up for election, they are currently being held by 21 Dems, 10 GOP, 2 Indies.

    Given the current Senate is 53D/47R, that means the seats not up for election in 2012 comprise 32D/37R

    Essentially the GOP is spotted a five seat lead on election day in the senate. The Dems have to win at least five more thant the GOP to maintain control. (Actually three since the Indies will caucus with the Dems.)


  44. Polaris says:

    #44 Almost forgot:



  45. Polaris says:

    #39 Right but it’s a MOE difference which is why I am willing to cut it some slack.


  46. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    I don’t think Romney is a bad candidate, but if he loses, Jindal is the answer in 2016.

    Comment by steve craft —

    It way be far too late by then to save the republic. The only thing jindal can do by then is to turn out the lights.

  47. Wobles says:

    Obama also refused to answer a question about the lack of security at the Libyan consulate.

  48. Polaris says:

    #47 Agree. Obama gets reelected and we are one failed bond auction from hitting the rocks.


  49. Patk says:

    Christie in 2016!!!

  50. janz says:

    Measuring undecideds, as seen by Jim Geraghty.

    Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Bill McInturff conducted the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and isolated the respondents whom they classified as “up for grabs” — either undecided or leaning only slightly to one of the candidates. Several demographic indicators suggest that the remaining voters are ripe for the picking for Romney: 68 percent are white, 57 percent are married, 53 percent are men, 70 percent think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and 60 percent disapprove of how Obama is doing his job.

  51. Robbie says:

    According to the Washington Post, Romney has just $50.4 million in the bank.

  52. MD says:

    Not saying anything against Jindal but we have a ton of Non-Santorum, Non-Newt people who are extremely attractive. Santorum would win Pa! Lol! Am I allowed to call the retards?

  53. Polaris says:

    #51 Geez, that almost screams ‘unaffiliated Republican’ to me…or more to the point dissaffected Santorum supporter. This confirms the result that Rasmussen was persistantly getting in his state polling:

    The undecided voter is overwhelmly a conserative married republican who can’t (or won’t) admit that he will pull the lever for Romney.

    If that is accurate, then expect the undecideds to break overwhelmingly to Romney….IF they vote. It would be in Romney’s best interest to make it as easy as possible for these “undecided” voters to vote.


  54. W.PA Observer says:

    52- I don’t believe that cash on hand counts the remaining RNC money (that they co-raised) that is being infused in now that the convention is past- as it’s the August report.

  55. rdelbov says:

    As a side note the Cardinals sweep the Astros to get a leg up on wildcard spot.

  56. Wobles says:

    Obama’s Univision appearance was a disaster.

  57. Polaris says:

    #58 If you have to go into a civics lesson to explain why you have failed as president, then you’ve lost the audience. *ouch* MSM will cover it up, however.


  58. W.PA Observer says:

    For example O’s fundraising occurs in tandem with the DNC- while Romney’s is raised together but technically a separate fund.

  59. Brandon says:

    Agree Patk.

  60. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    62.Brandon says:
    September 20, 2012 at 5:26 pm
    Agree Patk.

    ? agree with what?

  61. Brandon says:

    #50 obviously.

  62. W.PA Observer says:

    “At the end of July, Romney’s campaign had $30 million in the bank, but when you factor in the national party committee and a joint fundraising committee, he had a $60-plus million edge on Obama, $186 million to $124 million.” – from WaPo.

    He now has 20 million more in the bank according to August payroll, and is now hitting that advantage. I just hope the ads get to parity in short order and then supremacy by October.

  63. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    The Day the Music Died – some date back in the 50’s

    The Day HHR thre in the towel for the 2012 election – September 20, 2012

  64. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    thre = threw

  65. Wobbles says:


  66. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    50.Patk says:
    September 20, 2012 at 5:14 pm
    Christie in 2016!!!

    64.Brandon says:
    September 20, 2012 at 5:29 pm
    #50 obviously.

    -Brandon obviously teaches in a public school. Those kids go to school, and on the first day of Pre-K are told they will amount to nothing in life, unless they vote Democratic.

  67. I don’t know if anyone mentioned it but Sean Trende has an excellent article on the state of the race.

    It should give heart for the eyeores.

    To recap 1. no president has won w/o having a 5% lead two weeks after convention.
    2. incumbants lose 3+% in the weeks leading up to the election

  68. GeorgeIllinois says:

    Just like any horse race, the late money will determine the odds.

  69. Robbie says:

    The Day HHR thre in the towel for the 2012 election – September 20, 2012

    Comment by NYCmike (Bronxie) — September 20, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

    Despite my pessimism about Romney’s campaign, I haven’t thrown in the towel yet. Obama leads by 3 points or so nationally. That’s hardly an insurmountable lead.

    For now, I’m willing to see if Romney follows through on his new campaign strategy of providing more specifics and being more active on the campaign.

    If he does, he’s in the ballgame. If he just can’t get out of the rut in the next 10 to 14 days, it’s probably over.

  70. rdelbov says:

    That would be the day Buddy Holly died. Feb 2-1959 and no I did not have to google it. Yes plane crash in Iowa. Valens and the Big Bopper died as well

    Yes I still believe that Romney can win.

  71. Phil says:

    Probably a fair assessment.

  72. Polaris says:

    #70 Indeed what many forget is that Bush in 2004 has a huge lead all the way until the end of September. The race almost always narrows against the incumbant and incumbant party as the campaign progresses. This was something the Kerryites always threw in our fact in 2004 and they were right….but in 2004 it wasn’t enough for Kerry.

    In 2012 Obama leads by far less than Bush did at the same time in 2004 (the last time a president was up for reelection and coincidentally also had iffy JA numbers).


  73. addisonst says:

    The music died on feb 3 1959. Romney isn’t dead yet but he’s pining for the fjords. Obama has turned this away from a referendum and into a choice. If you don’t like intrade, try the london bookies. I can’t believe we are losing to a guy w 8 percent ue and 16 trildo in debt.

  74. rdelbov says:

    I guess Ap at 1, RAS at 2 and Gallup tied turned into a 3 point Obama lead?

    Oh how does that happen?

    RCP pixie dust?

    Yup RCP was right in Nov 2008.

    Where is there proof they were right in Sept 2008? Nowhere to be found. That fact cannot be proven or disproven. Folks who want to rely on RCP average to prove anything are just flat out quessing.

    Now are the others here guessing? Yes we rely on Gallup and RAS to give us evidence of poll D/R/I. RAS was right in 2008. So I trust RAS’s polling methods on D/R/I.

    RCP relies on the prepondence of media, partisan and University polls that have a crazy blend of D voters in polls.

    I think instead of relying on 420D-350R like PPP does I will stick to RAS’s numbers.

  75. addisonst says:

    I’ve seen obama ads on national sportscasts. None locally of course. To this date I have never seen a romney ad. Maybe he bought a bulk rate for 11/7

  76. rdelbov says:

    Classical liberal–we have discussed the article that you referenced in #70

    I guess all the D sites have missed that one.

  77. Polaris says:

    #76 I trust neither and for exactly the same reasons. They are backwards looking indicators and have no more knowledge than anyone else.

    Market analysis of political races simply doesn’t work because the market analysis (and that includes bookie odds) assumes that the collective market has information that individual buyers don’t….that’s usually true in the real market. In politics…not so much.


  78. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Romney seems to be like Cutler, eh?

  79. addisonst says:

    Polaris, I’m hoping gallup and ras are correct. But I don’t think bookies do well ii the sell even money bets at 3 to 1.

  80. Polaris says:

    #79 Given the general political leanings of people that like sports (esp football) as well as that demographic that seems like GROSSLY wasted money to me. Even more so since it was done nationally (which is very pricey).


  81. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    The masses never revolt of their own accord, and they never revolt merely because they are oppressed. Indeed, so long as they are not permitted to have standards of comparison, they never even become aware that they are oppressed.”
    ? George Orwell, 1984

  82. Robbie says:

    Kerry got back in the 2004 race almost entirely because Bush took a dump in the first debate.

  83. Polaris says:

    #84 It’s not a matter of hope. You either believe the 2008 demographics are right or you don’t. If you don’t (and there is a lot of strong reasons not to) then everyone that does is a sucker. In football betting you see suckers (esp homers for a particular team) all the time…and it’s why a good rule of thumb is to never bet on your favorite team.


  84. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.”
    George Orwell, 1984

  85. Polaris says:

    #86 Sadly there is a lot of truth to that. The most dangerous time for a country that has had a downtrodden population is NOT when things hit rock bottom. It’s when things start to get a little bit better..and suddenly people remember how bad things were/are.


  86. Marv says:

    I don’t know much about PA, but this sounds like good news. Romney may not win PA, but OH has similar voters, who tilt slightly more to the GOP.
    Comments welcome.




  87. Polaris says:

    #87 Read the article though. It’s not just 2004 but a pattern for ANY incumbant president.


  88. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    “If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face—for ever.”
    George Orwell, 1984

  89. Polaris says:

    #91 It looks suspiciously good. I’ll have to fisk it.


  90. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    “Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
    ? George Orwell, 1984

    (sounds like the demonrat party)

  91. Pitchaboy says:

    Over sampled R. O to McCain by 6 among the pool which means wishful R polling.

  92. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    “Does Big Brother exist?”
    “Of course he exists. The Party exists. Big Brother is the embodiment of the Party.”
    “Does he exist in the same way as I exist?”
    “You do not exist.”
    George Orwell, 1984

  93. Marv says:

    From the Susq. PA poll

    Obama Fav/Unfav——46/47

    Perhaps the halo effect has fallen from the Obama crown……heh, heh.

  94. rdelbov says:

    In 2008 we saw the culimination of 3 years of D’s trending upwards in voter registration stats.

    In 2012 we have see 4 years (jan 2009) of GOP gains in voter registration stats.

    Prior to 2008 we saw this upward trend and Ds hit +8 for the electorate.

    Since 2009 in state after state the GOP has gained relative to D strength.

    In CO the number has gone from even to +4.2%–a 100K GOP edge.

    In Iowa a +100D edge is now a 30K R edge (in raw numbers if I remember correctly).

    Its not just wishful thinking for Polaris and I. In state after state, not every state registers by party, the numbers have improved for the GOP.

    So its not just wishful thinking as just as we saw a D registration surge in 2006-2008 we have seen an R surge in 2009-2012.

  95. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    I get the feeling you’ve only ever read one book, IP.

  96. DW says:

    that susquehenna poll was announced yesterday, released today. They have a history of showing PA close in POTUS races.

  97. Marv says:


    Reelect Obama, or new person.

    New Person—-50

  98. W.PA Observer says:

    It’s a PA GOP internal, so take that as you will.

  99. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    From the proletarians nothing is to be feared. Left to themselves, they will continue from generation to generation and from century to century, working, breeding, and dying, not only without any impulse to rebel, but without the power of grasping that the world could be other than it is.”


  100. jason says:

    So will the MSM explore the


    I doubt it.

  101. Crymedogg says:

    Has anyone commented about the article on Drudge saying a home will be ready for the Obama’s in Hawaii? The home will be ready in January 2013?! Expected to have inhabitants…

  102. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    100.I get the feeling you’ve only ever read one book, IP.

    Comment by Cory

    It and many others comraden, while you were gumming the pages of das kapital.

  103. addisonst says:

    Polaris, I acknowledge that markets are mispriced all the time. Perhaps the smart money will come in on Mitt and lower his price. I don’t think a potus election is all that inefficient a market in this day and age. I said last week either the Ras and now gallup or intrade is divorced from reality. Hopefully you ras and gallup are right.

  104. Marv says:

    Undecided Leaners


  105. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    “It is impossible to found a civilization on fear and hatred and cruelty. It would never endure.’
    ‘Why not?’
    ‘It would have no vitality. It would disintegrate. It would commit suicide.”

    George Orwell, 1984

  106. Marv says:

    Right Track—-33
    Wrong Track—-60

  107. jason says:

    I personally would not hold much hope for the debates.

    The MSM will give Obama the questions in advance and ask him softball questions.

    Romney will get the tough argumentative questions preceded by a talking point.

    Sure Romney could do well if he is is able to use the tough questions to his advantage.

    But right after the debates, canned polls will immediately say Obama won.

  108. rdelbov says:

    Folks that PA poll looks reasonable to me.

    50-44 for 2008 election results in this poll.
    PA was 54-44 in 2008.

    So guess what? Republicans and conservatives are a bit more juiced (by 4%) to vote then democrats?

    Have we see this before in other polls? In poll after poll we have see likely voters are more R then registered voters who are more R then adults.

    We have finally seen one poll from PA that reflects that republicans and conservatives are more eager to vote then democrats. We finally see PA showing what Gallup, AP, RAS and other pollsters like SUSA and ARG are showing. Republicans are more excited then Ds.

    We see one poll from PA reflecting that fact and its a tossup.

  109. Polaris says:

    #91 Fisking to poll now. It is by a reputable firm…at least in the NE: (Susquehanna)

    DRI: 48/42/10 or D+6. This might be a tad Dem light for PA but it looks rightish. MD…you know PA better than I do, is this a good DRI for PA?

    I noticed that with the undecideds, they break evenly for both O and R, but half still are undecided (which IMHO means they likely won’t vote). I warn you though that the undecided sub-sample is very small with a requisite high margin of error (sample size of only 23) which amounts to a whopping 20% MOE for this sub-sample.

    The poll is skewed a bit to older voters but this may be reasonable this year:

    1. 18-29 72 09%
    2. 30-44 160 20%
    3. 45-59 272 34%
    4. 60+ 296 37%

    I noticed that they only claim to have voted for Obama in 2008 by +6 which implies a much more R/Conservative rich sample:

    Q21. In the last presidential election do you recall if you voted for Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain or another candidate?
    1. Obama 398 50%
    2. McCain 352 44%
    3. Other 18 02%
    4. Undecided 4 00%
    5. Didn’t vote 26 03%

    When they asked which way they voted, however (Q22) it’s D35/R34/I27 which for PA strikes me as much too GOP rich.

    Bottom line, I think that this poll probably sampled too many conservatives and people that vote republican but are registered as Dems.

    My take. I would actually move it towards Obama a bit.


  110. SusyQue says:

    We are blessed to have Drudge on our side!

  111. addisonst says:

    Polaris, when will the early vote numbers in NC be large enough to show a real trend?

  112. Polaris says:

    #112 You are assuming the debates are about debating. It’s not.

    The debates reflect Romney’s golden chance to address the American Voters WITOUT the filter of the MSM. He can’t afford to waste that IMHO.


  113. jason says:

    “I get the feeling you’ve only ever read one book, IP.”

    Funny from someone who seems to have only read The Communist Manifesto.

  114. Marv says:

    Susq/PA DRI


    MD……is this about right or did they oversample R’s and undersample Indies?

  115. Polaris says:

    #116 Walk in voting in NC begins on 18 October. I think we should see some real trends if for the total early vote on or about the 25th of October.

    I am angry because I can’t find the Mail-In ballot split for NC. (If anyone can, I’d love to have the data. I remember about what it was, but I want to see hard data). If I had the mail-in part of the early vote only, I could post some REAL trends based on real numeric comparisons (with the appropriate caveats).


  116. SusyQue says:


    RAPPERS FIGHT OVER OBAMA: ‘Needs Swing States And White People’…

  117. Pitchaboy says:

    Over sampled R by stleast 3 or 4. Call a spade a spade whether D or R

  118. Frank says:


    Susquehanna poll is D+6, but 50/44 in 2008.


  119. Polaris says:

    As I seem to recall, I think PA is particularly light on Indies. MD? That’s your neck of the woods….


  120. jason says:

    ” The debates reflect Romney’s golden chance to address the American Voters WITOUT the filter of the MSM. ”

    Oh please, surely you don’t believe that.

    Nothing will be more filtered.

    The MSM will only ask gotcha questions, “are you going to stop beating your wife”, Romney will not be allowed any chance to address the American voters except his closing 3 minute statement.

    Let’s get real.

  121. Polaris says:

    #123 Read the poll in more depth. The PA poll is D+6 for *registered* Dems but when they were asked who they voted for, it’s only D+1. When I do DRI, it’s always “self identified” DRI.

    I agree with Pitchboy. R’s (or more likely conservatives) got oversampled.


  122. Polaris says:

    #125 Other than pulling the mic away from Romney, there will be nothing between him and the American Voter (that’s watching) during the debate itself. THAT is the golden opportunity I am talking about.


  123. jason says:

    119. I think 48D is high for Dems and 42R is high for Republicans.

    I think its more like 38D/30R/22I.

    Maybe will leaners you could get closer to the poll numbers.

  124. It’s hard not being an eyeore with all the media bleating the way they are with Gaffe this and gaffe that.

    You wonder how this will affect participation. They certainly seem to think it will help Obama otherwise they wouldn’t be doing it.

    What’s keeping me afloat is the same that’s keeping many others on this site going – namely that there is no way that Obama matches his 2008 totals. Therefore the polls are skewed.

    I’m confident about NC but worried about VA. And, I’m surprised that Ohio is still so close. I thought killing the Keystone pipeline would have given Romney the boost he needed.

  125. jason says:

    ” We are blessed to have Drudge on our side!”

    I remember when Bunu said Drudge was a Paulbot….

  126. W.PA Observer says:

    PA is not going to go to Romney unless he leads nationally– it will drop in after Ohio, Iowa, NH, Colorado, WI. The simple reason is that if you do well enough in the suburbs outside of a big Dem city as large as Philadelphia to win the state, then you will have done even better in the even more Republican suburbs of smaller D cities in Ohio and elsewhere where you are already advertising as well. Think of a swingometer.

  127. Surfnut says:

    These state polls today really show what a pasting Romney is facing. Thankfully, you can pray to your mythical god in the next 47 days to save the globe from his evilness

  128. Polaris says:

    #128 Unfortunately no it doesn’t. I can get the 2008 early vote numbers from this link easy enough but unfortunately GMU tosses all the Mail-ins and Walk-ins into the same bin…and while I don’t like to admit Brandon is right on anything he IS basically correct that they are two very different things. I still think that trends could be made, but I’d need the Sept only early vote for NC OR the early vote in NC *excluding* the Walk-In vote (or Walk Ins only….because I could reconstruct the mail-ins from that).


  129. DW says:

    this susquehenna poll is what the GOP needs for all battlegrounds states…polling that tweaks just a little too much to the GOP so as to counter the feces we get from PPP(D) and other firms that do it the other way.

  130. bio mom says:

    Obama is Plus 3 in the rcpmbecause of Pew plus 8!

  131. GeorgeIllinois says:

    Romney needs to parry every question and just make his points and let the moderators fume. It’s all about how he comes across on TV not how some debating coach scores it.

    Enough people are ready to fire Obama. Romney just needs to give them a few good reasons to hire him.

  132. jason says:

    127. Except the dice will be loaded against him.

    Hostile questions, hostile audience, hostile “swing voter panels”, hostile spin, hostile pollsters.

    It would take a miracle for Romney to overcome all that and come ahead in a debate.

    If the field was level, he would kick Obama’s ass.

  133. Polaris says:

    #136 Except then the MSM will trash and discredit any pollster that does this…and who controls the political polling market? The MSM.


  134. W.PA Observer says:

    Also- Independents in PA are relatively few- as we have a strong party system- they can’t vote in primaries so it’s virtually pointless other than to make a statement. As a result there are high levels of GOP or Dem party ID. This puts us in a hole with a million registration deficit (though there are some conservative/moderate dems throughout the state that vote Republican at the state/Federal level). Among active voters it’s lower but still hard- in 2010 it was a D +3 electorate and Corbett won by 10 and Toomey by 2, 2008 was D +7. We’ll see about this year, but it’d take alot, and I think Romney would be at 270 by then.

  135. Polaris says:

    #138 Exactly right. Ignore the question (except as a convenient starting point) and talk to the American people about the problems this country has and how he will fix it. Let the moderators fume. They are NOT on your side anyway.


  136. Polaris says:

    #141 What I thought. I remember that Indies were not all that common in PA…so an I of 10 seems reasonable.


  137. Scott says:

    The High Point NC Poll has a very small sample,was taken over 10 days starting just after the Dem. Convention,was meant as a student project,is of registered voters and gives no Party ID. Trash it!

  138. Scott says:


  139. Marv says:

    Folks, Ohio is what matters when it comes to examining the Susq/PA poll….not PA. Ohio voters are a bit more GOP leaning than PA voters.

    2008 PA:


    2008 OH:


    It matters that the Susq/PA poll shows a close race in PA, even though sponsored by the PA GOP. The fact that it’s weighted toward the GOP by 3 or 4 points doesn’t much matter. It shows that it’s next door neightbor, Ohio, could be Romney’s on election day.

    Any comments?

  140. rdelbov says:

    Lets see exactly what PA poll #27 asked.

    How did you vote in the last election?

    That’s very different then how you voted in 2008?

    In 2008 it 54obama 44 McCain.

    In 2010 Corbett won 55%(?) and Toomey won 51%. The GOP won 5 D house seats(or was it 4?) and swept legislative chambers. Yes PA voted R in 2010 so question 27 does not show an over sampling of Rs

    This poll shows that nearly every republican for McCain (44%) wants to vote for Romney. Yet 9% of the (54%) voters do not want to repeat their vote for Obama.

    Is this an outrageous concept that Rs, Ds or indies who voted for Obama have either died, left the state or do not want to vote in 2012?

    I have not yet met a McCain voter who wants to switch to Obama for 2012. I know a ton of Obama voters who regret it.

  141. rdelbov says:

    The PA poll shows that McCain voters are eager to repeat an R vote (whether they are indies or ds or rs) and Obama voters are 10% less likely to do it.

    54-44 becomes 50-44

    Its just one in ten Obama voters staying home or dying or leaving state or whatever.

  142. Polaris says:

    #146 Marv I think it’s a fair point although I’d be careful to read too much into Ohio based on a PA poll.

    However, if PA is close (say within five) then Romney very, very likely takes Ohio. At least that’s my read on it.


  143. DW says:

    there has been some recent tightening in PA, if the polls shown on RCP are to be believed:

    9/12 Philly inq. Obama +11
    9/16 Morning call Obama +9
    9/18 WAA Obama +6

    and not sure when the Susquehenna poll was, but Obama +1 is probably too optimistic, but even at Obama +4 it continues a recent trend.

  144. Polaris says:

    #150 Well according to Sean Trende we should expect tightening in both the national and state races. Not only that but remember that most state polls lag national numbers by about a week (why no one is really sure but that does seem to be the pattern). That being so, we should expect even further tighening of state polls next week.

    Just remember not to party like it’s 1999 2008 to paraphrase Prince (the song writer).


  145. Optimus Prime says:

    Ye Gods

    NBC actually showed ooo stumbling at his univision appearance.

  146. Frank says:


    I can’t say that I am getting pessimistic over this election but I can say that I am reading a lot of the same stuff that was written 4 years ago. I see too much “trash that poll” that it is starting to bother me.

    I will trust myself with Rasmussen’s party ID (and Gallup’s 3-week sample) but it gets frustrating seeing the same things being said again.

    Open House tonight. Gotta go.


  147. Wobbles says:

    Is Scarborough and Andre Mitchell going to report on said stumlling?

  148. Polaris says:

    #153 I’m sorry Frank but the sometimes the truth is the truth. If you DON’T believe that 2008 is the correct demographic model then you have to trash any poll that uses 2008 as it’s model. I remind you that the 2008 MSM polls WERE wrong…just in the opposite way and thus almost no one remembers them.

    I am NOT ignoring what Ras is saying about DRI and I am NOT saying that Romney will win or is even ahead. I rate this race as too close to call.

    However, either you believe this will be 2008 again or you don’t. It’s that simple.


  149. Addisonst says:

    Rdel despite my new pessimism, one of the reeds I cling to is that mitt will do better in every state than McCain did. I’ve yet to have a lefty bet against that.

  150. Addisonst says:

    I concur w frank. I fell into that trap 4 years ago. I liked the 47 percent comment but I think mitt is losing the narrative. He’s being compared to thurston Howell. Well if that’s true that makes Obama Gilligan.

  151. Frank says:


    I totally understand that it isn’t 2008 again. That is very obvious. What I can’t stand is the simple statements of trash this or trash that without a thorough examination of the data.

    I have usually, if you remember, put the crosstabs into a spreadsheet to find out what the overall would be with a variety of party ID’s. I usually start with the given ID and go down by 1% at a time to D+0. Then I can see what the results would have been with a wide variety of ID’s. If time permits, I post them. It’s just hard to read at times.

    Now I really have to go.


  152. Polaris says:

    #157 I don’t like having to repeat many of the same things, but truth is truth whether it’s 2008 or 2012. In 2008 I simply ignored the impact of the fiscal crisis and ignored the Ras DRI that was warning us of a Dem electorate.

    Now I am USING Ras’s model (and Gallup’s LV model as well). I am not going out of a limb. I am using a very conservative D+2 model.

    However, if the MSM pollsters are going to pretend like it’s 2008 or more, then what can I do? Trash is trash. If you don’t believe that there is a D+7 electorate, then don’t believe it It’s really that simple.


  153. Polaris says:

    #158 If you will have notice Frank, I am not saying “trash this” and “trash that” willy nilly. There are standards and we discussed those standards days ago. Even when I do look at a D-heavy (2008 style) poll, I still look inside it to see trends. However, when we are being fed RV polls less than two months away from an election, we should ignore it (at least in general). We are more than close enough for LV polls. This was one of the standards we agreed on, or so I thought.


  154. Polaris says:

    The problem with RV polls even if you do correct the DRIs with varying flavors is that the RV population is different than the LV population…and simply reweighing doesn’t cut it. The LV screen makes for a different sample.


  155. Michael says:

    New thread

  156. Addisonst says:

    Polaris that wasn’t a shot at you. I get tired of the constant refrain on you for 4 years ago. But there is some déjà vu going on. I don’t like the anecdotes. Tpaw out, denials that they are surrendering states. There are red flags.

  157. lisab says:

    Christie in 2016!!!

    #50 obviously.

    Comment by Brandon

    if romney loses only a social conservative, likely evangelical southern baptist, will make it through the gop primaries

    no way will the south allow a non social-con gop candidate win after

  158. lisab says:

    no way will the south allow a non social-con gop candidate win after mccain and romney

  159. rdelbov says:

    I for one also search for one or two basis to trash a poll. One of the big three and why repeat myself on what the big three are.

    I kid a bit when I trash a poll but I always check the internals before I trash it.

  160. Scooter Boy says:

    It’s absolutely amazing to me that Obama continues to lead in this race. The economy is blowing up, the Mid-East is burning up and this bozo’s poll #s are going up. Unbelievable. During the univision forumn today Obama was asked if the Libya attack was a terrorist attack. He still couldn’t bring himself to admit is was a terrorist attack even though his press secretary today stated it was. God help us all

  161. Rob says:

    Your house is valueble for me. Thanks!…