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Marist Says Obama Leads in CO, IA and WI

It is hard to complain about the quantity of polls at the tail end of this week. NBC News, The Wall Street Journal and Marist College have released tonight new polls for the states of Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin claiming Barack Obama has reached the 50% mark in all three states..

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

PRESIDENT – IOWA (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%

The polls were conducted September 16-18 among 971 likely voters in Colorado, 898 likely voters in Iowa and 968 likely voters in Wisconsin.

Posted by Dave at 6:54 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (238)

238 Responses to “Marist Says Obama Leads in CO, IA and WI”

  1. SusyQue says:

    The opposition disappeared under the fierce fires of the TRUTH!

  2. Michael says:

    NFL prediction
    Thursday
    Panthers vs. Giants

    Panthers win

  3. Michael says:

    Also I hate this week, bad polling week.

  4. Rocky Mountain Way says:

    I laeds in Colorado too!

  5. Polaris says:

    #3 No suprise. It’s a week after Obama’s convention bounce started to fade in national polls. Also it’s Marist…fisking them now…

    -Polaris

  6. RottiLargo says:

    Don’t worry, all the polls are wrong -eye roll-

    We’ve gone over the tipping point.

  7. Michael says:

    One think Marist helps with, helps affirm with PPP and Ras that Wisconsin is not out of range

  8. Addisonst says:

    Polaris that wasn’t a shot at you. I get tired of the constant refrain on you for 4 years ago. But there is some déjà vu going on. I don’t like the anecdotes. Tpaw out, denials that they are surrendering states. There are red flags.

    Comment by Addisonst — September 20, 2012 @ 6:59 pm

  9. Mose says:

    Make it stop . . .

  10. RB says:

    Well look at it this way, for most of the states we have hit the floor in RCP. No where to go but up…I hope.

  11. Polaris says:

    WI is a D+5 Poll with LVs: 33D/28R/38I

    I am not finding the partisan splits….why aren’t you showing me the partisan splits Marist?

    Even so Obama+5 in WI is fine by me…but I am not happy that some of the internals have not been included.

    That concludes the WI poll.

    -Polaris

  12. Scott says:

    The Marist Poll in Colorado in Party ID. are D+5 in Wisconsin and D+2. Iowa is not up yet.

  13. Surfnut says:

    Stop it; Stop it! I just can’t keep taking all this good news.

  14. Polaris says:

    I am not saying that Romney is perfect by any means. In fact I *warned* everyone much earlier in the year that my big problem with Romney is his tendency to play not-to-lose rather than to win…and I think we’re seeing some of that. IMHO Romney needs to get out in front and CHALLENGE the MSM narrative somehow.

    So I am not as polyannish as some may think. I just hate the wool that’s being pulled over people’s eyes.

    Anyway…on to the next Marist poll…

    -Polaris

  15. W.PA Observer says:

    They say R-O tied in Wisconsin at 45-46 with Indies. So the difference is in sample size, Romney holds 98 percent of Republicans there. Iowa seems D + something despite R registration advantage. On the whole though, better than the other three polls from earlier this week in Marist.

    Frankly, they track even with a 50-45 national race from NBC-WSJ – if that’s a gap, then it would be similar in many swing states (other than Florida I would think). We’ll see

  16. Polaris says:

    Also as a ‘san’ (sanity) check, I find it…odd that Obama would only be up by five in WI but up 8 in IA which is a much less friendly state for Obama.

    -Polaris

  17. lisab says:

    Christie in 2016!!!

    #50 obviously.

    Comment by Brandon
    —————————————

    if romney loses only a social conservative, likely evangelical southern baptist, will make it through the gop primaries

    no way will the south allow a non social-con gop candidate win after mccain and romney

  18. Addisonst says:

    If only romney was an idea guy like Ryan. But u dance w the one that brung ya. He was the least flawed candidate who ran. I read forceful cases against Obama everyday. But not from him. He’s the guy with the 59 point plan and no plan at the same time.

  19. RottiLargo says:

    If Mitt loses, I join the Ronulans in backing Rand.

    I would NOT have done so if he had not fallen in behind Romney

  20. Robbie says:

    Disaster. Disaster. Disaster.

    One of these days, Romney’s going to have a good day on the trail.

    I hope it happens soon.

  21. Addisonst says:

    I agree Polaris. IMHO the states roll Romney in the order of Ioway wis then col.

  22. Scott says:

    In the Colorado Poll,Marist has a 28% Liberal electorate.In 2008,CO had a 17% Liberal electorate. Also in 2008,Party ID was R+1.

  23. Polaris says:

    Co poll…D+2 (as already said):

    DRI: 34/32/32 (IMHO should be R+1 or 2 based on registration gains)

    Ah..they are claiming a surge in RVs from R+3 to D+3 since May. That seems…unlikely.

    With all that, the best they can do is Obama+5? Again I am not seeing any partisan splits. Show your work Marist.

    Still, it’s not a horrid poll by any means. Essentially it confirms what we already know. CO is a MOE state.

    -Polaris

  24. rdelbov says:

    Of CO is +4.2% R by registration. Can I say Trash if its +5D?

    That’s showing a D wave in CO?

    See my PA analysis in last thread. When you see some movement towards the Rs from 2008 turnout numbers then Romney makes it a race.

    What was the Party ID in other CO polls this week? Any of them +5D?

    Iowa should be +2R and that’s without any GOP passion.

  25. Bitterlaw says:

    Surfnut is Jewish. Eph is Jewish. Can we vote on whether Eph is Surfnut now?

  26. Crymedogg says:

    Expected these polls from Marist…Ras has Mitt up in NH, CO and Iowa.. Good enough for me. That means FL, VA and OH are in good shape

  27. Polaris says:

    #24 Not quite. A registration advantage is not quite the same as a self-ided partisan advantage (something we had to remind the Kerryites of in 2004 if you’ll recall). However, I do view it with suspicion. Let me pull out the 2008 numbers. Back in a few.

    -Polaris

  28. Addisonst says:

    When have the gops ever not nominated a southern socon?

    Well there was Nixon
    Ok besides Nixon when?
    Reagan twice.
    Ok besides Nixon and Reagan?
    Ford.

    Granted. Besides Nixon ford and Reagan when have the gops not picked a southern socon?

    Bush the first.
    Anybody c
    Well dole McCain and Romney.

  29. Polaris says:

    Oh wow….

    In 2008, the DRI was: 30/31/39

    The CO poll is still good news for Romney but WOW! D+5 when even in 2008 CO was R+1?

    Whatever Marist is smoking I want some (but it’s almost certainly illegal in all 57 states).

    -Polaris

  30. RB says:

    As far as the disaster comments…while the polling was horrific today(with some polls that started last week), I would say the Univision interview wins the disaster of the day…I don’t think he has had that many hard questions in the last 2 years. There are opportunities to pounce.

  31. Redgill says:

    Has anybody noticed the day seems to start out better than it ends? Didn’t Ras have us up in IA and colorado within the last day or so/

  32. Polaris says:

    #31 Today did NOT start out well. Much of HHR was ready to commit Seppuku when they saw Ras’ numbers this morning and was AFTER Marv, Scott, and I (and Frank as well I think) *warned* everyone to expect a pro-Obama topline in Ras this morning.

    -Polaris

  33. rdelbov says:

    Just a side note the 50 million COH for the Romney campaign. Did Politico mention that does not include +100 million COH for RNC?

    As of the last reporting period RNC had 97 million COH while DNC had 25 million COH.

    The Romney edge in COH is RNC cash. I am thinking we are not getting the full story from our leftish sources.

  34. Polaris says:

    #33 The Romney edge in COH is RNC cash. I am thinking we are not getting the full story from our leftish sources

    Ya think?!? (no offense intended)

    -Polaris

  35. rdelbov says:

    Polaris I have to left but if national movement is 4 to 5 % off from 2008. That does have to show up in state polls right?

    If every swing state poll shows a turnout shift to the Ds the national numbers don’t add up???

    Beating a dead pollster but you get my point and yes I get yours.

  36. Polaris says:

    IA poll up…fisking it now….

    -Polaris

  37. Polaris says:

    Ack never mind…I can’t get a response when I go to the IA link.

    -Polaris

  38. lisab says:

    the southern cons were pushed aside by reagan and bush

    like mccain actively did

    and romney crushed the social cons

    no way the split the vote in the primaries again

  39. lisab says:

    Headline: Scott Brown in slight lead vs. Warren. Article: “The GOP incumbent is beating Warren by a 50-44 percent margin”

  40. Robbie says:

    30.As far as the disaster comments…while the polling was horrific today(with some polls that started last week), I would say the Univision interview wins the disaster of the day…I don’t think he has had that many hard questions in the last 2 years. There are opportunities to pounce.

    Comment by RB — September 20, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

    I agree, but Romney’s got get ahead of the news. If the story becomes the lagging polls, he’ll be branded a loser before he even makes it to the conventions.

    I recognize the state polls are reflecting Obama’s bounce nationally last week, but I’m not ready to believe that the next batch next week will look substantially better.

  41. Scooter Boy says:

    Obama has never been a good speaker without the teleprompter, we all know this. That’s why the debates are so important. Obama doesn’t do well when pressured. The univision interviewers didn’t let him get away with just his first response. They followed up. Something you won’t see much from the White House Press Corps these days. The only worry I have about the debates is I fear he will already know the questions before they are asked.

  42. Robbie says:

    Conventions should read debates. Sorry.

  43. Polaris says:

    Got it! Fisking IA poll now…had to enter the URL by hand.

    -Polaris

  44. lisab says:

    btw brown warren debate going on tonight

  45. Addisonst says:

    The debates are not important unless there is a poles are independent and autonomous people moment. Bush was brutal in 00 and still won. If you are counting on debates you are cooked. Especially w this guy. It’s money and ground game.

  46. lisab says:

    you can watch the debate here

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/cbs-boston-live-stream/

    current question is on abortion

  47. Polaris says:

    OK IA poll…

    DRI: 36/31/33

    Ideology (Imp for Iowa):

    25 Lib/31 Mod/44 Con

    Again I am seeing NO Partisan splits…damn it Marist SHOW your work….

    By comparison, in 2008, IA was:

    DRI: 34/33/33
    Ideology: 19/44/37

    I also note that in 2008 17% of the electorate was under thirty as opposed to the claim of 10% here.

    This poll is extremely suspect. The sample seems WAY too Dem and WAY too liberal for IA.

    -Polaris

  48. lisab says:

    it actually sounds like warren had the questions before hand

  49. Polaris says:

    #49 This suprises you Lisab? He probably did.

    -Polaris

  50. lisab says:

    “He probably did.”

    warren is a she

  51. lisab says:

    warren is winning btw

  52. Polaris says:

    #52 My mistake. Consider the statement altered accordingly. Shows what I know about MA politics :)

    -Polaris

  53. Polaris says:

    #51 That’s just creepy.

    -Polaris

  54. lisab says:

    The Obama campaign is now selling copies of an American flag painting that replaces the 50 stars in a blue field with the president’s campaign logo.

    “Our Stripes: Flag Print” is being promoted on the Obama campaign website. The screen print is designed by Ross Bruggink and Dan Olson.

    The limited-edition print costs $35.

    President Obama’s version of the American flag.

  55. Polaris says:

    #56 The parallels in history virtually write themselves…but I well forbear for now.

    -Polaris

  56. Polaris says:

    #56 The only thing that mildly suprises me is that Obama didn’t have his face placed inside the “O” in his party flag.

    -Polaris

  57. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    I have met two black people who are not voting for Obama! Both are voting for Romney. I live in Texas so it doesn’t really matter! Romney will win Texas regardless of the black vote.

  58. Dylan says:

    Remember the heady days when Chicago didn’t get the olympics and we all felt that was the beginning of the end of O?. . . . .oh how I long for those salad days. . . . .

  59. RB says:

    If I was Mitt, I would pull both the American flag and the ‘Obama flag’ out of my pocket in the first debate and say “Mr. President, the people are looking for leadership to lead the country represented by this flag(American flag), not someone whose ego has created this flag(Obama flag)”.

  60. Polaris says:

    If you were going to find a African-American who is not voting for Obama (but voting), Texas would be the place.

    -Polaris

  61. Born Buckeye says:

    #17: After Akin and his ilk, no way in hell a social conservative gets the nod in ’16. Women voters are alienated enough as it is from GOP. That makes Christie a good bet. Rubio too. But no weirdos like Santourm or Paul.

    Still hoping Mitt gets a fire under his ass and starts campaigning as if he wants to win. Getting late…

  62. lisab says:

    “the shiniest show in the ‘verse premiered ten years ago today.”

    that is for julstol

  63. lisab says:

    you are deluding yourself

    if romney loses the evangelicals will be convinced it was because they were not evangelicals

    santorum, though ironically catholic, will be the gop frontrunner

  64. Monetarist says:

    Scott Brown is wiping the floor with Elizabeth Warren.

    Annihilation.

  65. Polaris says:

    Let’s see how 2012 plays out first. Deal?

    -Polaris

  66. Scott says:

    #66- Agreed

  67. Robbie says:

    Something tells me Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, and Rand Paul are already thinking about their 2016 campaigns.

  68. Wobbles says:

    Brokered convention?

  69. lisab says:

    “All I wanted to do was set up a new account with [Time Warner Cable] but 36hrs later I’ve lost the will to live,” Stewart, who recently settled into a $2 million home in Park Slope, ranted on Twitter.” patrick stewart

    so true … it took THREE WEEKS to get cable installed in ny from time warner

    they canceled twice

  70. Dylan says:

    Where can one watch the Brown/Warren debate?

  71. Robbie says:

    70.Brokered convention?

    Comment by Wobbles — September 20, 2012 @ 7:57 pm

    2016 could be exciting!!! Stay tuned.

  72. jason says:

    Sure Wobbie Troll, and you are already picking the one most likely to win so you will have someone to attack.

  73. lisab says:

    “Scott Brown is wiping the floor with Elizabeth Warren.”

    i thought warren was crushing brown

  74. Robbie says:

    If Romney wanted to get some good advice, I think he should bring Scott Walker along with him. Walker stared down the left and beat them back soundly with policy and persuasion.

  75. jason says:

    Not to worry, Wobbie Troll is just parroting the MSM meme that the election is already decided.

  76. lisab says:

    “Where can one watch the Brown/Warren debate?”

    see #47

  77. Monetarist says:

    lisab

    Of course you did – you are a socialist.

    Plus, it seemed that the media agreed with you as well.

  78. jason says:

    Romney got elected governor in MA. I think he is probably pretty good at persuasion.

  79. Robbie says:

    74.Sure Wobbie Troll, and you are already picking the one most likely to win so you will have someone to attack.

    Comment by jason — September 20, 2012 @ 7:58 pm

    Must have been tough for you to read Politico’s article last night/this morning quoting Romney’s advisors saying they now realize he must offer more policy specifics.

  80. Emerica says:

    LOL Rick Perry was painful to watch.

    Don’t forget about Newt. I bet that guy will be back to bloviate.

  81. Polaris says:

    Time for some thursday pigskin. Later.

    -Polaris

  82. Robbie says:

    77.Not to worry, Wobbie Troll is just parroting the MSM meme that the election is already decided.

    Comment by jason — September 20, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

    No, I don’t believe the race is over. But I’m sure the jerks who abandoned us in 2012 are already thinking about 2016.

  83. Brandon says:

    Yup.

  84. Addisonst says:

    Ok this is fun. Annoying Robbie who finds fault w the crease in romneys pants vs the romney is a good to great candidate crowd,
    . As Dennis green said, Romney is who we thought he is. Which is why he’s losing an unlosable election.

  85. Brandon says:

    If you want to crown him, then crown his a**?

  86. hellbelly says:

    ……regarding LisaB’s comments on the Brown/Warren debate…I remember clearly the night Brown beat Coakley…she spent the entire evening spreading disinformation about how the results were coming in.

    Not to be trusted. Not one little bit.

  87. jason says:

    ” Must have been tough for you to read Politico’s article ”

    Reading left wing websites is always tough on me.

    Fortunately, I have enough brains to realize they don’t necessarily speak the truth.

    Why don’t you read some “news” that is not parroting the WH line.

    Try http://www.instapundit.com for example.

  88. lisab says:

    “Plus, it seemed that the media agreed with you as well.

    Comment by Monetarist”

    warren did spectacular

    of course the questions were all favorable to her

    abortion
    birth control
    global warming
    anti-war

  89. Phil says:

    ad

    Lot of talk down here in Texas about Vince Young regarding his new found poverty and how he’s blown thirty million and has no job. What the hell happened to that guy anyway.

    Sad case.

  90. lisab says:

    “she spent the entire evening spreading disinformation about how the results were coming in.”

    no i gave accurate information of how the results were coming in

  91. jason says:

    Yawnnn. The Ficus kissed Obama’s ass for 3 years and then trashed Romney for a year.

    Now is here to say Romney is not a good candidate?

    LOL

  92. Scott says:

    Lisab
    Brown whipped Warren’s sorry butt with the asbestos claims!

  93. Phil says:

    Never read Politico any longer. Talk about an agenda. They aren’t even subtle anymore.

  94. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Obammer offered no specifics whatever when he ran the first time, why is Romney obligated to now?

  95. jason says:

    The media thought Warren won?

    Wow, that’s a surprise.

  96. Addisonst says:

    Um bc this isn’t a referendum anymore it’s a choice

  97. Dylan says:

    The comments under the link to the Warren/Brown debate are BEYOND leftist drivel. It is a Hugo Chavez support group. unbelievable.

  98. bio mom says:

    Oh stop this already. This site is schizophrenic. How many times do we need to have the same conversation about the polls! The differences come from turnout assumptions and timing of the polls. The only conclusion is that this is a turnout election.

    Santorum has absolutely NO chance to be nominated for the Rs. The bench is way too strong.

  99. hellbelly says:

    LisaB….you had folks here sticking their heads in ovens with your comments on the Brown/Coakley election night…you were so crazily wrong as to render your opinion here null and void on all elections here.

  100. Phil says:

    …because Romney isn’t allowed to play under the same lax rules as Dear Leader.

  101. jason says:

    “Obammer offered no specifics whatever when he ran the first time, why is Romney obligated to now?”

    Because according to Wobbie Troll, Obama’s record is irrelevant.

    The election is about Romney’s dog on the roof, Ann’s caddies, etc.

  102. Bitterlaw says:

    jason- are people still crying about the election? I don’t feel like reading a bunch of p*ssies whining and 1000 Polaris posts.

  103. Emerica says:

    Romney made the mistake of not consolidating his conservative base, and now he is spending the general election flailing in the wind trying to get the votes of conservatives.

    And he picked an weak VP. That doesn’t help either.

  104. jason says:

    I can’t believe Obama really got skewered on Univision. They hate Romney. And Rubio.

  105. Scooter Boy says:

    Adrian Gray- “Why doesn’t the United States of Obama flag have 57 stars”

  106. Monetarist says:

    lisab

    I’m not familiar with the story… can you explained how Elizabeth Warren stood up for the insurance company and enabled them to deny any payouts to the families of people who died?

    I thought she fought for the little guy, no?

  107. jason says:

    ” base, and now he is spending the general election flailing in the wind trying to get the votes of conservatives”

    Bunu, you are not a conservative.

    And of course, Romney’s famous tape said “I need the vote of the 10% in the middle that decide elections”.

    Didn’t sound like he was worried about conservatives.

  108. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Hellbelly – How is your son enjoying the Main Line? When are you coming to visit me and MD? If jason can catch a buggy, Pitch can get out of the ER and Todd McCain can (I don’t him as well), we can have HHR night. Brandon is welcome, too. Jul has to go to a Ron Paul 2016 rally.

  109. Phil says:

    shut up, bunu. You ought to hook up with Smurfnut. No, you’d like him even if he is Jewish. You want to see Israel nuked and that guy will gladly hide his head in the sand while it happens. Your kind of Jew.

  110. michael says:

    Panthers!

  111. hellbelly says:

    Mr. Bitterlaw,

    My son loves it…..sure helps to have women on the campus!

  112. jason says:

    Ann Romney will be on Leno Tuesday.

    I remember when he rode in on a motorcycle with Elizabeth Dole.

  113. Bitterlaw says:

    Bunu backs Mr. 0-100 in Primaries and Caucuses for 2 cycles and thinks he is an election expert. What a joke.

  114. Addisonst says:

    If bunt says Romney has been a bad candidates can’t argue. He’s got me longing fr the halcyon days of McCain. He shouldbe trading at 70 on in trade. Not 30

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Hellbelly – the women are flaming libs but straight. The lesbians are over at Bryn Mawr College.

  116. jason says:

    Here is why Robbie wants to talk about Romney’s campaign manager….

    ” NEW YORK — FedEx Corp.’s gloomy business outlook may not be the last unwelcome delivery for investors in the coming weeks.

    The global shipping giant slashed profit projections for 2012 after posting another quarterly slump in earnings. And its chief executive said trade has slowed to levels not seen during the last two significant economic downturns.

    That’s not exactly what Wall Street wants to hear from a company considered to be a bellwether of the global economy. And it also portends bad news for the hundreds of major U.S. companies that will start reporting third-quarter earnings in a few weeks.”

  117. Brandon says:

    Come on Andre Brown, be my waiver wire steal of the week.

  118. bio mom says:

    Well then I hope this “conservative base” likes the likely 2new liberalmSupreme Court justices and the socialistic redistribution it’s policies they will get if Obama is reelected.

  119. Bitterlaw says:

    How many Electoral Votes does Intrade have?

  120. Bitterlaw says:

    How many Jews died in those unfortunate shower “accidents” in the Holocaust, Bunu?

  121. Addisonst says:

    Bitter you realize that you are arguing that Romney is winning right now. If the eagles are ten pt dogs this week are you takingeven?

  122. bio mom says:

    116

    Utter nonsense!

  123. Addisonst says:

    Bio. We’ve been through this. People do not vote on the court . They don’t care

  124. Mr.Vito says:

    “How many Jews died in those unfortunate shower “accidents” in the Holocaust, Bunu?”

    They were allergic to the water.

  125. bio mom says:

    But they care about he consequences.

  126. SusyQue says:

    Laura Ingram loves to spout off about Romney. He needs to be more cool, like obama is cool on TV. Romney should say this…
    and that….The trouble with talk show hosts (most of them) they are all puffed up about themselves and their views and ideas. They are like the movie stars…self absorbed. So many people are violating Reagans 11th commandment. Do not speak ill of other Republicans especially when they are running for office. (my paraphrase)

  127. Addisonst says:

    126 what’s nonsense? Is Romney winning?s

  128. Bitterlaw says:

    Add – I didn’t say Romney was winning. I’m just tired of the non-stop crying. I also wonder how Polaris disappears for months and now dominates the conversation.

  129. hellbelly says:

    I just hope that the Univision interviewer shames the folks at ABC/NBC/CBS/CNN into being willing to ask BO real questions.

    I know that’s asking a lot but one thing gives me heart……they are facing ridicule way too soon before Election Day and ridicule is the only thing they fear.

  130. Addisonst says:

    128 no they don’t

  131. lisab says:

    “you had folks here sticking their heads in ovens with your comments on the Brown/Coakley election night” hellbelly
    ————————

    you are mis-remembering, i think my reporting is accurate for the time they were posted

    ——————————

    “Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%)”

    if that holds it means brown is winning the non-boston burbs.basically white collar whitespeapody is shopping Mall country

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:12 pm
    —————————–
    (my one pro coaxley statement)
    coaxley is getting 88% in cambridge, looks like she will win

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:23 pm
    ——————————–
    “Do you think LisaB might enjoy fooling with ya? Think about it.”

    well, i could be … but i am not, only 3% in though in cambridge
    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:27 pm
    ———————————
    mixed results really, coaxley is winning huge in worcestor and camridge,

    but squeaking by in lynn and belmont. lynn is a surprise, it should be big for coaxley
    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:30 pm
    ——————————-
    i am using the dnc site

    er … i mean the boston globe

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:31 pm
    ——————————-
    “STOP saying Coakley “won” 88% of Cambridge! She got that pct in only 1 precinct — out of 33.”

    that was the republican part of cambridge

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:36 pm
    ——————————-
    brown is doing ok on cape cod

    he is winning chatham, brewster, orleans

    but will lose p-town big

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:39 pm

    ————————–
    basically all of the big cities are holding the vote totals back

    boston, worcester, springfield, lawrence, lowell etc.

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:43 pm
    —————————-
    plymouth is going for brown

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 8:49 pm
    ————————-

    my hometown went something like 5 or 6 to 1 for coaxley

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @

    9:10 pm
    ————————-
    coaxley got 84% of provincetown … my hometown :)
    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 9:12 pm
    ————————-

    —————————
    rachel maddow is reporting from jamaica plain

    that is like reporting from harlem, in the bad part

    i would not go there in the daytime with a police escort

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 9:17 pm
    —————————
    your numbers for wellesley are off

    it was basically 50-50

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 9:21 pm
    —————————-
    AP called it for brown

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 9:22 pm
    ————————-
    coaxley conceded

    Comment by lisab — January 19, 2010 @ 9:22 pm

  132. Addisonst says:

    Bitter news flash mitt is losing an unlosable election

  133. jason says:

    ” He shouldbe trading at 70 on in trade. Not 30 ”

    Romney is at 30 because Intrade just follows the polls.

    The instant Romney improves in the polls he will improve in Intrade.

    You could have bought Bush at 10 on election day 2004. Then he went to 90 in an hour.

    Intrade does not measure who is a “good” candidate or not. If Romney improves in the polls, he will still be the same candidate at 50 he was at 30.

  134. bio mom says:

    Nonsense is using betting parlors to decide serious electoral issues. The dumbing down of America!

  135. lisab says:

    “I’m not familiar with the story… can you explained how Elizabeth Warren stood up for the insurance company and enabled them to deny any payouts to the families of people who died?” Monetarist

    no idea, warren is not a massachusetts person

    she actually said the WESTERN part of the state is NOT landlocked like the rest of the state

  136. Addisonst says:

    Bio the bettors just reflect the market. Mitt is losing to a loser. It’s not debatable

  137. SusyQue says:

    Mitt is not losing.

  138. Robbie says:

    Romney’s been trying to make it all about Obama for almost six months and it has NOT worked. He trails nationally and he trails in all of the important battleground states.

    In the Politico piece last night, a Romney official said this. “In a lot of the current survey data, there’s a desire among the electorate to know more about Mitt in terms of how he would lead. Over the next six weeks, the campaign is going to provide a lot more of that.”

    The Romney official continued, “to convince what’s left of the undecided voters that Obama has been a disappointment and that he has a specific plan that is less risky than the status quo.”

    Romney must convince the public he’s an acceptable alternative to Obama. This strategy shift/course correction is good news as far as I’m concerned.

  139. Addisonst says:

    Lol at hall monitor. You’re a moron

  140. jason says:

    ” Bitter news flash mitt is losing an unlosable election”

    Not really.

    Romney is losing within the MOE of the tracking polls.

    I for one never said he was a sure thing. I think an incumbent President has huge advantages.

    Still, if the election is on Obama’s record he will lose.

    The narrative on Romney is driven by a partisan MSM. If the MSM is successful in making it about Romney, which is also Wobbie Troll’s and the Ficus’ wish, then Obama will win.

  141. Robbie says:

    InTrade may be the worst way to judge the state of a race. It just follows news. It doesn’t anticipate news.

    It had the individual mandate being struck down just minutes before the Supreme Court upheld it.

  142. Marv says:

    I think today was a pretty good day for Romney in the newscycle. The WH finally had to admit that Benghazi was a terrorist attack, Obama admitted that he can’t change anything in Washington, Romney has stepped up his attacks on Obama, the economic news was bad again, and the conservative punditry has finally started to come around on Romney’s 47% comment……at least, they’re explaining what he meant.

    Based on all that and what I think I understand about what’s rolling off both Gallup and RAS, and having some understanding about what’s on both of them right now…..I expect Romney to gain a point or so in both RAS and Gallup tomorrow. I expect that Romney will have a pretty night tonight in both RAS and Gallup, based on the news cycle today. Heck, even NBC had to play the “redistribution” tape and the Benghazi “terrorist” attack angle was explored on the “CBS Morning Show”, of all places.

    Anyone else with a handle on what is on RAS and Gallup right now?

  143. jason says:

    ” In the Politico piece last night, a Romney official said this. “In a lot of the current survey data, there’s a desire among the electorate to know more about Mitt in terms of how he would lead. Over the next six weeks, the campaign is going to provide a lot more of that.”

    Garbage. Romney has provided plenty of specifics. Everything from taxes to energy to foreign policy to medicare and social security.

    So the MSM is clamoring for specifics and a “Romney advisor” says he will do so.

    Okayyy.. this is big news????

  144. lisab says:

    oh god

    robbie and the ficus together

    and you guys think gay marriage is wrong

    if ever two gay men were made for each other it is robbie and the ficus

  145. bio mom says:

    You are either part of the solution or you are part of the problem. At least Mitt is putting his neck on the line by running instead of relaxing with his millions. I hope he wins. I do not hide that fact. But I do not respect people who do nothing but throw darts while supposedly supporting a candidate. One thing about Obama supporters, I do not see this phenomenon happening with them.

  146. Greymarch says:

    Intrade is for schmucks. The dumb-dumbs on intrade have about 1/10 the knowledge of the typical HHR reader. Honestly, the intrade-folks think paying attention to Gallup or tuning to MSNBC once a night is all you need to know about what is going on.

    Why would anyone around here think that people who use intrade know more than anyone else? If you read all the polls, follow the news from lots of sources, watch interviews, etc..i.e. pay close attention the election, then you will know much, much more than almost all intraders.

  147. Addisonst says:

    I normally don’t respond to the idiot but I’m going down w the ship. If ras and Gallup are wrong,IMHO he’s losing and losing big. And he’s losing big bc he’s not tea party bold. Or you can argue that he’s kicking ass. But that’s reserved for mental defect ties who think tebow can play QB nowback to ignoring the idiot.

  148. Addisonst says:

    English bookies are schmucks. Ok

  149. Addisonst says:

    Its funny I like Ryan a lot. I loved the pick. Now rip away

  150. jason says:

    The ficus is an Obama sycophant and Robbie is a troll.

    Romney could be 10 points ahead and they would still be here talking about how he could lose.

    Obama is slightly ahead with over 6 weeks to go. We still have jobs reports, debates, etc.

    The fact the trolls want to call the election now is no surprise.

    Let’s wait a little longer.

  151. Greymarch says:

    #145: Agreed. In fact, I think today is the first day since the RNC convention that Romney has won the news cycle for a particular day. Let’s hope that trend continues.

    If Romney can avoid any gaffes next week, and let the bad foreign/economic news wash over the electorate, Romney could make some real progress next week.

    @Greymarch (on twitter)

  152. Addisonst says:

    Btw grey, I have posts in 08 echoing your thoughts. Lots of posts

  153. Marv says:

    Dang it, I wish Rick Perry could have debated better.

    https://twitter.com/GovernorPerry/status/248903111329067008/photo/1

  154. jason says:

    So the Ficus thinks Romney is losing big because of the polls I guess.

    The only two he doesn’t believe in are RAS and Gallup?

    LOL.

    Speaking of Tebow, don’t you wish you had him on the bench after Cutler self destructed the other night?

    Or you think Tebow would have played worse?d

  155. SusyQue says:

    #148…bio mom…well said.

  156. Addisonst says:

    I haven’t called the election doofus. Ive just said Romney is Losing today to a brutal candidate. Now go tell us about tebow. Your cognitive processes are always bemusing. I hear the colts want to trade luck for tebow and the jets said gfy

  157. Emerica says:

    Only one month until Romey faceplants.

    And then the GOP will belong to the Tea Party and Ron Paul.

  158. Addisonst says:

    No I don’t want tebow over Jason campbeland neither does any nfl gm

  159. jason says:

    “Or you can argue that he’s kicking ass. ”

    Here is what I think.

    Romney was our best candidate, in fact the only one running that could challenge Obama.

    He has run a good campaign unless you buy in the MSM narrative that he can’t comment on foreign policy (btw, he was right about Libya being a planned attack and Obama not heeding the warnings) and that his saying that 47% of the country doesn’t pay taxes is a gaffe.

    He is much better than Obama and deserves the support of anyone who does not want a nanny state and a liberal SCOTUS.

    The rest is fluff and BS.

  160. Bitterlaw says:

    jason. Cutler is a starting QB who is better than Eli Manning. I read it on the internet.

  161. jason says:

    I guess the Ficus answered the question “could Tebow have played worse than Cutler” by not answering….

    8)

  162. Addisonst says:

    Romney was the best GOP and Romney is a bad ge candidate are not mutually exclusiive. Why did thaw leave? Fearof success?

  163. jason says:

    Bitter, I read where he is top 10. At least 2 people in Chicago actually believe it.

  164. SusyQue says:

    $163…jason….well said and very true.

  165. Addisonst says:

    Tebow cannot start for any nfl team. Cutler does. Case dismissed

  166. lisab says:

    Marv, there are three reasons perry did not do well in the debates … :)

  167. Bitterlaw says:

    The Tea Party and Ron Paul? The Tea Party is not defined by hatred of America and anti-Semitism.

  168. jason says:

    ” Romney is a bad ge candidate are not mutually exclusiive.”

    Well, for an Obama supporter I guess that is true.

    For the rest of us, the fact the election is being fought and decided in VA, FL, WI, OH, CO, NV and NV while IN and NC are gone for Obama might show Romney is a pretty good candidate.

  169. Addisonst says:

    So thaw left bc he hates victory?

  170. lisab says:

    Donald Trump takes the position of all good Republicans, says Kate Middleton only has herself to blame for being photographed topless

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2205297/Kate-Middleton-photo-scandal-She-blame-says-Donald-Trump.html

  171. Addisonst says:

    If Romney was a good candidate hed be beating an incompetent w high use and record deficits

  172. jason says:

    Cutler is a loser.

    Tebow is a winner.

    Case closed.

  173. Greymarch says:

    #163: Out of the GOP candidates who actually ran for the nomination, Romney was easily the best of the bunch. Is Romney the best GOP politician in the country? Oh goodness no. The GOP’s absolute best didn’t want to run against an incumbent who easily won the 2008 election. I dont blame Rubio, Ryan, Thune, Christie, Jindal, etc. for not running in 2012. Throughout American history it has been typically been easier to get elected president when you are not running against an incumbent.

    @Greymarch (on twitter)

  174. Addisonst says:

    What does that mean and why do 32 gms think tebow is a loser?

  175. jason says:

    ” If Romney was a good candidate hed be beating an incompetent w high use and record deficits”

    BS.

    Not a level playing field.

    I think Romney is an excellent candidate, whether he wins or loses.

    If the best candidate always won, we would have a very different country.

  176. Addisonst says:

    Hello cleveland want tebow?no Seattle you have a rookie want tebow?hellno?how bout jax?hes local and you suck.no

  177. Marv says:

    #170 lisab,

    I refuse to allow you to provoke me tonight.
    I am in a good mood…..Romney had very good news in Gallup today and he won the newscycle day. So, all is well.

    Anyway, if Obama wins, Gov Perry is going to kick the US out of the Republic of Texas and leave you mofo’s to fend for yourselves.

  178. Frank says:

    #158
    If you will have notice Frank, I am not saying “trash this” and “trash that” willy nilly. There are standards and we discussed those standards days ago. Even when I do look at a D-heavy (2008 style) poll, I still look inside it to see trends. However, when we are being fed RV polls less than two months away from an election, we should ignore it (at least in general). We are more than close enough for LV polls. This was one of the standards we agreed on, or so I thought.

    -Polaris

    Polaris,

    It is not you that bothers me. You look at the details of the poll and frisk it very well. I completely agree with all that you say. It is obviously not 2008 and it isn’t a D+8 world out there. Rasmussen and Gallup prove that. I agree that D+2 is a reasonable party ID to use.

    I just get frustrated when other posters just say trash it without going through the laborious work that you do, or I do.

    I’m sorry if I was insulting in any way. It isn’t you.

    Frank

  179. jason says:

    Cutler has blown every opportunity he has had. His NFL career so far is crap compared to the expectations and hype. In the NFL he has the reputation of being a whiner. Against GB he played like crap but blamed everyone else as usual

    Tebow, on the other hand, took the one opportunity he had and took a losing team to winning the division.

    Here is the NBC News take on Cutler:

    ” As if the Bears don’t suddenly have enough problems, they now have to fret about when and if the players will rise up against their petulant, James Dean-wannabe quarterback, Jay Cutler.”

    Petulant? James Dean wannabe? LOL

  180. Addisonst says:

    I know you arent very smart. But cutler starts for an nfl team. Tebow doesnt.no team wants him to be their QB bc he can’t play QB. Take it up w all 32 gms I’m just a fan

  181. Stef says:

    Many of you may not be familiar with Google Insights (AKA Trends).

    Here’s one I ran today wondering about the possibility of the Green candidate (Jill Stein) to Nader very close states:

    http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=Green%20party&geo=US&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

    Here’s another one for Jill Stein by name:

    http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=Jill%20Stein&geo=US&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

    Now Green Party you sort of expect are California, Oregon, Mass (Stein is from Mass apparently also). But the search map is actually very interesting:

    Wisconsin and Ohio are #1-2. Colorado, Virginia, NC and Florida are all among the darker states as well.

    I know some polls do ask the question with 3 candidates (D/R/L) and some ask both 2 and 3 candidate questions to compare. But I’m not familiar with polling internals enough to know how many ask about 4th candidates like Green. My impression is it’s rare.

    Maybe swing state voters get so sick of blanket commercials or maybe the negative commercials from both sides take their toll so heavily that swing state voters start to look for alternatives?

  182. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason – remember the time Vick took himself out of a playoff game? How about the time Tebow shoved his own player after playing like crap? Cutler wouldn’t do that.

  183. voice of reason says:

    How is it that Rasmussen has an Iowa poll with Romney plus three and Marist has one with Obama plus eight. 11 points different. Something stinks in polling land. The candidates are off by 5 and 6. Way out of the MoE. I smell a rat somewhere.

  184. jason says:

    A lot of people are on to Cutler, btw.

    ” Cutler’s always-teetering reputation as a petulant, underachieving whiner was reinforced on Thursday in a 23-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers when he threw four interceptions and bumped his underachieving left tackle, J’Marcus Webb, while screaming at him on the sidelines.

    A vengeful Cutler is a familiar Cutler, but not always a successful one.”

    snd

    “But the perception of Cutler in the world of the National Football League is not good. He has his defenders, sure, and even his detractors are respectful of his talent. But his persona is a turnoff and it’s easier to talk about what’s in front of you, his grimace, than to break down the complicated X’s and O’s of an NFL game.”

    http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/8399856/tough-believe-chicago-bears-jay-cutler

  185. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Cutler blows iguanas

  186. Cory (O 332 R 206) says:

    #156
    That isn’t even close to correct.

    Good Lord, Marv, Rick Perry is a MORON.
    I mean, he’s in Sarah Palin territory.

  187. lisab says:

    “Anyway, if Obama wins, Gov Perry is going to kick the US out of the Republic of Texas and leave you mofo’s to fend for yourselves.”

    Marv,

    there are three reasons perry won’t lead texas to secession … :)

  188. Addisonst says:

    Why isn’t tebow starting?

  189. RB says:

    I know the state polling has been mostly awful today, but lets look at it from the glass is half full perspective:

    Obama fially had an awful day and the Libya story is seeping into the electorate.

    Ras and Gallup both have shown preconvention tightning in thier polls…keep in mind as long as they are using the same methodology throughout, the tightning as real. Take out the crazy PEW poll and the horserace numbers would actually be OK on RCP.

    The state polls have big dem oversamples, mainly because they were done over the period from the middle of last week to the beginning of this week. With the exception of Marist(who said they are wighting to 2008, and they refuse to discuss that the electorate may be changing), the oversample is mostly due to the hugh spike in enthusiasm from the DNC. I don’t think it means they are wrong per se, but the high D oversamples should decrease as we go further from the DNC. I think Sean Trende said it actually takes 4 weeks to completely come back down after the convention. If the national numbers stay even in RAS and Gallup the state polls will follow. Ask yourself in a tie race does O win VA by 5, FL by 4, OH by 6, IA by 5 and on and on we go. The Cook PVI is a good way of looking at how the horserace numbers should impact the the result in a given state. Example FL PVI R+2 tells us that Florida will be 2 points more Republican than the winner gets in the horserace.

  190. SusyQue says:

    Mitt Romney like all of us, has a destiny. He was chosen for such a time as this. His expertise is creating businesses and thus creating jobs. Just what is needed to get us on our feet again. Many of you underestimate him. He has a record of exemplary work whenever he has had a job. He does what he needs to do well. When he wins the election he will have the heavy burden of turning this economy around. I am thankful we have Mitt Romney as our nominee. I have nothing but respect and admiration for him. He has always accomplished whatever challenge or charge he has been given; we can trust him to do what he needs to do to restore what has been stolen from us. God Bless Mitt and God Bless America.

  191. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Oklatex forever

  192. jason says:

    ‘ Jason – remember the time Vick took himself out of a playoff game? ”

    Yeah I remember.

    It was a tough playoff game. Vick was so terribly injured he trotted off the field like nothing happened. Tremendous grit.

  193. SoHope says:

    I have never let lisab’s opinions bother me to much.

    “#116 – #118?”

  194. Scooter Boy says:

    I still am feeling relatively good about this election. Obama has lost 7 points in one week in Gallup. Gallup even says that if they were using LV model Romney picks up 3-4 points. I believe Ras will start showing movement towards Romney again real soon. Don’t get discouraged. That’s what the MSM and bogus polls are trying to accomplish. I think internals are telling a different story. Forget polls and watch where the Candidates are going. I repeat, if this thing was already over Obama wouldn’t be spending so much time in Iowa and visiting Wisconsin. It doesn’t take a Mathematician to figure that out.

  195. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Tied with an incumbent President who has a 46% JA?

    Fine to me…

  196. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Tebow will supplant Sanchez around game five or so

  197. Mr.Vito says:

    “Oklatex forever”

    Ok, latex forever…

  198. jason says:

    I bet the Bears would get rid of Cutler faster than the Broncos traded Tebow if they could get Peyton Manning.

    Just saying…..

  199. Todd King says:

    Hi. Just noticed that Romney is down to ~30% on Intrade. Was wondering what you all thought of these odds. Do they accurately reflect his chances of beating Obama, or are they too low?

  200. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Cutler? Who the fuqq would want Cutler?

  201. Addisonst says:

    I just want to know whty winner tebow is a backup.
    Why isnt he a starter?

  202. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Id buy at 30

  203. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Oklahoma
    Texas
    Louisiana

    The new nation of Oklatex

  204. jason says:

    ” But cutler starts for an nfl team. Tebow doesnt.no team wants him to be their QB bc he can’t play QB ”

    BS. Tebow is back-up for Sanchez, wouldn’t be surprised if he takes over.

    And he could play for a bunch of teams, but right now he belongs to the Jets.

    In the NFL, you play for your own team until you get traded.

  205. Addisonst says:

    I’m thinking the eagles would want cutler.

  206. Stef says:

    Anyone stressing out about polls should remember that Al Gore had about a 10 pt lead on this day in 2000.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2000%20Bush%20v%20Gore.gif

  207. Addisonst says:

    Oh so he’s the 33rd best in the league?which isn’t right since the bear backupis better

  208. Emerica says:

    Intrade does seem a little bit bearish on Romney if you compare it to Fair model’s predictions

    Fair model has Obama taking 49.48% of the vote and has the deems taking 46.25% of the house vote.

  209. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    The Eagles?

    Why?

    Don’t they already have a third string quarterback?

  210. voice of reason says:

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/09/tea-partys-joe-walsh-r-il-giving-duckworth-a-run-for-the-money/

    The reason I think the election is strange is that the MSM is so disgusting, despicable, lying desperation mode that they will do anything ethical or moral consideration do not apply anymore. They have blown out any credibility to win this election. It is win at all costs at the democratic media. They don’t care if they appear to be the propaganda arm of the DNC, they want the Dems to win at any price.

    I think it is throwing people for a loop that Dem is good, GOP is bad 24/7 message from now until Nov. 6th. the American people do not have any immunity to this onslaught because they were brainwashed into thinking the media is fair and balanced.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/jack-welch-to-neil-cavuto-romneys-going-to-win-dont-get-weak-kneed-video/

  211. Brandon says:

    The Panthers need to keep this game close so the Giants don’t abandon the passing game so I can get some Cruz points….

  212. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Vince Young broke as a motherfuucker
    lol

  213. jason says:

    More importantly:

    “MONICA LEWINSKY is set to reveal shocking new secrets about her affair with ex-President BILL CLINTON in a bombshell $12 million tell-all, sources say.

    Now 39 and still looking for love, the infamous former White House intern desperately wants vengeance on the man who sullied her name, the sources add.

    “For years, Monica tried to protect Bill out of a misplaced sense of loyalty,” a close pal told The ENQUIRER. “But she no longer feels that way, and her memoir is his worst nightmare.”

    Monica’s already got several publishers interested in her tell-all tale, which will reveal graphic, never-before known details of her sleazy sex trysts with Clinton.”

    Sullied her name?

    And her dress….

  214. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    I dunno Voice

    We’ll have to see…

  215. Addisonst says:

    Vick vs cutler um not pretty. Not close.vick not good

  216. jason says:

    So far we know where he ejaculated and where he stuck his cigar.

    I can’t wait for the sleazy part….

  217. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    Obama appears on Uni-vision @9pm central. I can’t wait. Romney was well received last night.

  218. voice of reason says:

    propagandist polls. Maybe they are all fabricated.

  219. Mr.Vito says:

    “Vick vs cutler um not pretty. Not close.vick not good”

    Is addst really Caveman Lawyer?

  220. jason says:

    ” Vick vs cutler um not pretty. Not close.vick not good”

    I tink Fycuss is a leetle sauced.

  221. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Lewinsky out of money I suppose

  222. jason says:

    Ficus could be part Cherokee.

    Cutler hum heap good.

    Vick hum heap bad.

  223. jason says:

    225. For 12 million I could come up with a lot of sleaze.

  224. jason says:

    I must say something for Drudge.

    Not on the fence.

  225. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    I guess she was out of money and her choices came down to a sleazy tell all or blowing strangers for quarters

    A difficult decision for her no doubt…

  226. jason says:

    Breaking:

    Obama pretending to be a successful President on Univision!!!

  227. Brandon says:

    This Panthers D is awful.

  228. Mr.Vito says:

    “This Panthers D is awful.”

    But, their P is capital!

  229. jason says:

    Hey Bunu, a lot of fellow “conservatives” over at Huff Post?

  230. chorus of a-holes says:

    “But, their P is capital!”

    mmmm… indeed… quite…

  231. sickofdems says:

    #233………..Vito…you are a strange one.

  232. Eric Dondero says:

    Texas leaving the United States if Obama wins is not just pie in the sky wishful thinking. You should’ve seen all the SECESSION NOW! bumper stickers in early 2009.

    We Texans will move almost immediately to pull out.

    How much you wanna bet Oklahoma joins us.