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Obama Leads in CT, MN, MJ, NM and NC

As promised, YouGov released new polls for five solid Obama states this morning.

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (YouGov)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 39%

PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (YouGov)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 41%

PRESIDENT – NEW MEXICO (YouGov)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 39%

PRESIDENT – NEW JERSEY (YouGov)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

US SENATE – CONNECTICUT (YouGov)
Linda McMahon (R) 45%
Chris Murphy (D) 40%

US SENATE – MINNESOTA (YouGov)
Amy Klobuchar (D-inc) 49%
Kurt Bills (R) 34%

US SENATE – NEW MEXICO (YouGov)
Martin Heinrich (D) 50%
Heather Wilson (R) 35%

US SENATE – NEW JERSEY (YouGov)
Robert Menendez (D-inc) 43%
Joe Kyrillos (R) 29%

Interesting numbers for the US Senate race in Connecticut. The page also supposedly included a poll for Washington State, but the link appears to not be working. High Point University has a new poll with a rather lengthy timeframe showing Barack Obama up by 4% in North Carolina.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (High Point)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

This poll was done September 8-18 among 448 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:53 am
Filed under: General | Comments (414)

414 Responses to “Obama Leads in CT, MN, MJ, NM and NC”

  1. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    An electoral bloodbath! NC!

  2. BayernFan says:

    So now Romney is losing NC as well. Wonderful. What else can go wrong?
    Is Romney on vacation or something? The Middle East is boiling, and I dont hear anything from Romney about that.

  3. Phil says:

    He’s not losing NC.

    Relax

  4. steve craft says:

    I looked over the internals on that NC poll, and I came out with Romney 50 Obama 48. Chill out everybody! That’s just another poll that isn’t right.

  5. Michael 1 says:

    The ‘hair on fire’ response is always possible and even understandable, OR, you look at the internals of many of these polls (not all!) and say, Hmmmmm, most of these polls are reflecting a “voter mix” from 2008 with those proportions of Dems/Reps/Inds; so what then?

    I think it is reasonable to say, the 2008 voter mix (even anything close to it) is simply NOT going to be the proportion of voters going to the polls in November of 2012.

    Ergo, HOPE! (and not from Arkansas!)

  6. Wobbles says:

    10 day poll of 448 REGISTERED VOTERS.

    LOL

  7. Phil says:

    Look, both campaigns have unbelievable nightly tracking polling from each state. Unless you see Obama and Romney in NC, don’t sweat it.

  8. steve craft says:

    That Heartland Monitor poll has no internals shown. Show us the internals, and I’ll bet those numbers literally FLIP.

  9. GeauxLSU says:

    Not sure how much more I can stand of the hysteria here anytime a poll is released. It is no wonder the media is so influential and powerful. It’s because the people in this country are so gullible. Romney is basically tied in both Gallup and Rasmussen, yet most here thinks the race is over. Thank God for LSU football. The next 45+ days would be unbearable without the diversion.

  10. Hugh says:

    Over what period were these you gov polls done

  11. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    It’s 2008.

  12. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – NEW Jersey (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
    Mitt Romney (R) 39%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 49.2/42.8

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/new-jersey/

  13. steve craft says:

    No hysteria here. The trendlines are pretty clear: Romney’s got this under control.

  14. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – NEW MEXICO (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
    Mitt Romney (R) 41%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 52/46.9

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/new-mexico/

  15. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – MINNESOTA (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
    Mitt Romney (R) 41%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 49/46.1

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/minnesota/

  16. Mose says:

    That High Point poll of NC is one of the silliest polls I’ve seen in a season full of them.

  17. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 53%
    Mitt Romney (R) 39%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 52.9/44

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/connecticut/

  18. Annie says:

    No, Jenny – It’s 1980, a tear I remember well.

  19. steve craft says:

    17: Amen… check the internals. That’s a Romney +2 poll, easy.

  20. Annie says:

    Nake that typo into “year” -

  21. jan says:

    Know we know why the polls have been oversampling Democrats.

    GOP pollster John McLaughlin accuses Obama campaign/Dems of lobbying pollsters to sample more favorably for Dems.

    http://sulia.com/c/all-politics-causes/f/ef83b618-971d-4301-b4fb-bb51d0cd4269/?source=twitter …

  22. Annie says:

    Now, make that typo into “make”! I’m half asleep still!!

  23. Mose says:

    Worth noting that the You Gov polls are all of registered voters.

  24. steve craft says:

    These polls are just making dems more overconfident, which works in our favor. They will feel like they don’t even need to vote, as the election is already so in the bag. That will lead to the ultimate defeat of Oblubbler!

  25. bio mom says:

    I believe that poll was conducted as a student project at some college. I am not joking. Someone said that last night. Dave should never post junk like that.

  26. jan says:

    It’s everything I suspected it was. Obama needs to suppress the GOP vote by making them think it’s hopeless.

    McLaughlin:

    “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR (Interactive Voice Response) polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are “not enthusiastic” to vote or non voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this. Then there’s the debate between calling off a random digit dial of phone exchanges vs a known sample of actual registered voters. Most polls favoring Obama are random and not off the actual voter list. That’s too expensive” for some pollsters.

  27. DW says:

    American Research Group:
    A total of 48% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 48% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In August, 47% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 48% disapproved.

    When it comes to Obama’s handling of the economy, 46% of Americans approve and 51% disapprove. In August, 45% approved and 50% disapproved.

  28. Walt says:

    The economy continues to suck,
    middle east blowing up:

    “The wheels on the O bus
    fall off, off, off
    off, off off
    off, off, off
    the wheels on the O bus fall
    off, off, off
    all through the world.”

    BUT I see:

    “Nothing but blue polls,
    nothing but blue polls
    all day long…” :(

  29. tanda says:

    Ras has Romney winning indies 50-40.

    He has Rs 82-15 and Ds 10-87.

    If Romney moves to parity among partisans with Obama (gets 87% of Rs and only loses 10%), then margin improves by 3.5-4 points.

    Anybody think that won’t happen?

  30. steve craft says:

    27 — total bakfire, if that’s their plan… O’Bungler’s minions will stay home, thinking it’s in the bag. Cold reality will set it fast on election night! Romney is easily the best candidate the Rs have had since Reagan.

  31. RB says:

    Before everyone jumps ship a few things:
    1) The You Gov polls were done at the height of the DNC bounce 9/7-9/14
    2) The High Point was done 9/8-9/18(height of DNC)
    3)4 of the last 7 national polls have the race witin 1 point. The other 3 are Pew, NBC, and National Journal..,the most concerning being the NJ.
    4) Let’s see next week if purple polls show movement back to R

  32. DW says:

    again, these YouGov polls were done 9/7-9/14, right after the Dem convention.

    Again, I point out that in the five days after the GOP convention, only 11 polls were done, and almost none of battleground states. The five days after the Dem convention, now with these you gov polls, there were over 100 polls taken. See it for what it is.

    BREAKING:

    PPP(D)

    FLORIDA

    Romney 54
    Obama 40

    |
    |
    |
    |
    |
    |

    …but pay no attention to the date the poll was taken.

    10/31/2010

  33. steve craft says:

    Oops… I did the math wrong on that NC poll… it’s Romney 51, Obama 46! Even better.

  34. rdelbov says:

    Jan

    spot on!! Yup junk polls.

    yet we see a poll with reasonable internals Romney is either tied, within MOE or leads.

    Imagine that!!!

  35. Robbie says:

    Pay no attention to the YouGov polls. They’re aold and of RV only. They’re also internet as well.

  36. rdelbov says:

    Tanda that’s the historical pattern. That’s what happened in 2008.

  37. steve craft says:

    35 — yeah, people really need to bone up on their math skills. Do that, and these polls are easily 50% red, not 5%.

  38. DW says:

    Even RCP is ignoring the YouGov polls.

  39. Annie says:

    If depressing the Republican vote is the game the Obamanites are playing through poll manipulation (and the recent Gallup history indicates they are), then they are in for a big wake-up surprise on election day. Many Democrats do not tend to bother voting, while Republicans tend to (here’s that ancient saying) crawl over broken glass to get to the polls. And this year, Republicans are chomping at the bit to vote. Unless a whole lot of 2010 voters suddenly died (well, a lot of them were old folks) or changed their opinions on Obamacare and Obama, they will be there to vote.

  40. steve craft says:

    40 — But it’s *not* depressing the R vote. Everyone I know is more energized than ever! The R/R campaign is lighting people up. Best Republican candidate since Reagan (yes, even better then Bush II, which is saying something).

  41. ericinky says:

    Another very interesting article by Jay Cost about the state of the race and Obama’s standing historically speaking.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-historically-speaking-obama-isnt-strong-shape_652813.html

  42. Walt says:

    Earlier this A.M. flipping through Wasington DC stations (ABC, NBC, CBS) and there was a deluge of ads for both Romney and Obammer.

    The short news programs went like this:

    –Obama’s biggest regret is that he has not yet done immigration reform

    –Romney is down in the polls

    –Romnmey also has less money than Obama

    The longer segments then followed about

    –Lindsay Lohan

    –make up and hair

    –Cindy Crawford

    Then they go to the weather outside with the screaming throngs of yelling and waving people who are happy as larks

    Then they discuss what kind of bird you would rather be: woodpecker, robin, wren, etc.

    Then more weather (“yeah, holler, hoot”)

    Then after weather come out with this big story:

    “princes form other countries go under cover to try to find an American girl to be their bride.”

    Followed by other Hollywood stuff about stunning dresses, hair, makeup, jewelry, etc.

    –News that Obama will have a campaign rally in Woodbridge, VA

    –new products that will greatly enhance your football tailgating experience

    VAPID, VAPID, VAPID.

    Almost NO real NEWS of the world, nation, economic things.

    If someone who watched the morning news shows in the 1960′s left the planet in the early 1960′s and just returned to earth today and flipped on the morning news programs today–THEY WOULD BE STUNNED AS TO HOW IT HAS CHANGED!

  43. Hunter says:

    If Romney is ahead on Indies by high single to low double digits, especially in lop-sided D polls, Romney is WINNING…

    PLEASE…Get that through your heads…

  44. Tim says:

    So, let me get this straight. The polls are all wrong, Romney is actually winning, and the media is trying to suppress the GOP vote by over-reporting all these false polls.

    Okay………….

  45. steve craft says:

    TIE GAME.

  46. steve craft says:

    45 – Correct.

  47. steve craft says:

    https://www.mittromney.com/donate

    Best money you’ll spend all morning.

  48. terry says:

    “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting.”
    !!

    Is this speculation or inference, or does McLaughlin actually know something that supports this? If the latter, that’s a bombshell. I’ve thought that many pollsters have been oversampling cellphone-only households, which explains their unreasonable Dem sampling without accusing them of intentionally skewing their polls. If McLaughlin is right, and they’re letting Democratic operatives dictate how they weigh their polls, then they’re being much more perfidious.

  49. GA Voter says:

    #35 and #38 Yep. Poll numbers can be manipulated. In the finance world, we ask excutives what number they are comfortable with and as a financial analyst, we back into that number. Understanding, balance sheets, timing, risks, reporting to SEC, etc. This is a game. And once in a while, it edges to the cliff.

    BUT, with polling the MOE is important. Statistical standard deviations from the norm need to be considered. Too much variation (MOE) and the poll is toast. How to “correct” for the right outcome that you want? Stack the % in the math equation.

    The one outcome they want is emotion from the GOP voter. Stay home is their only hope at this point.

    The polls should start truing up so that the polling company can save face. If it shows Obama ahead, then Romney is truly in trouble. Until that point, it is a manipulation of each variable going into the math equation.

  50. DW says:

    45 – most polls are using a 2008 turnout sample. The GOP will never win the presidency again if the 2008 turnout model is enforced. No way after Obama has destroyed the economy, made us a laughingstock overseas does he get the 2008 turnout model. Some of these polls are going beyond the 2008 model.

    So I don’t junk all polls, just the polls that are clearly junk.

  51. Phil says:

    YouGov to release a Texas Poll later this afternoon!!

  52. Tim says:

    #50:
    There is NO major poll showing Romney ahead. Rasmussen Tracking, which so many here love to quote, even shows Romney behind.

    My guess as to why that would be is because he is behind.

  53. Sean says:

    For what it’s worth, I got an email yesterday inviting me to a Romney rally in Denver on Sunday. Sounds like Romney may be making more appearances soon.

  54. bio mom says:

    Ignire any poll that includes days before Sept. 11. Height of the DNC bounce.

  55. Hunter says:

    Tim…

    You…

    are…

    clueless…

    Please, continue with the kool-aid…

  56. bio mom says:

    This schizophrenic site is not even worth reading anymore.

  57. Marv says:

    Attempting to suppress GOP voters in 2012 with fake polls is akin to attempting to suppress the Allied Forces at Normandy……..no matter what, we’re taking back the country. That is all there is to it.

  58. steve craft says:

    The only polls you can read with a straight face are the Ras polls. Their methodology is state-of-the-art… makes every other firm look like rank amateurs. Mark my words…

  59. DW says:

    My guess is that Gallup will not change today and stay a tie. But its also possible Gallup will show a 1 point lead either way. But the point is, if Gallup, a seven day tracker, still using Registered voters, says the race is a tie, and its in general agreement with Rasmussen, a 3 day tracker, then Romney is in good shape and Obama is in trouble.

  60. BayernFan says:

    Are internet polls inherently bad? Or are there good ones as well? I assume it is a specific methodology issue.

    I dont think the DRI this time around will be as bad as it was in 2008. But I do think it will be worse than D1 or D2.

    Dems will get a healthy turnout this time around. Dems have a good track record in Presidential election years. GOP GOTV efforts are inconsistent at best.

    My guess is a D4 turnout.

  61. Brandon says:

    Rasmussen has Baldwin up 49-46 over Thompson. That one is slipping away too.

  62. Phil says:

    D+4 and we lose.

    D+3 advantage D

    D+2 50-50

    D+1 or better – we win

  63. DW says:

    61 – even at D4, with Romney getting the better of the independents results in a very close result and possible Romney win.

  64. BayernFan says:

    So last week I was driving through a heavily depressed AA section of Indianapolis (heading west on 38th street east of the Fairgrounds…. around Arlingtion Ave).

    As I was passing a big AA church, there was a huge placard next to this well traveled street. It was a black and white photo from the 50s or 60s depicting two AA lynching victims. Gruesome.

    Superimposed were the words:

    THIS IS WHY VOTING IS IMPORTANT!

  65. Marv says:

    DW,

    I think we see a 1 point Romney lead today or tomorrow in Gallup. The clue is the 3 day Gallup JA tracker of Adults. There was a 4 point swing against Obama yesterday to get to 46/48. That implies a possible strong Romney day or two has rolled on the tracker of LV’s over the last day or two.

    Another clue is that Obama lost a point in the RAS tracker this morning.

  66. DW says:

    63 – it depends on the independents, and how tightly each candidate hold on to their own party voters.

  67. John says:

    Three national polls out today:

    Heartland Monitor Poll (National Journal)
    Obama 50 Romney 43
    but too chicken to publish the internals

    Rupe-Reason
    Obama 52 Romney 45
    D’s +8
    http://reason.com/assets/db/13481953038600.pdf

    Reuters/Ipsos
    Obama 48 Romney 43
    Ds+10

    When is this crap of oversampling going to stop?

  68. steve craft says:

    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=AAH

    That’s the map, right there. Urefutable.

  69. steve craft says:

    Sorry… erefutable.

  70. DW says:

    68 – the day after election day. They are all in for Obama and will do all they can to discourage Republicans from voting.

    If called on it after the election, they can say they were led astray by the bradley effect or some other excuse. Look this is a war, and we knew it was going to be a war, so lets fight and win.

  71. DW says:

    Even counting all these bogus polls with D+10 samples, the RCP average for Obama still is only at 48.4. If the electorate was overwhelmingly ready to give this clown a second term, then you would think D+10 samples would put him over 50%

  72. Ray says:

    Rasmussen Swing State: O 46, R 45. Both lose a point. After four straight Obama lead nights coming on, I have a Romney night in this last night as well (a strong Romney night fell off).

  73. steve craft says:

    Also, Romney is a *steal* @ $30 on Intrade right now. Just bought 10 shares.

  74. Robbie says:

    56.Tim…

    You…

    are…

    clueless…

    Please, continue with the kool-aid…

    Comment by Hunter — September 21, 2012 @ 10:33 am

    Yeah. Who are you going to believe? Me? Or your lying eyes?

  75. Ben Romney says:

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney leads President Barack Obama 53.9 to 38.7 percent with 7.4 percent undecided.Respondents were also asked to evaluate Obama’s job performance. Overall, 42.9 percent approve, with 25.8 percent saying they “strongly approve” and 17.1 percent saying they “somewhat approve.” Of the 57.1 percent who disapprove, 45.0 percent say they “strongly disapprove.”

    http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/event/article/id/70313/

  76. BayernFan says:

    In 2008… many believed that Dems were being oversampled as well. They werent.

    Could it be that maybe this is repeating? Could it be that Dem turnout will be close to or even God forbid higher than 2008.

    Perhaps the reason we are seeing D8 and D10 samples is because that is what D voters are telling pollsters…. as they did in 2008.

  77. DW says:

    not sure if this poll has been mentioned here yet:

    NV_04

    Tarkanian (R) 45
    Horsfor (D) 42

    SUSA

    But this is one that all the toupees think is lean or likely D.

  78. steve craft says:

    77 — Now *there’s* the national poll we’ve been looking for! Hot damn.

  79. BayernFan says:

    In a couple weeks, early absentee voting will begin in Indiana.

    I work right next to the City County Building in downtown Indianapolis.

    4 years ago there were early voting lines outside the building of mostly AA and young voters running a block long. Almost every damm day.

    I will check this year and report back on what the lines look like this year.

  80. Surfnut says:

    Again, please step away from the computer, ipad, iphone, and crack pipe.

    Truthfully, this race was never as “close” as the pundits were telling us. This has all the trimmings of a 1996-type shellacking. The only hope now is that Obama’s romp will keep the Senate Democratic, and cut away from the GOP majority in the House.

    The long knives are now out in force. No winning candidate has his own circular firing squad. The Dems are fired up and unified; the GOP, not so much.

  81. steve craft says:

    82 — Romney is *no* Dole! Best candidate since Reagan. Prove me wrong. Can’t be done.

  82. Annie says:

    49 – terry said “they’re letting Democratic operatives dictate how they weigh their polls, then they’re being much more perfidious.” That is exactly what they are doing, and the case with Gallup is an example of just how the Obama people function in the Chicago strong-arming. The head of Gallup was brought into the White House by Axelrod when Gallup was showing good numbers consistently for Romney, and told to adjust their method. Now, whether Gallup complied or not, I do not know, but the DOJ has now brought a lawsuit against Gallup. Obama and his minions must think this is a Communist nation circa 1950. Or is that just what they want to change us into?

  83. rdelbov says:

    I have contended for months that NV4 will go GOP

  84. Born Buckeye says:

    Damn Cornyn, McConnell et al for bailing on Heather Wilson! She is a great candidate who can beat the lackluster Dem if she got national support… Jesus, I don’t get DC Reps thinking…in light of the Missouri debacle, winning seats like NM are imperative! Yet, they seem willing to piss away a winnable race. Gov. Martinez shows NM is winnable. McConnell, Boehner and Romney better wake the f*ck up!

  85. Phil says:

    Smurfnut

    I’d like to hook you up with our Jew hating poster, bunu. He wants Israel vaporized. You, on the other hand, want to bury your head in the sand while it happens.

    You’d like each other. You’re his kind of Jew.

  86. BayernFan says:

    77 was a poll of South Dakota, not a national poll

  87. Hunter says:

    78…

    Good…

    Can you leave now, please?…

    And take Robbie with you?…

    Good grief…

    What a bunch of pansies you guys are…

    And stupid, to boot…

    Actually believing this MSM crap…

    Yes, BF, given the state of this country there is an actual surge to Obama even though Romney is winning Indies by high single to low double digits…

    idiot…

  88. DW says:

    Again, please step away from the computer, ipad, iphone, and crack pipe.

    Truthfully, this race was never as “close” as the pundits were telling us. This has all the trimmings of a 1988-type shellacking. The hope now is that Romney’s romp will flip the Senate Republican, and expand the GOP majority in the House.

    The long knives are now out in force. No winning candidate has his own circular firing squad. The GOP is fired up and unified; the DEMs, not so much.

  89. rdelbov says:

    Bayerfan

    I saw the same thing in 2008 here in Memphis.

    Will not happen this year.

  90. Wobbles says:

    I am going to write-in Hillary for President this time.

  91. Phil says:

    Not going to happen in Texas. The Houston area minorities and young hopey change libs lined up to vote for Obama and he barely carried Harris County which includes a good portion of the Houston suburbs. Not this time. Harris County goes Romney by at least 4 to 5 points.

  92. Hunter says:

    Distrust of media hits 60%…

    New high…

    Of course, Bayernfan, Robbie, etc. are part of the 40%…

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/157589/distrust-media-hits-new-high.aspx

  93. DW says:

    “Perhaps the reason we are seeing D8 and D10 samples is because that is what D voters are telling pollsters…. as they did in 2008.”

    Uh, no, if this were the case it would be emperically observable. In 2008 all the hope/change stuff, women fainting when Obama spoke, independents and even supposed Republican swooning. We just don’t see that now. Romney keeps leading among independents, and there is simply not the energy for Obama that there was 4 years ago. Its just not there to support the answer to your question.

  94. DW says:

    3693 votes now received in NC:

    Party Reg
    Dem. 34.6%
    Rep. 46.8%
    None/Oth 18.6%
    Age
    18-29 7.2%
    30-44 12.0%
    45-59 19.2%
    60+ 61.6%
    Race
    White 84.4%
    Black 11.8%
    Other/None 3.8%
    Gender
    Female 54.3%
    Male 45.1%
    Unknown 0.6%

  95. rdelbov says:

    Poll after poll shows this fact

    1st RV part of poll will show an Obama lead or close race

    2nd LV part of poll will show an smaller Obama lead or larger Romney lead (depends on small)

    This fact has not changed all year.

    Yet MSM is touting D passion?

    Adult poll favor Ds
    RV polls favor Ds a bit less then adults
    LV polls favor Ds a bit less then RV

    That’s how you illustrate voter passion. If an adult national poll had Romney ahead by 10% and a LV poll had Obama ahead by 5% then that’s voter passion?

    The turnout mojo is on the R side in 2012. Look at the polls.

  96. BayernFan says:

    Hunter…

    after 2008 I am not ready to discoount the possiblity that there is a real under the radar (to many of us) GOTV paradigm among Dem voters… especially blacks hispanics and poor whites that is going on.

    That sign I described in my post 65 above really shocked me. It was a hateful racist ignorant placard. Prominently displayed. Something like that in a white area would get on the news. Maybe I was the only white person to have seen it. Who knows.

    But that is how AAs think. And they act on that ignorant vile thinking.

    They will get to the polls. They did in 2008, and they know that they got brutha elected. I dont think that they will want to leave brutha hangin against whitey.

    And Romney isnt doing too well with hispanics either. And there are more of them. The Dems know the numbers in every patch of quilt. Those racists know it and brag about it.

    We will see.

  97. DW says:

    PURPLE STRATEGIES

    Florida

    Romney 48
    Obama 47

  98. Phil says:

    We will get Florida.

  99. DW says:

    Colorado

    Romney 45
    Obama 48

  100. DW says:

    Ohio

    Romney 44
    Obama 48

  101. DW says:

    Virginia

    Romney 43
    Obama 46

  102. DW says:

    North Carolina

    Romney 46
    Obama 48

  103. SusyQue says:

    Last night, D. Morris said to ignore the polls that give ooo a five+ lead over Mitt. He said they use the #’s from 2008 on purpose to mislead R voters.

  104. DW says:

    strange that they would have Romney up in FL and down in NC

  105. DW says:

    Arizona

    Romney 48
    Obama 45

  106. Bobby says:

    They clearly show it is an MOE race.

  107. Annie says:

    Surfnut – Are you joking comparing this election to 1996??? How old are you? That year the GOP’s nominee was a tired old war horse who had been the Leader of the Senate for years – Dole – whose “turn” it was. Dole was a WWII vet with a gimpy arm. Clinton by that time had the GOP led Congress driving the budget and the economy was going great guns. Dole was what is known in politics as a “place holder.” He was run as the candidate knowing he would lose. Kinda like McCain was in 2008… Those GOP “off years” (and the Dems had such a year in 1984, for instance) were a period of getting set-up for the real race to come the following cycle.

    Obama’s tenure as POTUS, in a way, was a period of place keeping – when most in the higher echelons of the political and economic world knew the economic situation would be in melt-down. Despite the early associations with FDR, Obama was never meant to stick around and solve the huge problems. However, I don’t think people really understood how he could make the situation so much worse. Then, again, how could they not – what would this far-left wing junior senator know about how to manage the American economy or to be a commander-in-chief? In that regard, Obama is a worse candidate than Dole.

    No, this election cycle is far more like 1980′s, when Reagan was vilified as a dumb cowboy (a two-term governor) who “shot first and aimed later” (sound familiar?) – and who was down over 10 points to Jimmy Carter in polling right up until a few days before election day. Why, there was even upheaval in the Middle East at that time, too…

  108. Hunter says:

    What’s even stranger is that after all the nay-saying and this election being written off already by Bayernfan and others, Romney is down by 3 points, on average, in these Purple Strategy polls…

    ALL IS LOST PEOPLE…

    Please…whatever you do…DO NOT VOTE for Romney…

    Good grief…

    Pansies…

  109. dblaikie says:

    Real Clear Politics shouldn’t count a poll that won’t reveal its internals.

    I have a theory about when this over sampling will end. When gallup moves to it’s likely voter screen (if they do) they are so well respected that MSM will not be able to ignore it. And if Gallup continues to show a tight race with Obama well under 50 in his reelect. It will lay bare these bogus polls. The media can diss Rasmussen as a Republican hack. But they can’t do that with Gallup. Bear in mind it has been less than a week since Gallup revealed that the bounce was gone.

  110. DW says:

    internals from purple: DRI

    CO: 34/33/29
    FL: 37/38/24
    OH: 38/36/26
    VA: 34/32/30
    NC: 40/35/23
    AZ: 31/38/29

  111. Eric Dondero says:

    Umm, silly question here. Am I the only one who clicked on that Mitchell Reports link on the South Dakota results? My gosh, you all! Romney has opened up a 15 point lead in SD; had only a 6 point lead in July.

    That’s huge.

  112. Hunter says:

    Surfnut…

    Here is an excerpt from NY Times on Obama complaining about the media…

    You friggin clown…He’s as spineless as you are…

    But apparently that’s not how it looks from the Oval Office; the president thinks he’s not getting a fair shot from the press. The New York Times reports:

    The news media have played a crucial role in Mr. Obama’s career, helping to make him a national star not long after he had been an anonymous state legislator. As president, however, he has come to believe the news media have had a role in frustrating his ambitions to change the terms of the country’s political discussion.

  113. Eric Dondero says:

    Okay, in the last couple days, we’ve seen a poll out of Georgia with Romney ahead by a humongous 21 points. A week before that, he’s out in Oklahoma by 32. And now this poll out of South Dakota Romney up by 15.

    Are we seeing a trend from the Red States here?

    What does this mean for the popular vote total on election night? Massive Romney votes from the Red States?

  114. Surfnut says:

    Today’s Gallup tracker should push the RCP to Obama +4. It’s been a few elections since I remember a slew of swing state polls and national polls that have been so one-sided.

    RMoney is toast!

  115. RottiLargo says:

    http://www.mcall.com/news/local/eastpenn/mc-east-penn-porn-book-complaints-20120920,0,4870263,full.story

    It’s cute that people cannot differentiate between censorship and common sense.

    Lordy day, no wonder we’re so far gone as a society

  116. Phil says:

    So is Israel, but, of course, you’re fine with that.

    Star of David my ass.

  117. Hunter says:

    Surfnut…

    You are correct…

    They are one-sided…

    They all over-poll Dems…

    But pay no attention to the fact that Romney is kicking the crap out of Obama with the Indies…

    Run along now to grab you Latte with my tax dollars…

    47% Mooch…

  118. kim from ohio says:

    @ 94 Hunter- The reason that so many Rs distrust the media is because they have been convinced that there is a liberal media bias. While I’m not suggesting that the MSM is completely unbiased, Rush, Fox Hannity et al make it seem MUCH worse than it really is. Rs begin to feel victimized and since they WANT to believe everything that Fox, Rush etc have to say, they then assume that since sources from the MSM are not reporting it, they are in the tank for Obama. Reality is that those Right-wing outlets are reporting stuff that is twisted unfairly against Obama (i.e. Fox News reporting about the picture Obama took with the pirate as if it had been taken recently when it in fact was from 2009) Rs clamor over why the MSM does not report certain issues without first stopping to consider whether these supposed issues even have merit.

  119. Scott says:

    #107- DW
    I live in Western NC and in the past week ,I have seen a ton of Obama advertisements.Not many for the Mittster.Before the past week, the TV had been Obama-free.Something has changed in this State.
    The Purple Strategies crosstabs show that 11% of NC Republicans will vote for Obama.I say that % is not even close!

  120. Hunter says:

    Kim…

    Do you actually believe there is no media bias?…

  121. DW says:

    Dissapointed with the numbers PS shows from NC and AZ, but FL is good. I had resisted the temptation yesterday to move FL from wobbly R to wobbly D and it turns out that was correct. But these others are not bad numbers for Romney considering the high number of undecideds. Sounds like voters just waiting to get comfortable with Mitt, but decidedly not going to go with Obama.

    Obama only at 46% in VA. In the end Mitt wins VA 52/47

  122. BayernFan says:

    Here is the deal with me….

    Yes I am concerned about the polls….. D’uh… they are showing a turnout similar to 2008. Who is to say that wont happen again? Besides, the demographics are worse for the GOP than they were in 2008.

    But even the polls dont matter to me that much. Neither does the lack of huge orgasmic Obama rallies with fainting women….

    All I care about and all I want to see is whether there are going to be lines of black hispanic and poor white voters wrapped around the block voting absentee… again.

    Those NC voter registration/early turnout numbers that DW posted are encouraging. 4 years ago those numbers were heavy Dem IIRC.

  123. Born Buckeye says:

    #110: Annie, you’re nuts if you think this election will be like 1980. The electorate was much whiter then… We can nothing for granted this year and should assume another massive turnout of minorities for Obama. Even if it doesn’t happen, it’s the ultimate incentive to get whites off their duffs and vote en masse for Romney. Like 2008, it’s very much an election along racial lines.

  124. SusyQue says:

    Video of Stevens Murder: What Really Happened

    Video which some news outlets claimed had showed Libyans trying to
    save Ambassador Stevens turns out to show the opposite.

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/160160#.UFyH4xiJVqd

  125. Scott says:

    DW
    I have solved the Purple Strategies problem with NC. PS says that 24% of the electorate will be black. The actual % ,as per the 2008 exit polls, is 20-22%.

  126. Hunter says:

    Bayernfan…

    Your current thinking is the EXACT result the media is hoping to get from R’s…

    If you actually believe this is 2008 all over again, given everything that’s going on this country…

    Then stay home, don’t vote and just check out for the next 60 days…

    They won, YOU lost…

    You truly have your head in the sand…

  127. Ray says:

    ARG Sept 17-20: Obama 49, Romney 47
    761 Likely voters

    Obama wins Dems 90-6
    Romney wins Reps 92-5
    Romney wins Indies 50-43

    Suggests a D+6 sample. 47% of LVs say would never vote for O, 44% say the same of Romney.

  128. Wobbles says:

    RCP loaded its averages with a Nation poll and some other polling firm. These polls appear to be D plus 8 at a min.

  129. SusyQue says:

    Rass Report

    46% Expect Romney, GOP To Cut Spending, Not So Sure on Taxes

    Voters continue to think tax and spending hikes are more likely under President Obama and the Democrats than under President Romney and the Republicans. But most still don’t expect tax cuts if the GOP wins the White House and Congress, although spending cuts are now viewed as more likely.

    Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Thompson (R) 46%
    Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin now has a slight lead over former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s volatile U.S. Senate race.

    Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

    Romney May Be the End of the Line for the Republican Establishment By Scott Rasmussen

    Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Romney 46%, Obama 45%

    SWING STATE DAILY TRACKING: Obama 46%, Romney 45%

    Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 45%

    Iowa: Romney 47%, Obama 44%

    47% Say Their Home is Worth More Than What They Owe

  130. Dylan says:

    Thompson has always struck me as fuddy duddy. Never understood the supposed allure to the WI electorate

  131. Polaris says:

    The Rasmussen top number is dissapointing, but that’s because a sample that should have been strong Romney looks to have had rather weak GOP support for Romney (Romney won’t lose 15% of the GOP on election day I promise you). Still it’s a MOE race.

    This is psy-ops. I am glad that Romney’s pollster is *finally* coming out and calling it what it is.

    Obama/Dem party has been pressuring the pollsters to use models favorable to him all year. There is only one media pollster that refused: Gallup.

    They got sued by the Dept of Justice

    “Nice Polling Compnay you’ve got there. Shame if something happened to it.”

    Polling—the Chicago way.

    That means we are going to have to accept we are lone wolves in the wilderness. We either agree that this is 2008 again or we do not. I think it’s pretty clear just from empirical evidence on the ground that this is no 2008 type election.

    Thus if you don’t believe it’s 2008 again then don’t believe it. I realize this is hard esp after 2008 but it has to be done. Otherwise the MSM will drive you to despair…and that IS their plan to suppress the GOP vote. I’m not just saying that: Romney’s pollster is.

    -Polaris

  132. Marv says:

    11.8% of the mail-in ballots in NC so far are African-American.

  133. dblaikie says:

    126 said, ” they are showing a turnout similar to 2008. Who is to say that won’t happen again.”

    These kind of inane comments make me shake my head with the lack of memory or perhaps brain power with some posters. COME ON, in 2008 Obama was the messiah, the person who was going to save the earth. He was the one guy who could attract hundreds of thousands in Berlin. Democratic enthusiasm was at a all time high. Young people for the first time were actually going to vote in droves. The media totally bought into the propoganda. And with all that hoopla it is +7 dem. TO THINK THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN AGAIN IS PLAIN STUPID. So forgive me when I see a poll that takes its model as 2008 I say it is crap.

    Oh well, it is like the nurse who once told me, “You can’t change stupid, you can only sedate it.”

  134. Scott says:

    DW
    I trust Purple Strategies and believe they are conscientious and sincere. BUT,their NC data is beyond bizarre.
    PS has Obama +2 with Indies,yet in 2008,McCain carried Indies by 21%.In 2008, Obama received 5% of the GOP vote. In its poll, PS has 11% of Republicans voting for the O Man.

  135. kim from ohio says:

    Of course there is a media bias. However, it is nowhere as pervasive as Rush would have people believe. He makes his living fanning those flames. The problem is (and I see this with my parents who solely watch to the right Fox News) when you ASSUME that what you are hearing from Fox is correct, and you then hear what is reported, or not reported (code for “swept under the rug by the MSM who is in bed with Obama”) you therefore assume that there is bias on the other side.

  136. steve craft says:

    Dang…. bought 10 shares of Romney at Intrade earlier today at $30… now it’s at $28… :-(

  137. Phil says:

    Gallup tied nationally means Obama poses NC.

    That’s not even in question.

  138. Polaris says:

    #136 If that pattern holds, I recall, that down. WAY down from 2008.

    -Polaris

  139. michael corleone says:

    although i generally agree with Polaris that the weighting is skewed, we said this same thing in 2008.

    maybe dems really our more jazzed. we saw this in 2010 — ras has Angle up by 5 on election day and Reid won by 5. He also had Buck up in CO and he lost. he also had Rossi up in WA and he lost.

    And Dick Morris said we would win all those states.

  140. DW says:

    138 – yeah, something is probably screwy with their AZ poll (the first they attempted of that state). Even PPP(D) couldn’t get closer than Romney +9 the Sunday after the DNC!

  141. jason says:

    Kim in Ohio is really a joker.

    Foxnews? Rush and Hannity?

    While the Marxists have ABC, NBC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, NPR, PBS, Reuters, AP, Yahoo News, and virtually all the printed press NYT, LAT, USA Today, Time, Newsweek etc. against the editorial page of the WSJ (and even that includes Peggy Noonan and other Obama sycophants).

    It’s sad to think there might be enough morons like Kim to elect Obama.

  142. RB says:

    Purple Strategies seem like fair polls given where we are-they may be off somewhat in the margins, but they show a close race, with work needing done in OH .

    Reason Roupe was run by Princeton research, correct me if I am wrong, but aren’t they the same gang claiming yesterday that the Dems were ‘poised to take the house’

  143. BayernFan says:

    Hunter my head is not in the sand. It is on the top of my head, eyes wide open, waitng to see who is voting. That is all that matters.

    Polls that show Obama winning, and the lack of rallies and energy that show that Obama is not as strong…. none of that matters all that much.

    Who is showing up to vote?

    You and I are on the same side.

  144. hugh says:

    kim dont be so naive even dems when polled feel that the new media is liberal give it a break. Also rush, hannity, chris mathews etc are not part of the news. They are pundits with shows to appeal to various segments of the population. ABC NBC CBS are all liberal leaning and even most dems you of course excluded agree with that.

  145. jason says:

    Win or lose, Rommey will get to 50 before election day. Bet on it.

  146. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    #139

    ??????

    Everyone who reads that post is now dumber for it.

  147. Polaris says:

    Everyone. NC is not a swing state. If you don’t think it’s 2008 again and accept this is a MOE race, then don’t sweat NC. I think the NC early vote is interesting (more when we get more numbers and walkins) but only to see trends and use as an indicator for neighboring VA.

    Obama *barely* carried NC when he was at the height of his popularity and the GOP was depressed to historic levels. It won’t happen again…at least not anytime soon.

    -Polaris

  148. Marv says:

    Polaris,

    I expected a better top line number in RAS too. A stronger night among Republicans for Romney would have done the trick. I’ll take closing to within 1 point in both the daily tracker and the swing state tracker.

    I still think Romney will take a 1 point lead in Gallup today or tomorrow.

  149. jason says:

    Kim is not naive, just a dumb troll.

  150. BayernFan says:

    136….

    is that a lot relative to 2008?

  151. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    where are the republican or conservative pollsters? why aren’t they using a different model and posting their poll results?

  152. DW says:

    At least Purple Strategies has Romney up in FL. So then sure up NC if needed, go hard after VA and OH, and then if Rasmussen is right on either NH or IA, we have 270.

  153. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    will flip florida?

  154. John says:

    Purple Strategies Poll approval numbers:

    Colorado 45%
    Florida 46%
    Ohio 46%
    Virginia 45%
    North Carolina 45%

    The door is open for Romney to capitalize here.

    Also, how does Romney lead in Independents in Ohio by 10% and trail 48-44%

  155. janz says:

    A bit of advice from the Boston Herald: How the truth hurts.

    The next 46 days will be filled with claims, counter-claims, statistics and polls. You’ll hear more excuses from the Obama campaign about the current mess they’ve created than from a teenager who blew off a term paper.

    This election year, more than any other I’ve ever seen, you need to ignore it all and go with your gut. You’ll make the right call in November.

  156. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    NC – Romney 51
    Obama 46

    Red Polls everywhere.

    Tee hee

  157. jason says:

    ” you therefore assume that there is bias on the other side.”

    LOL

    90% + of the MSM are Democrats.

    I think in 2008 contributions to Obama ran like 8-1 vs. McCain.

    Foxnews actually bends backwards to present opposite views, they have a bunch of liberals too.

    You don’t see that at MSNBC. And if you call Morning Joe a conservative, I will vomit.

  158. Polaris says:

    #144 Yes, but in 2008 we also ignored the empirical evidence that indicated that this time there really was a long of young interest, we minimized the impact of the fiscal collapse, and finally and most importantly we ignored the DRI warnings from Rasmussen as “impossible”. None of that is true this time.

    I also note in 2008 we were completely alone. Even Rasmussen was heavy Obama (well starting in October). Not true this time.

    It’s hard to stick your neck out after getting burned so badly last time, but we have to do it. *sigh*

    -Polaris

  159. Marv says:

    #159 John,

    The time honored political maxim is that on election day, the incumbent generally gets about what his approval number is, maybe add a point two.

    Isn’t that about the way it goes, folks.

  160. dblaikie says:

    144 Let’s once again turn our memories on. Back in 2008 we were upset with Rasmussen who had it +5 and he was dead on. I am sorry with his over approval rating mired between 47 to 50% to think that it is going to be like 2008 again is plain (forgive me) stupid. Come on, in 2008 Obama was going to save the earth. The best he can say in 2012 is, “its not my fault.”

    He may still win. The MSM may pull a fast one once again. But their beyond frenzied efforts to kill Romney early reveals their desperation — not their confidence. To buy into a scenario that it is 2008 once again is to buy into their propaganda at best or drink their cool aid at worst.

  161. Polaris says:

    About the purple strategies polls: Just because a firm may be honest and generally do good work doesn’t mean that all their polls will be good. In fact one of the first things you learn about true random sampling is about 1:10 of your polls will be BAD for no reason at all. You accept this and move on.

    -Polaris

  162. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    you therefore assume that there is bias on the other side.

    Comment by kim from ohio — September 21, 2012 @ 11:44 am

    Unless you have been living on mars for the last 4 years, to assume anything else would qualify you for the rubber room.

  163. Patk says:

    Wow. Arizona is closer than we thought. Romney 48. Obama 45.

  164. Marv says:

    #168 IP,

    I was based at LaGuardia for year once, and as far as I was concerned, that was Mars.

  165. janz says:

    Amidst all these less than optimistic polls the following article is a bit of an upper:

    Why Romney is going to romp over Obama in November

  166. Hunter says:

    For all of you freaking out about Romney’s cash situation…

    (Of course, because you listen to MSM)…

    Ace has a very good run down and update…

    http://ace.mu.nu/

  167. No Tribe says:

    Why is Reason mag, of all places, going with a D+8 poll. My gawd.

  168. Polaris says:

    #156 You aren’t the only one asking that. Erik the Red(state) is starting to ask the same thing.

    Of course the problem is most pollsters are essentially “tweed academenics” often with advanced degrees in mathematics. That means they are LIBERAL. Did you catch Hewitt’s interview with Marist’s head pollster? He’s typical of the breed. Not only that but pollsters have a pack mentality. They don’t like being all by themselves even if they are right. Scott Rasmussen is an exception to this (and even he doesn’t trust his own DRI of R+4). Gallup of course has such a prestigious history that they can afford to be ‘alone’…but even that got them sued by the Chicago Mob Dept of Justice.

    -Polaris

  169. BayernFan says:

    Arent these D8 and such samples being arrived at because that is what the LV screens are saying?

  170. DW says:

    171–I am wary of any article that says that AAs are going to abandon Obama at the polls. That writer goes so far as to suggests that BLACKS are engaging in the bradley effect when pollsters call them. They are too ashamed to say they have given up on Obama. Now its true that they may not show up in the same numbers as in 2008, but those AAs who vote will be 95% for Obama, and that you can count on. I agree its an open question as to their turnout.

  171. DW says:

    175 – even if that is the case, which I am not sure about, all a pollster has to do in, say, OH is make more calls in Cleveland than they should, and bingo–big dem lead in the sample. Not hard to do. They did it in 2004 exit polling on the national level–only polled big cities, much to the disappointment of President Kerry.

  172. Polaris says:

    #175 MacLaughlin (Romney’s pollster explains it this morning in NRO The Campaign Spot). Essentially the LV screen is part of it, but almost all of them have skewed sampling methedologies that select for Democrats. The article below is well worth reading.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/327982/what-john-mclaughlin-sees-polls-right-now

    -Polaris

  173. Marv says:

    #171 janz,

    The author, pen name Perry Drake, is estimating a big decline in the African-American participation in 2012. The empirical evidence that he is correct can be found in the NC mail-in ballots returned so far. They comprise 11.8% of voters so far.

  174. janz says:

    A stark reason, from Zero Hedge, why this upcoming election is so important: Decentralize or die.

    With the announcement of the private Federal Reserve’s open ended (infinite) QE3 stimulus package, the European Central Banks print and buy bond scheme, along with Japan’s own QE initiative, what we are faced with is a spectacular global race to the bottom. A battle of currency devaluation is about to ensue, and the first casualties will be everyday citizens whose cost of living is soon to skyrocket even further than it already has in the past four years.

  175. Polaris says:

    #179 By point of reference, AA vote in NC in 2008 was about 23% more or less.

    -Polaris

  176. rdelbov says:

    bayerfan

    PPP KOS RV national screen
    420D
    350R
    230I

    PPP KOS LV national screen

    440D
    380R
    180I

    one week in national polling KOS/PPP is 42D-35R RV and the next its 44D-38R LV screen

    Its all Jensen’s mojo magic that he decided +6D LV.

    I note that one LV screen found 38D-30R while Jensen found it 44D-38R. I think Pew found it as 42D-30R LV screen

    Its all in the imigination of pollsters.

    Except RAS polls week in and week out for LV. Gallup polls party ID but does not prescreen.

    The other pollsters decide what their LV models should be in Party ID. So their guess is as good as yours or mine.

  177. DW says:

    179 – I guess when on site early voting starts, and AAs don’t line up around the city block we will be told that this time, their strategy is to make a big showing on election day instead.

  178. janz says:

    Thanks for that feedback, Marv. There are so many variables to take under consideration in this election, along with so much muddied water from outside sources, that it is difficult to keep an even keel perspective, when going over the daily data.

  179. Polaris says:

    #188 Early (in person) voting in NC starts 18 October. Same with a lot of other states.

    -Polaris

  180. Marv says:

    Am I the only one around here willing to predict a 1 point lead for Romney in Gallup by today or tomorrow? C’mon guys, let’s see some cajones out there.

  181. jason says:

    Kim must be one of 85% of Democrats that supposedly believe the economy is good.

  182. Marv says:

    #184 janz,

    Please ignore #186. ;-)

  183. DW says:

    I posted this above, but putting it here again, 3693 votes received in NC:

    Party Reg
    Dem. 34.6%
    Rep. 46.8%
    None/Oth 18.6%
    Age
    18-29 7.2%
    30-44 12.0%
    45-59 19.2%
    60+ 61.6%
    Race
    White 84.4%
    Black 11.8%
    Other/None 3.8%
    Gender
    Female 54.3%
    Male 45.1%
    Unknown 0.6%

    I know its a relatively small number of votes, but youth % is low and AA % is low.

  184. rdelbov says:

    The NRO article rehashes some of my points.

    Lets just say that MOE means “Margin of Error”.

    When liberal/media pollster finds +8 or +7D or even +11D in poll after poll its because they plan it that way. If you randomly polled for LV you would get a poll like PA 48-47 every once in a while. How often do you hear us say PPP or CNN or Marist or Quinnie comes up with a GOP sample. Never (except PPP senate MO) because they hardcode for a liberal/D heavy sample.

  185. janz says:

    #178 Good article Polaris.

  186. Polaris says:

    #186 Gallup is being sued by the govt. I am not quite sure how they will react to that…it may keep Gallup from showing a Romney lead at least until the LV sample. We already know that Gallup is WAY LATE switching to LVs.

    -Polaris

  187. DW says:

    Marv, I predicted an unchanged Gallup today. Slight chance of movement either way, but its hard to move a seven day tracker.

  188. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “ras has Angle up by 5 on election day and Reid won by 5. He also had Buck up in CO and he lost. he also had Rossi up in WA and he lost.”

    as did PPP (D)

  189. Pitchaboy says:

    This, as I have said before is the geyser election. The oldies are energized, will come out in droves, vote R by 15 percent or more and win it for them. The silent arthritic majority will overwhelm the youth vote.

  190. rdelbov says:

    More polling 101. When pollsters release RV and LV look them over. LV should be around 78 to 85% of RV.

    My general rule is 83%. So 83% of RV will vote. Yet in every poll we see a 3 to 5% bump up for Romney from RV to LV. Lots of polls give results both ways.
    The passion is with the GOP. LV screens help the GOP in 2012.

  191. janz says:

    Ex presidential candidates like Cain are not being helpful to anyone but their own egos, when they make such statements as these.

  192. jason says:

    Ok course there ARE people smarter than Kim…

    “WASHINGTON, D.C. — Americans’ distrust in the media hit a new high this year, with 60% saying they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. Distrust is up from the past few years, when Americans were already more negative about the media than they had been in years prior to 2004.”

    And who trusts the Media more:

    58% of Democrats, but only 31% of Dems and 26% of Republicans.

    Only 20% of Democrats think the media is too conservative, vs. 75% of Republicans think it’s too liberal. 50% of Indies think its too liberal, only 13% too conservative.

    I wonder why?

  193. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    168 IP,

    I was based at LaGuardia for year once, and as far as I was concerned, that was Mars.

    Comment by Marv

    Poor bastrich :twisted:

  194. Pitchaboy says:

    And all the senior patients I have are pissed off about one thing: Medicare cuts and death panels in Obamacare.

  195. Polaris says:

    #196 Agreed and if you look at Gallup’s LV, about it’s about 85% (88% GOP, 85% Dem). Right now (and this is MY measure of enthusiasm) Republican voters are more likely to vote.

    -Polaris

  196. DW says:

    MICHIGAN

    Romney 45
    Obama 50

    500 Certain to Vote

    Paladin/CFP

    9/20/12

    Again, Michigan appears to be in the category of just barely out of reach for Romney.

  197. jason says:

    Republicans paying more attention to the election than Democrats by a 48-39 margin according to Gallup.

  198. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    200.And all the senior patients I have are pissed off about one thing: Medicare cuts and death panels in Obamacare.

    Comment by Pitchaboy —

    Unfortunate that they are only concerned when THEIR ox is being gored, but look the other way when the whole country is being gored. I have no sympathy for them,as they helped elect this fraud.

  199. kim from ohio says:

    Jason- not exactly a troll, but whatever……I posted here a lot in 2004. I remember going around and around with (I think it was )Polaris about WMDs not actually being found in Iraq. I have not had much to say in the years since then, but I have still checked in from time to time. So, if that is your definition of a troll, okay. The “liberals” at fox news are only brought in to make it appear that they are trying to be fair. The basic premises of many of it’s stories are flawed. Here is a made up (by me) example for illustration. FOX NEWS ALERT: “President Obama is really an alien from outer space? We’ll have someone from both sides to debate this developing story.” Fox gives non-issues a life and then purports to be “fair and balanced” because they actually put someone on who says Obama is not in fact an alien. Do you see the inherent problem? Of course they are not this blatant, and it is much more insidious. And by the way, the outnumbered liberals are usually weak, ineffective and completely overrun by the Fox News HOST, not even the opposing conservative. If you don’t see this it is only because you don’t WANT to see it.

    And BTW before you start flaming me and assume that I’m some insane Obama fan, I barely voted for him in 2008, I saw through the “hope and change” garbage that he was trying to sell. I was seriously creeped out by so many people thinking he was such a messiah- a little too Jonestowny for my taste. I have not been thrilled by everything that he has done, and I had a very open mind going into the conventions even after my disappointment with the Ryan pick. But the RNC sealed the deal for me and I will be unhappily voting for Obama again. I don’t really like Obama, but I like the other option even less.

  200. DW says:

    There have been a number of conflicting articles about the money game. If Romney does have a $ advantage for the month of Oct, it would seem he should be able to effectively eat away at the independents in FL OH VA. Also, fundraising continues. Will be interesting to see how much the candidates are raking in these days.

  201. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “I have no sympathy for them,as they helped elect this fraud.”

    McCain won the senior vote in 2008

  202. barrie o. says:

    ” death panels in Obamacare.”

    Please don’t call it that.

    We prefer “Sunset Panels”.

    Thanks.

  203. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “There have been a number of conflicting articles about the money game. If Romney does have a $ advantage for the month of Oct, it would seem he should be able to effectively eat away at the independents in FL OH VA. Also, fundraising continues. Will be interesting to see how much the candidates are raking in these days.”

    RNC has more COH then DNC. Lats report was RNC had 70 million+ COH, DNC just 7 million+

  204. DW says:

    205 – so you like 16 trillion of debt, and you like that Obama is going to make that much worse, and you like higher taxes, and you like a foreign policy that makes us less safe and puts terrorists into power. You also like the erosion of our freedoms, and you like that the US dollar is about to become monopoly money. There is a way to begin to turn this around, and its to vote for Romney. But apparently you would rather that we crash at the bottom of the cliff.

  205. jason says:

    Kim, you ARE a troll. The Ryan comment is a clue.

    Deal with it.

    Foxnews is a red herring.

    The MSM is completely in the tank for Obama.

    Only a moron would deny it.

  206. steve craft says:

    OK, *now* is the time to buy Romney on Intrade. No way he goes lower than 28. Mark my word.

  207. kim from ohio says:

    @ 198 jason- yes, that story was what my original post was responding to. And I explained why I think more conservatives feel “victimized” by the MSM.

  208. Polaris says:

    #205 Please. You were always going to vote for Obama. Otherwise you wouldn’t have posted to tell us about now the evil RNC convinced you to do so. You are an Obama partisan. That was clear from your first post.

    -Polaris

  209. dblaikie says:

    Well we now have 17 dead with riots in Pakistan. I guess those ads Obama bought really worked.

  210. jason says:

    ” He also had Buck up in CO and he lost.”

    Hey fact checker, what did RAS have him up by?

    Buck lost by 1%.

  211. Polaris says:

    #212 Romney may get lower on In-trade if you want to make money, but honestly all those that think this is 2008 again are suckers and are making a sucker’s bet.

    -Polaris

  212. DW says:

    The RNC was great! Even Rush Limbaugh was jazzed by the Romney speech. Paul Ryan was great too!

  213. jason says:

    Maybe the fact checker never heard of an MOE…. 8)

  214. Polaris says:

    Frankly almost all ‘Fact checkers’ write political editorials and spout opinions and pretend they are facts. Not suprisingly most of them lean Dem some pretty blatently so.

    -Polaris

  215. Songandaprayer says:

    I guarantee Santorum or Paul would have NEVER done this.

  216. DW says:

    So if the RNC has 70 million+ COH, and the DNC just 7 million+, how is it that the dem candidates are going to be able to go head to head in ads come October?

  217. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    I barely voted for him in 2008

    KIm

    That’s like being barely pregnant.

  218. Polaris says:

    #220 You do realize that under studio lights you have to put on what otherwise would seem to be pretty garish makeup if you are pale caucasian or else you will look Pallid-Dead on camera? You do know that right?

    -Polaris

  219. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “Hey fact checker, what did RAS have him up by?

    Buck lost by 1%.”

    Last Rasmussen Poll From CO Senate Race In 2010 – R+4

    Last PPP (D) Poll From CO Senate Race In 2010 – R+1

  220. Ray says:

    Marv: There’s a shot at R+1 in Gallup either today or tomorrow based on what I have rolling off. Job approval may tick back up depending on what comes on, we’ll see.

  221. Phil says:

    “barely voted for him”

    Hillarious

  222. DW says:

    225 – that’s right…all candidates, and news anchors for that matter do that…Hannity has spoken about it on his radio show how he HATES having to put on the makeup before the show. They all do it.

  223. jason says:

    ” And I explained why I think more conservatives feel “victimized” by the MSM.”

    Victimized? BS

    The MSM is liberal and in the tank for Obama.

    That is a fact, just turn on the news or read the newspapers.

  224. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “Maybe the fact checker never heard of an MOE….”

    You Never Heard Of Reading? I Was Making A Point That PPP (D) Got Those Races Wrong Too. Your Beef With The Ras Comment Is With The Person I Was Replying To.

  225. DW says:

    229 – Booth barely shot Lincoln. Oswald barely shot JFK. Armstrong barely stepped onto the moon.

  226. michael corleone says:

    #227

    This is the point. Even in 2010, a phenomenal GOP year, the Dems were able to OUTperform their poll numbers in 3 states and managed to make California a wipe out to the D side. Not one Republican was elected Statewide.

  227. MD says:

    I remember Kim!!!!!

    Kim, go back to the kitchen and make me a sandwich. Do something worthwhile. Your posts are interesting but a good sandwich would be more valuable.

  228. Polaris says:

    Look, the Dem/DNC/MSM strategy should be clear. They are going for a September TKO of Romnney. The are trying desperately to convince enough GOP or lean-GOP Indies (or more importantly Anti-Obama voters) that the election is hopeless to drive down the Romnney turnout before the debates.

    This is why the DNC and Dems are spending money like water in September (which otherwise would make no sense). This is why we are getting the slew of polling with ri’donky’lus internals, this is why Romney is being outspend in September. It’s all about knocking Romney out of the race before the sub-terranian electoral anger against Obama can coalesc against him in October and November.

    Don’t fall for it.

    -Polaris

  229. kim from ohio says:

    Jason- How in the heck does not liking Ryan equate to being a troll? On the political scale I fall just a hair right of dead center. (Read that as just a hair left if it helps you sleep better.) So of course I was unhappy with a FAR RIGHT VP pick.

    But I have noticed that you all love to scream “TROLL” at anyone who has a differing viewpoint.

  230. Phil says:

    Hiroshima was barely nuked

  231. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “barely voted for him”

    There Is No Such Thing.

  232. michael corleone says:

    This is why I am not ready to chuck these turnout models.

    One the other side, this entire year, through the primaries and Wisconsin recalls, the conservative support was often under-represented in EXit polls.

  233. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    ” On the political scale I fall just a hair right of dead center.”

    Based On Your Comments, That Is False

  234. DW says:

    I made the point yesterday that in VA from 2009-2011, the polls underestimated the GOP by 4 to 10 points in races for governor and for US house, and the GOP ‘unexpectedly’ took back the state senate even though the Drats drew the district lines.

  235. Phil says:

    …and Anrea Mitchell is a centrist

  236. nOpe says:

    Kim

    Some of the concern trolls in the Nevada branch had their checks bounce. May want to give your boss a call.

    Just sayin.

  237. kim from ohio says:

    And I explained why I think more conservatives feel “victimized” by the MSM.”

    Victimized? BS

    The MSM is liberal and in the tank for Obama.

    That is a fact, just turn on the news or read the newspapers.

    Comment by jason — September 21, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

    See, you are proving my point. You assume that what Fox is reporting is accurate, so what is being reported everywhere else MUST be inaccurate. A flaw in your premise.

  238. Polaris says:

    I can believe that Kim thinks she is slightly right of center…if her definition of a moderate leftist is Lenin. Otherwise, no.

    -Polaris

  239. MD says:

    Polaris – that is true.

    Kim – nice story babe. Now go fix me a sandwich.

  240. jason says:

    Just got a call from the RNC. I gave them $105 to keep their morale up.

  241. Polaris says:

    #245 Kim, educate yourself. Look up a series of papers by Dr. Groseclose of UCLA who examines this issue with stasticial and mathematic rigor.

    Media bias is quite real and overwhelmingly liberal.

    -Polaris

  242. MD says:

    Kim,

    Don’t forget to freshen your make up for when the man comes home. Wear something pretty and make certain you have a bow in your hair.

    The bow is key.

  243. jason says:

    Hey Kim, I don’t watch Foxnews.

    But good try.

    Any moron understands the MSM is liberal.

    Even liberals admit.

    But Gallup says 3% of conservatives think the MSM is conservative.

    You must be one of those, rarer than rocking horse turds.

  244. jason says:

    ” You assume that what Fox is reporting is accurate, so what is being reported everywhere else MUST be inaccurate.”

    And we could lose to people with minds like this?

    Shocking.

  245. GeorgeIllinois says:

    Caught a brief statement on C-SPAN last night–some lefty program on voter turnout–and heard a Democratic congresswoman from Ohio–an AA–say they needed longer voting hours in AA areas.

    Now, just why do AAs need longer voting hours than anyone else? Hummm?

  246. Phil says:

    FOX is biased

    Hmmm Fox vs

    ABC
    NBC
    CBS
    CNN
    PBS
    MSNBC
    AP
    Reuters
    NYT
    Washington Post

    Yeah, Kimmy

    Pretty balanced.

  247. Polaris says:

    #251 You must be one of those, rarer than rocking horse turds. … or African Americans that vote against Obama….

    -Polaris

  248. SusyQue says:

    #218…DW…Is there a link to the speech you are talking about?
    Was it on TV today or yesterday?

  249. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “But Gallup says 3% of conservatives think the MSM is conservative.

    You must be one of those”

    Kim Is Not Conservative Or Center Anything, She Is A Leftists Based On Her Comments And Votes. This Is The Fact Whether She Wants To Admit It Or Not.

  250. Ben Romney says:

    what Party ID is Rasmussen using???
    D+2 ?D/?R

  251. ho-dogg says:

    I never had eaten Chik fil A until all the recent upoar. Now i go and get it once a week or so for my co-workers. Man they have some good sandwiches!!!!!

  252. Phil says:

    I’m a slightly to the left centrist who barely voted for McCain in 2008.

  253. Polaris says:

    I *think* Ras is using D38/R36

    Marv, Frank, Scott? Do any of you know for certain?

    -Polaris

  254. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “what Party ID is Rasmussen using???
    D+2 ?D/?R”

    Rasmussen Is Polling A D+2 Electorate As Of Last Notice

  255. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Kimmy baby, define “far right” for us.

  256. Brandon says:

    Rasmussen PA poll has Obama 51%- Romney 39%. Ouch.

  257. Polaris says:

    #264 That’s not a total suprise though (Ras’ PA Poll). I never expected Romney to win PA anyway. I would be interested in the internals though. It might give some insight (esp W. PA) into Ohio.

    -Polaris

  258. jason says:

    Kim, read Bernie Goldberg’s book Bias.

    If you really have an open mind which of course you don’t.

    Jan Morgan hits on the head:

    “The mainstream media has a documented history of liberal slant which is understandable since a majority of their correspondents are liberals and vote democratic. In one poll, Washington correspondents declared that they voted Democratic 93 percent to 7 percent, while the nation is split about 50-50.

    This statistic, in addition to the obvious bias in their coverage convinced me that many reporters for CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC, and CNN write with a liberal filter. Tim Groseclose writes in his book, “Left Turn”, that this liberal slant is also have an impact on voting habits of Americans who listen depend on these media outlets for their news. Groseclose says, “Using objective, social-scientific methods, the filtering prevents us from seeing the world as it actually is. Instead, we see only a distorted version of it. It is as if we see the world through a glass—a glass that magnifies the facts that liberals want us to see and shrinks the facts that conservatives want us to see.” He adds: “That bias makes us more liberal, which makes us less able to detect the bias, which allows the media to get away with more bias, which makes us even more liberal.”

  259. MD says:

    That Ras poll is downright ugly. No way around it .

  260. Phil says:

    That’s really bad.

    Worse than McCain got beat and if that were correct, you’re seeing a replay of 2008.

    In this economic climate. Country would really have to be finished for that number to happen.

  261. MD says:

    Anyone want to make the case that PA is in okay anymore? Or that Tom Smith isn’t hurting Romney?

  262. Phil says:

    We’d have to be down nationally slightly worse than even 2008 for that number to be correct.

  263. Brandon says:

    Romney at 76% of R’s so he has a few points to grow with the 9% undecided. Obama at 83% of D’s. Down 57-26 among Indies.

  264. Polaris says:

    #267 I don’t disagree MD, but I want to see the internals. Even good pollsters will get bad samples now and again. That’s what random sampling means. In addition I simply would like the extra info.

    -Polaris

  265. Phil says:

    MD, I love ya, buddy, but you live in a phucked up state.

  266. OHIO JOE says:

    “Or that Tom Smith isn’t hurting Romney?” You can always bring Mr. Spector back to life.

  267. Marv says:

    Romney—-47
    Obama—–47

    JA—47/48

  268. RB says:

    With no campaigning in PA Obama probably gets 54% in PA. PA and NJ will probably be close to one another.

  269. Phil says:

    Well, I guess we know where the 15% Republicans voting for Obama in this morning’s RAS polling came from.

  270. Polaris says:

    Hmm, those Indy numbers look ugly and out of character with other polls. I notice that neither candidate is doing well with their own party which is suprising to me.

    What is the DRI?

    Also 51-36 That adds to what? 87?

    LOT of ‘undecideds’. Once gain, Ras is picking up a LOT of undecided republicans in his polling.

    Troubling poll.

    -Polaris

  271. rdelbov says:

    Tom Smith is barely hurting Romney in PA.

  272. jason says:

    I wonder if anyone can think of an anchor on CBS, NBC, ABC or CNN in the last 30 years that was not a flaming liberal.

    I wonder if anyone can think of a WH correspondent for any these organizations that was not a flaming liberal?

    I wonder if anyone can think of a host on any morning show like GMA or Today for these organizations that was not a flaming liberal?

  273. Polaris says:

    #275 More or less what I expected. No movement on Gallup it seems.

    -Polaris

  274. Phil says:

    aren’t any

  275. Brandon says:

    44D/39R/16I

  276. Polaris says:

    #280 Indeed Jason. IIRC Dr Groseclose once commented that the average US voter voted like Missouri, but without the influence of the media they would vote like it were TEXAS!

    -Polaris

  277. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    275.Romney—-47
    Obama—–47

    JA—47/48

    Comment by Marv

    How can one have a job approval rating when one has no job?

  278. Polaris says:

    #283 Thanks. D+5 with a low Indie sample. This looks to be a fair DRI for PA.

    -Polaris

  279. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    LOS OJOS DE TEXAS SON SOBRE TI MO FOS

  280. Marv says:

    #281 Polaris,

    Perhaps Romney’s 47.4 is about to become Romney’s 47.6 in Gallup tomorrow…..no change in Obama’s 47, course. ;-)

  281. Polaris says:

    #288 Maybe, but I think Gallup is gunshy of showing a Romney lead. I really do.

    -Polaris

  282. Marv says:

    IP,

    Obama is probably going to get JA or JA+1 on election day. Either way, Romney still wins. (If that happens, I might consider buying a round for the crew after the flight.)

  283. jason says:

    I certainly don’t agree Tom Smith is hurting Romney.

    Tom Smith is running an aggressive campaign. A lot of lawn signs, bumper stickers, TV ads, phone calls. Much stronger than Romney actually.

    That You-GOv poll yesterday had it Casey 45-37. Do I believe it? No.

    But Smith might get more votes than MD thinks.

  284. Eric Dondero says:

    GALLUP DAILY JUST CAME IN!!

    We’re tied. 47/47

  285. SusyQue says:

    Why Romney Is Going to Romp over Obama in November
    The Drive-By Pundit

    Ignore the polls. Romney’s going to win big, and you know why? Because blacks have lost their enthusiasm for Obama.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/printpage/?url=http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/../2012/09/why_romney_is_going_to_romp_over_obama_in_november.html

  286. BayernFan says:

    DW How do they know how old the early voters in NC are? Party registration yes I can see that.

  287. RB says:

    I think Gallup may be stabilizing out and we may be playing in the Romney +2 – Obama +2 margin. For now, the Romney tape, does not seem to be having a big im

  288. RB says:

    I think Gallup may be stabilizing out and we may be playing in the Romney +2 – Obama +2 margin. For now, the Romney tape, does not seem to be having a big impact on the electorate -I hope

  289. jason says:

    I get a ton of calls for Tom Smith. I won’t contribute to him because there are so many worthier Senate candidates with a actual chance of winning.

    But I give the guy credit for being aggressive. Too bad he Akined himself right off the bat.

  290. Polaris says:

    #294 Because NC is a “Voting Rights Act” state, the SOS is required to keep complete registration information including race of those that register to vote.

    When a mail-in/early vote comes in, that name is checked off as having ‘voted’ (to avoid double voting) and you can get the demographic information of those registrations that have voted including age.

    This isn’t an exit poll. It’s the raw count of registrations that have voted.

    -Polaris

  291. Marv says:

    #295 BayernFan,

    They match the name of the returned ballot with the name on the voter registration list. The voter registration list has personal data available for each registered voter.

  292. Pitchaboy says:

    Usually it is JA minus 1 or 2 for dems because their JA is overestimated on polling. Opposite forRepublicans.

  293. Phil says:

    Man, we haven;t seen any red state polling yet, but Romney must really be rocking in those red states to be tied overall in Gallup considering that Pa poll.

  294. kim from ohio says:

    First, let me say that Groseclose’s study is old old old and flawed.

    Second, to judge media bias based on voting patterns of the media is silly when we all know that MANY of the ones who vote democrat do so ONLY because they live in D.C. and would not have a say otherwise Novak comes to mind. And that “democrat” Krauthammer, too.

    Third, with that being said, please tell me where I said that there is no liberal media bias. I actually said I DO believe there is a liberal media bias:

    “While I’m not suggesting that the MSM is completely unbiased, Rush, Fox Hannity et al make it seem MUCH worse than it really is. Rs begin to feel victimized and since they WANT to believe everything that Fox, Rush etc have to say, they then assume that since sources from the MSM are not reporting it, they are in the tank for Obama.”

    But, see there you go, taking what I’ve said and twisting it around to suit your own needs. Make me look completely off the wall biased to undercut my argument. You’ve learned well, Rush would be proud.

  295. Pitchaboy says:

    The number of absentee requests down big in NC. Enthusiasm down both ways.

  296. Polaris says:

    If the Romney tape were going to have a big impact we would have seen it by now. Notice that the MSM is barely mentioning it now. It’s been digested and it’s impact…nothing much. It was a MOE race before…it’s a MOE race now.

    This is bad for the Dems because I am virtually certain this was their ‘October suprise’. They tried to use it to knock Romney out of the race early. They failed.

    -Polaris

  297. Marv says:

    Pitchaboy,

    What rolled off/on Gallup last night in the JA and the tracker?

  298. Polaris says:

    #302 Which one? He’s done several since, and he at least studies the issue. Sure the media says it’s flawed, but there is plenty of other evidence that backs his studies PLURAL (including his recent ones).

    -Polaris

  299. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Because blacks have lost their enthusiasm for Obama.
    sq

    Poor deluded child. There is no way any significant number will stay home or vote for Romney.

  300. Phil says:

    Yeah, we are all Rushbots, Kimmy. At least that’s what they say on MSNBC. Oh, I forgot. You’re a centrist.

  301. BayernFan says:

    Thanks Polaris and DW on the NC explanation. I didn’t know that age and race info is kept on voters. That seems wrong but not surprising.

  302. Hunter says:

    Kim…

    The link below will take you to a site which addressed the very real question of how the media has voted since 1960′s…

    If you do NOT think there is a built-in bias against R’s from the media, you truly have no grasp of reality…

    http://archive.mrc.org/biasbasics/biasbasics3.asp

    I would imagine these people voted for Obama in larger %s than in previous years…

  303. rdelbov says:

    SQ

    I have posted three or four articles on the AA vote in 2012. Our trolls (concern or otherwise) never comment on them. They love to push negative Romney/republican articles but ignore AA woes.

    1. In 2008 I wary, scared might be too strong of a word, about saying anything anti Obama around AA people. I do not feel that way now. I never hear AA’s tout Obama or sing his praises in public or wore obama clothes. The AA stores around town do not have any Obama stuff that is visible.

    2. Yes I noticed the three hour lines to early vote in 2008. What BayernFan noted was here in Memphis times two!!! Those likely voter polls in 2012. Numerous ones show AA turnout dropping back to 10% from 13% in 2012.

    3. I believe 2008 was either 95-4 or 96-3 among AA voters. Other then PPP I rarely see obama hitting 95%. Even in some PPP polls, like his national one, it was only 83%. I can’t be a number on it but we could see 91-8 or 90-9 which would be 2004 like AA votes. It will not match 2008.

  304. June says:

    NC AA vote will be about 23%, but there are also more Hispanics now than in 2008, actually about 175,000 more voters, so like we here in NC have been telling you, Obama will win.

  305. FL Dimpled Chads says:

    We know many people who “barely voted” for Gore or Bush in 2000.

  306. Polaris says:

    #302 If you were to view the journalist, reporters, and other members of the MSM as a demographic group, you would find that they lean at least thirty points more Dem than the national average. It’s to the point where if you are in an MSM studio you can’t admit to voting for or saying anything good about the GOP.

    MSM members have been caught RED HANDED slanting their news in favor of Obama.

    -Polaris

  307. Pitchaboy says:

    My track roll says a tied day rolled off last night and a tied one rolled on. Today a O plus 1 day rolls off. So if they tie tonight, it is R plus 1 tomorrow. However I would bet on RAS showing R up tomorrow tha Gallup. I think they have been intimidated.

  308. Marv says:

    #307 IP,

    If their is any black voter drop off at all in FL, VA, and OH, then Romney will win by about 3 points on average in each state.

  309. Hunter says:

    I wonder if anyone from Kim’s Fantasy Land of Unbiased Media will now report that the White House either lied or flat out shot first and aimed later on the riots before the Ambassador was killed?…

    Hmmmm…

    What say you Kim?…

    Will they report this now as a terrorist attack as we’ve known for over a week and that this Admin screwed up their response and protection of the consulate?…

  310. Pitchaboy says:

    The AA vote will go over 90 percent to O. However, the total number will be down by 1.5 to 2 percent

  311. GF (El Jefe) says:

    Good morning, HHR.

    I don’t really recall Kim from back in the day, but to be fair, my memory is chock full of much more important data. Is she our new Scissors? Given that she is actively supporting the infanticide candidate when she could easily leave her ballot blank at the top undermines her whole argument that she is a centrist who doesn’t really like either side. Hah! My wife is a big liberal and she is now probably not going to vote b/c while she cannot yet bring herself to vote for Mitt (I’m working on it), she absolutely will not reward Zero for his incompetence.

    And she really likes Paul Ryan, too; says he is refreshingly honest even if he is on the Right. Her problem is with Mitt himself.

  312. jason says:

    ” Because blacks have lost their enthusiasm for Obama.”

    Yeah, right.

    Not going to happen. AA turnout will be slightly lower than 2008, I can believe that.

    Romney will get the same 4% of the black vote McCain got.

    However, Obama won 43% of the white vote. He won’t get that this time.

    Obama got 46% of white women. Won’t get that this time.

    White college grads went for McCain 51-47. Obama will do worse this time.

    McCain only won married voters by 6. Romney will win them by at least 10.

    Obama won the Hispanic vote 67-31. I doubt he does worse than that, might do better.

  313. SpanishParakeetsForRomney says:

    302

    You’re making a complete fool of yourself

    The media in this country today is equivalent to Pravda or Izvestia in the Soviet Union

    Try new lies…

  314. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    If their is any black voter drop off at all in FL, VA, and OH, then Romney will win by about 3 points on average in each state.

    Comment by Marv

    ~~And IF a frog had wings etc etc

    Wishful thinking. Wish in one hand, crap in the other,see which one you like the best.

  315. June says:

    *** One stop early voting begins here in NC on October 18th, the AA vote and youth vote will swell then ***

  316. Phil says:

    More Hispanics in Texas too, June.

    How will you explain away that Texas will be 2.5 pts more Romney than it was for McCain?

  317. Polaris says:

    #312 Not in this universe June. NC goes Romney and it goes Romney easily. Anyone that can count on fingers and toes can see that.

    -Polaris

  318. Polaris says:

    #325 It will be even more than that Phil. Texas will be called for Romney almost immediately.

    -Polaris

  319. SusyQue says:

    Drive by Pundit (Perry Drake)

    Blacks have lost their passion for ooo. In 2008, obama was “The One”and the savior. Now they think obama is the newest in a long line of would-be-messiahs/hucksters.

  320. Ray says:

    Gallup: I have the last 3 nights effectively tied (+/- 2). Last night looks like a tie to slight O lead as a good O day rolled off. For JA, I have a +1 coming on with a net 0 falling off. Gallup’s numbers are looking a lot like early August.

    Maybe I’m naive but I don’t think Gallup will game their #s over Axelrod’s intimidation. This company has existed long before Obama and will long after.

  321. Brandon says:

    I have a really hard time believing blacks will only be 10% of the electorate.

  322. Polaris says:

    #324 Not buying it June. Obama at the height of his popularity and the depth of GOP enthusiasm only BARELY carried NC. NC is off the map. Deal.

    -Polaris

  323. Walt says:

    Today’s bad polls go out in the trash today,

    The Obammer administration goes in the trash on Nov. 6.

  324. Polaris says:

    #329 I don’t think Gallup will game their numbers either from intimidation, but what I am suggesting is a bit more subtle. If they were going to be intimidated, they wouldn’t be showing a tied/MOE race along with Ras. This is WHY (the real reason) they are getting sued.

    However, I do think it may make Gallup more reluctant to round in Romney’s favor or use a Romney favorable LV until they have to. Honestly they should have been using an LV model all this month.

    -Polaris

  325. GF (El Jefe) says:

    If blacks are about 13% of the population, there is no reason to expect them to be well above 15% of the total electorate. 14%, perhaps, if they are enthusiastic, but anything above that makes me suspicious.

  326. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    How will you explain away that Texas will be 2.5 pts more Romney than it was for McCain?

    Comment by Phil

    More honkys moving in to offset the illegals.Upper income hispanics don’t care for the illegals either,plus cruz on the ticket helps.

  327. MD says:

    274 – Hi, dead ender

    I didn’t mention Specter. I have always detested him dead ender. You can go back all the way to 04 for those posts.

  328. GF (El Jefe) says:

    OK, back to work…

  329. bio mom says:

    248 Don’t give to the RNC, give directly to the Romney campaign. MittRomney.com.

  330. Pitchaboy says:

    #329: Romney was up 5 in Gallup when DOJ served notice to them. In a week, the race was tied. Coincidence?

  331. sickofdems says:

    C’MON MD!!

    How about a frickin update??!!?

    Did she ever bring you the sandwich or not??

  332. GeorgeIllinois says:

    Crain’s Chicago Business notes in a report that We Ask America is”closely affiliated” with the Illinois Manufacturers Association.

  333. MD says:

    I am thinking 14 is the right number the AA pop.

  334. Polaris says:

    #334 If GA and the rest of the Deep South are any indication, in2008 virtually every RV AA that could vote did vote. Even then the AA vote was 13% of the national population and they went to Obama 95-5 (apprx). This was enough to add about 1% to Obama’s national number and enough to raise the D percentage by about 1%

    A more typical AA percentage is 11% and so 10 to 11% seems reasonable to me for an AA vote. In short, I think that 13%/2008 is pretty much the absolute high water mark for AA vote in this country.

    -Polaris

  335. MD says:

    340

    Bytch didn’t make the sandwich and HAD NO BOW IN HER HAIR!!!!!

    She has been told again and again – the bow is key.

  336. janz says:

    #322 MFG

    Your comment —> The media in this country today is equivalent to Pravda or Izvestia in the Soviet Union is the same thing I was discussing with my husband this morning.

    Even democratic journalist Kristen Powers seems absolutely baffled by how the media is incurious about asking this media tough, pertinent questions, as well as simply accepting lies and distortions and running with them as if they were truth.

    This election is being colored more by the press than anything else.

  337. kim from ohio says:

    @ 313 seriously LOL good one, but I stand by my previous statement. I barely voted for him. I did not buy into the Obama hype in 08. I was still undecided as of the day of the election. Do you want to know what the deciding factor was? On election day I had some people come into the coffee shop that I owned and they were all from a nearby church. They were talking, convinced that God was on McCain’s side and therefore He would surely deliver the country from an Obama presidency. Seeing the smug religious insanity from (a small) part of the R base is what pushed me.

  338. Pitchaboy says:

    AA 13.1 percent of population in 2011. Turnout historically 11. 2008 was close to 14. Likely 12 this time

  339. Yolanda says:

    I’m not sure we should have the confidence to say that Romney will win NC “easily.” If the election were held today, he would win it (and lose most of the other close states), but a bad debate performance could easily make it fall away. Let’s not pretend we’re talking about SC here.

    I also came into this race thinking NC would be an easy pickup, given how narrowly Obama won it in 2008. But demographics change differently from state to state, as do local conditions. Bush won NC more easily than he won MO, but McCain carried MO and lost NC.

  340. Uncle Salty says:

    GALLUP =

    EVEN.

  341. Saul Alinsky says:

    Seeing the smug religious insanity from (a small) part of the R base is what pushed me.

    Comment by kim from ohio — September 21, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

    Welcome home, fellow traveller! Show the world what contempt we have for those types and their ridiculous “faith.”

  342. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Blacks have lost their passion for ooo. In 2008, obama was “The One”and the savior. Now they think obama is the newest in a long line of would-be-messiahs/hucksters.

    Comment by SusyQue

    That doesn’t mean they will stay home. Blood is thicker than water.

  343. Polaris says:

    #349 I am completely confident about NC. In fact I have and will continue to call it a Romney lock. How often have you seen Obama there since the convention? Zero. That says it all.

    If you accept that this is a MOE race then NC is simply not in play. The state is still way to conservative for that.

    -Polaris

  344. janz says:

    Here it comes…..

    GOP retreat on taxes likely if Obama wins.

    “This is a referendum on taxes,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior member of the House Budget Committee. “If the president wins reelection, taxes are going up” for the nation’s wealthiest households, and “there’s not a lot we can do about that.”

  345. Ray says:

    Fair enough (on Gallup).. I am interested to see what partisan ID they go with on LV. Suspect they will hedge again with 2 turnout models, which is weak sauce.

    Just got an invite to GOTV in Ohio.. all expenses paid (from NJ). Perhaps that’s where team Romney is spending their $$ (vs shock & awe on air).

  346. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    religious insanity from (a small) part of the R base is what pushed me.

    Comment by kim from ohio

    As opposed to atheist psychosis.

  347. Yolanda says:

    Romney needs to be *leading* going into the debates. The debates give the msm yet another chance to orgasm over Obama’s brilliance, and ever “um” on Romney’s part will be blown up into the Worst Gaffe In History!

    Every network will follow the debate with a group of “undecided” voters who all talk about how Obama has convinced them he needs more time and is trying hard, and how Romney just doesn’t seem to “connect.”

  348. June says:

    NC is not conservative LOL , we are a centrist state man. Do you live here ?? Don’t you realize how liberal the urban areas are ??

  349. Polaris says:

    #355 Gallup doesn’t weight by partisan ID period. Never have. What they do is ask some turnout question to try to determine who “will definately vote”. THAT is Gallup’s LV screen.

    -Polaris

  350. Polaris says:

    #358 You need to get out of the triangle June. My Great Aunt was a proud North Carolinian (Asheville) and I can ASSURE you that North Carolina IS a conservative state. Maybe less so in the past, but you are living in Obama-fantasyland.

    -Polaris

  351. Polaris says:

    Urban areas are almost always Liberal…even in Texas.

    -Polaris

  352. Walt says:

    From a practical standpoint:

    –and please do not accuse me of being racists–

    ***Isn’t there a larger % of AA who are under 18 as compared to Caucasian under 18 (Hispanics are another story)?

    ***And, if AA population is 13.1% of U.S. total, how many of those are currently incarcerated and therefore cannot vote (except in places like VT),

    ***or WERE in prison and now released but live in states where those with felony convictions do not regain their right to vote?

    Seems to me the AA % of total vote should be LESS than their % of total U.S. population.

    Maybe 10%????

  353. Phil says:

    Ask Al Gore and John Kerry how liberal NC is.

    Guess that’s also why John Edwards decided to run for reelection to the senate.

    What’s your congressional delegation look like, BTW?

  354. GA Voter says:

    #347 Sad comment. You let EMOTIONS vote for you. Wow! Not a logical thinker here are you? Yep. You ARE a DEM with your emotional I need help as I am a woman thought. Congrats! You are on the Obama gravy train. Let Starbucks eat you alive, baby!

  355. Polaris says:

    #347 I did not buy into the Obama hype in 08.

    Yes you did and you still have. Otherwise you wouldn’t be here trying to convince us that you didn’t.

    -Polaris

  356. janz says:

    More Americans signing up for food stamps, disability than are finding work

    Normally this sad statistic would be working for the government decentralization/ individual work ethic themes of the republicans. But, is it actually dovetailing more into the dems social progressive policies this election?

  357. Annie says:

    354 – Taxes will be going up for everyone, not just the wealthiest Americans.

  358. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    “This is a referendum on taxes,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), a senior member of the House Budget Committee. “If the president wins reelection, taxes are going up” for the nation’s wealthiest households, and “there’s not a lot we can do about that.”

    You can vote against it numbnuts, as the GOP will still hold the house.

  359. Pitchaboy says:

    Walt, optimistically turnout will be 13, pessimistic ally 11, likely 12. No chance of 14 percent like 2008 Enthusiasm drives turnout. Therefore, IP, while blood runs thicker than water, this time around there is a touch of anemia, to take a page out of your book.

  360. kim from ohio says:

    @351

    Seeing the smug religious insanity from (a small) part of the R base is what pushed me.

    Comment by kim from ohio — September 21, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

    Welcome home, fellow traveller! Show the world what contempt we have for those types and their ridiculous “faith.”

    Comment by Saul Alinsky — September 21, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

    I don’t have contempt for those with faith. I actually admire them to some extent in their ability to keep on believing in the face of all scientific and logical evidence to the contrary. But hey, that’s why it is called faith. What I don’t like is conservatives and their absolute belief that God is on their side, so anyone who does not agree with them is anti-God, and the enemy. See anything wrong with that? **See middle east for further clarification of my point**

  361. rdelbov says:

    Gallup is tied–that’s good.

    I might add the economy is stinking more by the day. The pace of job cuts and layoffs are quickening.

  362. Polaris says:

    Kim,

    I’m a conservative (albeit a Libertarian one). I am also an atheist.

    Be careful with that broad brush.

    -Polaris

  363. SpanishParakeetsForRomney says:

    ZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  364. Walt says:

    Obammer is (and his MSM, polster minions) desperately trying to create a Potempkin Village effect on his 2012 18 wheeler campaign truck.

    –Foreign policy wheels falling off

    –economic wheels all flat

    About a month from now from the middle of October watch the polls gradually begin to acurately reflect what the real mood of the voters is out there and Romney go up a percent or so every couple of days until by election eve it is showing pretty much:

    National:
    Romney 49-50%
    Obammer 48%

    Swing states (when you throw out the one state MOST favorable to Obammer)
    Romney 51%
    Obammer 47%

    BOOK IT, DANNO!!! :)

  365. rdelbov says:

    kim you dearly do not understand conservative Christians like myself. I was a dues paying member of the “Moral Majority” in 1979 & 1980 so I have been at it for awhile.

    This is not the proper site for an in depth discussion of religion and poltics. You can’t discuss it in 100 words of us. Let me just say that you misrepresent the viewpoint of 99% of conservative Christians.

  366. bio mom says:

    Here is an idea. Ras or gallup should poll this question. Do you trust the polls or not?? It would be an interesting answer.

  367. jason says:

    Jobless rate rises in 5 of 10 campaign swing states.

    Factory employment fell by the most in two years, temporary-help companies cut positions for the first time in five months and the share of the working-age population in the labor force slumped to the lowest since 1981.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-21/unemployment-rate-rises-in-five-of-10-u-s-campaign-swing-states.html

  368. Hunter says:

    Yes Kim…

    Because there is no smugness from the Left…

    You know…

    On such minor issues like what to do with my money, profit, wealth re-distribution and success by business…

    Hence the wonderful economy we have and unbridled confidence our fellow citizens have…

    Because, you know, there is no smugness from Obama, Pelosi or Reed…

  369. kim from ohio says:

    #347 Sad comment. You let EMOTIONS vote for you. Wow! Not a logical thinker here are you? Yep. You ARE a DEM with your emotional I need help as I am a woman thought. Congrats! You are on the Obama gravy train. Let Starbucks eat you alive, baby!

    Comment by GA Voter — September 21, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

    Wow, you read all of that into my comment? Did you miss the part about me owning a small business? I thought we were all die-hard capitalists? I didn’t ask for any help, nor expect any help from EITHER of the candidates. I probably did make my decision a little emotionally because that comment ticked me off, but seriously, can you say that most people don’t factor in emotion?

    Anyway, I have to go get that bow in my hair so I can get a sandwich ready for my husband. He works hard and keeps us out of the 47% (that even a lot of Rs fall into) so he deserves it. Sorry MD, no sandwich for you.

    Don’t worry, I’ll be back for more abuse later.

  370. jason says:

    ” What I don’t like is conservatives..”

    You could have stopped there and not bored everyone with the rest.

    I am a secular conservative, there are many of us here.

    If you are willing to sacrifice the economic future of the country because you don’t like the views of a what you call a minority you are still a moron.

  371. Polaris says:

    Kim,

    I would still like to know how you reconcile the fact that I am an atheist but conservative with the notion that all conservatives have this absolute radical belief in god? That was a bit narrow minded of you, no?

    -Polaris

  372. jason says:

    ” Don’t worry, I’ll be back for more abuse later.”

    Don’t bother.

    Send a smarter troll next time.

  373. Polaris says:

    I’ll admit that being an atheist conservative is a bit usual, but as Jason above mentioned being a secular conservative most certainly isn’t.

    -Polaris

  374. Walt says:

    The other day I heard on radio that Bank of America will lay off 16,000 more workers before the end of the year.

    Part of their previously annouced cutback of 30,000 or so jobs announced by BOA earlier this year.

    These are REAL current jobs, Not fake unicorn “saved or created…”

    “FORWARD”

  375. Polaris says:

    Too bad. I think we broke our latest troll.

    -Polaris

  376. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    AA pastors are telling their congregations to stay home. AA turnout will be 10 percent.

    Tee hee

  377. GA Voter says:

    #381 Yes, I read your comment since most small eating establishments fail within 5 years of start up, I would like to know how long your business has been around. See, if it were more than 5 years with positive cash flow you might place a higher thought process on stats and not emotions. You let Christians get under your skin when you voted for Obama. Sheeple, yes, sheeple that is what you are in voting terms. You are using the excuse of Christians walking through your business door and deciding your vote for you. Not a smart business practice.

    Best leave this web site and start looking at ones that can assist your thinking. Clearly, emotionally you are not prepared for this one.

    Good day.

  378. Walt says:

    Regarding earlier conversation about the Bible:

    From the book of
    Daniel: 1: 2,3,4 Hut

    “And the northern bear Cutler shall join and rise with the ram Sam Bradford. They shall together thusly pass to streaking lion, Nate Burleson, but alas, the orb will slip through his hands and the forces of evil will verily triumph…”

  379. kim from ohio says:

    Polaris-

    Here’s what I said: What I don’t like is conservatives and their absolute belief that God is on their side, so anyone who does not agree with them is anti-God, and the enemy.

    You are correct. I misspoke. It should have been: What I don’t like is conservatives WITH AN absolute belief that God is on their side, so anyone who does not agree with them is anti-God, and the enemy.

    Of course I realize that not everyone who is a conservative and/or republican is a Christian. I was specifically speaking of those conservatives who are in fact Christians who think God is on their side.

    I did not state it very “artfully” if you will.

  380. Polaris says:

    In otherwords kim, you were inarticulate. Just like Romney. Funny that you want me to give you the benefit of the doubt for being inarticulate but you (and the Dems) won’t give Romney that same benefit.

    Actually, no it makes perfect sense. Enough said.

    -Polaris

  381. HHR Registrar & Keeper of Demographic Records says:

    What Asian country is this new poster, “Kim No Know”, from?

  382. Polaris says:

    #390 Ah…the lost pigskin verses :D

    -Polaris

  383. Marv says:

    #392 kim from ohio,

    Conservatives do not believe that God in on their side. Conservative Christians strive to be on God’s side. God is not a partisan.

  384. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    I was specifically speaking of those conservatives who are in fact Christians who think God is on their side.

    Comment by kim from ohio

    The odds are in their favor.

  385. Walt says:

    What’s the story on this poll:

    General Election: Romney vs. Obama

    National Journal

    Obama 50
    Romney 43

  386. Yolanda says:

    Why are we debating things on this site!?

    I thought this was the official website for Paladin/CFP to release polls.

  387. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    quadringenti

  388. Pitchaboy says:

    Are Jenny red polls and Jenny Blue Polls conjoined twins?

  389. kim from ohio says:

    Yes, jason, I’m just a dumb troll. You boys just can’t take it when someone has a differing opinion. And honestly I was not looking into getting into an OvR debate. Because, like I said, I’m not so hot on Obama either. My original post merely questioned everyone’s long held, yet highly dubious belief that the MSM is completely biased and out to get Romney.

  390. Polaris says:

    #398 I saw the newstory, Walt on that poll, but do you have a link to the poll itself. I need to look under the hood.

    -Polaris

  391. rdelbov says:

    I have several friends who are “non social conservatives”. We don’t talk “moral” issues except things like “thou shall not steal”, “thou shall not murder” and stuff like that. I find it very easy to be tolerate with my friends, who are non Christians, on 99.9% of issues.

    On the flip liberals (both socially and economically) tend to either loathe, insult or degrade Christian Conservatives. Now for whatever reason liberal Christians like Obama or Pelosi or Biden have their faith ignored by social liberals. Its just funny how this works out.

  392. rdelbov says:

    No crosstabs to frisk on NJ poll. It could be +3R with very liberal indies or +15D with conservative indies.

    Not sure. I have not trashed it as there are no crosstabs out there.

  393. SusyQue says:

    In Pakistan they are having little children shouting, “death to America.” How heartbreaking for these little ones being filled with hate.

    How blessed we are to be Americans!

  394. sickofdems says:

    You gave it your best shot Kim…..time to go away….

    http://i.imgur.com/55OVo.gif

  395. John says:

    #398 – no internals. Your guess is a good as mine.

  396. Polaris says:

    #398 Nevermind. It’s a news article only from the National Journal of a poll that is SUPPOSED to be released on 28 September and shows no internals at all This doesn’t meet the minimum standards of polling ethics, so I’d disregard it.

    -Polaris

  397. jason says:

    ” Yes, jason, I’m just a dumb troll. ”

    Ok, that’s out of the way.

    Next troll…

  398. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    How blessed we are to be Americans!

    Comment by SusyQue

    not so different here

  399. jason says:

    Ahhh, here you go.

    “Anti-discrimination laws prohibit gay-only housing, but projects can be made friendly toward gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people through marketing and location. The nation’s first gay-friendly affordable senior housing facility opened in Los Angeles in 2007.”