EGO BOOST
GALLUP
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY
RASMUSSEN REPORTS
POLLING SITES
HEDGEHOG REPORT SOCIAL NETWORK

Search

YouGov Polls in Non-Competitive States

As expected, YouGov gave us even more polls for states that are not really in question on either side (Romney/Obama). I won’t post every state here, but I did find it interesting they consider Missouri a state that Romney has a “wide lead” in considering the he only holds a 6% lead.

PRESIDENT – MISSOURI (YouGov)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 43%

US SENATE – MISSOURI (YouGov)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 45%
Todd Akin (R) 38%

And since I rarely get a poll for my home state of Maryland, I might as well take advantage of it and post the numbers for that here.

PRESIDENT – MARYLAND (YouGov)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 58%
Mitt Romney (R) 36%

US SENATE – MARYLAND (YouGov)
Ben Cardin (D-inc) 50%
Dan Bongino (R) 30%

I am actually short of time now, so I won’t be able to post every state at this moment, but YouGov also included California, Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts showing wide leads for Obama and Arizona, Tennessee, Texas and Indiana showing big leads for Romney. On the US Senate side in the competitive races, the polls do show Elizabeth Warren ahead by a single percentage point over Scott Brown in Massachusetts, Richard Mourdock ahead by 3% over Joe Donnelly in Indiana, and Jeff Flake up by 6% over Richard Carmona in Arizona.

More later when I get a chance….

Posted by Dave at 2:12 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (610)

610 Responses to “YouGov Polls in Non-Competitive States”

  1. Bitterlaw says:

    I skimmed the last 50 comments on the prior thread. Did HHR break a troll? I’m not paying for that since I was not involved. How much does a broken troll cost?

  2. david says:

    has anyone else noticed the uptick for democrats in the MA, MO and WI senate races ever since Aikin made that comment. I knew it would hurt in MO and MA, but it is carrying over to WI.

  3. SusyQue says:

    The Middle East…a picture of despair.

  4. Big Joe says:

    Can’t keep up with all these polls but I don’t think anything has changed since pre-convention. Both candidates got some bounce, which of course faded, and we are back to a race with Obama slightly ahead.

    The debates won’t change this.

    It will be all about GOTV.

  5. No Tribe says:

    The state of the race is basically:

    In the west, Obama has pulled out of AZ, and Romney is pulling out of NM. All focus is on Nevada and Colorado.

    In the midwest, Obama has given up IN, and Romney has expanded into WI being a legit battleground, and fighting for MI to become one. All other focus is on Ohio and Iowa.

    In the northeast, Pennsylvania is no longer being invested in with any ads by the Republican side, and Obama has stopped airing. Only New Hampshire remains a focus.

    In the mid-atlantic to south-east, Obama has stopped visiting NC, smalled his ad buys, nearly ready to pull forces north and south. To Virginia and Florida, which remain a focus.

    So the polls aside, which are within the MoE and that’s all that matters. It’s down to this:

    Obama– 221
    Romney– 206

    There are eight states where both sides are playing like its a battleground, and one other (Michigan), where Romney is trying to make a play still.

  6. sickofdems says:

    Broken trolls going for about $2.35 on E-Bay.

    If they wear a bow…..as much as $3.

  7. Polaris says:

    #7 This seems to be a very fair assessment of the ground game. I would also add that Obama is virtually camping out in IA and WI and I promise you it’s not because he’s suddenly grown found of corn and Green Bay Packers football either.

    -Polaris

  8. DW says:

    Here is a house poll:

    NY_19

    Siena (not a conservative pollster)

    Gibson (R) 52
    Schreibman (D) 36

    now why this is interesting, is that back at the end of July a Dem internal had the Gibson up TEN points, while POS had the Gibson up 53/36, which Sienna has just confirmed. AND, Sabato says its a tossup seat, Roll call, tossup. Rothenberg, just tilt R, and Cook ,R tossup. Even Election Projection just says Weak R.

  9. jason says:

    ” Yes, jason, I’m just a dumb troll. ”

    I am glad Kim got it off her chest.

    You really don’t want to live with this stuff eating you inside.

    The truth liberates you.

  10. Waingro says:

    Did you guys already talk about the Ras Wisco Senate poll? Yikes. Not good.

  11. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    Romney has released his 2011 tax returns

  12. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    Dick Morris is out with an article on the state of the polling world.

    It’s pile on but just reinforces what we have been saying.

  13. DW says:

    Romney Releases 2011 Tax Returns; Paid $1.9 Million on $13.7 in Income…

    …donated $4,020,772 to charity

    OUCH…that backfired on Obama.

  14. jason says:

    Akin is a real tragedy.

    Can’t underestimate the damage….

    Every time I think of McCaskill keeping this seat it kills me.

  15. DW says:

    i wonder how much Biden donated to charity? $5?

  16. jason says:

    The Dems will whine about the 15% rate.

  17. Waingro says:

    #16, retaking the Senate is not looking so good now.

  18. Waingro says:

    They are also gonna whine about just releasing a “summary” of the previous 20 years of returns.

  19. DW says:

    19 – don’t forget we are still seeing polls in the wake of the Dem convention where most of these dem senate candidates spoke and increased their visibility…give it another few weeks and we will see where the races are.

  20. DW says:

    no doubt they were hoping to see no taxes paid and nothing given to charity.

  21. jason says:

    ” Housing Project For Elderly Gays Gets Approval In Philadelphia ”

    Do you have to prove you are gay?

  22. jason says:

    Ohio Joe will soon be here to say we need to support Akin even if he is sure to lose.

  23. SusyQue says:

    Big Government Hammer Hits as Chick-fil-A Caves

    By now you might have heard the story about Chick-fil-A and its efforts to open a store in Chicago. The restaurant corporation, in order to appease the strong-arm tactics of one of the city leaders, agreed to stop funding traditional marriage advocacy groups. That action is shocking enough, but what cuts equally to the core of American fiber, is the fact that the “government” dictated how a business should be run, and the business listened.

    This is a real disappointment. He chose wealth
    over integrity of family values!

  24. jason says:

    Ahhh, here you go.

    “Anti-discrimination laws prohibit gay-only housing, but projects can be made friendly toward gays, lesbians, bisexuals and transgendered people through marketing and location. The nation’s first gay-friendly affordable senior housing facility opened in Los Angeles in 2007.”

  25. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    15.Romney Releases 2011 Tax Returns; Paid $1.9 Million on $13.7 in Income…

    …donated $4,020,772 to charity

    OUCH…that backfired on Obama.

    Comment by DW

    The left will bitch that this is only a 7.2% tax rate.

  26. DW says:

    PPIC

    CALIFORNIA

    Obama 53
    Romney 39

    9/9-9/16

    Strange, much closer for Romney than other recent polls by SUSA (-22) and Field (-24).

  27. Polaris says:

    #27 Let them. The only people that will care about the “rate” and not that Romney gave generously to charity are those that were going to vote for Obama anyway.

    Most people understand that if you have a LEGIT deduction on your taxes, you take it. Certainly middle-class wage earners understand this!

    -Polaris

  28. SusyQue says:

    Kim could very well be a “Ken”…same with Yolanda…If you post as a woman, at first, you will be treated with a little more kindness and understanding….at least for a day.

  29. SusyQue says:

    The left is a lost cause…irrational…!

  30. jason says:

    I hope they stiff them…

    “The Democratic National Committee (DNC) owes at least $8 million to a bank owned by one of the largest unions in the country, according to the committee’s most recent financial report.

    The DNC initiated an $8 million loan with the Amalgamated Bank of New York on Aug. 10, the report shows, accounting for the majority of the committee’s overall debt of $11 million.”

  31. SusyQue says:

    #31…I sure hope you are correct. It did seem rather strange to give into one of your important godly values.

  32. jason says:

    ” If you post as a woman, at first, you will be treated with a little more kindness and understanding ”

    Not me, I am not a sexist pig.

    Actually Kim left before I could tell her to GFH.

  33. sir alberto says:

    That’s why he dumped it on a Friday

  34. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    the Amalgamated Bank of New York might as well start writing off the loss now.

  35. jason says:

    I treat men and women equally.

    Like s-it.

    Bronco and Tebow fans do get a five minute break however.

  36. Bitterlaw says:

    $4 million to charity? What a terrible waste. Just think how much good the Federal government ciukd have done with that money? That would have paid $100k to 40 employees.

  37. Apologetic California in the 18eme arr. says:

    Obama will hit 60 in Cali, Romney 38. But with much reduce libtard turnout so should still Romney in shaving off 200k-400k vote off popular vote margin from Cali alone.

  38. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – let’s test Add’s reaction time.

    If Cutler was so awesome, why did Denver get rid of him?

  39. John says:

    ARG poll
    Obama 49 Romney 47
    (Dems +6)
    Romney leads 50-43% with ID’s
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-15206

  40. SusyQue says:

    How many lackeys who work for ooo owe back taxes!
    Remember Treasurer Geithner….! An oxymoron!

  41. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    34.#31…I sure hope you are correct. It did seem rather strange to give into one of your important godly values.

    Comment by SusyQue

    It was a fraud perpetrated by the salad tossers to create a backlash against CF by their loyal supporters.

  42. MD says:

    7 – I can confirm this. No ads lately at all in PA from either side.

  43. Polaris says:

    #42 I will want to break that poll down but D+6 is a 2008-type poll and if Obama+2 is the best they can do, then this is a terrific poll for Romney.

    -Polaris

  44. Polaris says:

    #45 I know you disagree with me, but I think it’s the right call. The PA (esp Philly) media market is expensive, and honestly if Romney takes PA, then Ohio will have long since fallen. Basically if Romney takes PA he doesn’t need it and if he needs it, he can’t get it.

    PA is a blue state.

    -Polaris

  45. GPO says:

    # 7 is excellent description on state of the race

  46. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – I did see a Tom Smith ad on Tuesday. If he wants to waste money, he can send it to me.

  47. Hunter says:

    Polaris…

    Please shed some light on the following…

    If Romney is ahead by high single digits to low double digits with indies, what significance does that have in the race?…

    I THINK I know the answer but some validation either way would be appreciated…

  48. MD says:

    Polaris – actually, I disagreed when I thought Romney had a huge amount of $. It seems as though that is not the case. Given that, I now agree with the move.

    PA was never going to be won by Romney. I saw 2 to 4 as best case and after Ryan was selected I went to 4 to 6. I now think that is best case. I really like Ryan but he doesn’t play well to the senior crowd. That is hurting us in FL as well. In 16, as a POTUS candidate, they might be ready for his message but as of now they are not.

  49. Hunter says:

    Jason…

    You are soooooo…burly and strong…

    If I live in CO does that give me some sort of reprieve from your arseholness?…

  50. DW says:

    Regarding #7, with Romney at 206, the path is pretty clear:

    FL will go Romney. The purple strategies poll was encouraging today

    That puts him at 235

    If Rasmussen is right about IA and NH, that puts him at 245

    And if Rasmussen is right about CO, that puts him at 254

    Then to get to 270 from here is the hardest. 16 more EVS needed from:
    VA 13
    NV 6
    OH 18
    WI 10
    MI 16

  51. Bitterlaw says:

    Hunter – if you fight with jason, you draw the attention of the Philly A-holes. When you poke one a-hole, you poke them all.

  52. Waingro says:

    #53, Nevada is actually looking very promising in several polls.

  53. Hunter says:

    Bitter…

    I just threw up in my mouth…

  54. DW says:

    NV is looking good. I think we likely get CO and NV or neither.

  55. Polaris says:

    #50 Not sure what you’re expecting so I’ll just give my take. Indies tend to be a-political and have a severe mistrust of both parties and often politicians in general.

    For Romney to be up with Indies implies that they are tired of the status quoe/incumbant. I note that Indies have gone to the challenging party both in 2000, 2004, AND 2008.

    Basically if we assume that this is a 2004 type election, Romney is very much in the same place Kerry was in 2004 except that Obama’s fundamentals (like JA) aren’t nearly as strong as they were for Bush in 2004.

    My take.

    -Polaris

  56. MD says:

    54 – You stand alone with that comment.

  57. Scott says:

    For what it is worth in the YouGov Mass. Senate Poll, Scott Brown trails by 1 with Registered voters and the race is tied at 44% among Likely voters.
    I believe Brown did well in last night’s debate.

  58. jason says:

    ” If I live in CO does that give me some sort of reprieve from your arseholness?…”

    No.

  59. jason says:

    54. Thanks Bitter. I will stand with the A-holes too, all for one, one for all.

  60. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    @60 YouGov Has LV Samples?

  61. DW says:

    58 – excellent. I know an indy just like that. I never bring up politics with him because he always goes off on both parties, they are all corrupt, etc. He lives in NY. But recently on the phone HE brought up the election ranting and raving about the “piece of work” we have in the white house, and how he cannot wait to vote him out. I was stunned, and hope there are many more independents like him.

  62. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – Add must be sleeping. I thought the Cutler comment would bring him to the surface.

  63. John says:

    My humble take on the race if anyone is interested…

    Most noteworthy “unskewed” national polls show a dead heat just like previous the conventions and the Obama bounce has evaporated.
    Other polls must have a “skewed”, or oversampling of Democrats to show any kind of Obama lead, or refuse to acknowledge Obama’s bounce is gone.
    I have yet to see a national poll that shows an Obama lead outside the MOE that hasn’t been skewed.
    State polls always lag behind national polls especially national tracking polls.
    Retake the state polls next week and it will show movement back to Romney, or more to the point, Obama’s bounce fizzling out.

  64. jason says:

    Yep, I have seen no Romney or Obama ads lately in the Harrisburg market.

    Tom Smith ads are common, a few for Casey calling Smith a tea partier.

  65. rdelbov says:

    John are you copying me? Or are we just in agreement?

    Either way we are in agreement

  66. Confucious says:

    He who go to bed with itchy Philly A-hole, wake up with smelly finger, and holey sock!

  67. jason says:

    65. Maybe he can’t answer.

    The truth was Denver was in a good position to evaluate him and I bet they were happy to dump him.

    A leopard does not change its spots.

    Whining in Denver, whining in Chicago.

  68. Waingro says:

    FWIW: WBZ Channel 4 has been doing a online poll on the Brown-Warren debate and right now Brown leads 52-48.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/09/21/keller-large-the-big-winner-debates/

  69. John says:

    68 – absolutely.

  70. rdelbov says:

    +4 or +5D or +6 on that ARG D/R/I?

  71. Confucious says:

    Lucky number 69! Friday Night!

  72. Ben Romney says:

    Hi Gang! How r u?
    I want to let you know something: PLEASE RELAX! Everything is fine. mitt is leading and will win the election. and here`s why! If you watch all these polls of the MSM you would think it`s 2008 all over again. But by far it isnt!!!
    Rethink in party registration the R`s have the highest point since 2002!! In 2008 it was D+7 now its R+4! Every poll which is D+7 or better-trash!! Won´t happen this time!
    You only need to take a look where the candidates are campaigning and you know where we stand. Mitt is in IA NV CO NH OH VA WI Obama too!!. So IN NC FL are in the bag! IA NV WI NH goes to Obama by a wide wide margin in 2008! So if he would ahve a stron lead there he wouldn`t campaining there. He and Mitt would be in NC FL IN NE2 MO AZ! Gallup says the race is a tie with RV and Mitt would be ahead with LV! Rasmussen the same with a small noise yesterday and today!
    Looks great! The election is far from over but from today Mitt Romney would win.Let`s win the debates and work hard as we can in the next 8weeks and he`ll be the next President!!
    Have a great evening and a good start in the weekend!!
    Best regards from Germany

  73. Scott says:

    #63
    Likely voter results for the Presidential Race are in Section 3 of the crosstabs in each YouGov Poll.

  74. kim from ohio says:

    @ SusyQue

    Kim could very well be a “Ken”…same with Yolanda…If you post as a woman, at first, you will be treated with a little more kindness and understanding….at least for a day.

    Yep, I’m feeling nothing but love around this place.

    Jason- I didn’t leave, and I won’t since the main reason I’m here is actually for all of the poll discussion, even though this is a conservative site.

    And I should have suspected you were an Broncos fan (or Steelers) As a life-long Browns fan, with nothing but disgust for John Elway since the ’80s we are natural enemies.

  75. Waingro says:

    #75, nice. All I need is a post from Ron Burgandy and I leave my office with my head high heading into the weekend!

  76. MD says:

    Make my sandwich Bytch!!!!

  77. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “the main reason I’m here is actually for all of the poll discussion”

    False, you are here to troll

  78. OHIO JOE says:

    “Ohio Joe will soon be here to say we need to support Akin even if he is sure to lose.” Hey, at least he does write off 47% of the American population, but I am still voting for Mr. Romney at the top of the ticket.

  79. MD says:

    69 – that is gross

  80. MD says:

    SANTORUM WOULD WIN PA!!!!!!

  81. MD says:

    Bitter,

    This is like the old days. Multiple battles at once. I feel 5 years younger all of a sudden.

  82. MD says:

    81 – Dead Ender

    Great news! COD might run in 14!

  83. OHIO JOE says:

    “SANTORUM WOULD WIN PA!!!!!!” Not necessarily, but he would win a few other swing/battleground states.

  84. MD says:

    Kim,

    Light on the mayo please.

  85. MD says:

    86 – Yes, dead ender. It makes absolute sense if you count AL and MS as swing states.

    Oh wait, he would win OH, IA, CO and NV. No doubts at all!!!!!!

    Are you able to dress yourself?

  86. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “Not necessarily, but he would win a few other swing/battleground states.”

    False

  87. OHIO JOE says:

    “Great news! COD might run in 14!” And maybe your RINO friend Mr. Castle will run too. Oh wait, Mr. Specter might even for in PA and Mr. Crist might run in Florida for you.

  88. Waingro says:

    “Not necessarily, but he would win a few other swing/battleground states.”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HAUzVJPM2g

  89. OHIO JOE says:

    “Oh wait, he would win OH, IA, CO and NV. No doubts at all!!!!!!”

    The first two states you are correct, the second two states you are incorrect, but nice try for a RINO.

  90. OHIO JOE says:

    Maybe you guys can run somebody in KY in the primary while you are at it.

  91. Apologetic California in the 18eme arr. says:

    Romney is ahead of McCain’s margins in all off the states McCain won. Obama is well behind his margins on the states he won. That’s all you need to know. Whoever wins the popular vote, wins the EC as well.

  92. DW says:

    one more link on Drudge about the Romney tax returns about donations:

    Doubles rate of Obamas’ giving…

  93. Waingro says:

    #95, saw that. Phenomenal.

  94. rdelbov says:

    The ARG poll which is only +2 for Obama appears to be +6D

    Likely to 38-32-30

    +6D translate into +2 for Obama

    Pew is +12D and is +8 for Obama

    see the relationship?

    Samples matter

  95. Bitterlaw says:

    Not necessarily, but he would win a few other swing/battleground states.

    Comment by OHIO JOE

    Breaking News – Medical science has developed a new test for brain activity. Posting a belief that Rick Santorum would win swing states is now confirmed as a sign of brain death.

  96. DW says:

    98, so ARG is saying that Dem turnout will be only 1 point less than four years ago, and they can only get it to be Obama +2 in their topline number.

  97. Bitterlaw says:

    MD – If only Kwame and Aaron in TX would return. Those were truly the good times.

  98. rdelbov says:

    Actually I see it now.

    ARG sees 40-34-26.

    So an uptick from 2008. Not 38-32 but 40-34.

    12% AA

  99. RB says:

    Would Texas be considered a swing state of Rick were on the ticket. He would get 35-38% in NJ.

  100. Hunter says:

    98…

    Straight math in both samples, maybe I’m being simplistic, but…

    +12 = +4

    +6 = +2

    4 is the magic difference…

    So anything really +5 and below is either a slight tie or Romney win…

  101. hugh says:

    santorum would be crushed in all those states. He would be an akin wannabe. in my view. There are not enough social conservatives to ever give santorum a win in any swing state know that he is fairly well known. To everyone else he is a bozo, though I would have voted for that bozo. However, he would not have gotten a dime of contribution from me since he would be a sure loser.

  102. Yolanda says:

    #77–

    Um, why are you questioning my gender?! Do you find it odd that a Republican can be a woman?!!

    I was ignoring all the feeding people here were giving you, because that’s my stance on trolls, but now you’ve crossed a line!

    It’s on now, b***ch!

  103. Polaris says:

    testing

  104. kim from ohio says:

    “the main reason I’m here is actually for all of the poll discussion”

    False, you are here to troll

    Comment by A HHR Fact Checker — September 21, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

    So, by saying that I disagree with something, specifically MSM bias, I am categorized as a troll. Disagreement about MSM bias is inflammatory? It is no wonder you all have such a disbelief that Romney is going to lose this election. You cannot in your wildest dreams believe that anyone could actually disagree with you. For the last few months I’ve watched many of you cry foul when you see a poll result you don’t like, while using an outlying R+ poll that you do like to shore up your reasoning for discrediting your first poll.

    I suffered from the same insanity in 2004. I was so furious at Bush for dragging us into 2 wars that I could not see straight. I barely cared for Kerry, I was voting “anybody but Bush” It did not work out well for Kerry, and It will not work out for Romney. You have seen the internals that show that a HUGE chunk of people voting for Romney are actually casting their votes AGAINST Obama. While it is a great motivator for people who actively hate Obama, we all know that is not where this election lies. The undecideds have the power on this one, and if they have not decided that they hate Obama yet, they are not likely to do so.

    I also have some theories on why the RDI numbers are closer to correct than you all think, but I’ll save that, and why Romney will lose Ohio for another time. I really do have to go pretty myself up and make a sandwich now.

  105. Polaris says:

    Hmm…some of my posts got eaten I think…

    -Polaris

  106. kim from ohio says:

    Yolanda- That was not my quote. See post 30.

  107. Polaris says:

    Anyway that ARG poll shows some very favorable numbers for Romney once you look inside, and even with D+6 it’s MOE.

    Hint: Romney takes Indies by 7 or so.

    -Polaris

  108. Yolanda says:

    Why the frick are we talking about Rick Santorum right now?!!

    If Santorum were the nominee now, we’d be checking the DRI to see if Idaho is really as competitive as the polls have been suggesting.

    If Santorum were the nominee now, Scott Brown would’ve already packed up his office and returned to modeling men’s polo shirts in Sears catalogs.

    In Santorum were the nominee now, Christine O’Donnell would be wiping her brow, thinking, “Woosh…At least someone’s losing more embarrassingly than I did!”

  109. A HHR Fact Checker says:

    “I really do have to go pretty myself up and make a sandwich now.”

    false you’re making that sandwich for MD and false on you not being a troll, you are a troll. that is fact.

  110. Yolanda says:

    #110–

    My apologies.

    You’re back to ok in my book.

    SusyQue…it’s ON, b***ch!!

  111. SusyQue says:

    Ann Romney hits the Nail on the Head
    By Jennifer Rubin

    Republicans and Mitt Romney are fortunate to have Ann Romney around for many reasons. For one thing, she has candor in abundance. In reaction to the public meltdown in some Republican corners (We’re doomed! He’s blown it!), she in an Iowa radio interview essentially told the whiners to buck up and stop overreacting. CBS News reports:

    “This is hard and, you know, it’s an important thing that we’re doing right now and it’s an important election and it is time for all Americans to realize how significant this election is and how lucky we are to have someone with Mitt’s qualifications and experience and know-how to be able to have the opportunity to run this country,” Romney said.
    Even as conservative detractors escalate their critiques of how Mitt Romney has operated his bid for the presidency — conservative journalist Peggy Noonan on Thursday called it a “rolling calamity” — Ann Romney dismissed the negative appraisals.
    “It’s nonsense and the chattering class. .?.?. you hear it and then you just let it go right by,” she said. “Honestly, at this point, I’m not surprised by anything.”
    Listen, I don’t think it’s been lost on the leadership in Boston or on the candidates that the campaign needed to be become more focused, respond more quickly to events, and to connect the dots for voters on Romney-Ryan agenda items. (Ed Gillespie has been spending a good deal of his week explaining that they are working on these points.) But the whining and moaning among conservatives is entirely disproportionate to the status of the race. Romney isn’t ahead, but he remains in striking distance. Even Democrats have noticed. A Democratic operative expressed to me surprise this morning that Republicans are so wigged out over, what she called, “a five-point race.”

    Ann’s advice that the Beltway folk should get a grip is well-timed. But the flip side of this is that throughout the campaign the Romney team has not cultivated even conservative media. Maybe it was a lost cause in some cases; there are conservative critics who’d rather lose than be proven wrong in their assessment of Romney.

    That said All those blue-jacketed, khaki-pants-wearing operatives who flock around the governor at campaign events, throwing in their two cents, or who attend endless meetings to make sure they “contribute” (i.e. justify their salary), could have spent time more wisely thinking about the ticket’s message, shortening its reaction time and creating some media relationships.

    So Ann is right that the professional Republican chatterers should get a hold of themselves if they want to pull this together. And the campaign critics were right in surfacing many issues, which the campaign is now trying to address. What remains to be seen is if the Romney team can now execute what they say they want to do. But panicking loudly and publicly isn’t the way to get it done.

  112. Polaris says:

    We KNOW why most of the DRI numbers are wrong. So does Romney’s pollster. Heck, the Marist head pollster TOLD US why the DRI numbers were so badly Dem skewed.

    Marist believes it is 2008 all over again. He said as much. MacLaughlin today flat out TOLD us that Obama is pressing and harassing pollsters to skew their sampling methods to pick more democrats. You can see his artical on NRO: Campaign Spot.

    We don’t have to imagine why most of the polls are picking up too many democrats. We KNOW why they are, and it’s garbage. It has nothing to do with the reality on the ground.

    -Polaris

  113. Yolanda says:

    How, oh how is Claire McCaskill still going to be sitting in the Senate come 2018?

  114. rdelbov says:

    There are two paths to a Romney win

    Yup DRI matters. If ARG’s 40-34 becomes 36-33 its a narrow Romney win. Very narrow.

    Then make it a 10% win among indies instead of 7%(like this poll) and Romney wins by 2%

    I for one see this as a very possible scenerio

  115. Polaris says:

    If you can stomache it, read 538. Nate Silver is now claiming that Obama’s bounce may not be receding.

    Guess he missed the Gallup and Rasmussen tracks, huh.

    -Polaris

  116. DW says:

    111 – Its a point we kept making earlier in the week. When these polls give their internals, the results really are very similar to what we see from Rasmussen once you recalibrate the party id. It all comes down to party turnout, and which way the independents go.

    If someone calls himself an independent, and likes 16 trillion in debt, a terrifying inept foreign policy and the US dollar about to be turned into monopoly money, and an erosion of freedom, then they really were not an independent all alone.

  117. Big Joe says:

    Did someone actually mention 2018????

  118. Patk says:

    I’m feeling alright about Obama winning and then getting Rubio in 2016.

  119. rdelbov says:

    convention bounce is gone!!!

    just look at ARGGGGGGGGGGGG

  120. Big Joe says:

    Well looks like my 2016 prediction of Hillary vs Palin looks like sh*t. Hey I can admit when I am wrong.

  121. Patk says:

    Speaking of ARG. Why does Real Clear Politics not use their polls. Are they not considered good enoough?

  122. Polaris says:

    #125 They don’t say what Tom Bevan wants to hear and now he ‘remembers’ past cycle complaints about ARG’s sampling problems (which were quite real and apparently have been cleaned up a bit).

    -Polaris

  123. Patk says:

    Never mind that last one. I misspoke. There was awhile back where some ARG polls weren’t being posted at RCP.

  124. Polaris says:

    #123 You are more than welcome to go to 538 and inform Nate. I’ll sit back and get the popcorn….

    -Polaris

  125. MD says:

    Yea, that’s me dead ender. A RINO! LOL!

    I was against both Specter and Crist very early on for the record. That can be verified.

    Do you walk on all fours still?

  126. MD says:

    Kim,

    Good work on the sandwich babe. Now, we need to talk about the bow again.

  127. sir alberto says:

    Shaddup

  128. Polaris says:

    I am not seeing ARG in the RCP average. Probably for reasons I have already stated. I DO see the internal-less National Journal poll in there, however. You are becoming a HACK Tom Bevan.

    -Polaris

  129. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – MASSACHUSETTS (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 56%
    Mitt Romney (R) 37%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 58.8/39.3

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/massachusetts/

  130. kim from ohio says:

    Polaris-

    Gee, why didn’t you TELL me you had proof this was all rigged. I mean, the bastion of unbiased media, The National Review, has just interviewed a Republican pollster who says it’s rigged? Well cased closed!. As you say (sarc)

    I mean, the real question is what does Karl Rove think is going on? That will tell me something. again, (sarc)

    Ever consider the fact that the polls and the pollsters might be right and the people saying they are wrong are just doing so to avoid a complete psychological deflation of the Romney base?

  131. MD says:

    124 – Joe

    I don’t see either running. I had a guy try to tell me that Jeb Bush would be the candidate in 16 (assuming a Romney loss now which is a big assumption). I highly doubt it. Too many young superstars waiting in the wings.

    So, when Rubio, Ryan and Jindal are running in 16, will dead ender lable them RINO’s if Santorum is running? The funny thing is I totally agree with him on Crist and Specter.

    Still, he is a complete and total retard.

  132. Polaris says:

    #134 Kim, the head pollster from Marist on the Hugh Hewitt Show ADMITED with is own words that the pollsters were using 2008 as a model.

    It doesn’t get any plainer than that.

    Now, do YOU really think this is a 2008 type election? Yes or no.

    Don’t quibble.

    -Polaris

  133. Patk says:

    132: Looks like he doesn’t include the national ARG polls. But he does include state ARG polls. For whatever reason.

  134. Polaris says:

    Kim,

    Do YOU really think the electorate will be like 2008 all over again. YES or NO?

    -Polaris

  135. lisab says:

    “has anyone else noticed the uptick for democrats in the MA, MO and WI senate races ever since Aikin made that comment. I knew it would hurt in MO and MA, but it is carrying over to WI.” david

    because MA and WI have a lot of non-crazy people in them, and when you get a religious nutcase like akin going

    it confirms the worst about the gop

  136. GeorgeIllinois says:

    We’ve been talking about how the MSM will toss Obama soft ball questions in the debates, etc.

    I’m wondering if Jorge Ramos’ interview of Obama on Univision hasn’t derailed those plans–at least to some extent.

    Are these MSM types going to let some guy on a Spanish language network outshine them?

    Could be interesting.

    Now, I have to step away and watch the Homecoming Parade in town. My 7th grade grand nephew will be riding on the JFL trailer.

  137. Waingro says:

    PPP Wisco Senate Poll:

    Baldwin: 49
    Thompson: 45

    Baldwin up 2 with Indies. And 50% disapproval for Thompson.

    D/R/R: 34/31/35

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_92112.pdf

  138. bio mom says:

    122 then you have your head buried in the sand. Obama unleashed for 4 more years will do unimaginable damage to the country.

  139. Waingro says:

    #141: Er, I mean D/R/I

  140. Walt says:

    Hmmm…

    Aiken takin’ a lickin’
    But frickin’ keeps on tickin’….

    “FORWARD”

  141. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – WASHINGTON (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
    Mitt Romney (R) 39%
    my numbers: Obama/Romney: 49.9/44.4

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/washington-state/

  142. Walt says:

    Now I try to catch up again.

    Was time to vacuum again and do battle with the spiders…

    Down to #25!

  143. GF says:

    108- So, two wars, huh? We can debate Iraq until Hell freezes over, but for you to b*tch about going to Afghanistan shows your true colours, Pinko; the Taliban harboured AQ and we had every moral right to go in there and destroy that country. That we chose to help rebuild it says a lot about the US b/c many other “industrialized” nations would walk over their enemies and leave them to rot.

  144. Walt says:

    27.15.Romney Releases 2011 Tax Returns; Paid $1.9 Million on $13.7 in Income…

    …donated $4,020,772 to charity

    OUCH…that backfired on Obama.

    Comment by DW

    The left will bitch that this is only a 7.2% tax rate.

    Comment by INDIA PAPA 727
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    Yeah, but his FIT plus charitable contributions equals 44%.

    Pretty good for a man who supposedly does not give a hoot about the downtrodden. :)

  145. Polaris says:

    Warning: Long Post.

    This is today’s national RCP snapshot:

    RCP Average 9/11 – 9/20 — — 48.6 44.7 Obama +3.9
    Rasmussen Tracking 9/18 – 9/20 1500 LV 3.0 46 45 Obama +1
    National Journal 9/15 – 9/19 1055 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
    Gallup Tracking 9/14 – 9/20 3050 RV 2.0 47 47 Tie
    Associated Press/GfK 9/13 – 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
    Reason-Rupe 9/13 – 9/17 787 LV 4.3 52 45 Obama +7
    Hartford Courant/UConn 9/11 – 9/18 1186 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3
    Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 9/13 – 9/16 1344 LV 2.7 48 45 Obama +3
    Pew Research 9/12 – 9/16 2268 LV 2.4 51 43 Obama +8
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/12 – 9/16 736 LV 3.6 50 45 Obama +5

    Now let’s look at the data:

    We have a +0, 2 +1s, 2 +3s, +5,+7,+8

    Assuming a MOE of about 3, we see bifurcated curve. We see one that is about +2 Obama and another that is about +7 Obama.

    This is consistant with what we are seeing in the DRIs of the national polls. We have a couple of honest ones that are using ready reasonble and conservative +2D models, but everyone else is using +7D.

    -Polaris

  146. DW says:

    wasn’t it a couple years ago that Biden donated some $200 to charity?

  147. MD says:

    Akin sure didn’t help. Could very easily cost us the majority. Only the dead enders think it was a good idea for him to stay in.

  148. Polaris says:

    #151 Akin cares about Akin. He made that clear enough. He should have dropped out when he opened mouth and inserted Shotgun.

    -Polaris

  149. MD says:

    The msm headlines don’t mention his charitable giving. A shock to everyone I am certain.

    I still have to laugh how the retard has to bring Specter and Crist into it. 2 guys I hated.

  150. lisab says:

    “Now for whatever reason liberal Christians like Obama or Pelosi or Biden have their faith ignored by social liberals. Its just funny how this works out.”

    because they do not try to use government to proselytize

  151. Polaris says:

    Crist is now campiagning for Obama in florida. Wasn’t he Chek’s “bright new hope for the GOP” at one time?

    -Polaris

  152. Walt says:

    Hey,

    In the MD U.S. Senate race is there not a guy running as an Indy as well? I believe I saw an ad of his this morning. He says both parties are busted. Time for a real nonpartisan or some such message.

    All that does IMO is bleed votes away from the R candidate.

  153. lisab says:

    “We’ve been talking about how the MSM will toss Obama soft ball questions in the debates, etc.

    I’m wondering if Jorge Ramos’ interview of Obama on Univision hasn’t derailed those plans–at least to some extent.”

    doubtful

  154. kim from ohio says:

    Polaris-

    No, it will not be like 2008. But you are taking too simplistic of a view to just look at DRI numerically and not look at what is going on behind the numbers.

    This is why DRIs have been consistently high single digits +D: Many of the self proclaimed independents are actually disenchanted republicans, tea party etc. (THAT is why you are seeing supposed independents lean so heavily towards Romney.) As a result, there are actually fewer people calling themselves republicans. They are still being counted in these polls, but as independents, not republicans. Do I have anything to back this up? Nope. Just a gut feeling. Now everyone tell me why I am wrong.

  155. Polaris says:

    MSM: What Obama interview on Univison? Didn’t happen.

    -Polaris

  156. Walt says:

    109.Hmm…some of my posts got eaten I think…

    -Polaris

    ^^^^^^
    I think Dave W put you on a plan where when you go over a certain number of posts per month, then you have to pay. :)

  157. Polaris says:

    #158 You are wrong. In 2008 that may have been true, but the republicans have come home not only in 2010 but pretty much all other elections done SINCE Nov 2008 (including the GA Sen runoff race in 2008).

    That means those extra indies aren’t (mostly) dissaffected GOP any more than they are disaffected Dems.

    Don’t believe me? Ask Gallup, the oldest and most respected pollster of them all. He doesn’t have a DRI of +7. It’s not even close.

    -Polaris

  158. Optimus Prime says:

    Saw McCain ripping Nooner on Fox. Nice.

  159. Polaris says:

    #158 If what you are saying is true, then in 2010 (and all the other elections since 2008) we should have been seeing high Dem DRIs but GOP results with high Indies. We haven’t.

    Your premise is that 2008 was a “realignment” election. It wasn’t. That canard was shot down years ago.

    That means that the polls are WRONG if they use 2008 type models. It’s that simple.

    -Polaris

  160. lisab says:

    YouTube user MadMark came across the stricken insect lying motionless on his garden path before carefully picking it up and giving it a helping hand.

    He explained: ‘I found a bumblebee lying on its back and motionless on the path and just had to try and help it. I put some honey on its hand and this is what happened.’

    Instead of letting Mother Nature take its course, the thoughtful amateur film maker decided to do all he could to nurse it back to health while recording the bee’s progress.

    He uploaded the video entitled ‘Bringing a Bumblebee back to life’ online explaining: ‘I saw a video on here once of someone reviving a bee with sugar water so thought I would try to save this one with some honey …. It worked.’

    The clip shows the thoughtful wildlife fan letting the bee, which survives on nectar, suck up the honey before slowly making a recovery.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIzrt_f0Gfg&feature=player_embedded

  161. Polaris says:

    Basically,

    If you don’t think it’s 2008 all over again then you can not believe any pollster that is claiming a 2008 type model.

    It is that simple.

    -Polaris

  162. DW says:

    165 – much less those polls that say Dems will do BETTER than 2008.

  163. DW says:

    Polaris, I said weeks ago that somoene missed a golden opportunity to create a website that would include only national polls that show their work, and then make it so the user could punch in their proposed party turnout percentages, and click GO and it would re-calibrate all the polls based on the selections.

  164. Polaris says:

    #166 Indeed. It’s instructive to remember that a lot of those MSM polls were actually predicting an Obama win by as much as fifteen points which was laughably wrong. Most don’t remember it because Obama did win….

    -Polaris

  165. lisab says:

    “then make it so the user could punch in their proposed party turnout percentages, and click GO and it would re-calibrate all the polls based on the selections.”

    how can you really calculate that accurately?

  166. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    Rasmussen publishes his monthly party/partisan ID numbers at the beginning of each month.

    I’d highly recommend that the clueless go to Rasmussen Reports and review the the data.

    It’s really that simple.

  167. lisab says:

    meaning the web site is easy enough, it is just simple html and javascript

    but the math would be dodgy at best

  168. Bitterlaw says:

    109.Hmm…some of my posts got eaten I think…

    -Polaris

    Polaris is just trying to jam in the total number of posts that he didn’t make when he disappeared for most of the past 2 years.

  169. Mr. Vito says:

    “I will stand with the A-holes too, all for one, one for all.”

    I stand with MD… I don’t normally have a choice, and otherwise I am generally flaccid.

  170. Polaris says:

    #169 As long as you weren’t going for professional rigor (which would also require adjusting the MOE for each sample which should be done with care), in principle it shouldn’t be too difficult.

    Each poll would have the base percentages for each sub-sample, and then the user could turn the nob so to speak. It could all be done with weighting on a spread-sheet I am guessing.

    Of course it would not be suitable for professional analysis.

    -Polaris

  171. Mr. Vito says:

    And, yes, with that I expect to be nominated for gayest post of the day…

  172. DW says:

    strange…
    this liberal polling site I linked here a while back:

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    has a 2012 presidental dashboard…for days the Obama number has been steadily growing toward 4.0. Just earlier today it was around +3.8 or so, and suddenly it just dropped to just +2.6 …

    Obama 47.5
    Romney 44.9

    I have no idea what polls or formula they have behind this, but this is clearly a close race.

  173. Polaris says:

    #171 I don’t think we would be looking for true professional rigor, but merely a first order approximation. Averaging polls together is already at best a first order approximation….as I’m sure you’ll agree.

    -Polaris

  174. Bitterlaw says:

    If you don’t think it’s 2008 all over again then you can not believe any pollster that is claiming a 2008 type model.

    It is that simple.

    -Polaris

    I don’t think it’s 2008 again. Polaris seems to forget that he didn’t realize it was “2008” in 2008.

  175. Walt says:

    Are these polls using straight math?

    Or are they using the new proposed Phila. Housing Project math?

  176. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Vito – Of course you stand with MD. He gives you courage. Without him, you would be spineless.

  177. SusyQue says:

    #159…obama was interviewed on univision and he was an absolute flop. The host scolded him for not doing what he promised!

  178. Polaris says:

    #178 That’s not true Bitter, but I’m not going to continue to beat a dead equine.

    -Polaris

  179. michael corleone says:

    More bad news – from gmu:

    Ballot Requests

    Iowa is posting their absentee ballot requests on-line and eventually will post the returned ballots — by party registration. The requests are decidedly in a Democratic direction with 67.2% of the 153,542 ballots requested from registered Democrats. An Iowa Republican political operative “grimaces” at these numbers, but since at least 2004, more Iowa Democrats have voted early than Republicans. The state has a generous number of early votes, so these statistics will be worth watching to see if Iowa indeed has a close election this cycle.

    Party

    Ballot Requests

    Dem

    103,200

    67.2%

    Rep

    17,282

    11.3%

    None

    32,918

    21.4%

    Other

    142

    0.1%

    Total

    153,542

    An additional word on Iowa. Iowa law states that satellite early voting polling locations, “shall be established upon receipt of a petition signed by not less than one hundred eligible electors requesting that a satellite absentee voting station be established at a location to be described on the petition.” The number of petitions has reportedly increased. Apparently, Republicans are encouraging church goers to submit petitions and Democrats are encouraging college students to do the same.

  180. Walt says:

    Everyone just move along.

    2010 election DID NOT HAPPEN.

    Move along I say…

    ^^^^^^
    BTW,

    All these over 60 white Romney voters ought to have a serious sit down with their voting aged 18-35 year olds children that they are seriously suporting financially and tell them that if Obammer gets reelected, the family cash cow closes up.

  181. Spyder says:

    #158. Concur. I’ve been polled twice in the last 6 weeks. Both times I called myself “Independent” but “Conservative”. In previous elections, I had called myself “Republican”. I just can’t bring myself to do it.

  182. DW says:

    184 – yep, Obama gets re-elected, he is coming for our 401k accounts. He has to. There is no money anywhere else.

  183. Walt says:

    Mr. Vito,

    Since MD refuses to buy you the plastic tubing that you can use as intestines (remember MD accused you of being one of the 47%-ers who just take, take, take) I think you may be eligible for SS disability.

    You may have to make up a first and middle name though when you fill out the form.

    I would suggest just using one of the many SS #s that Obammer has used over time.

  184. Polaris says:

    #183 Not great news, but as you say in IA the Dems have pushed early voting hard.

    -Polaris

  185. RB says:

    162-Looks like McCain still vividly remembers 2008-good for him.

  186. Optimus Prime says:

    186

    Won’t matter. The 47% want it and ooo will let them have it.

  187. John says:

    If we’ve all caught on, thanks to the internet, to the crap that pollsters have tried to pull on us what are they going to do for the remaining six and half weeks?
    Do they expect us to roll over and play dead until November 6th?
    Heck, just in the last week or so there have been a number of articles coming from conservative journalists that also shines the light on this.

  188. Polaris says:

    I believe it was Jaycost that mentioned it this morning but it’s a thought worth repeating now that Michael as fretted about the IA early vote.

    Did anyone else notice how LATE the Dem convention was this year? I think it was the latest ever in modern political history. I have to wonder if that was part of the Dem game-plan. Hold the convention late so that the last parts of the bounce would still be there when the first early voting started.

    -Polaris

  189. Walt says:

    WV JOB situation

    August 2012 Update

    Job Losses Continue to Pile Up in August
    August marked the seventh straight month of job losses for West Virginia, as total nonfarm employment fell by 2,300 jobs.

    August was also the third straight month with job losses over 2,000,
    which hasn’t happened since 2009.

    Total nonfarm employment is now 750,700, which is 9,600 jobs
    below its pre-recession level in the state (Figure 1). The state’s unemployment rate rose to 7.5 percent,
    its highest level of 2012 (Table 1).

    http://www.wvpolicy.org/jobscount/downloads/JCaug2012.pdf

  190. Hoyde Hoyde Hoyde (Hovde) says:

    141.Waingro says:
    September 21, 2012 at 4:12 pm
    PPP Wisco Senate Poll:

    Baldwin: 49
    Thompson: 45

    Baldwin up 2 with Indies. And 50% disapproval for Thompson.

    D/R/R: 34/31/35

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_92112.pdf

    Dead Enders,
    if you want to get back at MD, just mention this “sure thing”!

  191. SusyQue says:

    Alert! False Narratives!

    No, Chick-fil-A did not “cave”

    By Michelle Malkin • September 21, 2012 10:49 AM
    When I first saw reports on Twitter that Chick-fil-A had caved to the tolerance mob, I despaired. Corporation after corporation has given in to the free speech-squelching agitators on the Left who demand political conformity.
    Turns out the information was coming from progressive activists trying to shape a false narrative.

  192. Walt says:

    WV usually TRAILS the rest of the nation in economic ups and downs.

    So what does this mean?

    Either WV is LEADING the economic collapse this time, or else the rest of the nation is plummeting as well, prior to WV.

  193. John says:

    This is good news…

    Over 1 million voter contacts in Colorado and Nevada:

    Colorado Republicans have made four times more phone calls and six times more knocks on the door than 2008

    Nevada Republicans have made four times more phone calls and twelve times more knocks on the door than 2008

    http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/21/voter-contact-exceeds-1-million-mark-nevada-and-colorado/

    Colorado has 9 electoral votes and Nevada has 6 ev’s.

  194. michael corleone says:

    Also – my contact on the R side of Capital Hill tell me the GOP establishment up there has pretty much thrown in the towel on the White House. My buddy can’t stand their pessimism, but there you go.

  195. Proud Obamacon says:

    #163 Polaris states :

    “[...] the polls are WRONG [...] It’s that simple.

    -Polaris”

    I’m getting a feeling of dejavu. Anyone else?

  196. DW says:

    197 – I fully expect CO and NV to flip. Those 15 EVs are insurance in case VA falters, which I do not expect to happen. If CO and NV flip, as well as VA, then the extra 15 could combine with NH to replace OH, should that falter. Obviously, getting OH is the easist path. But CO/NV gives Romney some options.

  197. Big Joe says:

    Kim,

    Thats an interesting hypothesis. In fact, I came up with something similar during the 2009/2010 timeframe. Many many conservatives left the GOP party and became Independants. This skewed the Indies rightward.. however I think they have mostly come back home.

    I don’t have data to back this up, but plenty of anecdotal evidence among people I know.

  198. Polaris says:

    #199 Only because you willfully ignore the details and the details matter….and your editing is frankly dishonest.

    I am NOT ignoring all the polls. I am stating that the polls that are using 2008 type demographic models are wrong. That’s hardly an earthshaking or wild position to take considering that Gallup has taken essentially the same position.

    I am basing my postion off of real survey information from reputable pollsters along with my own observations and guesses (like everyone else here).

    -Polaris

  199. Walt says:

    Anybody know anything about
    “My Reputation Discovery”?

    Supposedly a free service of AOL to find out if anyone is badmouthing you anywhere.

    They want my email password, but I won’t give it to them.

    Is this a legit thing?

  200. DW says:

    I suppose if NYT came out with a national poll that had a DRI of 76/4/20 and showed Obama leading 83/12, some trolls would come here to defend it and tell us we just need to trust the polls.

  201. Polaris says:

    #201 Before the 2010 mid-terms, there might have been somthing to Kim’s hypothesis except that other (admittedly local) elections should have made it unlikely even then. What Kim was suggesting is that 2008 was a “realignment” election and that a large group of GOP voters no longer would ID as GOP (going Indy).

    The problem is that if that were true, then you’d expect results (no matter who won) with consistantly Dem heavy DRIs and if the GOP candidate won it would be with a lot of Indy support. In 2010, if that model were true, given the same results, we should have seen something like a D+5 demographic and a huge Indy number against the Dems (FAR bigger than it actually was in 2010).

    We didn’t. Conclusion. Those GOP voters have come home (in self ID at least).

    -Polaris

  202. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    if the polling is wrong, why don’t republicans release fake red polls?

  203. Marv says:

    #198 michael corleone,

    I have a Democrat friend who confided to me that he and his friends fear that when Gallup goes to a likely voter screen it will show a Romney lead of 3 points. He’s afraid that the narrative will change then Obama and will be in trouble. They especially are concerned about the Drudge red headline that will be up the day that it happens.

  204. Walt says:

    Oct. 10 Senate debate in Wheeling is canceled

    A Wheeling debate between U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin and Republican challenger John Raese has been canceled.

    Raese spokesman Josh Sowards says the Oct. 10 event was called off because of scheduling conflicts.

    He says Raese will attend the other scheduled debate, set for Oct. 2 at Shepherd University in Shepherdstown. Shepherd’s master of business administration program is arranging that debate.

    West Virginia Public Radio’s Cecelia Mason will serve as the moderator, and journalists will pose questions on topics ranging from health care and energy to education and the environment.

  205. DW says:

    FLASH: ANN ROMNEY’S PLANE MAKES EMERGENCY LANDING

  206. John says:

    Ann Romney’s plane just made an emergency landing in Denver with the cabin full of smoke…
    Developing.

  207. Walt says:

    War on Coal Vote Friday

    West Virginia Second District Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito says she expects there to be widespread support Friday in the U.S. House when members vote on the Stop the War on Coal Act.

    Capito said in a Thursday afternoon conference call with reporters the bill packages together several different bills, “that we think will make a significant difference in job creation and our ability to use our own domestic resources.”

  208. DW says:

    205 – speaking of 2010, one of the things we kept harping on back then was that the GOP was going to break 60 seats that they were going to flip. We kept saying it all summer even though the trolls kept coming here to mock us, pointing out that the great Sabato, Rothenberg and Cook only saw anywhere from 20-30 flips. RollCall only saw four or five sure flips. Instead the GOP flipped 66 seats, while three expected, and temporary GOP seats flipped D. So I am not impressed by arguments that this POTUS race is over based on what the Washington pundits have to say, nor polls that are based on equal or better DRI for the dems than they got in 2008.

  209. Walt says:

    212

    Good point DW.

  210. GF says:

    212- Actually, one of those seats was not temporary, but had been in our hands for 18 years, that is to say, DE-AL.

    STAND UP, CHUCK!

  211. Walt says:

    PPP poll just release on whether when Mrs. Walter returns home from work whether she will be happy that I vacuumed, sad that I did not dust:

    32% Happy he vacuumed
    32% Upset that he did not dust
    36% Obama

    D+15 poll of single women with at least two kids.

  212. John says:

    Great read on what the press has going with Obama and why they cannot let him lose…

    “The Audacity Of These Dopes”

    http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/the_audacity_of_these_dopes.html

  213. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – INDIANA (YouGov)
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
    Mitt Romney (R) 44%
    my numbers: Romney/Obama: 56.9/40.2

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/indiana/

  214. Patk says:

    The old people turned on Ryan today, poor guy.

  215. Polaris says:

    #217 Your numbers are flipped on the Indiana poll. However, IN is not in play as your corrected numbers show.

    -Polaris

  216. DW says:

    214 – fair enough, I was just thinking of the LA and HI seats, and remembered the other was in a blue state, but my overall point is valid. It wasn’t a strongly republican district, we just happened to have Castle in there so CHUCK could finally STAND.

  217. middle of the roader says:

    RE: “Did anyone else notice how LATE the Dem convention was this year? I think it was the latest ever in modern political history. I have to wonder if that was part of the Dem game-plan. Hold the convention late so that the last parts of the bounce would still be there when the first early voting started.-Polaris”

    From what I recall, the reason the Conventions were so late this year was because of the Olympics. The GOP didn’t want to compete with them so they waited until it was over. It’s traditional that the incumbent party go after the challenger’s convention, so that dictated the late start for both. I think the GOP may have regretted that choice now. They should have held it before the Olympics.

  218. jason says:

    ” I’m getting a feeling of dejavu. Anyone else?”

    You wish. Not going to happen.

    Obama is not going to do as well as 2008. He is giving back several states.

    Let’s hope enough of them.

    I would bet on NC, IN, and FL. Increasingly optimistic about NH, CO, NV and IA.

    Looking for better numbers in VA and OH and WI, I think we will still see them.

  219. Waingro says:

    #217, TRASH IT.

  220. DW says:

    Ann Romney’s plane is smarter than the campaign manager…

    “The flight was en route from Omaha, Nebraska, where Mrs. Romney had attended fundraisers this afternoon to Los Angeles.”

    …the plane knew she would be better off in Denver holding a rally than flying to LA.

  221. Hunter says:

    Hey Proud…

    How was dinner last night?…

    I imagine someone either paid for you or you used food stamps…

    Mooch…

  222. jason says:

    “The old people turned on Ryan today, poor guy.”

    Nah, he boldly went into the lion’s den, the AARP, which is the WH’s right arm on Obamacare. And gave as good as he got.

    The AARP sold out seniors for political benefit.

    Ryan has balls.

  223. DW says:

    218 – oh please….the AARP has been a liberal org for at least a decade now. Its the AALRP. American Association of Liberal Retired Persons.

  224. Ice Cream Man says:

    203. Never ever give out your pAssword. They will use it to attempt to get onto other websites. Never trust online cod asking for personal UNCO ESP passwords, SSN, or DOb .

  225. John says:

    218 – And Jorge Ramos of Univision turned on Obama. Poor fellow.

  226. GF says:

    No worries, DW; I wasn’t trying to invalidate your point. I merely wanted CHUCK to havehis due.

    That we held onto IL-10 was miraculous; I fully expected Dold to lose.

  227. DW says:

    I have credit to GW Bush when he gave a forceful speech at the NAACP and boldly asked for their vote. Everyone knew he wasn’t going to get it, but it never hurts to ask. Kissing Oprah didn’t help Bush either. Come to think of it, never mind, the AA vote is worthless, no reason to ever pursue it.

  228. Polaris says:

    #227 Correct. It’s gotten so bad that a number of seniors have abandoned the AARP. Basically the AARP got into bed with Obama when he promised them the moon with Obamacare…and now they are looking over him the next morning without the beer-goggles, and he isn’t a pretty bed-mate.

    The senior vote will go Romney and very solidly Romney. Even McCain won the senior vote and 2012 will be no different.

    -Polaris

  229. DW says:

    yeah…IL_10 was a temp seat that we held…that was something.

  230. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    – And Jorge Ramos of Univision turned on Obama. Poor fellow.

    Comment by John

    He only “turned” on him because obammer didn’t push amnesty as much as he should have.

  231. jason says:

    BTW, there are several new alternatives to the AARP that are not supporting Obama’s agenda and haven’t sold out.

    American Seniors Association is one of them.

    http://www.americanseniors.org

  232. Polaris says:

    #231 You are on a roll DW. The AA vote is worthless and AA issues are worthless…for both parties.

    The Dem candidate will get 90%+ of the AA vote even if he’s caught on candid camera at a KKK rally.

    The GOP will get NO AA support even if he were the son of Martin Luther King himself.

    Until the AA voters get over themselves and realize there are TWO parties in this country, they will never be taken seriously politically by either. The Dems will pander to them on election day and do nothing for them otherwise, and the GOP will just ignore them.

    -Polaris

  233. jason says:

    217. That Yougov poll is reversed. Its Romney 50 Obama 44.

    Hope nobody jumped off a tall building.

    http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/09/21/indiana/

  234. Mr. Vito says:

    “Hope nobody jumped off a tall building.”

    I do that all the time… it tickles.

  235. Hunter says:

    PatK…

    How was Obama’s speech to the NAACP?….

  236. DW says:

    236 – that’s why I like the metaphor that they, politically, are just picking cotton for the Democrat Party. There are two parties, so they could be free, but they decide to stay enslaved.

    “The Dem candidate will get 90%+ of the AA vote even if he’s caught on candid camera at a KKK rally.”

    I appreciate the hyperbole, but there are rare times when it does go too far even for them, most recently William Jefferson in LA_02.

  237. Polaris says:

    #240 Well true…I guess there are limits…but they are very high.

    -Polaris

  238. Polaris says:

    #240 Mr ‘Cold Cash’ Jefferson. Good times…..

    -Polaris

  239. Pitchaboy says:

    Observations:
    1. When you see Obama winning Indiana by 6, it is time to dump all Yougov polls.
    2. Any poll showing D at 40 or more must be immediately trashed. Even at their peak in 2008 they were 38 percent
    3. These guys need clearly more than D plus 4 to get O close to 50.
    4. IRomney winning Indies in the majority of polls.
    5. This year the guy who wins indies wins. O approval with indies on an average is low to mid forties.

  240. Pitchaboy says:

    I checked and Romney leads in Indiana; presumably Ben had a senior moment in a frenzy of polls.

  241. jason says:

    ” Ohio woman unknowingly married father”

    Hey Walt, can you relate to this?

  242. DW says:

    Drudge added one more link to the Romney tax return story:

    Romney Releases 2011 Tax Returns; Paid $1.9 Million on $13.7 in Income…

    …donated $4,020,772 to charity

    Doubles rate of Obamas’ giving…

    Voluntarily paid more than required…

  243. Polaris says:

    #245 Let me guess: Her name was Electra.

    -Polaris

  244. Pitchaboy says:

    Paradoxically the more I see these stupid D plus zillion polls showing Obama under 50, the more enthused I get. And I hope it paradoxically gets the dems to snooze thinking they are really ahead.

  245. Ho-Dogg says:

    But Harry Reid said Mitt doesn’t pay taxes!!!

  246. Mr. Vito says:

    Word is out that Harry Reid is a liar.

  247. Polaris says:

    #250 :O Say it ain’t so!

    -Polaris

  248. DW says:

    someone above suggested that maybe the Dem convention was late to still have the bump going while early voting starts…could be, but most early voters are the die hard partisans. Nobody undecided or wobbly on who to vote for goes to the trouble to vote early.

  249. Polaris says:

    #252 I tend to agree, but I wouldn’t put it past the Dems to try to get every advantage they could get. Do you?

    -Polaris

  250. John says:

    Contrary. The AA vote is important. If enough black pastors and preachers can convince their flocks that President Obama doesn’t share some of their beliefs and have made things worse for them with regard to the unemployment situation and thus stay home on election day it will make all the difference in the world.
    A 1-2 percentage drop in support from AAs translates into 1-2 million and could effect cities like Cleveland (Ohio), Miami (Florida), etc…

  251. Pitchaboy says:

    There will be a 1 to 1.5 percent drop in AA vote.

  252. DW says:

    254 – as we pointed out above, it has to reach the William Jefferson level before the AAs bolt.

  253. Polaris says:

    #245 Your point is taken John but only in the negative sense. The AA vote matters for us because an AA vote is almost 100% sure to be a Dem vote, so if the voting population is 11% AA, you can be sure that all 11% will go to Obama.

    The problem is for the AA voters and AA issues themselves, they politically have zero clout. The Dems don’t have to do anything but give them empty platitudes every election, and the AA vote is guaranteed. The GOP can (and should) ignore them since nothing they can do would get the AA vote anyway.

    It’s essentially political slavery.

    -Polaris

  254. sir alberto says:

    Right on!

  255. Pitchaboy says:

    I don’t care about political slavery. If you are stupid enough to be monolithic in your voting patterns, you deserve to get what you asked for. I just want less of their votes in FL, VA and OH. They can be enthused in NY and CA.

  256. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    I could not imagine early voting. You cast your ballot, then you have to wait ANOTHER week or two for the results??!!
    Sorry, I want to be done with it in just one day. It’s bad enough in NY I will be waiting to get in @ 6:00 A.M., and then the polls stay open until 9:00 P.M.! That is a long day!!

  257. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    I just want less of their votes in FL, VA and OH. They can be enthused in NY and CA.

    Comment by Pitchaboy — September 21, 2012 @ 6:00 pm

    And NC.

  258. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    It’s bad enough in NY I will be waiting to get in @ 6:00 A.M., and then the polls stay open until 9:00 P.M.! That is a long day!!

    Comment by NYCmike (Bronxie) — September 21, 2012 @ 6:01 pm

    Why bother NY is solid blue anyway.

  259. DW says:

    I can say that locally here in Hampton Roads cities of Virginia there are MANY black baptist churches, and many are very conservative. Locally, the Obama position switch on gay marriage was a bombshell, but did it reach William Jefferson level? We will find out in November. I would tend to think that Obama gets the same % of AAs as 2008, but fewer will turn out.

  260. Polaris says:

    #263 Do not expect a meaningful number of AA voters to vote against Obama. In the AA community, staying home (or not voting for POTUS) is their way of voting against Obama.

    Just saying.

    -Polaris

  261. MD says:

    255 – that won’t make a difference at all.

    From earlier in the thread. This is where the Dems grass roots efforts help them. They know exactly which doors to knock and how to help the people they know who support them complete the absentee ballot. The unions play a role here. Imagine if a corporation did the same thing?

  262. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Few will fore-go the chance to vote for the” 1st black prez”.

  263. MD says:

    Just saw a clip of Romney at a NV rally. Was he anywhere else today?

  264. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Once the enemy has the registration rolls, they will stuff the ballot box with gravestones and recalcitrant AA’s.

    Prior to the advent of the new deal/welfare state, most AA’s were repubs.

  265. DW says:

    264 – that’s what I was saying..Obama gets the same % of AAs that he did in 2008. No more vote for Romney than voted for McCain. But hopefully fewer mark ballots at all.

  266. MD says:

    Thompson will win in WI. Not sure about Romney.

    Romney will take IN.

    This is now beyond absurd.

  267. Polaris says:

    #268 Actually it was the fact that LBJ pushed and got the Civil Rights and and made inroads with the AA community along with the GOP strategy (Southern Strategy) to appeal to dissaffected white southern voters.

    Honestly the GOP southern strategy was politically a resounding sucesss but it cost the GOP the AA vote and got it (unfairly I think) tagged with the ‘racist’ label which the Dems hammered home again and again. The AA voter tyically views any GOP candidate as racist KKK members. They might not say it, but the perception is clear.

    -Polaris

  268. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    “Why bother NY is solid blue anyway.”

    -I still have a House seat,and I have a Republican, albeit a greasy, could-be-convict kind of Republican representative. Plus, there will be local races.

  269. DW says:

    I just noticed that Dave W, in his excitement over two week old online registered voter polls from yougov, forgot to do a thread on the PurpleStrategies polls

  270. Polaris says:

    #272 Downticket races do matter.

    -Polaris

  271. DW says:

    and the national popular vote for POTUS does matter, to the extent that the national vote will be compared to the Electoral vote.

  272. MD says:

    They sure do. That is how a deep Ben h is built. Rubio was one of those. 4 years ago he was a no name.

  273. GA Voter says:

    Off topic. If you have a google mail account, you can sign up for alerts about job layoffs or hirings or just about any topic that has buzz words. Yesterday and today a total of 20 companies are laying off nationwide. Jobs? Still waiting……

  274. MD says:

    In states like NY and PA, success in local elections can help turn a state in the future. The D’s did that in PA. I was living in Landlsdowne when they took over the council in 95. First time in over a hundred years.

  275. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Actually it was the fact that LBJ pushed and got the Civil Rights and and made inroads with the AA community
    northstar

    If you check the history of the civil rights act, it was the GOP that broke the southern dem filibuster, and a greater % of repubs voted for it than did the dims.The AA’s were in the pocket of the dims long before the 64 act was passed.

  276. MD says:

    IP.

    Yep – biggest con job in history pulled off by the Dems. Unreal.

  277. AuH2ORepublican says:

    Extremely few New Orleans blacks voted for the Republican Joseph Cao over William Jefferson. Cao beat Jefferson only because the election was held on December 6 (Hurricane Gustav had pushed the primary to November), when most of the blacks who had turned out for Obama’s election stayed home. Fewer than 67,000 voters turned out in the general election, of which likely less than half were black (remember, the district’s black population had been decimated by Hurricane Katrina, with almost half its residents living temporarily in Baton Rouge, Houston and other cities), and Cao won with 49.6%. And Jefferson only made the general because he ran against 6 blacks and a Latina in the Dem primary, and then beat the Latina in the runoff.

    So not even getting caught with $90,000 in cash in a freezer was enough to convince black Democrats to vote for a Republican. I have hopes that that may change in the next few years, after Obama leaves office and a greater number of black Republicans rise in the congressional ranks. All the GOP needs is 25% of the black vote to become a permanent majority party.

  278. Polaris says:

    #279 Absolutely true. If it weren’t for the GOP, Civil Rights does not get passed. That’s why putting the ‘racist’ label on the GOP is grossly unfair…but it was LBJ that got the credit (and he made SURE the Dems and he got the credit) and that in politics is what matters.

    -Polaris

  279. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    All the GOP needs is 25% of the black vote to become a permanent majority party.

    Comment by AuH2ORepublican — September 21, 2012 @ 6:42 pm

    25% will never leave the welfare plantation,why would they?????

  280. jenny-romney is a mormon! says:

    Rich Lowry makes an excellent point regarding this idea that everybody should pay a minimum income tax. Conservatives like Mark Davis, Rush Limbaugh,and Laura Ingraham believe that everybody should pay income taxes even people who earn $10,000 a year. If Mitt is criticizing welfare queen, people will support him but if he’s advocating a minimum income tax on everyone then he’s toast.

  281. Walt says:

    So in the Nov. election on the ballot

    –CO has yes or no on legalize marijuana

    –MD, ME, MN, and WA have gay marriage.

    All are supposedly favor by about 53-55% except MN which is at 47%(?)

    What other issues are out there on the ballot for swing states, particularly?

    How will it impact the turnout for R or O?

  282. Polaris says:

    The shift started before, but it was 1964 (LBJ’s first election) that is considered to be the point where the AA voter became a monolithic Dem voter. Untiil then the AA vote was reachable by the GOP.

    I do agree that the shift started in 1932. Until then, an AA vote was almost a guaranteed GOP vote.

    -Polaris

  283. Monetarist says:

    Interesting… if you apply the 2008 electorate in Virginia to the Quinnipiac poll, Romney is winning.

    http://toplinetranslator.com/

  284. Polaris says:

    Colorado’s Mary-Jane prop will help increase liberal (Dem and left Indy) participation and thus help Obama. Gay Marriage has in general turned out more conservatives than liberals on balance and should help the GOP in those states, but in terms of POTUS, that will only matter in ME (specifically ME#1) or MAYBE Minn…but even that would require a monster Romney election day elsewhere.

    -Polaris

  285. RB says:

    The AA vote was 14% in 08 and ‘normally’ is 11% in typical elections. I think that they will be between 12.5-13.0. There will be some that don’t turn out, but if we are counting on 11%, that may be overly optimistic

  286. Monetarist says:

    Hi MD

    Hi Polaris – I heard there was a group in CO running ads attacking Obama for his crackdown on pot.

  287. Polaris says:

    #287 That just shows how far in left field Quinn is.

    -Polaris

  288. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Ironic that the GOP gave them their freedom, and then the dims reinstituted their plantation welfare mentality.

  289. MD says:

    Greatest con job ever.

  290. Marv says:

    Ray, Pitchaboy, anyone,

    What rolled on last night and what will roll off tonight in RAS and Gallup. Thanks.

  291. Bitterlaw says:

    Enough crying, damn it! It’s Friday – let’s all have a good time:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7HmzwI67ec

  292. RB says:

    I can also tell you anecdotally that the Aferican Americans that I work with watched all of the DNC and are very enthusiatic about Obama(They also are very proud of Obamacare.

    They were impressed with Condi and Marco on our side BTW.

  293. Eye Pee says:

    Blacks are destined to be on welfare. It’s just the way it is. They can’t swim, either.

  294. Polaris says:

    I think a fairly strong Obama day rolls off Ras tonight.

    -Polaris

  295. Big Joe says:

    #296 Marv, if I may interject .. only RAS and GALLUP know the true daily numbers, the rest of us are guessing.

    I tried this in 2008 for RAS. At first I thought I had numbers that made sense. Then every third day, I’d get an oddball .. that told me my numbers were never correct to begin with.

    If you get weird numbers every 3rd day, then you are off.

  296. GF says:

    Bitter, I had hoped for a KU video. :-(

    Hope your daughter (and you, for that matter) are feeling better. read about when catching up on the threads I missed.

    Hope you all have a nice weekend; I’m out.

  297. Polaris says:

    #302 Big Joe, we can make fairly good educated guesses though especially when we are told some things by the person (Scott Rasmussen) who DOES know the true numbers. This is why I say that a fairly strong Obama day is rolling off. How strong? Not completely sure.

    -Polaris

  298. Pitchaboy says:

    RAS: Rolled off O plus 4. Rolled on O plus 2. Last two days R plus 3
    Gallup: Rolled off O plus 1. Rolled on even.
    Marv, hope that helps.

  299. Polaris says:

    Based on Ras’ own commentary, we know that the day that will roll off tonight is about the same as the day that rolled off last night. About.

    -Polaris

  300. Bitterlaw says:

    Because I want everybody to have a good time, here’s one for SusyQue:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBZnpcslW5g

  301. Pitchaboy says:

    SUN: R plus8
    MON: O plus 3
    TUE: O plus 4(rolling off tonight)
    WE’D: R plus 5
    THUR: O plus 2

  302. Bitterlaw says:

    Polaris – You have posted 2700 comments since Tuesday. Relax. Enjoy a little groovy tune:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nU615FaODCg

  303. Polaris says:

    #310 You may be right but someone has to keep everyone from jumping off the ledge!

    -Polaris

  304. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    We’ll get 25% of the black vote when I am vice admiral of Neptune

  305. Bitterlaw says:

    Fr those who were kind enough to ask – my daughter is officially fine. Blood tests were normal.*

    *Mr. Vito – It’s really nice but you can stop putting on puppet shows. It’s freaking us out.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWEHj-yxTAw

  306. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Gold 281 Cao won because he was respected in the black community he was non white and Jefferson had become an embassassment even to the blacks

    Has Cao been white he never would have won regardless of the circumstances

  307. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Bitter

    #297 is dreadful!

  308. Big Joe says:

    #307- Yup we can all make educated guesses. Just wish RAS would provide some info instead of .. the days are roughly the same ..

    That really could mean anything. Could be two Obama days, two close days, two Romney days .. who really knows. But it is a fun exercise.

  309. Bitterlaw says:

    313.We’ll get 25% of the black vote when I am vice admiral of Neptune

    I wonder why that is? The last time I checked, they were Americans and had brains. Convince them why the GOP is better.

  310. bio mom says:

    302 I agree. I do not think Pitchaboy or that other guy (Ray?) know those numbers. But they mean well.

  311. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    But I’ll do my part, since Mr. Wissing has had his hands full the last several months!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4GtOdJtgL8

  312. Polaris says:

    #319 I’ve wondered too more than once, but there is a deeply ingrained hostility in pretty much any african american and african american household (even middle class ones) towards the GOP. I think it’s cultural and instinctive at this point. Obviously not everyone has it (see Dr Rice) but it does seem to be the overwhelming norm. Look at how Dr Cosby was treated by fellow AAs when he started talking honestly about race and the victim mentality.

    -Polaris

  313. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    From my son, and his violin! Cheers!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4ntkbeytAo

  314. IAmNotUsingAFakeScreenName says:

    Its a black thing

    It’ll probably be the same fifty years from now…

  315. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    #324 – if Obama wins u r right. If Romney wins, and the men and women (minorities, so-called) in the Republican ranks continue to get elected, hearts will change!!

  316. Emerica says:

    Rand will get a vote on foreign aid tonight.

  317. Polaris says:

    #325 I think that AA partisanship has completely hardened and changing that is a project of many cycles (decades) and/or something major happening to finally get through to the AA voter that the Dems are not on their side, ie the AA voter is being used.

    Unfortunately the way things are, the GOP doesn’t have and can’t really afford the resources to do it…and so the vicious cycle continues.

    -Polaris

  318. SusyQue says:

    #323…NTC Mike….It the kid with the violin really your son? If so, is your wife asian?

  319. PaCon says:

    When will Gallup be switching to a LV model?

  320. Polaris says:

    Gotta go. Dinnertime.

    Cya later.

    -Polaris

  321. SusyQue says:

    Romney Edges Obama In UNIVISION Viewers…

  322. 1890s Republican says:

    You folks are right about the Negro. They can never change. They will always be reliable Republican voters. It’s in their culture. It’s instinctual by now.

  323. 1890s Republican says:

    Don’t trust the Micks, either.

  324. RB says:

    Gallup usually switchs in early October to LV. That was true in 04 and 08. In 08 thier LV model actually favored the Dems with the increased youth and AA turnout. It will be interesting to see what happens this time.

  325. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Emerica/Bunu,

    Set the speech to “Gangnam Style”, and I’ll listen to it!

    SusyQue,
    Although I dated an Asian woman once, I fell hard for a beautiful Irish lass! The boys in that video just happen to be Asian and play the violin, I am trying to keep my son more hip than his father (moi!). Gangnam Style is HIP!

  326. Walt says:

    I can hardly wait until we get to post 3-6-9 !!!!

  327. PaCon says:

    I think the worst case scenario for us would be D+2. Republicans in 08 hated John McCain and were not excited to vote at all. Many liked his talk of change and reducing the debt. Obviously nothing has charged except the debt increasing. Republicans are fired up this election cycle and its the first presidential race the tea party will be participating in. I say it looks like 04 at even or R+1. Romney will keep his republican support in the low 90’s as Obama will keep democrat support in the low 90’s as well. Most polls have Romney winning independents so I’m predicting a small win for Romney, much like bush’s 04 coalition with a few states switching sides. (NM, NH, WI)

  328. Walt says:

    Which way will the tattooed vote go this year?

    Body peircing vote?

    If we spread the rumor that the Bloods are voting for Obama, will the Crips automatically rush to vote for Romney?

  329. Walt says:

    Gone over to check Facebook for a while.

    Somebody cover me.

    And call me when we get close to 3 6 9.

  330. RB says:

    I do have to say that one thing that is striking to me, is the democratic overconfidence at this point. Yes they are up in the polls in th Pres and many key Senate Races, but with 6 weeks to go this is confounding. If I were the dems I would be running like I was down by 4 points. Things can and do tend to happen and overconfidence or overreaching before people go to the electorate can backfire(See Wellstone Memorial) I get they are trying to dampen GOP enthusiasm, but to me it seems way to early to do that, and if they take a hit down the road will they be able to recover?

  331. Walt says:

    Zuckerman: Obama Campaign ‘Divisive and Dishonest’…

    Then Zuckerman dropped this one on us:

    The sun appears to rise in the East!!!

    Well I never…!!!

    Now off to Facebook…

  332. Robbie says:

    I’ve been away most of the day, but, more and more, I get the sense the race is really slipping away from Romney.

    Right now, the only good news is that Romney’s merely tied in Gallup. Considering what’s taken place the last four years, that’s pitiful.

    While I’m glad Romney’s campaign conceded they need to do more, I have my doubts they will carry though with their new efforts. They’ve been big on talk, but have rarely followed through.

    Truth be told, I don’t think Romney believes much of anything is going wrong. In an interview with 60 Minutes tonight, Romney acted as if everything in his campaign was going perfectly.

    I’m sorry, but the campaign is not running perfectly and it appears they have a tin ear. A perfect example was the decision to release Mitt’s tax returns tonight after the issue had died down. Why, why, why?

    While I have problems with many things Peggy Noonan says and does, I think her one big piece of advice today was smart. Romney should bring in James Baker to take charge of the campaign and get it on its feet before it’s too late.

  333. Optimus Prime says:

    Typical CNN

    Headline from Yahoo. Touts his 14.1% tax rate but completely fails to state his 25% charity donations.

  334. Optimus Prime says:

    343

    Are you regurgitating tripe?

    60 minutes was 5 days ago.

  335. jason says:

    Unfortunately blacks will continue to be taken for granted by Democrats. Too many have set the bar too low, voting in essence to continue to work in poor paying jobs, live in substandard housing in crime ridden neighborhoods, attend substandard schools, in exchange for a promise of a social net that rather than protect them actually imprisons them.

    They are getting a bad deal.

  336. jason says:

    ” Romney should bring in James Baker to take charge of the campaign and get it on its feet before it’s too late.”

    James Baker is older than the hills, in his 80’s.

    She meant “a” James Baker.

    Of course, as an Obama supporter, she has as much credibility as you do.

  337. ameister says:

    I am banking on the Romney tax returns being the October surprise. I don’t know what our side has.If these polls are as far off as they appear to be it looks like the Dems are setting up to try to steal it if the lose. IMHO

  338. jason says:

    “perfect example was the decision to release Mitt’s tax returns tonight after the issue had died down. Why, why, why?”

    Oh please, Harry Reid was getting headlines for saying Romney did not pay any taxes.

    I think you are the one with the tin ear.

  339. RB says:

    One point-Here’s why you do not go on 60 minutes and say your campaign is not working; It will all the media talks about for the next 3 days and you will not be able to get whatever message your were trying to get out, instead you will be talking about your 60 minutes comments. As to whether Romney recognizes he has to be more agressive is one thing, But never admit it on 60 minutes.

  340. jason says:

    I could have bet 1000 bucks that Wobbie Troll was going to bring up Peggy Noonan, who supported Obama in 2008.

    It’s so predictable.

  341. jason says:

    Yeah, 60 minutes is more to the left than Karl Marx.

    What you really want to do is give them a sound bite that says you agree with the MSM’s main talking point.

    Brilliant.

  342. Marv says:

    #309 Pitchaboy,

    If an O-5 night rolls off, leaving an R+5 and an O+2, then, depending on the sample tonight, Romney could recapture the lead in RAS. It appears to me that he could recaputure the lead if he breaks even tonight, maybe even with an O+1, or so.

    Is that about right?

  343. Hunter says:

    Yes, Robbie…

    The same person who endorsed Obama in 2008…

    Clearly, she doesn’t have an agenda…

    And neither do you, clearly….

  344. Marv says:

    jason,

    Have you been keeping track of the nightly samples on RAS and Gallup? If so, what do you have?

  345. Pitchaboy says:

    Romney goes in tonight plus 3 in RAS and plus 1 in Gallup. He has a great chance of grabbing the lead. Only caveat is Fri and Sat have not been his best days.

  346. jason says:

    ” Romney Edges Obama In UNIVISION Viewers…”

    Wobbie Troll would never mention this.

    Doesn’t fit the troll narrative.

    Obama blew it on Univision for one simple fact. He got a few difficult questions instead of the usual softball, wasn’t ready for it.

    But let’s talk about Romney’s taxes….

  347. SusyQue says:

    There are three levels of the black community.
    #1 are the elite blacks who are from very wealthy families and live in the north east. They are well educated and are professional people.
    #2 level are doing very well, they are homeowners, are professional teachers, lawyers, doctors, etc.
    #3 level are blacks who live in government subsidized communities. Usually one parent with many children from different husbands. Very high unemployment, generally do not graduate from high school. Often lawless; into gangs and dope.
    ……………………………………..
    So, 2/3rd of Blacks are doing well.

  348. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Robbie,

    Just come out and say it.

    “I told you so!”

    Do you feel better now?

  349. jason says:

    355. Sorry, I don’t analyze the poll internals, too many people here better at it.

    But if you need a troll bashed or someone to be an A-hole let me know.

    I also mix a dammed good dirty martini.

  350. Pitchaboy says:

    While I am convinced that Romney is getting bad advice and blowing a real chance to drag down Os foreign policy numbers, he should not take advice from someone who endorsed Obama in 2008(Peggy Noonan)

  351. Marv says:

    #356 Pitchaboy,

    So, RAS is R+3 with Wed and Thurs on there. If it is exactly even tonight. What will RAS show tomorrow? I’m trying to pin down how to factor your numbers.

    I presume that it’s the same with Gallup, if Romney has a +1 lead over the last six days, then and even night could get him the lead, depending on the decimal points.

  352. Marv says:

    #360 jason,

    Thanks, but I prefer beer and red wine. The house red by the glass is fine, I really don’t care.

  353. jason says:

    Or Wobbie Troll who spent a year bashing him and drove himself into exile when he won the nomination.

    In fact, it’s time to tell it like it is.

    If Wobbie is not a troll, he is the mother of all deadenders.

  354. SusyQue says:

    #336…NYCmike… “I fell hard for a beautiful Irish lass!” That is understandable!

  355. jason says:

    House red?

    Gag me with a spoon. It could be merlot.

  356. Pitchaboy says:

    Marv, if they are even today, Romney will be plus 3 tomorrow. Instead of providing raw totals, I average them out before I report here. If R has a plus 1 night today, he will be plus 4. Hope this is helpful. You need that dirty martini that Jason makes. We will drag our man across the finish line. The alternative is unthinkable

  357. Greymarch says:

    I know that Dick Morris a bit of a hack, but his explanation of why most of the current polls slightly favor Obama is spot-on:

    http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-state-romney-vote/

    If Obama really does have a significant lead, Obama would be in NC and IN, as would Romney. If Obama had a significant lead, Obama wouldn’t be in WI tomorrow. If Obama had a significant lead, Romney wouldn’t be in NV (Obama won NV by 12 in 2008.)

    This election is close. If I had to bet my house, I would take Obama by +2 right now, but that’s such a small lead. One or two good news-cycle days by Romney makes it a tied-race. That’s how close it is right now.

    @Greymarch (on twitter)

  358. PaCon says:

    The way I see it is O won Florida and Ohio by pretty small margins in 08. Now that the electorate is much more republican than in 08, how could Romney not win both states. Obama has only made enemies over the past 4 years, no way he picks up votes in any demographic. Not happening

  359. Yolanda says:

    Well, it’s over, folks.

    Dick Morris says that the polls are understating Romney’s support.

    That surely means they are OVERstating Romney’s support.

    At this point, Romney carries all the McCain states, minus MO and AZ. And that’s it.

    Sigh.

  360. Pitchaboy says:

    #368: historically, incumbents below 50 in Gallup end up losing and getting less than the number they have in mid September. Reason is that challengers have on average gotten 3.5 points in last six weeks(Jay Cost). Far from over, the fun has just begun.

  361. Todd McCain says:

    370. HAHAHA.

  362. Pitchaboy says:

    1. Make note that except in couple of polls, even with D plus 8, he does not make 50.
    2. If he was winning by 5 to 6 as done of these polls suggest, he would be in IN and NC.

  363. Scooter Boy says:

    Adrian Gray-” This is kind of impressive…Bush/cheney of 04 was making 45k contacts a week at this point…RR 12 just hit 1 million.”

  364. Yolanda says:

    In all seriousness, folks, I think what’s tripping up a lot of pollsters is the cell-only thing. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of pollsters are just overestimating the proportion of households that are cell only, and thus oversampling Democrats.

    That makes sense to me a lot more than some massive conspiracy between the polling firms and Obama campaign. I just find it hard to believe that so many firms would throw out professionalism, all at the same time, just to goose the numbers for Obama, even if He is truly their Chosen One.

  365. Yolanda says:

    And can we laugh at the inanity of InTrade for a few moments? Am I seriously supposed to believe that Obama has a better chance of winning than Claire McCaskill?!

  366. Walt says:

    NOOOOOO!!

    Nobody covered me and nobody called that we were getting close to 3 6 9.

    You know how it is once you go to Facebook, It is HARD to find the escape door.

    This is what I had for 3 6 9–great, funny, enlightening and entertaining video.

    Link at the end of the video takes you to the WHOLE ENTIRE RESULTS

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm1KOBMg1Y8&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  367. Pitchaboy says:

    1. What is tripping up pollsters is poor response rate. Reportedly only 1 in 9 people polled are responding. Therefore pollsters are not quite reading the electorate and therefore using 2008 models.
    2. Consider this 09-20-2008 was Obama 50 and McCain 45. But for a couple days on the bump, he is not able to get to 50.

  368. jason says:

    While Wobbie searches for articles to skewer Romney, here is an alternate view from Karl Rove.

    Political strategist Karl Rove Wednesday said recent polls show President Barack Obama in “desperate shape” in some key states he carried in 2008 and urged Republicans not to be discouraged by polls suggesting Mitt Romney has been wounded too severely by campaign missteps to recover.

    “The swing state poll shows the president in desperate shape in territory he carried with ease in 2008,” Rove said told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto Wednesday evening, referring to a recent USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama up by 48 percent to 46 percent over Romney.

    Rove, a Fox News contributor and the founder of the Republican super PAC Crossroad GPS, said a closer look at the poll, however, indicates trouble ahead for the president in many of the 11 key battleground states when compared to a similar poll from the 2008 presidential race.

    Rove noted that Obama was ahead of Sen. John McCain then with 55 percent of likely voters, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in mid-September of that campaign.

    “So Mitt Romney is already running ahead of the pace of John McCain. And President Obama is running . . . over six points behind where he did in these states in 2008,” Rove told Cavuto.

  369. DW says:

    Best poll of the day was Romney ahead in FL according to PS.

  370. Pitchaboy says:

    If you forget the top line and go through the internals, Mitt is running atleast five points better than McCain with a clear path upwards given upcoming debates and crumbling foreign policy.

  371. Walt says:

    Pitch,

    I was wondering about that as well.

    When I did phone bank calling in 2004 and 2008 far more people were willing to answer phone survey questions as compared to my experience when I worked the phones last week at party hdqtrs.

    Just anecdotal…

  372. jason says:

    According to a poll by Kimball Political Consulting, Massachusetts voters believe that Scott Brown won his debate last night with Elizabeth Warren. 50 percent of likely voters who watched the debate said that Brown won, compared to 40 percent for Warren. Six percent thought the debate was a tie and 4 percent were undecided. The poll also found that 55 percent of likely voters watched the debate.

  373. Walt says:

    You guys REALLY need to watch that video at #377.

    There are several twists later on in the video that is WELL worth your taking the time to watch.

    Interview of Obama voters during the 2008 election and their knowledge (or lack of knowledge) of what is going on.

  374. jason says:

    Kimball is an R firm

    However their last poll had Brown only up 1, 46-45, so they are hardly a PPP.

  375. Pitchaboy says:

    Scott Brown was terrific. I was perhaps the first guy here to predict his victory in 2010 but I have gotten a bit upset with him. I guess for a R to win in that crazy state you have to be independent. He was terrific. When he was told that he is waging a war against women, he answered he has been fighting for them since he was six(standing up to abusive stepdad for his mom). That set the tone for rest of debate.

  376. Robbie says:

    60 minutes was 5 days ago.

    Comment by Optimus Prime — September 21, 2012 @ 8:18 pm

    Romney filmed a segment today for 60 Minutes that will appear on Sunday.

  377. Robbie says:

    James Baker is older than the hills, in his 80?s.

    She meant “a” James Baker.

    Of course, as an Obama supporter, she has as much credibility as you do.

    Comment by jason — September 21, 2012 @ 8:22 pm

    I know she said “a” James Baker type, but I think he’d be perfect for the role.

  378. jason says:

    Senator Zero

    Excellent…watch the ad….

    http://www.senatorzero.com/

  379. Robbie says:

    351.I could have bet 1000 bucks that Wobbie Troll was going to bring up Peggy Noonan, who supported Obama in 2008.

    It’s so predictable.

    Comment by jason — September 21, 2012 @ 8:25 pm

    And I could have bet a 1000 bucks you’d call anyone who doesn’t like the way things are going with the Romney campaign a troll.

    You win and I win.

  380. Walt says:

    Zogby Poll

    512 Obama Voters
    11/13/08-11/15/08
    MOE +/- 4.4 points

    97.1% High School Graduate or higher, 55% College Graduates

    Results to 12 simple Multiple Choice Questions

    57.4% could NOT correctly say which party controls congress (50/50 shot just by guessing)

    71.8% could NOT correctly say Joe Biden quit a previous campaign because of plagiarism (25% chance by guessing)

    82.6% could NOT correctly say that Barack Obama won his first election by getting opponents kicked off the ballot (25% chance by guessing)

    88.4% could NOT correctly say that Obama said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket (25% chance by guessing)

    56.1% could NOT correctly say Obama started his political career at the home of two former members of the Weather Underground (25% chance by guessing).

    And yet…..

    Only 13.7% FAILED to identify Sarah Palin as the person on which their party spent $150,000 in clothes

    Only 6.2% failed to identify Palin as the one with a pregnant teenage daughter

    And 86.9 % thought that Palin said that she could see Russia from her “house,” even though that was Tina Fey who said that!!

    Only 2.4% got at least 11 correct.

    Only .5% got all of them correct. (And we “gave” one answer that was technically not Palin, but actually Tina Fey)

  381. Annie says:

    My oldest son and his girlfriend (in Boston for grad school) have registered to vote there, just so they can vote for Brown. They say the ads for Warren on the tube are never-ending and really boring.

  382. jason says:

    ” but I think he’d be perfect for the role.”

    Ok I will call the nursing home to see if they can release him to run Romney’s campaign…..

    Actually, in Bush vs Gore, Gore did what Wobbie suggests.

    While Bush assigned Baker to represent him, Gore went with old fossil Warren Christopher who was outclassed by Baker.

    Baker did a great job for Bush, but his time has passed.

  383. jason says:

    ” And I could have bet a 1000 bucks you’d call anyone who doesn’t like the way things are going with the Romney campaign a troll.”

    Nope. There are a bunch of pessimists here that are not trolls.

    Pay up, send Romney a check for a grand.

    Thanks for playing.

  384. Robbie says:

    Jason

    I see Baker’s role just as the one he played in the Bush vs Gore fiasco. He came in, organzied the troops, and delegated authority. He may be 82, but he could do this for 45 days.

    I don’t think it’s fair to compare Baker to Christopher. Christopher was a genial man who didn’t really believe in Gore’s attempts to get a recount. As the movie “Recount” showed, Baker was bare knuckled, street fighter.

    I totally understand Baker’s not going to work for Romney, but he’s just the person who could come in and settle down the campaign. Right now, that’s what the campaign needs.

    Stories suggest there are competing spears of interest in the campaign. Stevens operates on his own while the Rhoades (the campaign manager) has no idea what he’s doing. Any even when a decision is made, Ann Romney and the boys still can tinker or overrule it.

    A well oiled campaign will make the candidate better almost automatically.

  385. Robbie says:

    Nope. There are a bunch of pessimists here that are not trolls.

    Pay up, send Romney a check for a grand.

    Thanks for playing.

    Comment by jason — September 21, 2012 @ 9:29 pm

    As the evidence has shown, I’ve been a realist about Romney’s campaign since early July.

  386. jason says:

    ” As the evidence has shown, I’ve been a realist about Romney’s campaign since early July.

    The evidence shows you are an Obama supporter and a troll.

    But keep deluding yourself that anybody actually believes you have Romney’s interests at heart.

  387. jason says:

    ” I don’t think it’s fair to compare Baker to Christopher”

    You are an idiot.

    ” While Bush assigned Baker to represent him, Gore went with old fossil Warren Christopher who was outclassed by Baker.”

    I am not comparing Baker to Christopher, I said he ate Christopher’s lunch.

    I am saying that Baker NOW is too old for this role.

  388. janz says:

    Who needs elections when we have the MSM?

    The election is over, and Mitt Romney lost. He’s toast; his goose is cooked; put a fork in him he’s done; he’s yesterday’s news. Disagree? That’s too bad. The American media have made up their minds. And on this they are certain: Barack Obama is a lock for reelection. They may not be sure when Romney lost exactly—was it his trip to England, Israel, and Poland? Was it the Clint Eastwood speech at the RNC? Was it Romney’s response to the attacks on our embassies in Benghazi and Cairo? Was it his leaked remarks on government dependency? The exact date doesn’t matter. What matters is that the chorus has spoken. The politburo has decided. A consensus has been reached. Romney will lose, and the only question is by how much. The voters might as well stay at home.

    Well worth reading the entire article. It brings up how the shoe being on the other foot, with an R incumbent, how identical economic and violence in the ME would be treated by the press. It’s comical if it weren’t so sad.

  389. W.PA Observer says:

    Good question on turnout I’ve been thinking over-

    In the 2010 midterms, overall national turnout was 41% of the eligible population for an electorate of dead even.

    In 2008, overall turnout was 61.6% of eligible population. It was D + 6 or 7 or so.

    In 2004, overall turnout was 60.1 % of the population. It was R + 1 or so.

    So, taking things from 2010, (conservatively, as GOP registration as increased relative to the Dems since then, particularly in some battleground states) to match the 2008 turnout (if 2012 turnout is 61 % or so, maybe less). It would take the 1/3rd of the VEP that didn’t show up in 2010 but does in 2012 to be D + 15 to D + 21 to get anywhere near the 2008 numbers. Does that seem very likely?

  390. Ac1 says:

    Akin now admits he has changed his position on earmarks in order to get a super pac to pay for some ads. I have to vote for this guy. I truly hate him.

  391. Pitchaboy says:

    Good night folks. May the Pollfairy bring you sweet dreams.

  392. Pollfairy says:

    Misssster Veeeeeeeeetooooooooooo…..

  393. Pollfairy says:

    Misssster Veeeeeeeeetooooooooooo…..

  394. Mr.Vito says:

    What, bee-yatch… im sleeping?

  395. Pollfairy says:

    Wassup (Wardrobe, Assorted Socks, Suspenders, and Undergarment Polling)

    National

    Romney: 51
    Obama: 45

  396. Mr.Vito says:

    Mmmmmmmmm… that’s nice…

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  397. Pollfairy says:

    Misssssster Biiiiiiiiitter…

  398. Pollfairy says:

    Misssssster Biiiiiiiiitter…

  399. Yolanda says:

    Btw, I can confirm that the Romney campaign is making GOTV calls to folks who voted in the Republican primary here in MI (where we don’t have partisan registration).

    My colleague (who was one of the Dems who voted Santorum just to mess things up) also noted that the call began with a Hebrew greeting (he is Jewish) and called the level of targeting “impressive.”

    And I should add that this is someone who knows *a lot* about presidential and congressional election politics. (Although I shouldn’t perhaps add that he said he thought the election was “slipping away” from Romney.)

  400. Pollfairy says:

    emmmmmmmmmmmmm deeeeeeeeeeee…

  401. Pollfairy says:

    emmmmmmmmmmmmm deeeeeeeeeeee…

  402. Pollfairy says:

    emmmmm efffff jeeeeeeeeee…..

  403. Bitterlaw says:

    GFY, Pollfairy. Polaris gets off on this crap. Whisper in his ear.

  404. Pollfairy says:

    emmmmmm effffff jeeeeeeee…

  405. Bitterlaw says:

    Pollfairy – Stay away from IP. He hates fairies. He’s in serious denial.

  406. Patk says:

    I suppose caller ID makes an impact for polling responses. I never answer any calls that I don’t recognize these days. But I suppose that might cut equally into both sides. I don’t know.

  407. Ac1 says:

    Todd Akin is a horrible human being and a terrible person. He makes me sick. I hope he burns in Hell forever. I hope he never makes another dime and lives out his days in a homeless shelter in North StLouis..

  408. SusyQue says:

    #421…Ad’s probably checking out a gal to date.

  409. janz says:

    #412 Yolanda

    That term of “slipping away” from Romney seems to be frequently used these days.

  410. ssq says:

    423…That is a terrible thing to say about anyone.
    Take what you said back, because what you have spoken can come upon you.

  411. Redneckman says:

    #401, Great post, I think it is unlikely, but I think we need to nail it down to the 9 or so battleground states to have the best analysis. i.e., how energized was ohio, florida, virginia, etc, with senate and competitive house races.

  412. Ac1 says:

    426

    in response to your post, I hearby multiply what I said by 10.

  413. rdelbov says:

    I feel pretty good tonight about Romney’s chances.

    ARG in a national sample had Obama up +2 in a 6D (40D-34R) sample with Romney up 7 among indies. A 36-33-31 sample would have Romney up 2.

    RAS and Gallup have the race effectively tied. RAS polled extensively to determine an LV model. Gallup is the only major pollster, that I know of, that does not hardcode or set a specific standard for Party ID. So their polls comfort me. PPP, PEW and other liberal/media/college pollsters clearly poll with certain party ID numbers in mind.

    So why are so many state polls still blue? Pollsters refuse to move state polls 3 to 5% off 2008 D/R/I numbers. We had folks here wonder if a PA (with a 4% shift in D/R/I 2008)poll was right. Yet that is what you have to believe. If nationally we see a shift from +8D (2008) to +2D for 2012 then just about every state needs to shift 6% or so.

    So if PA was 44D-37R in 2008 it needs to shift to 42D-39R for just a 4% shift. Most state polls in 2012 have been +10 or +11D which is actually a 3 or 4% shift to the D side.

    I that’s all folks.

  414. sir alberto says:

    James Baker, the way he cam in and handled that recount fiasco, was a phukkking stud. His polished demeanor vs. Dsailey’s fat face pretty much sums up the difference between the parties. Also, Republican women are way better looking. Example: my hot as helllll wife.

  415. Ac1 says:

    Todd Akin is dumber than the dumbest person you can think of.

  416. janz says:

    #429 Thanks rdel.

  417. Waingro says:

    #423, post of the week.

  418. Scooter Boy says:

    I wouldn’t fret about some of these state polls at this point. State polls can change rather quickly. Adrian Gray tweeted that at this time in 2004 NM had dropped from a +4 to a -2 in a week for Bush/Cheney.

  419. Walt says:

    Female Secretary of States (whether they happen to be in R or D administrations) have never been as effective as male SOS.

    i think part of this is cultural. Many parts of the world do not hold women in equal regard to men. Hence, the negotiations, etc. do not go as well.

    I also think part of this is differences between the sexes. Can you imagine if a female was chosen SOS instead of George Marshall? Could a “she” SOS have been suited enough to handle the job of SOS at that time as well as Marshall?

    Could a female have been as equally as sucessful as Henry Kissinger back at that time in History?

    Do you agree that many other nations look down on women and hold them in distain and consider them NOT their equal and that would be negative in how they interact with a female SOS?

  420. Walt says:

    Madeliene Albright, Condi Rice, Hillary Clinton–IMO none were very successful in the conduct of foreign policy.

  421. Repeal the 19th amendment says:

    Not only can’t women be SOS, they shouldn’t even vote!!! They ruin everything. If only men voted, we’d have Republican presidents for the last 80 years and our Republic would be thriving!

  422. Scooter Boy says:

    Adrian Gray- ” On 9-21-04…incumbent prez had CO +5, FL +2, IA +3, OH +8, and WI +1 (note VA wasn’t competitive at the time)”.

  423. Walt says:

    Screw this…Can’t even get a good fight sarted.

    I’m going over to facebook.

  424. Walt says:

    Parting joke:

    Did you hear what the mermaid was wearing when she came out of the water to sit on the rock?

    An algae bra.

  425. AC1 says:

    Walt I am glad you are smarter than Todd Akin.

  426. Marv says:

    Why all they hate here for Todd Akin? That’s the way they talk over at KOS or on the MSNBC blogs. I think that we should confine our attacks to Obama and not be distracted by anything else. We certainly shouldn’t be attacking one of our own candidates this late in the campaign, it’s too late, he’s not dropping out.

  427. Marv says:

    RAS and Gallup tomorrow. I say a tie, or Romney +1, in RAS and Romney finally ekes out a 1 pointn lead in Gallup.

    Anyone else with a guess?

  428. Polaris says:

    Back from dinner and a movie.

    The question of cell phones is an interesting one in polling. I remember Zogby as early as 2000 and definately in 2004 like to claim that there was this army of cell phone users that all the traditional pollsters were missing that “would shock the world”.

    There was only one problem with that. It didn’t happen. The non-response or missed voter bias in the polls was republican if anything at least in 2004. I also note that in 2008 those that used a lot of cell phone votes overestimate Obama’s win and often did it badly.

    So there is something to the idea that the cell phone is causing this oversampling of Dems…but I don’t buy it. Not completely. Pollsters KNOW that they consistantly undersample republican votes. They even know why. Consider the NJ elections. Talk about pollsters understating GOP support….if the pollsters (esp live interviewer pollsters) were right, it would have been Gov Corzine.

    I also think it’s very easy (and so does MacInturf, Romney’s pollster…see NRO: Campaign Spot from this morning) to goose your sample if you use cell phones to artifically inflate Dem participation.

    As for conspiracy, I don’t find it hard to believe at all. WE already KNOW that the DOJ is suing gallup after Obama complained about Gallup’s polling and Gallup wouldn’t change their model. We already KNOW that the MSM dominates the political polling market. Is it really so hard to believe that pollsters give polls that thier clients want to hear (so they get hired again)? I don’t. I see this sort of thing every day.

    What I think is that the MSM pollsters are using the cell phone vote which they KNOW skews things Democratic in an effort to get what their clients in the MSM want but seem “fair”. I also think that cell phone (only) voters tend to be younger, more liberal, and much less likely to vote than those that have landlines.

    -Polaris

  429. Walt says:

    Albright, Rice, H.R. Clinton.

    All sucked.

    Actually, I think Bill Clinton reportedly said Hilary didn’t, but Monica sure did.

  430. Polaris says:

    #442 Akin’s stupidity and pride have cost the GOP what should be an easy pickup in the Senate. That’s reason enough to hate him.

    -Polaris

  431. Walt says:

    On second thought, I think I whould not have typed that.
    I apologize. Sorry…

  432. Polaris says:

    #442 To continue, I don’t care. If Akin cared about his party, he would have dropped out. I don’t see what the GOP should care about him. It’s not like he’s going to win.

    -Polaris

  433. Greymarch says:

    Wow. After reading this, feeling vindicated in my skepticism of Dem-heavy polls. Spread this around:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/327982/what-john-mclaughlin-sees-polls-right-now#

  434. Polaris says:

    #449 I believe I linked to that earlier today, but it’s a good read. What a lot of the MSM polls are doing with their sampling techniques is criminal…or it should be.

    -Polaris

  435. Marv says:

    Polaris,

    1. Check #443
    2. What movie did you see?

  436. Polaris says:

    I saw Judge Dredd for some good wholesome mindless violence. As for my guesses, I still think Gallup will be tied, and I got burned this morning but I will still guess Romney +1 in Ras.

    -Polaris

  437. Ac1 says:

    Marv i have to live with HER for 6 more years because of him. I also have to vote for this idiot Akin in 7 weeks. I blow off steam here but don,t say this stuff to others.

  438. Eric says:

    Quoting individual polls is probably futile. Everyone, including myself was wrong on this site in 2008. Nate Silver was spot on the money. To him it’s all math and statististics and he doesn’t let party affiliation or ideology get in the way. I’d put my money on what Nate says.

  439. Marv says:

    Polaris,

    Pitchaboy has an O+5 night rolling off, leaving an R+5, an O+2, plus whatever happens tonight. A 1 point Romney is quite possible. As for Gallup, I think there’s a real shot to nudge Romney into the lead.

  440. Marv says:

    #453 Ac1

    Ok, no sweat. What’s your guess on RAS and Gallup tomorrow?

  441. Travis says:

    Polaris

    Does it seem like there are more pollsters than in 2008? I have a theory that the Regime has banked a healthy portion of its strategy in flooding the media with depression/AstroTurf polls.

    Thoughts?

  442. Polaris says:

    #454 Are you serious? Have you read 538?

    Nate is more partisan than pretty much all the rest of us put together. He called ONE…count it ONE election right and it wasn’t exactly rocket science to do it since in the first time in living memory (since 1980 anyway) there really was a D+7 electorate like the press had claimed for years.

    Read Nate’s commentary. Read his ‘justifications’ as he removed McCain’s Convenion bump. Read his hemming and hawing before….at the VERY LAST MINUTE actually yes predicted the dems would lose the house.

    No, Nate is a partisan hack….who btw is now revealed to have had Obama’s Internal polling numbers in 2008 which *literally* makes him an Obama hack and a dishonest one.

    He had better info than any other public prognosticator and refused to come clean. I have no respect for Nate Silver and neither should you. It is far from just ‘numbers’ to him. One read of any of his articles proves it.

    -Polaris

  443. Polaris says:

    #457 Not only do there seem to be more pollsters but they all suddenly came out of the woodwork right at the height of Obama’s bounce. I won’t say for a fact that Obama is astroturfing the polls, but it’s a distinct possibility. Certainly it’s clear that Obama/Dems are putting intense pressure on the pollsters to use Dem friendly 2008 style turnout models.

    -Polaris

  444. Polaris says:

    #454 Do you know who else was right on the Money in 2008?

    Rasmussen.

    He was also right on the money in 2004 as well.

    -Polaris

  445. W.PA Observer says:

    454- Silver does let ideology get in the way until it’s unavoidable (ala 2010- he was late to the game in picking up the wave and hedging till the end). The fact that info has come out that in 2008 he was directly given O internals shatters his credibility with me- it’s easy to confirm your opinions on polls when you’re receiving the high quality internals of a campaign and make no note of it. Perhaps he’s receiving them again, perhaps they’re giving him the most favorably concocted set, maybe he isn’t, who knows? But Silver is far more than numbers- sabermetrics and politics don’t interact as well.

  446. lisab says:

    nihil est incertius vulgo, nihil obscurius voluntate hominum, nihil fallacius ratione tota comitiorum.

  447. Marv says:

    #462 lisab,

    Ok, I’ll bite if no one else will.

  448. Travis says:

    Polaris

    When does Gallup (maybe other pollsters) switch to LV polls? I’ve seen you refer to Gallup being late this time around.

  449. Polaris says:

    there is nothing more uncertain than the common people, nothing more obscure man’s will, nothing more treacherous than the whole system of elections

    #462 translated

    -Polaris

  450. Polaris says:

    #464 *I* think Gallup is late. Gallup changes to LVs in October. You really should change to LVs within 60days of an election and/or after both conventions. That’s close enough to get a good picture of who’s really voting.

    -Polaris

  451. Marv says:

    #465 Polaris,

    I’m with the Romans on that one.

  452. AC1 says:

    R plus one in gallup and down 1 in RAS.

  453. Marv says:

    #468 AC1,

    A strong Obama night rolls off RAS tonight.

  454. Travis says:

    In 2008 Jim Geraghty at NRO wrote that what the Obama Campaign feared was a headline McCain pulls even. Four years later:

    Gallup: Even.

    Time for Axelrod to give Gallup another call

  455. Marv says:

    Travis,

    Sooner or later, Drudge will have red banner headlines showing Romney leads in both Gallup and RAS…….heck, maybe even tomorrow. You heard it here first.

  456. Polaris says:

    #470 That may be why we are being inundated with this slew of heavily Dem weighted national polls. They (and the MSM) want the American poeple to forget that Gallup has it tied.

    -Polaris

  457. Polaris says:

    #470 Holden to Gallup and Rasmussen:

    “Nice polling companies you have their. Pity if something were to happen to them….”

    -Polaris

  458. Travis says:

    I hope so Marv. As I’ve learned from you, Polaris and others here over the years, the lagging state polls showing that same trend will be decisive.

    I will then look forward to the news stories about Obama being “a great finisher” and thriving on “coming from behind.”

  459. Marv says:

    Polaris,

    Perhaps Romney’s internal polls show that he’s doing just fine. He certainly seems relaxed on the stump and in interviews. He was particularly good at the Univision event yesterday.

  460. Travis says:

    472. That is what I’m thinking they have to “out shout” Gallup and Rasmussen with many new polling outfits that the media never qualifies as being left leaning but simply accept at face value.

    Of course none of these firms ever come out with a Romney lead and all magically have at least a D+ 6 sample scheme.

  461. Travis says:

    475. You may be on to something Marv. I doubt the campaign would have allowed Ann Romney to attack the Kristols, Noonans, etc., if they felt they were in a strong position, but maybe I’m wrong. I doubt it though.

  462. Travis says:

    Weren’t.

  463. Polaris says:

    #475 Romney doesn’t behave or campaign like he’s losing. That’s true. McCain DID behave that way and it drove Gov Palin nuts as I remember (turns out McCain had good reason to behave that way…)

    -Polaris

  464. Marv says:

    Travis,

    The problem is that Obama is a front-runner who didn’t think that he would be behind during this campaign. He probably actually knows that he’s in trouble, he sees his own internals.

  465. Travis says:

    479. Exactly. I was thinking tonight watching Hannity interview McCain on the trail (he was hanging out with Lindsay Graham too) an it seemed that he was just content to be getting attention and screwing around with Lindsay. I knew the he didn’t care to win but was just glad to be the GOP nominee.

  466. Travis says:

    480. Good point. From what I saw it didn’t look like he saw that pointed Univision interview coming either. Bet we don’t see to many more of those interviews from him.

  467. dave says:

    i don’t know why i bother reading this drivel except that it is entertaining for me. everything on RCP IS BLUE and yet 90% of yu are sure its all manipulation and trickery. I’ll eat 100 crows if it doesn’t pan out, but man, you all are sooo removed from reality. Even Purple Strats is killing yu all.

  468. Polaris says:

    #483 I hope you like crow.

    -Polaris

  469. Marv says:

    #483 dave,

    RAS and Gallup probably turn red tomorrow. If not then, they will eventually.

  470. Polaris says:

    Seriously Dave, the only way RCP is right is if the electorate is just like it was in 2008.

    Otherwise, Obama is in deep ka-ka,and frankly I think Obama knows it. He gets the true polls too.

    -Polaris

  471. dave says:

    as long as its cooked w/ a french technique.

  472. Marv says:

    Good night folks.

    Polaris, take over.

  473. Travis says:

    487. French – of course.

  474. dave says:

    yu guys say that ras and gallup are gonna turn red everynite. no? and of more import, obviously, are the swing states- which have shown a serious swing towards bam over the last few days. And regarding the dem/ rep balance in these polls, don’t yu think they are taking that into account? Cold call 100 individuals and if plus 6 say they are dems, then why go back to 2010 which was a suckers rally (imho). I’m not yet to 2008 levels, but i wouldn’t rule it out. And to be perfectly honest, right now I see a landfall for BAM. Which is more likely than a Romney squeek by w/ Co, Nevada, NH, NC, VA, IA and FLA. does WI need to be added?

  475. dave says:

    I knew yu’d all like the french thing. I’m here for ya

  476. Polaris says:

    #490

    Two points:

    1. State polls lag national numbers by about a week, and ‘bam’s national number in the polls that matter (get the right electoral picture) have collasped in the last week.

    2. Most of the state polls you cite are using 2008 turnout models which are WRONG.

    Oh…one more thing: Gallup and Ras poll swing states daily. Results? Same as the national number basically: Margin of Error race.

    -Polaris

  477. Michael says:

    What I want to know, Polaris, is why Romney is literally not EXCORIATING the media for cooking the polls, knowing full well how the electorate is. Also, do you think Romney really is going to nuke the hell out of Obama or does he, even with a COH advantage, have enough to really do it?

  478. Michael says:

    PS. I’m a big Romney fan (admittedly wanted Pawlenty on the ticket) but that’s fine.

  479. sir alberto says:

    Wes disappears..
    At the same time, Kristen for AZ disappears.

    Hmmmmmm ….

  480. Polaris says:

    #493 He is as much as he can. See post #449 on this thread. It was put out by Romney’s pollster.

    Romney himself can’t say a word about the slanted polling without looking like a loser and a whiner. It’s like trying to complain about the refs in a football game even if the refs are clearly on the take. Right now the public doesn’t fully appreciate out bad these polls are and complaining about it would look weak and whiny.

    It’s a fine line.

    -Polaris

  481. Polaris says:

    Also I don’t care if Romney’s warchest was 10 times bigger than it is, there is NO realistic warchest that would enable you to outbullhorn the MSM and it would be foolish to try.

    -Polaris

  482. sir alberto says:

    I think Romney is doing what he needs to do. The internals tell the real story. This is not going to be an elction where we are given the piece of mind to relax in the 4th quarter, BUT the Dems will fall for complacency. We are fearful, terrified really. The Zero experiment is coming to a close.

  483. dave says:

    and yet leaners in Repub RAS poll shows BAM getting 49. stop twisting yurselves in tortuous contortions. Romney is horribly behind. I’d admit if it was otherwise, but MITT is waaaaay back right now, and yu all know it. sorry, but it is true.

  484. Polaris says:

    #499 Even with leaners Obama doesn’t hit fifty and it’s still a MOE poll.

    That is not WAAAY behind. You do know what margin of error means, no? Just checking because you don’t seem to.

    -Polaris

  485. Polaris says:

    One more thing Dave, you do realize that no incumbant president has EVER polled above his JA rating (in Gallup) as taken at this time in the final election? Obama’s JA in Gallup is less than 50%

    That means he loses.

    -Polaris

  486. Diogenes5 says:

    Polaris paints an overconfident picture as always. Lots of his reasoning is sound. Its just that even if you adjust Romney is Still polling behind Obama in a lot of key states.

    Still, an important thing to note though is that Obama is well below 50% in accurate polling (D+4). In an economy that is worsening and a dismally high real unemployment rate, if Obama wins it will be unprecedented given themacroeconomic conditions.

    The election likely hinges on Ohio and Virginia.

    Ohio has unemployment below the always average but it is still above 7%, dangerous territory for any incumbent. Obama also won Ohio by only a couple of percentage points in 2008. Intuitively his margin will be less which means the Buckeye state will be a squeaker if Obama does win it.

    Virginia likewise poses a serious problem. It’s unemployment rate is even better at around 6%. Obama won by around 5% here in 2008 giving him more breathing room.

    The main thing is that in both Ohio and Virginia obamacare polls very poorly and Romney has missed a huge opportunity to take Obama to task.

    The drive bys are as annoying as always, if you don’t have at least a basic understanding of polling methods and how they can lead to bias please don’t bother to post. It’s been dealt with so many times before already.

    Still, No president has ever been reelected with greater than 7.6% unemployment and Reagan did it with that number after the economy had been red hot the final year of his first term. The idea that the deivebys keep trumpeting — that Obama will win in a landslide — is laughable.

  487. phoenixrisen says:

    #499 — dave, nobody’s twisting themselves in contortions here. The polls are nothing but a manipulation of turnout tool. I thought that was the case in 2008 but I admit, my emotional preference of who I wanted to win blinded the reality of the massive cash and crazy registration drives that Obama had in 2008. It’s nothing like that nowadays. The Obama campaign and surrogate registration organizations have been very lacking this go around. No where near the enthusiasm because he’s now an incumbent with a very, very crappy economy. I’ll admit, Romney took a very slight ding this week from the tape but it anywhere near of what I thought it could have been. Romney tied in an RV national poll of Gallup and down 1 in a three day Rasmussen tracking poll with a weight of D+2, combined with the certainty that Obama, the DNC, and their SuperPACs will be outspent significantly in the air waves the final six weeks.

  488. phoenixrisen says:

    Romney isn’t in a bad position at all.

  489. Tom Gordon says:

    Diogenes5 (and phoenix),

    You both raise good points. I, too, think Ohio and Virginia are decisive.

    I think Romney’s numbers have room to grow for one very important reason: no one really knows him yet. No one watched the Repub Convention. Viewership was way down. For a lot of people, the debates will be the first time they really “see” Romney.

    It will be during the debates that a lot of folks will decide whether Romney is up for the job.

  490. Tom Gordon says:

    Perhaps an unintended effect of the media meme that “Romney is floundering” will be that they are setting a very low bar for him for the debates.

    Again, when folks “see” Romney for the first time during the debates, they will actually see a smart, articulate problem solver (and not the Thurston Howell caricature the media painted).

    Romney’s numbers will rise after the debates despite the media saying Obama won them. The media said Gore won the debates in 2000, but Bush’s numbers rose after each debate.

  491. Eric Dondero says:

    Why vote for Todd Akin in Missouri, when you have a perfectly legitimate Libertarian Party candidate on the ballot – Jonathan Dine.

    The Libertarian Party serves as a back-up for the right when the GOP royally screws up. This is a screwed up situation. For this one instance, vote Libertarian.

  492. Michael says:

    Big Ten Updates:
    I will not be here to provide real updates until 6-9 because I am actually going to the PSU vs. Temple game! Look for me, I am going to be wearing my blue jacket n the red Temple section.

    However I will put down a prediction for how many BigTen teams will win this week.

    I predict the BigTen will get a 9-1 week this week (Purdue and Indiana are on Bye week)

    The loser I think will be Lousinana Tech vs. Illinois

    Some how PSU, Minnesota and Michigan will defeat their opponents (Temple, Syracuse, and Michigan)

    I will provide one SEC prediction as well

    Missouri at 7 South Carolina

    South Carolina will win I think

  493. Trevor says:

    We deserve more than the Obama/Romney choice. Vote for Gary Johnson, a true of Conservative American!

  494. Michael says:

    @509 Michigan not bet Michigan I meant Notre Dame

  495. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    Football updates! Sigh!

  496. Michael says:

    @510 Johnson troll why? You might as well go vote for Jill Stein, jeeze

  497. Michael says:

    @512 if you read this is the only one until 6-8 or so and you would read the reason as well.

  498. Tim says:

    #506:
    No one really knows him, yet?

    Dude, the Election is in 45 days.

    He’s been running for 5 years. How could no one know him?

  499. michael corleone says:

    What time do we get the Ras results?

  500. Michael says:

    @516 lol to many michaels

  501. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Again, when folks “see” Romney for the first time during the debates,

    Comment by Tom Gordon

    Assuming that very many folks even bother to watch them.

  502. Yolanda says:

    Great analysis in the NY Times this AM of Romney’s just released tax returns. Virtually no mention of the charitable giving (I’m sure they’re digging to find some recipient organization that was racist in the 1870s, or that has an administrative assistant who once said something disparaging about gay adoption rights).

    Seriously, the article also jabs Romney for paying more taxes than he actually had to. (I thought doing so was “patriotic,” according to some great sage whose name I can’t currently remember.)

    You’re really darned if you do, darned if you don’t with these people…

  503. Ben Romney says:

    Purple Stratagie Polls:

    National: Obama: 47/47 my numbers: 46.2/49.3
    Obama/Romney: 49/44 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 47.7/47.6

    AZ: Obama: 43/51 my numbers: 42.7/51.4
    Romney/Obama: 48/45 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50/45.6

    CO: Obama: 45/49 my numbers: 43.5/50.8
    Obama/Romney: 48/45 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 47.5/47.1

    FL: Obama: 46/50 my numbers: 46.6/49.3
    Romney/Obama: 48/47 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 48.6/47.7

    NC: Obama: 48/50 my numbers: 45.1/50.5
    Obama/Romney: 48/46 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.4/48.3

    OH: Obama: 46/47 my numbers: 45/48.1
    Obama/Romney: 48/44 my numbers: Obama/Romney: 46.9/45.1

    VA: Obama: 45/48 my numbers: 43.9/49.6
    Obama/Romney: 46/43 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 46.6/45.5

    Specially the OH and NC numbers are very strange. In 2008 Obama lost the Indy vote in NC by a 39/60 margin and now in a year when he`s losing the Indies everywhere he gains 6% of them in NC?? Obama won OH with 4% and the Indies with 8% now losing them with 10% but winning the state??? I don`t buy that!!!

    http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

  504. Hunter says:

    Which is exactly why Romney didn’t want to release more taxes…

    Just what he promised…

    For those of you crying that he do so, now you see the consequence of that…

    Good for Romney for not giving in…

    He’ll never win with MSM or the Dems…

    Don’t fool yourselves…

  505. Yolanda says:

    Also, MSNBC has released its planned format for debate coverage:

    “We are pleased to announce that Rachel Maddow and Al Sharpton will provide running commentary for our network’s viewers. After each time the president speaks, they will provide the honest, tough, and fair feedback that MSNBC viewers expect on his remarks, as well as commentary and fact checking on Thurston Howell’s responses, which viewers might often miss due to our panel’s commentaries. In this way, we will provide our patented honest, tough, and fair feedback, which discerning voters crave, while also giving them the necessary chance to hear the President speak. Chris Matthews will provide follow-up commentary from a Kleenex factory in the key swing state of Arizona.”

  506. Surfnut says:

    Funny how all the polls mean little to the myopic GOP true believers, since they are using 2008 exit poll results, oversample Dems, or are just plain “garbage.” The internal GOP polls show the same thing as the media polls. I guess they oversample Democrats too. If the GOP had a problem with the polls, they would say so. This is the same canard and red herring trotted out every election. If the Republican candidate wins, the candidate is great. If he loses, the liberal media caused it. Face it folks, Romney is a bad candidate, likely a bad person, and would make a horrible candidate. And to make matters worse for him, he’s running a terrible campaign. His lousy staff doesn’t help. He and his campaign got a false sense of themselves during the primaries, where the carpet bombed the B-list opposition. The GOP field was the weakest in modern memory, Romney included.

    I hope all of you saw the “Fox and Friends” SNL spoof from Thursday evening. Hilarious and priceless.

  507. Hunter says:

    ahh…

    I see the mooch is back…

    Surf nut…. What’s Mom cooking for breakfast this morning…

  508. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    ~~~~~ode to surfslut~~~~

    There once was a trolling mutt,
    Called himself surfnut,
    A flatulator of leftist hyperbole,
    He wallows in the realm of absurdity,
    Let us eschew this leftist wingnut.

  509. Ac1 says:

    Good morning. I hate Todd Akin.

  510. Waingro says:

    #527, hear, hear. And your posts from last night were awesome.

  511. Ben Romney says:

    Mason-Dixon: FL: Obama: 46/50 my numbers: 45.2/52.3

    Obama/Romney: 46/45 my numbers: Romney/Obama: 47.1/44.5

    http://www.cfnews13.com/content/news/cfnews13/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/7/13/florida_decides_poll_0.html
    July 2012 Florida De

  512. Michael says:

    @530 thanks!

  513. Wobbles says:

    It is a July poll- toss!!!

  514. PaCon says:

    Is Romney winning the independant vote in Gallup and ras? If so by what margin? Can’t seem to find this anywhere

  515. Marv says:

    RAS

    Romney—–46(nc)
    Obama——-46(-1)

  516. MD says:

    Ras

    Race is even

    +1 Obama with leaners

  517. Marv says:

    RAS with leaners

    Obama—–48(-1)
    Romney—-47(+1)

  518. Marv says:

    MD,

    Morning’, soldier.

  519. MD says:

    Ras is out on a limb with his turnout model in many polls. If he turns out to be wildly wrong, the firm will be in trouble. He has a solid history though.

  520. Ben Romney says:

    40% Believe Economy is Getting Better: Seven Year High

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index/rasmussen_consumer_index

    Did I miss something???
    bad news! this could change the race
    if unemployment goes down under 8% Romney is finished so sad but true

    :-((((((

  521. MD says:

    Same to you Pilot. What was your nickname Marv?

  522. Ben Romney says:

    It is a July poll- toss!!!

    Comment by Wobbles — September 22, 2012 @ 9:27 am

    No it`s updates Sept.21

    Last Updated: Friday, September 21, 2012 @ 11:12AM

  523. Marv says:

    MD,

    RAS is using a D+2 turnout model. He doesn’t use the party ID that he finds each month, for August, he found R+4.2.

  524. PaCon says:

    Who is winning indies in ras and by what margin?

  525. Pitchaboy says:

    Bad day R in RAS.

  526. Marv says:

    MD,

    I didn’t fly fighters, so I didn’t have an individual call sign. For each mission, we were assigned a different tactical call sign.

  527. MD says:

    Marv – in some of the states, he does seem to be using a heavy R weight.

  528. Wobbles says:

    I see no September update for that FL poll, Benny. I just clicked on the results.

  529. Ray says:

    Pitchaboy: It looks like we’ve diverged quite a bit on our nightlies. I actually had a favorable Romney night come on in my tracking estimates. To Bio Mom’s point, I guess we’re both flying a little blind here.

  530. Pitchaboy says:

    O plus 5 last two days. Will see tomorrow

  531. 1890s Republican says:

    Marv’s call sign was Chick Magnet.

  532. bio mom says:

    544 Pitch you make no sense. 3 day rolling average replaces T with F and Romney gains 1. I am interested in how you do your analysis, I never understand your numbers.

  533. RB says:

    I think Ras and Gallup are seeing a tight race and the ups and downs are playing in the margin.

    My feeling is that we are slightly behind nationally 2-3 points, and down in VA and OH. I think FL is neck and neck, but Obama continues to do a wonderful job at alienating the Jewish voters in SE FL. Someone may know better, but if Mitt gets more than 35% of Jewish voters in SE FL he wins(at least I think I read that somewhere.)

  534. Pitchaboy says:

    I have followed the non- lean track from start. Last three days Ray are R plus 5, O plus 2 and O plus 3. in the last two weeks O wins more days but the R days are bigger, thus barely keeping him in the race.

  535. Marv says:

    Pitchaboy,

    Rommey held steady at 46 and Obama lost a point and fell into a tie with Romney.

    When leaners are considered, Romney gained a point to 47 and Obama lost a point to fall to 48, and a 1 point lead. So, there was a two point swing in Romney’s favor in the poll today.

  536. W.PA Observer says:

    544- I don’t see any such a bad day- he gained one in head to head to tie- gained a net two in leaners- O lost a point in approval. The day that put O up two rolls off tomorrow.

    I think the 40% economy is getting better are Democrats lining up behind O– you’re not gonna say, “Things suck! I’m keeping the guy in charge because I’m a shameless partisan!” It becomes, “Things are getting better, I’m satisfied.” Gallup’s measure of this is an example- Democrats think things are going well, Republicans think they’re terrible, Indies think things are bad, and are closer to Republicans on that metric.

  537. Hunter says:

    I don’t understand Pitch’s numbers either…

    Will wait for Frank…

  538. Bitterlaw says:

    More than 10 posts without one from Polaris? Call 911.

  539. Robbie says:

    This new tweet from Rasmussen explains the polls as well as any.

    Scott Rasmussen?@RasmussenPoll

    40% say economy getting better… highest in seven years… http://tinyurl.com/24ccbzt

  540. Pitchaboy says:

    #552:
    I will give you the track for the last week
    Sun. R plus 8
    Mon. O plus 3
    Tue. O plus 4
    We’d. R plus 5
    Thurs. o plus 2
    Fri. O plus 3

  541. Marv says:

    Ray,

    What is currently on your 3 day sample, Wed, Thur, Fri nights.

  542. Ben Romney says:

    Last Updated: Friday, September 21, 2012 @ 11:12AM
    Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on google Share on email More Sharing Services 8
    florida decides

    Local Election News
    Political Connections
    Election 2012 Tracker

    ORLANDO —

    Originally posted Friday, July 13, 2012.

    More Floridians think Mitt Romney would do a better job with the economy than President Barack Obama.

  543. Jeff P says:

    Race is even regardless of all these other polls. This is a great sign for Romney. Debates will give an opportunity to see if he can be an acceptable President with some of the undecided. He should do will here. They will break 2-1 R. Combine that with the GOTV efforts and R enthusiasm see RAS +4 numbers and this is pointing to a Romney win I think. 51-48-1 %

  544. W.PA Observer says:

    Indies are a strange bunch frankly, I don’t know all that many true Indies – but I always wonder — if they’re 50 or so.

    “How can you justify voting Reagan, Reagan, Bush, Perot, Clinton, Gore, Bush, Obama, —–” or, “Anderson, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Perot, Bush, Kerry, O,” or, etc. That’s some ideology there.”

    Or in PA- “How the hell do you vote for Obama and Pat Toomey within 2 years of each other, did something malfunction there?”

  545. AuH2ORepublican says:

    Mason-Dixon released a Senate poll for FL yesterday (showed Nelson beating Mack 48-40), and will release a presidential poll of FL today. The poll that Ben posted is the one from July–it even had a section discussing how Romney was considering Rubio for the ticket and what effect that might have in FL.

  546. bio mom says:

    Pitch, When you do no have inside information you cannot analyze things your way. You have no idea what the numbers were. If my memory is correct Romney had a 3 point drop in the head to head from Tuesday to WEdnesday, suggesting an awful Tuesday following the tape. Then he sayed the same on Thursday,up 1 on Friday and up 1 again today to a tie. I do not understand how you analyze.

  547. Wobbles says:

    Yet 60 percent say we are in a recession – RAS.

  548. Hugh says:

    557 you are absolutely right. And to reverse engineer the 3 day poll doesn’t work unless you simultaneously do the same with the 7 day poll

  549. W.PA Observer says:

    The reason 40% say it’s getting better is that 73 % of Democrats say it is. 67 % of Republicans say it’s getting worse. Indies probably somewhere in between, tipping towards the Republican opinion.

  550. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    (R/D)

    2008: 22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
    2012: 22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%

    August & September trends (no leaners)

    22-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    21-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    20-Sep/45%/47%/-2%
    19-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    18-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    17-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    16-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    15-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    14-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    13-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    12-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    11-Sep/45%/48%/-3%
    10-Sep/45%/50%/-5%
    09-Sep/45%/49%/-4%
    08-Sep/44%/46%/-2%
    07-Sep/46%/45%/+1%
    06-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    05-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    02-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    01-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    31-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    30-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    29-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    28-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    27-Aug/44%/47%/-3%
    26-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    25-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    24-Aug/46%/45%/+1%
    23-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    22-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    21-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    20-Aug/44%/43%/+1%
    19-Aug/43%/45%/-2%
    18-Aug/44%/46%/-2%
    17-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    16-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    15-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    14-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    13-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    12-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    11-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    10-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    09-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    08-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    07-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    06-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    05-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    04-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    03-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    02-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    01-Aug/47%/44%/+3%

    August & September trends (with leaners)

    22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
    21-Sep/46%/49%/-3%
    20-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    19-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    18-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    17-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    16-Sep/48%/49%/-1%
    15-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
    13-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    12-Sep/48%/47%/+1%
    11-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    10-Sep/46%/50%/-4%
    09-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    08-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    07-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    06-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    05-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    04-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    03-Sep/50%/46%/+4%
    02-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    31-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    30-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    29-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    27-Aug/45%/49%/-4%
    26-Aug/46%/49%/-3%
    25-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    24-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    23-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    22-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    21-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    20-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    19-Aug/46%/47%/-1%
    18-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    17-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    16-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    15-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    14-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    13-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    12-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    11-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    10-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    09-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    08-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    07-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    06-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    05-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    02-Aug/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Aug/50%/45%/+5%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)

    22-Sep/47.43%/48.57%/-1.14%
    21-Sep/47.57%/48.57%/-1.00%
    20-Sep/48.14%/48.29%/-0.14%
    19-Sep/48.43%/47.86%/+0.57%
    18-Sep/48.43%/47.71%/+0.71%
    17-Sep/48.29%/47.86%/+0.43%
    16-Sep/48.00%/48.14%/-0.14%
    15-Sep/47.86%/48.29%/-0.43%
    14-Sep/47.57%/48.14%/-0.57%
    13-Sep/47.14%/48.00%/-0.86%
    12-Sep/47.14%/47.71%/-0.57%
    11-Sep/47.29%/47.71%/-0.43%
    10-Sep/47.57%/47.43%/+0.14%
    09-Sep/48.14%/46.86%/+1.29%
    08-Sep/48.43%/46.14%/+2.29%
    07-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/48.43%/46.29%/+2.14%
    04-Sep/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
    03-Sep/47.57%/46.57%/+1.00%
    02-Sep/46.86%/47.00%/-0.14%
    01-Sep/46.43%/47.57%/-1.14%
    31-Aug/46.29%/48.00%/-1.71%
    30-Aug/46.43%/48.00%/-1.57%
    29-Aug/46.57%/47.71%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/46.86%/47.29%/-0.43%
    27-Aug/47.00%/47.00%/+0.00%
    26-Aug/47.29%/46.57%/+0.71%
    25-Aug/47.29%/46.29%/+1.00%
    24-Aug/47.29%/46.14%/+1.14%
    23-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    22-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    21-Aug/47.43%/46.14%/+1.29%
    20-Aug/47.86%/46.00%/+1.86%
    19-Aug/48.29%/45.86%/+2.43%
    18-Aug/48.57%/45.57%/+3.00%
    17-Aug/48.71%/45.29%/+3.43%
    16-Aug/49.00%/44.86%/+4.14%
    15-Aug/49.14%/44.57%/+4.57%
    14-Aug/48.86%/44.86%/+4.00%
    13-Aug/48.43%/45.14%/+3.29%
    12-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    11-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    10-Aug/47.86%/45.57%/+2.29%
    09-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    08-Aug/48.00%/45.71%/+2.29%
    07-Aug/48.29%/45.57%/+2.71%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)

    22-Sep/46.29%/45.86%/+1.43%
    21-Sep/46.57%/45.86%/+0.71%
    20-Sep/47.00%/45.71%/+1.29%
    19-Sep/47.29%/45.57%/+1.71%
    18-Sep/47.00%/45.57%/+1.43%
    17-Sep/46.71%/46.00%/+0.71%
    16-Sep/46.43%/46.71%/-0.29%
    15-Sep/46.14%/47.14%/-1.00%
    14-Sep/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    13-Sep/45.29%/47.14%/-1.86%
    12-Sep/45.29%/46.86%/-1.57%
    11-Sep/45.71%/46.71%/-1.00%
    10-Sep/46.00%/46.29%/-0.29%
    09-Sep/46.43%/45.43%/+1.00%
    08-Sep/46.86%/44.71%/+2.14%
    07-Sep/47.29%/44.43%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/47.14%/44.29%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/46.86%/44.43%/+2.43%
    04-Sep/46.43%/44.57%/+1.86%
    03-Sep/46.14%/44.86%/+1.29%
    02-Sep/45.57%/45.29%/+0.29%
    01-Sep/45.14%/45.71%/-0.57%
    31-Aug/44.86%/46.00%/-1.14%
    30-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    29-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/45.14%/45.86%/-0.71%
    27-Aug/45.14%/45.43%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/45.14%/44.86%/+0.29%
    25-Aug/44.86%/44.57%/+0.29%
    24-Aug/44.71%/44.57%/+0.14%
    23-Aug/44.57%/44.71%/-0.14%
    22-Aug/44.57%/44.57%/+0.00%
    21-Aug/44.71%/44.43%/+0.29%
    20-Aug/45.00%/44.43%/+0.57%
    19-Aug/45.43%/44.57%/+0.86%

    McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)

    7-Day Rolling Average:

    McCain’s bounce was starting to fade.

    22-Sep/47.57%/47.71%/-0.14%
    21-Sep/47.86%/47.57%/+0.29%
    20-Sep/48.29%/47.43%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    18-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    17-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    16-Sep/48.57%/47.00%/+1.57%
    15-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    14-Sep/48.43%/47.14%/+1.29%
    13-Sep/48.14%/47.29%/+0.86%
    12-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    11-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    10-Sep/46.86%/48.29%/-1.43%
    09-Sep/46.57%/48.57%/-2.00%
    08-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/45.86%/49.29%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    05-Sep/45.43%/49.43%/-4.00%
    04-Sep/45.29%/49.57%/-4.28%
    03-Sep/45.57%/49.14%/-3.57%
    02-Sep/45.86%/48.57%/-2.71%
    01-Sep/46.00%/47.86%/-1.86%
    31-Aug/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
    30-Aug/45.71%/47.57%/-1.86%
    29-Aug/45.86%/47.43%/-1.57%
    28-Aug/46.00%/47.14%/-1.14%
    27-Aug/45.86%/47.29%/-1.43%
    26-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    25-Aug/45.57%/47.57%/-2.00%
    24-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    23-Aug/45.71%/47.29%/-1.57%
    22-Aug/45.57%/47.00%/-1.43%
    21-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    20-Aug/45.43%/46.86%/-1.43%
    19-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    18-Aug/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    17-Aug/45.57%/47.29%/-1.71%
    16-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%

    Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)

    21-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    21-Sep/-0.29%/+1.00%
    20-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/-0.14%/+0.71%
    18-Sep/-0.29%/+0.86%
    17-Sep/-0.43%/+1.00%
    16-Sep/-0.57%/+1.14%
    15-Sep/-0.71%/+1.14%
    14-Sep/-0.86%/+1.00%
    13-Sep/-1.00%/+0.71%
    12-Sep/-0.57%/-0.00%
    11-Sep/+0.00%/-0.29%
    10-Sep/+0.71%/-0.86%
    09-Sep/+1.57%/-1.71%
    08-Sep/+2.29%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/+2.86%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/+3.14%/-3.57%
    05-Sep/+3.00%/-3.14%
    04-Sep/+2.71%/-3.14%
    03-Sep/+2.00%/-2.57%
    02-Sep/+1.00%/-1.57%
    01-Sep/+0.43%/-0.29%
    31-Aug/+0.43%/+0.29%
    30-Aug/+0.71%/+0.43%
    29-Aug/+0.71%/+0.29%
    28-Aug/+0.86%/+0.14%
    27-Aug/+1.14%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/+1.57%/-0.86%
    25-Aug/+1.71%/-1.29%
    24-Aug/+1.57%/-1.29%
    23-Aug/+1.43%/-1.00%
    22-Aug/+1.57%/-0.71%
    21-Aug/+2.00%/-0.86%
    20-Aug/+2.43%/-0.86%

    August Average:

    (no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
    (with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%

    September Average:

    (no leaners) 46.45%/45.82%/+0.64%

    (with leaners) 47.91%/47.55%/+0.36%

    Continue to stay patient, my friends.

    Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.

    Frank

  551. Wobbles says:

    So, the raxe is tied. We need to see the indy breakout too.

  552. bio mom says:

    561

    You say R plus 5 on W?? From what would that come? That was the height of the tape scandal. I cannot believe that is accurate.

  553. Ray says:

    I had the following (w/o leaners):

    Sun: Romney + 5
    Mon: Romney + 2
    Tue: Obama + 2
    Wed: Obama + 4
    Thur: Romney + 1
    Fri: Romney + 3

  554. Marv says:

    The RAS with leaners 2 point swing in Romney’s favor was the best polling news we’ve had since Gallup first showed that 47-47 tie.

  555. Wobbles says:

    In the debate between Brown and the fake Native, gas prices played a role. This is the debate where Brown won by 10 points.

  556. W.PA Observer says:

    Oh wait, Indies say it’s getting worse 48-30. Which sounds like partisan leaners and bodes well for Romney.

  557. Wobbles says:

    I think a somewhat big Obama day roles off tomorrow to be added to ?

  558. W.PA Observer says:

    Also, Lamontagne polling well for governor is a good sign in NH-I can’t see too many ticket splitters at the top there. A Romney call in NH relatively early on election night would be a great sign- to say nothing of the electoral votes.

  559. Ray says:

    My #s suggest a tie night tonight will put Romney back in the lead. Hope I’m right!

    I also started to do the same with leaners thanks to Frank’s #s. Romney could also take a lead there tonight too, again, if my #s are in the right ballpark.

  560. Wobbles says:

    So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

    Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

    -Morris

  561. Pitchaboy says:

    567: I want R to win as much as you do. But the numbers are the numbers and it is fairly simple math. The only caveat it misses is if the party ID is changed in the middle.

  562. Walt says:

    Morning gang,

    PPP just relased a poll:

    46% Walt’s grass (lawn not wacky weed)
    0% Walt
    54% Obama

    I an about to reverse the top two numbers. But, sadly, PPP will still show an Obama lead.

    Then sometime this week I gotta do my campaign finance reports.

  563. Robbie says:

    564

    The race is not even. Even Romney tacitly admitted as much last night in an interview to air on 60 Minutes tomorrow.

    Romney told Scott Pelley the race was tied because the polls were within the margin of error. That is a classic admission that a candidate is trailing. Tom Barrett said the same thing before the recall as well.

    And Romney should understand the MOE works both ways. If he trails by 3 points and the MOE is 3, it’s just as likely he’s down 6 points as it is he’s tied.

  564. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    *R* as!

    All by his lonesome! Everything points to an EV landslide.

  565. phoenixrisen says:

    My take on the race? Population vote? It’s tied. If the election was held right now I would make Obama the very slightest of favorites. Simply because I think he eeks it out in Ohio right now by about 2 points and Virginia is completely up in the air.

    Good thing is though, Romney is going to dominate Obama on the airwaves once he makes his final push. There are still roughly 8-10% of voters that are undecided. Romney ground game is outperforming Bush-Cheney 2004. I like our chances in the debate format. Romney was unflappable for the most part in the GOP primary debates, very skilled and he has a crackerjack debate prep opponent in Portman who has been hammering him in sessions. Not worried at all about Ryan.

  566. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Robbie understands! And he’s a rabid conservative Republican!

  567. Marv says:

    Ray,

    Your numbers track with the RAS top line number. The move toward Rommey in the with leaners poll published today tends to verify that you’re close.

  568. phoenixrisen says:

    #585 — Robbie, LOL. Going to start calling you Gray Cloud. Romney’s position is fine.

  569. W.PA Observer says:

    Robbie, he also said “we bounce around, some days we’re up, some days they’re up”- “it’s a margin of error race” works both ways.

    Actually now Ras and Gallup are in sync.

  570. bio mom says:

    In the 2004 election or maybe the 2008 wasn’t gallup releasing two results each day based upon two different modeling assumptions?

  571. Robbie says:

    There is simply no reason to believe the race is tied. Romney trails in all of the national polls with the exception of Gallup. And the best Gallup has shown for Romney in a month is a tie. Romney also trails, albeit narrowly, in all of the important battelground states. This is not a tied or even race.

  572. Wobbles says:

    Actuaaly with gallup likely, Romney is ahead. Two of the more honest polling firms indicate a tied race.

  573. RB says:

    2 hours till the nation gets to see the ‘Pards in action on the CBS Sports
    Network.

  574. Frank says:

    Rasmussen Analysis:

    I will start with the fact that the 7-day rolling average has shown an increase for Obama. This is clearly due to the two days that the leaners had him at 49% and 50%. All of the other days have been 48%.

    The “with leaners” shows good news. There was a one day spike from 48% to 50% but it has returned to 48% in two days. This means that the day coming on was less than the day falling off. This is true for both today and yesterday. So tomorrow should show Obama below 48%.

    My table with daily “guesses” is at work, so I can’t tell you what I have for the daily numbers, but needless to say, I stand by what the previous paragraph says. I hope that I am accurate.

    The “no leaners” numbers also show good news. There was a lousy Romney day from September 19 to September 20 that lowered Romney’s average from 47% to 45% overnight. It stayed at the same 45% yesterday which meant that the day falling off was the same as the day going on. That day falling off had kept his average at 47%, so the day coming on must have been around 47%.

    Today was an even better day because his average increased from 45% to 46%. This means that the day that fell off was worse than the day that went on. The day that fell off was the day that maintained the 47%. This means that the day that came on was better than 48%.

    So, in summary, last night was around 48% for Romney and the day before was around 47%. This means that tomorrow, assuming that it is a normal sample, his average should increase to 47%, possibly 48% if it is a 48% or higher sample.

    Let’s see what happens.

    Frank

  575. Wobbles says:

    Actually, Romney said that some days he is up, some days Obama is up.

  576. Polaris says:

    Good morning. I hope no one was too worried about my absence :) [It's Saturday and I overslept.]

    Pitchboy, I don’t know about your numbers. No possibly offense is meant but perhaps rounding errors skewed your numbers to the point where your daily ones aren’t accurate? Otherwise you are asking me to believe a level of noise that seems unlikely even for a tracking poll. When you have one guy have to win two days in a row and the other guy win big every third, it indicates a methedogical error (on a three day poll). Just speculatating.

    That said, I do agree that a moderately pro-Obama day rolled on but it was less than the Obama day that rolled off. Give it another day or so, and then we’ll see if there is a trend.

    For now, I am happy with calling this race a MOE race. I will be interested in seeing what Gallup has to say today.

    Yes that florida poll is the updated one with updated results. It should be considered current (I just checked).

    As for MO, I would proudly concur that instead of voting Dem for senate there, vote Libertarian. It probably won’t stop the Dem hold there, but what else can you do?

    As for Johnson, I am a proud Libertarian, but the fact is that a vote for the Libertarian candidate is de-facto a vote for Obama. If you want to oust the president, then you vote for Romney. It’s that simple in a country with an established two party system.

    -Polaris

  577. Marv says:

    #580 Ray,

    I think that Obama will win the night tonight. That’s because Air Force at UNLV is on TV. Most of the conservative GOP’ers I know will be watching that game and refuse to answer the phone.

  578. Robbie says:

    590.#585 — Robbie, LOL. Going to start calling you Gray Cloud. Romney’s position is fine.

    Comment by phoenixrisen — September 22, 2012 @ 10:10 am

    When Romney was trailing in the summer months, all I heard was he’s in a fine position. Now that Romney’s trailing with six weeks to go, he’s in a fine position too? Will that be the view with three weeks to go as well? It’s not 1980 and Romney ain’t Regan.

    I’m not saying Romney will lose, but I’m saying some need to stop pretending the race is something it’s not. It’s not a fine position to be in when stories about campaign infighting go public.

  579. Robbie says:

    597.Actually, Romney said that some days he is up, some days Obama is up.

    Comment by Wobbles — September 22, 2012 @ 10:15 am

    Fair point.

  580. Wobbles says:

    Fair point.

    Ladivadobbie, you omitted it entirely from your point.

  581. Wobbles says:

    How did Romney fare among independents in Rasmussen?

  582. Jeff G. says:

    The Purple Strategies polls are very encouraging (purplestrategies.com). They have R+1 in Florida and O +3 and +4 in Virginia and Ohio, respectively. The key is that the undecided and wobbly supporters (those who say they could change their minds) amount to about 15% to 20% in each state. This is much different than 2008. Romney can still alter the race with the debates whereas McCain was done before the debates even started. The Lehman meltdown had already assured that.

  583. Polaris says:

    #601 I think I speak for almost everyone here when I say that I too would rather see Romney ahead than behind. That said, other than 2008, I have never seen such horrid polling, and in 2008 there was at least the excuse of the financial crisis and an enthusiastic Obama campaign (that had seemingly unlimited resources)…which is like polling in the middle of a hurricane. Even then most of the polls were badly wrong. People forget that because Obama won anyway, but they were.

    In 2012 there is none of that, and yet the pollsters are still partying like it’s 1999 2008. Even Romney’s own pollster has come out and called it what it was: dishonest and an attempt to suppress the GOP vote. My point being is not to stroll down an unpleasent memory lane but to remind everyone that we probably won’t see Romney in the lead (certainly not in the RCP) except *maybe* Gallup and Ras (esp Gallup if using a reasonable LV) until the very, very end…and maybe not even then.

    That sucks, but that’s the way it seems to be.

    -Polaris

  584. Pitchaboy says:

    At the peak of convention bounce Gallup Party ID was D plus 7 two weeks ago

  585. RB says:

    Dear SEC fans-I officially don’t want to hear it. Our little rag-tag boys from the Garden State just took you down on your home field in Arkansas…RU now goes to 4-0 and will force the ‘biased media’ to write down our name in the top 25

  586. Phil says:

    Play Alabama and then get back to us. They beat Arkansas the week before 52-0.

  587. It is known that cash can make us free. But how to act when somebody does not have cash? The one way only is to get the home loans or term loan.