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Obama Leads By 12% in ME

I have always been a big believer in a single Election Day for voting, but clearly that ship has sailed and for the most part, it seems voting was still limited to within a week of the Election Day. Now apparently voters in Iowa can vote 40 days in advance of the election, in other words – today. This is absolutely ridiculous….

Scott Rasmussen released the presidential portion of his poll in Maine that shows Barack Obama with a double-digit lead there.

PRESIDENT – MAINE (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 40%

This poll was done September 25th among 500 likely voters. In his email today, he said he would be releasing a poll for the Washington gubernatorial race.

Posted by Dave at 11:16 am
Filed under: General | Comments (235)

235 Responses to “Obama Leads By 12% in ME”

  1. Tom Gordon says:

    Regarding the Virginia poll showing Romney down 2 pts, I doubt you will see Gary Johnson or Virgi Goode register 1% each on election day.

    There’s a fair chance that Romney picks up most of those votes.

    Also, as DW points out, 46% for the incumbent is a terrible number.

  2. Scott says:

    Sorry,but Robbie’s “confession” is non-sensical and self-serving.I do not buy it.
    We are all frustrated with Romney’s sluggish campaign,but none of us have switched to Obama. If Robbie was truly sincere,he would skip the vote for President.

  3. pitchaboy says:

    I have outed Robbie.

  4. Tom Gordon says:

    In 2004 in Virginia, Kerry consistently polled around the 45% mark.

    On election day, Kerry got 45% of the vote.

  5. Tom Gordon says:

    In 2004, in Virginia, Bush polled around the 49-50% mark in pre-election polls.

    Bush got 53.5% of the vote on election day.

  6. Bitterlaw says:

    Ok. Robbie broke. Move on. He bores me.

  7. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    (R/D)

    2008: 28-Sep/44%/50%/-6%
    2012: 28-Sep/48%/48%/+0% (I’ll take it)

    August & September trends (no leaners)

    28-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    27-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    26-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    25-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    24-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    23-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    22-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    21-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    20-Sep/45%/47%/-2%
    19-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    18-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    17-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    16-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    15-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    14-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    13-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    12-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    11-Sep/45%/48%/-3%
    10-Sep/45%/50%/-5%
    09-Sep/45%/49%/-4%
    08-Sep/44%/46%/-2%
    07-Sep/46%/45%/+1%
    06-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    05-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    02-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    01-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    31-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    30-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    29-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    28-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    27-Aug/44%/47%/-3%
    26-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    25-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    24-Aug/46%/45%/+1%
    23-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    22-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    21-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    20-Aug/44%/43%/+1%
    19-Aug/43%/45%/-2%
    18-Aug/44%/46%/-2%
    17-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    16-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    15-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    14-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    13-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    12-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    11-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    10-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    09-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    08-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    07-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    06-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    05-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    04-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    03-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    02-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    01-Aug/47%/44%/+3%

    August & September trends (with leaners)

    28-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    27-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    26-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    25-Sep/47%/47%/+0%
    24-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    23-Sep/48%/48%/-1%
    22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
    21-Sep/46%/49%/-3%
    20-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    19-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    18-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    17-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    16-Sep/48%/49%/-1%
    15-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
    13-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    12-Sep/48%/47%/+1%
    11-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    10-Sep/46%/50%/-4%
    09-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    08-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    07-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    06-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    05-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    04-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    03-Sep/50%/46%/+4%
    02-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    31-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    30-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    29-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    27-Aug/45%/49%/-4%
    26-Aug/46%/49%/-3%
    25-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    24-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    23-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    22-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    21-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    20-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    19-Aug/46%/47%/-1%
    18-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    17-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    16-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    15-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    14-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    13-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    12-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    11-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    10-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    09-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    08-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    07-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    06-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    05-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    02-Aug/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Aug/50%/45%/+5%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)

    28-Sep/47.71%/47.57%/+0.14%
    27-Sep/47.43%/47.71%/-0.29%
    26-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/47.29%/48.29%/-1.00%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    23-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    22-Sep/47.43%/48.57%/-1.14%
    21-Sep/47.57%/48.57%/-1.00%
    20-Sep/48.14%/48.29%/-0.14%
    19-Sep/48.43%/47.86%/+0.57%
    18-Sep/48.43%/47.71%/+0.71%
    17-Sep/48.29%/47.86%/+0.43%
    16-Sep/48.00%/48.14%/-0.14%
    15-Sep/47.86%/48.29%/-0.43%
    14-Sep/47.57%/48.14%/-0.57%
    13-Sep/47.14%/48.00%/-0.86%
    12-Sep/47.14%/47.71%/-0.57%
    11-Sep/47.29%/47.71%/-0.43%
    10-Sep/47.57%/47.43%/+0.14%
    09-Sep/48.14%/46.86%/+1.29%
    08-Sep/48.43%/46.14%/+2.29%
    07-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/48.43%/46.29%/+2.14%
    04-Sep/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
    03-Sep/47.57%/46.57%/+1.00%
    02-Sep/46.86%/47.00%/-0.14%
    01-Sep/46.43%/47.57%/-1.14%
    31-Aug/46.29%/48.00%/-1.71%
    30-Aug/46.43%/48.00%/-1.57%
    29-Aug/46.57%/47.71%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/46.86%/47.29%/-0.43%
    27-Aug/47.00%/47.00%/+0.00%
    26-Aug/47.29%/46.57%/+0.71%
    25-Aug/47.29%/46.29%/+1.00%
    24-Aug/47.29%/46.14%/+1.14%
    23-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    22-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    21-Aug/47.43%/46.14%/+1.29%
    20-Aug/47.86%/46.00%/+1.86%
    19-Aug/48.29%/45.86%/+2.43%
    18-Aug/48.57%/45.57%/+3.00%
    17-Aug/48.71%/45.29%/+3.43%
    16-Aug/49.00%/44.86%/+4.14%
    15-Aug/49.14%/44.57%/+4.57%
    14-Aug/48.86%/44.86%/+4.00%
    13-Aug/48.43%/45.14%/+3.29%
    12-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    11-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    10-Aug/47.86%/45.57%/+2.29%
    09-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    08-Aug/48.00%/45.71%/+2.29%
    07-Aug/48.29%/45.57%/+2.71%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)

    28-Sep/46.00%/46.43%/-0.43%
    27-Sep/45.86%/46.29%/-0.43%
    26-Sep/45.71%/46.43%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/45.86%/46.43%/-0.57%
    24-Sep/46.00%/46.14%/-0.14%
    23-Sep/46.14%/45.86%/+0.29%
    22-Sep/46.29%/45.86%/+0.43%
    21-Sep/46.57%/45.86%/+0.71%
    20-Sep/47.00%/45.71%/+1.29%
    19-Sep/47.29%/45.57%/+1.71%
    18-Sep/47.00%/45.57%/+1.43%
    17-Sep/46.71%/46.00%/+0.71%
    16-Sep/46.43%/46.71%/-0.29%
    15-Sep/46.14%/47.14%/-1.00%
    14-Sep/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    13-Sep/45.29%/47.14%/-1.86%
    12-Sep/45.29%/46.86%/-1.57%
    11-Sep/45.71%/46.71%/-1.00%
    10-Sep/46.00%/46.29%/-0.29%
    09-Sep/46.43%/45.43%/+1.00%
    08-Sep/46.86%/44.71%/+2.14%
    07-Sep/47.29%/44.43%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/47.14%/44.29%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/46.86%/44.43%/+2.43%
    04-Sep/46.43%/44.57%/+1.86%
    03-Sep/46.14%/44.86%/+1.29%
    02-Sep/45.57%/45.29%/+0.29%
    01-Sep/45.14%/45.71%/-0.57%
    31-Aug/44.86%/46.00%/-1.14%
    30-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    29-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/45.14%/45.86%/-0.71%
    27-Aug/45.14%/45.43%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/45.14%/44.86%/+0.29%
    25-Aug/44.86%/44.57%/+0.29%
    24-Aug/44.71%/44.57%/+0.14%
    23-Aug/44.57%/44.71%/-0.14%
    22-Aug/44.57%/44.57%/+0.00%
    21-Aug/44.71%/44.43%/+0.29%
    20-Aug/45.00%/44.43%/+0.57%
    19-Aug/45.43%/44.57%/+0.86%

    McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)

    7-Day Rolling Average:

    McCain was starting to crash.

    28-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    27-Sep/46.57%/48.71%/-2.14%
    26-Sep/47.00%/48.43%/-1.43%
    25-Sep/47.14%/48.29%/-1.14%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
    23-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
    22-Sep/47.57%/47.71%/-0.14%
    21-Sep/47.86%/47.57%/+0.29%
    20-Sep/48.29%/47.43%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    18-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    17-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    16-Sep/48.57%/47.00%/+1.57%
    15-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    14-Sep/48.43%/47.14%/+1.29%
    13-Sep/48.14%/47.29%/+0.86%
    12-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    11-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    10-Sep/46.86%/48.29%/-1.43%
    09-Sep/46.57%/48.57%/-2.00%
    08-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/45.86%/49.29%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    05-Sep/45.43%/49.43%/-4.00%
    04-Sep/45.29%/49.57%/-4.28%
    03-Sep/45.57%/49.14%/-3.57%
    02-Sep/45.86%/48.57%/-2.71%
    01-Sep/46.00%/47.86%/-1.86%
    31-Aug/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
    30-Aug/45.71%/47.57%/-1.86%
    29-Aug/45.86%/47.43%/-1.57%
    28-Aug/46.00%/47.14%/-1.14%
    27-Aug/45.86%/47.29%/-1.43%
    26-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    25-Aug/45.57%/47.57%/-2.00%
    24-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    23-Aug/45.71%/47.29%/-1.57%
    22-Aug/45.57%/47.00%/-1.43%
    21-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    20-Aug/45.43%/46.86%/-1.43%
    19-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    18-Aug/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    17-Aug/45.57%/47.29%/-1.71%
    16-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%

    Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)

    28-Sep/+1.57%/-1.43%
    27-Sep/+0.86%/-1.00%
    26-Sep/+0.57%/-0.57%
    25-Sep/+0.14%/+0.00%
    24-Sep/+0.00%/+0.43%
    23-Sep/-0.14%/+0.57%
    22-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    21-Sep/-0.29%/+1.00%
    20-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/-0.14%/+0.71%
    18-Sep/-0.29%/+0.86%
    17-Sep/-0.43%/+1.00%
    16-Sep/-0.57%/+1.14%
    15-Sep/-0.71%/+1.14%
    14-Sep/-0.86%/+1.00%
    13-Sep/-1.00%/+0.71%
    12-Sep/-0.57%/-0.00%
    11-Sep/+0.00%/-0.29%
    10-Sep/+0.71%/-0.86%
    09-Sep/+1.57%/-1.71%
    08-Sep/+2.29%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/+2.86%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/+3.14%/-3.57%
    05-Sep/+3.00%/-3.14%
    04-Sep/+2.71%/-3.14%
    03-Sep/+2.00%/-2.57%
    02-Sep/+1.00%/-1.57%
    01-Sep/+0.43%/-0.29%
    31-Aug/+0.43%/+0.29%
    30-Aug/+0.71%/+0.43%
    29-Aug/+0.71%/+0.29%
    28-Aug/+0.86%/+0.14%
    27-Aug/+1.14%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/+1.57%/-0.86%
    25-Aug/+1.71%/-1.29%
    24-Aug/+1.57%/-1.29%
    23-Aug/+1.43%/-1.00%
    22-Aug/+1.57%/-0.71%
    21-Aug/+2.00%/-0.86%
    20-Aug/+2.43%/-0.86%

    August Average:

    (no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
    (with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%

    September Average:

    (no leaners) 46.36%/45.96%/+0.39%
    (with leaners) 47.89%/47.54%/+0.36%

    Continue to stay patient, my friends.

    Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.

    Frank

  8. SusyQue says:

    Rass Report…September 28…

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 46%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

    Romney is supported by 86% of Republicans, while Obama gets the vote from 85% of Democrats. The GOP hopeful has a four-point edge among voters not affiliated with either major party.

    When “leaners” are included, the race is tied at 48% apiece. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question. Beginning this Monday, October 1, Rasmussen Reports will be basing its daily updates solely upon the results including leaners.

    The president holds a solid lead in Maine, while Romney has a big advantage in Arizona.

  9. Frank says:

    90.Rasmussen Swing-State Poll:

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women (no leaners)

    46/88/13/43/48/45 Romney
    46/09/84/40/46/47 Obama

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women (with leaners)

    48/89/13/47/49/46 Romney
    47/10/84/42/47/48 Obama

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women (job approval)

    48/10/83/45/47/49 approve
    51/88/16/53/52/50 disapprove

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women (Certain)

    42/84/12/34/44/40 Romney
    41/07/79/31/39/43 Obama

    Frank

  10. Frank says:

    Friends,

    I have some very cool graphs that I have created from the Swing-State data. I have included the following:

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men Women (with leaners)

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men Women (no leaners)

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men Women (certain)

    From this data, I have created a table of 7-day averages for each set of data.

    I have a graph for head-to-head with leaners.

    I have a graph for base vote with leaners.

    I have a graph of indie support with leaners (this graph is VERY cool)

    Does anybody know how I can attach the graphs to one of these posts, so that I can share the graphs?

    Frank

  11. SusyQue says:

    Rass Report

    Swing State Daily Tracking:
    51% Disapprove of Job Obama is Doing

  12. Jeff G. says:

    Thank you, Frank, for being the only person who makes long posts that are actually useful.

  13. Jeff G. says:

    Frank, is there some way we can send you individual emails so you can send out an email blast with attachments?

  14. Mose says:

    I honestly didn’t expect to see Akin leading in any more polls, but Chilenski Strategies see it:
    Akin 47.5%
    McCaskill 46.5%

    They have Romney leading by 6, 50% to 44%

    http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MOScout-Poll-9.20.pdf

  15. Sean says:

    Frank, thanks so much for your posts. I believe it really shows this one is going down to the wire.

    I’d be interested in seeing your graphs. As to trying to put them up on HHR, I believe you would have to send them to Dave Wissing and maybe he’d put them up. Otherwise, you could put them on your own website, and link to that website. If anyone else knows anything better, feel free to jive in.

  16. jason says:

    ” I have outed Robbie.”

    Sorry, but I was first. As soon as I read the brokered convention/Jeb Bush nonsense I pegged him for a troll.

  17. Todd McCain says:

    Akin could actually win this race.

  18. Wobbles says:

    This is a disaster.

    My whole reason for existence has been shattered.

    Is there a parody suicide hotline?

  19. pitchaboy says:

    SWhat outed Robbie is depressing polling news for Obama.
    1. Pollsters have been caught with their hand in the cookie jar of polling D plus infinity to get desired results and are therefore forced to rectify.
    2. RAS swing stage must bring tears to Robbie given the fact that despite MI, PA and NM, O is below 50, meaning his JA in the swing states that matter are like around 45.

  20. RottiLargo says:

    Pretty good odds I’ll be unemployed by the end of the day…then again, about half of the Board of Directors will leave with me.

    May have a job opportunity with another group anyway, but I would hate to abandon the RTW issue.

  21. jason says:

    ” Chilenski Strategies ”

    I hope they are more legitimate than JPI.

    Jason Polling Inc.

  22. Ray says:

    Did anyone post this from Rasmussen?

    51% trust Romney more on the Economy
    44% trust Obama more

    Struck me as huge. Romney is POTUS 45 with those #s if that holds.

  23. RottiLargo says:

    I will never support Akin.

    You really want him in the Senate for 6 years, giving the Dems soundbites to use against our side?

    No thanks.

  24. Wobbles says:

    ” Ok. Robbie broke. Move on. He bores me.”

    Easy for you to say.

    I is screwed.

  25. michael corleone says:

    #24

    That’s ridiculous. Once (and if) elected they are not going to worry about some junior Senator from Mo.

  26. Sean says:

    Akin would be another Jesse Helms. I mean it’s like having Franken with the Dems. Do I think it would make a huge difference? No.

    But my thought is that Akin’s fate will be similar to Allen’s last time. He may make it closer, but in the end I believe he loses.

  27. jason says:

    I prefer Akin if only for the SCOTUS issue if Obama wins.

    Also if it gives R a majority in the Senate I can live with stupid sound bites for 6 years.

  28. Ron Burgundy says:

    Akin will win. MO will not reelect McCaskill, what she had done in DC is far worse than anything Akin said. While Akin may have made a clumsy comment, it has been taken out of context and portrayed as something clearly that it was not. MO voters are smart enought to figure it out. McCaskill will be sent packing.

  29. MSM says:

    ” 51% trust Romney more on the Economy
    44% trust Obama more”

    Hey, OBAMA IS MORE LIKEABLE.

    Don’t you pay attention to us??????

  30. Todd McCain says:

    It’s actually quite impressive what Akin has done.

    With literally no resources, he has managed to keep his campaign competitive.

    I wouldnt be surprised to see the NRSC jump in during the last two weeks.

  31. Ron Burgundy says:

    Romney will win big in MO and pull Akin accross with him.

  32. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    24.RottiLargo says:
    September 28, 2012 at 11:47 am
    I will never support Akin.

    You really want him in the Senate for 6 years, giving the Dems soundbites to use against our side?

    No thanks

    Music Man,
    You are like a 2012 Disney Channel musical. You are definitely not a Rodger & Hammerstein timeless masterpiece.
    Republicans HAD to come out strongly against Akin’s comments when it happened. That was 5 weeks ago. He stayed in the race. The voters of MO have 2 choices, the Mouth that Roared, or the Mouth That Swallows Whatever Obama Gives her.
    I hope for an Akin victory, and will send money to Jim Demints Senate Conservatives Fund.

  33. jason says:

    “While Akin may have made a clumsy comment, it has been taken out of context and portrayed as something clearly that it was not. ”

    Huh, hello?

    Let’s not get carried away here.

    Clumsy? Out of context?

    “Okay, so if an abortion can be considered in the case of, say, tubal pregnancy or something like that, what about in the case of rape? Should it be legal or not?”

    Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.):

    “It seems to me, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.

  34. John says:

    Not so good economic news out today….

    Actual consumer spending “stagnates” after rising only 1% after adjusted for inflation.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-28/consumer-spending-in-u-s-stagnates.html

    Real personal income declines 3% after adjusting for inflation and deducting taxes.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/us-consumer-spending-rose-05-percent-driven-up-by-higher-gas-prices-income-barely-grew/2012/09/28/c47051aa-0969-11e2-9eea-333857f6a7bd_story.html
    http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-09/us-real-household-income-declines-capital-economics.aspx?storyid=177547

    Chicago PMI falls (manufacting in the Chicago area)

    Michigan Sentiment retreats to a lower level from the beginning of September.

    This news comes a day after the second quarter GDP is revised down to 1.25% and durable goods falls through the basement.

    Not good. Not good at all.

  35. jason says:

    I already said I would vote for the bastard because of the big picture, but I am not giving him a pass on that comment.

    It’s beyond stupid.

  36. Walt says:

    REPOST from last thread

    (due to fact that none of you beeches alerted to a new thread):

    Bill Aires and Pastor Wright came up with the slogan “FORWARD”.

    It stands for:

    F-avoring

    O-bama’s

    R-eelection,

    W-anting

    A-merica’s

    R-adical

    D-estruction

    They were going to use:

    “The G-D Damn Chickens Have Come Home to Roost!”

    But “TGDCHCHTR” did not spell anything.

    Even when they tried adding the initials for “I’ll Give You A Free Friggin’ Obama Phone”

  37. MSM says:

    ” Not so good economic news out today….”

    Hey, turkey, get with it…

    We are talking about Mitt’s taxes…

  38. Robbie says:

    Obama’s Jewish support down to 65% according to latest poll…

    Off 13% from 2008…

    http://www.jpost.com/USPresidentialrace/Article.aspx?id=286414

    May make a difference in a couple states…

  39. John says:

    New UPI poll out…
    Obama 48 Romney 46

    I’m checking for the internals.

  40. DW says:

    People still talking here about the VA Suffolk poll. I had posted this on the thread below:

    More regarding the VA Suffolk poll…going back in time for comparison.

    Yesterday they had it
    Romney 44
    Obama 46

    In Early Oct, 2008, they had it:

    Obama 51 [results: 53] -2
    McCain 39 [results: 46] -7

    So in the end, Suffolk’s poll ended up with most of the undecideds going to McCain.

    So if the undecideds break the same way this time around, based on the Suffolk poll the end result will be:

    Romney 51
    Obama 48

  41. DW says:

    40 – More signs of movement to ROmney. Their last poll was Obama +3

  42. John says:

    #38 – it’s Mr. John to you.

  43. DW says:

    Breaking

    AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP

    VA

    Romney 47
    Obama 49

    NH

    ROmney 45
    Obama 50

    Considering how left leaning this pollster has always been, not bad results.

  44. Walt says:

    Under HOBO bylaws (Article 6, paragraph 3, subsection 2) I am REQUIRED to also repost this:

    (it you read it on the last thread just skip it)
    ________________________________
    227.So…

    Robbie WAS at one time a Republican.

    Believed apparently in Republican principles of small government, strong national defense, lower taxes, value of a free enterprise system, less governnent interference in people’s lives, etc.

    Robbie was a Romney supporter because of he espouses those Republican values.

    Does not think Romney has run a good campaign.

    Now will vote for YoMama because Romney has not run the kind of campaign Robbie wishes he would run.

    And yet YoMama is OPPOSED to all Rebublican values. And YoMama has a terrible 4 year track record on economy, foreign affairs, and taking stances on social issues that are the antithesis of Republican values.

    But Robbie has now realized that he must vote for YoMama. Because YoMama is running a good, divide America, anti-Republican values campaign.

    Robbie perhaps at one time supported Romney because he felt Romney would be the weakest candidate to go head to head with YoMama, easier for YoMama to attack and define negatively with class warfare. And with RomneyCare in MA would defuse the ObamaCare issue.

    GOT IT! GOOD THINKING! SOUND LOGIC!

    Thanks, Robbie, for making this all perfectly clear.

    Let me give you the email address for Kim from Ohio.

    Perfect pair regarding the degree of thought process.

    You are so full of excrement, and have a brain that also overflows with it.

    Truly a SFB.

    I hope you feel better about your coming out. The truth will set you free. Even if it did validate all the people here at HHR who ID-ed you as a troll. Some here actully thought that you were a true believer who had a terribly bad case of wobbly knees.

    But you still are a SFB person. Your faulty logic is a perfect example of the mindset of so many misguided YoMama supporters.

    FORWARD! (the cliff is just around the corner…)

  45. jason says:

    Obama’s Jewish support down to 65%.

    That could make a difference in FL.

    http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2012/09/27/us/27voters2.html

  46. Tim B says:

    Maybe I’m overestimating him, but I think Johnson has a chance at 1% even. Goode though, absolutely not.

  47. Wobbles says:

    I am unemployed today given Ladivadobbie’s implosion.

  48. jason says:

    I am posting the same stuff as Robbie with the same conclusion?

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOO….

  49. Polaris says:

    Anyone have the internals for Maine?

    The 2008 and 2004 numbers for Maine (exit polls were):

    2008:
    Obama 58/McCain 40
    DRI: 35D/26R/39I

    2004:
    Kerry 54/Bush 45
    DRI: 31D/30R/38U

    -Polaris

  50. John says:

    Regarding the UPI/CVoter poll – Romney picks up 2 points over Obama since their last survey and Obama’s fell from the 50% mark down to 48% – a good sign.
    The only thing I could pull out of the internals was that it interviewed 1,000 adult, 848 adult interviews, 733 likely voters and then based their data was weighted to the “known demographic profile”. – “known demographic profile” – whatever that means.

  51. DW says:

    oh wow…look at the internals of those ARG polls!

    DRI 39/36/25

    D+3. GOP should be able to do much better than that!

    Plus they have 20% AA in this poll. And they go 93/3 for Obama.

  52. DW says:

    53 – that was VA of course.

  53. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News – Single gun shot fired at Democrat Troll Headquarters…Developing…

  54. Walt says:

    Wobbles,

    Sorry for your job loss.

    But the good news is that the Dept. of Labor will hide your job loss and put it in the stack with the other invisible schmucks.

    They will have you in the stats when they release the report at the end of November.

    And they say it is real easy if you want to go down and sign up for SS Diaability.

  55. DW says:

    DRI on the NH poll was 30/30/40

  56. DW says:

    NC early ballots now over 10,500

    Party Reg
    Dem 30.9%
    Rep 50.2%
    None/Oth 19.0%
    Age
    18-29 7.7%
    30-44 10.2%
    45-59 18.6%
    60+ 63.4%
    Race
    White 87.4%
    Black 8.8%
    Other/None 3.8%
    Gender
    Female 55.9%
    Male 43.4%
    Unknown 0.7%

  57. DW says:

    those early NC numbers keep getting stronger for the GOP

  58. Bobby says:

    Romney seems to be moving back up…opening a big opportunity on Wednesday.

  59. Bitterlaw says:

    Was Transparent Dem Troll involved in the shooting at Democrat Troll Headquarters?

  60. Hunter says:

    Romney campaigning in PA today…

    Nice…

  61. Polaris says:

    #53 In 2008:

    The topline for VA was Obama 53/McCain 47

    AA Vote was 20%
    DRI: 39D/33R/27I

    In 2004 the AA vote was 21%
    DRI: 35D/39R/26I

    The AA percentage in the ARG poll seems fair, but while D+3 isn’t quite 2008 territory, I still think it’s too rich for VA. VA is still more GOP than the country as a whole. For D+2 national, I would guess R+1 or PUSH for VA.

    -Polaris

  62. John says:

    Michigan poll (if already not previously posted):

    Obama 50
    Romney 46.2

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_MI_0928.pdf

  63. jason says:

    Jews make up only 3.4% in population in FL, but about 5% of the voting population because they vote in higher numbers.

    There were 8.3 million votes in FL in 2008. 5% is 415k votes.

    If Obama loses 15% of that vote that’s roughly 60k votes less for him, and 60k votes more for Romney.

  64. Wobbles says:

    With that, subject to being rehired, I will say goodbye.

  65. DW says:

    I am very heartened by VA polling of late, and am convinced in the end Romney gets it 52/47

  66. Polaris says:

    Everyone,

    Our complaints are finally starting to get through to the national media/attention. Mind you this is still an MSM link with the usual pap about how the polls really are right, but it’s a start.

    http://news.yahoo.com/one-certain-forecast-u-poll-dispute-more-acrimony-051604786.html

    -Polaris

  67. DW says:

    Rasmussen has the GOP gov candidate in Washington state down only a point.

  68. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    , and 60k votes more for Romney.

    Comment by jason

    Only if they vote for him and don’t just stay home

  69. Bitterlaw says:

    Wobbles – take some time. Maybe Cheksux needs a parody.

  70. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    Chaos here – under lockdown. Not sure how many were involved…but our senior manager is more worried about the slippage in 2008 redo narrative.

  71. Wobbles says:

    I am so incompetent.

    I tried to shoot myself and grazed kim instead.

    She will be all right but MD better plan on getting his own sandwich today.

  72. Walt says:

    I heard Robbie decided to come out because of a salary dispute. He wanted more per hour, TDTroll refused.

    Robbie reportedly said to his TD Troll boss:

    “GFY!, I can get a $3/hour raise by being a paid protestor at Republican rallies.”

  73. dinglewoodnorwoodbill says:

    This kind of says it all about the type of errors Romney is making in messaging with his centrist advisers. He fails to draw contrast, as Santorum noted, when voters are faced with voting for an evil they know against somebody who pulls punches and does not adequately contrast, voters will choose more of the same. He needs to right this ship, and time is running short to go after Obama HARD on his failures to provide reasons to vote AGAINST more of the same.

    “This is the central problem of the Romney campaign and its establishment enablers. Rather than enunciating broad conservative principles and remedies with confidence and advancing smart critiques of President Obama and his woeful performance confidently, Romney and the GOP establishment are reduced to playing on the margins. Trying to tweak messaging to slice off a few votes here and there.

    Most voters, who are living their lives for much more than politics and elections, aren’t likely to tune in to nuances.

    Romney may win this critical election — let’s pray he does — but it will be due more to a bad economy, mounting troubles overseas, and the grace of God than to a good strategy, which should be based on rock-solid conservative principles and ideas, and not neutered arguments and finding fault with one’s own.”

    Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/09/advice_for_romney_from_national_reviews_editors.html#ixzz27mYYNiTg

  74. OHIO JOE says:

    “It’s actually quite impressive what Akin has done.” Yup, he stayed calm while the party establishment threw a temper fit. He held his ground, he would not be bullied, and now the party hacks are eating their own shirt. It was knid of fun to watch.

  75. Wobbles says:

    That article is very one sided.

    Obama has a lead of 5-7 points and even bigger in swing states.

    Okayyyy

  76. DW says:

    WA_06

    This is a safe D seat, that voted Obama over McCain 57/41 – but that didn’t stop SUSA from polling it:

    Kilmer (D) 52
    Driscoll (R) 37

    No surprise here.

  77. jason says:

    So Ohio Joe whose fault is it Akin probably threw the election away.

    His or the party establishment?

  78. Walt says:

    72.Chaos here – under lockdown. Not sure how many were involved…but our senior manager is more worried about the slippage in 2008 redo narrative.

    Comment by Transparent Dem Troll

    PRICELESS!!

    I also heard that it could have been worse if Dustin and Melissa had not had their heads down while sleeping at their computer monitors, and if Fladem, June and Proud Obamacon had not taken an extra 10 minutes on their 5 minute smoke break outside.

  79. Bitterlaw says:

    I have been retained by Wobbles. I have asked the police to not charge him as assaulting a parody and/or troll is not actually a crime.

  80. Polaris says:

    #79 Agreed. I don’t think it was the ‘party establishment’ that put Akin under mind control and made him talk about “justified rape”. Really, Akin opened mouth and inserted shotgun and then refused to let the GOP replace him.

    Maybe Akin pulls it out after all (I highly doubt it) but this SHOULD have been a slam-dunk pickup for the GOP. Akin deserves all the darts being tossed his way.

    -Polaris

  81. MD says:

    Akin is going to lose. Period. Oh and dead ender I was against Specter and Crist. I only mention that because you always bring their names up. You are a complete and total idiot.

  82. Polaris says:

    #80 Makes me wonder if Fladem, June, and Proud Obamacon were doing something other than smoking. Trying to get phone-cam footage….developing hot…

    ;)

    -Polaris

  83. Robbie says:

    4.I have outed Robbie.

    Comment by pitchaboy — September 28, 2012 @ 11:24 am

    You have outed nothing.

  84. MD says:

    Widdle Wobbie

  85. Jeff G. says:

    #79,

    Until election day comes and goes, no one should care. Let’s just hope he somehow wins. We can blame people after Nov. 6.

  86. Tina says:

    Gang, starting to feel a bit better about Camp Romney. I think Benghazi gate is starting to take shape. The surrogates doing the dirty work on the issue for Romney (administration cover up and admin. lying) are hitting the right tone.

    Still think I am right about the final outcome and hope to be wrong.

  87. jason says:

    Akin commits political suicide by making the dumbest and most asinine statement of the campaign, but it’s the “party establishment’s fault” he is threw the seat away.

    I love this logic.

  88. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    Hey Robbie, how are you going to celebrate election night?

    Ask your inflatable Obama doll if you can be the man for a change?

  89. Tina says:

    I remember when we came out against Crist. Remember, how many comments were that he was entitled to the seat.

  90. MD says:

    God will multiply Akin’s money!!!!

  91. Robbie says:

    My name was stolen in the last thread. I didn’t not write that “confession”.

    I’m more than fine with the hate directed at me, byt stealing my name is totally unfair.

    Dave needs to address this issue.

  92. jason says:

    Tina being more optimistic lifts my spirits.

    A couple more good polls and a couple more administration lies and who knows?

  93. jason says:

    94. I agree. I thought it was you. Stealing your handle sucks.

  94. Wobbles says:

    I AM GOING TO LIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  95. rdelbov says:

    NH is now +2R by registration.

    certainly should be closer to +2 or +4R if the mojo is on the R side.

    Basically the ARG polls shows an even pool of voters or about a 2R change from 2008. That’s like +6D nationally.

    So move it a few % and the race is tied.

    Or one can argue that Romney is surging compared to other D polls in NH

  96. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    @94 Fake Robbie has balls. You have alot to learn from him.

  97. Polaris says:

    #92 Crist…*there’s* a piece of work. Going around Fla campaigning openly for Obama.

    I remember when some (Chekote and Frum take a bow) called him the future of the GOP.

    Gack.

    -Polaris

  98. Robbie says:

    213.I’ve come to the conclusion that I will never convince any of you that I was, in fact, a Republican.

    Simple truth is that I was, at one time, a Romney supporter but I’m not anymore.

    I don’t think Romney can win and will probably vote in this election for Obama given how upset I am that Romney’s campaign does not listen to me.

    That’s why I’m so negative and pretend to hope Romney wins.

    In my estimation he has no chance and therefore I am so negative and will vote for Obama.

    There, I’ve said it!

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 11:13 am

    I did not write a word of this. Whoever did so, should be ashamed. This is not fair.

  99. markmartinreport says:

    Analysts: Don’t Believe the Political Polls

    Recent polls show President Barack Obama with a sizeable lead over Republican contender Mitt Romney in key swing states.
    But skeptics say the polls results are being skewed by the media to form inaccurate conclusions.

    Experts like veteran pollster Dick Morris, former Bush advisor Karl Rove, and CBN News Political Analyst John Waage say “not so fast.”

    “Some of the state by state polls have shown a jump for Obama over Romney at a time when they were close. But a lot of people are saying, ‘Wait a minute.’ These polls are having a huge sampling, some say an oversampling of Democrats,” Waage explained.

    Democratic voter turnout was historically high four years ago, but Waage says these days, pollsters are still using models for states like Ohio and fForida based on 2008 numbers.

    Click play to watch Mark Martin’s report followed by more insight from CBN News Chief Political Correspondent David Brody.

    “There’s no real indication that the turnout from Democrats is going to be that high this election,” he said. “So if you’re oversampling Democrats, these polls are going to be skewed way off toward the president and away from Mitt Romney.”

    “The enthusiasm level is measured on things compared to 2008, where President Obama had unprecedented support from young people, from African Americans, from women voters. Those kinds of groups,” Waage continued. “The turnout should be lower this time because there’s disillusionment, a high unemployment in some of the urban African-American areas. Unemployment nationally is still bad after three-and-a-half years, and so that can’t be good for the women’s vote.”

    Breitbart.com columnist Mike Flyyn said, over the years, he hasn’t bought into the argument that the polls are wrong. But he feels this year is different.

    “The overwhelming majority of media polling this election employ such absurd assumptions about turnout this November that they not only misrepresent the presidential race, they are actively distorting it. I also believe it is intentional,” he wrote in a recent post.

    Some in the media are even writing columns that Romney should throw in the towel.

    Waage says that’s ridiculous.

    “We haven’t even had a debate yet. There are going to be three presidential and vice presidential debates. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves here,” Waage said. “Romney may be a bit behind in some of these key states, but it’s very close at the national level.”

    “Give the voters time to take a look at both candidates competing against each other and see what they want to do,” he added.

  100. MD says:

    I was told by a semi-regular here that Rubio wouldn’t win because he wasn’t charismatic enough. I really wonder sometimes.

    At first his run was a long shot. Then Crist imploded and proved himself to be the ultimate pos.

  101. voice of reason says:

    known demographic profile is the liberal pollsters way of saying they adjust for demographics but ignore partisan turnout models.

    They slam conservatives for adjusting their polls for partisan profile but they admit they adjust their polls for demographic profile.

    What does one call that?

  102. Tina says:

    Jason, General Economy, really has helped this week too..

  103. Polaris says:

    My position on stealing handles is well known. In that (if nothing else) you have my sympathies.

    -Polaris

  104. Robbie says:

    99.@94 Fake Robbie has balls. You have alot to learn from him.

    Comment by Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table — September 28, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

    Since you probably stole my name, I think you should be banned.

  105. michael corleone says:

    Great articles by Jen Rubin yesterday and Charles-bring the-Krauthammer about the non-existent Romney campaign.

    He needs to be talking about Libya, and shouting from the rooftops. If he is not prepared to make a campaign issue about foreign policy, he is not prepared to be President.

  106. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    lisab,

    http://pjmedia.com/blog/western-courts-bend-to-islamic-practices/

    Judges’ consideration of Shari‘a when deciding cases may be the most alarming avenue by which Islam influences Western legal systems, but it is not the only one. With increasing regularity, Islamic practices sway the administration of courtrooms, affecting when sessions are held, who must rise, and what attire is permissible. This trend should not be overlooked. Courts that yield to Islamic norms, even in mundane matters, encourage Islamists and cast doubt on the future of equal rights and responsibilities under the law.

  107. Tina says:

    If Romney turns it around, can I take any credit, Jason? Sometimes, those men from MA need a good kick in the arse and a slap in the face.

  108. Bitterlaw says:

    It is getting God-damn annoying with the stealing of names. May I suggest that Mr. Wissing suspend anybody who steals a handle? I also want the same punishment for anybody who lies about their handle being stolen to escape heat for what they really posted. Discuss.

  109. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    Since you probably stole my name, I think you should be banned.

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 12:39 pm

    A completely baseless accusation that you should be ashamed of. I did not and would not do that.

    Dave is welcome to check my IP address.

  110. jason says:

    Robbie is right for once. That is why we have parodies, no need to steal his handle.

  111. John says:

    Update on Ohio’s absentee ballot requests – the D’s are down 8% from their 2008 totals and the R’s are up 4%.

    2008:
    D’s…….337,081
    R’s…….184,634

    Now:
    D’s…….180,700
    R’s…….149,237

  112. DW says:

    At this point in the race, there is no doubt Romney gets all the McCain states.

    Indiana is not in play.

    I am feeling better and better about FL NC and VA.

    All three are currently in the MoE even with samples less than favorable to the GOP.

    That puts us at 248, 22 EVs short. These states are MoE right now:

    IA 6
    CO 9
    OH 18
    NH 4
    NV 6

    Leaning dem currently are
    WI 10
    MI 16

    So we can do this with OH and any other state. Other scenarios are much harder.

  113. Tina says:

    I think NV is in play and Romney can win it.

  114. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    I did not write a word of this. Whoever did so, should be ashamed. This is not fair.

    Comment by Robbie

    That seemed apparent at the time, don’t know why anyone bought into it.

  115. jason says:

    Hey Bitter, if Robbie is not admitting to being a troll does that mean your retainer is worth as much as his disclaimer?

  116. Robbie says:

    218.Ok, Robbie.

    Doesn’t finally getting that out in the open make you feel better? Kinda makes you feel liberated.

    Comment by Phil — September 28, 2012 @ 11:17 am

    Phil,

    I didn’t write one word of that crap in the last thread.

    It’s total sh!t and Dave needs to clean this up.

  117. jason says:

    117. Fooled me. I didn’t completely believe he wasn’t being sarcastic, but I still thought it was him.

  118. Polaris says:

    #104 Hypocrisy.

    Now that said, you can and SHOULD adjust polling to reflect age, sex, ethnicity, etc. That is because a truly random sample is almost always going to be borked (for example too many women, not enough younger voters, etc). However, by picking 2008 demographics for some of these, they are skewing the poll towards dems without openly doing so. Likewise if you pick some area codes over others you are doing the same thing.

    This is why I call them hypocrits. They ARE weighing for a 2008 electorate but won’t admit it (excelt LM who did in Hugh Hewitt).

    -Polaris

  119. Bitterlaw says:

    jason- WTF! I knew I should have asked to be paid in cash and not food stamps. Damn trolls.

  120. Hunter says:

    Robbie…

    It’s one thing for a person to steal your handle, it’s another to falsely accuse someone of doing so…

    It was me…

    I took it and wrote a confession that SHOULD be, in reality, written by you…

    It’s the first and last time I have stolen a handle…

    I apologize to the board for doing so…

    Will not happen again…

    Doesn’t change the fact that you’re a fraud, Robbie…

  121. jason says:

    ” Since you probably stole my name, I think you should be banned.”

    Let’s ban people who make false accusations.

  122. jason says:

    Ok, Hunter manned up. Nobody is perfect, I would forgive him.

  123. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Too much sourdough bread out in CA. Need some good italian bread to stiffen the HHR spine.

  124. Tina says:

    Hunter, you are an idiot.

  125. Bitterlaw says:

    Is the confession sufficient? I say he needs to ride the Wheel of Sorrows.

  126. jason says:

    ” jason- WTF! I knew I should have asked to be paid in cash and not food stamps. Damn trolls.”

    Well I think you were on the case for at least 19 minutes.

    What does that come to?

  127. DW says:

    Gallup prediction: Unchanged

  128. Polaris says:

    #114 That’s a very positive indicator for Romney. It’s showing good GOP enthusiasm.

    Here is a point that has been brought up but I don’t think has been discussed enough. In Ohio during 2008, Obama actually got less vote then Kerry did in 2004. The reason Obama won Ohio (fairly handily) was because McCain TANKED and the GOP vote declined by a huge number (IIRC about 250,000 votes).

    Now, given the above absentee requests does anything think that Romney won’t at least get close to Bush numbers in Ohio? Does anyone think that Obama will be able to exceed is 2008 vote in Ohio? If not, then Ohio is actually looking very favorable for Romney. The more am looking at the raw numbers the more optimistic I feel about Ohio.

    -Polaris

  129. Hunter says:

    Tina…

    At least I’m not weak kneed…

    I can live with myself admitting to stealing a handle…

    How do you live with yourself?…

  130. MD says:

    Hunter should still be banned for a couple of weeks. We hardly have any rules but that is one we all know. Hunter actually did the impossible – he managed to make widdle look sympathetic.

  131. DW says:

    At least Hunter confessed. The easy thing to do was just walk away knowing Dave W is too busy changing diapers.

  132. Polaris says:

    #131 I agree. Gallup has two HUGE Obama outliers on it. Should swamp any other daily samples for a while.

    -Polaris

  133. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    “Hunter, you are very bad man, very bad, very bad! (wagging one finger at him like Baboo from Seinfeld)

  134. jason says:

    Let’s not overreact. Stealing handles is a rare occurrence I think the last before this was when SusyQue did it a couple months ago.

  135. SusyQue says:

    Janz posted this on last thread. Read it!

    Poll Shows Romney Winning High Water Mark for Libertarian Vote

    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/poll-shows-romney-winning-high-water-mark-for-libertarian-vote/

  136. jason says:

    I think Hunter has to read every Robbie post for a whole month.

    Fate worse than death.

  137. SusyQue says:

    #138…yeah….(:-(

  138. Hunter says:

    Here’s a deal for the stealing…

    I’ll leave it up to Robbie…

    If he wants me to self-ban and not post for 24 hours, would be happy to do so…

  139. MD says:

    I call it like I see it not like I want it to be. If you don’t like it Hunter, GFY and go buy some pom poms you moron.

  140. jason says:

    I can see 20% of libertarians not voting or throwing away their vote on Ron Paul or Gary Johnhson, but Obama????

  141. Tina says:

    Ban should be 2 weeks minimum, or a lifetime, imo. The only rule I have.

  142. Tina says:

    Hunter, you probably stole mine the other day too. You may hate my position on the race and that is fine, but stealing handles is a no-no.

  143. jason says:

    Hunter, since you fooled me, I admit your confession was well written. But you could have signed it Robby and it would still have gotten a rise.

  144. MD says:

    Not a lifetime ban because he owned up to it.

  145. Tina says:

    I live fine.

    Eat steak three times a weak.

    Plenty of limocellos and Opus One.

    I did cut back a bit though when gas got to $4.25.

  146. jason says:

    Wow, I hope Tina does not sit on my jury….

    8)

  147. Polaris says:

    Kudos for hunter to own up, but it shouldn’t have happened in the first place. The problem is that handle-jacking is very easy to do here, very easy to get away with, and very difficult to prove.

    Enough said.

    -Polaris

  148. MD says:

    Tina – I have lost 18 pounds. Actually, need to stop losing weight at this point.

  149. Tom Gordon says:

    Polaris,

    While I want what you wrote to be true, I think someone corrected the Ohio record noting that Obama did, in fact, get more raw votes than Kerry did in Ohio.

  150. Hunter says:

    Right back at you, MD…

    I call it like I see it too…

    You’re weak…

  151. jason says:

    It’s not difficult to prove, that’s why it’s rare.

    - jason

  152. Tina says:

    Jason, did you hear my hospital story from the other day. I was visiting somebody at a SF hospital and got lost. Went to the receptionist to get help. A liberal type of course cuts in front of the line. He complained to the receptionist about CNN playing. He wanted the channel changed to MSLSD. Said that it was better and CNN was too conservative.

  153. Tina says:

    MD, good job. How many months?

  154. MD says:

    You are a moron. A complete nobody. Your next original thought will be your first. Now go buy a skirt with your pom poms.

  155. Wine & Spirits Stores says:

    “Actually, need to stop losing weight at this point.”

    That’s good news.

    We are revising revenue forecasts.

  156. Polaris says:

    #154 I will check it again. If Obama did exceed Kerry it wasn’t by much.

    Let me look at the numbers.

    -Polaris

  157. MD says:

    I hope Hunter isn’t your actual first name. If so, your parents are some cruel people.

  158. Wine & Spirits Stores says:

    157. LOL

  159. Technically Hunter was in the wrong but I despise Wobbie Tingles so much I don’t give a crap

  160. DW says:

    Gallup unchanged

  161. jason says:

    Hmmm…. LOL

  162. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Stoopid frogs digging their own graves.

  163. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Hunter,
    You should self-ban. *winkwink*

    And take those pompoms and shake it in the face of anyone who is already throwing in the towel on Sept 28, 2012.
    yeah, i am looking at you, Doctor!
    (although, I should probably get myself in fightin’ shape first before I start shaking pompoms around!)

  164. Hunter says:

    MD…

    Is that your best shot?…

    You’re weak…

  165. jason says:

    Well JA down 1, I’ll take it.

  166. Tina says:

    No change in Gallup.

    Disapproval up one.

  167. DW says:

    We will have to be patient on Gallup as good Romney days are still coming off, if I recall correctly when the Obama outlier came on. That it is staying the same means decent Romney days are coming on.

  168. jason says:

    I am sure Tina and MD want Romney to win as much as anybody else. If they are more pessimistic than the average person here so be it.

    I wish I was as optimistic as Pitch and others.

  169. Moe Greene says:

    159.MD says:
    September 28, 2012 at 12:59 pm
    You are a moron. A complete nobody. Your next original thought will be your first. Now go buy a skirt with your pom poms.

    Buy me out? No, I buy you out! I have a casino to run, he was bangin’ cocktail waitresses 3 at a time, MD couldn’t get his Grey Goose delivered..

  170. Optimus Prime says:

    Wonder if the Gallup outliers come off about the time Rasmussen goes to LV.

    Could the MSM handle it?

  171. “I am sure Tina and MD want Romney to win as much as anybody else”

    and me even more so. Obama is possibly the worst President we’ve ever had since the back to back disasters of Pierce & Buchanan. A-Hole has no business getting re-elected.

  172. Moe Greene says:

    173.jason says:
    September 28, 2012 at 1:04 pm
    I am sure Tina and MD want Romney to win as much as anybody else. If they are more pessimistic than the average person here so be it.

    -It is one thing to be pessimistic, and at least MD shows his work (if Tina did, I never saw it) and gives his reasons. BUT, to be throwing in the towel before any votes are in, with a full 5 weeks to go, COME ON!

  173. Tina says:

    I said I am going to vote for Romney, like it really matters here in CA. If I am wrong on Election day, I will admit it. And I hope to be wrong.

  174. Tina says:

    I certainly do not make post after post from Politico or NBC bashing Romney, however.

  175. Tom Gordon says:

    NYCmike – is that your “Moe Greene” post?

    One of the great set of lines from the GF!!

  176. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Moe Greene makes some good points!! *winkwink*

  177. Tina says:

    In fact, to borrow from Robbie, my posts for Romney have been more positive than negative.

    My posts toward the Obumbler have been more negative than positive.

  178. DW says:

    Leno: ‘We Wasted Four Years Waiting For Obama To Do Something About The Economy’…

  179. Polaris says:

    #161, #154 You are correct. Obama did exceed Kerry. Obama got 2,933,388 to Kerry’s 2,739,959 in Ohio for a gain of 193,429 votes.

    By contrast, Bush got 2,858,727 in Ohio in 2004 while McCain only managed 2,674,491 in 2008 for a loss of 184,236.

    OK so it’s not as favorable as I said, but if Romney can even got to Bush numbers in Ohio, it *forces* Obama to pretty much match his 2008 turnout in 2012 to win…and based on the early absentee requests I don’t see it happening. I still stand by saying that now that I am seeing some of the early data, I am feeling better about Ohio. Considerably better.

    -Polaris

  180. Tom Gordon says:

    Author gets post of the day!

    Referencing the Pierce/Buchanan Administrations! Nicely played!

    And, so closely following a Moe Greene “I buy you out!” quote. Excellent work.

  181. jason says:

    Leno takes a shot at Obama:

    Jay Leno took some surprising shots at President Obama Thursday night.

    “I love how the politicians capitalize on this kind of thing,” teased Leno. “Like the minute the replacement refs were fired, President Obama said, ‘See, sometimes losing jobs can be a good thing. It’s a good thing.’”

    When the laughter subsided, Leno continued, “A new survey out today shows how much time we waste every day in our lives. For example, we waste seven minutes in line every time we go to get coffee, 28 minutes getting through airport security, four years waiting for Obama to do something about the economy. Every year, we waste a lot. We wasted a lot of time.”

  182. Robbie says:

    Doesn’t change the fact that you’re a fraud, Robbie…

    Comment by Hunter — September 28, 2012 @ 12:45 pm

    It takes balls to call me a fraud since you fradulently wrote under my handle.

    I don’t believe in banning, but you need to learn some maturiry when it comes to handling disagreements about differing opinions.

  183. MD says:

    Rooting for Romney. Pretty obvious he won’t win. I have been through the analysis enough times. Won’t repeat it.

  184. Tina says:

    And I do not need to “show my work” – whatever the phuq that jibberish means No longer in school.

  185. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Tom Gordon,

    Yes, I love how calm Pacino stays for most of that scene, except for when he hits Moe over the head with the financing line! Classic scene, great movie!

  186. MD says:

    It is the only rule we have.

  187. Tina says:

    If Robbie decides no punishment, then Judge Tina supports it.

  188. ” but you need to learn some maturiry when it comes to handling disagreements about differing opinions.”

    does anyone else find this ironic coming from a guy who resorted to calling me a racist stereotypical nickname?

  189. voice of reason says:

    Polaris:

    Nice report on the Ohio early vote. Do you have a report on Iowa?

    And what does IIRC stand for?

  190. Tina says:

    Jason, can we have some video links. I like Jay better than the NY fraud that looks like a child molestor.

  191. Polaris says:

    #171 Not a suprise. I am not virtually certain that my outlier hypothesis is right. Gallup was tied on Monday. We say the first 3% gain on Tuesday, and the second on Weds.

    That means we should see the outliers roll off on Tues and Weds of next week or about a day or two after Gallup goes to his LV model. If what happens is what I suspect will happen in Gallup, some MSM outlets will go into meltdown mode.

    -Polaris

  192. Polaris says:

    #196 I meant to say that “I am NOW virtually certain the outlier hypothesis is right”

  193. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    “Pretty obvious he won’t win”

    Obvious? Is that Hunter stealing another handle!!?? He must be trying to incite a riot. MD would never write that adjective on Sept 28th, would he??

    Sept 28th, obviously???

  194. DW says:

    184 – and don’t forget that reports are in OH that Romney’s GOTV machine is well ahead of 2004 numbers.

  195. Polaris says:

    #194 IIRC==If I Recall Correctly

    -Polaris

  196. moon doggie says:

    The worst part of France’s 75% tax is that they’ll probably move here. Hey Cory, is there room in Quebec and enough showers?

  197. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Was “obvious” an adjective in that sentence?

  198. I will say that though I am on the doomsayer column, Romney’s GOTV reports are very encouraging

  199. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    “enough showers”

    -They shower?

  200. Tom Gordon says:

    I’m your older brother, Mike, and I was stepped over.

    I can handle things! I’m smart! Not like everybody says! Like dumb! I’m smart and I want respect!

  201. Tina says:

    I could poll on Election Day – afternoon – and say Romney will win – much like Zogby was polling in 2004 the day of.

  202. Polaris says:

    #204 Very rarely.

    -Polaris

  203. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Hey Cory, is there room in Quebec and enough showers?

    Comment by moon doggie — September 28, 2012 @ 1:15 pm

    No problem.
    The froggy’s shower about once a month anyway, if then.

  204. Robbie says:

    does anyone else find this ironic coming from a guy who resorted to calling me a racist stereotypical nickname?

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — September 28, 2012 @ 1:12 pm

    Yeah, let’s rehash that for a moment. I called you Pepe once after months and months of you deriding my name.

    I routinely call people I know Pepe when I think their views stink, as in Pepe le Pew.

    I understand why you took offense to it and I apologized later in thread. If you want to hold one, single comment against me forever, that’s your decision.

  205. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    Oh Robbie, I’m patiently waiting for my apology.

    I’ll just go get a Brazilian on my rear so you can kiss my butt without scratching your delicate beta-male Obama-loving liberal whine-hole.

    Because that’s the kind of guy I am.

  206. GF says:

    2008:
    Total votes; 5,721,815
    Winning Margin: 262,224 (4.58%)

    D: 51.38% 2,940,044
    R: 46.80% 2,677,820
    Oth: 1.82% 103,951

    2004:
    Total Votes: 5,627,908
    Wining Margin: 118,601 (2.11%)

    D: 48.71% 2,741,167
    R: 50.81% 2,859,768
    Oth: 0.48% 26,973

    ’08 saw a gain of about 98K votes, but the 3rd party votes increased similarly (actually, only about 77K, but not that far off). It doesn’t really matter if the new voters were all hyped up by Obama (young and black voters who usually didn’t make it out in other elections?), just count the switch between Bush/McCain and Kerry Obama.

    Bush -> McCain: -182K
    Kerry -> Obama: +199K

    Again, pretty close to one another. Some Bush voters may have stayed home or just flat out voted 3rd party (we all know some people who did that). With population growth slowing down in OH (lost 2 House seats), the raw vote should remain rather stable. Might increase, but if people are not happy about the choices, it could dip slightly. Regardless, Mitt does not necessraily need to flip about 100,000 Obama voters; he need only win back 2/3 of those who suddenly went 3rd party last time and then flip roughly 70-75K Obama voters.

    I think that it can be done. Dificult, but quite possible.

  207. Robbie says:

    211.Oh Robbie, I’m patiently waiting for my apology.

    I’ll just go get a Brazilian on my rear so you can kiss my butt without scratching your delicate beta-male Obama-loving liberal whine-hole.

    Because that’s the kind of guy I am.

    Comment by Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table — September 28, 2012 @ 1:18 pm

    I’m sorry.

  208. If you want to hold one, single comment against me forever, that’s your decision.

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 1:18 pm

    make that 2 comments prick:

    Even though election night will be painful, I’ll be here to say I told you so.

    Comment by Robbie — March 3, 2012 @ 12:24 pm

  209. Tina says:

    Robbie, maybe you can post more positive comments about Romney. Author, maybe you can forgive Robbie for his offense?
    And start a re-set?

  210. “Author, maybe you can forgive Robbie for his offense? And start a re-set?”

    sorry, Fat Chance on that one

  211. Tina says:

    MFG,in the house?

  212. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Poor Fredo. My friend named his dog Fredo. He lives in Florida, and he has a pool in the backyard. The dog loves to swim, but it is so small, it can’t get out of the pool on its own. He tells me at least once a week he finds it in the pool, exhausted, but still swimming, waiting for him to get home and get him out.

  213. Tina says:

    Sorry, I tried.

  214. GF says:

    Polaris, I missed your post whilst typing mine, but I think our points overlap, no?

  215. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    217.MFG,in the house?

    Comment by Tina

    The shadow knows~~~~:smile:

  216. Greymarch says:

    In that Suffolk VA poll, a vast majority of voters (it was like 45% to 15%), feel that Obama will win the debates against Romney. That’s fantastic news for Romney! The debates are not about who won or lost, the debates are about beating expectations, and thus making voters feel that a candidate did better than they thought the candidate would do.

    If expectations are so low for Romney in the debates, it begs the question…what strategy does Romney take into the debates? Does Romney mercilessly attack Obama, like many conservatives want? Or does Romney try be humble, warm and likeable, which destroys the negative stereotype put on him by the MSM?

  217. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    I’m sorry.

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 1:19 pm

    Apology accepted, bitch.

  218. Tina says:

    I think Romney needs to be competent and “introduce” himself to the American public.

  219. Polaris says:

    #220 Pretty much. Basically if Romney can get Bush-like numbers in Ohio, he probably wins it, and that doesn’t require much in the way of Obama voters changing their mind.

    -Polaris

  220. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Was “obvious” an adjective in that sentence?

    -Anyone on this question? It’s killing me not knowing.

  221. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    188.MD says:
    September 28, 2012 at 1:10 pm
    Rooting for Romney. Pretty obvious he won’t win. I have been through the analysis enough times. Won’t repeat it.

    -This is the comment I was referring to about “obvious”.

  222. Robbie says:

    216.“Author, maybe you can forgive Robbie for his offense? And start a re-set?”

    sorry, Fat Chance on that one

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — September 28, 2012 @ 1:20 pm

    That’s understandable. You have the moral high ground because you’ve never mocked me with nicknames like Liddle Wobbie or Wobbie Tingles.

  223. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    That’s understandable. You have the moral high ground because you’ve never mocked me with nicknames like Liddle Wobbie or Wobbie Tingles.

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 1:32 pm

    He has the moral high ground because he didn’t resort to racist taunts as you did.

  224. Robbie says:

    He has the moral high ground because he didn’t resort to racist taunts as you did.

    Comment by Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table — September 28, 2012 @ 1:51 pm

    Baloney. I never resorted to racist taunts.

  225. Jayson says:

    I’ve not been very lucky finding good arguments for the single election day concept. Could you please clue me in on the best arguments for a “single election day,” as opposed to “early voting” and “absentee voting”? If you can, I’d appreciate the strongest arguments first. Thanks.

  226. Michelle Obama vs the DNC buffet table says:

    Baloney. I never resorted to racist taunts.

    Comment by Robbie — September 28, 2012 @ 2:01 pm

    Calling a Hispanic man “Pepe” when his name is not “Pepe” is most certainly a racist taunt.

  227. GremlinBoy says:

    Scott Rasmussen has said that if the Swing State Tracking Poll, at election time, has Mitt at least in a tie with Obama–in Scott’s poll, I assume–that Mitt will win the election. Has anyone heard–is Ras still standing by that position?