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Obama’s Leads Drop in FL and VA, Two New National Polls

I can’t be too upset about since the Orioles got to play them over the weekend, but has any Major League Baseball laid as big an egg as the Boston Red Sox have this year, especially over the last five games in being swept by the Orioles and already dropping two to the Yankees? The Orioles only hope of an AL East crown (actually a one-game playoff for the division title) is for the Red Sox to muster up something and beat the Yankees tonight….

This morning’s big poll comes from Marist College, who gives us new numbers for the states of Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

PRESIDENT – OHIO (Marist)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 43%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Marist)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 52%
Connie Mack (R) 41%

US SENATE – VIRGINIA (Marist)
Tim Kaine (D) 49%
George Allen (R) 44%

US SENATE – OHIO (Marist)
Sherrod Brown (D-inc) 50%
Josh Mandel (R) 41%

All three polls were done September 30-October 1, among 890 likely voters in FL, 969 likely voters in VA, and 931 likely voters in OH. Meanwhile on the national level, a new poll from National Journal shows the presidential race in a dead-heat tie going into tonight’s debates.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (National Journal)
Mitt Romney (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%

This poll was done September 27-30 among likely voters. National Public Radio, on the other hand, is claims Obama holds a 7% lead.

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (NPR)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%

This poll was done September 26-30 among 800 likely voters. Yes, apparently now our tax money is paying for polls….

Last night I received a call (albeit automated) from David Copperfield (yes, the magician) telling me to vote in favor of the expanded gambling in Maryland. Frankly, the fact that the Washington Redskins are in favor of it is reason enough to vote against it. It just seems immoral to be on the same side of the Washington Redskins on anything….

Posted by Dave at 7:21 am
Filed under: General | Comments (337)

337 Responses to “Obama’s Leads Drop in FL and VA, Two New National Polls”

  1. Bitterlaw says:

    First

  2. Bitterlaw says:

    Why aren’t you watching the debate? Are you going skirt shopping?*

    *That was for the men, not Tina.

  3. Rockefeller Republican says:

    Romney will do well tonight. He wins just by sharing the same stage as our prez…His comportment and record as a proven leader will contrast nicely with the incumbent.

    So you negative nellies and nervous nabobs need to grow a pair!

    Git w/ Mitt!

  4. Bitterlaw says:

    I watched the video. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  5. RottiLargo says:

    On the road to DC for a job interview.
    Wish me luck!

  6. Looking at the RCP AVG, it’s not so much that Obama’s support has gone down, it’s that Mitt’s has gone up. Obama has gone from 49.3% to 48.9%. Romney has gone up from 44.6% to 46.1%.

  7. Tim says:

    Ohio looks pretty brutal, still. Every day, for the next five weeks, the Romney campaign needs for someone of note to appear there, about every day.

  8. Tim says:

    And, Mack needs to close that gap, too. If Nelson wins big, he could actually pull the President across the finish line.

  9. Tina says:

    Good Luck, Jul.

  10. @8 Mack ain’t closing no gap. His campaign has been pathetic.

  11. Frank says:

    I won’t be watching the debate. I will be watching Supernatural.

    Frank

  12. RottiLargo says:

    Thanks, Tina!

    Frank,

    Good choice.

  13. Frank says:

    The Ipsos/Reuters poll is getting crazy. It went from 50-44 to 49-43 to 48-42 and now stands at 46-41.

    Go figure.

    Frank

  14. EML says:

    RCP is now Obama +2.8. I thought they had the bogus Zogby poll on there, but it’s gone now. Gallup going to LVs should drop Obama’s lead another half point at least.

  15. Bitterlaw says:

    Good luck, Jul. There is no better way for you to prove you are not part of The Establishment than to have a job in DC.

  16. RottiLargo says:

    Just crossed the Mason-Dixon

    Good to be back in the South, y’all ;)

  17. RottiLargo says:

    Bitter,

    The job would be in PA. SEPA Regional Director for one of the big conservative groups.

  18. Tina says:

    Funny, how the rage used to be Zogby polls. Now,Zogby buries his polling under JZ Analytics.

  19. Hunter says:

    Going to “DebateFest” tonight since I’m a grad of the business school at DU…

    Will be pure comedy outside…Can’t wait…

  20. Tina says:

    Frank, make sure your Ras update is accurate. Yesterday, you almost made me write – it’s over – Romney sucks, etc.

    I know Ras did something online with their data, so I am not upset with you.

  21. Frank says:

    Tina,

    … and JZ results are always outliers.

    Frank

  22. Frank says:

    Tina,

    I was panicking too. I am glad that somebody corrected me quickly. I was searching the building for a rope.

    Frank

  23. EML says:

    Marist poll

    FL: 37D 32R 31I
    2008: 37D 34R 29I

    VA: 33D 30R 37I
    2008: 39D 33R 27I

    OH: 36D 31R 33I
    2008: 39D 31R 30I

    FL goes from D+3 in 2008 to D+5 now.
    In VA, Ds and Rs have both dropped, Is up 10 points.
    Same in OH, number of Republicans have not gone up since 2008.

    Dubious at best.

  24. Hunter says:

    Ha ha ha…

  25. Tina says:

    Frank, since I came to this site in 2004, I have always tossed any online poll. I pay no attention to Zogby either.

  26. Jeff P says:

    What is the possibility that RAS use a plus R ID? If the numbers keep coming R advantage. He changed ID every week in Oct. 2008.

  27. Tina says:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/02/voter-registration-slumps-obama-romney

    I think this was posted – of course it is 2008 all over again- not.

  28. Emerica says:

    Rand Paul on the daily show tonight.

  29. EML says:

    Marist has Obama winning Democrats in OH 95-2 (2008 was 89-10).

    Romney up with independents in VA and FL, but not OH.

  30. Hunter says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/us/politics/obama-outspending-romney-on-tv-ads.html?_r=0

    Obama outspending Romney on ads…

    And the polls tighten…

    Yup…

    It’s over…

  31. Bobby says:

    Jul,

    Where you interviewing? Good luck though.

  32. Scott says:

    The NPR Poll was taken by Democracy Corp.,a Democrat polling co. It is a D+7 poll.

  33. rdelbov says:

    Marist/NBC has that ability to (along with Quinnie and PPP) to find really liberal Ds & indies. Certainly the case in these polls. Ditto for GOP party support as other polls show more R loyalty in 2012 then D loyalty.

    Clearly Outlier in OH.

    Not enough partisan ID movement. Overall these polls are a wash.

    If KOS/PPP shows a 4% national shift in party ID how can Marist polling OH, VA and FL show none?

    Still on a high about National Journal poll. Its still not showing enough party shift but clearly Romney is holding the GOP vote and indies are trending R.

    NPR poll is a waste of taxpayer money.

  34. Tom Gordon says:

    More dopey state polls to ignore. That said, it looks like the media are having a hard time to hide Obama’s decline.

    One can sense the media narrative of “the comeback” or “Romney’s Big Mo” beginning to form.

    I fully expect we’ll see some red polls by next week.

  35. Tom Gordon says:

    If Romney plays it a bit safe tonight and isn’t an attack dog, that probably means his internals look good.

    We all know that Romney can be pretty tough in debates when he needs to make up a lot of ground.

    His style tonight should tell us more about the state of the race than anything else.

  36. Scott says:

    IMHO, Romney will take Virginia,No. Carolina and Florida by 2-5% in each State.
    He has to get one State in the MidWest from Ohio,Wisconsin,Michigan or Penn(which is probably a lost cause).
    Which one should the Romney team concentrate on?
    My vote is Wisconsin.

  37. Jeff P says:

    #37 yes I will keep that in mind.

  38. Scott says:

    ADP Jobs’ Report printed at +163,000 new jobs in September. This was down from August by about 40,000,but above expectations of about 150,000.
    The rule of thumb is to take 60% of the ADP number to determine the number the Dept. of Labor will say on Friday. So,on Friday,expect about a 100,000 jobs number.

  39. Hunter says:

    Scott…

    Thanks…

    I read somewhere recently that the correlation, in most recent months, was closer to 90%…

    Forecasted vs. Actual…

    Last month not withstanding…

  40. Todd McCain says:

    If we lose Ohio, Romney needs to sweep the battlegrounds — possible.

    Romney wins NC, VA and FLA.

    CO, IA and NV are dead heats.

  41. Rasmussen

    Just 17% View Debates as Very Important to How They Will Vote

  42. Sy says:

    #43

    CO and IA maybe but not NV. Every single Mormon in Nevada and distant cousins in Utah has to vote for Mitt for him to have a shot in Nevada.

  43. Tom Gordon says:

    Hmm. In a dead-heat election, I think 17% is a very big number.

  44. EML says:

    42

    May
    ADP +133,000
    DOL +69,000

    June
    ADP +176,000
    DOL +80,000

    July
    ADP +156,000
    DOL +163,000

    August
    ADP +201,000
    DOL +96,000

    Except for July, the ADP number has been double the Department of Labor number. I’d expect Friday’s jobs report to be no better than +90,000.

  45. Scott says:

    #43- TM
    Have you completely written off the other MidWest States?

  46. OHIO JOE says:

    “Marist has Obama winning Democrats in OH 95-2 (2008 was 89-10).” If this is the case, a lot of Conservative Dems in Ohio have officially joined the GOP and thus the Registers Republicans will have no trouble surpassin the Dems on Election day.

  47. Scott says:

    #47- EML
    ADP says that 4,000 manufacturing jobs were created in September. That leaves Obama short 996,000 manufacturing jobs from now until he departs in January,2013!

  48. unskewedpolls.com’s avg has gone from R+7 to R+3, are they starting to fear their credibility?

  49. Frank says:

    31.
    Rasmussen:

    (R/D) D +3.5 or D +3

    2008: 01-Oct/44%/51%/-7%
    2012: 01-Oct/47%/48%/-3%

    Aug,Sept & October trends (no leaners)

    02-Oct/46%/47%/-1%
    01-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
    30-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
    29-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    27-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    26-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    25-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    24-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    23-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    22-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    21-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    20-Sep/45%/47%/-2%
    19-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    18-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    17-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    16-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    15-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    14-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    13-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    12-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    11-Sep/45%/48%/-3%
    10-Sep/45%/50%/-5%
    09-Sep/45%/49%/-4%
    08-Sep/44%/46%/-2%
    07-Sep/46%/45%/+1%
    06-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    05-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    02-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    01-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    31-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    30-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    29-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    28-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    27-Aug/44%/47%/-3%
    26-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    25-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    24-Aug/46%/45%/+1%
    23-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    22-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    21-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    20-Aug/44%/43%/+1%
    19-Aug/43%/45%/-2%
    18-Aug/44%/46%/-2%
    17-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    16-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    15-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    14-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    13-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    12-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    11-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    10-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    09-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    08-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    07-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    06-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    05-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    04-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    03-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    02-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    01-Aug/47%/44%/+3%

    August & September trends (with leaners)

    THE OUTLIER HAS GONE.

    02-Oct/47%/48%/-1%
    01-Oct/47%/50%/-3%
    30-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    29-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    28-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    27-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    26-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    25-Sep/47%/47%/+0%
    24-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    23-Sep/48%/48%/-1%
    22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
    21-Sep/46%/49%/-3%
    20-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    19-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    18-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    17-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    16-Sep/48%/49%/-1%
    15-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
    13-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    12-Sep/48%/47%/+1%
    11-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    10-Sep/46%/50%/-4%
    09-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    08-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    07-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    06-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    05-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    04-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    03-Sep/50%/46%/+4%
    02-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    31-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    30-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    29-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    27-Aug/45%/49%/-4%
    26-Aug/46%/49%/-3%
    25-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    24-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    23-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    22-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    21-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    20-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    19-Aug/46%/47%/-1%
    18-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    17-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    16-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    15-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    14-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    13-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    12-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    11-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    10-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    09-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    08-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    07-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    06-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    05-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    02-Aug/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Aug/50%/45%/+5%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)

    02-Oct/47.43%/48.29%/-0.86%
    01-Oct/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
    30-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
    29-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    28-Sep/47.71%/47.57%/+0.14%
    27-Sep/47.43%/47.71%/-0.29%
    26-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/47.29%/48.29%/-1.00%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    23-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    22-Sep/47.43%/48.57%/-1.14%
    21-Sep/47.57%/48.57%/-1.00%
    20-Sep/48.14%/48.29%/-0.14%
    19-Sep/48.43%/47.86%/+0.57%
    18-Sep/48.43%/47.71%/+0.71%
    17-Sep/48.29%/47.86%/+0.43%
    16-Sep/48.00%/48.14%/-0.14%
    15-Sep/47.86%/48.29%/-0.43%
    14-Sep/47.57%/48.14%/-0.57%
    13-Sep/47.14%/48.00%/-0.86%
    12-Sep/47.14%/47.71%/-0.57%
    11-Sep/47.29%/47.71%/-0.43%
    10-Sep/47.57%/47.43%/+0.14%
    09-Sep/48.14%/46.86%/+1.29%
    08-Sep/48.43%/46.14%/+2.29%
    07-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/48.43%/46.29%/+2.14%
    04-Sep/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
    03-Sep/47.57%/46.57%/+1.00%
    02-Sep/46.86%/47.00%/-0.14%
    01-Sep/46.43%/47.57%/-1.14%
    31-Aug/46.29%/48.00%/-1.71%
    30-Aug/46.43%/48.00%/-1.57%
    29-Aug/46.57%/47.71%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/46.86%/47.29%/-0.43%
    27-Aug/47.00%/47.00%/+0.00%
    26-Aug/47.29%/46.57%/+0.71%
    25-Aug/47.29%/46.29%/+1.00%
    24-Aug/47.29%/46.14%/+1.14%
    23-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    22-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    21-Aug/47.43%/46.14%/+1.29%
    20-Aug/47.86%/46.00%/+1.86%
    19-Aug/48.29%/45.86%/+2.43%
    18-Aug/48.57%/45.57%/+3.00%
    17-Aug/48.71%/45.29%/+3.43%
    16-Aug/49.00%/44.86%/+4.14%
    15-Aug/49.14%/44.57%/+4.57%
    14-Aug/48.86%/44.86%/+4.00%
    13-Aug/48.43%/45.14%/+3.29%
    12-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    11-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    10-Aug/47.86%/45.57%/+2.29%
    09-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    08-Aug/48.00%/45.71%/+2.29%
    07-Aug/48.29%/45.57%/+2.71%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)

    02-Oct/45.86%/47.00%/-1.14%
    01-Oct/45.86%/47.14%/-1.29%
    30-Sep/46.00%/47.00%/-1.00%
    29-Sep/46.00%/46.71%/-0.71%
    28-Sep/46.00%/46.43%/-0.43%
    27-Sep/45.86%/46.29%/-0.43%
    26-Sep/45.71%/46.43%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/45.86%/46.43%/-0.57%
    24-Sep/46.00%/46.14%/-0.14%
    23-Sep/46.14%/45.86%/+0.29%
    22-Sep/46.29%/45.86%/+0.43%
    21-Sep/46.57%/45.86%/+0.71%
    20-Sep/47.00%/45.71%/+1.29%
    19-Sep/47.29%/45.57%/+1.71%
    18-Sep/47.00%/45.57%/+1.43%
    17-Sep/46.71%/46.00%/+0.71%
    16-Sep/46.43%/46.71%/-0.29%
    15-Sep/46.14%/47.14%/-1.00%
    14-Sep/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    13-Sep/45.29%/47.14%/-1.86%
    12-Sep/45.29%/46.86%/-1.57%
    11-Sep/45.71%/46.71%/-1.00%
    10-Sep/46.00%/46.29%/-0.29%
    09-Sep/46.43%/45.43%/+1.00%
    08-Sep/46.86%/44.71%/+2.14%
    07-Sep/47.29%/44.43%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/47.14%/44.29%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/46.86%/44.43%/+2.43%
    04-Sep/46.43%/44.57%/+1.86%
    03-Sep/46.14%/44.86%/+1.29%
    02-Sep/45.57%/45.29%/+0.29%
    01-Sep/45.14%/45.71%/-0.57%
    31-Aug/44.86%/46.00%/-1.14%
    30-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    29-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/45.14%/45.86%/-0.71%
    27-Aug/45.14%/45.43%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/45.14%/44.86%/+0.29%
    25-Aug/44.86%/44.57%/+0.29%
    24-Aug/44.71%/44.57%/+0.14%
    23-Aug/44.57%/44.71%/-0.14%
    22-Aug/44.57%/44.57%/+0.00%
    21-Aug/44.71%/44.43%/+0.29%
    20-Aug/45.00%/44.43%/+0.57%
    19-Aug/45.43%/44.57%/+0.86%

    McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)

    7-Day Rolling Average:

    McCain had crashed AND BURNED.

    02-Oct/44.57%/50.43%/-5.86%
    01-Oct/45.00%/50.14%/-5.14%
    30-Sep/45.14%/49.80%/-4.71%
    29-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    28-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    27-Sep/46.57%/48.71%/-2.14%
    26-Sep/47.00%/48.43%/-1.43%
    25-Sep/47.14%/48.29%/-1.14%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
    23-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
    22-Sep/47.57%/47.71%/-0.14%
    21-Sep/47.86%/47.57%/+0.29%
    20-Sep/48.29%/47.43%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    18-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    17-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    16-Sep/48.57%/47.00%/+1.57%
    15-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    14-Sep/48.43%/47.14%/+1.29%
    13-Sep/48.14%/47.29%/+0.86%
    12-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    11-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    10-Sep/46.86%/48.29%/-1.43%
    09-Sep/46.57%/48.57%/-2.00%
    08-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/45.86%/49.29%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    05-Sep/45.43%/49.43%/-4.00%
    04-Sep/45.29%/49.57%/-4.28%
    03-Sep/45.57%/49.14%/-3.57%
    02-Sep/45.86%/48.57%/-2.71%
    01-Sep/46.00%/47.86%/-1.86%
    31-Aug/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
    30-Aug/45.71%/47.57%/-1.86%
    29-Aug/45.86%/47.43%/-1.57%
    28-Aug/46.00%/47.14%/-1.14%
    27-Aug/45.86%/47.29%/-1.43%
    26-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    25-Aug/45.57%/47.57%/-2.00%
    24-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    23-Aug/45.71%/47.29%/-1.57%
    22-Aug/45.57%/47.00%/-1.43%
    21-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    20-Aug/45.43%/46.86%/-1.43%
    19-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    18-Aug/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    17-Aug/45.57%/47.29%/-1.71%
    16-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%

    Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)

    02-Oct/+2.86%/-2.14%
    01-Oct/+2.43%/-2.00%
    30-Sep/+2.43%/-2.00%
    29-Sep/+2.14%/-1.71%
    28-Sep/+1.57%/-1.43%
    27-Sep/+0.86%/-1.00%
    26-Sep/+0.57%/-0.57%
    25-Sep/+0.14%/+0.00%
    24-Sep/+0.00%/+0.43%
    23-Sep/-0.14%/+0.57%
    22-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    21-Sep/-0.29%/+1.00%
    20-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/-0.14%/+0.71%
    18-Sep/-0.29%/+0.86%
    17-Sep/-0.43%/+1.00%
    16-Sep/-0.57%/+1.14%
    15-Sep/-0.71%/+1.14%
    14-Sep/-0.86%/+1.00%
    13-Sep/-1.00%/+0.71%
    12-Sep/-0.57%/-0.00%
    11-Sep/+0.00%/-0.29%
    10-Sep/+0.71%/-0.86%
    09-Sep/+1.57%/-1.71%
    08-Sep/+2.29%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/+2.86%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/+3.14%/-3.57%
    05-Sep/+3.00%/-3.14%
    04-Sep/+2.71%/-3.14%
    03-Sep/+2.00%/-2.57%
    02-Sep/+1.00%/-1.57%
    01-Sep/+0.43%/-0.29%
    31-Aug/+0.43%/+0.29%
    30-Aug/+0.71%/+0.43%
    29-Aug/+0.71%/+0.29%
    28-Aug/+0.86%/+0.14%
    27-Aug/+1.14%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/+1.57%/-0.86%
    25-Aug/+1.71%/-1.29%
    24-Aug/+1.57%/-1.29%
    23-Aug/+1.43%/-1.00%
    22-Aug/+1.57%/-0.71%
    21-Aug/+2.00%/-0.86%
    20-Aug/+2.43%/-0.86%

    August Average:

    (no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
    (with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%

    September Average:

    (no leaners) 46.33%/46.10%/+0.23%
    (with leaners) 47.83%/47.63%/+0.20%

    October Average:

    (no leaners) 45.50%/47.00%/-1.50%
    (with leaners) 47.00%/49.00%/-2.00%

    Continue to stay patient, my friends.

    Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.

    Let’s see what happens later today with the party ID.

    Frank

    Comment by Frank — October 2, 2012 @ 9:03 am

    32.
    Frank
    Thanks for the correction. I have been on oxygen for the past ten(10) minutes!
    It most be your beard that got in the way.
    As always, thank you for your good work,time and efforts!

    Comment by Scott — October 2, 2012 @ 9:03 am

    33.
    UT 4
    Love 49
    Matheson 43

    Desert news

    Comment by michael — October 2, 2012 @ 9:04 am

    34.
    #27, um until the actual results come in when Republicans generally outperform most polls?

    Comment by Sy — October 2, 2012 @ 9:04 am

    35.
    Ras is sloppy. Gallup is slow in doing the right samples. PPP are dicks. I think that about sums the pollsters.

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — October 2, 2012 @ 9:04 am

    36.
    You know, Love may pull this one out.

    That would be wonderful. She’s great!

    Comment by Phil — October 2, 2012 @ 9:05 am

    37.
    Good job Frank…Surfnut took the bait!

    Comment by DW — October 2, 2012 @ 9:05 am

    38.
    @33 awesome news! Matheson can take his phony ass to the private world

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — October 2, 2012 @ 9:05 am

    39.
    #27- SurfNut
    The self-loathing Jew and Obama Brown Shirt has returned! Time to climb back in your hole!

    Comment by Scott — October 2, 2012 @ 9:06 am

    40.
    and before DW says it, more evidence district polls aren’t agreeing w/ state polls

    Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk — October 2, 2012 @ 9:06 am

    41.
    How I first felt when I saw the inaccurate numbers.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6Cw_3q1Pg

    Fortunately it turned into a good Ras day

    Comment by W.PA Observer — October 2, 2012 @ 9:06 am

    42.
    Friday was the bad night in Ras. Hopefully we will see some more movement our way in Gallup.

    Comment by RB — October 2, 2012 @ 9:06 am

    43.
    To all of my friends at HHR,

    I panicked bigtime as well. I immediately went to my spreadsheet to figure out the party ID. It came out as D +7 or D +8. Very upsetting.

    I hope that they update their table soon. It will confirm my “guess” that no leaners is 46/46.

    Phew.

    Frank

  50. Sy says:

    #51, um http://www.unskewedpolls.com is a startup. They have no credibility to start with. They will earn their credibility after November 6th.

  51. Todd McCain says:

    48. He should still compete in WI, but I dont see it as possible at this point. It looks as though Thompson could lose as well.

  52. Clubber says:

    Ohio will be a slow grind.. Remember Primiaries when he was down and slowly gindined is way to the win.

  53. HHR Poll Junkie says:

    Frank- why don’t you give us the numbers all the way back to June 1?

  54. OHIO JOE says:

    In the primaries, Mr. Romney won by advertising on TV in Ohio. If he wants to win the general election, he will have to do the same thing.

  55. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    (R/D) D +3.5 or D +3

    2008: 03-Oct/44%/51%/-7%
    2012: 03-Oct/47%/49%/-2%

    Aug,Sept & October trends (no leaners)

    03-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
    02-Oct/46%/47%/-1%
    01-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
    30-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
    29-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    27-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    26-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    25-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    24-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    23-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    22-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
    21-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    20-Sep/45%/47%/-2%
    19-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    18-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    17-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    16-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    15-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    14-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    13-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    12-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
    11-Sep/45%/48%/-3%
    10-Sep/45%/50%/-5%
    09-Sep/45%/49%/-4%
    08-Sep/44%/46%/-2%
    07-Sep/46%/45%/+1%
    06-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    05-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    02-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
    01-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
    31-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    30-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    29-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    28-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    27-Aug/44%/47%/-3%
    26-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    25-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    24-Aug/46%/45%/+1%
    23-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    22-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    21-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    20-Aug/44%/43%/+1%
    19-Aug/43%/45%/-2%
    18-Aug/44%/46%/-2%
    17-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    16-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
    15-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    14-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    13-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
    12-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    11-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    10-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    09-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    08-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
    07-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
    06-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
    05-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    04-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    03-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
    02-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
    01-Aug/47%/44%/+3%

    August & September trends (with leaners)

    THE OUTLIER HAS GONE.

    03-Oct/47%/49%/-2%
    02-Oct/47%/48%/-1%
    01-Oct/47%/50%/-3%
    30-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    29-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    28-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    27-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    26-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
    25-Sep/47%/47%/+0%
    24-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    23-Sep/48%/48%/-1%
    22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
    21-Sep/46%/49%/-3%
    20-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    19-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    18-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    17-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    16-Sep/48%/49%/-1%
    15-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
    14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
    13-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    12-Sep/48%/47%/+1%
    11-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
    10-Sep/46%/50%/-4%
    09-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
    08-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
    07-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
    06-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    05-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    04-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
    03-Sep/50%/46%/+4%
    02-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
    31-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    30-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    29-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    28-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
    27-Aug/45%/49%/-4%
    26-Aug/46%/49%/-3%
    25-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    24-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    23-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    22-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    21-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    20-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
    19-Aug/46%/47%/-1%
    18-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    17-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    16-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    15-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    14-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    13-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
    12-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    11-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    10-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    09-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
    08-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
    07-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
    06-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
    05-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
    04-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
    03-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
    02-Aug/49%/45%/+4%
    01-Aug/50%/45%/+5%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)

    03-Oct/47.29%/48.71%/-1.43%
    02-Oct/47.43%/48.29%/-0.86%
    01-Oct/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
    30-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
    29-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    28-Sep/47.71%/47.57%/+0.14%
    27-Sep/47.43%/47.71%/-0.29%
    26-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/47.29%/48.29%/-1.00%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    23-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
    22-Sep/47.43%/48.57%/-1.14%
    21-Sep/47.57%/48.57%/-1.00%
    20-Sep/48.14%/48.29%/-0.14%
    19-Sep/48.43%/47.86%/+0.57%
    18-Sep/48.43%/47.71%/+0.71%
    17-Sep/48.29%/47.86%/+0.43%
    16-Sep/48.00%/48.14%/-0.14%
    15-Sep/47.86%/48.29%/-0.43%
    14-Sep/47.57%/48.14%/-0.57%
    13-Sep/47.14%/48.00%/-0.86%
    12-Sep/47.14%/47.71%/-0.57%
    11-Sep/47.29%/47.71%/-0.43%
    10-Sep/47.57%/47.43%/+0.14%
    09-Sep/48.14%/46.86%/+1.29%
    08-Sep/48.43%/46.14%/+2.29%
    07-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/48.43%/46.29%/+2.14%
    04-Sep/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
    03-Sep/47.57%/46.57%/+1.00%
    02-Sep/46.86%/47.00%/-0.14%
    01-Sep/46.43%/47.57%/-1.14%
    31-Aug/46.29%/48.00%/-1.71%
    30-Aug/46.43%/48.00%/-1.57%
    29-Aug/46.57%/47.71%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/46.86%/47.29%/-0.43%
    27-Aug/47.00%/47.00%/+0.00%
    26-Aug/47.29%/46.57%/+0.71%
    25-Aug/47.29%/46.29%/+1.00%
    24-Aug/47.29%/46.14%/+1.14%
    23-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    22-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
    21-Aug/47.43%/46.14%/+1.29%
    20-Aug/47.86%/46.00%/+1.86%
    19-Aug/48.29%/45.86%/+2.43%
    18-Aug/48.57%/45.57%/+3.00%
    17-Aug/48.71%/45.29%/+3.43%
    16-Aug/49.00%/44.86%/+4.14%
    15-Aug/49.14%/44.57%/+4.57%
    14-Aug/48.86%/44.86%/+4.00%
    13-Aug/48.43%/45.14%/+3.29%
    12-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    11-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    10-Aug/47.86%/45.57%/+2.29%
    09-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
    08-Aug/48.00%/45.71%/+2.29%
    07-Aug/48.29%/45.57%/+2.71%

    Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)

    03-Oct/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    02-Oct/45.86%/47.14%/-1.29%
    01-Oct/45.86%/47.14%/-1.29%
    30-Sep/46.00%/47.00%/-1.00%
    29-Sep/46.00%/46.71%/-0.71%
    28-Sep/46.00%/46.43%/-0.43%
    27-Sep/45.86%/46.29%/-0.43%
    26-Sep/45.71%/46.43%/-0.71%
    25-Sep/45.86%/46.43%/-0.57%
    24-Sep/46.00%/46.14%/-0.14%
    23-Sep/46.14%/45.86%/+0.29%
    22-Sep/46.29%/45.86%/+0.43%
    21-Sep/46.57%/45.86%/+0.71%
    20-Sep/47.00%/45.71%/+1.29%
    19-Sep/47.29%/45.57%/+1.71%
    18-Sep/47.00%/45.57%/+1.43%
    17-Sep/46.71%/46.00%/+0.71%
    16-Sep/46.43%/46.71%/-0.29%
    15-Sep/46.14%/47.14%/-1.00%
    14-Sep/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    13-Sep/45.29%/47.14%/-1.86%
    12-Sep/45.29%/46.86%/-1.57%
    11-Sep/45.71%/46.71%/-1.00%
    10-Sep/46.00%/46.29%/-0.29%
    09-Sep/46.43%/45.43%/+1.00%
    08-Sep/46.86%/44.71%/+2.14%
    07-Sep/47.29%/44.43%/+2.86%
    06-Sep/47.14%/44.29%/+2.86%
    05-Sep/46.86%/44.43%/+2.43%
    04-Sep/46.43%/44.57%/+1.86%
    03-Sep/46.14%/44.86%/+1.29%
    02-Sep/45.57%/45.29%/+0.29%
    01-Sep/45.14%/45.71%/-0.57%
    31-Aug/44.86%/46.00%/-1.14%
    30-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    29-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
    28-Aug/45.14%/45.86%/-0.71%
    27-Aug/45.14%/45.43%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/45.14%/44.86%/+0.29%
    25-Aug/44.86%/44.57%/+0.29%
    24-Aug/44.71%/44.57%/+0.14%
    23-Aug/44.57%/44.71%/-0.14%
    22-Aug/44.57%/44.57%/+0.00%
    21-Aug/44.71%/44.43%/+0.29%
    20-Aug/45.00%/44.43%/+0.57%
    19-Aug/45.43%/44.57%/+0.86%

    McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)

    7-Day Rolling Average:

    McCain had crashed AND BURNED.

    03-Oct/44.43%/50.57%/-6.14%
    02-Oct/44.57%/50.43%/-5.86%
    01-Oct/45.00%/50.14%/-5.14%
    30-Sep/45.14%/49.80%/-4.71%
    29-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    28-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    27-Sep/46.57%/48.71%/-2.14%
    26-Sep/47.00%/48.43%/-1.43%
    25-Sep/47.14%/48.29%/-1.14%
    24-Sep/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
    23-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
    22-Sep/47.57%/47.71%/-0.14%
    21-Sep/47.86%/47.57%/+0.29%
    20-Sep/48.29%/47.43%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    18-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    17-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
    16-Sep/48.57%/47.00%/+1.57%
    15-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
    14-Sep/48.43%/47.14%/+1.29%
    13-Sep/48.14%/47.29%/+0.86%
    12-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
    11-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
    10-Sep/46.86%/48.29%/-1.43%
    09-Sep/46.57%/48.57%/-2.00%
    08-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/45.86%/49.29%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
    05-Sep/45.43%/49.43%/-4.00%
    04-Sep/45.29%/49.57%/-4.28%
    03-Sep/45.57%/49.14%/-3.57%
    02-Sep/45.86%/48.57%/-2.71%
    01-Sep/46.00%/47.86%/-1.86%
    31-Aug/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
    30-Aug/45.71%/47.57%/-1.86%
    29-Aug/45.86%/47.43%/-1.57%
    28-Aug/46.00%/47.14%/-1.14%
    27-Aug/45.86%/47.29%/-1.43%
    26-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    25-Aug/45.57%/47.57%/-2.00%
    24-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
    23-Aug/45.71%/47.29%/-1.57%
    22-Aug/45.57%/47.00%/-1.43%
    21-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    20-Aug/45.43%/46.86%/-1.43%
    19-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
    18-Aug/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
    17-Aug/45.57%/47.29%/-1.71%
    16-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%

    Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)

    03-Oct/+2.86%/-1.86%
    02-Oct/+2.86%/-2.14%
    01-Oct/+2.43%/-2.00%
    30-Sep/+2.43%/-2.00%
    29-Sep/+2.14%/-1.71%
    28-Sep/+1.57%/-1.43%
    27-Sep/+0.86%/-1.00%
    26-Sep/+0.57%/-0.57%
    25-Sep/+0.14%/+0.00%
    24-Sep/+0.00%/+0.43%
    23-Sep/-0.14%/+0.57%
    22-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    21-Sep/-0.29%/+1.00%
    20-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
    19-Sep/-0.14%/+0.71%
    18-Sep/-0.29%/+0.86%
    17-Sep/-0.43%/+1.00%
    16-Sep/-0.57%/+1.14%
    15-Sep/-0.71%/+1.14%
    14-Sep/-0.86%/+1.00%
    13-Sep/-1.00%/+0.71%
    12-Sep/-0.57%/-0.00%
    11-Sep/+0.00%/-0.29%
    10-Sep/+0.71%/-0.86%
    09-Sep/+1.57%/-1.71%
    08-Sep/+2.29%/-2.86%
    07-Sep/+2.86%/-3.43%
    06-Sep/+3.14%/-3.57%
    05-Sep/+3.00%/-3.14%
    04-Sep/+2.71%/-3.14%
    03-Sep/+2.00%/-2.57%
    02-Sep/+1.00%/-1.57%
    01-Sep/+0.43%/-0.29%
    31-Aug/+0.43%/+0.29%
    30-Aug/+0.71%/+0.43%
    29-Aug/+0.71%/+0.29%
    28-Aug/+0.86%/+0.14%
    27-Aug/+1.14%/-0.29%
    26-Aug/+1.57%/-0.86%
    25-Aug/+1.71%/-1.29%
    24-Aug/+1.57%/-1.29%
    23-Aug/+1.43%/-1.00%
    22-Aug/+1.57%/-0.71%
    21-Aug/+2.00%/-0.86%
    20-Aug/+2.43%/-0.86%

    August Average:

    (no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
    (with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%

    September Average:

    (no leaners) 46.33%/46.10%/+0.23%
    (with leaners) 47.83%/47.63%/+0.20%

    October Average:

    (no leaners) 45.33%/47.67%/-2.33%
    (with leaners) 47.00%/49.00%/-2.00%

    Continue to stay patient, my friends.

    Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.

    Frank

  56. Frank says:

    HHR Poll Junkie says:

    October 3, 2012 at 9:01 am

    “Frank- why don’t you give us the numbers all the way back to June 1?”

    Junkie,

    I started tracking numbers August 1.

    Frank

  57. DW says:

    59 – not what I was hoping to see today for sure.

  58. Hunter says:

    Thanks Scott…

    I’ll have to go find the article again…

    It may have been referring to correlation to BOL private sector numbers…

    Obviously not taking into public sector…

  59. and more evidence O is clearly in the lead *sighs*

  60. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    If you want Romney to run TV ads in Ohio send him some money.

  61. hugh says:

    cant get over the hump can we? need a good effort tonight

  62. “send him some money.”

    we sent him over 100 million month after month, where the f**** is it?

  63. Phil says:

    Not a good night with independents in RAS

    Went from three up to down 8.

    That was the difference. Probably noise.

  64. EML says:

    57 – for real. I’m begging you, please stop with the 500 line posts. Its a real pain to have to scroll through on a smart phone. Nobody cares what the poll numbers were on August 1st.

  65. Sy says:

    3 up to down 8? probably noise …YOU THINK?

  66. anyone know about the GOTV effort much? I see Rience Preibus is throwing zingers out on twitter but what’s he doing about GOTV? For me personally; i’ve had a Romney robo-call, various donation requests, and a check up on me if i’m an active voter or not.

  67. Jeff P says:

    I am wanting to see the ID. I still think Ras has a +R 1 or 2 in his date that he is leery to use. Prove me wrong RAS, show us your #’s.

  68. OHIO JOE says:

    “If you want Romney to run TV ads in Ohio send him some money.” Hey, he has plenty of money in his warchest. Are you trying to tell me that he pissed it all away???

  69. Frank says:

    Rasmussen Swing State 7-Day Tracking Poll:

    Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women

    47/89/9/41/53/41 Romney
    49/7/89/49/42/54 Obama

    Certain to Vote

    42/84/6/33/47/37 Romney
    44/6/83/40/37/49 Obama

    Job Approval

    49/10/87/47/43/53 approve
    50/88/13/51/56/45 disapprove

    Frank

  70. OHIO JOE says:

    Further, our local candidates have no trouble finding money to advertise on TV.

  71. Jeff P says:

    Any poll that does not have Romney with a lead with I’s cannot be accurate. IMHO.

  72. Ray says:

    Btw looks like Rasmussen has cross-posted internals again today as they are the same for Swing State & National #s (looks like instead national internals are shown twice vs. yesterday when it was SS).

  73. DW says:

    Wow, I didn’t expect the swing state to tighten yet. So that is good news.

  74. moon doggie says:

    32

    So I’m to believe that Romney will lose the black vote because he won’t put ads on BET?

    Please . . .

  75. Jeff P says:

    Swing State tracking goes down 3 pts today.

  76. Ray says:

    Frank, I believe those SS #s are wrong.

  77. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    YAWN! Anyone else bored?

  78. YAWN! Anyone else bored?

    Comment by Jenny’s BLUE POLLS! — October 3, 2012 @ 9:13 am

    of you? – yes

  79. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    The Rasmussen polls are showing some volatility of late. Any news on Sept party affiliation.

  80. Tina says:

    J/a #s national?

  81. @GOP

    “We are better than them [Democrats] on the ground.”- @Reince

  82. Phil says:

    I wish RAS would get it together. I won’t post numbers today because he’s got his internals all confused.

  83. PA Independent says:

    Phil, Pitch or Polaris:

    I would like your opinion on something. I am not a statistician but with some “simple” math I have seen about a 125,000 difference between 2008 Ohio absentee ballot requests and 2012 requests. This has been pretty consistent for about a week now and favors Romney. I think 125,000 is more than 40% of the vote deficit in 2008. And absentees reflected only about 30% of the vote in 2008. Either the GOP is REALLY pushing the early vote or something significant is going on here. Granted it is early but this speaks volumes to me about voting enthusiasm at the least. This CANNOT be a 8-10% race in my opinion. The data points to 1-2% either way so far. Thoughts?

  84. SusyQue says:

    Frank, I don’t understand all those number columns. Please write in a few words whether they are a positive for Romney after you post those loooooog columns. Thanks

  85. moon doggie says:

    Is jenny supposed to be channeling Sybil?

    A few too many personalities.

  86. SusyQue says:

    Hugh Hewitt…always has savvy guys and gals on his radio show to discuss the latest polls. Yesterday, was a good day in OHIO for Romney.

  87. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    Small outlier among independents, however they have been getting closer to a push in the last month.

    The Swing-State poll has returned to normal parameters. That makes me feel better. I was really getting worried.

    I hope that they poll some significant states today.

    Frank

  88. @89 Jenny is a trailer park nut that posts every now and then how mormonism will destroy us. Her handle has been stolen by many including a blue balls troll who’s existence is so insignificant that she must used another handle to define herself.

  89. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    In polling you get a bad sample every 20 polls. The nature of the beast. Plus stop the whining about money and ads and do something.

  90. OHIO JOE says:

    “@GOP

    “We are better than them [Democrats] on the ground.”- @Reince”

    I do not doubt that per se, but even Mr. Bush was able to match Mr. Kerry ad for ad on TV

  91. SusyQue says:

    R’s in Ohio are voting with great enthusiasm…not the same for D’s.

  92. “Plus stop the whining about money and ads and do something.”

    make me. the fact is we sent Romney 100s of millions and still watch Obama over and over again on TV w/ barely any retorts from Romney ads.

  93. OHIO JOE says:

    You will be the one whinning if you do not get busy with regards to TV ads.

  94. phoenixrisen says:

    That Marist poll out of Ohio is bunk. D+8, exactly 2008. Highly doubtful Obama is pulling 95-2 among Democrats there. As Ohio Joe pointed out, he pulled in an 89-10 percentage in 2008. The big difference is now the enthusiasm and massive registration number and early voting advantages are gone for Obama. In fact, GOP voters are outperforming 2008 already. Ohio is a 2 point lead for Obama right now with about 7-10 percent undecided, somewhere around 47-45 to 48-46. Funny how Ohio mirrors the national polling results of Rasmussen right now. Another thing to think about, what about the GOP voters in Ohio in rural and suburban areas that stayed home in 2008 but showed up in 2010 and will vote this time?

    I think Florida and Virginia go Romney. Obama hasn’t been to Florida in weeks and Romney not being there indicates his concern level right now with that must win state. Virginia is tighter, but according to the ground reports from DW, those bellweather areas in VA that were pro-Obama in 2008 have flipped from a yard sign standpoint. Also, there are a lot of defense workers that are very concerned for their jobs in Northern Virginia. Whatever air or blog play the Obama Administration trying to get defense contractors to delay sending out WARN notices to those workers has them wondering if they will be given their walking papers in early January. Just something to keep in mind.

    The way I see it, Obama is fighting for his life trying to hang on. The battlefront right now is Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada. Michigan and Pennsylvania are probably 5-8 point wins for Obama if the race stays where it is at. If the undecideds break for Romney and the dam breaks, Michigan and Pennsylvania become nail-biters. The snapshot of those states is Obama is up barely in Ohio and Wisconsin, Romney is up barely in Virginia, Colorado and Iowa, and New Hampshire and Nevada are toss-ups. The polling out of Virginia has been absurd as far as electorate turnout in that state.

  95. OHIO JOE says:

    “R’s in Ohio are voting with great enthusiasm…not the same for D’s.” So far, that is true.

  96. Frank says:

    SusyQue says:

    October 3, 2012 at 9:16 am

    “Frank, I don’t understand all those number columns. Please write in a few words whether they are a positive for Romney after you post those loooooog columns. Thanks”

    SQ,

    The long lists are for people to see the trends during the last month or two. You can clearly see both bounces for the two candidates.

    The 7-Day Rolling Average shows less volatility than the 3-Day Poll. This is closer to what the race currently is.

    We must take into account that the polls are being weighed D+3, though.

    The column with McCain/Obama is to show what was happening 4 years ago. I have their 7-Day rolling average as well. You can clearly see when the shift towards Obama happened.

    The column labelled difference between 2008/2012 contains the difference between the 2012 average with leaners and the 2008 average with leaners (7-days). This column clearly shows that Romney has stayed consistently better than McCain and that Obama is consistantly below where he was 4 years ago.

    The current state of the race is very tight. It truly depends on the GOTV. If the GOP can get a push election, Romney wins fairly handily. If it is a D+1 race, Romney should win. D+2 will be a nailbiter. We would be up very late, if it’s D+2.

    I will take your advice and try to put a brief analysis at the top of the columns so that you can see my thoughts.

    Frank

  97. EML says:

    Whatever air or blog play the Obama Administration trying to get defense contractors to delay sending out WARN notices to those workers has them wondering if they will be given their walking papers in early January. Just something to keep in mind.
    =====================================
    We got an email yesterday saying that the company was not going to issue a WARN notice, but that 10% of us will lose our jobs if sequestration is allowed to happen.

  98. is MD still busy enjoying Bermuda, you know while “working” and all that?

  99. hugh says:

    Author in broward county the last few days all I am seeing are romney ads very few obama ads

  100. SusyQue says:

    Go Rove Go!

    American Crossroads super PAC and its affiliate Crossroads GPS are about to unleash their biggest ad offensive of the 2012 campaign, with $16 million going to one week’s worth of TV and radio ads in eight key presidential states and four Senate battlegrounds.

    For the presidential race, American Crossroads is putting out an $11 million spot focusing on President Barack Obama’s promise that his stimulus package would push unemployment down to 5.6 percent by now, Politico reports. The rate actually stands at 8.1 percent.

    “Obama’s spending drove us $5 trillion deeper in debt, and now we have fewer jobs than when he started,” the ad’s narrator says.

  101. Author in broward county the last few days all I am seeing are romney ads very few obama ads

    Comment by hugh — October 3, 2012 @ 9:28 am

    not on my end here in Pinellas

  102. PA Independent says:

    Frank:

    What were Rasmussen’s Swing State Numbers for today?

  103. jan says:

    Author is sounding more and more like an eyore.

  104. SusyQue says:

    Frank….thank you. I hope your children inherited your ability to decipher numbers!

  105. phoenixrisen says:

    Curious that Ras hasn’t posted his Partisan Trends update yet. Gotta wonder what’s up behind the scenes there.

  106. Howard Dean says:

    639k ballot requests in OH so far.

    O won the state by 4.58% in 08.

    In 08, the Dems won early ballot requests by 14% (rounding), current lead is 5%.

  107. hugh says:

    that is interesting. must figure they dont need the ads in your area. I have seen the crossroads ads here. uses graphs very good ad

  108. moon doggie says:

    101

    Fine, but what is the volume?

  109. Tina says:

    Can we get the job approval for Ras and the other #s just for today?

  110. Author is sounding more and more like an eyore.

    Comment by jan — October 3, 2012 @ 9:30 am

    um, i’ve only mentioned about 100 times that i’ve been pessimistic about the race since the week after the DNC. Better me being mad and sad on the state of the race then celebrating it like another certain pessimist on here.

  111. jason says:

    Excellent Romney ad here in PA, narrated by party switcher Arthur Davis.

    It shows him nominating Obama in 2008.

    The theme is broken promises, why he no longer supports Obama now.

    I hope its playing in OH and VA too.

  112. that is interesting. must figure they dont need the ads in your area. I have seen the crossroads ads here. uses graphs very good ad

    Comment by hugh — October 3, 2012 @ 9:31 am

    I will say that I do live in a district that has a Cook PVI of D+11

  113. DW says:

    SC_07 (new district)

    Tom Rice (R) 49
    Gloria Tinubu (D) 36

    Winthrop

    This is a rated a Safe R seat.

  114. hugh says:

    I have to admit until the 47% comment I was very confident. I now believe we have to get some help like terrible job numbers or a good debate performance.

  115. OHIO JOE says:

    The 47% remark was costly in a number of states, especially Ohio.

  116. jan says:

    Welk take your mad and sadness over to David Frums blog. Just when Romney is on the uptick we dont need your consistent negatitivity.

  117. Welk take your mad and sadness over to David Frums blog. Just when Romney is on the uptick we dont need your consistent negatitivity.

    Comment by jan — October 3, 2012 @ 9:35 am

    bwhahahahaha, *heaves a breath of air*, bwhahahahahaha. oh really, your come and take me out of here?

  118. jason says:

    Aren;t the Marist polls a lot closer in FL and VA than last week?

  119. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    121.The 47% remark was costly in a number of states, especially Ohio.

    Comment by OHIO JOE

    The 47% would never vote romney to begin with.Tax users vote dim not repub.

  120. watch out everyone jan’s coming to shove people off the blog. Please, i’ve wanted Robbie off of here for months. I don’t have the ability to shove him out and neither do you w/ me.

  121. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Sorry about post 53. Somehow it submitted my post when I hit delete. Go figure.

    Frank

  122. Aren;t the Marist polls a lot closer in FL and VA than last week?

    Comment by jason — October 3, 2012 @ 9:36 am

    yep

  123. jan, go down Hunter’s list of us pessimists so you can run them down and get them out of here!

  124. Tina says:

    Hunter’s list!!!

  125. @jimgeraghty States with no voter ID laws, according to the WashPost: CA, NV, NM, NE, IA, MN, WI, IL, MS, WV, NC, PA, MD, NJ, NY, MA, ME.

  126. Bitterlaw says:

    Last night, my children pushed me to the point where I said, “Just about everybody on my Mom and Dad’s side of the family died of cancer. Maybe you will get lucky and I won’t bother you too much longer.”. Some people might think that was a bit over the top.

  127. Howard Dean says:

    There should be a federal law requiring Voter ID.

  128. Phil says:

    RAS NC later this morning.

  129. Tina says:

    “Mr. President, do you agree with the assessment of the Vice President that over the past four years, the middle class has been ‘buried’?”

    Not gonna be asked.

  130. Tina says:

    Frank, so what are the #s- if#53 was not intended?

  131. OHIO JOE says:

    “The 47% would never vote romney to begin with.Tax users vote dim not repub.” You gotta be kidding. First off, many in the 53% hardly pay a lot to the Feds. Second, many in the 47% are there because of tax credits. Further, many of them would rather climb out of the 47% catagory if the economic opportunities were there, but instead, we have too much socialism and regulations on the federal level.

  132. rdelbov says:

    No link Howard?

    Absentee ballot requests are impossible to cipher for political clues in 2012 for Ohio.

    1st in 2012 the SOS mailed an absentee ballot request to all +5 million registered voters in Ohio. That was not done in 2008. So in 2008 the number of mail in ballot absentee requests for that year was quite small. This year there is already +640K. There really is no basis of comparison. I suspect in 2008 there was less then 100K in true mail in absentee ballots. This year there could be 1 million plus.

    2nd there is no party ID in Ohio. So local election commissions are classifying republicans or democrats for absentee ballot requests based on your last primary vote. So if you voted in the D primary for Belmont Sheriff election of 2011 you are classified as a D even if you voted in the GOP Gov primary of 2010. This is a hit and miss at best for many voters.

    Do IMO the numbers of ballots cast in 2008 is so hard to compare to 2012. in addition the basis for determining party ID is questionable.

  133. Tina says:

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/03/us-planning-to-attack-terror-networks-in-benghazi/

    Benghazi gate

    If it was about a movie, why attack a terrorist camp?

    Second, why does the NY Slimes have knowledge about said attack?

    WTF

  134. Waingro says:

    Very disappointing numbers from Ras today. This sort of kills the “dead heat” meme I was hoping for going into tonight’s debate.

  135. GA Voter says:

    People need to toughen up. Did they not learn that in grade school? What about the 47% comment. I for one, don’t care what the government feels about me. I feel about me and sometimes I say screw what the hubby and kids think. But, then again, I can say “no” to people.

    Seems to me, these people affected by the 47% comment are yes, touchy, feely people. We all know what the comment was really about. (Wish I could up load a video of the ER wait room at Grady in Atlanta or a Marta train line in ATL for proof.)

    The clingers to the 47% need to get a clue and realize it is not about them, but about our country at this point.

    In other words, they need to grow up, say “no” once in awhile and carry on with independence in their stride.

  136. Hunter says:

    Author…

    How exactly do you think Romney builds, and funds, a national campaign including ads, GOTV efforts, etc.?…

    Do you think EVERY dollar is meant to only go to ads?…

  137. hugh says:

    polls are close enough. now we need a jobs report and a good debate and polls will take care of itself. a bad perf and we may not dig our way out

  138. @142 again he’s had ONE HUNDRED million + for months, we should be seeing more ads. Is he seriously spending hundreds of millions in GOTV?

  139. Tom Gordon says:

    Ohio Joe,

    I understand your points but who really considers himself/herself in the 47% class? I doubt too many do. Just like almost everyone considers himself “middle class” despite their economic conditions.

    Also, those who are not seeking dependence on the government as a permanent condition and who are willing to potentially vote for Romney know exactly what Romney was saying. Romney was talking about those who are seeking government handouts as a way of life.

    While the comment wasn’t helpful at all, I don’t think it was a killer. The polls did turn a bit negative following the comment, but now seem to be right where they were prior to his comment.

  140. GA Voter says:

    Just because someone requests an early ballot, doesn’t mean they will send it in. Look around your kitchen or study. Do you see piles of “to dos” that are put off? Some just take care of themselves and expire.

  141. Hunter says:

    Sadly, I’ve lost my list…

    But good to know I made a lasting effect on you Tina…

    Served it’s purpose…

  142. hugh says:

    GA voter wouldnt that be nice if they did. However, there is very little history to suggest they will. We would be up 3 right now and highly motivated with the dems depressed in my view without that stupid comment. Romney on the night of the comment had all the momentum.

  143. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    .Second, many in the 47% are there because of tax credits

    Comment by OHIO JOE

    And they would rather vote obammer than give up any of their “earned income credits”.**

    **(Refunds for taxes never paid) IE:~~disguised welfare payment.

  144. Todd McCain says:

    Romney is in a better position now than either Kerry or McCain — lets keep the faith, hope for a good debate, support Support the RR ticket and WIN!

  145. Howard Dean says:

    Comment by rdelbov — October 3, 2012 @ 9:43 am

    Dave’s filter won’t let me post it.

  146. GA Voter says:

    Checking out jobs on Craigslist, you can see the efforts of the Obama campaign trying to hire GOTV people for battleground states. Dems will put them up once they get to the site, but not pay. A per diem for food though.

    Check it out for the surrounding big cities under part time jobs or volunteer section.

  147. Howard Dean says:

    Romney’s closing remarks better be strong.

  148. OHIO JOE says:

    True, few think of themselves as a 47% per se these days, and if they do, they’d be pissed off at Mr. Obama anyway. Nevertheless, it was not a wise thing to say. Will it kill his chances? Absolutely not, but there is now a slightly bigger climb. Mr. Obama survived his guns and religion comments so yes, it is certainly possible to survive any gaffe. Mr. Biden survived many.

  149. Hunter says:

    Author…

    I posted here two weeks ago that I’ve seen a noticeable uptick in Romney ads in the CO market…

    I can’t speak for other swing states…

  150. @157 might explain why CO remains stubbornly close

  151. DW says:

    $10 says tonight after Romney’s closing remarks, the moderator will impromptu give Obama 20 seconds to respond, just out of respect for the president.

  152. OHIO JOE says:

    “And they would rather vote obammer than give up any of their “earned income credits”.**

    **(Refunds for taxes never paid) IE:~~disguised welfare payment” Yes, and what about SS?

  153. moon doggie says:

    EIC

    The more kids the better. Promotes over population.

    Also a key source of tax fraud.

  154. Howard Dean says:

    About 20k ballots returned in NC-GOP holds 22% lead.

    Way too early to draw conclusions though.

  155. Frank says:

    Friends,

    It’s not posted on Rasmussen but it can be seen on their crosstabs.

    Last week, their weekly crosstabs were weighed 36/38/26.

    They have since changed. They have two polls out today. They are: “Just 17% view debates as very important to how they will vote” and “Is the election a referendum on Obama’s agenda?”

    In both of those polls, their party ID is 37/38/25.

    They see a D+1 electorate. YES

    Frank

  156. Waingro says:

    The RCP average for Ohio is just brutal to look at right now.

  157. DW says:

    NC just jumped to almost 20000 ballots received, and the GOP also increased and the youth and black ballots dropped since the last update:

    Party Reg
    Dem 28.8%
    Rep 52.6%
    None/Oth 18.6%
    Age
    18-29 7.8%
    30-44 10.4%
    45-59 20.0%
    60+ 61.7%
    Race
    White 88.3%
    Black 7.8%
    Other/None 3.9%
    Gender
    Female 55.9%
    Male 43.4%
    Unknown 0.7%

  158. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    Not sure if anyone posted this, but maybe Boy Wonder Michael is onto something with Oregon!!

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/is-the-obama-campaign-running-ads-in-oregon/article/2509663#.UGu6ghgmY9c

    Not saying Romney should go there, but maybe he should call Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (is that her name – Green Party) and see if they can compete for the Portland loonie votes, which might allow the Mittster to slide thru.

  159. rdelbov says:

    Howards its really funny that some links are easily postable here but others are not.

  160. Waingro says:

    #163, Frank I REALLY hope that is true, but hasn’t Ras been using different crosstabs for his polls the last month or so versus what he’s found as Partisan ID?

  161. SusyQue says:

    #165…Waingro….brutal for whom? You are not truthful.

  162. Polaris says:

    I am inclined to put the change in Ras as simply noise (and remember that the MOE for any sub-sample is higher than for the overall poll). This would explain the minor back and for changes in the top line as well as the fluctuation in the Indy percentage. Unfortunately, yes, the Rasmussen data is consistant with a narrow (1-2) point Obama lead.

    As for Ohio, remember that these are *requests* and not actual ballots. Still, I tend to agree that something very significant and very subterranian is happening in Ohio that virtually everyone that is not watching the ground game is missing (including almost all the polsters) and this is why my outlook on Ohio has brightened considerably. You are basically right….if this carris through with actual absentee vote (driven in large part by the Dems FAILING to reach 2008 numbers while the GOP exceeds their targets), then the obama 2008 margin is cut nearly in half from absentees alone.

    This would actually be consistant with Romney carrying Ohio. I won’t go out on that limb yet…not without more data, but things are looking good on the ground in Ohio. MY take anyway.

    -Polaris

  163. mark2 says:

    Frank, Ras is late today posting to the Front page.. still nothing

  164. GA Voter says:

    I sure hope Romney has a come back to Obama’s better off comments with regards to company 401Ks. The DOW may be up to 2008 levels, BUT with all the money printed, they are worth considerably less. With the impending arrival of inflation and deficit levels, the value of the funds for future retirees is bleak.

    However, the average American does not have a grasp of this concept. They function in real time at the pump and I have to say inside the QT as well. If one can pick up a Coke for 89 cents (AND lucky us, ANY size /sarc) that is how we judge the current day.

    The person of the house that buys the food, might notice an uptick, but charges away on the credit card. They don’t feel that impact right away.

    A lot of sheeples out there.

    Off to the un-American Wal-Mart now. (and Target!)

  165. mark2 says:

    doh, got Ras

  166. Marv says:

    Frank,

    Please check the RAS swing state totals that you posted in #73. The numbers you posted appear to be from the RAS national tracking poll. Also, is there any chance that RAS has flipped the Indies? It seems hightly improbable that Obama leads 49-41. No other poll shows that, in fact the National Journal poll out today shows a 49-41 Romney lead with Indies.

  167. Howard Dean says:

    Comment by rdelbov — October 3, 2012 @ 9:58 am

    Ya, that is odd.

  168. OHIO JOE says:

    “The RCP average for Ohio is just brutal to look at right now.” Because Democrats are way over sampled.

  169. Polaris says:

    #177 Pretty much.

    -Polaris

  170. rdelbov says:

    Absentee and early voting can be hard to cipher for clues as to results be it from Iowa or Ohio or NC.

    In 2008 we saw D voters absolutely storm the gates during early voting. In Ohio, IN, FL, NC, TX, NV among other states young voters and AA voters stood in line for hours and hours to vote. Here in memphis areas I saw AA voters and young voters wait up to 3 hours to cast a ballot. Here in TN your election day voting location, we have over 300 in Shelby county, is never more then a 1/2 mile or less away. So its not like it a burden to vote on election day. Yet we had +100 people in line in AA voting locations at the start of early voting.

    What will 2012 bring? In Iowa and Ohio the Ds are really pushing absentee voting by mail. In either state you can vote absentee by mail or in person. Yet the Ds are really pushing the mail in option. I think its because they are concerned their voters will not stand in line for hours for him in 2012.

    I actually see this push to vote by mail as a sign that the D passion is down.

  171. Frank says:

    Frank says: CORRECTION

    October 3, 2012 at 9:56 am

    Friends,

    It’s not posted on Rasmussen but it can be seen on their crosstabs.

    Last week, their weekly crosstabs were weighed 36/39/25. PRIOR TO LAST WEEK IT WAS 36/38/26.

    They have since changed. They have two polls out today. They are: “Just 17% view debates as very important to how they will vote” and “Is the election a referendum on Obama’s agenda?”

    In both of those polls, their party ID is 37/38/25.

    They see a D+1 electorate. YES

    Frank

  172. Frank says:

    Marv says:

    October 3, 2012 at 10:01 am

    “Frank,

    Please check the RAS swing state totals that you posted in #73. The numbers you posted appear to be from the RAS national tracking poll. Also, is there any chance that RAS has flipped the Indies? It seems hightly improbable that Obama leads 49-41. No other poll shows that, in fact the National Journal poll out today shows a 49-41 Romney lead with Indies.”

    I messed up. They had double posted their 3-day numbers. At the moment, we can’t even access their crosstabs.

    SORRY

    Frank

  173. Howard Dean says:

    Ballot requests are a sign of motivation.

  174. Frank says:

    Waingro says:

    October 3, 2012 at 9:58 am

    #163, Frank I REALLY hope that is true, but hasn’t Ras been using different crosstabs for his polls the last month or so versus what he’s found as Partisan ID?

    Waingro,

    Yes. The numbers I posted on my correction post we the ID’s that they were using for most, if not all of the summer. It switched to D+3 last week and this week, it appears to have changed to D+1.

    I hope that they continue with D+1. If so, we win.

    Frank

  175. david says:

    It appears the VA senate seat is slipping away. I can’t imagine having Kaine as my senator for six years…would rather have Webb. Allen was a much better govenor than Kaine. It’s ashame a large group of the voter block don’t even remeber Allen as our Govenor….of course they won’t hear about that in school.

  176. DW says:

    R 36.8
    D 34.2
    O 29

  177. Phil says:

    RAS NC

    Romney 51
    Obama 47

    Internals to follow….

  178. Scott says:

    There is no doubt that Obama had a good last night in Ras.Everything moved toward Obama from JA/D to the horse race.
    Thanks,Scott!

  179. Marv says:

    Frank,

    Are you saying that the current RAS D/R/I model that RAS is using is 38/37/25…..D+1?

    If so, then somebody flipped the Indies when they entered the total into their software system and it hasn’t been caught yet by the quality control guy. It’s not possble for O to lead by only 2 points overall and by 8 points with Indies. The math isn’t there for that.

  180. Frank says:

    Rasmussen:

    North Carolina: 51/47 Romney/Obama

    Frank

  181. SusyQue says:

    #132…Bitter…If you opened your door and saw a huge bear standing there, would you invite him in or slam the door shut?

    Never accept cancer! Never speak a negative about your health. Words like you spoke frighten your children …not even to be
    “humorous.” MD is setting a good example for you….focus on eating healthy foods. Take long walks.

  182. Scott says:

    #188- Phil
    Thanks. This is where I suspect No. Carolina will end up.
    Ras’ last NO. Carolina Poll was Romney +5. So the Mittster’s lead has solidified.

  183. Waingro says:

    #186, PANTS DOWN!!!!!!!!!

  184. DW says:

    So Frank, what do you think of the Ras Sept Party ID of R 2.6?

  185. Polaris says:

    #190 I agree. The math doesn’t work. Sounds like a QC issue.

    -Polaris

  186. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    FROM MESSIAH TO PARIAH, OBAMMER IS SLIPPING,
    HIS CLASS ENVY SHTICK WITH IRONY IS DRIPPING,
    MAKE THE EVIL RICH PAY MORE IS HIS BATTLE CRY,
    TO HIS MILLIONAIRE CONTRIBUTORS, THAT PIG WON’T FLY,
    MAYBE THEY HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THAT DEAD HORSE HE’S WHIPPING.

  187. Waingro says:

    DW, you just made my day.

  188. EML says:

    182.Ballot requests are a sign of motivation.
    ================================
    There is absolutely no question, at this point, that Republicans are much more enthusiastic about voting Obama out of office than Democrats are about re-electing him.

    The question is: will enough people hold their noses and vote for Obama anyway? My gut says no, as Obama gained a lot from demographics who traditionally have low turnout, eg the Youth vote. Young people need to be motivated to vote, and they just don’t have it this time around.

  189. DW says:

    So we have been waiting for three days now for the Ras party ID numbers for Sept, and now that they are in at R 2.6 nobody wants to discuss it?

  190. Tina says:

    Indiana and NC are gone for the Obumbler.

    Polaris- what data are you basing OH? Thanks.

  191. NYCmike (Bronxie) says:

    488.Tim says:
    October 3, 2012 at 6:13 am
    #470:
    I’d be willing to bet you’re one of the myriad of posters we have here every election cycle that disappears, as soon as the election is over.

    I hope that’s the case. Because, you’re a prick. And, your posts don’t even make any sense.

    -Is Mr. 1948 around? Resorting to name calling, my stuck-in-the-past friend? I can do the same, but I’ll be laughing at the names I use for you, and they won’t be mean-spirited either. Oh yes, and your posts are filled with so much knowledge and good sense, here let me give you an example:

    #177 – sure they are, lol!

    WOW, I’ll do that 5 more times and then disappear until lunchtime, I’ll be granted a doctorate from HHR University!

  192. Polaris says:

    #195 I think it’s a positive sign since in 2004 and 2008, Ras has NAILED the partisan number. If the final demographic really is 2.6 R (which would be unprecedented), then we’ve been wasting our time the past couple of months. Romney wins in a walk.

    I just can’t make myself believe that though (maybe Scott Rasmussen can’t either). I am still sticking with D+2.

    -Polaris

  193. Waingro says:

    #200, look for SilverDbag and PPP to go nuts in snarky fashion on twitter once he releases a public article about it.

  194. Marv says:

    #187 DW,

    What numbers are those?

  195. PA Independent says:

    171 Polaris:

    I was hoping you would agree on the Ohio Absentee Ballots. As I stated, the 125,000 + or – vote margin change from 2008 has been steady now for over a week. If you look at some “swing” counties like Summit, Clark, Franklin, etc. the change is even more significant. I wonder if the narrative that Ohio is lost is to try and slow down what they KNOW they are seeing on the ground. Obama is sure trying hard to keep any other state (i.e. Iowa, Colorado) from going Romney. I think they know Ohio is too close for comfort.

  196. Polaris says:

    #201 I was commenting on the data presented in post #87 which dovetails with other numbers I have been hearing about Ohio and elsewhere (namely that D absentee requests are way down and Rs are way up).

    -Polaris

  197. Jenny - RED POLLS says:

    R+2.6 equals red polls everywhere.

    Tee hee

  198. Like I expected a diff. electorate but being polled differently. Again I can’t blame Ras for that. If the electorate in Nov. turns out to be R+anything Romney wins period. Polling conservatively a D+2.5 sample is better.

  199. Sy says:

    #107

    In regarding very limited ads in Florida, I think the Obama team is going all in on Ohio. They are redirecting money out of Florida and into Ohio.

  200. Phil says:

    NC internals

    Look reasonable to me.

    Party ID is 45-16-19 as compared tp 2008 when it was

    42-31-27

    I think that’s fairly conservative given the national changes in party ID

    Romney leads independents by 55-36 and holds his base better.

    Not worried about NC and haven’t been for several months.

  201. Howard Dean says:

    R ballot requests in IA are slowly creeping up.

  202. Transparent Dem Troll says:

    That 2.6 R was like a bombshell here at the DNC troll center. Our senior manager just scoffed at it, mocking it. But the middle managers have a deer in the headlights look as they privately admit that its very very bad for the messiah. They are keeping a stiff upper lip and are trying to not let the blog trolls see their concern.

    The strategy is for the trolls to just mock it and declare Rasmussen an R pollster who is all by himself way out on a limb.

  203. Phil says:

    Sorry

    Party ID is 45-36-19

  204. DW says:

    205 – Just Rasmussen’s Sept Party ID

  205. Polaris says:

    #214 Yeah I was about to say….. :D

    -Polaris

  206. Sy says:

    #209,

    If he is a true pollster, he will trust his numbers and methodology and let them speak for themselves. It’s counterproductive to massage your own numbers to get inline with others.

  207. Ray says:

    DW: Great news. Based on the media spin this past month, I was actually bracing for a big shift. If Ras is right.. wow.

    Regarding daily tracking, not sure what’s up with QC & the internals. But the sudden Indy swing would seem to suggest something funky rolled on. Looks like Ras pulled the erroneous swing state numbers for the moment.

  208. Polaris says:

    I think it’s safe to say that *in* *general* we are looking at at least a five point overall shift from the 2008 map to now in favor of the GOP.

    -Polaris

  209. Howard Dean says:

    IMO, Romney does NOT need a KO tonight.

    However, he needs a clear win AND we need a horrible jobs report. Which I define as under 100k and UE rate remaining the same or inching up.

    If those two things happen and the OH numbers don’t tighten I will worry.

  210. DW says:

    219 – yep…Rasmussen party ID was a cannon shot directly at the 2008 redo narrative.

  211. Tina says:

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%.

    49-50 – j/a

    Ras site now

  212. Frank says:

    Rasmussen: Part ID

    Sep: 36.8%/34.2%/29% (R/D/I)
    Aug: 37.6%/33.3%/29.2%
    Jul: 34.9%/34.0%/31.1%

    So, if he weighed his polls based on his historical average of the previous 3 months, he gets:

    36.4%/33.8%/29.8% (R/D/I)

    So cool.

    Frank

  213. Sy says:

    #220, I am bracing for a 7.9% unemployment with 500,000 leaving the job market. Next month, it will be 0% with 300 million leaving the job market.

  214. Polaris says:

    #217 I disagree a bit here. A true pollster understands the limitations of his own methedology and polling. Any poll will be wrong 1:20 just because (it’s one reason why it’s considered a bad idea to poll a poll).

    Political polling in particular (esp with the wretched 9% response rate) is as much witchcraft as science, and the pollster’s ‘feel’ for what the electorate is like is as important as any scientific analysis. This is something the major pollster really don’t like to admit and DEFINATELY don’t like to have revealed. It’s one reason why questioning their DRI models is a real sore spot with most pollsters.

    -Polaris

  215. John says:

    ADP just came out with their job numbers…162,000.
    For August ADP came out with 201,000 but the government’s numbers were 96,000 or less than half of ADP’s numbers.
    This has happened a number of times for
    ADP who has a pattern of overestimating jobs during down periods and underestimating jobs during boom periods.
    I look for the govenment to be adding approximately 75,000 jobs on their report Friday…

  216. Polaris says:

    I don’t think November’s BLS UE report will be altered at all. That one will come out 2 Nov or just days before the general election and thus too late to have any real effect.

    This one (October’s) will be the one that will be talked about during the stretch run, and will be goosed to the max. Bet on it.

    -Polaris

  217. Phil says:

    Frank,

    In 2008, did RAS weigh his polls D+7 or so based on his party ID showing which was about 7-8 all through the election.

    If so, why isn’t he weighing his polls based on his 2012 party ID finding of R+2.

    Appears to have been weighting his polls D+3 or so.

    He doesn’t trust his party ID findings this year while he did in 2008?

    I’m confused.

  218. rdelbov says:

    Howard

    true absentee ballot requests are a sign of motivated party.

    Here in TN to get an absentee ballot, by mail, I have to call or fax (you can download a request on the internet)to request an absentee ballot.

    In Iowa every D voter(contacted by Obama campaign and identified as a good voter) got an absentee ballot request form in the mail. All you had to do was call or fax or mail that request in. That takes alot less effort then the procedure I described. I suspect the obama campaign likely even provided prestamped mail in envelopes ( I know I would if that’s how I was running the program) so the effort on the voter’s part was reduced even further.

    The GOP is not running a program like this in Iowa except for those voters historically who need a mail in absentee ballot. So yes the D numbers will be huge in Iowa but really its a firm and set Obama voter who was already committed and already in that strong likely voter catagory.

  219. Phil you have to understand that if the electorate in Nov. is R+anything it will be Historic. It would make Bush’ 04 R turnout look like child’s play. You have to go back a LONG time to find an electorate w/ an R+anything turnout.

  220. Howard Dean says:

    Ryan in IA today and Biden in NC.

  221. Sy says:

    The turnout will be in the range of +3 R to +3 D. That’s a big range.

  222. DW says:

    Will Biden get it right this time or will he again think he’s in VA?

  223. Phil says:

    I agree that R+anything would be historic and unprecedented.

    Still, if RAS found D+7 or 8 in 2008 and consistently in 2012 s finding his party ID polls showing R+1 or R+2, thats significant as hell. No?

  224. Frank says:

    229.

    “Frank,

    In 2008, did RAS weigh his polls D+7 or so based on his party ID showing which was about 7-8 all through the election.

    If so, why isn’t he weighing his polls based on his 2012 party ID finding of R+2.

    Appears to have been weighting his polls D+3 or so.

    He doesn’t trust his party ID findings this year while he did in 2008?

    I’m confused.”

    Me too. When I have the opportunity, I will put today’s crosstabs into my spreadsheet with the new party ID’s (average of 3 months) and see what spits out. I actually look forward to that.

    Frank

  225. Todd McCain says:

    Was the last R+ election 1928?

  226. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Yesterday was 46/43 indies on the daily tracker and today it is 41/49. Now, what does that mean?

    Frank

  227. Hunter says:

    What was Ras’s very last party ID in 2008 and 2004?…

    Anyone know?…

  228. Marv says:

    The RAS party ID in September 2008 was D+6.3

    The RAS party ID in September 2010 was D+2.1

    The RAS party ID in September was 2012 R+2.6

    Folks, if RAS has the Sep 2012 number correct, then all national polling, even his, is understating Romney’s support and overstating Obama’s support. The erroneous assumptions made so far this cycle appear to be enough to exactly flip the top line numbers.

    It appears that RAS is purposefully being conservative in his tracking poll weighting so as not to be too far ahead of the pack……at least not until his final poll.

    Does anyone disagree with my assumptions?

  229. Sy says:

    Frank, it has to be an outlier. No other way to explain it.

  230. Hunter says:

    238…

    It means you got the numbers mixed up again?…

    Just kidding, Frank…

    Thanks for your work…

  231. Waingro says:

    Unskewedpolls should also be fun to watch, because he strictly uses Ra’s monthly Partisan ID to re-weight.

    Even with the MFM starting to tighten their DRI’s a little bit, he should show Romney leads in pretty much every poll that comes down the pipe.

  232. Robbie says:

    With Obama sitting at 49% nationally, it’s really important that Romney gets aggressive in the debate tonight. He needs to knock Obama’s national number down. I hope Romney decides to be tough tonight rather than buy into the idea he needs to humanize himself.

  233. bio mom says:

    228

    Polaris, I agree with you about Friday’s UE and jobs report. They will goose it. It is the most important one. No way they let it be anything but favorable.

  234. Waingro says:

    “The RAS party ID in September 2010 was D+2.1″

    And the 2010 electorate ended up being R+1. So he’s being even MORE conservative than he was 2 years ago.

  235. Clinton's Cigar says:

    Phil, maybe his 2008 ID numbers were in line (or close) with the rest of the kids in polling class. This time his numbers are far off those being used by the others. Maybe this has caused him to hesitate a bit?

  236. rdelbov says:

    Okay what’s the story on Party ID?

    Gallup’s survey of adults had it 35D-27R
    among adults in early september. In late september it was adjusted to 32D-28R for adults. So clearly we saw some sort of unwinding of D passion after the convention. In fact shame on Gallup for even setting party ID during a convention as coverage is so one sided during that period. Either way what’s past is prologue so to speak.

    Can RAS be correct at 2.6% R among likely voters? That’s a big number. If that number holds just watch out folks.

  237. @246 I thought the 2010 electorate was even?

  238. kim from ohio says:

    SusyQue-

    “R’s in Ohio are voting with great enthusiasm…not the same for D’s.”

    Comment by SusyQue — October 3, 2012 @ 9:20 am

    This says otherwise….

    http://www.toledoblade.com/local/2012/10/03/Early-voting-in-Toledo-opens-with-strong-turnout.html

    Michael-

    I did, in fact, mean all of the stuff I said about you. I’m glad someone you age actually HAS opinions, even if they are different than mine.

    Walt-

    No matter how many times I say it you will never believe that I knew all of the hope and change hype was garbage. I don’t understand why EITHER side would expect a politician (used in the pejorative) to fix their woes.

    As far as your list of supposedly brilliant, engaging questions, what the he!! gives you the right to insist that I answer what YOU deem important. Not to mention, they were rhetorical anyway, wouldn’t you say?

    Would you be willing to answer a lengthy rant by me disguised as “questions”?

    Also, to say that I am “blindly and totally accepting of the political candidate (I) support” is laughable, and you know it. I have said repeatedly that I don’t like a lot of the things that Obama has done. Please, find me one quote where I heaped praises on Obama. You can’t. But saying that I am a complete oblivious ideologue better serves your narrative, right?

    you say-

    “A true left leaning soul who was had no agenda mission would never bother co come to a site like HHR.”

    I have been coming to this site since 2004. I was opposed to Bush specifically because of the wars. I was undecided in 2008 until the last minute. I was undecided this year until August. If you all are willing to write off a large segment of the independent/undecided population, calling them idiots because they are not single-mindedly focusing on issues that YOU find important, good luck rebuilding your party in the next four years.

  239. Sy says:

    Robbie, if he look and act presidential, he will win. Thanks to the Obama team and MSM(although its hard to separate to two these days), Romney has a low bar to get over.

  240. Redneckman says:

    Marv, you said exactly what I was thinking. That’s the only reason I can think of why he is using D+ 2 or 3 turnout models.

  241. Robbie says:

    Still, if RAS found D+7 or 8 in 2008 and consistently in 2012 s finding his party ID polls showing R+1 or R+2, thats significant as hell. No?

    Comment by Phil — October 3, 2012 @ 10:36 am

    This could be the cell phone issue at work. Data suggests 30% of households are cell phone only so that could be the reason Rasmussen is hedging his bets on party ID.

  242. oh christ this Kim troll is back. sucks out all the fun.

  243. Waingro says:

    #246, my bad. Just looked: you are correct. But still a shift of 2 points there.

  244. Rockefeller Republican says:

    On Election Day, Romney will carry OH. He’ll carry the Columbus and Cincy suburbs/exurbs comfortably, win BIG in eastern/southern/and northwestern OH (outside of Toledo)… Cleveland turnout will be lower for Obama than four years ago and Mitt will help his cause by running well in the suburban ring in Cuyahoga County and neighboring counties.

  245. Polaris says:

    Here is the difference. In 2008, there was a lot of annecdotal evidence that there really was a Dem/Youth wave with the registration drives, lines in the street, and so forth. You also had the fact that the GOP became very unpopular after the Lehman Bros crash (and it’s worth noting that McCain still massively outperformed Bush’s JA even when losing).

    Also in 1996 the Partisan ID was D+5 and historically Dem ID was double digits for much of the 20th century (1980 and before) prior to the post 1980 ‘realignment’.

    So while D+7 was unprecedented it wasn’t AS unprecedented and it was an assumption that went well with what the MSM wanted to believe anyway.

    R+3 is completely different. It is unprecedented I think since the early 20th century (perhaps even 19th) and it is very much brutally contrary to what the MSM/other pollsters want to believe. I don’t think Scott Rasmussen believes it…and honestly I don’t think I do either. I would love to be wrong mind you, but I will be conservative and stick with D+2.

    -Polaris

  246. Tina says:

    Did one of the smart pundits say that turnout could be a repeat of 2010?

  247. Sy says:

    I think 2012 will be like 2004 …a push.

  248. “R+3 is completely different. It is unprecedented I think since the early 20th century (perhaps even 19th) and it is very much brutally contrary to what the MSM/other pollsters want to believe. I don’t think Scott Rasmussen believes it…and honestly I don’t think I do either. I would love to be wrong mind you, but I will be conservative and stick with D+2.”

    100% agree

  249. Robbie says:

    251.Robbie, if he look and act presidential, he will win. Thanks to the Obama team and MSM(although its hard to separate to two these days), Romney has a low bar to get over.

    Comment by Sy — October 3, 2012 @ 10:43 am

    I would say if the news coverage tonight and tomorrow is both men conducted a respectful debate, then Obama probably won.

    I’m not arguing for Romney to deck Obama in the mouth, but I think aggressiveness works in his favor. I think some of the holdouts want to see some passion from him.

  250. John says:

    Wood County, Ohio.
    As goes Wood County, Ohio so goes Ohio. As goes Ohio so goes the Republican nominee.
    http://www.npr.org/2012/09/29/162019588/ohio-county-a-historic-predictor-of-states-vote
    Wood County, Ohio has successfully predicted every election since 1960 except 1976. Wood County has been called “a microcosm of Ohio and even a microcosm of the United States”. The county is evenly divided among D’s, R’s an I’s.
    In 2008 Obama took this county by getting more absentee ballot requests early….
    5491 to 4004.
    As of yesterday, the Republicans are leading 33% to 31% over the Democrats in the early absenteen ballot requests…

  251. Phil says:

    Clearly, Scott Rasmussen is not trusting his party ID numbers he’s been getting all year.

    I understand his hesitation considering the hisorical models. I absolutely understand it.

    The fact remains, however, that his actual polling numbers indicate a shift from D+7 to R+2 and they’ve been consistent throughout the summer and now in September.

    The question remains, what does this actually mean for party ID on election day?

    It’s the 64K dollar question and the election is riding on the answer.

  252. Sy says:

    #262 Wow, I am more surprise NPR went with the story with that result.

  253. as the Roanoke College pollster said yesterday on Hewitt’s show, “I don’t know and you don’t know.”

  254. Polaris says:

    #263 Unfortunately the answer is, “We don’t know.”

    The one thing I can say with total confidence is that this will NOT be 2008 redux. It won’t even be close to that.

    -Polaris

  255. Marv says:

    #238 Frank

    That means that somebody typed the wrong Indie numbers into their software system. It appears that the Indie number is exactly flipped. An Obama 49-41 lead among Indies is not statistical noise or the result of an outlier. Even outliers aren’t that big. IMO, it’s the result of human error.

    If someone else has an opinion, or if I am completely wrong, I’d like to hear about it.

  256. Resident A-Hole says:

    http://www.npr.org/2012/09/29/162019588/ohio-county-a-historic-predictor-of-states-vote

    Suck my Wood (Co.), Kim.

    Then go make MD his sammie!

  257. Phil says:

    I’ll happily take D+2 on election day.

    Gladly!

  258. Polaris says:

    #238/#267 I originally thought it was an outlier but Marv is right Frank. The numbers don’t work as the partisan splits are written.

    If you could please write to Scott (Ras) and tell him to check his quality control….because I agree with Marv. It looks like a DB error (someone probably accidentally swapped the Obama and Romney indie results).

    -Polaris

  259. EML says:

    251.Robbie, if he look and act presidential, he will win.
    =================================
    I agree with this. Everyone knows Obama’s presidency has been a failure. People are scared to vote Republican because they have bought into the Hollywood/MSM story that Republicans are evil rich people who hate women, gays, and minorities. A significant number of Obama voters will be voting for him simply on the matter of gay marriage. They equate it to the civil rights movement. They couldn’t care less if the country goes bankrupt under Obama.

    Romney just has to stand on the national stage next to Obama and show that he isn’t scary or crazy (like the rest of the GOP nominees this year). That will be enough to win him the election. He doesn’t need to go after Obama like a rabid dog.

  260. Hunter says:

    @ 262…

    Thanks….

    Interesting indicator…

  261. Sy says:

    According to the NPR story, here are the changes from 2008:

    2008
    58% D
    42% R

    2012
    31% D
    33% R

  262. Polaris says:

    #273 That’s very striking….and very much in line with the changes I am hearing for the rest of Ohio.

    -Polaris

  263. PA Independent says:

    250 Kim:

    You referenced a Toledo Blade article about early voting in Ohio. That article did point to increased turnout in a VERY Democratic precinct in Toledo. However, when compared to the entire state, a different perspective becomes apparent. The election for Ohio will not be won or lost in Toledo. It will be won or lost in Franklin County (Columbus) and suburbs and in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and suburbs and possibly places like Summit County near Akron. I am not sure how the “coal country” of the Southeast will vote. In any event, I don’t know if we should put too much stock in a Toledo precinct that is not even close to a swing district. I am not trying to be overly argumentative.

  264. mark oh says:

    The Toledo Blade is a liberal rag…alway’s has been.

  265. rdelbov says:

    How about those Marist polls for VA-OH-FL?

    I did a little quick math and determined that overall the blend of voters in those states are 1% more D then 2008. On a national basis that would be a +9D +8D electorate.

    Yet even KOS/PPP came in with a 4% or 5% shift from 2008 electorate on a nation wide basis.

    So if state polls are still showing a stronger D electorate then 2008 one can only wonder why? One also knows exactly why the polls are still blue at the state level!!!

  266. Sy says:

    #277 some say Obama has been outspending Romney in the swing states, thus the difference.

  267. kim from ohio says:

    As for Wood County-

    I grew up out there. It goes from rural farm county, affluent suburbs to trailer parks to BGSU. I’m guessing that the big push to register/vote on the same day has not happened on campus yet. Just a guess. And I do think that Wood County is trending slightly more democratic over the last 30 years. Not because of the University, but because of the Perrysburg suburbs growing and being filled with more educated (grad. jd. phd. etc)voters. We all know they were brainwashed by their liberal professors.

  268. Robbie says:

    Quin Hillyer has a smart take on what the first debate means.

    http://spectator.org/blog/2012/10/02/romney-can-win-election-withou

  269. SusyQue says:

    By gosh, does Romney have a message?!
    Jennifer Rubin

    After weeks of bemoaning the fuzzy message and lackluster Boston campaign apparatus, conservatives should breath a sigh of relief regarding the Romney-Ryan campaign. No, it’s not just because the polls are tightening (Right Turn hasn’t taken early polling all that seriously, if you’ve noticed). It is because just in the nick of time the Romney-Ryan ticket has found its message: President Obama has been a killer for the middle class and it’s only going to get worse if we don’t set a new course.
    You can rightly say that this was the campaign’s intent all along. After all, Romney’s five-point plan was to bolster the middle class. But it was hardly clear until the last week or so that this was the central theme for the remainder of the race and a message that could potentially cut through the media fog.
    Romney is now releasing on TV his well-received “Many Americans” ad:

  270. Robbie says:

    Jon Ward?@jonward11

    Ginsberg says Romney can win without Ohio

    Ben Ginsberg is Romney’s chief campaign lawyer just as he was for Bush in 2000 and 2004.

    Saying they can win without Ohio suggests to me they think Ohio is going to be one tough nut to crack.

  271. kim from ohio says:

    @ 275 I totally agree with you. All of the votes in Ohio count the same so ONLY showing the Lucas County early voting station is pretty misleading. There were even a bunch of fools spending the night outside of the voting station in an RV. Will it be like that every night? Heck no! However, I was just trying to show SusyQue that it was not quite as R landslidey as she was thinking.

  272. Tina says:

    The killer for the middle class meme has been confirmed by the Vice Dummy.

  273. Jeff P says:

    If the ID is a push or R+1,2 this will be FUN to watch. I almost cannot believe it.

  274. Marv says:

    Tina,

    I thought that you were in the field on secret mission somewhere.

  275. Tina says:

    It’s October Marv. I will go dark later today. Not watching the Dog and Pony Show.

  276. GeorgeIllinois says:

    All Romney needs to do tonight is to look and act like someone who is ready and able to be President.

    Any other points he scores are just icing on the cake.

  277. kim from ohio says:

    From the NPR story-

    Wood County has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans who are registered, Reger says, though Republicans have a light advantage. It also has a large degree of independents — almost 60,000 — which is more than the number of registered Democrats and Republicans there combined.

    I wouldn’t put much stock in this. In those statistics “independent” just means “I haven’t bothered to vote in a primary” as you declare your party here by actually voting in a party’s primary (which is why Josh Mandel and Mitt Romney fliers keep showing up in my mailbox) I guarantee that a lot of the people who do not bother voting in a primary in Wood County are the BGSU college students. It’s hard enough to drag them out of bed to vote in the General election.

  278. Marv says:

    Tina,

    Roger that. I appreciate your service to our country.

  279. Things No One Says says:

    I wonder what Kim has to say!

  280. SusyQue says:

    Rass e-mail just arrived:

    Just 17% View Debates as Very Important to How They Will Vote
    Voters are attaching less significance to the outcome of tonight’s first presidential debate compared to the kick-off debate four years ago.

    Daily Presidential Tracking Poll: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

    Obama’s Monthly Approval Rating Is Up A Point in September

    September Employment Index Rebounds Slightly From Recent Low

    56% Say Schools Should Teach Both Sex Ed and Abstinence

  281. rdelbov says:

    Jeff #258

    even would be brutal for Ds. How many polls are showing a 7 or 8 % shift from 2008 exits right now?

    Say about zero?

  282. kim from ohio says:

    All Romney needs to do tonight is to look and act like someone who is ready and able to be President.

    Any other points he scores are just icing on the cake.

    Comment by GeorgeIllinois — October 3, 2012 @ 11:20 am

    I agree. He has to show swing voters that he is not a puppy eating vampire and I think that he will get a boost. He just needs to prove that he is at least remotely relatable to most Americans. I’m guessing he has been coached not to make another 10K bet? Obama needs to keep showing that he looks down on the 47%. It is as simple as that. Most people won’t vote for someone that they think looks down on them.

  283. Phil says:

    Mo senate

    McCaskill 51 Akin 45

    Both below water in favorability.

    My thanks to dead ender Akin.

    Asshat moron.

    Senator Buck clone, but dumber if that’s even possible.

  284. Surfnut says:

    Tonight, the final nail is put in the Romney campaign coffin. The country already dislikes him and the debate against our President will just confirm what they already know.

  285. Phil says:

    the above poll was RAS

    phuck Akin.

  286. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Most people won’t vote for someone that they think looks down on them.

    Comment by kim from ohio — October 3, 2012 @ 11:27 am

    Not that they would vote for him anyway.

  287. keep your head in the sand! says:

    I wonder what Kim has to say!

    Comment by Things No One Says — October 3, 2012 @ 11:24 am

    You’re right! Romney will win in a landslide!!

  288. Guy Behind Things No One Says says:

    You’re right! Romney will win in a landslide!!

    Comment by keep your head in the sand! — October 3, 2012 @ 11:30 am

    Actually I think Obama will win, EPIC FAIL on the response

  289. kim from ohio says:

    Most people won’t vote for someone that they think looks down on them.

    Comment by kim from ohio — October 3, 2012 @ 11:27 am

    Not that they would vote for him anyway.

    Comment by INDIA PAPA 727 — October 3, 2012 @ 11:29 am

    I’m saying he has the opportunity to convince undecideds that he does NOT look down on them. If he can do this he can get votes. If they think he does look down on them they will not vote for him.

    But if you are specifically speaking of me, you’re right, my vote is pretty much sealed.

  290. Things No One Says says:

    I wonder what Kim wants from a guy she won’t vote for?

  291. Things No One Says says:

    Kim is the super extraordinaire in political strategy

  292. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    There once was a trolling little slut,
    Called himself surfnut,
    As a parody of the brain dead left,
    With grey matter he is bereft,
    Come NOV. his mouth we will shut.

  293. “There once was a trolling little slut,
    Called himself surfnut,”

    I think your confusing Kim

  294. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    But if you are specifically speaking of me, you’re right, my vote is pretty much sealed.

    Comment by kim from ohio

    As is the space between your tympanic membranes.

  295. jason says:

    Hey Rockefeller Troll, f–k off!

  296. can’t we get Kim to f*** instead? she may be even more annoying then Wobbie Tingles.

  297. michael says:

    Jason I am in school where is explosive liberal. I want to rub it in his face that he is wrong on polling!

  298. jason says:

    ” But if you are specifically speaking of me, you’re right, my vote is pretty much sealed.”

    Are you sure?

    You might consider these guys, more up your alley.

    http://stewartalexanderforpresident2012.org/

  299. Ron Burgundy says:

    Romney will win in an EV landslide. He could go on TV and drool tonight and still win on Nov 6th. Electorate will be R +2 and yes this will be a historic watershed election. Get your champagne ready. America will be taken back from the freeloaders on Nov6th.

  300. hughhewitt says:

    Hugh Hewitt Says:

    If you haven’t already done so, read through Paul Ryan’s comments to me yesterday. They provide a complete preview of tonight’s debate, especially of the emerging theme of a “choice election.” That’s high ground for the Romney/Ryan campaign, and Mitt Romney should get there early and stay there. The country has two very different, radically diverging paths in front of it. President Obama’s path begins with a second recession, a recession that might not be over by the next presidential election, so traumatic will be the combined consequences of his tax hikes and the Obamacare roll-out. (The recession has already hit the Euro-zone, as the New York Times reports this morning.) Governor Romney is promising a return to the low tax growth of the ’80s and ’90s, combined with entitlement reform to save us from the Greek example. This isn’t a tough choice, but the president will do all he can to prevent focus on it (and on his abysmal record) while Mitt Romney needs to refuse to get into sideshows with the president.
    The latest polling and especially its direction is very encouraging for Romney, and represents the turning of the race and the awakening of the electorate to the fact that the choosing is five weeks away. (The National Journal survey showing a dead heat stilll had a D 7 sample.) Romney has the perfect opportunity to accelerate the momentum of the turn towards him tonight. (Yes, I know, more junk from the Marist folks on Ohio. Hope you heard yesterday’s conversation with Cuyohoga County GOP Chairman Rob Frost. Like the Roanok College Survey of Virginia, the Marist poll is simply nonsense based on absurd samples.)
    I will be broadcasting from Dallas, and will conduct a special 90 minute broadcast after the debate with some of our regular experts in order to give you relief from the usual suspects on television. A button will be up later on the sidebar that allows you to listen to the debate and the post-debate show.

  301. jason says:

    311. Sorry but Kim is needed as gofer for the A-hole Club…..

    I can’t think of any use for Rockefeller Troll.

  302. jason says:

    ” The country has two very different, radically diverging paths in front of it”

    Exactly.

    It still comes back to this.

    Will we choose the nanny state or free enterprise.

    Stay tuned.

  303. Kimmy's vibrator says:

    Damn it! She has been neglecting me again!

  304. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Will we choose the nanny state or free enterprise.

    Stay tuned.

    Comment by jason

    When the fed nipples outnumber the providers thereof,that answers itself.

  305. DW says:

    from the video last night in case you missed it:

    “The people down in New Orleans they don’t care about as much!” Obama shouts in the video, which was shot in June of 2007 at Hampton University in Virginia. By contrast, survivors of Sept. 11 and Hurricane Andrew received generous amounts of aid, Obama explains. The reason? Unlike residents of majority-black New Orleans, the federal government considers those victims “part of the American family.”

    Obama begins his address with “a special shout out” to Jeremiah Wright, the Chicago pastor who nearly derailed Obama’s campaign months later when his sermons attacking Israel and America and accusing the U.S. government of “inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color” became public. To the audience at Hampton, Obama describes Wright as, “my pastor, the guy who puts up with me, counsels me, listens to my wife complain about me. He’s a friend and a great leader. Not just in Chicago, but all across the country.”

  306. SusyQue says:

    I feel sorry (not really) for the trolls on HHR who cling to president liar, liar, pants on fire.
    What on earth could the attraction be? I understand the AA attraction, to many it is a loyality to the race thing. Thank God for the good example the conservative AA’s display. They are the role models for the AA youth.

  307. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Rules for Bullsh*t Bingo:

    1. Before Barrack Obama’s next televised speech, print your “Bullsh*t Bingo”

    2. Check off the appropriate block when you hear one of those words/phrases.

    3. When you get five blocks horizontally, vertically, or diagonally, stand up and shout “BULLSH*T!”

  308. SusyQue says:

    #319…sounds like Bitter to me!

  309. Robbie says:

    I’m so glad Akin has told us staying in the race wasn’t about him. Of course, whenever someone says it’s not about me, it’s always about me.

    The vanity candidates have been a killer in the Senate. Akin joins Angle, O’Donnell, and, to some extent, Buck as people who cost Republicans a majority.

  310. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Upon the nipple of the republic we make our stand,
    Suckling theron is for the common man,
    Cradle to grave security is our sine qua non,
    It’s promised to us and all our spawn,
    The welfare state is our law of the land.

    A plethora of sucklers, a paucity of nipples,
    When the money runs out there will be ripples,
    The golden goose we have plucked,
    The taxpayers they have been hoodwinked :smile:
    We have become a nation of moral cripples.

  311. Waingro says:

    From NumbersMuncher’s twitter feed:

    ?@NumbersMuncher:

    Last 2 elections in OH have had smaller margins than nat’l. But we’re supposed to believe/run with NBC poll w/ O+8 when their nat’l is O+3?

    ?@NumbersMuncher:

    I believe Romney is down 3ish in OH atm. I’d believe Marist if 2010 didn’t happen, but just like 08 it happened. He’s got work to do tho.2/2

    ?@NumbersMuncher:

    In a D+5 sample for Ohio, PPP has Obama up 4. But by all means lets all focus on Marist w/ O+8 when their other two show movement to R. 1/2

  312. DW says:

    Obama continues: “We need additional federal public transportation dollars flowing to the highest need communities. We don’t need to build more highways out in the suburbs,” where, the implication is, the rich white people live. Instead, Obama says, federal money should flow to “our neighborhoods”: “We should be investing in minority-owned businesses, in our neighborhoods, so people don’t have to travel from miles away.”

    The solution, Obama says, is a series of new federal programs, including one to teach punctuality to the poor: “We can’t expect them to have all the skills they need to work. They may need help with basic skills, how to shop, how to show up for work on time, how to wear the right clothes, how to act appropriately in an office. We have to help them get there.”

    See, here is the proof. Four years ago, I kept posting here the quote from Obama’s book, where he positively portrayed his preacher, and quotes him saying, “WHITE FOLK’S GREED RUNS A WORLD IN NEED!” And I regularly had trolls come here and mock me saying that Obama was just reading his own book, but quoting what his pastor had said, and didn’t necessarily believe that himself.

    Well this Hampton U speech from 2007 makes it crystal clear that Obama DOES believe what his preacher said, that WHITE FOLK’S GREED RUNS A WORLD IN NEED.

    I agree that this campaign needs to be about the economy…and I understand that this Rev Wright stuff got little traction in 2008; however, the reason it got little traction is people just didn’t want to believe it could be true. But we have had FOUR YEARS of Obama proving that it was true, and so now the replay of this speech should remind everyone what Obama is all about. It should hurt him a LOT, but I expect it will only hurt him a little. But still, every vote counts, and this video does hurt Obama and cost him a few votes.

  313. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    But still, every vote counts, and this video does hurt Obama and cost him a few votes.

    Comment by DW — October 3, 2012 @ 12:01 pm

    Will the MSM air it?? If not, not many many will see it

  314. DW says:

    329 – which is why it won’t hurt him a lot. However, this is the sort of stuff that gets traction at the water cooler discussions in workplaces. Kind of in the same category as the 2016 film.

  315. DW says:

    In the prepared version distributed to reporters, Obama’s speech ends this way:

    “America is going to survive. We won’t forget where we came from. We won’t forget what happened 19 months ago, 15 years ago, thousands of years ago.”

    That’s not what he actually said. Before the audience at Hampton, Obama ends his speech this way:

    “America will survive. Just like black folks will survive. We won’t forget where we came from. We won’t forget what happened 19 months ago, or 15 years ago, or 300 years ago.”

    Three hundred years ago. It’s a reference the audience understood.

  316. Toledo Steve says:

    I haven’t posted here since 2004, but noticed all the talk about Toledo and Ohio: I lived in Toledo for 30 years and still work there, and I can confirm that Toledo is a heavily Democratic town, much like Detroit, with almost no Republican presence. Wood County is a rural area that leans Republican. The Blade article about early voting is almost totally meaningless, since the precinct the Blade chose to highlight (purposely, no doubt) is probably about 90% Democratic. And yes, the Blade is a “liberal rag” and has been since the ’80′s. I went to the Romney rally in Toledo last week, and the venue was as packed and enthusiastic as any rally I’ve ever been to, including 2004, yet the Blade reported that only 4,000 people attended (probably about half the actual number). They also claimed that Romney was greeted by about 75 protesters, when in fact the actual number of protesters was probably less than a dozen. I even emailed the Blade a pic I took of the sorry-assed protesters, proving that their article was wildly wrong, but got no response. Anything written by the liberal hacks at the Blade should be taken with a large grain of salt.
    More importantly, there is very, very little visible enthusiasm for Obama around here. No signs, no stickers, no nothing. Also, a couple of online polls the Blade has run on their website showed Romney and O running close to even among Blade readers about various issues. Again, grain of salt, but the point is that if Obama is even running anywhere close to even in Toledo then he’s in serious trouble in the rest of the state.
    Ohio will go Romney, I have no doubt.

  317. jason says:

    The NPR poll saved the RCP average from falling below 3. Currently at 3.1.

  318. SusyQue says:

    Judging a person by their color is beyond foolish, beyond stupid.
    Martin Luther King nailed it….it’s character, never color! Your color comes from your creator…he likes diversity…just look at nature.