Romney Now Up 6% In Gallup Poll (Plus Polls From WA, NV, VA, and WI)
I am a little late to this party, but it is worth mentioning that Mitt Romney has now opened up a 6% lead over Barack Obama in the latest edition of the Gallup national tracking poll.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking)
Mitt Romney (R) 51%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%
This poll was done October 10-16 among likely voters. Scott Rasmussen gave us new polls for Nevada and Washington.
PRESIDENT – NEVADA (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 47%PRESIDENT – WASHINGTON (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 55%
Mitt Romney (R) 42%
The NV poll was done October 15th and the WA poll was done October 14th, both among 500 likely voters. One more poll I will mentioned right now is the latest poll from Marquette Law School that has Romney wiping out what was once a 14% deficit to close the gap in Wisconsin to a single percentage point.
PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 48%US SENATE – WISCONSIN (Marquette)
Tommy Thompson (R) 46%
Tammy Baldwin (D) 45%
This poll was done October 11-14 among likely voters. And in case you did not think I read the comments, it was more a case is I kept forgetting to post it. We did get a new poll from the state of Virginia from Kimball Political Consulting that claims Mitt Romney is up by double digits in Virginia.
US SENATE – VIRGINIA (Kimball)
Mitt Romney (R) 53%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%US SENATE – VIRGINIA (Kimball)
George Allen (R) 50%
Tim Kaine (D) 43%
I’m not sure I quite believe Romney has a lead that large, but there it is. This poll was done October 12-13 among 696 likely voters.
First
Not sure if this was posted.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/debate-aftermath-romney-scores-with-actual-voters-expands-the-map/2012/10/17/06e0c12e-1869-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_blog.html
Debate aftermath: Romney scores with actual voters, expands the map.
Maybe I have missed something but has Dave decided not to update his EV count anymore?
Twenty Days to Nov.6-2012 less than 3 weeks!
#4…Sharon…You can send him a email and ask him
click on “contact” at the top of the site…a blank email will appear addressed to Dave W.
Some cable numbers I am seeing
FoxNews-11.1 million
CNN-5.8 million
MSNBC-4.9 million
That is a total of 21.8 million from the three cable networks.
Network ratings:
NBC-13.9 million
ABC-12.5 million
CBS-8.9 million
Total-35.3 million on the big three networks
Missing CNBC/Fox Broadcast/Spanish stations
Grand Total so far is 57.1 million with other yet to chime in
Drudge
Obama campaign co-chair Eva Longoria promotes vulgar anti-Romney tweet
Threats made to kill Romney….pray for his protection from the alinsky group.
ESPN too.
Paul Ryan as I’m sure you know is from a “very swing” district south of Milwaukee. He usually carries the district with a vote percentage in the upper 50?s.
==================================
Since winning the open seat in 1998, Paul Ryan’s share of the vote in WI-01: 67%, 67%, 65%, 63%, 64%, 68%. He won 64-35 in 2008 when Obama took the district 51-48. There are tens of thousands if not 100,000 votes there Ryan could flip.
“Threats made to kill Romney” They are becoming unhinged.
When will California report its jobs #s from last week? This week?
Gallup does not hard-weight, correct? They report who answered the phone, right?
#7 – Fox also had their business station airing the dabate, which actually drew a bigger audience than both CNN and MSNBC.
I suppose NBC/Marist or CBS/NYT/Quin will start my day off on the wrong foot with thier usual Thursday garbage dump. Maybe we’ll be spared this week, but I doubt it.
From the tail end of the last thread;
Bitter, Jul does not fight me, as I give him quality advice on his firearms purchases. Think of my services as a sort of “Fast and Furious” operation.
Thompson will defeat the militant lesbian, thereby ensuring a GOP gain. Romney will carry the state as well as he sweeps the industrial midwest with wins in OH and MI.
Calling for more teachers, Pres Obama says “We don’t have to collect a bunch of binders to find qualified…women ready to learn and teach.”
Umm…Those are called resumes, Mr. President…
Something foreign to you, I know, given your overwhelming lack of business/management experience…
But you still need these things called resumes when looking to fill positions…
…and TT will serve us well with his “moderate conservatism,” right?
YAY! Thanks Dave W for drawing attention to the Kimball poll!
The Gallup national poll in a way confirms the VA poll by Kimball.
@EWErickson
Suddenly the left is quoting Rasmussen in a way they ridiculed the right for doing.
FOXNEWS NEARS ALL-TIME VIEWERSHIP HIGH…
Hey Rockefeller Troll, f–k off!
Does the Nevada internals show 14% spread of independents to Obama
Nate Silver says Obama is going to get a bounce.
apparently so but the SUSA NV for the same day shows a 18% gap for Romney among indies.
So who is right?
@25he also said Romney wouldn’t sustain a lead after the 1st debate
25 – he also said Romney was only going to get a temporary bounce after the first debate. Silver is clueless.
Nate Silver is a respected statician at the New York Times. He wouldn’t sugarcoat data.
Silver never disappoints. He and Andrew Sullivan need to get a room.
Nate Silver is servicing Candy Cowley right about now.
Never, Never….
Kos has finally dropped off the side of the ledge. He’s now living full-time in his own reality.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – I’m not cruel by nature, but I can’t wait to watch him cry.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/17/1145895/-The-re-emergence-of-dick-Romney?detail=hide
#26, did SUSA poll NV last night, after the conclusion of the debate?
Invite Chris Mathews. Make it a three way.
@29 Silver argued w/ his own data in 2010 and lied about the fact he had 2008 O internals in 08, he’s a hack.
Lookie here folks we got a new troll, remember what Transparent Dem Troll said earlier. He’s not responsible for trolls today.
Is Silver still selectively being fed Obama internals?
29 Nate Silver lucked out because his bogus model happened to work in a Dem wave year. He sucked in 2010 and blamed it on House races being difficult to poll.
#29: Nate Silver is an Obama hack. HE HAS ALWAYS been an Obama hack. That’s why Obama’s team gave Silver their internals during the 2008 race. Obama’s team trusts Silver to provide the spin they need to help win the race. Silver is an integral part of the MSM-Obama narrative group.
Silver went after Ras hard, now he’s defending him because it shows what he wants. Hack.
website i use has Romney +210 – seems like obvious bet isnt this even at best right now
Silver and Jensen. Two peas in a pod. Intregal parts ff the Obama propaganda machine.
-28 interruptions for Romney
-9 for Obama
-4 blatantly left leaning questions
-Crowley offers backup for obama
-over 3 minutes more speaking time for Obama
-Michelle Obama clapping
-Obama’s long list of non-answers
Nate silver is as much a statistician as dr. Phil is a doctor. One economics degree does not make you a statistician nor does a stint in economic consulting. He’s one of the many pseudo intellectuals that make up the giant liberal circle jerk of the new york times. It pains me as someone who did meaningful statistical work to hear his trite, shallow analysis.
I am still trying to figure out how the so called “binder” quote is some kind of gaffe…anyone care to enlighten me?
been out all day
what is the consensus
major win by obama
or
not?
Wow Obama up by 1 in WI, down by only 11 in Virginia.
I am excited.
Must have been a big Obama win. Tingles said so.
“Nate Silver is a respected statician at the New York Times. He wouldn’t sugarcoat data.”
hahahahhahah!
Respected by whom?
He is a glorified baseball statistician who toes the NYT meme that if Dems are not ahead, they should be.
““Threats made to kill Romney” They are becoming unhinged.”
the odd part is …
romney is truly a nice man.
even the dems in massachusetts have no personal issue with him,
and
he is NOT a strict partisan.
he is a fiscal con … in his personal life he is a social con, but he does NOT govern that way.
here in VA SuperPacs now running hard with the “if we don’t get it done in three years it will be a one term proposition” ad, and its devestating for Obama.
At Hotair, somebody wrote that the Obumbler Administration is pulling out of FL and NC. Any links?
Hope – I wish that Obama would get 60 more minutes than Romney in every debate. He says nothing and people zone out.
47. Not
@53 POLITICO reported him pulling out of NC, haven’t seen anything about FL
Let’s say, I believe NC, but not yet FL.
“47. Not”
is that just you
or the general media message?
#47 lisab,
Yesterday, the discussion was that Obama was better on style points and Romney flubbed the Libya exchange.
Today, the discussion is that that Obama lied about Libya and the lie was facilitated by Crowley, which will now cost Obama the election.
That pretty much sums up the whole deal.
If you have $300 million like Romney to spend in 3 weeks, how would you do it?
” Nate Silver is a respected statician at the New York Times.”
Good oxymoron!
Let me see if I can come up with one.. hmmm … ok.. how about:
” Fair and balanced host at MSNBC “
my impression was that obama won
mostly because of the moderator saying obama did call the attack a terrorist attack the day after … clearly she rabbit punched romney
AND
to me it looked coordinated! how did she just happen to know what the transcript said?
but … it seemed to me that obama said stuff that will come back to haunt him over the coming days
@60 i’d take Kate Upton out on a date
I am still trying to figure out how the so called “binder” quote is some kind of gaffe…anyone care to enlighten me?
Comment by SoHope — October 17, 2012 @ 3:29 pm
B/c it reinforces the supposed public view that Mitt binds women (literally), preventing them from leaving the home to find work.
“If you have $300 million like Romney to spend in 3 weeks, how would you do it?”
i would buy ohio
and with the other $299 million run ads in other swing states
” you have $300 million like Romney to spend in 3 weeks, how would you do it?”
I would spend half of it on booze, broads and gambling.
The rest I would probably fritter away.
#60 SoHope,
If I were Romney, I would buy that $35 million estate in Hawaii that Obama thinks Pritzker is going to buy for him. Michele and her mom have their hearts set on that place already.
#60: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Spend every dime on GOTV, ads, flyers, yard signs, rallies, etc…all in OH.
Romney has one of two paths to win…take OH, or take three of the following four: IA, NV, WI, NH. I think the easier path is to take OH.
Oh you mean for the election.
I would spend it all in Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.
A little in FL and VA for insurance.
the thing about romney is that when he was governor he often delegated searches for positions to committees.
judges for example were chosen by committees based not on the judges party affiliation or position on abortion, but on their experience as prosecutors.
is that just you
or the general media message?
There is a good post illustrating this earlier today..
Let me see if I can find it.
They have to jump on something – binderwhatever, because of Benghazigate. Only if the Cow Beotch had STFU.
i really hope romney wins
obama makes me fear for the united states, taiwan, and israel
Taiwan?!
Author…you got no chance with Kate.
She is MINE.
Now back off.
For Lisab – since she never understands my new nicknames, Cow Beotch is Candy “Eat Crow” Crowley.
mostly on ads? GOTV? TV? Internet? Printed? Mailings? Skywritting? What do we spend it on?
Meanwhile, in a local Iowa paper, thirteen Iowans take out a full-page ad to apologize for voting for Obama in 2008, throwing their support to Romney.
http://abetteriowa.desmoinesregister.com/2012/10/17/noble-in-newspaper-ad-iowa-voters-apologize-for-supporting-obama-in-08/
“Taiwan?”
china wants it
in the past we promised to defend it.
if china attacked taiwan, i seriously doubt obama would lift a finger.
” Cow Beotch is Candy “Eat Crow” Crowley.”
actually i got that one
If I had 300 million? For the election?
50 for GOTV
50 for NH, CO, NV
50 for IA, WI, & MI
50 for FL & VA
75 for OH
25 for PA
I would write a check for $10 million to Thompson, Allen, Mack, and Mandel….that’s 40 mil
how about a $1,000,000 donation to sesame street?
I would spend 1 Mill by hiring a kill squad to take out big bird
Ok, for days most polls have been leaning toward Romney and Dave does nothing with his EV count. Then, today, I sign on and see that he has given 11 more to Obama. Felt like someone kicked me in the stomach. Is there anyone that can please explain to me how Dave arrives at his EV count?
85 – why do you take that so seriously? Just be cool. Nov 6 is what matters.
Good oxymoron!
Let me see if I can come up with one.. hmmm … ok.. how about:
MD stands tall.
Zing!
Bitterlaw sitting pretty!
zing …
this is fun
Romney is up 6 because he is up by 22 in the deep Red South,Continue to suck each others Dick right wingnuts! LOL
I expect the Electoral College will be over 300 for Obama but maybe 1-2% in the popular vote because of the Red states.
No worries in WI at all after Mitts debacle last night!
86….MD…just curious as to how he arrives at his numbers. Doesn’t seem to be very consistent to me but then you are right….November 6 is what matters.
The questioner who went back to Bush is now undecided. She is voting for the Obumbler and was a plant.
I would hire as many canvassers as I could.
I would also spend a million or so in urban radio stations in swing states with disgruntled AA voters about Obama via a shell orgainization headed by black ministers. It would deflate black turn out and maybe pick up a few.
“I expect the Electoral College will be over 300 for Obama but maybe 1-2% in the popular vote because of the Red states.” That is just crazy talk.
lisab, stay sharp!
Bazinga!
You dimwits probably think Mitt won the debate last night,Only Dick Morris agrees! LOL
Comment by Dick Nixon — October 17, 2012 @ 3:56 pm
“Yo Homies”, we’ve missed you
your favorite taiwanese cartoon of the second debate
fairly accurate i guess
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Qb4UHFlzvpo
OHIO JOE Ohio is in the bag for Obama get over it,Obama could still win Florida and or Virginia…But dream on sweet cheeks!
“You dimwits probably think Mitt won the debate last night,” If you are trying to say otherwise, I think you are the dimwit to put it politely.
C
lisab do you Kiss your momma with that mouth?
lisab, here you go, posted by peasant earlier:
From Battleground Watch (OUCH):
1.Dan Balz, Washington Post: “There’s One Other Weakness In Obama’s Message: The Question Of What His Second-Term Agenda Actually Is.”
2.Mark Halperin, TIME: “The President Did Not Lay Out A Second Term Agenda”
3.Joe Scarborough, MSNBC: Obama “Has Laid Out No Plan For The Next Four Years. No Plan.”
4.David Gregory, NBC News: Obama Was “A Little Light On His Vision For The Future.”
5.John King, CNN: “I’ve Been Traveling The Last Few Weeks, This Is What People Say, I Want To Vote For Him, But He Hasn’t Told Me What He’s Going To Do.”
6.Tom Friedman, The New York Times: Obama’s Weakness Is The Question Of “How Will The Next Four Years Really Be Different?”
7.Peter Baker, The New York Times: “Nor did he offer an extensive articulation of what his forward-looking agenda would be for a second term”
8.Joe Klein, TIME: “Obama’s Greatest Weakness Is That His Proposals For The Future Are Nonexistent.”
9.Adam Smith, Tampa Bay Times: “The President Did Little To Lay Out An Agenda For A Second Term.”
10.John Avlon, Newsweek: “He still hasn’t offered a clear second-term agenda, a persistent weakness of his campaign.”
11.Ben White, Politico: “Obama [Decided To Pursue A] Disqualification Effort Against Romney Rather Than Making A Strong Pitch For A Second Term Vision.”
12.The Wall Street Journal Editorial Headline: “A President Without A Plan”
13.Former Governor Eliot Spitzer (D-NY): “You Didn’t Leave Last Night With A Real Tangible Sense Of What The Second Term Agenda Is Going To Be.”
Mr. Obama ain’t winning Florida or Ohio, so your man’s path to victory is getting rather narrow now.
#95,
I love to see comments from pathetic and desperate trolls. Thanks for stopping by.
89 is desperation. The fact is, Romney has struggled some in the deep south. If anything, the reverse is true…Obama’s HUGE margins in MA NY CA WA IL, etc., is keeping the national popular vote quite close, but he is losing the battlegrounds.
Hey, Dickie, you still sore over ’60? Yeah, bet you didn’t see that coming LOSAH! It was OVAH for you as soon as you put your ugly mug on national TV up against mine.
lisab do you Kiss your momma with that mouth?
Comment by Dick Nixon — October 17, 2012 @ 4:03 pm
Your mother only gets hers from me.
“Romney is up 6 because he is up by 22 in the deep Red South”
Wrong. He is up 6 DESPITE losing big in populous states like CA, NY, and IL.
Sorry Dickie, go troll somewhere else.
I think obama lost votes last night. Whether people thought he had better lines who knows. Imagine if he had moderators that let Romney eat up all the time and was interupted repeatedly by the moderator and then had a big lie confirmed as the truth by the moderator. He would be crushed. People could say he won and still decide they prefer Romney and that is exactly what is going to happen. So ok if you way Obama won the debate, I really dont care because Romney is winning the argument.
#46 Funny. The liberal modeling agencies in NYC and around the world have used binders in selection of models for upcoming shoots. It is an standard industry term that to young folks has gone the way of the typewriter and white out.
So the latest idiocy by the Obama campaign is to spend the day disussing “binders full of women.” What a disgrace to our country this president is. They are probably doing this so that they can pull attention away from Libya.
Gallup Likely Voters
Oct 18, 2008
Obama 50
McCain 46
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111229/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Lead.aspx
Debate night in Florida. Nobody will be able to stay awake for this one. Bill nelson is a rube, a boring rube at that.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/17/3053018/nelson-and-mack-face-off-wednesday.html#morer
Hey Dickie, you can see from post #102 that even the liberals didn’t think Obama won.
You are 0/2.
Want to try something else?
Or retire gracefully….
Hey Dick…
Which was worse for you as a Lib?…
A) MSNBC focus group results, or…
B) According to CBS/CNN, Romney winning last night on the issues of:
1) the economy
2) taxes
3) deficit
4) health care
THAT Gallup was right, this one is wrong.
At Jason I agree!!!
lisab is sweet like mother’s milk.
Double Zing!
“Romney is up 6 because he is up by 22 in the deep Red South,”
riiiiiiiight …
massachusetts has a long history of getting along with southerners
why, they even gave us john brown’s bell
Its over you guys my man is got it in the bag! I only wish I could practice my deepthroat skills on him right now!
#119 lisab,
Massachusetts is basically just some strange and bewildering place were people from up north live.
lisa, I’m OK with Mass (Pinkos and all). If your Indies come through with similar margins like we are seeing elsewhere (Zero’s down 9 right now in MA), Mitt can keep the state to a 10-12 pt. loss if the final turnout mix is less D heavy than ’08 (43-17-40). What do you think the final mix will be?
Hannity playing all the clips of Obama condemning the anti-Muhammed video. He called it disgusting, and that it should be shunned, and any decent people should condemn it, etc., etc.
Where was Obama speaking out when our own government paid for the “art” showing a cross in a jar of urine?
Hey Dick
Will Eye Candy leave quietly in Jan or will the feds need to drag him and Moo out of the WH?
Um, yeah, lisa; what do you think of the MA electorate this year?
Even if you think Obama won last night, it was a Pyrrhic victory. Romney is leading bigtime on the issues of the economy, spending, and taxes.
It’s the economy stupid…and Obama is losing big!
lisab Please,remember who got ones Ass kicked in the Civil War…LOL
You people are a Joke,You must be Rush Limpballs Core fans..:)
lol
msnbc’s undecided voter panel
goes strongly for romney!!!!!
that is devestating! half of them actually are interns for obama and michelle.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/msnbcs-undecided-voter-panel-swayed-romney_654728.html
I see in the WAPO online poll with 49k votes Romney won 53-47.
ww.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/presidential-debate-libya-questioner-says-obama-didnt-answer/2012/10/17/7109898e-1867-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_blog.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/erik-wemple/post/presidential-debate-libya-questioner-says-obama-didnt-answer/2012/10/17/7109898e-1867-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_blog.html
The civil war happened before your grandparents were born. Talk about something a bit more recent. Get with the program fella.
127. Wow. A Civil War reference and insulting Rush.
A 2 fer. That’s like Kryptonite to any right winger.
#loseragain#
“What do you think the final mix will be?”
i hope romney keeps it within 15 in massachusetts
so that brown wins
at obama +20 the math gets a little difficult for brown
They paid for ads in Pakistan apologizing for the video. State Dept.
127. Nah, I don’t listen to Rush. In fact he doesn’t have that many fans here.
0/3
“remember who got ones Ass kicked in the Civil War”
as i recall
we burnt the south down …
surprisingly that was not to break the spirit of the southerners …
we were just grumpy because it is so freakin hot down there
meade kicked lees butt!
“Wow so this place is filled with KKK members???”
the kkk is all democrats
didn’t you see mississippi burning?
Dickie wasn’t at the top of the troll gene pool.
Hey Transparent Dem Troll, this just won’t cut it.
I know you are trying, but this one is even dumber than average.
Biden on Afghanistan: “We are leaving, we are leaving 2014. Period.” About that
————————–
State Department official: Negotiations to extend U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan starting soon
http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/16/state_department_official_negotiations_to_extend_us_troop_presence_in_afghanistan_s
jason – Transparent Dem Troll sent his workers home. These are freelance trolls.
I definitely agree on the 15+ margin as the preferable buffer, I was wondering if you thought Ds would comprise 43% of the voting public again, or if might expect that number to drop, or Rs to rise slightly, or maybe Is to take the biggest chunk since Ds are not nearly as excited about ’12 as they were about ’08.
“Wow so this place is filled with KKK members???”
I resemble that comment.
- Grand Wizard
139 – you must have missed my comment earlier today. I pointed out that in the wake of the Gallup poll, we just sent everyone home. I mentioned that ANY troll posting here today is on their own and NOT using DNC talking points.
“I know you are trying, but this one is even dumber than average”
he is not just dumb,
he obviously never studied.
i guess he never heard of the klansman for WV
Obama should be having a presser on this in the Ol’ Rose Garden in about 3…2…1…
Fox News
URGENT: Federal authorities arrest Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Shan Nafis, a Bangladeshi national, for allegedly plotting to blow up a Federal Reserve building in downtown New York City.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/17/sally-kohn-no-one-gives-a-sht-about-fast-furious/
oh, but they care about big bird, binders, and how big Romney’s (investment) package is?
“Federal authorities arrest Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Shan Nafis, a Bangladeshi national”
Clearly Romney offended him with that binders comment as well.
KKK?
Wow, that hurts.
Huh, look, troll, I live in PA and a defender of Lincoln and the Union until death.
0/4
Huh, me too.
The war on terror is over.
I read it on the internet, or Obama told me I forget which.
” I was wondering if you thought Ds would comprise 43% of the voting public again, or if might expect that number to drop, or Rs to rise slightly, or maybe Is to take the biggest chunk since Ds are not nearly as excited about ’12 as they were about ’08.”
i prefer stochastic predictions. i give a
1% chance for a 2008-type election, (assuming a sucessful october surprise)
a 40% chance for a 2004-type turnout D+3 or D+4
a 40% chance for a D+1 or D+2 turnout
a 10% chance for a D+0 or R+1 turnout
and a 9% chance for a romney blowout R+2 or better
WV was part of the union
BEREA, Ohio — Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice addressed the Browns before they practiced Wednesday in a day of change — and plenty of formal team addresses — at the Cleveland Browns practice facility.
There is a picture of Ryan talking with All-Pro tackle Joe Thomas, a University of Wisconsin graduate.
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/10/paul_ryan_condi_rice_watch_cle.html#incart_river
“WV was part of the union”
so was MO & KY
Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Shan Nafis wanted to blow up the Federal Reserve?
Cool. Now we know Bunu’s real name.
Hello Candy?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/more-evidence-of-deception/2012/10/17/2a4a26c6-1870-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_blog.html
good call with the Cleveland Browns thing…
1. “…got us into this mess in the first place.” 2. “I accept responsibility.” One of these phrases has appeared on the White House website 86 times since last July. The other has appeared once. [Jeopardy music]
“stochastic?”
See Dickie, we have erudite people here.
So much for your theory that we are a bunch of backwater rednecks.
no racist or slaveholders up North…it’s just a southern thing like sweet tea and NASCAR /sarc
156 – good call…did anyone notice whether or not Ron Paul was assisting with the detonation?
156. Good one, wish I would have thought of it.
we have sweet tea up north
its called maple syrup
Wasn’t this guy posting here last night?
Romney won the second debate
FoxNews.com
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney answers a question during the second presidential debate. (AP/Reuters Pool)
By scoring big on the economy, gas prices, and Libya, Romney continued his victorious string of debate wins. He looked more presidential than Obama did and showed himself to be an articulate, capable, attractive, compassionate leader with sound ideas.
Obama came over as boorish and Biden-esque. He did not learn from his Vice President’s mistakes. When a president gets into a bar room brawl, he loses his dignity and his aura, key assets for an incumbent. Romney was polite but firm. Obama seemed quarrelsome, frustrated, nasty, and cranky.
But the key reason for the Romney win was substantive:
1. Romney made very clear the case against Obama’s economic record and Obama’s rebuttal about 5 million jobs was pathetic.
2. Romney injected the China issue, big time, and tapped into a strong public sentiment on the issue.
3. Romney made the effective case that Obama is anti-oil, coal, and gas and that this has doubled gas prices.
4. Romney was very effective in differentiating himself from Bush-43 and in establishing that, unlike the GOP of the past, he was for small businesses not big businesses
5. Romney rebutted the attacks on him over Chinese investments.
6. Romney explained his tax plan well and to everyone’s satisfaction.
7. Obama erred in trying to make us believe that he always felt Libya was a terror attack. We all heard him blame the movie.
Obama scored points over the 47% statement by Romney, immigration, and by his response to the accusation that he went to Vegas after the murder of the Ambassador.
But this debate goes to Romney. It seals his momentum and will lead to a big win.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/17/romney-won-second-debate/?cmpid=NL_BestofOpinion#ixzz29ag0ZKN6
I wonder if WEC is implicated too…
the sad part is that the troll is looking up the kkk on wikipedia and finding out it was all democrats
and
going on the site and trying to rewrite history
“But the key reason for the Romney win was substantive:”
i think it was because people prayed
god loves a republican candidate
WEC only gets his IED’s for killing Americans from Acme Co.
Don’t you watch the cartoons?!?!
the moderater asked how romney was different from bush
why didn’t she ask how obama was different from carter?
You can sense the desperation from the Obama camp today by how they have latched on to the “Binders Full of Women” comment.
They have now completely become a campaign deviod of issues and just looking for just about anything to latch on to that might smear Romney.
I think Toby Harnden had one of the best takes on the debate last night. Obama may have won a tactical skirmish or two, but he failed to strategically change the momentum of the race.
He also made a good point about the snap polls. Some may have said Obama won the night, but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote for him. And to amplify the point, he noted how both the CNN poll and the CBS poll were devastating for Obama on the economy, the most important issue.
Even if we disregard the Luntz focus group, the MSNBC Ohio groups was far more inclined to like Romney thanks to the economy.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2218905/Presidential-debate-2012-A-new-improved-Obama-shows-fails-halt-Mitt-Romneys-momentum.html
Derek Jeter said that he is for Obama.
I noticed that Jeter broke his ankle and the Yankees are about to be swept.
This all coincides with Obama’s plunge in the polls and increasingly bleak prospects for re-election.
It’s all so clear to me.
No, it should be “How is Obama different from Obama?”
The last 4 years haven’t worked and Obama is the 2nd term of Obama.
I would consider remaking some of Obama’s McCain = 3rd term of Bush and apply them to him.
i think the desperation showed on
msnbc’s panel of undecided voters.
clearly their choosing romney over obama was unexpected and unwanted.
many people want an alternative to obama and romney is being seen as competent
Honey Boo Boo and Jeeter??? we are totally screwed!
174 – It reminds me of May 2008, during the Kentucky Derby, where a rare appearance of a Philly in the race got Hillary’s attention, so she began rooting for the horse, aligning the horses’ chances with her own.
During the race, this horse broke down and they had to kill it right on the track. Ouch.
I read that in my office today Robbie. It was a so-so analysis. The Telegraph has a better take on the debate in my opinion.
Jeter personally identifies with Obama, in demographic terms.
#178 DW,
I don’t think that female horses should be allowed to race with male horses. The female horses should have a race of their own, kind of like the LPGA and WNBA.
lisab, what do you think about that?
#180 marc,
I’m sure that’s what it is. Derek Jeter is a great guy and a good role model. It is unfortunate that we’re still plagued by the issue of race and identity politics.
If you troll some of the leftist sites. You get the sense that it is settling in slowly that things for Obama aren’t going well. They are in the beginning stages
Bitter…
“…Carlos Beltran left the game after one inning with a left knee strain.”
DUN DUNN DUNNNNNNNNNN!
Republican leaders say Obama gave a “bleak debate performance”….
blEak —> blaCk
Sooooo racist!
MISSOURI
Romney 53
Obama 42
Akin 46
McCaskill 48
INDIANA
Romney 52
Obama 39
Mourdock 50
Donnelly 41
500 Certain to vote, per state
10/16/12
Paladin/CFP
marc,
I am getting the sense that it’s starting to settle in that Romney, on balance, had a very good night. The debate about the debate seems to be going in his favor.
#185 is “binder gaffe mentality”
#46…So Hope…it was not a gaffe…it is a term for a cover for holding loose sheets of paper like resumes and documents of different sorts. It is usually flat and easy to put in a drawer of a shelf.
Jeter grew up in a mostly white and conservative Kalamazoo, Michigan with a black father and white mother so you can deem whatever you want from that.
# 189 *or a shelf
well if the polls don’t change in favor of obama by the next debate
gallup should expect another visit by eric holder
and obama may actually knife romney during the debate.
frankly i am surprised romney has held up so well under such heated attacks.
#186 DW,
I just checked our software and you flipped the Akin v McCaskill number when you typed your post.
a town hall debate is probably romney’s worst format and obama’s best as well
#183= Marc, aside from DailyKos, what sites would you recommend to get a nice flavor of gradually dawning fear from the lefties?
“it is a term for a cover for holding loose sheets of paper like resumes and documents of different sorts”
could you store prayers in a binder?
Derek Jeter is a serious Christian…he has his priorities right.
I know what a binder is SSQ. I am just trying to bend my mind into a pretzel in order to see how it was a gaffe.
Marv,
thanks, Akin hasn’t been showing up in the debates as much as I thought he would. How bad McCaskill must be in that she cannot put him away?
#197…Yes, Ms. Lisab….and I do store my prayers and song sheets in binders! (:-)
#198…Ok…just wanted to be helpful.
marc,
African-Americans will stick with Obama this election, but in fewer numbers as a total vote share and Romney will pick off a few more percent that did McCain. They are remaining mostly silent during this election election and I have a sense that they realize that Obama will lose and they just want this to be over.
179
The reason I liked Harnden’s analysis is because it squares with my view last night’s debate was a run of the mill presidential debate. Almost always, they matter little and I think last night was the case.
Many of the left want to see last night as Denver in reverse, but Denver was a once in a generation debate occurance. Other than Reagan in 1980, no debate has had that kind of impact. It was unique.
In 1988, Dukakis was seen as the winner of all of the debates and lost 53-46. In 2000, Gore was seen as the winner of the debates and lost. In 2004, Kerry was seen as the winner of the debates and lost. Last nigth fit well with those effort, interesting, but not earth shattering.
194 – and in spite of that, Romney was still better at talking with the crowd and appearing likeable to them. Obama was angrier and never smiled like Romney did.
Obama’s campaign strategy was based on making Romney an unacceptable alternative that’s why they spent so much and smear so early to do that. It’s worked up until the first debate.
Now all that has changed. Romney is actually the more presidential of the two and people are realizing that. So we are see now seeing the real type of campaign that Obama is running.
Steinbrenner’s ghost came back and tripped Jeter on the field to get even for the Obama endorsement. Old George was a staunch R, you know.
“aside from DailyKos, what sites would you recommend to get a nice flavor of gradually dawning fear from the lefties?”
The Brooklyn Bridge
The Golden Gate Bridge
The bar in and surrounding Chicago
…on election night
I just got here.
Anybody post this yet?
Election Projection now has it:
O 281 (incl. NV, IA, OH, NH)
R 257 (moved VA from to Romney)
Keep Obama in President, ya know? He gave us a phone, he gonna do more!
You on food stamps, you on sosh security, you low income, you disability!!!
but but … jeter is for obama …
so does that mean serious christians are for obama?
what about flippant christans?
197. That’s a joke right?
…various suicide hotlines
Any AA who is going to drop Obama and vote Romney will NEVER tell anyone. They would not want to suffer the shame of it among their friends. They will say “I am for Obama” to friends who ask, but go in and vote for Romney, and then refuse to be exit polled if asked. Nobody will ever know.
Frankly when the word “binder” was questioned I did
wonder about the educational level of the people making fun of Mitt.
195. Talking Points Memo. Huffington Post. I can only stomach the mainstream liberal sites.
Yesterday Election Projection oved VA from slight O to slight R.
Today he moved CO from slight O to slight R.
RCP still has VA in the O column.
“Nobody gives a &*$@ about Fast and Furious” Don’t cha know?
http://bindersfullofwomen.com/
A binder is also called a notebook. It is used to keep invidual sheets of paper in the same place.
213. I live in Manhattan, but you don’t see the activity from the black churches this time around. But I’m not tuned into that culture so I’m not sure.
A-Holes, saw this over at RRH (the inverse of HHR?);
http://www.politicspa.com/smiths-mom-endorses-medicare-plan-in-new-ad-watch-video/42742/
Smith is beating the cr@p out of Senator Zero with stuff like this. Is Casey’s only hope to go all out on abortion (for the RINO moms in the burbs)? If he does, will he alienate or actively p*ss off the pro-flie Dems has has hoodwinked all these years?
This septic tank is full of angry White Boys!
Obama 4 more years wingnuts!
http://bindersfullofwomen.com/
The liberals are hysterical.
If the takeaway for last night’s debate for Team Obama is “Mitt Romney & Binders”, they are in ENORMOUS trouble.
They have tried horses, dogs, house elevators, tax returns, Mormonism and now “binders” and NONE of it has worked to disqualify Mitt Romney, and none of it will.
Indies want to hear about Obama’s PLANS for his next term; something he hasn’t mentioned in any of the debates thus far. You cannot lose on the top issue of the day 65-34 and make up that ground by talking about Mitt Romney’s binders.
Put a fork in ‘im. Obama’s finished.
DW, I need your input on something…
Matter of fact this must be where all the Freepers went.
the trouble with the
romney hates the poor
romney hates women
romney hates minorities
arguments, is that romney has not governed that way at all. it just does not ring true, they way such statements might stick to a santorum or perry
Rebel flag-waving moron busted for brandishing gun at primary school kids: Guys with Confederate battle flag decals and bumper stickers and belt-buckles can get pretty verbally aggressive defending what they call “Southern heritage.” But usually they draw the line at pulling guns on grade schoolers. However, Joshua P. Dalton in Virginia Beach couldn’t stand the derisive remarks a couple of young boys were making about the Rebel flag in his pick-up truck. So he pointed his gun at them. He was arrested on misdemeanor charges.
http://hamptonroads.com/2012/10/va-beach-students-say-man-aimed-gun-them
True that Mitt has the redneck racist vote in his pocket.
Obama 4 more years wingnuts!
http://bindersfullofwomen.com/
Comment by ryhuti — October 17, 2012 @ 5:05 pm
Oh noes! This is going to make the Big Bird thing look like NOTHING.
Obama has the inner-city racist vote in his pocket.
You around DW?
It will be so nice to have George Allen as my Senator once again. Now, we need for for Gov. McDonnell to run for Mark Warner’s open seat in 2014.
President HatesAmerica McSandtrap’s female debate prep coach complained of hostile work environment: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/obamas-female-debate-coach-complained-about-hostile-workplace-white-house_654745.html
Oh no!
Bitter…
“…Carlos Beltran left the game after one inning with a left knee strain.”
Mr. Vito – It’s my fault. A few days ago I really thought, “Beltran really stayed healthy and helped the Cardinals this year.” I’m not making it up. I was going to post it for mnw(etback)’s benefit and say I was wrong. Then, he essentially said GFY forever to me. Go Giants! Suck it, Beltran. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
lisab Do all of you Low-Information Voters Even GET the Etch-a-Sketch Reference?
fking confederate flags!!!
i thought we destroyed all those democrat flags during the civil war!
#199, I am convinced that a well-ran write-off campaign in MO would have defeated Claire in MO. They did it in Alaska.
Harvard Poll Says Young Voters Back Obama Less Than 4 Years Ago
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/BNALL-BNSTAFF-BNTEAMS-BOSCURZ2/2012/10/17/id/460406
as you are obviously a low information voter, i will explain.
an etch a sketch is what obama and democrats think the constitution was written on
236. What did you think of President HatesAmerica’s McSandtrap’s calling his own grandmother:
“An average white woman”
Racist and misogynist? NO?
lisab Do all of you Low-Information Voters Even GET the Etch-a-Sketch Reference?
Comment by ryhuti — October 17, 2012 @ 5:11 pm
No, she forgot about it just like every single one of your other lame attacks. See:
Tax returns
Seamus
Haircut-gate
Bain
Ann Romney’s horse
Big Bird
47%
Next up:
Binders
That is what the trolls are so worked up about today.
the trolls are out in force, Transparent Dem troll has lost control
Lets play put the polls in perspective
WI +1 Obama 13% off of 2008 numbers
NH +1 Obama 9% off of 2008 numbers
NV +1 Obama 11% off of 2008 numbers
NH Tie 10% off of 2008 numbers
CO +1 Romney 11% off of 2008 numbers
Gallup at +6% Romney is about 12% improvement of 2008 numbers for the GOP.
So theory #1 is that state polls are lagging national numbers as state polls do not reflect the national partisan shift that Gallup is picking up.
Theory #2 is that the national lead is somewhere between Gallup +6 and RAS numbers. Say like KOS/PPP’s 4%.
So which is?
The etch-a-sketch is made in Ohio… Obama should continue to denigrate them.
I have it on fairly good authority that some big super pac money will hit MO for Akin within the next week or so and continue to the election.
Almost forgot my favorite:
Romney murdered some dude’s wife
I am here.
#21…so true…it is a loyality thing however ridiculous that seems to us. If the AA’s only knew how much that false expectation of loyalty holds them back. Conservative blacks have become very prosperous in the business world. They set a good example.
Jan IMO there is no doubt that young people have soured on Obama. They were vote in fewer numbers and will vote in lower numbers for him.
” If the AA’s only knew how much that false expectation of loyalty holds them back. ”
maybe they should pray
DW, I got a list from VA here about early voting stats… one is
“StatsABComparison2008v2012.csv”
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/2012_10_17/
Is this a comparison of the early voting TO THIS POINT? The numbers seem too low otherwise.
I crossreferenced the counties/cities Obama won in 2008, and got 9070 more votes compared to 2008… in the McCain counties I got 13930
#245 rdelbov,
Gallup apparently uses about D+1 and RAS D+3. If RAS cleaned up his Indie sample and used D+1, he would have the same result as Gallup. I expect that he will do that just before his final poll.
Scott R certainly does want to be beaten by Gallup this time around. I expect that most all serious pollsters will have Romney in the lead and be within a point or two of each other.
#247…That’s good…he is a Senator and we do want all the votes in the Senate that we can get.
Time to put hatred and disgust away. He apologized…and the woman problem has passed. Romney will do just fine with women. Women like to
shop, you know!
153 – I don’t have time now to dig into those numbers. Maybe later tonight.
253, not 153
Okay, DW… have a good one.
the one thing i am hoping for is that
romney’s lead will snowball among the general populace
causing obama to panic.
——————————-
i would pay money if i could be the one to tell the obamas they have to move out of the white house …
well … i would pay money to be the one to tell the wookie. i do not really dislike obama on a personal level that much
New CO poll:
Grove Insight (D)
10/15/12
Obama 47
Romney 44
Much more undecided than all other recent polls, and given its a D pollster, probably good news here after dissecting the internals if they provide them.
#259 lisab,
Hope is not a strategy, you should pray. It achieves better results. I should know, that’s basically how I made it through Air Force pilot training.
I usually move internal polls about 5 points or so unless internals are provided. So yes +3 for Obama in a D internal poll is bad.
#260 DW,
Obama must be in pretty bad shape if a Democrat polling company can’t get him above 47%. That’s basically where he is in every place that matters.
#176 That is a cojent point Lisab, and I’ve always been a bit suspicious of Luntz’s focus groups. One of the classic rules of the courtroom is “never ask a question you don’t already know the answser to”
In this case MSBNC clearly thought they “knew” their focus group would favor Obama (and I have some dark suspicions as to why). In this case what they heard clearly came as a total shock.
I think I may know why. As for myself, I never found either Clinton or Obama to be an effective or convincing speaker. It’s not just my biases’ either. I was a hard core Dem when I first heard Clinton and I knew within seconds of hearing him speak that he was walking sleaze and that was back in 1990. Why? Because I *knew* he was lying and I don’t cotton to that. Same goes for Obama.
What does this have to do with the focus group? Just this: I think for millions and millions of people including the focus group, they have suddenly woken up as it were and discovered that yes, Obama was lying to them…and indeed had been lying to them for the last four years.
When that happens, you tend not to believe a solitary thing that person says any more.
*THAT* is what I think is what happened to the Luntz focus group,and if that’s reason, Obama should be deeply frightened.
-Polaris
rdelbov
Check #254, it was for you.
#252…sometimes fear of rebuke and fear of being ostracized will trump desire for a better opportunity in the world of work.
The IN and MO polls are telling.
These things move in tandem.
Obama won IN by a whisker and lost MO by a whisker.
Now he is behind by double digits in both states.
To think this is not happening all over to greater or lesser extent is ludicrous.
another D internal house poll:
Myers Research (D)
TN_04
DesJarlais (R-Inc) 49
Stewart (D) 44
This is supposed to be a Safe R seat, but I believe this is the one where the R has a scandal brewing.
Is this the best the troll can do?
A redneck somewhere pointed a gun at someone?
My God, we have come a long way from hope and change and Greek columns and swooning girls…..
LOL
“you should pray. It achieves better results. I should know, that’s basically how I made it through Air Force pilot training.”
i thought you made it through with your eyes closed!
zing!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PdUdaXDHm4
Have I fallen off my Scooter again, or does it seem like every time Romney numbers go up in Gallup they go down in Ras?
test
260. Right, if you figure most undecided will break for Romney even the Dem poll is not good for Obama.
Report: Obama campaign backing away from Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado?
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/17/report-obama-campaign-backing-away-from-florida-virginia-north-carolina-and-colorado/
There’s reports O’s team is taking down the negative ads and replacing them w/ positive ones. Apparently the “Romney is evil” meme ain’t working w/ their focus groups anymore.
197.Derek Jeter is a serious Christian…he has his priorities right.
Comment by SusyQue
A serious christian that supports a prez that favors abortion and g*y marriage?~~ I don’t think so.
the msnbc focus group had a black interviewer too …
who wants to tell a black interviewer that they won’t be voting for the black guy …
Hey troll, call us anything but “low information”???
That hurts.
We divulge all the latest information here often before its even public.
274. Eye Candy is setting up firewalls in OH and wait for it … Wisconsin.
#275 Arthur,
Obama must be in serious trouble, because negative ads normally work. It’s way too late for him to go positive. Romney finished him off last night…..some of the pundits are just now coming to realize that.
OK this election is definitely over. We win by 6-8 points. We will get PA, NM, and OR easily. So lets start talking about the next four years. Who are your choices for the following:
Sec of state
Sec of defense
Sec of homeland security
Speaker of house
#198 And I am convinced that if the Republican Party had only rallied behind Libertarian Jonathan Dine, we could have beaten McCaskill.
The Libertarian Party serves as a screw-up option for the GOP. If we Republicans screw up, we’ve got the LP to fall back on.
Dine is a good candidate. He would have caucused with the GOP. He’d be a Rand Paul type.
Not too late. Dump Akin. Back Dine!
#198 And I am convinced that if the Republican Party had only rallied behind Libertarian Jonathan Dine, we could have beaten McCaskill.
The Libertarian Party serves as a screw-up option for the GOP. If we Republicans screw up, we’ve got the LP to fall back on.
Dine is a good candidate. He would have caucused with the GOP. He’d be a Rand Paul type.
Not too late. Dump Akin. Back Dine!
“A redneck somewhere pointed a gun at someone?”
how do they know the redneck is a republican …
lots of democrats are rednecks
Ok, FL now is gone:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330793/obamas-new-firewall-ohio-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada
#274 That link also strongly suggests that I am right about Ohio (i.e. Romney is leading it by a narrow margin) and that we aren’t seeing it because NOBODY IS POLLING OHIO!
If Ohio is really as importnat and central as is being claimed, why aren’t we being hit with a dozen different polls per day from Ohio? The last group of Ohio polls was OCTOBER THE TENTH (that’s a week ago).
Maybe the pollsters don’t want to post what they are sure they’ll find? Maybe?
-Polaris
#281, Michael. Speaker of house?
Um.. last I checked POTUS doesn’t choose the Speaker LOL.
Based on that article, sounds like CO is too. The FL, VA and NC were confirmed by the Suffolk pollster.
Whoops, sorry Marv, looks like you got it before me.
also, i expect romney to choose mostly based on qualifications,
i doubt he will choose based purely on politics
santorum, huckabee and perry are likely out of luck
Further to 279:
Per Mark Belling the Obama campaign just put a huge buy in with Clear Channel radio for WI.
Looks like WI has become part of the make or break firewall.
if romney wins
the fun part will be watching msnbc
they will seriously not have any idea why obama lost — if he does that is
#290 Perry seems to be in his wheelhouse as Gov of Texas anyway. It’s a good gig.
-Polaris
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/what-s-next-in-the-obama-romney-duel-20121017
From Major Garrett’s article.
#285 Tina,
There is a design flaw in Obama’s firewall construction specs…..turns out some idiot ordered the dang thing to be made out of magnesium.
chris mattews will be
GOBSMACKED!
It all comes back to Ohio. The lack of polls are strange. I guess even the partisan pollsters don’t want to do anything. Showing their guy up might motivate the other side and showing their guy down might demoralize their own side.
Interesting
#295 Ooops.
-Polaris
I had a theory:
First debate obviously hurt. However, the VP debate appears to also cause a lot of pain to Camp Obumbler with Gaffe going looney.
#297 I find the dearth of polls in Ohio to be beyond strange. I think it goes into the suspicious territory myself.
If Ohio really is as crucial as we know it is (and apparently Team Obama and the MSM agree it is), then WHY aren’t we being flooded with polls of Ohio?
-Polaris
“.turns out some idiot ordered the dang thing to be made out of magnesium.”
actually magnesium turned out to be against EPA regulations
so they turned to francium
I must break my silence right here and NOW MD and Bitter you both know I was protesting I am back to complain about the @ss who is using my handle
Check 281
300 – fear of the consequences of the polls. Both have internals that I guarantee show the race within 3 either way.
I think Ryan did help with women (in general), undecided voters, indies and Catholics. There’s overlap among these groups.
In a tight race several % in key states make a big difference.
2nd debate – the Obumbler loses due to Libya and the intervention of the Cow Beotch.
Hi Michael,
I am thrilled to see you post. I felt awful and responsible for your departure. Handle stealing is total BS
Peter Hamby tweeted earlier this afternoon the buzz in Ohio today was Romney may well have been ahead in the state entering last night’s debate.
That wouldn’t surprise me given the national polling and the public polls we’ve seen in PA and WI.
lisab,
The bottom side of a T-38 is made with a magnesium composite.
In the event that the landing gear will not extend, the emergency procedure is to eject from the aircraft.
#303 I think you are onto something. If the Ohio polls DO show a narrow Romney lead or even a tight MOE race (it would be within three either way I agree), I think that deep panic starts setting in on Camp Obama.
Right now the Obama refrain is, “Yes Romney has surged a bit, and yes he might have a national lead, but as long as we have Ohio, then we have the EC victory and so we’re fine.”
That would be true except the whole basis of that statement is now based on polling that’s over a week old!
-Polaris
@306 you were not responsible MD I left on my own accord because I hate Hunter and I think he is an @ss period. People like that in my opinion don’t need to run the sanctuary of a truce so people can’t critique their stupid remarks.
Now that I have gotten that out if my system. The debate went fairly well yesterday in my opinion
Did someone order a Playboy?
BTW the state at Obama’s backside is back!
Come on down Wisconsin!
So it looks like Ohio is the last line of defense– and not a very strong one at that– if Romney takes Wisconsin and Iowa (or any of the other states O’s “circling around” after a Colorado win) he wins.
#307 I agree with him. I have (currently) Ohio as Romney +2 or +3. Without recent polling, I am basing this off the national number of Romney+1
-Polaris
Yeah, no OH polls is very remarkable. With FL NC VA all looking good, it stands to reason that IF OH goes Romney, that we would get at least one out of NH CO WI NV or IA. So its all OHIO.
Why did they leave CO out of the firewall? If CO is out of the firewall, then they are saying just Ohio is the firewall.
IA, NV, and NH are pointless if you lose OH and CO.
Just a note on Wisconsin.
I am convinced that Ryan/Romney get 60% in WI1. if there was any congressman who crossed party lines to win Ds and alot of indies as well its Ryan. I think Ryan gains a few other points in the other two SE seats.
I think the vote will also be huge in WI1 relative the 2008 vote. Perhaps WI1 will increase its relative % for the state by .5%. I am just guessing but say 12.5% to 13%.
So these are complex numbers to sort out in a statewide poll. In a 700 person sample you may only get 70 voters from WI1. You might not pick up the Ryan effect.
Belling reports that the Obama campaign has made a “monster” ad buy on the Wisconsin Clear Channel stations.
but as I said yesterday, Romney really would benefit from getting NH. Assuming he gets OH, then needing one more state, NH closes at 7pm. If it fails to go Romney, then we have to wait until 9 pm to see if WI or CO goes Romney, and if they fail, then until 10 pm to see if IA or NV will work.
Get OH and NH, and its a remarkably short evening.
@316 have you seen all the swing state polls? Colorado is like NC, FL, and VA, almost every single one in the past 2 weeks gives a Romney advantage
318
Yep Check 291 above
so Belling and Rush are blasting Obama, then when they go to a commercial, its pro-Obama ads…yeah…that’s gonna work.
@319 was wondering which states are you polling next ?
I think that Obama’s inner circle has privately given up on CO as easily winnable. I also think that Obama is running short of money (at least compared with 2008) and long on leaks they have to plug….and they are going to shore up the states that are leaking the least.
The fact that Obama’s spokesperson left out Colorado as a state “they are doing well” in, is remarkable. It suggests that they have put it in the same category as FLA, and VA (and of course NC), i.e. states they expect to lose.
As for the VA numbers, I wouldn’t believe the RCP numbers. The info I am seeing strongly suggests that VA is a losing proposition for Obama right now as well.
-Polaris
DW – they do NOT control the clearance of ads in local markets. Those decisions are made by local PD’s.
Paladin/CFP schedule:
Tomorrow: CT and PA
Friday: MI
Polaris…
Obama will not win CO…
Ground support/enthusiasm is just not here…
As I’ve said before, Boulder is the bastion of Liberalism and there could not be a more noticeable difference between 2008 and 2012…
Romney ads have moved ahead in terms of #’s vs. Obama and I’m now hearing more radio ads as well…
325 – Yes, that’s right. I was just making the point that these ads will fall on deaf ears.
Oh, I see. Sorry.
There’s reports O’s team is taking down the negative ads and replacing them w/ positive ones. Apparently the “Romney is evil” meme ain’t working w/ their focus groups anymore.
Comment by AuthorLMendez, Head Of The Projection Desk (O 290, R 248) — October 17, 2012 @ 5:31 pm
ROBBIE SAVED OBAMA’S CAMPAIGN TOO!
#327 I agree. What I was getting at is I think that Obama’s top campaign mangers also agree…or at least it would cost too much to keep the state (Co).
-Polaris
@186 so the real Senate number is:
Akin – 48
McCaskill – 46
Sitting senator at 46% with less than three weeks to go is not good.
CO would be great, but again I want NH to be the 1 in the 3-2-1 plan. Get it over with, so that we just need to watch the returns on OH to see if we win.
MD, is your team going to complete the PA poll tonight, or do you want my team to do the polling?
I know we’ve been seeing more Romney ads than Obama ads in Colorado. Romney plus Crossroads GPS + Americans for Prosperity.
Hunter attested to the same in the Denver market.
Republicans can win in Colorado as long as they aren’t viewed as extreme (Hello Mr. Maes, Hello Mr. Buck”). We had open races for Secretary of State and Treasurer, and the Republicans won rather handily.
Good chance Romney wins here.
Hunter – thanks for the update from the Denver market. Seeing the same thing you are in the Springs.
Sean…
We do have a wonderful history (recently) of pulling defeat from the jaws of victory, right?…
“Did someone order a Playboy?”
isn’t playboy that magazine filled with typical white women?
DW: The networks will not call NH or OH until December.
#330 I heard that too. In fact Rove was talking about that (taking down all negative ads by Obama) and called it ‘remarkable’. Rove also said in the history of the Gallup poll, that NO ONE that has lead by over fifty percent in the LV in Mid October has EVER lost the general election.
Here’s the problem. If Obama gives up going negative on Obama, he has no campaign. The electorate KNOWS that Obama has been a poor president, and his JA number reflects that. The only way that Obama wins this with the economy being the way it is, is if he somehow DQs Romney.
The problem is that by giving up on going negative, Obama has effectively given up on his entire campaign strategy from the start.
-Polaris
“The networks will not call NH or OH until December.”
cbs never called ohio in 2004
kerry conceded.
Polaris,
Your analysis is right on. Obama between a rock and a hard place on strategy.
The fact that he’s switched to the positive tells you the debates did indeed wipe out 150 million in negative advertising. One hundred fifty million down the drain.
DW for one of your polls please I just want to see, add Green Party Jill Stein to the choices with Obama and Romney. I want to see the impact of her in the race
Reserve the right to revise upwards, but right now I have Romney at 301 EV’s on election night. I give him OH, FL, NC, VA, NH, IA, NV, CO, WI.
Romney is flushed with cash lol. He has flexibility.
If Obama is putting a big ad blitz into Wisconsin this late in the game then he’s in serious trouble.
@344 Don’t be greedy. Romney will not flip IA.
One hundred fifty million down the drain.
Comment by Phil — October 17, 2012 @ 6:07 pm
That buys a whole lot of binders filled with women.
Slick Willy is in Wisconsin on Friday as well as Mrs. O.
Sorry for not posting in long time, but I was (and am) really busy. The only thing I could keep up was to update my data base of polls. In the next post I will show the current electoral votes calculated by the aggregate method of AWESOME. Recently I changed the decay constant for the importance of the polls as we approach elections. The new decay constant is an half life of 10 days; that means that every 10 days the weight of a poll goes down exponentially by a factor 2. The electoral votes calculated by the AWESOME methodology is currently Obama 277 and Romney 261. Romney has gained (with respect to 2008) Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado. At this stage there are three possible pathways to reach 270: gain Ohio, or gain Wisconsin, or gain both Nevada and Iowa. Looking at the number I would think that Wisconsin has the better chance in view also of the presence of Ryan in the ticket.
#347 Sy,
Bush won IA in 2004, Romney is poised to win IA this year.
Here in the following the electoral votes calculated by AWESOME.
IA ballots are trending Repubs. We’ve been eating into that early DEM lead daily. If it’s close to 60,000 we win.
Are we to take this Gallup 51-45 lead seriously?
There was a time when if a candidate lead in the Gallup survey by 6 points with 20 days to go, the election is pretty much over. What’s different this time? Yeah, I know, it’s Obama and he’s capable of anything. So what?
Gallup and Crowley gate destroyed whatever sh!tty advantage had going out of the debate.
Karl Rove: No Candidate Has Ever Lost After Being Up 51% In Mid-October On Gallup
Marv,
I’d say the definitive sign would be if Ras feels comfortable enough to move his Party ID to D+2 and certainly to D+1. He’s resisted so far BUT there has been no need for him to take that step – YET.
In the next post I will show the current AWESOME calculation for the national polls. Keep in mind that I update the tracking polls only on Monday. That is the day when RAS shows his 7 days average. By the way, his last party ID is D+1. People here say that he applies this as a weight to his polls. I lean for the hypothesis that this is simply what he finds in his polls, as his party ID in the past as sometime changed by the week. Concerning the results at the national level, it is really too close to call: Obama ahead by 0.1% using the averaged results and Obama ahead by 0.3% using the aggregate ones.
Here in the following the AWESOME results for the national polls.
I have so much shiiit in my pants
I need a new diaper
65.6 million watched the second debate…
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/17/2nd-debate-also-a-ratings-hit-drawing-65-6-million-at-home-viewers/
Tomorrow is Thursday. I hate that day because that’s when those lousy Quinn and Marist polls come out.
obama is like a washed up pitcher. His fastball is gone, he has no curve, a slider that does not tumble, he has had tommy john surgery, and needs glasses because he cant read the catchers signals. He’s finished. Sayonara. He has nothing left. The magic is gone. Its over. Go away and quit embarrasing yourself. The man CANNOT come back. Dont be delusional
Romney 380+
Am I going to lose my Obamaphone?
Romney 535+
azguy, I love your enthusiasm but 380 is asking a little to much out of MITT.
How did Obama know that Candy Crowley had the Rose Garden transcript (Check the transcript Candy)?
I just have one question. Will Kristi Noem be in the Binder full of women? ohh la la
Go ahead brandi and mock me. Just watch and learn.
Romney 380+
368. Very good question that you’d think someone would be asking.
Holy Smokes….the Kimball Consulting VA poll that DW found actually made it into an MSM newspaper.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/10/16/4916387/new-mirror-image-gallup-poll-shows.html
God bless Ruth Buzzi.
http://twitchy.com/2012/10/17/ruth-buzzi-entertainers-should-entertain-leave-politics-to-the-experts/
Nah, I’m done mocking. I don’t have time for racists anyway.
VANCOUVER—Can’t find a job? Put away the skinny jeans and the thick-rimmed glasses, the B.C. government is suggesting.
The province has unveiled a series of billboards on campuses and transit lines hoping to encourage young people get a job. But the ads appear to have sparked only disdain from the audience it’s aiming to reach with slogans such as “Hipster is not a full-time job” and “Oh sure, you’ll definitely win the lottery,” prompting some on Twitter to note, sarcastically, that it’s not easy wearing old-school sneakers or growing a scruffy beard.
“These ads are offensive and in poor taste because they imply youths are just sitting around and not wanting to gain employment,” said Katie Marocchi, chairperson of the Canadian Federation of Students in B.C. “It shows how this government is disconnected from reality when they insist there’s no money to invest in post-secondary and then they spend money telling us it’s all our fault.”
Marocchi said she especially disliked the ad that says “Because marrying rich may not pan out.”
It is not based on enthusiasm. It is reality. There is more to ‘predicting’ than just crunching numbers 24hrs a day. I refuse to say how I come to the 380,,because if i do Im certain the ‘circle jerk’ gang of imbeciles will just attempt to discredit the info because they would fail to recognize or understand what im saying. If they dont say it…they view it as fiction. Gotta love their arrogance.
Romney 380+
Should Candy Crowley apologize for defending President Obama on Libya with misinformation?
yes: 97%
no:3%
wrko boston raidio online poll
We can easily get to 380EVs. If we win by 6-8 which is likely, we will win PA, NM, MI, OR, WA, MN and will threaten in NJ, ME.
380 easy
Actual tweet and this woman is not being sarcastic:
Claire McCabe ?@claire_mccabe
Sh**, I really hope the binders thing costs Mitt the election. #stillworried
Just when the whole “Paul Ryan may have washed a dish that was not actually dirty” fiasco was calming down.
Is this the same Michael who the other day was telling us that Romney couldn’t get to 300 EV’S? I’m not being disrespectful, I’m just asking.
Or is someone stealing his handle again?
Somebody pinch me, and it can’t be Robbie:
PublicPolicyPolling PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Our Washington poll also found a surprisingly close race for President- Obama up 50/45. Pre-debate though: http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012 …
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/258699776873332736
382. Ya beat me to it. LOL!
(Obama won Wash St by 17 in 2008)
Holy cow, if Washington is really that close, then there is no firewall. It’s PPP though.
Only time will tell, but today’s 0.4% lead for Romney in the RCP average should be the last full day that we have numbers that aren’t at least partly affected by the 2nd debate. A couple of days ago it was a dead even tie. That seems pretty close to what it will be Monday when the final debate happens.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/more-evidence-of-deception/2012/10/17/2a4a26c6-1870-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_blog.html
More lies from the Obumbler on Benghazi gate.
The Washington state PPP Drat result appears lower than normal. Me thinks, he wants to show a bigger lead later post debate and then draw a conclusion from it (false).
What a glorious day. Where are our trolls? I really wish they would show up today.
Come on trolls!!
I also think that the states are starting to line up. 380EVs, hmm that would be nice but I’m not sure. But I can see 330+.
With Gallup now at R+6, we are certain that Romney wins by at least 5.
Yes trolls, its beginning to look a lot like 1980.
#386 Except I don’t think this second debate helps Obama. He may have won it ‘on points’, but the internals of all that flash polling and the spin has been rather bad for Obama really. By stepping in on his behalf (wrongly let me add), Ms Crowley probably did Obama no favors in the long run.
-Polaris
Tina- why would anyone bother showing a debate comeback in a state neither side is contesting?
Any poll showing Romney within 2 points is a win for Romney on election day. Republicans always poll 3 to 4 points below actual results.
You have to ask the head of PPP-Drat that question. WA is not a 5 point race pre debate.
When a race is this far gone, even the Pollsters can’t help ooo.
This is over!
Praise be to Jesus
Just got polled in PA asked about campaign for president and senate, I got to do the poll for gma since she is the registered voter. So look for a PA poll coming out soon, had influence in it!
Let’s not count our chickens, Suzy. Too early for that.
@378 keep away from my handle idiot!
Everyone that Michael is a fake, I would never say that WA is in play only Oregon
I agree with Tina. Ppp is all about narratives. This just happened to be the state they they had planned to poll and skewed things to support that narrative.
Ras has Wash 55-42, so somebody is way off.
CD
PPP has Adam Hasner trailing Lois Frankel in FL-22 by only 3% (47-44). Interesting. FL-22 is an open seat that is heavily Dem (Obama won the district under the current lines 57-43). Hasner, who is Jewish, is a former Majority Leader in the Florida House of Representatives. He was running in the Senate race but dropped down to the open house race after Mack jumped in the senate race.
http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/political/lois-frankel-adam-hasner-congressional-race-close-exclusive-wptv-poll-shows
5 points in liberals Washington state but 6 points in swing state Ohio?
More PPP b.s flushes down the toilet.
I’m a different Michael and I’ve been going by Mike. I think in WA, we’re prob down 5-8 points. Not huge but too big to waste money there.
What I do think Romney should do is begin the stealth attack on PA OR MN and NM next week, mid week.
Scotty is obviously way off; TommyJ would never deceive us like that.
Or, we can simply average the two polls and come up with Zero @+9. I actually think Mitt can keep it at a respectable 54-45 a la Bush in 2000 (the 53-46 in 2004 might be a bridge too far).
Michael, is that the real you at 378?
Ok ok
Oregon. Let’s make like pixelated pioneers and grab our oxen to Oregon.
In a Romney victory in Florida that the district would actually be considered a pretty swingy. More like 52-48.
In that FL-22 poll, note also that Romney only trails by 7 (51-44) in a district that Obama won by 14 points in 2008. Come on home, Florida.
WOW- is this real??
http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012
@403 just to be clear then you are Mike. Second it is illogical what you are assuming, Olympia, Tacoma, and Seattle will never go for Romney and will keep O’s lead double digits unfortunately
Oregon is a different story
@405 nope a guy who calls himself Mike now that’s his handle now since I already had this one
Whatever the PPP agenda regarding Washington poll, huge cross tab:
Of those polled, they voted by 20 margin for O in 2008. That is 3% MORE than actual vote margin – so that group now shows a 5% race. Spin it any way you wish, that is an unmitigated disaster for O.
I remember about a month ago everyone (including myself), were whining about where is all the Romney ads. Why isn’t he spending his money? Well, I think we are all about to find out.
Look at the gov poll for Washington completely illogical.
Alas, PPP has McKenna down 6 in the governor’s race. I ahd hoped that if Mitt could perform respectably, McK could eke out the win. Inslee is such a bum.
Everyone was not whining. That was only the eyores.
Oregon will go to obama. Portland/eugene/salem/corvallis….the population ctrs (primarily pdx/eug) would NEVER vote for a republican. Forget oregon. Only the naive think there is a chance Oregon goes R. Ever lived there? Why the hell do you think those lefties have mail in voting? It assures the D of winning.
Romney 380+
Matthews Hints at Romney’s ‘Bad’ Motives for Confronting Obama: Mitt ‘Looks Down’ on the President
Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2012/10/17/matthews-hints-romneys-bad-motives-confronting-obama-mitt-looks-down#ixzz29bNOxaIQ
343 – that’s something I was thinking about today. Maybe too late to get it started and may be not possible to do without political backlash, but could Romney campaign tap into some of that liberal disillusion with Obama by getting Green Party candidate Jill Stein some exposure? I was thinking white liberal college towns might be very susceptible to this strategy. Maybe not TV ads but blanket campuses with Stein flyers and hope to pull some Obama voters away. State College, Lansing, Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison, Ames, Minneapolis, Corvallis, Eugene.
How in the world is Romney going to get to 380 without a state like OR? In 2008, OR was more GOP than MI was.
419 EAST Lansing
415 – Romney closer than McKenna is nonsensicle.
418- Question for Matthews: How is that different (would it be true, of course) than the open contempt that the President has for Governor Romney?
YolandaReports poll:
Should Candy Crowley retire from journalism?
Yes 3%
No 2%
She was never a journalist 95%
420- True, but with a caveat; Mac publicly pulled out of MI and apparently miffed some folks up there who expected the candidates to court them (being a “battleground” state and all). Zero’s margin may have been inflated a bit as a result.
if obama wins
it will be very depressing.
i will actually have to funnel more money out of the country.
better overseas than in obama’s friends’ pockets.
Your thinking to much EML.
Romney needs to plow his cash into Ohio now.
lisab says:
October 17, 2012 at 7:31 pm
if obama wins
it will be very depressing.
i will actually have to funnel more money out of the country.
better overseas than in obama’s friends’ pockets
-Is this really lisab? Ever since you moved to NY, you seem to be making more sense. It must be the water!
427 – I was doing the thinking while running 5 miles today
hey we’ve got close races in IA, WI, MI, PA. Every little bit counts. If we can get liberal idealists (think WEC for the other side) to go for Stein instead of Obama, we may be able to flip the state. The trick would be to do it without getting “caught”.
428. What do you think he is doing? Spending it in California?
Lisa are you registered in NY yet? Pres and Sen race are gone but you are probably in a competitive congressional district. I assume either Tom Reed or Slaughter.
azguy, I have given every state to Romney except
CA, OR, IL, NY, VT, ME, MA, CT, DE, MD, DC, RI and still can only get him to 378. So what state does he get to tip 380?
Hey Losers! Still hurting from that ass kicking last night are we pussys?
Woman are Going to Cut Mitts Nuts off and hand them to his ugly wife!
LOLOLOL
OBAMA
PPP says
50% Obama
45% Romney
in….drummroll…
Washington state…
http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-oct-2012
I also would ask everyone to notice that this here Mike/Michael never gets his handle stolen! Not just anyone can handle the NYC, IN THE HOUSE!
Bill Nelson sounds and looks old at this debate, very bad optics for him.
Keep an eye on the Florida Senate race. I have a feeling this one could go the way it did in 2004.
@436 Mike back p I am Michael and that’s that, this is between o and Mike NOT ME I just pointed it out
ryhuti says:
October 17, 2012 at 7:40 pm
Hey Losers! Still hurting from that ass kicking last night are we pussys?
Woman are Going to Cut Mitts Nuts off and hand them to his ugly wife!
LOLOLOL
OBAMA
-Women are voting for Romney, fool! Even Obama admitted it. Didn’t you hear him, he said “yours is bigger than mine!”.
DW
I always thought the Paladin polls were an insider HHR joke? Do you actually run polls, or not?
Interesting how the left is characterizing the polls today as predebate. I think they think Obama is going to have a surge. I don’t think I have seen anything from the debate or today to have another realignment. A couple day mini bump perhaps but no realignment.
434. Hey genius, answer this:
When Obama called his grandmother an average white woman, was he being racist or misogynist or both?
Everyone I bet the reason why his math makes it to 380 is because he is probably saying that some of the electors might flip votes. In 2000 one DC elector didn’t show up
Whereismycar? he is Still behind hence it means nothing.
Romney is Toast!
Good move…
Ryan and Condi drop by Browns practice after campaign rally…
Crap team but they are loved in Ohio…
DW did you guys just poll PA tonight, and was it robo? Because then I voted in it for my gma
PPP has already tipped their hand. They are already planning on showing an Obama bump from the second debate.
REMEMBER THIS POST over the next few days!
PPP releasing CO, IA, NH on Thursday/Friday then OH Saturday.
Romney will not lead in a single one of them.
I actually think Ann Romney is quite radiant.
441. Most of the talk has been about Lybia and Obama lying with Candy Crowley’s help. The trolls should unbuckle his seat belt by himself.
EML: Please. PPP would never give Romney a lead bigger than 2% in ANY swing state poll more than 7 days out from the election.
444. He’s still behind? Have you seen the Gallup Poll? What the hell are you smokin? Like to get me some of that.
Hang on zero. Rescue polls acomin’!
447. I agree
@444,
Washington state? close? The last time Washington state went Red was Reagan. If Washington state is close Obama is toast everywhere else.
Marv says:
October 17, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Derek Jeter said that he is for Obama.
I noticed that Jeter broke his ankle and the Yankees are about to be swept.
This all coincides with Obama’s plunge in the polls and increasingly bleak prospects for re-election.
It’s all so clear to me.
-Did Jeter really endorse Obama? I have never heard him get political whatsoever. If he did, he is a schmuck. Nunez will replace him next year anyway. Out with the old, in with the new, Jeter and Obama will play golf next January 21, 2013.
Larry Sabato has made two more moves:
PA goes from LKY Obama to Lean Obama
WI goes from Lean Obama to Toss up
NC and FL are Lean Romney
VA, CO, and NH are Toss up
OH, NV, and IA are lean Obama
MI is LKY Obama
I actually think Ann Romney is quite radiant.???? ?LOL Her Horse maybe!
Missed this about PA-SEN:
http://www.politicspa.com/casey-smith-schedule-a-debate-finally/42543/
In light of tonight’s FL-SEN debate (and if Nelson really isn’t looking good; don’t know as I cannot watch it here), I have to wonder if Casey will come out the better for it.
456. VA, CO, and NH are Toss up
VA – not lean Romney? That Sabato is a doosh.
EML- I can already see the ‘were really seeing an Obama surge out here’ tweet despite what the polls and focus groups showed last night.
Bill Nelson is really booming in this debate. Mack is very good on t.v
457- OK, I’ve tolerated you b/c you were quite inconsequential, but now you’ve crossed the line of decency. As we say in Philly, GFY!
Good night all! Time to go home.
If Romney stays up 5 or 6 in Gallup, it won’t matter what type of BS PPP spits out over the next few days.
I don’t know if this was posted already but it just showed up on SUSA’s website.
SUSA still has Obama up in Ohio.
45-42
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fe706c7-86ef-4698-b0d3-15ec2d79d203
I can shut this site down in a minute
Bronxie…
Did you read today that A-Rod may be traded to Miami?…
Brandon, you know what you call a state where the Incumbent is only getting 45% of the vote?
OVAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
New PPP Poll has Florida +1 Obama!
468. Oh, that must be why Obama is pulling out of the state. LOL
Independents go for Romney 41-33 in the Ohio poll, I am not buying it!
The troll really is embarrassing itself
If I’m betting on a firewall state where I am only getting 45% of the vote. Well, good luck with that.
I actually think Ann Romney is quite radiant.???? ?LOL Her Horse maybe!
Comment by ryhuti — October 17, 2012 @ 7:52 pm
Hide your barnyard animals, everyone.
@471 who is the troll?
#461 jan,
Do you mean Bill Nelson is really bombing in this debate?
Hunter says:
October 17, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Bronxie…
Did you read today that A-Rod may be traded to Miami?…
-Dreams do come true??
As long as we are throwing civility out the window…speaking of horses, what do you think of Michelle Obama’s face?
470. If Romney wins Indy vote in Ohio by 8 he wins easily.
Are white mens pensions bigger than black mens pensions or is that just a stereotype?
Goodnight all!
How come Eye Candy has such trouble with women?:
his wife can’t stand him.
his grandmother was average,
his media director quit on him, and
his debate coach is gonna sue
I guess only Reggie Love knows?
@478 that’s why I don’t buy the Ohio poll, if Romney wins indies by three and gets 96% of GOP vote than Romney should lead
“Lisa are you registered in NY yet? ”
MA
I’m sorry, but no sane observer thinks zero is ahead in FL any more.
Say what you will about the NRA (they SUCK! The flatbackin’ hos endorsed Harry fn Reid!)… I’m still mighty glad the NRA is on the Romney side in O-hi-o.
Second Amendment issues never got my own juices flowing especially, but… that’s what is meant by “coalition.”
Incumbent Obama at 45% in OH less than 3 weeks before the election is terrible news for dems. Romney is definitely ahead there now.
And there’s that moronic 18% already voted sample.
Per SOS and counties, 10% with some counties not reported.
D + 7???. The internals say that Mr. Romney leads Ohio by at least 1.5 points.
Where can Tommy go with Ohio. He had it 51-46 after the debate to show there was no movement. What this time 53-44(No shame Tommy)
The new Survey USA Ohio Poll is a D+7 poll and claims that Obama has a 20 pt. lead among early voters,who comprise 18% of the electorate. The 18% flies in the face of the real,raw data.
Amazing! Obama is stuck at 45% just a few weeks before the election. He’s toast.
Obama was stuck in the same position in NC, FL and VA and has essentially decided to pull out of those states.
The Obama campaign is imploding.
The 18% is people who’ve already voted, plus people who INTEND to vote early, but haven’t yet, & fudge their answer, probably.
Actually this OH poll concerns me. Why can’t Romney get ahead in OH….he needs to dump all of his cash there now. And in WI/NH.
In fact, forget everywhere else except OH WI NH.
Yes Marv.
I read the politico article on NC. He hasn’t been there which we all predicted. It didn’t say he stopped advertising though he will. I seriously doubt he has “pulled out” of fla or va and if he has wed all love the proof so we can disseminate it.
He is ahead in Ohio and yes you are right, he needs to do more TV ads here to maintain his lead.
SUSA says the incumbent stuck at 45% in OHIO? OUCH. He’s done.
Next..
Karl Rove: No Candidate Has Ever Polled Over 50% in Gallup LV Poll in October and Lost
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=G-HALE2InRo
470 – So 25% of independent voters are undecided?
492. The only thing that should be concerning about the OHIO poll is the 45% number. Incumbents don’t win states with 45% of the vote. This should concern Obama.
http://www.dailykos.com/
To Bad for Willard kids.
Who’s watching Rachael Mandow tonight?
This troll is really stupid.
The Marist poll last week had 18%. PPP: 18%. Survey USA 18%. All taken days apart, Marist and SUSA 6 days apart. Since we know the actual numbers reported in the largest counties, it was crap last week, crap now, and the numbers from these polls themselves now contradict each other, as thousands of ballots have been mailed back, around the 5-digit range, in the space between Thursday and Monday.
502. Not sure anyone at MSNBC has gotten over their focus group fawning over Romney and panning Eye Candy. #awkwardandembarrassing
Oh, Mitt, you’re screwed now, buddy. And no amount of aspirin between your knees can protect you from this:
Gallup poll showing top concerns of women voters in swing states, Oct. 5-11, 2012
According to Gallup:
[A] significant percentage of female voters are concerned with social issues such as abortion and equality — issues not mentioned by men, and issues that play to Obama’s strengths.
The drive by comes over from dailykos but ignores the daily kos poll which shows obama getting his ass kicked. Fortunately, that’s covered under obamacare.
506. Good advice but how come Eye Candy has such trouble with women?:
his wife can’t stand him.
his grandmother was average,
his media director quit on him, and
his debate coach is gonna sue
I guess only Reggie Love knows?
Survey USA shows even if O wins Ohio it is not because of the auto bail out. A majority are opposed or have no opinion.
506. LOL, you don’t give women enough credit. IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID!!!
Ohio isn’t a d+7 , it will be minimal an r+2
Adrian Gray: Iowa: Ballot data continues to mirror 2004 at this point. Just 2.6k off of 2004. About 60k or below by election day is good for GOP
This is why I think we win IOWA.
Why do we attract these mentally challenged trolls? My recommendation is for the troll to go back to the daily kooks ASAP and join their low IQ discussions.
who’s adrian gray?
Republicans are talking about how to fix the $16 trillion debt (adding another trillion every year), 8% unemployment, highest number of people ever in poverty, a nuclear Iran and a government that let’s our ambassadors die and then lie about the situation. Democrats want to talk about Big bird and binders. Time for Democrats to let the adults take over.
Also (troll) why does Eye Candy pay his women workers so much less than men?
All the new trolls who’ve showed up today (with unfamiliar screen names) are the SAME troll.
The “regular” trolls (with familiar screen names) are quiet the last few days, I noticed.
Electorate is D+7 in Ohio.
What do you know, it’s 2008 all over again.
Not
I will admit, I have no clue if proud obamacon is a brilliant parody or a real idiot. W ryhuti, I know.
“Survey USA shows even if O wins Ohio it is not because of the auto bail out.” BINGO! Mr. Obama ain’t winning Ohio anyway.
Anyone notice California moved to Strong Obama from Solid Obama on Electionprojection? And that he now has NC, IN, FL, CO, and VA in Romney column?
And (troll) why does Eye Candy need a “body man?” HmmmMMM?
#516 lol your username is Peasant? Is that why you’re voting for Obama?
You know he’s not a champion of the lower class and he will raise taxes on everyone in some way or another.
Agreed Phil Ohio is not a d+ 7 , I am from Ohio, it is an r +2
I remember the trolls of ’04! Eve of Elections; K-Bob; & WBH.
Now back then, we had REAL trolls! Funny,,, they all disappeared themselves on election night & never came back.
A Casey-Smith debate will have no impact because people don’t watch Senate Debates in PA. They are often taped and shown at 10:00 am on a Sunday.
523. Not voting for President Eye Candy. Please keep up.
Ad, I’m taking LSU -3 for $500. I have no aversion to betting against my school when a one in a lifetime line presents itself. It’s strictly business.
Ryhutijabutti…. If Romney is down only 5 in
Washington, he is up 12 in Florida.. Pound sand!
You quote PPP you have to deal with reality!
I wish that Kwame and KeyBored would return for the week before the election. Those were trolls, damn it!
525. They moved to Canada and now vote for the NDP.
At some point [soon] PPP has to start doing real polls. I suppose they can work overtime and do all 10-12 swing states the last week before the election.
Speaking of Canadian communists… I guess Cory finally gave up & left. I could never get Comrade Cory to say whether he had abandoned his beloved Grits for the NDP or not.
Romney will make such a good president. If and when Obama loses, history will write how the dems blew it by not nominating Hillary.
She wouldn’t have been so vastly naive and arrogant as Obama to push such a far-reaching increase in entitlement spending during a recession. If the dems had managed this recovery better, its hard to see how the GOP could have recovered after its brand was basically equal to cow dung in 2008.
But instead we got some moron chicago community organizer with absolutely no sense of priorities in how to govern and absolutely no fluency in the issues that matter to national government.
“[A] significant percentage of female voters are concerned with social issues ”
want to know about a social issue women care about?
not being able to afford children because the obama economy sucks.
534. Agree but still amazed at what anyone sees in Shrillary for 2016.
Diogenes is a stone-clod lying sack of zh*t, aren’t you adzhole?
“KeyBored would return for the week before the election. Those were trolls, damn it!”
keybored converted to anti-obama
by 2010
One of the main things that I miss about this election cycle is that guy from 2008 who claimed he had real time data on the RAS nightly tracking samples.
“McCain is cratering on the east coast”
IIRC by this time in 2008, hadnt McCain pulled out of MI? Wasnt he the one conceding states?
Marv,
unfortunately he would say the polls would drop for mccain
and 9 out of 10 times he was right
average weeks unemployed
under reagan: 15 weeks
under obama: 39 weeks
I came here around 4 years ago this time. Was sucked in by the bradley effects and polaris’ siren songs but I enjoyed taking out drivebys. At least 4 years ago they had a vision. Now they’re as tired as obama
#541 lisab,
I’m surprised that someone hasn’t already surfaced here and to do the same thing.
Whatever happened to Chekote?
Addisonst,
There won’t be anymore “Bradley Effect.” Because of Obama, nobody is afraid anymore to say that “this black guy sucks”. That was demonstrated last night on both the Luntz focus group and the MSNBC focus group. Even the black guy said that Obama sucks. That is major racial progress in this country.
Peasant,
Our lisab attacked Chekote and ran her off.
It was a beautiful thing to see.
547. Wished I had seen that. She was insufferable. What a pill.
There are actual human beings who think mitts binder comment was a big deal.
545 – chekote is here someone. No way she would just drop HHR. Same for Kommie Kory. He posts under other handles as one of the trolls. I’m sure of it.
Marv, Obama shattered the bradley effect last time. I’m not so sure it doesn’t exist but I’m not relying on it this time.
Kommie Kory won’t be back unless he thinks s4b is back in the lead. Kommie Kory is a leading indicator.
Gallup Party Self-ID
Registered Voters
24 Sep-14 Oct (3 week sample)
Dem—-34.5
Rep—-33.7
Ind—-31.8
http://www.gallup.com/poll/154559/US-Presidential-Election-Center.aspx?ref=interactive
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/mediaCenter/2012/2012-10-17.aspx
Boom. Only 407,000 in, out of close to 6million total 08/04 vote.
Nowhere near 18%, and those # through yesterday’ Like listening to the scare tactics of Dems on their absentee totals for the walker recall.
New thread
Michelle O…revealed her “rebel” self when she clapped during an important part of the debate and did not apologize.