Romney Surges Into Tie in PPP National Poll / Leads By 1% in FL Poll
Mitt Romney has surged into a tie in the latest edition of Public Policy Polling national tracking poll released this morning.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (PPP Tracking)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
This edition was done October 18-20 among 1200 likely voters. The poll consists of 42% Democrats and 36% Republicans. We also have a new poll from Public Policy Polling done for Naples Daily News and Scripps showing Romney up by a single percentage point in Florida.
PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (PPP)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
This poll was done October 17-18 among 800 likely voters.
NV early vote is 14% less Dem and Obama won the state by 12%?
Senate will go R
New thread…just kidding.
Heh. PPP shifting from agenda polling to “polling for score.”
Howard Dean says:
October 21, 2012 at 8:46 am
I suggested this would happen over the Summer.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/20/unions-focus-more-on-state-and-local-races/?test=latestnews
I remember that post HD.
Penn State 5 – 2. Kicked some butt last night. Would be 6 – 1 if we had a kicker.
Just saying. Oh, and lost 7 starters just before the season began. Bill O’Brien won’t be at PSU for long. He will be coaching in the NFL.
MD, I think we were talking mostly about CA. But it looks like the concern has spread to other states.
Which is great. Every little bit helps.
MD – The Inquirer endorsed Jul’s candidate for AG. It cited her strong position against guns and her opponent’s support by the NRA. I can’t wait to see how gun-owner Jul fits that endorsement into his True COnservative Principles.
#3, I pray you are right, Pitch. The recent Wisco numbers make me feel better about things.
We probably will still need a flip in Virginia, Ohio, Conn or Florida to secure things in case Brown loses in Mass. I’m starting to get a little worried there.
2 weeks ago immediately post-1st debate, internal polling in PA still left it looking meh. “Forget about it”.
That has changed in the past week, with more attention now on changes in the Philly suburbs. MD who posts here rightly said repeatedly the biggest beast for PA are the “moderate” voters in places like Montgomery Co and Delaware. Philadelphia margin is a real bear but is made all the more insurmountable thanks to the two closest counties to it. Per internals, these places may have begun cracking. PA talk and whip-up is a head-fake but may change if those SEPA # continue in internals. They will make/break Romney’s decision.
Reuters/Ipsos daily web poll…Romney gained two points on Obama from yesterday
O46
R45
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-web-15996
I wonder if alot of their rank and file is switching to Romney over jobs/industry regs? Not SEIU of course, but the old guard Ironworkers, Coal miners, Carpenters, etc.
Romney will drag in some Senators
It baffles me that Mitt is trading under 40 on IT overall but around 41 for Ohio which is now a proxy for the election.
For those so inclined you can get 2-1 hot mitt action for him to win Ohio on the UK bookie sites. I’m seriously considering it.
PPP poll…Romney gained two points on Obama from yesterday in this as poll as well.
I like the trend so far.
Endorses Mitt.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/editorials/2012/10/21/for-president.html
Pitch, where do you still see automatic or safe sen pickups and do you have Mass going d or r?
nbc national 47-47
That second debate bounce for Obama should be kicking in annnnnny minute now…
Comment by Ac1 — October 21, 2012 @ 9:01 am
Link?
Huge article at Yahoo on McCain switchers to Obama.
Absolutely, hilarious. They quote the same dimwit repeatedly over 3 paragraphs.
No bias whatsoever.
Couldn’t make this stuff up.
14- In the UK even the Tory papers seem largely more sympathetic to Obama (alot of Tory opinion-makers are more aristocratic than Thatcherite) They still have a fair bit of distaste for business and commerce as represented by Romney.
Did I read that Romney is scheduling a rally in PA? Saw it on the last thread but haven’t been able to confirm.
Anon – If Romney could actually win (not just improve) Montco and Delco, then PA is up for grabs. Still, every 4 years we seem to get a poll or 2 that shows PA close and then the hammer drops. Delco could be different though. A lot of blue collar, union people who could abandon Obama since he hasn’t done much for them. They also tend to be socially conservative. Montco is a bit different. Most of the R’s are more liberal socially than many of the D’s in Delco.
However, it is also where the Jewish people reside in the burbs for the most part. That could be interesting. We will have to see.
9 I live in RI, MA tv and radio ads all over RI …Brown is losing..he switched his ads to sound more like Warren..Boston helping him out with RNC ad blitz in northern MA-NH border…very difficult race for Brown, indies must pull him out
It’s true- NBC says its 47-47
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203630604578070354133512978.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Did I read that Romney is scheduling a rally in PA? Saw it on the last thread but haven’t been able to confirm.
….
Townhall with Bolton.
Dave picked my Panthers!
Phil
Remember the articles over the summer that “proved” the military was turning towards Obama? They talked to 2 people.
NBC is behind a paywall.
BG- tomorrow should see Romney plus 1 or 2.
Rasmussen:
(R/D)
D +3 49.4%/47.1%
D +2 49.7%/46.7%
D +1 50.2%/46.4%
R +0 50.5%/46.0%
R +1 50.9%/45.6%
R +2 51.2%/45.3%
2008: 21-Oct/46%/50%/-4%
2012: 21-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
Aug,Sept & October trends (no leaners)
GREAT NEWS BUT STILL STATISTICAL NOISE
21-Oct/49%/46%/+3%
20-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
19-Oct/47%/48%/-1%
18-Oct/49%/46%/+3%
17-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
16-Oct/49%/46%/+3%
15-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
14-Oct/48%/46%/+2%
13-Oct/47%/47%/+0%
12-Oct/47%/46%/+1%
11-Oct/47%/47%/+0%
10-Oct/48%/46%/+2%
09-Oct/48%/46%/+2%
08-Oct/47%/46%/+1%
07-Oct/48%/46%/+2%
06-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
05-Oct/46%/48%/-2%
04-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
03-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
02-Oct/46%/47%/-1%
01-Oct/45%/48%/-3%
30-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
29-Sep/46%/48%/-2%
28-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
27-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
26-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
25-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
24-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
23-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
22-Sep/46%/46%/+0%
21-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
20-Sep/45%/47%/-2%
19-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
18-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
17-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
16-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
15-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
14-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
13-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
12-Sep/45%/46%/-1%
11-Sep/45%/48%/-3%
10-Sep/45%/50%/-5%
09-Sep/45%/49%/-4%
08-Sep/44%/46%/-2%
07-Sep/46%/45%/+1%
06-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
05-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
04-Sep/47%/45%/+2%
03-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
02-Sep/48%/44%/+4%
01-Sep/47%/44%/+3%
31-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
30-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
29-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
28-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
27-Aug/44%/47%/-3%
26-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
25-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
24-Aug/46%/45%/+1%
23-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
22-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
21-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
20-Aug/44%/43%/+1%
19-Aug/43%/45%/-2%
18-Aug/44%/46%/-2%
17-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
16-Aug/45%/44%/+1%
15-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
14-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
13-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
12-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
11-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
10-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
09-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
08-Aug/45%/45%/+0%
07-Aug/45%/46%/-1%
06-Aug/45%/47%/-2%
05-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
04-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
03-Aug/47%/43%/+4%
02-Aug/46%/44%/+2%
01-Aug/47%/44%/+3%
August, September & October trends (with leaners)
CLOSER TO 49.5% THAN 49.0% BUT STILL STATISTICAL NOISE
21-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
20-Oct/49%/48%/+1%
19-Oct/48%/48%/+0%
18-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
17-Oct/49%/48%/+1%
16-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
15-Oct/49%/48%/+1%
14-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
13-Oct/49%/48%/+1%
12-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
11-Oct/47%/48%/-1%
10-Oct/48%/47%/+1%
09-Oct/48%/48%/+0%
08-Oct/48%/48%/+0%
07-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
06-Oct/49%/47%/+2%
05-Oct/47%/49%/-2%
04-Oct/47%/49%/-3%
03-Oct/47%/49%/-2%
02-Oct/47%/48%/-1%
01-Oct/47%/50%/-3%
30-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
29-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
28-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
27-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
26-Sep/48%/46%/+2%
25-Sep/47%/47%/+0%
24-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
23-Sep/48%/48%/-1%
22-Sep/47%/48%/-1%
21-Sep/46%/49%/-3%
20-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
19-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
18-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
17-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
16-Sep/48%/49%/-1%
15-Sep/48%/48%/+0%
14-Sep/50%/47%/+3%
13-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
12-Sep/48%/47%/+1%
11-Sep/47%/49%/-2%
10-Sep/46%/50%/-4%
09-Sep/47%/50%/-3%
08-Sep/46%/47%/-1%
07-Sep/47%/46%/+1%
06-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
05-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
04-Sep/49%/47%/+2%
03-Sep/50%/46%/+4%
02-Sep/49%/45%/+4%
01-Sep/48%/45%/+3%
31-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
30-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
29-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
28-Aug/46%/48%/-2%
27-Aug/45%/49%/-4%
26-Aug/46%/49%/-3%
25-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
24-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
23-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
22-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
21-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
20-Aug/47%/46%/+1%
19-Aug/46%/47%/-1%
18-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
17-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
16-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
15-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
14-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
13-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
12-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
11-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
10-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
09-Aug/49%/44%/+5%
08-Aug/48%/46%/+2%
07-Aug/47%/47%/+0%
06-Aug/47%/48%/-1%
05-Aug/48%/45%/+3%
04-Aug/47%/45%/+2%
03-Aug/50%/44%/+6%
02-Aug/49%/45%/+4%
01-Aug/50%/45%/+5%
Rolling 7-Day Averages (with leaners)
INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT; NO CHANGE
21-Oct/48.86%/47.57%/+1.29%
20-Oct/48.86%/47.57%/+1.29%
19-Oct/48.86%/47.57%/+1.29%
18-Oct/48.86%/47.43%/+1.43%
17-Oct/48.57%/47.57%/+1.00%
16-Oct/48.43%/47.43%/+1.00%
15-Oct/48.29%/47.57%/+0.71%
14-Oct/48.14%/47.57%/+0.57%
13-Oct/48.14%/47.57%/+0.57%
12-Oct/48.14%/47.43%/+0.71%
11-Oct/48.00%/47.71%/+0.29%
10-Oct/48.00%/47.86%/+0.14%
09-Oct/47.86%/48.14%/-0.29%
08-Oct/47.71%/48.14%/-0.43%
07-Oct/47.57%/48.43%/-0.86%
06-Oct/47.29%/48.71%/-1.43%
05-Oct/47.00%/49.00%/-2.00%
04-Oct/47.14%/48.86%/-1.71%
03-Oct/47.29%/48.71%/-1.43%
02-Oct/47.43%/48.29%/-0.86%
01-Oct/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
30-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
29-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
28-Sep/47.71%/47.57%/+0.14%
27-Sep/47.43%/47.71%/-0.29%
26-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
25-Sep/47.29%/48.29%/-1.00%
24-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
23-Sep/47.43%/48.43%/-1.00%
22-Sep/47.43%/48.57%/-1.14%
21-Sep/47.57%/48.57%/-1.00%
20-Sep/48.14%/48.29%/-0.14%
19-Sep/48.43%/47.86%/+0.57%
18-Sep/48.43%/47.71%/+0.71%
17-Sep/48.29%/47.86%/+0.43%
16-Sep/48.00%/48.14%/-0.14%
15-Sep/47.86%/48.29%/-0.43%
14-Sep/47.57%/48.14%/-0.57%
13-Sep/47.14%/48.00%/-0.86%
12-Sep/47.14%/47.71%/-0.57%
11-Sep/47.29%/47.71%/-0.43%
10-Sep/47.57%/47.43%/+0.14%
09-Sep/48.14%/46.86%/+1.29%
08-Sep/48.43%/46.14%/+2.29%
07-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
06-Sep/48.71%/45.86%/+2.86%
05-Sep/48.43%/46.29%/+2.14%
04-Sep/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
03-Sep/47.57%/46.57%/+1.00%
02-Sep/46.86%/47.00%/-0.14%
01-Sep/46.43%/47.57%/-1.14%
31-Aug/46.29%/48.00%/-1.71%
30-Aug/46.43%/48.00%/-1.57%
29-Aug/46.57%/47.71%/-1.14%
28-Aug/46.86%/47.29%/-0.43%
27-Aug/47.00%/47.00%/+0.00%
26-Aug/47.29%/46.57%/+0.71%
25-Aug/47.29%/46.29%/+1.00%
24-Aug/47.29%/46.14%/+1.14%
23-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
22-Aug/47.14%/46.29%/+0.86%
21-Aug/47.43%/46.14%/+1.29%
20-Aug/47.86%/46.00%/+1.86%
19-Aug/48.29%/45.86%/+2.43%
18-Aug/48.57%/45.57%/+3.00%
17-Aug/48.71%/45.29%/+3.43%
16-Aug/49.00%/44.86%/+4.14%
15-Aug/49.14%/44.57%/+4.57%
14-Aug/48.86%/44.86%/+4.00%
13-Aug/48.43%/45.14%/+3.29%
12-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
11-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
10-Aug/47.86%/45.57%/+2.29%
09-Aug/48.00%/45.57%/+2.43%
08-Aug/48.00%/45.71%/+2.29%
07-Aug/48.29%/45.57%/+2.71%
Rolling 7-Day Averages (no leaners)
SMALL INCREASE FOR ROMNEY, STATISTICAL NOISE
21-Oct/48.29%/46.71%/+1.57%
20-Oct/48.14%/46.71%/+1.43%
19-Oct/48.00%/46.71%/+1.29%
18-Oct/48.00%/46.43%/+1.57%
17-Oct/47.71%/46.57%/+1.14%
16-Oct/47.71%/46.43%/+1.29%
15-Oct/47.57%/46.43%/+1.14%
14-Oct/47.43%/46.29%/+1.14%
13-Oct/47.43%/46.29%/+1.14%
12-Oct/47.57%/46.29%/+1.29%
11-Oct/47.43%/46.57%/+0.86%
10-Oct/47.14%/46.71%/+0.43%
09-Oct/46.71%/47.00%/-0.29%
08-Oct/46.43%/47.14%/-0.71%
07-Oct/46.14%/47.43%/-1.29%
06-Oct/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
05-Oct/45.57%/47.86%/-2.29%
04-Oct/45.57%/47.71%/-2.14%
03-Oct/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
02-Oct/45.86%/47.14%/-1.29%
01-Oct/45.86%/47.14%/-1.29%
30-Sep/46.00%/47.00%/-1.00%
29-Sep/46.00%/46.71%/-0.71%
28-Sep/46.00%/46.43%/-0.43%
27-Sep/45.86%/46.29%/-0.43%
26-Sep/45.71%/46.43%/-0.71%
25-Sep/45.86%/46.43%/-0.57%
24-Sep/46.00%/46.14%/-0.14%
23-Sep/46.14%/45.86%/+0.29%
22-Sep/46.29%/45.86%/+0.43%
21-Sep/46.57%/45.86%/+0.71%
20-Sep/47.00%/45.71%/+1.29%
19-Sep/47.29%/45.57%/+1.71%
18-Sep/47.00%/45.57%/+1.43%
17-Sep/46.71%/46.00%/+0.71%
16-Sep/46.43%/46.71%/-0.29%
15-Sep/46.14%/47.14%/-1.00%
14-Sep/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
13-Sep/45.29%/47.14%/-1.86%
12-Sep/45.29%/46.86%/-1.57%
11-Sep/45.71%/46.71%/-1.00%
10-Sep/46.00%/46.29%/-0.29%
09-Sep/46.43%/45.43%/+1.00%
08-Sep/46.86%/44.71%/+2.14%
07-Sep/47.29%/44.43%/+2.86%
06-Sep/47.14%/44.29%/+2.86%
05-Sep/46.86%/44.43%/+2.43%
04-Sep/46.43%/44.57%/+1.86%
03-Sep/46.14%/44.86%/+1.29%
02-Sep/45.57%/45.29%/+0.29%
01-Sep/45.14%/45.71%/-0.57%
31-Aug/44.86%/46.00%/-1.14%
30-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
29-Aug/45.00%/46.14%/-1.14%
28-Aug/45.14%/45.86%/-0.71%
27-Aug/45.14%/45.43%/-0.29%
26-Aug/45.14%/44.86%/+0.29%
25-Aug/44.86%/44.57%/+0.29%
24-Aug/44.71%/44.57%/+0.14%
23-Aug/44.57%/44.71%/-0.14%
22-Aug/44.57%/44.57%/+0.00%
21-Aug/44.71%/44.43%/+0.29%
20-Aug/45.00%/44.43%/+0.57%
19-Aug/45.43%/44.57%/+0.86%
McCain/Obama/2008 (with leaners)
7-Day Rolling Average:
WOW, THE MCCAIN SURGE CONTINUES
21-Oct/45.57%/50.14%/-4.43%
20-Oct/45.43%/50.14%/-4.71%
19-Oct/45.14%/50.14%/-5.00%
18-Oct/45.14%/50.14%/-5.00%
17-Oct/45.29%/50.43%/-5.14%
16-Oct/45.14%/50.43%/-5.29%
15-Oct/45.00%/50.43%/-5.43%
14-Oct/45.00%/50.57%/-5.57%
13-Oct/44.86%/50.86%/-6.00%
12-Oct/44.71%/51.14%/-6.43%
11-Oct/44.57%/51.14%/-6.57%
10-Oct/44.57%/51.00%/-6.43%
09-Oct/44.43%/51.14%/-6.71%
08-Oct/44.29%/51.29%/-7.00%
07-Oct/44.29%/51.29%/-7.00%
06-Oct/44.43%/51.14%/-6.71%
05-Oct/44.57%/50.86%/-6.29%
04-Oct/44.57%/50.71%/-6.14%
03-Oct/44.43%/50.57%/-6.14%
02-Oct/44.57%/50.43%/-5.86%
01-Oct/45.00%/50.14%/-5.14%
30-Sep/45.14%/49.80%/-4.71%
29-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
28-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
27-Sep/46.57%/48.71%/-2.14%
26-Sep/47.00%/48.43%/-1.43%
25-Sep/47.14%/48.29%/-1.14%
24-Sep/47.43%/48.14%/-0.71%
23-Sep/47.57%/47.86%/-0.29%
22-Sep/47.57%/47.71%/-0.14%
21-Sep/47.86%/47.57%/+0.29%
20-Sep/48.29%/47.43%/+0.86%
19-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
18-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
17-Sep/48.71%/46.86%/+1.86%
16-Sep/48.57%/47.00%/+1.57%
15-Sep/48.57%/47.14%/+1.43%
14-Sep/48.43%/47.14%/+1.29%
13-Sep/48.14%/47.29%/+0.86%
12-Sep/47.71%/47.71%/+0.00%
11-Sep/47.29%/48.00%/-0.71%
10-Sep/46.86%/48.29%/-1.43%
09-Sep/46.57%/48.57%/-2.00%
08-Sep/46.14%/49.00%/-2.86%
07-Sep/45.86%/49.29%/-3.43%
06-Sep/45.57%/49.43%/-3.86%
05-Sep/45.43%/49.43%/-4.00%
04-Sep/45.29%/49.57%/-4.28%
03-Sep/45.57%/49.14%/-3.57%
02-Sep/45.86%/48.57%/-2.71%
01-Sep/46.00%/47.86%/-1.86%
31-Aug/45.86%/47.71%/-1.86%
30-Aug/45.71%/47.57%/-1.86%
29-Aug/45.86%/47.43%/-1.57%
28-Aug/46.00%/47.14%/-1.14%
27-Aug/45.86%/47.29%/-1.43%
26-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
25-Aug/45.57%/47.57%/-2.00%
24-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
23-Aug/45.71%/47.29%/-1.57%
22-Aug/45.57%/47.00%/-1.43%
21-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
20-Aug/45.43%/46.86%/-1.43%
19-Aug/45.43%/47.00%/-1.57%
18-Aug/45.57%/47.14%/-1.57%
17-Aug/45.57%/47.29%/-1.71%
16-Aug/45.71%/47.43%/-1.71%
Difference 2008 vs. 2012 (with leaners)
APPROXIMATELY A 5.86% SWING AWAY FROM OBAMA AND TOWARDS ROMNEY. WE NEED TO SEE IF ROMNEY CAN MAKE UP THE REST OF THE GAP. ONLY 1.37% TO GO
21-Oct/+3.29%/-2.57%
20-Oct/+3.43%/-2.57%
19-Oct/+3.71%/-2.57%
18-Oct/+3.71%/-2.71%
17-Oct/+3.43%/-2.86%
16-Oct/+3.29%/-3.00%
15-Oct/+3.29%/-2.86%
14-Oct/+3.14%/-3.00%
13-Oct/+3.29%/-3.29%
12-Oct/+3.43%/-3.71%
11-Oct/+3.43%/-3.43%
10-Oct/+3.43%/-3.14%
09-Oct/+3.43%/-3.00%
08-Oct/+3.43%/-3.14%
07-Oct/+3.29%/-2.86%
06-Oct/+2.86%/-2.43%
05-Oct/+2.43%/-1.86%
04-Oct/+2.57%/-1.86%
03-Oct/+2.86%/-1.86%
02-Oct/+2.86%/-2.14%
01-Oct/+2.43%/-2.00%
30-Sep/+2.43%/-2.00%
29-Sep/+2.14%/-1.71%
28-Sep/+1.57%/-1.43%
27-Sep/+0.86%/-1.00%
26-Sep/+0.57%/-0.57%
25-Sep/+0.14%/+0.00%
24-Sep/+0.00%/+0.43%
23-Sep/-0.14%/+0.57%
22-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
21-Sep/-0.29%/+1.00%
20-Sep/-0.14%/+0.86%
19-Sep/-0.14%/+0.71%
18-Sep/-0.29%/+0.86%
17-Sep/-0.43%/+1.00%
16-Sep/-0.57%/+1.14%
15-Sep/-0.71%/+1.14%
14-Sep/-0.86%/+1.00%
13-Sep/-1.00%/+0.71%
12-Sep/-0.57%/-0.00%
11-Sep/+0.00%/-0.29%
10-Sep/+0.71%/-0.86%
09-Sep/+1.57%/-1.71%
08-Sep/+2.29%/-2.86%
07-Sep/+2.86%/-3.43%
06-Sep/+3.14%/-3.57%
05-Sep/+3.00%/-3.14%
04-Sep/+2.71%/-3.14%
03-Sep/+2.00%/-2.57%
02-Sep/+1.00%/-1.57%
01-Sep/+0.43%/-0.29%
31-Aug/+0.43%/+0.29%
30-Aug/+0.71%/+0.43%
29-Aug/+0.71%/+0.29%
28-Aug/+0.86%/+0.14%
27-Aug/+1.14%/-0.29%
26-Aug/+1.57%/-0.86%
25-Aug/+1.71%/-1.29%
24-Aug/+1.57%/-1.29%
23-Aug/+1.43%/-1.00%
22-Aug/+1.57%/-0.71%
21-Aug/+2.00%/-0.86%
20-Aug/+2.43%/-0.86%
August Average:
(no leaners) 45.55%/44.74%/+0.81%
(with leaners) 47.74%/46.10%/+1.65%
September Average:
(no leaners) 46.33%/46.10%/+0.23%
(with leaners) 47.83%/47.63%/+0.20%
October Average:
(no leaners) 47.29%/46.81%/+0.48%
(with leaners) 48.19%/47.86%/+0.33%
Continue to stay patient, my friends.
Rasmussen has ALWAYS been right.
SCOTT, PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE CHANGE YOUR PARTY ID BACK TO D +1 !!
Frank
#24, yeah I live in south eastern Mass on RI border…I am getting the same feeling. The Election Year Only Brain Dead Barry Voters look like they may carry her over the finish line.
Unemployment rate rose in PA?
Prior NBC was O +3.
MD, Team Romney is watching the collar counties. Knows WPA isn’t enough though feeling good about it.
I don’t think a push happens unless Delaware and Montgomery shift favor.
SEPA SEPA SEPA.
Today’s musical theme for the Obama campaign offers you a choice of two 70′s hits.
Your options are Paul Simon’s Slip Slidin Away, or Ned Zeppelin’s When the Levee Breaks.
I prefer the latter. If it keeps on rainin levee’s gonna break.
NBC…
Obama -2…
Romney +1…
Thanks HD.
The Brown race was always destined to be close. Baldwin is not a retard like the lady he ran against in the special. If we lose Brown, then McMahon or Mandel have to come through. We are safe (imo) in IN and NV. So we lose Maine which we all knew. That means a gross of 5 wins to get to 50 (assuming a Romney win) and 6 if Obama disgraces himself into victory.
So here is what I have in order of likelihood:
Nebraska
Dakota
Montana
Wisconsin (fingers crossed)
Conneticut
Ohio
Longer shots
FL
PA
MO
Fuucking Akin!!!!
NBC poll…
47-47
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/21/14593294-nbcwsj-poll-presidential-contest-now-tied?lite
Internals released later tonight.
Romney gains three points off their last poll which was D+6.
The trend is your friend.
Levees?
I blew them up in Katrina.
-GW Bush
Maybe Morris, Dick is right. Obumbler flatlined in the Midwest due to Gaffe Biden’s debate.
Can anyone get DRI on NBC poll?
And Indy data?
#38, MD, don’t forget VA. I put that ahead of Conn and Ohio
J/A for Ras, please.
MD you forgot VA
Rasmussen 3-day Tracking:
Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women
no leaners
49/89/13/46/54/44 Romney
46/09/82/44/41/51 Obama
with leaners
49/91/13/47/54/45 Romney
47/09/83/46/42/52 Obama
certain to vote
44/85/10/39/45/43 Romney
43/07/78/39/37/48 Obama
job approval
49/09/86/48/45/52 approve
51/91/14/52/55/48 disapprove
Frank
MD, first of all
Go Penn State
38-14
Second Chuck Todd said he doesn’t really think Obama is going to be able to block Romney momentum with this last debate, he says the south (VA, NC, and Fl) have gone to Romney
NV and NH lean Obama, and Colorado Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin are where this election will be decided.
Oh and on local channels I saw 10 ads running against Obama, and they were Romney ads!
Frank,
How close is Romney to the 50 threshold?
Wain – I have felt that way since he won the special. Common sense. Every factor favored him in the special. If Obama was more popular now, the R’s would have given up on that race already. As it stands, he has a 50/50 shot of prevailing. People forget he only won by 5 with very low D turnout.
#46, weird Indy samples from Ras again. Pretty much a tie.
46- looks like an odd indy sample there.
Sean – thank you!!!
I knew i was forgetting something. I put VA right above Wisconsin.
Now I feel a little better. I think Allen can win and I simply refuse to believe that Thompson can lose to Baldwin. Maybe I am letting that belief get in the way of logic.
Upchuck Todd, he had to be pushed by A/. Gray re: Marxist poll.
I hurt my back last night.
Rasmussen 7-day Swing-State:
Total/GOP/Dem/Indies/Men/Women
no leaners
49/91/10/50/52/46 Romney
46/06/87/40/44/47 Obama
with leaners
50/93/10/52/53/48 Romney
46/07/87/40/45/48 Obama
certain to vote
45/89/08/42/47/44 Romney
43/05/84/35/41/45 Obama
job approval
47/07/87/43/46/49 approve
52/92/12/57/54/51 disapprove
Frank
LOL @ Twitter post: Nate Silver’s poll birtherism continues.
A. Gray
NBC/WSJ: Watch age weightings. For most of the year, they had 16% ages 18-29. But, their last poll, they switched to 21% (ages 18-29).
30 I agree Tina. key number in BG poll is ‘unaided’ ballot, unaided is the most predictive measure of voter intent, will be interesting to R/R with suburban voters
32 we shall se.. Brown needs to get back to his roots which was the ‘regular’ guy, he use to live on sports radio , he can talk up the ‘I am in the center’ but this ‘I’m a lib too’ stuff doesn’t cut it
#49, it’s always been a worry, but Brown has remained very popular up here.
It will definitely come down to those voters who didn’t vote in the Special, which are likely overwhelmingly Dem.
He does have one more debate that will be on all local tv. He may need to nail it.
Wain – thank you as well. I placed VA even before reading your post.
So, we have a shot at the Senate but 55 would be a dream. There is no path to that unless the long shots come in and we retain Brown. Just give me a majority so we can write a fuucking budget!
NBC: Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.
So R was down 3 before the 2nd debate-this poll was entirely after it and R erased the 3 pts.
The electorate is settling with R.
He needs to do well on Monday.
I hurt my back last night.
Comment by Tina
Let the other members of the team carry the dead bodies, Tina. Learn to delegate.
59 – I just think it comes down to turnout. If the D’s aren’t motivated then he has a shot. If they are then I see a loss by 3 or so.
From an ideological perspective, he was, by far, the best we could do in Mass.
The full poll — which was conducted Oct. 17-20 among 1,000 registered voters and 816 likely voters — will be released at 6:30 pm ET tonight.
63 – LOL
You beat me to that one.
Tina – you are the Marksman (or Markswoman whatever). Let the other members handle clean up. Your job is to take the target out and then go have 2 glasses of wine to relax.
John says:
October 21, 2012 at 9:15 am
#Frank,
How close is Romney to the 50 threshold?”
John,
It depends upon party ID. See below:
D +3 49.4%/47.1%
D +2 49.7%/46.7%
D +1 50.2%/46.4%
R +0 50.5%/46.0%
R +1 50.9%/45.6%
R +2 51.2%/45.3%
Frank
NBC could only get a tie? LOL
64- If he loses, the thing to do is run for governor in Mass. in 2 years.
The Obama phone ad gave Romney a boost in Ohio. It’s the reason Romney has a lead there. The tea party should run the ad in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney would win those states too.
May have to get an epidural or injection.
On National Review’s twitter feed, the PlumLine hack is having a meltdown.
“NBC polls shows no Romney “surge, it’s tied now from down 3 pre debates, RVs, RVs!” etc.
My sense is R’s support and momentum is being understated. He should win barring an awful FP blunder during the debate, a true Oct surprise or a strong jobs report.
We get the 3Q GDP number this week and it should be under 2%.
Nate Silver still arguing w/ data?
HD
I actually don’t agree except for the Libya issue. Schieffer won’t interfere like Ms “in the main” (whatever the fucck that means) did. Obama is going to have to answer for Rice.
According to Morris, we need to be careful about Iran. He has “sources” (hey, he could be right for once) that tell him the Ayatollah is prepared to sign an agreement that they will stop enriching uranium. Of course, they will immediately break the agreement but it will give the msm a reason again to adore Dear Leader. So, when asked about Iran, keep any answer to 20 seconds and use it to pivot back to Libya.
Other than that, I don’t see this debate having much impact. I could be wrong naturally.
Plumpline jerk is an Ahol.e.
Plum who?
#64, agreed. If he can pull this one out, it will be huge. 6 more years of a “R” Senator in Commie haven.
Looks like the Obumbler did not “win” the 2nd debate.
Probably was a draw, but with Cow Beotch interfering and the subsequent after debate focus on Benghazi gate, Romney won it.
whoa, McGovern died? RIP
Greg Sargent- the left-wing counterpart to Jen Rubin at the Washington Post (though he generally reflects the leanings of most of their journalists) his column is “The Plum Line”– the NRO’s twitter feed usually shows him trolling with his constant talking points.
#81, RIP. But a sign that modern liberalism is dying?? Please tell me yes.
So the NBC polls are RV’s? That cannot be correct.
I just initiated a battle tweet to the Plump jerk.
I get the whole free speech thing but I dont understand why NRO would have a token lefty there, reminder: NRO gave us Kathleen Parker, remember her? that’s alright, most employers don;t either
They poll both. Plump line was pimping the registered voters. Says that there is no movement toward Romney.
85 excellent..he is a little girl
I thought he died 20 years ago. RIP. He was a fighter pilot as well. As for his 72 run, I think the radicals just took over and things got away from him. Yes, he was a liberal but what happened there was beyond the pale.
84- they give an LV and an RV breakdown- Sargent is ranting that Obama still leads among RVs, so it shows there was no Romney surge.
He’s been getting a bit more hysterical the past week or two.
Red poll from PPP.
Tee hee.
Waingro I despise leftists policies w/ all my heart. MOST leftists I end up despising as people too. McGovern was one of the few I liked personally.
Didn’t Parker pretend to play the role of a R on that awful Spitzer show that lasted for, what, 2 months?
The tea party should run the ad in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Romney would win those states too.
What could go wrong? An ad highlighting a screaming black woman who doesn’t want her Obamaphone taken away? In Philadelphia, that would be seen as a Pro-Obama ad. Obama might as well say, “I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message.”
86- he doesn’t post there, just appears on their twitter feed – similar to Larry Sabato or Jake Tapper appearing on it (though those two actually are observant)
I just can’t get into the Twitter thing. Author – why don’t you harass him a little bit? See if you can get him to lose his cool like Tommy.
RIP George McGovern: a conscientious liberal who served his country. A far better breed of opposition than the public-union/trial-lawyer sycophants that make up the democratic party today.
I believe Scott Brown will hold and VA and OH will fall our way. I hate to say this but MO may be dragged in as we’ll as FL if wave gets larger
@93 yeah it was on CNN. Last I heard she still claims to be a Republican while rushing off to news shows to bash them every time she can. In some ways she reminds me of my dope brother.
1) McG’s death saddens me. Kind of a momento mori for those of us who remember ’72 as if it were yesterday.
2) pitch
Because of your assistance on the CEA thing, I treat you with the same level of respect I would extend to Tony La Russa. Now… you really should let go of “Akin could still win,” OK? If that’s part of your “GOP will win Senate” projection, re-calculate it.
3) I don’t like Allen’s chances in VA much. His second mistake was that he made the first mistake. That’s life– it’s unfair.
3) Mandel is probably not close enough to seriously threaten Brown (OH), from all polls taken together.
4) In MA, all the caveats about “incumbents polling under 50%” apply toS. Brown. At Sean’s suggestion, I recently contributed to him, but… I’m not optimistic.
5) Damn me if Chuck Todd isn’t making sense lately!
I was watching the Big Ten Network last night and did see a Romney ad. Not a 3rd party but an actual “I am Mitt Romney and I approve this message” ad.
I am not sure though if that was for the BTN as a whole or just our local feed.
Gallup guy doing a very good job defending his poll with Chris Wallace.
I don’t even know how to follow twitter and I have no interest in learning.
MD – Where are my doughnuts? You can’t go to an orchard and not get cider doughnuts.
Tommy lost his cool on me for stating a fact. I never once insulted him or used smark. Tommy boy has to be the #1 hothead on twitter.
I asked if the Plump Jerk was melting down this AM.
Sabato
Better news for Romney than Obama. 3rd debate MAY change things but IF electorate looks like this, R has edge in pop vote.
I have no use for Parker or Noonan.
Useful idiots for the left.
Also, Bill Buckley’s son makes me gag.
Plump jerk tweeted that VA is tied.
I told him yeah righgt.
http://www.nationalreview.com/tweet
Here’s what it is- it’s a compilation of various twitter feeds- helpful for following news or debates- from a number of politicos- also has Iowahawk on there, who might be the funniest SOB alive.
Wow, MNW. Fairly pessimistic. Not saying you are wrong but the trend is going the other way at the moment. I am feeling better about Allen and Thompson. Not feeling great about Brown. Akin? I see no chance. None. As+hole.
#67 – thanks Frank.
Your work is appreciated.
@103 leave twitter to us, it’s how we get the polls here quickly
Bbbbbbut D +8!
105- saw that, that was awesome.
@110 I feel better about Connecticut
Rasmussen:
VA Senate today
Frank
VA is tied and McGovern crushed Nixon in 72. Reagan lost a heart-breaker in 84 and President Gore’s 2 terms might have accomplished the most stunning achievements of any POTUS in history.
Hey, while we are living in a fantasy world we might as well go all the way.
NBC is D +3
CT will be close but Murphy should win unless there is a huge wave.
Frank
I saw a Romney ad in northern Michigan yesterday.
C. Todd
In this same poll at this same point in time in 2004, we hadl Bush-Kerry tied at 48%.
MD, RAS last week did their Mo sample showing Romney up 11 and Akin down 8.
Romney was waaaay up with men and down 4 with women. Akin with women? Down 26. Same sample.
I told everyone this guy was bad news. Pissed away this seat just like we did with Colorado last cycle. The stupid party….
Did Frank Newport (Gallup Guy) say what his poll numbers are for today?
Frank
Buckley’s son is a disgrace
The last fews days the Obama campaign has talked about ‘binders full of women’, Romnesia, and Big Bird.
The Romney campaign comes out with the perfect slam…”Obama has no second term agenda”.
That might help explain why Romney has suddenly gotten a ‘second bump’ in the last few days.
I thought PPP would never show a red poll in a battleground state? Does this mean FL is officially a red state.
Tee hee.
I hope the Obama campaign continues to be moronic and tries to have Obama try to weasel his way into another debate “win” with moderator help.
Romney will focus on what matters which is to make himself look presidential as possible and draw a sharp contrast between himself and Obama. Romney by 5 and hopefully dragging some senate republicans in with him.
PPP has now shown Mitt leads in IA, NH, NC, & FL
All the final debate will do is propel Romney to an even higher level. Obama is toast. Its over.
Giants (SF) win today.
Right now Oregon is the best team in college football.
Romney 350+
124- what has he done now?
I see VA by 3 or 4 with Ras and I think Allen will cross the finish line by 2 or so.
Not a lock on Allen but I feel better about it.
I watched the first debate last night. Romney is really smart and articulate. I hope this guy doesn’t “morph” into G.W. Bush after he’s elected.
talk out there that Sandra Fluke’s campaign appearances for O’s campaign has attracted some of the smallest crowds. I think there’s a video out there of only TEN PEOPLE attending a rally w/ her.
Ras
Washington Senate
Cantwell 52
Baumgartner 37
“Right now Oregon is the best team in college football.”
this dude lives in a Fantasy World even when it comes to Sports
The Fluke thing is hurting Obama. I even know a couple of pro-choice women who don’t agree that things should be “free”. The one had a good point. It is your “choice” to have sex. If you choose that you should pay for the contraception.
10 people for s. fluke last night in reno.
Off for a run.
MD
McGovern was a B-17 pilot. (That’s decidedly not a fighter). That McG survived the war is close to a miracle– certainly like filling an inside straight.
Tom Landry, another bomber pilot, liked to joke that: “We always had round-trip fighter escort. Unfortunately 75% of it was provided by the Luftwaffe.”
phoenix
If the “DanMcLaughlin baseball crank” link you provided is the same McLaughlin who is/was a Cards’ broadcaster, he’s even stranger than I thought. He doesn’t have enough problems? He’s branching out into politics now?
MD I rarely have lib friends, but one who I know from High School and claims she’s reluctantly voting for O for party loyalty’s sake has been pissed off as Hell about the whole Fluke thing. I think that one blew up on their face.
Arthur…..you live in fantasyland when it comes to looking at this election. Told you 3 wks ago where it was headed. You thought i was delusional. Just continue crunching your numbers and have fun with them. Just watch and learn.
Romney 350+
@139 mnw – I think this McLaughlin is a NY lawyer, Mets fan, and RedState contributor. I *think*.
I wish someone would attend a Fluke rally and throw pig blood all over her… ‘Carrie’ her lame arse
Could this get any closer? Watch out, though, it is going to shift decisively toward Romney in the next 10 days.
@142 your correct.
I gotta go grab some stuff at the store. BRB.
They’ve jumped the shark with Big Bird ads and “binders” garbage…
People are waking up to the fact he’s such an unserious president without any second term agenda or vision for the country..,
It’s embarrassing that this is a sitting US president…
Would expect this in France…
NFL game of the week…
Baltimore @ Houston (10 am)
Take Houston over Baltimore minus Ray Lewis whom is out for the season.
139- Yeah, Jimmy Stewart was another one- flew B-24s (and later commanded a squadron) in 1943-44. Flew more missions than he had to and somehow made it through without getting shot down. I always liked his Westerns, he was convincingly tough- because you knew he’d been through alot. He never acted in war movies after the war, just couldn’t do it. HUGE Republican.
Iowahawk on Sandra Fluke—
“iowahawkblog She shot her fame in Reno, just to watch it diiiiiie http://t.co/xM0EN8gf
Many commentators said this.
The Fire Wall is Ohio and the Fire wall is on fire!
Oh oh…
And Romney is finally starting to connect with that last bit of white voters, now Romney’s long march may finally be over!
Montogmery County – Nowhere near the enthusiasm of 2008 once you get away from the municipalities butting up to the city. Some Romney signs going up over the last week. Live on the frige of the Battleground between the two. Flipping back and forth between R and D at the local level. Locally 50/50 split. Hopefully the last minute Schwartz “take away abortion rights” blitz on Obama’s behalf at the end of this will not push the “moms” back toward O.
Bucks County – More Romney sign coverage than in Montco. Minimal number of O signs.
Keep the Obamahpone ad out of this area.
I want to see good news for Ohio or Nevada NOW! Of we don’t soon…
W. PA
A B-24 was even more likely to be a death sentence than a B-17.
McG WAS shot down– had to make a crash landing on an island in Yugoslavia (don’t know what nation has that island now).
It’s a close call whether a bomber crewman’s wife OR a sub crewman’s wife was more likely to get the $10000 & a medal in the mail.
Lol…Nick Romney… http://twitchy.com/2012/10/20/oh-dear-twitter-users-slam-nick-romney/
153- Right, one of my great uncles was shot down over Germany while on a bomber crew- managed to bail-out and survived in a German POW camp. The family still got, “the telegram” until the Red cross verified he was alive.
Nevada here we come to save you!
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/dems-hold-smaller-nevada-edge-than-139076.html
Donate to election projection!
The Cowboys will lose today and their season will be over!
Its not a firewall. Its a maginot line.
Bucks County will likely go R
@158 yes they will lose to my panthers!
NBC national Tie
NBC Iowa-Obama+8
And they wonder why they get questioned
#162 I love how Chuck Todd initially tried to defend both.
-Polaris
I think Sandra Fluke is cute, just wish she wasn’t a liberal. She reminds me of the girl next door that my husband and I used to have 3somes with
164 is not Tina.
New PA Poll / NBC Marist LV 10/18 10/19
Romney 49
Obama 47
OMG the flood gates are open now…
164 – Seriously? Can we shut that mf-er down? Straling handles is wrong. Stealing handles to be vulgar is worse. If you want to be crude, man u and type your name.
Fu–k off, Rockefeller Troll (Tina).
166 is fake.
God KNOWS I don’t want to be accused of sexism, but… does Fluke really need a lot of birth control?
Is that PA poll for real?
That Marist PA poll must be a hoax. If true it is no laughing matter.
That ain’t me gang. Rube Rock needs to quit stealing handles.
It’s fake.
Looking forward today hopefully Gallup holds at Romney+6, but I have a feeling they will come down to a five point lead at sometime. TIPP(ughhh) can’t get to a four point lead can they? Battleground tomorrow morning, and PPP has a MO poll coming out.
PA…OH….MI….WI……the landslide is on its way. Next wknd Mitt will be up 7-8 pts.
It cascades from here. Watch the undecided hop on the bandwagon.
Romney 350+
Wasn’t me…
Not that into Fluke…
Biel on the other hand…
170. You know what they say, everybody looks good after 2 AM.
or
Beer:
Getting ugly people laid for 2000 years.
Finally, a purple poll, which is almost blue!!!
Rocky come on out and face us as the troll you truly are!
Bet the PA poll is probably close. There is no D enthusiasm around here.
Just have to wait and see what the last minute hate campaign brings…
Getting the feeling there is a lot of “fool me once shame on you…” going on around here.
ORCA!!!!!!
Fluke…
2 before 10…
10 before 2…
I told u yesterday PA looks good. Casey beware as well. Smith is underrated but has the heart of a lion
I think Rocky Rep and Tom Gordon are the same. They both hate women. They both refer to sex with children. They both hate me (I am proud of that). Discuss.
Obama’s vote share totals recently:
Gravis Marketing 44
Gallup 45
Reuters/Ipsos 46
UPI 46
NBC/WSJ 47
Rasmussen 47
YouGov 47
Hartford Courant 48
PPP 48
An incumbent sixteen days out, spending hundreds of millions of dollars, and giving the best debate of his life according to some, and then stuck at these numbers is bad. Real bad.
If he hasnt realized it by now, obama will soon accept the fact that he will lose. How will he respond? Will he fight and claw to the bitter end? Will he basically ‘give up’….which will be easy to decipher by listening to his tone and watching his body language. He does not care about the democrat party. Only himself. He has never really ‘lost’ an election and been rebuked by the electorate. It will be interesting to watch. I expect him to ‘give up’. He may be ignorant, but i dont think he is stupid.
I expect his temper to lash out very soon. He is being rejected. Hes helpless to prevent the outcome. Its over.
Romney 350+
So, Obama’s best number in a national poll is PPP at D+6 with Tommy’s thumb on the scale.
#166 *must* be fake. Marist doesn’t even show NC going for Romney.
My take is that it is a 4-5 point Romney lead nationally right now, probably 51-46. I think Ras has it spot on and Frank’s party ID breakdown shows that with a push electorate, Ras is in fact very close to Gallup’s likely voter polling. I believe Ohio is probably a 4 to 5 point Romney lead as well, mirroring the national polling. The reason why we don’t see Romney up this margin in Ohio is polls showing that the turnout electorate in Ohio is D+6-9 which is absolutely crazy. If a polling company did an Ohio poll with say a D+1 weight which is certainly realistic, that would show Romney up by the margin we see in the national polling. The recent Pennsylvania polling confirms the national polling as well. Probably the most tell tale data point is Romney being up double digits in the swing state polling.
azguy,
He is already talking with a tone of nervous sarcasm at all of his campaign rallies. I expect him to be a very ugly loser.
I called him Mr 46 a year ago. That is where he will end
@188 I hate to agree, but your right. And they only showed VA up because like Quinnipiac they “had to”
Speaking of Quinnipiac we should be seeing polls from them and purple polling soon.
Hell, the way the floodgates are opening, Michael might be right…POLL OREGON!!!!
Romney 350+
Just plugged in a 5 point Romney lead into Neil Steven’s Swingometer and here are the results.
Romney 316 Obama 222
Romney flips NC, IN, FL, VA, IA, OH, NH, CO, PA, and MN.
Obama holds WI and NV.
Unbeliveable and some eerily scary projection. That thing absolutely mirrors what we have seen lately with statewide developments. Biden making visits to and Obama’s pollster calling Minnesota a swing-state, the great news out of Pennsylvania, Obama trying to set up a firewall of OH, NH, NV, and Iowa.
Five point victory would be wonderful – just don’t see it as possible.
I follow two twitter feeds on line without actually being on twitter myself: the NRO one and the Real Clear Politics one. I have learned to skip over ALL Greg Sargent Tweets. He is one super Dem partisan, the absolutely worst on twitter of them all. If some tiny blip up for Obama, he tweets it for 10 hours over and over again, same for anything negative on Romney. He is a creep of the highest degree.
Oh, I forgot. That model also flips ME-2 to Romney as well.
#195 — Phil, by the latest polling out of Rasmussen and Gallup, it looks very possible with a D+1 or a push electorate. What small amount of remaining undecideds will go heavily in Romney’s favor as well.
We probably will see some slippage in gallup. +6 is unusual.
“Obama trying to set up a firewall of OH, NH, NV, and Iowa.” That firewall is pretty much burned down.
5% is possible
Capt Communisms support could roll off the table over the last weekend
#196 — You might want to tune into his Twitter feed as well as MSNBC to see some high quality entertainment if the trends hold to Election Day.
Well, I agree that an even party ID could push it to 3 or 4 no doubt.
I’d feel better about that if RAS would make the jump. He doesn’t seem to want to move from D+3. Would love to know what is in his head about the party ID number.
The REAL entertainment would be election night on MSNBC.
I hear that ten people actually showed up at Sandra Fluke’s Reno rally for Obama. Nine were there trying to pick her up and the tenth was selling condoms.
NT
This really does look like 1980
An incompetent incumbent jackass Communist fool with an atrocious economy being desperately propped up by a dishonest press corps
Only to Hindenburg into the ground at the very end…
How can an incumbent win who has never polled above 50% in a national poll even with monumental poll fraud ongoing…?
#166 Where in the hell is the link for Romney now leading in Pennsylvania by 2 – Marist Poll???
I searched and searched. Do not post poll numbers here unless you HAVE A LINK! My gosh. That’s so basic.
So tomorrow is debate #3. First debate 67 million. Second debate 65 million. I think this will get about 55 million. NFL and potentially a game 7 in the NLCS will dip the numbers along with people getting tired of the debates. Some Obama supporters think this is thier best shot to change the momentum. The reality is the subject matter may bore people for large portions of the debate. Romney needs to just stay away from a gaffe and look presidential. After that it is down to the home stretch. There may be an October Surprise(like the nag coming out with a 1983 story) but if it was anything major it would have been done already due to early voting(like the 47% tape)
If Obama concludes he will lose and decides to pull a Dole and campaign in states to help Dems in close races, where would he go? MA is one I would assume.
#211 BayernFan
Obama is not a partisan Democrat. He used the Democrat Party as the conduit for his personal ambitions. When Obama concludes that he will lose, he will attempt to max out his pop vote total and ignore down ballot Dems.. I don’t seem him being much of Democrat Party team player as an ex-President either.
#212 Obama’s natural home is with the socialist party actually.
#208 How can an incumbent win who has never polled above 50% in a national poll even with monumental poll fraud ongoing…?
He is the Obama-messiah. From his hands all miracles flow. –MSM
-Polaris