PPP Now Claims Obama Leads in IA By 1%
As promised Public Policy Polling released a new poll for the state of Iowa they did with money from Health Care for America Now.
PRESIDNET – IOWA (PPP/HCAN)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
On Friday, the poll PPP released had a partisan breakdown of 38% Republican versus 34% Democratic and was done October 17-19. Tonight, their poll has a completely different partisan breakdown of 41% Democratic versus 34% Republican and was done October 18-19, almost an identical time period. Two polls released for the same state over essentially the same time period by the same polling organization giving two completely partisan breakdowns. Am I missing something here? Frankly, if I were Health Care for America Now, I would want to know why PPP is giving different results depending on who is paying for it….
First
Segundo
If one were to judge this election based solely on numbers and data and the economy and presidential history, Mitt Romney should win in a landslide. If he loses, it will reflect more on him as a failed candidate, than on Obama as a president.
Wait- so they went from a breakdown of R + 4 to D + 7 and it only netted Obama a one point lead? Wow. Romney must have had a good night there in the poll.
Jason you shouldn’t eat roadkill and sleep with your cousin.
Or vice-versa.
Romney fan must be related to Robbie.
A D+7 only nets a 1 point lead for BO? He must be down in a realistic party weighting poll.
Jets threw the game away.
Wow. The Jets really know how to lose in dramatic fashion.
Only two things to know
D plys 7
Females 54 percent
Not happening
Likely O getting killed with indies
#5…well said!
PPP tells Health Care for America Now: haha you morons, you shouldn’t have paid for this, you should’ve just looked at what I posted yesterday.
The real early vote is 48-34
Factor it all in and bye bye IA
Obama-Rockefeller Troll is calling bitter “bitegash”.
Could that be lamer?
Is this actually happening? Judging by those numbers- on an accurate poll breakdown- Romney would lead solidly in Iowa. Is this actually happening?
3.If one were to judge this election based solely on numbers and data and the economy and presidential history, Mitt Romney should win in a landslide. If he loses, it will reflect more on him as a failed candidate, than on Obama as a president.
==================================
Not really. It just shows that Americans are so stupid that they’ll wait until we go bankrupt before they wake up.
If these organizations want to pay me to release bogus polls I bet I could do a better job.
I am thinking that the increasing snark and derision by BO toward MR is a pretty good indicator of what they are seeing in their internal polling. Candidates with a lead don’t act that way.
WPA, as I said yesterday this election is “Weekend at Bernie’s”.
Iowa 2008: 34D 33R 33I
Gallup Party ID poll for IA (with leaners)
2008: D+18
2010: D+5
2011: D+4
2012: D+2
D+7 in IA in 2012 = fantasyland.
Romney will be up 7-8 by next wknd. You can put the hay in the barn. Its over.
Romney 350+
If Romney is really leading nationally by 7% (which a rock solid Iowa lead would imply) what would a good early sigh of this be on election night?
Oakland won in OT
23-26
Against Jacksonville
Not sure if this was noted in another thread, but the Columbus Dispatch endorsed MR today. More important, they wrote a scathing review of the O administration and its many failures. I don’t think that will influence too many voter, though…
I’m still behind enemy lines. I asked if they would at least concede that Fla is in the bank for Romney. One said it was uphill the rest said no Obama will still win.
I’m not getting much traction on Iran. One guy says if Iran will negotiate we should negotiate. Liberals never understand that the problem with Coexist sign is the C wants to kill the X and the T.
Sanchez is without a doubt one of the worst 5 quarterbacks in the league…worst Jet QB since…well before I was born.
What is the site that you are going to, PW I think it is called?
Last question. Was the actual voter turnout in ’08 D+1.. or are the Gallup numbers the correct breakdown. Regardless, a D+7 electorate in Iowa is absolutely absurd. How can he justify an 11 point swing in just three days?
Columbus Dispatch and Pittsburgh Tribune Review both endorsed Romney and said: we told you idiots what you would get for electing Obama.
26. USC quarterbacks have extreme problems transitioning to the NFL.
Romney 350+
Listened to the Mclaughlin Group on the internet. At the end of the session of five people, three… Mort Z, Mc, and Pat B, said Romney would win the election.
Was the actual voter turnout in ’08 D+1.. or are the Gallup numbers the correct breakdown.
===================================
Gallup numbers are RVs and push indies to pick either R or D. They find very few true independents.
Romney/Ryan EV and popular vote landslide coming Nov 6th!
Will be historical night. MSNBC’s ratings will be through the roof as America tunes in to see Mathews and Madow seize on national television.
Dom Perignon on ice!
Reserve your inauguration tickets now through your congressperson.
Drudge has a funny headline up about the next debate. As for the next debate, Romney just needs to look credible on foreign policy and not make a gaffe. If that happens the debate will be forgotten about in a couple of days. I think tomorrow that a lot les people will tune in, and for the people that do tune in the subject matter may bore a lot of people. And then it is down to the home stretch.
27- and they were right.
NH Union Leader also predictably brutal on O .
http://www.unionleader.com/article/20121021/OPINION01/710219900
31. Im with you. Its been over for weeks. Dont forget to enjoy a couple fine celebration cigars at around 9PM (AZ Time) when Mitt is projected to be the winner.
Romney 350+
Has NBC released the internals for their poll yet?
Newspapers switching from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012:
Houston Chronicle
Orlando Sentinel
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
The Tennessean (Nashville, TN)
Reno Gazette-Journal
The Columbian (Vancouver, WA)
Daily Tribune (Royal Oak, MI)
Newspapers switching from McCain 2008 to Obama 2012:
Lincoln (NE) Journal Star
San Francisco Examiner
Winston-Salem Journal
San Antonio Express-News
How do pollsters determine party affiliation? Romney is up with independents in virtually every poll which certainly suggests a Romney victory….but what if these independents are really Rs who now identify as Tea Party’ers? If so, wouldn’t re-weighting these polls artificially inflate our numbers?
If party ID is determined by past voting patterns, then there is no problem.
Nevermind, I caught it.
D+6
Sanchez is without a doubt one of the worst 5 quarterbacks in the league…worst Jet QB since…well before I was born.
Well that’s progress. We had many posters saying last year that dirty sanchez was better than Cutler. One down. When we get people to acknowledge that Vick is worse than Cutler we’ll really be rolling.
29 – they usually wait for the last show prior to the election…
D+7. Have to love it! They do another poll at the same time with a wildly different party ID.
Jensen = fraud
41- But judging from the internals- Romney gained significantly between the two. Beyond madness.
MD- have you allowed more optimism to seep in yet?
Question: “How much is 2 + 2?”
Jensen: “How much do you want it to be?”
Somebody tweeted on PPP. But what about Big Bird? How is he polling in Iowa?
Giants 2 Cards 0. 2nd inning.
Romney 350+
#37: best assessment for party ID: Gallup and RAS.
Behind Closed Doors, Romney at Peace as Vote Nears
By Scott Conroy
“I’ve never seen a Republican candidate — even an incumbent, other than Reagan — getting the crowds that Mitt’s getting today,” Kaufman said. “We were in Ohio last weekend and literally, over three days, every crowd was 8-, 9-, 10,000 people. It pumps you up, you know.”
It is a political cliché that every campaign is a reflection of the candidate, but the sense of calm optimism is indeed seen in those who surround Romney. The members of his inner circle acknowledge that the race is essentially a tossup according to the polls, but each of them is buoyed by their faith in Romney’s ability to pull it out in the end.
More:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/18/behind_closed_doors_romney_at_peace_as_vote_nears__115825.html
Giants 5 Cards 0.
Romney 350+
As of right now, Mitt is Va the McCain states, NC, IN, FL, VA, IA, NH and CO which gives him 267. He only needs Ohio or WI or NV to win. Come on OH.
Thanks Mike Huckabee. Claire up 46/40 in PPP poll of MO Senate.
The Caucus
A Football Draw for Romney’s Staff and the Press
Mr. Romney, wearing black shorts, a black Adidas T-shirt and gray sneakers, walked down to the beach after spending the morning at church, and kicked off the game with a coin toss. (The press won that part, with a call of “tails,” prompting Mr. Romney to quip, “That’s the last call you guys are getting.”)
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/a-football-draw-for-romneys-staff-and-the-press/
3
What an absolutely idiotic statement!
Claire is done,
She can’t even break 50%.
Romney’s coat tails will pull Akin across the finish line to victory much to the dismay of many here at HHR.
I don’t believe this poll for a minute. Romney is going to win Iowa by 5%. Mark my words.
IA is nice to get, but I really want Mitt to get NH, which would mean also getting VA and OH, the race would be over early as those states all close the polls by 7:30.
IA doesn’t close till 10pm
No worries, Mitt has both IA and NH locked up!
Add – Vick is not a good QB this season because of the turnovers. Cutler is a p*ssy. Both can be true at the same time.
As is VA and OH!
” He only needs Ohio or WI or NV to win. Come on OH.” Ohio is already in the GOP column. In fact it might be as safe as CO or even VA.
“No worries, Mitt has both IA and NH locked up!” Yes GOP internal polling has Mr. Romney up in NH, but Mr. Obama still have a very very slight lead in Iowa.
Ohio Joe, how do you know about these internal polls?
Dick Morris claims he say a new poll showing Mitt down only 1 in Michigan.
I dont see us w/ OH yet, but the momentum is on our side. IN, NC, FL, & VA are ours. NH, PA, OH, WI, IA, CO, & NV are w/ in the MOE but O leads there per my model. Mitt is holding on to a small national lead.
as for the Senate, I think its very possible Mitt wins the Presidency but we end up coming up just short of the Senate
#63 — I bet it’s Mitchell
I am doubting PPP actually conducts surveys for many of their polls. Or maybe they do very small sample sizes and then adjust to their desired result.
In the House, we should lose 5 seats at worst. For the Governors, we will gain NC, NH, and MT. Prob come up short in WA.
I get a kick out of the Manchester Union-Leader finally endorsing Romney (not that it’s a surprise) after hating on him through two primary cycles.
And Bitter, Jay Cutler could kick your ass, one diabetic to another.
Mitchell has shut up all of a sudden. We need a new poll there. They are very good at nailing the final result in MI.
“Ohio Joe, how do you know about these internal polls?” I keep in contact with my County GOP chairman.
If young Michael or anyone else is looking for a liberal blog to go into and create havoc, mess with heads, and not not run any risk of being banned or deleted, I would do a Google search for PoliicalDog101 and then go over there.
The crowd there is pretty sparse, as compared to PW and other places, but the guy who runs it, is absolutely convinced without a shadow of a doubt that Obama cannot lose and is in fine shape for a big victory. Some others there insist the only anti-Obama voters in the country are all motivated by racial hatred. It’s a really bizarre, but small group, so if anyone wants to mess with them, it might be fun for you.
When did anyone say that Sanchez was a better QB than Cutler? I would love to see the Chi-ster find that comment. There is no person here who would make such a statement.
Iowa is +1R by registration now. In 2008 it was +4D by registration.
Of R tends to score a bit better, per 2008 exit polls, in party ID in Iowa.
This poll shows how much trouble and I mean trouble the President is in. Ouchy poll.
NBC is tied and yup its +6D sample in their national poll.
+6D and tied.
Wow
Which is the next state for Suffolk to leave?
Sanchez will not improve until he drops the celebrity ho’s and concentrates on the X’s and the O’s.
IP could make that into a poem.
So, tomorrow night, (after many people get done watching The Voice or Dancing With the Stars), we are likely to have competition between Game 7 of the NLCS, Monday Night Football (with ESPN billing it as a football debate between “Michigan’s Own” and the “Pride of Chicago”), and the third and final Presidential debate.
Poop.
Looks like a game seven for the NLCS tomorrow night the same time as the debate.
For the first time in my voting life, I can say, “I love Mitt Romney.” I know, as our 45th President he will make our country proud again. This man is soooo special, so honorable, so decent, so brilliant, so generous. I will pray for him every day, and I must say, I could not do that for ooo. Lord, I thank you that you have had mercy on us and given us Mitt Romney to be our next President. We have been blessed.
Thank you, Ohio. I think many of us would give a day’s pay to see what the internals look like in these campaigns , assuming they get much better results since they probably pay more to get a better sampling . Based on your conversations with your county GOP people, you still feel good about Romney’s chances
Last year, a bunch of people on here were saying that Cutler was among the worst QBs in the NFL.
People can say what they want, but the Bears are 9-1 in his last 10 starts.
“as our 45th President he will make our country proud again”
let’s get to 270 1st
Game 7 of the NLCS (go Giants I guess) is definitely going to be a distant third on my priority list. This will be the first time in several years, I will not be watching a Bears game live.
Hoping Chicago goes 1-1 on the night.
73 – battleground.com is reporting the bias is D+3 for lv’s for the NBC poll as from a tweet from Chuck Todd…
“Based on your conversations with your county GOP people, you still feel good about Romney’s chances” Yes, we are hanging on to a 4 point lead and Mr. Mandel has caught up to Mr. Brown.
@adrian_gray
Been watching early voting in IA, OH & others pretty closely. I feel good about most. One place I am not: Clark County, NV.
Cutler can be one of the worst, and still better than Sanchez.
The Bears are 9-1 in Forte’s last 10 starts…
” Forte keeps Cutler from becoming the Cutler of old where he slings the football into triple coverage. Forte gives Cutler an outlet, and if you combine Forte with that potentially explosive receiving group and a calmer Cutler you have the makings of an offense that could be one of the most dangerous in football. But only if Forte is there. ”
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/storylist/17506081/6/2012-nfl-season-preview/chicago-bears
81….It’s already well over 300EV for Mitt. Some of us can just see the big picture better than others. Much like how some hitters can read the stitches on a fastball better than others. Understand the psychology of the electorate and you to can see the landslide on its way.
Romney 350+
Once again thank you, Ohio for your insight into what probably will beTHE most critical state election night Ohio!!!
@88 Mitt will be lucky to hit 300. no landslide. no riots. bank on it.
Well, they have have won a couple games this season already without Forte. He’s a good RB though, and football is a team sport.
Bottom line is that Cutler is easily the most talented Quarterback the Chicago Bears have had in decades.
For-TAY!
For-TAY!
For-TAY!
Art still not on thaw LANDSLIDE train!
UNBELIEVABLE!
This man really tells it like it is:
Why Obama Is DONE Like Burnt Toast
http://www.galganov.com/editorials.asp?id=1497
Mr. Cheap Wine,
Just get 270 outside the margin of fraud, that will be enough for I!
When does the invasion start?
as long as Mitt hits 270 i’m happy. That’s not enough for some folks. They want a landslide thats not coming.
Walt that crap happened hours ago
MO
PPP
Romney 52
Obama 46
Senate
Sky queen 46
Akin 40
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/mccaskill-continues-to-lead-by-6.html
C
Mitt will win 340 + and may exceed 380!
DALLAS MORNING NEWS — always a big hitter in the state — endorsed Romney last week BIG TIME.
PS: R.I.P. – Big Tex burned to cinders, but will rise from the ashes and be BIGGER and BADDER than before!
w/ the new PPP numbers in, if my model is right – MO goes Mitt 7-9 pts, McCaskill wins by 7-9 pts
” and may exceed 380!”
get help, even azguy backed away from that. btw thanks for FINALLY giving a number.
OH, crap!
Obammer got this election in the bag now.
It’s OVAH!!!
***********
DRUDGE HEADLINE:
“Chavez, Castro, Putin endorse Obama…”
While I am feeling increasingly confident in MR’s prospects, I am far from ready to think in terms of anything close to a landslide. I would be happy with a 271 to 267 EV win; I would be thrilled with a 320ish win for R.
Come on, Akin! Hopefully enough over-emotional women simply vote Romney, let the men of Missouri drag you over the finish line!
Author,
Yeah, I know the invasion started and was over long ago.
I missed it due to unforseen circumstances.
“Why Obama Is DONE Like Burnt Toast”
TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAST!!
GRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!
267 we lose?
I don’t want a landslide, but it’s coming anyway and it’s snowballing in a big way!
Accept it Art!
mtvphil has more sense then the other 2′s magic numbers. if everything, and I mean everything, goes Mitt’s way late then AT BEST he gets 317-320ish
R Bergundy……..Agreed. It is clear what the night of 6 nov 2012 is going to bring. Some guys just cant see the forest through the trees.
Romney 350+
Author, please explain to me what your “model” is, and don’t just say “Kate Upton.” Thanks.
I am sticking with the Colorado professor’s prediction (330), minus their largest differential they ever had (28) (while still being correct about the winner). That would put us at 302, but after looking at the Electoral College map, I’ll go one less and predict 301!
NYCmike down with 301! Put it in the books!
@114 Corey I avg the last 2 weeks of LV polling in a state. (it was 1 month but at this stage of the campaign its better to do 2-weeks). I take out online polls and polls done for partisan groups. I also take out any “internals” that are released. Obv. w/ some polling counting on an 08 electorate I am aware I could get some states wrong. Im living and dying by the model. If im wrong, so be it. Everyone here should know by now I am hoping for a Mitt win.
NYC, I think 301 could be possible but I think it will be hard.
If Mitt gets anything like a 330 Electoral vote win, the Republicans will take over the Senate by 3 or 4. IF that happens, Ron Johnson better replace McConnell, and Boehner should be replaced as well.
NYCMike,
I see you are channeling you inner WTF Polling prediction of WEEKS ago that called the ECV at:
301 Romney
237 Obammer
Climb on board!
Rove’s map tomorrow should have a lot more yellow in it. His and my model are almost exactly the same.
Author,
Nothing is in the bag, it is only Oct 21st. Election day is still 16 days away. PEDAL TO THE MEDAL!
Walt,
If that is correct about WTF polling, then I have to admit, great minds think alike!
112. Art is making progress!
We win Iowa comfortably. This thing will not be close. I don’t know if we get 350 EVs, I’ll be fine with 310.
Go Giants, and goodnight.
PEDAL TO THE MEDAL!
PPP (D)
OHIO
Oct 21, 1980
Carter 48
Reagan 41
@126 heh
DW you forgot the cop-out at the end:
“Reagan still has room to grow”
You gotta think Steve Wynn has some pull with the Clark county electorate. He has been virulantly anti Obama.
it will reflect more on him as a failed candidate, than on Obama as a president.
Comment by Romney Fan — October 21, 2012 @ 7:49 pm
It will reflect more on an unconscious electorate
128 – yeah, and the after-excuse, was that all the undecideds unexpectedly went to Reagan.
Hey boys, stop looking at the foosball and stare into my beautiful BLUE eyes!
Tee hee
Back from football. I would fisk the latest piece of fecal matter from PPP, but it looks like it’s already been done. D+7 in Iowa, really? 54% Female vote really? And you STILL only get an Obama+1 lead?
The early voting tells the tale last I checked. The Dems aren’t banking nearly enough votes this time to put away Iowa.
As for #63 of the prior thread, I know that Fox doesn’t use Opinion Dynmaics anymore (not since that disaster in 2004), and I did NOT make that post. Glad to see that Dave W is starting to crack down on that.
Speaking of O-D and 2004, I am wondering if TIPP isn’t making the mistake that O-D did in 2004. If you’ll rememer O-D tried to take a conventional 3 day poll and then turn it into a track during the last week of the campaign…with laughably bad results. In the end O-D had to sheepishly admit that they didn’t have a clue as to what they were doing.
I am wondering if TIPP is the same way because every day TIPP has shown pro-Obama movement that no other poll shows (let alone all the other things wrong with it)
-Polaris
Hey Jenny,
Wanna see my poll?
******************************
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
Obama 47, Romney 47
Battleground/Politico poll predictions for tomorrow?
I say Romney +2
LA Times endorsed Obama today. Shocking……but too late to impact me. I voted absentee last week. Voted no on every ballot proposition too. Let CA go under…..they need to feel pain.
Simpson Inc
Oregon
Obama 48
Romney 46
@135 Romney +2 I say as well
132.Hey boys, stop looking at the foosball and stare into my beautiful BLUE eyes!
Tee hee
Comment by jenny’s BLUE POLLS!
**********
Jenny,
Did you mean “blue eyes”?
or “blue thighs”?
Sounds like a circulation problem. Calling Dr. Pitch…
#97…When its a landslide that means Mitt has a MANDATE to do what he thinks is best for this country. A landslide is also good because it won’t be contested like it was in 2000.
Btw the Simpson one is a joke
@139 no blue eyes, she is an avatar freak!
Im on the verge of buying Simpson Inc to compete w/ Paladin polls
MO
governor
PPP
Nixon 51
Spence 40
What time does battleground release it’s weekly poll Monday? Will also be curious to see if Rasmussen changes his generic congressional poll and voter breakdown, r,d,i.
@143 its on sale, $10 and a stick of gum. No take backs
kl, POLITICO’s poll comes out extremely early. It’ll be the 1st poll you hear about.
Awesome, I gotta go for a bit. I will be back soon,
Author talk to me later about buying Simpson inc. if you don’t like my offer counter
Thank you, Author
The 380+ EV goal is not that outrageous. Currently, Romney is +7 in Gallup in LVs, which would have been +9 if they hadn’t changed the LV screen. If Romney wins by 9, he may very well take Washington state. It’s only a D+5, which I think would put him over 380.
Simply a 5% wins get him 337.
If Gallup is right, it’s an EV blowout.
Concerning the ongoing US/Iran talks trying to sweet talk Iran into abandoning their nuke program:
Word is that Obammer is mulling over Iran’s promise to give up the nukes if U.S. does just five things:
1. changes pledge of allegiance to say “one nation, under Allah, and there is no God but Allah”
2. let the Ft. Hood shooter go free
3. hands over 100,000 Jews
4. allow Jerusalem to Iran’s capitol
5. give up the Sudetenland
PEACE IN OUR TIME!!!
Everyone apply for the Romney Election Day task force!
http://www.mittromney.com/forms/apply-election-day-task-force-0?utm_medium=email&utm_source=et&utm_content=link_body_www.mittromney.com%2forca&utm_campaign=1923827_114116_Dan%20Centinello
Mike ill buy it for $10 and the stick of gum
Simpson Inc will be releasing a poll for Vermont tomorrow afternoon and we are going to try to work in a New Mexico poll.
@153 really?
@155 sure why not. I think I can take the poll firm to new places and beat Paladin in the “fake but accurate” polling game
On Drudge
The photos of ooo kow towing to other leaders is worth thousands in advertising.
Wonder how R could get it discussed at the debate. Actually, should be easy to do.
Why doesn’t anyone offer to buy WASSUP… we have eyes and ears everywhere…
literally… EVERYWHERE… even where the sun don’t shine…
– WASSUP (Wardrobe, Socks, Suspenders, and Undergarments Polling)… run by knit-wits… you reap what you sew…
AP Breaking News
AP projects that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be declared the winner in the state of denial.
seems the troll w/ diff. identities is still around
Denial is one of the 57 states
115. 301 for Romney is my current prediction also. I think Penn could also fall but for now I’m sticking with 301.
Did anyone get a load of that ladies hat, who just sang God Bless America at the baseball game?
Now if Obama tebowed instead of bowed!!!
PPP national 48-48
+11 for Gov. Nixon (D) over Spence (R) for MO Gov sounds about right 2 me.
Author, I got a better idea. Why don’t we partner up, I poll the Northeast and west and you poll the rest?
@152 What is the job in the Romney election day task force?
PPP has O approval at 45-50.
ALM
One frequent poster here explained earlier this afternoon that phony screen names is all art of what makes HHR so much fun!
Anyone who disagrees (moi) is invited to shut up.
I expected Nixon would be up more than that on Spence.
@168 basically helps releay ground information to Romney victory centers, which republican has voted. Hand info out at a polling place
169. 45% approval? Burnt toaaaaaaaaaaaaaast indeed.
169- http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QlwilbVYvUg#t=196s
mnw doesn’t appreciate the finer art of the parody screen name…
Perhaps spongebob can explain this again…
http://spongebob.nick.com/videos/clip/100great-fun-clip.html
“Burnt toaaaaaaaaaaaaaast indeed.”
TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAST!!!
GRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!
Not good numbers:
RT @ppppolls Obama’s up 50/46 w/women, 61/33 w/Hispanics, 85/9 w/African Americans, & 50/39 w/young voters nationally http://t.co/LGugrqxr
I would agree that more than 301 EV’s is unlikely however, Obama is below 50% in every swingstate according to RCP. That’s very dangerous territory for an incumbent. So it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility, that all those states could fall, with a massive move towards Romney in the last week.
Another October Surprise.
http://www.blogher.com/what-women-should-know-about-our-old-boss-mitt-romney
177- Romney’s ahead of McCain with Latinos- figure split undecideds (or maybe 60% to Romney) and he hits 37%- which is what we got in the 2010 midterms.
PPP also only had Romney up by 6% in MO.
I can buy 8 think its more like 10.
http://www.9news.com/news/world/295389/347/Gas-prices-could-soon-drop-50-cents-a-gallon
Sorry. This is the correct link to the October surprise.
bio Mom
I also understand the President has a so so record, in the white house, for female hires as well as female pay issues.
http://moelane.com/2012/10/21/chickens-coming-home-to-roost/
179. I think the Romney campaign is getting these women out their ahead of what they know is probably coming. ie.. the Allred thing. Romney campaign is very smart. Let Allred run some lady out there complaining about abortion. Romney will run these business ladies out their to say what a great business leader Mitt is. This election is not about abortion. It’s the economy.
According to NumbersMuncher- PPP increased their national sample to D + 7, and its still tied. Romney at 51% (!) with indies, and 9% of indies are undecided, so Romney could easily go to 55% of Indies.
#182 – Those reductions in gas prices won’t work their way through the system for at least three more weeks. The wholesale price of gas dropped about $0.30 this week (down to $2.69 a gal) but it takes a few weeks for that work down to the pump. It won’t help Obama, not with 15 days to go until the election.
I think the PPP poll shows a 3-4 point Romney lead.
188- Has him up 10 with Indies- possibly greater than 3-4 points depending on turnout models.
Dylan…it is unkind of you to say we in California need to feel pain. This is a beautiful state that has too long been under the Dem’s thumb.
We have been inundated with illegal immigrants and
terribly burdened by the ecological restrictions. However, there are many conservatives here. I am praying it will flip red in the coming elections.
Scooter your obsessed with this Allred foolishness.
For many pollsters its like the 2008 elections are set in stone!!!
Its my bedtime but I should ad that Iowa PPP is even more D then 2008.
Jan, what the hell are you talking about. I’ve only made one post about the Allred thing today. I’m not obsessed with it at all. I was just responding to Biomom in 179.
Vito
I appreciate parody screen names. I’ve posted a lot of them myself, that old timers may remember, thus:
jEReMY E. WiTHrOw (mnw)
I have 472 pictures of Allred on my wall… am I obsessed?
#177, Not good for Obama or not good for Romney?
Gas prices go up like a rocket but drop like a feather.
Was $3.95 here and has recently dropped a dime to $3.85.
I remember Withrow…
Bitterlaw says:
October 21, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Tim V. _ Stay strong. If you need anything, let us know. We can go through Dave. I’m also one of the few members of the HHR facebook group. You can contact me. I always tell people that I know who are sick that they should only worry if I am nice to them. I’m not ready for that so here goes:
COme on, you fat bastard. Put down the doughnuts, take the radiation and stop being a p*ssy!
Feel better?
I weighed 295 in January. I dieted and got down to 265 in the spring. I now weigh 249, a weight I have not seen in 25 years.
Why is it “more fun” to actually impersonate another poster, & mislead & confuse?
197- god awful for Obama. He’s running behind his 2008 numbers with Latinos, well behind his 2008 numbers with young people.
126….
PPP existed in 1980?
V.P. Biden back in Wisconsin on Friday
Sending Biden there might just tip the state to us.
“Why is it “more fun” to actually impersonate another poster, & mislead & confuse?”
No regular steals handles… everyone uniformly supports banning for that… parody handles are not the same… nothing confusing or misleading about that.
“Sending Biden there might just tip the state to us.”
Wow… is it like Guam?
Why is Gallup so scared of Obama that they are putting out misleading polls?
Obama adds The tonight show to his campaign stops. Farewell tour continues
Obama campaign accepted foreign Web donation — and may be hiding more.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/bam_blind_eye_to_illegal_donors_8SWotytr1RvbhyDCRyyrEL
Vito, Corey and others,
I did go to the invaded site and see that you all comported yourselves well, caused quite a stir and took many prisoners.
Sadly, looks like there were a number of casualties (deletes).
Looks like a spy outed the operation, so I am glad a was not in the first wave of the invasion forces.
I do not think a HHR invasion could sneak a fart past a dead guard dog since there are obvious trolls here to blow the whistle and blow up any operation.
Nice try… keybored alwasys signed his name -kb
Fraud alert
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/nbc_oct_poll.pdf
The NBC poll.
I don’t know about a fake handle problem, but I DO know that the price of gas is too DAMN high!
Tim V. – keep fighting. You are strong in faith.
3 weeks before the election with the race tied (According to PPP), and Obama going on the tonight show. That’s got to leave some supporters scratching their heads.
Nice try… keybored alwasys signed his name -kb
Fraud alert”
And as liberal as kb was, he was an honorable vet who paid a price for our freedom…
so knock it off mf-er.
Fake handles are for losers.
Tim V!
Why did you re-post my good wishes to you and then say “thank you lisab”?
Totally confusing…..
“Fake handles are for losers.”
Stolen… stolen handles…
and damn skippy!
Cripes, I know one person here who has posted drive by parody posts under 52 different handles. 52!!!
(but, Good For Them, they never stole a real person’s handle)
I hope Dave W does not ban that person.
“Why did you re-post my good wishes to you and then say “thank you lisab”?
Totally confusing…..”
He thinks you are the same poster… based on how you would pop out of nowhere to defend her in the past… he was not around for your falling out with her, I think.
Parody Handle ==/== Fake handle.
The former is designed as humor and no (real) attempt at deception is being made. The latter is a direct attack against the integrity of the person who’s handle you are stealing because you are literally putting words into their mouth.
-Polaris
Where is Sir Carmine? I’m worried.
“Where is Sir Carmine? I’m worried.”
Since the truce, there just hasn’t been enough evil on the board to sustain him… I think he’s hibernating.
Interesting thing about that NBC poll… go look at the numbers they were showing in November 2010, then look at the current numbers. Almost identical! (the notable exception: Obama’s foreign policy numbers have collapsed)
“… I think he’s hibernating.”
By the way, I swiped his absentee ballot… shhhhhhhhhhhhh!
“Obama’s foreign policy numbers have collapsed”
That’s a lie! Political Wire told me different!
Read this fascinating post about the TIPP poll from 2008. We know it was up there with Rasmussen in terms of accuracy of its final 08 poll. But that’s not the whole story. After being way off of other pollsters’ results during the tracking, it suddenly adjusted to match the others on the final day.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet.php
Ppp claims tonight was a tie, Saturday R up a little and Friday O up a little. For what it’s worth.
My friends the left have gone into the bunker mentality, similar to how it was here in 2008.
I think Sir Carmine sold us out on the raid.
Most polling is a scam as PPP proved today in Iowa.
Looks like the NYT hurt Obama more then they helped him
New York Times quietly edits story on Iran nuclear negotiations after White House denial
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/21/new-york-times-quietly-edits-story-on-iran-nuclear-negotiations-after-white-house-denial/#ixzz29zcRIzms
231- seems to be the case. We must be relentless.
I just headed over to political wire and still can’t get on there with a post. I did read some of the posts there though. One I found interesting. It would be of interest to our NC trolls. The poster from SC said: “I volunteered online to help with GOTV in NC and someone said they would contact me. It’s been 5 days now with no contact. I’m getting worried”
They haven’t contacted you fool because, NC is OVAHHHHHHHH.
Thanks Mr. Vito.
I had no idea he thought her and i were the same poster!
Its amazing how much you know about all the posters on this board.
The only thing i tried to defend about lisab was her right to post here when some were trying to run her off.
But she totally lost me with her bigotry in the Chick Fil-A fiasco.
Tim V was not the only one to think that… other than the thing about the unions many moons ago, you usually would show up to compliment lisab.
Though nobody bothered to ask why I did not join the invasion force, I will tell you anyway.
No I did not:
A. fall asleep
B. have an Alzheimer moment and forget what I was suppopsed to do
C. chicken out
*******************************
What DID happen was at around the time the invasion was commencing, I had a post typed and was trying to log on.
(I did have difficulty loggin in and following that site)
Mrs. Walt comes to garage..err..”my spacious and well appointed home office” and says it is now time for us to deliver soup and baked goods to various (mostly elderly shut ins) members of our church.
So off we immediately go. Driving home, she wants me to go walking with her when we get home (as if my 4 miles a day of door-to-door isn’t enough) and I say SURE! (keeping peace, here).
On walk, wife says when we get home she needs me to be kitchen helper (empty dish washer, peel potatoes and apple, set table, cut roast, etc.).
After dinner, I wash up lots of dishes.
By this time invasion is way over and in the history books and numerous artcles of analysis have been written.
*********************
Besides, someone had to stay back and organize any rescue attempts that may have been needed.
Make yourself some money. Buy Romney on Intrade. He is at 39%. And I think the likelihood of a Romney victory is ~80%. Do yourself a favor. Buy now.
Not sure i would COMPLIMENT her…but i can see where it could be taken that way.
I have a real issue with men that call women names.
No matter how much i may disagree with someone, if they are a woman, i cannot abide the calling of names like slut and whore the now infamous FCW comment.
My point has always been…if you are going to call a woman a whore or slut, make sure you can handle it when i call your mother or your daughter or your wife the same thing. If you can’t handle it….keep your insults to yourself.
I guess i was just raised to have more respect for women than others. Even ones i dont like.
Of course….a quick GFY it totally ok!!
When is this site gonna get it’s chat forum connect through either twitter or facebook, good, etec?
It’s really time to start look at that.
Not only that….i am the founder of the HOBO’s!!
How could he think her and i were one and the same?
Oh well.
ummmmmmm … isn’t sick of dems a retired auto worker?
Ready for the rescue polls. McCall/Muhlenberg repolls PA and find that Casey and Obama are pulling away.
Colby Itkowitz ?@DCMorningCall
Look for our new poll in the am. Some good news for Bob Casey after a kinda rough week. And more evidence that Pa won’t be in play.
Nope, PA poll already released. Laughably considered not in play, OBama’s lead? 5 points: 50-45, one more than last time.
http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-pa-poll-presidential-debate-20121021,0,2558308.story
Casey up 45-37.
2012: the year polling died
246- Hah, their argument is that though the poll is statistically unchanged from the last one, the fact that Romney has not gained further is evidence that the 2nd debate blunted his momentum. Yeah…sure.
Yes he is…..why?
248- Morning Call is a mixed bag, their 2010 tracking poll was all over the place when it came down to it.
As I understand Politico/GWU poll will be released tomorrow.
One week ago they released their poll at 6am eastern time for those that want to get up early…
Does anybody know where Obama amd Joe will be campaigning next week and Mitt and Ryan?
Did i answer another fake lisab post?
This is getting silly…..
This where I go to find out what is happening for Mitt and Paul…not a clue about the Dems… http://www.mittromney.com/events
WSJ/NBC poll actually shows Romney up….by 3 voters.
Three out of 816 likely voters. Mittmentum! Obama is down to just 36% of the white vote. He won 43% in 2008. This is devastating for him. That’s several million votes–and the whitest states–Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire–are the swingiest states. Romney could actually lose Ohio and Nevada and still win if he just wins those 3 and Colorado.
219- i did so because it is my opinion that YOU are a parody handle that was created by lisab. in other words, i think you are a sock, lisa’s sock. does that clear it up for you ?
California Republican Party’s most hated California Republican, Abel Maldonado, is poised to knock off Lois Capps according to WSJ. He’s ahead by a point. District is nominally Democratic, but Maldonado’s Mexicanness is paying dividends in heavily Latino places like Santa Maria, the largest city in Santa Barbara County after this census. The Latinos in the coast are more like Latinos in Texas, tons of old families and not at all La Migra.
If Bilbray holds his seat, Waxman gets defeated, and DeLong of Long Beach wins, all SoCal coastal districts will be Republican from Coronado to Ragged Point. Except for that one district that lumps Compton and San Pedro together.
just gotta email from a dem w/ internals. the tide is finally turning. I was close to desperate last nite. but after seeing these numbers- esp in the south/ south east. my mind is eased a bit. what if a midwest election turns out to be a fla, va, election. AND this is the big news! MAYBE even NC. those numbers shocked me. esp the ‘already voted’. And i remember back at how shocked i was last time.
dave,
Souce with internals==source is lying to your face.
-Polaris
Believe what you want Tim V…..
I think all you really need to do is pay attention to what others here think.
Ask anyone here if they agree with what you just said.
Anyone.
Good luck to you either way.
Yea dave…….you are soooooooooo believable.
Where the hell is jason to chase these trolls away??
NEW BATTLEGROUND POLL: Romney Takes 2pt Lead
Romney: 49 (+1)
Obama: 47(-2)
Ahead in Competative states by 50 to 48 as well.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82691.html
Crosstabs Here:
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_oct22_questionnaire.html
DRI: 35D (25 strong)/31R (21 strong)/33 I (with a 2pt GOP net lean with the indies)
This is a D+4 Poll.
Good start tothe morning!
-Polaris
I think #265 should serve as some troll repellent
-Polaris
Red polls!
#267 Red Polls in morning/Obama take warning. Red Polls at night/Romney’s delight.
-Polaris
#265, Polaris, beat me to it. BTW, in the Battleground/GW poll, Romney leads 52-45 among those “extremely likely” to vote.
#258, no way that Waxman loses, though.
Did you all miss my early morning rants while I was on vacation?
Not really? Me, either.
#264:
That’s why the trolls don’t leave. You send out a lightweight like jason to talk to them.
So, much of this thread was devoted to fake handles? Yeah, that is a problem here, now. I have no idea why that is done, here. That is something that has only happened, lately. Several years ago, you wouldn’t have seen that on this site.
I predicted a 1 to 2 point BG margin for Romney yesterday.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/10/21/Forget-October-Anonymous-Sources-Say-November-Surprise-In-the-Works
For What It’s Worth.
Gallup stands by its numbers: http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/10/gallup-editor-in-chief-methodology-is-extremely-solid-139109.html
Great news on the Battleground Poll. What now? Axlerod has to call Politico to review demographics? Our polling czar is getting spread out pretty thin.
For now Romney up 0.3 in RCP. Fox News, Monmouth, and ABC rolled off.
Battling cancer and Sickofdems at the same time? Tim V is a magnificent bastard!
Romney back up in the RCP average. Now if TIPP will just come back to earth….
@275 If Obama attacks days before the election, he will definitely lose in a landslide. People are not that stupid. They would only think the attack is political and nothing else.
Red polls from now till nov 6th.
Tee hee.
I was right on the battleground poll prediction.