Romney Leads in Two VA Polls and One FL Poll, Obama Leads By 6% in OH
Some good news from a new poll done by Roanoke College for the state of Virginia that shows Mitt Romney opening up a 5% lead over Barack Obama.
PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Roanoke)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 44%US SENATE – VIRGINIA (Roanoke)
George Allen (R) 47%
Tim Kaine (D) 42%
This poll was done October 23-26 among 638 likely voters. We also have the next batch of tracking polls from Newsmax and Democrat John Zogby.
PRESIDENT – OHIO (Newsmax/Zogby)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 44%PRESIDENT – VIRGINIA (Newsmax/Zogby)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%PRESIDENT – FLORIDA (Newsmax/Zogby)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
These polls were done October 28-30 among likely voters. I only post this new poll from We Ask America for the state of Illinois because I am hoping it mans we will start seeing polls from the Battleground states from them this week.
PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (WAA)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 57%
Mitt Romney (R) 41%
This poll was done October 30th among 1198 likely voters.
first?
Wow.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/264989-romney-to-launch-final-campaign-blitz-with-major-ohio-rally-friday
Looks like no change in RAS
Scott is always touting the “stability” of the last month in 08. Bet he will show Mitt with 2-4 pt lead up until election day. This race is stable also.
Garrett Haake ?@GarrettNBCNews
Former Tampa Mayor Dick Greco, on the Romney rally undercard this morning: “I’m a registered Democrat. So what.”
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Yesterday, Zogby was convinced that Romney was failing because he was a Mormon. In today’s write-up,he says it is because of Hurricane Sandy.
I wish he would go away.It is an insult to us that his polls are posted at HHR.
“Former Tampa Mayor Dick Greco, on the Romney rally undercard this morning:”
Greco was a Crist supporter in 2010
The RAS writeup is up and contains a couple nuggets of good news.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
New surveying Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romney’s fortunes if he loses Ohio.
The Obama Messiah carried Illinois in ’08 by more than 25 points. Even if he picks up all the undecideds and there is no third party vote at all, his margin will be, at most, 19 points. The odds are that it will be between 16 and 17 points, so at least, in realistic terms, a 7 point drop off. Replicate that across the U.S. and you have a narrow Romney PV win.
Thanks Author, I just thought it was weird that he would be attending.
The Colorado numbers sound reasonable when compared to the early vote.
Not sure if this is new news or not…
New Franklin & Marshall poll shows Romney down 48-44 to Obama…
Last month he was down 11 50-39…
https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keyoct12_1.pdf
#3 Actually I expect a Ras jump tomorrow. Ther eis a strong pro-Obama day that rolled on on Sunday that also skewed his indies.
-Polaris
Meant to add that was for PA…
#5 Zogby needs to retire from political polling. His cred is completely shredded at this point.
-Polaris
Rasmussen indicates a similar percentage dropoff for The Obama Messiah in Massachusetts (i.e., down 7 points from ’08).
#11 I know that Battlewatch commented on that poll.
-Polaris
I hope you Ohio guys who keep telling us that Romney will win OH by 3 to 5 are right.
Bitterlaw says:
October 31, 2012 at 7:07 am
Tim V. – It’s good to see you. Please post every few days. If you don’t post for more than 2 weeks, where can I send a donation in lieu of flowers? Zing!
how bout a donation to rev hagee ?
ZING !
ps- when i go to heaven, elaine will let ya all know
#16 I meant to say battlegroundwatch.
11- I see that F&M used an RV sample, and then whacked that down to just 36% for it’s LV screen. Seems a bit much, no?
Good morning, HHR.
Hunter, where do you get those Colorado early voting numbers? I tracked from 10/29 to 10/30, as you did, and the trend yesterday was increased Republicans. I’d like to see today’s numbers to compare.
Newsmax is a hard right site. At times, they are flat out goofy. Hiring Zogby just adds to that well deserved reputation.
#17 MD I think it ultimately comes down to the national number. If Romney wins the national PV, he’ll win Ohio. That’s my take for what it’s worth.
-Polaris
That PA poll seemed very odd. The partisan ID spread was quite high, I think that BG Watch site dissected it.
It feels like the whack-a-mole game at the amusement park, but this 2008-redo narrative keeps popping up, and the data below has NEVER ONCE been refuted by any troll since I started posting this about a month ago. If we were going to face 2008 all over again, then the GOP would get SHELLED in the house battleground districts. However, the polls of individual districts do not show this, they actually show the Dems getting their heads handed to them.
You see, its easy to skew a state-wide poll (just call Madison and Milwaukee more than you should and boom you have an Obama friendly WI poll). But its MUCH harder to skew a congressional district poll.
District – recent polls (R/D) – pundits – McCain/Obama
AR_01 – 53/28, TalkBus – Likely R – 58/39
AR_04 – 51/22, TalkBus – Likely R – 60/37
AZ_01 – 50/45, R Int – Lean D – 51/48
AZ_09 – 44/42, SG – Lean D to Likely D – 47/51
CA_07 – 47/47, PPP(D) – Toss to weak R – 46/51
CA_09 – 46/45, Terr. – Lean D – 41/56
CA_21 – 53/33, Moore – Likely R – 46/52
CA_36 – 46/47, PPP(D) – Likely R – 47/50
CA_41 – 38/42, EMC – Lean D – 38/42
CA_52 – 40/45, D Int. – Toss to lean D – 43/55
CO_04 – 42/35, D int. – Likely R to safe R – 57/42
CO_06 – 40/36, PPP(D) – Tossup – 45/54
CO_07 – 45/35, R int. – Likely D to Safe D – 41/57
CT_05 – 42/35, R int. – Lean D to likely D – 42/56
FL_02 – 46/47, Media – Likely R – 52/47
FL_09 – 42/45, Media – Lean D to Likely D – 39/60
FL_10 – 51/40, Media – Lean to Likely R – 52/47
FL_13 – 49/40, Media – Likely R to Safe R – 47/51
FL_16 – 55/38, Media – Weak R to Lean R – 51/48
FL_18 – 51/42, PPP(D) – Tossup to lean R – 48/51
FL_22 – 47/47, SS – Lean D – 43/57
FL_23 – 40/44, Gravis – SAFE D – 38/62
FL_26 – 43/41, Media – Lean D – 50/50
GA_12 – 45/48. D int. – Tossup to Lean R – 56/44
IA_01 – 47/45, R int. – Likely to Safe D – 40/58
IA_03 – 45/45, D int. – D tossup to Lean R – 46/52
IA_04 – 48/45, PPP(D) – Tossup to Lean R – 50/48
IL_08 – 45/55, WAA – Likely D – 37/62
IL_10 – 54/46, WAA – Tossup to Lean D – 36/63
IL_11 – 50/50, WAA – Weak D – 37/61
IL_12 – 46/51, WAA – Tossup to Weak R – 44/55
IL_13 – 50/45, WAA – Lean R – 44/55
IL_17 – 52/48, POS – Tossup to Lean D – 38/60
KY_06 – 46/49, POS – Lean D to Likely D – 54/45
MA_06 – 37/31, BosGlb. – Toss to Lean R – 41/57
MD_06 – 41/42, B-Sun – Likely D – 42/56
ME_02 – 40/47, ERS – Likely to Safe D – 43/55
MI_01 – 40/43, D Int. – Tossup to lean R – 48/50
MI_03 – 50/36, POS – Lean R to Likely R – 49/50
MI_09 – 42/44, NorthStar – SAFE D – 40/58
MI_11 – 48/39, F.Mcm – Lean R – 48/50
MN_02 – 49/41, SUSA – Likely R – 48/50
MN_08 – 44/48, PPP(D) – Weak D to Toss – 45/53
MT_01 – 40/37, PPP – Lean R to Likely R – 50/47
NC_08 – 50/41, NRCC – Lean to Likely R – 57/42
ND_01 – 49/35, M-D – Lean R to Likely R – 49/35
NH_01 – 48/47, PPP(D) – Tossup to Lean R – 46/53
NH_02 – 36/39, UNH – Lean D to R Toss – 43/56
NJ_03 – 51/34, McL-n – Likely R – 48/51
NV_03 – 50/40, SUSA – Tossup – 45/54
NV_04 – 47/42, SUSA – Likely D – 41/56
NY_01 – 48/43. McL-n – Lean D – 48/51
NY_11 – 48/36, POS – Lean R to Likely R – 51/48
NY_18 – 49/42, Siena – Tossup to Lean R – 47/52
NY_19 – 48/43, Siena – Tossup to Lean R – 45/53
NY_21 – 40/45, POS – Tossup to Lean D – 47/52
NY_24 – 44/46, D Int. – Tossup to Lean D – 42/56
NY_25 – 44/49, Siena – Lean D to Likely D – 40/59
NY_27 – 47/47, Siena – Tossup to Weak D – 54/44
OH_16 – 51/41, OnM – Tossuep -51/47
PA_06 – 54/30, WPA – Lean R to Likely R – 46/53
PA_12 – 45/43, – Tossup to Weak D – 54/45
RI_01 – 45/39, OnMess. – Lean D – 32/67
TX_23 – 47/37, R Int. – Toss to Lean R – 49/50
UT_04 – 49/43, DesNws – Lean D to Tilt R – 56/41
VA_02 – 44/32, CNU – Lean R – 49/50
WA_01 – 44/47, SUSA – Lean D – 42/56
WI_07 – 48/44, PPP(D) – Lean R – 45/53
WI_08 – 47/41, NP – Lean R to Likely R – 45/54
#22 What’s funnier is that Zogby (a known Dem) could only get hired by this far right (and goofy) site. I bet that’s a match made in
heavenhell.-Polaris
Actually, BG Watch has done a great job of tearing the PA poll apart; subsamples from the geographic regions (where Mitt leads in the Philly burbs), DRI, etc.
I concur with their discussion; PA is tied.
BTW, fellow A-Holes (and adolescent applicants), our two charter members have a brouhaha going on. First it was Mitt’s chances in PA, now it’s Chris Christie. Our annual Thanksgiving bash (where we bash one another repeatedly for hours) will be quite tense this year…
Tim V – While I don’t look forward to any of your posts, I hope that Elaine’s post is a long way off. Keep fighting.
I wonder if Gallup will post today. Thoughts?
-Polaris
Come on people, PA is not tied. Its not out of reach for Romney but Obama is still leading. If the moons are aligned, Romney might have a chance to get PA and that’s a big IF.
GF – It’s really only a theoritical dispute with MD. Until he mans up and re-registers as a Republican, he won’t have a say in future primaries.
17 – I am not an OH guy, but I actually drove out there three weeks ago and looked around for myself and spoke with the locals. It greatly encouraged me. But again, in 2008 Obama got 51% in OH with all the wind at his back. The anger and passion among the good people of OH that I saw was incredible. The people I spoke with hate the news media, and hate pollsters…all corrupt. The wouldn’t just hang up on pollsters who call, they would swear at them, then hang up. Those people have but ONE poll on their minds, the one taken on Nov 6.
#31 I think PA is definately in play, but as I said before, if Romney gets it, he won’t need it.
-Polaris
31 – for months I have been saying that the only way for Mitt to win PA is if a late season hurricane goes right up Delaware bay and hits Philly. But now it appears that even that might not be enough.
I don’t know if PA as a whole is tied. I do know that Barry is going to get a major
thumping in western PA.
D+13 in the F&M poll does seem out of whack. I could believe D+8 with no difficulty.
At D+8 it is a virtual tie. Well, who the f knows.
Bitter, your CBS affiliate only ranks Kate as #23; you should send in a strongly worded letter of complaint.
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/photo-galleries/2012/08/21/2012-top-25-sexiest-women-alive/photo-303687/
From the Roanoke poll of VA:
Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney’s lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen’s lead to 51 percent to 39 percent.
Dave, I voted for you yesterday and will do so again today. I will express my complaints later…
I enjoy HHR and appreciate all to time you put into the blog.
DW – don’t get mad but were these the same 46% who voted for McCain the last time? So, they are angrier now but their votes would still count the same. Were there Obama voters in 08 or did they sit the election out? That would make a difference.
Being angrier does not in of itself make a difference.
Sean…
I’m getting the CO updates from Coloradopeakpolitics.com…
Scroll down about half way…
They have the last 4-5 days and a nice comparison to 2008…
Not sure when it updates…
Also went to the SoS site this morning but maybe they were not posted yet…
That is an outrage. I’m not sure if I even watch anything on CBS other than some Eagles games when they play the AFC.
Tim V
Glad to see you posting.
Get ready for some new heroes called Pitch, Azguy, RB and Dick Morris.
“I hope you Ohio guys who keep telling us that Romney will win OH by 3 to 5 are right.” Yes, I hope we are right too. True, 2008 did not work out, but we won Ohio in 2004 despite the fact that people said it could not be done.
#41 Being angrier does make you more likely to turn out though, MD. A lot of those missing republicans that I found in my data analysis after the 2008 election came from Ohio. Compare McCain’s OH number to GWB’s four years earlier and you’ll see what I mean.
If those republicans out of anger decide to turn out (and that seems to be the case thus far), then the 2008 model for Ohio is wrong.
-Polaris
Hunter I am very sure CO will vote Mitt w/ the more evidence I gather. Oh remains the biggest question of this election.
Being angrier does not in of itself make a difference.
Comment by MD
Can anybody imagine MD saying this before the Goose flew away? Stunning progress.
39 – maybe I was wrong on Allen.
My heart really wants the “the samplings are bs” theory to be proven correct.
Our country is already in huge trouble. Huge trouble. Keeping this Marxist in for another 4? Hard to even think about really.
41 – It was people who voted McCain, however, they all spoke of people they knew who had voted Obama and now are just as angry as they are and ready to vote Romney.
MD im too scared to think about what we’ll look like in 2016 after 4 more years of this guy. I try to tell myself itll be ok but…
#51 Well ultimately we’ll know in about a week. I can only present the evidence and let you (and others) judge for yourself. I really do think that if Romney leads the PV by more than a percent, he wins the EC too.
-Polaris
46
100000% disagree. Go back to the threads in 04. We were all saying Bush was going to win OH except for the Dems who posted here. All of us.
WV ABS/EV TOTAL thru yesterday
85,000 total
about 12K each day lately are EV now.
I predict final EV total will be in 140-150K range. In 2008 it was 153K.
R EV so far seems up some, esp. in my 3 county area in far east.
You see, some of us were here then so we know better.
Again, Obama got 51% in OH in 2008. There is NO REASON to believe he will match his performance there or do better.
That means the options are:
Obama gets 50% and wins OH
Obama gets 49% and its a push
Obama gets 48% or worse and he loses.
#54 Yes and we were right. However, if you go back to 2004, about a week before the election, the RCP had Ohio awash in Kerry blue, and the Kerryites were celebrating, we dug in and said then essentially what a lot of us are saying now. If the national polls show Bush (Romney) ahead, then he is NOT losing Ohio.
-Polaris
Can an amendment to the Constitution be ruled “unconstitutional” by the Supreme Court? Seems like an oxymoron but I am just wondering.
CO, FL, VA and NC are lost.
What on earth is left?
NH, OH, IA and WI. And maybe MI or PA. Which way do you think the mo is?
Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up
ED MORRISSEY (an undercount of R.)
Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap. In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents. In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm. I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/final-cbsnytq-polls-in-oh-fl-va-show-obama-up/
INDIANA
Romney 57 (+2)
Obama 39 (-2)
10/30/12 – McLauglin
They had just polled this race on 10/25, and the difference is shown in parenthesis above!
They also have Mourdock up 45/44
DW – well, for as much as we hate Obama (and people in OH hate him), he is doing incredibly well in the polling. He should be down by at least 5 in all polls. Not even Ras shows that result.
They better have a GOTV plan to end all GOTV plans come Nov 6.
#59 No. At least that is my take. SCOTUS can rule an amendment to a state constitution unconstitatutional under the 14th amendment (and has), but to my knowledge if the US Constitution is amended, SCOTUS is completely cut from the loop.
This was how we got a national income tax in fact. Scotus had ruled it was unconstitutional, so the feds pushed an amendment to make it constitutional.
-Polaris
DW
Obama gets more than 50% in Ohio.
It’s coming. Obama will win Ohio.
All the polls cant be wrong…. they are picking up a big Dem turnout in that state.
What concerns me more is Obama campaigning with Gov Crist. Methinks Chris Crist wants to suck up to the winning side. And he knows that it is Obama.
Mourdock up by 1 in a R leaning poll? I will stick with him winning a close race. NEVER should have been close. Never.
Akin – goodbye.
“All” the polls are not wrong…just those that use a 2008 type electorate. Also remember that virtually ALL the polls (including those with reasonable DRIs) are oversampling the early vote by a factor of about 2 because it’s bolloxing the LV screens…and that will also skew a poll to Obama.
-Polaris
“We were all saying Bush was going to win OH except for the Dems who posted here. All of us.” OK, let me rephrase that slightly. Most polling companies did not believe that Mr. Bush would win Ohio. True there were a few exception. To be sure, the 2012 state polling of Ohio is even worse. Most do not realize how much Ohio has changed over the past few years with regards to party ID.
GF,
Will you have any videos available for sale of the A-Hole Thanksgiving “bash”?
This cowboy is interested in buying and watching.
**********************************
“Yee-Haw!!!! Moo! Pick up the pace Bessie. We need to get down the cash cow highway.”
Author-What’s your sense about FL. Romney felt the need to go there today for some reason. Do you sense tightening or do you sense that he is trying to nail it down for good.
Bay – it does cause me concern that for all this “anger” it is with McCain voters and we only get anecdotal evidence of Obama voters turning.
Sorry – the issue we have discussed to death is a big issue. If it wasn’t OH would already be off the table. Not saying we cannot win OH but it looks to be a great challenge.
I do not get the Eeyoring going on here. Its not like 2008 where many of us were saying ALL THE POLLS were wrong. What we are saying now is that polls partying like its 2008 or BETTER for the Dems, are simply wrong. Thankfully other pollsters are producing state results that do not share that outlook.
@70 nail it down. i’ve said it for weeks now. Mitt will win FL. Mack i’m not so sure about.
I said yesterday that the media would make Romney look bad and King Obama good.
MSN.com Headline
Romney Campaigns
Obama visits victims
Found this in an old email:
“Funny how the far left liberals try to hide behind the FWB argument (Failing While Black).
Yes Obamster is FAILING in a huge way. But not because he is Black.
FAILING..because he:
–does not lead.
–does not hear.
–thinks that words and image are all that matter.
–does not understand the values of Americans.
–does not himself respect and subscribe to 200 + years of time-tested core American values and beliefs.
–does not believe in ANY of the revered American institutions (capitalism, the family, Judea-Christian individualism) that made this country great.
–does not believe in American exceptionalism.
–does not believe in rule of law.
–believes the ends justify the means.
–stays in campaign mode 24/7 (except when he is AWOL on his seemingly endless series of vacations after vacations.
–clings ridigly to the failed views of socialistic clap trap that never has nor never will work.
–does not lead by positive example, and instead says one thing but by his actions does just the opposite (preaching fiscal frugality, healthy food and lifestyles, rise above racism and hatred and hate filled language, etc., etc. and failing to walt the walk.
Because of the above, Mr. resident you would be guaranteed to fail regardless of what skin color, eye color, hair color, size of ears, etc. you happen to have.”
scotus cannot undue an amendment as by definition that becomes part of the constitution.
If an amendment is passed to enslave lefthanders it’s not stoppable.
“70.Author-What’s your sense about FL. Romney felt the need to go there today for some reason.”
There is a faulty premise here. You have no reason to suggest that Romney had felt the need. These events are planned long in advance. Romney is a master planner, and I would suspect that months ago, the plan was a final visit to FL and VA in the waning days of the campaign. MasonDixon and Sunshine st. News polls BOTH say FL is over, and I have no reason to doubt that conclusion.
Bayern,
“All the polls” is an overstatement.
Ras showed Romney up 2 in Ohio and several have shown a tie. Most show Romney gaining in Ohio.
Now, if undecideds break 2-1 for Romney and he wins a narrow victory in Ohio, a lot of Ohio polls showing a tie or even Romney down 1 will technically be “right” in saying they nailed Ohio.
68 – Nope. Factually inaccurate. Not sure where you are getting that from. We are very good at finding past data here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_bush_vs_kerry.html
The last 10 polls had Bush up in 9 of them and he had a 2.1% RCP lead. The only one to get it wrong was gallup (working with others). So, I am not sure what you are referring to in that post.
walt, this can be arranged, but only if you ride your cash cow to the dinner; I’m tired of turkey and want a rib roast instead.
‘All the polls cant be wrong…. they are picking up a big Dem turnout in that state.”
By that logic, you are claiming that Mr. Obama will most likely win WI, PA, Iowa and Nevada and thus the election. But more to the point, if you that all Ohio Dems will vote for Mr. Obama, you are in for one surprise.
#79 MD, you need to read what I posted carefully because MoR made the same error. A week BEFORE the election, the Ohio polls were awash in Kerry blue. That is easy to verify.
It so happens that in the final few days before the election, most of the Ohio polls did come out for GWB but that wasn’t true a week BEFORE the election. Check the record again.
-Polaris
Gotcha, GF.
Will depend on the weather around Thanksgiving if I can ride the cow from here to Philly.
77-I tend to think FL is over as well, but since Author is from there, I just wanted his opinion. I have no power, so it is difficult for me to try to figure out what the campaigns are looking like now.
I don’t think Obama is over 50% in Ohio. He had a 6.5% lead nationally when he won Ohio by 4.5% now he is down by at least 1% nationally.
Second, Bayern is taking a little license with “all the polls since the most recent up on RCP actually has Romney winning in Ohio.
Finally, Crist campaigning is meaningless. When he declared support for Obama the polls showed a much better race for Obama than now, so he has no choice.
#79/#82 My apologies. For some reason It thought you were talking about my posts…sigh..speaking of reading carefully…..
Nevertheless, I think DW has a valid point. The polls in Ohio were pro-Kerry until a literal minute change to Bush…so I don’t think it’s entirely fair to say that DW was ‘inaccurutate’.
-Polaris
“The last 10 polls had Bush up in 9 of them and he had a 2.1% RCP lead.” What about the last 10 before that? We can all do real polls the last weekend before the election. We still have a few days left for junk polls.
#86 Should read ‘literal last minute change’
Beginning on 10/25 (a week before the election), 9 out of the last 10 polls had Bush ahead. We are now in the last week so we will see what happens Polaris.
I was responding to Ohio Joe’s post where flatly stated “Most polling companies did not believe that Mr. Bush would win Ohio”.
That is not accurate. The record indicates the opposite. I just can’t stand when we try to bend facts to make our points.
What else can some of these pollsters do? They DESPERATELY are rooting for Obama. Some of the OPENLY rooting. They see Romney CRUSHING Obama among independents. So what can they do? If they give an honest weighting of the polls then they are saying its OVER and then the senate goes down in flames along with Obama. So their ONLY option is to suggest the party ID gap will be the same as 2008 or even STRONGER for the Dems. Its the only way they can surpress the numbers to show Obama still tied or slightly ahead. Listen to people like Barone who say this race is Romney’s.
Tom makes a good point. With a narrow victory by Romney in Ohio all those polls showing Obama up by 1, 2, 3 even 4 points will all have nailed it.
#87 Which was my point to MD.
If you want a better example of rotten state polling, look at Florida in 2004. The state polling was saying that Florida was trending Kerry and that Florida was a tossup and the trend was definately to Kerry. If you believed the state polls.
If you believed the national polling, bush had florida well in hand.
Bush won Florida that year by 5pts, easy-peasy.
-Polaris
Is there evidence that a state’s voter participation rate will be much above the national norm, or that state’s usual participation rate due to the amount of attention that state receives by the candidates?
With all eyes on FL in 2004, did participation in FL 2004 vastly exceed FL 2000?
Will Ohio 2012 vastly exceed Oh 2008?
Didn’t most of the polls have Kasich losing to Strickland in 2010 too?
87 – that is NOT what you said though. Most polling firms had Bush winning. The trolls were applying party ID’s from 2000 and stating that Kerry was going to win when the correct party ID was used.
BOO!
Am I the first to give everyone Happy Halloweenie?
********************
BTW, WV is in a mess with the damage caused by flooding, winds and up to 3 feet of snow. Two counties in heavy snow area (Preston and Randolph I think) have suspended early voting.
Negative radio ads and mailers are also flooding WV in the last week or so leading up to the election.
“Beginning on 10/25 (a week before the election), 9 out of the last 10 polls had Bush ahead.” Yeah, but junk polls were not included in there average back then, but that did not stop the MSM.
94 – No. The vast majority had him winning and doing so by a margin that was greater than his actual victory.
Sometimes I really wonder.
The polls I’ve seen of IN and MO Senate races since the gaffes, there are alot of undecideds, much more than the Pres race. I think most of these folks will vote GOP, but don’t want to tell the pollsters, even if it is a robopoll.
“Didn’t most of the polls have Kasich losing to Strickland in 2010 too?” Maybe not most, but several.
As a lapsed lawyer, I agree the Supreme Court cannot rule an amendment unconstitutional. But it can probably rule on whether the constitutional requirements for amending the constitution were met (passage by Congress, ratification, etc.).
Ironically, hasn’t the California Supreme Court rule some voter passed amendments to the state constitution unconstitutional? Now, there’s an oxymoron–but what would you expect in California?
Author…
I’m cautiously optimistic as well…
Looking forward to today’s ballot numbers to be released…
He had a very good day yesterday (data collected through Monday) so we’ll see…
When people are arguing what the polls REALLY said in 2004, I think we have hit a wall.
97 – why do you keep changing the story? You said something that wasn’t accurate.
Philip Klein ?@philipaklein
RT @daveweigel: Axelrod on independents in swing states: “We may not win these voters but we may not have to win these voters.”
Axelrod suggesting that it is a base election – similar to 2004?
link at Rasmussen: Investor Confidence Drops Six Points on Monday
100 – Are you going to make me do this as well?
Another positive note (I think) for Romney in CO…
SoS office confirms this bit from Human Events…
The office of Secretary of State Scott Gessler announced that 19,055 military and overseas ballot requests had been received, 2,804 more than in 2008. The 8,320 completed ballots the state has already received from these voters amounts to a return rate 80 percent higher than in the 2010 election.
I just took a look at the RCP Ohio average for Obama vs. McCain on 10/30.
It overstates Obama’s vote by 2 points.
jimgeraghty ?@jimgeraghty
You’re going to have to ask yourself one thing: just what states are you willing to stake your mustache on?
2m jimgeraghty jimgeraghty ?@jimgeraghty
Is there any strong argument that self-identified Dems will make up a larger percentage of the electorate in 2012 than they did in 2008?
Expand
When will Wes show up here to give us his take?
***************************************
And is it true that Wes lures women up to his pad with the line:
“Hey baby, come up to my place you can show me your internals and I will show you my private pole..er poll.”
MD is technically correct. The last ten polls of Ohio did show Bush winning the state (done within the last week). However it is true that it was a very last minute change.
Honestly if we are going to look for a 2004 model of Ohio this year (for polling), I think that Florida is a better candidate. The state polls had had florida be a razor thin race all the way through, and in spite of Bush’s persistant national lead the entire fall cycle, Bush could never somehow translate that into a solid Florida position to put the state away even thought the PVI strongly suggested that Florida was significantly more republican than the country as a whole.
Does this sound familiar to a state for this cycle?
At the very end, the trend for the state polling in Florida was clearly going Kerry’s way, and the arguments were starting to be floated that Kerry could win the EC by taking Florida (or Ohio and Florida) while Bush won the PV.
Course it turnout out that Florida was an easy Bush in as the national polling had suggested all along.
-Polaris
I think MD and Ohio Joe are both correct. The final polls did show Bush ahead but there were polls showing Kerry ahead just before that.
This is getting old fast. Here are the polls. Your “junk” firms ARE included btw. So, there goes that argument. Why not admit you are just wrong. 2010 Kasich polls. The RCP average was fairly close but over a 4 month (yes 4 month) period, 1 poll had Strickland up by 1. 1. 1 poll.
Facts – can we just stick to them instead of making up stuff when it is possible to actually use facts?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/oh/ohio_governor_kasich_vs_strickland-1078.html#polls
For those who are concerned Romney’s visit to FL is because the race has tightened … DONT WORRY. I live in Central FL. Romney has all the mo-jo … talking with people at the grocery store, at church … everybody is sick of Obama.
This is a rally the troops for the final push. All good generals do this.
Alright, I should not have said ‘ALL’ pollsters. However, as bad as polling is in 2012, not ALL pollsters are saying that Mr. Obama will win either. Bottom line is do not fear about Ohio and 2012.
What state will you bet your left nut on? Utah for me.
Ohio newspapers put Mitt’s relief efforts front and center, omits Failbama from front page. Still sure that they’d put him back there baceuse of Christie? Remember, they can’t put Christie in the paper because of space reasons.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/31/opening_act_just_grab_something.html
I am not saying we cannot win Ohio. However, this thread is why I can’t trust guys like Ohio Joe. Simple facts elude them. When caught, they try to change the story. RCP wasn’t including junk pollsters, the last week, Kasich was behind in some polls and on and on…
If you want to see what the wait is to early vote in Dem heavy Broward county FL go to
http://www.browardsoe.org/
and scroll down to the early voting wait times link. A PDF will open. You have to refresh the main page to get the updated times (They are updated every two hours). If my memory is correct, the wait times are shorter than past elections.
“Hey baby, come up to my place you can show me your internals and I will show you my private pole..er poll.”
Are you crazy? Why beat around the bush with all that romantic crap?
I just say “hey let’s f–k”.
Ras states that party ID will be equal in OH Whoever wins the indies wins OH.
Discuss.
Ok, let’s kindly move along about 2004 0H – most, all, some polls.
#122 I think Ras is likely close to correct in that assessment, and it would be consistant with my D+2 national model.
-Polaris
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/31/release-the-kraken-romney-campaign-to-hit-the-road-with-100-surrogates/
Romney’s Grand Finale
“Honestly if we are going to look for a 2004 model of Ohio this year (for polling), I think that Florida is a better candidate.” True, but the picture did become clear in FL a few days earlier than Ohio. True, not all Florida polls in the middle of the week put Mr. Bush ahead in Florida beyond the margin of error, but enough did.
“I am not saying we cannot win Ohio.” Not outright, but I am beginning to wonder.
“RCP wasn’t including junk pollsters,” So you beg to differ on that?
There will not be higher levels of Dems this year. Just not possible.mRemember 2008.
Nothing could match that. Therefore these state polls are not credible if they use greater D levels than 2008.
There is nothing over optimistic about saying that.
Should have said “Was including” as it pertains to 2010. BTW – they ALL had Kasich ahead.
Can you please at least check things out before pretending you really know anything? Honestly, it is embarrassing to disprove what you say so easily.
#126 Here is the final RCP Average for Florida before the 2004 election:
RCP Average | 10/25-11/1 – - 48.2 47.6 1.0 Bush +0.6
ARG | 10/30-11/1 600 LV 4.0 48 50 1 Kerry +2
Zogby | 10/29-11/1 601 LV 4.1 48 48 – TIE
FOX News | 10/30-31 700 LV 3.0 44 49 1 Kerry +5
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 742 LV 3.7 49 48 – Bush +1
Insdr Adv | 10/29-31 400 LV 5.0 48 48 1 TIE
Quinnipiac | 10/27-31 1098 LV 3.0 51 43 1 Bush +8
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-30* 1138 LV 4.1 47 50 – Kerry +3
Rasmussen | 10/25-31 600 LV 4.0 50 47 – Bush +3
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 45 – Bush +4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/fl_polls.html
It has Bush up by less than a point and the trend if you follow my link was clearly going Kerry’s way. This was right up to election day.
The pollsters blew it in 2004 w/r/t Florida.
-Polaris
Mason Dixon pulls a Suffolk and pulls out of Florida.
“Mason-Dixon will no longer poll Florida; predicts Romney win”
http://www.examiner.com/article/mason-dixon-will-no-longer-poll-florida-predicts-romney-win
here is an interesting follow-up to an anecdote I supplied back in March. Back then I called this friend I have in SC. He was very very angry Romney was headed toward being the nominee. He said Obama and Romney were the same. He said Romney was terrible in many ways and there was NO WAY in the world he would ever vote for Romney. I reported that here on HHR, with the promise to have a follow-up in late Oct.
I spoke to him last night.
And what a difference 7 months make. He did admit that Romney wasn’t his first choice but he was GUSHING with praise for him, and is enthusiastically supporting him against Obama.
Per Colorado Peak Politics…
Romney extends lead in ballots returned…
New numbers will be coming out shortly…
OH is a close call. However, I can’t buy into anything you say Ohio Joe because you don’t get the basics right. Zero credit-ability and worse, you don’t give us credit for being able to do simple google searches. Show me some polls that had Kasich behind in the last month that were not D internals.
I have seen your posts here over time. Facts are not your strong suit but you like to distract people with outrageous, dead ender type of statements.
You either lied about Kasich polls or you are just ignorant and are willing to post things without even checking.
Well now MD and Suffolk both say that Romney has Florida in the bag. MD does good state polling (as much as any state polling is good).
I wouldn’t fret about Florida people.
-Polaris
Romney opens up 7-point lead over Obama, as electoral map begins to shift
Posted on October 31, 2012
Read more: http://conservativebyte.com/2012/10/romney-opens-up-7-point-lead-over-obama-as-electoral-map-begins-to-shift-2/#ixzz2AtNuFh5Q
Ok, let’s kindly move along about 2004 0H – most, all, some polls.
Comment by Tina
Tina gave the warning shot. You won’t hear the next one.
Ok let’s say the RCP average is in fact correct. Obama is still not at 50 and we have 4.4% undecided.
Give Romney 2/3 of the undecided and you have a 50.5-49.5.
So even if you don’t question any of the pro-Obama polls it’s still exceedingly close.
Those throwing in the towel are doing so very prematurely.
It’s unbelievable Obama has ANY chance to win given his job PERFORMANCE and the state of the economy, his JA numbers, etc.
But…a lot of people are stupid.
We need to face the fact that people on the street cannot name major political figures or identify them by color photos, but can identify Justin Bieber. A lot of people depend, monetarily and psychologically, on monster size government.
Logically, and historically, the national polls cannot be wrong at the same time as these state polls are so wildly divergent, or else Gallup’s 5 point tilt is too optimistic and it’s just 1 pointer as some others suggest.
No president since FDR (!!!) has won re-election with a SMALLER win on the EC than he won on the initial try, and in that case it was in his 3rd to 4th outing. It’s a given that unless a defending president wins BIGGER on try 2, he does not win.
How can Romney win indies by 10 points and lose the election, even in the EC? Almost impossible. Sure, if it was Romney +1-2 on Independents he could lose a close one base turnout, but not here. This is not 2008, no way O has the support like D+7 this time round.
But, honestly, with this damn storm that O has tons of press in the last week to look presidential, coupled with idiots, we have a perfect storm, pun intended.
Christie could have noted that the president responded, he did NOT have to build him up so clearly at Romney’s expense AND he could have noted that ANY prez would have done the same, and that a prez Romney certainly would have. What a stab in the back.
In a cycle with a shaky incumbent with economic numbers like this, it would almost NEVER happen that a sitting prez would win, he’d be tossed in a landslide. This makes no sense if Obama wins.
Romney has had good debates without blunders in the last month when people were deciding. No error of any real kind. He should win easily, but will he?
Other than Sandy, it makes no sense for an O run-up now, the cake should be baked. I’m at a loss for words now…
Our country is already in huge trouble. Huge trouble. Keeping this Marxist in for another 4? Hard to even think about really.
Comment by MD — October 31, 2012 @ 11:06 am
cannot imagine a Supreme Court with 4 Obama appointees
We can win Ohio. However, I will only base it on things I can quantify. I won’t make up things about past elections that are not true. Remember, this is the guy who probably thinks Santorum would be up by 10 in OH.
I wonder how much a bandwagon effect can matter in a tight race when the MSM pushes the meme that O is winning the EC regardless of Gallup, to induce people to back the perceived winner, Obama.
I want to be optimistic, but as stupid as people are quoting Intrade and such, it really depresses me that a late push by O in tight race fueled by mass psychology could help the socialist ticket out.
Call me an Eeyore, but…
#141 I can. Read 1984 by George Orwell. That should give you an idea….
-Polaris
WE WANTED TO ENGAGE
TO GOOD TO CHECK…
Debbie Wasserman Schultz nearly arrested in altercation with police in front of a South Florida polling place.
#146 Pity it was only ‘nearly’.
-Polaris
So Romney will be in NH Monday night. Of course its close to Boston but even so its I doubt he would do that if he thought NH was lost.
If only Santorum had won the primary! This race would be OVAH!!!
#148 I rate Romney’s chances right now at ‘decent’ actually.
-Polaris
149 – LOL
Early BLS report: 500,000 jobs created, UE rate drops to 7.4%!!!!!
OMG…..all hail Lord Obama!!!
At this point I doubt the MSM will be able to depress the R turnout, but maybe they can still help the D turnout.
#149 *snort* Yeah, but I don’t think we’d be very happy right now, nor do I think the country could afford it….but you’re right. With Santorum, the race would be over right now…..
My problems with Romney were strictly on technical issues mainly involving threading the needle of keeping GOP loyalty while appealing to the middle. I have to say that Romney has impressed me…and this is from someone who was skeptical.
-Polaris
I heard 1,600,000 and 6.5%!!!!!!!
cannot imagine a Supreme Court with 4 Obama appointees ”
Don’t you read the WEC moron posts?
Obama = Romney
I hear they won’t release the numbers but will put out a memo that “they are very good”.
154 – Polaris
Win or lose, I think Romney has run a solid campaign. If he losses, we will disparage him forever. That is just the way things work.
BLS PULLS OUT OF EMPLOYMENT REPORTS; OVERWHELMED BY NUMBER OF JOBS BEING CREATED. WILL START COUNTING SPAIN’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND GOING ON AIR IN ATHENS.
#153 The problem is contrary to popular rumor, Obama’s senior campaign staffers aren’t stupid and B Clinton certainly isn’t! They can add and subtract as well as we can.
They KNOW that if Obama remains underwater with Indies and GOP turnout is anyhthing close to 2004 levels, they lose. I’ve done the math earlier. That’s even assuming Obama keeps his entire 2008 turnout (which he won’t).
-Polaris
#137 – This is the biggest news of the day, even bigger than the wonderful Roanoke poll out of Virginia.
Why are all these chucklehead losers here still talking about Chris Christie, Sandy, and OMG the sky is falling… Romney’s gonna lose the Electoral College vote.
RCP moving Team Romney back into the lead is HUGE NEWS. It will depress the left greatly today.
LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!!
2M and 5%!!!!!!
“If only Santorum had won the primary! This race would be OVAH!!!
Sure would.
Obama would have won 40 states and carried the House.
I think Romney could win indies by 10 here. That probably will not be enough to win the state. But could make it interesting.
- Ralston tweet.
Open offer,
Justrand – Justmary
If you guys can keep WEC contained on the island, I will offer heartfelt apologies to the big 3
Justrand
Justmary
JudyT
You have to keep him contained though for at least a year.
WEC & Acroso should start a website together don’t you think?
I don’t see anything about Gallup showing Romney up by 7 today.
#158 True but right now I am confident. Frankly I am nearly serene, and looking at the body language of Romney and his surrogates they seem confident and yes…also almost serene.
They KNOW that they have done everything that could possisbly could be done to win has been done and done well. We are rapidly getting to the point where it’s all up to the voters.
I hope I remain intellectually honest enough in the (imho unlikely) even that Romney does lose, his campaign can’t be realistically faulted…but as you say that will happen anyway.
-Polaris
WRONG JASON!!!!
Santorum would be up by 10 in CO, OH, PA, WI, IA and 5 in MN, MI, NV and it would be a tossup in NY, CT, WA and OR.
These are facts!!!! (Dead ender style)
Total fog of war now
Everything has been said I suppose
Ralston is not liking the early vote numbers in Nevada, and is giving himself some wiggle room.
Go big or go home:
23 million leave work force. 0% Unemployment rate.
Polaris
Mitt has done everything that can be done, I agree
I bet Romney will do at least 8 points better in PA than Santorum would. I doubt Santorum would get 40%.
FU parakeet. You are the reason why Perry isn’t the nominee. He would be up in all 50 states now (even better than Santorum who would only be leading in 43). The other R’s saw your stuff on Perry posted here and used it against him. Thanks for NOTHING! I hope you choke on your cracker, Polly.
MD, clearly Santorum would not be up 10 in OH. I assume this is a swipe joke at me.
We will never know how Santorum would have fared, contrary to all the moderates insistence that he’d win 10 state, I rather doubt that since he had good people skills and he likely would have hit Obama on Benghazi in all 3 debates in depth and would tout his ME understanding via his past access on the issue. It turned out that due to Sandy, Romney lost a national audience to hit O on Libya, and he will not get that back with the time remaining.
I never supported Romney originally, but for the love of Pete, ANY Republican should be winning easily, given these conditions economically, etc.
Romney has NOT made mistakes, and has NOT (other than the video gaffe over the 47%)come across in any way as a rich out of touch guy and has actually looked reasonable.
That’s why these polls make no sense.
I am not blaming Romney. It just does not make sense. Gallup cannot be this wrong (if they are correct on the race) with this kind of disconnect in the swing states.
I want to be cautiously optimistic, but people are very stupid. And herd like bandwagoneers. If it’s close, will that be a factor?
Again, I am a lot more impressed with Romney over HIM as a candidate than I ever was before. Initially, I simply had to vote for him (and did vote early for Romney in my state!) since my choices lost in the primary.
It amazes me that MY vote was more FOR Romney than I suspected it would be as opposed to merely being essential to go against O.
I just hope Americans are not as stupid as I suspect they could be. I suspect you feel the same…
Santorum would have won California by 70%. Even San Francisco would have voted overwhelmingly for him because of his strong economic populism and devout faith.
174 – Based on what? Santorum losing the state by 17 in 06? Based on independents hating him with a passion? Based on women hating him?
Oh please.
#171 Lol! HECK yes. In NV, if Ralston admits that Romney *might* take the state (or make it ‘interesting’) then you know the NV early vote numbers are ugly for the Dems.
-Polaris
177
Correct Bitter – the gays, minorities, Democrats, Independent women and everyone else would have stormed the polls for Santorum. Sigh. What a missed opportunity.
” (Charles Dharapak/AP)
Romney focused on 11 states in last 6 days
Polls show the GOP challenger in a dead heat in many battleground states, including Florida and Ohio.”
AP is calling Ohio a dead heat.
179
Santorum would have been ahead by 12. I know that because of previous polls.
ok, they have given up… what axel says is true if it is 2008 but this is not 2008… when you’ve lost Axel.. this thing could be ugly
@daveweigel Axelrod on independents in swing states: “We may not win these voters but we may not have to win these voters.”
Independent women would have gone to Santorum by 30?
Wow.
#181 That’s actually progress if you use your AP/MSM translator. When MSM/AP saids “dead heat” you should read it as “the evil republicans have a narrow lead within MOE but we don’t want to say it”
-Polaris
I guess my work here is done. Have at it, mf-ers.
183. I guess there are more Democrats out there than anybody thought.
Hey 186, f–k off.
Mark – that is interesting to say the least. “may” is the key word. Within that lies doubt.
Gang, I really hope to see poll movement in OH to Romney over the next few days. I am not counting PPP. However, SUSA, MD, ARG, RAS and so on. Would like to see at least half show a Romney lead.
@NumbersMuncher
PPP poll for HCAN (D) has Obama up 5 in Ohio. Sample is D+9. 4% more than 08. In a wave election. Dem firm is in line with Q…
You wanna go, llama boy?
#183 I agree. That the white flag of surrender if I’ve ever heard one. Obama’s people KNOW they won’t get a +7 D partisan advantage this time out…not with republican enthusiasm the way it is. That means they HAVE to get Indies. We know it; they know it.
-Polaris
if Axlerod is saying their gonna lose independents, then they must see it in their own internals
fuuck obama
fuuck the msm
fuuck all the marxists
fuuck the moronic dead enders who make this harder
fuuck suburban women in PA
fuuck Axelrod
fuuck Biden
fuuck Cutter
fuuck the truce!!!
Author…
I’m sure you saw this…
Per Breitbart and early voting in Florida vs. 2008…
But a Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, Democrats held a 134,774-vote lead in Florida. As of yesterday. Democrats led by less than 41,000 – a nearly 70 percent drop.
The Obama campaign does not dispute those numbers.
#193 Concur. Absolutely concur. Even suggesting it gives way too much away. It means the only way Obama wins is if it’s a D+7 Dem wave election.
Does that bear any resemblance to what we’re seeing in the real world? Yeah, me neither.
-Polaris
Once again, we will never know about what the numbers are Santorum vs Romney. Santy could be winning now with his better ability to connect with voters in PA, OR he could be losing. He could have won on Benghazi better, OR he could have not had a better resume (as we all agree is the case) on the economy to hit O in the debates with.
His lack of funding was the critical issue over his ideological aspects, arguably, since as I explained months ago, indies do not vote by force for the moderate, that’s just a myth.
Obama is not losing NOW with them over abortion extremeness or not on social issues, it’s the economy. If it were strong, his odds might look different.
It’s not relevant since HE is NOT the nominee, Romney is. All this talk does is stir up dissension among the GOP factions of Mods and social cons that is counterproductive.
I supported Santorum in the primary, but voted early FOR ROMNEY in the GE.
And as I said, I voted a lot more FOR Romney than I could have predicted, as opposed to merely having to to STOP Obama doing my part “for the team”. etc.
Insulting social cons who are planning to vote for Romney now does not help us. Romney voters (from the primaries) should be doing everything they can to encourage Santorum voters to vote Romney and to get their friends to, too.
Unlike Voter dot com will be working to put up a voter model tool tonight per twitter. If it gos up i’ll be playing w/ diff. turnouts for days.
175
lolololol
Right…
“and he likely would have hit Obama on Benghazi in all 3 debates in depth
Hello?
The first debate was domestic affairs, so no Benghazi and Obama got killed anyway.
#137, SusyQue, that story is several weeks old. The first clue should have been the reference to Gallup finding Romney up by 7% for the first time; the second should have been the fact that the Gallup release referred to therein came on a Thursday. http://conservativebyte.com/2012/10/romney-opens-up-7-point-lead-over-obama-as-electoral-map-begins-to-shift-2/#ixzz2AtNuFh5Q
MD/jason – I just saw the Truce running down the street in tears. What have you done? Noooooooooooooo!
I think we call all agree that NC is in the can for Romney. So lets look at the RCP average for the other states:
FL +1 for Romney. But take out PPP(D) and Quinnipiac and its +1.8 for Romney
VA +0.5 for Romney. But take out Quinnipiac and WashPost, and its +1.8 for Romney.
CO is a tie. But take out PPP(D) and Marist and its +1.4 for Romney
OH is +2.4 for Obama. But take out PPP(D), Quinnipiac and CNN, and its +1.2 for Obama.
WI is +2.3 for Obama. But take out Marist, and its +1.1 for Obama.
NV is +2.4 for Obama. But take out Marist and PPP(D) and its just +1.6 for Obama.
NH is at +1 for Obama. Take out a poll from New England College who has never polled the state before, and its TIED, even leaving in the PPP(D) poll.
IA is +1 for Obama, but had a recent outlier in there from Gravis who had very unrealistic internals.
So basically the eeyores are allowing Quinnipiac, Marist, CNN, and PPP(D) to discourage them. We have a very close election, but well within the grasp of Romney to win.
Friends,
At a neighbor’s house with a generator. I have no idea when we will get power back. The “good news” is that my neighbor works in NYC and the trains that he uses are closed today and maybe tomorrow.
I work in Fairfield, CT. It is immediately along Long Island Sound. They got major flooding and have canceled school all week. In fact, they were 93% in the dark this morning.
I just wish that I had power so that I could follow HHR all day.
The 49-47 numbers for Rasmussen should not change the averages too much.
Be safe, my friends.
Frank
Frank
Great news out of CO and early ballot returns…
Romney has extended lead to 35K…
Was at 27K yesterday…
Obama ahead at this point in 2008…
Will have county break down later…
Per SoS…
Total Votes: 1,076,103
R – 416,681 (38.7%)
D – 381,811 (35.5%)
U – 268,132 (25.0%)
In 2008, Democrats got out to an early lead, with a 40-33 advantage after the first week, but Republicans eventually closed the gap, slightly outnumbering ballots returned when it was all said and done.
This time around, Republicans have taken the early lead and appear to be building on that advantage as time goes on.
” fuuck suburban women in PA
Phone numbers?
#197 I agree with you this far: Swiping at each other over how other candidates might have done might make for an interesting hypoethical discussion, but let’s save it for AFTER the election, ok? What should be first and formost for everyone is giving President Obama a much deserved Pink Slip. As bad as the job market it, adding one more to the unemployed (Obama)wouldn’t break my heart.
-Polaris
RCP won’t count any of PPP’s HCAN garbage.
Speaking of Santorum has he made any effort in helping the cause in PA???
165.Open offer,
Justrand – Justmary
If you guys can keep WEC contained on the island, I will offer heartfelt apologies to the big 3
Justrand
Justmary
JudyT
You have to keep him contained though for at least a year.
-MD
Lol, MD…..not sure how we on the Island could make that happen, WEC’s relentless pessimism is more irritating than liberal trolls.
I’m starting to get negative waves as in 2008. People starting to hedge their bets.
“Que Sera, Que Sera” and all that.
The first person that says “we need to really get the senate in 2014 to block zero’s SC appointees gets beat with an ugly stick”.
Romney voters (from the primaries) should be doing everything they can to encourage Santorum voters to vote Romney and to get their friends to, too.
Here is my message to any Santorum voters who still need to be “encouraged” to vote for Romney – GFY. You are too stupid to waste time upon.
197 – LOLOLOLOLOL!
Oh wait, you are NOT joking?
Let’s go Mitt
Gold 201
The story is dated 10/31/12 for some reason
DW….the whole purpose of these phoney polls are to suppress our election day turnout.
Combine that with the coming BLS lies and you have the October Surprise.
Santorum is pretty much, thankfully, keeping his mouth shut. That helps. Stay quiet Rick. Please do not talk about spanking women.
MD #22. Shows just how stupid our side is when it comes to winning elections. If you are a conservative entity, you better know that you are picking a pollster that wants your guy to win and willing to press that view in their polls. We are dumber than dumb. I give the nyt and dailykos great credit hiring Nate Silver Hack and PPP. they have done more for dem morale and base building than all the obama ads. Very very effective at hurting our base and helping theirs. But not for that first debate they about had this race on the surface wrapped, up with all our pundits blasing Mitt with all they had. We are dumber than dumb. It is all about winning! Dems get it we dont.
Bruce – WEC’s act has to be wearing thin on the island, right?
209
Santorum isn’t all that popular in PA. He has tried to help in other states.
#216 Maybe, but there does seem to be a genuine (and IMHO delusional) school of thought amoung a lot of pollsters out there, that 2008 is the new normal. It’s not, but as long as many think it is, you’re going to get some badly skewed polls.
-Polaris
I saw indisputable proof this morning that any poll associated with NBC/MSNBC has to be garbage.
On the today show, their #1 halloween fact was that candy corn was the leading candy for the holiday. No Way.
I believe Lewis Black in that it is all recycled from the production run of 1912.
I don’t know how I got on his e-mail list but Santorum sends me daily e-mails on how Obama sucks and to vote for Romney. He sometimes shows up on a talk radio show in Philadelphia. If he is doing anything else, I haven’t heard it.
Hunter – where do you get those numbers from? It’s good news!!!
I believe RAS is dead on in Colorado. Give Romney most of the undecideds and he wins by about 4 points here.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama
Even Huffington Post has a Romney lead. Biggest lead to date.
Frank
Many are talking about the possibility of a split between the Popular vote and the Electoral College (especially Romney winning the Pop., but losing the Elec.Coll).
Starting to have a weird suspicion the election may actually come down to a state that isn’t on anybody’s true “swing state” map going the other way deciding the election:
Such as Minn. for Romney, or Arizona for Obama
The definitive tell:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/The-Streak-Republicans-Have-Won-Every-November-6th-Presidential-Election-Since-1860
Hugh
The problem is they hired a Dem with a highly suspect, OK discredited, methodology.
What needs to happen next time is that the NY Post needs to hire a R version of Nate S who will just slant everything to the R’s and we need more R polling firms who will add to our point total. Then we need to blast these polls like they are the MOST important things ever while NEVER mentioning the other polls.
Fire with fire.
Reese’s peanut butter cups are the king. Don’t even pretend there is a debate.
#226 Let me save you the suspense. If either candidate wins the PV by more than 1%, they win the EC as well.
-Polaris
Frank
My mom is from Fairfield and I went to Ludlow my freshman year. It pains me to hear that the flooding is bad there. Did it reach all the way out to the post road, or is it just near the beach?? how bad is it.
thanks
VictrC
MD – Well, it’s always been thin for me so I am not trying to speak for anyone else, but my impression is that most just try to ignore the posts.
Obama could win AZ in 2012?
Put
Down
The
Bong
227
Next you’ll want us to focus our Romney buttons on the TV election night ala BUD Light labels during a field goal attempt.
#195 – Rush just commented on those Florida early voting numbers.
Translates to a blowout for Romney in Fla. Could be as high as 56 to 58%.
Think of what that means for Connie Mack’s race for Senate? House races.
Alan Grayson gonner. And can we hope, Debbie Wasserman Schultz gone!
228 I completely agree. Now Polaris will disagree and I like Polaris, but on this issue he is wrong. It was beyond effective and cheap.
I just saw Ras has Brown 50 Mandel 48…. interesting.
#227 Well in that case we could have saved hundreds of millions of dollars and hours of untold angst.
The election is on 6 Novmember so Obama never stood a chance.
-Polaris
Polaris – Please explain that. If Obama got 100% of the vote in California he would easily win the popular vote by morethan 1% but could still lose the EC.
221 – can’t disprove your position, Polaris
I wasn’t necessarily picking AZ. But, with some states not being polled very much things could happen, like Indiana last time. And, Polaris, what if the Popular vote margin is LESS than 1%?
It’s just an odd feeling I have, that everybody is sooooooooooo focused on the set list of swing states, that wouldn’t it be a kicker if some off the map state turned out to be the decider?
Yes
We need to learn how to lie, how to make things up, we need scores of dishonest pollsters who find R+6 samples in CA and WA, we need con men and spokespeople who are grandmasters of mendacity
We need a Republican Bill Clinton
#236 Yeah I don’t think that’s the right way to deal with the problem, but I do agree it’s a problem. I’ve said enough on that already, so I’ll restate my agreement to disagree.
-Polaris
I see CO as a 3 to 4 point win. Hunter’s info pretty much confirms how I thought the state was going anyway. With CO, there are many combinations where we don’t need OH.
Let’s go back to the F&M poll on PA. A D+13 poll and that was RV. The LV screen showed a 4 point O lead as well but I am not sure what the percentage difference was between the LV and RV.
D+13 is awfully aggressive. I could believe D=8 without any problem and would accept it. This though, is too much.
Having said what I said in 244, the storm may help Obama a little with some low information, independent voters. Not sure of that though.
I need good news stat!
The agitprop is getting to me!
ARGGGGH!
–us
Actually, Hurricane Sandy has helped Romney is Ohio. Obama hasn’t visited Ohio yet. I don’t think visiting the Jersey Shore helps him in Ohio.
Christie is a Judas. Fat slob should become a democrat.
“a 7 point drop off. Replicate that across the U.S. and you have a narrow Romney PV win.”
actually, an across the board 7 point drop off and romney would lose.
he would only gain
NC, IN, FL, OH, VA and NE2
I love how Chuck Todd says that Romney going in PA is a sign he is down in OH. He cites some car ad as proof. I guess Chuck missed the ‘The First Time’ Ad along with Obama’s stellar campaign on Binders.
Nice article about Ohio by Byron York, including a little discussion concerning the crappy nyt/cbs/quinn poll.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/romney-team-sees-ohio-numbers-moving-their-way/article/2512191#.UJEeT4X2Ez5
246
Axelrod’s comment on independents was eye opening and very favorable to us I think
Also, an electoral college popular vote split has only occurred 5% of the time so it is very likely a Romney popular vote win gets us to 270
Ras CO R50-46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president
#247, LOL. Best REAL jenny post in a long time.
#239 Sure but it won’t happen that way. Look at the CD or County electoral maps (any of the recent ones will do). What you will find is that this country is remarkably mixed in terms of partisanship. Yes rural tends to be red and urban tends to be blue, but take deep blue Illinois…much of the stat is RED but is driven by deep blue chicago.
Likewise much of California is RED and even LA only leans Dem. It’s San Fransisco that pushes the state Deep Blue.
I point this out because these places tend to follow similiar places in the swing states which means that the PV and EC’s follow each other closely because the swing states are swing states because they form a reasonable aggregate of the rest of the country.
Of all the times the EC has gone against the PV winner, only once was the margin more than 1% (1876) and that was when much of the country was still under miliary occupation, and was when there was open corruption and military itimidation….in short the entire process smelled and was decided by a comission ultimately.
In recent history, 2000 pretty much shows us the maximum amount one candidate can win the PV (Gore…by half a percent) but still (barely!) lose the EC (Florida and Bush).
As for what if the PV is less than 1% If it’s less than 1% then all bets are off, but it won’t be. I am quite sure that the winner will have more than 1% margin. Well more.
-Polaris
90 % of the voters in this country have no clue who Nate Silver is. 90% of the people are too busy with their lives to worry about every polls that comes out. PPP, NY Times polls , and whatever Nate Silver thinks will have no effect in the big picture of what happens next Tues.
We tend to extrapolate our obsessions to rest of the people out there.
#252, beautiful. As the AWFUL White Sox announcer would say: “You can put it on the booooooooard…YES!!!!”
That RAS CO poll is from 10/22 old news.
Now, in their daily tracking write up today, they say Colorado on Monday was 50/47, but for weather reasons or whatever, they have not posted the poll, so who knows.
Now, can someone tell me if we will be getting new Gallup numbers today or not?
Question about Iowa….that seems to be a hard start for the GOP to get a hold on. I don’t know much about the state except I remember driving through it as a kid and seeing nothing but corn fields for hours. I have an image of the people there as being hard working, middle class, farmer types. It doesn’t seem to have the union influence of Ohio, MI, etc. The neighboring states of MO, NE, SD seem much more reliable GOP lately. What is the attraction to the DEM party there?
the dems think this election is a lock for them
just as convinced of the outcome as you are
one of you is very wrong
Once again…
I’m supposed to believe that EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE has moved towards Romney, but in such a way that Obama still has a 1-3 point lead in each of them? From WI (14 point Obama win) to CO (9 point Obama win) to NC (0 point Obama win), they have ALL moved towards Romney….except Obama is slightly ahead in every single one? This is what I’m supposed to believe from the state polling?
#259…should be a hard “state” for the GOP.
Unions are definitely big in parts of Iowa.
Well, there are scenarios for a 269-269 EV tie.
What if, ALL the swing states perform exactly the way they have to for a 269 tie, BUT, one of the “safe” Romney or Obama states flip by a 2004 Florida squeeker?! Wouldn’t that be a kicker?
Reading twitter today is a hoot. Every other one is a statement from Axelrod!! He is all out trying to push the meme that Romney is not really contesting PA, Minn, and MI; that they might lose independents but probably won’t need them; and that he will shave off his mustache if O loses Minn, MI, or PA.
Did someone say that MU was releasing a Wisco poll today???
@266 yes in 13 mins.
#248 actually, an across the board 7 point drop off and romney would lose.
he would only gain
NC, IN, FL, OH, VA and NE2
True, but if the partisan ID dropped across the board by 7, then Romney wins and wins fairly handily.
Not only that, but if you *combine* even a five point decrease in the D+7 to D+2 which could happen just from Republicans showing up to vote again at 2004 levels, and Obama continues to be underwater with Indies, he also loses, even if he gets every Dem vote he got in 2008.
-Polaris
Lisab, our reasoning makes more sense. I would love to strap these pollsters to a lie detector and ask them if they REALLY think the electorate in those states will be more Dem this year than in 2008. That is the only way that they get those leads for O.
#265 I hope Axelrod isn’t very attached to his mustasche.
-Polaris
#267, thanks. That will be VERY telling.
If neither side gets 270 (the requirement is not a tie but that no one get 270), then Romney wins.
-Polaris
He should shave off his mustache the motherfuucker looks like Hitler
The ethanol bribe is pretty much the only real reason why IA is not a solid red state. From a values perspective, it should be ours. I still think we can win that state but I don’t feel as comfortable as I do with CO.
What is the attraction to the DEM party there?
=================================
Same reason as Vermont. Homogeneous population, the people naturally work hard and contribute to their communities, don’t have to worry about problems that suburbanites do like crime and people mooching off the system, so they spend all their time concerned about the environment and birth control.
Actually Axelrod reminds me of Snidely Whiplash from the old Dudley Dooright comic strip.
Oooh, now we have TWO polls to wait for in 7 minutes–MULAW and Gallup.
Sergeant Senility strikes again:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/biden-im-going-give-you-whole-load-today_659899.html
Looks like they are gonna make us wait a little longer:
MULawPoll ?@MULawPoll
Webcast for today’s poll results available at 12:15 CDT. http://go.mu.edu/TusShb
#258 I doubt it. I am still getting the Gallup annoucement that the tracking poll is suspended because of Sandy and there is no commetary about it resuming.
-Polaris
There is still time for a surprise! After Halloween and Sandy, possibly Friday and not the jobs report.
EML,
Good point in #261.
It makes no sense that Obama is up 1-3 in every swing state no matter the size of his victory there in 08.
It does seem a bit convenient.
lol true
Snidely Whiplash!
#277, is Gallup really coming out today??
Again, I cannot prove this so I won’t present it as a fact but in my opinion, Obama’s all in with gay marriage hurts him in IA more than any other “true” swing state (I don’t count NC anymore). It is one of those issues that is not spoken about much but could prove to be the difference. Win CO, WI and OH and Ohio can go f themselves!
Ok, JK. Cream soda
No gallup today. I think we may not see gallup until Friday or Saturday.
No link yet:
ADP Mistakenly Sends Out September Job Creation Number Early, Revising Number to 88,200 From 162,000 Initially (Story Developing)
“Win CO, WI and OH and Ohio can go f themselves!”
Huh? I assume you meant NH in place of “Ohio”?
#286 That wouldn’t suprise me at all.
-Polaris
The above was from CNBC
#288, I mean in place of “OH”
Iowa is trending away from Obama and Dems.
Look at the data (link) below…
http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/early-voting-numbers-democrats-heading-in-the-wrong-direction/
Live in Eastern Iowa…personal observation is I agree w/ trends. Using incorrect D/R/I.
Iowa is very fiscally responsible…thats the key here.
Comments?
#287 If that’s accurate, then the BLS report is going to be *ugly*
-Polaris
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49620569
MULaw has traditionally started their broadcast at 1:15 EDT and it usually takes 10-15 minutes for them to actually give the numbers.
# 231
“Frank
My mom is from Fairfield and I went to Ludlow my freshman year. It pains me to hear that the flooding is bad there. Did it reach all the way out to the post road, or is it just near the beach?? how bad is it.
thanks
VictrC”
Victor,
The water got very close to the Old Post Road, where the town hall is located.
Did you go to TMS, RLMS, or FWMS?
Frank
292
Yea, I hope you are right.
I intended to type CO, WI and IA.
What is this guy gonna do if hes wrong?
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide
Yeah, no Gallup.
According to their main site, TIPP is not polling today either.
-Polaris
Dave , Mitt up 3 50-47 tip FLA back to red.
http://www.gravispolls.com/2012/10/florida-poll-results-10-31-2012.html
@301 Nelson leads 49-46 in that poll as well
Frank,
Sad to admit I went to MS in Bridgeport!! Freshman year at Ludlow then California for the rest, back to NYC (Columbia) for college & grad school. My mom grew up in Westport and then lived in Fairfield before moving to FL a couple years back.
Our good friends own a big piece of downtown and was wondering if the water made it up that high. I used to caddy at CC of Fairfield!!
Small world.
It was ADP that slashed Sept jobs. http://www.cnbc.com/id/49620569
I miss Frank and his 500 line posts. (sigh)
btw the UPI tracker has it tied again
In response to Axelturd’s bluster that he’ll shave his mustache if Zero loses PA, MI or MN,
Jake Tapper tweeted:
@jaketapper
How about just the left half o’ the stache? RT @TPMLiveWire: Axelrod Promises To Shave Mustache If Obama Loses PA MN MI livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/axelrod-…
Tapper know sumthin?
What was UPI yesterday?
#301 Gravis is claiming a DRI of
43D/35R/22I…yeah you read that right D+8 and he STILL has Romney up by three.
That means Romney is up and well up in Florida.
Hint Indies: 50-44 Romney which is consistant with most other polls.
-Polaris
WN – unless I am totally misreading Iowans (and that is possible), I would say that, as a state, they are right of center on social issues as well.
Univ Of Cin – OH Prez
Obama 48%
Romney 46%
Brown 49%
Mandel 44%
http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op103112.pdf
Geez, if I’m reading that Gravis FL poll correctly, they sampled 43% Dems to 35% Rs and still Obama only got 47% of the vote.
311 – Am I reading the internals wrong? Seems to indicate a D+0.
Morris thinks that Brown and Mourdock lose but Smith wins.
Let’s see.
#311, BAH. Didn’t they just have it tied?
311, Booo, it was tied 49-49 a week ago.
#311 Looks like U of Cincy got a bad sample. The DRI is reasonable at D+1,but they are claminging that Indies now favor obama 46-32 (+14).
That is a massive turn around in less than a week from their prior poll and not consistant with the other public polls of Ohio.
I smell bad sample.
-Polaris
Good poll for Romney in Ohio. Down 2 but Obama under 50 again. Give Romney 2/3 of the undecided and its a tied race.
The U-Cincy poll has a DRI between D+0 and 1, but they had a massive swing in Indies. I think it’s a bad sample since indies wouldn’t have a 30pt swing in a week (at least I wouldn’t think so).
-Polaris
“#311 Looks like U of Cincy got a bad sample. The DRI is reasonable at D+1,but they are claminging that Indies now favor obama 46-32 (+14).” The regional numbers also look weird, but hey.
The Cincy Enq/Ohio News poll that was 49-49 is a different poll than U of Cincy.
Frankly I prefer Obama at 48 than at 49.
CO, Iowa and NH are looking better for GOP
Nice RAS CO poll.
I am hearing good things about WI, OH and NV as well.
#321 True but U-Cincy had an Ohio poll just last week, and they refer to it in this poll as well.
-Polaris
The fact Morris is not backing off and using some excuse like the storm to change his prediction is encouraging. He had an out there and didn’t take it.
Where was last week’s U of Cincy poll? It’s not listed at RCP at all.
yeah right
Morris will either be a megahero or a SuperDumbFuqq
If there is a break towards the challenger we will see it this weekend. Any move towards Romney this weekend will be the kiss of death for Obama.
#326:
From the U-Cincy poll, page 3:
October 25-30
16-21 13-18* 18-23* (Latest)
Barack Obama 49% 51% 49% 48%
Mitt Romney 46 46 49 46
Gary Johnson — – — 2
Other (individual candidates receiving
less than one percent) — – — 2
Other 2 1 1 –
Don’t know 2 2 1 2
(N=) (808) (825) (976) (1141)
*Ohio Newspaper Poll
– Not Asked
Sorry if the formatting is off.
-Polaris
Cincy poll added Gary Johnson this time. Last time he wasn’t included. What bastards these pollsters are.
51-43 Barry in Wisco MULaw poll. UGH.
Ok. Now it’s time for me to panic.
MULawPoll ?@MULawPoll
Obama up by 8 over Romney (51% to 43%) in new MU Law School Poll . They were at 49-48 two weeks ago. #mulawpoll
Just read the Ed Morrissey thread on Pennsylvania over at HotAir.com. Boy, the HA-ers are bullish on PA. Internals suggest Dems way, way, way oversampled. Those on the ground in PA say Republican enthusiasm way up, especially in southeast PA and Bucks County.
Some saying under-sampling of Indys in poll – readjusted means Romney up by 5, easy.
#332 Do you have a link/internals yet?
-Polaris
47-43 for Baldwin. Good Lord.
OMG Neveda early voting stats
http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2500
I hope this holds
234K D early vote 44.27%
199K R early vote 37.57%
96K I early vote 18.16%
Wow that’s a gap 6.8%. The voter registration gap between the parties is 7.2%. The GOP has never done better then its party registration edge.
In 2008 in early vote the Ds had a 19% edge compared to a 9% registration edge. As a plus the indie vote is really zooming up there.
Great news for the GOP in NV
Mu LawPoll is UGLY
Obama 51
Romney 43
Baldwin 47
Thompson 43
Oof, that MU law poll is UGLY for team Good Guys
#334 Not to put a damper on their enthusiasm but low Indy results in PA polls is likely right. PA punishes the Indy voter and pushes party registration hard. I wouldn’t be suprised at all if the number of PA Indies wasn’t much more than 10%.
-Polaris
Baldwin shows us her internals and it’s up by 3, and other statements that you don’t want to see.
#335, nothing yet.
They are SLOWLY releasing the internals. Here is a link to web cast:
http://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/5897dddc963b43c2837f3eb819a9ebfe1d
@MULawPoll
Poll chief Charles Franklin: Those who follow politics closely are most likely to really vote. #mulawpoll
#342 Well please keep us informed. I’d like to fisk that poll.
-Polaris
#343 And in other news, water is wet (unless frozen).
-Polaris
@MULawPoll
It’s to Obama’s advantage and Romney’s disadvantage if the less interested people turn out, Franklin says. #mulawpoll
So according to MULAW the number of undecideds got bigger in the end?!
Romney cuts lead to 2 (48-46) amongst “most interested likely voters”. So we got that going for us.
#346 Which is another way of saying that Republicans have the enthusiasm/motivated vote advantage in WI this time out.
The man needs to come with his own translator.
-Polaris
Romney is indeed underperforming in the auto heavy parts of Ohio. He is even underperforming the GOP Senate candidate in NW Ohio.
56-37 for Barry amongst early voting in MULaw poll. Red flag of a bad sample??
#350 Source?
It’s all Ohio then. Granted that Romney also wins Iowa and New Hampshire.
#351 That depends on the percent. If it’s in line (EV) with the SOS figures, then no that is not necessarily a sign of a bad sample. However if it’s much more, than it probably means the LV screens got bolluxed up….AGAIN.
-Polaris
I have never had too much hope for WI to begin with, but according to what is written in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking post, he is saying WI was 49-49 on Monday and Colorado was 50-47 on Monday.
Those polls are not listed on his website on their own or in the RCP averages.
Is this just a weather thing and they are indeed new polls? Rasmussen had CO 50-46 and WI 49-49 last week. Should we believe that these are newer polls done on Monday night?
Barry up 46-41 in indies in MULaw poll.
The Ohio poll just out shows this.
351.56-37 for Barry amongst early voting in MULaw poll. Red flag of a bad sample??
====================================
Only 3% have voted in WI.
Yet we still have to remember that prior from their penultimate poll, they had Obama ahead by 14! After the Ryan pick! And this is the only poll from WI in two weeks besides Ras.
#346 That isn’t THAT much of a suprise in WI. WI has notoriously liberal Indies.
-Polaris
If O wins Ohio it will be because he took money from other parts of the country and gave it ti a swing state. How could this be combated??
#360 refers to #356 not #346
This MU poll has had wild swings every month. After nailing the June 5th election they’ve just been nuts. Does anyone really believe its gone from Obama +1 two weeks ago to +8 now? No way.
Also, right before the MU poll Tammy released an internal poll showing her up 3.
Yeah, it’s ALL about Ohio.
#358 Given that only 3% have actually voted early in WI, yes, this seems to be a likely bad sample.
-Polaris
#357 The Ohio poll also shows Obama winning Indies by 14 in contradiction with virtually every poll out there and is even at least a 20pt swing from the same poll about a week before! Pardon me if I am skeptical. As Ohio Joe said as well, the regional samples look ‘off’ as well.
I’m thinking they got a bad sample. It happens.
-Polaris
Pardone,
What is this MU Law poll for?
#367 WI
@367 WI
What does this mean:
“New surveying Monday night finds Romney ahead of the president 50% to 47% in the key swing state of Colorado. That marks little change from a week ago, and the state remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
In Wisconsin, surveying from Monday night finds the race remains tied at 49%, just like last week. Wisconsin, too, is still a Toss-Up and is critical to Romney’s fortunes if he loses Ohio.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Are we to assume these are new polls that Scott Rasmussen is just too wet to post up with graphics on his site?
Changed my prediction. Except for the national polling, no non-Rass state polling is going to look good.
Wait for more bad news in NH from Suffolk and UNH, then Iowa. Without those, no chance.
#370 THat’s my take. Ras has Co and WI polls with those numbers ready (as in data collected) but they are still trying to put the pieces back together from Sandy…and so are operating with lower efficiency than normal.
-Polaris
In 2004, Kerry was leading the majority of the OH polls in the week leading up to the election and dems were ready to pop the cork on the champagne, then on election night when Bush won the state by a little over 100,000 votes, they all couldn’t believe it. Here’s hoping for a repeat.
The pollsters this cycle have been a disgrace. And they can’t adjust their numbers for reasonableness. The skill of higher reasoning has left the USA.
Jay Cost had a good article this morning on the lack of normal distribution in the polling. How can a poll go from Romney up double digits among independents to Obama up double digits. A 30 point swing does not happen in a week.
Marquette got a bad sample. It seems to be occurring very frequently this year. The DNR problem is like Benghazi-Gate, don’t ask don’t tell.
373, wrong. All the polls except from the last week of the race had Bush up. It was two weeks before where Kerry was up.
MU sure looks like a Dem internal poll.
One more round of Ohio polling and if there’s 3 or more released by Friday, you can call the state then.
I doubt Gary Johnson will get 2%. Third party candidates usually underperform their polling numbers, because while people will state their preference to the pollster but when they actually vote they prefer to vote for someone who can win.
#373 Before MD leaps down your throat that is not true. Kerry lead in much/lost of the Ohio polls the week before that (so about 2weeks to 1week) before the 2004 election. There was a flurry of Bush polls for Ohio in the final days leading up to the election.
-Polaris
If Ohio is within the MOE I won’t be calling it.
Oh please, you people are going to jump off the cliff because of a Marquette poll? They have been all over the map. The race just is not as volatile as they have portrayed over the months. Rasmussen says WI is tied. I suspect that marquette showed the race tied two weeks ago just so they could show momentum for Obama at the end. But the real state of the race just doesn’t change as wildly from week to week as they suggest.
Dick Morris calls for an Obama landslide:
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/264935-here-comes-the-landslide
Everyone,
I can pencil in the Johnson/3PP vote right now.
1%
That’s what the combined third party candidates always get in the absense of an strong, nationally covered 3PP and even then the 3pp candidate almost always collapse in the polls come election day because American Voters know better than to “waste” their vote.
-Polaris
382 No, Wrong candidate.
So Ras still has WI tied.
The heck with the University poll.
In its last three(3) polls,Marquette had it Obama +14,+11,+1 and +8(oldest to most current).
I find the volatility hard to believe.
Yes,Marquette got the recall right,but even a broken clock is right twice a day!
Regional samples? See the pollsters have to get the demographics right at at least five different levels. Most of the talk here is on partisan profile. What about male-female, region, income levels, college-high school, ethnic profile, religious profile, etc.
Romney landslide you mean.
The GOP ought to be running ads, targeted at young voters, informing them that Gary Johnson will legalize marijuana.
Why does a law school do polls anyway?
384, tongue-in-cheek. You know when he calls for a Romney landslide, the opposite will happen.
Only a fool would vote for Gary Johnson.
We know that because of idiots like WEC and Bunu.
382
Are you being facetious?
389. Heh…
Its funny how often this has happened, and how many times I have posted what I post below:
OHIO
University of Cincinnati
Bush 46 [Actual: 51]
Kerry 48 [Actual: 49]
10/17/2004
WHOOPS
Then today:
Romney 46
Obama 48
So once again, we have seen this movie before.
#392 You know that’s an idea…we should encourage WEC and Bunu to campaign far and wide for Johnson. If that doesn’t destroy Johnson’s candidacy, then nothing would.
-Polaris
390
It’s probably an elective course where they hang out with lefty poly sci majors from another part of the school.
If Rasmussen is correct, Romney is at 50 percent in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
That will be the election.
I think we have VA, NC, IN, FL and CO back from 2008.
Competitive in NH, NV, IA, a shot at WI.
We still need Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.
Frankly, IA, WI, NH and NV (not to mention MI and PA) don’t matter.
Either we will win with FL, OH, and VA (plus one more which is a near certainty if we win OH) or we won’t win and it won’t matter anyway about any other state.
Of the 5 national polls taken in the past week, O is only up in 1 by 1.
Most of the talk here is on partisan profile.
===================================
Partisan profile is an accurate predictor of how an election will turn out. Male-female, region, income levels, etc are not. And the sample sizes for most (not all) of those subgroups are too small to be meaningful.
It is clear Obama will have a bump in the polls with Sandy and all. But Romney will probably start to make up ground by middle of next week
#403 Why is this clear?
-Polaris
Has anyone heard about this? Just found on battleground watch comments:
A new poll shows Mitt Romney with a seven point lead over President Obama in Florida. The poll by the Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, and Tampa Bay Times shows Romney with 51% percent to Obamas 44% with a 3.5% margin of error.
Mr. Polaris – any thoughts on where RASS national will be tomorrow?
Is Virginia in play again? Without it, mitt is toast.
With Ohio and Wisconsin out of reach, he’ll need to carry Colorado NH Iowa and Nevada.
I am not buying what Marquette is selling. Their polls are like roller coasters!!! I am thinking their recall poll was a “blind pig finding an acorn one”. They got lucky but apparently all their magic gone.
If anyone can post D/R/I plus the votes for each party and indies please post here.
DW It is among Hispanic voters in Florida. Good news!
Sandy will help Obama?
That’s your last hope?
What happened to hope and change, post-partisanship, bringing people together, and all the garbage from 2008?
Now, 4 years later, the Messiah has to hope a hurricane will get him elected?
#406 Well Ras has shown a remarkably stable string of R+3-4 results with Romny hitting 50 until the Sunday sample rolled on Monday morning with it’s weird indies. Given that the number hasn’t moved the two days since I think we can assume R+3 or 4 days rolled on since.
Thus I predict Romney+3 (to be conservative) MAYBE Romney+4 and the Indies go back to normal.
-Polaris
Dailly Caller reports guess who will be in WI tomorrow. So much for law school polls.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/31/obama-to-leave-white-house-thursday-campaign-in-wisconsin/
What about the jobs numbers….is that being manipulated too?
How long must we endure this angst caused by mistrust, lies, manipulation by ooo and his crowd.
BF stop trying to slit your wrist. OH is not gone for Mitt,no clear evidence of that. There is evidence WI could be. As for VA, Mitt will win it. book it. Remember im no Pollyanna.
#413 Marquette Law School needs to stick to teaching law I think.
-Polaris
Only conclusion to be made: state polling is really bad this year.
Nothing but Obama and Christie on the local radio stations today, every thirty minutes.
407. Hey moron, why is Ohio “out of reach”?
I see Ras Romney +2 and Obama + 2 in the U. Cincy poll.
407.Is Virginia in play again? Without it, mitt is toast.
With Ohio and Wisconsin out of reach, he’ll need to carry Colorado NH Iowa and Nevada.
Comment by BayernFan — October 31, 2012 @ 1:58 pm
Uh, NO, its not. Where in the world did you get an idea that it was? Romney is winning Independents in the Quinny poll by 22 points, and they jacked the sample like crazy to twist a two point Obama lead. Then the Roanoke poll came out. Their last poll was Obama +8. Their sample is also skewed some toward the Democrats, but they still have Romney UP FIVE POINTS. VA is Romney’s.
405, old poll
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/11/3045712/poll-strong-debate-helps-mitt.html
As our side panics, there’s going to be useless anecdotes and BS polls with no sources that will make us happy. Like 2008.
bio ill say it again – either state polls are wrong or party id and enthusiasm samples are wrong
Marquette Poll says voters trust Barry more on economy. Even some of the trashier, recent polls have had Romney up in this category.
If it looks like trash and smells like trash…..
Mitt’s in Florida all day today.
That’s good about Virginia.
Ohio is out of reach because the polls say so and have said so forever. Even Rove said that Ohio is one tough nut for romney. They are buckeyes. What do you expect.
#420 I’ll make the question even more stark:
Do you believe that the electorate and election will be like 2008 again?
Yes or No.
If you do, then Obama is certainly going to win, and there is little Romney can do about it.
If you do NOT (and I don’t for very solid reasons backed by empirical data), then many of the state polls that rely on 2008 turnout models are wrong. Period.
-Polaris
@422 to lock it down. Mitt wins Mac States + NE-2 + IN + NC + FL + VA. book it. Im ready to say the same about CO. Im a pessimist too, but this sudden urge to declare an O landslide doesnt match up to numbers/polling
Bayern just seems to have some kind of personal vendetta against Ohio, as an entity, in general.
It goes far above and beyond all the ribbing I give Wisconsin.
414 – Don’t give up on WI based on one university poll. This state will be very close. I am not saying Romney wins it, as it will be close, but he very well could win. The unions dragged every corpse to the polls they could to vote against Walker, and they failed. Badly.
WI would be a very easy state to skew if you wanted to. Just avoid calling Waukesha and Washington counties as much as you should and the poll skews quickly and easily.
“Ohio is out of reach because the polls say so and have said so forever.”
O is under 50%, avg in the MOE and has 1 poll out there showing Mitt ahead and hitting 50%. No clear evidence OH is gone.
Have I said its all party ID/turnout and indie votes today?
Just a note several pollters (not named RAS or Gallup) have shown national party ID moving between 3 and 6% towards the R side.
Yet in the last few days either Quinnie or CBS or CNN or PPP or Marquette have show the various states moving 2 to 5% more D by party ID. So state polls have shown OH, NH, FL, NC, VA, WI, Iowa, CO and NV becoming several % or more D by party ID in 2012. Yet the most national polls are R party ID shifts. What gives? If 20% of the nation, the tossup states, are moving more D can you imagine the shifts in the other states? They must be massively shifting towards the GOP?
Naturally I don’t buy the state shifts to D side in state wide polls.
I teach at a University and would not trust any polling popping up from them, especially if they are new to the job. My university all of a sudden has a political group that is conducting polling this year. Cripes!! Who would believe anything they say? Run by super liberals and having grad students conduct the polls and analyze them. What could go wrong?
I guess Obama must not believe MU poll!!!
What we have to hope for is that there are not a ton of people on the right, now being counted as Independents, who are still saying:
“I am a Tea Party/conservative first and not a Republican.”
423 – Didn’t you see the 2004 U of Cincy poll I showed above? Had EXACTLY the same numbers Bush/Kerry in 2004. They were wrong then, and they will be wrong now.
#430 What could go wrong?
Lol! Heck yes. It would be like asking those same grad students to rebuild your engine…..which equally abysmal results.
-Polaris
@402: my point was that polling is a complicated business and it is not easy to get it right. In fact it is very easy to get it wrong. It is easy to miss it by 10% or more if you’re not careful and diligent.
One more thing, HHR’s favorite person Nate Silver had for a brief moment Obama’s chance of victory …. 114%.
Silver has gone Canadian.
#433 Not only that but the U-Cincy poll when from having a solid Romney lead with Indies (like most polls) to having Obama win Indies by 14 in just a week (and in fact that’s enough to explain Obama’s lead right there).
Does anyone believe such a shift with Ohio indies happened for real or that they were the only ones to see it?
I think not. Far more likely they got a bad sample.
-Polaris
Spend it in Ohio….
A late surge of support and months of restrained spending have left the Republican National Committee flush with cash with little time to spend it — $68 million as of Oct. 17, which was nearly seven times the amount the Democratic National Committee had in the bank.
Adding in the cash from other presidential campaign committees, the mismatch still was stark: $156 million for Mitt Romney and his GOP allies to $94 million for President Obama and his allies. State Republican parties also had 50 percent more cash than their Democratic counterparts, according to an analysis by The Washington Times.
It’s likely that means a surge of GOP spending is coming. What’s unclear is what form it will take, and RNC officials declined to tip their hand.
“I can guarantee you we will spend it all and wisely,” Reince Priebus, chairman of the RNC, told The Times.”
Taking a break. Ill be glad when this is over. I LOATHE close elections.
Look at the RCP map with no tossups…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
Even with all the skewed polls in there, Mitt just needs 13 more EVs to flip.
In other words, Mitt is getting close to actually winning the 2008 that McCain lost. I don’t think that in the end, Mitt can win the 2008 election, but thankfully, he won’t have to. Its 2012, not 2008.
The things keeping me a wee bit more optimistic than our resident eeyores:
1.) National poll. Duh. Solid-ish as a rock for Romney. Obama has never reached 50 at any point, stuck at 47-ish. Weird as hell. Bush in 2004 at this point was cleaning up in nationals.
2.) Surprise lack of polling. Very few than what I’ll expect and the ones that do do them are overwhelmingly from the left side–newspapers, TV, colleges and PPP. Few variety means consistent bias towards one side. Biased towards persistent assumptions of record high Democrat turnout.
“Ohio is out of reach because the polls say so and have said so forever.
Really? What polls are that?
I see extremely close polling in Ohio.
@427: so what you’re saying is if you don’t get your regional representation right you can skew your polls. Interesting.
#437 Actually I disagree. Further spending in Ohio should be IMHO at the GOTV level. Ohio has been saturated with advertising. I think most people in Ohio are completely tuning out ANY political ad, so it’s not a good investment for the dollar.
-Polaris
http://www.marionstar.com/article/20121031/NEWS03/310310009/Problem-found-board-elections?nclick_check=1
Ohio town early voter ote Romney, machine shows Obama.
2.)….bias leaks into states. BG state polling overhwhelmingly concentrated in Ohio. Not even funny. We don’tknow what’s up in other BG like NH, IA, and WI. You get one attention-whoring pollster and that’s that. Radio silence for weeks.
@440: almost collusion.
Prieubus has been a very good RNC chair. Hopefully that extra money will be mainly in GOTV.
The RCP average on October 31, 2008 was Obama + 5.8. He won by 4.5.
October 31, 2008.
RCP average Obama + 2.3.
How is Ohio gone for Romney?
#446 Almost?
442 – well there has to be a logical explanation for the volatility coming from marquette. The race has NOT changed in WI that radically throughout the last few months. So its clear the pollster is the problem.
Has Bayern been a plant all along?
I guess you can trust those southern Germans, excuse me, High Germans.
443. #437 Actually I disagree.
Disagree with what?
I didn’t say HOW to spend it.
From #437 Spend it in Ohio….
That’s the part I disagree with at this very late date (at least for TV ads and such).
-Polaris
OH out of reach? No. Based on the polling, it is fair to say that O is favored today but many of the polls are within MOE now. So, a big time GOTV could propel Romney to victory. It is going to have to exceed Bush’s in 04.
WI – Marquette is pretty good with WI polls but they can be volatile. Still think we have a shot but an outside shot. Win OH and the race is over.
As for Morris, I don’t trust him and I think with good reason.
Use the money in Ohio for transportation of people to the polls.
3.) On the ground. Republicans are beating the holy hell out of early vote and absentee ballot expectations. Just stunning. It’s almost like there’s a silent majority of them that’s just pumped to get rid of the clown.
The ADP announcement is a disaster for Friday.
457 – Disaster for who?
443 – 1000 percent agree. More ads there are a waste of time now. All $ to GOTV.
Ohio is saturated. The money should be spent on GOTV and to widen the playing field.
I was only two states off in 2004. I predicted that Wisconsin would flip for Bush and that he would lose New Mexico. The dems were able to steal Wisconsin yet again.
I don’t think they have as much a chance this year with the GOP controlling the executive branch entirely.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and maybe PA if Philly turnout is lowered enough by the storm are ripe for the picking.
PPP(D)
NORTH CAROLINA
Obama 49
Romney 49
And in the 2010 senate race
Marshall 50
Burr 47
I warned everybody for MONTHS now that in the end PPP(D) would not try to get it right in the end.
It ALL comes down to GOTV now. The jobs report and everything else is now meaningless.
#461 Obviously Jensen hasn’t seen the early vote coming in for NC. It’s u-g-l-y for Obama. Romnney well well win NC by 10.
-Polaris
461
That was a July or August poll.
#464 ‘May well win by 10 I mean’
I was typing about the Marshall poll. I don’t take PPP seriously now. The univ of cin poll while not great news isn’t world ending either.
#467 Agreed and I would agree even if the Internals were more normal for Ohio, but that Obama +14 for indies is a big red flag. I think the U-Cincy poll has some bad sample data.
-P:olaris
Folks, this is one of the biggest Psyops operations in recent memory.
Consider the facts:
Even with skewed polling, Mitt is at 257 EV’s in the RCP State Average.
Mitt Leads the RCP national average.
Obama’s approval in the last 3 national PPP polls – a Democrat firm – was 44, 45, 44.
Mitt’s average national lead with Independents – 10ish
Mitt’s average Ohio lead with Independents – 10ish
Republican enthusiasm is TEN POINTS higher than Dem enthusiasm even in the Quinn polls this AM.
The Democrats CANNOT increase their own base’s enthusiasm – they can only try to tamp down ours.
ALL WEEKEND you will hear “it’s over, Obama’s a lock, it’s done, Mitt has no path”.
A) Consider the source. B) Consider the motives.
Romney will win. Unless the laws of politics have been utterly inverted, Romney will win.
And it won’t be that close. Now get out and work for a mandate.
The one worry I have is that people confuse enthusiasm with turnout. The 04 electorate wasn’t overly enthusiastic for Bush but they had turnout.
465 – no, its new
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
461- It’s sad to see that Marshall’s ads have finally kicked in. Zero may need her to drag him across the line.
I hope Burr can slip by, but it’s going to be tough in this environment.
Yougov…
Obama 48-47
Get this…
sample is 63% white, 23% 18-29yo
#470 True and I made that same point when gallup showed a spike of Dem enthusiasm after the DNC. However, if we look at the early vote and compare GOP totals today vs 4 or even 8 years ago, I would argue that in this case enthusiasm is driving up turnout.
So while not the same, I think it’s clear they are at least related.
-Polaris
PPP NC
48D 36R 16I
Mitt wins Rs 89-11
Obama wins Ds 78-21!
Obama up with Is 49-46
Riiiiight
PPP(D) is just a caricature of itself.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49620569
dw for o, see what happened.
#473 Laughable. Absolutely laugable even if you weigh demographically by census rather than known voting pattern.
-Polaris
and for the first time in a long time, electionprojection has the GOP back to gaining in the house:
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/house12.php
52% have already voted in NC, per PPP.
Per the State Board of Elections, it’s around 43% of the 2012 vote.
Sorry, 43% of the 2008 vote.
““Ohio is out of reach because the polls say so and have said so forever.”
That is one of the stupidist comments I have ever read here.
If Romney wins I will attend a non C&E Mass.
YouGov is internet and will be excluded from RCP.
The last Indiana poll I see is Rasmussen from 10/11. When was the “gaffe” debate? Interesting that nobody has polled this race since.
The last Indiana Senate poll I see is Rasmussen from 10/11. When was the “gaffe” debate? Interesting that nobody has polled this race since.
if romney doesn’t win, he did nothing wrong. he’s run an excellent campaign. america has changed. today, it’s a socialist nation and that’s not romney’s fault.
Why are people giving credence to a known Donnelly voter RE: Ohio? Ignore him and focus on the races at hand.
479
Seems like the state results (House races) are beginning to match national sentiment.
Here’s read it and weep time folks!!!
U of Cincy finds electorate in OH to be exactly even between Ds and Rs.
That’s exactly what RAS is estimating.
None of this +6D or +7D or +8D or +9D or +10D junk.
University of Cincy finds its the electorate to be even between the parties.
Of course U of C finds only 32% of indies support Romney. Oh really?
+14 % lead for Obama among indies.
This is a model, per cincy, for a 3 to 5% Romney win in Ohio.
Michael D,
I have to agree there. A poll comes out with Romney down 2, well within MOE and it is “out of reach”? That is ignorant. Not out of reach. I also don’t buy the other side from a couple of Ohioans here who state that Romney is up 5.
All GOTV now. Nothing else really matters anymore. Even the jobs numbers this Friday are nothing but noise now.
486 – http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
IN senate has been polled.
RCP not including Roanoke, but adds Quinn.
Will there be anymore battleground projections or was the one from Monday the last one?
The have Obama winning the Idndys by 12%
Cant believe that!! If true its over!!
OH:
Obama/Romney: 48/46
unskewed: Obama/Romney: 51.7/46.5
Brown/Mandel: 49/44
http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op103112.pdf
491 – agreed. Escpecially considering the indy numbers in that U of cincy poll, and the comparison to their 2004 poll which had the same exact numbers Bush/Kerry.
493 – its in there
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html
@492 those are internal polls that RCP has not posted.
Polls that mirror 2008 are pointless. Can’t beleive the handwringing about them. 2010 did happen you know. And, if anything, our enthusiasm is even higher.
52 – 47 Romney…296 EV minimum. Been watching these close since 1980…it’s not the polls it’s what you sense out there. Even in Ca, the hopeless state of fools, there is zero enthusiasm for jughead. We got this, guys.
But I know you are mostly poll wonks here, nothing wrong with that and I appreciate all your work. Just make sure and vote!
D
When this is finished, I will rejoice in not having to see the words:
toast or ovah
or combinations and variations of the two.
I don’t think Bay is voting for Donnelly. I thought that was Mael.
If Bay is voting for Donnelly who voted FOR Obamacare, then he is dead to me like Mael.
National Journal has O up 5 nationally. This poll will be on RCP through election day.
Remember, do not be hasty with the indy number. If they are finding more even turnout with +0,+2 D, then some of the indies must be calling themselves republicans and the indy margin will be less. I certainly don’t believe that Obama will have a lead with indies in any swing state, but the double-digit indy lead you see in most polls would come down to a more reasonable high single-digit number.
That being said, even taking this into account, the u of c poll shows a Romney lead in actuality.
ok im watching some of the worst acting in my life right now, watching some cheap B horror flick on netflix called “Alligator X”
I’m not sure if it was just me, but I’ve been trying to get on the site all day and this is the first time I was able.
Site is slow probably much heavier traffic than normal…
ac1 have you gotten any new news on that India story?
503, would cancel out Gallup. Should still show slim R lead.
Party diff showed up as talking point in NJ poll write up:
In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).
Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/anger-aside-voters-favor-d-c-status-quo-20121031
504 – Could you explain that?
ac1 stop ignoring the India story questions, this is big news
#504 I disagree. If the Indies were really stealth GOP voters then we’d see a skew in conserivative Indies and an overall partisan ID skew towards the Dem with the same top lines. We aren’t.
-Polaris
Not sure how “bipartisan” the National Journal is, regardless of its claim.
Sure puts a lot of faith in the U of Ohio poll. Considering how much they party in Athens, seems they could have slipped a digit easy.
506.I’m not sure if it was just me, but I’ve been trying to get on the site all day and this is the first time I was able.
=====================================
Very slow today. Mobile takes forever. PC is slow too, but better. Not sure what the deal is. Dave W should look into it.
The national journal poll has a much smaller sample than Gallup or Rasmussen, just 713 LVs.
Maybe just effects of Sandy. Servers down somewhere.
487.if romney doesn’t win, he did nothing wrong. he’s run an excellent campaign. america has changed. today, it’s a socialist nation and that’s not romney’s fault.
Well, if that’s the case, then we non-socialists need to consider other options like splitting the Nation apart. Texas will lead the way. No doubt, Louisiana and Oklahoma will soon follow.
Romney for President or Texas Secession 2012!!
Eric – Brazoria County, TX
#511 Here is the theory: GOP self-Id dropped off a cliff in 2008 from 37% in 2004 to a mere 32% (one of the lowest ever in modern political history) in 2008. The idea is that a lot of former GOP voters now ID as Indies but vote as republicans.
We saw this theory before in 2010 to explain why the polls weren’t as bad for the Dems as they seemed. It was wrong then and it’s wrong now. As I said above, the cross tabs don’t work if you assume that a number of Indies are stealth republicans.
-Polaris
In that case we would miss you Eric. Hope you do well.
Gallup and Pew can’t be wrong in party ID. This is becoming ridiculous.
50-45 is nothing when the MoE is 4.5 pts.
In the Roanoke poll if you apply a more stringent screen for likely voters the Romeny lead becomes 54-41
Interesting piece:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/31/whats_behind_the_state-national_poll_divergence_115979.html
National Journal is finding +8D nationally!!!
More D then 2008?
Mercy have they not been watching early voting or voter registration stats or dozens of other national polls?
Mercy what a total joke.
The IN polling for the Senate race really does suck. On nothing but pure faith, I am holding out hope for a narrow Mourdock win. Between the idiot, moronic Lugarites (yes, even those who post here) and the women that Mourdock took out of play, it is probably not my best, most confident pick. Still think Romney brings him over the finish line in a squeaker.
Akin – LOL
Oklatex, Eric
Let’s do it
New Reuter Ipsos 47-76 Obama
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/31/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121031
Here is the money quote from the national journal “poll”:
In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).
They are partying like it’s 2008 and brazenly saying so.
Trash it.
-Polaris
@511 – I meant that many of the MSM polls that are +8D or more are showing indies heavily favoring Romney by double digits. Some Republicans/conservatives may be calling themselves independents.
In polls that have been showing more even turnout (Around +2D dem), the indie lead for Romney has been less which might indicate these “conservative independents” actually calling themselves republicans.
My point is that you can’t necessarily extrapolate using the double-digit leads with independents that Romney has in the MSM, +8D polls. If a poll has turnout is more even, it is a plausible assumption that there are “conservative independents” from one poll calling themselves actual “republicans” in another.
If this is the case, Romney’s extrapolated lead with independents would be less in polls with more even turnout: I would guess high single digits.
Dave:
Why are you giving Florida to President when it is a tie?
Gallup, RAS and PEW are the three gold standards for party ID. They are only ones who study it nationally week in and week out as well as monthly (PEW).
NJ does one poll and finds the most D turnout model in 2012.
Polaris what do you think of #524?
As expected that Natinal Journal “Poll” crashed the RCP average to 0.2. Expect shouts of a resurgent Obama in 3….2….1….
-Polaris
http://shark-tank.net/2012/10/30/connie-macks-freedom-bus-tour-builds-mackmentum/
Toss up all the way.
Rumor mongering by Newt?
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/gingrich-a-reliable-senator-tells-me-two-networks-have-stand-down-e-mails-from-donilons-office/
#533 read #529 That’s what I think.
-Polaris
D+8? Someone is going to look foolish or will they (on either side) just blithely go on like nothing happened? I am not confining this to the Marxists. I am talking about guys like Morris as well.
I know what is needed to cure the jitters around here.
A heaping helping of a new Gallup or RAS daily tracking poll.
Any estimate when the next one shows up?
There is a lot of anxiety over the Sandy baby bump.
#530 I head this tale in 2010 too. It was wrong then, it’s wrong now. In fact if you look at polls like BG and PEW where Indies are asked to reveal their leanings, they split almost 50-50 between Dem and GOP.
This would not be the case if what you suggest is true.
-Polaris
If anybody at HHR knew as much about polling as they claim, they would actually be pollsters rather than discussing other pollsters. Discuss.
THere isn’t a Sandy bump. This is a blatently wrong and Dem oversampled poll, trashing the RCP average.
As for Ras, he will come out in the AM, and I expect Romney will gain some (and the Indy number will straighten out). I don’t expect a Gallup until this weekend.
-Polaris
Black faith leaders plan $1 million anti-Obama effort over same-sex marriage
A group of African-American faith leaders has created a new nonprofit organization called “God Said.”
In response to President Obama’s support of same-sex marriage, the group plans to spend $1 million in an effort to strip the President of 25% of the Black vote that he garnered in 2008.
In a statement, God Said founder, Apostle Claver Kamau-Imani, announced, “The Black community is among the most religious in America, and we are offended that President Obama has announced his support of same-sex marriage, that the NAACP has blindly supported the secular views of the Democratic Party and that their national platform plainly supports same-sex marriage.”
#541 Pfeh. If you’ve seen the quality of work of a lot of the pollsters these days, I think most of us know more about polling then they do.
-Polaris
@541 Agreed.
What was the plus ad last time in National Journal poll?
Bitter
if Andy Reid was as good as you claim, he would have already coached the Eagles to the Super Bowl
discuss
469 – John i’m in full agreement with you. Today’s full on blitz of trashey bogus 3rd rate polling outfits was an orchestrated by the Chicago low life’s total desperation!!!!
If Morris is wildly wrong will he still be on Hannity and Greta multiple times per week?
MD Hannity still has Zogby come by every now and then
Where is AZ, 350+, Guy today?
Looked – Obama caught a beached whale!
http://www.philly.com/?c=r
shoot I messed that up:
if Andy Reid was as good as you claim, he would have already coached the Eagles to a Super Bowl title*
National Journal and their bold forecast of a 2008 electorate +1 for the Dems, based on their small LV sample, flies in the face of all the actual data that is out there including the individual polls of the house battleground states. I keep posting them over and over. I won’t post them again here as nothing changed since I last posted. But it bears repeating that if 2008 was happening again, we would be getting SLAUGHTERED in these house races. Some of those districts voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008, and yet the GOP candidates are holding on or doing very well.
Last National Jouranl was done at the end of Sept (released 2 Oct just before the debates).
74% White and DRI of 39/32/29.
While tied with LVs, had +5 Obama with RVs.
In short, they are doubling down on Party like it’s 2008 and they are showing move to Obama that no other major pollster is showing.
-Polaris
Author – Reid will be gone after the season. The next coach may be great or terrible.
Can’t we at least agree that 95% of people in Florida don’t even know there is an NHL lockout?
We are still on generators here but are having problems getting our computers up and running. It is terribly frustrating as we have a shift of trolls ready to be unleashed to brag up the new National Journal poll, but their computers are down. Once up and running, you will be swamped.
When hey got a tie last time, 47 to 47 what plus D value did the National Journal use?
Reasontards reveal their vote preferences: This time, no Obama vote, but no Romney either. Straight down Gary Johnson.
http://reason.com/archives/2012/10/24/whos-getting-our-votes/singlepage
Jay Cost ?@JayCostTWS
Use this as a cautionary tale, gang. Read in tandem with my piece today, reinforces this point: DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS = DIFFERENT RESULTS.
Jay Cost Jay Cost ?@JayCostTWS
There’s no better e.g. of how polling *assumptions* affect outcomes than Pew v. NJ. Same & data collector. Different LV screens.
Jay Cost ?@JayCostTWS
Princeton Survey Research Associates did the National Journal poll from 10/25 to 10/28, found Obama up 5.
Jay Cost ?@JayCostTWS
So let’s wrap our mind around this one, gang. Princeton Survey Research Associates did the Pew poll from 10/24 to 10/28. Found a tie.
Sandy Bump. Hahahaha. Media-pollster collusion-gate.
ThAnks Polaris.
The GMU early voting website has updated Colorado results. A little different than what was posted earlier here today.
1,150,698 votes have been cast. That’s 47.5% of the 2008 total votes and 67.5% of the 2008 early votes.
35.2% Dem
38.2% GOP
26.6% Other
GOP +3
2008 early vote was Dem +1.8% and Other was around the same % of the electorate.
National Journal poll is shameless turnout model for Dems.
D+8.
Geez, I wish Gallup was around to counter this nonsense.
National Journal is not bi-partisan, they are about as unbiased as NPR.
smaller the sample, the better O does. Hmmm.
Only an issue in HHR. If, like Bitter, you are predicting a Romney win in PA, this doesn’t help:
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121031_Christie_rises_to_occasion_of_being_true_Jersey_governor.html
First sentence:
EWING, N.J. – He surprised: Praising President Obama one week before an election in which he had raised millions for the Republican opponent.
Nah, only an issue here.
Over/under on when Christie bolts the party? I give it until November of 13. He might become an I first.
yeah this Christie thing is getting out of hand
Mayor of Atlantic City is a democrat btw. Somehow, news outlets never report affiliation for democratic politicians when they screw up.
GO FIGURE.
re my own 566 -
good thing election day is the biggest sample of all…
Is there an RV sample posted for that poll?
Dio – he is, basically, a crook. Yea, they go to great lengths not to put a D next to his name. How did things work out for the last R moron to shake Obama’s hand on a beach?
The difference in Jersey is that it won’t be the R’s who will drown him but the D’s. The Marxists will not be won over unless he officially becomes one of them.
Makes me ill that he went on Piers Morgan while lecturing us that he doesn’t care about Presidential politics. Fat, undisciplined whale. Have another 2 dozen doughnuts and maybe your breathing will improve.
Well since the NJ poll was done 10/25-10/28 it probably won’t be on the final RCP. Can’t say too much positive about the public polls today. Quin-was expected, but clearly I would have liked better results in the MU poll. The NJ poll sample is poor, but it mucks up RCP.
@570 Welcome to the world of partisan media. Where it is far more important to get the partisanship right than the story right.
I would also be surprised by a Sandy bump but it seems that some here are worried about one.
Good info on the nat journal. Had not heard of it before.
I see Dave W has finally flipped FL back to Red
Every Marxist paper in a swing state is leading with the Christie praises Obama story.
Only an issue at HHR though.
Dead to me.
Romney needs Ohio. Boy, I hope Rasmussen is right! Romney 50%-Obama 48%!
574 – well, we have been warning ourselves for months that we would need to gird our loins for the last week. But honestly, the Roanoke College poll has put a smile on my face that nobody can remove, and no other poll can remove. It was a D leaning poll as to internals, but still has Romney up by 5 points. VIRGINIA is not in play. It puts Romney right at 257 EVS, just 13 to go.
The unemployment rate should increase. The jobs number should be horrible on Friday. Sandy will be an after thought on Friday and Christie will still be a fat slob!
578 – Yeah, Rush spent time today taking Christie to task. Pointed out that Gov. Cuomo made no such comments, nor did any of the other govs.
I agree w/ DW, we’re at 257 w/ 13 EVs to go. Im pessimistic will get the other 13 but we’ll see.
Last timenNJ had a 5 pt difference between RV and LV. What about that today?
MD – You left the GOP. Relax. Go hang out with some other Independents at the mansion cocktail parties.
My guess is Christie saw a chance to help Romney lose so he could run in 2016 with no incumbant on the ballot. Not sure what he thinks will be left of the USA to run for, but that may have been his thinking.
The pollster who did the NJ poll dances all over saying stuff about how turnout models change the results. Does he not believe his own results?
Dead to me. I may be a registered independent but I would never show the disloyalty that Christie displayed. Which left wing show will he be on tonight? You know, that is essential for him to do his job. I guess “we don’t know him very well”.
Fat load.
MU Law and NJ pollsters had in their write-up “well it all depends on turnout”. same defense they have used on Hewitt’s show when he interviews them.
586
You actually believe he’s Machiavelli in a fat suit.
C’mon man.
587, pretty much all the writeup so far is very tentative and cautious even if their toplines are so egregiously pro-Obama. They are stuck with the “democgraphic rules all” model, like that CBS/NYT national poll that actually had more Republicans in the sample, then they reweighted it to get it down.
583 – I think we get there. Still plenty of combinations with or without OH. I am thinking that in the end, Romney stands a great shot of hitting 50% in OH. Obama got only 51% in 2008.
stop picking on Christie! 2016 losers! Obama 2012!
Dem governor, Wisconsin turnout looks crappy for Obama:
“We have not turned out the vote early,” Hancock told the newspaper. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote. We’ve got to get our people to go vote.”
http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2012/10/31/denver-mayor-michael-hancock-stumps-obama-wisconsin-early-voting-favor-president/85190/
We could be overreacting about Christie or not. We do not know how he feels about Romney after not being picked for vp.
FWIW
Suffolk dude was on BOR last night and seemed to think Mitt has a good chance in OH. Said most pollsters were over sampling the NE area(Cle) and that its pop has been steadily in decline.
The Suffolk guy has a chance to look like a genius if Mitt wins
nt
595 – but HE was the one who kept saying Don’t pick me, I am not interested.
CO another day and Rep continue to lead R 38 D 35 I 26. 3 Swing counties Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer that went O by 54-45 or 80K+ votes in 08 are now R-12K+ not including indies. Romney is up about 40k in votes with 47% of the vote reported.
CO is red!!
KD
new thread
594
1. I think he is a Mayor
2. Scare tactic for motivational purposes
I wouldn’t pay much attention.
Apologetic…
That’s the Dem Mayor of Denver…
Maybe Christie is just his usual undisciplined self with no ulterior motives. But he should not ever be put at the top of the ticket.
580-Forgot about the Roanoke poll-that was certainly a positive. 257 is where I have Romney in the lead with NH(4) and IA(6) as pure toss ups. OH seems neck and neck, but with all the spin from both sides on ten state it is hard to figure out what is going on there. NV looks like it may ever so slightly lean Obama(but I wouldn’t bet more than 10 bucks on that). WI-Ras has it tied and MU has a big Obama lead( would like to see more polling there). PA MI and MN look like they are within 5 but still lean Obama.
so even in NC the Indies now favouring Obama
PPP: NC: JA: 49/50 unskewed: 47.2/51.6
Obama/Romney: 49/49
unskewed: Romney/Obama: 52.1/47.5
McCrory/Dalton/Howe: 50/39/4
unskewed: McCrory/Dalton/Howe: 51.6/36.6/4.8
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_1031.pdf
Ben PPP is worthless. No one here cares.