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Romney/Obama Tied in NH, Romney Within 3% in WI and 6% in PA

Some more polling starting with the polling organization that in late September claimed Barack Obama held a 15% lead in the state of New Hampshire is now claiming Mitt Romney has wiped out that deficit and moved into a tie.

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%
Mitt Romney (R) 47%

This poll was done October 31-November 2 among 502 likely voters. Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling is showing on their Twitter feed the following results for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Mitt Romney (R) 48%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Barack Obama (D_inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 46%

Don’t forget, PPP said Scott Walker was going to win by only 3% during the Recall Election before Walker wen on to win by 7%.

And back by popular demand, The 2012 Hedgehog Report Election Prediction Contest has been posted and is one below this one. Feel free to jump down there, post your prediction and then come back up here to talk about it.

Posted by Dave at 9:36 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (516)

516 Responses to “Romney/Obama Tied in NH, Romney Within 3% in WI and 6% in PA”

  1. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    SEGUNDO

  2. Randy says:

    headline is wrong

  3. Eric Dondero says:

    New Hampshire is a big libertarian state. This represents libertarians coming home to the GOP in the final 72 hours. Oh, yeah! Success for the Swing State Johnson/Romney Vote Swap project.

    LIBERTARIANS FOR ROMNEY!!!
    http://www.libertarianrepublican.net

  4. TedO says:

    I was excited to see the headline..then saw it was Obama..but then again it is PPP! Grain of salt applied!

  5. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Thirsty?

    Head over to the DU, champagne is already flowing!

  6. Mr.Vito says:

    “Patricia Smith, the mother of slain State Department employee Sean Patrick Smith, is now blaming President Barack Obama for her son’s death.

    “I believe that Obama murdered my son,” she said Thursday from the living room of her Clairemont home. “I firmly believe this.”

    Patricia Smith, who voted for Obama in 2008 at the insistence of her son, said reporting by Fox News is the basis for much of her belief that Obama is ultimately responsible for her son’s death. She said Sean, who went to Mission Bay High School but lived abroad, was a fervent supporter of the president.”

    http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/nov/02/tp-families-differ-on-us-response/

  7. Jake says:

    6 – Get lost, troll

  8. Waingro says:

    What’s the DRI on the PPP Wisco poll?

  9. Tina says:

    Breaking News!!!!

    Geraldine Rivera calls Sandy – Katrina II.

  10. wv ally says:

    Did somebody say in the last thread that Christie actually declined to affirm his support for Romney in an interview?

  11. SusyQue says:

    This WI poster makes her feeling about ooo without hesitation:

    penny

    Real women love real men, and Romney is a real man. Unlike his opponent, Obama, the creepy Muslim Brotherhood supporter, pathological liar, with a shady past , having at least three names, with radical terrorist associations and anti-American parents. Plus, he’s an insufferable phony. Not to mention, a race baiting whiny class warfare shake down artist. Sad sad sad, that American women were sucked in by Oprah when she mainstreamed him to many of my gender last time. Hopefully, they’ve awakened and will mend their ways this time.

  12. TedO says:

    #6…Stay away from those premature ‘ejaculations’ Jenny…I mean “eruptions” …I mean ‘explosions’…hah forget it. Put the bottle between your legs and see what happens. Please let us know!

  13. rdelbov says:

    No details yet on PA or WI poll from PPP

  14. Bobby says:

    D+7 in PA in 08 and D+2 in 04 for those asking.

  15. Jeff G. says:

    295
    244
    49
    51.7%

  16. Bitterlaw says:

    Walt – I already stated my views on Christie. I am done with it. This incident has made A-holes face off against each other. Nobody wants to see that.

  17. Waingro says:

    #13, well I’m DONE with him if that is true.

  18. Tina says:

    Tinareports is not making any official predictions this time.

  19. SusyQue says:

    #13…All I heard was a very frustrated and overwhelmed Chris Cristy saying he wasn’t interested in the president race at that point in time. Understandable and I am sure Mitt Romney understood his
    distress because of the devastation he never imagined would happen along the NJ shore.

  20. Tina says:

    I do not think it is true. I found no link anywhere.

  21. RB says:

    Per Numbersmuncher PA poll was D+10

  22. jason says:

    I will post my predictions tomorrow night. I apologize for making everyone wait that long.

  23. Joe Six Pack says:

    Thirsty? Head over to the DNC, where golden showers are the rule.

  24. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    After Nov 6th all you loosers can start re-weighting NFL and NASCAR so you win everytime!

  25. Ron Burgundy says:

    PA, OH, MN, IA, NH, NV Going Romney.

  26. Marv says:

    WAPO watch…….

  27. Waingro says:

    #29, less than 2 hours to go

  28. Jake says:

    27 – After Nov 6th you and the rest of the scumbags at DU can whine about how Obama really won the election, like you still whine toady 12 years later about Gore winning in 2000.

  29. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Comment by jenny’s BLUE POLLS! — November 3, 2012 @ 10:13 pm

    STOP stealing my handle!

  30. Robbie says:

    Seeing more and more talk on Twitter tonight about the two very different models each campaign is using for polling. I even get the sense some are beginning to wonder about some of the assumptions Obama’s camp has been making.

  31. hall monitor says:

    # 15…Ted O…your post crossed the line of civility and discourse on a public blog.

  32. wv ally says:

    Ok thanks for clearing it up. So in the initial moments after the storm someone asked him about his support for Romney and he said don’t talk to me about politics right now. That seems like his style, and i suppose he’d say the same thing if the hurricane through a month ago. The whole incident did remind me of his convention speech, which was all about him. Not only did he not mention Romney, but he didnt even really argue for conservative principles in general…it was really mostly here’s what i did in NJ. Guess thats what it takes to win as a Rep in a deep blue state. Ho hum.

  33. W.PA Observer says:

    31-HAHAH!

  34. jenny-Romney will lose.. says:

    I’ll stop call Jason trailer park trash if Romney wins! It won’t happen! LOL!

  35. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Can’t WAIT for the WaPo BLUE poll!

    Tee hee

  36. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Dave Wissing please ban these idiots

  37. Viceroy Argus says:

    I missed Frank’s post earlier this morning. What’s the current PID for RAS?

  38. hellbelly says:

    ….i don’t mind trolls so much…in fact Jenny blue-polls and patk actually make me laugh a bit, but some of these other morons (Tedo in #15) are just insipid morons who actually think they are clever.

    ….which is sort of scary.

  39. Viceroy Argus says:

    BTW… Patrick Ruffini, GOP numbers guy, is expecting D+3, he Tweeted tonight

  40. jenny-Romney will lose.. says:

    I will concede this point Romney looks presidential. He’s a handsome guy!

  41. jason says:

    Here is Christie campaigning for Romney on October 19, 2012 in VA.

    I rest my case.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5ick3Nz4I

  42. W.PA Observer says:

    We’ll see on turnout, all things considered.

  43. jason says:

    Workers on break at the meth lab….

    Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrreeee’s Jennyyyyyyyyy!!!

  44. keystone says:

    IMHO, I think Christie should have and probablyt did anticipate the devastation. I lived at the shore and we all knew that a head on hit by a hurricane would push water back to Pomona. I think his handling before and after shows his knowledge. I just don’t know why he had to lavish praise om obama for doing his job.

    Bloomberg is a different story. He clearly doesn’t get it.

  45. Ron Burgundy says:

    I saw the interview and Christie was over the top in his praise for Obama.

  46. jenny-Romney will lose.. says:

    Jason, did ya eat some possum vittles yet?
    Did ya get welfare check yet?

  47. RB says:

    The MSM is predictable. For months conservitives have said the polls are nonsense, and the MSM smugly ignores them. Once they saw 35,000 in Southeast OH and 18,000 in CO-sobriety settles in and out come the calculators.

  48. W.PA Observer says:

    49- Stop it. Just, stop it.

  49. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Please ban these idiots

    The site is becoming Polipundit

  50. Jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    The site is becoming Polipundit

    You mean sockpuppetpundit?

    :razz:

  51. jason says:

    Christie at fund raiser for Romney:

    “In an 18-minute speech, Christie took aim at the president, pivoting off Obama’s message at the podium. “It says “Forward,’ ” the governor said, drawing chuckles from a crowd of several hundred at the Willard Hotel, blocks from the White House.

    “Well, let me say this: I’ve never ever seen a worse-named campaign, than to call the Barack Obama campaign “Forward,’ ” he said. “And that’s for two reasons. First, if forward is going to be anything like the way backward was, the only place we want him going forward is to come out of Washington, D.C., make a left-hand turn and head forward back to Chicago.”

    Calling the president the “divider in chief,” Christie said Obama “was going to be different. He was going to be the post-partisan president. He was going to be the person who was going to bring us together. … Never ever has anyone fallen shorter of the mark of leadership than Barack Obama has fallen short of the own mark he set for himself.”

    Christie used the Garden State as a punch line, as he often does for national audiences, saying there are lots of cynics in America — “probably about 40 percent of them live in New Jersey.”

  52. W.PA Observer says:

    53- Again, you need to stop.

  53. Corey says:

    My final pre-election Race for the White House post:

    http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2012/11/race-for-white-house.html

    Predictions: Romney 50, Obama 49

    Love of Country: 275
    Revenge: 263

    And praying that those of us who are choosing to be optimistic will be right.

  54. MD says:

    D+3 is my best guess for party ID. It is possible for either candidate to win with that ID.

    It really all comes back to OH. I have it as Romney 263, Obama 253 with OH and NH – well, I don’t know. I am giving Romney VA, CO and IA. I am giving Obama NV, WI (although that could change) and PA.

    I am not yet set on the Senate but here is what I think right now – subject to change since it is close:

    Gains

    ND,
    NE
    MT
    VA
    WI

    Losses

    MA
    IN
    ME

    GOP +2

    House D+2

    Not a set prediction though.

  55. jason says:

    You have to excuse Jenny. Meth has eaten most of her brain, and it shows.

  56. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – How was the rally?

  57. Joe Six Pack says:

    Jenny’s BLUE POLLS’s handle may be Jenny BLUE POLLS< but Jenny BLUE POLLS will be blue in the emotional sense when The Obama Messiah joins Jimmah Carter in the Pantheon of Demoncrap Presidents who have not been reelected.

  58. Apologetic California says:

    “While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, says Romney has effectively closed the gap enough that strong Republican turnout on Election Day could cost Obama those states.

    “It’s going to be difficult for Obama to pull enough ahead to win North Carolina to offset what Romney may do on Election Day,” says McDonald, director of the United States Elections Project. “They’re seeing the same numbers I am seeing.”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83248.html#ixzz2BDYipiHM

  59. jason says:

    If we lose IN it will be a tragedy.

  60. jason says:

    59. I posted about it earlier…. let me see if I can find it.

  61. MD says:

    jason – notice you didn’t put a date on when the fat load traitor said that. Yea, it was before the storm.

    Fat load traitor had a chance to directly state that he supported Romney. He took a pass and did so with gusto.

    Dead to me. Hope Booker beats him like a drum.

  62. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    LSU is running successfully against Bama

    I’m impressed

  63. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    TD at last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  64. MD says:

    Once Ras had Mourdock down by 3, I had to reassess. It will still be close but in the end, without the Lugarites, Mourdock could not afford to piss off another segment which he did.

    This is one race where I hope to be wrong and am only minimally confident. I could still change my mind. I don’t plan on making my prediction until near the deadline.

  65. Polaris says:

    BOOM!!!

    MN PPP: Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45

    -Polaris

  66. W.PA Observer says:

    Didn’t they have him by 11 or so the other day?

  67. wv ally says:

    Another troll?

  68. jason says:

    64. Not intentional. I put the date on the October 19 video. The other speech was on July 18.

    My point is that just because Christie praised Obama’s response to the hurricane he has been a loyal soldier for Romney and has in fact raised money and campaigned for him.

  69. W.PA Observer says:

    Seriously, this handle-stealing and the fake polls has to stop.

  70. MD says:

    44 – what case? That isn’t relevant. In the most important moment in our political history in the last 32 years, he NOT ONLY CHOSE TO PRAISE OBAMA BUT CHOSE TO NOT PRAISE ROMNEY AT THE SAME TIME WHEN ASKED! What more do you possibly need to see!!!

    Did you see his interview on Fox?

    Traitor. Fat load, disloyal loser. “I have a job to do. You don’t know me very well”.

    FU. We know you very well load. Very well.

  71. jason says:

    Sorry MD, calling him a traitor and ignoring his whole track record supporting Romney is exaggerated IMO.

  72. Joe Six Pack says:

    The Obama Messiah carried Minnesota by 10 points in 2008, so there will be at least a 1 to 2 point drop off, assuming arguendo the PPP poll is correct (a somewhat questionable assumption).

  73. keystone says:

    The fact that Christie was such a Romney supporter before last week exacerbates the damage it did. If Charlie Christ endorses obama nobody cares. Christie praises Obama after giving the keynote speach and the media is on it 24/7.

  74. MD says:

    71 – FACT

    When asked about Romney he said, “I am not playing Presidential politics….you don’t know ME very well… I have a job to do”. This was immediately AFTER praising Obama yet again. Again. I gave him a pass on the presser. That was understandable. Since then he has been an outright traitor and it is beyond obvious. This fat load will NEVER sniff a job outside of Jersey unless Obama wins and nominates him for one.

    Now the case is truly rested.

  75. jason says:

    I disagree. On Fox he had been up all night and the Fox guy tried to goad him with a dumb political question are you going to tour the damage with Romney.

    I have seen NOTHING that indicates Christie is not supporting Romney. NOTHING. Just listen to the link I posted above, October 19.

  76. RB says:

    As tempting as it is to look at the MN PPP poll, I am convinced Jensen will show us close in all the races(including key Senate races), but never in the lead.

  77. bio mom says:

    I am sad to say that Christie did real damage to Romney. I think he will recover and win. But at best Christie showed serious misjudgment. If due to stress he should not be a national leader. Too undisciplined.

  78. MD says:

    74 – no it is most certainly not. Was going on Fox and refusing to discuss Romney exaggerated? Was going on Piers Morgan part of “doing his job”. He stabbed Romney in the back and the tracking polls prove it.

    It is NOT exaggerated. Scum. He is pure scum.

  79. jason says:

    MD, you want to blame Christie for how the MSM portrays what he says?

  80. Joe Six Pack says:

    The Obama Messiah carried Pennsylvania by 10 points in 2008. If he carries Pennsylvania this time by 6 points or less that will be a substantial dropoff.

  81. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – MD wants Christie to lose as governor of New jersey but doesn’t have the balls to go move there and live under the next governor that he claims he wants. My brother, sister, aunt, dad, nieces nd nephew live in New Jersey. The adults voted for Christie in 2009 and will vote for him in 2013. MD can GFY if he thinks anybody cares what somebdy in Pennsylvania thinks about who they should choose as their governor.

  82. Joe Six Pack says:

    The tracking polls show no such thing.

  83. jason says:

    Tracking polls have ZERO to do with Sandy. That is MSM spin and hype. The left hates Christie with a passion. He is their worst nightmare, a successful Republican in a blue state.

  84. Richard B. Morris says:

    83—Yeah, so what? Winner takes all in electoral votes so a substantial drop off is meaningless unless it equals a loss.

  85. Robbie says:

    I like Christie, but I think he spent a good part of the week simply overwhelmed by the destruction. With a clearer mind, I think he would have been less effusive for Obama.

  86. MD says:

    78

    Are you dense?? What has he said since the storm? What have every media outlet run with since the storm?

    You aren’t very good at this sort of thing. Maybe you should go back to picking on a lightweight like Susy.

  87. Bitterlaw says:

    bio mom – Were you one of the Delaware geniuses who gave us COD? If so, you did more damage to the GOP than Christie. You helped piss away the chance to take the Senate.

  88. bio mom says:

    88. Leaders have to perform under stress. We did not give Blanco a pass after Katrina.

  89. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Well, we got the +2 in turnovers I was hoping for

    Still down 14-10 though

  90. bio mom says:

    90. I voted forbCastle. And Christie has nothing to do with that election. We are talking about this one.

  91. W.PA Observer says:

    In the meantime- William Kristol (to my surprise considering his pessimism this year) argues that he believes Romney will win (even while still managing to complain about Romney not talking foreign policy enough).

  92. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Christie is an accordion under pressure

    Fuuck this guy

  93. MD says:

    86 – Total crap. Utter nonsense. So now the decline in Ras is due to the msm? So insanely clueless now it is funny.

    Christie will NEVER win an election outside of Jersey and if Booker runs he is finished there as well.

  94. Polaris says:

    The #58 of two threads ago (PPP PA Poll) was NOT posted by me. I just got back from Dinner.

    -Polaris

  95. Bitterlaw says:

    I’m sorry then, bio mom. My wife is from Delaware. I never trust Delaware. It gave is Biden.

  96. MD says:

    90 – ah, the usual distraction technique again. Rinse, repeat.

    For the record, Bio Mom did not support COD. I remember that very well.

  97. jason says:

    I just don’t see the Christie thing as anything like MD portrays it. I think Christie is a great governor, loyal Romney supporter, and a scourge to northeast liberals.

    I have no problem with him saying Obama was responsive to the crisis, although it turns out that he might have been a little premature.

    The fact the MSM interpreted that as an endorsement of Obama just shows how corrupt they are.

    At most you can blame Christie for giving them the opportunity.

  98. charleypreacher says:

    FWIW Long Island Newsday endorsed Mitt Romney (13th largest newspaper in country) They went for Obama in 2008. NYC Daily News with Mort Zuckerman s/b next domino to fall.

  99. W.PA Observer says:

    97- Then Dave needs to ban the one who did.

  100. lisab says:

    ” Obama, the creepy Muslim Brotherhood supporter, pathological liar, with a shady past , having at least three names, with radical terrorist associations and anti-American parents. ”

    uh oh

    i have three names …

    not counting my maiden name!

  101. Pitchaboy says:

    Please let us not discuss Christie. He is a petulant fat man-child that is not worthy of discussion.

  102. Polaris says:

    Grr…I DID NOT post #68 of this thread either.

    -Polaris

  103. sir A says:

    Enough w the christie talk. No one outside of this nerd convention cares.

  104. bio mom says:

    Well Bitterlaw and Jason, Christie now has the opportunity to criticize the fed response and tonsaynONE positive thing forbRomney before Tuesday.nWe will see. But I doubt it.

  105. MD says:

    Bio – when Bitter is on the short end of a debate, he employs a standard lawyer tactic of trying to add a distraction into the mix. He told me earlier today I should move to Jersey.

    F it. Since the aholes are firmly in favor of Christie and I think he is the ultimate backstabber, someone can take my spot.

    I am done with that silly shiit. This was very serious and I cannot believe that anyone who would refer to himself or herself as a Republican would think it is OK or no big deal. EVERY newspaper led with the story. EVERY msm outlet led with the story. The future of our country is at risk, we are in what seems to be a tied race and we get stabbed in the back. Yet, some think that is OK.

    Unreal.

  106. wv ally says:

    Sorry for restarting this boring fight.

  107. jason says:

    Linking a minuscule fluctuation in RAS to Christie is ridiculous.

    Didn’t the WAPO poll oscillate in Romney’s favor? Why did that happen?

  108. Tina says:

    Yes, Christie has done all that, no excuse. But now, Sandy is Katrina II. Geraldine Rivera reported this a half hour ago.

  109. W.PA Observer says:

    Also for the record, the UNH poll has to be up there as one of the most insane state polls of a cycle of insane state polls – O 15 to O 5 to O 9 to tied.

  110. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Whoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!

  111. MD says:

    106 – yea, every media outlet highlighted it and we lost 3 points in Ras.

    Nope, doesn’t matter one little bit.

  112. jason says:

    Well, if I agreed it was backstabbing I would agree with you.

    But I don’t see it that way.

  113. RB says:

    Let’s take a poll of Statin Island and see of they feel the response has been adequate. When you think about it, it is shocking that this is happening in NYC.

  114. Marv says:

    WAPO watch………T-57 minutes and counting.

  115. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    Thank you Governor Christie!

    Obama wins again!

  116. phoenixrisen says:

    WOW MFG!!! Sweet fade throw by Mettenberger. Couldn’t throw that one better :)

    17-14 LSU over Bama

  117. Tina says:

    We actually gained 2 in WA Post – as of yesterday’s release.

    However, nobody should be releasing any national polls.

  118. Polaris says:

    As I expected we are having a troll infestation.

    Again, as I see it, it’s pretty stark:

    If the polls that assume a 2008 type electorate are correct, Obama wins.

    If there isn’t a 2008 type electorate then Obama almost certainly loses.

    There isn’t any middle ground here.

    -Polaris

  119. MD says:

    3 points is minuscule at the end of a race? WTF is wrong with you??

    F it.

    Done

    Take your silly shiit club and shove it.

  120. Tina says:

    You saw the NYer (staten islad) chew out the ahole Senator Schumah?

  121. Pitchaboy says:

    I am with MD on this. Christie politicized it to Os benefit. He could have shown some class, instead he was crass.

  122. Polaris says:

    #120 Agreed. Doing a national poll when a major part of the country is in the middle of a hurricane and it’s aftermath is irresponsible polling. Period.

    -Polaris

  123. jason says:

    MD, I think we all agree on the importance of the election. We just disagree on whether Christie was just doing his job or was intentionally disloyal to Romney.

  124. Tina says:

    Md, you seem really upset. I did not see ??? around to make you so upset.

  125. Tom Gordon says:

    No way Christie blames the federal response bio mom.

    I disagree with other who think “Obama owns” any negatives from Sandy now. If the Sandy saga drags into next week, that helps Obama. It keeps a natural disaster in the news and he’s the CiC.

    The media will never “Katrina” Obama. Sandy is a big win for him.

    That being said, I think Obama’s bump from this disappears by Tuesday morning.

  126. Bitterlaw says:

    bio mom – I hope he does criticize Obama. There is no point to this argument anymore. I stayed out of since this afternoon. Any discussion during my absence was not caused by me. I wish we could go back to a happier time:

    http://www.gq.com/women/photos/201207/kate-upton-gq-video-july-2012

  127. SusyQue says:

    Just a reminder. Check the states ooo looses.

    University of Colorado Professors Prediction:

    “Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

    According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 213 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties. Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

    In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.

    In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.

  128. MD says:

    RB – the msm is portraying it as “expected minor difficulties”. Yes, Fox isn’t doing that but they are preaching to the choir. The meme was set by Christie. The f’n idiot didn’t even wait to see if they could actually do the job.

  129. Pitchaboy says:

    Losing 2 points in a tight race could mean four more years of crap and huge national economic damage. Christie put his interests above nation and party. He is finished, IMHO.

  130. lisab says:

    “Sandy is Katrina II”

    you guys clearly don’t understand new york/new jersey sensibilities

    when you can get a martini 24/7/365

    suddenly not being able to buy gas is very upsetting

  131. Polaris says:

    #130 I also notice that in the same model he keeps NV which seems increasingly likely.

    -Polaris

  132. W.PA Observer says:

    In the meantime, the Battleground Watch guy provoked Ralston (the Nevada political-sage- who is flaming lefty into a bit of a meltdown)

    http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/03/does-this-mean-ive-made-it-the-jon-ralston-edition/#comments

  133. jason says:

    MD, what does this have to do with the club.

    I don’t think changes in the tracking poll have to do with Christie. We have seen these ups and downs before. THe WAPO poll actually moved back to Romney last night.

  134. Polaris says:

    #133 Not only that but New Yorkers and Jersyites complain….loudly.

    -Polaris

  135. jason says:

    ” The f’n idiot didn’t even wait to see if they could actually do the job.”

    I already conceded that point.

  136. Pitchaboy says:

    Doing your job is thanking the President for his cooperation. But slobbering over him and then dismissing Romney in the same sentence is disloyalty.

  137. Tina says:

    All we need is Geraldine with the skinny guy on Faux– forgot his name– to attempt another race riot- like they tried in Katrina.

  138. jason says:

    Clint Eastwood ad…

    Excellent.

  139. lisab says:

    there is a bewitched marathon on tv

    i much prefer the first darrin

  140. jason says:

    139. Again, that is your interpretation, not mine.

  141. Tina says:

    We got missing people, no gas, water, electricity, 20 degree temps, and no food. Top it off, until yesterday, Dumberg wanted to host a marathon. He is no Rudy G.

  142. jason says:

    Me too. First Darrin was better.

  143. Tom Gordon says:

    The more NY/NJ people complain, the worse it is for Romney.

    We need this Sandy story to go away so we can get back to the angry, empty Obama of “binders” and Big Bird.

    That’s the Obama Americans need to be thinking about on Tuesday. Not the guy in the CiC bomber jacket.

  144. jason says:

    Is that an updated U. of Colorado prediction or the old one?

  145. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    My God, are we going to win?!

  146. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    146.The more NY/NJ people complain, the worse it is for Romney

    They will blame the man in charge, that be obammer

  147. Tina says:

    Christie Kreme needs to be primaried and if he is the nominee, conservatives should just sit out.

  148. twopeckeredbillygoat says:

    148.My God, are we going to win?!

    Our schadenfreude will be sublime

  149. Tina says:

    Don’t see how or why they blame Romney. He is not the COC.

  150. MD says:

    The story is NOT being framed that way by the msm. Only Fox.

    MFG – great game.

  151. lisab says:

    i miss massachusetts around halloween

    salem, massachusetts is wonderful

  152. Polaris says:

    #153 A lot of the MSM is based in NYC. There is only so much they can do that with reality staring them in the face. My take at any rate.

    -Polaris

  153. MD says:

    150 – Not worried about that Tina. He will never sniff that office. Never. This won’t be forgotten or forgiven.

    Wow, MFG. Why no FG there?

  154. Tina says:

    Only Fox

    Yes, but not all. I first heard of the Sandy poor response on ABC Radio and then CBS Radio. Read a lot of articles on Drudge- sourced locally.

  155. Tom Gordon says:

    IP,

    NY/NJ people may ultimately blame Obama for this. They may even blame him now.

    But NY/NJ people don’t matter regarding this election.

    The rest of the country, including those nice empty-headed undecideds in Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, etc., seem to be giving Obama high marks for Sandy. There was a reason Obama decided to leave that CiC bomber jacket on when he returned to the campaign trail.

  156. SusyQue says:

    Swing states that will go to Romney”

    North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.

  157. Mr.Vito says:

    “Since the aholes are firmly in favor of Christie…”

    Bitter asked where I stand… I said I can only stand with the Bossman…

    I am a loyal puppet.

  158. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    I heard Christie is going to start campaigning with Obama tomorrow!

  159. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Miles is gambling repeatedly

    I agree with all of the gambles except the fake field goal with 12 yards to go

  160. ReadyFirst says:

    Christie = Roberts. Shakespeare was right, kill all the lawyers. (No – not really).

  161. Tina says:

    MD, for his re-election, if he even decides to run. Given the mess there and the poor response, probably he walks away.

  162. wv ally says:

    so does anybody here ever watch straight up ABC or CBS at 6 pm to see how theyre spinning everything? Its been years since ive seen them—and i barely even watch fox. im very much in the online bubble

  163. W.PA Observer says:

    161- So is this the same person that is stealing handles to post?

  164. RB says:

    If I had to guess at WAPO, I would say 49-49. It still has Tue and Wed on it where Romney’s Keynote speaker was raising Obama’s approval.

  165. jason says:

    The MSM hates Christie. He scuttled their tunnel to NY. He actually reduced public union power and benefits. He is popular in a blue state. He makes the Dem governors in the Northeast look bad.

    He makes one comment praising Obama and suddenly they love him and cater to his every word?

    Am I the only one who sees how incongruous that is?

  166. Tina says:

    Curious, hy marks for Sandy was based on two WP tracking polls. Did they ask this yesterday?

  167. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    Obummer in a flight jacket is like
    dukakis in a tank.

  168. bio mom says:

    Bitter I agree about Delaware. Crazy politics here. Once you win, you are there forever.

  169. wv ally says:

    agreed he looks like a skinny neck dork in the jacket

  170. Tom Gordon says:

    wv,

    Regarding the news, just catch the top of the hour update on your favorite am talk station — the bias is sickening.

    I think one political scientist at Claremont McKenna college determined that the media costs Republicans something on the order of 7-10 points in elections, if I recall. (Don’t ask me how he quantified that.)

  171. MD says:

    jason

    It was NOT 1 comment. It was several AND he chose to repeat his praise while dismissing Romney at the same time. Talking about him would be “playing Presidential politics….you don’t know me very well….I have a job to do”. It was NOT 1 comment.

  172. Mr.Vito says:

    “Once you win, you are there forever.”

    Like The Masters Tournament.

  173. Mr.Vito says:

    “agreed he looks like a skinny neck dork in the jacket”

    Like The Masters Tournament.

  174. ReadyFirst says:

    From Brevard County, FL SOE this evening:

    “131,591 early and absentee votes cast and counting……”

    some comparison: “In 2008, a combined 120,527 votes were cast through Early Voting and Absentee. 51,879 votes during the 12 days of Early Voting and 68,648 Absentees were returned.”

    We’re already ahead of 2008 in this Republican County and I guess we’ll end up around 20% ahead of 2008 in total votes, early/absentee. FL is Romneys!

  175. Tom Gordon says:

    One thing we are noticing… actual numbers and indicators coming in from early voting looks much, much better than poll numbers.

  176. bio mom says:

    WaPo poll released late sp it can headline Sunday morning news shows. Good or bad omen?

  177. Polaris says:

    #178 Yes, funny how it seems to work that way (sarcasm but it’s a very real and factual observation).

    It makes you wonder what universe the pollsters are looking at….

    -Polaris

  178. Polaris says:

    #179 I don’t know. I am choosing to think it’s good for Romney because this way WaPo can hide it a bit. If the poll had been released at 5pm as normal, it would have dominated tonight’s chatter and thus tomorrow’s talk shows.

    Just my take.

    -Polaris

  179. ReadyFirst says:

    MD is absolutely correct about Christie. Any novice in politics would know not to heap that praise on Obama, let alone the Rep. keynote speaker.

  180. jason says:

    Final EV and Absentee NV numbers

    EV DEM 275k
    REP 224k
    IND 120k

    Absentee DEM 32k
    REP 36k
    IND 14k

    Total DEM 307k 44%
    REP 260k 37%
    IND 134k 19%

  181. W.PA Observer says:

    183- Gotta run up the margins on election day and do very well with indies. Tough, but not impossible by any stretch.

  182. Tina says:

    I read a few reports that say that Rs EV #s (the raw votes) have exceeded the Ds. True?

  183. MD says:

    Comment in moderation – whoops. Slight edit:

    Didn’t the idiot political “guru” Chuck whateverthefuuuccckhisnameis on MSNBC even concede that the polling of EV could be a problem?

  184. Marv says:

    #179 bio mom,

    My first instinct when I saw that was that it might be a pro-Romney result and ABC doesn’t want to lead with that on their Sunday morning show.

  185. ReadyFirst says:

    Polaris – I’m hearing stories like that from all over FL also. I understand turnout in S. FL, where I have family, is much lighter.

  186. jason says:

    174. Again if I believe your interpretation I would agree.

    But “playing Presidential politics….you don’t know me very well….I have a job to do”.

    I see that as his personality. The question he was answering was a stupid one are you going to be touring areas with Romney.

  187. Tina says:

    Keith @ BG Watch’s Twitter was blocked by Ralson. Keith appears to hold out hope for NV.

  188. Tina says:

    RE: NV how does 2012 compare to 2008.

  189. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Put em away now…

  190. phoenixrisen says:

    Geez, Mettenberger is making some incredible throws

  191. MD says:

    Great catch MFG!!!! They are going to pull it off. They HAVE to be #2. No way ND is in front of them.

  192. Polaris says:

    #188 S Florida (esp Miami-Dade and W Palm Beach) is the Dem part of the state.

    I am very confident about Florida. In fact I doubt it will be close.

    -Polaris

  193. MD says:

    Tina

    From what I see, the R’s did better but needed to do even better in Washoe to offset Clark. Best guess is that we come up 3 points or so short in NV.

  194. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Not over yet…

  195. wv ally says:

    So Polaris earlier MD predictied D +3. What say you?

  196. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    The bye week helped so much we were really prepared

  197. lisab says:

    darrin 2′s suits would still be stylish today

    that was 40 years ago!

  198. Waingro says:

    PartisanPolicyPolls ?@PPPPolling

    LOL (snark off), I was actually kidding about rushing out a counterweight Minnesota poll, but PPP actually did it tonight.

  199. jason says:

    Clark Co has 851k registered voters out of a total of 1257k. It’s the 800 lb gorilla in NV elections.

  200. Waingro says:

    Come on LSU! Give me BCS Chaos!!!

  201. Tom Gordon says:

    It seems clear from actual early voting that Florida is going to go for Romney.

    But we still see polling showing Obama +2 (Marist) or tied (Reuters).

    Again, actual voting numbers from the early votes looks better than the polls.

  202. ReadyFirst says:

    #195 BTW, we have one thing in common which is our former MOS’s as I’m a former Army S-2. Makes me appreciate your posts more.

  203. MD says:

    Polaris,

    Everyone I know in FL or connected to FL (that includes a former Rubio staffer who worked on Romney’s 08 campaign in FL) is extremely positive that FL is done. A solid 4 or 5 point win. Not a blow out but not a long night either. Trust me, my friend who was the Rubio staffer (an evil oil and gas lobbyist now) is a pessimist by nature as well. If he feels good, then it is good. Very confident in FL unless……I don’t even want to say it!

  204. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    OK defense do it

  205. jason says:

    Romney just got a little bump in Intrade.
    The 66-34 spread is a lot less than Natehack’s.

  206. Tina says:

    4 or 5 was the FL margin in 2004?

  207. Apologetic California says:

    NV EVs is actually just 47K gap between D and R. That is nothing. A 55-45 election day win from Mitt will close it.

  208. mark2 says:

    204 evidence that 2012 is not 2008

  209. Waingro says:

    This is gonna be on Les Miles when they blow this….

  210. W.PA Observer says:

    209- W won Florida 52-47- and by 400,000-450,000 votes.

    Figure with a bit of population growth it could be 450,000-500,000 win this time around if it gets to 5 or 6 points.

  211. jason says:

    If we don’t have FL we are screwed. Losing is not an option. I hope by the time Ohio is decided we have already won FL, NC, VA, and NH.

  212. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    That hurt

  213. ReadyFirst says:

    I think it was 5 in 2004 but this year feels different/better. I literally didn’t see my first Zero yard sign this year locally until Wednesday night.

  214. Marv says:

    I’m impressed.

  215. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Coaching lost this

    *sigh*

  216. Tom Gordon says:

    Dave Wasserman at Redistrict:

    VA EARLY VOTE: Telling that the two extremes here are Buchanan (103.3%), a Kerry/McCain coal zone, & Portsmouth (33.8%), Af-Am city.

  217. Marv says:

    #218 was about Alabama’s TD drive.

  218. mark2 says:

    was Tide QB crying?

  219. MD says:

    Sorry MFG. Thought you guys had that one.

  220. jason says:

    The NV numbers do show a narrow Obama victory, but if Romney performs slightly better than expected with Indies he could win.

    At Intrade Romney is at 17%. I think it’s more like 30%.

    Heller is at 80% on Intrade btw.

    Does that make sense? That many ticket splitters?

  221. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Ugh

  222. RottiLargo says:

    Ex ladyfriend from High School/College lives in Minnesota (twin cities area). She says Romney/Ryan surge in the state is for real and His Mittness has a solid shot at winning.

    Right now I have NH, VA, FL, NC, and CO going for R and R.

    I have Minnesota and Nevada barely going to Obama.

    OH, PA, WI, and IA too close to call

    Romney 261
    Obama 223

    Any one of OH, PA, Minnesota, or WI puts Romney over the top OR win Iowa and steal Nevada.

    2 more days to Conservative victory.

  223. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    Miles threw that one away, MD

    Shame…

  224. mark2 says:

    Tide QB has to chill… national championship is going to freak him out

  225. Polaris says:

    I an still sticking with D+2. I may revise this down depending on how I see the undecideds break, but I won’t make any final prediction until I do (and we won’t see that until Monday’s polling).

    -Polaris

  226. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    A
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    h
    g
    g
    g
    g
    g
    g
    g
    !
    !
    !
    !
    !
    !
    !
    !

  227. keystone says:

    If anyone connected to Christie is lurking about, you might want to remind the big guy that obama and his democratic friends will disappear after the electiin. Remember, the msm loved ma erick mxcain when he was criticizing bush, but turned on him without thinking twice.

  228. jason says:

    “New Jersey to Allow Voting by Email, Fax”

    What could go wrong?

  229. Corey says:

    Alabama= elephant logo right?

    Good omen.

  230. Hugh says:

    Go Irish

  231. Tom Gordon says:

    Dave Wasserman:

    VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE (approximately 351,000 votes): 70.5% of ’08 TOTAL statewide, but 75.8% in McCain counties, just 67.6% in Obama counties

  232. Ugh! There went my good mood. Im almost ready to hate this team more then I do the Cheatriots. Someone, STOP BAMA! Bulldogs, Save Us!

  233. Proud Obamacon says:

    Great job Peid Piper Polaris. Keep up the good work!

  234. Tina says:

    My Goodness, they are already screaming voter suppression and fraud in Cuyoaga County (Cleveland). Just listening to the enemy on MSNBC, the Ed Show. He has a black state senator on screaming voter suppression in Ohio. Claiming to be power outages in black precints! Really? Really going hard against Secretary State Husted, saying he will supress the vote in black areas and not count the votes properly. They are already gaming up! Get ready, you wouldn’t be hearing this if O was winning!

    - A poster at the BG Watch Site. They are starting this already?

  235. Corey says:

    Final score today:

    UMass- 0
    Northern Illinois- 63

  236. jason says:

    Not two days yet. We have to set clocks back now.

  237. Polaris says:

    #236 I would laugh like heck if TAMU managed to beat ‘bama next week. No way I’m predicting it, but it would be uproariously funny.

    -Polaris

  238. Tina says:

    NJ is also doing Carter -style gas rationingg.

  239. Waingro says:

    I was looking forward to having all 1 loss SEC teams and rooting for 2 of Oregon, KState and ND to win out.

    My SEC friends are insufferable.

  240. Ted Turner says:

    Not worried about Florida. If Marist is right and it’s O + 6 in OH then it would make sense for O to be +2 in FL. But I will stick with Mason Dixon and Suffolk on FL and they say we are good there.

  241. Waingro says:

    No offense to SEC fans on here!!

  242. phoenixrisen says:

    #238 LOL, told you that they are down huge in Cuyahoga and elsewhere in Northern Ohio. Voter suppression my butt.

  243. Polaris says:

    #237 Honestly if any one person deserves to be derided as the Peid Piper this year, it’s Nate Silver.

    -Polaris

  244. wow Mitt ads saturating the Tampa-St Pete market like never before

  245. Corey says:

    Are we thinking about Virginia enough?

  246. Polaris says:

    #249 Given their track record thus far, I trust that Romney’s team is monitering VA.

    -Polaris

  247. ReadyFirst says:

    Mitt in final central FL appearance Monday at 5.

  248. ParakeetsSupportingTheReelectionOfPresidentRomneyIn2016 says:

    SEC fans ARE insufferable, Waingro, its just true

  249. justsayin' says:

    A note on Nevada…. Alot of those Clark County votes could be Dems voting for Romney. Wynn told his employees if Obama is re-elected they will be losing their jobs.

  250. RottiLargo says:

    “Mitt ads saturating the Tampa-St Pete market like never before”

    Coattails for Mack?

  251. phoenixrisen says:

    #254 I believe so. FL is out of reach for O.

  252. @254 doubtful jul, every Romney ad is followed by Nelson ads telling us how evil Mack is

  253. Clinton's Cigar says:

    WAPO?

  254. TandA says:

    48-48 in WaPo

  255. ReadyFirst says:

    Mack I think is 50/50. People are not excited about him but are less excited about Nelson. Coattails will be a good thing.

  256. phoenixrisen says:

    Tanda, you got internals?

  257. btw when I say doubtful i’m not saying FL is hard for Mitt, I’m 99.9% sure he gots it. Im just saying I DO NOT expect Mack to win, period.

  258. W.PA Observer says:

    251- according to the Romney site, they’re in Columbus Ohio at 6. Virginia in afternoon, Florida at 830 AM (I think it all ends in NH). So last day is FLOHVA- which makes sense.

  259. RottiLargo says:

    FWIW I’ve never seen PAGOPers so confident about winning the state.

    My state Rep buddy thinks Romney-Smith both win and coattail every GOP statewide row office nominee except the AG candidate who is, by all accounts, toast.

    I think that’s a stretch as McCord is likely to beat Irey, even though Diana is one of my favorite candidates (and she is HOT!)

  260. Waingro says:

    WaPo??

  261. Polaris says:

    #258 Not what I was hoping for, but it still not like Obama gained. 4 percent undecided with the incumbant at 48? I’ll take it.

    -Polaris

  262. Apologetic California says:

    Wapo ABC is 48-48.

  263. RB says:

    That is not horrible. Tomorrow Tues falls off the track.

  264. Polaris says:

    Indies tied at 46 in new WAPO poll. I don’t buy a 5pt drop in a single night, but it explains why Romney lost a pt but Obama didn’t gain any.

    -Polaris

  265. Tom Gordon says:

    Romney will be in NoVa on Monday. He’s not taking VA for granted (although I think DW is correct – Romney will win VA).

    In addition to the naturally-strong GOP areas in VA, Romney will run strong in NoVA, including Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William counties.

    And Romney will run very strong in coal counties in the southwest.

    Early votes in Dem areas of VA are only about 2/3 of what they were in 2008.

  266. Mark1971 says:

    Was Tuesday a good Obama day?

  267. ReadyFirst says:

    Author, exactly! I’m so tired of the ad where they show Mack and talk about all his altercations with the law and his Hooters problems. It is effective though as it sticks with you. Nelson looks like a male Joan Rivers though.

  268. Polaris says:

    When does tomorrow’s (today’s) sample roll on?

    -Polaris

  269. relantel says:

    263 – Corbett is to blame for the AG race. Further extension of the Sandusky mess.

  270. Hugh says:

    Happy with 48 48

  271. brucefdb says:

    Rommney closing speech in Colorado just devastating against Chebama. If these speeches mean anything he is just killing him!

  272. Apologetic California says:

    Columbus Dispatch

    “Obama leads by 15 points among the 40 percent-plus of voters who say they have or will cast an early ballot. Romney leads by 11 points with those who plan to vote on Election Day. Through Friday, more than 1.6 million Ohioans had cast an early ballot.”

  273. Jake says:

    How in the hell do you have voter suppression when we haven’t even gotten to election day yet?

  274. TandA says:

    Rs 97-3
    Ds 8-91
    Is 46-46

  275. Waingro says:

    #269, D+4 poll. I’ll take it!!

  276. Diamond Jim says:

    Does anyone know if 40% have actually voted early?

  277. Polaris says:

    #272 Yes

  278. RottiLargo says:

    “Romney will be in NoVa on Monday.”

    Enemy territory.

    A lot of Romney’s moves feel like attempts to coattail Senate candidates.

    Mandel, Smith, Mack, Allen, Thompson.

    Whether or not public polls say so, THEY look like they think they have this won.

  279. Corey says:

    OH poll is D + 4

    Does a 40 percent plus early vote turnout sound accurate based on what the people that follow this know?

  280. Hugh says:

    281 agree. Next election. We need our own bought and paid for pollsters. I feel pretty good not great which I did pre sandy but good

  281. W.PA Observer says:

    269 – “Obama has edge but high GOP turnout could turn Ohio to Romney”

    I believe they had it 49-49 or 50-50 in the last poll in 2004- so yeah, similar situation- very close. D+ 4 poll sample.

  282. Polaris says:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/04/wapo-abc-tracking-poll-all-tied-up-as-romney-draws-even-on-favorability/

    Look at that Indy graph. See the spiking? That’s no indicative of real movement but of bad sampling and/or outlier sample(s). Not a suprise for trying to pol during a hurricane.

    Notice also on the Rs that GOP voters are coming home but Dem voters are not.

    When does WAPO update again?

    -Polaris

  283. Bitterlaw says:

    How do you suppress votes when their is early voting? That seems like a full time job. Wu;dn’t the voter just cme back every day until they got to vote?

  284. last I saw OH EV was around 25%. if polls screw this race up, it’ll be because of overpolling early voters

  285. W.PA Observer says:

    288- Indies went from R +3 with O +1 to R + 7 with R + 1 to even at even, each day- crazy bouncing.

  286. RB says:

    2004 was 50/50
    2008 was 52/46

    They usually are close. I was thinking we needed to be within two points.

  287. Mark1971 says:

    Didn’t the last Susquehanna poll have Romney +4?

  288. Apologetic California says:

    Per RCP, Obama leads in all 12 polls (and one tie) they’re using for state avg in Ohio.

    Last Columbus Dispatch poll had Obama up by 9.

    So basically nearly all polls release this week show Romney actually surging quickly, but the movement is ‘hidden’ because he’s coming from such low points.

  289. Corey says:

    Is this a different Susq PA poll than the one that came out late yesterday that had Romney ahead by 4?

    Even a tie in a PA poll is better than anything I could have ever expected from there. Hope they know what they are doing.

  290. lisab says:

    you guys are like joe hooker

    oooooo … what is lee doing to my flank

    oooooo … what is jackson doing to my other flank

    the battle ground is ohio …

    forget florida, nevada, virgina etc.

    you have to win in ohio. nothing else matters.

  291. Polaris says:

    Remember that even at the height of 2008 Obama-mania, Ohio was only D+5.

    Per GMU and the Ohio SOS (which is where GMU pulls this data) 40% early is NOT reasonable for Ohio.

    Try 30% as of 3 Nov.

    So again the EVs get oversampled in the polls…not as bad as in some but bad enough.

    -Polaris

  292. Waingro says:

    #290, meh. I though that poll was supposed to show a Romney lead? Disappointing actually.

  293. relantel says:

    294/296: different poll – that was October 18th’s for a GOP client; this one is for media client.

  294. arcangel says:

    Not surprisingly it looks like we’ll head into election day with polls that don’t show us what we want to see, but aren’t nearly as devastating as 2008.

    I was hoping the Mittmentum theme would be very public so that I could rest easy for 3 days.

  295. RottiLargo says:

    W. PA Observer,

    Good, you’re here. I have a few region-specific questions for you.

    I’m hearing from everyone that Raja is toast but Houser beats Wozniak. Is that consistant with your birds-eye view?

    How does Critz-Rothfus look?

    I think the Romney blitz torpedoes Critz and Wozniak in Johnstown.

  296. Corey says:

    Oh, an Oct 18 poll would have been very old news. Somehow, I thought it was presented as a link as if it were brand new.

  297. mark2 says:

    OH early voters as of 10/30 just went to the GMU site (not all counties updated) is 28%

  298. Dude says:

    WAPO hedging their bets.

    That will be the pattern for most msm.

    No one wants to be wrong and you’ll be surprised how many ties there are on Monday.

  299. W.PA Observer says:

    Ohio down to turnout, PA down to turnout. It’s all down to turnout. Come get some.

  300. Tom Gordon says:

    Jay Cost (I believe) nailed the other reason for screwy polls — bad LV screens.

    Look at Gallup and the huge difference a tough likely voter screen makes — if I recall, it was about a 4-5 point spread in Romney’s favor between RVs and LVs.

  301. I think Susquehanna is doing a cop-out to be frank. They have Mitt up w/ a paid GOP poll but tied in their none-partisan paid for poll? So if either guy wins they declare they were right. ugh.

  302. Mark1971 says:

    Does anybody know what the party ID was in Ohio 2004?

  303. janz says:

    A great piece by Selena Zito, which captures the Main Street that is in revolt mood, during this election.

  304. phoenixrisen says:

    40D/36R/24I in Columbus Dispatch poll? That is one point less than the D+5 that was seen in 2008. I’m also not buying Obama up 5 in central Ohio. The EVs show a completely different story

  305. Polaris says:

    Actually 47-47 just before an election is a good poll for the challenger. I’ll take it.

    -Polaris

  306. Corey says:

    If we can really win PA, it basically makes OH irrelevant, but I don’t know. I am amazed I am even considering PA a tossup right now.

  307. Waingro says:

    How many people voted in Ohio in 2008??

  308. brucefdb says:

    Intrade is such a joke….any rich lib like Soros could keep Obama looking inevitable for chump change.

    I’ve been a horse player all my life and watching how the money moves can be instructive at times, deceiving at other times.

    Go look. You can buy a couple hundred dollars of Romney at 34, but if you want to buy $100k? Check it out.

    More mind games.

  309. Hugh says:

    313 agreed

  310. bio mom says:

    We are arguing about a tie in…Pennsylvania!! A few weeks ago that would have seemed impossible.

  311. brucefdb says:

    Still feeling good.

  312. mark2 says:

    315 5,773,777

  313. Toledo Steve says:

    No way have 40% of Ohioans already voted. Are they telling us that enormous numbers of people are going to show up and vote Monday? Absurd. This poll is telling us that Rommeys winning Ohio, and anyone on the ground here that’s paying attention will tell you the same thing.

  314. Polaris says:

    #310 DRI for Ohio was R+4 in 2004.

    D36/R40/I24

    -Polaris

  315. Mark1971 says:

    Thanks Polaris

  316. phoenixrisen says:

    If Romney is tied in PA, he’s ahead in Ohio.

  317. W.PA Observer says:

    302- Was just making calls today at a victory center – had some folks up from Texas to help us. Strong turnout operation.

    Raja-Smith is close, so say the polls, tight. Not sure on the outcome as Obama is going to be wrecked in that district at the top of the ticket. But Matt Smith has some pseudo-race baiting ads on Raja (the Republican) being Indian and wanting to outsource jobs to India. Rothfus-Critz is close, but Rothfus is where he needs to be in the North Allegheny suburbs, they’re feeling good albeit it by no means certain. Critz is essentially pretending he’s a Republican in all his ads. The TV is wall to wall ads, mostly GOP and anti-Obama/Critz ones.

    Not sure on Wozniak, didn’t ask- that’s farther east than my territory.

  318. Mark1971 says:

    I think if GOP is really motivated we could get an R+ turnout in OH this year.

  319. Apologetic California says:

    Trib poll shows up in RCP right?

  320. Polaris says:

    #324 Absolutely..and up significantly. WPA votes very much like Eastern Ohio.

    -Polaris

  321. arcangel says:

    The conspiracy theorist in me has been thinking that the overwhelming pro-Obumbler polling would act well as a smoke screen for massive voter fraud.

    If the D’s fraud out a narrow victory and all the polls ‘predicted’ a narrow victory, I think it would be too hard to convince the American public that the election was illegitimate.

    You have to figure that 40% will believe the D’s no matter what. Of the remaining 60%, how many could realistically be convinced that so many polls were wrong.

    With all the reports of fraud already popping up (machines registering Romney votes for Obama), I wonder how improbable this scenario is.

  322. Corey says:

    I may need to enter a coma until this is over.

    I’m afraid to be too positive and I get angry at myself for being too negative.

  323. Waingro says:

    #320, so only 28% of the raw numbered ’08 electorate have voted so far. The 40% figure is garbage.

    And remember: many evangelicals sat out in Ohio in ’08.

  324. Polaris says:

    #327 It should assuming Bevan isn’t changing his standards (again).

    This is for a media client and thus not a partisan poll.

    -Polaris

  325. Tom Gordon says:

    If PA is tied or very close, can Romney really be down in Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio?

    If Wisconsin is MOE, and Minnesota is in spitting distance, can Romney really be down in VA, FL, NH, OH?

  326. justsayin' says:

    Favorable/Unfavorable for Pennsylvania:

    Romney 48/44

    Obama 48/47

  327. Marv says:

    Hedging their bets:

    “The “Ohio firewall” precariously stands for President Barack Obama, but a strong Republican turnout could enable Mitt Romney to tear it down on Election Day.”

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/04/dispatch-poll-shows-ohio-a-toss-up.html

  328. Corey says:

    Less ads were run for months against Romney in PA as opposed to OH.

    That’s just a theory that will be used.

    VA was more blue in 2008 than Ohio was, yet everyone thinks VA will be the easier to flip.

    The polls in NH are too all over the place to really get a gauge on it there I think.

  329. Polaris says:

    #333 No. Theat means one or the other is wrong. This latest PA poll is done using a near even national DRI modelling assumption. It shows PA in play (like it was in 2004). The other polling you mention parties like it’s 2008.

    -Polaris

  330. jason says:

    2008 ? Obama

    RCP 2012 2008

    FL – 1.4 + 1.8
    CO + 0.6 + 5.6
    VA – 0.3 + 3.8
    OH + 2.9 + 3.2
    IA + 2.5 +15.3
    NH + 1.5 + 9.6
    PA + 4.8 + 7.6
    NC – 3.8 + 2.6
    MN + 5.8 +10.3
    WI + 5.0 +11.0

  331. Robbie says:

    I could be wrong, but I think the PA poll from Susquehanna linked the other day was the old poll from two weeks ago.

  332. RottiLargo says:

    PA is definitely in play. Lehigh Valley and most of the Philly collar counties (sans MontCo) go for Romney Ryan. Chester and Bucks won’t be particularly close. Bitterlaw’s home county of DelCo looks like a push.

    Southern Coal counties (Monroe and Carbon) will go for Romney. Lackawanna and Luzerne will be very close.

    Romney cleans up in Western PA but Alleghany County has me worried. W. PA Observer is based there, I believe.

    Traditionally Dem Cambria county (Johnstown being the County seat that propped up Murtha) will go for the good guys by a bigger than usual margin and torpedo Critz re election bid.

    So who wins? Romney has the better GOTV machine.

    Obama has Philly and Pittsburgh (and the MontCo morons).

    Turnout, turnout, turnout!

  333. Corey says:

    Mr. Ohio, tear down this wall!

  334. Toledo Steve says:

    It isn’t going to be D+4 in Ohio. I expect a push. Did anyone notice the small crowds that greeted Obama and Clinton in northern Ohio? I’ve been saying it here repeatedly it it bears repeating: Obama is not going to get the margins he needs in northern Ohio. There is no enthusiasm for him here, no energy.
    R turnout is going to put Ohio in Romney’s column. Ohioans are going to walk over broken glass to vote against O.

  335. mark2 says:

    331 1,622,272 voted out of 1,628,013 requested ballots

  336. Polaris says:

    #338 Yeah, that list shows it perfectly. Which one of those trends doesn’t belong?

    -Polaris

  337. phoenixrisen says:

    #321 It’s silly Toledo Steve. Just crazy

  338. Apologetic California says:

    The kiddie diddlers at BBC actually has a poll tracker. 49-49.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19415745

  339. W.PA Observer says:

    325- To follow up for Jul- some guys I know that work for the state party were in Ohio a number of weeks back– the PA push is, as some suspected, is focused now en masse due to it being an election day state- at this point Ohio has been so hit that between voter contacts and the early vote it’s hard to do much more there. When asked how they/ other contacts felt on Ohio, the continual comment was “tight”, “tight, close”, “going to be tough but it’s winnable”, “hopeful but its tight.”, etc. The PA push is genuine as it’s a big bang for the buck in the last week.

  340. BamaBo says:

    I see Bama is not getting much love on here for pulling it out against LSU but that’s okay. LSU played a great game and Tiger Stadium is an outstanding venue for a football game. If any of you sports fans not from the south have not experiended an SEC football game on the campus of one better teams in the conference then put it on your bucket list.

    For politics, I don’t know about other red states like Alabama but Obama has absolutely destroyed the Alabama Democrat party. They have one official left elected statewide and she will be thrown out on Tuesday. It’s to the point where only in counties that are majority minority or over 40% minority counties that you have a democrat presence. There have been over 50 white democrats switch to the GOP at the state and county level in the last two years. The voter intensity for conservatives in Alabama is as high as I have ever seen it. There is no complacency here even though Alabama will be called at 7:01 pm Tuesday.

  341. Joe-FL says:

    #s 1-300. You right wing radical extremists are delusional and pathetic! Get ready for the O train baby! The O train’s rolling and bringing all the undesirable minorities you’re all so afraid of…

  342. Polaris says:

    #343 Which means the EV is nearly done, court order or no court order.

    -Polaris

  343. Robbie says:

    Romney went from +19 to even with Independents in just nine days.

  344. Polaris says:

    #350 Cont. No way it’s 40%…try 30% being very generous.

    -Polaris

  345. I will say this doesnt make sense to see PA tied but O ahead in OH

  346. mark2 says:

    349 was Obama your 1st?

  347. Crymedogg says:

    #339…it is but I’ll take the new one at 47/47..this has been an incredible week..lets step back and look at this from afar….Romney and Obama are deadlocked in PA but Romney could lose the PV and EV…No freaking way! Think about that, who thought on October 1st that Romney and Obama would be battling over PA on November 4th? Amazing…….

  348. TandA says:

    On WaPo, internals adjust to a 0.5 drop since yesterday, not a full point. Indies is disappointing especially as it occurred in Ras and PPP tracking. In my database, Romney has lost 10 pts with indies since last weekend. He now leads them by only 2 pts. Hard to argue all that movement across 10 plus polls is just noise.

    On CD OH, if early vote is 40%, then with the splits, Romney would lead 50.3-49.7. Since EV is not that high, he probably leads by more. Assuming EV ends at 35%, then it is 50.95-49.05 for Romney.

    Tie in PA is great.

  349. Robbie says:

    I believe, until proven wrong, PA is fool’s gold.

  350. Crymedogg says:

    #357…of course

  351. Bitterlaw says:

    Crymedog – I always said PA was in play. I statrted at 5050 a few weeks ago and moved it to 61.3% chance for Romney last week. I say ROmney wins it 51-49. If i am wrong, I will not run from it. MD and MFG will make me own it forever.

  352. W.PA Observer says:

    Also- for non-PA people, Allegheny county is Pittsburgh and its inner-suburbs. Generally a good night for a Republican has them get within 10 points there. An absurdly good night sees them winning it. Toomey lost it 54-45, and by 40,000 votes. Corbett won it by 400 votes against the sitting Allegheny County Executive (for governor)which was both hilarious and intentional- Corbett is from Allegheny and he had guys trying to gin up the last bit of votes there to pull off a win once it was clear the state was going to him. The growing areas of Allegheny are trending Republican. Every county around it is trending Republican at this point.

  353. phoenixrisen says:

    #357 Great Wobbie, Obama is only rushing in Bill Clinton to do stops and frantically trying to put together a ground game in PA to compete with Romney’s. Romney has got the best chance to pick up PA since Bush 41 picked it off in 1988.

  354. Toledo Steve says:

    Hard to believe all those indies would swing back to O just because he put on a bomber jacket and made out with traitor Christie.

  355. Polaris says:

    #356 Assuming it’s real and not an artifact of trying to poll in a hurricane (which is not the same thing as noise but I digress), it may be the simply tendency you see a few days before an election for the undecideds and indies to give the incumbant one last long look before deciding. What strikes me so far about the polling (such as it is) is the persistantly high levels of undecideds.

    It’s one reason I am making no predictio for record until Monday. I want to see how the undecideds crystalize and I won’t see that until Monday.

    -Polaris

  356. RottiLargo says:

    Much as I want to win OH and PA, the psychotic rage the lefties would fly into if we won because of WI, would be almost too delicious not to hope for.

  357. Corey says:

    359. You didn’t publicly predict victory for yourself in 2002 did you?

  358. “You didn’t publicly predict victory for yourself in 2002 did you?”

    heh

  359. Bitterlaw says:

    The Eagles don’t ply until Monday night. Another reason for people to go to rallies. I don’t know if CLinton is still a big draw or not.

  360. MD says:

    270 – D+4 and they give themselves multiple face saving statements.

  361. Toledo Steve says:

    If the PA poll is right, PA and OH are going red Tuesday. O will do well to get 48 or 49 in that scenario.

  362. RottiLargo says:

    Bitter,

    How does DelCo look?

  363. Crymedogg says:

    Bitter…I agree with you..I was taking a jab at Robbie…I’m in MD and I’m keeping my fingers crossed..Unfortunately, my vote doesn’t matter much in this state..And I work in the People’s republic of Montgomery County

  364. W.PA Observer says:

    356- WaPO has been bouncing like crazy with Indies lately- yesterday saw Romney gaining 4 with Indies to go to + 7- that is not the type of switch that happens overnight. Ras today actually had Romney go back up 5 with indies (and he has swings of all kinds with them). PPP- well, who knows?

  365. mark2 says:

    360 W. PA what else should we look for in PA

  366. Robbie says:

    Clinton may be headed to PA, but the state hasn’t gone R since 1988. W put everything into that state in 00 and 04, but lost. Maybe this time is different, but we will see.

  367. WillBest says:

    @ 329 the only fraud you can do with fully manned polling precincts is vote flipping. As in the republican monitors will notice vote shaving or stuffing.

  368. Crymedogg says:

    I’m not buying the new indy numbers

  369. Bitterlaw says:

    Author – Public predictions to whom? Fattah wouldn;t debate me and my name appeared in the Inquirer 3 times – the da I won the uncontested primary, the endorsement for Fattah, and the day after i got bounced. The next time will probably be my obituary.

  370. W.PA Observer says:

    364- Ed Schultz might actually attempt to murder one of his co-hosts live on MSNBC if that happened.

  371. Polaris says:

    #368 I noticed that too. *Lots* of weasel language. I suspect they don’t trust their own polling or numbers.

    They shouldn’t.

    -Polaris

  372. Tom Gordon says:

    Not doubting your numbers, but Romney losing 10 pts w/indies in one week makes no sense.

    There may be a bit of a Sandy bump for O, but I can’t see a 10 pt bump w indies.

    Almost since Obama was elected, indies have left him in droves. The indie numbers have tracked close to the Republican numbers in terms of Obama Job Approval.

    I can’t see anything Obama has done in the last week (let alone the last 3 months) to change that.

  373. MD says:

    Author – that is why I do NOT trust polls paid for by any political party. You are paid to get the result the client wants.

  374. Corey says:

    Bitter, since you are in Wikipedia, we can make a page for you. Just say the word.

  375. Polaris says:

    #372 Crazy one day bouncing is indicative of poor sampling which shouldn’t be any wonder right now.

    -Polaris

  376. TandA says:

    363. We will have a lot of national polling over the next 24 hrs … Ras and WaPo updates, maybe IBD back online, plus a lot of final polls for the Monday papers. And Battleground on Monday morning. We need to see some good indie numbers.

  377. Toledo Steve says:

    The bitter clingers in PA have never had a good relationship with O. I don’t think Bush ever really appealed to them enough to,take the state.

  378. Bitterlaw says:

    Jul – I see alot more ROmney and Smith Signs than Obama and Casey signs in Delaware county. In 2008, the McCain sign in front of my house was one of about 10 in my town. There were dozens of Obama signs in 2008. It is completely flipped this time. That is my anecdotal evidence for what it’s worth.

  379. Dylan says:

    I listened to romney’s Colorado speech tonight. INSPIRING. I mean, it was truly a great speech and it was delivered by a man who is a quality human being and quite deserving of the presidency. If the country rejects this man in favor of Obama, it just means the country is gone. Dead. Buried. There is no other way to put it. This is an existential election for what remains of this country.

  380. MD says:

    Jul – Obama will win Delco. Maybe with only 54 or 55 but he will win it.

  381. Corey says:

    Do those of you have who houses, all have signs up? If so, for whom?

  382. W.PA Observer says:

    373- As far as I can tell- look for winning Bucks County and Chester/Berks by decent margins in the East. Look for a decent night around the Lehigh Valley counties and for us to be good in the Northeast. Look for huge margins in Central PA- namely over 65% in York and Lancaster (might have to push 70 really). Out west for the old blue collar traditional dem counties of Beaver and Washington to go red (they went for Kerry and McCain). Look for big margins in Westmorland County and Butler. Hope Allegheny is reasonably close- same with Montco-Delco. Any other PA guys disagree with that?

  383. we should mention how he’s become a celebrity in HHR

  384. Polaris says:

    #384 We might not get them (good indie numbers) not because things have changed very much (they might have changed a little) but because it’s probably still too hard to do quality national polling right now…and so the true numbers might not be apparent.

    That sucks, but that’s the way it is. All national polls right now are unreliable.

    -Polaris

  385. mark2 says:

    389 yup…Romney.. had to take them down for Sandy but they are up again

  386. Bitterlaw says:

    That’s ok, Corey. MD would hack my wikipedia page in minutes. It would be pretty ugly (pretty funny, too.)

  387. TandA says:

    380. I include all non-online polls with internals, so it is what it is. Ras and WaPo both had R up high teens/low 20s for a while late last week, so some of the 13 pt spread was noise, but iIexpected it to settle back at 7-9, not 2.

  388. Mr.Vito says:

    We have Romney signs up… first political donation ever… first signs ever.

  389. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey – I only have a ROmney sign. Smoth gurds his like gold. Meehan doesn’t need any. He will cruise to re-election.

  390. Ben Romney says:

    Its a D+10 poll!! in 2008 it was only D+7!!Will be D+4 this time!

    PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): JA: 48/48 unskewed: 44.9/49.8
    Barack Obama (D_inc) 52%
    Mitt Romney (R) 46%
    unskewed: Obama/Romney: 49.6/49.6

    Casey/Smith: 52/44
    unskewed: Casey/Smith: 49.9/46.3

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PAWI_1103.pdf

  391. Ben Romney says:

    PRESIDENT – WISCONSIN (PPP): JA: 46/49 unskewed: 44.8/53
    Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
    Mitt Romney (R) 48%
    unskewed: Romney/Obama: 50.9/48.7

    Baldwin/Thompson: 51/48
    unskewed: Thompson/Baldwin: 51.1/48.5

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PAWI_1103.pdf

  392. W.PA Observer says:

    397- you know a Republican near philly is unassailable when the Philly Inquirer endorses them to give themselves a pat on the back for token bipartisanship.

  393. Corey says:

    I had dinner last night in a local restaurant and within 5 minutes, talked to two State Reps, running for reelection.

    The first was my current GOP State Rep, who I’ve been a longtime supporter of. He’s been redistricted to almost all new territory and is having to run against an incumbent Democrat State Rep. I think he was just there to pick up dinner, and not campaign. Really hope he wins.

    But then, in walked the current Democrat incumbent of the new district to which I had been redistricted who is in a tough race. I have never met her before, and she was going table to table to talk to people, so of course I had to put her on the spot. She realized pretty quickly she made a mistake coming to my table.

    I just wish I had the campaign lit for her Republican opponent with me (was using it to go door to door in my precinct today) because I would have had no choice but to follow her from table to table talking about her opponent. It would have been pretty awkward for me, but I would have had to do it until she left.

  394. mark2 says:

    390 thx for the insight

  395. Proud Obamacon says:

    Pollsters need to get it right. The right wing agenda is over for Crapmussen and friends.

    Now its time to get it right, and I’m sure they will.

    Obama 51-28, 332-205

  396. RottiLargo says:

    I finally put a Romney/Ryan sticker on my car last night. I had no intention of doing so, but one of my neighbors defaced my “Fire Obama” sticker so, that pushed me over the edge.

  397. W.PA Observer says:

    402- Well, for an R to win PA alot of things have to go right. Fortunately these things tend to go right alongside each other at the same time.

  398. Bitterlaw says:

    The slum city of Chester helps pull Delaware County over to the Dem side. Radnor Township is actually in the talking stages of trying to move to become part of either Montgomery County (which it borders on the north and east side of the township) or Chester COunty (on the westerns side of town).

  399. Proud Obamacon says:

    Should be 51-48 LOL

  400. Corey says:

    I really want to put a Romney-Ryan sticker on my car, but I live in Cook County and am always parked outdoors (and have GOP as part of my license plates.) I am certain that something would happen to my car.

  401. Polaris says:

    #403 Actually they don’t. The pollsters can stay in business indefinately as long as they are paid, and as long as they give what their clients want to hear, they’ll stay in business. PPP(D) is among the worst in this regard (advocacy polling)

    -Polaris

  402. Travis says:

    PA gone for Capt Gutsy Call? Ouch

  403. Zogby is still in business, just sayin’

    btw I wouldnt be caught dead w/ an RR sticker where I live, D+11 district

  404. RottiLargo says:

    Bitter,

    If you want a Smith sign, I have a few.

  405. W.PA Observer says:

    409- Prime example- Zogby. He lit himself aflame in 2004.

  406. Bitterlaw says:

    I would put a Romney magnet on my car. I have a sticker but haven’t put it on because they are a pain to take off after the election.

  407. mark2 says:

    Cook county..yikes..don’t do it..just vote and sneer at them as you vote

  408. Corey says:

    I came across an old Ken Salazar for U.S. Senate bumper sticker yesterday from his 2004 Colorado Senate campaign that he had autographed and somebody had once sent to me, and I just ripped it up, because why not. This election is having that effect.

  409. Bitterlaw says:

    Jul – Send one to Dave Wissing for his collection. I appreciate the offer but I’m not driving up to the Allentown rest stop to meet you.

  410. Corey says:

    When I did vote in suburban Cook County last week, the people in line sure looked like Romney voters for the most part.

  411. Mr.Vito says:

    “(and have GOP as part of my license plates.)”

    Me too…. “GOPHILS”

  412. Mr.Vito says:

    “btw I wouldnt be caught dead w/ an RR sticker where I live, D+11 district”

    Ironically, you probably would be caught dead with an RR sticker then.

  413. RottiLargo says:

    Bitter,

    I’d be happy to run one down to you after work tomorrow. I’ll be in Quakertown at 3 anyway and it would be easy enough to run down the turnpike.

    I have Irey-Vaughn and Maher signs as well.

    Picked up an Assistant Manager gig at a seasonal retail store. $12 an hour and it’s about the same as I’d draw on unemployment.

    I’d rather work for it.

    I have new political employment lined up for January. Late December, if the election goes well.

  414. Mr.Vito says:

    “When I did vote in suburban Cook County last week, the people in line sure looked like Romney voters for the most part.”

    Were they wearing top hats and monocles?

  415. “Ironically, you probably would be caught dead with an RR sticker then.”

    heh, good point

  416. W.PA Observer says:

    Oh, just read this at Ace of Spades- but be aware of it. On election night in Ohio the Secretary of State apparently says they will report the early-voting first. So gird yourselves if it looks bad initially (or if it looks better for Romney, get really excited) as the election day vote comes in later. Also, for those watching PA- usually in this state, Philly reports first- so it usually consists of the R catching up gradually. In 2010 they called it for Corbett while he still trailed in counted votes, as it was obvious from the non-Philly counties.

  417. Walt says:

    Jenny Blue Polls has me worried.

    There has not been one single red poll showing me in the lead.

    Boo f-ing hoo!!!

  418. Mtttttttt says:

    Based on ballots already cast in states that allow early voting, Mitt Romney would need to win 65 percent of remaining voters in North Carolina, 59 percent in Iowa and Colorado, 58 percent in Nevada, and 55 percent in Florida and Ohio.

  419. Corey says:

    422. More like walkers, canes, and Korean War vet baseball caps.

  420. W.PA Observer says:

    426- there’s no possible way to know what the tabulated numbers are in those states- just the party ID’s in some cases.

  421. Ben Romney says:

    PPP: MN: JA: 49/45 unskewed: 45.8/47.1

    Obama/Romney: 53/45
    unskewed: Obama/Romney: 50.6/47.9

    Klobuchar/Kurt Bills: 62/32
    unskewed: Klobuchar/Bills: 59.1/36.8

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf

    very strange indies are 39/47 approve but 48%voting for him???

  422. Bitterlaw says:

    Walt – You are going to win. I told your local paper and radio station that you have secured the return of the Harper’s Ferry Bell that was stol…liberated by lisab’s ancestors. I told them it will be delivered on Thursday after the election so you should get the boost on election day.

  423. voice of reason says:

    Romney was up one in MN? Tied in DV? and down in OH. Is Ohio middle earth?

  424. Polaris says:

    #426 You do realize that there has been at least a net 8% swing towards the GOP (and that’s assuming Indies haven’t changed at all…but it looks like they are going ROmney rather than Obama this time) in the NC early vote, and he was BARELY able to take the state with 0.25% of the vote? Right?

    I suspect NC is called immediately for Romney on election day.

    -Polaris

  425. Annie says:

    There is no way of knowing who the “early votes” were actually cast for. It is very possible that a lot of the votes being lumped into the Democrat column based solely on party ID have voted for Romney, like the “Reagan Democrats” of the 1980s.

  426. Corey says:

    I keep seeing DV on here.

    Can someone help me out with what that means?

  427. Polaris says:

    #434 It’s a humorous take in PA. I’m sure others can explain more.

    -Polaris

  428. Polaris says:

    #435 DV==PA (with humor)

  429. GF (Mitt 301 - Zero 237) says:

    Corey, that would be “Dumfuqqvania,” as named by the Birdman of the South, MFG.

  430. I propose that if O wins OH, we give it a DV like nickname

  431. Walt says:

    OK.

    I called Chris Christie and told him to forget about flying down here for the photo op and the hug.

    Told him he has become kryptonite for center right Repubs like me.

    The big guy was steamed.

    His helicpoter was already over Frederick, MD airspace when he turned around.
    **********************

    Bitter,

    What kind of stapler should I use when I go knock on my opponent’s door?

  432. voice of reason says:

    The little noticed fact on the NV early voting is the 25% increase in independents. Let me ask, did the increase come to re-elect Obama or throw the bum out?

  433. Bitterlaw says:

    MFG calls PA Dumfuqvania because it hasn’t voted for a GOP residential candidate since 1988. He concveniently ignores the fact that it, like Louisiana, has a Republican governor and Senator. He is correct about the Presidential voting history but I hope the name will be lifted in 3 days.

  434. Mr.Vito says:

    DV = Dumbfuqqvania…

    It is MFG’s term.

  435. Bitterlaw says:

    Walt – It should be more for the visual than the effect. Nothing bigger than 1/2 inch staples. You want to pierce the skin but not crack the skull.

  436. W.PA Observer says:

    441- I believe that if PA goes Republican this week, considering it’s constantly referred to as “Fool’s Gold”, that it be christened – The Mother Lode, The Gold Strike, Penn’s Horde, Actual Gold, or the Crown Jewels.

  437. voice of reason says:

    @438 agreed. But I can’t think of anything good off the top of my head. IP may come up with a good term.

  438. voice of reason says:

    However on Nov. 7th DV will have two Gop senators and LA will only have one.

  439. GF (Mitt 301 - Zero 237) says:

    If ANYONE can christen Ohio with a derogatory name, it will be IP.

  440. mark2 says:

    Romney campaign to create a Dumbfuqqvania ad in 5-4-3 seconds..oh look it is already posted to youtube and playing in Philly area

  441. George W says:

    Also note that the Ohio Dispatch poll is a “mail in” poll, respondents mailed in their responses via u.s. mail so I do wonder about is accuracy in determining likely/unlikely voters

  442. RottiLargo says:

    If Ohio goes to Obambi

    GH
    Government Hoehio?

  443. W.PA Observer says:

    Also, apparently the O campaign is announcing that Bill Clinton is doing 4 events in Pennsylvania on Monday. 4- the day before the election with the Big Dog. Yeah.

  444. mark2 says:

    if OH goes Obama..OH will be christened Obamaphonia

  445. voice of reason says:

    Wenzel and Susquehanna seem to be the only accurate pollsters along with MD in FL, Roanoke in VA. Funny how they are not tied to the MSM (aka Obama controlled media) or Daily Kos.

  446. Travis says:

    451. Bbbbbuut bbuut bbut. Nate Silver and RCP don’t say PA is a swing state!

  447. RottiLargo says:

    Wenzel has Akin ahead.

    Colour me skeptical.

  448. phoenixrisen says:

    #449 *facepalm*

  449. mark2 says:

    454 actually RCP has PA and MI as swings

  450. lisab says:

    romney is going to beat obama in florida

    worse than meade beat lee at gettysburg

    in his quest to end slavery in the south!

  451. Corey says:

    I just realized the largest public gathering Tuesday night in Chicago will be at the United Center when the Bulls host the Orlando Magic.

    With that crowd, I am somewhat worried about riots if the election goes badly… for Romney.

  452. Mr.Vito says:

    To mirror MFGs DV acronym, I would suggest

    DH = Douche-hio

  453. phoenixrisen says:

    FWIW, Susquehenna came within 2 points of nailing 2008 presidential election vote in PA. They had it Obama +8, it wound up being Obama 10. They are pretty spot on. Any idea on the internals with their poll release today?

  454. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    @458 Florida is OURS!

  455. Walt says:

    We change the clocks back one hour tonight.
    *******************************
    At first I was mad about that because that means the election is one more hour away than I had originally planned.

    But now I am happy, because I think Romney benefits the most with the extra hour of YoMama campaign unraveling.

  456. Polaris says:

    #462 Mason-Dixon and Suffolk both beg to differ.

    -Polaris

  457. Corey says:

    Tonight we change the clocks, and hopefully on Tuesday we change Presidents.

    Goodnight.

  458. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    @463 See if you can change it back to 2004 so you can feel what its like to win an election again!

    Tee hee

  459. Polaris says:

    Good night everyone.

    -Polaris

  460. mark2 says:

    oh jenny blue balls is back…spent the night rubbing one out looking at your Biden poster…hope your better

  461. W.PA Observer says:

    466- you must have been comatose for 2010 I presume? Or merely a low-information voter?

  462. sir A says:

    I’ve been out flyering. Did Bama win?

  463. voice of reason says:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2954462/posts

    This tells the story of who is really winning.

  464. Bitterlaw says:

    O-hell-noooooooooo!

    I posted my prediction. Ohio goes blue and PA goes red for a grand score of 311 Romney

  465. WillBest says:

    I have a R/R sign. My district went 72% for BO in 2008. Today the R/R signs outnumber BO signs about 4 to 1. Some have been up for several weeks so we don’t even have anybody stealing them. In 08 there were zero McCain signs.

  466. Great Liberal says:

    You guys just don’t get it!Obama will be Relected on Nov 6th. Book it!!

  467. voice of reason says:

    You would think with the Obama media they would be pumping out stories like how humorous and giddy Obama was. All the fun of the trail stories would be 25 a day. I looked and all the happy trail Obama stories … crickets.

  468. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    @474 I love smart men!

  469. Walt says:

    Bitter,

    10-4 on the stapler.

    I’ll put the industrial sized one that shoots inch n=long staples back in the garage.
    *************************************
    BTW Harpers Ferry is NOT in my district, so I don’t think getting the bell back will help me much here, except in the spillover sympathy vote.

  470. phoenixrisen says:

    #474 You just don’t get it, Barack and Michelle Obama are going to get their permanent vacation to Hawaii in January ;)

  471. voice of reason says:

    Obama is going straight to the trash heap of history.

  472. lisab says:

    the bell is ours

    at my suggestion, we just had it engraved with the slogan

    “lee was a sucky general, and got his ass kicked by meade”

  473. Dan says:

    Polaris was the same idiot who was insisting that Obama would lose to McCain in 2008 and that the women in the Democratic Party would flock to McCain to avenge Hillary.

    Anyone who thinks that Romney will win PA is an idiot.

    Plain and simple. It’s about as stupid as saying that Obama will win Missouri

  474. Travis says:

    @White House on Nov 7th (morning)

    Michelle: Dumb*ss Barry. How could you lose to a cracker with magic underwear?

    Preezy Uneezy: ummm ahhhh

    Michelle: America has let us down!

    Preezy Uneezy: Stop your b*tchin’ and get that silverware and China. This sh*t ain’t gonna steal itself.

  475. Walt says:

    Gotta teach SS class tomorrow.

    The lesson is about “hope” and includes how God intervened and shut down the Tower of Babel to show them that “they didn’t build it”.

    Kid…you…not.
    ****************
    Signing off.
    ************************************
    Everyone enjoy your extra 60 minutes.

  476. Travis says:

    Night all.

    GFY Chekote

  477. Dan says:

    This is nothing short of schizophrenia what you people are talking about when it comes to “unskewing” the polls. Romney’s opposition towards bailing out GM is ultimately what will cost him the election. OH is going for Obama.

  478. Walt says:

    lisab,

    Good thing it is Sunday when I am reminded that I must love my enemies and those that wish me ill…:)

  479. WillBest says:

    Obama almost won MO. Lost it by 14,000 votes. Since we are assuming the 2008 electorate that means MO should be a toss up again.

  480. mark2 says:

    Dan must have been in that crowd of 4000 to greet his messiah in OH..go back to your mother’s basement ..loser

  481. phoenixrisen says:

    #490 — REALLY good article and mentions a very subtle point that I missed. When the lion’s share of early voting was happening in mid-October, Romney had a big lead among independents which do vote early as well. Something definitely to keep in mind.

  482. phoenixrisen says:

    The key passage from VFR’s link:

    So, let’s do math: 1.3 million people have participated in early voting in Ohio. Party breakdown is tough but manageable. 29 percent of those people voted in the last Democratic primary, while 23 percent voted in the last Republican primary. And the non-primary voting Ohioans are 47 percent of the early vote.

    The Oct. 11 NBC/WSJ/Marist Ohio poll had Mitt Romney winning independents 49 to 41, an 8-point advantage. For the sake of this analysis, assume that the 47 percent of early voters who did not vote in a partisan primary are ‘independent’. While a new Marist poll was released just hours ago, it is important to remember that the Oct. 11 poll is when a majority of early ballots were being cast.

    That puts early voting looking something like this: President Barack Obama 627,510 votes (48%), Mitt Romney 598,390 (46%) votes, with 54,990 (4%) votes undetermined.

    Assuming the worst for Romney – i.e., independents break evenly and Party ID holds up — there is a 6-point early-vote gap. But if Romney has an 8-point advantage (per the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll) among independents, there is a 2-point gap.

    This is bad news for Democrats.

    In 2010, Governor Strickland and the unions had a 5.6-percent edge against former Congressman John Kasich in early voters. When it came to Election Day voting, voters preferred Kasich 51% to 49%. The election resulted in Kasich defeating the incumbent Strickland 49% to 47%. Early-vote totals and polls this year suggest something very similar could happen Tuesday night.

  483. GF says:

    A little humour from Mitt shows that he is having a good time and probably feels quite confident.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2954462/posts

  484. ejness says:

    Next 48 hours: Polling mania

  485. Apologetic California says:

    Basically, the past decade saw a massive culling of pollsters. Only a few are left that has a historical record going back more ten years, and they’re the ones that are calling it a far different race than the PPPs and Marists of the world.
    http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2012/10/post.php

  486. Apologetic California says:

    The past two decade has some of the worst polling we’ve seen in US history. I didn’t know it was particularly just as bad in 2002.

    “Indeed, as Huffington pointed out, there appeared to be some major misses by the pollsters in the
    Senate and gubernatorial races. In New Hampshire, most polls showed Democrat Jeanne
    Shaheen in a very tight race with (and often ahead of) Republican John Sununu who ended up
    winning by more than 4 points. In Georgia, most polls showed Democratic incumbent Max
    Cleland ahead, but Republican challenger Saxby Chambliss won by nearly 7 points. In the
    Colorado rematch between Republican incumbent Wayne Allard and challenger Tom Strickland,
    polls showed an excruciatingly tight race, but Allard ended up winning by more than 5 points.
    Finally, in Texas, many polls predicted a very tight race between Republican John Cornyn and
    Democrat Ron Kirk, with some polls even showing Kirk slightly ahead. In the end, Cornyn
    ended up winning by nearly 12 points.”

    Yet, we’re suppose to believe that state polls are more reliable?!

  487. Ben Romney says:

    53% Romney
    43% Obama
    2% Johnson
    2% Undecided
    unskewed: Romney/Obama: 54.9/44.4
    By political party, 97 percent of Republicans back Romney while 94 percent of Democrats support Obama. Romney leads among independents, 53 percent to 36 percent.

    By region, Romney leads Obama in the eastern Montana media market, 69 percent to 27 percent; the Billings media market, 63 percent to 34 percent; the Great Falls media market, 51 percent to 44 percent; and the Missoula/Kalispell market 52 percent to 45 percent.

    Obama tops Romney in only the Butte/Helena/Bozeman media market, 51 percent to 44 percent.

    http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/lee-poll-of-montanans-shows-romney-in-lead-over-obama/article_c3b6d14e-2633-11e2-a708-0019bb2963f4.html

  488. Ben Romney says:

    53% Romney
    43% Obama
    2% Johnson
    2% Undecided
    unskewed: Romney/Obama: 54.9/44.4
    By political party, 97 percent of Republicans back Romney while 94 percent of Democrats support Obama. Romney leads among independents, 53 percent to 36 percent.

    By region, Romney leads Obama in the eastern Montana media market, 69 percent to 27 percent; the Billings media market, 63 percent to 34 percent; the Great Falls media market, 51 percent to 44 percent; and the Missoula/Kalispell market 52 percent to 45 percent.

    Obama tops Romney in only the Butte/Helena/Bozeman media market, 51 percent to 44 percent.

    http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/lee-poll-of-montanans-shows-romney-in-lead-over-obama/article_c3b6d14e-2633-11e2-a708-0019bb2963f4.html !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  489. Ben Romney says:

    53% Romney
    43% Obama
    2% Johnson
    2% Undecided
    unskewed: Romney/Obama: 54.9/44.4
    By political party, 97 percent of Republicans back Romney while 94 percent of Democrats support Obama. Romney leads among independents, 53 percent to 36 percent.

    By region, Romney leads Obama in the eastern Montana media market, 69 percent to 27 percent; the Billings media market, 63 percent to 34 percent; the Great Falls media market, 51 percent to 44 percent; and the Missoula/Kalispell market 52 percent to 45 percent.

    Obama tops Romney in only the Butte/Helena/Bozeman media market, 51 percent to 44 percent.

    http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/lee-poll-of-montanans-shows-romney-in-lead-over-obama/article_c3b6d14e-2633-11e2-a708-0019bb2963f4.html MT

  490. GeauxLSU says:

    Won’t be sleeping tonight. Devestated over the loss by my tigers. This means I now have to cheer for the Ducks or God forbid Notre Dame. Also, history shows when Bama wins the LSU game during an election year so do the Dems. Please let’s end that streak. Can’t take 2 losses like this in a week.

  491. SusyQue says:

    New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47 by Fred Barns

    The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
    While Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.

    Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns out.”

    The poll’s election model takes into account variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”

    The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

    UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll’s top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas’s memo that we’re referring to: “In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.”

  492. SusyQue says:

    The 2008 election numbers were:
    obama = 52.92 mcCain = 45.66

    ………………………………..
    2012 projection…
    romney = 52 obama = 47

  493. SusyQue says:

    For the most part we have tolerated a debased biased press/media…may their ratings greatly deminish and another unbiased press/media take their place!

  494. Scott says:

    Mason Dixon has Denny Rehberg(R) up 4 in the Montana Senate race.
    Siena has incumbent Hochel(D) down 1 in the NY-27 House race.
    The Columbus Dispatch Poll shows that Romney has gone from down 9 to down 2 in its poll.Mitt Mo!

  495. Todd McCain says:

    CD hedged on their poll too.

    D+4 is not realistic, neither is 40% EV.

    Could Mittens win Ohio, PA and WI?

  496. Scott says:

    Trolls–read this and weep re: Ohio early voting:

    Bush/McCain Counties
    2008- 568,000
    2012- 580,000

    Kerry/Obama Counties
    2008- 985,000
    2012- 861,000

    Bush/Obama Counties
    2008- 191,000
    2012- 181,000

  497. mtvphil says:

    500: LSU lost to Bama in 1980 and we remember how that turned out, right?

  498. Scott says:

    Trolls–read this and weep re: Wisconsin PPP/Jensen Poll:
    I looked at the PPP/Jensen crosstabs for their most recent Wisconsin poll which shows Obama +3. Catch this:
    (1) Romney holds his base much better than Obama his.In fact,14% of Dems. crossover.
    (2) to give Obama the lead, PPP/Jensen has Obama +17 with Independents,the same spread in 2008.

    PPP/Jensen knows that Obama is toast in Wisconsin.

  499. Will says:

    We placed 3 RR signs at a focal point near our house. These were selectively removed on Friday night. Other signs remained. Is that a sign of desperation when political signs are covertly removed? I would add that there has never been a Obama sign!

    This is in NC.

    Will

  500. Toledo Steve says:

    Three dumbphuqqs just got arrested for stealing Romney yard signs all over Toledo and Perrysburg. Of course it turned out they all worked for one of the many local unions.

  501. ThisElectionWillBeEvenMoreLike1980Than1980Was says:

    IF and ONLY if Ohio goes lost Tuesday said state shall be renamed OhHowDumb

  502. EML says:

    Alright y’all got your extra hour of sleep. Time to get up.

  503. Hampton says:

    Why don’t we hear about this?

    A Canadian company owns the major Green Mtn the major Power company in VT. n Monday they had mobilized a large number of their Trucks and Crews from Canada and Vermont and sent them to a central location in VT to be ready to be deployed to NYC, CT, and NJ for disaster assistance. The UNIONS would not allow the areas to accept their help so they sat for four days letting people suffer. Finally they were allowed to go help in CT. Make Sense?

  504. Ted Turner says:

    Actually went to bed for a while after the WAPO tracker came out so I missed a lot of this fun. The CD Ohio poll is interesting and pretty good for us – certainly this feels more like a race where O could be up + 2 than + 6 as per Marist. (Can we PLEASE have a Mason-Dixon or another Suffolk poll for OH? Maybe the Plain Dealer will come out with one – they have before.) The EV #s may be skewing things – 40% voting early seems high to me, but it is not completely insane because we don’t know what the total turnout will be. In 2008 1,714,812 people voted early in Ohio 29.7% of the total electorate. We’re already at 94.6% of the 2008 EV and we still have this weekend. I am not sure that the 1,628,013 ballots requested is a complete cap on EV – I believe people can still show up early to vote. So I expect more early votes will be cast this year. My sense of it is that the O team is doing a very good job with turnout under trying circumstances – it’s kind of a grim, eat-your-vegetables turnout operation. No glamourous mega-rallies unlike last time around. I am very anxious to see the EV #s reported when Ohio polls close Tuesday night. That’s probably going to tell us who wins.

    I remain cautiously optimistic from all these #s, but remember more EV numbers will come in still. I have to think there will be huge Sunday “souls to the polls” efforts for the Dems today in Ohio.

    Go Big Red.

    TT

  505. Big Joe says:

    test this