Current Electoral College Predictions From YouGov, Ipsos and PPP
A somewhat depressing post, but here it is.
YouGov and The Economist released their final poll and in doing so, released polls for just about every state in the Union. based on their state-by-state polling, they have Barack Obama ahead in Colorado Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire while Romney leads in Florida and North Carolina. All the other states are what you would expect. Basically, YouGov is predicting a 303-235 victory for Barack Obama.
Reuters and Ipsos have released their tracking polls for Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, showing leads for Obama in OH and VA while showing ties in CO and FL. basically Ipsos and Reuters have Obama at 294 Electoral Votes right now based on their polling.
Public Policy Polling have released their final New Hampshire and Iowa polls, again claiming Obama is up in both states. Coupled with all their previous polling, they are right now claiming Obama holds 332 Electoral votes. Of course, they still have to release final polls for Ohio and Florida.
Lots of corrupt GOP officials in a number of states like there were in Nevada last time.
We need real change in the next four off years to get rid of some of these chairmen.
Dave is on the ledge.
Couldn’t Ras find something more productive to poll than IN and MT on the final weekend.
Yeah, Bunu, it was real corrupt for the NV GOP chairman to want to hand out delegates based on the number of votes in the caucuses, instead of letting the Paultards steal the delegates.
Romney will win a close election. We have analyzed these polls to death on the previous thread.
My family is stuck in traffic trying to get to the Romney rally in Morrisville, PA! Huge crowds…tens of thousands there and on their way!!! GO MITT!
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/04/paul-ryan-rally-in-minneapolis-minnesota/
Here is the kind of stuff that keeps me hopeful. This was not what the Sunday before the election was like in 2008.
Dick Morris quadruples down:
http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-blew-it-dick-morris-tv-special-election-alert/
From last post #312..
It’s too late now Christie to say you are supporting Mitt. You made the statement on a sunday afternoon when no one is watching. Everyone was glued to their TV sets last week when you “endorsed” O.
Maine, Colorado, Louisiana, and Alaska were some of the most corrupt, and were states I think should have gone to Ron Paul. Also Missouri to an extent.
WE ARE GOING TO LOSEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
Just kidding, these polls are conducted by morons. It’s not 2008, get over it PPP.
Lot of egg on people’s faces on Nov. 7th.
PPP is all in. All in. I do think Gallup will show a tie or a very close lead for one or the other. JMO. The electorate was shifted thanks to fat load.
To me this is a toss up that comes down to OH. I am trusting on OH.
They are fighting in PA, not Texas. Figure it out.
It would be great to see the msm have to print the following headline on Nov 7
“Stunning Upset for Romney”
All these electoral college predictions have one major flaw….they are based on a 2008 turnout. It ain’t going to happen. God, I hope I am right. If not, Socialism for the USA.
Emerica – Apparently, the voters didn’t care what you thought they should do. Democracy sucks that way for Paulbots.
I warned you guys we will be flying blind after Sandy made landfall. DO NOT TRUST NATIONAL POLLS, even Gallup on Monday.
We will okay and Romney will win the election. A photo-op does not change the fundamentals of an election.
If you look at the Yougov write up, they are hedging. They claim Colorado, Florida, Iowa, NC and VA are toss-ups and that Obama leads by 3 in Ohio while losing Indies 50-39.
They also claim Romney leads Indies by 13% in Nevada.
Well, I’m glad some of you are confident. I fear that you may be a bit detached from reality. The debt, the economy, and jobs don’t matter. This election is about gay marriage and “those Republicans who said it’s good for women to get raped”. This is what the low info voter who is brainwashed by the liberal media believes. Don’t underestimate the stupidity of the general population.
The Susquehanna poll for PA which shows a tie is flawed. Seriously overweighted white voters. 90%. Blacks at 6%, Latino’s at 1%. Not a chance that happens.
Maybe I’m just an eeyore, but I don’t think we can underestimate the importance of these crowd sizes at R/R events. I believe enthusiasm is more realistically reported by what’s happening on the ground, then what some pollster is telling us. I also happen to believe that the evangelical vote this year could be the suprise of the election. Not hearing much about it, but these people are going to show up this year. They didn’t in 2008.
Do you all remember when MSM had egg on it’s face in 2002 and 2004 when they said the Republicans were not going to take over the Senate and increase their senate majority, respectively? I still remember James Carville with the bag over his head.
Here is the kind of stuff that keeps me hopeful. This was not what the Sunday before the election was like in 2008.
==============================
No, it’s not. The question is, is it enough?
All these pollsters have it close enough they can claim to nail it if Romney wins.
Romney wins because evil never prevails.
EML – Of every 10 people I talk to, about 6 are seriously uninformed. It is downright scary.
Massive decrease in early/absentee voting in Chicago. I know it doesn’t matter much, for Presidential race. Just saying.
PA rally looks huge on CSPAN.
The Illinois Republican party claims early and absentee voting has precipitously fallen since the 2008 presidential election.
According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of voters, since the last election.
State polls are polling like it’s 2008, national ones not so much (D+2 to D+4). The gap is striking.
I hope Romney forces Obama to lose because of my state
21 How does that make you an eeyore? More like an optimist, just like me.
“A photo-op does not change the fundamentals of an election” – THIS – the only impression Christie made was a deep one in the cushion of his GOV’s chair. The cascade is happening, just sit back, relax, and enjoy the coming meltdown of the Left…
DRUDGE: Fearing Romney victory, EPA plans post election anti-coal regulation…
NY hints at extending Election Day — as much as 20 days!
PA is 84% white, do whites traditionally turnout that strongly compared to AA’s?
29 is that Illinois republicans or population in general
Friends,
If I know Scott Rasmussen, he will be releasing polls from each of the battleground states tomorrow.
He will, most likely, release a final battleground states poll tomorrow.
If Rasmussen releases his party ID for October, then we will know what the true party ID will be on Tuesday.
All of these polls are dispiriting but remember, Scott Rasmussen has never been wrong with the correlation between party ID and turnout.
I will make my post for Tuesday momentarily.
Frank
Megaupload founder unveils file-sharing sequel
Fearing Romney victory, EPA plans post election anti-coal regulation…
35.NY hints at extending Election Day — as much as 20 days!
==============================
No worries, the NY Legislature can’t get a damn thing done.
#31, would be nice. You notice a big difference from 2008 in MN? I know when I was at the convention in 2008, it was all Obama throughout the Twin Cities.
why would ny need to extend voting?
Face reality, Romney is going to lose. Rasmussen is not taking a stand, all the national polls are trending to Obama and Pew who called both 2004 & 2008 on the nose have Obama winning 50-47.
Romney is in Pa because he is desperate, all losing republicans end up in Pa looking for a miracle. Not saying it’s a sure thing but my guess is Obama wins.
We on the right need to face reality and quit bellyaching about skewed polls.
Some of us don’t want our country to become Maryland… so I think we’ll choose to keep believing… thanks.
Giants miss FG, Steelers come right down the field and get one of their own. Should’ve been 17-7, now it’s 14-10.
Morris, Rove, Will, Bergundy, and myself are all
predicting a rather easy Romney victory. Come and join us.
The NY Strips are in the fridge, the fine cigars aging in a humidor, and the gin and tonics waiting patiently to pass over my lips as we celebrate the election of Mitt Romney as prez elect tues night at 9pm arizona time.
53hrs 5min until Romney is Prez elect.
Romney 350
NJ residents displaced by storm can vote by email
———————————
what could go wrong?
i voted sixteen hundred times in nj so far from a nigerian email
Jeez, I leave this morning after some good polls and come back to people hysterical over Pew.
Friends,
This is the real me. This is a copy of my post on the guessing thread.
295
249
49
51.2%
Please be right, Scott.
Frank
Pew is legitimately bad news
Fl update:
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/04/florida-early-vote-results-more-bad-news-for-obama/#comments
I predicted Romney would will with 271, I feel like this will be a close election, maybe its because I am not used to being in a swing state in so many years.
Vote\write-in Ron Paul on Nov sixth not Romney\Obama
36 – No and I really shouldn’t have to explain why the 6% figure is very low when the state is comprised of 11.8% black people. For a non-AA Dem, maybe that is somewhere near reality although I suspect still a little low. I could buy 9% and 4% for blacks and latino’s respectively but 6 and 1? No way.
Can anyone give us a heads-up on how the Presidential race is going in Virginia? Anecdotal evidence is fine.
The decision to allow a transgender 45-year-old college student who identifies as a woman but has male genitalia to use the women’s locker room has raised a fracas among parents and faith-based organizations, who say children as young as 6 years old use the locker room.
The locker room at Evergreen College in Olympia, Wash., is shared with the Capital High School swim club and a children’s swim academy, along with the students at Evergreen.
“The college has to follow state law,” Evergreen spokesman Jason Wettstein told ABC News affiliate KOMO. “The college cannot discriminate based on the basis of gender identity. Gender identity is one of the protected things in discrimination law in this state.”
But according to parents, the fact that the student has exposed her male genitalia, in one instance in the sauna, is cause for concern.
“[A mother] reported her daughter was upset because she observed a person at the women’s locker room naked and displaying male genitalia,” said a police report filed in September by a mother on behalf of her 17-year-old daughter.
cspan PA rally link
In the meantime, I continue to be troubled by these polls leaning towards Obama, including the most recent Pew one. However, I have to remind myself that Pew has leftist underpinnings of late attached to it’s firm. As for the others, they seem torqued in a way that doesn’t adequately represent today’s mood and possibly under-polled people that are going to come out and vote Tuesday.
Obviously, we’ll all know soon, and I hope it will be other side eating crow, and not us!
Dave,
I wouldn’t worry about what IPSOS/Reuters, PPP(D), YouGov, Economist, or the rest say.
Why? Because they have been polling like it’s 2008.
I also disagree with those that think that even D+4 is reasonable at this point. I would have agreed it was two weeks ago, but we have better data now and a better idea of how the electorate is behaving with the early vote…and we have the PEW, Rasmussen, and Gallup data that shows a huge shift to the GOP in the electorate….and it’s been confirmed in the early vote.
*I* am probably being pessimistic with D+2.
That is why I think Romney wins. Has the polling shown Romney erosion this past week? Yes.
1. National polling during a hurricane is unreliable at best.
2. It is NORMAL for the challenger to lose a little soft support while the electorate “rethinks” the race the week before…and the RCP average-graph shows this sort of movement (note that Obama hasn’t gained much at all if you exclude the clearly erroneous/outlier National Journal Poll)
3. The polling has been baking in a strong Dem advantage that isn’t there, and we now have the data to know it isn’t there.
In short, it’s almost election day, and the usual suspects are doubling down. We need to get a grip. Either it’s 2008 again or it’s not. If it’s not, the DRI is going to be less than D+3 I assure you.
-Polaris
WashingtonTimes: Both Obama and Romney unfit for office
44 – Bush was in PA the evening before the election and beat Kerry. Did you miss that election?
Looks like there was indisputably a Sandy bump which may or may not be fading (hopefully it is) and there may now be some doubt if undecideds break towards the challenger at the end as in the past (perhaps people undecided at this late point simply don’t vote)
Our best case scenario is the polls are reflecting the reality of several days ago but not the reality of this last weekend where hopefully sentiment moves against this failed President
I’ve been reading the PEW/RAS/WAPO discussion.
PEW is a week old. It is the same poll as the one before it, which is the same poll as the one before it. The internal assumptions are different, that’s all. Still, the last poll had Romney leading among Indies 44-41.
RAS today finds the electorate to be 39D/37R/24I.
OK, fine let’s apply that to the WAPO tracking poll released today.
WAPO modeled the turnout today 33D/29R/34I/4NP
and found Obama leading 49-48. WAPO internals tell an entirely different story from the top-line numbers. They show Romney strength with the Governor winning the internals battle:
Romney—–7D/97R/48I
Obama——91D/3D/46I
I applied the RAS turnout projection of 39D/37/24I to the candidate preference by party affiliation found in the WAPO data today. Here is the real story of the race.
RAS turnout model applied to today’s WAPO internals (no rounding):
Romney——50.14
Obama——-47.64
I think that is a fair set of calculations. I utilized the RAS turnout assumption and applied the WAPO internals. If there is anything wrong with that, I will welcome the discussion. Otherwise, it is fair to conclude that Romney leads today 50.1 to 47.7.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/index.html
That crowd in PA is huge!
Polaris – you are all in brother. Hope you are right.
Emerica – please vote for Obama. Please get all your friends to vote for Obama. Please stick it to the GOP.
The national polls haven’t changed my view of things. If anything, they seem to be lining up with the state polls. This may be the instance where the state polls lead the national polls.
I’ve had the electoral college at 281-257 for Obama for more than two weeks. I’ve really not seen anything to change that. There’ve been days when NH looked promising, but not enough to move it to Romney. Same for IA.
Maybe there’s the late break Caddell seems to think there might be, but who knows. If there is, maybe WI coupled with NH sends Romney across the finish line first.
Polaris you tend to dismiss everything you don’t like as an outlier
Why isn’t a middle scenario plausible?
Maybe the electorate turns out to be D+4 because while people don’t like the job Obama has done they think things MAY be starting to get back on track and are so unsettled as it is they may not want to start over with someone new
Maybe Dems are not enthused but show up at the polls anyway, grimly doing their duty
Marv – talk about torturing numbers.
I saw the Dem’s doing this in 10 and 4. Just saying. I am on record predicting a Romney EV victory.
Hope the people in OH really know what they are talking about and that Axelrod is full of crap.
Turns out there was an October surprise in the form of a fat load, traitor. Where is this new clip where he endorses Romney again?
#66
You’re crazy.
I would never vote for Obama.
Yes, I can’t stand Romney, but I guarantee Obama will do a lot of things I don’t agree with.
I don’t want to support any of his agenda or bear in responsibility for that.
I’ve always been fond of “don’t blame me, I didn’t vote meme” that George Carllin started.
website to watch pa rally?
Those Illinois figures are Chicago only. Not good for O.
I have had my negative moments this week but remember that the national polls we are seeing now are measuring conduct mostly before the weekend. Josh Jordan aka numbersmuncher has made the point that in 2004 undecideds broke to Bush Monday through Friday before the election but thereafter broke to Kerry. Obama is having some voters come home now; but there is time for one more break. It is still close.
71.website to watch pa rally?
Comment by Tina — November 4, 2012 @ 6:06 pm
It’s on CSPAN.
George Carlin explains how voting works
Robbie I predicted 277 with OH going lost and being replaced with NH CO IA WI
NH seems a natural fit for Mitt economic conservatism, neighboring state, no large cities or minorities
CO looks like we’ve won already
IA is close we may win with turnout
WI the Walker recall turnout mechanism is in place
MFG – your scenario could be right. I remember how jazzed the Dems were in 04. Turned out the enthusiasm didn’t result in enough voters. Could that happen again? Yea, sure. I can’t know that for certain but the polls today suck and are not unreasonable (I don’t include PPP who are always full of chit).
The fat load traitor changed the course of this election. A 70/20 approval and why?
and you wonder why no one takes you seriously Robbie.
Our people on the ground in OH are saying the kind of things you say when you’re going to lose
“Its tight”
“We’re close”
“We’re right there”
etc
Well, in my prediction I have Romney winning OH, IA and CO. Losing NH, WI and PA all narrowly.
The gap between the two is a lot closer than 2004 that a weekend surge from Romney is doable as Sandy bounce fades. But we will never see it except in the trackers and Gallup and whatever orgs that polled over the weekend.
RickPerrysParakeet is getting boring.
#56, Scott, I am an Virginian resident. I talked to a reliable source on Friday, he feels Romney is good in VA. Not as confident about Allen’s chances. Hopefully, Romeny’s margin will pull Allen across the line.
Tina,
cspan link for rally posted on #58.
78.and you wonder why no one takes you seriously Robbie.
Comment by Michael D. — November 4, 2012 @ 6:09 pm
Explain, please.
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/massive-decrease-early-and-absentee-voting-chicago_660299.html
“MFG – your scenario could be right. I remember how jazzed the Dems were in 04. Turned out the enthusiasm didn’t result in enough voters.”
According to gallup, the Dems were enthused, but Republicans became equally enthused at the end… Rs won by turning out.
you have been consistantly anti-Romney and have been since day one. So you prediction is predictable.
MFG – if it weren’t for the bailout issue we would be up solidly in OH. Most don’t want to believe that but 1 in 8 jobs in OH are dependent on the auto parts industry. We are NOT even worried about OH if that wasn’t an issue. Romney would win be a fairly comfortable 5.
Since I am predicting Romney will prevail in OH by a slim margin, we are all in the boat together this time.
#71: http://www.c-span.org/Events/Mitt-Romney-Campaigns-in-Pennsylvania/10737435600-1/
I’m also in Virginia and it seems the same way — Romney is good but Allen is going to have to hope for a huge GOP turnout.
thanks
MFG – Barone seems convinced that OH is going to Romney by 5. I just wanted to mention it since, as far as I know, he has not snuck in any little face saving statements.
woa–looks like someone collapsed or something at the PA Rally. Tom Ridge just stopped talking.
Axelrod this morning as much as admitted the Romney numbers w/r/t to the early vote in Ohio were right.
That being so, then I KNOW Romney will win Ohio (because Obama doesn’t have the early vote lead he needs to take the state).
The EV data from Co, VA, and FLA all tell the same tale. If Romney is up in Florida by 5-6 (which seems to be the case), he’s up nationally, and the DRI is less than D+4.
It’s not so much all in (note I am not making specific predictions until tomorrow because I still don’t have a good feel for exactly how the undecideds will ultimately break), but I am very confident that Romney will win.
There comes a point where you have to trust your model and your instincts or not. I am choosing to trust what the EV data is telling me, and that means Romney wins.
-Polaris
Ron Paul write-in vote alive and well
So much for Gary Johnson
Robbie-Here is where I disagree with you to an extent. The polls coming out today are reflecting the sentiment of the country in the middle to end of last week. This is right in the middle of Sandy. Rove, Caddel, and Barone acknowledge the bump, but see that bump dissipating this weekend. If there was truly an Obama surge the usual Republican suspects would be leaking to Politico already and Krystal, Geirge Will, Alex S. and a host of others would already be cranking out articles warning of the impending doom. Just my opinion anyway.
Mr. Vito, A small quibble: While Dems were juiced in 04, I think Republicans were pretty fired up for most of 2004 as well given the hyper-partisan nature of that election year.
88.you have been consistantly anti-Romney and have been since day one. So you prediction is predictable.
Comment by Michael D. — November 4, 2012 @ 6:12 pm
Yep, I was anti Romney in the primary and I was unhappy with the way he ran his campaign. But since the first debate, he’s done everything about as well as one could hope.
My prediction is based on the polls and my head. I’m not going to waste time fooling myself only to be disappointed when it doesn’t happen. I hope I’m wrong and OH comes through for Romney.
I think we will lose OH and need an alternate route
This explains Mitt broadening out to MN DV MI
NOT desperation in my opinion but they probably think they only have a 40% or so shot at OH and I think the attempt to steal DV has been masterfully done
#87 Agreed. In almost any other year the Dems would have won in 2004 because there WERE Jazzed and did turnout in big numbers. The GOP was simply more jazzed and turned out even more in 2004.
-Polaris
“Mr. Vito, A small quibble: While Dems were juiced in 04, I think Republicans were pretty fired up for most of 2004 as well given the hyper-partisan nature of that election year.”
Not according to gallup…. Rs caught up later.
95 – well, Axelrod didn’t admit anything and it seemed like his time was ending as Wallace put up that data. Anyway, I am not certain that anyone has a true handle on the early vote in OH to be honest. Early voting should be banned. We went the first 220 years of this country with voting on the first Tuesday in November and there was absolutely no reason to tinker with it. I know – that horse is out of stable.
RB
I had the race at 281-257 even when the national polls were solid for Romney. That they’ve flipped a bit hasn’t changed my view to the negative. I just haven’t seen the movement to the plus side in those last few states. I hope election day proves me wrong.
What I find most fascinating is the handwringing over polls which still show Obama at 46 to 48, which is the dead zone for an incumbent. Meanwhile, we have hard data that suggests that his total winning margins from 08 in Fl and OH are totally gone now that early voting is finished. I like Romney’s chances, and it won’t even be that close.
97- With the election Tuesday, I don’t know how many polls will be released reflecting Sat Sun and Mon. I do think at this point the polls have lost thier ability to shape the narrative.
#91, i can’t imagine having Kaine as my senator for 6 years….
How many really close elections have there been on the record in recent years?
1960
1968
1976
1980 (turned into a blowout the last week or two)
2000
2004 (though Bush led consistently)
2012
MFG – let me just say for all of our sakes I hope you are wrong about OH because I just have a very hard time believing that PA will come through in the end. For that to happen, here is a scenario that must occur:
Obama’s margin of victory in Philly has to be less than 390 or 400K at most. Assume Romney gets a 2% bump in Philly county The rest of the counties must have an increased R win % by 7% with Montco and Delco at 5%. Plus, we need increased turnout in deep red counties by 5% but maybe even more. That is problematic because they already turnout at a high percentage.
If all those things happen, then Romney wins by something like 0.25%.
Ohio is a republican swing state. Our governor, all statewide office holders, the state House and Senate are all Republican. The Ohio Supreme Court is all Republican. The only statewide democrat is Brown, who won in a year that democrats swept all major offices except one. This was an election similar to the 08 presidential in that the State had just finished 8 years of a very unpopular Governor in Taft. (I liked Bush BTW). Four years later R’s swept every statewide office including Portman. They all won comfortably with the exception of Kasich, who won a close election.The D’s effectively tied him to corporate greed with Lehman Brothers and I think Romney has suffered similarly with Bain. The union spent heavily to defeat Kasich and failed. He won on the economy. This year the Evangelical and Catholic vote will have a huge impact and I believe will propel Romney to victory in Ohio…..FWIW.
I also remember the Ds saying Bush campaiging in Tenn late in 2000 was a desperate ploy too.
104-I get what you are saying there. I do see two shots to get it. Take OH or take WI+anything. I get this weird feeling that we may be staying up looking at what is left in Madison and Waukeesha counties. The GOTV is top rate in WI and better than the Democrats. They may really regret insisting on all those recall elections.
Tonight is the toughest night – I sense some concern, worry and perhaps dispair. Tomorrow night is like Christmas Eve – all excitement. But tonight all the worries creep in about have we done enough, is there something left undone. Work hard the next 48 hours to bring it home, but tonight a little adage might help:
Fear knocked at the door, faith answered, no one was there.
#109, I don’t see R winning PA.
#103 MD
I so agree with you about early voting. Voting is not about taking your time and picking the most convenient moment to cast that vote. It’s about desire, knowledge of the issues and committment to voting in a way that is best for the country. That can be done in one day or by absentee ballot.
112- Meant to say Dane Count, but you get the idea.
Fear knocked at the door, faith answered, no one was there.
Nice words for the moment.
Polaris,
Go back up and check #63. Thanks.
Polaris, I just watched the Axelrod interview with Chris Wallace. I m not quite sure if this is taped from earlier or what. My opinion is that he’s a big BS er…. I think it gonna come down to turn out. He admits that this is not 2008. Polls are done…now it’s time to vote
On Ohio, I say Romney wins by 5. Watch for the tea party, they have been silent since 2010.
So basically the polls say if turnout is closer to 2008, we probably lose, if it’s closer to 2004, we probably win.
I disagree about Axelrod, MD. Yes he didn’t explicitly SAY that the Romney numbers in Ohio were right, but he didn’t have to either. Normal Axelrod would be to strongly push his own counternarrative especially if he thought that the numbers were wrong.
Saying “well see who’s bluffing” is as good an admission of weakness as we’ll ever see from him.
-Polaris
We can lose OH and win, MD
If we get CO NH IA WI we get to 277
A very uncomfortable route to be sure, but a route nevertheless
Also in the above scenario we don’t need NH
However either WI or OH MUST be won in any reasonable scenario to get to 270
I forgot about Oklahoma…
They refused to do a roll call of the vote when voice vote was close at best then just rolled the walls shut on our guys so our guys continued in the parking lot but then just made up the results.
And Arizona.
Last cycle it was mostly Nevada GOP who was corrupt, but this time it’s more systemic.
the venue at Shady Brook Farm is so packed..that they are turning away thousands…including my family! Don’t know how many thousands are there, but they are TURNING away people. Yes PA is in play!!!
#69 MD,
RAS says that the turnout model is 39/37/24.
That model can be fairly applied to the candidate prefernce by party found in any national poll. All I did was apply that model to the WAPO internals for today. I don’t see why that is torturing the numbers. They picked their turnout model and I picked the RAS turnout model.
Watching a live stream of the Pennsylvania Romney Rally…HUGE CROWDS…This isn’t the campaign of someone who is thinking he may loose…RR must have #’s showing a REAL possibility of a RR upset in Penn. Let’s hope!
Larry Schweikart ?@LSchweikart
Looks like a 50 day will roll off Ras tomorrow for Zero and Romney will see 50 again. Still with D+4.
Collapse
Reply
Retweet
Favorite
Schweikart just tweete: Looks like a 50 day will roll off Ras tomorrow for zero and Romney will see 50 again. Still with D + 4.
Yougov internals:
Mitt only wins white vote: 54-40, loses women:, 42-53, loses his party equally to barack 91-6.
He does lead with independents 50-40.
Seems like another D biased poll but they don’t give internals. Too tired to figure out how +D they decided to poll.
In Reuters-Ipsos, Mitt holds to R’s only as well as Obama holds Dems and Obama-Biden leads with Indies 59-25 (only give data for RV while giving topline with LV … gee thanks).
38D-29R poll (+9D)
38% have early voted with 47% of Dems saying they early voted and 36% of Republicans saying they early voted.
************************************
Looks like oversampling again. Yougov numbers have really shoddy internals. No way Mitt loses women by double digits. Reuters is showing +9 D for Ohio with 38% of voters being democrat and almost half of them having already early voted. Oooookkkkk …
TLDR, adjusting for bias, it’s a tied race and will be all about turnout.
Bunu, Romney ended up with 5x Paul’s vote. Case closed.
Did Bush win indies in 2000?
Otherwise we’re looking at a GOP nominee winning Indies for the first time since 1988.
Is RAS says +2D I am with him. I thinking, on my guess, thats its even to +2D. I moved a bit this afternoon but can live with +2D.
I am staying with my “big three”. Party ID, party loyalty votes and indie votes. That’s my story and I am sticking to it.
Huge lively Romney crowds with a candidate on fire. Mitt has a happy positive message while Obama seems drab and is thinking “revenge is the best we can do?” Enemies list is next? Obama is the “one”?
I remain hopeful. I like Barone’s numbers right now.
Unbelievable crowd at that PA rally. Similar crowd in Ohio Friday night, my wife was there. I don’t buy that these crowds don’t mean something. Never seen anything like this.
If this was a weekday Ras and Rove would be on O’Rielly answering the questions we are asking about the Sandy bounce, and is it fading?
The thing I bought in the PEW poll was +2D edge in early voting. That would be nearly 20% different from 2008 where Obama stormed to an EV landslide.
#131 Yes, 2000 was one of the few times when the winner of the Indie vote (Bush) not not win the PV. Interestingly 2004 was another.
-Polaris
Toledo Steve
Convince me Mitt will win OH
I’m being serious
Give me your case
Does FoxNews regular programming canned programming tonight?
The PA Gov seems like a regular guy — a guy you’d want to have a beer with.
Polaris is right about the early vote numbers in Ohio. The early vote difference from 08 is enough to erase Zero’s margin by itself. All the enthusiasm is on R’s side. Romney will take Ohio.
PPP next poll out will be from OHIO.
I’m sure this won’t be good.
Random Sample of Romney Supporter Interviews Plays Like a bad night on the Sean Hannity television show
#141, i predict + 4 for O….
139- Tom Corbett is good people- have met him a few times. Very down to earth, kind of the type of guy you expect to end up Governor out of central casting- likes people.
#137. Mitt will take Ohio ….from an Ohioians…
Given the huge disparities between polls, I think we should judge from an exemplar in polling: Mason Dixon. I think the reason mason dixon is so good is because they make sure to get good sample sizes from different geographical regions. Barone always mentions how geographically isolated social conservatives and small-town voters helped bush immensely in 2004 and were underpolled.
I believe Mason Dixon makes sure regional samples are significant and extrapolates to get the topline. Lazy pollsters don’t do as good a job and we get these polls oversampling big cities.
Does WI still have that nonsensical same day registration? That it was cost Bush the state in 2004
Can we win OH and CO and win the electoral college while losing the popular vote?
Huge crowds in Ohio on Friday, Pennsylvania today, probably more of the same tomorrow…Polls don’t mean as much anymore with early voting and skewed partisan pollsters…Look at what is happening and what we hear real people saying…I think many may even say they are undecided or even may vote for O but when they get into the voting booth – the absolutely horrible economy, Barack’s stupid comments (revenge), his body language and attitude at the debates, Biden’s bizzare behavior will all come flooding into the voters mind and the Romney/Ryan ticket will be selected. THE MSM and liberals just don’t want you to think that the first AA president wont get re-elected…It’s about the economy stupid…just watch.
Actually dave I think Fox is having an election special tonight, not sure what time though.
If the tweet above in 128 is true and Ras is using D + 4, somebody tell me why? Everything I’m reading here tonight tells me Ras thinks it’s D + 2. This is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy with these pollsters. Believe in your freaking numbers or don’t post them.
Remember these polls for reference in 2016 when Romney is seeking second term.
This is all about voter suppression….get out and vote.
Dio
I have been polled twice in the past by Mason-Dixon
I was impressed with their professionalism
This doesn’t look good for kick returner Chris Rainey for Pitt. Got hit, started walking off the field then couldn’t make it and collapsed.
Toledo Steve,
Can you give me your thoughts on Ohio in post #110?
137#. Different landscape in Ohio since 2008. We voted against obamacare 2:1.. Obama wants revenge ,,,we will give him our revenge… Enthusiasm wins every time who has it…mitt/ryan
Cuyahoga county:
2,200 people voted there today
Sunday before the election in 2008 that number was 3,700.
Oh, and there’s 30,000 people out for Mitt in Pennsylvania in sub-zero temperatures (celsius, I still don’t know why you lot insist on using Fahrenheit – this is the one thing Europeans got right)
Why would anyone pay attention to a ppp poll!
These poor people at the Romney rally in Pennsylvania have been waiting and waiting. The Romney bus is an hour late. Getting kind of cold. Huge crowd!
“Anyway, I am not certain that anyone has a true handle on the early vote in OH to be honest.”
Nobody knows what the early vote in Ohio means in terms of party ID.
Here’s an example of the actual data from Summit County, home of Akron, as of Nov 3 (there are still 2 days of EV left):
Total early ballot requested (mail and OTC): 88,881 (13429 R, 21756 D, 53651 Non-Affiliated, Others 45)
Total returned: 60,587
Total votes cast is 28% of 2008 total votes, overall early in 2008 was 31%.
So who has the advantage? Just based on party ID of the returned votes, D’s have a 3:2 advantage, about 20 points. (And the “Souls to the Polls” numbers are not included in this. Obama won this county by 17 points in 2008.)
And what about the 53,651 non-affiliated votes returned? As you can see, these make up the bulk of the voters.
On the upside, if all goes to hell, we still have the House.
Because God knows, what people want to see as the leader of your remaning opposition is a member of Congress.
Yes, MFG
That can happen. I agree with you about the WI thing but I just don’t know about that route. Possible but like keeping a single ace and drawing 2 more. Sure, it happens (more than an inside straight) but the odds are against it. The WI recall was at the exact right moment for the GOp. Any win there will be extremely narrow. The GOP needs to be on alert for the buses from Chicago.
Scooter-I have stopped caring about the PPP polls. Unlike two months ago, they cannot drive the narrative. Way too many polls coming out tomorrow for them to even get a whiff of attention.
Parakeet- To win OH Zero has to pile up big margins in northern Ohio and part of Columbus. I see no evidence that he’s doing it. There is just no visible enthusiasm for O in northern Ohio, and this is a very depressed area of the state. The early vote numbers bear this out. To win the state, O needs to carry Toledo and Cleveland by mid teens, to counter the big margins Romney will rack up in the rest of the state. I think he ends up carrying Toledo/Cleveland by high single digits. That won’t do it, not nearly.
Romney will win by a margin similar to Bush’s in 04.
08 was a perfect year for Dems in Ohio, and they were still riding a wave of state Republican scandal, but O still got only 51.5. O will lose about three points from that total.
Ohio is a Republican state. It will vote R.
#63
Let’s continue the discussion.
Let’s assume the following:
D+4 = 41/37/22
D+3 = 40/37/23
D+2 = 39/37/24
D+1 = 38/37/25
R+0 = 37/37/26
R+1 = 36/37/27
R+2 = 35/37/28
R+3 = 34/37/29
Using the WAPO internals without any deviation, we get the following:
Romney/Obama
D+4 = 49.32%/48.54%
D+3 = 49.73%/48.09%
D+2 = 50.14%/47.64%
D+1 = 50.47%/47.17%
R+0 = 50.88%/46.72%
R+1 = 51.29%/46.27%
R+2 = 51.70%/45.82%
R+3 = 52.11%/45.37%
Changing the internals so that Romney is the worst possible … moving 7% to 6.5% etc …
Changing the internals so that Obama is the best possible … moving 7% to 7.49% …
These changes affect the totals above in a very nice manner.
All Romney percents decrease by exactly 0.50% and Obama percents increase by exactly 0.49%
This produces Romney wins in every case except D+4 where it is 48.82%/49.03%
So the WAPO poll and its’ internals actually produce Romney wins in all cases.
Frank
Some twitter -cnn dufus- was trying to say that cuyuga saw an increase.
Markoh, yes Ohio sweepedeverything in 2010 . What made that happen? Angry voters who had enough of govt stepping on them.. The tea party arose and took over 2010. Yes, the Catholics, evangelicals will vote this election.
Dems fear they move lose seats in house:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83298.html
If Obama wins and we still have the House…NO DEAL!!
Should be may sorry
“2,200 people voted there today”
Wow… are you sure?… they needed almost 15000 today and tomorrow to equal early in-house voting from 2008.
My observations today:
1) Barone, Rove, Morris (who cares?) and Ed Rollins all reaffirmed their predictions of a Romney win. Add in George Will today and John McLaughlin over the weekend and I think there continues to be a reason to be optimistic and confident;
2) Obama did get a Sandy bump. It is coming out in the current polls but years from now, people will say that Sandy did not help Obama but rather only confused the polling data collected the last week before the election;
3) Romney is closing the gap in the states that Obama didnt anticipate losing and therefore didnt spend his money tearing down Romney in MN, MI and PA…..all of his GOTV efforts now will not turn those states around in the last week..rather it is a question as to whether or not Romney’s momentum is strong enough to overcome the leaning Dem electorate in those states;
4) The enthusiasm and energy are on OUR side. Dont lose site of that. It is real and it is powerful and can only marginally be measured in any polling metric.
5) The EV totals are real indicators of the direction of the race…make these more important than any other analyst’s opinions at this late date;
6) we have the prayers warriors, they have the dancers…id rather have the prayer warriors, TBH;
7) It is ALWAYS this confused and choatic at this point in an election….last time that I can remember it wanst was 1988.
Anyway, take a sleeping pill and try not to worry tonight….tomorrow is another day. Pat Caddell stated that he has seen a real shift to Romney over the last 24 hours…..see what tomorrow brings!
Thanks Toledo Steve
John in Ireland,
Any update on your thoughts from a few days ago. What are you thinking for Tuesday?
Philly folks-did you guys see anything like this in 2004 or 2008.
160
Except that Obama uses EO’s the way most people eat potato chips. One after the other. A dictatorship by fiat.
i think i am going with a base of romney 275 and obama 263
basically giving romney FL, VA, NC, CO, and OH
however, i think romney has a shot at WI, IA and NH and outside shots at PA, and MI
robertcostaNRO Having Rendell in an MSNBC chair and not running the PA Dem machine makes PA a different race. It’s like Jeter retiring from the Yanks
Frank you completely amaze me.
Watching Romney rally in Bucks County.. at least 25-30K in attendance…. definitely a winning vibe!
The Jets are losing to the Bye.
Romney just gave a big thanks to Christie for all of his hard work in NJ
Frank, I wish you would have been around about 25 years ago to help me in my Calculus class.
74. No, the enthusiasm at this rally and beyond anything I have ever seen. More than bush 2004.
A new report by a liberal-leaning think tank recommends a dramatic overhaul of military pay, retirement and health care benefits as part of a $1 trillion cut in defense spending over 10 years.
The Center for American Progress calls for capping pay raises, eliminating military health benefits for many retirees who are covered by an employer-provided plan, and reducing the value of military retired pay as well as making retirees wait until age 60 to start receiving it.
Ohio is very difficult because there is no party registration. I think primary-voting is a prety bad indicator. Noone actually knows party registration.
Scouring over these Ohio polls, they are heavily skewed by all the dems that have said they have voted early. We all know that the hardcore dem votes early and EV turnout starst out strong as they are located near early voting centers as urban residents.
It’s hard to believe given the early voting numbers that 40% of dems have already voted.
Where is OHIO JOE. Didn’t he have access to internals?
“Except that Obama uses EO’s the way most people eat potato chips. One after the other. A dictatorship by fiat.”
The former is a dic-tater-chip by fat.
Cuyahoga County has returned 196,844 ballots, as of Nov 3, according to GMU.
That equates to 35.9% of the 2008 total. In 2008, 39.5% was EV.
Another 2 days will easily surpass the 39.5% number. As of Nov 1, this percent stood at 29%, so added 6.9% in 2 days.
185 – absolute votes in Obama counties are down 150K+. Absolute votes in McCaib counties are up. Do we know who these people voted for? No, but the data is rather striking.
That Politico article about Dems losing seats in the House is Exhibit A that Libtards have absolutely beaten us in the Eeyore game. Politico has already interviewed DOZENS of Democrat operatives with knives out.
Re: ohio To add onto what Toledo Steve said zero is down in summit, Cuyahoga , Franklin, etc. the numbers aren’t there…
Jack, you are full of crap….
Add
Your team looks awesome
If they get the 1 seed who knows?
Did Rollins sound pretty optimisic? The other day I heard him and he sounded very cautious.
174 – in 2004, Bush had a large rally at the same spot the night before the election. Estimates were at 15K. In 08, no.
They are chanting SEND HIM HOME. LOL
Romney goes out of his way to praise Christie. Where is the reciprocal?
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/11/04/romney-rally-in-bucks-county-pennsylvania/
30,000-35,000
If Obama wins OH, then Renacci, Johnson, Gibbs all lose. OH-14 and Latta are tossups. I don’t see any pundits claiming Dem pickups in OH this year.
30k = 10k (per media)
Obama rally 10k -50k per msm.
Romney is a class act. I will remain a fan of his win or lose. The man has really showed me something. I am not quite in Corey land with Romney but I moved off of being just lukewarm.
In today’s game, the Redskins lost 21-13 against the Carolina Panthers. If the Redskins Rule holds true, Mitt Romney will win the election on Tuesday. This year also marks the seventh time Election Day has fallen on Nov. 6, for which the GOP record is an undefeated 6 and 0.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/the-redskins-rule-favors-romney-148367.html
#173
I am nervous. I am always nervous this close to an election though, so let’s set that to one side.
I think to the summer, and the fact that millions queued to buy chicken. Those people are voting.
I look at gallup and Ras’s party ID figures.
I look at the turnout projected by the polls.
The polls are basically saying “who do you believe, me or your lying eyes?”
Consider this:
If I told you in January 2012 that on the Sunday before the election, Obama would be spending millions to defend Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and that Romney would have a crowd of 30,000 in the Philly burbs, while Obama was getting 4,000 to show up in Cleveland, and that his early vote operation was getting fewer dems to the polls than 2008…. but I didn’t tell you what the polls said – who would you say was winning?
I bet every person on this thread would say Romney was headed to a comfy 4-6 point win and 300+ EVs.
That’s what the campaign looks and feels like, but it’s not what the polls say.
So, either this is a historic reverse of the laws of politics, or the polls are off.
The laws of politics have very rarely failed. The polls have often failed. There are good reasons why they are failing this time.
So what do I think? I think Romney, 51-48, and anywhere from 275-315 EVs.
Rollins is about as reliable as Dick Morris. Both charlatans.
Haven’t seen this posted, but CNN has it 50-47 Obama. Not really a surprise considering their other polls.
Wow steelers went for a fake FG on the 3 yard line and got stopped. Dumb play call. Better off going for it with the offense.
Romney calls his campaign a “movement.”
John in Ireland,
Great analysis! Thanks!
Les Miles disease
“In today’s game, the Redskins lost 21-13 against the Carolina Panthers. If the Redskins Rule holds true, Mitt Romney will win the election on Tuesday.”
Why?
Redskins lost to Green Bay 28-14 on Oct 31, 2004. Bush still won, IIRC.
202 – I just don’t like having to rely on a Harry Reid 2010 failure of the polls for victory.
206 – Ron Paul is a movement. A bowel movement
If the GOP actually gains house seats, it’s because the DRI has equalled or improved form 2010. Usually after a wave year like 2010, you get a handful of vulnerable freshmen in seats they can’t win with more normal demogrpahics.
This was why Pelosi thought she could take back the house early this cycle: She was assuming 2008 was the new normal and judgeing house races accordingly.
Basically if the GOP doesn’t lose (or even gains) reps, then Romney will definately win.
-Polaris
#204 CNN is just reporting results of the earlier Pew poll.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/national-poll-obama-50-romney-47/
Mitt adding some new items about what he will do day one.
“If Obama wins OH, then Renacci, Johnson, Gibbs all lose.”
Not necessarily.
I can’t say anything about Johnson and Gibbs, but I do expect Renacci to lose.
No surprise on CNN, they have been very left leaning in thier polling throughout the cycle. I expect the CBS to she the same.
209 – the rule is the winner of the previous electoral vote. Dems won the electoral vote in 2000. So when the Redskins lost in 2004, bush won the electoral vote.
Frank and his numbers are awesome.
He and Polaris make it easier to get a grip on the real state of the election.
Polaris is getting more flack and doubts because of what happened in 08.
My much anticipated prediction is….RR-52/O-47.5.
Our long national nightmare is about to be over.
215 – of course you do. You’re a dumb ass liberal hack.
216- that’s them reporting the Pew Poll.
213.#204 CNN is just reporting results of the earlier Pew poll.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/national-poll-obama-50-romney-47/
Comment by Mark1971 — November 4, 2012 @ 7:05 pm
Ok, thanks. It was retweeted in my timeline as a CNN poll.
211. Ron Paul : the choice of stoners, dead-Enders, tax cheats, dead beat dads and husbands, and anti-Constitution apocalypse types.
The real cross-section of America! (sarcasm- obviously)
Robbie you seeing a new poll or PEW poll
Seattle wins 20-10. Game was well in hand actually for the last 4 mins….Seattle literally ran the ball and the clock down the Viking’s throat to win it during the last 5 mins of the game.
-Polaris
#224 Correction: Final score: Seattle 30-Vikings 20.
Rothenberg recently moved Renacci from tossup to tilt Republican. Renacci will win.
Mfg, bears play tex and niner next 2 weeks. If they win one I’m a believer. Not there yet although they currently lead the niffle in scoring margin. Marshall is even better than I hoped for. Hope he doesn’t melt down off the field. He’s a ticking time bomb.
Peterson for the Vikes had a monster game. He was the only reason the game was as close as it was.
-Polaris
21 newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 are endorsing Romney in 2012.
Wake up people, this is a Romney Tsunami getting bigger by the day!
199 10k to 50k? Quite a range! Meaningless measurement.
I still will not be surprise if CNN and CBS show a 2-3 point Obama lead.
#184…..anyone, and i mean ANYONE, that proposes cuts to any military benefits should be shot. Then hung.
Then shot again.
CNN will release 8 PM ET per WOlf Blitzer.
Mitt knows he’s cornered. It’s too little too late.
That is why he’s in Pennsylvania now. He’s starting to flail around trying for hail marry passes.
#231 Neither would I especially if they double down on a 2008 type model.
-Polaris
I think the Giants are trying to let Pittsburgh take the lead, so that Eli has them right where he wants them.
Mitt called the campaign a movement just now.
Anyone feeling depressed should be watching Romney right now. He is not acting like someone who is losing.
Bio, re read my 199- it was a joke on how the un msm reports the #s.
I don’t give a crap what PEW says. There is no way Obama is leading by 3.
Neil King?@NKingofDC
How close is this election? Of the 1475 likely voters we polled, Obama led by seven voters. When rounded to even numbers, he leads 48-47.
Mfg, I thinh tex is a better team than bear period. I think bear is better than sf on a neutral field but game is in sf.
244
What a ridiculous irrelevant person you are.
If we win, it’s because of the pollsters being in the tank for Obama and a failure to properly screen early voters.
If we lose, it’s because yes, Republicans were jazzed, but there just aren’t enough of us anymore and in that case, we don’t have a country anymore.
If Texas secedes, count me in!
It’ll be CNN’s final poll. Last poll take pre-debate was 50-47 Obama. Romney has never lead in this poll, and several had eye-popping Obama leads.
So beware. Probably O+4.
Tina, I suspected that, Thanks for clarifying.
Jack, you know nothing about the politics in Ohio, Jim Renacci will win ….very well respected throu out the whole state. He use to be in the nursing home industry. A lot of people know him…Betty Sutton goes down
Story in Weekly Standard about Dem early voter turnout way down in ….. Chicago?
241, ridiculous. You know at that point they should just call it a tie. It’s making RCP go effin’ crazy.
Who cares about CNN or any other polls. Ignore all of them. Romney will win a close election.
But that’s what happened yesterday to Barack Obama in Virginia. Famous liar, womanizer, and accused rapist Bill Clinton kept the audience in their seats, but as Obama was speaking, many people had had enough; they got up and left so they could beat the parking lot traffic.
As Charlie Spiering of the Washington Examiner tweeted:
Wow. Steady stream of cold people trotting towards the exit in the middle of Obama’s speech.
And even Obama’s hot air wasn’t enough to hold them.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com …
I just listened to Sabato preaching “zero’s victory now certain” on CBS national radio news.
I’m not trying to insult you Add really I’m not but I genuinely have never thought highly of Cutler as a quarterback
Your team does though have a remarkable ability to pull games out and win in the clutch
And of course I’ve been a fan of Forte ever since his Tulane days as he ran for 200 yards every week against Conference USA opponents and I always wondered, “Can this guy play in the big leagues?”
We all could read between the lines of Polaris’ analysis in 2008. I never had McCain at more than 30% after the financial crisis.
And Polaris’ post-election analysis was still right. Republicans stayed home. Many MSM media outlets were surprised at how turnout was down in a lot of states and attributed it to Republicans staying home.
Still, the election will be tighter than we all would’ve liked it to be thanks to Sandy. The GOP will definitely turn out and the Dems will lose a few points. That’s about 5-6 point shift. Obama can still win … barely. Let’s hope Mitt’s surprise attack works.
I think Iowa + Wisconsin or New Hampshire + Wisconsin is a legitimate backup plan. I think that’s the real Romney strategy. PA is just a smart move to make if you have plenty of money to spend which Mitt does.
#214, Did he give any reasons? Sandy effect?
Who is Neil king?
Guys, we saw this movie in 2008.
“The polls are wrong! The polls are wrong!”
I bought it.
Now, I believe Christie may have flipped things to the One.
If he did, well, we “deadenders” did warn you about him.
He MUST lose re election next year.
I know Jim Renacci personally. I travel with him back from DC every Friday. As well as most other northern Ohio GOP congressmen. We talk every week.
csant, go talk with somebody who cares what you think.
Romney is in front of 30,000 in freaking PA. Ryan has 6,000 in MN, DEMS have under-performed in virtually ALL states…. and some poll tells me Romney is down 50-47. I call BS
CNN will show show their lord and master up by 5.
256.Who is Neil king?
Comment by Tina — November 4, 2012 @ 7:15 pm
Wall Street Journal writer.
257. Sorry pal. To compare this with 2008 is absurd on so any levels.
257
Not to worry. Mitt will win this. Close but win.
If Rotti believes that Mitt will lose, I am very comforted. There hasn’t been a damn thing he’s ever been right about. The Sharon Angle wing of the party can suck it.
Jack, you don’t know Jim Renacci…BS. By the way, what city are you from?
lol
261- Basically stating that today’s WSJ poll is a tied – had O 48-47, if he in fact leads by 7 of 1450 people, that’s less than half a point.
@259
Agree, Romney signs are up where I am at, but I think unfortunately Obama will win Minnesota all thanks to the Liberal Bastions of St. Paul and Minneapolis. I think Duluth is covered, but the GOP and Romney I don’t think have enough votes to get past both St. Paul and Minneapolis.
Thanks, Robbie, saw that S. Trende asked him about what poll.
Sorry, but I trust Barone over Sabato any day.
It is push polling to get Obama to 50. There is no way in hell you can put the election-day electorate at anymore than +4 dem. All polls that have Obama at 50 are around +9. Ridiculous.
I know Obama.
258 – jack, $16 trillion in debt. Adding another trillion every year. Obama has no plan to deal with it. Do you think this is infinitely sustainable or do you just want this country to go bankrupt?
“Jack, you don’t know Jim Renacci…BS. By the way, what city are you from?
Comment by Csant — November 4, 2012 @ 7:19 pm
Didn’t I tell you the other day?
Stow
Dio,
Please, go phuk yourself. You are far and away the most emotionally disturbed person on this board, and that includes BunuMerica.
…And, take that from the catagory of takes one to know one.
(I’m ALWAYS pessimistic right before the election. Been here since 04. Y’all know this)
#257 Not true, but I think you (and the Obama supporters) are in denial. We are not saying *all* the polls are wrong, and you’ll find genuine discussion about the internals and most of us agree that there has been at least a little erosion towards Obama this last week (we disagree amongst ourselves as to how much).
However, in this case we have solid empirical data that we are relying on. We aren’t the lone wolves this time out saying “all the polls are wrong”. We have data we can point to and patterns we can compare that show that SOME of the polls are wrong….and those polls are the ones that are modeling like it’s 2008.
-Polaris
PPP OHIO
Obama 52
Romney 47
Mfg, the bear has been crushing teams. D might be enough but oline is so putrid I just can’t commit yet. That was my concern in july and it hasn’t changed.
Its a religion with them EML
There is no rational thought behind it no matter how many Californias they create
Sabato is a hack. Always says the Dems have the advantage.
“244 What a ridiculous irrelevant person you are.” –bio mom
Next post… 244 by RottiLargo.
bio mom, you should at least let Jul get his post out before calling him ridiculous.
Kim Strassel, a writer for WSJ, a Republican bought into the “R’s are vulnerable in the House” thing many months back and wrote an article stating that 55 seats were in play. I wrote her a very long email and I detailed, CD by CD how that wasn’t possible. I asked her to provide me with the details on how she came up with that number since her article was sketchy.
I never heard back. I did tell her that worse case was a loss for R’s between 12 and 18 and that would only happen if every single thing possible went wrong for R candidates and right for D candidates at the same time.
Most journalists who write on politics don’t know chit. It is really sad. There are some that do but they are hard to find and some who are competent eventually give in to their biases. We are going to find out very soon if someone like Barone is going to fall into that.
Sabato is a liberal. He can’t help himself.
No way Zimmerman comes close to Latta.
Again, any insult you have for me is comforting. You have no idea.
“Betty Sutton goes down…”
I won’t be able to sleep tonight now… thanks.
252. Really? He usually covers his ….more than that.
#280, Sabato caused a lot of damage to Allen in 2006.
Everybody, even Obama’s advisors saying Ohio is razor thin but PPP has him up 5?
They are gonna be embarrased on election day.
#277 Do you have the internals or a link to that poll? I am almost sure what they are likely to be, but I’d like to see it for myself anyways.
Looks like PPP(D) is doubling down on “Party like it’s 2008″
-Polaris
Damn giants lose
“258 – jack, $16 trillion in debt. Adding another trillion every year. Obama has no plan to deal with it. Do you think this is infinitely sustainable or do you just want this country to go bankrupt?
Comment by EML — November 4, 2012 @ 7:21 pm”
What I want and what will happen on Nov 6 are two different things. Obama has no plans for anything, never has had, yet he won handily in 2008 and will win squeakily in 2012.
As to the country’s bankruptcy, it already is.
#277, what was PPP predicting just before WI’s recall vote?
Sabato 2004:
“As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never–at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party’s get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the Democrats’ GOTV efforts. But if the Democrats are even half-right about the potential of their GOTV in producing additional new voters, then Kerry will win, perhaps more comfortably than anyone now suspects.”
Eerie isn’ it.
PPP saying nothing has changed from 08…lol.
293 – 50-47 but he said 50-49 Barrett if its a 2008 turnout.
PPP has Brown up 54-44
Sabato is a prostitute always has been a prostitute
PPP internals aren’t out yet
Meant 234. Referring to Bunu.
This is PPP’s poll for score, although its paid for by a Dem organization. He usually tries to get it right. 5 point lead is tough to swallow at this point.
All PPP says is zero up 66-39 with early voters.
Sorry, 60-39
Stow…so where do you stand…I live in hudson
Put the giants in the nfc north, or any nfc east team for that matter and they are a 3rd or 4th place team.
Hilarious quote from hack Sabato! Don’t know why Fox has him on as an expert.
PPP is trying to sell that there has been great movement toward Romney in non swing states, but movement toward Obama in swing states. A Rising tide lifts ALL boats.
#302/303: I bet PPP has oversampled the early vote by at least a factor of two as well.
-Polaris
Wasted energy talking about a ppp poll.
286# mr Vito …you have seen Betty sutton..
The good news is that PPP has been off by 2 to 4 this cycle. Not just the WI recall either.
So, OH is up for grabs. I do agree with MFG when you start to hear certain phrases (It’s tight, almost there – wait I just had a flash back to when I was 16 in Lisa May’s loft – OK end that thought but you know what I meant) are cause for certain. Barone gives me a lot of hope and the people here from OH, minus Jack, do as well.
60-39 doesn’t remotely square with the early voting indicators we’ve seen.
At this point, you have to believe one of two things:
1) PPP is right and Obama wins
2) PPP doesn’t want to be in business any more and will fold after 2012 due to their far off polls.
1 seems more likely
Correction : haven’t seen Betty sutton…she NO Kate upton
“Stow…so where do you stand…I live in hudson”
wow.
Practically neighbors.
What do you mean, “where do you stand?” Do you mean, prediction for Nov 6?
Mitt or the empty chair?
I think some one should tweet 294 to Sabato
I told you people that nobody fired up the Chicago machine and that Obama wouldn’t carry IL by double digits.
I don’t take the PPP(D) topline any more seriously than any of the rest of you, but Jensen’s internals can actually be useful. That’s why I asked.
-Polaris
When you know what the poll is going to show based on what org is doing the polling, it is not worth examining.
That’s why gallup and rasmussen are the only polls I follow.
Jack is a far left moonbat
Empty chair.
jack
Please explain how your False Messiah can be down substantially in the 2012 early voting compared with 2008 in the three(3) major Democrat Counties in Ohio—Cuyahoga,Fulton and Lucas— and still prevail in that State. The 2012 include everything through today!
He thinks this country can survive perpetual trillion dollar deficits.
The tweet Robbie put up is good news. If they were essentally tied, but Obama up a point in rounding, than Obama must have been around 47.6 in the NBC poll.
PPP doesn’t have to get it right to stay in business. The MSM and various liberal advocacy groups will keep PPP in business indefinately because PPP tells them what they want to hear.
-Polaris
Robbie Troll predicts Obama win.
I predicted he would do that months ago.
I hope I am right about Romney too.
Actually PPP seems to put a lot of faith in its early vote numbers. That seems to be he recipe for a bad poll.
DRUDGE: GALLUP
OBAMA 48%
ROMNEY 48%
There are still 2 days unaccounted for in Early Voting. All those black churches in those Ohio counties probably got a lot “wag” or “swag” money or wahtever it’s called to turn out voters.
313. If Romney wins PPP will still be right. Their polls are within the MOE.
“He thinks this country can survive perpetual trillion dollar deficits.”
Who thinks the country will survive?
329. Not good. No way to spin it.
309…bio mom…
What’s with ohio? ooo ahead? God forbid!
…btw folks, i’ve seen several comments here referencing WSJ writers….one BIG word to the wise: NEVER….NEVER…..NEVER confuse a WSJ writer with the editorial page of that paper….many articles have been written suggesting theat the front page of the WSJ is perhaps MORE liberal than even the NY Times.
Thank the good Lord for the editorial page.
#329 That’s the Gallup swing state poll released this morning, not their tracker.
Gallup had Romney up by 5.
Massive collapse by Romney.
Very nice story about Neil Newhouse, Romney’s pollster.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83288.html
332 so you’re voting Obama to tank the country?
Jack, Honest answer but sad….why are you here when you know this a pro mitt site? What business are you in?
#232 #184…..anyone, and i mean ANYONE, that proposes cuts to any military benefits should be shot. Then hung.
Then shot again.
————————————-
actually the military guys will lose their benefits only if they are working.
the basic idea is to push the cost onto private companies.
320 – Agree. I would have picked 6 for PPP on OH but now that I think about it, 5 is still technically in MOE.
I do think the race changed though. Romney had serious momentum. Won’t go into it again. Will stick to a narrow Romney EV victory.
The news in Illinois could be good for the House races I guess. If Obama is re-elected, I really don’t give a chit about anything else since he uses EO’s to get around congress.
Just got another Romney call – the recording though offered to connect me with a live person if I had any questions.
Damn, Romney is good.
151. Again, Ras does not “use” PID weighting per se. He selects his sample based on his monthly PID results and then applies an LV screen to them. Recently, he has been “finding” a D+2 electorate. He has not “chosen” that weighting. It is the result of the process. If you reverse engineer the daily toplines using internals, you will find that the PID fluctuates day to day (usually a half point or so) and weekly (per the weekly crosstabs). Today’s sample is approx. D+2, yesterday’s was approx. D+1.
#329 Is that RV or LV? Remember that Obama was up one IIRC (48-47) in the last RV Gallup poll.
Even if it is the worst (LV), 48-48 tie as the challenger is not a bad place to be at all. It all would depend on the undecideds break.
-Polaris
Scooter Boy – that’s the Gallup Swing Poll, not the final Gallup poll.
329
That is the swing state poll not the head to head.
I don’t care for the WSJ. The one magazine I kind of like is Economist for whatever reason. As far as newspapers, the Guardian is good at times.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/
48-48 in swing states.
Looking at ras and Gallup sandy was a 3 to 5 pt bump for o. Who makes up their minds like that. Hopefully we see some movement our way mon tues. however we have lost control of the narrative since sandy. Still hopeful but not nearly as confident as last Sunday.
337. Okay, I just got the tweet so posted it. What was Gallup swing state at before they stopped polling?
USA/Gallup swing state – tied at 48 don’t panic
Scooter Boy….ten hours in the penalty box for “poor read of reality”.
Sorry, buddy, but you earned that.
327.Robbie Troll predicts Obama win.
I predicted he would do that months ago.
I hope I am right about Romney too.
Comment by jason — November 4, 2012 @ 7:36 pm
I call it like I see it. If I saw at least half of the most recent polls showing Romney ahead in Ohio, I’d probably predict he’d win the state. But other than one Rasmussen poll and a Citizen’s United poll, that hasn’t been the case. Right now, I think Romney’s got a better chance in PA than OH.
#337 Not necessarily. Depends on which Gallup. Gallup had Obama up by 1….with RVs when the tracks stopped.
-Polaris
Adrian Gray ?@adrian_gray
First wave of exit polls in 2004: PA (Bush -19), OH (-4), FL (-4). First round in 2000: PA (+0.2), OH (+10), FL (-3). You’ve been warned.
The gallup swing also appears to be registerd voters – per Susan Page.
I always vote in Chicago on election day. I haven’t seen any stories but I can tell you that everybody that’s told me they voted waited in long lines.
My parents who live in a dem leaning upscale suburb waited a long time too.
Still #s are #’s if somebody has data that Chicago is down, i’d certainly believe it. A whole lot less buzz, bumper stickers and window signs this time.
That Gallup came out earlier today. SS poll.
How could the Gallup Swing State Poll be bad for Romney if it is a 48/48 tie?
jack–this Gallup Swing State Poll is a rebuke to all the PPP/Jensen polls which show your False Messiah ahead by 3 to 5 pts. in every Swing State!
Diamond Jim
Are we going to win in Wisconsin?
A better question is why are all of you so unrealistic just as you were in 2008? It’s Polaris and his followers again. Accept it and deal with it. Move on. Hope to hold onto the House.
Scooter – don’t worry. I know a lot of people are nervous, and react to a lot of information.
This thing is very close. Too close for comfort…..
What states will have exit polls this cycle? I thought I read they were scaling back exit polling this time.
Sorry, everybody. Rookie mistake.
“jack
Please explain how your False Messiah can be down substantially in the 2012 early voting compared with 2008 in the three(3) major Democrat Counties in Ohio—Cuyahoga,Fulton and Lucas— and still prevail in that State. The 2012 include everything through today!”
Let’s see what the numbers are after the EV is over. Right now, the EV numbers are close to 2008 EV, with 2 days still left.
And before you spout off about Ohio, Fulton is not a large nor a Democratic county. Do your f**king homework.
#361 Most of the polling is provably using 2008 type modeling, and it’s not a 2008 type election. That is easy to verify now with the facts on the ground.
GIGO
-Polaris
If that Gallup swing poll is RV, then Romney is up 3 with LVs. 3 points is the average point bump toward the GOP when you go from RVs to LVs.
Oh wait, I’m on Philly-A-Hole probation. Can’t say I’m sorry. Or maybe I’m sorry. With GFY’s
#365-
One day to go in Ohio early voting,genius. Now please answer my question.
jack – the numbers are conclusive. The R counties are up and the D counties are down from their respective levels in 08. Do you dispute this?
This bullchit early voting needs to end.
“332 so you’re voting Obama to tank the country?
Comment by EML — November 4, 2012 @ 7:37 pm”
Do you always take facts not in evidence?
Who said I’m voting Obama?
I have said Obama will win on Nov 6. That is all.
Funny that no one but you says the EV voters are close to 2008 in Ohio. Everyone else is pointing to a large dropoff of Demoncraps, with increases for Republicans and Independents. But go ahead and live in your own little world, Jack. Does it have two or three moons?
I’ll just throw this out there. I think Romney might have a better shot at the NH/WI than PA or OH. That combo gets him over 270.
…and all we’ve said is that your an idiot, Jack.
Polaris, really? You’re trying again. Get a new hobby.
IF it is RV. We have zero real proof of that.
Goddamn Christie.
Even if the Gallup poll (the real complete one I mean) is a tie, a 48-48 tie usually means death for the incumbant. (No the final Gallup in 2004 was NOT 49-49…it you read that poll it was really 49-47 Bush and that actually indicates a win for the incumbant since if even a small minority switch over it puts the incumbant at the magic 50 level).
-Polaris
So jack you think we can run trillion dollar deficits in perpetuity?
The gallup poll is for likely voters. If you watch the chart on the page I linked, Obama actually gets an uptick among registered voters to 50% and Romney lost some ground.
However, among likely voters it is tied.
Republicans have about a 50-42% enthusiasm gap. Let’s see if that’s a good proxy to turnout numbers.
Got it. Jack is a Ronulan.
366.#361 Most of the polling is provably using 2008 type modeling, and it’s not a 2008 type election. That is easy to verify now with the facts on the ground.
GIGO
-Polaris
Comment by Polaris — November 4, 2012 @ 7:43 pm
You should read the story on Neil Newhouse. In it, another R pollster says it’s not so much the 2008 turnout as it is predicting an increase in Hispanics and Blacks. That alone increases D participation. The fight is over the percentage of whites nationally.
60 minutes just said that the senate was ONCE a showcase of america’s political talent
where the likes of LBJ, ted kennedy and howard baker often compromised to pass landmark legislation!
i can see them saying lbj and teddy had some political talent of a sorts
but lbj and teddy were our showcase?
Robbie- The one state you are missing is WI. Jensen and Marist had it at 2-3 points. Ras has it tied and said in WI the momentum is with Romney. Obama has practically set up headquarters there recently. I believe that this may be the surprise cliffhanger of the night.
360 yes
337. That’s not the Gallup poll that will be released tomorrow its a swing state poll done for USA Today.
“There are still 2 days unaccounted for in Early Voting. All those black churches in those Ohio counties probably got a lot “wag” or “swag” money or wahtever it’s called to turn out voters.
Comment by Diogenes — November 4, 2012 @ 7:36 pm”
That is why I say, wait till all EV is done before summarizing.
As of Nov 1, Cuyahoga County was at 29% of 2008 total votes. (In 2008, the county had 39.5% of total as EV.) In two days, as of Nov 3, they had upped that to 36.9%.
In Cuyahoga, the numbers in the Early vote are NOT “close to 2008″.
They’re 20% down. Here are the official numbers from the board of elections.
Read.
http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf
Polaris,
if you are wrong and obama wins
you will never hear the end of it
and brandon will mention you in every post until the end of time
Sorry it is likely @ 48-48.`
#375 Not really. I am reminding people here the facts on the ground. We are NOT looking at a Dem heavy electorate. If we use 2008 as a base and assume that both the Dems and GOP are as jazzed as the Dems were in 2008 (which is what the latest Gallup SS Poll states and which I frankly do not believe), then we’d get a 39/37/24 DRI, i.e. the missing republicans would come up.
That would be D+2…and Obama loses D+2.
-Polaris
John in Ireland…
Great analysis…
Your postion and view of where we are is exactly where mine is…
I’m choosing to believe my eyes and excellent analysis of all on this blog…
Facts speak to a Romney win which I will take over the agenda of MSM and those in Obama’s pocket…
Really couldn’t have said it better…
Thank you…
Dio – I suspected it was a RV.
A significant and real bump for Obama thank to fat load traitor. Yea, it could fade but that needs to happen very fast.
jack #371
You do provide comic relief.
By the way, Obama’s early voting numbers in Ohio are awful. Do your research by going to the gmu report.With one day left in Cuyahoga,Dem. votes are only 80,000 ahead of Rep. votes.Dem. votes are down double digits and Republican votes up double digits in Cuyahoga. The same pattern in Lucas and Fulton.
Nervous yet?
392 – Correction – I intended to type LV. Sorry.
#388 Is that supposed to scare or bother me, Lisab?
If you are right and you know you are right, you don’t back down from that. When I say the electorate is nothing like 2008, I *know* I am right…not from blind faith but from the same observational data we’ve all seen.
Either you believe your lying eyes or you don’t.
-Polaris
Scott – Jack is a Ronulan.
“Funny that no one but you says the EV voters are close to 2008 in Ohio. Everyone else is pointing to a large dropoff of Demoncraps, with increases for Republicans and Independents. ”
which is why i gave romney
VA, NC, FL OH and CO for the win
actual votes on the ground seem to point to a lower dem turnout than predicted by the polls
although i normally tend to give polling firms benefit of the doubt
Seems Romney picked PA over WI for last stop
Illinois data is Chicago only not suburbs or downstate. Ev downstate has been strong. Illinois may have a few surprises.
“Is that supposed to scare or bother me, Lisab?”
well … it usually bothers you when brandon posts as you …
395 – that is what Willie Nelson said to his third wife when she walked on him when he was, ah, “encumbered” with another woman:
“Are you going to believe me or your eyes are seeing”?
She believed what her eyes were seeing.
JOIN DAVE WISSING AND BUNU IN VOTING FOR OBAMA ON TUESDAY !!!!
if cook county is way down
it is actually possible for IL to flip GOP.
it would take a snow storm or heavy rains on tuesday in chicago
Please! Again, ignore polls that include the big hurricane response days of W and R . They are not reliable.
Wow- so Cuyahoga EV has only had 1 beat of the 2008 in person numbers this week (with 1 day left). That beat was by 202 votes. Looks like they petered out this week.
#381 The AA population is not greatly increasing (the Hispanic one is) and Obama get every AA vote that could be gotten in 2008 (see GA as a prime example). Those Dems that are depending on more AA vote than 2008 are dreaming.
I also don’t see any evidence that there is a a hispanic wave that can make up a +5R electoral shift either. I am ASSUMING a 74% white turnout which was a record low in 2008…that is actually very Obama favorable.
-Polaris
2000 posts????
I guess we’ll find out soon.
Don’t go to bed tonight Dave.
403 – It would take an apocalypse that would wipe out Chicago.
Also- guys that were around in 1996 (as voters) didn’t the polls overstate Clinton’s win that year by a fairly large margin?
Big R supporter … but the polls are depressing.
Robbie Troll’s theory that there will be “more black votes” is asinine.
#400 If Brandon or anyone else posts as me (or anyone else), he should be banned from this site. That goes for anyone that hijacks someone else’s handle (and I don’t mean joke handles).
-Polaris
Polaris – I am assuming 75.3% white vote. The 08 results represented a front loading of the decrease of the white vote. Axelrod said 72%. No way. That would represent an increase of the decrease of white voters from 2004 to 2008. I believe that is impossible. The indie vote worries me a bit because of fat load traitor.
What states will have exit polls this cycle? I thought I read they were scaling back exit polling this time.
#409 Very large margin. Dole was toast anyway, but IIRC a number of the polls overstated Clinton’s win by as much as 11pts (and Clinton won by 9 IIRC)
-Polaris
Early voting is a better approximator than polls. Real data over second-hand data. Unfortunately, it looks like weekends were no longer avaiable to vote this year so it makes the comparison harder.
And even if Dem enthusiasm is down, it’s hard to gauge how much as they can still turn out on election day. We also do not know how absentees are working do we?
Ohio is too close for comfort as always.
I think Wisconsin + NH or Wisconsin + Iowa are legitimate backup plans as well as Pennsylvania. Of course, PA is the least likely, but if you have plenty of money, there’s absolutely no reason not to try.
You have a bunch of left wing pollsters within the MOE. They will nail it no matter what.
“Funny that no one but you says the EV voters are close to 2008 in Ohio. Everyone else is pointing to a large dropoff of Demoncraps, with increases for Republicans and Independents. ”
Two points – first of all, who is voting EV is pure conjecture, nobody knows DRI of EV, every one is speculating based on counties that went for Obama or McCain.
Second, do you ever check any numbers for yourself, or just parrot what you read on the internet?
Here’s what GMU is reporting for EV in Ohio:
1,628,013 EV’s in 2008
1,665,089 EV’s in 2012, with at least 2 more days to go.
Are the 2012 EVs close to 2008 EVs or not?
Looks like the PEW poll might be even worse then we thought – look at this tweet:
@NumbersMuncher @ningrim Pew- the likely voter number shows a much higher D-4 it looks like D-8.. if u check the party ideology D-978 R-834.
Ohio was won by Obama in 08 with 2,940,044 total votes. Bush won in 04 with 2,858,727 total votes.
The question is; you think Obama will match, exceed or fall short of that number and where do you think Romney will be relative to Bush’s number.
I believe it is impossible to get “more” AA votes. He can come very close to 08 but cannot get more.
MD….
I have been out all day. Someone help me with this:
………………………………………………………..
jack says:
November 4, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Gallup had Romney up by 5.
Massive collapse by Romney. what does this mean?
#413 I hear you about Indies, MD. That is the one bit of tiniest doubt I have, but in the end I simply do not believe that one photo-op with “Fat Load” as you call him will completely undo a rejection by Indies of Obama that has been in place since 2009. It may soften it, but I do not (in the end) think it reverses it.
-Polaris
409- Yes. Polls were predicting low teens, Clinton won by 8 and didn’t clear 50.
415- Right, I recall people expecting mid-50s for Clinton (right, three way race and all, but still). Just to keep in the back of one’s mind, there have been since 1960 or so only two dem incumbents that have run for reelection- Carter and Clinton, both had their margins significantly overstated – in Carter’s case in turned a close race to a blowout and in Clinton’s a landslide to a solid win. Probably means nothing, but I find it interesting.
The Gallup swing poll IS RV GUYS: 48-48
RELAX!!
#413 As for this wave of minority/AA vote, yea, it’s B.S. Obama pegged the needle with that vote last time. At *best* he matches in 2012, and judging from the responses in the EV, he won’t even do that.
-Polaris
The number for 2008 should be 1,714,812.
On Tuesday we will see if the polls with the big D advantage were right or not.
411.Robbie Troll’s theory that there will be “more black votes” is asinine.
Comment by jason — November 4, 2012 @ 7:56 pm
You need to read my comments more closely. The fight in the polling is over whether there will be more Blacks and Hispanics compared to trends. If there are, that would raise the number of Democrats in the polls on its own. Try harder, Jason.
CNN FINAL:
Obama 49 Romney 49
Game on, folks.
National CNN Poll
Romney 49
Obama 49
CNN Poll is good news for Romney if CNN is using the same model!
403. Lisa B, for once we agree IL on the cusp of flipping to RED!
Susy – “Jack” is a ronulan (Ron Paul supporter) who is throwing out garbage that has no basis in reality. No one has any idea what he is talking about.
Having said that Gallup has released a LV swing state poll showing a tie at 48. Perhaps they had Romney up by 5 before. I can believe the tightening given how Christie set Obama up to perfection.
I hope this clears things up for you.
Bunu predicted 188 house seats.
8)
CNN can’t do any better than that for Obama?
432- Did Wolf Blitzer soil himself on national TV?
CNN 49-49 national.
http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf
BAD #sin cuy county oh.
@426 Sy – Sorry it isn’t:
“WASHINGTON — Voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago, and they finally have made up their minds about President Obama and Mitt Romney.
It’s a tie: 48%-48%.
The even split among likely voters in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States reflects gains in the campaign’s final weeks by Obama, who has closed a 4-percentage-point deficit from early October in the wake of a disappointing first presidential debate. Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit, and the president’s disaster response may have bolstered his standing a bit since then.”
As for Jack’s laughable analysis, he claims that overall early voting is up. Yes, because Republicans are turning out this year to make up for decreased dem turnout. Hence the 260k gap that Rove and many pundits have alluded to.
I thought you might have had something but silliness is silliness.
gallup is saying rv 50-46, but 48-48 lv. but then there is this gem:
Registered voters are less likely to identify themselves as Democrats now than they were four years ago. In the Swing States survey, 37% call themselves Democrats, down 4 points from 2008; 29% call themselves Republicans, up 3 points. The percentage of independents is 34% now, 32% then.
so its D+8 and O is at 48%.
“If Brandon or anyone else posts as me (or anyone else), he should be banned from this site. That goes for anyone that hijacks someone else’s handle”
he usually posts as poolaris
however, i don’t like fake handles
Somebody help me!!!!! WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
I have been out all day. Someone help me with this:
………………………………………………………..
jack says:
November 4, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Gallup had Romney up by 5.
Massive collapse by Romney. what does this mean?
Cnn may have only polled in the last three days, hence the difference in Sandy bias of Pew.
MD….
I have been out all day. Someone help me with this:
………………………………………………………..
jack says:
November 4, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Gallup had Romney up by 5.
Massive collapse by Romney. what does this mean?”
That was based on someone posting that Gallup had the race as tied. I believe that report has been retracted.
If Gallup shows a 48-48 tie, it will be a massive collapse. Remember that Gallup had R +5 when they left us.
#431&432
Good news.Please report the PID when available.
Nervous yet,Jack?!
434 – any questions guys on Burgundy now?
Wow, the CNN is good news….
They must have taken some anti-vomit medicine before releasing that one.
I stand by what I said, Jack. Now go what you do best, Jack–jack off.
CNN doesn’t release party ID if I remember correctly.
Jack is a Ronulan. It is quite clear.
Let’s take Gallup at 48-48.
Who do you think gets the undecided?
#422
It means the power of Satan is in evidence Susy. After Tuesday, you will know the dark identity of your new eternal master.
#418 first of all, who is voting EV is pure conjecture, nobody knows DRI of EV, every one is speculating based on counties that went for Obama or McCain.
No it’s not. The OHIO SOS keeps track of the partisan “ID” of each voter that requests a ballot. That “ID” is determined by the last primary election (by party) they voted in.
It’s not perfect, but you can make reasonable partisan inferences from the Ohio EV data.
Also some states (like NC) are required by the Civil Rights/Voting Rights Laws to keep track of full demographic info of voters (so the Feds can assess if there is a pattern of voter suppression). Part of that data is partisan ID and another part is ethnic ID.
So we can learn quite a lot about the nature of the real electorate from the early vote in places like Ohio and NC without actually knowing who voted for whom.
-Polaris
for once we agree IL on the cusp of flipping to RED!”
i did not say that …
i said chicago keeps the otherwise red state blue.
if chicago somehow does not turn out, it flips.
and … btw … chicago voting is way down.
If Obama wins at least it will be nice to see the Paulbots live under the socialist model they so much want.
Blitzer choked when he tried to read the poll.
Ca will flip red too.
“Bunu predicted 188 house seats.”
huh?
Republicans will easily hold the house.
well cnn needs to be within 3 to be considered even close to reliable
so saying it is 49/49 is the safest play
obama only got 52.9% in 2008 so they are completely covered … i doubt obama will get less than 46% or more than 52%.
I guess the good news for me is that having a desire to earn serious money won’t be an issue for me anymore. It will relieve a lot of stress for me. I can just kind of wind down, get out of my high stress job and still do OK. Why bother when they would just take it away in taxes?
” if chicago somehow does not turn out, it flips.”
If I win the Powerball Lottery I will be rich.
47 percent Mittens!
I posted my predictions.
I went with Romney with 305 EV’s.
#442 You do realize what Gallup is saying there? It’s huge, confirms what they said before, and it’s more important than the top line:
Gallup is saying that there are 4% less self IDed Dems and 3% more self IDed republicans.
Given that 2008 was a D+7 Electorate, that means Gallup is essentially saying (whatever their top line) that they expect the DRI to be a PUSH just like 2004.
If the DRI is a PUSH, Obama loses. Badly.
-Polaris
Jack
Do you support Ron Paul or did you support him?
I think, by oath, they are not permitted to lie on this issue. When they sign the book to hate jews it is in the fine print on the same page.
“Ca will flip red too.”
IL is almost completely red except for cook county
and a few other much smaller cities
Any detailed CNN poll info?
What about job approval?
Tina, I know you don’t believe that CA is going to flip. Even I don’t believe that one!
Romney: 235 (per Wissing)
House: 188 (R)
Senate: 46 (R)
47.8% in Ohio
Comment by Bunu — November 4, 2012 @ 11:39 am
If I read the Real Clear politics chart correctly,in CNN’s last National Poll in late September,Obama was +3.
So Jack,who has the momentum?
Shocked at CNN. Everything pointing to a long night.
A tied poll is a winning poll. We’re the challenger. Larry Sabato said so in 2004.
Ron, it was a joke.
Lisa – you know there is a 98% (probably 99%) chance he will fall in that range. It isn’t exactly going out on a ledge. I understand what you are saying though. 49/49 means they cannot be wrong. Well, it would be almost impossible.
however, i don’t like fake handles
Comment by lisab
Be honest right wingers,You all,or most,Have Done Well the past 4 years under our President..Get over those racist views and lies and ask the GOP Congress to Work with Obama instead of trying to defeat him…It didn’t work out very well for your team did it..More Senators also to help Obama push his agenda the next 2 years at least!
here is an article on the IL voting trends
http://www.chicagonow.com/chicago-muckrakers/2010/11/illinois-electoral-map-not-so-blue-these-days/#image/1
#471
The real Bunu hasn’t been posting as “Bunu” in years.
O wins CA by 15 to 20.
Paulbots don’t believe in elections anyway.
like i’ve said. no clue how this one turns out. that said im going into election night expecting a close but no cigar for us. cautious pessimism. if and it’ s a big IF Romney wins, he wins close w/ 280ish being his ceiling. azguy and Ron Burgundy/kit will go away but return w/ different handles when the 350+ fantasy doesnt come true
Wow!
NumbersMuncher ?@NumbersMuncher
CNN national poll tied at 49%. Romney up 22 with independents. Sample is D+11 (was D+7 in 08, even in 2004/2010). Taken 11/2-4
Remind me, what does PUSH stand for or mean?
CNN poll: Romney leads with Indies, leads on the economy, tied with Obama on favourability.
Only black spot is 51% approval for Obama – would confirm Sandy bounce hypothesis.
btw if your into superstitions, the Panthers beating the skins today was a good sign for the good guys
THANKS JACK… I still am a bit confused about the collapse comment. Is the person who said that a troll?
“you know there is a 98% (probably 99%) chance he will fall in that range.”
yes, that was my point
hardly a courageous stand by cnn
they basically said flip a coin
I think that Swing State poll was done the weekend before and during Sandy.
Joe – you owe me some serious $. In your debate a few weeks back, I stared directly into your teeth and have had blurry vision ever since. 3 trips to the eye Doctor. $700. Pony up.
“Romney up 22 with independents.”
WTF?!
D+11??????
Sample is D+11 its TIED???????????? LOL LOL LOL
I’m not sure @numbersmuncher is right about the party ID of the CNN poll. Reading the internals, my best take is they reweighted to D+1, though it’s not 100% clear.
D+11??? Hhahahhahahahaha!
Author – You only have 2 settings – Doom and gloom.
I will say you have about a 10% chance of pulling out a win,Only if Florida and Ohio have severe voting problems because of the repression at the polls of minority’s and the D party from those states Gov’s.And dont say its not happening because they did these things before to win.So Cheat to win is All you can do.
Congress is R+1 per CNN. Romney prolly leads a little in that 49-49 race.
OK… the Gallup final swing state for LVs is tied, and it IS LVs. Gallup write-up discusses ‘movement toward zero,’ too.
Am I misreading it?
Please, someone explain what PUSH stands for or means!
PUSH = tie
It must be because I’m a Rookie, but I think I have s-h-i-t my pants with every new poll released here over the last few days. I don’t know if I can take 2 more days of this. If I don’t show up here tomorrow or Tuesday, someone please look at the Obits in the Alton Telegraph newspaper. That’s where you’ll probably find me.
It cannot be D+11. I refuse to believe that. Need more confirmation than a twitter post.
D+11?? I hope the rest of you feel a little better about that CNN poll? no?
Geez…if CNN partied like it’s 2008, they’d actually show a Romney lead with those internals!
-Polaris
D+11 and up 22% with Indies, and tied?!! Slam dunk for R&R.
#491 Paul Ryan still has a sore ass from the kicking I gave him! LOL
#484 (GASP!!!!!!)
The term PUSH originates from blackjack. Lost a few bucks playing the game….
440# Tina, Cuyahoga County has 1 day on ev and they are20% below 2008. On Election Day the GOP wiill out do the dems all over the state. Also, I think you will see a lot of dems voting for mitt.
Susy
Push is what you do when you are ready to drive it home!
What? Oh, she wasn’t asking about THAT?
Never mind.
Tom Smith’s daughter just called me (robocall, of course). I don’t know how old she is but if she’s under 18, it bothers me. I don’t like children as props no matter who does it.
damn trolls make the comment section near un-readable
Not buying the D+11 stuff for CNN.
Even they wouldn’t try that.
I have a HARD time believing it is D +11. This would be the all time agenda push poll ever.
I want more confirmation on the party ID. I find it very hard to believe that one.
Per another site (not sure if accurate)-
The CNN poll is Drat plus 11
Romney plus 22 with indies.
11-2 through 11-4.
Please verify- again from another site.
#510 Coal country in NE and E Ohio, baby
#365, jackoff, he obviously meant to write Franklin instead of Fulton.
Your boy Obama is not going to carry OH, and without OH Obama can’t win.
Romney will win with over 300 electoral votes. I predicted 322 myself, but your mileage may vary.
Csant, thanks for your posts, I pulled up the voting information and it is not good for the Obumbler.
Pray Susy pray
Early voting just finished in Miami-Dade County.
In 2008, 325k early votes
In 2012 225k early votes.
Call the cops. 100,000 Florida Democrats have gone missing.
509 – Me too. More than a few bucks actually.
Media and pollsters will have egg on their face as Romney landslide is revealed on the night of Tuesday, Nov 6th!
Republicans are on fire and Dems are not. Just look at the crowds for Romney/Ryan vs Obama/Biden. Tuesday will be a very good day.
According to the actual poll-
Romney leads 99-1 with the GOP
O leads 93-5 with dems
Romney leads 59-37 with Indies.
Umm…mind you, among Indies- Ronald Reagan won 64-36 in 1984. While winning 59-41.
So yeah, that breakdown is inconceivable.
Re: Ohio …300,000 evangelicals didn’t vote in 2008. The GOP is trying to get them to the polls.
If Romney is up 22 percent among indies, it’s a 320+ EV victory for Romney
Another Mitt ad on NBC. They may hate his politics but they don’t mind his ad buys.
“Jack
Do you support Ron Paul or did you support him?”
No and no.
“THANKS JACK… I still am a bit confused about the collapse comment. Is the person who said that a troll?”
I haven’t checked who posted it. It’s still up in the thread.
And here comes Tom Smith on NBC.
Guys, I am 99% sure the CNN poll as weighted is D+1 or D+2.
It is NOT D+11.
Romney is going to win. He’s got several polls now showing moves to near ties in PA, and western PA is demographically like eastern OH, which means Romney is doing well there. Republicans are well in front of their 2008 EV totals, and in Cuyahoga county Dems are well off their numbers in EVs from 2008. If Repubs reclaim Hamilton county, this is over. Mitt wins OH. If Romney is tied in PA, even though he will end up losing, if he’s close, he’s winning in OH, which is nominally GOP leaning historically and Dems tend to run 1.5-2% BELOW their national numbers there as Obama did even in 2008. Mitt will pick off suburb votes and do well in Repub strongholds, and only wild card is how many of Santorum’s guys hold their noses and vote for him. I think they come home enough.
Mitt wins OH on election day, even McCain did, and the better shape among absentee’s and EVs coupled with the other factors above, put him over the top and he wins like CO and the election!
Pray, do all the superstitious stuff, do anything that helps.
But Colin Powell answers back.
See page 30 of the CNN PDF.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf
Again.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D58LpHBnvsI
Again, no pollster is releasing anything like a D+11 sample in their last poll.
If it’s sounds too fantastic to betrue, it usually is.
@ConArtCritic
Confirmed via phone to the Ohio SOS- first results posting are absentees/early vote. machine same-day votes will report after
532- See page 30 of the poll- I kid you not.
I read that to be a terrible Gallup swing state poll: 50-47 for zero among RVs; tied among LVs, with zero having moved up from -4 to even; all the polling was before Sandy.
Thaty weekly standard article on cook cty voting is utter crap. 229k votes have been cast per site. Discrepancy is claim that county is adding ev and absentee. That might be true but I doubt it.
So, we have one or two polls with movement toward Romney, and two polls showing movement toward the Obumbler.
how do you know evangelicals did not vote in 2008?
@ConArtCritic
So, watch for a MASSIVE Obama lead out of Ohio, if the polls are actually right. If he doesn’t start with that…the polling blew it.
CNN REGISTERED VOTERS
307 Dems
111 Inds who lean Dems
152 Inds who lean GOP
293 GOPers.
That’s from their crosstabs. Doesn’t give a breakdown, but there’s a clear GOP lead with Indies, and 307/293 can’t be much more than D+2 at max.
“Cuyahoga County has 1 day on ev and they are20% below 2008.”
Where do you get this crap?
Here’s the actual on Cuyahoga County:
Cuyahoga Cnty 196,844 EVs cast, 35.9% of total 2008 votes,
672,750 total 2008 votes, 39.5% were EVs
Even if the D +11 isn’t correct, if the Indy number is then Romney wins. Agree?
546 was as of Nov 3
Faith Hill may be a flaming lib but she is hot and can seriously sing.
Does CNN hard weight their poll? Maybe they don’t, like Gallup.
549- Way better legs than Hank Jr.
Wouldn’t it have to be D+11 to get a tie when Romney leads indies by 22?
Tina, trying to call it as I see in Ohio….Mitt will win…I think all the Ohio posters except Jack agree…
MNW – a good part of it was during Sandy I believe. Not sure though.
Mfg did it ever occur to you that god finds the hall monitor to be annoying and a pest and doesn’t grant her wishes? I read her drivel everyday and it makes me question my views.
If Rs leading indies by 22, how do they get a tie unless its very Dem heavy?
Gallup swing state poll has Romney up among indies by only 1 point.
Gallup swing state is ominous, imo. Maybe I’m missing something within this poll? I hope I am.
I give up…..is the CNN poll good news with a huge Dem oversample….is it good news because Romney up big with Independents or is all of this nonsense since its a Sunday poll in the midst of a huge hurrican recovery effort?
“See page 30 of the CNN PDF.
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf”
it is page 29 not 30
NT and something bizarre just happened to this site.
NumbersMuncher
Romney increased lead with indies today in Rasmussen (+9) and WaPo trackers (+3). Leads w/ indies by 7 in NBC/WSJ and 22 in CNN nat’l polls.
Jack, do a Google search and key in “Ohio Early Vote Google Doc” First link comes up will be the .pdf
It is NOT a huge Dem oversample.
it also has obama leading 50 and older 50 to 48%
Give it up, Jack. Your last post made no sense.
MD
Gallup says exactly the oppisite: that it was all pre-Sandy, & that “Obama may have moved up a little” after the poll, due to Sandy.
Everybody ought to read that Gallup carefully, imo.
bitterlaw, Bing “faith hill no makeup”.
CNN poll is 41D/30R/29I
Wow. lisab is correct. Page 29 of the .pdf.
New thread
More thoughts on PEW. Comparing this O 48-45 PEW lead with O 45-49 PEW deficit 2 weeks ago. One thing seems off, ideology. Two weeks ago, O/R was 22-74 and now it is 22-73 for Conservatives. It went from O/R 56-36 to 56-35 for Moderates. It went from O/R 85-9 to 89-4 for Liberals. So Obama did gain on Liberals. But given Liberals form about 20% of the population was that enough for the topline to go from 45-49 to 48-45? I think not. Looking at the PEW poll two weeks ago, the CML (Conservative/Moderate/Liberal) breakdown was 46.3/35/18.7. This current poll the CML breakdown is 43.2/34.1/22.7.
There is always the argument that if there is a shift toward Obama, that same switcher might as a result identify more with the Democrats so to attack the PEW Poll in DRI might not be fair. But ideology tends not to change and is much more stable in the USA over the last 30 years. It is hard to imagin someone saying to themselves, I now back Obama so I am a Liberal versus a Moderate. Certainly I find it hard to believe that over 3% of the population over 2 weeks will switch their ideology. I am not saying the PEW poll is wrong, I am saying it is inconsistent with its poll 2 weeks ago. Both cannot be accurate.
The last known Gallup breakdown by ideology was CML 46/32/20 in May 2012. That was general population so LV might be more skewed toward Conservatives. Anyhow, Gallup’s numbers seems to imply the PEW poll two weeks ago are closer on getting the ideology balance correct. But one never know. There might be a surge of Liberal voters next tuesday.
Prayer couldn’t hurt Add
#526 Let me try to reverse engineer the DRI with the poll data:
According to the actual poll-
Romney leads 99-1 with the GOP
O leads 93-5 with dems
Romney leads 59-37 with Indies.
I will make two simplifying assumptions based on the above data:
1. I will assume that 100% of the GOP sample goes Romney (makes the math easier). By the same token I will assume that Obama gets 95-5 Dems (again to make the math easier)
2. I will assume that the D+R+I is 100% (I am ignoring third party results)
By making this assumptions I am also assuming that virtually all undecided voters are Indies (which seems reasonable to me).
When I crank the algebra I get a possible DRI of: 32D/18R/50I or D+14.
Given my assumptions, I think Numbermuncher is right! He may be understating it in fact.
-Polaris
Note on the CNN poll that Mitt’s numbers are improving from previous CNN polls
So the relative movement is for Mitt
The reason to be elated by the CNN poll are dates it was taken, R, F, and Sat. More reliable although R is still an unreliable day.
“Where is OHIO JOE. Didn’t he have access to internals?” Mr. Romney’s is down to about 2.5 points in Ohio instead of 4 according to GOP internal polling.
PPP says Obama wins Virginia by 5 – 52/47.
Say what you like about Jensen, the dude has balls the size of beachballs. He’s basically put his entire firm’s credibility on the line.
I firmly believe he’s wrong, but you have to give him some credit for the commercial risk he’s taking.
MI and PA are tied, but O has a chance of winning?
You guys must be smokin some good crack!
Polaris, what do you make of that “massive” early/absentee vote for Dems in Chicago. I looked at Illinois Review, and my gosh, if this is true, might be a sign of a virtual landslide victory for Romney.
Illinois GOP is claiming an enormous 85% drop in Chicago absentee requests.
All of us would have liked to see Romney with comfortable leads in the latest polls, but did we really expect it? Fake momentum and partisan polls represent chapters one and two in the liberal playbook. Let’s wait for the votes to be cpunted.
Polls aside, my area of PA has never looked so red. Crowds of 30,000? Early vote rotals? Mitt’s demeanor? The disconnect can’t be ignored.
Interesting comments. One thing a lot of people here seem to be missing is that a lot of Tea Party supporters have switched from self identifying as Republicans to self identifying as Independents. That’s why most pollsters are showing a Democratic edge but also showing Romney way up with independents. Independents just now include a lot more people who are really Republicans than they did in 2008. Pollsters aren’t weighting “like it’s 2008″ because legitimate pollsters don’t weight for party ID since it’s mutable. They only weight by things that can’t be changed like age, sex, race, etc. The party IDs just fall as they may. Dem percentages are off from 2008 but Rep percentages are off even more since so many now ID as indys. Likewise EV results should surprise no one – Obama clearly isn’t going to win by 7% this year, more like 2%, so of course his numbers are down. Enjoy election day – always great to see democracy at work!
There are a lot of SERIOUSLY deluded people posting here.
Unless a majority of the state-wide polls are skewed by about 2% or more towards Obama, his chances of winning are now somewhere between 98% and 99.9%, depending on the assumptions you make about movement between now and Tuesday. (If you think the movement may be as large as anything seen in previous elections, the odds are 98%. If you think the movement will be a regression to the historical trend for this election cycle, the odds are 99.9%.)
But of course to believe that you need to have some connection to reality, statistics and simple math, which is apparently in short supply around here.
I might add that no poll aggregator has even once, for even one second, had Romney in the lead for this entire election cycle, let alone up to 270 EV’s.
Meanwhile, Obama has consistently ranged from about 281 to 347 EV’s.
Do people here think things will magically change in Romney’s direction during the last two days, after half the votes have already been cast?
Just read the fivethirtyeight blog and weep!
When Obama wins, it will be fun to watch the pisspants Republicans’ heads explode. They are the worst sore losers in history.
Their four-year tantrum will go on to a record breaking eight years.
Oh, and gun sales will go up, as they always do when a Democrat wins. What a bunch of cowering losers.
GSOBadger, pollsters don’t get their numbers from which party people identify themselves with. They get them from asking who they intend to vote for. I’m a registered Republican, but I voted for Obama, and may never vote Republican again.