Two New Polls From OH Show Tight Race, Tied in NH, Romney Leads in IA
Here is the much anticipated poll for the state of Ohio from Scott Rasmussen.
PRESIDENT – OHIO (Rasmussen)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
This poll was done November 4th among 750 likely voters. Meanwhile, the University of Cincinnati put out a poll showing Obama up y 1% in OH.
PRESIDENT – OHIO (U of Cincinnati)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
This poll was done October 31-November 4 among 901 likely voters. American Research Group gave us their final national ballot and their looks at Iowa and New Hampshire and basically, everything is knotted up.
PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (ARG)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%PRESIDENT – IOWA (ARG)
Mitt Romney (R) 49%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 48%
All three polls were done November 2-4 among 600 likely voters in each state and 1200 likely voters nationwide.
first
2
Years from now the question will be “Where were you when you heard about the R+6 electorate in 2012?”
If I remember correctly, Gallup’s last poll as to who would win has been wrong just twice. The first was in 1948 with Dewey, but they didn’t poll the last two weeks. The second was 1976 when Ford lead. Will Romney be the third, or will Gallup be right again?
ARG leans a bit to the left but I like that they show their work in a simple easy to see way.
+6D?
I like the indie numbers for ARG and they party loyalty is a net 4. 2008 was a net 3 so ARG, as noted, leans a bit to the left.
Tonight on WAPO the Wed drops off, which was probably a good Obama day. They do a four day tracker.
(repost from below)
About Rasmussen, since a tie rolls off tonight, I will go out of a small limb and predict an R+2 night rolls on.
This would push the Rasmussen top line to 50-48 Romney I believe. I would also say that this indicates a final prediction (if I were ras) of:
51-48 Romney (with 1% to 3PPs)
That’s what I am predicting for Ras tomorrow for his prediction.
-Polaris
I will go out and say that for a final Gallup 49-48 Romney is a fantastic result.
The prior Gallup was 51-46. Obama obviously solidified his base this last week (as we were warned) which means that last 2% have come home for him.
That’s 48% and as the Dem incumbant, the overwhelming political history tells us that this is is final number.
That means that the 3% of the current undecideds are former Romney voters taking a last minute pause. It strongly implies (just as the Rasmussen poll this morning implies) that they will break Romney overwhelmingly.
Based on this poll, Gallup is in effect predicting 51-48 Romney (with 1% for 3pps)
-Polaris
So we guessing on Gallup or relying a leak to Rush?
What’s the scoop?
#431 in the prior thread, Bitterlaw, you’re not the only one here to predict a Romney win in PA (check the prediction thread), although you are the only Philly A-hole to do so. So maybe you’re not such an A-hole then?
Yes I am saying that Gallup and Rasmussen are pretty much predicting the same election day result (more or less).
This should suprise no one since of late they’ve seen very similiar types of electorates and have rejected the 2008 model.
-Polaris
From the previous thread.
Don’t spend money on reeducation camps for the dems, just give them bus tickets to Tiujana.
The Mexican TV and movie industry needs plenty of extras.
Weird that the Gallup number is only on Bloombergbusiness page. NOT on Gallup.
So if Obama wins, Gallup and Rasmussen are done.
If Romney wins, PPP, Nate Silver, Marist are done.
#9 I am taking Matt Drudge’s word on it. Say what you want about Drudge, when he posts something like this, it’s almost always right.
-Polaris
Drudge was just linking to Bloomberg. And, now Drudge is linking to Gallup – and it’s not there!! WTF??!!
Frank Newport confirmed it; its right.
#15 Link to Drudge, Gallup still not showing it on their site.
http://www.drudgereport.com/
-Polaris
Thanks Polaris for your ras response on the previous thread.
Today, we have RAS Generic at 3 pm, WAPO at 5 pm and TIPP at 1100 pm.
(Apparently, I have no life. That’s basically what it amounts to.)
#20 TIPP is 11pm PST. That’s 1am EST for most of you.
-Polaris
Am I missing something here? Isn’t the big news of this latest batch of polls, the ARG result in Iowa??
My gosh, a left-leaning poll that shows Romney slightly ahead in the Hawkeye State. Is this the result of the Des Moine Register and other IA papers endorsements of Mitt?
And if we win Iowa, with Colorado in the bag, that brings us up to high 260s even without Ohio. Throw in New Hampshire??
Let’s hold off on analyzing Gallup until we see it on their site. It’s possible everyone jumped the gun. The Drudge link goes to the poll from last week.
#23 Not much to analyze yet Marv, but multiple sources have confirmed with Newport that the final Gallup number is in fact 49-48. That’s good enough for now.
I don’t expect Dave W to post it here of course without Gallup putting it on their site. That’s simple prudence.
-Polaris
It’s on the Gallup site. You just need to go to their Election section.
Doesn’t Gallup also provide a projection based on data?
12.From the previous thread.
Don’t spend money on reeducation camps for the dems, just give them bus tickets to Tiujana
Eric:
Actually, that’s not a nutty idea. PRI, the equivelant of the Democrat Party here in the U.S. won the Mexican elections 6 months ago, beating the moderately center-right PAN. So, American Dems will feel comfortable now living in Mexico.
#21 Polaris,
1 am EST and waiting for RIPP. Does that sound familiar? We did that back in 2008. TIPP has the perfect opportunity to move to D+3, or so. If they stay at D+7 and are wrong, then IBD should dump them.
3. “Years from now the question will be “Where were you when you heard about the R+6 electorate in 2012?”
Gosh. I sure as hell hope so.
I’d settle for a range of R+2 – 0 – D+1 …
#22, if Romney gets CO, IA and NH, but doesn’t win OH, WI or PA, he’d only have 267 EVs. Romney needs one of OH, WI or PA to seal the deal; fortunately, he’ll win all three.
Polaris…
The link on Drudge goes right to their site…
Confirms the poll…
23. It is up on Gallup 49-48 R
New Gallup:
ELECTION 2012 TRACKING
Nov 1-4, 2012
REGISTERED VOTERS
CHANGE
Obama 49% +1
Romney 46% -2
LIKELY VOTERS
Romney 49% -2
Obama 48 +2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
-Polaris
So we got WAPO and TIPP today. I also think Fox and CBS will release the final tonight. All these polls should knock the NJ poll off the board. Hopefully we don’t get another Zogby with the WT.
Polaris, your view on this new ARG result for Iowa? Encouraging??
Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t polls out of IA last few days ‘O’+ by a hair??
Gallup 49-48… and how much of that is Sandy bump which is sinking like a turd in a bird bath.
Gallup last JA is 52-45 approve
PEW
Obama—-48
Romney—45
Checking in. Started laughing when I saw the R+6 party ID for October in Ras. I think Ras and Gallup are not willing to go with a model based on what their Party ID index is telling them. They can simply say “We saw a close race and big movement for Romney, but had no idea this would happen” The party ID polls of Ras and Gallup indicate a blowout win for Romney. I am sure Gallup changed the R+1 model they are using. They are going to play it safe.
Marv,
Re: #444 from the last thread
This is life!
And if we win Iowa, with Colorado in the bag, that brings us up to high 260s even without Ohio. Throw in New Hampshire??
Comment by Eric Dondero — November 5, 2012 @ 1:29 pm
NH IOWA and Colorado only get us to 267
Not sold on the R +6 number.
Pretty clear to me that Obama is the one making the late charge at the end. Gallup and Ras pretty much say so.
It’s better than 51-48. It’ll be 52-47. Sandy gave us a few days of Romney-Obama 46-49 as squishies became undecideds and obama’s support firmed up. Then they stopped thinking about Sandy and started thinking again about normal issues and reverted to the 50-47 we’ve been seeing for weeks on Gallup. That is my completely personal intuition on the data as someone who was formerly a professional statistician (more or less) and I’m sticking to it.
Obama will only keep it relatively close because of Mourdock and Sandy and the huge ad buys in Ohio. Romney will be our president-elect tomorrow. I will not fret anymore. Romney won’t hit the 347 I hoped he would (no Sandy and another week of 50-47 Gallup and he would’ve been absolutely done in), but he will still win.
Ironically the early voting may have locked it up for Romney.
My advice to all the eeyores out there.
1) Pay attention to the election indicators we have known to be accurate year-in and year-out. Gallup Top-Line. Ras Turnout Numbers. etc. etc.
2) Statistics are only as good as the assumptions you make. Same with polling. I have seen no evidence that anything more than D +3 is an accurate turnout model for this election cycle. Pollsters are less peer-reviewed and rigorous than actual professional or academic statisticians too. That is cause for comfort.
3) Don’t listen to the news. Read the raw data with your own eyes. I will be watching CNN’s voting tallies and each state’s SOS site. NYTimes wasn’t that bad either in hard coverage if I recall correctly. VA’s voting totals should be known early and called for Romney. If PA is too close too call, you know we are looking at a president-elect Romney. If it’s within low single digits, he’s still in it.
So, American Dems will feel comfortable now living in Mexico.
Comment by Eric Dondero — November 5, 2012 @ 1:32
They will learn what “gringo” means.
I’ll take the PEW. As James Carville says… the incumbant never gets more than the last poll!!!
I guess considering the polling noise from Sandy I can live with Gallup at 49-48. I do note this information:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158435/voter-turnout-likely-fall-short-2004-2008.aspx
The turnout numbers seem to be dropping for 2012 and I consider that good news.
The numbers reflect pretty much what I said above. Obama solidified his support last week (as Caddel warned) and we see that in both the RV and LV numbers, while some of Romney’s supporters decided to take one last look before voting.
This implies that almost all the undecideds will either vote for Romney or stay home, and that means Romney wins.
In effect this final Gallup predicts a 51-48 election day PV result as I said before.
-Polaris
Gallup JA indicates that Sandy was driving nearly all of Obama’s bounce but most likely retreated during the weekend.
@42 – Wrong – Sandy threw a monkey in the wrench works complciated by the New Jersey Fat Turd. People are not going to vote on Sandy. Any Sandy effect is not completely dissipated yet.
Following elections long enough to know what matters. There is no movement towards Obama in any actual early voting data point we’ve seen so far. Just in polls that are including the tail-end of the Sandy Rally-around-the-President effect.
#42 Actually Ras is NOT saying so. Obama made his charge all the way up until this last weekend but the last few voters are breaking against him (see today’s Rasmussen in comparison to the others the past two days).
-Polaris
Predictions for the remaining polls?
CBS/NYTimes: You know they would never show Romney with a lead. O50/R48
ABC/WashPost: R49/O49
Fox News: O48/R47 (this poll has been brutal to Romney, and always has too many undecideds!)
IBD/TIPP: No idea. This poll uses too few voters each day. I haven’t given it much attention this election cycle. Neither should you.
Dio
I am with you 100%. Gallup has a feel of polls taken before the Bush drunk driving news on Friday before the 2000 election.
I currently sticking with my 2.2 to 3.2% Romney popular vote estimate.
Have there been any talking heads discussing the RAS electorate %?
“GALLUP NATIONAL
Rom 49
Obama 48
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx”
I AM OFF THE LEDGE.
REPEAT. I AM OFF THE LEDGE.
–US
I’m done worrying. All actual datapoints (early voting) points to the R enthusiasm we know will make the electorate no better than D+3 on election day. All reliable polling (ignoring the fools who polled during Sandy) shows a “tied” race with Obama unable to break 47/48 in a realistic model of the electorate.
Romney’s done the very best job he can. Stop being eeyores and help with the GOTV.
I think I’m done for the day. Cya on the trenchlines tomorrow.
Conventional wisdom says that the incumbent will get no more and maybe 1% less than his final average in the gallup poll. Sure hope that is true this year. Don’t know if that is just an old wives’ tale or not.
I notice O leads by 3 with registered voters in the gallup poll. So, a good likely voter screen done by gallup.
Gallup +5 falls off RCP, pushes Obama up to 0.5, 48.3-47.8. Bush was at 1.5 and 48.9 to 47.4.
Romney people are very confident.
All data points to it not being 2008. But is it enough to win in 2012?
I am predicting R+3 for the election! You heard it here first.
#56 There are two bits of polling conventional wisdom that apply to gallup and both are conforting.
1. The GOP candidate almost always overperforms his final Gallup number (or pretty much all polling….the only recent exceptions are 2008 and Neveda and I consider both special cases)
2. A democratic incumbant performs at best equal to his final Gallup number and often underperforms it. Incumbants in general almost always perform right around their final Gallup number (but see rule #1)
-Polaris
could not care less about the RCP average at this point.
It is meaningless.
I think an even electorate is more than reasonable.
#57 Exactly what I was complaining about earlier. Pretty much ALL of that Obama RCP lead is due to a bad and stale National Journal Poll.
-Polaris
57
Don’t really care about past averages that include hack pollsters.
To quote Navin Johnson in The Jerk.
“I want the new wine, get rid of this old stuff”.
Has this poll be posted-monmouth-SUSA
http://cms.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/c8af3c69-d7c7-4f41-9749-99d4fa948484.pdf
+4D 35D-31R
48-48
is 48 the magic number?
53-37 among indies. The d support level is very strong. Maybe no one can call themselves a D if you can’t vote for him?
NJ also came off RCP, and when Gallup +1 goes back on, will be +0.3 O.
A bunch fell off RCP including the NJ poll. When they add Gallup it will be Obama by +0.4.
CBS had not been kind lately(smells of Silver as they work with NYT)
Fox will have it a point either way.
TIPP- who knows.
The poll bringing Romney down now us the PEW poll.
In just 15 minutes, Mitt gained 0.1 in RCP now down 0.4. 48-.5 – 48.1
Is there an Obama job approval tracker number from gallup today?
By the general incumbant rule, 48 is “the number of death”
If your final poll is 48 or less (without a significant third party), and you are the incumbant, you lose.
-Polaris
RCP just put Gallup in their Average. Drops O to +0.4%
UNSKEWED hasn’t updated and still has Romney +4.2%
Who will be closer in the results, RCP or UNSKEWED?
I’ll still stick with RCP, but, with LOW confidence.
Be careful of the spin coming from the Dem propgandists tonight. They’ll be going fast enough to generate their own magnetic fields.
If Obama is at 48, he is gone as an incumbent.
Prominent Lehigh Valley Democrat blogger endorses His Mittness for POTUS!
http://lehighvalleyramblings.blogspot.com/2012/11/this-democrat-is-splitting-his-ticket.html
Considering how many polls are still outsanding today. Romney could get to + territory by the end of the day as older pro-Obama polls are pushed out.
Yes BF O is indeed making the charge back to Chicago tomorrow.
69 – hmm. In a matter of minutes, they dropped off the Fox tie, increasing the average by dropping down to 8 polls iso 9.
I see that RCP finally took out the trash.
Well we know the PEW poll is trashy as is the NBC poll….
-Polaris
Rotti-Did the Express-Times endorse Romney?
EML you are a very cautions person. Not a bad trait.
Express Times endorsed Obama and Casey.
Leip’s site sure is slow today. lol
I think Mitt has Mac 08 States + IN + NC + FL + VA + CO. He might also have NH & IA but that still keeps him from hitting 270. Ohio will be where election is won or lost
Per Ann Althouse…
Turnout poor for O in Madison today…
November 5, 2012
A disappointing turnout for the Obama rally in Madison, Wisconsin.
Personally, I’m at work, but Meade is on the scene, where he talked to a police officer who said they’d planned for 30,000 but were estimating the crowd at 15,000. And Meade encountered a friend who said he’d heard reports that it would be a nightmare trying to park downtown, but he pulled into a parking garage and was the first car there.
The police had cordoned off a big swath of lawn on the Capitol Square for the spillover crowd, Meade told me (by phone), but there is no spillover crowd.
82- Figures
Official prediction:
Mitt Romney is elected with 271 electoral votes with Wisconsin as the decisive state.
Ed Schultz disembowels Chris Matthews on live TV.
Did Althouse finally break for Mitt?
84- Don’t forget WI. The Republican ground game there is top notch.
@89 RB if WI flips I think OH does. if Wi flips and OH doesnt and Mitt wins 270+, ill laugh my ass off
Express Times endorsed Obama and Casey.
Damn. Both of its readers are lost to us.
Kerry drew 80K in 2004 in Madison…
Whoa….
so as a cautious pessimist I say O 271, R 267. if I get OH wrong, R is president.
Jul, you seem pretty optimistic???
Let this be over already. Hopefully we win but if we don’t I hope republicans are ready to stonewall this idiot at every turn.
A side note on EV.
In 2008 it was not GOTV that got Ds to the polls for early voting. Its was absolute passion. I saw folks standing in line for hours to cast votes for Obama. That’s not GOTV that’s folks wanting to send a message to the Rs or in many cases making history by voting for Obama.
In 2012 the Ds and their union minions had to resort to knock on the head and drag to the polls for early voting. Or calling to tell them to fill out mail in ballot or whatever. The passion on was the GOP side. Yes the GOP had GOTV but the passion was on our side. I might add in TX, IN, IL, TN and other states that not tossups we are seeing some very nice GOP leaning early vote numbers. That’s passion.
I am thinking we won the election day vote in 2008. with the passion on our side I am feeling it for 2012. Still thinking 2.2 or 3.2% for Romney. When does predictions cut off?
#93 I think you are wrong about Ohio. In fact the EV numbers alone tell me that Romney will win Ohio. The only quesiton in my mind is by exactly how much.
-Polaris
#96 I agree. Not much else to add.
-Polaris
The reason I don’t like the “Incumbant at 48 never wins” rule is that it is valid until it isn’t, as are all of these supposed “inviolable rules.” I’m a qualitative guy and I like the John in Ireland analysis as to why this is a 51-48 Romney win—it’s all about feel at this point. Who’s got the love and who’s desperate.
87…Would pay to see that!
My best case scenario is that Romney wins without Ohio. I would love that.
No more having to deal with all those worthless Buckeyes. They will have been put in their place.
If Rasmussen’s party id figures of +6 GOP in 2012 versus +8 DEM in 2008 is correct, and the polls showing Romney with double digit leads among independent voters is also correct, then the electoral terrain is such that I don’t see how Obama can fashion a route to victory.
And it probably means some surprises in the Senate races, too.
We’ll find out soon enough.
Darn too late to enter the contest. I will make my final predictions anyway, but sorry…I simply was and am not confortiable making it until I see enough polling data from today. I will make my prediction this PM before the first NH election day ballots are cast.
-Polaris
#99 There are very solid reasons why the incumbant rule holds. It even held in 2004 (Bush was above the danger line)
Enough said.
-Polaris
Dream on Bayern.
I might add in my own defense I am NOT just relying on the incumbant rule. The incumbant rule so far is confirming what I am seeing.
-Polaris
Ras Generic –
TIED 49-49, which is usually a good sign for Republicans.
If the electorate is R +6, that would constitute a THIRTEEN point swing between 2008 and 2012.
Have we ever seen such a large swing before?
Colour me skeptical
271-267 would *suck* as a final result!
108 – Gallup found a 15 point swing from 2008 to 2012.
Is the Rasmussen party ID among all adults or likely voters only?
The university of Colorado have a prediction that has tested true ever since 1980. All based on economic conditions in each state and number of unemployed. In the economic situation we are in, ooo, incumbent cannot overcome the economic distress of the electorate. Romney offers an alternative that is difficult and foolish to ignore. We also have to realize that most citizens who are depending on the government dole do not want to give that up for the greater good. That is why they “like” obama, if he cut them off, they would start “hating” him.
Prediction for Romney:
Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.
2008
Dixville Notch
Obama 15
McCain 6
Hart’s Location
Obama 17
McCain 10
Paul 2
#108 Me too actually. I am not expecting R+6 and I would be stunned if that was the real number…but Ras has consistantly got that number right so I don’t know….
I also point out that D+7 in 2008 was anomalous in many ways. It happened during a chaotic system that was still realing from the economic collapse following the Lehman Bros meltdown…and most of it was driven by GOP non-participation.
I still think such a swing is too much mind you, but I think you are overstating it.
-Polaris
Btw, for as grueling a schedule as Mitt has run lately, he really looks great. Not even all that tired. But juiced up. FWIW, NO WAY could Chris Christy EVER do this level of schedule and survive. It takes stamina. no risk of him ever being a national candidate.
#111 I think it’s RVs. Frank?
-Polaris
I would rather see the “tingler” perform seppuku on himself.
Of course, do we raffle off who gets to strike the final blow and sever his bulbous head.
I just got back from the Romney rally in Lynchburg Virginia. There was around 10,000 people there or so which if you know that general area is a really good crowd. It was great.
Believe it or not, RAS party ID polls always reflect “all adults”
Surprising, I know.
I wonder if Rush will sign off today with “We meet at dawn”…
like he sometimes does on election eve.
118. I have a sister who lives in Lynchburg. She called me from the rally . Sent me some pictures.
She said it was a really energetic crowd.
Romney 350.
How often do those two towns in NH predict the winner of NH?
Rasmussen:
Week of October 29 – November 4, 2012
7000 Likely Voters
Total/Men/Women/GOP/Dem/Indies
no leaners
49/55/45/89/12/51 Romney
47/42/52/10/86/38 Obama
with leaners
49/54/45/88/12/52 Romney
48/42/52/10/86/40 Obama
certain to vote
48/53/44/88/11/49 Romney
46/41/51/09/85/38 Obama
job approval
50/46/53/13/87/45 approve
49/53/47/86/12/55 disapprove
generic ballot
46/50/43/86/10/45 GOP
46/43/50/09/86/37 Dem
D+4/48.92%/47.32%
D+3/49.32%/46.84%
D+2/49.72%/46.36%
D+1/50.12%/45.88%
R+0/50.52%/45.40%
R+1/50.92%/44.92%
R+2/51.24%/44.84%
R+3/51.72%/43.96%
R+4/52.12%/43.48%
R+5/52.48%/43.20%
R+6/52.84%/42.92%
I would take anything from D+2 and below.
I would absolutely LOVE R+6 !!!!!!!
Frank
122
about half the time
party id R+6 ……. HUGE HUGE HUGE ….i’ve been saying it. why not believe it. he was right in 2004 , 2006, 2008 , and 2010. if rass is even off by 3 or so it will be R +2 or 3
this election is OVER — DONE.
tom
#123 Nice weekly numbers esp that Indy split.
-Polaris
124–in other words, worthless.
PID R+6
Keep praying, Susy!
America’s First Black Governor Refuses To Endorse Obama; Notes That Romney Has Passed The “Test” For President
Are the generic ballot numbers put through the same D+2 or 3 model as the head-to-head?
108 – 5.8% Average in October, I would assume it is about half of that tomorrow. Still, a great Romney – Ryan victory, and I stand by my prediction, this will not be that close. I said 52 – 47 before Sandy and the Christie aid and comfort to O, the Sandy bounce is receding, so maybe I’ll get it, or suffer watching it turnout (sorry, pun haters) to be 51 – 48).
#122…google your question and you will find the answer.
The only sure thing we know about OH is the early voting. It’s actual data that showed Romney is way ahead relative to 2008.
#131….I enjoy puns….men are much better punsters than women!
Dixville Notch went as follows:
1960 Nixon
1964 Goldwater
1968 HHH
1972 Nixon
1976 Ford
1980 Reagan
1984 Reagan
1988 Bush
1992 Bush
1996 Dole
2000 Bush
2004 Bush
2008 Obama
I got a pun in my pants susy
NotIced on Ras generic congressional ballot issued today is republican 46 democrats 43
Good news for congressional turnout
test
Woa–Mitt making one last trip to PA:
@AshleyRParker Breaking: Per pool report, Romney will head to Cleveland, OH and Pittsburgh, PA tomorrow.
Had tix to the Romney rally in fairfax this hour – could not get out of work though.
#130
yes
Polaris: There are two bits of polling conventional wisdom that apply to gallup and both are conforting.
1. The GOP candidate almost always overperforms his final Gallup number (or pretty much all polling….the only recent exceptions are 2008 and Neveda and I consider both special cases)
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Wait a moment. What about Ford in 1976? Dewey in 1948? In general Repubs overperform arguably, but did they here WRT Gallup’s final tally just out of the election?
The revenue those two towns get from early voting probably fills the community coffers for four years worth of snow plowing and leaf removal.
Raison d’etre.
Polaris,
… and those weekly numbers include Katrina #2 (oops, Sandy).
Frank
Oh-My-God. You guys are right. Just realized late tonight is Dixville Notch and Harpers Ferry.
Actually, Eric, its early tomorrow…. lol
#143 I said ALMOST always and I did mention two cases that came to the top of my mind where they didn’t.
In the case of Dewey Gallup cut corners that year and stopped polling early…and Gallup changed their methedology to avoid it in the future.
In the case of Ford, there was actually late movement to Ford but Ford was very much a special case as well.
-Polaris
VERY eager to hear Caddell’s thoughts today, so listen up and post for those of us who refuse to pay The Man for cable TV.
Kelley on Fox…discuss role on evangelicals (and Catholics) votes in election.
My take….when you vote God out…..He votes you out! The
Dems blew it…..big time.
#130: Generic ballot is just a question: who will you vote for congress: R or D. If you party ID is R plus and your generic ballot is even, it tells you the indies are left leaning.
150
Would nice if the effect could be quantified.
Rasmussen:
New Hampshire President
Total/Men/Women/GOP/Dem/Indies
no leaners
46/51/42/90/07/40 Romney
48/44/52/07/92/50 Obama
with leaners
48/55/42/92/07/43 Romney
50/44/55/07/92/54 Obama
job approval
50/47/52/12/91/49 approve
48/52/44/87/08/46 disapprove
party ID
32/28/40 R/D/I
Frank
God has a big surprise for you, Susy.
Or, if Obama wins, will that be Satan’s work?
Cory nobody here gives a damn what a Canadian has to say. discuss gang.
too D heavy in that Ras poll
Rasmussen:
New Hampshire Governor
no leaners
43/51/36/86/07/35 Lamontagne
48/43/53/10/90/50 Hassan
with leaners
45/53/38/87/07/39 Lamontagne
50/46/54/10/90/54 Hassan
Frank
I have been saying that I feel good about IA. Very good. Good about CO.
Need OH. I am all in on that and made the prediction based on anecdotal evidence and the word of posters here who are from the state.
Why won’t Ras use his own party ID number in his polls?
Guess that rumor of Romney doing an obama-style infomercial was not credible.
Polaris, true Ford seemed to break late for but fell short. Despite his personal likeability aspects he got tossed as an incumbent, even though he had been appointed in the Watergate swamp. But he was personally liked, IIRC…
#158 WHy? Because if Ras polled at R+6 he would be laughed out of the polling industry. PID advantage for the GOP has never been that high since before the Great Depression.
-Polaris
#157 That NH poll is not a total suprise. Sandy did help Obama in the NE according to the national polling I’ve read but it’s still MOE.
=Polaris
Suffock finds Romney ahead in 3 bellweather counties nationwide.
Lamontage epic collapse? You sure those numbers are right?
Gallup doesnt weight for party id…. so a one point R lead doesnt reveal a R heavy electorate, does it?
NT
Gang,
job approval and indy #s for Gallup?
I agree with Polaris on OH as well. Here is why:
1) Obama is underwhelming us by like 20% (?) in Cuyahoga county early voting. He’s gotta have better EV banking in Cleveland than he’s getting relative to 2008.
2) Recent polls showing near or close numbers in PA spill over into EASTERN OHIO if they are legit. The campaign moves with Bill Clinton and company seem to confirm this move which will aid demographics in eastern OH.
3) Dems underperform their numbers from their national counts by like 1.5-2% in OH. Obama did this EVEN in 2008, up 5% there when up nationally 7%.
4) Reps OVERPERFORM there a bit typically.
5) Reps are UP from their EV totals from 2008 which helps ease the gap.
6) An incumbent Dem in a slightly GOP leaning state sitting under 50% there just out of an election is not good.
7) Recent moves to Romney to show ties or nearly so are Romney wins at least narrowly, once indies (likely won by Romney by more than 1-2 points) and late deciders (2-1 or 3-1 Romney likely)will tip it to Mittens.
Polaris, agree?
Long but worth it:
11/5/2012
Mitt Romney has a path to 270 electoral votes, but no room for error, according to Suffolk University’s analysis of bellwether areas in the key swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire.
Romney held leads in Lake County, Ohio and in the towns of Epping and Milford, New Hampshire. The states of Ohio and New Hampshire are key to Romney’s path to victory, and a must hold for President Barack Obama to stave him off.
A bellwether is an area of a state that closely mirrors a statewide electoral outcome using similar election types from previous elections and other data. Suffolk University’s bellwether model has been used since 2002 and is 95 percent accurate in predicting outcomes but is not designed to predict margin of victory. All bellwether analyses carry a margin of error similar to a statewide poll.
Ohio
In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.
“What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote.”
Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in Ohio and percentage of votes received statewide and the comparative vote of Lake County:
1996 – Clinton
Statewide: 47 percent
Lake County: 44 percent
2000 – Bush
Statewide: 50 percent
Lake County: 50 percent
2004 – Bush
Statewide: 51 percent
Lake County: 51 percent
2008 – Obama
Statewide: 52 percent
Lake County: 50 percent
New Hampshire
Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.
Below is a comparison of which presidential candidate won in New Hampshire statewide and the comparative votes of Epping and Milford:
1996 – Clinton
Statewide: 50 percent
Epping: 50 percent
Milford: 48 percent
2000 – Bush
Statewide: 49 percent
Epping: 48 percent
Milford: 50 percent
2004 – Bush
Statewide: 50 percent
Epping: 50 percent
Milford: 51 percent
2008 – Obama
Statewide: 54 percent
Epping: 53 percent
Milford: 52 percent
In both Suffolk University statewide polls taken over a week ago, both Ohio and New Hampshire were found to be deadlocked at 47 percent to 47 percent for both the Democratic and Republican nominees.
U.S. Senate race in Massachusetts
In the Massachusetts race for U.S. Senate, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren led Republican Scott Brown in two bellwether areas, the city of Waltham (50 percent to 47 percent) and the city of Gloucester (53 percent to 45 percent). In the last three presidential elections, these two areas had all three U.S. Senate outcomes correct and were close to the statewide vote as well.
Below is a comparison of which U.S. Senate candidate won in Massachusetts statewide and the comparative votes for Waltham and Gloucester:
1996 – Kerry
Statewide: 51 percent
Waltham: 53 percent
Gloucester: 51 percent
2000 – Kennedy
Statewide: 69 percent
Waltham: 69 percent
Gloucester: 71 percent
2004 – No Senate race
2008 – Kerry
Statewide: 64 percent
Waltham: 66 percent
Gloucester: 64 percent
Since 1996, no Republican candidate has won a U.S. Senate seat during a presidential election year in Massachusetts, although Republican Governor Bill Weld came close in 1996, losing to incumbent Democrat John Kerry 51 percent to 44 percent.
Methodology
The IDs of 300 likely voters for each bellwether were conducted November 1-4 using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5.65 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Bellwether marginals are available on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310.
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I should add the early sign in OH for Romney aside from suburb dominance, is how he fares on election night in Hamilton county. If he flips it, won by O in 2008, which was won by Bush in 2004, Romney wins. I think we will see that before OH is called where it’s heading…
Religious voters … evangelicals & catholics … will make the difference in the key battleground states: OH, FL, CO and VA
Will put R over the top.