Never A Break – 2016 Polls Are Coming Soon

Get ready.

Well…we need something to talk about for the next three months….

Any predictions on who is going to be leading on either side?

Posted by Dave at 4:55 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (396)

396 Responses to “Never A Break – 2016 Polls Are Coming Soon”

  1. BayernFan says:


  2. BayernFan says:

    Give the Dems what they want and make it clear that it is what DEMS want.

    Then sit back and watch.

    Elections have consequences.

  3. Brandon says:

    Christie 2016!

    Yeah, I don’t care what everyone else thinks.

  4. Emerica says:

    I think Rand Paul can win Iowa and New Hampshire.

    NC idk, and florida is the retirement-villa so they probably want someone more like Huckster there.

  5. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Couldn’t even wait 24 hours before selling us out:


  6. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    I will NEVER EVER support Christie

  7. Michael says:

    Gov. MARTINEZ!!!

  8. Robbie says:

    Rand Paul will have the same success his Father had in primaries. That is to say none.

  9. Diogenes says:

    Rubio. Hopefully Scott steps down and Rubio runs for governor. He will need the executive experience.

  10. Cory says:

    Obama has a hammer this time in budget negotiations: All Bush tax cuts are set to expire, and Obama won’t be up for election again. He can make a real threat of allowing everyone’s rates to go up, to force a deal that he likes.

  11. Bitterlaw says:

    0-100 will never stoop. He is the infected tooth of HHR.

  12. Corey says:

    Sigh, far too early to really focus on 2016.

    We need to see what can be done in 2013 and 2014 first. This will be and should be a very long audition process for all Republican leaders.

    Obviously, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio are promising national figures.

    I will also pay close attention to the reelection efforts of John Kasich and Susanna Martinez.

  13. zorkpolitics says:

    The GOP should move its primaries and convention to 2015, get all teh divisive fighting over a year before the election when no one is really listenting. Then spend 6 months and $300 million building a huge ground game in all the swing states with microtargeting to register hoards of new republicans to counter the Democratic ground game,
    Then spend $300 million trashing whoever is the Democrartic nominee from March until July. Then run a positive national campaign from August to November.

  14. BobbyJindal2016 says:


    Yeah, he can threaten to start his second term with a massive recession caused by his own actions


  15. Bitterlaw says:

    Rubio/Ayotte vs. Cuomo/Sen. Warren.

  16. Emerica says:

    That’s true.

    I don’t understand why they would participate in these debt ceiling negotiations though. Obama was over the debt ceiling for months, and he was pretending like that law was being broken.

    Point is he’s going to break the rule anyways so why bother.

  17. terry says:

    Most surprising lost last night was Bono Mack and Nan Hayworth

  18. Corey says:

    For personal reasons, I am trying to get a handle on what the Jewish vote was yesterday. According to the one exit poll, that everybody has been examining, Obama’s support dropped 9 percent, which is about three times greater than his overall drop, but there may be other exit poll studies released on the Jewish vote still.

  19. BobbyJindal2016 says:



    People want free shiit

    Let the economy be annihilated by the actions of the Democratic Party

    Show people the reality of what happens when they vote for Democrats

    Gun the economy off the cliff

  20. terry says:

    Supposedly the Speaker offered an olive branch on the fiscal cliff today.

    Boehner wants down payment on fiscal cliff compromise.

    Nan Hayworth

  21. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Terry see my #5 above

  22. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Boehner should be renamed Speaker Fluffy Bunny

  23. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    A Communist Speaker would just gun the economy over the cliff and blame it on Obama we have no guts

  24. RB says:


    DEMS:Clinton, O’Malley, Cuomo

  25. terry says:

    I wouldn’t say Boehner is selling out. It’s about PR. Obama won and Boehner is telling him the ball is in his court and he’s open to compromise.

    I think he played the opening of the fiscal cliff battle well.

  26. lisab says:

    elizabeth warren … “we are going to fight for a level playing field and put people back to work.”

    sooooooooo … who exactly are going to be leveled?

  27. lisab says:

    Warren Says, “She Has No Problem With Someone Paying Half Their Income To The Government”

  28. Diogenes says:

    I disagree with Corey’s analysis of the popular vote in the previous thread. We only won the popular vote in 2004 and we all know that was a freak election about 9/11 and evangelicals never to be repeated again. The demographic shifts favored the dems now.

    McCain and Romney would’ve won landslides had they been running during the 80’s and 90’s due to the composition of the electorate. California was really a predictor of what the rest of the country would become demographically. The GOP can double down on divisive conservatism (Ban affirmative action, don’t let illegals drive) and be a minority party like they are in California or they can do what the Bush’s tried to do and give up immigration as an issue.

  29. Corey says:

    Once again, I seriously think it is too early to worry about 2016, but if John Kasich continues his upward political trend in Ohio, gets reelected, and has a strong record of reform and achievement as a chief executive of a crucial state, his stock should be very high, and would be much like a 1999 George W. Bush in appeal for an open election.

    We certainly have a strong bench, including many of the names mentioned, for either #1 or #2 one day.

  30. Emerica says:

    There is no “fiscal cliff”

    Obama will ignore the debt ceiling if he doesn’t get his way. He’s already done it once.

  31. Bitterlaw says:

    28 – Good for her. Tell her to fire her accountant and pay above her tax rate to go over 50%

  32. lisab says:


    she said someone

    not herself

  33. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Probably true, Acroso

  34. Emerica says:

    Don’t worry folks. Speaker Fluffy Bunny is in charge of the negotiations

  35. Know Nothing Party says:

    Phil/IP 2016!

  36. Diogenes says:

    Kasich will not win. He worked for frigging Lehman brothers for Christ sake. We need someone that connects.

    By my calculations, if Hinduism is at all true, Reagan’s reincarnation is now 8 years old giving us 32 years to wait until he springs into politics again.

    Come on Gipper!

  37. terry says:

    With the election out of the way now we get the see the real unemployment numbers later this month.

    Who’s predicting a sudden projection upwards pass 8%?

  38. Bitterlaw says:

    31 and 34 – Agreeing with 0-100 is never good. never.

  39. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Problem is insoluble

    “Reaching out” to minorities makes them move even further left and increase demands that we “reach out” even further and so on

    Not reaching out leads to minority block voting and yesterday’s results

    The whole country will become Detroit

    It’s over

    It’s only a question of time

  40. Corey says:

    29., I think Republicans need to come to terms with reality on many aspects of the immigration issue, and I have said that for years, but I still think the Democrats have won twice now because of Barack Obama, the persona, and perceived legend, more than any significant or permanent ideological shift to the left.

    Midterms and general elections are certainly different, but 2010 would not have happened, and Republicans would not have still held the House, with only relatively small losses this year, if this was only about ideology or demographics.

    If Democrats do not nominate a candidate that people do not feel a profound emotional connection to, they do not win the White House.

    I don’t know who they might have in 2016 that could ever have that kind of psychological and sociological devotion with people as Bill Clinton and Obama did, including Hillary.

    2012 was too soon for enough people to not still consider Obama “change.” The way things work though, with him unable to run again, by 2016 people are probably really going to be looking for change.

  41. Bitterlaw says:

    I think the UE report will soar so Obama can use it to beg the GOP to “help the country by passing …..”

  42. lisab says:

    “happy days are here again

    my food stamps and cell phone are free again

    the skies above are clear again

    happy days are here again”

  43. Tina says:

    Sell out Boehner and the Republicrats.

  44. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    it’s over

    Take care of yourself and your family protect your assets

    Navigate the coming collapse as best you can

    America’s future?

  45. Corey says:

    Just saying that Kasich has won once in Ohio and may very well win again. We all ought to hope so. He was not born rich (which is apparently a deal killer in this era) and does not come across as a typical politician.

    Far too early to even think about committing to anyone, but a Governor, is always going to start off with the strongest possible political narrative.

  46. Bitterlaw says:

    Tina is like Glen CLose in Fatal Attraction. Just when you think she’s gone…she comes out of the bathtub.

    Stop leaving. Just stay.

  47. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    E Pluribus Unum?

    Fuuck that

    Our new national slogan:

    “Where my free shiit at, motherfuucker?”

  48. Ron Burgundy says:

    #19 and 40. Agreed. Ditto.

  49. Emerica says:

    It’s impossible to keep a permanent majority in politics even if the demographics favor the dems slightly. Your part stays in power for 8 years or 12 at most, and the country get agitated for change no matter what.

    That’s why this whole outreach, immigration and negotiating with Obama thing is scam.

    Only reason to do it all would be to keep the media happy in a superficial way so they don’t complain as much.

  50. BobbyJindal2016 says:



  51. terry says:

    Did anyone catch this?

    The “youth” vote doubled down for Obama in 2012 actually increasing its share of the vote from 18% to 19%.

    Obama easily won the youth vote nationally, 67 percent to 30 percent, with young voters proving the decisive difference in Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to an analysis by the Center for Research and Information on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University.

    I guess they love being unemployed, under-employed or living with their parents at 25 still.

  52. Stef says:

    Reposting didn’t see the new thread:

    Puerto Rico.

    The Democrats are certainly going to push for statehood and Republicans can pick their poison by letting in an almost completely hispanic state about the size of Iowa (1.5 mil votes this cycle) or they can further alienate the fastest growing part of the electorate.

    Rubio would seem to be the natural front runner in 2016. But will he even run with his Senate seat up that year? Does the answer to that partly depend on whether Rick Scott wins in 2014? I’m clueless about these sorts of things.

    I think Diogenes has an interesting idea for Rubio to run for FL Gov in 2014 then POTUS in 2016.

  53. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Acroso 50

    I used to think that, but I think I’ve changed my mind after tonight

  54. Tina says:

    Bl, the site keeps me coming back, it is addicting.

  55. Corey says:

    Logically, it would be too difficult for Rubio to run for Governor, just to immediately turn around and run for President. Scott is already seeking reelection anyway.

    Running for President is a two year process. If he does want to run in 2016, and has proven himself as a top contender by the time the primaries begin to roll around, he would probably need to say goodbye to any reelection effort.

  56. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Yeah lets bring in PR as a state

    2 more Communist senators and 4 more unwinnable electoral votes

    Sounds like a plan to me

  57. Diogenes says:

    Puekrto rico is a mixed bag. The current governor is a gop moderate and examole of the type of leaders republicans should aspire to be in this day and age.

  58. Stef says:

    Two Mostly Trivial Predictions:

    (1) A single faithless Romney elector will cast his EV for Ron Paul.

    (2) Ron Paul will receive more media coverage in the ensuing 72 hours than he has gotten in the last 5 years combined.

  59. Corey says:

    I wish there were more positive, optimistic, long-term thinking people around. I’m basically hanging by a thread to my sanity, and I feel like I’m one of the only optimistic people around here.

    As conservatives, we are supposed to believe in resilience, hard work and lifting ourselves up by our bootstraps. If we want those traits to be reinvigorated within the country, we ought to practice what we preach and start dusting ourselves off and stop talking fatalistic.

  60. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Corey, I agree with you on the Obama – Reagan – Clinton connection. Very magnetic figures, regardless of one feels about them politically.

    I was hooted and laughed mercilessly on this site 4 years ago when I compared Obama and Reagan.

    I said then and I continued to say even during Obama’s $#$#-ups, that, like Reagan, Obama is generally well-liked by the broad middle and that he can survive those #$$$-ups because of that likeability factor.

    I am NOT comparing their policies and achievements. I am NOT saying that Obama is another Reagan

  61. Phil says:

    Give Obama everything he wants.

    I don’t give a shiit anymore.

  62. Emerica says:


    I thought Obama would win this election for 4 years. Idea that Romney might win never really crossed my mind.

  63. Todd King says:

    2016 Nominees
    Republican: Chris Christie
    Democratic: Hillary Clinton
    The most epic political theater ever. I’d pay to see this contest.

  64. Apologetic California says:

    Democrats have an easier time adjusting.

    The Republicans are simply spent.

  65. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    The country is DONE, Corey

    It had nothing to do with Obama

    He isn’t even particularly likeable at all

    The bottom line is that people want free shiit that’s all and couldn’t care less about the damage it causes

  66. Brandon says:

    2008: John McCain can never be the GOP Nominee

    2012: Mitt Romney can never be the GOP Nominee

    2016: Hmmm…..

  67. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    My cat will be the nominee before that FatTraitorMotherfuucker will be the nominee

  68. Diogenes says:

    If young people voted I think it was because of the deadender senate candidates. A lot of people I met can’t shut up about it.

  69. Phil says:

    Hard work?

    I believe that’s pretty much gone.

    Where’s my free shiit, MF is indeed the new America.

  70. Corey says:

    I remember the day after 2004. Democrats were freaking out just as bad, if not worse. They didn’t have the House or as many Governors as we do, etc, and they really thought they were going to win the White House.

    Two years later, they had a very good midterm, and we can assume we can have the same,if we focus on it and not wallow in what cannot be undone now.

  71. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Christie will be dead in four years anyway he must weigh 410 pounds

    He probably has an Agatston score of 1000

  72. WillBest says:

    @10 I am actually in favor of full expiration of the Obama tax cuts. The result would be to bring millions of people back into paying federal income tax which is better for the country even if it means I pay a bit more.

  73. terry says:

    The talk of 2016 is silly. But the Democrats now have to be considered the favorites going into any national election since the path for a Republican to get to 270 will only get much much more difficult with states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas becoming swing states.

    Last night changed a lot of things. The truth is a Republican will only win a national race under extreme circumstances and even that may not be a sure thing.

    The takers now outnumber us and the ranks will only grow in the years to come, the sooner we all realize it the better.

  74. Phil says:

    Yes, let all taxcuts expire. It’s what Barry wants anyway and most Democrats if they were honest. Let the government get your paycheck and dole it out.

  75. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    You’re kidding yourself Corey

    This election was unloseable by traditional metrics

    Its why Barone, Morris and I (of course I’m not calling myself a political pundit) and others were so insistent that Mitt would win

    Under the politics and mores of the 60’s 70’s and 80’s no one could possibly have won with Obama’s numbers

    But things have changed

    No one cares about country anymore

    America is:

    Where My Free Shiit At You Motherfuucker?

    George Washington would be so proud of us now

  76. Emerica says:

    I like Fairmodel concept of number of years in power.

    Bush+Reagan= 12 years

    Clinton =8



    In modern politics it’s really hard to defeat a president going into only his second term.

    It’s just the way it is because his same old coalition hasn’t frayed apart yet.

  77. Phil says:

    Unless something really catastrophic happens to the country, there won’t be another Republican in the WH in our lifetime.

    We’ve had 8% unemployment for four yrs and the only other states Obama lost were Indiana and NC (barely).

    In 2016 there will be 2% less of the white vote and in 2020, 2 or 3 less, and in 2024 three percent less…….

    Get the picture?

  78. Scott says:

    The New England States have ZERO members of the GOP in their Congressional delegations.Amazing and this has ZERO to do with race or ethnicity.Can someone explain this?

  79. Emerica says:

    2012 looked a lot like Bush winning in 2004.

    Both eaked out a win.

    Nothing has changed.

  80. Emerica says:


    The white vote will be more polarized in 2016 though. It’s the same trend since the 70’s.

  81. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    The only thing that can change this Phil is an economic collapse

    People need to see the consequences of electing a Marxist Leninist Communist who hates free market entrepreneurial capitalism to the Presidency

    Let it all collapse

    MAYBE people will wake up

    Maybe not…

  82. Apologetic California says:

    John Huntsman is your 2016 frontrunner.

  83. Apologetic California says:

    I’m starting to take Emerica seriously. Folks, that’s how despondent I am!

  84. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Thats what puzzles me Acroso

    The white vote has polarized in the southern states but not in states like DV or OD (OhHowDumb – the state formerly known as Ohio) MN WI etc

    Why are bluestate males so goddamned stupid???

  85. DV Spokesman says:

    Because our voters aren’t racist.

  86. Emerica says:


    idk maybe they remember Bush.

  87. terry says:

    The New England States have ZERO members of the GOP in their Congressional delegations.Amazing and this has ZERO to do with race or ethnicity.Can someone explain this?

    Comment by Scott — November 7, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

    No it’s more of a cultural and economic thing in the heavily blue collar white states.

  88. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Racism explains voting for Republicans


    The quintessential bluestate dumbfuqq argument from Bitterlaw

    Proving my point

  89. Todd King says:

    I think we’ll have a Republican president in 2016. The party will reinvent itself and find ways to appeal to constituencies, like Latinos and women, in which it is currently under-performing. My suggestion that Christie would be the nominee is only wishful thinking. I realize how much animosity he has stirred up among the base.

  90. Corey says:

    Not in the House delegation (which was also the case before 2010) but there are still two Republican U.S. Senators in New England.

    Apparently, NH down the ballot goes heavy for whichever party is winning nationally. If we can have as good of a 2014 as we should, we will probably get 2 House seats back again.

  91. terry says:

    More likely to be unionized, cultural and economic tradition. Which is why in one instant they can elect Ron Johnson and another elect Tammy Baldwin.

  92. Emerica says:

    The issue of expanding visas for highly-skilled immigrants has faced opposition from both parties. The STEM Jobs Act, which would have granted more visas to immigrants with math and science degrees, was widely supported by the tech community. But it failed to pass this year in part because Democrats demanded more comprehensive immigration reform.

    Dems could have already passed immigration if they wanted to, but they don’t.

    They want to reward their base and play politics.

  93. John McCain says:

    The base “hated” me too.

  94. Mitt Romney says:

    Don’t forget me too John!

  95. Todd King says:

    Also the GOP should not give up on gaining a greater portion of the African-American vote. This might sound like a stretch, but there are plenty of reasonable, moderate blacks out there. (Kind of hard though with an African-American democratic candidate.) The GOP needs to rethink its positions on issues that matter to these moderates, and maybe come up with a way to outflank the democrats on these issues. If this sounds impossible, think of the years before Roosevelt when almost all blacks voted Republican. Blacks are too big of a portion of the electorate to simply concede their votes to democrats.

  96. Corey says:

    Christie would never be a strong national candidate under any circumstance.

    But as much as I think there is logical anger towards him, because as political junkies, we realize that he seemed to be just deliberately trying to take care of himself politically in the last couple of weeks, I still want Republicans to win elections everywhere in America, and that means I hope Christie gets reelected next year. I know he is “dead” to many of you, but maybe with some time, that will pass.

    The reasons we are so upset at him, as justified as it feels to us, can never be sold to the American people though as justified. He has no national future though.

  97. Phil says:

    Republicans won Illinois in 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988…….we don’t even bother to campaign there any longer and haven’t since the early 90s.

    Republicans won California in 1968, 1972, 1976, 1980, , 1984, 1988…..we don’t even bother to campaign there any longer and haven’t since the early 90s

    Republicans won Michigan in 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988…..we don’t even bother to campaign there any longer and haven’t since the early 1980s

    We haven’t come close to being competitive in Pennsylvania since we last carried it in 1988.

    Because of demographics, Colorado and Nevada either are, or soon will be, off the board.

    Let Obama and the Marxists have everything they want. They’re going to eventually get it anyway, and there isn’t a thing those of us in “flyover country” will be able to do about it.

  98. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Scott says:”The New England States have ZERO members of the GOP in their Congressional delegations.Amazing and this has ZERO to do with race or ethnicity.Can someone explain this?”

    New England was the “base” of the Moderate wing of the GOP (including Bush Sr.’s father Prescott).

    The Moderate Wing of the GOP doesn’t exist.

    End of explanation.

  99. terry says:

    It might seem bleak but this election told us everything we feared was happening in our country. The long decline which started in 1992, stalled by the 1994 election and 9-11 have come to full circle.

    America is no longer the country it once was.

  100. Corey says:

    Republicans are not going to come close to getting a ton of African-American votes in 2016,but with Obama off the ballot, we can at least try to double it, and get as many as 10 percent in the next election.

    We obviously need to do much better among Hispanics. There is a reason why George W. Bush was twice elected.

  101. Corey says:

    Republican Presidential candidates were actively campaigning in Illinois post Labor Day as recently as 2000.

  102. david d says:

    After observing the last few election cycles and what happened in this one – it is painfully obvious the Repbulican party has an identity problem. As mentioned by someone here last night the number of Republicans (or those choosing to identify themselves that way) has vastly decreased…that is why the poll numbers were hard to read and why many here were predicting D+2 to R+1 for the electorate…Republicans were hiding in the “idees” category… The left wing, hollywood, MSM, radical wing of the dems have succeeded in painting the Republicans (falsely, of course) as the party of the rich big corporations and wealthy people. So much have they succeeded that I think the brand, “Republican” may need to go away.
    I propose the “Conservative Party” – yes maybe it is time..RHINOS need to leave and a coalition of Tea Party/Social Conservatives fill this “new” Repbulican party…and highlight minority conservatives like Rubio and Martinez – we must go after the Hispanic vote like never before. The white electorate is decreasing rapidly – this election showed us that. The “Republican” brand will not attract them. We have to do out of our way to work with them (and yes, that means doing some sort of reasonable pathway to citizenship that can be worked out)…otherwise we will never be able to govern again. Marco Rubio seems to me to be the one who may lead us into this new era. We also better “vet” the candidates for a very long time so no uncovered film saying “the 47%er’s” rears it’s ugly head to a media viciously salivating to cram it into the public’s mind.

  103. Emerica says:


    Ginsburg is preparing to retire last I heard.

    Not to burst anyone’s bubble, but it’s in the pipeline possibly.

  104. Phil says:

    We are now the United States of California.

    Economic collapse is coming anyway with the now and future Democratic dominance of power. Step aside and let them own it.

  105. Todd King says:

    Republicans might not get half the black vote in the near future, but even getting 25% of this vote could make a huge difference in electoral outcomes, in places like Michigan, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with large black populations.

  106. Corey says:

    Am I going to have to give this site up because the vast majority of you feel so defeated?

    I wish there was a place I could go to online to be with like-minded people and feel better about stuff, but it doesn’t look like I am going to find that here, today at least.

    Guess I need a new hobby. I’ll probably take a look at the comments tomorrow though and maybe it will be less fatalistic.

  107. RB says:

    I wouldn’t assume in 2020 and 2024 that when the whites are at 65-69% that the GOP can not win. At some point there will be a need for change and that is whem a realignment will inevitibly happen. I think in the future the Jewish and Hispanic voters could start to shift over. I thought that I read somewhere that 2nd and 3rd genreation Latinos are much more open to voting Republican. I can also see 2nd and 3rd generation Asian voters filling in the Republican party. It will take some time, but some of these groups will fill the void left by the decreasing white voters.

  108. Brandon says:

    I’m pumped about 2016. No fatalism here.

  109. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Just facing reality Corey

    We will become Detroit

    Look at your own state of Illinois what do you see?

    HONESTLY, what do you see?

    A failed state in financial ruins in the early stages of Detroitification…

  110. Scott says:

    In the 1990’s, Clinton opened up the floodgates toward granting Latinos citizenship because he felt he needed their votes for re-election in 1996. The rest is history.
    Bush43 and McCain were never rewarded by Latinos for their gallant efforts in trying to get Immigration Reform passed.
    Latinos had the choice between becoming part of the victim group of moochers or to go mainstream like the Irish,Italians etc did in the early 20th Century.Unfortunately,most have chosen victimhood.

  111. Phil says:

    Sorry Corey, Bush lost Illinois 54-42 in 2000.

    It’s gone gone. Just like California, Michigan, Pa, Connecticut, Washington, Oregon…..

    Colorado and Nevada are going, going going….

    Soon, say bye bye to Virginia….

    I think you get the picture.

  112. Corey says:

    We need to win more votes from all sorts of people, including those of every race and every religion.

    It’s hard work to win elections, but that’s what it takes. Talking about how much people suck or the country sucks (or how we should spit in the face of every Democrat as Dondero suggests) or how we should just give up is never going to be a good way to appeal to voters.

    Take a breath and regroup. It’s the American thing to do. Later.

  113. Apologetic California says:

    The lack of outreach and targeting of blacks by the GOP is bothersome. It just really cements that the party doesn’t give a damn.

  114. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Bluestate dumbfuqqs need to feel the consequences of their dumbfuqqery

    Economic collapse now!

    Off the fiscal cliff!!


  115. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    We will never get blacks


    The most prominent black Republican in New Orleans told me to my face, “Forget about my people they’ll never listen”

    Look at the people in Detroit

    Still electing Democrats

    You want to try to persuade people who do that?

  116. jason says:

    Things are what they are. More people believe in big government than free enterprise. I am not a defeatist, I still believe in capitalism. But I am now a minority. I would love to find a candidate that can win in 2016. My choice was Christie, but now everyone on our side except me and Ann Coulter hate him. Maybe Rubio, he would need somebody with real gravitas as a VP, somewhat like Obama/Biden (don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Biden has gravitas, but that was the rationale).

    I am against amnesty, but it might not be a bad strategy to get some kind of immigration reform on our terms that takes the issue out of 2016 and gives us a chance to appeal to Hispanics on other issues.

  117. Phil says:

    Let’s offer the blacks reparations. It’s the only way to out bid the free shiit the Democrats give them. It’s about the only thing left to offer them that the Democrats haven’t provided for them.

    Is that outreach enough for you?

  118. GF says:

    Brief post just to say hello.

    Lost my Congressman (Bilbray) and now have that hack Filner for Mayor. Sales taxes are going up (Prop. 30), but at least CA kept the Death Penalty, for what little that is worth, and killed that silly food labelling scheme.

    Wes, sorry I missed you earlier. I enjoyed our discussions. I’d like to communicate offline as we did before; ask DaveW for my email.

    MD, if you are lurking, I read from Bitter that you are taking a break. Enjoy it, but don’t stay away too long.

    Also, Walt, is was a pleasure having a classy guy like you here. So sorry about your loss, but be pleased that we are growing as a serious party at your state level, too. There may still be a future for you in politics if you desire it. At any rate, your community is better off for having elected you to begin with.

  119. Todd King says:

    Exactly Apologetic Californian. GOP leaders should be meeting with the black leadership, showing up at NAACP conferences, and just listening, showing respect, and figuring out what is important to these constituencies. Perhaps it could be possible to craft an agenda that appeals to portions of the black electorate, if only the GOP would stop and take a serious listen.

  120. Stef says:

    I’m reading now that Puerto Rico’s vote actually failed because half a million people voted “blank” by protest which leaves the “pro-statehood” vote with only a plurality whereas a proper majority is needed.

  121. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Amnesty=Texas blue forever=America becoming Venezuela

  122. jason says:

    Blacks are 12% of the electorate. They were never Republican and we could win elections. I think Hispanics are more important.

  123. lisab says:

    breaking: christie just switched parties …

  124. Emerica says:

    I am against amnesty, but it might not be a bad strategy to get some kind of immigration reform on our terms that takes the issue out of 2016 and gives us a chance to appeal to Hispanics on other issues.

    Dumbest strategy ever.

    Thank God we stopped McCain (several times including his presidential run)

    Now McCain seems pissed off at the Democrats so he seems like he doesn’t care to bother anymore.

  125. Howard Dean says:

    We’ll be north of $20 trillion in debt by 16.

    Then we’ll really get em!


  126. BobbyJindal2016 says:


    He became a Republican?

  127. Phil says:

    I’m with Bobby.

    Economic collapse, the sooner the better. It’s coming anyway with Democratic spend and tax policies. Let the Democrats own it.

    Step aside and let it happen.

  128. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Phil – you should also add New Mexico to that list. Remember, in 2000, it was just about as close as Florida. It used to be a swing state, last night it was a 10% margin. New Hampshire is pretty close to going as well – heck, Romney called it one of his home states. Romney lost all 4 of his “home” states – MI, NH, MA and CA (where his new home is being built).

  129. Todd King says:

    #120 you are just assuming, without any evidence, that all blacks want is more handouts from the government. This is exactly the kind of assumption that alienates blacks, almost universally, from the GOP. It is conceding defeat, based on an overly broad generalization, before even trying to reach to this constituency.

    While this might be true of some blacks, there may be others who have a very different agenda than just expanding welfare. William Julius Wilson, a prominent black sociologist, was one of the chief architects of the Clinton-era welfare reform…hardly an advocate for expanded benefits. It doesn’t cost anything to just listen and see if there is any substantial common ground.

  130. Diogenes says:

    We lost certain states because you only need a slight majority to win elections. We have senators from michigan, illinois, and pennsylvania sitting as we speak.. We have also won the majority of house delegations at least recently.

    If bush werent such a bad speaker and campaigner he wouldve won the popular vote and some extra states in 2000 and a larger amount of the ec and pv in 2004.

    Politics is not just about ideaology its also about personalities. Obama has the mojo at the moment.

    A more populist candidate that could have run on the economy and obamacare while not alienating hispanics and women would have beaten obama by 5 points I bet. Our candidates this year were just bad.

    Still, the 2 deadenders would’ce opened their mouths and probably cost us this election anywyas.

    If polaris or rdelbov is around can we please find out why romney had fewer voters than McCain?

  131. jason says:

    Right. But amnesty on our terms is better than open borders. Obama knows open borders will not pass an R congress.

    But if the R congress proposes immigration reform Hispanics might pressure the Democrats to accept.

    Secure the borders FIRST. No citizenship, work permits. Dream Act on a merit and quota system, you have to earn it (none of this BS of enrolling in a $49 community college course).

    This would take immigration off the table for 2016. Yes, it would mean more Democrats in a more distant future, but let’s face it we need to win in 2016 or SCOTUS is going to be liberal for 20 years.

  132. Apologetic California says:

    The GOP did astoundingly little to reach out to the groups most hurt under Obama. I know it doesn’t make sense to y’all, but I remember quiet clearly the time when GOP candidates actually campaign in minority neighborhoods.

  133. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    There’s some common ground Todd

    Here’s what’ll happen

    You’ll give and give and give

    Then they’ll call you a racist motherfuucker and still vote Democrat

    Absolutely utterly completely hopeless

  134. Todd King says:

    Blacks are much more than 12% of the electorate in many crucial swing states. They are less than 12% in places that are firmly Republican like Nebraska. Lemme gather some statistics on the racial composition of populations by state.

  135. jason says:

    ” you are just assuming, without any evidence, that all blacks want is more handouts from the government.”

    Hello??? No evidence???????

    Black unemployment is 15%. Blacks should reject Democrats more than any other group. They don’t because they view Democrats as the party of entitlements.

    Free Obama phones?

    Let’s get real here.

  136. Todd King says:

    #137 it’s through ungrounded over-generalizations like that, which lump all blacks into one narrow, common framework, that the GOP loses virtually all of the black vote, and loses elections. The black population of this country is more diverse, in terms of beliefs and politics, than you might realize.

  137. BobbyJindal2016 says:


    I’m touched

    Maybe Obama let him swallow!!!

  138. Phil says:

    Blacks don’t give a damn about William Julius Wilson.

    They are victims and if a Condi Rice or Hermann Cain don’t buy into that victimhood, they are labeled “Uncle Toms”.

  139. Apologetic California says:

    Compherensive immigration to me has to nationalize Arizona’s SB 1070, then I’ll give blanket amnesty.

  140. Emerica says:

    OK…..if they do immigration reform, they should do this.

    Everything should be stand alone bills (like 1-2 page one topic bills)

    No giant comprehensive bills. DREAM act already failed as a stand along, but they could try again, of since they are getting rid of the filibuster, I say they just don’t do any of it.

  141. BobbyJindal2016 says:


    I live in New Orleans I understand the black community very intimately

    They talk a good game but at the end of the day they vote Democratic


    End of story

    Total complete absolute utter waste of time

  142. Todd King says:

    Right #140. 15% unemployment among blacks. That means 85% employment. Lots of small business owners, aspiring professionals, and others who are looking for socio- economic success, not a handout. Maybe the 15% that is unemployed is a lost cause, because they just want more entitlements. But not the other 85%. Give the democrats the 15%, and take 1/3 of that 85%, and this election would have looked a lot different.

  143. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    What state are you in Todd?

    You’re a bluestate dumbfuqq living in a lilly white area, right?

  144. jason says:

    138. You are wrong. The state with the highest population of blacks is Mississippi, strongly Republican. In fact the southern states in general have the highest proportion of AAs.

    Pennsylvania, OH, Wisconsin, NH, MN are very white, all below the national average. Colorado is 4.3% black. Iowa 3.1%.

    New Hampshire: 1.3%. Wisconsin 6.5%.

  145. jason says:

    147. BS. The other 85% are not entrepreneurs. A big portion are underemployed, or working for the government.

    There is a very small black entrepreneurial class yes. The 5% that vote R.

  146. Howard Dean says:

    MFG is on fire today and 100% correct.

  147. Phil says:

    Michael Steele ran for the senate in Maryland. He got slaughtered. He got slaughtered because he had an R by his name. End of story. He could have spent the entire campaign “listening” to the NAACP. Wouldn’t have made a lick of difference.


  148. Ryan says:

    Hugely disappointing election last night. All around. Not much else to say.

    What there is to say is that Chris Christie must lose in 2013. There are a lot worse things than a Democractic governor of New Jersey, including a Republican governor who is either too stupid to know he is being used as a political prop or too selfish to care about his party and the future of this country. Chris Christie wants to talk about respect but he has completly lost mine.

  149. jason says:

    Rush said it best today.

    It’s hard to beat Santa Claus.

  150. Todd King says:

    I’m in a mostly-white suburb of Philly (Main Line), for purposes of full disclosure.

    Here are some key states with large black populations (percentages rounded to the nearest whole-number):

    GA: 30%
    NC: 22%
    VA: 20%
    FL: 16%
    NJ: 14%
    OH: 12%.

  151. Emerica says:

    I thought Steele was a really good RNC chairman btw. He had an interesting vision for how primaries\caucuses should work.

  152. Robbie says:

    The knee jerk reaction from most Republicans will be to elevate Marco Rubio. I’m a big Marco Rubio fan, but I would prefer he avoid the 2016 cycle. We need him to win his Senate seat in 2016 and establish himself as a top tier Senator. Right now, he’s still a novelty. He’s just 41 years old.

    I prefer Jeb Bush and I know that will cause a lot of outrage with many who post here. I don’t fully support his views on immigration, but I think he offers the best solution to the problems Republicans have. His governing was conservative and he has big appeal to Hispanics. He also locks down Florida without spending a dime.

    I think a Bush/Sandoval ticket would make huge strides in the Mountain West, an area quickly slipping away. I think a Bush/Martinez ticket would be really good too. Regardless, there must be a bilingual speaker on the Republican ticket in 2016.

  153. Todd King says:

    Get 1/4 of that vote from FL, OH, and VA, and Romney takes or is close to taking those states.

  154. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    How are you doing Howard Dean, don’t see you as much as I used to…

  155. Apologetic California says:

    The Romney campaign spent more time getting Donald Trump’s endorsement than the endorsement of at least one black person.

  156. middle-of-the-roader says:

    It’s not just demographic, it’s also social issues. (and the two are related) Ever since the Christian right took over large pockets of the GOP, it has alienated large segments of the population, including minorities and women. It gives the Akins, Mourdochs and Christine O’Donnells way too much influence.

    It’s time to tell the Christian Right that they have to fall in line behind other conservative issues, particularly on the economy.

  157. jason says:

    ” Lemme gather some statistics on the racial composition of populations by state.”

    Don’t bother. The only swing states above the national average are VA, FL and NC.

    PA, IA, WI, NH, WI, MN, CO are all below that. Michigan 1% above.

  158. Apologetic California says:

    GOP is also getting creamed with Asians. They now vote like Mexicans.

    That wasn’t true under Reagan.

  159. Emerica says:

    Bush crime family taking another shot at it?

  160. Phil says:

    one fourth of the black vote?

    On what planet?

  161. jason says:

    162. Middle of the roader, who is to the left of Marx, is full of crap too.

    Blacks and Hispanics are social conservatives. They are not pro abortion or pro gay marriage.

  162. Howard Dean says:

    Thank you for helping the children of St. Jude
    On behalf of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and especially on behalf of the children and their families, thank you for your generosity.

    If you have any questions, please call us at 1-800-805-5856 or email us at

    Your donation information:
    Confirmation number: 1900729
    Date: November 07, 2012 5:30 PM
    Payment method: Credit Card – Master Card
    Bill to: art XXXXXX

    spokane, WA
    US 99203
    Email address:
    Donation amount: $ 1000.00
    Donation type: One Time

  163. Ponderer says:

    Todd – I live in a liberal, racially and economically diverse neighborhood in Pittsburgh. we have a mix of nice old homes being renovated and section 8 housing. I am one of the people that is working to make my neighborhood better. Let me tell you the way it is. With very few exceptions the younger AA’s do not work. The women are taking care of children and the men are mooching off of them for a place to stay. The men spend most of their day smoking weed and playing on their smart phones. I have never seen a single one working. They gave up on themselves long ago. There are other “more successful” types driving Lexus and Cadillac SUV’s. They too are living in section 8 housing. And when they are not doing that they are emptying a 9mm clip at each other (and generally missing what they are shooting at.) That’s right in an area of $300,000 homes we get gun fire on a regular basis. Some are good neighbors like the one next door who works a couple of jobs and raises her kids pretty well. Of course she also had an Obama sign in her window.

    It is your turn now. What do you think we should offer them? I am open to suggestions.

  164. Brandon says:

    Ryan, or you could worry about your own state and let NJ voters vote how they would like to.

  165. Howard Dean says:

    How’s that for integrity?

    How many people do you know that would pay a $1000 bet made with an anonymous person on the net?

    It went to a great cause.

  166. jason says:

    Yeah, Asians ARE very entrepreneurial. Contrary to what Todd King said about blacks, a large percentage of Asians DO own small businesses. Last night I said it was a mystery to me they would be majority Democratic.

    I know that the Vietnamese community has a lot of Republicans.

  167. Howard Dean says:

    MFG, Like you, it’s all about survival now.

    America’s downfall is stunning.

  168. jason says:

    171. I would pay.

  169. jason says:

    I don’t expect to get kudos for having integrity, but that is just me.

  170. Howard Dean says:

    Comment by jason — November 7, 2012 @ 6:36 pm

    We’re probably in the minority. Most people would just not return to the website or say GFY I’m not paying.

    Way too easy to blow it off.

    I’m not even the betting type, this was a rare exception.

  171. Emerica says:

    I’m sorry, but the Bushes new this was a sacrificial election.

    I can see them making a run at in 2016 in a year that they know they can win.

  172. Brandon says:

    I wouldn’t make a $1000 bet in the first place, even offline.

  173. Howard Dean says:

    I don’t expect to get kudos for having integrity, but that is just me.


    We’re not talking $50, it’s $1,000 made with an anonymous person.

    Zero repercussions if I walked away. Most people would have blown it off.

  174. EML says:

    157 – 0-100, are you upset that womenfolk and coloreds have the right to vote?

  175. jason says:

    Wobbie Troll is only pushing Jeb Bush because he knows he would lose 40 states. Jeb Bush is not a conservative and is for open borders. A non-starter.

    His time has passed, he doesn’t have the fire to run, he has turned down a guaranteed Senate seat. The Bush name is toxic, let’s admit it, even though nobody here is a bigger fan of the Bush family, especially GWB and GHWB. Class acts.

    Jeb Bush is a joke of candidate. It’s part of Wobbie Troll’s brokered convention asininity.

  176. Howard Dean says:

    I wouldn’t make a $1000 bet in the first place, even offline.


    Like I said, rare exception. I do not usually bet. That will likely be my last. Whether I won or not.

  177. Ryan says:

    170. They can vote how they like. I can spend my money how I like and speak how I like.

    If the Governor of New Jersey can speak at the RNC as the keynote and then strongly influence a national election, his election is certainly a avalid concern for people outside of New Jersey.

  178. Tim V says:

    lisab, i accept my part of the blame for what i see as the decline in civility at hhr. whether you are a protestant, catholic, muslim or mormon- no one likes to have their faith attacked. i admit i have attacked the catholic faith. although i feel there are valid scriptural reasons to do so, a better strategy would have been to just keep my opinions to myself

    the gop needs to attract catholic voters and evangelical candidates that embrace rev hagee or have abortion positions that do not include rape and incest positions will be poisonous for the gop

  179. Emerica says:

    No I thought Steele did a really good job with the GOP primary\caucus planning.

    From that standpoint maybe the best GOP chairman we’ve had.

  180. Emerica says:

    I think it was some of the Romney folks that came after Steele because of it too.

  181. Brandon says:

    Hey if you want to flush money down the toilet that’s your business. I’m just trying to save you some money.

  182. jason says:

    GA: 30% Not a swing state and its 31%
    NC: 22% Swing state
    VA: 20% Swing state
    FL: 16% Swing state
    NJ: 14% Not a swing state
    OH: 12%. That’s under the national average

    The point was Rs don’t need the black vote to win. They were winning without it for decades.

  183. Big Joe says:

    I purposely stayed away from all the poll dissections and fisking this time. 2008 taught me that the polls are generally right. So this year I decided that I would simply judge the race by the toplines of each poll while applying a bit of common sense to weed out the outliers.

    Doing so, I would save countless hundreds of hours. And I’m so glad that I did that. We had a lot of weirdness but the general trajectory of the race never really changed.

    Obama had a small lead through the beginning of the year into the summer. The lead expanded after the Dem convention, quickly snapped towards Mitt after the 1st debate, and then reverted to the mean after that (the mean was a small Obama lead) heading into election day. The this is exactly how the election played out.

  184. jason says:

    I liked Steele but he was a failure as Chairman. Period.

  185. Tim V says:

    i deplore all the trolls at hhr and the lack of civility and the infighting, mocking and foul language

    I’d also like to thank dw and rdelbov for their thoughtful analysis and insights

    kudos to eml and walt and howard dean

    the very first time i recall the f word being used here was when gary maxwell used it to chekote

    now it is used ALL the time because dave won’t ban anyone one for using it

  186. Big Joe says:

    This was the GOP’s election to win. What brought Obama over the finish line was his likeability (to keep him in the hunt), and the superior ground game.

    The “firewall strategy” will be something that political scientists study for some time.

    Before the GE even started, Obama had already decided that he was making his last stand in just a handful of states. If they drifted away, then the election was lost. The firewall held.

  187. Emerica says:

    Once I saw Romney flailing around in Pennsylvania trying for hail marry passes in the last week, then we really knew it was over. I also saw him in Wisconsin a bunch a state that was gone.

    I heard in Fox News today, that he was there because his internals were showing him 5-6% behind in Ohio.

  188. Tim V says:

    i would like to see bunu/emerica banned

  189. RB says:

    Before everyone even starts thinking about Christie, the tapes of his greatest hits attacking female legislators of the other party on the public record are numerous. The kind comments he has directed to Huttle and Weinberg in NJ would sink him below 45% amongst female voters nationally who aren’t used to his rehtoric everyday. The Dems would have a field day with him.

  190. Big Joe says:


    This was the GOP’s election to *lose*….

  191. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Jason, Jason, Jason.

    I voted for Reagan. I voted for Bob Dole.

    Cut, it with the left wing marxist crapola. I’ve been coming to this site for a decade.

    If you want to appeal to the moderates in the country, the tone you use is part of the problem. And, yes, there are conservative Hispanics and Blacks, but when folks like yourself use such a vitriolic tone it drives them away.

  192. Emerica says:

    Steele wrote an essay on his vision for the republican primary\caucus planning and it was pure awesomeness.

    It explained why the Romney people came at him so hard. If it wasn’t for him the GOP primary would have been over in a week or two, but if he had gotten all he had wanted, it would have been even better.

  193. jason says:

    I agree with Big Joe, except about the polls being right. They weren’t. The leftist agenda driven polls showing big margins for Obama in the swing states were BS. Yes in the last week they all went for the MOE, but there were many Marist and PPP polls in August and September and October showing big leads for Obama, all fraudulent. I think Philly Inquirer had a +11 poll for Obama in PA recently. Marist had polls in October with leads of 5-8 points for Obama in Ohio, Florida, VA, IA, etc.

  194. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Howard, what was the bet over, I can’t recall

    Good for you for honoring it

  195. Big Joe says:


    The polls were generally right. I did say in my post that I applied common sense to them all to weed out the weird ones. The polls showing R+4 in PA at the end? R had leads in MI and MN at the end – yes those were weird. Just as weird as the O+11 one you cited.

  196. jason says:

    198. Screw you, a-hole.

    I am not vitriolic. I am foreign born myself. English is not my first language. I am on record as supporting a responsible immigration reform that includes securing the border.

    Voted for Reagan? LOL. You are an apologist for Marxists.


  197. Bitterlaw says:

    The quintessential bluestate dumbfuqq argument from Bitterlaw

    I didn’t make that post, Soggy. Any more flooding in LSC?

  198. jason says:

    202. Let’s be honest. There were a few pro-Romney polls from Susquehanna and one for Romney in Michigan.

    But the vast majority of polls before the last week from PPP, Marist, Reuters, CNN etc were all agenda driven showing much larger margins for Obama than really happened. They were done to fit the narrative that Obama had already won. You know it, I know it, everyone knows it.

  199. Emerica says:

    I’m going to see if I can find that Steele essay.

    I didn’t bother sharing at the time, because it was awesome.

    But i’ll see if I can find it.

  200. Big Joe says:

    As for 2016, too early. In 2008 I predicted it would be Hillary vs Palin in 2016. Oh well.. but that was 4 years ago 🙂

    Looking towards 2014, I don’t know how many seats are up in the Senate, but this is the year that the Dem class of 2008 will need to defend their seats. Obama will not be on the ticket. It will be tough. Franken, Hagan come to mind. Not sure who else is up.

  201. jason says:

    ‘I heard in Fox News today, that he was there because his internals were showing him 5-6% behind in Ohio.”

    You listen to Fox? I thought it was anti-war Radio and Stormfront.

    But that lie has been debunked.

  202. Big Joe says:

    #205 I don’t know Jason. There’s no way to assess the accuracy of a poll conducted in say July or August.

    Maybe the lesson is that we shouldn’t pay as much attention to the polls at that time. I didn’t, and I’m glad.

  203. jason says:

    Say goodbye to Begich.

  204. Bitterlaw says:

    jason – how are the Amish? Did you tell them about Obama yet?

  205. jason says:

    209. Well Big Joe, if we don’t discuss polls here there is not much point to the blog.

  206. Big Joe says:

    Yeah Begich is a goner.

  207. jason says:

    I plan to break the news to them at the barn raising on Saturday. Amos will say what he always says “those English are crazy”.

  208. Brandon says:

    “Joe Miller for Alaska” can save Begich.

  209. Emerica says:

    This explains it

    The Conservative Papers: Why the RNC Fired Michael Steele

    In August of 2010, Steele implemented a new set of rules governing how the party elects its nominee for the November Presidential general election. Rather than have a handful of liberal states plus South Carolina (for the misguided appearance of fairness) determine the nominee before the overwhelming majority of the country even gets to vote, Steele spread out the calender, implementing penalties for states that broke the rules and held their contests prior to Super Tuesday. The penalty for doing so would entail the loss of 50% of a state’s total delegates plus the proportional distribution of those delegates rather than a winner-take-all vote. This enabled states that actually vote Republican in the general election to play a role in determining who the party’s nominee would be. Hence the RNC’s fury and the reason they angrily replaced Steele with the relatively obscure Reince Preibus.
    The result of Steele’s rule changes have extended the contest at least into April, and have forced the RNC’s hand-picked liberal to spend hundreds of millions of dollars battling conservative candidates whose combined vote totals far outweigh that of the liberal former Massachusetts governor. The race appears headed for a brokered convention, at which, at least in theory, a candidate other than the liberal supported by the RNC could emerge as the party’s nominee.
    Not that the party elites will go away quietly. They’ve already been rigging things to the best of their ability to favor Romney, hitting the airwaves and doing the talk-show circuit proclaiming that his nomination is “inevitable”. Naturally, the “Superdelegates”, mostly RNC members or other top party officials, are nearly all lining up behind Romney. Of the 37 who have committed as of the time of this writing, 32 of those 37 have announced they will be voting for Romney.

  210. jason says:

    215. Right. Run Miller and we get the same outcome as Akin and Mourdock.

  211. jason says:

    Hey Bunu, anything interesting to quote from Mein Kampf?

  212. jason says:

    RCP Poll average predicted 49/50 states.

  213. Robbie says:

    Nothing makes me happier than seeing Jason fly off the handle at what I post.

  214. Big Joe says:

    HHR Electoral College Watch also correctly predicted 49 out of 50 🙂

    Nice job Dave

  215. Tim V says:

    221-yes dave, nice job

  216. Apologetic California says:

    What County-by-County Results Tell Us About the Election

    Outside Texas, the only counties Republicans gained from 2004 were places where people do not live. It looks overwhelming in the map, but doesn’t tell the story. Though we did a lot better in Massachussetts than in 2004.

  217. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Exhibit A of why the GOP is having trouble attracting minorities, women and moderates.

    Jason – “Screw you, a-hole.” “GFY.” ” apologist for Marxists.”

    Way to talk to someone who HAS had a moderate voting record and YES VOTED FOR Reagan, Dole, Perot, Anderson and many other indie and GOP candidates on the state and local level.

  218. ac1 says:

    Obama got 45% in Alaska so we may not even win that seat.

  219. Big Joe says:

    225 Obama won’t be on the ticket in 2014. Begich loses unless he’s up against an Akin/Mourdoch.

  220. Apologetic California says:

    Dave Wasserman ?@Redistrict
    No doubt House Dems won more votes last night than House GOP, but Romney/GOP won clear majority of districts. Dems= cluster-****ed

  221. jenny's BLUE POLLS! says:

    I heard a big Obama day rolled onto Ras today!


  222. etNTexas says:

    I have serious doubts as to whether or not we will be allowed to even have elections in 2016. The decline could be that fast.

  223. ac1 says:

    Seriously though why would anyone pay for Ras now? His last 2 WI polls had it tied and it was not even close.

  224. Brandon says:

    No, RAS found too many Democrats….again.

  225. Brandon says:

    I just don’t understand how his party ID poll was so far off, R+5.7? Really? That’s not even in the ballpark.

  226. JackJ says:


    Come back in 2014. By then Obama will be at Bush’s 2006 level of approval and it will be a GOP year.

  227. Emerica says:

    Rasmussen is a bogus polling operation like Zogby used to be.

  228. Emerica says:

    If Jeb and the Bush Crime family are really eyeing 2016, every conservative needs to start working to make sure that he doesn’t achieve that.

    Now that would be worse than even Romney.

  229. Cory says:

    National polls missed by almost 2 points. RCP had a 0.7 Obama lead, and it’s going to turn out to be about 2.5

    If I recall, Ras is one of the pollsters that ‘corrects’ for cell phones, but does not survey them. I think his ‘correcting’ for cell phones is proving to be unreliable.

  230. Greg from MD says:

    Just wanted to say thanks to all for your insightful comments this election season. I started lurking here in 2003 during the CA recall election as a senior in college and have been back every year since. Now at age 30, I can honestly say that many of the posts here have really helped shape my political philosophy. I’m as disappointed as anyone with the outcome, but I will remain hopeful and continue to fight the good fight. Thanks to Dave for all your hard work. Until next time!

  231. Joe Biden says:

    You guys wanna know what you should do??
    Run AWAY from the Tea Party as fast as you can,Stop the homophobia and racism..
    White people are the minority get used to it and the country is getting more Liberal..


  232. Apologetic California says:

    234, Didn’t we say that Obama is going to lose easy this year as well?

  233. Apologetic California says:

    238, hello fellow millennial! I worked for Tom’s recall campaign briefly as a volunteer.

  234. Joe Biden says:

    Yea right,Bring back another Bush,Another Palin while you are at it! LOL

  235. JackJ says:

    240. Never thought taking down Obama was going to be easy and that Mitt was the only one of the R candidates that had ANY chance.

  236. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Cory, as I noted in an earlier, thread, RCP has some ‘splaining to do themselves, as they seemed to conveniently not include tracking polls such as Ipsos, PPP and Rand that consistently showed worse numbers for Romney than Gallup and Ras.

    And, in the end, all 3 of those trackers were more accurate than the beloved Ras and the white elephant Gallup.

    If you went to other Polling sites and looked at the final polling averages, they were all much better than RCP this time around – the other averages showed a 1 to 2 pt. Obama lead.

  237. Cory says:

    Oh, and I predict that Hillary Clinton and Paul Ryan will be leading the primary polls PPP puts out later this week, but that Hillary and Bob McDonnell will eventually win the nominations.

  238. Cory says:

    Another symptom of people trusting the “old ways of polling”, I think. It’s an industry where reputations matter, but also an industry where you HAVE to adapt, and sometimes those things work in opposition.

    Declining response rates, and the death of landlines, can’t just be ignored.

  239. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Cory, that’s part of it, but, RCP was very inconsistent in using polls from THE SAME POLLING FIRM in their State vs. National Polling averages. Why include a State poll from POLLSTER A, but not their National?

  240. TandA says:

    Ras had Romney going 5-2-2 in the BGs. He won 1.

    He had PID in his survey at a near record GOP high. Instead it was a near modern record Dem high.

    I believe he had Romney leading a plurality of the daily releases since spring. Arguably, Romney only led for a week or so all year.

    I suspect that Scott was manipulating the daily PID to maintain the topline. A couple of weeks ago he had a large spike for Romney in the internals and during that period he increased Dem PID. When the spike cleared after a few days, PID moved back towards the GOP. During the spike, the topline stayed between R+1 and R+2, even though the internals moved up and then down 4-5 pts.

  241. Scott says:

    So how many seats did the Libertarians cost the GOP? At least the Jordan and Paton seats in Arizona. I wish they would disappear.

  242. Marv says:

    Hi folks,

    I don’t plan to post here as much as I used to. I’ll look in now and again, but that’s about it until the 2014 mid-term elections.

    I’ve enjoyed the discussions here and I’ll sign off now for awhile.

    See you folks later.

  243. Scott says:

    Good luck with life! Yesterday made things tougher for all of us.Thanks for the engaging conversation.

  244. Apologetic California says:

    250, Enjoy the holidays!

  245. lisab says:

    my sister in wisconsin voted for obama …

    then complained to me for half an hour about how she can’t find a job

  246. keystone says:

    Republican party was supposed to be done in 1974, 1992, 2006, 2008 and probably 1909 and 1932.

    We have 29 governors, 235+ reps and 45the senators – none of whom will get blame rough times that are upon us.

    One thought – we should try to buy cbs. It was teies in the 80s and shut the pipsqueaks up for a while.

  247. Apologetic California says:

    253, SMH. Total waste. Seen it too many times.

  248. Apologetic California says:

    254, Good point. But there’s a sense of dread that these offices are on borrowed time.

  249. keystone says:

    As a campaigner, Obama is one of the best. He took down the Clinton machine. How many states do we win if Joe Biden is the 2016 if nominee?

  250. lisab says:

    “SMH. Total waste. Seen it too many times”

    the worst part was her reasoning …

    she said, “obama was for the middle class”

  251. keystone says:

    See ya Marv. Great posts.

  252. Addisonst says:

    Wow we lost walt and marv. They were both on my if I were gay list.

  253. Brandon says:

    This site is dead already.

  254. keystone says:

    Most of the democrats I know are not cradle to grave zombies looking for free phones. They are ill informed in some cases, but not slugs

  255. lisab says:

    what do you mean, “if”?

  256. Bitterlaw says:

    Marv – Your goodbye gets a zero on the Maxwell Scale and an 8 on the Walt Scale. I was hoping for a “mofo.”

  257. Addisonst says:

    Good evening ladies and gentlemen: now that the mouth breathers cost us another election here are some topics for the hiatus: lance armstrong is a criminal cheating fraud; the eagles are overrated and worse than the bears; joe paterno had he lived would have been indicted. Unlike another poster, I haven’t imbibed in Bear kool aid. They play hou and sf the next 2 weeks. If they win either the kool aid flows.

  258. keystone says:

    We should make legalized pot part of our platform. That should turn around the young vote.

  259. Cory says:

    “This site is dead already.”
    I think I’m the only one here who has seen his candidate win the last two Presidential elections.

    January 2nd, 2008 I jumped on the Obama train, and I’m never jumping off.
    A great man, a great politician, and a better President.

  260. bio mom says:

    You are a Canadian. He is not your candidate. That said, I would be happy for you to take him and give our country a chance to survive.

  261. keystone says:

    Cory – did you ever give Mitt a serious look? If not, what would prompt you to consider a repi lican?

  262. Bitterlaw says:

    Have you ever experienced a throbbing pain in a molar at 3:00 am on a Saturday night? You take 4 or 5 Advil just to get the apin to the point where you can half sleep and you know you won’t be able to see a dentist until Monday – Maybe Sunday if you can get your dentist to come to the office?

    I would trade that for having to read 0-100’s Ron Paul bs for the next 4 years. Who’s with me?

  263. Bitterlaw says:

    I think I’m the only one here who has seen his candidate win the last two Presidential elections.

    You can’t say that about your hockey team and the Stanley Cup? You’re probaably a Senators fan. I heard that Ottawa may be one of the worst places in North America.

  264. Addisonst says:

    At least this site has agreed on one thing after years of wars and countless deaths: Jay Cutler is a better qb than Michael Vick.

  265. lisab says:

    what is

    ” 0-100?s “

  266. Bitterlaw says:

    This site is not dead. It is the standard HHR Ritual. Victories keep the party going for weeks. Losses are like wakes. Mst people show up, pay their respects to the dead, and run for the parking lot.

    The regulars will stay on duty.

  267. keystone says:

    Agreed. Ron Paul is a total crack pot. I would vote Obama over Paul and Obama is worse dot the US than Carter.

  268. Bitterlaw says:

    lsab – Emerica believes that he is a political genius even though his god, Ron Paul, is 0-100 in Primaries and caucuses. I just think that calling him 0-100 reminds everybody of his complete failure as an analyst and judge of candidates.

  269. Hunter says:

    From one of your own…

    Can I offer you folks some perspective from a Canadian viewpoint?

    Up here in Canuckistan we had virtually unrivaled Liberal rule for decades, and conservatives could see no hope of any end to it. The public, we feared, would always vote for more free goodies and handouts. Yet today we have a Conservative government, while the all-powerful Liberals have been reduced to a pitiful rump.

    As Mark Steyn says, Progressives are fond of telling you that the “tide has turned”, but they never take into account that the tide that comes in goes out again. Food for thought.

  270. Bitterlaw says:

    Add – so what? Cutler is still a p*ssy who has never won anything. Vick can suck and Cutler can be a post-season p*ssy at the same time. Both can be true.

  271. Hunter says:

    Still focusing on the important issues…

    Los Angeles County voters chose safety Tuesday night when they approved a requirement that all porn actors wear condoms — a move that adult film workers complain will put a massive dent into a booming industry.

    With 100 percent of the county’s precincts reporting, “Safer Sex in the Adult Film Industry Act” — or Measure B — passed 56 percent to 44 percent.

  272. Michael says:

    I want Martinez 2016!!!


  273. Bitterlaw says:

    Michael – I went to law school with Kelly Ayotte. I think she is a great person and politician. She is not moderate except for personality. She will smile at you while she stabs you in the heart. We need more of her in the GOP.

  274. Cory says:

    Political parties rise and fall; mostly on their ability to change with the electorate, but partly on the idea that absence makes the heart grow fonder.

    I was pleased to see Democrats win last night, but Democrats winning is a temporary thing. Long term, more pleasing is to see gay marriage go 4/4. The tipping point is passed, gays are accepted now. That tide will never go back out.

  275. Brandon says:

    That’s ridiculous. No one watches porn that uses condoms.

  276. Bitterlaw says:

    Hunter – Thanks for the update. You wouldn’t find many Bs in the porn industry (although Katie Morgan was great before she opted for surgery)..

  277. Bitterlaw says:

    Barndon – I agree. It’s better when 2 women . . Michael, please leave the room.

  278. Addisonst says:

    Wb Michael. Round up 2 million of your closest friends.

  279. Sir Albert says:

    Hunter, are condoms to be used only during fornication? I hope. I would hate it if condoms also had to be used during BJ scenes. That would be horrible, we might have to bring this to SCOTUS!

  280. Addisonst says:

    Brandon kudos to you. You are the Nate Silver of hhr

  281. Cory says:

    Why isn’t Nate Silver the Nate Silver of HHR?
    Start reading Nate Silver, people.

  282. Bitterlaw says:

    Good thing SusyQue is already praying about 2016 or the last few posts might kill her.

  283. Addisonst says:

    Alberto glad to count you amongst the survivors. Hhr is the great escape. We start digging tom dick and harry

  284. Michael says:

    @290 lol

    We need this double woman punch. It would be perfect. How could women not want two moderate women that have nothing but substance and the issues. And a Hispanic woman that is ready for immigration reform

    It’s official, I am saving up money now for a Martinez-Ayotte run or the other way around,
    Anyways I think that’s how we should have it in 2016

  285. keystone says:

    Susyque post today? I hope she hasn”t lost heee faith.

  286. Sir Albert says:

    Thanks Add. Don’t be down guys. Go out and get laid. It feels damn good.

  287. Bitterlaw says:

    I would love Ayotte to be the Presidential candidate but she not a moderate, Michael. She also would tell the MSM in the nicest possible way – GFY. I have seen her drink beer and play softball. She is a fierce competitor (not as much with the beer as the softball).

  288. Hunter says:



    Even better during the election last night, I might add…

    I know…too much information…

    But those 7 seconds were the highlight of my evening as the result from NC came in…

  289. Diogenes says:

    Ras was off. Landlines are gone and cell phones were undersampled in many polls. The dems were right. THe electorate has really moved against us.

    For every 10% of the voter that is white, Republicans net 2 points.

    For every 10% of the electorate that is black, Obama netted 8.8 ponts. Virginia was 22% black giving Obama a 19.36% lead to start with. Republicans don’t have a chance with those kinds of numbers and bleeding moderate white support. If you increase black support from 94-6 to 89-11, every 10% gives the dems only a 7.8% advantage. Small changes in preference can lead to big swings in votes as support becomes more evenly split.

    For every 10% of the electorate that is hispanic, Democrats gain 4 points. If we had kept it to the Bush Margin of 44-56, Dems only net 1.2 points.

    Asians were also stronger in backing Obama this year: 75-25, 10% = 5 points gained for every 10% of the electorate. They ended up being 3% of the vote.

    Doing the Math: Obama already has a 17 lead if 27% of the electorate is the minority mix we saw in 2012.

    Romney only gets a 14.6 point lead from the rest of the vote.

    If we assume a proportionate mix of ethnicities, (6.43 points lead for every 10% of the electorate), here is what the top lines would have looked like given a different electorate mix.

    White%/Minority% – Romney/Obama

    73/27 – 14.6/17 (Actual 2012 Election Day)
    74/26 – 14.8/16.7 (2008 Turnout)
    75/25 – 15/ 16.1
    76/24 – 15.2/15.4
    77/23 – 15.4/14.8
    78/22 – 15.6/14.1
    79/21 – 15.8/13.5 (2004 Turnout)
    89/11 – 17.8/7.1 (1980 Turnout – Reagan won 50.7-40.1, 10.6 points)

    As you can see, Mitt matched Reagan’s numbers in 1980 and would’ve won almost exactly Reagan’s margin of victory in 1980 IF THE ELECTORATE WERE THE SAME. He also would’ve likely won with these numbers in 2008 againsa generic dem candidate.

    The expected share of the white vote was suppose to be 77%: It ended up being 74% because of Obama’s strong minority appeal. Obama shifted the electorate literally 8 years into the future in 2008, forcing the GOP to face a demographic shift far sooner than they expected to. Not only that he increased his margins with minorities by huge amounts.

    In 2012, the white share of the vote was only down 1%: slower than the 2% decrease we’ve seen past election cycles, but it still was not enough. Romney increased his share of the white vote to Reaganesque margins (60/40) versus McCain’s Paldry 55-45 margin in 2008.

    I saw no Axelrod figure on Romney’s side. And I saw nothing that indicated that Romney knew the kind of election he was suppose to be fighting. It looked like a Rove-style campaign to bring out partisans combined with Reagan’s strategy from 1980.

    Romney campaigned exactly like Reagan when he should have been campaigning like Bush 2000 (not Bush 2004) by strongly appealing to all minority voters and demographic groups.

    The enthusiasm Romney was very real and similar to Reagan in 1980 (almost exactly), but that share of the electorate is only 73% and decreasing now.

    Here’s what the tallies would’ve looked like if Romney had gotten Bush-2004-like margins with minorities assuming proportional representation of different minority groups (13% AA, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asians). Bust got 11-89 with AA and 44-56 with both Hispanics and Asians in 2004. In this case, Obama would have gotten only 4.38% votes

    White%/Minority% – Romney/Obama
    68/32 – 13.6/14.0
    69/31 – 13.8/13.6
    70/30 – 14.0/13.1
    71/29 – 14.2/12.7
    72/28 – 14.4/12.3
    73/27 – 14.6/11.8 (2012 Turnout)
    74/26 – 14.8/11.4 (2008 Turnout)
    79/21 – 15.8/9.2 (2004 Turnout)

    If Romney had been able to match Bush’s performance with minorities or at least come decently close, he would currently be the president-elect of the United States.

    The takeaway?

    1) It should have been Rubio.
    2) Given the demographic shift, Republicans have about 2 presidential election cycles left to try to get to where Bush was with minority groups while holding on to about an equal share of the white vote. Once they have the presidency again, they can rebuild the brand and try to get to the point where Hispanics are a swing group.
    3) We will have a bipolar electorate for a while. Midterms see minority participation way down. Off-election years will still be more kind to us … but not for long.
    4) The party must adapt or die.

  290. Addisonst says:

    OK here’s a feel good moment for everybody.

    Israel whacking Iran by the end of 2013 are skyrocketing. If we can’t all rally around shorting achmadinnerjaket what can we rally around?

  291. Addisonst says:

    sorry i meant israel futures on intrade.

  292. Bitterlaw says:

    Sex on a Wednesday? You can’t be married. Zing!

  293. Ned Stark says:

    Seriously we could easily cut through a lot of the demographics by taking a libertarian view with weed. It would be much quicker and less messy than flailing away with AA’s. That would turnout more of the youth vote and decrease the lation defiency conservatives have. Additionally it also plays well with the less government philosophy and does not come across as hypocritical. Make it a states issue and not a federal one at a minimum.

  294. Addisonst says:

    alberto I wish Marv was here to discuss.

    The Great Escape ties Patton as my favorite war flick. I am going to be the James Garner character. I do see you as Hilt/mcqueen but pick another role if you wish.

  295. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Israel will never attack

    Bluster bluster bluster and never any action

  296. Tim V says:

    bitter, my farewell post will actually be several smaller posts so i don’t know if the maxwell scale will apply. it will not be an angry post just my own thoughts and observations. kinda a before and after analysis of how hhr changed (in my opinion for the worse)

  297. Hunter says:

    I get time slots emailed to me…

  298. Tim V says:

    Susyque is a parody poster

  299. Bitterlaw says:

    Wn Israelis say “Never again,” they mean it. They may not put missiles in the air but I would not want to be an Irania vuclear scientist these days.

  300. Tim V says:

    marv, i always enjoyed your posts and your loyalty and promotion of rick perry

  301. Sir Albert says:

    Does SusyQue swallow?

  302. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – I hope it takes you 10 years to post it all. Rev. hagee is booked years in advance for funerals. Zing!

  303. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    They’ll never do anything

    They’ll wait and wait and wait and sabre rattle and bluster and wait…

    And then a nuke will go off in Tel Aviv

  304. keystone says:

    I think we have stumbled upon our new wedge issue with pot. The tax revenue would certainly be welcome. Bad for the crime element but we don”t get those votes anyway. Also good for phillip morris.

  305. Addisonst says:

    Mfg israel is hated by everybody. They are not going to wait to be crispy fried. I’m shorting dinner jacket. Besides its fun to say that

  306. Diogenes says:

    Sorry about the previous post. It was riddled with errors. I did it on my ipad throughout the day.

    Post Election Analysis:
    The dems were right. The electorate has really moved against us.
    For every 10% of the voter that is white, Republicans net 2 points, assuming they win the white vote 60/40 (Bush and Romney did)
    For every 10% of the electorate that is black, Obama netted 8.8 points. Virginia is about 20% black giving Obama about a 17.6% lead to start with. To match that the remaining 80% of the population has to vote Republican above a rate well above 60/40. We don’t have a chance with those kinds of numbers and bleeding moderate white support. If you increase black support from 94-6 to 89-11, every 10% gives the dems only a 7.8% advantage for every 10% of the electorate they win. Small changes in preference can lead to big swings in votes as support becomes more evenly split.
    For every 10% of the electorate that is hispanic, Democrats gained 4 points to their margin of victory this cycle. If we had kept it to the Bush Margin of 44-56, Dems only net 1.2 points.
    Asians were also stronger in backing Obama this year: 75-25, 10% = 5 points gained for every 10% of the electorate. They ended up being 3% of the vote.
    Doing the Math: Obama already has a 17 point lead if 27% of the electorate is the minority mix we saw happen yesterday.
    Romney only gets a 14.6 point lead from the rest of the vote assuming the turnout and numbers we saw yesterday (73% turnout, 60/40 support).
    If we assume a proportionate mix of ethnicities, (6.43 points lead for every 10% of the electorate), here is what the top lines would have looked like given a different turnout model.
    White%/Minority% – Romney/Obama
    73/27 – 14.6/17 (2012 Turnout)
    74/26 – 14.8/16.7 (2008 Turnout)
    75/25 – 15/16.1
    76/24 – 15.2/15.4
    77/23 – 15.4/14.8
    78/22 – 15.6/14.1
    79/21 – 15.8/13.5 (2004 Turnout)
    89/11 – 17.8/7.1 (1980 Turnout – Reagan won 50.7-40.1, 10.6 points)
    As you can see, Mitt matched Reagan’s numbers in 1980 and would’ve won almost exactly Reagan’s margin of victory in 1980 IF THE ELECTORATE HAD BEEN THE SAME. He also would’ve likely won with these numbers in 2008 against a generic dem candidate (i.e. an electorate that should have been 77% white given past trends).
    The expected share of the white vote was suppose to be 77%. It ended up being 74% because of Obama’s strong minority appeal. Obama shifted the electorate literally 8 years into the future in 2008, forcing the GOP to face a huge demographic shift far sooner than they expected. Not only that, Obama increased his margins with minorities by huge amounts.
    In 2012, the white share of the vote was only down 1%: slower than the 2% decrease we’ve seen past election cycles, but it still was not enough. Romney increased his share of the white vote to Reaganesque margins (60/40) versus McCain’s Paltry 55-45 margin in 2008.
    I saw no Axelrod figure on Romney’s side. And I saw nothing that indicated that Romney knew the kind of campaign he was suppose to be waging. It looked like a Rove-style campaign to bring out partisans combined with Reagan’s strategy from 1980. It was exactly the wrong strategy to take.
    Romney campaigned exactly like Reagan when he should have been campaigning like Bush 2000 by strongly appealing to all minority voters and demographic groups.
    The enthusiasm Romney had was very real and similar to Reagan in 1980 (almost exactly), but the share of the electorate it most affected is only 73% of the electorate and decreasing.
    Here’s what the tallies would’ve looked like if Romney had gotten Bush-2004-like margins with minorities assuming proportional representation of different minority groups (13% AA, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asians). Bust got 11-89 with AA and 44-56 with both Hispanics and Asians in 2004. In this case, Obama would have gotten only 4.38% points for every 10% of the electorate that was minority.
    White%/Minority% – Romney/Obama
    68/32 – 13.6/14.0
    69/31 – 13.8/13.6
    70/30 – 14.0/13.1
    71/29 – 14.2/12.7
    72/28 – 14.4/12.3
    73/27 – 14.6/11.8 (2012 Turnout)
    74/26 – 14.8/11.4 (2008 Turnout)
    79/21 – 15.8/9.2 (2004 Turnout)
    If Romney had been able to match Bush’s performance with minorities or at least come decently close, he would currently be the president-elect of the United States and have won by about 4 percentage points.
    The takeaway?
    1) It should have been Rubio.

    2) Given the demographic shift, Republicans have about 2 presidential election cycles left to try to get to where Bush was with minority groups while holding on to about an equal share of the white vote. Once they have the presidency again, they can rebuild the brand and try to get to the point where Hispanics are a swing group.

    3) We will have a bipolar electorate for a while. Midterms see minority participation way down. Off-election years will still be more kind to us … but not for long.

    4) The party must adapt or die.

  307. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Legalization of pot makes sense

    There aren’t enough inebriated drivers on the road already lets make impaired driving even easier

    Maybe we could also sell LSD to children, think of the tax revenue we could raise with that

  308. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Actual cocaine in Coca-Cola…

  309. W.PA Observer says:

    So Romney ended up getting 30% of the Jewish vote all told?

    Demographics work both ways, the white vote polarizes as well- if we can get to Bush-levels with Latinos and Asians, we should be okay. Remember, in 2010 – we got 37-38% of the Latino vote for Congress. What stuns me is that in 2010, Jan Brewer, JAN BREWER got 29% of the Latino vote.

    On the Youth vote, we actually did 6 percent better with them- 60-38 rather than 66-32. Not enough of a swing, but evidence that there was some erosion of the fever.

    That said, it now looks like 1992 might have been as much of a re-aligning election at the presidential level as 1980 was.

  310. Bitterlaw says:

    Since the traffi has slowed to the hardcore Hedgehoggers, maybe we should agree upon a Resolution of Understanding. I know that there are posters here who can’t stand me. I certainly hope so since I feel the same way about them. However, beyond the bluster, vitriol, and GFYs I respect the dedication it takes to care enough to post here year after year. Even though I really only know 4 or 5 real names of the people here, I know way too much about the regulars.

    I know who is ill. I know who took care of sick relatives or stepped in to help family members in crisis. I’m not going anywhere and I know that many are here to stay as well. If I say GFY, I still respect you enough to consider you worthy of a response. Cream sodas to all (except 0-100).

  311. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    I don’t hate you

    You may be my favorite BlueStateDumbFuqq

  312. Michael says:

    @318 bitter though Ayotte is not moderate I think she would shore up the party while Martinez could just focus on that middle.
    By the way I am honored that you know my actual name

  313. Diogenes says:

    @W. PA – I did the analysis. Bush levels with Latinos and asians will only win us elections up until the point where the white vote is about 69% of the electorate. It was 73% this year and declines by about 2% every 4 years (though that rate slows down as the number nears 50%). We have a few election cycles left to rebuild the brand … I don’t think we see bush numbers of support ever again unless we retake the presidency and do well in it.

  314. BobbyJindal2016 says:


    Whites have to radicalize

    Many southern states have white support for Republicans in excess of 80%

    Radicalizing whites seems easier than thrashing around for Hispanic votes

  315. keystone says:

    Bobby – looks like you are not on board. I am agianst heroin, lsd coccaine, etc
    You could get heroin from the sears catalog 100 uears ago. Needless to say, it was outlawed for a reason.

  316. Bitterlaw says:

    Ihope you are all sitting down. i agree with MFG. I know people way too close to me who are dealing with substance issues. I know that the pot fans a/k/a Paulbots say marijuana is now worse than wine and it is not a gateway drug. BS. Of course not everybody will go straight from weed to heroin but some will. I’ve never heard of anybody going straight from shiraz or cabernet to meth.

  317. Bitterlaw says:

    39 – You soggy bastard. You had me at hello.

  318. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Marijuana destroys initiative

    Come on, all of us know one or more people who smoke lots of pot

    What word describes these people?


  319. BobbyJindal2016 says:

    Problem is once you legalize one drug then the pressure builds to legalize the next one and the next one and…

    Then you end up selling PCP over the counter to 12 year olds

  320. Bitterlaw says:

    Mchael – I forgot it already. Sorry. I was thinking more of MD, Walt, Corey, Tim V., Tim, Jul and Dave Wissing (7). I thought I knew lisab’s name but the reaction I got from the woman on facebook scared me. I think she would have shot me for asking if she was lisab from HHR.

  321. Michael says:

    @328 sounds like the right page if you ask me

  322. Bitterlaw says:

    Come on, all of us know one or more people who smoke lots of pot

    What word describes these people?

    Libertarians? Paulbots? Bill Maher?

  323. Tim V says:

    I think we have stumbled upon our new wedge issue with pot. The tax revenue would certainly be welcome. Bad for the crime element but we don”t get those votes anyway. Also good for phillip morris.- keystone

    farmers would benefit greatly

  324. Michael says:

    Good night everyone

  325. keystone says:

    The gateway is a concern. There are two types of people that have tried heroin. Those that are addicts and those that are dead. I don’t have a lot if experience with pot.

  326. Tim V says:

    330-potheads. many would be libertarians but there is no uniformity

    i was a stoner most of my life but i have always been pro life and an evangelical for most of my life

  327. middle-of-the-roader says:

    re: W.PA Observer : “So Romney ended up getting 30% of the Jewish vote all told? Demographics work both ways, the white vote polarizes as well- if we can get to Bush-levels with Latinos and Asians, we should be okay. Remember, in 2010 – we got 37-38% of the Latino vote for Congress. ”

    Those 2010 numbers may be accurate, but you have to remember that it was an off-year election, and, an exeptional one at that with the Tea Party movement. Even within the Latino vote, there was a higher percentage of moderate to conservative hispanics who showed up to vote, than in ’08 and yesterday.

    2014 should be a better year for the GOP, but, don’t bank on similar turnout numbers as in 2010.

  328. keystone says:

    Time to start Foles?

  329. Tim V says:

    pot has pros and cons. many people flush their lives down the toilet through an addiction to pot. for most people it is NOT addicting.compared to alcohol in my opinion it is FAR less of a danger to the general welfare of society

  330. W.PA Observer says:

    335- No of course not, but it shows what can be done. I don’t buy the demographics are destiny since voting trends change- White working class ethnics were a keystone of the New Deal Coalition from 1932 till they started pealing off in 1968, and completely left in 1980. Latinos are hardly monolithic.

  331. Bitterlaw says:

    Tim V. – The thought of you blazing up listening to Purple Haze and reading the Gospel of John makes me smile.

  332. keystone says:

    I don’t like the lives legal pot might ruin, but i like the idea of sticking it to crime.

  333. keystone says:

    Agreed on latino – clear signs that they can be persuaded. Not as much hope with AA.

  334. keystone says:

    How you can be Jewish and for Obama is a mystery to me.

  335. keystone says:

    Checking out.

  336. Cory says:

    The Prison-industrial complex is a huge drain on your resources, right now. Legalizing pot, and using rehab centres instead of prisons to deal with other drug users, would do a lot to improve the fiscal picture. End the war on drugs.

  337. Diogenes says:

    After Romney said he wanted them to Self-Deport? We forget how conservative Romney had to become during the primary to win it. It all added up to people not really trusting him.

  338. Diogenes says:

    The GOP is Effed hardcore. Arizona becomes purple. I bet a dem wins McCain’s seat when he finally leaves.

  339. Bitterlaw says:

    We could also stop arresting people for drunk driving. Think of the economic boom for funeral homes, physical rehab centers and hospitals.

  340. Ned Stark says:

    Good Lord-you guys immediately dismissing legalizing or giving the states the option of legalizing are acting like we didn’t just lose the PV in 3 out of the last 4 elections. Listen, I’m a pro-life, paul hating conservative who has never done any illegal drug except alcohol but we have to redefine ourselves with 1. Women 2. Youth3. Hispanics.

    I agree there are definate drawbacks with legalizing a drug but that is an issue with the youth anyway and if we don’t get in front of it then the dems are going to and before you know it they are voting like the lesser version of the AA’s. If we take 10 points of the youth margin then screw the AA vote. If we take 5 pts of the womens margin then we are in the drivers seat. All I saying is that we have to look at the top three demographics and develop policy that works in bringing those demographics under the conservative umbrella.

  341. Addisonst says:

    nobody has yet to explain how mitt got less total votes than mccain. I’ll hang up and listen for my answer.

  342. Cory says:

    People get about three chances right now before they even serve any time in prison for drunk driving. You’re spending practically nothing to incarcerate drunk drivers.

    Yet, if you buy enough crack to get you high, without endangering anyone else’s life, you go away for 10 years.

    Right now, 1 in 100 people in the United States is incarcerated, and it costs an average of $30,000 to keep someone in a prison for a year. Knowing that 47 people out of 100 aren’t paying federal taxes, think about how much you’re paying to keep those people incarcerated, next time you pay your taxes.

  343. janz says:

    #318 Bitter

    That was a very sensitive post.

  344. Addisonst says:

    ok so here’s what I think. I think the party sends a billboard all over the country.

    Dear Akin and your supporters: you are hereby dismissed from the party. We don’t want you or your votes.

    Those who find Akin and his mouth breathing friends appalling are welcome to join us.

    Yolanda what you think?

  345. Cory says:

    My favourite comment I’ve seen today, via twitter:

    “Drunk Nate Silver is riding the subway, telling strangers the day they will die.”

  346. W.PA Observer says:

    On that though, I’m taking a break. Will aim to be back in time for the discussions of the 2013 races to begin.

    In PA we improved on 2008- unhappy about the statewide results still, but some progress was made on the presidential vote. Went from a 600,000 vote lost to a 290,000 vote loss. Overall turnout appears to have been down in PA by 400,000 or so votes from 2008. Dem margin in Philly more or less unchanged still very tough to overcome obviously. Held onto the state house by a decent margin- more or less a wash in seats, held onto the state senate majority- though lost a couple seats- the redistricting map should help next cycle. Picked off my Congressman Mark Critz and replaced him with Republican Keith Rothfus- to put our Congressional delegation up to 13-5 GOP. Not bad for a state O took 52-47. Still, less than half his 11 point margin from 2008. Puts us at a D + 2.5-3 state or so for the cycle. Down from D+ 4 in 2008 and D + 5 in 2004. Maybe 2016 will be the year.

    In the meantime, I bid you all the best, and may the coming days be better.

  347. skilaki says:

    The GOP have no one but themselves to blame for when it comes to illegal immigration. Reagan granted amnesty. Bush 41 did nothing. I really thought after 9/11 Bush 43 would at least secure the borders, nope.

    Big business loves cheap labor and the GOP is the party of big business. As long as the GOP is bribed in the form of campaign donations, nothing will happen. They never dared to talk of deporting illegals for fear of losing the Hispanic vote.

    This has been going on for over 30 years and now we are reaching the point of no return. Way to go GOP, enjoy minority status.

  348. Corey says:

    For the record, Romney got 32% of the Jewish vote, up from 22% from McCain in 2008.

    I wish I could take a break from this site, but I feel like I may be one of those Japanese soldiers who never learned that WWII was over. Of course, our political battles against the Democrats on behalf of America will never be over.

  349. Diogenes says:

    Why was turnout for Mitt Romney less than McCain?

    Todd Akin. Richard Mourdock. Circus Primary that sucked all of Mitt’s money as Obama blasted him nonstop with television ads in swing states and spanish network tv.

    Take your pick.

  350. Apologetic California says:

    Just finding it borderline criminal that the Romney campaign spent more time trying to get Donald Trump’s endorsement than the support of people that suffered under Obama the most–blacks, Latinos, and women.

  351. Corey says:

    They didn’t.

    The entire convention was about outreach, especially to Hispanics and women. Trump was not at the convention.

    The problems we have with women politically, are mostly problems with minority women and young women. Not that much different than the problems with minority men and young men (although they are all at least somewhat more willing to vote Republican.)

    The failure to do better with Hispanics was far less about Romney as a candidate personally, and more just about the fact that he has an R next to his name.

    Like it or not, our approach to immigration matters and the rhetoric is going to have to change.

  352. Diogenes says:

    Did they? Romney appealed to Hispanics many times showing up on Univision, etc.

    During the primary, he got defined as hating on immigrants. It was partially self-inflicted, he went to the right on Perry on immigration because Perry was to the right of him on everything else.

    Mitt was a chameleon to many people. I always thought he was a moderate that just had to survive a republican primary but many minority voters didn’t give him the benefit of the doubt.

    The Republican party better wise up on amnesty.

    Even Reagan said in his debate in 2004 against Mondale he supported amnesty.

  353. Diogenes says:

    Well our problems with women begin with Todd Akin and end at Richard Mourdock.

    Damned fools.

  354. Corey says:

    Akin and Mourdock certainly managed to lose elections on their own (and Mourdock was on the edge before that debate and Akin was probably a ticking time bomb on a variety of fronts) but I see no evidence to suggest that that any women who voted against Mitt were going to do so before.

  355. Diogenes says:

    He lost women by double digits. Bush lost them by 3. I’ve met young women that go on and on about those 2 mouth-breathers.


  356. skilaki says:

    362…The Republican party better wise up on amnesty.

    Lincoln/GOP provided amnesty for blacks by ending slavery and were crucial in getting the Civil Rights Act passed.

    How has that helped in bringing blacks to the GOP these last 50 years? You are convinced that amnesty for Hispanics will make them Republicans? I doubt that would happen. More than likely they will be asking for more.

  357. Apologetic California says:

    366, I’m in the same boat. Amnesty is a time bomb. It’s the worst worst way I can think of in gaining Latino votes. It’s just dumb.

  358. skilaki says:

    365…Regarding women, especially single women…if their main concern is access to contraception and abortions (free of course to them but with us paying for it)…well…what can I say except maybe they should not have the right to vote.

    The Democrats ran a campaign based on ladyparts and so many American women decided to buy it, and like many women who choose to stay in a relationship that they KNOW is harmful the result is going to be just as catastrophic.

  359. Polaris says:

    I am going to conclude my time here at HHR (at least for now) with two posts. This first one will deal with the retail politics.

    I’ve discussed much of this already, and I do not disagree that the GOP needs to deal (or kick out) the nativist elements of the GOP pronto or wind up becoming a minority party in the long run. Remember that the GOP doesn’t need to win the latino vote as long as it’s competative.

    I could weep at the chance missed by the GOP after 9/11. After 9/11 the GOP had the perfect chance to completely piviot the illegal immigration issue and talk about it as a national security concern. Such an approach would and should have included reaching out to those already here with some sort of guest-worker…and yes AMNESTY especially if they cooperated with Homeland security to help secure the sourthern border.

    Instead we had clowns like Joke Leaf, Politico, and Tarencedo that made it a Nativist, racist, “protect white america” issue and may have cost the GOP the latino vote for a generation…and risks polarizing that vote as badly as the AA vote is now.

    About polls and DRIs. I make no apologies this time. I had the data and I made my assumptions and I clearly laid them out to all of you. I was VERY CLEAR that if we were wrong, and it was 2008 all over again, there was little hope of beating the president. I never wavered from that. It’s worth noting that my initial (and up to last day) prediction of a 5dem gain in the house as simple correction seems to be nearly spot on.

    I still think DRI and looking at poll internals is useful. I also think that too many people are using this result to retroactively justify bad and/or openly partisan polling. It’s easy to justify a poll it if happens to get the right answer…it doesn’t mean it was done correctly. However, I also think we should be more careful about claiming Dem oversampling. Instead I would recommend that we state (as I DID) what assumptions you are making and why, and then discuss the poll (or polls) in question.

    When I rejoined the discussion in August, I said at the time I though Obama was up by a narrow margin (1-2 points I think I said at the time). I also said I was completely confident about McCain States, NE#2, NC, and IN. I also thought that Fla and VA would likely flip. Had that been my final prediction, it would have been fairly close.

    I note that about 500,000 votes seperated what happened yesterday with a Romney 274 type EC win. It was that close and that brings me back to the House Races. After a 2010 wave election, an extremely Dem favorable D+6 general election (where all house seats were up) only netted the Dems 5 seats which would be more in keeping with a D+2 electorate than a D+6 one. WIth a D+6 one, GOP control of the House should have been iffy at best.

    So what happened? I think this question is a very importan one for those of you in the GOP. I think it would be a mistake to assume that 2008 and 2012 are the ‘new normal’ when the last really major elections that the Dems won with national attention that did NOT have Obama on the ballot happened back in 2006….even when Obama asked his people to help others, it almost never worked (see NJ Gov race or for that matter the Runoff GA Sen election in 2008 done a month after the general election).

    I think that when Obama is on the ticket 2008 is the new normal. It remains to be seen (and I consider it very unlikely) that it’s the new normal without him. That doesn’t mean the GOP shouldn’t learn from this and change (and learn from Obama’s ground game!), but overreacting would also be an error.

    However, I am sorry to say that I feel that the days of retail politics and importance are drawing to a close which is why view this entire process with increasing ennui….but that is the topic for another post.


  360. skilaki says:

    If the GOP promotes anything the resembles amnesty, the GOP is dead. Simple as that.

  361. Polaris says:

    For when the plebs discover that they can vote themselves bread and circuses without limit and that the productive members of the body politic cannot stop them, they will do so, until the state bleeds to death, or in its weakened condition the state succumbs to an invader–the bararians enter Rome

    -Robert Heinlein (To Sail Beyond the Sunset)

    The 2012 Election is over, and the people have spoken. The people have decided to vote themselves free money. Heinlein warns against this as did Tourqueville, Franklin, and others all the way back to Plato.

    We are seeing the end of the American Republic and we are going to go over the fiscal cliff….and compared to that any politics is rather petty. To those that say we can ‘ignore’ the limits or kick the can down the road, we are getting to the point where servicing our debt is becoming one of the largest items of our budget, and that is an item that MUST be paid.

    Too many people fail to realize that value of money is really like kabuki theatre. People think that the dollar (or any currency) as value because they believe it does. Ever time you use money, you are commiting an act of faith that the issuer of that note will honor the value of that note. When people stop believing it (ie. Credit ratings go down or the govt starts openly printing money to cover debt), then money becomes worthless (see Weimar Republic….or Greece).

    To you Pauliacs, don’t think that commodities back currencies are immune either. Any commodity is worth as much as what people are willing to trade for it. A gold bar isn’t very useful by itself…it doesn’t even made a good club (too soft). If I faced a guy with a gun, i’d rather have a gun (and bullet resistant armor) than any number of gold bars.

    I hate to sound apocalyptic, but that’s where I see it. There is an economic collapse that is obvious and much sooner than anyone is willing to guess, but Obama will not (and CAN NOT…it’s not in his nature) to tackle the out of control structure spending that is sending America over the cliff….and the Voters have spoken. “Ignore the oncoming fiscal fire. Feed us our slops.”

    And with that Polaris has set.


  362. middle-of-the-roader says:

    I give it to Polaris for being honest.

    Still, as I did in 2008, I do have to note that sometimes a Cigar is just a Cigar. Take the polls AS A WHOLE for what they are.

    This isn’t 1948 and Truman/Dewey. Polling science has come a long way. And, there are way way way more polls done today than even in the fairly recent past (like the often reference 1980 election).

    If, as in 2008, the average of all polls shows that the electorate is moving one way or another – believe it. Don’t go the UNSKEWED POLLS route and automatically assume that they are biased.

  363. ejness says:

    Thinking this over for a day now, I don’t think we lost to “socialism” or a new, leftist direction for America. I think we simply lost to Obama. Too much of America is still in love with him regardless of his positions or results.

    I strongly believe, had this been some boring, white smuck (I.e. Gore, kerry), we would have crushed.

  364. Dylan says:

    Goodbye Polaris. Have enjoyed your musings over the years. I similarly share your (dire) concern over the fiscal cliff/coming currency collapse and have posted about that concern frequently. Well, the electorate broke it so as the saying goes, they own it.

    At least we can conclusively debunk the “pollimg statuons are busier than I have ever seen them so the GOP candidate must be winning”. That and “ME-2 is in play”.

  365. ejness says:

    And, once again, Ohio matches the National spread. Had it been some generic white guy, Ohio would have been at least +2R.

  366. middle-of-the-roader says:

    Dylan says:”At least we can conclusively debunk the “pollimg statuons are busier than I have ever seen them so the GOP candidate must be winning”. That and “ME-2 is in play”.”

    And, hopefully, the term “fisking the numbers” won’t be seen around these parts very often – if ever – again.

  367. Apologetic California says:

    And for some counterfactuals about the demographic doom.

  368. Tim B says:

    Christie, Jeb, Rubio, Ryan, and maybe Santorum will lead the GOP. Huckabee too if he’s included. Hillary will obviously dominate the Democrats.

  369. Apologetic California says:

    GOP looks set to have almost 300 seats in state lower houses and just 19 state senate seats nationwide (in 2010 GOP gained 700). 100 of those seats came from New Hampshire where the Democrats retook the House.

  370. I hate Statist Clowns says:

    “In caring about democracy mainly or only, the more robust liberty that everyone is entitled to as a matter of his or her human nature is now seriously neglected. It is even argued by some formidable legal scholars that individual rights aren’t natural at all but granted by the government, leaving it indeterminate where that institution gains its authority to grant such rights.

    The result of all this is not all that different from how feudal orders behave.”

  371. elvisisalive says:

    Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal or Marcus Rubio

  372. Tim says:

    I don’t have Anything to do except go home when I get off, today. I guess the Election really is over.

  373. mtvphil says:

    I have done far more lurking than commenting here, but I find myself in agreement with those who believe that we must reach out in creative ways to Latino, AA and Asian voters. Cruz, Rubio and Martinez need to be on Sunday talk shows at every opportunity and we need to feature AA and Asian elected officials who communicate to their demographic. Tough? Yes. Necessary? Absolutely.

    But I also think that 2008 and 2012 are very much about Barack Obama and the cult of personality that surrounds him. I doubt that AAs show up at the same levels in 2016, though we need to reach those who understand the value of conservative principles. No other group would continue to vote for their guy (or gal) if they were as devastated by the policies their guy advocated. No remedy for that, I fear.

    Finally, this election was very much about the triumph of low information and single issue voters. All the outreach and education efforts in the world may not reach those voters. In retrospect, I am not sure anyone could have done much better than Mitt did this time around.

  374. Yolanda says:

    Dick Morris has confidently predicted that there will NOT be a zombie apocalypse, starting today at 3 pm GMT.

  375. Yolanda says:

    Santorum-Akin 2016!!!

  376. AuH2ORepublican says:

    Let’s wait for all the votes to be counted (still lots of uncounted votes, particularly absentees and West Coast votes) before declaring that Romney got fewer votes than McCain. On Thursday morning after the 2004 elections Bush was at like 59 million votes (remember that stupid headline from a London tabloid), and he ended up with over 62 million votes.

  377. Bitterlaw says:

    I see the Pied Piper Polaris left again. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  378. Michael says:

    I will post this every day now.

    Martinez-Ayotte 2016!!!

  379. Bitterlaw says:

    384 – Good thing I watch The Walking Dead. When it comes to zombies – head shots, baby! Oh. I don’t own a gun. Damn.

  380. wait Little Mikey is back?

    oh good morning folks. back to work for me after 2 straight days off. I see the stock market is tanking. what a shock/sarc. anywho, i’m getting ready for the Holidays, too early?

  381. BayernFan says:

    I believe, and said before, that the days of the GOP putting two white guys on its national ticket have to end. It should have been Rubio this time, if only to experiment and see how the voting went with a Hispanic on the ticket,

  382. rdelbov says:

    Sorry folks until the last week or two of the election mainly polls were biased. Until polls went to LV screens like RAS and Gallup they were out of line with what the electoratal outcome was showing. And yes Marist and PPP were clearly junk in the last week or two.

  383. Hunter says:

    It’s not enough put a guy on the ticket to “experiment”…

    Sorry, but that’s not enough…

    If we as a party believe the demographics are changing, which they are, there has to be a wholesale change in our ground game, out reach, communication, etc.

    The stories coming out now about how Obama got the AA vote to INCREASE over 2008 even with high UE is incredible…Especially in OH…

    Reminds me of Bush’s ground game in 2004…

    Very targeted, very specific…

  384. Bitterlaw says:

    As MD said, math does not lie. Either we get Hispanic voters or we lose. Anybody who denies that is probably already stocking up on weapons. Make sure to keep a copy of your dental records in a safe place. No bunker is completely fireproof.

  385. not just that guys but our people have to turnout. the R turnout has been pathetic these last couple Prez elections.