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2016 IA Caucus Polls

Politico has the new polls from Public Policy Polling for the Iowa caucuses in 2016. On the Republican side, nobody gets above 15% among the slew of candidates chosen to be in the poll.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – GOP CAUCUS (PPP)
Mike Huckabee 15%
Marco Rubio 12%
Paul Ryan 12%
Chris Christie 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Rick Santorum 10%
Condoleezza Rice 9%
Rand Paul 5%
Sarah Palin 4%

This poll was done November 3-4 among 470 Republican voters. On the Democratic side, if Hillary runs, she is the clear favorite. Without Hillary, Joe Biden becomes the favorite. If neither of them run, Andrew Cuomo dominates the field.

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS (PPP)
Hillary 58%
Joe Biden 17%
Andrew Cuomo 6%
Elizabeth Warren 3%
Deval Patrick 1%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Martin O’Malley 0%
Mark Warner 0%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS w/o Hillary (PPP)
Joe Biden 40%
Andrew Cuomo 14%
Elizabeth Warren 9%
Martin O’Malley 4%
Deval Patrick 2%
Brian Schweitzer 1%
Mark Warner 1%

PRESIDENT – IOWA – DEM CAUCUS w/o Hillary/Biden (PPP)
Andrew Cuomo 30%
Elizabeth Warren 13%
Deval Patrick 4%
Martin O’Malley 3%
Brian Schweitzer 2%
Mark Warner 2%

This poll was done November 3-4 among 391 Democrats.

Posted by Dave at 4:53 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (217)

217 Responses to “2016 IA Caucus Polls”

  1. Cory says:

    The Democrats don’t have a naturally dominant campaigner, like Obama, waiting in the wings. So, I hope Hillary runs.

    I can’t really picture a Joe Biden Presidential campaign, or, maybe I really just don’t want to…

  2. Joe Six Pack says:

    It is my sincere wish that every single person who voted for, or otherwise supported, Obama-Biden in 2012 be sent back in time to England circa 1347 where they contract bubonic plague and get their proper reward. Joe Six Pack signing off.

  3. Chris Christie says:

    Tied for second and I supposedly have no chance? Muahahhahaha.

  4. Phil says:

    LOL

    No dominant campaigner like Obama in 2016? They don’t need one. They have Obama.

  5. Robbie says:

    Phil

    I know this sounds strange coming from me, but you’re far too pessimistic about the future of the Republican party.

    Obama was and is a unique candidate who was able to achieve outlandish support levels from blacks and Hispanics. But there’s no evidence those groups will vote in massive numbers for other Democrat candidates.

    Would Joe Biden get that kind of support? I doubt it. Would Hillary get that kind of support? I doubt it. Would O’Malley or Cuomo? I doubt it.

    Ont he flip side, I feel very comfortable in saying the next Republican nominee will be accepted much, much better by Hispanics. Without a doubt, the next nominee or VP nominee will be a bilingual speaker.

    Just go down the list. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Brian Sandoval, and Susanna Martinez will be major players and I suspect one or two of them will be the ticket.

  6. bio mom says:

    Below just posted at NRO Corner

    Are Chris Christie and President Obama the new GeorgeW. Bush and Bill Clinton? From Bloomberg:

    Chris Christie, who last year dashed many Republicans’ hopes by turning down pleas to challenge President Barack Obama, says he had one word for Obama during a phone call last night: Congratulations.

    And Republican Mitt Romney, the man he endorsed a full year before the election, raised millions in cash for, stood with at campaign stops across the country and delivered the keynote address for at the party’s convention?

    The New Jersey governor says he sent him an e-mail yesterday.

    “We didn’t have a political strategy discussion. I said, `Congratulations on your win last night, Mr. President,’ and he said, `Thank you,”’ Christie told reporters today at a National Guard Armory in Franklin Township.

  7. Britney says:

    For Christ sake, I’m still in mourning here. I can’t even handle the thought of another election right now. I’m so depressed about what’s happened to the country I love so much. God help us all.

  8. Diogenes says:

    Obama should have lost. We just had a terrible bench due to our annihilation in 2006 and 2008.

    In all respects, whoever was governor of Florida or Texas should’ve been the nominee this year. Unfortunately, those people were Crist and Perry.

    I really wish Perry had been of average intelligence …

  9. Chris Christie says:

    bio mom, your crusade against me is futile!

  10. mtvphil says:

    BO may well be as toxic to Dems in 2016 as W is to Rs. If the economy is mired in either a recession or a “recovery” like what we have had the past 2 to 3 years, he may well be a lightning rod for the frustrations of voters.

  11. Diogenes says:

    My economic estimation is that we continue to have this sh*tty, tepid recovery for about another year before we dip into recession again. It will hit in 2014. What happens afterwards, I am not sure.

    I knew that this recovery would be weak. Financial recoveries always are + Obama is an idiot who pushed bad loans to “green” companies as well. His economic intelligence is a joke.

    But from 2014 onwards? It really depends. I say the House GOP starts preparing for the Bush tax cuts to expire and preparing their messaging so that Obama gets the blame for the consequences.

    It will give us room to lower taxes again later.

  12. Phil says:

    I’m being realistic. Not enough whites as a portion of the electorate. It will be down another 2 to 3 percent in 2016.

    It’s just math.

    Combine that with the D advantage with MSM propaganda and spin – (see Libya coverae or lack of) and we on’t stand a chance.

    Time to face the music.

  13. Diogenes says:

    The GOP still has 2-3 presidential election cycles to fix their standing with minorities. Cyclically, people just get tired of the party in power for 8 years, no matter who’s in charge.

  14. Brandon says:

    Sean Hannity said Thursday he has “evolved” on immigration and now supports a “pathway to citizenship.”

    Hannity told his radio listeners Thursday afternoon that the United States needs to “get rid of the immigration issue altogether.”

    “It’s simple to me to fix it,” Hannity said. “I think you control the border first. You create a pathway for those people that are here — you don’t say you’ve got to go home. And that is a position that I’ve evolved on. Because, you know what, it’s got to be resolved. The majority of people here, if some people have criminal records you can send them home, but if people are here, law-abiding, participating for years, their kids are born here, you know, first secure the border, pathway to citizenship, done.”

    “You can’t let the problem continue — it’s got to stop,” the conservative radio host added.

  15. Diogenes says:

    Wow, Hannity saw the writing on the wall. We may actually get somewhere.

    I

  16. Apologetic California says:

    14, One, tops. One election cycle. We’re underestimating how much more minorities that’ll show up in 2016.

  17. Diogenes says:

    Or we might be overstimating them. 2004 was 79% white, 2008 was 74%, This year was 72%. The last 2 elections a lot of white voters sat home.

  18. MapleSyrup says:

    Nothing new with Hannity. Border first, then citizenship. Nothing to see.

  19. Phil says:

    I don’t buy it that whites just sat home. The fact is, there are just fewer and fewer of us as a percentage of the electorate. It was 90% when Reagan was elected and has dropped EVERY presidential election since then.

    The math just doesn’t add up for us and will get progressively worse. We still will be competitive in midterm elections – for three or four cycles so I guess that’s something.

  20. Diogenes says:

    I’m not white and I vote hardcore Republican. Time to do some outreach. Bush 2000 provided the model.

  21. Brandon says:

    If it’s nothing new, then why did he say he “evolved” on the issue?

  22. Robbie says:

    Phil

    You’re far too pessimistic. I know all about the demographics, but a dynamic figure with a galvanizing message can make demographic assumptions change. My goodness, GWB got 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.

    I think, much to the chagrin of some here, a Bush/Sandoval or a Bush/Martinez ticket (swap Rubio for Bush if you want) would make significant inroads in the growing Hispanic regions. Hispanics can be swayed. They’re not lost just because Romney did a crappy job with them.

  23. Tim V says:

    Virginia store closes for a day to ‘mourn the loss of America’

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/nov/8/virginia-store-closes-day-mourn-loss-america/

    Lyons Jewelers hung up multiple signs on the windows of the shop indicating the shop would not be open for business Wednesday, including one saying the store was closed to “mourn the loss of the America that our forefathers endowed to us,” WDBJ reported.

    “Lyons will reopen tomorrow to continue the fight against a president who seeks my demise” and “Shame on VA & USA” read two other signs

  24. Diogenes says:

    Just be glad that Romney got at least 27%. Once you get into the black range of 11-89, you’re at the point where all the people you socialize with are democrats and they are totally lost to you.

  25. rdelbov says:

    I am looking at a dozen or highly contested house races from 2012. 1st two are KY6 and IN2.

    Barr did great in KY6. He lowered Chandler’s margin in Fayette and Franklin county. He won four rural counties that Chandler had won in 2010. He went from a 1K margin in Madison county (second largest in district) to nearly 6K this year. Barr even won the D leaning new counties to the seat. So even with a more D seat he overcame in 2012. He should be a lifer unless and until he gets the statewide bug.

    IN2’s Walorski just hung on to win. Yes there was a faux liberterian but her 2K margin was certainly less then what folks were looking. Her foe ran up a big margin (21K) in St Joe County. That’s her home county as well but her suburban rural seat area got swamped by South Bend city area. She ran well behind Romney in this seat. My guess would be that she should be able to win in 2014 in this seat. Its favorable to the GOP. The question is will she hustle and work this seat hard enough to hold it in good and bad years. If I don’t see on Fox news that will be a sign she will not be trying to out Bachman Bachman. I suspect she could hold this seat for this decade.

  26. Apologetic California says:

    These demographic assumptions of course precludes the activities of Democrats which would of course, means that they’ll amp up the pandering that would compete with out pandering. But I’m hoping by then that the novelty wears off that no one gives a damn and stop voting for ‘history’.

  27. Apologetic California says:

    *our pandering

  28. Jimmy says:

    We need to be more Moderate for the next four years. We need to, that way we could at least play more for the moderate women voters and Asian Americans.

  29. mtvphil says:

    I get and concur with the desire/need to reach out to minorities. But why can that not be in the spirit of MLK, a color blind, content of character message? Otherwise, it IS pandering.

    I also have to think that after another four years of the O-ness, Jeb might start looking pretty good to lots of us, especially with a smart, capable VP nominee.

  30. rdelbov says:

    Okay here’s the good, bad and ugly on New York house races.

    Chris Gibson–good and IMO very good. No one wanted to make this race for seat in 2010 except Gibson. He won a big upset that year. This year he was the cream of crop IMO in upstate New York. Likely he has a seat for a long time.

    Sorta Good. Chris Collins win. Whew. He lost two rural counties(Orleans and Franklin) and under performed elsewhere but he won. Whew.

    Buerkle lost but by a modest margin. Of course that a Green candidate got 9%. Maffei likely has this seat for the decade.

    Owen won by 5K in CD21. He flopped in the new parts of the seat. His foe ran a real good campaign but Owen’s home area and St Lawrence county(leans D) carried him to another term.

    Nan Hayworth. Won all the surburban counties in 2010. In a more D seat he only won Putman county. We are likely back to the drawing board on this seat in 2014.

  31. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    29.We need to be more Moderate for the next four years. We need to, that way we could at least play more for the moderate women voters and Asian Americans.

    Comment by Jimmy

    Translation~~We need to join the enemy. We can’t out santa claus,~~santa claus.

  32. W.PA Observer says:

    32- Far deeper bench than you’ve got.

  33. Addisonst says:

    Day 2 of mourning in America.

  34. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    32.LOL,Gonna be a long time for a Repub to be potus again…You guys got nothing.

    Comment by Joe Biden

    By 2016 with all the crap obammer wants to do already passed by then, it will be too late for a GOP potus anyway, as the damage will be done, and with boehner’s statement today on obammercare,there is no guts for repealing anything once passed.

  35. rdelbov says:

    I am over mourning. I am looking at what happened in this election. I am looking ahead at 2014 and 2016.

    I certainly hope to fight Obama on the beaches and on the shore with blood, guts, sweat, toil and tears.

  36. Bitterlaw says:

    When are you going to run. IP? You have all the answers. You’re a vet. Now, you could be a man and answer my question or you can be a p*ssy and curse at me.

  37. Addisonst says:

    I’m not thinking about 16. I still looking for people to dig tom dick and harry so we can tunnel out. Stock market action today was worse than yesterday. Started up and closed at low.

  38. rdelbov says:

    PA 12 analysis Kudos to Keith Rothfus. He got hammered in Cambria county where even John Murtha voted against him. He lost that county by 12K.

    He won big in the Pittsburg suburbs, his home area, by a similar margin. He barely lost Beaver and won big in Westmoreland county. I suspect a few bruises were still out there from the Altmire primary.

    This was a sweet win for the GOP.

  39. Bitterlaw says:

    Well. IP*ssy has given up. Enjoy the bunker, defeatist loser. Keep your dental records handy so they can identify you when you join the deadenders and go down in flames.

  40. Diogenes says:

    Got your national analysis ready rdel? I was wondering your insight to this election.

  41. Know Nothing Party says:

    No compromise! Those Irish Papist scum will ruin the country. Become a footnote to history. Join us!

  42. RB says:

    Bitter-The Akin crowd is already gearing up for ‘Joe Miller in Alaska’. I’m sure he’ll add some awful comment to further bury us if he runs and wins the primary.

  43. rdelbov says:

    Dio I need to confront 2012 Romney-Obama. Still to painful. I guess I want to wait for final numbers.

    I don’t want to say something about total votes and who voted until all of the votes are counted. Look at Florida. I think GOP and total turnout was up there. That’s what I see. You can’t look at TX and TN to judge 2012 turnout. Nothing was going on here. More calls were made from TN to Ohio to generate turnout then in this state.

    So I will get to that.

  44. rdelbov says:

    Okay on to AR4 and OK4. Lets me be concise and quick. The GOP stomped in these two seats. In fact GOP freshman romped in AR1 & AR2 this year. I suspect that as long as GOP incumbents are running in OK and AR these seats are locked up the decade.

  45. Emerica says:

    Lame candidates other than Paul.

    Was that thing registered voters I assume..

  46. GA Voter says:

    I feel like the old person. Standing by letting the kid get stung by the bees after I kept telling him not to jab a stick at the nest. The kid is gonna get what he deserves. I am going to sit by and watch. And like a good old person, I will help treat the stings but not without a good old talking to and whipping. Right now, we need to let the Dems make a disaster of the place and then come in ever so slightly and adjust.

    After all, what do I have to show for just now getting my 401K back to 2008 levels? Here we go again, just need to step away and let the kid get stung by the bees.

  47. GA Voter says:

    I heard today that the GOTV effort on the part of the GOP crashed and burned due to their computer program. Did anyone else know of this on election day?

  48. zorkpolitics says:

    What impact might a Romney win have had on the Senate and House races?

    Obama currently leads the popular vote by 2.4%, to win the popular vote Romney needed a shift of 3%. A 3% shift would have netted the Senate seat in ND and 13 House seats (a net gain of 6 instead of the current loss of 7.

    A 3% shift would have swung FL, OH and VA to Romney but he still would have been 4 EV short of winning the Presidency. So it was indeed possible Romney could have won the popular vote and lost the Presidency.

    To win the extra Electoral Votes Romney would have needed one more state. The next closest state was CO and that would have required a popular vote shift of 5% for Romney to win.
    That would have also swung the MT and VA Senate seats to the GOP and another 6 House seats.

    There are of course two ways Romney could have won, either by convincing 2.5% of the voters to switch or encourage Sean Trende “missing” 8 million GOP voters to show up.

  49. RB says:

    The thing I like about AR4 OK4 KY6 and maybe even PA12 is that they should be permanent flips that probably won’t be too competitive even in a good Dem year. One of these years we need to pick off UT4 and WV3

  50. Bitterlaw says:

    RB- We adapt or fail. The exact same arguments against Hispanics were made against the Irish, Italians, Eastern Europeans, Jews and Asians. Blacks used to support the GOP. Nothing is forever. Anybody who says a group is forever locked in place should explain why. I reject that.

  51. GA Voter says:

    As for Joe Biden running, they haven’t created a drug yet to stop his mannerisms and speech. The guy is a crazy loon.

  52. Emerica says:

    Hannity is a doing what the dems want him to now days I see.

    Reminds me of when Shaq used to all Vangundy the Master of Panic.

  53. Bitterlaw says:

    0-100 a/k/a the toothache checks in.

  54. Pitchaboy says:

    Demographics and free money have realigned the country to center left. Obama has beaten us with high and low turnout making a mockery of our GOTV and so called silent majority of socons. The only way R can win 2016 is that the economy totally tanks. Perhaps the 60 million morons will stop blaming Bush and come to their senses. I am not holding my breath.

  55. RB says:

    Bitter-agree, we will have to adapt and I do think there will be an eventual realignment of the party. With Latinos and Asians coming aboard as they become 2nd and 3rd generartion Americans. Hopefully our primary in 2016 will not encompass a 6 month discussion on the 3 Gs and woman’s health care and will instead focus fiscal issues, debt, and energy.

  56. Pitchaboy says:

    Bush won 2004 by decentralizing GOTV. Local church people and neighbors did it. Romney centralized it and a bunch of confused geeks with a bad software program in Boston tried to GOTV in FL, OH, VA and CO.

  57. Pitchaboy says:

    If redistributing had not happened R would have lost the House as well

  58. AuH2ORepublican says:

    #46, Bunu, I thought that Iowa was “Ron Paul Country.” Yet Ron Paul gets 4% against all of those Republicans that you describe as “lame”? You’re going to need to bus in even more Paulistinian cultists so as to finish second at the Ames straw poll.

  59. Addisonst says:

    Btw, how’s everybody’s football team doing? Everybody happy at this point in the season?

  60. GA Voter says:

    Here’s a thought. If the Dems are so great about the social issue gimmes to their voting base, how about implementing a mandatory 6 week holiday for all Americans? That is an idea I could live with!

  61. GA Voter says:

    #60 First and ten, FALCONS! Undefeated!

  62. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    58 redistricting

  63. David says:

    Those of us who are conservative are extremely disappointed and it does hurt deeply – because we love our country and we knew that Romney would govern so much smarter and better than Pres Obama….that being said, we must now pick ourselves up by the bootstraps and get to work to promote the conservative philosophy and educate those around us- at home in our families, in our neighborhoods, at work, at school, and even at church. As a man of faith, I know it takes changing hearts. For me the deterioration of the family is the number one problem (this was the answer George W. Bush gave in a recent interview with Focus on the Family)…I need to show the love of Christ to all…remove bitterness and stand up for what is good and right and holy. Politically , we must embrace those who seem to shun our party and come to common ground….especially the Hispanic/Latino community. No, right now I don’t have specifics and just can only start the conversation with a few suggestions, but we must move in that direction because the electorate will only continue to change in that direction…Perhaps a Rubio-Martinez ticket?…or one of those and some other young, dynamic conservative…Don’t know but if the ticket I mentioned came to fruition and they were able to articulate the conservative philosophy …we might win Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, and even California…we must start to imagine the possibilities now…stay strong fellow conservatives !

  64. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    The minority question is not that important.

    The real question is why could Romney only get 57.7 million votes when McCain got close to 60 million.

    Bush got over 63 million in 2004.

    A marginal improvement on 2008 and Romney is president.

    SOMEONE SAT HOME- THIS IS WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED.

  65. Addisonst says:

    Patfan, the answer is that romney ran a good campaign but was a bad candidate. We need a fiscon like reagan that doesn’t say stupid socon stuff like reagan. Akin and mourdoch destroyed us w women. We have to kick the akin types out. We need them like we need stormfront.

  66. Addisonst says:

    And for those of you who say stick to principles that’s great. What’s your plan to grow the base?

  67. Hunter says:

    Is the truce on or off?…

  68. David says:

    The “Bush” Latino’s stayed home or voted for Obama…and I think some would not vote for a Mormon…those are a couple of reasons…not sure how much of an impact

  69. David says:

    Addisonst
    .see my post in #64…one way is to embrace the Latino community. If Rubio would craft a pathway to citizenship and articulate the conservative philosophy…we can capture the hearts and minds of Lations…they are close tou our philosophy anyway…family oriented

  70. Bitterlaw says:

    The truce ended when Obama won Ohio. Have at it, bitches!

  71. Addisonst says:

    My first principles are to cut half the discretionary costs. A jewish ron paul. That gets the party 3 votes. So I’m open to ideas. More akins and more anti abortion is not a winner.

  72. rdelbov says:

    RB #50

    Redistricting has not quite given the GOP a set majority for 10 years but we can see it from here.

    Currently I count only three solid GOP seats held by Ds—UT4, WV3, GA12 and NC7(if McIntyre holds on).

    I await the 2012 results but I am not sure the Rs hold any Obama 2012 seats. I guess time will tell that? Maybe one or two in CA?

    So I suspect 2014 house races will be open seats along with marginal seats like NH1, NH2, CT5, NY1, NY2, NY21, FL18, FL26, TX23, WA1 and a few stray open seats plus the 4 mentioned above.

    In 2012 we saw the D’s claim seats they should hold onto(in CA & IL) while the Rs did so in AR, NC and OK.

  73. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    #66

    Add

    The reality is for all the talk about “Obama”, the reality is he only got 60.4 million votes.

    In 2012, he was only marginally above McCain 2008 and Kerry 2004.

    Romney’s vote only needed to marginally improve from 2008 to get elected.

    Trende is right. Romney SHOULD have been in the 63-64 million range. Millions of should be voters are somewhere.

    Did evangelicals stay home again?

    This is the first question.

    Latinos come second since I think the numbers are inflated because Obama is black. Minority voting minority.

  74. rdelbov says:

    I lived through 2000.

    Lets count every vote before we start to see who stayed home?

  75. INDIA PAPA 727 says:

    67.And for those of you who say stick to principles that’s great. What’s your plan to grow the base?

    Comment by Addisonst

    By sticking to principles. Watering them down will lose the base.

  76. Addisonst says:

    Ok cutler is a loser but the bear has won 11 of his last 12 starts. Discuss. Let’s start w the vick is better camp.

  77. Emerica says:

    These various outreach programs are poison pills.

    Just campaign on tax cuts, spending cuts as usual and Hispanics or Asians want to vote republican then that’s fine although they probably won’t.

    No reason to go a mission of demographic change that the dems want.

    The immigration plan I posted yesterday that was a stand along for only highly educated tech workers was just fine, but the Democrats rejected that bill already.

  78. David says:

    Addisonst
    I agree we don’t need an Akin spewing silly statements..but we do need to talk about Abortion in a very articulate way…family values (important to Lations and many others) is a draw…it drew me to the Republican party 29 years ago… We need a dynamic conservative who can effectively balance the social, fiscal, and national defense issues and connect with minority groups such as the Hispanics…I can see Rubio or Martinez being able to do that

  79. Emerica says:

    FLASHBACK: Ron Paul: 21% (Iowa), 23% (New Hampshire), 13% (S.C)

    Really think Rand can’t outdo those numbers? just 5% hey?

  80. Diogenes says:

    Don’t exaggerate Pitchaboy. Republicans did themselves no favors these last 4 years with their anti-immigration stances and other silliness. It reminds me of what Pete Wilson did during the 90’s that permanently alienated hispanics. Our social conservatism was also net negative this cycle with Mourdock, Akin, Transvaginal Ultrasounds, etc. being a big part of the problem.

    One of the few things Karl Rove did right was find issues that a majority of Americans agreed but the base of the democratic party couldn’t agree on, and then use those issues to club the dems.

    Partial Birth Abortion, Across-the-board tax cuts, etc.

    The dems did it to us this cycle with the Dream Act, the Equal Pay for woman act, etc. I thought it was all a joke, but the republicans did themselves no favors by playing into the war-on-women narrative or war-on-immigrants narrative.

    To win again, the Republicans need to start winning on the issues literally. There needs to be a new agenda that will galvanize our voters and appeal to minorities. That’s the simple truth of it.

  81. Bitterlaw says:

    Add- I never said Vick is better. I said Cutler is a p*ssy. Totally different issues.

  82. rdelbov says:

    There are perhaps 350K ballots to be counted in Ohio. In that state Mitt will likely received 2.7 million votes when its all said and done.

    McCain got 2.5 million votes in Ohio

    So I am sure who stayed home in that state?

    McCain 3.939 million votes in Florida in 2008. Romney has 4.117 million already with an estimated 300K more to count in that state. Mitt could end up with 300K more votes then McCain.

    Mitt is likely to end up with 1.85 million votes in VA while McCain got 1.726 million in 2008.

    I think we need to let all the votes be counted before we try to decide what happened.

    Lets just say that Ron Paul’s supporters staying home or voting for Johnson did not tip the balance.

  83. Emerica says:

    Republicans don’t need to do any of that garbage.

    And no we don’t need to polarize the white vote either with any particular issue, but even without doing that the white vote is naturally polarizing towards the GOP by just running on bread an butter tax and spending issues.

  84. Diogenes says:

    Partial Birth Abortion Ban*

    On the issue of depressed turnout, when both campaigns are very negative, turnout tends to be generally very depressed.

    Obama couldn’t run on his record so he clubbed Romney. Romney was underfunded compared to Obama. We know that now and honestly we knew in our hearts for a while. If Romney had so much money, he could’ve responded to the Obama ads better, but he had none and stayed silent for too long. Yes, RNC + Superpac money was more but the SuperPacs acocmplished very little other than constantly attack Obama which in turned depressed Obama turnout.

    That being said, I think a lot of blue collar voters just stayed home because they weren’t happy with fat cat Mitt. I think that’s what Sean Trende implied in his analysis.

  85. David says:

    Diogenes
    I agree with most of what you are saying…if we ignore possible big voting blocks…we will continue to loose..this isn’t Ronald Regan’s electorate anymore…I have gone back and forth on the immigration issue…but now believe we have to work something out so that the Latinos, who really do slant more conservative, will trust the Republicans

  86. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    #81

    That’s on the margin.

    Obama only got 60.4 million votes.

    The only thing that’s NOT pathetic about that total is he won.

    Why couldn’t Romney marginally improve McCain’s numbers?

    Was the GOTV problem tacticle?

    There is ZERO way we should lose against some clown in 2012 getting 60 million.

    McCain plus the 3million evangelicals not showing up 2008 equals lanslide.

  87. Ponderer says:

    76 – So let me see if I have this right. we stick to our principles and LOSE with the base. We adapt and the base stays home and we also lose. Am I missing something here.

    BTW does it seem that men seem to have the bigger issue with abortion than women? Why are men even talking about it like they are experts? Why is it the the half of the electorate (women that is. Haven’t met a man who can get pregnant) that would be having abortions, seems to be the ones that support it the most?

  88. Tim says:

    #86:
    Don’t forget the other people of color, as well. For the life of me, I do not understand why the GOP has not already addressed the changing demographics. Why write off such huge blocs of voters?

  89. Diogenes says:

    The economics of the GOP are actually really bad I feel. We were all told Obama was underfunded but he still got a TON of small donations. Not as much as before, but enough to keep up with the republicans and double the money Romney campaign itself raised.

    The GOP is really heavily dependent on large donors which are capped in what they can donate. This makes them depend on super pacs which we all know did nothing this cycle.

    The big donor issue has also wrecked us this cycle. Sheldon Adelson literally kept Newt afloat when he should’ve been out of the race after New Hampshire. This made what should’ve been a quick and easy primary into an extremely expensive one not only for Romney but for the entire GOP brand. It was literally a ridiculous circus.

  90. Emerica says:

    Hank says we don’t have to do shi/t

    Cause you can’t starve us out and you can’t make us run
    Cuz we’re them old boys raised on shotgun
    And we say grace and we say Ma’am
    And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn

    We’re from North California and south Alabam
    And little towns all around this land
    And we can skin a buck; we can run a trot-line
    And a country boy can survive
    Country folks can survive

  91. David says:

    I think some evangelicals did stay home this time…the Mormon issue…I am an evangelical but I DID vote for Romney…I had some, even in my family who did not, though, for that very reason…now I live in Texas, so it did not matter as much…but in Florida, or Ohio, or Virgina if other did this…well ther you go…part of the reason

  92. W.PA Observer says:

    87- Apparently the GOTV in the swing states was a disaster- centralized computer program sent out the wrong links to volunteers, etc.

    After a few days ( I won’t be posting much, already made my hiatus clear- will be back) I found my metaphor for this election’s turnout strategies in the film War Horse. With us as the British Cavalry and Axelrod and co as well, you get the idea. Seems to be going well and then…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=sKUdxkaDoNo#t=112s

  93. Emerica says:

    Not what Hannity says, not what Chris Matthews demands, and none of the Democrats dumbs/ ideas either.

  94. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    #85

    That’s what we need to figure out first.

    That’s infinately more important than the Hispanic question.

    Obama won Ohio withonly a few thousand more votes than McCain 2008.

    That’s not a hispanic problem. That’s all about turnout.

    In a depressed election, the Dems will always be at an advantage because their base is dependent on gov’t.

  95. David says:

    Tim
    You are correct…Latinos, Hispanics, Asians…as I stated in an earlier post…this isn’t Ronald Reagan’s electorate anymore

  96. Diogenes says:

    @89Tim – The primaries are why. Bush was certainly not anti-immigrant. But after the massive deregistration of Republicans during the politically horrid (for us) Bush years, the party became smaller and much more conservative. McCain had to run heavily anti-illegal-immigrant in his last Republican primary. We called him McAmnesty during the 2008 primaries.

    But now I think everyone’s facing reality.

  97. David says:

    And the African American community too,!

  98. W.PA Observer says:

    96- Actually, Ronald Reagan did great with Hispanics and Asians in his electorate. Cleaned up with California Asians as both Governor and President. We assume that “well it’s not Reagan’s electorate”, but even in Reagan’s electorate he did exceptionally well in those target areas.

  99. David says:

    W.PA observer
    You are correct about Reagan winning those…but he also had a heck of a lot more percentage of the Anglo vote

  100. Addisonst says:

    I thought ralph reed and catholics would save the gop. The notion that we pander to these people is absurd. Want to send a message? Dear iowa eff off. You aren’t first

  101. jason says:

    This was posted already I am sure but I am too lazy to check.

    PPP polls were rigged all along….

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/11/08/ppps-polls-were-rigged-all-along/

  102. W.PA Observer says:

    100- Right, but even with those groups larger he’d still have cleaned up. I’m just cautioning against hand-wringing over the assumption that they’re not winnable by conservatives- we used to win them handily even before they were an “emerging target demographic”. Granted Reagan won everywhere- but the point is, it’s not like he ignored Hispanics or Asians either. California Republicans at the time knew how to appeal to a multi-ethnic electorate in their state even when it had a large Dem registration advantage.

  103. David says:

    Addisonst
    We need Ralph Reed, Catholics, and evangelicals (of which I am one of)…if we want conservatism to win…without those groups, it won’t happen…don’t pander, but don’t shun or ignore

  104. David says:

    104
    Agreed

  105. Addisonst says:

    Whoever we run in 16 he cannot be a failed blue state gov.

  106. Emerica says:

    Maine GOP head says he will not seek another term as chairman

    ?Webster also was heavily criticized by Ron Paul supporters for his handling of last winter’s Presidential straw poll — and there are reports that Paul supporters hope to take over leadership of the party.

    Maine….all ur delegates belonz to us

  107. David says:

    107
    Amen to that

  108. W.PA Observer says:

    103- Wow. “Jay Cost is an idiot” what a classless jerk Jensen his. Essentially he said his polling was cooked to his lucky guess that it would be similar to 2008, and that was it. He cooked the sample to what he wanted to see and was fortunate enough for it to look that way. No wonder he blew the Wisconsin recall completely.

  109. Emerica says:

    Brent Tweed will make a fantastic Maine GOP chairman.

  110. Emerica says:

    Can’t wait to see Romney-like candidate attempt steal Arizona, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Louisiana etc next time after we get rid of these corrupt chairman who overtly cheat for him.

  111. Addisonst says:

    What do you do when your best choice is a failed gov of mass? And by far. Saw lots of defending of romney all spring. Romney care was indefensible. That is not what conservatives run on. Suggesting that got one called a plant. The good news is no legacy loser next time and at least until sun bear is 7 and 1.

  112. dylan says:

    What is the original source on how the romney gotv fell apart–if anyone knows?

  113. AuH2ORepublican says:

    Note to self: reflexively oppose Tom Davis of SC and Brent Tweed of ME for any office.

  114. W.PA Observer says:

    114.

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334783.php

    It’s beyond depressing- hence the war horse clip as my metaphor.

  115. AuH2ORepublican says:

    rdel is absolutely correct: there are like ten million votes remaining to be counted, and Romney will surely surpass the 60 million mark.

  116. jack says:

    I warned everyone a week or so before the elections that there was no GOP ground game in Ohio. But I was shouted down by the know-nothings like toledo steve, joe six pack, and csant, who claimed to see GOP “enthusiasm”.

    It is painful to say, but McCain’s campaign was infinitely better than Romney’s. McCain at least was fighting the Bush fatigue, financial meltdown and the Messiah. Romney was up against horrible economy, anemic jobs, and a failed Obama presidency, and still couldn’t cut it.

  117. W.PA Observer says:

    117- the highest number on that I’ve heard is 7 million via one of the RCP guys, and even that may be stretching it as an estimate.

    Sean Trende ?@SeanTrende
    @DouthatNYT @mattyglesias In fact, controlling for increase in voting-age pop, assuming 7M votes out, all groups’ # votes declined.

  118. Diogenes says:

    Reagan won 36% of Hispanics in 1980 but 7% went to the other Republican.

    He won 34% of them in 1984.

    Bush Sr. won 30% in 1988.

    They’ve never given more than a third of their vote to us. I don’t know if even taking immigration off the table gets us anywhere above that either.

    Looks bad …

  119. W.PA Observer says:

    119 – I wonder if McCain’s war record helped alot of the base get over his issues with it (and the Palin pick, though that did some harm in the suburbs). I know a large number of conservatives, particularly working class ones, that will forgive a man a lot if he’s a veteran- particularly one with a record like McCain’s. One of the things that enraged me about the 2008 Obama campaign was their using McCain’s inability to use a computer keyboard as a sign he was out of touch with the times. Along with the awkward half-raised arms (comedians did that) He couldn’t type without pain because the North Vietnamese screwed his hands up and wrecked his shoulders via injury and torture so bad that he has a third arm socket! Damn them for that!

  120. Emerica says:

    Ace of Spades blog covers speaker Fluffy Bunny.

    Boehner: Amnesty? Oh We Can Totally Do Tha

    Boehner offered optimism that his party could come to an agreement with Obama on immigration, a subject that has hurt the GOP with Hispanic voters.
    “This issue has been around far too long,” Boehner said in the ABC interview. “A comprehensive approach is long overdue, and I’m confident that the president, myself, others can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all.”

  121. Diogenes says:

    Well Bush got 44%. It was one of the big reasons he won.

  122. Diogenes says:

    Boarder-state governor or broke. Rick Scott needs to step down and let Rubio become governor in 2010.

  123. W.PA Observer says:

    124- So in short, we got more than one third in 1980 (actually over 43% that didn’t go for Carter that year when you pull Reagan/Anderson), 1984, 2000, and 2004.

  124. Emerica says:

    Boehner has got to go. He’s already pissing me off.

  125. W.PA Observer says:

    127- Must be doing something right then.

  126. jack says:

    If he is pissing you off, he must be doing something right.

  127. Addisonst says:

    Rick scott helped lose fla for mitt and mack. But bad candidates lose anyway. Mitt was a terrible candidate. Bio, annie hall monitor et al. Recognize.

  128. Diogenes says:

    Getting more than 1/3 is good enough for only about 2 more cycles.

    This year, for every 10% of the electorate, the dem gets a 5 point lead off hispanics.

    If we win 1/3, for every 10% of the electorate, the dem gets about a 3.3% lead.

    If we win 45%, for every 10% of the electorate, the dems get about a 1% lead.

    2004 was really the last hoorah for REpublicans. It might have been mitigated a lot if Bush had been more popular and Jeb could run after Obama, but as it is, it looks really, really bad.

    The bad thing is even after the successful presidencies of Reagan and after his amnesty, Hispanics still voted 2 to 1 against us.

    During the height of Republican success, hispanics were still supporting leftist policies (and that was when the cuban american population made up an even larger part of the hispanic population).

    The Gop will have to move a lot leftward, it seems to survive as a national party …

  129. AuH2ORepublican says:

    rdel, re: strongly GOP CDs still held by Dems, in addition to the UT-04 (assuming that Matheson beat Love–there’s still a lot of votes left to count), GA-12, WV-03 and NC-07 (assuming McIntyre survives the recount), I would add Collin Peterson’s MN-07; is in not quite as Republican in presidential as the four you listed, but it’s still a CD that the Dems have no business holding, and will likely cough up when Peterson retires.

    As for GOP-held CDs that voted for Obama in 2012, I think there likely will be a half dozen or more such districts (and not just in CA), although none of them gave Romney
    under

  130. Diogenes says:

    I remember when there was talk about demographic changes in 2004. I listened to Polaris’ kool aid and thought, nah, can’t be that much. I didn’t think it would happen this soon.

  131. AuH2ORepublican says:

    #132, I got cut off, I meant that there probably are no Republicans in CDs that gave Romney under 48% (unless the absentees throw the seat to Dodd).

  132. rdelbov says:

    So far as I can tell and results are coming up Romney had substantial increases in votes in FL, NC, VA, Iowa, CO and OHio. Plus I checked Nevada. Romney got 10 or 15% more votes in these states then McCain.

    Problem is Obama was also up in votes in these states-or maybe he was? Does it really matter if Romney got less votes in NY then McCain did?

    I am not sure I am buying these arguements. When votes actually get counted maybe they will make sense.

  133. Diamond Jim says:

    The failure of Romney’s GOTV system is disgusting. Didn’t they even bother to do a dry run to work out the bugs?

  134. W.PA Observer says:

    131- Depends on if they counted Cubans as Hispanic during the 1980s, not sure if they did or not.

    So I’m hearing more on twitter about the failure of the Orca system (the Centralized GOTV apparatus). Apparently one rumor is that in Wisconsin, the Romney campaign booted the GOTV structure in place (you know, the one Walker built…and erm, won with, in epic fashion) and replaced it with their own. It can’t be true, can it?

    This is the fellow who wrote up the failure on Ace of spades, and is getting quite a few twitter responses from other volunteers confirming his experience. Jake Tapper actually linked to it.

    https://twitter.com/JohnEkdahl

  135. rdelbov says:

    AuH2O

    That sounds right and yes I forgot about MN7.

    I do not mean to suggest that the GOP will not have targets in 2014. Yes those 4 or 5 seats plus our 2012 loses in CA, one or two in IL(maybe) plus NH, NY18, NY21, FL18, FL26, MN8 plus a few more marginal seats.

  136. AuH2ORepublican says:

    #131, the GOP is a lot more conservative now than it was 35 years ago. And your alarmism about how Hispanics will become the majority and keep voting the same way reminds me of what people said about the Irish and Italians 100 years ago.

  137. Michael says:

    Did Walt get re-elected?

  138. Corey says:

    140. Sadly, no.

  139. Emerica says:

    The Irish Catholics gave us 12 years FDR….

    And they would have kept electing him too.

  140. Emerica says:

    You know Romney would have been pushing the same stuff Obama is right now with outright on the republicans.

    At least republicans have the house, and are in the minority they might give real opposition.

  141. AuH2ORepublican says:

    #120, W.PA, there are like 3 million votes out in CA, 1 million in WA, half a million in TX . . . I think it’s got to be like 10 million nationally. In any event, let’s wait a couple of weeks before we say that Romney got fewer votes than McCain in X state.

  142. Stef says:

    I think it’s an interesting but ultimately highly speculative question as to whether someone else besides Romney would have won.

    The linked poll gives us I think the strongest alternative candidate — Huckabee.

    In addition to every state that Romney won I think we can say with confidence that Huckabee would have run ahead of Romney in FL/VA and won those states. He would have run ahead of Romney in IA. You might think he would run worse then Romney up North but remember that Romney basically gave away MI and ultimately probably lost OH because of “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”. If we include IA that’s 254 EV’s and Kasich for VP could have locked up the election.

  143. Emerica says:

    http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/08/15007504-karl-roves-election-debacle-super-pacs-spending-was-nearly-for-naught?lite&ocid=msnhp&pos=2

    “[Karl] Rove’s super PAC, American Crossroads, had a success rate of just 1 percent on $103 million in attack ads — one of the lowest ‘returns on investment’ (ROIs) of any outside spending group in this year’s elections.” (Thanks to David Franke)

  144. Corey says:

    Huckabee would have lost 40 states. But there’s no point in getting into these hypothetical debates.

    Let’s win in 2013 and 2014 and we will have ample time to find the right candidate for 2016.

  145. Diogenes says:

    Huckabee always struck me as the most Reagan-like in terms of favorability. I can’t even think of any way he could be swift-boated. He’s just so congenial.

    But he chose not to run for some reason so there you go.

  146. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    There is an article out that it was the youth vote that saved Obama.

  147. Emerica says:

    California voters who do not pay taxes have voted to raise taxes on those who do!

    Another reason why primaries and low-info voters that attend them are inferior to caucuses.

  148. Michael says:

    @147 absolutely correct. We can’t get more conservative, not the to right philosophy.

    BTW how much did Walt lose by?

  149. Michael says:

    Good night

  150. Addisonst says:

    this wasn’t just romney as bad a choice as he was. this was systemic.

    We lost senate races with both bad candidates and not bad candidates.

    We should have won the sen easily. For get about the moron twins in mo and in.
    How do you lose fla and mt to guys who voted for obamacare? How do you renominate g. allen? I thought thompson would be fine especially against that. He wasnt. Pa is unwinnable against an empty suit. Same in mich.

    you cannot be a majority party when cal ny il mi and pa are off the table to start. You have to figure out how to compete there. And we’ve now proven twice that mushy moron moderates aren’t the answer. That being said we have to tell akin and his supporter gfy.

  151. Addisonst says:

    supporters. or maybe we just have to tell his jockstrap supporter.

  152. Brandon says:

    There had to be an awful GOTV system for us to lose both of the Tester and the Heitkamp races.

  153. Diogenes says:

    @Addisonst – Obama’s ground game was targeted at the swing states. They did not help the dems very much in house races if at all because of the very nature of the targeting. But it did help win the states themselves and help in state-wide races. Straight-ticket minority voters annihilated all our candidates in swing states. We were lucky Heller had a base of support from being a representative already or he would have gone down too.

    That being said, it doesn’t explain plain-state losses. To that, I think the individual candidates ran bad races. Berg was really impersonal wheras Heitkamp was really personable and spent a lot of time retail campaigning.

    It paid off.

    Candidates actually matter.

  154. Diogenes says:

    We have senate seats in IL and PA.

    Republicans can only win them in non-presidential years at this point … and soon maybe not even that.

  155. ac1 says:

    We have to have all Senate seats from states like ND and MT if states the SW is going to be off of the table.

  156. Addisonst says:

    i assume Berg was a decent candidate in a gop state and didn’t state that rape was god’s will or that rape victims could fight off pregnancy.
    Mt too went for mitt a candidate who i presume was palatable.

    Allen should never been allowe to run in va. I don’t know why Mack who had a name was so awful but he lost to somebody worse.

    On top of that we cant pick the lock in blue states where they have terrible candidates. They won CT twice w/ brutal people. Stabenow wins again. We can’t keep brown in office against a horrific candidate.

  157. Diogenes says:

    Blue-state conservatives need to be able to run as social moderates. Aggressive social conservatism poisoned the well to a lot of these voters. It will take a democratic screwup to get them back.

    That much should’ve been obvious in Lincoln Chaffee’s loss. I was surprised he didn’t becmoe an independent when running for re-election in 2006.

  158. GF (Mitt 301 - Zero 237) says:

    151- Michael, according to the WV SoS, Walter Duke, of Delegate district #61, lost by 325 votes (he pulled 47.38%, a respectable showing for having to run in a new district.

    http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/results.aspx?year=2012&eid=13&county=Statewide

  159. GF says:

    Damn it! Old handle came back to haunt me! :-)

  160. Diogenes says:

    reading the comments about people in Romney’s ground game.

    Oh my god. I feel like slitting my wrists. It was so bad.

  161. Brandon says:

    Where did all of that money he raised go then if it wasn’t for a good ground game?

  162. Addisonst says:

    gf outed walt

  163. Diogenes says:

    It went to a ground game. It just crashed and didn’t work. Read the comments at the link W.PA linked in 116.

    Also this article:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57547239/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/

    “Romney and his campaign had gone into the evening confident they had a good path to victory, for emotional and intellectual reasons. The huge and enthusiastic crowds in swing state after swing state in recent weeks – not only for Romney but also for Paul Ryan – bolstered what they believed intellectually: that Obama would not get the kind of turnout he had in 2008.

    As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed – they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn’t reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

    They made three key miscalculations, in part because this race bucked historical trends:

    1. They misread turnout.

    2. Independents. … there just weren’t as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

    3. Undecided voters. Instead, exit polls show Mr. Obama won among people who made up their minds on Election Day and in the few days before the election.”

    So don’t blame Polaris. We were all in our own bubble.

  164. GF says:

    165- Wasn’t hard, Add; I Googled the WV House of Delegates and conducted a Ctrl F search for the name Walt. Turns out that he was the only one!

  165. Addisonst says:

    this undecided breed fascinates me. who are these last minute people? Are there people who really waffle until the get to the polling place? millions of them?

    I literally know none of these people. I know lots of dems. some gops. no undecideds. I guess they were in the luntz group. very reliable that guy too.

  166. ac1 says:

    The incumbent rule is dead for good.

  167. Addisonst says:

    gf we are tunneling out through tom dick and harry. I trust you will cooperate. we are to harass the enemy via escape for the next 4 years.

  168. ac1 says:

    Mitt Romney won St. Charles County 60-39. Todd Akin lost St. Charles County. This county is the northern St Louis suburbs.

  169. Addisonst says:

    akin didn’t just lose missouri. he lost other states. he was the face of the party

  170. Addisonst says:

    and here’s the irony: for all the scaremongering by the left on abortion and banning it, it’s the right that’s clueless.

    Abortion is never ever ever ever going to be banned across this country. There is going to be abortion somewhere someplace.

  171. Diogenes says:

    It wasn’t being pro-life that killed us. It was being pro-moron. Akin should’ve been immediately ejected from the party.

    And I think the incumbent rule counts. It just doesn’t count when an october surprise happens that helps the incumbent.

    Bush was helped by Bin Laden in 2004. Obama was helped by Sandy in 2012.

  172. GF says:

    Add, once we’re out, we’re on our own, and it will be vicious guerilla warfare all the way. I personally am prepared to shoot every 47%er on sight: No quarter for the Marxists!

    I intend to meet up with the other Hedgehoggers at the Ramstead Pub in Piccadilly when all this is over.

  173. Dylan says:

    Walt–your’re in good company. I even think Ron Burgandy got outed with the handle thing.

  174. Addisonst says:

    the problem is that the pro moron come out way too often out of the pro life people. And even if it’s only one, he gets hung up as the face of the party to people that can be manipulated. Patty Murray said she was prepared to drive us off the fiscal cliff. what got played more? her or akin?

    Moreover as idiotic as she is, she doesn’t seem as unglued. Akin and Murdock come off as unhinged. So does Bachmann. So does Paul. You can’t let these people be part of your party any more than you can david duke.

  175. Addisonst says:

    ron burgundy was outed? was he a parody or serious?

  176. Dylan says:

    btw, I think this GOTV epic debacle (and by extension, the bubble that HHR fell into) is a well-known and paradigm example of “group think” and the dangers of that phenomenon. Failure to think OUTSIDE the box is what sunk the Titanic, resulted in the Challenger disaster (this is a KNOWN example of total blinders in the face of a known problem) and 9/11 (twin towers crashing to the ground).

    What we all failed to see, and it is so damned OBVIOUS in hindsight, is that the reason Obama was acting as he was (“big bird” “revenge” angry, all those things that made it seem like he was losing) is because HE KNEW what none of us here could fathom–that he had a secret stealth GOTV machine that was below that radar and could swamp anything we had on our side.

    Wow, I mean just wow. All the signs were there. It was so subtle. Props to Obama for pulling off the heist of the century. the old adage: “when you think you are fooling them, THEY are fooling you” was very much at play.

  177. Dylan says:

    178-Total parody. I actualy liked him.

  178. W.PA Observer says:

    So looking at outstanding ballots for the election- there can’t be more than 200,000 or so in Oregon, there are 600,000 in Washington State, somewhere south of 3 million in California (probably closer to 2.5 million since they’ve been reporting today). Maybe 500-600,000 in Arizona, etc.

    Seems like no more than 5 million at most remains to be counted. We’re going to maybe match the raw vote from 2004, maybe 2 million more- factor in population growth and maybe a lower turnout than 8 years ago. Considering we have a population nationwide of 314.5 million compared to probably 290 million 8 years ago- still a pretty steep drop, particularly compared to 2008.

  179. Addisonst says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w05rilij4tI&feature=youtu.be

    Ok this is why we lost. We cannot have morons like this on our side. This scares human beings away.

  180. Dylan says:

    I mean, we wouldn’t/couldn’t even possibly believe the exit polls that showed this thing was razor tight and/or leaning slightly to Obama. That was not consistant with the paradigm we adapted. I include myself in this, but it is a DAMNED good lesson in life. When something doesn’t seem to make sense, PUSH PUSH PUSH hard for an alternate explanation and whatever is left, however improbable is the truth (I know I botched that exact quote but it’s from Sherlock Holmes)

  181. Addisonst says:

    dylan that’s all possible. or it’s just that romney was a bad candidate. The 2nd bad candidate in a row that we nominated.

  182. Dylan says:

    182 now THAT has got to be a parody.

  183. Addisonst says:

    so who was ron burgundy?

  184. Diogenes says:

    The problem is, the alternate explanation was that Nate Silver and PPP were right and Nate Silver gave us a 90% chance of being annihilated.

  185. Addisonst says:

    i urge everybody to open the link i attached of the michelle bachmann supporter. This is what we are dealing with. this woman is worse than the obamaphone chick.

  186. Dylan says:

    184–I liked Romney. I thought he was fine and would have made an excellent POTUS. Ok, not perfect, but who is? But that’s not the issue for me. Not that there was anything that I could have done about it, but JESUS, we really missed “all the signs.”

  187. Dylan says:

    188–what that lady is is a michael jackson impersonator. Seriously.

  188. Addisonst says:

    sorry dylan. not a parody. part of the aki wing. shes not human and she scares actual human beings. would you vote repub after seeing that?

  189. Diogenes says:

    Romney was ok. At least he won his first debate and got some momentum.

    More than can be said of McCain’s campaign.

    Reading about Orca makes me so frustrated on a deeply visceral level. He had like 300 million to spend and held his fire against Obama for the entire summer … and he came up with this disaster of a turnout?

  190. lisab says:

    i warned polaris that he was a goner if he was wrong about the polls

    AGAIN

    he was so sure he was right he would not listen

  191. Dylan says:

    192—-You gotta think they ran a TON of simulations and had a back up plan. I mean, when I am giving a power point in court, I ALWAYS bring a back-up lap top in case the main one breaks or something. Wow. Just Wow. But it happens. Group think breeds complacency.

    Anyways, I want to continue this discussion tomorrow. Gonna go grab some cocktails with some liberals and figure out what the f just happened. They promised to buy to soothe my pain.

  192. W.PA Observer says:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/08/Orca-How-the-Romney-Campaign-Suppressed-Its-Own-Vote

    My God, for the Orca program- every single volunteer PIN in the state of Colorado did not work. The guys in Boston kept assuring people that “everything was fine elsewhere”.

  193. Addisonst says:

    look romney got inflated b/c his opponents were so weak. Those of us who pointed out that he was a bad candidate were accused of being for the other side.

    You can’t nominate a guy (except nixon) who lost (romney would have been buried had he run again). He was a bad governor who allowed romney care to get through. That was pilloried in the WSJ when it happened.

    He never took the obamacare fight to the people because he couldn’t. He was the architect of obamacare. It was a bad idea for Mass writ large on the federal level.

  194. Addisonst says:

    more frustrating than orca was reading ev turnout here and how stuff was in the bag. I lost 20 buck on colorado b/c of the garbage people posted here.

  195. Diogenes says:

    Your example is not appropraite. Reagan ran for the nomination throughout the 60’s and 70’s. He finally got it in 1980 and the rest was history. Nixon actually thought Reagan was the creepy one.

  196. W.PA Observer says:

    197- no, I think the GOTV failure is pretty damn frustrating. I mean there was apparently no back-up plan, none. Not even the old fashioned–look up the names of people who’d voted and start calling the ones who hadn’t by 5:00.

    ala what Ronald Reagan and John Wayne tell you do.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQixLLwW4tU

    This would have been more effective than what happened, apparently.

  197. Diogenes says:

    I feel like screaming ….

    ” … They also said the system projected every swing state as pink or red.”

    The problem is, when word of this leaks, the GOP brand tanks even more. Nobody heard about how a similar dem system tanked in 2008 because they still won.

    Goddammit … no wonder we got slaughtered.

  198. TedO says:

    Libertarian candidates are killing Republicans in many races across the country. here in Arizona in Districts 1 and 9, if we had the Libertarian voters or a good portion of them we would have won one of them and did much better in the other. Looks like we will lose the 1st to Ann Kirkpatrick and we may eek out a win with Vernon Parker in the 9th. In St. Gaby’s old district, Number 2, McSally is currently leading her replacement Barber b a few hundred votes. No Lib. candidate here though. I am hoping we pull out the 2nd and the 9th! Lots of early ballots still to be counted.

  199. W.PA Observer says:

    “This person to person contact is what counts in elections, it’s been proved since the ballot box was invented. It made the difference in the 1960 presidential election, it’s still true today. With all the TV campaigning, the mass meetings, the newspaper advertising, the electioneering gimics, there is no substitute for down to earth, house to house, person to person contact.” – Ronald Reagan, 1966.

    How the hell did we ever forget this? The Dems didn’t.

  200. TedO says:

    Also, looks like we may have another executive order approving the U.N. policies of gun control. Isn’t that just peachy.

  201. Diogenes says:

    When in doubt, listen to Reagan. ALWAYS.

  202. justsayin' says:

    To the ones that said Romney was a terrible candidate… the thing is he would have been an AWESOME president.

    Also I am so sick of Emerica… Is there anyway we can get him off of this site. If I hear one more thing about Ron Paul I will puke.

  203. ac1 says:

    Romney was the best choice among those that ran. Several people who did not run would have been better. Mitch Daniels being the first example.

  204. W.PA Observer says:

    204- I often think the “Reagan is always right” talk in our party gets overdone, but in issues of politics- damn did the man have elections politics down to simple and extremely effective principles and concepts. Two landslide elections for governor of the nation’s largest state, and 44 and 49 states in two Presidential elections- has there ever been a more effective politician in this country? Other than the 1976 primary, the man never lost a general election in his life- and always in swing territory.

  205. ac1 says:

    182-That was horrible. The next GOP nominee should believe in evolution and civil unions.

  206. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    Will the black/hispanic/young coalition show up for all Dims or just Barry?

  207. skilaki says:

    All this talk of pandering to hispanics by granting amnesty is insane. You honestly believe that they will become Republicans? Reagan granted amnesty and how did that work out? Hell, Lincoln freed the slaves and the GOP was crucial in passing the Civil Rights Act and blacks avoid us like the plague.

    Go ahead and try to pander with any hint of amnesty and watch as even more whites decide the GOP just isn’t worth it.

    30+ years of inactivity and now they are reaping the whirlwind. Businesses needed that cheap labor I guess and as long as the GOP accepted their bribery in the form of campaign donations, they could care less if they were illegal.

    And now the GOP is stuck between a rock and a hard place with illegals. Good luck trying to walk that fine line of not trying to appear too mean to illegals while at the same time not alienating whites.

  208. kl says:

    A couple of my takeaways from election. First, three million fewer GOP showed up and where was this great ground game from GOP. Where was the tea party and evangicals ? I heard one radio one of those three million GOP voters who stayed home and he said Romney not conservative enough. Let’s face it if he represents those three million GOP voters who didn’t show up, no one will ever be the perfect candidate and those voters won’t ever be reliable. Frankly they will continue to stay home and all the calls and GOTV with them won’t work. Another dd thing , the undecideds apparently broke for Obama rather than Romney. You also can’t lose the young vote, Latinos and Asian vote by such huge margins . All Obama had to do was turn out his base to win. He didnlt need the Indys.

  209. kl says:

    The biggest problem I believe for the GOP is a mucher better ground game and must find a way to include other voter blocs without becoming democrat light. Let’s face it we can’t win elections with a D plus 6 or 7

  210. ????? says:

    ???????????????????

  211. patsfaninpittsburgh says:

    Insolvency will hit long before demographics.

  212. jack says:

    “he had a secret stealth GOTV machine that was below that radar and could swamp anything we had on our side.”

    Obama did not have a stealth GOTV machine that was below the radar.

    It was known to anyone who chose not to keep ignoring obvious facts. Like the HHR bubble.

  213. Proud Christian American says:

    I am really Grieved at what is being written on this board concerning Social Issues it was not about Single women or Hispanics but it was about Santa Clause and the Democrats are for giving out more stuff and if the Republicans try to moderate their views on Social Issues like Sodomite Marriage and a woman’s right to murder her own baby and giving illegal aliens who are criminals give them a path to citizenship then the Republican Party has become useless and people like me and the Tea Party will abandon the party in droves and either form a third party of move to deep Red States and push for secession and the party of Lincoln would end up being the Whig Party !!! You cannot win being Democrat Lite you need to stand up and stand strong on principals!!!

  214. Inga said “what a load of crap!” just for the sake of irony, but I’ll refrain