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Poll Roundup in GA-06

This Tuesday we have the primary for the Special Election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District and right now, there is no doubt Democrat Jon Ossoff is going to make the top two. The doubt is whether he hits 505 or not to avoid the runoff against a one of a gaggle of Republicans. Here are the four most recent polls heading into Tuesday.

WHO DATES Ossoff (D) Handel (R) Gray (R) Hill (R) Moody (R)
Opinion Savvy 4/13 42% 21% 11% 11% 9%
WSB/Landmark 4/12-4/13 45% 17% 9% 8% 8%
Revily 4/10-4/12 45% 17% 16% 7% 9%
RRH/DDHQ 4/5-4/10 39% 15% 12% 10% 11%

Posted by Dave at 7:56 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (90)

90 Responses to “Poll Roundup in GA-06”

  1. BayernFan says:

    First

  2. Bitterlaw says:

    Second fiddle

  3. Bitterlaw says:

    My 30,000 foot view is that KS stays red by at least 20 points.

    Breaking News – Big Joe’s plane collides with aircraft piloted by Polaris. No news on survivors. Developing….

  4. Cash Cow TM says:

    4 hoofs on the floor for the new thread.

  5. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt and Mrs. Walt are leaving on a road trip Monday morning for TN to visit son’s inlaws.

    Taking Walt’s car istead of Mrs. Walt’s wreck- damaged one with the duct tape hoping on the read under panels.

    One thing planned is a show at the Grand Ol’ Opry.
    ************************************************
    I am not sure if Cow will be invited to go or not.
    I may have to stay home and water the new grass seeded areas.

  6. PresidentPaul! says:

    normie wants to help free Kekistan but can’t because of ISIS #FreeKekistan

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c24B4X-KWEU&feature=youtu.be

  7. PresidentPaul! says:

    antifa chick that was attacking Trump supports pre-berkley pictures.

    http://i.imgur.com/QUZTsAO.gif

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9jYZz4UwAA510R.jpg

  8. Bitterlaw says:

    Bunu is just going to keep the fake Kekistan crap going until somebody plays along with it.

  9. yihuanghou says:

    ?????????????????

  10. Big Joe says:

    #3, Hey now Bitter, that was my 30,000 foot view. If I dug deeper, I would have.. err who am I kidding, I would still have been off. I did not see the Dem closing to single digits but I won’t complain about it 🙂

    Trump seems to have energized the Dems .. for now.

    Big Joe

  11. Big Joe says:

    I’ve seen several ads. Sen. Perdue is backing Moody and has an ad out saying that Moody is “one of us” while showing Osoff talking to John Lewis. There was another GOP ad showing video of Osoff from his college days acting like Hans Solo.

    Osoff has an ad touting bipartisanship. Seems right for a R heavy district.

    Alyssa Milano is volunteering to drive people to the polls to vote.

    My take is that Osoff needs to hit 50% this time. It will be tough to win a 1-1 battle against any GOP candidate in red GA-6.

    Big Joe

  12. Bitterlaw says:

    Polaris flies at 30,000 feet.

  13. Big Joe says:

    oh …

  14. JC says:

    I suspect that Osoff will get between 42-46% in the first round. As for the GOP, I think Handel has a better than 2/3 odds of getting the nomination. If not, Gray is the only one who could pull off an upset.

    From there, regardless if it’s Handel or Gray, it should be an easy seat to hold. However, I never underestimate the GOP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

    I really hope we don’t have some butt-hurt primary losers who go on to sabotage the nominee by endorsing or campaigning for the democrat. That nonsense has happened too many times already, and has even cost us seats.

  15. Wes says:

    I doubt Ossoff can top low 40s in the first round. It would be concerning if he did. I’m not sold on Handel’s ability to garner votes in the first round after her failures in 2010 and 2014.

  16. NYCmike says:

    Irksome!

    The Obama’s are so totally “for the little people”!

  17. NYCmike says:

    Where are the children? I realize one is in college, so she is on her own. How about the younger one? The Grandmother is solely responsible for her? I guess Barack did the same thing and it worked out for him….

  18. NYCmike says:

    Ossoff – 44.5%
    Republicans – 55.5% (Handel to top)

  19. NYCmike says:

    Actually, I think Ossoff will get lower, thanks to Samuel Jacksons ad.

  20. NYCmike says:

    http://joemiller.us/2017/04/since-trump-start-embracing-obamacares-illegal-subsidies/

    -Let’s see how many read the actual article BEFORE making a comment.

  21. jason says:

    46% is too close for comfort. I hope Ossof gets low’s 40’s at best.

    Handel is a good candidate, and Perdue will support her in the GE.

  22. jason says:

    http://joemiller.us/2017/04/since-trump-start-embracing-obamacares-illegal-subsidies/

    -Let’s see how many read the actual article BEFORE making a comment.”

    Go Broncos.

    (no, I didn’t read the article).

  23. NYCmike says:

    “(no, I didn’t read the article).”

    -No need to write that.

    I assumed correctly.

  24. NYCmike says:

    Hope you are correct about Ossoff.

    Then you and I will be in agreement, ONCE AGAIN!

  25. Chicon says:

    Mike – the Obama’s remain the community organizers they’ve always been. It does appear, though, that the “community” has changed a tad. Used to be inner city Chicago, now Oprah, Geffen, Springsteen, etc..

  26. Wes says:

    Handel last won office in 2006. She flamed out spectacularly in 2010 and 2014.I think Republicans can pick a better candidate.

  27. Sheeple,Jr. says:

    Here is a just released Emerson College Poll of GA CD-6. Ossoff is at 43% and Handel is at 17%, two over Gray.

    http://www.theecps.com/

  28. Sheeple,Jr. says:

    Here is a just released Clout Research Poll of GA CD-6. Ossoff is at 41.3% and Gray is #2 by 1.5% over Handel. The polls are coming briskly today.

    https://www.scribd.com/document/345381103/GA-CD6-Poll-Ballot-Test-Topline-Report-4-17-2017

  29. EML says:

    Handel lost a primary to Nathan Deal by 0.4% in 2010. She would’ve been elected governor had she been able to overcome that miniscule deficit. Hardly a flame out.

  30. EML says:

    Those polls show that there are very few votes left for Ossoff to pick up in the second round. Hard to see how he can get a majority.

  31. Chicon says:

    How is this race scary for the Republicans? How is the only Democrat in the race gonna pick up seven points from the voters of the Republican candidates who don’t make the final?

  32. Phil says:

    When is the run off?

  33. Robbie says:

    Short of a total collapse in Republican turnout tomorrow, GA06 should go to a runoff. Ossoff is a little closer to 50% than I’d like to see, but it’s still a big leap from 45%-ish to 50%.

    As for Handel, I agree with Wes. I wish a different candidate was likely to snag the other runoff spot, but I still think she’ll win with 53%-55% of the runoff vote.

    If she does fall down and lose the runoff, would she be a Republican Martha Coakley?

  34. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    April 17, 2017 at 11:03 am
    When is the run off?

    – June 20, I believe.

  35. Chicon says:

    Robbie – it’s a big leap from 45 to 50 (and these latest polls have Ossoff at 43ish). How does that happen when there are no other democrats in the race?

  36. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt finished doing his taxes at 5:30 this
    morning. Just as his wife was getting upm

    It was an UGLY tax situation. THOUSANDS
    more owed to both feds and State. Walt kept muttering
    “Who do they think I am–Scrooge McDuck? MD?”
    *****************
    They had to be on the road to TN at 6:30 a.m.

    Mrs Walt won’t let Walt or me drive….

  37. JC says:

    I was just going through the senate history in GA, and it’s really surprising just how long the democratic party has had the state locked down.

    The Georgia US senate has had unbroken dem representation since 1873 going all the way to 1981 – a 108 year straight rule.

    Throughout it’s history, GA has only elected 6 Republicans, compared to 34 democrats. Joshua Hill was the earliest in 1867 following the civil war. From then on, dems have had unbroken rule until Mack Mattingly won in 1981. It wasn’t until 1993 the the state started electing Republicans routinely. The last dem senator was Zen Miller, who retired in 2006.

  38. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    April 17, 2017 at 11:24 am
    Robbie – it’s a big leap from 45 to 50 (and these latest polls have Ossoff at 43ish). How does that happen when there are no other democrats in the race?

    – Republican turnout collapses tomorrow. Otherwise, it doesn’t happen.

  39. Mr.Vito says:

    There is another democrat in the race.

  40. NYCmike says:

    Don’t sweat it, Robbie will continue searching for a reason to worry.

  41. NYCmike says:

    Dang it, Mr. Vito with some UNWANTED information….Robbie may be onto something……PANIC!

  42. Robbie says:

    How am I panicking? The race is going to a runoff. The only way it doesn’t is if Republicans, en masse, stay at home tomorrow. That’s not going to happen.

  43. NYCmike says:

    “She flamed out spectacularly….”
    “Handel lost a primary to Nathan Deal by 0.4% in 2010.”

    -For a guy who loves using big, fancy words, I wonder what word Wes would have used if Handel had lost by…..like…..ONE PERCENT, or Heaven FORBID, a really HUGE spread like 1.4%.

    He might have to go the Sarah Palin route, and just re-invent one.

  44. Big Joe says:

    “I was just going through the senate history in GA, and it’s really surprising just how long the democratic party has had the state locked down.”

    Hardly surprising if you know the history and evolution of the Georgia Democratic party. The party was dominated by Dixiecrats who only recently switched over to become Republicans. GA was never a progressive/liberal state, not sure if that’s what you were implying.

    Big Joe

  45. NYCmike says:

    “Walt finished doing his taxes at 5:30 this
    morning.”

    -You do know that April 15/April 18 are around the same time each year.

    Lay off the voles for a couple of weeks, and get your taxes done in March next year!

  46. Big Joe says:

    Handel would not be the strongest candidate for the GOP. Yes, she barely missed out on the Governership, but that was 7 years ago.

    Big Joe

  47. NYCmike says:

    “Handel would not be the strongest candidate for the GOP.”

    -Went through this already:

    While there is a GREY area, especially if the voters are feeling a little MOODY, the Republicans should have a HANDEL on this special election, and be able to climb the HILL to the top.

  48. NYCmike says:

    **GRAY**

  49. JC says:

    @ Robbie

    “If she does fall down and lose the runoff, would she be a Republican Martha Coakley?”

    =====

    No. Not even close. Handel lost the primary battle in 2010 by less than 1%. She would have gotten elected governor easily if she had won the nomination.

    Besides, see my post above. The dem party has a deep history in the state – it is in no way as right leaning as MA is left leaning. Even with it’s rightward lurch since 2000, Republicans still have to work to get elected.

    Martha Coakley gaffed her way to a loss twice in a state that any other dem would have won by double digits.

    It would be like a Republican losing a US senate race in Utah.

  50. JC says:

    @ Big Joe
    “Hardly surprising if you know the history and evolution of the Georgia Democratic party. The party was dominated by Dixiecrats who only recently switched over to become Republicans. GA was never a progressive/liberal state, not sure if that’s what you were implying.”

    ====

    If there’s one thing I’ve learned in the past decade, it’s that there’s no such thing as ‘blue dog’ democrats.

    When the truly important votes come up, they vote in lockstep with their liberal party without failure.

  51. Robbie says:

    Just six days to go until the first round of voting in the French elections. Le Pen and Marcon are drifting downward as Melechon, the ultra liberal, surges.

    Fillon has begun to move up as well. Hopefully, he can pull off a shocker and make the runoff. He’s the conservative in the race, but has been dogged by negative stories about his wife’s job. He spent the week courting Catholics and conservatives who powered him to a surprise win in his party’s primary last December.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/frontrunners-le-pen-macron-hold-rival-paris-rallies-112602033.html

  52. Big Joe says:

    “Blue Dog” democrats can be debated all day. But I’m referring to Dixiecrats and their role throughout the history of the South. They finally joined the Republican party and turned the south into the “Solid South”. Some Dixiecrats joined early, some late. But their ideology remained the same. They were once the core of the Democratic party, but as the parties changed around the early decades of the 1900s, it was the GOP that more closely aligned with their view.

    GA has not lurched rightward since 2000, the ideology of the state has been pretty much the same. If anything, there’s been a slight leftward tick since ’08.

    There’s a large latino population just now coming of voting age, and the population is highly educated. Last year, while the nation ticked righward by a couple of points, GA bucked the trend and went left by a few points.

    Big Joe

  53. Cash Cow TM says:

    NYCMike,

    Yes Walt knows that he has til Tuesday to do taxes.

    Someome scheduled the family to be on a road trip to TN the rest of the week. So had to be done before Mondayat 6 a.m.

  54. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt’s motto is never do today what can be put off til tomorrow.

    You do things early and that is when tbe asteroid hits or something else. Then you are bummed you wasted time doing that chore that turns out not to be important.

  55. Robbie says:

    Cash Cow TM says:
    April 17, 2017 at 12:44 pm
    Walt’s motto is never do today what can be put off til tomorrow.

    – That’s my motto as well!

  56. NYCmike says:

    Robbie has enough to worry about…no need to do something before its due.

  57. SanDiegoCitzen says:

    Trump at 50% approval in the Rasmussen poll.

  58. jason says:

    I would vote for Handel and Fillon.

    Sue me.

  59. Wobbles says:

    Well with the MOE he could be as low as 46%.

    Rounding it down you get 40%, pretty worrisome.

    I blame Bannon and myself.

  60. jason says:

    I think Big Joe is correct that GA has shifted left a few points.

    However, there is no difference between the GA Dems and the national Dems anymore.

    They are all committed leftist ideologues, there are no more blue dogs.

  61. jason says:

    I don’t mean voters, I mean elected officials. I am sure there are probably still some moderate Dem voters in GA, but they are a dying breed.

  62. Big Joe says:

    Jason,

    All elections are now nationalized. Any GOP candidate will be tied to The Donald, any Dem candidate will be tied to Obama/Clinton/Pelosi. Nothing else matters.

    Big Joe

  63. Bitterlaw says:

    I am sure there are probably still some moderate Dem voters in GA, but they are a dying breed.

    Like Tim? He loved Gore, Obama, and Hillary but seemed so moderate.

  64. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News – Real killer of Nicole and Ron found when OJ looks in mirror.

    Hunt for the killer of JEB! 2016 campaign continues.

  65. NYCmike says:

    http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/04/17/how_to_take_over_syria_roman_edition_111188.html

    -Of course, if the United States had stayed in Iraq, this new fight would not be necessary.

    Wes to blame Dubya in 3…2….1…..

  66. JC says:

    “I don’t mean voters, I mean elected officials. I am sure there are probably still some moderate Dem voters in GA, but they are a dying breed.”

    ====

    Exactly.

    There are no moderates among elected dem officials. Sure, there are some who are given permission to vote the way of their conservative state on meaningless votes. But on legislation where it truly counts, they are in lock step with their liberal leadership every time.

    A good example of this is Joe Manchin, who campaigned against Obamacare, then went on to vote in support of it.

    The elected dixiecrat is a myth.

  67. Big Joe says:

    Dixiecrats are now Republicans.. geesh I feel like I’m repeating myself.

    Big Joe

  68. NYCmike says:

    http://legalinsurrection.com/2017/04/morning-joe-democrats-have-forgotten-how-to-win/

    -Good.

    Hopefully, Republicans don’t get cocky, and stick to conservative-oriented legislation, not Obama-lite-type legislation with a 17% approval rating and a leader who keeps the legislation guarded so that representatives can’t see it.

  69. EML says:

    http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2017/04/16/Jay-Cost-As-goes-Kansas-so-goes/stories/201704160103?pgpageversion=pgevoke

    -Jay Cost gives a warning….
    ==================================
    Kinda hard to take that seriously when he doesn’t know the difference between Topeka and Wichita.

  70. Chicon says:

    In his first case at the Supreme Court, Gorsuch asked….Wouldn’t it be easier if we focus on the plain language of the statute? He kept referring the lawyers to the text of the statute.

    Good sign….

  71. SanDiegoCitzen says:

    Meanwhile, that man of the people, who brought hope an change to America — yes, former President Obama, is trying to outdo Trump in living the billionaire lifestyle:

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/17/politics/obama-snaps-photo-of-michelle-yacht/index.html?sr=twCNN041717obama-snaps-photo-of-michelle-yacht0604PMVODtopLink&linkId=36589980

  72. blobbie says:

    Well with the MOE he could be as low as 46%.
    Rounding it down you get 40%, pretty worrisome.
    I blame Bannon and myself.
    ———————————————-

    except … this was a Rasmussen poll, which we all know are notoriously unreliable and skew to the right by a good 15 to 25%

    so the real trump number is more like 3% approval

  73. SanDiegoCitzen says:

    77. The actual voters in November were also notoriously unreliable and skewed to the right. What is a progressive pollster to do?

  74. NYCmike says:

    San Diego,

    There really is no need to post that story about the Obama’s again.

    That was just cruel!

  75. Robbie says:

    Ah, the parody screen name. The ultimate argument winner.

  76. Wes says:

    JC, until the rise of two-party politics in the South, Democrats dominated all states in the region to various degrees and were usually conservative. That began to change circa 1964 when Democrats began to have less room for conservatives, who began shifting to the nascent southern state GOP parties.

    Comparing current politics to the politics of the old Solid South is fallacious because the local southern Democrat Party of yesteryear was vastly different from its current incarnation.

  77. Wes says:

    On the presidential level, Georgia has moved somewhat to the Democrats since 2008 (though they’ve been consistently mired in the mid 40s with no upward trajectory). Overall though, the state has settled into a status quo of GOP dominance with local Democrats because of their dependence on the black community, whose values are not representative of thd state’s political mean, having lost all power as Republicans havd consolidated the lion’s share of the largest political blocs on the state. I would encourage the GAGOP to aggressively woo Latino voters though before Latinos help Dems become competitive in Peachtree poliyics again.

  78. Wes says:

    NYCmike says:
    April 17, 2017 at 2:05 pm
    http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/04/17/how_to_take_over_syria_roman_edition_111188.html

    -Of course, if the United States had stayed in Iraq, this new fight would not be necessary.

    Wes to blame Dubya in 3…2….1…..

    Of course if Bush hadn’t failed utterly in Iraq, then the US might still be there. Feel free to continue to fail to argue on a factual basis though.

  79. Big Joe says:

    “Comparing current politics to the politics of the old Solid South is fallacious because the local southern Democrat Party of yesteryear was vastly different from its current incarnation.”

    Completely agree with this, Wes. It’s why I just shake my head when Republicans say they are the party of Lincoln, or when Dems celebrate Jackson and Jefferson. Of course, the kicker is when today’s Republicans try to tie today’s Democratic party to slavery, segregation, Jim Crow, etc.

    Big Joe

  80. Phil says:

    According to South Korean press reports the Pentagon is sending the Nimitz and Reagan carrier groups into the Sea of Japan by early next week.

    Wait a second. That can’t be true. Isn’t this about the time whoever is president is supposed to send money and food to North Korea to appease the fat, squatty dictator?

    Does this Trump guy not understand that he is supposed to be doing the appeasement shuffle?

  81. Chicon says:

    Hi, Phil. Three carriers is a whole Lotta power in one spot. Add in the planes and other equipment in South Korea and Japan. Those carriers can’t stay there forever, so time is an issue.

  82. Tina says:

    Lets not make fun of kim jung mentalky fat.

  83. Tina says:

    Is blobbie wobbles or wobbly?

  84. randomtoy says:

    ___123___Poll Roundup in GA-06 « The Hedgehog Report___123___

  85. sch says:

    ___123___Poll Roundup in GA-06 « The Hedgehog Report___123___