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Ossoff Leads Handel By 0.3% in GA

Opinion Savvy is out with their look at the election in Georgia and it shows the two candidates a mere 0.3% apart.

US HOUSE – GEORGIA – CD6 RUNOFF (OS)
Jon Ossoff (D) 49.7%
Karen Handel (R) 49.4%

This poll was done June 14th among 537 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:33 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (408)

408 Responses to “Ossoff Leads Handel By 0.3% in GA”

  1. Redmen4ever says:

    When 93 million people are killed per day, polling numbers can change very quickly.

  2. Phil says:

    Just not buying into Morning Joe’s 4-6 point Ossoff lead.

    It’s Morning Joe. Enough said.

  3. I support Donald Trump says:

    I believe democrats are deflated after the massacre that happened this week. I don’t think that democrats will show en mass to vote for Offsoff.

  4. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Ralph Reed is working GA-6 for Karen Handel.
    He was a master in getting faithful Christians to become Republicans in the 1990’s. He says that North Fulton County is full of the faithful and his group has worked really hard to get them to the polls.
    As for Joe Scarborough and the Republican insiders who spell doom for Handel, they did likewise in the recent Nebraska and Montana Congressional races.
    In the April primary, Ossoff(D) received 19,000 early Dem. votes. In the run-off, it has increased to a mere 29,000.
    On the other hand, there were 17,000 GOP votes in April and now 47,000.

  5. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Mr. Wissing, here is a new Virginia Governor’s race poll for posting:

    http://harperpolling.com/polls/virginia-governor-general-election-poll-29364866

    All tied at 46%.

  6. Robbie says:

    Trauma surgeon said when Scalise arrived he was in critical condition with an imminent risk of death. Wow!

  7. Robbie says:

    Sheeple, Jr. says:
    June 16, 2017 at 3:19 pm

    As for Joe Scarborough and the Republican insiders who spell doom for Handel, they did likewise in the recent Nebraska and Montana Congressional races.

    – They did spell doom for Estes or Gianforte. Both entered election day as favorites to win although it was noted both were engaged in much closer races than the ones which took place in November for Pompeo and Zinke.

  8. Robbie says:

    Correctio to 7

    They did NOT spell doom for Estes or Gianforte.

  9. TWo144 says:

    Since the mods over @ RRH are properly classified as cucks (I don’t use that term lightly)…

    EML,

    I’m guessing you’re Upstater?

    Nice spotting the resurfacing of MD. Pretty sure you can guess who I am based on my posts.

    Wes,

    Heading down to support your gal Handel in GA on Sunday. Here’s hoping.

  10. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    &&*
    WRONG!! GOP insiders leaked polling that Estes in NE had only a 1-2 pt. lead and Gianforte in MT was 2-4 ahead.

  11. Chicon says:

    Question…..How is Rasmussen getting numbers so different than those of the rest of the polling community?

  12. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil
    In the April primary in GA-6, the Dems. received about 68% of the early vote, yet received about 49% of the overall vote.

  13. Chicon says:

    Still think the Republican loses the GA race in a sqeaker.

  14. Wes says:

    I think until this week, Ossoff was the clear frontrunner for the seat. The attack on the baseball game along with revelations about threats against and suspicious packages sent to Handel campaign offices has, however, shifted the dynamic of the race. Now I believe Handel is closing and has at least an even money chance to win.

    That would tremendously deflate the Dems in their recruitment efforts.

  15. JC says:

    Trump’s approval rating hit 50%

    I really hope we see a massive backlash against dems. And not even for the reason’s that I used to hope for. It’s not political anymore. The democratic party is now an enemy of the constitution. And if they don’t learn to moderate and push back against the radicals who’ve taken over their party, I believe that violence will be inevitable.

    The dem party, as it stands today, needs to die. Somewhere along the last 8 years they passed the rubicon and are now actively attempting to subvert free elections and instigate insurrection against anyone who stands in their way.

    They absolutely refuse to recognize any other power than their own. The instant they lose a political battle or election, they begin rioting within hours and start de-legitimization campaigns against their opposition. They use the bureaucratic state and activist judges to enforce their will over voters. They actively try to suppress opposing opinions and try to silence any opposition anywhere – often with violence and intimidation. They, through collusion with the media, demonize and DEHUMANIZE their opposition as evil monsters who need to be vanquished.

    Since the moment Trump won, they started breaking windows and burning cars within HOURS of the election. They tried to game the electoral college by threatening electors. They went from trying to impeach Trump for; being a russian spy – to colluding with russians – to members of his campaign colluding with russians – to anyone he’s ever met colluding with russians – to Jeff Sessions colluding with Russians – to trying to end a non-existent investigation on him – and now to ‘obstructing justice’ on an investigation in which he had legal authority end anyway (but didn’t).

    We all know why Meuller is there. Their many attempts at impeachment failed so now they are trying to find a ‘process crime’ to justify impeachment if the dems retake the house. After all, why do you think this ‘special counsel’ just happens to last for two years?

    The left has total control over the media and pop culture in this country (and a large segment of education too). This is dangerous. This means that their supporters have bias confirmation virtually anywhere they look – hollywood, “news” media, universities, ect. Without anyone ever challenging their views, their opinions get more extreme and they begin to lose focus on reality. This is how people get brainwashed. This is how you get grown adults who think there are 36 genders. This is how you get ‘the tolerance crowd’ advocating for segregation and penalties against people they’ve deemed ‘deplorable’.

    The dems need a backlash so extreme that rational minds regain control of the party and vanquish the radical elements within it. Because if they don’t, and they manage to trick enough people to regain enough power to overt their will over dissenters, the people will take the only option left to secure their rights and freedom.

    Regardless of what happens, it will end badly for the left, either at the ballot box or by a civil war they so desperately want. I just hope it’s the first option.

  16. Wes says:

    Dems attacked at least one GOP campaign office here in NC last year. That had the effect of solidifying the GOP vote and saving the members of the GOP ticket other than Pat McCrory.

  17. Robbie says:

    Sheeple, Jr. says:
    June 16, 2017 at 3:44 pm
    &&*
    WRONG!! GOP insiders leaked polling that Estes in NE had only a 1-2 pt. lead and Gianforte in MT was 2-4 ahead.

    – I would consider predicting doom suggesting they were going to lose, but we can agree to disagree on this point.

  18. Chicon says:

    I hope you’re right, Wes. You often are. Would be a demoralizing loss for the lefties.

  19. Phil says:

    Yeah, numbers look better early voting than early voting numbers in first round. Of course, there are a significantly higher number o early voters this time.

    My guess is Handel prevails 51-49. Early numbers would indicate she actually wins by three or four but I’m pretty sure those early numbers are up because more Republicans are voting earlier this time than choose to vote election day.

    In other words, Ossoff won’t win early voting by nearly as much as last time but Republicans will not win election day by as much as last time.

  20. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil and Wes
    So far in the GA-6 run-off, the early voting mimics last November,in which Trump prevailed in the district by 1.5% and Price by 20%.
    Handel was not a big Trump supporter so she should get the Republican undervoters and Clinton last November.
    I see that Robbie is into his Debbie Downer mold. Has MJ ever been right?

  21. Wes says:

    I wouldn’t call it that way if I didn’t feel it, Chicon. I’ve been among the least enamored posters of Handel’s campaign since she won. I genuinely feel outside events are conspiring to give her at least a chance at victory–something I felt was slipping away till earlier this week.

  22. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    June 16, 2017 at 3:47 pm
    Question…..How is Rasmussen getting numbers so different than those of the rest of the polling community?

    – For starters, it is a robo pollster. There is plenty of debate about the accuracy of robo pollsters. I have been a noted critic of them for years in this forum.

    Second, it has been suggested Rasmussen polling is less likely to contact non-white respondents due to economic reasons. In 2014, Nate Silver noted this and suggested their polling was “whiter” than the voting population.

    Third and as a result of the second issue, Rasmussen developed an online panel that was supposed to supplement its difficulties reaching minorities. The question becomes how do the minorities know to opt in to these online panels?

  23. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil,Wes,Hugh,Robbie and Jonesey
    Right now with the early voting data in GA-6, if you give Ossoff(D) 95% of the Dem. vote,70% of the Other and 15% of the GOP vote, he is up 55%-45%, or about 12,000 votes.

  24. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #17-Robbie
    Why do you think the media was all over the NE and MT congressional races? Usually such races are a sleeper outside of the affected district.
    The answer is that the media felt that there was a meaningful chance that the Democrat candidates would score a win.

  25. Wes says:

    For the record, I’m now moving my ranking from Lean D Pickup to Tossup.

  26. Chicon says:

    Sheep let – is 70% of the Other category going democratic a typical number in that area?

  27. Robbie says:

    My guess is Ossoff wins narrowly. He’s led the polls and he’s going up against a rather mediocre candidate. On top of that, Democrats have been energized by this race from the start.

    As for the early vote, my caveat to the numbers would be the polling has consistently shown a good numbers of Republican voters crossing over to support Ossoff.

    Finally, I’m unsure how much the shooting will factor into the race, especially since early voting is part of the process. Frankly, I think early voting saved Gianforte from his body slam.

    I think it’s a 1 point race and I’d rather be Ossoff than Handel.

  28. Chicon says:

    Meant Sheeple, darn autocorrect.

  29. Robbie says:

    Sheeple, Jr. says:
    June 16, 2017 at 4:03 pm
    #17-Robbie
    Why do you think the media was all over the NE and MT congressional races? Usually such races are a sleeper outside of the affected district.
    The answer is that the media felt that there was a meaningful chance that the Democrat candidates would score a win

    – The reason those races were close is due almost entirely to Trump. His unpopularity motived and energized demoralized Democrats and deflated, somewhat, Republicans. On top of that, Estes and Gianforte were hardly great candidates.

  30. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #26- ChiCon
    No,but the percentages I used were from the breakdown of the early vote in the GA-6 April primary,which,I believe is a worse case scenario for Handel.

  31. Phil says:

    When it comes to congressional elections I never bet against Wes’ analysis of a congressional race. He has yet to miss on a race in his home state and amazingly accurate about congressional elections in general. For example, he posted six months prior to the Indiana senate race that Young was an excellent candidate and would beat Bayh comfortably. That was at a time Silver had Bayh at a 98 percent and the polls showed Bayh winning consistently by double digits.

    Yeah, I agree with Wes on this one. Very close race with Handel closing fast and now a better than even chance to win.

  32. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #29
    I agree with both your reasons.

  33. Jonesy says:

    31. I agree Phil. Wes is the man.

    I wish he could Tutor Robbie, who has missed every race in the last year.

  34. Jonesy says:

    Phil, AP puts out a poll that shows a D+13. Did they not learn their lesson in 2016?

  35. Phil says:

    Typical AP.

    Agenda polls.

  36. JC says:

    Look at early votes. The numbers don’t lie.

    I remember arguing for weeks on PredictIt that Trump was going to win NC based on the early votes, and everyone said I was wrong. They pointed at poll after poll showing Hillary with a 3-5 point lead (I’m not sure Trump lead a single one going into the election).

    I pointed out the huge increases in GOP ballots compared to the last election, and more importantly the demographic breakdown of the votes (whites were 20% up, blacks were 10% down). Didn’t matter to them. I was a shill who ignored all the unfavorable polls. They couldn’t wait to take my money.

    I made nearly two grand on the NC market 🙂

  37. JC says:

    I also was one of the few people arguing that Trump had a descent shot at taking Michigan as well based on the EV numbers that no one was even bothering to look at. I even made a post about it on ElectionAtlas, to much ridicule: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250659.msg5369785#msg5369785

    MY point is, EV numbers are a very good indicator as to where the race is heading. And right now things seem good for Handel.

  38. Jonesy says:

    Good to hear JC. I am sure Robbie was the first one to call you a schill on NC. Because Politico and the NYT told him so

    Of course Robbie missed every swing state and said Hillary would gather 370 EV’s in 2016.

  39. Jonesy says:

    JC, when Hillary lost the primary to the Marxist, I knew something was up. Penn was one I never was hopeful on, the Philly vote always rescued the Dems.

  40. Wes says:

    JC, go look at the archives from the end of last year’s cycle.

    Upon conclusion of NC early voting, I said the numbers indicated a Trump victory of roughly three points, a Burr victory of five to six, and a tossup between McCrory and Cooper in this state.

    Trump won 50-47; Burr won 51-45; Cooper beat McCrory by .2. You weren’t the only with an accurate reading of NC voting.

  41. Hugh says:

    23. Kind of a useless comment. If the dem was a little less of a sanders type of progressive I would still doubt those percentages.

  42. JC says:

    @39 Jonesy

    PA… I still can’t believe we pulled off PA.

    Election night was glorious.

  43. NYCmike says:

    “– You’re so far up Trump’s rear end you’re poking out of his mouth.”

    -Robbie,

    Where am I, up the arse, or on the groin? I need to get home tonight, and I don’t want to type in the wrong coordinates.

  44. Phil says:

    Last day of early voting in Ga 6?

    Should be interesting to see how the last day went. Might even offer a clue as to effect of shooting if any.

  45. Jonesy says:

    I am sure Robbie picked Feingold to win also

  46. NYCmike says:

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/338158-pro-trump-vandals-alter-highway-sign-to-read-crooked-hillary

    -The Pride of Long Island!

    Robbie to say the campaign is over in 3….2….1…..

  47. NYCmike says:

    Grammar-school NYCmike:

    The only thing Robbie picks is winners!

    Pick me a winner! Pick me a winner!

  48. biomom says:

    Silly to report poll numbers to the decimal point level and then say someone leads by 0.3%. Statistically insignificant difference. And measurements cannot be made that accurately not even in rocket science which polling surely is not.

  49. Jonesy says:

    Very good News. Scalise doctors say he is still critical, but will recover.

  50. Jonesy says:

    After the 2015 Kentucky Guv race, I told myself I would not believe MSM polling anymore.

  51. Jonesy says:

    Republicans on the Hill, rumbling that Sessions should appoint a SP for Loretta Lynch?

    Are they showing a spine, or did Paul Ryan buy a new pair of Skinny Jeans?

  52. Hugh says:

    52 yes a choose a partisan rep hack to invest and watch how the dems treat that person. It would show the lunacy of all of this

  53. JC says:

    NJ dem strategist launches #huntRepublicans and #HuntRepunlicanCongressman hashtags.

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/267744/

    Do I even need to bother with “If a republican did it…”?

    And of course the guy projects onto the right what the left does. You can’t reason with these people.

    Assassination plays. Insane which hunts created out of thin air. Propagandist masquerading as news organizations, trying to convince the population that the election was stolen.

    As I said, at some point within the last 8 years the dems have passed the rubicon of insanity. The country cannot survive when one of the two major parties willfully ignore elections and lives by a different set of rules. Something’s gotta give.

    Everyone needs to read ‘The Flight 93 Election’.

  54. Jonesy says:

    Hugh, what worries me, is that too many Republicans in DC still believe the old media. After 2016, you would think these jellyfish would realize the Wash Post is a joke outside the Beltway. Owned by dweeb Bezos of Amazon

  55. Jonesy says:

    JC, the MSM does not care anymore. They are all in.

  56. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Whatever Trump’s faults, which are legion, it is a relief his pathetic predecessor is gone.

    “Warmbier also revealed he and his wife were told by Obama administration officials not to hang ribbons representing Otto’s captivity in their community because it would have been offensive to North Korean officials.”

  57. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    14. Totally agree with Wes’s comments on the Georgia special election — Handel now has a chance of pulling off a win. Also agree the attack on at the baseball game is having an impact, and believe it may also be the reason that Trump hit 50% in Rasmussen again.

  58. NYCmike says:

    Schumer wants meeting for all of the Senate on healthcare…….if Republicans even think about it……

  59. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    All polls have their own unique methodology. The only way to judge their worth is whether they have a good track record compared with actual election results.

    Think that in the current circumstances a robo poll may be more accurate than a telephone poll. Trump supporters are not going to want to tell an anonymous live person over the telephone that that they support Trump.

  60. Jonesy says:

    Shooter had a hit list on body. Mo Brooks, Trent Franks etc…

    Of course his wife never saw anything unusual

  61. Jonesy says:

    Was this posted already?

    Harris poll- Va Gov

    Gillespie 46%
    Northam 46%

  62. Todd McCain says:

    Robbie is just so positive!

  63. Phil says:

    Fact is, had the two capital police not been there to shoot it out with this guy, he would have gotten another half dozen Republicans before law enforcement arrived at the ball field. Congressmen were unarmed and sitting ducks. It would have been a killing field. Take out half a dozen members and you have eliminated like three percent of the Republican caucus.

  64. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The Washington Post ran a story of whether Gianforte won or lost votes after assaulting the trespassing reporter. The results were inconclusive

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/05/26/what-effect-did-gianfortes-alleged-assault-have-on-the-vote-its-extremely-hard-to-say/?utm_term=.04c1e75e909e

    Gianforte, even without the assault, was a bad candidate, who had lost his previous race two years before. He won this time in part because the Democrats nominated a worse candidate.

    The Achilles heel for the Democrats is the Sanders faction wants to take over the party, and is going to push the party to nominate fringe candidates, instead of more moderate ones who can win. It may prevent them from obtaining a House majority in 2018.

  65. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    63. “Robbie is just so positive!”

    It is just an act. He enjoys the abuse. He has a closet full of Trump “Make America Great” shirts at home.

  66. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    64. Surprised none of the congress members were armed at the baseball field. Perhaps they might want to spend a bit more time at the range training, as well as playing baseball.

  67. Robbie says:

    Uber-trumpy Jonestown Jonesy seems to have an odd interest in my comments here.

  68. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    June 16, 2017 at 5:41 pm
    Robbie is just so positive!

    – I guess I just need to look at Rasmussen and listen to only Rush, Hannity, and Ingraham. Then I’ll have the unbiased viewpoint.

  69. Todd McCain says:

    No one said that. I rarely listen to any of them, but your negativity gets old….

  70. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    June 16, 2017 at 5:57 pm
    63. “Robbie is just so positive!”
    It is just an act. He enjoys the abuse. He has a closet full of Trump “Make America Great” shirts at home.

    – Hardly. I had the same things said to me in 2006 when the HHR comment section was sure Rove’s GOTV program was going to save the House and Senate. And in 2008, I was assured by the HHR comment section there was no way Obama could win. The delbov curve was even created just to prove the point.

  71. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    June 16, 2017 at 6:13 pm
    No one said that. I rarely listen to any of them, but your negativity gets old….

    – And the Kool-Aid that gets drunk here by some of the regulars gets old with me as well.

  72. Robbie says:

    Looks like Tina has her candidate!

    Paul Nehlen Launches Another Bid Against Anti-Trump Speaker Paul Ryan

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/06/16/paul-nehlen-launches-another-bid-against-anti-trump-speaker-paul-ryan/

  73. Todd McCain says:

    I hate to remind that a lot of people looked like absolute fools on this blog after election night….many of them don’t even post anymore.

  74. NYCmike says:

    “I hate to remind that a lot of people looked like absolute fools…”

    -No worries, it doesn’t get old!

    How y’all doing, MD, “CG”, Author, CCCP-101%sure-Cory

  75. Jonesy says:

    Tinfoil Robbie. So sad

  76. Jonesy says:

    Mike. Cory was better than Robbie on the 2016 prediction. He gave Hillary 341 ev’s .

    Reynolds Wrap Wobbie went with 370 for thunder thighs

  77. NYCmike says:

    #HookLine&Sinker for the mainstream media

  78. Tina says:

    Any conspiracy theiries re muh russian from the loon?

  79. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is another poll on the GA-6 race. It shows it very close with Ossoff(D) having a 1.7% lead.

    https://twitter.com/wsbtv

  80. Jonesy says:

    Sheeple another bogus tv station poll?

  81. Tina says:

    Per reports, the shooter carried a kill list with all r names.

  82. Tina says:

    Kazowitz and Sekolu are doing great jobs as president trump atttorney.

    His tweet today, awesome.

  83. Phil says:

    I’d feel better about Georgia 6th if I saw at least one poll with Republicans leading. Of course, they are all either tied or well within the margin of error so I guess it’s just a matter of turnout.

    At any rate, morning Joe is full of it as usual.

  84. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Jonesey:
    Probably not bogus, but Ossoff’s(D) lead in this pollster’s poll went down from last week.
    Also, it has Ossoff receiving almost 16% of the GOP Vote. If Ossoff receives over 15% of the GOP vote,he wins. If he receives under 12% of the GOP vote, he loses. The battle will be if the GOP vote to Ossoff falls between 12-15%.
    The interesting and,I believe, incorrect data point is that the early vote,favorable to Ossoff, will consist of nearly 60% of the total vote.IMHO, the election day vote will be greater than the early vote.

  85. Todd McCain says:

    She’s got a shot and these polls have been wrong before……LOLOLOL!!!!!

    Early vote looks good.

  86. Phil says:

    Jonesy, what were the numbers of this poll during their last polling?

  87. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil #84
    It is frustrating, but last November, I never saw The Donald lead in any polls in FL,MI,NC, PA or WI.
    Have faith ,brother! #86 is spot-on.

  88. Todd McCain says:

    I always liked MD, but he got very dismissive and condescending when I stated that Trump had a shot at PA.

  89. Tina says:

    Mike joe scarfarce has his sources, phil.

  90. Tina says:

    I think trump,takes florida by a larger margin today. He has the cuban, rubio vote more locked up. Plus, rs have netted 97k in the registration numbers.

  91. JC says:

    Mike. Cory was better than Robbie on the 2016 prediction. He gave Hillary 341 ev’s .

    Reynolds Wrap Wobbie went with 370 for thunder thighs
    ——————-

    All of those projection contests were fun. I remember more people were putting Hillary over 400EV than giving Donald the win.

    I actually won the contest at Race42016. Called everything correctly except NV, NH, and MI (although I did specify that if there was a darkhorse it would be MI).

    OT: Does anyone know if Race42016 is coming back?

  92. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    June 16, 2017 at 6:34 pm
    “I hate to remind that a lot of people looked like absolute fools…”

    -No worries, it doesn’t get old!

    How y’all doing, MD, “CG”, Author, CCCP-101%sure-Cory

    – I got it very wrong as well. If I can dish it, I can take it.

  93. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    June 16, 2017 at 7:05 pm
    Any conspiracy theiries re muh russian from the loon?

    – You’re the one who marinates in conspiracies so you tell us.

  94. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 16, 2017 at 6:40 pm
    Tinfoil Robbie. So sad

    – I see Jonesy is going with the “I’m rubber, you’re glue” game plan.

  95. Robbie says:

    Uh oh! Trouble is paradise. Ann Coulter goes on a rant about Trump. I guess love is dead.

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/coulter-on-trump-this-jackass-is-really-ticking-me-off/

  96. Tina says:

    Drat rottie.

  97. Trump says:

    Robbie the retard is not an act, he really is a rabid spite and bile hater whose brain has been marinated to goop through nonstop Jeb cocsucking.

  98. Chicon says:

    One hondo!

  99. Chicon says:

    Suck it, Diamond Jim.

  100. wvally says:

    What’s up hedgehoggers. Been crazy busy at work. My boss quit at a bad time and it’s all on my plate. If I pull off fixing a mess a big promotion awaits. Wish me luck.

    As for the last few weeks of politics–friggin nuts, as per usual.

  101. Tina says:

    Good luck wvally.

  102. Bitterlaw says:

    PA… I still can’t believe we pulled off PA.

    I can. I said that it was odd that Hillary and Obama were spending much of their time In Philadelphia and the suburbs that last few days before the election. If she was winning PA, she would have been somewhere else.

  103. wvally says:

    Thx Tina : )

  104. Tina says:

    I knew we have fl, nc, oh, and iowa.

  105. BRENT says:

    handel will win this race by 3-4 pts imo

  106. Tina says:

    Good call, bl, on pa.

  107. Phil says:

    Final Ga 6 early vote numbers?

  108. Chicon says:

    I was pretty sure Trump would win Wyoming.

  109. Chicon says:

    And North Dakota.

  110. Chicon says:

    I am a seer of things……

  111. Chicon says:

    Navy destroyer collides with a cargo ship. Seven sailers missing.

  112. Tina says:

    My ac has 16 seers.

  113. DW says:

    Scalise shooter was carrying a written list of Republican representatives.

  114. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE

    “Teen bandit arrested for selling stolen cows at auction…”

    Ought to give him the death penalty.

  115. Hugh says:

    Looks like early vote numbers are pretty similar percentagewise to 2016 with less young voters. I smell a comfortable win.

  116. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil,Hugh,Robbie,Wes amd Jonesey:
    Here are the final* early voting numbers for the GA CD-6 race:
    TOTAL VOTES CAST- 140,000*
    ——————————-
    Other- 59,000(42.1%)
    GOP- 51,000(36.5%)
    Dem.- 30,000(21.4%)
    * There may be some additional absentee ballot votes added to the Total before election day.

    #117- Hugh- I think you are correct.
    Lastly, Nat Silver has Ossoff(D) winning 50.5%- 49.5%. Head of a pin!

  117. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is the comparison chart between last November’s early and Tuesday’s run-off vote in GA CD-6:

    http://www.electproject.org/

  118. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is Nate Cohn’s take on the GA CD-6 race:

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn

    Maybe some of you can decipher his encripted tweets and report back.
    All I see in one of the charts is how the primary round was 41%(D) and 41%(R). The (R) percentage has remained at 41% and the (D) percentage has fallen to 30% in the run-off.

  119. Bitterlaw says:

    It was sad to see MD has resurfaced as MaxwellsDemon at RRH. I expected better from an A-hole.

  120. Wes says:

    What will ultimately determine this race’s outcome is how well Handel can hold her GOP base. If Republicans stick with her by a 9-1 margin, then I think Handel wins. If Ossoff gets the same 15% of the GOP vote he got in the primary, then he takes it.

    Personally I believe recent events have moved the race in Handel’s direction, though as yet I’m uncertain if it’s enough to ensure her victory.

  121. Wes says:

    In any event, while last week I thought Ossoff was the favorite, now I feel the race is a tossup likely to be decided by at its widest a 52-48 margin either way.

  122. Wes says:

    This is lkkely something that will cause Republicans to come home yo Handel:

    http://commentators.com/fbi-investigating-death-threats-against-gop-house-candidate/

  123. Wes says:

    Last time Dems made gains against the GOP in the GACD was 2004 when John Barrow defeated Max Burns for reelection. If Handel beats Ossoff, then Dems will be 13 years at either just holding steady or losing ground in the Peachtree State’s House delegation.

  124. Wes says:

    CBS is despicable. In trying to downplay Hodgkinson’s list of GOP targets, it cites an unnamed source as saying the list was “not an assassination list.” Of course. The Republicans on it were just people he wanted to invite to a barbecue. This is what passes for journalism these days, people:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/virginia-shooting-suspect-had-of-names-including-members-of-congress-on-him/

  125. Wes says:

    This is a perfect storm. Before Wednesday, I would have wanted to be on Ossoff’s campaign. Now I think more and more Handel is looking like a better bet because the Left just can’t control itself.

  126. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Correction on #120,Last Paragraph

    Should be Dem. 30% and GOP 47%, not 41%

  127. JC says:

    This is a perfect storm. Before Wednesday, I would have wanted to be on Ossoff’s campaign. Now I think more and more Handel is looking like a better bet because the Left just can’t control itself.

    ——————

    All we have to do is stay united. The left, on it’s own, does not have the votes to win elections. They certainly can’t win on their sjw agenda, which is why they focus so much on identity/demonization politics. As I’ve been saying the past two days, the left has passed the rubicon. GOP congressman are getting shot at. Assassination plays are occurring in NY to the resounding approval of the media. Muller’s ‘obstruction’ investigation is so unbelievably transparent for what it is. We went from hacked elections to Russian collusion to ‘obstruction of justice’.

    The left has been on a crusade to get rid of the duly elected president by any means necessary since the election. It’s not even rational anymore. And every time they fail they get even more extreme. The democratic party now operates on the mentality that they can retroactively abolish election results they don’t like by utilizing unelected bureaucrats and judges.

    Hopefully every Republican can now see the left fully for what it is. If we stay united we win.

  128. Phil says:

    I tried to read Nate Cohn’s last night tweets on the early vote and could not make heads or tails of them. He works for the NYT so probably best I didn’t’ get it.

    The left has spent twenty five million on this guy Ossoff. If he comes up short you will see the biggest air out of the balloon experience since whenever.

    Unfortunately, it will also infuriate the left even further. You think they are crazy insane with hate right now? Just wait.

  129. Tina says:

    Muh russian hearings last two weeks were a bust.

    So off had that long pause about not living in the district question.

    Shooting by the drat lon who realky did not have a shioters list.

  130. Wes says:

    JC, the Left has plenty of votes to win elections on its own. See 2008 and 2012 as examples. They lost in 2014 and 2016 because in the first election, they went extremely anti- white and anti-male and triggered a remarkable backlash and in the second nominated a corrupt, megalomaniac elitist connected to a tremendous foreign policy debacle who doubled down on all the worst aspects of their electoral coalition.

    Let’s not kid ourselves conservatism is some kind of natural majority when Americans frequently flip between ideological and partisan preferences.

  131. Wes says:

    If Ossoff loses I expect Dems to see some top recruits rethink their runs. You can’t have that level of enthusiasm and spending followed by a loss without losing major momentum.

    Of course if Ossoff hangs on, then expect the DCCC to get a flood of top-tier recruits.

  132. Tina says:

    Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii
    ·
    3h

    Donald Trump was the only guy smart enough not to get hacked by the Russians but he’s the only guy being investigated for Russian hacking?

    Lol

  133. Tina says:

    Except, i think that podester and her thighness were hacked inside.

  134. Tina says:

    I do not trust crowdstrike because they are russians to begin with, and the fbi never investigated the dnc systems.

  135. MichiganGuy says:

    Mistrial in Cosby trial!

  136. Cash Cow TM says:

    It is Dave Wissing’s birthday today.

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY, WIZARD!

  137. janz says:

    There are many informative comments, analysis, and predictions, so far, on this thread.

    I do think the “perfect storm” metaphor is applicable in the Georgia congressional race, in that people naturally become turned off, even embarrassed, by too much partisan ugliness. So, IMO, the Dem rancor, violence, fueled by their pure spitefulness will end up hurting them, demonstrating how the “Law of Diminishing Returns” can negatively impact hoped-for outcomes.

    Consequently, I think Handel will be able to pull out an election day win, based partly because the baseball field attacks will create a martyr out of Scalise for the R party, like it did for Gifforts and the Dems. Sympathy for the wounded and hostility towards those who wound is basically what the Dems are generating by their extreme behavior. And, it has proven in the past to be a losing strategy.

  138. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow question….

    How can a large U.S. naval warship collide with a freighter?

    Are they no longer equipping U.S. naval vessels with those radar-y things?

  139. Cash Cow TM says:

    I am moving toward giving Handel a chance.

    She may have come Bach from certain defeat.

  140. janz says:

    That cargo ship was 700 feet long!

  141. Tina says:

    Handel has a handle on the race.

  142. Tina says:

    ESPN TheOcho @theocho_espn
    ·
    1h

    Today @benshapiro reminded us that he’s still a nevertrumping bitch
    Ben Shapiro @benshapiro
    Today, Trump’s DHS announced it would keep the heart of Obama’s amnesty. There are currently zero words on Breitbart’s front page about it.

    Lol, he is a small man.

  143. Hugh says:

    She will Handel it. I think the EV bodes very well for her and its trajectory is in her favor. It looks like ev is older than in 2016 which I find as a bad sign for the socialist

  144. Bitterlaw says:

    Let’s not kid ourselves conservatism is some kind of natural majority when Americans frequently flip between ideological and partisan preferences.

    I agree, Wes. I have had this discussion on and off the air with a local radio host. He does not like the RINO Congressmen in the Philadelphia suburbs. He wants them al to be defeated in the primaries. I told him that he is delusional if he thinks a candidate who can win in Alabama can win in suburban Philadelphia.

  145. janz says:

    Iina,

    Ben Shapiro has more angst towards Steve Bannon, who he despises, because of his earlier ties with him at Breitbart.

  146. Tina says:

    I am gkad that there seems to be a bit more optimism about handel.

  147. janz says:

    New democratic bill establishes national russian threat response center…. It’s amazing how mildly the Obama Administration viewed this Russian threat until they unexpectedly lost the election.

    It seems like hyperbolic, partisan fear-mongering to me, on the part of the minority party.

  148. Tina says:

    Thanks, janz. I never read shapiro. I know nolte works for him, or nay have worned for him. I think trump was the most conservative on illegal immigration and Flub the most like hillary on it.

    By no means perfect, but he is addressing by deporting and the wall is coming next

  149. Tina says:

    I wonder how many sos offices were warned about the russians interfering in the elections.

    ZERO?

  150. janz says:

    Here’s a perfect Michael Ramirez political cartoon, regarding the Russian investigation.

    Tina, I agree. Frankly, I think it was a moderated, fair stance Trump took on the Dreamer’s, letting them stay, while taking a harder stance in his recent reversal of DAPA. Trump may still be a bohemian in partisan, public behavior. However, IMO, he has made some surprisingly good and deserving policy directives and decisions.

  151. Wes says:

    Well, Tina once events began occurring Handel could benefit from, HHR naturally became more optimistic.

    I had almost written the race off till Hodgkinson went on his spree and Dems began targeting GAGOP campaign offices.

    Those are noteworthy events working in Handel’s favor.

  152. janz says:

    What it’s like to cover a Jon Ossoff’s “accessible” campaign. I’ll give you a clue —> selective access only, with the key being having liberal credentials with you.

  153. Tina says:

    Wes, i think she had a good debate performance and noted it. This was the debate that so off had the long pause.

    Of course, debates do not mean much usually.

    Lastly, i like reading your commentary about the race.

  154. BayernFan says:

    I don’t think debates in anything other than presidential means squat. No one watches them.

  155. BayernFan says:

    If Handel wins by 2% or more, Dems are gonna have to be put on suicide watch.

  156. Tina says:

    Dapa he was court challenged.

    Daca, i am not sure if there were any court rulings.

    He is going after the ilkegal criminals, illegal crossings are way down, and the border wall will be built.

    Of course, the jebts,,janz, will then say he did not build a complete wall spanning the entire border. However, that was never his plan.

  157. Tina says:

    I am reading about protesters disrupting that stupid, trump assassination play in ny.

    The whole thing is stupid.

  158. janz says:

    Tina, Trump seems to lay out his opinions and plans in his own “public short hand.” The words, though, are constructed more to gain attention to matters and personal POVs he wants emphasized, rather than to cite clear policy stances that will precisely be enacted as stated. That makes his comments seem wily and prone to be reversed later on — which they often are.

  159. Phil says:

    The final day’s early vote added

    7000 votes – independents
    4000 votes – GOP
    1000 votes – Dem

    Looks like Democrats have just about scraped about all they are going to get out of their partisans as we get closer to Election Day.

    140,000 early votes
    Projected vote is estimated to be in or around 220,000, about 80K to be cast on Election Day. Republicans win Election Day. Will Handel be close enough after the early vote is counted to overtake when the Election Day vote is counted?

    Pretty much sums it up, does it not?

  160. janz says:

    #163 If Handel wins, the dems will only spin it in a way that somehow favors their side — whether it is how small the gap was between the two in a highly favored R district, or something else. The core of the dem party simply seems stuck in denial of how far left their behavior and philosophies have gone, and how distasteful and tiresome it has become for the rest of the country to put up with.

  161. janz says:

    The big question, Phil, is who is that sizable swath of Indies voting for?

  162. Wes says:

    You of all people should know how debates can affect election outcomes, Bay. Have you forgotten Dick Mourdock? I haven’t.

  163. Wes says:

    If Ossoff loses, I’ll characterize the outcome in this–correct–way:

    Republicans nominated a weak candidate in a district possibly trending Dem against a neophyte but surprisingly disciplined Dem candidate who vaulted to a consistent lead after strong campaigning and massive fundraising but lost because the Left engaged in violence and threats against Republicans in the week before the election.

  164. BayernFan says:

    Well, Wes, you should know that no one watched that debate. Well, the media did and when he made that boner…THEN everyone saw it. But other than that no one saw it and so long as nothing weird is said, no one cares.

  165. Tina says:

    Their behavior is just toomhyper partisan. They have no agenda, other than hate.

    But please keep pushing muh russian and ither conspiracies.

  166. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #167- Phil
    I predict at least a 250,000 total turnout in the GA CD-6 race.
    I also believe that based on the early vote going 95% Dem. to Ossoff(D), 70% Other to Ossoff and 15% Republican to Ossoff, he will lead, in his best case scenario,in the early voting 29,000+ 41,000+ 7,000, or 77,000 to Handel’s 63,000 votes,OR BY 14,000 VOTES.
    If only 80,000 additional votes are cast on Election Day, Handel would have to win them by 15+ points in order to triumph.

    Ex-GA Governor and current AG Secretary,Sonny Perdue, and Tom Price are campaigning this weekend with Handel in GA-6. That is a good thing.

  167. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #174
    Add: In last November’s GA CD-6 election, over 325,000 total votes were cast.

  168. lisab says:

    janz,
    i was talking to a human services major, (that’s a major?), and i asked her how small human services organizations are benefitting from advances in technology. this was a senior mind you. she said she did not think there were small human services organizations!!! just things like medicare, medicaid, snap etc. basically large government programs.

    i had to point out day care, hospices, small private schools, small charities, elderly care businesses …

    seriously they only know about large government programs

    we’re doomed

  169. lisab says:

    do you want to know what the last thing a human services organization needs? a human services major.

    what they need is people with skills, like doctors, nurses, carpenters, mechanics, electricians etc.

    being a human services major is like saying, “hi, i have no actual skills, i can’t actually help anyone, but i am highly trained at being a sjw”

    why not just double major in gender studies?

  170. Phil says:

    Sheeple, your numbers look tough for Handel. Real tough. I think they are realistic, however. Polls indicate she is indeed losing unaffiliated voters 70-30 and I fully expect Ossoff to get 95% of Dems. Where I can see Handel doing better is among Republicans. Can realistically see her improving on your 85% Republican number by three or four points.

    As far as Election Day Handel winning 57 or 58 percent is doable and that would get her there.

    Close but definitely winnable.

  171. Wes says:

    Perdue, Price, Deal, Perdue, and Isakson need to hit the campaign trail for Handel.

  172. janz says:

    Lisab,. Unfortunately, so many majors are just too generalized and non-specific to be useful, with skills that can sync into a real professional job post college graduation.

  173. Hugh says:

    178. I don’t agree about those numbers being realistic. EV dems and reps don’t early vote to vote for the other team. Late EV indicate enthusiasm going to Handel. We’ll see. My money if I could bet is on Handel by more than a couple points.

  174. DW says:

    I am sticking to my prediction of Handel 52 / Ossoff 48.

  175. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil and Hugh
    My analysis mirrors the data for the early voting in the GA CD-6 April primary.
    Remember that I said that this data was Ossoff”s(D) BEST CASE SCENARIO.
    I expect Handel to win by 4+ pts.

  176. Wes says:

    That seems like the most reasonable prediction, DW. We must remember Ossoff dominated the majority of the post-primary period, and Dems bsnked a lot of votes while Ossoff probably retained a strong lead among Indies. While possible, a large lead for Handel is unlikely at best.

  177. lisab says:

    howcan illinois be out of money? the taxes are so high

  178. JC says:

    So looking at the presidential election results in GA, it’s clear that although the race was closer in 2016 than 2012, the state did not actually trend democratic.

    2012:
    Obama 45.5%
    Romney 53.3%

    2016:
    Hillary 45.6%
    Trump 50.8%

    Democratic support stayed virtually the same, while Republican support dropped 3%. Most certainly from suburban/college educated GOPers either staying home or voting for Johnson. (Johnson pulled in 3%, as compared to 1% in 2012).

    Obviously not all of Johnson’s support was disaffected republicans, as I’m sure he drew in some wayward democrats who hated Hillary too. But I’d be willing to bet that the vast majority of them were never-trump republicans.

  179. JC says:

    Does anyone have the numbers of early votes/election day votes for the presidential race in GA6?

  180. Wes says:

    The shareef don’t like it!
    Rock the casbah!
    Rock the casbah!

    The shareef don’t like it!
    Rock the casbah!
    Rock the casbah!

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/saudi-border-guards-kill-iranian-fisherman-170617184851840.html

  181. JC says:

    Interesting tidbit:

    Early Vote in April 41D-41R by primary choice.
    Early Vote in June elections 47R-30D by last primary choice.

  182. Hugh says:

    183. Got it. We are in agreement.

  183. Phil says:

    Sheeple, yes, I understand your numbers are indeed Ossoff’s best case scenarios. Seventy percent of indies and fifteen percent of Republicans would probably give the Democrats a very narrow win.

    My gut says things do not work out so perfectly for Ossoff. As Wes has said the events over the last week have no doubt done nothing to get Ossoff’s 15% of Republicans. I think he falls a bit short of the crossover vote he needs and is closer to 65 or 66 percent of unaffiliated.

    I don’t believe Handel wins by four, but I will predict she get a 51-49 win. That is my call.

  184. JC says:

    Playing with the numbers, here is what I got;

    Early Votes:
    No Party (60,000) – 65% Ossoff
    GOP (50,000) – 90% Handel
    Dem (30,000) – 95% Ossoff

    EV Totals (140,000):
    Handel – 67,500
    Ossoff – 72,500
    ———————

    Election Day Turnout (100,000 exp):
    Handel (55,000) 55%
    Ossoff (45,000) 45%
    ———————

    All Votes Cast (240,000 exp):
    Handel (122,500) 51.04%
    Ossoff (117,000) 48.95%

  185. DW says:

    Rep. Scalise upgraded to serious condition. Had yet another surgery today.

  186. lisab says:

    ossoff has to win

    otherwise there will be trouble

    too much money was spent to come up empty

  187. Jonesy says:

    193. Great to hear. Thanks for the info DW

  188. JC says:

    40 million dollars.

    For a single congressional district…

  189. Wes says:

    For comparison’s sake, that’s one third of the cost of the most expensive Senate race in history–the 2016 PA Senate race–Jonesy.

    PA has 18 times as many people as GA-6.

  190. Wes says:

    The previous record was the 2014 NC Senate race, which cost $100 million. NC has 13 times as many people as GA-6.

    Essentially GA-6 is ushering in an era where House races cost as much as all but the most expensive Senate races. It’s already cost more than the Thune-Daschle race of 2004, which cost $33 million. Although SD and GA-6 have roughly equal populations, SD is approximately 50 times as big geographically as GA-6.

  191. Wes says:

    Congressional spending in 2018 is likely to top $200 billion. That’s bigger than the GDP of Brunei.

  192. lisab says:

    if ossoff loses there will be heck to pay

  193. JC says:

    I look forward to it.

  194. Phil says:

    Agree with Lisa. If Ossoff loses there will be big trouble. The left has thrown everything they have into this race. Everything. They are already insane with rage. Can only imagine how nuts they will be if they are disappointed once again. It will be ugly.

  195. wraith says:

    Whom the gods destroy, they first drive insane.

  196. DW says:

    Ossoff and the Dems could spend 100 Trillion dollars, but its still a red tilting district and he is still a left-wing moon-bat.

    Handel 52/48

  197. Cash Cow TM says:

    “rage against the machine”

    Hi! A strange eat a chin game.
    A tea tear is charging me.
    Changing a hate team, sire.

  198. Cash Cow TM says:

    Happy Father’s Day to all you mothers… 🙂

    Try to be the best Dad you can be to your kids, regardless of how old your “kids” happen to be.
    Most dads cannot give their kids everything they want, but try to give them everything they needed.

    Give your kids lots of love and encouragement. They are having to grow up in and deal with an ever tougher world….

    Cow ciao!

  199. BayernFan says:

    So I gotta figure that “other vote” in GA will at least split close to 50/50. Am I wrong?

  200. PresidentPaul! says:

    The Donald – Trumpwave

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k1zJV0DSvc

  201. hugh says:

    Let me be the first to predict a 4% plus win for handel. If i am comparing the EV percentages this time versus 2016, the dem and rep EV totals are each about 2% higher. The Ind vote is down. This time the EV is older and more male than in 2016. This indicates to me that she wins comfortably. the big difference being the large % drop in the under 30 vote compared to a much smaller % drop in the older voters. The trajectory has also been very good. The only way I may be wrong is if the voters that overwhelmingly voted for price will treat handel just like trump. I find that hare to believe I think it will be somewhere in the middle.

  202. hugh says:

    hard not hare

  203. PresidentPaul! says:

    https://twitter.com/Kaepernick7

    Kaepernick campaigning for league spot…

  204. DW says:

    hugh says:

    June 18, 2017 at 8:54 am

    Let me be the first to predict a 4% plus win for handel.

    –I have been saying 52/48 for weeks now.

  205. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In the GA-6 run-off, Cobb County should be Handel’s best County. In the April primary, it accounted for 32% of the 192,000 total.
    Yet, in the early voting for the run-off, Cobb accounts for only 19% of the vote.
    Why,you ask? Cobb had only one early voting station for half the early voting period and two for the second half. Compare that with the six polling stations in Dekalb County.
    Here is a breakdown of the GA-6 three Counties votes:

    Nov. 2016/ April 2017 Total/ 2017 Early Vote Run-off (In Percentages)

    Cobb 30/32/19
    Dekalb 22/23/23
    Fulton 48/45/57

    What this tells me is that Ossoff(D) better be substantially ahead in the Early Vote because Cobb County, which gave 41% in the April run-off, will come in BIGLY on Election Day.

    Does anyone know Fulton County’s demographics? In 2016, Clinton received 46% of Fulton’s’s vote, The Donald 49% and Tom Price 62%. In April,2017, Ossoff received 48% of the Cobb vote.

    Where does Handel reside?

    Happy Father’s Day y’all!!!

  206. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #211- Hugh Your conclusions are spot-on. If GOP voters “screw the pooch” by voting anti-Trump and for Ossoff, Handel loses.Luckily, she is well known in the area.

  207. hugh says:

    DW. I am saying more than 4% perhaps 8%. Sheeple great info on the EV.

  208. DW says:

    I guess I don’t quite get the suggestion that somehow Ossoff is running away with the indy vote.

    The indy vote in a southeastern state like Georgia just isn’t the same as the indy vote in a place like Minnesota or Wisconsin. It still has a patriotic, somewhat culturally conservative flavor to it in the southeast.

    I just don’t see indy voters in GA saying, “oh my Trump got elected, and the media tells me he is a disaster, so I must lay aside my centrist common sense and go out and vote for a left wing moon-bat to be my congressional representative instead of a vanilla centrist Republican.”

    I would take the indy vote to be within a few points of 50/50 and not the deciding factor in the election. It is a turnout election–which party gets their base out.

    In that there are more Rs than Ds in this district, I am sensing more Rs will turn out and its a 52/48 result.

  209. JC says:

    Okay, this is my final prediction for GA-6:

    Early Votes:
    – ‘No Party’ splits 64-36 for Ossoff.
    – GOP splits 88-12 for Handel
    – Dems split 97-3 for Ossoff
    That leaves the final EV tally with Handel-66,500; Ossoff-73,500
    ——————————-

    Election Day Votes:
    I think we will see an overall robust turnout for this election. I never really bought into the ‘cannibalization’ theories. When early voting is high, election day voting tends to be high too. I think we’ll see overall turnout to exceed 250,000. I’m guessing high and projecting election day voters will hit 120,000.

    – Election day tally (120,000) splits Handel-57%; Ossoff-43%
    ——————————-

    Final Tally:
    – Handel 51.88% (134,900)
    – Ossoff 48.11% (125,100)
    – Total votes cast (~260,000)

  210. hugh says:

    http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/338237-senate-gop-turns-focus-on-lynch

    Time to get the left political hacks to turn on each other. What is good for the goose is good for the gander. However, the dems will be unified in defending their hacks, but what if there hacks turn against each other. Pass the popcorn.

  211. Phil says:

    Was reading the forum section over at Atlas Presidential. They have a very long thread composed of mostly Democrats analyzing the early vote and focusing on Tuesday’s election. Nor a concensus by any means, but they mostly beieve they have this one. Lots of quoting Silver and his belief Ossoff gets 50.5 to win by a point. Some are even giddy about his pick. Thing is, getting giddy over an election prediction like that where there is no margin of error is a little crazy to me. Of course, crazy is what the left does these days.

    I am still calling it Handel 51-49. Close obviously, but I think she wins by a couple of points. Don’t see a turnout over 225,000, however. Even 225 is over 30 over round one. We shall see.

  212. NYCmike says:

    Happy Father’s Day to all Dads!

    Jeanine Pirro made some great observations.

    Wes to write the Evvvviiiiilllll Establishment after he watches it in 3…..2…….1…….

  213. Wes says:

    Just when I start to think more positively about Handel, she does something stupid. I facepalm when I see things like this:

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/karen-handel-tells-mom-of-lesbian-my-faith-calls-me-to-stop-your-daughter-from-adopting-a-child/

    I get Handel doesn’t believe in gay adoption. Fair enough. Show a little empathy though, Karen. You look incredibly foolish here.

  214. Wes says:

    Things like what I posted in 223, Hugh, are why I think Handel has no chance of a substantial victory. I now believe she will win, but she’s such an awkward, non-compelling campaigner I just can’t see anything past a 2/4-point victory for her.

  215. hugh says:

    Phil. What part of the EV makes them feel better? Best I can tell the EV is more republican, male and older than 2016 where Trump won (barely) and Price won by a huge margin. Hardly, sounds good for their guy. Now if they want to believe there are other reasons to be positive good for them, but not the EV.

  216. hugh says:

    223. How can these republicans be so stupid? No need to offend either side with a response on this question. Democrats are so much better at deflecting.

  217. hugh says:

    224. fair point. but she is running against a Bernie sanders clone that doesn’t have a real job or live in the district.

  218. Wes says:

    I agree, Hugh. Handel managed to do it though. It’s symptomatic of the kind of lackluster campsign she’s run. That’s why Ossoff was the frontrunner and was probably near certain to win till Hodgkinson went on his shooting spree and Dems began threatening GOP campaign offices.

  219. Phil says:

    Hugh, they don’t dispute that the EV will be more Republican. They think Republicans are simply cannibalizing their vote by voting early this round. They believe the Election Day vote will consequently be less Republican than before, and will not be enough to catch up on Tuesday.

  220. Phil says:

    A good candidate would have won this one by five points. Unfortunately, for every Kristi Noem you have a Karen Handel.

  221. Wes says:

    That Bernie Sanders type also got 48% of the vote in the primary–unlike the 42% Jason says Handel received in a nonexistent Republican primary held the same day–and received a flood of cash while playing up his moderate profile in the district and extolling his liberal bona fides to his donors.

    Meanwhile, Handel spent much of the post-primary period recycling attacks on Ossoff from the primary and ducking debates. No wonder she was down.

    She’s not a good candidate despite what Jason says, but I think outside circumstances save her from herself by a slender margin.

  222. Wes says:

    230 encapsulates my views on the GA-6 race perfectly.

  223. Phil says:

    Recruiting may decide the House in 2018. Ossoff losing will drive down the numbers of good Democratic candidates willing to run in this cycle. Could scare away some potential Democratic winners. Could, therefore, save us three or four seats IMO.

  224. hugh says:

    I suspect the end of the EV indicates that it is the dems that cannibalized their final vote. Not the other way around. Sheeples post 215, says a lot.

  225. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil
    Even Nate Cohn expects a total vote of 250,000. He anticipates 110,000 Election Day voters.

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn

  226. Tina says:

    Trumps attorney, sekuluw indicates on meet the depressed that trump is not under investigation bynthe sp.

    Jebots will be triggered.

  227. Phil says:

    235

    Ok, I had not read that about turnout.

    On the Dems being the ones cannibalizing their vote more than Republicans that may be true. Some evidence of that may be the final day’s early vote. Only 1000 of the 12000 votes Friday were Democrats. Tells me their partisan vote has slowed to a trickle. Could indicate that there aren’t that many, relatively speaking, partisan Democrats who have not voted left to cast ballots.

  228. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #223
    Wes, how many folks in GA-6 read the “Raw Story” blog?

  229. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil,Wes,Hugh,DW,Robbie and Jonesey:
    Nate Cohn keeps bringing up the surge in voting by “irregulars”,without defining the term. Does anyone know?
    If it involves primary voting, I know many staunch conservatives who skip primaries,but always vote in the generals.
    For some resson, Cohn implies that the Democrats have a lock on these “irregular” voters.

  230. Phil says:

    Of course, in reading Cohn’s tweets he says definitively that the better EV Republican numbers ARE a result of Republican cannibalization and the overall increase in the total vote is a vast increase in unaffiliated new voters that overwhelmingly favor Ossoff.

    I have no idea where Cohn gets his conclusions – given he works for the NYT I wonder if he is basing his conclusions on actual data or if his partisan colors are showing.

  231. Phil says:

    He is assuming these “irregulars” are younger voters turned on by the “idealism” supposedly brought on the scene by Ossoff. I think that is where he is coming from.

  232. Tina says:

    So jebot fell for trumps tweet about being under investigation…

    The tweet was a clear response to the wp fake news re 5 unnamed secret sources. You know the same sources that live in the basement.

    So, that tweet was not one to take literrally.

    And another wrong wp story.

  233. Wes says:

    I don’t believe in the voter cannibalization theory. If someone gets votes in early, those votes are banked and leave room for additional votes on Election Day.

    We saw this in 2008 when Obama had a remarkably successful nationwide early voting strategy that added to his victory rather than taking away from it. Many on HHR were saying Obama was cannibalizing his Election Day vote. They were engaging in wishful thinking.

    Similarly if Ossoff and Handel are getting their voters to the polls early, that simply means they have votes banked and can focus on adding to their vote totals on Tuesday. This will come down to enthusiasm. Ossoff had it for a long time. Now I believe Handel benefits because of recent events.

  234. Robbie says:

    As is the case with every Tina comment, the two best responses are “bless your heart” and “LOL”.

  235. Tina says:

    What is the latest conspiracy theory among the ds?

  236. Tina says:

    https://twitter.com/FoxNews

    Best polling firm last cycle.

    50 percent approval.

  237. Robbie says:

    Today’s Trumpian message of contortion.

    Trump may be the president, but there’s no reason to take his Twitter feed seriously.

    Instead, believe his “700 Club” lawyer.

  238. Robbie says:

    But muh Rasmussen!!!

  239. Tina says:

    Gingrich: Mueller ‘Should Recuse Himself’ – We’re Right Back Where Comey Was – Breitbart
    breitbart.com

    Why? He is launching an investigation into Hilary.

  240. Tina says:

    We take the 5 unnamed sources seriously

    Jebot.

  241. Tina says:

    Maybe, this week, we target bannon, jarrd, or ivanka?

    Have to do something to keep the russian hoax ongoing.

  242. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    June 18, 2017 at 11:42 am
    We take the 5 unnamed sources seriously
    Jebot.

    – Yet the moment you found some bogus website called TruePundit that used its own unnamed sources, you rushed to post it here as a way to discredit the Washington Post and its unnamed sources.

  243. Tina says:

    the jebot is so easily triggered this am.

    No worries, maggie is working on another story with 7 unnamed sources.

  244. Robbie says:

    I just looked up “fraud” in the dictionary. Interestingly enough, there was a picture of Newt Gingrich next to the word.

    Here’s one of my favorite fraudulent Newt moments.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154

    And then here’s the convenient and timely political walk-back when he was running for president.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tW590-BH5c

  245. Hugh says:

    Phil. I read his tweets. The problem he has is the demographics of the 2016 EV and this EV is that the youth and female percents are down and the older and male vote percents are up and 2016 was a blowout for price. He is trying to thread a needle that only works if you think demographic voting trends are reversing. Yet there is no proof.

  246. Jonesy says:

    Tina, I have finally come to the conclusion, that is not worth the time to converse with Robbie. He is too far gone. Better to just scroll down, and let him talk to himself.

    The constant posting of MSM tweets etc.. shows us that he wants the GOP to go down in flames.

  247. Jonesy says:

    Every pollster he quotes was discredited on election day, but he disregards RAS, the only one who had it right besides Dornlife.

    A bizarro world indeed tina

  248. Jonesy says:

    Sheeple, Wes, Phil, Hugh, Dw etc.. thanks for the info on GA-6

  249. Tina says:

    Everything he posts, jonesy, is discredited.

    Everything.

  250. Cash Cow TM says:

    About the GA CD race…prediction coming…

    Cow is still crunching numbers in her COWculator…

    COWABONGA!

  251. Bitterlaw says:

    Tina and Robbie are fighting? Damn. That is a shock.

  252. Robbie says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    June 18, 2017 at 1:31 pm
    Tina and Robbie are fighting? Damn. That is a shock.

    – Someone needs to callout Tina for her lies and conspiracies.

  253. Cash Cow TM says:

    THAT IS A SHOCK

    this sock a hat

  254. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 11:59 am
    Tina, I have finally come to the conclusion, that is not worth the time to converse with Robbie. He is too far gone. Better to just scroll down, and let him talk to himself.
    The constant posting of MSM tweets etc.. shows us that he wants the GOP to go down in flames.

    – Excellent news. I look forwarded to not seeing your drivel responding to me. Of course, there’s zero chance you will be able to hold to your promise.

    Also, I came to the conclusion within a few days of you starting to comment here, you were a pro-Trump troll who pretended to know what was taking place here, but didn’t do the necessary research to cover your tracks. In fact, you still refer to “Corey” as “Cory”. Every longtime reader here knows those are two very different people. Of course, you tried to claim I was a Mitt Romney and Stuart Stevens supporter in 2012.

  255. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 12:01 pm
    Every pollster he quotes was discredited on election day, but he disregards RAS, the only one who had it right besides Dornlife.
    A bizarro world indeed tina

    – Hey, Bozo the Clown. Every pollster, including Rasmussen, predicted Hillary would win the national vote. They were all right. Check the RCP website. The final RCP average was Clinton +3.2 and she won by 2.1%. That’s well within the margin or error.

    The poll which was completely wrong was the one which the Trumpers at HHR touted day after day, the LA Times poll. It was not only wrong, it was laughably wrong. It predicted Trump nationally by 3. How’d that work out?

    So keep telling yourselves the national polls got 2016 wrong, but that doesn’t make it true.

  256. Trump says:

    The Jeb cocsucker thinks he is smart. Talk about delusions, retarded monkey.

    How’s Hillary 370 Ev look? Or the brokered convention?

  257. Trump says:

    Go suck jebs coc$, retard. Only thing you are an expert at.

  258. lisab says:

    if ossoff loses there will be big trouble in the dem party

    the dem establishment keeps telling the young voters to trust them, they will bring victory

    but if ossoff loses there will be even more anger against the dem establishment

    this is a must win

  259. Trump says:

    The fu cling retard was pumped up during early evening of nov 8.

    I have seen punctured tires deflate slower than this moron once actual results started coming in.

  260. Phil says:

    Well, yeah, I didn’t see most Democrats predicting 370 EVs for Hillary. That is Author territory.

  261. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    June 18, 2017 at 2:33 pm
    Well, yeah, I didn’t see most Democrats predicting 370 EVs for Hillary. That is Author territory.

    – The day before the election, the RNC held a briefing for the press where they told the assembled media they expected a Hillary win with at least 325 electoral votes.

    Despite what Jonesy says, I didn’t predict Hillary would win with 370 electoral votes. As the prediction thread on election day shows, I had Clinton winning with 323 electoral votes.

    My Senate prediction was three off as I didn’t expect Toomey, Johnson, or Burr to win. My House prediction was 7 off, but that was hardly a wild miss given there were 435 seats.

    Robbie says:
    November 7, 2016 at 10:31 am
    Electoral College
    Clinton 323
    Trump 215
    Senate
    Democrats 51
    Republicans 49
    House
    Republicans 230
    Democrats 205

  262. lisab says:

    they still believe in 370 for hillary

  263. Tina says:

    Lies and conspiracies?

    Trump will win florida, ohio, iowa, and north carolina?

    He is not under investigation

    Russian collusion is a hoax

    Wp had 8 stories wrong, jebot fell for each of them.

    Brokered convention.

    I am glad mithc romney lost.

    Steal the nomination at the convention.

    All conspiracies and hoaxes.

  264. Tina says:

    Basically, if rotties tongue was notarized, I would still not believe a word out of it.

    Bad imitation for a drat from kos.

    Much like the illinois jebot.

  265. Robbie says:

    Before the phonies and the frauds claim that so and so predicted this or so and so predicted that, maybe they ought to check the prediction thread. Is Jonesy going to blackball all of the regulars who predicted a Clinton win? Even Dave Wissing predicted Hillary with 323. Is the Trump troll Jonesy going to attack him as well?

    http://davidwissing.com/?p=24461#comments

  266. Wes says:

    Let’s see…

    241
    -230
    —–
    7

    Must be some kind of new math.

  267. Wes says:

    279 was in response to Robbie’s claim that he was seven off in his House prediction last year.

  268. Tina says:

    Its new math.

  269. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    June 18, 2017 at 2:57 pm
    279 was in response to Robbie’s claim that he was seven off in his House prediction last year.

    – A mis-type. I apologize. I was watching the US Open as I typed.

  270. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    June 18, 2017 at 2:54 pm
    http://www.breitbart.com/news/the-latest-lawyer-says-trump-not-under-investigation/
    Not under investigation.

    – Trump’s “700 Club” lawyer chimes in with his view. Of course, during a heated interview with Chris Wallace today he claimed Trump was both not under investigate and under investigation.

  271. Robbie says:

    Tina seems to conflate (does she understand the word) hopes and desires with falsehoods. For instance, she’s right I hoped there was a way to steal the nomination from Trump at the convention. That was a wish/hope/desire. There’s no way it could be construed as a hoax or a lie. To put it another way, I hope I win the lottery. Is that a lie or a hoax? Of course not.

    A lie, for instance, is when Tina claims I believe in the Trump/Russia collusion story. As anyone who has read this comment section for the past five months knows, I have always written here the story is hot garbage. Yet because Tina lies, she simply repeats the opposite. Another lie was Tina claiming all throughout 2015 and 2016 she was actually for John Kasich even though things Kasich hates are the very things she supports.

  272. Tina says:

    Maggie says he was.

  273. Tina says:

    Jbot triggered by sekolow.

    Lol

  274. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #242& #243- Phil & Hugh
    There are 36,000 “irregular” votes out of the 140,000 cast. This category consists of new voters and those who did not vote in the April run-off. New registrations were probably High School graduates who turned 18 in the Spring(if I remember correctly, 6,800 new registrations occurred between the April primary and the run-off. These new votes should favor Ossoff) and the remainder were April primary non-voters.
    If I remember correctly, the GOP total in the April primary was disappointing,especially the early vote(17,000 Republican votes).

    Hugh is correct about Nate Cohn’s tweets. Cohn says that with a 15% Republican crossover,2/3 of the other going to Ossoff and Ossoff receiving 98% of the Dem. vote, he will have a TINY victory.( What is the definition of tiny?)

    Keep the faith, Brothers!!!

  275. lisab says:

    robbie mistypes a lot

  276. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Does anyone know what should be expected in the SC CD-5 general election, also on Tuesday? This is Mike Melaney’s old seat.

  277. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    June 18, 2017 at 3:16 pm
    robbie mistypes a lot

    – Oh yeah. I’m a noted back tracker, right? Give a break. Unlike a lot of people who regularly post here and hated Trump before they liked him, I have at least been consistent in my Trump view.

    So do me a favor. Since you claim I mistype a lot, please provide examples/evidence of it for me.

  278. Robbie says:

    Sheeple, Jr. says:
    June 18, 2017 at 3:19 pm
    Does anyone know what should be expected in the SC CD-5 general election, also on Tuesday? This is Mike Melaney’s old seat.

    – Around the Mulvaney margin of 10 or so.

  279. JC says:

    About the GA CD race…prediction coming…

    Cow is still crunching numbers in her COWculator…

    ————-

    That pun is udderly ridiculous.

  280. Wes says:

    I’m just curious as to how we know if Republicans, Indies, or Dems are voting since Georgia has no party registration.

  281. lisab says:

    Robbie says:
    My current electoral vote count has Clinton winning 374-164. Here’s how I get there:

    – Clinton wins all of the Obama 2012 states
    – Clinton snags GA, AR, and NC
    – Clinton wins 1 electoral vote from NE
    – Trump wins 1 electoral vote from ME

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/jAQ9m

    Obviously, this can change in the last three weeks, but my May 5 map had it 384-154 for Clinton. I thought she might win MO as well.

    If the map does change, I expect it to more further in Clinton’s direction. Trump could easily lose UT and, given that ID is a lot like UT, maybe ID is an election day surprise. Also, IN is no gimmie for Trump. He’ll probably win there, but it’s not the ruby red state most assume.

  282. Trump says:

    Other people here are somewhat rooted in reality, retarded Robbie.

    You, on the other hand, are a deranged loon still jerking off to the faded Jeb poster.

  283. Tina says:

    Idaho is a lot like Utah.

    Lol

  284. JC says:

    @294

    lol. Wow.

  285. Trump says:

    IN is no gimme for Trump.

    Talk about total loon. What was the margin in IN?

    And MO?

    And the best of all:

    Clinton wins all of the obama 2012 states.

    Ha ha ha ha ha

    Stick to your wet dream of brokered convention, stupid.

  286. Tina says:

    Code red was equalky hillarious.

  287. Robbie says:

    My goodness, lisab. I’m not even sure what point you’re trying to make. Are you attacking me for changing my view on the race last year as the facts about the race changed from May to November? I thought being open to changing facts and new perspectives was a sign of open mindedness?

    Earlier in this thread I mis-typed something because as I noted I was watching golf while typing. When Wes pointed it out, I immediately noted the mistake and apologized. As I said it was a mis-type.

    Are you seriously (stupidly) claiming that changing my electoral vote count from May 2016 to November 2016 is the same as typing 7 when I meant 11?

    If so, then I don’t know what to say to you.

  288. Trump says:

    Even a lowly slug has some kind of a self-preservation corrective mechanism.

    Not this slug of a moron. Always spectacularly wrong, but keeps stabbing himself.

  289. Trump says:

    If you don’t know what to say, then shut up.

    Loony moron.

  290. Robbie says:

    JC says:
    June 18, 2017 at 3:56 pm
    @294

    lol. Wow.

    – I suspect you’re referring to 295. Was I not allowed to have one view on May 5, 2016 and then after the campaign has been held have another/final view on November 7, 2016?

    Or was I on;t allowed to have one view the whole time and not be able to change it as the facts and the polling change? Because I thought one of the criticisms of me was I am unwilling to change my mind?

    It’s hard to know sometimes what the current line of attack at HHR is.

  291. Jonesy says:

    294. thanks Lisa. Robbie had Hillary winning Arkansas. My God. That is awful

  292. Trump says:

    Robbie retard, stop crying like a 13 year old girl.

    Have some dignity.

  293. Jonesy says:

    Macron under performed in French elections today. won 100 less seats than thought. Still has solid majority though

  294. Jonesy says:

    Sandoval vetoes Universal Healthcare in Nevada.

  295. Robbie says:

    One reason why I thought in early Fall Indiana was no gimme for Trump is a Monmouth poll right after the access Hollywood tape showed Trump ahead of Clinton by just 4 points. Another showed it as just a 5 point race.

    https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_101416/

  296. GA Voter says:

    Live in CD6. Voted already. One issue not addressed in the race is the number of voters who will be out of town on Tuesday. This might have already impacted the early voting turnout and upcoming election day voting. ATL checks out in the summer months and heads to FL. One can basically turn the lights off if still in town. After June neighborhood swim season is over it really is true.

  297. Robbie says:

    Trump says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:12 pm
    Robbie retard, stop crying like a 13 year old girl.

    Have some dignity.

    – Says the guy who calls me a retard and uses misspellings to get around the profanity ban.

  298. Robbie says:

    I’m confused. Was my first guess at the electoral college my official prediction, or was my actual prediction in the prediction thread my prediction? At HHR, up is down and down is up very often.

  299. Tina says:

    The jebots will be triggered even more, if turley or derchowitz are added to dream team 2.0.

  300. Wes says:

    GAV, Georgia still has absentee voting, so if people are genuinely motivated to vote, yhey’ll get their ballots in.

  301. Wes says:

    I don’t think there will much impact if any at all if local Georgians have a July diaspora to Florida.

  302. Robbie says:

    Here are some predictions from the regulars at HHR.

    EML says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:09 am
    EV
    Clinton 308
    Trump 230

  303. lisab says:

    so you are upset that people say you predicted hillary would get 370 evs

    when you actually said she would get 374

    got it

  304. Robbie says:

    DW says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:27 am
    EV:

    Hillary 308
    Trump 230

  305. lisab says:

    or 384

    depending on the day

  306. Robbie says:

    MD says:
    November 7, 2016 at 9:38 am
    EV

    Clinton – 307
    Racist – 231

  307. Robbie says:

    (Commie) Cory (Clinton 347 / Trump 191) says:
    November 7, 2016 at 10:31 am

    EV
    347 – Clinton
    191 – Trump

  308. Jonesy says:

    Tina, one of the most disgusting days of politics for me, was when GW Bush said he was not voting for Trump.

    After the Hell Bush put us through in the 2000 and 2004 Elections, he basically told all the Trump voters that voted for him, those two elections, to F off. I use to be a big fan of his, now I think the Bush family is a national disgrace.

  309. Robbie says:

    Robbie says:
    November 7, 2016 at 10:31 am

    Electoral College
    Clinton 323
    Trump 215

  310. Robbie says:

    Tim says:
    November 7, 2016 at 11:50 am
    Clinton, 322-216.

  311. Wes says:

    Ironically MD didn’t seem nearly so upset at Hillary for her corruption, elitism, anti-white male campaign, and responsibility gor Benghazi as at Trump for the latter’s supposed racism.

  312. Trump says:

    Retard, stop whining.

    you deserve insult and mockery.

  313. Jonesy says:

    But you are the expert Robbie. The MSM bag boy.

    You did worse than Comrade Cory of Canada.

    Did we hit a nerve?

  314. Robbie says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    November 7, 2016 at 12:12 pm

    EV
    Clinton 270
    Trump 268

  315. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    November 7, 2016 at 1:00 pm
    EV
    Clinton 307
    Trump 231

  316. lisab says:

    you’re referring to 295. Was I not allowed to have one view on May 5, 2016 and then after the campaign has been held have another/final view on November 7, 2016?
    ———

    do you really think the post 294 was from may 🙂

  317. Robbie says:

    Now Jonesy pretends he knows the difference between Corey and Cory.

  318. Robbie says:

    BayernFan says:
    November 7, 2016 at 3:49 pm
    Trump wins 295-243

  319. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    November 7, 2016 at 4:23 pm
    Electoral College
    Clinton 278
    Trump 260

  320. Jonesy says:

    308. So Robbie predicts that Trump would lose Indiana because of a University Poll? LOL!!

  321. Robbie says:

    Corey says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:19 pm
    341-197 Clinton (50-44 estimate)

  322. Robbie says:

    scooterboy says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:29 pm
    Clinton 308
    Trump 230

  323. Robbie says:

    JC says:
    November 7, 2016 at 9:35 pm
    Trump 328
    Clinton 210

  324. Jonesy says:

    330. You have been TKO’d here today Robbie, and you correcting my spelling?

  325. Robbie says:

    AuthorLMendez says:
    November 8, 2016 at 9:41 am
    President: HRC 323 EVs, DJT 215 EVs; HRC 49%-45%

  326. Jonesy says:

    Well my last post on Robbie. He is now a wounded discredited animal. Time for him to go back to Red State with Erickson.

  327. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:34 pm
    330. You have been TKO’d here today Robbie, and you correcting my spelling?

    – You should be a comedian. You had no idea there was a difference between Corey and Cory. Second, I put an end to the lie you were pushing that I predicted Hillary would get over 370 electoral votes. As my official prediction showed, it was the same as Dave Wissing’s. Are you now going to attack the man who runs this site because he didn’t get it right either?

  328. Trump says:

    Dave Wissing is another rabid never trumper who still hasn’t gotten over the hurt.

    Just like you, retard.

  329. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:27 pm
    so you are upset that people say you predicted hillary would get 370 evs

    when you actually said she would get 374

    got it

    – I predicted Hillary would get 323 on November 7, 2016. Are you saying I wasn’t allowed to change my mind as the facts changed? A first look in May is not the same as a final prediction in November. But at least now I know what I’m dealing with when it concerns you.

  330. BayernFan says:

    My predictions were pretty good for the EVs, House, and Senate. What? Like it’s hard?

  331. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:33 pm
    308. So Robbie predicts that Trump would lose Indiana because of a University Poll? LOL!!

    – You’re as bad as Tina. I didn’t predict Trump would lose Indiana. My final prediction was he would win Indiana.

  332. Trump says:

    At least Dave W is not in the business of spreading fake news propaganda.

  333. Wes says:

    You did, however, claim Trump could lose Utah, which he won by 19 points.

  334. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:35 pm
    Well my last post on Robbie. He is now a wounded discredited animal. Time for him to go back to Red State with Erickson.

    – As I wrote earlier in this thread, I knew there was a ZERO percent chance to you could avoid commenting on what I write.

  335. Robbie says:

    BayernFan says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:40 pm
    My predictions were pretty good for the EVs, House, and Senate. What? Like it’s hard?

    – I believe you were the closest when all three were factored.

  336. Wes says:

    I will say this about BayernFan’s predictive ability:

    St. Jude’s thanks him for thinking O’Donnell wouldn’t take it on the chin in her race against Coons.

  337. Wes says:

    St. Jude’s also thanks former poster Howard Dean for predicting Romney would beat Obama in NC decisively in 2012.

    Bryn Mawr thanks me for predicting Scott Brown and Mark Kirk would win reelection.

    I’m not sure if St. Jude’s thanks MD for saying Hillary would take NC last year.

  338. Jonesy says:

    Robbie is too easy to rile up. Not even a challenge anymore. Let us move to more important business.

    Like whether the Sky is Blue?

  339. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:42 pm
    You did, however, claim Trump could lose Utah, which he won by 19 points.

    – In May, yes. Three Utah polls before and including that May time frame showed the race as Clinton +2, a tie, and Trump +7.

    Let’s be honest, Trump trailed Clinton by 10 points or so in the RCP average during much of the Spring and state polling was showing much narrower races in traditional Republican states. There was even a Mississippi poll in March that showed Trump +3.

  340. Jonesy says:

    352. Let it go Robbie. You cannot compete with Wes.

  341. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:49 pm
    Robbie is too easy to rile up. Not even a challenge anymore. Let us move to more important business.

    Like whether the Sky is Blue?

    – Jonesy, you’ll never be able to quit me. You couldn’t even do it in this thread.

    Your problem is you never did the necessary research to make it appear you had been a longtime poster and you got caught.

    Why wasn’t your prediction in the prediction thread?

  342. Robbie says:

    Jonesy says:
    June 18, 2017 at 4:51 pm
    352. Let it go Robbie. You cannot compete with Wes.

    – I thought you were going to stop engaging with me.

  343. Wes says:

    Personally I find this more interesting than how far off Robbie was in his predictions last year:

    https://www.google.com/search?num=10&site=webhp&tbm=isch&source=hp&biw=980&bih=735&q=Samantha+sepulveda&oq=Samantha+sepulveda&gs_l=img.3..35i39k1j0l9.2119.7550.0.8958.20.20.0.0.0.0.241.1965.8j8j1.17.0….0…1.1j4.64.img..3.17.1952.0.OEfFxwnYzSs#imgrc=iXs7wFhcq7RAUM:

  344. Jonesy says:

    Le Pen wins a seat in the French Parliament

  345. Jonesy says:

    356. LOL Wes.

  346. Trump says:

    How does that negate the fact that you are a deranged loon?

  347. BayernFan says:

    Anyone who didn’t think Trump had a chance to win was simply not paying attention to the political zeitgeist.

  348. Jonesy says:

    Chuck Todd is a disgrace. His 2016 Predictions were worse than Robbie’s

  349. Wes says:

    Same for anyone who thought Coons wouldn’t crush Christine O’Donnell.

    Ahem.

  350. Jonesy says:

    Bay, Kudos on your foresight Brother. What is you call on the GA-6?

    By the way , Is Evan Bayh still applying for Fast Food Jobs?

  351. Wes says:

    Evan Bayh.

    I called him Kerry 2.0 from the beginning. To be fair, Kerry just didn’t realize how his state had changed and how badly Nelson had damaged the Dem brand in Nebraska.

    Bayh cluelessly walked into every trap Young set for him.

  352. Wes says:

    I was wrong about 2016 too. I predicted Hillary would win 279-259.

    Live and learn.

  353. Tina says:

    I am easily deceived by polls and media accounts with unnnamed sources.

    Jebot.

  354. Wes says:

    How badly did Corey predict Hillary would thrash Trump?

  355. Robbie says:

    I am easily deceived by Jack Posobiec, Cupcake Cardillo, John Nolte, Jim Hoft, and Conservative TreeHouse.

    Tinfoil Tina.

  356. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    June 18, 2017 at 5:04 pm
    How badly did Corey predict Hillary would thrash Trump?

    – By about 25 electoral votes than I did. I think he had her at 348.

  357. BayernFan says:

    As of now, I’m thinking handel by 3-4%.

  358. Jonesy says:

    368. Unlike yourself Reynolds Wrap, Jim Hoft and the Conservative Treehouse predicted a Trump win. Bill Mitchell too.

    But hey better to be a MSM Peg Boy, than someone who can read the Tea Leaves

  359. Jonesy says:

    365. Wes, that was a solid prediction though. Probably only one state off

  360. Wes says:

    Err, Kerrey, not Kerry.

  361. Jonesy says:

    Not to sound gross, but is Chuck Todd’s goatee a little too Brown?

  362. Wes says:

    Eh, I’m not upset I missed it. Even Michael Barone was wel off in 2012. I can at least take solace in realizing Hillary was too unpopular to win in a landslide.

  363. Jonesy says:

    Robbie, have any Junior College polling today?

  364. Jonesy says:

    Not just Barone Wes, but Gallup. They had Mitt winning on election day, due to it they did not poll the 2016 race. Gallup is junk

  365. lisab says:

    You did, however, claim Trump could lose Utah, which he won by 19 points.

    – In May, yes. Three Utah polls before and including that May time frame showed the race as Clinton +2, a tie, and Trump +7.
    ————-

    ummmmmmmmmm … the post of yours was not from may …

    i would have posted the date, but it is funnier this way

  366. Tina says:

    The canned ham rove still thinks mitch romney won florida.

  367. Tina says:

    Lisab is calling rottie a liar.

    Rottie and his chicago counterpart, who goes by the name clinton groupie, were touting russia, russia, ruussia, in june.

  368. lisab says:

    nah … he just mistypes a lot

  369. Tina says:

    Us airforce shoots down syrian fighter jet.

  370. JC says:

    It seems Gil was the closest:

    Gil says:
    November 7, 2016 at 10:31 am

    EV
    Trump – 304
    Hildebeast – 234

    Senate 53 R – 47 D
    House R 234 D 201
    ————————

    AlbertHodges says:
    November 7, 2016 at 9:17 am

    Trump: 292 Mrs. Clinton: 246
    Senate: 52-46-2
    House: 240 – 195

    And McCrory wins re-election in NC.

    Make America Great Again!
    ————————-

    BayernFan says:
    November 7, 2016 at 3:49 pm

    Trump wins 295-243

    GOP Senate 53-47

    Dems pick up 4 seats in House.
    ————————-

    NYCmike says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:24 am

    **correction on House**

    EV
    Trump 292
    Clinton 246

    Senate: 52 GOP 48 Dem
    House: 232 GOP 203 Dem

    Woke up and the sun was shining on newly bloomed roses in back yard.
    ————————

    EML nailed congress:

    EML says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:24 am

    Fixing mine…

    EV
    Clinton 308
    Trump 230

    Senate: 52 GOP 48 Dem
    House 240 GOP 195 Dem
    ————————

    As did DW:

    DW says:
    November 7, 2016 at 8:27 am

    EV:

    Hillary 308
    Trump 230

    Senate
    Republicans 52
    Democrats 48

    House
    Republicans 239
    Democrats 196
    ————————

  371. JC says:

    messy says:
    November 7, 2016 at 10:44 am

    Dave got it right. 51D in Senate. Trump won’t concede and people will die or get injured. Which will be horrible.

  372. Wes says:

    DW and I were spot on in our Senate predictions for 2014 and 2016. We both predicted 54-44-2 and 52-46-2 as the margins. I don’t recall if I ever made a prediction about the House except to say Republicans would hold it easily.

  373. Wes says:

    For you history buffs, 2014 and 2016 were the first elections since 1926 and 1928 when Dems never reached 200 House seats in back-to-back elections.

  374. Wes says:

    Messy was right:

    Trump didn’t concede–because he won.

    That’s a situation calling for an acceptance rather than a concession speech.

  375. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    383. Tina says: “No investigation of trump.
    Wp and loons wrong.”

    Your forgetting to also include Trump as getting it wrong, unless your including him among the loons like some posters on the board would.

  376. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    As a follow-up to my post #315, here are the actual voting numbers,by County, in the GA-6 election:

    Nov.,2016 Total/ April,2017 Total Vote/ June,2017 Early Vote

    Cobb 97,500/ 61,100/ 28,000
    Dekalb 72,200/ 44,400/ 32,400
    Fulton 156,300/ 86,800/ 80,000

  377. The Classical Liberal says:

    The Classical Liberal also did fairly well. 🙂

    TheClassicalLiberal says:
    November 8, 2016 at 1:43 pm
    Trump 289-247
    Senate 52-48 Republican
    House 235-200 Republican

    Had Trump winning NH but losing PA.
    Actually I had 290. In the last go through forgot to count 1 for Maine.

  378. Phil says:

    DeKalb County was Ossoff’s best county by far. He got 59 percent there.

    His early vote is now 75% of the total votes cast there in the first round.

    Cobb County was Ossoff’s worst county. He only got 41% there in the first round.

    The early vote in Cobb hasn’t even reached 50% of the total votes cast there in the first round.

    There better be a hell of an election day turnout in Cobb to make up for the underwhelming early turnout there.

  379. lisab says:

    since trump unexpectedly won idaho and utah and by the thinnest of margins

    and

    since trump has been a disaster every day since as detailed by robbie

    can we safely move those seats to safe dem seats in 2018

  380. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #392
    You can bet on it. Cobb had only one early voting station for half the early voting period and two for the other half.
    Dekalb had six open the whole time.

  381. Wes says:

    Is Dave going to give us a prediction thread for GA-6?

  382. Robbie says:

    Everyone needs to remember our new fried Jonesy says NATO is part of a globalist cabal.

  383. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    June 18, 2017 at 5:24 pm
    Lisab is calling rottie a liar.
    Rottie and his chicago counterpart, who goes by the name clinton groupie, were touting russia, russia, ruussia, in june.

    – Bless your heart. I’ve never touted the Russia collusion story. But keep lying.

  384. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    June 18, 2017 at 5:27 pm
    nah … he just mistypes a lot

    – Here’s the thing. When I mean to type 11 and instead type 7, I mis-typed.

    When I offer a first look at a race in May and then offer a different final prediction that’s called re-evaluation. It’s something everyone does here. For instance, Wes believed Handel would lose until this past week. Now, he thinks she’ll win. In other words, he reevaluated.

  385. Diamond Jim says:

    CD

  386. I support Donald Trump says:

    Trump should be angry with the GOP leadership. Harry Reid passed Obama’s agenda. Why can’t McConnell and Ryan pass Trump’s agenda? Handel will probably win in a squeaker.

  387. lisab says:

    again … the post where you predicted 374 evs for hillary was not from may …

    another typo i guess

  388. lisab says:

    i’ll give you. a hint … you did not write it before may either

  389. Phil says:

    Fulton County seems to be where the massive early turnout is.

    80K already with a first round turnout of 86,000. In other words, they already have 93% of the total first round number.

    As far as Fulton County goes, Democrats lost it 48-52 in the first round. So what is the makeup of this Fulton early vote surge? That is the $64,000 question. Republicans surged somewhere given the district early vote party breakdown and we know it wasn’t Cobb based on the Cobb County numbers. My guess it had to be Fulton.

  390. lisab says:

    deserves a repeat

    Robbie says:
    My current electoral vote count has Clinton winning 374-164. Here’s how I get there:

    – Clinton wins all of the Obama 2012 states
    – Clinton snags GA, AR, and NC
    – Clinton wins 1 electoral vote from NE
    – Trump wins 1 electoral vote from ME

    Obviously, this can change in the last three weeks, but my May 5 map had it 384-154 for Clinton. I thought she might win MO as well.

    If the map does change, I expect it to more further in Clinton’s direction. Trump could easily lose UT and, given that ID is a lot like UT, maybe ID is an election day surprise. Also, IN is no gimmie for Trump. He’ll probably win there, but it’s not the ruby red state most assume.

  391. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    405. To his credit, Robbie was not as gloomy on election night,..still gloomy, but did not as much.

    “Robbie says:
    November 8, 2016 at 6:06 pm
    Give me a break.
    I’m totally disappointed Clinton’s going to win and more than a few good Republicans are going to lose because of it.
    I’m even more depressed that we have to wait another four years to try and fix this. Of course, if we nominate Cruz, then we’ll have to wait until 2024.
    I’m celebrating nothing. I’m pissed.
    __________
    I’m not sure if they have any state specific data, but Mark Halperin and John Heilemann both just suggested Democrats could sweep most of the Senate races. Earlier this evening, they didn’t offer that impression.
    __________________
    Robbie says:
    November 8, 2016 at 7:17 pm
    Lord Ashcroft has the exits posted on his twitter. Basically, they show an easy Clinton win, but not a landslide.
    Robbie says:
    November 8, 2016 at 7:40 pm
    Look like a rough night, but we all knew that once Trump became the nominee.
    Robbie says:
    November 8, 2016 at 8:12 pm
    Plenty of speculation that Blount is in big trouble.

  392. Trump says:

    The moron Robbie was celebrating early in the evening of nov 8.

    Then the results started coming in.

    Oops.

  393. Trump says:

    To his credit, he then disappeared.