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Two new VA Polls put Northam Up By 1% and 5%.

Some better news this evening on the polling front for Ralph Northam as two more polls are out and they give him between a 1% and 5% lead. These polls come from Trafalgar Group and Gravis Marketing.

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Trafalgar)
Ralph Northam (D) 49%
Ed Gillespie (R) 48%
Cliff Hyra (L) 1%

GOVERNOR – VIRGINIA (Gravis)
Ralph Northam (D) 48%
Ed Gillespie (R) 43%
Cliff Hyra (L) 3%

The Trafalgar Group poll was done October 31-November 2 among likely voters. The Gravis Marketing poll was done October 30-November 3 among 1143 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:48 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (86)

86 Responses to “Two new VA Polls put Northam Up By 1% and 5%.”

  1. Tina says:

    Reg voters poll toss outright.

  2. janz says:

    The polls seem like a see-saw. Among all the predictions here, though, I think DW and wes’s are more in line with what the results will be. This is based on my belief that people voting for R’s are less inclined to verbalize their choices in the time of a Trump presidency.

  3. Wes says:

    Gravis was easily the best pollster of 2014. That would give me pause for concern about this poll were it of likely voters.

  4. Wes says:

    Everything broke against Northam in the last week. That’s why I say Gillespie edges him.

  5. Mr.Vito says:

    Trafalgar poll is 100% broken down by DMA, but there are some counties, including large ones, that do not fall into those DMAs, so I don’t understand if those were not part of the poll…

    ??

  6. Tina says:

    Saudi prince talal arrested with 2 others.

    The swamp is starting to drain.

  7. DW says:

    “my belief that people voting for R’s are less inclined to verbalize their choices”

    It was clear that the rural Trump voter in 2016 was hiding in plain sight from pollster, pundits, prognosticators, and even election night coverage. They hid from CBS all the way until about 1 am.

    We will see three days and 35 minutes from now if…
    1) The rural vote shows up
    2) If they are as overwhelmingly for Gillespie as they were for Trump
    3) If they were missed by the polls.

  8. DW says:

    Obviously the Trafalgar Group nailed almost every state in 2016. Here is hoping they are a little off this time.

  9. Mr.Vito says:

    Comparing Trafalgar to 2013 exits,

    Gillespie on target in Central/West
    Gillespie doing much better in Richmond/Tidewater
    Gillespie on target in NOVA

    = dead heat

  10. Bitterlaw says:

    Is it time to reweight the polls? It is a Hedgehog tradition.

  11. Wes says:

    I remember, Bitter. MD used to complain earnestly about poll reweighting–only to do an about face last year and say every poll showing Trump close to Hillary had to be reweighted to an 8-11 D spread.

  12. Tina says:

    ebra Heine
    @NiceDeb
    ·
    1h
    U.S. Embassies Around World Still Refuse to Hang Trump Portrait, Swamp Still in Control (link: https://pjmedia.com/jchristianadams/no-trump-portrait-embassies-swamp-still-controls/) pjmedia.com/jchristianadam… #RuleofLaw via @pjmedia_

    This is false. There are no portraits to hang, since trump just selected his official portrait. There would be a lag time to produce the portraits, ship them to agencies here and away.

  13. Mr.Vito says:

    “Is it time to reweight the polls? It is a Hedgehog tradition.”

    Why? you have a problem with one of them? I’ll reweight it for you.

    Otherwise, you keep saying this when no one has, so maybe it isn’t the tradition you think it is.

  14. Mr.Vito says:

    “This is false.”

    Of course… none of them can wait to hang Trump.

  15. Mr.Vito says:

    ZING!

  16. Wes says:

    The polls are surveying a divergent electorate. Which are correct will be apparent in a few days.

    Just going by recent events, I say the ones showing Gillespie closing or ahead are reflective of the ultimate outcome.

    Of course I may be undrestimating the Left’s anti-Trump enthusiasm and may therefore be wrong. (I had to throw the disclaimer in to stave off charges of bias.)

  17. Wes says:

    Bitter, is MD weighing in on the importance of keeping Ed out of Richmond?

  18. Tina says:

    Brazile treated like a slave.

    Kkk replaced by antifa.

    Same old drats.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    The other thing is Hyra is not drawing in people like Sarvis did… in 2013 Sarvis drew more from McAuliffe according to exits.

    Also there were more men in 2013 exits than in these polls, so turnout will be important.

  20. Wes says:

    No Republican has won the VA governorship with a Republican as President since 1973.

    Win one for the Gipper, Ed.

    As an aside, while it’s currently the lone bastion of Dem strength in the South, VA was actually one of the pioneer Southern states in turning to the GOP, going Republican evry time from 1952 to 2004 except 1964.

  21. Wes says:

    I’m glad you mentioned Sarvis, Vito. Some Old Dominion Republicans believe he ran as a stalking horse to help Warner win reelection in 2014. Because of this, the VA Legislature has recently been considering a bill requiring a GA-style runoff if neither candidate hits 50%. Thar could make Warner’s 2020 reelection bid problematic if passed.

  22. Tina says:

    Nov 3
    Donna Brazile: I did not trust Hillary’s polls. I visited many states where there was no enthusiasm for her…

    But, but, muh russia.

  23. DW says:

    Here is data from 2016 showing the updates from some of the networks on the Virginia returns.

    This can serve somewhat as a baseline for how the returns come in on Tuesday. I realize they are different elections (Gillespie will do better than Trump in NOVA, but probably poorer in rural areas) but at least it might give us some idea:

    7:20 pm
    Trump 52.1 / Clinton 42.4% – 1% reported (CNN)

    7:42 pm
    Trump 54% / Clinton 41%, 241,915 to 186,753 (ABC)

    7:48 pm
    Trump 54 / Clinton 41.2% with 14% reported (CNN)

    8:28 pm
    Trump 51.2% / Clinton 43.9% with 45% reported (CNN)

    8:36 pm
    Trump 49% / Clinton 46% with 51% reported (CBS)

    8:47 pm
    Trump 50.2% / Clinton 44.8% with 59% reported (CNN)

    9:03 pm
    Trump 49.5% / Clinton 45.4% with 66% reporting (CNN)

    9:30 pm
    Trump 48.1% / Clinton 46.8% with 77% reporting (CNN)

    9:37 pm
    Trump 47.8% / Clinton 47.1% with 78% reporting (CNN)

    9:46 pm
    Trump 47.6% / Clinton 47.3% with 80% reporting (CNN)

    10:01 pm
    Clinton 47.7% / Trump 47.2% with 83% reporting (CNN)

    10:30 pm
    Clinton 48.2% / Trump 46.7% with 87% reporting (CNN)

  24. Tina says:

    That va presidential race was close.. what did the polls say, i seem to remeber they got hillary correct, but the spread was off

  25. DW says:

    25–in the end Hillary won by 5 points. Networks didn’t update after 10:30 because it was called.

  26. GF says:

    24- DW, so, at what percentage reporting and margin can we be fairly certain of a Gillespie victory? For example, if he leads by 2% with 90% in, is that still not enough?

  27. GF says:

    I mean, HRC took the lead shortly after 80%, so that left a LOT of room for her to grow.

  28. DW says:

    27 – Not, not enough. Most of the remaining 10% will be from Fairfax. If Gillespie still leads by 4 points with 90% reported I think he’s got it. If he leads by just 3 points at the 90% mark, then its a tossup. But just 2 points, he falls short.

    That’s my best guess based on how VA returns come in and given that Gillespie probably does better than Trump in NOVA.

  29. jason says:

    Given how well Trump did in NC, I would have thought VA would have been closer than 5 points. It shows that NOVA has really changed the state.

  30. GF says:

    29- Fair enough.

    At what point did Warner overtake Ed? Wasn’t it extremely late in the night? Probably 95%+ reporting. A good question would seem to be by how much did Ed lead at 85 and 90 percent (or really, at any milestone beforehand if the counting presumably goes down in a similar geographical fashion).

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    Cucinelli lost his lead at about 9:40PM with 91% in.

    Obenshain was leading by 38,000
    He was leading by 19,000 an hour later
    It was about 10,000 with 99% in at 11:15PM
    It was 1589 after Arlington absentees at 11:30PM
    It was 153 at 1:15PM

    By morning:

    “DW says:
    November 6, 2013 at 7:52 am
    So 1000 votes mysteriously appear in the middle of the night for Northam”

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    “So 1000 votes mysteriously appear in the middle of the night for Northam”

    I think he meant Herring, who took a lead of about 500-600.

  33. jason says:

    I will give Gillespie the edge too if he is within 2 points. Right now he is down 1.8 on the RCP average.

  34. Wes says:

    Jason, I think Kaine helped Hillary win by five. He’s won three times statewide with an average of 51.67% of the vote. That wasn’t enough to give her an absolute majority of the vote but was enough to give her a fairly close five-point win. Had Kaine not been on the ticket, Hillary likely would have prevailed by two or three.

  35. Wes says:

    GF, Warner assumed the lead with 93% in. Amazingly Fairfax had outstanding votes for him that ultimately grew to a lead of 17,720 votes even though Fairfax City had supposedly already reported all of its votes before Warner assumed the lead.

  36. jason says:

    So when Donna Brazile said there was a presidential candidate that would put black people back in chains she meant Hillary?

    Who knew?

  37. Wes says:

    I don’t like conspiracy theories and tend to avoid them electorally barring obvious fraud like the Franken-Coleman race, but I still don’t get how Fairfax snnounced a tabulstion error after Warner assumed the lead–that continued to grow Warner’s lead.

    One would think a tabulation error after the vcity had reported would have meant Warner was allocated votes he didn’t really get.

  38. DW says:

    31 – I don’t have the data on that. I know it was very late.

    It still frustrates me that Gillespie lost to Warner.

    Had the GOP made any real effort he could have pulled it out.

  39. Wobbles says:

    Ok I am ready with my prediction.

    If Northam wins, its definitive evidence Trump will doom every Republican running for office in the next 20 years.

    If Gillespie wins, all politics are local.

  40. Wes says:

    If Gillespie wins, I want to see Maddow and Matthews lose their minds.

    If Gillespie, Vogel, and Adams win, I suspect Maddow and Matthews will die of sudden paralytic strokes.

  41. jason says:

    It still frustrates me that Gillespie lost to Warner.

    Had the GOP made any real effort he could have pulled it out.”

    Yep…

    At the time I thought resources would be better spend elsewhere. I was wrong.

  42. DW says:

    36 – those mystery votes were never explained. I never saw an article that dug deeply to find the make and model of the car from which those ballots were found in the trunk.

  43. Wes says:

    I always said Gillespie was the sleeper candidate of 2014. It was a rare oversight in an otherwise error-free run as NRSC Chair for Jerry Moran not to take notice.

  44. Wes says:

    One thing I learned upon researching the race is that Gillespie never had the money to poll it. Had he been able to do so, I think he could have presented the results to Jerry Moran–strangely enough Moran was a bete noire of several RRH “Republicans”–and gotten Moran to poll the race and send money in.

  45. DW says:

    45 – there were so many great targets, the GOP already trying to do the absurd and flip SIX seats…it seemed dumb, not to mention impossible to go for SEVEN–but it turns out six happened and seven was attainable.

  46. Cash Cow TM says:

    “can’t wait to hang Trump”

    GODD ONE, Mr. Vito!

  47. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE

    “SHOCK PURGE: Saudi King Arrests Prince, Others…”
    ____________________________________________
    Guess they did not like the Purple Rain song.

  48. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt keeps asking me 100 times today:

    “What day of the week IS this?”

    SMH

  49. Wes says:

    Walt probably hasn’t kept accurate time since he saw the first Homo sapiens appear.

  50. Cash Cow TM says:

    Yeah, Walt keeps shaking the sand in the hour glass watch he wears, and muttering about “that thing not keeping the right time.”

  51. Gelt Goose says:

    honk

  52. Mr.Vito says:

    This is interesting… it’s a year old.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c9Pj9SUvm0

  53. janz says:

    More thoughts from Donna Brazile, saying she feared for her life after Seth Rich’s death. I would fear for her life more now that she has written a book discrediting the Clintons!

  54. jason says:

    I read the excerpt, it seems like Brazile is throwing the Clintons under the bus for perceived slights she suffered during the campaign.

    She seems to resent the fact Hillary’s campaign cut off her funds and didn’t listen to her.

    Personally, I have always thought of Brazile as a dingbat and dumber than a doornail, so it doesn’t surprise me others thought so too.

    But we can thank her for colluding with CNN on the debate questions, that helped drive up Hillary’s negatives, everything helped.

  55. Tina says:

    She is not clean in this, she gave the debate questions to her thighness in advance.

    A cheater.

  56. DW says:

    57 – yep…sounds like Brazile wants to distance herself — makes me wonder if something is coming down the pike and she doesn’t want to go down with the ship.

  57. Tina says:

    The big ugly is coming, dw.

    U1,dossier, etc.

    Pass the popcorn.

  58. DW says:

    Has to be Tina. I have watched politics since 1980 and the only time I recall Dems throwing other Dems under the bus is the urgent desire for self-preservation outweighs the loyalty.

    And how many people have fallen on swords, are dead, or are in jail to help prop up Bill and Hillary?

  59. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes – MD just rants about his insurance premiums.

    Mr. Vito is not in a fun mood. He must have forgott n 2008, 2012, and 2016 when polls were tortured to get the desired result. “All the polls are wrong” was claimed at times as well.

  60. lisab says:

    antifa ran a $100,000 ad in the nytimes for their protest today

    they got less than a 50 person turnout

    in fairness the iphone x just came out so many protestors were in line at the apple store, but still … they should have gotten more than just robbie, corey, md and 4 others

  61. lisab says:

    if they had paid me a $1000 i would have spent the day protesting … and for the same money they could have had 100 protestors

  62. lisab says:

    ” He must have forgott n 2008, 2012, and 2016 when polls were tortured to get the desired result.”

    in 2016 all the polls were wrong

  63. lisab says:

    the best ones were the drudge polls right after each gop debate that showed trump had one the debate

    and then were trashed by the never trumpers

  64. mnw says:

    Contra our host Dave, if you round the Trafalgar poll to the nearest whole number, I believe it would be Northam +2, not +1.

    I seem to recall that if you wade into the back pages of the Gravis poll, they do eventually serve up some argle bargle about “likeliness” to vote. I don’t think it changes their top line, though.

  65. BayernFan says:

    DB has confirmed that Trump’s (and others) attacks on Hillary’s health, the corrupt DNC, and Seth Rich were right…despite all the protests at the time.

  66. lisab says:

    it is funny she mentioned seth rich

    and by funny i don’t mean in a ha ha way

    i mean it in a … ooo … some of the dems think that was weird too

  67. janz says:

    With the Democrat party it’s difficult to separate ruthless actions from conspiracy theories. In the case of the Clinton’s, IMO, there are simply too many unexplained sudden deaths in the wake of all their corruption.

    Furthermore, it’s hard to believe that such a supposed “principled” person has gone so far left as MD. I’m disappointed in him.

  68. BayernFan says:

    just shows how insecure he is.

  69. lisab says:

    Furthermore, it’s hard to believe that such a supposed “principled” person has gone so far left as MD. I’m disappointed in him.
    ———————————

    once i said, in jest, that i had gotten divorced and was marrying a mr. ikea … as in the store ikea, which i love.

    md made a point of saying how happy he was that i was going through a divorce

    not a very “principled” person i think

  70. janz says:

    Yeah, I remember that MD was periodically unkind to you, lisa, as he was to most who took an opposing POV from him. Nonetheless, I enjoyed MDs participation in this blog until he got almost obsessed with being obnoxious.

  71. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m watching skynews election coverage for the first time while I work on some things…

    First time I’ve seen the exits at poll closings…

    GA Trump+1
    OH Trump+1

    NC Clinton+1
    FL Clinton+2
    PA Clinton+4

    They have gone on and on about bogus crosstabs in the exit polls and why Trump was going to lose.

  72. GF says:

    Nice exits! They were only off as follows

    7
    9 (or in the words of Cenk Uygur I’m TYT, “Niiiiiiiiine Points!”)
    4
    3
    5

  73. Redmen4ever says:

    After the disastrous 2004 exit polls, following the disastrous 2000 exit polls, the media consortium that runs the exit polls decided to not reveal the “raw” exit polls. Instead, they were to publish the “polls” after they weighted it by the result. So, as far as the public is concerned, the exit polls got turned into an analytical tool, to get into the mind of the voter. Behind the scenes, the exit polls are supposed to help the networks “call” the election. As with pre-election polls, the “raw” exit polls are often outside the margin of error and, when they are, they overpredict the performance of the Democrat.

  74. dblaikie says:

    The mere fact that the final polls show a close race shows that Northam is in deep trouble. His allowing or not denouncing that ad showed that. Because of that ad he is going to do as well as Trump in the down state and out perform Trump by a large margin in the DC burbs.

    Gillespie +2

  75. mnw says:

    It has always seemed to me that when u get a race like VA Guv, where the polls say it’s tied, the decisive factor will probably be the ground game.

    Needless to say, since the last time I was in VA was around 1965, I don’t have any sense of who has the better ground game.

  76. jason says:

    Mr. Vito, try to find Univsion’s coverage, I would love to see Jorge Ramos’ meltdown. I can find Telemundo but not Univision.

  77. mnw says:

    That was interesting, Wes.

    I’m sure it will at least sway more voters than their similar, recent advice to Alabamans: “Roy Moore in Unfit to Serve in Senate.”

    Lib DEM editorialists like “respectable” “mainstream” GOP nominees (rising sea levels; redemption not incarceration!) in large part because such nominees are so easy to beat in the GE.

    FDR famously said, “Give people a choice between a real conservative and an pretend conservative, and they’ll elect the real one every time.”

    I believe the same is true for “real liberals” & “me too” liberals.

  78. jason says:

    I will go with dblaikie’s prediction. He was certainly more accurate on Trump’s chances than I was, you can’t argue with success.

  79. jason says:

    the best ones were the drudge polls right after each gop debate that showed trump had one the debate

    and then were trashed by the never trumpers”

    And rightly so. Most of them showed Jeb in last place with like 2%. Everyone knows he had at least 3%.

  80. mnw says:

    new thread with new polls

  81. dblaikie says:

    Why Jason I am touched! Now just watch me be off 10 points? We all give educated guesses here at hedgehog but in the end that is just what they are — guesses. But I still think it will Gillespie +2. Have a great day!

  82. jason says:

    Furthermore, it’s hard to believe that such a supposed “principled” person has gone so far left as MD. I’m disappointed in him.”

    I always viewed MD as a principled conservative too.

    But like Corey, he does have a big ego and hates to be wrong. He invested a lot of “capital” here telling us Trump could never win, also same as Corey.

    Corey, MD, Author and Wobbie are still mired in the campaign and have not been able to move on, and cannot admit that you can support a lot of what Trump is doing without being a Trump fan. They have all sold out their conservative principles in exchange for blind opposition to Trump.

    Maybe Corey can explain the psychology behind it.

  83. CG says:

    It’s very simple.

    Donald Trump is scum.