Election Night Thread PA-18

The polls close at 8pm.

Posted by Dave at 7:00 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (351)

351 Responses to “Election Night Thread PA-18”

  1. Hugh says:

    Darn. 2

  2. Chicon says:

    Lamb 96 – Captain Kangaroo 4.

  3. Chicon says:

    Another prediction….in a real surprise, Hawley will get more write-in votes than Smoot.

  4. Robb E. says:

    Nice blog you have here.

  5. Chicon says:

    5 – wait until Pool Harris arrives. He’s a hoot.

  6. Robb E. says:

    Does Yuri Nator ever post here?

  7. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Richard Baris
    Replying to @jaybluuee and @GOP
    Correct. I’ve heard from him. And PA chamber head is telling people it’s Saccone by 5 points.
    3:58 PM · Mar 13, 2018


  8. Tina says:

    Rinse prubus appears to be the source for the saccone plus 5.
    Still skeptical.

  9. Hugh says:

    CNN right now in at restaurant crowing about how Alabama senate swung 30 points due to dem intensity. What hacks.

  10. Hugh says:

    9 very

  11. Tina says:

    I will be partying when lamb wins.


  12. SWAG Polling says:

    SWAG Polling has Saccone by 2.

  13. lisab says:

    how many minutes after the polls close will robbie appear?

  14. lisab says:

    When lamb wins, bet he supports piglosi. (tina)
    that is guaranteed

  15. Tgca says:

    Quince!, 15 Bebe!

  16. Tgca says:

    LisaB is such a b…

  17. Poul Harris says:

    You rannnngggggg…..?

    – Poul Harris

  18. Tina says:

    If Piglosi were younger, i coukd get behind her,


  19. Hugh says:

    B… babe?

  20. Poul Harris says:

    From 30,000 feet I can’t see sh-t.

    – Poul Harris

  21. jason says:

    Wow, first returns are amazing.

  22. Godfather says:

    The Godfather is back my fellow hedgehogs.

  23. jason says:

    how many minutes after the polls close will robbie appear?”

    It depends…..

    If its a Lamb blowout he will be here faster than maggots on road kill to say its a sure sign the GOP is doomed.

    If its close he will be slow to appear.

    If Saccone is ahead he will be here to say he predicted it but it means nothing.

  24. jason says:

    Thank God.

  25. jason says:

    Ok who has the link to the results.

  26. jason says:

    So far its a tie race, 0 to 0.

    Wobbie hardest hit.

  27. BayernFan says:

    Why is MSNBC showing GOP with 52 Senate seats.

  28. BayernFan says:

    I thought it was 51 after Alabama.

  29. Tina says:

    MAybe one of the two az senate seats flipped from d to r?


  30. NYCmike says:

    “Why is MSNBC showing GOP with 52 Senate seats.”

    -They gave 1 to Trump since he was writing so much legislation for himself to sign into law.

  31. NYCmike says:

    A pitcher throws a no-hitter. Every player on the other team ends the game with the same exact batting average as when the game started?


  32. lisab says:

    Would Australia’s mandatory gun buyback program work in the U.S.?

  33. jason says:

    I will sell some of my guns for a 500% profit if lisab will pay the taxes to pay for it.

  34. lisab says:

    Fmr. Australian Prime Minister: Why not change the Second Amendment?

  35. NYCmike says:

    Why would Australia want to buy more guns?

    The government banned them.

  36. jason says:

    Dave Wasserman
    ICYMI: Here’s what I’d estimate Conor Lamb (D) needs in each #PA18 county to win tonight: Allegheny: 58% Greene: 41% Washington: 47% Westmoreland:43%

  37. Chicon says:

    33 – 1st game of the year.

  38. jason says:

    Fmr. Australian Prime Minister: Why not change the Second Amendment?”

    Why not give Australia back to the Aborigines?

  39. jason says:

    Right now, our most likely estimates span Lamb +14 to Saccone +14.”


  40. VictrC says:

    Results page? Or is it too early?

  41. Nostradamus says:

    No way the NYT will be wrong

  42. VictrC says:

    BTW will the Libertarian in the “running” take enough votes away from Saccone to hand Lamb the win?? It looks close enough to where it might be enough to cost the R the election

  43. jason says:

    Right now, our most likely estimates span Lamb +13 to Saccone +13….


  44. lisab says:

    No way the NYT will be wrong

    technically they were right on 2016 election night …

    they never said hillary had 100 percent chance to win

  45. jason says:

    Sure, the Libertarian deadenders could cause Saccone to lose…

    I am sure Lamb would advance the Libertarian cause by supporting the Dem agenda of a nanny state.

  46. lisab says:

    still no sign of robbie

  47. jason says:

    in 2016 the NYT site was saying Trump was likely to win way before the networks admitted it.

  48. BayernFan says:

    First results lamb 53%

  49. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    As am sure Robbie will remind everyone, I am not even a Republican and have no business on a conservative Republican blog

    Therefore, as an enlightened Californian, I would naturally want the young progressive guy to win. However, know this election is in deplorable flyover country. Those deplorables will force their wives to vote with shotguns to their heads; they are such bigots towards diverse people that they don’t even like people with freckles. So am not even going to make a projection. Its too deploring.

  50. jason says:

    Good result for Saconne in Allegheny and bad in Greene.

  51. Gpo says:

    Trump won the district by 20 – anything less than that will show even his most ardent supporters are bailing on him /sarc

  52. jason says:

    NYT 51% chance Lamb.

  53. jason says:

    The Libertarian so far has 11 votes out of 1400 cast…. so maybe won’t be a factor.

  54. Tina says:

    Barris, lamb running a point ahead of where he needs to be

  55. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    It looks like the LAMB isn’t going to get slaughtered tonight!

  56. jason says:

    It’s early, very early. But good news for Conor Lamb: He appears to be running ahead of expectations in fragmentary returns in white working-class traditionally Dem Greene County. He inches ahead in our estimate.”

  57. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Trump is pathetic

  58. BayernFan says:

    GOP getting blown out

  59. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Turd Trump

  60. BayernFan says:


  61. jason says:

    Doesn’t look like a blowout… 60-40 so far but 95% of the votes are from Allegheny

  62. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Rick Suckkone is getting LAMB CHOPPED!

  63. jason says:

    If Lamb only gets 60% in Allegheny it will be very close.

  64. BayernFan says:

    Lamb not doing too baaaaaad

  65. Tina says:

    TN Elections Senate
    Shane Reeves (R) – 4,740
    Gayle Jordan (D) – 2,625

  66. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Fun fact: Did you know that Conor Lamb is related to C-Span founder Brian Lamb?

  67. BayernFan says:

    Still 60-40. Brutal

  68. jason says:

    Hold your horses, this could be close.

  69. VictrC says:

    There are still 200k votes to go, no?

  70. jason says:

    About 19,000 votes have been counted already. Mr. Lamb leads in that count by about 18 points.

    We think about 209,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Saccone leads in that vote by about 1.2 points.

  71. jason says:

    NYT has it back to even.

  72. jason says:

    Lamb is ahead by 4k votes


    We think about 204,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Saccone leads in that vote by about 2.2 points.”

    That’s 4 k votes.


  73. jason says:

    The worm is turning…

    NYT now predicting a 0.3% Saccone win

  74. jason says:


    Our best guess is that Mr. Saccone has a small advantage, but the race is very close.

  75. BayernFan says:

    Down 18%. Wow

  76. jason says:

    30% counted in Allegheny and Lamb is underperforming…

  77. jason says:

    Bayern you are joking right?

  78. Tina says:

    Baris, greene was very good for saxdone

  79. BayernFan says:

    It’s tightening!!! Down to 16% with 20% in

  80. jason says:

    New NYT estimate:

    Saccone 50.6
    Lamb 48.8

  81. Tina says:

    Baris says lamb did not underperform in allegheny, jason.


  82. Hugh says:

    Is there a link for results

  83. jason says:

    Saccone now 58% chance of winning .. NYT

  84. Tina says:

    Baris, still waiting on westmoreland.

  85. BayernFan says:

    I think Maddows ratings are up bc people like me and the gf are watching her as we would a car crash.

  86. BayernFan says:

    Down to 15%. Still brutal.

  87. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Richard Baris
    I tell you guys all the time. NY Times is awesome b/c they have a lot of money. But the projections go up way too early. They wobble back and forth. Just wait a bit. Too early.


  88. Waingro says:

    Saccone is gonna pull this out.

  89. BayernFan says:

    The only way for the GOP to win would be if there was Russian hacking right?

  90. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    New York Times now estimating 60% chance of Saccone winning.

  91. BayernFan says:

    90…. gay post of the day

  92. Waingro says:

    NYT up to 64% for Saccone. Trolls and “non partisan” prognosticators are about to go back into their shells.

  93. Tina says:

    The Russians hacked hillarys shoes in india.

  94. jason says:

    About 53,000 votes have been counted already. Mr. Lamb leads in that count by about 14 points.

    We think about 173,000 votes remain to be counted. We think Mr. Saccone leads in that vote by about 7 points

  95. jason says:

    That’s bad math for Lamb if true.

  96. lisab says:

    where is robbie?

  97. JC says:

    I’m not paying attention to that damn NYT needle. Way to nerve wracking, and I don’t even care about this election.

    …and yet here I am, refreshing the returns every few minutes.

    I need a new hobby.

  98. Waingro says:

    “Non partisans” concerned that they may have been wrong.

    “Still quite early, but you can see the pattern on the bottom end of the chart. That shows that, in GOP areas, Saccone doing a bit better than we thought he would. But we don’t have many GOP areas in so far. I’m a little concerned the needle is overreacting here, but we’ll see”

  99. BayernFan says:


    Maybe her mouth too?

  100. jason says:

    Yes, for Saccone to win he has to perform where the NYT thinks he is strong.

    That vote is not in yet.

    All we know is that Lamb is not overperforming where the NYT thought HE was strong.

  101. jason says:

    Back to 51% Lamb

  102. lisab says:

    looks like lamb by 3

  103. NYCmike says:

    The Real Winner tonight – the Fatted Calf.

  104. Tina says:

    What a vile, nasty woman she is.

  105. BayernFan says:

    Lamb was down to 8, but now up to 9. Seems like Alabama redux.

    Just hold the Senate.

  106. Hugh says:

    Can anyone provide a link

  107. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Richard Baris
    TY Andrew! It’s a snake oil salesman. Very cool, but kinks not worked out. Here’s what’s happening. Saccone doing a bit better in his backyard. But he’s not running as strong in areas Lamb played in Trump country.

  108. BayernFan says:

    Link in 27

  109. jason says:

    What happened to the “early night”?

  110. jason says:

    Allegheny 70% in.

  111. VictrC says:

    How the #%*@ did it go from Saccone 60% to Lamb 53% in the four minutes it takes to get a cone at Baskin Robbins?

  112. BayernFan says:

    All three GOP Senate candidates in Indiana are alums of my Alma mater. Wabash College.

  113. BayernFan says:


  114. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    It is way too close to call to guess who is going to win.

  115. Hugh says:

    Wabash. Great school. I got accepted there. I lived in indy

  116. lisab says:

    How the #%*@ did it go from Saccone 60% to Lamb 53% in the four minutes

    votes from Westmoreland came in

  117. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    There is a lot of Republican vote not counted yet.

  118. VictrC says:

    I forgot to put the /sarc after my comment… 😉

  119. BayernFan says:

    Time to activate the Putin signal?

  120. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    114. “How the #%*@ did it go from Saccone 60% to Lamb 53% in the four minutes it takes to get a cone at Baskin Robbins?”

    Look at Tina’s comment at #89.

  121. Tina says:

    Mnw, remeber beer chrusher? He is posting sheot.

  122. Tina says:

    How did the ny slimes meter have her thighness with a 99 percent chance to win the presidency.

  123. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    You’re at a Baskin Robbins?

  124. VictrC says:

    Right now NYT has as its expected final result 50.0% Lamb 49.4% Saccone 0.7% Other.

    Is that other the Libertarian…remember what I asked earlier….

  125. VictrC says:

    Yes, i was!!! I am in town this week so I took the Mrs and little ones down the street for ice cream (its 70* here)!!!

  126. NYCmike says:

    Order me a Warm lava Cake Sundae, please.

    I’ll pick it up on my way home from work.

  127. Tina says:

    Are there Russian troll farms at thebasken robbins?

  128. VictrC says:

    LOL I have a comment being moderated. I must have missed the Russians there, but taking orders for anyone else?? Ill trade this Jamoca for a win tonight though

  129. jason says:


    NYT: Our forecast is not trustworthy right now.

  130. BayernFan says:

    The NYT prediction thingy is gone

  131. Tina says:

    Maggie Hack hacked the forecast site.

  132. Tina says:

    Russian bots removed it.

    Where is Mulehead and Swampstein?

  133. VictrC says:

    LOL. Collusion I bet. Mueller is already there taking depositions and sending out subpoenas

  134. Tina says:

    Nate Cohn
    Alright folks, we’ve shut the needle down. As mentioned earlier, Westmoreland County isn’t going to produce precinct results, as we believed they would. It’s the GOP base of the district. We can’t responsibly make a forecast without data from there.

  135. jason says:

    Precinct results are not currently available in Westmoreland County, a heavily Republican part of the district. We’re monitoring the county-level results closely, but for now we can’t responsibly make a forecast without more detailed information about where in Westmoreland County the votes are coming from.”


  136. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Opps! NYT latest prediction

    “Live Estimates of the Final Vote

    Precinct results are not currently available in Westmoreland County, a heavily Republican part of the district. We’re monitoring the county-level results closely, but for now we can’t responsibly make a forecast without more detailed information about where in Westmoreland County the votes are coming from.”

  137. Tina says:

    We need to keep an eye out for pete the cheat and the mistress.

  138. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    138. “We can’t responsibly make a forecast without data from there.”

    You mean they are going to have to rely on ACTUAL vote totals. How primitive.

  139. jason says:

    85% counted in Allegheny and Lamb has a 5k lead.

    As soon as that dries up Saccone will close further, the question is are there enough votes out.

  140. Tina says:

    Sj yates has determined that the removal of the ny times doo hicky was a ciolation of the logan act.

    Flynn is responsible doin nuffin.

  141. Waingro says:

    With NYT needle now gone, all “non partisan” prognosticators are now in unison saying Lamb looks like he’s gonna pull this out. Guess we we’ll have to see.

  142. Just Fill Out The Census says:


  143. Tina says:

    Baris said the ny times meter was sheot a half hour ago.

  144. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    141. “We need to keep an eye out for pete the cheat and the mistress.”

    How about Putin’s friends Boris and Natasha?

  145. jason says:

    Also Saccone is winning a lot of precincts in Allegheny so we don’t know what 15% is out. From the map it looks like some rural areas are still out.

  146. Tina says:

    Its ciolations of the logan act all the way around.

  147. jason says:

    I became more optimistic when Always Wrong Noncensus showed up.

  148. Tina says:


  149. Waingro says:

    “Greene County is done. Lamb ran a point ahead of our estimate for his performance in the event of a districtwide tie, turnout at 98% of expectations”

  150. jason says:

    Allegheny 91% in.

  151. Tina says:

    Always wrong nonconsensus aka Nothing But Diarrhea.

  152. lisab says:

    it depends a lot on how the white women’s husbands told their wives to vote in those districts

  153. BayernFan says:


  154. jason says:

    Lamb has a 2.5k lead.

  155. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    145. “all “non partisan” prognosticators are now in unison saying Lamb looks like he’s gonna pull this out.”

    Who are you referring to? It looks genuinely too close to call.

  156. Tina says:

    Will westmoreland be our n va?

  157. lisab says:

    i’m still filling out ballots for the car trunk vote

  158. Waingro says:

    Looks like Decision Desk is about to call it for Lamb….

  159. lisab says:

    libertarian may be the factor

  160. Waingro says:

    Aaaaand hold onto your butts.

    “Lamb (D) lead down to 2,493 votes (1.4%) w/ 87% of precincts reporting. The remaining precincts lean *slightly* Saccone. This might be a good time to look up PA’s recount provisions. #PA18”

  161. lisab says:

    i blame trump 🙂

  162. Tina says:

    It’s going to be a long night folks. Looks that way. Eking, we’re eking tonight.

  163. jason says:

    Looks like Lamb could win by like 2k.. but its going to be very close.

  164. VictrC says:

    Who called the libertarian screwing this all up earlier tonight. Who? Come on…you can say it. 😉

  165. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Westmorland County has not reported yet, it is heavily Republican. Of course they are now talking recounts.

  166. BayernFan says:

    Westmoreland is 88% in

  167. Waingro says:

    More expected spin from “non partisan” prognosticators.

    “Needless to say, the fact #PA18 is headed for a photo finish is pretty bad news for Republicans nationally.”

  168. Tina says:

    General Westmoreland is not reporting by precinct and has not moved against the Viet Cong.

  169. lisab says:

    who called the libertarian screwing this all up earlier tonight. who? come on…you can say it.

    would it be … victrc?

  170. BayernFan says:

    Less than 2000 votes now

  171. lisab says:

    Westmoreland is in

  172. VictrC says:

    LisaB wins a quart of Chocolate Chip from Baskin Robbins…Fedex will be visiting mass. shortly

  173. Tina says:

    Without the westmoreland prcinct vote, usless.


  174. BayernFan says:

    703 votes

  175. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    170. Not according to the NYT. Am wondering where the percentage of votes counted is coming from?

    “Precinct results are not currently available in Westmoreland County, a heavily Republican part of the district. We’re monitoring the county-level results closely, but for now we can’t responsibly make a forecast without more detailed information about where in Westmoreland County the votes are coming from.”

  176. Waingro says:

    Saccone within 1,000 according to Decision Desk.

    “Its very very tight, with nearly all of Washington and Westmoreland in
    Lamb 100,029
    Saccone 99,306
    557/593 in”

  177. jason says:

    1000 votes

  178. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    179. They claim percentage totals of all the Westmoreland County vote, but not sure how accurate it is without precinct reports.

  179. BayernFan says:


  180. Phil says:


    The only unknown is exactly WHEN the impeachment vote will take place in the House and the House votes to impeach.

    Ok, I’ll start it out. Pelosi and company take over in January. I say by the end of next March. Senate trial begins by the end of May.

  181. Tina says:

    Less than 700

  182. jason says:

    Yep… Lamb under 50% so Libertarian might have screwed it up.

  183. BayernFan says:

    30 precincts left

  184. lisab says:

    i think impeachment is guaranteed if the dems take over

    talk will start now

  185. lisab says:

    libertarian screwed it up

  186. Phil says:


    yep, slam dunk.

  187. Tina says:

    Always the libertarian to screw it up.

  188. BayernFan says:

    Dems will pay dearly for impeaching Trump barring any major Trump disaster.

  189. jason says:

    For example there is a Ward in Elizabeth Township in Allegheny still out, all the other wards were heavily Saccone

  190. Tina says:

    Strabane an issue for saccone.

  191. lisab says:

    Dems will pay dearly for impeaching Trump barring any major Trump disaster.

    how? the dem voters demand/expect it

  192. jason says:

    900 votes…

  193. Tina says:

    Cbaris oredicts lamb to win by 1

  194. Tina says:

    I am so excited for lamb.


  195. lisab says:

    seems the vote counters have called it a night

  196. Phil says:

    Pay for it? How? The media will cover for them.

  197. BayernFan says:

    Independents don’t

  198. Phil says:


    Yes they do. I heard it on CNN.

  199. CG says:

    This recount process will be fun

  200. BayernFan says:

    If the economy is good and the world is quiet…. Dems will pay.

  201. jason says:

    I think Lamb gets another 400 votes from Allegheny difference.

    Puts lead at 1300.

    I think Saccone gets another 600 from what is left at least difference.

    So maybe Lamb wins by 700 votes.

    Worth a recount.

  202. Tgca says:

    Agreed. If Trump impeachment occurs simply if Dems take over House in 2018, then they lose indies in 2020 and get beat in GE badly. Moderates don’t want a farce even though libs base wants it. I’ve been saying this forever.

  203. Tina says:

    I love cnn.


  204. Phil says:

    Dems never pay. Oh, they should but the media hacks will make sure they don’t.

  205. Tina says:

    2020 will not be kind to the ds.

    The florida voter registration numbers are horribke for them.

    Trump is at 54percent in ohio.

    Ohio and Florida are critical.

  206. Tina says:

    They are going to run on taking the tax cuts asay, muh russian hiax, and impeachment,

    Bring it on.

  207. BayernFan says:

    People see through the media. Trump would win that PR battle easily. I doubt the Dems go through with it if they take the House.

  208. lisab says:

    trump would still be impeached

  209. Tina says:

    With a Republican president that does not wet himself like the quittens, the bushes, etc.

  210. lisab says:

    I doubt the Dems go through with it if they take the House.

    i think it could happen quickly

  211. Tina says:

    Trump woukd win florida by 200000 vote margin,

  212. Tina says:

    David Martosko
    You realize, of course, that this entire media freakout is idiotic. The winner will serve for less than a year. The district won’t even exist anymore in 8 months.
    7:05 PM – Mar 13, 2018

    I did not think of this..

  213. Hugh says:

    I think this is over. And it’s a bad sign. Yes it’s a perfect storm poor gop candidate and a good dem candidate but if trump was not such an as s wipe we would win these. What’s frustrating is that his policies are good and he fights back which is good. However he will pick dumb fights showing he lacks any discipline and he offends even much of his base. Most people thought he could pick his battles once he won but he can’t. Very sad because we could dominate if he had an ounce of self-control

  214. Tina says:

    I hope it is sombeody like the female eric holder, eric holder himself, or pocahantas.

  215. BayernFan says:

    First it’s a big if that the Dems take the House. If they do it will be by a narrow margin, with Dems winning in Trump districts. There may be enough Dem defections to defeat impeachment. Those Lamb type Dems will have been campaigning on issues other than impeachment. So I don’t think it will happen. I kinda hope it does actually. Bring it.

  216. Tgca says:

    If the Dem wins tonight, he will be watched to see if he actually votes like he said. If he runs as a Nancy pawn, this can be used against all fake Dems running in the middle in GOP districts. He’ll be in a tight spot. Does he tow the line or vote sensibly with GOP on issues. If he votes moderately, then who cares if he’s a Dem.

  217. Tina says:

    He is not to fault for this debacle. Saccone is, i said so weeks ago.

    Saccone did nothing to separate himself and let lam chop steal all the trump issues.

    Somebody daid its like jeb bush vs trump re this election.

    On paper saccone wins, in reality he loses..

  218. Phil says:

    What some of you are forgetting is there are no moderate Democrats left in the House. They are straight loon right down the line. Any that hold out on impeachment will be primaried.

    I agree impeachment is a stupid strategy but they cannot help themselves. It is who they are.

  219. Tina says:

    Yup, run on impeachement, meaness, muh russian, and taking away the tax cuts.

    As we keep ohio, florida, indiana, wisconsin, etc.

    States that mccain and quittens pissed away.

  220. Phil says:

    ….just like they couldn’t help themselves in trying to recall Walker in Wisconsin.

  221. Tgca says:


    Don’t blame Trump because the local GOP throws a hissy fit and does not vote. They deserve what they get if they’re upset with his tweets but he delivers. Trump has been delivering on his promises this far and better than any other GOP candidate from 2016.

  222. BayernFan says:

    918 votes

  223. Hugh says:

    219. I hope your right but I think there is a decent chance of a bloodbath in the House. We should do okay in the senate

  224. Tgca says:


    What you miss is that the libs can’t win without Indy’s and the Indy’s don’t like extremity on either side. So if they’re only job is to impeach Trump, they lose big time in 2020 assuming all else equal.

  225. Tina says:

    House is problematic. The senate is bettwr.

  226. Phil says:

    I have us losing twenty seats looking at it state by state. Dems need 22 to take control.

    It’s early so it means little at this point.

  227. Tina says:

    Lamb also stated that this election is not about trump. Its a local matter.

  228. Tina says:

    But really mitchie and ryano are not helping. Heck, we have several ambassadors not being boted on. Over a year into his term, and no ambasaador to germany, as an example.

  229. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Good point made on Fox News:

    @MonicaCrowley on #PA18 election: “The lesson going forward then for @TheDemocrats is: If you want to try to get back to an appeal to the working-class voters that helped put #DonaldTrump over the top…then you better change your tune.”

    Are the Republicans going to run a “moderate” pro-gun Democrat against Trump in 2020. Lamb wore an ideological disguise. The Democrats cannot do it nationally.

  230. Tina says:

    GOp in pa say saccone will win by 690 votes..

  231. Waingro says:

    “One of the 7 outstanding Allegheny Co. precincts, Elizabeth Twp. #2, went for Trump 652-320 and is prime Saccone (R) turf. The rest of them are burbs that should break even. Not much insurance for Lamb (D) there. #PA18”

  232. Hugh says:

    225. He’s a mixed bag. Economy is great and he deserves credit. But because he is a very flawed person he is his own worst enemy and his behavior is a bit scary at times. Why does the president care about Arnold S on a stupid tv show? He is a complete as s. How could anyone trust him to have their back? I’m so frustrated because if he wasn’t so slowed as a human being we could so far with him. Having said all that I will vote for him

  233. Tina says:

    No, they are running on mean and ugly, take the tax cuts away, muh russian, and impeachment.

    No positive issue there.

  234. Phil says:


    Agree it is a stupid strategy for exactly the reason you mentioned – independents. Any clear thinking Democrat would agree. My question. Are there any clear thinking Democrats left? All the ones I see are infected by Trump Derangement Syndrome. Every last one of them.

  235. BayernFan says:

    719 votes. 19 precincts left.

  236. Tgca says:

    If GOP loses by less than .05% than this might wake up the GOP to get its house in order. Trump also needs to campaign like crazy and remind folks no other agenda will get done without a GOP house. He needs to remind folks that without a GOP house, there would be no tax cuts and the economy would still be stuck with small growth.

  237. BayernFan says:

    585. 13 left

  238. Tgca says:


    Just saw that

  239. Bitterlaw says:

    Libertarians should just become Democrats. That is the party they work to elect.

  240. Waingro says:

    From a huge MAGA who has been wrong before, so take with a grain of salt:

    “Hearing that Saccone has won by 690 votes.”

  241. Tina says:

    Like that one that ran in 2016?! What was his na,e mcmuffin?

  242. Bitterlaw says:

    Once again, MSNBC has the best map.

  243. Tina says:

    He got it from the pa gop, fwiw.

  244. VictrC says:

    Just taking a quick peek at the map, there are about seven districts out in Washington and one in Alleg. Each of the districts around those out in Washington gave Saccone a 100-300 vote margin, and the Alleg. one a 100 vote margin to Lamb. Taking into account that this could be a 200 vote win one way or the other. How about that folks…

    Btw, did I mention the 1300 votes the Libertarian party members gave for a Pelosi run house?

  245. Waingro says:


    “Bad news: Greene and Washington counties will not be reporting their absentee votes tonight. Votes will be counted and posted tomorrow, per @katiegp.”

  246. BayernFan says:

    are there still absentees to count or anything?

  247. BayernFan says:

    ok!! lol

  248. Tina says:

    4000 absentees.

  249. Tina says:

    4000 touted for allegheny.

  250. BayernFan says:

    700 12 left

  251. Phil says:

    4000 abscentees?

    Ok, from which counties?

  252. Waingro says:

    “We think Saccone will pick up a net-541 votes in the remaining Election Day vote from Wash/Allegheny County (so, excluding Westmoreland).
    Lamb is up by 585”

  253. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Candidate recruitment is crucial. Can anyone say the Democrats did not have a much better candidate in Pennsylvania? Am not talking about their political positions, but appearance and likability.

    In San Diego County, we have two vulnerable Republican House seats that Republicans would normally win big, but are close because both incumbents are horrible. Thankfully one decided not to run again, and the other one is being challenged in the primary.

  254. Phil says:

    SD, are you talking about STATE House seats?

  255. Tina says:

    1000 wa county

  256. BayernFan says:

    755 11 left

  257. Tgca says:

    Allegheny is 1% in according to NYT.
    Washington is 93%
    Westmoreland is 99%

  258. Tgca says:

    Allegheny is100% in I meant

  259. BayernFan says:

    grab something solid

  260. Tina says:

    And Ds have been blown out in AZCD8, everywhere across TX, in EVERY special election in TN.

    Important pockets are showing massive red wave.
    Chad Pergram
    Special election in PA for House seat coming down to the wire. The biggest takeaway tonight, win or lose…shows an energized electorate. The fact that Dems made this close says a lot. But Dems have come up short in 4 other key special elections and haven’t won anything

  261. BayernFan says:

    dems won alabama. that wasn’t nothing.

  262. BayernFan says:

    95. 2 left

  263. Tgca says:

    95 vote diff

  264. BayernFan says:

    2 precincts in Westmoreland left.

  265. VictrC says:

    99 votes…out of 221,129 votes. Let’s pray that a lot of these absentee ballots are from our brave men and women of the Military, which will skew Saccone.

    Stay tuned

  266. Tgca says:

    Westmoreland @99%
    All else @ 100%

  267. BayernFan says:

    those precincts would be handy now lol

  268. Waingro says:

    “Washington now 100% in. Lamb up by 95 votes. Two precincts in Westmoreland plus absentees remaining.”

  269. Tgca says:

    Did they count absentee in other countries yet? Any estimate of outstanding by county?

  270. BayernFan says:

    everyone go check the trunk of your car

  271. phoenixrisen says:


  272. Paul says:

    95 votes. Exactly as I predicted.

  273. Tgca says:

    Nate Cohn thinks absentee votes will lean Lamb as in recent similar elections. Not sure without knowing where they’re out.

  274. Bitterlaw says:

    CNN getting ready to dump in more votes.

  275. DW says:

    At least yesterday’s poll was wrong.

  276. BayernFan says:

    278 from where?

  277. Bitterlaw says:

    Allegheny 752 bo us for Lamb absentee.

  278. BayernFan says:

    bs that WA is not counting absentees till tomorrow.

  279. Phil says:

    uh, what?

  280. BayernFan says:

    so allegheny is done/done at least. now at least got has the overnight to get the votes it needs.

  281. Bitterlaw says:

    Phil – Lamb netted 752 after Allegheny absentee was counted.

  282. BayernFan says:

    allegheny just finished absentee votes. +752 for lamb

  283. Tina says:

    It’s Ovah

  284. BayernFan says:

    wa west Greene counting total of 3206 absentee ballots tomorrow.

    plus the 2 precincts left in Westmoreland tonight.

  285. BayernFan says:

    GOP has a great shot

  286. BayernFan says:

    so 847 vote margin for lamb now with allegheny all in

    3206 absentees plus 2 precincts in GOP counties left to go.

  287. Tina says:

    yan Struyk
    Lamb leads by 847 votes after Allegheny absentees. That leaves 3,201 absentees left to count. Saccone would need to win 61% or so to close the gap. Just more than his 57%, 57% and 53% in those counties already reported.

  288. VictrC says:

    Borussia. Are you sure that those are the outstanding in the other three counties. Can the GOP expect them to go for Saccone.

  289. BayernFan says:

    if he can get 55% of those remaining ballots he will win by about 700 votes

  290. Gpo says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    March 13, 2018 at 10:26 pm
    Libertarians should just become Democrats. That is the party they work to elect.


  291. BayernFan says:

    that is what CNN said:

    Greene 203
    WA: 1195
    West: 1808

  292. Phil says:

    Still have the two “day of” precincts to count?

  293. phoenixrisen says:

    That seems like a tough hill for Saccone to climb.

  294. BayernFan says:

    my math is wrong duh lol

  295. NYCmike says:


  296. Tina says:

    Drew Miller, we are only a few hours away from being the most hated man. He is the libertarian.

  297. VictrC says:

    Bayern, yes, its actually about 63% of the remaining…but that doesn’t count any margin he gains in westmoreland. BTW you didnt bite on the Borussia name LOL. Trying to lighten things up

  298. BayernFan says:

    he would need over 60% of the remaining vote

  299. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Richard Baris
    Without @realDonaldTrump, we were looking at a 2 to 4 point loss for Rick Saccone (at least). Anyone who says he didn’t help him here at that wire, doesn’t know what they are talking about. They have no finger on no pulse. We all know the bleeding stopped over the weekend.

  300. BayernFan says:

    lol…..yeah…. too focused PA

  301. Tina says:

    Borussia? Paging Mulehead.

  302. VictrC says:

    From the Drew Miller Website….”Many voters say they want a representative who is fiscally-conservative and socially-liberal — but they rarely have the option to vote for a candidate like that.”

    So, he’s basically a liberal democrat and he just fooled a number of Libertarian voters into helping make Nancy Pelosi second in line for the Presidency. Nice.

  303. Hugh says:

    Probably about 800 votes in remaining two precincts if the votes are somewhat proportional. Should be razor thin.

  304. BayernFan says:

    Washington is now counting its absentees….scan them tonight…. then hand count…..

    then release the results all at once…..will take several hours.

    1195 absentee ballots.

  305. JC says:

    Saccone needs about 64% of the absentee vote

  306. Hugh says:

    307. They are unicorns as split as this country has become

  307. Tina says:

    Nate Cohn
    .@DecisionDeskHQ says last two Westmoreland precincts are Latrobe2 and NLigonier. Saccone could reasonably hope for net-200 there, brings race down to D+650
    CNN says there are 3206 absentees outstanding in GOP counties. Saccone would need to win those by 20. He didn’t on eday.
    8:12 PM – Mar 13, 2018 · Manhattan, NY

  308. Tina says:


  309. BayernFan says:

    the size/margin of those 2 precincts will hopefully cut down on the number of absentee votes he needs.

  310. BayernFan says:

    1808 absentees in Westmoreland being scanned now…..expect result in 30 minutes.

  311. Tina says:

    Ds hold a 50000 vote advantage in pa 18.

  312. Hugh says:

    112. The dem absentee votes were at a higher margin than the Election Day votes which may hold the same for the rep county absentee ballots. Too bad we didn’t have a better candidate. I agree the trump visit helped but did it offset his obnoxious manner that causes this district to be competitive? Who knows? We are all speculating

  313. VictrC says:

    Bayern, if voting patterns hold out, and he gets net 200 in Westmorland, plus the expected percentage of Westmoreland absentee, then we would be looking at an approximate 275 vote deficit going into the absentees in the other two districts.

    If its that close, you can count on a recount. Why do shades of Al Franken come to mind

  314. Tina says:

    Yeah obnoxious manner in the district is rubbish.

  315. BayernFan says:

    wonder what the problem is in those two Westmoreland precincts.

  316. Tina says:

    Suggests that rain pissed away the goth with a lackluster candidate, Saccone.

    Guy looks like Glover, with 50 lbs packed on him.

  317. Tina says:


  318. Hugh says:

    Don’t agree Tina. His demeanor is not attractive to many who like his policies. I am not suggesting he should not be a fighter and stand up for himself.

  319. Tina says:

    Your statement does not apply here. It is speculation. Have at it though.

  320. Tina says:

    You are blaming him for Saccone being a poor candidate, who was trailing by 6 until Friday. It a drat district too. He did well in it, Saccone not so well.

  321. Tina says:

    While trump won the Democrat district, they are still drat voters. The drat ran as a republican.

    I know he is full of it.

  322. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Phil says:
    March 13, 2018 at 10:38 pm
    SD, are you talking about STATE House seats?

    Congressional seats. Issa and Hunter.

  323. Phil says:

    SD, thanks.

    On my spread sheet I have Rs losing three seats in California and perhaps 4 with issa’s seat definitely gone.

  324. Hugh says:

    Tina are you suggesting that trump is not a polarizing figure that can make non competitive districts competitive? He is a first class jerk and if he could do the good parts while jabbing the press he’s be a total asset. Jabbing dems is not enough. Anyone who slights him no matter what he goes after and it doesn’t help.

  325. Hugh says:

    FWIW. Larry s seems to think the absentee votes in gop counties is more like 6000. No idea why

  326. Cash Cow TM says:

    Drew Miller
    Libertarian 1,351 votes–0.6 of Total Votes

  327. VictrC says:

    Hugh. There is some validity to what you say. If Trump would only stay off Twitter he might be one of the more popular Presidents in awhile. He has been very successful in many policy issues, and Americans love the fact he’s not afraid to stick it to the press and establishment. With that said he does go too far at times.

    The irony in it is that abroad, and a high government level, most officials tell me one thing…he’s winning. An extremely high ranking official of a country you would expect to not be trump friendly at all told me he thought Trump an insane genius and that he wins with everything he does.

    Take that for what it’s worth, but as some know, I am extremely fortunate to deal with such dignitaries, and the reality of what is thought about him at that level is far different than what the media portrays. For better or for worse he’s having an effect.

  328. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    From the Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It appears the key for the Democrats to win is to pretend they are Republicans:

    “Lamb has run at a distance from his national party, vocally opposing Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi and saying he personally opposes abortion, though he has said he will fight to keep it legal in the name of separating church and state. He has played up his military background as a prosecutor in the Marines while pledging to fight for unions, pensions and health care.

    “Whether it’s the pensions of a union member or the Social Security and Medicare benefits of every American, these programs reflect the hard work and pay of people over decades, decades in which you all built this country,” Mr. Lamb told a crowd of union members in Greene County on Sunday. “You left it here for us to take on to the next generation. We are ready to step up and keep the promises that we made.”

  329. Tgca says:

    100% all precincts in and 569 diff or.2%. It’s up to the absentee ballots now I guess, depending where they’re out.

  330. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “Phil says:
    March 13, 2018 at 11:45 pm
    SD, thanks.

    On my spread sheet I have Rs losing three seats in California and perhaps 4 with issa’s seat definitely gone.”

    Don’t write off the Issa seat just yet. His seat includes an area of Orange County that votes Republican; and an areas of San Diego County which vote Democratic,

    Kristin Gaspar, the chair of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors is running for Issa’s seat. Two years ago she defeated a Democratic incumbent in the area of San Diego County that is part of Issa’s district.
    She is very popular; her fund raising is doing well — have been supporting her.

  331. JC says:

    Tgca says:
    March 14, 2018 at 12:04 am
    100% all precincts in and 569 diff or.2%. It’s up to the absentee ballots now I guess, depending where they’re out.

    If so then Saccone needs to win 59% of the absentee vote to pull ahead.

  332. Tgca says:

    333 SDC

    That’s what I believe the Dem strategy is, to run like a moderate but the problem with that is they can’t win primaries that way in most places since the radical lefties will dominate in the primaries and want the most et lefty candidate.

    Also, if Lamb wins, will he be able to buck Pelosi and vote as a moderate. If he does, no problem but my guess he won’t which means the GOP can use this as proof that fake Dem moderates say one thing to get elected but another when voting, and that will hurt Dems as well.

  333. JC says:

    Assuming there are 3206 absentee votes.

    Hopefully these skew to the military.

  334. BayernFan says:

    now only 1398 absentee ballots left

  335. BayernFan says:

    uphill….maybe recount?

  336. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    339. “Hopefully these skew to the military.”

    Maybe, but Lamb has a military background that may appeal to many military voters.

  337. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    336. As far as Duncan Hunter, Bill Wells, the Mayor of El Cajon, is challenging him in the Republican primary. There is a major effort by Republicans to get Hunter to not run again.

  338. MichiganGuy says:

    ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗

    A federal appeals court has upheld the bulk of a Texas law targeting “sanctuary cities” that is backed by the Trump administration as part of a crackdown on illegal immigration.

    The ruling Tuesday by a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans allows Texas to enforce what critics call the toughest state-level immigration measure in the country.

    The law allows police officers to ask people during routine stops whether they’re in the U.S. legally and threatens sheriffs with jail time for not cooperating with federal immigration authorities.

    ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗ ❗

  339. MichiganGuy says:

    “The 17-year-old suspect said he had recently converted to Islam and admitted watching extremist videos online about jihadists that encourage death to non-believers before the attack in which a 13-year-old boy died, a probable cause affidavit says. The FBI, the Jupiter Police Department and school district police had investigated the teen suspect last year because of concerns about the violent videos and his alleged “violent tendencies,” Palm Beach Gardens interim police chief Clint Shannon said at a Monday press conference.”
    Once again, fbi knows of a threat and does nothing to stop it. 🙄

  340. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    332. “The irony in it is that abroad, and a high government level, most officials tell me one thing…he’s winning. An extremely high ranking official of a country you would expect to not be trump friendly at all told me he thought Trump an insane genius and that he wins with everything he does.”

    VictrC, have to agree. Don’t know if he is effective despite being loony, or because of it. But he battles on issues that other Republicans would just blush about.

  341. Tim says:

    I bet the RNC and affiliated Conservative groups wish now that they had kept their money. The DNC spent practically nothing on this race.

  342. Tina says:

    329 I am suggesting that your claim as applied in this district race, pa 18, is not correct. Saccone sucked as a candidate. Looks like he never even tried to appeal to those in coal in the district. Your claim is far fetched and Dottie liked. The guy also had trouble raising money down the stretch. He raised 600,k vs nearly $3 million for blue fraud.

  343. Chicon says:

    Last night’s race was part of the price of averting the disaster known as President Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    Republican lite edged out Captain Kangaroo.

  344. Michael says:

    Last night sucked.

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