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Hogan Leads Jealous By 16% in MD

Last week, Democrat Ben Jealous was claiming he was only trailing Republican Governor Larry Hogan by 9% in the state of Maryland. Today, Gonzales Research is showing a much larger deficit for Jealous.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Gonzales)
Larry Hogan (R-inc) 52%
Ben Jealous (D) 36%

This poll was done August 1-8 among 831 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:22 am
Filed under: General | Comments (150)

150 Responses to “Hogan Leads Jealous By 16% in MD”

  1. Tom says:

    Due. Ben Jealous – what a perfect name for a liberal.

  2. Todd McCain says:

    I do find it very ironic that most of the GOP Blue State Governors are coasting to re-election — MA, VT and MD (except Rauner; despite a tough environment.

  3. Jeff G. says:

    Todd,

    I believe all of those governors (MA, VT, and MD) have completely repudiated President Trump and never supported him to begin with. They read the blue state mood toward Trump and kept their distance from the start. Plus, they have all governed their states effectively.

  4. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV SUPREME COURT UPDATE

    This morning, Justice Robin Davis announced that she has resigned from the SC.

    She spent $500,000 on the renovation of her office at the capitol.

    I hear her office is about 10 feet by 20 feet in size.

    So…
    Justice Ketchum has resigned a few months ago, Justice Loughery has been suspended from the SC without pay awaiting fed trial on 23 count indictment.

    Articles of impeachment have been passed by the House yesterday against Justices Workman, Davis, Loughery and Walker.

  5. DW says:

    Rasmussen 50/49 today

  6. DW says:

    Gravis – TN senate:

    Bredesen 44
    Blackburn 48

  7. mnw says:

    DW 7

    You bastid! Foiled again! I’m always 1 minute late.

  8. Todd McCain says:

    Wasn’t really ever worried about TN; very bullish on our senate opportunities in IN, MO, ND, FL. I think Heller hangs on due to the fact that the dems nominated a disaster of a candidate and as long as McSally is the AZ nominee, I think that one will turn out OK.

    I expect Memendez to win, but Hugin is just clobbering this guy on the airwaves 24/7.

  9. DW says:

    lol–and this is probably really a strong poll for Blackburn given Gravis hasn’t had much of any good news for the GOP of late.

  10. Todd McCain says:

    I expect Manchin and Tester to survive.

  11. mnw says:

    It looks as if, POSSIBLY, that TN MAY be clarifying now that the primary is finally over.

    Agree that Gravis is NOT GOP user-friendly, fer shur.

    MN SEN-B:

    Primary still ahead. Appt DEM SEN Tina Smith is getting pounded by an Ocasio-clone far to her left, & that may be playing into Housley’s (R) recent improved showing against Smith…maybe.

    Next sleeper GOP guy to emerge as a potential winner? That will be Rosendale in MT, I suspect.

  12. mnw says:

    TN GOV:

    Gravis also has Lee (R) +11 over Dean (DEM), 51-40.

  13. mnw says:

    TN

    Gravisalso has Trump JA in TN at 54-41, which sounds too good to be twue to me. (5% UND).

    The poll size was 620 LVs, which is smallish. And the methodology sounds odd at a minimum, “online cell phone panel” + “interactive voice” responses.

  14. Tina says:

    Mikas face 2.0′

    Where is blobbie or wobbles?

    Omarosa you are a dog.

  15. Tina says:

    Rudy

    Brennan must go in front of a grand jury.

  16. Waingro says:

    NEW JERSEY CD03 POLL: US House election
    All potential voters:
    @RepTomMacArthur (R) 41
    @AndyKimNJ (D) 40

    Likely voters:
    Standard model – MacArthur 44 / Kim 45
    Dem-surge model – MacArthur 43 / Kim 46

    #NJ03 #Midterms2018

  17. Tina says:

    Ramps

    Trump @ 50

  18. Redmen4ever says:

    Last night, Morning Consult updated its Trump JA numbers by state. Trump is above water in FL, IN, MO, MT and ND and well above water in TN and WV. He breaks even in AZ and OH, and is a little below water in NV and PA.

    Republicans should outperform Trump’s numbers; that is, combine Trump’s support with Never-Trump Republican support (of course, not all will). Accordingly, based only on Trump’s JA numbers, I think we hold all our Senate seats considered to be in play (AZ, NV and TN), and pick up seven seats (FL, IN, MO, MT, ND, OH and WV), with AZ dependent on the outcome of the primary and NV and OH being toss-ups.

  19. Phil says:

    Good polling numbers today. Very encouraging.

  20. Tina says:

    According to fl guy,

    The Rs are killing the ds in early voting in Florida.

    The ds have lost a lot of voters since 2016.

  21. Tina says:

    BOOM! FLA Early Voting with Absentee ballots almost equals 2014 numbers. GOP with a 43,498 vote lead. GOP 46.7%, DEM 39.1%.

    — Florida Guy (@floridaguy267) August 14, 2018

  22. DW says:

    Monmouth – VA_02

    “Almost every sampling model shows incumbent Scott Taylor in deep trouble against his challenger, Elaine Luria.”

    People from all over the world model:

    Elaine Luria 52
    Scott Taylor 38

    People who live in the USA model:

    Elaine Luria 50
    Scott Taylor 43

    People who live in northern VA model:

    Elaine Luria 52
    Scott Taylor 41

    People who live in VA_02 model:

    Elaine Luria 48
    Scott Taylor 44

    Likely voters in VA_02 model:

    Elaine Luria 42
    Scott Taylor 47

    Democrat surge model:

    Elaine Luria 47
    Scott Taylor 45

    Scott Taylor caught in a huge sex scandal model:

    Elaine Luria 52
    Scott Taylor 38

    Scott Taylor also caught in a Ponzi scheme scandal model:

    Elaine Luria 58
    Scott Taylor 29

    Scott Taylor also found guilty of 1st degree murder model:

    Elaine Luria 78
    Scott Taylor 14

  23. mnw says:

    DW 23

    That’s funny.

  24. DW says:

    Just trying to illustrate the bias and frankly silliness of Monmouth trying to tweak all these numbers to cheerlead what they want to happen.

  25. DW says:

    back in 2010 there were no pollsters offering up a GOP surge model

  26. Mr.Vito says:

    Gallup

    47% of Democrats view capitalism positively
    57% of Democrats view socialism positively

  27. Mr.Vito says:

    What I just posted should be all that is needed to motivate Republicans to vote en masse…

  28. NYCmike says:

    I keep telling my friend’s kids, whenever we see them…….”don’t worry about getting straight A’s, just make sure your teachers believe in socialism, like your parents do”.

  29. DW says:

    A little dated (8/1) but in TX_32 GBA Strategies has Sessions ahead 47/45

  30. SusyQue says:

    if someone would get ANTQUEEFA under control and put in jail as domestic terrorists,there would not have been a death in Charlottesville last year.those thugs run rampant through peaceful speaking and peaceful protests,burn stuff down,beat up people with bike locks and get away with it,with no consequences at all.that’s the real problem.

    In Him

  31. Redmen4ever says:

    Q poll: thank ( entry of choice ) for live caller polls!

    In this day of Russia Collusion, you cannot believe automated caller or internet polls. And, we should get rid of the Australian ballot as well. Force the white bastards and their sycophants of color to openly display their racism.

  32. SusyQue says:

    I for one am grateful that there is a real man in the White House that tells it like it is. I’m fed up with the so called articulate speakers that say everything and do nothing (ooo and bj). So he calls names! Good! They are what he calls them. At least he is speaking truth. We’ve had decades of speech readers. Now we have a man that speaks from experience and from the heart AND GETS IT DONE!!!

    May God Bless Mr Donald J Trump!

  33. Jeff G. says:

    God bless whoever holds the presidency. John 3:16 doesn’t include a corollary that excludes democrats or socialists. He loves us all.

  34. GPO says:

    DW says:

    August 14, 2018 at 1:49 pm

    A little dated (8/1) but in TX_32 GBA Strategies has Sessions ahead 47/45

    is that good?

  35. Mr.Vito says:

    “is that good?”

    It’s lean R, and GBA supports progressive messaging.

  36. NYCmike says:

    https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2018/08/14/oh-god-lol-meet-the-democratic-gubernatorial-candidate-who-just-got-david-hoggs-blessing/

    -Not sure if this is a joke or not……but I do like the cut of this kid’s chin……a veritable young Augustus Caesar in the making!

  37. Wes says:

    The anti-choicers are hitting Manchin on abortion:

    https://www.sba-list.org/home/sba-list-launches-785k-tv-radio-ad-campaign-to-educate-west-virginia-voters-on-sen-manchins-record

    Dems have often been successful in WV by pretending to toe the anti-choice line. If a major advocacy group for that position is targeting Manchin, that may help erode Manchin’s credentials as a supposedly “conservative” Democrat.

  38. Wes says:

    I’m beginning to wonder if Nelson isn’t just going through the motions of a reelection campaign after realizing Scott will not be outspent, outworked, or defined:

    https://www.tampabay.com/article/20180813/ARTICLE/308139752/1071

    This is looking more and more like the Bill Roth-Tom Carper race in 2000.

  39. Wes says:

    Further bad news for the Invisible Senator, Bill Nelson:

    https://twitter.com/BonillaJL/status/1029313886443462656

    If he’s not dominating among Florida Latinos, then Nelson is a political Dead Man Walking.

  40. DW says:

    40 – Wes, I saw that. His campaign is starting to remind me of some we have seen in the past where an incumbent just says to self…I am tired of all this, everybody knows what I am about, they will either vote to send me back, or vote to send me to the country club, and honestly I don’t care which.

  41. Wobbles says:

    Generic ballot average down to just 3.9.”

    Hmmm…. but not panicking yet.

    Let’s move the goal posts to the Toupee predictions, forget my previous favorite, the RCP average.

  42. Wes says:

    This passes for reasoned analysis on RRH:

    Lucas Black August 14, 2018 at 11:01 am | In reply to CuseFan

    What would be really weird is if we lost TX and gained FL.

    Where do I begin?

  43. NYCmike says:

    “The anti-choicers”

    -Orwell would be proud!

  44. Wes says:

    Gary Johnson is running for Senate in NM:

    https://twitter.com/GovGaryJohnson/status/1029430549214056448

    Johnson was a successful two-term Governor in the state and left office with high approval ratings. He would definitely be an upgrade over Lightweight Heinrich.

  45. NYCmike says:

    Wes,

    That makes it a 3-way in New Mexico?

    You will be all over that one!

  46. jason says:

    Luntz is no fan of Trump, but is not getting sucked into Omarosa’s garbage.

    Frank Luntz

    I’m in @Omarosa’s book on page 149. She claims to have heard from someone who heard from me that I heard Trump use the N-word.

    Not only is this flat-out false (I’ve never heard such a thing), but Omarosa didn’t even make an effort to call or email me to verify. Very shoddy work.”

  47. Wes says:

    46 comes from the guy who thinks voters should have to cede their right to choose nominees to fringe activists at a convention.

    Positively orwellian and fascist.

    You have a poster of Mussolini hanging over your bed, haven’t you, Mikey?

  48. Todd McCain says:

    This O’Rourke guy is raising a ton of cash and has a lot of enthusiasm but I still cant see Cruz losing.

  49. Wes says:

    RRH is speculating the Republican may drop out and let Johnson replace him on the GOP line (assuming the legality of that in NM). That would markedly improve GOP chances against one of the most ineffectual members of the Senate.

  50. Wes says:

    Todd, if Cruz lost, then the GOP would be dropping to two to four Senators in the Class One seats. Blackburn, McSally, and Heller would be already doomed.

  51. jason says:

    Johnson was a successful two-term Governor in the state and left office with high approval ratings.”

    That was way before he got reincarnated as a crackpot dimwit.

    Personally, I wouldn’t vote for him for dogcatcher, let alone senator.

  52. Wes says:

    So you’d prefer NM continue to effectively have only one Senator considering Heinrich has done nothing but enjoy the perks of being a Senator for the past few years, Jason?

  53. Wes says:

    Kudos to some RRHers for smacking down a Dem who tried to pretend Katrina was a latebreaking occurrence that came after Dems had already opened up a decent lead on the generic ballot in 2006.

  54. NYCmike says:

    “46 comes from the guy who thinks voters should have to cede their right to choose nominees to fringe activists at a convention.”

    -Wes,

    Is it illegal? Were the voters able to reverse the politicians decision to choose candidates in that way?

    Of course you already know the answer.

    NOW, tell us again how you want only your preferred candidates to be allowed to run, or else you will have a case of the (bull)sh*ts?

  55. Wes says:

    Post one comment of mine saying I want only my preferred candidates to run, Mikey. I have repeatedly said primaries should ALWAYS be the method of choosing nominees. However, while I vociferously defend the right of voters to choose candidates in the primaries when they pick your Deadender heroes such as Christine O’Donnell and Corey Stewart, I do not hold them or their choices above criticism.

  56. Wes says:

    Denying voters a voice in selecting their own political representatives wasn’t illegal when Mussolini did it either, Mikey. Clearly you think Mussolini was right since Mike Lee and the Tea Party took a page right out of his totalitarian playbook.

  57. Wes says:

    RRH is moving NM-Sen to Lean Libertarian.

    I would have to see actual polling on the race before I took it off my current Likely D Hold ranking.

  58. Wes says:

    Dems are now defending spousal abuse by their Senators:

    roguemapper August 14, 2018 at 3:49 pm | In reply to rayinma

    Now that’s just silly. The GOP can’t make these issues stick with Brown and Carper, much less anyone else. I would bet that there isn’t a single voter outside Ohio and Delaware who would be persuaded to vote differently than they already will. The GOP would be committing political malpractice if it spends a dime on that, so of course I think they should go all out!

    PS. I’ll be very surprised if Grayson wins the FL-09 primary.
    Dem NC-11

  59. Wes says:

    Dems tried this same thing against Ron Johnson to prop up a failing nominee in 2016:

    https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/campaign-2018-another-ethics-complaint-filed-against-dean-heller/

    I hope it works out just as well for them now as then.

  60. jason says:

    So you’d prefer NM continue to effectively have only one Senator considering Heinrich has done nothing but enjoy the perks of being a Senator for the past few years, Jason?”

    What I actually said was I think Gary Johnson is a nutcase and I don’t vote for nutcases.

  61. jason says:

    However, since Gary Johnson is running as a Libertarian, if he wins he will make an ass of himself as a libertarian.

    I can see the benefits of that.

  62. jason says:

    Wes, you know by now NYC will fight to the death to ensure deadender candidates get the support they need to deliver winnable seats to moonbat Democrats.

  63. NYCmike says:

    “Clearly you think Mussolini was right since Mike Lee and the Tea Party took a page right out of his totalitarian playbook.”

    -Ok, so this sentence shows the seriousness of your argument.

    Should I assume that Mike Lee was killed by his constituents, since that is usually the only way to get rid of tyrants who “deny” the voters their chance to pick their elected representatives?

    Or, as I asked before, do you just have another case of the (bull)sh*ts?

  64. mnw says:

    Troll activity varies inversely with good GOP polling.

  65. DW says:

    69 – yep. And there is reverse logic that works there too…sort of like in Geometry class, and all those theorems we had to learn:

    1. If two parallel lines are cut by a transversal, then the alternate interior angles are congruent.

    2. If the interior angles created by a transversal cutting across two lines are congruent, then the two lines are parallel.

  66. janz says:

    Well, I guess it pays well to be a fired, corrupt FBI agent as Peter Strzok has now received over $330.000 in the go-fund-me page he put up, relieving him of lost income and attorney fees.

  67. janz says:

    Sadly, some friends and I put up a go-fund-me page to finance a special wheelchair for someone who had both legs amputated. At my last look it had only grown to $6000+. Graft, lying and arrogance appears to win out over medical need.

  68. mnw says:

    Mike Lee & Mussolini:

    I just don’t care. There are dozens of features of American govt where simple majority rule doesn’t apply. I’m saving my outrage for some other issue.

  69. Redmen4ever says:

    Comstock only down 3.

    Bwha-ha-ha!

    Snowflakes, you better walk away!

    Blue Wave’s comin’, hide your heart, girl
    Blue Wave’s comin’, hide your heart, girl

    Blue Wave’s comin’, better walk
    Walk but you’ll never get away
    No, you’ll never get away
    From the burnin’ a-heartache
    When the election’s stole away

  70. Chicon says:

    So, what are we looking for in tonight’s primaries, on both sides? Anything to watch? I know Robbie’s answer – DOOM!!

    Any other hot takes?

  71. Tina says:

    Wired Sources
    @WiredSources
    5h
    JUST IN: President Trump’s Twitter account grew by 18 million new followers in past year

  72. Bitterlaw says:

    Janz – Can you post a link to the GFM page.

  73. Paul says:

    76: Where’s tonight’s primaries?

  74. Bitterlaw says:

    I regret to inform you that Maxwell Day passed without fanfare on Sunday. I lost track of the date.

    GFY.

  75. JeffP says:

    I never been so excited to vote in a mid term in my life. IN will deliver Braun to the Senate.

  76. mnw says:

    Chicon 81

    I knew throughout the day that things were headed in that direction, but I’m still surprised by the suddenness of the end. There are still a bunch of counties which haven’t reported their provisional votes yet.

    Mega NHL dittoes, btw.

  77. mnw says:

    JeffP

    Sure hope u r right. Not much polling data from the banks of the Wabash so far.

  78. Cash Cow TM says:

    I am still looking for that lost Malaysian airliner that disappeared a year or so ago.

    But I only look for it one day a month now.

  79. Proud Obamacon says:

    Wow, our very own janz making headlines!

    Janz 47%, Nunes 47%

    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/docs/ca22-tulchin.pdf

    #RESIST
    #RESIST!!!

  80. Proud Obamacon says:

    “JUST IN: President Trump’s Twitter account grew by 18 million new followers in past year”

    Comrade Putin opening up new troll factories!

    #WORST.PRESIDENT.EVAHHH

  81. mnw says:

    Pimp your own blog much?

    Big demand for the wit & wisdom of troll Cory, I bet. /s

  82. CG says:

    You get even dumber and ornerier in retirement.

    I post one link, (as it’s better than cutting and pasting the entire post) once a day and I have done this every two years on here going back to 2016. It really doesn’t matter to me if people choose to read it or not. It’s quite easy to skip over a post, and as we can see, there are not exactly a ton of posts on here anymoer.

    You would post 10 links a day on here asking people to buy the book “Mexifornia.”

  83. CG says:

    Going back to 2006* (not 2016)

  84. BayernFan says:

    86.. that was over 4 years ago

  85. mnw says:

    BF

    Any thoughts about state of IN SEN race?

  86. Blobbie says:

    Early Voting with Absentee ballots almost equals 2014 numbers. GOP with a 43,498 vote lead. GOP 46.7%, DEM 39.1%.

    – This obviously indicates that Trump has dragged the Florida GOP down.

    If it was not for Trump, the GOP would have 100% of the votes

  87. Bitterlaw says:

    The Phillies lost to the Red Sox. Damn.

  88. jason says:

    I think CG’s race by race analysis is fair and even handed, I have no objection if he posts the link here. If you don’t want to read it, ignore it.

    Sue me.

  89. NYCmike says:

    https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/08/14/cnns-chyron-doesnt-quite-match-up-with-what-sarah-huckabee-sanders-said-about-the-n-word/?utm_campaign=twitchywidget

    -“CG”,

    Imagine if all “racists” pushed policies such as Trump, along with a Republican Congress, has pushed!

  90. NYCmike says:

    I have left “CG” several comments when I thought warranted.

  91. NYCmike says:

    Egg cremes for everyone, even the A-Holes and #NeverTrumpers!

  92. NYCmike says:

    I wonder: Is that story in New Mexico affecting the local races there?

    Nationally, the media put a pillow over it. I wonder if local news is more interested. And whom will it help?

  93. CG says:

    Tim Pawlenty has lost the primary in Minnesota for Governor.

  94. NYCmike says:

    And?

    Looks like he lost it decisively.

  95. NYCmike says:

    And the vote totals are like 1/2 what the Democrats had.

    AND, Ellison won with 50% so far!

  96. janz says:

    “Janz – Can you post a link to the GFM page.”

    Bitter, I’m not sure if this was the link you wanted or not….

    https://www.gofundme.com/francis-richard-wheel-chair-fund

  97. janz says:

    “Janz – Can you post a link to the GFM page.”

    Bitter, I’m not sure if this was the link you wanted or not….

    https://www.gofundme.com/francis-richard-wheel-chair-fund

  98. Bitterlaw says:

    Thank you, Janz.

    Come on, HHR. Let’s help this man and his family out.

  99. Messy says:

    3. The reason that is is because these people are what you’d call RINOs. Hogan, for example, REFUSED to let the Maryland National Guard anywhere near the Mexican border when ICE was kidnapping little children from their mommies and daddies, same with Charlie Baker, who’d be considered a moderate Democrat in most states.

  100. Todd McCain says:

    Seems like the establishment got their candidate in #WISEN. Didn’t pay too much attention to the MN races.

  101. Messy says:

    Just got hold of a series 2017 dollar bill. Steve Mnuchin doesn’t have a signature, he PRINTS his name, the they forced the last guy to learn to sign his name properly for the 2013 series bills.

    this is supposed to be a conservative blog, isn’t penmanship important?

  102. Bitterlaw says:

    The Pennsylvania report on the abuse by priests is appalling. As I said years ago, the guilty priests should be beheaded on Good Friday.

  103. Messy says:

    Yes indeed it is. The scandal was first uncovered by the Boston Globe, which is what Trump and Tina would call “the Liberal Media” and what the church called “fake News,” at least initially.

    Just be glad no one defends this sort of thing anymore.

  104. DW says:

    Once again Emerson a little off. I suppose they could say they got Pawlenty’s share right on the money:

    Pawlenty 43
    Johnson 34

    actual:

    Pawlenty 43
    Johnson 52

  105. Todd McCain says:

    Curbelo 48

    Powell 41

    and this is a DCCC poll!

  106. DW says:

    BOOM – FL_26:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1029723084826263552
    New DCCC poll: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) 48, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) 41.

    Most had this Tossup including Cook who just moved it to Lean R

  107. DW says:

    and FL_26 is still below the magic line:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ——————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | RRH | Kos | Avg Scr. — Latest Poll R/D
    ——————————————————————————-
    OK_05 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.7 —
    OH_15 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.7 —
    PA_14* D | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.4 —
    NC_08 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.1 —
    IN_09 R | 153 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 —
    CA_22 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 — 49/41 (PPP) |48/43 (Tulchin)
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 —
    OH_10 R | 156 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 —
    NY_23 R | 157 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | 5.1 —
    AZ_06 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.1 —
    AZ_08 R | 159 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.1 —
    TX_31 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8 — 46/40 (PPP)
    CO_03 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 —
    MO_02 R | 162 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 —
    CA_50 R | 163 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 — 51/42 (Tulchin Res.)
    SC_01 R | 164 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    FL_15* R | 165 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    IN_02 R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    FL_06* R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    MI_01 R | 168 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    NC_02 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    OH_14 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    CA_04 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    WA_03 R | 172 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 42/37 (Lake R.)
    PA_16 R | 173 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2 — 48/43 (PPP) | 50/44 (D-Int)
    WI_06 R | 174 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    FL_25 R | 175 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 46/39 (St. Pete)
    MI_07 R | 176 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 41/37 (DCCC-D)
    TX_21* R | 177 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2 — 33/27 (Chg Res.)
    GA_07 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    FL_18 R | 179 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    NY_24 R | 180 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 43/47 (PPP-D)
    MI_06 R | 181 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    FL_16 R | 182 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | 3.7 — 49/37 (PPP)
    CA_21 R | 183 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    PA_10 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.4 —
    IL_14 R | 185 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.4 — 45/41 (PPP)
    IL_13 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.4 — 45/42 (PPP)
    NY_01 R | 187 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.4 —
    GA_06* R | 188 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.1 —
    VA_05 R | 189 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8 —
    AR_02 R | 190 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.8 — 47/42 (PPP)
    NY_11 R | 191 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8 —
    NC_13 R | 192 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2 — 43/40 (PPP) | 40/35 (Civitas)
    MT_01 R | 193 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | 2.2 — 43/49 (Gravis)
    NJ_03 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 42/42 (GSG-D) | 41/40 (Monmouth)
    WA_05 R | 195 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 44/38 (elway)
    OH_01 R | 196 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 43/42 (PPP)
    VA_02 R | 197 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 48/42 (PPP)
    NM_02* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 49/35 (Carroll Strategies)
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | 1.7 — 41/43 (Monmouth)
    UT_04 R | 200 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7 — 47/43 | 45/39 (Salt Lake Trib.)
    ME_02 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4 — 45/35 |40/39 (D-Int)
    WI_01* R | 202 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4 —
    NE_02 R | 203 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 1.2 —
    KS_03 R | 204 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.1 —
    MI_08 R | 205 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.1 — 46/41 (PPP) |45/39 (Target Ins)
    TX_32 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.1 — 47/45 (GBA)
    IL_06 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1 — 45/44 (Garin-Hart-D) | 44/37 (Victory Res.)
    PA_01 R | 208 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1 — 49/42
    IA_03 R | 209 | Toss | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.8 — 44/43 (PPP) | 41/45 (D-Int.)
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 —
    KS_02* R | 211 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.8 — 34/39 (Mellman-D)
    IL_12 R | 212 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 — 44/39 (PPP)
    MN_03 R | 213 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 — 43/46 (PPP)
    OH_12* R | 214 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7 — 48/43 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (D-Inc) 48/44 (PPP)
    TX_07 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7 — 47/45 (D-Int.) | 37/31 incum. fav. (GSG-D)
    NJ_07 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.7 — 41/42 (PPP) | 45/47 (GQR-D)
    CA_45 R | 217 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.5 — 43/46 (PPP) | 45/44 (D-Int)
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    KY_06 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.5 —
    NC_09* R | 217 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4 — 42/37 (PPP) | 36/43 (Civitas) | 43/44 (D-Int)
    NY_19 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4 — 41/43 (PPP) |49/44 (IMGE)
    FL_26 R | 215 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.4 — 45/40 (DCCC-D) |48/41 (DCCC-D)
    TX_23 R | 214 | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 44/43 (PPP)
    IA_01 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2 — 41/43 (D Internal)
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2 — 51/45 (GBA)
    CA_10 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 48/37 (ALG-D) | 48/48 (GHY-D)
    CA_25 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 49/42 (Srat. 360-D) | 45/40 (GSG-D) | 47/47 (IMGE)
    CA_48 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 48/44 (D-Internal) | 45/47 (Monmouth)
    CO_06 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 45/47 (D-Int) | (45/45 IMGE)
    NY_22 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 40/47 (Zogby)
    MN_01* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    MN_02 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 43/42 (PPP)
    MN_08* D | 204 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    CA_39* R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 41/38 (Remington-R) | 45/43 (DCCC-D)
    MI_11* R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | -0.5 — 42/45 (PPP)
    PA_17 R | 201 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | -0.8 — 39/51 (Monmouth)
    PA_07* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | -1 —
    NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -1.2 — 42/40 (PPP) | 38/40 (Monmouth)
    VA_10 R | 198 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.4 — 39/49 (Monmouth)
    CA_49* R | 197 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.4 — 41/44 (Feldman) | 46/43 (R-Int)
    NH_01* D | 196 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | -1.5 —
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.5 —
    NV_03* D | 194 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.8 —
    FL_27* R | 193 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.5 —
    NV_04* D | 192 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.5 — 37/42 (D Internal)
    AZ_01 D | 191 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.7 —
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.1 —
    MN_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.4 —
    PA_08 D | 188 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.4 —
    NJ_05 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.7 —
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.7 —
    CA_07 D | 185 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -4.2 — 41/50 (POS)
    NJ_02* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.2 — 39/44 (PPP)
    CT_05* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Toss | Ln D | -4.2 —
    PA_05* R | 182 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8 —
    AZ_09* D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -4.8 —
    NH_02 D | 180 | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -4.8 —
    CA_24 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.1 — 46/47 (Olive Tree St.)
    NY_18 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.1 —
    WI_03 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.4 —
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.4 —
    NY_25 D | 175 | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.4 —
    FL_13 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    OR_05 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —

    *indicates open seat

  108. Cash Cow TM says:

    Honk.
    Personally, I like the green grass.

    But this is ree-dik-a-lus.

    Walt has to mow several times a week.

    We have entered a season where all you do is just one of the three stooges:

    No Larry, no Curly…

    …But we have lots of MOW, MOW, MOW.

  109. mnw says:

    DW

    I have been posting for a long time that Emerson polls are just unreliable– always & everywhere. Good or bad.

  110. jason says:

    this is supposed to be a conservative blog, isn’t penmanship important?”

    “the they forced the last guy”

    LOL

    Messy, give this a shot, only 3 weeks, maybe it will help

    https://www.adultreadingprogram.com/

  111. DW says:

    mnw, and Emerson is not alone in that regard. Siena, normally a reliably consistent pollster of NY state had the worst breakdown of any pollster I have seen for some time in the NY primary. The sort of breakdown where they euthanize the thoroughbred horse right on the track before hauling it away.

  112. Todd McCain says:

    Josh Kraushaar??Verified account? @HotlineJosh · 37m37 minutes ago

    ? More

    .@redistrict: “Recent campaign polling shows Reps. David Valadao (CA-21), Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Will Hurd (TX-23) with impressive initial leads in districts Hillary Clinton carried.”

  113. Todd McCain says:

    I think the House is a coin flip, but it doesn’t seem the DEMS are winning the low hanging fruit districts they need to based on recent polling.

  114. Messy says:

    120. “When you wish to attack someone for saying something you agree with, go after typos.”

    It also hurts your credibility.

  115. Todd McCain says:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

    Woah! Even fake news CNN has Trump’s approval going to 44%.

  116. janz says:

    #108. Bitter, I’m actually taken aback by your interest and generosity of spirit.

  117. mnw says:

    janz 126

    What is the shorthand summary of this? Do you know the recipient of the GoFundMe effort?

    I always prefer to just mail a check, whenever possible– as opposed to providing personal info. I even do that with donations to Hawley.

  118. Tina says:

    Cnn is not fake news.

    I am appalled at that accusation.

    Jebot

  119. mnw says:

    IN SEN:

    Trafalgar:

    Donnelly (D) 51
    Braun(R) 39

    (I rounded to nearest whole number. Trafalgar has traditionally been regarded as a GOP-leaning pollster)

  120. janz says:

    Mnw

    He and his wife are both hardworking chefs working at a small northern coastal CA Inn. He’s suffering from the ramifications of diabetes, and first had one leg amputated, with the other one taken earlier this year. He needs a special W/C that will rise up to a counter level so he can prepare and cook food.

    My husband and I have dined at this eatery quite a few time with friends, even though we drive on a curvy 25 mile hwy to get there. Also, francois’s wife is a trooper and has literally done all the heavy lifting for some time – having a disabled husband and a mom with altzhrimers to look after. Her only son works for a local winery so Marie at least gets a break from the wine they serve.

  121. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Today’s Columbus Dispatch claims that of the 5,000+ absentee ballots received after election day in the recent OH CD-12 race, only about 400 will be counted. No determination has been announced regarding the proximate 3,400 provisional ballots received.
    The article says that O’Connor(D) would have to receive about 80% of the post-election ballots received in order to prevail.
    O’Connor’s camp hopes to receive enough of the remaining ballots in order to request a recount.(In this case, about a thousand votes or less difference; .5% of about 205,000 votes cast. Balderson’s(R) lead at this time is 1,564 votes.)
    IMHO, O’Connor would be politically foolish to request a recount with a return match pending in about 75 days. He would come across as a sore loser.

  122. mnw says:

    janz 131

    OK, I’m in.

    You don’t have a physical address where I could donate, do you? If not, I’ll do it through GoFundMe. It irritates me that GFM requires a donor to include his/her email address, however.

  123. DW says:

    132 – exactly. The Dem would be smarter to push his supporters saying how close he got. ‘If everyone would just knock on one more door…’

    But demanding a recount when one is already scheduled 2.5 months…

  124. Redmen4ever says:

    More on that Trafalgar poll: this was a issue poll, the issue being Kavanaugh.

    IF Donnelly vote FOR Kavanaugh, his margin falls to 1 point (39.4 to 38.5). If he votes AGAINST Kavanaugh, his lead falls to 7 points (45.3 to 38.0).

    I take this to mean, a yes vote helps the Republican, following a hotly-contested primary, to consolidate his party; whereas, a no vote fractures Donnelly’s party.

    Either way, the Republican is helped. This is why the vote needs to take place before the election. Most of our big pick-up opportunities are in deep red states. We need to nationalize those elections.

  125. DW says:

    According to someone at RRH, the Trafalgar IN senate poll might be experimental:

    They used half live caller and half Email(??) with voter lists to get 1420 responses.

  126. NYCmike says:

    “The Pennsylvania report on the abuse by priests is appalling. As I said years ago, the guilty priests should be beheaded on Good Friday.”

    -Agreed. Disgusting.

    My wife keeps reminding me to watch that “Spotlight” movie.

  127. mnw says:

    It is certainly counterintuitive that McCaskill could be tied, but Donnelly be ahead by 12 points!

    Either the MO polls or the IN poll is WAY off. Yes, MO is not IN– altho they’re pretty similar. And yes, McCaskill is not Donnelly– although the 2 have a lot in common.

  128. Redmen4ever says:

    Robo-callers polls, like Trafalgar, are beginning to supplement their telephone calls with internet-based interviews. This is because the demographics are so skewed from robo-caller polls that post-sample stratification (weighting) is considered inadequate. The live-caller polls are all mixed mode, usually land-line and cell phone, or internet in lieu of cell phone.

    We may have passed the golden age of scientific polling. We are plagued by what’s called non-response bias.

  129. Waingro says:

    Even the “concerned” “Republicans” at RRH are trashing that Trafalgar Indiana poll. Stick it in the garbage dumpster.

  130. Redmen4ever says:

    Here’s another Kavanaugh poll by Trafalgar (it’s also in Real Clear).

    In West Virginia, Senator Manchin has a 10 point lead. Then, if he votes AGAINST Kavanaugh, his lead dwindles to 2 points. If he votes FOR Kavanaugh his lead increases to 18 points. This is what the sponsor of the poll wanted to see. Force Manchin, a vulnerable Democrat is a deep red state, to vote for Kavanuagh. The result in Indiana was not what the sponsor wanted to see. My own view is that both polls show the leads enjoyed by the incumbent is soft.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jsIRwc4tYzz9WjDei-kUcYUED_OewwG6/view

  131. Tina says:

    I am a “concerned” Republican and we cannot just thrash polls.

    Jebot

  132. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The new CNN Poll has the Congressional Generic Ballot at D+11 although Republicans are +2 with Independents. This has to be a D+10 poll in PID.

    Total crat Other lican eral rate tive
    ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== ===== =====
    The Democratic Party’s candidate 52% 96% 41% 6% N/A 60% 21%
    The Republican Party’s candidate 41% 3% 43% 93% N/A 31% 74%
    Other candidate 3% 0% 7% * N/A 4% 1%
    Don’t plan to vote 1% * 1% * N/A 1% 1%
    Don’t know/undecided/refused 4% 1% 8% * N/A 4% 3%
    Sampling Error (+/-) 4.1 7.2 6.5 7.5 6.5 6.8

  133. DW says:

    144 – the SCOTUS decision seemed pretty clear. People are free to do things that others consider whacky. But the others cannot be forced to celebrate it.

  134. Tina says:

    Comrade or Con-riade Brennan’s security clearance has been revoked.

  135. Trump says:

    I have set a dangerous precedent today for future administrations. Like there will be any! LOL

  136. Waingro says:

    n/t

  137. dblaikie says:

    143 Boy can I call it. CNN though should have been my first choice. Now RCP can remove the two bogus generic polls from July, insert the really bogus CNN poll and the average will stay around 4 or five points. But the added bonus is that now the talking are safe to drone on and on about the tremendous blue wave that isn’t going to happen.

    Since I was right about this, I will go out on a limb again and I predict that the GOP will pick up 3 Senate seats, and 3 house seats which in an off year election with Trump is a red tsunami. Just remember you heard it hear first.

  138. Messy says:

    150. ALEC has gotten 28 states to petition to have a constitutional convention, which will get rid of all those darn amendments about people’s rights…
    Not to mention Senatorial elections by the people.