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Gillum/Nelson Lead in FL, Manchin Leads By 6% in WV

Florida Republicans that are giddy at the thought of running against Andrew Gillum might have to temper their enthusiasm based on a new poll from Public Policy Polling that shows Gillum up by 5% on Ron DeSantis. Meanwhile, the poll also has Bill nelson up by a single-percentage point on Rick Scott.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (PPP)
Andrew Gillum (D) 48%
Ron DeSantis (R) 43%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (PPP)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 46%
Rick Scott (R) 45%

This poll was done August 29-30 among 743 likely voters. Meanwhile in West Virginia, Harper Polling shows Democrat Joe Manchin with a 6% lead in his bid for another term.

US SENATE – WEST VIRGINIA (Harper)
Joe Manchin (D-inc) 47%
Patrick Morrisey (R) 41%

This poll was done August 23-26 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:45 am
Filed under: General | Comments (317)

317 Responses to “Gillum/Nelson Lead in FL, Manchin Leads By 6% in WV”

  1. Wes says:

    Not bad news for the GOP, all things considered.

  2. jason says:

    Yeah, those are pretty good numbers.

    Manchin under 50%, especially.

    It’s hard to imagine undecided voters will break for him considering his name recognition and what a known quantity he is. It would seem his support is baked in, and Morrisey is the one with room to grow.

    And the Dem poll in FL can’t come up with better numbers than that?

  3. mnw says:

    48/50 today

    I construe PPP(D) FL to be a rescue poll, given how it compares with 5-6 other Scott/Nelson polls.

  4. Wes says:

    Wes says:
    August 31, 2018 at 9:56 am
    It was decided by less than a point, Mnw. Stewart had a geographic and name ID advantage. I don’t know what else Freitas could have done when the voters wanted a racist clown rather than a noncomtroversial vet as their Senate nominee.

  5. Wes says:

    Noncontroversial*

  6. Wes says:

    Hat tip to RRH:

    Alaska Governor GE:
    Dunleavy (R) 36%
    Walker (I-inc) 26%
    Begich (D) 24%

    Begich is making this a prime pickup target.

  7. DW says:

    Hospicized. There. Now its a verb, and a better metaphor than triaged, as triage involves giving up on those who cannot be saved, helping those about to die and delaying those with minor injuries.

    But when a candidate is hospicized it can only mean one thing.

  8. mnw says:

    Wes

    I don’t know anything about Stewart/Frietas, really– but Stewart’s glaring vulnerabilities don’t seem like they were exploited adequately, since I started hearing about all the Stewart stuff after the primary.

  9. Wes says:

    Stewart’s problems were known when he ran for Governor last year, Mnw. That’s why WaPo endorses him late to try to undercut Ed Gillespie.

  10. DW says:

    Wes keeps harping on the problems of the VA GOP in an effort to convince me to move to NC to help the cause there.

  11. DW says:

    Democrats aren’t as skilled as they used to be:

    “Democrat Jared Polis says more women likely to die if Walker Stapleton is elected governor”

    https://twitter.com/denverpost/status/1035291202835369984

    Why just women? Years ago the candidate would have thrown in children and minorities too.

  12. DW says:

    For benefit of latecomers today who won’t see this on the old thread:

    BOOM!

    FL-07:
    Murphy (D) 47
    Miller (R) 46

    “StPetePolls, commissioned by Florida Politics, conducted a random telephone survey of 435 registered voters Thursday”
    http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_CD7_GEN_August30_O8Y5.pdf

    This seat is likely D according to most forecasters.

  13. mnw says:

    I like to think that if I was Frietas, I would’ve taken a buzzsaw to Stewart & made KKK his middle name. Attacked him 24/7– no more Mr. Goodbar. Ming the Merciless.

    It’s all too late now.

  14. mnw says:

    DW

    Why would anybody poll RVs this late? The R is probably doing even better than this poll shows. Ever hear of an R-inc who runs BETTER with RVs than LVs?

  15. Wes says:

    I don’t know how that would have mattered , Mnw. Stewart never hid his racist, Confederate leanings. Voters knew. They clearly just didn’t care.

  16. Wes says:

    We can use you before Dems become competitive here again, DW.

  17. Mr.Vito says:

    the FL poll is was commissioned by a Dem consultant…

    The crosstabs by media market point to Republican victory.

  18. DW says:

    13 – it didn’t matter to western VA. Those voters, many of them, are still fighting the civil war. The confederate flag is still their flag. Stewart was their candidate. There were not enough GOP voters east of the I-95 corridor who bothered to vote and make up the difference.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    For example, Scott gets his 33% from Miami, is tied in Palm Beach, is winning Tampa and Orlando, and dominates Jacksonville.

    Buuuuuuut… he’s tied in the Republican stronghold of Fort Myers/Naples area.

    Good luck with that.

    (Also, the Nelson is winning the Panama City area by a landslide and Scott is winning the Gainesville market… those are horribly wrong… just flip them)

  20. mnw says:

    I believe everything you both say, but I still smell a not-very-good campaign.

  21. DW says:

    538 must be shocked by that FL_07 poll. They just posted it, showing the 47/46 lead for Murphy, then in the right column it says Murphy +2.

  22. mnw says:

    Vito

    Sounds right.

  23. DW says:

    MI_06 – GSG-D

    Longjohn (D) 44%
    Upton (R) 49%

    This is another Likely R seat where the Dem releases an internal trying to show its close to get cash from anyone willing to give it.

  24. Mr.Vito says:

    Virginia was D+9 in the last gallup poll of party ID… I don’t know why we are still discussing it.

  25. mnw says:

    Tina

    Drudge says Mueller to drop “bombshell” today.

    But, it’s a Friday before a long weekend. .. that’s when you usually release BAD news.

    Unemployment is lowest since 1969, btw.

  26. DW says:

    updated dashboard:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ——————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | RRH | Kos | 538 |Avg Scr. — Latest Poll R/D
    ——————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.7 —
    OK_05 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5 —
    PA_14* D | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.5 —
    CA_22 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.2 — 48/43 (Tulchin)
    NY_23 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    OH_10 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    IA_04 | 153 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5 —
    AK_01 | 154 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 — 40/36 (Lake Res.)
    NC_08 R | 155 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5 —
    IN_09 R | 156 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 —
    OH_07 R | 157 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 —
    AZ_08 R | 158 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5 —
    MO_02 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | 5 — 51/40 (Rem.)
    CO_03 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.7 —
    NY_27 | 161 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    TX_31 R | 162 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 — 46/40 (PPP)
    FL_15* R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    IN_02 R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    FL_06* R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    MI_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    SC_01 R | 167 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    OH_14 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    CA_04 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    WI_06 R | 170 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    FL_25 R | 171 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 46/39 (St. Pete)
    TX_21* R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 33/27 (Chg Res.)
    GA_07 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.2 — 44/46 (Tulchin)
    PA_16 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 50/44 (D-Int)
    NC_02 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    MI_07 R | 176 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4 — 41/37 (DCCC-D)
    NY_24 R | 177 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 54/39 (Siena)
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7 — 42/37 (Lake R.)
    FL_18 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    MI_06 R | 180 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 — 49/44 (GSG-D)
    CA_21 R | 181 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    FL_16 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 — 49/37 (PPP) | 48/44 (D-Int)
    PA_10 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    IL_14 R | 184 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 — 45/41 (PPP)
    NY_01 R | 185 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    GA_06* R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    CA_50 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.2 — 51/42 (Tulchin) | 47/39 (SUSA)
    AR_02 R | 188 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | 3 — 47/42 (PPP)
    NY_11 R | 189 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3 —
    IL_13 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.7 — 45/42 (PPP)
    VA_05 R | 191 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.7 —
    MT_01 R | 192 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | 2.5 — 43/49 (Gravis)
    NM_02* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.2 — 49/35 (Carroll)
    WA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.2 — 44/38 (elway)
    NC_13 R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2 — 40/35 (Civitas)
    VA_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 — 48/42 (PPP)
    UT_04 R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 — 45/39 (Salt Lake)
    WI_01* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 —
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 1.5 — 41/43 (Monm.)
    OH_12 R | 200 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3 — 48/44 (PPP)
    OH_01 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Toss | 1.2 — 43/42 (PPP)
    TX_32 R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | 1.2 — 47/45 (GBA)
    NE_02 R | 203 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 1.2 —
    NJ_03 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1 — 41/40 (Monm.)
    PA_01 R | 205 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.1 — 49/42
    IL_06 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1 — 44/37 (Victory Res.)
    KS_03 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 0.8 — 43/46 (GSG-D)
    VA_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 —
    IL_12 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 — 44/39 (PPP)
    ME_02 R | 210 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.7 — 40/39 (D-Int)
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.6 — 45/39 (Target Ins)
    KS_02* R | 212 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.6 — 34/39 (Mellman-D)
    NJ_07 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.6 — 45/47 (GQR-D)
    FL_26 R | 214 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.6 — 48/41 (DCCC-D)
    MN_03 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 0.6 — 43/46 (PPP)
    CA_45 R | 216 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.5 — 45/44 (D-Int)
    KY_06 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.5 —
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 41/45 (D-Int.)
    TX_07 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 47/45 (D-Int.)
    NY_19 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena)
    NC_09* R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 43/44 (D-Int)
    TX_23 R | 214 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | 0.1 — 44/43 (PPP)
    MN_08* D | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0 — 51/45 (GBA)
    IA_01 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln D | 0 — 41/43 (D Int.)
    MN_01* D | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    CA_39* R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 45/43 (DCCC-D)
    CA_10 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.1 — 48/48 (GHY-D)
    CA_25 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.1 — 47/47 (IMGE)
    CA_48 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 45/47 (Monm.)
    CO_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — (45/45 IMGE)
    NY_22 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 40/47 (Zogby) | 44/46 (Siena)
    MN_02 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 43/42 (PPP)
    MI_11* R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.7 — 42/45 (PPP)
    PA_07* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk D | -1.3 —
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | -1.6 — 38/40 (Monmouth)
    VA_10 R | 199 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8 — 39/49 (Monm.)
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | -1.8 — 46/43 (R-Int)
    NH_01* D | 197 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8 —
    AZ_02* R | 196 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | -1.8 —
    NV_03* D | 195 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.8 —
    PA_17 R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | -2 — 39/51 (Monm.)
    NV_04* D | 193 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.7 — 41/41 (R-Int)
    FL_27* R | 192 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -3 —
    AZ_01 D | 191 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -3.2 —
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -3.5 — 46/47 (St. Pete)
    MN_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5 —
    PA_08 D | 188 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5 —
    NJ_05 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -4 — 39/36 (R-Int)
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -4 —
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2 — 39/44 (PPP)
    CA_07 D | 184 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.5 — 41/50 (POS)
    CT_05* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | -4.5 —
    PA_05* R | 182 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    AZ_09* D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    NH_02 D | 180 | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    CA_24 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.2 — 46/47 (Olive Tree St.)
    NY_18 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.2 —
    WI_03 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5 —
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5 —
    NY_25 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 — 31/55 (Siena)
    FL_13 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    OR_05 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    NY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    KY_03 D | 171 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    MD_06 D | 170 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —

    *indicates open seat

  27. mnw says:

    I vote for Upton, because I like his little niece Mrs. Verlander.

  28. jason says:

    I see mnw is running interference for the deadenders that voted for Stewart.

    They “just didn’t know enough about him”.

    LOL

  29. jason says:

    Actually, Drudge is saying that Chuck Todd is saying there will be a bombshell.

  30. DW says:

    25 – I had the same thought…not only a Friday, its news dropped going into the Labor Day three-day weekend. Its news you know you have to release and don’t want to, so you pick the time when the fewest will hear it or remember it

  31. jason says:

    I like to think that if I was Frietas, I would’ve taken a buzzsaw to Stewart & made KKK his middle name. Attacked him 24/7– ”

    It shouldn’t have been necessary.

    As wes pointed out, Stewart’s rhetoric is nothing new, his views have been front and center in VA for years.

  32. mnw says:

    jason 28

    I can’t see how you get that. It certainly never occurred to me. I thought what I posted was the opposite.

  33. DW says:

    31 – and as I pointed out, most VA voters west of I-95 embraced Stewart, eyes wide open.

  34. jason says:

    I can’t see how you get that. It certainly never occurred to me. I thought what I posted was the opposite.””

    Here is what you said

    but Stewart’s glaring vulnerabilities don’t seem like they were exploited adequately, since I started hearing about all the Stewart stuff after the primary.”

    The implication seems to be the deadenders voted for an unknown quantity, but the fact is Stewart is well known and his positions are also well known.

  35. jason says:

    If this is the bombshell, zzzzzzzzzz

    “A former associate of Paul Manafort, Sam Patten, was charged Friday with failing to register in the U.S. as a foreign agent for his work lobbying on behalf of a Ukrainian political party.

    U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office referred the case to the U.S. Attorney in the District of Columbia, according William Miller, a spokesman for U.S. Attorney Jessie Liu.

    From 2014 until now, Patten worked with a Russian national on lobbying and political consulting services, including on behalf of a Ukrainian oligarch and a Ukrainian political party, according to a document filed by the U.S. in federal court in Washington.”

    I am surprised they didn’t say “a former associate of Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign manager”

  36. DW says:

    A lot of undecided, but here is a new poll from Repass and Partners

    Manchin 46%
    Morrisey 38%

  37. jason says:

    “A former associate of Paul Manafort, Sam Patten, was charged Friday with failing to register in the U.S. as a foreign agent for his work lobbying on behalf of a Ukrainian political party.”

    So we have gone from collusion with Russia to failing to register as a lobbyist for an Ukranian political party.

  38. DW says:

    35 – yeah, not exactly the sort of stuff that makes for easy water-cooler chatter.

    “Did you hear the latest? Some guy didn’t properly register in regards to some foreign country and is being charged with something and he worked with and consulted for a Russian and some sort of connection to Ukraine, and…and…uhm…well…so who is your pick to go all the way this year and win the NCAA football championship?”

  39. Wes says:

    Just when Beto thought he had a chance:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1035535092406472704

    On the other hand, Bitterlaw likes candidates for office with DUIs in their past, so he may contribute to him.

  40. DW says:

    39 – some at RRH made the immediate waving off comment comparing this to Bush43. The similarity is that it happened many years ago. But the dissimilarity was brought up by MOSHEM of all people:

    Disagree. This is worse than a regular DUI – trying to flee the scene, and then getting off easy (probably having something to do with his father’s connections) looks pretty damn bad.

    Jeff B. at DDHQ said it well on twitter:
    There’s a diff btw a vanilla “DWI” & “drunkenly crashing into a truck and flying across the median, nearly killing oncoming drivers & then attempting to flee the scene only to be restrained by passers-by & blowing a .136.”

  41. Wes says:

    This from one of the comments on the Twitter feed:

    Did he really? I read your article and an “anonymous source” says he put his car in the way of Beto’s truck to stop him from fleeing. Meaning he didn’t flee. Ask Beto what his intent was cause Beto is the only one who knows. Speculation at it’s best.

    Because when I see a DUI occurring I always randomly pull my car in front of the vehicle when I don’t expect the suspect to flee…

  42. Redmen4ever says:

    OMG!

    I just downloaded a poll from Survey M*nk*y.

  43. Wes says:

    Absolutely disgusting attempt at distortion and moral equivalence by an O’Rourke sycophant on Twitter:

    Lobsterbucket
    Lobsterbucket
    @Lobsterboyy
    ·
    1h
    Replying to
    @rkylesmith
    A former first lady ran a stop sign and killed someone, didnt even get charged. Welp!

  44. dblaikie says:

    Let’s be clear! Everyone knows that the PPP stands for Positively Putrid Polling. Gilliam in the poll leads Desantis by 34 points with independents. Putridly bogus poll.

  45. dblaikie says:

    But I am sure Robbie will believe it.

  46. DW says:

    West Virginia Generic Congressional Ballot:

    GOP 47%
    Dem 32%

    Only District 3 is considered in play, even though in 2016 it was district 2 that was the closest.

    Interestingly, the 2016 average of the three districts when it comes to the Democrat share of the vote was 32%. So this poll could be a little soft on the GOP side of things.

  47. NYCmike says:

    I am trying to figure out which individual I can make a comment about, which will then be, somehow, made into an attack on John McCain’s military service by our resident A-Holes.

  48. NYCmike says:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/nuns-on-the-bus-donald-trump-protest-mar-a-lago-tax-cuts-midterm-elections-2018-a8500276.html

    -Between the Pope, the priest at the mass I went to (and walked out of) on Sunday, and now this……..the Catholic Church is really ridiculous. The priests, nuns, etc should start with asking forgiveness for their own sins, as their parishioners do.

  49. jason says:

    I am trying to figure out which individual I can make a comment about, which will then be, somehow, made into an attack on John McCain’s military service by our resident A-Holes.”

    Has NYC answered the question yet on why he was so offended by Bitterlaw bringing up the facts of McCains’ military service?

  50. jason says:

    NYCmike says:
    August 30, 2018 at 10:57 pm

    Here is the question: who questioned anything about McCain’s military record which would make you volunteer that information which is already common knowledge?”

    NYC doen’t attack McCain’s military service. He just gets upset and attacks those that bring it up.

    And the reason he gets upset at the mention of McCain’s great service to his country and attacks people who bring it up is because he greatly admires such service.

    And because such service is “common knowledge”, nobody should talk about it during the week of McCain’s death.

    I hope its clear now.

  51. jason says:

    Was Messy really quoting Vanity Fair as her source that Steele’s dossier was “corroborated”?

    I love this place.

    Listen Messy, maybe you would eat a whole turd sandwich before you decided it didn’t taste that good.

    Steele’s fake dossier has been thoroughly debunked the instant it was discovered it was cheap political propaganda bought and paid for by the DNC.

    It’s all garbage.

  52. NYCmike says:

    “Has NYC answered the question yet on why he was so offended by Bitterlaw bringing up the facts of McCains’ military service?”

    -I wasn’t.

    You have any other soft-balls to spit out of your mouth and mumble in a complete English sentence?

  53. NYCmike says:

    I brought up Biden, and his “heartfelt” eulogy, as reported by ALL of the msm outlets. That is what was sickening.

    Bitterlaw then, for reasons only he could make up, decided to speak about McCain’s military service, which is common knowledge.

    Do the majority of people who know John McCain NOT KNOW about his military service?

    What rock did you find them under?

    And why did you, an A-Hole, allow them to share that rock with you?

  54. DW says:

    An excerpt from Biden’s eulogy:

    “I worked with my good friend John McCain for many, many decades in the United States Senate. In fact, I think we should give him a round of applause for his years of service, John, stand up so everyone can see you! Oh my what I am saying, EVERYONE STAND UP FOR JOHN!!!”

  55. Tina says:

    Breaking

    No Fisa Warrant hearing on Carter Page.

  56. Tina says:

    Schweikart suggests that John Kyle will be the az replacement,

    Fwiw.

  57. NYCmike says:

    I would prefer Kyle over Cindy………..oops, sorry about another attack on McCain’s military service……

  58. Tina says:

    In other news,

    Bj stared at a woman and had his mouth wide open during the Aretha Franklin funeral.

    Hillary need help upstairs.

  59. lisab says:

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/aretha-franklin-funeral-internet-frenzy-at-bill-clinton-s-gaze-during-ariana-grande-s-performance-at-a3925066.html
    —————————————-

    yes, bill was pretty happy at the funeral

    and

    ariana grande was wearing a pretty short dress for a funeral

  60. Paul says:

    When I’m in my 70s, I’ll look wherever I dang want to look and won’t care. Heck, I’m 48 and I already don’t care.

  61. Messy says:

    35. Ah another witch bagged.

    52. Their political reporting is excellent. The Moscow anti-putin blog is rather good too. I”m pretty sure that Jason and Tina would say 2+2=5 if a the Daily Caller or InfoWars proclaimed it in a headline.

    As to McCain, His military career was heroic, much of his political career was honorable, but his 2008 fall presidential campaign was atrocious. That was about as much his fault than those people who were disinvited from his funeral.

  62. mnw says:

    Ahh! T he hour of the trolls.

    Hi, three iii’s. And then we have Comrade Brennan’s admirer. You guys gonna get married & make little trolls? Maybe take some remedial English classes together?

  63. mnw says:

    Rdel brings the same calm, good sense to his RRH posts that he used to display here. Of all the posters we’ve driven away over the years, he was the greatest loss, imo. He didn’t like all the rancor & feuding here. I blame all of you, excepting only myself.

    According to John Ralston, RNC is pulling the FR plug on Tarkanian, even though he’s only down by 2-points in a swingy, open NV district. Instead, per Ralston, RNC prefers to go all in on the Hardy/Horsford race next door… where the R trails by 9. THIS is the reason I quit donating to all GOP party committees years ago, & I now only donate directly to candidates themselves.

  64. Wes says:

    Mnw, Tarik has a nearly 20-year unbroken string of losses and constantly be clowns himself. Hardy actually won in 2014 and lost in 2016 because Trump severely hurt NV Republicans on all levels .

    There are more factors than polls that go into what races the NRCC contests. Hardy is a known quantity who lost in a perfect storm situation. Tark is a perennial loser. Looked at from that perspective, the decision makes sense as Hardy is more likely than Tark to be a strong closer.

  65. Wes says:

    Rdel was a good poster but often saw what he wanted to see rather than reality. His infamous Delbov Curve was one of the worst analyses of a race I’ve ever seen.

    In 2012, just by fiat, he declared Republicans would beat Stabenow because some nebulous rich man would enter the race and win. That of course never materialized, and Pete Hoekstra—the eventual nominee—disqualified himself with Ana’s perceived as racist against Asians, never recovering and losing by 20.

    Rdel has a profound knowledge of politics but like MD will often twist reality to suit his desire for a certain outcome.

    I do wish he still posted here.

  66. Wes says:

    An ad, not Ana’s.

  67. mnw says:

    Wes

    I just disagree about Tark.

    If you read Rdel’s posts at RRH, he’s like the hall monitor there. Why do you not post there, out of curiosity, btw?

  68. Wes says:

    What’s there to disagree about? His electoral history and personality are well known.

    I refuse to post there because I wouldn’t last an hour after I went off on one of those pseudo-Republican snowflakes for their continual Dem cheerleading.

  69. mnw says:

    Rdel’s posts about his home state of TN are/were particularly thoughtful. I don’t recall his Stabenow posts, altho I don’t doubt you, & I never paid any attention to the Delbov curve, whatever it was.

  70. mnw says:

    Well, you have a point about being banned. You’d have to control that. I got banned for a stupid reason about 4 years ago, so now I’m very, very careful… and I STILL got warned recently– for describing McCaskill as looking like a used dumbstruck.

    As for Danny Tarkanian, I just like the guy. Always have.

  71. Wes says:

    The Delbov Curve said McCain would beat Obama because Obama would run up the score only in left-leaning states, leaving McCain with enough votes despite losing the popular vote in a landslide to hit 270. It ignored all the states Obama was on offense in and had it come to pass, would have probably resulted in mass riots with Dems furious over the results.

    Needless to say, it was never a viable possibility, but Rdel held to it till actual returns proved its fallaciousness.

  72. Wes says:

    I like certain doomed pols too, Mnw. Barbara Comstock is one of my favorite members of Congress for example. Even so, I know she’s going to lose because of the poor state of the VAGOP. I don’t like it, but I try to be evenhanded even when I don’t like the anticipated results.

    We can disagree cordially on Tark, but I’m willing to bet an NRCC operative would give you the exact reasons I gave for supporting Hardy and ignoring Tark.

  73. mnw says:

    I don’t recall his methodology, but anybody looking at that race could see from 5 miles up that McCain was going to get wiped out because of the dangerously bad economy. He must’ve been doing a trees/forest thing.

  74. Mr.Vito says:

    He should have saved the Delbov curve for 2016.

  75. Bitterlaw says:

    The reasoning behind the Delbov Curve was simple. The Republican will win because….the Republican will win.

  76. J. Cutler says:

    Where’s Corey buddy?

  77. ReadyFirst says:

    I think someone used the Delbov curve on this headline FL poll.

  78. ReadyFirst says:

    All I remember Delbov for is being egregious. Kind of like the Polaris poll weighting.

  79. mnw says:

    In an RRH discussion concerning Trump’s apparent improvement among AA voters, the biggest adz over there (and there’s a LOT of competition!), wished the improvement thing away by explaining that it was all probably due to white voters misidentifying as blacks!… “in order to mess with the pollsters.”

    The same poster, who uses an ice cream cone icon, has frequently explained that Keith Ellison isn’t an antisemite– he just suffers from guilt by association… & poor choice of associates.

  80. NYCmike says:

    https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/ted-cruz-government-shutdown-obamacare/

    -Of course Ted Cruz was correct…….jason and Bitterlaw to say he is just a showboat in 3……2……1…….

    There is a line about McCaskill in there: “All of which has gleeful Democrats turning the tables — and fueling 2018 races on angst that Republicans will indeed rip away beneficiaries’ health care “sugar.” Candidates like endangered Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill claim that health care is the No. 1 among her constituents — with some polls backing the assertion.”

    Republicans needed to RIP THE HEART OF THIS BILL OUT OF ITS BODY (of law). It should have happened on Jan 21, 2017.

    BUT, it didn’t, because congressional Republicans were too timid, and many of them probably approve of it anyway.

    Another lost opportunity.

    Oh well, we shall fight on, and hope that the battlefield is tilted somehow in our favor.

  81. Florida Guy says:

    “BOOM!

    FL-07:
    Murphy (D) 47
    Miller (R) 46

    This seat is likely D according to most forecasters.”

    Murphy was a lucky win. John Mica (R) had stayed too long and got lazy. That is an R-leaning district that has some good Orlando suburbs for the Dems, but some hardcore R precincts in Seminole and Volusia counties.

  82. mnw says:

    NYC 83

    That’s a really informative article! I hadn’t seen that. Thanks.

    For me, IBD is close to indispensable.

  83. Wes says:

    Cruz was right in that Obamacare would be here to stay. He was also a solipsistic showboater. Both can be true as Bitter says.

    Cruz accomplished nothing with his shutdown but further undermining Ken Cuccinelli’s increasingly flailing attempt to succeed Bob McDonnell. It was never going to end ObamaCare and was basically an attempt to lay the groundwork for his 2016 presidential bid given the cynical facade of a genuine attempt to end ObamaCare.

    Upon gaining complete control of the federal government in January 2017, Republicans should have taken a piecemeal approach to healthcare that would have eviscerated the more egregious aspects of the law while keeping popular parts and implementing more market-friendly aspects. The way they handled it ensured its demise once McCain decided to spite Trump.

    Insofar as it goes, IBD is correct. It also paints broad brushes ignoring many critical details and paints Cruz as some would-be hero when he was more accurately a narcissistic egomaniac fallaciously pretending to try to stop ObamaCare in a doomed venture that accomplished nothing and never had a chance of success.

  84. Tina says:

    Seems like bj and her thighness are having issues with:

    Stairs and stares.

  85. Wes says:

    Ariana Grande is pretty but would be stunning if she had ever heard of food .

  86. Mr.Vito says:

    Meghan McCain: America was always great

    Gov Cuomo: America was never that great

    I guess Trump has the compromise position….

  87. Tina says:

    Nick Short retweeted
    Donald J. Trump Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    7m
    There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new NAFTA deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the U.S. after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate NAFTA entirely & we will be far better off…
    View details ·

    Please terminate it. Phuq eyebrow.

  88. Messy says:

    Yeah, have the rates for the St.Lawrence seaway quintuple. That’ll show ’em!!!!….erm….wait…Most of the St.Lawrence seaway is in Canada!!!!!

  89. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE

    “Researchers feed seaweed to dairy cows to ‘reduce emissions’…”
    ************************************************
    Now the cat is out of the bag and you know where Cash Cow has been.
    ________________________________________
    First, the seaweed tasted terrible.

    Secondly, I still cow-farted a lot, but it did smell like the ocean.

  90. mnw says:

    The more I think about that new FL-07 poll (post 86 above), which is good for GOP, the more I’m inclined to just disregard it.

    475 RVs, selected randomly for phone interviews? No LV screen. No attempt at D/R/I modeling.

    I don’t know what it means. The only reason to conduct a poll in that manner is because it would be incredibly cheap to do it.

    RE: ACA as “most important issue of 2018,” which the DEM pollsters claim it is (IBD article post 83 link): I just don’t buy it. I have no evidence to present. I just don’t think it passes the smell test.

    I’m relieved to learn that Trump will be going to TX for a rally with Cruz.

    I wonder when Ducey will make the appointment? They finally plant McCain today, I think. If he appoints Kyl, that’s a placeholder– probably for Ducey’s own benefit. Would still be a big upgrade from Missus McC., tho.

  91. Tina says:

    Likely Tuesday for the announcement, mnw.

    Schweikart indicates that it is Kyl. Suggests that it was telling when he accompanied Kavanaugh.

    Schweikart says that Ducey nixed Mrs. McCain or the daughter.

    Fwiw.

  92. Messy says:

    He will do it on Tuesday. IT’s the first business day of the fall.

    BTW, here’s how you NOT do it: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6120721/Don-Jr-blasts-liberals-response-Mollie-Tibbetts-murder.html

  93. Tina says:

    Ana Navarro
    @ananavarro
    Follow
    Damn! We’re only two eulogies into the #McCainfuneral, and I keep wondering how Jarvanka haven’t yet slinked out of their seats and crawled on their hands and knees out of that church.
    8:13 AM – 1 Sep 2018

    The whale has opined on WellStone 2.0.

  94. Diamond Jim says:

    😛

  95. Diamond Jim says:

    C

  96. mnw says:

    pimp that troll blog

  97. NYCmike says:

    “Cruz was right in that Obamacare would be here to stay. He was also a solipsistic showboater. Both can be true as Bitter says.”

    -Wes,

    In this case, I would love to hear Bitter say that. I have no issue with Cruz being a showboat…..HELLO, he is a politician.

    How many of these arseholes aren’t showboats?!?!

    Let’s see if Bitter, and his butt-buddy jason, can admit that Cruz was correct.

  98. NYCmike says:

    “That’s a really informative article! I hadn’t seen that. Thanks.”

    -Have to give credit to Instapundit on that one, mnw. That is where I found it.

    Cheers.

    In other news:

    Is it possible the Cardinals end up with the best record in the National League?

  99. Wes says:

    Mikey, Mike Enzi is a politician too and arguably the most conservative member of the Senate. I don’t recall Enzi’s self-beclowning with a doomed government shutdown.

  100. NYCmike says:

    LOL. Enzi it is!

    Is 1 the answer to my “very serious question”?

    Could you also give some examples from 1948, 1928, and 1848?

    We await your brilliance!

  101. NYCmike says:

    Pastor apologized for hugging Ariana Grande too closely…….it sure does look like he went a little too far!

  102. Wes says:

    Are you now suffering from chronic neurosuphilis, Miey? I can account for your lunatic response no other way.

  103. Wes says:

    Neurosyphilis*

  104. mnw says:

    RE: IN SEN (sort of)

    Evansville Courier & Press: “Trump Rally Brings Largest Crowd Ever to Ford Center”

    11200 inside; + 2000 outside (who couldn’t get tickets).

    This was for Donnelly’s (D-inc) opponent Braun (R). Be nice to see some polling, but it has been explained that polling in IN is difficult due to state laws.

    The msm focused predictably on the “thousands” of protesters expected to attend. There were in fact a couple of hundred– easy enough to actually count a number like that. And what countercultural types they were! Many reminded me of Trigglypuff & Hatthief, if you remember those young lovelies from news cycles past..

  105. Mr.Vito says:

    I see McCain’s pallbearers very nearly dropped him.

    I think it might be collusion.

  106. mnw says:

    Vito

    I’m hopeful that the Wellstone-like obsequies, particularly Meghan’s vulgar little political diatribe, will finish off any chance Cindy may have had to be appointed.

    I wouldn’t like to be Ducey if he appointed the widow, & then she torpedoed Kavanaugh. Given the tenor of the speeches, how could Ducey rule that possibility out?

  107. ReadyFirst says:

    I remember watching the Wellstone funeral and getting so ticked off I sent a donation to Norm Coleman. The obvious difference between Wellstone/McCain is McCain’s funeral is a bipartisan event. I don’t think that will make too much difference to average Americans as I think most regular people find mixing politics and funerals distasteful. In the end, I think the media will be the main loser here.

  108. Tina says:

    Obama and Mute 43 into the politicization at WellStone 2.0

    Bushbama.

    Did Mute hug the Wookie too?

  109. Tina says:

    And in some cases worse than wellStone.

    Taxpayers subsidized this one.

    Disgusting.

  110. mnw says:

    RF & Tina

    I also thought there were obvious similarities, but… 90% of voters would probably say, “Wellstone WHO?”

  111. Tina says:

    Mnw, I use the term to mean do not politicize funerals.

    But you are right, outside of Mn, it is wellStone who?

  112. Bitterlaw says:

    Cruz is an unpopular and unlivable douche. He usually votes the right way but his filibuster was stupid. Both can be true.

  113. jason says:

    NYCmike says:
    August 30, 2018 at 10:57 pm

    Here is the question: who questioned anything about McCain’s military record which would make you volunteer that information which is already common knowledge?”

    So you are bothered by “common knowledge” huh?

    I guess its just habit. It’s common knowledge you are a moron, but I still bring your name up.

  114. jason says:

    Cruz is a grandstanding idiot.

    I am glad I am no longer in Texas where I would have to vote for him over the Marxist.

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    I want Cruz to win. I don’t like him. Both can be true.

  116. ReadyFirst says:

    mnw/Tina, yep Wellstone who? Except by the people who write the playbook. Politics aside, Cruz’s voice annoys me, not the Texas accent, just the tempo/preachiness of it. More of a visceral thing, but hey, he usually votes right.

  117. ReadyFirst says:

    Have a great Saturday everyone! Time for some dancing with my Fiancee. Great local band, they do a lot of Queen and 80s hits. Singer really sounds just like Freddie Mercury, which is really tough.

  118. lisab says:

    so how long do you think it will take corey to raise the $1000 he pledged to pay over spreading the rumors about rubio not being eligible to run for president?

    i hear mcdonald’s pays $15/hr in chicago

  119. Tina says:

    IN and out pays $18 near Sf.

  120. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Last month, The Investors Business daily/ TIPP Poll has the Congressional Generic Ballot at 45/45. Its poll released yesterday has it at D50- R39, an eleven point swing. What is believable anymore when it comes to polling?

    https://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-approval-midterm-elections-ibd-tipp-poll/

  121. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics has moved two(2) additional Senate races to Toss Up.To wit:(1) Democrat Jon Tester in Montana and Rep. Ted Cruz in Texas.

  122. Phil says:

    I would say that if Beto can run as a way out liberal and still win a statewide race in Texas it’s game over nationally for the Republican Party. No use even following politics any longer.

  123. Bitterlaw says:

    Phil- How is your wife doing? How are you doing?

  124. Big Joe says:

    Rdel and Polaris were simply visionaries well ahead of their time. Shame neither was here in 2016 to gloat.

    Big Joe

  125. Phil says:

    We’re doing ok, Bitter. Thanks.

  126. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Sounds about right!

    A new Economist/YouGov poll finds that just 52% of Republicans have a favorable view of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), while 75% of Democrats have a favorable view of McCain.

  127. mnw says:

    To paraphrase William F. Buckley, I’d rather be governed by the first 25 people entering a Cineplex than by the posters at RRH.

    What an absolute ZOO they’ve assembled over there!

  128. mnw says:

    Sheep 129

    Something’s going on beneath the radar in MT SEN.

  129. Wes says:

    RRH is basically a host Kossites, some being open about their liberalism with others masquerading as Republicans, constantly downplaying GOP prospects across the board while talking up almost every Dem in every race.

    Rdelbov, Cer, and Honeybee (the last a woman, I guess) along with your own alter ego on the site are the exceptions, Mnw.

    I frequently see tortured logic over there declaring a never-yet-materialized national Dem wave. For instance it was their contention, echoed here repeatedly by MD, that 2014 was going to be a great for the Dems, with the GOP dropping House and gubernatorial seats and failing to recapture the Senate. This ignored literally everything going on in that cycle.

    Being spectacularly wrong about that particular cycle hasn’t stopped the posters over there from chasing the will-o’-the-wisp of inevitable landslides for the Dems though.

  130. Wes says:

    I wonder if Pearl Jam didn’t hurt Tester with their concert poster depicting a White House fire and Trump’s charred corpse. Right about that time seems to have been when Rosendale started gathering steam.

  131. Tina says:

    ‘Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’
    @NolteNC
    15h
    Groping, ogling, politicizing, cheap political shots… Compared to the McCain family, Bush, Obama, Clintons, Sharpton & Biden, whodathunk Louis Farrakhan would look the most dignified…
    View details ·

    Ouch.

  132. Wes says:

    I just read your write up, Corey. You make one egregious error in it:

    Thad Cochran was not Senate President Pro Tem at his resignation. As the senior Republican Senator, Orrin Hatch has held that position since 2015.

    Good synopsis/analysis aside from that though .

  133. mnw says:

    Wes 137

    RE: RRH

    I agree with your Kossite premise.

    However, you missed a number of frequent RRH posters who are genuine conservative Republicans– starting with the most reliable & predictable:

    1) RAYINMA (sounds like a woman, but I THINK it means “Ray in Massachusetts”)

    2) PRSTEVE11

    3) PSTCHRISP

    4) REPUBLICAN MICHIGANDER

    5) CALREP

    6) TENNESSEEMIKE

    7) HS

    I only included frequent posters, & only frequent posters whose political views are clearly conservative & Republican.

    So, there are a few more than the 3 you (correctly) identified.

  134. Tgca says:

    Meghan McCain

    Your bitter angry tone in the video shows you’re more interested in trying to settle a score between two guys that could not stand one another rather than grieve and honor your father. I hope the elite audience applause made your night. It certainly showed the nation a view of you that probably is best described as disgust and achieved the opposite of your intent.

    Your father unfortunately died from brain cancer and not by the hand of another. Your father was a POW and served his country admirably in the military. Your father had a long political career serving the people of AZ. Your father ran for POTUS. Your father’s long life was filled with so much to reflect upon …and you use his funeral for this?

    You just showed yourself to be as petty and thin-skinned as Trump.

  135. mnw says:

    Tg

    She sux, & she’s really porked up, too.

    Move going OK? Health improving, hopefully?

  136. Tgca says:

    …I am not a fan of filling a politician’s seat with a family member not active in politics. I could care less if it’s a Dem or Rep. The seat belongs to the people and not to the politician. The Gov should fill the seat with a qualified political person and let the people decide thereafter. If Cindy McCain truly has political aspirations, then give it to her, if not, give it to someone better politically suited to represent the people.

  137. Paul says:

    It appears that the damning story of Beto’s drunk driving incident has been piled together by Republicans with frivolous stories of his band and fake story of his name change.

  138. Tina says:

    I do not think Ducey would appoint the Opiate or the Meg.

  139. Tina says:

    Safe pick would be Kyl.

    Another possible pick Jan Brewer.

    Would like Ducey to run for the seat.

    Speaking of Az primary numbers, R turn out was quite high.

    But Muh blue wave

  140. Tgca says:

    Mnw

    Watch her tone and facial expressions. It is of bitterness and anger with intent of attacking someone who should not matter in a eulogy. Mac’s life should not be defined and celebrated by a hateful relationship he had with a political enemy. She diminished her father’s memory and insulted half the nation that found a reason to vote for Trump regarding their concerns with the direction of the US. I wonder if Mac would approve of her behavior.

    Maybe she can go on The View next week and get hugs and cheers from those on the left that had disdain for her father in 2008. Damn useful idiot.

  141. Wes says:

    Typically in states where the Governor has the ability to appoint a replacement for a deceased or resigned Senator, the Governor will select the strongest member of his/her political party capable of holding the seat (except under certain circumstances in states such as NC, WY, and AK where the Governor must appoint a Senator of the same party as the former Senator and so may not have any choice at times but to fill the vacancy with a member of a different political party from him-/herself).

    Often that leads to appointments of dead Senators’ spouses, though curiously female Senators appointed to replace their husbands have never run to retain their seats.

    This is why Cindy McCain’s seeing her name floated though Ducey, unwilling to fracture the party by appointing someone as liberal as McCain, will likely ultimately look elsewhere for his pick. Supposedly Jon Kyl is now the front runner.

  142. Wes says:

    Random, pointless comment of the day adding absolutely no insight into the subject it purports to discuss:

    Paul says:
    September 2, 2018 at 12:43 pm
    It appears that the damning story of Beto’s drunk driving incident has been piled together by Republicans with frivolous stories of his band and fake story of his name change.

  143. Tgca says:

    Mnw

    My move is complete. I arrived from FL on Sat. Now weeks of unpacking at my leisure.

    My younger dog told me what she thought of the new place and pooped on the master bedroom carpet while exploring the house. She has always been in homes with hard flooring so for some reason she thinks carpet is to be used as in-door plumbing for dogs. She did this once when I lived in AZ too where the spare room was carpeted. To her, carpet is like grass.

    She will have to get used to living in the hardfloor downstairs part of the house.

  144. Wes says:

    I doubt Ducey will run for Senate, Tina, unless Republicans simply can’t find a better candidate in 2020 or 2022.

  145. Tina says:

    You never know, Wes.

    He is a smart cookie. Me has a big appt to make and Kyl appears to be the place holder.

    After WellStone 2.0, he cannot appoint anybody with the last name of McCain,

  146. Tgca says:

    I find it hard to believe there are no qualified up and coming Reps in AZ to fill the open seat. It should not represent Mac’s family’s intent. The seat does not belong to them so it’s irrelevant what they wish.

  147. Tina says:

    liani
    @RudyGiuliani
    15h
    Bruce Ohr worked on Steele dossier while at DOJ. His wife worked for FusionGPS, company peddling lies about President Trump, and was paid by them. A CRIME. 18 USC 208. If they worked for Trump campaign they would now be arrested. Let’s see if media covers it.
    View

    Look for some firings this week and a perp walk for Ohr and Ugly Ohr.

  148. Mr.Vito says:

    How about John Shadegg?

  149. Wes says:

    Notice how this RRH asswipe is concerned about the death penalty’s being cruel and unusual” for perpetrators while obviously not caring if they’re cruel and unusual to their victims. He also says society should be better than killing murderers. Sorry, guy who likes murderers, but GFY:

    MIKE1965
    September 2, 2018 at 12:39 pm | In reply to calrep
    I can’t prove it, that’s why I said IMHO.
    I know it’s easy to want vengeance against the worst of the worst but to me the death penalty crosses the line to cruel and unusual punishment. I would like to think we as a a society are better than that.
    The people have spoken, the bastards.

  150. Wes says:

    None of the Congressmen other than McSally (running for the Class 1 seat) seems genuinely interested in the Senate, and after them there don’t seem to be any heavyweights in the AZGOP. A placeholder may be the way to go till a powerful front runner can emerge.

  151. mnw says:

    Tg

    That was a protest dump. To let you know she didn’t like being uprooted. My dog used to take “revenge dumps” on very rare occasions– & I could always figure out her thought process when she did that. Once was because I got home from a trip, & I had to turn around right away & leave again, & she decided that 2 trips in a row was unfair.

    RE: Ducey:

    He’s got an “R” after his name, right? He’s up for re-election, & he has more than a nominal DEM opponent. His first thought has to be, “I want someone AZ Republicans will all approve of.” That would NOT be anyone named “McCain.”

  152. mnw says:

    Wes 159

    MIKE1965 has always been a waste of oxygen.

    To my earlier post, I would add: while 1 in 5 RRH posters are genuine conservatives &/or conventional Republicans, none of the moderators are. And they post more than anybody else. My impression is that the mods are predominantly snooty GOPe lawyers.

  153. Mr.Vito says:

    Ducey should appoint Kurt Warner.

    YEAH!

  154. mnw says:

    Vito

    If Warner makes his home in AZ, & if there’s enough evidence to convict him of being a Republican, that’s actually an intriguing idea.

    When Warner was in STL, I can’t recall him doing or saying anything political… unlike Tony LaRussa (R), Jim Hart (R), or Bill Bradley (D).

  155. Mr.Vito says:

    He is such an amazing role model, I don’t even know how much I care about his party.

  156. mnw says:

    Vito

    OK… Warner lives in Scottsdale, & he HAS participated in a few GOP events, most recently on 2014.

    As u probably know, he spends a great deal of his life promoting Christian charities, He’s 47.

    He would actually be a fabulous choice. Nice catch.

  157. Tina says:

    ‘Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’
    @NolteNC
    55m
    When CNN believe the McCain Hatefest would hurt Trump, CNN’s Ana Navarro could hardly contain herself. Now that CNN has figured out the Hatefest blowback is real, CNN’s Ryan Lizza is standing in front of an elephant and asking “What elephant?” #ThisIsCNN pic.twitter.com/WRdP0lIn4R
    View photo ·

    Good job uni team.

  158. lisab says:

    is justin trudeau fidel casto’s son?

    at least half a dozen people have told me they look exactly alike.

    https://nationalpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/justin-trudeau-fidel-castro.jpg

  159. lisab says:

    bill clinton and ariana grande

    https://i.redd.it/xet35nhsjsj11.jpg

  160. lisab says:

    cnn praises ocasio-cortez’s plan to make everyone a millionaire through hyper-inflation

  161. Mr.Vito says:

    Come on. You can’t put that out there without giving us a link or a source.

  162. Tgca says:

    162

    Snotty lawyer? I have never heard that term before. It seems a bit like you’re trying to monkey things up for lawyers. Shame!

  163. Tgca says:

    I may not agree with Beto O’Rouke’s politics but I don’t like folks trying to character assassinate him for a run-in with the law 20 years ago where he served his sentence. So he was caught drunk driving? What Irish man hasn’t?

    So he did not mention in his mea culpas over the years that it involved a vehicular crash and that he tried to flee the scene of the crime but was detained by witnesses. He just probably forgot that part because who remembers everything one does when they’re drunk, right?

  164. Mr.Vito says:

    “What Irish man hasn’t?”

    John McCain?

  165. Tgca says:

    …and let’s not forget Cruz and Rubio had their own run-ins with the law as youngsters.

    Cruz got caught by police with a can of unopened beer in his car when he was 17. Why isn’t he resigning his seat for this despicable act?

    At 18, Rubio got caught with a friend in a park drinking beer. He also violated a municipal ordinance of being in the park after dark. Why isn’t he in prison? …we know he was up to no good because he was also known for frequenting foam parties back then.

    Just saying folks.

  166. Tgca says:

    103

    I did not know Bitter and Jason were butt buddies. Hmmm…that explains a lot. It’s sad when butt buddies are no more. I clearly sense from Jason’s frequent critiques of Bitter that perhaps Jason was on the losing end of that relationship. After all, what did Bitter ever do wrong besides being a lawyer and frequent flower shows?

  167. Mr.Vito says:

    “8)”

    Who’s that masked man?

  168. Mr.Vito says:

    Wait…

    Is it?

    ….

    GRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!

  169. Mr.Vito says:

    Lanny Davis: “I do think, for everybody who deals with the media in my position, this is a lesson, maybe a teaching moment. Don’t even float stories on background, which is our expression for anonymously, unless you have a certainty of the facts, and you’re asking reporters to go look to confirm those facts.”

    Read that carefully and you get…

    The expression “Anonymous Source” may as well mean rumor mill.

  170. Mr.Vito says:

    Read it carefully again and you get…

    Anonymous sources are worthless without confirmation first, in which case, anonymous sources are totally worthless, because you could just report your confirmation.

  171. Tgca says:

    So is what Yo Vito is saying is that we can not rely on anonymous sources reporting on Rubio at foam parties?

    There goes my opportunity to ask Rubio what it’s like when I attend one of his Florida outings.

    I’ve never been to a foam party and wonder what’s it like. But I’ve been in a steam room at the 24 Hour Fitness in San Francisco and I can attest to why many straight guys in SF don’t go into gym steam rooms.

  172. Wes says:

    This is why I don’t post on RRH, Mnw:

    JNCCA
    September 2, 2018 at 3:59 pm | In reply to Son_of_the_South
    I think the cruelty is that Black murderers (especially those who kill Whites) are disproportionately likely to get the death penalty compared to White murderers.
    I don’t think the death penalty is cruel in and of itself, but the application could be classified as such.
    25, CA-6. Disaffected Dem. Pro-Environmentalism, Equal Opportunity, Nationalism, and Order.

    This post is simply absurd. I would rip the guy about seven or eight new ones for this intellectually bankrupt post before the mods descended on me like a pack of rabid hyenas and banned me for hurting his feelings by pointing out the utter stupidity in his post.

  173. Wes says:

    He clearly needs a dictionary to learn both the denotative and connotative definitions of the word “cruel.”

  174. Wes says:

    This is the link to the dictionary.com page for “cruel”:

    https://www.dictionary.com/browse/cruel?s=t

    Nowhere is a disparate effect on people of different races mentioned or implied.

  175. lisab says:

    actually the source for rubio was himself

    he addressed it on national tv

    so it was not anonymous

    although, i think he was older than 18

  176. mnw says:

    Wes 183

    I TOLD you about him already! THAT’s the azalea who uses the “ice cream cone” icon!

    HE is the droolcup-dependent subdelta moron who explained to me that Trump’s improvement with AAs, shown by multiple pollsters, can be easily explained by… wait for it… Trump-supporting WHITES lying to pollsters by claiming that they’re BLACK!

    You just can’t argue with logic like that– worse than our own homegrown trolls here, even.

    “Ice cream icon” boy is worse than VASTBLIGHTWINGCOSPIRACY, worse than SHAMLET or MOSHEM or ROGUEMAPPER. He is the WORST!

  177. mnw says:

    P.S.

    Usually I don’t argue with the DEMs & NeverTrumpers over there– that would be appx 4/5 of all posts at RRH, btw.

    What I DO try to do is, reinforce posters like CER; RAYINMA; & HONEYBEE who get always crucified, & desperately need some help, to keep their sanity. That’s why my posts often follow theirs.

  178. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    You are a terrific wordsmith!

    “HE is the droolcup-dependent subdelta moron…”

    IMHO, the top five jerks at Red Racing Horses are,in order:
    Roguemapper
    Election Brown
    Tekzilla
    BoehnerWasRight
    MikeFL

  179. mnw says:

    Sheep

    FINE, FINE list! …but you absolutely have to find room for “ice cream cone boy” JNCCA on there somewhere. THAT’s the one Wes & I have been discussing above.

  180. Wes says:

    I remember reading RRH on Election Night 2014. The leftist bobble heads over there were all in on a circle jerk of MD-style talking points about how it was neutral (read: good for Dems) night.

    Then returns came in. One guy called out a particularly egregious poster for his wildly off base predictions only to have a whiny so-called “Republican” beg him to stop hurting the libs’ feelings for rightly pointing out the Kossian Kool-Aid drinkers had never known what they were talking about.

    To his credit, Roguemapper congratulated the real Republicans for what can only be described as a great night for the GOP.

  181. Bitterlaw says:

    I did not know Bitter and Jason were butt buddies. Hmmm…that explains a lot. It’s sad when butt buddies are no more. I clearly sense from Jason’s frequent critiques of Bitter that perhaps Jason was on the losing end of that relationship. After all, what did Bitter ever do wrong besides being a lawyer and frequent flower shows?

    No 2 A-holes are the same. I thought Tgca would know that. Sometimes A-holes are tighter than at other times.

  182. Mr.Vito says:

    “No 2 A-holes are the same.”

    Are those like No 2 Pencils?

  183. mnw says:

    Vito

    U know, Warner really WOULD be an amazing choice. For starters, he could go around with McSally & sign autographs at her events. Then, he could come to MO & do the same thing with Hawley. Then, he could be a huge GOP FR draw everywhere else.

  184. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw and Wes:
    Wes, roguemapper is a pompous, snarky, smartest- man- in- the- room scowl! In 2014,after about 5,000 early votes were cast in the NC Senate contest between Kay Hagan(D) and Thom Tillis(R), he proclaimed, with complete certitude, victory for Hagan, who ultimately lost by 75,000 votes.

    mnw, the “sub-delta moron” at RRH gets Honorable Mention along with ManhatLibertarian, RRR, GorrestFrump, Ryan in SEPA and Moshem. There are others.

  185. Tim Tebow says:

    I don’t think Warner is really a Christian or conservative. Jason told me that no team in the NFL would sign somebody like that.

  186. Wes says:

    Let me ask the standard liberal question:

    TORIE
    September 3, 2018 at 7:59 am
    I agree with getting rid of cash bail in most instances, which is discriminatory, and the bulk of the druggies should not be in jail, but to me the most important thing is giving prisoners the tools to make it outside when released without reverting to crime. So I would focus an substance abuse, job training in prison, and then a release system that operates in steps, starting with working outside at a job (perhaps government arranged) during the day, returning to prison at night, and then living in half way houses and so forth. Far too many prisoners are just dumped on the streets without interim steps, and that leads to a high recidivism rate until the hormones wane sometime in middle age. All of this will cost more money, at least in the short run.
    Government really does need to spend a lot of money on unmet social needs, most particularly for subsidized medical care that is so horrifically expensive. That is why it is just not practicable to reduce government spending. It needs actually to go up still more, even after getting rid of stuff like agricultural subsidies, and the like. And that is why I am now a Democrat in part. New challenges lead to new policy solutions, and what one believed might have been appropriate at one time, no longer is.
    65 – NY-19 (D)

    How are we going to pay for it?

  187. J. Cutler says:

    Warner’s overrated.

  188. Diamond Jim says:

    😎

  189. Diamond Jim says:

    CC

  190. mnw says:

    Sheep 195

    You certainly have mastered your RRHology (like Kremlinology).

    I had forgotten Ryan in SEPA. He’d have to go on my own top 5 list.

    Roguemapper is the one the moderators worship– because he produces their maps concerning redistricting.

    Ace Of Spades is a site I like. If RRH is a white table cloth restaurant, then AOS is a greasy spoon burger joint. It has a million posters, & only 30% of the content is political. The moderators there (whatever they’re called) are pretty sharp, too.

  191. jason says:

    I did not know Bitter and Jason were butt buddies. Hmmm…that explains a lot. It’s sad when butt buddies are no more. I clearly sense from Jason’s frequent critiques of Bitter that perhaps Jason was on the losing end of that relationship. After all, what did Bitter ever do wrong besides being a lawyer and frequent flower shows?”

    Zzzzz…

    Others have tried to drive a wedge between the A-holes, this sordid attempt will fail too. Our bond cannot be broken by minor fall outs on matters that don’t really matter.

    We agree on the big thing issues, such as the Civil War and slavery.

    Bitter and I have an unbreakable bond. Anybody trying to find a crack between these A-hole will be disappointed.

  192. jason says:

    So you survive to 87, go visit your wife’s grave, and get killed by Chris Berman’s wife, drunk as a skunk.

    “HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — The wife of longtime ESPN broadcaster Chris Berman had a blood-alcohol level three times the legal limit when she rear-ended another man’s car, killing them both, according to a state police report.

    The Hartford Courant reports that police determined Katherine Berman was speeding and did not apply her brakes before crashing into a car driven by 87-year-old Edward Bertulis.

    Bertulis was on his way back from visiting his wife’s grave at the time of the crash on May 9, 2017, in Woodbury.”

  193. Tgca says:

    Does it take a gay man to see the irony in these posts from accused butt buddies?

    192 Bitter
    No 2 A-holes are the same. … Sometimes A-holes are tighter than at other times.

    202 Jason
    Anybody trying to find a crack between these A-hole will be disappointed.

  194. mnw says:

    The TX DEMs are getting ready to use Trump’s “lying’ Ted” tweets against Cruz.

    That’s certainly fair. But I’m not clear how that’s supposed to work? Convince Trump voters to vote for Beto & against Cruz? Silly.

    Convince people who detest Trump to… what? Vote for Beto? They’re going to do that already.

    All I can figure is that this is just part of a larger effort to attack Cruz’ character in general. And perhaps to embarrass both Trump & Cruz during Trump’s rally there.

  195. Wes says:

    That’s the point, Tg. The posts are intentionally insidiously gay because of the nickname given to certain posters by former poster Gary the Whiny Bitch Maxwell.

  196. Wes says:

    Meanwhile Beto endangered several people while driving under the influence and tried to flee the scene of the stop only to have his father—a judge—let him off lightly.

    That’s not exactly the kind of guy I’d expect to represent Texas in the Senate. It’s just a shame TX Republicans have a smarmy, unlikable narcissist such as Ted Cruz as their sitting Senator/nominee. This race would never have been remotely competitive with a likable, generic Republican in Cruz’ place.

  197. Tgca says:

    206 Wes

    Clearly I see that Bitter and Jason are playing on words in their posts. I’m not a real blonde after all. However, I don’t remember the details of Gary Maxwell’s posts though the poster name is familiar. I would take some sabbaticals from HHR while focused on work so I occasionally missed some memorable moments.

    What names did he give and why?

    Why is he a Whiney Beotch?

  198. Tgca says:

    …and before I forget. Here’s to all the mom’s who suffered through painful hours to bring that little bundle of joy into the world. On this day we do not forget you and honor your role in population replenishment.

  199. jason says:

    Hilarious.

    MSM admits Fauxcahontas lied about her heritage but claims “it didn’t help her” at Harvard so I guess it’s ok.

    https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/09/03/really-medias-attempts-to-run-cover-for-elizabeth-warren-over-heritage-claims-are-overheating-bs-detectors/?utm_campaign=twitchywidget

  200. jason says:

    Clearly I see that Bitter and Jason are playing on words in their posts”

    Remarkable perspicacity.

  201. Tgca says:

    212 Jason

    I see you learned a new word today. Cool! That’s why I admire you so. I might still have my notebooks from my SAT prep days. You want? They’re filled with thousands of words we prepped for on the SAT. I had one English teacher that provided us like 50 words a week for 2 years. I’ve also added a few slang ones myself that you just might find interesting.

  202. jason says:

    What a surprise… Trump’s new buddy likes it when Trump follows the AFL-CIO agenda, but not enough to actually vote for candidates that would support him.

    “President Donald Trump has done more to hurt American workers than help them, the leader of the largest federation of unions in the nation declared on Sunday. Union workers will likely support Democratic candidates in November, predicted AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka.”

  203. Wes says:

    Basically, Tg, Maxwell was a narcissistic bitchboy who regarded every disagreement with him as a personal attack and savaged brutally anyone not subscribing to his his philosophy.

    On his final day as a regular Hedgehogger in August 2011, he launched into a smarmy farewell tirade attacking MD and Bitterlaw as “Philly @ssholes” and giving some bizarre tangent about wooden bats vs. metal bats in baseball.

    He thankfully departed after his rant. From it we have the origin of the Philly A-holes, the Maxwell Scale (ranking posters giving farewell posts), and Maxwell Day when a Hedgehogger will repost Maxwell’s departure pabulum.

  204. jason says:

    Snifff… Tgca wants to humiliate me talking about SATs and preps when he knows the only thing I could prepare for was the Llama Husbandry Academy.

    So yeah, he probably knows more English than I do, but I bet I speak at least 4 other languages better than he does…(sticks tongue out at Tgca)

  205. Wes says:

    I almost forgot. Maxwell prided himself on being a Texan despite being a soccer-loving punk from Michigan.

  206. jason says:

    om it we have the origin of the Philly A-holes,”

    Yeah, we really have to credit GM for this immensely valuable contribution.

    A world without the A-holes would be as sad as flowers without scent.

  207. mnw says:

    RAS:

    47/51 today. Zero’s corresponding numbers for Labor Day 2010 were 45/54.

    Trump is at 47 for the month of August. His best month ever was 49.

    I’m hopeful that Trump’s TX appearance with Cruz will be what Cruz needs.

    I see the midterms as being all about getting the Obama/Trump voters to come out again, in numbers proportionate (not identical) to 2016. In other words, same midterm turnout level as the DEMs. Obviously the midterm turnout will be smaller for both parties in absolute numbers. I don’t feel like I said that very well. It goes to the supposed “enthusiasm gap.”

  208. Mr.Vito says:

    Hogg should totally give credence to Trump nicknames right before he gives one to Beto.

    Smart play.

  209. ReadyFirst says:

    219. mnw, I got your meaning and agree, turnout will be up from midterm 2014 but obviously not as high as 2016, a presidential year. My local turnout was up roughly a third from 2014. The end result was voting increases for both parties in proportionate levels compared to 2014. Trump rallies, racism (monkey comment) accusations, and tacky funerals can change all that.

  210. ReadyFirst says:

    That’s disgusting Wes! That kind of thinking is so hard to understand.

  211. lisab says:

    How are we going to pay for it? (re: prison reform)
    ———–

    we already pay huge amounts for not doing it

    druggies steal to support their habit

    criminals steal

    and sometimes hurt others severely

    even if they don’t steal or hurt others, the cost of welfare is enormous

    there were at least 52 shootings in chicago alone over labor day weekend

    it would be far better to give them a job. idle hands are the devils handiwork as the saying goes.

    if you have to get up every day at 6am to be at work by 8am to be a construction worker for example, you are too busy and tired to commit crimes at 3am in the morning — (a job like building a wall for example)

    and for those who are irredeemable?

    i say take away all the weight rooms in prison and start having buffets … let the redeemable prisoners learn how to cook by making high calorie foods for the irredeemable ones

    pizza and sundaes every day 6 times a day in prison! potato chips? you bet. loaded nachos and beer! yep.

    basically every hard core prisoner should be at least 450 pounds upon release …

    a.) it will be easier for victims to run away from them, at least uphill

    b.) they will be easier to spot … “(calls 911) uh oh, i have a 600 pound man approaching me … actually i guess i can outrun him though”

    c.) they won’t be able to run away from police any more

    d.) they won’t be able to crawl through windows, at least not second story windows

    e.) and they will be easier to pick out of a lineup — “victim: the portly one. cop: you’re sure? victim: yup, the one with double chins”

  212. Wes says:

    This is the part of his post I was referring to with the “How are we going to pay for it?” comment, Lisa:

    Government really does need to spend a lot of money on unmet social needs, most particularly for subsidized medical care that is so horrifically expensive. That is why it is just not practicable to reduce government spending. It needs actually to go up still more, even after getting rid of stuff like agricultural subsidies, and the like. And that is why I am now a Democrat in part. New challenges lead to new policy solutions, and what one believed might have been appropriate at one time, no longer is.
    65 – NY-19 (D)

    He wasn’t talking about prison reform but demanding free health care in this part.

  213. mnw says:

    RF

    I thought Balderson (R) in OH-12 did an outstanding job of demonstrating how the GOP can lose everything imaginable in 2018.

    Someone, probably GOPe consultants, must’ve told him to be non-controversial & to keep a low profile. After all, OH-12 has a huge GOP lean, so why not avoid risks? What could go wrong?

    Balderson is now Congressman Balderson for one reason & one reason only: Trump’s unscheduled, last minute rally there saved his adz. (I suspect there was a lot of overlap between Kasich’s advisors & Balderson’s advisors.)

    The “issues” Balderson chose to talk about* were not central to the concerns of Obama/Trump voters, & they responded by showing up in…un-droves. I think Balderson took these voters for granted, but they are NOT Republicans.

    Replicating Balderson’s campaign strategy will make the blue wave a reality. Because that’s what happens when one side shows up, & the other side doesn’t.

    *education funding & prescription opioid abuse! (NO trade; NO border security.)

  214. Wes says:

    If Republicans are relying on Obama voters, then the GOP has a TREMENDOUS electoral problem. The Obama coalition was composed of voters looking for government handouts. Those Trump peeled off were mostly lower-class whites who are economically liberal but fed up with Dems’ demagoguery of them.

    Even with this group, Trump won strictly because Hillary took him for granted and drove the core of his coalition further into his fold with a series of disparaging remarks.

    In the special elections held since Trump took office, Republicans have seen their vote share decline whether they backed Trump to the hilt or were cool to him. This, I’m not entirely certain Republicans will win by relying on turnout from a bunch of lower-class, fiscally liberal whites who turned against the Dems only because Dems expressed contempt for them.

  215. lisab says:

    i think a form of free health care is mandatory for a civilized society, for the poor …

    but that does not mean it needs to be the same level of care as a person who pays $1000 a month or more for health care.

    scrap the free personal physicians that obamacare gives, and let them go to clinics staffed by physician assistants, nurse practitioners and med students/residents.

    if it is serious, then they can get a bump up in service to a hospital

  216. mnw says:

    Wes

    As I’m sure you know, I’m not talking about “Obama voters,” I’m talking about the voters who already abandoned the DEMs ONCE.

    The crowds who showed up for Trump & Balderson, & again for Trump & Braun, were not there because of Hillary. Not any more.

    This is an issue/GOP strategy about which we just disagree.

  217. Wes says:

    I’m just going by what you said, Mnw. You said Obama/Trump voters. The profile for that kind of voter is a downscale White who voted for Obama because of his promise of government goodies in 2012 but voted for Trump in 2012 because Trump highlighted the very real contempt Dems feel for them.

    I don’t see that as a sustainable electoral base for the GOP unless Republicans are absolutely determined to go back to the big-spending GWB days and completely undermine any remote pretense of fiscal responsibility.

  218. mnw says:

    If those voters can not be made part of a “sustainable electoral base,” then the GOP can contemplate continuous defeat as far as the eye can see.

    I don’t think these voters want to return to “high spending GWB ways.” I think they are more interested in the whole Trump economic improvement package, plus border security.

    Balderson called Trump like someone dialing 911.

  219. jason says:

    MSM speculates that maybe Mary Jo would have thought it was ok to sacrifice herself for the good of Teddy’s career as a liberal lion.

    Unfortunately she is not here to confirm this idiocy.

    “Mary Jo wasn’t a right-wing talking point or a negative campaign slogan…. We don’t know how much Kennedy was affected by her death, or what she’d have thought about arguably being a catalyst for the most successful Senate career in history…. [One wonders what] Mary Jo Kopechne would have had to say about Ted’s death, and what she’d have thought of the life and career that are being (rightfully) heralded. Who knows — maybe she’d feel it was worth it.”

  220. Wes says:

    You’re talking about people who voted for Obama because he promised a grab bag of federal goodies paid for by the rich. (Of course Obama lied and raised their taxes as well, but I digress.)

    I think the Obama/Trump voters’ stance on federal spending is clear. In other words, it’s perfectly fine so long as they benefit.

    They aligned with the GOP only because Hillary couldn’t say enough bad about them in 2012 and managed to get Trump only to 46% of the national vote and an electoral college victory that barely materialized because Hillary was a poor campaigner.

    What happens if the Dems tone down the anti-white rhetoric and the economy falters while Trump is President?

    Do you really think they’re going to stick with him then or answer the Dems’ siren call of more federal spending?

  221. Wes says:

    Ugh. Twice my phone autocorrected to 2012 when I typed 2016. Ggggrrrr…

  222. Wes says:

    That’s sick, Jason. So much for the Dem meme of “war on women” when they’re defending a case of DUI manslaughter—a violent crime—against one.

    That’s effectively spitting in a dead woman’s face.

    Maybe they can dredge up the waitress Kennedy tried to rape on top of Chris Dodd and ask her if she was happy to take one for the team to keep that lecherous sleazeball in office.

  223. Phil says:

    Beto needs to move to Massachusetts and run for the senate. Those voters there just love a candidate who is a drunk and leaves the scene of an accident. Would no doubt be a four or five term lock – absolutely a perfect fit for that state. Senator or life.

  224. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    In my view the most plausible theory of what happened at Chappaquiddick was that stated in a BBC documentary, and also by Jack Olsen.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-sSB5SHt5c

    Kennedy and Kopechne were stopped on the side of the road. Sheriff Huck Look stopped and was walking over to check the car. Kennedy did not want to received a DUI and have to explain why he was in car with a young woman. He quickly drove off a short distance, then Kennedy got out and hid. Kopechne drove the car further down the road and off the bridge.

    It would have been all but impossible for Kennedy to get out of the window of the upside down car, as the BBC video shows. There also were massive holes in his story.

  225. Tina says:

    Kraperdick is the sjw face for Nike.

    This will not end well for them.

  226. Lets not forget that the liberals who are calling Trump immoral now, where gushing with admiration for Kennedy at the time of his death less than a decade ago. The fact that he had caused the death of a young woman notwithstanding.

  227. mnw says:

    Wes

    As I see it, u & I are just disagreeing about tactics: “What is the best way to attract voters who will support the GOP Congressional nominees to the polls for a midterm GE?”

    That’s not exactly like arguing over the Dred Scott decision, or Truman’s call on bombing Hiroshima.

    EVERY president in history suffers if the economy goes bad. So what? I believe there is a lot deeper alienation among Obama/Trump voters than you do. These people want jobs, not another govt freebie. handout.

    I also think that Trump’s combination of deregulation; tax cuts; incentives to bring profits back to the U.S.; and better trade deals may keep the economy growing for a long time.

  228. Wes says:

    The only problem with your logic, Mnw, is that the Obama/Trump voters voted for Obama on the economic issue of getting government handouts and abandoned the Dems thereafter when the Obama and his cronies specifically began blaming them for all the country’s ills starting in 2014.

    You yourself noted they’re not Republicans. They voted Democratic because of Obama’s Santa Claus economics with the promise of soaking the rich to pay for their freebies. They abandoned the Dems when the Dems basically revealed they were useful who had served their purpose and were now on the wrong side of the Dems’ “war on everything not white, male, and straight” meme.

    I wouldn’t trust a coalition of voters who voted one way for handouts and another way because of race as a stable coalition because one day the Dems will stop their demagoguery at least openly and free these people up to start voting again for the party of government handouts.

    I’m sorry, but I just can’t get behind the idea that people who voted for a class demagogue like Obama are ever going to be the basis for a stable coalition of voters inside a party putatively supporting small government and less federal spending.

  229. jason says:

    Kennedy and Kopechne were stopped on the side of the road. Sheriff Huck Look stopped and was walking over to check the car. Kennedy did not want to received a DUI and have to explain why he was in car with a young woman. He quickly drove off a short distance, then Kennedy got out and hid. Kopechne drove the car further down the road and off the bridge.

    It would have been all but impossible for Kennedy to get out of the window of the upside down car, as the BBC video shows. There also were massive holes in his story.”:

    I don’t believe that version at all. Mary Jo wasn’t drunk, so that makes it a lot less likely she would drive off a bridge. Also if that was the situation she would have been driving slowly. A car does not sink immediately, so there was time for Kennedy to get out. For sure we know he was a good swimmer.

    However, the idea Kennedy was trying to get away from the area quickly to avoid the sheriff could well have contributed to the accident.

  230. jason says:

    I’m sorry, but I just can’t get behind the idea that people who voted for a class demagogue like Obama are ever going to be the basis for a stable coalition of voters inside a party putatively supporting small government and less federal spending.”

    I have been following the argument, there are good points on both sides.

    But I think wes pretty much nailed it down with the above sentence.

  231. Wes says:

    We should also take note that Trump won with these people while generally losing ground in states carried by Romney and McCain, falling below Romney’s share of the total national vote, and decimating Republicans in closely divided states such as NH and NV.

    Trump’s saving grace was an unlikable, entitled, elitist opponent who took victory for granted and openly disparaged anyone who didn’t support her. She still almost won three states—MI, WI, and PA—Trump simply couldn’t have won without and attracted millions more voters nationwide than he did. Indeed I fully believe Trump would have lost had Beau Biden not died, thus causing Joe Biden—who had been catering to the types of voters Trump targeted—to pass on the race.

    Candidate quality mattered, and although Trump squeaked by in several critical states, his electoral coalition was very narrowly focused much as Bush’s in 2004 and Obama’s in 2012 were. In addition, since then, regardless of how closely the candidates adhered to Trump, they have not been enough to avoid a decline in GOP vote shares in special elections, in at least two instances for different reasons resulting in critical losses.

    For all the above reasons, I wouldn’t trust a horde of former Obama supporters to save Republicans in general or even Trump in particular once Dems decide to quit actively snubbing them. They’re simply too fickle for that.

  232. Wes says:

    It’s not really an argument, Jason. It’s more of a reasoned debate between two disparate views of the makeup of a viable electoral coalition.

  233. Tina says:

    No way to understand what trump and sessions are doing.

    If trump is upset, why not fire him.

    Or, if sessions realizes he will be fired, why not resign?

    Trump has fired Sjw Yates, comedy, McCabe (through Sessions), Rex tillersson, etc.

  234. Tina says:

    He never aired any dirty laundry with those firings.

    Granted, sjw Yates should have been fired just for being a liberal Obama hack and incompetent,

    She lost a 9-0 decision and wanted Flynn charged with a bogus law.

  235. Phil says:

    Well, the Kamala Harris show begins tomorrow for all the nation to see. Obnoxious, self righteous, condescending, rude, surly – you’ll get to see her put it all on display. That’s right boys and girls – a full eye opening preview of your next president. Enjoy.

  236. Tina says:

    We have leftists now defending Sessions, as are the likes of useless Ben Sasse aka Sassehole.

    Interesting coalition of the dumb and dumber.

  237. Tina says:

    Kampala is Eric Holder 2.0. She does not mask her liberalism, like the obumblerr.

    It will be a sheot show.

    Thankfully, Mitchie and co are starting each session early.

  238. Wes says:

    I respect what Mnw is saying. I just disagree with his analysis and don’t find much support for the idea that Republicans need to cater to non-Republican former Obama supporters to win elections.

    I live in a state Trump carried, and I can say from firsthand experience he won here not by peeling off former Obama supporters but by hanging on to the voters Romney had attracted to beat Obama here in 2012.

  239. mnw says:

    Wes

    I just disagree with you that “The [Obama/Trump] voters voted for Obama to get govt freebies.”

    I think they voted for Obama mostly because they were terrified of the so-called Great Recession that started in 2008, the last year of GWB’s second term.

    Most Americans, including especially me, were PLENTY scared when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and Ford & Citibank seemed to be waiting in line, right behind Lehman. It was like The Texas Chainsaw Massacre– “Who will survive?… & what will be left of them?”

    ANY DEM, including John Nance Garner or Henry Wallace, could’ve won easily in 2008. Zero, of course, didn’t let a good crisis go to waste– he tried to gut private health insurance– but that’s not why he won.

  240. jason says:

    Vatican City (AFP) – Pope Francis on Monday said “silence and prayer” were the answer to those seeking “scandal and division”, amid a barrage of attacks from ultra-conservative Catholics.

    The pope has so far refused to respond to allegations made last month that he for years covered up sexual abuse allegations against a prominent US cardinal.”

    The Communist Pope, who has advocated class warfare since becoming Pope is now worried about “division”.

  241. jason says:

    Note those attacking the Pope are “ultra conservatives”.

  242. Phil says:

    Kamala will tear Kavanaugh a new one. It will be brutal.

  243. Tina says:

    Commie pope.

    Commie Cia Chief.

    Commies @justice

    ex Commie Fib Director.

    Commies everywhere.

  244. Wes says:

    That’s good analysis of 2008, Mnw, but I was referring to 2012–when Obama was running as a DC-based Santa Claus who would tax the rich to fund the grab bag of goodies he promised. He of course raised taxes on the lower classes too. That was a detail he conveniently forgot to mention when seeking reelection.

  245. Cash Cow TM says:

    Also, Shelley Moore Capito was in the photo.
    Walt was the handsome fellow at the far left of photo.

    Others were some fellow members of the WV House of Delegates in 2006.

  246. Cash Cow TM says:

    Commie-kazies….

  247. jason says:

    Walt doesn’t look a day over 800… must have good genes.

  248. Cash Cow TM says:

    jason,

    That is exactly what I tell the old guy.

    I asked him about his jeans.
    He said they are Levi jeans.

  249. Cash Cow TM says:

    Bitter is at the beach…
    Walt is at the beach….

    Is there a plot afoot?

  250. Phil says:

    so Nike has a new face…..

    Dumbest corporate move in the history of business.

    Is Phil Knight drunk?

  251. Tgca says:

    216 Jason

    I WOULD NEVER HUMILIATE YOU! Slap you down a notch…most definitely. But NEVER humiliate you. After all, I was the one who offered up marriage to keep you in the country when others were threatening to have you deported…as long as you adapted to my healthy diet.

    As for languages, good for you. I also am fluent in a couple and get by in some others. I believe in language diversity as well to effectively communicate wth others. I am fluent in English, Jersey Speak, and it’s distant cousin Profanity. I also know a good amount of Gay Gab, Trick Body Conversing, and JSL (Jersey Sign Language) and use it exclusively when I’m driving.

  252. lisab says:

    Mnw, is that the Obama/Trump voters voted for Obama on the economic issue of getting government handouts and abandoned the Dems thereafter when the Obama
    ———————————-

    you may not remember but obama’s message was one of hope and change, not government handouts.

    people wanted a change, they just did not get it.

  253. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    A man gets attacked for speaking the truth:

    “The Rev. Jasper Williams Jr., pastor at Salem Baptist Church in Atlanta, delivered the eulogy for (Aretha) Franklin, and used his time at the podium to raise social issues he said were critical to the black community: “Do black lives matter? Let me answer like this. No. Black lives do not matter, black lives will not matter, black lives ought not matter, black lives should not matter, black lives must not matter until black people start respecting black lives and stop killing ourselves, black lives can never matter,” Williams said.”

    Is Williams correct? Over 80% of those shot in the U.S. are African-American, as well as over 80% of those who do the shootings. “A violence-crazed thug culture of retribution and reprisal is killing black Americans”, which results in a massive homicide rate among African-Americans.

    “Nationwide, the black homicide victimization rate in 2011 was 17.51 per 100,000. The overall national homicide victimization rate was 4.44 per 100,000, and among white Americans, the homicide victimization rate was 2.64 per 100,000.”

    But we are supposed to pretend this does not exist to be politically correct. This reminds me a lot of the world that existed before the “MeToo” movement. If we pretend it does not exist, then it doesn’t.

  254. Wes says:

    I haven’t forgotten that at all, Lisa. That happened in 2008. It is, however, irrelevant to the topic as I was referring to 2012 when Obama ran a much different campaign. That should have been obvious since I said I was talking about 2012.

  255. Messy says:

    256. Commie: everyone to the political left of me that I don’t like.

    Fascist: everyone to the political right of me I don’t like.

  256. Messy says:

    So Trump is pro-crime (white collar variety), good to know. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45405757

    From last week: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/08/nyc-mulls-slapping-trump-organization-with-state-charges.html

    It’s true that Cy Vance is slightly corrupt, which is why Weistein wasn’t in the hoosegow ages ago and Ivana’s three kids aren’t there either.

    Finally, there’s a few corroborating polls with that pesky ABC/WaPo poll. IDB/TPP is almost the same for Trump’s approval, and except for Rassumssen (sic), all the generics have the Dems ten to fifteen points ahead.

    Y’all realize that had any other Republican been president with the current jobs numbers, they’d be in the mid-60s/low 70s and most of you would be stocking up on champagne for a joyous November.

  257. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Messy:
    We are stocking up on champagne for the Kavanaugh confirmation,which will give Republicans putative control of the federal judiciary for decades to come.

  258. Bitterlaw says:

    A gay man is trying to pry the A-holes apart? I love this place.

  259. Waingro says:

    Yikes the generic ballot polling over the last few days has been absolutely brutal. Hoping it’s just noise, but (gulp).

  260. Waingro says:

    RCP average almost at D+10 with a couple brutal polls dropping today. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

  261. mnw says:

    I interpret 2012 differently than Wes. In a nutshell, Zero could rightly claim that the economy had improved substantially since he was elected. Voters generally evaluate their presidents on the basis of ‘kitchen sink issues,’ unless we’re at war. So Zero had the advantage of incumbency & an improved economy.

    I doubt anyone could’ve beaten Zero in ’12, but in my view Romney was WORSE than “just anyone.” I liked what Romney said, & I voted for him (of course), but as a candidate? I think he stank on ice. He let Zero & the msm define him before he could even got out of the starting blocks.

    MO SEN:

    CNBC has a complex new poll out. When u cut through all the krap, it says the race is tied, in my view. (They polled 4 different variations of the ballot: 2-way, 4-way; LVs & RVs.)

  262. Tina says:

    Yeah, brutal, wp Plus 14, adults poll. You would think they would have done at least a reg voter, if not a likely voter model.

    I believe it!

  263. Tina says:

    Quittens was not a counter puncher.

    He could not take the blows.

  264. Tina says:

    Sjw Nike loses $3 billion in market cap at onset.

  265. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw:
    To believe the NBC/Marist Missouri Senate Poll showing Hawley(R) anywhere from +2 to -4 against the Sky Queen McCaskill(D), you would have to believe that The Donald’s approval/disapproval rating in your State is 46/47, repectively. Since you live in MO, Trump’s rating in the ballpark?

  266. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Waingro and Tina:
    The last WP/ABC Poll had the CGB at D+4.In this most recent poll,which is D+8 among RV’s,Republicans will still vote for a GOP candidate 92/6 and the GOP receives the plurality of Caucasian votes. This is very good news.(Their last poll had it 94/4.)The primary difference between the two polls is with Independents, which went from D+6 to D+24.

  267. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Gravis Marketing has a new Florida Poll:
    Senate- Scott(R) 47%- Nelson(D) 47%. (Their last poll had Nelson +4.)
    Governor- DeSantis(R) 45% – Gillen(D) 47%

  268. mnw says:

    45/53 today

    Sheep 281

    No.

  269. Phil says:

    The circus has begun.

    Pathetic.

  270. Robbie says:

    Unskew!

  271. Phil says:

    Booker, Harris, Durbin…..the whole motley crew on display. Predictable and pathetic.

  272. Tina says:

    The jebots are disrupting the Kavanaugh hearing.

    Pathetic losers aided by the drat senator.

    Pass the popcorn.

  273. Tina says:

    Sjw nike now down $4 billion in market cap.

  274. Phil says:

    Give them some more rope, Tina. Let them hang themselves.

  275. Phil says:

    A brilliant business decision, Tina.

  276. mnw says:

    Nike

    Don’t own it. Never have. No plan to do so. I always thought it was overpriced, with a lousy yield.

    However, from what I’ve read, Nike is consolidating its position as the clear leader in mens’ athletic footwear.

    I don’t think the stock will stay down, the stupidity notwithstanding. There are likely to be plenty of dip buyers when the headlines fade.

  277. Tina says:

    Yup brilliant. Almost like coke pushing new dome in the 1980s.

    It is genius.

  278. DW says:

    Morning Consult Generic ballot today:

    Dem 42
    GOP 40

  279. Wobbles says:

    Morning Consult Generic ballot today:

    Dem 42
    GOP 40″

    UNSKEW!

  280. mnw says:

    Or… just SKEW-off, trolly!

    Some DEM member of Congress gave those screaming protesters tickets. I hope it angers other members of the “GOP base” as much as it does me.

  281. NYCmike says:

    Robbie will be so “disappointed” if the Republicans lose the House!

    Can’t you feel his desperation that it could happen…..

  282. DW says:

    CA_50:

    Campa-Najjar 46%
    Hunter 46%

    Tulchin Research (D)

  283. Robbie says:

    LOL! Bob Woodward says Trump called Sessions mentally retarded and dumb Southerner.

    I can’t wait to hear the Trumpaloos defend this.

  284. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    September 4, 2018 at 11:19 am
    Robbie will be so “disappointed” if the Republicans lose the House!
    Can’t you feel his desperation that it could happen…..

    – I will be disappointed when Republicans lose the House and I will be disappointed when Republicans stupidly renominate the clownish oaf Trump in 2020. That said, I will thoroughly enjoy mocking all of you who said repeatedly everything was fine over the last year and a half even as poll after poll showed Republicans were about to get their teeth kicked in.

  285. NYCmike says:

    “I can’t wait to hear the Trumpaloos defend this.”

    -I am still trying to figure out how to defend you believing Bob Woodward…….

  286. NYCmike says:

    “That said, I will thoroughly enjoy mocking all of you …”

    -Election Night 2012 repeats itself….

  287. ReadyFirst says:

    Guess I read mnw’s Original quote of Obama/trump as suggesting gain parity in total party vote increases. I view Trumps platform more as one of conservatism and not as much republican vs. Democrat, even though republicans are obviously more conservative as a party. They’re hard to find, but there are still conservative Democrats. Trump needs to stick with the conservative message (lower taxes, judges, less regulation). I wasn’t originally a supporter. I voted for him, reluctantly. If you were to take away his Twitter, and revaluate Trump just on his policies, I like the way he’s governed. At best, there may be just a little blue Low tide, but no wave.

  288. Tina says:

    I will be so happy when ds win.

    Jebot

  289. ReadyFirst says:

    Articles and comments like this suggest no blue wave:
    “Another warning for Democrats: They were outvoted Tuesday, with Republican ballots exceeding Democratic ballots by more than 100,000 in Florida’s closed primaries that don’t allow independents to vote.

    “The results is clear: There is no blue wave in Florida,” wrote Scott’s Senate campaign manager Jackie Schultz Zeckman in a post-primary memo released publicly. Schultz Zeckman noted that while Democrats increased their primary turnout in comparison to the 2014 midterms, so did Republicans; the memo also cites Republicans garnering more new voter registrations in Florida since 2016 than Democrats.”
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-6113329/Gillum-Nelson-A-team-approach-Florida-Dems.html

  290. NYCmike says:

    ” If you were to take away his Twitter”

    -With all due respect, and I do agree that he uses it too much, but if you take away Twitter, you disarm yourself in the face of an ever-increasing hostile press.

    He should be more picky with his fights, but he NEEDS to set narratives on a daily basis, or else he, and the Republican Party, will go the way of Dubya in 2006.

    Hopefully, for the next 2 months, Trump will, on a daily basis, send out tweets having to do with a great economic performance, as well as wonderful judicial selections.

  291. DW says:

    I predicted this weeks ago. The GOP narrowed the GCB gap in polling, but all the forecasters were silent–not moving any seats in the GOP direction. But give them a few polls over a holiday weekend with large GCB leads for the dems and they rush out to move a whole pile of seats in the Dem direction.

    They could be right or wrong, but they are not objective, they are in an echo chamber and all cheerleading for the blue-wave.

    However, individual race polling does not support the blue-wave. As you can see in the dashboard below, many of the polls listed are PPP-D and Dem internals, and yet the GOP candidates are still holding up.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ——————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | RRH | Kos | 538 |Avg Scr. — Latest Poll R/D
    ——————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.7 —
    OK_05 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5 —
    PA_14* D | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.5 —
    CA_22 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.2 — 48/43 (Tulchin)
    NY_23 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    OH_10 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.2 —
    AK_01 | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 — 40/36 (Lake Res.)
    NC_08 R | 154 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5 —
    IN_09 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 —
    OH_07 R | 156 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5 —
    AZ_08 R | 157 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5 —
    MO_02 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | 5 — 51/40 (Rem.)
    IA_04 | 159 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.7 —
    CO_03 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.7 —
    NY_27 | 161 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    TX_31 R | 162 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 — 46/40 (PPP)
    FL_15* R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    IN_02 R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    FL_06* R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    MI_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.5 —
    SC_01 R | 167 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    CA_04 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    WI_06 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    FL_25 R | 170 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 46/39 (St. Pete)
    TX_21* R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 33/27 (Chg Res.)
    GA_07 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.2 — 44/46 (Tulchin)
    OH_14 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    PA_16 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 50/44 (D-Int)
    NC_02 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    MI_07 R | 176 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4 — 41/37 (DCCC-D)
    NY_24 R | 177 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 54/39 (Siena)
    FL_18 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    MI_06 R | 179 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 — 49/44 (GSG-D)
    CA_21 R | 180 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    WA_03 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.5 — 42/37 (Lake R.)
    FL_16 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 — 49/37 (PPP) | 48/44 (D-Int)
    IL_14 R | 183 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 — 45/41 (PPP)
    NY_01 R | 184 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    GA_06* R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    PA_10 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.2 —
    CA_50 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3 — 47/39 (SUSA) | 46/46 (Tulchin)
    AR_02 R | 188 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | 3 — 47/42 (PPP)
    NY_11 R | 189 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3 —
    VA_05 R | 190 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.7 —
    IL_13 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.5 — 45/42 (PPP)
    MT_01 R | 192 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | 2.5 — 43/49 (Gravis)
    NM_02* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.2 — 49/35 (Carroll)
    WA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.2 — 44/38 (elway)
    NC_13 R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2 — 40/35 (Civitas)
    VA_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 — 48/42 (PPP)
    UT_04 R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 — 45/39 (Salt Lake)
    WI_01* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2 — 40/41 (GSG-D)
    OH_12 R | 199 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6 — 48/44 (PPP)
    WV_03* R | 200 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 1.5 — 41/43 (Monm.)
    PA_01 R | 201 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3 — 49/42
    TX_32 R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | 1.2 — 47/45 (GBA)
    NE_02 R | 203 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 1.2 —
    OH_01 R | 204 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Toss | 1 — 43/42 (PPP)
    IL_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1 — 44/37 (Victory Res.)
    NJ_03 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Toss | 0.8 — 41/40 (Monm.)
    VA_07 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 —
    IL_12 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.8 — 44/39 (PPP)
    KS_03 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 0.6 — 43/46 (GSG-D)
    NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.6 — 45/47 (GQR-D)
    FL_26 R | 211 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.6 — 48/41 (DCCC-D)
    MN_03 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 0.6 — 43/46 (PPP)
    ME_02 R | 213 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.5 — 40/39 (D-Int)
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 34/39 (Mellman-D)
    MI_08 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 45/39 (Target Ins)
    TX_23 R | 216 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | 0.3 — 44/43 (PPP)
    TX_07 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 47/45 (D-Int.)
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 41/45 (D-Int.)
    KY_06 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.2 —
    CA_45 R | 216 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 45/44 (D-Int)
    NY_19 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena)
    NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.1 — 43/44 (D-Int)
    MN_08* D | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0 — 51/45 (GBA)
    IA_01 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln D | 0 — 41/43 (D Int.)
    MN_01* D | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 —
    CA_39* R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 45/43 (DCCC-D)
    CA_10 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.1 — 48/48 (GHY-D)
    CA_25 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.1 — 47/47 (IMGE)
    CA_48 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 45/47 (Monm.)
    CO_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — (45/45 IMGE)
    NY_22 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 40/47 (Zogby) | 44/46 (Siena)
    MN_02 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 43/42 (PPP)
    MI_11* R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.7 — 42/45 (PPP)
    PA_07* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | -1.6 —
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | -1.6 — 38/40 (Monmouth)
    VA_10 R | 199 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8 — 39/49 (Monm.)
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | -1.8 — 46/43 (R-Int)
    NH_01* D | 197 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8 —
    AZ_02* R | 196 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | -1.8 —
    NV_03* D | 195 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.8 —
    PA_17 R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | -2.2 — 39/51 (Monm.)
    NV_04* D | 193 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.7 — 41/41 (R-Int)
    FL_27* R | 192 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | -3.2 —
    AZ_01 D | 191 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -3.2 —
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -3.5 — 46/47 (St. Pete)
    MN_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5 —
    PA_08 D | 188 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5 —
    NJ_05 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -4 — 39/36 (R-Int)
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | -4 —
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2 — 39/44 (PPP)
    CA_07 D | 184 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.5 — 41/50 (POS)
    CT_05* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | -4.5 —
    PA_05* R | 182 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    AZ_09* D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    NH_02 D | 180 | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5 —
    CA_24 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.2 — 46/47 (Olive Tree St.)
    NY_18 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.2 —
    WI_03 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5 —
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5 —
    NY_25 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 — 31/55 (Siena)
    FL_13 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    OR_05 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    NY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    KY_03 D | 171 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    MD_06 D | 170 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —

    *indicates open seat

  292. ReadyFirst says:

    NYC, you said it better, I meant that as a metaphor for Trump seems at times to be thin skinned and picks the wrong fights. He sjould be presidential AND use his twitter. Not every rouge comment deserves a salty reply. At the end of the day, I like his policies more, so I tolerate, but cringe at his Twitter usage.

  293. Tina says:

    Ducey to announce replacement for McCain at 1 est.

  294. mnw says:

    Tina 310

    Thanks. Had not heard that.

    RF

    My original post, which you reference above, was just making the commonplace observation that GOP enthusiasm needs to be equal to that of DEMs to avoid a midterm blue wave. Not exactly rocket science on my part. I said I thought Trump was the key to achieving enthusiasm parity, as witnessed in OH-12 recently.

    I agree that Trump is very high maintenance & does a lot of silly &/or vulgar stuff that I wouldn’t do, but then… he’s POTUS & I’m not.

  295. mnw says:

    Kyl

    Talk about a short timer. The man is 76. Nobody hates him, though.

  296. Phil says:

    Hey, if Bob Woodward reported it, it’s got to be true. Probably confirmed by Dan Rather.

  297. ReadyFirst says:

    New thread

  298. NYCmike says:

    Ready,

    The only thing I can say about Trump and his twitter account is becoming President has NOT CHANGED him one bit…..other than maybe the bedding of porn stars……but I’ll leave that up to Robbie and “CG” to carp about.

  299. ReadyFirst says:

    NYC, he is president, and I’m not. I bet one steak dinner against him once, I won’t make that mistake again, lol.