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GA Gov Race Tied, Dems Lead Senate Races in IN and TN

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a new poll for the gubernatorial race in Georgia that has race basically tied at 45%.

GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (AJC)
Brian Kemp (R) 45%
Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

This poll was done August 26-September 4 among likely voters. I am sure also concerning to Republicans are two new US Senate polls from NBC News and Marist College for Indiana and Tennessee showing Republicans losing in both states.

US SENATE – TENNESSEE (NBC/Marist)
Phil Bredesen (D) 48%
Marsha Blackburn (R) 46%

US SENATE – INDIANA (NBC/Marist)
Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 49%
Mike Braun (R) 43%

The TN poll was done August 25-28 and the IN poll was done August 26-29, both among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:53 am
Filed under: General | Comments (520)

520 Responses to “GA Gov Race Tied, Dems Lead Senate Races in IN and TN”

  1. Tina says:

    More nbc./Marxist polls.

  2. Bitterlaw says:

    Just reweight the polls until the Republican leads. Problem solved.

  3. Cash Calf says:

    Moo.

  4. ReadyFirst says:

    Guess I missed the worm this morning. Plus, I find out I’m a racist for not supporting Obama (great logic there Messy). Maybe I can redeem myself by watching the Packers beat the Bears tonight?

  5. Hugh says:

    Marsha and Brian will both win comfortably. I am not sure about Indiana. But if the Republicans to nationalize this election with a simple message I suspect Joe will lose.

  6. mnw says:

    pimp your trollblog, baby!

  7. mnw says:

    The GA GOV poll is a college poll, from the Univ of Georgia School of Public Affairs.

    BL 2

    TH
    hap’s EXACTLY what the DEM Wise Men at RRH did when the Selzer poll came out earlier this week– immediately dismissed it as “an obvious outlier.”

  8. mnw says:

    #9 post sb “That’s exactly”

  9. jason says:

    The Indiana race is beginning to look like Young vs. Bayh. A 6 pt lead as in incumbent in a red state in a Marist poll is not a confidence builder for Donnelly.

  10. Redmen4ever says:

    Tennessee Senate Race:

    Marsha, Marsha
    We don’t need to escalate
    Antifa’s not the answer
    For only love can conquer hate
    You know we’ve got to find a way
    To bring some loving here today

    Media lies and deep state spies
    We all insist you don’t yell racist
    Talk to me, so you can see
    Oh, what’s going on
    What’s going on
    Ya, what’s going on
    Ah, what’s going on

  11. lisab says:

    For only love can conquer hate
    ————–

    i used to think that

    but then i read about

    ghengis khan

  12. mnw says:

    Just looked at Dave W playing with his kids over to the right. Dave is younger than I envisioned him.

  13. mnw says:

    lisab 13

    History is just a big roulette wheel, with no predictability whatsoever, imo. That’s why Zero’s bullizh*t about “the arc of progress” always makes me throw up.

  14. lisab says:

    well … just a life pro tip from history

    if ghengis sends you some diplomats

    do NOT kill them

    give them a good meal, take them to a show, maybe introduce them to a few of the show girls …

    trust me on this

  15. mnw says:

    I’ll bear that in mind. I never read much about his era.

    They have a good book discussion thread on Sundays at Ace of Spades blog– ace.mu.nu, I think. There’s a bit too much scifi there for my taste, but I can skip that– just like the troll posts here,

  16. Wes says:

    Messy says:
    September 9, 2018 at 7:43 am
    1026. No. Bernie was against Obama’s successful policies because he wanted Marxist planned economy, and the Republicans were against them because Obama was Black.

    It’s really that simple. Republican policies were the ones that crashed the world economy in 2008, remember. Some Republican commercials I’ve seen blame the ’08 meltdown on Obama and the Democrats, which is patently ridiculous.

    1) I guess Republicans must have opposed the government expansion under Woodrow Wilson, the New Deal, the Great Society, and Hillarycare because the Presidents at the time were black too.

    2) The 2008 meltdown occurred because of subprime loans—a proposal from Democrats. Bush just happened to be President when it happened. It literally would have been no different had Kerry beaten. By the way, this is a rare instance where I can give GWB something resembling praise. The Administration realized the dangers of the subprime loans and began working on proposals to counteract their effects. They stopped dealing with the subject when Barney Frank—whose boyfriend was in the secondary mortgage industry—began declaring them racist for expressing concerns over the issue.

    Thus, thank the bitchboy who had a lover in the industry for derailing attempts by the GWB Administration to deal with the subprime loan problem before the economy went into a tailspin.

  17. Wes says:

    Redmen4ever says:
    September 9, 2018 at 10:47 am
    Not only are people favoring limited government, the rule of law, the protection of property, and the role of social institutions such as family and church in the U.S. being described as racists, we’re starting to see this in Europe. Eventually, all thinkers of the right going back to Aristotle and Confucius will be described as such.

    Actually, calling people “racist” is just name-calling, like calling people “sh*thead” or “f*cked up.” It confuses self-righteousness with a lack of vocabulary.

    Sadly there are legitimate racists on the Right and Left, Redmen:

    Corey Stewart (R-VA) and Chris McDaniel (R-MS) come to mind for Republicans while Kathleen Blanco (D-LA) and Keith Ellison (D-MN) come to mind among Democrats.

  18. mnw says:

    Wes

    I agree about your subprime loan comment. Congress & the “Community Reinvestment Act” caused it. What could possibly go wrong with the govt mandating that lenders write mortgages for people who otherwise wouldn’t qualify?

    A lot. However, there was enough warning for cautious investors to GET OUT NOW!, if they wanted to.

  19. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    September 8, 2018 at 11:15 pm
    I was talking about leaders in the Senate and not Senate Majority Leader. Nice try, Wes. Are you really going to claim their no prominent and influential Senators before 1920?

    Typical Bitterlaw. Knows nothing about what he’s talking about and has to distort what others say to make his point.

    I understand you’re borderline illiterate, but let me explain this to you. When a person gives an opinion that someone holding a certain position is the worst in that position, the only way to counteract his argument is to point out another holder of the office.

    For example if I were to say Obama was the worst US President of the United States ever, it would make no sense to say, “I don’t know. Robert Mugabe is pretty bad. If I have to explain to you why, then you’re a bigger dumbass than I thought.

    Nonetheless this is exactly what you did by trying to pretend to be the smartest person despite your colossal ignorance of all things regarding American history. (I’m not even joking here. Every post of yours about American history is just painful to read because you literally don’t know a damn thing about the subject and have no problem making that apparent.) There were no Senate Majority Leaders in the antebellum period. Since only 21 men have ever held the position—all since 1920—the only way to counteract Author’s statement was to select another Senator who held the position and make the case for his being worse than Reid.

    Trying to counteract his argument by mentioning men who never had that role—or any official leadership role—in the Senate just revealed you as an ignorant dumbass or an illiterate moron—or both. Take your pick.

  20. Messy says:

    4. that would work.

    18. Wrong again. The Republicans pretty much supported Wilson’s policies. Those who didn’t didn’t want things like an eight-hour day, or a functioning 14th amendment and the like.

    It was Republicans who came up with the income tax and the Federal Reserve. Things were different back there.

    BTW. in the dirty thirties, Andrew Mellon was in >i>favor of a great depression. He famously said: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.”

    Also, FDR got 60% of the vote in 1936. The Great Depression was a BAD thing.

    As to the racist thing…The Birther movement, led by TRUMP, was indeed that.

  21. Wes says:

    The 16th Amendment and Federal Reserve predated Wilson. Therefore they were not, by definition, Wilson-era proposals. Why you’re arguing I was wrong by saying Republicans supported things that went into effect before Wilson took office I have no idea.

    As far as Andrew Mellon, he supported the Harding tax cuts and laissez faire economics before doing a 180 under Hoover and supporting government intervention in the economy. What that has to do with my point I can’t fathom.

    I also don’t understand the relevance of saying Roosevelt got 60% of the vote in 1936. I didn’t say anything about electoral results but only said Republicans opposes the New Deal. (Yes, I know not all Republicans opposed it, but as a general rule they opposed it.)

    Now onto the Birthers. They are a fringe group derided and discredited even by people on their end of the political spectrum. They have never been mainstream in the GOP other than with kooks such as infest Bejohngalt.com and were in no way a driving force behind GOP opposition to Obama.

    I’m other words, you created a smokescreen to bolster a ridiculous point no one not drinking leftist Kool-Aid even considers giving credence to.

  22. Bitterlaw says:

    Use s many words as you want, Wes. You still ignore what I meant. As for education, I will put my college and law degree up against your welder’s certificate any day.

    I know you need to feel superior to me for some reason. It makes sense. You can’t even get a stripper to settle for you and get married.

  23. Wes says:

    I do know what you meant, Bitter. Basically you were saying you’re an ignorant moron who had to make a counter argument by creating nonexistent holders of a political position in the only period of American history you have any clue about.

    I noticed you didn’t say you’d put your history degree against my equivalent degree in political science but actually had to demean my trade certification. Why exactly is that? Do people who can both weld and actually do research on the history of politics of this country without spouting nonsense and looking like uneducated fools make you feel inferior?

  24. DW says:

    Bitter, the Marist polls have a track record that speaks for itself. I posted this in the last thread and I will post it again here for the benefit of anyone spooked by these new Marist polls:

    Should NBC/Marist be trusted?

    Look at their track record for September compared to actual final results in November:

    2014 – NC Senate:

    Marist: Hagan 44 / Tillis 40
    Final: Tillis 49 / Hagan 47

    2014 – AR Senate

    Marist: Cotton 45 / Pryor 40
    Final: Cotton 57 / Pryor 39

    2014 – CO Senate

    Marist: Udall 48 / Gardner 42
    Final: Gardner 48 / Udall 46

    2014 – IA Senate

    Marist: Ernst 46 / Braley 44
    Final: Ernst 52 / Braley 44

    2014 – KS Senate

    Marist: Orman 48 / Roberts 38
    Final: Roberts 53 / Orman 43

    2014 – KY Senate

    Marist: McConnell 47 / Grimes 39
    Final: McConnell 56 / Grimes 41

    Thanks for playing.

  25. Wes says:

    Marist was off 6 in NC, 13 in AR, 8 in CO, 6 in IA, 20 (!) in KS, and 7 in KY, all in favor of the Dem or leftist. That’s just polling malpractice.

  26. DW says:

    Wes, yep, but predictably everyone jumps when they cry ‘wolf.’ I will wait until the actually get a track record of accuracy first.

  27. Wes says:

    Three times Marist picked the winner to lose out of these polls. How can anyone take them seriously?

  28. Bitterlaw says:

    Simple. I had a double Marjor in college – History and Government & Law. However, you knew that. As for political science and history being equivalent, what does that mean? They are separate degrees with some overlap.

    The day I feel inferior to an amoral predator of emotionally damaged women who can’t even marry a stripper will be a sad day indeed. I would also never have a 70s era p0rn mustache but I guess it works for you.

  29. jason says:

    Not watching football today.

    I have decided that watching a bunch of self entitled America haters disrespecting the flag in a league run by owners too afraid to stand up for the game and intent on making it a game for pussies and sissies is no longer for me.

    I am not encouraging any boycott. Those that are still interested in what pro football has become should continue to watch it. It’s a personal thing for me, not a movement thing.

  30. Wes says:

    Unless I miss my guess your history degree is a BS/BA just as my poli s I degree is. That would make them academically equivalent though I at least paid attention in class long enough to know Jefferson Davis was never Senate Majority Leader.

    As for my facial hair, I’ve had a full beard since January. It beats your looking like Phil Anselmo with a corn cob shoved up his ass.

  31. Messy says:

    If you watch the NFL you will see NO America haters. You will see patriots protesting those who would destroy this great nation on behalf of the flag.

  32. lisab says:

    bitterlaw said he is not jolly anymore

    lost 30 pounds!

  33. jason says:

    The Birther movement, led by TRUMP, was indeed that.”

    Actually, Messy is wrong even about this.

    I was never a fan of the Birther movement, but I am sure if Obama had been a white Marxist with questions as to where he was born, Trump would have gone after him too.

    The birther movement was ideological, not racist. The problem they saw with Obama was that he was a leftist, not that he was black.

    And I was all in favor of attacking him as a leftist moonbat, just not because of where he was born.

  34. Wes says:

    Messy found some good stuff to smoke today.

  35. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe you should have paid more attention. You would have learned that Senators that were mentioned in class were more influential and prominent than those who were not.

    Good sparring with you, Wes. I hope the hurricane spares you (and my niece at ECU.)

  36. lisab says:

    the nfl is dying

    never insult you customers

  37. DW says:

    I haven’t followed the NFL for 25 years or so. I only regret that I have but one life with which to stop watching the NFL.

  38. jason says:

    You will see patriots protesting”

    No, they are not patriots. Patriots respect the flag, the military and their country. And especially those that sacrificed for their country.

    If they wanted to “protest” there are a million ways to do it, but they picked the moment when the flag and the military are being honored, so the argument they are not “attacking the flag” is a baldfaced lie.

    These are despicable cowards who don’t deserve to live in the country that gave them so much.

  39. Bitterlaw says:

    The Birthers were truly unique in the history of morons. Obama’s birth announcement was in a Hawaiian newspaper. For the Birthers to have any credibility, they had to come up with an explanation for that. They could not. Oh yeah. He also had a birth certificate from Hawaii.

  40. Bitterlaw says:

    I will watch part of 4 NFL games today (switching back and forth between Steelers-Browns and Jags-Giants).

  41. Bitterlaw says:

    I wonder why Jay Cutler has not checked in today.

  42. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Gravis Marketing. in a just released poll, has Martha McSalley(R) with a one pt. lead in the Arizona Senate race against Sinema(D). Gov. Ducey is +5 in his re-election bid.

    http://orlando-politics.com/2018/09/09/gravis-marketing-2018-battleground-poll-arizona/

  43. DW says:

    Given that Gravis hasn’t been exactly showing strong GOP results in recent months, this is probably a good early sign.

  44. Wes says:

    That’s great to hear, Sheep. McSally needed to unite the GOP base after the primary. Barring her becoming a female George Allen, I expect her to beat Sinema by 3-6 points.

  45. Wes says:

    Going back to 2016, Gravis has generally been a pro-Trump pollster routinely showing all other Republicans than Trump not faring well electorally. For McSally to be ahead in one of their polls is noteworthy.

  46. Wes says:

    An RRHer recently said Republicans need to triage Arizona. I’m glad Cory Gardner didn’t listen.

  47. Bitterlaw says:

    Cleveland Browns…..

  48. Bitterlaw says:

    ….are going to OT.

  49. DW says:

    Some of those people at RRH are a mile wide and an inch deep.

  50. Bitterlaw says:

    OT is 10 minutes now.

  51. Cash Calf says:

    Moo?

  52. mnw says:

    1) DW & Wes

    Thanks for blowing Marist(D) out of the water. You proved what I thought I had remembered.

    2)Wes

    Suggestion #1: If someone who spells “disintegrates” with three iii’s posts that “Republicans voted against Obama’s economic plan because he’s black,” do you REALLY think you have to refute that? Wouldn’t a simple, “JAYSUS, you are an absolute idiot!” cover it?

    3) BL

    There IS such a thing as an autodidact, you know? We’ve been reading Wes’ posts for 10 years or so. They’re always thoughtful. Haven’t many of the biggest idiots you ever met been heavily credentialed?

    4) Wes

    Suggestion #2; Why not finish your degree at night, assuming BL has the facts straight? I believe you once said you were an East Carolina pirate?

  53. mnw says:

    Sheep 45

    AZ SEN poll:

    I think that poll is encouraging. This was supposed to be the DEMs’ easiest flip not long ago.

  54. Tina says:

    Regarding that Az poll, Schweikart claims that it is 5 points too low for Mcsalley. He sees it then at her leading by 6.

    The other day, he said Mcsalley is running a very effective ad campaign against Enema,

  55. Tina says:

    Her lead is noteworthy because it is her first lead against Enema and she is still consolidating Rs.

  56. Wes says:

    I finished my degree in 1999, Mnw. In addition to it, I have the aforementioned welding certificate (which I mainly use as a hobby) as well as licenses in both massage therapy and real estate. I’m 40 now, so I really have no interest in further schooling.

  57. mnw says:

    Schweikart is a retired professor who taught in AZ & still lives in AZ, right?

    McS ads have looked superdoublegood to me.

  58. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – No. I know many people who only finished high school who are morons. I know people with multiple degrees who have some pretty stupid ideas. (Most are Democrats.)

    I think there are times that Wes is thoughtful. There are also times when he is a douche who loves himself too much.. He came here last night and used a comment about Author to attack me out of nowhere. Fine.

    I trust Wes posts on North Carolina.

  59. mnw says:

    Wes

    OK, I was just going by BL’s post. I thought I remembered that differently.

  60. Bitterlaw says:

    Browns’ losing streak is over. Their tie streak has started.

  61. Tina says:

    Wes, do you still do Re? The market here is insane,

  62. Tina says:

    Yes, mnw. He resides in Az.

    I think he moved from Oh to Az about 2 years ago?

    He was for Ward, but is supporting Mcsalley, fwiw.

  63. mnw says:

    I do REITs!

  64. Wes says:

    Tina, McSally is an aggressive, smart pol who’s earned her stripes by winning on hostile ground twice. She’s a great candidate and, I think, the likely next Senator from AZ.

  65. mnw says:

    I hope the WH leans on Ward herself to endorse McS strongly. Shouldn’t be that difficult.

  66. Bitterlaw says:

    I think Wes is intelligent. He is also a self important douche. Both can be true.

  67. GF says:

    No word from Messy that it was one of Hillary’s goon lawyers that started the whole birther thing during the primaries in 2008 (perhaps around PA? I thought it in the Springtime).

    Not that some Dems questioned McCain’s legitimacy due to his birth in the Panama Canal Zone.

    Oh, before I forget, I’m not racist, Messy. GFY! I wouldn’t even want to see you next Tuesday, that’s how awful of a human being you are.

  68. Wes says:

    It’s a good field to be in for building interpersonal skills and making a lot of money over a short period of time, Tina. It’s best to have a field to fall back on and be frugal though in the field as the market can dry up in a given area almost without notice.

  69. mnw says:

    BL 70

    EVERY regular poster here has a pretty robust ego, from what I’ve seen.

    GF 71

    See 56(2) above.

  70. Wes says:

    Bitter, what did you expect after you felt the need to outright lie about what I said and say I was “weeping” for slavery when I said I thought Booth should have been hanged publicly for assassinating Lincoln and pointed out how Booth made Reconstruction far worse than it would have been had Lincoln lived?

  71. Bitterlaw says:

    I thought you might wait until a Civil War discussion came up. You are either Irish or a whiny little bitch with your simmering resentments that are triggered out of nowhere. You have been minimizing slavery’s evil for years. You called it a “wrong” in regard to the South.

  72. Wes says:

    This from the guy who’s silent on modern-day slavery.

    Whatever though, Bitter.

    I’ll make a deal with you. If you’ll admit you didn’t know what you were talking about in response to Author, I’ll call slavery evil.

  73. mnw says:

    I agree about Lincoln surviving. Johnson was far & away the worst President, imo. His term in office was a disaster for the country. I’ve been reading a book about Reconstruction, & Johnson was even worse than I thought.

    I profoundly disagree with Ann Coulter that now would be a good time to cut & run in Afghanistan, “in order to put those troops on the border.” Zero pulled the small residual force out of Iraq abruptly. Hello, ISIS.

  74. Wes says:

    To be fair, Mnw, ISIS was active in Iraq when Bush was President. It was his not doing anything about them or other terrorist groups for years that undermined US efforts in Iraq to the point where Americans were tired of the war and voted solidly against Republicans to get us out.

  75. Wes says:

    This from Mr. Triage Arizona on RRH:

    McSally may be benefiting from publicity from her easy victory in the GOP primary. But McSally is a good candidate who may be competitive with Sinema in a close race, despite Sinema being a Blue Dog; but let’s see other polls before jumping to conclusions.

    McSally “may be” competitive with Sinema as a Republican in a GOP state?

    Really?

    She’s a good candidate who was usually a few points down only during a fractured, contentious primary, but she only “may be” competitive with a Dem in a state no Dem has won a Senate seat in in 30 years according to him.

    What kind of analysis is this?

    Is he the chair of Sinema for Senate the New York Chapter?

  76. mnw says:

    In my view, we had a friendly, democratic popularly-elected govt in Iraq. It needed some additional time to consolidate. The U.S. residual force was small, inexpensive (comparatively,by the standards of maintaining troops overseas), & it was enough to accomplish its mission– training up the Iraqi army.

    So Zero pulled the residual force; the war in Syria expanded exponentially, & now we have Sadr in Iraq. Nice work, Zero. Of a piece with his fine JCPOA in Iran.

    The Taliban in Afghanistan controls about half the country, &/or denies the govt control of it. If Trump pulls the U.S. assistance force out of THERE, hello Al-Qaeda. Welcome back.

  77. mnw says:

    There isn’t much left to say about RRH that we haven’t already mentioned. The handful of Republicans at that “red state” site are about as outnumbered as the Alamo was.

    I think all of the “blue wave/GOP triage” talk is intended to 1) dry up GOP FR, & 2) discourage GOP voters from even bothering to vote.

  78. Kamala Harris gets LAPD protection:

    “Armed, plain-clothes LAPD officers were dispatched to California cities outside of Los Angeles at least a dozen times to provide security for U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris at public events, media appearances, and a party.

    LA taxpayers paid for airline tickets, hotel stays, car rentals, and meals, according to detailed expense reports obtained by NBC News. The total cost of the trips, not including the officers’ overtime, topped $28,000.”

  79. Wes says:

    Obama ran on getting us out of Iraq. Our presence there was unpopular from 2005 on. Keeping troops there was never a viable option once public opinion turned against the war. I personally agree with the consensus that we should never have been there. Regardless, once Bush let things get out of hand, there was no turning back. The surge came too late and never reversed the tide of public opinion.

    Maybe Bush should have read The Art of War rather than letting Rumsfeld mishandle things as badly as he did.

  80. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    80. “we had a friendly, democratic popularly-elected govt in Iraq.”

    The government in Iraq at the time was dominated by the Shia leaders, and was working closely with Iran. They were excluding the Sunnis and Kurds from the government. I agree that Obama made a bad mistake in pulling the U.S. troops out when he did. Bush was active in curbing the government’s excesses and trying to make the best of an impossible situation.

    Iraq is a fake country, its borders were drawn up arbitrarily by Western Powers. The Shia, Sunni and Kurds will always bitterly loath each other. It will never be a functional democracy. No amount of U.S. pretending will turn it into one.

    As far as Afghanistan, few doubt that if the U.S. left the Taliban would be in control in Kabul in a matter of days. We have been in Afghanistan for almost 19 years. If we stay 19 more years, it likely will be the same situation.

    I am all for building strong relationships and providing military aid to populations in the Mideast who support us — such as the Kurds, Northern Alliance, Uzbeks, etc. But this nation building nonsense has not, and will not, work.

  81. ReadyFirst says:

    67. mnw, lol, public or private?

  82. Bitterlaw says:

    I’ll make a deal with you. If you’ll admit you didn’t know what you were talking about in response to Author, I’ll call slavery evil.

    NO DEAL. Why would I make a deal with somebody who needs to get something in order to call slavery evil?

    As for Lincoln, his plan on being merciful towards the South was the low point of his Presidency. The allegedly harsh Reconstruction that followed his assassination was a joke. It let the South off easy. GFY, Wes. But be safe in the hurricane.

  83. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    During Obama’s presidency the Shia Iraqi government (Maliki) was trying to purge the Sunni groups who were part of the Sunni Awakening Movement, which were strong supporters of U.S. troops fighting Al Qaida. Many were arrested. Obama, unlike Bush, did not protect them. This, and the U.S. withdraw, opened the door for ISIS to come into the Sunni areas. The brutal tragedy that resulted can be laid directly at Obama’s feet.

    When Obama subsequently, backed off his “line in the sand” against Assad; the world saw that Obama was a weak pacifist, and could be taken advantage of easily. Putin did so in the Ukraine and Crimea.

  84. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey – L’shinah tovah.

    The rest of you get your Happy New Year on January 1st.

  85. ReadyFirst says:

    34. “You see no America haters…” – Funny, that’s all I see when a player takes a knee during the anthem. It’s like being spit at. Then I see idiots like you and in the media making excuses for those players.
    The reason I still watch is because I prefer to focus on the vast majority of players who do still respect the anthem, and have a sense of decency. Football teaches leadership and numerous life skills to players of all ages. It’s a pillar of Americanism I don’t want to see the left destroy, as we would all be the worse for it.

  86. Wes says:

    I knew it. Bitterlaw—who has never expressed any problems with modern slavery—just wants the issue. He’s too proud to admit his ignorance, so he can’t bring himself to do what he needs to do to elicit the response he wants.

    I almost typed a comment saying I knew you would be too pigheaded to take me up on my offer. I didn’t do it because I didn’t want to give you any excuses to do as you did.

    You’re far too ignorant and predictable, Bitter.

  87. Redmen4ever says:

    People who opposed us invading Iraq: Ron Paul, Barack Obama and Donald Trump

    People who supported us invading Iraq: G.W. Bush, John McCain, John Kerry and Hillary Clinton

    People who weren’t aware we invaded Iraq: JEB!

  88. Wes says:

    In one breath, Bitterlaw exposes his anti-Southern bigotry and support for the rape, pillage, and murder, saying Reconstruction “let the South off easy.”

    This is the same guy who calls me an amoral predator.

    Projection much, Bitter?

  89. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes just lies. I have repeatedly condemned modern slavery. I also refuse to give the Democrat Senators who supported slavery and treason a free pass. They did not hold the title Senate Majority Leader but they certainly did more damage to the country than Harry Reid.

  90. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes is like the Southerners who claim that Sherman burned their ancestors home even when confronted with the fact that Sherman’s army did not come within 200 miles of that land.

    Wes thinks Reconstruction was too harsh? Never a word to say that slavery was too harsh. All you need to know about Wes.

    Wes is just mad that his beloved Confederates had to wait until the troops left to start treating blacks like dirt again.

  91. Bitterlaw says:

    Even though it is a Carolina home game, it sounds like 1/2 the crowd are Cowboys fans.

  92. Bitterlaw says:

    You are an amoral predator of emotionally damaged women, Wes.

  93. Tina says:

    The R party id advantage in Az is about 145000. It has increased since 2016.

    Enema was tagged by the pink tutu ad.

  94. mnw says:

    RF 85

    Public. At the moment: STAG; ABR; LADR & HASI; with KIM on the watchlist. Until recently KW, which I thought might be fully valued.

    Do you hold individual REITs?

  95. mnw says:

    BL

    Lincoln & Reconstruction:

    His genius was that his views constantly evolved. He would’ve hardly liked the Black Codes enacted in late 1865-66, & I believe he wouldn’t have tolerated the reconstructed state govts which enacted them.

    If you evaluated Lincoln in mid-1862, you could have said he was “squishy soft” on slavery itself, too. Times change; people change. No-one could adapt more nimbly than Lincoln.

  96. mnw says:

    Tina 97

    I think so too. If there is a blue wave, she may be one of those ‘sole survivor’ types, like Corker was.

  97. Bitterlaw says:

    Giants lose. Cowboys lose. Even though the Redski s won, it was a good day for this Eagles fan.

  98. Wes says:

    Actually, Bitter, I’ve never been an apologist for slavery. Unlike you, I also have a problem with it in the modern day, not just in the former Confederacy. Also, integrating the South back into the Union as Lincoln planned would have worked better for former slaves since he advocated against antagonizing Southerners not directly linked to the former Confederate government.

    By following a moderate path, he planned to modernize the South and ensure blacks would have a voice in the new state governments. When Booth assassinated him, that fell apart. The Radical Republicans took over and brutalized the South, leading to efforts by white Southerners to disenfranchise blacks and commit heinous crimes against them so as to ensure all-white governments would remain in power all into the 20th Century.

    Congratulations, Bitter. Your bloodthirsty heroes got their way and set Southern blacks back by a century with their shortsighted brutality that caused radical white Southerners to have an ability they wouldn’t otherwise have had to demagogue and purge moderate whites and blacks from any voice in government.

    Was it worth it when Lincoln himself—who, being President, probably knew a bit more than you about how to handle the aftermath of a victory—felt there was a better way to handle things?

  99. Mr.Vito says:

    Lincoln didnt have a degree.

    What an imbecile…

  100. ReadyFirst says:

    Not exactly mnw. I’m a CFP in my day job, which is why you probably won’t hear me talking investments much here, for liability reasons. I have clients that own both type REITs, but I will say, after the 2000s, it’s hard to find a lot of good reasons to own private.

  101. mnw says:

    Wes

    I suggest your view of Lincoln’s Reconstruction plans is FAR too static.

    Also, the reconstructed states did a great deal to draw Radical Reconstruction down upon themselves. It was insane to blithely go along thinking that the victorious North, having suffered 300000 casualties. would ignore the re-imposition of slavery under another name, i.e., the Black Codes.

  102. Wes says:

    Mnw, Bitterlaw is a prime example of what a college professor of mine called “presentitus”—that is, a reflexive tendency to judge past people and events based on our own current standards.

    Lincoln knew he had won the war and wanted to integrate the South as quickly and painlessly back into the Union as possible so as to allay tensions among all the people affected by the war and ensure stable local governments that would protect the rights of all citizens.

    The Radical Republicans didn’t like this and instituted policies that worsened the situation for all involved. When Reconstruction ended, blacks bore the brunt of wholite Southerners’ rage at the vengeance-driven policies enacted during Reconstruction. Blacks were in almost as bad a position after 1877 as they were in during slavery.

    Bitterlaw is perfectly fine with that because of his seething anti-Southern bigotry.

  103. Bitterlaw says:

    Why do you support pedophilia, Wes? You never condemn it.

    Your tears for the allegedly brutaluzed South don’t impress me.

  104. mnw says:

    RF

    Do you use/read the Seeking Alpha website? I’ve always preferred to make my own mistakes. At least it’s free. As a retiree, I like REITs for their yield…duh.

  105. Wes says:

    The Black Codes came about under Johnson. Lincoln envisioned a coalition of blacks and moderate whites who would have prevented that. Johnson should have prevented their implementation. The Radical Republicans has planned a harsh Reconstruction before that though.

    The South was not blameless in the events leading up to or during Reconstruction, but once the Republicans fell under the influence of Thaddeus Stevens, things became much worse for all involved than would have been the case had Lincoln been able to prop up less onerous Southern governments than came into power.

  106. Bitterlaw says:

    When Reconstruction ended, blacks bore the brunt of whlite Southerners’ rage at the vengeance-driven policies enacted during Reconstruction. Blacks were in almost as bad a position after 1877 as they were in during slavery BECAUSE THE SAME EVIL RACIST SCUM THAAT USED TO OWN THEM WERE STILL RUNNING THEIR STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.

    I fixed it for Wes.

  107. Wes says:

    Actually you’re a liar, Bitter. I have condemned pedophilia on here on the rare occasions when it’s come up because of some scumbag’s predation on minors.

    You, however, criticize only dead Southerners for slavery and never once even try to condemn modern-day slavery.

    You do that because you’re an anti-Southern bigot who wants to use a heinous act to bash people you don’t like while being silent on equally appalling crimes committed by people you have no problem with in your own time.

  108. mnw says:

    Wes 106

    Many historians call it “presentism” now, & it’s the worst thing you can say about a professional historian.Kind of like calling a doctor a quack. Presentism is standard procedure for all the leftists tearing down statues.

    I’m afraid my view of Reconstruction, both Presidential & Radical, doesn’t coincide with yours.

    Lincoln’s “10% Reconstruction plan”* was a TACTIC, though, not a bedrock belief.

    * in a nutshell, Lincoln’s “10% plan” provided that southern states could seek readmission to the Union upon a free vote which included at least 10% of the number of voters in the last pre-war election. I don’t think I explained that very well, but it conveys the basics of it.

  109. Bitterlaw says:

    GFY, Wes. I have condemned modern slavery and you know it. Others here know it, too.

  110. Wes says:

    Yet those people would not have been in power had Lincoln been able to fully implement his vision of Reconstruction and help establish governments that wouldn’t have been amenable to Jim Crow and other disastrous policies, Bitter.

    It all comes back to the shortsighted vision of Reconstruction promulgated by Thaddeus Stevens and others that let racist white Southerners demagogue moderate whites and blacks and gain popular support in the South.

    For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Lincoln’s approach would have yielded a different result by not making white Southern voters receptive to their own radicals.

    You’re too ignorant and shortsighted to see that though.

  111. mnw says:

    We ARE talking about great issues of 150 years ago! It’s fascinating to see how much passion these things still generate.

    lisab & I managed to engage in argument over Petain, though. A hot issue in 1944-45, so I understand.

  112. Cash Calf says:

    Moo!

  113. Wes says:

    I want to see one post by you condemning it, Bitter. You’ve posted enough about the issue on here it should not be too hard to find just one condemning modern slavery.

    Actually it will because you know as well as I that post doesn’t exist.

  114. Bitterlaw says:

    I understand that Confederates did not view themselves as evil. Good for them. If we are not allowed to judge them why study them at all? There would be no lesson to be learned from past mistakes or successes. Using Wes’ logic, Stalin was not a monster. He was just a man of his time.

  115. ReadyFirst says:

    I catch their articles a lot, good site. Sounds like you do a lot of good research. Bet you’ve been having a good year.

  116. mnw says:

    Wes 114

    Again, you are treating Lincoln’s position when he died in April, 1865 as if that would have been his fixed & permanent position! Lincoln would likely have taken exactly the same view of the Black Codes, and white terror, as Stevens & Sumner did, I believe.

    I think you FAR underestimate Lincoln’s desire to work with his Party in Congress, & that meant the Radicals, in large part.

  117. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes – You make the same accusation every time this argument comes up and every time I remind you that I have condemned modern slavery. Every time. I’m not doiny your homework. Maybe our Archive master, lisab can hunt for the many prior posts on the subject.

  118. Bitterlaw says:

    racist white Southerners

    Finally. Baby steps, Wes. Baby steps.

  119. Bitterlaw says:

    I have to watch the rest of Fear the Walking Dead from Last week and this week’s episode. Lie away, Wes. You probably have nothing better to do until Tink finishes her shift.

  120. Wes says:

    We can never know, Mnw, but what we do know is that Lincoln openly opposed what the Radical Republicans wanted to do during Reconstruction. We do know Lincoln had a different view of what to do from theirs.

    I can only judge the man based on what I objectively know about him. That doesn’t lead me to the conclusion that he would have adopted a significantly different policy from what he advocated.

  121. mnw says:

    RF 119

    I like to think I do a lot of research, but it’s not very sophisticated. I tend to follow analysts I like, & give them a try. If that doesn’t work, I find somebody else.

    It’s been a good year so far, I think. Since I hold all my stuff in IRAs, I just look at very simple metrics. I’ve always thought I was a little better at investing than at controlling expenditures.

    I try to get my HS-aged kids interested in managing money, because it really concerns them now more than me no… but I might as well try to explain transubstantiation to a cat.

    I recently saw the Maritz Corp sales incentive brochure for Edward Jones employees: “sell this much & you get a luxury trip to Tahiti for four” kind of thing. I want NO part of that! At least if I do it myself, I don’t have to worry whether my interests and the broker’s interests are really aligned.

  122. Wes says:

    You always say you’ve condemned modern slavery but never provide actual proof of your condemnation. That’s telling.

  123. Bitterlaw says:

    Reread 121 until it jogs your memory. We have had this fight many times.

  124. mnw says:

    Wes 124

    Were Lincoln’s policies toward slavery itself the same from 1858 (Lincoln Douglas debates) until his death? Not even remotely.

    Based on his career, I think it’s obvious his views on Presidential Reconstruction would have changed, & VERY soon! Surely you don’t think he would have observed the creation of the Black Codes, & said, “Well, I have a plan in place now, so there’s nothing I can do about it. We’ll just have to tolerate the re-imposition of slavery under a new name. At least we got the name changed.”

    If you think that, at least be aware that no reputable historian, at least that I ever heard of, agrees with you. You want inflexible, look no further than Andrew Johnson. Lincoln always had a VERY solicitous relationship with the Republicans in Congress. I don’t see Lincoln getting into a situation where he avoided impeachment by one vote. In addition to his many other abilities, he was an excellent political strategist.

  125. mnw says:

    A few exceptional post-war Southern political leaders warned their Southern peers that the North would never tolerate the Black Codes (and all the other stuff associated with the Codes), & that the path they were on would result in a tremendous reaction against the South.

  126. ReadyFirst says:

    125. Surprised to hear that about the EJ guys. Most of that sales stuff is completely frowned or even has rules against these days. It’s why I went independent many years ago. Sounds like we’re at the same stage of life. I’ve got two in college now.

  127. ReadyFirst says:

    Quite possibly the worst first half of a football game I’ve ever seen.

  128. Redmen4ever says:

    Reconstruction – as part of the resolution of the controversial election of 1876, the Union (i.e., the North) withdrew from the South. This left the emancipated slaves and their white allies at the mercy of the ex-Confederates. The plan has been to train national guards in the Southern states, but they were not able to stand up to the ex-Confederates. In Mississippi, a “black and tan” force broke and ran. In New Orleans, a force consisting of police and guardsmen, under the command of Longstreet, was defeated. In such manner, the ex-Confederates took control of Southern governments and through law backed-up by terrorism reduced the blacks of the South to something like serfs.

    Fast forward to Iraq: It was thought that we could raise up and train an Iraqi army to defend the reorganized and democratic government. That force failed time and again to stand up in battle. We would have had to commit to something like 30 to 50 years of occupation, before democratic values could be supported by a national army. The example are South Korea and Taiwan, which remained military dictatorships for decades before democracy took root. Iraq was never going to be a walk in the park. The neo-cons were always wrong.

    Now consider Afghanistan. Does anybody still think the U.S. is able to turn that place into a functioning democracy? At least the Big O opposed us going into Iraq. Where did he get the idea that we could achieve in Afghanistan what we failed to achieve in Iraq?

    Probably from the same place he got the idea we could improve Syria and Libya by supporting the overthrow of dictators in those place. I.E., Hillary “the smartest woman on the planet” Clinton.

  129. mnw says:

    RF 130

    RE: EJ guys:

    I swear to God! The daughter of a friend of mine designed the beautiful Maritz brochure for EJ. That’s how I happened to see it. Her dad was showing off his daughter’s beautiful work, & it WAS beautiful. I was impressed by the quality of the brochure… & horrified by the contents. I think this is called “unintended consequences.”

    I saw that EJ brochure less than 4 months ago. It is NOT a quaint historical artifact! It;’s something they’re doing right now.

  130. mnw says:

    All EJ wants to do is sell a customer one of their “plans,” btw. They have several “plans,” and one of them will fit EVERYBODY.

    Their “plans” creep me out.

  131. Tgca says:

    I’ll just say that as someone who lived and traveled in the south, I really don’t think in this day and age they are anymore bigoted than folks in the northeast and west coast. It’s just in the northeast and west coast cities they hide their bigotry much more due to PC or they have acceptable bigotry such as religious folks and southerners. For example, San Francisco, is one of the most segregated cities I ever lived, worked, or visited. Of course, many there did not see it that way. The open hatred of many there for those that don’t conform to their views is bigotry because it’s usually directed at certain groups.

    A bigot is a bigot is a bigot!

    I hope I have helped in this debate by bestowing great wisdom for y’all to ponder.

    Now y’all have yourself a good night.

  132. ReadyFirst says:

    Me too. My perception of them is there seems to be a lot of one size fits all. They seem to be very individual bond oriented. Not that that’s good or bad, but it can’t be for everyone.

  133. GF says:

    Forgive my ignorance, but what are we referencing with “modern slavery?” Are we talking prostitution, trafficking and the like?

  134. lisab says:

    Maybe our Archive master, lisab can hunt for the many prior posts on the subject.
    ———————-

    since i generally ignore those posts,

    you would have to help me narrow down the time frame.

  135. Tgca says:

    137 GF

    I think they’re referring to Corporate America. I can attest there’s modern day slavery there. 🙂

  136. lisab says:

    lisab & I managed to engage in argument over Petain, though.
    ——————-

    not much of an argument

    all i know about petain is what i posted, based on the article i quoted.

    you can disagree of course, but unless one of us has the desire to do more research on him, the argument is over

  137. jason says:

    I hear the Bears still suck.

  138. mnw says:

    lisab

    No offense. I already said it was over the other day, as far as I was concerned. I have no intention of doing more research.

    Do you have a particular book to recommend about Genghis Khan?

  139. Mr.Vito says:

    According to the left, the NFL is modern day slavery…

    and Bitter supports it.

    DUN DUNN DUNNNNNNN!

  140. lisab says:

    mnw,

    one of the easiest and best portfolios in the long run has proven to be also very simple

    20% growth stocks
    20% blue chips
    20% corporate bonds
    20% international stocks
    20% real estate

    you could shade up or down on various items and add treasuries or gold or even things like art

    but the basic idea has been to keep it simple and has proven very successful

    the central message being to not try to guess the market, just invest in a broad based portfolio

  141. lisab says:

    No offense. I already said it was over the other day
    ————–

    i was agreeing with you not restarting.

    no, i have no suggestions on ghengis khan.

    although i have studied a lot of history, mostly it is from textbooks not any particular biographies

    The Story of Civilization, by william and ariel durant is good, but i have only read chapters, not the whole thing … it is 11 volumes!

  142. lisab says:

    “a distant mirror”, by barbara tuchman, is also very good, if you like history books.

    it is easy to read history

  143. mnw says:

    lisab 144

    Well… I have my own views, & I’ve been an active trader for 20 or so years.* A formulaic allocation is not how I roll. It’s all just a matter of taste & personality.

    What book do you like on Genghis Khan? I like to read about historical eras where I know almost nothing.

    A 100% true anecdote: For a while, I used to do day trades because I was bored at work. I had a standard amount that I “bet” each day, an amount that I considered risk tolerable. Unlike you, I’m not good at math. One day I had an awful hangover when I made my standard bet, & 30 minutes later…I was stunned to see that I’d lost a lot of money! Did the damn thing go BANKRUPT? WTF is going on? Turned out, I messed up the decimal point, & bought 10x my standard bet– on some Chinese company I knew very little about. Needless to say, I did no more work that day. Just constantly hit the refresh button, like a rat on a food treadmill. By COB, I had lost for sure, but it was survivable. I certainly avoided being bored.

  144. mnw says:

    I read “A Distant Mirror,” & most of her other books, I think.

  145. ReadyFirst says:

    Argh, Can’t believe my cable went out for the second half of that game!!!!

  146. ReadyFirst says:

    Lisa, in its simplest terms, what you just described (only a lot more complex) is also known as The Modern Portfolio Theory. It won a nobel prize in economics in 1990. Developed by Dr Harry Markowitz it’s better known in the investment world now as Asset Allocation.

  147. ReadyFirst says:

    Lisab, Years ago, I posted here. It was only a handful of times, but I seem to remember you and Polaris getting into some pretty deep math and statistical discussions. As I remember, you more than held your own.

  148. lisab says:

    “Well… I have my own views, & I’ve been an active trader for 20 or so years.”
    ———————

    i was thinking more in terms of teaching your children.

    “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is an easy lesson, and has made almost 20% a year for the last 30 years …

    however, i am all for day traders, i just prefer the nice broad based mutual funds

  149. lisab says:

    Lisa, in its simplest terms, what you just described (only a lot more complex) is also known as The Modern Portfolio Theory.
    ——————————————

    it is related actually — but not exactly from markowitz, although i understand why you may think so. markowitz did indeed come up with modern portfolio theory (mpt).

    for those who don’t know, mpt was concerned with the idea that you could get the same return with less risk through diversification.

    the idea of splitting your assets into the five broad groups above built off of markowitz and was talked about in “a random walk down wall street”, which talks about markowitz

    but “a random walk down wall street” actually mentions the above portfolio, which has a name i cannot remember. it was based off of markowitz’s work, trying to invest in items that are not highly correlated.

    that portfolio, has outperformed most professionally run mutual funds.

    (i used to work for state street bank — a wall street bank custodian, i.e. they handle a huge percentage of the wall street transactions. i was only a mail girl (17 y.o.) but they still trained us in what the business was).

  150. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Always found it an interesting coincidence that slavery was abolished at the time the Industrial Revolution took place. Machines became society’s mechanical slaves. Prior to that for thousands of years: Greece, Rome, China, India, Spanish and
    British America — every society had slaves. But once they were no longer necessary, people suddenly realized the practice was immoral. The hypocrisy in human nature never changes.

    And lets not forget that many of those staunch abolitionist New Englanders were from families who made their money bringing slaves over from Africa to the Caribbean and the South. It was an economic mainstay of the Boston maritime industry.

    Saying that, admire the anti-slavery advocacy of people like Emerson and Thoreau. But they would have been ignored if economics had not made slavery redundant.

  151. lisab says:

    Lisab, Years ago, I posted here. It was only a handful of times, but I seem to remember you and Polaris getting into some pretty deep math and statistical discussions. As I remember, you more than held your own.
    —————————-

    teachers in many states have to get masters degrees — or at least it gets you a raise. this includes illinois, ny and ma.

    you can get it in many areas, my area was quantitative measurement (a.k.a. standardized testing). basically, i have taken about 20 empirical statistics courses over the years …

    polaris is a scientist, he could kick my butt in calculus, but i had the advantage in statistics.

    however, unfortunately/fortunately almost all of my work has been in elementary and/or special education, not testing.

  152. lisab says:

    i did attempt to take a few courses in theoretical statistics (remember i was empirical statistics)

    in the first course i took, the final had 6 questions. i skipped the first one, because it just looked difficult. i did the other five questions with no problem and then went back to tackle the first one … it was on the “moments” of some problem … in fifteen parts … all calculus … with each part requiring the answer from the part before. by the end, because i figured i had made a mistake somewhere along the line, i was saying … “ok, take the correct answer from part L.) and put it into this formula … which according to my anser on part L.) is equal to “$&%$&”. it was a nightmare.

    then i signed up for the follow-on stats class, and on the first day, in the first few minutes, the teacher asked, “what is the integral of the arctangent, you should know this off the top of your head”

    i dropped the next day.

  153. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw, wes and DW
    So the 538/Siena Poll comes up with a doozy over the weekend in the MN CD-3 contest. It shows incumbent Eric Paulsen(R) behind by 9 pts.
    Why you ask? The Party Identification is D+17 in a district that is R+2. In fact, Paulsen holds about 95% of the GOP vote in the poll.
    As you may surmise, the jerks at Red Racing Horses, led by BoehnerWasRight, is all doom and gloom and wants the seat written off.
    Where is StrawDog when we need him to respond?

  154. Wes says:

    I’ve never been a fan of the surrender monkeys at RRH, Sheep. They declare all bad news for Republicans iron clad and go out of their way to dismiss good news. They remind me of MD in 2014 and 2016.

    There are going to be bad years for the GOP. 2006 and 2008 were two of them. Back then some of us on here were derided for acknowledging that. I even had the nickname White Flag Wes because I wasn’t offering any solace to Republicans who actually thought McCain would win in the latter year.

    The thing is not to actively court pessimism and eeyore literally everything. The RRH “Republicans” do that. Some, I suspect, just have naturally pessimistic natures. Most of the eeyores though read like Dems actively trying to suppress GOP votes.

    Take Mr. Triage Arizona himself (Manhattan Libertarian) as an example of the latter group.

  155. DW says:

    More house polls:

    WV_03 – Siena

    Ojeda (D) 41%
    Miller (R) 47%

    This one is rated tossup to Lean R.

    GA_06 – 39th street strategies

    McBath (D) 47%
    Handel (R) 49%

    This one is ranked lean to likely R

    ID_01 – Dan Jones

    McNeil (D) 27%
    Fulcher (R) 35%

    ID_02 – Dan Jones

    Swisher (D) 23%
    Simpson (R) 59%

    MN_08 – Siena

    Radinovich (D) 44%
    Stauber (R) 43%

    This one is tossup

  156. Toast says:

    Morning always makes me nervous.

  157. Redmen4ever says:

    per 7/25/18 FEC:

    Eric Paulsen has $2.7 million on hand; Dean Phillips $800,000.

    Who’s going to tell Congressman Paulsen that he is supposed to write himself off and disburse his campaign funds among other candidates?

  158. DW says:

    And don’t anyone forget that Siena has some major issues going on. They had those two primary polls in NY (where they are supposed to be experts) and not only got the winners wrong, but were off ridiculously. I will get the numbers again and post them in a moment. To write off Paulsen over a Siena poll is beyond dumb.

  159. DW says:

    NY_11 – GOP Primary:

    Siena:

    Dan Donovan (R-Inc) 37
    Michael Grimm (Ex-Con) 47

    ACTUAL RESULTS:

    Dan Donovan (R-Inc) 63
    Michael Grimm (Ex-Con) 37

    NY_24 – Democratic Primary

    Siena:

    Juanita Perez Williams (D) 45
    Dana Balter 32

    ACTUAL RESULTS:

    Juanita Perez Williams (D) 38
    Dana Balter 62

    This is not just off a little, this is not just polling malpractice, this is so horribly off they should get a 538 F rating and be laughed at like Zogby.

    If they don’t have any fallout from this then someone needs to apologize to Research 2000 and Strategic Vision.

  160. Toast says:

    I like to jam with Jelly.

  161. DW says:

    Another Dem Internal poll done by Democracy Corpse:

    FL_06

    Soderberg (D) 46%
    Waltz (R) 47%

    Its ranked as Likely R, but again, its a Dem internal, so who knows how many days or weeks they had to wait to get one that shows its close.

  162. Corree says:

    Bears blew 20 pt lead. Heartbreaking.

    That is why I miss Jay Cutler. We would never have had a 20 pt lead to blow.

  163. mnw says:

    lisab

    I can’t teach my children squat! They’re into athletics and video games. We generally interact when they need a ride or money… & they’re about to get their DLs.

  164. DW says:

    Emerson:

    IA_01: Ranked from Tossup to Lean D

    Abby Finkenhauer (D) 43%
    Rod Blum (R) 38%
    Undecided 12%

    IA_02: Safe D

    Dave Lobesack (D) 45%
    Christopher Peters (R) 21%

    IA_03: Ranked Tossup

    David Young (R) 47%
    Cindy Axne (D) 31%

    IA_04: Ranked Likely to Safe R

    Steve King (R) 41%
    J.D. Scholten (D) 31%

  165. DW says:

    Obviously IA_03 poll by Emerson is the big one there….not polled at tossup.

  166. mnw says:

    DW & Wes

    You guys do really good work.

    I have an even lower opinion of The Wise Men than Wes does. Conventional Republicans of any flavor would not recognize that place as a “red state” site.

    Manhattanlibertarian is one of the bigger adzclowns. He recently informed me in no uncertain terms that IL-12 was a tossup, the PPP(D) poll showing Bost (R-inc) up by 5 points notwithstanding. He based that on a live Siena/NYT poll in progress. I responded by just flat-out predicting that Most would survive– even though that is my hunch, & I’m only 55% confident about it. I’ve been posting over there for maybe a year, & I haven’t been banned yet– like I was once before. So I have to be wery, wery* careful not to go off on any of them. MAN, they are smug little pr*ks.

  167. DW says:

    Those Emerson polls had a sample size of around 250 for each of those four congressional districts, just as a caveat.

  168. Tina says:

    There is trouble in liberal land.

    Moore took away Camera Hoggs mic after Hogg indicated that Canadians should interfere in our elections.

    More Hogg!

  169. mnw says:

    Emerson on AL SEN special, 48 hours before the polls opened:

    “At this point, Doug Jones (D) has no realistic path to victory.”

    538 grades Emerson at “C” (the last time I looked), & that’s way too generous, imo.

    Try to mention “Selzer” at RRH & prepare to be swarmed.

  170. J. Cutler says:

    That is why I miss Jay Cutler. We would never have had a 20 pt lead to blow.

    Not nice!!!!!

  171. DW says:

    Emerson now ranked B+ at 538. They probably went up because of the botched Alabama election

  172. ReadyFirst says:

    155. Lisab, well that helps partly explain why you’re still here at the polling site and he’s not. My fiancée works with special needs and head start kids, now as a teachers coach in the school system. Bless you, that takes a special type of person.

  173. Wes says:

    Ah, Polaris.

    He was absolutely certain all polls were wrong in 2008 and 2012. When the polls turned out to be right he blamed conservative voters for not turning out.

    Good times.

  174. Wes says:

    Who had the worst predictions in 2008–Rdelbov with the Delbov Curve or Polaris with his poll reweighting?

  175. mnw says:

    lisab

    I second what RF said. Everything in your post 155 was news to me.

    HHR has an interesting mix of posters here. (I always exclude the trolls).

    Polaris suffered yugely from confirmation bias.

  176. Redmen4ever says:

    Emerson Iowa Poll

    Finds Trump well below water … but recent Roto-Reuters and Morning Insult state JA numbers are fair to middling.

    In the I told you so category: WV-03.

  177. ReadyFirst says:

    179. Wes, def Polaris. I understood his reasoning, he was just way off. He did help educate a lot on polling bias though. Unfortunately, he did it by inserting his own bias.

  178. SWAG Polling says:

    You can always trust SWAG Polling. Our name says it all.

  179. Bitterlaw says:

    My favorite polling suggestion at HHR was to ignore polls conducted over the weekend because conservatives were attending school football games and only liberals were home to answer the phone.

  180. mnw says:

    48/51 today.

    For the month of August, it was 49.

    So Emerson sez Trump’s JA is well under water in IA? And Ann Selzer says the GCB nationally is DEMs +2?

    Hmmm. Both can NOT be twue. Which one is likelier tp be right? If this was a TV game show, I could win a trip to Hawaii!

  181. GPO says:

    Bitterlaw says:

    September 10, 2018 at 12:41 pm

    My favorite polling suggestion at HHR was to ignore polls conducted over the weekend because conservatives were attending school football games and only liberals were home to answer the phone.

    lolololol

  182. mnw says:

    WSJ: “A Senate Barnburner In ND”

    The only burning barn there belongs to Heidi. (WSJ hates Trump almost as much as the rest of them, BUT…it can’t afford to report fake economic news.)

  183. mnw says:

    184 & 186

    Pollsters DO report that it’s a lot more difficult now to get self-identified Republicans to answer poll questions. Lot more GOP voters hangup instantly than they used to.

  184. lisab says:

    I second what RF said. Everything in your post 155 was news to me.
    ———————

    that is why i tend to laugh at the people who say,

    “it is IMPOSSIBLE for so and so to win”,

    and one of the reasons i was pretty silent on trump through the primaries and the general (the other being md and others attacking anyone who did not agree with them)

    usually things are just highly unlikely, not impossible. for example, “it is IMPOSSIBLE for the titanic to sink, or if it did, it would take hours and the passengers would be rescued by another passing ship … it is one of the most travelled shipping lanes in the world”

    unless of course you scrape the whole side of your ship with a giant iceberg, and it is the middle of the night, and most ships have stopped for the night because of iceberg warnings, and you insult the radio operator of the nearest ship so that he goes to bed …

    in statistics we say, “outliers happen”, or … “there are no outliers”

    now … the chances of the gop gaining seats in the house is highly highly unlikely, even holding the house seems like at best a 1 in 5 chance to me

    but … if something crazy were to happen, like if maxine waters were to say, “impeachment, impeachment, impeachment, impeachment, impeachment, impeachment, impeachment!”, on camera …

    the gop’s chances of holding the house would probably go up …

    but that probably won’t happen, she is not that stupid

  185. Poul Harris says:

    He was absolutely certain all polls were wrong in 2008 and 2012. When the polls turned out to be right he blamed conservative voters for not turning out”

    Voters suck.

    I WAS right, they WERE wrong. If they had been right I would have nailed everything.

    – Poul Harris

  186. mnw says:

    lisab

    This is sort of related to “no outliers.” As an investor, I don’t CARE what the median view of the experts is.

    I CARE about the advice of an investment advisor that I KNOW, from personal experience (not from testimonials), has been right more often than not in the past. My guru of choice is frequently “an outlier.”

    In polling, my guru of choice is Selzer and Company, & they are frequently characterized as “an outlier” at RRH. I’ll concede the blue wave if & when Selzer can detect it.

  187. Poul Harris says:

    I identify with Bunu, when he said Ron and Rand Paul wouldn’t have lost like 170 primaries and caucuses in a row if it weren’t for the voters.

    I think if only Paulbots were allowed to vote, they would have been 170/170.

    And if voters voted they way they should vote, I would never be wrong.

    This is what I see from 30,000 ft.

    – Poul Harris

  188. jason says:

    Hey Bitter, are you at the BMW Championship? Going to be a good finish…

  189. lisab says:

    This is sort of related to “no outliers.” As an investor, I don’t CARE what the median view of the experts is.
    —————–

    yes … a lot of people don’t understand this, they call these “outliers”, “i would have been right about trump, but 2016 was an outlier …”

    no … you were just wrong.

    a good example of what you are saying is, if you want to find out about hitting a baseball you would have talked to people like ty cobb, babe ruth, ted williams, micky mantle etc. not the average person or median person on the street

    some people are just exceptional, or very very lucky

  190. ReadyFirst says:

    Unless there is more of a storm turn, or some other change, in 2-3 days, all national news is about to flow through weather channels Jim Cantore.

  191. mnw says:

    lisab

    Have you heard this before?

    When asked what sort of general officers he preferred, Bonaparte supposedly said, “Lucky ones.”

  192. Wes says:

    Lisa, honestly Corey will have a six way with Lorenza Izzo, Alice Braga, Bao Bao, Alicia Debnam-Carey, and Agnes Bruckner before Republicans gain House seats this year.

    That doesn’t mean Republicans can’t hold the House. They’re just not gaining seats this year.

  193. jason says:

    It could happen. A video could emerge of the entire Democratic leadership having wild sex with llamas.

  194. DW says:

    Its another election year, another year where Scott Walker is running, where many write him off as dead, and yet he somehow pulls the rabbit out of the hat again.

    Marquette:

    Evers 44%
    Walker 48%

  195. DW says:

    whoops…that WI poll was from June…538 keeps doing this thing where they put up current polls, and then toss an old one in with them.

  196. lisab says:

    honestly Corey will have a six way with Lorenza Izzo, Alice Braga, Bao Bao, Alicia Debnam-Carey, and Agnes Bruckner before Republicans gain House seats this year.
    ————————

    well, i don’t know who the above are, but i will assume i should not google them …

    but … i would submit that the gop gaining seats is NOT that unlikely (not as unlikely as corey having sex with five women)

    it would simply take a highly unlikely event that would turn people patriotic just before the election — and possibly not even a 9/11 scale event

    just something that would make the dems look like absolute tools … like if antifa started burning the flag across the nation and the dems supported it, maybe even something that small

    again, i am NOT saying it will happen, just that it could happen, maybe 1 in 10000

  197. Wes says:

    Corey could also bang Paola Saulino and Rooney Mars, Jason, but I wouldn’t stake my life savings on that.

  198. Wes says:

    Four of them are (nonporn) actresses. The other is a chef.

  199. CG says:

    Who the hell are those people?

  200. CG says:

    Unlike Donald Trump, I would only buy American.

  201. lisab says:

    When asked what sort of general officers he preferred, Bonaparte supposedly said, “Lucky ones.”
    ———————-

    no i have not seen that before.

  202. lisab says:

    Who the hell are those people?
    ————————————

    no one you need concern yourself with …

    wes, do you see the trouble you can cause? next thing you know corey will be on tmz getting arrested for stalking

  203. CG says:

    Rooney Mara looks exactly how I picture lisab.

    To each his own.

  204. lisab says:

    exactly how I picture lisab.
    ———————————-

    eeeeeeeeeew

  205. jason says:

    I think Ducey wins by 10, the Dem is a horrible candidate.

  206. ReadyFirst says:

    If the storm hits, how long until we get the, Trump won’t help black people, stories from the media? It worked well on Bush.

  207. Tina says:

    Walker is a closer.

    Desantis has resigned his Florida house seat.

  208. DW says:

    Stuff flying off shelves here in VA Beach. And yes, reports are that Trump hasn’t helped any women, children or minorities here in the Hampton Roads cities.

    And lest anyone forget how the media works, it hasn’t been denied that Bush might flood area tunnels preventing paths of escape.

  209. Messy says:

    A general election poll from late last month: Cuomo ahead by one. https://peekskill.dailyvoice.com/politics/too-close-to-call-new-poll-finds-gops-molinaro-closing-in-on-cuomo/741687/

    not sure if it’s any good.

    Also, New York’s is the third thursday primary this year. does anyone here remember any prior to this year?

  210. Cash Cow TM says:

    NYT poll released…

    WV CD3

    Miller (R) 47%
    Ojeda (D/loony toon) 41

    MOE +/- 6

  211. Cash Cow TM says:

    Are we supposed to blame George W. Bush for the approaching hurricane, or can we now blame Trump?

  212. Wes says:

    Tennessee always has Thursday primaries, Messy.

  213. Wes says:

    Personally, Walt, I’m blaming Cobra:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vAe9cxru10

  214. mnw says:

    Cow

    Does Miller(R) +6 sound about right to you?)

  215. Wes says:

    Walt, Fido has a new ad out showing him shooting the Obamacare repeal lawsuit. Will it help or hurt him?

    As I recall, the morons in your state elected him in 2010 after he publicly flip flopped on the issue three times and promised to vote for repeal. He voted for repeal by voting against repeal. Who with a functioning brain didn’t see that coming?

    Now he’s all in on Obamacare. What a bunch of idiots.

  216. DW says:

    Walt, that Siena poll is actually still in progress. They will add more calls to it today.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-wv03-1.html

  217. Robbie says:

    Unskew!

    Rebecca Berg
    @rebeccagberg

    President Trump’s approval is down to 36 percent in a new CNN poll, from 42 percent in August. Only 32 percent of people say they’re proud to have him as President

  218. Wes says:

    You mean she didn’t already by demagoguing literally everything she does not like as “notoriously sexist,” Corey?

    Fun fact: Candace Bushnell—the creator of the show Nixon rose to prominence on, Sex and the City—has only ever donated to Republicans so far as I can tell. Odd she would be a fan of the GOP.

  219. Tina says:

    hort
    Follow
    Newly released texts & docs obtained by House Oversight & Govt Reform Committee suggest that senior members of the FBI & DOJ led a coordinated effort to leak unverified info to the press regarding alleged “collusion with Russia” to damage Trump’s admin. saraacarter.com/new-texts-reve… pic.twitter.com/V4sMcCdukT
    12:13 PM – 10 Sep 2018

    Breaking, the dam is about to burst in the Muh Russian hoax.

    Indictments coming, whispers that several have turned against Comdy,

  220. Tina says:

    Nick Short
    @PoliticalShort
    1h
    While Strzok & Page texted about media leaks April 10-12, 2017…other docs indicate DOJ officials, specifically Andrew Weissmann, participated in unauthorized conversations w/media during the same time period. Weissmann is Mueller’s top prosecutor. But no conflict of interest? twitter.com/PoliticalShort…

    I bet Unweissman is one of the leakers, corrupt to the bone,

    He was at Hillarys election nig rally.

    Texted sjw Yates that he was proud that she stupidly halted doj enforcement of the travel band.

  221. Wes says:

    Dems lead MI-Gov 49-39 and MI-Sen 53-35. Put those to bed.

  222. mnw says:

    CNN ratings have slipped more than 20% in the last year. CNN now ranks below The Discovery Channel & HGTV in total viewership, & in prime time ratings.

    But the trolls love it… so I guess there must not be enough trolls?

  223. lisab says:

    so I guess there must not be enough trolls?
    —————————

    robbie has been reduced to combing the web for potentially bad news

    and the worst he could come up with is a CNN poll

  224. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #229
    Is this Wes or an interloper from Red Racing Horses?

  225. ReadyFirst says:

    228. No conflict there (eye roll). I assume that was a election night rally Weissman was at?

  226. lisab says:

    omarosa released another tape today

  227. ReadyFirst says:

    She’s fading faster than Woodward.

  228. Wes says:

    It is I, Sheep. I’m neither eeyore nor Pollyanna.

  229. dblaikie says:

    Today is a good example of why I have real problems with polls. On the same day we have the Rasmussen poll where Trump approval is minus 3 and CNN has one that is minus 20. Of course the false answer to this ridiculous situation is to think that if you average them you will come up with an accurate answer. OK but what if the minus 3 or minus 20 is an accurate poll, then averaging does nothing but dumb down the accurate polling model. Now if both polls are bogus then bogus averaged by bogus equals bogus. Now if both polls are semi-bogus when you average them together you will get a result that means nothing.

    So I believe these simple rules should be applied.

    1. polls with just adults mean nothing
    2. polls with registered voters is almost as bad because a significant percentage of them don’t vote
    3. polls with a likely voter screen, if the model is correct (a big, big, if) should be considered far more accurate and shouldn’t be averaged with lesser polls.
    4. trying to measure voter enthusiasm has as much science in it as alchemy.
    5. polls that are released by entities that hate Trump need to be suspected because all that those entities care about is defeating him.

  230. Messy says:

    200, 213. You sure? Walker’s cabinet has turned against him: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/midwest/ct-wisconsin-scott-walker-campaign-20180910-story.html

    Marquette’s last poll was a month ago. There’s nothing on the interwebs at all showing that poll you mentioned.

  231. Wes says:

    I’ve downgraded WI-Gov to Lean D Pickup and kept WI-Sen tat Lean D Lean Hold.

  232. Robbie says:

    Jason fraud will not stand for this. Trump is a very stable genius and will always have his respect.

    Erick Erickson
    @EWErickson

    I don’t have an answer to this and I only have anecdotes, but a lot of separate conversations saying the same thing. With the decided shift against POTUS in polling, how many GOP voters are saying, “Maybe Pence would be more stable?”

  233. Robbie says:

    Regardless of what I think of Trump or how I believe the election in November will turn out, I do find it very disappointing that good Republicans like Scott Walker or Barbara Comstock threaten to be towed under by the nasty environment brought on by Trump’s low approval rating. A lot of good careers may get crushed.

    Clearly, there has been turn against Trump in the polling since Labor Day. Republican candidates better hope it’s no different than the statistical blips that have occasionally showed Republicans closing the generic ballot gap.

  234. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    September 10, 2018 at 6:11 pm
    48/51

    – The last refuge of hope. A Rasmussen poll. Better than a Drudge poll I guess.

  235. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    September 10, 2018 at 4:46 pm
    CNN ratings have slipped more than 20% in the last year. CNN now ranks below The Discovery Channel & HGTV in total viewership, & in prime time ratings.
    But the trolls love it… so I guess there must not be enough trolls?

    – Rasmussen is viewed as a total joke by the scientific polling field. Only the Drudge poll ranks below it. But the Trump sycophants love it… so I guess there must be a lot of sycophants.

  236. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    September 10, 2018 at 4:52 pm
    so I guess there must not be enough trolls?
    —————————
    robbie has been reduced to combing the web for potentially bad news
    and the worst he could come up with is a CNN poll

    – No need to comb the web for it. It’s everywhere. You just don’t want to accept it.

    Here are the four most recent polls taken and included in the RCP average.

    Gallup 40-54
    Ras 48-51
    Q-poll 38-54
    CNN 37-57

    Take out the laughable Rasmussen poll, ad the last three credible, live caller polls shows Trump’s approval falling to 40% or lower.

  237. mnw says:

    “Vichey! Vichey! Vichey!”

    What I can’t figure is how illiterate trolls manage to override the autocorrect. It’s really difficult to stand exposed before the world as an ignoramus now that there’s autocorrect/spellcheck. Somehow they accomplish it, though.

    three iii’s; Vicheytoll; & The Kindergarten Kid.

    moron! moron moron!

  238. lisab says:

    soooooooo … you are saying walker will lose then?

  239. Hugh says:

    Tis the time for rescue polls. We will see how it works out. One thing I have learned in business is you give your client what they want if you want to keep their work. Follow the money. I suspect the gop will lose the house and pick up a few senate seats. I know this. I would be afraid to put a trump sticker on my Audi’s and to wear a maga hat out of fears of safety. How does that impact polling? But after being on the sidelines for donating to gop candidates I am all in again. I do not like trump but I like his policies. I am not stupid and I am not a racist and I do not like being labeled. 5k to Scott and anothe 5k to Whoever my wife and I think has a chance and needs money. Maybe Braun. My daughter years ago was friends with Molly Donnelly and daddy is a lightweight.

  240. mnw says:

    Hugh

    For me so far, Hawley; Rosendale; Housley; & Tarkanian (just nominal to Tark).

    Whenever I put a bumperstrip on my car (rarely), I get a magnetic one so that I can remove it whenever I’m not in the vehicle. I had 3 “Blue Lives Matter” stolen.

  241. mnw says:

    248 sb “”Vicheytroll; & The Kindergarden”

  242. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    September 10, 2018 at 6:21 pm
    “Vichey! Vichey! Vichey!”
    What I can’t figure is how illiterate trolls manage to override the autocorrect. It’s really difficult to stand exposed before the world as an ignoramus now that there’s autocorrect/spellcheck. Somehow they accomplish it, though.
    three iii’s; Vicheytoll; & The Kindergarten Kid.
    moron! moron moron!

    – I’m not posting from a device that has auto-correct and I hit “submit comment” before proofreading. Th horror of seeing a misspelled word in the HHR comment section. But if a misspelled word is all you need to disregard things you don’t want to hear, have at it sycophantic shill.

  243. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    September 10, 2018 at 6:28 pm
    soooooooo … you are saying walker will lose then?

    – soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo – no

  244. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    September 10, 2018 at 6:51 pm
    248 sb “”Vicheytroll; & The Kindergarden”

    – This from a populist nationalist troll who unreservedly supports a president who can’t even spell words correctly in his Twitter feed is rich.

  245. lisab says:

    so you don’t have any faith in what you say either

  246. mnw says:

    lisab

    Trolls like Vicheytroll apparently can’t understand your post about “no outliers.” Surprised?

    You might as well try to explain transubstantiation to a cat.

  247. Tina says:

    Peter Strzok was texting Lisa Page about a “media leak strategy” during a key point in the Trump-Russia probe (April 10-12, 2017), wonder if they were also involved in this Flynn leak to WaPo a few months before? dailycaller.com/2018/09/10/str… twitter.com/politicalshort…
    View summary ·

  248. mnw says:

    Trump’s next rally is in Jackson, MS on Fri. I don’t understand that choice of venue.

    The next one is in Cape Girardeau, MO, which is easy to understand.

    But why Jackson? Sheep? DW? Wes? Any ideas?

  249. Wes says:

    Cyndi Hyde-Smith, Mnw.

  250. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    A Gravis poll has McSally with a 1% lead in Arizona. Will see if the tend continues, but do believe she is now beginning to pull ahead.

    In Utah a recent polls in the Senate race have raised a few eyebrows. Romney is way ahead of Wilson, in a Dan Jones poll he leads 55% to 29%; and another poll 59% -18%. What is catching attention is in both polls show about 10% of the voters are going with the Libertarian, Constitution or other right-leaning parties. In 2012 Romney carried Utah 75%-24% over Obama, with less than 2% going for other parties.

  251. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    259. “But why Jackson? Sheep? DW? Wes? Any ideas?”

    Mississippi is not in the path of the hurricane, so it won’t be windy. Do I have to do all the thinking around here?

  252. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The GOP is doing very well in the four(4) Arkansas Congressional races. AR CD-2 has been considered a little iffy, but not according to this poll.

    https://talkbusiness.net/2018/09/incumbent-republicans-in-drivers-seat-in-all-4-congressional-races/

  253. mnw says:

    OK, Wes

    Thx. That makes sense. Hadn’t paid any attention to that one.

    If it goes to a runoff, the eyes of the nation could be on MS.

  254. Both Senate seats in Mississippi are up for election in November.

  255. Chicon says:

    246 – how many of those polls you cited use a likely voter screen. And in your view does it matter?

  256. mnw says:

    SDC

    I remembered MS SEN A was up. I forgot about the special, MS SEN B.

  257. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    September 10, 2018 at 7:49 pm
    246 – how many of those polls you cited use a likely voter screen. And in your view does it matter?

    – Rasmussen is the only poll of that group that currently screens for LV. Personally, I don’t care whether the poll is RV or LV right now. To me, the data is the data. In the last few weeks, a LV poll would be preferable.

    In 2012, this site got wound up about RV vs LV and it really didn’t matter at all. And considering the intensity of Democrat voters right now, a LV may show and even worse result for Republicans.

  258. mnw says:

    “Vichey! Vichey! Vichey!”

  259. Wes says:

    Mnw, is Honeybee a girl?

    S/he is one of the few at RRH not drinking the DNC Kool-Aid:

    HONEYBEE
    September 10, 2018 at 8:10 pm
    I decided to rate the house myself.
    My ratings were a little bit more favorable to the GOP than RRH. I decided to make a call on every race, because “tossups” are for weasels.
    https://www.270towin.com/2018-house-election/alem6Wl
    Feel free to criticize away
    Like Republicans who get things done, don’t just talk

  260. mnw says:

    I always assumed so. She/he is one of a handful of genuine GOP/conservative posters there who are quite sharp, imo.

  261. Hugh says:

    268. How about the intensity of us racist morons who have been abused day and night by the likes of you.

  262. Chicon says:

    268 – so, likely voter polls are not more likely to predict the behavior of actual voters than are polls of registered voter polls? Interesting theory.

  263. mnw says:

    Would any male poster who wasn’t gay & wanted the world to know it choose the screen name “honeybee”?

  264. Tgca says:

    LisaB

    Why you taking all those baby stats courses? 🙂

    If you’re not taking calculus based stats, why bother? My undergrad focus was in math so I had to take a combination of quantitative and theoretical math courses…and calculus based physics too instead of baby algebra based physics like the biology and chem majors.

    Calculus is baby math as well. Everyone should be able to finish all 3 courses in calculus before they leave high school me thinks. If one cannot do multiple integration and vector calculus by the 12th grade they should be left back dammit!

    Now analysis, abstract algebra, and partial differentlal equations are for real men…and will put hair on your chest.

    I once took a business stats class. I felt like I was in special ed. I only got a 99 on my mid-term. I think my final was 97 or 98. Clearly the teacher docked me points because I was gay and dressed way better than any guy in the class and had awesome hair. I know! I’m a math snob!!! But one with awesome hair and skin tone mind you.

    I was considering another Masters a few years back in applied statistics at Texas A&M but not sure it would fit in with my work schedule. If I had to do it all over again, I would have been a college professor of math or physics. How I miss those days of spending hours trying to solve complex equations or prove mathematical concepts. They were like puzzles that kept me oh so tense.

    …and y’all thought gay men only studied design. Humph!

  265. Tgca says:

    What’s wrong with honeybee as a profile name? Would you prefer ButtMonkey?

  266. Redmen4ever says:

    LAT/Dornsife poll 7/15-8/15 2459 LV: D+10 / D+7 with leaners in CGB

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K8hCf4c5AsWQPJxuaZ_2t5qwVgxAg6SE/view

  267. lisab says:

    Now analysis, abstract algebra, and partial differentlal equations are for real men…and will put hair on your chest.
    ———————

    i don’t want hair on my chest

  268. lisab says:

    i actually enjoy calculus and real analysis (proofs and such)

    but i am not particularly good at it.

    i have more understanding of statistics

    (non-theoretical stats, dealing with actual data)

  269. dblaikie says:

    Wormtongue reveals his true stripes in his inane attacks on the Rasmussen poll. He acts that folks are deluded by taking it seriously. Oh yes, you are far better in sticking with polls from NBC and CNN. Only one slight problem. Rasmussen was very accurate in 2016.

    So now we have 3 likely voter polls — Rasmussen, Selzer, and LA Times. All three seemed trustworthy in 2016. Let’s see, 4, 2, and 7. Yes I can buy that as of now the generic number is from 2 to 7 Dem. Seems logical to me.

  270. Wes says:

    A guy who bragged once about eating a plain veggie burger with a fork while drinking filtered water thinks he knows what a real man is.

    ::facepalm::

  271. lisab says:

    Wormtongue reveals his true stripes in his inane attacks on the Rasmussen poll.
    ———–

    also, he suggested that the polls show walker would lose due to trump’s low ratings

    but when i asked him if he was therefore predicting walker would lose

    he weaseled out … showing he has no confidence in what he is spewing

  272. Wes says:

    Db, Robbie cherrypicks the data he wants to use. Polling of individual races shows Republicans are doing reasonably well. Ergo, Robbie has to go to the RCP average to find his desired result of a landslide Dem victory.

    The only problem with that is that the US does not employ a parliamentary system to choose its national leadership. We elect our congressional representatives biannually in 435 House contests and at least 33 Senate contests. The RCP Average can’t account for how the votes will break down even if it is accurate.

    To think we’ve had to endure this for two years all because JEB! lost…

  273. Wes says:

    I think Walker will lose because Wisconsinites are tired of having a lightning rod as Governor, Lisa. He should have retired rather than run for reelection. Trump is fueling the fire of anti-Walker sentiment, but Walker himself should have realized most Governors, even in states with no term limits, hang it up for a reason after eight years.

    Quite simply Walker has outlived his shelflife.

  274. lisab says:

    he may lose, i imagine it will be close either way

    but robbie always says things like utah and idao may be in play

    but when pressed he won’t stick by his words because he has no faith in them

  275. Todd McCain says:

    I think the WV race is going to tighten considerably; wish we had gone with Jenkins though.

  276. mnw says:

    Tg

    I didn’t know you were “smart” smart. I can’t even help my kids with HS geometry.

    If it’s not too personal, what line of work are you in?

  277. mnw says:

    CNBC: “Small Business Optimism Surges to Highest Level Ever, Topping Reagan”

    But.. but… he boinked some playmate 12 years ago!

  278. Phil says:

    So, is Manchin now going to go all in by doubling down and voting against Kavanaugh as well?

    Doubt it. He’s too slippery for that. He’ll wait until Collins and Murkowski formally announce their yes votes to announce his support and then he will wait until AFTER the election to completely throw the mask away.

  279. dblaikie says:

    Wes, I agree. It is funny that he accuses us of cherry picking polls when he is worst cherry picker of them all. Heck, I don’t trust any poll even though I respect some more than others. And you are right about this not being a parliamentary election. However if either party is able to nationalize this midterm cycle, generic polls will become a little more meaningful (if they are true polls and not just propaganda). Even then, at best honest generic polls can only reveal trends.

  280. mnw says:

    47/51 today.

    I kind of loathe the way the msm remembers 9/11– sort of as if it were a tragic natural disaster.

  281. jason says:

    I see Amoral Scumbag has gone full moonbat and is advocating for some kind of coup to install Pence as President.

    But since he hates Pence as much as he hates Trump or anyone else not named Jeb, you could bet the first day of a Pence presidency he would be here attacking him with whatever garbage the MSM came up with.

    Amoral Scumbag never changes the M.O.

  282. jason says:

    What is catching attention is in both polls show about 10% of the voters are going with the Libertarian, Constitution or other right-leaning parties.”

    Nothing eye catching about this. In the first place, third party candidates usually poll a lot better than the actual results. Second, some deadenders don’t like Romney, and in true deadender fashion they would prefer a liberal Democrat to win so they can send a message.

  283. jason says:

    how many GOP voters are saying, “Maybe Pence would be more stable?”

    If they want someone more “stable”, elect him.

    Until then, Trump is the legitimate President.

  284. mnw says:

    I concede that Zero was perfectly “stable.” I prefer unstable– & my current IRA balance.

    I’m hoping for more “instability” of that sort.

  285. Phil says:

    How many GOP voters are saying “maybe Pence would be more stable”?

    I haven’t heard any Republicans clamoring for Pence. Does Robbie believe the establishment Republicans would be any happier with Pence? Nicole Wallace, Steve Schmidt, Ana Navaro, and the like would gladly install Hillary, however…as would Robbie. And, yeah, Pence wouldn’t be in office five minutes before Robbie would be ragging all over the guy. Who does he think he’s kidding?

  286. DW says:

    BOOM!

    Siena:

    WV_03 (tossup to lean R)

    Ojeda (D) 40%
    Miller (R) 48%

    BOOM!

    TX_23 (Lean D to Lean R)

    Ortiz Jones 42%
    Hurd (R) 52%

    BOOM!

    VA_07 (Tossup)

    Spanberger (D) 42%
    Brat (R) 48%

    BOOM!!

    Hendrix:

    AR_02 (Lean R)

    Tucker (D) 41%
    Hill (R) 50%

    Where is the blue-wave? Its just what I have been saying all along. This stuff isn’t hard to figure out. The blue wave is felt in the deepest of deep blue seats where Ocasio-Cortez and Pressley can and will win. But these were blue seats anyway. Its not translating to the competitive seats that the toupees keep saying will flip.

  287. Phil says:

    Miss America ratings plunge 23 percent after swimsuit competition eliminated. Yeah, sure, nobody saw that coming. LOL

  288. mnw says:

    DW

    Thx. Are those polls completed, do you know?

    If Siena told me it was cloudy, I’d still need to verify it with a light meter & a weather balloon, though.

  289. jason says:

    Maybe the blue wave will be stronger in districts where Dems already dominate, but less in districts where the electorate is not so far left?

    Maybe, like in the Presidential election of 2016, the Dems will “waste” a lot of votes running up big margins in non-competitive districts. In this case its possible a 5 point generic ballot lead for Dems will not translate into a lot of seats flipped.

    It’s a theory.

  290. DW says:

    It is a theory, and I think a reasonably solid one.

  291. DW says:

    WV Siena poll is complete. VA_07 a little over half done. TX_23 is three-fifths done.

  292. mnw says:

    There’ve been a lot of irritating events this past week that COULD have an effect on GOP enthusiasm/turnout. Nothing like disrupting a SCOTUS confirmation hearing & trotting out the Handmaids again.

    It’s a possibility.

  293. Phil says:

    Took my dog for his morning walk. As is his usual routine he peed on our token neighborhood Democrat’s Beto sign. Pepper doing his part. Canines for Cruz.

  294. mnw says:

    DW

    Then they still have time to “fix” those. Correct the D/R/I & so on.

  295. Paul says:

    Manchin’s strategy doesn’t sound dubious at all…..in one ad he demonstrates that he’s for West Virginian’s gun rights, (coal) jobs and healthcare. And those things don’t necessarily fall along any party lines. And I assume most people like all three.

  296. Wes says:

    This is actually what it does, Paul:

    IZENGABE
    September 11, 2018 at 10:25 am | In reply to segmentation_fault
    The point is in 2010 Manchin ran an ad promising to support the NRA, oppose Obamacare and shoot down Obama’s policies. Now 8 years later after he voted for gun control measures in the Senate and supported Obama’s policies he’s referencing that ad to highlight the fact that’s he’s done the exact opposite of what he said he would do in that ad! That takes some real chutzpah. The GOP should be all over him for this.
    Follow me on Twitter: @Izengabe_

    Hat tip, RRH.

  297. jason says:

    n one ad he demonstrates that he’s for West Virginian’s gun rights, (coal) jobs and healthcare.”

    When really he is not?

    He belongs to the party that wants to do away with the 2nd Amendment, eliminate all coal jobs, and socialized healthcare.

    It’s time to reveal him for the fraud that he is, if anyone in WVA had any doubts.

  298. jason says:

    “As is his usual routine he peed on our token neighborhood Democrat’s Beto sign.”

    You live in a neighborhood that has Dems?

    Ewwwwwwww…..

    All my neighbors are Amish. Not one Dem among them.

    Alas, probably not one voter either.

  299. mnw says:

    Personally, I’d triage WV. Until Walt says otherwise.

  300. jason says:

    I am beginning to think Tgca made a mistake being gay….

  301. jason says:

    The A-hole Club rarely gives out any awards to non-members, but I am going to nominate Tgca for the prestigious “Honorary Hetero Award”

  302. Phil says:

    I think just the one, Jason. His Beto sign gets more yellow every day so I’m thinking mine isn’t the only dog sprinkling the sign. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised f there weren’t some humans contributing…

  303. jason says:

    Do I have to do all the thinking around here?”

    If only Messy, Paul and Amoral Scumbag are here, yes.

    Sorry.

  304. mnw says:

    A poster at Ace of Spades blog posted something I thought was thought-provoking:

    What if DJT had been President on 9/11?

  305. mnw says:

    To a certain extent, the 9/11 hijackers had foreign govt support. I think it was to a much lesser extent than a lot of people do. However, the then-govt of Afghanistan openly supported Al Q; certain elements in the Pakistani govt & intelligence services did also. (So did DISSIDENT elements in Saudi Arabia, but the Kingdom was already trying to track them down BEFORE 9/11, because the same terrorists were attacking the Saudi govt.)

    Had Trump been President, I wonder if the Taliban regime & the Pakis might not have suppressed the terrorists, instead of assisting them.

  306. DW says:

    538 finally moves TX_23 from Lean D to Tossup.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | RRH | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr. — Latest Poll R/D
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5 —
    PA_14* D | 145 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.5 —
    OK_05 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3 —
    OH_10 R | 147 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3 —
    CA_22 R | 148 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 — 48/43 (Tulchin-D)
    NY_23 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 —
    AZ_06 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1 —
    NC_08 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1 —
    MO_02 R | 152 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | 4.8 — 51/40 (Rem.)
    AK_01 | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 — 40/36 (Lake Res.)
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 —
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 —
    AZ_08 R | 156 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8 —
    IA_04 | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6 — 41/31 (Emerson)
    CO_03 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6 —
    FL_15* R | 159 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.6 —
    TX_31 R | 160 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4 — 46/40 (PPP-D)
    IN_02 R | 161 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4 —
    FL_06* R | 162 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4 — 47/46 (D-Int)
    MI_01 R | 163 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4 —
    NY_27 | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | 4.2 —
    SC_01 R | 165 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 49/42 (PPP-D)
    CA_04 R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 —
    FL_25 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 46/39 (St. Pete)
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2 — 33/27 (Chg Res.)
    WI_06 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4 —
    GA_07 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | 4 — 44/46 (Tulchin-D)
    OH_14 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 —
    PA_16 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4 — 50/44 (D-Int)
    MI_07 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4 — 41/37 (DCCC-D)
    NY_24 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 — 54/39 (Siena)
    NC_02 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7 — 44/45 (GQR-D)
    FL_18 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 —
    MI_06 R | 177 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7 — 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D)
    CA_21 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5 —
    NY_01 R | 179 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5 —
    WA_03 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3 — 42/37 (Lake R.)
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3 — 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int)
    IL_14 R | 182 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3 — 45/41 (PPP-D)
    GA_06* R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3 — 49/47 (39th Street)
    PA_10 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1 —
    NY_11 R | 185 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.1 —
    CA_50 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8 — 47/39 (SUSA) | 46/46 (Tulchin-D)
    AR_02 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8 — 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix)
    VA_05 R | 188 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8 —
    MT_01 R | 189 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.6 — 43/49 (Gravis)
    IL_13 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4 — 45/42 (PPP-D)
    NM_02* R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2 — 49/35 (Carroll)
    WA_05 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2 — 44/38 (elway)
    NC_13 R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2 — 40/35 (Civitas)
    UT_04 R | 194 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 46/44 (D-Int) | 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones)
    WI_01* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2 — 40/41 (GSG-D)
    OH_12 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6 — 48/44 (PPP-D)
    PA_01 R | 197 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4 — 49/42
    VA_02 R | 198 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.3 — 48/42 (PPP-D)
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3 — 41/43 (Monm.) |48/40 (Siena)
    NE_02 R | 200 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 1.3 —
    TX_32 R | 201 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1 — 47/45 (GBA)
    FL_26 R | 202 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1 — 48/41 (DCCC-D)
    IL_06 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 0.8 — 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 45/44 (Siena)
    OH_01 R | 204 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | 0.8 — 43/42 (PPP-D)
    IL_12 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 0.7 — 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/43 (Siena)
    VA_07 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 0.7 —
    TX_23 R | 207 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.7 — 44/43 (PPP-D)
    ME_02 R | 208 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.6 — 40/39 (D-Int)
    NJ_03 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.5 — 41/40 (Monm.)
    KS_03 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.5 — 43/46 (GSG-D)
    NJ_07 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0.3 — 45/47 (GQR-D)
    MN_03 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln D | Toss | 0.3 — 43/46 (PPP-D) | 42/51 (Siena)
    KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 34/39 (Mellman-D)
    MI_08 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 45/39 (Target Ins)
    TX_07 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 47/45 (D-Int.)
    IA_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.3 — 47/31 (Emerson)
    CA_45 R | 217 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 45/44 (D-Int) | 46/49 (D-Int)
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.2 — 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena)
    MN_08* D | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.2 — 43/44 (Siena)
    KY_06 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln D | 0 — 49/45 (FLA-R) |47/46 Siena
    MN_01* D | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 47/33 (Harper)
    CA_39* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0 — 45/43 (DCCC-D)
    NC_09* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.1 — 43/44 (D-Int)
    CA_10 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.1 — 48/48 (GHY-D)
    WA_08* R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2 — 51/45 (GBA)
    CA_48 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2 — 45/47 (Monm.) |45/45 (Siena)
    CO_06 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2 — (45/45 IMGE)
    NY_22 R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2 — 44/46 (Siena)
    MN_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2 — 43/42 (PPP-D) |46/45 (R-Int)
    CA_25 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.3 — 47/47 (IMGE)
    MI_11* R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.6 — 42/45 (PPP-D)
    IA_01 R | 204 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -0.8 — 41/43 (D Int.) | 38/43 (Emerson)
    NJ_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.6 — 38/40 (Monmouth)
    PA_07* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Sf D | Ln D | -1.8 —
    AZ_02* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.8 —
    VA_10 R | 200 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8 — 39/49 (Monm.)
    CA_49* R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8 — 46/43 (R-Int)
    NH_01* D | 198 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8 —
    NV_03* D | 197 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1 —
    PA_17 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | Lk D | -2.4 — 39/51 (Monm.)
    NV_04* D | 195 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6 — 41/41 (R-Int)
    FL_27* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1 —
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1 —
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3 —
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -3.5 — 46/47 (St. Pete)
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5 —
    NJ_05 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4 — 39/36 (R-Int)
    PA_06* R | 188 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4 —
    NJ_02* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.2 — 39/44 (PPP-D)
    CA_07 D | 186 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2 — 41/50 (POS)
    CT_05* D | 185 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6 —
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8 —
    NH_02 D | 183 | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8 —
    PA_05* R | 182 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.1 —
    CA_24 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1 — 46/47 (Olive Tree St.)
    NY_18 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1 —
    IA_02 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3 —
    WI_03 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5 —
    FL_13 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5 —
    MD_06 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5 —
    NY_25 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 — 31/55 (Siena)
    OR_05 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    NY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —
    KY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7 —

    *indicates open seat

  307. jason says:

    I think he would have basically followed what GWB did, invaded Afghanistan to topple the terrorist supporting Taliban regime. But I don’t think he would have been as effective with the long term measures of the War on Terror such as the Patriot Act, Homeland Security, surveillance, etc. I think he would have been more short term oriented, but I could be wrong.

    Certainly he would have been better than Al Gore, who would have installed a committee to take a year to issue a recommendation on this outrageous act by “militants”.

  308. jason says:

    To a certain extent, the 9/11 hijackers had foreign govt support.”

    Hello?

    They had the full support of a constituted state. Airlines, banks, diplomatic support, infrastuure, logistics, you name it.

    9/11 would have not been possible without the support of the Taliban government.

  309. jason says:

    Had Trump been President, I wonder if the Taliban regime & the Pakis might not have suppressed the terrorists, instead of assisting them.”

    Stop wondering.

    The answer is not in a million years.

  310. Paul says:

    Many think that Trump would have taken a greater authoritarian role after 9/11, cracking down on civil liberties and freedoms.

    Obviously that is the fear that many have about Trump going forward….both on the right and the left.

  311. mnw says:

    Well, I agree that 9/11 wouldn’t have been possible without the Taliban regime in Afghanistan being in power.

    I’m not so sure the Taliban had the sophistication to pull off 9/11 all by itself, though. I suspect not.

    The terrorists’ allies were likely not sure how GWB would react. They wouldn’t have had to guess about DJT.

  312. mnw says:

    “Many think” idiot trolls should be banned, esp trolls “in the accounting field.”

  313. mnw says:

    That WOULD be awful if Trump “took a greater authoritarian role.” (Query: what “great” authoritarian role has Trump already taken? Trying to win the midterms? Why that bastid!)

    In any event, in a worst case scenario, if Trump went all authoritarian suddenly, I guess he could launch a secret program to use the IRS against his political opponents? Or maybe turn the FBI & the DOJ into a secret arm of Hillary’s campaign?

  314. Todd McCain says:

    New Suffolk Poll for Nevada:

    Sisolak +2

    Even in the Senate race.

  315. GPO says:

    DiGenova mentions, “James Baker, former FBI General Counsel, is a cooperating witness in a case against James Comey

  316. jason says:

    The terrorists’ allies were likely not sure how GWB would react.”

    This is fantasy. GWB was considered an “interventionist” much more than Trump.

    And of course the attack was planned way before they knew who would be President. I don’t think that factored at all in to the equation.

  317. jason says:

    I’m not so sure the Taliban had the sophistication to pull off 9/11 all by itself, though. I suspect not.”

    No, but it wasn’t their plan.

    Bin Laden engineered it while under the protection of the Taliban government and with their full logistical (and ideological) support.

    And if you remember, Bush did give the Taliban an out from being invaded, which was to give up Bin Laden and the Al Qaeda leadership. They refused because of course they were involved in the plot.

    The Taliban could have survived in power had they met the demands, but it probably would have been politically untenable for them.

    “Issuing a string of demands to the Afghanistan regime, Mr Bush told the Taliban to handover all terrorists connected to bin Laden’s al Qa’eda terrorist network and close all its training camps.

    The Taliban must also let American officials inspect the camps to ensure that they had ceased to function, Mr Bush said. And in reference to several aid workers detained in Afghanistan, Mr Bush demanded that the Taliban must release all foreign nationals.

    “These demands are not open to negotiation or discussion,” Mr Bush said. “The Taliban must act and act immediately. They will hand over the terrorists, or they will share in their fate.”

  318. jason says:

    Obviously that is the fear that many have about Trump going forward….both on the right and the left.”

    LOL, idiot troll has outdone himself…

    So what “freedoms” do you think Trump wants to “curtail” exactly?

    You want to curtail constitutional freedoms like the 2nd Amendment, right?

    Believe me, I am much more worried of having freedoms curtailed by the nanny state than anything Trump does.

  319. mnw says:

    I hope Trump’s political advisors are telling him to triage WV (unless Walt disagrees) & add on an extra one in NV.

    jason

    You got the last word on Taliban, etc.

  320. jason says:

    On the WE ARE WINNING front…

    “Nearly 40 million Social Security numbers have been stolen and used by illegal immigrants and others to get work, according to agency records obtained by an immigration reform group.

    The Immigration Reform Law Institute said that from 2012 to 2016 there were “39 million instances where names and Social Security numbers on W-2 tax forms did not match the corresponding Social Security records.”

    The group said that there is a “thriving black market” used by illegal immigrants to get Social Security numbers needed to get a job.”

  321. jason says:

    You got the last word on Taliban, etc.”

    May your llamas be fat and happy!

  322. DW says:

    Siena just released their adjusted numbers for the polls they have done:

    TX_23

    Hurd (R) 49
    Ortiz Jones 40

    VA_07

    Brat (R) 48
    Spanberger (D) 39

    WV_03

    Miller (R) 48
    Ojeda (D) 37

    MN_03

    Paulson (R) 40%
    Phillips (D) 40%

    MN_08

    Stauber (R) 43
    Radinovich (D) 42

    KY_06

    Barr (R) 48
    McGrath (D) 43

    IL_12

    Bost (R) 44
    Kelly (D) 37

    CA_48

    Rohrabacher (R) 39
    Rouda (D) 46

    IL_06

    Roskam (R) 39
    Casten (D) 40

    All decent or good except MN_03 and CA_48

  323. DW says:

    typo on MN_03, should have said 50 to 40 the drat in the lead.

  324. mnw says:

    DW

    RE: IL-12

    IL-12 is the one where Correetroll explained to me that 1) Bost (R-inc) had “a LOT of enemies” & was “WERY WERY* controversial* (because he shot a dog once, or something); that the DEM had a YUUGE FR advantage”, etc… while OF COURSE Correetroll refused to predict that Bost (R-inc) would actually lose!

    I explained that I had personal knowledge about this race, & that I thought every point he raised (apparently the result of 5 minutes of oppo, research online) was DEADADZ wrong!

    The last PPP(D) poll even had Bost (R) +5. But Correetroll knows more about the district than I do. I’ve known Bost’s DEM opponent casually for 15 years, btw.

    I also got into it about IL-12 at RRH with VASTBLIGHTKINGCONSPIRACY, who explained, like Correetroll, that I was an ignorant POS. As I said in another post here, that’s when I just got angry & posted at HHR, “The only prediction I will make for the midterms is that Bost will survive.”

    * homage to Elmer Fudd

  325. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is the just released Suffolk University Poll of the Senate and Governor’s races in Nevada.In sum, the Senate race is Heller(R) down by .4%,a dead heat and Laxalt(R) down by 2.0%.
    The conservative third parties are taking about 3-5%.

    https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_11_2018_marginals.pdf

  326. mnw says:

    RE: illegal aliens & misuse of SSN’s

    When filling out an I-9 “Employment Eligibility Form,” your illegal alien usually just makes an SSN up, on the spot.

    Six months later, SSA sends the employer a “no match” letter, explaining that the SSN on the I-9 either belongs to someone else, or has never been assigned to anyone.

    On the rare occasion when ICE does an I-9 inspection (which they have a right to do at any time, without probable cause or anything else), ICE usually discovers a stack of unopened “no match” letters in the bottom of a trash can somewhere.

    Alternatively, I can go into most cities & buy a phony SSN card AND a phony green card (Lawful Permanent Alien Registration card, aka “LAPR”) for $75. By now, maybe $100– I’m usually little out of date.

  327. mnw says:

    Sheep 337

    I’m hopeful that Trump can persuade a lot of those “conservative third party” 3%-5%.

    The DEMs in MT actually went out & collected the necessary signatures there to get the “L” on the ballot. The old boy who is “running” in MT just sat on his front porch & said, “Thanks, fellers!”

  328. Redmen4ever says:

    If we had Donald Trump as president on 9-11 who knows how fascist/nazi/commie/KKK/Genghis Khan/Borg/Westboro Baptist we would have gotten. I’m afraid we would have done things such as:

    1. waterboard terrorists
    2. extraordinary rendition
    3. hold enemy combatants indefinitely
    4. authorize massive wiretapping of Americans
    5. wiretap journalists, members of Congress and the Supreme Court, and heads of state of foreign countries
    6. use FISA warrants to spy on political enemies
    7. collude with Russian intelligence for oppo research
    8. use the IRS against political enemies
    9. shake down banks for donations to Democrat get-out-the vote organizations
    10. invade Iraq
    11. authorize the overthrow of Qadaffi
    12. arm Al Qaida in Syria

    Why, we would hardly recognize this country any longer if Donald Trump were President. But, thankfully, we had Bush and Obama and didn’t those things.

  329. Messy says:

    319. A President Gore wouldn’t have needed to do much of anything, as the Bush administration had stopped spying on the conspirators shortly after taking office, thinking that the Clinton administration was being hysterical about Bin Laden ad his friends.

    Under President Gore, the hijackers would have been arrested on entering the country and nothing of note would have happened on 9/11.

    340. #’s 6, 8, 11, 12 and 7 never happened.
    #7 did, but was done by Trump before he became president.

  330. mnw says:

    RE: 341

    PLEASE don’t dignify that trollslop by refuting it.

    Three iii’s is the same troll who posted that “the GOP killed Obama’s economic plans because he was black.”

    JAYSUS, you’re just an idiot!

    Pretty well covers it, right?

  331. Wes says:

    As soon as I saw the name I skipped past it, Mnw. His polls make Robbie look erudite. I have zero interest in reading his idiocy.

  332. Wes says:

    Don’t forget he also said Ebola cost the Dems the 2014 elections, Mnw. It had nothing to do with a smarmy, divisive, unpopular Dem as President. Not a thing. No sirree.

  333. Redmen4ever says:

    341 – According to the 9-11 Commission, 9-11 would have been prevented if Jamie S. Gorelick had not stove-piped “intelligence” and “law enforcement.”

    The distinction between “intelligence” and “law enforcement” was revived in many ways by the Obama administration.

    Regarding your argument that Trump colluded with Russia before being elected: the person who was President at the time was Obama. If Russia was attempting to compromise our elections, it was his responsibility to stop it. Why didn’t Obama act, in real time, to protect our elections?

    But, let’s assume that Obama was no more competent at stopping Russian interference in our elections as he was in stopping Assad from using chemical weapons. Then, it should be a high priority for Robert Mueller to bring evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors” to the attention of the U.S. House of Representatives. But, no, Mueller’s focus – so far – has been on tax evasion.

    Many Mueller will, one day, make a report to Congress warranting impeachment. If the evidence is so clear, why has he already taken so long?

  334. Wes says:

    Mnw, has this RRH “Republican” ever posted anything but that Dems will sweep every cycle?

    VASTBLIGHTKINGCONSPIRACY
    September 11, 2018 at 2:12 pm | In reply to krazen1211
    On both points, I think it’d be tremendously challenging for the GOP to hold a Senate Majority in 2020 unless Trump wins a really big re-election. Like we’re basically even-odds to hold the Senate today and 2020 is a much more challenging map.
    And yes, looking at the math, it gets really hard for Dems to drag the GOP below 26/27 state delegations.
    As it stands though, it now seems entirely plausible to me that we end up getting something amusing like Donald Trump as POTUS and Kamala Harris as VP
    I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Republican.

  335. Wes says:

    For the record , I already did the 2020 breakdown. It doesn’t look disastrous for the GOP and in fact at the moment looks worse for the Dems because of the lame duck in AL.

  336. Wes says:

    Wow! Some liberal in AZ has his/her thong in a wad over how McSally is defining Sinema:

    https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2018/09/11/martha-mcsally-krysten-sinema-midterm-elections-arizona/1269808002/

    Mr. Triage Arizona would not approve of how formidable a candidate McSally is.

  337. CG says:

    336. No, what I said was that Bost was a slight favorite.

    I hope you have the best possible medical care.

  338. Tina says:

    Enema will lose.

    Pink tutu ad and party reg numbers favor us,

    Jebots chrushed, they moved on from Hillary to enema.

  339. Tina says:

    On the Mornimg Transgendere program, Joe Scarfarce said trump is more dangerous than the terrorists.

    Certainly, nbc should suspend him..

  340. Tina says:

    Sara Carter to name media persons that collided with the coup plotters.

    This should be priceless and explains ten likes of Woodwart and Blankstein.

  341. Cash Cow TM says:

    “The Internal Revenue Service could hand Texas more than $300 million, after a federal court in North Texas ruled that the federal government improperly charged a handful of states millions in state Medicaid program fees that help fund the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton led a group of states in a 2015 lawsuit to recover money the federal government collected from the Health Insurance Providers Fee.”

    Under the ruling, issued Aug. 21, Texas stands to be repaid $304.7 million. Other states due to get payouts are Louisiana ($172.5 million), Kansas ($142.1 million), Indiana ($94.8 million), Wisconsin ($88.9 million) and Nebraska ($36.2 million), according to the attorney general’s office.”

  342. Cash Cow TM says:

    NEWS IN NUMBERS

    4,600
    SEPTEMBER 11, 2018
    Medicaid recipients in Arkansas who have lost their health insurance for the rest of this year after failing to meet the state’s new work requirements. Arkansas is the first state to implement this policy.
    Source: CNN

    3.6%
    SEPTEMBER 10, 2018
    Expected increase, on average, in health premiums on the insurance exchanges next year. That represents a major drop from this year when the average increase was 30 percent.
    Source: AP/ABC News

    23,000
    SEPTEMBER 7, 2018
    People who have been registered to vote incorrectly by the California Department of Motor Vehicles. They will soon receive letters instructing them to check their registration status.
    Source: Tribune News Service

    868
    SEPTEMBER 6, 2018
    Polling places that closed in the three years after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down key parts of the Voting Rights Act. Many of them were in majority-black areas in the South.
    Source: Stateline

    Sept. 14
    SEPTEMBER 4, 2018
    Final day that Puerto Rican hurricane refugees can stay in hotels with funding from the federal government.
    Source: Tribune News Service

    4%
    AUGUST 31, 2018
    State government websites that passed security tests performed by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.
    Source: U.S. News & World Report

  343. Gelt Goose says:

    Honk.

  344. ssq says:

    Under President Gore, the hijackers would have been arrested on entering the country and nothing of note would have happened on 9/11.”

    This so stupid even I could have written it.

  345. Cash Cow TM says:

    mnw says:
    September 10, 2018 at 4:11 pm
    Cow

    Does Miller(R) +6 sound about right to you?)
    ***********************************************
    mnw,

    I am feeling more comfortable that Miller will win in WV CD3. Ojeda beats the drum for lots of far left things, which does not match the beliefs of the people in that district.

    Trump won WV CD3 by 50 points in 2016–even though for many decades it was a huge D stronghold.
    Before the year 2000, WV CD3 elected VERY few Rs to the State Senate and WV House of Delegates.
    Now, the majority of legislators from that 1/3 of WV are Rs. They finally saw the light.

    After the next census, WV will lose 1 seat in the House of Representatives and WV will most likely be split into a N and a S CD and whoever wins in WV CD3 will most likely be edged out of a seat.

    Carol Miller’s father was in the U.S. House of Rep. from Ohio when Carol was a teenager and she tells of her remembrances of living in the DC area. She is probably about 65 years old now.

  346. Cash Cow TM says:

    Gelt Goose says:
    September 11, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    Honk.

    HEY THERE, GOOSIE!
    Long time, no honk!
    ****************************
    ssq,

    Walt says, “and how YOU doin’?

  347. Bitterlaw says:

    I watched History Channel’s coverage of the terrorist attack. The most chilling footage was a line of firemen walking towards the burning towers. I expect that they all died less than an hour later. Horrifying.

  348. Bitterlaw says:

    I want to congratulate Tgca for winning the Honorary Hetero Award. The A-holes don’t just embrace everybody.

  349. Chicon says:

    Bitter, watching a new 9/11 show on History now. People are amazing. Americans are amazing. Just regular people doing heroic things when the situation suddenly demands it. I wonder how I would have handled it?

  350. Robbie says:

    Impossible. When I suggested in March 2017 Trump’s unpopularity would be a lead weight around the necks of Republicans, I was assured that wouldn’t be the case.

    Philip Rucker
    @PhilipRucker

    Republicans are openly fretting about losing the Senate majority, a prospect that once seemed unlikely, because of Trump’s unpopularity and some lackluster candidates, @WaPoSean reports

  351. Chicon says:

    362 – stupid.

  352. Chicon says:

    Can WaPo Phil cite anyone for a quote? Prolly not….

    Robbie’s new name is Captain (he’s a pilot, after all) Confirmation Bias….

  353. mnw says:

    Wes 346

    In answer to your question: No, not as far as I know.

    We talked about VASTBLIGHTKING before, remember? HE’S the super-arrogant, condescending azalea who cut me a new one when I flat-out predicted that Bost (R-inc; IL-12) would survive the midterm GE. He explained that, “obviously you haven’t paid attention to the most recent polling.”

    Correetroll is a coward AND a liar. Tell us AGAIN about how Bost (R) has “LOTS of enemies!” & is “highly controversial!” because he “shot a dog once,” & how FORMIDABLE his DEM opponent Brendan Kelly is*? Because Kelly has “far outraged Bost”?

    And then, you go right up to the line, as ALWAYS, & after posting all that jaw dropping CRAP, you say “but of course, I’m not predicting
    anything!” F you!

    *Ever actually MET Brendan… you bone ignorant zh*thed?

    F you!

  354. Tina says:

    Much fretting.

  355. mnw says:

    365 sb “far outraised Bost”

  356. Gpo says:

    September 11, 2018 at 6:21 pm
    For the record , I already did the 2020 breakdown. It doesn’t look disastrous for the GOP and in fact at the moment looks worse for the Dems because of the lame duck in AL.

    I think Alabama sure flip for Republicans

    Only 3 r seats are possibly endangered and I’m not even sure bat they are
    Tillis in Nc,Gardener in CO ?

    Assume Collins prob safe in Maine

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2020

  357. Wes says:

    I don’t know how endangered Tillis is, GPO. NC has become very Republican lately, and Tillis is not an offensive or lazy Senator. Plus, Dems have no obvious candidates to challenge him. We can be a highly mercurial state, but realistically Dems have no apparent case against Tillis’ reelection as things stand.

  358. Wes says:

    On the other hand, Gardner will have to work incredibly hard for reelection in a state Republicans haven’t had much success in since 2004.

  359. Gpo says:

    Barring anything crazy 2020 looks +/- 1 either way
    Stating th obvious but that’s why this year senate elections so important. If we can get to 54+, even if dems win 2020 should hold senate for awhile

  360. Gpo says:

    Good to hear Tillis I don’t know NC politics

  361. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes – I hope you are far inland from the hurricane. We fight but I want you to be safe,

    DW – You might get hit, too. Be safe.

  362. Wes says:

    Thanks, Bitter. We’re prepared for it.

  363. Tina says:

    Stay safe Wes and others facing the hurricane,

  364. Florida Guy says:

    Philip Rucker
    @PhilipRucker

    Republicans are openly fretting about losing the Senate majority, a prospect that once seemed unlikely, because of Trump’s unpopularity and some lackluster candidates, @WaPoSean report

    ————-

    LOL.

    It’s the Washington Post! LOL

    They are out to make DeSantis look like Roy Moore. They are young kids who are Democrats.

  365. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In the 538/Siena/NY Times Poll of TX CD-23, Will Herd(R) takes it 51-43.

  366. Tgca says:

    360 Bitter

    …and what did I do to deserve this distinguished honor?

  367. Wes says:

    Republicans are favored in more Dem seats than Dems are favored in GOP ones. How then are Republicans expecting to lose the Senate?

  368. lisab says:

    so robbie is now predicting the republicans lose the senate?

  369. Bitterlaw says:

    Tgca – Jason praised you. A-holes generally stand together.

  370. Redmen4ever says:

    According to Prof. Fair of Yale U., the Democrats should pull 51 percent of the two-party vote in Congressional voting. This is based on economic performance to date and a (now stale) forecast that the economy will slow down during the third quarter. When he updates his model, if he does prior to the election, to reflect that the economy is continuing to grow at a rate faster than 3.2 percent this quarter, his model will predict that the Republicans will edge out the Democrats in the two-party vote.

    While the economy supports the Republicans, the polls indicate that the Republicans are on the defense this year. Similarly, two years ago, Fair’s model predicted a big win for the Republicans in the Presidential race, when Trump actually lost the popular vote. Fair thinks the discrepancy was because of Trump’s unfavorablility.

    https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.htm

  371. messy says:

    340-42. You guys are the ones who cannot believe the truth, not me.

  372. Todd McCain says:

    OH Predictive:

    McSally 49
    Sinema 46

    Wish every Republican in the country would run like McSally.

  373. Wes says:

    Increasingly good news in AZ.

  374. Wes says:

    Truth being defined as saying Dems lost in 2014 because of Ebola, Messy?

  375. Tina says:

    Lisa’s, they are now on to Muh senate.

    However, from what I read, we could gain 4 seats.

  376. Tina says:

    Enema has been destroyed by the pink tutu ad.

    That was a successful decapitation strike.

    But bye Enema,

  377. Todd McCain says:

    I wish Trump would stop talking about PR and just focus on the admin doing a great job with Florence.

    I have just never seen a President step on his daily message as much as this guy…..

  378. DW says:

    Drudge with several links up featuring the tolerant left:

    SUSPECT TRIES STABBING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WITH SWITCHBLADE…
    CAMPAIGN SIGN USED TO FEND OFF…
    COPS: CURSED PRESIDENT BEFORE VIOLENCE…
    MASS SHOOTING TWEET THREATENS TRUMP HOTEL EVENT…
    Secret Service probes actress calling for assassination…
    WYOMING GOP OFFICE SET ON FIRE…
    Conservative Columnist Goes Into Hiding After Rape, Death Threats…
    SCALISE WARNS: LEFT INCITING…

  379. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Gov. Rick Scott(R) +2 in 2018 Florida Senate race in a poll by Survey USA.
    http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2018/09/12/decision-2018–undecided-voters-will-be-key-in-senate-race

  380. Wes says:

    Mnw trolls an RRH “Republican” on AZ-Sen:

    Some poster here recently said the GOP needs to “triage” McSally, as I recall, right?

  381. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    I hope StrawDog posts at Red Racing Horses this just released Rasmussen(less) Congressional Generic Poll which stays at R42% to D46%.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

  382. mnw says:

    DW & Sheep

    Didn’t SUSA get dumped from RCP averages, because it was adjudged to be junk? As always, my info is dated, even if it’s correct.

    RRH & msm are eeyoring up a STORM today, fittingly enough.
    There really is little reason to have the election. The blue wave is a foregone conclusion. /s

  383. mnw says:

    Sheep

    That’s the new one? I already called their attention to the previous one.

  384. Diamond Jim says:

    CD

  385. mnw says:

    Sheep 397

    Done.

  386. DW says:

    mnw, I can only take so much of RRH. Their regular moderators will post the daily update referring to Trump as ‘His Orangeness’ but if you go there and start calling Hillary ‘Her Thighness’ you could get banned. But their constant hand-wringing and gloom and doom gets wearisome. Some of those people should have taken up knitting as a hobby instead of politics.

  387. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #401
    StrawDog is the best poster at RRH.
    As for the new Florida Senate Poll, Real Clear Politics posted the data yesterday for the FL Governor’s race from the same pollster.

    I really dislike the RRH poster Tekzilla. He does nothing more than post at The Daily Kos and then parachutes into RRH with negative GOP polls.

  388. DW says:

    UT_04

    Y2 Analytics

    McAdams 42%
    Love 51%

  389. Tina says:

    Are the Rh site moderators, the Clinton groupie or the Jebot?

  390. DW says:

    Sheeple, go back and read 2016 election night–Tekzilla was a basket case if I recall correctly.

  391. Tina says:

    Some breathing room for Love in Utah.

    I am not seeing a blue wave.

    Maybe the house flips, but this is less certain than a few weeks ago.

  392. NYCmike says:

    “Some breathing room for Love in Utah.”

    -For Love?? That would have been a lot more fun!

    At the 8th Grade Dances, the nuns always said “Leave room for the Holy Spirit.” instead.

  393. mnw says:

    Tekzilla is definitely in the bottom 5 worst. “Election Brown” has been campaigning for that honor too, lately.

    They are not so much dooming & glooming as concern trolling.

  394. mnw says:

    If China wants the best trade deal they’re ever gonna get from Trump, they’ll settle the dispute before the midterms. China knows this.

    Apparently, the “trade war” with Canada is about over– Canada has blinked a little on dairy products, per CNBC.

  395. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News: Robbie sees a blue wave coming. Tina does not see a blue wave coming. HHR holds it breath to see who is right. Developing…..

  396. Cash Calf says:

    Moo…

  397. Tina says:

    The Canadian trade mi inter is a piece of work. Socialist scum.

    She left negotiations to attend “trump is a tyrant.”

    Trump should just go ahead and cancel Nafta withnCanada,

  398. jason says:

    I see Amoral Scumbag is hoping the Dems take the Senate too.

    Because he is a Republican and a conservative.

  399. Tima says:

    Look for the Jebots to politicize the hurricane.

  400. Tima says:

    Look for the Jebots to politicize the hurricane.

  401. Tina says:

    Looks like I accidentally posted as Tima.

    An error.

  402. Bitterlaw says:

    Sorry, Tina. Misspellings and typos now make you a troll under the Vichy/Vichey Rule.

  403. jason says:

    Bitter is still trying to pretend “Vichey” was a typo or misspelling?

    Sorry, that dog won’t hunt. That was pure ignorance.

  404. Wobbles says:

    I like hurricanes because I think they are bad for Trump.

  405. DW says:

    Announcing a new product today from Paladin Polling. The existing Dashboard product sorts congressional seats in order of average ranking by the three toupees, CNN, 538, etc.

    Thanks to recent polling, all of the most hotly contested congressional seats have at least one poll. So a new dashboard has been developed to sort by the polling gap, where three points are added to the gap for the opponent party when the poll is a campaign internal.

    Here is the first round of this new Dashboard that will be maintained along with the prior Dashboard.

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 14
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    IA_04 – – 41/31 (Emerson) | 10
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 9
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | (49/40 (Siena) | 9
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 8
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 7
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 7
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 7
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 7
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 6
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 6
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 6
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 6
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 6
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 5
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 5
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 5
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 5
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena | 5
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 5
    AK_01 – – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 4
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 47/46 (D-Int) | 3
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 46/46 (Tulchin-D) | 3
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 3
    CA_10 – R – 48/48 (GHY-D) | 3
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 2
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (39th Street) | 2
    WI_01* – R – 40/41 (GSG-D) | 2
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 1
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monm.) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 1
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 0
    CA_45 – R – 45/44 (D-Int) | 46/49 (D-Int) | 0
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 0
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 0
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 0
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    MN_02 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) |46/45 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_11* – R – 38/40 (Monmouth) | -2
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    IA_01 – R – 41/43 (D Int.) | 38/43 (Emerson) | -5
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | -5
    MT_01 – R – 43/49 (Gravis) | -6
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | -7
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    MN_03 – R – 43/46 (PPP-D) | 40/50 (Siena) | -10
    VA_10 – R – 39/49 (Monm.) | -10
    PA_17 – R – 39/51 (Monm.) | -12
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24

  406. Redmen4ever says:

    tiny polls

    I kind of like the tiny polls Dan Jones is providing for the Utah Congressional races, when he conducts a medium-sized poll for the state. Individually, the margins of error are horrible. But, through aggregation and modeling, they are informative.

    In Britain (and also Roto-Reuters and Morning Insult in their state polls, I believe), here’s what they do: they conduct a large poll from which they develop a multi-factor model relating demographics to voter intention. Then, they use the model to project outcomes in individual races. By reason of this methodology, they totally blew both pre-election polling and the exit poll in the 2015 UK parliamentary election.

    Jurisdiction specific information reveals information beyond the relationship between demographics and voter intentions, such as the personal strengths of the candidates and the effectiveness of their campaigns.

    So, I very much like the tiny polls of smaller states, and also the generic congressional ballot in surveys of medium to large states.

  407. Wes says:

    Mnw, can you translate this troll speak for me?

    ELECTION BROWN
    September 12, 2018 at 10:09 am | In reply to NYGOP
    A bit of caution. The 7 point (net) increase McSally saw was exactly matched by a net 7 increase in Trump’s JA.
    I am not convinced Trump’s JA is +4 in AZ (which he won by 3.5.)

  408. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Calling StrawDog! The just released Economist/ YouGov Weekly Tracking Poll has the Congressional Generic Ballot at Dem. +3—41/44.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sc59yl78f2/econTabReport.pdf

    I have noticed that the pollsters from universities–Emerson, Quinnipiac, Marist etc are herding at bad numbers for The Donald and the Republicans.

  409. NYCmike says:

    https://www.lawliberty.org/2018/09/12/dismantling-the-administrative-state-wallison-judicial-fortitude-review/

    -Robbie, “CG”,

    This is the last line – “With President Trump’s appointment of Justice Neil Gorsuch and the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court may soon have the votes necessary to change directions. Judicial Fortitude boldly points the way.”.

    All other issues about “tone” and “immorality from before he was President” should be thrown out the window, as mere noise……..if you truly are conservative Republicans……

  410. DW says:

    “Quinnipiac, Marist etc are herding at bad numbers for The Donald and the Republicans”

    These professors view themselves as all-wise, and if they hate Trump, surely everyone else must too.

    Like the reporter on 1980 election night coverage saying he didn’t know anyone who voted for Reagan.

  411. DW says:

    But it is clear that Rasmussen, YouGov, and Selzer are correct on the Generic ballot versus the universities. If the universities were correct, then the GOP would not still be barely holding on to the house in individual race polling as my dashboard above shows.

  412. Wes says:

    DW, Paulson Kael said in 1972 when Nixon was re-elected she didn’t know how because she didn’t know anyone who’d voted for him.

  413. jason says:

    The MSM wants to demoralize the GOP voters so they figure all is lost and don’t show up to vote.

    It’s an obvious strategy, maybe it will work, maybe it won’t.

    Except for Amoral Scumbag and CG, I don’t think most of the GOP voters (ok, I know, Amoral Scumbag isnot a GOP voter) really cares anymore about what the MSM narrative is.

    At least, I hope not.

  414. Paul says:

    Those Siena polls don’t look good for the Dems. Especially surprised by the 8/9 lead for Hurd in Texas23. I’m a bit worried the blue wave may mostly be hype.

    I need a post from Robbie to make me feel better 🙂

  415. Redmen4ever says:

    YouGov:

    What is the current unemployment rate?

    Rep: 52% say under 5 percent
    Dem: 37% say under 5 percent
    Ind: 33% say under 5 percent

    On some things, independents are stupider than Democrats.

    Who gets the credit for the economy?

    Rep: 77% say Trump
    Dem: 63% say Obama
    Ind: credit for what?

    Logically, this means Democrats credit Obama for us STILL HAVING A HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. Possibly, this means Democrats think having a job is a bad thing.

    “Work kills the human spirit. Why not quit today?” The motto of Drop City, Colorado, America’s first hippie commune.

  416. jason says:

    GWB decides to help out…

    “Former President George W. Bush is hitting the fundraising circuit for a handful of Republican House and Senate candidates, joining the party’s push to maintain its congressional majorities.

    Bush has maintained a low profile since leaving office in 2009. Yet as the midterm campaign season enters its final weeks and the party braces for the prospect of a Trump-fueled wave, Bush — who has been critical of the president — is putting his muscle behind Republicans in heated races.

    Bush’s tour will begin Wednesday morning, when he holds a closed-door event in Fort Worth, Texas, for GOP Rep. Will Hurd, a second-term congressman who faces the hurdle of seeking reelection in a West Texas district that President Donald Trump lost in 2016.

    Then, on Friday, Bush will travel to Florida to hold a pair of events for Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who is in a pitched battle for a Senate seat. One of the fundraisers will benefit New Republican, a pro-Scott super PAC.

    Bush will return to the circuit next week, when he headlines a Sept. 19 fundraiser in Fort Worth for North Dakota Senate hopeful Kevin Cramer. The following day, Bush will hold a Dallas fundraiser for Texas Rep. Pete Sessions.

    Sessions, who occupies a rapidly diversifying suburban Dallas district, is embroiled in one of the most competitive races in the country. Sessions has said that he’s eager to campaign with Bush, who has a personal interest in the contest: He is a resident of the district, and it’s where his presidential library is located.

    Then, next month, Bush will host fundraisers for two Senate hopefuls — Josh Hawley of Missouri and Mike Braun of Indiana.”

  417. Redmen4ever says:

    Hurd:

    More proof that the Republicans are racist. They only nominated him because they thought he’d lose. But, the last laugh is on those neo-Nazi, skinhead, uber extremists, because Hurd’s not losing. What do think of that, you transphobic, Islamophobic, Antifaphobic neo-Klansmen?

  418. Wobbles says:

    Those Siena polls don’t look good for the Dems. Especially surprised by the 8/9 lead for Hurd in Texas23. I’m a bit worried the blue wave may mostly be hype.

    I need a post from Robbie to make me feel better”

    Buck up, man….

    There is a lot of good news that we can counter these polls and the new Drudge Headline that middle class income is at an all time high.

    The WAPO is saying Manafort in plea deal negotiations with Mueller. This could be significant, he might say he once saw Trump eating at a Ukrainian restaurant. And we know what that means… collusion.

    And Stormy might give another interview soon, we can expect blockbuster news from that.

    And the hurricane is an excellent opportunity to try to make Trump not only responsible for it because he pulled out of the Paris Accords, but also it’s obvious he will not be doing enough to prepare or handle the aftermath.

    So do not despair, keep the faith.

    60 SEATS OR BUST!

  419. DW says:

    jason, that’s one strategy, and the other one is highlighted on Drudge where they are inciting their radicals in their party to violence. Not sure if the motive is to intimidate GOP voters, or just to put on display the lengths they will go to get and hold on to power.

  420. DW says:

    CNN:

    Trump to blame for issuing a state of emergency in Virginia and North Carolina, when in fact the storm is going to hit North Carolina and South Carolina.

  421. Robbie says:

    Steven Shepard
    @POLITICO_Steve

    Three generic ballot polls out this morning:

    @QuinnipiacPoll: Democrats +14
    @NPR/@maristpoll: Democrats +12
    @politico/@MorningConsult: Democrats +10

  422. Robbie says:

    Wobbles says:
    September 12, 2018 at 11:43 am
    Those Siena polls don’t look good for the Dems. Especially surprised by the 8/9 lead for Hurd in Texas23. I’m a bit worried the blue wave may mostly be hype.
    I need a post from Robbie to make me feel better”
    Buck up, man….
    There is a lot of good news that we can counter these polls and the new Drudge Headline that middle class income is at an all time high.
    The WAPO is saying Manafort in plea deal negotiations with Mueller. This could be significant, he might say he once saw Trump eating at a Ukrainian restaurant. And we know what that means… collusion.
    And Stormy might give another interview soon, we can expect blockbuster news from that.
    And the hurricane is an excellent opportunity to try to make Trump not only responsible for it because he pulled out of the Paris Accords, but also it’s obvious he will not be doing enough to prepare or handle the aftermath.
    So do not despair, keep the faith.
    60 SEATS OR BUST!

    – Poor Jason fraud. I guess when you’re morally bankrupt as he is, the only thing to do is hide behind a parody screen name and attack me.

  423. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    September 12, 2018 at 8:56 am
    Mnw trolls an RRH “Republican” on AZ-Sen:
    Some poster here recently said the GOP needs to “triage” McSally, as I recall, right?

    – I would imagine triage means cutting some of the crappy Senate candidate like Morrisey and Rosendale loose (both Bannon candidates) and diverting NRSC money from them to her.

    McSally is the best Senate candidate challenger Republicans have this year.

  424. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 9:58 am
    I see Amoral Scumbag is hoping the Dems take the Senate too.
    Because he is a Republican and a conservative.

    – Wrong morally bankrupt, unprincipled fraud. Mitch McConnell and his allies are worried they might lose the Senate.

  425. lisab says:

    so, you are predicting the gop loses the senate?

  426. Wes says:

    No, Robbie. The poster Mnw was trolling clearly stated Republicans shogive up on AZ-Sen.

  427. DW says:

    Good news today to go with the Selzer D+2 generic ballot polls:

    YouGov D+3
    Rasmussen D+4

    These are consistent with what we are seeing in the polling of individual seats.

  428. Wes says:

    It’s interesting Robbie thinks McSally is a challenger when she’s a Republican running for an open GOP seat.

  429. DW says:

    The GOP stands to make gains in the Senate, and in the house, control is right now up in the air and could go either way, but it is very tight. No D+30, D+40 or D+50 sort of dream night for Democrats and their blog trolls is forthcoming, as things stand right now.

  430. Wes says:

    Data Orbital has a Sinema rescue poll claiming a lead for her of 46-42. Undecideds are not pushed in the poll—probably because McSally would benefit.

  431. lisab says:

    the gop is way up on cash against the dems

    but that is at the party level, at the congressional level the dems are doing better raising money

    trump’s personal campaign fund is way up on cash, he will have several hundred million to fight the general in 2020

  432. lisab says:

    how much of the dems’ cash is in the congressional campaign funds of solid blue states, i don’t know

    i would imagine a good portion is, but not all

  433. Wobbles says:

    I guess when you’re morally bankrupt as he is, the only thing to do is hide behind a parody screen name”

    Sniff…. so well disguised too.

  434. jason says:

    So Amoral Scumbag, who has the moral compass of a floating turd and makes Trump look like Mother Teresa in comparison, is calling others “morally bankrupt”.

    I love this place.

  435. Wobbles says:

    I guess when you’re morally bankrupt as he is, the only thing to do is hide behind a parody screen name”

    It’s a typo, you idiot.

  436. Wobbles says:

    Hmmmm….let’s try that one again.

    “It’s interesting Robbie thinks McSally is a challenger when she’s a Republican running for an open GOP seat.”

    It’s a typo, you moron.

  437. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:03 pm
    so, you are predicting the gop loses the senate?

    – soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, no

  438. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:06 pm
    It’s interesting Robbie thinks McSally is a challenger when she’s a Republican running for an open GOP seat.

    – Give it a rest. She’s challenging for an open seat.

    She’s not an incumbent, right?

  439. jason says:

    the only thing to do is hide behind a parody screen name and attack me.”

    As we all know, I have to hide behind a parody name to attack Amoral Scumbag.

    I wish I had the balls to attack him directly, but alas, I guess I am just too much of a nice guy.

    Sue me.

  440. jason says:

    – Give it a rest. She’s challenging for an open seat.”

    Pathological liar moving the goalposts alert!

  441. jason says:

    lisab says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:03 pm
    so, you are predicting the gop loses the senate?”

    He just wants that to happen because it will be good for a conservative like him.

  442. Wes says:

    Robbie, a challenger is someone seeking to unseat an incumbent. The broad term for someone seeking office is candidate.

  443. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:29 pm
    So Amoral Scumbag, who has the moral compass of a floating turd and makes Trump look like Mother Teresa in comparison, is calling others “morally bankrupt”.
    I love this place.

    – Always makes me laugh the morally bankrupt, unprincipled fraud thinks I have no moral compass even though I’m the one who has remained consistent on Trump and he’s the one who changed his tune on Trump simply because he won.

    And it also makes me laugh when the morally bankrupt, unprincipled fraud says I’m amoral for opposing Trump for having sex with a dirty porn star four months after his wife gave birth and had a year long affair with a Playboy Playmate while his wife was pregnant.

  444. jason says:

    “Challenging for an open seat”

    Just when you think Amoral Scumbag can’t beclown himself any further, he defies expectations!

  445. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:35 pm
    the only thing to do is hide behind a parody screen name and attack me.”
    As we all know, I have to hide behind a parody name to attack Amoral Scumbag.
    I wish I had the balls to attack him directly, but alas, I guess I am just too much of a nice guy.
    Sue me.

    – Jason fraud, the morally bankrupt unprincipled fraud, is the master of deflection. Deep down he knows Trump is a train wreck who is leading the Republican Party to a wipeout, but he doesn’t want to deal with that so he uses one of his orange hero’s tactics. He tries to get people to look over here by ignoring Trump and attacking the person who is making the argument against Trump.

  446. Wobbles says:

    “dirty porn star”

    She is a dirty unscrupulous conniving disgusting human being. I am just shocked and outraged.

    Oh, and btw, I believe everything she says.

  447. jason says:

    Deep down he knows Trump is a train wreck who is leading the Republican Party to a wipeout”

    You said that in 2016 too.

    How did it work out for you?

    Still can’t get over it, huh?

    See help, it’s probably too late, but there are some good shrinks out there.

  448. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:37 pm
    Robbie, a challenger is someone seeking to unseat an incumbent. The broad term for someone seeking office is candidate.

    – Spare me, Wes, Seriously, spare me.

  449. jason says:

    Seek help it should read.

  450. jason says:

    Spare me, Wes, Seriously, spare me.”

    Forgive his typo, wes.

  451. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:35 pm
    – Give it a rest. She’s challenging for an open seat.”
    Pathological liar moving the goalposts alert!

    – The point I was making was abundantly clear. McSally is the best Senate candidate the Republicans fielded this year, but you knew that.

  452. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:45 pm
    Seek help it should read.

    – I guess mnw will now disregard everything you write because of a typo.

    Ha! Of course, he won’t. Jason fraud, the morally bankrupt and unprincipled hack, is a slavish defender of the nationalist, populist so mnw will not care that one of Trump’s mouth breathing droolers misspelled a word.

  453. Robbie says:

    DW says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:05 pm
    Good news today to go with the Selzer D+2 generic ballot polls:
    YouGov D+3
    Rasmussen D+4
    These are consistent with what we are seeing in the polling of individual seats.

    – Old hotness: unskewing polls

    New hotness: following polls that confirm my preconceived notions

  454. Robbie says:

    Losing the Florida governor’s race would suck (especially since Putnam would have won), but seeing Ron DeSantis’ poltical career end would be a plus.

    Marc Caputo
    @MarcACaputo

    Gillum 47%, DeSantis 43% in poll from Florida Chamber of Commerce,which generally leans GOP. Error margin is 4.4%

  455. jason says:

    I wrote see for seek, and immediately corrected it.

    You wrote Vichey for Vichy because you are an ignorant and lying turd.

  456. DW says:

    Trolls want to appeal to a couple of national university polls when all the individual house seat polls and other national generic ballot polls agree.

  457. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag now hoping a corrupt socialist will win the FL governor’s race.

    Why?

    Because it will be “bad for Trump”.

  458. Robbie says:

    From page 31 of “Fear: Trump in the White House” about the meeting Trump held the morning after the Access Hollywood tape came out.

    “If you want to do it now,” Priebus continued, “Pence is prepared to step up, and Condi Rice will come in as VP.”

  459. jason says:

    “following polls that confirm my preconceived notions”

    Says the poll cherry picking king!

    Of course, watch Amoral Scumbag post a Selzer poll here unfavorable to the GOP within a nanosecond.

    Its garbage now, but the instant it shows something unfavorable it will turn into pure gold.

  460. jason says:

    From page 31 of “Fear: Trump in the White House” about the meeting Trump held the morning after the Access Hollywood tape came out.

    “If you want to do it now,” Priebus continued, “Pence is prepared to step up, and Condi Rice will come in as VP.”

    Poor Amoral Scumbag, still pining for some kind of coup.

    Did Priebus say Jeb! was available too?

    Oh and btw, who do you believe. A scumbag like Woodward of General Mattis? (this should be good).

  461. jason says:

    I bet Priebus never said that, but if he did, for the good of the country, it didn’t happen.

    Pence-Rice would have been destroyed by Hillary.

  462. Tina says:

    Are all the likely gcb, drat plus 2-4?

    Hopefully, the Jebot pollsters are not doing adult or registered.

  463. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 12:59 pm
    I wrote see for seek, and immediately corrected it.
    You wrote Vichey for Vichy because you are an ignorant and lying turd.

    – LOL! Unlike you, I’ve been to Vichy, France.

    I made a spelling mistake just as you did.

    Get over yourself.

    You’re the one who claims to be a free market conservative, yet you are one of the biggest supporters of a populist, nationalist simply because he sticks a R after his name.

    Which is worse? A spelling mistake or trading in your principles as you have to support Trump?

  464. jason says:

    Note Amoral Scumbag swallows up Woodward’s leftist MSM garbage like a maggot on roadkill.

  465. jason says:

    Unlike you, I’ve been to Vichy, France.”

    I have been there too, more than once actually.

    But thanks for showing how really ignorant you are.

    You went there and still don’t know how to spell it.

    You should stop digging, really.

  466. Robbie says:

    DW says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:00 pm
    Trolls want to appeal to a couple of national university polls when all the individual house seat polls and other national generic ballot polls agree.

    – Oh, I see. So anyone who doesn’t subscribe to your view Republicans are doing fine is now a troll? Yawn. You’re one who is picking and choosing which polls you want to believe and not believe.

    National polls, even though the fight for Congress is not conducted by a nationwide vote, are always leading indicators. That’s why we always see the national numbers in a presidential race move a week to 10 days before the state polls begin to reflect the national movement.

  467. jason says:

    I made a spelling mistake just as you did.”

    No, because it’s not a typo.

    The only way to put an “e” into Vichy is intentionally, because you thought that is how its spelled.

    Very different from “see” vs “seek” due to not pressing the k hard enough on the keyboard.

    Now stop lying and GFY.

  468. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:01 pm
    Amoral Scumbag now hoping a corrupt socialist will win the FL governor’s race.
    Why?
    Because it will be “bad for Trump”.

    – Yes because saying “losing the Florida governor’s race would suck” is the same as hoping a socialist will win.

    What f$cking universe are you living in these days?

  469. Tgca says:

    383 Bitter

    Jason praised me? zzzz… Fake praise!

    Jason must be close to deportation and cozying up to my marriage proposal to keep him in the US. I already committed to marrying him IFF he converts to a vegetarian diet. Otherwise, it’s back to the Andes for him.

  470. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:07 pm
    “following polls that confirm my preconceived notions”
    Says the poll cherry picking king!

    – I repeatedly say I follow the averages, but Jason fraud knows that.

  471. jason says:

    National polls, even though the fight for Congress is not conducted by a nationwide vote, are always leading indicators.”

    So which one of these is not a national poll?

    Selzer: D+2
    You Gov: D+3
    Rasmussen: D +4

    You would have been here faster than you could say Amoral Scumbag is these polls were bad for the GOP.

    But since they aren’t, you trash them.

    And you have the chutzpah to say others are cherry picking polls? Hilarious.

  472. Tina says:

    ld J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    3h
    “I can say, as it relates to the Senate Intelligence Committee Investigation, that we have NO hard evidence of Collusion.” Richard Burr (R-NC) Senate Intelligence Committee, Chairman
    View details ·

    I am sure that you can continue to look for Muh collusion in 2019, a fourth year.

  473. DW says:

    Robbie you don’t need me to make the argument to everyone else here that you are a troll. You are doing a fine job of that on your own.

  474. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    I bet Priebus never said that, but if he did, for the good of the country, it didn’t happen.
    Pence-Rice would have been destroyed by Hillary.

    – This anecdote has been reported in several sources over the last year.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/gods-plan-for-mike-pence/546569/

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/05/vice-president-mike-pence-plotted-coup-run-president-condoleezza/

  475. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:12 pm
    Note Amoral Scumbag swallows up Woodward’s leftist MSM garbage like a maggot on roadkill.

    – Poor, Jason fraud. Any news that doesn’t have the orange seal of approval is now fake news to him. But tell me again Trump hasn’t done irreparable harm to the so-called conservative base of the Republican Party.

  476. Tina says:

    Rinse Prubis probably soiled himself making that comment,

    He seemed like a squish and Kelly is a huge upgrade.

    Prubis did well to protect the Rnc server from attack.

  477. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:21 pm
    National polls, even though the fight for Congress is not conducted by a nationwide vote, are always leading indicators.”
    So which one of these is not a national poll?
    Selzer: D+2
    You Gov: D+3
    Rasmussen: D +4
    You would have been here faster than you could say Amoral Scumbag is these polls were bad for the GOP.

    – I look at the polling averages. That way I don’t make the mistake of cherry picking. The spread is now 8.2 points. If those polls are accurate, the RCP average will narrow as other polls come out and confirm them. That said, I’ve read on this board countless times this year Republicans are surging in the generic ballot only to find the best case scenario polls touted here were not correct.

  478. Tina says:

    Breaking

    One reporter had 13 different individuals at the FBI who were feeding him information.

    Talk about more fib and media collusion re the Russian collusion/trump.

  479. Tina says:

    And it starts…

    Trump is complicit for this hurricane.

    He gutted the epa and Cut too many regulations.

    Wp

  480. Robbie says:

    DW says:
    September 12, 2018 at 1:21 pm
    Robbie you don’t need me to make the argument to everyone else here that you are a troll. You are doing a fine job of that on your own.

    – Poor DW. I never took you for someone who couldn’t handle a view that didn’t match your own. Sad!

    Just because I believe the Republicans are in deep trouble and you don’t doesn’t mean I’m a troll. Was I a troll in 2004 when I predicted GWB would win and the Republicans would pick up all four Southern Senate seats? Was I a troll in 2010 when I predicted a gain of 45 or more House seats? Was I a troll in 2014 when I predicted Republicans would pick up at least 7 Senate seats.

    It seems to me the definition of a troll really rests on whether someone is either always rah-rah Republican despite the facts, or agrees or doesn’t agree with the view of the person leveling the charge of troll.

  481. Tina says:

    21h
    Replying to @LindseyGrahamSC
    It is increasingly clear it was the Obama Administration who politicized the DOJ/FBI, not the Trump Administration.
    View conversation ·

    Wow, the Jebots lose Goober.

  482. Tgca says:

    Tina is correct. If Hillary were elected POTUS there would be no Hurricane Florence. Trump needs to take accountability for the damage his administration is causing to the world ecosystem.

  483. Wes says:

    Robbie was a troll when he confidently declared Hillary and Ross would win here in NC. He was absolutely determined Trump would fail here and take Burr with him.

  484. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    “– Poor DW. I never took you for someone who couldn’t handle a view that didn’t match your own. Sad!”

    Can you make a list of people who you consider to be Trumpkins, and devoid of any sense when it comes to polling averages and the “impending DOOM” of November 2018?

    It seems like, other than yourself and “CG”, EVERYONE else has gone on to be a Trump-sycophant.

    How did that work out in 2016, and IS IT POSSIBLE, AT ALL, that the 2 of you are letting emotions cluoud your thinking, instead of all of the rest of us being guilty of that?

  485. Mr.Vito says:

    yougov:

    Definitely vote:

    Male: 73
    Female: 64

    over50: 77
    under50: 49

    white: 72
    nonwhite: 58

    dem: 72
    rep: 72

    TrumpVoter: 78
    ClintonVoter: 76

    Over50K: 75
    Under50K: 61

    Moderate: 58
    Independent: 61

  486. NYCmike says:

    https://twitter.com/ProfDBernstein/status/1039870151733198849

    -“CG”,

    Max Boot seems to have an issue with the defunding of the PLO……..but in the past he didn’t.

    Did you have anything to say on this issue?

  487. NYCmike says:

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/4/majority-millennials-want-live-socialist-fascist-o/

    -Something tells me that my generation has failed as parents to make their children EARN their keep……definitely need to look at what my son gets, and how much he works for it.

  488. jason says:

    I need a post from Robbie to make me feel better “‘

    It’s really a measure on how far Amoral Scumbag’s TDS has gone and how moonbat left he has become (yeah, worse than usual) when a Marxist troll like Paul finds solace in his posts.

    Paul, Messy, Proud Obamacon and Amoral Scumbag all have exactly the same talking points.

  489. jason says:

    Definitely vote:

    Male: 73
    Female: 64″

    Huh, no.

  490. jason says:

    This anecdote has been reported in several sources over the last year.”

    Huh, the Atlantic?

    Wow, great source.

    What did Huffpost say about it?

  491. jason says:

    ote Amoral Scumbag swallows up Woodward’s leftist MSM garbage like a maggot on roadkill.

    – Poor, Jason fraud. Any news that doesn’t have the orange seal of approval is now fake news to him”

    Ok, so either Woodward or Mattis are lying.

    I say Woodward is lying. He has a record of falsehoods and fantasies and is trying to sell a book. Mattis is a man of honor and character with a sterling record.

    Come on, step and say which one you think is lying.

  492. NYCmike says:

    I gave Robbie the “Woodward or Mattis?” question the day after the book came out, and with a link to the statement put out by Mattis himself about the book……and got NO RESPONSE from Robbie.

    Very telling!

  493. Redmen4ever says:

    Whenever the GCB in the high quality, live caller polls differs by more than twice the MOE from the robo-caller polls, Mother Earth sends a CAT 4 or above hurricane to punish us.

    More than three times the MOE, and it’s an earthquake of magnitude 8 or above.

    More than four times the MOE, and it’s a meteor strike of the size that made the dinosaurs go extinct.

  494. dblaikie says:

    If you choose to believe Woodward I have two words for you: William Casey.

  495. dblaikie says:

    Sometimes the RCP averaging of polls make me laugh. And sometimes I can’t believe their incredulity. The latter is true with Arizona. In the average are two recent polls with McSally slightly ahead but way back in June there is a poll with Sinema ahead by 8 points. But it gets the same weight as the recent polls and so the average shows Sinema ahead by 1.4. How can you take a poll seriously, even if it was an accurate poll, taken in June. What a pathetic joke! RCP most think we are deplorably stupid.

  496. lisab says:

    Robbie says:
    Impossible. When I suggested in March 2017 Trump’s unpopularity would be a lead weight around the necks of Republicans, I was assured that wouldn’t be the case.

    Philip Rucker
    @PhilipRucker

    Republicans are openly fretting about losing the Senate majority, a prospect that once seemed unlikely, because of Trump’s unpopularity and some lackluster candidates, @WaPoSean reports
    ———————————————–
    lisab says:
    so, you are predicting the gop loses the senate?
    ———————————————–

    soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo, no
    ————————————————

    well if you don’t think the gop will lose the senate, then you are just concern trolling

    quod erat demonstrandum

  497. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is a just released Texas Poll:
    Governor- Abbott(R) +19
    Senator- Cruz(R) +4

    https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/09/12/cruz-clings-to-small-lead-in-texas/

  498. Tina says:

    John Francois Kerry is meeting with Iranian officials about saving the Iranian deal.

    Paging Sjw Yates, why is this not a lLogan Act violation?

  499. Bitterlaw says:

    506. Zzzzzzzzzzzzz. Walt has complained about every generation since he was born. Of course, they are fossils now.

    Zing!

  500. lisab says:

    No, because it’s not a typo. The only way to put an “e” into Vichy is intentionally, because you thought that is how its spelled.
    ————————————
    robbie wrote, “Vichey! Vichey! Vichey!”

    three times — a typo would be once

    he just did not know how to spell vichy,

    which is bad if you are trying to insult someone,

    what a dum eedeeot

  501. Tgca says:

    New thread!

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