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Scott Leads in FL, McSally Leads Two Polls in AZ, Heller Trails in NV

Haven’t heard from Survey USA is a while, but today they are out with a new poll in Florida that shows Democrat Andrew Gillum up in the gubernatorial race while Republican Rick Scott leads the US Senate race.

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Survey USA)
Andrew Gillum (D) 47%
Ron DeSantis (R) 43%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Survey USA)
Rick Scott (R-inc) 46%
Bill nelson (D) 44%

This poll was done September 7-9 among 634 likely voters. Meanwhile in Arizona, a new poll from OH Predictive Insights has Republican Martha McSally ahead in a bid to keep Jeff Flake’s old seat in Republican hands.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Martha McSally (R) 49%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 46%

This poll was done September 5-6 among 597 likely voters. This mimics a poll done by Gravis Marketing released earlier int eh week that had McSally also ahead.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (Gravis)
Martha McSally (R) 49%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48%

This poll was done September 5-7 among 882 likely voters. The news is not as good in Nevada whre teh incumbent Republican Dean Heller is currently trailing in his bid for another term according to Suffolk University.

US SENATE – NEVADA (Suffolk)
Jacky Rosen (D) 42%
Dean Heller (R-inc) 41%

This poll was done September 5-10 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 3:50 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (67)

67 Responses to “Scott Leads in FL, McSally Leads Two Polls in AZ, Heller Trails in NV”

  1. Tom says:

    First! So sue me.

  2. Tgca says:

    Dos Bebe! Dos!

  3. Mr.Vito says:

    You have Scott as the incumbent, Dave.

  4. jason says:

    Cinco, cabrones!

  5. GF says:

    I can’t recall if it was this NV poll (might have been since it was finalized as a 1% margin for Rosen), but the raw number in the poll sample itself had Rosen leading Heller by just TWO respondents. Make of that what you will…

  6. jason says:

    That poll implies a lot of people are going to vote for Abbott AND Beto.

    I don’t think that much ticker splitting is going to happen. In the first place Texas has straight party voting and BIG ballots, at least Harris Co where I used to vote did. I have a feeling a lot of Rs that don’t really like Cruz will nonetheless take the straight party option because otherwise it takes 15 minutes to vote.

  7. jason says:

    Make of that what you will…”

    Statistically it is meaningless.

    In any case, 17% is a lot of undecided…..

  8. jason says:

    Tom says:
    September 12, 2018 at 3:58 pm

    First! So sue me.”

    We are currently thinking of suing Amoral Scumbag for impersonating a conservative, so you will have to wait your turn.

    However, we are afraid the judge might laugh it out of court by saying its the worst impersonation he ever saw.

    Y

  9. jason says:

    Why a y?

  10. jason says:

    “CBS News chief David Rhodes issued a statement Wednesday announcing that Jeff Fager, longtime division exec and current executive producer of 60 Minutes, was stepping down “effective immediately.”

    Fager is out in the wake of sexual harassment allegations, including a new one on Sunday that was detailed in Ronan Farrow’s piece in the New Yorker that brought down CBS Corp CEO Leslie Moonves earlier this week. This time, a former intern accused the newsmag chief/former CBS News chair of groping her at an office party.”

    Maybe they can interview Stormy again.

  11. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Didn’t “Woe, Woe, Woe Unto You” concern troll make a cameo appearance yesterday quoting some obscure guy on twitter claiming that the Democrats were going to take the Senate? The polls don’t seem to show it.

  12. DW says:

    Siena now polling VA_07, WI_01, CO_06 and ME_02

  13. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Craemer(R) up 48-44 Over Heitkamp(D) in 2018 ND Senate race per FOX Polling.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/12/fox-news-poll-republican-challenger-ahead-in-north-dakota-senate-race.html

  14. Mr.Vito says:

    FOXNEWS

    44-41 McCaskill
    45-43 Braun
    47-44 Sinema
    48-44 Cramer

    http://www.foxnews.com/category/columns/fox-news-poll.html

  15. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #16
    Add: TN in which Blackburn(R) is +2.

  16. Wes says:

    Weird results from Fox. Only Cramer matches the prevailing CW.

  17. Todd McCain says:

    One thing that I think will benefit Cruz, McSally and Blackburn is that the gov races in those states aren’t competitive and ticket splitting is getting few and far between. The idea of going Abbot/Beto just doesn’t seem likely or Lee/Bredesen.

  18. Wes says:

    Also, Todd, those are GOP states with voters wary of helping Schumer become Majority Leader.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    Probably coincidence, but the republicans FOX has winning are the ones for which Trump has done rallies.

  20. Tina says:

    M.Joseph Sheppard
    @SHEPMJS
    43m
    Pretty good senate polling apart from Arizona which is marginal. GOP takes lead in Indiana Missouri North Dakota Texas Tennessee Florida pic.twitter.com/69BXggPp6O
    View photo ·

    He is wrong about az. But no blue wave in senate.

    We are looking at least at a plus 4 gain.

  21. Wes says:

    I wouldn’t be so sure of that, Vito. Pro-Trump outlets tend to be VERY pro Trump. For instance, Gravis, after a banner year in 2014, in 2016 became a very Trump-friendly pollster and began showing all downballot Republicans trailing Trump and often losing even as Trump was ahead in their states. In the end, Trump ran behind most of his ticket mates.

  22. BayernFan says:

    That’s really interesting that the college polls have the generic ballot so different.

  23. Mr.Vito says:

    “I wouldn’t be so sure of that, Vito.”

    Sure of what? That it is probably a coincidence?

  24. Wes says:

    Yes. That it’s a coincidence. It may be, but given how pro-Trump forces like to portray him as the Second Coming in many cases, I wouldn’t dismiss pro-Trump bias out of hand.

  25. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay. I didn’t notice FOX polling to have a Trump bias in the past…

    538 gives it an A rating and a D+0.6 mean reverted bias.

  26. Mr.Vito says:

    “A federal judge appointed by former President Barack Obama on Tuesday struck down a 95-year-old California law that had banned handgun ads at gun shops, calling it “unconstitutional on its face” and slamming the state for its “paternalistic” assumption that its residents can’t make up their own minds about firearms.”

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/09/12/judge-strikes-down-highly-paternalistic-california-law-banning-handgun-ads-slams-states-distrust-gun-buyers.html

  27. lisab says:

    But no blue wave in senate.

    We are looking at least at a plus 4 gain.
    —————————–

    have you considered the ebola outbreak?

  28. Tina says:

    Lisab, I factored in the following:

    Rottie launching his Commie Manifesto advocating a Trump,coup.

    Hillary having one drunk rage incident.

    Bj still “d cing” bimboozals.

  29. Mr.Vito says:

    I don’t understand why the Dems dusted off Obama if they are headed for a blue wave without him. Why risk nationalizing the election with the guy who decimated the party? Perhaps the enthusiasm numbers that yougov reported are correct, and that is the reason.

  30. mnw says:

    Hard for me to accept that Braun is ahead while Hawley is behind.

    Hawley’s current ads are squishy, image-building things, I guess. I don’t like them. I guess he doesn’t want to go straight for the jugular right away, like McSally did.

  31. Wes says:

    The poll may be accurate, Vito, but Fox itself is very Trump friendly. Personally I wouldn’t discount bias from that standpoint in the polls, but maybe I’m just jaundiced because of how Gravis tended to be far friendlier to Trump than to other Republicans who ultimately ran ahead of him.

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    “Hard for me to accept that Braun is ahead while Hawley is behind.”

    Well, there are way too many undecideds in the MO poll. She is still an incumbent polling at 44%.

  33. Wes says:

    Tina, I’ve been reading Nietzsche lately. (He’s one of my favorite philosophers.) I think in his writings I found the explanation for Robbie:

    “He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster. And if thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee.”

  34. Mr.Vito says:

    The Atlantic is starting to look like one of the football plays my father draws up.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_2d0.png

    We may have five active storms by tomorrow.

  35. Mr.Vito says:

    “We may have five active storms by tomorrow.”

    That would be a record for us, by the way.

  36. lisab says:

    I found the explanation for Robbie:
    ——————————————-

    Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain – and most fools do. Ben Franklin

  37. Mr.Vito says:

    Most fools do Ben Franklin.

  38. Mr.Vito says:

    Are you calling Robbie gay again?

  39. mnw says:

    Wes

    I had thought the “abyss” thing was Kierkegaard. I’ve been laboring under a misimpression for a long time, then. I never read either of them, or any other philosopher. Not enuf patience.

  40. Phil says:

    Jason nailed a huge point about ticket splitting in Texas. The ballot is condusive to straight party voting. It absolutely is. Abbott is at the top of the ballot, is overwhelmingly popular, and running against an absolute loon with no money. She is an absolutely horrible candidate. This dooms Beto and I expect Cruz to get three or four points better on Election Day than the polls show.

  41. Hugh says:

    16. We will win them all!!

  42. lisab says:

    . We will win them all!!
    —————-

    not if you lose the senate

  43. lisab says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOdDYS8PNPw

    better video call to prayer brooklyn

  44. jason says:

    Should have aimed higher.”

    Wow, that is an A-hole quality comment from Ready.

  45. jason says:

    Jason nailed a huge point about ticket splitting in Texas.”

    That’s why I like Phil.

    Extremely observant.

  46. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In the 538/ Siena/ NY Times Poll of VA CD-7, David Brat(R) prevails by 47% to 43%.

  47. Wobbles says:

    Probably coincidence, but the republicans FOX has winning are the ones for which Trump has done rallies.”

    Nooooo….

    I would throw myself off the top of the DNC.

  48. Tgca says:

    41 Robbie’s Gay?

    Welcome to the club Robbie! We’re taking over everywhere. We’re like roache!!! We’ve been around forever, we’re large in number, we’re everywhere, and we’re coming out of the cracks.

    Honestly, I suspected earlier when a couple months back you posted either Jason or NYC or one of your other friends here to blow you. I prefer a more subtle approach myself than a direct command…like a wink and an eye shift downward but it takes all types to make the world go round.

  49. Mr.Vito says:

    “I would throw myself off the top of the DNC.”

    So are you telling lisab that Christians really are throwing gays off the rooftops in the USA?

  50. Mr.Vito says:

    “Robbie’s Gay?”

    lisab thought he was. He considered it to be an unforgivable insult. I am just playing around with the inside joke. Same with post 55.

  51. Tina says:

    dopoulos suspects he could have been set up by Western intelligence officials who wanted to incriminate President Trump or his campaign…He’s willing to testify to the House and Senate Judiciary committees about his suspicions. washingtonexaminer.com/news/george-pa…
    View

  52. Tgca says:

    Brings back nostalgic coming out experiences from my yoot…

    All sex, all drugs, all wine, no women
    All fun, all sin, no you, no wonder it’s dark
    Everyone around me is a total stranger
    Everyone avoids me like a cyclone ranger
    Everyone…

    That’s why I’m turning Homosexual, I think I’m turning Homosexual, I really think so
    Turning Homosexual, I think I’m turning Homosexual , I really think so
    I’m turning Homosexual, I think I’m turning Homosexual, I really think so
    Turning Homosexual, I think I’m turning Homosexual, I really think so
    Turning Homosexual, I think I’m turning Homosexual, I really think so
    Turning Homosexual , I think I’m turning Homosexual , I really think so
    Turning Homosexual , I think I’m turning Homosexual , I really think so
    Turning Homosexual , I think I’m turning Homosexual , I really think so

  53. Test says:

    Nice blog you have here.

  54. Tgca says:

    59

    Oh thank you Test!

    Are you a gay conservative or Republican? If so, HHR is the place to be. Gays are crawling out of the woodwork here.

    If you need assistance, see our resident gay expert and liaison to the gay community LisaB.

    See Michael for fashion tips if you like salmon-colored jackets.

    If you’re into flower shows, Bitterlaw can assist.

    If you’re into boring stay at home stuff, SanDiegoCitizen can assist.

    Welcome!

  55. Cash Cow TM says:

    Wes says:
    September 10, 2018 at 4:14 pm
    Walt, Fido has a new ad out showing him shooting the Obamacare repeal lawsuit. Will it help or hurt him?

    Have heard about the Manchin ad with the gun…have not seen it.

    Don’t know if it helps or hurts Manchin.
    ***********************
    I asked boss man for his opinion and he said he doesn’t care…

    …and then told me to get off his lawn.

  56. jason says:

    onestly, I suspected earlier when a couple months back you posted either Jason or NYC or one of your other friends here to blow you. I prefer a more subtle approach myself than a direct command”

    I think Amoral Scumbag is only recently out of the closet, give him a break.

  57. Tgca says:

    …and Test

    Our newest Out and Happy poster is Robbie. He’s a pilot. Oh goodness! Isn’t that FABULOUS!!!

    Now we have many gay friendly folks here too who don’t actually dabble in the…well…you know what I mean.

    There’s Wes. He’s a masseuse! He’s on the up and up career professional so don’t expect any massages with Happy Endings. :-). Just don’t mention Bush to him…that’s with a capital B as in the Texas clan…probably not the 1st thing that comes to one’s mind in Happyland when we think of bush.

    Then there’s NYC. He’s quite the pot stirrer here. He’s so brave to live amongst all our kind in NYC.

    Tina. Our California girl. She’s the one to turn to on breaking news. If it’s big and important…BOOM! She’s on top of it.

    MNW…our mild manner lawyer…differs than the bitter one who works in the Philly burbs and loves flower shows.

    Yo Vito! He’s got a PhD. Can you believe that chit? In what, I’m not sure. Just don’t ask hm to bake you a cake. Oh Lordy, that’ll set him off.

    There’s Messy too. We don’t pay her much attention. Her brain cells seem dead. We think she drinks because she is always rambling on about something that makes absolutely no sense. But she’s part of our lil family here so we welcome her…sorta.

    Lest not forget Jason! Oh dear! We can’t do that! He’ll be the 1st to tell you to GFY! Some are trying to get him deported but I got his back if needed. …and he likes llamas and spells things funny sometimes…like humour instead of humor.

    OMG! There are so many friends for you to make here I just can’t list them all.

    Welcome to HHR! Heyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!

  58. Hugh says:

    Tgca. Nothing for me. Did you move to Philly? A waste if you don’t drink wine.

  59. jason says:

    You guys better get cracking… some dude named jason is just dominating the new thread.