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Dems Leads US Senate Races in MO/NV, Menendez Only Leads By 2% in NJ, Cramer Up 10% in ND

Yesterday, CNN released two polls for the states of Nevada and Missouri that shows Democrats with leads in these competitive races.

US SENATE – NEVADA (CNN)
Jacky Rosen (D) 47%
Dean Heller (R-inc) 43%

US SENATE – MISSOURI (CNN)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 47%
Jash Hawley (R) 44%

These polls were done September 25-29 among likely voters. On the flip side, there are two new polls that will give Republicans cheer starting in New Jersey with a new poll from Stockton University that claims scandal-plagued Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is down to a 2% lead.

US SENATE – NEW JERSEY (Stockton)
Bob Menendez (D-inc) 45%
Bob Hugin (R) 43%

This poll was done September 19-27 among 532 likely voters. Meanwhile in North Dakota, NBC Valley News has Republican up by double digits over the incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp.

US SENATE – NORTH DAKOTA (NBC Valley News)
Kevin Cramer (R) 51%
Heidi Heitkamp (D) 41%

This poll was dne September 17-27 among 650 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:44 am
Filed under: General | Comments (788)

788 Responses to “Dems Leads US Senate Races in MO/NV, Menendez Only Leads By 2% in NJ, Cramer Up 10% in ND”

  1. Hugh says:

    A recap for those of you just waking up. Kavanagh and his buddy continued the their gang raping rampage on a credible woman named anonymous in the back seat of a car. She is apparently homeless as she left no contact information. In 1985 Kavanagh threw ice on a guy in a bar. No arrest of Kavanaugh though he almost killed a guy. Another credible accuser who is the best looking of the ones we can find gave names of 4 witnesses. One is dead likely killed by Kavanagh. One is a lying POS who claims she doesn’t know the gang rape victim and two are not returning phone calls. Nothing new from dr Ford who is hypnotizing herself to try and fill in the details so more to come. And finally the lady who got hit in the face with Kavanaughs unit has a witness who was contacting by a friend of the gang raping Kavanagh and who speculates Kavanaugh was orchestrating a defense which is a crime in North Korea . I think this sums it up.

  2. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    New Monmouth poll of VA-10.

    Likely voters:
    Wexton (D) 50% Comstock (R) 44%

    Democratic surge model:
    Wexton (D) 52% Comstock (R) 43%

    Low turnout model:
    Wexton (D) 50% Comstock (R) 46%

  3. lisab says:

    if cnn has the dem up only 4 points,

    i think the republican has a good chance

  4. dblaikie says:

    I just want to look for one thing on the floor of the Senate when they debate Kavanaugh. Will some one really bring up that he is disqualified from the Supreme Court because he threw ice at a person in college? If so, that will be the low point in the history of the Senate.

  5. dblaikie says:

    sheeple jr. Just showed me more evidence of why I distrust and disregard polls. Just one little point, in the low turnout model why does the Wexton vote percentage stay the same?

    Everyone should know that the guy who is at the helm of Monmouth polls is a Democratic hack.

  6. Bitterlaw says:

    I think the heads of all polling firms are hacks. If they really knew about political campaigns they would be running them.

  7. mnw says:

    CNN MO SEN poll;

    D/R/I = 26/34/40
    Trump JA = +3

    Make of that what you will.

  8. dblaikie says:

    Bitter, I agree. MNW I tell you what I make of both CNN polls. They jacked up the percentage of Independents in both polls. Why? Because they are all over the map and often it is in the polling of Independents that these biased polling jerks manipulate their numbers to reach the desired result for the propaganda of the week.

  9. mnw says:

    By comparison, Remington poll (for MO Scout) showing Hawley +2 over McCaskill was:

    D/R/I = 36/41/23

    (Remington did not poll Trump’s JA in MO.)

  10. mnw says:

    dbl 10

    I agree. Seems obvious when you look at the 2 MO polls side by side.

    CNN’s pollster (name I’m not familiar with) certainly found a helluva lot of independents!

  11. mnw says:

    AZ-01 GOP internal:

    R 39
    D 36

    Only AZ-01 poll released so far that I know of.

  12. Redmen4ever says:

    Surprised Comstock is only 6 points down in Monmouth Poll. This is within the margin of bias.

    CNN’s pollster = SSRS a well-respected poll-taking organization. It is the company that actually conducts the polls for the Kaiser Family Foundation (that props up Obamacare by never, never asking if people can afford the out-of-pocket costs of bronze plans). It also the company that conducts several university polls.

  13. DW says:

    A possible BOOM in the making…Siena finished their first night of polling NC_09. Four of the forecasters say Lean D. It is therefore well below the magic line. With 181 calls complete, the Republican leads by 10 points.

    As to the New VA_10 Monmouth poll, their last poll was Wexton +10, so its headed in the right direction, still a gap though.

  14. DW says:

    13 – there are two ways to release an internal poll.

    1) You wait for weeks until you stumble on an outlier showing you up three points.

    2) You carefully craft your questions in a way that nobody is pushed, and so you engineer a 3 point lead, but with 25% of the sample or more undecided.

    its why the candidate who releases an internal showing the opponent in the lead is almost always a sign of desperation and almost certain loss.

  15. mnw says:

    DW

    RE: my post 13

    According to your chart, every single one of the poll gurus has AZ-01 as “Lean D; Likely D; or Safe D”

  16. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Landmark Poll in Georgia shows Kemp(R) +2 in the Governor’s race and Yes on Kavanaugh’s confirmation at +6.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DpSfYny5MmqSnDUJti6d7ZPDQYXRGWqD/view

  17. mnw says:

    Sheep

    I posted that last night. Beat you for once. Opportunity for a rare photo.

  18. DW says:

    Yes, I wouldn’t have ever considered AZ_01 as a Safe D. Lean D is probably the most accurate at this stage. I would look to NV_03 and NV_04 as possible surprise pickups before AZ_01

  19. DW says:

    Here is a great example of how the ‘Internal Poll’ game works.

    TX_31. The Dem released an internal showing a GOP lead of ‘only’ 4 points. Siena is currently polling the district, and early on shows a 9 point lead for the Republican.

    So the Republican drops his own internal poll showing this…

    Hegar (D) 33%
    Carter (R) 54%

    Tarrance Group

  20. Redmen4ever says:

    September versus October internals: The September internals are about pleading to the party and independent Super PACs. Candidates don’t want to be cut off (“triaged”) or want to be included on an expanding list of targets. In some cases (e.g., Beto), they’re about appealing to small donors.

    The narrative almost writes itself: Incumbent is down a tad, but has yet to consolidate his base. Alternately, has high favorables with independents and needs to close the deal. Challenger remains largely unknown but when undecided voters are informed that he smoked marijuana instead of drank beer when in high school, tend to support him.

    The “tell” is the release of the internal, more so than the alleged margin. The next “tell” is what falls when the money is shaken.

  21. Redmen4ever says:

    correction, “when the money tree is shaken”

  22. DW says:

    I just noticed that the Monmouth poll of VA_10 had an unusually small sample, therefore larger margin of error. At least it was likely voters, but only 374 of them.

  23. Robbie says:

    Seems pretty clear the claim “Kavanaugh is a serial rapist” hasn’t produced so now it’s “Kavanaugh is a mean drunk who lied tot he Senate”.

    Moving the goalposts.

  24. Todd McCain says:

    As long as the investigation produces nothing new, he gets confirmed. Manchin cannot vote against Kav.

  25. Bitterlaw says:

    I think Manchin could vote No on Kavanaugh, wear a #MeToo t-shirt and burn a MAGA hat and still win the election. West Virginians like him and he has always been a lib. Trump is gone after 2020 or 2024 but Manchin can keep directing the pork to his state as long as he is in DC.

  26. Robbie says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 2, 2018 at 10:53 am
    I think Manchin could vote No on Kavanaugh, wear a #MeToo t-shirt and burn a MAGA hat and still win the election. West Virginians like him and he has always been a lib. Trump is gone after 2020 or 2024 but Manchin can keep directing the pork to his state as long as he is in DC.

    – I think this is correct. I preferred Evan Jenkins. I think he could have given Manchin a much better race than Steve Bannon approved Morrisey.

    At this point, I think Republicans should engage in an effort to get Manchin to change parties. They could offer him a chairmanship. Also, there’s no indication him switching parties would hurt him with WV voters.

  27. DW says:

    Manchin isn’t going to switch parties. He is a hardcore liberal through and through and Schumer can always count on him when he is needed.

  28. Robbie says:

    With Cramer looking like a good bet to win in North Dakota, the chances Democrats win the Senate are slimmer. They would need to win any three AZ, NV, TX, and TN.

    I think any talk Cruz will lose TX is not reasonable barring some unforeseen event. Right now, I think TN is the lynchpin. I continue to expect Blackburn to pull away, but she hasn’t. However, Breedesen can’t get past 46% or 47%.

    Assuming Republicans don’t pick up any other Democrat held seats (I think MO is the only other real possibility), control of the Senate comes down to TN.

    However, the prospects of 50/50 Senate are not too promising. If you think Collins and Murkowski are tough right now, wait until the chamber is deadlocked.

  29. mnw says:

    Shut up, Vichey.

  30. Robbie says:

    Wouldn’t a lot of people in the late 1980’s and the early 1990’s have claimed Richard Shelby and Ben Nighthorse Campbell were liberals? Shelby voted against Robert Bork. Campbell called himself a moderate Republican.

    To my eye, there are similarities between Shelby, Campbell, and Manchin. I’d say, especially like Shelby, he’s culturally conservative, but his voting record on certain issues reflects the reality he’s a Democrat and needs money from Democrat fundraisers.

  31. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:20 am
    Shut up, Vichey.

    – The Trump populist troll who thinks we should pay attention to Newt Gingrich has thoughts.

  32. Phil says:

    Robbie, I can confirm that Beto isn’t winning in Texas despite all the wishful thinking in the media and with the elites on both coasts. He will pile up some good margins in Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio and El Paso just like Hillary did. Won’t be even close to enough. Beto is just the next national leftist hope in Texas following in the footsteps of Wendy Davis and a host of others….but, yeah, keep sending him $$ Dems.

  33. NYCmike says:

    The Broken Record, starring Newt Gingrich, is now on the radio!

  34. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:28 am
    The Broken Record, starring Newt Gingrich, is now on the radio!

    – How do Senators Mourdock, Norton, McDaniel, COD, and Angle plan to vote on Kavanaugh?

  35. jason says:

    You forgot Akin and Moore. Their votes will be important too.

  36. NYCmike says:

    Robbie and jason, once again, advocating to abolish the primary system.

    I understand Robbie’s reasoning – J E B.

    jason – no reasoning available.

  37. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:33 am
    You forgot Akin and Moore. Their votes will be important too.

    – When I wrote Norton, I meant Buck. I was thinking of who actually would have been Senator had NYCmike’s crowd not given that seat to Bennet.

  38. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:34 am
    Robbie and jason, once again, advocating to abolish the primary system.
    I understand Robbie’s reasoning – J E B.
    jason – no reasoning available.

    – NYCmike once again advocating for Democrat Senators since he supports no hope deadenders from the Tea Party.

  39. jason says:

    I think Manchin could vote No on Kavanaugh, wear a #MeToo t-shirt and burn a MAGA hat and still win the election. West Virginians like him and he has always been a lib. Trump is gone after 2020 or 2024 but Manchin can keep directing the pork to his state as long as he is in DC.”

    That all used to be true.

    But things are changing. Manchin is on borrowed time, and it shows in the polling.

    He might survive this time around thanks to the deadender who damaged the R frontrunners in the primary.

    I still think he might lose anyway.

  40. NYCmike says:

    That’s correct, Norton, Lowden, Lugar, etc were NOT allowed to campaign and ask the people for their votes, or actually live in the state that is being asked to vote them in.

  41. jason says:

    Yep, NYC here to defend the deadenders again.

    SEND A MESSAGE!

  42. NYCmike says:

    “– NYCmike once again advocating for Democrat Senators since he supports no hope deadenders from the Tea Party.”

    -In the general elections in these states, which voters stayed home?

    The squishes, or the so-called “deadenders”?

    Those who abstain from voting in the general election because their preferred candidate lost a primary are way more responsible than the people who actually vote in the general election for the Republican.

  43. NYCmike says:

    And there is jason, who had ZERO to do with Trump winning PA over Hillary.

    Thanks, and enjoy your mug.

  44. Bitterlaw says:

    COD will always be my favorite Deadender. Gave Senator Coons a seat for life. At least she sent a message. She holds the distinction of being the only candidate to have to run an ad saying she is not a witch.

  45. NYCmike says:

    The take-my-ball-and-go-home crowd is loud and out there today!

  46. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 2, 2018 at 11:36 am
    That’s correct, Norton, Lowden, Lugar, etc were NOT allowed to campaign and ask the people for their votes, or actually live in the state that is being asked to vote them in.

    – I love this argument. Who cares if a candidate would win the general. All that matters is what the primary voters who get their news from Rush and Hannity matter.

    Republicans would hold NV, DE, CO, MO, and IN right now if it weren’t for deadender candidates that won low turnout primaries.

  47. jason says:

    “The centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec is on track to win power for the first time in Canada’s Quebec province, turning the page on nearly 15 years of liberal rule and allowing the party to make good on its promises to curb immigration.

    The business-friendly CAQ is expected to win a majority of seats”

  48. Bitterlaw says:

    Do not put PA-05 in the Dem column yet.

    https://www.pearlkimforcongress.com/clean_up_the_mess

  49. Robbie says:

    She said this yesterday through a spokesperson. Did the laughable interview last night change her mind? If not, I continue to believe she’s looking for a reason to see this nomination go away.

    Allahpundit
    @allahpundit

    Susan Collins: I want the FBI to investigate Julie Swetnick’s “gang rape” claims too https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/02/susan-collins-want-fbi-investigate-julie-swetnicks-gang-rape-claims/

  50. Bitterlaw says:

    Pearl Kim’s opponent is Mary Gay Scanlon:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/mary-gay-scanlon-tough-smart-progressive–campaign-2018/2018/06/06/f821e51a-69e2-11e8-a335-c4503d041eaf_video.html?utm_term=.bf08f71cb1b4

    The new district was won by Hillary by 23%. The old district was won by Hillary by 2.3%. I think Kim can pull the upset here.

  51. Mr.Vito says:

    More Beto

    “I am ashamed of what I wrote and I apologize. There is no excuse for making disrespectful and demeaning comments about women,” he said.

    https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/02/beto-sorry-sexist-theater-critic-um-19/

  52. Bitterlaw says:

    Pearl Kim is also a graduate of Villanova Law School!

  53. DW says:

    53 – Faith can move mountains, but it cannot beat criminals in black robes who legislate from the bench. Kim is a great story, and she would probably win any competitive seat. But PA_05 is not in play.

    There has been absolutely 0 polls of this race, not even a contrived GOP internal poll showing her down ‘only’ 3 points.

  54. Phil says:

    Actually, pretty sure Collins’ call to have #3 Julie’s accusations looked at by the FBI is just to give her that much more cover to vote yes. Of all the accusations this one is the most outlandish. It will also further discredit her if that’s even possible.

    Good sign in my estimation unless you believe this woman and Megan Kelly yesterday had quite a list of things that discredit her as all her claims that don’t at all line up. Pretty sure this Julie character isn’t wild about the FBI looking into her claim. In fact, I’m certain of it.

  55. hugh says:

    Phil. I agree with your comments completely.

  56. DW says:

    The sky continues to fall at RRH…Now they are starting to talk about which Solid R seats will fall to the Dems.

  57. Tgca says:

    Just had lunch. Jadon would be so jealous. Organic plant based veggie dogs (no bread) with sweet and spicy chili sauce, organic tomato and sweet potato crackers dipped in an organic chipotle hummus, and fresh strawberries, blueberries, blackberries, raspberries, pineapples, and peaches fruit cup. Yum!

  58. DW says:

    Someone over at RRH did post a comparison between Toupee Cook’s Oct 2, 2010 predictions and the final reality:

    There were 10 DEM seats rated Lean/Likely R. They went 10-0 R.
    There were 43 DEM seats rated Toss Up. They went 40-3 R.
    There were 31 DEM seats rated Lean D. They went 21-10 D.
    There were 26 DEM seats rated Likely D. They went 22-4 D
    Republicans picked up 2 seats that were rated Solid D on Oct 2: MN-08, TX-27.

    I take that to mean Cook didn’t wish to acknowledge reality that the GOP could do so well…and that he has a Dem tilt to his thinking and his predictions. RRH no doubt takes this to mean Cook hasn’t the ability to see a forthcoming wave of any color, and should move his current predictions further to the Dems.

  59. jason says:

    Thank God I already had lunch or I would have lost my appetite or even worse, barfed.

    My lunch was homemade beef barley (more beef than barley) soup, oven roasted brisket with mashed potatoes, sauerkraut with chunks (not bits) of slab bacon, deviled eggs, and apple pie a la mode.

  60. DW says:

    The key though, is in 2010 there was enough individual polls of specific races to say that GOP was going to do very well. In 2018, there are plenty of individual race polls showing that the GOP should be able to hold off a blue-wave, and that house control is still up for grabs, with the GOP still having a decent chance to hold on.

  61. Bitterlaw says:

    Which will happen first? Tgca will starve to death or jason’s heart will explode?

  62. DW says:

    BOOM

    Quinnipiac has been at the far left of measurements all season, and their prior Generic Ballot poll was D+14.

    Their new one is D+7, 49/42

  63. DW says:

    Some loser was just speculating about the possibility that the GOP could be surprised in an unexpected loss of one of the Dakotas, and almost on queue this poll came out of ND_01:

    Schneider (D) 31%
    Armstrong (R) 55%

    Strategic Research Associates

  64. DW says:

    meant to say, Some loser at RRH…

  65. DW says:

    FL_16 – St. Pete

    Shapiro (D)43%
    Buchanan (R) 50%

    Most of them have this as Lean R.

  66. jason says:

    I love deadender logic.

    We had a perfectly good conservative GOP senator SITTING in Congress named Luther Strange supported by Trump.

    NYC supported an idiot named Mo Brooks who never had a chance to win the primary against Strange and Moore, his only role was to be a spoiler.

    Because of Brooks, who got 20%, Strange lost the primary by 6 points and the GOP lost a safe senate seat in a red state.

    Now if you say NYC was a stupid moron for supporting a candidate with zero chance of anything except being a spoiler, in his pea brain it means I am against the primary system.

    I am not against the primary system. I am against supporting deadender losers in the primary and giving safe seats away to liberal Dems.

  67. jason says:

    Which will happen first? Tgca will starve to death or jason’s heart will explode?”

    Which way would you rather go?

    I rest my case.

  68. DW says:

    A few minor changes:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    NY_23 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 152 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 153 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_10 R | 155 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 157 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    MO_02 R | 158 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_06* R | 160 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    IN_02 R | 162 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    NY_01 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    MI_07 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_31 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    FL_18 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_06 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    PA_16 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 3.7
    NY_24 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    FL_15* R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 177 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    IL_14 R | 179 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_06* R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    MT_01 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 183 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_10 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    CA_50 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    VA_05 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    AR_02 R | 188 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    UT_04 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    WA_05 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    NE_02 R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    NC_13 R | 194 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    OH_12 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.4
    WV_03* R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NM_02* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    FL_26 R | 199 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    PA_01 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.1
    TX_23 R | 201 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 1
    TX_32 R | 202 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.8
    VA_02 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.5
    IL_12 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | 0.5
    OH_01 R | 205 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    NJ_07 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.3
    CA_39* R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.2
    MN_08* D | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0.1
    IL_06 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    MI_08 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    KY_06 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    IA_03 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    KS_03 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | -0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | -0.1
    CA_45 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    WA_08* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.4
    NC_09* R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.5
    MI_11* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.6
    MN_02 R | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Toss | -1
    CO_06 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Toss | -1.4
    FL_27* R | 205 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.5
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.6
    AZ_02* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NJ_11* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_03* D | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 196 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    NV_04* D | 195 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -2.8
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    NJ_02* R | 189 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    CA_07 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.4
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    OR_05 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  69. jason says:

    Dinner will be light though. I am thawing some venison chili.. .with jalapeno cornbread.

  70. DW says:

    And based on actual polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) | 9
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 7
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 Siena | 7
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 47/46 (D-Int) | 48/43 (St. Pete) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 46/46 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) | 3
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 3
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 3
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 3
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 2
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 1
    CA_45 – R – 45/44 (D-Int) | 46/49 (D-Int) | 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) |45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 38/40 (Monmouth) | 43/46 (R-Int) | -4
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | -5
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | -6
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | -7
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monm.) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | -8
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | -8
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | -11
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 39/51 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | -22
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  71. DW says:

    FL_26 – Democrat internal:

    Mucarsel-Powell (D) 49%
    Curbelo (R) 48%

  72. BayernFan says:

    Wow Flake just looks worse and worse. He’s not up to the job. He got played and is getting played. He ought to quit while he’s behind and just resign so a more confident self respecting person can take the job. He doesn’t realise that the Dems are laughing at him. What a pitiful man he is.

  73. hugh says:

    77. I agree, but again barring anything materially new from the investigation, he will vote yes. He looks broken.

  74. Todd McCain says:

    Just cannot stand him; not that he had much of a shot anyway, but how can he say hes a conservative and destroy the Kav nomination. He just sucks.

  75. dylan says:

    77–Such an elite club inhabited by so many mediocre humans. Hirano, Blumenthal, Flake, Coons Schumer, Jeffords (a while back), sanders. What a joke of an institution on certain levels.

  76. Skippy says:

    “The two packages suspected of containing ricin were addressed to Defense Secretary Mattis and the Navy’s top officer, Admiral John Richardson.
    Initial tests were positive for ricin. FBI currently making final determination.”

    White substance is also being tested at Senator Cruz’s office.

    Coordinated attack?

  77. mnw says:

    DiFi says FBI report should not be made public.

    Wonder if she has some intuition about it not being all that good for her side?

    I don’t understand why team Trump suppresses all the news of terrorist activity as much as, or more, than Zero did.

  78. phoenixrisen says:

    #78 Politics for the most part is no-holds barred bareknuckle when big issues or legislation are being voted on. Flake is a nice guy but doesn’t have the thick skin, fortitude, and temperament to be tough when he has to.

  79. Robbie says:

    Flake, Collins, and Murkowski are eating up all of this attention. They love it. Now, imagine a 50/50 Senate where Collins and Murkowski are the deciding votes. Think any meaningful legislation will be accomplished? Think a good judge will be confirmed to the Supreme Court?

    As for Flake, isn’t it an amazing coincidence he and Coons cut a deal on an extended FBI background check and then just happened to spend the next weeks touring liberal policy forums together? And now today, Flake seems to be talking himself into the latest Democrat talking point that Kavanaugh lacks the temperament to be a justice. Last week, he was talked into believing a FBI background check would heal the nation.

  80. dylan says:

    It’s no coincidence that Flake is a ONE term senator. He would not win a primary. Flake is a Fluke

  81. Mr.Vito says:

    WHITEHOUSE: “I think I’m satisfied. We don’t know all the details yet, but clearly, if they have been given free rein to interview whomever they want, then that’s a very good sign. The last thing we want is a sham investigation. I also think that there’s a fairly small universe of witnesses here and a very big FBI, so, yes, I think they probably should be able to get this done by Friday if they really put the effort into it.”

    https://grabien.com/story.php?id=197233

  82. phoenixrisen says:

    #85 Pertaining to Collins and Murkowski, it isn’t about attention. It’s about self preservation of their public offices.

  83. phoenixrisen says:

    #87 That is an eye opener. That looks like first action/public statement of damage control. That poll out of North Dakota regarding Heitkemp has probably got the Democratic leadership and other congressional members freaked out.

  84. Tom says:

    Where is the Alaska GOP in all this? Why haven’t they sent a petition by now with 100K signatures to Murkowski telling her to approve Kavanaugh? They could probably get that in Anchorage alone.

  85. Hugh says:

    Murk votes no and her political career is over. Collins has a tougher decision

  86. Todd McCain says:

    Murk has already won a write in campaign, so I doubt she feels repercussions on a NO vote.

  87. phoenixrisen says:

    #91 — Yup, Collins, Murkowski, and Manchin have the toughest votes to make.

    Donnelley, Heitkamp, McCaskill, Tester, and Nelson are as good as gone.

    One dark horse Senate race to keep in mind. The race in Ohio between Brown and Renacci. With what has happened regarding Kavanaugh, I would be looking at dumping ad money in that race as well.

  88. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “We can’t have that on the Court,” Flake said.
    I caught up with Flake briefly as he left the event, and asked if this meant he would not vote to confirm Kavanaugh, even if the FBI cleared him by week’s end. He appeared rattled, and his handlers rushed him into the stairwell. “I didn’t say that …” he stammered. “I wasn’t referring to him.”

    Remember the old saying: “Oh what a tangled web we weave… when at first we practice to deceive.”

  89. phoenixrisen says:

    #92 — Far different circumstances back in 2010 than now in 2018. Murkowski is not innoculated by any means if she votes no.

  90. Mr.Vito says:

    Isnt Brown an actual abuser of women?

  91. Waingro says:

    BOOM.

    Alberto E. Martinez
    ? @albertemartinez

    According to Harvard CAP/Harris Poll:
    60% of voters support the confirmation of Kavanaugh if the FBI review finds no corroborating evidence, including 40% of Democrats and 58% of Independents.

  92. Hugh says:

    92 she ran against a nut bag. Not likely to happen again. Alaska is about 70 percent male. That nutbag would win today if she votes no. There is only one election calculus for her and that is to vote yes or she is toast. Too late for Heidi so she is a no. Manchin is the only swing possibility. For everyone else the dems made Kavanaugh out to be such repugnant choice if Donnelly votes yes his base sits it out.

  93. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    92. “Murk has already won a write in campaign, so I doubt she feels repercussions on a NO vote.”

    She won the write-in vote because a very controversial candidate beat her in the primary. A substantial amount of Republicans supported her as a write-in. Kavanaugh has solid support among Republicans, she likely would lose the primary and get little support as a write in. She is political toast if she votes against Kavanaugh.

  94. Diamond Jim says:

    C

  95. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “According to Harvard CAP/Harris Poll:
    60% of voters support the confirmation of Kavanaugh if the FBI review finds no corroborating evidence, including 40% of Democrats and 58% of Independents.”

    To rephrase a quote from General Patten: “Mitch McConnell… you magnificent b*****d, you wrote the Senate strategy book.”

  96. mnw says:

    Trump now speaking to National Electrical Contractors Assn about how “I’ve speeded up permits,” etc.

    That’s just excellent! Excellent forum; excellent message.

    Now go talk to Brotherhood of Electrical Workers: same message. (Only it would need to be some sort of private townhall forum to prevent the IBEW officers from turning it into an anti-Trump festival.)

  97. mnw says:

    SDC 99

    Exactly right. She also owes McConnell for saving her adz.

    I doubt she would like to re-live that experience.

  98. GF says:

    101- For the few who may not be aware;

    https://youtu.be/dObTXYa-_n4?t=108

  99. Robbie says:

    Murkowski isn’t up for re-election for another four years. I doubt her vote on this will be a deciding issue.

    In 1987, John Warner voted against Robert Bork. In 1990, he won re-election with 80.9% of the vote. No Democrat even bothered to challenge him.

  100. GF says:

    So good, even Seinfeld had to get in on that;

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhLl85AxinE

  101. Hugh says:

    It’s no longer 1987. Today is very polarized she got primaried and lost for far less.

  102. Diamond Jim says:

    “You have screwed me again, Pennypacker!”

  103. wheelz91 says:

    my democrat cousin in Florida posted this on her facebook page regarding the Dr Ford issue:

    I went for a long walk on the beach to clear my head. It’s beautiful here feels good 59 take a dip in the pool every day.
    What a shame (and sham) the Kavanaugh family is going through right now. I never thought the Democrats would stoop so low. They are all toast in my book. Bunch of hypocrites.

  104. Waingro says:

    BOOM. “Perjury.”

    Matthew Salzwedel
    ? @mrsalzwedel

    Matthew Salzwedel Retweeted Paul Sperry

    “Palo Alto city records show that a building permit for an additional room and exterior door was issued to Ford and her husband on Feb. 4, 2008 — more than four years before the May 2012 therapy session where, she says, she first identified Kavanaugh as her attacker.”

    Matthew Salzwedel added,
    Paul Sperry
    @paulsperry_
    BREAKING: Doorgate: Cracks emerge in Christine Blasey Ford’s ‘panic door’ story
    https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/10/02/building_documents_undermine_fords_exit_door_account.html
    2:33 PM – 2 Oct 2018

    8 Retweets
    20 Likes
    Phil Kopp
    Gary
    P. L.
    #IStandWithBrett
    Brian Fitzpatrick
    #KeepAmericaGreatXX
    Nick James
    Del Griffith
    Max Twain

    1 reply 8 retweets 20 likes
    Cory M Tweet text

    Matthew Salzwedel
    ? @mrsalzwedel
    2m2 minutes ago

    “She did not mention [the second front door] in her original letter to Feinstein in July, or the statement she made for a polygraph exam in August, or a personal letter to Grassley last month. The tale of the door emerged, suddenly, on the eve of her testimony before Congress.”
    0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes

  105. Mr.Vito says:

    Something must be wrong with muh russia and muh gang rape

    NyT is moving on to muh tax evasion

  106. Redmen4ever says:

    We’re getting close enough to the finish line for me to start thinking beyond the horse race number.

    I’ll give a couple examples: NJ – The Libertarian, Murray Sabrin, pulled 3 points in the just conducted Stockton College poll. Murray is a great fellow, but he won’t pull more than 1 percent on election day. Plus, the undecideds, they’re not undecided because they don’t know about Menendez. They’re undecided because they do know about him. Based on the horse race number, I rate this race as Lean D; however, I really think it’s a toss-up.

    TN – I really like the just released NBC/SM poll. It shows the race tied up with 15 percent undecided. The Democrat started this race with near universal name recognition and is, and always has been at his peak (low to mid 40s). Based on the horse race number, I rate this race as a toss-up. I think it’s Probable R.

    BTW the difference between this NBC/SM poll and three other recent polls, and the CNN/SOS poll, is an example of the Margin of Bias.

  107. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Is a backlash growing? This happened in TN last night to Senate candidate PhilBredesen(D).

    Phil Bredesen just got booed for saying he’s withholding judgment on Kavanaugh at a forum he’s hosting tonight in Chattanooga #tnpol

  108. lisab says:

    why did america and canada both get two letters in the nafta 2 acronym usmca but mexico only got one? ezra klein

  109. Wes says:

    Robbie is fantasizing about seeing Murkowski vote against Kavanaugh, I see. It’s not going to happen, Robbie. Murkowski is a savvy pol from a GOP state. She will vote to confirm.

  110. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    An added bonus now is that Trump has been off the front page for over two weeks. He is appearing presidential, particularly with the trade deal with Canada.

  111. Wes says:

    Sheep, Bredesen is overrated. He barely won in a GOP year because of the combination of a lackluster campaign by his opponent and a push for an income tax by the then-Governor. Then Bredesen won big because Republicans punted to focus on holding the Senate seat.

    Since then TN has become one of the most heavily GOP states in the country. Bredesen is the only Dem who can conceivably make it close, but Blackburn will win.

  112. Wes says:

    New Jersey is not a tossup. Menendez may be the epitome of corruption, but lovers of corrupt pols infest Bitterlaw’s favorite state. I should downgrade it to Lean D Hold, but since Hillary isn’t President I see no path for Hugin to win.

  113. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    115. “Robbie is fantasizing…”

    Stop. You don’t have to go any further

  114. Wes says:

    There’s some creepy talk on RRH about using assassinations to end the Kavanaugh fiasco. They’re even arguing Flake should vote no because of it.

    A ghoulish place, that RRH.

  115. Joe J says:

    As a lifelong NJ resident, I’d be thoroughly shocked if Menendez loses. Newark and Camden voters would have to stay home in droves.

  116. ReadyFirst says:

    I think the two front door issue gets explained away somehow. This to me is a tougher lie for Fords lawyers to explain away. Supposedly, the university webpage that had her credentials was scrubbed.
    http://sanandreastimes.com/2018/09/28/records-show-dr-ford-is-not-a-licensed-psychologist-may-have-committed-perjury/

  117. Robbie says:

    Hugh says:
    October 2, 2018 at 3:35 pm
    It’s no longer 1987. Today is very polarized she got primaried and lost for far less.

    – That’s true, but she was every bit as moderate from 2010 to 2016 as she was before 2010 and easily won re-election in 2016. I just don’t see how she’s got much to worry about either way.

  118. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 2, 2018 at 3:48 pm
    Something must be wrong with muh russia and muh gang rape
    NyT is moving on to muh tax evasion

    – Apparently, the NYT is going to hit Kavanaugh for being a party planner for a trip to the beach with friends early this evening.

  119. NYCmike says:

    Watching Robbie call out the NY Times is surreal!

    Old dogs learning new tricks!

  120. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 2, 2018 at 4:05 pm
    Robbie is fantasizing about seeing Murkowski vote against Kavanaugh, I see. It’s not going to happen, Robbie. Murkowski is a savvy pol from a GOP state. She will vote to confirm.

    – I’m not fantasizing about anything. I’m pushing back on the idea that her political career is over if she does vote against him.

    Considering she won’t run again for another four years and already survived a write-in effort, I have a hard time believing she would pay a price in 20222.

    I have made not prediction about how she will vote. I do believe she and Collins would love to see this nomination go away so they don’t have to be on either side of the issue.

  121. GF says:

    119- Can’t be as bad as when B*n* would fantasize about Ron Paul with the posters in his room…

  122. Mr.Vito says:

    I feel like if I were murkowski, this would have a familiar feel to what was done to Ted Stevens. That would not reflect well.

  123. Robbie says:

    Read this letter about Swetnick from a man she met at a bar.

    https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1047224338179608578

  124. NYCmike says:

    I like what Lindsay Graham said yesterday – Kavanaugh is the choice, now, or after November 6.

    Of course, that puts a LOT of pressure on the Judge…..will he want that?

  125. Waingro says:

    U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D.
    ?Verified account @SenBillCassidy
    4h4 hours ago

    A criminal referral should be sent to the FBI/DOJ regarding the apparently false affidavit signed by Julie Swetnick that was submitted to the Senate by @MichaelAvenatti.

  126. Robbie says:

    So Avenatti now has another woman who claims to have seen Kavanaugh spike the punch bowl with grain alcohol.

    No doubt, CNN and MSNBC will have him on non-stop this evening.

    At least with Stormy Daniels, it was clear there was a relationship and money had changed hands.

    This is just flat out ambulance chasing being used to promote his presidential campaign.

  127. DW says:

    What were we just saying about a campaign releasing internal polls showing the candidate trailing?

    IL_12 – D internal

    Kelly (D) 44%
    Bost (R) 46%

  128. mnw says:

    correeetroll? Where ARE you? He knows everything about THIS race.

    Bost “shot a dog once” & has “lots of enemies.”

  129. Cash Cow TM says:

    Honk.

    Walt came in 2nd to last at Bridge today with a total of 3300 points.
    This…despite the fact that on the first of 6 rounds he got 1510 points.

    And 5 more rounds only got 1790 pts.
    Poor bastard.

  130. Phil says:

    Robbie, my guess is that CNN etc are going to tread really lightly on any other witnesses brought forth by Avenatti. They know he has huge credibility issues and they aren’t going to risk undermining their side – not with anything from Avenatti at least.

    I dare them to, however and would be happy to see them try.

  131. lisab says:

    what will kavanaugh be called if he is put on scotus?

    just-ice kavanaugh

  132. mnw says:

    Cow

    I can’t get over your Gov.Justice! I remember when Gov. Huckabee got grief about HIS weight, but this!

  133. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cash Cow was contacted by the FBI about Kavanaugh…did I know any titillating evidence about him.

    I told them no, but I could tell them a lot about what a number of D senators tried to do to me in the back pasture…

  134. jason says:

    I can’t get over your Gov.Justice!”

    How are you trying?

    Did you try pole vaulting?

  135. DW says:

    At least this internal shows the candidate in the lead:

    CO_06 – R-Internal

    Crow (D) 41%
    Coffman (R) 44%

  136. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV Gov. Justice is a heavy weight…

    BTW, speaking of justice, in the first of the impeachment trials in the WV State Senate today, justice Beth Walker 92 years on the court) was found to be not guilt of maladministration by a vote of 32 to 1.

    Former Justice Allen Loughery’s federal trial, the jury has been selected…

    and now suddenly retired justice Robin Davis is suing the legislature for impeaching her.

    Justice Margaret Workman is fighting the charges against her.

  137. Cash Cow TM says:

    OOPSIE…
    Beth Walker (2 years on court)…

  138. jason says:

    who claims to have seen Kavanaugh spike the punch bowl with grain alcohol.”

    I remember parties where the punch bowl got spiked with 151 proof rum.

    But as I remember, the girls helped spike the punch bowl.

    I don’t think there was one girl that didn’t know there was booze in the punch.

  139. jason says:

    justice Beth Walker 92 years on the court)”

    Did you attend her inauguration?

  140. lisab says:

    Emily Bazelon, the NYT reporter who wrote the infamous ice throwing story, is a Yale professor who teaches women’s studies and opposed Kavanaugh’s nomination

  141. jason says:

    I got a nice letter from Melania Trump today.

    She says her husband is doing a great job and I should send him money.

  142. Mr.Vito says:

    According to wiki, Coons went to Yale Law, and was a member of DKE in college.

  143. Cash Cow TM says:

    “October 2, 2018 at 5:15 pm
    Emily Bazelon, the NYT reporter who wrote the infamous ice throwing story…”

    I could give you a BAZELON reasons why she should be discredited.

  144. Mr.Vito says:

    Jason Kander withdraws from Kansas City mayoral race to focus on treating depression, PTSD

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/jason-kander-withdraws-from-kansas-city-mayoral-race-to-focus-on-treating-depression-ptsd

  145. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 2, 2018 at 5:07 pm
    Robbie, my guess is that CNN etc are going to tread really lightly on any other witnesses brought forth by Avenatti. They know he has huge credibility issues and they aren’t going to risk undermining their side – not with anything from Avenatti at least.
    I dare them to, however and would be happy to see them try

    – I suspect that won’t stop Chris Cuomo and Lawrence O’Donnell.

  146. Mr.Vito says:

    Charles C. W. Cooke
    Verified account @charlescwcooke
    The NBC story accusing Kavanaugh of perjury has been updated—without any note, or acknowledgement of that fact—and now includes a reference to the full September 25th testimony that flatly contradicts the claim being made. And yet NBC is still pushing it.
    61 replies 628 retweets 1,245 likes

    Guy Benson
    ?Verified account @guypbenson
    8h8 hours ago

    Guy Benson Retweeted Charles C. W. Cooke

    Even the stealth edit/update omits the key quote of Kavanaugh’s testimony on this point, in which he says he personally had heard about her calling around. https://twitter.com/ag_conservative/status/1046899910120017927?s=21

  147. dblaikie says:

    Well the FBI is going to finish its report either tonight or tomorrow. But I have a question to ask. How long do you think it will take Dem. staffers to leak the parts of the report where they interview anti-Kavanaugh people.

    I say less than 10 minutes.

  148. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Florida Poll shows DeSantis -1 for Governor and R. Scott -1 for the Senate.

    https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Florida-poll-results-election-senate-governor-race-494951911.html

  149. mnw says:

    Sheep 155

    I heard about that FL poll last night, along with the GA GOV Landmark poll, but… I couldn’t find the FL poll.

    The Kavanaygh part of the new FL poll looks very encouraging, as does Trump’s JA.

  150. Mr.Vito says:

    Uh oh.

    Jessica Fletcher
    ? @heckyessica
    Replying to @michaeljknowles

    Trump calendar leaked:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DocT-oMUYAY8Yc0.jpg:large

  151. Robbie says:

    The Trump tax fraud story might have been interesting had it run in 2015 or 2016 when it might have mattered.

  152. mnw says:

    Vito 157

    Funny.

  153. Tina says:

    Looks like Dr. fraud’ lawyah (Krapz) Is upset that the fib did not interview her. She provided a letter.

    I predicted that there is no need to re interview her, given her testimony and the Mitchel Report.

    There are so many holes in it that you can drive a Hummer through it.

  154. phoenixrisen says:

    Oh noes, this is it for Kavanaugh. Truly LIT…errr…I mean it…er…from the New York Times. I’m so depressed. What will we ever do now? Need to go and join Kavanaugh and drown our sorrows in some beer.

    https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2018/10/kavanaugh-1983-letter-loud-obnoxious-drunks-prolific-pukers-among-us/

  155. phoenixrisen says:

    Hmmm, Mrs. Hannigan reminds me so much of the Democratic party regarding the Kavanaugh fight.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ3KCdkCVxI

  156. Waingro says:

    #157:

    “Kavanaugh Nomination
    45% of Florida voters support the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court, with 32% expressing opposition. The poll was conducted during the recent disclosure that Kavanaugh may have engaged in sexual misconduct while in high school and college, and partially after the September 27 testimony by Kavanaugh and one of his accusers before the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

    Time for Rick Scott to CARPET BOMB ads against Nelson on Kavanaugh. The backlash is starting to yield some possible fruit!

  157. Tina says:

    I see we got a Muh estate story.

    I bet his estate was audited at the time.

    Can we get a Muh Russian story.

    Maybe Papadope wore a wire?

  158. Tina says:

    Breaking:

    WE GOT THE VOTES.

    REX retweeted
    John Solomon John Solomon
    @jsolomonReports
    14m
    Corker predicts GOP has votes to confirm Kavanaugh thehill.com/node/409573
    View summary ·

  159. Robbie says:

    Hilarious. Now, the NYT has a story about letter full of hyperbole Kavanaugh wrote to friends organizing a beach trip.

  160. Phil says:

    Well, you got to hand it to the NYT. To the cause they ARE devoted until the very end.

  161. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 2, 2018 at 7:22 pm
    Well, you got to hand it to the NYT. To the cause they ARE devoted until the very end.

    – I’ve got to be honest. I expected far worse this week. I figured we’d get stories that Kavanaugh engaged in bestiality.

    I hope Flake is happy, though. The extra week for the FBI is clearly going to give the process the legitimacy he so craved, right?

  162. sandiegocitizen says:

    Heitkamp is political toast unless she votes for Kavanaugh. Schumer must realize that the several red state Democrats are endangered if he doesn’t get this farce over with.

  163. mnw says:

    Here is a live report from the PDT rally in Southaven tonight:

    The walls started shakin’
    The earth was quakin’
    My mind was achin’
    Now I’m back in the ring to take another swing!

  164. Robbie says:

    We now know what the Democrats will use to claim more time is needed after the FBI is finished with its supplemental background check.

    The Democrats and the press are going to argue it’s not a fair background check because Ford was not interviewed even though the Senate interviewed here for several hours last week.

  165. Tina says:

    She may have already been interviewed. Remember, Frakenstein sent the letter to fib in mid September.

    They added something to Kavanaughs background file.

  166. sandiegocitizen says:

    Robbie you making reasonable assumptions, which a lot of others on the board were also making. In the last couple of days I have been getting uncomfortable with Flake. Despite reaasurances from knowledgeable people. We will see what happens.

  167. Hugh says:

    Heitkamp is gone no matter what she does.

  168. DW says:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nc09-1.html

    Something fishy with NYTimes Upshot Siena poll of NC_09. The Republican was way ahead, and suddenly a whole line of blue votes were added right after one another with no ‘didn’t answer’ results, the lead shrunk, and since then a lot of red votes and the GOP lead doesn’t grow.
    I suspect they didn’t like the results they were getting and so twisted their sampling.

  169. Tina says:

    General Flynn has changed his background on his Twitter to the American Bald Eagle.

    Hopefully, he is “free” of the set up by the coup plotters.

  170. Phil says:

    Heitkamp is toast anyway. Republican voters in red states are now pissed off and motivated. At this point, It doesn’t matter how she votes.

    The only red state uncommitted Senator that it matters how they vote is Manchin. Voting no makes his race a tossup. He will vote yes.

    One last one to watch is Montana. Tester has already said he is a no. The GOP base is just plain mad about the whole sorry circus. They will likely turn out in greater numbers in all red states and that isn’t good for Tester here.

    Finally, this issue seals the Democrats’ fate in Texas and Tennessee. Two more red states where Republican voters are now angry and motivated.

    Finally,

  171. Hugh says:

    To understand these polls you have to consider who is paying for them. You do not bite the hand that feeds you. Number one rule of business. Money talks. That’s why climate research is so flawed and why tobacco companies for years had research refuting the negative health impact to smokers. Nothing corrupts like money, well and sex.

  172. sandiegocitizen says:

    I trust McConnell as a strategist. It is amazing how he turned the tide with a short continuance. With major help from Democratic crazies. Very impressed with Trump’s discipline over last several weeks.

    But it ain’t over yet.

  173. Phil says:

    ……..I doubt it’s a positive for Nelson in Florida.

  174. Hugh says:

    Nelson is toast. Can’t wait to cast my vote for Scott

  175. Ron N says:

    Maybe no reason to interview her because everyone said they don’t know what she talking about. What are the agents suppose to ask her about she had her 10 minutes of fame on tv already.

  176. Robbie says:

    Ron N says:
    October 2, 2018 at 7:58 pm
    Maybe no reason to interview her because everyone said they don’t know what she talking about. What are the agents suppose to ask her about she had her 10 minutes of fame on tv already.

    – I agree. Just watch, though. That will be the talking point the press and the Democrats use.

  177. Tina says:

    Clearly, Grassley needs to hit porn lawyer and slutworth with criminal referrals to justice and fib.

  178. jason says:

    Corey Booker admits what everyone knew.

    “have enough questions being raised”..

    @CoryBooker: “My hope is that… we ask ourselves whether this [Kavanaugh] is the right person… not whether he’s innocent or guilty… but ultimately whether enough questions have been raised…”

  179. JUST cast my absentee ballot:
    Greg Abbott for Gov. +22 points in Nov.
    Ted Crux for US Senate +5 points in Nov.

  180. Hugh says:

    There breaking boys!!! Give them the cold hard steel!!! Charge!!

  181. Mr.Vito says:

    Please tell me this isn’t the Tad Low from that Coons letter…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tad_Low

    “He is the creator and producer of television shows, including Pop-Up Video and Pants-Off Dance-Off. He currently helms Spin The Bottle, a multimedia content company based in New York City.”

    “Pants-Off Dance-Off. Low is the creator and executive producer of PODO, which debuted on the Fuse network on April 18, 2006. The highest-rated show in the Fuse network’s history,[16] PODO combines elements of a dance contest with a striptease. Each episode features five amateur contestants (aka “pancers”) who disrobe while dancing in front of a screen playing their favorite music videos. The show also contains an interactive element, as home viewers have the opportunity to vote for contestants in categories such as “funniest,” “most disturbing” and “best dancer” on the show’s website.[17] According to the New York Times television critic David Itzkoff, PODO not only helped garner media attention and public exposure for the Fuse network (no pun intended), but also promoted an ethos similar to the all-encompassing philosophy of Subway Q&A: “In contrast to the unattainable standards of perfections promoted by celebrity television, ‘Pants-Off Dance-Off’ is meant to be an inclusive experience, one that has already welcomed competitors as diverse as a 58-year-old retired schoolteacher and a woman in a unicorn mask.””

  182. Tgca says:

    Just got home from work and had a delicious healthy dinner that Jadon would die for. Organic arugula salad with extra virgin olive oil sprinkled with organic grated Parmesan cheese and chili lime spice with chipotle flakes. Washed it down with a liter of triple filtered reverse osmosis water and indulged in a half of bar of Kind Blueberry Vanilla and Cashew Fruit and Nut Bar. A whopping 350 calorie meal so I’ll have to skinny on breakfast tomorrow to break even.

  183. EML says:

    Should be drinking kombucha

  184. Tgca says:

    Eww!!! Kombucha is disgusting! Mind as well drink apple cider vinegar.

    Now iced green or white tea, or coconut water is yummy. Mmmm…

  185. Victrc says:

    TCGA sans the fruit bar that actually sounds good. I think the vat of coke I drank at dinner had more calories sadly

  186. Bitterlaw says:

    Welcome back, EML.

    GFY

  187. Tina says:

    Donald Trump Jr.
    @DonaldJTrumpJr
    14m
    The new rules. If you’re a conservative and drank beer in high school you’re unfit for public service. If you’re a liberal and did cocaine in college you should become president.
    View details ·

  188. EML says:

    I’ve been brewing my own kombucha lately, but I do enjoy a nice pint of apple cider vinegar, as it is a good known treatment for my gout.

    Thanks for the welcome as always, bitter

  189. jason says:

    EML is back?

    I hope he doesn’t read any of Tgca’s menus, they are worse than the menu at Olive Garden.

  190. jason says:

    Man, that venison chili was awesome. Almost burned my lip and tongue off but that is what ice cold beer is for.

  191. Bitterlaw says:

    CC

  192. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Breaking:

    “Christine Blasey Ford’s ex says she coached people on passing polygraphs. He issued his statement in a sworn statement.”(H/T: Erick Erickson)

    Dr. Ford may have a perjury problem since in an answer to a question by the Republican lawyer on the SJC, she said,emphatically, that she never coached anyone on circumventing a polygraph examination.

  193. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason drinks beer? Take him off the SCOTUS list

  194. jason says:

    I think two huge bowls of venison chili, three slices of jalapeno cornbread slathered in butter, and 4 ice cold Dreamweaver Wheat Beers, came to what, 1768 calories?

    I will have a before bedtime snack, of course.

  195. EML says:

    As a non Trump voting conservative who has always questioned Trump’s conservative bonafides and who has been wandering the political wilderness for the past 2 years, my fire has been re-kindled by the despicable treatment Democrats have shown to Judge Kavanaugh. It is imperative that we win next month.

  196. VictrC says:

    Bitter.

    I cheated on my 9th grade Latin mid term. Guess I’m out

  197. jason says:

    Just got home from work and had a delicious healthy dinner that Jadon would die if he ate it”

    Fixed it.

  198. jason says:

    I lied about a couple llamas I sold. They were 12, I said the were 11 1/2.

  199. EML says:

    Real men drink room temp beer. Stouts, belgians, sours.

  200. EML says:

    Troegs is what the women drink

  201. jason says:

    As a non Trump voting conservative who has always questioned Trump’s conservative bonafides and who has been wandering the political wilderness for the past 2 years, my fire has been re-kindled by the despicable treatment Democrats have shown to Judge Kavanaugh. It is imperative that we win next month.”

    I sympathize with both with the non Trump voting conservative part and the fire rekindled by the despicable treatment.

  202. jason says:

    Troegs is what the women drink”

    Really?

    I like the Perpetual IPA and the Dreamweaver.

    Will do a gender test.

  203. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    EML
    Glad to have you back here!

  204. jason says:

    I also like supporting local industry, it’s very close to where I live.

  205. Tgca says:

    Beer is an alcoholic beverage. Alcohol is the devils brew. NEVER!!! Just remember, Lips that touch wine, shall never touch mine!

  206. EML says:

    Are we at least all agreed that Corey’s Cubbies need to lose tonight?

  207. jason says:

    Real men drink room temp beer. Stouts, belgians, sours.”

    I like Guiness and Duvel…. but not at room temp.

    Room temp beer is like drinking horse piss.

  208. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    On PredictIt at this time, Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation have risen to 74%.

  209. jason says:

    I never drink alcohol.

    I like wine, single malts, vodka, tequila and beer though.

  210. EML says:

    Tired Hands is the brewery that you should be drinking, but that brings you dangerously close to bitter. Ardmore

  211. mnw says:

    Southaven:

    “USA! USA! We want Kavanaugh! We want Kavanaugh!”

  212. Bitterlaw says:

    I am not a fan of the Cubs but at least their fans did not become a-holes. Red Sox fans became insufferable after the Sawks broke the curse.

  213. Tom says:

    214. Tcga – how about bourbon?

  214. Tina says:

    28m
    ?Dr. Ford’s decade-long boyfriend speaks under penalty of perjury ? – Ford never mentioned sexual assault – Ford never mentioned Kavanaugh – Ford not scared of confined spaces – Ford not scared of flying – Ford knew how to beat polygraph – Ford cheated on him/committed fraud pic.twitter.com/YGwoWzVmwA
    View photo ·

    Do the 3 Cuckateers still say she is credible?

  215. Tina says:

    11m Glenn Kessler
    If you read the letter, it actually doesn’t say she “coached” her friend. It says she helped explain polygraphs to a friend applying for a federal job. But the GOP prosecutor asked whether she helped anyone preparing for a polygraph. Her answer: never. twitter.com/shannonbream/s…

    So, she lied under penalty of felony?

    I think Mitchell did a very good job btw.

  216. Mr.Vito says:

    John McCormack
    ? @McCormackJohn

    NYT story on Kavanaugh’s beach week letter is a dud and also confirms Kavanaugh’s explanation of ‘FFFF’ is true.

    Avenatti conspiracy theorists will be FFFFFuurious. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/business/brett-kavanaugh-georgetown-

  217. Mr.Vito says:

    Link doesn’t work… here is the except he had.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/medi/DoigSsXX0AAb1mS.jpg:large

  218. ReadyFirst says:

    218. Mmmm….tequila.

  219. ReadyFirst says:

    Tom Cotton on Ingrahm just now, “Kavanaugh will be confirmed by the end of the week”. I agree.

  220. mnw says:

    Everybody seen the bf’s letter about the polygraph matter? Grassley is not amused.

    No wonder the DEMs are pivoting from sexual assault to judicial temperament.

  221. Mr.Vito says:

    DAMN. THEY FINALLY GOT HIM.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/sinister-battle-brett-kavanaugh-over-202425923.html

    (I think… halfway through I fell asleep)

  222. Bitterlaw says:

    You made it through half of the article? Damn. I could not get that far.

  223. Tina says:

    Jack Posobiec ??
    @JackPosobiec
    47s
    At the Trump rally tonight when Trump brought up Blasey Ford the crowd broke out in chants of “Lock Her Up! Lock Her Up!”

  224. Tina says:

    MITCHELL: Have you ever had discussions with anyone, beside your attorneys, on how to take a polygraph?

    FORD: Never.

    MITCHELL: And I don’t just mean countermeasures, but I mean just any sort of tips, or anything like that.

    FORD: No. I was scared of the test itself, but was comfortable that I could tell the information, and the test would reveal whatever it was going to reveal. I didn’t expect it to be as long as it was going to be, so it was a little bit stressful.

    MITCHELL: Had — have you ever given tips or advice to somebody who was looking to take a polygraph test?

    FORD: Never.

    Perjury Trap.

  225. mnw says:

    Lindsey on Hannity pretty forceful arguing that “The Kavanaugh bump is real.”

  226. JeffP says:

    It looks like Dr Faux lied about a lot.

    If I was a GOP Senator I would carry a gun and hire personal body guards until a week or two after I noted for Judge K.

    Seriously

  227. dblaikie says:

    Single Malt is not alcohol, it is the water of life. If you doubt me, go to a first class liqueur store put down around 120 bucks and taste a 15 year old Highland Park. Drink it neat, or if you must a few cubes of ice. Enjoy.

  228. SoHope says:

    Did $60 in flights of 3 different top shelf single malt scotches…tasted like you would expect…gross

  229. dblaikie says:

    238 You need to be investigated.

  230. lisab says:

    we recently met a couple from kentucky

    i now prefer bourbon

  231. janz says:

    MITCHELL: Had — have you ever given tips or advice to somebody who was looking to take a polygraph test?

    Tina, I don’t remember Mitchell asking that question. If so, Ford indeed lied — one of many. That statement about the 2nd door has also been researched and shown to be a total fabrication, as has her title of “doctor,” as she didn’t finish her field studies or get a license. Of course there is the “fear of flying” meme, the inconsistencies in other statement, and reluctance to turn over her therapy notes — which is the only tangible evidence she really has.

  232. Tina says:

    Margot Cleveland
    @ProfMJCleveland
    3h
    Please tell me that Ford’s friend she helped with the polygraph for the FBI isn’t involved in Spygate….because otherwise I think we’re all done. pic.twitter.com/hLffSak75h
    View photo ·

    And did not help tap trump tower.

  233. lisab says:

    Anonymous source confirms that in 1991 Brett Kavanaugh may have returned two videotapes to Blockbuster without fully rewinding them.

  234. ReadyFirst says:

    Don’t know if this Gillum/Desantis 46-45 mason dixon poll was posted yet, so here it is.
    http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/02/poll-its-a-tied-race-for-florida-governor/

  235. GF says:

    243- Clearly, Brett isn’t kind.

    240- I’ve shifted to Rye from gin over the years. I’ll drink Bourbon, but Rye is where it’s at for me (and very patriotic, I might add, given Rye’s history as Colonial Whiskey).

  236. ReadyFirst says:

    Mmmm…..bourbon.

  237. Mr.Vito says:

    YOWZA!

    Dershowitz on Hannity: The real villain of this is the American Civil Liberties Union… They are now saying that suspicion is enough; that presumptions ought to be in favor of guilt; that if there’s doubt, you convict… During the McCarty period, they never said when people were fired from their jobs, “This is just a job interview.” They required proof by a high standard.

    But when it comes to this, they are making a fortune of money– their budget has gone from 20 million to 130 million– because they’ve abandoned civil liberties and have ONE campaign

    GET TRUMP, GET HIS APPOINTMENTS, GET HIS NOMINEES

  238. Mr.Vito says:

    The Reagan Battalion
    ?Verified account @ReaganBattalion
    4h4 hours ago

    The Reagan Battalion Retweeted Kyle Griffin

    Drinking beer is no crime, unless you get behind the wheel, and make an accident, and attempt to flee the scene of the crime.

    Imagine if a guy like that ran for the United States Senate.

  239. Mr.Vito says:

    At least he stopped short of leaving a girl to die at the scene.

  240. EML says:

    Lock her up

  241. Bitterlaw says:

    Chanting “Lock her up” makes the GOP look like the insensitive anti-woman party the Leftists accuse us of being. I want Dr. Ford to be forgotten and Kavanaugh to be confirmed. I think it is likely that she was assaulted at some point. I do not believe that Kavanaugh did it.

  242. JeffP says:

    Yep don’t like the lock her up chant…not good…

    The Trump coalition has been ignited though. We civilized people hate injustice. Judge K has become the October surprise of surprises though. I see holds in the Senate now except maybe WV NV. Flips in IN, FL,ND, MO as hard right and NJ, MT, OH, MI, as toss ups now.

  243. JeffP says:

    I meant WI not MI. I don’t think Brown in OH is locked up after this…I know some will disagree…but Trump carried Ohio by large margins in rural areas. If he does a Rally there it is in play.

  244. Wes says:

    I think Dems have seriously hurt themselves with their attempts to destroy Kavanaugh. This will likely backfire quite spectacularly in November.

  245. Wes says:

    JeffP, Dems already hold WV. If Morrisey loses, it won’t be a flip.

  246. DW says:

    Wes, what do you make of NC_09? Siena is trying to poll them right now, but they apparently cannot get Dems to answer the phone, but they don’t want to portray the race as the Republican running away with it either. They adjusted their sample, and yet they cannot do anything other than put up a warning about the nature of the results.

  247. DW says:

    Closer than the recent Siena (-10) and PPP-D (-13), but still a gap:

    MN_03 – SUSA

    Phillips (D) 49%
    Paulsen (R) 44%

  248. Wes says:

    I do have anecdotal evidence Harris is campaigning hard and gaining some traction, DW. For instance, he’s managed to get my female companion along with a number of other young, attractive women to barnstorm the district and get people to sign up for absentee voting to benefit his campaign.

    Kavanaugh has really intensified the Republicans in the area. There is an aura of increased GOP confidence in the race.

    At the same time, Harris, while not a bad candidate per se, isn’t the best fit for the district while the Dem has a pretty good moderate Dem profile.

    I still have the race as Lean D Pickup, but Harris is making a game effort of it and may pull off the upset—especially if Dems continue to undermine themselves on the Kavanaugh fiasco.

  249. DW says:

    Thanks Wes. Siena does seem to be finding the Republicans in NC_09 more than eager to pick up the phone and take the survey. They have made 10,850 phone calls, and received 301 responses.

    Compare this to MI_08 where they had to make 46,951 calls to get only 433 responses.

    Of course if I was a campaign manager, the moment I learned Siena was scheduled to poll my candidate’s district, I would send out an e-mail blast to my candidate’s supporters telling them pick up the phone and support our candidate.

  250. JeffP says:

    Wes…yea I know I did not communicate that well at all. Noticed some typos after my hand accidentally hit submit button on my iPad:). I meant that NV WV possibly might flip r to d & d to r. More likely NV than WV for sure.

  251. JeffP says:

    Injustice of Judge K + coalesced GOP weeks before midterm = nothing close to a blue wave.

  252. sandiegocitizen says:

    252. Considering the nasty and hateful things that are being said about Kavanaugh, am not surprised at anger being expressed by Republicans. Why is outrage only a one way street? Democrats can threaten and intimidate, but if Republicans express their anger — they are harshly condemned. I am tired of the double standard and quivering Republicans.

  253. mnw says:

    Emerson polls: KS:

    Kobach (R) +1

    Yoder (R) -6

    KS-02 (R) -3

    Trump rally in KS tonight. Emerson is the worst pollster in America, but poor polling is better than no polling. You can read about the new Emerson poll at Breitbart under Trending Now.

  254. Wes says:

    In a new poll out of the Sewer State, FDU says Menendez leads Hugin 43-37 with mostly Dem undecideds. I can buy that. I’ve never thought Republicans had a realistic chance in the Land of Cesspools.

  255. mnw says:

    Sheep 263

    Having scooped me on polls for months, you’re now going to bigfoot me on economic news too?

    There are so many “Help Wanted” signs outside local businesses, I bet I could get a job in half an hour, btw.

  256. DW says:

    mnw, unless those Emerson polls were updated from a few days ago, the sample sizes of the house races were under 250. And they were registered, not likely voters.

  257. sandiegocitizen says:

    When John McCain died, the Democrats went put of their way to praise him. Yet only a short time later, Bill Maher made the ugly comment that Graham “needs the stabilizing influence of his dead boyfriend” in reference to McCain. Democrats laughed and though it was funny. A “lock her up” chant pales in comparison.

  258. DW says:

    A Yoder internal yesterday had him up three, for what its worth:

    KS_03

    Davids 40%
    Yoder 43%

    Remington.

  259. DW says:

    Wes, if New Jersey was suddenly an independent country, it would only take a couple of years before Venezuela would be a nicer place to live.

  260. Tina says:

    The scary thing about these trump rallies are the number of attendees, inside the arena, and outside. In many cases, his crowds are even bigger than they were in 2016.

    He is mobilizing Rs, who appear to be united.

    Even many of the Jebots and Never Trumpers have gotten off of the Lido Deck, except for the Socialist that remains there.

  261. dblaikie says:

    “but poor polling is better than no polling” How can you say that? Poor polling leads to more confusion than no polling.

    Concerning that FDU poll Menendez’s 43% is terrible, if true. If true he will loose. Undecided dems. are people who don’t want to vote for Menendez with all his corruption but can’t quite admit that they may vote for a rep.

    So Wes, I think that Hugin may have lucked out. In a deep blue state he gets to run against a person who should be in prison and who is an embarrassment to anyone in New Jersey who has a brain. There is a good chance he might win.

  262. mnw says:

    DW 268

    I saw those KS polls for the first time this morning myself. I only know what Breitbart posted. They could be stale for all I know, but I don’t recall seeing them here.

    Emerson, 36 hours before Jones got elected to the Senate: “At this point, Jones has no realistic path to victory.”

  263. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #267- mnw
    Just faster fingers; probably less arthritis since I am a few years your junior.

    Farleigh Dickenson just released a NJ Senate poll which shows Menendez(D) +6. What do you think of this race as a sleeper?

    PredictIt is at 75% for confirmation.

  264. Tina says:

    Looks like one of the coup plotters against Kavanaugh is Edsel Fords Bff, a former Fib agent out of SdNy (McCabe land).

    Her name was not redacted in Grassleys letter to Krapz and Broom Schyster.

    Notice how Broom Schyster sent a letter to Wrong Wray and Boente of the Fib, trying to use his contacts

  265. dblaikie says:

    Media is trying to move away from Kavanaugh (beginning to realize it is a big loser) and instead piggy back off of NYT’s tax stuff that is 20 years old. You can’t make this stuff up.

  266. jason says:

    I saw my cousin jaywalking in 1993 and I didn’t report him.

  267. mnw says:

    dbl 273

    My comment was tongue in cheek.

  268. dblaikie says:

    Good. Too early for me to see “tongue and cheek.”

  269. jason says:

    “Edsel Ford, Krapz and Broom Shyster”

    And poor Messy wants to compete with “Kavanope”.

    Messy brought a box cutter to fight with Tina’s M-60
    when it comes to nicknames.

  270. mnw says:

    Sheep

    I know nothing about the Garden State. I don’t think I’ve ever been there, not even the Newark Airport.

    I tend to find Wes’ analysis in 266 persuasive. Voters seem less concerned about financial scandals than they once were. That might be my imagination, though.

  271. mnw says:

    Old story: Bribes!

    New Hotness: Sex!

  272. jason says:

    I bet I could get a job in half an hour, btw.”

    I am trying, but the job market for llama husbandry is still pretty weak.

    Amos Stoltzfuss said if I helped out with the milking he would give me cart full of good manure a week as payment. I am holding out for half a cart.

  273. mnw says:

    I can remember when Sherman Adams’ vicuna coat dominated our nation’s news.

    No-one else here will– except Walt, maybe. I also watched the Army/McCarthy hearings on live TV, because my grandparents had it on. I thought it was boring.

  274. jason says:

    Chanting “Lock her up” makes the GOP look like the insensitive anti-woman party the Leftists accuse us of being.”

    Sorry. This woman is a fraud and a liar and she is putting the country through hell for weeks.

    A little payback is due.

    “Lock her up” pales in comparison for what she has done to Kavanaugh’s reputation and to his family.

  275. DW says:

    Ras Generic Ballot is D+5 this morning

  276. jason says:

    If anyone is interested, I know a lot about vicunas and guanacos, not just llamas.

  277. Bitterlaw says:

    Walt remembers the Ramses – Moses debates.

  278. jason says:

    Menendez will win, unfortunately.

  279. jason says:

    Chanting “lock her up” is not anti-women btw.

    Any more than it was when directed at Hillary.

    I think Bitter gets a little wobbly in the AM for lack of a good breakfast.

    After putting away a ham steak, 3 scrambled eggs with cheese and bacon, pancakes with butter and real maple syrup, hash browns, toast and coffee, I am ready to take on the MSM, trolls and Amoral Scumbags.

  280. jason says:

    Of course, breakfast WAS hours ago, there is the pleasant aroma of a meatloaf wafting through the house so looking forward to lunch.

  281. mnw says:

    DW

    Not seeing “the Kavanaugh effect” in the RAS GCB, then.

    I’m skeptical about “the K effect” until & unless I see more polling confirmation. What evidence of it there is is scanty & problematical. Heitkamp was already losing BEFORE the Freakfest, & McCaskill is still hanging in there.

  282. jason says:

    For those who want to sneer at my meatloaf, GFYS.

    This is not regular diner style meatloaf, it is made of ground lamb, pork and veal, not hamburger meat. It has onions, garlic, parsley and jason’s secret spice mix. And a little beer for flavor.

    Anyone who dared pour ketchup on this masterpiece would immediately be flogged.

  283. jason says:

    Walt remembers the Ramses – Moses debates.”

    I don’t know how he got elected to public office.

    Rumor is that he saw Cain kill Abel and didn’t report it.

  284. mnw says:

    NRCC reports a FR surge after the Freakfest, so there’s that, fwiw.

  285. Tina says:

    Bitter has a point, but it is a partisan event, a rally.

    Trump did an initiation of Edsel Ford.

    Can be found at gateway pundit.

  286. DW says:

    Despite two epic polling failures by Siena in the NY primary, NY Times decided to hire them for their election year gimmick, to ‘live’ poll races where people can sit there and watch the results tally up.

    Historically, Siena only polled races in NY, with results that could be described as tilting left. But all these states and their competitive congressional districts they have never polled before.

    So I am going summarize what they have found so far. Polling results are in the order of R/D.

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:

    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.
    CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.
    PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.
    AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.
    MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.
    CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.
    MN_02 – 39/51*. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.
    MI_11 – 33/51*. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.
    NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.
    CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.
    CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.
    KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.
    IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.
    KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.
    IL_06 – 39/40. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.
    TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.
    NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:

    NC_09 – 47/41*. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.
    WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.
    CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.
    NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.
    NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.
    KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.
    MI_08 – 46/45*. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.
    ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.
    TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.
    VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.
    OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.
    IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.
    VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.
    TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.
    FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.
    WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.
    NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.
    WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.
    NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R.

    *In progress

    Given their historic leftward tilt, and given many of their Dem favorable polls are to the left of Dem internals, and given the fact that Siena badly botched NY primary races, I would not consider them reliable.

    Even so, Siena has not found any sort of blue-wave in their results. The above are about 75% of the competitive seats, and even Siena finds them evenly split. This could be enough to get the 23 flips to barely capture house control, but its no blue-wave, and if they turn out to be left listing like they usually are, the data here shows Dems might not even flip the house, falling just short.

  287. mnw says:

    DW

    Thx for the summary. The Wise Men treat those as Holy Writ.

    Btw, I took a deep dive into the Emerson KS polls. You’re right. They’re trash. Emerson describes some sort of argle-bargle about mixing in “e-samples” which were “provided by another pollster”!

  288. Robbie says:

    It often takes a week to 10 days for events to be fully accounted for in polling. By the start of next week, we should have a pretty good idea whether Kavanaugh’s treatment has engaged Republican voters.

    So far, there’s anecdotal evidence, but not much else that Kavanaugh has helped. Many will point to the Q generic poll as evidence it has helped, but Republicans are still at just 42% and that was a bounce back from a number in September that was hard to believe.

  289. mnw says:

    Shut your stupid piehole, Vichey.

    Folks, let’s not turn another perfectly good day into a threadpig troll fest again.

  290. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Rasmussen(less) today 49/50

  291. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Suffolk poll of Arizona finds wide gap between the state’s two headline races: Dem Sinema leads 45-42 in Senate race, & GOP Ducey leads 50-38 in governor’s race

    KAVANAUGH DIVIDE – SUPRC/Arizona Republic poll of likely midterm voters shows 37-36 edge to Ford on who is telling the truth. Support of nomination tips to Kavanaugh 49-42, along party lines: GOP supports 92-4, Dems oppose 79-11 and Indies oppose 49-37.

    FLAKE NOT MELTING AMONG DEMOCRATS – SUPRC/Arizona Republic poll of likely Arizona midterm voters shows Jeff Flake fav/unfav under water at 30-47 overall. Among Dems. 44-28, among Repubs 20-66, among Indies 26-44.

  292. JeffP says:

    First mid term impact on electorate…

    Obama Coalition Impact < Trump Coalition Impact

    And I don't even think it is close.

  293. dblaikie says:

    As far as a Kavanaugh effect showing in the generic poll they will have to change their models first regarding voter enthusiasm. All their models use a blue wave scenario in regards to this. Change the model and low and behold an 8 point generic poll will turn into a very close poll.

  294. Redmen4ever says:

    when it rains, it pours.

    Two more polls (Fairly Ridiculous and Voice of the People) showing Hugin within striking distance.

  295. Hugh says:

    Feeling better about republicans ready to fight versus fold as in the bush Obama years I want to pick three close senate races to invest a decent sum of money. One is Rick Scott. The other two are up in the air. Any thoughts?

  296. JeffP says:

    Hugh…defeat sleepy Joe D in Indiana!

  297. JeffP says:

    I can’t remember Arizona being a split ticket state. It is not going to happen.

  298. Hugh says:

    Sleepy joe is a lightweight. I lived in south bend for 10 years his daughter Molly and my daughter were grade school friends. I would love to see him go down

  299. Greymarch says:

    Prediction: 51-49 in favor of Kavanaugh. Collins is a no. Flake is a yes, Murkowski is a yes, Manchin is a no.

  300. DW says:

    Manchin has to vote yes. So little to risk voting yes, so much to risk voting no.

  301. Bitterlaw says:

    I think all Republican Senators vote to confirm. All Democrats vote no. 3 weeks and many words wasted to get to the same result.

  302. Todd McCain says:

    Manchin will vote YES as long as he is not the deciding vote.

  303. Redmen4ever says:

    If K. has 50 votes from the Rs, he will fetch Manchin’s vote. If he doesn’t have 50 votes from the Rs, things will get very interesting for the throwback Democrat from West Virginia.

  304. DW says:

    I am all ears…tell me what Manchin gains by voting No?

  305. Todd McCain says:

    PA 01:

    Monmouth

    Fitzpatrick 50
    Wallace 46

    Good poll for the GOP in what is considered a tossup race.

  306. DW says:

    All the signaling we are hearing suggests all the GOP senators are Yes. So what does Manchin get for voting no?

  307. CG says:

    Any Democrat that votes yes on Kavanaugh will see significant numbers of people in their party not vote for them in November.

    For Manchin, Heitkamp, and perhaps others, it will come down to mathematical determination as to which vote hurts less.

    (All the more reason that it has been better to draw this out longer, if you want to approach it from a partisan Republican perspective)

  308. mnw says:

    Hugh

    Hawley seems obvious.

    MO is anything but nailed down. With Cramer (done deal) & Hawley, the GOP can absorb losses in NV & AZ & perhaps still have a narrow majority.

  309. mnw says:

    Todd M.317

    PA-01

    Considering what a filthy antisemite Wallace is, I’m surprised it’s that close. (I realize Wallace can self-fund.)

  310. Todd McCain says:

    I always said I think we split AZ/NV. I don’t think we lose both. With Ducey winning a landslide, perhaps he takes McSally along for the ride.

  311. Hugh says:

    I’ll wait for one more poll on MO. I really think he wins easy. However if still close he is a great choice. I was leaning towards three of the four fl az in and mt but want to see one more round of polls.

  312. NYCmike says:

    I predict we win both AZ and NV.

  313. NYCmike says:

    ND
    MO
    FL

    WV
    IN
    OH
    WI

    MN
    MI
    NJ

  314. Robbie says:

    I don’t think it will have any impact on how Flake, Collins, and Murkowski vote, but why did Trump decide to attack the accuser last night? The momentum seems to be in Kavanaugh’s favor so why roll a grenade into the room?

  315. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 3, 2018 at 10:13 am
    Shut your stupid piehole, Vichey.
    Folks, let’s not turn another perfectly good day into a threadpig troll fest again.

    – The Trump populist troll who disappeared for years and thinks we should pay attention to Newt Gingrich has some thoughts.

  316. CG says:

    Because Trump is a psychopath who cannot help himself. It probably won’t have any impact on the Senate confirmation vote, but it will hurt Republicans in House races.

  317. mnw says:

    McCaskill just toured “a closed nail factory” in Poplar Bluff, MO.

    I guess the idea is that Zero would’ve kept it open*? That the jobless are hurting?

    A closed nail factory? Really?

    *Why not? three iii’s has explained that “Gore would’ve prevented 911,” after all.

  318. Todd McCain says:

    It wont hurt anyone….Dr. Ford’s testimony has more holes than Swiss cheese yet no one wants to say it…..

  319. Bitterlaw says:

    321 I have a friend who lives in PA01. He is Jewish (emigrated to the US from the Soviet Union when he was 13). He says Wallace can rely on self-hating Jewish Democrats to vote for him. My friend is a huge Trump supporter.

  320. mnw says:

    Looks like Bost didn’t shoot quite enuf dogs, huh, correee?

  321. DW says:

    Missouri has shifted to the right more than the media wishes to acknowledge. Take 2016 and the POTUS race. Nothing indicated Hillary would be competitive in MO, and yet when the polls closed at 8 pm, only Fox News called it right away for Trump.

    Other networks waited until 10:00 pm (two hours!) before making the call.

    Trump won MO by 19 points, a stronger win than AK or MS.

  322. CG says:

    Attacking her serves no political purpose (especially since Trump falsely described her inconsistencies). Kavanaugh is already in line to be confirmed. The base already supports him. There should not even be a need to talk about Ford. If he isn’t confirmed, she isn’t going to get the Supreme Court seat.

    It’s just going to rally the left more to vote. I know that some people here are in denial about that and are expecting a “red wave” across the board.

    Kavanaugh will be confirmed. There will not be a “red wave.” Both can be true.

  323. CG says:

    As far as I know, Bost only shot his neighbor’s dog years ago. He probably shouldn’t have done it.

    If he winds up losing, it’s totally on mnw.

  324. Wes says:

    I’m going to say it now: Hugin will not defeat Menendez.

  325. Todd McCain says:

    VPP:

    Menendez 35
    Hugin 34

    Poll is worthless; too many undecided.

  326. mnw says:

    DW

    MO sure has shifted to the right.

    Been a long time since we heard ANYTHING from the Carnahan infestation.

    DEMs are down to 2 AA cogresscritters* and… Claire.

    * not counting their appointed state auditor., soon to be “former.”

  327. Tina says:

    Looks like Flakey is troubled by trumps comments last night.

    To quote the reporter yesterday, flakey looked ill and he looks ill today.

    Amoral Scumbag.

  328. DW says:

    FL_18 – Dem internal

    Baer (D) 45%
    Mast (R) 48%

  329. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 3, 2018 at 11:41 am
    I’m going to say it now: Hugin will not defeat Menendez.

    – The race is fool’s gold and always has been. In a year where Republican are on defense almost everywhere, they’re not going to be on offense in NJ no matter how corrupt Menendez is.

  330. Todd McCain says:

    GOP doesn’t need to be on offense in NJ; Hugin is pumping his own money into the race. Win/Win.

  331. Tina says:

    https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409638-meadows-says-there-is-strong-suggestion-undercover-fbi-sources-taped-trump

    Looks like Fib wire tapped the Trump Campaign.

    A follow up to the tapping the wires of trump Tower.

  332. Tina says:

    MSNBC Hack Andrea Mitchell Wonders If FBI Should Investigate Whether Kavanaugh Was “Rude” To Senators…
    https://www.weaselzippers.us/398646-msnbc-hack-andrea-mitchell-wonders-if-fbi-should

    She is not a bright reporter, she is more of a Clinton drone,

  333. lisa says:

    240- I’ve shifted to Rye from gin over the years.
    —————

    i also love rye

    but it is expensive, while evan williams is a decent bourbon on a budget

  334. lisa says:

    The scary thing about these trump rallies are the number of attendees, inside the arena, and outside. In many cases, his crowds are even bigger than they were in 2016.
    ——————

    and the number of rallies … it seems like a rally a week or more

  335. mnw says:

    Lisa

    That’s because he’s doing two or more a week!

    KS tonite. Hope he omits the attacks on Ford. Not needed.

  336. Tina says:

    Yes, I think he is doing at least 2 a week now, Lisa.

  337. lisa says:

    that is nuts

    he is like a 70 year old energizer bunny

  338. Bitterlaw says:

    Menendez will easily win in November. His opponent is running many ads on Philadelphia stations showing old news reports of Menendez being indicted and tried. The problem is that all the voters know he beat the charges. However, I have not seen any Menendez ads. Maybe he is running them on the New York stations closer to his base.

  339. Bitterlaw says:

    Attacking Ford at rallies is stupid. Kavanaugh testified that he bears no ill will towards her. I understand fighting back but Trump seems to like writing the Democrsts’ talking points for them.

  340. Wes says:

    New Jersey’s problem is that people like you have a fetish for corrupt pols, Bitter. As long as you and your ilk enjoy having corrupt Dems represent you the Menendezes of the world will laugh all the way to the bank.

  341. lisa says:

    i cannot remember bush having any rallies, obama had some, but not this many

  342. Wes says:

    Liberal female Dems have a problem with successful Republican women:

    https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/heitkamp-deploys-man-who-married-his-campaign-manager-to-attack-cramer-for-hiring-his-wife-as-campaign-manager/

    Two years ago, Deborah Ross—whom Robbie confidently declared the next Senator from NC—made a similar attack on Richard Burr’s wife. It backfired spectacularly. I hope Heitkamp suffers an identical fate.

  343. lisa says:

    Trump seems to like writing the Democrsts’ talking points for them.

    ——————————-

    the thing is, while the dems are on about the outrage of the day … which has just become background noise at this point

    trump’s admin is canceling regs, appointing judges, and rewriting trade treaties

  344. Wes says:

    Bush had a ton of rallies in 2002. By 2006, Americans realized GWB was a joke of a President. As a result, he had few rallies that year. Most famously in one he did have, Charlie Crist ducked him and refused to show up.

  345. Redmen4ever says:

    I congratulate SNL. Finally, a television show had the courage to engage in gay-baiting and body-shaming. Surprised they didn’t tie K. to the Kennedy assassination. Does his f’n calendar go back to 1963?

    On a serious note, has Dr. Ford’s fingerprints been found on those ricin-laced envelopes?

  346. lisa says:

    i remember the bush rally at ground zero, that is about it

  347. Bitterlaw says:

    GFY, Wes. People like me? I never voted for a Democrat in New Jersey or anywhere else. How does that make me content? In college, I did not register in PA specifically because I wanted to vote by absentee ballot against all Dems in New Jersey. You seem bright sometimes. You know it makes no sense to say that I am content with New Jersey Democrats when I never voted for one and have not lived there except for school breaks after 1986, right?

  348. Mr.Vito says:

    Lindsay Graham said the same as Trump on Hannity… attacking the idea Ford couldnt remember anything but the one beer.

  349. Bitterlaw says:

    1988 was the first election I could vote for President. I was going to vote for Bush no matter where I was registered but I kept my registration specifically so I could vote for Pete Dawkins.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Dawkins

    Unfortunately, he lost to Frank Lautenberg. Lautenberg’s niece was in several of my classes.

  350. NYCmike says:

    Mr. Vito,

    “CG” and Robbie would NEVER watch Hannity, so they would not have seen that.

  351. Tina says:

    2h
    .@washingtonpost op-ed: The decision by Chairman @ChuckGrassley to have Arizona sex crimes prosecutor Rachel Mitchell question Christine Blasey Ford may well be remembered as a brilliant — and quite possibly pivotal — choice. #SCOTUS #ConfirmKavanaugh washingtonpost.com/opinions/rache…
    View summary ·

    I said at the time that it was a very smart move. The Drats cannot claim- mean white men, attacking poor Edsel Ford.

    Also, she was very thorough in her report and there are many holes in Ford, who no longer appears credible (unless you are Flakey and a d)

  352. Tgca says:

    After 2 small homemade egg and cheese (provolone and baby Swiss) tortillas for breakfast, I’m taking it light on lunch with a single serving of delicious nutritious vegan pasta with Rao’s tomato basil sauce and sautéed tofu chunks gobbled down with a glass of Coke Zero for a total of 200 calories.

    Do I dare snack on a few jalapeño gluten free crackers or stand firm and call it a meal?

    People ask me how I keep my glowing smooth wrinkle-free skin and manly figure…it’s all in the nutrition and portion control.

    Now Jadon will be all jealous and try to pretend he loves his “dirty” meat but we all know it’s just pretense.

  353. Tina says:

    It was not an attack.

    Her testimony is what it is.

    He should not have said it, but it is .trump.

  354. Mr.Vito says:

    GRAHAM: “If she was wrong about her best friend being at the party, what else was she wrong about? Her best friend says i’m not here to refute her claim, i’m just saying i’ve never met Brett Kavanaugh. How do you know you just had one beer and you can’t remember anything else?”

  355. BayernFan says:

    Is this a food blog now? When is the vote?

  356. Tgca says:

    I vote for vegan pasta!

    Say no to pork!!!

  357. NYCmike says:

    “Of course, breakfast WAS hours ago, there is the pleasant aroma of a meatloaf wafting through the house so looking forward to lunch.”

    -“meatloaf wafting”….

  358. Messy says:

    364. Unless you have celiac disease, gluten is GOOD for you.

  359. sandiegocitizen says:

    What Trump said at the rally was totally true. He made a good point. So now in our politically correct world its taboo to call out obvious facts?

  360. Wes says:

    Whenever I read what Tgca eats I want to retch.

  361. Redmen4ever says:

    Freedom at 21
    Jack White

    Yeah, cut off the bottoms of my feet
    make me walk on salt
    take me down to the police
    charge me with assault
    a smile on her face
    she does what she wants to me
    that’s right

    She don’t care what kind of wounds she’s inflicting on me
    She don’t care what color bruises that she’s leaving on me
    ’cause she’s got freedom in the 21st century
    Alright

    Listen
    Two black gadgets in her hand [iphones] is all she thinks about
    No responsibility, no guilt or morals cloud her judgement
    Smile on her face
    She does what she damn well please

    Right
    And she don’t care what kind of things people used to do
    And she don’t care that what she does has an effect on you
    She’s got freedom in the 21st century
    hey, hey, hey

  362. Messy says:

    316. Peace of mind. WSAZ-TV has him up 8.

  363. CG says:

    Trump claimed at the rally that Ford expressed confusion on “upstairs or downstairs” where she alleged the attack occurred. That is not true.

    There is also a difference between a Senator on the Committee doing this on a tv show and the POTUS doing it at a rally to get folks to yell “lock her up.”

    Yes, we all know there are some major questions about what Ford has alleged and some serious holes in her testimony. That’s not the main battle though. She likely has some profound disorder that is the fault of something happening to her in her life, that did not involve Kavanaugh. Last week, Trump himself was saying what a “fine woman” she was. By backtracking now and going after he, it just gives the signal that a loss is feared.

    Getting Kavanaugh confirmed is all that should matter. Ford should not be talked about publicly at all, especially not until the vote is held.

  364. Bitterlaw says:

    Can Tgca’s consumption really be considered eating?

  365. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 3, 2018 at 1:22 pm
    Mr. Vito,
    “CG” and Robbie would NEVER watch Hannity, so they would not have seen that.

    – Just like I don’t watch Rachel Maddow, Chris Cuomo, or Lawrence O’Donnell.

    Deal with it. I’m not interested in that brand of television.

  366. CG says:

    For some reason today, I ordered an egg salad sandwich with provolone cheese. It was disgusting.

  367. CG says:

    Why would I watch Hannity? He does his show for an audience of one.

  368. CG says:

    I do continue to DVR Fox News “Special Report” every weekday, as I have for years. Before that, it was CNN’s “Inside Politics” when it was a daily afternoon full-length show.

  369. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 3, 2018 at 1:13 pm
    GFY, Wes. People like me? I never voted for a Democrat in New Jersey or anywhere else. How does that make me content? In college, I did not register in PA specifically because I wanted to vote by absentee ballot against all Dems in New Jersey. You seem bright sometimes. You know it makes no sense to say that I am content with New Jersey Democrats when I never voted for one and have not lived there except for school breaks after 1986, right?

    You’ve specifically said you want to live only in Philly and New Jersey, Bitter. Those are both places infested with corrupt liberal Dems. You’re fully aware no Republican will ever win in either place. Thus how can I conclude you’re anything but content to have corrupt liberal Dems represent you?

  370. CG says:

    I want to see a “Wife Swap” special, like ABC used to do, where Wes and Bitterlaw change lives for a week.

  371. CG says:

    Then, they can do one for TGCA and Jadon.

  372. Mr.Vito says:

    I dont watch Hannity either. I was looking at videos from people linking how awesome Graham has been, including neverTrump people.

  373. Tina says:

    Trump only stated the obvious.

    She cannot recall any specifics, other than the one beer.

  374. sandiegocitizen says:

    375. I disagree, the Democrats have already turned this into a media circus. They are publically accusing Kavanaugh of all sorts of wrongful conduct based on Ford’s claims. Trump rebutted them. Is there anything that Trump said that was false or not already under public discussion?

  375. CG says:

    Graham should quite while he is ahead.

    Either he will get to be Attorney General next year or he will be the Senate Judiciary Chair. He was great in the hearing. Now, don’t detract from that. Do what Elton John would do..

  376. EML says:

    15 minutes until a text from trump!

  377. Bitterlaw says:

    Try to keep up, Wes. I want to have a beach house in Ocean City, New Jersey. I don’t want to live there full time. If wanting to have a beach house is an endorsement of Democrats you really are not bright. I like Philadelphia despite the Democrats and not because of them.

    Why don’t you accuse California Tina of being a Dem enabler?

  378. CG says:

    Yes, Trump stated something false when he said she was confused on “upstairs or downstairs.” She has only said upstairs, so he loses any credibility he may have when he lies about that or is mistaken on that.

    Democrats turned this into a circus. If you care about Republicans, you should not want them to follow suit. Just grit this out and wait for Kavanaugh to be confirmed, as I think he will be very shortly. That’s all the “revenge” you need against the Left. Believe it, they will be plenty pissed just from that alone.

  379. Tina says:

    Granite, Hatch, and Grassley are strong.

    As opposed to Scumbag Flakey.

  380. Bitterlaw says:

    Great. Trump can text me. If Obama did this, HHR would freak. Trump? Zzzzzzzzzz

    I already get weather alerts and local government alerts on my phone. Do I need more?

  381. Mr.Vito says:

    I think the entire GOP should point out the inconsistencies from Mitchell’s report as often as they can.

  382. Mr.Vito says:

    “If Obama did this, HHR would freak.”

    Why? Seems overdue.

  383. EML says:

    Ford’s story is falling apart faster than a nature valley granola bar. Dems know now that the Kavanaugh circus was a bad idea. Theyve already moved on to trump evading tax laws. Big news on the russian collusion front coming up.

  384. CG says:

    I anticipate his resignation announcement will be important enough to text one day. I will look forward to that.

  385. Bitterlaw says:

    Well, the alert system worked. Yeah.

  386. Diamond Jim says:

    Cubs.

  387. BayernFan says:

    everyone should say they didn’t get it!

  388. Diamond Jim says:

    CD

  389. Mr.Vito says:

    AAAAAAAAAAAUUUUUGGGGHHHHH!!!!

    WE’RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIEEEE!

    oh… it was just a test. Whew.

  390. GF says:

    I just got my first Presidential text; I’m all verklempt!

    Talk amongst yourselves…

  391. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Vito – If it is reserved for nuclear attacks I could accept it. I hope it is not overused.

  392. Tina says:

    He never said that she was “confused”.

  393. Tina says:

    Ryan Saavedra ??
    @RealSaavedra
    19m
    Sarah Sanders to CNN’s Jim Acosta: “I don’t have any problem stating facts, no. I know that’s something you probably do have a problem with, but I don’t.” pic.twitter.com/ZTBJfE6R7u
    View photo ·

  394. Tina says:

    Upstairs could refer to how many people present.

    She changed that account five times.

  395. Tina says:

    Chad Pergram
    @ChadPergram
    10m
    Thune on Fox about Trump’s remarks about Ford: It’s an audience of 3 that we have to win over. As usually is the case, the president’s style & tone is perhaps not all that helpful. But the pt he (made) is correct. There are inconsistencies. But how you make those pts does matter

    The Three Cuckateers

  396. Wes says:

    I received the alert.

  397. Mr.Vito says:

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-senator-asks-mccaskill-campaign-to-remove-him-from-ad

    “But in a statement released by McCaskill’s GOP opponent, Roberts asked McCaskill to remove him from the 30-second ad, saying her “days of bipartisanship are long over.”

  398. Wes says:

    QU says Menendez leads Hugin 53-42.

  399. CG says:

    Why was the alert I got in Russian?

  400. CG says:

    I just got a follow-up alert with an attachment that claims to have photos of Melania. I’m skeptical.

  401. Tina says:

    Look at the Clinton groupie.

    Sad that it did not get an alert from Hillary.

  402. CG says:

    Hillary’s alerts would be self-deleting.

  403. Waingro says:

    Forget about this pipe dream. Focus on IN, FL, MO, ND, AZ and NV.

    Nick Corasaniti
    ?Verified account @NYTnickc
    54m54 minutes ago

    New @QuinnipiacPoll shows much wider gap in #NJSen:

    Menendez 53
    Hugin 42

  404. Redmen4ever says:

    Q poll for WV: unsurprisingly more favorable to the Democrat.

    At the national level, Q is backstopped by the other high quality media and university polls. But, who will backstop Q at the state level?

  405. Waingro says:

    Manchin internal poll:

    Simone Pathe
    ?Verified account @sfpathe
    1h1 hour ago

    New @GSG poll for @JoeManchinWV (9/19-23) #WVSEN
    Manchin: 48%
    Morrisey: 36%
    Hollen: 4%

  406. Waingro says:

    #416, there was a Q West Virginia poll? Link?

  407. Tina says:

    NC
    47m
    Did anyone else just get a national emergency alert about CNN being very fake news?
    View details ·

  408. dblaikie says:

    Quin. polls were once pretty fair in a different political time. They especially had a decent reputation with Pa. However in this time when both main stream media and the academic community have deep lasting TDS why you would you believe any of their polls?

    But I do hope Menedez and Manchin believe them. Of course the media will use them for propaganda. Oh I know, I am the stupid one. How conspiratorial and irrational of me to believe that these were released not for informative but for political purposes. Waingro if you want to eat the yellow snow go ahead.

    I predict a red wave. In fact I have predicted that for the past 4 months. In the words of Patsy Cline, “I’m crazy.”

  409. dblaikie says:

    Oh by the way the Quin. polls are not likely voters. I wonder why? Could it be it needed to be a rush job to sooth the dem. base about New Jersey and strengthen Manchin about Kavanaugh.

  410. Mr.Vito says:

    In that poll, the only group that declined since the last poll was Democrat women.

  411. DW says:

    Marist GCB now just Dem +6

  412. Tina says:

    Db, love the red wave.

    Jebots will be sad though.

  413. dblaikie says:

    Just so you folks know I was able to listen to a little Rush and he claims that Trump is no dummy with his statements. He claims that Trump is giving the Senators and the GOP cover. He will put the stuff out about Ford that no one else and because he has been doing it for the last three years and he doesn’t mind to take the heat for it. In fact he could care less.

  414. Mr.Vito says:

    Seung Min Kim
    ?Verified account @seungminkim
    3h3 hours ago

    Seung Min Kim Retweeted Josh Dawsey

    Yet Flake tells me Trump’s comments last night will NOT affect his thinking on the nomination. “You can’t take it like out on other people the president’s insensitive remarks.”

  415. dblaikie says:

    Sheperd Smith is pathetic. I mean really, he only has people on his show who will agree with his excited drivel. He is just plain lousy. Why does Fox keep him?

  416. Mr.Vito says:

    More fake news

    ……………..

    (((AG)))
    ? @AG_Conservative
    3h3 hours ago

    (((AG))) Retweeted John Iadarola

    This tweet is 100% false, and yet a bunch of reporters decided to retweet it without watching video.

    Quote is from James Carville’s defense of Bill Clinton in the 90’s and Graham was distinguishing that from GOP treatment of Ford. It’s whataboutism, but not an attack on Ford.

    (((AG))) added,
    2:09
    John Iadarola
    Verified account @johniadarola
    Lindsey Graham on Christine Blasey Ford: “This is what happens when you go through a trailer park with a $100 bill.”…
    Show this thread
    69 replies 834 retweets 2,049 likes

  417. Waingro says:

    BOOM.

    Frank Luntz
    ?Verified account @FrankLuntz
    2m2 minutes ago

    In July, @TheDemocrats held a +10% voter enthusiasm gap over @GOP voters for next month’s midterms.

    Now, they hold an only +2% enthusiasm lead.

    https://n.pr/2NmQofs

  418. mnw says:

    417 Waingro

    That’s consistent with Cow’s summary of the WV race.

  419. Waingro says:

    #432, yeah, I’m not even thinking about WV. Pipe dream to take out Manchin.

    There is slight chance that if he ends up getting savaged by the Dems and Libs for voting yes on Kavanaugh that he could be convinced to caucus with the GOP next term.

  420. Tina says:

    New! Download the Twitter for iPad app
    Cari Kelemen ??
    Cari Kelemen ??
    @KelemenCari
    Follow
    225 million cell phones just received the Presidential Emergency Alert. Even Hillary’s. ?
    11:24 AM – 3 Oct

  421. Wes says:

    This RRH “Republican” almost makes Messy look smart:

    VASTBLIGHTKINGCONSPIRACY
    October 3, 2018 at 3:47 pm | In reply to valibertarian01
    Trump won North Dakota 63-27. Gary Johnson did very well with over 6% of the vote. 61% approval isn’t actually that good and implies that the Great Plains was the region of the country that hated Hillary Clinton the most (Trump was very weak there in the primaries).
    Anti-D. Waiting for an actual opposition party.

    Hm. Trump got 63% in ND in 2016. He’s now sitting at 61% in the same state. I can see how horribly Trump is doing up there. 🙄

  422. mnw says:

    Anyone who has a screen name like that is a pompous ass– you know that before you even read his post.

    VAST would barely make my top 5 worst over there.

    I read that McConnell has to file cloture today, in order to have a vote Saturday. Seems unlikely.

  423. mnw says:

    My 437 is incorrect about cloture. He filed it Friday.

  424. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 3, 2018 at 3:49 pm
    https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2018/10/03/i-think-im-in-love-john-bolton-responds-to-activist-reporter-with-this-savage-gesture-video/?utm_campaign=twitchywidget

    -Bolton probably offends “CG” and Robbie, as well as MD and Author.

    – His comments don’t offend me, but I don’t care for Bolton.

    Find something else to worry about, ok.

  425. lisab says:

    u mass is giving free course credit to students who take a university bus down to dc to harass sen collins abiut kavanaugh

  426. NYCmike says:

    “Find something else to worry about, ok.”

    -November 8, 2016 I was a little worried about who Hillary would pick for that position if she was elected.

    You were crying in your JEB!2016 guac bowl.

  427. NYCmike says:

    “u mass is giving free course credit to students who take a university bus down to dc to harass sen collins abiut kavanaugh”

    -Does UMass accept federal funds?

  428. Tina says:

    Broom Scyhster is mad. He wanted a forum to meet with Wrong Wray and Redactstein.

    Thought he could muscle his way into things and do a con job, as if Comedy were still director.

  429. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 3, 2018 at 5:16 pm
    “Find something else to worry about, ok.”

    -November 8, 2016 I was a little worried about who Hillary would pick for that position if she was elected.

    You were crying in your JEB!2016 guac bowl.

    – I suppose if you lie to yourself enough time, you’ll believe the sh!t you’re spouting about me crying over Jeb.

    I’m actually worried how Senator Mourdock will vote on Kavanaugh. How about you?

  430. lisab says:

    does umass accept federal funds?
    ———-

    of course, but actually it was university of southern maine my mistake

    “it was to encourage activism”

    they already pulled the course after the university’s president’s cell number was tweeted out … it took only an jour

  431. Mr.Vito says:

    Brit Hume
    ?Verified account @brithume
    24h24 hours ago

    Senate Dems on Kavanaugh.
    1. Oppose him almost unanimously from start.
    2. Call him “evil.”
    3. In hearings, virtually ignore his actual record on the bench.
    4. Afterward, leak uncorroborated accusations of sex crimes.
    5. When he fights back in anger, attack his “temperament.”

  432. lisab says:

    naturally i doubt they pulled the course in reality

    i am sure the busses have already left campus

  433. blobbie says:

    I only care that Hillary lost

    I could not care less about JEB!

    except that his loss hurt Clinton

  434. Tina says:

    Breaking News!

    Hillary receives Trumps Alert and smashes IPhone with a hammer.

  435. NYCmike says:

    “I’m actually worried how Senator Mourdock will vote on Kavanaugh. How about you?”

    -This shows that your “reality” is off…..Mourdock lost.

    Just like JEB!2016……I moved on to the world as it is…..how about you?

  436. Wes says:

    Why exactly did Mourdock lose, Mikey? Republicans won all but one other statewide race in IN that year, gained a House seat, expanded their majorities in the Legislature, and flipped the state solidly away from Obama.

    There must be some reason Dick the Misogynist Bastard Mourdock lost.

  437. Mr.Vito says:

    So does this FBI report come out today or what?

  438. NYCmike says:

    Mourdock, a state-wide elected official, who garnered 60% of the Republican primary electorate’s vote, lost mainly due to an ill-timed remark.

    Are you related to this Dr. Ford person, that your memory is so bad?

  439. Waingro says:

    Bye bye, Heidi.

    PollingReport.com
    ? @pollreport
    1m1 minute ago

    NORTH DAKOTA
    U.S. Senate:
    Heidi Heitkamp (D) 41%
    Kevin Cramer (R) 53%
    (Fox News Poll, LV, 9/29 – 10/2/18)
    0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

  440. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    D: Heitkamp 41, Cramer 53
    IN: Donnelly 43, Braun 41
    AZ: Sinema 47, McSally 45
    MO: McCaskill 43, Hawley 43
    TN: Blackburn 48, Bredesen 43

    6:00 PM – 3 Oct 2018- FOX News Polls

  441. Wes says:

    Help me out here, Mikey. How’d Mourdock benefit from getting 61% in the primary if he just threw it away with an offensive remark? It doesn’t seem as if he did too much with that big primary victory.

  442. Phil says:

    Sounds like Flake ends up a yes. Manchin’s Worst nightmare is Collins and Murkowski vote no. It then makes Manchin the deciding vote. Yikes. Schumer will then insist Manchin walk the plank. A probably re-election suddenly becomes a nail biter.

  443. Wes says:

    Assuming Fox is credible good movement in AZ and IN.

  444. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Toupee Cook goes from the ridiculous to the sublime. Eight more House ratings’ changes all toward the Donkeys:

    Cook Political Report moves 8 more seats toward Ds.

    Lean D ? Likely D: PA-17
    Toss Up ? Lean D: KS-03, MI-11
    Lean R ? Toss Up: FL-26, UT-04
    Likely R ? Lean R: NY-24
    Solid R ? Likely R: MI-03, NY-21

  445. Wes says:

    Best bet is if a Republican Senator votes no, Phil. Pence can then break the tie, and every Dem is on record in opposition.

  446. Phil says:

    No Beto poll?

  447. Todd McCain says:

    Looking very favorable in MO, IN and ND.

    Have a feeling McSally pulls that one off.

  448. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Phil
    PredictIt has confirmation at 72% at this time.

  449. Wes says:

    I’d like to know if the undecideds in AZ are more GOP than not. I would imagine so.

  450. Robbie says:

    Fox polls are usually good polls. Republicans are in the game in the Senate. What they need is an on-message president the next five weeks. They don’t need Trump riffing about the accuser as he did last night.

    Heitkamp is done. The focus should move to MO and IN as pickups and the defenses of NV and AZ.

  451. Phil says:

    Could be what happens, Wes but WV voters are not going to like Manchin voting no. Not sure it’s enough to beat Manchin but it sure opens the door for it.

  452. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 3, 2018 at 6:20 pm
    Could be what happens, Wes but WV voters are not going to like Manchin voting no. Not sure it’s enough to beat Manchin but it sure opens the door for it.

    – His comments suggests he wants to vote yes, but is waiting to see what the two women do. He doesn’t want to be the vote that secures it for Kavanaugh. He wants to be superfluous.

  453. Phil says:

    I think that will be the strategy going forward, Robbie.

  454. Robbie says:

    I still think Republicans should offer Manchin a chairmanship if he’ll switch parties. Voting for Kavanaugh could make him persona no grata in his caucus and happened with Shelby in the early 1990’s over the balanced budget.

  455. Phil says:

    Also looking like the Democratic wet dream of fake moderate Bredesen winning Tennessee was just that – a dream. I put it in the same category as media fantasies of Beto taking out Cruz.

  456. Phil says:

    Manchin won’t go for it, Robbie. He’s a lib. Remember, he stayed true to Hillary even after she flat out came out for WV miners losing their jobs. Defended her all the way until Election Day.

  457. Tina says:

    No,way is Enema winning in Az.

    Faux polls.

    All,we need are surf and turf polls.

  458. lisab says:

    Gowri Ramachandran and James Sample Brett Kavanaugh lied brazenly and repeatedly under oath. Any law student knows he cannot sit on the Supreme Court.

    It feels self-evident, but a judge who cannot obey the law cannot be expected to apply it.

    nbc news

  459. Mr.Vito says:

    Since he lied brazenly and repeatedly under oath, I’m sure his arrest is imminent, and they have nothing to worry about.

  460. lisab says:

    500+ Law Professors Agree: Kavanaugh’s Testimony Was ‘Disqualifying For Any Court,’ Let Alone Supreme Court

  461. Hugh says:

    Is Brett Beiar trying to get some lib street cred these days. His election analysis tonight is a frigging joke. Can’t wait to see the carnage in November for dem senators.

  462. lisab says:

    Kavanaugh’s Partisan Rage Was Disqualifying – Even If He’s Innocent

  463. Mr.Vito says:

    Gallup: 46% say Kavanaugh should be confirmed; 45% say he should not be

    (Sept 24-30)

    Change from Sept 10-16
    Yes +7
    No -3

  464. lisab says:

    Trump reportedly tried to rewrite his father’s will but his dad thwarted the effort, saying ‘this doesn’t pass the smell test’

  465. lisab says:

    We knew Trump was incredibly corrupt. Turns out he may also be an epic tax cheat. (washingtonpost.com)

  466. Diamond Jim says:

    Go Cubs.

  467. lisab says:

    The Caucasian Kanye: Tucker Carlson Has Gone Full White Nationalist

  468. Phil says:

    With ND gone Dems have to sweep Montana, WV, Indiana, Mo, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada just to get to 50.

    Odds of that happening are slim.

    Once Donnelly votes no on Kavanaugh his odds go way down.

  469. Tina says:

    USCP arrest 27 yr old Jackson Cosko of DC for “allegedly posted private, identifying information (doxing) about one or more United States Senators.”

  470. lisab says:

    The news this week confirms it: Donald Trump is the worst person ever to be president (washingtonpost.com)

  471. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 3, 2018 at 6:31 pm
    Manchin won’t go for it, Robbie. He’s a lib. Remember, he stayed true to Hillary even after she flat out came out for WV miners losing their jobs. Defended her all the way until Election Day.

    – Shelby supported Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, and Clinton in 1992, right? Yet, he’s a conservative stalwart today.

    My guess is, if Manchin ever switched parties, he’d become a reliable Republican vote. It’s a guess on my part, but he doesn’t strike me as a true believer of liberalism.

    Manchin supported Clinton so strongly in 2016 because he believed she would win. Why be on her bad side?

  472. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    476. “Is Brett Beiar trying to get some lib street cred these days. His election analysis tonight is a frigging joke.”

    I thought the Fox News election coverage on election night in 2016 was amateur. The commentators were not knowledgeable or articulate. Often they used canned phrases.

  473. Phil says:

    Agree, SD. John King at CNN was actually quite good on election night.

  474. EML says:

    This Kavanaugh debacle may go down in history as one of the most epic unforced boners in political history. You could never stop the nomination. You had the House for sure and the Senate was likely. Then you had to be dishonest and try to ruin a man with no evidence. Voters don’t like your dishonesty. Senate is certainly Republican and the momentum in the House is on Republicans side. Foolishness.

    Yes, I said unforced boner.

  475. lisab says:

    Kavanaugh’s drinking spotlights Trump’s ‘abnormal’ abstinence (politico.com)

  476. Phil says:

    EML is right on the money. The Senate battlegrounds were always going to be Montana, ND, Mo, Indiana, Florida, and to a much lesser extent Tennessee and Texas. The circus didn’t play well in ANY of those states. Probably a net negative in Arizona and probably Nevada as well as far as being a GOP turnout incentive. Just stirred up Republican voters. Played well in California, , Michigan, NJ, etc. So what. Those senate seats weren’t ever going to be contested.

  477. Tina says:

    Faux News Amateurish?

    Yes, with Shepardly Smith, Geraldine Rivera, and Karl Rove providing coverage.

    Rove is still counting Florida from 2012. An embarrassment.

  478. Wes says:

    When Kevin Cramer beats Heidi Heitkamp next month The Dakotas will have no Dems in either delegation for the first time since the first Eisenhower Administration. It took long enough.

  479. Wes says:

    Has Rove ever admitted Obama won OH in ‘08? Is he still in denial American Crossroads was an expensive flop?

  480. Tina says:

    Senator,Cotton called out the drat lAwyahs of Krapz and Broom Scyhster.

    He said the shrink notes need to be released, if they are damaging, The drat lawyahs would have leaked them.

    In other news. Flakey is in a safe space.

  481. janz says:

    Katz, Ford’s attorney, says the therapy notes and polygraph paperwork won’t be released until the FBI re-interviews Ford. There is always another condition on everything having to do with the accuser having to put up something on her side of the ledger.

    Also, has anyone noticed that when Flake is being interviewed Coons is usually standing right next to him? It’s like Coons is babysitting Flake, keeping him in line for a “no” vote.

  482. mnw says:

    The FOX SEN polls don’t look outlandish to me.

    I keep telling folks that Hawley is NOT in the clear, a la Cramer in ND. A tie in MO is likely correct, imo. I don’t get it, but that seems to be the fact.

    There are too many posters here inclined to throw McC in the same dustbin as Heitkamp. BIG mistake, folks.

  483. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – I have said for years that McCaskill is like Glen Close in Fatal Attraction. I will believe that she loses when she really loses.

  484. EML says:

    Just makes no sense how a state that voted for Trump by 18.5 could also send Air Claire back to the Senate.

  485. Hugh says:

    Here is how I see MO. If we do not win that one we will not win any of the close ones. She is a known liberal in what has become a true red state. She is voting against Kavanaugh. She is toast or there will be a blue wave. I believe she loses by a comfortable margin.

  486. Diamond Jim says:

    DI amond Jim

  487. janz says:

    BTW, many times when I hear some of Trump’s rally comments it makes me feel uncomfortable — like he is going too far or rattling on for too long. But, last night, his routine, about the vagueness of Ford’s details surrounding her serious accusations, was spot on. He spoke publicly what so many people have been thinking.

  488. Hugh says:

    Btw. I agree she is not credible but only three opinions matter right now and why push them. Having said that I really think murkowski is a lock to vote yes unless she wants to retire in 4 years.

  489. mnw says:

    Well, Hugh… she is definitely not toast. Trust me.

    Sincerely,

    Lifelong Missouri resident & conservative activist.

  490. Hugh says:

    If you’re right we are in a lot of trouble.

  491. Tgca says:

    372. Wes

    Start retching dude. For din din I just had a manly man’s helping (14.7 oz) of Amy’s organic spicy vegan chili. Gobbled that down with a healthy 3 oz of Jalapeño tortilla chips, a glass of Coke Zero, and 3 gummy vitamins. That’s like a whopping 680 calories.

  492. Tgca says:

    383 CG

    I would not do that to Jadon. I don’t want his wife leaving him after being mesmerized by my Jersey charm.

    I wonder if Mrs. Jadon will tell me to GFY when I show up at the house. Hmmm…

  493. janz says:

    More questions: Why are protesters allowed in the Capitol building when their harassment is so great that the Capitol police have to escort Congress people to their cars etc.? Why not cordon them off, outside of the building?

  494. Tgca says:

    387 CG

    Graham should do what Elton John would do?

    Buy some weed and pick up a young boy for the night? I don’t understand.

  495. Tgca says:

    437 mnw

    McConnel filed cloture today? That sounds soooo dirty. Ewww.

  496. Cash Cow TM says:

    Leftwing dingbat org. (DEMOCRATS.COM #VOTEPROCHOICE
    is sending out emails to their soldiers on next step to stop Kavanaugh nomination…Or as they say “SHUT HIM DOWN”
    ########################################
    Cow got one of the emails…

    Here is basically what is says…

    “1. Show up in Washington, D.C. and tell senators to #BelieveSurvivors…
    2. Flood. The. Phone. Lines. CALL: XXX-XXX-XXXX
    (Senators; phone lines)
    3. 3. Support this GoFundMe for Dr. Blasey Ford, Deborah Ramirez, and Julie Swetnick….”

  497. Gelt Goose says:

    Honk.

  498. mnw says:

    Hugh 505

    With respect, I know I’m right…I have the same degree of certainty that Wes has about NJ SEN.

    Now, I DON’T agree that “if [I’m] right, we [GOP] are “in a lot of trouble.” Not at all.

    What we ARE IN is a really tough fight, balanced on a knife edge, that could go either way.

    People don’t like uncertainty, I know, but that’s what it IS. There is no rationale whatsoever, imo, right now to assume that Hawley is in command as Cramer is.

  499. Redmen4ever says:

    If Ted Cruz’ father wasn’t in on the JFK assassination, that means only one thing: it must have been Robert Menendez’ father.

    Did Robert Menendez father keep a calendar?

  500. mnw says:

    Hi, Tg,

    I think he filed it last Friday.

  501. Tgca says:

    Cloture is not an appealing word. I don’t like that word! It sounds too much like cl…Oh, forget it!

    Anyway, who wants to discuss ABORTION?

  502. Cash Cow TM says:

    “jason says:
    October 3, 2018 at 9:30 am
    Walt remembers the Ramses – Moses debates.”

    I don’t know how he got elected to public office.

    Rumor is that he saw Cain kill Abel and didn’t report it.”
    #######################

    Walt says you guys crack him up.

  503. Tina says:

    Breaking Doj announcement. Tomorrow at 6:30 am est,

    Rosenstein to announce something..

  504. NYCmike says:

    Yankees winning 2-0, but their starting pitcher has thrown 80 pitches thru only 4 innings.

    To be honest, I don’t even care anymore.

  505. Jill says:

    In my opinion, MNW is right about Claire McCaskill in Missouri. She is a tough campaigner who has known she would face a difficult race and prepared accordingly.

    Last time around (2012) she deliberately got involved in the Republican primary. She ran ads “against” Todd Akin as “too conservative” for Missouri. That helped him by raising his name ID and making him look more conservative to the GOP primary voters than his opponents. She did that because she knew he was the weakest of the 3 primary opponents. He won the primary, and then proceeded to destroy his candidacy with a stupid debate answer about abortion & rape. The Democratic Pollster PPP proceeded to run cooked polls showing him still competitive in the race until 1 day after the deadline for him to drop out and be replaced. She benefited from Obama running strong and getting a lot of his voters to the polls. Then she crushed Akin in the general election.

    This time around, Josh Hawley was the clear Republican favorite and he’s a much stronger candidate. So she had her volunteers out months ago knocking on doors and talking her up. I think she will lose, but I believe it will be close. She’s running lots of ads painting Hawley as a guy who would strip health care from people with pre-existing conditions and stating he’s basically a heartless young guy who just got his current job and is now asking for a promotion. She tried using the legal problems of the former governor (Eric Greitens who had a sex scandal) against Hawley. Hawley spoke against Greitens and forced him to resign so that line of attack didn’t help her much. I think she won’t be able to overcome the reddish tilt of the state and the dislike for her. It’s not going to be a blowout though, and if the GOP voters are unenthusiastic she could squeak through.

  506. Diamond Jim says:

    mnw – I have said for years that McCaskill is like Glen Close in Fatal Attraction. I will believe that she loses when she really loses.

    Same with Governor Walker

  507. Cash Cow TM says:

    FINALLY THERE IS HOPE!

    DRUDGE
    Firm claims new feed curbs cow farts — and global warming…

  508. Diamond Jim says:

    Too bad the Cubs couldn’t win one of their last two games at home. Sniff.

  509. Tina says:

    Josh Caplan
    @joshdcaplan
    1h
    BREAKING: Ex-top FBI lawyer James Baker on Wednesday gave “explosive” closed-door testimony to House lawmakers detailing how Russia probe was handled in “abnormal fashion” reflecting “political bias” – FOX
    View details ·

  510. Wes says:

    I think Walker and McCaskill both lose.

  511. Tgca says:

    522 Cow

    I saw that earlier. I was gonna send it too you. You can dispense with the Beano now.

  512. Cash Cow TM says:

    Another one from the lawless side falls.
    ##########################################

    RE: The recent Doxxing of Republican U.S.Senators

    “A Democratic congressional intern was arrested Wednesday and accused of posting the personal information of at least one Republican senator during last week’s hearing about sexual assault claims against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, authorities said.

    U.S. Capitol Police said 27-year-old Jackson Cosko was charged with making public restricted personal information, witness tampering, threats in interstate communication, unauthorized access of a government computer, identity theft, second-degree burglary and unlawful entry. Police added that the investigation was continuing and more charges could be filed.”

  513. jason says:

    Has Avenatti offered to defend him yet?

  514. jason says:

    I see Corey called Trump a psychopath.

    Well, he considers Hillary a non-ideological compromiser, so he is consistently delusional.

  515. mnw says:

    Taken as a whole, the FOX polls are encouraging. Looks like the Libertarian may save Donnelly(D) in IN, & cost the GOP THAT SEN pickup opportunity, however.

    I’m surprised FOX omitted MT SEN, btw. Why? Because FOX thinks/thought Tester is too far ahead, there I guess.

    The momentum, excepting IN, is certainly good.

  516. mnw says:

    dbl

    National Council of Churches just dumped on Kavanaugh. Hope the last mainstream Protestant remembers to turn all the deeds to church property over to BLM & #resist.com.

  517. MichiganGuy says:

    Leader McConnell
    ?Verified account @senatemajldr

    I just filed cloture on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. There will be plenty of time for Members to review and be briefed on this supplemental material before a Friday cloture vote.
    .
    https://twitter.com/senatemajldr/status/1047668600994254853

  518. Tina says:

    Cookoo worked for Sheila Jackson Lee.

    She is the one that passed an envelope to Broom Schyster, during the Kavanaugh hearing.

  519. MichiganGuy says:

    Leader McConnell
    ?Verified account @senatemajldr
    7h7 hours ago

    The Senate voted today to pass landmark legislation to combat the #opioidcrisis, including my #CAREERAct, which helps recovering individuals find their footing and stay sober. The bill now goes to @POTUS’ desk for his signature.
    .
    https://twitter.com/senatemajldr/status/1047575861547945984
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Trade deals, legislation victories, Supreme Court nominee approved. October is looking good for Republicans!

  520. Robbie says:

    Just took a look at Avenatti’s Twitter feed. I noticed he’s no longer talking about Swetnick or gang rape. He’s moved on to his presidential quest.

    He should be sanctioned for what he did on this matter.

  521. Tina says:

    Looks like Jeff Sessions was subpoenaed and must appear before the House Judiciary Committee.

    strange, if true.

  522. dylan says:

    The Coons thing is darned creepy. he’s like a North Korean minder.

  523. Victrc says:

    For all those wondering why people are getting so close to Senators and congressman it’s because generally, anyone can enter the buildings, especially the buildings where House members have offices.

    There are a series of tunnels that run between buildings as well where members can be “cornered.” Members are finally starting to take physical security serious…I might add after a very long time of convincing them by someone ?

  524. dblaikie says:

    531 Never have supported the National Council of Churches.

  525. BayernFan says:

    So could the cucketeers vote against cloture so they don’t have to take a stand either way.

  526. BayernFan says:

    In normal circumstances in Indiana, libertarians are good for about 2-3%.

  527. BayernFan says:

    And I’m gonna have to backtrack. Looking at the last few senate elections in Indiana, the libertarian has received over 5%. That surprised me.

  528. wheelz91 says:

    Geez… I think Nelson is toast. Check out this from his debate with Gov. Scott.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=54&v=Aj-T_FEBR38

  529. sandiegocitizen says:

    548. Good grief. He talks like a piece of toast. Out of politeness his colleagues should have convinced him to retire.

  530. MichiganGuy says:

    White House Finds No Support in FBI Report for Claims Against Kavanaugh.
    .
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-finds-no-corroboration-of-sexual-misconduct-allegations-against-kavanaugh-in-fbi-report-1538625927?mod=breakingnews
    ———————————————————————————————————————–
    Lets wrap this up! Time to vote! Saturday can’t come soon enough.

  531. George says:

    Uh oh…..Joe and Mika very grim on their show opening today. They are very fearful of the Dem and media “overreach” which has unleashed a huge backlash as documented by the NPR polling. They compared it to the Trump election where media totally ignored what was really going on in the country.

  532. Toast says:

    Geez… I think Nelson is toast.

    Not yet.

  533. Wes says:

    Nelson had a bad debate in 2012 too, Wheelz. He still beat Mack IV handily. Granted, Scott is a far more substantial candidate than Mack, but don’t assume Nelson will automatically lose based on this.

  534. Wes says:

    In a new poll, Wexton leads Comstock 51-44. We’ve seen three polls of this race. In each, Comstock has trailed while hovering at the danger zone between 40 and 44%.

    In this same poll, Dems have a 15-point enthusiasm edge in VA-10. That’s in line with antipathy toward Trump combined with outright loathing of Corey Stewart.

    I’m sorry, but you guys who advocated the whack-a-mole strategy of throwing money at a clearly hopeless race were demonstrably wrong. The NRSC needs to take a page out of House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) playbook and cancel ads in this district to disburse funds among actually winnable races.

    Once Stewart became the Senate nominee Comstock became doomed.

  535. Wes says:

    Mason Dixon says Nelson leads Scott 47-46. Scott still has a great shot at ousting Nelson.

  536. Wes says:

    In addition to the $46 million already allocated for those states, SLF, Mitch McConnell’s PAC, will spend $13 million more in AZ, IN, MO, and TN. I’m hoping TN will soon drop off the competitive radar so McConnell can cancel his ad buys there and shift money to other races.

  537. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #559
    Tina: He voted YES in Committee. He will not change his vote on the Senate floor.
    The headline is inflamatory and misleading.

  538. Tina says:

    Sheeple, hope so. They need to vote and get him confirmed.

    But Sassehole will rival Quittens in 2019 for biggest Rino.

  539. Wes says:

    People seem to forget what state Sasse represents. Voting against Kavanaugh would be political suicide.

  540. JeffP says:

    Hill reports…DNC and FBI lawyers met before surveillance on Trump campaign and discussed dossier.

    This is about to blow wide open!

    Sounds 100x worse than Watergate. Sessions is on the clock.

  541. jason says:

    Sasse is a Tea Party favorite and ten times more conservative than Trump ever was. This is a guy who home schooled his kids.

    Here are some of the organizations who supported him

    The 60 Plus Association, the Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund, the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund, the Legacy Foundation Action Fund, FreedomWorks, Patriots for Economic Freedom, Citizens United, Gun Owners of America and Empower Nebraska.

    Here is his record, hard to get more conservative than this.

    https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/150182/ben-sasse#.W7YGDVJRfq0

    Sasse is no RINO, unless you call Trump Super RINO.

  542. DW says:

    McLaughlin (R)

    MO Senate

    Hawley 52
    McCaskill 44

  543. Redmen4ever says:

    At the Congressional level, VA10 is a sinkhole like Florida and Texas are at the state level. Although there is a limit to this, if we can keep the Democrats engaged in the 10th, they can’t reallocate their mobile resources to other races (e.g., the 2nd and the 7th). A key consideration in this is whether the candidate has resources of her own, which Barbara has, or is being totally propped up by party and independent Super PACs.

  544. DW says:

    And right on cue, Sabato and Cook are out with huge piles of ratings changes, every last one of them in favor of Dems…this despite tightening polls and even 538, in the last two days, increasing GOP chances of holding the house.

  545. Bitterlaw says:

    Every Republican is a RINO to Tina.

    I also wanted Trump to nominate a woman (Barrett). It had nothing to do with Kavanaugh since I knew nothing about him.

  546. Wes says:

    It does help to know what one is talking about when assessing a race, Redmen. Dems didn’t make any new ad buys when the NRCC put $5 million into VA-10. There was a reason for that: They didn’t need to because Wexton became the frontrunner immediately after the primary.

    Liberals have grossly outspent the GOP there, and Paul Ryan even realized the race was a lost cause and abandoned the race. Pretending Dems are going to have a panicky reaction to increased NRCC expenditures in the district neither is realistic nor acknowledges actual occurrences.

  547. DW says:

    NH_01 – R Internal

    Pappas (D) 40%
    Edwards (R) 42%

  548. JeffP says:

    Sasse is a conservative but a pious one…not a RINO. He’s also NeverTrump. He does mean well…but he doesn’t like the polical nastiness and naively believes it can be better…maybe in 1950 Ben. Culture impacts politics and this is where we are today.

    I mean before Obama hardly anyone ever heard of George Soros as a puppet master. Today almost a household name in those that follow politics. Too many warriors in conservative movement are in the battle and many avenues for them to communicate and organize through radio, twitter, websites,, etc…These Totalitarian Commies are not going to win the war anytime soon.

  549. Wes says:

    Cool has moved MT-Sen from Lean D to Tossup. That’s encouraging.

  550. Redmen4ever says:

    Thanks Wes. Next next you’re in the 10th District, I’ll show you around.

    Democrats come down here from Maryland and parts further north to GOTV. You are proposing that we, in Virginia, fall back to a line further south, thinking #1 that our in-district resources will follow, and their out-of-district resources won’t.

    I rate my district as Probable D and the 2nd and 7th as Lean R. But, we’re the DIC (Detachment left In Contact). I was in the infantry, so I know what it means when you’re DIC’ed. But, this is preferable to our district being Safe D and the 2nd and 7th being moved to Toss-up.

  551. Redmen4ever says:

    Straw Polls masquerading as scientific thanks to the magic of post-stratification.

    The LA Times and U. of California at Berkeley have 8 polls of Congressional races in California. They all are targets of the Democratic Party. It is of course o.k. for the LA Times to entertain its readers, but I wonder why the U. of California at Berkeley could be so uncurious about a fuller range of races; or, is partisanship at work and not scientific curiousity.

    Anyway, the polls use email addresses provided by voters on a voluntary basis. It is immediately obvious that providing an email address is correlated with various indicators of political inclination. But, through the power of post-stratification, this highly skewed sample is made good.

    Well, not if you correlate the results of this set of surveys conducted by SurveyUSA and others. So, what do you do with these things?

    CA10 D50 – R45
    CA22 R53 – D45
    CA25 D50 – R45
    CA39 D49 – R48
    CA45 D52 – R45
    CA48 R48 – D48
    CA49 D55 – R41
    CA50 R49 – D47

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

  552. Tgca says:

    Cinco
    Setenta
    Seis
    !

  553. DW says:

    575 – I saw them and made the decision to ignore them.

    Berkeley?
    LA Times?
    e-mails involved?

    What could go wrong?

  554. DW says:

    FL_16 – North FL U:

    Shapiro (D) 40%
    Buchanan (R) 49%

    2nd poll in a row showing strong lead

  555. mnw says:

    I’ve long thought that Hawley & Rosendale would make a move up, at some point.

    I wish someone would stick a fork up Sasse’s adz, btw. A BIG fork– possibly a tuning fork. I am hoping at the bit to contribute to a serious GOP primary challenger.

  556. mnw says:

    579 sb “chomping at”

  557. mnw says:

    WSJ: “We’re all ‘deplorable’ now”

    VERY nice! NOBODY has been harder on Trump than the WSJ– not CNN, not NYT. NOBODY.

    “We’re all deplorables now” would make a good GOP meme for the midterm.

  558. Todd McCain says:

    Looks like the FBI found nothing.

  559. Mr.Vito says:

    “Looks like the FBI found nothing.”

    But if they had interviewed Ford, then they would have been enlightened by the rehashing of her vague accusations. Don’t you understand?

  560. Toast says:

    I’m in a lemon marmalade-type of mood.

  561. Wes says:

    Dems will send their resources where they sense the best chance of victory. They’ve already spent the money they need to shore up Wexton. All polling has fallen in line with the CW that Wexton is the definite frontrunner. That’s why the Dems didn’t react when the NRCC allocated $5 million to the race.

    It was a one-sided influx of money because one side realized it had already accomplished its goal. At some point in politics one side should acknowledge reality and reallocate resources to where they will have the most impact. Also, it doesn’t necessarily follow if Republicans abandon VA-10 for, say, VA-2, Dems will follow. As with all elections, Dems will do a cost-benefit analysis. If GOP money taken out of VA-10 and sent to VA-2 bolsters Taylor beyond the point where Dems can reasonably expect to win, then they empathically won’t follow.

    Throwing money down a rathole that became an unwinnable race the moment Corey Stewart became the Senate nominee is not a wise way to spend money in a year when Republicans are defense is the most foolish thing the NRCC can do.

    In other words, playing whack-a-mole is not the way to win this cycle.

  562. Mr.Vito says:

    GGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!

    Blech.

  563. dblaikie says:

    I just want to remind folks here that I predicted about 4 months ago, that driven by voter rage (I thought over immigration, but rage is rage) there was going to be a red wave. It was a crazy act of faith. Many of you, even though you were very respectful, told me that I was dreaming. Now of course this red wave scenario is not a lock. But all I have to say is that the branch I am sitting is getting stronger.

  564. Wes says:

    I say that as someone who’s repeatedly expressed admiration for Comstock. Holding the House though is far more important than sending vanity dollars to a Congresswoman with far too many things working against her to win.

  565. Robbie says:

    So now we find out if Flake stunning naivete has another level. He thought the extra week and a FBI background check would calm the waters. Now, the Democrats and the media have begun their predictable “not enough people were interviewed” talking point.

  566. mnw says:

    dbl 588

    Duly noted.

    I wonder if the sudden waft of good news will last for a month, though.

    I suppose my gloomy view is influenced by all the work & money I put into re-electing Jim Talent. He lost because the question became, “Do you want Michael Fox to live, as Claire McCaskill does? Or do you want Michael Fox to die, as Jim Talent does?”

  567. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 4, 2018 at 7:44 am
    Mason Dixon says Nelson leads Scott 47-46. Scott still has a great shot at ousting Nelson.

    – I’m making no prediction on this race right now, but I would certainly like Scott’s chances far more had the party nominated Putnam instead of DeSantis.

    The strong showings by the Republican governors in AZ and TN are a big reason why I think both Senate races will be won right now.

  568. Mr.Vito says:

    “You can’t attack the FBI” lasted 15 minutes.

    Laurence Tribe
    ?Verified account @tribelaw

    Unfortunately it looks like Rod Rosenstein and Chris Wray, both of whom worked closely with Brett Kavanaugh in past GOP roles, may have been more eager to please Trump and McConnell than to get as close to the truth as possible. Too many leads left unfollowed. Sad.

  569. Phil says:

    No question the status of the governor’s races in Arizona and Tennessee are big when it comes to down the ballot senate races in those states. I might add that in my state Abbott’s high double digit lead puts a final stake in Beto’s chances as well – not that he was going to win in any event.

  570. jason says:

    Some people want to call everyone who doesn’t like Trump a RINO.

    That is really stupid.

    Sasse is a conservative and he doesn’t like Trump both can be true.

    Of course, Amoral Scumbag is not a conservative and doesn’t like Trump, both can be true.

  571. Wes says:

    Ben Sasse has a 100% ACU lifetime rating. That’s American Conservative Union for the uninitiated.

    RINO all the way, baby! 🙄

  572. Cash Cow TM says:

    Honk.

    Nothing going on in the lower pasture.

    Except…many of the sheep that do not like Trump and were unsure about voting in November have now said they are voting R for congress due to the insufferable and reprehensible behavior of the D Senators during the Kavanaugh hearings.

  573. Wes says:

    What gets me is that people define “conservative” as Trump support. Trump is one person. He has–surprisingly–governed as a generally conservative President, but he’s not the epitome of conservatism. To declare Republicans who have lifelong conservative voting records to be RINOs simply because of their opposition to Trump is the height of the ridiculous.

  574. Wes says:

    That should be good news for Morrisey, Walt.

  575. Wes says:

    Just to block Diamond Jim…

  576. mnw says:

    Well, Wes, that’s why we have primaries– to settle questions about conservativecucks like Flake & Sasse.

    We’ll see if GOP primary voters in NE dig Sasse as much as AZ primary voters dug Flake.

  577. phoenixrisen says:

    #593 — Boo hoo.

  578. Wes says:

    No argument here, Mnw. I just don’t associate an entire political movement with blind support of one man. When American politics becomes a Maoist cult of personality centered on a single individual as the Democrat Party became when Obama was running for President we’re well on our way to becoming a banana republic.

  579. Phil says:

    I second phoenix’s boo hoo.

  580. Robbie says:

    Ha!

    Kelsey Snell
    @kelsey_snell

    Judiciary committee democrats all filing out of Schumer’s office. All stone faced.

  581. Wes says:

    If Sasse were a Jim Jeffords or Lincoln Chafee type representing NE, then I could see hating him. Since he’s a staunch conservative as defined by an organization tasked with rating such things, I don’t see the reason for all the hate.

  582. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 4, 2018 at 10:51 am
    Well, Wes, that’s why we have primaries– to settle questions about conservativecucks like Flake & Sasse.
    We’ll see if GOP primary voters in NE dig Sasse as much as AZ primary voters dug Flake.

    – The “send a message” crowd already planning for 2020. Wonder what newt has to say?

  583. Wes says:

    The most recent ranking I could find for Ben Sasse’s popularity is 43-33. That’s not spectacular but not horrible and suggests his antipathy toward Trump hasn’t made him toxic.

  584. Phil says:

    While I think the odds the House flips are exceedingly high, I can see a scenario where the Democratic pickup stays in the range of the mid to high 20s. Won’t be enough to prevent the House from impeaching Trump – they will do that for sure and of course will open nonstop investigations, but it will put Republicans in range to get the House back in 2020. Still think odds are Republicans pick up at least one senate seat and maybe two.

  585. Mr.Vito says:

    Good Trump today.

    Donald J. Trump
    ?Verified account @realDonaldTrump
    1h1 hour ago

    This is a very important time in our country. Due Process, Fairness and Common Sense are now on trial!

    Donald J. Trump
    ?Verified account @realDonaldTrump
    46m46 minutes ago

    This is now the 7th. time the FBI has investigated Judge Kavanaugh. If we made it 100, it would still not be good enough for the Obstructionist Democrats.

  586. Phil says:

    Some decent tweets from Trump this morning.

  587. Wes says:

    For those of you looking for good news out of the most recent VA-10 poll, I’ll throw you a bone:

    The poll has an unrealistic turnout of 84% of voters with undergrad degrees and 40% with graduate degrees. That is manifestly too high. Even so, the poll’s topline is in line with recent results out of the district.

  588. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 4, 2018 at 11:03 am
    While I think the odds the House flips are exceedingly high, I can see a scenario where the Democratic pickup stays in the range of the mid to high 20s. Won’t be enough to prevent the House from impeaching Trump – they will do that for sure and of course will open nonstop investigations, but it will put Republicans in range to get the House back in 2020. Still think odds are Republicans pick up at least one senate seat and maybe two.

    – Since last September, I’ve suggested the environment is ripe for Democrats to win 40 House seats. That may still happen, but this is the first time Republican have had anything around which to rally.

    Right now, I think 30 seats seems like a reasonable number. How the data looks in another 10 days will tell us a lot.

  589. Mr.Vito says:

    “Judiciary committee democrats all filing out of Schumer’s office. All stone faced.”

    Hopefully they got info that they blew the blue wave along with SCOTUS.

  590. Phil says:

    30 seats is a reasonable guess at this point.

  591. Robbie says:

    Cry more, libs.

    Now, we find out if Flake comes to the rescue again.

    Manu Raju
    @mkraju

    “What’s the most notable part of this report is what’s not in it,” Feinstein says

  592. Phil says:

    Manchin praying he doesn’t get put in a position where he becomes the deciding vote. Nightmare scenario for him. He would have to be a no if Schumer needs him to stop the nomination.

  593. Phil says:

    Robbie, even Flake can’t be that stupid.

  594. Wes says:

    Ideal scenario:

    One Republican Senator votes against confirmation. that will force Schumer to have all Dems vote against him, leaving Pence to break the tie and giving GOP challengers back home plenty of cannon fodder.

  595. Mr.Vito says:

    Hopefully Brett Kavanaugh is not playing the drinking game with the word “limited” while watching the Democrat presser.

  596. BayernFan says:

    maybe they’ll vote “present”. lol

  597. Phil says:

    That would be delicious, Wes.

  598. Mr.Vito says:

    “Ideal scenario:”

    Only if Flake is the one republican…

  599. Wes says:

    (Possibly?) good news for Republicans:

    The Ras minus the Ras says Trump is at 50-49.

    http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_oct04

    If that’s accurate and holds, Dems may see their advantage melting away in the final weeks.

  600. BayernFan says:

    I dont think it matters whether they are decisive votes. All that matters is whether they are a yes or a no.

  601. Wes says:

    They’ll only vote for Kavanaugh if Republicans already have 51 votes, Bay.

  602. Mr.Vito says:

    “I dont think it matters whether they are decisive votes. All that matters is whether they are a yes or a no.”

    …but he’s saying they would all have to be no if it is the decisive vote.

  603. BayernFan says:

    and if Manchin votes no he’s toast.

  604. BayernFan says:

    regardless if he’s decisive.

  605. jason says:

    Well, Wes, that’s why we have primaries– to settle questions about conservativecucks like Flake & Sasse.”

    Translation: let’s see if we can nominate a deadender who will lose the GE to a liberal Democrat.

  606. Wes says:

    I’m an absolute macchiavellian in politics. If my side can get what it wants while still forcing the opposition into a compromising position, I’m all for it.

  607. mnw says:

    Wes 624

    See 582 above.

  608. Phil says:

    Biggest sigh of relief in history will be from Manchin if Republicans get to 51 votes. Maybe Donnelly as well. Doesn’t matter with Heidi since either way she votes she’s toast anyway.

  609. Wes says:

    To be fair, Jason, I don’t think the NEDP is strong enough now to elect any statewide officeholders, much less a Senator. Even so, a wacko Republican can force the NRSC and the RNC to pour money into the race if a Deadender gets the nod over Sasse.

  610. BayernFan says:

    If K gets 50, then it’s decided, and Manchin is not decisive.

  611. mnw says:

    jason says, “Let’s see if we can hand the KS Governor race to a liberal Democrat.”

  612. Phil says:

    Who besides me would love to be a fly on the wall the first day Kavanaugh is seated and to listen to the conversation he has with Clarence Thomas.

  613. BayernFan says:

    K walks into the room…

    Thomas raises a fist and yells “SQUEE!!”

    fist bump.

  614. Robbie says:

    Manu Raju
    @mkraju

    SIREN: Susan Collins: “It appears to be a very thorough investigation.”

  615. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 4, 2018 at 11:12 am
    Robbie, even Flake can’t be that stupid.

    – I wouldn’t take that bet!

  616. DW says:

    Vox populi

    Sinema 49%
    McSally 52%

    McCaskill 49%
    Hawley 51%

    Obviously they didn’t allow undecided

  617. mnw says:

    WSJ: “Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000 last week– lowest since 1969.”

    1969 was awhile back.

  618. DW says:

    “Who besides me would love to be a fly on the wall the first day Kavanaugh is seated and to listen to the conversation he has with Clarence Thomas”

    we know how that chat goes, I would rather be the fly on the wall the first time Kavanaugh passes Feinstein in the hallway.

  619. Robbie says:

    I’ll repeat this because I think it’s important.

    This is the first time in at least two years the Republican have been united across the board.

    I don’t know whether it makes a difference in November, but this is the first time the polling movement appears real and not just noise.

  620. Mr.Vito says:

    “If K gets 50, then it’s decided, and Manchin is not decisive.”

    So McConnell should tell Collins to hold her vote until Manchin votes.

  621. Wes says:

    That’s the first poll McSally has led in in awhile. I hope it’s accurate.

    Hawley seems to have opened up a small lead over McCaskill.

  622. mnw says:

    DW

    What is Vox Populi, please?

  623. lisab says:

    senator collins,

    how would you like to be chairperson of the democratic senate leadership council

    AND

    when possible, ambassador to tahiti?

  624. Mr.Vito says:

    I would rather be a fly on the wall in that meeting between Schumer and the Judiciary Dems today.

  625. DW says:

    vox populi is an R leaning pollster

  626. Phil says:

    I have been watching 538’s numbers on each of the senate races. Silver and company had actually had Heidi up very slightly until Monday. He now has her losing by three points. Even they see the writing on the wall in that one. Of course they still have Democrats sweeping Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Montana, and WV.

  627. lisab says:

    two things

    a.) this will be a HUUUUUUUGE victory for trump if kavanaugh makes it. there is no way to spin it otherwise. it is also a HUUUUUUUUGE loss for the dems.

    b.) also, trump pretty much let “real conservatives” make his list of judges from which he picked kavanaugh, so if kavanaugh goes down because of someone other than collins, they will be taking out a conservative judge to spite trump — who really only picked kavanaugh because of his campaign promise

  628. Mr.Vito says:

    “This is the first time in at least two years the Republican have been united across the board.”

    Kristol, Frum, Rubin, Wallace, Schmidt,…

  629. lisab says:

    I would rather be a fly on the wall in that meeting between Schumer and the Judiciary Dems today.
    ———————————————-

    if i was the sergeant at arms, i would have extra security from now until the vote

    i could see violence

    and

    at the very least there will be some gnashing of teeth

  630. Redmen4ever says:

    Only a certain kind of white male have friends named Squee.

    You can’t be too careful with that element.

  631. jason says:

    jason says, “Let’s see if we can hand the KS Governor race to a liberal Democrat.”

    Isn’t that what supporting Kobach might do?

    You must be confused.

    The guy he beat by 200 votes would have won by 20 points. Kobach is struggling to beat a raving moonbat in a red state.

    The only people handing seats to liberal Dems are the deadenders.

    SEND A MESSAGE!

  632. Phil says:

    I would like to thank the Democrats on the Judiciary Committee as well as their media hacks for uniting the Republican Party.

  633. DW says:

    As for the senate, right now I am leaning toward this scenario:

    Both NV and AZ hold, as do TN and TX.

    ND easily flips, and I am going to argue that in the end MO flips easier than people expected. Remember last time, Blunt was portrayed as old DC insider, vs. a vet who had the ad showing him reloading the rifle in record time. Blunt won anyway.

    Then I think Indiana flips, and we get one out of two from FL and MT.

    WV voters are the stupidest people on the planet (no offense Walt) and will send Schumer lap dog back to DC.

    Of course the kavanaugh voting can change things, so we will have to see how it plays out.

  634. jason says:

    Deadender logic is great.

    Let’s nominate a really bad candidate for governor of KS.

    If he loses, let’s blame the people who supported a candidate that would not put the seat at risk.

  635. Phil says:

    653

    Those people are not Republicans and have not been for some time.

  636. mnw says:

    538 grades Vox Populi as “B.”

    I notice that almost all GOP pollsters are rated C or worse.

    Vox Pop said Cantor would beat Brat by 24 points, btw.

  637. JeffP says:

    Per Herridge: sources tell @FoxNews that a lawyer for @DNC & Clinton campaign was the previously unknown source providing evidence to FBI Russia investigation in Fall 2016 as FBI/DOJ drafted surveillance warrant for Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

    What Fall of 2016 !!!! As well as Early summer too!!!!

    This is going to be real bad. I mean we knew it along…but it is so bad denial has to be worked past layer by layer with every bit of new information.

    A special investigation with all judicial powers has to be adjudicating this level of corruption.

  638. mnw says:

    jason

    I don’t give a rats adz who people support in the primary. We do all support the GOP nominee in KS against the lib DEM NOW, though, don’t we, jason?

    YOU are the only real deadender here, not me.

  639. Mr.Vito says:

    YOUGOV: Again, as a reminder, we are defining the “American Dream” as the belief that anyone, regardless of where they were born or what socioeconomic class they were born into, can attain their own version of success.

    In general, how personally attainable or unattainable do you think the “American Dream” is for you?

    60-18 (Attainable/Unattainable)

    White: 63-20
    Black: 51-16
    Latino: 58-10

  640. lisab says:

    ‘Unfathomable’: More than 1,200 law professors sign letter opposing Kavanaugh’s confirmation (washingtonpost.com)

  641. lisab says:

    Avenatti: FBI investigation ‘no investigation at all’ (thehill.com)

  642. lisab says:

    FBI ends Kavanaugh probe without talking to dozens of witnesses (msnbc.com)

  643. jason says:

    So mnw, why do you think Kobach is only +1 in the latest poll against raving moonbat Kelly in deep red KS?

    a) He is a weak candidate that is bleeding support from Rs and Indies

    b) He is a great candidate, uniting the party to defeat the Democrat.

  644. lisab says:

    Dem senator on FBI Kavanaugh investigation: ‘It’s obviously a cover-up’ (thehill.com)

  645. DW says:

    Current RCP averages for Dem senate incumbents:

    Heitkamp 42
    Donnelly 43.5
    Manchin 45.7
    McCaskill 45.8
    Nelson 46.5
    Tester 48.3

  646. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 4, 2018 at 11:41 am
    “This is the first time in at least two years the Republican have been united across the board.”
    Kristol, Frum, Rubin, Wallace, Schmidt,…

    – In the case of Rubin and Schmidt, they aren’t Republicans or conservatives. Let’s not get caught up in what a couple of MSNBC hosts say either.

    This has united Trump skeptics and the base in a way not seen, in my view, since the 2014 election. The difference between now and then though is Independents.

  647. lisab says:

    Bigfoot may have been sexually assaulted during drunken camping weekend by kavanaugh (cnn)

  648. Mr.Vito says:

    “In the case of Rubin and Schmidt, they aren’t Republicans or conservatives. Let’s not get caught up in what a couple of MSNBC hosts say either.”

    Awesome. So we can count on you not quoting them anymore?

  649. Senators Buck, Miller, COD, Akin, and Mourdock says:

    I don’t give a rats adz who people support in the primary.”

    Exactly.

    That is why we had senators Reid, Coons, Donnelly, Bennett, McCaskill, Jones, etc.

    They all want to thank you for not giving a rats adz on who people support in the primary.

  650. lisab says:

    Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales: There’s going to be an ‘enormous backlash’ against Donald Trump’s lies (businessinsider.com)

  651. lisab says:

    Decades of research don’t lie: Christine Blasey Ford is more credible than Brett Kavanaugh (usatoday.com)

  652. lisab says:

    Brett Kavanaugh coins are already on the White House Gift Shop (vox.com)

  653. lisab says:

    The Times’ Trump Exposé Is a Compelling Case for Class War (nymag.com)

  654. lisab says:

    100,000 U.S. Christian Churches Demand Withdrawal of Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court Nomination (fortune.com)

  655. Mr.Vito says:

    “So mnw, why do you think Kobach is only +1 in the latest poll against raving moonbat Kelly in deep red KS?”

    At least it is better than Roberts and Brownback were doing at the same point in 2014.

  656. lisab says:

    Brett Kavanaugh’s own testimony disqualifies him from America’s highest court (economist.com)

  657. lisab says:

    given all the media reports listed above

    it seems like the dems are a little upset

  658. jason says:

    People “without direct knowledge” of alleged incident upset they weren’t contacted by the FBI.

    Mark Krasberg, an assistant professor of neurosurgery at the University of New Mexico who was also a classmate of Kavanaugh’s and Ramirez’s without direct knowledge of the alleged incident, had also not heard back from the FBI despite numerous attempts to reach out to lawmakers’ offices and FBI offices directly.”

  659. Mr.Vito says:

    Election Day 2014 RCP Avg:

    Brownback -2
    Roberts -1

    Actual:

    Brownback +4
    Roberts +11

  660. ReadyFirst says:

    And in the middle of the Kavanaugh storm – most states started sending absentee ballots on Tuesday. November should be fun.

  661. Mr.Vito says:

    Kasie Hunt
    ?Verified account @kasie
    52m52 minutes ago

    GRAHAM on Kavanaugh after reading report: “Why don’t we dunk him in the water and see if he floats?!” @LindseyGrahamSC

  662. lisab says:

    if collins wants to end her suffering, why doesn’t she just say she is a yes? (or no for that matter)?

    keeping her decision quiet seems like it invites harassment

  663. BayernFan says:

    will K’s confirmation depress Dem turnout?

  664. mnw says:

    jason

    I think Kobach is only +1 because of fools who take their ball & go home when their candidate loses a GOP primary, jason

    The better to say, “Look how that deadender gave the seat to the DEM!”

    On another topic:

    Some really rare birds are coming out for K strongly: NRO; WSJ; & NYT’s then “Republican” Brett Stephens! That last one actually says he’s “grateful to Trump.” (Obviously I’m dreaming, I think.)

  665. Mr.Vito says:

    For Once, I’m Grateful for Trump

    In the president, one big bully stands up to others.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/04/opinion/trump-kavanaugh-ford-allegations.html

    A few moments have crystallized my view over the past few days.

    (He gives 8 points)

  666. mnw says:

    690 sb “NYT’s token Republican”

  667. jason says:

    49 votes or less now at 7 cents on Predictit.

    If you think he won’t be confirmed, you could make a fortune.

    Messy and Amoral Scumbag could get rich.

  668. Mr.Vito says:

    “keeping her decision quiet seems like it invites harassment”

    Good. Let them be seen harassing the carefully deliberative moderate woman.

  669. mnw says:

    Vito

    690 & 691

    Great minds think alike!

  670. jason says:

    I think Kobach is only +1 because of fools who take their ball & go home when their candidate loses a GOP primary, jason”

    Bingo.

    I predicted this,

    The fault is with those that voted for a candidate that could win.

    Bastards!

  671. EML says:

    Vox populi

    Sinema 49%
    McSally 52%
    =====================
    Kommie Kory math

  672. Mr.Vito says:

    “In the president, one big bully stands up to others.”

    Of course, this is the reason some Trump supporters had been giving for two years as the reason he was elected.

  673. mnw says:

    No, the fault is with those who won’t support the GOP nominee.

    You are the God Emperor-Sun King of straw men, btw, jason.

  674. Diamond Jim says:

    DCC

  675. Mr.Vito says:

    Ed Morrissey
    ?Verified account @EdMorrissey
    1h1 hour ago

    Ed Morrissey Retweeted Byron York

    Yeah, corroboration.

    Ed Morrissey added,
    Byron York
    Verified account @ByronYork
    Sen. Feinstein on FBI Kavanaugh report: ‘The most notable part of this report is what’s not in it.’
    43 replies 380 retweets 1,458 likes

    BA HA HA HA HA HA!!

  676. lisab says:

    If you think he won’t be confirmed, you could make a fortune.
    ———————————-

    if he is not confirmed, it could spark huge turnout in november by the gop — but i doubt it

    rather i think it would spark a huge blue wave

    if kavanaugh is confirmed

    the dems are in trouble

  677. Wes says:

    Kobach has a history as a weak candidate. For example, he solidified Dennis Moore’s place in Congress with a disastrous run for Congress in 2004 that caused Republicans to write KS-3 off till Moore retired in 2010.

    He was on his way to a loss in 2014 until Dems got greedy and tried to take out Roberts. This caused the KSGOP to rally behind all its candidates and sweep Kobach to a narrow reelection.

    He’s not a good candidate and never has been. That’s why he’s displaying such weakness against a moonbat.

    On the other hand, Kobach is a loyal Republican–unlike Christine O’Donnell, whose self-serving 2010 vanity run gave us Chris Coons–and has worked to help local Republicans win. He deserves points for that.

    Even so, that doesn’t take away from his fundamental weakness as a candidate and offputting campaign style.

    That’s why he struggles in a race another Republican would be winning easily.

  678. lisab says:

    also … it is a little startling that the fbi has seemed to support trump on kavanaugh

    they must be afraid of the fisa warrants

  679. phoenixrisen says:

    Gotta give a shout out to the White House and the GOP Senate leadership. That was some masterful political strategy and planning that played out after Kennedy retired.

  680. BayernFan says:

    not over yet

  681. Wes says:

    It looks as if Dems will sweep all statewide offices in MI this year with a new poll showing them with leads of anywhere from 7% to 18%.

  682. Mr.Vito says:

    Dana Loesch
    ?Verified account @DLoesch
    22m22 minutes ago

    Family members of Leland Keyser apparently tell press that Ford “threw her under the bus” and confirm that Keyser did not corroborate story to FBI. A lot of hurt people in this.

  683. Mr.Vito says:

    Rich Lowry
    ?Verified account @RichLowry
    24m24 minutes ago

    Per CNN, new FBI report roughly 1,000 pages long. Mark Judge was interviewed for 3 hours

  684. phoenixrisen says:

    #614 — Probably walked out knowing that the patient called Democratic 2018 Congressional Prospect Of Victory was terminal and about to have time of death called. Pretty graphic and arguably though coldly insensitive analogy but as accurate as I could come up with.

  685. phoenixrisen says:

    #707 — Wes, polling link(s)?

  686. Mr.Vito says:

    Erik Wasson
    ?Verified account @elwasson

    SIREN: Jeff Flake tells us there is no additional corroboration in the fbi file. Agrees with Collins that it was thorough

  687. Hugh says:

    702. I completely agree with your position. Winning builds enthusiasm with the base and losing depresses the base.

  688. Mr.Vito says:

    An open letter to Senator Cory Booker from Rand Paul’s wife:

    My husband, Rand Paul, and our family have suffered intimidation and threats

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/03/opinions/rand-paul-suffer-intimidation-and-threats-kelley-paul/index.html?no-st=1538613026

  689. BayernFan says:

    flake says he has to do more reading

  690. BayernFan says:

    lol they’re joking that he shouldn’t be allowed out of the room!!! he has become a laughingstock.

  691. BayernFan says:

    Tucker: Are his lips moving as he reads?

  692. ReadyFirst says:

    As in the primaries, I think the best case turnout for Dems over Reps was a couple points. Losing Kavanaugh, and the slimy way Dems behaved, depresses turnout and will cement the lack of a blue wave.

  693. Wes says:

    Rand’s wife had better watch out. Cory Booker is bad to the bone–in his own mind.

  694. mnw says:

    Wes

    Nothing you posted about Kobach would justify jason in declining to support the GOP nominee.

    The factions within the GOP coalition have got to be able to trust each other to support a GOP nominee whom they don’t like. Why have a primary otherwise?

  695. Wes says:

    I think you’re missing the point, Mnw. Kobach is not a good candidate. That’s why he’s having a hard time uniting Republicans. If he were a better candidate he’d be in a better position for election.

    He is who he is though.

  696. Wes says:

    I want to stress I don’t oppose Kobach. I have to be realistic and say he isn’t a very good candidate though. Were I his campaign manager I’d be working my ass off to get him elected. At the same time I’d throw a Hannibal Lecter mask on him and hide him somewhere while I sent surrogates out to campaign for him. The less Kansans see of Kobach, the more they seem to like him.

  697. mnw says:

    RE: Manchin’s vote on K:

    I think he is signaling YES, because he just said, “I’m only interested in what [K] did between 23 & 53.”

    That sounds like YES to me.

  698. jason says:

    That’s why he struggles in a race another Republican would be winning easily.”

    No, wes, it’s your fault.

  699. Mr.Vito says:

    MUST READ

    This is what really should be the big story today:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies

    “Nested on the servers’ motherboards, the testers found a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, that wasn’t part of the boards’ original design. Amazon reported the discovery to U.S. authorities, sending a shudder through the intelligence community. Elemental’s servers could be found in Department of Defense data centers, the CIA’s drone operations, and the onboard networks of Navy warships. And Elemental was just one of hundreds of Supermicro customers.”

  700. Mr.Vito says:

    Why would it be Wes’ fault, if Wes would actually vote for him?

  701. jason says:

    See, mnw is a great “uniter of the party”

    Proof:

    “conservativecucks like Flake & Sasse.”

    Sasse, who got 68% of the vote in NE, a real conservative who actually votes conservative about 100% of the time, is a “conservativecuck” He doesn’t deserve any party “unity”.

    That is only for turkeys of a candidate like Kobach, struggling to win against 2 moonbats that are splitting the liberal vote.

  702. jason says:

    Why would it be Wes’ fault, if Wes would actually vote for him?”

    Because wes made a good case of why Kobach is a weak candidate. It’s supposed to be a secret.

  703. ReadyFirst says:

    727. Vito, you’re right, that’s a huge event! Not the act of a friendly nation. Lord knows what data and intel has been transmitted back.

  704. jason says:

    the same time I’d throw a Hannibal Lecter mask on him and hide him somewhere while I sent surrogates out to campaign for him. The less Kansans see of Kobach, the more they seem to like him.”

    LOL

    Yep, one heck of a candidate!

    But hey, let’s blame those that voted for Colyer, who would have won by 20.

  705. NYCmike says:

    Wes says:
    October 4, 2018 at 10:46 am

    Ben Sasse has a 100% ACU lifetime rating. That’s American Conservative Union for the uninitiated.

    RINO all the way, baby! ?

    -ACU ratings determine conservatism?

    Haven’t we played this record before…..is that you, Senator Paul?

  706. mnw says:

    I would vote for both Flake & Sasse in a GE, jason. As proof, I remind you that I even voted for McCain in the GE– even though I’ve never hated any Republican nominee more. Held my nose & did it, though, because… Obama.

    I would give ’till the pain level became excruciating to beat Flake & Sasse in a GOP primary, however.

    Both can be true.

  707. Mr.Vito says:

    If anyone is looking for a reason why Scott may have dipped in the polls, I would say the red tide has been a real big issue that some have blamed on him.

  708. BayernFan says:

    Murkowski saysshes still undecided

  709. ReadyFirst says:

    727. Probably part of the reason Trump is keeping the pressure on China in any new trade deal. He wants to stop the technology transfer.

  710. mnw says:

    Vito

    With 5000 absentees in so far in FL, GOP accounts for most of them: 48/32.

    I doubt that means much, but still.

  711. Wes says:

    Mikey, as a source close to them, can you tell me how Senator O’Donnell and Senator Day plan to vote on Kavanaugh ?

  712. Mr.Vito says:

    735 To clarify, the severity has been blamed on mismanagement of fertilizer runoff from sugar growers around Okeechobee.

    Scott has said it is the federal governments fault for releasing the water from Okeechobee… some are trying to tie Scott to the sugar growers.

  713. Wes says:

    Every little bit Scott can get helps, Mnw.

  714. Mr.Vito says:

    It has been a huge issue in the southern Gulf Coast where Scott needs to pile up votes.

  715. Mr.Vito says:

    https://www.factcheck.org/2010/08/moveonorg/

    “MoveOn.org formed in 1998 to oppose the impeachment of President Bill Clinton; it circulated an online petition “Censure President Clinton and Move On to Pressing Issues Facing the Nation.”

    Time to move on?

  716. jason says:

    The factions within the GOP coalition have got to be able to trust each other to support a GOP nominee whom they don’t like. ”

    Great thinking.

    That worked really well with senators Akin, COD, Buck, Miller, Mourdock, McDaniel, Moore, Angle, didn’t it?

    The idea that there is no consequence to nominating losers is something the deadenders cling to.

    SEND A MESSAGE!

  717. Mr.Vito says:

    Brit Hume
    ?Verified account @brithume
    5h5 hours ago

    On Fox this morning, Dem Sen. Chris Coons said of the earlier FBI reports on Judge Kavanaugh (Dem. Senators have there was sexual/drinking stuff in them) “There is nothing in here that is some bombshell that is unknown.”
    148 replies 683 retweets 2,355 likes

    (This is in regard to the letter from some Judiciary Committee Dems that Grassley mischaracterized the previous confidential FBI checks— Coons and Klobuchar DID NOT sign it)

  718. ReadyFirst says:

    738. mnw, actually, I think that means a lot. In my county, and I’m sure in a lot of others, absentee ballots represented roughly 1/3 of the ballots cast in the primary. I would bet it’s at least a similar proportion in the general. This is why i made my 686. post. At least a third of the general election votes are being cast right now, in the middle of the Kav storm, while Reps are pissed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that ratio increase for the general because in my county, roughly half the requested primary absentees weren’t returned. People are motivated now.

  719. mnw says:

    Democratic Underground makes us at HHR look like one big loving family today.

    “Angry & despondent” pretty well covers it– not just about K, but about the new polling data also.

  720. mnw says:

    RF 746

    Thanks. I hadn’t thought about it that way.

    I just gave Hawley some more money.

    If Hawley ever breaks into the clear, I’ll turn my attention to Rosendale. A dollar goes a long way in Big Sky country. (MT is the most beautiful place I’ve ever been to, btw. Burgundy is #2.)

  721. ReadyFirst says:

    742. Vito, red tide, and the reminder of Scott’s past Medicare issues/accusations. Mostly tide though and the implication that Scott hates the environment. Btw, Scott has been brilliant with his tv ad messaging. Have you noticed the different ads and message, dependent on the channel. Hgtv ads are more touchy freely than the Fox News ads as an example.

  722. jason says:

    NEW: Asked by ABC News’ @caphilltrish if he is leaning on voting “yes” on Brett Kavanaugh, Sen. Jeff Flake says, “Can’t say anything but you can say that I was a ‘yes’ before this … thus far, we’ve seen no new, credible corroboration”

  723. jason says:

    I think he said something.

  724. ReadyFirst says:

    I still have to make it to Montana. It’s on my bucket list. Colorado is my current fav. place. Love Breckenridge, very excited I get to go ski there for a week in December.

  725. CG says:

    Amid all the hot takes and frequent doom and gloom on here over the last few weeks, I said all along that Flake would vote yes, as would the other Republicans.

    I also said the longer this went on, the more it would benefit Republicans visa vis Senate races.

    This FBI investigation will of course never please the partisan left but will go a long way in giving Kavanaugh some vindication in the eyes of other Americans, where there may have been more suspicion otherwise.

    For these reasons, Jeff Flake did the conservative cause a favor.

  726. mnw says:

    On the left, there’s a little whiff of ” it’s 9pm on November 8, 2016″ in the air today!

  727. ReadyFirst says:

    I predict Kav gets 51 rep votes, 2 dem votes, and years of unjustified grief at the end of all this.

  728. Mr.Vito says:

    The NEW left

    Four legs good. Two legs better.

    Brad@briefermadness
    20m20 minutes ago

    Yes. Thousands of people are legally and properly jailed every day based on uncorroborated eye witness testimony.

    Are conservatives wanting to change that rule, or no?

  729. CG says:

    And as uncomfortable as Ms. Mitchell made everyone feel last week, because you wanted some Perry Mason moments, she absolutely served the purpose both of presenting a professional (non-political) brief indicating the allegations had no basis, as well as allowing Republicans to avoid the inevitable narrative that would have lasted for 50 plus years of “all the old white men Republican Senators beat up on a vulnerable woman and made her cry.”

  730. mnw says:

    RF

    I think your vote prediction is exactly correct. Manchin & Heidi.

    You know, Donnelly is a dark horse. He walked his early NO vote back slightly.

  731. CG says:

    Should the old woman who admitted lying about Emmitt Till years ago be told that she had to have been telling the truth?

  732. Mr.Vito says:

    Heitkamp a ‘no’

  733. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 4, 2018 at 11:55 am
    “In the case of Rubin and Schmidt, they aren’t Republicans or conservatives. Let’s not get caught up in what a couple of MSNBC hosts say either.”
    Awesome. So we can count on you not quoting them anymore?

    – I have never quoted either of them. In fact, if you go back in the archives, you will see I did nothing but bash the campaign Steve Schmidt ran in 2008.

  734. Mr.Vito says:

    Benny
    ?Verified account @bennyjohnson
    4m4 minutes ago

    Women’s March leader just criticized “white wives with their white husbands” for supporting Trump. Crowd booed loudly. She then demanded that Trump supporters not be allowed to be “comfortable” at the dinner table or in public.

    This is coming for you conservatives.
    Get ready.

  735. Wes says:

    Say bye bye, Heidi. She must realize Cramer is de facto Senator-elect.

  736. CG says:

    If they folloW Trump’s diet, soon enough they will be uncomfortable at the dinner table.

  737. Phil says:

    No way With 51 votes it is Heidi and Manchin who put Kavanaugh over the top. If Republicans can only muster 49 votes then You won’t find any Senate Democrats who defect – no way no how.

    The only way Heidi, Manchin, or even Donnelly vote yes is if at least 50 Republicans commit to voting yes and they know Kavanaugh gets confirmed anyway.

    Take it to the bank.

  738. Wes says:

    Interesting fact:

    Heitkamp will be the first Dem Senator and first Senator at from the Class One seat in ND to lose reelection. Previously incumbent Republican Senators lost reelection in the state’s Class Three seat in 1944 and 1986.

  739. Wes says:

    At all*

    Phil, Heitkamp is a confirmed no.

  740. mnw says:

    John Fund at FOX quotes Silver as saying that, “The odds of the GOP holding the House have now changed from 1-in-6 to 1-in-4.”

  741. CG says:

    Senate Democrats will insist that no vote be held until Wes is subpoenaed to testify about the “Devil’s Triangle.”

  742. mnw says:

    I want the protesters to go anywhere they want. The more TV cameras, the better. Take a good look, America.

  743. EML says:

    If you think the Kavanaugh circus is absurd, just wait until Ginsberg croaks in election year 2020, Trump nominates pro-life Catholic Amy Barrett, McConnell announces an end to the Biden rule and SCOTUS becomes 6-3.

  744. ReadyFirst says:

    769. I’m disgusted that this was even a topic of discussion in a Supreme Court nomination. This is how the Dems shot themselves in the foot.

  745. Cash Cow TM says:

    Lest we forget, 11 Dems voted YES to confirm Clarence Thomas back in 1991.

    I will take all bets that there will NOT be 11 D votes for confirmation of Kavanaugh.
    #################################
    “In 1991, public opinion polls showed that the vast majority of those polled believed Thomas over Hill.[51] After extensive debate, the Committee sent the nomination to the full Senate without a recommendation either way. Thomas was confirmed by the Senate with a 52 to 48 vote on October 15, 1991,[52] the narrowest margin for approval in more than a century. Vice President Quayle presided over the vote in his role as President of the Senate, partly in case his vote was needed to break a potential 50-50 tie for confirmation.[53] The final floor vote was not strictly along party lines: 41 Republicans and 11 Democrats (Dixon (D-IL), Exon (D-NE), DeConcini (D-AZ), Robb (D-VA), Hollings (D-SC), Fowler (D-GA), Nunn (D-GA), Breaux (D-LA), Johnston (D-LA), Boren (D-OK), and Shelby (D-AL) now (R-AL)) voted to confirm while 46 Democrats and 2 Republicans (Jeffords (R-VT) later (I-VT) and Packwood (R-OR)) voted to reject the nomination; John Glenn was particularly vituperative in his rejection. Ironically Packwood himself would later be engulfed by sexual harassment allegations which ended his Senate career.”

  746. ReadyFirst says:

    771. I think that’s part of the reason Trump saved Barrett, a woman, for the next nomination.

  747. CG says:

    Well, at least Long Dong Silver did not arise this time…

  748. Wes says:

    Republicans seem to be surging at the right time, Mnw.

    If the GOP holds the House the NRCC can blame Feinstein and Schumer for energizing a previously lethargic GOP voting base.

  749. CG says:

    I remember listening to the Thomas/Hill hearings on the radio in a car with my parents on the way to a Bar Mitzvah.

  750. Wes says:

    DCCC, not NRCC, its GOP equivalent.

  751. CG says:

    The GOP has about as much of a chance of holding the House as the Brewers do to win the World Series this year.

  752. Mr.Vito says:

    “I have seen it and I want to re-read parts of it, but my very emphatic opinion is that this set of interviews is at best, most charitably, woefully incomplete. To put it bluntly, it smacks of a whitewash, even a cover up.” – Sen. Richard Blumenthal

    ………………..

    Where is James Comey to defend the FBI?

  753. EML says:

    The GOP has about as much of a chance of holding the House as the Brewers do to win the World Series this year.
    =================================
    Per 538, Republicans have a 24.4% chance of keeping the House (and rising) while the Brewers have a 9% chance of winning the World Series (up from 0% about 2 weeks ago).

  754. Mr.Vito says:

    The Hill
    ?Verified account @thehill

    GOP senators break with McConnell, call for FBI’s Kavanaugh findings to be released publicly http://hill.cm/gfnA6io

  755. jason says:

    Did Bluenthal just call Collins and Flake liars?

  756. Phil says:

    Wes, I think you will agree with me that Heidi’s no is pretty much a confirmation that her internal polling is at least as bad as the recent public polling in her race. She’s given up and knows that even with a yes vote she is doomed.

    It will be interesting to see what Donnelly, who still has an even chance will now do.

  757. CG says:

    Well, if Nate Silver is supposed to be the expert…

  758. jason says:

    Per 538, Republicans have a 24.4% chance”

    It’s also about the chance they gave Trump.

  759. Mr.Vito says:

    NRCC communications director:

    Matt Gorman
    ?Verified account @mattsgorman
    2h2 hours ago

    The SCOTUS fight is having an undeniable impact on the GOP base.

    NRCC low-dollar fundraising facts over the last week:

    Donations: ?? 175%
    Raised: ?? 194%
    Average Gift: ?? 111%
    Average Raised Off Text: ?? 226%

    One text even raised 7x (!) more than our average…