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GOP Leads in TX and TN, Dems Lead in NJ and AZ

CBS News and YouGov released polls for four states this morning showing Republicans up in both Tennessee and Texas while Democrats lead in Arizona and New Jersey.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (CBS/YouGov)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%
Martha McSally (R) 44%

US SENATE – TENNESSEE (CBS/YouGov)
Marsha Blackburn (R) 50%
Phil Bredesen (D) 42%

US SENATE – TEXAS (CBS/YouGov)
Ted Cruz (R-inc) 50%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 44%

US SENATE – NEW JERSEY (CBS/YouGov)
Bob Menendez (D-inc) 49%
Bob Hugin (R) 39%

All these polls were done October 2-5 among likely voters. I am somewhat surprised the number of polls we have been seeing from New Jersey lately. I think it is still fool’s gold for Republicans, but clearly this is no longer the slam dunk Democrats figured it was with the scandal-plagued Menendez as their candidate.

Posted by Dave at 3:44 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (152)

152 Responses to “GOP Leads in TX and TN, Dems Lead in NJ and AZ”

  1. sandiegocitizen says:

    uno

  2. Mr.Vito says:

    Julie Swetnick: ‘I am disgusted and appalled by the way that I have been re-victimized’

    Victimized by Avenatti maybe….

  3. jason says:

    Dos, cabrones.

    60 minutes doing a rescue interview with Heitkamp.

  4. jason says:

    If there is a backlash against Dems it might not show yet in the AZ poll.

    I hope.

  5. jason says:

    Damm, I was not dos…..

  6. jason says:

    Browns win.

    GOP could hold the House.

  7. Bitterlaw says:

    Browns go to overtime again and……win with 2 seconds left. Go crazy, Cleveland. Go crazy!

  8. Tina says:

    Edsel Ford also has “new witnesses”. They heard something in July of this year,

    Hearsay.

  9. Tina says:

    Grassley should send criminal referrals over to fib and Justice re porn lawyer, her client, and Dr. fraud.

  10. DW says:

    updated dashboard

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 Siena | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/44 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Seina) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 47/46 (D-Int) | 48/43 (St. Pete) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 3
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 1
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 45/44 (D-Int) | 46/49 (D-Int) | 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 38/40 (Monmouth) | 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | -5
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | -6
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monm.) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 39/51 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  11. D. Ed Ender says:

    Nice blog you have here.

  12. Mr.Vito says:

    May get another hurricane here yet for the left to demagogue… let’s see if it hits the Panhandle and they say it is retribution for Kavanaugh.

  13. Robbie says:

    I just don’t put a lot of value in YouGov polls. I have been and remain skeptical of Internet polling.

  14. Chicon says:

    The vaunted 538, relied upon by many here to judge the quality of a pollster, gives YouGov a B.

    Are we now deciding to discount 538’s ratings?

  15. Bitterlaw says:

    Chi – All the polls are wrong. Unless we like the result. It has been that way since my first day at HHR more than 14 years ago.

  16. jason says:

    Conservative candidate in Brazil comes up just short of 50% to avoid runoff with communist.

    Bolsonaro 48%
    Haddad 27%

    80% in.

  17. Wes says:

    Bitter Law will be happy tonight. The new season of his bandwagon premieres.

  18. Mr.Vito says:

    “You know how wrong about politics you need to be for like me to notice? Do you know how annoying that is? Like Kanye is a genius, but a musical genius,” Davidson joked. “Like Joey Chestnut is a hot dog-eating genius, but I don’t want to hear Joey Chestnut’s opinions about things that aren’t hot dog-related.”

    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/saturday-night-live-star-pete-davidson-addresses-kanye-wests-pro-trump-rant

    Apparently there are no longer mirrors in the SNL dressing rooms.

  19. MikeKS says:

    If the Rs hold Arizona, we will be at 55 Senators after this – 56 if we hold Nevada. I think we’re going to win Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Indiana, and Florida.

    My upset special is Minnesota, but not there yet…

  20. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes thinks I am a bandwagon fan of The Walking Dead because I did not know it was a series of comic books before it was a tv show.

    Not sure if I should. Zzzzzzzzz or GFY to Wes.

    GFY Wezzzzzzzzzz

  21. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    More bad news for the leftist ninnies, Brazil may be electing its own Trump. Jair Bolsonaro has about 48% of the vote. If he does not make 50%, should pick up the rest in the run off. Like with Trump in the U.S., there have already been some huge anti-Bolsonaro demonstrations. Am around some happy Brazilians tonight.

  22. Wes says:

    You are a bandwagon jumper, Bitter. The comics were popular for nearly a decade before AMC picked up the show.

    You should change your handle to Bitterbandwagonjumper.

  23. EML says:

    Brewers one round closer to the world series. 3 wins down, 8 to go. If the GOP has as good a chance at holding the house as Brewers have of winning the WS, feeling pretty good about our chances.

  24. mnw says:

    MikeKS

    Good to see you posting here. I hope you’re right. However, the polling evidence just doesn’t support anything like that projection right now. As I posted earlier, McSally (for example) has been down in all 6 of the last RCP polls.

    I will say this: if they’re close on election day, they all go the same way– one way or the other.

  25. mnw says:

    MikeKS

    Any thoughts about the state of play in the Sunflower State?

  26. Hugh says:

    Mikeks when you lead the pack people throw spears at you. I think you are closer to right than wrong. I also think McSally wins.

  27. Bitterlaw says:

    The comics were popular with people WHO HAD READ THEM OR HEARD ABOUT THEM.

    I neither read nor heard about them before them. Change your handle to WESTHEPRETENTIOUSDOUCHEWHOMANUFACTURESSTUPIDFIGHTSBECAUSEHEISINSECURE

    A little long. WesDouche says it.

  28. mnw says:

    Hugh

    You KNOW I want you & MikeKS to be right. I’m not throwing spears. I’m testing the tires.

    Out of curiosity, have you ever devoted your life to a campaign you really believed in, & then gone down to a miserable, unexpected defeat?

  29. Bitterlaw says:

    Speaking of The Walking Dead-

    Rest In Peace (again), Dr. Green.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/07/tv-shows/scott-wilson-actor-obit/index.html

  30. Wes says:

    Wow!

    Bitter’s triggered tonight. You might want to watch the blood pressure, Bitter.

  31. lisab says:

    robbie and cg must be still on the ledge from yesterday

    it was a HUUUUUUUGE trump victory

  32. sandiegocitizen says:

    Trump needs to spend some quality time in Arizona. Know he has been there already. With a good effort, McSally can win. Am not as optimistic about Nevada, but its not a write off. Would say 50/50.

  33. sandiegocitizen says:

    31. lisab, a week or so ago this whole board was on the ledge, and ready to make a mass lemming jump. It was hard to reassure everyone the Kavanaugh would have the votes, including Flake.

  34. lisab says:

    the difference is,

    not all posters like it when trump wins

  35. Bitterlaw says:

    Blood pressure is very good according to my doctor. My cholesterol levels are also good. If I didn’t have diabetes, I might be healthy.

    Are you healed from your accident yet, Wes? I know you were really banged up. I still think you are a douche but you are an asset to HHR. I also saw the post on FB by that lib. I do not think you will be getting a Christmas Card from that guy.

  36. Bitterlaw says:

    SDC – I did not waiver. I knew Flake and Collins would vote yes. I thought Murk would, too, but I was wrong.

  37. Mr.Vito says:

    From the woman who brought you “men should shut up”

    “Dem Hirono says Collins’ doubts of Kavanaugh accuser’s claims ‘insulting’”

  38. Tina says:

    Tokyo Rose also said that Kavanaugh had “no corroboration.”

  39. sandiegocitizen says:

    36. I was surprised by Murkowski as well. There has got to be some underlying reason. Wonder if it will ever come out? She was gracious enough to vote “present” to allow Daines to not have to fly in to vote. Surprised at Manchin as well — he knows the left will never forgive him. He really needs to switch parties.

  40. Mr.Vito says:

    “Whatever happens, I’m just glad we ruined Brett Kavanaugh’s life.”

    — “The Late Show” writer Ariel Dumas (deleted tweet)

    https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/stephen-colbert-late-show-writer-im-just-glad-we-ruined-brett-kavanaughs-life

  41. Tina says:

    Murk iwaki is beholden to planned parenthood.

    Also, she was photographed in the halls in deep conversation with Frankenstein,

  42. jason says:

    I did not waver either.

    I knew Amoral Scumbag would be wrong again.

    Call me prescient.

  43. Bitterlaw says:

    Free Pass Tina only talks about Murk and Planned Parenthood. Never a word about Trump and Planned Parenthood.

  44. lisab says:

    ‘I’m just glad we ruined Brett Kavanaugh’s life’

  45. Albert Hodges says:

    Murkowski voted no not only because of her PP funding and their threats but primarily because of the lobbying of the native Alaskan Indians who opposed a prior ruling by Kavanaugh that evidently limited their rights in some way.

    As important as PP is to her, it was those same Indian groups that fueled her write-in campaign after she lost her primary so that she could run as an independent and win her seat again after she was beat in the GOP primary.

    And since people are already predicting the election outcomes, I say that the GOP will be at 55 seats in the Senate and 220-215 in the House when the smoke clears in November.

  46. Bitterlaw says:

    Murk voted present on Kavanaugh because of her constuents? I can respect that.

  47. jason says:

    She didn’t vote present because native Alaska Indians, her constituents are the entire state. Native Alaskans are about 15% of the population.

    Anyone who believes that garbage is delusional.

    She doesn’t deserve any respect.

    I have defended Murk from the RINO hunters, but there is nothing I can say to defend her on this.

    She got taken in by the MSM hype and the Dem character assassination, pure and simple.

  48. jason says:

    He really needs to switch parties.”

    Maybe if he had done it a few years ago.

    Now the train left the station, unless he wants to do it after he get re-elected, and even then he would only last one term.

  49. Chicon says:

    Bitter, does this mean that Senator Sullivan’s constituents are mad at him today? Same constituents, right?

  50. Bitterlaw says:

    Chi – Murk pleased some constituents. Sullivan pleased others. Both upset other groups. The beauty of our system in all its imperfect glory.

  51. Bitterlaw says:

    I don’t want Manchineel to switch parties. I do not trust party switchers.

  52. Mr.Vito says:

    Taylor Swift has bashed Marsha Blackburn and endorsed Bredesen.

    This is really going to hurt Blackburn with the preteen vote.

  53. Mr.Vito says:

    Cory Booker flew straight to Iowa after the Kavanaugh vote.

  54. Phil says:

    Bredesen will now sweep the 8th grade home room vote. Marsha is finished.

  55. Mr.Vito says:

    Hello? Is this thing on?

  56. Wes says:

    I’m mostly recovered, Bitter. Thanks.

    As for the lib who made that smarmy reply to my Kavanaugh post, I found it ironic he accused me of spouting talking points when his entire inane comment was one DNC talking points.

    In any event, I had generally respected his right to his views, but obviously he didn’t feel the need to return the courtesy. Ergo, I deleted his comment and blocked him. I hate blocking people over politics, but in this case given the unwarranted personal attack and condescending fact-free nature of his response, I felt the action was warranted.

    Oh, well. He’s probably convinced himself I was just afraid to engage him—as if I care.

  57. Wes says:

    Manchin has never supported any GOP initiatives. He’s a liberal operating under a moderate veneer. His vote for Kavanaugh was pure political expediency.

    Unfortunately West Virginians, being literally the stupidest people in the history of the entire universe, are likely to fall for it.

  58. Cash Cow TM says:

    Honk.

    Have been watching Walt this week…
    it is exhausting!
    Monday he started the plumbing work in both bathrooms….finished Friday!!!

    Saturday he painted the walls of the big bathroom.

    Mrs. Walt now says it looks like he now has to paint the white bathroom window trim….
    ***********************************
    I reminded Walt of the last time he got snookered like that. He ended up painting 9 doors and trim on both sides.

  59. Wes says:

    I’m sure all 10 adult fans of Taylor Swift will be swayed because she endorsed Bredesen.

  60. Cash Cow TM says:

    I am much disappointed in statements by hottie Taylor Swift…

    No more free milk for her…

  61. Bitterlaw says:

    2 games go to OT today. Already had games end in ties this season. Pretty soon the NFL might need to consider going to the NHL system of 2 points for a win and 1 for a tie.

  62. Cash Cow TM says:

    snafu spelled backward is:

    U FANS!

  63. Cash Cow TM says:

    Ties are like kissing your heifer sister.

  64. jason says:

    She convinced me.

    I won’t be voting for Blackburn.

  65. Bitterlaw says:

    Swift has adult fans (including me). She is more popular with those 20 and older than the younger audience. My daughter and her friends prefer all the former One Direction singers to her.

  66. Wes says:

    Um, Bitter, do you need to join the club Tgca and Mike are in?

  67. Bitterlaw says:

    Still pissed the Eagles lost. However, watching the Giants and Cowboys lose on fieldgoals brightened my gloom a little.

  68. Phil says:

    Bitter is right. Powerful endorsement. Marsha is done.

  69. Bitterlaw says:

    I like her songs and she is hot. Until Kate Upton starts singing, I will stay with Swift. Also, I like a lot of different music – Big Band from the 40s to today’s hits.

  70. Wes says:

    She has a pretty face, but looks damn near anorexic. As for her music, the only guys I know who like it also like other men.

  71. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    52. “I don’t want Manchineel to switch parties. I do not trust party switchers.”

    Agree Bitter, when that Reagan guy switched parties it was clear we were doomed. He actually quoted FDR in his acceptance speech at the Republican convention. The Herbert Hoover loyalist walked out.

  72. Phil says:

    Celebrity endorsements = useless.

    Ask Hillary.

  73. Bitterlaw says:

    SDC – Nice try. Manchin is a lib. He voted for Kavanaugh to save himself in his election. He will continue to vote with the libs after he has secured another 6 years in the Senate.

  74. MikeKS says:

    test

  75. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    78. The world that Manchin knew is over. The liberal democrats will never forgive him for his vote. Would not surprise me to see a campaign spring up telling liberals not to vote for Manchin. Granted, there are not a lot in West Virginia, but it might make his Republican opponent more competitive.

  76. lisab says:

    Still pissed the Eagles lost.
    ——————————

    great game!!!!!

    minnesota won

  77. MichiganGuy says:

    “Some cyclists in North Carolina were nearly hit by a flying deer after the animal was struck by a car and it was all captured on video.”
    .
    https://www.foxnews.com/us/oh-deer-camera-captures-animal-flying-toward-cyclists-after-being-hit-by-car

  78. Hugh says:

    I think party switchers are some of the most loyal. If he won in wv I would love it if he switched parties

  79. Tina says:

    https://m.imgur.com/oTVsKIw

    Meme in Ginsburg falling asleep @STOU and waking up next to Kavanaugh.

  80. Messy says:

    8, 81. Give it a rest Tina, you won. America lost, no need to go further….

  81. Wes says:

    Ebolaboy’s back!

    How the hell are you, Ebolaboy?

  82. sandiegocitizen says:

    83. Messy we feel your pain.

  83. jason says:

    America lost,”

    Moonbat America lost.

  84. jason says:

    Agree Bitter, when that Reagan guy switched parties it was clear we were doomed.”

    Bad analogy.

    The Democratic Party Reagan belonged to is long gone.

    Manchin belongs to the far leftist nanny state Democratic Party of 2018.

    Manchin is a flaming liberal. Always was, always will be.

  85. jason says:

    Still pissed the Eagles lost.”

    Bitter said the Broncos suck, and he was right.

    How are the Eagles doing?

  86. Wes says:

    Reagan was a New Deal Democrat who gradually drifted right after becoming disillusioned with liberalism in the 1950s.

    His progression was Democrat->Independent->Republican.

    Although a reasonably moderate Governor, Manchin has voted in lockstep with the Dem leadership in the Senate since winning election to the chamber and has never supported the GOP on anything but a handful of already decided judicial confirmations. In 2014, Manchin even contributed to a liberal PAC set up to defeat Mitch McConnell despite a pledge never to campaign against a fellow Senator.

    Manchin is not a moderate or conservative but a liberal and will never switch to the GOP. Winning reelection will only liberate him to eschew voting for GOP judicial nominees as a veneer of bipartisanship.

  87. sandiegocitizen says:

    88. Wasn’t the criticism made of Trump that he was recently a liberal Democrat? The Democrats he helped fund were not conservative old Democrat New Dealers, whom Reagan supported.

  88. sandiegocitizen says:

    90. Manchin is never going to be forgiven for his Kavanaugh vote. He is now a political leper to the Democrats.

  89. Bitterlaw says:

    Once Collins and Flake said they would vote Yes, I am sure that Manchin was told to vote Yes by Schumer to be sure to save his seat.

  90. DW says:

    Updated evaluation of Siena polls:

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:
    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.MN_02 – 39/51. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.MI_11 – 38/45. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.IL_06 – 39/40. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:
    NC_09 – 47/42. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.MI_08 – 47/44. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R
    TX_31 – 53/38. Blowout and a wasted poll.
    PA_16 – 50/42. No blue wave here.
    NC_13 – 47/41. No blue wave here either.
    NY_01 – 50/40*. No surprise on this seat.
    IL_14 – 47/43*. Close, and most have this one as Lean R.

  91. mnw says:

    50/47

    Happy Indigenous Peoples Day

  92. DW says:

    whoops…somehow my hard returns were filtered out…

    pasting again:

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:
    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.
    CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.
    PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.
    AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.
    MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.
    CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.
    MN_02 – 39/51. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.
    MI_11 – 38/45. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.
    NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.
    CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.
    CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.
    KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.
    IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.
    KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.
    IL_06 – 39/40. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.
    TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.
    NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:
    NC_09 – 47/42. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.
    WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.
    CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.
    NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.
    NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.
    KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.
    MI_08 – 47/44. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.
    ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.
    TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.
    VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.
    OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.
    IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.
    VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.
    TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.
    FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.
    WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.
    NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.
    WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.
    NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R
    TX_31 – 53/38. Blowout and a wasted poll.
    PA_16 – 50/42. No blue wave here.
    NC_13 – 47/41. No blue wave here either.
    NY_01 – 50/40*. No surprise on this seat.
    IL_14 – 47/43*. Close, and most have this one as Lean R.

  93. dblaikie says:

    Oh how I hope this is true, but Fox is reporting that Susan Rice wants to challenge Senator Collins in Maine in 2020. I can imagine the ads now.

  94. Bitterlaw says:

    C

  95. Diamond Jim says:

    C

  96. Tina says:

    Monday, October 08, 2018

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.

  97. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Emerson College Poll of the TX Senate race courtesy of RRH:

    #TXSen General Election:

    Cruz (R – Inc) 47% (+5)
    ORourke (D) 42%

    @EmersonPolling

    Last emerson poll had Cruz + 1

  98. DW says:

    Florida Southern College

    Nelson (D-Inc) 44%
    Scott (R) 46%

  99. mnw says:

    From now on, all the polling should be post-Freakfest, so if there’s going to be a GOP bump we should start seeing it.

    Tina 101

    Good morning. See 96 above. Highest JA since Feb.’16, right after Trump was sworn in, btw.

  100. Toast says:

    Where’s Heidi?

  101. mnw says:

    DW 103

    Also has Gillum (R) -3 for FL GOV.

  102. Todd McCain says:

    DeSantis hired Trump’s FL campaign manager which should help. He stumbled right out the gate and hasn’t fully recovered.

  103. DW says:

    Link at Drudge:

    GOODWIN: Nation could be sleepwalking into second civil war…

    The problem is where the battlegrounds would be fought. Its largely an urban vs. rural battle. There is no ‘neat’ Mason-Dixon line where states can be easily divided.

  104. Tina says:

    It is interesting re th oh senate. I keep hearing that Renacci is gaining quickly.

    Like to see some polls

  105. Todd McCain says:

    Larry Sweikert keeps saying that but I think he’s FOS.

  106. Wes says:

    To assume Manchin will switch parties is to ignore reality. He’s a good Schumer lapdog running his likely final campaign. He has no incentive to support the GOP on anything after reelection.

    As for the Left’s not forgiving him, they forced Joe Lieberman out of the party for his apostasy on Iraq and other Bush-era foreign policy measures. That didn’t stop Lieberman from still being Harry Reid’s bitch till leaving the Senate in 2013.

    Manchin is going nowhere.

    He snookered the morons in Walt’s state—about 99.99% of the population—one more time by casting a politically expedient vote.

  107. Wes says:

    Though I would love to see Brown fall I see exactly zero evidence Renacci is surging.

  108. Tina says:

    Well, I also heard it this am on my local radio host, Todd.

    No clue where they are getting this from.

  109. Tina says:

    Breaking

    Trump, no plans to fire Redactstein.

    Has faith in Redactstein.

    Redactstein traveling wi Presidemt aboard Af 1 to Florida

  110. Wes says:

    NC-9 is looking more and more competitive for Republicans to hold. Although not strictly speaking a bad candidate, Mark Harris is not the best fit for the district and accordingly slipped behind to a Dem who has the standard so-called moderate profile popular here in the South till the Obama years, when genuine Southern Republicans supplanted the Blue Dogs.

    Harris has been running a very active campaign that seems to be paying dividends with improving poll numbers—including his first lead in a public poll—and a general sense of the tightening of the race. I would still give his opponent a slight but diminishing edge, but Harris is surging at the right time. His decision to target early and absentee voting may help tip the race in his favor.

    Kavanaugh May also have had an effect here as Trump voters in the district have begun expressing disgust with the Dems’ antics at the end of the confirmation process.

  111. DW says:

    Texas Governor:

    Valdez (D) 33%
    Abbott (R-Inc) 53%

    Coattails anyone?

  112. DW says:

    That poll was Emerson by the way.

  113. mnw says:

    The RAS today also shows Strongly Approve/Strongly Disapprove tied at 38– Trump’s best showing since inauguration.

    This could be a possible corroboration of the narrowing enthusiasm gap.

  114. Wes says:

    Leftists in WV are vowing not to support Manchin over Kavanaugh:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-joe-manchin-kavanaugh-vote-20181008-story.html

    I have no idea how much of an effect this will have on his reelection bid. I hope he loses, but I don’t trust the intelligence of people who have repeatedly displayed gross stupidity.

  115. Wes says:

    Cruz is up 47-42 on his side of the Emerson poll, DW.

  116. DW says:

    “Harris has been running a very active campaign that seems to be paying dividends…”

    Its always a puzzle to me why candidates run a very moribund campaign. One would think that the desire would be to win. Take VA_02 and Scott Taylor–my district. He might well hold on and win, but for goodness sake, his web ads are praising how he is trying to stop sea-level rise. Yawn…not exactly an issue on the minds of many. So I went to his web site to sign up as a volunteer. That was well over a week ago, and I have heard nothing back but crickets. Totally ignored my offer to be a foot soldier.

  117. DW says:

    Another comment about the Siena polls. If you look at these polls as the sole arbiter of who wins each seat they polled, and the seats they didn’t poll are split up based on who is perceived as leading based on other polling and rankings, then the Democrats would gain control by just 1 seat. And of course Siena has half a dozen or so polls decided by one point. So house control is very much up for grabs.

  118. Phil says:

    DW touched on something I’ve thought about a great deal of late. I am more and more convinced this country needs to split in two. The loons keep saying they can’t live with us deplorables. Well, I no longer choose to live with the leftist loons either. Do I want to live in a moderately reasonable America that fluctuates D or R and folks accept elections results without having to necessarily like them or do I want to live in a country that is essentially California? Both sides would be happier to split. As DW says, however, how do you even begin to split the country in two geographically?

  119. Phil says:

    The problem for Beto in my state is he can’t get out of the low 40s which is where every Democrat from Gore, Kerry, Obama and Hillary end up. Look it up. That’s what dominating the Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso cities plus Rio Grande valley gets you when you get drilled in the suburbs and rural areas. It’s just simple math – and a candidate like Beto isn’t going to make any inroads in those Republican areas running as a hard left loon. It’s not rocket science.

  120. mnw says:

    Phil

    Country no split. Appomattox. Settled law.

  121. Tina says:

    While I think there will be a drop off between abott and Cruz, it will not be a 20 point drop off.

  122. DW says:

    Phil, I am convinced that had the founding fathers foreseen a day when a state like Illinois would be largely rural, but devastated by the high-tax liberal cesspool of Chicago, they would have written it up in such a way that if a contiguous urban area exceeded a certain percentage of the state’s population, that there would be protections that would kick in where the rest of the state would gain some sort of fiscal and judicial independence from the large city.

    As it is now, the urban cesspool just sits there draining the life out of the helpless citizens in the rest of the state, forcing them eventually to move to a more friendly state, resulting in a sort of runaway death trap for the state. No way to blame the founding fathers as they could not have foreseen all the possible conditions.

    So as it is now, the only way to split up the country would be to establish city-states that would be independent, and forced to negotiate trade deals with separate states around them. This would hold them more accountable, and limit their ability to be leeches on their neighbors.

    Imagine how much better off we would be if NY City, Chicago, Houston, greater LA were independent city-states much like The Vatican, or Luxembourg in Europe. They would be able to partner with the USA for national defense, but would tax themselves (to death if they wish), without harming their neighbors.

  123. DW says:

    126 – I was thinking more about House race coattails from Abbott.

  124. Tina says:

    Ugh, 14 point drop off.

    My Espresso Maker broke.

    And the instant coffee tastes like you know what,

  125. Redmen4ever says:

    split the country into two?
    Wouldn’t this be like dividing the subcontinent into India and Pakistan and then see Pakistan split?
    I suggest splitting the country into three parts: East North Korea (California, et al), Northern Venezuela (New York, et al) and The Other Australia (everything in between plus AK, NH and ME-2).

  126. Wes says:

    If the Left wants to split us up by having all the Pacific states other then AK secede along with every state from MD to ME, I’d be fine with that.

  127. Wes says:

    Ugh! Than, not then.

  128. Redmen4ever says:

    Better idea than splitting the country in two (or even three): The United States should withdraw from the District of Columbia (and build a wall).

  129. DW says:

    And speaking of the founding fathers, one of their big concerns was trial by jury of your peers. They would be shocked and stunned to see what the left did to Kavanaugh, trying him by mob and declaring him guilty on only the strength of a flimsy accusation with no supportive evidence or testimony.

    The founders gave us a Republic, if we could keep it. Roughly half in our country want to throw it away and become a socialist dictatorship.

  130. Wes says:

    I don’t know what good that would do, Red, since we’d just create a new capital.

  131. Tina says:

    ergram
    1m
    On SCOTUS fight, Trump says that Kavanaugh was “a man that was caught up in a hoax.”
    View details ·

  132. DW says:

    I had said during the governorship of the last Republican governor of VA that if he didn’t give northern VA to DC as a gift, he would be the last ever GOP governor of VA. So far my predictions seems right on track.

  133. lisab says:

    They would be shocked and stunned to see what the left did to Kavanaugh, trying him by mob and declaring him guilty on only the strength of a flimsy accusation with no supportive evidence or testimony.
    ——————————-

    no, they were well aware … many of the founding fathers were from massachusetts

    the salem witch trials were well known

  134. lisab says:

    it took 70 years to go from a very rich country in 1950 to modern detroit

    in 1960, it would have seemed perfectly reasonable to offer a little welfare in the form of foodstamps or housing

    baby steps got us here, baby steps to go back

  135. DW says:

    Updated dashboard:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    NY_23 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OH_10 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_06* R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_18 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 167 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    MI_06 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    TX_31 R | 170 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    WI_06 R | 171 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    PA_16 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 3.5
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    NY_24 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.3
    MT_01 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    CA_50 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_07 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    IL_14 R | 183 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 184 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 186 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AR_02 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_10 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WI_01* R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 192 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.8
    NE_02 R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    TX_23 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.6
    PA_01 R | 197 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.3
    WV_03* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 199 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    NM_02* R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1
    FL_26 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.8
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    IL_12 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    MN_08* D | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.4
    TX_32 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    ME_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IL_06 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    WA_08* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    KS_03 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.8
    MI_11* R | 208 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Toss | -1.3
    CO_06 R | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Toss | -1.4
    FL_27* R | 206 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.5
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Toss | -1.6
    AZ_02* R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    PA_07* R | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_03* D | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 197 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    NV_04* D | 195 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    CA_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    NJ_02* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.4
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    OR_05 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  136. lisab says:

    my favorite part of the current mess

    is that al franken gave up his seat willingly

    i’m sure the dems thought that would get them half a dozen gop seats in payment

    not kavanaugh 🙂

  137. DW says:

    and dashboard of actual polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 6
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/44 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 47/46 (D-Int) | 48/43 (St. Pete) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Seina) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 38/40 (Monmouth) | 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | -5
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | -6
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 39/51 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  138. DW says:

    Of course with Franken there was an actual photograph of him groping a woman.

  139. lisab says:

    there was an actual photograph of him groping a woman.
    ———-

    with teddy there was an actual body

    usually dems don’t willingly give up power

  140. DW says:

    144 – you have me there…hard to imagine any scenario worse, but where a politician survives.

    1. A party whose attendees are married men, along with younger attractive women.

    2. The party has plenty of booze available.

    3. One of the politicians goes out alone in the car with a young woman who leaves her purse and hotel key at the party, even though it was stated later that she was needing a ride back to the hotel, and the politician’s driver was available to do the chore of driving the woman, but was waved off by the politician who insisted on driving the woman himself.

    4. Rather than returning to the ferry, he drives her out to the oceanfront, at night.

    5. Somehow misses the angle of a bridge and flips the car into the water.

    6. The politician gets out of the car, leaving the young woman to die, and refuses to report it until he can get sobered up, exchanging her life for his continued political career.

    But despite all this, the guy ends up being senator for life.

  141. BayernFan says:

    nt

  142. lisab says:

    with a young woman who leaves her purse and hotel key at the party
    ————————-

    and underwear …

    i could totally believe they were not lovers and he was just driving her home, or at worst he was trying to hit on her when she was drunk

    except … she was going commando in the car. how often did women in the 1960’s go sans culotte?

  143. lisab says:

    my mother always told me to make sure i had clean matching underwear on just in case i got hit by a bus, (or got in a moving vehicle with a kennedy), so that i would not embarass her

    of course … i would have thought that she would have had bigger concerns if i got hit by a bus … but … that is an actual thing mothers used to tell daughters

  144. lisab says:

    The president recognized Down Syndrome Awareness Month with a statement celebrating the “lives of the more than 250,000 Americans with Down syndrome,” pledging a deeper “understanding of Down syndrome and learning more about how we can ensure the beautiful people with Down syndrome are able to fully participate in society,” and honoring the “sanctity of their lives, at every stage.”

    “All people are endowed by their Creator with dignity and the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” Trump said. “Despite some persistent myths and stigmas, even within the medical community, our Nation strongly embraces the undeniable truth that a Down syndrome diagnosis is an opportunity to embrace God’s gifts.”

    “I stand for life – in all of its beautiful manifestations – and I, and my Administration, will continue to condemn the prejudice and discrimination that Americans with Down syndrome too often endure,” he added.

  145. lisab says:

    800 children as young as 10 have been given sex change drugs: Huge rise in puberty-blocker jabs revealed as transgender 17-year-old who was born a boy claims the NHS treatment saved her life

    Llyr Jones, from Aberystwyth, said she would have killed herself without drugs

    More than 600 young people are receiving puberty-blockers at London hospital

    A further 200, meanwhile, are undergoing the treatment at a clinic in Leed

  146. BayernFan says:

    NT!

  147. lisab says:

    ‘A Shadow of Slavery’s Power on America Today’: Ocasio-Cortez Calls for Abolishing Electoral College

    ‘It is well past time we eliminate the Electoral College.’