Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 5% in TX

Emerson College released a new poll for the US Senate race in Texas today that shows Ted Cruz up by 55 over Beto O’Rourke.

Ted Cruz (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 42%

This poll was done October 1-5 among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 12:37 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (341)

341 Responses to “Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 5% in TX”

  1. Wes says:

    No es ningúna sorpresa.

  2. BayernFan says:

    Happy Columbus Day!!

    He was a great American.

  3. Tina says:

    I have Beto winning.


  4. Victrc says:

    Fifth!! I consider that a moral
    Victory since there will eventually be 1,000 posts!

  5. Victrc says:

    Anyway… has anyone noticed that Robert Francis (Beto) has failed to break out of the traditional 42% ish range that most Dem candidates end up getting, in any poll.

    Don’t be surprised if he does not get more than that. The only numbers will be Cruz numbers, which will increase to the 53% range, with the rest going to other parties.

    Two weeks ago you could not see a Cruz sign anywhere and now they are everywhere, even in Austin.

    This might be a microcosm if the entire election, Republicans coming home after realizing what is in store should the left win.

  6. Blobbie says:

    I have Beto winning. — Jebot

    Fake News! I would never say that.

    I said, I have a really bad feeling about Cruz-Beto. I think Texas could be an election day surprise. If Texans supported Cruz, why isn’t he 50 poiunts ahead? This is a terrible sign and could signal a Democrat win in Texas.

  7. Human Question says:

    I have Beto winning.


  8. DW says:

    Here is my analysis and commentary on poll closing times. The idea is anticipate what the early results tell us and how soon the race for Congressional Control will be officially called.

    *indicates only a portion of the state closed, with the rest closing in the next hour due to time zones. Some states are called on the first hour, most are not.

    All times are EDT:

    >> 6:00 pm:

    IN*, KY*

    Some forecasters want to believe IN_02 and IN_09 are just likely R. They probably will both go strongly GOP, but lacking predictive value for the rest of the country.

    The big race this hour is KY_06, ranked a pure tossup by all forecasters. This will be the first early indication as to the direction of the evening.

    As to the senate, obviously Indiana will be right at the center of attention. Should Donnelly prevail, it would keep Democrat hopes alive for takeover, but if Braun wins, then GOP may likely be declared holding the senate.

    >> 7:00 pm:

    FL*, GA, SC, VT, VA

    Florida is split into two time zones but results should quickly come in at the 7 pm close in several key districts including FL_26 and FL_27. Several other seats are ranked Likely R, and would warrant a glace. The same goes for GA_06 and GA_07.

    Also closely watched will be VA_02, VA_05, VA_07 and VA_10. The way these go will be an early indication as to the direction of the whole evening. If the GOP can get by with only losing VA_10, then their hopes of retaining the house are still intact. Any of those others flip and its likely over.

    The big senate race in Florida will also be watched carefully, and not likely be called until late into the night.

    >> 7:30 pm:

    NC, OH, WV

    NC_02, NC_09, and NC_13, along with OH_01, OH_12, and WV_03 will be carefully watch for possible flips from R to D. If the Dems come up empty, on top of earlier misses in VA, FL, and KY, then it could contribute to a growing sense that they are not going to get house control.

    The race to unseat Manchin and Brown will be watched, but are not likely to yield flips from D to R.

    >> 8:00 pm:

    CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, MI*, NH, NJ, PA, RI, TN, AL, FL, IL, KS, MS, MO, OK, SD*, TX*

    House races to start tracking at this hour: ME_02 (which will take hours to count), MI_08, MI_11, NH_01 (see note one ME_02), NJ_03, NJ_07, NJ_11, PA_01, PA_07, PA_10, IL_06, IL_12, IL_13, IL_14, KS_02, KS_03, TX_07, and TX_32

    Senate races to start watching include TN, MO and TX.

    >> 8:30 pm:


    AR_02 is a pipe dream for Democrats.

    >> 9:00 pm:

    NY, LA, MI, MN, NE, WI, AZ, CO, KS*, NM, SD, TX, WY

    Another large cache of house races added to the list of those to track: NY_01, NY_11, NY_19, NY_22, NY_27, MN_01, MN_02, MN_03, MN_07, MN_08, AZ_01, AZ_02, CO_06, NM_02, and TX_23

    For the senate: AZ

    >> 10:00 pm:

    IA, ND*, ID*, MT, OR*, UT, NV

    House: IA_01, IA_03, UT_04, NV_03, NV_04

    Senate: MT, NV, ND

    >> 11:00 pm:

    ND, CA, ID, OR, WA, HI

    House: CA_10, CA_25, CA_39, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, CA_50, WA_05, WA_08

  9. lisab says:

    ‘A Shadow of Slavery’s Power on America Today’: Ocasio-Cortez Calls for Abolishing Electoral College

    ‘It is well past time we eliminate the Electoral College.’

  10. Redmen4ever says:

    The Indians didn’t have a wall.

    Many Europeans came here as minors, making them dreamers.

    Once they got here, the Europeans started having anchor babies.

    The Europeans refused to learn the indigenous languages.

    Nor in other ways to assimilate into the indigenous cultures.

    Then they became the majority.

  11. lisab says:

    Pelosi Files Request For All Records Of FBI Kavanaugh Interviews

  12. lisab says:

    Planet has only until 2030 to stem catastrophic climate change, experts warn (

  13. NYCmike says:

    In regard to Feinstein, I would think that California Republicans would make an all-out effort to vote for her opponent. It would be better to have a clear leftist who is male, as opposed to some woman who can maintain an air of moderation when she is portrayed in the media.

    Let the veils come off.

  14. Redmen4ever says:

    Beto just needs another $40 million.

    Here, I wrote this just for Beto. I call it Beto My Hero.

    Beto, Bezoz, Beany and Cecil
    Billions and Billions, Carl Sagan, Mayor Bloomberg
    Cruz, Boose, Brett and The Donald
    Russia Conspiracy, Rape Trains, Baseball Tickets and SqueeBoof

  15. lisab says:

    one very bad thing i have noticed is that the dems are becoming concentrated in very dark blue places, where very few of the voters are republican, while the reps are in control in many purple areas.

    this pushes the dems to become more radical to match their deep blue electorate, while the gop in places like wisconsin and minnesota have to at least be somewhat reasonable, because independents in tose states are a very big part of the voters

    in the long run, this will be bad for the dems unless they can win in some purple states.

    as evidence, the major names being floated as the dem 2020 nominee are not likely to appeal to independents …

  16. lisab says:

    actually, biden could beat trump, but he is very old

    i cannot think of another major dem who is even slightly considered “working class”

  17. gameboy says:


    In 2016 Biden would have beat Trump. That ship has sailed…..Joe missed his opportunity.

  18. Wes says:

    Lisa, while I think Ortiz is using the wrong argument for eliminating the Electoral College, I would advise Republicans to start focusing as much on winning the popular vote as on winning the EC. If Republicans routinely become the party that wins the presidency while losing the popular vote, Dems will start making a full-court press for abolition of the EC. That won’t happen any time soon, but a constant drumbeat of it combined with a continued perception that the GOP can’t win the popular vote would make a change quite possible down the road.

    Winning the EC while losing the popular vote used to be a rare occurrence. It never happened in the 20th Century and occurred only three times in the 19th Century. Now not even 20 years into the 21st Century, it’s already happened twice. That’s the kind of thing that can effect a change miluch as Jefferson and Adams triggered the adoption of the 12th Amendment and Roosevelt triggered the adoption of the 22nd Amendment.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    This idea of splitting the country without a war doesn’t seem feasible. There are thousands of complications.

    Just to pick two… do you plan on giving up Pearl Harbor? and sharing nukes?

  20. Diamond Jim says:

    You wouldn’t need to worry about the nukes. Blue America wouldn’t want them.

  21. lisab says:

    Just to pick two… do you plan on giving up Pearl Harbor? and sharing nukes?

    who gets the debt?

  22. Mr.Vito says:

    “You wouldn’t need to worry about the nukes. Blue America wouldn’t want them.”

    They sure as hell wouldn’t want Red America to have them.

  23. Bitterlaw says:

    Don’t break up the country. I need 4 distinct seasons of roughly equal length.

  24. Wes says:

    How would dividing the country deny you seasons, Bitter?

  25. Wes says:

    Dems has better hope Ebola doesn’t hit again and cost them another midterm.

  26. Mr.Vito says:

    GALLUP: GOP Drives Satisfaction With Governance to 38%

    (highest since 2009 and 1 point above historical average since 2001)

    Trump up to 43%

  27. Bitterlaw says:

    Depends on the way it is divided. I like the Northeast’s weather. No way could I go South. I remember going to Alabama on a college tour in 2016. It was 5 degrees when I left Philadelphia. It was 50 at the University of Alabama and people were bundled up. I wore a sweatshirt on the tour. The tour guides kept saying, “Don’t worry. Winter is usually not this bad in January.”

  28. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m not sure it has been more obvious in my lifetime why we need a republic instead of a democracy. The left keeps attacking the system by referring to popular vote arguments.

    I would like to see the GOP/Trump hammer the connection between mob rule to defense of the republic, constitution, etc.

  29. Redmen4ever says:

    Who gets the nukes?

    There’s a part of me that says we should do what Czechoslovakia did, when it peacefully split: A bunch of accountants were dispatched to total up the value of the national assets that each successor country inherited, apportion part of the national debt $1 per $1 to the successor countries according to those assets, and apportion the remainder of the national debt on some equitable basis, perhaps by population or perhaps by state GDP.

    There’s another part of me that says who cares who gets the nukes, other than the Euroweenies.

    There’s yet another part of me that says there are big chunks of blue states that are salvageable, and we should support our brothers and sisters in those states in breaking away from their masters. E.G., Illinois outside of Cook County, which we could admit as the state of Lincoln.

  30. Mr.Vito says:

    Rick Scott and Donald Trump need to be ready for the potentially major hurricane later this week. That will be another news cycle.

  31. DW says:

    Siena, perhaps not wanting to poll any more competitive house races out of fear of showing GOP gains due to Kavanaugh, are taking a break and polling NV, TX, and TN senate races instead.

  32. Todd McCain says:

    Agreed; media will always want to paint a bad news cycle.

  33. Messy says:

    28. It did, in the form of Brett Kavanaugh’s whining.

  34. mnw says:


    The Wise Men are citing Vox Populi polls of “active voters” today. Since I had never heard that term used in polling before, I went to VP to investigate. “Active voters” means “registered voters.” Simple as that.

    VP has Hawley up +2 in MO among RVs (“active voters”) 51-49, which is encouraging, for reasons everyone here understands I’m sure.

  35. mnw says:

    P.S. on 37

    Similarly, VP has McSally +2 in AZ among RVs (“active voters”)– the first time I’ve seen McSally ahead in any poll in a very long time.

    In Chris Wallace’s interview yesterday with Romney McDaniels (RNC vice chair), Wallace suggested that the GOP energy pill may help more in Senate races than in House races– if it exists at all.

  36. Messy says:

    20. Thank you Wes!!!!!

    I would buy all their albums but I’d never in a million years vote for them for elected office.

    Bad people usually make the best art.

  37. Messy says:

    37-8. By “active voters” they mean those who voted in the last couple of Miderterms.


    If you can’t quote Churchill, who can you?

  38. NYCmike says:

    “If you can’t quote Churchill, who can you?”

    -This is a direct result of political correctness pushed by liberals, Democrats, and the media.

    Please take responsibility for what your beliefs are leading to.

  39. Mr.Vito says:

    “If you can’t quote Churchill, who can you?”


  40. lisab says:

    If you can’t quote Churchill, who can you?

    don’t worry messy

    your ministry of truth, the dnc, will send you an updated list soon

  41. Wes says:

    On a post by a friend of mine on his Facebook pag, a lib is trying to delegitimize Kavanaugh by saying Dems have bigger constituencies than Republicans. When I pointed out to him the Senate is not an apportioned representation lal body, he tried to say Republicans were cheating and subtly threatened “bad things” because Dems think Republicans are cheating. Then he went off on a tangent about the mid-decade TX redistricting from 2004.

    I asked him why he wasn’t upset Dems held majorities in the TXCD throughout the ‘90s and past 2002 despite averaging 35% of the House vote. I piled on asking why MD has only one Republican Congressman despite Republicans l’ getting 35-40% of the aggregate House vote there and asked if it was fair Dems got 43% of the House vote here in NC to the GOP’s 55% in 2010.

    He hasn’t responded to my pointing out his hypocrisy yet.

  42. mnw says:


    Vox Populi could explain the concept of “active voter” better than they do, but they include ALL REGISTERED VOTERS since 2012, plus anybody who voted in either of the last 2 midterms.

    Kavanaugh is a big plus for Hawley in their mealy-released poll showing him +2, btw.

  43. Wes says:

    I should say Dems got a 7-6 majority in the NCCD in 2010 even though Republicans won the aggregate vote here 55-43.

  44. mnw says:

    46 sb “recently-released”


    Did u know that three iii’s honest-to-God posted here that “Gore would’ve prevented 911”? The “Ebola!” thing was not even three iii’s WORST stupidity.

  45. lisab says:

    yeah, i have seen the 9/11 post several times

    i am actually surprised that the dems are very supportive of islam.

    i get that they want to curb the power of christianity in the country. but this is one case where the enemy of your enemy is not your friend.

    muslim communities are the polar opposite of liberal communities.

  46. lisab says:

    karma is a bitch!

    CNN White House reporter Kaitlan Collins is forced to apologize after her old homophobic tweets referring to people as ‘f*gs’ resurface

    sooooooooooo … now cnn is saying … it was a long time ago and does not matter …

    you could not make this stuff up!

  47. Chicon says:

    Lisa, I went out with Karma once, and I can confirm she’s a bitch.

  48. CG says:

    Was she wearing Red, Gold, and Green, and might she have been a “Boy?”

  49. CG says:

    Columbus Day is not going well for the Cleveland Indians…

    Has to be a scary feeling right now for the Atlanta Braves and Washington Redskins.

  50. bartman says:

    #5 Victrc,

    Same here. Three weeks ago you couldn’t find a Blackburn sign. Now they are popping up everywhere. I think TN conservatives woke up during the DC’s version of the “Jerry Springer Show.”

  51. CG says:

    If the FBI contacted me, I could tell them that I’ve witnessed Jerry Springer drunk on a few occasions.

  52. Tina says:

    Redactstein appears safe for now.

    Strange that media reports keep suggesting he will be a goner, yet Trump keeps him.

  53. CG says:

    I truly feel badly for Cleveland fans.

  54. NYCmike says:

    Jose Ramirez with another 0-fer……when your #3 hitter can’t hit in the playoffs, and your bullpen implodes, Chief Wahoo gets the sadzzzzzzzzzzzz

  55. Phil says:

    Geez, that ought to piss off any American right or middle of the political spectrum… what do we hear from the lefties like Messys?…….. crickets

  56. Wes says:

    So these are the “bad things” some lib on Facebook threatened because of the Kavanaugh confirmation a few hours ago.

  57. lisab says:

    a hurricane is going to hit florida

    kavanaugh karma

  58. Bitterlaw says:

    I just turned on MSNBC to see if Chris Matthews will burst into flames when Kavanaugh is sworn in again.

  59. Bitterlaw says:

    Ginsburg is there. She looks really really really old and tired. Of course, she probably will refuse to give up her seat even after she is dead.

  60. Bitterlaw says:

    Justice Kennedy is also there and he looks very relieved to be free of SCOTUS.

  61. lisab says:

    we need to rename columbus day, becaue columbus was a murdering bastard … any suggestion? some suggestions

    aztec day
    inca day
    carribe day
    apache day

  62. mnw says:

    phoenix 59

    The article you linked to doesn’t support a “red wave” scenario. I wish it did.

    It does suggest some help for the GOP at the margins among indies, & recent MO poling seems to support exactly that– a modest boost among indies. Period.

  63. Bitterlaw says:

    And Trump sticks it to the Dems again in his speech.

  64. mnw says:

    P.S. to 68

    The article linked in 59 shows indies hated the way BOTH DEMs & GOP handled the K confirmation– & by equal margins.

  65. Bitterlaw says:

    The Incas are great. A little too close to llamas but that’s their thing, not mine.

  66. lisab says:

    The Incas are great.

    really good at human sacrifice

  67. Bitterlaw says:

    I think the balloons and streamers dropping from the ceiling when he was sworn in again was a bit much.

  68. Bitterlaw says:

    Kavanaugh thanks Roberts for being a great Chief Justice. NYC hardest hit.

  69. News You Can Use says:

    Don’t trust atoms. They make up everything.

  70. EML says:

    Yes, let’s celebrate cannibalism and human sacrifice instead of Columbus.

  71. Bitterlaw says:

    Columbus sucked. So did the natives in the America’s.

  72. Hugh says:

    Poll was only 70% likely voters. 20% never heard of Schumer

  73. Bitterlaw says:

    Kavanaugh’s speech was very gracious. Trump was a douche again. Whatever.

  74. Waingro says:

    Florida Senate:
    Rick Scott (R) 46% (+2)
    Bill Nelson (D) 44%

    @FLSouthern College 10/1-5 #FLsen

  75. mnw says:

    Imo, Nate Cohn at 538 is “backing & filling” a little– saying this House deal? Lotta factors; local terrain; GOP has some things going for it, yadda yadda

    Footsteps, bad rug boy?

  76. Bitterlaw says:

    I really want to believe that lisab would support firing this teacher and never letting her teach again but you never know.

  77. lisab says:

    i am not a big fan of firing anyone for saying something stupid on social media

    calling for murder though seems justifiable firing

  78. Phil says:

    Grade school teacher. Sounds like a lovely person. Another leftist loon who has gone crazy and has no sense of decency.

    I’m kind of like Lindsey Graham on this. I hope to God these people don’t get power.

  79. Phil says:

    I’m not a fan of going after people for what they say on Twitter, but in this case she has put her school district in an Impossible situation. They have no choice but to let her go.

  80. mnw says:

    IN SEN debate 2nite.

  81. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “The Incas are great. really good at human sacrifice.”

    The Aztecs were the real butchers. They liked cutting out hearts while the victim was alive and holding it up while it was still beating. They sacrificed thousands at a time. Sometimes they attacked friendly neighboring Indians to capture more victims.

    The Spanish defeated the Aztecs with so few troops because all the neighboring Indian tribes aligned with them and provided tens of thousands of warriors. In reality it was a major Indian war, with minor Spanish participation.

  82. Wes says:

    Then the Spanish ground under and enslaved all the Indian tribes from California to Argentina. Good tradeoff.

  83. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    If the FBI interviewed me, I would tell them there are some people who are more pleasant to be around when they are drunk.

  84. mnw says:

    She’s too pitiful to fire.

  85. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    88. “Then the Spanish ground under and enslaved all the Indian tribes from California to Argentina. Good tradeoff.”

    I disagree. There were a lot of abuses, but there was some good too — particularly what was done by a lot of missions and priests. Sorry, but I think we tend to idealize Indian life. For example a lot of tribes in the West would bury live children with their chiefs and major warriors so they would have servants in the afterlife.

  86. Bitterlaw says:

    Great. Because the Eagles lost yesterday, I have to hope the Saints beat the Redskins. I hate the Saints even more than the Redskins. That goes back to when the national consensus was I had to want the Saints to win the Super Bowl because GWB killed their fans. I used to have heated battles with MFG over it.

  87. Wes says:

    I wasn’t idealizing the Indians. They were just as capable of abuses as any other people. That doesn’t excuse the documented brutality the Spaniards engaged in New Spain though.

  88. Mr.Vito says:

    Very Early in the ongoing Siena poll, Cruz and Blackburn both lead by 10 (about 140 and 110 responses respectively).

  89. Bitterlaw says:

    Drew Brees is less than 50 yards away from grabbing second place from Fabre for passing yards. Just think how many yards Walt would have if he had signed that contract with the Packers in 1933 and was still playing.

  90. Bitterlaw says:

    Favre. I hate autocorrect.

  91. MichiganGuy says:

    Alaska Governor:
    Dunleavy (R) 47%
    Walker (I-inc) 27%
    Begich (D) 23%
    Alaska Survey Research

  92. Bitterlaw says:

    Brees now holds the record for passing yards.

  93. Cash Cow TM says:


    “SHE’S BACK! Hillary Coughs Uncontrollably…”

    I heard that Hillary Clinton only coughs when she is lying.

  94. Messy says:

    one HUNDRED!!!!!!!! Ta-DAAAAAAAAA~!

  95. Messy says:

    60. Yup.

  96. Cash Cow TM says:

    What would the reaction of the left be if a Black man was accused of a sexual crime by a white accuser…

    His accuser named five people who were present at the time of the assault and who could support her claim of a sexual attack.

    All 5 people she named signed sworn statements that the crime she alleged happened never happen and they can not support the details of her claim of sexual assault.

    Would the leftists be demonstrating in the halls of congress and the streets of America to believe and support the accuser, and demand “justice” that the accused person be punished…?

    just like they are doing in Dr. Ford’s allegations against Kavanaugh?

  97. NYCmike says:

    “60. Yup.”

    -You are sad. That display of anarchy in Portland, especially with the police standing down, is a worse situation than anything the teenage Kavanaugh was alleged to have done to any individual.

  98. mnw says:

    101 Yup.

    “Gore would’ve prevented 9/11.”


    “Ebola cost the DEMs the midterm.”


    perjures (sic) sarcasticly (sic) disintigrate (sic)?


    YOU are the most illiterate assclown in the history of mankind on earth?


  99. NYCmike says:


    Is this the speech where President Trump was a douche?

    I am trying to figure out what part you were speaking about.

  100. Redmen4ever says:

    Cook rates TN and TX Senate races as toss-ups.
    Realclear rates TN as toss-up and TX as Lean Republican.
    Sabato rates both as Lean Republican.

    Things have changed.

  101. Redmen4ever says:

    For a long time, a stumbling block to deciphering the Aztec language was the number of people killed to dedicate the Temple Major in their main city. The inscription couldn’t possibly mean 80,000 people were killed.

  102. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – Exactly. No need to mention the Dems or confirmation fight at all tonight. Now nobody is talking about Kavanaugh’s dignified remarks.

  103. BayernFan says:

    President Trump was spot on with his comments. It needed to be said. At that occasion. If it upsets MSNBC, then all the more reason it needed to be said.

  104. mnw says:

    IN SEN debate tonite:

    Apparently, from what he said, Sen. Donnelly (D-inc) is a really BIG supporter of PDT? Who KNEW? Gosh… I’m so confused!

    BF, your thoughts?

  105. Bitterlaw says:

    I want Trump to fight. However, what he has never learned is what I tell my players (I learned it from another coach). Win with class. Lose with grace.

  106. NYCmike says:

    Speaking out and defending the individual and the principle of innocent until proven guilty……did he mention Democrats, or did Trump mention the events of the past weeks?

    As for Kavanaugh’s dignified remarks, I am surprised by his statements of Trump standing solidly behind him, and the President and First Lady being so wonderful………the media could have totally spun that into a negative, showing that Kavanaugh is Trump’s puppet.

  107. mnw says:


    No. War.

    Win or die.

    They really want to kill us.

  108. Bitterlaw says:

    Given how many times BF was wrong during the confirmation fight on tactics and likely voting, no wonder he keeps the streak goi g tonight.

  109. NYCmike says:

    “Win with class. Lose with grace.”

    -Agreed, to a point.

    The political arena does not have many rules, and we know Democrats don’t follow any rules…….once again, Trump is showing why he won, where others could not.

    For gosh sakes, Trump has transformed Lindsey Graham into Lindsey Granite!

  110. MichiganGuy says:

    Minneapolis teacher who tweeted about killing Kavanaugh placed on paid administrative leave.

  111. BayernFan says:

    Donnelly has to win over GOP voters to win. Trying to use the old Bayh playbook.

  112. Bitterlaw says:

    They don’t want to kill all of us. Most of us are not that important. They can take me out if I rank high enough. I’m ready to go at any time.

  113. BayernFan says:

    I advocated taking on Ford’s credibility. That was done, to great effect. There were other factors as well.

  114. Tina says:

    Jesse Waters: “The Kavanaugh confirmation was the first time the Republicans showed up for a gunfight with a gun.”

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    Kavanaugh did a great deal to strike the right tone tonight. It will be forgotten because of the first minutes of Trump’s speech.

  116. Tina says:

    Yeah, Trump,really made a fool of himself, when he state in America, you are innocent until proven and found guilty.

    I do not understand the lengthy ovation and applause.

  117. Tina says:

    And my Bernie for President neighbor still screams that Trump,and Kavanaugh are illegitimates.

  118. mnw says:

    NYT editor Jill Filipovic: “White women need to divorce their Republican husbands.”

    They are coming for our families. If you don’t own a firearm, you aren’t paying attention.

  119. Ron N says:

    124. I guess replace them with all those great guys from antifa or a crazy Dem that will show real power.

  120. Tina says:

    oseph Sheppard
    Betoooooo •Texas OCT 8 Siena College O’Rourke 42% Cruz 55% Cruz+13
    View details ·

    Is this nu? Poor Beta.

  121. JeffP says:

    I thought Trumps apology and comments to Judge K and his family was very well done and personal…talked directly to his daughters telling them their father was a great man…Trump had to address the obvious circus the Dems and media created…what they did was a national disgrace. Trump is owning the Libs.

  122. MichiganGuy says:

    Tina, they just started the poll. 200 Registered Voters.

  123. mnw says:

    JeffP 127

    Me too.

    I also thought Rand Paul’s wife explaining why she now sleeps with a loaded handgun was instructive.

    The Portland, OR police dept has been ordered to stand down & let ANTIFA run traffic control now.

  124. Tina says:

    Thanks, Mg.

    Btw, Alaskan R officials are meeting to see what they can do about Murcommunisti, if anything.

  125. MichiganGuy says:

    Tina, Alaska Republican party leaders plan to consider whether to reprimand U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski for opposing Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

  126. Mr.Vito says:


    IL-14: Hultgren(R)+5
    NY-01: Zeldin (R)+8
    NC-13: Budd(R)+6
    PA-16: Kelly(R)+9

    Still in Field:
    Texas: Cruz+12 (200 responses)
    Tenn: Blackburn+14 (120 responses)
    Nevada: Heller+3 (160 responses)

  127. mnw says:

    Vito 135


    Kav FREAKFEST showing up?

  128. MichiganGuy says:

    Hope Hicks will head to Fox to become its new chief communications officer.

  129. MichiganGuy says:

    #135 the 3 polls still in the field are the 3 nytimes links I just posted.

  130. jason says:

    The Incas are great. A little too close to llamas but that’s their thing, not mine.”


    And thanks.

  131. Tina says:

    I do see Heller pulling this out.

    Trump needs to get out there at some point though.

  132. Mr.Vito says:

    Ha Ha!


    When you can’t find a Nazi to punch, you make a Nazi to punch. @chowwad and I show you how in this new video.

  133. Mr.Vito says:

    After 200 responses, Siena still has Heller+3.

  134. NYCmike says:

    -Reason #1 is so true. Kavanaugh was a bit of a let-down to me, or so I thought. I have enjoyed getting to know that the man is more than I knew.

  135. NYCmike says:

    -Giving me flashbacks to the Rodney King verdict, when the tractor trailer driver got pulled out of his cab and given a beat-down.

    I thought long and hard about what I would ever do in such a situation…….mainly because at that time in NYC, many neighborhoods I went thru were still pretty bad……let’s just say, my foot was NOT going to come off that pedal ON THE RIGHT.

  136. Hugh says:

    Bitter. You are one of my favorite posters. And I thought bk you have an awesome wife. You’re view on trumps comments in this case I disagree with. He’s right and the cnn poll is garbage. You get what you pay for. Most people still believe in the rule of law and frankly Ford is simply not believable another bitter woman who blames others for her problems. Nothing credible about her. I hope pelosi gets her wish. This women is a nutbag.

  137. Hugh says:

    I meant I think you have an awesome wife

  138. Paul says:

    A little about the authoritarian, pro-torture candidate that Jason and SDC were excited about in the previous thread.

  139. Paul says:

    That was the wrong link.
    This was the one I intended to share about Brazil.

  140. GF says:

    I see the trolls are now upset about Brazil since they lost the big SCOTUS fight.

    For the record, Bolsonaro is wasting time and resources torturing the Marxist interlopers in his country; it’s much easier to toss them out of aircraft like Pinochet did.

  141. sandiegocitizen says:

    149 Paul, I live with a Brazilian, and know the country. The leftist articles you provided links to are total bunk. The leftists who ran Brazil ruined it economically. They used the oil/gas revenue as their personal slush fund. There is a reason they went to jail. Now crime is out of control, the murder rate in cities is among the highest in the world. They need a total change.

    Brazil has abundant resources, and has an amazingly resilent and resourceful people. It is being squandered by the leftist idiots. The military ruled the place well, and is needed to bring sanity back. They are already patrolling the streets, and running the local administration in many places. There is a point enough is enough.

  142. sandiegocitizen says:

    Bolsonaro has said some stupid things in the distant past. But the current leftist leaders, including the two past presidents, were deeply corrupt. Unlike Trump, see Bolsonaro more as a symbolic vote. Hopefully he can bring in, or gets his “coup” and competent people are put in charge.

  143. Mr.Vito says:

    “149 Paul, I live with a Brazilian”


  144. Toast says:

    I still haven’t found Heidi.

  145. Toast says:

    I live with an old bag.

  146. DW says:

    IL-14: Hultgren(R)+5
    NY-01: Zeldin (R)+8
    NC-13: Budd(R)+6
    PA-16: Kelly(R)+9”

    Where is the blue-wave?

  147. Wes says:


    Wexton leads Comstock 55-43. That $5 million the NRCC gave Comstock would be quite helpful in other races right now.

    God damn you, Corey Stewart.

  148. Bitterlaw says:

    I am glad that I don’t coach in the HHR Girls High School Rec league. If you win, you don’t shake hands with the other team or say good game. You mock them as evil losers. “Too bad you can’t make foul shots, bitches. Actually, you can’t make any shots. The scoreboard is fake news. We scored more than that.”

  149. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, that 5M was a waste.

    Always thought Dean Heller was going to eke through.

  150. Wes says:

    Janet Jackson and LL Cool J are slated for induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Ay Dios Mio…

    It could be worse, I guess. Bitterlaw could be in charge of induction and put Taylor Swift and Ariana Grande in.

  151. mnw says:

    Joe Donnelly said in last nite’s debate, “My hero in politics is John McCain.”

    What a cheap ho.

  152. Bitterlaw says:

    Too soon, Wes. Keep holding out hope that Megadeath gets in.

  153. Wes says:

    Megadeth would at least fit in, Bitter. That pansy teenybopper stuff you like would not .

  154. DW says:

    Wes, I haven’t heard of most of those musicians. I come from a different world. The musicians I know are Mozart, Beethoven, Bach, Saint-Saens, and Prokofiev.

  155. Redmen4ever says:

    Obviously, if Barbara Comstock doesn’t have an internal that she can release, showing her to be within striking distance, affirming other recent polls and countering this just-released WP poll, it will be difficult for the locals to maintain for this line, and the front will move to the south.

    But, before damning anybody for the mess that the Republican Party of Virginia is in, people should know that the Establishment-Republicans have conducted two purges in the 10th District (one in Loudoun Co. and the other in Frederick Co.) in recent years, thinking what option do Tea Party Republicans have but to vote Republican. Not participating in GOTV and even not voting are options.

    The 10th works when the exburb and rural western part overcomes the suburban and increasingly Democratic eastern part. This means both uniting the party to run-up the Republican vote in the west and appealing to moderate and swing suburban voters to minimize the Democratic advantage in the east. (A similar thing is true statewide.)

    I continue to rate this district Probable Democrat, and closer to Safe Democrat than to Lean Democrat.

  156. Wes says:

    I like them too, DW. Berlioz, Orff, Chopin, Grieg, Mendelssohn, and Verdi in addition to the ones you mentioned are among my favorites.

  157. mnw says:

    RAS Tues.

    51/47 (38/39)

  158. mnw says:

    Van Halen
    The Doors

  159. Wes says:

    The Tea Party got their candidate for VA-Sen, Red. You can’t blame the “Establishment” on that one since Freitas was their pick. Comstock has actually been somewhat to the right of her district but is inoffensive. She is losing for three principal reasons:

    1) Trump is unpopular in the district, even more so than in 2016.

    2) Stewart is going to take it on the chin in the Senate election and deepen the hole Comstock has to dig out of.

    3) VA-10 is trending more Dem by the year.

    I like Comstock. She is one of my favorite members of Congress. In a perfect world she would be a Senator or likely Senator by now. In our reality though, events have conspired to send her into the lobbying industry in January.

  160. Wes says:

    For the record I don’t expect Wexton to annihilate Comstock, but I see no path for Comstock barring a serious unforced error by Wexton a la macaca to do better than a 47-52 loss. Too many factors have moved against Comstock despite her superior campaign skills.

  161. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes keeps ignoring that I said I like music from many eras and genres. Here are the stations programmed into my car radio:

    Hits 1 (current pop/rock)
    Pulse (2000-2018 hits)
    The Highway (country)
    E Street Radio (Springsteen)
    Classic Vinyl – 60s and 70s classic rock

  162. Todd McCain says:

    Nothing hurt us more in the House than the PA Supreme Court redistricting case; we could easily lose 4-5 seats just in PA.

  163. Phil says:

    Obviously we face a very uphill fight to keep the House. Odds are big we lose it. However, we do have a good shot at holding NC 9 & 13. I also think we will keep Tx 23. These would be the types of districts that we need to hang on to in order to stay within striking distance of winning back the House in 2020. If, God forbid, we end up with a Harris type in rhe WH in 2020 – any Democrat will govern far left. It is who they are now – we will need that check. We will need it badly.

  164. Wes says:

    New OH poll:

    Dewine +3

    Brown +16.5

    Trump JA -5

  165. Todd McCain says:

    I think the House is honestly a coin flip; GOP has shorn up many districts that looked like flips.

  166. Todd McCain says:

    So much for Renacci catching up..

  167. BayernFan says:

    So why did Nicki Haley resign?

  168. Todd McCain says:

    Wish Haley had waited until after the election.

  169. Tina says:

    You do not know why?

    She resigned to challenge Trump in 2020.

    I fully support this move.


  170. mnw says:


    Thoughts on debate? Did you watch it so we didn’t have to?

  171. MichiganGuy says:

    Is your opinion of Jim Renacci favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about
    Haven’t heard enough about him

  172. Tina says:

    Haley resigning is not a big deal.

    He should just slot Bolton in there.

    And Bolton would be no worse than Haley, who I highly regard.

  173. Tina says:

    Very strange that he keeps Sessions and Redactstein who have both offered their resignations supposedly at some point,

  174. Phil says:

    I love Haley. If Trump doesn’t run she is our best hot at holding the WH and it isn’t even close.

  175. Tina says:

    The source is axios, who also reported that Redacstein was resigning,

    Needs further verification, could be true but trump speaking shortly,

  176. Tina says:

    Donald J. Trump
    Big announcement with my friend Ambassador Nikki Haley in the Oval Office at 10:30am.
    7:18 AM – 9 Oct 2

  177. Waingro says:

    Depressing to hear about the Haley resignation. Hope it’s not because of something terrible in her personal life.

  178. Messy says:

    107. the Aztec language was never at anytime mysterious. Nahuatl is still spoken, and the Aztec writing system while no longer used, was never lost and needed to be cracked.

    What you are thinking of is Mayan, which was indeed lost after the Spanish destroyed almost all of the books and never bothered to write a grammer for later generations to use. The Spoken Mayan language is still around too, BTW.

  179. MichiganGuy says:

    Nikki Haley will leave at the end of the year.

  180. Wes says:

    “Grammer,” Messy? Really?

  181. Robbie says:

    Let the speculation begin. I don’t for a minute think she’s considering a presidential run, but a year in politics is a lifetime. Who knows what politics looks like next year.

    The Associated Press

    BREAKING: Trump says UN Ambassador Nikki Haley leaving administration `at the end of the year’

  182. mnw says:

    perjuers sarcasticly disintigrate; grammer check needed

  183. Messy says:

    156. Well he was. EVERYONE was racist back then.

    148-9. We’ll see if he’s elected in the second round.

    150. Pinochet held a referendum on whether he should be president for life. His aides, who were sick of him, let it be fairly held, so he lost, and having lost, he left.

  184. MichiganGuy says:

    Nikki Haley says she will campaign for Trump in 2020. She is not running.

  185. Redmen4ever says:

    Corey Stewart won the primary because the establishment ignored the base. If the Republican Party of Virginia weren’t so messed up, Nick Freitas (for whom I voted) would have won the primary. Clearly, Freitas would have been a better candidate, helping downticket candidates and positioning himself for future opportunities.

    Republicans, in competitive districts, need simultaneously to (1) secure the base, (2) appeal to swing and independent voters, and (3) minimize third-party siphoning. There are tensions among these, and not everybody is up to the job. (I could say the same thing about Democrats in competitive districts.) Of course, a booming economy helps. And, getting the country into a quagmire overseas hurts.

    Assuming Wexler wins and we still control the legislature, we’d want to move Wexler’s district inward toward DC, and reallocate the western portion of the district so as to shore up other districts.

    Were Comstock to somehow survive until re-districting, she’d want the district to move away from DC. This means she’d have to get used to dealing with hayseeds and other lesser persons, and not so quick to purge them out of the party.

  186. Diamond Jim says:


  187. Messy says:

    A grammar is a textbook about…wait for it…grammar. It’s used learn foreign languages, and has stuff about alphabets etc.

    Diego de Landa Calderón, O.F.M. was a Spanish bishop of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Yucatán. Historians describe him as a cruel and fanatical priest who led a violent campaign against idolatry. He ordered every single Mayan book destroyed and he wrote down an almost useless “alphabet” I say almost useless because it was used to finally decipher the syllabary centuries later.

  188. Robbie says:

    If I’m Mike Pence, I would be a little worried Trump is going to attempt to fix his problem with women in 2020 by making Nikki Haley his VP.

  189. Redmen4ever says:

    192, 201 – Thanks Messy. I think you’re right. The underlying point is that Aztecs (and the Mayans before them) believed in human sacrifices big time. The numbers inscribed in stone boggle the mind. But the bones that have been unearthed speak loudly.

  190. DW says:

    FL_16 – Public Opinion Strategies

    Shapiro (D) 42%
    Buchanan (R) 52%

    Most have this ranked from Lean R to Likely R

  191. DW says:

    Not sure why the fascination with polling FL_16. In addition to POS, we have had polls from North Fl. U., St. Pete, and PPP-D. All of them say about the same thing.

    Why can’t we get even ONE poll from NV_03 or NV_04, or even VA_05?

  192. DW says:

    Monmouth out with a new poll of NJ_11, and the Republican is trailing 44/48. Roughly the same as their earlier poll.

  193. DW says:

    One of the interesting things during the Kavanaugh hearings and ultimately his confirmation vote, was the certain troll who kept demanding the GOP to ram through Kavanaugh as though this would damage the GOP’s election chances.

    All of the anecdotal feedback I keep reading about shows just the opposite. In fact Breitbart was a lib, but when he say what they did to Clarence Thomas he because a conservative.

    The Kavanaugh hearings likely created a lot more Breitbarts. In fact, the Democrats managed to somehow make Trump look like the grown-up in the room. Hence Trump’s surge in approval numbers.

    Sure the far left radical Socialists who call the Democratic party their home will still stay enthused to vote, but they were anyway.

    The key is the collection of voters in the middle. Libertarians, independents, those who could go either way just watched the incredibly stupid behavior of Democrats in DC and have to be shocked to know that such a lynching could happen to anyone including themselves.

  194. mnw says:

    I believe the Libertarian was on stage with Donnelly & Braun in IN yesterday. That is a concern. So is the Libertarian candidate for MT SEN.

  195. mnw says:

    I am psychic. I can see tomorrow’s headlines today:

    “Haley Resignation Latest Sign of Trump WH Chaos”

  196. BayernFan says:

    UN Ambassador Kanye West

    No I did not watch the IN debate. No one does. I never watch debates. Any debates.

    I have no idea who will win.

  197. BayernFan says:

    I see that old dude in Brazil has a “simple but radical” solution to that country’s violence which is “seducing” voters…..

    “Arm good people”

  198. DW says:

    I do have one prediction for election night coverage.

    Early in the evening it will be apparent that Donnelly is going down but it won’t be called. They cannot call it, because to do so, would be to admit that the GOP should be projected to hold onto the control of the US Senate.

    By not calling it, they can stretch things out and then portray a boost by the OH senate race ‘unexpectedly’ being called immediately for Brown when the polls close at 7:30. They probably will call it for Manchin right away and start talking about a Dem takeover of the senate.

    Then by the 8:00 pm close, they will drag their feet on TN, FL, and MO, and keep pushing the idea that the senate is very much up for grabs.

    If they allow the idea to get out there early on that the GOP is projected to hold the senate, then it will demoralize Dem voters who have yet to go to the polls in CA, thereby harming their chances to flip CA_10, CA_25, CA_39, CA_45, CA_48 and CA_49.

  199. Wes says:

    Former Senator Joe Tydings (D-DE) has passed. RIP.

  200. DW says:

    I also expect an incredible amount of election night social media buzz about voter intimidation and threats of violence. The media will ignore most of this because it will be coming from the left, while at the same time they will go bananas over reports that some voters were wearing ‘I Stand with Kavanaugh’ shirts to the polls.

  201. DW says:

    CNN/SSRS ‘Rescue’ poll of generic ballot:

    Democrat: 54%
    Republican: 41%

    Sorry, but that doesn’t square with the dozens of individual polls of specific races. Thanks for playing.

  202. DW says:

    I mean Siena, not exactly a right-wing pollster says by their polls that house control is a dead-even coin flip.

    If R41 / D54 was true, the GOP would be looking at a 50 seat blowout. But actual polling shows less than half that.

  203. DW says:

    Apparently CNN says the gap among registered voters is D+9 but it is D+13 among likely voters.

  204. janz says:

    #212 DW – interesting perspective on the sequence of calling the race election night. Your prediction seems not only highly plausible but probable.

    Also, I again agree with DW that the adolescent antics of the progressive left Trump looking like one of the few adults around, and with a more presidential demeanor. And, his dignified, gracious press conference with Halley this morning only augmented that impression.

  205. DW says:

    Of course the CNN poll will cause an immediate dip in the GOP’s chances on 538’s formula, and the toupees will rush to move a huge pile of seats in the Dem direction.

  206. gameboy says:

    D+13 LOL If that’s true the Dems will pick up 60+ seats in the house, and obtain a near veto proof majority in the Senate…..what a joke.

  207. DW says:

    and it is not just Siena. I do not recall any congressional election in my memory that has so many polls of individual house races. In fact I can count only on one hand the number of competitive races that lack a single poll.

    Many of the battleground house races have three or four polls plus internal releases.

    Monmouth has been very active, as has been PPP-D, SUSA, along with state firms like St. Petes in FL.

    But CNN says their combined witness is all wrong, and its a 50-60 seat Dem blowout.

  208. lisab says:

    I am psychic. I can see tomorrow’s headlines today:

    “Haley Resignation Latest Sign of Trump WH Chaos”

    i am psychic too … i can see robbie’s post

    “i am not predicting it, but i would not be surprised if haley will run against trump in 2020”

  209. DW says:

    Yep, 538 dropped the percentage of the GOP’s chance to hold on by almost THREE points and the loss of an additional seat solely on the CNN rescue poll. This despite all the actual polling of actual individual seats.

  210. DW says:

    Also in that CNN poll, congressional approve/disapprove was 17/75. Sorry but that poll is junk. Clearly did not capture anything close to what resembles the electorate.

  211. hugh says:

    What the poll lacks is integrity. The pollster wants to please its client. Its that simple, just follow the money.

  212. mnw says:

    Meghan McCain says Trump should’ve pulled K’s nomination “the minute the accusation was made.”

  213. NYCmike says:

    On the radio this morning, the host (Mark Simone? or Chris something?) read an article which stated that “Nikki Haley has accepted the position as Ambassador to the United Nations. She has alluded to the fact that it will be a 2 year appointment.”

    I am trying to find that article to verify what was read on air.

  214. NYCmike says:

    “Meghan McCain says Trump should’ve pulled K’s nomination “the minute the accusation was made.””

    -She is her father’s daughter.

  215. CG says:

    228. Link?

    All I can see is that she said she would have put up Amy Coney Barrett. Others here were saying the same thing.

    I have very little doubt that John McCain would have continued to support Brett Kavanuagh.

  216. NYCmike says:


    -Ask #226

  217. NYCmike says:

    “I have very little doubt that” that Hillary will beat Trump.

  218. NYCmike says:

    You don’t doubt yourself much……..

  219. CG says:

    #226 sounds like fake news.

  220. Mr.Vito says:

    She said it on the view.

  221. CG says:

    All I can see from what she apparently said on the View today comes from Breitbart, which is not exactly an objective source, and nowhere in her quote is Trump mentioned.

    She said *she* would have put up Amy Coney Barrett at that time. Apparently, that is who she wanted, which is the same thing a lot of people here wanted, with the impression that she was more conservative than a “Bush Swamp Creature” like Kavanaugh. She was expressing her preference for Barrett, which is somewhat pointless for her of course, and did not claim that Trump should have withdrawn Kavanaugh.

    And whatever she thinks has nothing to do with what John McCain would have thought on the matter if he was alive and healthy. He praised the Kavanaugh nomination when it was made and expressed his support.

  222. Mr.Vito says:

    “The optics are important. I agree that the ceremony aspect I would have pulled immediately. I actually — had I been emotionally capable of being on the show at the time this happened the second Kavanaugh had that accusation I would have pulled him and put up Amy Coney Barrett. I didn’t understand why we let the circus continue. But believe whatever polls we want, but it has galvanized a lot of people. I do think for conservative women we are being asked questions that are very hard to answer in a lot of different ways, but I would have left out — I agree that optically it was tone-deaf.”

  223. CG says:

    Apparently, she criticized Trump for his remarks yesterday, in the same vein that Bitterlaw did.

  224. Mr.Vito says:

    mnw was wrong… it was the “second” the accusation was made, not the “minute”

  225. CG says:

    She did not say Trump should have pulled the nomination over the accusation. She said she would have put up Amy Coney Barrett instead. (The left wouldn’t have like that obviously.)

    If Breitbart is the only source for this, it is suspect.

  226. Mr.Vito says:

    “If Breitbart is the only source for this, it is suspect.”

    The video is the source for it… quoted above.

  227. CG says:

    I did not see “The View” today. Perhaps others did and can report first hand.

    Apparently, she spoke at length on Kavanuagh and if she said she believed he was guilty or was generally opposed to him being on the Court, there would be plenty of stories on that now.

  228. Phil says:

    Any Republican who stays home and does not vote in November should be forced to watch The View in a continuous loop as punishment.

  229. Mr.Vito says:

    “I did not see “The View” today. Perhaps others did and can report first hand.”

    I just watched the clip.

  230. CG says:

    I am not able to “watch clips” where I am at the moment, but I would assume it was a small clip of a larger conversation in which she did say she believed that Kavanaugh was guilty of assault or was a bad person or should have been rejected by the Senate.

    She said she preferred Amy Coney Barret, perhaps the same kind of knee jerk reaction that people here were having (“put up Barrett instead, don’t even hold a hearing….”)

    In July, she said on the show, she liked the Kavanaugh selection but was surprised Trump would pick someone so associated with the Bushes.

  231. CG says:

    *did NOT say

  232. Mr.Vito says:

    What mnw said was true.

    You said it seemed fake and wanted proof.

    I gave you the proof it was said.

  233. CG says:

    I can’t verify the proof at the moment. I will assume she is quoted accurately, but that a significant portion of her quote is not included, which changes what she was saying.

    Nowhere in this quote, did she say that Trump should have pulled the nomination however.

  234. Mr.Vito says:


  235. NYCmike says:

    “CG” has elevated McCain to JEB!2016 status:

    MUST DEFEND AT ALL COSTS, even when video, audio, and transcript evidence says otherwise.

  236. CG says:

    Why are you making attributions to John McCain from beyond the grave?

    When Kavanuagh was nominated July, Senator McCain could not have been more effusive.

    I am sure Meghan McCain will say a lot of things on “The View” that I will disagree with. Her opinion on these sort of matters is not exactly relevant. She is not her father nor a Senator. She is an openly Pro-Life conservative however and expressed her preference for Barrett. So what?

    I am theorizing that if Meghan McCain said today on the View that Senators should have voted down Kavanuagh, or that she had reached the conclusion he was guilty of assaulting Ford, it would have gotten coverage on CNN, ABC, NBC, etc, and that does not seem to be the case.

  237. CG says:

    The Meghan McCain “things said today on the View” news seems to be relegated to her denying having a drinking problem, and her volunteering to run a Presidential campaign for Nikki Haley.

  238. NYCmike says:

    I am speculating that Republican politicians like McCain, Romney, and Bush would have faltered in the face of those accusations. It is based on previous actions they have taken when faced with unrelenting, bad media coverage.

    Am I correct in saying it? I will never know, since none of the three will have to face such a situation ever again in their lives.

  239. NYCmike says:

    Why are your panties in such a wad over this?

  240. CG says:

    Considering the fact that George W. Bush was literally working behind the scenes to shore up Senate votes for Kavanaugh and that Senate candidate Mitt Romney continued to support the Kavanaugh nomination, your speculation is very odd.

  241. CG says:

    I am risking punishment by watching a 4 minute clip from the View today and the panelist who is the daughter of the U.S. Ambassador to Russia under Trump, had more to say about it than Meghan McCain did.

  242. CG says:

    Yes, NYC, that President George W. Bush sure gave up and withdrew from the mission in Iraq when “faced with unrelenting, bad media coverage.”

    That Dubya was never accused of being stubborn!

  243. Todd McCain says:

    That DEM primary for 2020 is going to be a dumpster fire.

  244. CG says:

    And I am sure you are old enough to remember when George H.W. Bush told Clarence Thomas he had to go when Anita Hill made her allegations. Caved of course.

    Gee, whatever happened to that Clarence Thomas…?

  245. DW says:

    New HPU Survey has GOP +2 on NC Generic Ballot.

  246. dblaikie says:

    I predicted about 4 days ago to look for rescue polls. They should be ignored. Don’t give them credibility.

  247. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    252. Romney placed a letter from Lindsey Graham supporting Kavanaugh on his website, and kept to up throughout the nomination battle. He fully supported Kavanaugh’s appointment.

    Romney and George W. Bush are doing a campaign event for Martha McSally.

  248. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    257. “That DEM primary for 2020 is going to be a dumpster fire.”

    Agree. They will rapidly show that they are too crazy to govern.

  249. DW says:

    KY_06 – Public Opinion Strategies

    McGrath (D) 46%
    Barr (R) 48%

  250. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Looks like Hillary is aiming to run again in 2020. Will this excite the Democrats or the Republicans more?

    “You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for,” Hillary Clinton tells CNN’s

    Bill and Hillary Clinton are going on tour. The Clintons announce they will headline a series of live events together — billed “An Evening with The Clintons” — across the country in the final weeks of 2018 and into 2019. (link:

  251. DW says:

    Hillary might run, but no way she would get the nomination unless its some sort of 2008 McCain situation where all the others canceled each other out and she was the last one standing.

  252. dblaikie says:

    I don’t trust polls so I don’t trust this one. But if, I say if, it is true it will stun the political hacks of both parties. According to this tracking poll Gavin Newsome is only 5 points ahead in California! Don’t believe me? Here is the link:

  253. Mr.Vito says:

    The three NYT Senate polls have resumed.

  254. Cash Cow TM says:

    If a former NFL quarterback died….

    Do we say “HE PASSED’ ?

  255. Mr.Vito says:

    Two yards under.

  256. Mr.Vito says:

    Sacked inside the box.

  257. Mr.Vito says:

    Intentional Grounding

  258. CG says:

    Intentional Grounding

  259. CG says:

    Oh great..

  260. Mr.Vito says:

    play clock expired

  261. CG says:

    Hopefully, Khalil Mack will be merciful.

  262. Todd McCain says:


    Heller 46
    Rosen 44

    Dean Heller!!!!!!!!

  263. DW says:

    with 212 responses in the Siena poll, Heller still up by 3.

  264. DW says:

    One more word on the generic ballot poll for house races. The reason this poll is done, in theory, is because it was always considered impossible to poll every single competitive US House race.

    However, this year only NV_03 and VA_05 stand out as seats remotely in play that have 0 known polls.

    So really the generic ballot only matters as it relates to comparisons to prior elections. But even so, this is probably a bad year for comparisons given how jazzed Dems might be to vote in deep blue areas like Massachusetts, NY City, Chicago, LA, etc. All the responses from these urban cesspools do nothing to help the measurement of a generic ballot poll as the seats in these given cesspools will go 95/5 for the Democrat anyway.

    More valuable would be a generic ballot of only contested races, but even better than that is what we actually have–polling of each individual race. And when we look at that, house control is currently a coin flip that could go either way.

  265. Wes says:

    One caveat on the NV poll is that undecideds Lean Dem. Still, Heller is in decent shape with that poll.

  266. DW says:

    Wes, if Heller survives, and McSally holds the seat in AZ, then we are looking the following in the most likely order of flipping:


    Then much further down and highly unlikely would be:

    MN (the franken seat)

    Agree on the order?

  267. CG says:

    You’d have a better chance at Michigan and New Mexico than Virginia, and those aren’t happening either.

  268. Wes says:

    I agree with Corey NM and MI would be better pickup chances than VA, DW. Gardner is easily the worst candidate for Senate from either party this cycle.

  269. Wes says:

    Err, Stewart, not Gardner.

  270. CG says:

    Too many Coreys/Corys

  271. EML says:

    Yeah, the NYT live polls for TX and TN are churning again. Blackburn up to +15 and Cruz down to +8.

  272. DW says:

    NM is hard to rank given the Libertarian, and MI looks like a disaster for the GOP in the senate race, so its hard to rank, but yeah, I can see the Republican doing better there than in VA, but I could see it going the other way too.

  273. Wes says:

    I think James will lose by 20, and Stewart will lose by 25-30.

  274. janz says:

    I was championing for James earlier. However, his numbers are remaining unyieldingly stagnant. So, I guess you were right in your earlier analysis, Wes.

  275. Wes says:

    Of course Heller does live in Carson City, right next door to Washoe County, so if he’s up as big there in reality as in the poll, it could be the favorite son effect.

  276. Wes says:

    In a Hillary midterm, Janz, James might have a chance. Despite its narrow vote for Trump in 2016 though, it is still fundamentally a Dem state. That’s reflected in the reaming all statewide Republicans are taking in current polling. By winning, Trump moved both MI and VA out of any possible realm of a GOP surge—at least for this cycle.

  277. Mr.Vito says:

    About 2/3 of today’s 50 votes must have come in for Beto to close it to Cruz+6 right before they got to 250 (which is when they say to begin taking the poll seriously)

  278. Wes says:

    If James had the Tim Scott profile of seasoning by running in a few races before trying for Senate, I think he’d be running a better campaign and making it closer. I still don’t think he would win even with that so long as Trump is President.

  279. janz says:

    #266. Newsom & Cox finally had a 1 hour debate @ 10 am yesterday, on a radio station coming out of San Francisco. IOW, it was a token debate for Newsom to escape the idea that he didn’t want to debate Cox, and simply glide thru to victory on his looks, Dem/Hollywood contacts and of course lots of money. Cox doesn’t have a chance, but he keeps grinding along anyway.

    Those polls you posted, while looking encouraging, conflict with others done showing a double digit lead for Newsom.

  280. Wes says:

    This will do exactly nothing to cause Warren to lose but may hurt her in a putative presidential run in 2020:

  281. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    268. If a former NFL quarterback died….
    Do we say “HE PASSED’ ?

    Refer to it as a permanent tackle.

  282. janz says:

    The blue wave commentary, along with polls that seem to erratically slide around, has the upcoming midterms baffling to me. I basically seem to go up and down in my optimism, mirroring these day to day numbers.

  283. BayernFan says:

    Kinda like 2016, eh? The Dems will turn out again. Will the GOP turn out more like they did to everyone’s surprise in 2016? What do PDT’s rallies tell us if anything? Under the media’s radar again?

  284. JulStol says:


  285. JulStol says:

    CCC (“you can get it for a penny…” Walt knows what I’m talking about.)

  286. Wes says:

    Rallies are a mixed bag, Bay. They can be a sign of unreported enthusiasm. They can also be just a sign enthusiastic supporters of a given pol want to see him/her.

    Obama has large rallies throughout his presidency. Their effect on either of his midterms was undetectable. Trump had large rallies in 2016. They were a sign of his eventual victory.

    I would rather have large rallies than not, at least from a PR perspective, but the underlying fundamentals of a race will usually tell us far more than any campaign rally.

  287. Cash Cow TM says:

    If a former NFL running back died and his earthly playclock has run out, we don’t say he PASSED…

    But we could say:

    “he hit the hole one last time.”

    6 foot deep hole?

  288. EML says:

    NYT TN poll hits the halfway mark
    Blackburn 55%
    Bredesen 40%

  289. hugh says:

    TN and TX were always a pipe dream as is MO being retained by McCaskill.

  290. NYCmike says:

    Blackburn and Cruz are quality candidates. They don’t get cocky. They get out and campaign hard, stay in touch with their constituents, and stay faithful to their belief system.

  291. lisab says:

    If a former NFL quarterback died….

    Do we say “HE PASSED’ ?

    not if it was jay cutler

  292. lisab says:

    Kavanaugh begins first day on Supreme Court, throws ice at Kagan, orders 3 kegs for after party.

  293. Wes says:

    Mikey clearly has no clue who Ted Cruz is.

    Mikey, if that were true about Cruz, he wouldn’t have struggled against Beto for much of the campaign.

  294. Phil says:

    Ted Cruz is not Beto. That’s all I need to know.

  295. lisab says:

    colorado, nevada, pennsylvania and new hampshire are now buying more pro than anti-trump books

    opposite to before 2016


  296. Wes says:

    No argument here, Phil. I was just pointing out Cruz is a grating, smug pol whose egocentric showboating puts him in a worse electoral position than should really be the case.

  297. Phil says:

    Can’t say you are wrong on that point, Wes.

  298. EML says:

    NYT NV poll just passes the 250 response mark
    Heller 47%
    Rosen 46%
    Undecided 7%

    Undecideds lean Republican

  299. VictrC says:


    Yes, I believe another statewide politician would probably be doing better than Ted right now, but still, I can’t see a world where he loses this race. Just think it will be closer than it should.

    Right call on Cruz. He is not the best retail politician, though Im struggling to find the allure to Robert Francis…”Mr. Identity Politics Beto” I don’t think he’s a great public speaker, his message would be to the left in most states except NY and CA, and he looks like a weasel. I don’t find the allure. I honestly think the new transplants, escaping the suffocating government in CA are the ones touting him so much.

    Phil, what’s your take.

    It is very encouraging seeing so many more Cruz signs, even in SA and of all places, Austin.

  300. VictrC says:

    BTW NY Times just put a banner across the Heller race saying that this race was heavily weighted (whatever they mean by their estimation…who are they weighting them towards) so that the results are not reliable.

    Could it be because Heller is leading and they don’t want to show him leading because that messes with their narrative.

  301. jason says:

    Kavanaugh begins first day on Supreme Court, throws ice at Kagan, ….”

    Zzzzz….. Kagan said Thomas, Roberts and Scalia were in the room.

    Thomas and Roberts deny it.

  302. DW says:

    Siena has done that right along with these polls. They kept putting up the warning on NC_09, until they finally gave up and just let it show what it was showing.

  303. VictrC says:

    …and Ginsburg was supposed to be there, but said “Kava..whoooo” I don’t recall ever meeting him”

  304. jason says:

    No argument here, Phil. I was just pointing out Cruz is a grating, smug pol whose egocentric showboating puts him in a worse electoral position than should really be the case.”


  305. Wes says:

    I never said Cruz would lose, Vic. I just said his personality is making the race closer than it realistically should be.

  306. EML says:

    316 – NYT poll in NV is not reaching enough young and nonwhite voters (ie unreliable Democrats), so they’ve had to weight their poll. This looks like it is costing Heller 10 points based on the responses they have gitten so far.

  307. Wes says:

    As I said Sunday if I lived in TX I’d vote for Cruz. After that I’d tape a picture of him to a punching bag and take up boxing.

  308. VictrC says:


    Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply you said he would lose, not what I meant.

    I actually agree with you 100%. Your sentiment is what most Texans feel. It’s so very odd. I don’t think Robert Francis is any better a politician than the disgusting Wendy Davis.

  309. VictrC says:

    BTW does anyone think that Blackburn is up by 16% in TN?

    All other polls had her close or trailing.

    LOL I wonder if our good friend Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Bredesen is having a negative effect….just kidding

  310. DW says:

    With no new votes that came in NYTimes/Siena just flipped the numbers from Heller 47 / Rosen 46 to Rosen 47 / Heller 46.

  311. jason says:

    “Blackburn and Cruz are quality candidates.”

    Hmmmm….they are having some trouble pulling away in red states. Blackburn is an “ok” candidate.

    Cruz is not a quality candidate IMO. Nobody likes him, so it’s hard to be a “quality” candidate when you have a personality that rubs most people the wrong way.

    He is a smart guy, I give him that. Too bad he doesn’t use his brains to the benefit of the country instead of grandstanding to the benefit of Ted Cruz.

  312. lisab says:

    4 Sisters Killed in New York Limo Crash That Left 20 Dead

  313. hugh says:

    I believe it. The national polls are not to be relied on. Call my skeptical, but i see us winning most of these senate races in red states.

  314. DW says:

    and now Heller down two 45/47

    Obvious they are tweaking their sample

  315. jason says:

    I think Blackburn wins 54-46 because Bredesen is pretending to be a moderate. Cruz 53-47, not very good for TX against a guy who is not even pretending to be a moderate.

  316. Phil says:

    I see a Cruz ceiling by 8 and his very bottom at 4. Call it something on election night 51-45 since this is a Democratic year. The best Obama could do in either 08 or 12 was 44%. Even against Trump Hillary only got to 43. The cities just get a Democrat to that 43 or 44 mark. I’ll be generous since this is a Democratic year and get Beto to 45.

  317. jason says:

    That crash is weird. The limo did not look crushed…. I guess everyone died because nobody wears seat belts in a limo except maybe the driver.

  318. Cash Cow TM says:

    “lisab says:
    October 9, 2018 at 7:47 pm
    Kavanaugh begins first day on Supreme Court, throws ice at Kagan, orders 3 kegs for after party.”

    Now that right there is funny…I don’t care who you are.
    Milk shot out of Cash Cow’s….well, you know…

  319. mnw says:

    Wes 325

    IN SEN:

    Your lips to God’s ear. That would be significant, indeed– if confirmed.

    The Wise Men are mocking the “Kavanaugh [GOP] bump.

  320. Mr.Vito says:

    Just an observation…

    WAPO ran with the Blasey Ford story on September 16. After a week, the hearing had been scheduled, and sides were coalescing.

    On September 23, the Ramirez story broke, and Avenatti entered the fray.

    So… looking at the Siena polls.

    Before September 23, only 10 of 25 polls were within 3 or better for the GOP compared to Cook PVI for the district.

    After September 23, 12 of 15 polls were within this range.

    So, perhaps a shift…

  321. Mr.Vito says:

    In case you dont know what I mean by that, if the Cook Partisan Voter Index was even, then a poll where the republican is down three points or better would be in the range. (In other words, it is lining up with the known PVI)

  322. DW says:

    Two or three Heller votes show up, and the needle doesn’t move. One Rosen vote pops up and it jumps from 46/45 to 47/45.

    So they have some major adjusting they are doing.

  323. lisab says:

    The Elk House (Älgens Hus) farm in Bjurholm, Sweden, run by Christer and Ulla Johansson is believed to be the world’s only producer of moose cheese. It has three milk-producing moose, whose milk yields roughly 300 kilograms of cheese per year; the cheese sells for about US$1,000 per kilogram.[6] A disturbed moose cow’s milk dries up, so it can take up to 2 hours of milking in silence to get the full 2 litre yield