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Hogan Leads By 20% in MD, Heller Up By 2% in NV

The Republican Governor of Maryland, Larry Hogan, continues to hold a huge lead in the state of Maryland according to a new poll from the Washington Post and the University of Maryland.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (WaPo/UMD)
Larry Hogan (R-inc) 58%
Ben Jealous (D) 38%

This poll was done October 4-7 among likely voters. We are supposed to get another poll tomorrow morning for this race from Gonzales Research for this race as well. Meanwhile in Nevada, NBC News and Marist College have Republican Dean Heller ahead by 2% in his bid for re-election.

US SENATE – NEVADA (NBC/Marist)
Dean Heller (R-inc) 46%
Jacky Rosen (D) 44%

This poll was done September 30-October 3 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 8:45 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (95)

95 Responses to “Hogan Leads By 20% in MD, Heller Up By 2% in NV”

  1. sandiegocitizen says:

    1st

  2. NYCmike says:

    Segundo!

  3. NYCmike says:

    “Mikey, if that were true about Cruz, he wouldn’t have struggled against Beto for much of the campaign.”

    -Just to clarify, if Cruz wins by 10, will that be considered “struggling”?

    He is not the most likable guy, nobody said otherwise. But he is principled, he is a hard worker, and stays in touch with his constituents. You claim he is struggling. He is out there campaigning just like always. Never takes his position for granted, doesn’t feel as if he is entitled to it.

  4. Mr.Vito says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 9, 2018 at 8:58 pm

    Just an observation…

    WAPO ran with the Blasey Ford story on September 16. After a week, the hearing had been scheduled, and sides were coalescing.

    On September 23, the Ramirez story broke, and Avenatti entered the fray.

    So… looking at the Siena polls.

    Before September 23, only 10 of 25 polls were within 3 or better for the GOP compared to Cook PVI for the district.

    After September 23, 12 of 15 polls were within this range.

    So, perhaps a shift…

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 9, 2018 at 9:02 pm

    In case you dont know what I mean by that, if the Cook Partisan Voter Index was even, then a poll where the republican is down three points or better would be in the range. (In other words, it is lining up with the known PVI)

  5. DW says:

    FL_09 – SUSA

    Soto (D) 48%
    Liebnitzky (R) 40%

    This one is ranked Safe D across the board.

  6. DW says:

    if a GOP held seat previously considered safe had a poll come out just +8, they would all move it to Lean R or even tossup.

  7. Mr.Vito says:

    Example:

    The PVI for FL-09 is D+5,

    so the republican is within 3 points or better.

  8. lisab says:

    The Elk House (Älgens Hus) farm in Bjurholm, Sweden, run by Christer and Ulla Johansson is believed to be the world’s only producer of moose cheese. It has three milk-producing moose, whose milk yields roughly 300 kilograms of cheese per year; the cheese sells for about US$1,000 per kilogram.[6] A disturbed moose cow’s milk dries up, so it can take up to 2 hours of milking in silence to get the full 2 litre yield

  9. Mr.Vito says:

    Exploring this further, the median difference between the poll results and PVI is now R(-1).

    Before September 23…. it was R(-7).

  10. mnw says:

    Council Bluffs, bitchez.

    Lock her up! Lock her up!

  11. mnw says:

    Well… he seemed a little .. tired 2nite in IA., imo Who can blame him?

  12. Tina says:

    Lock Frankenstein up.

  13. Mr.Vito says:

    Round 2 was pretty horrific for Bredesen, as he’s now down by 18 in the Siena poll.

  14. Tina says:

    Mnw, tried listening to the rally on a fox business feed. It seemed that the crowd was so loud that It was difficult for me to hear.

    I will try another feed later.

  15. Mr.Vito says:

    Texas poll has reached 500 people. Cruz up 8 at that point.

  16. Phil says:

    ……..but, but, but Bredesen is a reasonable moderate who is going to buck Schumer. He told us that himself….and he would have been for Kavanaugh. LOL. Voters of Tennessee aren’t buying his crap.

    Seriously, it just shines a light on just how stupid the voters in WV are – voting for that fake, Manchin election after election. Seriously, is there a more gullable electorate anywhere on the planet?

  17. Phil says:

    …..and that’s about how you can expect Texas to turn out, Vito.

  18. Hugh says:

    Cruz embodies what I really dislike. He thought if he went hard right and appealed to the religious right he could win the nomination but the religious right chose trump. I know a former law partner and friend of Cruz. He was shocked by how he behaved. My own view is Cruz has realized he is never going to be president and he has improved dramatically. Solid republican who will stop his ridiculous antics. However this is closer than it it should have been because he chose himself over party.

  19. Hugh says:

    So I’m curious who besides me think Ford was not credible and is a nut job. Apparently the good doctor could hardly keep any facts straight and other than the abused hubby had no family support and almost no classmate support.

  20. Mr.Vito says:

    After Round 2, Cruz is up 9 and outside the margin of error.

  21. MichiganGuy says:

    Was it the money? Nikki Haley ‘up to $1M in debt’ as she resigns as UN ambassador.
    .
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nikki-haley-resigning-as-un-ambassador-with-up-to-1m-in-debt

  22. VictrC says:

    LOL, I was stuck in the other thread, and was going to post something because it looked so lonely with no posts…then I figured I better check on a new post and…Voila.

    Hugh, I agree with you on Ted Cruz. He’s good for Texas, hes a hard worker and I think the vote total will come around to have him win by between 9-12 points. People are also seeing the real Robert Francis for what he is… a California type Liberal who ran away from a DUI.

    Oddly Cruz has refused to do the town hall on CNN next week, which leaves Robert Francis on for an hour. Now, its CNN, so a good, God fearing Texan would never watch CNN, and those are Cruz voters, but still… wonder why he won’t do it.

  23. Wes says:

    Mikey, were you paying attention for the months when Cruz was barely leading Beto? That should never have been the case.

    It was the case though because Cruz was more worried about Ted Cruz than about Texas. He only recently started to pull away—and it’s not because of his mediocre campaign skills. It’s because ALL Republicans running in competitive races for Senate have been buoyed since the Dems tried to destroy Kavanaugh. Despite his state’s GOP lean, Cruz was struggling against an unrepentant leftist who tried to run from a car crash he caused while driving drunk.

    That’s not the sign of a good candidate. Face it. Cruz put himself into a bad position, and Kavanaugh righted his ship for him.

    He’s not some kind of great constituent servant or campaign er. He’s the Texas version of Sheldon Whitehouse—an unlikable, unpopular jerk whose state’s partisan lean will save him on Election Day.

  24. marc says:

    I always said Indiana is a late breaking state for us.

    IN-SEN: FWIW, Jonathan Swan of Axios says internals have moved in Braun’s direction.

  25. Wes says:

    It’s Texas. Cruz should have been up consistently by double digits against O’Rourke. That that didn’t happen till recently should say all that needs to be said about Cruz.

  26. marc says:

    Anyone have any thoughts on the clearly narrative setting CNN poll that was out today? You can tell it was an narrative poll when NBC is quote it more then it’s own poll they have out today showing the GOP ahead in Nevada.

  27. NYCmike says:

    Wes, whatever.

    He will win by 10 or more, going away.

    Polls in June don’t matter…..in fact, it may help Republicans in that silly Democrats send so much $$$ to Beto and other losers.

  28. Wes says:

    He’ll win by 10 when he won by 12 as a non-incumbent against a better candidate than O’Rourke. That’s a really ringing endorsement of the man, Mikey.

    How much money did the Republicans have to pour into Texas to shore up Cruz against O’Rourke they could have spent on other races?

    You’re about as stupid as Messy honestly.

  29. Wes says:

    Hey, this guy who ran for an open seat last time and got 55% of the vote against a decent Dem candidate is going to barely make it out of single digits against a West Coast liberal with a prominent DUI—in Texas!

    He’s awesome!

    Goddamn, you are stupid.

  30. Wes says:

    Ed Wood was clearly thinking about you, Mikey, when scripting this scene:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qro7oBzUBos

  31. Phil says:

    22

    Wonder why Cruz won’t do a CNN town hall?

    Did you happen to watch the CNN Florida town hall about guns on CNN?

    That’s why.

  32. VictrC says:

    Phil

    Totally makes sense. As you know, no one here who is going to vote R watch CNN. LOL

  33. Hugh says:

    Donnelly is a lightweight. I lived 11 years in south bend plus another four at ND. He’s toast.

  34. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    19. “So I’m curious who besides me think Ford was not credible and is a nut job. Apparently the good doctor could hardly keep any facts straight and other than the abused hubby had no family support and almost no classmate support.”

    I did not find her testimony credible, for the reasons stated by Victor Davis Hanson”:

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/brett-kavanaugh-christine-blasey-ford-testimony/

  35. Cash Cow TM says:

    “The Elk House (Älgens Hus) farm in Bjurholm, Sweden, run by Christer and Ulla Johansson is believed to be the world’s only producer of moose cheese…”
    ###########################
    But who cut the cheese?

    HA HA HA!

  36. Cash Cow TM says:

    BREAKING

    Walt came in first at bridge today!
    Highest score!

  37. Mr.Vito says:

    After Round 2, Heller is +1 in the Siena poll.

  38. GF says:

    FWIW, McSally +6. Can’t comment on the quality of the pollster.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1049888061017022464

  39. Mr.Vito says:

    What on earth??

    Tester shoots farm animals?

    ………………

    Chris Meagher
    ? @chrismeagher

    Chris Meagher Retweeted Matt Rosendale

    While you were busy making your millions developing Maryland farmland, @jontester was making a living shooting hundreds of cows and hogs. So I think Montanans know who gets guns. #mtpol #mtsen

    Chris Meagher added,

    Matt Rosendale
    Verified account @MattForMontana
    US Senate candidate, MT
    BREAKING: @JonTester’s NRA rating downgraded to a “D” after voting AGAINST Kavanaugh. With that kind of record it’s beyond clear that you can’t trust Tester to protect our #2A Rights! https://www.nraila.org/articles/20181009/nra-downgrades-sen-testers-rating-to-a-d … #MAGA #MontanaFirst #AmericaFirst #DefeatTester #mtsen #mtpol

  40. Mr.Vito says:

    NRA responded with this… ha ha!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpHUO8YWsAA8ZaG.jpg

  41. Bitterlaw says:

    I found Dr. Ford credible to the point Ctenophora that I believe at some point she was assaulted. I did not find her credible when she said it was Kavanaugh.

    I switch between Fox, MSNBC and CNN for big stories coverage. I like to hear what the libs are saying – especially when they are fuming mad over something like Kavanaugh’s confirmation. MSNBC has the best map analyst on Election nights. CNN jams more analysts on screen than any other network. I counted 9 on set when Kavanaugh was confirmed.

  42. Bitterlaw says:

    Extent became Ctenophora? Autocorrect sucks.

  43. sandiegocitizen says:

    42. Sorry Bitter. But when a boat develops a leak in its bow, the whole boat sinks. Same with Dr. Ford, when she incorrectly stated who her attacker was, and her witnesses did not substantiate her claims. I cannot accept any part of her testimony as credible.

  44. MichiganGuy says:

    Maryland – Governor
    .
    Hogan 53.6 %
    Jealous 35.7 %
    .
    Gonzales Research Poll
    https://cdn.s3-media.wbal.com/Media/2018/10/09/8055e9a7-2458-4144-9faf-9ea82ae897be/original.pdf
    ——————————————————————————————————————
    Dave will be so happy I predict a new thread.

  45. Bitterlaw says:

    A new thread? The Wizard is mysterious. Nobody can predict his actions.

  46. Wes says:

    Good news out of AZ:

    https://www.abc15.com/news/state/poll-martha-mcsally-gaining-in-senate-race-against-kyrsten-sinema

    McSally 47; Sinema 41.

    It appears McSally is consolidating the base.

  47. MichiganGuy says:

    Wes, I wouldn’t put to much stock in that pollster.

  48. EML says:

    Including this new poll and dropping the Emerson RV poll from 3 weeks ago puts AZ at Sinema +1 on RCP.

  49. Messy says:

    Good news from Britain we can all get behind:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45789759

    oh yeah, FIFTY!!!

  50. Todd McCain says:

    4 senate seat pick up would be HUGE.

  51. DW says:

    If you read the details on the Siena poll of NV Senate, you will see that without weighting for party registration Heller is up 6. And the poll was trying to reach 51% women and 49% men, but instead reached 56% women and 44% men.

  52. MichiganGuy says:

    DW, that poll only has white people responding it needs weighting adjustment.LOL

  53. Todd McCain says:

    MO, IN, ND, TN, TX, NV and AZ all trending our way.

    Can we beat Tester?

  54. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Does anyone want to guess how many House seats are moved toward the Democrats this week by the Three Toupees?
    All three are sociopathic about doing this!

  55. Todd McCain says:

    Also, if Scott and FEMA do a great job on Hurricane Michael, he likely has that one in the bag.

  56. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Heidi Heitkamp(D-ND) is truly a moron and I look forward to returning the favor by watching her concession speech with the volume on mute!

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/heidi-heitkamp-opposed-brett-kavanaugh-due-to-his-body-language-at-hearing/

  57. Phil says:

    LOL. That’s a good one, Sheeple.

    Yeah, I look forward to Heidi’s body language as she concedes on election night…..about thirty minutes after the polls close.

  58. bob says:

    From Rasmussen today on Generic Congressional Ballot:

    GOP: 45%

    Dems: 45%

    Other: 3%

    Undecid:8%

  59. Phil says:

    You know, I was just looking at 538 and I can’t figure Silver out. His projections have Heidi just three down. He has Donnelly cruising by 5 or 6. Tester he projects winning comfortably by 6. Sky Queen winning by two. McSally losing by 3, Scott losing by a couple………aren’t these the Absolute rosiest scenarios possible for Democrats?

    He does have Marsha finally stretching out Tennessee by 6 and Cruz by 4 but I think that’s being Democratic generous.

  60. DW says:

    bob, not sure if you are new here, but that sort of poll should only be posted with a BOOM!!

  61. DW says:

    So if Rasmussen is tied and CNN is D+13, which one is closer to the actual results we see from actual polling of individual house seats?

  62. mnw says:

    AZ SEN

    I suppose this was already posted? Lead story at FOX.

    Sinema hosted 2 events in 2003 with Lynn Stewart, the atty for the Blind Sheik. Sinema described the atty as “an innocent victim of the Patriot Act.” The atty was subsequently sentenced to 10 years for aiding terrorism.

    If this stuff about Sinema’s radicalism was going to hurt her, seems like it already would have.

    I note the new polls. I find Sinema to be appalling– kind of a desert rat version of Bill Ayers.

  63. Todd McCain says:

    Where we are going to take it on the chin this cycle is the GOV races.

  64. mnw says:

    Pundits like the WaPo’s Dave Weigel have taken to referring to the GOP’s Freakfest bump as “the Kavanaugh bump,” with scare quotes, see?

    Maybe time to remove the scare quotes pretty soon?

  65. DW says:

    Great call by the first base ump on the final out of the Yankees season–one of those almost impossible to call plays and yet the replay confirmed the guy was out by a whisker.

  66. Todd McCain says:

    UVA:

    Hawley 45
    Claire 44

  67. Todd McCain says:

    Morning Consult:

    DEMS 48
    GOP 38

  68. Phil says:

    Sorry, I’m just not buying Democrats up double digits. I do see them running up the score in blue districts. So what.

  69. Todd McCain says:

    I think Trump should cancel his MAGA rally tonight in PA. We don’t need a news cycle of Trump campaigning during the Hurricane.

  70. mnw says:

    49/49 today (Wed.)

  71. dblaikie says:

    I don’t trust any polls. So you have to look to who is behind them. Rasmussen is independent. However you know who funds the CNN poll and Politco funds the Morning Consult Poll. In addition, MC is a online poll (risky at best). Also we have seen dramatic movement in the Senate Polls towards the GOP. Taken together — oh well — you decide.

    And of course how can anyone dismiss the possibility that the GOP hating press is desperate for a story that shows no Kavanaugh bump and pump that stuff out through their media. It seems that Morning Consult and CNN are going against the evidence of reality.

    But still, you decide which it true.

  72. Bitterlaw says:

    Who will be the first Dem and first GOP Senate candidate to say “the only poll that counts is on Election Day”?

  73. DW says:

    First, what was the margin in OH, Trump over Hillary? Got it in your mind? Ok, ready?

    Suffolk – Ohio

    Sample is voters from 2016 that were Hillary +6

    OH Gov:
    Cordray (D) 46% (+6)
    DeWine (R) 40%

    OH Sen:
    Brown (D – Inc) 54% (+18)
    Renacci (R) 36%

    Garbage in, garbage out.

  74. DW says:

    I wonder if there has ever been a candidate who said “The only poll that counts is the one on election day” and then pulled off a surprising upset?

  75. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #71- mnw
    Unbelievable that you have been admonished by a moderator at RRH for referring to a politician as a “desert rat”. Who is RRR?

  76. DW says:

    Cash Cow, please be careful you don’t go anywhere near Jon Tester:

    https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1050012350403829760

  77. Bitterlaw says:

    DW – My prediction for The Only Poll That Counts:

    GOP – Barletta (PA)
    Dem – Heidi

  78. Bitterlaw says:

    Good for Tester. I am sure all of those shootings were in self-defense.

  79. Chicon says:

    74 – is their sample what they got by using their likely voter screen? If so – and not an outlier – isn’t this troublesome for the good guys?

  80. gameboy says:

    “Who will be the first Dem and first GOP Senate candidate to say “the only poll that counts is on Election Day”?”

    These days they all should be saying that. Anyone who takes these agenda driven polls serious needs their head examined. Does anyone who posts these polls ever look at the internals?? what a joke.

  81. dblaikie says:

    I don’t know about polls but I do believe that Senator Tester needs to be forever more labeled as the “Cow Hunter!”

    Thanks for the post, DW!

  82. DW says:

    RRR
    October 10, 2018 at 10:01 am | In reply to strawdog
    “Desert rat” is language unbecoming of this website. You lose credibility with attacks like that, and there’s plenty to fairly attack here. This is a final warning on your tone.

    New PA-5/IL-9/NY-7. More Catharine and Charlie Bakers.

    If I could post on RRH I would reply with, ‘Hey hypocritical idiot…tell your other moderator to stop calling Trump ‘His Orangeness’ then, and we will call it even.”

  83. Todd McCain says:

    It really is amazing how uncompetitive the OH SEN race is….

  84. Mr.Vito says:

    Apparently no one reads overnight posts.

  85. mnw says:

    DW

    I doubt I will last much longer at The Wise Men’s site.

    RE: new AZ Sen poll:

    It has the Green candidate at 4%. The other polls, as far as I know, didn’t include the Green candidate. I doubt the Green candidate gets 4% in real life, & that could explain why McSally is doing better in the new poll than in previous polls, perhaps. The pollster (who?) also sites increased support for Trump for McSally’s improvement.

  86. Mr.Vito says:

    Sinema was a member of the British Armoured?

  87. Todd McCain says:

    McSally could also be doing well because Ducey is just winning an overwhelming landslide. Abbott is also helping Cruz. Lee is helping Blackburn. Odds they all win together.

  88. Mr.Vito says:

    SUSA has Kemp(R) up 2 for Georgia Governor.

  89. BayernFan says:

    NT

  90. CG says:

    So, Bost shot someone’s dog years ago and now Tester is shooting cows?

  91. CG says:

    The animated models for Hurricane Michael should be in the color of salmon.

  92. CG says:

    “Dessert Rat” went viral last year from a New York subway video. Apparently, a friend of “Pizza Rat.”