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Hogan Leads By 18% in MD, McSally Leads By 6% in AZ, Kemp Leads By 2% in GA

As promised, we did get that second poll for the gubernatorial race in Maryland and it shows a similar dominating lead for Republican Larry Hogan according to Gonzales Research.

GOVERNOR – MARYLAND (Gonzales)
Larry Hogan (R-inc) 54%
Ben Jealous (D) 36%

Hogan’s job approval rating is an absurd 72% at this moment including an even more ridiculous approval of 67% among DEMOCRATS! This poll was done October 1-6 among 806 likely voters. Meanwhile in Georgia, Brian Kemp has taken a small lead in a new poll from Survey USA in his bid to keep this gubernatorial seat in Republican hands.

GOVERNOR – GEORGIA (Survey USA)
Brian Kemp (R) 47%
Stacey Abrams (D) 45%

This poll was done October 3-8 among 1027 registered voters. Finally, Republicans get some good news in Arizona in a new poll from OH Predictive Insights that has Martha McSally now up by 6%.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (OHPI)
Martha McSally (R) 47%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 41%

This poll was done October 1-2 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 10:56 am
Filed under: General | Comments (411)

411 Responses to “Hogan Leads By 18% in MD, McSally Leads By 6% in AZ, Kemp Leads By 2% in GA”

  1. BayernFan says:

    Foist

  2. Wes says:

    It would be nice if Hogan could win a Senate race with those numbers. It won’t happen in MD.

  3. Todd McCain says:

    PPP:

    Abrams and Kemp tied at 46. Likely indicating a 3-4 point Kemp lead.

  4. Wes says:

    I have to admit Corey made chuckle at this one:

    CG says:
    October 10, 2018 at 11:03 am
    The animated models for Hurricane Michael should be in the color of salmon.

  5. Robbie says:

    It looks like TX and TN are falling off the board for Democrats.

    Now, the focus of Republican attention and money should focus on AZ, NV, MO, and IN.

    I think ND is already a lost cause for Democrats. On the flip side, I think WV is out of reach for Republicans.

    I suppose under the right circumstances Republicans could still sneak out wins against FL and MT, but it doesn’t seem likely right now.

  6. Todd McCain says:

    If the Florida Hurricane response is good, it should propel Scott. Nelson is on the sidelines with all of this.

  7. CG says:

    This hurricane situation, which hopefully will result in as little damage as possible, might have a major influence on the FL Senate race. People tend to like how Scott handles natural disasters.

    Where is Chris Christie when you need him?

  8. Todd McCain says:

    Also, I really would like to see another WV poll. Seems that Manchin’s D base is eroding for the Kav vote. Maybe it got him more Trump voters as well…who knows.

  9. CG says:

    CNN puts has been putting Bill Nelson on every morning so he can give admonishments to Floridians about the impending storm, while standing in the hallway of the Senate Office building.

  10. Todd McCain says:

    If we get to 54, we can easily withstand the 2020 Senate map.

  11. Robbie says:

    I think Ducey will help McSally in Arizona, Abbott will help Cruz in Texas, and the Republican governor candidate will help Blackburn in Tennessee.

    On the flip side, I think DeSantis (who was always a bad candidate) will not help Scott. Could a successful hurricane recovery help Scott? You bet. Would Scott be in a much better position if Putnam was the nominee? I think so. Trump should not have meddled in the FL primary.

  12. Todd McCain says:

    Putnam would have been a much stronger nominee. Yes.

  13. DW says:

    Not that its news, but 538 is flat out dishonest. The CNN generic ballot hit their forecasting formula like a boulder sized rock in a tiny pool.

    It put a huge turn in the trendline. Then today, the Rasmussen generic ballot hit showing a tied race and it didn’t move the needle at all, even though Rasmussen’s numbers are closer to consistent with the actual polling of individual seats than the far-out CNN poll which is impossible to be accurate given the numbers from each competitive seat.

  14. Robbie says:

    The disappointment about this cycle is the low ebb by Republicans came right before governors will be elected to oversee redistricting in 2021.

    Right now, Democrats could easily sweep the major states up for grabs in 2018. FL, GA, MI, OH, Il, and WI could all flip.

    Losing these races at this time could hamper Republican efforts to win back the House for a long time.

  15. JeffP says:

    I don’t even bother with 538 Nate anymore. Much better analysis here on this site.

    Awesome numbers coming GOP way now. It would be great if MT & FL flipped as well. Holding the house is looking better too…no?

  16. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    October 10, 2018 at 11:31 am
    Putnam would have been a much stronger nominee. Yes.

    – I think Putnam would have won with ease. Maybe approaching 10 points. I suppose DeSantis could still win, but he’s had to fire his campaign manager already and I’m not sure he’s lead a post primary poll yet. It’s a narrow race, but Gillam shouldn’t even be competitive.

    I’d like to think Trump will come to realize seeing politicians go on FoxNews and spout goofy stuff may make him feel better, but it’s not a good electoral strategy outside of a primary.

  17. Todd McCain says:

    You are correct, D hasn’t lead a poll, but the last two FL GOV polls have Gillum only up 1, so its not like he is running away with the race despite the flawed GOP candidate.

  18. sandiegocitizen says:

    Robbie, after your incorrect Kavanaugh predictions, are you still projecting a blue wave?

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    “So what does this group look like? Compared with the rest of the (nationally representative) polling sample, progressive activists are much more likely to be rich, highly educated—and white. They are nearly twice as likely as the average to make more than $100,000 a year. They are nearly three times as likely to have a postgraduate degree. And while 12 percent of the overall sample in the study is African American, only 3 percent of progressive activists are. With the exception of the small tribe of devoted conservatives, progressive activists are the most racially homogeneous group in the country.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/large-majorities-dislike-political-correctness/572581/

  20. Robbie says:

    There are a lot of great House members who are going to lose who shouldn’t. Why they’re going to lose is water under the bridge at this point. There’s a way for many of these seats to be won back in 2020, but I think that discussion is for after the election.

    If nothing else, it appears Republican will hold the Senate. It would sure help if they can gain a few seats in order to withstand whatever may happen in 2020. Alabama will be a gain in 2020 so that helps unless good ole Roy runs again. The ability to continue to confirm judges will be huge. I also think there’s a reasonable chance Thomas retires next Spring. If he doesn’t, he’s rolling the dice and he may not be able to retire for another decade.

    Fixing the problem the party has with woman (check any poll) will be job numero uno the day after the election.

  21. Robbie says:

    sandiegocitizen says:
    October 10, 2018 at 11:57 am
    Robbie, after your incorrect Kavanaugh predictions, are you still projecting a blue wave?

    – In the House, you bet. Looks like 30 seats right now. At the governor’s level, looks like it may happen. A lot of big states races don’t look promising. In the statehouse, still looks like Democrats could gain about 250 or more seats nationally.

    And since you read my posts closely, you know I have never made a similar prediction about the Senate.

  22. Robbie says:

    Ally Mutnick
    @allymutnick

    NEW: @NRCC has cancelled TV/radio reservations in #TX23 from 10/16 through Election Day, per media buying source.

    That’s a show of confidence in the reelection prospects of GOP Rep. @WillHurd, who has had a sizable lead in private & public polling of race.

  23. Mr.Vito says:

    Yesterday, I noted the the median difference between the Siena polls and partisan PVI had shifted from R-6 to R-1 since the Martinez/Avenatti allegations. That would put the house at a coin flip if it holds.

    I think that is probably about right.

  24. Wes says:

    Robbie has GA flipping to the Dems. Why am I not surprised? ::facepalm::

  25. Wes says:

    So if Dems fail to win the House will they blame the Senate Dems?

  26. mnw says:

    SDC 18

    Do you care? REALLY?

    Jim Geraghty has a thoughtful midterm report up today at NRO. (Also linked at Powerline blog.) Mildly encouraging for GOP.

    Altho Geraghty doesn’t discuss it, apparently the DEMs are vastly outspending the GOP in the 40 or so battleground House districts, per Powerline. I assume that includes outside PAC spending also.

  27. Mr.Vito says:

    It will be interesting to see the next set of data from gallup.

    The PID has been about D+2 to D+3 since June. But, enthusiasm had been on the D side, and that changed during Kavanaugh.

    Their model had a GCB of D+5 in June, but then D+9 in September. However, they hedged this because it did not match the data I just preceded it with. The sample was taken September 17-23, which was exactly between the WAPO Ford story and the Ramirez/Avenatti stories. They noted that the GCB had exploded to something like a 25 point gap among women in the sample.

  28. GPO says:

    Todd McCain says:

    October 10, 2018 at 11:25 am

    If we get to 54, we can easily withstand the 2020 Senate map.

    Indeed- Colorado only 2020 one that seems problematic- and we win Alabama seat back

  29. Mr.Vito says:

    yougov generic D+6 RV

    Their voter likelihood is higher for men, white, older, higher income, republican.

    So, it will be interesting to see if they ever do a likely voter model.

  30. DW says:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    NY_23 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OH_10 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_06* R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_18 R | 167 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    TX_31 R | 168 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    WI_06 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    MI_06 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    MI_07 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    PA_16 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    NY_24 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    MT_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_07 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    IL_14 R | 183 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 184 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 186 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AR_02 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_10 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WI_01* R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    NE_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.8
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    TX_23 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.6
    WV_03* R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    PA_01 R | 199 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    NM_02* R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1
    FL_26 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.8
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    IL_12 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    ——–Robbie need ALL the below for correct January prediction——-
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    TX_32 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    MN_08* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    ME_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IL_06 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    ——–Robbie need ALL the below for correct Oct prediction——-
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    IA_03 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_10 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    WA_08* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    KS_03 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.1
    MI_11* R | 208 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.5
    FL_27* R | 207 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.5
    CO_06 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.6
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    PA_07* R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
    AZ_02* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_03* D | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 197 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    NV_04* D | 195 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    CA_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    OR_05 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    you gov

    If Donald Trump runs for re-election in 2020, would that make you more or less likely to vote the Republican Congressional candidate in the district where you live, or would it have no effect on how you vote?

    More likely to vote for the Republican Congressional candidate . . 27%

    Less likely to vote for the Republican Congressional candidate . . 27%

    Have no effect on your vote choice . . .40%

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    yougov

    What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s congressional elections?

    Congress controlled by Democrats . . 35%
    Congress controlled by Republicans . . 33%
    Congress divided between both parities . . . 13%

  33. DW says:

    And dashboard based on polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/44 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 50/46 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    ——–Robbie need ALL the below for correct January prediction——-
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Seina) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    ——–Robbie need ALL the below for correct Oct prediction——-
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | -6
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | -10
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24

  34. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 10, 2018 at 12:12 pm
    Robbie has GA flipping to the Dems. Why am I not surprised? ::facepalm::

    – No, I do not. Read my comments more closely.

    I wrote COULD. Stop lying.

  35. NYCmike says:

    “Who will be the first Dem and first GOP Senate candidate to say “the only poll that counts is on Election Day”?”

    -Ted Cruz?

  36. NYCmike says:

    You COULD have the whole government flipping to the Dems……..depends on how badly your panties are bunched up.

  37. Redmen4ever says:

    Hillary: civility will start when Democrats win

    Was that meant to be a compliment? Republicans respect winners of elections because they’re grown-ups while Democrats don’t respect winners of elections because, emotionally, they’re children.

    When do Democrats stop rioting? When the convenience stores shut down.

  38. Waingro says:

    The Reagan Battalion
    ?Verified account @ReaganBattalion

    BREAKING: UNCOVERED AUDIO: Arizona Democratic Senate Candidate @kyrstensinema invites anarchists and communists to a 2003 protest in Phoenix Arizona.

    https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/1050043638380732416

  39. Tina says:

    Lord Arsehat is predicting a drat sweep.

  40. sandiegocitizen says:

    Afraid the Democrats predictions of a blue wave, are now a blue ripple. A 55 seat gain is now 30 seats optimistically. Republicans hold Senate. This is all because of self-destructive behavior by Democrats in Kavanaugh hearings. It is a preview of the craziness that will take place in 2020.

  41. Blobbie says:

    The way things now stand, I think the Dems could win every congressional seat.

  42. mnw says:

    Wain 38

    I’ve concluded that AZ voters just don’t care about Sinema’s radical history.

    I guess those that do care decided to vote for McSally way before it all came out.

  43. Tina says:

    Breaking

    The jebots are panicking. They call an all hands on deck.

    Looks like they net 23 seats per Hush, but not enough to win control of house and are looking at a 3 seat loss in the Senate, which could crest to 8.

    The Drats have asked that the Clintunes, both the Rapist and Her Thighness to stay away,

    Want Moochelle to be front and center,

  44. sandiegocitizen says:

    Just what the Democrats need right now, the reemergence of Hillary and Bill Clinton. Just the people you want to see after a controversy over sexual harassment. But it gets better, Anthony Weiner is about to be paroled. So he can now join the Hillary victory tour.

  45. Blobbie says:

    I predict that the Democrats could sweep GA, UT, ID and NC

    All the Democrats need to do is get more votes than the republican candidates and they will win

    You heard it hear first!

  46. Chicon says:

    I have faith in the people of AZ. McSally will win a tight one, imo.

  47. lisab says:

    Clinton would beat Trump in landslide in 2016 re-run, says Hill.TV poll

    President Trump would lose the popular vote again if the 2016 presidential election were held again today, according to a new Hill.TV poll.

    The survey conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company found that 36 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump, while 44 percent said they would cast their vote for Clinton.

    Four percent said they would back Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while 2 percent said they would vote for the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Three percent named some other person.

  48. DW says:

    WI – Gov

    Marquette

    Walker 47%
    Evers 46%
    Anderson 5%
    no preference 1%

  49. Todd McCain says:

    48. WOW. Never count Walker out!

  50. Chicon says:

    48 – that’s a BOOM, no?

  51. DW says:

    I waffled on including a BOOM, but I expected Walker to come back, so not surprised.

  52. Tina says:

    Mcsally wins over Enema

    By 3 to 5.

    Az is slipping away from the Ds

    Keep in mind, party registration numbers were good for the Rs as was the recent primary.

  53. Tina says:

    That deserved a Boom.

    Re do your posit, Dw.

    Walker never quits and he is a finisher.

  54. Tina says:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/october_2018/gop_voters_madder_more_likely_to_vote_because_of_kavanaugh

    From the article linked above:

    Sixty-two percent (62%) of Republicans are more likely to vote because of the Kavanaugh controversy, compared to 54% of Democrats and 46% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

    Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters are angry about the U.S. Senate’s treatment of Kavanaugh, with 42% who are Very Angry. Fifty-six percent (56%) are angry about how the Senate treated Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault, including 35% who are Very Angry.

    Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans are Very Angry about the Senate’s treatment of Kavanaugh, a view shared by 30% of Democrats and 34% of unaffiliated voters. By comparison, fewer Democrats (48%) are Very Angry about the Senate’s treatment of Ford; 28% of GOP voters and 30% of unaffiliateds agree.

    Liked by 1 person

    Looks like the trump base, the “angry white males” will be coming out.

  55. lisab says:

    just an observation from Minnesota

    there is almost no enthusiasm for the election that i can see …

    i have not really seen any signs at all. no one is really talking about it.

    the only life i have seen was when trump held a rally in rochester, mn a couple of weeks ago … but it has not translated into an upsurge of republican messages

    there is just not much going on here on either side,

    although i don’t live in the twin cities, so it might be different there, but i have visited there, and have not seen any signs there either.

  56. lisab says:

    to put that in perspective

    rural western NY had many trump signs still up from 2016.

    in minnesot, i don’t think i have seen any political signs, i am sure they exist, just not widespread

  57. Waingro says:

    Second Day Of Live Polling By @UpshotNYT/@SienaResearch:

    #TNsen:
    Blackburn (R) 57 (+18)
    Bredesen (D) 39
    (366 LV)

    #TXsen:
    Cruz (R – Inc) 53 (+9)
    O’Rourke (D) 44
    (526 LV)

    #NVsen:
    Heller (R – inc) 46 (+1)
    Rosen (D) 45
    (464 LV)

    *Numbers Are Still Not Final*

  58. Waingro says:

    New #MOSen poll shows Josh Hawley maintaining 1-point lead over Claire McCaskill. Incredible how static this race has been.

    Hawley 45%
    McCaskill 44%

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepolls/kavanaugh-vote-changes-few-minds-in-close-missouri-us-senate-race-idUSKCN1MK13N

  59. lisab says:

    Waingro,

    i think she could be in real trouble if the gop stays angry.

    i just don’t see dem turnout being very good — because it is a mid-term and the dems are a little down after losing on kavanaugh

    the rabid anti-trump people will of course come out, but that is not enough.

    my husband registered to vote last week. he really is not political, but he was angry over kavanaugh. i doubt he will stay angry though.

  60. lisab says:

    i am thinking of dressing up as senator warren this halloween … here is my potential costume

    https://c.shld.net/rpx/i/s/i/spin/10130784/prod_1512087812?hei=416&wid=416&op_sharpen=1

  61. Mr.Vito says:

    Am I hearing wrong?

    In that Sinema clip, the guy asks

    “Bring your sidearm?”

    and she concludes (in the state where Gabrielle Giffords was shot)

    “Whatever decision you make is your choice”

  62. Chicon says:

    Robbie’s never gonna be a glass half full type of guy. But, I’ll give him a compliment – lately he’s been analyzing races and trying to keep his thoughts about Trump out of it. Good to see, imo.

  63. Redmen4ever says:

    Boom!

    Walker +1

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1050073825864507399

    >>Vukmir a bit behind. But … we don’t leave anybody behind.

  64. NYCmike says:

    Both Walker and Scott have loads of voter data at their disposal. They get their voters out.

    I predicted both of them will win, and I still do, with Walker’s chances being higher, as he is running for the same office. Scott going for a different office does make it more difficult, but I believe he pulls it out.

  65. Mr.Vito says:

    Inside the eyewall.

    https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OyJAQWOqyoJb?t=7s

    At 155 mph and 919mb pressure, Michael will be one of the 10 most powerful hurricane at US landfall.

    Need to see the official numbers.

  66. Mr.Vito says:

    Aaron Blake
    ?Verified account @AaronBlake

    Eric Holder: “Michelle [Obama] always says, ‘When they go low, we go high.’ No. No. When they go low, we kick them.”

  67. EML says:

    The Libertarian candidate in WI ain’t getting 5% (0.78% in 2014 and 0.31% in 2010).

  68. Human Question says:

    San Fransh!tsco

    Is that why Harry is dirty?

  69. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is going to poll PA-01

  70. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 10, 2018 at 12:57 pm
    You COULD have the whole government flipping to the Dems……..depends on how badly your panties are bunched up.

    – President of the Richard Mourdock fan club checks in.

  71. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    October 10, 2018 at 1:24 pm
    I have faith in the people of AZ. McSally will win a tight one, imo.

    – One way or another, she’ll be in the Senate in 2019. Either she wins, or Doucy appoints her to fill the seat Kyl is currently holding since he’s made clear he would only promise to serve until the end of this session.

  72. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    October 10, 2018 at 1:57 pm
    Robbie’s never gonna be a glass half full type of guy. But, I’ll give him a compliment – lately he’s been analyzing races and trying to keep his thoughts about Trump out of it. Good to see, imo.

    – Senate races can often have their own vibes, but the House races are usually a direct function of the president’s standing in a midterm. If Trump hadn’t spent the last two years aggravating people, there’s little chance the House would be in the peril it is.

  73. Todd McCain says:

    Comstock Internal:

    Leading 48-47

  74. mnw says:

    EML 68

    Same thing with new AZ poll showing McSally +6. It has the Green Party nominee at 4%! Unh-uh. That’s silly.

    So, the new AZ poll probably underestimates Sinema. I don’t see the voters who selected “Green” in the poll going for McSally.

  75. Waingro says:

    #74, which means she’s probably losing by about 4-5 points.

  76. EML says:

    The Green candidate got 5.5% in the 2016 US Senate election in AZ.

  77. Mr.Vito says:

    Just had a tornado warning.

  78. Waingro says:

    Not sure this is as exciting as @ReaganBattalion thinks, but FWIW.

    The Reagan Battalion
    ?Verified account @ReaganBattalion
    5m5 minutes ago

    Breaking: New poll:

    @JohnJamesMI 42%
    Stabenow 51%

    He was 18 points behind just a few weeks ago.

    Also leads with independents by 3%.

    This race is getting real!

    (Mitchell Research Poll)

  79. Mr.Vito says:

    More warnings.

  80. GF says:

    79- THIS IS REAL!!! THIS IS HAPPENING!!!

  81. Robbie says:

    There’s a clip on Mediaite from this morning’s episode of Morning Joe (sorry, Phil). The topic was Nikki Haley and what her political future might hold.

    You can watch it if you’d like, but I think her announcement raises an interesting issue. What is her future? I have little doubt she will NOT challenge Trump in 2020. Right now, he’s simply too strong with party voters.

    Most suggested her announcement yesterday was the first shot fired in the 2024 primary. And by getting out now, she can avoid whatever fallout there is from election day 2018. Maybe. However, she also runs the risk of becoming the 2024 version of Chris Christie.

    In October 2011, GWB, Nancy Reagan, Henry Kissenger, the WSJ editorial page, and other prominent Republicans begged Christie to run. He decided he wasn’t ready and waited for 2016. As we saw, that didn’t work well. Didn’t work well for Jeb either. In today’s politics, run when the opportunity is there, not when you’re “ready”.

    So if Nikki Haley isn’t going to run in 2020, what does she do to keep her name in the news? She doesn’t seem interested in the Senate and she’s already been governor. If Trump wins again, maybe another cabinet position? It’s hard to imagine because six years is multiple lifetimes in politics.

    Of course if Trump chooses not to run in 2020, she’s probably the premier choice in 2020, right?

  82. Waingro says:

    #78, 80, be safe, Vito. Hope everything goes ok down there.

  83. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 10, 2018 at 3:16 pm
    More warnings.

    – Stay safe.

  84. mnw says:

    EML 77

    And Green wasn’t even on the ballot when Flake won in 2012. The Libertarian got 1.4% that year.

    I don’t think the McCain GE blowout is the right paradigm for a close election, do you?

    When McCain was romping, it was safer to vote 3rd party.

    I will make my second prediction*, so far: The Green in AZ gets less than 2%.

    *my first was that Bost (R-inc) gets re-elected in IL-12. I said that at a time when there was a lot of talk about how much trouble Bost was supposedly in.

  85. Waingro says:

    #82, comparing her to Christie Cremes is apples to oranges.

    Christie was still an elected official and had Bridgegate effectively kill off his political capitol before his suicide mission of taking out Rubio and becoming Trump’s “Reek” killed off any political future whatsoever.

    I don’t see any potential landmines of that nature for Haley as she ventures off into the private sector for a few years.

    I do agree that she would be very poised to fill the gap that Trump would leave should he not run in 2020. But Pence would likely be the front runner.

  86. CG says:

    Serious questions for those of you who intend to vote for Donald Trump no matter what in 2020…

    Would you prefer his running-mate be Pence or Haley?

    Whom do you think would be a greater benefit politically?

  87. Bitterlaw says:

    Good luck and be safe, Mr. Vito. We have many a-holes but few A-holes.

  88. phoenixrisen says:

    #79 — Wain, always said that would be a race to watch. James is a good candidate. McConnell needs to dump some money into some ad buys there. Outside of the standard ND, MT, MO, FL, and IN pick-up opportunities, my next choice would be MI and OH. Polling out of Ohio hasn’t been good for Renacci. James can self fund though as well.

  89. Phil says:

    I am not completely convinced Trump runs again in 2020. Odds are he does, but there is a chance he will have had enough. If so, Haley is my candidate. I think she would be a strong candidate and a great president. I’d absolutely be enthusiastic about her and give to her primary campaign.

  90. Tina says:

    Yes, let’s please have Eric Holder, porn lawyer, and Michelle be the faces of the Drats.

    They were better off with Camera Hogg.

  91. Redmen4ever says:

    How to reconcile media polls showing historic level advantage for Democrats in the generic congressional AND Republicans showing real strength in many purple states:

    10. The American public is schizophrenic.
    9. The American public wants divided government.
    8. The American public likes Republicans but not the Republican Party.
    7. Republicans think “generic” is the name of an illegal alien.
    6. Republicans are off the grid.
    5. Republicans break off 30-plus question live-caller interviews, but complete 10 question IVR interviews.
    4. More simply, “Hello, I’m from CNN … ” click.
    3. Operation Chaos, 2018 edition.
    2. The age old problem of within-cell bias versus post-stratification.
    1. Media polls are fake.

  92. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 10, 2018 at 3:25 pm
    #82, comparing her to Christie Cremes is apples to oranges.
    Christie was still an elected official and had Bridgegate effectively kill off his political capitol before his suicide mission of taking out Rubio and becoming Trump’s “Reek” killed off any political future whatsoever.
    I don’t see any potential landmines of that nature for Haley as she ventures off into the private sector for a few years.
    I do agree that she would be very poised to fill the gap that Trump would leave should he not run in 2020. But Pence would likely be the front runner.

    – At least with Christie, he had the benefit of being a high profile governor during the second Obama term. It didn’t end well for him because of Bridgegate, but there were plenty of people who viewed him as old news in 2015 regardless of that. I know I was disappointed he didn’t run in 2012.

    My point is this. How does Nikki Haley stay relevant for six years? For instance, Jeb spent loads of time in the private sector from 2007 to 2015. As a result of not being part of the active political discussion for so long, he simply had none of the juice he might have had had he run in 2012.

    If there’s no Trump second term, my guess is people with elected positions will be the ones who dominate the coverage between 2020 and 2024. Without an office like governor or Senate or a reality TV show, a candidate is basically Rick Santorum.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump drops Pence in 2020 and makes Haley his VP. I’m still not 100% convinced he runs again, but I think the odds of that are better today than they were six months ago.

  93. Todd McCain says:

    I think he def runs again and likely wins. Switching out the VP’s would be interesting.

  94. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 10, 2018 at 3:32 pm
    I am not completely convinced Trump runs again in 2020. Odds are he does, but there is a chance he will have had enough. If so, Haley is my candidate. I think she would be a strong candidate and a great president. I’d absolutely be enthusiastic about her and give to her primary campaign.

    – Right where I am at this point. I’m not totally convinced Trump runs again and I think Haley would be perfectly position to be the nominee. She’s got “it” whatever “it” is. Pence, not so much in comparison to her.

    Honestly, I can’t think of any Democrat who could come close to beating her in 2020 and I say that as someone who usually sees the downside of every candidate.

  95. Tina says:

    John Cardillo
    @johncardillo
    2h
    ICYMI, Hillary Clinton said the incivility and violence against Republicans and Trump supporters won’t end until Democrats are back in power. In other words, the leader of the Resistance has told her troops to increase their attacks. breitbart.com/video/2018/10/…
    View summary ·

    *the Jebots Hillary is the gift that keeps on giving, she is an idiot.

  96. Tina says:

    Keep pence. Indiana will be a blow out and we do not have to worry bout that Midwest state.

    It is clear that she will be moved into the sos position at the 2nd term.

    As far as her replacement, neither Dina Powell nor Mullah Corker are appealing,

  97. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 10, 2018 at 3:28 pm
    Serious questions for those of you who intend to vote for Donald Trump no matter what in 2020…
    Would you prefer his running-mate be Pence or Haley?
    Whom do you think would be a greater benefit politically?

    – I don’t intend to vote for Trump no matter what, but, politically speaking, Haley seems like a much better political benefit.

    If you believe Trump has a major problem with women, placing a women on the ticket like Haley would seem like a way to potentially mitigate some of those problems.

  98. Waingro says:

    ” Right where I am at this point. I’m not totally convinced Trump runs again and I think Haley would be perfectly position to be the nominee. She’s got “it” whatever “it” is. Pence, not so much in comparison to her.”

    I tend to agree. But I think Pence would at least start out as the front runner and very likely gobble up most of the MAGA support and Trump resources at first (depending on if another “populist” type decides to step in.)

    Unfortunately, I also think that a lot of 2016 retreads would throw their hats in the ring again as well, creating another at-least mini Clown Show and making it a little tougher for anyone, including Haley, to get any immediate traction.

  99. Diamond Jim says:

    C

  100. Wes says:

    I have a hard time seeing how one poll showing James down 9 with Stabenow over 50% justifies dumping money into MI.

  101. Justin says:

    Trump needs to spend a lot of time in Missouri over the next few weeks. Please tell me we aren’t going to be stuck with Claire for six more years and she won’t eek out another win!

    I want to see more Montana polling as well.

    Good to be back on here after a 2 year break 🙂

  102. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 10, 2018 at 3:46 pm
    Unfortunately, I also think that a lot of 2016 retreads would throw their hats in the ring again as well, creating another at-least mini Clown Show and making it a little tougher for anyone, including Haley, to get any immediate traction.

    – UGH!

  103. lisab says:

    79- THIS IS REAL!!! THIS IS HAPPENING!!!
    ——————–

    wasn’t that MD’s insult to those who dared to say trump would not get destroyed in the election …

    not win mind you … just those who said trump would not get crushed

  104. Wes says:

    In a few weeks, Larry Hogan will be the first white man to beat two black men for a statewide office in different years. Will Dems call MD voters racist for Hogan’s victories?

  105. DW says:

    This is Real! This is Happening! goes back to that deadender MS senate GOP primary. We had a troll here who kept saying that right up until the deadender candidate lost.

  106. Todd McCain says:

    MI and OH are gone.

  107. Wes says:

    Actually, Lisa, MD stole that from a former poster called Macs CA-25, who coined the phrase after posting a news story about Chris McDaniel’s ill-fated attempt to overturn the 2014 MS primary results.

    Mikey and McDaniel still haven’t acknowledged Thad Cochran won that primary.

  108. lisab says:

    unless trump has a health issue or a huge scandal

    i think he runs in 2020

  109. Wes says:

    Trump has found the ideal job for him wherein the entire world revolves around him. Why would he give that up by not seeking reelection?

  110. Diamond Jim says:

    I’m glad someone took Mr.Vito down from the clothesline before the hurricane hit.

  111. lisab says:

    i think he enjoys it too much to give it up

    he has said that he has retired from business,

    what else would he do?

    i cannot see pence winning, except … that the dem field is so weak right now.

  112. NYCmike says:

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/10/10/donald-trump-democrats-open-borders-medicare-all-single-payer-column/1560533002/

    -“Liberal Democrat” President Trump strikes again!

    “CG” and Robbie, maybe they are still looking to abolish Social Security and Medicare…….

    …..or maybe they don’t agree with this statement: “Today’s Democratic Party is for open-borders socialism. This radical agenda would destroy American prosperity. Under its vision, costs will spiral out of control. Taxes will skyrocket. And Democrats will seek to slash budgets for seniors’ Medicare, Social Security and defense.”

  113. Wes says:

    Gonzales says Trump is at 41–55 in MD. He actually ran two points behind the doomed 2016 Senate candidate’s 36% showing, so that’s a rather good improvement.

  114. lisab says:

    Emotional support squirrel gets woman kicked off Frontier flight

    the flight was delayed for an hour and passengers had to de-plane because woman insisted she take her squirrel on a plane.

    squirrels are not on the list of emotional support animals allowed on flights

  115. NYCmike says:

    So, Trump would cast aside Pence, who has been steady as a rock, without scandal, political and/or sexual in nature, and who helped him win the first term, and is very well respected in the pro-life, conservative communities??

    WHY would he do that?

  116. lisab says:

    Ainsley Earhardt is on the market again

    her husband is divorcing her

  117. Waingro says:

    #103, “– UGH!”

    Ha. Sorry, but you know it’s true. My guess is, at a minimum, Cruz, Paul, The Huckster and probably Kasich run in that scenario. Rubio, Walker and maybe Ben Carson consider as well.

    Then there will be some wacky “populist” MAGA types who might feel they can fill that lost gap like Sheriff David Clarke or Palin etc.

    Having said all that, I think it’s extremely likely Trump runs

    It likely won’t be as nasty and depressing as 2016, but “Send in the Clowns” will still be a featured song.

  118. Wes says:

    On the subject of MD, it actually voted for GHWB in 1988 (probably because of Willie Horton) while IA voted for Dukakis.

    My, how times have changed.

  119. Waingro says:

    #118, oops, the last two sentences should be flipped.

  120. lisab says:

    So, Trump would cast aside Pence,
    —————

    no

    and why would haley accept?

    vp is not the best position to run for president, sos is

  121. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 10, 2018 at 4:06 pm
    #103, “– UGH!”
    Ha. Sorry, but you know it’s true. My guess is, at a minimum, Cruz, Paul, The Huckster and probably Kasich run in that scenario. Rubio, Walker and maybe Ben Carson consider as well.
    Then there will be some wacky “populist” MAGA types who might feel they can fill that lost gap like Sheriff David Clarke or Palin etc.
    Having said all that, I think it’s extremely likely Trump runs
    It likely won’t be as nasty and depressing as 2016, but “Send in the Clowns” will still be a featured song.

    – I feel like crying. All of this is quite possible if Trump doesn’t run.

  122. Wes says:

    Lisa, the last sitting SOS to become President was James Monroe in 1816. The last sitting Vice-President to become President was GHWB in 1988.

  123. CG says:

    105. This will also apply to Ben Cardin in MD this year who is once again facing a black opponent.

    I am sure there have been other examples of statewide winners, especially in down ballot races to which it would also apply.

  124. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 10, 2018 at 4:04 pm
    So, Trump would cast aside Pence, who has been steady as a rock, without scandal, political and/or sexual in nature, and who helped him win the first term, and is very well respected in the pro-life, conservative communities??
    WHY would he do that?

    – Switching VP’s was somewhat common in the past, but here’s the thing. FDR for example.

    Do you really have a hard time imagining the ultimate showman doing the ultimate showman thing?

    If Trump wants to run again and believes he has to fix his problem with women, well why not chose a woman like Haley?

  125. CG says:

    Johnny Isaskson of Georgia beat black Senate opponents in both 2004 and 2010. (one was a woman though)

  126. Wes says:

    I knew Cardin beat black opponents in both the primary and the general in 2006, Corey. I didn’t know Republicans had found a black man to be a sacrificial lamb against Cardin this year.

    Not surprising since CArdin is a lock for a third term.

  127. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 10, 2018 at 4:09 pm
    Lisa, the last sitting SOS to become President was James Monroe in 1816. The last sitting Vice-President to become President was GHWB in 1988.

    – But if Trump picks Haley and loses in 2020, Haley will probably be very well positioned for 2024. Pence would be as well since he won’t have the loss on his record.

    Of course, this all goes back to my initial point. If Haley wants to be POTUS and I think that’s pretty clear, how does she keep her name ID high for SIX years if 2024 is her goal? It’s far more likely someone else will come onto the scene and steal her thunder.

  128. Wes says:

    That’s true. I’d forgotten Isakson beat a black woman in 2004. Denise Majette. Very pretty, extremely liberal. At least she removed Cynthia McKinney from office for the first time.

  129. Wes says:

    Veeps on losing tickets rarely fare well when running for President, Robbie. See Mondale and Dole.

    Then again there is the Roosevelt exception.

  130. CG says:

    MS Governor Phil Bryant defeated black male opponents in both 2011 and 2015.

  131. CG says:

    Denise Majette once supported Alan Keyes for President.

  132. Wes says:

    Her congressional voting record was slightly less liberal than McKinney’s.

  133. CG says:

    Louisiana Governor Mike Foster in 1995 and 1999 (both Congressmen)

  134. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 10, 2018 at 4:18 pm
    Veeps on losing tickets rarely fare well when running for President, Robbie. See Mondale and Dole.
    Then again there is the Roosevelt exception.

    – Yep, but timing is everything. FDR would have lost had he run in 1924 or 1928, but 1932 was just right. Not sure there ever would have been a right time for Mondale and Dole though.

    I don’t think being the losing VP nominee is a strong platform from which to run and become president, but it is a strong platform from which to become a future nominee.

    Again, Haley is a smart cookie. I take her at her word she wants to make some money, but I think everyone agrees she wants to be POTUS.

    Six years is such a long time to stay relevant when that person has no political office to use as a platform.

  135. Wes says:

    Well, 1932 wouldn’t have been Roosevelt’s time had Hoover not been saddled with the Great Depression. (Thank you, Smoot-Hawley!)

  136. DW says:

    137 – Definitely a BOOM…I have been saying all along he should win there.

  137. Wes says:

    Damn you, GF! I was just about to post that!

  138. DW says:

    oh wow, that was the Elway Poll, they are pretty solid as a pollster.

  139. Wes says:

    It would be nice if Republicans could ever start winning Senate or gubernatorial races in WA again.

  140. DW says:

    Sabato and Politico have WA_08 as Lean D, while 538 has it tilt D. The rest said tossup.

  141. Wes says:

    Of course Washingtonians let Dems steak the 2004 gubernatorial race flagrantly and later elected the loathsome murderer-coddling Jay Inslee Governor. The Evergreen State is too far gone.

  142. dblaikie says:

    Well I guess these results teach what polls to believe on the national generic level. With all these local results Rasmussen is far closer to the truth than CNN and Morning Consult.

  143. CG says:

    Trivia-

    Name a post-war politician who defeated two siblings in different statewide elections.

  144. DW says:

    Part of the thinking by the pundits in seats like WA_08 is that these seats with a slight R tilt and a retiring GOP incumbent, really are filled with people who have just been dying to get a liberal Democrat in there, but just keep voting R out of habit, so now that its an open set, its a slam dunk for a flip.

    Turns out that slight R tilt is more heartfelt than just an entrenched incumbent.

  145. Mr.Vito says:

    Got a cell moving right over my house in 5-10 min.

  146. Wes says:

    That would have to be Pete Wilson, who beat Jerry Brown and Brown’s sister in 1982 and 1994 respectively .

  147. lisab says:

    Lisa, the last sitting SOS to become President was James Monroe in 1816. The last sitting Vice-President to become President was GHWB in 1988.
    ——————————

    i was thinking in terms of haley herself.

    the only position in the cabinet she is obviously qualified for is sos.

    but you are correct in that kerry and clinton did not manage to win the wh from that position.

    what else is there? she is not a lawyer, so doj is out.

  148. DW says:

    Blackburn up 57/39 in the ongoing Siena poll of TN senate. I wonder if they have a mercy rule where the stop calling because it just isn’t going to get any better.

  149. CG says:

    149. That’s right

  150. Wes says:

    Godspeed, Vito.

  151. lisab says:

    “If Trump wants to run again and believes he has to fix his problem with women, well why not chose a woman like Haley?”

    because dumping a loyal wingman like pence would lose him the election

    which i understand you would like.

  152. Wes says:

    The joke in CA after 1994 was that the only Brown Wilson hadn’t beaten was Charlie Brown.

  153. Tina says:

    Pete Wilson was a great governor too.

    Way better than Schwarznkennedy.

  154. DW says:

    Just a helpful reminding as to how far Rossi is below the magic line:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    NY_23 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OH_10 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_06* R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_18 R | 167 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    TX_31 R | 168 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    WI_06 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    MI_06 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    MI_07 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    PA_16 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    NY_24 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    MT_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_07 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    IL_14 R | 183 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 184 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 186 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AR_02 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_10 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WI_01* R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    NE_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.8
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    TX_23 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.6
    WV_03* R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    PA_01 R | 199 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    NM_02* R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1
    FL_26 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.8
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    IL_12 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    TX_32 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    MN_08* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    ME_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IL_06 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NC_09* R | 217 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    WA_08* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    KS_03 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.1
    MI_11* R | 208 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.5
    FL_27* R | 207 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.5
    CO_06 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.6
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    PA_07* R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
    AZ_02* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_03* D | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 197 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    NV_04* D | 195 | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    CA_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    OR_05 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  155. lisab says:

    also, given the current likely dem nominees

    trump will probably win reelection

  156. Tina says:

    Reid Wilson
    @PoliticsReid
    Follow
    WA 08 poll (Crosscut/Elway): Dino Rossi 49, Kim Schrier 39. Elway says Rossi got a big bump post-Kavanaugh hearings crosscut.com/2018/10/new-po…
    1:19 PM – 10 Oct 2018

    Rossi plus 10.

  157. Wes says:

    Wilson drove the CAGOP into the ground, Tina.

  158. DW says:

    Cruz now +10 in the Siena polling

  159. Waingro says:

    Boom. Time to update that list, DW!

    Reid Wilson
    ?Verified account @PoliticsReid

    WA 08 poll (Crosscut/Elway): Dino Rossi 49, Kim Schrier 39. Elway says Rossi got a big bump post-Kavanaugh hearings

    https://crosscut.com/2018/10/new-poll-shows-rossi-10-point-lead-8th-district

  160. Wes says:

    Dewhurst would probably be at +15 right now. Luckily TX is a one-party GOP state.

  161. Waingro says:

    Oh sorry, I see I am very late in posting that WA-08 poll! Already been discussed.

  162. CG says:

    Which husband and wife both sought statewide office (general election) in the same year with only one losing?

  163. Wes says:

    That would have to be the Huckabees in 2002. Mike won reelection while Ms. Huckabee lost.

  164. EML says:

    NYT live polls rolling again in TX and TN
    Cruz +10
    Blackburn +18
    PA-01 Fitzpatrick (R) up next

  165. NYCmike says:

    “If Trump wants to run again and believes he has to fix his problem with women, well why not chose a woman like Haley?”

    -Why would he think he has a problem with women?

    And why do you think women are so shallow that they would be more likely to vote for someone because Trump threw aside a competent MALE public servant for a competent FEMALE public servant?

  166. DW says:

    cannot update the dashboard of toupees until they up their rankings, but I can update the dashboard of actual polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/44 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 50/46 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Seina) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | -6
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | -10
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  167. Tina says:

    TRUTH – Benson: Dems’ Fight Against Kavanaugh United Never-Trumpers With Trump Supporters | Fox News Insider insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/10/guy…
    View summary ·

  168. NYCmike says:

    Cruz by 10…..what is the standard? If he wins by 10, 55%-45%, that will be a BAD LOSS due to his prickly nature?

    If he wins by more, will anyone here who consistently puts him down begin to acknowledge his good campaign skills and constituent services?

  169. CG says:

    What member of Congress was married to someone to have had a #1 Billboard Hot 100 single?

  170. Chicon says:

    Alan Keyes. Once ran against BHO for Senate in Illinois. What a choice….

  171. CG says:

    173. I voted for Keyes (and attended several rallies). What did you do?

  172. NYCmike says:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

    “Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain).”

    Yup, Trump has a women problem, especially compared to prior candidates…….what’s that……numbers are comparable or better??

  173. Tina says:

    Breaking

    Reports suggest Joe Loserman is on the short list for un ambassador.

    Please put in Bolton.

  174. Wes says:

    Dems couldn’t get to 45% of the vote with a Latino against John Cornyn in 2008, Mikey. That was the worst year for GOP Senate candidates thus far this century. Cruz was in a dogfight—and even personally sounding alarm bells—against a CA-style liberal with a prominent DUI until Dems threw him a lifeline with Kavanaugh.

    Had Cruz worked on his public image and paid more attention to TX than to his ego, he would never have been vulnerable. He’s winning handily now because Republicans are coming home after Kavanaugh. There’s no indication he was going to pull away from Beto before the Kavanaugh fiasco.

  175. CG says:

    Which former Governor has now seen two successive generations of family members eliminated from ABC’s “Dancing With the Stars?”

  176. Tina says:

    Muh woman problem will be replaced by Muh hurricane tomorrow,l

    Never let an opportunity pass,

  177. Wes says:

    Cruz is an incumbent running against Bernie Sanders lite in TX, where Dems last won a Senate race in 1988.

    There’s one reason this race was competitive: Ted Cruz.

    That doesn’t speak well to his constituent service skills.

  178. Chicon says:

    174 – Keyes, but he was an awful candidate. Ditka would have done better.

  179. Wes says:

    I voted for Richard Burr when Obama and Keyes faced off. The NCGOP wisely picked its best available candidate that year and the has seen him re-elected twice.

  180. Chicon says:

    Wes, there’s only one vote, so how can we say – other than early in the cycle polls – Punch-me Face Cruz was in a tight race if he wins by 10? Isn’t 10 points 10 points?

  181. CG says:

    The sweat from the brow of Alan Keyes collected during his U.S. Senate campaign kickoff announcement was auctioned off online.

  182. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 10, 2018 at 4:48 pm
    “If Trump wants to run again and believes he has to fix his problem with women, well why not chose a woman like Haley?”
    -Why would he think he has a problem with women?
    And why do you think women are so shallow that they would be more likely to vote for someone because Trump threw aside a competent MALE public servant for a competent FEMALE public servant?

    – I can read a poll. Can you?

  183. Wes says:

    Obama beat Keyes 70-27. Great choice by the ILGOP there. That lopsided loss also contributed to the defeat of longtime Congressman Phil Crane, who had succeeded Don Rumsfeld in the House.

  184. jason says:

    Despite Amoral Scumbag’s silly rants, Nikki Haley is not running for President in 2020 and Trump is not replacing Pence on the ticket.

    You read it here first.

  185. Chicon says:

    186 – perhaps so, Wes, but Crane was waaaay past his use by date when he lost.

  186. Wes says:

    Yes, Chicon. The point is that Cruz was underperforming in a state O’Rourke should never have been close in and forced Republicans to send resources better spent elsewhere to a state they should have never had a problem in.

    A win is a win, but a weak candidate is still a weak candidate even if circumstances provide a victory.

  187. CG says:

    I don’t think Phil Crane’s defeat had anything to do with the Alan Keyes race. I had never really heard anyone suggest it did.

    Crane had his own problems politically.

    Also, it should of course be pointed out that there was a primary winner in Illinois for the Senate seat named Jack Ryan and he was forced out of the race after Republicans turned on him, (quite a difference from what they were willing to overlook in 2016) and Keyes was selected as a replacement candidate, basically because he would be more free to criticize Obama because he was black.

  188. Wes says:

    No argument here, Chicon, but Keyes sealed Crane’s doom—much as Corey Stewart is currently sealing Barbara Comstock’s.

  189. jason says:

    This is another of Amoral Scumbag’s endless stream of idiotic predictions like the 2012 “brokered convention to anoint Jeb Bush the nominee”, “Jeb Bush to clear the field in 2016”, the “coup against Trump during the primaries” and “coup against Trump at the convention”, etc. Same drivel.

    Haley already declared she supports Trump in 2020 and Trump is not going to replace Pence on the ticket to “put in a woman”.

  190. CG says:

    Crane probably would have lost regardless (and to think I was almost working for him) if Keyes was not in the state.

    Crane’s conservative legacy is unassailable.

  191. Wes says:

    Michael Barone would disagree, Corey. He has said Keyes’ lopsided loss in IL-8 contributed to Crane’s loss. Admittedly Crane himself was little help in that regard as he made a series of blunders after his 2002 re-election.

  192. Chicon says:

    Wes, I don’t believe the Texas Senate race was ever anywhere near in doubt. Could he win by more if his Punch-Me Face were removed? Or if he didn’t come off as a condescending putz? Probably, but we’ll never find out. Of course, he might be President if that were the case.

  193. NYCmike says:

    The claims about Republicans having to spend $$ to support Cruz…..where is your evidence of that?

    If you could show me there are sums being spent by the NRSC in support of Cruz that wasn’t spent on other candidates like Cornyn, then your statements would make more sense.

    Without that evidence, you sound like a Democrat that doesn’t like Kavanaugh……just because!

  194. CG says:

    I can very much envision Jared and Ivanka telling DJT that he should put Haley on the ticket and how “tremendous he would do with women.”

    At this point in time, the Evangelicals are considered captive. Steve Bannon isn’t there anymore to argue against Jared and Ivanka.

    We will see what happens.

    I think it would be the better move politically to run with Haley, but I also want Trump to resign immediately and let Pence take over. (Not a fan of any apologist in this Administration as you all know)

  195. NYCmike says:

    Cruz knows what he looks and sounds like……yet he has won statewide races already, and is on his way to another victory.

    I know I was not worried about him, and I would miss him as Senator a lot more than you would! I can’t help that you were Robbie-like in thinking he was in serious trouble.

  196. Diamond Jim says:

    CC

  197. NYCmike says:

    DDDD JJJJJJJJJJJJ!

  198. NYCmike says:

    “I can very much envision Jared and Ivanka”

    -Looks like someone needs Tinder.

  199. CG says:

    Crane was living on borrowed time politically for a decade. He was lucky to survive the 1994 GOP primary. I have tremendous respect for what he accomplished, and meeting him as a teenager was a tremendous highlight for me, but he had a serious drinking problem during his latter years in Congress (for which he sought treatment) and had virtually no interaction at all with voters in his later years serving.

  200. NYCmike says:

    “and meeting him as a teenager was a tremendous highlight for me”

    -Or maybe a keg party?

  201. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 10, 2018 at 5:12 pm
    This is another of Amoral Scumbag’s endless stream of idiotic predictions like the 2012 “brokered convention to anoint Jeb Bush the nominee”, “Jeb Bush to clear the field in 2016”, the “coup against Trump during the primaries” and “coup against Trump at the convention”, etc. Same drivel.
    Haley already declared she supports Trump in 2020 and Trump is not going to replace Pence on the ticket to “put in a woman”.

    – Tell me, dipsh!t. Did I say Trump WILL replace Pence with Haley, or did I raise it as a hypothetical? Honestly, I’m not sure you’re smart enough to answer this simple question anymore. You’ve become such a slack jawed idiot in the age of Trump. Now, go back to stroking yourself while looking at pictures of Rubio.

  202. CG says:

    I shook hands with Phil Crane before I attended my first keg party. Only one was captured on video.

  203. CG says:

    To clarify, they weren’t on the same day.

  204. Chicon says:

    Incorrect, Mike. It was a foam party.

  205. Wes says:

    By the way, Mikey, saying Cruz would lose and pointing out Republicans had to shore him up are two different things.

    It was well known for months Cruz was having his hands full with Beto before the recent spate of polls.

    You must have been asleep during that time.

  206. CG says:

    The year Crane lost, despite Alan Keyes, GWB won the district by 12 points, and it was his strongest in the state.

  207. CG says:

    I hope Vito survives Michael ok.

    The last time they were this close was Godfather Part 1.

  208. CG says:

    I spent a good deal of time today on another blog telling leftists that Trump probably was not intending to be anti-Semitic by mispronouncing Diane Feinstein’s name as “Fein-steen” last night and that they should choose their battles more wisely.

    It’s very possible that Trump just doesn’t know or remember how she pronounces her name. He’s the same guy who has referred to his wife online as “Melanie”

    Furthermore, if he was trying to do a dog-whistle, he did it wrong. “Steen” is considered the more Americanized version of “Stine”, so if anything he was making her name sound *less* Jewish.

    Pat Buchanan would have done the dog whistle the right way and focused on the “Stine.” This has come up in the past with some people being accused of changing the pronunciation of Carl Bernstein’s last name in the opposite direction to try to make emphasis of his background, so if that is the case, it makes no sense that Trump would intentionally do it the other way around for Feinstein.

  209. lisab says:

    I can very much envision Jared and Ivanka telling DJT that he should put Haley on the ticket and how “tremendous he would do with women.”
    ————————————-

    ok then, so are you and robbie officially predicting that trump will make haley his vp candidate?

  210. CG says:

    No official prediction, just a possibility.

    I think it’s more likely Trump is not even running in the 2020 general election.

  211. Blobbie says:

    No Lisa

    This is in the same category as I think the Democrats COULD win every congressional seat this year.

  212. lisab says:

    No official prediction, just a possibility.
    ————————-

    and cutler could become a hall of fame quarterback too … that is also a possibility

  213. Mr.Vito says:

    Well lots of warnings… luckily no touchdowns at the house.

    Hopefully we are done getting the feeder bands…

  214. Mr.Vito says:

    Pamama City must be a mess.

  215. CG says:

    Cutler is retired now, so he won’t be in the HOF most likely, but he is a big reality star now on his wife’s show. I haven’t seen it but the reviews are that he is much more interesting than she is.

    There is a chance Cutler could attend a Trump rally perhaps in the future.

    Hopefully, all his Bears passing records will be broken by Mitch Trubisky in short order.

  216. CG says:

    Hopefully, Michael weakens and gets renamed Fredo.

  217. Mr.Vito says:

    Susan Rice’s son was attacked at a Pro-Kavanaugh rally!

    Those evil Republicans!

    What? Oh. He is President of the college Republicans at Stanford, and was attacked by a leftist.

    Move along!

  218. NYCmike says:

    Good one, “CG”.

    “I can do things, Im smart!”

  219. NYCmike says:

    Wes, so ZERO evidence that the Republican Party is having to send $$ to Cruz?

  220. lisab says:

    cutler is retired now, so he won’t be in the HOF most likely
    ——————————-

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGdhc9k07Ms

  221. CG says:

    227. Oh, I wasn’t even thinking about you with the Hurricane.

    I don’t think one has ever been named after me. I just get disastrous Virginia Senate candidates.

  222. lisab says:

    well in fairness, trump is potentially going to texas for a cruz rally

    which could be better spent in other places

    he should not need to rally for cruz

  223. Wes says:

    Yes, Mikey. Zero proof:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/nrsc-weighs-sending-more-resources-to-help-ted-cruz.html

    Next goal post:

    Mikey-Well, that doesn’t say the RNC was sending money to help Cruz win.

  224. Mr.Vito says:

    It technically doesn’t say they are sending anything.

    An anonymous source said they were reevaluating, and another anonymous official denied it.

  225. Mr.Vito says:

    Since Texas isn’t even included in the September Roundup for the NRSC and they haven’t made a press release for Cruz since May, I have my doubts.

  226. Tina says:

    I love anonymous sources.

    Jebot

  227. Mr.Vito says:

    More good news for GOP in midterms?

    ………….

    The Social Security Administration will tell retirees on Thursday how much of a bump to expect in their checks next year, and some experts project it could be the biggest in years.

    The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior advocacy organization, forecasts benefits will jump by 2.8 percent in 2019 – which would be the largest increase in seven years. That is slightly down from the group’s previous forecast of 3 percent, but would still boost the average beneficiary’s check by $39 per month – and raise the current maximum benefit collected by someone who retires at full retirement age by about $78 per month.

  228. Chicon says:

    233 – Wes, is it possible the RNC thought about it, and decided it wasn’t necessary? Or that their concern was misplaced? I’m guessing that even the RNC errs on occasion.

  229. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe Trump will run in 2020 as a Democrat? He loves to make a splash. He could make history again. He could take credit for the economy and promise to go back to his liberal days. Go big or go home.

  230. Tina says:

    I love my Sosh Security,

    Greater cola = Greater Limoncello

  231. Chicon says:

    Bitter, Trump could present you with the cure for your diabetes, and you’d still hate him….

  232. ssq says:

    Pamama City must be a mess.”

    That must be one big hurricane if it extends all the way down to Panama.

    I wonder if it will hit California too.

  233. Mr.Vito says:

    Kyle Dropp
    ?Verified account @kyledropp

    Four vulnerable Senate Democrats had at least a 7 point drop in net approval over the last quarter. None of them have approval ratings higher than Trump in their state:

    https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-10-10/

    …………………

    Menendez, McCaskill, Nelson, and Donnelly

  234. John says:

    Again, did I just hear that Andrew McCarthy saw that Sinema (Arizona) held fundraisers with known terrorists?

  235. NYCmike says:

    “So far throughout the 2018 congressional midterm election cycle, the NRSC has raised $83 million and spent $68 million, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Of the millions they’ve spent against Democratic Senate incumbents, they have yet to target O’Rourke.”

    -No goalposts need to be moved. I asked for evidence. You gave me a link……which said they were thinking about it.

    Are you one of Blaisey-Fords Beach Girls?

  236. Mr.Vito says:

    Mexico Beach, FL in bad shape. Video.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1050115372869931010

  237. mnw says:

    244 John

    I posted that this morning. No one seems very upset about her radical associations, as far as I can see. FOX had a major story up this morning.

  238. Bitterlaw says:

    Bitter, Trump could present you with the cure for your diabetes, and you’d still hate him….

    You are correct. What is your point? I got 2 SCOTUS picks and more Federal judges out of him. Why do I have to stop hating him? He is scum but useful scum so it works for me.

    I might also choose not to take the cure. Why owe him anything?

  239. Bitterlaw says:

    Cutler is retired now

    How can you tell?

    Zing!

  240. EML says:

    Go to google maps, turn on traffic, and look at I-10 around Tallahassee.

  241. Tina says:

    It is not beach girls.

    It is beach people.

    The beach people are not related to the Sand people.

    But you know, she is credible. Just because one says so.

  242. jason says:

    “He could take credit for the economy and promise to go back to his liberal days.”

    Shhhhh… that is a big secret among the Trumpbots.

    They get nervous when you remind them he funded Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid for decades.

    You know, those decades when Romney and McCain and all the other so called RINOS were busy being actual
    conservatives.

  243. mnw says:

    All the trolls here who spent the day wishcasting about Trump not running again, or replacing Pence, had good trolll-y fun, I guess. Harmless as whistling or self-abuse.

    Trump already talks at EVERY rally (at least the ones that I’ve seen) about how he’ll need to “change MAGA to KAGA in 2020”– sure sounds like he didn’t get the troll memo.

  244. jason says:

    I asked for evidence. You gave me a link”

    LOL

  245. Bitterlaw says:

    The beach people are not related to the Sand people.

    These Sand People?

    https://www.geeksofdoom.com/GoD/img/2014/04/sand-people-easily-startled.jpg

  246. jason says:

    ll the trolls here who spent the day wishcasting about Trump not running again, or replacing Pence, had good trolll-y fun, I guess. Harmless as whistling or self-abuse.”

    Amoral Scumbag is hoping a brokered convention will pick Jeb!.

  247. jason says:

    Did I say Trump WILL replace Pence with Haley, or did I raise it as a hypothetical?”

    Amoral Scumbag is extremely talented.

    He can raise something as a hypothetical without saying it.

  248. EML says:

    NYT TX poll passes 650 responses Cruz +10
    TN coming up on 450. Blackburn +17
    NV in some weird pause moment. Heller +1.
    Let’s stop talking about safe Republican seats and move on to MO, IN, FL, and beyond.

  249. mnw says:

    I sure wouldn’t characterize Heller as safe. Maybe Tarkanian’s coattails will help him, though. (just a JOKE)

  250. jason says:

    I think Amoral Scumbag is being paid by the DNC to troll here, and is also being paid by the Russians at the same time.

    I know, there is as much evidence of this as there is that Trump will replace Pence on the ticket, it’s a hypothetical.

  251. Phil says:

    No, Jason. We cannot move on from Texas. Beto is a superstar. I’ve seen him on Kimmel and Colbert. He’s a juggernaut. The NYT said so – the next John Kennedy.

  252. Chicon says:

    260 – it could be that he also attends foam parties. Who knows?

  253. mnw says:

    Trump unloaded on Sen. Bob Casey tonight in PA. I realize Trump owes Barletta, but that is one really dead parrot.

    I suppose it sends a message out that “I don’t forget my friends,” perhaps.

    If I were Trump, I’d fly straight from the rally to the FL panhandle, for a first-hand look. I agree with the poster who said that going forward with the PA rally under these circumstances is dicey.

  254. Mr.Vito says:

    No one should be flying out here right now.

  255. lisab says:

    Cutler is retired now
    How can you tell?
    ————-

    the bears are in first place

  256. Tina says:

    He said he is going very soon, probably by Friday.

    Agree a bit dicey,

  257. Mr.Vito says:

    Blackburn up 19.

    Throw in the towel already.

  258. NYCmike says:

    Blackburn – Another race the same people were eeyoring earlier in the year.

  259. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC supporting a Senate candidate who could win?

    COD hardest hit.

  260. Phil says:

    Wait a minute, guys. As far as Tennessee goes we still haven’t seen the full effect of the Taylor Swift endorsement. This will be huge with those voters in 8th grade homerooms all over the state. It could be a real game Changer!

  261. Tina says:

    Phil, we have seen her 29 percent ratings cut.

  262. NYCmike says:

    https://hotair.com/archives/2018/10/10/hot-scoop-hollywood-reporter-stephen-miller-man-eight-years-old/

    -This is very interesting.

    The laws/rules are there to protect ALL citizens. The left/liberal democrats/media may start to think twice about going back into teenage, and now pre-pubescent, years.

  263. Cash Cow TM says:

    Mr. Vito,

    I am pulling for you down there fighting the hurricane.

    Wishing you the best in a bad situation, sock ol pal.

  264. Cash Cow TM says:

    The old guy just said:

    “Don’t know if I would pull the lever for a candidate just because Taylor Swift said to do so.

    But Taylor Swift could pull my lever.
    (if I was on the ballot, I mean.)”

  265. Cash Cow TM says:

    In Wv, a respected 90 year old sitting member of the state legislature has just passed away.

    Walt served with him.

    So Gov. Justice will appoint yet ANOTHER member to the WV House of Delegates. I think this will be like his 8th or 9th appointment due to vacancy in the last 2 years. Nearing 10% of the House…

  266. Mr.Vito says:

    “Wishing you the best in a bad situation, sock ol pal.”

    Thanks. But I got it easy. Just happened to get some tornadoes in the area from the outer bands in north central fl.

  267. NYCmike says:

    Yikes, first time a hurricane gets named after me, and it really packed a wallop.

    Prayers out to the people down in Florida, I’ll start looking into what can be sent down, between money and supplies.

  268. JeffP says:

    James Okeefe strikes again…LOL…

    NEW: Bredesen’s Senate campaign staff says he is lying about Kavanaugh vote. “Between you and me once Phil actually gets into the Senate, he’ll be a good Democrat.” #SecretsAndLies Full: youtu.be/m9bjb46FtG0

  269. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 10, 2018 at 7:31 pm
    All the trolls here who spent the day wishcasting about Trump not running again, or replacing Pence, had good trolll-y fun, I guess. Harmless as whistling or self-abuse.

    Trump already talks at EVERY rally (at least the ones that I’ve seen) about how he’ll need to “change MAGA to KAGA in 2020”– sure sounds like he didn’t get the troll memo.

    – The Trump populist troll who disappeared for years and thinks we should pay attention to Newt Gingrich has some thoughts.

  270. Mr.Vito says:

    Heller is up 1 point as they just passed 500 responses.

    Bredesen is SURGING, and only down, well by 15.

  271. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 10, 2018 at 7:41 pm
    Did I say Trump WILL replace Pence with Haley, or did I raise it as a hypothetical?”

    Amoral Scumbag is extremely talented.

    He can raise something as a hypothetical without saying it.

    – The fraud who hated Trump every day of the campaign, refused to vote for Trump, and left the party over Trump can’t handle reading idle speculation about Trump. Sad.

    Go back to staring at your Rubio poster.

  272. Mr.Vito says:

    Actually watched a tornado forming from my house.

    It was mile away, and I caught it through the trees… it is not a good picture though. Got the fat end after watching the funnel shape pass.

  273. BayernFan says:

    I think Haley wants to take a break like she said. Prolly wants to make some serious money. As for VP I will be surprised were Pence to be replaced, unless he has a better gig… say SOS or SOD or something like that. But Pence is ambitious and wants to be President. I have always assumed that 2024 will see a Pence-Haley ticket.

  274. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 10, 2018 at 7:47 pm
    I think Amoral Scumbag is being paid by the DNC to troll here, and is also being paid by the Russians at the same time.

    I know, there is as much evidence of this as there is that Trump will replace Pence on the ticket, it’s a hypothetical.

    – I think Jason fraud, the worthless hack who hated Trump every day of the campaign, refused to vote for Trump, and left the party over Trump, is a snowflake who can’t handle idle speculation in an internet forum. On that there is years of evidence to show Jason fraud is, in fact, a fraud who deflects from the fact he’s fraud by attacking others. Nice try, fraud. Stick to worshiping Rubio.

  275. Robbie says:

    BayernFan says:
    October 10, 2018 at 9:57 pm
    I think Haley wants to take a break like she said. Prolly wants to make some serious money. As for VP I will be surprised were Pence to be replaced, unless he has a better gig… say SOS or SOD or something like that. But Pence is ambitious and wants to be President. I have always assumed that 2024 will see a Pence-Haley ticket.

    – I don’t think Haley wants to play second fiddle to Pence in 2024, but I could easily envision a Pence/Haley ticket in 2020 should Trump surprise everyone and not run. However, I fully expect Trump to run. Who the VP is might, and I stress might, be open for debate.

    That said, I go back to my initial thought. I have no doubt Haley wants some time off to make some money. I also believe she wants to be president. If she wants to be president and 2024 is her goal, how does she keep her name relevant for SIX years?

    Obviously, if Trump wins re-election, she could have another administration job. But it’s hard to win a third term. Also, what if Trump loses n 2020? Without a high profile political office, it will be hard for Haley to keep her profile high. Some may say a cable news job might work, but did that help Santorum or Newt in 2016?

  276. Phil says:

    Bredesen and his staff are too stupid to keep the mask on through the election.

  277. Robbie says:

    289

    Just to add a bit more to my comments in 289. Consider Rubio in 2016. When the process began, he said it was the presidency and nothing else. He wasn’t going to run for his Senate seat of his presidential bid failed. As we saw though, Rubio didn’t become the nominee and he ended up running for Senate again. That was a good thing because the other candidates would have lost to Patrick Murphy.

    Why did Rubio run for Senate again? In my view it’s simple. Rubio still has presidential ambitions and came to the realization he needed a high profile political office to stay relevant. Honestly, if Rubio wasn’t a Senator today, would he even be remotely relevant? No. He’d be like Jeb. Effectively, old news. I suspect Rubio would have run for governor this year had he not been in the Senate, but the point remains. To be in the presidential discussion, a person needs to be relevant and that means holding a high elected office.

  278. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 10, 2018 at 10:17 pm
    Bredesen and his staff are too stupid to keep the mask on through the election.

    – His race reminds me of Bob Kerrey in 2012. Made sense on paper, but the times have changed.

  279. mnw says:

    Trump needs Pence. Religious conservatives trust Pence. But they trust Trump TOO, right? Right?

    Uh… well…you don’t see many dead squirrels.

  280. Phil says:

    Yep, but it’s harder now to pull off the mask strategy these days but it was Bredesen’s Only shot. Kind of surprised Beto didn’t try it. He has actually run as the California like lefty. Well, at least he’s honest. I can say that for Beto.

  281. NYCmike says:

    “To be in the presidential discussion, a person needs to be relevant and that means holding a high elected office.”

    -President Trump, and 2020 potential challenger Michael Bloomberg, just guffawed at Robbie.

  282. John says:

    Rubio?
    The guy just doesn’t ‘sell’ outside of Miami. He was embarrassed at the CNN/Parkland shooting gathering. He just isn’t ‘primetime’.
    And I was a Rubio follower.

  283. NYCmike says:

    John,

    Robbie will bring up certain people, like Rubio, Gingrich, Mourdock, SuperSpermGuy, etc at random times for no apparent reason.

    Pogo Loco is missing someone.

  284. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 10, 2018 at 10:39 pm
    “To be in the presidential discussion, a person needs to be relevant and that means holding a high elected office.”

    -President Trump, and 2020 potential challenger Michael Bloomberg, just guffawed at Robbie.

    – And what did Trump have that no one else had? A nationally televised reality TV show that last a decade.

    Unless Nikki Haley becomes a TV star over the next six years, the normal rules of politics apply to her. Out of sight, out of mind.

    As for Bllomberg, do you really think he’s going to a player in 2020? I don’t. He’s got money. So did Jeb. What else does he have?

  285. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 10, 2018 at 10:26 pm
    Yep, but it’s harder now to pull off the mask strategy these days but it was Bredesen’s Only shot. Kind of surprised Beto didn’t try it. He has actually run as the California like lefty. Well, at least he’s honest. I can say that for Beto.

    – That assumes Beto was ever really running to win and not just to raise his profile exponentially among Democrat activists and fundraisers.

  286. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 10, 2018 at 10:42 pm
    John,

    Robbie will bring up certain people, like Rubio, Gingrich, Mourdock, SuperSpermGuy, etc at random times for no apparent reason.

    Pogo Loco is missing someone.

    – Poor, NYCmike. If the conversation doesn’t deal with his wheelhouse, Tea Party idiot candidates who lose unlosable races, he always seems to miss the point.

  287. NYCmike says:

    “He’s got money. So did Jeb. What else does he have?”

    -Bloomberg has his OWN money, not a bunch of donors.

    AND, Bloomberg has a party that may want him, as opposed to JEB!2016, who NOT EVEN HIS MOTHER wanted him to run.

  288. Tina says:

    Rubio always see,s to insert boot into his mouth.

    He has gotten too gop-e and is not the candidate from 2010.

  289. Bitterlaw says:

    Thankfully, the evil Establishment gave us the votes to confirm Kavanaugh.

  290. mnw says:

    “Kavanaugh Backs Trump Administration On Jailing, Deporting Illegal Immigrants For Crimes Committed Decades Earlier”

    Oh! Looks like Kav went ex div immediately.

  291. GF says:

    Beto is probably bored in the House and hoping for some big cash gig somewhere; now that he’s served six years, his Congressional pension is vested, no? Why stick around?

  292. GF says:

    Oh! Looks like Kav went ex div immediately.

    Good! Now he can start sticking it to the people who tried to destroy him.

  293. mnw says:

    Beto married money. His net worth is twice that of Cruz.

  294. mnw says:

    VDH on TuCa tonight.

  295. Mr.Vito says:

    Mike Kelly reminds me of Budd Dwyer.

  296. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like Siena closed the Nevada poll.

    Heller 47
    Rosen 45

  297. mnw says:

    Vito 311

    Good to know. Thx. I guess they were afraid to add their secret sauce this time.

  298. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 10, 2018 at 8:45 pm
    NYC supporting a Senate candidate who could win?

    COD hardest hit.

    To be fair, Bitter, Mikey’s probably still hoping Blackburn will nuke herself just as Dick the Misogynist Bastard Mourdock did.

  299. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes – COD will always be my favorite Deadender. She had to deny being a witch. She may be the only publisher c figure since the Salem Trials to do that.

  300. Wes says:

    Mourdock is mine, Bitter. He literally said he believes God intends women to become pregnant by rape. What kind of idiot says something that utterly stupid—especially after Akon had already nuked his own candidacy with similar comments?

  301. Bitterlaw says:

    Public figure.

  302. Bitterlaw says:

    I see your point but witchcraft is unique.

  303. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    We hardly knew you, Beto, but adios nonetheless!
    A new Quinnipiac Poll of TX shows Abbott(R) for Governor +20 and Cruz(R) for the Senate at +9, which is identical to the NYT/ Siena Poll.

    https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

  304. don says:

    Siap..big Kavanaugh effect in Washington?

  305. Messy says:

    3. It’s the middle of October and the polling companies are beginning on working to burnish their reputations more than partisan showmanship.

    Also, following is silly, so I thought I’d share: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/black-history-month_uk_5bbf1493e4b054d7ddefc4da?ini&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

  306. Tina says:

    Richard Grenell is being touted as the next un ambassador.

    He currently is the ambassador to Germany and has put Mullah Murkel in line,

    He would be an upgrade over Dina Powell or Mullah Corker.

  307. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/oct/10/chuck-grassley-senate-republicans-aim-confirm-more/

    It appears that the GOP will continue to keep its boot on the neck of the Democrats vis-a-vis judicial confirmations. YES!!!

  308. Todd McCain says:

    Trump and Scott need to own the recovery on this and manage it well.

  309. MichiganGuy says:

    With Ann Kirkpatrick ahead in CD2 polling, GOP pulls TV time in Tucson. ” A day after Republican congressional candidate Lea Marquez Peterson debated Ann Kirkpatrick, her front-running Democratic opponent, the GOP yanked its reservations for TV ads in this competitive district.

    Marquez Peterson stumbled at times in her public debating debut, drawing laughs from some in the audience with a vague answer avoiding the question of whether she believes in climate change.

    .
    https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/1595395002?__twitter_impression=true
    .
    I guess we lost McSally’s congressional seat.

  310. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, AZ 2 is gone. But Ill take the swap if we win the senate seat.

  311. MichiganGuy says:

    “The list of characters Scaramucci trashes anew includes current chief of staff John Kelly, former chief of staff Reince Priebus and former chief strategist Steve Bannon.”

    “Kelly is ‘ineffective’ and suffers from ‘personal insecurity,’ Scaramucci writes; Priebus is a rat; and Bannon is a hypocrite and a weirdo.”
    .
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/10/anthony-scaramucci-steve-bannon-donald-trump-blue-collar-president

  312. DW says:

    The two biggest polls of the last 24 hours are…

    1) The Dino Rossi (WA_08) Elway poll showing him up ten points.

    2) The Quinnipiac poll showing Ted Cruz-ing in Texas.

    These are a punch to the gut of Dems and their cheerleading forecasters and the media.

    These pollsters are their friends, and WA_08 is the exact profile of the sort of seat Ds need to flip if they want any sort of wave, and in Texas their darling candidate appears going down in flames.

  313. Todd McCain says:

    Hard to believe that MT SEN hasn’t drifted our way as well. Hopefully the NRSC poll in WV is also correct. Perhaps Manchin’s DEM base is just fleeing him.

  314. DW says:

    Also watching the pathetic 538 formula for house forecasting. Silver designed it with a logic that cannot account for the data coming in.

    CNN says generic ballot is D+13.

    Elway says WA_08 is R+10.

    Trying to correlate these is not possible unless you are willing to think outside the box. 538 cannot do that, so their data shows Rossi leading 50.6 to 49.4.

    What he doesn’t seem to understand is the same phenomenon we saw in 2016, and what I have been preaching here all year. Dems are running up the score in deep blue urban areas they are winning anyway. The generic ballot numbers reflect this, and you cannot use those numbers to accurately assess suburban seats.

  315. Barrett says:

    Howdy everyone. It’s been quite some time since I posted here. Hope all is well!

    Just a quick catchup. I do think the Dems will win the House, but it wont be the victory they had back in 2006. I think the Republicans will actually expand their lead in the Senate.

    As a Libertarian, I’ve found from experience that Republicans are more welcoming to us. I’m helping a Libertarian campaign for congress, but I’m also helping two Local Republicans. I think at this point, Libertarians exist as a faction with the Republican party, rather than as an individual party.

  316. DW says:

    Barrett, my hope is that the Kavanaugh confirmation circus led by Democrats who made fools of themselves would push Libertarians into the direction of the GOP, given the huge threat Democrats have shown themselves to be in the area of privacy–supposedly a key platform of Libertarians.

    Do you have any hunch for how Libertarians are responding to the Kavanaugh hearings?

  317. Barrett says:

    Having said that, I now consider myself a member of the Republican Party. After 13 years, I switched my registration to R. I’m hoping we can hold back the socialist tide.

  318. Todd McCain says:

    In the latest RCP; Dems lead 205-199; this is the closest GOP has been for the House.

    I really think the House is a coin flip.

  319. Barrett says:

    DW – the hearing, as Lindsey Graham put it, was a sham.

    We’re a nation of laws, and those laws are held up by the concept of “Innocent until proven guilty.”

    By trying to weaponize the #MeToo movement, Democrats have turned that into “Guilty until proven innocent”.

    Once someone claims sexual assault, the damage can NEVER be undone. To answer your question, most of the Libertarians I know are furious with this. It’s enough to get them to come back to the Republican side. It was enough for me.

  320. dblaikie says:

    What the talking heads, the toupees, and the whole media don’t want to come to grips with is that all their polls assumed that the Democratic base was going to be far more energized than the GOP base. What the Kavanaugh hearings did in showing the world what a Democratic Legislature would look like was to energize the GOP base into a frenzy.

    THAT LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF HHR TURNS THIS MIDTERM ELECTION ON ITS HEAD.

    We see it in the Senate races and we are starting to see it in the House races. The question is how long the toupees and the whole media crowd are going to be able to hide it.

    Oh one more thought, the generic ballot should also speak to the Senate races. If so, just the Senate races alone show that the CNN generic poll is garbage.

  321. Blobbie says:

    Given how well Trump is doing and how weak the democratic candidates are, I think Trump may win all the states he won in 2016 and NM, CO, NH, ME and MN in 2020. Also OR could be an election day surprise

  322. Phil says:

    DW is correct about 538. Silver can’t contain his bias. They have Dems picking up 35 seats. I see it as odds are the House flips but narrowly – Dem pickup of 26 or 27 seats. Not nearly the wipeout predicted (and hoped for) by the MSM.

  323. Blobbie says:

    I also think that since Bill and Hillary are going on a tour, Hillary might be the Democratic nominee in 2020. I know I would vote for her.

  324. Barrett says:

    Blobbie – If the Dems run someone like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren – look for some big surprises for the Republicans

  325. Redmen4ever says:

    DW: Seeming in support of your point, SSRS – which does CNN’s polling nowadays – produced a D+4 number in a recent poll of 69 competitive CDs.

    Let’s say one-fifth of the districts are competitive, and are D+4, two-fifths are Republican and are R+2, what would the two-fifths of Democrat districts have to be, to make the nationwide number D+13?

    It would be D+32.

    Democrats tend to concentrate in urban districts, and many of these are overwhelmingly Democrat. But, D+32 seems out there.

    So, I don’t think polarization is the whole answer. I think polarization explains D+8 and Republicans still having a decent chance of retaining a majority.

    The IVR and internet-panel based polls (Ipsos/Rueters excepted) deliver mid single digit D advantages; and, the “high quality” media and university polls (IBD and Fox excepted) deliver mid double digit. The differences are both too large and too persistent to be explained by sampling error.

  326. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #338
    Phil
    If you were a betting man, which federal House seats, if any, in Texas will change hands in November?

    I say zero.

  327. Blobbie says:

    If the Dems run someone like Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren – look for some big surprises for the Republicans
    —————————

    I think that if the Democratic nominee is Elizabeth Warren, she could win the Native American vote

  328. Blobbie says:

    I also think that no matter who the Democratic nominee is, VA will probably be in play.

  329. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Wes and So Hope:
    In No. Carolina where the three of us reside, I believe there is a good chance that the GOP will not lose any federal House seats. NC-9 is 50/50 and my guess is that the GOP prevails in CD-2(Holding) and CD-13(Budd) by around 5% each.

    What say you?

  330. Blobbie says:

    After Kavanaugh’s nomination fight I think the Democrats are so demoralized that the House might not flip.

  331. Wes says:

    Sheep, I never expected NC-2 or NC-13 to flip. NC-9 has been a concern, but as I’ve reported from first-hand observation here Harris is surging. NC-9 May well be the House bellwether race:

    If Republicans hold it, it could be a sign the House isn’t flipping.

    It certainly has been one that’s trended back toward the GOP along with several other competitive seats recently.

  332. SoHope says:

    I want to thank we hold all seats here in NC. I am just outside of in NC-9…. I would guess 50-50 chance we keep it depending on the news cycle on Election Day. I believe we keep the other two.

  333. mnw says:

    RAS today (Th.):

    49/50 (Trump JA)

    37/42 (strongly approve/strongly disappv)

  334. SoHope says:

    Dems are really emphasizing and running ads of Harris sermonizing about wives submitting to their husband and they are emphasizing the democrat challenger veteran status (Harris and his former Marine opponent)

  335. dblaikie says:

    Folks lets take a hard look at this election at least today. First of all the Senate is gone for the Dems. Tennessee is a lock. Both Nevada and Arizona are leaning GOP. With those off the map any hope of a Democratic pick-up are gone. Now add to that South Dakota and Missouri. That makes GOP plus 2. In my view Indiana will most likely flip. Both Florida and Montana could easily flip. West Virginia and finally New Jersey has a chance to flip. In the Senate, unless something unforeseen happens, we have a red wave of plus 2 to plus 5 seats.

    Now as far as the House goes. Things are starting to change big time. Don’t be swayed by the media nonsense. I know that well respected folks here (that means I respect them too) think I am crazy, but sometimes crazy is right, I say in the house GOP pick-up of 4 or 5 seats. I am confident in thinking by the end of the election my prediction will closer than the folks predicting 24 or 25 plus dem. seats.

  336. MichiganGuy says:

    The Social Security Administration will tell retirees on Thursday how much of a bump to expect in their checks next year, and some experts project it could be the biggest in years.
    .
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/social-security-checks-to-rise-a-look-at-past-adjustments
    ———————————————————————————————————————
    We just won Florida! Hello Governor DeSantis. Hello Senator Scott.

  337. Todd McCain says:

    I appreciate the optimism, but GOP is def not gaining seats in the House this cycle. Senate could be a 3-5 seat gain.

  338. mnw says:

    MG 352

    Maximum SSA increase (for those who waited until age 70) will be appx $75/month. Median increase about $40-$45/mo.

    I doubt many votes will switch because of this windfall.

  339. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, I was joking.

  340. mnw says:

    CLF pouring another $1 mill into Mia Love’s race in UT, per The Wise Men. What an expensive distraction she has proven herself to be.

    Sabato has finally moved ND from tossup to Lean R. They HATE to pull the plug on DEM incumbents.

  341. mnw says:

    MG 355

    Sorry. I didn’t catch it.

  342. Todd McCain says:

    Mia Love has just never been able to lock down her seat since she has been there. Romney winning huge though should help.

  343. Phil says:

    Sheeple, there are three Texas congressional seats Democrats are going after and dumping a lot of money into. Hurd in west Texas 23 is going to hang on just fine. I think Dems have even scaled down their advertising there. I think Sessions hangs on narrowly in the Dallas suburbs Tx 32. The one I am worried about the most is Tx 7 with Culberson in the Houston suburbs. Hillary won that district by about five points and Dems are pumping about two million bucks in there with non stop attack ads and portraying Fletcher as some sort of a reasonable moderate which she is not. I would say that one is the most vulnerable and I think chances of retention are no more than 50-50. Having Abbott blowing out his opponent at the top of the ticket is Culberson’s best advantage. Lots of down the ballot straight R voting due to the design of the Texas ballot. If Culberson hangs on he can thank Abbott’s coattails. Republicans will once again sweep all the statewide offices which has happened since 1994.

  344. dblaikie says:

    353 I know you think I am nuts. Well if I am, I will admit it on the day after the election. But, Todd, I don’t think I am. I remember all the folks here who said I was nuts in saying Trump was going to win months before the election.

    I like to be out on limbs. Sometimes I fall off. But there are quite a few times where my limb becomes, miraculously a trunk.

  345. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, hopefully though people will see how much President Trump and the Republicans are putting money back in their wallets from tax cuts, wages going up, social security checks going up. All this good news should help the Republicans sway undecided voters I would hope.

  346. DW says:

    Looking at the math, the very best the GOP could do is to hold their house losses to the Dems picking up a net of 10.

    Long gone: PA_05, PA_06, NJ_02, PA_17, AZ_02,
    Almost certainly gone: CA_49, NJ_11, PA_07 and VA_10
    Very likely gone: MN_02, MN_03, CO_06

    That’s 12 right there, and I know GOP stands to pick up a few, but I won’t entertain any ideas of GOP making gains until I see some explanation how they don’t lose most of the above.

  347. Blobbie says:

    DW,

    I never said the GOP WILL pick up seats. But I am hypothesizing that the GOP COULD pick up seats.

  348. DW says:

    So in summary, 538’s bad forecasting formula has put them in the place where they are saying Elway polling has an A+ rating, but have a GOP tilt of +9 in the WA_08 poll, because CNN says nationally Dems lead +13

  349. Todd McCain says:

    Agreed, the absolute best the GOP can do is a loss of 10 in the House.

  350. mnw says:

    Maybe nothing…

    McCaskill got recorded saying, “If we do our job in St. Louis County, I can give up a few votes in the Bootheel.”

    Hawley made an ad out of that & is running it… in the Bootheel.

    (The Bootheel is extreme southeast MO where Cape Girardeau is.)

  351. dblaikie says:

    DW you are one of those posters who I respect highly. But I will stick with my prediction. Do me a favor, because you are a great number cruncher, what would the political landscape look like if the Kavanaugh effect did this: move these races up one category towards the GOP. In other words seats that were lean dem. are now toss-ups and toss-up now lean GOP. What would that show? Because if events of the last two weeks mean a 4 or 5 point bounce that is what will happen.

  352. lisab says:

    I think it would take something huge for the gop to pick up seats

    like terror attacks by antifa or something similar

    it is just very unlikely, like a 1 in 50 or 1 in a 100 event.

    (because in 230 years we have had two or three such events: 9/11, pearl harbor, fort sumter — and maybe the alamo, the maine, the lusitania, british impressment of usa sailors. it would have to be something big.)

  353. DW says:

    367 – that’s a great question dblaikie, but hard to calculate. In Deeply blue urban cesspool districts like CA_12, where normally the Democrat (Pelosi) wins 85/15, the Kavanaugh effect will increase the Dem turnout, on top of the already increase due to hatred for Trump, and she might win 95/5 this time. But who cares? It doesn’t get them any more seats.

    In ruby red districts, the same inverse effect will be in play.

    But individual house seats are Tossup or Lean D/R for a variety of reasons including Candidate quality, candidate nursing a scandal, longtime incumbent whose party is opposite the direction the district is trending, seats that have been redistricted since last election, and so on.

    So the Kavanaugh effect will be different for each kind of district and to varying extents.

    I would say to look to WA_08. Dino Rossi is a great candidate, and always has been. But WA_08 is the sort of seat that Dems must flip if they want any sort of wave. And if he is up ten points there, I can guarantee you there are nervous Dems out there wondering what it means for NC_09, NY_22, CA_25, KS_03 and a host of other seats they thought they were pretty sure of flipping just three weeks ago.

  354. MichiganGuy says:

    Tucker Carlson’s new book topples Woodward from #1 on New York Times bestseller list.
    .
    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/410912-tucker-carlsons-new-book-topples-woodward-from-1-on-new-york-times-bestseller
    ——————————————————————————————————–
    Nice!

  355. mnw says:

    I believe Trump is trying to nationalize the midterm. His live interview with Shannon Bream on FOX yesterday suggests that to me.

  356. DW says:

    I said months ago the GOP should nationalize the midterms on the strength of economy, tax cuts, deregulation, jobs, and so on.

  357. lisab says:

    a new book by Howie Carr is coming out

    Kennedy Babylon 2

    i read Kennedy Babylon 1 and i was shocked and disgusted by the brothers. if you think trump is bad, you would be up in arms over jfk et al.

    they were like an evil version of charlie sheen in two and a half men, drunk womanizing murderers.

  358. Tina says:

    Morning Joe: Kavanaugh Hearings ‘Disaster for Democratic Party’
    On Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough says that Republicans got a “huge bump” from the Kavanaugh hearings, whereas the hearings were “a disaster for the Democratic party.”
    http://www.newsbusters.org

    Mika allows Scarfarce to make this statement?

  359. George says:

    Real Clear Politics has it as Dem 205 Rep 199 with the following as tossups. Can the GOP take at least 18 of these to hold the House?

    CA10 CA25 CA39
    CA45 CA48 FL26
    IA3 IL6 IL12
    KS2 KS3 KY6
    ME2 MI8 MN1
    MN8 NC9 NJ3
    NJ7 NJ11 NM2
    NY19 NY22 PA1
    PA7 TX7 TX32
    UT4 VA5 VA7
    WA8

  360. George says:

    Make that 19.

  361. Tina says:

    Michael Avenatti
    @MichaelAvenatti
    Follow
    .@BetoORourke deserves all of our support. He is fighting the good fight every day. He would make an exceptional senator for Texas. twitter.com/betoorourke/st…
    7:35 AM – 10 Oct 2018

    Porn lawyahnint events in txt senate race.

    Poor Beta. He was in the moe just two weeks ago. Now, he is trailing by nearly double digits.

  362. lisab says:

    how soon before

    a.) trump is blamed for the hurricane response?

    b.) the hurricane is blamed on global warming?

    c.) trump is blamed for global warming?

  363. Waingro says:

    Stick a fork in her.

    The Reagan Battalion
    ?Verified account @ReaganBattalion

    BREAKING: LEAKED VIDEO: in a 2011 speech in TX, Democratic Senate candidate @kyrstensinema mocks Arizonans as “Crazy” and calls Arizona the “crazy” state.

    https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/1050413496335298560

  364. SoHope says:

    Yeah she is done. There are at least 3 damning soundbites in that clip. That is an October Surprise.

  365. Phil says:

    Avenatti endorses Beto. Should help with voters………in California.

  366. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    There seems to be an impression that Mia Love must be a weak candidate because her race is so close in Republican Utah. The Utah 4th district has a voter registration of 50% Republican and 47% Democrat. It has often been represented by a Democrat. Trump only received 39% of the vote, with Clinton receiving 32% in 2016, McMullin and others received received the rest of the vote. Love is actually a good candidate; it has always been a competitive district — her predecessor was a Democrat.

  367. mnw says:

    MO SEN

    Not sure this is worth reporting, but… a brand new (supposedly) bipartisan pollster found Hawley +2. An online poll, & they don’t give the D/R/I sample.

    This poll SEEMS to have been motivated primarily to measure support for the 3 MO medical marijuana ballot initiatives. Lots of discussion about how these initiatives may help Claire.

    Link in RRH comments, if anybody cares (doubtful).

  368. SoHope says:

    1. Damn those people are crazy
    2. Is there something in the water
    3. No we steal it from Colorado
    4. Theyre called Republicans
    5. Things you can do to stop your state from becoming Arizona
    6. Arizona land of the 5 C’s Cattle, Copper, Citrus, Cotton, Climate…and I would add 6th C – Crazy

  369. Redmen4ever says:

    Shouldn’t we have a hearing as to whether Jack Kennedy should be removed from Arlington?

  370. Phil says:

    Even the MSM is no longer trying to push Texas and Tennessee as competitive. They seem to have even given up cheerleading those races.

  371. DW says:

    The new poll I would love to see, in light of the Kavanaugh proceedings is FL_27.

  372. Bitterlaw says:

    lisab – I am glad that you brought up impressment by the British navy. They probably think they could sneak up on us after a 203 year gap.

  373. Redmen4ever says:

    I know what you did 37 summers ago

    starring Jamie Lee Curtis and Matt Damon, co-starring Ben Affleck as wingman Mark Judge and Jennifer Lopez ad the bff who doesn’t remember

  374. DW says:

    Some clown on RRH saying the GOP is going to give up on Roskam in IL_06. The Dem internals had the same gap in the D direction as the R internal release. And Siena found it virtually a dead heat.

    And there has been no polling since Kavanaugh.

    So I don’t think that could possibly be true.

  375. mnw says:

    DW

    NYT sure loves it some GOP triage reports.

    Old: “blue wave”
    New Hotness: “GOP triage”

  376. DW says:

    No question as to who the NY Times is rooting for…their tag line on the Siena/NY Times poll of PA_01 about to begin:

    “Can a Republican survive a national wave of rebellion in the suburbs?”

    It remains to be seen which direction the suburbs go, but thanks for playing.

  377. Bitterlaw says:

    I will continue to hold out hope that Pearl Kim can pull off the upset in Pa-05. If I am wrong, no big deal. I have been wrong before – often.

  378. DW says:

    And I still don’t like the term ‘triage’ as it isn’t an accurate meaning of the term.

    Dictionary definition:

    triage
    [tree-ahzh]
    the process of sorting victims, as of a battle or disaster, to determine medical priority in order to increase the number of survivors.

    So a proper use of the term would be to say the result of the triage evaluation is that no money or effort will be made to save PA_05 or PA_06 because these are not going to make it, while the result of the triage evaluation of Scott Taylor in VA_02 is that he will get all kinds of help as we think we can save him.

    But to say “Barbara Comstock should be triaged” only means she should be evaluated to see whether or not an effort should be made to save her.

  379. DW says:

    But given the Quinnipiac and Siena poll of Texas, and the Siena poll of TN, along with the Elway poll of WA_08, it would not surprise me to see polling dry up in the next few weeks, and for the forecasters sitting under their toupees to not be interested in any ratings changes.

  380. Mr.Vito says:

    West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin tried to secure a personal “Governor’s Helicopter” during his time as the state’s governor, using funding from a prescription drug settlement that was intended to combat illegal drug use.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/manchin-wanted-to-use-drug-settlement-money-for-governors-helicopter-during-his-governorship-report

  381. Todd McCain says:

    Wow on the Sinema video.

  382. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m still shocked no one cares she told anarchists it was okay to bring their sidearms.

  383. Diamond Jim says:

    CD

  384. Mr.Vito says:

    siena will poll Comstock

    VA-10
    MN-08
    AZ-06
    PA-01

  385. Mr.Vito says:

    Marsha Blackburn dropped a point in the Tennessee poll from last night while polling was no longer being conducted.

  386. Bitterlaw says:

    Mr. Vito does not want anarchists bringing guns to a rally? When did he become an anti-2d Amendment gun grabber?

  387. DW says:

    siena will poll Comstock
    VA-10
    MN-08
    AZ-06
    PA-01

    MN_08 would be a redo, as their prior poll had the Republican up 1 point.

    AZ_06 is a waste of money–will show large GOP lead.

  388. Mr.Vito says:

    “When did he become an anti-2d Amendment gun grabber?”

    I have never really talked about guns here. I have repeatedly say I score much farther left on ideological tests than everyone else here.

    No, I don’t think anarchists should bring sidearms to a heated political rally, and especially think a “gun grabbing” liberal like Sinema ought to say the same.

  389. Mr.Vito says:

    Even moreso one that thinks her fellow Arizona citizens are “crazy”.

  390. NYCmike says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MY-VPcEZFEk

    Mr. Vito is too busy trying to grab his sock pair that keeps trying to escape than grabbing anyone’s guns…….ok, maybe he is trying to grab Brooke’s boobies…..

  391. NYCmike says:

    Rumor that Nikki Haley will ask Kanye to be her running mate in 2024.