Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 9% in TX, Heller Up by 2% in NV

This morning, Quinnipiac University released a new poll for the race in Texas that now shows Ted Cruz opening up a 9% lead over the media darling Beto O’Rourke.

US SENATE – TEXAS (Quinnipiac)
Ted Cruz (R-inc) 54%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

This poll was done October 3-9. It does seem like every poll of late for this race shows ted Cruz moving a little bit further ahead.Meanwhile in Nevada, the New York Times and Siena College are showing a new poll with Republican Dean Heller in the lead.

Dean Heller (R-inc) 47%
Jacky Rosen (D) 45%

This poll was done October 8-10 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 1:10 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (194)

194 Responses to “Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 9% in TX, Heller Up by 2% in NV”

  1. Todd McCain says:


  2. Redmen4ever says:

    Oooo-hooo-hooo, Jackie Blue
    Lives her life from inside of her room

  3. Wes says:

    In the late stages of the 2012 cycle, Republicans running for Senate made a series of errors that cost them seats:

    1) Todd Akin talked about fake rape.

    2) Dick Mourdock claimed God intended women to have rape-induced pregnancies.

    3) Rick Berg was not forceful in responding when Heidi Heitkamp accuses him of being a slum lord.

    There were others, but these were the most noteworthy missteps of the cycle to my mind.

    Now Dems are topping the 2012 GOP with a plethora of unforced errors that have all but erased any chance at Dems can recapture the Senate. Phil Bredesen, Kyrsten Sinema, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, and Heidi Heitkamp have all hurt themselves with foolish remarks.

    My, how times have changed.

  4. Todd McCain says:

    Yep, good post Wes.

  5. mnw says:

    I tried to find out how the Sinema “crazy” recording is being reported in AZ. It’s not.

  6. Todd McCain says:

    McSally needs to get that into an ad now.

  7. Victrc says:

    Lucky number 7

  8. Hugh says:

    So Claire has the lowest approval rating of any running senator and the race is still close. Makes no sense.

  9. Tina says:

    It is over for Beta. The porn lawyah will drop his numbers further.

    I think we keep Nevada.

  10. Todd McCain says:

    IN and MO are going the GOP way; you cannot be at 42-43% and win, only Dean Heller can do that since he’s done it before.

  11. Tina says:

    Net R registrations have increased since 2016

    Will be a close race.

    Heller has not distanced himself from trump, who stumped for him in late September.

  12. Wes says:

    Hugh, Claire has a high floor of support in MO despite her liberalism and unpopularity. Her lowest performance thus far in a statewide election was a 48-51 loss to Matt Blunt in 2004. At the same time she’s largely outspent Hawley and has a solid ground game.

    I’m not at all surprised at the closeness of the race. Hawley is actually in a good position with a narrow lead and most undecideds likely being on the Right rather than the Left.

    It’s certainly better than being a two-term Senator who last won 55-39’s being mired in the mid-40s against an opponent who never won office till two years ago.

  13. SoHope says:

    Hawley is on top of the bootheel snafu

  14. Wes says:

    Ouch! That’s going to leave a mark. McCaskill May be toast after that remark.

  15. Wes says:

    Of course Bitterlaw thinks McCaskill is invincible because she has fewer statewide victories under her belt than Mary Landrieu—whom Bill Cassidy ousted by a wide margin in 2014.

  16. mnw says:


    Very nice rapid-response youtube ad. Hopefully some real voters will see it on TV somewhere. It really is good.

    The most encouraging thing for Hawley was that stare senate district poll in the area around St. Joseph, just north of Kansas City. (Jesse James country, btw.)

  17. Todd McCain says:

    This Trump Kanye lunch is loony tunes.

  18. Tina says:

    Seems like our candidates have not made gaffes, but Beta, Claire, and that the Tn liar have.

  19. Tina says:

    Beta could also be sinking based on the debate performance, Dui gate.

    Cruz, despite being arrogant, is a great debater.

  20. Phil says:

    I live in Walker County, sixty miles north of Houston. A month ago I saw three or four Beto signs. Just in the last two weeks Cruz signs have sprung up everywhere. Counted over two dozen just in our neighborhood along – still the same three or four Beto signs and no more. Beto is going to get destroyed outside of Houston, Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, and El Paso. Will lose the suburbs around those cities by 15 points and get absolutely destroyed in the rest of the state.

  21. DW says:

    NHC needs to get rid of the dumb map projection they are using that makes the north country absurdly huge…

    …because when its a fast moving storm, the extended forecast over by the UK means you can barely see what is going on in the USA portion of the map.

  22. BayernFan says:

    Kanye Trump is huge, Todd. Don’t get tempted into dissing it. Kanye is a big big cultural icon in the AA community.

  23. BayernFan says:

    Kanye is the only guy standing up to TMZ. Everyone givng him chit calling him mentally ill.

    He’s not nuts he’s excited passionate.

    He has a family, kids, money, ideas.

    He is smart and sane compared to JayZ, TMZ and the rest of em.

    Kanye’s calling them out and they can’t stand it.

    and Kim has his back. Her doing her thing with Trump by herself was smart. She got more done than BLM. and that doesn’t go unnoticed.

    Trump deciding and saying from the OO that “I like this guy. He’s smart. He can speak for me anytime.” that’s gonna leave a mark on the usual suspects.

    “Sorry Senators, I’m gonna hang out with Kanye for a bit”.

    That’s golden.

    Kanye is forcing a huge fissure on the Left.

    If Kanye thinks Trump is awesome….that has a cultural effect.

  24. Hugh says:

    The Kanye phenomenon is important. Having 100 famous black personalities advocacy for liberal causes mean nothing anymore. It is 100% baked into current thought. The current progressive agenda does not help blacks. Immigration hurts them, Kavanaugh hearing should scare them. A bunch of screaming privileged white people. LGBT rights not their issue. We are ripe to peal away black voters.

  25. Phil says:

    Right on the mark, Hugh. Well stated.

  26. DW says:

    PA_01 polling has finally started at the NY Times/Siena page.

  27. DW says:

    as has VA_10

  28. Mr.Vito says:

    Herschel Walker
    ?Verified account @HerschelWalker

    Herschel Walker Retweeted FOX & friends

    Went to bed appalled over @donlemon despicable behavior laughing at @TaraSetmayer and @Bakari_Sellers awful remarks about Kanye West’s visit with @realDonaldTrump!! Woke up wondering why @CNN doesn’t take all three off the air?

  29. BayernFan says:

    keep em all on the air.

    did you see the MSNBC clip after Kanye Trump meeting?

    total disconnect. WTF is wrong with a man wanting to play catch with his dad?

  30. Mr.Vito says:

    CNN asked Ray J for commentary on Kanye.

    Not kidding.

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    “WTF is wrong with a man wanting to play catch with his dad?”

    I was thinking the same thing. The black community is not allowed to lament the lack of fatherly role models (which I think is what Kanye is calling ‘male energy’ in his Kanye way).

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    Hopefully Herschel has a lot of followers still in atlanta, dallas, philly, minneapolis, ….

  33. Tina says:

    Jim Acosta
    Kanye just said “motherf***er” in the Oval Office. Per WH pool.

    And bj did what with Monica in the Oval Office?

  34. Mr.Vito says:


  35. Mr.Vito says:

    34 What do you mean? That’s a big f@ckin deal!

  36. Mr.Vito says:

    Presidents and Rap and Foul Language goes all the way back to the beginning. What’s the big deal?

  37. Mr.Vito says:

    Fitzpatrick winning by 44% !!!!!

    (ha ha only 6 votes)

  38. Mr.Vito says:

    I meant 34% !!!!

    (who cares… you got the joke)

  39. EML says:

    It’s ovah. Call it for Fitz

  40. EML says:

    VA-10 calls just started

  41. Mr.Vito says:

    “VA-10 calls just started”


  42. Robbottie says:

    Fitz down to +14 already?

    It’s ovah. At this rate, he loses by 57%.

  43. EML says:

    100% are Undecided in VA-10

  44. Mr.Vito says:

    And with four votes each, Fitz is losing by 2%.

  45. EML says:

    PA-01 is 4-4, but Fitz is down 51%-49%. No shenanigans here!

  46. BayernFan says:

    How are you getting those real time results?

  47. BayernFan says:

    Kanye got woke.

  48. Tina says:

    Larry Scheikart

    Love it.

    “Republicans, the Party of Jobs.”
    “Democrats, the Party of Mobs.”
    10:13 AM – Oct 11, 2018

  49. NYCmike says:

    “You can watch them poll.”

    -Stormy is on CNN again?

  50. Tina says:

    Kanye must be a Russian Agent,

    -Fuhrer Mulehead

  51. lisab says:

    barbara bush the younger got married a couple of days ago … she was almost out of her dress …

    anyway, guess which former presidential candidate was not invited?!!!!

    it has been a pretty bad year for jeb! even his niece did not want him.

  52. Wes says:

    Mnw, this RRH “Republican” tried to defend Sinema by saying she said something different from what she actually said:

    October 11, 2018 at 3:36 pm | In reply to MosheM
    The counterclaim to Sinema is that she clearly only meant the Republicans being crazy – and that’s just your normal political talk in America.

    Another RRH “Republican” replied by quoting Sinema accurately.

    By the way, McSally has tweeted out what Sinema said. Expect an attack as soon.

  53. Redmen4ever says:

    Nate Silver – poll dancer

  54. Wes says:


    In January, three of my four favorite members of the US House will be gone from the chamber:

    1) Kristi will be Governor of South Dakota.

    2) McSally will be Senator from Arizona.

    3) Comstock will be working for a lobbying firm.

    Only Jaime Herrera-Beutler will still be serving in the House at that time.

  55. Mr.Vito says:

    Apparently women don’t answer phones in these congressional districts.

  56. NYCmike says:

    “it has been a pretty bad year for jeb! even his niece did not want him.”

    -I was wondering about that……seems odd to not have your uncles over for a wedding, but then again, I guess I am used to the Brooklyn-type celebration.

  57. DW says:

    So far 5 votes for Wexton, 1 for Comstock, and 1 undecided.

  58. EML says:

    Apparently women don’t answer phones in these congressional districts.
    Dr. Oz is on.

  59. BayernFan says:

    thanks Vito

  60. EML says:

    MN-08 rolling

  61. BayernFan says:

    pretty cool that hardly anyone answers the phone.

  62. DW says:

    Comstock surging, down now only 50/42 from 72/14!!!

  63. DW says:

    65 was a joke, seeing if I could get a rise out of Wes.

  64. EML says:

    Stauber (R) 100 point lead in MN-08. Call it.

  65. EML says:

    Comstock takea the lead!

  66. Wes says:

    I wish Comstock had a path to victory, DW.

  67. DW says:

    only two votes so far in MN_08, and Stauber (R) leads 44% to 56% undecided and 0% for the Dem.

    How does 1 vote and one undecided get split 44/56?

    So really whacky weighting?

  68. Wes says:


    The Dems tried to turn the man into Ted Bundy. He responded as any human being would.

    Ay Dios Mio…

  69. Wes says:

    Dems are reduced to hoping Cramer will self-destruct. Good luck with that:

  70. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    71. Kavanaugh’s response probably saved his nomination. Leftist do not know how to react when someone defends themselves vigorously. Trump smartly speaking at the rally and focusing the discussion on Dr. Ford’s credibility helped too.

  71. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Meanwhile, O’Connell is now getting a lot of new federal judges approved.

  72. NYCmike says:

    Judge Kavanaugh is now Justice Kavanaugh. He will be there for a long time, GOD willing.

    Leftists reacted as they always do: by lying, screaming, throwing temper tantrums, and trying to change the subject to his judicial temperament, which had never been questioned before.

    They NEVER stop fighting. Similarities between them and jihadists, to a point, of course.

    Then again, there have been several who took it to include bloodshed, so even closer than we think.

  73. DW says:


    Mason-Dixon – FL_27

    Shalala (D) 42%
    Salazar (R) 44%

  74. DW says:

    FL_27, 538 says Likely D, several other says Lean D, and credit Cook and Politico for saying Tossup.

  75. DW says:

    538 didn’t flinch.
    FL_27 is still likely D.

    They have to leave it, because their formula is not capable of making compatible the CNN generic ballot D+13 with the FL_27 by M-D or the WA_08 by Elway.

  76. Tina says:

    Dina Powell no longer in running for un ambassador.


    This would be just as bad as putting Quittens as Sos.

  77. DW says:



    Kim (D) 40%
    MacArthur (R-Inc) 44%

    For an internal release, you would like a bit more, but the recent D-Internal was only 47/45 for the Dem. Monmouth actually gave MacArthur a 1 point lead, so who knows, maybe this is the one of the vulnerable NJ seats the GOP pulls out.

  78. Cash Cow TM says:

    This poll at the top of this thread cannot be right.
    It shows Cruz up 9 points.

    I just got an email from Beto and the Dems that says that Beto is up 8 points in Texas for U.S. Senate race.

  79. Cash Cow TM says:

    My friend–Tally Hassie–down in Florida says that she saw where ISIS is claiming responsibility for Hurricane Michael.
    Does Mr. Vito know anything about that?

  80. EML says:

    The Frederick/Clarke portion of the NYT VA-10 poll really sinking Comstock roght now. 71% D in an area that was 60% Trump.

  81. mnw says:

    WI GOV

    NBC has Walker -10, or MORE, depending on the model. NBC has an article up explaining why their poll is so different from the nearly simultaneous Marquette poll, which showed Walker +1.

    Odd to me that Sinema is catching real grief now over the “crazy AZ” statement, but not over the radical connections stories.

    P.S. What would I ever do without spellcheck to correct “Ducey” to “Ducky,” and “Sinema” to “Cinema”?

  82. Robbie says:

    Henry Olsen

    If I were Trump, I’d consider dumping Pence and making .@nikkihaley my VP in 2020. Imagine the Left dealing with the fact that leadership of the GOP would effectively be passed to a daughter of immigrants and a dynamic woman of color.

  83. mnw says:

    FOX has a big story up now about “surprising” FL-27, i.e., the surprise being that Shalala could very well lose.

    Wes et al:

    I believe The Wise Men are getting testy, & not just about my own warning yesterday. I think they’re irritable because their beloved blue wave meme is in some peril.

  84. mnw says:

    Vichey wishcasting again.

  85. Tina says:

    Glenn Simpson will plead the Fifth to avoid testifying to Congress. He was likely to be asked about inconsistencies in his testimony about Bruce Ohr.…
    View summary ·

  86. Tina says:

    fter beclowning himself with absurd and slanderous allegations during the Kavanaugh circus? Endorse Beto.

    — Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) October 11, 2018

    Absolute ownership,of Beta.

  87. DW says:

    Wow, Stauber (R) stomping the drat in Siena’s MN_08 poll, with 111 responses so far he is leading 50/31

  88. Chicon says:

    So, the Dem Senate candidate in AZ has some serious bone headed stuff out there. Were she a Republican some here – many, actually – would be calling her a deadender (credit to Wes, who was close).

    Both parties nominate dopes sometimes.

  89. DW says:

    Just checked the 538 page again, and Silver has totally lost his mind. Some outfit no one has ever heard of before, Public Religion Research Institute, dropped a generic ballot poll that’s D+15, and so he makes another hard left turn on his forecast even though all the recent polling of individual races go the other way. Silver himself gives Elway an A+ rating, but by implication is saying they are a full ten points off in the poll of WA_08.

  90. MichiganGuy says:

    Arizona – Governor
    Ducey 47.2%
    Garcia 39.6%
    Sinema 43.7%
    McSally 43.5%
    Change Research

  91. DW says:

    Polling response rates are horrible…in Texas Siena has called almost 52,000 numbers, and only 794 people have responded.

  92. Diamond Jim says:


  93. MichiganGuy says:

    Generic Congressional Ballot:
    Democrats 47%
    Republicans 41%


  94. mnw says:

    MG 97

    It should be pointed out that:

    That Change Research poll was commissioned by the DEM candidate (Garcia) for AZ Gov.

    So, it is an internal.

    And it’s NOT good for Garcia (D) at all, & I don’t think it’s good for Sinema either– considering it’s a poll commissioned & released by the DEM.

  95. MichiganGuy says:

    Georgia Governor:
    Brian Kemp (R) 48%
    Stacy Abrams (D) 46%
    Ted Metz (L) 2%

    U. of Georgia/AJC/wsbtv–regional-govt–politics/ajc-channel-poll-abrams-and-kemp-tight-race-trump-approval/ySaDfKCZYXj3RrGnJUBE6O/

  96. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, good catch. I missed that. Arizonia is looking good for Ducey & McSally

  97. DW says:

    Wow, Stauber (R) is continuing to put a whoopin’ on the Drat in MN_08 poll. This could be significant, because its Siena’s first redo. Last month (pre-Kavanaugh) they polled it and it Stauber came out ahead by a single point 43/42.

    Tonight with 129 responses so far, Stauber is up 53/30.

  98. Hugh says:

    My prediction rich white progressive vote in droves. Blacks not so much. Nothing for them to get excited about. Millennial males drift more gop compared to 2016. Raging rural trump voters vote like crazy again. Suburbanites vote their pocketbooks. We win the close senate races. At least plus 4. My one big concern now is Scott. He owned the panhandle. How will the hurricane hurt the panhandle coastal voting??

  99. MichiganGuy says:

    Evers (D) 50%
    Walker (R) 42%
    Anderson (L) 3%
    Evers (D) 53%
    Walker (R) 43%
    Baldwin (D) 54%
    Vukmir (R) 40%

    NBC/Marist Poll

  100. marc says:

    Rick Scott is getting lots of positive press in the local media around the state, his numbers should get a slight bounce after this.

  101. Hugh says:

    Will panhandle coastal residents be able to vote

  102. marc says:

    It won’t hurt voting in the panhandle State law gives those effected by hurricanes that request it a mail in ballot etec

  103. Redmen4ever says:

    Siena is allowing us to look inside the sausage factory.

    It ain’t pretty.

  104. marc says:

    Also Florida has about a month of early voting

  105. Hugh says:

    Pretty much two weeks worth near Lauderdale.

  106. MichiganGuy says:

    NJ 3rd District:
    Tom MacArthur (R-inc) 44
    Andy Kim (D) 40

    National Research Inc./tmac4congress (R) Internal poll

  107. DW says:

    116 – already posted in 83

  108. DW says:

    Stauber up now 55/28. My goodness. I hope this holds.

  109. Mr.Vito says:

    Bad polling day for Fitzpatrick.

  110. MichiganGuy says:

    “Democrat Phil Bredesen is up with a response ad to a recent commercial from Republican Marsha Blackburn arguing that he turned a blind eye to sexual harassment as governor. The spot features several women who worked with Bredesen declaring that Blackburn is lying about him and that he’s “always had a zero tolerance policy for sexual harassment.” They briefly address Blackburn’s charge that he shredded documents to keep things quiet, with one woman declaring, “The only shredding was to protect the privacy of the victims of sexual harassment.”
    This was posted on the daily kos site.

  111. Mr.Vito says:

    “This year also has a lot of similarities to 2006, as Republican incumbents who easily carried their CDs just two years earlier, are getting pulled under by an unpopular president. But, back then, Democrats were picking up seats in rural/blue collar country (southeastern Ohio, western North Carolina and southern Indiana) and coming up short in suburban Philadelphia, Chicago and Connecticut. This year, however, those suburbs are more vulnerable than ever, while Democrats are more likely to fall short in the blue collar/rural districts that Obama carried back in 2012.”

  112. Hugh says:

    Vito. Good read. I have to believe that the Kavanaugh victory contrary to media hopes will cause some of the dem deadenders to stay home. These idiots are convinced the dems collapsed and did not try hard enough. We are not the only party of stupid

  113. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena Texas poll is finished.

    Cruz +8 and outside MOE

  114. Phil says:

    Seems they were having a tough time getting responses in Texas.

  115. Tina says:

    Scott Adams
    Scott Adams
    Kanye broke Don Lemon.…
    5:06 PM – 11 Oct 2018

    Kanye also broke cn and n and mslsd.

  116. Tina says:

    The tough time in Texas prolly adds a few more points for Cruz.

    Got to think 15 may be his max.

    Beta has not stopped the bleeding from the last debate.

  117. Tina says:

    Ronald Brownstein
    From top Hispanic pollster in August: “it’s a little too soon to push the panic button, but having said that, we are not seeing the types of #s with Hispanic voters that we should be seeing w/the most hostile person to ever hold public office against Hispanics as the President”…
    4:32 AM – 11 Oct 2018

  118. Tina says:

    a McDaniel
    The same spokesman for Democrat Phil Bredesen who called @realDonaldTrump voters “idiots” thinks gun owners are “the biggest terrorist organization on the planet.” And once again, Bredesen refuses to condemn it. #TNSen…
    View summary ·

    Stick a fork in this poser, it is Ovah.

  119. mnw says:

    Tina 128

    Yes. Agreed.

  120. Cash Cow TM says:

    Seems like registered voters are giving a big middle finger to all the polling companies and are outright refusing to pick up the phone and participate in the polling questions.
    People (and cows) distrust EVERYTHING now-a-days.

  121. mnw says:

    Sinema HAS responded to the “crazy” video. You either find her response persuasive, or not.

    The fact that she felt she had to respond is wunnerful!

    P.S. She sez, “It was because of my concern for the chillens”

  122. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena Tennessee poll is finished.

    Blackburn +14 and outside MOE

  123. mnw says:


    I distrust more than you distrust… I THINK. My distrust-o-meter is jammed at 11. It won’t go any higher.

  124. Victrc says:

    So I just ran through Cook’s list and RCP toss up list and looked at the polls. If everything swings the way it is right now the R’s hold the house 219-216.

    Thoughts on this being the possible outcome?

  125. mnw says:


    Beats me.

  126. MichiganGuy says:

    Wow: Under #Oregon’s Democrat Governor Kate Brown, Antifa protestors are taking control of the streets in Portland.
    Sorry, if this has been posted already but, wow, I hope she loses reelection. If I was Knute Buehler I would run this on TV until my money ran out.

  127. jason says:

    If I were Trump, I’d consider dumping Pence”


    Poor Amoral Scumbag, still trying to think of ways to overturn the results of the election.

    But remember, he “loves Pence”.

  128. jason says:

    Blackburn +14 and outside MOE”

    Outside MOF too.

  129. jason says:

    Hispanic voters that we should be seeing w/the most hostile person to ever hold public office”

    He is certainly not hostile to Hispanic business owners and taxpayers.

  130. Tina says:

    Jason, lowest Hispanic unemployment rate ever.

  131. Mr.Vito says:

    Volunteers for Bredesen are quitting over his statement supporting Kavanaugh, and it looks like the rest of Tennessee didn’t buy into it.

  132. MikeKS says:

    Random thought for the day. Was told that out of the non “target” Senate races — WV, ND, IN, MT, MO, FL, Tx, TN, AZ, and NV – that the one to watch is now Michigan. James is closing.

  133. MichiganGuy says:

    MikeKS, I would love to see James win but, it’s not gonna happen.

  134. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan 08:
    Bishop (R-Inc) 47%
    Slotkin (D) 44%
    Voters Lean towards Republicans Controlling House 47-46%; Give President Trump 48-47% Job Approval Rating
    The New York Times Upshot / Siena College Michigan 08 Poll

  135. gameboy says:


    If things continue to trend the way they are right now we are looking at 56 in the Senate (includes Menendez going down and/or the Michigan guy pulling it out), and a pick up of a handful seats in the house. The momentum will continue so long as the Dems keep acting like a bunch of lunatics….which shouldn’t be an issue as they can’t control themselves.

  136. Todd McCain says:

    Blackburn ran/is running a strong campaign; that race is going to be a complete blowout.

  137. DW says:

    AZ_01 – R Internal

    O’Halleran (D-Inc) 38%
    Rogers (R) 44%

    Probably a push poll without a hard push on undecided voters, but take for what its worth.

  138. Bitterlaw says:


    Inca-American unemployment rate is 0%

  139. Redmen4ever says:

    Beto reports $38 M. haul during third quarter.

    Looks like they took the Cruz bait.

  140. Todd McCain says:

    AZ1 was supposed to be a lean D race.

  141. Toast says:

    Whew. Made it through another breakfast.

  142. Tina says:

    Tonight for happy hour I’m ordering @BetoORourke shots. They’re Irish whisky, but you lie and tell everyone they’re tequila.
    6:13 AM – 12 Oct 2018

  143. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    Replying to @weaverpundit
    Enema’s district is tougher, actually, than McSally’s due to ASU and our candidate there just isn’t catching fire. In McSally’s districts, Lea Marquez-Peterson is fighting tough and RNC/AZ GOP just put in more money. So I’d see 1 flip and AZ2 hold before 9 flips.
    View conversation ·

    I guess Larry sees us doing well in Az due to Enema who is collapsing. Traced to the tutu ad imo.

  144. Tina says:

    y Schweikart
    Enema has basically handed us AZ. I’ll be surprised if by the time she’s finished they can win any of the 3 competitive house seats. Gov race over a month ago.
    View details ·

  145. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    “Enema” Sinema steps in it again. This one is more anti-Arizona than yesterday’s uh-oh! Meth-jokes!

  146. Wes says:

    Of course had Mikey had his way, AZ would be a battle of the gaffe machines as Ward and Sinema fought to see who could insult more Arizonans.

  147. Wes says:

    Ahem, Sheeple. One post above yours.

  148. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    You are younger and have faster fingers and reflexes. Please pity an “old man”, but not as old as mnw or Walt!

  149. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Maybe after she loses next month, “Enema” Sinema can get a late night TV gig!

    Boy, her “moderate” phoniness has now been exposed.

  150. Tina says:

    Sheeple, I think the tutu ad against enema was the beginning of the end,

    Ducey is strong at top of ticket for his race.
    Mcsalley is strong and has been an effective puncher.

  151. SoHope says:

    Omg….looks like the gop has been sitting on a treasure trove of Sienema gaffes waiting till October…this feels good

  152. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Tina,Wes and So Hope:
    Here is another “Enema” Sinema pearl where she mocks students at Arizona State University as a bunch of moronic partiers:

  153. mnw says:

    The Wise Men today link to a local FOX TV report in Phoenix about Sinema’s “meth lab” statement. The msm suppressed all this completely for 36 hrs, as near as I could tell from googling it. I guess they decided finally that they just couldn’t ignore it altogether. I still think her rallies with the convicted terrorist were far worse. They never did report that.

    I think it’s noteworthy that RRH describes Sinema’s talks as being given to “Democratic groups,” INSTEAD of a Lesbian organization, & Netroots. Sinema was really fat. I guess she slimmed down for this race.

    Btw, I contributed to Ward when she alone was trying to run Flake out of the Senate. I stopped when Flake gave up & McSally entered, because it was clear to me that McSally was the stronger of the two.

  154. Cash Cow TM says:


    Two members of the WV Sup. Ct. were under federal investigation.

    ONE resigns and plea bargains with the feds.

    A temporary replaced was named to the bench.
    The SECOND one had a federal 22 count indictment dropped on him for spending abuses of court money that violate federal law.

    He has been suspended without pay and the federal trial is just wrapping up.

    A temporary SC judge replaced him on the WV Sup. ct. If he is found guilty, someone will be appointed to fill that slot on the SC.

    He and the remaining 3 members of the WV supreme court were impeached by WV House of Delegates over many charges of malfeasance–including spending MILLIONS to redecorate their 20′ X 20′ offices.

    Then, one justice resigns immediately after the impeachment vote.

    So now there is a race to fill TWO WV SC slots via the ballot in the Nov. GE.

    The WV Senate has completed the impeachment trial for one of the SC judges and voted to NOT remove from office by a 32-1 vote–but did issue a severe reprimand.
    ALSO, another impeached justice has filed a court case saying the impeachment by the WV House of Delegates was illegal and should be overturned and vacated. Says it violated separation of powers.

    The five temporary appointees to the WV SC to hear this case (all are retired circuit judges in WV) had ruled IN HER FAVOR that the IMPEACHMENT WAS ILLEGAL!

    WV legislature moving toward appealing the WV SC ruling to the US Sup. Ct.
    Cow’s head is spinning….

  155. mnw says:


    Cook moved NV-04 from Likely D to Lean D.

    Something’s going on in NV, I think.

  156. mnw says:


    Did you notice your governor’s new tattoo?


  157. Cash Cow TM says:


    Cow would like to drop this right here:

    Manchin campaign releases a poll they did that says they are up 12 points.

    This is before the U.S. Senate’s Kavanaugh vote.
    Morrisey campaign releases a poll they did saying in is Manchin 44, Morrisey 43 (within the MOE). This was done AFTER the Kavanaugh vote.
    This poll says that the LIBERTARIAN candidate is getting 8% of the vote (which will be nowhere near that on election day).

  158. Redmen4ever says:

    People are catching on: Hispanics are breaking Republican.

  159. BayernFan says:

    It seems to me that often when Republicans win, or win big, the punditry and media didn’t see it coming. 1980, 1994, 2002, 2004, 2010, 2014 a little, 2016. Silent voters just doing their thing.

  160. DW says:

    And I found the reason why Cook moved NV_04

    Horsford (D) 37%
    Hardy (R) 41%

    R-Internal (Moore Information)

    (No BOOM because its an R internal)

  161. DW says:

    IA_01 – R Internal

    Finkenauer (D) 44%
    Blum (R-GivenUpForDead) 43%

    But whenever you release an internal showing you are losing, all you are doing is confirming what everyone else knows.

  162. Wes says:

    I don’t know about you, Bay, but even though I was only 16 at the time I was paying attention in 1994. From mid year on, alarm bells were sounding among Dems about the possibility of a GOP House takeover. While some in the media may not have genuinely expected it news reports were clearly stating the possibility.

  163. Todd McCain says:

    NV 3 and 4 are both tossup IMO, polling has been sparse though.

  164. dblaikie says:

    Well it looks like the mask has been torn off Sinema! Arizona, even though the talking heads won’t admit it, is now likely GOP. In addition something is happening in Nevada where I grew up — the GOP base in Northern Nevada has been energized by the Kavanaugh hearings.

    In fact all a GOP candidate needs to do from House Seats on up is just show a montage of what happened in Washington last week and then ask this question: Is this what you want for the next two years?

    I don’t know about the mythical, ever allusive blue wave, but I do know that in the Senate their is a Red Wave coming. That is huge story but no one will report it.

  165. BayernFan says:

    yes wes, there were indications. But the sense I got from the media that the extent of the win was a complete shock. The GOP never wins Congress. Even when it won 47 seats or whatever in 1966, it didn’t win congress. When it won 33 in 1980, it didn’t win Congress. And those were the two biggest GOP gains since 1946 I think. But 53 seats?!?!? Totally fried their minds. I think many of them still thought that the GOP would gain, but come up short.

  166. dblaikie says:

    I hate and despise bad grammar. Teaches me about lack of proof reading. Of course I meant THERE IS A RED COMING. Sorry!

  167. BayernFan says:

    My main point is that in most if not all of these examples, it is the silent voter that makes his/her way to the polls. Sometimes even good polls miss it. Maybe it’s late breaking. But it’s happened so many times I find it hard to discount that it is there the whole time from say August forward.

  168. mnw says:


    I haven’t seen any polls. CLF announced 3 weeks ago that they had reserved $1.5 mill in ad buys. Another PAC $1 mill.

    This is Rosen’s former seat.

  169. dblaikie says:

    The CNN poll of the generic ballot was taken to try and depress the GOP and give false comfort to the Dems. That is it.

    Mostlikely if they tried to be accurate now that GOP enthusiasm is way up, the poll should be even to plus 5 Democrat.

    But then you must factor in that historically the generic poll always over polls Dems by about 3 or 4 points. If that is true, and I believe it is. The true generic ballot is now +3 GOP to + 3 Dems.

    Once again out there on my lonely limb, GOP pickup in Senate 5 seats. GOP pickup in House 4 seats.

    Willie Nelsen gives me my theme: “I’m crazy. Crazy for being so lonely.”

  170. Cash Cow TM says:


    Factors to consider that may affect final outcome in GE:

    –Manchin holds the likeability factor.

    –Far left in WV very upset with Manchin over Kav vote. Some of them are gunna vote Libertarian as protest vote against Manchin for Kav vote. As election nears, some of these will drift back to Joe. But Libertarian guy will probably get @ 5% of total vote.

    –Very hot race in WV CD 3 (southern third of state) to fill open set that as held by Rep. Evan Jenkins. I am feeling more comfortable that the R will win this over the D, lunatic and she seems to be pulling away. I figger Carol Miller (R) will win by 5-8 pts–maybe more.

    –The WV CD3 area has traditionally been a big supporter of Manchin. The outcome of the U.S senate race could very well be decided by how Manchin does there.

    –Morrisey is from the far eastern panhandle (my area of residence), but that area of the state historically has a significantly lower voter turnout in elections than rest of state.

    –STATEWIDE, there are TWO constitutional amendments on the ballot: #1 restrict abortion and #2 give WV legislature oversight over WV court system budget (WV only state where there is no legislative oversight over the hundreds of millions of $$$ of the State judiciary budget.
    BOTH measures SHOULD drive conservative people to the polls in Nov.

    Manchin ads focus on:
    1. Morrisey (WV AG) supporting Anti-OmamaCare push that Manchin says will remove existing conditions protections of WV people currently covered by ACA and devastate them

    2. Morrisey position during the WV teacher strike where he wanted to take legal action to get teachers off the picket line and back to the classroom. Teacher Union bosses tout Manchin, YOUNGER teachers are all in for Joe, but most teachers in WV are older and higher income and demographically fit the conservative R model. How will teachers vote?


    3. Morrisey is from NJ so he is not one of us.

    4. Morrisey’s wife worked for Big Pharma as a lobbyist and Morrisey gets campaign money from Big Pharma that pushed tens of millions of pills on WV that caused a big drug problem…

    Morrisey meme is:
    1. it is time for Joe to go.

    2. If you support Trump, then vote for Morrisey because he supports Trump and his agenda and you cannot trust Joe to do that.

    3. Manchin’s daughter is CEO (with multi-million $$ salary) of Mylan Pharmaceutical and they make inhalers for asthma people and not too long ago skyrocketed the price of a two-pack of inhalers to $700. So Joe Manchin is in the pocket of Big Pharma.
    I say race is Manchin ahead by @ 5%.

    Who will have the best push to the finish line in Nov. GE?


    How big a factor will the two Const. Amendments on the ballot be on turnout?


    Manchin is from north central WV (Fairmont) and lives/lived in Charleston where he was in office for @ 20 years, and will probably do well in those areas. How will northern panhandle (Wheeling, etc) and Ohio Valley go in Nov.?


  171. Barrett says:

    someone probably already posted something to this affect.

    Let’s assume that RCP is exactly right. That 204 seats are Safely Dem and 199 are Safely Republican.

    Then lets assume again that the polling on all available tossup districts is accurate.

    I went through each one, unless I missed something, I see 22 for Republicans, 10 for Democrats.

    204+10 = 214 Dem Seats
    199+22 = 221 Rep Seats

    There are currently 193 Democrats in congress, so a pickup of 221 – A blue wave perhaps, but not enough.

  172. Cash Cow TM says:


    Did you notice your governor’s new tattoo?


  173. BayernFan says:

    that would be a huge loss for the Dems

  174. Phil says:

    I assume the 38 mil just reported in the last quarter raised by Beto is his cumulative total not what he raised in just the last quarter. He has a lot of money. Wonder what he intends to do with all that money?

  175. Barrett says:

    #186 – I wish I had more time to do a real analysis. There’s probably a margin of error of +/- 10 seats based off what I said, hah.

  176. MikeP says:

    Good morning,
    Another election for us to win. It is good to see many old-timers returning to HHR. This still my go to get accurate information

  177. DW says:


    Since your return, have you seen my dashboard that lays out the polling information within a grid showing what the Dems need to win to gain control?

    For the polling gap, I average polls, but give less weight to older ones, and internal releases get re-weighted adding 3 points to the opposing party:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 50/46 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 0
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | -6
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | -10
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  178. dblaikie says:

    Frankly I believe averaging in polls is counter-productive. It is silly to give the same weight to adult, registered voters and likely voters. In adult and registered voter polls a huge portion of the sample doesn’t even vote. If you are going to average that needs to be taken into account. A poll is meant to be a snap shot of the electorate that has a very short time where it actually means something. So having polls in an average that are more than a week old is garbage that produces a garbage result. Averaging bogus polls with reputable polls only muddies the water about what is actually going on with the electorate. In other words throwing Maxon Dixon polls and Seltzer polls into an average is degrades them.
    I could go on but when posters say that they only depend on using poll averages they simply don’t know what they are doing. That goes for pundits too.

  179. Diamond Jim says:


  180. Diamond Jim says: