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Blackburn Leads By 14% in TN, Cruz Leads By 8% in TX

Marsha Blackburn has opened up a huge 14% lead in Tennessee according to folks at The New York Times and Siena College.

US SENATE – TENNESSEE (NYT/Siena)
Marsha Blackburn (R) 54%
Phil Bredesen (D) 40%

Meanwhile in Texas, the same pollsters have Ted Cruz now up by 8%.

US SENATE – TEXAS (NYT/Siena)
Ted Cruz (R-inc) 51%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 43%

Both polls were done October 8-11 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 11:58 am
Filed under: General | Comments (423)

423 Responses to “Blackburn Leads By 14% in TN, Cruz Leads By 8% in TX”

  1. lisab says:

    another cruz poll?

  2. JulStol says:

    Test?

  3. lisab says:

    SUPERBETO raises $38.1 million in months; Smashes ALL records…

  4. JulStol says:

    Interesting… Hal wouldn’t let me post from my phone. Hmm…

  5. lisab says:

    Michelle O is Dem rock star many wish would run for president…

  6. CG says:

    Wow, Taylor Swift is TOXIC!

  7. lisab says:

    That 204 seats are Safely Dem and 199 are Safely Republican.

    204+10 = 214 Dem Seats
    199+22 = 221 Rep Seats

    There are currently 193 Democrats in congress, so a pickup of 221 – A blue wave perhaps, but not enough.
    —————————

    the dems have to win the house

    it would be a huge blow to them if they lose … pelosi’s last chance to be speaker i would guess

    unless of course the dem leadership has decided this mob rule stuff has gone to far and is hurting them for 2020 … on the theory that if they won the house they would be pushed by the mob to impeach everyone

    but i don’t think the dem leadership can help themselves or is that smart

  8. mnw says:

    49/50 today (Fri.) = Trump JA

    37-41 = very fave/very unfave

  9. lisab says:

    ‘This Is Pathetic’: Progressives Furious as Schumer Rubber Stamps 15 More Right-Wing Judges for Trump

  10. DW says:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 10
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 6
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 50/46 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) |45/41 (PPP-D) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    PA_01 – R – 49/42 | 50/46 (Monmouth) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/43 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 0
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | -6
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | -10
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | -24
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | -27

  11. lisab says:

    Beto winning in texas is the only bright spot today for the dems

  12. lisab says:

    out of the dozen+ judges confirmed today a full half were by voice vote

    only 1 of the roll call votes was close

    the dems are getting crushed today on judge appointments

    apparently schumer let them go through so his senators could go campaign this weekend

  13. Eric Lucas says:

    Beto wasting $38 million is “winning”?

  14. DW says:

    Updated dashboard based on forecasters. GOP once again under water on holding control because the CNN generic ballot poll is the only one Silver pays attention to.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    NY_23 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OH_10 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_06* R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_18 R | 167 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    TX_31 R | 168 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.7
    WI_06 R | 169 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    MI_06 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    MI_07 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    PA_16 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    NY_24 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    MT_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_07 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    IL_14 R | 183 | Toss | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
    NY_11 R | 184 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 2.8
    NY_27 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    VA_05 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | 2.4
    AR_02 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_10 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    WI_01* R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    NE_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.8
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    TX_23 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.6
    WV_03* R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    NM_02* R | 199 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1
    PA_01 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 0.8
    FL_26 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.8
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    IL_12 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    TX_32 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    MN_08* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.4
    ME_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KY_06 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    MI_08 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    IL_06 R | 216 | Ln D | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | -0.1
    IA_03 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    WA_08* R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    KS_03 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.1
    MI_11* R | 208 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.5
    FL_27* R | 207 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.5
    CO_06 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.6
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    PA_07* R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_03* D | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.1
    CA_49* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 198 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.3
    NH_01* D | 197 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    NV_04* D | 195 | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.3
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    CA_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    OR_05 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  15. lisab says:

    Beto wasting $38 million is “winning”?
    ———————–

    yup, reddit politics assures me Beto is raising four times the money cruz is

    winning big in texas for sure

  16. lisab says:

    Want Americans to vote? Give them the day off. (washingtonpost.com)
    ——————-

    i don’t think the wp has thought this through

    half the dem constituents already have every day off

    the same way they are pushing to mob action, when the other side belongs to the nra

    not the best chess players at the wp

  17. Phil says:

    LOL

    I don’t know what they are smoking over there but rhe only thing Beto is winning is some sort of a post election gig on MSNBC.

  18. lisab says:

    Team Beto has every reason to boast. The Texas congressman is running a fine race; he’s generated all kinds of excitement in a contest that many expected to ignore; and he’s forced Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and other Republicans to scramble to hold onto a seat in one of the nation’s most reliably “red” states.

    Indeed, a $38.1 million quarterly haul would be a good total for a competitive presidential candidate. Jeb Bush raised $35.5 million for his entire national candidacy a few years ago – and Jeb was a pretty good fundraiser.

    The fact that an underdog Senate candidate raised that much in a midterm is jaw-dropping. If O’Rourke had raised $3.8 million in the quarter, it would’ve been fairly impressive. He instead raised 10 times that number.

  19. NYCmike says:

    “and he’s forced Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and other Republicans to scramble to hold onto a seat in one of the nation’s most reliably “red” states.”

    -lisab,

    Wes posted a link the other day which stated the NRSC ( i believe) was THINKING about getting involved.

    It did not say if they ever did or not.

    Still waiting for evidence of actual $$$ spent in support of Cruz……

  20. NYCmike says:

    BUT, great job by Beto to keep $38 million away from other candidates that might get within……say……5%?

  21. lisab says:

    Guys.

    I live in a sparsely populated county in Texas, historically VERY Red. Gun toting, tobacco spitting, off-white hating RED.

    I happened to be driving through my county seat Wednesday, and I saw Beto campaign signs on people’s lawns.

    For the first time in a long time, i’m feeling good about what may come of Texas politics.

  22. Todd McCain says:

    Beto loses by 10 in the end.

  23. Phil says:

    ‘‘Generated all kinds of excitement”

    Where? In Hollywood? In the Democratic cheerleading MSM? At NY Democratic fundraising events?

    He is a rockstar in Austin. Perhaps he should run ffor mayor there. He’d be a slam dunk.

    Too bad all the groups above don’t get to cast votes in Texas.

  24. Phil says:

    Lisa trolling. Well, done girl.

  25. lisab says:

    Lisa trolling. Well, done girl.
    —————————-

    actually #21 is a quote from another reddit politics … not me trolling per se

    they seem very confident

  26. NYCmike says:

    https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2018/10/12/think-stephen-millers-third-grade-teacher-wishes-shed-kept-her-big-mouth-shut-now/?utm_campaign=twitchywidget

    -My wife is a counselor for children. NEVER, NEVER would she speak badly about a child.

    About the parents – OK, that is a different story. But NEVER the child.

  27. gameboy says:

    In a year like 2006 or 2008 a Dem who dresses himself/herself up as a conservative might have a shot in TX. Beto (Isn’t his real name Bob?…I heard he changed his first name to sound like he is Latino) who is open about his communist leanings doesn’t have a shot down there. I don’t care if he raises a hundred million bucks.

  28. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m starting to think the GOP strategy was to encourage the left to pour as much money as possible down the Beto hole.

  29. Mr.Vito says:

    Don Lemon called Kanye meeting a ‘minstrel show’.

    Yeah… this guy.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khv59U-kqWc

  30. jason says:

    I certainly encouraged Amoral Scumbag to give to Beto until it hurt.

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    https://www.foxnews.com/us/two-men-charged-with-raping-9-month-old-baby-and-filming-attack

    I’d give them 5 minutes chained in a room with Wes and Mr.Bitter.

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    Conor Finnegan
    ?Verified account @cjf39
    Oct 10

    New: @AmbJohnBolton and Jared Kushner spoke to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman yesterday about #Khashoggi, w/ @SecPompeo following up in a separate call–all asking for more details and calling on the Saudis to be transparent in the investigation, per @PressSec.

  33. CG says:

    The national media tended not to mention that the main crux of Kanye’s Oval Office rant was to get Trump to release a notorious Chicago gang leader, who is serving a life term, from prison. Kanye also told Chicago reporters he was able to get Trump to change his mind on “stop and frisk” and educated him that the crime problem in the city is not as bad as he claims.

    But people mostly just noticed the hug, I’m sure.

  34. Robbie says:

    gameboy says:
    October 12, 2018 at 1:26 pm
    In a year like 2006 or 2008 a Dem who dresses himself/herself up as a conservative might have a shot in TX. Beto (Isn’t his real name Bob?…I heard he changed his first name to sound like he is Latino) who is open about his communist leanings doesn’t have a shot down there. I don’t care if he raises a hundred million bucks.

    – It seems to me Beto’s run morphed from a Senate run to a primer for a 2020 presidential run.

  35. CG says:

    If O’Rourke loses and they can’t put him on the 2020 ticket, I am sure they are hoping for Gillum.

  36. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 12, 2018 at 1:45 pm
    I certainly encouraged Amoral Scumbag to give to Beto until it hurt.

    – I encouraged you to keep supporting Rubio even though he wasn’t ready and you did. And then when he had his chance to go after Trump, he talked about hand size and pants wetting.

  37. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 12, 2018 at 2:07 pm
    If O’Rourke loses and they can’t put him on the 2020 ticket, I am sure they are hoping for Gillum.

    – Assuming he comes away from the investigation into his office without a blemish.

    Of course, he’d be a certain loser if the deadenders hadn’t voted for him in the primary.

  38. CG says:

    Maybe DeSantis will find a way to win, but if not, the Trumpists have no excuse whatsoever.

    This is the closest thing possible to a Trump vs. Bernie Sanders proxy race in a swing state.

    The socialist Bernie Sanders..

    If the Trump guy cannot win this one, then reality needs to set in about Trump’s political problems for 2020.

  39. Robbie says:

    Maybe some upcoming data will show a change, but it doesn’t appear the Kavanaugh hearing and its fallout has affected the generic ballot in a significant way. It seems to have helped in several Senate races, but not in the best way we have to measure House races, the generic ballot.

    This could easily be an election that has an even greater divergence than 1982. Right now, a 40 seat loss in the House and a 3 seat gain in the Senate is very possible.

  40. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 12, 2018 at 2:13 pm
    Maybe DeSantis will find a way to win, but if not, the Trumpists have no excuse whatsoever.
    This is the closest thing possible to a Trump vs. Bernie Sanders proxy race in a swing state.
    The socialist Bernie Sanders..
    If the Trump guy cannot win this one, then reality needs to set in about Trump’s political problems for 2020.

    – The Georgia governor’s race is a good proxy as well. In both cases, Trump intervened to help what most considered to be the weaker of the two candidates.

    I think Kemp is still a slight favorite in GA, but DeSantis has to be considered a slight underdog in FL. Unfortunately, that might hurt Rick Scott.

  41. CG says:

    I said early on the Kavanuagh factor would help Republicans in Senate races but not House races.

    I also said to those who were (justifiably to be sure) wanting it to come to a rapid conclusion, that dragging it out as close as possible to the election would be even better for Republicans.

  42. CG says:

    Georgia is another good point, but Trump would lose Florida before he lost Georgia and if he loses Florida, he can’t win anyway.

    Yes, the nomination of Kemp is a disaster. Cagle, for his flaws as well, would be a solid favorite. Maybe Kemp wins, but it shouldn’t be that close.

  43. CG says:

    The big question is who hurt their Democrat Senate candidate more?

    Taylor Swift or Willie Nelson?

    I think clearly Swift.

  44. EML says:

    40 seats, Wobbles? 40 seats in the House would mean Democrats sweep all the Likely D, Lean D, and Tossup races listed on RCP. Not gonna happen

  45. Robbie says:

    EML says:
    October 12, 2018 at 2:23 pm
    40 seats, Wobbles? 40 seats in the House would mean Democrats sweep all the Likely D, Lean D, and Tossup races listed on RCP. Not gonna happen

    – I’ve been at 40 seats since last October. I think it’s the high end of the range, but lots of seats you don’t expect to lose are lost in a wave.

  46. CG says:

    I’m going to hold off on a number prediction until I go through all 535 races individually (starting next week). It’s probably going to be about 30 seats though.

  47. BayernFan says:

    How could kav help in senate races but not house races? If gop voters are stoked they’ll vote in both.

  48. gameboy says:

    The data coming in this week seems to indicate the so called “blue wave” has been squashed. It’s looking, and feeling like a red wave in the Senate, and a red ripple in the house.

  49. CG says:

    It’s very simple.

    Many of the Senate battlegrounds are in red states that have Democrat Senators. Plus, the matter relates directly to the Senate.

    Many of the House battleground races are in suburban areas where Trump did not do anywhere near as well as the red states that have Senate races. Those districts are less conservative.

  50. NYCmike says:

    “If the Trump guy cannot win this one, then reality needs to set in about Trump’s political problems for 2020.”

    -The True Conservative keeps wishing for the Republican President to lose in 2020.

  51. NYCmike says:

    Something on Twitchy tells me that the PA Governor’s race won’t be close.

  52. CG says:

    As a “true conservative”, I wish for another Republican to win. I wish for Trump to not run.

    Both can be true.

  53. CG says:

    And while I do not need for a moment to clarify that I am eternally anti-Trump, someone who actually would want Trump to win, could have said exactly the same thing I did in regards to his political prospects and the specific connection to a virtual proxy race for Florida Governor.

    Can you even name the statewide Republican candidates in your state?

  54. NYCmike says:

    President Trump will be running as a Republican, again, in 2020.

    You want him to lose.

    You want the Republican President to lose.

    Just admit it.

    And also admit that if he loses, a Democrat wins.

    OF COURSE you don’t want that to happen.

  55. NYCmike says:

    Molinaro.

    Please don’t ask for a first name.

    I’ll vote for him on the Conservative line.

  56. CG says:

    If he runs and is nominated I will want him to lose. I will almost certainly want the Democrat to lose as well. Hopefully, there will be a chance someone else can win that fits with my ideology and values. I see genuine possibilities for that. If not, then too bad.

  57. CG says:

    So, you don’t even know his first name.

    What’s the name of the Senate candidate?

    How about the others running statewide?

  58. NYCmike says:

    Lt Governor? No.

    Who else? Probably not.

    NYC politics, besides Governor, have much more of an affect on me.

  59. NYCmike says:

    “What’s the name of the Senate candidate?”

    -Not Schumer?

    Not Gillibrand?

  60. CG says:

    Well, you have a lot in common with your fellow New Yorkers if you can’t name them, but you aren’t exactly in position to judge anyone for not being a good enough Republican for you or a good enough conservative?

    Why aren’t you devoting time to actually get them elected? What do you think you can do for the party beyond defending Donald Trump for any possible thing, on a blog with mostly like-minded people?

  61. NYCmike says:

    “Why aren’t you devoting time to actually get them elected?”

    -Volunteered for Giuliani and Pataki, and my local state senator in the past.

    If I was home for more hours of the day, would think about it. Don’t have that luxury right now.

  62. NYCmike says:

    “What do you think you can do for the party beyond defending Donald Trump for any possible thing, on a blog with mostly like-minded people?”

    -Pointing out that Trump’s actions are just about always better than if Hillary was the one in his position is a very important job.

    And it is pretty tough, with people like you still around.

    #NeverTrump#NotResponsible4DemVictory

  63. DW says:

    Ipsos posts a bunch of month-old senate and governor polls that were taken of ‘adults’ and so Silver on 538 uses it to take another lurch leftward.

  64. CG says:

    At the minimum, you should have an opinion as to whom is more attractive between the New York Republican U.S. Senate nominee and the New York Republican Lt. Governor nominee.

  65. CG says:

    If you are comparing him to Hillary, why not just go bigger and say that you find his actions preferable to what Nicholas Maduro would do?

    If “not Hillary” is all it takes to make you happy…, maybe that line will work even better.

  66. Hugh says:

    Nate may embarrass himself again. We need our version of polls designed to set narratives. The good news is that republicans simply don’t believe them any more.

  67. Redmen4ever says:

    Memo to self: do not release stale polls in the future that reveal how heavy you have your thumb on the scale. LJS

  68. Phil says:

    As of right now I am forecasting we lose 28 in the House, gain a minimum of two in the senate. If we hold Nevada and Arizona (looking increasingly possible – something I couldn’t see two months ago) I think we net 3 senate seats. Democrats believed, and the MSM had hoped, that Democrats had a shot in four states Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas. Tennessee and Texas have been cut off. I for sure believe we flip ND and Missouri. There is a very good possibility we add one more out of Indiana, Montana, and Florida.

    Don’t like losing the House, but it will be a relatively closely divided House next year and not the 40 or 50 seat Democratic blowout the doom and gloomers predicted several months ago.

  69. DW says:

    I am not sure we lose the house. At this point it looks like it will be very close. I am nervous that 5 CA house seats will be the last to report, and thereby be the seats that will decide. There are too many loose car trunks out there might be available for found ballots.

  70. DW says:

    current outlook:

    My current outlook on the House:
    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation, of course subject to change as we have just over 6 weeks to go:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_07, NJ_11, CA_48, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 2 others and 2 surprises = 21 flips

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Net = D+17

    Dems 6 short of capturing control.

  71. Todd McCain says:

    Scott has been getting very positive coverage so far, I suspect he will get a bump. Indiana is trending out direction. Our Senate gain could legitimately be 4-5. Sinema appears to be collapsing.

  72. NYCmike says:

    “If you are comparing him to Hillary, why not just go bigger and say that you find his actions preferable to what Nicholas Maduro would do?”

    -Oh yes, that would be wonderful!

    Actually, I am thinking more along the line of: WHAT WOULD JEB!2016 HAVE DONE IN THIS SITUATION?

  73. Wes says:

    I always thought McSally would beat the “Prada-wearing socialist.” The GOP Congresswoman is unleashing at the right time.

    Brilliant!

  74. Wes says:

    By the way, Mikey, I’m wondering how furious you are to know McSally hasn’t found a way to throw the election like your hero, Dick the Misogynist Bastard Mourdock.

  75. Phil says:

    DW, I would hope you are right. You have certainly done the leg work on all the polling to have a pretty good handle on the individual races. Democrats have a shot at two flips in my state Tx-7 and Tx-32. I believe we hold 32 but Culbertson loses to Fletcher in 7. The amount of $ Democrats are spending on advertising is unbelievable in that district.

  76. DW says:

    Siena had the Republican up three in TX_07, and I expect some Abbott coattails, so I think we hold that one.

  77. NYCmike says:

    Wes,

    How furious?

    I am sooooo furious because I know you will go back in the archives and show my comment where I stated a preference for Ward to win over McSally.//

  78. DW says:

    Gonzales peeked out from under his toupee and made a few house changes, mostly blind to the advances the GOP candidates have made, and 20/20 vision on moving seats in the D direction.

  79. John says:

    Is President Trump planning on any campaign rallies in California prior to the midterms?

  80. DW says:

    And exhibiting a great deal of courage, Gonzales moved NJ Senate from Safe D to Likely D.

  81. NYCmike says:

    And even more furious because when I made my statement earlier in the year, that Republican have a better chance to be at 58 Senate seats (“CG” can vouch for that number) than losing the Senate, I already had confidence that NV and AZ would be holds.

  82. DW says:

    I mean Elway comes out with Dino Rossi up TEN points in WA_08, and Gonzales cannot move it off Tossup to even Tilt R.

  83. Justin says:

    Any new polling out of Indiana or Montana? Anxious to see more from Arizona as well. McSally is great and I hope she takes down the liberal in moderate’s clothing.

  84. CG says:

    Does Sinema dress like a moderate?

    Would need some female perspectives

  85. John says:

    83.
    Third time is a charm. Rossi should have been voted in as governor over Gregoire but the D’s kept finding votes hiden under rocks after three recounts. Rossi lost to Sen. Murray after that.

  86. John says:

    My bad. This is actually Rossi’s fourth try after failing in the 2004 and 2008 governorship election and the 2010 Senate election.

  87. GF says:

    I believe Rossi’s floor/ceiling statewide is 47/48%. He runs well, just can’t break through that last 1.5% or so to win (2004 notwithstanding).

    It’s not just him, sadly; Rob McKenna was a great candidate, elected twice as AG if I recall. Still got 48% to the current Marxist’s 51%.

  88. dblaikie says:

    Robbie (Wormtongue) is at again! He totally ignores the Rasmussen Generic that has it tied. But, he will argue, Rasmussen is biased and garbage while CNN is reliable. And just when I started to think nice things about him. If you are going down this road again, crawl back into your hole.

    Oh and by the way Worm, YouGov has it at 6.

  89. dblaikie says:

    DW we are getting closer. As you know, Crazy DB has Rep. +4.

  90. Mr.Vito says:

    U.S. Democratic Senate hopeful Kyrsten Sinema said “I don’t care” if people go and fight for the Taliban in Afghanistan in a newly resurfaced radio interview and co-hosted a radio show with a conspiracy theorist who claimed the September 11, 2001 terror attacks were perpetrated by the government, Fox News can reveal.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/senate-dem-hopeful-kyrsten-sinema-said-i-dont-care-if-people-go-to-fight-for-taliban-against-us

  91. dblaikie says:

    Here is post from the prior thread. It should get Robbie mad and something like I am a hypocritical Christian:

    The CNN poll of the generic ballot was taken to try and depress the GOP and give false comfort to the Dems. That is it.

    Mostlikely if they tried to be accurate now that GOP enthusiasm is way up, the poll should be even to plus 5 Democrat.

    But then you must factor in that historically the generic poll always over polls Dems by about 3 or 4 points. If that is true, and I believe it is. The true generic ballot is now +3 GOP to + 3 Dems.

    Once again out there on my lonely limb, GOP pickup in Senate 5 seats. GOP pickup in House 4 seats.

  92. dblaikie says:

    “say something …”

  93. CG says:

    “Fox News can also disclose that, in 2005, she befriended a conspiracy theorist who believes 9/11 was perpetrated by the U.S. government.”

    Sinema was friends with Trump?

  94. NYCmike says:

    WOW!

    Talk about living rent-free in someone’s head……the President has a place in Illinois if he needs to stay over.

  95. EML says:

    NYT’s MN-08 and PA-01 cranking again.
    R+25 in MN and D+11 in PA.

  96. Tina says:

    Can we get a link to trump and 9-11 conspiracy theory?

    I think we can find plenty of conspiracy links by the Jebots claiming that the trump tower meeting was illegal.

  97. JulStol says:

    C-note?

  98. Tina says:

    Beta will not win.

    But they are touting him as the presidential nominee in 2020.

    More Beta!!!!!!!

  99. DW says:

    The Dem in NY_01 has released internal poll showing he is trailing the Republican ‘only’ 50/46. In other words, he has conceded defeat.

  100. Robbie says:

    dblaikie says:
    October 12, 2018 at 4:27 pm
    Robbie (Wormtongue) is at again! He totally ignores the Rasmussen Generic that has it tied. But, he will argue, Rasmussen is biased and garbage while CNN is reliable. And just when I started to think nice things about him. If you are going down this road again, crawl back into your hole.
    Oh and by the way Worm, YouGov has it at 6.

    – Once again, I focus on the averages and not any one poll. Also, I don’t put much value in Rasmussen robo polls. I’ll ask you the same question I’ve asked others here. If several states like Indiana don’t allow robo polling, how can Rasmussen provide an accurate national poll?

  101. CG says:

    Here’s just one of the things he said about 9/11

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/donald-trumps-911-bomb-theory-13227061

    Later on, he said Democrats should impeach George W. Bush for allowing 9/11 to happen and for “lying” us into Iraq.

    He also said during the campaign that if he became President, he would release information to show “who really took down the Towers.”

  102. Redmen4ever says:

    Change Research releases a poll showing its client is 14 points behind and its client’s opponent is above 50 percent.

    It’s not a good idea to stiff your polling company.

  103. mnw says:

    A real trollfest here today. Yuk. Whatever it takes to pimp its wittle trollbloig, I guess.

    And of course Vicheytroll too: “Looks like Hillary may carry Missouri!” So of course his analysis commands respect. /s

    Where’s three iii’s? Get stuck in traffic, or… victim of Ebola?

  104. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    So Robbie is predicting a red wave in the Senate, and a blue wave in the house. Preaching doom and gloom requires a bit of contortion given recent events.

  105. DW says:

    More of Silver’s formula exposed:

    VA_05

    Most of them have VA_05 as lean R or likely R.

    538 has it Tilt D. Why?

    There is no known poll of this seat. One of only a few seats in this situation. So all that enters into his formula are the generic ballot polls like CNN’s. Methinks after this election Silver is going to need to chuck his formula if he wishes to remain a resource.

  106. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    I did not vote for Trump in 2016 because of some of the wacko things he said, including his comments on McCain. He was an oddball. In 2020, I am strictly voting on his record as president — which has been surprising good.

  107. Tina says:

    So, we are citing Mark Levine again?

  108. Tina says:

    I am again voting for Hillary in 2020.

    -Jebot

  109. Wes says:

    The polls of individual races mean nothing to Robbie (because they aren’t predicting the Dem wave he so desperately wants to see happen). The GCB is his last refuge of hope for a Dem landslide.

    Ergo, GCB it is.

  110. DW says:

    Wes, it won’t be stated anywhere, but some of these recent polls like Elway in WA_08, Mason-Dixon in FL_27 are sending shock waves of fear and doubt among people who will never admit it publicly.

  111. Wes says:

    DW, while there will always be aberrations in electoral results, when we see polling from so many competitive districts going against the narrative of a Dem blowout, the GCB becomes pointless. We don’t have a parliamentary system wherein we allocate votes based on the national average.

    That means the individual races are the place to look. They tell a much different story from some D+13 GCB average—which is in itself an unrealistic number.

    Robbie has to cherrypick the GCB though and ignore the individual race results because the latter of the two do not provide the information he wants.

  112. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 12, 2018 at 5:31 pm
    A real trollfest here today. Yuk. Whatever it takes to pimp its wittle trollbloig, I guess.
    And of course Vicheytroll too: “Looks like Hillary may carry Missouri!” So of course his analysis commands respect. /s
    Where’s three iii’s? Get stuck in traffic, or… victim of Ebola?

    – Whereas we should all pay attention to an idiot like you who thinks Newt Gingrich has something important to say.

  113. EML says:

    SDC – I’m in the same boat. Did not vote Trump in 2016. Still don’t like his temperment and the whole celebrity surrounding him, but between his accomplishments (judges, economy, tax cuts, although not happy about the tariffs), and the totally off the rails behavior from Democrats, I will be a Trump voter in 2020 (doesn’t really matter here in NY). I do find it a little weird that some of the supposed republicans/conservatives here find no redeeming qualities in his presidency.

  114. mnw says:

    Nunes’ district is another DEM dollar bonfire.

    RRH posters make the point that Beto & Janz (Nunes’ DEM opponent) are being funded by small-dollar donors, not party committees of PACs, however. So, the argument goes, it isn’t the DEM organizations that are wasting money.

  115. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    October 12, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    So Robbie is predicting a red wave in the Senate, and a blue wave in the house. Preaching doom and gloom requires a bit of contortion given recent events.

    – For someone who follows politics closely, you seem to be oblivious to the fact the Senate races that are in question are being fought in traditionally Republican states and ones which Trump carried by a wide margin in 2016.

    Also, maybe look back at history before you flap our gums or tout a Rasmussen poll. In 1982, Republicans lost 26 House seats and gained a Senate seat.

  116. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 5:55 pm
    The polls of individual races mean nothing to Robbie (because they aren’t predicting the Dem wave he so desperately wants to see happen). The GCB is his last refuge of hope for a Dem landslide.
    Ergo, GCB it is.

    – I see Wes has taken to lying like Jason fraud.

    The polling average suggest Republicans are going to lose quite a few seats in the House.

    The polling averages suggests Republicans are in position to gain as many as three Senate seats.

    1970?

  117. Tina says:

    There is another Trump rally tonight.

    Is he in Ohio?

    I am sure he will say hi to Kasich, who now says taxes and regulations were cut too high and we should be pro mullah.

    Since when does the Party of Reagan support the mullahs?

  118. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 6:03 pm
    Robbie has to cherrypick the GCB though and ignore the individual race results because the latter of the two do not provide the information he wants.

    – I’m cherry picking nothing. I’m using the polling averages. If I was focusing solely on “but muh Rasmussen” to the exclusion of others like others here, that would be cherry picking.

  119. Wes says:

    Actually, Robbie, you should do research:

    In 1982, Republicans lost 26 House seats—mostly because of redistricting—and broke even in the Senate.

    A year later when Scoop Jackson died, the GOP gained a Senate seat. It would be the last seat they would pick up in a Pacific state till Dan Sullivan defeated Mark Begich in 2014.

  120. Tina says:

    I just sent Nunes more $.

    Least I could do since he is one R who saved the Republic from a coup by Comedy, McCabe, Broomschyster, Pete the cheat , the mistress, Ohr, and ugly Ohr, etc.

  121. EML says:

    I’m somewhere in between Wobbles silly Republicans -40 and the nonsensical “Republicans will gain seats”. I think it’s going to be very close between Republicans holding on and Democrats taking over.

    What I’m truly not sure about is what I’m rooting for. On one hand, if Democrats don’t pick up the majority under the current situation, with the anger directed towards Trump, it will be absolutely demoralizing and also bring up the question whether Democrats will ever be able to win back the House (of course with the added bonus of holding onto the presidency, the House, and the Senate). On the other hand, giving Democrats the power will certainly bring out even more of the crazy, almost ensuring a second Trump term and even more judges being confirmed.

  122. mnw says:

    Vichey! Vichey!

    KOS kids need him. He’ll feel better over there, too… with the other “airline pilots”!

    Bogo Pogo beckons soon, I think.

  123. Wes says:

    Look JEB! worshiper. The GCB is a broad overview of all the House races. The results for the individual races say something completely different.

    You damn surely are cherrypicking your data when focusing strictly on the macro data from the GCB averages and ignoring the micro data of the polls from the various races.

  124. Weeble says:

    Where’s Wobbles?

  125. mnw says:

    Tina

    I assume Nunes recycles excess $$$ to other Rs, so that’s cool.

  126. Wes says:

    I think the election will be another 1970, EML, with Republicans losing some ground in the House but gaining in the Senate.

  127. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 6:17 pm
    Actually, Robbie, you should do research:
    In 1982, Republicans lost 26 House seats—mostly because of redistricting—and broke even in the Senate.
    A year later when Scoop Jackson died, the GOP gained a Senate seat. It would be the last seat they would pick up in a Pacific state till Dan Sullivan defeated Mark Begich in 2014.

    – I did look up the results. That’s why I had 26 House seats lost and a Senate seat gained. After 1980, Republicans had 53 Senate seats. After the 1982, they had 54.

    The point remains, in rare situations you can have the House go one way and the Senate go another.

  128. EML says:

    Using polling averages, Republicans are up in more than half of the “Tossup” districts, which not only leaves Democrats short of your +40 prediction, but leaves them short of a majority.

  129. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 6:19 pm
    Look JEB! worshiper. The GCB is a broad overview of all the House races. The results for the individual races say something completely different.
    You damn surely are cherrypicking your data when focusing strictly on the macro data from the GCB averages and ignoring the micro data of the polls from the various races.

    – I’m cherry picking nothing. You’re just upset this isn’t 1970.

  130. Tina says:

    Until the Edsel Ford hoax, I Had the Drats gaining the house and Rs gaining 3 senate seats.

    The only thing I have changed now is the house being a toss up.

  131. Wes says:

    Robbie, the GOP got that additional seat well before the elections when Harrison Williams resigned, and Tom Kean replaces him with Nick Brady.

    In the actual elections, they lost NJ and NM while gaining VA and NV.

  132. Robbie says:

    EML says:
    October 12, 2018 at 6:19 pm
    I’m somewhere in between Wobbles silly Republicans -40 and the nonsensical “Republicans will gain seats”. I think it’s going to be very close between Republicans holding on and Democrats taking over.

    – To be clear, my prediction right now is NOT a 40 seat loss. I wrote the other day, if I had to put a number on it, it would be a 30 seat loss.

    However, I have said since last October the conditions suggested Republicans could lose as much as 40 seats and I continue to believe, in a worst case scenario, that could happen.

  133. Wes says:

    Robbie’s mantra:

    Pay no attention to the polling results of the individual races.

    Only the GCB average matters.

    How is that not cherrypicking?

  134. Tina says:

    Breaking

    Her Thighness loses her security clearance.

    No,wonder the Jebots are upset.

  135. Wes says:

    EML, Robbie will never stop wishing ill on the GOP for failing to nominate JEB! in 2016.

  136. Tina says:

    Hillary Clinton lost her security clearance according to an announcement from the Senate Judiciary Committee on Friday.

    Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley also revealed that Hillary Clinton’s aide (who magically became her lawyer) Cheryl Mills along with four others also no longer have clearance.

    Way to go Grasaley. You have bawls….

  137. Wes says:

    For the record, Republicans have a 0% chance of gaining House seats this year.

  138. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 6:28 pm
    EML, Robbie will never stop wishing ill on the GOP for failing to nominate JEB! in 2016.

    – I guess this is one of those things where you believe if you say it enough that will make it so.

  139. mnw says:

    Per FOX, the Sinema campaign has “refused repeated requests for comments” on today’s reports.

    Her name once appeared on a poster inviting folks to a Communist Party May Day event, too.

    Someone at another blog suggested McSally say, “While I was fighting the Taliban, Rep. Sinema was asking people to join them.”

  140. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    137. “I wrote the other day, if I had to put a number on it, it would be a 30 seat loss.”

    Actually, will say that Robbie’s prediction is in the ballpark. I would say somewhere between 20-30 seat gain for the Democrats in the House. 2-3 seat gain for the Republicans in the Senate. But things have changed so much since the Democrats Kavanaugh debacle, could see the Democrats gaining even fewer seats in the House.

  141. GF says:

    Wes, instead of 1970, how about 1962? Lose four seats in the house but pickup three in the Senate? That’s not a prediction, BTW, just a potential wishlist since we’re talking past elections.

    I take it that the Wizard never mentioned why the comment format now scrubs handles and emails from the comment box, right? I get tiring to reenter that information every single time now.

  142. Redmen4ever says:

    Sinema is a moderate communist. More like Trotsky than Stalin. Marcuse, not Mao. She definitely against sending political enemies to the Gulag unless it’s necessary. And as for using starvation as a political weapon, history shows that to be relatively rare, so why are we even talking about it.

  143. mnw says:

    “The blue wave is everybody. It’s Afro-Americans, whites, Latinos. People who’ve been told they’re not welcome here, documented and UNDOCUMENTED.”

    Stacey Abrams
    DEM nominee for GA GOV

    indeed

  144. Tina says:

    I was a communist too.

    -comedy

  145. MichiganGuy says:

    85 million-year-old sea monster found in Kansas.
    .
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/85-million-year-old-sea-monster-found-in-kansas
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    Walt’s pet when he was a kid?

  146. Cash Calf says:

    Leave Walt alone!!!!!

  147. mnw says:

    Stacey Abrams (DEM nominee for GA Gov): “The blue wave is everybody… documented and undocumented.”

    Francine Busby (DEM nominee CA-50 in 2006): “You don’t need papers for voting!”

    They’re both right. But you just aren’t supposed to SAY it.

  148. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan Governor’s debate.
    .
    https://www.woodtv.com/live-streaming-video
    .
    I know everyone wants to watch.

  149. Wes says:

    85 million-year-old sea monster found in Kansas.
    .
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/85-million-year-old-sea-monster-found-in-kansas
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    Walt’s pet when he was a kid?

    It might have been his pet, but Walt was already a couple of billion years into adulthood when that thing was born, Elmer.

  150. mnw says:

    AZ-01

    Looks to me like Rogers (R) is likely to win. As DW noted, she released a second internal showing her up +7 points. Her previous internal showed her +3. Rogers is a Trumpista running for an open seat.

    There are no other polls, I believe, and AZ-01 is WAY below DW’s magic line.

    She’s a good candidate, btw. AF vet & VERY photogenic.

    It’s AF chick month in AZ, apparently. Off we go, into the wild blue yonder.

  151. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Have found that Brazilians in the U.S. have similar political leanings as Cubans. In the recent Brazilian elections, over 10,000 expatriate
    Brazilians voted in two cities, Miami and Boston, which have large Brazilian populations. Here is the breakdown between the right and left wing candidates.

    Miami 81% Bolsonaro, 3% Haddad;
    Boston 80% Bolsonaro, 6% Haddad

  152. EML says:

    I understand where we’re at…certain to lose seats with an unpopular president in a midterm election…especially in suburban areas…but I do wonder if we are in for some unexpected pleasant suprises. We are still in the middle of the realignment. MN-01 and MN-08 are looking like pick ups. Maybe some long time Dem seats that are “off the board” are ready to flip…MN-07, WI-03, NH-02, CT-05, IA-01/02, IL-17, even MI-05, MI-09, and PA-17. It wouldn’t surprise me to pick up one or more even in a ‘wave’ election.

  153. Mr.Vito says:

    Ezra Klein
    ?Verified account @ezraklein

    You should listen to the season finale of Slow Burn. Juanita Broadrick’s allegations against Bill Clinton are credible and horrifying, and hearing her tell the story is a gut punch.

    Ezra Klein
    ?Verified account @ezraklein
    8h8 hours ago

    And @leoncrawl fills in a part of the history I didn’t know: the role the allegations played in the House impeachment vote, even though they weren’t part of the articles of impeachment the House was voting on. Today they surely would have been, and Clinton wouldn’t have survived.
    50 replies 82 retweets 345 likes

  154. mnw says:

    EML

    AZ-01! See 155 above.

  155. NYCmike says:

    Ezra WOKE up?

  156. Mr.Vito says:

    NRO Editors:

    “An angry crowd at a town hall is protest, even when it is vulgar or unruly. Protest is part of democracy. But stalking and assault are not protest. Arson is not protest. The destruction of property is not protest.

    This is terrorism — the attempt to instill in people the fear of physical harm or death in the service of a political agenda.”

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/10/democrats-mob-tactics-violence/

  157. EML says:

    MN-08 embarassing VA-10 in terms of level of engagement. MN-08 passing 250 responses in less than 9000 calls. VA-10 over 20,000 calls and less than 200 responses.

  158. Mr.Vito says:

    Classy…

    Mark Roberts
    ?Verified account @RobertsforCD2
    US House candidate, OR-2
    Replying to @DLoesch

    Why do you show up in my feed? You’re like watching an old tv documentary on skinheads from the 90s. I’d bet you’re not even a gun owner.

  159. NYCmike says:

    The more Oregon protests, the more I think Mr. Straw will get his dream of “Watch out for Oregon!”.

  160. lisab says:

    Vandals Smash Windows, Deface Doors of Metropolitan Republican Club in Manhattan

    “Tonight, we put the Republican Party on notice,” the letter begins, labeling McInnes a “hipster-fascist clown” and accused the club members of “treachery against humanity.”

    “Our attack is merely a beginning. We are not passive, we are not civil, and we will not apologize,” the letter continues. “Those of good conscience and clear mind know this state of oppression cannot remain.”

  161. mnw says:

    Vito 164

    Boy, he could not BE more wrong about her being a firearm owner! She originally came to public attention as an outspoken pro-2A gun owner, & how! She goes to the range regularly, too.

    She’s a pistol-packing’ mama.

  162. NYCmike says:

    ““Our attack is merely a beginning. We are not passive, we are not civil, and we will not apologize,” the letter continues. “Those of good conscience and clear mind know this state of oppression cannot remain.””

    -“state of oppression” = Getting up and working every day?

    I guess Trump is oppressing them!

  163. NYCmike says:

    Kershaw spittin’ the bit in the playoffs, once again.

  164. mnw says:

    NYC 169

    Those people have jobs like I have Olympic gold medals!

    RE: the pastor whom Turkey freed today, after 2 years:

    Nobody here, so far as I know, pays the slightest attention to Ralph Reed & the Christian Coalition. That doesn’t mean those good people are not THERE– they just don’t dress up like Handmaids, or scream at people in restaurants.

    My point being, the release of that pastor, after 2 yrs, is a big deal for them. Zero couldn’t spring him. Guess who did?

    Nice little enthusiasm motivator for religious conservatives, at the perfect time, eh?

    Ralph Reed was recently heard from, about a month ago, saying that Beto beating Cruz was “a crock.” That was when Beto’s campaign was at its zenith.

  165. JeffP says:

    Walker +2 in Marquette poll today. Cool.

  166. Cash Cow TM says:

    Results of trial of WV SC justice by federal prosecutors.

    “West Virginia Supreme Court Justice Allen Loughry guilty on 11 counts and not guilty on 10. The jury could not decide on the one remaining count.”

  167. Cash Cow TM says:

    “Wes says:
    October 12, 2018 at 7:49 pm
    85 million-year-old sea monster found in Kansas.
    .
    https://www.foxnews.com/science/85-million-year-old-sea-monster-found-in-kansas
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    Walt’s pet when he was a kid?

    It might have been his pet, but Walt was already a couple of billion years into adulthood when that thing was born, Elmer.”
    #############################

    Walt said to tell you he heard those remarks… and added for both of you to get off his lawn.

  168. walt says:

    Was at an event this evening where U.S. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito was present to give a few words about what is going on in D.C.

    She called me “Walt”, said I am looking no-stressed…I gave her a hug, even though her husband Charlie was there.

  169. Cash Cow TM says:

    Can you believe Walt just came in and grabbed the laptop from my hooves?!?

    RUDE!

  170. mnw says:

    Cow

    Someone took a photo of Gov. Justice last Christmas, but I can’t post it. It’s still printing.

  171. Bitterlaw says:

    Pretty exciting HS football tonight. My daughter’s school took the undefeated rival to overtime. They scored a touchdown and kicked the extra point. The other team then scored a TD on its possession. Rather than kick to tie and keep OT going, they went for 2 and made it for the win. Bold move but it paid off.

  172. MichiganGuy says:

    Cruz says he’s willing to participate in debate with O’Rourke on CNN.
    .
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news-campaigns/411233-cruz-willing-to-participate-in-cnn-debate-with

  173. Cash Cow TM says:

    Well, tonight Martinsburg High School feetsball team tied the State record for most consecutive wins by drubbing 9th ranked Hedgesville (where the old man worked and where is graduated from) 69 – 3.

    I think it is 37 consecutive wins…

    And MHS is not even ranked #1 AAA team in the State. they are at #2.

  174. Cash Cow TM says:

    “mnw says:
    October 12, 2018 at 11:07 pm
    Cow

    Someone took a photo of Gov. Justice last Christmas, but I can’t post it. It’s still printing.”
    ************************************
    YOU ARE STILL BEING BAD!!!

    Justice is a billionaire and the richest person in WV. Hard to believe.
    Walt is a good friend of another former State legislator who went to high school in Southern WV with Justice and is on first name basis with him.

  175. Mr.Vito says:

    Stop calling us mobs….

    or we’ll come after you.

    Signed,

    The mob.

  176. dblaikie says:

    Frankly I believe averaging in polls is counter-productive. It is silly to give the same weight to adult, registered voters and likely voters. In adult and registered voter polls a huge portion of the sample doesn’t even vote. If you are going to average that needs to be taken into account. A poll is meant to be a snap shot of the electorate that has a very short time where it actually means something. So having polls in an average that are more than a week old is garbage that produces a garbage result. Averaging bogus polls with reputable polls only muddies the water about what is actually going on with the electorate. In other words throwing Maxon Dixon polls and Seltzer polls into an average is degrades them.
    I could go on but when posters say that they only depend on using poll averages they simply don’t know what they are doing. That goes for pundits too.

    Leave a Reply

  177. MichiganGuy says:

    THIS IS THE BEST THING YOU WILL WATCH ALL DAY!!! @PressSec
    .
    https://twitter.com/freedom_moates/status/1033022545275092993
    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    You guys need to stop pretending like you have lives. Now start posting.

  178. mnw says:

    dbl

    I agree. Why “average” Ann Selzer with rubbish?

    MG 184

    That is funny.

  179. MichiganGuy says:

    POLK COUNTY, Fla. (WFLA) – A week-long undercover sting targeting human trafficking and online prostitution in Polk County ended with 277 arrests that included doctors, pharmacists and law enforcement officers.

    “That’s the most we have ever arrested in the history of the sheriff’s office,” Sheriff Grady Judd said.
    .
    https://www.nbc4i.com/amp/news/u-s-world/doctors-and-cops-among-277-arrested-in-human-trafficking-online-prostitution-sting-in-florida/1096287648

  180. mnw says:

    PA-01:

    The NYT/Siena poll in progress (& almost complete) has Wallace (D-antisemite) up +15 points over Fitzpatrick (R). Fitzpatrick recently released an internal showing him +8 over Wallace. Monmouth recently had Fitzpatrick +4, I believe.

    Wallace is a self-funder with a big FR advantage. The Wise Men posit that this race may gave somehow turned on a dime in Wallace’s favor.

  181. Wes says:

    My current Senate projections sans Tossup category:

    Solid R Hold-

    UT
    WY
    NE
    TN
    MS (1)
    MS (2)

    Likely R Hold-

    AZ
    TX

    Lean R Hold-

    NV

    Likely R Pickup-

    ND
    MO

    Lean R Pickup-

    FL

    Lean D Hold-

    MT
    IN
    WV

    Likely D Hold-

    NM
    MN (2)
    WI
    OH
    NJ

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    WA
    CA
    MN (1)
    MI
    VA
    MD
    DE
    PA
    NY
    CT
    RI
    MA

    Solid I Hold-

    VT
    ME

  182. Phil says:

    188

    Unfortunate. That is the type of district we needed to hold to have any chance whatever to keep the House.

  183. Phil says:

    Wes, can you give me your thinking on the Arizona senate race. I just looked over at 538 and Silver still has if projected as an almost two point Democratic win for the “moderate” Democratic candidate.

  184. mnw says:

    Phil

    I think Fitzpatrick (R) is still likely to win in PA-01. I checked & Monmouth DOES/DID have Fitzpatrick +4 recently. Wallace (D) is SUCH a reptile.

  185. Wes says:

    My current gubernatorial rankings, also sans Tossup:

    Solid R Hold-

    ID
    AZ
    NE
    TX
    AR
    TN
    AL
    SC
    MD
    MA

    Likely R Hold-

    WY
    SD
    VT
    NH

    Lean R Hold-

    NV
    OK
    OH

    Likely R Pickup-

    AK

    Lean D Pickup-

    NM
    WI
    ME

    Likely D Pickup-

    IL
    MI

    Lean D Hold-

    OR
    CO
    RI

    Likely D Hold-

    CT

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    CA
    MN
    PA
    NY

  186. Wes says:

    I’m factoring in all the revelations McSally has made about what Sinema said in the past about the state, Phil. Polls did reflect a small Sinema edge for awhile. Then recently the Dem internal for the gubernatorial candidate had a tie while an independent poll said McSally was up 6.

    That combined with the fact that Ducey will win big has made me comfortable with putting AZ-Sen in Likely R Hold territory.

  187. Tina says:

    21h
    SPYGATE: How Obama administration officials colluded with the campaign of Hillary Clinton and foreign governments to affect the outcome of the elections. A map of all the #Spygate connections. See more theepochtimes.com/spygate-the-tr… pic.twitter.com/WZ3XEYDbFr
    View photo ·

  188. Redmen4ever says:

    Wes – based on my moving averages (some of which may be stale), and the following observations (1) Hispanics are breaking our way, (2) suburban whites are breaking their way, here’s what I say:

    Prob R – ND
    Lean R

  189. BayernFan says:

    I wish I could offer more insight into Indiana. I think GOP voters are “coming home” as it were and are getting more and more enthused. Donnelly was clearly trying to woo GOP voters. Then he was a NO and got blindsided by the FBI thing. He didn’t want to jeopardize funding from donors. I said a year ago that if a credible GOP candidate ran and was well funded the GOP should win. Young beat Bayh by a lot 2 years ago, after Bayh led in polls.

    So here we are. If I had to say, I think Donnelly gets pulled down in the undertow of a building red current like Bayh did.

    We’ll know early enough on 11/6..about 7:30 ET.

  190. Wes says:

    Eliminating Tossups meant I had to pick a side for each seat, Bay. I wanted to put it on the GOP side, but since the most recent empirical data I had said Donnelly was slightly ahead, I gave it to him. That doesn’t mean Braun can’t win. He’s been on the upswing lately and certainly has a chance.

  191. BayernFan says:

    Biden is in Hammond, IN, a big Democrat AA area. That says something to me. Pence is in Indy, also a solid D area with a solid 35% GOP floor. Trump has gone to working class areas like Elkhart. idk if he’s scheduled to come back.

  192. Diamond Jim says:

    CC

  193. Redmen4ever says:

    Wes – based on my moving averages (some of which may be stale) in Senate races, and the following two observations (1) Hispanics are breaking our way, (2) suburban whites are breaking their way, here’s what I say:

    Prob R – ND
    Lean R – TN, TX (both should be Prob R)
    Toss – FL, IN, MO, NV (we win at least 3)
    Lean D – AZ, MT (we win at least 1)
    Prob D – NJ

    net pick-up: 2 to 4

    We’ve been winning the news cycle every day since the K. Hearings got underway. We have some real momentum rounding the curve and heading into the homestretch.

  194. BayernFan says:

    no worries, Wes. I’m just trying to read the tea leaves.

    Heres another one……

    a couple weeks ago D precinct committeewoman came by. e told her we are Republicans, that we’ve never had a committeeman come by before, we chatted about the nice weather….and sash was leaving, she turned around and asked “btw, any chance either of you can vote for Donnelly?” I gave her the OK sign and said “zero chance”. this is a solid Dem 65/35 area.

    Also on the next-door app the Dems are hawking Donnelly yard signs.

  195. Bitterlaw says:

    My boss is annoyed with me because I do not use all of my vacation days. They do not carry over to the next year so I will lose 14 days. When I am away from work I am more stressed thinking about whT might be going on at work. I am the only person in my company who ever asked to have their work phone activated for a vacation in Europe so I could see and respond to e-mails and calls. I am a rare combination – an unsuccessful workaholic.

  196. BayernFan says:

    205-201 now per RCP.

    24.5 seat Dem gain

    GOP is closing

  197. lisab says:

    new slogan

    “jobs not mobs”

  198. NYCmike says:

    Between the good economy, the new FREE TRADE agreements being worked out, the Kavanaugh hearing and confirmation vote, the pastor being released, and then Hillary and others having their clearances revoked…….what more do conservatives, evangelicals, and Republicans, even those so-called like “CG”, Robbie, MD and Author, need to get out and vote for the Republican party nominee?

    Most independents, I would think, would also be happy with many of those issues.

  199. Tina says:

    Bl, 14 days are a lot.

    Can you take some more days off before the end of the year?

    Maybe you can do half days, if allowed?

  200. NYCmike says:

    Bitterlaw,

    Why don’t you take days off, and go meet up with Democratic protesters? Maybe you can drum up some business while “protesting” with them? I am sure you or someone else in your firm, as lawyers, could figure out some sort of angle to use.

  201. Cash Cow TM says:

    Bitter is a dedicated worker for his employee.

    MG–THAt was a funny video!

  202. Gelt Goose says:

    Honk.

  203. sandiegocitizen says:

    205. If the Republicans hold the House as well as the Senate, the Democratic meltdown will be ugly.

    Trump is exercising restraint on twitter.

  204. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    From RRH:

    “Also the CLF(GOP PAC) polled 20 CDs and found 6 in which the GOP House candidate is now strong enough to be considered out of the danger zone: Barr- Ky, Bost-Ill, Davis-Ill, Hurd-Tx, Mast-Fla, Katko-NY.”

    mnw is a genius with his Bost(R-IL) prediction a few months back.

  205. Wes says:

    That’s good, Sheep. It indicates Dems are regressing rather than progressing in their fight to retake the House.

    That will make Pelosi the Joe Martin of the Democrats.

  206. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is re-polling Hurd, Coffman, and the open NJ-11 seat.

  207. Mr.Vito says:

    “polled 20 CDs and found 6 in which the GOP House candidate is now strong enough to be considered out of the danger zone”

    That’s either good news or bad news for the GOP depending on which seats the other 14 were.

  208. Mr.Vito says:

    The Denver Post endorsed Coffman yesterday.

  209. NYCmike says:

    “That’s either good news or bad news”

    -Charles Dickens LIVES!

  210. NYCmike says:

    https://spectator.us/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi/

    -There are more twists and turns in this story than a Le Mans 24 hour road race.

  211. Mr.Vito says:

    So, I just got a alert on my phone for Bay County that says where food and water is being distributed.

    I don’t know if that is coming through the State or the Federal alert system.

    Interesting though.

  212. Bitterlaw says:

    Tina- 1/2 days are just as stressful. I have days with nothing on the calendar but I won’t take off.

  213. Mr.Vito says:

    In the off-chance someone happens to be here that needs the info…

    BAY COUNTY FOOD AND OR WATER SITE ROSENWALD MIDDLE SCHOOL 924 BAY AVE PANAMA CITY

    Thoughts and prayers to our Panhandle neighbors.

  214. Mr.Vito says:

    *On

    In case there are any grammar na.zis lurking.

    GFY

  215. Memphis says:

    Very scary NYC.

    Long time observer and reader of this blog (since 2004 election) but never posted. Always enjoy the banter and expert analysis (Polaris included).

  216. Mr.Vito says:

    I watched Hillary lose again last night while cleaning the house. Good times.

    Anyway, there was a tidbit in there that may explain why the GOP did not give up on VA-10. Apparently, Comstock’s internal polls had her tied in 2016. She won by 6.

    Her internal last week had her up 1, even though public polling shows a moderate lead for Wexton.

    I’m assuming she will lose, but perhaps that explains some things.

  217. dblaikie says:

    Boy I am sure glad that Beto has soaked up all those millions of dollars. Talk about pouring money down a dry hole! I can imagine where the money came from — idiots.

    By the way, I feel James is surging beneath the radar in the Michigan Senate Race. After living in Michigan for 15 years I have learned that even though I don’t trust polls Mitchell Research is one that I always take seriously. James has cut Debbie’s lead according to them by half. I tell you what she better get the folks in Wayne County to vote big time from 8 mile road through Del Ray. And if James being African American cuts into her Detroit vote just a little that is trouble. And with the economy humming along even though the Downriver will go Dem. it will be closer than Debbie would like.

    In short Michigan still leans Democrat, but it is in play.

  218. Mr.Vito says:

    The Mitchell poll, I believe, is the one I was tracking during the last month to conclude that Michigan was going to be close on election day by looking at the internals for absentee vote versus election day votes. It showed narrowing among absentees but still a wide election day gap.

  219. Mr.Vito says:

    I like the picture on FOXNEWS of the pastor that was freed from Turkey praying for Trump.

  220. Blobbie says:

    It would be so much better if Trump had lost,

    then we could have real republicans running this election. The kind of republicans that would appeal to mainstream voters like Antifa.

  221. Wes says:

    I would have to see actual evidence before I concluded James has a chance, DB. Everything indicates a Dem blowout statewide in the Wolverine State. Sadly Debbie Stabenow is no Hillary Clinton and has always been a tough campaigner. I used to live in Michigan too, and I’ve always been appalled at how the Senate seats are usually Dems’ for the asking.

    If Hillary were President I think James would have Stabenow in a Tossup predicament. With Trump as President and all indications pointing to a great year for Dems in the state constitutional races, I just don’t see it.

  222. BayernFan says:

    Why is Trump in Richmond KY (outside Lexington)?

  223. Robbottie says:

    Barr

  224. Wes says:

    Two words: Andy Barr.

  225. Mr.Vito says:

    Also… close to Cincinnati and southern Indiana

  226. dblaikie says:

    Wes, I still think the state leans Democrat. However, the Mitchell poll shows something is going on there. I lived in Allen Park for 15 years and learned the lay of the land. Democratic strength is in the downriver blue collar communities like Taylor, Southgate, and Lincoln Park. And of course Detroit will give 90% of its vote to the Democrat. MacComb tilts Dem. but it is not as blue as the downriver. With the exception of Ann Arbor and Lansing the rest of the State is GOP.

    Trump is the kind of a person who appeals to the labor strength in the downriver. In addition the new Free Trade agreement is a great deal for the Auto Workers. The debacle in 2008 made these folks far less loyal to the Steel Workers and Auto Workers. And James is a decorated veteran which plays well those communities.

    The big question is Wayne? Will any of the huge African American population change their vote because James shares their heritage. In the past I would say no, but things are much better in Detroit during these past two years. If James could get a 5 point swing in Wayne County he could pull it out.

    Of course Ann Arbor and Lansing being University cities are going to be strong for Debbie.

    Having said all this, I say again, Michigan is leaning Democrat but it is in play.

  227. Mr.Vito says:

    On this date in 2016 Clinton led Trump by 11.4 in the RCP average of Michigan.

    It can close fast, but I think we would need to start seeing the evidence within the next two weeks.

  228. dblaikie says:

    Don’t want to make more of it than it is, but cutting the lead in half with 3 weeks to go shows evidence of movement. However, I don’t trust any poll so it could be bogus.

  229. Mr.Vito says:

    Keep comparing the Mitchell polls, db, and see if the internals continue to improve even if the topline doesn’t change much. I’m sure they will do at least two more.

  230. DW says:

    I can see why the GOP stopped funding TX_23, Hurd up there in Siena’s poll so far 54/33.

  231. DW says:

    No real added data or reason today, but Silver just moves harder in the Dem direction today on his 538 forecast, just because he can.

  232. Mr.Vito says:

    Two ABC Senior executives according to DailyMail

    ‘We didn’t think it through properly. What Roseanne did was wrong but we shouldn’t have rushed to fire her. It was almost a knee-jerk reaction by Ben [Sherwood] and Channing [Dungey] who should have launched an investigation,’ one insider said.

    ‘This would have given them more time to listen to the public, advertisers and cast members to determine the best decision.’

  233. Mr.Vito says:

    Regarding the story from Stephen Miller’s now-fired third grade teacher…

    HuffPost
    ?Verified account @HuffPost

    We’ve updated the story to focus on the teacher’s suspension, rather than her initial comments. A public figure’s behavior as a child is not by itself newsworthy, and we regret having treated it as such.
    12:08 PM – 12 Oct 2018

  234. Mr.Vito says:

    Rick is pi$$ed.

    Rick Scott
    ?Verified account @ScottforFlorida
    US Senate candidate, FL

    .@SenBillNelson regarding your slanderous attacks on me & my wife- do you think my wife can’t manage her money without me? Do you think a woman can’t manage her own money? It’s disgusting you’d accuse us of breaking the law– you’re so desperate to remain a career politician.
    5:17 PM – 4 Oct 2018

  235. Mr.Vito says:

    That’s from last week, by the way… I hadn’t seen the quote until today.

  236. Wes says:

    Deborah Ross tried a similar tactic against Richard Burr in 2016, Vito. Burr called her out on it during a debate. She lost.

  237. Wes says:

    It’s amazing how Dems claim to be the “party of women” but then try to use women married to GOP pols as clubs against their opponents.

  238. mnw says:

    Sheep 213

    RE: Bost (R-inc) “out of danger” now in IL-12:

    Thanks, but it always seemed like a no-brainer to me.

    I know the players– esp the troll-beloved DEM nominee Brendan Kelly. The “strong candidate” “Navy vet” who has a GREAT chance of beating Bost, per corr-eee troll.

    That is why I’m always eager to hear reports from posters who are there watching it happen. Not trolls who surf the ‘Net & then think they’re somehow expert enough to publish a troll-blog!

    corr-eee troll did a quick Wiki search & posted some random garbage about Bost here. He didn’t know what he was talking about. Simple as that.

  239. Tina says:

    7h
    Why I’m encouraged. On Thursday FL Republicans had returned about 20,000 more absentee ballots than FL Dems. As of this morning, that gap has grown to +28,000 returned GOP ABs. twitter.com/johncardillo/s…
    View details ·

  240. mnw says:

    Our old friend rdel comments at RRH tonight about the political significance of Pastor Brunson’s release, & his appearance today with Trump at the WH.

    This is a really big deal for millions of religious conservative voters.

  241. mnw says:

    Trump said in KY tonight that, “Our slogan in 2020 will be ‘Keep America Great Again.’ ”

    Sure sounds like he’s running in ’20 to ME, but the trolls speculate, “NO.” And even if he does, he’ll dump Pence. Trollwisdom from Vichey!

  242. MikeKS says:

    We’ll have 56 Senators.

  243. MichiganGuy says:

    #249 mnw, as 1 of those millions I agree getting the pastor release is a big deal and will energize the Christian vote.

  244. MichiganGuy says:

    As far as the Michigan Senate race goes I don’t see James winning. Most people who aren’t political junkies in Michigan don’t even know who he is. That being said, There are 2 Senate debates scheduled for Sunday and Monday. He would have to do an amazing job in those debates to even have a chance at winning and I haven’t seen anyone win a debate against Stabenow.

  245. MichiganGuy says:

    OH Lt. Gov. Calls for Sen. Sherrod Brown to Resign Over Abuse Filings
    .
    http://insider.foxnews.com/amp/article/63648
    ———————————————————————————–
    Game changer?

  246. Wes says:

    Doubtful. Republicans have been trying to make hay out of this issue for decades. Each time Brown has trotted out his ex and weathered the storm. Barring some concrete proof Brown paid her off to further his political career, I can’t imagine Brown suffers for it this time.

  247. Bitterlaw says:

    It will be fun after the midterms. Robbie and his blue wave and DB and his red wave are both pretty far out on the edges. One is going to very wrong.

  248. lisab says:

    Hundreds of Hondurans head for US border in mass migration ‘march’: report

  249. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Romney at McSally rally saying he was not “NeverTrump”, Leftist press is outraged:

    “When Romney was asked what happened with his efforts to stop Donald Trump from becoming president in 2016, Romney denied being a leader in the so-called “never Trump” movement.
    “I don’t think that was the case,” Romney said.
    “President Trump was not the person I wanted to become the nominee of our party, but he’s president now. The policies he’s promoted have been pretty effective. And I support a lot of those policies. When there’s a place where I disagree, I point that out,” he said.”

  250. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    257. “Robbie and his blue wave and DB and his red wave are both pretty far out on the edges. One is going to very wrong.”

    Or they both could prove partially wrong and partially right. Maybe this will be a magenta wave.

  251. Messy says:

    Halfway through October and it’s cold. I blame Tina.

  252. dblaikie says:

    Bitter, the one thing I want to do is to provide fun after the midterms.

  253. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Washington Post/ ABC Poll shows the Congressional Generic Ballot, Registered Voters, at D+11, down from the D+14 a few weeks back. The PID is D+6 with the GOP vote at a low 28% of the total.
    Here is the real take-away from the pollster’s analysis:

    “Turnout and Overvote
    The Democrats, to be sure, also can find grounds to worry. Their support is strongest among minorities and young adults, groups that tend to have lower turnout in midterm elections. It’s also focused in urban areas, where the Democrats generally already control House seats; specifically, registered voters favor Democratic candidates by 63-31 percent in cities, vs. an essentially even 49-46 percent in suburbs and 44-53 percent in rural areas.

    That suggests a Democratic overvote in districts they already hold, and other evidence backs it up. In districts rated as solid or likely Republican by the ABC News Political Unit, Republican candidates lead by 55-40 percent. In districts rated as solid or likely Democratic, Democrats lead, by a much larger margin – 68-28 percent – more than they need in these locales. And in the 66 House districts rated as only leaning either way, or as tossups, it’s a 46-47 percent D-R race.”

  254. Toast says:

    O’ Rourke is Cruzin’ for a bruisin’.

  255. Chicon says:

    Sheeple – good catch. The pollster’s analysis is similar to what happened in the 2016 presidential election – national polls missed the state-by-state picture. Here it is possible – especially given the evolution of the electorate where liberals and conservatives don’t live in the same area as often – that national CGB polls miss the individual picture. This is what Wes has been trying to explain to Robbie.

  256. Wes says:

    I’m not having much success there, Chicon. Robbie is deadest on following national averages when, this not being a parliamentary system, the individual races will determine House control.

    The polling from the various competitive races has trended GOP—something not always reflected in the seesawing GCB polls.

  257. Chicon says:

    Wes – it has to be difficult to get a representative sample for the CGB polls – they need to balance urban, suburban, rural; geographic areas; gender; race, etc. Each subgroup needs enough responses to have statistical significance. Not easy – should be easier to poll one district.

  258. Tina says:

    Oct 13
    Replying to @mkraju
    Hillary Clinton: Robert Byrd (KKK leader) is my friend and MENTOR CNN: *Silence Obama: Jeremiah Wright (racist America hater) is my friend and mentor CNN: *Silence Trump: Robert E Lee a good general, Grant was better. CNN: *heads explode

    Is this where the Jebots are going this week?

  259. dblaikie says:

    For all the reasons stated above and for others that I have posted about averaging generic polls may be fun, but hardly predictive of the final vote.

  260. Bitterlaw says:

    http://www2.philly.com/philly/news/politics/elections/a-dilemma-for-new-jersey-democrats-an-unpopular-senator-or-trumps-gop-20181011.html

    Menendez will win. Wes to blame me in 3…2…1…*

    *I never voted for a Democrat when I lived in New Jersey. I have not lived in New jersey since 1994. I do not want to live in New Jersey. I just want to own a beach house in New Jersey – preferable between 33rd and 35th Streets on Central Avenue in Ocean City but I am not picky.

  261. Phil says:

    Good points. Individual races will be determining control of congress. In my own state it doesn’t matter how worked up the loons are in Lloyd Dogett’s Austin district and how big they run up the score. What matters are the races in Tx-7, 23, and 32.

    Overall, it depends on what happens in suburban districts throughout the country and those will be fought district by district.

  262. Bitterlaw says:

    Phil- How is your wife doing? How are you doing?

  263. Wes says:

    I want to hasten to add if polling in individual races trends toward the Dems, that is a bad sign. Thus far Republicans are holding their own in many of the competitive districts.

    Dems are absolutely guaranteed to make gains in the House—sorry, Dblaikie, that’s objectively the case based on available data—but it’s an open question as to whether they’ll win control of the chamber.

  264. mnw says:

    In reading about the Antifa situation in Portland (& elsewhere), it brings to my mind the memory of anti-KKK state laws which prohibited hiding one’s face in public.

  265. mnw says:

    P.S. to 274:

    So-called “anti-mask” statutes have been upheld by the courts more often than not, btw.

    Until it is shown to be otherwise, I conclude that the liberal establishments in places like Oregon have chosen to protect Antifa, at least passively.

  266. Test says:

    I passed.

  267. mnw says:

    MO SEN:

    https://t.co/VzUuUkKmnI

    A must-read if you’re interested in this race.

    If the link doesn’t work, it’s Josh Kraushaar at National Journal.

    Bottomline: Based on the Hawley campaign’s internal polling, GOP believes this race has moved their way recently. Base energized by Kavanaugh, they believe.

    Kraushaar is no GOP shill, that’s for sure.

  268. Mr.Vito says:

    Test says:
    October 14, 2018 at 11:08 am

    I passed.

    ……………..

    My condolences.

  269. Brandon says:

    I still cannot believe Seth Grossman is the Republican nominee in my district.

  270. Phil says:

    Bitter, we’re doing ok. Thanks.

  271. Wes says:

    One interesting takeaway I have from that article, Mnw, is that McCaskill is betting MO wants a check on Trump.

    In a narrow Trump state where the liberal vote combined exceeded Trump’s—such as MI—I could see that. In MO, I think McCaskill has a flawed campaign strategy.

  272. mnw says:

    Wes

    Agreed. Does not compute.

    However, her ads are all bipartisan-y right now. So, those ads are inconsistent with her supposedly trying to sell, “We need a check on Trump.”

    Every time I’ve heard her mention Trump, it’s always been about how often she’s supported him– esp on judges.

  273. Mr.Vito says:

    The media has sunk to a new low of dishonesty over the Trump speech in Ohio.

  274. Mr.Vito says:

    I hope Siena does AZ, MO, FL Senate next… IN too, if it’s feasible.

  275. Cash Cow TM says:

    Bad day yesterday.

    WVU lost to IA State.
    Shepherd Univ. feetsball team lost too

  276. Mr.Vito says:

    Forgot Montana… I guess if I could pick three of any of those, I’d pick MT, FL, AZ.

  277. Mr.Vito says:

    “Bad day yesterday.”

    Was Hillary President? no? good day, then.

  278. Test says:

    Test says:
    October 14, 2018 at 11:08 am

    I passed.

    ……………..

    My condolences.

    Good one.

  279. Tom says:

    Bitterlaw – could Antifa activists be charged under the RICO law?

  280. Chicon says:

    Not sure on RICO, but that group is a political gift that the Republicans should take better advantage of in November. In debates and interviews, candidates should be calling them a domestic terrorist organization and forcing the opponent to condemn or own them.

  281. Bitterlaw says:

    Tom – the lawyerly answer is….maybe. Here is an article on criminal and civil RICO,

    https://www.justia.com/criminal/docs/rico/

    It is not my area of law. Could Antifa be charged? Probably. Convicted? Doubtful.

  282. Bitterlaw says:

    SCOTUS would not apply RICO to pro-life group.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/27/us/supreme-court-voids-racketeering-conviction-of-anti-abortion-groups-in-80-scase.html

    I am not saying Antifa is like a pro-life group. I think Antifa would rely heavily on this case to argue for dismissal of the case.

  283. MichiganGuy says:

    Pennsylvania County Democratic Party Chairman Asked to Resign for “I Stand for the Flag” Facebook Post and for Defending Cop
    .
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/pennsylvania-county-democratic-party-chairman-asked-to-resign-for-i-stand-for-the-flag-facebook-
    ————————————————————————————-
    I’m amazed there are still people who love God and love our country still in the democrat party. #walkaway

  284. lisab says:

    Beto O’Rourke rides skateboard into rally

  285. lisab says:

    bitterlaw’s long lost aunt
    ———————–

    World’s oldest woman, 129, who says her long life is a punishment from God remembers the

    one happy day in her life

    – when she returned home after surviving a Stalin purge in World War Two

  286. lisab says:

    “Beto O’Rourke rides skateboard into rally
    ————————–

    video

    http://www.wfmz.com/news/beto-orourke-rides-skateboard-into-rally/806921777

  287. DW says:

    And predictably, Silver at 538 uses the ABC/Washington Compost poll as another excuse to push his predictions harder to the left. This against the evidence from individual polls of many of these seats.

  288. Robbie says:

    Right now, I think TX and TN are over. I’m not sure the former was ever really a race. I think the chances of holding one or both of AZ and NV have improved greatly since Labor Day.

    I also think Republicans are in great position to win ND and MO with some ease. According to Hotline Josh this morning, Republican strategists report MO is moving in the direction of ND.

    If it’s true MO is moving towards Hawley, then I think the main focus of the last three weeks should be AZ, NV, IN, and MT.

  289. DW says:

    From RRH:

    MosheM
    October 14, 2018 at 2:08 pm
    We used to get tons of state polls every Sunday this close to the election. Now? Silence.
    It really seems like that there are almost no polls other than the NYT/Siena.

    I predicted after the Kavanaugh hearings that polling would dry up if it started to favor the GOP. This way all there is in people’s minds is the CNN and ABC generic ballot polls.

  290. mnw says:

    Vicheytroll 2016: “Looks like Hillary may carry MO too!”

  291. Messy says:

    287. Was Trump president yesterday? yes. Bad day then.

  292. Mr.Vito says:

    “287. Was Trump president yesterday? yes. Bad day then.”

    Yes. Bad day for leftists.

  293. Tina says:

    Oct 1bill Mitchell
    Replying to @mkraju
    Hillary Clinton: Robert Byrd (KKK leader) is my friend and MENTOR CNN: *Silence Obama: Jeremiah Wright (racist America hater) is my friend and mentor CNN: *Silence Trump: Robert E Lee a good general, Grant was better. CNN: *heads explode

  294. mnw says:

    302 three iii’s:

    Remind us again why you believe that Ebola! flipped a U.S. national election?

    And how exactly Al Gore would’ve prevented 9/11?

  295. Tina says:

    6h
    According the media #FakePolls, the generic preference for Democrats has dramatically INCREASED after the Kavanaugh hearings. You just have to laugh at these clowns.

    Muh gcb.

  296. Tina says:

    Looks like 3 more rallies this week, after the very large Ky rally yesterday.

    At the Ky rally, Mitchie and Rand Paul were in attendance.

    Mitchie looks like he had a makeover.

    Turtle Power!

  297. Mr.Vito says:

    Can we all pitch in and get Messy one of these?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=55j8Rob6Tss

  298. Chicon says:

    Vito, Messy needs one of those, but the answer to your inquiry is…..no.

  299. DW says:

    Wow, its taken 35,275 calls in VA_10 to get just 361 responses. I guess people there don’t answer their phones unless they know who it is.

  300. mnw says:

    You’d have to play fair & get one for each of the other trolls too– Vichey; core-eee; Proud Obamacon, TIPW.

  301. Chicon says:

    DW – that’s not so good! The industry has some issues – in the case, is there something about the small population that doesn’t answer the phone that makes the sample less than representative of the electorate? I don’t know the answer to this question – I wonder if they do?

  302. mnw says:

    I’m surprised that Stacey Abrams is still hanging in there for GA gov. I would’ve thought she would be the sum of all fears for a state like GA.

  303. BayernFan says:

    No one answers their phones if they don’t know who is calling. Do you? That is what voice mail is for. No one I know has a land line. I haven’t had one for 7 years.

  304. Messy says:

    testing one two three….
    early voting in my state begins tomorrow. I’m going to do so…and go on a cruise in the Caribbean

  305. DW says:

    314 – I don’t normally, but when I knew Siena was polling VA_02 I certainly would have answered any unknown call in case it was them. They never called. But that raises another question about Siena–the fact that most polls are unknown until the results are announced. Are Siena’s polls off in either direction in part because they advertise when they are being conducted?

  306. Messy says:

    305. For some reason, the program won’t let me put up the many links (about 15 or so) that will prove my point.

  307. Bitterlaw says:

    I have a landline. It is a backup in case cell service goes down.

  308. Messy says:

    308. I’m going to vote early and spend three weeks toodling around the Caribbean. I will get my tickets for the opening of Congress in January and enjoy Nancy’s final term as speaker begin.

  309. Phil says:

    I have a better idea. Why don’t you just move to Venezuela and enjoy utopian socialism forever.

  310. Mr.Vito says:

    Final term? Bummer. The GOP will lose their biggest fundraiser.

  311. Tina says:

    Nbc apologizes for the Muh Lee hoax.

  312. mnw says:

    “toodling around the Caribbean”?

    “trolling around the Caribbean,” he means?

  313. Chicon says:

    Mnw, the Bears pulled an Akin today. Also, Saturday’s Blues/Hawks game looked like two former good teams who forgot what defense means. Exciting game, but not good…

  314. DW says:

    Coffman (CO_06) is tightening up the race a bit in Seina’s poll, now trailing the Drat 46/41. Was down ten points about an hour ago.

    The first time Siena polled this seat a month ago the end result had Coffman losing 52/38.

    So maybe this seat isn’t dead after all.

  315. DW says:

    Stauber (R) still killing it in MN_08 leading by 17 points in Siena’s poll.

  316. DW says:

    same margin for Schweikert in AZ_06 – 17 point lead

  317. Wes says:

    Messy still hasn’t explained why if Ebola cost the Dems the 2014 elections, THE DAY BEFORE IT HIT, Nate Silver declared the GOP was likely to win the Senate.

  318. DW says:

    That’s where the good news ends in the Siena polling going on…NJ_11 seems a lost cause, and Comstock down 9 points in VA_10.

  319. Wes says:

    Once Stewart won the Senate primary Comstock became a political Dead Woman Walking, DW.

  320. DW says:

    I am still mystified as to why anyone would have generic ballot polling as a major portion of their house race formula. We have never had this many polls of individual house races. Only VA_05, PA_08 and NV_04 sitting out there without a poll. Many competitive seats have three or four polls. Many have a mixture of release from both campaigns.

    I have a regular job by which I make my living, but if I developed a prediction model for a living, I would look at fund raising, spending, polling of individual races, candidate quality, and local demographics along with district trending as predictive tools long before the national generic ballot.

    If 2016 taught us anything, it taught us that national numbers don’t mean much for local results.

  321. DW says:

    330 – Yeah, I think you might have made that point once or twice here.

  322. Wes says:

    Unfortunately it was the only logical conclusion to reach.

  323. Mr.Vito says:

    How nice of Siena to discover every tossup is actually a blowout in one direction or the other.

    Maybe we won’t need an election.

  324. Chicon says:

    DW & Wes, do you think Comstock would’ve lost if Stewart were not the nominee?

  325. Chicon says:

    Vito – I’m not the expert some here are, but something seems off in the Siena polls.

  326. ReadyFirst says:

    In the meantime, the Republican absentee ballots keep pouring in. #248 Tina, great find!

  327. Mr.Vito says:

    Messy is taking the leftist cruise. Some excursions include appliance-boat rides in Cuba, Hillary’s Haitian shantytown, screaming at the sky for the Puerto Rican 3000 killed by Hurricane Drumpf, and lastly, a speech entitled “The Spark of Divinity” at the Playa del Carmen– dinner and a beheading to follow. The ship will embark at half capacity so everyone can bring an undocumented immigrant back with them.

  328. Wes says:

    Chicon, this being Trump’s midterm, Wexton had a good chance of winning anyway. However, as an inoffensive nominee with a good profile for the state, Freitas wouldn’t have dragged Comstock down—at least not so much as Stewart.

    The race would have been competitive at least. With Stewart as the nominee poised to lose in a blowout not only in the district but statewide, Comstock really has no chance in a heavy Dem district against a solid opponent with no gaffes to disqualify her when Wexton has the advantage of Kaine’s coattails.

    With Freitas as the nominee, I would have considered VA-10 to be a Tossup. With Stewart as the nominee, Comstock has much to deep a hole to have a realistic chance of digging out of.

  329. EML says:

    Coffman still behind in NYT CO-06 poll, but for a supposedly sure Dem pickup, it is surprisingly close.

  330. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-14-2018:
    Rep-149,205 Dem-118,894 Other-1,866 NPA-57,400 Total-327,365 As of-10/14/2018 7:25AM

    No blue wave yet Brah! Keep dreaming Messy.

    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  331. Wes says:

    Too* deep.

  332. Wes says:

    You and I really need to get jobs as political analysts, DW. We’ve been some of the best election handicappers on here the last few cycles. Not perfect but certainly knowledgeable and astute.

  333. ReadyFirst says:

    You do a great job here Wes! I see better analysis here than probably any other place on the web.

  334. Wes says:

    We’re a bunch of political junkies here, RF. I don’t make any secret of my personal political views, but when I analyze races I prefer to get things right rather than make myself feel better regardless of my personal feelings.

    Most others here are like that.

    It’s a big contrast to RRH—where it seems 90% of the content is DNC cheerleading and eeyoring of GOP chances.

    To wit, RRH at one point declared Dems were going to pick up 100 seats this cycle. That’s an unrealistic number either party has only achieved or come close to twice in the country’s history.

  335. Wes says:

    For the record, much as I savage Robbie for his endless predictions of doom and gloom, I do think the House is very much in play.

    Looking at the local races though rather than some nebulous national average, I don’t consider a flip a foregone conclusion whereas I never once considered the Senate to be remotely likely to change hands.

  336. ReadyFirst says:

    Wes, agreed. At this point I view the house as a coin flip (maybe with a hair of an edge now to the GOP thanks to Kav). I remember reading HHR in the old days before 2008. It seems like several of the overly optimistic posters here just took their show over to RRH. I don’t go there, but I enjoy reading the sitreps from people like you and mnw. It gives me enough of a flavor. I don’t like reading sunshine posts, or for that matter, ridiculous doom and gloom garbage. I like facts, and a sensible appraisal. I think most here learned a good lesson from 2008, we can and do lose at times.

  337. JulStol says:

    For whatever reason, Hal seems to have perma-blocked any posts from my phone. Strange. Anyway, as of Friday night, I’m officially married.

    Honeymoon will be another Halloween in Salem.

  338. Bitterlaw says:

    Congratulations, Jul. I hope you have many happy years together.

  339. Messy says:

    Serious question: What is RRH?

  340. mnw says:

    MN SEN & GOV:

    from Change Research Polling:

    Klobuchar (D) +9.

    Tina Smith (D) 46-43 over Houseley (R).

    Walz (D) 47-44 over the (R) for Gov.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dpflt_gUcAA3id4.jpg:large

  341. Albert Hodges says:

    I will agree with others here, you guys provide BRILLIANT election analysis….much better than anywhere else on the internet or even tv for that matter.

    Now when it comes to other discussions, this place is a playground that isnt designed for types like me BUT I dont think that neither you guys nor I would want me to start hanging out here anyway!

    Please keep the campaign dissections and updates coming…you guys are great!

  342. mnw says:

    351 link sb “UcAA2id4”

    link at RRH in comments if my link fails

  343. Wes says:

    Those numbers seem a bit too GOP friendly for Minnesota, Mnw. I’d like to get some confirmation.

  344. Mr.Vito says:

    One thing that would line up with that tightening is Siena claiming the GOP up 16 in MN-08 and well outside MOE at the moment.

  345. Dylan says:

    MN seems to always be just too blue a nut for the GOP to crack. Pawlenty didn’t help with his milquetoast position in face of the Al Franken shenanigans in 2008. Tina Smith is very unimpressive. she should be vulnerable but not gonna happen.

  346. mnw says:

    I’ve contributed to Houseley, altho not recently, & always thought she could be the sleeper surprise of ’18. I did say “sleeper,’ pls note, but I still feel that way.

    One reason the GOP always falls short in MN is the pernicious effect of the Minneapolis Star’s (aka “The Red Star”) infamous “Minnesota Poll,” which always shows the GOP getting wiped out, & then the GOP always loses by a much smaller margin than predicted. This is a voter suppression strategy, & that newspaper has run that play successfully for years.

    Vito 355

    Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.

  347. jason says:

    Serious question: What is RRH?”

    Real Red Hedgehog

  348. jason says:

    this place is a playground that isnt designed for types like me”

    I commend Albert for having a lot more self awareness than others here.

  349. EML says:

    CO-06 now at 44D-42R. Coffman been pronounced dead the last 4 cycles. If this is a hold, Rs hold the House

  350. jason says:

    . I’m going to vote early and spend three weeks toodling around the Caribbean.”

    No reason to rush.

    You can vote when you get back.

  351. jason says:

    Messy, you should really try that remedial literacy program first before advancing to voting.

  352. Bitterlaw says:

    Carrie Underwood is ok but I preferred it when Pink sang the into to Sunday Night Football. Pink is an Eagles fan and looks like she would fight you in a parking lot.

  353. mnw says:

    three iii’s:

    jason is LYING TO YOU!

    RRH is actually Republican Reindeer Hunters

  354. Bitterlaw says:

    I have never supported early voting. It just seems designed to let lazy voters off the hook.

  355. mnw says:

    360 EML

    I agree… IF

    It’s my observation, based on the totality of individual House AND Senate polls since Kavanaugh, that something seems to have changed, at least slightly, in the GOP’s favor.

  356. Skippy says:

    Senate GOP Candidate Houseley (MN) is the Wife of the great former NHL Hockey Player Phil Houseley, who is a legend in his home state of Minnesota.

    Let’s just say this…Northern Minnesota, which is usually Democratic Party dominated will not be dominated by Tina Smith on election night.

    Not against Houseley.

  357. EML says:

    On the ground reporting from NY-22, a tossup CD.

    I travelled the district yesterday from Binghamton to Utica. In my neck of the woods (Binghamton), a lot of signs for Anthony Brindisi (D). As I went farther north, many more Claudia Tenney (R) signs.

    I believe Utica and rural areas will outweigh Binghamton pro Brindisi areas and give Tenney a very narrow win.

  358. mnw says:

    Skippy 367

    I’ve made the same point about Phil Houseley a couple of times here before:

    Held the record for most NHL goals scored by a U.S.-born player for decades. Head coach of the Sabres.

    I heard a rumor that hockey was quite popular in MN.

    There’s nothing to dislike about Karen Houseley, and a lot to like.

  359. Dylan says:

    I equate Tina Smith to Dick Blumenthal in 2010 in CT. There is NO reason a lackluster candidate like Da Nang Dick should have won that senate seat against Linda McMahon but CT is just too blue to send an R to the US Senate. Remember that awful clip of Blumenthal trying to explain how a job is created? he still won . . . . .

    Hope the Northern MN inhabitants like wives of hockey heroes.

  360. Skippy says:

    mnw

    It’s pretty much been decided Karen Housley will be the GOP candidate for Senate again in 2020 if she loses this November. Tina Smith won’t wear well on the voters. Housley is magnetic.
    Housely is going to do better in St. Paul and in Northern Minnesota than pretty much any GOP candidate..ever.

    This November will be difficult because Klobuchar should be able to drag Tina Smith across the finish line. But this won’t be the last of Housley.

  361. Bitterlaw says:

    The candidate’s husband played in the NHL? If that is the big hope, the race is lost.

  362. Skippy says:

    Bitterlaw,

    It’s not the “big hope” but it moves the needle.

    Phil Housley is a big deal in my beloved home state. Massive deal in St. Paul.

    Hockey is the religion of Minnesota.

    Karen Housley has the ability to connect when she talks.

    Tina Smith is heavy favorite because Klobuchar is running in her normal cycle.

    But remember the name Karen Housley for 2020 when Tina Smith runs alone.

  363. Dylan says:

    Maybe the MN voters will agree to split the ticket? That would be generous of them–give the far leftist 6 years but the moderate GOP lady a two year trial balloon.

  364. lisab says:

    congratulations julstol!

    i envy your halloween in salem!

  365. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 14, 2018 at 8:21 pm
    I have never supported early voting. It just seems designed to let lazy voters off the hook.

    Says the guy whose 2000 candidate would probably have lost if not for early voting because a large chunk of his early voters indicated they would have switched had they known about the DUI.

  366. Mr.Vito says:

    Doesn’t that support the premise that there should not be early voting?

  367. Wes says:

    Of course it does. I was just pointing out the hypocrisy.

  368. mnw says:

    373 BL

    I hope you don’t mischaracterize your opponent’s argument like that in your professional life.

    “played in the NHL” doesn’t cover the subject adequately.

    It’s called NAME RECOGNITION. Mickey Mantle and Gary Templeton both “played in the major leagues” too.

    Karen Houseley has a record of her own, commendable in my view, in the MN state senate as well.

  369. lisab says:

    a large chunk of his early voters indicated they would have switched had they known about the DUI.
    ———————
    how many early voteswere there in fl in 2000?

    florida’s early voter law was passed in 2004

  370. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is finished with

    PA-01: 50-43 D (D+7)
    MN-08: 49-34 R (R+16)

    Both flips. This is the first poll showing either seat flipping.

    PA-01 was Clinton+2 in 2016
    MN-08 was Trump+16 in 2016

  371. Chicon says:

    Mnw – the A-holes sometimes read things that aren’t actually there. Hallucinations in a way. It’s endearing after awhile. To some….

  372. Bitterlaw says:

    Zzzzzzzz. Wes voted for GWB in 2000 and 2004 because he adopted DailyKOS talking points.

  373. CG says:

    If there are enough die-hard Buffalo Sabres fans in Minnesota, it might be a big plus.

  374. Victrc says:

    Wes

    I did an in-depth analysis of Florida 2000, I went and did research from every election in western Florida from 1968 until 2000, analyzing voting trends and turnout.

    At the end of the paper (60 pages of data and analysis) I was able to demonstrate that GWB lost about 10,000+ votes from the networks announcing the polls were closed. This was verified by one of the nations top election projection professors (and ultra lib). Had the networks not announced that the polls were closed GWB would have won Florida by enough to ensure there would be no recount.

    Just an FYI…and not a commentary on GWB

  375. Victrc says:

    I should have explained, polls in the western panhandle are open for an extra hour from the rest of the state because it’s in the Centeal time zone. So many voters who vote late never cast their ballots.

  376. MikeKS says:

    Read that again, Michigan is the upset choice if you’re looking beyond the core races. James is closing on Stabenow fast as people realize who he is. When 40% don’t know and you’re within 9, watch out. The fact she agreed to debate tonight and tomorrow, and is now attacking him – shows they’re worried.

  377. CG says:

    Early voting in 2000 was nothing like it is today in terms of scope. It was mostly mail-in absentee voting.

    The “early voters” who might have voted right when the DUI story hit the media were perhaps influenced too as opposed to those who waited until Election Day.

  378. CG says:

    There certainly was evidence to suggest that voters in line in Florida panhandle, which was still voting, turned around and left after they heard the networks declared the state for Gore.

  379. Victrc says:

    Corey

    Since I wrote that paper there have been a half a dozen studies by independent researchers verifying my results and coming out with a number ranging from 8,000 to 12,000.

    Once you see voting patterns in the region it’s easy to detect.

    I analyzed the voting patterns of every county and district in the western part of the state. It’s was actually super interesting.

  380. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – Endorsements and relationships mean nothing to my vote. If the entire Eagles roster and coaching staff from the Super Bowl championship team endorsed a Democrat or were married to Democrats, I would still vote GOP. Maybe hockey fans are different.

  381. Bitterlaw says:

    Because should be before in 385.

  382. MichiganGuy says:

    #389 Mike did you watch the debate tonight? I did. He did ok but, you can tell he was a little nervous. Stabenow was very knowledgeable and didn’t have to look down at her notes. I will vote for James because he is a conservative but, I think Stabenow is doing a good job of getting federal money sent to Michigan for various projects. Here is a link to the debate.
    .
    https://www.9and10news.com/2018/10/14/watch-now-first-debate-for-u-s-senate-in-michigan/

  383. Mr.Vito says:

    The Kermit Gosnell Movie has a 99% audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes and cracked the Top10 at the box office.

    Maybe I’ll check it out… Andrew Klavan is one of the writers.

  384. MichiganGuy says:

    Minnesota
    Governor:
    .
    Walz (D) 47%
    Johnson (R) 44%
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Smith (D) 46%
    Housley (R) 43%
    .
    Klobuchar (D) 50%
    Newberger (R) 41%

  385. mnw says:

    MO SEN

    McCaskill +3 in MO state senate Dist. 22, per Remington (poll for Missouri Scout).

    This is southern STL County suburbs & northern Jefferson County– Gephardt/Russ Carnahan territory historically, which has long trended toward GOP.

    I would’ve expected Hawley to do better than this there.

    RRH has a link in the comments, or you could google Missouri Scout.

  386. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    365. “I have never supported early voting. It just seems designed to let lazy voters off the hook.”

    I have voted already by absentee ballot. Have voted at a polling station on election day maybe twice in my life.

  387. MichiganGuy says:

    The above poll is from Change Research.
    .
    https://tinyurl.com/ych7f3fm

  388. Mr.Vito says:

    Dave Wasserman
    ?Verified account @Redistrict
    Oct 13

    October polls: Dems mostly doing better than we thought in Clinton-won areas & Rs better than we thought in Trump-won areas.

    Could be Kavanaugh…but it could also be the same “base homecoming” we’ve seen in the final weeks of pretty much every election in the past decade.
    37 replies 224 retweets 755 likes

    Dave Wasserman
    ?Verified account @Redistrict

    This is awful for Senate Dems, who need to win every Clinton state + 11 Trump states for control.

    But it also probably limits upper gains for House Dems, since 47/69 competitive seats are Trump CDs. Dems still clear faves for control, but maybe not 79% as @FiveThirtyEight says.

  389. MikeKS says:

    I thought James did great tonight. My family is from Michigan so know a lot about the state. Looking forward to seeing his surge continue.

    And the Tina Smith / Housley numbers are great!

    There is a scenario – though slim – that the Republicans win 60 seats this year. I’m sticking with my 56 prediction, but 60 is like 2% chance, which isn’t 0.

    60 would mean hold everything plus:
    1. ND
    2. MT
    3. MO
    4. IN
    5. FL
    6. WV
    7. MN
    8. MI
    9. NJ

  390. Mr.Vito says:

    https://twitter.com/louforsenate/status/1051518020902899712

    Lou Barletta unhappy with Bob Casey claiming that he wants to take health care away from children with cancer. Apparently Lou had told Bob Casey that his own infant grandchild has cancer.

    Not sure what to make of any of that.

  391. Mr.Vito says:

    …other than that Bob Casey is a dbag, and Barletta really wants a gamechanger.

  392. Bitterlaw says:

    Casey is a fraud. He is running ads claiming he is bipartisan. Maybe when it comes to naming post offices but never on bills that matter.

  393. Bitterlaw says:

    Casey will win by 8-10.

    I know Phil has written off 4-5 House seats because of resisting in PA. I think those seats would be lost even under the old plan. The anti-Trump rage is still hot here in the suburbs. To many voters, the social issues motivate them more than the economy for a simple reason. They can afford to pay more taxes and/or absorb the effects of a less robust economy.

  394. DW says:

    BOOM

    VA_02

    Taylor (R-Inc) 50
    Luria (D) 43

    Christopher Newport Univ.

  395. DW says:

    Despite polling in FL_27 showing a ‘sure’ R to D flip slipping away from Dems, along with WA_08 where Rossi polled 10 points ahead of the D challenger that was supposed to flip it, and VA_02 mentioned above, along with Stauber in MN_08 now +15 over the drat in a D to R flip, the possibility that NV_03 or NH_01 might be a surprise D to R flip, and Coffman in CO_06 given up for dead suddenly closing, and NC_09, another R seat given up for dead that suddenly has polling showing the R ahead, despite all this and some I am probably forgetting, Silver writes up an article saying why the house is moving to the Dems, and updates his forecast to 81.5% chance of the house flipping, almost a record high in his model, while at the same time RCP is moving to a tossup for house control.

  396. mnw says:

    DW

    Silver is a d*khead DEM shill. Always & forever.

    NV-03: the same “bad, flawed” “perennial ” GOP candidate lost last time– by 1.28%. Nonetheless, at RRH, they treat NV-03 as a write-off, triage-worthy race.

  397. DW says:

    Also wanted to point out that the CNU poll of VA_02 had a robust sample size of 798 likely voters.

  398. DW says:

    If you go here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

    And scroll down to the forecasters, then scroll through the list of rankings keeping your eye on the 538 column, you can easily see how 538 is by far the most hostile to the GOP and most favorable to the Dems, even more than the Daily Kos predictions.

  399. DW says:

    BOOM!

    Emerson – NV Senate

    Heller 48
    Rosen 41

  400. DW says:

    and my first thought on that NV senate poll, I wonder what NV_03 and NV_04 look like, if someone would be so kind as to poll them.

  401. DW says:

    Chatted with someone recently who is convinced the Dems in 2020 will nominate Joe Biden. I don’t think so, for one, he will turn 76 years old next month. Granted, he appears to be in great health for someone 76, and would be 78 right after the 2020 election. That is probably stretching what voters are willing to consider in regards to age, and it would take Trump’s age (assuming Trump runs again) off the table as an issue.

    But more importantly, Biden would never survive the Dem primary. He would be portrayed as a ‘moderate voice’ even though he is a hardcore leftist, and the Dems are far more likely to nominate a Venezuela-style socialist far to the left of Obama.

  402. DW says:

    BOOM

    NV_03 and NV_04 are margin of error races according to Emerson

    NV_03

    Lee (D) 41%
    Tarkanian (R) 39%

    NV_04

    Horsford (D) 36%
    Hardy (R) 34%

    A lot of undecided in both of these considering three weeks to go.

  403. DW says:

    Also, be warned the sample sizes in NV_03 and NV_04 were just 178, 157, so take it for what its worth.

  404. DW says:

    Emerson also polled NH_01:

    Pappas (D) 40%
    Edwards (R) 35%

  405. Mr.Vito says:

    Ben Shapiro
    ?Verified account @benshapiro
    19m19 minutes ago

    Hilariously, Warren’s only Native American ancestor may have actually lived at the time of Pocahontas.

  406. Mr.Vito says:

    Michael Ahrens
    ? @michael_ahrens
    1h1 hour ago

    So Elizabeth Warren is *possibly* 1/1024 (0.09%) Native American.

    Scientists say the average European-American is 0.18% Native American. (https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/25/science/23andme-genetic-ethnicity-study.html …)

    That’d make Warren even less Native American than the average European-American.

  407. lisab says:

    BIOLOGICAL MALE WINS WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP IN WOMEN’S CYCLING

    A biological male who identifies as a transgender woman won a women’s world championship cycling event on Sunday.

    Rachel McKinnon, a professor at the College of Charleston, won the women’s sprint 35-39 age bracket at the 2018 UCI Masters Track Cycling World Championships in Los Angeles.

    McKinnon, representing Canada, bested Carolien Van Herrikhuyzen of the Netherlands and American cyclist Jennifer Wagner to take home the gold.

    McKinnon celebrated the victory on Twitter, writing: “First transgender woman world champion…ever.”