Biden Dominates Democratic Field for 2020

CNN released a new poll for the Democratic race for President and it shows Joe Biden more than doubling his nearest opponent in a bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination for President.

Joe Biden 33%
Bernie Sanders 13%
Kamala Harris 9%
Elizabeth Warren 8%
Cory Booker 5%
Michael Bloomberg 4%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Eric Holder 3%
Eric Garcetti 2%
Michael Avenatti 1%
Kirsten Gilibrand 1%
Amy Klobuchar 1%
Deval Patrick 1%
Steve Bullock 0%
John Delaney 0%

This poll was done October 4-7 among registered Democratic primary voters.

Posted by Dave at 6:25 am
Filed under: General | Comments (235)

235 Responses to “Biden Dominates Democratic Field for 2020”

  1. Wes says:

    Talk about starting early.

  2. Messy says:

    due (pronounced “doo-ay”

  3. EML says:

    The party of old white people. Trump set the record being inaugurated at age 70. Warren (71), Biden (78), Bloomberg (78), and Sanders (79) would all break that record.

  4. EML says:

    99% European, 1% American Indian. Claims to be a minority.

  5. Messy says:

    At this point in the cycle, the majority of future nominees were down in the single digits and a few of them were at 1%. So who knows?

  6. SoHope says:

    Lol….it said it suggests there was possibly one native American ancestor 6-10 generations ago.

    I am white as can be but did ancestry DNA and am 2% bantu african among other things. Can you imagine if I claim AA status to get preferential treatment and college scholarships meant for African Americans?

  7. SoHope says:

    Here is NC everyone claims to be part Cherokee, LITERALLY EVERYONE.

    Real native americans laugh at them.

  8. SoHope says:

    69% England
    17% Ireland & Scotland
    9% Germanic Europe
    2% Norway
    2% Bantu African

    Can I get away with making black jokes?

  9. Phil says:

    10 – only if you are a Democrat.

  10. Tom says:

    9. SoHope – LOL. My family is from the Morehead City area and my parents always told my brother and I we were part Cherokee.

  11. Barrett says:

    EML makes a really good point. Kamala Harris is 53 and Cory Booker is 49. And this poll has them both in single digits.

    Elizabeth Warren was lucky. She was caught in a lie about being native american, and proved herself “truthful” after the fact

  12. Barrett says:

    English 29%
    German – 24%
    Irish/Scottish 19%
    Russian – 15%
    Norway – 6%
    Polish – 5%
    Estonian – 2%

  13. Waingro says:

    #15, BOOM.

  14. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Add: Here is some additional information from the new Emerson College Podcast:
    1) In Nevada:
    a- Governor’s Race- Laxalt(R) +5; 45-40
    b- NV CD-3- Tarkanian(R) -2; 39-41
    c- NV CD-4- Hardy(R)-2; 34-36

    2) In NH:
    a- Governor’s Race- Sununu(R) +20
    b- NH CD-1- Edwards(R)-5; 40-45
    c- NH CD-2- Democrat +20

  15. mnw says:

    RAS today (Mon.): 51-49 (37-39)

    I don’t like Emerson. No respect. Hope they’re right, though. Wisdom can enter through any door.

    Nice to see that somebody finally polled NV-03. The conventional wisdom heretofore has been, Hardy (R): Good! Viable! Tark (R): Bad! Triage!

  16. DW says:

    The Emerson house polls of NV had sample sizes well under 200.

  17. DW says:

    Emerson also polled NH_01:

    Pappas (D) 40%
    Edwards (R) 35%

  18. DW says:



    Taylor (R-Inc) 50
    Luria (D) 43

    Christopher Newport Univ.

  19. DW says:

    From thread below:

    Chatted with someone recently who is convinced the Dems in 2020 will nominate Joe Biden. I don’t think so, for one, he will turn 76 years old next month. Granted, he appears to be in great health for someone 76, and would be 78 right after the 2020 election. That is probably stretching what voters are willing to consider in regards to age, and it would take Trump’s age (assuming Trump runs again) off the table as an issue.

    But more importantly, Biden would never survive the Dem primary. He would be portrayed as a ‘moderate voice’ even though he is a hardcore leftist, and the Dems are far more likely to nominate a Venezuela-style socialist far to the left of Obama

  20. VictrC says:

    Seriously…1/512th Native American and she’s touting how she’s proved her point.

    Literally her “lineage” could be at the earliest be mid-1700’s but most likely late 1600’s she had ONE person who was potentially Native america. What a crock

    Interesting Fact. President Tyler, born in 1790 and the 10th President, still has two grandsons alive. Now that is tracking your lineage. Imagine your grandfather being born in 1790!!!!

  21. Waingro says:

    “Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning, that lead evaporates into a 46-47 D v. R race.”

  22. mnw says:

    DW 22

    100% agree.

    Plus, you were probably too shy to say, “and he’s a white male.”

    I don’t see the DEMs nominating a white guy in ’20, or in the foreseeable future. I doubt that even half the DEM primary electorate will be white, & it will be lopsidedly female too, I bet.

  23. Todd McCain says:

    Overall very good polling for the GOP the last few weeks.

  24. Waingro says:

    You can’t make this stuff up!!

    CORRECTION: “Due to a math error, a story about Elizabeth Warren misstated the ancestry percentage of a potential 10th generation relative. It should be 1/1,024.”

  25. John says:

    Regarding Ms. Warren and her ‘DNA’ it is my understanding that tribal leaders of Native American lands (reservations) will only except someone to live on their lands (reservations) with lineage at the very minimum that appears on the Indian rolls of 1901-1910. If not, you are considered a fake.
    And tribal leaders are presently disenrolling fakes.

  26. Tgca says:

    4 Messy

    It is absurd that Warren is trying to state that 6 to 10 generations (120 to 200+ years back) makes her of Native American descent enough to qualify it as one she should lust as her diverse ethnicity on an employment application. As the report states, the majority of her heritage is of Euro descent. Please release the % of the DNA blockers so we can see how much is Native American.

    My DNA shows I have 8% to 10% African DNA. I am as light skinned as can be and it would be ridiculous if I applied for a job and listed my ethnicity as AA when the vast majority of my DNA is non-African. I also have genetic markers of 5% or less elsewhere so does that mean I can legitimately claim that I deserve diversity treatment for those minute percentages as well?

    Remember, the genesis of this was she used this as diversity point in her job application to secure employment. I guess I could have applied for a AA college scholarship because one of my grandparents was 1/2 black in Puerto Rico.

    Warren probably has a higher percentage of her ancestors voting Republican than of her Native American heritage.

    She looks more foolish now then ever!

  27. JulStol says:


    (In #2) holy c**p that’s an old meme.

  28. DW says:

    I think I shall start speaking with a Swedish accent, given that I am 1/1,024 Swedish, even though I am otherwise mostly English, German and Dutch.

  29. Tgca says:

    13 Barrett

    She is not lucky. She looks foolish because she took an extremely small percentage of her heritage and tried to use it as a qualification for diversity in employment. In other words, she mislead her employer and may have taken away from a more diverse qualified candidate.

    She was criticized for making racial stereotypes about the physical traits as well to make a point. Most Americans have some unexpected diversity in their DNA because we all originated from common ancestors.

    I say to Warren: Release the percentage of the DNA for folks to see. As the expert noticed, she is majority of Euro descent and the markers go back 6 to 10 generations. That’s between 120 and 200+ years for one ancestor with at least some % and not full blooded Native American.

    She looks foolish! People can see between this for what it is.

  30. Mr.Vito says:

    Michael Ahrens
    ? @michael_ahrens
    1h1 hour ago

    So Elizabeth Warren is *possibly* 1/1024 (0.09%) Native American.

    Scientists say the average European-American is 0.18% Native American. ( …)

    That’d make Warren even less Native American than the average European-American.

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    Whoa. Trump is tweeting Ben Shapiro by name now.

    Donald J. Trump
    ?Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    “The only way to shut down the Democrats new Mob Rule strategy is to stop them cold at the Ballot Box. The fight for America’s future is never over!” Ben Shapiro

  32. Waingro says:

    #34, considering Shapiro was a Never Trumper, that is pretty significant.

  33. Mr.Vito says:

    Jeff Jacoby
    ? @Jeff_Jacoby

    To her credit, @SenWarren took a DNA test and released the results. It indicates that 1 of her 32 great-great-great grandparents may have been American Indian. Does that make her American Indian? Only to those who believe in the racist “one drop rule.”

  34. Mr.Vito says:

    “#34, considering Shapiro was a Never Trumper, that is pretty significant.”

    Ben has been calling balls and strikes on Trump since the election… like jason not Corey.

    He has had an election special on FOX the past three Sundays that earned high ratings. Trump probably saw at least one of those.

  35. DW says:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_03, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 4 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  36. BayernFan says:

    GOP plays blame game while fighting to save House majority

  37. Messy says:

    29. She said she had Indian ancestry and that was it. She never used it to get work. Also, Trump has said that if she could prove it he would give her a million bucks.

  38. DW says:

    And just like that…right after I moved NJ_03 to the collection that I think will flip R to D…


    Stockton Univ.

    MacArthur (R-Inc) 47%
    Kim (D) 45%

  39. Mr.Vito says:

    “and that was it.”

    She said a lot more than that. As someone who also lived in Oklahoma, Warren should understand what an “own-goal” this is, unless she’s tone-deaf.

    Trump should give her 1/1024 of a million dollars. It would be epic.

  40. EML says:

    From David Harsanyi

    Warren, who once maintained her family had “high cheekbones like all of the Indians do,” was listed as a “minority faculty member” by The University of Pennsylvania. She had the school switch her designation from white to Native American. Warren self-identified as a “minority” in the legal directory, and Harvard Law School preposterously listed her as one of the “women of color” the school had hired. On job applications, Warren was very specific in claiming that she had Cherokee and Delaware Indian ancestry.

    When her supposed Native American heritage came under scrutiny during her first Senate bid, Warren presented a recipe she had published in her cousin’s cookbook as evidence of her background. It was signed “Elizabeth Warren — Cherokee.” Later we learned that even the recipe was taken verbatim from an article in The New York Times five years earlier.

    It’s easy to see what’s going on. Warren wants to dull Donald Trump’s “Fauxcahontas” jibes because she is about to run for president. Rather than admitting she has no genuine cause for being “proud of my Native American heritage” in her career, she’s doubled down on the assertion.

  41. DW says:

    Pulling NJ_03 back into the unknown category:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 5 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  42. DW says:

    Wow, Silver at 538 is melting down, in total denial mode. Checked his formula after the NJ_03 poll was added, and yep, he goes even harder to the left. All the others say NJ_03 is Tossup, though Gonzales says Tilt D. Even the Dem Internal poll of that seat has only a 2 point lead, but Silver still holding fast to a Lean D ranking.

  43. Tgca says:

    40 Messy

    You are incorrect! See the numerous posts here and the internet where she went beyond just a simple statement. Stating you are 2% of something or less to make a point of diversity is preposterous. Under her model, I am entitled to benefits afforded any AA at any school since I am in the 10 range. She vastly exaggerated and misled folks on this. Why can’t you admit it? The more she clings to this, the more news it will get and people will not only laugh at her but see she is dishonest about it. This will not win her votes but piss of true minorities.

  44. Wes says:

    Tg, you’re arguing with a guy who said Ebola cost the Dems 2014.

  45. lisab says:


    A biological male who identifies as a transgender woman won a women’s world championship cycling event on Sunday.

    Rachel McKinnon, a professor at the College of Charleston, won the women’s sprint 35-39 age bracket at the 2018 UCI Masters Track Cycling World Championships in Los Angeles.

    McKinnon, representing Canada, bested Carolien Van Herrikhuyzen of the Netherlands and American cyclist Jennifer Wagner to take home the gold.

    McKinnon celebrated the victory on Twitter, writing: “First transgender woman world champion…ever.”

    that’s a man baby!

  46. lisab says:

    Can you imagine if I claim AA status to get preferential treatment and college scholarships meant for African Americans?

    this has been done

    Man claims to be a minority business owner after DNA test shows he’s 4% African

  47. DW says:

    New Pew Research generic ballot is D+9, down from D+10 in their last poll.

  48. Waingro says:

    “Ben has been calling balls and strikes on Trump since the election… like jason not Corey.”

    Yup. (Although Trump usually never forgives.) I’ve been trying to do the same.

  49. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Oct 8-14

  50. SoHope says:

    I’m a huge Ben Shapiro fan. If he men’s some fences with never Trump types that could go a long way for a united front

  51. lisab says:

    apparently, in the usa legally you need to be at least 1/32 of a minority to claim minority status, and often much more, depending on what you are applying for

    the question is

    how will african americans, especially men, react to a white woman who claimed to be a minority to get a job?

  52. DW says:

    Hard to believe it was 30 years ago, the famous call by Vin Scully:

    “She is gone!…[minute of silence]…in a year of the improbable, the impossible has happened!”

  53. Tgca says:

    It is absurd and ridiculous that someone without visible characteristics or raised in a related minority environment should be defined that status. I am not one for quotas but I do believe diversity inclusion can be of value in determining cross representation where historically those areas were closed to such diversity. But one has to use common sense, in its use.

    In the case of the transgender athlete, it is highly discriminatory in favor of genetic physical ability. Men and women are built differently for strength and endurance in certain capabilities. For example, at my peak of weightlifting in my mid 30s, I could do 3 sets of 10 reps chest presses of 105 dumbbells in each arm. I could also bench press nearly 250 lbs and do leg presses of 600 lbs, and seated chest presses of 300 lbs, the whole rac on the machine. 99% or more women in the world can’t do that even at peak fitness because they’re just not genetically programmed so if I were trans, I would have an extreme advantage over women in sporting events, and that is just unfair. This is what pisses people off. This trans person should not be allowed to compete in these events any more than I should be allowed to compete in a grade school competition of physical strength. It’s PCness run amuck.

  54. lisab says:

    i do think biden would be a formidable opponent for trump

    if you look at the debate with ryan, biden crushed him. he was a total ass … but he is the one dem who could go toe to toe with trump on insults

    it looks like the far left will fight bitterly over the nominee, so i wonder if a more moderate dem could emerge as the others fight over the mob?

  55. lisab says:

    It is absurd and ridiculous that someone without visible characteristics


  56. lisab says:

    I could also bench press nearly 250 lbs

    how much do you weigh? because if you are 200 lbs, that is not much, but if you are 150 lbs, that is a lot

  57. Mr.Vito says:

    “that’s a man baby!”


    Ben Shapiro
    ?Verified account @benshapiro
    3h3 hours ago

    So now we have learned from the media that having a Native American great-great-great-great-great-grandparent makes you Native American, but that having two X chromosomes does not make you a woman.

  58. CG says:

    Those “Karin Housely might have a chance in Minnesota” comments made by some last night sure did not age well.

    Not a good day for her campaign to say the least.

  59. CG says:

    Re: Balls and Strikes on Trump-

    I think I have been very honest, both here and elsewhere, of pointing out aspects of Administration policy that I have agreed with and pointing out attacks on him that I thought were unfair or irrelevant. Over on the left-wing blog, they think I’m practically a Trump sycophant. I wasn’t the one of the people going wobbly on Kavanaugh to say the least. People think what they want to think, especially online.

    But if I am the “umpire” I think I care enough about the rules of the game to have the natural inclination to want to eject someone standing in the batters box with an obvious illegal amount of pine tar. And since he gratuitously insults people like on such a regular basis and shows such a lack of respect to the “institution of the game,” any umpire would also be in their right to throw him out.

  60. bartman says:


    #55. I remember exactly where I was watching. My date had offered to go back to her house and watch the game because I was listening to the radio the whole night. As soon as the ball hit the bat, I jumped up and yelled “get out of here baby!” Her parents must have thought I was an idiot.

    Go Blue!

  61. CG says:

    I remember watching the Gibson shot live too.

  62. Bitterlaw says:

    Here is a fun diabetes quirk. 3 weeks ago, I started using a glucose monitor that is inserted in my skin and tells me my blood sugar level every 5 minutes (I do not need to read screen if I don’t want to do so). This allowed me to take several injections a day for better control. The problem? When my blood sugar is better controlled, I gain weight even though I eat less. More insulin means sugar gets stored in the body rather than leaving unprocessed. If I start having bad control again, I will lose weight quickly. Great choice.

  63. DW says:

    One of the funniest parts of the Gibson homerun lore is the camera following the ball over the wall, you could see in the background, past the stands a car that was in the parking lot, leaving the ballpark to get ahead of the crowd (as it had appeared the A’s would win), and as the ball exited you could see the brake lights go on.

    Bob Costas talked about those who had left early, and missed one of the greatest homers in the history of baseball.

  64. NYCmike says:

    Rolling Stones has a headline “Trump’s Disastrous 60 Minutes Interview!”……can anyone report on what they are speaking about. My computer is unable to download Rolling Stones pages for some reason.

  65. CG says:

    It was only Game 1 though. As young as I was then I don’t know if I quite got the significance. Most people don’t remember that Mark McGwire hit a walk-off home run that same series in Oakland.

  66. CG says:

    Haven’t read anything in Rolling Stone about it but Trump said that Defense Secretary Mattis is “sort of a Democrat” and that he might be leaving.

  67. NYCmike says:

    And the link for Housley?? what happened to her?

  68. NYCmike says:

    Seeing it now……Housley…..

  69. DW says:

    The late 1980s featured some pretty good World Series.

    1986: Mets over Red Sox (in 7) and the classic game six, ball through Buckner’s legs.

    1987: Not anything overly remarkable, but it did go seven games.

    1988: Kirk Gibson’s dramatic Game 1 walk-off homer hit with a bad knee and other leg bad hamstring pull.

    1989: Only a four-gamer, but the famous earthquake series.

  70. bartman says:

    I loved baseball in the 70’s and 80’s.

  71. CG says:

    73. and then you had to get involved in 2003’s NLCS……

    (just kidding)

  72. lisab says:

    Seeing it now……Housley…..

    it would not have been released today if the dems were not worried

  73. Tgca says:

    67 NYC

    See RCP for story and the interview.

    Lesley Stahl interviewed Trump p, and in classic Trump, he pushed back on certain claims and challenged her. She did say after the interview that after 3 interviews with him over time, he is clearly confident in being president and different than interviews before e was POTUS and while president-elect.

    She also stated in a subsequent interview with another MSM discussing her Trump interview, when trying to be coaxed by the interviewer that Trump was filibustering and not answering her questions, she admitted every politician she’s ever interviewed tries to filibuster. What a surprise!!!

    The big points Trump made in the interview that seems to bug MSM was to push back that not only Russia meddles but that China does it and no one wants to discuss that. He also pushed on the treatment of immigrants and how when Obama did it there was no problem but now it’s a humanity crisis. And he had the gall to refuse to pledge to her what he would do with Sessions after the midterms. She was trying to get him to commit to a pledge, and he would not.

    I guess to some in the MSM a POTUS who deflects and tries to push a narrative of his own is something new and reflective of a disastrous interview.

  74. bartman says:

    74 Took me a second but that is funny. Anything I could do to keep Dusty Baker (ex-Giant) from winning a World Series.

  75. NYCmike says:


    Baker seems to NOT need any help with that!

  76. Tgca says:

    59 Lisa

    Clearly you were never a weightlifter. You can be 6’3 and 230 lbs of lean muscle and benching 3 sets of 10 of 250 lbs is still not easy. Does not depend on size but strength and muscular build and conditioning. Benching depends on strength of chest and arm strength, as well as arm span and shoulder development. Even though the focus of benching is on the chest, you need those other extremities in good peak condition to accomplish repetitive reps.

    The average man of 6 feet and 180 pounds could barely get through 4 reps of such weight without being in good physical shape. I know this from years in the gym watching people hurt themselves or nearly have weights crashing on them because they had wrong form and tried to overdo it. Benching your own weight is not the same as carrying or dragging that weight.

    For the record, at the tine, I was about 165 lbs with about 12% body fat and a 29 to 30 inch waist at my midget height of 5’8ish but according to the BMI scale, I was obese.

    It took me a few years of working out 4 to 5 hours daily to get there but it’s not something anyone can just do, and it takes a toll on your shoulders and arms as well, as any repetitive heavy exercise does.

  77. SoHope says:

    Real Native American: I am your father’s brother’s nephew’s cousin’s former roommate

    Senator Warren: What does that make us?

    Real Native American: Absolutely nothing!

  78. NYCmike says:


    You summarized it the way the guy on the radio did, and he used audio clips to show his points.

    I’ll have to find the R S article on RCP.


  79. Wes says:

    Bye bye, Housley.

  80. NYCmike says:

    -Need to ask – why wouldn’t airplanes be flown to another base out of the line of a CAT 4 hurricane? They could have called up Robbie to help.

  81. Tgca says:

    79 …

    It’s also about genetics. Some guys are built for it, others are not. I’m a dense fellow and weigh more than most my size to this day because I have lotsa muscle tone even when I don’t work out actively but I can still fit in my 30 to 31 waist pants…29…not so much. I had friends my size, especially Asian guys, who worked forever and as hard or harder and could not grow past a certain size, simply because of their genes.

    Luckily for me, this helped during my recent surgeries and rehabilitation because I did not have to worry about weak muscles or muscle atrophy like many with my condition. In fact, my doctors kept telling me how lucky I was, though I did not feel so lucky after 4 surgeries in less than a year and hobbling around on a walker and cane and sucking pain killers 24/7 for weeks at a time. But I guess I’m just being a wuss.

  82. Albert Hodges says:


    I am also diabetic, first diagnosed in 1998. I have lost a toe (in 2006) for not taking care of myself. My A1C until May ran about 6.7. I have been taking Metformin and Glipicize for years.

    In May, I started the Keto diet. I got used to it within a week. When I went to my doctor in late August, my A1C was 5.1 and I had lost 55 pounds. Easiest eating approach I have ever adopted and am never hungry. We have cut my meds significantly. All of my lab work came back great except he told me to eat salt to get my sodium up (common for Ketogenic dieters).

    My good old country doctor could not believe it. He has treated for 15 years. I wouldn’t have believed it either, it I hadn’t lived it.

    Just wanted to share this with you in case it helps.

  83. Tgca says:

    81. NYC

    I did not think it was controversial. I don’t think Stahl did either. I think she accepted he was trying to drive the interview where he wanted to go and gave examples of what he believes are similar examples that MSM ignores. That’s typical Trump. The fact she acknowledged he is confident as POTUS now suggests, like all presidents after 2 years, he is used to being POTUS. He now has more experience being POTUS than 535 members of Congress.

    She also would not be sucked into that his filibustering was unique and made that clear to the interviewer that every politician she ever interviewed did that.

    This is clearly MSM trying to make hay of nothing because there was nothing in this interview that hasn’t been discussed before that he has commented on differently. Must have been a slow news day for the MSM I guess to suggest Trump’s interview was disastrous.

  84. lisab says:

    benching 3 sets of 10 of 250 lbs is still not easy

    you did not say 3 sets of 10 of 250. you just said bench 250 lbs. 3 sets of 10 is a lot.

  85. lisab says:

    also, benching 250 lbs when you are 165 lbs is very respectable, that’s 1.5 times your weight.

  86. DW says:

    NC_13 – SUSA

    Manning (D) 41%
    Budd (R) 44%

  87. wheelz91 says:

    The Housley thing seems overblown. She posted on Facebook many years ago that when Michelle Obama meet the Queen of England she had very bad posture and even the monkey in Bedtime for Bonzo stood up straighter than she did. And that she loved Ronald Reagan.

  88. lisab says:

    warren’s test was not compared to cherokee’s

    her dna was compared to peruvians and mexicans

  89. Tgca says:

    Congrats Albert! Really happy to hear about you finding a lifestyle change that works for you and keeps you healthy. Kudos to you and long live thee.

    Sorry about the toe though. I worked with a guy who lost his finger sticking it into a sink garbage disposal. No chit! He joked about it afterwards.

    As for Keto diet, I dabbled in it a bit for just general healthy benefits and I know others who have as well, and they can attest you can flush unnecessary weight and feel good. Like all lifestyle changes, it may take a bit to get used to but the benefits are there. Unfortunately, not all medical professionals are keen on trying remedies that don’t include pills and strict routines. That’s why a prefer working with DO over MD sometimes because their more open to alternative remedies, when used smartly, can be rather beneficial.

  90. lisab says:

    so the democratic debates for 2020 will be

    a guy who claims to be a welsh coal miner’s son


    a guy who claims to be a roman gladiator


    a woman who claims to be a cherokee

    moderated by a man who claims to have seen bodies float by his window during hurricane katrina

    this will be fun

  91. Tgca says:

    88 Lisa

    I assumed we were talking about normal weight lifting. 250 was a stretch for me because of my shorter arm span and the pressure it puts on the arm leverage. 225 was not much of a problem at all. Clearly, now I could not do that with all my arthritic and spine issues, and my docs would slap me silly anyways. Ah! To be young and stupid again and spend 4 to 5 hours daily working out when I could’ve been home watching Netflix with a veggie pizza.

    I have to admit out of all the weightlifting routines, the one I hated the most was abductors and adductors to strengthen the thigh muscles. Those hurt so bad. I used to ask myself, why do I need strong thighs for other than crushing beer cans at parties.

  92. Albert Hodges says:

    Thanks, TGCA!

  93. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    42. “Trump should give her 1/1024 of a million dollars. It would be epic.”

    Great comment.

    Most Europeans have traces of Neanderthal DNA in their gene pool. Does this mean these people can claim to be Neanderthals?

  94. Tgca says:

    Almost there…

  95. Wes says:

    Hugin will lose, GPO.

  96. DW says:



    Schrader (D) 33%
    Callahan (R) 56%

    Gravis Marketing (paid for by Callahan)

    Everybody but RCP and Fox says its Safe D. Fox and RCP says Likely D

  97. Tgca says:


    Hang in there Albert! We’re with you #AlbertKeto

    …now if only Bitter will listen.

  98. GPO says:

    Wes says:

    October 15, 2018 at 4:19 pm

    Hugin will lose, GPO.

    I don’t doubt that, but go down fighting. Menendez not well liked at all in NJ. But I agree – Hugin will not win

  99. dblaikie says:

    Elizabeth Warren is phony and I could care less about her stupid DNA story. I pray that she will be the Dem. candidate against Trump.

    But she is not what makes me angry. What makes me angry is the media fantasy that says the Kavanaugh effect is only in the red states and the Senate races. While anger against the GOP is gaining steam and in those purple suburban districts where according to CNN independents are flocking in droves towards the blue. What hogwash or better yet crap!

    Friends Nevada is a purple state! Since Kavanaugh the Senate race has turned big time. I actually believe Rosen is toast. But the CD districts are trending red too. THAT IS LOGICAL!

    Arizona is trending red which is another purple state. And in my reading of the good work provided by the poll junkies at this fine site, the last two weeks have gone damn well for the GOP in the CONGRESSIONAL races too. I don’t trust those polls but I do believe they are showing an undeniable trend.

    This nation is not schizophrenic where the Senate goes one way and the Congress another. Now of course the trend towards the GOP in the blue states has to be stronger than in the red. But no one can deny the trend! Even in California where one poll says Cox is only 5 points behind while another is at 12. Cox not being down 30 points is a miracle. I believe in miracles.

    So let the media keep on publishing bogus polls on the generic ballot. Let them keep on hoping that a blue wave is a certainty. Let them be in denial that in the real world a red tide is coming on fast.

    I know that I am way out there with my bold (Wes would say stupid) prediction that the GOP will gain seats. I may be wrong. But if these trends continue I will be closer to the truth than you folks who are predicting a 20 to 30 seat loss.

  100. DW says:

    I know that OR_05 is a campaign internal release, but wow, +23 on a seat that is considered Safe D. I know there are always outliers, but if we could get Elway or someone like that to poll it and even find the Republican up 5 or 6 then we would have something.

  101. Barrett says:

    #32 – I’m going to edit my statement. Warren is lucky in the sense that she was able to give CNN a 1 out of 1024 chance to believe her, and of course, since she is their own personal social justice warrior, they go for it.

    The Democrats have successfully played Identity Politics with MeToo, Brett Kavanaugh, and a slew of other issues. They seek to divide the country on gender, and it’s disgusting.

    I’m voting mostly Republican, with a few Independents and Libertarians. You will not see me vote for a Democrat. This has to stop.

  102. dblaikie says:

    Once again, DW the trend is getting undeniable. I don’t think this is just true in Oregon 5. I think it is happening in the Nevada districts, in Ca. 48 and 49. It is happening all across this nation.

    And I tell you what DW, I am not quite there yet. but soon I am going to buy some eggs to throw in the face of 538, Charlie Cook and Sabato.

  103. Wes says:

    I don’t think you’re stupid, DB. I think you’re underestimating the hole the GOP would have to climb out of to gain seats—to say nothing of the odds against them after gaining seats in each of the last three first midterms.

    While I acknowledge Kavanaugh has been a boon to the GOP and has put the Senate out of reach for the Dems, the House was a place where Dems put a ton of seats in play early. To gain seats, Republicans would almost have to run the table on seats Dems are favored to pick up.

    I see no realistic path for that. As such, currently I expect the GOP to hang in the House with a majority reduced by 10-15 seats and bolster their Senate Majority by 3-6 seats.

  104. Waingro says:

    SilverHack is in denial.

    Nate Silver
    ?Verified account @NateSilver538
    29m29 minutes ago

    I don’t really like to call out cases like this as our model is pretty smart about dealing with weird data (e.g. it still has Schrader with an 84% chance). But this maybe the most… unexpected internal poll I can remember.
    26 replies 9 retweets 155 likes
    Show this thread
    Nate Silver
    ?Verified account @NateSilver538
    48m48 minutes ago

    In other news, the award for least plausible internal poll of the election cycle goes to … Mark Callahan, the Republican candidate in OR-5, who released a poll showing himself up 23 points (!) in a race that Cook/Sabato/Gonzales all rate as “Safe D”.

  105. Phil says:

    Wes, do you really think the GOP has a shot to keep losses at 10 to 15 seats.

    I have always been impressed with your predictions of congressional races – especially your home state. I’m now encouraged.

    Also, have you heard or read anything on the state of our girl’s SD governor’s race?

  106. dblaikie says:

    Wes, I am glad you are coming my way. Frankly I could care less about the last 3 midterms because Donald Trump has turned politics on its head. However I do believe that GOP did have a big hole to overcome. We will see.

  107. lisab says:

    Cherokee Nation responds to Senator Warren DNA test.

    however, you cannot find their response on google

  108. DW says:

    Right now I am at D+20 net for the house, and the momentum is in the GOP direction overall.

  109. lisab says:

    Cherokee Nation responds to Senator Warren DNA test.

    “A DNA test is useless to determine tribal citizenship. Current DNA tests do not even distinguish whether a person’s ancestors were indigenous to North or South America,” Cherokee Nation Secretary of State Chuck Hoskin Jr. said in a statement.

    “Sovereign tribal nations set their own legal requirements for citizenship, and while DNA tests can be used to determine lineage, such as paternity to an individual, it is not evidence for tribal affiliation. Using a DNA test to lay claim to any connection to the Cherokee Nation or any tribal nation, even vaguely, is inappropriate and wrong,” he said.

    “It makes a mockery out of DNA tests and its legitimate uses while also dishonoring legitimate tribal governments and their citizens, whose ancestors are well documented and whose heritage is proven.

    “Senator Warren is undermining tribal interests with her continued claims of tribal heritage.”

  110. lisab says:

    if the dems do not win the house

    there will be a huge uproar.

    it would be crushing

  111. Phil says:

    I’m pretty optimistic about the senate as well, but a quick look at 538 brought me back down to earth.

    Silver has 1) Sinema up over McSally 50.1 – 47.8. 2) McCaskell 49.2 – Hawley 48.1 3)Tester by 7.2%. 4) Donnelly cruising be 5.2%. 5). Nelson by 2.2% over Scott.

    He even has Cramer with just a 3 pt lead over Heidi and I would have thought she was a dead duck.

  112. Waingro says:

    Great news, DW. Along side your House polling charts, can you post your bottom line House projections from now on? Thanks again for all the great data.

  113. Waingro says:

    #117, take with a grain of salt, Phil. SilverHack has gone full blown partisan in this cycle. The Kavanaugh hearings triggered and revealed him for who he really is.

    I’m not saying it’s necessarily fair to paint whole broad brush over 538’s work, but he is their leader and voice. So its credibility flows with him to whatever weight you want to give it.

  114. Waingro says:

    “lisab says:
    October 15, 2018 at 5:36 pm

    if the dems do not win the house

    there will be a huge uproar.

    it would be crushing”

    Something like this, lisab:

  115. EML says:

    Arizona Sen up on the NYT/Siena agenda.

  116. Mr.Vito says:

    102 Yikes!

    Antifa effect??

    Any polling from OR-4?

  117. Waingro says:

    #121, nice. There is a debate tonight as well, which should be very telling.

  118. Phil says:

    You have a point about Silver, Waingrow. He now has Dems gaining 37 House seats. I don’t see that at all.

  119. mnw says:

    Phil 117

    How does he get those #s for MT & IN, when there haven’t been any publicly-available polls in those races since Grover Cleveland died?

    As for ND, if he’s still saying that… well, kind of puts everything else he says in perspective, I think.

  120. Mr.Vito says:

    Wasserman (he then proceeds to move two IL seats in the D direction and moving NV-04 to lean D):

    Republicans suddenly feel more confident about several incumbents who have previously been tied or behind but have the luxury of sitting in Trump-won districts: Reps. Mike Bost (IL-12), John Faso (NY-19), Claudia Tenney (NY-22) and Steve Chabot (OH-01). They’re also newly optimistic about Toss Up open seats in Trump country, like Kansas’s 2nd CD and North Carolina’s 9th CD.

    However, it shouldn’t come as a shock that the highly charged Supreme Court fracas has barely moved the needle in high-income, Clinton-won suburbs. Republicans are especially concerned about Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Peter Roskam (IL-06), who now appear to be narrowly behind. In fact, there’s evidence the map was beginning to polarize before the Kavanaugh fight.

  121. Mr.Vito says:

    A little tidbit.

    The median house district in PVI is currently Taylor in VA-02 at R+3.4.

  122. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    My Neanderthal blood boils when I think of the rude response the Cherokee tribe gave to squaw Warren. Have not been this mad since a CroMagnon family moved next door.

  123. MikeKS says:

    too many of the polls on rcp are outdated. we’re going to get 56 seats.

  124. dblaikie says:

    Phil, 538 uses polls that are weeks old and therefore useless. They also take these bogus generic poll numbers and factor them in. In short if trends continue once again 538 will be humiliated by their predictions — just like 2016.

    Nevada is the canary in the coal mine. Two weeks ago Rosen was up. Now in two polls after Kavanaugh had Heller up 2 about a week ago and up 6 today.

    Never forget that the only things these polls are predictive of is trends. Right now they reveal a strong trend toward the GOP. Now that may change. But this close out I don’t think so.

    The Kavanaugh hearing revealed what a Democratic majority would do in this country for the next two years. A great majority want nothing to do with that.

  125. MikeKS says:

    Know some folks in AZ. McSally will win that.

  126. Bitterlaw says:

    …now if only Bitter will listen.

    I won’t. I have no idea what the Keto diet is and I won’t look it up. I am sure that I would not like the food without knowing what the food is. Based on the medications he listed, Al is probably a Type 2 diabetic. I wish him well but I am Type 1 and incurable.

  127. Mr.Vito says:

    The Dems had really better hope the data from the suburbs isn’t skewed like it was in 2016.

  128. Wes says:

    DB, I think you overestimate the effect Trump has had on politics. He didn’t “turn politics on its head.” Indeed, he did nothing another pol hasn’t done before.

    We’ve seen a New York-based businessman with a history of left-wing activism but no electoral history who flirted with Presidential runs without actually running run as a Republican and beat a statewide New York officeholder for President before.

    Herbert Hoover did that exact thing to Al Smith in 1928.

    Obama was actually a better example of a pol who upset the status quo. He was the first President with measurable partly non-European ancestry. He carried states or cane close in states where Republicans had routed Democrats for decades. He won in areas where Dems had previously been non-competitive. He was the first President to approach 70 million votes.

    What did that mean for the future of politics?

    Not a thing honestly. After the luster wore off, Obama outed himself as a petty, partisan, egotistical megalomaniac whose determination to remake America in his vision of it destroyed his party’s agenda in Congress after just two years .

    He burned so many bridges his only hope for reelection was to replicate the Bush-Rove divide-and-rule strategy from 2004. He caused the Dems to lurch toward elitism and anti-white bigotry, thus ending their competitiveness in many places and providing Donald Trump a ready-made base for a presidential run—which Hillary augmented by being a female Obama without the campaign work ethic.

    In the end, Trump, while flashy and superficially nuanced, was a retread of Herbert Hoover (though he seems to be a better steward of the economy). Obama was indeed an aberration, but that meant nothing past his first election. Thinking an unusual President remakes politics by dint of a single in in no way proves that person has rewritten the basic rules of electoral politics.

  129. Tina says:


    Liewantha does not have a tribal card with the Cherokee Tribe of Oklahoma. She cannot get one for obvious reasons, such as a lack of Indian blood, never enrolled at birth, etc.

  130. Tina says:

    Enema is done

    The tutu ad plus the latest recordings of her ar just too much in a state that has trended more R since 2016.

  131. Wes says:

    Phil, looking at things like recent polling and trends, I honestly do think Republicans can hold Dems to a 10-15 seat gain.

    Dems were definitely poised to take the House by some margin over the summer. Once Kavanaugh became the victim of a witch hunt, Republicans in contested races began to improve their numbers. Not all of them—see Barbara Comstock—but enough to make the Dem decline in advantage notable.

    I’m not making my final prediction now, but based on trends, I think a 10-15-seat gain is imminently reasonable.

    In two weeks I’ll make my final prediction. I doubt I’ll have reason to lower it, but we’ll see if I’ve raised it or held neutral then.

  132. Brandon says:

    NJ-02 and NJ-11 are definitely gone. NJ-03 and NJ-07 could be gone too. Bloodbath potential in NJ.

  133. Wes says:

    Someone on RRH just said there are no polls saying McSally is ahead in AZ. I guess the one showing her up 47-41 must have been mythical then.

  134. CG says:

    I thought the Keto Diet involved heading to McDonald’s with OJ after dark.

  135. michael corleone says:

    NJ 11 is not definitely gone. Anyone who thinks so doesn’t know the district. There is currently a huge spending imbalance there – if Webber can get more funds committed (Pence is going for a fundraiser today) he can win.

  136. CG says:

    If Schrader loses in Oregon, I will buy a MAGA hat.

  137. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart Larry Schweikart
    Democrats in swing districts advised to avoid talking about immigration… So they can’t talk about immigration, impeachment, or Kavanaugh. What’s left? The NFL? Oh, wait . . . .
    View summary ·

  138. dblaikie says:

    I love the way people come on this site and without any data say a seat is definitely gone. Well, 139, say whatever you like! It definitely makes no difference to me.

    Wes I have always appreciated your grasp of US History (I majored in History for by BA). And I am not going to dispute your facts. I am going to say you under estimate the effect Trump has had. On cold paper, he and Hoover, for instance, share a business background. But in reality as far as influence goes they are miles a part.

    This business guy from New York has transformed the Democratic Party into raging Socialists. No longer do they run from the word. At the same time the old country club that used to be the GOP is in the dust bin of political history. Trump has put the political world on its head. Let me just give two reasons.

    The first of course was the Supreme Court. The last years of the Warren Court, the Burger Court, the Reinquist Court and until now the Roberts Court have been centrist with swing voters like O’Conner, White, and of course Kennedy. That has been broken in two dramatic weeks of history. And unless, down the road, the Democrats make a radical decision to pack the court it is going to stay that way for a generation. The result: a candidate who embraces Trumpism will have the unwavering, passionate, energetic support of the pro-life movement which is a huge percentage of the Country. Don’t doubt me on this.

    Second, he has turned foreign policy on its head by rejecting Globalism and embracing a hybrid type of Nationalism. But this brand of Nationalism is grounded by not only “America First” but also by defense of Israel at all costs — the one nation Trump hasn’t demanded money from. His decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem along with his rejection of the Iran Treaty is huge. The result: to embrace Trumpism is to embrace the objectives of the Evangelical Community and Zionist Jewish Community (why in the world would Howard Dershowitz become pro Trump?) who now fervently support him despite his many moral flaws.

    I could go on and on, but in short. Trump is one of those characters in our history who washes out the gray and delineates where people stand.

  139. CG says:

    I don’t think Alan Dershowitz (Howard might be his cousin), would describe himself as a Trump supporter or voter.

  140. Tina says:

    Stormy Daniels states, “This decision is hard to swallow.”

    More at 11.

  141. CG says:

    dblakie, I seem to remember you commenting on this before a certain way (which differs from what others have said on here) but as a certified man of the cloth, can you weigh in briefly on the “will Jews go to Hell if they do not accept Christ as Savior” question?

  142. Brandon says:

    OK, dblakie, Seth Grossman will beat Jeff Van Drew in NJ-02. Thank you for enlightening me.

  143. Tina says:


    Carter Page, the victim of a phony fisa warrant, has sued the Dnc.

  144. Wes says:

    That in no way supports your thesis that Trump “turned politics on its head,” DB.

    He has done regarding the Court on the right what Franklin Roosevelt did on it on the left in the 1930s.

    A number of Presidents have radically changed foreign policy during their administrations: Jefferson, T. Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Warren Harding, and Ronald Reagan just to name a few.

    Also, that Trump has had successes on those fronts in no way means the basics of politics have changed. You’re providing a non sequitur argument.

    To wit, it doesn’t follow Republicans will gain House seats in 2018 simply because Trump moved an embassy and appointed two Justices. The logic connecting the two is nonexistent.

    Realistically Trump is just a flamboyant version of populist pols we’ve seen in the past. There’s nothing we about him except the fact that he outmaneuvered an overrated candidate prematurely anointed President.

    Even that means nothing beyond the fact that he did it. We tend to overrate pols we like and the influence they have on events surrounding them.

    That’s the vibe I’m getting from your posts about Trump.

  145. Bitterlaw says:

    My Jewish wife (Conservatibe branch) does not believe in Heaven or Hell. She believes the soul returns to God.

  146. dblaikie says:

    147 Sorry about the mistake — you got me. However why would Alan be on Sean Hannity 3 or 4 times and even Alan said he has been rejected by libs at Martha’s Vineyard. If Trump hadn’t been ardent about Israel Alan would be marching in step with the TDS folks.

    149 CG, I am not a Fundamentalist. Who gets into the City of God (Augustine) is not up to me and way above my pay grade. However I do believe this: The God I have come to worship and believe in will do the loving, just, and fair thing for every person. I could say more.

  147. CG says:

    None of us tend to believe or claim know for certain about the afterlife, but the Evangelicals definitely believe in it, so we might as well know what they think.

    I know what Billy Graham said on the matter, and found his position to be just fine, while others have suggested that Rev. Jeffers who revels in telling Jews and Mormons (and others) about how they are destined for hell needs to be accepted in the civic arena without criticism.

  148. CG says:

    Thank you db, that is what I thought I remembered you saying before and consistent with what Billy Graham said.

    I wish others would heed that outlook in their interactions with others.

  149. Tina says:

    The jebots must be happy tonight with fake Indian imploding.

    Her Thighness looks like the front runner in 2020.

  150. Bitterlaw says:

    A few points.

    I am tired of the term Country Club Republicans. Almost every person I know who belongs to a country club is a Democrat.

    Other than SCOTUS, Trump has no lasting impact. He has no lasting ideology GFY or core beliefs.

    If the pro-life movement is depending upon Trump (a huge supporter of Planned Parenthood in the past), they will be very disappointed.

  151. Wes says:

    I don’t believe in an afterlife, so in my beliefs everyone gets the same reward upon death.

    Good times.

  152. dblaikie says:

    And Franklin Roosevelt turned the world on its head too. So did Reagan. And my argument wasn’t so much about this election, but about its place in history. Finally I don’t trust polls. You are the ones who live and die by them. If I did there is no way on earth I would predict what I have predicted. In 2016 I predicted that Trump was going to win way before others on this site. I did that despite the polls. For me, seeing people waiting in line for hours for a rally tells me more about voter enthusiasm than any poll.

    I will say it again, at best polls only reveal trends; we have no real idea how accurate they are; media polls are suspect because they taken not for accuracy but to drive the news. Averaging polls which means mixing good with bad is laughable.

    But Wes please know that I respect your opinions greatly. And if you are right like a good poster I will bow and tip my hat to you. If you lived in Rock Hill, South Carolina I would like to invite you over for a beverage of your choice. Like you I will make my final prediction in the last week before the election. Only time will tell all of us who is right.

  153. GF says:

    Did Jul just out himself on RRH?


    October 15, 2018 at 4:03 pm | In reply to krazen1211

    This is kind of “so what”. (I mean, I did just marry a Trump-voting Wiccan.*)

    *Not COD, although she does wish me a “Happy birthday” every year.

    (R-United Russia)

  154. dblaikie says:

    No problem Bitter, I won’t say “country club republican any more.” Trump has already done more for the pro life community than most before him. With his morals, I can’t believe it either.

  155. mnw says:


    Honeybee at RRH is a very well-informed, insightful poster. Did you pick up on that? I think much better than any of The Wise Men mods.

  156. mnw says:

    There is precedent for religious voters overlooking dissonant personal behavior among their elected champions.


    “I don’t care how much he drinks as long as he votes dry.”

  157. mnw says:

    165 sb “discordant” not “dissonant”

  158. Justin says:

    House polls on NYT live polling not looking great for the R candidates. AZ senate early but looking positive.

  159. JeffP says:

    I think Trumps legacy will be bigger than we might think now. He has led the way in immigration, trade, N Korea. I think that he has re shaped the GOP to a large degree and defined differences between the GOP and Commie Dems. If we take 54-56 Senate seats and keep the house…it will be a huge statement. Whatever happened to blue dog Dems anyway?

  160. JulStol says:

    pretty sure I’ve never been secretive about my RRH ID.

    Shocked it took some of you this long to figure it out.

  161. NYCmike says:

    I believe in my GOD. I don’t give a rats patoot what any other person says about what happens to me in the afterlife, if there is one.

    “CG”, if you believe in your G-D, why does it matter what anyone else thinks, unless they are looking to physically do harm on you for your religious beliefs?

  162. Tgca says:

    149. CG

    Of course they will! Anyone that does not believe in Jesus is destined to suffer an eternal place in Hell, even their cute little puppies will burn forever. But hey, no pressure from me to force anyone to convert.

  163. CG says:

    I don’t care what someone’s religious beliefs are, but how they present themselves to others, outside of a religious arena is of course relevant. If people are looking to intentionally inflame others verbally, usually they are able to get that reaction. It’s human nature. I note for example that your use of “G-D”, which is how Jewish people reflexively type the word appears to be done in a deliberately mocking fashion. If you were taught to type the whole word, then you should do so.

    As mentioned before, I do not believe Rev. Jeffers was an appropriate choice to give a prayer at the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and that Mitt Romney was correct to also criticize the choice. Considering the location, the audience, and the significance, there would have been far better representatives of the Christian community to offer a prayer, and as db has shown, not all Christian clergy are mandated to tell Jews they are bound for hell.

    People who used religious bigotry to oppose Mitt Romney’s Presidential campaign, while completely free to believe what they want, should be criticized for that bigotry. I also think, in the civic arena, that criticism should extend to those who are bigoted against Jews, and other religious minorities, including, yes, even Muslims.

  164. CG says:

    171.. just as long as we have our own space down there from you gays. (Those who belong to both can choose which one I guess.)

    Have your foam parties away from us. It’s going to be humid enough there!

  165. Tgca says:

    If Bitter’s wife accepts Lord Jesus as her Savior, then she and the cat will be spared. Not so sure Bitter will be spared no matter what, especially if he chooses a cat over a dog and enjoys flower shows. How do you save someone like that?

  166. CG says:

    Let me of course revise and extend to express my belief that bigotry against Evangelicals in the civic arena is also wrong and un-American, just like the rest.

  167. Cash Cow TM says:

    Results of DNA for Cash Cow:

    62% Holstein
    26% Texas Longhorn
    07 British White
    2% Welsh Black
    2% Guernsey
    0.6% Cherokee
    0.4% Eskimo

  168. Tgca says:


    I’m going upstairs with the rest of the gay men following Jesus. 12 Apostles following around an attractive Jewish guy in his early 30s and I’m supposed to believe these guys give up their wives and homes are all really straight? Nuh-uh. Besides, how many priests and Popes were straight? Can we get a realistic count please.

    As for foam parties. Never been to one and doubt I ever will unless I get a personal invitation from my FL Senator Lil Marco.

  169. Cash Cow TM says:

    Been busy watching Walt do some painting in the bathroom.

    I kept telling him it looked like a very pale yellow and not a white.

    Mrs. Walt came home and said “that is yellow, not white!”
    so I got to watch Walt repaint all the woodwork in the bathroom….

  170. Waingro says:

    McSally is crushing Sinema in the debate.

  171. Tgca says:

    Sweet that the judge awarded Trump reasonable attorney fees in the Stormy Daniels case thrown out by the judge.

    This wh*re did all she could to capitalize on this and keep it going and then uses the justice system for frivolous claims to try and even get more money. Anyone remember her “Let’s Make America Horny Again” tour before feigning reputations damage because of Trump’s tweet calling her a con artist.

    Avenatti, the porn lawyer, promises an appeal and expects it to be reversed. Good luck with that since the judge seemed to have reasoned well on the loss.

  172. Mr.Vito says:

    Comstock is stubbornly keeping the Siena poll inside the MOE with another 11% undecided.

  173. CG says:

    I believe McSally is the first ever candidate for statewide office that I have ever seen debate sleeveless.

  174. DW says:

    I know everyone is following these Siena polls vote by vote, and some of these are great news for the GOP some are so-so and some are horrible for the GOP.

    A reminder is in order:

    1) Siena has been a NY pollster historically, and have little experience polling outside NY.

    2) Their NY-Times gimmick is new and they are getting horrible response rates.

    3) Some of their redo polls are radically different from their earlier ones.

    4) Some of their polls are quite different from other known polls of the same seat.

    5) Most importantly, their recent track record has some huge, epic misses:

    NY_11 – GOP primary:


    Grimm 47
    Donovan 37

    Actual Results:

    Grimm 37
    Donovan 63


    NY_24 – Dem Primary


    Perez Williams 45
    Balter 32

    Actual Results:

    Perez Williams 37
    Balter 62

    Its hard to be much further off than that. Just because they are churning through a high volume of polls doesn’t mean they are accurate.

  175. MichiganGuy says:

    Texas Senate
    Cruz 52%
    O’Rourke 43%
    WPA Intelligence Poll

  176. MichiganGuy says:

    Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says…
    Generic Ballot
    Dems 42%
    Reps 36%

  177. Tina says:

    John Cardillo
    I know it’s only October, but with the dismissal of the Stormy Daniels lawsuit and the epic fail Swetnik scam, I don’t see how anyone tops @MichaelAvenatti as the biggest loser of 2018. This guy can’t do anything but fail and make a fool of himself.

    Who is backing this guy?



    Drat mega donors?

  178. mnw says:

    DW 183

    Good points. It’s easy to fall into the trap of saying, “Well, ALL these professional pollsters can’t be wrong. One or two maybe, but not ALL of them. Got to stay real here.”

    And then… 2016 GE comes along… As a matter of fact, they CAN all be wrong. They have a herding instinct, as you’ve pointed out.

    I WANT TO KNOW WHAT SELZER’S FINAL POLL IS. Then, I’ll venture my prediction.

  179. MichiganGuy says:

    Dunleavy (R) 43%
    Walker (I-inc) 24%
    Begich (D) 23%
    Congress Rep.
    Don Young (R-inc) 46%
    Alyse Galvin (I) 43%
    PPP Poll

  180. Phil says:

    Another poll showing Beto at 43%. That is the same percentage that both Obama and Hillary got in Texas. Democrats are stuck there and it doesn’t matter how many millions of dollars coastal elites pour into The coffers of Texas Democratic candidates – whether it be Beto, Wendy Davis, or whoever The blue flavor of the election cycle.

    Send more $$ to Beto. Just a little more. Give til it hurts.

  181. MichiganGuy says:

    Mia Love (R-inc) 46%
    Ben McAdams (D) 46%
    University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics/The Salt Lake Tribune

  182. JeffP says:

    Watched the end of Arizona debate…wow that Dem lady is a big fake. Actually talked about working with GOP…what a bunch of BS. McSally called her out on Taliban remarks at the end and she blew it off as nothing other than dirty politics. That lady is bad news. Hope McSally wins big.

  183. GeauxLSU says:

    Sinema seems to be holding her own. Of course she is lying but she makes it believable. McSally is very controlled. The moderator questions seem more directed at McSally’s positions and asking her to defend the GOP and Trump and very little confronting of Sinema.

  184. mnw says:


    Eventually it will hurt A LOT– as TX fills up with illegal aliens, & anchor babies turn 18, & then bring in their whole fam damily.

    This whole thing is like Invasion of the Body Snatchers.


  185. Tima says:

    Mia needs to poll better.

  186. MichiganGuy says:

    MacArthur (R-inc) 47%
    Kim (D) 45%
    Stockton College

  187. Mr.Vito says:

    The Arizona poll is fun right now.

    McSally is winning non-whites and losing whites by 12.

  188. Phil says:

    Republican losing whites by 12 pts to a far left Democrat in a sunbelt state? That’s one for the books.

  189. mnw says:

    I don’t like what I’ve been reading about the AZ SEN debate at all.

  190. Mr.Vito says:

    “Republican losing whites by 12 pts to a far left Democrat in a sunbelt state? That’s one for the books.”

    There are less than 75 respondents. As I said, it’s just fun.

  191. Scooby77 says:


    What are you reading? How that race is even close, after all of the socialist’s comments, is beyond me.

  192. mnw says:

    Scooby 201

    Posters at RRH who actually watched it. Posters for whom I have respect– NOT the eeyoring mods. Posters who seem to me to be cool & objective about it.

    Go see for yourself.

  193. JulStol says:

    MNW is just following along with the Cool, cool considerate men of RRH.

    They don’t like scrappers.

    Sounds like Lt. Col. McSally was a scrapper tonight.

  194. BayernFan says:

    Have y’all seen this?? ABC generic poll R +1 in battieground districts… 66 of them.

  195. MichiganGuy says:

    Kyrsten Sinema summoned witches to her anti-war rally.
    The gift that keeps on giving. LOL

  196. MichiganGuy says:

    The Senate Majority has a new ad out on the AZ Senate race.

  197. Cash Cow TM says:


    YouJustCan’tMakeThisSh!tUp” category
    The temporary replacement “B” team on the WV SC ruled Friday that the House either did not have the right to impeach all 5 of them, or else they procedurally did something wrong.

    In any case, justices #1 and #1 have resigned, #3 has been found guilty of 11 counts of a 22 count federal indictment.

    In the impeachment trial of #4, she was severely reprimanded but found not guilty of the impeachable charges by a Senate vote of 32 to 1.

    The impeachment trial of #5 was scheduled to begin this morning, but the judge refused to show up to preside in the Senate chambers due to the ruling of the SC “B” team that vacated the impeachment handed down by the House–so the WV Senate has apparently thrown in the towel and will not appeal to SCOTUS.

    So now the “A” team of the WV SC is seated (Former House speaker Armstead–appointed to fill vacancy; former congressman Evan Jenkins–appointed to fill vacancy; Margaret Workman; and Beth Walker; and one vacant chair since the justice who just got convicted on the federal charges is suspended and not allowed to sit on the bench.

  198. Tina says:

    So, porn lawyah cost his client $100,000. That is the approx coat for trumps attorneys.

    Per Robert Barnes @barnes law.

  199. Tina says:

    Jack Posobietz ??
    Trump actually got Elizabeth Warren to take a DNA test. I still can’t get over how he does it
    View details ·

    She is not bright.

  200. Mr.Vito says:

    This should make Phil smile.

    “SAN ANTONIO — Rep. Beto O’Rourke announced Monday that he will not share any of his $38.1 million war chest, even though Democratic bosses want the cash for more competitive states.

    The Texas Democrat told reporters after a campaign rally that he will not spare any expense in his own race and plans to leave all the money he has raised out on the field ahead of Election Day. He said if people who contributed to him want to do so for another campaign, they should do that. O’Rourke raised an eye-watering $38.1 million from July to September. “

  201. Phil says:

    That does make me smile.

    Just what is OL Beto going to spend that much on in three weeks? That’s a lot of yard signs. Can yard signs vote? If so, he has a shot.

  202. mnw says:

    JulStol 203

    I really resent your comment. FOAD.

    I need to just shut up & be the mirror opposite of the eyeores, apparently: “Everything is BEAUTIFUL! We ‘re winning EVERYTHING!!” /s

    Unwelcome but honest news must be suppressed!

    Did I mention FU?

  203. MichiganGuy says:

    “Attorney General Jeff Sessions unleashed a blistering assault on federal judges Monday, saying anti-Trump bias has led some to abandon their role as legal referees and become “political actors” erecting roadblocks to the president’s policies.

    In unusually stark language, Mr. Sessions suggested judges could soon face “calls for their replacement” if they don’t cool it.”
    Too little too late Jeff. After the elections you’re fired!

  204. Mr.Vito says:

    Matt Walsh
    ?Verified account @MattWalshBlog
    11h11 hours ago

    After finding out that Warren is a staggering 99.999 percent white, Richard Spencer is expected to endorse her for president

  205. JulStol says:

    Woah,MNW, cream soda, sir!

    Wasn’t an attack on you. Heck, our overlapping use of “cool” was purely coincidental (I was using it as a 1776 reference knowing full well only Bitter was likely to catch it).

    When the folks here at HHR think McSally done good, I’ll take em at their word. Looks like even over on RRH the tide of opinion on performance may be turning.

    “CYHAWKOctober 15, 2018 at 10:34 pm | In reply to ZR2X4

    Not everyone shared your analysis. This from AP political reporter for western states

    @NickRiccardi Now on health insurance. This is Sinema’s main issue but she sounds like she’s reading talking points and McSally is running rings around her.

    Problem for Sinema is she talks cautiously like she’s reading talking points and McSally seems more human — too contentious sometimes but human.”

  206. Phil says:

    Response rate early in that Siena Arizona poll is dreadful. Less than 100 responses out of 4700 calls. Let’s hope the trend isn’t accurate. McSally down by 10.

  207. Phil says:

    5050 calls 104 responses.

    Democratic loon up 52-41.

  208. CG says:

    Updated Gubernatorial Predictions:

    All current Governors: 16 D, 1 I, 33 R

    Alabama- Safe R
    Alaska- Likely R – change from Tossup (R)
    Arizona- Likely R- change from Leans R
    Arkansas- Safe R
    California- Safe D
    Colorado- Leans D- change from Tossup (D)
    Connecticut- Likely D- change from Tossup (D)
    Florida- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
    Georgia- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
    Hawai’i- Safe D
    Idaho- Likely R
    Illinois- Likely D
    Iowa- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
    Kansas- Tossup (D)
    Maine- Leans D
    Maryland- Safe R- change from Likely R
    Massachusetts- Safe R- change from Likely R
    Michigan- Leans D
    Minnesota- Likely D- change from Leans D
    Nebraska- Likely R
    Nevada- Tossup (R)
    New Hampshire- Likely R
    New Mexico- Likely D- change from Leans D
    New York- Safe D- change from Likely D
    Ohio- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
    Oklahoma- Leans R
    Oregon- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
    Pennsylvania- Likely D
    Rhode Island- Likely D- change from Leans D
    South Carolina- Likely R
    South Dakota- Leans R
    Tennessee- Likely R
    Texas- Safe R- change from Likely R
    Vermont- Likely R
    Wisconsin- Leans D
    Wyoming- Safe R

    23 D (7 holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
    27 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossup)

    Democrat net gain of 7
    Republican net loss of 6

  209. BayernFan says:

    any thoughts on the R+1 poll of battleground states I linked in 204 above?

  210. MichiganGuy says:

    Oklahoma Democrat gubernatorial nominee Drew Edmondson says being convicted of multiple DUI’s shouldn’t land you in jail… What?

  211. Justin says:

    Oof! Arizona is now ugly. Numbers went south late. Hopefully not an medication of how people felt the debate went.

  212. Justin says:

    An indication* 🙂

  213. MichiganGuy says:

    #220 Waingro already brought that up in post #24
    That is good news for the Republicans hopefully we can win most of the close races and keep the House. Although, it might be better to lose the House and let the dems try to impeach Trump so, everyone can see the dems don’t care about governing they just want to overturn the 2016 elections.

  214. Mr.Vito says:

    +1 is really more of a wash as far as good/bad news… the majority of them are held by Republicans, so the result should be a positive R number.

  215. Mr.Vito says:

    The only ugly thing about the AZ poll is that McSally is winning Hispanics and losing Whites.

    Leave it in the oven for a while before drawing any conclusions.

  216. Phil says:

    Yeah, a little early to make any real conclusions although I’m a bit surprised that McSally is lagging this bad. About 20 percent of the sample is completed (135) with McSally trailing 50-43.

    Disappointing but maybe misleading after only 135 responses out of 7500 calls. On the other hand, maybe Arizona likes lefty loons.

  217. MichiganGuy says:

    Fred Upton (R-inc) 49%
    Matt Longjohn (D) 46%
    DCCC Analytics

  218. MichiganGuy says:

    David Schweikert (R-inc) 50%
    Anita Malik (D) 36%

  219. MichiganGuy says:

    Jennifer Wexton (D) 48%
    Barbara Comstock (R-inc) 41%

  220. Mr.Vito says:

    The VA-10 poll is not completed.

  221. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-15-2018:
    Rep-152,191 Dem-121,594 Other-1,883 NPA-58,435 Total-334,103
    as of 10/15/2018 10:05AM

    This translates to the following response rate in a true bellwether state:
    Rep-13.1% Dem-9.7%

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet Brah!

  222. Mr.Vito says:

    We’ll have to see. Total requests were up among Dem and non-affiliated from 2014 and down among the GOP. 2014 was a good GOP year, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it.

  223. ReadyFirst says:

    Yup, things can definitely change. What this demonstrates is that there is no blue wave yet. This is a so far, so good sign, and the longer it continues the better as absentees in FL represent roughly a third of the total vote historically.