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Heller Leads By 7% in NV, Romney Leads By 36% in UT

Yesterday Emerson College released a new poll in Nevada that shows Dean Heller has now opened up a 7% lead over Jacky Rosen.

US SENATE – NEVADA (Emerson)
Dean Heller (R-inc) 48%
Jacky Rosen (D) 41%

This poll was done October 10-12 among likely voters. One state Republicans will not be sweating in three weeks is Utah, where Mitt Romney is more than doubling his Democratic opponent according to a new poll from the Salt Lake Tribune.

US SENATE – UTAH (SLT)
Mitt Romney (R) 59%
Jacky Rosen (D) 23%

This poll was done October 3-9 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:34 am
Filed under: General | Comments (167)

167 Responses to “Heller Leads By 7% in NV, Romney Leads By 36% in UT”

  1. Wes says:

    I didn’t know Jacky Rosen was running for Senate in two states, Dave. ?

  2. EML says:

    Jenny Wilson. Close.

  3. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    Here is a link to last night’s Senate debate in Arizona. I watched the last 15 minutes and was riveted by McSally’s passion.
    I went to RRH and found one negative McSally poster. Also, Election Brown bemoaned the fact that McSally was “weak” on the climate change issue. That will cost McSally about 7 1/2 votes in AZ! Geez!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKp8X8UY3mU&feature=youtu.be

  4. Tgca says:

    Cuatro Bebe! Cuatro!

  5. Tina says:

    Heller is doing well.

    I think we hold it.

    Very successful rally in late September with Trump.

    Not too excited about Quittens, who will win. A step down from sen. hatch.

  6. mnw says:

    OK, thx Sheep.

    The posters who liked McS in the debate weren’t there when I was there last night. I’ll see if I can find an objective news report. I’ll have to look hard, but sometimes the local outlets are fair-minded.

    Maybe Dave meant Jackie WILSON, the great early rock ‘n’ roller? Higher and HIIIGHER!

  7. DW says:

    Mason-Dixon

    FL_26

    Mucarsel-Powell (D) 45%
    Curbelo (R) 46%

  8. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Through yesterday’s cumulative mail-in ballot receipts in Florida:

    Here are the official Florida Secretary Of State results for votes cast yesterday in the “Mail-In” vote activity: Republicans – 202,731 votes cast & recorded. Democrats – 162,881 Votes cast & recorded. Others – 2,465 votes cast & recorded. No Party Affiliation – 77,896 votes recorded. (Independents) Republicans have increased their “Mail-In” Ballot vote lead by 10,000 votes in just one day. Their lead over Democrat Party votes cast now stands at: 39,850 votes. A trend of voting mail-in now favors the Republicans heavily.(H/T: freerepublic.com)

  9. DW says:

    Re-posting from below, and looking at their results from last night only confirms my growing sense that Siena is not to be trusted. Stauber (R) is not up 15 in MN_08, and Shalala (D) isn’t up 28 points in FL_27. I mean Mason-Dixon just polled FL_27 and found Shalala losing by 2 points, and Mason-Dixon actually has a long history of polling FL, while Siena hasn’t polled outside NY until this year.

    I know everyone is following these Siena polls vote by vote, and some of these are great news for the GOP some are so-so and some are horrible for the GOP.

    A reminder is in order:

    1) Siena has been a NY pollster historically, and have little experience polling outside NY.

    2) Their NY-Times gimmick is new and they are getting horrible response rates.

    3) Some of their redo polls are radically different from their earlier ones.

    4) Some of their polls are quite different from other known polls of the same seat.

    5) Most importantly, their recent track record has some huge, epic misses:

    NY_11 – GOP primary:

    Siena:

    Grimm 47
    Donovan 37

    Actual Results:

    Grimm 37
    Donovan 63

    Then,

    NY_24 – Dem Primary

    Siena:

    Perez Williams 45
    Balter 32

    Actual Results:

    Perez Williams 37
    Balter 62

    Its hard to be much further off than that. Just because they are churning through a high volume of polls doesn’t mean they are accurate.

  10. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is the hardest-hitting advertisement of this election cycle. It hits Bob Menendez’ sleaziness–WHOA!

    https://twitter.com/CalebJHull

  11. DW says:

    And in fact, here is the new D-Internal release from Shalala’s campaign showing her ahead by only five, with a lot of undecided who weren’t pushed:

    Shalala 44%
    Salazar 39%

    So no way Siena is on target if the best the Shalala campaign can do is +5.

    I am thinking Siena is going to have a lot of embarrassment after election in a number of races. Just like they did in the NY primary races.

  12. DW says:

    WV_03 – Monmouth

    Ojeda (D) 45%
    Miller (R) 48%

  13. DW says:

    The prior Monmouth poll of WV_03 had Ojeda ahead 45/43

  14. DW says:

    NY_27 – Siena (regular poll, not NY Times gimmick poll)

    McMurray (D) 43%
    Collins (R-Inc) 46%

  15. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #13
    Like in the neighboring district(Curbelo’s), Siena is NOT getting responses from the Hispanic portion of the district, which strongly favors Salazar.

    #14
    In that WV District, Manchin(D) is +20 in the Senate race. Lots of ticket splitting.

  16. DW says:

    NY_22 – The Polling Company (R-Int)

    Brindisi (D) 42%
    Tenney (R) 50%

  17. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #15
    According to Real Clear Politics, Monmouth’s last poll of the race was Ojeda(D) +6.

  18. DW says:

    WV-Senate – The Polling Company (R-Int)

    Manchin 49%
    Morrisey 45%

  19. DW says:

    MO-Senate – The Polling Company (R-Int)

    McCaskill 47%
    Hawley 50%

  20. DW says:

    19 – my bad…must have recorded the wrong number in my spreadsheet. thanks

  21. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new CNBC Poll of Adults shows a Dem. +6 in the Congressional Generic Ballot.
    The pollsters and CNBC Analysts foresee no wave in sight.

    Trump at 41/49 approval/disapproval.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/mixed-signals-for-democrat-blue-wave-in-november-cnbc-survey-says.html

  22. dblaikie says:

    I wonder what is going on with the Senate race in Pa. Oh I know that Casey is comfortably ahead according to the polls. But Casey has just released a vicious add about healthcare claiming that Barletta is against preexisting conditions. In the add a women talks about how her twins had cancer and how they wouldn’t have survived if they didn’t have health insurance but if Barletta had his way they would be dead today. Typical hit add. Trouble is it turns out a couple of days before this ad, Barletta informed Casey that his grandchild had Cancer and was very ill — undergoing difficult Chemotherapy.

    When Casey was confronted with this, with true hypocrisy he said he would pull the ad in Barletta’s home town but would continue to play it in the rest of the state.

    Now as I have said earlier I look to other stuff besides just polls in considering an election. Why would Bob Casey release such an ad with such a supposed commanding lead? Is because he is just plain mean? Or is it because he is stupid? Or is it because his internal polls are giving him results that were not expected? I hope it is the latter. Because the people in Pa. don’t deserve a Senator who is either mean or stupid or both.

  23. DW says:

    And wow, don’t even look at Silver’s 538 forecast…he has gone totally nuts. His model is by far the most left of any of them–he makes the Kos forecast look like it was done by Sean Hannity.

    All of the examples below Silver is saying these pollster wrongly favored the GOP candidate:

    Silver is now saying that Elway, the pollster he rates A+ is now over 10 points off in WA_08.

    Mason-Dixon, he says, is 9 points off in FL_27.

    Silver has Siena off 10 points in NY_24 (a district they actually know how to poll)

    He has Gravis off 7 points in MT_01.

    He has SUSA off 9 points in CA_50.

    In FL_16 he has three different reputable pollsters off 3 to 7 points.

    He has Hendrix off by 4 in AR_02.

    In TX_23 he has recent polls off by 3 or more.

    In CA_39 he says Monmouth is off by 10 points.

    in NJ_03 he has Stockton College off by 4.

    All this so Silver can say the CNN generic ballot poll is correct.

  24. dblaikie says:

    23 With three weeks to go CNBC releases a poll of adults! I crack up when I saw that rather than saying adults they said “Americans.” I have to believe that they had at least a registered voter screen. In fact this late in the cycle I would wager that they screened for likely voters. If that is true, and I believe it is, they didn’t like what they saw. I mean read DW’s post you have to under gird the CNN poll and others like it.

  25. MichiganGuy says:

    #21 DW, that poll was paid for by Citizens United
    Political Victory Fund a conservative PAC so, take it with a grain of salt.

  26. MichiganGuy says:

    Donald J. Trump
    ?Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    Pocahontas (the bad version), sometimes referred to as Elizabeth Warren, is getting slammed. She took a bogus DNA test and it showed that she may be 1/1024, far less than the average American. Now Cherokee Nation denies her, “DNA test is useless.” Even they don’t want her. Phony!
    .
    Now that her claims of being of Indian heritage have turned out to be a scam and a lie, Elizabeth Warren should apologize for perpetrating this fraud against the American Public. Harvard called her “a person of color” (amazing con), and would not have taken her otherwise!
    .
    Thank you to the Cherokee Nation for revealing that Elizabeth Warren, sometimes referred to as Pocahontas, is a complete and total Fraud!
    .
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1052168909665824769

  27. DW says:

    Trying to keep up with the flood of data…here is my update:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 5 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04, OR_05

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  28. MichiganGuy says:

    Donald J. Trump
    ?Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    The United States has strongly informed the President of Honduras that if the large Caravan of people heading to the U.S. is not stopped and brought back to Honduras, no more money or aid will be given to Honduras, effective immediately!
    .
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1052183647552491521

  29. mnw says:

    AZ Senate debate:

    OK, I completed my own research on last nite’s AZ debate, which included watching the last 15 minutes of it.

    I don’t care for what I saw. I hope DW’s response to it in #3 above is more typical than mine. It may well be. I thought “treason” was an unfortunate choice of words, & that’s the only thing the media reports are talking about this morning.

    I thought McSally seemed poorly prepared for the hostile moderators. There is no good reason for that. Did she really think they were going to be friendlies? You prepare for that by rehearsing with people acting the part of hostile moderators. I don’t think McS did that.

    RE: MO SEN post 21:

    That’s somewhat alarming for what is in effect a GOP internal.

  30. DW says:

    Updated dashboard based on forecasters:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 145 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    NY_23 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.1
    CA_22 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OH_10 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    AK_01 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IN_09 R | 154 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_07 R | 155 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_06* R | 163 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CA_04 R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    TX_21* R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_31 R | 168 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_18 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    MI_07 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    CA_21 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    PA_16 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_11 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.1
    CA_50 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_07 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    MT_01 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    VA_05 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.5
    AR_02 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_10 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    IL_13 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    TX_23 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    NC_02 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.6
    IL_14 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.4
    WV_03* R | 197 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    NM_02* R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    IL_12 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    MN_08* D | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.6
    PA_01 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 0.5
    FL_26 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | 0.5
    TX_32 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    MN_01* D | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    ME_02 R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KY_06 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    MI_08 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    IA_03 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    IL_06 R | 217 | Ln D | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    NY_22 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_25 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.4
    WA_08* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    FL_27* R | 209 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Toss | -1.1
    KS_03 R | 208 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.3
    MN_02 R | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_03* D | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8
    CO_06 R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NJ_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    MI_11* R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NV_04* D | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 197 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    AZ_02* R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    IA_01 R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    PA_08 D | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    MN_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    CA_07 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NH_02 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    OR_05 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  31. Todd McCain says:

    21. Agreed. This is not a good number for a GOP internal. I am concerned that Hawley just cant seem to shake Claire. She is a tough one.

  32. DW says:

    And based on polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    OR_05 – D – 56/33 (Gravis-internal) | 20
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    AZ_06 – R – 50/36 (Siena) | 14
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 49/34 (Siena) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 50/46 (D-Int) | 8
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 50/43 (CNU) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 6
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) | 45/41 (PPP-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 44/41 (SUSA) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (Lake Res.) | 50/46 (ASR) | 46/43 (PPP-D) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 46/46 (U of UT) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 46/43 (Siena) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 43/45 (D-Int) | 2
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 46/45 (Mason-Dixon) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/46 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 48/43 (Monmouth) | 1
    PA_01 – R – 50/46 (Monmouth) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 42/48 (Siena) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 39/44 (D-Int) | 1
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 47/45 (Stockton U) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 34/36 (Emerson) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NV_03* – D – 39/41 (Emerson) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | -3
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | -6
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | -6
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | 34/45 (DeSales U) | -8
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | 35/40 (Emerson) | -8
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | 25/44 (Emerson) | -23

  33. DW says:

    So looking at my dashboard of actual polling one can see that house control is a tossup, with a slight edge to the GOP.

    So for Silver to be right, the majority of polling this cycle has been biased in the favor of the GOP–which would be a first.

  34. jason says:

    If Rosen wins in 2 states he will control 2% of the Senate.

    Rosen… aye, aye

    Rosen… no, no

    Rosen… aye, no

    Rosen… no, aye

  35. mnw says:

    RAS today:

    51/48 (37/39)

  36. jason says:

    “Brazilian Trump” Bolsonaro at 94% today on Predictit to win second round.

    MBGA!

  37. Tina says:

    Michael J. Morrison
    @OfficeOfMike
    Follow
    BREAKING: Bill Kristol and Ana Navarro reveal their tests results: 1/1024th Republican.
    9:07 PM – 15 Oct 2018

  38. jason says:

    I would post my DNA results but I am worried someone would comment negatively on the llama DNA, obviously some cross contamination of the sample.

  39. jason says:

    Has Walt posted his DNA yet?

    I hear Lucy was his grandmother.

  40. Wes says:

    Much of Walt’s DNA degraded to undetectable levels billions of years ago.

  41. Wes says:

    I’d take a DNA test, but I’d probably give some kind of contaminated Rorschach Test.

  42. Tina says:

    Trump
    For the record, I have no financial interests in Saudi Arabia (or Russia, for that matter). Any suggestion that I have is just more FAKE NEWS (of which there is plenty)!
    6:15 AM – Oct 16, 2018

  43. hugh says:

    A question. Does Nate Silver have a paid subscription service? if he does that tells all you need to know. follow the money first, and then the political bias second.

  44. jason says:

    So in a nutshell Dems are claiming Fauxcahontas is Native American but Kanye West is not black.

  45. NYCmike says:

    “I thought McSally seemed poorly prepared for the hostile moderators. There is no good reason for that. Did she really think they were going to be friendlies? You prepare for that by rehearsing with people acting the part of hostile moderators. I don’t think McS did that.”

    -mnw,

    Are you allowed to make such a statement?

    Wes? jason? What’s the ruling?

  46. NYCmike says:

    Synema is the better looking of the 2, which is probably the first time a Dem was better-looking than the Republican, when it comes to females.

    Will that affect the male vote?

  47. EML says:

    No, she is a lesbian

  48. EML says:

    Fauxcohantas was clearly gearing up for a 2020 run. Despite the leftist media trying to carry water for her, she is being brutalized on social media today. Does this squash her chances? Do Democrats attack her in the primary? Good point brought up yesterday – how will black Americans feel about a white woman claiming minority status? I would love for her to be the nominee based on this alone. It would be even better if Trump took a test, it came back like 2% sub Saharan African and he mockingly called himself the second black president throughout the campaign.

  49. Mr.Vito says:

    Caleb SkHull

    ?Verified account @CalebJHull
    24h24 hours ago

    Rachel Dolezal should take a DNA test that proves she is 1/1024 African and then demand an apology from America.
    27 replies 322 retweets 1,464 likes

  50. dblaikie says:

    I watched a good bit of the debate. Kristen was like a robot. Martha came across as a real person. She wasn’t smooth but she was honest.

  51. Robbie says:

    Excellent message to be making with three weeks to go.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump

    “Federal Judge throws out Stormy Danials lawsuit versus Trump. Trump is entitled to full legal fees.” @FoxNews Great, now I can go after Horseface and her 3rd rate lawyer in the Great State of Texas. She will confirm the letter she signed! She knows nothing about me, a total con!

  52. Robbottie says:

    I like Robots.

  53. mnw says:

    dbl

    As stated, I hope AZ viewers saw the debate as you & Sheep did.

    I’m surprised that the stupid Lieawatha deal has dominated the news cycle, while Hugin’s explosive ad about Menendez & underage hookers has received relatively little attention.

  54. Robbie says:

    Calling your pornstar mistress “horseface” three weeks from election day when women are already strongly against you is the true mark of a stable genius.

  55. EML says:

    The world already knows that Trump says inappropriate, crass, and vulgar things. Everybody already knows this, so Trump can say whatever he wants with no repercussions. Pretty stupid to think that this tweet moves the needle.

  56. Robbie says:

    Ariel Edwards-Levy
    @aedwardslevy

    Also worth noting:
    a) Trump’s approval rating is in a better place now than it’s been for a while
    b) That rise corresponded with the Kavanaugh news cycle eclipsing the WH, and Trump acting (for him) more-or-less like a “typical president” and campaigning for Republicans

  57. Wes says:

    Actually, EML, Sinema is bisexual rather than a lesbian.

  58. DW says:

    Some at RRH picking up the discussion of Silver’s hard left turn in his forecast model despite recent poll showing tightening. One person pointed to the 2:1 fund raising advantage pouring into these house races the Dems have.

    Honestly I think this is just Silver just upset–you can understand it that he has been waiting since 2010 to see the reverse where the Dems pick up a net of 66 seats. To see this unraveling before his eyes when he thought for sure he had it must be disheartening.

    Make no mistake, the House could still flip, and a lot can happen in 3 weeks. But there is no huge blue wave forthcoming. GOP gains in the senate, and the house is right on the edge. Could go either way. I would give it a range of D+15 to D+25. The high end of that range could go higher if things go south, but right now the momentum seems to be on the GOP side, and we could be looking at the lower end of the range.

  59. EML says:

    41% England, Wales & Western Europe
    22% Eastern Europe and Russia
    18% Baltic States
    14% Ireland & Scotland
    3% Germanic Europe
    1% Finnish
    1% European Jewish

    I’m probably related to bitter’s wife. I will now demand to have rosh hashanah and yom kippur off.

  60. Wes says:

    Mnw can assess the debate however he feels, Mikey. At least he wasn’t defending a boneheaded statement claiming God intends women to become pregnant by rape, so there is that.

  61. jason says:

    Wes? jason? What’s the ruling?”

    You are a moron, I will let wes give his own ruling.

  62. DW says:

    Silver continues today in his fantasy that the Dems have a greater chance of taking the senate than the GOP has of holding the house.

  63. Robbie says:

    EML says:
    October 16, 2018 at 11:19 am
    The world already knows that Trump says inappropriate, crass, and vulgar things. Everybody already knows this, so Trump can say whatever he wants with no repercussions. Pretty stupid to think that this tweet moves the needle.

    – Ah, yes. The “we already know he’s scum, but he’s our scum” argument.

    Trump’s approval rating had risen over the last month or so precisely because he wasn’t doing this kind of stupid sh!t. He was acting like a normal president who was out campaigning for Republican candidates. And you know what? It was working.

    Now, every Republican candidate, especially women candidates, will be forced to comment on this nonsense. What do you think Martha McSally would rather be doing? Focusing on Sinema’s idiotic past comments or dodging and weaving about whether Trump was right to call one of his mistresses a horseface?

    Do you think it’s smart to give Democrat women who are in danger of losing like Heitkamp, McCaskill, Sinema the chance to go on offense even if it’s just for a few days?

    If this BS doesn’t move the needle, should Trump go after Mika’s facelift again? Should he claim Megyn Kelly is bleeding from wherever again? If these tweets are no biggie, then he should be able to tweet them for the next 21 days with not see any problems for Republican candidates locked in tough races, right?

  64. Barrett says:

    Good poll numbers, that’s what I like to see.

    #36 – I think your analysis is more accurate than Silver’s. They use that CANTOR model that really doesn’t do justice to a majority of the districts.

  65. Bitterlaw says:

    DB – All of the Dems running for Senate and House from PA and NJ are hammering their opponents over healthcare. Casey is just following the script. He is not mean or stupid. He knows how to win.

    Trump is toxic in the Philadelphia suburbs. I think several GOP seats would flip even if the old districts were in place.

  66. NYCmike says:

    “No, she is a lesbian”

    -She is a bisexual…..she enjoys women, and witches.

  67. jason says:

    I thought McSally seemed poorly prepared for the hostile moderators. There is no good reason for that. Did she really think they were going to be friendlies? You prepare for that by rehearsing with people acting the part of hostile moderators. I don’t think McS did that.”

    mnw and nyc would have preferred Chemtrail Ward to win the debate and lose by 20.

    Send a message!

  68. DW says:

    I am going to make the decision to update my Dashboard by removing 538’s ‘Classic’ forecast for ‘Lite’ because whatever sauce he is using in the ‘Classic’ is so far out of whack that it is pointless to use it. There is no way A+ rated Elway polls Dino Rossi 10 points stronger than he actually is. So I am going to use the ‘Lite’ option because it is based on actual polling and not Silver’s putting his thumb on the scale.

    Stay tuned for updated dashboard.

  69. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is VERY CONCERNED Trump called a pornstar horseface.

    Nobody else cares.

  70. jason says:

    EML is Jewish?

    Dave, did he use that to get into the HHR comment section?

  71. NYCmike says:

    jason would have been a great NHL goalie…..nobody can deflect shots like he does!

    Forget about llama-DNA, more like stegosaurus-DNA. What a hard head!

  72. NYCmike says:

    “mnw and nyc would have preferred Chemtrail Ward to win the debate and lose by 20.”

    -Exactly……despite mnw’s clear statement once McSally entered the race that he would support her, and my clear statement that I would support the primary winner……

  73. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag thinks a senate race could hinge on the President calling a porn star horseface.

    Either he is really stupid or he thinks the voters are really stupid.

    Maybe both.

  74. EML says:

    I am more Jewish than Fauxcahontas is Native American.

  75. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 16, 2018 at 11:37 am
    Amoral Scumbag is VERY CONCERNED Trump called a pornstar horseface.
    Nobody else cares.

    – Really? If this garbage is great, then why is Trump’s standing with women in the toilet?

    If you think no one cares, then he can do this crap every day for the next 21 days and it will have no effect on the election, right?

    Should Martha McSally run a commercial praising Trump for calling one of his mistresses a horseface? Should Comstock run on calling Stormy Daniels horseface?

  76. Mr.Vito says:

    Why the long face?

  77. jason says:

    and my clear statement that I would support the primary winner……”

    Ah yes….

    First let’s support the deadender loser and weaken the candidate that could actually win the GE, and THEN pretend to believe in “unity” by announcing support for the only candidate that could win.

    This was the brilliant thinking that cost Rs at least winnable senate seats.

    Brilliant.

  78. MichiganGuy says:

    Texas Senate:
    .
    Cruz 49%
    O’Rourke 45%
    .
    Tulchin Research (D) Poll
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/19yHyxK1LbyEJQOKl34jHL3Wy8iZvTU62/view

  79. Robbie says:

    What the deadenders never seem to realize is their support of clownish candidates like Chemtrail Kelli Ward delayed McSally’s efforts to define Sinema early when it might have made the race a walk over.

    Instead, the usual suspects who supported Buck, Angle, COD, Mourdock, and the rest got behind a clown simply because she mouthed the right things that make Rush wet in his pants.

  80. jason says:

    Really? If this garbage is great, ”

    LOL

    Scumbag liar moves goalposts again.

    Who said it was great?

    I said nobody cared except those that already have TDS.

    The idea someone is going to vote for a Dem because a porn star got called horseface is a theory only you could believe in.

  81. Hugh says:

    It is almost impossible for a defendant to get awarded attorneys fees. I have seen cases that went to arbitration where in amount was determined then turned down by the plaintiff. The case then goes to court with the plaintive losing. In many states the judge can then award attorneys fees to the defendant. But in one such case the judge awarded attorney fees to the plaintiff. Maybe bitter can comment but this lawsuit against trump had to be absolutely ridiculous for the judge to award him attorneys fees.

  82. jason says:

    jason would have been a great NHL goalie…..nobody can deflect shots like he does!”

    Suck it Bitter, that should be worth some points.

  83. Redmen4ever says:

    Kyrsten Sinema – wrong spot on the crazy-hot matrix.

    Back in the day, James Bond was the cure.

  84. jason says:

    EML says:
    October 16, 2018 at 11:40 am

    I am more Jewish than Fauxcahontas is Native American.”

    I am sorry, but don’t try to get into the A-hole Club by claiming minority preference rights.

    My status as the only Inca-Hispanic-Fuegian-Tupi-Guarani-Amish applicant in A-hole history already covered that angle.

  85. Mr.Vito says:

    I happen to think calling her ‘horseface’ was a bad idea.

  86. Mr.Vito says:

    At the very least, he neutralized his win.

  87. MichiganGuy says:

    Benchmark Politics (D) claiming democrats will pick up 33 seats.
    .
    https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/1052216308346040320

  88. dblaikie says:

    Bitter after reading your post I can only conclude that Casey is mean. Unlike the other candidates Casey’s opponent has a grandchild who is very sick with cancer. I guess Casey has a Grinch sized heart with his huge concession of pulling this ad in Scranton. And by the way my original question stands why, if he is so far ahead, does he a vicious hit ad in campaign he has (supposedly) already won?

    However I bow to your opinion that women don’t like Trump in places like Bucks County.

  89. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag’s DNA just came in:

    50% MSM toadie

    50% Useful idiot

  90. dblaikie says:

    “does he make a vicious hit ad in a …

  91. MichiganGuy says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 16, 2018 at 12:00 pm

    I happen to think calling her ‘horseface’ was a bad idea.
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Horseface is trending on Twitter. LOL

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/horseface?src=tren&data_id=tweet%3A1052222850730344449

  92. jason says:

    At the very least, he neutralized his win.”

    Maybe.

    IMO he didn’t win any votes for Rs in close races by winning the case and he didn’t lose any votes for Rs in close races by calling her horseface.

  93. DW says:

    updated dashboard using 538’s Lite version, which is more based on actual polling instead of Silver’s secret sauce.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 144 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    PA_14* D | 145 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NY_23 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 147 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 148 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    CA_22 R | 151 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 153 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_10 R | 154 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.4
    AK_01 R | 155 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 161 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    TX_31 R | 163 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_06* R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    FL_18 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_15* R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 3.2
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
    AR_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    PA_10 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    TX_23 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    UT_04 R | 194 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
    NC_02 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    IL_14 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
    NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    WV_03* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1
    OH_01 R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.8
    VA_02 R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    IL_12 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    MN_08* D | 203 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.6
    FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    MN_01* D | 205 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | Toss | 0.2
    ME_02 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_32 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    CA_48 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    CA_10 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    KY_06 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NY_19 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 215 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_25 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4
    NJ_03 R | 210 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    FL_27* R | 209 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Tlt R | Toss | -0.5
    NV_03* D | 208 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    NJ_11* R | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    MI_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.3
    AZ_01 D | 194 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -2.8
    MN_07 D | 192 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    PA_08 D | 191 | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -3.7
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    NJ_05 D | 189 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 187 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 184 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.1
    FL_13 D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  94. jason says:

    rump’s approval rating had risen over the last month or so precisely because he wasn’t doing this kind of stupid sh!t.”

    LOL

    Amoral Scumbag thinks Trump would be more popular if he followed Amoral Scumbag’s “recommendations”.

    That is because if Trump had followed any of his recommendations he wouldn’t be President.

  95. DW says:

    “Benchmark Politics (D) claiming democrats will pick up 33 seats.”

    Of course they will say that. Pelosi said on election day 2016 that Democrats would take control and she would be speaker. Its called projecting confidence and both parties do it.

  96. DW says:

    Of course is a Dem group says they will get 33, then they sure aren’t going to get the 40 Robbie was predicting.

  97. MichiganGuy says:

    According to the weekly Standard their model shows Republicans have a 79.6% chance of holding the Senate.
    .
    https://www.weeklystandard.com/swingseat-senate-election-model/

  98. Mr.Vito says:

    This guy doesn’t know when to shut up either.

    Michael Avenatti
    ?Verified account @MichaelAvenatti

    .@realDonaldTrump – tens of millions of Americans are tired of your fraud, lies, and corruption. They are equally tired of your attacks on women, especially the ones who you have had sex with while cheating on your wives. We (and the UN) are laughing AT YOU, not with you. #Basta

  99. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    New CNN poll(H/T: RRH)

    Rafael Cruz 52%
    Robert O’Rourke 45%

  100. DW says:

    I would gladly swap three Texas senate polls for one Indiana senate poll.

  101. DW says:

    I had given up on CA_48, but upon further review am putting it back in the pool of uncertainty:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04, OR_05

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  102. Mr.Vito says:

    In fairness, Stormy is hardly a victim here after talking about Trump personally.

  103. Mr.Vito says:

    And this one doesn’t know when to close her mouth either.

    Stormy Daniels
    ?Verified account @StormyDaniels

    Stormy Daniels Retweeted Donald J. Trump

    Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present your president. In addition to his…umm…shortcomings, he has demonstrated his incompetence, hatred of women and lack of self control on Twitter AGAIN! And perhaps a penchant for bestiality. Game on, Tiny.

  104. Todd McCain says:

    It is impossible to think MT and IN aren’t trending the R way, considering overall Senate picture.

  105. Todd McCain says:

    Part of the real problem in the House is that we are just getting bulldozed in the money advantage.

  106. jason says:

    “Trey Benet
    ? @trey_benet31

    Not gonna lie, this test proves that she might have been telling as much as 0.09% of the truth. That’s got to be a record for her.”

  107. Tina says:

    Muh horse face.

    Is this the latest “scandal”?

  108. DW says:

    RRH is hanging on every response of the Siena polls. I admit to having gotten caught up in it for a while too…but more and more I am convinced that on election night we will be wondering why we were so taken by them. Some of their polls will be way off, some will be on the mark–like a stopped clock is correct twice a day.

  109. mnw says:

    jason 72

    Yeah, NYT is right. That’s just a lie.

  110. Tina says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1052198248226742272

    Cn an n crudIlla claims that LIEWANTHA hurt herself.

    This is such an unforced error. The Jebots should be celebrating because Hillary may now be the front runner.

  111. DW says:

    Speaking of Siena, VA_05, PA_08, FL_15 added to their pile of work tonight.

    They will probably show D leads in all three is my guess. PA_08 they will show 58/30 sort of D lead, VA_05 will be D+10 and FL_15 D+5 or so. Just my hunch.

  112. mnw says:

    110 Todd

    I can’t get to where u are on those races, unfortunately.

    We know Rosendale (R-MT) put out an INTERNAL some weeks back claiming… a TIE. Therefore, we know that Rosendale has access to internal polls, but he’s gone silent. Plus, we know Tester was likely ahead back when Rosendale proclaimed a tie.

  113. jason says:

    I think if Rs win IN or MO they will win MT, NV and AZ and FL. These things tend to move in concert.

    I have a feeling Rs will either have a good night or a bad night, and not something in between.

  114. GeauxLSU says:

    RE# 110 and RE# 118…Tester has gone very negative and is attacking hard in MT. Makes me think he is worried about what he is seeing in polls. Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

  115. Wobbles says:

    Tina says:
    October 16, 2018 at 1:18 pm

    Muh horse face.

    Is this the latest “scandal”?”

    Yes, I am very excited about it.

    This could be the greatest thing since the number of dead in Puerto Rico EVERYONE is still talking about.

  116. lisab says:

    NYCmike says:

    Synema is the better looking of the 2, which is probably the first time a Dem was better-looking than the Republican, when it comes to females.

    Will that affect the male vote?

    EML says:

    No, she is a lesbian
    —————————————-

    yeah, guys hate pretty bisexual women

  117. Waingro says:

    Martinez is still going to win. But they are panicked. Between this and the $$$ spent on Beto, libs are literally throwing money in a fire pit.

    David Wright
    ?Verified account @DavidWright_CNN

    Senate Majority PAC, leading Dem super PAC, going up w/ a $3 million statewide ad buy in the New Jersey Senate race — their first spending in the race

  118. DW says:

    An update on the Siena house polls:

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:
    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.
    CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.
    PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.
    AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.
    MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.
    CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.
    MN_02 – 39/51. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.
    MI_11 – 38/45. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.
    NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.
    CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.
    CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.
    KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.
    IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.
    KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.
    IL_06 – 39/40. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.
    TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.
    NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.
    MI_11 – 38/45. A lot of undecided at this point, but still a decent lead for the Dem.
    PA_01 – 42/50. Suprising result given the GOP is expected to hold this seat.
    KS_03 – 37/50*. Probably time to stick a fork in Yoder, doing worse than the last Siena poll.
    ME_02 – 40/47*. A complete flip from their first poll which had an R+6 lead.
    NJ_11 – 36/51*. A blowout Dem flip.
    FL_27 – 30/58*. Curious given Mason-Dixon just found R+2 in their poll.
    CO_06 – 39/46*. A little closer than last time they polled it. Perhaps Coffman closing some or prior poll was junk.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:
    MN_08 – 43/42. Slim lead for Stauber trying to flip seat to R.
    NC_09 – 47/42. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.
    WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.
    CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.
    NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.
    NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.
    KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.
    MI_08 – 47/44. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.
    ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.
    TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.
    VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.
    OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.
    IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.
    VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.
    TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.
    FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.
    WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.
    NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.
    WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.
    NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R
    TX_31 – 53/38. Blowout and a wasted poll.
    PA_16 – 50/42. No blue wave here.
    NC_13 – 47/41. No blue wave here either.
    NY_01 – 49/41. No surprise on this seat.
    IL_14 – 47/43. Close, and most have this one as Lean R.
    MN_08 – 49/34. Blowout lead for Stauber. Prior poll was just R+1
    AZ_06 – 50/36. Not a surprise, and a waste of a poll.
    WV_03 – 45/42*. Not as good as their first poll, but still in progress.
    TX_23 – 54/37*. A blowout – last time they polled was R+9
    WA_03 – 50/39*. No surprise here.

    *In Progress

  119. DW says:

    From RRH:

    DCCC canceling buys in MN-8

  120. Wes says:

    Stormie is implying Trump is poorly endowed. She slept with him. I guess she must enjoy small things then.

  121. lisab says:

    Stormie is implying Trump is poorly endowed. She slept with him. I guess she must enjoy small things then.
    ———————————–

    they both gain from this

    stormy gets publicity

    and

    everyone is reminded that the dems have been going after trump on mistresses when they did not say anything about clinton

    and the dems continue to attack based on items they lose on instead of something they do better on like healthcare.

  122. sandiegocitizen says:

    26. Actually think she enjoyed getting paid.

  123. Tina says:

    Porn Lawyer is so stupid.

    The “in Texas” portion of trumps tweet has to do with porn lawyers support of Beta and the upcoming Trump,rally for Cruz.

  124. Waingro says:

    What a clown show this primary is going to be:

    Byron Tau
    ?Verified account @ByronTau

    “I’m likely to do it,” Julian Castro tells Rolling Stone about running for president. “I’ll make a final decision after November, but I’m inclined to do it.”

  125. Tina says:

    And trump has a point:

    The Jebot media advocated for the lawsuit.

    However, when Stormy lost, they shut up about it,

    Associating the word Horseface to the lawsuiit now requires the media to mention Stormy losing.

  126. sandiegocitizen says:

    Trump’s tweet also gets the Saudi murder controversy off the front page of the news.

  127. sandiegocitizen says:

    A lot of Trump’s inflammatory tweets appear to be diversionary tactics to manipulate the news. He knows the press is to dumb to realize they are being had.

  128. Wes says:

    The still eminently bangable Suzanne Somersault turns 72 today.

  129. CG says:

    I was told before that Suzanne Somers was once married to a distant relative of mine.

    I am not sure how exactly we would be related, but it’s almost certainly closer than Elizabeth Warren and her Native American ancestor.

  130. CG says:

    And out of the three blondes who roomed with Jack and Janet, I would rank Chrissy # 3.

  131. NYCmike says:

    “The still eminently bangable…..”

    -And Mourdock is the misogynist……

  132. NYCmike says:

    “And out of the three blondes who roomed with Jack and Janet, I would rank Chrissy # 3.”

    -Mrs Roper would have been the most fun, personally. She was a walk on the wild side…..

  133. CG says:

    I was Team Terri at a young age.

  134. Tina says:

    Looks like Hillarys Scooby Doo medical van had an accident on its way to Menances fundraiser.

  135. Tina says:

    Glen Simpson just plead the 5th at a congressional hearing,

    Seems like he is in jeopardy for perjury based on previous tstimonty that contradicts Bruce Ohrs testimony,

  136. Tina says:

    ‘Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’
    @NolteNC
    15m
    The judge said “Neigh, neigh” to this lawsuit. twitter.com/resurgent/stat…
    View details ·
    ‘Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’ ‘Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’
    @NolteNC
    16m
    ME: Trump just called @StormyDaniels “Ms. Horseface.” *wife bursts out laughing* WIFE: *still laughing* That really is beneath the dignity of the office. ME: But you’re laughing. WIFE: We she kind of does have a horseface.

  137. dblaikie says:

    I hope McSally stands by her statement in the debate. Back when Sinema gave her interview this Country was at war with the Taliban. Americans were in combat, many of them wounded. Some of them dead. And she says basically that it is ok, that she doesn’t care if someone goes off and joins the Taliban!! I wonder what would have happened in 1942 if someone said, “Go ahead join the German Army, it doesn’t matter to me.” In my view that interview was worse than Jane Fonda posing by an anti-air craft gun during Vietnam.

  138. Bitterlaw says:

    I disagree. Fonda was worse.

  139. CG says:

    “Go ahead join the German Army, it doesn’t matter to me.”

    Perhaps, they would be Charles Lindbergh and would one day have their “America First” isolationist rhetoric parroted by a President.

  140. Tina says:

    Sources Say’ is Greek for ‘Fake News’
    @NolteNC
    Follow
    The same media that called the Hispanic George Zimmerman “white” is calling Elizabeth Warren, who is 1023/1024 white, a Cherokee Indian.
    7:38 AM – 16 Oct 2018

    The media are broken.

  141. CG says:

    Cher needs to do an updated version of “Half Breed.”

  142. dblaikie says:

    144 Fonda was bad. At least she never ran for the United States Senate.

    145 Sorry Lindbergh tried with all his might to keep us out of the war. Once the war started he kept his mouth shut. You better check your history. Lindebergh when the war started actually gathered information against the Nazi regime for our Country. Check it out and be careful what you say.

  143. CG says:

    Fonda’s husband ran for the U.S. Senate during their marriage.

  144. CG says:

    History has shown the pre-WWII Lindberg to be wrong.

    If Sinema was opposed to the U.S. fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan after 9/11, she has that in common with DJT, based on things he has said.

    It was an extreme minority position at the time and should have remained so through memory.

  145. DW says:

    IA_01 – Polling Company (R-Int)

    Finkenauer (D) 45%
    Blum (R-inc) 43%

  146. Mr.Vito says:

    Ryan T. Anderson
    ?Verified account @RyanTAnd
    7h7 hours ago

    Remember when the city of Atlanta fired their fire chief because he wrote a book that had one page defending marriage as union of husband and wife? Well they just paid him $1.2 million for violating his rights. Great job @AllianceDefends

  147. DW says:

    SUSA – CA Senate:

    Feinstein (D-Inc) 40%
    de Leon (D) 26%

  148. GF says:

    A good historian (and indeed, an impartial observer of any kind) knows full well that to put either a) modern values upon historical figures and populations is a major faux pas. We cannot judge their actions strictly through our lenses of 202/hindsight and contemporary norms. Americans as a whole were isolationist precisely because Europe threw away the hard-won “peace” of 1919 (not that it was actually peace, Marshall Foch was correct in his observation that is was an “armistice for twenty years”); they did not want to see their sons, fathers, and husbands die for apparently nothing all over again. In the long view they were wrong, but there was a solid justification considering what they had been through.

    Ironically, the waste of 1914-1918 is the greater tragedy; some 9 million were lost to prevent a German-led customs and economic union on the continent. Fast forward to today, and what do we have?

    A German-led customs and economic union on the continent…that they all VOLUNTEERED to join!

  149. Mr.Vito says:

    Ben Shapiro
    ?Verified account @benshapiro
    2h2 hours ago

    If you’re not laughing at this news cycle if you’re 20, you have no heart. If you’re not laughing at this news cycle at 40, you have no brain.
    222 replies 741 retweets 5,694 likes

  150. Mr.Vito says:

    https://freebeacon.com/politics/bill-nelson-sends-fundraising-email-hurricane-relief-build-donor-lists/

    “Sen. Bill Nelson (D., Fla.) on Wednesday sent out an email encouraging people to donate money for hurricane disaster relief with a list of nonprofit groups that provide aid, but he did not disclose that the links for each group direct users to the website of ActBlue, an organization that helps Democrats raise money and saves donor emails for future fundraising efforts.”

  151. DW says:

    MI_11 – R Internal

    Epstein (R) 35
    Stevens (D) 36

    Almost one-third not pushed, and still trailing, not exactly good news from an R-Internal

  152. CG says:

    New Computer Screen Words Appearing on Website Front Page

  153. Mr.Vito says:

    The money from MN-08 was redirected to MN-01 and MN-02.

    So Lewis may still be in it.

  154. dblaikie says:

    Sorry, CG, but her words go far beyond a war protest. She was saying she had no problem with fellow citizens joining our enemy so they could kill more Americans. How you want to cut it, those are treasonous words.

  155. ReadyFirst says:

    NT

  156. Mr.Vito says:

    TIME
    ?Verified account @TIME

    Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test shows how she’s weaponizing transparency

    ……………….

    Someone put this rag out of its misery.

  157. CG says:

    I would consider her words as a young Green Party activist to be “borderline treason”, which are the same words I used at the time to describe the stated desire of a presumptive major party Presidential nominee when he publicly asked a hostile foreign regime to illegally hack an American citizen.

    There is no way that Sinema should be able to win, considering what is in her past. I am not sure McSally handled it the right way though. Using the word “treason” in a debate is what is going to get all the attention, as to if it is over the top or not, and not the substance of the argument against what Sinema was actually saying and her apparent refusal to acknowledge or apologize for it.

    It is also tougher for a Republican candidate, even someone with demonstrated patriotism and service such as Col. McSally to use this as effectively as possible for political purposes, since the message from the GOP is now inconsistent and muddled when it comes to things such as whether or not it was the right thing to fight the Taliban after 9/11. I miss the days when that was not even a debate in the Republican Party and I am sure McSally does as well.

  158. lisab says:

    A lot of Trump’s inflammatory tweets appear to be diversionary tactics to manipulate the news.
    —————————————-

    i would say almost all of them,

    and the press, dems and trolls fall for it every time

  159. lisab says:

    menendez is in deep doo doo

    his campaign is in a free fall

    hugin’s new ad is brutal!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=x412sfTmQuc

  160. lisab says:

    schumer has just dumped 3 million into menendez’s campaign because of this ad

  161. MichiganGuy says:

    #165 lisab, that would only be a problem if, he was a Republican. He’s a democrat so no big deal.