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Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 7% in TX

We have a new poll for the US Senate race in Texas from CNN and it shows what many other recent polls have shown, Ted Cruz opening up a discernable lead over the media darling Beto O’Rourke.

US SENATE – TEXAS (CNN)
Ted Cruz (R-inc) 52%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

This poll was done October 9-13 among 716 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 2:30 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (379)

379 Responses to “Cruz Leads O’Rourke By 7% in TX”

  1. Jeff G. says:

    Frist!

  2. ReadyFirst says:

    dos

  3. Barrett says:

    #MeThree

  4. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-16-2018:
    Rep-205,297 Dem-166,409 Other-2,497 NPA-79,239 Total-453,442 as of 10/16/2018 10:04AM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-6.6% Dem-5.4%

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  5. Phil says:

    Beto just needs a little more money. He’s almost there. Dig just a little deeper, Dems.

  6. ReadyFirst says:

    All this talk about DNA results made me decide to go back on ancestry.com and look mine up again. For those who have done DNA testing with ancestry, I was surprised to see they had updated my test with new percentages based on advances in DNA testing. I was disappointed to see that my 1% Eastern Jewish, 1% SE Asian and 4% Iberian peninsula went away. Turns out, I’m just a boring white guy from Great Britan and Western Europe who can no longer claim I’m Hispanic on the next cencus.

  7. Mr.Vito says:

    Rep-6.6% Dem-5.4%

    Shouldn’t these be closer to 15%?

  8. Tina says:

    The last Beta-Cruz debate is tonight.

  9. ReadyFirst says:

    7. Vito, I calculated percentage different this time as percentage of the total votes provided (mailed out). In an earlier post, I had it as a percentage of each individual parties absentee provided. I didn’t feel that was as accurate a representation of what is going on so I used the total votes provided.

  10. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    From the prior thread:

    145. “Sorry Lindbergh tried with all his might to keep us out of the war. Once the war started he kept his mouth shut. You better check your history. Lindebergh when the war started actually gathered information against the Nazi regime for our Country. Check it out and be careful what you say.”

    Actually, Lindbergh volunteered for military service, despite being in his 40’s. He served in New Guinea and flew over 25 combat missions, serving with the Marines, even shooting down a Japanese plane.

    Here is a quote from a biography by A. Scot Berg: “Lindbergh was indefatigable. He few flew more missions than was normally expected of a regular combat pilot. He dived-bombed enemy positions, sank barges and patrolled our landing forces in Noemfoor Island. He was shot at by almost every anti-aircraft guns the Nips had in western New Guineas. By then Lindbergh had logged more than twenty-five combat missions and close to ninety hours of combat time. He also shot down a Japanese plane.

    However, his most important contribution to winning the war is his discovery of how to make warplane engines consume less gasoline, which increased range and combat radius. This was so important he was called in by General McArthur, who called it “like a gift from heaven.” He assigned Lindbergh to go back and teach other pilots how to do it. Both McArthur and Lindbergh together reviewed maps of the South Pacific to see where the extending flying radius would be beneficial.

    Lindbergh came back a war hero. He visited a concentration camp in Germany after the war and denounced the Nazis. He was often a guest at the White House in his later years, and well respected.

  11. CG says:

    That’s the aspect of Lindbergh that should be emulated then, not his “America First” era and all that it represented, and what we can take from his through the perspective of history, which absolutely included being an apologist for Hitler.

  12. ReadyFirst says:

    SDC, nice read, thanks.

  13. lisab says:

    menendez is in deep doo doo

    his campaign is in a free fall

    hugin’s new ad is brutal!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=x412sfTmQuc

    schumer has just dumped 3 million into menendez’s campaign because of this ad

  14. Wes says:

    I just watched that ad, Lisa. It was brutal and effective.

    Unfortunately the Sewer State is full of people like Bitterlaw, who are perfectly happy to have left-wing Democrats represent them in Washington so long as the state has seasons—regardless of the sleazy conduct of their representatives.

  15. Mr.Vito says:

    “percentage of the total votes provided (mailed out).”

    You mean mailed out to everyone… not by party… okay.

  16. lisab says:

    heidi heitkamp doxed a lot of sexual assault victims in a newspaper

    and then had to spend the call calling them up apologizing

  17. Wes says:

    Heitkamp is doomed, Lisa. She was already down before this. This massive misstep was just the final nail in her political coffin.

  18. lisab says:

    Lindbergh flew his combat missions as a civilian

    he was not allowed to join the army or marine air groups until 1954

  19. ReadyFirst says:

    15. Yep. I thought that was a better representation because Dems actually have about 86,000 more requests provided than Reps so far this year, which seems to be a first. I think the increase is mostly bogus, and the ballots won’t be returned.

  20. DW says:

    Siena poll of VA_05

    So far, its 3 votes for Riggleman (R), and 3 votes for Cockburn (D), tied, right? Wrong:

    Cockburn 53%
    Riggleman 47%

    With weighting like that, hard to see how he can ‘win’ the poll.

  21. CG says:

    He needs a Bigfoot wave.

  22. Tina says:

    Horseface is trending Billy’s on Twitter.

  23. lisab says:

    stormy got a million dollars in her gofundme

    she now has to give it to donald

  24. Redmen4ever says:

    Beto opposes redistribution of HIS wealth.

  25. DW says:

    BOOM!

    NY_11

    Whoops! Rose campaign had PPP-D to a poll for them, and it didn’t quite turn out as expected:

    Rose (D) 39%
    Donovan (R) 47%

    So if a D-internal shows you down 8…you don’t need to order the balloons for your election night party.

    And this is the best part! PPP-D did ask the horserace question first, but notice a later question:

    Army combat veteran Max Rose is not taking a dime from corporate PACs and federal lobbyists. His campaign is primarily funded by individuals. If elected, Max Rose will work for the people of New York not special interests in Washington. Congressman Dan Donovan, who has accepted a half million dollars in corporate PAC and Washington lobbyist money, consistently votes on behalf of corporate special interests. Having heard this, let me ask you again: If the candidates in the election for US House this fall were Democrat Max Rose and Republican Dan Donovan, who would you vote for?

    48% Max Rose
    37% Dan Donovan

    Normally PPP-D just puts that question first and hopes you don’t check the internals.

  26. DW says:

    So under the guise of doing a poll, The Rose campaign hired PPP-D to do its phone calling to persuade people to vote D.

  27. lisab says:

    new protected class

    faux native americans

  28. lisab says:

    Voters across Georgia rushed to the polls on the first day of in-person early voting Monday, with 69,049 people casting their ballots.
    That’s a sharp increase from the last midterm election in 2014, when 20,898 people showed up on the first day of in-person early voting, according to numbers from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

  29. lisab says:

    Alumni and faculty call on St. Lawrence University to rescind Susan Collins’ honorary degree (cbsnews.com)

  30. Tina says:

    Not a million,

    $100000+ is owed to Trumps lawyers. That is a very conservative estimate of lawyer bills.

    Barnes law is he source.

  31. lisab says:

    Why isn’t the media covering climate change all day, every day? (washingtonpost.com)
    ——————–

    it snowed in mn on sunday

  32. Tina says:

    Robert Barnes
    @Barnes_Law
    24m
    Trump wants media to cover his courtroom win over #Avenatti & #StormyDaniels. Hence, Trump calls Daniels a name. Media (enraged about the name calling) now covers Trump’s courtroom win over #Avenatti & #StormyDaniels. Win. Repeat. Win. Repeat.
    View

  33. DW says:

    MI_02 – D-Internal

    Davidson (D) 42%
    Huizenga (R) 48%

    What’s with all the Dem internal releases showing them behind? Obviously they are trying to fund raise on it, but wow.

  34. EML says:

    20 – I noticed yesterday in the FL-27 poll when it was 2 votes for Shalala, 1 vote for Salazar, 1 Undecided, the percentages were 56% Shalala, 16% Salazar, 28% undecided.

  35. DW says:

    34 – yeah, its a window into how they have pre-weighted the results. Good thing on election day 1 vote = 1 vote, unless you are in Philly.

  36. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    18. “Lindbergh flew his combat missions as a civilian.”

    He was a “technical representative.” When a question arose over his combat actions, an unranked civilian stated “You have the right to observe combat as a technician, but not fire guns”, “a marine officer responded, “with a wink”, “it would be all right for him to engage in target practice on the way home.” His biography stated: “From then on, the military looked the other way whenever Lindbergh chose to assert himself as a soldier.”

    Gen. McArthur inquired of Lindbergh how many Japanese plans he shot down (one), and responded “I’m glad you got one.” McArthur also told Lindbergh he “could do any kind of flying in any plane he wanted.” Lindbergh flew a total of 50 combat missions.

  37. Wes says:

    Let’s see:

    2 out of 4=50%.

    1 out of 4=25%.

    1 out of 4=25%.

    Do pollsters no longer understand basic math?

  38. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    11. “That’s the aspect of Lindbergh that should be emulated then, not his “America First” era and all that it represented, and what we can take from his through the perspective of history, which absolutely included being an apologist for Hitler.”

    People grow, learn new knowledge, and have more mature viewpoints. It is why Reagan and Trump left the Democratic Party and became Republicans.

  39. lisab says:

    Elizabeth Warren’s Pow Wow Chow ‘Cherokee’ recipes were word for word COPIES of famous FRENCH chef’s techniques

  40. Wes says:

    Of course, SDC, Reagan has a linear progression from D to I to R. Trump pingponged back and forth in political affiliation before settling on the one best suited for his ambitions.

  41. lisab says:

    yesterday warren got shot down by the cherokee nation

    and right after she went on a 26 tweet rant

    they are now reading them on massachusetts radio

    as a masterpiece theater drama

  42. BayernFan says:

    It was the favorite recipe from that restaurant in Manhattan of the Duke and Duchess of Windsor.

  43. DW says:

    14 votes now in VA_05, including 1 vote for undecided, and yet undecided is shown as only 2% instead of 7%.

  44. lisab says:

    warren is done

    her twitter rant was epic!

  45. lisab says:

    Lindsey Graham Jokes About Taking DNA Test: “I’ll Probably Be Iranian. That’d Be, Like, Terrible” (newsweek.com)

  46. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    40. Agree with you Wes, will add Trump’s ambitions were based on his belief system regarding a hard line on trade and foreign policy. He picked the party that would allow him best to move forward the policies. He has been advocating for the same policies for several decades.

  47. Mr.Vito says:

    “…yeah, its a window into how they have pre-weighted the results.”

    Even more confusing, they always have this disclaimer for the early portion of the polls

    “We haven’t gotten enough responses to even start weighting, though we do adjust for whether people say they’ll vote from the start. Our numbers are especially unreliable right now.”

  48. DW says:

    ha–Silver has been so keen on the generic ballot polls when they are D+13, but somehow he hasn’t got around to acknowledging the existence of the CNBC poll that was just D+6.

  49. lisab says:

    boom

    Elizabeth Warren

    @elizabethforma
    22h22 hours ago

    I’m ready to reverse the trillion-dollar tax scam and use that money to help cut student loan debt and rebuild infrastructure, ready to stand WITH our allies AGAINST our enemies, and get to work on clean energy, immigration reform, and gun safety.

  50. lisab says:

    Elizabeth Warren

    US Senate candidate, MA
    At the end of the day, I trust the people of Massachusetts to look at the facts about who I am (a white woman) and how I’ve lived my life (as a white woman pretending to be a cherokee) and make their own judgment about me. But remember: @realDonaldTrump doesn’t have the same kind of faith in you.

  51. lisab says:

    sooooooooo …

    warren is going to take our money, give it to antifa student loan cheats and get rid of the second amendment

    yup, she will be president

  52. DW says:

    50–as punishment for the same sort of thing (mis-representation for the purpose of career advancement), NBC’s Brian Williams was stripped of his anchor position and forced to suffer the humiliation of sharing a desk at MSNBC with Maddow.

  53. Wes says:

    MA had a perfectly good Senator in Scott Brown till they replaced him with Warren.

  54. Mr.Vito says:

    Neat.

    One vote came in for each of the candidates in VA-5 and the Dem increased her lead by 3%.

  55. lisab says:

    warren made 26 tweets in an hour

    they were all just dramatized on wrko, massachusetts’ biggest talk radio station

    and will be played over and over during the primaries if she runs

    did none of her aides take her aside and say, “hey lizbeth, 1/1024 is not that much”

  56. Mr.Vito says:

    “hey lizbeth, 1/1024 is not that much”

    She is 1023/1024 idiot.

  57. lisab says:

    MA had a perfectly good Senator in Scott Brown
    ——————-

    he really blew it, twice

    he would not answer straight questions about gun laws, health care, immigration etc.

    he was given softball questions, but decided to not say anything, thus pleasing no one

  58. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    lisab, Warren’s tweets are unique. She seems to be arguing:

    1.) That her DNA does prove she is Cherokee, so Trump should pay up.

    2.) Here “heritage” never played a role in her being hired for a job. She was always hired as a white woman. (the claims otherwise must have mysteriously shown up on all those documents)

    2.) “DNA & family history has nothing to do with tribal affiliation or citizenship, which is determined only – only – by Tribal Nations” Warren forgot to mention she independently made claims about her own Cherokee background.

    Saying this, even if Warren drives off the Chappaquiddick Bridge with Geronimo as a passenger, assume she will still be re-elected.

  59. DW says:

    Lets say you land at Newark Airport and you want to take in a Yankees game. Its just 24 miles away for your taxi driver.

    Not far at all, just a lot of traffic to get through. But if those 24 miles of driving represent the supposed amount of Native American in Warren, then with the part of her not Native American translated into miles, one could drive almost completely around the earth at the equator.

    So, yeah, its not much.

  60. Mr.Vito says:

    ” one could drive almost completely around the earth at the equator. ”

    What do they do when they get to the ocean?

  61. DW says:

    60…they ride in one of those tourist ‘duck’ vehicles that can go on land or water. If Ted Kennedy is the driver, you get out before you get near the ocean.

  62. Wes says:

    How’s this for a downer?

    I just went to the local tobacco shop to grab a couple of cigars. The manager and I exchanged the normal banalities.

    I asked her, How are you?”

    She responded, “I’m not doing too well.”

    Then in a whisper she said, “I’m having a miscarriage.”

    I immediately lost all my cheer.

  63. Redmen4ever says:

    Stormy Daniels has been moving at the rate of 1 unit every decade from (5, 10) to (0, 10) on the Hot-Crazy Matrix since turning 18.

  64. Redmen4ever says:

    I checked and CNN was being very fair to Ted and Beto. Other polls say Texas is 35 to 25 Republicans versus Democrats, which isn’t fair. CNN has re-distributed the wealth so it’s 25 Rs to 25 Ds.

  65. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV UPDATE

    1. Newly registered voters:

    biggest gains are those registering R
    and those registering “no affiliation”
    __________________

    2. WV CD3–MONMOUTH POLL

    “…poll from the Monmouth University Polling Institute released Tuesday shows Miller over Ojeda 48 percent to 45 percent.”
    [Cow thinks it is more like 5-8 pts.]

    “Ojeda had a six to nine-point lead in a Monmouth poll released in June, Monmouth Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray said Tuesday on MetroNews “Talkline.”
    [So since June, the D has gone from up “6 to 9 points to down 3]

    “But Murray added, in a district where President Donald Trump is very popular, Miller should be leading by more.

    3. In CD#3 voter enthusiasm is low

    4. IN US SENATE RACE
    “Manchin up by 20 points, 56 percent to 36 percent, among Third District voters.

    “It suggests that if he (Manchin) has a 20-point lead in the 3rd District he’s winning the state fairly handily,” Murray said.

    [REPEAT: IF Manchin leads by 20 points in CD3, he will win statewide. COW SAID THE U.S. SENATE RACE WOULD HINGE ON HOW VOTERS IN CD3 VOTE. I still say Morrisey campaign going negative on Jenkins–who represented WV CD3–in the primary was bad strategy…win the(primary) battle but lose the General (war)]

    The Monmouth Poll spoke by phone with 350 likely voters in the 3rd District Oct. 10-14. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.2 percent.”

  66. Sy says:

    So breakdown so far for the people who have already voted in Florida (by mail) R/D/I:

    2018 – 45.3/36.7/18.0
    2016 – 40.6/38.4/21.0
    2014 – 44.4/37.6/18.0

    From the numbers, Republicans are voting at a higher rate than usual.

  67. mnw says:

    Scott Berg wrote a superb, scholarly bio of Lindbergh. Best bio I ever read. “Scholarly” means “university historian” quality– full index; footnotes to EVERY source, etc.

    Berg published his bio before the news of L’s second & third “families” in Germany became known. L had children by both of 2 sisters there. He secretly supported them– to some extent.

    His odd family arrangements have no bearing on anything Berg wrote.

    The book is about LINDBERGH’s LIFE– NOT the kidnapping. But the chapter on the kidnapping is superb. It is one small section of the bio.

  68. DW says:

    Three weeks short of two years ago, 69% of the people in WV voted for Trump. In three weeks from now, about 55% of the people in WV will vote to stop Trump even though they say they are still for Trump.

  69. ReadyFirst says:

    70 DW. Bbbbbuuuutt…Manchin voted for Kavanaugh and the TV says he’s a CONSERVATIVE Democrat.

  70. Bitterlaw says:

    Unfortunately the Sewer State is full of people like Bitterlaw, who are perfectly happy to have left-wing Democrats represent them in Washington so long as the state has seasons—regardless of the sleazy conduct of their representatives.

    Wes is a liar and a moron. Both can be true. I never voted for a Democrat when I lived in New Jersey. I essentially moved out when I was graduated from high school in 1986 but returned in the summer until I finished law school in 1993. Since I never voted for a Democrat and I have not lived in New Jersey for more than 25 years, how am I content to have Menendez represent me?

  71. Tina says:

    James o Keene is lighting up Claire.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII?p=s

  72. Bitterlaw says:

    One of my friends told me about the most awkward conversations he ever heard. A male lawyer greeted another lawyer in court and said, “I heard you were pregnant. When are you due?” She replied, “My daughter was stillborn 10 days ago” and ran out crying.

    That lawyer needs to find another area to practice or retire.

  73. Mr.Vito says:

    “That lawyer needs to find another area to practice or retire.”

    Why?

  74. Bitterlaw says:

    Because he made a horrible, embarrassing mistake that was repeated in every law office in the county.

    Mr. Vito to say it was no big deal in 3,,,2,,,1,,,

  75. Bitterlaw says:

    I have a simple rule. Never discuss pregnancy with any woman unless she brings it up. Actually, change that. Never discuss it.

  76. Mr.Vito says:

    “Because he made a horrible, embarrassing mistake that was repeated in every law office in the county.”

    Sounds like the rest of you need to retire.

  77. Bitterlaw says:

    Sounds like you have no standards and forgive anything and everything, Mr. Vito.

  78. Bitterlaw says:

    I told you years ago that I never forgive or forget anything. Since I never forgive myself for anything I do I feel comfortable judging others.

  79. Mr.Vito says:

    Mr.Bitter called me forgiving to a fault.

    Thanks, man. I love you, too.

  80. Mr.Vito says:

    At any rate, in order to begin to make any judgment, I would have to know how they each acted after all that.

  81. Bitterlaw says:

    I don’t forgive or forget. I just file it away until I can use it later. Why should I be less judgmental of others than I am towards myself.

  82. Mr.Vito says:

    Because with yourself, you have 50%-100% of the set of data needed to draw conclusions, whereas, with others, you probably have 0%-25%.

  83. mnw says:

    FOX News “power rankings” has jumped on the Big Blue Wave with both feet.

  84. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw never forgives or forgets anything—unless GWB violates his standards. You’re a perfect Stepford Wife, Bitter.

  85. Mr.Vito says:

    More polling fun, brought to you by Siena.

    In the FL-27 poll, among those who ALREADY VOTED, there are 24% undecided.

    This polling fun was brought to you by Wardrobe, Assorted Socks, Suspenders, and Undergarments Polling.

    WASSUP — we reap what you sew.

  86. Hugh says:

    Fox is not willing to buck the pc wisdom. The big blue wave. I’m not seeing it.

  87. Bitterlaw says:

    Lying moron Wes is back. Maybe he should rip Tina for being content to be represented by corrupt Democrats in California – a state she lives and votes in.

    Good to see Wes has anti-GWB act ready to go. Of course, he voted for GWB twice but that never stops him.

  88. Mr.Vito says:

    The FOX house list looks pretty standard to me.

  89. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes should hang out with the Kossacks more often. They share so much in common.

  90. Bitterlaw says:

    I have never slept well. Never. So I tried My Pillow. It is advertised as the greatest pillow of all time. Well, I still do not sleep well AND I have a $45 pillow.

  91. Mr.Vito says:

    I think there is a money back guarantee, Mr.B.

  92. MichiganGuy says:

    CookPoliticalReport
    ?Verified account @CookPolitical
    3h3 hours ago

    House Ratings Change: #MN08 moves from Toss Up to Lean R
    .
    https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1052335727588110336
    —————————————————————————————————————
    That must of hurt Cook to make this change.

  93. Bitterlaw says:

    I would rather keep a pillow that did not help me than have the person at the store think I can’t afford to keep a pillow that does not help me. Better to waste $45.

  94. MichiganGuy says:

    CookPoliticalReport
    ?Verified account @CookPolitical

    Ratings Change: #ORGOV shifts from Lean D to Toss Up.
    .
    https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1052303833769172993
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Not to mention this change. Better check on Cook hope he doesn’t have a heart attack. Thanks Antifa for the help. Even a blue state like Oregon isn’t keen on Antifa directing traffic. LOL

  95. MichiganGuy says:

    Bitter hasn’t learned “Pride goeth before destruction”.

  96. Mr.Vito says:

    “I would rather keep a pillow that did not help me than have the person at the store think I can’t afford to keep a pillow that does not help me. Better to waste $45.”

    Can you send it to me? How much is shipping?

  97. NYCmike says:

    YOOOOO

  98. NYCmike says:

    Send it to me – I’ll use my UPS acct.

  99. NYCmike says:

    I’ll keep it at work….with my cot.

  100. Mr.Vito says:

    Darn! Mike has the connections.

  101. NYCmike says:

    Mr Vito,

    You are the threads that keep those connections warm!

  102. NYCmike says:

    Not sure if that could be considered harassment…..

  103. mnw says:

    Vito 90

    (paraphrase, because I can’t find the original FOX “Power Ranking” article):

    “Nothing has changed in the last month. The GOP is still looking squarely in the face of losing the House, perhaps in a landslide, just as we predicted one month ago.”

  104. Mr.Vito says:

    Well, I can’t say I disagree that they are looking that possibility squarely in the face.

  105. Mr.Vito says:

    Just a little movement in either direction could save the house or lose it.

  106. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    69. “Scott Berg wrote a superb, scholarly bio of Lindbergh.”

    Agree Berg’s book is outstanding. When the Spirit of St. Louis was being built, Lindbergh lived in San Diego a few blocks away from where I now reside. Berg’s book does not mention it, but there are pictures and letters written by Lindbergh from that location, including one at the time he departed. He was very well-liked as a person.

  107. dblaikie says:

    Well they are all tied up with the Arizona Sienna poll.

  108. ReadyFirst says:

    Cool, there’s a 12:15 am ULA launch tonight, should be beautiful. It’s an Atlas, so that should make the house shake good :). Feel free to watch it with me, except I’ll be watching it in my back yard.
    https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/2018/10/16/live-watch-ulas-most-powerful-atlas-v-rocket-launch-1-8-billion-air-force-satellite-cape-canaveral/1667109002/

  109. Mr.Vito says:

    Thanks… watched it at your link. Not feeling up to going outside to look.

  110. Victrc says:

    Read The NY Times “review” of the candidates below the poll. They ask if MC sally can overcome the voters “repelled” by the President. I wonder if they referred to Republican voters who didn’t agree with Obama as being “repelled” by him. I would doubt it.

    They they go on to call Sinema as a “centrist.” In what bizarro world is this woman a centrist.

    Last tidbit. All the org ratings have it as toss up except for the infamous silver who has it as leans D. He’s so disingenuous.

    Stuff like this truly makes my blood boil when I think of all the disinformation being pushed on the American public.

  111. Mr.Vito says:

    At the 250 mark, McSally has a tenuous 2-point lead.

  112. Mr.Vito says:

    She finally leads narrowly with whites and seniors, but also still leads with Hispanics.

    Guess we’ll see if that holds…

  113. MichiganGuy says:

    Ipsos Poll
    .
    Trump
    45% approve
    54% disapprove
    October 9-15
    —————
    42% approve
    57% disapprove
    October 2-8
    —————
    Generic Ballot
    Dem 50%
    Rep 40%
    October 9-15
    —————
    Dem 50%
    Rep 38%
    October 2-8
    ————–
    Overall not great numbers for us but, as you can see we have the momentum.

  114. ReadyFirst says:

    One of the clearest night launches I’ve seen Vito. It was a good one!

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    97. I hate myself. How is that being proud?

    113 Vic – I am repulsed byTrump. I will vote straight GOP (like every election). Both can be true.

  116. ReadyFirst says:

    Victrc, disinformation is exactly the right word for it. Reminds me of articles about the Soviet Union, same tactics.

  117. Victrc says:

    Bitter… totally understand and appreciate your sentiments, but it’s one thing for you to say thatnhere, and another for a major news organization to say it. I stand by my disinformation call.

    Btw, does anyone seriously think it would be any different if any other Republican had been nominated and won. The vitriol they have for Trump (which he forments to the fullest with each and every text) would be exactly the same but under a different guise for any other R. They would have either used the stupid meme like they did for Reagan, or kept the whole white Supremist (sic) mantra. Old, white, racist, sexist….all those would be heaped upon whomever was President.

    It’s a very interesting point in our history.

  118. ReadyFirst says:

    Bitter, from what I’ve read, you seem like a pretty good guy who cares tons about his family and others. We’re all terminal, and we all have reasons to be down on ourselves, but you should be proud of what and who you are. Guess it really bothers me to hear you say you hate yourself. I’m a couple years older than you and one of my best friends (ironically he grew up in Philly) has depression issues. He’s a tough guy. A few years ago he got treatment and went on some meds and it made a big difference for him. Not saying that’s what you need and sorry if I’m butting in too much. I don’t have the same crosses to bear that you do. Heck, I don’t even know you, but I do know from what I’ve read about you, you should be proud of who you are. You wouldn’t be this tough on your kids, so don’t be so tough on yourself. And for gods sake, take some of those vacation days!

  119. sandiegocitizen says:

    97. “I hate myself”

    That seems odd, given it sounds like everyone around you likes you. Assume the girls basketball team you coach and its supporters really appreciate you, as do others in the community. You have a dark cloud overhanging you, and not sure you see yourself as the same good guy that others around you love and respect.

  120. Bitterlaw says:

    Ready and SD – You are kind and thoughtful. I appreciate that. I dwell on what this disease stole from me. I could not serve in the military. It damaged my eyes and teeth. It ruined many moments in my life.

    I coach because. I like it and nobody else wants to do it. The girls come for the unhealthy snacks. Winning coaches don’t give out Twix after games. As for treatment for depression, that is not an option. I view depression as weakness and almost all mental illness as an admission of failure. The day I see a psychologist or psychiatrist will be the end of my life.

  121. ReadyFirst says:

    Bitter, I can appreciate and understand your feelings. My mother is schizophrenic and I’ve been around mental health issues most of my life. I can’t stand Psychs either, that’s what beer and good friends are for, but a subtle talk with your family MD about work stress doesn’t carry any stigma and could be a life changer. The brain is an organ, like any other and we are getting older. I totally get your mental toughness and appreciate it. My fiancée doesn’t appreciate my dark humor sometimes, but it’s that same attitude of never quit that’s gotten me through the tough moments. My dentist did wonders with veneers and gave me a smile I never thought I could have. The superficial stuff is easier to work through. The diabetes has got to be tough, I can’t deny that. But if everyone else here recognizes you’re an exceptional person, we can’t all be wrong. Those girls of yours really need and respect you, even when they’re rotten (19 y.o. Daughter issues here). Don’t be so hard on yourself or I’m going to have to start going Stuart Smalley on you. Respectfully submitted, RF

  122. Bitterlaw says:

    RF – Congratulations on the upcoming wedding. I hope your daughter resolves her issues. Otherwise, somebody like Wes may prey upon her. He likes the young emotionally damaged ones.

    I would never tell my doctors what bothers me. I practice lying to them about how I feel before appointments. No need to show weakness to them. Other than prescribing insulin, they can’t help me.

  123. Bitterlaw says:

    Breaking News – Senator Menendez to be replaced on ballot by…Corey Booker. Booker will resign and the NJ Governor will appoint .. Bob Menendez to fill Booker’s seat.

  124. MichiganGuy says:

    Bitter it wouldn’t surprise me in New Jersey.

  125. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Scott 49%
    Nelson 47%
    .
    Among early voters:
    .
    Scott 50%
    Nelson 47%
    .
    Governor:
    .
    Gillum 47%
    DeSantis 46%
    .
    St.Pete Poll
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson

  126. MichiganGuy says:

    Arizona Senate:
    .
    McSally 49%
    Sinema 45%
    .
    Siena Research/UpshotNYT Live Poll:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

  127. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!

    Among those who say they have already voted DeSantis is at 49 percent, while Gillum is at 45 percent.

  128. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    Did Monday night’s Arizona Senate debate help Martha McSally(R)? Anecdotally, McSally went from -7 in the NYT/ Siena poll on debate night to +4 last night or the day after.

    Phil
    I hear that Ted Cruz was really on his game in last night’s TX Senate debate against Mr. O’Rourke. What say you?

  129. MichiganGuy says:

    “Trump could be the most honest president in modern history. When you look at the real barometer of presidential truthfulness, which is promise keeping, he is probably the most honest president in American history. He’s done exactly what he said he would do.” Marc Thiessen, WPost

  130. Tom says:

    130. MichiganGuy – Just couldn’t believe an uber liberal socialist like Gillum could be doing as well in Florida as the polls were saying.

  131. MichiganGuy says:

    Tom, DeSantis isn’t the best candidate himself but, yeah, I agree Gillum is too far to the left to win a state like Florida.

  132. Tina says:

    John Cardillo retweeted
    Mark R. Levin Mark R. Levin
    @marklevinshow
    12h
    Ben Sasse fooled many conservatives. He’s a gadfly & a flake whose only notoriety is as a Trump-basher. I’ll never forget his call to me insisting I should support the Iran deal & arguing I was too tough on Bob Corker. He’s been utterly ineffective. hannity.com/media-room/ben…
    View summary ·

    Sassehole is becoming more and more Corker and Flakey like. No need to write 20 pages in your little book blasting Hannity, who gave Sassehole a lot of radio time in the past.

    Thiis back bencher will not run for re election or may be primaried.

  133. mnw says:

    Sheep

    I dunno. Maybe u were right, & viewers liked her ‘passion.’ I certainly hope so. I’m probably a poor judge, because I’m used to listening to LAWYERS debate (“argue”).

  134. Tina says:

    Enema will not win

    She is trailing by 4 to 6 points.

    I marvel at Mcsalleys campaign. Whomever is doing her campaign ads deserves a big raise.m Most effective R campaign in a long, long time.

  135. Tina says:

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    16s
    Watched the debate last night & Beto O’Rourke, who wants higher taxes and far more regulations, is not in the same league with Ted Cruz & what the great people of Texas stand for & want. Ted is strong on Crime, Border & 2nd A, loves our Military, Vets, Low Taxes. Beto is a Flake!
    View

    Beta Flake.

  136. Wes says:

    Reuter’s is out with an attempted Bredesen rescue poll claiming Blackburn is up only 3:

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1MR1EB?__twitter_impression=true

  137. Wes says:

    I would say Kevin Cramer is more effective than McSally, Tina, since he defined an incumbent so successfully she had to launch an ad that may get her campaign sued.

  138. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #139- Wes
    I agree. This polling partnership has been the only pollster to show O’Rourke(D) ahead in TX by 2 about a month ago.
    Also, Real Clear Politics does NOT post their polling results. I wonder why?

  139. Tina says:

    Wes, I like the tutu ad. This seat was in danger given Flakey flaking out.

    Cramer has done well too.

  140. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Tina and Wes:
    If he wins, the nod for the best campaign,IMHO, will go to Dean Heller in Nevada.

  141. MichiganGuy says:

    If he wins, the nod for best campaign, IMHO will go to Bob Hugin in New Jersey.

  142. Wes says:

    Hugin won’t win. Heller probably will.

  143. Wes says:

    I’d rather go out like Nelson Rockefeller, Bitter.

  144. DW says:

    Glad to see McSally recover in the Siena poll, but as I said yesterday I have seen enough of them this election to conclude that Siena is not to be trusted—whether the news is good or bad.

  145. mnw says:

    SDC 109

    St. Louisans also have some regrets about Lindbergh memorabilia.

    Lindbergh (& his father-in-law) decided to give all his medals & stuff to the City of STL. However, they gave his airplane to the Smithsonian.

    Talk about getting the short end of the stick. St. Louis has a REPLICA
    of the SofSL hanging from the ceiling at Lambert Field. Not quite the same! I think the original airplane is probably the single most famous item the Smithsonian has.

  146. Bitterlaw says:

    Intense argument over artifacts in Smithsonian to break out in 3…2…1…

  147. mnw says:

    DW

    I agree. Siena– not to be trusted, whether it’s good news or bad.

    So BL, do I just cheerfully accept good polls at face value, & “re-weight” the bad ones?

    I try to look at ALL of them with a cool, skeptical eye. Track record means a lot, too.

  148. mnw says:

    The ONLY thing I can think of right off that’s in the Smithsonian is the Spirit of St. Louis.

    They have some fine shrunken heads, & those “gowns of the first ladies,” too, I guess.

    Btw, you guys would probably cheer up some if u didn’t stay up all night.

  149. Tgca says:

    Ciento y cincuenta y cuatro!

  150. Todd McCain says:

    A Scott victory would be huge. ND, MO and FL; Add what I believe will be IN as well.

    Who knows about MT, but Trump is back there tomorrow for a MAGA rally.

  151. Todd McCain says:

    Having 55 would insulate us completely for 2020 and 2022.

  152. Todd McCain says:

    Also, I really believe Trump made a deal with Manchin. Vote for KAV and I wont do any more rallies in WV. Doesn’t appear Trump is headed back there.

  153. mnw says:

    Pastor Brunson on FOX now. Tacit reminder for evangelical voters. Zero couldn’t persuade Turkey to release him. Someone else was more persuasive, apparently.

  154. bob says:

    From Rasmussen today on Generic Congressional Ballot:

    Dems: 45%

    GOP: 44%

    Other: 4%

    Undec: 7%

  155. CG says:

    U.S. Senate Updated Predictions:

    Current U.S. Senate: 49 D, 51 R

    Arizona- Tossup (R)
    California- Safe D/Leans Feinstein- change from Safe D/Likely Feinstein
    Connecticut- Safe D
    Delaware- Safe D – change from Likely D
    Florida- Tossup (D)
    Hawai’i- Safe D
    Indiana- Tossup (R)
    Maine- Safe D/Safe King
    Maryland- Safe D
    Massachusetts- Safe D
    Michigan- Likely D
    Minnesota (A)- Safe D
    Minnesota (B)- Likely D- change from Leans D
    Mississippi (A)- Safe R
    Mississippi (B)- Likely R
    Missouri- Tossup (R)
    Montana- Tossup (D)
    Nevada- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)
    New Jersey- Leans D
    New Mexico- Safe D- change from Likely D
    New York- Safe D
    North Dakota- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
    Ohio- Likely D
    Pennsylvania- Likely D
    Rhode Island- Safe D
    Tennessee- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
    Texas- Leans R
    Utah- Safe R
    Vermont- Safe D
    Virginia- Safe D
    Washington- Safe D
    West Virginia- Leans D
    Wisconsin- Likely D
    Wyoming- Safe R

    Predictions:

    46 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
    54 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

    Republican net gain of 3

    http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/2018-us-senate-predictions-updated.html

  156. DW says:

    bob, you forgot the BOOM! that should go with that.

  157. MichiganGuy says:

    Boom!
    .
    RNC posts $56 million quarter as donations boom ahead of midterms.
    .
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/17/republicans-56-million-donations-909884

  158. Phil says:

    Sheeple, Cruz had a very good night – continues to paint Beto as the hard leftist that he is. He’s run a very good campaign and you never need to worry about Cruz in a debate. Cruz has plenty of money to fully cover the airways. Frankly, I don’t see what Beto is going to do with all that money – more yard signs in Austin? His lefty voters to put three Beto signs in their yard instead of one?

  159. DW says:

    From what I am reading, it sounds like the left and their accomplices in the media are now pointing to the fund-raising and spending as the indication that the blue-wave is coming.

    I guess they are seeing how huge fundraising and spending pushed Madam President Hillary over the line in 2016.

  160. DW says:

    Also, we laugh at the tell-tale “The only poll that matters is the one on election day” as the sure sign a candidate has resigned to defeat.

    Silver yesterday was out there saying, “maybe this will be the year the youth vote finally shows up.”

    The two slogans are siblings.

  161. DW says:

    Just like in 2016 the media said Trump was doomed because the Latino vote was going to show up.

    The Latino vote did show up. But they didn’t all vote in unison, and Trump won anyway.

  162. Phil says:

    “Maybe this will be the year the youth vote shows up”

    Come on, Nate. The youth vote has never shown up in a midterm election. This is what Silver is now reduced to in order to justify his rosy Democratic predictions? Maybe the youth vote will show up? LOL

    Paleeez.

  163. mnw says:

    I have seen a lot of “green wave” reporting lately, i.e., that DEMs are vastly outraising the GOP in donations.

    I think most of this is msm attempts to keep the ‘blue wave meme’ viable. However, I think some of it is a GOP scare tactic, designed to get their own donors to give more.

  164. Todd McCain says:

    We need some more MT and IN Sen polls. Hopefully FOX does a polling dump soon.

  165. Todd McCain says:

    Sheldon Adelson just gave like 25 M

  166. DW says:

    Rasmussen’s GCB of D+1 hits Silver’s 538 page, and so he moved the ‘Lite’ version of his house forecast from 77.4% chance of Dem takeover to 77.1%. How nice of him. The ‘Classic’ version was not moved.

    It’s all about fundraising. Fundraising is the new polling. Especially when polling turns against you.

  167. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-17-2018:

    Republicans 247,530
    Democrats 207,171
    Other 3,020
    No Party Affiliation 96,629
    .
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  168. DW says:

    yep, media echo-chamber now. Headline at RCP:

    “GOP Gains Momentum, But Spending Trails Dems”

    Wow, congressional elections are now decided by donations from outside the district and no longer by votes. Who knew?

  169. bob says:

    The most significant midterm tidbit:

    % of votes of age demographics from 2012, 2014, 2016:

    ———–2012——–2014——-2016

    18-29——-19———-13———19

    30-44——-27———-22———25

    45-64——-38———-43———40

    65+———16———-22———16

    Conclusions:

    1) If the same conditions prevail in 2018 young voters will drop again to 13% of the voting population while the 65+ demo will increase to 22% of the voters giving the GOP a built-in advantage.

    2) In addition in 2012 the white vote was 72% of the voting population while it increased in 2014 to 75% of the vote. In 2016 it was 71%. It’s not a wild idea that the white share of the vote will increase 3 or 4 points in 2018 thus decreasing the share of the non-white vote, which gives the GOP another built-in edge on November 6.

    (Non-white voters tend not to vote in similar percentages in midterm elections.)

  170. MichiganGuy says:

    Georgia Governor:
    .
    Kemp (R) 47%
    Abrams (D) 46%
    .
    Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Poll
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepoll/republican-has-narrow-lead-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-race-poll-idUSKCN1MR1EB

  171. mnw says:

    RAS

    49/50 (35/40) today.

    Geraghty has some interesting “GOP insider gossip” at NRO, & here is the speed-read:

    1) TN is over.

    2) McCaskill in ‘terrible trouble,” in MO.

    3) Taylor (R) is in good shape in VA.

    4) Comstock (R) in deep peril in VA.

    5) Brat (R) also in real danger in VA-07. Brat’s fate will be determined by former Eric Cantor supporters.

  172. dblaikie says:

    As always the GCB from Rasmussen will be the most ignored poll in the country. Goes against the narrative.

    And just to make sure, NBC or someone like will come out GCB showing a dem. lead of +10 or more.

    Here is the formula for the media. Ignore all generic polls 5 points and under. Report constantly all generic polls that are +10 or above dem.

  173. MichiganGuy says:

    Colorado Governor:
    .
    Polis (D) 47%
    Stapleton (R) 40%
    Helker (L) 4%
    .
    Magellan Strategies
    http://magellanstrategies.com/magellan-strategies-colorado-survey-2018-voters/

  174. mnw says:

    MG 175

    I examined that poll in as much depth as the poll permits. It’s all online. It IS LVs, but it looks like it was a random sample, with an LV screen.

    I could be wrong about “random sample,” but I think that’s the logical conclusion.

  175. mnw says:

    dbl 177

    I believe the last RAS GCB before today was a TIE, so today’s GCB shows a 1-point decline for the GOP, fwiw.

  176. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, They polled 1088 likely voters. Here is a link to the data.
    .
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xItuxwXLr5Fhgk10qLneW3W_3Hw5fWAa/view

  177. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    The just released weekly Economist/YouGov tracking poll shows the Congressional Generic Ballot at D+5 with a PID of D+5.

  178. DW says:

    1) TN is over.

    This is already known.

    2) McCaskill in ‘terrible trouble,” in MO.

    We suspected this given her horrible numbers. The only question has been whether or not Hawley is up to the task.

    3) Taylor (R) is in good shape in VA.

    Also known for any paying attention.

    4) Comstock (R) in deep peril in VA.

    This has been known for months.

    5) Brat (R) also in real danger in VA-07. Brat’s fate will be determined by former Eric Cantor supporters.

    We knew this was a tossup. However, Siena found a lead for Brat, and the Dem internal said it was tied, as did Monmouth.

  179. Skippy says:

    MichiganGuy #172

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-17-2018:

    Republicans 247,530
    Democrats 207,171
    Other 3,020
    No Party Affiliation 96,629

    ——

    Current 2018 percentages of voted by mail returned by party vs votes overall returned by mail.

    Republicans 44.65%
    Democrats 37.37%

    2014 final results of voted by mail returned by party vs votes overall returned by mail.

    Republicans 44.38%
    Democrats 37.58%

    No blue wave in Florida as of today.

  180. Todd McCain says:

    WOW; Bill Nelson just accused Scott of hiding from voters…..He’s focusing on the recovery efforts. Nelson might be done with that comment.

  181. mnw says:

    MG 181

    I read that BEFORE I posted about that poll. What do you find there that I missed? I knew how many voters were polled.

    I said it was LVs, & that since they don’t ‘show their work,’ it was probably a random online sample.

    I’m less surprised about Gillum’s surprising strength than I am by Stacy Abrams’ continued viability.

  182. DW says:

    OR_05

    On Friday, the Callahan campaign released an internal done by Gravis, showing an absurd lead of 23 points–this in a safe D seat.

    Schrader (D) 33%
    Callahan (R) 56%

    The Democrat had two choices.

    1) Release his own internal to show his own big lead, if he can show that.

    2) Ignore the opponent’s poll, suggesting the poll was so absurd it didn’t warrant a reply.

    Looks like he has chosen option #2.

    Another possibility is that the Drat does have an internal poll showing him ahead, but is a little concerned that the margin is tighter than it should be, so doesn’t want to release it, and option #2 is a bluff.

  183. Todd McCain says:

    I am not surprised with Gillum’s strength. DeSantis made a pretty significant gaffe the day after he won the primary.

  184. mnw says:

    DW 183

    I forgot one additional point in Geraghty’s summary:

    He says GOP insiders like tha fact that Donnelly is going full-tilt “I’m a centrist Trump supporter myself” now. They regard that as a sign that Donnelly is worried about his NO vote on KAV.

    Braun is opening up his immense wallet & giving yugely to his own campaign, btw.

  185. DW says:

    188 – it wasn’t a gaffe. “Monkey” was a VERB in his sentence and not a noun. It was only a gaffe for those looking for a way to take him down.

  186. DW says:

    wow–in a meeting with some who I know from past experience are hard-core leftists. Always vote liberal Democrat. I just listened. They brought up, mockingly, “guilty until proven innocent” in reference to Kavanaugh hearings. The conversation that followed indicated they were ticked off about how he got a raw deal.
    There were no women in the meeting. The voting booth is a private place.

  187. Todd McCain says:

    188. It was definitely a gaffe; just shouldn’t have said it period and he had to spend a week walking it back and explaining it.

  188. Todd McCain says:

    189. This is good; there had been concerns that Braun was spending to win the primary, but was relying too much on the RNSC for the general.

  189. DW says:

    The accusation was that he called the Dem a monkey. The accusation changed the verb to a noun. Its not complicated.

  190. Todd McCain says:

    Not going to argue this all day; anyone who paid any attention to the race knows he dropped in the polling immediately after that and got stalled into being down consistently 3-4 points. After he changed his campaign manager, he has been more on message and has started to climb back. The new polls from this morning are encouraging.

  191. DW says:

    I am not saying that DeSantis didn’t get hurt by the incident. But his comment is not at fault. He was the victim of a smear campaign by people who took a verb in his sentence and changed it to a noun and then assigned a motive and usage of their choosing that did not originate with DeSantis.

  192. Phil says:

    Nice to see McSally out to a 4 point lead in the Arizona Siena poll. I’m with DW on the the accuracy of the Siena polling. The response rate is horrible on these polls, but I guess I’d rather be up than down in any poll. It doesn’t mean much. Their Texas polling did seem to be entirely in line with all the other Texas polls so far so there is that. Still, their polls are all over the place. I’m anxious to see someone like Mason-Dixon poll Arizona, Florida, Mo, Indiana, and Montana.

  193. Waingro says:

    SilverHack has his new Senate forecast that has the Republicans with a 81.3% chance of keeping the Senate.

    However, he has the average gain at 0.6 and has AZ and FL as “leans D” and not even as tossups, even with recent polling showing the R’s up. Laughable.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=rrpromo

  194. DW says:

    Silverhack is in denial…as he works through the stages of grief.

    To say that the Dems have better chance of taking the senate than the GOP has holding the house speaks for itself.

  195. DW says:

    Its why Silver had pivoted to put all his chips on fundraising.

  196. Phil says:

    With the exception of the Nevada race Silver hasn’t moved any of the Senate races toward Republicans one bit. He still has Tester winning by more than seven and Donnelly winning by 6. Dems winning Arizona by 2. The only thing I can think of to even remotely justify those numbers are reliance on very stale polls and a huge reliance on things like the CNN generic ballot.

  197. Waingro says:

    Dave Wasserman
    ?Verified account @Redistrict
    4m4 minutes ago

    Today’s outlook: Democrats are poised to gain between 20 and 40 House seats, w/ a 25-35 seat gain the most likely outcome. Full ratings:

    https://t.co/mAdCOtLpRZ

  198. Waingro says:

    #201, 538 readjust all their polling averages based on a number of “factors”. It’s going to blow up in their face just as 2016 did.

  199. DW says:

    Conversation heard by fly on wall inside the 538 war-room:

    Silver: What? After all this there is no way this could be slipping away! We are NOT going to demoralize the base by saying the [bleeping] GOP might hold the house! Look, what else can you change in the database….what other factors can we tweak?

    Data Analyst: Lets see…we got some good generic ballot polling from CNN, lets juice that…and wait…look at this…look at the numbers I get out of the formula if I triple the share of fundraising!

    Silver: Fundraising it is then!

  200. Phil says:

    204

    You probably aren’t far off, DW.

  201. jason says:

    Not going to argue this all day; anyone who paid any attention to the race knows he dropped in the polling immediately after that and got stalled into being down consistently 3-4 points.”

    DW was right, it wasn’t a gaffe at all.

    The left wing media made into a gaffe, it’s what they do.

    Perceptions count, and they were successful in driving in driving his favorables down.

  202. jason says:

    Corey, pretty good senate analysis.

  203. Wes says:

    Of course had DeSantis taken a second to think about his words and used one the media couldn’t misconstrue as a racial slur, Gillum would probably never have vaulted into the lead.

  204. Todd McCain says:

    208. Exactly.

  205. Waingro says:

    I heard Neil Cavuto the other day use nonchalantly use the term “monkeying up”, obviously as a playful attempt to normalize it.

    That’s an uphill battle through. Howard Cosell never recovered from his “monkey” comment, as innocent as it was. Some terms are better left unsaid, as you know what the libs and their media cohorts will do.

  206. DW says:

    Speaking of the congressional generic ballot. The numbers are fairly stable across the varying pollsters who frequently poll and thereby track trends.

    Economist/YouGov:

    10/16: D+5
    10/09: D+6
    10/02: D+5
    09/25: D+8

    Rasmussen:

    10/11: D+1
    10/04: tied
    09/27: D+5

    Morning Consult:

    10/14: D+7
    10/07: D+10
    09/29: D+7

    Harris Interative:

    10/12: D+9
    10/07: D+6
    10/05: D+8
    09/30: D+8

    Reuters/Ipsos:

    10/09: D+12
    10/02: D+12
    09/25: D+7

    So at the start of October Economist/You Gov and Rasmussen seemed to pick up a shift to the GOP.
    Morning Consult and Harris about the same, while Reuters/Ipsos saw a shift D in the same period.

  207. DW says:

    Did Cosell use ‘monkey’ as a verb or noun? But honestly, who wants to live in a world where it is acceptable for you to be destroyed by enemies who take what you said, change it into something you didn’t say, and they hang you for it? And then the fault is yours and its written on your tombstone.

    This is the sort of thing that during the era of the founding fathers would have ended with a duel of pistols.

  208. jason says:

    Looks like Todd is watching too much MSM and swallowing their BS hook, line and sinker..

    As wes points out, the comment was misconstrued and used to drive DeSantis favorables down.

    It doesn’t make it a gaffe. It was portrayed as one, which is completely different.

    The chance that DeSantis meant to call anybody a monkey with that comment is zero, only believed by the MSM and its sycophants.

  209. Waingro says:

    #212, as a noun, describing a black Redskins receiver. “That little monkey gets loose doesn’t he?”

    It’s a term he had used on several occasions, including with white players.

  210. jason says:

    who wants to live in a world where it is acceptable for you to be destroyed by enemies who take what you said, change it into something you didn’t say, and they hang you for it? ”

    Exactly.

    That is why calling it a gaffe is just encouraging this sort of BS.

  211. DW says:

    And the left said it was a racist “dog-whistle” that only racists can hear, and they were the only ones that heard it.

  212. jason says:

    Cosell was a flaming liberal, btw.

  213. DW says:

    Here is what a gaffe sounds like, from the master:

    “Stand up Chuck! Let everyone see you…oh god what am I saying…everyone STAND UP FOR CHUCK!”

    or the guy who asked about Guam flipping over.

    Or Sheila Jackson Lee who wanted them to move the Mars rover to where our astronauts left the flag.

  214. Todd McCain says:

    He shouldn’t have said it. Period. It is simple as that. He spent a week tangling himself in knots explaining it. Anyone who doesn’t see that is just plain delusional. With his new campaign manager, he appears to have stabilized. The mail in ballots are encouraging.

  215. DW says:

    He didn’t tangle himself in knots, he was saying the same things I have been saying. If this is the new standard, than ANYTHING that ANYONE says can be twisted so the person is destroyed.

    Its called clear authorial intent. I know post-modernism likes the idea of shifting meaning of words from the author to the recipient, but that is simply fantasy. An author is the owner of his words, not the recipient.

    “He shouldn’t have said it. Period.”

    Todd McCain, you hate women. Your use of the term “period” was a signal to all women-haters out there how their monthly cycle leaves them an emotional wreck for a week, and that no man should have to live with once a month.

    “Period” is a well-established shorthand for women’s monthly cycle and your insensitive use of it shows your misogynist position.

    See how it works?

  216. Redmen4ever says:

    unimodal polls:

    Most polls, nowadays, are multi-model. Live caller, e.g., is landline AND cell. New Raz is IVR AND internet.

    Some internet panel-based polls, e.g., YouGov, go to great lengths to development a representative panel. Some don’t.

    The few remaining landline-only polls (mostly amateur) tilt Republican.

    The opt-in polls conducted by Berkeley and by GMU on behalf of the WP tilt Democrat. The whoops-us/roto-reuter/Larry Sabotage polls are anothrt example.

    Going multi-modal seems a much smarter method than re-weighing. Applying known weights to a random sample improves efficiency, but it doesn’t undo bias.

    Survey Monkey polls are curious, having a unique methodology and fetching large enough samples to make re-weighting work.

  217. Hugh says:

    Curious as to generic polls 3 weeks out in 16 and 14. I suppose the results follow percentage of dems and reps surveyed and where the independents live. Unfortunately I believe most of these pollsters build their models to fit their own biases. It natural. And if they are being paid they want to please their client such as cnn. Does anyone know if 538 has a subscription service?

  218. mnw says:

    Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): 7 million job openings; third quarter wage gains = +3.3%.

    World Economic Forum: “U.S. Regains Its Position As Most Competitive Economy in the World” (last time this happened was 2007)

    Economic news won’t move the needle now, though. Baked into the midterms already.

  219. ReadyFirst says:

    188. TM et al. Desantis’ problems have been organizational, and winning over Putnam supporters. I was at the local county Republican meeting last week (last before the election) and they had to apologize because they still didn’t have yard signs from Desantis. I saw on FB a couple days ago they were now available at party HQ, but something so basic demonstrates a campaign organizational issue. Desantis finally had a photo op/endorsement from our local sheriffs (ours was Putnam a supporter) but this is the first I’ve seen of Desantis in our county. My county is a critical part of Central Fl and usually delivers big Rep vote totals. I believe Desantis has righted the ship with his new campaign manager and expect good things from him here on out. Gillum has also been portrayed in the media as the fresh faced man of color, and his negatives are really just now becoming known to low info voters. The premise that Desantis’ problems are all because of a stale comment blown out of proportion, and that most people have already forgotten, is wrong in my opinion.

  220. DW says:

    “Survey Monkey polls are curious”

    Monkey? RACIST!! Clearly insensitive use of polls to suppress the opinion of people of color.

  221. mnw says:

    RF 224

    That was an informative post.

  222. Todd McCain says:

    Q poll:

    Menendez 51
    Hugin 44

    Had this been 2010 or 2014, M would have went down.

  223. michael corleone says:

    That Q poll is not good for Menendez at all, given that is the most Pro D pollster out there.

  224. ReadyFirst says:

    226. Thanks mnw.

  225. Waingro says:

    #227, Hugin has a least a chance to make Menendez sweat and cause more panic and $$$ to be thrown at him.

    I can’t believe nobody primaried Menendez. He would have been easy pickings.

  226. ReadyFirst says:

    By comparison, 4 and 8 years ago, Rick Scott was everywhere in my county. This year, it feels like Scott’s here every week. I got a photo op with Scott a few weeks ago at a event. He’s not exactly a charmer, but seems a hard worker. His wife Ann is super nice.

  227. Mr.Vito says:

    Yougov has remained consistent this week in showing voter likelihood as decidedly tilted toward older voters, white voters, men, and 50K+ voters.

    I guess we’ll see…

  228. NYCmike says:

    Unfortunately, I am unwilling to say that Wes is wrong in saying that Hugin can’t win. I have not seen anger like I did when Christie Kreme beat Corzine. I have seen apathy, which usually means the Republican will get within 5 points of the Democrat.

    BUT, I have been wrong before……

  229. phoenixrisen says:

    Not buying the 20+ seat type of gain in the political pundits are suggesting for Democrats. The latest Wasserman projection is silly. Typically you see those types of gains when the President and the political party he represents is not perceived by the people of doing a good job or things are down for the country. For example GOP gain of 31 House seats in 1980, Dems gaining 26 seats in 1982, then of course 2006 and 2010. At the time the presidents were quite unpopular and/or the people were not happy about how things were going.

    At best for the Democrats I am seeing a 10-15 seat gain in the House right now max and that could evaporate with a large number of toss-ups and GOP momentum from the Kavanaugh event.

  230. lisab says:

    Menendez just got 3 million from schumer

    so you know the dems are worried enough to send real money

    AND

    that menendez cannot raise any money himself

    (but he should still win)

  231. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-17-2018:
    Rep-251,462 Dem-211,098 Other-3,082 NPA-98,410 Total-564,052 as of 10/17/2018 1:04PM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-8.0% Dem-6.7%

    *of note, Reps closed the gap of total ballots requested today by roughly 13,000 for a net difference of 73,486.

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  232. lisab says:

    btw … in light of the publicity

    ancestry.com is offering 30% off its dna kits

    $69.99 instead of $99.99

  233. Mr.Vito says:

    I can see anything from 10-30 seat loss for Republicans right now.

    The problem is that no one seems to be able to get a handle on the electorate. We have anything from tied to double digits (and the double digit guys giving caveats about swing districts). It’s crazy.

    Meanwhile, gallup has republicans off the charts in wanting single party control this year, congressional approval is a point above average, and the party ID has been relatively decent for Rs.

    So something has got to give.

    Yougov numbers in the midwest keep flipping from close to blowout for Dems. (Oddly, when it is close like this week, it seems to show a northeast blowout, which the GOP couldn’t care less about).

  234. Mr.Vito says:

    Analyzing a wide variety of data, I believe the GOP needs the likely voter turnout to be about D+5 or less to hold the house.

  235. DW says:

    239 – Not to quibble, but I would argue in a D+7 scenario, the GOP could also survive, if the right seats just happen to tilt their direction and survive the recounts. The hatred of all things good and right on the part of the radical left is so intensely felt in the deepest of blue regions of the country that they will run up the score. But winning 95-4 when they normally win those seats 85-14 doesn’t get them more seats, but it does mean the GOP can survive a national D+7.

  236. Mr.Vito says:

    By the way, to further illustrate how conflicting the data is, look at some of the Siena polls, where for example:

    Poliquin is -3 currently but
    “want GOP to hold house” is +3 GOP

    McSally is +4 currently but
    “want GOP to hold Senate” is +11 GOP

  237. Mr.Vito says:

    Sorry, but I disagree. I have already taken that into account with my D+5.

  238. Mr.Vito says:

    There is always a MOE though.

  239. Mr.Vito says:

    In other words, D+7 would have zero MOE, I think.

    Every break would have to favor the GOP, and I just don’t consider that to be likely enough to project it.

  240. DW says:

    That’s fine. We will find out in three weeks. Of course candidate quality matters a lot too. In TX_23 the blueprint was that this was a place Dems should flip. But Hurd has run a great campaign and is walking away with it. But on the other side, GOP nominated a dud in AZ_02 and its an easy flip. Those two seats have absolutely nothing to do with polling or the national mood.

  241. Waingro says:

    #240: I guess there is a difference in PID and what the House popular vote margin needs to be. A D+7 house popular vote margin is probably the firewall for where the House falls.

  242. DW says:

    And of course they are voting today in North Carolina.

    I hate early voting.

  243. Mr.Vito says:

    “Those two seats have absolutely nothing to do with polling or the national mood.”

    Right, but this is exactly why I consider it impossible for every break to go the GOP’s way.

  244. Mr.Vito says:

    In my opinion, if the party ID is close, it is a ballgame. Then turnout will need to especially favor Dems for them to take the house.

  245. DW says:

    Ok, but my race by race analysis has already accounted for the studs vs. duds. But I agreed that D+7 is the absolute max the GOP could sustain and still hold on by a seat or two. Places like CA_25 would have to go 49.7 GOP to 49.2 Dem, and similar margins in CA_48 and NC_09 and other tossups. I realize that you can only expect to get roughly half of the 50/50 seats, but if the GOP can grab a slight advantage on these, it could be enough to sustain a national D+7.

    But then again if the urban areas fizzle out for the Dems in extreme intensity, but elsewhere their turnout is strong, then D+5 could be enough to barely flip house control.

  246. Mr.Vito says:

    Even people like Wasserman have come out and said he thinks Silver has it a little too rosy for Dems.

    The most recent Gallup LV GB (which got no attention) was 51-42, but was in the week between the Ford announcement and the Avenetti announcement.

  247. Redmen4ever says:

    FROM THE SAME SET of nationwide polls, I have divergence in Trump JA and Republican partisan id relative to Generic Congressional Ballot.

    PLUS the fundamentals argue for the Republicans to do well.

    Model uncertainty swamps MOE. Hiyoo Silver’s simulations are useless.

    BUT … remember Virginia 2017. They’re surged bigger than we surged. In the process, almost taking the House of Delegates. But, praise Jesus!, they didn’t flip a Hillary coin to break a tie in one of the districts.

    We will make a net gain in the Senate but there’s a wide range of possible outcomes in the House.

  248. dblaikie says:

    Well, my friends I have had soul searching consideration of my forecast for the House. Let me go through my simple reasoning.

    1. I truly believe that the Congressional Ballot is very close. Thinking how historically the Dems. support is over rated and how bogus I feel these polls are, I would say the that the real generic number is plus 3 GOP to plus 3 Democrat.

    2. However, I really need to factor in the many GOP retirements. And the new districts in PA are not good.

    3. Voter enthusiasm is up for the GOP. Which should be revealed in future generic polls (don’t hold your breath).

    4. Sometimes I like to be crazy which means in more lucid moments I need to face reality.

    So my prediction has flipped from + 4 GOP to + 4 Dem. However my forecast for the Senate has not changed. At least +3 but more likely +5 for the GOP.

    In other words a ripple in the House, a red wave in the Senate.

  249. janz says:

    Don’t Get Your Hopes Up About Voter Turnout is a realistic “historical” assessment how election day usually shakes out.

  250. Barrett says:

    I really wish FiveThirtyEight did a more thorough job with their forecasts. There is no way the Democrats have an 84% chance of picking up the house. 60-65% at the very best.

  251. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    150. “St. Louisans also have some regrets about Lindbergh memorabilia. Lindbergh (& his father-in-law) decided to give all his medals & stuff to the City of STL”

    mnw, in San Diego we have a replica of the plane as well; we do get his medal of honor presented to him by President Coolidge in 1928. There in the San Diego Air & Space Museum. San Diego Airport is named Lindbergh Field as well.

  252. DW says:

    Dem Super PAC triages NE-02
    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratically-aligned-house-majority-pac-pulls-spending-from-nebraskas-2nd-district

    Don’t tell Silver, he still has it just Lean R, 51/49 for the Republican.

  253. Mr.Vito says:

    So the GOP is bringing home the Bacon?

  254. Mr.Vito says:

    I suggest you read the article in 259 and see how dismissive the leftist writer is.

  255. mnw says:

    SDC 256

    L’s medals are in The Missouri Historical Society Bldg in the City of STL. NOBODY goes there.

    The only other thing that the Smithsonian has that is in the same “famous” league as L’s plane is the Wright Brothers plane. It took me all morning to think of that.

    Lindbergh was good friends with both Orville Wright & Neil Armstrong. You likely know that already, but it’s one more remarkable thing about Lindbergh.

  256. DW says:

    Gravis has Donnelly up 44/40 with the Libertarian getting 7.

    Not likely the Libertarian is going to get 7 in a state like Indiana.

  257. John says:

    256.
    Yep. I have visited the replica of the Spirit of St. Louis I believe is housed in the museum in Balboa Park…(went to college at Point Loma University)…was built by Ryan Airlines of San Diego…I believe it later became Convair whom where my father worked.

  258. ReadyFirst says:

    260. What a POS the author is! “the shadowy anxiety that America will soon fall like Rome”, “For now it’s mostly the kooks. When the sane people join in, we’re guessing they’ll punch a whole lot harder.”
    Sounds like he’d fit right in having a beer with Maxine Watters. This is the kind of Soviet disinformation tactic that Victrc was commenting on yesterday. Anyone assaulting should be arrested and charged, this is despicable. Election day should be interesting. I wonder how many altercation reports we’re going to be reading about when Rep. and Dem. precinct workers are working the precinct tables in close proximity.

  259. DW says:

    264 – I mentioned a few weeks ago, that this election will have more violence than any other in US history. I mean when you have Tim Kaine calling for members of his party to fight in the streets, what does anyone expect to happen?

    There will be shouting matches, police called out, there will be overturned tables, there will be voter intimidation and the works.

  260. Wes says:

    DW, the Libertarian got 6% in 2012.

  261. BayernFan says:

    DW the libertarian typically gets about 5% in these Senate races in Indiana.

    Not a good poll for Donnelly.

  262. DW says:

    266–I read 5.5 rounded up to 6.

  263. DW says:

    But right, the big number in this poll is Donnelly stuck at 44%.

  264. Justin says:

    Trumps approval/disapproval is around 50/50 in that poll in IN. I would expect it to be closer to 55-45 split there.

  265. ReadyFirst says:

    DW, that does concern me in FL because of concealed carry and Castle Doctrine. I fully support both, but that toxic an environment can cause things to get out of hand quickly. Lot’s of concealed carry permits among Reps. I know I’ll be leaving mine at home that day.

  266. DW says:

    If I lived in FL I would vote early and not wait until election day.

  267. ReadyFirst says:

    DW, I do early vote (so convenient), but I’ll be helping at a precinct election day somewhere as usual.

  268. ReadyFirst says:

    I was helping a local School Board candidate primary day, so I had a neutral t-shirt on as our races are non partisan. A nutty, leftist, older gentleman came up to me, ranting heavily about Trump for 15 minutes. He obviously wasn’t well mentally so I was polite and defused him slowly. Had I been wearing a Rep. party shirt I’m sure he would have become completely unhinged and physical.

  269. jason says:

    He shouldn’t have said it. Period. It is simple as that. ”

    Ahh, Todd is moving the goalposts.

    From “gaffe” (BS) to “he shouldn’t have said it”.

    In hindsight, I don’t think anyone disagrees.

    But we shouldn’t accept the MSM’s view of what constitutes a gaffe, because there is a huge double standard. Republicans commit gaffes, are divisive, hateful, racist, etc. while Dems merely misspeak”

    Imagine if Trump said:

    “You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin’ Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent. I’m not joking.”

    or he described an AA candidate as:

    I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”

    or an airplane to Mexico:

    “I would tell members of my family, and I have, I wouldn’t go anywhere in confined places right now. It’s not that it’s going to Mexico, it’s that you are in a confined aircraft.”

  270. dblaikie says:

    Understanding a Poll 101: When an incumbent running for reelection has a number below 50 it is not good. Folks have already decided about the incumbent. The undecided will break heavily for the challenger. He or she will lose. Donnelly at 44 is toast. Take it to the bank.

  271. lisab says:

    The only other thing that the Smithsonian has that is in the same “famous” league as L’s plane is the Wright Brothers plane.
    —————————–

    the hope diamond, the first thing i thought of and world famous

    was probably part of the french crown jewels before 1789

  272. ReadyFirst says:

    Jason, “stand up Chuck”!
    You are exactly correct, we have no need to be apologists because the media twists what we say. It’s a reflection on them, not us.

  273. ReadyFirst says:

    277. It’s cursed, we should give it to China, Lol.
    https://www.livescience.com/16981-hope-diamond-cursed.html

  274. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    261. “L’s medals are in The Missouri Historical Society Bldg in the City of STL. NOBODY goes there.”

    mnw, if you are ever in San Diego, definitely go to the San Diego Air & Space Museum. It is and amazing place, particularly for children. They have flight simulators and also sorts off hands-on exhibits. The Apollo 9 command module and a moon rock are also present, as is a life size talking model of Charles Lindbergh at the door, who will tell you about the museum. Added plus, is in Balboa Park which is a fabulous place to visit. Very popular place, and a must do experience in San Diego.

  275. Phil says:

    My latest projection is D+28 in the House.

    Democrats pick up:

    Pennsylvania – 4
    New Jersey – 4
    California – 4
    Virginia – 2
    Minn – 2
    NY – 2
    Iowa – 2
    Fla – 1
    Tx – 1
    lllinois – 1
    Michigan – 1
    Kansas – 1
    Colorado – 1
    Arizona – 1
    Nevada – 1
    Kansas – 1
    NC – 1

    Republicans flip

    MInn – 2

    I think we hold on to the tossup seats in Kentucky and Washington.

    NET – D+27

  276. Mr.Vito says:

    Maine 2 now

    Trump approval +2
    GOP retains house +4
    Collins approval +27
    CollinsvoteForBK +15

    But Poliquin -3

  277. EML says:

    The NE-02 news is interesting. It’a district that Trump won by 2 and Bacon qwon by only one. It’s also a completely urban/suburban district, which is the profile of the districts Democrats think they should pick up. The Dem candidate has raked in $2 million by herself. Seems hard to believe that the more rural IA-03 is a better opportunity.

  278. Phil says:

    Make that net 28

  279. Wes says:

    Phil, the one GOP House seat in NV is safely Republican. If any seats flip, the GOP will gain there.

  280. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    277. The hope diamond may worth a fortune, but it is just a rock. Lindbergh & Wright Brothers planes are a tribute to man’s ingenuity in actually learning how to fly.

  281. Barrett says:

    #282

    It’s referred to as ME2

    Or if you prfefer…MeToo

  282. Phil says:

    Wes, good catch – you are exactly right about Nevada. I meant to say Nebraska (the Omaha district).

  283. Albert Hodges says:

    The Dems are NOT going to gain a congressional seat out of NC.

  284. Wes says:

    They most certainly have a shot, Al—NC-9. I still give them a slight edge in that one, but Harris is gaining traction at the right time.

  285. Phil says:

    Albert, I hope you are right. I would defer to Wes on that one – whichever way he goes I go.

  286. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Speaking of the San Diego Air & Space Museum, just got an invitation to a November reception fundraiser: “Come see the original Bullitt Mustang driven by Steve McQueen in the movie Bullitt –50 years ago, one of the most iconic car chase scenes in American cinematic history.”

    These guys are good at what they do when fundraising.

  287. DW says:

    My current outlook on the House, unchanged from yesterday:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04, OR_05

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  288. Wes says:

    I’m almost at a Tossup on that one, Phil. It’s a fluid race, so I’m analyzing everything about it before making my final prediction.

    Gun to my head, it would flip today by about 1000-2000 votes. Election Day is still a couple of weeks to go, and Harris is working hard for it. That may be enough to get him the one.

    It’ll be part of my final batch of predictions the Thursday before the election.

  289. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay, so more from the ongoing Maine 2 poll.

    7 straight response were for Poliquin, but the numbers haven’t moved. Why?

    Siena is weighting by Party Registration, and they were Republicans. They have 134 R and 119 D responses, and they are weighting it even. So Republicans calling doesn’t move the needle right now.

    I’m not saying that’s right or wrong, but just trying to give some insight into the sausage making.

  290. Phil says:

    Wes, sounds like you are exactly at NC-9 where I am on Tx-7 in my state.

  291. DW says:

    295 – I reminded everyone on Monday the disastrous results Siena had in two NY primary races this summer–and NY is their home state they know the best.

  292. DW says:

    So if I was a dem and worked for one of these campaigns and learned that Siena was going to start polling my candidate’s district in a couple days, I would send out an urgent e-mail blast to the thousand or so loyalists on my list telling them to answer the phone if its an unknown caller, and when its Siena, be sure to tell them you are voting D, but are registered as an R, and its a quick way to get a great poll for our candidate.

  293. jason says:

    Hey Barrett good to see you here.

    Are you still in the People’s Republic of Maryland?

  294. Diamond Jim says:

    CCC

  295. phoenixrisen says:

    Gee Phil, now you got me feeling depressed. I need some popcorn to satisfy my anxiety.

    Control of the House is truly a coin flip right now. I don’t think we’ll know until Election Night. It is going to be a very fascinating mid-term to watch. Re-districting and lots of House retirements give the Democrats their best shot at the House at least for the foreseeable future. If the GOP holds the House their freshman class will be tough to upend later. They have great Senate chances in 2020 and 2022.

  296. Brandon says:

    I was asking myself why Yoder was doing so poorly in Kansas. I just noticed it was a Clinton district. Surprised there was one in Kansas.

  297. Wes says:

    Bolsonaro is up 53-34 in Brazil.

    Good to know.

  298. Mr.Vito says:

    “I was asking myself why Yoder was doing so poorly in Kansas. I just noticed it was a Clinton district. Surprised there was one in Kansas.”

    Kansas City, KS has a high AA population, and has liberals bleeding over from Kansas City, MO.

  299. DW says:

    Poliquin now tied in Siena’s poll

  300. Mr.Vito says:

    “Poliquin now tied in Siena’s poll”

    He is still down by a fraction (see the graph) even though the voting today has been overwhelmingly in his favor.

    He has a decent lead among already/certain to vote. He leads by three without the Party Reg weighting.

  301. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Have seen the polls showing the Democrat ahead in the 49th California congressional district. But spend a lot of time in that district, and still think it could be in play. Am not convinced it is a Democratic lock.

  302. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    304. The leftist press, particularly in Europe (the Guardian for example) is going bonkers over Bolsonaro being ahead and likely to become the next president of Brazil. They much prefer corrupt socialists than someone they see as a Trump clone.

    Make Brazilian samba great again!

  303. mnw says:

    lisab

    I forgot about the Hope Diamond. Didn’t even know it was there.

  304. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new FOX News Poll has the Congressional Generic Ballot at D+7. The PID is D+6.

  305. Wes says:

    Brandon, KS-3 has long been KS’ most liberal CD. Dennis Moore held it for the Dems for 12 years. Orman carried it against Roberts. Both Hillary and Obama carried it in 2016 and 2008 respectively.

    Yoder won it in a great GOP year but became complacent after facing minor opposition in 2012 and 2014. He faced a stronger opponent in 2016 and held on by a significantly reduced margin.

    He has been taking the race more seriously recently, but it’s an open question as to whether he waited too long to get solidly motivated.

  306. Wes says:

    Bolsonaro must win. Thais Oliveira deserves a competent, non-socialist head of state for her country:

    https://www.pinterest.com/amp/pin/505529126902580056/

  307. John says:

    According to KFI LA (probably the most listened to station in LA) Newsom’s lead is down to 8 points.
    https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=a5fa95a604

  308. jason says:

    Bolsonaro might have lucked out. The only major candidate he was ahead of in second round polling projections was Haddad, had a more moderate candidate made it to the second round Bolsonaro might have been in trouble.

    Enough people still voted for the hard core leftist Haddad, who represents the party of former President Lula (in jail) and Dilma (impeached, defeated for the Senate) and the biggest corruption scandal in the history of Brazil to put him in the second round.

    Hopefully, Brazil will head in a different, pro-businessd direction.

  309. Sean says:

    I do not believe that Mike Coffman (CO-6) will go down. He always finishes a few points ahead of the polls…. I predict he wins re-election by 2 or 3 points….

  310. Hugh says:

    So this sounds a little like what happened to ford but this guy is 50 and really exists, there is evidence and a memory. Does anyone on the left care?
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/dem-operative-for-soros-funded-group-arrested-for-battery-against-republican-campaign-manager-in-nevada/

  311. Tina says:

    Major Nuissance always polls closer.

    Doing my absentee ballot now.

    Straight R ticket

  312. jason says:

    Hugh, they don’t care.

    It’s for the cause.

    Like Hillary said, you can’t be civil with people who disagree with you.

    Hey, Amoral Scumbag, GFY.

  313. jason says:

    Cannibals in CA?

    “Students at Da Vinci Charter Academy High School in Davis, Calif., have alleged that cookies distributed to classmates on campus contained cremated remains of one of their peers’ relatives.”

  314. Tina says:

    More Enema.

    Washington Examiner
    @dcexaminer
    Follow
    Fifth video shows Arizona Democratic Senate candidate mocking Arizona washex.am/2CQCD82
    3:32 PM – 17 Oct 2018
    Fifth video shows Arizona Democratic Senate candidate mocking Arizona
    Yet another video has surfaced featuring Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., disparaging the Grand Canyon State and its residents.
    Washington Examiner Washington Examiner @dcexaminer

  315. Tina says:

    Undercover Huber Undercover Huber
    @JohnWHuber
    2h
    “Sinema is a moderate Democrat” If Kyrsten Sinema is a “moderate” I’d hate to see an extremist, since she was ok with people joining the Taliban and promoted a lawyer who not only defended domestic terrorists but was convicted of helping a twin towers bomber twitter.com/claremalone/st…
    View details ·

  316. Bitterlaw says:

    My daughter’s 15 year old friend is undergoing heart surgery. Her mother asked for people to pray for her daughter. Many said they would pray. Others said they were “sending good thoughts” or “positive energy.”

    Here is my thought. If you are going to equate good thoughts and positive energy then you are being disrespectful and dismissive of the mother’s desire for prayer. If you do not pray, I think it is better to stay silent. I think the intentions of the non-prayerful was good but they did not respect the mom’s request.

    I do not pray because everybody I pray for dies soon thereafter. I am especially interested I. The views of Wes, db, lisab (hater of Christians), and our Evangelicals, DW and SoHope. Mr. Vito will just think I am a jerk,

  317. dblaikie says:

    Your daughter’s friend is in my prayers, Bitter.

  318. Wes says:

    I think if the person has no concept of religion, then offering to do the equivalent in his/her beliefs of the request then that is a good enough way to do as the mother requested.

  319. Mr.Vito says:

    I would think it’s nice to know people were caring for her if they weren’t praying. Maybe one might even try it.

  320. jason says:

    Since the word Republican is not in the headline…

    (CNN)Alaska’s lieutenant governor resigned abruptly Tuesday over what he said were “inappropriate comments” — which he and other officials have done little to further explain — providing an unexpected ripple in his boss’s re-election campaign just three weeks before voters go to the polls.
    Byron Mallott, in a letter to Gov. Bill Walker, said it is “a resignation compelled by inappropriate comments I made that placed a person whom I respect and revere in a position of vulnerability.”
    “I take full responsibility for this action and apologize to, and seek healing for, the person I hurt,” the letter reads.”

  321. jason says:

    I am not religious and don’t pray for myself.

    But I will certainly pray for you daughter’s friend.

    And I agree that sending “positive wishes” if the mother asked for prayers is idiotic.

  322. jason says:

    To me, if someone asks for prayers, you should pray or abstain from any action.

    It’s like if the family says no flowers for a funeral and you send flowers.

  323. NYCmike says:

    Prayer, in my opinion, is positive thought. Good vibes and good energy are fine with me.

  324. NYCmike says:

    The flowers thing is a lot more tangible than prayer.

    Flowers…..are flowers.

    Prayers are up to the individual.

  325. NYCmike says:

    Besides, who gives a rats ass about what form people’s good feelings will be in when there is a young girl getting some serious surgery!

  326. Bitterlaw says:

    That was a respectful and thoughtful discussion. Of course, lisab did not comment yet.

  327. lisab says:

    well i was having dinner …

    but, if you must know, and i gather you must …

    i don’t think that when a woman feels she is at risk of losing her daughter is an appropriate time to have a theological discussion about your beliefs with her …

    although, i don’t think any time is really an appropriate time to have such a discussion unless both parties want to do so.

    if she directly asked me to pray for her daughter i would simply say, “yes” and let her read into my answer what she wished.

  328. MichiganGuy says:

    New Hampshire
    .
    Governor:
    .
    Sununu (R) 49%
    Kelly (D) 39%
    .
    NH01:
    .
    Pappas (D) 44%
    Edwards (R) 36%
    .
    NH02:
    .
    Kuster (D-inc) 49%
    Negron (R) 22%
    .
    Saint Anselm Poll
    https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/gubernatorial-and-congressional-races-take-shape-latest-poll

  329. MichiganGuy says:

    Ohio
    .
    Governor:
    .
    DeWine (R) 37%
    Cordray (D) 36%
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Brown (D) 43%
    Renacci (R) 31%
    .
    University of Akron Bliss Institute
    https://www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/Bliss%20Poll%202018.pdf

  330. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    319. “Doing my absentee ballot now. Straight Republican ticket”

    Which Republican did you vote for in the U.S. Senate race?

  331. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan #11
    .
    Stevens (D) 36%
    Epstein (R) 35%
    Undecided 27%
    .
    Harper Polling
    .
    Stevens (D) 44%
    Epstein (R) 34%
    Undecided 16%
    .
    Anzalone Liszt Grove Poll
    http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-shows-tight-race-dave-trotts-open-michigan-seat

  332. MichiganGuy says:

    Too many undecided in all these polls. WTH!

  333. MichiganGuy says:

    New York Times out with a political hit piece…
    New report: Florida GOP Gov. Rick Scott’s ‘blind trust’ is a sham to hide his conflicts of interest
    .
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/rick-scott-conflicts-blind-trust.html

  334. CG says:

    I know there might not be a lot of interest in the Illinois Governor race, but there was a pretty interesting development today.

    Yes, it does remain practically inevitable that billionaire Democrat JB Pritzker will win. He just surpassed Meg Whitman to become the politician who has ever spent the most personal wealth in any campaign.

    Today though, it came out that 10 *current* Pritzker campaign staffers, all people of color, have filed a lawsuit against the campaign alleging racial discrimination. They claim that they do not have the same opportunities in the campaign as white staffers and that they are forced to do strictly minority-like duties like “round up 40 black guys for an event.” They claim that racially insensitive comments are often made by people in the campaign. These are all active Democrats, who have worked on other Democrat campaigns as well.

    Pritzker and his African-American female running-mate, who have in the past said that all accusations of discrimination or harassment must be believed, are flatly denying this and saying it is not true. They are alleging a financial shakedown.

    And they may very well be right. The plaintiffs, who are again, all active Democrats, tried to get Pritzker to cut a big check before the lawsuit was filed. A billionaire white liberal politician is quite a big mark, to say the least, in the age of these kind of left-wing tactics.

    Either all 10 are telling the truth about stuff in the campaign or he just managed to hire a lot of really bad people who would lie about this for financial advantage.

    It’s a shame this race is not closer or that Rauner is not better able to take advantage of this development. Pritzker is probably going to be Governor and dislike many aspects of it.

  335. jason says:

    The flowers thing is a lot more tangible than prayer.”

    I fail to be surprised by your stupidity anymore. I used to be astounded, but at some point it just becomes routine.

  336. NYCmike says:

    Every time I think NY is bad, Illinois has a good story.

    Thank GOD we had Rudy for those 8 years, which showed Bloomie how to do it for his 12. Otherwise….yikes.

  337. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!
    .
    Arizona Early Vote!
    .
    Republicans 45.7%
    Democrats 31.4%
    Unaffiliated 22.3%
    http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics
    —————————————————————————————————————
    I don’t know how that compares to prior years but, I don’t see a blue wave in Arizona.

  338. jason says:

    Interesting about IL.

    This story might have legs outside of IL however, even if it doesn’t help Rauner.

  339. NYCmike says:

    Don’t send Flowers! (Flowers show up)

    Don’t say prayers! (Try to stop me)

    I don’t think we can blame it on the llama anymore…..the llama can smell the flowers….

  340. JeffP says:

    346 Boom…from what I have been reading the absentee ballot returns are trending the GOP in a very positive way in many states. Could see a few surprises on Election Day.

  341. jason says:

    if she directly asked me to pray for her daughter i would simply say, “yes” and let her read into my answer what she wished.”

    Wow, lisab gave a better answer than NYC on something involving prayer.

    Who wouda thunk?

  342. Hugh says:

    What’s amazing is that being a republican governor of Illinois is such a waste of time I could care who is the governor of Illinois. Any billionaire who wants to be the Democratic governor of Illinois is a moron. There is zero chance of fixing that ship.

  343. JeffP says:

    Love this song from Sticky Fingers…

    And you can send me dead flowers every morning
    Send me dead flowers by the mail
    Send me dead flowers to my wedding
    And I won’t forget to put roses on your grave

  344. jason says:

    Don’t say prayers! (Try to stop me)

    LOL, you really are a moron.

    The mother ASKED for prayers, the exact opposite.

    Add “can’t read” to “astounding stupidity”.

  345. jason says:

    “I do not pray because everybody I pray for dies soon thereafter.”

    I am glad I don’t have this type of power, I can’t guarantee I wouldn’t be tempted…

  346. MichiganGuy says:

    California Governor:
    .
    Newsom (D) 50.7%
    Cox (R) 43.3%
    Unsure: 5.9%
    .
    ICYMI TPStrat Poll
    ————————————————-
    Voter Enthusiasm

    Republicans have eclipsed Democrats in their levels of enthusiasm beyond the margin of error this week. Lastly week the enthusiasm was high on both sides but was tied within the margin.

    Editorial from Strategist John Thomas:

    It is fascinating to see Republican’s enthusiasm remain highly charged post Kavanaugh confirmation. Make no mistake, both sides are charged up but Republicans are taking a clear lead this week in enthusiasm. If these numbers remain high going into November this might just be enough to help the GOP hold some of the Orange County congressional races.
    We are watching the generic ballot to see if a wave is building. Typically, a widening of the generic ballot accelerates as we approach Election Day. So far the ballot has remained relatively constant indicating that while Democrats have a clear advantage, there appears to be no wave in California building.
    https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=a5fa95a604

  347. MichiganGuy says:

    s/b last week

  348. jason says:

    According to the MSM, this kind of thing doesn’t happen in countries with strict gun regulations.,

    “At least 18 people, many of them teenagers, were killed, and over 50 others were injured in a bomb and shooting attack at a college in Crimea that local officials said was carried out by a student.

    Investigators said the attack was carried out by a lone 18-year-old student at the state polytechnic college, who entered the school on Wednesday afternoon armed with a gun and began shooting people and set off a bomb in the college’s cafeteria, before killing himself.”

  349. Hugh says:

    Just watching fox cheerleading it’s poll. These pollsters are either really bad or we are going to get crushed. My prediction plus 3 senate seats and within a couple seats of winning or losing the house. Does anyone believe the top issue for most Americans relative to how to vote is healthcare? I don’t. Do you?

  350. jason says:

    If Cox really gets 43%, or more with some of the undecided breaking for him, some of the close races might go to the GOP.

  351. Wobbles says:

    “I don’t. Do you?”

    Not me. I think it’s Horsefacegate.

  352. Hugh says:

    With the CA legislature having the worlds most progressive candidate or most liberal candidate makes zero difference. I hope the republicans spend all their money somewhere else.

  353. Hugh says:

    Sorry I meant most progressive or most conservative candidate win the governorship makes no difference

  354. dblaikie says:

    This is the second poll in the last two weeks that has Cox less than 10 points behind. It deserves a BOOM! If Cox can make a race out of this along with the proposition to eliminate the hated gas tax GOP turnout will rise in very positive ways. A Governors race that is race will help CD races in a big. I am not stupid. Cox isn’t going to win in California, but a good showing by him will enable other folks to have a good chance.

  355. Hugh says:

    363. Reasonable point. Might make dems who normally figure they will win big so they don’t vote get off the sidewalk their begging on a go vote.

  356. Phil says:

    363

    If Cox can stay within high single digits it absolutely could save a congressional seat or two.

  357. Hugh says:

    363. I do hope you’re right and think that is more likely than not. Also I love the optimism.

  358. sandiegocitizen says:

    In my view Cox is a non-entity. What your seeing is an anti-Newsom vote. Cox is the other name on the ballot. A better candidate would be competitive. Sadly, the Californian Republican party is a disaster. We refer to the Republican mayor of San Diego as the gopher. He went down his hole and has never been seen since.

  359. sandiegocitizen says:

    Trump is more important to the election of Republican congress members than Cox. I have never seen a Cox add or gotten a mailer.

  360. jason says:

    What is the problem with Cox?

    I watched an interview with him and he was pretty darn articulate.

  361. jason says:

    I have never seen a Cox add or gotten a mailer.”

    No ads and he has 43%?

    Sounds like a great candidate.

  362. jason says:

    Some numbers over at Predictit.

    It doesn’t really Predict anything, it just shows what investors are thinking at a certain moment.

    Numbers do not always add up to 100% because they are separate bets

    Control of House D 67% R 38%

    Control of Senate R 87% D 14%

    Manchin re-elected Y 77% N 23%

    McCaskill re-elected Y 32% N 68%

    Tester re-elected Y 62% N 38%

    Heitkamp re-elected Y 16% N 84%

    Donnelly re-elected Y 54% N 44%

    Menendez re-elected Y 76% N 24%

    Heller re-elected Y 61% N 39%

    GA Governor’s race R 69% D 34%

    FL governor’s race R 50% D 59%

    Ted Cruz re-elected Y 83% N 17%

  363. jason says:

    I don’t see a lot of good bets here.

    I might take Morissey at 4 to 1 on a lark.

  364. Phil says:

    Nate Silver just jumped the number of Democratic House seat pickups from 33 to 39.

    He’s all in.

  365. Phil says:

    Nate Silver just jumped the number of Democratic House seat pickups from 33 to 39.

    He’s all in.

  366. Janz says:

    There are 2 propositions on the ballot that might energize the R vote, and perhaps throw a bone over to Cox. Prop 6, repealing the gas tax so far is looking favorable to pass, even though tons of opposition “no” money is being thrown at it, Then there is prop 10, the statewide rent control measure that I hope every “thinking” CA resident will vote “no” on.

  367. jason says:

    Trump is more important to the election of Republican congress members than Cox. I have never seen a Cox add or gotten a mailer.”

    I don’t see it.

    Trump got 31% in CA, a truly pitiful showing. I doubt he is more popular now there.

    Seems to me if Cox can get 45% of the vote he will be a lot more helpful to GOP candidates than Trump will.

  368. sandiegocitizen says:

    375. Agree Janz, the gas tax repeal will get a lot of conservative voters to the polls. The rent control measure has bipartisan opposition, so may get voters from both parties to turn out more. The gas tax repeal effort is very well run. Am getting a lot of campaign mailers, and am solicited for donations about every week.

  369. sandiegocitizen says:

    The candidate on the ballot not named Newsom will get 40-45% of the vote. Lassie would gain that percentage. Newsom is loathed.

  370. MichiganGuy says:

    NT