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Scott Leads Nelson By 2% in FL, Braun Trails By 4% in IN

St. Pete Polls came out with a new poll for the state of Florida and it shows Republican Rick Scott up by 2% over Bill Nelson.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (SPP)
Rick Scott (R) 49%
Bill nelson (D-inc) 47%

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (SPP)
Andrew Gillum (D) 47%
Ron DeSantis (R) 46%

This poll was done October 15-16 among 1974 likely voters. Will Libertarian Lucy Brenton get enough votes to possibly cause Republican Mike Braun to lose in Indiana? That is what Gravis Marketing is showing in their latest poll.

US SENATE – INDIANA (Gravis)
Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 44%
Mike Braun (R) 40%
Lucy Brenton (L) 7%

This poll was done October 12-16 among 377 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 5:35 am
Filed under: General | Comments (47)

47 Responses to “Scott Leads Nelson By 2% in FL, Braun Trails By 4% in IN”

  1. MichiganGuy says:

    First!

  2. MichiganGuy says:

    “Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzalez interviewed the executive directors of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) about the upcoming midterms at an event hosted by Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics & Public Service.”
    .
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?453162-1/discussion-2018-midterm-elections

  3. MichiganGuy says:

    New Mexico
    .
    Early Voting
    .
    Senate
    .
    Johnson (L) 50%
    Rich (R) 25%
    Heinrich (D) 25%
    .
    District #1
    .
    Princeton (L) 50%
    Jones (R) 25%
    Haaland (D) 25%
    .
    District #2
    .
    Herrell (R) 66%
    Small (D) 34%
    .
    District #3
    .
    Manning (L) 50%
    McFall (R) 25%
    LuJuan (D) 25%
    .
    http://electionresults.sos.state.nm.us/resultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    These are unofficial results and clearly just a small percent have voted so far.

  4. wheelz91 says:

    The results in 3 are in test mode and are not real votes

  5. MichiganGuy says:

    #4 I seen that and that maybe true or that may be their way of a disclaimer. I’m not sure why if in fact it wasn’t actual votes; why they would make that available to the public. Either way, it’s a good link to get the actual votes when they decide to put them out.

  6. Hugh says:

    Great ad which I just saw in Lauderdale. https://future45.com/

    Scroll down the page for the video

  7. MichiganGuy says:

    Hugh, that is a great ad. I would also like them to do an ad with Antifa destroying property and assaulting people; also show MS-13 gang members and say this is what dems support.

  8. Todd McCain says:

    Looks like the GOP extended their mail in ballot lead in Florida by another 4000 votes yesterday.

  9. MichiganGuy says:

    AK AL:
    .
    Don Young (R-inc) 48%
    Alyse Galvin (D) 44%
    .
    Lake_Research/Alyse Galvin (D)
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eyHp1DWBN6U6oqsJ7VbnMQgo9HgY_Ez7/view

  10. mnw says:

    Hugh 6

    I love the ad too, but it’s hardly designed to woo voters in the middle!

    I always wonder if real voters anywhere actually SEE ads that we post & pass around.

  11. mnw says:

    MG 9

    That’s a DEM internal, just so folks know.

  12. MichiganGuy says:

    Todd, we will need all the help we can get. We may lose 20,000 votes from the Panhandle area if those people aren’t able to vote.

  13. MichiganGuy says:

    Yes, mnw that is why you see the dem candidate’s name after the polling company followed by (D)

  14. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, that is the 4th poll showing it a close race. Granted 1 was a PPP (D) poll and this one here. Then you have (2) Alaska Survey Research Polls.

  15. Tgca says:

    Quince!

  16. MichiganGuy says:

    New York
    Governor:
    .
    Cuomo (D) 58%
    Molinaro (R) 35%
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Gillibrand (D) 58%
    Farley (R) 33%
    .
    Quinnipiac
    https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2580
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    Why isn’t President Trump in New York helping our candidates? This is his home state! Oh wait, never mind.

  17. mnw says:

    Siena is done in CO-06 & has the DEM there +9. Crow (D) ahead of Coffman (R-inc).

    Siena has AZ SEN tied, so far.

  18. DW says:

    “Siena is done in CO-06 & has the DEM there +9”

    Their prior poll was +13

  19. Todd McCain says:

    That Indiana poll is just so worthless; the L candidate is not going to get 7%. Donnelly at 44 is precarious. Braun hasn’t really run the best campaign, but my belief is he ekes it through.

  20. Messy says:

    16. that’s because we know him so well…..

  21. Todd McCain says:

    Trump back in MT tonight for a MAGA rally.

  22. Messy says:

    10. I saw that thing on CBS last night.

  23. mnw says:

    Todd 19

    It was discussed, either here or at RRH, that the IN Libertarian got 6% in the 2014 midterm. (going by memory)

    The RCP “no tossups” Senate projection is GOP +3, at the moment anyway.

  24. Todd McCain says:

    Looks like this Lucy Brenton got 5% in 2016.

  25. mnw says:

    TN SEN (warning: garbage):

    SSRS polling, working for Vanderbilt University, has Bredesen (D) +1 over Blackburn (R), among 800 RVs (not LVs).

    Same poll shows Lee (R) +11 for TN Gov.

  26. mnw says:

    Sheep 24

    I hate you.

  27. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #’s 27 & 28
    You have joined a long list!

    This same outfit,SSRS, on 09/17 had Bredesen(D) +5, 45/50.
    https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/17/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-tennessee-senate/index.html

  28. mnw says:

    Hugh 25

    That’s a fascinating link. Thx.

    Our very own MichiganGuy has been reporting this data also.

  29. DW says:

    Update on Siena polling, for what its worth

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:
    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.
    CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.
    PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.
    AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.
    MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.
    CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.
    MN_02 – 39/51. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.
    MI_11 – 38/45. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.
    NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.
    CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.
    CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.
    KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.
    IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.
    KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.
    IL_06 – 39/40. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.
    TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.
    NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.
    MI_11 – 38/45. A lot of undecided at this point, but still a decent lead for the Dem.
    PA_01 – 42/50. Suprising result given the GOP is expected to hold this seat.
    CO_06 – 38/47. A little closer than last time they polled it. Perhaps Coffman closing some or prior poll was junk.
    KS_03 – 39/48. Probably time to stick a fork in Yoder.
    ME_02 – 41/42*. Closer their first poll which had an R+6 lead.
    NJ_11 – 38/49*. A blowout Dem flip.
    FL_27 – 37/45*. Curious given Mason-Dixon just found R+2 in their poll.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:
    MN_08 – 43/42. Slim lead for Stauber trying to flip seat to R.
    NC_09 – 47/42. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.
    WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.
    CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.
    NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.
    NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.
    KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.
    MI_08 – 47/44. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.
    ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.
    TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.
    VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.
    OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.
    IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.
    VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.
    TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.
    FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.
    WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.
    NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.
    WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.
    NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R
    TX_31 – 53/38. Blowout and a wasted poll.
    PA_16 – 50/42. No blue wave here.
    NC_13 – 47/41. No blue wave here either.
    NY_01 – 49/41. No surprise on this seat.
    IL_14 – 47/43. Close, and most have this one as Lean R.
    MN_08 – 49/34. Blowout lead for Stauber. Prior poll was just R+1
    AZ_06 – 50/36. Not a surprise, and a waste of a poll.
    WV_03 – 46/41*. Not as good as their first poll, but still in progress.
    TX_23 – 53/38*. A blowout – last time they polled was R+9
    WA_03 – 47/41*. No surprise here.

    *In Progress

  30. Phil says:

    Silver has now gone all in on the blue wave. In the last four days has gone from a Democratic House 33 House pickup to 39 today.

  31. MichiganGuy says:

    The Tennessee Poll actually is good news. The last poll SSRS did for CNN had Bredesen up by 5 points (50-45) This one has him up only by 1 point.

  32. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #29
    Add: This appears to be a TN Poll of Registered,not Likely voters.

    https://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/toplines-midterm-poll-2018.pdf

  33. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #33
    See post #29.

    Also, do not be surprised if one or more TX Senaterescue polls are published soon.

  34. MichiganGuy says:

    #29 Sheeple beat me to it.

  35. MichiganGuy says:

    I don’t hate you Sheeple. Do us a favor though and slow down. Let some of us join in the fun. 🙂

  36. DW says:

    32 – based on fundraising. Someone needs to tell Silver people are already voting.

  37. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    Actually those updated returned vote by mail numbers from Florida do not look very good at all. Republicans percentage has now dropped below 2014 final percentage results and Democratic percentage is now above 2014 final percentage results.

  38. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #39
    Blah,Blah,Blah. Now get lost or post at RRH!

  39. Todd McCain says:

    39. How? We gained an additional 3000 votes from yesterday in the mail in ballots. We are now ahead 43,000.

  40. DW says:

    I for one don’t care about early voting stats. Its not like people get to vote early, and then vote again on election day (outside of Philly).

    And if I recall correctly, Hillary had Trump smashed and defeated in FL due to the signals from early voting, a point that President Hillary made in her inauguration speech.

  41. Todd McCain says:

    Tallahassee was hit pretty hard as well; so losses from the GOP areas in the panhandle could be offset by losses in Tallahassee

  42. mnw says:

    RAS Th.

    47/52 (34/43)

    Also reporting that voters expect DEMs to take the House but not the Senate.

  43. mnw says:

    DW

    Pls read the Larry Schweikart tweets linked in post 25 above.

    Shweikart predicted that Trump would beat Hillary, & he did so consistently & often. I don’t know anyone else who did that– but maybe Ann Coulter did.

  44. BayernFan says:

    NT

  45. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    Look at the Florida 2014 final numbers for mail votes per party.
    Start there and then compare percentages between 2014 vs 2018.