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Blackburn Leads Bredesen By 3% or Bredesen Leads Blackburn By 1% in TN

We have two new polls from Tennessee that give two different leaders, although they are within the margin of error in both polls. One comes from the University of Virginia and Reuters/Ipsos and the other comes from Vanderbilt University.

US SENATE – TENNESSEE (UVA/Reuters/Ipsos)
Marsha Blackburn (R) 47%
Phil Bredesen (D) 44%

US SENATE – TENNESSEE (Vanderbilt)
Phil Bredesen (D) 44%
Marsha Blackburn (R) 43%

The UVA poll was done October 4-11 among likely voters. The Vanderbilt poll was done October 8-13 among registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 10:17 am
Filed under: General | Comments (315)

315 Responses to “Blackburn Leads Bredesen By 3% or Bredesen Leads Blackburn By 1% in TN”

  1. BayernFan says:

    First

  2. jason says:

    Thanks Indiana deadender!

  3. DW says:

    Vox Populi says Kavanaugh a boom for Dems and bust for GOP:

    IN – Donnelly up 10
    WV – Manchin up 6
    NV – Rosen up 2

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/backlash-kavanaugh-vote-not-helping-key-republicans

  4. Todd McCain says:

    Manchin being only up 6 is the closest that race has been in months.

  5. jason says:

    Manchin up 6 is not great for him.

    Donnelly will not win by 10 you read it here first.

  6. jason says:

    Since polls in IN and WV showed approval for Kavanaugh its hard to see that his confirmation is responsible for Manchin and Donnelly being up.

    Makes no sense.

  7. jason says:

    Not to mention Manchin voted for him.

    Is the “backlash” helping Morissey?

  8. DW says:

    Apparently the Vox polls were online polls, not random sampling. So take them for what they are worth. Even RRH brushed them off.

  9. MichiganGuy says:

    #5 The 3 Vox Populi Polls are from 100 RVs. LOL Garbage polls

  10. DW says:

    Astros had their own version of Steve Bartman last night who interfered with Altuve’s might-have-been homer as it was unclear if the Red Sox outfielder would have made the catch to rob the homer. Instead, it was an out via fan interference.

  11. hugh says:

    So why would the Washington examiner being writing on these vox polls? with friends like that who needs enemies.

  12. Waingro says:

    The polling in Indiana seem garbage, but unfortunately, we haven’t seen any other polling to show things going Braun’s way. Would really hurt to lose that possible pickup.

  13. DW says:

    Looking at Siena again comparing the races that they have re-polled to look for momentum:

    1) MN_08 43/42, R+1
    2) MN_08 49/34, R+15

    1) TX_23 49/40, R+9
    2) TX_23 53/38, R+15 (in progress)

    1) CO_06 38/52, D+14
    2) CO_06 38/47, D+9

    1) KS_03 43/51, D+8
    2) KS_03 39/48, D+9

    1) WV_03 48/37, R+11
    2) WV_03 46/41, R+5 (in progress)

    1) ME_02 46/40, R+6
    2) ME_02 41/42, D+1 (in progress)

    Probably better to simply average each set as I don’t see much here. MN_08 and TX_23 could just be increased leads to candidate quality, the others don’t have huge swings.

  14. Robbie says:

    I get to see quite a bit of the Indiana Senate advertising here in Kentucky. Until the last week or so, Mike Braun was not active on the airwaves here. My TV market covers a good portion of Southern Indiana. In contrast, he was very active during the primary season both on TV and the radio.

    I hope the deadenders are happy. Knocking out Richard Lugar was GENIUS!

  15. Robbie says:

    Given the political bent of Indiana, I still think Braun can win, but he hasn’t been a particularly strong candidate. His interview on FoxNews the other night was underwhelming in my book.

  16. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 18, 2018 at 10:46 am
    Since polls in IN and WV showed approval for Kavanaugh its hard to see that his confirmation is responsible for Manchin and Donnelly being up.
    Makes no sense.

    – Both candidates have proven to be stronger than the challengers Republicans nominated. Remember, Evan Jenkins was the preferred choice of McConnell in WV and in Indiana I think McConnell was desperate to find someone other than the top three finishers. Peyton Manning was floated as a candidate there (he was in Tennessee as well).

  17. DW says:

    I am not going to worry yet about Indiana…the last senate race there broke late to the GOP if I recall.

    Polling late in the 2016 Indiana Senate race:

    10/13/16: Monmouth D+6
    10/16/16: Hoosier D+6
    10/24/16: Gravis D+2
    10/30/16: Monmouth (tied)
    11/01/16: Gravis D+3
    11/03/16: Howey R+5

    Young won by ten points.

    Now this time, I might add that Donnelly isn’t exactly Evan Bayh, but not sure Braun is as strong as Young. But He doesn’t need to win by ten, if he wins by 1 point he still gets 100% of the seat.

  18. dblaikie says:

    I wonder why no one has pulled the Montana race? Not trying to indulge in conspiracy theories, but it seems strange that the media and college polling units are not polling Montana.

  19. dblaikie says:

    polled the Montana race …

  20. Robbie says:

    *THIS IS NOT A FINAL PREDICTION*

    As of today, I think Republicans hold TX, TN, and NV, but lose AZ. I think Republicans gain ND and MO. There’s plenty of time for the other races to move towards Republicans and I suspect many of the undecided voters are traditional lean Republican votes.

    In the House, I still think a 30 seat loss is the most likely thanks to the collapse in the suburbs while I think Republicans will lose the governorships in FL, OH, MI, WI, NM, and ME. I think Republicans hold onto tight races in IA and KS.

    In the state houses, I think Republicans lose around 250 legislative seats.

  21. Robbie says:

    I find this significant because this is the first time in his presidency that Trump has cleared the 45% mark. He’s bumped up against that level on rare occasions, but has always dropped back. Getting above that mark and staying there would reset the election, certainly in the Senate races.

    Henry Olsen
    @henryolsenEPPC

    Four polls taken between Saturday and Tuesday show Trump job approval up – 45, 45, 47, and 49. If other polls follow suit his approval will be peaking right before the midterms.

  22. CG says:

    Don’t forget our IL Governor loss!

    (Due in part to a pro-Trump third party candidate who is now going after his fellow conservative Republican State Senators if they are officially backing Rauner)

  23. DW says:

    Sabato with a mixed bag of ratings changes and explanations today.

    This one is hilarious:

    “WA-8 is the shakiest: One recent poll from Crosscut/Elway Research showed Dino Rossi (R), a former statewide candidate, up 49%-39% on physician Kim Schrier (D). We still like Schrier’s chances despite the poll, although we very well may be wrong on that.”

    In other words, damn the polling, we are cheering hard for the Dem!

  24. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 18, 2018 at 11:19 am
    Don’t forget our IL Governor loss!
    (Due in part to a pro-Trump third party candidate who is now going after his fellow conservative Republican State Senators if they are officially backing Rauner)

    – I knew there was one I was forgetting.

  25. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 18, 2018 at 11:16 am
    Monmouth NJ-Sen poll:
    Menendez: 49
    Hugin: 40

    – This is what we call the fool’s gold of Senate races.

  26. DW says:

    Then after all the long discussion, Sabato’s article ends with this…not exactly projecting confidence like 538 that its all over but the cleanup from the blue-wave:

    “That works out to a Democratic gain of 19 seats, six short of the goal of 25 assuming that the Republicans pick up at least two current Democratic seats. And, remember, Republicans may pick up more than just two Democratic-held seats, although probably not many more than that.

    Another way of looking at this is that we see the floor for net Democratic gains as 17, about three-quarters of the way to 23 net seats, which would flip the House to a Democratic majority.
    Still, this district-by-district roadmap does show that the Democrats are knocking on the door of the House majority. And even though this list includes 66 GOP-held House seats, there are still others that Democrats might end up picking up that we may be missing. For instance, there are several districts in the Leans Republican column that didn’t even make this list, which just illustrates the potential for massive Democratic gains if things break their way on Election Night.”

  27. Todd McCain says:

    Looks like Trump needs to get back to Indiana.

  28. Waingro says:

    #23, reasonable prediction, but I think the R’s hold onto AZ as well. Sinema has imploded.

  29. Waingro says:

    #30, yup. He should get Bobby Knight on the phone again too!

  30. DW says:

    Updated dashboard:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NY_23 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 151 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    CA_22 R | 152 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 154 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OH_10 R | 155 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    AK_01 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    TX_31 R | 163 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    FL_06* R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 166 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 168 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_21* R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    FL_18 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    FL_15* R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 3
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 179 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    FL_16 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.6
    NY_27 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
    AR_02 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    IL_13 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    WA_05 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    PA_10 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    UT_04 R | 195 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    IL_14 R | 197 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
    WV_03* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 199 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    MN_08* D | 200 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    OH_01 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    VA_02 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    IL_12 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    FL_26 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    MN_01* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    PA_01 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.2
    NJ_07 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    TX_32 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    ME_02 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_48 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    NY_19 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -0.8
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    NJ_11* R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    CO_06 R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    MI_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.1
    FL_13 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5

    *indicates open seat

  31. DW says:

    So you can see by the above averages of forecaster’s predictions that in fact control of the house is a tossup, even by their rankings.

    Now below you can see the dashboard by actual polling:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    OR_05 – D – 56/33 (Gravis-internal) | 20
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 16
    AZ_06 – R – 50/36 (Siena) | 14
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    CA_22 – R – 48/43 (Tulchin-D) | 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 11
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    NY_11 – R – 47/39 (PPP-D-Internal) | 11
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 11
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 9
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 9
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 49/34 (Siena) | 9
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 50/46 (D-Int) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 49/37 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 7
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 50/43 (CNU) | 7
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 6
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 6
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) | 45/41 (PPP-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 5
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 5
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 44/41 (SUSA) | 5
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (D-Int) | 50/46 (ASR) | 46/43 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 49/47 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 4
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 46/46 (U of UT) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 46/43 (Siena) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) |45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 49/44 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 3
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 43/45 (D-Int) | 2
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 46/45 (Mason-Dixon) | 2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 1
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    WV_03* – R – 41/46 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 48/43 (Monmouth) | 1
    PA_01 – R – 50/46 (Monmouth) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 42/48 (Siena) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) |45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 39/44 (D-Int) | 1
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 47/45 (Stockton U) | 0
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) |45/44 (Siena) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 39/40 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | -1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 34/36 (Emerson) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | -2
    NV_03* – D – 39/41 (Emerson) | -2
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monm.) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | -3
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | -4
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | 39/48 (Siena) | -5
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | 41/48 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – (45/45 IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | 38/47 (Siena) | -6
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | 35/36 (R-Int) | 39/48 (D-Int) | -6
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | 34/45 (DeSales U) | -8
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | 43/45 (R-Int) | -8
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | 35/40 (Emerson) | 36/44 (St. Anselm) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NY_25 – D – 31/55 (Siena) | 36/53 (Siena) | -17
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | 25/44 (Emerson) | 22/49 (St. Anselm) | -25

  32. DW says:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04, OR_05

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, MI_08, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  33. Justin says:

    #11 – The Indiana poll was of 783 voters.

    Those other numbers that add up to 100 are percentages, not raw numbers.

    https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/IN-Statewide-Survey-Topline-Results-October-2018.pdf

    I would be shocked if Donnelly is up anywhere close to 10. But, why isn’t Pence camped out there?

  34. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 18, 2018 at 11:36 am
    #23, reasonable prediction, but I think the R’s hold onto AZ as well. Sinema has imploded.

    – I’d like to see some polling, but I do agree her past comments have hurt her. Honestly, I’m surprised McSally hasn’t performed better. Of course, the deadenders forced her to focus on Chemtrail until August rather than Sinema.

  35. Wes says:

    Robbie, McSally was up 6 in a recent poll. Another showed a tie. Siena is currently a tie as well.

  36. Hugh says:

    A poll that shows Donnelly up by 10 is best ignored. First to win Indiana donelly needs a large black turnout. I am not sure the current dem rhetoric is appealing compared to trumps who speaks more to their needs.

  37. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 18, 2018 at 11:58 am
    Robbie, McSally was up 6 in a recent poll. Another showed a tie. Siena is currently a tie as well.

    – The RCP database has 17 polls. McSally has lead just three of them and two come from the same pollster. I have no doubt she has closed the race thanks to Sinema’s previous comments and Kavanaugh, but I’d like to see some contemporary polling. The NYT has a poll in the field that has the race tied at 47%. If true, I’d probably say tie goes to the Republican in AZ, but I’d like to see more polling.

  38. Phil says:

    Unfortunately, I have to agree with Robbie about the House – a loss of 30 seats. Would love to buy into a simple 15 seat loss but when you practically guaranteed a 13 seat loss in California, Pa, and NJ the math just doesn’t work.

  39. DW says:

    Phil, my prediction right now is a loss of 24 seats to the Dems, but a gain of four back to the GOP, for a net of D+20. Three short of gaining control.

  40. DW says:

    And my prediction is based on actual polling and analysis of the key races that will decide it. For the Dems to reach of net of +30, everything would have to really go south for the GOP from here on out.

  41. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!

    Shalala just messed up big time!

    There’s a simple rule in running for Congress in Miami: don’t campaign with someone who praised Fidel Castro and fought sanctions against Venezuela’s dictatorial regime.

    But Donna Shalala didn’t figure it out until it was too late.
    .
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/18/donna-shalala-florida-castro-912087

  42. DW says:

    46 – Nice, but voting is already well under way. I hate early voting.

  43. mnw says:

    DW

    Did u read the Larry Schweikart tweets to which Hugh linked, on the previous thread?

    LS is very persuasive, I thought. My view is influenced by the fact that he consistently predicted Trump’s GE win over Hillary. I can’t think of anyone else who got that correct.

  44. DW says:

    One of the races I am struggling with is IL_06. Recently the toupees are all herding toward Lean D. One of them might have heard a rumor or something, and then once one flips the status, they all follow. I cannot find anything to warrant it.

    Siena had it R+1. Otherwise its been a swapping of internal polling.

  45. DW says:

    Siena is weird, and increasingly I am suspicious of what they are doing. There was NO reason to poll AZ_06, or re-poll TX_23. Now a redo of VA_02? Christopher Newport U just polled after Siena did the first time, and Taylor seems to be in good shape.

    CA_39 could use a poll however, so that’s good.

  46. DW says:

    48 – yes, read it. We will see.

  47. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 18, 2018 at 12:23 pm
    Unfortunately, I have to agree with Robbie about the House – a loss of 30 seats. Would love to buy into a simple 15 seat loss but when you practically guaranteed a 13 seat loss in California, Pa, and NJ the math just doesn’t work.

    – I think the point about NJ, PA, and CA doesn’t get enough consideration. The state supreme court in PA stole seats from Republicans and Trump’s low standing has just crushed the party in blue enclaves like NJ and CA.

    Going forward, the party has absolutely got to figure out a way to fix its problems in big states like NJ and especially CA.

  48. MichiganGuy says:

    * Breaking News *
    .
    Kleenex to rebrand ‘Mansize’ tissues as ‘Extra Large’ after sexism complaints
    .
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/412059-kleenex-to-rebrand-mansize-tissues-as-extra-large-after-sexism
    ———————————————————————————————————
    :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

  49. DW says:

    Why is it sexist to say men have huge noses?

  50. DW says:

    It took nearly 50,000 calls, but Siena has given up trying to get to 500 responses, stopping at 487 repsonses in NJ_11 showing a 49/38 lead for the dem. By comparison, Monmouth found it just 44/48.

    NJ_11 is well below the magic line and in fact is on the list of 24 R seats that I believe will flip to D.

  51. Todd McCain says:

    Kaiser Family Foundation Polls:

    Nelson 48
    Scott 45

    Heller 46
    Rosen 45

  52. CG says:

    #50,

    Things are really, really bad for Republicans in the Chicago suburbs under Trump (and Rauner).

    Maybe Roskam can find a way to pull it off. He is lucky his Democrat opponent is not an all-star candidate.

  53. CG says:

    Does Kleenex have a Jewish division?

    (Yes, I can make this joke.)

  54. CG says:

    Will the “Hungry Man” line of frozen dinners change their name to “Calorically Craving Cisgender and Gender non-normative Peoples?”

  55. Mr.Vito says:

    “Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is calling on Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, the man with whom she is currently locked in a tight race, to investigate a politically damaging undercover video showing McCaskill staffers saying that she masks her more radical political agenda and that Planned Parenthood hides its donations to her campaign.”

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/37284/democrat-sen-mccaskill-calls-investigation-james-barrett

  56. jason says:

    I predict DeSantis will win in FL.

  57. Robbie says:

    I remain surprised Scott isn’t beating Nelson. Bill Nelson looks like he’s been a resident of a morgue. However, nominating a dingbat like Ron Desantis did Scott no favors.

  58. CG says:

    Rick Scott is not going to win any aesthetic contests.

  59. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:06 pm
    I predict DeSantis will win in FL.

    – He’ll have to crush it in the I-4 corridor since the panhandle vote could be down due to the hurricane. Not sure he can do it since he’s fashioned himself a Trump clone and might need the suburbs to save him. Three weeks is a long time in politics though.

  60. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:08 pm
    Rick Scott is not going to win any aesthetic contests.

    – He looks better than Nelson, though. Seriously, Nelson looks pale white.

  61. Todd McCain says:

    Kaiser:

    Gillum 48
    DeSantis 40

    Laxalt 46
    Sisolak 40

  62. CG says:

    Who looks creepier would be an interesting Florida Senate poll.

    I just associate Nelson with someone who is getting up there in age. Scott looks kinda creepy, like the Blue Man Group adopted a Caucasian.

  63. Waingro says:

    “Gillum 48
    DeSantis 40 ”

    Ooph.

  64. Todd McCain says:

    I predict Scott will win, DeSantis, who knows…?

  65. CG says:

    I wonder what Adam Putnam is talking about these days..

  66. Waingro says:

    #70, the prospect for a full blown Berniecrat socialist becoming governor in pivotal, purplish Flordia is scary.

  67. Todd McCain says:

    When you have hard vote coming in, really who cares about the polls…43k vote lead so far is impressive, apparently it was only 12K in 2016 at this stage.

  68. CG says:

    If Gillum wins, and the Dem Presidential nominee is not African-American (such as Kamala Harris), then he is the VP candidate.

  69. Blobbie says:

    *THIS IS NOT A FINAL PREDICTION*

    I will predict a HUGE BLUE WAVE until the polls close

    at which point I will point to one of my many posts and say,

    “See I predicted the election exactly”

    and no matter the outcome, I will blame Trump.

    Finally, I define a Blue Tidal Wave as the GOP losing any seats anywhere for any reason.

  70. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:13 pm
    I wonder what Adam Putnam is talking about these days..

    – The only reason we got stuck with DeSantis is he went on FoxNews a bunch of times, said goofy stuff to get Trump’s attention, and then got Trump’s endorsement.

    Putnam would have a 5-7 point lead right now. Also, the next governor will get to appoint three Supreme Court justices.

    Major own goal by Trump and DeSantis’ biggest FoxNews backer Laura Ingraham.

  71. CG says:

    If DeSantis loses, (we will have to wait to see what happens), it will be interesting to hear the spin here about how Trump himself would still be able to win Florida in 2020.

  72. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-18-2018:
    Rep-301,825 Dem-258,727 Other-3,684 NPA-118,268 Total-682,504 as of 10/18/2018 1:03PM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-9.5% Dem-8.1%

    *of note, Reps closed the gap of total ballots requested today by roughly 4,000 for a net difference of 69,619.

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  73. CG says:

    And the unknowns are still whom the early voters actually voted for and what the Election Day turnout will be.

  74. Tina says:

    If Gillum wins, he is the front runner for the 2020 Presidential.

    I can get behind thenGilim-Beto ticket.

    Jebot

  75. Robbie says:

    lisab is blobbie, right?

  76. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:22 pm
    If Gillum wins, he is the front runner for the 2020 Presidential.
    I can get behind thenGilim-Beto ticket.
    Jebot

    – If Republicans get their teeth kicked in on election day, Nikki Haley should be the frontrunner in 2020.

    Sane people.

  77. Todd McCain says:

    Something is going on in Nevada though. Laxalt and Heller appear to be narrowly surging ahead and NV3/4 might be pick up opportunities.

  78. NYCmike says:

    blobbie is blobbie.
    Robbie is Robbie.

    NOBODY ELSE can match their DOOM!

  79. NYCmike says:

    “Why is it sexist to say men have huge noses?”

    -Babs Streisand and SJP say so!

  80. DW says:

    “He’ll have to crush it in the I-4 corridor since the panhandle vote could be down due to the hurricane.”

    Stop cheerleading. Tallahassee was hit almost as bad, and has a lot Dem votes there.

  81. NYCmike says:

    “– If Republicans get their teeth kicked in on election day, Nikki Haley should be the frontrunner in 2020.”

    -Did either chamber of Congress change hands when Reagan was President? GWB?

  82. DW says:

    CA_45:

    Porter 46%
    Walters 50%

    R-Internal

  83. NYCmike says:

    Which one is the R?

  84. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:24 pm
    blobbie is blobbie.
    Robbie is Robbie.
    NOBODY ELSE can match their DOOM!

    – And nobody else can match your ability to support candidates who lose unlosable races.

  85. CG says:

    With all due respect to Nikki Haley, I would turn to someone who has been as far away from DJT as possible.

  86. Harbinger of Sorrows says:

    “I would turn to someone who has been as far away from DJT as possible.”

    Hillary

  87. DW says:

    CA_45:

    Porter (D) 46%
    Walters (R) 50%

    R-Internal

  88. ReadyFirst says:

    48. mnw. Good post, it’s what I was saying about a week ago to you. Roughly half the votes will be cast before election day as early and absentee voting becomes more prevalent. That’s why the absentee returns matter now. Both sides are energized. Dems had Reps by maybe a three point increase in the primaries, no blue wave. Perhaps by more in the deep blue districts, but not in the ones that matter. I think since the primary, Reps have tightened those numbers up as we’re seeing in the absentee/early voting. Polls mean very little to me now, other than perhaps the D/R weighting. Real votes say a whole lot more about what’s truly going on and as you see from my #78 Reps for the past week roughly have been increasing their lead of the total absentee vote by 1/10th of a percent every day. This is not huge, but it’s FL and it’s damn sure no blue wave so far.

  89. CG says:

    Republicans never had the House under Reagan. Under GWB, they lost the House, and then lost the White House two years later.

    But that was when he was a lame duck, not a perspective candidate for reelection. So, there is a difference.

    I think we all expect Republicans to keep the Senate this cycle, due to the map.

  90. NYCmike says:

    Correction:

    “With all due respect to Nikki Haley, I would turn to someone who has been as far away from President DJT, WINNER of the 2016 Presidential Election, as possible.”

  91. CG says:

    The next Republican nominee and President should be someone who has never been present at one of Donald Trump’s many weddings.

  92. NYCmike says:

    “-Did either chamber of Congress change hands….”

    Reagan had the Senate, didn’t he, and then lost it?

  93. CG says:

    Republicans held the Senate for the first six years of Reagan’s Presidency.

    Second mid-terms are supposed to be worse than the first.

  94. Wes says:

    Bill Clinton would disagree with you about second midterms, Corey.

  95. Wes says:

    For that matter, so would Harry Truman.

  96. Harbinger of Sorrows says:

    Anyone still think these two aren’t rooting for the GOP to lose?

  97. CG says:

    Clinton’s first midterm was historically bad.

  98. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:26 pm
    “– If Republicans get their teeth kicked in on election day, Nikki Haley should be the frontrunner in 2020.”
    -Did either chamber of Congress change hands when Reagan was President? GWB?

    – In 1982, Republicans lost 26 House seats due to the economy. In 2006, Republicans lost the House and Senate due to the Iraq war. In 2018, Republicans will likely lose the House because of Trump’s behavior.

    Try as you might to spin that, you can’t. Trump has made the election a referendum on himself and his behavior. If voters were judging Trump on the economy, the House would not be in danger.

    And this election won’t just be about the House and Senate. It will be about governorships and the state houses. In both instances, Republicans appear ready to suffer major setbacks.

  99. Wes says:

    His second midterm was historically good. He was one of only two Presidents during the 20th Century to see his party gain seats in a house of Congress in his second midterm.

  100. ReadyFirst says:

    And as I recall, Gov. Scott in his last two elections was down in the polls and predicted to lose both times. I stand by my post yesterday:

    October 17, 2018 at 12:29 pm

    188. TM et al. Desantis’ problems have been organizational, and winning over Putnam supporters. I was at the local county Republican meeting last week (last before the election) and they had to apologize because they still didn’t have yard signs from Desantis. I saw on FB a couple days ago they were now available at party HQ, but something so basic demonstrates a campaign organizational issue. Desantis finally had a photo op/endorsement from our local sheriffs (ours was Putnam a supporter) but this is the first I’ve seen of Desantis in our county. My county is a critical part of Central Fl and usually delivers big Rep vote totals. I believe Desantis has righted the ship with his new campaign manager and expect good things from him here on out. Gillum has also been portrayed in the media as the fresh faced man of color, and his negatives are really just now becoming known to low info voters. The premise that Desantis’ problems are all because of a stale comment blown out of proportion, and that most people have already forgotten, is wrong in my opinion.

  101. Tina says:

    Sd, I rote my name in for Ca Senate.

    Cannot choose between Frankenstein and the other loon.

    Both crooks and should be in jail.

    One paid for by China, and the other paid for by Mexico.

  102. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:32 pm
    With all due respect to Nikki Haley, I would turn to someone who has been as far away from DJT as possible.

    – She’s not going to run in 2020 so this is a moot point, but she did a fine job of not being diminished by the Trump presidency. The only other person who can say that is Mattis.

    And if Trump chose not to run, it’s hard to imagine someone with distance from Trump who could actually win.

  103. CG says:

    Mr. Vito is saying that I am “rooting for the GOP to lose.”

    As it relates to 2018, I disagree. I want the best candidate to win in each individual race. I am fairly agnostic about the overall picture, but at the least, the Kavanaugh saga has made me want to see Republicans beat Democrats in as many Senate races as possible (still cannot root for someone like Corey Stewart though)

    As for Trump in 2020, of course I want him to lose. Even better is if he doesn’t run. That doesn’t mean I want a Democrat to win either. Both things can be true.

    The point I have been making of course is that if someone like DeSantis who is so closely tied to Trump in such an important state winds up losing to a socialist Berniecrat with a ton of baggage in his own right, such a thing does not speak well toward DJT’s ability to win a second term.

    All sorts of people here now are denying that any “bad” poll for Republicans might be true. Everything gets re-weighted so people feel better. Maybe you will be right or maybe the polls showing GOP losses will be right.

    If the latter happens, and the GOP does lose a whole lot in the House, and if 2020 polls show Trump losing to various Democrats, I expect that his fans here will still claim that polls they do not like are “fake news.”

  104. Todd McCain says:

    If GOP can get to 54/55, they might be able to hold on for Trump’s whole presidency (I believe he gets re-elected).

  105. lisab says:

    actually the average midterm loss is about 31,

    so trump should be right about average

  106. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:34 pm
    Correction:
    “With all due respect to Nikki Haley, I would turn to someone who has been as far away from President DJT, WINNER of the 2016 Presidential Election, as possible.”

    – I love the fact NYCmike seems not to realize Trump, regardless of his real accomplishments, has turned off women voters in a way no other president has in the polling era. Republican are about to get smacked in the one place long considered their stronghold, the suburbs, and among voters who have always been with them, college educated women.

  107. Robbie says:

    Harbinger of Sorrows says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:38 pm
    Anyone still think these two aren’t rooting for the GOP to lose?

    – Not a chance worthless sack of crap who hides behind a fake name.

    I want to see Republicans hold both houses. I don’t want the hard work of 2010 and 2014 flushed away because of Trump.

    However, I’m not going to tell myself fairy tales about what is likely to happen.

  108. Tina says:

    New Jersey Senate: Bob Menendez (D-inc) 42% (+2) Bob Hugin (R) 40% National Research Inc. /@BobHugin (R) 10/6-9 washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/intern… #NJsen
    11:35 AM – 18 Oct 2018

  109. lisab says:

    and a 31 seat loss is probably a decent guess

    although, i am not arguing against DW, i am going with election projection’s 29

  110. CG says:

    Being as honest as possible, I cannot say I *want* Democrats to win the House, but a result that finishes with a Dem House and a GOP Senate for the next two years will not make me unhappy.

    It’s just about the judges right? Well, the GOP Senate ensures “we” get more judges.

    Let Trump and the House fight it out over the next two years on everything else. He and Pelosi (assuming she even gets the job) both suck.

  111. Tina says:

    I want trump to lose too in 2020

    Lifelong Republican.

    -Jebot

  112. Tina says:

    Hillary would not suck.

    Jebot

  113. Todd McCain says:

    I think the average GOPer would vote to keep the Senate over the House any day of the week.

  114. CG says:

    Oh, she would suck worse than Tina’s capacity for spelling, grammar, and logic.

  115. CG says:

    Fine, I guess I am still an “average GOPer” then. I can’t figure out how to change my GOP license plates after all these years…

  116. Tina says:

    Or your capacity for telling the truth, hoaxer.

  117. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:46 pm
    actually the average midterm loss is about 31,
    so trump should be right about average

    – This is my favorite pro-Trump talking point.

    Had Trump just done what he’s done over the last month or so, allowed the good news of the economy to speak for itself, there would be no danger of Democrats winning the House. None. They would probably gain seats, but not the amount needed for a majority.

    The country is not the same as it was for nearly five decades following the Great Depression and the FDR presidency.

  118. Tina says:

    Yeah, average gop.

    Do you have a bush 43 action figure and a jeb guac bowl?

    Btw, JEB is looking awfully plump these days.

  119. CG says:

    It is also true (at least for those who presume that the Mueller Report will not cause any severe damage), that Democrats winning Congress would be good for Trump’s 2020 efforts. A lot of people on his team probably want that. Democrats will have to share in the responsibility.

    I was pointing out the specific nature of the FL Gov race though as a proxy between Trump (the incumbent) and Sanders (about the ideologically most exploitable Democrat) and how it says very, very bad things about Trump’s potential to win reelection if Gillum beats DeSantis.

  120. gameboy says:

    #116 Menendez going down in Jersey is my sleeper pick of this election season. The $3 million the national Dem party is throwing towards that race is all you need to know. Kind of reminds me when all assumed Hillary was going to win PA in a cake walk in 2016…..yet Bill, Obama, and many others were camped in Philly on the eve of the election.

  121. Tina says:

    Prolly one of flubs consultant charged him $100000 for the recommendation to lose weight and wear glasses.

  122. CG says:

    I do have a talking Dubya Action Figure. I don’t eat Guac.

    And the guy who has put on the lbs over the past couple of years is Ted Cruz.

  123. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    October 18, 2018 at 2:54 pm
    Or your capacity for telling the truth, hoaxer.

    – Nothing funnier than Tinfoil complaining about hoaxes.

  124. Tina says:

    It would be nice, but no is fools gold.

    I rather ensure that Heller in nv wins. Nice guy and an effective campaigner,

    The trump rally seems to have helped him, as does the increase in net r registration in nv since 2016.

  125. Blobbie says:

    I want to see Republicans hold both houses just as much as I wanted Hillary to lose.

  126. Tina says:

    Papadope wore a wire.

    Brokered convention.

    Lifelong R with GOP plates, while pimping for Her Thighness.

    Hoaxing much?

  127. lisab says:

    the thing about math is it doesn’t lie

    the average loss for midterms has been about 31 seats

    and unless something really bad happens, trump should do approximately as well or poor as the presidents that followed marquis of queensbury rules

  128. Harbinger of Sorrows says:

    “Being as honest as possible, I cannot say I *want* Democrats to win the House, but a result that finishes with a Dem House and a GOP Senate for the next two years will not make me unhappy.”

    Anyone STILL think these two don’t want the GOP to lose?

  129. Tina says:

    The Toyota center is the scene of the Cruz trump rally.

    Seats 18000.

    Rally was moved due to increased demand.

  130. CG says:

    The “average totals” from history do not take into account that there are tremendously fewer districts drawn to be competitive than used to be the case.

    We pretty much know where the red parts of the country are and where the blue parts. In the past, with all these elections are included in the “average totals”, there was *far* more actually up for grabs.

  131. CG says:

    Trump is going to speak somewhere named after a Japanese car?

    What’s next, the Corona Coliseum?

  132. Tina says:

    That rally could be the largest rally of the midterm and it’s not a Presidential year.

  133. Tina says:

    8h
    ….In addition to stopping all payments to these countries, which seem to have almost no control over their population, I must, in the strongest of terms, ask Mexico to stop this onslaught – and if unable to do so I will call up the U.S. Military and CLOSE OUR SOUTHERN BORDER!..
    View details ·

    Oh please do, sending in caravans like this are acts of war and a health crisis.

  134. Tina says:

    19h
    Voter fraud is real: LA County Admits Number Of Registered Voters At 144% Of Resident Citizens Of Voting Age
    View details ·

    Nothing to see here. Just continue to process driver licenses for illegals and have motor voter at the dmv.

  135. jason says:

    Had Trump just done what he’s done over the last month or so, allowed the good news of the economy to speak for itself, there would be no danger of Democrats winning the House. None”

    LOL

    Amoral Scumbag is a dishonest, lying ass.

    That statement reeks of a rancid, putrid, hate filled mind.

    The fact is historically the party in power loses about 30 seats. That is a fact.

    No TDS will change that.

    Blame Trump if the losses are greater than 31.

    If they aren’t, GFY.

  136. jason says:

    The only reason Corey and Amoral Scumbag want the Dems to win the House is so they can impeach Trump.

    The fact that it would impede Trump’s conservative agenda is not important, they only see it as “good for Trump, bad for Trump”.

    F–k the country.

  137. Florida Guy says:

    The Vox poll is RVs and mostly online, with 15% mobile app.

    LOL LOL LOL

    Look, I used to live in Indiana. It is not only a +1 R state. Rs are organized there.

  138. lisab says:

    The fact that it would impede Trump’s conservative agenda is not important,
    —————–

    actually i think that is the exact thing they want

  139. CG says:

    Trump doesn’t have a conservative agenda. In many regards, he has a very anti-conservative agenda. Perhaps, jason, as I have expected, is now embracing Trump’s protectionist policies. The Senate can hopefully be a check on Trump’s big government instincts.

    The Federalist Society has a conservative agenda as it relates to judges, and that’s also where the Senate comes in.

    Impeachment would work to Trump’s benefit, minus public support, right? So that’s on the Democrats. You all should welcome it. The Senate won’t be able to convict unless public opinion favors it.

    Why does jason care anyway? He said he left the Republican Party. Why should he care if I am agnostic about who wins “the balance of power?”

  140. CG says:

    Stopping the worst of Trump is always about what is “best for the country” in my opinion. You can think otherwise, but it’s completely hypocritical to question me on that.

    What you should maybe be worried about is that Trump will move back towards his left-wing roots if the Democrats win the House, trying to “cut deals.”

    If so, will your loyalties be with Trump or conservatism. I expect you will find ways to excuse Trump.

  141. Tina says:

    Hillary has a conservative agenda.

    Jebot

  142. Tina says:

    The Az absentee ballots still look good, per Ls

  143. Tina says:

    The AZ Data Guru
    @Garrett_Archer
    Follow
    .@SecretaryReagan Early Ballot Update for 10/18. 204k ballots now in. Parties: GOP 45.3, DEM 31.9, OTH 22.3 (GOP +13.4). Female estimate now 47.1, median age down 1 to 58, average age down to 57.3. arizona.vote/early-ballot-s…
    11:51 AM – 18 Oct 2018

  144. lisab says:

    According to a Pew Research Center survey, the percentage of Democrats saying they sympathize more with Israel than the Palestinians has declined from 38 percent in 2001 to 27 percent in 2018 — the lowest level of support on record. Support for Israel further decreased among self-identified “liberal” Democrats from 48 percent in 2001 to 19 percent in 2018. In the same time period, their support for Palestinians rose from 18 percent to 35 percent.

  145. Tina says:

    News
    @FoxNews
    6h
    Treasury employee charged with leaking financial info on Trump team was arrested with flash drive in hand, prosecutors say fxn.ws/2J2TIf6 pic.twitter.com/JbrwAoVwFP
    View photo ·

    Notice, how the corrupt Fib and Doj blacked out the name of the persons boss, the co-conspirator.

  146. CG says:

    Beyond “confirming conservative judges” which is completely the purview of the Senate, what is one actual good part of the “Trump Agenda” that is on the line in regards to whom controls the House?

    If they are at loggerheads, neither one will get what they want done. Maybe that is actually a good thing, if you like the status quo now.

    Otherwise, what else is there that he might realistically pass with a Republican House that he cannot pass with a Democrat House? I really cannot see much difference.

    If he stands on principle, he can veto whatever they pass, even if it somehow gets through a Republican Senate, which would also be next to impossible.

    Frankly, which party controls the U.S. House does not really seem all that important policy-wise. Yes, the Senate is more important at the present, and if Democrats do not get that, they still don’t have too much to be happy about. The only thing that should really concern conservatives is if as mentioned, Trump moves to the left to cut deals with them. If so, that’s on him and the people who have supported him.

  147. CG says:

    Even jason concedes, “The Wall” is not being built, regardless of which party controls Congress.

    From what I can tell, Democrats are going to be more willing to actually fight him on tariffs and things that conservatives know will hurt the economy. Not because they don’t believe in them, but because Trump supports them.

    It really isn’t about D vs R anymore ideologically, it’s about Trump vs non-Trump.

    So to me, it makes sense to concern myself with the Senate which can produce about the only positive thing I believe can come (judges, as long as he keeps his word)from the Trump years. The House, as a whole, is largely irrelevant as long as he is President.

    I will be “rooting” very hard though for Peter Roskam, Randy Hultgren, and for many other Republican candidates and House incumbents such as Carlos Curbelo, Will Hurd, and Mia Love.

    And I will be “rooting” against horrific representatives of the Republican Party and Congress itself such as Dana Rohrabacher and Steve King.

  148. janz says:

    I remain surprised by Gillum’s numbers in FL. He seems like such an awful candidate, with negative baggage to boot, that it’s seems inconceivable that DeSantis would be behind so much — 8 pts in the poll posted earlier!!

  149. lisab says:

    Every student in Australia comes out as gay, after learning it will get them out of school

  150. lisab says:

    China stocks plunge amid heavy selling in the energy sector and growing worries about the economy
    Chinese stocks fell sharply on Thursday as heavy selling in the energy sector and worries about the levels of borrowing in the stock market added to broader concerns over growth and the global sell-off in equities.

    The Shanghai Composite index closed down 2.9 percent at 2,486.42, after hitting its lowest point since November 2014 on Thursday morning.

  151. DW says:

    So far two votes counted in Siena’s redo of VA_02. And they are both for Scott Taylor’s democrat opponent. The percentage is 100% to 0%. Had Taylor gotten the first two votes it probably would have said 87% to 13% for Taylor.

  152. mnw says:

    Corr-eeetroll

    How’s “really strong challenger” Brendan Kelly (D) doing in IL-12?

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

    This is what happens when trollblog boy holds forth on matters of which he knows nothing whatsoever.

  153. dblaikie says:

    Knowing how badly the media wants to defeat Trump there is no way I am going to trust any poll in the next 10 days. In the last week there will at least be an effort on these polling groups to protect any credibility they have left. Never, ever, trust any poll in this time period that isn’t likely voters. If it isn’t they are hiding something!

    But more importantly you need to have the power of mind to throw out and ignore polls that don’t pass the smell test. For instance if a poll came showing that Cox was ahead in California, I would want to believe it, I would want to post a great big boom! But that would be stupid. It doesn’t pass the smell test. Needs to be ignored.

    Which brings us to these polls that say Blackburn is behind or Gillum is ahead by 10 points. This time I want to thrown them out. And the good news is I can. Why? Because they don’t pass the smell test.

  154. CG says:

    I don’t see a link.

    I said long ago that Bost would be favored to keep his seat.

    mnw was very confused though on the district when he said that Bost was a universally beloved figure with no controversy associated with him and that the Dem nominee was a “nobody” as compared to their 2016 candidate.

    I was able to quickly show that Bost’s opponent this time has raised tons more money than the opponent last time and that the DCCC has very much been involved in this race.

    Bost will probably win but it will be fairly close.

  155. CG says:

    Saying that Republicans will *gain* U.S. House seats this cycle does not pass the smell test.

    It’s about as likely as Cox beating Newsome.

  156. NYCmike says:

    ” I can’t figure out how to change my GOP license plates after all these years…”

    -Seriously? That is SAD!

  157. CG says:

    I’ve looked into it. I cannot find an answer on the Secretary of State’s website and I am not about to wait an hour on hold for a phone call. I also do not want to have to spend hundreds of dollars to replace vanity license plates.

  158. Tina says:

    Db, ignore the polls. I am looking at early voting numbers and party registrations.

    Ignore the Jebots especially. “Lifelong Rs with Gop license plates.”

    LOL

  159. DW says:

    It was just a little over two weeks ago Siena finished polling VA_02, and since then we got a confirmatory poll with the same margin from Christopher Newport, a very credible pollster who only polls in VA.

    But that’s not good enough for Siena, they have to ignore really interesting seats and poll VA_02 again.

  160. Tina says:

    My car has Hillary 2016 and Hillary 2020 bumper stickers everywhere.

    -Jebot

  161. mnw says:

    163 core-ee is a lying lil piece of zh*t.

    Trollblogboy doesn’t even have the guts to LOOK AT “the strong challenger” he has touted as fn SUPERMAN for months. Here is corre-eee’s “strong challenger” in his full glory:

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

  162. Tina says:

    Sorry, for all the trolling. I am especially happy this week that Warren derailed herself. This sets the stage for Hillary.

    -Jebot

  163. CG says:

    Everything I have said on the Bost/Kelly race has been quite clear.

    Which is pretty much nothing other than Democrats are making a much stronger effort to unseat Bost this year as compared to 2016 and it is among the couple dozen top battleground races for the U.S. House.

    mnw/strawdog seems to get confused between what is in Illinois and what is in Missouri. It’s a bit concerning.

    Go ahead though, let’s take a gander on what the vote percentage will wind up being in that district and we can see who gets closer…

  164. lisab says:

    I cannot find an answer on the Secretary of State’s website and I am not about to wait an hour on hold for a phone call. I also do not want to have to spend hundreds of dollars to replace vanity license plates.
    ———————-

    it only took me two minutes to google it

  165. CG says:

    I assume if you are being honest, you will help me out then..

  166. lisab says:

    i assume you have access to google

  167. CG says:

    Yeah, but I suspect you are being dishonest, or perhaps just do not understand what it is that I actually need information about.

    It should be a piece of cake for you to provide a link if you think you have the information.

  168. CG says:

    For example, I am not looking to replace existing plates with the same number nor am I looking to transfer plates from one vehicle to another.

    And that is where the information provided by Mr. Jesse White (Secretary of State for Life) is lacking, in spite of all his Tumbling legend.

  169. dblaikie says:

    CG I never said it did. By the way, I changed my forecast. I am not going to repost my post. But after looking at the reality of the situation with the many open seats and PA redistricting I saw the light. My number is now -5 for the GOP.

    By the way, I don’t mind you disagreeing with my posts. But why the anger CG? What did I ever do to you? Perhaps you were one of those way back in 2016 who joined in MD’s constant attacks on me for daring to say that Trump was going to win and that he wasn’t the high and mighty lord of HHR.

  170. CG says:

    No anger towards you at all db. Have never called you a name or anything like that. Just expressing a disagreement. I will note you have changed your position.

    A couple of days ago, I asked you a religion-based question, and thanked you and complimented the way you answered it.

  171. Tina says:

    More Enema!

    Ryan Saavedra
    @RealSaavedra
    Follow
    Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema refuses to say that she regrets saying it’s OK for Americans to join the Taliban pic.twitter.com/uV0P5mbEyA
    1:57 PM – 18 Oct 2018

    Twitter
    By: RNC Research @RNCResearch

  172. VictrC says:

    Hello and happy Thursday evening

    Currently RCP has it 206D 198R and 31 Toss up. If you go to each race and look at every poll you will find the following Leading:

    R: 18
    D: 7
    T: 6 (tie or no polling)

    Adjusting to say that this will hold leaves us at 216R 213D and 6 races deciding the House. The Republicans only need to win 2 of those races to retain the House, the Democrats have to win 5 of those races to take the House.

    That is how close it is These reports of 30+ seats going to the Dems just are not supported by the current polling, as bad as the media makes it out to be.

    If Republicans and Conservatives don’t take the misinformation bait and stay at home discouraged, the R’s can hold the House.

  173. Mr.Vito says:

    I’ll just stick this here…

    https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1053023848772378625

    by Black Americans for the President’s Agenda

  174. lisab says:

    perhaps just do not understand what it is that I actually need information about.
    ————

    well you said you wanted to get rid of your current plates and get different plates

    two minutes on google

  175. CG says:

    Maybe for your state…

  176. dblaikie says:

    CG I believe that part of being strong as a person is the ability to say you are wrong. I am sorry for my last post. Don’t know why in the world I brought up MD of all people! It has been one of those days.

  177. lisab says:

    illinois

  178. CG says:

    No problem, db.

    And I am frustrated by a work matter today myself.

  179. mnw says:

    core-eeetroll

    You don’t know zh*t about EITHER MO OR IL– & “that’s a bit concerning” too, trollblogboy.

    You typed all your krap about Kelly without knowing what every atty in the district knows–that he’s a weak little nothingball of a prosecutor, & the ad I posted above TWICE proves it, to everyone but YOU.

    That “probation only” deal Kelly cut with the recidivist child molester?– corree-eeetroll is afraid to view it, or comment on it if he did, & blithely asserts THAT little problem “has no connection” to the election! Got kids, corn-eee? If you did, maybe you could understand “the connection.”

    He’s a troll. He’s a coward, & he’s God’s own fool.

  180. CG says:

    You are saying things, that whether true or not, are irrelevant to the fact that the DCCC has invested in Kelly and that Kelly has raised *far* more money than Bost’s 2016 opponent, when you stated the opposite. If there are developments in the race you think are relevant, then by all means, discuss them, but you had your facts wrong months ago and I did not.

    You said the district was 80% rural or something like that, when that is definitely not the case. There are pockets of urban Democrats in the district. Before Bost, it was held for many terms by Democrats.

    I don’t know why this bothers you so much. People get confused from time to time, as you did regarding this district. Just man up and move on.

  181. CG says:

    I don’t have access to YouTube here so I have been unable to view links.

    If there is some development in IL 12 regarding Kelly, then I assume Bost will try to use it to his advantage. That’s politics. Right now, I think Bost probably wins by 4-5 points.

    How many points do you think, mnw?

  182. wheelz91 says:

    Corey: Changing your plates is not that difficult. 1) Get into your car. 2) Drive to your nearest driver’s license facility. 3) Go inside and tell them what you want to do.
    Presto: Problem solved!!!!

  183. mnw says:

    correct-eee coward

    WHAT ABOUT THE AD? I linked to it TWICE. Are you afraid to comment on it, because it hurts too much?

    All the confusion was on your part, troll. You confused your 5 minutes of internet research with ACTUALLY KNOWING something about your precious “very strong challenger” Brendan Kelly.

    Grow a pair & say something about the “child molester probation deal.” Anything at all?

  184. mnw says:

    Long lines in MT cold, since 6am today.

    Cruz rally moved to bigger venue.

  185. Mr.Vito says:

    That’s what 182 is.

    Maybe its a new Kanye song…

  186. lisab says:

    mr vito,

    oh, did not realize that

    if the dems lose even a small percentage of african americans, the math becomes difficult for them

  187. NYCmike says:

    Did anyone see the clip of Kamala Harris on The Ellen Show, where she starts laughing hysterically at her own joke?

    Talk about cackling!

  188. NYCmike says:

    Double

  189. ReadyFirst says:

    182. Turnabout’s fair play.

  190. RB says:

    Robbie what do you think will happen in KY06
    Will be an early tell on the house

  191. ReadyFirst says:

    Extended early voting, but no fax or email ballots…
    “The eight counties, which have been a solid voting bloc for Republicans in state races, included 223,175 registered voters as of the August primaries. Roughly 43 percent of the voters were registered as Republicans, while 40 percent were Democrats and 17 percent were independents or registered with third parties.”
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278095-voting-post-michael

  192. mnw says:

    RB 202

    Wobbles is a troll, pure & simple, who said on election day 2016 that, “It looks like Hillary may carry MO too!” (Trump won MO by 18 points)

    Out of curiosity, why do you look to Wobbles, of all posters for this info? I believe he had HRC winning 380 electoral votes, or thereabouts.

  193. RB says:

    Mnw-i think he lives in KY…would have a better sense tban me living in NJ

    Would love the ‘Thanks for playing Amy’ tweet from Mitch

  194. Bitterlaw says:

    MD was a Titan of HHR. He was never the High and Mighty Lord of HHR. He was too short for that.

  195. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena has once again slapped a disclaimer on their Fl-27 poll, stating that it is too weighted to be reliable.

    If you look at the results closely, it appears they are bothered by finding too many white men, and Shalala is leading with men even more than with women.

    So DW, it may be right that Siena is somewhat compromising their polls by broadcasting for the campaigns that they are being polled.

    Siena even has on all their polls: “People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.”

    Food for thought.

  196. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, DW, the reason there is all the interest in Taylor’s CD is that, in addition to being in VA where many expect to see the signs of a wave if on exists, but because it is the median Cook PVI district for the nation.

  197. RB says:

    Mr. Vito

    A. Booth is waiting on those Paladin Polls

  198. Phil says:

    Yeah, the more you watch these Siena polls as they are being conducted the more skeptical you get. On the other hand their Texas poll seemed to line up with all the other Tx polls. A broken clock?

  199. Mr.Vito says:

    Phil, a statewide poll would be a little less susceptible to that particular bias, if it exists, because of the sheer size of the population you are drawing from.

  200. Mr.Vito says:

    “A. Booth is waiting on those Paladin Polls”

    He didn’t make it on Broadway?

  201. MichiganGuy says:

    Texas #12
    .
    Granger (R) 62
    Adia (D) 30
    .
    PPP Poll
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181017_TX_12.pdf

  202. mnw says:

    MG

    James campaign says Trump is coming to MI.

    I doubt Trump would go there if he thought it was a complete waste of time & resources.

  203. Cash Cow TM says:

    So…I have been working ALL DAY on this!

    Trump slogans…

    Lock her up
    build the wall
    drain the swamp

    All are just 3 words.
    All words are one syllable ones.
    *******************************
    The letters in “build the wall” include the letters that spell “D-E-A-T-H”

    Same for “drain the swamp” … D-E-A-T-H
    ______________
    I thought I was onto something big,
    but for “lock her up” you cannot find the letters to spell death.But you can spell

    “pluck hero”
    or
    “plucker ho”
    or
    “ho plucker”
    or
    “o pluck her”
    *********************************
    Another day wasted….

  204. Cash Cow TM says:

    “MichiganGuy says:
    October 18, 2018 at 9:28 pm
    Texas #12
    .
    Granger (R) 62
    Adia (D) 30
    .
    PPP Poll
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20181017_TX_12.pdf
    **********************
    So I suppose most of the polsters have this as a tossup?

  205. MichiganGuy says:

    Utah #01
    .
    Bishop (R) 52
    Castillo (D) 20
    .
    #03
    .
    Curtis (R) 67
    Singer (D) 13
    .
    UUtah poll
    https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/17/republican-reps-bishop/

  206. Mr.Vito says:

    JOURNALISM AS USUAL: NYT Accuses Kushner Of Brutal Callousness, Retracts The Accusation, Issues No Correction

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/37327/journalism-usual-nyt-accuses-kushner-brutal-ben-shapiro

  207. MichiganGuy says:

    #214 mnw, James is not going to win. I don’t know what Trump is thinking but, we have a better shot of Hugin winning in New Jersey. LOL

  208. NYCmike says:

    MG,

    Since Trump won Michigan, it would make sense for Trump to go there. New Jersey is not Trump-friendly, I am sure Hugin would tell him “STAY AWAY!”.

    Besides, if Trump can make the Democrats start thinking that there is movement in MI, that takes their eyes off of a different prize.

    Rally in MI costs very little, while the return on investment could be YUGE!

  209. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida #15
    .
    Ross Spano (R) 45%
    Kristen Carlson (D) 45%
    .
    SurveyUSA Poll
    .
    http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=db034a88-6665-4a19-acde-057b71069b31

  210. MichiganGuy says:

    Mike, I know he is unpopular in New Jersey. I was just trying to illustrate that James has little chance of winning in Michigan. I don’t think Trump will be fooling the dems because, he is going to Michigan.

  211. Tina says:

    Well tump is also going to Houston,Max for Cruz.

    Cruz has this.

    An argument can be made that it’s wasted resources too.

    But maybe not? Trump only won Texas by 9.

  212. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    1h
    Just to recap absentee/early voting #s: We’ve looked at AZ, FL (both statewide & 4 key counties), IA (statewide & 2 key counties), NC, & OH (2 key counties) That’s 12 data points. In EVERY SINGLE ONE Republicans are performing better than previous elections & Democrats worse

    Fwiw.

  213. Mr.Vito says:

    Trump will be going to Michigan for James, but also for Bishop, and the open MI-11 seat. I’m sure the GOP would like to raise James profile and do some outreach to the black community.

  214. Tina says:

    Rallies tomorrow in Mesa, Az and then in Nv on Saturday.

    Houston rally, Monday.

  215. Mr.Vito says:

    Greg Abbott
    ?Verified account @GregAbbott_TX

    A complaint says the Texas Democratic Party asked noncitizens to register to vote, sending applications with citizenship box pre-checked. This is being investigated. If true there will be serious consequences. #txlege #tcot #PJNET

  216. mnw says:

    Tina 225

    I follow him like a hawk. His analysis seems persuasive.

  217. Tina says:

    @RealSaavedra
    6m
    Trump on Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test: “The one good thing about her test…I can’t call her ‘Pocahontas’ anymore” because she has no Native American ancestry. pic.twitter.com/RyAtWeZkyi

  218. Bitterlaw says:

    If the Democrats take the House, would a Republican controlled Senate serve as a check on the Demorats in the House or on Trump in the White House?

  219. mnw says:

    AZ SEN:

    NYT/Siena:

    McSally 48
    Sinema 45

    (with 60% completed)

  220. jason says:

    it will be interesting to hear the spin here about how Trump himself would still be able to win Florida in 2020.”

    I remember your spin here about how Trump would lose Florida in 2016.

  221. mnw says:

    Perhaps Sinema’s Taliban comment has legs?

    The Arizona Republic today (surprisingly, & to its credit) pressed her very hard on her Taliban comment, & 3 TIMES IN A ROW she refused to say she regretted it.

    She looked like a genuine desert weasel ducking the question.

  222. Tina says:

    Enema is done.

    Just look at the ev numbers in Az.

  223. Tina says:

    @_ImperatorRex_
    Follow
    File this under ‘The Modern Left, 2018’. OK, here goes: ‘Black woman claims the Cherokee Indians are ‘racist’ for condemning a white woman, Elizabeth Warren @elizabethforma , for falsely claiming to be a Cherokee Indian.’ These people are insane, but you knew that, right? ? twitter.com/newsbusters/st…
    8:28 PM – 18 Oct 2018

  224. Mr.Vito says:

    If she were a Republican, the press would Akinize her. Every Republican would have to denounce her, and they would still try to tie them to her afterward.

  225. Tina says:

    Tomorrow, ugly Ohr testifies before the house committee.

  226. Tina says:

    Monday’strump- Cruz rally should be crazy.

    19000?

  227. mnw says:

    Tina 240*

    Kick out the jams!

    He was en fuego in MT 2nite. Hit Tester on illegal alien caravan AND 2A: “How can a senator from Montana get a ‘D’ rating from the NRA?”

    * Little Texas, “I been sent to spread the message…God bless Texas!”

  228. mnw says:

    Wes

    Saw that at RRH.

    Menendez; Ellison; Carper; “Stolen Honor” Blumenthal; Sherrod. Whole lotta Coney Island whitefish there.

  229. Victrc says:

    Wes

    You know as well as anyone that this will go nowhere. It’s a dem and they will say oh it’s too old and he stopped so it’s not the same as Kavanaugh, blah blah blah

    All animals are equal, but some are more equal.

  230. Tina says:

    Trump does seem to want to take out Tester for his personal attacks on the Admiral Doctor to 3 Presidents.

    REX retweeted
    Donald J. Trump Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    40m
    Jon Tester says one thing to voters and does the EXACT OPPOSITE in Washington. Tester takes his orders form Pelosi & Schumer. Tester wants to raise your taxes, take away your 2A, open your borders, and deliver MOB RULE. Retire Tester & Elect America-First Patriot Matt Rosendale!

  231. Mr.Vito says:

    New York Post
    ?Verified account @nypost

    Ocasio-Cortez isn’t endorsing Bernie Sanders’ 2020 bid https://nyp.st/2yLOEHb

  232. Tina says:

    Mnw.

    Drats produce mobs.

    Republicans produce jobs.

    4.2 million since 1/17

    330000 manufacturing jobs vs 34000 for Zero.

  233. mnw says:

    Tina

    Ahhh! Good stuff!

    Trump did some cute stage business with Gianforte too.

  234. Mr.Vito says:

    Wes will be happy to know that, currently, in the Siena poll, Herrera-Beutler is leading with Women, Men, Whites, Nonwhites, and every age group.

  235. Tina says:

    Within 2 weeks, Trump has taken out Porn Lawyer and Pocahantas.

    Two drat contenders for 2020 destroyed.

  236. Wes says:

    Vic, that’s now two allegations against Brown. He’s skated by on the other for decades because his ex-wife—without denying her allegations—claims Republicans are wrong to bring up their past.

    This is a completely different animal and plays directly into what the #MeToo movement is all about. If Renacci and the NRSC can pound this home, it may be enough to finally rid Ohio of the political cancer known as Sherrod Brown.

  237. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is finished with three at-risk seats:

    TX-23 (R+15)
    Hurd 53
    Ortiz Jones 38

    WV-03 (R+5)
    Miller 46
    Ojeda 41

    ME-02 (EVEN)
    Poliquin 41
    Golden 41

  238. Victrc says:

    Wes

    I hope you’re right. I went to school at Columbia with his son and Nadler from NY son. Both were weasels of the first rate kind.

  239. mnw says:

    I think to hurt Sherrod, the accuser would have to give up her anonymity.

  240. ReadyFirst says:

    I’ll take the candidates with actual votes-
    “among those who say they have already voted, DeSantis is at 49 percent, while Gillum is at 45 percent.
    A similar scenario is set up for Florida’s U.S. Senate race — heading into the stretch in dead-heat fashion, according to the new survey by St. Pete Polls. Republican Gov. Rick Scott has a two-point lead over Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.”
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/277928-poll-post-michael-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-deadlocked-rick-scott-narrowly-leads-bill-nelson

  241. ReadyFirst says:

    *more actual votes.

  242. MichiganGuy says:

    JMC Analytics and Polling’s 10/18 US House scorecard
    .
    As of this week they have Democrats gaining 17 seats plus 28 tossups on the Republican side and only 1 tossup on the democrat side.
    .
    https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8538

  243. MichiganGuy says:

    Ok, it looks like they are saying Dems gaining 21.
    “If this sample of 69 were extrapolated to the entire population of 153 seats on JMC’s “watch list”, that would suggest a net Republican loss (now that Democrats are trailing in a race in Minnesota) of 21 seats (23 last week), with 58 additional Republican seats too close to call (was 58 Republican, 4 Democrats last week).”

  244. JeffP says:

    There are zero signs of a blue wave in any of the absentee ballot returns in Florida or Arizona…as well as other key counties in Ohio and NC. In fact it looks like the GOP base is engaged in this election and in some states we will see some blowout Senate results and a couple surprises.

  245. JeffP says:

    DW>Nate538

  246. Todd McCain says:

    GOP again increased their mail ballot lead yesterday by another 3000 votes in Florida. They lead 46K now. In 2016 at the end, they lead mail in my 60K, this is pretty impressive so far.

  247. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Todd
    Look at the AZ early ballot results especially those from Maricopa County. WHOA in favor of the GOP!!

    http://www.arizona.vote/early-ballot-statistics

  248. Todd McCain says:

    Sheep,

    Impressive. Perhaps this is 2016 all over again? We’ll see when the EV really begins in earnest next week.

  249. DW says:

    Toss the Siena FL_27 poll. It says right in their internals they were trying to get 74% nonwhite but could only get 63%, and they were trying to get 35% 65 and older but could only get 30%. This along with the gender problem mentioned above.

    I will stick with Mason-Dixon, who has been polling Florida for many years. Oh and they say its R+2

  250. JeffP says:

    De Blasio, Cuomo greeted with boos at Al Smith dinner nyp.st/2yISyAA

  251. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #266
    Thanks for the overview of Congressional races in the four “A” States.
    My only beef is that you have Don Young(R-AK)as a Lean R. Every cycle, Mr. Young is allegedly in danger of losing, but prevails by double digits.
    This year, the Republican at the top of the ticket for the Governor’s race is romping in the polls.
    Please consider changing your ranking to Likely R.

  252. Todd McCain says:

    Last 3 polls of FOX, RAS and Economist have average approval for Trump at 47%. This is certainly respectable for a midterm and to be re-elected.

  253. mnw says:

    266

    trollblog alert!

    Brendan Kelly is 10-feet tall! Your weapons are USELESS against this “really strong challenger”!

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

  254. Tgca says:

    Dos cientos y setenta y uno

  255. mnw says:

    Tg

    hola

    Everything good, hopefully? Get some winter clothes yet?

  256. DW says:

    Siena has managed to become the center of polling this year due to being hired on by the NY Times in their election year gimmick, “Live Polling.” Observers have noted that Silver’s 538 page literally bounces up and down as the votes come in to Siena’s “live” results.

    I have become increasingly critical of Siena, given that they could be tainting the results by advertising a few days in advance where they will be polling.

    I have also pointed out that historically, they have limited their work to New York State. Should we be confident in a firm that goes from one state, with knowledge of house districts in that state, to suddenly being masters of all states?

    But what about their actual track record?

    (polling and results shown in order of R/D)

    2014

    NY_01

    Siena: 50/45 – R+5
    Actual: 53/45 – R+8

    NY_04

    Siena: 42/52 – D+10
    Actual: 46/51 – D+5

    NY_11

    Siena: 53/34 – R+19
    Actual: 53/41 – R+12

    NY_18

    Siena: 44/49 – D+5 (just two weeks earlier they said it was 51/41)
    Actual: 46/48 – D+2

    NY_19

    Siena: 58/35 – R+23
    Actual: 62/34 – R+28

    NY_21

    Siena: 50/32 – R+18
    Actual: 53/34 – R+19

    NY_24

    Siena: 52/42 – R+10 (just 1 month earlier 42/50)
    Actual: 58/39 – R+19

    2016

    NY_01

    Siena: 57/36 – R+11
    Actual: 55/40 – R+15

    NY_19

    Siena: 48/42 – R+6
    Actual: 51/43 – R+8

    NY_22

    Siena: 38/34 – R+4
    Actual: 44/39 – R+5

    NY_24

    Siena: 54/31 – R+23
    Actual: 58/38 – R+20

    Ignoring the blow-out races where the margins are not consequential, and looking at the ones considered in play, there were seven total between 2014 and 2016.

    In ALL seven, Siena’s poll was more favorable to the Democrat than the actual results showed. It is no wonder Silver at 538 gives them an A rating for a performance like that. Now granted, that is ‘only’ seven polls, and a few of them only favored the Democrat slightly, but still there does seem to be a D-tilt to them. And again, this is just in New York. Now they have gone national, and nobody knows how accurate they are in places where they have never before polled.

    And just for kicks, here is there performance, once again, in the NY 2018 primaries:

    2018 Primaries:

    GOP – NY_11

    Grimm 47 – Grimm +10
    Donovan 37

    Actual:

    Grimm 37
    Donovan 63 – Donovan +26

    Dem – NY_24

    Perez Williams 45 – Perez Williams +13
    Balter 32

    Actual:

    Perez Williams 38
    Balter 62 – Balter +24

  257. Todd McCain says:

    The FL ballot percentages are mirroring 2014 for the GOP so far: 44% to 38%.

  258. mnw says:

    Larry Schwenkart makes some points about NYT/Siena polls which are similar to DW’s.

    RAS today: 47/52.

  259. mnw says:

    275 sb “Schweikart”

  260. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    No they are not. Which is what I’ve been trying to tell you.

    Republicans are definitely running behind 2014 Florida vote by mail and Democrats are running ahead. This has been true for the last 3 days.

    Republicans are now at 44% while Democrats are now at 40.2%.

    These are not good numbers and why people keep presenting these numbers as good news is beyond me.

  261. jason says:

    So basically Corey wants Nancy Pelosi to be speaker of the House instead of Jim Jordan.

    That’s real “conservative” of him.

  262. Todd McCain says:

    Skippy, I don’t think you can read correctly. In 2014, the percentage was 44-37, they are currently at 44-38.

    In 2016, it was 40-38 and yet they still won statewide.

  263. Todd McCain says:

    GOP gained another 3000 votes from yesterday.

  264. DW says:

    278 – he said he would not be unhappy. Take out the double-negatives and he is saying he would be happy with Pelosi as speaker. Anyone happy with Pelosi is no Republican, much less conservative.

  265. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    You can’t compare 2018 numbers to 2016. You need to compare the 2018 numbers to 2014 numbers.

    Where are you getting this 38% number for the Dems?

  266. mnw says:

    Skippy is our very own HHR Baghdad Bob.

  267. Todd McCain says:

    I just did compare 2018 and 2014; I am getting the numbers right from the Early Balloting early on the SOS Florida site. The numbers don’t lie. Even if they were at 44-40, that still isn’t bad; they won statewide at 40-38 in 2016.

  268. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    My bad. Just checked the updated numbers and it is Dems 38.1%.

    My apologies.

  269. mnw says:

    Baghdad Bob says, “All your Florida bewrong to us!”

  270. DW says:

    MI_11 – R-Internal

    Stevens (D) 48%
    Epstein (R) 48%

    MI_08 – R-Internal

    Bishop (R) 48
    Slotkin (D) 45

    Both done by Target Insyght.

  271. Todd McCain says:

    And if you round the percentages so far are exact to 2014 at 44-38. Now maybe that changes, but so far this is looking like 2014 in Florida for mail in ballots, in which Scott won by about 70K.

  272. Todd McCain says:

    Feel pretty good about flipping ND, MO and FL.

  273. DW says:

    Credit to skippy for apologizing. We have all been wrong here at one time or another.

  274. hugh says:

    i did the math and it is currently at 44 to 38.

  275. DW says:

    whoops…I just made a mistake, those MI polls apparently were not campaign internals.

  276. Todd McCain says:

    That is great news then!

  277. DW says:

    See here is why I HATE making mistakes. I wrongly post above that these were campaign internals, and then mnw goes and posts this at RRH:

    strawdog
    October 19, 2018 at 10:29 am | In reply to TheWizardOf144
    Internals for GOP, though.
    I hear Trump is coming to MI, however. Something must be going on there.

    71, M, R, MO-3

  278. DW says:

    I grabbed those polls from this:

    New polls from Target Insyght for @MIRSnews:#MI11:@LenaEpstein 48%@HaleyLive 48%#MI08:@MikeBishopMI 48%@ElissaSlotkin 45%

    and zeroed in on ‘for’ and then jumped ahead to LenaEpstein, but it clearly says for MIRSnews.

    538 lists the polls as NOT campaign internals.

  279. jason says:

    I would apologize too if I was ever wrong.

  280. DW says:

    I am updating my house outlook to remove MI_08 from the list of those I am unsure about. Bishop has led every poll but one D-Internal. The race is close, but Bishop seems to be clinging to an edge that doesn’t budge.

    For now I am leaving MI_11 in the list of seats I have flipping from R to D. But if there is any more polling to warrant pulling that back, I will.

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, TX_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  281. jason says:

    Yesterday Corey said Trump was not pursuing a conservative agenda, a blatant.

    The only thing not conservative is his AFL-CIO trade agenda. His foreign policy does have some isolationist aspects, but not entirely.

    On deregulation, energy policy, rebuilding the military, climate change, education, judicial appointments, taxes, etc. it is a conservative agenda.

    And electing Pelosi speaker will turn the Congress into 2 years of stalemate and investigations.

  282. DW says:

    298 – bingo. Even if someone views Trump as a problem, the solution isn’t to make Pelosi speaker.

    If you think your right foot is diseased, the solution isn’t to pull out your pistol and shoot your left foot.

  283. DW says:

    538 was unmoved by Target Insyght’s polls from MI. Their hearing has been reduced to only sounds made by NY Times/Siena.

  284. DW says:

    Someone posted this at RRH:

    VBM returns are exceptional for Republicans right now. If this were election day, I don’t think any Republican district would flip. That’s right. Zero. Not even CA-49. And the GOP might pick up a seat or two. Obviously that goes against what we’ve seen this cycle elsewhere, so it’s tough to believe that’ll be the case. But these are actual ballots returned, the things that count, and so far Republican return rates in competitive districts are 4.6% of Republican ballots mailed, while Democrats are 3.4% of Democratic ballots mailed. Considering that more Republican ballots are mailed in most of these districts, Democrats need a better rate of return, not one that’s so far below the GOP.

  285. Todd McCain says:

    Want to see a MT Sen poll.

  286. Todd McCain says:

    301. Might be a little too starry eyed, but the trend line so far is definitely positive.

  287. sandiegocitizen says:

    301. I have said it before and I will say it again, it is possible the Republicans will hold California’s 49th district.

  288. mnw says:

    Todd

    U & me both.

    Trump REALLY put the wood to Tester yesterday. Wow. 2A stuff must’ve left a mark.

  289. Todd McCain says:

    Trump in AZ today and then going back to Nevada, then Texas, then Wisconsin.

  290. mnw says:

    The AZ timing is perfect.

    I’d like to have his frequent flyer miles.

  291. Mr.Vito says:

    Fox News Research
    ?Verified account @FoxNewsResearch
    24h24 hours ago

    10 Most Expensive Senate Races:
    ? Outside Spending
    •MO: $55.7M*
    •FL: $43.1M*
    •NV: $41.9M**
    •IN: $39.7M*
    •AZ: $39.7M***
    •TN: $28.0M***
    •WV: $27.8M*
    •MT: $25.4M*
    •WI: $24.2M*
    •ND: $13.0M*

    *Dem incumbent
    **GOP incumbent
    ***Open due to GOP retirement

    (Via @OpenSecretsDC)

  292. Mr.Vito says:

    Warren disaster confirmed. Called out by ThinkProgress

    ThinkProgress
    ?Verified account @thinkprogress

    “It’s important that non-Native people walk away from this mess with the correct conclusion that Native people are the authority on who is and who isn’t Native.”

  293. DW says:

    “It’s important that non-Native people walk away from this mess with the correct conclusion that Native people are the authority on who is and who isn’t Native.”

    Well, native people may well be an authority, but in the case of Warren, they are greatly helped by the laws of mathematics, and what it means to be 1/1064th.

  294. DW says:

    PPP-D has gone strangely silent. I wonder why? Normally this is the time of year they start to get more honest as they put out their polls of record, the ones that will get them their grade at 538.

  295. Mr.Vito says:

    312 Except we saw in 2016 that a 2 point popular lead for the Dem means Trump wins.

  296. MichiganGuy says:

    NT