Warren Leads Trump By 2% in 2020

Rasmussen Reports has put out a new poll that shows Elizabeth Warren ahead of Donald Trump by two percentage points in a potential 2020 General Election match up.

Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%

This poll was done October 17-18 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 11:19 am
Filed under: General | Comments (168)

168 Responses to “Warren Leads Trump By 2% in 2020”

  1. sandiegocitizen says:


  2. Victrc says:


    And yes, please let this be the matchup in 2020.

  3. MichiganGuy says:

    This Joe Donnelly (@JoeforIndiana @SenDonnelly) ad is almost a shot-for-shot frame-by-frame steal from Jonah Ryan’s ad on the show @VeepHBO. Even the ad names are almost the same: “Axe” vs “Chopping.” You can’t make this stuff up.
    Say It Ain’t So, Joe. LOL

  4. Phil says:

    Yep, nominate Warren. Love it.

  5. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Here is a update from Politico on the Mueller report. We may have to talk some of the trolls off the ledge.

    “Mueller report PSA: Prepare for disappointment
    And be forewarned that the special counsel’s findings may never be made public.

    President Donald Trump’s critics have spent the past 17 months anticipating what some expect will be among the most thrilling events of their lives: special counsel Robert Mueller’s final report on Russian 2016 election interference.
    They may be in for a disappointment.
    That’s the word POLITICO got from defense lawyers working on the Russia probe and more than 15 former government officials with investigation experience spanning Watergate to the 2016 election case. The public, they say, shouldn’t expect a comprehensive and presidency-wrecking account of Kremlin meddling and alleged obstruction of justice by Trump — not to mention an explanation of the myriad subplots that have bedeviled lawmakers, journalists and amateur Mueller sleuths.
    Perhaps most unsatisfying: Mueller’s findings may never even see the light of day.
    “That’s just the way this works,” said John Q. Barrett, a former associate counsel who worked under independent counsel Lawrence Walsh during the Reagan-era investigation into secret U.S. arms sales to Iran. “Mueller is a criminal investigator. He’s not government oversight, and he’s not a historian.”

  6. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    It is possible we could enter 2019 with more Republicans in the Senate, maybe even the Republicans keeping a House majority, the Mueller investigation having fizzled, and Trump’s popularity near 50%.

    On a good note, Bogo Pogo will have a real estate boom, as lots in its new “troll beachfront estates” sell rapidly. Each new buyer will be given a complementary kayak so they are prepared for the rising seas caused by global warming.

  7. mnw says:

    Politico has reported these CLF internals:

    NE-02 Bacon (R) +11
    MN-08 Stauber (R) +8
    IA-01 Blum (R) +4
    FL-27 tie

  8. Todd McCain says:

    7. Perhaps the Dems left IA 1 too soon thinking it was a done deal?

  9. DW says:

    Blum has been written off before. But these are internals. I am a little disappointed in seeing an R internal of FL_27 showing a tie, after Mason-Dixon said R+2.

    Wait, CLF is R internal or D internal?

  10. DW says:

    ok, R internal. We will see on FL_27 I guess

  11. mnw says:

    RE: Blum (R) IA-01:

    In the world of polling, imo, there is Ann Selzer’s Iowa Poll, & then there is… nothing. (OK, Mason-Dixon, maybe… 15 furlongs behind Selzer, and THEN nothing).

    So presumably Selzer will update us before the GE, & then we’ll know. She is the Annie Oakley of pollsters– never misses. (They hate hearing that at RRH, btw: “There are many fine pollsters with even better records!” )

  12. DW says:

    IA_01 does seem to be alive again…hoping somehow Blum finds the rabbit in the hat again.

  13. DW says:

    PA_07 – Muhlenberg College

    Wild (D) 48%
    Nothstein (R) 41%

    Lean to likely D is the ranking across the board.

  14. mnw says:

    538 starts to go a little wobbly?

    “we’re seeing roughly equal turnouts for both parties”

    Indeed? That is not the stuff of a Big Blue Wave.

  15. Mr.Vito says:

    Depends on independents…

  16. DW says:

    No worries, Silver’s banking on the fundraising.

  17. Mr.Vito says:

    57% oppose banning semi-automatic guns; 40% favor a ban

    Opposition is up after 2017 reading in wake of Las Vegas shooting

  18. mnw says:

    Schweikart has been preaching that Blum (“I’m not dead yet! Think I’ll go for a walk!”) was doing fine, even as Blum was being written off. In that, Schweikart may have been prescient.

    LS also has been saying that Loebsack (D) may be in trouble in IA-02, & that that seat might flip blue-to-red, fwiw.

  19. Wes says:

    Messy my boy, if Dems were doing “fine” in 2014 till Ebola hit, then why did Nate Silver predict Republicans would win the Senate the day before the announcement of the disease’s presence in the US?

  20. George says:

    Morning Joe’s word of the day was “message”—and the Democrats’ lack of one with the elections only 18 days away.

    Mika Brezinski led the panicky charge, warning Dems that not only could they fail to retake the House or the Senate, but that their only “star” this cycle—Beto O’Rourke—could lose by 10 points!

    OE SCARBOROUGH: We were asked a question on Colbert: what’s the Democrats’ message? Who’s the one Democrat who’s inspired you, that’s put the message together? And I will say, for once in our lives, we sat there stunned —

    MIKA BRZEZINSKI: We were like “bah, bah bah bah, bah.”

    JOE: We had nothing to say.

    . . .

    JOE: What’s the Democrats message?

    . . .

    MIKA: What is the Democrats’ unifying message? Who is their marquee candidate? . . . What is their message? Democrats have produced exactly on national star this cycle.

    JOE: One star!

    MIKA: And guess what?

    JOE: This guy could lose by double-digits.

    MIKA: That is correct! That’s what we’re looking at right now. Beto O’Rourke could lose by 10 points!

    . . .

    MIKA: It’s not impossible that despite the trainwreck that is the Trump presidency, Republicans could keep control—listen carefully—of the Senate, and the House.

  21. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    17. “57% oppose banning semi-automatic guns; 40% favor a ban. Opposition is up after 2017 reading in wake of Las Vegas shooting.”

    It always happens that way. Briefly in reaction to a mass shooting support for a ban goes up, then it falls rapidly again. Am in Utah over the next week, so get to go to the gun range and shoot my AR-15. Your now seeing a lot more women at the range, and parents teaching their older teenagers how to safely use guns.

  22. mnw says:

    RE: TN SEN & GOV:

    Early voting in TN is about THREE TIMES what it was in 2014, & is approaching the turnout in the ’16 Presidential year.

    Especially heavy early voting in Knox County, TN… let’s just say that’s NOT where the DEMs would prefer to see it.

  23. phoenixrisen says:

    Yes Democrats, go with this. The government should determine how much you make every year! It’s a winner!

  24. Mr.Vito says:

    26 Let me guess… to help pay for some sort of universal health care or income

  25. NYCmike says:

    “It always happens that way. Briefly in reaction to a mass shooting support for a ban goes up, then it falls rapidly again. Am in Utah over the next week, so get to go to the gun range and shoot my AR-15. Your now seeing a lot more women at the range, and parents teaching their older teenagers how to safely use guns.”

    -In regards to this, I was very happy this past summer when my son signed up for rifle badge at Boy Scout camp, and we are already signed up for Shooting Sports Weekend next spring.

    All of the kids are very attentive while on the range. NONE of them, whenever I have been in attendance, have ever needed to be disciplined for lack of listening or improper (unsafe) handling of firearm.

  26. phoenixrisen says:

    27. More toward universal income though their rhetoric hybridizes that term

  27. DW says:

    University of NH:


    Kelly (D) 39%
    Sununu (R) 50%

    Probably means they will follow with House polls. Hopefully Sununu with coattails for NH_01

  28. mnw says:

    I’d love to see them try to outbid each other in 2020, to woo Zero’s “free zh*t army” vote… & then see how that plays in the GE.

  29. NYCmike says:

    “Hopefully Sununu with coattails for NH_01”

    -Hadn’t there been earlier polls which did NOT show any coattails?

  30. DW says:

    Here are the only NH_01 polls I know of:

    33/55 (ARG) – A joke of a pollster
    42/40 (R-Int)
    35/40 (Emerson) – close.
    36/44 (St. Anselm) – never heard of them.

    University of NH has a left tilt, but otherwise fairly reliable.

  31. Waingro says:

    #30,Sununu is the last of a dying breed in the “live free or die” state.

    Within 4 years, a liberal Reublican like Charlie Baker will be the best “Northern Massachusetts” can do statewide.

    Oh and kiss the congressional districts goodbye as well.

  32. GPO says:

    #30,Sununu is the last of a dying breed in the “live free or die” state.

    Within 4 years, a liberal Reublican like Charlie Baker will be the best “Northern Massachusetts” can do statewide.

    Oh and kiss the congressional districts goodbye as well.

    Would like to see Sununu or Ayotte take hold of one of those 2 senate seats in the near future. I believe NH recently passed tougher voter ID laws which make this possible

  33. Waingro says:

    #35, Ayotte and Sununu are probably the only ones that could swing it, but they are definitely fighting an upstream battle, particularly at the federal level.

  34. Wobbles says:

    I am a conservative that wants Pelosi as speaker.

    My fellow Jebot is a conservative that won’t be unhappy with her as speaker.

    This woman is the antithesis of EVERYTHING a conservative stands for, but if she gets in it will be bad for Trump.

    That is how we think.

  35. GPO says:

    Waingro I agree but don’t forget just 2 years ago Ayotte lost by only 2/10th of a percent

  36. lisab says:

    57% oppose banning semi-automatic guns; 40% favor a ban

    are not pistols semi-automatic?

  37. JulStol says:

    “don’t forget just 2 years ago Ayotte lost by only 2/10th of a percent”

    In other words, she lost because of HHR’s old adversary, MoFra.

  38. ReadyFirst says:

    lisa, most are, which was my first thought, but not revolvers. Never gonna happen, too many weapons.

  39. mnw says:


    Sorry I overreacted to your post about the McSally debate the other night.

    There are some signs that voters thought it was benign.

  40. lisab says:

    i think hillary wants to run

    and may even try to sweep in late if the dems have a bruising nomination and pick a sure loser

  41. lisab says:

    Jim Acosta
    Tonight the Trump campaign/WH turned up the music so loud the press risers were vibrating. Nearly impossible to do live TV. I suppose the WH loves those kinds of shenanigans. But I wonder if it’s a security concern for USSS or local law enforcement. They can’t hear either.

    stop the hammering!

  42. Mr.Vito says:

    Why do they need live TV during the music?

  43. lisab says:

    LA grapples with outbreak of typhus among poorest…


    last major outbreak of typhus in usa was 1873

  44. Mr.Vito says:

    Maybe typhus will hand the election to the GOP like Ebola did in 2014.

  45. ReadyFIrst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-19-2018:
    Rep-348,222 Dem-302,118 Other-4,230 NPA-136,868 Total-791,438 as of 10/19/2018 10:04AM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-10.9% Dem-9.4%
    *of note, looks like there is no 1:04 update today. Reps closed the gap of total ballots requested today by roughly 2,000 for a net difference of 67,492. The trend this week is Reps gained 1/10th of a percent, net, in votes returned every day, Hope this continues.

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!

  46. Phil says:

    Early voting in Texas starts in a few days (Monday to be exact). My wife and I decided to resist voting for rock star Beto. It was a tough decision.

  47. lisab says:

    Federal Judge Drops Bomb: I Was Given ‘False’ Statements to Derail Requests for Clinton Benghazi Docs

    In bombshell comments during a court hearing on Friday, a federal judge claimed that Hillary Clinton’s top aide Cheryl Mills had not only committed perjury but the judge also accused State Department officials of lying and signing “clearly false” affidavits to derail a series of lawsuits seeking information about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s private email server and her handling of the 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

    U.S. District Court Judge Royce Lamberth first said he couldn’t believe it, that he was dumbfounded when he learned that the FBI had given Cheryl Mills immunity in the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s email server.

  48. mnw says:

    48 Vito

    Good one.

  49. ReadyFirst says:

    Vito, my brother in law had to deploy to North Africa with the 101st during the Ebola outbreak. Very scary time for him and my sister. Most soldiers accept the risk of bullets and bombs, but diseases and chemical weapons are a whole other story. Most upsetting, is in the aftermath, Obama was letting others back into the country with no quarantine, but soldiers had to quarantine on return for several weeks. Many soldiers felt it was Obama not giving a crap about them, which he didn’t.

  50. lisab says:

    this could be big

    Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro Accuses Kushner of Orchestrating Khashoggi Killing

    Without evidence, Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX), a member of the House intelligence committee, said Jared Kushner might have passed a “hit list” to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman resulting in the apparent brutal slaying of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

    Castro, during a CNN appearance Friday morning, cited unspecified “reporting that Jared Kushner may have, with U.S. intelligence, delivered a hit list, an enemies list, to the crown prince, to MBS, in Saudi Arabia and that the prince may have acted on that, and one of the people he took action against is Mr. Khashoggi.”

  51. lisab says:

    hawaiian Judge orders Betsy DeVos to begin student loan forgiveness

  52. lisab says:

    President Trump greenlights assaults on reporters (

    cool 🙂

  53. lisab says:

    Colorado cracks a billion in annual marijuana sales in record time, generating $200M in tax revenue … democrats fear low turnout in colorado as doritos go on sale

  54. DW says:

    Student Loan forgiveness = Redistribution of wealth.

    The way to end the Student Loan crisis is to have the federal government GET OUT of the business of giving the loans. If someone wants a loan for school, go to a bank and take out a loan. End Pell grants, and end federal loans, and prices at schools would drop. As it is, schools have no incentive to keep the cost of attending below the max of full pell and full loan limits.

    Get out of giving away taxpayer money and schools would stop paying 6 or 7 figures for basketball coaches.

  55. mnw says:

    Politico maybe caught the “going wobblys” from 538?

    GOP House “unlikely but not impossible. A growing number of Republicans, and even some Democrats, are saying that shifting political winds may benefit GOP….”

    (from today’s Politico– political reporter named Rabe)

  56. lisab says:

    bar tab shows washington was a partier

    The tab comes from a farewell party Washington’s troops threw him in 1787, just days before he and the rest of the crew signed off on the Constitution. The celebration was obviously held at Philly’s historic City Tavern, and things took quite a turn. Here’s what George and 54 of his closest friends consumed in one crazy night:

    54 bottles of Madeira
    60 bottles of claret
    22 bottles of porter
    12 bottles of beer
    8 bottles of hard cider
    8 bottles of Old Stock (a.k.a. colonial whiskey)
    7 large bowls of spiked punch

  57. JulStol says:


    All good, sir. Cream soda all ’round.

  58. dblaikie says:

    Well now I have to admit that Rasmussen is biased. They are nothing but GOP hacks. What else can you say about this poll with Warren. All I can say is: please, please, please, please let it be true. After seeing the poll I will even put it in the form of a prayer: “Dear Lord, I pray that the Democrats will nominate someone they deserve, that best represents them for President. Lord please give the Democrats strength to nominate that towering Native American Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren to the Us Senate. Please lord, let the Democrats believe the Rasmussen Poll.”

  59. mnw says:


    I did read that earlier. Early voting in Hamilton County 10x 2014. It would certainly be consistent with the early vote surge reported in eastern TN (Knoxville).

    I have no special knowledge or experience of IN, which makes me an expert just as core-eee is. Perhaps I should start a blog, pimp it here, & just copy assorted snippets from Wiki.

    In short, I have no feel for IN SEN whatever. BF is a Hoosier. He might.

  60. Hugh says:

    My hometown of Indy. Marion dem. Hamilton and Johnson republican. Looks bad for joe

  61. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    60. “bar tab shows washington was a partier.”

    Just Washington? Someone once said that the American Revolution was fueled by New England rum. Here is a list of the drink that members of the Continental Army were provided. It is from Rhode Island, but the list is similar from other states:

    “One quart of beer per day, per man; or nine gallons of molasses, or three quarters of a hundred of sugar, per hundred men, per week; or in lieu therof, one gill of rum, per man, per day.

    Half a gill of rum, per man, per day, when on fatigue.”

  62. ReadyFirst says:

    mnw, guess I’m just really enjoying report after report of Reps doing very well in absentee voting in places like AZ,FL, IN, NC etc. As we discussed a week ago, this says a lot more to me than another biased poll trying to prop up Dems in a disinformation campaign. I started feeling better after the primaries and seeing those turnout numbers. These absentee numbers make me feel even better. We’re not out of the woods yet, but so far so good.

  63. ReadyFirst says:

    67. SDC, what, no tequila, that bites?!

  64. Mr.Vito says:

    I will agree with this much. Reports that GOP turnout is good is better than reports that it is bad

  65. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    67. SDC, what, no tequila, that bites?!

    Sorry, agaves don’t grown in New England.

  66. ReadyFirst says:

    SDC, Guess I’d rather have signed up for that Mexican American war thingy then.

  67. Mr.Vito says:

    Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

    A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away.

    Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens. The needed 23-seat net gain is not that far beyond that and there are many different paths Democrats can take to achieve it. So the GOP is still at a disadvantage overall.

    There are 11 ratings changes this week, seven in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans.

  68. ReadyFirst says:

    I’ll take Wes and DW over Sabato. But the backtracking on Sabato’s part is a good sign.

  69. CG says:

    Not to brag, too much, but in predicting all 435 House races in both the 2014 and 2016 cycles, my results were better than Sabato and any other professional pundit I was able to find.

  70. lisab says:


    Corey says:
    341-197 Clinton (50-44 estimate)

  71. CG says:

    Yeah, I was much better in the other races that year.

  72. Wes says:

    I believe BayernFan was the most accurate analyst of the EC in 2016. Meanwhile, DW and I nailed the Senate margin exactly.

  73. CG says:

    In the 2016 Senate races, I was off by 1 on the total margin but 31-3 overall.

    I believe those who got the correct margin might have missed on 4 total races. I was 36-0 on the 2014 Senate races.

  74. CG says:

    However, I do on House predictions this year, there’s probably no way I can match the 429-6 I had in 2016 or the 426-9 I had in 2018.

  75. CG says:

    426-9 was ’14

  76. CG says:

    I’m looking at California now and I’m probably going to miss approximately 2 just there.

  77. CG says:

    Stay classy.

  78. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena has added TX-7, CA-49, FL-26

  79. lisab says:

    so what was the result of the electoral college in 2016 ?

  80. CG says:

    I believe Electoral College will one day be stripped of it’s 2016 National Championship.

  81. lisab says:

    will hillary run again?

    yes 56%
    no 46%

  82. CG says:

    Will she run?

    According to some websites, she can’t even walk..

  83. NYCmike says:

    According to #NeverTrumpers, she only walks on water.

  84. CG says:

    She might merely float on water..

  85. DW says:

    RCP moved MI_11 from Lean D to Tossup

  86. ReadyFirst says:

    91. I knew it! She’s a witch!

  87. DW says:

    Will Siena call me this weekend in regards to VA_02? I am all set if they do. I will say I am a Democrat voting for Scott Taylor (R). This is the only way to move the needle on their poll. If I say I am a Republican voting for Taylor, it just gets thrown onto the pile. The only way to affect their weighting is to say I am a D voting for R.

  88. CG says:

    To be properly weighted into their poll and help Taylor, be sure to also say that you strongly disapprove of Donald Trump/favor impeachment, or whatever they ask.

  89. ReadyFirst says:

    Desantis’ previous campaign problem in a nutshell. It wasn’t his monkey comment. Glad he fixed the problem.
    “Since October 1, the campaign has had tremendous success, with 578,607 doors knocked and 561,471 phone calls made,” the media release asserts.

    Worth noting: Oct. 1 was just a few short days after campaign manager Susie Wiles took over operations, which one person close to the campaign described as being like having an adult in the room.”

  90. lisab says:

    Corey says:

    341 – 197 (50 to 44 estimate)

    second worst on hhr

  91. DW says:

    My guess is, if I am on to Siena with the strategy I outlined above, so are Democrats. Watching the votes come across, can see two or even three red ones in a row (For Taylor), but then one blue one and the Democrat’s percentage jumped up a point. Must have been a ‘Republican’ saying he or she will vote for the Democrat.

  92. mnw says:

    Larry Schweikart :


    AA turnout -2
    White turnout +6


    GOP +4% over 2014

  93. lisab says:

    nebraska school served students kangaroo meat

  94. DW says:

    …explains why they were extra bouncy at recess?

  95. Mr.Vito says:

    98 It does that for both parties. It depends on what they have gotten in already and what they are weighting it to be.

    If they had 100 Democrats and 50 Republicans answer in a poll they want to be even, then the republican number is heavily weighted… so a republican will change the number more on the margins.

  96. DW says:

    102 – exactly. Why its so important to answer the phone and say you are a D voting for R. Moves the needle.

  97. lisab says:

    rep adam schiff acuses rep tom macarthur for racism against koreans

    macarthur has two adopted children from korea


  98. Wes says:

    Didn’t Dems also try to say Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin—who has an Asian wife—of being racist against Asians?

  99. DW says:

    Siena’s FL_26

    Two votes in, one for each candidate:

    Curbelo trails 47/53

  100. Mr.Vito says:

    106 Right, because they weight the district 53-47 by party registration.

  101. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay, actually that voter is registered other but voted republican.

    If they are weighting by Party ID instead of party registration, then that is not typical, and not what they are purporting on the front page (maybe its on the methodolgy page though).

  102. Wes says:

    I was mistaken. Bevin is married to a white woman. They’ve adopted four children from Ethiopia. I must have confused Bevin and McConnell.

  103. Mr.Vito says:

    On second thought, I think it is probably that one said they were more likely to vote than the other, and that is affecting the scoring.

  104. Hugh says:

    Looking at pictures of refugees heading our way look very well fed and we’ll dressed. The homeless in San Fran look far worse

  105. Mr.Vito says:

    Ed Rollins said today that there are 15 seats gone, and nine are open seats.

  106. Wes says:

    That sounds about right, Vito.

  107. mnw says:

    Name 2 states that are both very beautiful AND very f’ed up:

    1) AZ (McVain & Flake);

    2) AK (Murk; this bird; Gravel & all the rest of ’em)

  108. Mr.Vito says:


    In the FL-27 poll, Shalala was +20 after 200 votes, and a reliability disclaimer has been on the poll for most of its life.

    Over the next 300+ votes, Salazar has been consistently +2.

  109. GPO says:

    Ed Rollins is a pollster correct? never trumper?

  110. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Ed Rollins is NOT a pollster, but a political analyst and former Reagan confidant.
    Mr. Rollins is NOT and has never been even close to being a Never Trumpster.

  111. Mr.Vito says:

    A couple months ago, Rollins said there was no blue wave, and thought the GOP would narrowly hold the house. He said there were too many retirements. He also said there were a lot of missed opportunities in the Senate at that time.

  112. lisab says:

    In campus speech, David Hogg says U.S. is stolen land, justifies illegal immigration

  113. Tina says:

    My Hogg is back.

  114. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    . @DeanHeller said Nevada has become “@realDonaldTrump Country.” His approval in Nevada is about 7 points higher than it was on Election Day. 45% on Nov. 2016 vs. 52% on October 11. Same is true in Arizona, 8 points higher, 46% vs. 54%. Certainly couldn’t hurt.
    8:54 AM – 19 Oct 2018

  115. Phil says:

    Camera Hogg is a trip.

    The more this moron keeps talking the better for the GOP in November. As Tina likes to say, MORE HOGG.

  116. mnw says:

    Being a single dad, half the time, motivates me to state emphatically the stay-at-home moms (or dads) who cook, clean, do laundry, & chauffeur kids around all day are not “leeches.”

    “Leeches” almost sounds like something a snarky, bisexual/lesbian might say. Go figure.

  117. Hugh says:

    Anyone else noticing the last couple days the polling results on Siena are moving percentages up quite a bit towards gop candidates over early results

  118. EML says:

    98 – DW, based on the stats they show on their poll pages, Siena already knows your age, race, party affiliation, etc, before they call you.

  119. EML says:

    Weekend trip to Philadelphia area. Taking the kids to see all the sights. Did Sesame Place today. Philadelphia Zoo tomorrow. Egging bitter’s house on Sunday.

  120. MichiganGuy says:

    Arizona Senate
    Sinema 46.5%
    McSally 41.1%
    Greeen 2.9%
    Other 1%
    Undecided 7.5%
    Data Orbital

  121. MichiganGuy says:

    Nevada Senate
    Rosen 48%
    Heller 46%
    PPP (D) Poll

  122. MichiganGuy says:

    Maine #2
    Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37%
    Jared Golden (D) 37%
    Tiffany Bond (I) 6%
    Will Hoar (I) 3%
    Pan Atlantic Research

  123. Phil says:

    None of those three polls are good.

    If they are accurate we are looking at a Democratic tidal wave.

    The real killer is the McSally poll. Bad Bad news.

  124. Tgca says:

    130 EML

    Don’t forget the flower show or Woodys. Two of Bitters fav haunts.

  125. Phil says:

    So 13% of Republicans in Arizona are crossing over to vote for that loon?

    Hell, if that’s even remotely accurate the GOP deserves to get stomped in November. It’s just too stupid to win.

  126. Scooby77 says:

    Heller is destroying Rosen in this debate. Not even close.

  127. Tina says:

    Yeah, bs on enema ahead.

  128. Mr.Vito says:

    The DataOrbital poll has Sinema winning with whites by 1 and Hispanics by 28.

    The Siena poll has McSally winning whites by 10 and losing Hispanics by 7.

    Someone is very wrong.

  129. Mr.Vito says:


    “With a little more than a week of early voting under our belt, we are on pace to hit a Republican ballot advantage that reflects the average surge scenario or better. We will continue to track ballot returns and the Republican ballot advantage to predict outcomes in races up and down the ballot.”

  130. Scooby77 says:

    Vito, what does 140 mean? Republican ballot advantage, yet Sinema up 5 or 6? What gives?

  131. mnw says:


    Your apprehension is misplaced, imo.

    The Maine poll (133 above) is GOOD news. A lot of pundits already wrote that one off. Am I right, DW? Be brutally frank.

    McSally/Sinema is so redhot, it’s like trying to poll a speeding bullet. Trump is on it right now.

  132. Mr.Vito says:

    Republicans naturally have a ballot advantage in AZ… their poll assumes a +9 advantage, and the early votes are outperforming that.

  133. Mr.Vito says:

    No, the Maine seat is considered in play. Siena just had it tied at 41.

  134. MichiganGuy says:

    Arizona Senate
    Early Voting
    Republicans 44.7%
    Democrats 31.8%
    Indies 22%
    Other 1.5%
    Data Orbital
    Video of George Khalaf, president and CEO of Data Orbital, goes through the numbers.

  135. Hugh says:

    McSally owns Sinema or we are wasting our time caring. This is the common sense poll. War hero in a purple to red state against a leftwing loon. Who wins?? War hero 52 nutbag loon 47 the rest gets 1. I make my 5k investment tomorrow. 1k Fl governor race. 1k Rosendale. 1k Braun. 1k heller. 1k Scott. I change my senate pick up from + 3 to + 4.

  136. MichiganGuy says:

    “The National Republican Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure unit is pulling out of Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman’s district in the Denver suburbs, while jumping into the open race in Florida’s 27th Congressional District, according to a source familiar with the decision.

    The committee is pulling about $1 million from Coffman’s district, as the Republican congressman has lagged behind Democrat Jason Crow in private and public polling.”

  137. Mr.Vito says:

    Supposedly the GOP gave up on Coffman two weeks ago… news to me that they were still there.

  138. Mr.Vito says:

    I guarantee Coffman was one of the ones Rollins considered to be ‘gone’.

  139. Bitterlaw says:

    Dem ads around Philadelphia are focused on one issue – health care.

  140. mnw says:


    Many of The Wise Men had posted that Polquin was gone.

  141. Phil says:

    Vito, thanks for the inside numbers on the Arizona polls. I feel a little better I guess. I have a real hard time believing Sinema is running even with whites. That strikes me as improbable. However, I suppose that would be the number if they are correct that 13% of Republicans (presumably almost all of them being white) are crossing over to vote for the loon. That’s just hard for me to believe, however. Surely those Republican voters aren’t that stupid – I mean, Arizona is not West Virginia.

  142. mnw says:

    Poliquin (R-inc) in ME-02 is below DW’s magic line, albeit barely.

    A tie right now seems pretty good to me.

  143. Scooby77 says:

    Vito, Phil,

    Seriously, I don’t understand how it’s even close in Arizona. The things Sinema said, ON TAPE!, and it’s basically a coin toss, in a slightly lean right state? They should be doing nothing but showing Sinema being Sinema, the ads write themselves.

  144. Hugh says:

    155. It’s not close or we live in a opposite world

  145. mnw says:

    sort of a semi-BOOM?

    Cook has gone wobbly too:

    He now sees GOP pickups in TN and MO (!!yes!!), & says, “DEM hopes in AZ (yes!) & TN have backslid the most in this post-Kavanaugh period.” (No mention of IN; MT or WV)

    “Not long ago, the most likely outcome for the Senate was no change or a shift of 1 seat….Today, a Republican gain of a seat or 2 seems most likely, moving the GOP up to either 52 or 53 seats….”

  146. Phil says:

    He must mean a pickup in ND, not Tenn.

  147. mnw says:

    157 correction; sb “pickups in ND & MO”

    (NOT in “TN & MO”; me bad)

  148. mnw says:

    Obviously he sees the outlook as dreadful for McCaskill, if she’s WORSE off than Bredesen!

    Not spreading sunshine about Sinema, either.

  149. Phil says:

    So how is Bredesen faring in Tennessee anyway. Do we have a handle on that race?

  150. mnw says:

    Blackburn has had solid leads in most of the RECENT polls.

  151. mnw says:

    Trump 2nite in Mesa:

    “If you want to defend your borders, you must vote for Martha and Republicans on Nov. 6th.” Talked quite a bit about the so-called caravan.

    Very hard-hitting speech. NV is next, & that’s tomorrow.

  152. mnw says:

    Siena has completed its AZ SEN poll: McSally +2

    Siena shows big lead for DEM in PA-08. That poll is also completed.

    FL-27 tied– not sure if completed entirely.

    Larry Schweikart concludes his analysis of 3 days of early voting in GA:: “Can you say Gov. Kemp?”

  153. MichiganGuy says:

    Illinois #12
    Bost (R) 49%
    Kelly (D) 39%
    Siena College/New York Times LIVE Poll

  154. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida #15
    Spano (R) 43%
    Carlson (D) 43%
    Siena College/New York Times Poll

  155. MichiganGuy says:

    Generic Congressional Vote
    Democrats 49%
    Republicans 44%
    Civiqs Poll
    Civiqs was started by Kos Media founder and CEO Markos Moulitsas. So, being only 5 points down in their poll is great news for Republicans. Even they don’t see a blue wave.