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McSally Leads Sinema by 2% in AZ

The New York Times and Siena College have put out a new poll in Arizona that shows Martha McSally moving in front of Kyrsten Sinema.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (NYT/Siena)
Martha McSally (R) 48%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 46%

This poll was done October 15-19 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:23 am
Filed under: General | Comments (342)

342 Responses to “McSally Leads Sinema by 2% in AZ”

  1. Todd McCain says:

    GOP in Florida has AGAIN increased their VBM ballot lead to around 51,000 up from 46,000 yesterday.

  2. MichiganGuy says:

    Dave is back!!! Daily threads! wow wow wow

  3. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Todd
    Ditto Arizona. The GOP continues to spread its lead in absentee balloting.
    So where is the enthusiasm gap the media dwells on?

  4. Phil says:

    ……in their heads.

  5. Skippy says:

    Florida VBM current 2018 numbers.

    Republicans 43.99%
    Democrats 38.24%

    Florida VBM 2014 numbers.

    Republicans 44.38%
    Democrats 37.58%

  6. Wes says:

    That’s a drop from +6.8% to +5.75%. The actual numerical advantage though is larger.

  7. Mr.Vito says:

    And independents may be less GOP friendly this year…

  8. Hugh says:

    8. On what basis? Trump is more popular now than when he won his election. Probably true in blue states but not in red states and most of the action is in red states this midterm

  9. Hugh says:

    6. I suspect the drop may have to do with the panhandle

  10. jason says:

    Dave is back!!! Daily threads! wow wow wow”

    Don’t forget, if you are unhappy with the number of threads you can always go elsewhere.

  11. michael corleone says:

    Skippy be careful with the VBM count today – Palm Beach County has yet to report so that gap will decrease a bit. Still think it will end with an increase over yesterday.

  12. jason says:

    Trump is more popular now than when he won his election.”

    Huh, not really.

    His popularity certain doesn’t match his 2016 vote percentage in a lot of these key states.

    In any case its going to hinge on turnout.

  13. jason says:

    And independents may be less GOP friendly this year…”

    Hard to argue with this statement.

  14. Skippy says:

    #12,

    I don’t have to be careful because I’m just putting down the numbers what they currently state.

    The numbers are the numbers, and yes they will change again today.

  15. Mr.Vito says:

    “8. On what basis? Trump is more popular now than when he won his election.”

    Because we just don’t know yet.

  16. Hugh says:

    A number of recent polls on trump have him at about 47%. Also for Florida, keep in mind this year’s midterm early voting is only a week. In the 2014 midterms it was two weeks. The Democrats dominate early voting in Palm Beach Dade County and Broward County.

  17. Mr.Vito says:

    Comstock claims she is narrowly ahead on Fox, and says Dems have sunk 3.5million into the race.

    James Comey gave her opponent $2700… the maximum.

  18. mnw says:

    I put up some posts very late last night:

    1) “Can you say Governor Kemp?” That’s how Larry Schweikart concludes his analysis of the first 3 days of early voting in GA.

    2) Cook went wobbly on the Senate. Changed his prediction from No Change or +/- 1 for either party to “GOP most likely gains 1 or 2 seats.” Says ND & MO (!!!) are in same category, as likely D to R flips, & that the Kav hrg fallout is helping the GOP in TN & AZ.

    3) Siena finished its PA-08 poll, & it shows the DEM way ahead– by 8 points, going by memory only. Siena also finished FL-27 (or damn close to finishing), & has it tied.

    I think I posted a couple of other things after midnight in STL, as did MichiganGuy.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    3.5mill over the last 48 hours she says… 2mill from Bloomberg…

  20. dblaikie says:

    Vito, I agree with DW about campaigns releasing internals. It is very hard to know the motivation for there release. However I believe that well funded candidates have poll data that is as accurate as possible. Usually they keep that data to themselves. However, Comstock, was written off a long time ago. I am sure she fears that her vote will be suppressed because of that. So I think her fox interview is telling her supporters that this race is closer than the media, with their polls would have you believe. Time will tell.

  21. dblaikie says:

    their release …

    On another matter, I find it interesting, suspicious, what ever you want to call it, that no one has polled the Montana Senate race in a month. There must be someone who would want to poll it. Or maybe they have didn’t like the result and the entity that commissioned the research, buried it.

  22. Mr.Vito says:

    Comstock was not written off by the GOP.

    She outperformed her polling by double digits in 2016.

  23. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-20-2018:
    Rep-386,728 Dem-336,186 Other-4,662 NPA-151,429 Total-879,005 as of 10/20/2018 10:03AM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-12% Dem-10.4%
    *of note, Reps closed the gap of total ballots requested today by roughly 4,000 for a net difference of 63518. The trend this week is Reps gained 1/10th of a percent, net, in votes returned every day, Hope this continues.

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  24. jason says:

    James Comey gave her opponent $2700…”

    I guess Corey and Comey have something in common.

    Republicans for Pelosi.

  25. jason says:

    I don’t have to be careful”

    Skippy has a history of not being careful, give him a break.

  26. ReadyFirst says:

    Don’t know where people are seeing decreases in FL. All I’m seeing is more and more ballots requested by Reps and a higher percentage of the total vote going to Reps by an increase of tenth of a percentage every day.

  27. ReadyFirst says:

    *percent

  28. mnw says:

    correction to 19 above

    Siena has Shalala (D) ahead by +7. I erred in saying Siena showed a tie. That was Siena’s earlier poll. Again, I’m not certain this is their final result.

  29. Wobbles says:

    A number of recent polls on trump have him at about 47%”

    Remember when I stated here that if Trump was at 45% Rs would hold the House?

    I meant they would hold 40 less seats than they have now.

  30. Phil says:

    Mason=Dixon has polled Montana in the past. I would expect them to be the outfit that polls them soon. They are excellent.

    I see Siena in their early re-polling of Tx-7 has Fletcher well ahead of Culberson. Not surprising to me in the least. Democrats have spent over two million in the race and Culberson is being ponded 24/7 with negative ads on healthcate targeting the suburban women in the district. He was late with his ad campaign and it’s relatively lame. I guess it boils down to money and he’s being badly outgunned there. This is one of those districts that I suspect money will actually have made the difference unfortunately. Disappointing that Culberson didn’t see this coming. Stupid really. It’s a district Hillary carried by four or five points. I know DW has been going by a poll showing Culberson up three but that poll is stale and was taken before the massive ad blitz by Democrats.

  31. Mr.Vito says:

    Phil, what do you expect are Beto’s numbers in that district?

  32. jason says:

    You guys can change this by election day, but how about we each predict s surprise result for the 2018 election, it can be a D or R surprise.

    Like D loss in NJ or R loss in TX senate race. Or R wins OR governor race. Or Comstock wins in VA.

  33. Robbie says:

    Wobbles says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:25 am
    A number of recent polls on trump have him at about 47%”
    Remember when I stated here that if Trump was at 45% Rs would hold the House?
    I meant they would hold 40 less seats than they have now

    – Poor Jason fraud. His life is so empty he has nothing better to do than hide behind a fake screen name on a Saturday morning.

    Here’s the deal you worthless sack of Trump ball licking monkey crap. Trump spent too much of the last year and a half with an approval rating around 40%. That had a profound impact on voter perceptions of him and how incumbent Republicans viewed their own re-election chances. That’s why many of the 40 retirees decided not to run. They saw the storm clouds coming.

    Had Trump hovered around the 45% mark for much of the last year, I doubt we’d have seen so many retirements and I doubt views about Trump would have become so hardened. Why? Voters would have been more focused on the economy and not his tweets and behavior.

    For many of these races, whatever rise in the polls Trump has seen has probably come too late for many in tough races. When I suggested 45% as a key mark, I didn’t expect so many retirements and I also didn’t expect the PA supreme court would brazenly steal as many as 4 or 5 seats from Republicans.

    Now, go back to telling yourself Trump’s tweets about Mika’s facelift were awesome.

  34. Robbottie says:

    Stop hiding behind a screen name, jason… if that IS EVEN your real name!

  35. Robbie says:

    The NYT/Siena poll in AZ is good news for McSally. At least in this instance, it shows McSally moving up to the upper 40’s, a place she hasn’t been for much of the campaign. It also shows Sinema stalling in the mid 40’s where Democrats often stall in states that usually vote for Republicans. This could be an instance where the usual dynamics and normal voting patterns of he state are starting to take hold.

  36. Phil says:

    Vito, I suspect Beto is winning that district by about what Hillary won it by – 4 or 5 points. It fits the profile of the type of district he would do well in. Don’t think he’s running ahead of Hillary there. Thing is, Beto is trailing Cruz by 8 or 9 pts statewide- exactly what Trump beat Clinton by. I see the same exact voting pattern across the state that we saw in the presidential race. Exurban district heavy for Cruz and the big cities for Beto. That computes to about the same margins that we saw in the 2016 presidential race. Cruz will prevail by 7-9 pts.

  37. mnw says:

    Vichey says, “Looks like Hillary may carry MO too!”

    Why does anybody here, other than his fellow trolls, even read his posts, let alone respond to his “logic”?

  38. Hugh says:

    I actually agree with something Robbie just said. Had Trump been more popular early on we would not of had 40 retirees and we would’ve definitely held the house.

  39. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay, Phil. The poll has Beto up 14. It is only 70 people. The pattern in these stereotypical “suburban” districts has been a lot of liberal men, and then that number generally comes down. So, maybe that will happen in this one too. (currently 60% men and Culberson losing them by 12 points)

  40. Hugh says:

    Tester will lose. 33 is that enough of a reach? If not then I’m going with Manchin losing.

  41. Phil says:

    I agree that the large number of Republican incumbents retiring has been the largest hurdle in trying to keep the House.

  42. Robbie says:

    *Disclaimer: I know Haley is not running in 2020*

    I don’t agree with every point the author of this piece made, especially the ones about why Trump won in 2016, but I think he makes some good points about why Haley is the best choice for Republicans in 2020 and why waiting for 2024 could be a mistake for her.

    If anyone saw Haley’s comments at the Al Smith dinner the other night, I suspect they saw what I did as well. A person who would be an extremely strong presidential candidate. It’s hard to define what “it” is, but she certainly seems to have “it”.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/19/nikki-haley-2020-republican-party-221667

  43. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:37 am
    Vichey says, “Looks like Hillary may carry MO too!”
    Why does anybody here, other than his fellow trolls, even read his posts, let alone respond to his “logic”?

    – The Trump ball licker who thinks we should pay attention to Newt Gingrich has thoughts.

  44. Mr.Vito says:

    I think Trump would like to make Haley Secretary of State and have her run in 2024, just because he likes pushing Hillary’s buttons.

  45. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:42 am
    I agree that the large number of Republican incumbents retiring has been the largest hurdle in trying to keep the House.

    – And if Democrats win the House by just a few seats, the brazen move by the PA supreme court will have been key.

    Trump edging towards and even above 45% in the RCP average will almost certainly help save some seats that otherwise would have been lost, but I think his rise in the polls may have come too late to have the kind of effect it might have had he been there most of the last two years.

  46. mnw says:

    Cook Political Report 10/19/18: “A Change in GOP Fortunes”

    This is the source material for post 19 above, i.e., about Cook going wobbly.

  47. Mr.Vito says:

    I would much rather listen to Newt than a guy whose new favorite phrase id “Trump ball licker”

  48. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:45 am
    I think Trump would like to make Haley Secretary of State and have her run in 2024, just because he likes pushing Hillary’s buttons.

    – Certainly a possibility, but, if we assume Trump does win in 2020, it will be hard for a Republican to win what would essentially be a third term in 2024. Ask Hillary. It’s been done before as we saw with GHWB, but it’s been uncommon since the days of FDR.

    If Haley sees 2024 as a likely Democrat year, then she may wait until 2028. That’s a full decade from now.

    I’m not 100% convinced Trump will run again (probably 90% convinced), but it could be the case it’s 2020 or nothing for Haley.

  49. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena has added NM-2, IL-6, and OH-1.

  50. dblaikie says:

    Vito, I meant the pundits have written her off. One of my biggest frustrations is that all the talking heads, liberal and conservative, use the Cook Report and 538 as their main authority. It is the cheap embrace of propaganda.

    And since I am complaining, I also can’t stand the way the talking heads have embraced “averaging” as Gospel. Averaging is bogus! Acting as if a poll taken over 2 weeks ago has meaning is laughable. Instead they should do the hard work of looking at the model, asking hard questions about a poll, and then just putting the facts out about the reliability of the poll. The result — the mess we have today.

  51. Mr.Vito says:

    “…it will be hard for a Republican to win what would essentially be a third term in 2024.”

    Which is why a strong female candidate would be awesome…

  52. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:49 am
    I would much rather listen to Newt than a guy whose new favorite phrase id “Trump ball licker”

    – I think Trump ball licker is better than anti Kenyan colonialist and I think Trump ball licker is far less offensive than leaving your first wife for another woman while say lay dying of cancer in the hospital as Newt did.

  53. Mr.Vito says:

    It has nothing to do with offensive… it is just plain dumb and lazy.

  54. mnw says:

    Vichey is a moron (documented) and a troll (obvious). WHY FEED THIS TROLL?

  55. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:51 am
    “…it will be hard for a Republican to win what would essentially be a third term in 2024.”
    Which is why a strong female candidate would be awesome…

    – I’m all onboard for Nikki Haley, whether it’s in 2020 or 2024, but it’s a tough thing to win a third term for one party even if she’d be the first female Republican nominated for the presidency. After all, there’s a good chance Democrats nominate their second woman nominee in a row in 2020 (Harris). I’m not sure the country will care. It certainly didn’t care that McCain picked Palin in 2008.

  56. Mr.Vito says:

    Sounds like the idiots that would go around saying “teabagger”…

  57. Tgca says:

    Cincuenta y ocho!

  58. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 20, 2018 at 10:56 am
    Vichey is a moron (documented) and a troll (obvious). WHY FEED THIS TROLL?

    – Documented by whom? You? The guy who disappeared for several years only to return as one of Trump’s most loyal and devoted populist defenders? The guy who thinks Newt Gingrich, a slug of human being, has any useful insights?

    You’re a populist, not conservative. So really you’re the troll because this is a forum dominated by center right conservatives and Republicans. Go back to the Breitbart comment section, troll.

    And by the way, I’ve been here almost continuously since 2004. It was only because I wouldn’t bow before Trump and Trumpism, neither of which is Republican or conservative, that simpletons like you started to believe I was a troll.

  59. Todd McCain says:

    43. Perhaps Trump gets Pence to drop and adds her to ticket.

  60. jason says:

    but I think his rise in the polls may have come too late to have the kind of effect it might have had he been there most of the last two years.

    LOL

    Amoral Scumbag moves goal posts again.

    Now it’s not that if Trump reaches 45% Rs will keep House (repeated here dozens of times) but now he had to have been at over 45% for TWO YEARS.

    There is no limit to the extent this bottom feeding scumbag will not go to to debase himself

  61. jason says:

    o really you’re the troll because this is a forum dominated by center right conservatives and Republicans”

    What are you doing here?

    Ah yes, another “conservative for Pelosi”

  62. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag still pretending Haley is going to run in 2020, despite the fact she already said she supports Trump and is not running.

    And of course, if she DID run, anyone doubt he would be here attacking her with every MSM talking point in a nanosecond?

  63. Tgca says:

    I’m freezing in this artic climate. Philly is colder than a witches t*t. I wanna go to Miami. Brghhh!

  64. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:03 am
    but I think his rise in the polls may have come too late to have the kind of effect it might have had he been there most of the last two years.
    LOL
    Amoral Scumbag moves goal posts again.
    Now it’s not that if Trump reaches 45% Rs will keep House (repeated here dozens of times) but now he had to have been at over 45% for TWO YEARS.
    There is no limit to the extent this bottom feeding scumbag will not go to to debase himself

    – I know you’re a stupid human being so I’ll try and use small, simple words in an effort to make things easier for you.

    Voters made their minds up about this election some time ago (probably the Spring). The same thing happene din 2010 and 2014. And when they did, Trump was around 40%.

    Also, Trump’s low standing throughout 2017 and much of 2018 caused many Republicans in the House to retire. Why? Presidential approval is the best indicator of how the president’s party will do in a midterm. So many in tough seats said “no thanks” and quit.

  65. mnw says:

    Tg

    Sorry to hear that. I asked you the other day if you’d stocked up on winter clothes yet.

  66. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:05 am
    o really you’re the troll because this is a forum dominated by center right conservatives and Republicans”
    What are you doing here?
    Ah yes, another “conservative for Pelosi”

    – I always enjoy when Jason fraud realizes his only avenue is to lie.

    Please show me a single post I’ve made that suggests I’m a conservative for Pelosi.

  67. Mr.Vito says:

    65 Hugh, you can’t ask that to a leftist because they don’t know any Trump voters. Ha

  68. Mr.Vito says:

    ” I know you’re a stupid human being so I’ll try and use small, simple words in an effort to make things easier for you.”

    Much better than “Trump ball licker”… appreciate it.

  69. Tgca says:

    67 mnw

    I am unpacking my winter clothes this weekend. Bitter has offered me some of his sweater collection but luckily I got my own. I’m sleeping with 2 blankets and 2 dogs to keep warm. It was like 45 last night. Brghhh!!!

  70. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:08 am
    Amoral Scumbag still pretending Haley is going to run in 2020, despite the fact she already said she supports Trump and is not running.
    And of course, if she DID run, anyone doubt he would be here attacking her with every MSM talking point in a nanosecond?

    – The best part about dealing with Jason fraud is recognizing that Trumpism has eaten away at his brain. Trumpism really is the Mad Cow disease of politics.

    In 43, I started with this line: *Disclaimer: I know Haley is not running in 2020*. Yet, our resident fraud thinks I believe Haley will challenge Trump.

  71. mnw says:

    Hugh 65

    Link wouldn’t work for me, but I’m reading everything Schweikart posts already.

    RE: Vichey-troll

    Self-exile on Bogo Pogo soon, for the “commercial airline pilot.” When that fool disappears, we ALL get a vacation.

    Remember, it’s not that he’s an ignoramus who can’t spell “Vichy”…. that was “a typo”!

  72. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:16 am
    ” I know you’re a stupid human being so I’ll try and use small, simple words in an effort to make things easier for you.”
    Much better than “Trump ball licker”… appreciate it.

    – I aim to please.

  73. Mr.Vito says:

    “Yet, our resident fraud thinks I believe Haley will challenge Trump.”

    Well, you did say you thought she wrote that op-ed.

  74. mnw says:

    Does that troll know as much about the Vichy regime as he does about Hillary carrying MO?

    Hard to say! 6 of one, half a dozen of the other!

    Vichey! Vichey! moron! moron

  75. Tina says:

    hweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    1h
    Replying to @PuttyBudd
    I have Sinema’s new campaign slogan: “Give your lives an Enema. Vote for Enema.”
    View conversation ·

  76. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:19 am
    Hugh 65
    Link wouldn’t work for me, but I’m reading everything Schweikart posts already.
    RE: Vichey-troll
    Self-exile on Bogo Pogo soon, for the “commercial airline pilot.” When that fool disappears, we ALL get a vacation.
    Remember, it’s not that he’s an ignoramus who can’t spell “Vichy”…. that was “a typo”!

    – Self exile, huh? Isn’t that what you did for a couple of years here before you showed back up as a populist Trump supporter?

    I guess when you were self exiled for several years from this forum that’s when you came to know the exquisite genius of Newt Gingrich, right?

  77. Tina says:

    Disclaimer.

    Haley is not running in 2020.

    I want Trump to lose.

    I want Hillary to win

    -Jebot

  78. Tgca says:

    Haley doesn’t have the balls to run against Trump. He would chew her up and spit her out. She would become as popular as Flake and then fade into oblivion. Haley owes her National name recognition to Trump. She would have passed into SC political oblivion after her governorship. She rallied around a losing candidate in the 2016 SC GOP primary who was trounced by Trump so the good folks of SC turned their backs on her recommendation. She sucked up to Trump afterwards like Romney did simply for a high name recognition position in his admin. He made that B*tch so she knows her place!

  79. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:20 am
    “Yet, our resident fraud thinks I believe Haley will challenge Trump.”
    Well, you did say you thought she wrote that op-ed.

    – Whether she did or didn’t write the op-ed doesn’t have anything to do with whether she’ll run or not.

    I don’t think she’ll challenge Trump. I wish she would, but I know she won’t.

  80. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    40m
    FL absentees; Rs +51,000 now in returns Rs 386,702 (44%) Ds 335,702 (38%) Indy/Other 155,979 (17.7%)
    View details ·

    I believe Trump was at 55 percent in Florida.

    52 in Nevada
    54 in Arizona

    (Last two cited by Schweirkert from PPD Barris)

  81. Mr.Vito says:

    “I have Sinema’s new campaign slogan: “Give your lives an Enema. Vote for Enema.”

    womp womp

  82. Tgca says:

    80

    My God! What a sexist misogynistic post.

  83. Tina says:

    Haley looks great on paper.

    Her record is good, but Pompeo called the shots.

    But can she take a punch? Or is her jaw, glass, like Quittens 2012?

  84. Mr.Vito says:

    So you think she wrote the op-ed and also an op-ed harshly criticizing the writer…

    interesting.

  85. Tina says:

    Phil,

    Houston, there is a problem.

    19000 seats for The Toyota Center.

    66000 request for tickets.

  86. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:23 am
    Does that troll know as much about the Vichy regime as he does about Hillary carrying MO?
    Hard to say! 6 of one, half a dozen of the other!
    Vichey! Vichey! moron! moron

    – I love that this buffoon is stuck on a spelling mistake. Of course, he never makes a spelling mistake and no one else here does as well. Tina is a veritable spell check in human form, but she loves her some Trump so all is forgiven, right Newt fanboy?

  87. Tina says:

    Actually 77k requests,

    18000 searing capacity, prolly more on the floor.

  88. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:29 am
    So you think she wrote the op-ed and also an op-ed harshly criticizing the writer…
    interesting.

    – I thought she was one possibility along with Kevin Hassett and Rod Rosenstein.

    And for the sake of argument let’s assume she did write the op-ed. Would be pretty smart to then write another one saying she didn’t, right?

    Plenty of what goes on in politics is disinformation.

  89. Robbie says:

    Liam Donovan
    @LPDonovan

    The Trump show has receded from the national picture (in ways that have probably benefitted his approval rating), but his presence still drives the heck out of coverage in the local markets.

  90. Mr.Vito says:

    “Would be pretty smart to then write another one saying she didn’t, right?”

    No. Because the moment she runs for President, she will be revealed as the op-ed writer.

    This is just silly.

  91. mnw says:

    Replacing Pence is one of the HHR trolls’ recurring masturbatory fantasies.

    Pence = priceless credibility for Trump with evangelicals.

    But who needs THEM? Well, without Pence, I believe Hillary would have won. It’s hard to remember now, but Trump was viewed with grave suspicion by the religious right Putting Pence on the ticket was damn near brilliant. Problem solved.

    P.S. Why isn’t Pence back in IN, helping Braun more?

    Vito 86

    Because… idiot.

  92. Hugh says:

    Tina. What do mean 55%

  93. Mr.Vito says:

    “Pence = priceless credibility for Trump with evangelicals.”

    Yes and no. Trump has gained their political trust by his actions as president and justice appointments. All he would have to do is keep Pence as an advisor.

  94. Tina says:

    Hugh,

    Those were all trumps approval ratings.
    55 percent in Florida,
    52 in Nevada
    54 in Arizona,

    All up from 2016

    Schweikart and Barris were he sources.

  95. Hugh says:

    Thx tina I know you abbreviate so half the time I have no idea what you are saying

  96. Tgca says:

    88

    Speling and punkshuwayshin is inportent so dont critisize it. I had a grate engwish teecher in Newark NJ who stresed the inportense of spelingand speeking. She sed if you want respekt you must lurn to comunikate propperly. Dat leson has stuk wit me my hole life.

  97. Tgca says:

    Ciento!

  98. Tina says:

    Heller may have been the source for the Nevada numbers.
    I linked to those numbers in another thread.

  99. Phil says:

    Tina,

    Local Law enforcement is concerned about crowd control and security at the Monday Houston event. Further concerning is a threat to hold a simultaneous Beto rally a few blocks away. Would not be a very good mix.

  100. Tina says:

    A nightmare too for the Secret Service, Phil.

  101. ReadyFirst says:

    99. That was funny.

  102. MichiganGuy says:

    Missouri Senate
    .
    Hawley 47%
    McCaskill 46%
    Campbell: 2%
    Crain: 1%
    O’Dear: 1%
    Undecided: 2%
    .
    Remington Research Group
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bcb2413b208fc5920b41578/1540039701680/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+-+10.19.18.pdf

  103. Albert Hodges says:

    Haley not only announced she would NOT be running in 2020 but also that she would be working to re-elect President Trump.

    Sorry, NeverTrumpers, your wish isn’t coming true…hold out for Mittens/Ryan’s second act…better chance of that….except this time DOOMED TO FAIL before they even start it!

    Pompeo/Zinke 2024!

  104. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:38 am
    “Would be pretty smart to then write another one saying she didn’t, right?”
    No. Because the moment she runs for President, she will be revealed as the op-ed writer.
    This is just silly.

    – Revealed by whom? The editors with whom she, hypothetically, had a privacy deal? Given the trouble the press has these days, I doubt they’d ever renege on a confidentiality deal.

    I don’t think she wrote the op-ed regardless. Someone in her office might have written it with her knowledge, but that seems a stretch as well.

  105. Wes says:

    The RRH “Republicans” are really committed to predictions:

    They have exactly 0 flips in their Senate rankings, instead just showing a bunch of Tossups.

  106. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:42 am
    “Pence = priceless credibility for Trump with evangelicals.”
    Yes and no. Trump has gained their political trust by his actions as president and justice appointments. All he would have to do is keep Pence as an advisor.

    – I agree. Trump no longer needs Pence to gain the support of evangelicals. He’s won their support himself over the last two years.

  107. MichiganGuy says:

    Arizona Senate
    .
    McSally 48%
    Sinema 46%
    .
    NY Times/Siena
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-azsen-3.html

  108. Wes says:

    My mistake. They actually do think ND will flip.

  109. Wes says:

    This is the end of their write up on ND:

    we now consider this race slightly but significantly more likely than not to flip to Republicans.

    Talk about trying to have it every possible way.

  110. mnw says:

    MG 105

    MO SEN:

    The last Mo Scout Remington poll had Hawley (R) +2. Now it’s Hawley +1. That’s certainly counterintuitive.

    The PIV is GOP +5. Sounds a little low for a state Trump won by +18, doesn’t it? They’ve got the AA vote at 9%, which sounds right. They have considerably more women than men in the sample– about 4% more. Maybe. Men do die younger.

    Only CNN has shown McCaskill with a lead (+3%) in the last month, per the polls RCP includes.

    Be interested to know what the early votes tell us. Schweikart will tell us, when that data becomes available.

  111. Mr.Vito says:

    “Revealed by whom? The editors with whom she, hypothetically, had a privacy deal?”

    Yeah sure… the New York Times is going to protect the privacy of a Republican candidate. Good one.

  112. mnw says:

    112

    The Wise Men also imply that MO will flip, if you read all the way down to the fine print.

    They don’t sound very bullish on Sinema, either– “still a slight favorite due to her early start.” WTF?

    NYT has a column by a leftist azalea today: “What If the GOP Wins Everything Again?” The article itself is disgusting drivel (like something Vichey or core-eee wrote), but… wobbly now.

    Trump in NV today, btw. I was surprised that in last hight’s debate with Heller, Rosen mentioned Russian collusion. First DEM I’ve heard mention THAT for a long time– unless asked a direct question. Rosen brought it up all by herself, unassisted.

  113. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 20, 2018 at 1:28 pm
    “Revealed by whom? The editors with whom she, hypothetically, had a privacy deal?”

    Yeah sure… the New York Times is going to protect the privacy of a Republican candidate. Good one.

    – They’d never do that because they’d then have no way credibly promise anonymity to anyone else in the future.

  114. Hugh says:

    What was party affiliation in Missouri in 16 and 14. Would have helped if they asked who the respondents voted for president in 16. I think this poll is wrong. In the down ballot race the republican is doing even worse than Hawley in a republican state. Makes no sense.

  115. jason says:

    I voted in person on Thursday, straight R ballot.

    In PA you can’t vote early, but you can go to the county election bureau, and they will give you a ballot and take you to a room with polling booths. After you fill out the ballot you put it in an envelope and return it to the clerk.

    I would call it voting absentee in person.

  116. Mr.Vito says:

    “They’d never do that because they’d then have no way credibly promise anonymity to anyone else in the future.”

    Of course they will. Anyone who is loyal to their ideology.. just like this person… who is clearly NOT Nikki Haley… and won’t have to worry about it.

    Now we can get back to discussing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin…

  117. Florida Guy says:

    McSally +2

    Ya, dawg!

  118. jason says:

    I note Amoral Scumbag is still moving goalposts.

    He has graduated from “typo” to “spelling mistake” regarding his ignorance of how to spell Vichy.

    Spelling mistake is closer to the truth, so we are making progress.

  119. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag now says he does not expect Haley to run.

    However, he is…. drum roll…

    “I’m all onboard for Nikki Haley, whether it’s in 2020 or 2024,…”

    He is all onboard on a train that is not leaving the station.

    As usual.

  120. jason says:

    florida guy… is that the same florida guy from eons past?

  121. jason says:

    Someone in her office might have written it with her knowledge, but that seems a stretch as well.”

    So why are you still talking about it?

    Amoral Scumbag wants everyone to know he keeps talking about Haley writing the op-ed because he doesn’t think she wrote the op-ed.

  122. Mr.Vito says:

    Hey, Phil, Culberson is up 2 now because he’s now leading men by 5. The poll is really heavily weighted at the moment… so expect some jumping around.

  123. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena closed up shop on the WA-3 poll.

    Herrera-Buetler 48
    Dem woman 41

  124. lisab says:

    You guys can change this by election day, but how about we each predict s surprise result for the 2018 election, it can be a D or R surprise.
    —————————–

    well idaho could be an election day surprise …

    oh wait … that was robbie’s prediction for hillary in 2016

  125. Mr.Vito says:

    Election Day surprise… Melania announces she’s pregnant.

  126. sandiegocitizen says:

    When Robbie makes comments about Trump’s second term, you know how much things have changed. A lot of it is because the Democrats have imploded, and have alienated moderate voters.

  127. sandiegocitizen says:

    128. Who’s the father? The Democrats will claim Putin.

  128. Phil says:

    Interesting news about Tx 7, Vito.

  129. sandiegocitizen says:

    Is there a difference between an amoral scumbag and a moral or immoral scumbag?

  130. lisab says:

    Please show me a single post I’ve made that suggests I’m a conservative for Pelosi.
    —————————-

    now that i agree with, i cannot think of one post he’s made that suggests he is a

    conservative

    for pelosi

  131. mnw says:

    Hugh 117

    The GOP candidate for MO state auditor is a terrible candidate– she probably IS losing. She’s been in several stupid controversies as to whether she’s even eligible to run. These stories have been reported extensively in the St. Louis Post-Disgrace, & on local TV.

    I had previously thought Trump & Hawley (maybe) could pull her in, but… she has managed to lose the anonymity that was her greatest asset.

  132. Mr.Vito says:

    Three scumbags are stuck on an island. They have a gun with three bullets and only enough rations for one of them to survive before help comes.

    The moral scumbag shoots the other two and turns the gun on himself.

    The immoral scumbag shoots the other two and uses the rations.

    The amoral scumbag takes three shots at a sand drawing he makes of Donald Trump and they all starve to death.

  133. mnw says:

    Hi, Hugh

    jason

    I like Wendy Rogers (R) as my surprise to flip AZ-01 & defeat the incumbent DEM O’Hallaren.

    I base this on nothing, except: two internal Rogers polls, & my evaluation of Rogers as an unusually appealing candidate.

    Rogers MIGHT get coattails form Ducey & McSally. Trump carried the district narrowly in ’16 while O’Hallaren won by +7. The PVI is R+2.
    The DCCC has been spending heavily to attack Rogers, fwiw.

    (Btw, I gave up on Houseley in MN SEN-B because she once compared Michelle Obama to an ape. Prior to that, I had liked her as a surprise GOP pickup.)

  134. Wobbles says:

    My surprise is Jeb! wins as a write-in for Zephyr Hills, FL dog catcher.

  135. jason says:

    I think before the Amoral Scumbag starves to death he builds a sand Moai for Jeb!

  136. DW says:

    138 – Please clap!

  137. jason says:

    Good evening.

  138. jason says:

    because she once compared Michelle Obama to an ape.”

    Really?

    Or is this like a DeSantis kind of thing.

  139. mnw says:

    jason

    No, it was pretty awful. I’m done. She said Michelle’s posture was as bad as an ape’s, essentially. That was about 5-6 years ago, in some email, but… endgame.

  140. Wes says:

    Mnw, Rogers May be a good candidate, but I don’t know if she’s “unusually appealing.” Dems can label her as a carpetbagger since she hails from Sinema’s district originally.

    By the way, Sinema won her race against Rogers in 2014 by double digits despite having won with only a four-point plurality in 2012.

    Rogers May well win, but realistically her electoral history doesn’t suggest particularly great appeal among voters.

  141. DW says:

    Roskam (IL_06) up 5 points, 50/45, in IL_06 Siena poll, but its early. This is a seat I have not given up on in my forecast–even though the toupees all did.

  142. jason says:

    I have the quote, in context.

    “Housley reportedly wrote: “Michelle is soooo far from cool. Don’t we expect our First Ladies to at least stand up straight? (And my dear sister, know the proper etiquette and DO NOT TOUCH THE QUEEN!).”

    She then commented on her own post by saying the chimp in the 1951 Ronald Reagan film “Bedtime for Bonzo” had better posture than Obama.

    “I do miss Nancy Reagan. Ronald even more. Speaking of Bedtime for Bonzo, I think even that chimp stood up straighter than Michelle. Uh-oh, someone is going to make a comment.”

    This was a personal Facebook comment years before she ran for office. If she had made it during the campaign it would be another thing.

    I hardly think it disqualifies her for the Senate. Let’s get real here.

    And btw, Michelle Obama’s posture IS horrendous.

  143. jason says:

    I can see nothing in that comment that is remotely close to calling Michelle a monkey.

    Nada, zero, zilch.

    It’s like if you said Michelle Obama doesn’t throw anything away, like a pack rat.

    OMG, you called her a rat?

  144. jason says:

    Election Day surprise… Melania announces she’s pregnant.”

    I am just thinking what Corey and Amoral Scumbag will come up with to attack Trump on that.

    Maybe, he should have been working in the Oval Office instead of fooling around with Melania.

  145. jason says:

    According to Amy Schumer, white NFL players who don’t kneel must be racist.

    “I wonder why more white players aren’t kneeling,” Schumer wrote on Instagram. “Once you witness the truly deep inequality and endless racism people of color face in our country, not to mention the police brutality and murders. Why not kneel next to your brothers? Otherwise, how are you not complicit?”

    Are the vast majority of black players who don’t kneel racist too?

  146. mnw says:

    jason

    I NEVER SAID Houseley “called her an ape.” YOU DID, King of Strawmen.

    You either see that this is fatal if the DEMs decide to use it, or you don’t.

    An infinitely less offensive comment nearly sank DeSantis in FL,… & MN isn’t FL.

  147. mnw says:

    WA-03

    Siena has completed this poll now. Shows Herrera Beutler (R) +7 on the DEM.

  148. mnw says:

    WA-03 was never considered in play. Who knows why Siena polls (& re-polls) where it does.

  149. Blobbie says:

    Election Day surprise
    —————-

    I am not predicting it

    But I think it is possible that Melania will divorce Trump and marry Nikki Haley who will then run against Trump in 2020

  150. lisab says:

    Single clap rings out as Ocasio-Cortez compares global warming ‘existential threat’ to Nazism

  151. DW says:

    I was starting to get concerned about the Siena VA_05 poll as the Republican has been down 1 point for a while, but then I noticed their sample is 58% women / 42% men.

  152. lisab says:

    Legal Experts: Ivanka Trump May Have Committed Felony Fraud

    submit to reddit

    Ivanka Trump misrepresented the sales figures of various Trump-branded properties around the world on multiple occasions over the past decade, according to a lengthy exposé released late Wednesday by public interest news organization ProPublica in conjunction with Manhattan public radio station WNYC.

    Those real estate-related misrepresentations were almost certainly criminal according to legal experts surveyed by Law&Crime.

  153. Test says:

    150 What?

  154. jason says:

    because she once compared Michelle Obama to an ape.”

    Direct quote.

    She did not compare Michelle to an ape.

    “You either see that this is fatal if the DEMs decide to use it, or you don’t.”

    I don’t. If you consider every MSM distortion of anything Rs says, you won’t have any candidates.

    I wouldn’t give up on a candidate who said 6 years ago in a private post that Michelle Obama had worse posture than Bozo.

  155. Tina says:

    John Cardillo
    @johncardillo
    12m
    An unhinged leftist followed @RepMaxineWaters orders and threatened @senatemajldr and his wife while they were having dinner. youtu.be/VhboULQNd3M
    View details ·

  156. DW says:

    160 – and if that sort of behavior helps the GOP hold the house and make great gains in the senate, then these “unhinged leftists” will turn out to be collaborating Russians who acted like unhinged leftists to throw the election to the GOP.

  157. Hugh says:

    Early voting in tn looks great. I’m thinking republicans are energized and dems not so much perhaps a bit demoralized due to Kavanaugh getting on the Supreme Court.

  158. Scooby77 says:

    Anyone follow Ralston, out of Nevada? He’s saying the numbers out of normally Republican Washoe County actually lean to Dems. Also said it was a great day in Clark County.

    I’m hoping Schweikert has some info to the contrary. Heller destroyed Rosen in the debate, but the Dem machine that Harry Reid created is a hell of a thing.

  159. Scooby77 says:

    “Dems performing 7 points above reg numbers.”

    “Dems had big day in Washoe (Reno), where GOP has 2 percent reg edge. About even after absentees counted, but good sign for Dems.”

    Per Ralston. Seems like Nevada is the only bad intel we’re getting, not sure.

  160. Hugh says:

    In Nevada the dems always lead early voting. In 16 they led by huge margins when early voting ended and led in Washoe county. It’s the first day of early voting. Nothing to see at least for now.

  161. MichiganGuy says:

    Nevada final registration #’s.
    .
    Democrats…598,174
    Republicans.523,251
    Independent..67,644
    Libertarian..15,588
    Nonpartisan.342,055
    Other……..14,216
    .
    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5920

  162. Phil says:

    Democrats killed it in early voting in 2016 and it cost us the state. We will have to do better to hold that seat. Seven points ahead of regular numbers is a lot.

  163. Hugh says:

    First day of early voting in Nevada in 16 they outperformed registration by 9%. Also trump is more popular in Nevada now than in 2016.

  164. Phil says:

    Good catch, Hugh.

  165. Hugh says:

    Phil. I’m on it. And go Purdue

  166. michael corleone says:

    Hugh what is your source? Ralston says they are 7 points ahead in washoe alone. If the 9% for 2016 is statewide, that doesn’t tell us much.

  167. Cash Cow TM says:

    The last 3 days have been awful as I watched Walt try to cut out and replace two damaged tile in the laundry room and install a threshold at the door between the laundry room and garage.

    The vinyl tiles were what Walt put down 3 or 4 years ago that come in sections of 3 that go overtop the existing tile floor.

    Problem was Walt did not make sure the coating of sealer over the OLD tile was level…and there was a high spot, so opening and closing the laundry door scraped and damaged two tile…

    Rummage around to see if he had any left over…cut out two singles of the new leftovers…cut out the damaged ones…chisel off some of the concrete like sealer…new tiles he cut out did not fit perzactly…take up and trim…looks like crap…run to store to get glue to hold new tiles and a threshold…cut and install threshold…door won’t close…take door off and on about 6 times…realizes the threshold it wrong type…all the work on the threshold caused replaced glued tile to come loose, reglue them…back to the store to get another threshold,…etc, etc, etc,

    THREE DAYS OF THIS!

    It was sad to watch.
    soured my milk.
    ****************************
    Made Walt VERY. VERY grumpy.
    You would not believe the words he used…

  168. Hugh says:

    Btw. Ralston site is almost impossible to decifer but I think it says they are outperforming Washoe County by 7% over registration. Nevada was close in 16. I think heller will be fine.

  169. Cash Cow TM says:

    Our town had its big Apple Harvest festival today.

    Manchin was in it, riding on back of an antique fire truck.

    Morrisey was in it also, riding in a convertible.

    Where I was watching the parade, crowd response to both was scant. Manchin got a little more lukewarm response than did Morrisey–who is from this part of the state (next country east).

    Not sure what this means.

    I do know that most teachers and retired teachers say they are voting for Manchin…(ugh)…

  170. Cash Cow TM says:

    In NV is Heller running against Highwater?

    Heller / Highwater….

    🙂

  171. michael corleone says:

    Hugh I think you are right re Washoe day one. Ds had 51% vote share in 2016 on day 1 and it looks like 49% today (in person only).

  172. Bitterlaw says:

    Schumer probably gave Manchin a free pass to vote for Kavanaugh once it became obvious he would make it. Bipartisan, you know.

  173. mnw says:

    Schweikart has nothing on NV yet.

  174. Scooby77 says:

    Ralston’s all giddy: “Been watching early voting a long time and I don’t think I have ever seen Dems win Washoe by 15 points — 49-34. It’s NV’s swing county, GOP has 2 percent edge. It’s only one day, we still need to see Clark. But that is a bad omen for Repubs.”

    Man I hope he’s wrong. Smug mf’er.

  175. Cash Cow TM says:

    VP Pence was campaigning for Morrisey today in Clarksburg.
    Only drew a crowd of several hundred…

    Kim Guilfoyle also was here / or is coming here to help Morrisey…

  176. MichiganGuy says:

    Nevada Early Voting
    .
    In person:
    .
    Democrats…4,185
    Republicans.3,897
    Other…….1,609
    .
    Mail-in Ballots:
    .
    Republicans.3,441
    Democrats…1,842
    Other…….1.063
    .
    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

  177. Cash Cow TM says:

    Maybe Barbara Comstock went up in polls due to her very good ad she has had up recently.

    It shows a young woman who was an intern in Congress who says her congressman wanted her to come to his apartment late at night to “discuss her internship grant”…she refused, her grant disappeared.

    She turned to Comstock who got legislation passed to prevent such shenanigans in the future, etc.

  178. Cash Cow TM says:

    Bitter,

    I am not sure Manchin voting for Kavanaugh hurt him more among Ds who disturst Manchin’s conservative ways and will refuse to vote for Manchin this time, or helped him among fence sitting indys who now might vote for Manchin due to his Kav vote.

  179. sane_voter says:

    @166

    Oct 2016 in Nevada, D’s had an 88,800 voter edge over R’s. Based on your numbers the D registration lead has gone down 14,000 in the last two years.

  180. michael corleone says:

    Ralston is a clown. The Dem voting edge statewide is down and Rs performed better today in Washoe than on day 1 in 2016. Ralston essentially called the race in 2016 after early voting before a single vote was counted and trump barely lost the state by 2.5%.

  181. mnw says:

    Walt

    1) Where r u seeing Comstock up in polls? I know she released an internal that showed that. Does sounds like a good ad, btw.

    2) I thought the Manchin campaign event where he brought Jerry West, Lou Saban, & the Mountaineers BB coach together to endorse Manchin was quite ingenious. I like the concept a lot.

    3) Gov. Justice had to get rid of his yellow raincoat. Too many people were yelling, “Taxi!”

  182. mnw says:

    187 corleone

    I’ve always detested Ralston. I thought he was (is?) Harry Reid’s buttboy. He does have a big reputation, rightly or wrongly, for shrewd analysis of NV politics, though.

  183. michael corleone says:

    His analysis is just factually wrong.

  184. Bitterlaw says:

    Cash Cow – You are a wise analyst. I understand why Walt let you run his campaigns.

    I would not be shocked If Murkowski also got a free pass from McConnell . Flake and Collins sealed the outcome. Both parties could play the fake bipartisan game. I think Murk survives a primary challenge ne t time. If not, she can just win again as. Republican incumbent with a write-in campaign.

  185. dblaikie says:

    You all need to relax about Nevada. Ralston is a Dem. hack. Today in the Silver State there was 14676 early votes and a. ballots. The GOP has 7338 and the Dems ha 6027. The rest are Ind. who in Nevada tend to be on the conservative side of things.

    The main worry in Nevada is not the early vote, it is the bused in vote both early and on election. Harry Reid will deny it, but a lot of that bused in vote comes from California (if you live there you know this is true). The rest of the bused in vote is from Culinary Workers who cover every non administrative job in the Casino Industry. That was Harry Reid’s debt card for votes. We will see if it still is operative now that he is retired.

  186. MichiganGuy says:

    #186 sane_voter, those aren’t my #’s; those are Nevada’s SOS #’s. Keep in mine those are active voters #’s not total voter #’s.

  187. Bitterlaw says:

    Good to see MC hating something besides gays. I’m sure Michael, Tgca and San Diego Citizen will appreciate that.

  188. dblaikie says:

    Early voting percentage in Clark County was 42% Dems. 31% GOP. Dems will have to do alot better to offset the GOP Northern Nevada vote.

  189. MichiganGuy says:

    #193 s/b mind not mine lol

  190. michael corleone says:

    Dblaikee – Where are you getting those #’s? Is that today?

  191. MichiganGuy says:

    #197 He got them from post#183

  192. dblaikie says:

    Here is the link: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

    I combined early votes and a. votes. Yes it is today. The percentages on the Clark County vote is here: https://twitter.com/ConnieMunkNV/status/1051884919247400960

  193. dblaikie says:

    Actually I was going to post the link when I saw that Michigan Guy had already done so.

  194. sane_voter says:

    In 2016 Early voting in Washoe:

    First Two days: D 50% R 33%
    First week: D 43% R 38%

    Ds crushed the first couple of days, then came back to earth.

  195. MichiganGuy says:

    #195 DB, those #’s are from 2016.

  196. sane_voter says:

    Overall, 2018 day 1 early voting in Washoe is up 75% compared to 2014, but down 27% compared to 2016.

    2014 3939
    2016 9429
    2018 6917

  197. sandiegocitizen says:

    191. Bitter, I can see why Manchin needed a free pass, but why Murkowski? She was not up for election in 2018, and is from a conservative state. The reason she won as a write in last time was she had an extreme opponent. If she loses in the primary to a mainstream conservative Republican, she’s history. Agree the Kavanaugh vote may not matter by the time she is up for re-election.

  198. michael corleone says:

    Some math.

    Day 1 early vote in Washoe 2016 (per Ralston’s blog – see 173 above)

    In person only: 51% D 32.6% R = D edge of 18.4%
    In person + VBM: 45.1% D 37.4% R = D edge of 7.7%

    Day 1 early vote Washoe today

    In person only: 49.13% D 34.19% R = D edge of 15.12%
    In person + VBM: 44.21% D 39.28% R = D edge of 4.93%

    Summing up – the in person D edge decreased by 3.28% and the In person + VBM D edge decreased by 2.77%.

    HRC won the state by 2.42%.

    Looking good for Heller.

  199. sandiegocitizen says:

    My feeling is something about Kavanaugh rubbed Murkowski the wrong way. He did come across as having been a brash young male in college who was a partier. Many women do not have a fond recollection of this type of young male.

  200. Mr.Vito says:

    Here is what I got from those Nevada numbers…

    If you add the 9 counties that have returns:

    The GOP has a 9.00% registration advantage in those counties
    .
    The GOP EV+MAIL today was GOP advantage of 8.18%.

    What am I missing? He is only interested in Washoe and only in the ev without absentees?

  201. michael corleone says:

    Dem voting edge down substantially in Clark from day 1 2017 too. Ralston is reporting first results.

  202. MichiganGuy says:

    #206 I think Murkowski voted no (present) on Kavanaugh had more to do with Alaska’s Natives.
    .
    https://newsmaven.io/indiancountrytoday/news/are-native-issues-enough-to-sink-brett-kavanaugh-s-supreme-court-nomination-k4vV0nZt9EanR1Dggxs5lw/

  203. Mr.Vito says:

    I downloaded the delimited files from the Clark County Site, and imported into spreadsheets.

    I’m getting a 10.2 advantage for Dems in Clark for EV+ABSENTEES. (14.7 advantage for EV alone)

    And getting their reg advantage as 12.5.

  204. Mr.Vito says:

    So overall, out of those nine counties plus Clark…

    Registration edge: D+7.1
    EarlyVote+Absentees: D+4.8

    By my numbers… (if I didn’t err)

    Clark EV: 14538 D to 10109 R
    Clark ABS: 3353 D to 3827 R

    Total Clark EV: 30068
    Total Clark ABS: 8632

  205. Mr.Vito says:

    A little more fun with these numbers…

    Plugging this banked vote from the 10 counties into the Siena/NYT crosstabs by party reg. would yield

    Rosen: 46.9
    Heller: 45.0
    with the remainder unknown

  206. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, exits had Nevada D+8 by PID in 2016.

  207. Tgca says:

    Dos cientos y catorce!

  208. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Missouri Scout/ Remington Poll of the Missouri Senate race shows Republican Hawley +1. He cannot shake Fatso McCaskill!

    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/5bcb2413b208fc5920b41578/1540039701680/MOScout+Weekly+Poll+-+10.19.18.pdf

  209. MichiganGuy says:

    Sheeple, you’re a little late on that poll. Check post #105

  210. MichiganGuy says:

    Minnesota Governor
    .
    Walz (D) 45%
    Johnson (R) 39%
    Other 4%
    Undecided 12%
    .
    Mason-Dixon Polling
    http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-governor-s-race-poll-star-tribune-mpr-news-tim-walz-jeff-johnson/497958991/

  211. MichiganGuy says:

    Washington #3
    .
    Herrera Beutler (R) 48
    Long (D) 41%
    .
    NY Times/Siena Poll
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-wa03-3.html

  212. John says:

    Why is it that Vin Scully retires and then the Dodgers go back to the World Series for two World Series?

  213. Bitterlaw says:

    Great. My 4th most hated baseball team (Dodgers) is playing my most hated team (Red Sox). Since the World Series can’t end in a tie, I hope LA wins.

  214. DW says:

    Bitter–at least you didn’t wake up to find Obama still president.

  215. EML says:

    Updated Florida early vote. Republican lead up to 52,000

    Republican 406,118
    Democrat 354,056
    Other 4,905
    Independent 158,573

  216. Skippy says:

    #222

    Florida VBM current 2018 numbers.
    Republicans 43.97%
    Democrats 38.33%

    Florida VBM 2014 numbers.
    Republicans 44.38%
    Democrats 37.58%

    Republican’s percentage continues to drop little by little while Democrats number ticks upwards over the last few days.

    I don’t think the 2018 numbers have to equal the 2014 numbers to believe there might not be a big blue wave…but let’s be honest…if this trend line continues until Election Day these VBM numbers won’t be looking very good.

  217. hugh says:

    222 and 223. As long republican stay competitive with absentees they should be in pretty good shape. first they will have some leakage from the panhandle. I doubt if I grabbed my early voting ballot as I ran out of my house. Most importantly in the big three dem counties the EV is only a week long this time versus 2 weeks in 2014. Only one souls to the polls day this time around. The vast majority of dems vote early in those counties, particularly broward. It will be harder for them to organize with only a week for the EV. My big concern is getting the panhandle vote in. Rick Scott has already decided to keep early voting going until election day for the panhandle, but if you there is no electricity I am not sure what that means.

  218. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #223
    Your pessimism is ridiculous. Rounding the numbers for 2014 and 2018 gives us 44(R) and 38(D)in both years.
    Also, although Palm Beach County has not reported its absentee receipts since October 19th, a number of Republican- rich Counties in the Panhandle are behind, including one which has not reported since the 16th.
    You, being a “sky is falling” type may feel at home on RRH.

  219. hugh says:

    Another thing to keep in mind in FL is whether the actual vote spread is higher than in 2014. In florida unlike many states a big part of the absentee vote will be snowbirds claiming residence in FL who usually return after Christmas from up north and military. If they did not return a ballot it generally means they did not vote. Its not like EV where if they miss the window they can still vote in person. I am not sure if the spread is greater or not.

  220. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    I have read the comments about Nevada’s early voting data and share Mr. Vito’s and db’s puzzlement about why NV political guru,Jon Ralston, is so giddy about the results boding well for the Democrats.
    It appears that he is looking only at early in-person voting in the various Counties and has brushed aside the mail-in absentee voting, that although in smaller numbers, the GOP is killing especially in Clark and Washoe Counties.

  221. Skippy says:

    I’m just stating numbers. I’m not being pessimistic..I just don’t want us to avoid factual data. Look at the current Hillsborough numbers. There is some weakness in comparison to the 2014 numbers. But again, we shall see as the days go on.

  222. jason says:

    Democrats…598,174
    Republicans.523,251
    Independent..67,644
    Libertarian..15,588
    Nonpartisan.342,055
    Other……..14,216″

    What’s the difference between independent and non-partisan?

  223. jason says:

    “I’m just stating numbers. I’m not being pessimistic.’

    Not really.

    You are being pessimistic and you are not just stating numbers.

    But you can always admit and tell the critics to GFTs.

  224. jason says:

    Too much scrapple and not enough coffee.

    “admit it”

  225. Waingro says:

    Brace yourself for some ? polls.

    This morning on @MeetThePress, we’ve got brand new @NBCNews
    /@WSJ poll numbers for you. I’ll also be joined by @DickDurbin and @SenThomTillis.

    PLUS: Anthony @Scaramucci on what it was like to work in the Trump White House.

    #IfItsSunday #MTP

    https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1053995087833845760?s=21

  226. EML says:

    223 – what a turd of a post. The whole point of 2018 is that Democratic anger and enthusiasm is supposed to be sky high, leading to a blue wave and a takeover of the House. The early vote numbers in every single state where we have data does not support this. Republican voting rates are higher than Dems across the board.

  227. Hugh says:

    Ugh. More rescue polls on the way

  228. mnw says:

    Still nothing from Larry Schweickart on NV, or anything else new. I think he pretty much takes off from COB on Saturday until Mon. AM.

    WaRo regular columnist Sean Sullivan goes wobbly*: “House Dem Hopes For Wave Election Diminish As Republicans Rebound” Man, you should see the comments at WaPo! It’s like Sullivan has been caught torturing their family dog. It gives me a sense of just how full of hate those folks are. Mostly women posters, too.

    *emulating Cook & Silver

  229. Skippy says:

    Chill out. Relax. I’m not saying the numbers are devastating. I’m just following and commenting on the current trend line in Florida.

    If the trend line reverses itself I will be stating it as well.

    Everyone is jumpy this morning.

  230. jason says:

    I would rather watch reruns of Mr. Ed than Meet the Press.

  231. jason says:

    Who the hell is jumpy?

    GFY.

  232. EML says:

    The trendline in Florida is that Republicans are increasing their lead in the absolute vote by the day. Returned ballots by percentage sent out is an irrelevant metric. All it shows is Democratic enthusiasm lags Republicans.

  233. jason says:

    “I’m just following and commenting”

    Ahh, goalposts are moving.

    That is more honest than “I’m just statimg numbers”.

    See how easy it is?

  234. Waingro says:

    #232: that should read as: “garbage polls”.

  235. jason says:

    EML is correct.

    If you start out with a 10% lead which represents 100k votes and you end up with a 5% lead representing 150k votes you can either whine about losing half the percentage lead or celebrate that you are ahead by 150k votes.

  236. mnw says:

    WaPO/NBC Polls

    Among LVs:

    GCB D+8 (was D+7)

    Trump JA -7

  237. jason says:

    Tragedy at Indianapolis zoo.

    Three little lion cubs will grow up without a father.

    “CNNA lioness killed the father of her three cubs at the Indianapolis Zoo this week.

    In a statement Friday, Indianapolis zoo staff said they heard “an unusual amount of roaring” at the lions’ outdoor yard early Monday morning.
    When they arrived, they saw a female lion, Zuri, in a physical confrontation with their adult male lion, Nyack.
    “Zoo personnel made every effort to separate the lions, but Zuri held Nyack by the neck until he stopped moving,” the zoo said in a statement.

    Zoo veterinary staff conducted a necropsy on Nyack and found that the 10-year-old male died of suffocation from injuries to the neck.”

  238. Tina says:

    M.Joseph Sheppard
    @SHEPMJS
    Follow
    New Dem meme hatched as #BlueWavering ©SHEPMJS “If GOP hold the House it will be invalid because the Democrat’s will have more popular votes”
    11:17 PM – 20 Oct 2018

  239. mnw says:

    correction to 243:

    sb “GCB D+9 (was D+8)”

  240. Skippy says:

    Jason – EML

    So now percentages don’t mean anything?

    Come on guys.

    Ok, I will play along…so straight vote margin.

    FL VBM

    2018 Republicans +52,000 currently
    2016 Republicans + 59,000
    2014 Republicans +128,000

    Let’s hope the straight vote margin continues to increase in Florida.

  241. jason says:

    I think I know why I am jumpy. My breakfast was a disaster.

    I ran out of slab bacon and had to eat 6 slices of scrapple instead of the usual 3 to compensate.

    I usually have at least 10 lbs of slab bacon in reserve, I don’t know what happened.

    Sorry, Skippy, I just get emotional about slab bacon. A breakfast without it is like a field without llamas. Sad.

  242. Wes says:

    That’s becoming a go-to Dem meme, Tina. They’re trying to say the Kavanaugh vote was invalid because Dem Senators represent more people than Republicans. That’s patently absurd because the Senate is not a proportional body, but I guess Dems had to find some way to invalidate the vote after losing it.

  243. Hugh says:

    Wapo nbc looking to be embarrassed again.

  244. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    mnw
    Actually, you were right and wrong. NBC’s last poll was a registered voter poll and the GCB was D+8 compared to today’s D+7 among RV’s.
    Today was the first Likely Voter poll produced by the pollster in this election cycle; D+9 with a PID of D+5. Remember that Democrats have “voter sinks” in urban centers. The fight will be for the suburban vote.

  245. Todd McCain says:

    The VBM has been increasing 1-3000 votes a day in the GOP’s favor.

  246. jason says:

    Jason – EML

    So now percentages don’t mean anything?”

    Exactly.

    What matters is the absolute numbers.

    They can continue to grow even if the percentage shrinks.

    You should be able to understand why that is.

  247. Hugh says:

    The key to skewing a generic poll is choosing what independents to poll.

  248. Scooby77 says:

    And Larry Schweikert does nothing to allay our fears about Nevada, which seems to be the one outlier to mostly good news of late:

    “Despite Elko, the absentee #s in NV are not looking good. This is the VERY FIRST observation out of maybe 30 at state & county level that did not indicate a “red wave.””

  249. jason says:

    mnw
    Actually, you were right and wrong.”

    What was the percentage?

  250. jason says:

    Scooby?

    Are you from around here?

  251. Scooby77 says:

    Jason,

    Where’s “here”?

  252. Todd McCain says:

    Poll after poll is indicating Trump approval rising just at the right time which is without question helpful in these pivotal districts. NV EV numbers are concerning; was hoping Heller would pull this one out.

  253. jason says:

    Ralston is a dishonest spokesman for the Dems.

    He always predicts Dems will win, no matter what.

  254. Scooby77 says:

    I drop in every 2 years or so, before the elections. Fair weather, in some respects. Active duty, lived everywhere. Vote in TX-23, Will Hurd’s district.

  255. Wes says:

    Incorrect, Jason. Ralston hit the panic button in 2014.

  256. Mr.Vito says:

    Did anyone find a mistake in my NV numbers?

    It showed Dems running about 2.5 points behind their registration in total EV+VBM that has come in.

  257. Todd McCain says:

    Ralston is def left leaning but he is def also the dean of NV politics and if he’s saying the numbers aren’t good for us, it’s concerning.

  258. Mr.Vito says:

    “the absentee #s in NV are not looking good.”

    Did he mean early votes? The GOP is crushing the absentee vote.

  259. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    I remail baffled by the analyses of the Nevada early vote after yesterday’s results si I dug into the actual ballots returnrd. To wit:

    (a) Democrats- 17,891 in-person and mail-in in Clark County plus in the rest of the State including Washoe at 6,027 in- person and mail-in for a total of 23,918.

    (b) Republicans- 13,936 in Clark County plus 7338 in the rest of the State for a total of 21,274.

    DIFFERENCE- Dem. + 2,644

    Of Note:
    (1)The above numbers exclude about 10 small Nevada Counties including Elko, which are very Red.
    (2) The above numbers exclude Independents, who in Nevada, are Clive Bundy types.

    So why is Schweik hart so pessimistic about NV? I suspect that he has not looked at the mail-in votes.

    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

  260. Mr.Vito says:

    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

    Absentee vote
    GOP 54%
    Dem 29%

    and also leading in Clark county that isn’t listed there yet.

  261. Mr.Vito says:

    ” (a) Democrats- 17,891 in-person and mail-in in Clark County plus in the rest of the State including Washoe at 6,027 in- person and mail-in for a total of 23,918.

    (b) Republicans- 13,936 in Clark County plus 7338 in the rest of the State for a total of 21,274.”

    …………………………..

    Those are exactly the the two totals I calculated last night.

    That would mean the GOP is overperforming registration by 2.3%

  262. Mr.Vito says:

    So is that bad?

  263. Hugh says:

    Eventually the EV will swamp the absentee voting

  264. Mr.Vito says:

    Josh Jordan
    ?Verified account @NumbersMuncher
    24m24 minutes ago

    NBC/WSJ Poll – Which party do you trust on the issues?

    Looking out for middle class: D+8 (lowest Dem lead in poll history)
    Dealing with economy: R+15 (biggest GOP lead in poll history)
    Health care: D+18 (ties biggest Dem lead since 2008)
    Protecting America with trade: R+17

    Josh Jordan
    ?Verified account @NumbersMuncher
    26m26 minutes ago

    NBC/WSJ Poll: 36% of voters have a positive view of Republicans compared to 35% who say the same of Democrats.

    That is something you’d never know watching the news these days.

  265. jason says:

    Ralston is a far left partisan hack. Dean of NV politics my ass.

    He will always interpret any data in the most favorable light to the Dems. Same as Nate Silverhack who is considered the “Dean of polling analysts”.

    Anyone who believes anything he says is a fool.

  266. jason says:

    Health care: D+18 (ties biggest Dem lead since 2008)
    Protecting America with trade: R+17″

    PT Barnum was certainly right.

    Both those numbers show how people are easily manipulated.

    They actually believe Dems are on their side on healthcare and that Trump’s trade wars are “protecting America”.

  267. jason says:

    So is that bad?”

    Catastrophic according to Ralston.

  268. Mr.Vito says:

    “Eventually the EV will swamp the absentee voting”

    Will it?

    The GOP already returned more ballots in Douglas than in the entire first week of 2016.

  269. mnw says:

    HHR cites a new FL SEN & GOV poll from CNN, which is “embargoed” until 2pm EST:

    Nelson +5
    Gillum +12

  270. Todd McCain says:

    Not everything is good news for the GOP and you can’t paint everything that way.

  271. mnw says:

    277 sb “RRH” not HHR

  272. Mr.Vito says:

    “Not everything is good news for the GOP and you can’t paint everything that way.”

    I asked if that was bad.

    Do you have an actual answer? I didn’t “paint” anything.

  273. Mr.Vito says:

    Let alone everything…

  274. hugh says:

    CNN enough said. there will be a lot more of this coming. I just gave 1k to Scott and 1k to desantis. Im all in. need to pick three more races. Im thinking Montana AZ and IN.

  275. Tina says:

    I paint everything bad for the Gop.

    -Jebot

  276. jason says:

    Incorrect, Jason. Ralston hit the panic button in 2014.”

    Zzzzzzz….cya.

    In 2016 he proclaimed the election “over” based on the early vote, and then had to sweat it out all night long as Hillary squeaked through by 2 points.

  277. Waingro says:

    #277, I can smell the garbage from here.

  278. Scooby77 says:

    Hugh,

    Definitely Arizona. I still can’t believe McSally isn’t blanketing the airwaves with Sinema’s own words, supporting Taliban, wives leeching off their husbands, etc. Scorched earth/Operation LINEBACKER time. People are voting.

  279. jason says:

    “Not everything is good news for the GOP and you can’t paint everything that way.”

    My God that is brilliant analysis.

    Did you come up with that yourself or did you have help?

  280. mnw says:

    The CNN FL poll was done by SSRS. I went to the source, & those ARE the numbers they will report at 2pm.

    This poll, obviously, purports to detect something no other poll has found, so far.

    Hugh

    Good choices, indeed.

    I’m only giving to Hawley now, myself. Staying close to home.

  281. jason says:

    HHR cites a new FL SEN & GOV poll from CNN, which is “embargoed” until 2pm EST”

    I credit the Bitter/jason administration for the fact HHR is at the forefront of polling data.

    No offense to Governor Vito of course.

  282. Todd McCain says:

    At this point, we should be looking at the VBM and early voting daily stats that come out. Those numbers seems ridiculous but we shouldn’t just completely discount it.

  283. Hugh says:

    Oh cnn is using the same pollster who gave us the plus 13 generic poll. Good thing watches cnn anymore

  284. jason says:

    If Gillum wins by 12 I will donate $1000 to Amoral Scumbag’s “Pelosi for Speaker” PAC.

  285. Hugh says:

    No one watches

  286. Wobbles says:

    “Those numbers seems ridiculous but we shouldn’t just completely discount it.”

    Todd is correct.

    We shouldn’t be discounting ridiculous numbers.

  287. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, discounting numbers we don’t like! Don’t fall for group think mentality! Like in 2008 when many folks on this site were reweighting polls — that was a good one….

  288. Robbottie says:

    “At this point, we should be looking at the VBM and early voting daily stats that come out.”

    Except from Nevada.

  289. Todd McCain says:

    The +52K number so far looks strong; let’s hope that continues to rise and that the GOP doesn’t get wiped out in the FL EV numbers.

  290. Hugh says:

    Todd. The dems will swamp us in Florida in EV. They always do.

  291. Hugh says:

    It’s to be expected

  292. mnw says:

    PA-07:

    Morning Call has the DEM +7. (48-41)

  293. Mr.Vito says:

    300. Sounds right based on CW, mnw

  294. Scooby77 says:

    Hugh, Todd,

    The one thing that helps a little bit this year is only one day of “Souls to the Polls.”

    The thing that couldn’t have been planned for is the hurricane going through the panhandle, easily the most GOP-friendly section of the state. I hope that doesn’t end up being the difference.

  295. Mr.Vito says:

    Cook has it lean Dem, and it would be one of the open seats Rollins thought was going to flip.

  296. mnw says:

    301 Vito

    PA-07 is WAY down below DW’s magic line, & is rated either Lean D or Likely D by all of them. So, no surprise.

    Looking at DW’s dashboard, what a fn disaster PA is.

  297. jason says:

    Yes, discounting numbers we don’t like!”

    You called them ridiculous but you like them?

    Okayy…..

  298. jason says:

    The thing that couldn’t have been planned for is the hurricane going through the panhandle, easily the most GOP-friendly section of the state. I hope that doesn’t end up being the difference”

    Rick Scott is the Governor.

    I imagine he will try to to get things up and running as far as voting by Election Day.

  299. jason says:

    Looking at DW’s dashboard, what a fn disaster PA is”

    Elections have consequences.

    The PA SCOTUS is dominated by left wingers who gerrymanded the crap out of the state.

    But remember, Dems are against gerrymandering.

  300. jason says:

    Definitely Arizona. I still can’t believe McSally isn’t blanketing the airwaves with Sinema’s own words, supporting Taliban, wives leeching off their husbands, etc. Scorched earth/Operation LINEBACKER time. People are voting.”

    Why do you think that is.

    Arizona has a ton of retired military that would probably be a great audience for those kind of ads, although I imagine most are voting for McSally anyway.

  301. mnw says:

    AZ-01 (includes Tucson & huge area) has more military than almost any other district. (However, also lots of Indian reservations) I like this one as my surprise D to R flip, altho Wes dissents & makes valid points.

    McSally & Rogers are both pioneering women AF pilots. I can envisage them being a package deal.

  302. Scooby77 says:

    Jason,

    I’m not sure, maybe she is, or is about to blanket the airwaves. Does HHR have a resident Arizonan?

  303. Mr.Vito says:

    Clark and Elko have been added to the SOS site.

    Officially EV+ABS

    43.5 D
    39.0 R

    D+4.5

  304. dblaikie says:

    If CNN comes out with a poll showing Gillum +12 it will only show one thing: how in the tank they are with the Dems.

  305. jason says:

    Don’t fall for group think mentality!”

    LOL

    That’s why I love it here.

    Todd swallows the MSM “the GOP is doomed” meme hook line and sinker but I am the one guilty of group think.

  306. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Ron Dementus is going DOWN! I am so excited to be part of the mega change for justice that will seeep Florida! Go GILLUM!

  307. Just Fill Out the Census says:

    +12? My model has it at +9. Still great for Gillum!

  308. Todd McCain says:

    I don’t fall for sh@t but everything isn’t rosy; I am not all is doom and gloom like Robbie but this is going to be a very tough election

  309. Poul Harris says:

    Like in 2008 when many folks on this site were reweighting polls..”

    Hey, Todd, go jump in that lake I can see from 30k feet.

    My re-weighting of the polls was correct.

    The voters didn’t understand my superior analysis, it’s not my fault they are stupid.

    – Poul Harris

  310. jason says:

    ” but everything isn’t rosy”

    I tell you, you are truly brilliant.

    Come on, fess up, who is helping you with this insightful analysis?

  311. jason says:

    Let’s give Todd the Strawman of the Day Award”, even though it’s early.

    We can use the time to search for the post where anyone here said “everything is rosy”

  312. mnw says:

    RE: post 272 above (NBC/WSJ poll)

    “WSJ poll: DEM advantage has vanished in House districts that matter most, In districts rated as most competitive, the parties are dead even on which one should control Congress. In last month’s poll, among RVs DEMs led by 13 points, and by 6 points among Los.”

    https://twitter.com/johnfund/status/1054041859201339397

  313. mnw says:

    321 sb “by 6 points among LVs”

  314. mnw says:

    The CNN pollster (SSRS) who has Gillum +12 today. & Nelson +3, also recently had Bredesen +3 & Sinema +7, while RCP avgs had both Blackburn & McSally leading.

  315. dblaikie says:

    MNW If you won’t say it I will — ssrs is bogus!

  316. jason says:

    “In districts rated as most competitive, the parties are dead even on which one should control Congress.”

    Hey mnw, stop this group think st-ff.

  317. mnw says:

    https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1054014463559364608

    And Kraushaar is ANYTHING but a GOP cheerleader, that’s for damn sure.

  318. Tgca says:

    What should I have for lunch? Hmmm… Maybe some crispy tofu bacon on top of a pea protein veggie burger with toasted gluten free bread smothered in a nutritious vegan spicy chick pea spread followed by a nut bar and swallowed down with a glass of iced chocolate almond milk. Life is good. 🙂

  319. mnw says:

    MN SEN-B:

    Smith (D) +7 on Houseley (R)

    Red Star* poll

    *”Minnesota Star-Tribune,” if you prefer. Poll is by Mason-Dixon, though.

  320. jason says:

    My lunch is making me forget the breakfast fiasco.

    A big bowl of buttered farfalle smothered with a lamb ragout, slow cooked in red wine, herbs and garlic, washed down with a nice bottle of Rioja Reserva 2012.

    I am thankful, somewhere a poor bastard named Tgca is having a quinoa soufflé and Kombucha tea lunch.

  321. jason says:

    Another poor bastard is probably watching the 3-3 Eagles.

  322. jason says:

    LOL

    I posted my lunch before I saw Tgca’s post.

    Thankfully I was almost finished before I lost my appetite.

  323. Tgca says:

    I think I can get a rise out of Jadon more than any woman ever will. All I gotta do is talk about my daily diet intake. 🙂

  324. jason says:

    ‘tofu bacon on top of a pea protein veggie burger”

    I feel sorry for vegetarians, I really do.

    They crave “bacon” and “burgers”.

    So they eat the fake garbage instead of the real thing. The imitation “bacon” and “burgers” taste like crap.

    Pathetic.

  325. Bitterlaw says:

    That is the 3-3 Defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles to you. GFY.

  326. jason says:

    Tgca is a cruel bastard.

    I see he never did commiserate with me for running out of slab bacon.

    Had he run out of fiddlehead ferns I certainly would have sent him condolences.

  327. jason says:

    Ma, that was pretty good bait.

    It reeled in a Bitterfish, big one too.

  328. mnw says:

    N/T

    But first…

    I saw Halloween (2018) last night. I thought it suxxed but my kids loved it.

  329. Tgca says:

    I was never a fan of fatty meats. Chewy fatty bacon is gross. I only ate very crispy bacon back in the day but it was a bit too salty for my liking. Any meat with fat or grizzle or connected to a bone was not for me. Something about fat and grizzle just gross me out. …and people sucking on bones for every last drop and getting their fingers all greasy. It just seems so uncivilized to me.

  330. lisab says:

    So they eat the fake garbage instead of the real thing.
    ———————–

    this is why i don’t support fake burgers or fake meat of any kind

  331. Tgca says:

    I don’t eat garbage burgers. Not all veggie burgers are the same quality. My burgers are high quality veggies and not soy bean filler.

  332. ReadyFirst says:

    Cold front came in today, it’s down to 80 degrees here in FL, brrrrrrr….. Lots of crazy talk here today.