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Nelson leads By 5%, Gillum Leads By Double Digits in FL

Rather brutal poll from CNN in Florida that not only shows Bill Nelson taking a 5% lead, but now Andrew Gillum has opened up a double-digit lead.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (CNN)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 50%
Rick Scott (R) 45%

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (CNN)
Andrew Gillum (D) 54%
Ron DeSantis (R) 42%

This poll was done October 16-20 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 1:21 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (408)

408 Responses to “Nelson leads By 5%, Gillum Leads By Double Digits in FL”

  1. Wes says:

    Has DeSantis ever led a poll since winning the primary?

  2. EML says:

    I agree with the previous thread…poor bastards who are vegetarian and/or eat fake meat products. Eating good food, especially tasty animals is onr of the great joys of life. There’s no joy in eating tofu and veggie burgers.

  3. Tgca says:

    Cuatro Bebe! Cuatro!

  4. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Wow Dementus sucks!

  5. Wes says:

    I just read Tgca’s planned meal on the previous thread. I turned about as green as a vegetable reading and had to fight mightily to hold back the need to fetch.

    If I ever even contemplated eating that way I’d immediately douse myself with gasoline and self-immolate.

  6. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    Dementus hasn’t lead a poll since winning the primary because Floridians are tired of the Trump garbage!

  7. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    I was out drinking at a bar after work during happy hour and only 1 person in the whole place was voting for Dementus!

    I’m voting early for Gillum!!!

  8. Phil says:

    Does anyone really believe Gillum is up twelve points?

  9. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In the CNN Florida Poll, Scott and DeSantis recive, respectively, 3 and 1 percent of the Democrat vote. It seems hard to believe since the registered Democrats in the northern part of Florida vote heavily Republican on the Federal level.
    Does anyone know the PID of this poll?
    Lastly, does anyone believe that Rick Scott will receive only 25% of the non-Caucasian vote(I guess AA’s and Latinos including Cubans) and lose this vote in total by 40%?

  10. jason says:

    Since non-Census is always wrong there is hope for DeSantis.

    Gillum is an outright socialist, I really can’t understand why he would have that much support in a low tax state like FL.

  11. Tgca says:

    Evidently you know little about organic veggie diets. It depends what kind of veggie burgers you eat. There are many garbage brands out there. I only eat high quality burgers not filled with salt and soy and other fillers. Ever try a mushroom and black bean bean burger made with quinoa or wild rice and carrots and spices? Please tell me about how much garbage is in that. I assure you my diet is healthier than most because I actually monitor ingredients. The biggest garbage you can put in your body is processed sugars and excess salt. Both attract and maintain excessive water and lead to obesity and a variety of severe health issues when indulged over long periods. The average restaurant does not monitor sugar and salt consumption either so don’t be fooled by eating out either.

    It’s the quality that makes the difference. It’s like comparing Dairy Queen or Dryers Ice Cream to a fresh gelato shop. The ingredients and taste difference can be easily distinguished.

  12. Wes says:

    Maybe because DeSantis hasn’t defined him or run a good campaign, Jason?

  13. Wes says:

    Ever try a mushroom and black bean bean burger made with quinoa or wild rice and carrots and spices?

    I’ll stick with real burgers made out of meat thanks.

  14. lisab says:

    dq is good

  15. jason says:

    Poor Tgca is still talking about fake “burgers”.

    A mushroom burger is just as fake as a quinoa burger.

    Do yourself a favor, stop depriving yourself of real food and get yourself a nice juicy rare burger made with real meat.

  16. jason says:

    “The ingredients and taste difference can be easily distinguished.”

    LOL

    Sounds like Tgca thinks a turd sandwich made of thoroughbred horse crap would be better tasting than one made from quarter horses.

  17. Tgca says:

    DQ is garbage ice cream. Once you had fresh homemade ice cream all other tastes like chemicals to me saturated with sugar for taste.

  18. jason says:

    Make that quarter horse crap.

  19. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is Nevada political guru, Jon Ralston, with the dumbest tweet of the day:

    “Also, on the day President Trump came to Elko to rev up the base and drew more than 8,000 people, guess how many people went out and voted in Elko County on Saturday? 435.
    Maybe everything he touches doesn’t turn to gold, @SenDeanHeller?”

    Hey, stupid butt Jon, maybe they had better things to do yesterday like attend the Trump rally in Elko!

  20. jason says:

    Maybe because DeSantis hasn’t defined him or run a good campaign, Jason?”

    Even so.

    Gillum is very far out of the mainstream, especially for FL.

  21. jason says:

    “Also, on the day President Trump came to Elko to rev up the base and drew more than 8,000 people, guess how many people went out and voted in Elko County on Saturday? 435.
    Maybe everything he touches doesn’t turn to gold, @SenDeanHeller?”

    And some don’t think this fraud is a partisan hack.

  22. EML says:

    I’d rather die early eating steaks and drinking beer than live to 100 getting no joy out of life, eating joyless foods like quinoa burgers and tofurkey.

  23. Tgca says:

    Jadon likes his salt and fat saturated food. I don’t like the taste of that. Nothing is more gross that fatty drizzled meat to me. I never liked that taste. When I ate meat it was always lean, no grizzle, and boneless and not fried or smothered with sauces.

    I eat mostly veggies and cook them minimally in a traditional way with spices and flavorings not drizzled from meat fat. I eat mostly arugula, tomatoes, cucumbers, broccoli, cauliflower, mushrooms, quinoa, and aromatic rices for the most part and use olive oil daily. I’m also a huge black olive guy and eat them daily. Not a big fruit fan other than fresh blue berries, strawberries, raspberries, blackberries, and pineapple which I usually have a bit of daily with an occasional banana. One does not need too much sugary fruit in their diet.

  24. jason says:

    I was never a fan of fatty meats.”

    Lean meats have zero flavor, they are prohibited from my house.

    Fat is what gives meat flavor. Imagine a corned beet and pastrami sandwich without that nice layer of fat.

    It’s like morons who buy lean ground beef for hamburgers, just makes them dry.

    And if you haven’t cooked with duck fat, you are really missing something.

  25. jason says:

    Nothing wrong with black olives. Chile grows some of the best.

    I eat them constantly too, good with beer, before I move on to a well marbled steak.

  26. EML says:

    I eat mostly arugula, tomatoes, cucumbers, broccoli, cauliflower, mushrooms, quinoa, and aromatic rices for the most part
    =========================
    Why even bother living? Not even sure I can even call that living.

  27. EML says:

    Imagine a corned beet
    ==================
    I’m guessing corned beet sandwiches are already on tcga’s menu, minus the rye bread.

  28. Tgca says:

    I detest the taste of most alcohol, especially most beer and pretty much always did.

    …and you make the assumption, I eat veggie to live long and don’t enjoy eating. I actually enjoy most vegetables and greens if prepared fresh and good. Many traditional Italian, Latin, and Mediterranean cooking included fresh tasting vegetables which is the way I eat mine. I don’t care for overcooked and mushy veggies.

    I have no desire to live to 100. 70 or 75 in good health is good enough for me. I see too many folks in their 60s and 70s in bad health.

  29. Waingro says:

    The PID of the CNN poll is laughable. Stick it in the garbage dumpster and move on.

  30. EML says:

    Italian, mediterranean, and latin diets also include fish, lamb, veal, beef, pork, and cured dried meats, along with a big block of cheese with crusty bread on a daily basis

  31. lisab says:

    dq tastes like freedom

  32. jason says:

    Ok the bottle of 2012 Rioja is now gone.

    I could switch to Pilsner Urquell or open a bottle of Maipo Valley Carmenére.

    I hate these type of decisions.

    I asked my wife what I should do. She said why bother, you will just do the opposite. So I said, yeah, I will, so pick one.

  33. Wes says:

    Ah, to have Tg’s life: no women, no alcohol, no meat. I’m guessing no cigars or anything else that would make life enjoyable.

    I would just jump off a bridge and end it all now.

  34. Tgca says:

    The reason many westerners are obese and lethargic is because they have gotten away from their more healthy traditional ethnic diets for carbs, sugar, and salt overload.

    My diet is pretty much based on taste intensive Mediterranean diets where fresh vegetables supplemented meats and fish. I just prefer not to do the fleshy.

    As for duck, I detested it’s taste from the 1st time I tried it. I do not like very fatty meats. Never did. I especially never like the chew factor where some are grizzly and chewy. I always thought prime rib disgusting because of the fatty tissue. My choice of meat was chateaubriand or filet mignon.

  35. EML says:

    I have a 32oz crowler of North Brewery’s God Complex (stout with coffee, hazelnut, and chile pepper) with my name on it at home. Just crossed the border back into NY.

  36. Wes says:

    I can imagine Tg drinking a cup of filtered water with his pinky in the air.

  37. EML says:

    Italians don’t eat quinoa burgers and tofurkey. They laugh at that idiocy. Millions and millions of people eat meat, bread, cheese and alcohol and are not obese, this 145 pounder being one of them.

  38. jason says:

    I don’t care about living long, I want to live well while I am living.

    That being said, I am reducing sugar and starches, I don’t really enjoy starchy and sugary things anyway, except for mashed potatoes and pies. My pasta with lamb ragout was mostly ragout.

    I get enough sugar from alcohol of course, I am not planning any cutbacks there. No sense going overboard.

  39. Tgca says:

    Alcohol dulls the senses and I always like to be in control and clear headed. I have experienced my share of the devils brew in my youth but unfortunately it rarely left me feeling well the next day. No matter how good the boorbon, my choice of drink in the day, the next day was brutal on my head and throat.

    As for cigars, I love the smell of them and pipe tobacco. I worked in a tobacco shop in my yoot. I smoked cigarettes for many years starting at 13 through my mid 30s and then quit cold turkey because it irritated my throat immensely. What a nasty and disgusting habit but it got me through many nights of solving differential equation problems in college and something to hold in my right hand during my clubbing years while nursing a bourbon in my left hand.

    As for seafood. Hated it all since I was a kid.

  40. jason says:

    I think Tgca means gristle when he talks about grizle….and grizzy.

  41. Mr.Vito says:

    “Hey, stupid butt Jon, maybe they had better things to do yesterday like attend the Trump rally in Elko!”

    Well, it’s 93% of their 2016 presidential first day number.

  42. lisab says:

    No matter how good the boorbon, my choice of drink in the day, the next day was brutal on my head and throat.
    ————————-

    don’t drink too much. if you were sick the next day, you drank way too much.

  43. jason says:

    Duck is actually pretty lean after its cooked, the fat all renders out.

    That is why I prefer duck confit, where it’s preserved in its own fat.

  44. Bitterlaw says:

    I always order meat cooked well done. My 3 favorite food groups are butter, salt and potatoes.

  45. jason says:

    if you were sick the next day, you drank way too much.”

    Yeah, but if you start drinking again, you start feeling better.

  46. Bitterlaw says:

    Dairy Queen? Ummmmmm. No.

  47. EML says:

    Things given to us by the healthy Italian diet…wine by the bucket, 55 pound cheese wheels, an entire course that is just pasta, pizza (cheese covered bread), pepperoni, salami, prosciutto, cannolis, gelato, and of course lemoncello.

  48. jason says:

    I always order meat cooked well done”

    Geezus, I would rather starve than eat well done meat.

    It’s like shoe leather.

    Nobody can tell one well done meat from another.

    Bitter, try a nice rare steak, medium rare if you ar a beginner. You will never go back to ruining meat.

  49. Tgca says:

    I did not realize EML was so feather light. I am a very solid muscle toned guy. I weigh more than I look because I’m rather muscle dense…go for it Bitter! At 165 pounds I can still fit in 30 inch waist pants. It’s my Latin genes. I can put on muscle very easy and still have bulging calves though I’ve not worked them out focusedly for years.

    Italians and Latin diets supplemented seafood and meats with fresh greens and veggies and fruits. I eat all that less the meat. I’m a vegetarian and not a vegan so I indulge in many fine cheeses and eat eggs daily, my fav food EVAH! I can eat a pound of Brie cheese in one sitting. My diet is extremely favorable by traditional ethnic standards. One does not need to smother everything in butter for taste though I delight in fresh cream butters and olive or Italian breads.

  50. Wes says:

    Well done meat, Bitter?

    Next time why don’t you just go into the restaurant and ask them to cook your shoe for you?

    It’ll be identical to eating a well-done steak.

    Blech!

  51. jason says:

    I have never been to a DQ. I can’t imagine they would have anything I could eat.

  52. Tgca says:

    50

    That’s where I agree with Jadon over Bitter. When I ate meat, it had to be medium rare with natural meat juices. Never well done. That’s like leather and lacking taste.

  53. Wes says:

    Well-done meat is an abomination.

  54. jason says:

    Anthony Bourdain said when restaurants overcook steaks by mistake they freeze them.

    When some poor bastard orders a well done steak they nuke it and serve it, nobody can tell the difference.

  55. Tgca says:

    46

    That’s a god diet for a diabetic. Throw in pasta and white sauces too while you’re at it. …and don’t forget the soda to wash it down.

    I do live potatoes though. My favs are mashed with butter or gravy, or roasted with olive oil, rosemary, black pepper, and sea salt. Yummy! Though I will occasionally indulge in 5 Guys Cajun fries too in order to satisfy my genetic desire for spicy food.

  56. jason says:

    I have a 32oz crowler”

    EML’s beer crawls, not growls.

  57. Phil says:

    Back to politics for a moment. The last midterm election in 2014 the Florida exits were composed of an electorate that was R+4 according to CNN. This CNN poll is D+3.

    I don’t reweight polls. The turnout model is never going to be exactly the same from election to election…..but this is a pretty huge discrepency in party ID (7 points)….. especially when the exits showed a R+2 just two years ago.

    Just a little something to consider.

  58. jason says:

    My wife said go for the wine.

    This Pilsner beer is excellent.

  59. Tgca says:

    The nice thing about living in FL near the ocean, I could always fine a fine bakery or ice cream shop with homemade ice cream or gelato. A butter pecan or French bean vanilla or stracciatella is like Heaven on a nice warm night.

  60. EML says:

    If you like your meat well done, then you don’t like meat.

    – Alton Brown

  61. jason says:

    Back to politics for a moment.”

    Why?

    We would rather trash Tgca’s and Bitter’s diet.

  62. Tina says:

    Phil, and voter registration (net) have increased for Rs since 2016.

  63. jason says:

    Wagner and Barletta are getting skewered by ads on TV.

    I am glad the Dems are wasting money beating these dead horses.

  64. jason says:

    Wolf says Wagner made $70 million hauling garbage last year.

    He certainly is not spending any of it on TV ads.

  65. Tina says:

    If he drew 8000 people, there was a competing rally by Gaffe Biden that drew only 195 people.

  66. Tgca says:

    Besides, my non-meat issue, Jadon would probably enjoy most of my fresh veggie entrees since they are old ethnic recipes using fresh fruits and veggies. …and eggs and cheese, what I can do with them is extraordinary flavorful. Be it fried, scrambled, poached, boiled, or sunny side up, I love my eggs and eat 2 to 6 daily.

    I 1st had scrambled eggs while living in a homeless shelter when I was like 6. I did not want to leave the shelter. 🙂 But my mom and stepdad found a nice run down heatless, roach and rat infested apartment in Newark so how could I resist?

  67. jason says:

    I can’t think of one thing Wolf has actually accomplished while in office.

    All of his initiatives were stopped by the legislature.

    I guess it could be worse. Whatever he did get passed would not be good.

  68. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    I can’t wait to vote early for Gillum. Watched Dementus lose is going to be such a thrill throughout my entire body!!!

  69. jason says:

    here was a competing rally by Gaffe Biden that drew only 195 people.”

    Did Ralston say they all voted the next day?

  70. Phil says:

    I’m just saying that when a poll looks this different from the other polls in a race it pays to look at the internals.

    I’m not buying the Party ID here.

  71. jason says:

    Watched Dementus lose is going to be such a thrill throughout my entire body!!!”

    You said that about Trump too.

    Could you please predict wins for the Dems in all the other contested races too?

    We need any help we can get.

  72. jason says:

    I’m not buying the Party ID here.”

    Be careful.

    Todd McCain will accuse you of group think and rosy think.

  73. EML says:

    Menu for next Sunday’s beer pairing dinner

    BERGMAN’S BACK YARD
    Stout – Locally grown Hops, heavy Citrus notes, Chocolate and Coffee flavors 9% ABV

    Cheddar Beer Soup with Pancetta and Potatoes

    THE CREEP
    India Pale Ale – Eldorado and Centennial Hops, candy-like, Stone Fruit, Melon, and Grapefruit flavors 6% ABV

    Mixed Greens, Gorgonzola, Apples, Mandarin Oranges, and candied Walnuts dressed in a Citrus Vinaigrette

    DEVIL WENT DOWN TO THE NORTH
    Porter – Spicy, Chilies, Chocolate, and Cinnamon flavors 8% ABV

    Bratwurst with sautéed Peppers and Onions on a grilled Baguette accompanied by spicy Beer Mustard

    SUPER GEEKED
    Double India Pale Ale – Ella and Cascade Hops, flowers, sweetness, Pineapple and Grapefruit flavors with a Malt backbone 9% ABV

    Beer-battered Chicken Strips with fresh-cut French Fries Poutine

    FRENCH KISS
    Brown Ale – Cinnamon and Maple flavors 11% ABV

    French Toast Points drizzled with Maple Syrup accompanied by Antonio’s homemade Coconut Gelato and dusted Cinnamon

  74. Tgca says:

    Dogs understand words? Really? No Sh*t Sherlock! Anyone with a dog knows that…unless you’re a cat man like some so-called men here at HHR.

    My dogs know “ sick ‘em, k*ll, attack” as well as potty, Walkie-walkie, biscuit, bad girl, good girl, FOOOOOOD!!!

    https://www.newsmax.com/health/health-news/dogs-understand-words-research/2018/10/19/id/887086/

  75. Bitterlaw says:

    I never liked steak. Hamburger is my choice. If that is not well done, it is bloody and gross.

    I will eat chicken or salmon if cheeseburgers are not on the menu.

  76. Tina says:

    1) About 2 weeks out, I still have:
    GOP net gains 4-7 in senate (probably 5)
    Holds the House in a squeaker (5-8 seat margin).

    ALL of these races, except Heitkamp, Cruz, Romney, and Blackburn are gonna be close. It could be exactly like Trump’s electoral college:
    12:07 PM – Oct 21, 2018

    Larry Schweikart

  77. EML says:

    I never understood ordering a burger or steak when going out. I can do better at home with minimal effort. If I’m going out, I’m getting something that’s tough to do at home, like rossejat negro –
    thin noodles prepared paella style, squid in its ink, shellfish stock, garnished with all i oli and salsa verde

  78. lisab says:

    I have a 32oz crowler of North Brewery’s God Complex (stout with coffee, hazelnut, and chile pepper) with my name on it at home. Just crossed the border back into NY.
    ———————————–

    just fyi, light lagers are the hardest to brew — light meaning light bodied not light in calories.

    when breweries throw a bunch of crap into beer it masks imperfections in the brewing process.

    when you see a triple ipa or chilli flavoured beer, the brewery did not have to watch quality as much

    if you see a clear pale lager (or even ale, but especially lager) it means the brewer had to watch temperature and yeast like a hawk

  79. Tgca says:

    80 EML

    Stop with the racist remarks please!

  80. Tina says:

    Gaffe Biden’s 195 person rally was in Vegas.

  81. Tgca says:

    I HATE most beer. Back in the day, one bottle of beer meant 3 trips to the men’s room. Beer does not agree with my bladder too well.

  82. jason says:

    never understood ordering a burger or steak when going out”

    Yeah, I don’t spend my own money on expensive steak houses, for $50 bucks I can have a hell of a steak at home.

    But if I get invited or on an expense account, I will order a ribeye, tomahawk, prime rib, rack of lamb, etc.

  83. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena has added

    IL-13
    NJ-03
    CA-10

  84. EML says:

    just fyi, light lagers are the hardest to brew
    =======================
    Everything you said is false. Lagering takes longer (lager yeast needs to ferment at lower temperatures, which means the yeast are more sluggish and take longer to turn sugars into alcohol) but that does not make it harder. Loght lagers are light because they use more rice than barley in the grain bill. Rice has imparts little body and little to no flavor. Thr beer that I am now drinking – which has a gold medal for best stout in NY State – still needs the correct grain bill and be mashed in at the correct temperature to produce the desired heavy body and high alcohol percentage.

  85. jason says:

    1) About 2 weeks out, I still have:
    GOP net gains 4-7 in senate (probably 5)
    Holds the House in a squeaker (5-8 seat margin). ”

    Now that is a rosy picture.

    You need a red tsunami to win 7 seats in the House.

    But at least he is not predicting gains in the House.

  86. Tgca says:

    Ok. Time to do some manly work and mow the backyard. I got new mower, blower, and trimming gadgets to play with.

    Then I’ll relax with my new 43 inch flat screen TV I bought last night. Does a single gay guy really need 5 flat screen TVs you may ask? F*ck yeah! One for the BR, basement, living room, and trying to figure how I’m gonna fit one in the kitchen. Hmm…one is old and ready for donation so I guess I can live with just 4 TVs. After all, I could always watch Netflix or Amazon on one of my 5 laptops, 4 iPads/notebooks or 5 phones.

  87. mnw says:

    Tina 79

    Gotta give LS credit for having the courage of his convictions!

    I’d figure him for a loon… except that he nailed 2016 when nobody else did, & while the NYT was explaining on election day that HRC had a 92% chance of winning.

    Except for that.

  88. lisab says:

    I HATE most beer.
    ——————–

    not much of a fan myself, but hubby and his friends brew beer, cider and mead

    there is a whole art to it.

    it is really difficult to bre a high alcohol beer that does not taste like crap (over 10% or so)

    and

    it is harder to brew a simple lager without a lot of hops. this is because hops and added flavours or say a (stout or porter) hide imperfections in the brewing process.

  89. mnw says:

    I was looking for HHR &somehow stumbled into the Food Channel. As long as I’m here, where’s that hot-looking Italian girl?

  90. jason says:

    Bolsonaro still at 95% over at Predictit…

    Hopefully Brazil will follow the trend against hard core leftist presidents in Latin America, Mexico excluded.

  91. lisab says:

    but that does not make it harder.
    ———————————-

    it is harder because temperature control is difficult

    and by light i was not talking rice based beers, i was speaking of lightly hopped beers.

    it is much easier to hide off flavours in a ipa

  92. EML says:

    Nothing will really mask brewing mistakes. I can sniff out diacetyl, acetaldehyde, dimethyl sulfide, 3-methyl-2-butene-thiol (skunky), and any kind of oxidation from a mile away.

  93. EML says:

    Malty beers like ESBs, porters, altbier, weizenbocks, etc are actually harder to brew.

  94. jason says:

    “That is the 3-3 Defending Super Bowl Champions Philadelphia Eagles to you. GFY.”

    Huh, make that the 3-4 Defending Super Bowl Champions.

  95. jason says:

    I don’t have a dog in the EML – lisab fight.

    Intuitively, I would go with the guy that seems to know good food and drink over the vegetarian utopian socialist, but..

  96. EML says:

    3 TDs in the 4th quarter. Nice.

  97. Bitterlaw says:

    Eagles blow 17-0 4th Quarter lead and lose 21-17. Sickening.

  98. jason says:

    “I can sniff out diacetyl, acetaldehyde, dimethyl sulfide, 3-methyl-2-butene-thiol (skunky), and any kind of oxidation from a mile away.”

    We have incredibly talented people here.

    Have I told you I can tell if a llama is male or female just by listening to it hum?

  99. DW says:

    AR_02 was supposed to be in play in the minds of the toupees. Hendrix says otherwise:

    Tucker (D) 40%
    Hill (R) 52%

  100. EML says:

    Have I told you I can tell if a llama is male or female just by listening to it hum?
    =========================
    It’s only impessive if you can do the same for alpacas.

  101. jason says:

    Da Bears go back to their old ways….

  102. jason says:

    It’s only impessive if you can do the same for alpacas.”

    Don’t push it. But I can do guanacos.

    Hmm…….

    I should reword that.

  103. DW says:

    Taking TX_07 off my endangered list of possible R to D flips:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  104. JeffP says:

    CNN is crap…and they don’t care they are.

  105. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    American football is dangerous and lame. It is declining and will be as popular as boxing is in the next 50 years-and rightfully so!

  106. Just Fill Out The Census says:

    I need to move to a blue state

  107. Wes says:

    CA and HI would be good fits for you, Census.

  108. dblaikie says:

    If folks can’t see that this CNN poll was simply put out for agenda purposes I have some swamp land to sell you in the Nevada desert. What gets me is brazenness of this poll. So different than all the other polls. I guess CNN is simply convinced that even garbage will become the news of the day for the Media.

    But more than that it adds another nail in the coffin of averaging polls. I suspect that the other polls are weighted towards the Dems, but not terribly so. Now this rotten piece of garbage is thrown into the average, basically rendering it meaningless.

  109. DW says:

    Rundown of active Siena live polls…for what they are worth:

    R/D results shown:

    VA_05 45/46 – 391 responses. Poor R showing, but sample is too heavy of women.
    CA_39 46/48 – 373 responses. Disappointing as the R expected to lead slightly.
    IL_12 48/39 – 424 responses. Great news…not in play.
    VA_02 45/44 – 402 responses. Disappointing, but CNU has Taylor up much more.
    CA_49 37/52 – 180 responses. Disappointing, but Dem was expected to lead.
    FL_26 40/40 – 237 responses. Good news. Hoping it holds up.
    TX_07 49/45 – 140 responses. Good start to this one given its a tossup race.
    IL_13 34/66 – 18 responses. Just getting started, too early for any conclusions.
    NM_02 43/46 – 251 responses. Disappointing as the GOP expected to have slightly lead.
    IL_06 50/47 – 97 responses. Good early start given the toupees have given the Republican up for dead.
    OH_01 43/43 – 116 responses. Disappointing but its early.

    I still wonder if in the end this experiment will show that Siena was all over the map and not very reliable.

  110. Phil says:

    The lefty troll hates football. I’m shocked! Shocked I say!

  111. DW says:

    Missed two:

    CA_10 68/24 – 21 responses. Just getting started
    NJ_03 26/73 – 17 responses. Just getting started

  112. Phil says:

    112

    What? You don’t buy that a midterm election electorate in a state carried by Trump is suddenly uncharacteristically younger, less white, and significantly more Democratic than any other midterm electorate in recent Florida history?

    To not believe their poll you would have to think CNN was putting their thumb on the scale. Why, they would never do such a thing. They have journalistic standards!

  113. Tgca says:

    Phil

    They only hate American football because players are not allowed to kneel and protest. Players are actually expected to play sports and not preach their gospel. How dare fans expect to see a game and 1st not be preached too.

  114. Phil says:

    Tgca, I know that’s why I go to watch a football game.

  115. mnw says:

    101 Wes

    Uh-huh.

  116. EML says:

    Jason has inspired me to open a Marques de Caceres Rioja Reserva 2004.

  117. Kevin a ward says:

    Dubious. 800 plus sampled. 32 percent Republican, 29 percent democrat and 39 percent independent. PREPOSTEROUS sample. No one running statewide is at 54 percent. St pete times had 2200 samale Scott by 2 and gillum by 1, all under 50 which ties in with history of statewide elections in florida

  118. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida
    .
    Senate
    .
    Scott 47%
    Nelson 45%
    Undecided 9%
    .
    Governor
    .
    Gillum 48%
    DeSantis 42%
    Undecided 10%
    .
    Schroth, Eldon & Associates
    https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-9843-d316-afe7-9ae304cc0000

  119. Robbie says:

    Somewhere, Adam Putnam is sitting on his couch, reading these polls, and thinking to himself “maybe next time the president will realize endorsements should based on more than just FoxNews appearances”.

  120. Robbie says:

    The NBC poll is very interesting. Like other polls taken at the same time, it shows Trump has seen a noticeable rise in his job approval rating. Yet at the same time, the generic ballot continues to show Republicans in the low 40’s. Usually, the standing of the president’s party just about matches the standing of the president’s job approval. I’m not sure what the difference means.

    I think Trump’s approval rating rise is definitely going to help save some House seats that otherwise would have been lost. For the last 6 or 7 weeks, he has acted, dare I say, “presidential” and I think that’s had a huge impact on his standing. Had he acted this way for the last 18 months, I think far fewer Republican House members would have decided to retire. And if fewer had decided to retire, Republicans might have been in good position to keep control of the House.

    On thing is for certain, the last month and a half has been great for Republican senate candidates. They’ve gone from potentially losing control of the chamber to gaining seats. If they get to 53 or 54 seats, they stand a good chance to withstand a bad 2020 cycle. That’s big.

  121. Proud Obamacon says:

    THANK YOU McTURTLE!

    Wonder if the Cut Medicare and Social Security message is working for the ReTHUGlicans in Florida? LOL

    Great polls out of Florida.

    BLUE.WAVE.COMIN’

  122. Tina says:

    Phil, there are now 100k ticket requests for Houston tomorrow for the 18000 seat arena.

  123. MichiganGuy says:

    * Breaking News *
    .
    Sen. Spartacus Booker of New Jersey sexually assaulted a man.
    .
    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/10/cory_booker_accused_of_sexual_assault__by_a_man.html

  124. Phil says:

    Tina, wow, hadn’t seen that!

  125. Tina says:

    9hTom Bevan
    In sum: 1) D’s +9 in national generic ballot 2) In House battlegrounds generic ballot tied 3) Trump approval rating highest of presidency 4) GOP largest lead on economy in poll history Those do not sound like the components of a “blue wave.” nbcnews.com/politics/first…
    View summary ·

    Nbc= Garbage Polling, like Cnn Florida.

  126. Tina says:

    Nick Short
    @PoliticalShort
    7h
    For 3 weeks, Qatari national broadcaster Al Jazeera has pushed round-the-clock propaganda regarding the #Khashoggi incident. The Qatari network, like Western media, has routinely cited “anonymous Turkish sources” for its “reporting.” Watch the agendas. wsj.com/articles/jamal…
    View summary ·

    But the info babe wanted us to send the Fib to investigate this matter.

  127. Tina says:

    ph Sheppard
    @SHEPMJS
    Follow
    Tweet of the day; “If the USA stops bombing Honduras the migrants won’t come” twitter.com/akeemdayer/sta…
    2:58 PM – 21 Oct 2018

    Wtf?

  128. jason says:

    Jason has inspired me to open a Marques de Caceres Rioja Reserva 2004.”

    2004? Nice.

  129. Phil says:

    2020 won’t do the Democrats much good in the Senate. Gardner in Colorado is a legit target for Democrats and they may have an edge to flip that one. Tillis in NC is the only other legit target and he starts out as the definite favorite to hold that seat. Remember, Jones is a dead man walking in Alabama so Dems already start the 2020 cycle certain to lose one.

  130. sane_voter says:

    I interpret it as Larry S is not saying GOP will end with a net of 5-8 over our present numbers, but that the final house margin will be 5-8 above majority. In other words, Rs 222-225, Ds 213-210.

    An R+1 house would be 218-217.

  131. jason says:

    Sen. Spartacus Booker of New Jersey sexually assaulted a man.”

    If it was a white man the MSM will say he deserved it.

  132. Tina says:

    Fartacus is presumed guilty.

    I presume Frankenstein concurs.

  133. jason says:

    LOL

    Amoral Scumbag is starting to hedge his bets.

    We see this EVERY election cycle.

  134. jason says:

    . I’m not sure what the difference means.”

    Well, for one it means you are full of crap.

    But we knew that.

  135. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is hedging his bets because somehow now Trump is acting more like Amoral Scumbag thinks he should act (i.e.: total surrender to the MSM).

    Trump is acting like he always acts. The only thing that is changing is that you are trying to CYA for your predictions of a 40-60 seat loss in the House and Dem Senate.

  136. Bitterlaw says:

    120. A man drinking wine? Gayest post of the day.

  137. EML says:

    Beer first, then a dry red, I can follow it up with some bourbon if need be. Woodford Reserve, Four Roses, or Jefferson’s Ocean..?

  138. Hugh says:

    Eml. Love Jefferson ocean. You are a man of taste

  139. Wes says:

    No, Bitter. Real men do drink wine—particularly red wine. They don’t strictly consume burnt meat.

  140. EML says:

    I do what I can to try and class it up around here. Always seems like an uphill battle with me and jason and wes vs bitter’s diabetes, corey’s affinity for olive garden, Tcga’s gross diet and lisab’s hatred of meat eaters.

  141. Florida Guy says:

    That SEA poll on FLORIDA is likely more accurate than the CNN wipe.

  142. Tgca says:

    Wes

    Agree with Bitter here. Only French men drink red wine…and they wear thongs too. Your argument is falling apart.

  143. EML says:

    At least the Cowboys suck

  144. Tgca says:

    EML

    Jealousy will get you nowhere my friend. After two hours of doing manly yard work and mowing with my new electric mower, I required some sustenance, and I just had a dish of black olives, some spicy kimchee, and now going to have egg and cheese wraps for dinner. You go have your tube steak while I enjoy my eggs.

    Now of course, I’ll be in pain all tomorrow with a sore back and hands from all this manly work and my docs would be lecturing me on why I should not be doing this physical labor yet but I can’t resist with my new toy. My very own transformer.

    https://egopowerplus.com/products/20-inch-mower

  145. jason says:

    The people Amoral Scumbag wants to have free, uncontested reign:

    “In recorded piece aired on Sunday’s #ThisWeek, gushing ABC News reporter @PaulaFaris exclaimed of @BetoORourke as she walked with him through cheering supporters: “You’re a rock star! No, you really are!”

  146. Wes says:

    I’m not French, and I’ve never once worn a thong, Tg. I love red wine though.

    Thong-wearing Frenchmen are likely to enjoy your vomit-inducing rabbit food diet, however.

  147. jason says:

    Tgca is mowing grass in Philly at the end of October?

    It will be covered in snow soon, so I told my wife she could slack off.

  148. Phil says:

    Good thing Beto is a rock star. In two weeks he will have all the time in the world to go on tour.

  149. Wes says:

    I don’t think Tgca has a concept of the true meaning of the word “manly.”

  150. Wes says:

    Phil, will Democrats ever realize TX is not CA?

  151. Wes says:

    Of course I can also ask if VA Republicans will ever realize the Civil War ended 153 years ago or DE Republicans will ever realize witches do not a successful state party make or HI Republicans will ever—

    Ah, to Hell with it.

  152. EML says:

    Not sure what to tell you if 2 hours of yard work puts you in pain. That’s a normal Saturday morning. And then the same thing Saturday afternoon, sunday morning, sunday afternoon, all in between running 10 miles.

  153. EML says:

    Look at Walt, he spent 20 hours replacing a tile. That’s what men do.

  154. Wes says:

    To be fair, EML, when someone is 4 billion years old, 20 hours just breezes by.

  155. Hugh says:

    Tgca. Again why do you leave our neighborhood. EML as a man of taste give Azul Reposado a try. You’ll love it

  156. Waingro says:

    Desantis is stuffing Gillum in a body bag in a CNN debate.

  157. mnw says:

    IL-12 Bost (R-inc)

    Even though Bost doesn’t need it, Trump will be doing a rally in Murphysboro, IL on Oct. 27th. Bost is leading ALL polls now by about 10 pts, including the NYT/Siena, ALTHOUGH…

    the all-seeing trollpundit CORR-EEE always reminds us that Brendan Kelly (D) is “a very strong challenger” (BULLZH*T!); great FR guy; & a Navy vet, while Bost shot a dog once & is very unpopular because of Bost’s “bad temper”!

    When confronted with the devastating ads about “prosecutor” Kelly agreeing to probation-only for a recidivist child molester? CORR_EEE-the-coward explains that that’s just not a factor! Refuses to comment.

    There’s your trollbloggin’ expert CORR-EEE.

    Trump’s Murphysboro rally will do 2 things: 1) help Hawley in the STL media market; & 2) thank Bost for his early &b consistent support on trade & tariffs. The rally will also assist Rep. Rodney Davis (R-inc), who is just as safe as Bost is.

  158. Tgca says:

    Hugh. Howdy old neighbor. It was time for me to be with my people in Jersey. I’ll be back and forth to make my presence known though so don’t fret.

  159. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 21, 2018 at 6:32 pm
    LOL

    Amoral Scumbag is starting to hedge his bets.

    We see this EVERY election cycle.

    – Jason fraud, a total moron, seems to forget I have said repeatedly I would change my view if the facts change. At least right now, some of the facts seem to be changing. I would have thought a complete idiot like you would want people who are willing to change views if the facts change.

  160. mnw says:

    I might attend the Trump rally in Murphysboro, if I can bring a collapsible lawn chair with me to wait in line, & then take it into the arena with me. I’ve never been to a Trump rally. Might be a fry!

    The rally is on a Saturday, & I can think of many more crucial places Trump should be going instead, btw.

  161. mnw says:

    VICHEY!

    “Looks like Hillary may win Missouri too!”

    Vichey! Such an arrogant. smug, illiterate moron.

  162. Proud Obamacon says:

    “Trump’s Murphysboro rally will do 2 things: 1) help Hawley in the STL media market;”

    Correction” Trump’s Murphysboro rally will do 2 things: 1) help McCASKILL in the STL media market by driving up the Dem vote;

    There .. fixed. You’re welcome!

  163. Proud Obamacon says:

    Gillum absolutely crushing the racist ReTHUG in tonight’s debate. WOWWWWWWWWWW

    RESIST!!!

  164. ReadyFirst says:

    Observations from today:
    1. The morning crew here consists of a lot of Debbie Downers and Chicken Littles.
    2. EML is absolutely correct, vote ratios are not as important as the FL raw vote total percentages.
    3. TGCA has mind control powers as I couldn’t stop thinking about 5 guys all day until I had to go there for dinner.
    4. Rick Scott is, was and will be in good shape Election Day. Rick Desantis needs to keep stepping his game up. I’m glad he has. Anew campaign manager.
    5. Red wine and Bourbon are manly and very tasty – both can be true.
    6. I wanna drink with you people. You have good taste.

  165. ReadyFirst says:

    *Ron Desantis

  166. John says:

    Don’t really have a dog in this fight since it’s not Senate nor House seat but watching the Desantis/Gillum debate I get the feeling that Gillum is way, way in over his head. And he comes across as not being honest.

  167. ReadyFirst says:

    Obamacon is still deluded, but at least he doesn’t pretend to be something he isn’t.

  168. Skippy says:

    Gillum is bad at debates. Holy smokes!

    And you have DEM Tina Smith not even showing up for the KSTP senate debate with GOP Karen Housley. The only live televised debate they were going to have and Tina said her “big complicated schedule” got in the way. Unbelievable.

  169. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE
    ***************************
    And so, it begins…

    “Man killed by group of aggressive monkeys throwing bricks…”
    *************************************
    And you all here scoffed at me when I said don’t trust the monkeys…

  170. jason says:

    Corey likes Olive Garden?

    Geezus…

    Their promotion where they give you a meal to take home for every one you order reminds me of the contest where first prize is one week in Camden, NJ and second prize is two weeks.

  171. Cash Cow TM says:

    And here is another story on DRUDGE about monkeys…

    “Vancouver Drowning in Chinese Money…”

    OOPS…if was money…not monkeys.
    My bad.

  172. sane_voter says:

    I have become bullish on Scott winning.

    D to R: ND, MO, FL

    R to D: None

    Rs end up with 54.

    Next most likely D to flip: IN
    Next most likely R to flip: NV

  173. jason says:

    would have thought a complete idiot like you would want people who are willing to change views if the facts change.”

    Except you are a lying scumbag who hasn’t “changed” because you were lying from the beginning.

    Everything you say here is fake and dishonest.

    Nobody believes a word of it but feel free to keep beclowning yourself.

  174. mnw says:

    Cow

    Did u see my late night post directed to you yesterday, about Manchin’s campaign event? At which he was endorsed simultaneously (from what I read) by Lou Saban, Jerry West, & the Mountaineers’ head BB coach?

    I thought that was a brilliant campaign stratagem.

  175. Cash Cow TM says:

    Just finished perusing the previous thread from
    yes-turd-ay…

    Who the hell are Skippy, Scooby and Jumpy?

  176. Scooby77 says:

    Cash, like I said yesterday, I helicopter in every couple years, mostly watch, occasionally chime in. TX-23, active duty, love politics.

  177. Gelt Goose says:

    Honk.

  178. Cash Cow TM says:

    “mnw says:
    October 21, 2018 at 9:09 pm
    Cow

    Did u see my late night post directed to you yesterday, about Manchin’s campaign event? At which he was endorsed simultaneously (from what I read) by Lou Saban, Jerry West, & the Mountaineers’ head BB coach?…”

    Yes I did.
    I agree, it was a good move by Manchin.

    Manchin grew up in Farmington and Nick Saban father coached Joe Manchin in team sports. He is good friends with Nick Saban.

  179. Cash Cow TM says:

    Our local newspaper (largest in the eastern panhandle) today endorsed Manchin over eastern panhandle favorite son (from next county to the east) Patrick Morrisey.

    Glowing praise for Manchin in their endorsement.
    Trouble for Morrisey.

  180. Cash Cow TM says:

    HI GOOSEY!
    **************************
    Long time, no honk!

    How’s your eider hanging?

  181. Cash Cow TM says:

    Scooby,

    Are you scared of the monkeys?

  182. lisab says:

    i dont hate people that eat meat, i just choose not to

    but i do love bourbon, rye, wine and applejack

  183. lisab says:

    actually we had a still, like this one

    https://www.moonshinestill.com/products/5-gallon-moonshine-still

    but sold it in ny.

  184. mnw says:

    CORR-EEE

    pimp that trollblog.

    IL-12 went totally south on “really strong challenger, great FR, & Navy vet Brendan Kelly. He’s getting wiped out by the controversial bad-tempered man who shot the dog.

    I believe you are too cowardly to watch this or comment on it. It proves that you never had any actual knowledge of your beloved “very strong challenger”:

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

    “House predictions” my adz, troll.

  185. lisab says:

    mnw,

    give it up

    corey said bost shot a dog … he’s done

  186. ReadyFirst says:

    192 article link.
    “We currently show Ron with a 47 percent – 45 percent lead. Ron’s lead is larger at +7 percent among voter that have already cast vote by mail ballots.”

  187. Tina says:

    The Jebots’ porn lawyah has another defeat.

    He is no longer holding a Texas resist, counter rally tomorrow.

  188. CG says:

    mnw, ask for better meds

  189. Proud Obamacon says:

    “And you have DEM Tina Smith not even showing up for the KSTP senate debate with GOP Karen Housley. The only live televised debate they were going to have and Tina said her “big complicated schedule” got in the way. Unbelievable.”

    Skipper can’t believe that Tina Smith won’t debate. I wonder how he feels about Ted Cruz ducking out of his debates against Beto? LOL Skipper is a Tool!

  190. Skippy says:

    #197

    Beto & Ted have had multiple televised debates.

    Tina Smith bailed on the only one scheduled.

    Tell me that’s similar dumb***.

  191. Proud Obamacon says:

    According to Skipper, it’s perfectly ok to bail on debates if you already took part in one and got ya ass whooped! Beto and Ted’s Excellent Adventure – Beto whoops Ted! Part 2? Ted says no mas!!

  192. Big Joe says:

    #200 – Yes!! Been ages since i nabbed a milestone post.

    Big Joe

  193. Phil says:

    Enjoy lefty heart throb Beto while you have him. He’s gone in two weeks. Maybe he and Wendy Davis can get a room together. Quick, PO sent him some more money. Just a little more. He’s almost there. Dig deep.

  194. Bitterlaw says:

    Skippy, Scooby and Jumpy were the Other Three Stooges. They were not Jewish and not funny.

  195. MichiganGuy says:

    Is Big Joe twin brother to Diamond Jim? Only comes in to nab a 100,200, etc post. lol

  196. MichiganGuy says:

    Andrew Gillum signed an anti-police pledge (police and prisons have no place in Justice). The fact is that Gillum has a history of ignoring law enforcement and supporting radical, anti-law enforcement groups like Dream Defenders.
    .
    https://video.foxnews.com/v/5851261592001/?#sp=show-clips
    ——————————————————————————————————————
    How is this race even close?

  197. ReadyFirst says:

    MG. Because Desantis chose wrong for his first campaign manager and because the media is in the tank for Gillum. Things are turning around now. I hope and think it’s soon enough. Time will tell.
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278343-florida-pba-leader-records-robocall-attacking-andrew-gillum-on-crime

  198. Cash Cow TM says:

    the old saying is “elections have consequences.”

    If the predictions of the Blue Sunami fizzles out, the new saying might be:
    “Hearings in the senate of judicial nominees where the Ds all acted like asshats have consequences.?

  199. Mr.Vito says:

    So, Washoe numbers are in for day 2. Dems added more raw votes, but their percentage dropped and total voters dropped by 40%.

    After Day1 in 2016 Washoe was
    +18.4D (+7.7 with VBM added)

    After Day1 in 2018 Washoe was
    +15.1D (+5.0 with VBM added)

    After Day2 in 2016 Washoe was
    +17.8D (+10.1 with VBM added)

    After Day2 in 2018 Washoe is
    +13.4D (+6.0 with VBM added)

    So the Democrats have good numbers, but the have republicans caught up some from 2016.

  200. mnw says:

    Vito

    Too damn deep for me, but Schweikart is now saying NV is cool, fwiw.

  201. Mr.Vito says:

    In other FWIW news, the PAGOP claims they have surpassed Dems in returned mail ballots, and that they have doubled their number from 2016.

    (I have no idea how many that actually means.)

  202. mnw says:

    Saw that.

    Our dear Lord & Savior brought Lazarus back from the dead, but I doubt even He could help in PA.

  203. MichiganGuy says:

    Minnesota Senate
    .
    Smith 47%
    Housley 41%
    Other 2%
    Undecided 10%
    .
    Klobuchar 56%
    Newberger 33%
    .
    Mason-Dixon Poll
    http://www.startribune.com/sen-amy-klobuchar-has-a-big-lead-sen-tina-smith-ahead-but-by-much-less/498048621/

  204. Mr.Vito says:

    If I’m looking at the data right, Clark underperformed its D reg advantage on Day 2 of early voting.

  205. michael corleone says:

    I think you are correct Vito. Rs has a better day in Clark today. No wonder why Ralston’s twitter account went silent.

  206. Mr.Vito says:

    Total Clark early vote after Day2:

    Dems lead by 6155 votes.

    Dems lead by 11.36% over GOP.

    But Dem registration advantage is 12.54%.

  207. Mr.Vito says:

    In 2016, after Day2 Dems led by 25.3%.

  208. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    Follow
    Courtesy of “Ravi” at FreeRepublic: this makes NV clearer. 2018 ALL FORMS OF EARLY VOTING (10/20): D 23,990 (43.5%) R 21,496 (39.0%) 2016 ALL FORMS OF EARLY VOTING FIRST WEEK: D 167,913 (43.7%) R 140,792 (36.6%) So actually in NV, Rs doing 3 points better, Ds a tad worse
    8:36 PM – 21 Oct 2018

  209. Mr.Vito says:

    That is yesterdays data, Tina. It is even worse for the Dems today.

  210. Mr.Vito says:

    And only Washoe and Clark were open today for voting…

  211. Tina says:

    Thanks, that was his last post, which was 3 hours ago.

    Schweikart has gone back and forth all day on this.

    I guess one should just wait and not analyze after a single day?.

  212. Tina says:

    And since only two counties were open.

  213. Mr.Vito says:

    With VBM included, Dems lead Clark by 9.0%

    In 2016 after Day 2, it was 22.1%.

  214. Mr.Vito says:

    Total EV+VBM after Day 2 (with some red counties missing)

    Dems lead by 5.5%
    Dem reg advantage for the state is 4.8%.

    In 2016, it was between 10-15% after Day 2.

  215. lisab says:

    mr. vito,
    the economy is way up and
    well, i think the uptick in gop vs dem votes can be explained.

    first, some anti-trumpers have come home. even romney has said that he supports trump now.

    second, trump has done very well, much better than was expected. the economy has done very well. the tax cuts have helped a lot of people, as has the stock market, and he has kept us out of active wars.

    third, lots of people were offended by the kavanaugh hearings and the general unfairness of the media.

    my hubby always votes republican and i always vote lefty, typically third party well available, dem when necessary,

    but … this time … my hubby got a 50% raise and lower taxes … and the dems are saying they want to go back to higher taxes … i may have to vote gop … not sure i can …

    but … the dems are crazy

  216. dblaikie says:

    Now I know the reason for the bogus CNN poll in Florida. I had forgotten that the Florida Debate last night was hosted by CNN! Talk about a rotten, brazen effort to manipulate this election.

    By the way, DeSantis is out today with an internal showing him up by 2. Now you can’t trust a candidates internals. But I am confident in saying I believe it is much closer to the truth than CNN’s plus 12 to Gillum. And a good argument can be made that DeSantis was forced to release his internals to respond to the CNN’s despicable manipulation.

  217. dblaikie says:

    If Heller is within 10 points of Rosen he will win. If it is above 10 it gets dicey for him. He was born in California but came to Nevada where he represented Carson City in the State Assembly. I say this because at the end of election day Washoe County and Carson City will give him large blocks of votes. I believe in 2012 he won Washoe County by 21000 votes. So don’t believe the early vote in Washoe, it is Culinary Union folks being bused to the polls. Never forget that about Nevada. All the Casino workers are given time off and a free ride to vote — often early to build an early lead.

  218. Todd McCain says:

    So is it fair to say the GOP had a disaster in early voting onday 1 in Nevada but then rebounded nicely on day 2?

  219. Todd McCain says:

    214 and 215; that is good news then!

  220. Bitterlaw says:

    The PA Supreme Court screwed the GOP. The GOP would likely lose 4 GOP seats in the Philadelphia suburbs even without redistricting because Trump hatred is white hot here. Both can be true.

  221. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, both can be true. PA District 4 where I live is GONE.

  222. Todd McCain says:

    I have been reading that none of the rural counties in NV are open yet for EV, Trump dominated every one of them in 2016.

  223. DW says:

    A regular Siena poll (not affiliated with NY Times) of NY_19:

    Faso (R) 44
    Delgado (D) 43

    This is a tossup seat.

  224. Todd McCain says:

    From Ralston:

    10/21/18, 11:00 PM

    Dems won Clark by only 44 percent to 37 percent in big 24,000-voter turnout on Day Two — added 1,500 votes to their margin in the South, but well under reg advantage of 13 percent. Margin in Clark is now 6,000 — 5,500 if you include absentees.

    On Day Two four years ago, the GOP actually edged the Dems in Clark, signaling the deepening red wave. Turnout was only 7.500.

    It was even after two days in 2014. The Dems were never able to build any kind of firewall in Clark, as they are attempting to do this cycle.

    So not as robust a day as Saturday for the Dems, who were 2 points above their registration while the Republicans were 8 points above theirs.

    Overall, Dems have a 43-35 lead in Clark in early voting, so Dems are 1 point above reg and Republicans are 6 points above theirs. That’s why the Dems focus so much on voter reg in the South — they know the Republicans will have a turnout advantage, so they can only build a lead if they have many more Dems.

    In the urban counties, the Dems now have about a 6,500-plus voter advantage counting absentees. About 11,500 non-major party voters have cast ballots.

    More details in the morning, but still too early to see a trend. Barack Obama is in Vegas at UNLV to try to juice turnout.

  225. DW says:

    Someone posted this on RRH:

    “NYT: Both parties privately agree on a Dem gain of 20-35 in the House and Cramer winning. GOP confident about keeping all their competitive seats and winning Missouri, Dems not ready to write McCaskill off, dispute GOP claims that Scott’s ahead and still have hope for AZ/NV. Both sides also agree that TN is still competitive.”

    Sorry, but I doubt very much that national GOP is working hard to keep the NY Times up to date on all that they know.

  226. DW says:

    Furthermore, two years ago we saw the exact same sort of stories…stuff like:

    GOP quietly admits Trump has no chance against Clinton, looks to limit house losses while conceding the senate is likely gone. GOP leadership already posturing to negotiate with the new Clinton presidency.

  227. jason says:

    Hey Proud ObamaCON

    If you have any money left after sending it to your socialist hero Maduro, send it to Beto.

    He is very close, give until it hurts. Then give a little more.

  228. Hugh says:

    Ralston sound a bit more cautious now. I like it

  229. Tina says:

    Sounds like Ralston Reid is walking things back.

    Hopefully, obumbler gets some attendees at his rally.

    Last time, only 700 people

    Gaffe got only 195 folks in Vegas the other day.

    Big trump Cruz rally tonight. People camped out over night.

  230. Skippy says:

    Florida VBM current 2018 numbers.
    Republicans 43.92%
    Democrats 38.38%

    Florida VBM 2014 numbers.
    Republicans 44.38%
    Democrats 37.58%

    Republicans don’t have to match 2014 numbers to help indicate the blue wave isn’t big enough to take the FL Senate race or US House nationally for the Democrats. However, GOP vote share continues to drop with every update.

    I believe Early Vote starts today in Florida. We will get a good overall look at what’s happening in Florida in a couple of days.

    Brace for impact.

  231. jason says:

    So is it fair to say the GOP had a disaster in early voting on day 1 in Nevada…

    No. There was no “disaster”.

    You seem addicted to MSM talking points.

    Why don’t you try thinking for yourself, you might find it quite liberating.

  232. Todd McCain says:

    Jason,

    Why don’t you stop being an a$$hole. Thanks.

  233. Todd McCain says:

    also, GFY.

  234. Todd McCain says:

    I was simply asking a question ya effing D bag.

  235. Tina says:

    Ryan Saavedra
    @RealSaavedra
    6h
    Elizabeth Warren says she took the DNA test because “confidence in government is at an all-time low” and she wants to “rebuild confidence…through transparency.” Her results showed she’s 1/64 – 1/1024 Mexican, Colombian, or Peruvian — not Native American, like she claimed. pic.twitter.com/Jqa53RYpCI
    View photo ·

  236. DW says:

    Update to Siena’s polls, for what they are worth:

    Districts where they found good news for Democrats:
    IA_01 – 37/52. Most have written off this seat anyway, but Emerson had found the race to be -5 for the Republican.
    CA_49 – 41/51. GOP internals show a close race, but most have written this off as a D flip.
    PA_07 – 42/50. Monmouth had found just a 2 point Dem lead, so maybe there is still hope for the GOP here.
    AZ_02 – 39/50. The only poll of the race many expected to flip blue anyway.
    MN_03 – 40/50. PPP says its -13, while SUSA just came out today with a -5 deficit for the Republican.
    CO_06 – 38/52. Siena’s poll was a larger gap than the Dem interal release. GOP internals show a close race.
    MN_02 – 39/51. PPP-D’s internal was just -3 and SUSA says -3.
    MI_11 – 38/45. PPP-D says its just a -3, but that poll is dated.
    NJ_03 – 39/49. Monmouth actually had the Republican up 1 point.
    CA_48 – 39/46. Another example where Monmouth shows a 2 point race by comparison.
    CA_45 – 43/48. The seat is considered a tossup, but Siena shows a large D lead than THREE Dem internal polls.
    KS_03 – 43/51. 5 points stronger for the D than the Dem internal poll.
    IA_03 – 43/44. A tossup race, and that is what they found, but almost same as D-Internal.
    KS_02 – 44/45. Not horrible news for the GOP, but a seat the GOP needs to win if they are going to hold majority.
    IL_06 – 45/44. A close race, but Siena’s poll much closer to D internal than the R internal.
    TX_32 – 48/47. A disappointing poll for the GOP given expectations.
    NM_02 – 45/46. Two other polls found the Republican up 7 or more.
    MI_11 – 38/45. A lot of undecided at this point, but still a decent lead for the Dem.
    PA_01 – 42/50. Suprising result given the GOP is expected to hold this seat.
    CO_06 – 38/47. A little closer than last time they polled it. Perhaps Coffman closing some or prior poll was junk.
    KS_03 – 39/48. Probably time to stick a fork in Yoder.
    NJ_11 – 38/49. A blowout Dem flip.
    ME_02 – 41/41. Closer their first poll which had an R+6 lead.
    FL_15 – 43/43. Supposed to be a lean or Likely R.
    PA_08 – 40/52. Expected.
    FL_27 – 37/44. Mason-Dixon just found R+2 in their poll.
    OH_01 – 45/44*. 160 responses so far.
    CA_49 – 37/53*. 237 responses so far.
    CA_39 – 46/48*. 391 repsonses so far.
    IL_06 – 46/49*. 136 responses so far.
    NM_02 – 45/45*. 329 responses so far.
    IL_13 – 34/53*. 58 responses so far.
    VA_05 – 45/46.* 428 responses so far.
    NJ_03 – 37/52.* 62 reponses so far.

    Districts where they found good news for Republicans:
    MN_08 – 43/42. Slim lead for Stauber trying to flip seat to R.
    NC_09 – 47/42. This seat most ranked at Tossup to Lean D.
    WA_08 – 45/46. Given that many had written this off as a D flip, its a tossup according to Siena.
    CA_25 – 47/45. This was supposed to a fairly easy flip for Dems, and a few still rank it Lean D.
    NY_22 – 44/46. The expectation was this is a flip, but its a tossup according to Siena.
    NY_19 – 45/40. Monmouth by comparison was -2.
    KY_06 – 48/43. Another tossup race, but one where Siena is to the right of GOP internals.
    MI_08 – 47/44. A tossup seat, Siena shows a slim GOP lead.
    ME_02 – 46/40. Despite this poll, all of them rank it a tossup.
    TX_07 – 48/45. Slight edge for GOP.
    VA_07 – 48/39. Monmouth had it tied.
    OH_01 – 50/41. Better even than the R internal.
    IL_12 – 44/37. Slightly better news than PPP-D.
    VA_02 – 49/41. Best poll for the GOP in this race.
    TX_23 – 49/40. This poll moved the race from Tossup to Lean R for some forecasters.
    FL_26 – 47/44. Not a great poll for the GOP, but a lead is a lead.
    WV_03 – 48/37. The best poll for the GOP by far.
    NE_02 – 51/42. No upset here according to Siena.
    WI_01 – 50/44. Only poll of this race.
    NY_24 – 54/39. Kos holds on to hope, ranking it just Lean R
    TX_31 – 53/38. Blowout and a wasted poll.
    PA_16 – 50/42. No blue wave here.
    NC_13 – 47/41. No blue wave here either.
    NY_01 – 49/41. No surprise on this seat.
    IL_14 – 47/43. Close, and most have this one as Lean R.
    MN_08 – 49/34. Blowout lead for Stauber. Prior poll was just R+1
    AZ_06 – 50/36. Not a surprise, and a waste of a poll.
    WV_03 – 46/41. Not as good as their first poll, but still in progress.
    TX_23 – 53/38. A blowout – last time they polled was R+9
    WA_03 – 48/41. No surprise here.
    FL_26 – 46/40*. 264 responses so far.
    TX_07 – 51/43*. 201 responses so far.
    VA_02 – 45/42*. 453 responses so far.
    IL_12 – 47/40*. 461 responses so far.
    CA_10 – 59/37*. 56 responses so far.

    *In Progress

  237. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, After Day One he was extremely giddy and now on Day Two, he seems to be backing off, which was the reason for my question.

  238. jason says:

    In other FWIW news, the PAGOP claims they have surpassed Dems in returned mail ballots, and that they have doubled their number from 2016.”

    And that does not even count my ballot, which is already in too.

  239. jason says:

    I was simply asking a question ya effing D bag.”

    Yeah, a really stupid one.

  240. jason says:

    Jason,

    Why don’t you stop being an a$$hole. Thanks.”

    Physically impossible.

  241. Tina says:

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    10m
    Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador were not able to do the job of stopping people from leaving their country and coming illegally to the U.S. We will now begin cutting off, or substantially reducing, the massive foreign aid routinely given to them.

    This is a start.

  242. MichiganGuy says:

    Georgia #7
    .
    Woodall (R) 49%
    Bourdeaux (D) 43%
    Undecidedm 8%
    .
    JMC Analytics/Bold Blue
    https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Georgia-CD-7-Executive-Summary-V2.pdf

  243. jason says:

    Hey, Todd, feel free to regurgitate MSM talking points here all you want.

    But don’t expect not to be called on it.

    No free lunch.

  244. Hugh says:

    In 2014 the EV in NV was much lower. The big push for early voting came in 2016. As mentioned that probably was primarily due to the effort by the casino unions. It’s hard to tell much from looking at 2014. We know that in 2016 the dems has a huge lead going into election and squeaked it out. I have to believe many of those union voters registered as dems are no longer reliable dem voters. NV has one of the biggest economic turnarounds in the last two years. I’m hopeful

  245. Tina says:

    I do not think Ralston Reid will give any objective analysis. Day 1 is not a trend. Day 2 is still not a trend, even though Reid is in cya mode.

    Ralston Reid also predicted a blowout by Hillary and it did not happen in 2016. (She won by 2%).

  246. Hugh says:

    At the risk of getting a big GFY from Jason. I prefer it when we give each other the benefit of the doubt. As of now the only GYF I ever got I think was from bitter after I posted a similar appeal.

  247. jason says:

    “We will now begin cutting off, or substantially reducing, the massive foreign aid routinely given to them.”

    Zzzzz….

    All that does is worsen the economic situation in those countries so there will be more illegals coming.

    Stupid.

    Attempting to blame other countries for the fact we have no border control is also stupid.

    The problem is not that Honduras is letting people out, it’s that we are letting them in.

  248. jason says:

    Hey Hugh, good morning!

  249. Todd McCain says:

    Don’t expect not to be called on it when you are a D bag a hole. Oh, and GFY.

  250. Todd McCain says:

    Are the rural counties open yet for EV? Only Clark and Washoe right now? This was another question I had, I guess D bag thinks that a stupid one as well.

  251. jason says:

    Sorry, Hugh, you will have to do better than that for a GFY.

  252. jason says:

    Day 1 is not a trend. Day 2 is still not a trend, even though Reid is in cya mode.”

    Didn’t you read Todd’s post?

    It was a DISASTER.

  253. Todd McCain says:

    Didn’t you read my post? You’re a d bag.

  254. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida Senate
    .
    Scott 48.6%
    Nelson 48.3%
    .
    Among those who already voted:
    .
    Nelson 52.3%
    Scott 46.7%
    .
    St.Pete Poll
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278396-another-poll-shows-bill-nelson-and-rick-scott-deadlocked

  255. jason says:

    Don’t expect not to be called on it when you are a D bag a hole. Oh, and GFY.”

    It’s a deal.

    I am an D bag and you are MSM toady.

    I think I come out ahead on that one.

  256. Tina says:

    Those are the only two counties open. We really need to wait a bit here, and not get overly concerned with a one or two day result

    This article from the puffinton lost is fairly well written:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-senate-rosen-heller_us_5bcba3b3e4b0a8f17eed0954

  257. jason says:

    So Todd, since Amoral Scumbag isn’t here, why don’t you fill us in on the latest GOP disasters, gaffes, quagmires, racist statements, bad poll numbers, doomsday predictions, etc.

    I am sure he will appreciate you taking some of the load off his shoulders.

  258. Tina says:

    It would be up to Heller to minimize Clark and maximize Washoe counties, and then kick arse in the rest of the state.

    Trump can assist in the rural areas, like he did in Elko.

    Trump is at 52 percent in Nevada, so he may not be as toxic as he is in pa.

  259. Todd McCain says:

    OK, comparing me with Robbie is downright crazy. Nice try D bag.

  260. Todd McCain says:

    264. Tina, thanks for the article.

  261. jason says:

    Are the rural counties open yet for EV? Only Clark and Washoe right now? This was another question I had, I guess D bag thinks that a stupid one as well”

    Don’t get ahead of yourself.

  262. MichiganGuy says:

    Republicans Hold Cash Edge Heading Into Final Stretch of the Midterms
    .
    “The most recent round of campaign finance disclosures, filed Saturday, showed that Republican national party committees, candidates in key House and Senate races and their top unlimited-money outside groups, or “super PACs,” had $337 million on hand as of Sept. 30. Their Democratic counterparts had $285 million in the bank on the same date.”
    .
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/21/us/politics/midterm-fundraising.html

  263. jason says:

    ” comparing me with Robbie is downright crazy.”

    You keep getting ahead of yourself.

    I didn’t compare you to Amoral Scumbag, I just gave you the opportunity to fill in for him.

    So what other “disasters” are there today?

  264. Todd McCain says:

    This protester can a rude awakening when Louisville patrons told him to get out!

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/diners-confront-mitch-mcconnell-at-restaurant-get-told-to-leave-him-alone-by-others

  265. EML says:

    Las Vegas and Reno account for 85% of the votes in Nevada. “The rurals” can’t overcome that. Gotta do well in Clark County.

  266. Hugh says:

    262.. who you poll is everything if this poll shows Nelson leading Scott with already voted which is absentees that is a good sign Scott voters are under polled. However given how relatively few people have voted I am sure that percentage is not statistically credible.

    My only cocern for Florida is the panhandle where our voters will literally have to walk over broken glass to vote

  267. Bitterlaw says:

    Hugh – GFY for bringing up my prior GFY.

    Have a good day and keep posting. Cream soda.

  268. Mr.Vito says:

    There is a reason Ralston is now comparing the numbers to a year in which Sandoval won by more than 45%. The numbers weren’t good last night for Ds. But for now it’s just two days and things could change…

  269. MichiganGuy says:

    The Mooch interprets what the White House was like through dance.
    .
    https://nypost.com/video/the-mooch-does-an-interpretive-dance-for-each-of-his-days-in-the-white-house/

  270. Phil says:

    We can all take a step back and realize that there will be good polls and not so good polls out there in these last couple of weeks before the election.

    I’m not going to get in a dither about any of these polls down the stretch and particularly ones like that BS Florida thing CNN released yesterday. LOL Total crap. Look for CNN or one of the other lefty friendly organs to release more crap polls in the coming days. Won’t surprise me at all to see them release something out of Texas showing Beto surging. He’s not. It’s all laughable. Don’t believe it. Kind of like PPP that released their final poll out of NC in 2016 showing Hillary taking the state by three. She lost by three and a half.

    As far as Ralston,, come on people. He’s a hack. Don’t waste your time.

  271. DW says:

    R-Intneral:

    Donnelly (D-Inc) 40%
    Braun (R) 44%

  272. Todd McCain says:

    279. Saw that. On twitter folks are calling Morning Joe Right Wing…hilarious.

  273. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    3m
    A note from an analyst on NV voting: based on early vote already in and estimates (which of course, can be tricky but these appear reasonable), it looks like Ds will come up about 40,000 under their 2016 margin. Trump lost by 27,000 votes. So it may very well be NV is ok for Rs.
    View details ·

  274. Tina says:

    Fwiw, let’s relax on nv. Larry has flip flopped so much on no dueing the last couple of days.

    Let’s give it some time. There are some articles out promoting Heller as a survivor. He has run a good campaign.

  275. Cash Cow TM says:

    “7000 strong convoys of illegals heading to the U.S> had consequences!”
    *******************************************
    BTW, the new hurricane is also headed for Mexico.
    will it collide with the convoy of illegals?

  276. Waingro says:


    MichiganGuy says:
    October 22, 2018 at 9:20 am

    Florida Senate
    .
    Scott 48.6%
    Nelson 48.3%
    .
    Among those who already voted:
    .
    Nelson 52.3%
    Scott 46.7%
    .
    St.Pete Poll
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278396-another-poll-shows-bill-nelson-and-rick-scott-deadlocked

    Same poll has Gillum only up 1 on DeSantis. Conducted Saturday and Sunday just before Desantis stuffed Gillum in a body bag during the debate.

    So, yes, keep that CNN poll in the garbage dumpster where it belongs.

  277. jason says:

    “Trump can assist in the rural areas, like he did in Elko.”

    Unfortunately most of rural counties in Nevada have really small populations.

    It’s hard to make up a big loss in Clark.

    In 2016 Trump lost Clark by 80k votes, virtually tied in Washoe, and won every other county by big margins, and still came up short by about 27k votes.

  278. jason says:

    Whoops, I see EML made the same point above.

    Such is life.

  279. Barrett says:

    CNN RESCUE POLL….to the rescue

  280. Tina says:

    Jason, minimize the loss or expected loss out of Clark county.

    Maximize gain out of Washoe

    Try to get the remaining rural counties, 10 to 15 percent to vote for Heller.

    We are all saying the same thing essentially.

  281. jason says:

    Some Predictit numbers in case anyone wants to get rich. Numbers may not add up 100 because win-lose are sepatrate bets

    Tester 67 -33
    Manchin 81-19
    Heitkamp 20-80
    McCaskill 39-61
    Donnelly 56-44
    DeSantis 39-67
    Nelson 53-47
    Blackburn 77-24
    Cruz 80-20
    Dem House 67-35
    GOP Senate 87-17

  282. Waingro says:

    “Jim Geraghty
    ?Verified account @jimgeraghty
    3m3 minutes ago

    Appointed U.S. Senator Tina Smith, Democrat of Minnesota, refused to debate her GOP opponent, or anyone in the Democratic primary, either. That’s not “Minnesota nice”!”

    Is there any chance this backfires such that Housley would have any chance? I mean even Pocohontas did two debates over the weekend against her GOP opponent, who she’s going to squash easily.

  283. DW says:

    FL_15 – R-Internal

    Carlson (D) 41%
    Spano (R) 47%

  284. DW says:

    OK_05 – R-Internal

    Horn (D) 35%
    Russell (R-Inc) 51%

    Several of them say this is likely R, not safe R.

  285. Waingro says:

    Meanwhile, did anyone post this poll yesterday??

    It has Housley within 6 points of Smith. Down 47-41. She’s within striking distance.

    https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/10/19/minnesota-senate-races-poll-klobuchar-smith-dfl-lead

  286. DW says:

    The more I study the forecasters’ rankings the more it is obvious they have crowned NY-Times/Siena the king of polling. Whatever they say is gospel truth. It isn’t just that they have polled some House races otherwise unpolled by independent pollsters, but whenever others poll the same seat as Siena, those others are ignored and Siena has the right of way.

    One example is FL_27. Mason-Dixon, a historically accurate pollster with a long history of polling Florida found the Republican ahead by two points in FL_27.

    But that poll is ignored by forecasters because Siena, who to my knowledge has never once polled FL prior to this year, says the Democrat is ahead 7 points, in a poll they admitted was flawed because they couldn’t get the weighting right, and they ended up with a huge number of undecided voters.

  287. CG says:

    Every single cycle, at right around this time, without fail, the Star Tribune publishes poll numbers that are better for Republicans than ever wind up being the case statewide.

  288. CG says:

    I watched large portions of DeSantis vs. Gillum.

    Everyone has their confirmation bias.

    Liberals are absolutely convinced that Gillum made mincemeat out of DeSantis.

    Here, the claim is that DeSantis easily won.

    My perspective is that Gillum came across as very liberal and DeSantis came across as very unlikable.

    Probably a close race, but frankly it shouldn’t even be close for a better Republican candidate.

  289. Skippy says:

    CG #297

    Your post better be sarcastic.

    Holy smokes.

    The Star & Sickle actually does the exact opposite.

  290. DW says:

    298 – sorry, but I don’t take you as a good judge of what makes a good candidate, given you would be happy with Pelosi as speaker.

  291. Mr.Vito says:

    They had Clinton up by 8. She won by 1.5.

  292. CG says:

    Go check the record, that particular newspaper always give out late poll showing the Republican closer than expected. The actual results are never as good (even when Republicans have won) than those polls have shown.

  293. CG says:

    Pelosi being Speaker is irrelevant to me. She may not even get the gig.

    I don’t think anyone who believes Donald Trump is a good President is a credible judge of character, so it’s even anyway.

    DeSantis sucks as a candidate. He should never have been nominated.

  294. EML says:

    October 25, 2016: Star Tribune says Clinton up by 8 in Minnesota. Corey appears to be either misinformed or lying.

  295. CG says:

    Am I thinking of Survey USA?

    I just know that there are always late polls out of MN that give false Republican hope every cycle.

  296. Skippy says:

    Star & Sickle never had Pawlenty winning in any poll yet he won 2 state wide elections. Romney finished closer to Obama in MN than any Star & Sickle poll. There are about 50 examples in the last 20 years which shows CG could not be more wrong.

  297. CG says:

    I was thinking in line of Senate and Gubernatorial polls.

  298. EML says:

    SurveyUSA
    October 25, 2016
    Minnesota

    Clinton 49%
    Trump 39%

  299. CG says:

    Or MN 8 from 2014 when everyone expected the Republican to win based on the polls and he did not.

  300. mnw says:

    correction-eee

    Gosh you’re a threadpig today. While you’re all over everything here, would you please comment on how this guy can be “a VERY strong challenger”?

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

    Hurt too much to admit you don’t know what you’re talking about?

    Runalong now & pimp your “expert” trollblog.

  301. mnw says:

    310 sb “corrr-eee,” not ‘correction-eee’

  302. jason says:

    It would be nice to win Washoe, but Trump lost it by like 3k votes.

    I don’t see how you can get away from the 800lb gorilla in the room, which is Clark.

  303. DW says:

    “Pelosi being Speaker is irrelevant to me.”

    Well it was your voluntary words no one forced you to say.

    Comparing Pelosi to Trump is a huge apples/oranges. Nobody here has said Trump is a man of personal integrity, exhibiting strong moral character. Search the archives of 2016 and you will see no harsher critic of Trump’s morality on HHR than me (OK, MD might have been harsher). But Democrats like Pelosi, Schumer, Clinton and their ilk are just as or even more immoral. But if you look at the results we are getting from the Trump presidency, as compared to the results we have gotten in the past from a Pelosi speakership, your comparison is asinine.

  304. EML says:

    2010 Governor – all MN polls over the last month had Dayton winning by 1-7 points. He won by 0.6%

    2014 Governor – all polls over the last month had Dayton winning by 5-12%. He won by 5.5.

    Shall we continue?

  305. CG says:

    mnw, you have a sick obsession in thinking that Bost is “safer than safe.”

    1. I cannot view YouTube ads at work
    2. I would rate Bost the favorite in the race and always have
    3. It’s a competitive race.
    4. You are just embarrassed from a few months ago because you had facts so confused about that district.

    Everyone makes mistakes. You should get over it by now. I just recently said Star-Tribune when I was probably thinking of SurveyUSA.

  306. CG says:

    As long as a “Republican” is President and the Senate is Republican, I do not know what damage a Democrat House can do in two years.

    They won’t be able to pass anything that can get out of the Senate or survive a Presidential veto. The House has nothing to do with judges. Thus, I’m basically agnostic about the overall House result. I am trying to do as best as I can in my House predictions.

    My position is the Senate is more important. Believe what you want.

  307. jason says:

    Trump only lost MN by 1.5% or about 40k votes out of 2.7 million votes cast, so not sure how the Star Tribune over inflated his chances.

  308. CG says:

    State legislative districts are more important than the U.S. House in this cycle, considering redistricting implications.

  309. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t think anyone who believes Donald Trump is a good President is a credible judge of character, so it’s even anyway.”

    -First, let’s compare him to the last President…..Trump is 100% better.

    Second, let’s compare him to Dubya….economy doing well, but we still have 2-6 more years to judge….so we will keep that open.

    Third, let’s compare him to the person who would have been President if Trump had lost….HILLARY…..OK, now I see why “CG” thinks Trump is a bad President.

  310. jason says:

    do not know what damage a Democrat House can do in two years.”

    Wow, what intellectual dishonesty.

    They can completely thwart Trump’s agenda, the fact he can veto their bills doesn’t change that. He also cannot get anything passed.

    They will promote endless investigations on Trump, impeach Trump, Kavanaugh, you name it, and even if its just a circus it’s a circus that will paralyze the country for 2 years.

    The only reason you are “agnostic” is because you actually want all this to happen.

    You are a “conservative” that wants Pelosi as speaker.

    Pelosi represents EVERYTHING a conservative should be against.

    Yet you want her as speaker because it’s “bad for Trump”.

    There is something seriously wrong with your character, you shouldn’t be saying anything about Trump.

  311. mnw says:

    correction-eee troll:

    What time do you get off work?

    You won’t watch the child molester ad at work OR home, you little troll.

    Coward.

    When would be a good time for you to watch it & explain how you made Brendan Kelly out to be “a strong challenger,” core-eee?

    Folks;

    This guy is a fraud. He combs Wiki for 5 minutes & regurgitates it, & then holds himself out as an expert on places he know nothing about.

  312. CG says:

    We just have different ideas about what a President is supposed to be.

    Above all else, policy or otherwise, the President should be a person of decent character. They should be a person who conducts themselves with integrity and goes about their professional and personal life with honesty. If that is not present, then really nothing else matters. Your meter may vary.

    Neither Trump nor Hillary will ever fit the bill.

  313. jason says:

    I think Trump has more character than Corey or Hillary, that is for sure.

    A conservative for Pelosi has to be a new low here.

  314. NYCmike says:

    “There is something seriously wrong with your character, you shouldn’t be saying anything about Trump.”

    -This A-Hole, llama-loving D-bag knows a jackass when he sees one!

  315. jason says:

    Corey thinks Pelosi fits the bill, however.

    You can’t make this sh-t up.

  316. CG says:

    This is the question I asked last week.

    What is “Trump’s Agenda” that he can get done with a Republican House but he cannot with a Democrat House?

    Tariffs? I don’t want them. If the Democrats stop them, that will be good.

    What else is there? He couldn’t even get rid of Obamacare with a Republican House.

    Otherwise, he has had two years of unified control of Congress. You all seem to think that things have gone very well. So, be happy with the status quo. What else is left on his “agenda?” Does jason suddenly believe “the wall” needs to be built? If so, he is a flip-flopper extraordinaire.

    Kavanaugh is not going to be impeached. If the Democrats in the House tried it, such a thing would backfire against them tremendously. Wouldn’t you want that?

    Stop being crazy.

  317. Mr.Vito says:

    Mineral is the small County in Nevada that can flip in a wave year.

    They voted 59% Trump.

    In 2016, the Dems led there on Day 2.

    They just reported early voting
    52R ballots
    31D ballots

  318. jason says:

    “knows a jackass when he sees one!”

    I can multitask.

  319. DW says:

    Updated dashboard. As you can see from the middle of the grid, house control is a virtual tossup–even in the averaging of the forcasters’ rankings:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NY_23 R | 147 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    OK_05 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 150 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 151 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    CA_22 R | 152 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 154 | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    IA_04 R | 155 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 157 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    OH_10 R | 158 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    AK_01 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    MO_02 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    TX_31 R | 163 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.2
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    FL_06* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    TX_21* R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    FL_18 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.5
    AR_02 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    FL_15* R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.3
    MT_01 R | 187 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 191 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    PA_10 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_14 R | 195 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    UT_04 R | 197 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3
    WV_03* R | 198 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    MN_08* D | 199 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    IL_12 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1
    VA_02 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    MN_01* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    TX_07 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_32 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_10 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    PA_01 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    KS_02* R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    CA_48 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    CA_39* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -0.8
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    CO_06 R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 171 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  320. jason says:

    Stop being crazy.”

    What is crazy is a conservative being “agnostic” about Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

    Now THAT is nuts.

    GFY.

  321. JeffP says:

    I want the GOP to win the House and gain seats in the Senate to…build the damn wall…take care of our crap immigration laws…do more to create better healthcare at cheaper cost…cut waste and entitlements…confirm more constitutional judges and 1 or 2 SCOTUS. All that might help my adult children live a better life past my time on earth.

  322. George says:

    Ralph Reed (head of Faith & Freedom) says:

    And let me tell you what’s going to happen. In North Dakota, in Missouri, in Montana, Indiana, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, now Texas, where they’re trying to take out Ted Cruz, and by the way they can forget it, in all those key Senate races and about 40 House races, we’re going to turn out the biggest Christian vote that has been seen in a mid-term election in modern political history.

    Now in 2016, 27% of the entire vote was self identified evangelical Christians. They voted 81% for Donald Trump, that’s is the highest share of the vote anyone has ever received and they voted only 16% for Hillary Clinton, that’s the lowest percent anyone has ever received.

    Let’s make sure that the media is shocked on election night one more time. Thank you all very much. God Bless you!

  323. NYCmike says:

    “Above all else, policy or otherwise, the President should be a person of decent character.”

    -Why?

    We are not electing saints, we are electing politicians.

    They are human beings. They are mostly trained(law school) actors.

    They will kiss your baby, shake your hand, go to the endless meetings and say nice things….and then fondle high school kids (Hastert).

    Yes, do we want them to be law-abiding citizens…but people of good moral character….who gets to decide that? Several of Reagan’s kids would tell you how immoral he was, while Trump’s kids love him.

  324. NYCmike says:

    “Let’s make sure that the media is shocked on election night one more time. Thank you all very much. God Bless you!”

    -Make it BOOM!

  325. Todd McCain says:

    New WV poll will be released today from a local channel down there at 5 pm.

  326. CG says:

    Nobody is able to give specifics as to what Trump’s “agenda” is (that a conservative should want) that will only happen if there is a Republican House.

    I cannot think of anything.

    Nothing that a left-wing House will pass unless Trump signs it. He has veto power. It also will not get through a Republican Senate, so you don’t have to worry about “radical changes” over a two year period.

    Will a Democrat House investigate Trump more? Sure.

    I really don’t care. If he has nothing to hide, you shouldn’t either. I think you all realize he has a lot to hide perhaps.

    Trump will resign before he is impeached and removed from office. It takes 2/3 of the Senate to remove a President. That is not going to happen unless Trump’s poll numbers hit the 20s, and then you guys will welcome it happening.

    If House Democrats go too far on investigations, it will hurt them politically and benefit Republicans politically as has happened before in recent history.

    Pelosi being Speaker would be a good thing for Trump 2020 and that’s not something I want to see happen myself.

  327. NYCmike says:

    And NO, I was not arguing in favor of Hastert, just showing that people who “CG” judged to be of good moral character have failed him BIG TIME!

  328. CG says:

    1. The House has nothing to do with Judges.

    2. We may just disagree on protectionist tariffs and “The Wall” as Trump has defined it.

    I don’t think “The Wall” is ever getting built even if Republicans win 20 extra House seats this cycle.

    Has jason changed his mind on these things? He likely will if he has not already.

  329. CG says:

    “Several of Reagan’s kids would tell you how immoral he was”

    You couldn’t be more wrong on that.

    No need to respond to the rest. We just view things differently.

  330. NYCmike says:

    Cutting taxes, cutting regulations, cutting treaty/agreement/promises with Iran and the environmental wackos (Paris Accord), promoting FREE TRADE by calling out unfavorable trade conditions……these are all part of Trump’s non-agenda.

  331. CG says:

    The House has nothing to do with Treaties.

    If you like what Trump has done in regard to the stuff mentioned in 340, the House is powerless to do anything to stop it with a Republican President (and Republican Senate.)

    The House just is not all that important this cycle. You guys are going to be saying the exact same thing the morning after the election when you spin away losing it.

  332. EML says:

    Above all else, policy or otherwise, the President should be a person of decent character.
    ============================
    Lol. The White House has seen a string of serial adulterers. FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy, LBJ, Clinton. Should their poor character disqualify them for the presidency?

  333. NYCmike says:

    Calling out media/Democratic complicity is also a YUGE part of why Republicans are motivated and getting to the polls, along with his proven record of judicial picks…….which you must also think is not very important.

  334. CG says:

    Eisenhower was not a serial adulterer. There is no evidence to suggest he ever cheated on his wife with anyone, not even the driver.

    The rest of the names mentioned? Yes, all people of poor character who should never have been President.

  335. NYCmike says:

    “The House just is not all that important this cycle. You guys are going to be saying the exact same thing the morning after the election when you spin away losing it.”

    -Make sure you let us know how disappointed you will be when this happens.

  336. DW says:

    I couldn’t disagree more about the importance of GOP house control. If the GOP makes strong senate gains and keeps the house, even by 3 seats, this will be hugely demoralizing to Dems who will likely turn violent on the left-fringe, thereby making them nationally even more of a laughingstock, pushing more independents and moderates in the GOP direction. They will end up making Trump look like the grown-up in the room.

  337. CG says:

    I’ve said that I will be watching individual races. There are a large number of Republicans I definitely want to win their House races (and a smaller number I want to lose theirs.)

    The balance of power is not really something that I am concerning myself with as it relates to the House. I will be “happy” either way, (ie “unhappy.”)

    Be glad that I or people like me care about the Senate more now after Kavanaugh. It will allow me to “root” for Republican candidates I really do not like.

    Not Corey Stewart though. That is a bridge way too far. You guys can cheer him on if you wish.

  338. EML says:

    So basically, only the Messiah is qualified to be president.

  339. CG says:

    We’ve had lots of honorable Presidents or would be Presidents.

    FDR, JFK, LBJ, WJC, and DJT are not among them.

  340. mnw says:

    RAS

    47/52 (34-43)

  341. DW says:

    Breaking – Nevada Governor race….pictures surface of the ex-wife of Laxalt (R) showing bruises on her neck inflicted by Laxalt in a case of domestic abuse.

    What’s that? You don’t see it on any front-page coverage?

    Oh my misake, its not Laxalt, its his Democratic opponent, Steve Sisolak (D) who had abused his ex.

  342. CG says:

    Laxalt has an ex-wife? Sisolak is the one that had a messy break-up with abuse allegations made.

  343. mnw says:

    corrr-eee!

    What time today WILL you be able to watch your “strong challenger” Brendan Kelly? 5pm EST? 7pm EST? 9pm EST? or perhaps…Never pm EST, because you’re afraid to?

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

    Btw, in addition to your incredibly fraudulent supposed “expertise” about elections, everything else you type about “moral character” is pure liquid green drizzly horsezh*t. Just thought you should know.

  344. Ron N says:

    There will be no call on who wins the house on Nov 6 it will take 1 to 2 weeks if not longer to be called it will be that close.

  345. EML says:

    346 is exactly right. Per the leftist media, Trump is the most hated President in history. Winning back the House is going to be a slam dunk. If Democrats can’t take the House in 2018, when are they ever going to win it? If Democrats come up short, half of the Democrats will be completely demoralized and tune out politics. The other half will go absolutely ballistic. You haven’t begun to see how crazy lefties can get. And it will drive pre-2016 Republicans away.

    Trump has been doing nothing but win for the past 22 months, mostly because he gets to set the battlefield and the rules of engagement. If he wins yet again at a time when he doesn’t get to set the rules, the Left will absolutely lose their minds.

  346. CG says:

    I’ll watch your YouTube ad tonight, but I don’t know what you are even suggesting at this point.

    I also do not think I ever used the word “strong challenger” specifically related to Brendan Kelly, but I did point out your factual error when I showed how he had raised considerable more money than the 2016 opponent. You were also way, way off on the demographics of the district when this first came up. It’s ok, you got confused with a district in Missouri. Just admit it.

    Why are you even arguing that Democrats have thought he is a strong candidate and have invested in him?

    If the race was not close, Trump would not be going to Southern Illinois on behalf of Bost. (That’s going to put Bruce Rauner in a very bad position, not that it really even matters for him anymore.)

    How many points do you think Bost will win by? Be specific. I am going to say about 5.

  347. CG says:

    Do people legitimately think Democrats are not going to get to 218?

    If so, root away, but you are probably going to be disappointed. I don’t know why you would let it ruin your lives. You should focus more on the Senate.

    That is almost certainly going to be the post-election spin here. Everyone is going to be adopting my “talking points” about how the House really didn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, and Democrats won’t be able to get anything done anyway and they will go too far and they will face more scrutiny…..etc. etc.

  348. mnw says:

    332 George

    He’s good, isn’t he?

    Completely ignored here, mostly. And as for the msm… Ralph WHO? That’s why they did so well predicting 2016.

    But our trolls (three iii’s; core-eee; ProudObamacon & Vichey) assure us that Trump may dump Pence. Because… Ralph WHO? What does “evangelicals” mean, & who needs ’em?

  349. Mr.Vito says:

    NYT: “Mr. Kelly is considered one of the stronger Democratic recruits this cycle. Some have called him the Conor Lamb of Illinois. (He’s also a lawyer and a veteran.)”

  350. DW says:

    354 – Ron is correct. There are enough CA seats in play that unless the house is a blow-out either direction, house control is likely to only be known days after election day as CA is particularly slow at counting ballots after they keep finding more in car trunks.

    Other close races around the country are likely to go into recounts too.

  351. mnw says:

    corrr-eee

    I’m “suggesting” that you’re 1) a liar; 2) a fraud & 3) a coward & 4) a fool.

    I don’t care about your projections, & I sure as hell don’t take orders from a pice of scum.

    Questions?

  352. DW says:

    “Do people legitimately think Democrats are not going to get to 218?”

    Well, I just posted the dashboard above showing how despite the words of their narratives, the averages of actual rankings show house control is a tossup. My current forecast is the Dems get to 20 net, falling short of control by 3 seats after three weeks of recounts and court battles.

  353. CG says:

    My first question is what happened to fill you with such rage?

  354. jason says:

    FDR, JFK, LBJ, WJC, and DJT are not among them.”

    Wow, so Obama made the “honorable” list.

    Astounding.

  355. Mr.Vito says:

    As a reminder, in 2016, despite Ralston declaring the races over, Tarkanian lost by 4000 votes and Hardy lost by 10000.

    Perhaps NV-3 and NV-4 are in play now.

  356. EML says:

    Cuyahoga County OH (Cleveland) sees sharp increase in early ballots. Democrats way down, Republicans and Unaffiliateds way up.

    Eighteen days out in 2018:
    D 68,760 (44 %)
    R 39,080 (25%)
    Us 48,206 (30 %)
    Total 156,251

    2014:
    D 75,675 (55 %)
    Rs 33,964 (25 %)
    •Us 26,854 (19 5)
    Total 137,053

    Republicans appear energized by the Kavanaugh circus

  357. CG says:

    Well, if someone considers himself a Republican partisan and actually thinks the Democrats might fall short of 218, thus demoralizing them, then I definitely do not want to ruin your fun, but you are rooting for a serious long-shot to say the least.

    If you happen to fall short of your desire, what is the most appropriate reaction?

    I intend to shrug it off. It’s really not worth too much more than “bragging rights” at this point. Again, the Senate is more important.

  358. jason says:

    Have the Dems been told that winning the House is not important?

    It could save them billions.

  359. CG says:

    Obama wasn’t one of the names mentioned. I don’t have any reason to think Obama cheated on his wife. I also think he is a person with severe character flaws, much like yourself jason.

  360. mnw says:

    Vito 359

    IL-12

    Coreytroll parroted that same nonsense. “Mr. Kelly” turned out to be a mirage. Lawyers in the district were well aware of “Mr. Kelly’s” glass jaw. You can’t sell a raccoon as a grizzly bear, & you can’t sell Brendan Kelly as a “tough state’s attorney.”

  361. CG says:

    The Dems know the Senate is more important but since they cannot win that (almost certainly), they will sure crow a lot about winning the House, if and when they do.

    And the more butt-hurt you guys act about it, the more they will gloat.

  362. CG says:

    Bost won his seat by 14 points last cycle.

    Is he going to win by more or less this time?

    I say less. mnw seems convinced he will win by more because he is convinced that Brendan Kelly is a horrific candidate.

    Let’s put some money on this for charity.

  363. Barrett says:

    #362 – DW, to back up your claim, I go to RCP every two or three days and do an analysis.

    I look at the safe seats, and then I add in who will win purely based on polling. Quite a few extremely narrow margins, but I did this on Saturday.

    I found 216 Reps, 217 Dems, 2 I couldn’t determine based on Data

  364. Barrett says:

    CG – I am not “butthurt” about the possibility of Dems winning the house. Am I unhappy about it? Sure.

    But honestly, it’s going to be close. No blue wave this year, and that’s what I’m happy about. Democrats could win the house, but they’ve shot themselves in the foot badly on multiple occasions.

  365. CG says:

    DW, you don’t have to do this if you don’t want, but I have posted my predictions from Alabama-Florida thus far (net Dem gain of 7 so far) What races do you think I am wrong on in regards to the ultimate result?

  366. Tina says:

    Schweikart is adamant that the unaffiliated oh voters are or lean r.

    Fwiw.

  367. CG says:

    What defines “close?”

    And I have been telling Pelosi fanboys for months that if it is close at all, she will not be Speaker. Way more than enough Democrats have pledged to their voters they will oppose her.

  368. jason says:

    Corey really is a lying fraud.

    The goalposts have moved.

    Now the reason it’s ok for conservatives to be for Pelosi as speaker is that “it may indeed happen”.

    No conservative should be for Pelosi as speaker whether its a 1%, 10% or 90% chance.

    Now it seems like a 2-1 chance she will be speaker, but Trumps faced higher odds than that.

    But Corey, since you are so confident the Dems will take the House, I am sure yo will give me 100 to 1 odds again.

    So you get or your favorite charity gets $10 from me if Dems win the House, if Rs win the York Co. dogs get $1000.

    Deal? After all it’s a sure thing.

  369. CG says:

    I’m not making any bets with jason because I do not believe he would pay up.

  370. DW says:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  371. CG says:

    So DW, you are not going to make calls on what you consider tossups or will you eventually do that?

  372. EML says:

    Schweikart is adamant that the unaffiliated oh voters are or lean r.
    ============================
    With Dem numbers down and Rs and Is up, it makes a whole lot of sense. Who is gping to switch from D to I to vote Democrat? The most likely scenario is that they are former Democrats who voted for Trump, coming out to vote R this year.

  373. EML says:

    I’m not making any bets with jason because I do not believe he would pay up
    =============================
    Worst. Copout. Ever.
    Sad. So very, very sad.

  374. CG says:

    And also, I said Republicans had about 20 percent odds to keep the House, so 100-1 would not reflect that.

  375. DW says:

    I keep updating my list adding, removing, moving seats as the data warrants.

  376. EML says:

    Here are some goalposts for you to move
    |_|
    |

  377. Wes says:

    Who is gping to switch from D to I to vote Democrat?

    Harry Byrd, Jr, obviously.

  378. CG says:

    DW, if you are saying that Democrats will fall three seats short, without taking your Tossups into account, I think we both know, that when you get around to predicting those, they are going to get those three and more.

  379. CG says:

    You can certainly change your prediction up until the eve of the election district by district, but it’s pointless to just avoid making a call on all of them, if you are claiming that Democrats are going to fall three short. You are leaving a lot on the table.

  380. Tina says:

    chweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    2h
    Bogus Faux news tries to make the massive absentee and early voting look like a sign of a “blue wave.” Except it’s ALL in the Rs direction. Even this morning Ralston, Dem shill in NV was bemoaning the Ds weak turnout on day 2 there.
    View details ·

    I a, sure that Shepardly Smith, Geraldine Rivera, one of the war shills, or the clone of Mayhem Kelly, will make this claim.

  381. EML says:

    DW, if you are saying that Democrats will fall three seats short, without taking your Tossups into account, I think we both know, that when you get around to predicting those, they are going to get those three and more.
    =============================
    Obviously you don’t even bother to read what he posts. He has predicted 16 specific seats to flip R to D, plus 8 others out of the 14 tossup R seats.

  382. DW says:

    389 – no, go back and actually READ my post. I account for the tossups. I list the seats that I say are for sure gonners, flipping from R to D. Then I end that section by saying + 6 others and 2 surprises. Those will largely come from the list of 14 I am not ready to call yet.

  383. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    2h
    Replying to @LarrySchweikart
    Eighteen days out in 2018: D 68,760 (44 %) R 39,080 (25%) Us 48,206 (30 %) Total 156,251 2014: D 75,675 (55 %) Rs 33,964 (25 %) •Us 26,854 (19 5) Total 137,053 “Republicans appear energized” due to the Kavanaugh battle cleveland.com/open/index.ssf…
    View conversation ·

  384. CG says:

    So, you are saying 6 out of the 14 but you are not sure which 6?

    Ok, but I believe that your “final prediction” will have Democrats over 218. You just want to avoid that for now. We will see.

  385. DW says:

    And furthermore, I am not going to avoid a prediction on any seat. All of them will be called one direction or the other by election day.

  386. DW says:

    I have no idea what my final prediction will look like because the data that will make up that final prediction has not yet arrived.

  387. CG says:

    How many points do you think Bost will beat Kelly by?

    More or less than 14?

    mnw needs some backup on his insistence that Kellly will do worse in that district than the last guy.

  388. DW says:

    I don’t know how much Bost will win by, but he will get 100% of the seat.

  389. CG says:

    mnw seems to be saying that Bost is going to win two seats all by himself. He’s a bit goofy on the matter when all I have said was that it is a more competitive race than it was in 2016 and that his opponent is much better funded and has more party help. I can theorize that he has had some personal contact in the past with Mr. Kelly that went bad, but I don’t know.

    I need to leave, as fun as this is. Robbie, you’re up.

  390. Tina says:

    Two for one special?

    Rottie, you are next, I need to return to Kos for talking points.

    Lol.

  391. EML says:

    Bellwether Vigo County, IN (Terre Haute), which has voted for the presidential winner every election since since 1956, is seeing heavy early turnout. White, blue collar, Trump won by 15 points.

    A total of 2,252 residents had taken advantage of the early-voting opportunity to cast ballots in the 2018 midterm general election as of Thursday evening, the county clerk’s office reported Friday.

    In 2014, only 1,198 citizens cast ballots at the courthouse during the entire early-voting period before that year’s Election Day.

  392. ReadyFirst says:

    NT

  393. Tina says:

    Buh bye,

    Heidi ho ho.

  394. lisa says:

    They will promote endless investigations on Trump, impeach Trump, Kavanaugh, you name it, and even if its just a circus it’s a circus that will paralyze the country for 2 years.
    ——————–

    worse, they will leak like crazy about everyone investigated, and the accused will have no recourse.

    any dem congressman can simply tell any reporter at the nytimes **anything** true or not about any trump appointee and the next day the nytimes front page will say, “according to anonymous sources, judge kavanaugh hires teenage prostitutes”

    and since the investigations are secret, kavanaugh will have no ability to prove the investigations say otherwise.

  395. Tgca says:

    262 Skippy

    That’s terrible! The GOP is underperforming in FL VBM against 2014 by .39% or .0039. That’s like 7,000 votes less all else equal. Clearly a blue wave is coming and since Dems up .74%, that’s like 14,000 votes for them. The only logical conclusion is that 7,000 GOP switched to Dem and 7,000 of David Hogg’s close friends all switched to Dems. The GOP is dying in FL. I need to sell my home there soon.

  396. Tgca says:

    165

    Rubio was less conservative in DC than in FL. Trump is an opportunist? …and Rubio isn’t? That’s rich! He totally forgot himself in DC and had his comeuppance by both conservatives and FL primary voters…and Chris Christie of course, another opportunist.