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Nelson Leads Scott by 6% in FL

Quinnipiac University is out with a new poll in eh US Senate race in Florida that basically mimics the poll released yesterday by CNN.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Quinnipiac)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 52%
Rick Scott (R) 46%

This poll was done October 17-21 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 12:30 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (949)

949 Responses to “Nelson Leads Scott by 6% in FL”

  1. dblaikie says:

    Once again we have a polling issue. St. Pete polls has Scott up 1 and now we get this quinn. poll. All I can say is that the St. Pete poll is close to 1600 likely voters. And they share all their internals. In my view their internals are spot on. Here is the link:http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_October21_J83D.pdf

  2. Todd McCain says:

    We will find out soon enough.

  3. phoenixrisen says:

    Wonder Twin Rescue pollster superpowers….errr, that’s argumentative…CNN and Quinnipiac UNITE! Even lefty pollsters are getting desperate. Quinny, how’d that 6 point win you had for Clinton in Pennsylvania work out for you? 😉

  4. Todd McCain says:

    GOP leads actual early voting 73-54 in Florida lolz!

  5. mnw says:

    Fwiw, Bloomberg rated Q the least accurate pollster in 2016. Off by an AVERAGE 7% on all the races Q polled that year. There was a link to the Bloomberg story on this at HHR, but life is too short for me to hunt for it.

  6. phoenixrisen says:

    I missed this on that NBC/Wall Street Journal poll yesterday.

    Republicans overall have seen an increase in enthusiasm about the midterms since the last NBC/WSJ poll in September — which was conducted before Kavanaugh and accuser Christine Blasey Ford testified publicly about the assault allegations. Last month, 61 percent of Republicans indicated that they had the highest level of interest in voting in the midterms; that’s up to 68 percent this month.

    Voters in key House districts also favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation. In districts rated as Toss Up or Lean races by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, voters favor Kavanaugh’s confirmation 43 percent to 33 percent.

    That last paragraph reeks of BOOM! Not good for Dems at all. If that verifies the GOP holds the House with room to spare.

  7. ReadyFirst says:

    No, Nelson isn’t up by 6 points. I call bs on all these rescue polls. I Just received this email from the Rick Scott campaign. This, in addition to the good numbers coming out of Absentee returns demonstrate a different story. Notice also the good Desantis numbers also.:

    “With two weeks until election day Gov. Scott is in the best position he’s been in this entire campaign, and is poised to win a decisive victory on November 6th.

    As the linked slides indicate, Governor Scott currently leads Senator Nelson 51% to 46%, a lead that is outside of the margin of error.

    It should also be noted that this sample from last week is very robust at 2,200 interviews of likely voters, stratified by county to reflect historic mid-term turnout. Our sample shows the Republicans with a one-point turnout advantage, even though we believe we will end up with a two- or three-point advantage. For historical context, in the past two mid-term elections Republicans had a four-point advantage in 2010 and a three-point advantage in 2014. At R+1, that makes our current sample a very conservative take on the likely partisan composition of this year’s electorate.

    The voters approve of the job the Governor is doing by a score of 56% to 40%. This is not the case for Senator Nelson, as 46% approve of the job he is doing, and 45% disapprove.

    Additionally, while the race for Governor is tighter, Ron DeSantis currently leads Andrew Gillum by 48% to 45%.

    As you may have noticed, Senator Nelson and interest groups controlled by Chuck Schumer in Washington are bombarding the airwaves with massive amounts of advertising smearing the Governor. They know they are behind, and are throwing everything they can at the Governor, with their trademark disregard for facts or truth. Some things never change of course, but the voters of Florida are not falling for it.”
    ###

    https://rickscottforflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-Statewide-Survey-n2200.pdf?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Press_Outreach

  8. mnw says:

    7 sb “RRH,” not HHR. Sigh.

  9. ReadyFirst says:

    Boom. 51-46!

  10. jason says:

    EML says:
    October 22, 2018 at 12:37 pm

    I’m not making any bets with jason because I do not believe he would pay up
    =============================
    Worst. Copout. Ever.
    Sad. So very, very sad.”

    Really.

    This from a guy who lost $1000 to me and I never asked for verification that he paid up because I trusted him to do the right thing.

  11. jason says:

    He doesn’t believe I would pay up $10.

    I certainly would, even if it meant the llamas wouldn’t eat for a day.

  12. DW says:

    SUSA – IN Senate

    Donnelly 41
    Braun 40

    Incumbent at 41%? There is a word for that.

  13. jason says:

    ReadyFirst says:
    October 22, 2018 at 12:59 pm

    Boom. 51-46!”

    Before I set off the fireworks, what race is this?

  14. Wobbles says:

    Incumbent at 41%? There is a word for that.”

    Winner?

  15. DW says:

    16 – flagrant ‘BOOM’ foul to use BOOM and numbers, but no race.

  16. jason says:

    The IN race is looking like Young vs. Bayh…

    It looked competitive but the bottom fell out at the end.

  17. jason says:

    Yeah, it could be the Register of Wills race in his area.

  18. DW says:

    And Indiana senate along with KY_06 will set the early tone on election night.

  19. Todd McCain says:

    Indiana broke late for us last time. Like where we are in ND, MO and IN. Would love to see some MT polling.

  20. Tina says:

    Tag in, Rottie.

    -Clinton Groupie. (Cg)

  21. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-22-2018:
    Rep-408,778 Dem-357,227 Other-4,948 NPA-159,855 Total-930,808 as of 10/22/2018 1:04PM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-12.6% Dem-11%
    *of note, Reps have a net difference of 64324 in total absentee ballots. Last week the Reps trend showed gains of 1/10th of a percent, net, in votes returned every day. This trend leveled out over the weekend so lets hope it continues as the new week starts.

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  22. dblaikie says:

    I agree DW. The word is toast!

  23. ReadyFirst says:

    Jason, read my #9.

  24. ReadyFirst says:

    You too DW, #9.

  25. Waingro says:

    I can smell the stench of that QPac FL poll from here. It’s R+3, but it has Nelson taking “independents” 60-38. Laughable.

    My guess is they got a spiked sample of Berniecrat “independents”.

  26. ReadyFirst says:

    Outside the MOE.

  27. jason says:

    Where is Michael btw?

    I thought he would be here telling us about some black GOP candidate for Prothonotary running in Bumfock, PA.

  28. ReadyFirst says:

    Scott’s uses a conservative R+1.

  29. George says:

    More confirmation of the red wave in Ohio from the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

    “More than 150,000 Cuyahoga County voters have cast ballots early in person or have requested mail-in ballots.

    The increase is 14 percent compared to 2014, the last midterm election, Cuyahoga County Board of Elections Director Pat McDonald said.

    And increases are coming from Republicans and unaffiliated voters.”

    C’mon Ohio – send a huge message to America and get rid of Sherrod Brown.

  30. jason says:

    ReadyFirst says:
    October 22, 2018 at 1:22 pm

    Jason, read my #9.”

    Too long.

    What does it say?

  31. Tina says:

    As mentioned, Schweikart believes that the unaffiliated voters in oh are R or R leaning.

    Fwiw

  32. jason says:

    The boom is from Scott’s own poll?

  33. Mr.Vito says:

    Not sure how these people are polling Florida right now with the mess in the panhandle.

  34. ReadyFirst says:

    51-46 Scott. Scott internal. outside MOE. 48-45 Desantis. Want me to fold your socks too?

  35. jason says:

    Is the problem the polling places were destroyed, or the residents who left haven’t come back?

  36. John says:

    Regarding the invasion, oh-excuse me, the caravan, does anyone else noticed big trucks hauling water, tamales, tacos, diapers and everything else suddenly appear out of nowhere every couple of miles?
    Hmmmmm…….

  37. jason says:

    Could you make me a frittata?

  38. Mr.Vito says:

    Early vote for the rest of missing Nevada counties sans Lyon County came in

    695R
    329D
    220NP

    Better than 2 to 1 R

  39. Waingro says:

    ” DW says:
    October 22, 2018 at 1:15 pm

    SUSA – IN Senate

    Donnelly 41
    Braun 40″

    DW: any link for that?

  40. Mr.Vito says:

    “Is the problem the polling places were destroyed, or the residents who left haven’t come back?”

    Both depending on the specific area.

  41. jason says:

    John is a suspicious cuss…

    He thinks this completely spontaneous and non-organized caravan is being funded somehow by somebody.

  42. EML says:

    Bellwether Vigo County, IN (Terre Haute), which has voted for the presidential winner every election since since 1956, is seeing heavy early turnout. White, blue collar, Trump won by 15 points.

    A total of 2,252 residents had taken advantage of the early-voting opportunity to cast ballots in the 2018 midterm general election as of Thursday evening, the county clerk’s office reported Friday.

    In 2014, only 1,198 citizens cast ballots at the courthouse during the entire early-voting period before that year’s Election Day.

  43. ReadyFIrst says:

    41. lol, never had one, had to look it up. Looks really good.

  44. jason says:

    Ok, seems like polling places can be substituted, more difficult with voters.

  45. jason says:

    Ready, that was a joke.

    There is a TV ad, maybe Geico, where a guy on a lawn chair hypnotizes all his neighbors and they are spread out on his lawn doing chores.

    It ends with him asking one of them to make him a frittata.

  46. jason says:

    695R
    329D
    220NP

    Better than 2 to 1

    That’s a lot of NP…

  47. ReadyFIrst says:

    Yeah, I saw that commercial, it’s a good one. I’ve been meaning to look it up ever since first seeing it. I thought it was some kind of a sandwich. You typing that reminded me as I’m finally at a keyboard.

  48. lisab says:

    if hillary had won, the scotus would now be a completely political court for the democrats

    i can see why corey wanted hillary to win

  49. lisab says:

    biden is heading to rally in tampa

    he would not be going there unless he either plans to run in 2020

    or

    the dems are really desperate and begged him to go

    or both

  50. Tina says:

    lisab,

    Add justice and Fib.

  51. ReadyFirst says:

    Outside the MOE is what got my attention on the Scott internal (#9). That was a big spread he’s showing. If it was 2 points or so, I would have blown it off.

  52. Tina says:

    Will Gaffe get more than 195 attendees in Fl?

  53. Mr.Vito says:

    So, Dem EV+VBM ballot advantage is 4.9% in Nevada.
    Their Registration advantage is is 4.8%.

    Lyon (a red county) didn’t report yet.

    In 2016 the Dems were up double digits after Day 2.

  54. jason says:

    “If hillary had won, the scotus would now be a completely political court for the democrats

    i can see why corey wanted hillary to win”

    He was “agnostic” about that….

  55. ReadyFirst says:

    54. lisab, I think it’s Biden and Booker if I’m not mistaken. Saw somewhere Biden had under a couple hundred in Vegas or close? Can’t wait to see the Central FL numbers, lol.

  56. CG says:

    I had the same position on Hillary winning that jason had.

  57. lisab says:

    and remember

    corey thinks that the house is not important …

    that’s why corey runs a blog where he predicts every single house race …

  58. CG says:

    I talk about American Idol on my blog too. Too many people used to take that show too seriously as well.

  59. JeffP says:

    I just heard a Sleepy Joe ad on radio in IN…he is in trouble…the whole add was how he supports Trump…hilarious.

    I really despise these faux libs projecting themselves as moderates. They are scum.

  60. jason says:

    It’s funny how Corey always justifies that Dems winning is “not so bad”.

    Remember when Hillary was a pragmatic compromiser?

  61. CG says:

    No, I don’t remember that since it was never a term I used.

    She is more of a political hack than Obama though.

  62. CG says:

    Has lisab ever voted for a Republican in her entire life?

    If so, whom?

  63. jason says:

    I had the same position on Hillary winning that jason had.”

    Wow, that is the lie of the month at least.

    I was always clear Hillary winning would be a disaster for conservatives and that a liberal SCOTUS would ensure a permanent majority for Dems with citizenship for illegals, changes in voting laws, etc. End of 2nd amendment, you name it.

    Corey’s view of Hillary was that she was “better than Trump”, when really she was probably the most corrupt and amoral nominee in History, and was a moderate compromising pragmatist when really her whole career was exactly the contrary, a far left hardline ideologue.

    Same view my ass.

  64. ReadyFirst says:

    I can’t think of a reason Desantis should sit with them. None of them are going to endorse him, so spend the time working on getting real votes.
    https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2018/10/22/ron-desantis-cancels-florida-newspapers/1728010002/

  65. lisab says:

    i voted for romney for governor and senate and scott brown for senate

  66. jason says:

    Corey is a pathological liar, he lies so much he can’t remember when the old lie ended and the new one began.

  67. lisab says:

    I had the same position on Hillary winning that jason had.”

    Wow, that is the lie of the month at least.
    —————————

    actually he has been trying to hide his views behind yours for a while now. he always says he has th same view as you.

    congratulations

  68. Tina says:

    Which Jebot lies more?

    Clinton Groupie or Rottie?

  69. CG says:

    – j ason, you didn’t vote for Hillary main opponent, in a swing state, nonetheless, and then you made a big show here about how you were “leaving the Republican Party.”

    So, I just don’t think you have any space to talk to anyone about how they should feel about the Republican Party. You left the Republican Party.

    (We can also get into the hypocritical nerve you have for attacking Bitterlaw’s choice to attend Mass)

    So, I will continue to vote for Republicans, as I always have, with one sole exception, unlike lisab who has probably never voted for a Republican in her life and has no intention of starting.

    Excuse me for not planning to put on sackcloth and ashes if Republicans lose the House. They will have lost it on their own.

  70. CG says:

    Ok, two Republicans. Will you be voting Republican at all this year, lisa?

  71. Mr.Vito says:

    She said last night she is considering it.

  72. CG says:

    I’ll have to look for that post.

  73. Tina says:

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Follow
    “Shock report: US paying more for illegal immigrant births than Trump’s wall” washingtonexaminer.com/washington-sec…
    10:52 AM – 22 Oct 2018
    Shock report: US paying more for illegal immigrant births than Trump’s wall
    Americans are paying more to cover the costs of illegal immigrants having children in the United States than Congress plans to give President Trump in border wall funding this year, according to an…
    Washington Examiner Washington Examiner @dcexaminer

    $40,000 average birth of an illegal here.

    (Maybe we save $1000 on not circing).

  74. ReadyFirst says:

    54. Too funny! No sooner did lisab post about the Biden Tampa rally, and my daughter, who goes to USF, texts me and asks, “why is Joe Biden here?”. I told her for Gillum and she said “oh, gross” She’s a very smart girl!

  75. CG says:

    My sources tell me that Biden is headed to the Tampa area to hang with Author and to shoot a Mukbgang Theater YouTube video with Author and Mrs. Author.

  76. Hugh says:

    I am feeling very good about the state where I grew up and made a 1k investment in Mike Braun. I have two more to make. Right now I’m thinking heller and Rosendale

  77. lisab says:

    Ok, two Republicans. Will you be voting Republican at all this year, lisa?
    —————————————

    not sure … i may

    i have not actually looked up the candidates here in mn.

    my family has benefitted a lot financially from mr trump

  78. lisab says:

    however, i am not sure corey should be advising me on who to vote for,

    since he considered UT a tossup in 2016

  79. lisab says:

    he also called iowa and georgia for clinton

  80. mnw says:

    79 RF

    A smart girl indeed, but… I doubt typical. Congratulations!

    Mine are in HS, & they aren’t typical either. They want to go to the Trump rally next Sat. in Murphysboro, IL, but… not practical. I MAY go, depending on whether they’ll let me in with a folding lawn chair. I can’t stand up for 6-8 hours.

  81. mnw says:

    I hope to see that caravan arrive at the U.S. border the night before the election– & get saturation news coverage every day until then.

  82. EML says:

    Lisab, what congressional district are you in?

  83. CG says:

    I never had Utah as a Tossup.I wish Mr. McMullen could have won it. Iowa and Georgia I predicted would go for Trump.

  84. Todd McCain says:

    GOP still leading the Arizona EV by 12.3%. Dems shaved off a little bit, but so far head of where GOP was in 2014.

  85. Todd McCain says:

    Anyone endorsing Beto (McMullen) is a complete fraud.

  86. CG says:

    What would Trump call someone who couldn’t stand for several hours, to see him, no less…

    low-energy

  87. EML says:

    Corey, if 2020 is Trump vs Warren, who would you want to win?

  88. CG says:

    Someone else.

  89. CG says:

    I checked and I did have Utah as a tossup at one point.

  90. ReadyFirst says:

    mnw, Yeah, I’ve shied away from the Trump rallies because of those kind of waits. If you get a chance to take them though you should, they’ll remember it forever. My daughter has a great selfie with Marco Rubio which she’ll remember forever. I stood 3 hours at the UF/LSU game and that was more than enough for me. 6 hours for Trump just isn’t going to happen unless I can get something up front and even then…

  91. EML says:

    If Trump is the Republican nominee and Warren is the Democratic nominee, one of them will win. Who would you prefer given those two choices? It’s an easy question.

  92. phoenixrisen says:

    #33 — Um, those Cuyahoga County numbers should worry Brown. He needs a pad there to offset GOP areas to the south.

  93. CG says:

    Whether one of them will win or not is irrelevant to me. I will hope for a better choice. There is a lot of time to see if there will be a better choice. I prefer neither, though I stand by my belief that Donald Trump is the worst possible human being who will ever be nominated by a major party for President.

    If you were given a gift certificate to Olive Garden and one to Red Lobster, I don’t think you would be using either of them.

  94. CG says:

    And if there is not a better choice, I will make my own up. I cannot vote for Elizabeth Warren and I sure as hell will never vote for Donald Trump.

  95. EML says:

    Pretty pathetic that you can’t answer a simple question.

  96. CG says:

    I answered the question. I will vote for neither. The same thing you did in 2016.

  97. Todd McCain says:

    Donald J Trump to you!

  98. Tina says:

    There are aerial shots of the crowd waiting in line in Houston,

    This rally is so large that it could be the unofficial start to 2020, Keep,Ameria Great.

    Jebots triggered in 3, 2, 1….

  99. CG says:

    Now, if you had to have your last meal at Olive Garden (which I have only been to a few times), what would you order? It’s a simple question.

  100. EML says:

    I’m not asking who you would vote for, I’m asking who you would prefer to have as president on January 20, 2021, given Warren vs Trump.

  101. Tina says:

    Pretty clear that McMullin was the Clinton sock puppet

    Endorsed by the Socialist on the Lido Deck.

  102. CG says:

    Why does it matter whom I prefer? I don’t want either of them. If I had this kind of power for America on my own, I would be using it in different ways.

    There are some things that would be done under a Trump Admin I would prefer over the alternative, and vice versa. Trump is still the worse human.

  103. EML says:

    I’d get the tour of italy. I answered your question, now answer mine.

  104. CG says:

    If your hatred of Olive Garden means that much to you and you are about to die anyway, you ought to depart the Earth with your dignity intact.

  105. ReadyFirst says:

    mnw, Congratulations! Cherish these days, they’re out the door all too quick. Plus, as soon as they leave, they’re way smarter than you because they then know everything, lol.

  106. Tina says:

    It is no secret.

    It is Hillary or Bust in 2020.

    -Jebot

  107. ReadyFirst says:

    105. I enjoy their chicken scampi, with Toscanna soup.

  108. EML says:

    It’s no secret that Corey won’t answer the question because he knows it will expose him for the fraud that he is. No supposed Republican voter would ever want Fauxcahontas. At least Trump has some redeeming qualities with court picks and the economy. Fauxcahontas represents everything Corey is supposedly against. Yet he still prefers her over Trump.

  109. ReadyFirst says:

    and Trump is far from being the worst human.

  110. CG says:

    I don’t know how else I’m supposed to answer the question.

    I’ve stated I could never vote for Elizabeth Warren. What else am I supposed to do? I couldn’t “stop her” in my state anyway. Why do my “feelings” matter? My feelings are that 99.9 percent of Americans are better human beings and more worthy of the Presidency than DJT.

  111. mnw says:

    111 RF

    I’ll have to take them to another one. After all, I’ve got 6 more years.

    I have trouble envisioning the rally supervisors letting me in with a collapsible lawn/stadium chair, btw.

  112. CG says:

    It would only be fair for me then to ask in return, not if one would vote for David Duke against Elizabeth Warren, though I am sure a good number of you would, but whom you would want to win such a contest.

    Who is willing to answer more directly than I was on the Trump v Warren question?

    Remember, D. Duke would surely be better on SCOTUS, right?

  113. CG says:

    There will probably be Medal of Honor winners there dating back to WWII with two prosthetic legs and two fake hips who will stand ramrod straight for hours just for the chance to salute their COC Donald J. Trump.

    lawn chairs…..

  114. CG says:

    Chuck would stand up and let ’em see him.

  115. EML says:

    So you are equating Donald Trump with David Duke?

  116. CG says:

    I consider Trump to be David Duke Lite.

    You can disagree with that if you want but there is no reason the question could not be answered.

  117. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    2m2 minutes ago

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881?cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma

    Rs outpacing Ds in key states (i.e., only slightly behind in NV, ahead in AZ, FL, NC, and so on . . . as I’ve been telling you).

  118. DW says:

    123 – don’t confuse “Democrats +13” with facts.

  119. Tina says:

    Replying to @forwnews @Garrett_Archer
    GOP lead in ballots cast is 12.3%. Same time in 2014 during a small GOP wave it was 9.5%.
    View

    This from the Az DatanGuy Twitter feed.

  120. Tina says:

    The AZ Data Guru
    The AZ Data Guru
    @Garrett_Archer
    Follow
    .@SecretaryReagan #AZ Early Ballot update for 10/22. 399k in. Parties: GOP 44.7%, DEM 32.4%, OTH 22.4% (+12.3 GOP). Female estimate: 48.3%, Median age drops 1 to 57, Mean age drops to 56.9. arizona.vote/early-ballot-s…
    11:36 AM – 22 Oct 2

  121. CG says:

    Fun fact-

    Despite her last name, AZ GOP Secretary of State Michele Reagan lost in the primary this year because she wasn’t MAGA enough.

  122. lisab says:

    Lisab, what congressional district are you in?
    —————–

    the 1st

    the one that is the entire southern border of mn

    i guess the candidates are:

    DFL Dan Feehan
    Rep Jim Hagedorn

  123. Tina says:

    Is that article from nbc what set off Mika and scarfarce?

  124. EML says:

    but there is no reason the question could not be answered.
    ===========================
    So then answer it. Who would you prefer?
    Duke vs Warren
    Trump vs Warren

  125. Tina says:

    I only gave $ to Nunes and cox in ca.

    Nunes for exposing the coup by the fib and Justice.

  126. CG says:

    So, what’s the hang-up on Hagedorn?

    How about Housley, Johnson, and the other dude?

    If DJT is being so good to lisab and her family, why not follow his wishes and vote straight Republican?

    Are you even going to vote for the Republican to defeat domestic abuser and Louis Farrakhan apologist Keith Ellison?

  127. EML says:

    the 1st
    ================
    So you wemt from Rochester to Rochester? In a district where your vote matters, hopefully you do the right thing and vote R.

  128. CG says:

    I would vote for none of the above. I would disapprove of the actions of all in office.

    If I am following Election Night and most want to see someone lose for the purpose of immediate gratification, it would be Duke and Trump.

    Now, you should answer Duke vs. Warren.

  129. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    21m
    FL absentee and early voting: Rs 408,661 Ds 357,119 Other 164,791 Rs lead 51,452 Early voting has begun, so R absentee lead (historically) will shrink. At this point in 2016 Ds were up 20 votes and lost the state.
    View details ·

  130. CG says:

    Anybody who would go to the polls and vote for the same Keith Ellison who posed with a pro-ANTIFA book which advocated political violence has no right to lecture anyone about what kind of a Republican they might be.

    If lisab actually means the things she types here, there is no reason in the world she would not vote straight Republican in this midterm election.

    I’m going to vote straight Republican in this midterm election and I despise DJT.

  131. lisab says:

    I never had Utah as a Tossup.I wish Mr. McMullen could have won it. Iowa and Georgia I predicted would go for Trump.
    —————————-

    actually i misspoke, corey did call georgia for trump

    he called iowa, georgia, ohio and utah tossups

    and from those tossups he called iowa and ohio for clinton

    but he definitely called utah a tossup

    archives don’t lie, even if corey does

  132. lisab says:

    I checked and I did have Utah as a tossup at one point.
    —————–

    yes, right before the election

  133. CG says:

    My final Iowa prediction (on Monday) was for Trump.

    I already said I checked my blog and I had Utah as a tossup at one point, but not finally, and I did predict it for Trump.

  134. mnw says:

    corrr-eee’s employer know he sits at work (if he works) & posts leftwing drivel on a message board all day?

    I’d drop a dime on him in a heartbeat.

  135. GF says:

    128- That is patently untrue; Michelle Reagan has been hit with competency issues during her stint as SoS. She is little more than deadweight, and having her certify her own defeat in the primary was quite amusing.

    As for DJT being the “worse human” (I am assuming when juxtaposed to HRC?), well, I confess that I don’t like him as a person. That said, he is a FAR superior human being to that wretched woman and her despicable husband. Having worn the uniform of this country for twenty years and picked up a rifle in its service, I am proud to have DJR as my Commander in Chief after enduring both WJC for nearly five years, and then the embarrassment of BHO for a fully eight (both of whom would not know what to do with an army if one crawled up their posteriors sideways).

    Of course, I also had to contend with GWB as CinC; he was a highly honorable man, but sadly turned out to be clueless as how best to employ a force in the field in the strategic sense. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that a president should get involved in battlefield tactics, but outsourcing the big picture to aides is never a good idea, particularly when those folks are telling you that a war can be won on the cheap with minimal deployment of forces. We needed 400K men in 1990, and we needed that same number in 2003; to make do with some 160K and rely on air power alone was military malpractice on the highest order, and he sadly threw away a winnable proposition in so doing.

    That isn’t MOnday-morning Quarterbacking, either; modern history shows the folly of relying strictly on air power to subdue an opponent; sufficient ground forces are always needed for the final push.

  136. lisab says:

    I already said I checked my blog and I had Utah as a tossup at one point
    ——————————-
    yes

    “at one point”

    right before the election

    go ahead … you can admit it

    everyone knows i have already copy and pasted your quote 🙂

  137. ReadyFirst says:

    137. Tina, I saw that in my #24. Part of me wonders (from anecdotal stories I’ve heard of Dems pushing early voting heavy) if perhaps Dems aren’t cannibalizing from their election day vote with their absentee votes. Pure speculation and it’s just a hunch on my part, but if so, Dems are in in a world of hurt. Either way the numbers aren’t going good for them.

  138. CG says:

    Everybody got a bunch of 2016 predictions wrong, including those who predicted an easy popular vote win for DJT and lisab who claimed for months that Rand Paul would be the Republican nominee.

    I got Utah right for the “scorecard” but it’s irrelevant. I had a bunch of states wrong. So did others, professional and amateur. I was very personally invested in wanting Trump to lose and that led to stubbornnesss. When I could be more objective, such as the House races, I got all but six of them correct. I do not believe any professional pundit did as well.

    So, we can see what will happen in 2018 and then maybe in 2020 as well.

    Right now, I am most interested to know how lisab will vote for Minnesota Attorney General considering the fact that Keith Ellison is the nominee of the party she has supported in roughly 99 percent of past elections.

  139. Tina says:

    If Rs are doing well, maybe Fuhrer Mulehead can intervene and indict some more “Russians.”

    Too bad Redactstein won’t shut this sheot fest down.

    Waste of taxpayer money.

    $$$ wasted to a sheotty former Fib Director and 17 drat lawyahs.

  140. lisab says:

    guess who else had utah and georgia as tossups

    robbie

  141. lisab says:

    I got Utah right for the “scorecard”
    ————————-

    you called it a tossup

    trump won by how many points? 🙂

  142. CG says:

    I consider DJT to be the worse human than just about anybody, probably even jason.

    People can have their own opinions, but that is mine.

    We all have our “bridge too far.” I note that is why nobody wants the touch the David Duke vs. Elizabeth Warren or David Duke vs. Hillary question. It’s easier to avoid it.

    For me, Trump was and is a bridge too far.

  143. EML says:

    So pretty much everybody thinks Corey is a Democrat, right?

  144. lisab says:

    democrat implies he has some integrity

    truman was a democrat

    troll suits him

  145. CG says:

    I’ve posted here since 2004. I’m a Republican. Mr. Vito is a Democrat. People should be taken at their word. The one difference might be that to this point in my life, I have never voted for any Democrat on my ballot, and at the end of 2020, if I am alive, the streak will probably be ongoing.

  146. lisab says:

    he called utah a tossup right before the election and knows i have his quote already copied and pasted in my list of stupid things robbie and corey have said

    yet he cannot admit it even knowing i have the quote already

  147. Tina says:

    At the same time, Redactstein must be needed for something,

    He was one of the original attorneys fired, then rehired, and then becomes DAG.

    And to top it off, trump gave him cuff links to wear during his first SC argument.

    Then he and Guiliani were pictured like two frat boys.

  148. EML says:

    David Duke is an out-and-out racist and antisemite. Donald Trump is neither. The Republican Party would never nominate Duke, so your question is pretty much irrelevant. But in the off chance that happened, I would root for Warren over a racist.

    I have answered all of your questions, it’s time for you to answer the only question I have asked…Trump or Warren?

  149. Waingro says:

    #151, I wouldn’t go that far. He says he’s voting straight Republican (see post #138), and I take what he says in good faith on that.

    He may have a bit of TDS, but he hasn’t quite crossed into the anti-Trump absolutism of self-proclaimed “conservatives”/”Republicans” like Rubin, Navarro, Max Boot or former hedgehogger, Author.

  150. Tina says:

    I thought David Suke returned to his Drat roots.

  151. CG says:

    I already answered. I would vote for neither. I would “root” for Warren on Election Night and then oppose the things she did as President with a clear conscience. But if Trump vs. Warren are the major party options in 2020, I expect there will be another choice on the ballot, and that it might turn out to be a viable one. That is who I will vote for and hopefully be proud to support.

    That is why you did not vote for Trump in 2016 as well. You did the same thing I did and you would do the same thing I would in regards to Warren vs. Duke. I wouldn’t vote for Warren over Duke myself either, just to be clear.

  152. Tina says:

    Max Boot claims that he was never a Republican,

    Author was never a republican either. That was obvious from the get go. Case in point, remember the Fan Incident.

  153. Bitterlaw says:

    Worse people than Donald Trump who ran for President:

    Aaron Burr
    Andrew Jackson
    Ty Cobb*
    Bill Clinton
    Hillary Clinton

    *Ok. Cobb did not run for President but he really sucked as a person.

  154. mnw says:

    EML 151

    Leftwing azalea.

  155. Tina says:

    Kind of like “rooting” for Hillary on election night,

    Best that you tag in, Rottie.

    Rottie, wake up. Tag in.

  156. Tina says:

    Rottie please clean up the paper plane mess that you made on the floor of the basement.

    Please tag in. The Clinton Groupie really needs your assistance.

  157. Bitterlaw says:

    Rubio is a conservative. Trump is an opportunist. Both can be true.

  158. Tina says:

    Bryson Morrison ??
    @morrison_bryson
    Follow
    #RedWave: In Georgia, as of today, 52% of early voters had a Republican affiliation, versus 43% who had a Democratic affiliation and 5% who were not affiliated with either party.
    12:54 PM – 22 Oct 2018

  159. CG says:

    So, lisab is voting for Keith Ellison to be Attorney General I take it.

    If not, speak up and state otherwise.

  160. EML says:

    I have never asked you who you would vote for. I asked who you would root for on election night. The fact that you rooted for the criminal Hillary Clinton in 2016 and would root for the socialist lying scumbag Fauxcahontas tells me everything I need to know about your Socialist/Democratic political leanings and your complete lack of character. Rooting for a white person who claims to be native american so she can gain societal approval? Really? You have no morals or ethics.

  161. mnw says:

    Schweikart:

    “Congratulations, Governor Kemp! Early voting in GA is +9 GOP, 52-43.”

  162. CG says:

    Rooting for Trump means rooting for a white person who lied about thousands of Muslims publicly celebrating 9/11.

    That’s worse than Warren’s lie.

  163. Tina says:

    But Muh Dna says she is of “Native American” ancestry.

  164. mnw says:

    EML

    Why not just tell him to go F himself?

  165. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey is a Republican in a deep blue state in Presidential elections. He can be self-righteous and judgmental in casting his vote because the Democrat will always win. I did not have that luxury in 2016 and helped push scumbag Trump to victory in PA.

  166. Tina says:

    She had high cheek bones.

    And the university and nei acted that she was a woman of (white) color.

  167. lisab says:

    Worse people than Donald Trump who ran for President:
    ————————-

    jfk
    rfk
    teddy k
    lbj
    nixon
    maybe ford
    maybe reagan, although he did clean up his act when he got older, i.e. after hollywood
    john kerry
    george 1
    possibly george 2 (although he may have just been stupid not evil)

    better than trump may be an easier list: truman, probably eisenhower, jimmy c, mike the duke, and ralph nader

  168. EML says:

    Don’t forget that George Washington (unproven) and Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves. Surely both of those two things are worse than anything Trump has ever done.

  169. Tina says:

    Trump needs to halt the caravan invasion.

    Shut the border down if necessary. Let the 9th Curcus court or the Hi judge go bezerk

    Do not allow anybody to enter.

    Tax the sheot on the remittances from Mexico.

  170. CG says:

    I maintain that rooting for someone to lose is not always the same as rooting for someone to win. Sometimes it is, but not always.

    It’s certainly a concept sports fans should understand.

    Any claim that I am somehow politically supportive of Democrats or liberalism or agree with their policies or have had no issues with them on a character level are ridiculous.

    Trump has been and might still be far more of a Democrat than I ever will be.

    Some people just prefer an echo chamber and for their own consciences to feel validated.

  171. lisab says:

    Don’t forget that George Washington (unproven) and Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves.
    ——————

    i was going from ww2 on, but yes, basically every president before 1900 would be a horrible person by today’s standards

  172. Tina says:

    Lying Ted has now become Texas Ted,

    A new Trump branding name.

  173. lisab says:

    of course …

    corey still called utah a tossup 🙂

  174. CG says:

    Evidence suggests George Washington was impotent. I don’t know if he discussed that personally with Walt or not.

    Thomas Jefferson almost certainly fathered children with his slaves, whether consensual or not, it was of course a horrific abuse of societal power.

    Trump fathered children and then demanded they be aborted. That’s just as bad in my view.

    But I probably would not have voted for Thomas Jefferson either. John Adams all the way..

  175. CG says:

    Trump is horrible by the standards of any time.

    He lies about things big and small constantly. That is not anything that can be disputed. Some of you have just decided you don’t care about being lied to.

    We differ.

  176. Tina says:

    Porn lawyah was hit with a judgment of 4.85 million awarded to his former partner. This was on top of the $10 million already awarded to the former partner.

    Porn lawyah needs to go away.

  177. EML says:

    I am a Republican in a deep blue state who voted third party as a protest vote against the choices we were given. Come election night, I was certainly rooting for Trump. As someone who works in the defense sector, I know that if I had done what Hillary did, I would be in jail.

    I am willing to admit my mistakes. I don’t approve everything Trump does (tariffs and not reducing spending come to mind). But in the main, he has been good for me and for conservatives. I approve of the court appointments and the extra half a million in my 401k. Any Republican rooting for Warren to win in 2020 is insane. I will be an enthusiastic Trump voter.

  178. lisab says:

    yeah but EML

    corey wanted hillary to win

  179. Waingro says:

    #159, I think Kasich is bracing himself for an indy run. I also heard his buddy Hickenlooper is openly talking about running.

    Neither one would have a prayer in a primary of their respective parties and would be total suicide.

  180. Tina says:

    2h
    Line for President Trump’s #MAGA Rally wrapping through city: pic.twitter.com/puM4dr9AkS
    View photo ·

    Mnw, a report of the long line for tonight’s rally.

  181. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    Replying to @NoahCRothman

    I told you guys for SIX MONTHS there was no blue wave, that Ds would lose huge in Senate (net 4-7 seats), & Rs would hold the House.

    Very easy to see.
    3:11 PM – 22 Oct 2018

  182. lisab says:

    I think Kasich is bracing himself for an indy run.
    ————————–

    he was.

    however his reception in nh was very cool a few months ago

    that may have chilled his plans. he was expecting a huge amount of anti-trump support, but he did not get it.

    his “crowds” were very small

  183. DW says:

    “…Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves.”

    From what I have read about it, there is a bit more to the story. Jefferson’s first wife died. He eventually got into a relationship with Sally Hemings, a mixed-race, fair-skinned younger woman who happened to be one of his slaves. Given the culture in which he lived could not marry her. But apparently he was faithful to her in what now would be recognized as a common-law marriage.

    So as far as we know, with Jefferson, it was one slave, and it was after the death of his wife, and it seems he was faithful to her.

    A slightly different picture than a dirty old man who sneaks down to the slave quarters every Saturday night to impregnate whoever happens to be there.

  184. Tina says:

    Kasich is done for. His popularity has dwindled.

    He basically came out against the tax cuts and reg cuts, and is for open borders.

    Basically, he is jeb bush with poor eating habits

  185. Waingro says:

    #190, yeah but his recent hedging on Kavanaugh during multiple media appearances has me thinking he’s re-contemplating it.

  186. lisab says:

    the problem for kasich — who was my favourite republican in 2016 btw

    is that given the choice of kasich or a moderate democrat, i would vote for the democrat.

    and given the choice between kasich or trump, the overwhelming majority of republicans will vote for trump

  187. CG says:

    I expect Kasich to run as an Independent if nothing changes in the GOP (and who knows, Trump might be off the scene eventually), and while Kasich is not necessarily my ideal President, I would happily support him over Trump and whomever the Democrats are almost certain to choose.

    Angry Trumpists calling me a deplorable or worse isn’t going to change my views. It just reflects as badly upon you as what Hillary said reflected upon her.

  188. mnw says:

    lisab 188

    Thx, I’m hip to it. I can’t wait in line like that, altho I’m still pondering the problem. Murphysboro, IL is an easy drive, but…

  189. lisab says:

    yeah but his recent hedging on Kavanaugh during multiple media appearances has me thinking he’s re-contemplating it.
    ————————

    i think he wants to run

    but his crowds in nh, were embarrassingly small. i don’t think he reached 100 once.

  190. Tina says:

    Mullah Murkel really pushed around Mute 43 and the Obumbler.

  191. mnw says:

    Supermoral coree-eetroll must have huge pangs of remorse for cheating his employer all day long.

  192. lisab says:

    Angry Trumpists calling me a deplorable
    ————————–

    bwa ha ha ha ha

    no one is calling you a “deplorable”

    a lying troll maybe

    but not a “deplorable”

  193. Tina says:

    Did he have more people that the Vegas Biden rally from Saturday?

  194. lisab says:

    “cheating his employer all day long.”

    i don’t think his mother cares what he does in the basement

  195. CG says:

    lisab, are you really a Keith Ellison supporter? You are not taking the chance to suggest otherwise.

  196. Tina says:

    I voted straight R.

    I voted for myself for Senator. Choosing between Frankensteins challenger and Frankenstein was just a bridge too far.

  197. lisab says:

    Did he have more people that the Vegas Biden rally from Saturday?
    ——————————–

    i am not sure … but it was not good.

    the problem is that the young dems don’t want kasich, they want bernie

    so when he went to new england college for his rally neither the young republicans or young dems cared

  198. Waingro says:

    #198, I think it will depend on the choices. If Dems go with a fire breathing, far left radical like Warren/Harris, I could see some indies/moderates/anti-Trump/low-info types entertain a 3rd party choice to some degree. That is when Kasich/Hickenlooper could gain traction.

  199. Tina says:

    Kasich is a disappointment. Not the same guy from the early 1990s.

    A CoC guy for open borders, wars abroad, and He is clueless. A lot of those CoC guys were for the pallets of cash to the Mullahs.

    Basically, a third term for Mute 43, the worst R president in a long time.

  200. DW says:

    The Republican in VA_05 still continues to trail by 1 point in Siena’s ongoing poll, but their sample is still 58/42 Female/Male.

  201. lisab says:

    I could see some indies/moderates/anti-Trump/low-info types entertain a 3rd party choice to some degree.
    ——————————

    that is the robbie/corey dream

    but again

    if the dem is someone who wants to turn the country into a high tax welfare state

    people will vote for trump

  202. Tina says:

    h Sheppard
    @SHEPMJS
    3h
    Rated Toss Up by RCP was Tied 10/19 now GOP +6 FL-15 OCT 17-18 Remington Research Group*1,369LV Carlson Dem 41% Spano GOP 47% Was GOP +10 now +16 OK-5 Creek/AMG* 974LV Horn Dem 35% Russell GOP 51%
    View details ·

  203. lisab says:

    are utah’s congressional districts tossups this year like utah was in 2016?

  204. CG says:

    Let’s assume it is a traditional race in 2020. Long way off basically..

    Why do people here assume that Trump cannot be beat by a Democrat?

    I would ask the same thing of Democrats who assume Trump cannot possibly win.

    The bottom-line is that Trump has some serious fundamental enduring political problems (not to mention what else might happen legally) and Democrats as a brand have some very severe weaknesses and limitations as well.

    In a few months, there will be polls showing Trump running behind Democrat prospects, and people here will declare them “fake news” just like the polls that suggest Democrats might win various midterm races are dismissed out of hand.

    I guess in a few weeks we will see if polling is truly “broken” or not.

  205. CG says:

    One Utah CD looks like it could be a Tossup. A big reason is that Trump backers will not support Mia Love, because she did not back Trump. There are severe divisions in the party.

    I hope Mia Love wins to say the least.

    Why in the world lisa are you going to vote for someone as loathsome as Keith Ellison?

  206. lisab says:

    Senator Cory Booker Accused of Sexual Assault by Gay Man
    —————————–

    cory “spartacus” booker: Do you like movies about gladiators?

  207. mnw says:

    Does core-eee worry about getting caught?

    Anyone have a clue where e “works”?

  208. Waingro says:

    “that is the robbie/corey dream

    but again

    if the dem is someone who wants to turn the country into a high tax welfare state

    people will vote for trump”

    Yes, but I could see an indy Kasich being a spoiler in siphoning off just enough much needed Trump votes in Ohio, Mich and Wisconsin.

    He wouldn’t have a prayer of winning the actual election, but he could help torpedo Trump, which may be the overall underlying goal.

  209. Florida Guy says:

    Depressing Q poll. It’s +3 GOP too.

  210. CG says:

    Is mnw trying to doxx me?

    Is that cool with y’all just because I express different views?

    and here I am trying to actually find an answer to his Murphysboro lawn chair question.

  211. CG says:

    Would tattling on me to my employer be more or less acceptable than the guy who called Bitterlaw’s wife?

  212. Waingro says:

    #218, troll alert.

  213. lisab says:

    Yes, but I could see an indy Kasich being a spoiler in siphoning off just enough much needed Trump votes in Ohio, Mich and Wisconsin.
    —————————–

    nah … that is just the corey/robbie dream

    and why they were floating nikki haley

    and

    everyone knows that if the dems elect a far left loon, our taxes will skyrocket, our 401k’s will go down, our borders will be completely open, and we will become a welfare state

    too many people have too much to lose to let the coreys and robbies run the country

    although they will of course push every third party they can prior to the election

  214. CG says:

    How can someone be an Ellison voter and a Trump voter? That is one thing that makes little sense.

    Unless lisab has been posing as a “utopian socialist” since 2005 or so, she may not be genuine about this new-found Trump support. Or there is something about backing Ellison and Trump I may not realize. They are both abusive to women is one thing they have in common.

  215. NYCmike says:

    “Why do people here assume that Trump cannot be beat by a Democrat?”

    -Who is assuming that?

    And, Lisab, Ellison or his opponent?

  216. CG says:

    Voting for the Republican nominee over Keith Ellison to be Attorney General of Minnesota may be the single easiest ballot decision in America this year, but lisab is unwilling apparently.

  217. lisab says:

    And, Lisab, Ellison or his opponent?
    —————————————-

    ellison is mired in his abuse scandal.

    hopefully he loses.

    however, i don’t follow any minnesota politics, so i don’t know how he is actually doing.

  218. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    What are these crimes against humanity which would make you say that Trump is such a bad person?

    Is it his sexual dalliances?

    If so, why do you still speak of Dennis Hastert in a way that is NOT as negative?

  219. lisab says:

    Minnesota Poll: Keith Ellison holds slim lead in attorney general’s race

    Many voters are undecided, with poll respondents unsure about allegation of domestic abuse.

  220. CG says:

    Dennis Hastert is a felon and a disgrace. What else do you want me to say? He is not in public life anymore. Do you think I was supposed to know what his deepest, darkest secrets were?

    I think the reasons for me believing that Trump is a bad person is well known and not worth the need to be re-stated. Either you get it or you don’t. In America, we all have to live with each other somehow.

    if lisab wants Ellison to lose, she should commit to voting for his Republican opponent. Why is that hard to do? Why not vote straight R in MN as Trump would like?

  221. Florida Guy says:

    Scott has responded to Q poll by releasing internals.

    Scott +5.5
    DeSantis +3

    https://rickscottforflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-Statewide-Survey-n2200.pdf

  222. DW says:

    As predicted, here is University of New Hampshire’s take on the two CDs there:

    NH_01

    Pappas (D) 46%
    Edwards (R) 37%

    NH_02

    Kuster (D) 53%
    Negron (R) 38%

    That’s a lot of undecided in NH_01–a seat still very much in play in my opinion.

  223. CG says:

    The credible abuse allegations against him aside, there are like two millions reasons to vote against Keith Ellison, for any office….

  224. Waingro says:

    #230, Florida Guy, so are you no longer “depressed”?

  225. Hugh says:

    First thing. This midterm it will be better than plus 3 republican.

  226. Todd McCain says:

    Florida numbers just got updated at 4 pm; GOP increased lead to 53K VBM and has a 1K lead in in person.

  227. DW says:

    The winner of NH_01 won’t be known until about 5:00 am the day after election day, as that is when the final tallies from rural areas are chiseled onto the stone tablets and arrive at the county seats by horse-drawn wagon.

    Hopefully they won’t have problems with dull chisels like they did counting votes in 2016.

  228. lisab says:

    as i have said, i don’t follow minnesota politics at all

    so i have not in any way decided who to vote for

    although, in 2020 if my choice is

    a.) trump
    b.) warren or harris or hillary
    c.) a third party designed to draw off votes for trump, i would then vote for trump

    and i voted for jill stein last time

  229. CG says:

    What’s there to “follow?” And how hard is it to follow the politics of a state you live in right before an election? You are into politics. It’s how you found this site over a decade ago.

    Trump is a Republican. He wants you to vote for Republicans. If you like Trump as much as you say, why not do it?

    I despise Trump every bit as much as I say, and I’m still going to do it.

    You live in a state where someone you vote for may actually win as a Republican.

  230. DW says:

    No surprise here: ND_01

    Schneider (D) 35%
    Armstrong (R) 56%

    Strategic Research Associates

  231. Jayhawker says:

    Here are some numbers off the Florida SOS website.
    First Column is the percentage of mail in votes received compared to 2016. Second column is the Rep vote percentage of the said votes in 2018
    Third Column is the Rep % in 2016, Forth is Rep % in 2014

    % of 2016 MV Rep 18 Rep 16 Rep 14
    Bay 4.16% 56.47% 56.82% 58.43%
    Calhoun 1.75% 66.67% 28.50% 26.68%
    Escambia 37.02% 52.89% 51.77% 54.70%
    Gulf 0.00% 0.00% 50.48% 42.59%
    Holmes 19.58% 62.91% 56.27% 41.53%
    Jackson 20.47% 42.32% 37.65% 30.56%
    Okaloosa 11.20% 60.34% 61.71% 67.65%
    Santa Rosa 28.83% 59.92% 62.46% 66.17%
    Walton 16.96% 65.33% 65.90% 66.44%
    Broward 27.39% 28.45% 24.58% 28.03%
    Hillsbough 34.34% 40.12% 36.67% 40.13%
    Miami-Dade 23.31% 40.32% 33.77% 41.24%
    Orange 30.82% 34.79% 32.12% 39.35%
    Palm Beach 18.78% 31.27% 29.17% 32.35%
    Pinellas 33.31% 41.71% 39.36% 41.18%
    Brevard 36.24% 46.32% 48.27% 51.39%
    Collier 54.59% 60.28% 56.85% 60.83%
    Duval 29.82% 48.52% 47.04% 51.71%
    Lee 46.09% 52.89% 51.84% 53.84%
    Manatee 40.42% 47.98% 47.79% 49.64%

    Analysis: The Mail in Vote has reached 34.25% of the 2016 Mail in vote total.

    The three gold coast counties are substantially below this average with Palm Beach reaching 18.78%, Miami-Dade 23.31% and Broward 27.39%.

    The panhandle only has one county above the state average which is Escambia with 37.02. Okaloosa is only at 11.20%, but the last date that was reported was 10/16.

    The I-4 corridor counties of Hillsburough, Pinellas, Orange are very close to the state average.

    Republican counties have above the state average. Most non-panhandle Republican counties listed have closer to the 2016 Rep vote percentage than the 2014 Rep vote percentage.

    The Republican vote percentages for the Democratic and (except for Orange), have closer to the 2014 Republican vote percentages.

  232. lisab says:

    What’s there to “follow?” And how hard is it to follow the politics of a state you live in right before an election?
    —————————-

    i actually have zero interest in minnesota politics

    because i mostly into massachusetts politics.

    de gustibus non est disputandum

  233. CG says:

    Massachusetts is part of America too.

    There is not a person who reads or posts on this site (political junkie types) who are unfamiliar with Keith Ellison. He has been talked about in the comments here a lot.

    How can you possibly entertain the thought or either voting for him or not doing what you can to try to stop him from winning? You are in a unique position to actually have an impact there.

    Are you ok with Keith Ellison posing with a pro-Antifa book that endorsed violence and endorsing it? His many ties to Louis Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam? His down the line far-left voting record in Congress?

    It sounds like maybe this pro-Trump stuff from you here, after years and years of “utopian socialism” and “Christians do evil things” is just you trying to fit in more??

    Not voting for Ellison’s GOP opponent, in a race where every vote can literally make the difference is far more crucial than if I ever vote for Trump in Illinois.

  234. Phil says:

    Today was the first day of early voting in Texas. Wife and I went down to the courthouse annex and waited in line about 50 minutes to vote. Lots of people there the first day. Older and whiter than the crowd in presidential years. Look like 2014 all over again.

  235. lisab says:

    There is not a person who reads or posts on this site (political junkie types) who are unfamiliar with Keith Ellison.
    ————————–

    well … there is one

  236. CG says:

    This past Labor Day, Keith Ellison marched publicly in a parade wearing a shirt that said “I Don’t Believe in Borders.”

    And possibly voting for him is cool with MAGAland?

  237. lisab says:

    This past Labor Day, Keith Ellison marched publicly in a parade wearing a shirt that said “I Don’t Believe in Borders.”
    ———————————-

    good to know …

  238. EML says:

    So lisab will vote Trump in 2020 but Corey won’t. Tells you everything you need to know about this deranged individual when a utopian socialist rejects the Democrat candidate.

  239. lisab says:

    So lisab will vote Trump in 2020 but Corey won’t. Tells you everything you need to know about this deranged individual when a utopian socialist rejects the Democrat candidate.
    —————————————

    let me clarify …

    i would vote for trump if the dem candidate is a crazy person who wants to raise my taxes, venezuela the economy, support tech billionaires, and give welfare to illegal aliens streaming over the open borders

    there is a lot of leeway there …

    i still hopeful cooler heads will prevail on the dem side.

  240. CG says:

    While I am flattered lisa that you have spent so much time looking into the archives of my blog (the hits from your ISP show on the Stats log), I think a little bit of time, two weeks before an election, can be put towards researching the candidates and issues in the state that you moved to.

    I know that you have almost never voted for a Republican before but it may be really important this time, right?

  241. lisab says:

    EML,

    country and family before party …

    lots of poor and middle class people, my family included, have benefited a LOT in this economy.

    no brown shirts or venezuela politicians need apply

  242. EML says:

    Today was the first day of early voting in Texas. Wife and I went down to the courthouse annex and waited in line about 50 minutes to vote. Lots of people there the first day. Older and whiter than the crowd in presidential years. Look like 2014 all over again.
    =====================================
    I will say that I can’t relate to these kinds of stories, except for the old white people. For the past 20 years of voting, wake up at 5:30, get ready for work, drive to the polling place 90 seconds away, be one of the first people in line, 20-30 years younger than everyone else, vote by 6:01, then on to work. Waiting an hour to vote? Move.

  243. EML says:

    i would vote for trump if the dem candidate is a crazy person who wants to raise my taxes, venezuela the economy, support tech billionaires, and give welfare to illegal aliens streaming over the open borders
    ============================
    Is there any other kind of Democrat in 2020?

  244. CG says:

    Work on getting her to vote for a Republican in 2018, before focusing on 2020.

    The 2018 nominees are already certified and the election is coming up closely.

  245. lisab says:

    i almost always vote at the last moment on election day

    never had to wait more than a few minutes

    which remeinds me i need to look up where my polling place is 🙂

  246. lisab says:

    which remeinds me i need to look up where my polling place is
    ————————

    and who the candidates are 🙂

  247. DW says:

    Wow Silver is now so far left of Cook, Sabato, and Gonzales, the three toupees, that he makes them look like right-wing radicals.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

    Looking here, scroll down through the forecasts side by side and see how absurdly left Silver has gone. He is completely ignoring polling at this point–just cheerleading.

  248. lisab says:

    he and corey both agree utah is a tossup

  249. Phil says:

    DW, today Silver increased the Democratic House seat pickup to 40 seats. He had it at 32 nine days ago. I am trying to get an idea what he is seeing over the last week or so. He has Democrats picking up 6 alone in California.

  250. mnw says:

    Jayhawker 240

    Useful info! Thx*.

    *(full disclosure: I think Maj. Quantrill had a lot of good ideas.)

  251. Bitterlaw says:

    Don’t forget that George Washington (unproven) and Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves. Surely both of those two things are worse than anything Trump has ever done.

    EML – I decided to leave the slaveowners (except for Jackson who was horrible in many ways) out of it. While I enjoy a good 300 post battle with Wes, I felt that the rest of HHR had other things to discuss.

  252. Skippy says:

    Florida VBM current 2018 numbers.
    Republicans 43.99%
    Democrats 38.32%

    Florida VBM 2014 numbers.
    Republicans 44.38%
    Democrats 37.58%

    Nice jump for Republicans from this mornings first update.

  253. mnw says:

    Here’s another video ad (NOT the same one I’ve posted before) about core-eee’s beloved “very strong” DEM challenger in IL-12:

    https://youtu.be/hr_ltx2uM4k

    corr-eeetroll will ignore this new one too. But THIS is why States Atty Brendan Kelly (D) stands naked before the world as the OPPOSITE of a “tough prosecutor.” All the locals KNEW this, but not our core-eee.

    Remember, corr-eee says “above all we need MORAL leaders!” …while stealing work time from his own employer.

  254. Bitterlaw says:

    From what I have read about it…Jefferson’s first wife died. He got into a relationship with…one of his slaves.

    I fixed it for DW.

  255. Skippy says:

    More good news for Republicans in Florida.

    First Day Current early voting in Okaloosa County 74% GOP
    Final 2014 early voting in Okaloosa County 71% GOP

  256. Bitterlaw says:

    Scott Wallace could wave the flag of Hamas and burn a torah in a synagogue and most of the Jews in the audience would still vote for him because he is a Democrat.

  257. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey will continue to refuse to acknowledge me even though I am the only here who ever defends him.

  258. mnw says:

    The first CLF ad from 2 weeks ago sank “strong challenger” Kelly:

    https://youtu.be/jgfhb4an4j8

    The second ad (above) is just a follow-up, for those who got tired of seeing the first one played endlessly.

    corr-eee would have u believe that Trump is coming to Murphysboro, IL because Bost (R-inc) needs help. That’s a coreeeetroll lie. Trump came to PA to say “thanks” to Barletta (who can’t win), & he’s coming to S. IL to say thanks* to Bost (who can’t lose).

    *(for Bost’s early support on tariffs & trade)

  259. Hugh says:

    Good news and bad news. 1st the good news. I voted today in a fairly republican part of broward late morning. It was very crowded with a bunch of middle aged and elderly white folks. Now the bad news the EV period extends through two weekends. I had that wrong. For tgca who knows my stumping grounds I vote at the coral ridge mall.

  260. CG says:

    267. I mentioned you twice today. Do a word search.

  261. mnw says:

    Phil

    RE: The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You:

    I hate to quibble about The Happening in Houston, but I think Trump (& Cruz) would’ve gotten some attention EVEN FROM THE MSM if they’s had it at the Speedway, & taken the risk that 125000 WOULD fill that sucker up.

    Now THAT would have compelled attention. I bet they coulda done it, too.

  262. CG says:

    Simply put, if Bost does not surpass his winning margin of 14 points from the last election, mnw will have proven he has no idea what he is talking about.

    Bost will win by about 5 points or so, but he is “AFL-CIO conservative” who is not exactly the future of the party.

  263. mnw says:

    corr-eeetroll

    I said go F yourself four times today. Do a word search.

  264. CG says:

    mnw, you truly are unhinged. I used to think it was the meds, but now I am not sure.

  265. mnw says:

    Watch the ads yet, zh*thead?

    or till “at work”? ARE YOU PROUD OF pimping for Brendan “Mr. Kelly”?

  266. CG says:

    What are you suggesting with the ad?

    A pro-Bost SuperPAC is running an ad against Kelly. That’s politics. That’s how the game works. A lot of Democrats are still going to vote for Kelly. What makes you insane is some imaginary insinuation that I have at any time expressed support for Kelly’s candidacy or suggested he was likely to win.

    The voices in your head are leading you to weird places.

  267. mnw says:

    I’m the kind of unhinged who worked for 35 years with police investigators. Think on it.

  268. CG says:

    My speculation is leading me no choice but to wonder if Kelly’s office prosecuted you for something and you hold a grudge for that reason.

    I am sure you were innocent!

  269. Tina says:

    Hillary would have easily filled up the Toyota Center.

    -Jebot

  270. EML says:

    Corey the Fauxcahontas supporter is calling someone unhinged? That’s rich.

  271. mnw says:

    Your “speculation” should lead you to believe that Kelly used to call me up & ask for favors, REGULARLY, with his hat in his hand, very politely.

    Thats what lil state prosecutors DO. You don’t know that.

    Call me a liar… please?

  272. CG says:

    Eric, nobody here seriously believes I am an Elizabeth Warren supporter.

  273. CG says:

    You had some sort of interaction with him mnw that is leading you to deny the pretty obvious fact that he was considered a top Dem recruit, whether he wins or not.

    Again, you are saying he will lose by more than 14 points, which is what the last person who lost to Bost lost by. If you turn out to be right, you will have bragging rights.

  274. mnw says:

    Please call me a liar. Just once. My interactions with Mr. Kelly are described above in 281.

  275. CG says:

    I think you may be innocent of being a liar via insanity.

    But I’m not on a jury.

  276. mnw says:

    You are a coward.

  277. CG says:

    Why don’t you just wait two weeks and a day or so to see if Bost wins by more than 14 points or not.

    If so, you can gloat to your heart’s content and keep reminding me of it. I will admit you were right.

    If not though, you have to accept the facts. I am willing to wager on it for charity.

  278. mnw says:

    You are a coward.

    But it wise of you not to cross the line, though.

  279. jason says:

    (We can also get into the hypocritical nerve you have for attacking Bitterlaw’s choice to attend Mass)”

    I see Corey is still lying.

    I NEVER attacked Bitter’s choice to attend Mass, never.

    I attack Bitter for thinking what the communist Pope says that is not church related doesn’t matter.

    Then he always says, should I not go to Mass?

    I hope he goes to Mass and criticizes the communist Pope.

  280. CG says:

    The more you type about this, the more obvious it is that it is eating you up. It’s not something I wish to continue. I feel sorry for you. Something is going on.

    But if it makes you feel better, yes, you are a liar, if you are suggesting I ever posted that I wanted Kelly to win or that Kelly would win.

    I just think the more likely explanation is that you are confused.

    Try to find something to make yourself calmer. This is the internet.

  281. EML says:

    Eric, nobody here seriously believes I am an Elizabeth Warren supporter.
    ============================
    Corey the Fauxcahontas supporter, I have never made my identity a secret. Anyone with a minutes worth of facebook ability can find me. Unlike you, I don’t accuse others of doxxing me.

  282. CG says:

    I think Bitter would express the belief you criticized him for attending Mass. That’s how I read it. It’s really none of your business how he worships.

    It’s hypocritical to an extreme degree if you dislike the current Pope so much but still call yourself a Catholic.

    I believe that is the right of someone to have that belief though, just like I can dislike the current President so much and still call myself a Republican (the party you bragged about leaving.)

  283. EML says:

    I will back up jason’s 10 bucks with 10 bucks of mine own on who wins the house, 100-1 since its such a sure thing.

  284. CG says:

    I didn’t think it was anymore a secret than what my first name is.

  285. CG says:

    If someone can be a good Catholic and criticize the current Pope, which while it is not really anything relevant to me, I understand on an intellectual level, then someone can criticize the current President and still be a good conservative or a good Republican.

    The Pope is likely to be around longer too.

    I am sorry the last Papal Conclave did not go the way you wanted jason.

  286. CG says:

    I maintain that Republicans have about a 20 percent chance of keeping the House.

    A 100-1 bet is ridiculous for me if I believe the odds are so different.

  287. EML says:

    Then why are you so worried about being doxxed?

  288. EML says:

    How about 20-1? You are so sure Dems win

  289. CG says:

    I’m not really concerned, but mnw is saying he wants to find out where I work and try to get me fired. That would be unprecedented for HHR and would set a pretty bad example to say the least.

    My first name is fine to use, although CG is quicker to type. I think last names, etc should be off limits unless someone openly discusses it here (such as Walt or Hodges)

  290. CG says:

    Give me the dollar amounts you suggest to wager as to whether or not Democrats will hold 218 U.S. House seats or more when Congress returns in January 2019.

    I will consider it, for charity.

  291. Tina says:

    My first name is fine to use, although CG is quicker to type. I think last names, etc should be off limits unless someone openly discusses it here (such as Walt or Hodges)

    What about my “last name” that you cited here from the Rp site?

    If last names were off limits, why did you mention it?

  292. CG says:

    I didn’t say the name, only that it was an Hispanic sounding name. I assumed it wasn’t really yours and said so. You did give permission to have that be your posted identity in the “About Us” section of the website.

    I don’t even think your name is Tina.

  293. EML says:

    You posted here as Corey for years. That’s what I know you as. I have no idea about you last name or how to find you on social media. I have only posted as EML, although my first and last names are not secrets.

    At 20-1 odds, I will bet whatever you want to bet, $10, $20, $50, $100. My donations go to Be the Match.

  294. Tina says:

    No, you typed it.

    That is why everybody here thinks you are a liar.

  295. Cash Cow TM says:

    If they are serious about winning, Dems need to step up their game in the next few weeks. Perhaps they might consider:

    –burn some U.S. fags
    –burn the U.S. Constitution
    –demand free college education for all
    –demand free health care for all
    demand legalization of all drugs–and give them to everyone for free
    –demand open borders and throw eggs at US. Border Patrol
    –attack more GOP congresspeople who are peacefully eating dinner at some restaurant
    –demand that all police in America must be disarmed
    –demand that all men are guilty of whatever charge against them and despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
    [this obviously does not apply to any minority males or gay guys]

    –“Prius in every garage and tofu in every pot!”

  296. mnw says:

    If I wanted to get that little troll fired, he’d know it.

  297. CG says:

    Ok, 20-1 on $50?

    I thought the idea is the loser has to donate to the winner’s charity of choice?

  298. Cash Cow TM says:

    So lisab has been run out of MA and fled from NY?

  299. lisab says:

    From what I have read about it…Jefferson’s first wife died. He got into a relationship with…one of his slaves.
    —————–

    actually it could have been his brother

  300. CG says:

    Have a good night everyone. I’ll check back soon enough.

  301. EML says:

    Yes, you will give me 20-1 odds on Dems winning the House. Dems get to 218 seats, I will donate $50 to your charity of choice. Republicans win 218 seats, you will give $1000 to my charity (Be the Match).

  302. lisab says:

    Eric, nobody here seriously believes I am an Elizabeth Warren supporter.
    ——————–

    only in the sense she is a democrat and therefore you would support her

    you would rather have hillary i am sure

  303. CG says:

    No, I am not betting $1000 with those odds.

    I will wager up to $50. I don’t like Democrats.

  304. lisab says:

    I think Bitter would express the belief you criticized him for attending Mass. That’s how I read it.
    ————————

    yeah … but you also read utah as a tossup

  305. CG says:

    Man up and make it 5-1.

    Are you afraid of losing $10 to charity?

  306. lisab says:

    It’s hypocritical to an extreme degree if you dislike the current Pope so much but still call yourself a Catholic.
    ——————————–

    actually not … the pope is not the church

  307. CG says:

    Donald Trump is not the Republican Party (nor the country itself)

    Precisely my point.

  308. EML says:

    Are you afraid of losing $10 to charity?
    ==========================
    I am offering $50 at 20-1. You believe Dems winning the House is a done deal, you should be jumping at the opporunity for 50 bucks. That’s my offer if you are so sure.

  309. lisab says:

    So lisab has been run out of MA and fled from NY?
    ———————————–

    actually, hubby got a huge job in mn, his raise was more than i made in salary

    sooooooooo … off to the midwest again 🙂

  310. Bitterlaw says:

    I am not a fan of the Pope’s political views. Those views are irrelevant to my belief in the resurrection and transubstantiation.

  311. Mr.Vito says:

    “burn some U.S. fags”

    Dayum.

  312. lisab says:

    Donald Trump is not the Republican Party (nor the country itself)

    Precisely my point.
    —————————–

    yes but EML is not trying to overthrow the pope or guarantee that a muslim imam take over the vatican

    the way you are doing everything you can to make sure democrats win the white house

  313. CG says:

    I am not wagering any more than $50 on 20-1 odds.

    I will pay $50 if I lose. I suppose you only want to risk $2.50. Bold move. Fine.

  314. mnw says:

    We let that little troll dominate HHR all day long today.

  315. lisab says:

    trump is killing it at the cruz rally

  316. EML says:

    You are the one who is absolutely certain Dems will win the House. Put your money where your mouth is.

  317. CG says:

    I don’t know EML’s views on the Pope. I was talking about jason.

    Both jason and Robbie want the Pope to resign. NeverFrancis unites them.

    I want Trump to resign. It’s the same deal. I am not for overthrowing the U.S. government Don’t be ridiculous.

  318. CG says:

    I’m 80 percent certain, but after my experience with jason on 100-1 odds, I don’t feel comfortable making a larger wager on something that I don’t even want to happen.

    If you go 1-1, I will bet $1000 for charity. I know that a worthy cause will win.

  319. lisab says:

    We let that little troll dominate HHR all day long today
    —————————————-

    mnw,

    it is fun mocking him

    he literally called utah a tossup “at one point”

    ummmmmmmm … yeah …. the day before the election!!!!!

    he thinks he is smart, but once you know he is a lying little troll, it is pretty easy to catch his little lies and point them out.

    just imagine how horrific high school must have been for him!

  320. CG says:

    Nobody here honestly thinks I qualify as a “troll.”

    If so, you have crazy insecurities about having your views challenged.

  321. EML says:

    Moving the goalposts as always. 100-1 to 50-1 to 20-1 to 1-1. Coward. If you are so certain, you would give the odds.

  322. CG says:

    If I win, you pay $10 to charity
    If you win, I pay $50 to charity.

    Seems very fair. I think you can handle $10.

  323. lisab says:

    I want Trump to resign. It’s the same deal. I am not for overthrowing the U.S. government Don’t be ridiculous.
    ———————–

    no you don’t want to overthrow the government

    you want to get rid of trump or any republican in the white house

  324. EML says:

    And about 4 hours ago, you said you were rooting for a dem takeover of the house. Now you say you dont want it to happen

  325. lisab says:

    Nobody here honestly thinks I qualify as a “troll.”
    ————————–

    not a brothers grimm troll

    but an internet troll for the dems

    oh yeah

  326. mnw says:

    lisab

    He lacks self-awareness. See post 330.

    Some poor employer is unwittingly paying him to trollblog all day long.

  327. jason says:

    It’s hypocritical to an extreme degree if you dislike the current Pope so much but still call yourself a Catholic.”

    LOL

    I am not a Catholic. Never called myself a Catholic.

    You really are unhinged.

  328. lisab says:

    Moving the goalposts as always. 100-1 to 50-1 to 20-1 to 1-1.
    —————————–

    you said the dems would win 40 seats …

    that seems like easy money for you corey

    unless you don’t really believe that

  329. EML says:

    Since you are so sure and it’s 10 bucks, give me 10-1.
    Seems very fair. I think you can handle $100.

  330. CG says:

    I want a Republican in the White House other than Trump. I do not support anything illegal or unconstitutional. Don’t be ridiculous.

  331. CG says:

    Never said I was rooting for a Dem takeover of the House. I said was agnostic about the overall result.

    In 435 individual districts, i want the best candidate to win, R, D, or I.

    For me that’s going to easily be more than 218 Republicans.

  332. jason says:

    Both jason and Robbie want the Pope to resign.”

    I never called on the Pope to resign. Never.

    I called him a communist.

    Corey is batting 0%, as usual.

  333. CG says:

    So if jason is not a Catholic, it’s even worse of him to criticize what Catholics choose to believe or how they go about it. Criticism of the Pope on religious grounds should be the purview of Catholics.

    All I know is Francis is Pro-Life and has appointed Pro-Life Cardinals. That’s really all that should matter. Nancy Pelosi would be a far worse Pope.

  334. jason says:

    Never said I was rooting for a Dem takeover of the House.”

    You said if Dems win the HOuse you will not be unhappy.

    That means you will not be unhappy with Pelosi as Speaker.

    Stop lying.

  335. lisab says:

    Some poor employer is unwittingly paying him to trollblog all day long.
    ——————-

    yeah, but i doubt he does much

  336. CG says:

    When did I say 40 seats?

    Last week I said it might be about 30, but I was going to go race by race. Right now, I am through Florida, and they have gained 7.

  337. lisab says:

    I want a Republican in the White House other than Trump. I do not support anything illegal or unconstitutional. Don’t be ridiculous.
    ————————————-

    well we all remember how much you attacked hillary during the campaign …

    oh wait …

  338. CG says:

    That’s quite a leap to say that you have to root for something in order not to be unhappy.

    You guys need better material.

  339. jason says:

    o if jason is not a Catholic, it’s even worse of him to criticize what Catholics choose to believe or how they go about it. Criticism of the Pope on religious grounds should be the purview of Catholics.”

    I never criticized any Catholics for what they believe in. Or the Pope on “religious grounds”.

    I think Catholics that don’t oppose the Pope’s political statements are naive. And I am strongly critical of the Popes’s war against wealth and capitalism and his crusade for global warming and socialism.

    Still batting 0%.

  340. lisab says:

    So if jason is not a Catholic, it’s even worse of him to criticize what Catholics choose to believe or how they go about it. Criticism of the Pope on religious grounds should be the purview of Catholics.
    ————————–

    that is not even the position of the catholic church

  341. CG says:

    Since lisa has been reading my 2016 blog archives all day, she will see how much I criticized Hillary as well. I do hope lisa can decide to not vote for Keith Ellison or maybe even vote against him.

  342. EML says:

    We gotta deal? $10 @ 10-1?

  343. lisab says:

    Last week I said it might be about 30
    ——————————————-

    so still easy money then

  344. CG says:

    So you are a non Catholic who demands Catholics criticize the current Pope and you are non-Republican who demands Republicans support the current President.

    Makes perfect sense.

  345. CG says:

    Either 10-1 on $50 or 5-1 on $100. You pick.

  346. lisab says:

    wait

    i thought it was 100 to 1?

  347. ReadyFirst says:

    Eric, nobody here seriously believes I am an Elizabeth Warren supporter.
    ____________________________________________

    A couple shots, a little bit of rubbing the thighs… meh… I’m not so sure she couldn’t get you.

  348. CG says:

    And again, I don’t even expect Pelosi to be Speaker. (She may have a title like Speaker-Emeritus) but I am agnostic on the matter.

    The Senate is more important. Governorships are more important. State legislatures are more important.

    Trump’s campaign people I am sure are the ones who actually want Pelosi to become Speaker and I don’t blame them for that political calculation.

  349. jason says:

    You want to overturn the results of the election.

    Same as Amoral Scumbag.

    Why? Because he kicked the crap out out the most pathetic “front runner” in primary history.

    It’s still about Jeb!. Nothing else.

  350. CG says:

    I want to overturn the result of the election at the next election. That’s democracy. But more than that, I hope he doesn’t run.

    The people here who now defend Trump but who before the 2016 election were openly wishing death upon him are the ones who have more to answer for.

  351. jason says:

    So you are a non Catholic who demands Catholics criticize the current Pope and you are non-Republican who demands Republicans support the current President.”

    I don’t demand anything.

    I think any conservative who supports the communist pope or doesn’t support Trump when its in their interest is a moron.

    That includes you.

  352. lisab says:

    so 100 to 1?

  353. jason says:

    Name one person here who “wished death on Trump”.

    One.

    Should be easy.

  354. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.99%
    Democrats 38.32%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 44.05%
    Democrats 38.28%

  355. CG says:

    So what you are showing is that whether it’s a Church or a country, you only see things in terms of a single personality and there can be no gray areas, etc. I disagree. But you are wrong to attack Bitterlaw for going to Mass. It’s his choice,and he needs something.

  356. jason says:

    I want to overturn the result of the election at the next election.”

    Another lie. You said Trump should resign, when there is absolutely no reason he should resign.

    He won the election legitimately and is entitled to serve his term, unless you believe in the impeachment garbage.

  357. ReadyFirst says:

    Jeb was better than Lawton Chiles, but I’m glad he’s gone.

  358. CG says:

    It makes no difference to me whether the Pope is a Communist or not. He has no Army and is no threat to America.

    Probably, he’s merely a socialist. Trump has those tendencies too.

    If he is so different on economic issues but still follows traditional church teachings on social issues like abortion, that makes him very much like Trump.

    The Pope is probably actually serious about being Pro-Life though

  359. CG says:

    People who wished for Trump to have a heart attack or “widow maker” were wishing death upon him. It was more than one person. Wes said he wanted the same for Hillary and Trump. I replied that it would cause Bill to hit on Melania.

  360. CG says:

    Resignation is a constitutional lawful thing.

    If he doesn’t resign, I hope he doesn’t seek reelection.

    Why does this offend you so much?

  361. lisab says:

    People who wished for Trump to have a heart attack or “widow maker” were wishing death upon him
    ————–
    so who exactly?

  362. jason says:

    But you are wrong to attack Bitterlaw for going to Mass. It’s his choice,and he needs something.”

    I never attacked Bitter for going to Mass, or any other person here for going to any service. Even though I am not religious, I always defended people of faith here. Always. I have had many arguments with lisab over what I view were here attacks on Christians.

    When I attack Bitter’s passivity towards the Communist Pople, he says he can do nothing and should he stop going to Mass.

    Not once did I ever say “you should stop going to Mass”.

  363. CG says:

    Wes spoke of the “widow maker”. jason spoke generically that “we will be lucky if something happens to him before the election.”

  364. jason says:

    So who “wished death on Trump”?

    Let’s have one name.

  365. mnw says:

    Phil!!!

    I been sent to spread the message!

    I mean…DAMN!

  366. CG says:

    What is Bitterlaw supposed to do to “stop the Pope?”

    Why is that his responsibility? I understand exactly why he responded to you the way he did.

    His overall faith should take priority over whatever issues you have with the Pope. The Church itself to him is clearly more important than the Pope at any given time. That is how it should be.

    Just like I believe I am still a conservative and a Republican without capitulating to Trump.

  367. jason says:

    son spoke generically that “we will be lucky if something happens to him before the election.”

    Show me the post where I said I wanted something bad to happen to Trump.

    I would never say that.

    I remember always saying that I thought he had a nice family, he had a 10 year old son, never would I wish him dead.

    You really are a despicable liar.

  368. jason says:

    Just like I believe I am still a conservative and a Republican without capitulating to Trump.”

    LOL

    You already capitulated to Nancy Pelosi.

  369. lisab says:

    i don’t know …

    idon’t remembernjason wishing death on trump

    can you post the actual quote please

  370. CG says:

    That’s what I recall. You said many, many bad things about him. Far stronger on the personal feelings than me. (maybe MD had you beat) If you say it was not you, I will take this into consideration, but I certainly never advocated “overturning an election.”

  371. CG says:

    Maybe it was a stroke. People were saying lots of things along those lines I thought was in very bad taste. I wish the archives were easier to search via Google, as they used to be.

  372. jason says:

    What is Bitterlaw supposed to do to “stop the Pope?”

    I think he gives the Pope a pass.

    But he will deny that, actually.

    That is basically the argument.

    You have it completely wrong, I never questioned his faith or told him not to go to Mass.

    So Bitter, did I ever tell you not to go to Mass?

  373. CG says:

    jason certainly had no qualms in saying Trump was a racist and used the Judge Curiel example.

  374. mnw says:

    379 lisab

    The “actual quote” is right next to the one where I posted that “Bost will win by 12%”

  375. CG says:

    He gives the Pope a pass, you guys give Trump multiple passes.

    What’s the difference?

    Well, people can draw their own conclusions but I think matters of religious faith are a bit more personal than political disagreements over the direction of a party or country.

    I am glad you think it is ok that he goes to Mass. That might be news to him.

  376. jason says:

    Maybe it was a stroke.”

    Ahh, goalposts are moving.

    But I never wished a stroke on Trump either.

    Actually, even politicians like I truly despise like Obama and Hillary and Pelosi, I never said I wished something bad should happen to them.

  377. lisab says:

    you made a very specific charge

    that jason called down death on trump

    so … exactly what did he post?

    just copy and paste it …

  378. CG says:

    Not long ago, NYC said he walked out of Mass, in protest of the Catholic priest scandal.

    That is completely his right. I would never tell him how to practice his religion.

    But if he can walk out of the church, I can walk out on Donald Trump.

  379. jason says:

    Well for one the Pope is a communist bent on destroying the capitalist system, Trump is a President who is doing a lot of things in the interest of conservatives, and in defense of the capitalist system.

    I think that is a huge difference

  380. lisab says:

    Maybe it was a stroke.”

    well … post that then

  381. CG says:

    I know what Wes said (about Trump and Hillary) I will give jason the benefit of the doubt that I might be wrong in remembering, but jason was extremely anti-Trump during the campaign. I know for sure he stated his heartfelt belief that Trump was racist in the campaign.

  382. CG says:

    About three years ago, it was very easy to find things in the archives, using Google and certain words. Now, if you do not know what day something was posted, it is impossible to find it.

  383. lisab says:

    I will give jason the benefit of the doubt that I might be wrong in remembering
    —————————————–

    sooooooooo, just to be clear

    you possibly are wrong that jason did not wish death on trump

    but he probably did?

  384. jason says:

    jason certainly had no qualms in saying Trump was a racist and used the Judge Curiel example.”

    Finally we have a statement that is true.

    I thought calling Curiel “a Mexican” was racist.

    I thought his attacks on McCain’s military service were despicable.

    But I don’t have to agree with everything he says, said, did, or does to support him as President where I think he deserves it.

  385. CG says:

    There are other issues besides capitalism of course. I think Trump is doing a lot of things to try to destroy the American values I believe in.

    You don’t have to believe that, even though you did during the campaign, but you should be willing to accept that some Republicans still do believe that.

  386. CG says:

    I also support what he does as President where I think he deserves it (and you even acknowledged as much about me not long ago) and I have defended him online and elsewhere from what I feel are unfair or irrelevant attacks against him.

    That still means I dislike him, apparently a lot more than you. That’s just something you have to accept.

  387. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason did not explicitly tell me to not go to Mass. he criticized me for supporting the Pope BY going to Mass. He does not separate attendance from support. He also has this delusional idea that I have any impact on the Pope. I have repeatedly said I do not support his political statements AND my lack of support has no influence on the Pope.

  388. CG says:

    “He does not separate attendance from support.”

    That’s where the hypocrisy comes in as it relates to how Republicans or Americans in general must approach Trump.

  389. jason says:

    “I will give jason the benefit of the doubt that I might be wrong in remembering”

    You are wrong.

    I opposed Trump vociferously, but never wished him death or a stroke or heart attack or accident… never.

  390. CG says:

    I have to admit to being surprised jason does not or did not recently consider himself a Catholic.

    I thought anyone who would be so negative towards a Catholic in how they viewed their church or their current Pope would be more of a stakeholder in the argument at least.

  391. lisab says:

    but never wished him death or a stroke or heart attack or accident… never.
    —————————————–

    well corey is saying you probably did

    although he cannot actually find the post

  392. ReadyFirst says:

    In a daily early-voting assessment, the Florida Chamber of Commerce noted independents in Broward, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Lee and Pinellas counties accounted for about 45 percent of the returns from voters without political affiliations.

    “This is notable because it means that NPAs in conservative areas like Lee are returning ballots,” a release from the chamber said. “Older blue collar (no party affiliation) voters are a key part of the [Donald] Trump coalition that [Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron] DeSantis must turn out.”

  393. CG says:

    399, Ok, and neither did or do I. We can agree to agree on that.

    I also do not support military coups or rescinding elections or anything illegal or unconstitutional or somehow making Hillary Clinton President ex post facto.

    The person I wish to become President tonight, (through peaceful, healthy means) is Michael Pence.

  394. ReadyFirst says:

    On a side note, this is a cool set of interactive charts from the FL Chamber of Commerce.
    https://www.flchamber.com/political/elections/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-reports/

  395. jason says:

    e criticized me for supporting the Pope BY going to Mass. ”

    Even that is not quite right.

    I never said that.

    I criticized you for giving the Pope a pass and for saying should I stop going to Mass.

    So I would say the Pope just called money the root of all evil but Bitter just goes to Mass.

    It didn’t mean going to Mass meant you supported the Pope, and it didn’t mean you should not go to Mass.

  396. lisab says:

    Ok, and neither did or do I.
    ——————-

    so then why did you say he posted that if you did not think ot true?

  397. jason says:

    Mike Pence was not elected President.

    He is free to run against Trump if he wants.

    Until then, Trump is the legitimate President.

  398. Bitterlaw says:

    I do not care about jason’s religion. Anybody who loves llamas so much has a beautiful soul. Or is a si k bastard. One must be true.

  399. CG says:

    If Catholicism means a lot to someone, A)a non-Catholic should not really have anything to say on the matter, and B), they should continue going to church, regardless of what they believe about Francis’s economic views.

    Since conservatism and American continue to mean a lot to me, I will stay in the Republican Party (which is something jason bragged that he could not do) continue to vote Republican, as I plan to in the midterms, and continue to advocate for change in the Republican Party as soon as possible.

    And you folks can fight to defend DJT as much as you want to.

    Bye for now.

  400. Bitterlaw says:

    Saying that I disagree with the Pope’s political statements is giving him a free pass? I love this place.

    Maybe Jason should be Jewish. The Amish and Hasidim have similar taste in hats and beards.

  401. ReadyFirst says:

    Bitter, I didn’t get a chance to say it, but thanks for the well wishes the other day for my family. Back at ya man.

  402. jason says:

    think Trump is doing a lot of things to try to destroy the American values I believe in.”

    I can’t think of one American value Trump is “trying to destroy”, what a load of crap.

    I disagree with some of his policies, but that has nothing to do with values.

    He seems like a strong defender of American values, exceptionalism, patriotism, 2nd Amendment, etc.

    What American value is he trying to destroy?

    I can think of many Nancy Pelosi is trying to destroy.

  403. jason says:

    Corey made about 25 statements in a row that had no basis in fact.

    I guess he ran out of them and had to leave.

  404. jason says:

    Republican Party (which is something jason bragged that he could not do) ..

    Make that 26.

    I never bragged about that, in fact I was pretty sad about it.

  405. jason says:

    I will give jason the benefit of the doubt that I might be wrong in remembering, but jason was extremely anti-Trump during the campaign.”

    Truly hilarious.

    Being anti-Trump means I wished death on him?

    Geezus.

  406. lisab says:

    oldie but a goodie
    —————-

    Corey says:
    As of today, I think Trump takes AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE (statewide), ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, and WY.

    That’s it. 17 states. May even wind up less. I am not going to do the math.

    Corey says:
    Ok, I did the math 401-136. Maybe McMullin takes Utah and holds Hillary under 400.

  407. ReadyFirst says:

    Jason, just out of curiosities sake, why did you oppose Trump in the primary? I opposed him because I thought he was going to be a huge leftist in office and because I thought he was a bumbling, crude candidate.

  408. lisab says:

    If Catholicism means a lot to someone, A)a non-Catholic should not really have anything to say on the matter,
    —————————–

    corey seems to have a lot to say about catholicism

  409. Mr.Vito says:

    Lyon County reported its Day1 number in Nevada and netted about another 500 toward the GOP.

    So, final Dem advantage through Day2 is 4.4%.
    Dem reg. advantage is 4.8% statewide.

  410. lisab says:

    Corey made about 25 statements in a row that had no basis in fact.

    I guess he ran out of them and had to leave.
    ——————————

    well his dungeons and dragons group waits for no troll 🙂

  411. lisab says:

    Corey says:

    Hopefully Trump will be the past very soon, but that does not mean he should be forgotten.

    To forget history is to repeat it. Let’s see if his supporters actually accept the results of the election.

  412. lisab says:

    oh the irony

  413. NYCmike says:

    “Not long ago, NYC said he walked out of Mass, in protest of the Catholic priest scandal.”

    -This is not correct.

    I said I walked out because the priest, in his homily, was giving an opinion-filled tirade against “some people” in the church. It was like a political debate, but one in which the crowd could not even disagree, or ask questions.

    The child molestation issues are real, and there are several political factions in the church who refuse to simply name names and have those guilty ask for forgiveness. It is disgusting! And if a priest is going to rant about on the pulpit, he just better be ranting about those who are guilty not confessing their sins, and asking their victims for forgiveness.

  414. mnw says:

    416 lisab

    So why do people here click on his trollblog, then? (talking to you, jason)

    Or care about his analysis of ANYTHING? Any more than Vichey’s or three iii’s?

  415. CG says:

    “I said I walked out because the priest, in his homily, was giving an opinion-filled tirade against “some people” in the church. It was like a political debate, but one in which the crowd could not even disagree, or ask questions.”

    Ok, so you can understand then why I feel like I do about Trump and Trumpism.

  416. lisab says:

    Corey says:
    “Surviving” being a relative term, since he is headed for a probable landslide loss.

    dblaikie says:
    Corey, I will wait for the actual votes to come in. I am not as all-knowing and all-seeing as you and MD are. Three weeks is long time in politics.

    Corey says:
    Well, when the votes come in, are you going to cry that they are rigged?

    dblaikie says:
    Corey, Corey, once again you put words into my mouth. Of course I will accept the votes as they come in. Will you?

    Corey says:
    Sure I will. If you accept them, I won’t say otherwise to you moving forward.
    ————————————-

    i am not sure corey was being truthful

  417. lisab says:

    lisab

    So why do people here click on his trollblog, then?
    ———————————

    to catch him lying

  418. CG says:

    Another myth; that I somehow said the election results were illegitimate.

  419. mnw says:

    Schweikart has a 15-part tweet up just now.

    He attaches great significance to the fact that (as he asserts) the DCCC is going back into the Blum (IA) & Comstock (VA) districts making NEW ad buys.

    Definitely worth checking out.

  420. lisab says:

    that I somehow said the election results were illegitimate.
    ————————–

    that is not the same as acceptance

    who is your president corey? go on, you can say his name …

  421. lisab says:

    maybe corey, robbie and md could starta 12 step tds program?

  422. jason says:

    In case anybody thinks political discourse has gone to hell, read this editorial in the Charleston Mercury in 1860, about Abraham Lincoln.

    “A horrid looking wretch he is, sooty and scoundrelly in aspect, a cross between the nutmeg dealer, the horse swapper, and the night man, a creature ‘fit evidently for petty treason, small stratagems and all sorts of spoils.’ He is a lanksides Yankee of the uncomeliest visage, and of the dirtiest complexion. Faugh! After him, what decent white man would be President?”

  423. CG says:

    I don’t claim a President as “my President” unless I voted for them. So that applied to Clinton and Obama as well.

    I know who the current President is. I always wish for them to lead to the best of their ability. He won legitimately. He looks like a fool when he claims that millions of votes were illegally cast against him.

  424. CG says:

    GWB has been called worse on here.

  425. lisab says:

    I don’t claim a President as “my President” unless I voted for them.
    ———————————

    well that is not acceptance

    now i ask you all, is that acceptance?

  426. CG says:

    MD has become a Democrat. Robbie and I are actually voting Republican and advocating for the future of the party.

    lisab, a lifelong Democrat, isn’t willing to vote for any Republicans in Minnesota yet, not even against Keith Ellison.

  427. CG says:

    Well, i was accused of not accepting Obama either.

    Trump is our President. He isn’t “my President.” One day he will not be any of ours. I hope the next one is far better and more worthy.

  428. mnw says:

    Sen. Tina Smith should not have skipped the scheduled debate with Housley in MN. A mistake, imo, no matter how far ahead she thinks she is.

  429. lisab says:

    lisab, a lifelong Democrat
    ———————————

    show me the post where i have claimed to be a democrat, nevermind a lifelong democrat

    i’ll wait

  430. Tina says:

    Phil,

    How many folks at the rally? Somebody on Twitter claimed 90000.

    I would think 30000 in and out?

  431. ReadyFirst says:

    429. Where they’re campaigning is a very good sign.

  432. lisab says:

    it’s probably in the same place where jason wished death on trump

  433. CG says:

    You said you always vote and that you have voted precisely three times for Republicans. Yes, you did vote for Jill Stein as well.

    Maybe life-long leftist is better.

    Now, is there any reason at all why you cannot vote for Keith Ellison’s Republican opponent? Is it because he might be a Christian?

  434. jason says:

    Jason, just out of curiosities sake, why did you oppose Trump in the primary? I opposed him because I thought he was going to be a huge leftist in office and because I thought he was a bumbling, crude candidate”

    I thought he couldn’t win. Same reason I was so opposed to Jeb Bush.. and Ben Carson when he went into a little run in the polls. And yes, I thought he was a liberal Democrat based on his prior statements and party registration.

  435. lisab says:

    Now, is there any reason at all why you cannot vote for Keith Ellison’s Republican opponent?
    ———————–

    i don’t know who his opponent is

  436. CG says:

    His name is Doug Wardlow. He is a social conservative. Is that a deal breaker for you?

  437. Tina says:

    President Trump: You know what’s happening right now is a large group of people, called a caravan. (Boos) You know how this caravan started? You know what this means? (gestures cash payouts) I think the Democrats had something to do with it. And now they’re saying, I think we made a big mistake. We see how bad it is. How pathetic it is. How bad our laws are. They made a big mistake. And look that is an assault on our country. And in that caravan you have some very bad people. And we can’t let that happen to our House.

  438. Tina says:

    Why would the Drats pay for the invaders?

    Certainly the Drats would not do something that reinforces the Rs create jobs, the drat create mobs, or would they?

  439. jason says:

    I give Corey a break on the “my President” thing since I never considered Obama “my President”.

    However, even though I did not support or vote for Trump, he is my President. I think he has earned that.

  440. Phil says:

    Hard to say, Tina. I’ve heard all kinds of numbers. It was a pretty massive event. Lots of local Republican candidates given a bit of a lift.

    I will tell you one thing. There were a helluva lot of Republicans fired up and voting at my early voting center today in Huntsville, Tx – talked with quite a few and to a person they were all happy we only have to listen to Beto for two more weeks.

  441. lisab says:

    I give Corey a break on the “my President” thing since I never considered Obama “my President”.
    ————————

    i’d like to

    except he was all smug about how he hoped dblaikie would accpt the election

  442. CG says:

    After becoming more familiar with db, I think he would have accepted the results, even if he didn’t like them. Some others here would not have. I doubt Trump himself would have.

  443. Bitterlaw says:

    I was one of Trump’s harshest critics in 2015 and 2016. The only reason I was not a Never Trumper because I was Never Hillary above all else.

  444. lisab says:

    He is a social conservative. Is that a deal breaker for you?
    —————————–

    is there a green, libertarian, or socialist candidate?

  445. jason says:

    The caravan is certainly orchestrated.

    If these people could afford to travel for weeks on end and over a thousand miles they probably would not be in the caravan.

    Somebody is supporting them.

  446. jason says:

    Yep, Bitter hated Trump. Still does.

    And he didn’t vote for Trump, he voted against Hillary.

  447. lisab says:

    After becoming more familiar with db, I think he would have accepted the results, even if he didn’t like them. Some others here would not have.
    ————————

    you mean some others like … do you have a mirror?

  448. mnw says:

    MT SEN

    Tester (D) 46
    Rosendale (R) 43
    Libertarian (L) 3

    This is a MT State Univ mail-in only poll, & it’s 2000 RVs, not LVs.

    The link is 2 full lines of type. I’m too tired to copy it, but the link is in the comments at RRH, fyi.

  449. CG says:

    Yes lisa, there is a Libertarian candidate and a “Legalize Marijuana Now” candidate for Attorney General, as well as a Communist running as a write-in.

    You should legitimately vote your conscience, but if you do not vote for the Republican, merely to stop Ellison, then you are doing what I did in 2016 and will perhaps do in 2020.

    The main difference though is that your vote in this race might actually matter.

  450. CG says:

    I accepted the election results right off the bat. I said I was surprised and not happy, but I accepted them and I praised Trump’s “victory speech” as well.

  451. Bitterlaw says:

    456 Finally! He gets it now.

  452. jason says:

    The caravan reminds of the “flotilla” that went to Israel. Well, they never got there actually. But at the time we suggested Bunu should join it.

    I now suggest Proud ObamaCON and Messy should join the caravan.

  453. Tina says:

    Thanks Phil, you are right, numbers are al over the place.

    I figured 30000

    19000/20000 inside and maybe another 10000 outside.

    I forgot that is the arena in which the game warriors took game 7 of the semis.

  454. CG says:

    Actually, I still was pretty happy from the Cubs winning the World Series. But I was surprised.

  455. jason says:

    Thank you Montana deadender.

  456. mnw says:

    458 Postscript

    And it was done over the last 3 weeks.

    I know, but… it’s the only game in town right now.

  457. lisab says:

    You should legitimately vote your conscience, but if you do not vote for the Republican, merely to stop Ellison, then you are doing what I did in 2016 and will perhaps do in 2020.
    ————————————-

    you mean i would be calling myself a republican and then voting to make the republican lose?

    hmmmmmm … i don’t claim to be a republican so that doesn’t quite work does it

  458. jason says:

    456 Finally! He gets it now.”

    I didn’t know diabetics were immune to sarcasm.

    Live and learn.

  459. mnw says:

    What does “Montana deadender” mean, jason?

  460. lisab says:

    I accepted the election results right off the bat.
    ———————–

    prove it … who is your president?

    it will be healthy for you …

  461. CG says:

    Well, you call yourself a Trump supporter, so yeah, you are working against his best interests to be sure. It just wouldn’t make sense. I am skeptical that you have never heard of Keith Ellison before.

    Keith Ellison would have Trump immediately taken to The Hague if he had his way.

  462. ReadyFirst says:

    444. Understandable. I’m HAPPY he’s proving me wrong. That’s why I don’t understand a lot of the anti Trump “conservatives” here.

  463. Tina says:

    Big numbers at the #HoustonRally 19000+ inside. 25000+ outside. Love Texas! @realDonaldTrump

    — Brad Parscale (@parscale) October 23, 2018

  464. Tina says:

    ReadyFirst says:
    October 22, 2018 at 10:19 pm
    444. Understandable. I’m HAPPY he’s proving me wrong. That’s why I don’t understand a lot of the anti Trump “conservatives” here.

    Some of them are phony or fake Rs (really Drats).

    Some of them were pissed that Guac bowl did not win the nomination, only to want him to lose to Her Thighness.

  465. Bitterlaw says:

    Who here would not have accepted the result if Hillary won? We’re political junkies and not assassins. What does that even mean? In America, there is never a final result. Roughly half the country tries to change the President or the party controlling the White House every 4 years. People try to change the results in the House and Senate (1/3 of it) every 2 years.

  466. mnw says:

    Thx, MG

    I don’t know how to move such a link except to copy it manually.

    Did I report it accurately, from your reading?

  467. Tina says:

    Obama had a rally of 2000 today.

    He referred to Trump as polpot.

    Yet, Obama is the only Presidemt to use the fib and doj to,spy on another candidate.

    I bet he would stutter again in front of trump.

  468. CG says:

    Had Hillary won, there would have been lots of talk about it only being due to illegals voting or Black Panthers scaring away Republican voters in Philadelphia, etc.

  469. lisab says:

    Well, you call yourself a Trump supporter,
    ———————————————–

    is this like when jason wished he would die?

  470. jason says:

    Corey is still stuck in 2016.

    I have moved on.

    Trump has proven himself fit for office. Some of his policies on trade and foreign policy are asinine. Some of his comments are beyond stupid and his attacks on members of his own party are self defeating and consequential.

    But he has delivered on a lot of good things for conservatives. He has challenged the self entitled, dishonest, partisan MSM. He has delivered on taxes and judicial appointments. He has stopped spending trillions down the climate change rathole. He has a solid energy policy that promotes energy independence. He has championed the military and our veterans. There are other things.

    I will support him in 2020. If circumstances change, if he falters, if there is a credible challenger that can win, etc. I will take it into account.

    Trump has been a much better President than I expected.

    Sue me.

  471. lisab says:

    I am skeptical that you have never heard of Keith Ellison before.
    ————————-

    i did not say that … you seem to have trouble reading

  472. Tina says:

    It was fun reading the posts from the Jebots here about Hillary.

    They always defended Hillary.

  473. MichiganGuy says:

    #478, Yes, I would just add:
    “Two-point-six percent of respondents to the MTN-MSU poll said they planned to vote for Libertarian Rick Breckenridge, who’s on the ballot; 6.5 percent said they are undecided; and 1.6 percent named someone else they planned to support.”
    .
    “The Tester and Rosendale campaigns have spent nearly $20 million on the campaign so far, with Tester spending $16 million of that amount. Three dozen outside groups had poured another $25 million into race as of last weekend.”

  474. jason says:

    What does “Montana deadender” mean, jason?

    Libertarian (L) 3

  475. ReadyFirst says:

    Tina, wish I could find the article, but it had Bill Nelson talking about the HUGE Dem rally in Jacksonville, which Nelson compared to an Obama sized rally. The event was around 1,000 people, lol.

  476. lisab says:

    Yet, Obama is the only Presidemt to use the fib and doj to,spy on another candidate.
    ———————————

    probably not true

  477. CG says:

    jason, the guy you believed was a racist is still a racist.

    You can choose to move on from that, but I can’t. There are lots of other reasons too.

    I think you to just accept that people in this country feel differently than you. You probably know many of them a lot more than you “know” me.

  478. Hugh says:

    475. Ok I think rv poll close race in the end Rosendale wins. My 4th 1k investment will be going to Rosendale. Tester is done. Stick a fork in it.

  479. Bitterlaw says:

    I didn’t know diabetics were immune to sarcasm.

    Live and learn.

    Damn. Ma. We caught a jasonfish!

  480. Tina says:

    Rf, Obama was in Orange County a month or so ago. Tiny crowd for him. He looked ill and unhealthy, He yelled at some kids in the crowd to pay attention to him.

  481. Tina says:

    Lisab, only recent president to do so.

    Except groper 41 was caught with some fib files on Clinton, but nowhere did it involve fib, justice and the cia, plus the gubments of dumb dumb May and the Aussies.

  482. Bitterlaw says:

    Just thought I would ask…Should we be worried that Trump is holding a rally for Ted Cruz in Texas? If he has to campaign in Texas that is not a great sign for Cruz.

  483. jason says:

    Of course the deadender might not get 3% but in a close vote it could make a difference.

  484. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena:

    Bost +9 in IL-12
    Taylor +3 in VA-2
    Dem +1 in VA-5 open

  485. ReadyFirst says:

    Tina, yelling at the kids, that’s always a winner.

  486. Tina says:

    “Unlike some, I actually try to state facts,” Obama said. “I believe in facts. I believe in a fact-based reality, fact-based politics. I don’t believe in just making stuff up. I think you should actually say to people what’s true.”

    Like, if you want to keep your plan, you can keep it.

    You can keep your doctor.

  487. Bitterlaw says:

    I would not go to a Trump rally if it was in my house. To be fair, I have not been to a rally since 2000 so it not necessarily a reflection upon Trump/

  488. ReadyFirst says:

    Mine!

  489. Tina says:

    Schweikart tweeted that Drats are again running ads against Comstock in Va?

  490. Tina says:

    I went to the 1964 R Convention. I actually walked the floor.

    I do not do rallies either. I hate crowds and noise.

  491. jason says:

    “If he has to campaign in Texas that is not a great sign for Cruz.”

    Well, of course it isn’t. Trump should not be anywhere near TX propping up Cruz.

    Cruz is not a good candidate. Nobody really likes him. It’s not surprising the pinko rock star has made it close.

    You do what you have to do.

  492. Tina says:

    I think Beta is done for.

    I do not think this was to prop up Cruz entirely.

    I think so,e of it had to do with 2020

    Remember, trump only win Texas by 9.

    Lots of Jebots and Bushs voted for Hillary.

  493. ReadyFirst says:

    Didn’t you run for office Bitter? How did you miss the rallies if so?

  494. Phil says:

    Bitter, Beto is not going to win in Texas. Trump knows it, Cruz knows it, Beto knows it. This rally was scheduled back in August when the results were not as clear cut. Me? I never had a doubt.

  495. Tina says:

    @LarrySchweikart
    2h
    1) Gonna offer a hypothesis. This is NOT a prediction quite yet. 2) In the last couple of days the DNCC went back into IA1 (Blum) and VA10 (Comstock) and began placing ads again. 3) These were races they thought they had won in mid-summer. Barbara Comstock was the . . .

    Here is larrys tweet. I will be waiting for Vito to update the no numbers, if Vito,can.

  496. Waingro says:

    Boom.

    “Minnesota Poll: Doug Wardlow leads Keith Ellison in attorney general’s race | Star Tribune”

    https://twitter.com/lukehellier/status/1054554304319836160?s=21

  497. mnw says:

    MG

    Thx again.

    Hugh

    I’m in. I gave to Rosendale before, & then stopped, because 1) Hawley viable & needy, & 2) no indication Rosendale was moving the needle.

    Now, I’m starting feel Hawley is APPROACHING safe, & Rosendale MAY be closing.

    That’s one damn peculiar MT poll tonight, tho. Mail-in? RVs?

  498. mnw says:

    Tina

    Schweikart is now sounding more confident about NV too. See his latest tweet.

  499. Bitterlaw says:

    Ready – I ran for Congress in 2002. Republicans did not hold rallies in Philadelphia. We would be lucky to fill a McDonald’s.

  500. NYCmike says:

    “Ok, so you can understand then why I feel like I do about Trump and Trumpism.”

    -I understand completely…….once the Cult of JEB!2016 was soundly defeated, you didn’t know where to turn, except to become even more sanctimonious than you were before.

  501. jason says:

    Who is Larry Schweikart?

    I hope he is more reliable than Lord Asshat.

  502. Bitterlaw says:

    Trump is a racist? Kanye and all those newly employed minorities must be angry about it.

  503. Redmen4ever says:

    Montana State poll – A stale, mail poll. It tells us that about a month ago, Tesler was ahead by 3 points and was in the mid 40s.

    (MT remains Lean D.)

  504. CG says:

    Once Jeb was defeated I was prepared to enthusiastically support a couple of other candidates (and unenthusiastically another one)but that didn’t work out either.

    Why not try to talk to your pastor after the fact?

  505. NYCmike says:

    “And yes, I thought he was a liberal Democrat based on his prior statements and party registration.”

    -He kept thinking tha,t even after I presented several facts to him that he NEVER contradicted, because he could not.

  506. Phil says:

    I actually can see the GOP having a really good election night in the senate. I can see us holding Nevada and Arizona and then winning ND and Mo. I can also see us winning one of Indiana, Florida, and Montana. Actual net gain of three seats. Very possible.

    That would have been unheard of six weeks ago.

  507. Tina says:

    Thanks mnw.

  508. sane_voter says:

    Yes, the DCCC is running ads this week in VA-10 and IA-01. I know they pulled ads in IA-01 a month ago.

    Their ad buys are on their website.

  509. NYCmike says:

    “Why not try to talk to your pastor after the fact?”

    -I said a few words to the pastor several weeks after, but not the actual priest who gave the rant…….the pastor said “I heard some words, pro and con, about that homily. Hopefully we can all discuss the situation at a forum in the near future”.

    That forum has yet to happen, which is fine, as I have been busy.

  510. Tina says:

    Trump is a raycis and paid for abortions. Worse person on the planet.

    I read it here.

  511. mnw says:

    jason

    A retired history professor in AZ; author of both non-fiction & fiction books; political commentator, sometimes on FOX.

    He came to public attention in 2016, when he predicted quite early that Trump would win by a goodly margin, & he stuck with that consistently– even until election eve when NYT had HRC at 92% probability.

    He only analyzes data, NOT polls– for which he has contempt.

    @LarrySchweikart is his twitter address.

    I like people who can justifiably claim to have succeeded when everyone else failed.

  512. CG says:

    No, not the worst person on the planet. There are a lot of people on the planet.

    But in the Top 1 percent probably.

  513. Tina says:

    Trump is only using Kanye. Kanye is mentally ill.

    Jebot

  514. Tina says:

    Schweikart was very close in the number of Evs that trump received. He admits to missing Wisconsin,

  515. Tina says:

    Barris also indicates that in Nv, the dusts are not hitting their numbers,p

    Barris is polling director for ppd.

  516. Tina says:

    If Ellison goes down in Mn, he could cost them a senate seat.

  517. mnw says:

    Phil

    I been sent to spread the message! (pause:: one; two; three)
    God bless Texas!

    How ’bout them rallyers?

  518. mnw says:

    jason

    See also Tina’s 526.

  519. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida
    .
    Governor:
    .
    Desantis 48%
    Gillum 45%
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Scott 51%
    Nelson 46%
    .
    OnMessage,Inc
    https://rickscottforflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-Statewide-Survey-n2200.pdf
    ———————————————————————————————————
    This is a Republican pollster but, it looks legit. Live caller telephone interviews were
    conducted on October 14-18, 2018. This survey consists
    of 2200 likely voters. The partisan makeup is only R+1.

  520. MichiganGuy says:

    It was probably mentioned already but, I stop reading the post today after CG and everyone got into it about Trump and the Pope. LOL

  521. lisab says:

    Once Jeb was defeated I was prepared to enthusiastically support a couple of other candidates
    ———————-

    yup … hillary, bernie, biden …

  522. mnw says:

    MG

    I thought so too.

    A lot of internals are easy to spot as garbage, because they don’t show their work. THIS one looks awfully… real. At least to me. Could be wishful thinking. It is clearly a rescue poll, tho.

  523. Cash Cow TM says:

    “Tina says:
    October 22, 2018 at 10:36 pm
    Schweikart tweeted that Drats are again running ads against Comstock in Va?”
    **********************************
    Yes, the flurry of anti-Comstock ads–calling her “Trumpstock” for her 98.7% voting to support things Trump wants–are back in force.

    The RNCC has been having ads up bashing Wexton for being soft on crime when she was a P.A. and dropping several charges on an illegal alien rapist who raped a woman 4 times.

    Plus Comstock has pro-Comstock ads up too.

  524. Mr.Vito says:

    Washoe early vote was 7% D advantage today.
    (Down from 13.4% yesterday)… heavy turnout today.

    Total EV+VB

    Democratic – 10,386
    Republican – 8,897
    Nonpartisan – 3,920
    Total – 23,203

    D advantage in Washoe after Day3 2018: 6.4%
    D advantage in Washoe after Day3 2016: 9.1%

  525. Cash Cow TM says:

    “actually, hubby got a huge job in mn, his raise was more than i made in salary

    sooooooooo … off to the midwest again ?”

    ***********************************************
    Walt, Mrs. Walt and I are driving out to N. WISC. about mid Nov.

    If we were flying, we would come into MSP airport in the twin cities. But driving on the interstates takes us just west of Chi-Town and up thru the middle of WISCO to get to Lake Superior.

  526. JeffP says:

    502…1964 Convo…one of my first earliest childhood memories watching that on a b/w TV. Not kidding. For some reason my Mom had it on and it caught my attention. Later I moved on to the Flintstones in color on our new Admiral TV.

    BTW things are looking pretty dang good for the GOP.

    This caravan if handled right should help the GOP some and show Trump is right about a wall.

  527. lisab says:

    i don’t live anywhere near duluth

  528. MichiganGuy says:

    Arkansas Governor:
    Hutchinson (R) 60%
    Henderson (D) 24%
    West (L) 5%
    Undecided 11%
    .
    Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College
    https://talkbusiness.net/2018/10/poll-trump-approval-soars-in-arkansas-hutchinson-rutledge-hold-big-leads/

  529. ReadyFirst says:

    531. MG, Yeah, that made the top ten this morning at #9. But go with it, it’s getting more attention now. Plus, you didn’t have to fold Jason’s socks to get it read (38).

  530. ReadyFirst says:

    531. Notice it was well out of the MOE, not a two pointer. Plus, it was only a conservative R+1.

  531. ReadyFirst says:

    511. Bitter, good on ya for running. Running for office is hard enough to do, but In your scenario is when it takes real courage. It’s easier to run in an echo chamber of supporters.

  532. Mr.Vito says:

    Fake but accurate spokesperson for the DNC

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1054514252461948928

    Amusing…

  533. Victrc says:

    Bitter

    We’re you in the General or primary?

    Fun fact I almost ran against Charlie Rangel in Harlem district. I kept an apt near Columbia after graduating for a long time. No R ever got more than 15% against him but felt I could reach 30% as I lived in the district for a long time, knew the people and speak fluent Spanish.

    He used to build up huge war chests and then funnel the money to himself. Wanted him to have to actually use it on a campaign…but then I met my wife and that was not a good thing for a couple in their first year lol

  534. mnw says:

    540

    Remember everybody!

    He’s been such a pleasure today, be SURE TO REWARD him by clicking on his gd mfn TROLLBLOG!

    Say “thank you, corr-eeetroll! May I have another, pls?”

  535. lisab says:

    mnw,

    don’t let him get you down …

    he thinks he is the smartest one in the room, unfortunately in all likelihood for most of his life he has been alone

  536. mnw says:

    I can see why, too.

  537. Mr.Vito says:

    According to my calculation Clark county underperformed its registration advantage in early voting by basically the same as yesterday.

    That would give them a 9.8% D advantage in EV through Day 3.

    In 2016, they had a 21.6% D advantage in EV through Day 3.

  538. michael corleone says:

    Nevada is a knife fight – could go either way. Looks better than 2016, but worse than 2018. But at a minimum there is no blue wave and if other states are similar to NV, that should be good for the GOP since the Senate and battleground districts will be fought on red territory.

  539. Mr.Vito says:

    So through Day3 (with 8 red counties missing)

    For EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 3.8%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 12.2% after Day 3.

  540. ReadyFIrst says:

    Nice job Vito. Please keep the NV reports coming.

  541. Mr.Vito says:

    Let me put it this way… so far the early vote total in Clark is 78.3% of the 2016 early vote total on Day3.

    If the breakdown in 2018 were extrapolated to 2016 turnout through Day3, it would mean the Dems lose about a 12500 vote advantage through three days in Clark county.

    That doesn’t include vote by mail.

  542. Mr.Vito says:

    That is half the 2016 senate margin.

  543. lisab says:

    it would mean the Dems lose about a 12500 vote advantage through three days in Clark county.
    ——————————–

    i gather that you don’t see obvious evidence of a blue tidal wave

  544. ReadyFirst says:

    Yeah, I wish FL was more like that. I think we’re doing good and would put money on both Scott and Desantis (more on Scott), but Dems do seem to be running a couple points ahead of where they were compared to Reps in 2014. Both parties are increasing turnout and the mo seems with Reps but this is not a done deal yet. In the end, part of me wonders if Dems are not cannibalizing their election day vote.

  545. ReadyFirst says:

    I did read earlier today that the majority of NPA votes are coming in from conservative counties that voted heavily for Trump so that was very good news.

  546. michael corleone says:

    #557 – For Florida, I think you need to look at 2016. No one expects a turnout model like 2014 where turnout was low and only the GOP was amped up. FL GOP early vote is outperforming 2016, which I think is a good sign. Note also that for NV, Vito is looking at 2016 for the baseline, not 2014.

  547. John says:

    According to John Ralston…”Democrats need to win Clark County by at least 10 points (Hillary won Clark with just under 11 points).
    As of 10:30 Monday night..
    (evs/mail ins/absentee)
    Clark…90,923 votes
    D’s…..40,825 or .4490
    R’s…..33,239 or .3656
    Difference .0834
    Close but look good for Heller.

  548. Bitterlaw says:

    I ran against Chaka Fattah in the General election. No pressure because I had no chance to win. Received 12% of the vote. My best moment was Candidate’s Comedy Night. A local columnist held a dinner every year to raise money for local. charities. He told me later that I was the best candidate/comedian. Fattah was not funny and gave a mini campaign speech. Governor Ed Rendell was funny.

    Fattah was at a table sponsored by a strip club. Seriously.. I had to buy tickets for myself and my wife and our table was in the section by the kitchen in the back of the room.

  549. George says:

    More good news from Schweikart:

    Word from Montgomery Co. OH: Rs continue to hold a 2800 lead in this blue county. It will, according to “The Accountant,” dwindle to about zero on election day . . . which is a huge win.

    Rs always win election day.

    This is a bellwether county and suggests Renacci tied.

  550. MichiganGuy says:

    “One of the biggest political sex scandals of the modern era—one that perhaps helped the elder George Bush become president—may have been a set-up. So writes James Fallows in the Atlantic regarding the fate of Colorado Sen. Gary Hart in 1987. Hart had been a leading contender for the Democratic nomination that year when an infamous photo emerged of a young model named Donna Rice sitting on Hart’s lap on a pier in Bimini. The photo effectively ended Hart’s bid for the White House. Now the new twist: Legendary GOP operative Lee Atwater, who served as Bush’s campaign manager, reportedly made a deathbed confession in 1991 to Hart consultant Raymond Strother that he orchestrated the photo and resulting scandal.”
    .
    http://www.newser.com/story/266207/a-new-theory-about-a-famous-political-tailspin.html

  551. MichiganGuy says:

    Illinois #12
    .
    Bost (R-inc) 48%
    Kelly (D) 39%
    .
    SienaResearch/UpshotNYT
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-il12-3.html

  552. Messy says:

    a bunch of gubernatorial polls:

    Connecticut : Ned Lamont (D) 47% v. Bob Stefanowski (R) 39% (
    Quinnipiac, Oct 3-8, MOE ±5.0%)
    Florida: Andrew Gillum (D) 54% v. Ron DeSantis (R) 42% (CNN/SSRS Poll, Oct 16-20, MOE ±4.2%)
    Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D) 45% v. Brian Kemp 47% (WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA, Oct 3-8, MOE ±4.9%)
    Kansas: Laura Kelly (D) 36% v. Kris Koback (R) 37% (Emerson, Sept 26-28, MOE ±3.5%)
    Iowa: Fred Hubbell (D) 43% v. Kim Reynolds (R) 41% (Des Moines Register, Sept 17-20, MOE ±4.2%)
    Maine: Janet Mills (D) 44% v Shawn Moody (R) 36% (Pan Atlantic Research,Oct 1-7, MOE ± 4.4%)
    Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 46% v. Bill Schuette (R) 38% (Mitchell, Sept 30-Oct 7, MOE ± 3.8%)
    Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) 46% v. Steve Sisolak 45% (NYT/Siena, Sept 30-Oct 3, MOE ± 4.8%)
    Ohio: Richard Cordray (D) 46% v. Mike DeWine (R) 40% (Suffolk, Oct 4-8, MOE ± 4.4%)
    Oregon: Kate Brown (D) leads Knute Buehler 40% to 35% (DHM Research, Oct 4-11, MOE ± 4.4%)
    New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 50% v. Steve Pearce 43% (
    Albuquerque Journal, ± 3.1%)
    South Dakota: Billie Sutton (D) 45% v. Kristi Noem (R) 42% (Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, MOE ± 4.4%)
    Wisconsin: Tony Evers 53% (D) v. Scott Walker (R) 43% (NBC/Siena Oct 3-7, MOE ± 3.7%

  553. MichiganGuy says:

    Mississippi Senate
    .
    Smith (R) 38%
    Espy (D) 29%
    McDaniel (R) 15%
    Bartee (NP) 2%
    Undecided 15%
    .
    Smith (R) 50%
    Espy (D) 36%
    Undecided 13%
    .
    NBC News/Marist poll
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/22/mississippi-senate-election-could-go-to-a-runoff-nbcmarist-poll.html
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Looks like this race is headed to a runoff.

  554. ReadyFirst says:

    Messy, with those polls, you’re like a cat that comes and vomits up a hairball on the front porch.

  555. Redmen4ever says:

    Am I the only person who is noticing that Trump’s JA in the “high quality” live-caller polls is “surging,” by which I mean is converging on the his JA in the robo-caller polls?

  556. Redmen4ever says:

    With less than three weeks to go, it’s now time for the “high quality” live-caller polls to re-weight entertaining their sponsors versus saving their reputation. It’s called pre=post-stratification, or lifting your finger off the scale.

  557. Skippy says:

    Updated – Tuesday morning:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.96%
    Democrats 38.32%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 43.57%
    Democrats 38.89%

  558. EML says:

    Results are in for the first day of in person voting in Florida. Republicans gained 5000 in mail in ballots (up to +58K) but Democrats were +5000 in person. So a wash for the day.

  559. ReadyFirst says:

    Red, you’d think people would catch on to that scale thing after a while, sigh.

  560. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Great day for the GOP yesterday in Florida early voting.
    The GOP extended its mail-in receipts by 4,000 and only lost the first day of in-person voting by 4,500 ballots with many Red Counties still to report yesterday’s results.(The Dems. two largest Counties–Broward and Miami-Dade) were included.)

  561. Hugh says:

    The county to watch is broward. The dems need to really run up the score in broward ev to have a chance.

  562. Wes says:

    Donnelly at 41-47 in a new poll.

    Time for Brain to unleash his inner Mourdock.

  563. jaichind says:

    Montana State University-Montana Television Network poll: Tester 46-43

  564. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Hugh
    I watch Pinellas and Hillsborough and yesterday the in-person vote totals in those two Counties were dead even between the Good Guys and the Dems.
    Also, in my post #574, Palm Beach County has also reported its first day of in-person voting.

    Skippy, you have a fetish to present only percentages. Would it be an imposition to also identify raw vote totals? Thanks.

  565. jaichind says:

    Monmouth University poll
    CA 48 Rohrabacher 50-48. If Dem surge then she is behind 48-50. This is the type of seat GOP needs to hold to stop Dem House majority

  566. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Wes #576
    Great news in Indiana. Here is the link:

    http://indypolitics.org/braun-has-slight-lead-as-campaign-enters-home-stretch/

  567. Todd McCain says:

    Was just about to post the Indiana poll; yes, awesome news. Late breaking Indiana!

  568. Todd McCain says:

    GOP now leads the Florida VBM by 58K. Yes, we only lost the actual in person vote by 4500.

  569. Todd McCain says:

    We effectively fought the DEMS to a draw yesterday in NV. I will take it.

  570. EML says:

    574 – I checked the 2016 numbers for the counties that have/haven’t reported yet.

    For the counties that have reported in person votes, Hillary won 53.1-43.8

    The counties that haven’t reported yet went 60.4-36.4 for Trump.

    The in person voting is 44%D 40%R 16%I

  571. Skippy says:

    EML – #584

    Hillsborough ONLY

    Florida’s Hillsborough 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 36.67%
    Democrats 41.22%

    Florida’s Hillsborough 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 35.16%
    Democrats 41.92%

    Florida’s Hillsborough 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 39.95%
    Democrats 42.20%

    Florida’s Hillsborough 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 39.99%
    Democrats 42.40%

    As of Tuesday morning, with 2 weeks until election, there are no signs of a blue wave in the critical, tight state of Florida.

  572. EML says:

    The fact is, Donnelly has always been in trouble. He can’t break out of the low 40s in any of these polls, which we all know is a terrible place for an incumbent to be.

    Day by day as we get closer to the election, we are seeing blue Senate seats flip to red. First was ND, then MO, now IN. Who’s next? MT? FL?

  573. Todd McCain says:

    I personally would love to see Tester go down.

  574. jason says:

    Todd is a selfish bastard.

    He wants to deny the rest of us the pleasure of seeing Tester go down and keep it to himself personally.

  575. jason says:

    Getting naked in a hot tub could be fatal.”

    And getting in clothed is awkward.

    Decisions, decisions.

  576. jason says:

    Messy’s polls are older than the hills.

    But I guess she posted them because they favor Dems.

  577. Todd McCain says:

    So what is the absolute highest Dem early vote total the GOP could withstand in Clark County, NV for Heller to win?

  578. Bitterlaw says:

    Dems must love early voting. They get a good idea of how many votes they need to manufacture on Election Day.

  579. Todd McCain says:

    No doubt, but GOP has overall been doing a much better job on EV than in previous cycles. 2008, we just didn’t know how to respond.

  580. jason says:

    I don’t share Bitter’s antipathy towards early voting.

    I voted early in Texas for years, quite convenient for someone who traveled a lot.

    I already voted in PA in person. On election day I am traveling, my flt arrives in Harrisburg aroud 5 PM, it its late I would not be able to get to my polling place in time.

    The only real problem I see with early voting is that if there is some scandal about a candidate in the interim, enough votes could be cast so it makes no difference.

    I can live with that risk.

  581. jason says:

    Eventually everyone will have a password and vote online from a computer or phone.

    I doubt there will be any polling places by 2030.

  582. hugh says:

    I would like one week the week before Election Day. I travel a lot and EV is important to me. However, two weeks or three weeks early is too soon because information can change in the interim. Also, EV can lead to cheating. Paying for votes etc, much more so than Election Day voting. In Lauderdale the first time I early voted at the downtown library there were election workers on the streets literally accosting black people walking by asking if they had their licenses than harassing them until they went in a voted. I saw this first hand. I wish I recorded it with my phone.

  583. hugh says:

    597. I tend to disagree I think what they have in broward will end up everywhere. A paper ballot that is easy to fill out that is then fed into a computer, because you can audit it if there is computer failure or hacking of any kind. We cannot rely anymore on computers alone.

  584. jason says:

    Dow down 400 and Caterpillar down 5%.

    Trade wars have consequences:

    Caterpillar dropped more than 5 percent following the release of its results. The company said its manufacturing costs rose due to higher material and freight costs. Material costs were driven by higher steel prices and tariffs. This drop adds to Caterpillar’s steep monthly losses. Through Monday’s close, the stock is down 15.6 percent for the month.

    The U.S. and China have implemented tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods this year, increasing costs for companies and raising fears that tighter global trade conditions could slow down the global economy. Negotiations between the two countries have stalled recently, increasing fears that this spat will be prolonged.

    “We just look like we’re getting further away from a deal with China,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. “The ramifications of a prolonged trade ware are really seeping into investors’ minds right now.”

    “I think we’re coming to a capitulation point,” he said.

  585. jason says:

    Hugh, you really think in 2030 there will be paper ballots?

    There probably won’t be much paper by then either.

  586. DW says:

    Had to be in a waiting room this morning and CBS’s morning show was on. Major Garrett chimed in as to the political outlook with two weeks to go. He wasn’t at all cheery like Silver on 538. In fact he said flatly that nobody knows what is going to happen on election day. That Trump has changed everything–don’t look at past patterns, don’t look at early voting, etc. He did say that both sides seem to have energized the base and it seems more like a POTUS election than midterm.

  587. DW says:

    Garrett went on to say that the caravan of immigrants going through Mexico will help the GOP in many areas but hurt the GOP in California. He didn’t say why, but then boasted how of 300,000 undocumented who have come across only 13 turned out to be potentially dangerous people from the middle-east.

    Hello? 13? How many did it take to perpetrate 9/11?

  588. DW says:

    They also didn’t say who would pay to feed, clothe, and provide healthcare for the train of migrants.

    I am sorry, but I don’t agree that these migrants headed to our border are going to help the Democrats anywhere.

  589. dblaikie says:

    As my fellow posters know I try to look for stuff outside the polls because frankly I do not trust them. Well have you noticed that all this stuff about is coming out on how the blue wave is fading, while at the same time we have 538 upping the size of the blue wave beyond reason and polling groups like CNN and Quinn. producing polls that lend credence that the blue wave is getting bigger — I mean, come on, Gillum up by 12? Really!

    So it seems to me, two weeks before the election two democratic campaigns are going on. The first is these bogus pundits are seeing reality and are staring to pull back from the brink where on election night they will lose all credibility if they continue the blue wave narrative. But the second campaign is a real guard action by some pollsters who are going to produce bogus polls. Why are they going to take this bullet, you ask? Simple, without the blue wave narrative the democratic vote will become terribly demoralized, many won’t show up. Without an existential belief in the blue wave we will have a red wave. That is what the Piers Morgan story is trying to proclaim.

    Everybody is talking about how fired up the Dems. are. Well let me ask you, name anyone in the Democratic Party who can have a rally in Houston (Democratic City in Texas) and have over 100000 people want tickets. As usual the press is sitting on the real story. Trump is a master at firing up his base.

    This all makes me very comfortable with my prediction of plus 5 senate seats and minus 5 house seats for the GOP.

  590. jason says:

    We cannot rely anymore on computers alone.

    That’s where we are going.

    Everyone will have a password to vote. There will be safeguards of course, facial recognition, fingerprints, eye scan, etc.

    It will all be virtual however. And you will vote from home or work and you will probably have like a week to do it.

  591. DW says:

    Picked this up from RRH:

    New WaPo poll:

    In the 69 competitive House districts, Dems lead among likely voters by 50-47.

    63 of those districts are currently held by Republicans.
    https://t.co/WQBuAimyJH

    OK, but think about this. The Dems need to flip 26 of the 63 given they likely to see three flip to the GOP. Given the fact that PA_05, PA_06, PA_17, NJ_02, AZ_02, CA_49 and perhaps a few others will likely be blow-out flips, they may not be able to grab house control with 50/47 overall, given that the GOP has only one or maybe two blow-out flips.

    This is assuming of course that 50/47 is accurate, which I would doubt given its the Wash Compost.

  592. jason says:

    I am sorry, but I don’t agree that these migrants headed to our border are going to help the Democrats anywhere.”

    It might help them in areas where they are going to win big anyway. I can see the appeal in San Francisco, come out for the caravan!

    It won’t help them in swing districts.

  593. Bitterlaw says:

    I am not opposed to absentee ballots for those are ill, traveling, in the military, etc. I oppose opening up physical polling places for days or weeks. Too much time for shenanigans.

  594. DW says:

    RCP moved IL_12 from Tossup to Lean R

  595. dblaikie says:

    Unless it was the GOP, whoever planned this “caravan” made one huge miscalculation. They thought it would be wonderful showing the mean Trump administration separating families and being heartless on the border. After all that is what the media breathless to report.

    But instead we are going to get at the least an unruly mod of over 20000 people who will demonstrate how much we need border security. At worst we are going to have a violent mob that will burn its reality into millions of voters — many of them moderate Independents and Republicans.

  596. Wes says:

    Bitterlaw is right. Extensive early voting periods lead to banked votes for incompetent drunk drivers who would otherwise lose the election.

  597. mnw says:

    575 Wes & Sheep

    IN SEN poll:

    This poll finds a 29-point gender gap! — women supposedly favor Donnelly by 29 points more than men.

    Also, & somewhat ominously, it finds Donnelly +10 among indies.

    Furthermore, it finds a VERY small Kavanaugh effect.

    Otoh, I keep coming back to the fact that Donnelly isn’t running as Trump Lite any more. He’s now running as, ” I AM Trump. Period, the end.”

    I’m jealous that Trump carried IN by 20, & MO by just 18.

  598. mnw says:

    610 DW

    IL-12

    But… but… Bost (R-inc; USMC combat vet) once shot a dog! His challenger is “really strong”! Bost was out FR’ed! Brendan Kelly is a FABULOUS states atty, & the NYT describes him as “a top DEM recruit”!

    mnw was really wrong about all the facts. Having first-hand knowledge of a race means nothing! Go with Wiki!

    Obviously RCP made some mistake here?

  599. Redmen4ever says:

    Jobs not Mobs

    Preppie Snobs not Homeless Slobs

    Lou Dobbs not Beto Bobs

    Watch Fobs not Watch Robs

    Locked Door Knobs not Central American Blobs

    Corn on the Cobs not Snowflake Sobs

  600. Hugh says:

    To get a 29 point gender gap you would have to over Paul millennial’s and minorities.

  601. Mr.Vito says:

    Trump 44-50 in Gallup.

  602. Todd McCain says:

    That MT poll seems like a complete waste of time; the final result is plausible but still entirely by mail?

  603. mnw says:

    Todd 618

    Agree, but only to a point.

    The only real significance might be to lend Rosendale credibility with wavering donors.

  604. DW says:

    Once again RRH demonstrates how tolerant it is. In response to the Wash Post poll someone posted this:

    cer
    October 23, 2018 at 9:06 am | In reply to MosheM

    Don’t buy it

    That reply of “Don’t buy it” was too over the top and received an immediate reprimand:

    RRR
    October 23, 2018 at 9:58 am | In reply to cer
    This is another, final reminder to source your comments. No one wants to know whether or not you believe something in a vacuum. Do so or you’ll need to take a break from posting here.

  605. jason says:

    Stinky bait in water….

  606. Hugh says:

    Poll not Paul

  607. jason says:

    Worthless poll result:

    “Senator Todd Young’s approval ratings were 28 percent. 23 percent disapproved. 48 percent were undecided”

  608. mnw says:

    Who is “Senator Todd Young,” pls?

  609. Todd McCain says:

    FL #’s just updated again for 10 am; GOP now leads rounded to 59K and they actually only now lost the EV in person by 3500. Great day yesterday for FL GOP.

  610. jason says:

    Brazil conservative candidate Bolsonaro still at 95-5 at Predicit.

    Second round against the communist is Sunday.

    There was a mini scandal over the weekend when Bolsonaro’s son, elected to Congress in a record vote, said “it would only take one soldier to shut down the Supreme Court”.

  611. Hugh says:

    I watched rove On Fox this morning. His analysis of Nevada early voting is extremely positive towards Republicans. For what it is worth.

  612. jason says:

    The Brazilian Supreme Court is riddled with appointees from the left wing Lula government. Lula is in jail, and even his appointees voted to keep him there.

  613. jason says:

    I have never been to RRH, sounds like its run like Pravda.

  614. jason says:

    I am not opposed to absentee ballots for those are ill, traveling, in the military, etc.”

    Bitter is not opposed to absentee ballots?

    How generous of him.

  615. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.97%
    Democrats 38.31%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,683

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 43.60%
    Democrats 38.85%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin: Republicans +54,978

  616. jason says:

    Is Avenatti smarter than the average Dem, after all its a low bar.

    But he seems to recognize the danger of the caravan to the Dem’s prospects.

    “There is too much at stake in the midterms for the Dems to allow the Repubs to use the caravan, which is so obviously a set-up, as a wedge issue. It is time for the Dems to step up and be strong on border security. We cannot once again be painted as weak and then lose.”

  617. jason says:

    A set up by whom? Soros?

  618. jason says:

    There is potential for some discord among Dems about the caravan….

    Pass the popcorn.

  619. DW says:

    Cook is now following NY-Times/Siena in lockstep. Whatever they say, he changes the rankings. Including moving FL_27 from Tossup to Lean D on the ‘strength’ of the Siena poll even though they admitted the poll has problems, while at the same time Cook ignores the Mason-Dixon poll showing the Republican +2, and Mason-Dixon has polled FL for years. Siena has never polled FL before this year.

    But Cook sees what he wants to see.

  620. DW says:

    Cook moved nine other rankings both in response to herding, and to start some herding.

  621. EML says:

    The 10:05 Florida updated just added Lake County (Orlando suburbs). Trump won 59% there in 2016. Brings In Person voting gap down to 3705, with a lot of GOP counties still not reporting. Day One in person voting in 2016 was +24000 for the Democrats.

  622. jason says:

    Walker seems to have gained at Predictit, now its only 53-45 against him.

  623. Todd McCain says:

    637. Seems like by the time all the counties have reported we might have held them to EVEN for in person voting.

  624. jason says:

    538 has GOP senate chance at 81%, House at 14.3%.

    I say its more like 90 and 30.

  625. jason says:

    Wes needs better bait.

  626. DW says:

    How can you tell a race is over? Look at OH_12 where some days back the Dem released and internal showing Balderson (R) up ‘only’ one point. Yesterday another D-Internal released saying, hang in there, there is still a path, as now the Dem is down ‘only’ TWO points!

  627. Todd McCain says:

    Ralston has a new update out; looks fairly favorable to GOP. GOP needs to better the EV in Washoe.

  628. DW says:

    along with 642…

    Michigan Senate – R-Internal:

    Stabenow 48%
    James 41%

  629. Phil says:

    The poll that came out yesterday showed Cramer leading Heidi by 17. Last night I looked at 538 and Silver has Heidi losing by 4 points. Huh? He has Tester winning by 7 and Donnelly winning by just under that. Has Sky Queen winning by a point or two. Either Silver knows something we don’t or he’s an absolute hack. I know which way I lean. I think he has the Arizona loon up a couple of points as well.

  630. dblaikie says:

    At this point, except for the way the media obsesses over them, I could care less what the toupees or 538 forecast about the election. I don’t believe that they have learned a thing about the Trump base from 2016. I may be wrong, but I think Charlie, Nate, and Larry (has sort of a three stooges vibe — don’t you think) are going to be in for a rough election night.

  631. mnw says:

    I read a news story this morning (FOX, I think) that Heitkamp has informally suspended her campaign, because of the rape victim disclosure affair.

    Kind of puts Silver’s “Cramer +4” in perspective?

  632. jason says:

    Ignore Ralston. He does not even pretend to be objective. When Dems are up is he is giddy and bombastic. If they are down he is concerned.

    He is a partisan hack and a fraud. You cannot trust anything he says even if “fairly favorable” to the GOP.

    Same with Nate Silverhack.

    These are people who consider themselves pundit warriors of the left. Their loyalty is first to the cause, then to the numbers. And they won’t let the numbers get in the way of the cause.

  633. mnw says:

    RAS:

    48/51 (35/42)

    DW/Sheep:

    RE: RRH

    RRH uses scottrasumussen.com, instead of Rasmussen Reports, for the GCB, I discovered.* That way, RRH gets ALL the GCBs going in the SAME 8-10-point DEM direction. Why? I think RCP does the opposite.

    Anyway, Rasmussen Reports is about 9-points better for the GOP on GCB, than scottrasmussen.com.

    *maybe everyone but me already knew that.

  634. jason says:

    may be wrong, but I think Charlie, Nate, and Larry (has sort of a three stooges vibe — don’t you think) are going to be in for a rough election night.”

    No they won’t. Of course they want Dems to win, but if they think they are responsible for the narrative that the Dems WOULD win, they will be happy no matter what.

    They will think they did what they could to help the cause.

    If it doesn’t work out, onward to 2020.

    These people are professional leftist pundits. Elections and candidates come and go, they stay. It’s like a professional campaign manager. You help your client, collect your pay, and win or lose you move on to the next candidate.

  635. jason says:

    *maybe everyone but me already knew that.”

    I didn’t.

    But since I have never been to RRH and probably would not last more than 5 minutes there, I don’t care what they use.

  636. Phil says:

    Five minutes? That would be pretty good. Never been there either, but not sure I could last five seconds based on what others have said about the place.

  637. mnw says:

    I don’t get your post about Sen. Todd Young. What ‘garbage poll’ r u referring to? The new one that finds Braun ahead (the one referenced in post 580)? I don’t see anything about Young in the new one.

  638. mnw says:

    Phil

    How about that rally?

  639. mnw says:

    The trick with RRH is to pretend you’re handling a venomous snake when you post there.

  640. Phil says:

    The rally was pretty good….especially when you consider that all those people showed up so early on a weekday and how difficult it is to get to the Toyota Center. No parking there to speak of and Houston doesn’t really have much in the way of mass transit.

    BTW, the Indiana poll referenced (Braun up 47-43) didn’t move Silver’s prediction numbers to speak of) He still has Donnelly winning by 5. Hack.

  641. lisab says:

    But… but… Bost (R-inc; USMC combat vet) once shot a dog! His challenger is “really strong”! Bost was out FR’ed! Brendan Kelly is a FABULOUS states atty, & the NYT describes him as “a top DEM recruit”!
    —————————————

    mnw,

    i sympathize with you in that corey just makes stuff up, denies what he has said in the past and then says you said things that you did not ever say … for example, jason wanted trump to die or you said Bost must win by 14 points or whatever it was …

    and you are going to get stressed out if you don’t relax …

    you called Bost months ago, everyone knows

  642. EML says:

    Here’s Ralston for ya:

    Republicans are killing it in the rurals. They must be cannibalizing their election day vote.

    Democrats are overperforming in Washoe County! It’s the Washoe Wave! (Democrats can’t possibly be cannibalizing their election day vote).

  643. jason says:

    I don’t get your post about Sen. Todd Young. What ‘garbage poll’ r u referring to? The new one that finds Braun ahead (the one referenced in post 580)? I don’t see anything about Young in the new one.”

    I didn’t call it a garbage poll.

    I just remarked that one of the results of the previous poll (Donnelly 44 Braun 40) was garbage because it showed “45% undecided” on whether they approved Young or not.

  644. jason says:

    Here’s Ralston for ya:

    Republicans are killing it in the rurals. They must be cannibalizing their election day vote.

    Democrats are overperforming in Washoe County! It’s the Washoe Wave! (Democrats can’t possibly be cannibalizing their election day vote).”

    Yep, my point exactly. Partisan hack fraud.

  645. jason says:

    mnw, I just looked at what I wrote originally

    “worthless poll result”

    Have some coffee.

  646. lisab says:

    Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves.
    —————

    actually i don’t think that is proven

    iirc they proved that one of the men in that family had children with a slave, but not necessarily thomas

    thomas basically had a good for nothin brother who was living with him, and he or one of his sons could have been the father

    the descendants match the jefferson male line, and is also part cherokee

  647. DW says:

    The whole idea of one party ‘cannibalizing’ their election day vote by voting early is just as dumb as the term ‘triaging’ a candidate when what is really meant is giving a candidate up for dead.

    Every early vote, regardless of party, is a vote that cannot be re-cast a second time on election day.

    But the way the argument is often portrayed, one party has ‘cannibalized’ their election day vote, while the other party has not–as though they get to vote early, and a second time on election day.

  648. jason says:

    Corey always had a lot of trouble admitting he is wrong. He will to through huge convoluted arguments to avoid admitting being wrong.

    Last night, where he admitted he “could have been wrong” was actually a major breakthrough.

  649. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    36m36 minutes ago

    Cook shifts 8 House races toward Dems https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412700-cook-shifts-8-house-races-toward-dems#.W88_UeSljCM.twitter

    If you’re gonna lie, lie big. Not one single district I’m following with actual NUMBERS (not polls) looks like it’s “shifting.”

  650. DW says:

    662 – and as I pointed out yesterday, IF in fact it was Thomas Jefferson who fathered children with Sally Hemings, it was after the death of his first wife, in what would be considered today as a common-law marriage, as he was apparently faithful to her, but unable to officially marry her due to the societal customs.

    So its not like he was a dirty old man sneaking around the slave quarters every Saturday night seeking whom he could impregnate.

  651. jason says:

    Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves.”

    Both Thomas and Jefferson?

    Who knew?

  652. jason says:

    Hey Phil, so you think you would be kicked off RRH sooner than I would?

    GFY.

  653. lisab says:

    i tend to think some of the dem voters are actually voting gop

    i just don’t think many gop voters who voted FOR trump in 2016, are voting dem this time

    but i do think there will be a small, but significant number of dems who vote for the gop because of what trump has done

    of course this is based only on anecdotal evidence of people telling me they think trump has done better than they thought and the dems are acting like babies

    but i have not heard anyone who voted for trump say that now would have voted for hillary

  654. lisab says:

    btw, with booker and warren crippled

    hillary is looking like she might run

    she could probably still beat bernie,

    and biden has not been gathering crowds

    i think michelle should run. she would gain a LOT of traction.

  655. DW says:

    I am not going to trust the CA house seats in play as the savior of GOP control. They are notorious for showing on election night 51/49 lead for the GOP, with 97% reported…and then as remaining votes are counted, and absentees added, etc., two weeks later the Dem is the winner 50.1 to 49.5 or something close to that.

  656. jason says:

    Evidently CNN had their banner this morning for over 20 minutes:

    TRUMP SPREADS LIES AND STOKES FEARS AHEAD OF MIDTERMS

    Amoral Scumbag to defend CNN in 3, 2, 1….

  657. jason says:

    Hello jaichind…

    Welcome to HHR

  658. Waingro says:

    “i tend to think some of the dem voters are actually voting gop

    i just don’t think many gop voters who voted FOR trump in 2016, are voting dem this time”

    No to mention the many Never Trump conservatives who will vote GOP down the line as well.

  659. lisab says:

    “Thomas Jefferson (proven) both fathered children with their slaves.”

    the other person bitterlaw mentioned was george washington

    current historians, not necessarily credible historians, want to discredit people like washington and jefferson and others so they can take their statues down

    and have the obama monument and the michelle memorial

  660. jason says:

    Chris Cuomo says the caravan will have to be let in “to avoid violence and preserve the image of America”.

  661. lisab says:

    i understand going after columbus, because he was a pretty bad guy

    but washington, jefferson, adams 1 & 2, franklin, otis, lincoln, madison etc., were flawed men, but pretty extraordinary as well

  662. jason says:

    “No to mention the many Never Trump conservatives who will vote GOP down the line as well.”

    You rannnnnggggggg?

  663. DW says:

    Updated dashboard. Several of the seats below the magic line stand a good chance of not flipping:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NC_08 R | 147 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 148 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NY_23 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OK_05 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    CA_22 R | 152 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 154 | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 155 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 157 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    TX_31 R | 158 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    OH_10 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    AK_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4
    MO_02 R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    FL_06* R | 170 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.5
    FL_18 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.5
    AR_02 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    NY_27 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    FL_15* R | 191 | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.1
    PA_10 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_14 R | 195 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    IL_12 R | 197 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.4
    UT_04 R | 198 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    MN_08* D | 200 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    FL_26 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.5
    NM_02* R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln R | 0.4
    MN_01* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    TX_07 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_32 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_10 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    PA_01 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.1
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    CO_06 R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 171 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  664. lisab says:

    Chris Cuomo says the caravan will have to be let in “to avoid violence and preserve the image of America”.
    ———————————-

    there goes my tax cut …

    sooooooooooo … if we let these 7000 in (or whatever the number is today)

    that won’t spur more people to come?

  665. jason says:

    i understand going after columbus, because he was a pretty bad guy”

    Even that is wrong if you consider the context of the times.

    Columbus was a great man, maligning him now on different standards is pretty stupid.

  666. jason says:

    sooooooooooo … if we let these 7000 in (or whatever the number is today)

    that won’t spur more people to come?”

    So you don’t care about the image of the country?

  667. lisab says:

    when i lived in ny

    the lady who managed the place i lived

    had two children
    free housing
    WIC
    food stamps
    free health care
    and free education

    because she was an unwed single mother

    who actually lived in her free apartment with the father of her children, but he was not married to her, so she got welfare

    and

    he was a town cop, so he made a good salary

  668. lisab says:

    Columbus was a great man, maligning him now on different standards is pretty stupid.
    ———————–

    he was actually considered pretty bad for the times.

    “great” may still be accurate, if you consider julius ceasar great. he was not a great guy in the sense of, “gee i think i’ll invite julius to my party”

    but if you wanted to kill and enslave a bunch of gauls, there were none better

  669. jason says:

    Sandra Day O’Connor has Alzheimer’s…..that’s too bad. She is 88 and has certainly led a full life, from AZ cowgirl to Stanford (3rd in her class) to judge, AZ senate leader, first woman on SCOTUS.

  670. DW says:

    When you look at the most competitive House races, here are the ones above the magic line where the Republican has never lead in any non-campaign released poll:

    VA_05 -1 in yesterday’s Siena poll
    FL_15 tied in SUSA and Siena polls
    NC_02 -1 in SUSA poll
    NY_22 -2 in Siena poll
    CA_10 -5 in LA Times, but R is leading in progress Siena poll

    And now the seats that are below the magic line where there is at least one non-campaign internal poll showing the Republican ahead at some point in recent past:

    NY_19 +5 and +1 in Siena polls
    ME_02 +6 and tied in Siena polls
    KY_06 +5 in Siena poll
    CA_25 +2 in Siena poll
    NC_09 +5 in Siena poll
    WA_08 +10 in Elway poll
    NJ_03 +1 in Monmouth and +2 in Stockton U
    IL_06 +1 in Siena poll
    FL_27 +2 in Mason-Dixon poll

    Yep, sure looks like a blue-wave all right–Dems, grab your surfboards!

  671. dblaikie says:

    Frankly I tire of folks who judge people of the past by our cultural standards. Yes, Columbus had issues with the native peoples of the Caribbean. But those were issues shared by his cultural milieu.

    We should be careful. In the future people may look back on our culture, on our moral milieu and promptly get sick!

    So speaking collectively, not pointing a finger at any individual, maybe we should remember that old verse from the old Book, “First take out the log in your own eye, before you point at the splinter in another’s.”

  672. mnw says:

    DW

    You do really valuable work.

  673. jason says:

    Sorry, I think Columbus was a great man, period. Not perfect, granted.

    But there is a lot of propaganda against Columbus out there that is outright false.

    “In the rush to judge and deface, few remember that it was Spain that forbade slavery of most Native Americans and made them Spanish citizens. Fewer still remember that Columbus seems to have faced arrest by his fellow explorers for punishing — even executing — those who had abused Native Americans. And almost no one recalls that it was not Columbus but the exaggerating zealot Bartolome De Las Casas), who is most often cited in smearing Spanish exploration and with it Columbus, who was the one who proposed African slavery for the New World.

    In a world that had no knowledge of microbes or carcinogens, Columbus cannot be blamed for the diseases that his men brought to these shores any more than the Native Americans can be blamed for introducing tobacco to the Europeans.

    While Columbus is blamed for much that went wrong in the New World after his arrival, Dr. Carol Delaney, a professor emerita at Stanford University and a visiting scholar at Brown University, describes his relations with the Natives Americans as generally “benign,” and his intentions as generally good.

    This is not to suggest that Columbus was a perfect man, or that he — or any 15th century European or indigenous person — would fit comfortably in our modern world. But he is certainly not the sinister villain that he’s been made out to be, and was himself a target of white supremacists. Our modern iconoclasts would do well to think before they smash, and to realize that when the black hoods follow the dictates of the white hoods, it is the Klan that wins and history that loses.”

    https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/civil-rights/347955-in-attacking-columbus-antifa-protesters-try-to-finish-what

  674. DW says:

    Silver is an absolute moron.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/#lite

    If no new data comes in, but the page refreshes with a fresh date, one might expect the numbers to stay the same, but no, the ‘lite’ option moves from 77.7 to 77.8. Its a situation where Silver keeps the numbers in constant movement to the left, and the only thing that slows it is good GOP news. But once there is no data again, it starts the drift left again. Because it should. Keep waving the pom-poms Nate.

  675. jason says:

    There were some ruthless and Spanish conquistadors, no doubt.

    Francisco Pizzaro comes to mind.

    But even he cannot be judged by today’s standards.

    In court today, he would say, look, my mission and my orders were to bring gold back to Spain. I did that.

  676. Todd McCain says:

    1pm updated just came in from Florida:

    GOP +55K in VBM
    DEM +4K in person

  677. jaichind says:

    @674 jason

    Hi. Thanks. I am not new here. I tend to post here 2-3 weeks before a national election and then disappear after that.

  678. DW says:

    TX_21 – R-Internal

    Kopser (D) 38%
    Roy (R) 50%

    Silver says its ‘Lean R’

  679. DW says:

    FL Gov- Quinnipiac

    Gillum 52%
    DeSantis 46%

    Same margin they gave the senate race.

  680. DW says:

    Odd that Quinnipiac gives the same margin to Scott and DeSantis. Probably good news. Take their thumb off the scale and probably both of them have small leads in FL.

  681. lisab says:

    columbus was not well regarded in his own time

  682. Waingro says:

    #691, an “average” gain of 36 seats seems way too high at this point. He really lost it during the Kavanaugh hearings. The mask came off.

    There are other clearly liberal “non partisan” prognosticators who still do a good job masking their ideology and providing good analysis like Harry Enten, Nate Cohn and David Byler as well as guys from the right like Sean Trende.

    No point in giving SilverHack and 538 the time of day when there are other better options.

  683. lisab says:

    Francisco Pizzaro comes to mind.

    But even he cannot be judged by today’s standards.

    In court today, he would say, look, my mission and my orders were to bring gold back to Spain. I did that.
    ———————

    actually pizzaro was also not liked either …

    he killed the incan king, which the spanish monarchs too exception to, royal blood and all that … they liked the gold and silver though

    cortez was careful to keep some of the aztec nobility around … some have land in Spain to this day

  684. mnw says:

    IL-06 Roskam (R-inc):

    I believe the only IL seat in play. I think, with most, that GOP Reps Rodney Davis & Mike Bost are now out of danger.

    This one is a puzzle. It’s suburban Chicago. (Maybe that’s the entire problem, & I should quit right here.) The PVI is R+@, but Trump lost it by 7 points. Roskam has been in Congress for 12 years.

    Roskam is a generic Republican, except that he has opposed Trump on trade/tariffs.

    The DEM challenger compared Trump to bin Laden, & said that there are Nazis in the WH. He apologized only for invoking bin Laden’s name, nothing else.

    Since Trump’s IL rally this coming Saturday is a 4-hour drive south of Roskam’s district, I conclude that Roskam & the RNC believe Trump can’t help Roskam, at least not via a rally up in the Chi suburbs.

    It’s pretty appalling to me that the DEM has vastly out FR’ed a 6-term incumbent. The final “debate” (joint interview, really) was last night.

    That is all I got.

  685. Waingro says:

    I wonder why this other “non-partisan” is “nervous”? Hmm?

    Stuart Rothenberg
    ? @StuPolitics

    I’ll admit it: I am a little nervous about almost all state and district surveys I hear about.

  686. mnw says:

    701 sb “R+2”

  687. DW says:

    Siena’s 2nd poll of IL_06, so far…

    R46/D45. 244 responses so far.

  688. CG says:

    Randy Hultgren’s district in the Chicago suburbs/exurbs is also very much at risk.

    The concept that Trump might somehow be of help to Roskam is really one of the wilder things I have ever heard.

    Roskam is comparing his Democrat opponent to Trump, pointing out their similar rhetorical styles.

  689. DW says:

    702 – That sounds like the same message this morning from CBS’s Major Garrett.

  690. DW says:

    dashboard update based on actual polling:

    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | R+11 (R-Internal) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 43/42 (PPP-D) | 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 43/45 (D-Int) | 48/41 (Siena) | 7
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 7
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 48/39 (Siena) | 7
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 49/34 (Siena) | R+8 (R-Int) | 7
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 45/42 (PPP-D) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 6
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) | 45/41 (PPP-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 5
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 48/46 (D-Int) | 5
    WV_03* – R – 41/46 (Monm.) |48/37 (Siena) | 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 48/43 (Monmouth) | 46/41 (Siena) | 5
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 44/41 (SUSA) | 5
    VA_02 – R – 48/42 (PPP-D) | 43/51 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 50/43 (CNU) | 45/42 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 40/36 (D-Int) | 50/46 (ASR) | 46/43 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 49/47 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 49/45 (JMC) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    UT_04 – R – 48/38 (Lighthouse) | 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 46/46 (U of UT) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_39* – R – 45/43 (DCCC-D) | 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 46/43 (Siena) | 3
    FL_15* – R – 47/48 (Dem. Corp-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 45/45 (SUSA) | 43/43 (Siena) | 47/41 (R-Int) | 3
    NM_02* – R – 49/35 (Carroll) | 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) | 45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 45/39 (Target Ins) | 43/47 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 48/45 (Target Ins.) | 3
    FL_26 – R – 48/41 (DCCC-D) | 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 46/45 (Mason-Dixon) | 2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | 50/48 (Monmouth) | 1
    PA_01 – R – 50/46 (Monmouth) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 42/48 (Siena) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) | 45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 44/43 (Siena) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 41/41 (Siena) | 37/37 (SMS Group) | 42/48 (D-Int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_03 – R – 41/40 (Monmouth) | 45/47 (D-Int) | 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 47/45 (Stockton U) | 0
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 45/44 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | 0
    FL_27* – R – 51/42 (R-Int) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 39/44 (D-Int) | tie (R-Int) | 37/44 (Siena) | 0
    VA_05 – R – 45/46 (Siena) | -1
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) | 45/44 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | -1
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 34/36 (Emerson) | -1
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | 46/46 (R-Int) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | 50/46 (R-Int) | -2
    NV_03* – D – 39/41 (Emerson) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | 35/36 (R-Int) | 39/48 (D-Int) | 48/48 (Target Ins.) | -4
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | 43/45 (R-Int) | R+4 (R-Int) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | 39/48 (Siena) | -5
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 48/47 (R-Int) | 41/48 (Siena) | -6
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | 38/49 (Siena) | -6
    CO_06 – R – 45/45 (IMGE) | 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 45/46 (R-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | 38/47 (Siena) | -6
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 31/50 (DeSales U) | 34/45 (DeSales U) | 41/48 (Muhlenberg Col.) | -7
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | 35/40 (Emerson) | 36/44 (St. Anselm) | 37/46 (UNH) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    PA_08 – D – 40/52 (Siena) | -12
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | -14
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | 25/44 (Emerson) | 22/49 (St. Anselm) | 38/53 (UNH) | -15

  691. mnw says:

    702 Wain

    But Rothenberg is not changing his prediction, i.e., that the House flips by 30-40.

  692. Bitterlaw says:

    676 I did not mention Washington. That was DW.

    If we should not judge people, what is the point of studying history? When is the cut off? Can we judge Stalin and Hitler as evil or were they men of their time? How about Pol Pot? Murderous communist dirtbag was common in his time.

  693. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is going to poll FL Sen and Gov.

    Also PA-10 and NY-11….

  694. DW says:

    710 – OK, a pattern has developed. Siena keeps going up the dashboard polling GOP seats in the Lean R and Likely R range, looking for good Democrat news, and they keep re-polling seats that the first time yielded ‘unexpected’ good new for the GOP, so they poll again to make sure they get it right. They are not the least bit interested to poll NV_03, NV_04 or AZ_01, nor are they interested in re-polling MN_02 or MN_03 because they got them ‘right’ the first time.

  695. NYCmike says:

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/san-jose-sharks-fan-snags-190219608.html

    -One more……or should I say 2 more reasons, as if you needed any, to really LOVE the game of hockey!

  696. mnw says:

    CA-48 Rohrbacher (R-inc)

    The Monmouth poll commentary (Rohr +2) states that immigration issues are helping Rohrbacher.

    I’m hopeful that the caravan will scare people to the polls, as it should. Flight 93 election 20.

    Senator Cardin & Geraldo suggest “welcoming” the caravaners, btw.

  697. mnw says:

    713 sb “election 2.0”

  698. Robbie says:

    It looks like NYCmike and the rest of the deadenders may have a new heartthrob: former Cruz staffer Chip Roy.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/23/chip-roy-house-freedom-caucus-221737

  699. lisab says:

    If we should not judge people, what is the point of studying history? When is the cut off?
    ——————————————

    i think most top historians would be more concerned about what someone actually accomplished in historical terms, rather than how moral they were in today’s terms

    robert e lee kicked union butt with very little resources, and ulysses s grant was a butcher, but he won the war for the north.

    their failings as people does not change what they accomplished

  700. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    Once he is elected, he will then be part of the “evil Establishment” (combo of rules set forth by Wes and Bitterlaw), so us “deadenders” will ignore him……..while you actively hope he is just another Republican who loses his race.

  701. mnw says:

    Will we feed the trolls all day again?

  702. NYCmike says:

    Chip Roy is a long-lost relative of this guy – not the guy with the wig….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27M5KWI_q50

  703. CG says:

    Does he know Siegfried?

  704. NYCmike says:

    “Will we feed the trolls all day again?”

    -I’ll send them drinks instead….Rob Roy, comin’ up!

  705. NYCmike says:

    “Does he know Siegfried?”

    -No, but the Trump kids shoot exotic animals, which makes their father the WORST person to ever be President.

  706. Mr.Vito says:

    David Catanese
    ?Verified account @davecatanese

    2 weeks from E-Day, the GOP is more optimistic than it has been in MONTHS about the cycle.

    They increasingly believe they will HOLD the Senate, adding at least 2 seats.

    And are growing more confident they can LIMIT losses in the House to ~20 seats & cling to control.

    #14Days

  707. CG says:

    I think that’s on the kids. They are adults.

    It’s not really something I think about but others feel strongly about it. What are your views?

  708. NYCmike says:

    “What are your views?”

    -Rob Roy’s are not my style.

    I prefer a nice lager, or red wine.

  709. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m not sure I have a problem with controlled hunts in, say, Africa.

    I would think making big bucks off of safaris and hunts gives the people a huge incentive to cultivate and protect the animals.

  710. CG says:

    Your views on shooting the big game animals….

    I think its complicated. I could never be a hunter but I believe people have the right to hunt.

    As long as an animal is in the “wild” and is not someone’s pet (such as the dog that Mike Bost once shot and killed) or property, I don’t know how it is morally any different to shoot a deer than to shoot a lion. I know to many it is a discussion about what gets eaten or not.

    If you mess up with the lion, you may regret it though.

  711. NYCmike says:

    “Your views on shooting the big game animals….”

    -I would want the lager after the hunt…most likely.

  712. jaichind says:

    I did a comparison of various House projections on a district by district basis. What I found was a most pro-GOP reading of the data has the Dems gaining 13 seats. The most pro-Dem reading of the data has the Dems gaining 42 seats. A medium reading has the Dems gaining 30 seats.

    I suspect over the next couple of weeks these projections will move in a pro-GOP direction.

  713. CG says:

    729. I don’t picture you as the hunting type either.

  714. jaichind says:

    Sacred Heart U. poll on CONN gov has Lamont ahead only by 4 (40-36)

  715. EML says:

    Arizona early vote update
    More than 500,000 people have voted (2.6 million in 2016).

    Rep 44.8%
    Dem 32.4%
    Ind 22.3%

  716. Skippy says:

    Updated Tuesday afternoon:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.71%
    Democrats 38.56%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +54,679

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 43.36%
    Democrats 39.08%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +50,626

  717. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #733- EML

    As for actual ballots in the 500,000 absentees returned in Arizona:
    Democrats- 164,738
    Republicans- 227,653

    DIFFERENCE- 62,915 GOP

  718. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #735
    The reason why the most recent update in Florida favors the Democrats is because Palm Beach County finally reported its mail-in absentee receipts for the past three(3) days.It had last reported these results on !0/19.

  719. dblaikie says:

    Just so there is no doubt about drives the early vote in Clark County and I suspect Washoe County in Nevada. Here is a part of an article in the Culinary Works Local Newsletter in Las Vegas:

    “The Culinary Union’s comprehensive political organizing program is the largest political effort in Nevada and is comprised of workers who have taken a union contracted leave-of-absence from their hospitality jobs to talk to their coworkers everyday by phone, in employee dining rooms on the Las Vegas Strip and in Downtown Las Vegas, and on the doors in neighborhoods in Reno and Las Vegas – a field program unmatched by any other in the country.

    The field team, currently comprised of 250 guest room attendants, bartenders, cocktail and food servers, porters, bellmen, cooks, and kitchen workers, spend up to 10-12 hours a day, 6 days a week (Monday-Saturday) canvassing, and will ramp up to 300 canvassers for days prior to Election Day (11/4-11/6). The field team launches their canvass everyday between 9am-9:30am with last knock at 7:30pm. The Culinary Union’s political field team in seven weeks has knocked on over 190,000 doors and had one-on-one conversations with approximately 40,000 voters across Nevada statewide.

    The Culinary Union has also worked with the Las Vegas Strip casino resorts to ensure that thousands of workers will be able to vote early everyday of Early Vote during their lunch break at the nearby early Strip vote center with an organized bus program.”

  720. ReadyFirst says:

    “Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data, said initial ballot returns could spell trouble for Democrats hoping for a wave that goes their direction. His company’s absentee vote tracker shows the turnout thus far is typical of the turnout of the past, with older, whiter, and more Republican voters submitting their ballots.”
    https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article220437025.html#storylink=cpy

  721. phoenixrisen says:

    Judging by these early voting numbers, this looking like the GOP will have a resounding victory 2 weeks from now.

    One notable x-factor: Watch out for crossover Democrats whom are voting GOP this year because the Democratic party has pushed too far left. Also, African Americans voting GOP as well. How much this will hurt the Democratic vote in the mid-terms is uncertain. But even a 2-4 point swing in crossover Democrats voting GOP would be enormous.

  722. NYCmike says:

    “729. I don’t picture you as the hunting type either.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrcq6A-7NA

  723. EML says:

    “AZ Data Guru” mentioned that Republicans are doing extremely well in the southern suburbs of Phoenix (Chandler, Gilbert). Lo and behold, on his website you can filter by congressional district. Here are the ballot return percentages of the competitive districts:

    AZ-01: 35.6D 41.7R 22.7I
    AZ-02: 39.5D 37.6R 22.9I
    AZ-06: 26.9D 50.0R 23.1I
    AZ-09: 38.1D 39.5R 22.4I

    Republicans currently ahead in Enema’s old D+4 AZ-09.

  724. DW says:

    BOOM

    I normally do not BOOM an internal release, but the margin is such that I must.

    FL_27 (McLaughlin & Associates-R intneral)

    Shalala (D) 41%
    Salazar (R) 50%

    Lets see what Shalala answers with.

  725. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    OK, kiddies–here are the Texas early vote totals for one day of in-person and a week’s worth of mail-in ballots.
    Returns have been very high, but on a percentage basis, Red Counties are doing as well as the big Blue ones.

    Phil, what say you?

    https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct22.shtml

  726. DW says:

    And predictably, Silver does not budge one inch on the R-Internal poll of FL_27, just as he was not impressed by Mason-Dixon’s poll. Siena is god to him, except in races where they don’t show what he wants.

  727. mnw says:

    EML

    AZ-01 has long been my sleeper D-to-R surprise flip. I like Rogers’ chances a lot.

  728. DW says:

    Do not trust the forthcoming Siena poll of FL Senate and FL Gov. To the best of my knowledge they have never polled FL before this year.

    They had trouble in south Florida getting Latinos in their house polls.

    I expect they will show DeSantis trailing by ten early in their poll, closing to 5 by the end of the poll.

    Scott they will show -5 early, closing to -1 by the end.

    But whatever they show, even GOP leads, I will not trust them.

  729. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #744
    Add: here is Larry Schweikhart’s take on the first day on in-person voting in Texas:

    Cankles TX counties, 2016 vs. 2018:

    Harris, 3.02% vs 2.70%
    Dallas, 4.57% vs 4.45%
    El Paso, 3.53% vs 3.78%
    Travis, 4.84% vs 4.48%
    Bexar, 3.39% vs 3.10%
    Hidalgo, 5.47% vs 4.07%

  730. Florida Guy says:

    Florida Democrats scrappy, fighting back hard, but free “Hamilton” tickets from the FBI agents investigating his city could spell doom for Gillum. Just broke today!

    An October surprise, indeed.

    -FG

  731. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Nevada just updated its vote totals for ALL Counties through yesterday. It’s looking good for the Good Guys.

    Democrats- 55,575
    Republicans- 51,771

    Difference- 3804 shortfall for the GOP

    Take a look at the returns from Elko–Wowsa!

    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

  732. RB says:

    Siena seems to be having way too much of an impact this cycle. Fox hasnt had any battlegrounds in 2 weeks. Today NBC/Marist polls Mississippi(hoping McDaniel was doing well to put Miss in play)

    Suffolk has been silent-CNN sporadic and aweful.

  733. Mr.Vito says:

    So through Day3 (all counties reporting)

    Nevada EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 2.9%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 12.2% after Day 3.

  734. phoenixrisen says:

    Ralston has got to be freaking out LOL!!

  735. DW says:

    Silver is behaving like he doesn’t think anyone will check his work.

    WI_01 Dem internal comes out, and so immediately Silver moves it to just Tilt R. A much larger lead comes out in the R-Internal of FL_27, and he doesn’t make any changes.

  736. DW says:

    oh here is a show of strength. Dems release internal on TX senate showing Cruz at 50% and their clown down ‘only’ 4.

  737. Redmen4ever says:

    Beto releases internal showing he’s within the margin of dead voters.

    If only Texas were Chicago!

  738. Phil says:

    Sheeple.

    Sheeple, Do not worry about Texas. The big cities are turning out for Beto early…….but the rest of the state turned out very well also.

    Just to give you an idea of how the numbers in Texas work – look at the 2016 voting numbers in Texas. Democrats did better than they have ever have done in the big counties – Dallas, Harris, Travis, Bexar, El Paso, plus Hidalgo. All combined they gave Hillary a 700,000 margin over Trump. Trump still won the state by 800,000 votes. Why is that? There are 254 counties in Texas. Some are tiny, but there are large numbers of medium sized counties and they all went Trump by 70 percent plus. The smaller counties by 80 to 90 percent in many cases. Just over 62 percent of the popular vote resides outside the above big city counties. Only a tiny number of those outside metropolitan counties vote Democratic (small number of very small South Texas counties). The only way Beto would have had any chance would have been to drastically cut the Republican margins in suburban and rural Texas. You don’t do that running as a blatantly California style liberal.

    Voted in Walker County yesterday. The folks were out in force and they didn’t come out for Beto.

  739. Redmen4ever says:

    Go easy on Silver. He’s dealing with PTSD.

  740. Victrc says:

    I have it from a highly reliable source inside the DCCC that says they are “projecting” a 221-214 congress in their favor.

    That’s been tempered from their previous thoughts. Lots of blame on Feinstein and Schumer for screwing its up for them.

    This is not from someone off the reservation but a highly placed centrist dem.

  741. Phil says:

    221- 214 is in line with my prediction. Far short of the 40 seat gain Silver is showing.

  742. DW says:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    OH_15 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    PA_14* D | 146 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NC_08 R | 147 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 148 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 149 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    NY_23 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OK_05 R | 151 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    CA_22 R | 152 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_08 R | 154 | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 155 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 156 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 157 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    TX_31 R | 158 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    OH_10 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    AK_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4
    MO_02 R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    FL_06* R | 170 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.5
    FL_18 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.5
    OH_14 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    MI_06 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    CA_21 R | 174 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    NY_24 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 176 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    WA_03 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 178 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 179 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    CA_50 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    FL_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    VA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.5
    AR_02 R | 184 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    NY_27 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    FL_15* R | 191 | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.1
    PA_10 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_14 R | 195 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    NC_02 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    IL_12 R | 197 | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.4
    UT_04 R | 198 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    MN_08* D | 200 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    FL_26 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    VA_02 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.5
    NM_02* R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln R | 0.4
    MN_01* D | 206 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    TX_07 R | 207 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    TX_32 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_10 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    —Democrats need all the below to get Victrc’s highly reliable source projection—
    CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    PA_01 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 R | 218 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 213 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    NJ_03 R | 211 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.1
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -1.8
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    CO_06 R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 178 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    KY_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7
    NY_25 D | 171 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.7

    *indicates open seat

  743. DW says:

    Roskam (IL_06) now with a one point lead in ongoing Siena Poll. NJ_03 tied as well. Both seats I have in my not-yet-determined bucket:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 6 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  744. Mr.Vito says:

    DW, with the much better numbers from Clark, shouldn’t NV-04 be on your list? Tarkanian only lost by less than 4000 votes last time.

  745. DW says:

    764 – Yes, only a few days ago I dropped NV_04 after that first day of early voting data. Now I should put it back on the list of possibles.

  746. DW says:

    Tark is NV_03, Hardy is NV_04

  747. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-23-2018:
    Rep-463,426 Dem-408,717 Other-5,638 NPA-182,265 Total-1,060,046 as of 10/23/2018 4:04PM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-14.1% Dem-12.4%
    *of note, Reps gained another roughly 4000 requests and have a net difference of 60191 in total absentee ballots. The Reps showed gains of another 1/10th of a percent, net, in votes returned today.

    Early voting numbers are here and look promising:
    Voted Early REP 49,046 DEM 53,099 10/23/2018 4:04PM

    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  748. Victrc says:

    DW I have the same result as you have 219-216R and that’s after analyzing all the available data and current polls

  749. Mr.Vito says:

    “Tark is NV_03, Hardy is NV_04”

    Right, okay.

    Hardy lost by 10000… still not bad.

  750. DW says:

    768 – thanks for the confirmation that my search through the numbers was on target. Glad to also be affirming your numbers.

  751. Mr.Vito says:

    Starting to look like Siena’s first poll on MacArthur was trash… we’ll see.

  752. CG says:

    I’ve only gone thru Idaho thus far, but these are the ones I am saying would switch parties. I want to see where the disagreements so far are.

    1. AZ-2 (open McSally)
    2. CA-10 Denham
    3. CA-25 Knight
    4. CA-45 Walters
    5. CA-48 Rohrahacher
    6. CA-49 (open Issa)
    7. CO-6 Coffman

  753. DW says:


    Florida Atlantic U

    Nelson 41%
    Scott 42%

    Gillum 41%
    DeSantis 37%

    17%, and 22% other/undecided? Someone needs to tell FAU people are already voting!

  754. CG says:

    DW, you don’t have IL 14 as a question at all?

  755. DW says:

    No…I have made the call on IL_14 that its a hold.

  756. CG says:

    Everyone here in Chicagoland would say that one is a Tossup, basically on the same level as the Roskam race. Tons of ads running in the Chicago market.

  757. DW says:

    Two public polls (PPP-D, Siena) released with a lead of four points for the R.

    The floor has been open for the D to release an internal showing a tie or small lead, but its been crickets.

    Check the box for the R.

  758. Tgca says:

    I HATE CG! Damn thief.

  759. DW says:

    I haven’t decided on Roskam in IL_06. That is still on my list of undecided.

  760. DW says:

    Even Sabato, Gonzales, CNN, Kos, Silver, and Politico say IL_14 is Lean R.

    Where is the D-Internal showing its close?

  761. CG says:

    At this moment, I am disinclined to predict any GOP net losses in the IL House races, but I wouldn’t put too much comfort in polls. Roskam and Hultgren are going to have to sweat this out. Outside of the Chicago market, Bost and Davis are in a bit better shape. It’s going to be a rough turnout for Republicans, probably worse than any other state.

    Dissatisfaction over the Gubernatorial race at the top of the ticket is a big reason why. The third party Trumpist Gubernatorial candidate (who is a GOP State Senator, who was placed on the ballot for Governor by Democrat) is now openly campaigning against his Pro-Life State Senate colleagues, who have refused to disavow Rauner.

  762. DW says:

    Well, I am disinclined to say that I am a conservative not unhappy with Speaker Pelosi getting the gavel back. You are free to make your predictions. But if Silver says IL-14 is Lean R, it sure ain’t Lean D.

  763. CG says:

    I’d say Tossup (R)

    I am going to say the same for Roskam and I hope it’s not solely my traditional pro-Republican bias speaking.

    The factor of Republicans staying home in Illinois, especially in the Chicago area, is not something that should be overlooked. You can see from the Gubernatorial primary, that there was a bigger rift in the party than any other state.

  764. Florida Guy says:

    FAU has SCoTT +1.

  765. DW says:

    Roskam (IL_06) now up two in ongoing Siena.

  766. DW says:

    Correction. Roskam now up 3

  767. DW says:

    The Dem in IL_13 had no problem putting out a Dem internal showing R+1.

    Why doesn’t the Dem in IL_14 put out an internal showing a tie or slight lead?

  768. CG says:

    Sometimes campaigns want to keep races under the radar, as to not awaken the other side.

    I’ve seen it happen a lot in surprise races. The last public poll of IL 14 had it at a 4 point spread. I just know that Underwood and her allies are outspending Hultgren on the air.

    I am sure his campaign staff are operating as though they are either behind or in a tossup race. If not, they don’t belong in the business.

  769. CG says:

    Zero negative ads on the air against Underwood by the way, in stark contrast to heavy rotation of anti-Casten ads for the Roskam race.

  770. CG says:

    Had Democrats nominated a female candidate, Roskam would already be a goner, but in their primary, Casten was the somewhat surprise winner over about three female candidates who split the vote.

    Republicans got a big break there and Casten is someone with a lot of baggage.

    To repeat, Roskam is appealing to anti-Trump voters by linking Casten, his mouth, and “shady business dealings” to Trump.

  771. DW says:

    The greater likelihood is the Drat cannot show an internal with any sort of lead or knows that an internal D+1 would be returned by a GOP internal R + much more. There would be no reason to allow the impression that you were down 4 in April (PPP) and you are down 4 in October (Siena).

    Not if you could release a D+5 with confidence the R couldn’t match it.

  772. CG says:

    This is not a new tactic for Roskam. When he was facing a tough race in 2008, he had a page on his website called “Obama Voters for Roskam” that was all about the relationship Roskam had with Obama when they were both serving in the State Senate and sent out similar direct mail pieces.

    Roskam has proven he knows how to win.

  773. dblaikie says:

    Undecided are very high in the Florida poll. In other words the pollster is saying I want the democrat to win, but I have no idea. Talk about meaningless. A margin of error of 3.8 and 18% undecided means this poll is useless.

  774. CG says:

    I think Joe Walsh would say there was a reason why his campaign did not release their internal polls when they were taking on Melissa Bean in 2010.

  775. DW says:

    yeah, right. A Dem candidate is thrilled the public polling, one of them a Drat pollster, says he is down four, because he knows the truth that he is actually way ahead, and its the Republican that’s hiding.

  776. CG says:

    In the case of IL 14, its a she.

    I have no idea what the internal polls of either candidate says, but even the GOP pundits here are saying the race is a Tossup.

    Even in traditionally Republican areas in Chicagoland, things are very, very bad for Republicans these days. I hope and do not believe those trying to win these races for Republicans are overconfident.

  777. DW says:

    And I suppose the Drat in IL_14 has called Silver and gotten him in on the secret, asking him to rank it Lean R, to continue the deception.

  778. DW says:

    Sabato, Gonzales, CNN, RCP, Kos, Silver, and Politico say IL_14 is Lean R, and they know how to contact people in Illinois to gather data on the status of the race. Gonzales even has the Tilt R at his disposal, and he went Lean R.

  779. CG says:

    Nate Silver is your guru now?

    I am stating my impression from someone who lives in the area and has followed this stuff for a long time. Even the conservative punditry types here are saying IL 14 and IL 6 are Tossups.

    I am not as exposed to what goes on Downstate, but clearly, Bost and Davis were highly targeted as well and even if he turned out to be a flop at the end, the candidate the Dems put up against Bost was considered their top recruit there.

  780. DW says:

    Roskam up now 48/44 in IL_06 with 255 responses in Siena–Great news, CG, right? here’s a remote high-five coming at you for this great uptick for him and the hope it continues.

  781. CG says:

    Even a “Lean R” race should not lead to overconfidence. Take nothing for granted. Learn from your experience with Rubio.

  782. CG says:

    I very much want Roskam to win.

  783. DW says:

    Why would you say Silver is my guru when I have been mocking him for weeks? The point is his rankings are by far further left than all of the others, Kos included. And he still says IL_14 is Lean R.

  784. CG says:

    I think these prognosticator types can be too poll reliant and are either too pro-Dem or too pro-GOP considering.

    I had a better track record in House races for 2014 and 2016 than Silver, et al. It’s a shame I can’t get paid like they do. I even have better hair than him.

  785. EML says:

    100 point lead for both Scott and DeSantis in NYT poll

  786. Mr.Vito says:

    They got a white GOP guy my age from Naples.

  787. Mr.Vito says:

    No… registered other but Identified GOP.

  788. DW says:

    Also Davis (R) in IL_13 up 47/40 over Dem in Siena poll with 126 responses–long way to go, but good start.

  789. CG says:

    It’s really, really weird not having a very competitive Congressional race in IL-10. All those years of Mark Kirk and Bob Dold. The last time the district wasn’t considered a Tossup was 2004, when it was fairly secure for Republicans.

    There was one (or possibly even two) Republicans who were defeated in the primary who would have given Schneider a much tougher race. Probably wouldn’t have won though in this environment.

  790. Mr.Vito says:

    Last week, the GOP said they felt they had solidified Barr, Chabot, Bost, and Davis.

    Siena seems to be leaning toward confirming GOP internals.

  791. DW says:

    CG, and when you punch-out, and pass Robbie in the hallway, give him a high-five for me in celebration of the Siena polling going on in IL_06 and IL_13. I am sure he wants to celebrate too.

  792. Waingro says:

    Ralston sounds like it was painful for him to report this.

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports
    4m4 minutes ago

    The Republicans won NV on Monday and made some gains in key legislative districts, although a key state Senate race is looking very blue. Dems still have raw vote lead. Only 3 days, but the only votes that count are not just the ones cast on Election Day. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

  793. CG says:

    I think literal celebrations of Siena polls is a bit too extreme for any normal person.

    Maybe if Siena University wins a football game..

  794. CG says:

    I wonder who is going to replace the late Dennis Hof, when he gets elected to the Nevada Assembly.

    Always a sad thing when anyone dies, even a destructive pimp such as he. I am sure that Evangelical Trump supporters had put all qualms aside in terms of his entering the political arena.

  795. NYCmike says:

    ” I am sure that Evangelical Trump supporters had put all qualms aside in terms of his entering the political arena.”

    -Harry Reid would be much better.

  796. CG says:

    This cycle might indeed be a sigh of relief for Illinois GOP Congresspeople, but the Democrats are going to have free reign to draw the next Congressional map and they are literally going to be aiming for a shutout.

    There will be 1 mile long appendages the entire length of the state so they can fit enough Democrats into every single district.

    But right-wingers decided months ago that the Bruce Rauner was worth throwing overboard over social issues.

  797. Paul says:

    That NYT Times poll doesn’t look great for Hultgren in Illinois 14. There aren’t very many dots in the big Democratic population area of Aurora.

  798. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena found someone in Coral Springs who is voting for DeSantis but not Scott.

  799. CG says:

    Bigotry against the Bald is real…

  800. DW says:

    Roskam now +5

  801. NYCmike says:

    “But right-wingers decided months ago that the Bruce Rauner was worth throwing overboard over social issues.”

    -Kind of like being in NY state, where a supposedly “Republican” Senate has kept Cuomo in check…..utter and complete b*llsh*t.

    What it has done is allowed Cuomo to look pragmatic, as opposed to the flaming lefty he is…..and on top of that, the so-called Republicans haven’t done anything about long-term costs. Sometimes the battle needs to take place on a different field to get the results needed.

  802. wheelz91 says:

    Geez Corey… If you would be a little more positive and maybe these guys would not lose. I am downstate Illinois and people hate the dems. Why did all you pansies in the collar counties all decide to become lefties. You have 4 loses in Calfornia I don’t think that will happen either.

  803. jason says:

    Donnelly no longer the favorite on Predictit… now a 55-45 underdog.

    Meanwhile GOP controls house up to 38%. I guess not every investor believes Silverhack, who only gives it a 14% chance.

  804. wheelz91 says:

    actually 5 loses in Ca. There is a lot of good news out there.. and all you can report is doom and gloom.

  805. jason says:

    Hey wheelz, welcome to HHR.

  806. jason says:

    Bruce Rauner was worth throwing overboard over social issues.”

    The same Rauner you threw overboard due to scurrilous charges about his businesses?

  807. jason says:

    Corey still talking about the dog.

    Same M.O. as Amoral Scumbag and the dog on Romney’s car.

  808. jason says:

    Geez Corey… If you would be a little more positive ”

    He is not interested in being positive.

    He already stated he won’t be unhappy if Pelosi is speaker.

  809. wheelz91 says:

    Thanks Jason. I’ve been reading this site for years. In the past I posted as justsayin’ but it won’t take that ID any more. Don’t tell anyone but I’m another “gay” republican and a paraplegic.

  810. jason says:

    jaichind says:
    October 23, 2018 at 1:09 pm

    @674 jason

    Hi. Thanks. I am not new here. I tend to post here 2-3 weeks before a national election and then disappear after that.”

    Well, hang around, we need some new blood so to speak.

  811. jason says:

    I remember justsaying’ welcome back.

    As far as the rest, sure, I will keep it a secret.

  812. Mr.Vito says:

    Quick observation watching the first 50 votes come into the Siena poll…

    the most interesting thing are the Dems undecided on Scott but voting Gillum, and Independents undecided about Desantis but voting Scott…

  813. Tgca says:

    Wheelz91

    Hey GIRLFRIEND, So nice to have you here. I just gotta snap. *SNAP* I get lonely with all these breeders sometimes. I think it’s FABULOUS that you’re out on HHR. You, me, Michael, San Diego, Bitter, and LisaB should all get together sometime. It would be FIERCE!

    Bitter is not gay but he mind as well be because he loves wearing sweaters, going to flower shows, and knows the best gay bars to hang at in Philly.

    LisaB is our resident f*g hag and can tell you anything you need to know about being gay.

    I tell ya! We’re taking over. It’s our time.

    P.S. What’s your fav vegetarian dish?

  814. NYCmike says:

    “P.S. What’s your fav vegetarian dish?”

    -Broccoli rabe, with a side of T-bone steak, bottle of red wine, prosciutto bread, and some parmesan reggiano with sopressata.

  815. NYCmike says:

    Is the World Series over yet?

  816. Tina says:

    1h
    Too late; “Doug Schoen: Democrats, we have a problem-we should focus on issues” foxnews.com/opinion/doug-s…
    View summary ·

    Muh sto

  817. EML says:

    P.S. What’s your fav vegetarian dish?
    ======================
    Bacon

  818. wheelz91 says:

    Sorry Tgca… I like meat!!! Also I don’t even own a sport coat let alone a salmon colored one.

  819. Tina says:

    I almost bought those veggie patties mentioned by tgca.

    My stomach got queasy.

  820. jason says:

    My favorite vegetarian dish is beef.

    Other vegetarians I enjoy eating are lambs, pigs, goats, and llamas.

  821. jason says:

    Although pigs are not really vegetarians. And goats will eat anything.

  822. Tgca says:

    841 Wheelz

    Of course you like meat. You’re GAY!!!

  823. jason says:

    Wheelz, don’t come here near mealtimes on account Tgca might be describing one his so called meals and you might either lose you appetite or barf.

    I carefully check to see if there is one of those posts.

  824. Tgca says:

    Don’t be so girly Tina. Be adventurous. Try ‘em. I had 2 tonight with melted cheese and a side of sweet chili sauce for dipping.

  825. jason says:

    Snifff….. Tgca didn’t invite me to the gathering….

  826. Bitterlaw says:

    Wheelz91 – Welcome back. HHR has gotten used to transformations. MD and Author are flaming liberals now. lisab leads the Utopian Socialists for Trump faction.

    I do not own a sweater.

  827. jason says:

    Tina, get the real thing.

    Veggie patties taste like crap.

    I like vegetables, like some grilled asparagus swimming in butter as a side to a big hunk of well marbled beef, but not mashed up to look like a fake burger.

  828. wheelz91 says:

    Jason you can come as my date. As long as the Yoder’s or the Borntragers’s don’t mind.

  829. jason says:

    ” I am sure that Evangelical Trump supporters had put all qualms aside in terms of his entering the political arena.”

    -Harry Reid would be much better.”

    CG isn’t for Harry Reid. He just wouldn’t be unhappy if he won.

  830. Tgca says:

    Jadon is welcome at any of our gatherings, any time. He’s just gotta try one of my veggie dishes.

  831. marc says:

    Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states

    AZ: Rs +11
    IN: Rs +12
    MT: Rs +17
    TN: Rs +33

    “GOP voters have surpassed Democratic ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.

    Only in Nevada have Democratic voters exceeded Republican voters so far in early voting.”

  832. jason says:

    Thanks wheelz but my dating days are over.

    But maybe you can distract Tgca in the garden while I go into his kitchen and throw out all the fake food.

    Since he likes fake burgers and fake hot dogs and other st-ff that looks like real food, I think he is ready to take the plunge, just needs a little push.

  833. Tgca says:

    Wheelz

    You in PA too? If so, maybe me, you, and Jason can catch a flower show with Bitter.

  834. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    11m
    Three full days of all counties in NV: 1) 3 day vote margin for Dimms 3806 2) Average Dimm vote margin per day 1268 3) Projected Dimm 13 day margin m 13611 Rosen gonna come up 20k votes short. Heller should win this.

  835. Tina says:

    The Daily Beast
    @thedailybeast
    Follow
    Sen. Jeff Flake admitted on #TheView that Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony was “very compelling” and that he’s not sure he believed Kavanaugh’s denials thebea.st/2EFwb5t
    12:20 PM – 23 Oct 2018
    GOP Sen. Jeff Flake: ‘I Don’t Know if I Believed’ Brett Kavanuagh
    The senator admitted to ‘The View’ that Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony was ‘very compelling’ and that he’s not sure he believed Kavanaugh’s denials.
    The Daily Beast The Daily Beast @thedailybeast

    Buy buy fraud flake. The mullahs are waiting to hire you, or China,

  836. Florida Guy says:

    75 polled for NYT Siena

    Scott +4
    DeSantis -5

    He is in trouble if he cannot get the same ppl as Scott…

  837. jaichind says:

    Hudson Valley Dem’s Israel gaffe at debate could prove costly

    https://nypost.com/2018/10/23/hudson-valley-dems-israel-gaffe-at-debate-could-prove-costly/

    This is Faso’s NY-19

  838. jason says:

    Evidently Gillum lied about paying back tickets and trips in the debate. Confronted with questions about emails that prove the contrary, Gillum came up with this:

    “In a FB video responding to this news, Gillum responds by claiming that those calling him out for what are seemingly clear falsehoods are just trying to “re-enforce, frankly, stereotypes about black men”

  839. mnw says:

    MT SEN & MT-AL House:

    Tester (D) 47
    Rosendale (R) 38
    Libertarian 3

    MT-AL

    Gianforte (R) 44
    DEM 41

    Montana State Univ poll. Link in next post, in case I screw it up.

  840. BayernFan says:

    There is no party registration in Indiana so I don’t know how it can be determined which party’s voters are voting. UNLESS you dig into each early voters primary voting history.

  841. mnw says:

    the link has “urelations” spelled wrong. The hell with it.

    Very depressing news about MT, &hard to paint a smiley face on it. Fwiw, I think Gianforte (R) is probably ahead by more than 3.

  842. jason says:

    I guess Flake just can’t help himself being a wishy washy spineless pansy.

  843. phoenixrisen says:

    Color me skeptical on any university poll. The best or reasonable only one I have seen is Marquette University in Wisconsin. Any other is just usually way off. Most universities are just straight up liberal centers that just do wish polls.

  844. lisab says:

    tgca,

    never been a f*g hag

    provincetown gays didn’t hang out with women,

    but i have been in rooms where i thought, “i am the only straight woman here”

  845. mnw says:

    Tina

    Funny. It’s kind of painful to watch that old f*rt bragging about all the pork he dragged home, though.

  846. Hugh says:

    So I voted for trump in 16 in Montana and the USA is killing it. So now I am going to vote for the anti trump senator tester. He doesn’t even pretend to be moderate anymore. This poll is a joke on its face. Maybe if it showed a small lead you could take it seriously. I look forward to the gloating.

  847. Phil says:

    We also have no party registration in Texas so there is no way you can say Republicans are ahead of Democrats in early Texas voting. You can try and make some party assumptions based on urban vs non urban county overall numbers but that would be assuming a lot.

  848. Mr.Vito says:

    May not have a handle on the Siena poll of Florida for a while… not even tonight… the internals are shot right now.

    Scott up 1 with women and down 8 with men.

  849. Tgca says:

    870 Mnw

    How rude! Just because Jadon loves eating pork and bragging about it here, especially slab bacon, is no reason to call him an OLD FART! We know he’s old but there’s no reason to rub it in.

  850. mnw says:

    Boy those damn NYT/Siena “live” polls get a disproportionate (& unwarranted) share of attention– considering as DW points out, they have no track record whatever in most states, & badly messed up some polls where they DO have experience.

    Nice PR/marketing thing for NYT, tho. Gotta give ’em credit.

  851. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m also EXTREMELY disappointed Siena did not separate Hispanics as a crosstab.

  852. Mr.Vito says:

    “Nice PR/marketing thing for NYT, tho. Gotta give ’em credit.”

    Yup. Good clickbait if nothing else.

  853. Wes says:

    My favorite vegetarian dish: ribeye.

  854. mnw says:

    Hi, Tg

    Good one.

    I’m too old to go vegan. But eating animals isn’t aesthetically pleasing. Isaac Bashevis Singer liked to say, “I’m a vegan for health reasons– the health of the chicken.”

  855. Mr.Vito says:

    Funny.

    Culberson was +7 when the Trump/Cruz rally started and then went all the way down to +2 during the rally. Now that the rally is over, he shot back up to +7.

    Guess the GOP was busy…

  856. sane_voter says:

    In the not too distant future, most meat will be grown in vats. So I believe the moral argument against eating meat will go away. Unless the teachers unions become vegetarian.

  857. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    With respect to the new Montana Senate Poll, the PID is R+6.
    Trump carried the State by 20 pts. and in 2014, PEW Research had the State PID at R+17.

  858. mnw says:

    A couple of features I like at RRH: 1) the deal where they hilite the posts you haven’t read yet, & 2) the thing where they give you 5 minutes to edit/correct your posts before they’re frozen.

    A feature I like at some other sites: you can login & then press a button that takes you immediately to the most recent post.

  859. mnw says:

    Sheep

    Remembe “cer” the RRH poster who was warned for saying “That’s right!” without a source, etc.?

    RRH BANNED him for a week.

  860. Hugh says:

    I have invested 1k on Rosendale and trust me tester is toast.

  861. Hugh says:

    My final 1k investment is on Heller. I have a portfolio of Scott DeSanitis Braun Rosendale and now Heller

  862. jason says:

    Tester certainly won’t win by 9.

  863. jason says:

    I just sent Karl Rove $25 because he said he would match it 5X to help needy congressional candidates.

  864. Tgca says:

    Ok. Y’all ain’t gonna believe this CHIT!

    I went to an Asian-Japanese restaurant in the burbs to get me some veggie fried rice, broccoli in garlic sauce, and veggie fun chow. I’m waiting for my take out order, and I noticed 2 of the servers were Clubmembers…if you get my drift. Then I noticed all the servers T-shirts were black with white lettering. The front of the shirt had the restaurant name. The back of the shirt stated PARADISE IN YOUR MOUTH.

    I’m like really? This has got to be a joke, right? Geez!

    I need to get one of those shirts next time I go to a gay establishment just to see how friendly folks will be to me.

  865. mnw says:

    Hawley (75%); Rosendale (not recently); Housley (not recently); Tark (de minimis).

    And Christine O’Donnell.

  866. Tgca says:

    889

    Chow fun. Duh!

  867. Hugh says:

    Tgca ha ha. Btw again why did you move to Philadelphia when you don’t drink wine. Other than being the best byob wine town in America its a @$)&&& hole.

  868. mnw says:

    See how pleasant this place can be when we get a few minutes without a troll infestation?

    I believe they’re taking over HHR & will eventually drive the real posters away, just like bad money drives out good money.

  869. lisab says:

    mnw,

    did you like my link in 867?

    i worked hard to find that for you!

  870. Tina says:

    Has Karl Rove won anything since 2006. Seems like he is a guest of the socialist on the Lido Deck.

  871. jason says:

    I am not leaving.

    I don’t mind trolls, although I wish we had smarter ones.

    Most come from the bottom of troll gene pool, alas.

  872. Tgca says:

    Hugh

    I relocated for work.

    I see you stated you voted in Coral Ridge Mall. That’s like 3 miles from my house. I went there often. I like the Publix there, cleaner than most…and the AMC Dine-in theater too.

  873. mnw says:

    Tina

    Yes, I did! Very much.

    See 870.

  874. Hugh says:

    AMC is awesome

  875. Tgca says:

    Hugh

    If I’d known you were so close to me, I’d let you take me out for an extremely expensive dinner…quite often too.

  876. jason says:

    I mean, who do we have.

    Messy, barely literate and ignorant as a doorknob.

    Proud ObamaCON, still pining for the Soviet Union and dictatorship of the proletariat.

    Paul, completely brainwashed socialist tool, thinks Democrats support small business.

    Noncensus, wrong on what, 872 predictions in a row?

    The troll team is pretty weak.

  877. Hugh says:

    Tgca. You know I’m a married man.

  878. Tgca says:

    What’s marriage got to do with taking me out expensive dinners? You can bring the wifey too.

    Jadon is married too, but that won’t stop him from coming over and enjoying my delicious veggie burgers.

  879. jason says:

    Jadon is married too, but that won’t stop him from coming over and enjoying my delicious veggie burgers”

    Absolutely true.

    What will keep me from eating that crap is my refined palate and aversion to fake food.

  880. jason says:

    “But eating animals isn’t aesthetically pleasing.”

    Speak for yourself.

    There is nothing more beautiful than a perfectly cooked (i.e. rare) ribeye.

  881. jason says:

    Corey could get rich.

    At Predictit, Pelosi is at 86% to be leader of the Democrats on 12/31/2018.

    If he thinks she will be put out to pasture, time to invest.

  882. mnw says:

    You left out the one who’s actually killing the blog, imo.. The threadpig who rips off his employer.. & thinks it’s funny. THAT troll. The one you feed.

  883. Mr.Vito says:

    Republicans won early+absentees in Washoe today.

    Early D+178
    VBM R+343

  884. Bitterlaw says:

    Tgca never invited me over to sample his fake meat. Gay bastard.

  885. Bitterlaw says:

    Tgca never invited me over to sample his fake meat. Gay bastard.

    Still trying to figure out why he has yard work renting an apartment….

  886. mnw says:

    AP tonite: “In the closing stretch of the campaign, the question is no longer about the size of the blue wave, The question is whether there will be one at all.”

  887. John says:

    John Ralston (Nevada), whom is a Democratic hack, but a hack nonetheless with information, has just tweeted…
    …”Washoe County released votes from today and the R’s erased the D’s lead and then some…”
    “also, Douglas County (huge R area) had a big turnout…”
    Waiting for the Nevada State numbers a little later…

  888. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Nevada political guru is unhappy tonight after today’s voting:

    Dems won Washoe for fourth straight day, but not by as much as first 3 days: 3,464-3,286. Republicans erased deficit and then some with win in absentees by 350 votes. Dem lead is 1,300 there.Reminder: Washoe is swing county where GOP leads by 2 percent in reg. Hillary won Washoe.

    4 replies 8 retweets 21 likes
    Reply 4 Retweet 8 Like 21

    Jon Ralston
    ?

    @RalstonReports
    16m16 minutes ago
    More
    Big turnout today (1,000) in GOP-voter-rich and rural Douglas County, where the Rs now have a huge lead of more than 1,850 ballots out of 5,300 cast early and by absentee. That is going to leave a mark.

    16 replies 11 retweets 25 likes
    Reply 16 Retweet 11 Like 25

    Jon Ralston
    ?

    @RalstonReports
    36m36 minutes ago
    More
    Waiting for urban turnout numbers: SOS has fixed data entry error and added those 2,000 rural absentees (no partisan breakdown yet). Link here:

  889. Mr.Vito says:

    5 red counties shaved another 1000 votes off the lead so far… waiting for Clark

  890. Tina says:

    Ralston Reid seems sad.

  891. mnw says:

    Tina

    Want to make sure you saw 870.

    Again, funny!

  892. John says:

    Breaking news….just noticed that the Nevada Secretary of State Elections board just messaged the numbers from yesterday.

  893. jason says:

    You left out the one who’s actually killing the blog, imo.. The threadpig who rips off his employer.. & thinks it’s funny. THAT troll. The one you feed.”

    I don’t consider Corey a troll. Besides, you probably argue with him more than I do.

  894. jason says:

    Massaged the numbers?

    We should invite him/her to HHR….

  895. sane_voter says:

    Ralston in 2014 was great. Screaming at the Dems for not voting, as the state house (R’s gained 12 seats), state senate along with NV-3 and NV-4 went GOP. I’ll take Heller and Tark/Hardy winning this year for an encore.

  896. Tina says:

    Mnw, are you replying to me or,Lisab, who did 870.

  897. Tina says:

    Sorry, meant losahs 867.

    I am done tonight.

  898. Tina says:

    Lisabs.

  899. John says:

    920
    Check the numbers, if available, from just 12 hours earlier.
    Nevada Clark County had 82,000 and then some. Just now it reads well over 83,000 and then some. And the D’s jump well close to 38,000/with totals being close to 41,500 whereas 12 hours earlier with the same update had it just over 40,000.
    You do the math.

  900. mnw says:

    lisab 894

    Yes, I did. Funny! See 870. Thx.

    Tina

    Me bad. Long day.

    I can’t go to Murphysboro, IL for MAGA. Trop vieux! Trop fatigue!

  901. MichiganGuy says:

    Not sure if this has been posted. Seen it on RRH.
    .
    Early vote count by state.
    .
    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

  902. Tgca says:

    Bitter

    I lease a house. 3 levels, 6 rooms, huge backyard.

    When the wifey kicks you out, you can hang here and mow the lawn with my new EGO electric self-propelled mower. I’ll provide lunch too: veggie burger with cheese, side of black olives, arugula with olive oil and spices, cucumber and tomato salad with spices and slivers of avocado, and a fresh fruit salad of strawberries, blueberries, peaches, and pineapple.

    If you’re still hungry, I’ll throw in a Kind Vanilla Cashew and chia protein bar with a glass of almond milk sweetened with maple syrup…all organic of course.

  903. jason says:

    Looks like Conan needs another maid or gardener…

    Conan O’Brien
    ?
    @ConanOBrien

    I was up all night, worried about this caravan of people who are willing to do the jobs that most Americans won’t.”

  904. jason says:

    Gayest food of the day.

  905. lisab says:

    mnw,

    i am glad you liked it 🙂

  906. jason says:

    Interesting site, MG.

    North Dakota

    DEM REP

    78,382 9,318 54,209

  907. mnw says:

    Two observations:

    1) The “Hamilton tickets” thing (scandal?) is getting a lot of coverage. Lasting damage to Gillum, or inconsequential? Probably the latter. Because Gillum is just so damn COOL! /s

    2) At RRH, several GOP-oriented posters are unloading on the new MT SEN poll, & their arguments against it are worthy of consideration.

  908. jason says:

    Huh

    ND

    total 78 k Dem 9.3k Rep 54.2K

  909. mnw says:

    lisab

    Glad I finally got the message to you!

    drinking + internet illiteracy = bad karma

  910. jason says:

    Trop vieux! Trop fatigue!”

    Vous êtes paresseux

  911. jason says:

    ” Tampa man has been accused of sexually assaulting a woman on a Southwest Airlines flight from Houston to Albuquerque on Sunday. After being questioned by law enforcement, Bruce Michael Alexander, 49, told authorities that “the President of the United States says it’s ok to grab women by their private parts,” according to a criminal complaint.”

  912. phoenixrisen says:

    Ralston:

    Another 1,000 turned out in Nye today, where the GOP has a 900-ballot lead WITHOUT those 1,700 absentees yet to be counted. Dems are going to need a firewall in Clark or could be trouble. Question is if this is cannibalizing Election Day for rurals. Hard to tell yet.

    Ruh-roh!! Not good for the Dems at all. If the Dems don’t have a pad going into Election Day, toast. Kind of funny how Ralston now is talking about cannibalization. It cuts both ways for both parties. The one takeaway is that both parties are turning out in early voting. However, the GOP crushes the Dems on Election Day turnout. Looking good.

  913. jason says:

    Ralston might just be trying to energize Dems…I would ignore anything he says.

  914. Mr.Vito says:

    “You do the math.”

    Okay, I did. They were just correcting some vote missed on days 1 and 3 in their report.

    There were 1353 total, and the Ds netted only 115 votes out of it.

  915. Bitterlaw says:

    Hamilton tickets? Hmmmmm. If they were for Broadway and not a touring company I might vote Dem. my daughter’s birthday is coming up and Broadat tickets for not great seats are still over $500 each. Too high.

  916. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like a better day for Dems today, but still below their reg advantage.

    about 2500 net in early vote.
    don’t know VBM yet

  917. mnw says:

    Menendez (D) now +5 in a new non-partisan poll.

  918. Mr.Vito says:

    So through Day4 (with EV in 10 red counties missing, and 2000 VBM from some red counties not included)

    For EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 3.1%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 10.2% after Day 4.

  919. mnw says:

    Vito

    Your posts are instructive.

    Plus, you stay up late.

    I like both of those qualities.

  920. MichiganGuy says:

    Gillum caught in another lie. “Text messages and other documents surrounding trips made by Florida Democratic candidate for governor Andrew Gillum are being turned over as part of an ongoing ethics investigation.

    Some of the documents appear to contradict Gillum’s assertion that he paid for all expenses related to two trips to Costa Rica and New York City.”
    .
    http://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/ap-online/2018/10/23/new-documents-contradict-florida-democratic-nominee-gillum0

  921. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “But eating animals isn’t aesthetically pleasing”

    Animals seem to enjoy it, they spend most of their time eating each other.

  922. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    If there weren’t carnivores, plant-eating animals would soon multiply to a number that would deplete their plant food supply, and they would starve.

    A fact of life on earth is there needs to be carnivores that eat other animals to maintain a biologically healthy balance. If someone does not want to eat meat, I can respect that decision, particularly if someone is doing it for heath reasons; but not if they claim that not eating animals makes them morally superior.

    PETA is now claiming that drinking milk is an act of white supremacy. A lot of the vegan activists impress me as being deranged.

  923. MichiganGuy says:

    NT