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Braun Leads By 4% in IN, Tester Leads By 3% in MT

Yesterday, we got a new poll from Indy Politics and Mason Strategies that shows Republican Mike Braun with a 4% lead over Joe Donnelly in the state of Indiana.

US SENATE – INDIANA (Mason)
Mike Braun (R) 47%
Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 43%
Lucy Brenton (L) 3%

This poll was done October 15-20 among likely voters. Meanwhile in Montana, where Republicans are also hoping t pick off a seat, Montana State University and Montana Television Network have Democrat Jon Tester up by 3% over Matt Rosendale.

US SENATE – MONTANA (MSU/MTN)
Jon Tester (D-inc) 46%
Matt Rosendale (R) 43%

This poll was done September 16-October 6 among likely voters. i guess it take that long to get enough voters in a poll in Montana.

Posted by Dave at 6:11 am
Filed under: General | Comments (120)

120 Responses to “Braun Leads By 4% in IN, Tester Leads By 3% in MT”

  1. EML says:

    Numero Uno

  2. wheelz91 says:

    First!!!!

  3. Wes says:

    The residents of the Sewer State will reelect a child rapist/criminal who escaped punishment thanks to a hung jury. Disgusting.

  4. MichiganGuy says:

    Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.
    .
    https://pjmedia.com/davidsteinberg/official-school-records-support-claims-that-rep-ilhan-omar-d-mn-married-her-brother/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    Say what? mnw says marriage fraud that’s what. lol

  5. John says:

    Through late Tuesday night Clark County (Nevada) had a reduction in early voting from Monday but it may begun to plateau off with regard to percentages…
    (Obama won Clark by 19% in 2008, by 14.6% in 2012, and Hillary won Clark by 10.71%)
    So far…
    D’s – 44.93%
    R’s 36.31%
    Difference – 8.62%
    The benchwater mark according to some is at 10% for D’s to win.

  6. Wes says:

    Hm. Mikey’s now expanded his goals from helping Dems win Senate seats to helping them win gubernatorial races too:

    https://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/10/massachusetts_gov_charlie_bake_31.html

  7. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    HeThrough yesterday, the Republicans continue to look good in Florida. All major Blue Counties have been accounted for with a number of Red Counties out on in-person voting.

    Republicans- 623,206
    Democrats- 570,046

    DIFFERENCE- 53,160

    The aforementioned include both mail-in and in-peron data.

  8. EML says:

    Republicans won the day in Florida it looks like. Increased mail in ballot lead from 54,709 to 58,627. Dems increased in person lead from 4,053 to 5,467. 39 counties have not yet started in person voting; 37 of them voted for Trump.

  9. EML says:

    Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.
    =========================
    Her twitter is hilarious. Star Tribune needs to pick up this story. Hard to see how this is survivable unless the MSM runs interference for her.

  10. Todd McCain says:

    Yep, GOP more than holding their own in the person EV voting.

  11. EML says:

    Man accused of smashing another man over the head with witch’s cauldron in Salem

    Has anyone heard from Jul lately?

    https://tinyurl.com/ydaeav58

  12. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    24m
    1) NV collapse, more: D numbers drop off from 2016 levels went 73% to 79% of 2016 levels overnight! (I.e., Ds went from expecting to hit 27% of 2016 totals to now just 21%). D NV expert John Ralston said Ds need a “Clark Firewall” to save them. Don’t count on it.
    View details ·
    Larry Schweikart Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    26m
    NV collapse! Overnight totals from NV as the “red rurals” came in suggest a possible blowout in the making for Laxalt and even Heller. At this rate, Ds would finish early voting with a mere 9,900 advantage, which would leave Rosen 35k short.
    View details ·

  13. Mr.Vito says:

    October surprise?

    https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/data-2019-individual-health-insurance-market-conditions

    “The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services released data showing average premiums rates will drop in 2019 for individual health insurance plans sold on the HealthCare.gov platform.

    Specifically, the average premium for the Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan (SLCSP) is expected to drop by 1.5 percent. In addition, more health insurers are entering the market in 2019, providing more plan choices for consumers. These developments suggest health insurance markets across much of the country are stabilizing after a number of difficult years.”

  14. Tina says:

    https://lidblog.com/rust-belt-jobs/

    This article about the Job gains in several Midwest states is interesting.

  15. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    17s
    McLaughlin tells Hannity Ds only up 2 points nationally (which of course is meaningless) and Trump at 48% (which is a good 10 points low). I believe we’re starting to see a red wave. I have not used that term, but evidence is mounting that this is more than “holding the House”
    View details ·

    @LarrySchweikart
    1m
    GOP shows new strength in early voting, as midterm fight for control tightens fxn.ws/2q64NmT #FoxNews Whaaaat? Just YESTERDAY Fox was telling us that DemoKKKrats were leading in “early voting.” Liars. Ds led for two days in NV until the “Red Rurals” came in. That’s it.

  16. Todd McCain says:

    Well, to be fair, we aren’t “leading” in Nevada, we have just cut into the lead — Dems lead by around 4000 or so looks like after 4 days.

  17. hugh says:

    I made my final 1k investment in Heller. So Scott, Desantis, Braun, Rosendale and Braun were the other 4. I worry most about DeSantis.

  18. Tina says:

    Well, the Clark county firewall is important for the Drats.

    Washoe is plus 2 R, but could g either way.

    That is why, minimize the projected loss out of Clark, maximize out of Washoe, and do really well in the rest (rural).

  19. Bitterlaw says:

    I give credit to Corey for dedicating so much time to each race. Corey to ignore me in 3…2…1…

  20. DW says:

    “Question is if this is cannibalizing Election Day for rurals.”

    That from Ralston…but again I highlight the stupidity of talking about cannibalizing election day vote. EVERY voter gets to vote ONCE (except in Philly and Chicago), so if you vote early, you have ‘cannibalized’ your ability to vote on election day, and if you do not vote early, you can still vote on election day.

    This keeps getting framed like one party’s numbers are bad, because they have cannibalized their election day vote, but the other party is in great shape because they voted early, but did not cannibalize their election day vote.

  21. Todd McCain says:

    Once the rest of the rural counties are counted and they fix that 1700 ballot issue in Nye county, the Dems will likely only have picked up a few hundred votes yesterday in NV. Leading by around 4000.

  22. Todd McCain says:

    Hawley released internal poll showing him up 7.

  23. Todd McCain says:

    A Menendez loss would be so great, but wishful thinking.

  24. Messy says:

    4.Had the Republican not been worse, politically (he loves everything Trump stands for), he might have had a better chance.

    Remember, Trump says this election is all about Trump.

  25. Skippy says:

    Updated Wednesday morning:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.55%
    Democrats 38.65%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,627

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 43.07%
    Democrats 39.39%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +53,160

    Democrats have to be worrying at this point about these numbers.

  26. DW says:

    New Morning Consult out in Generic Ballot. Was D+7, new one is D+6.

  27. Messy says:

    16. I believe those numbers are only of Republicans or those who voted in 2010.

  28. DW says:

    Survey Monkey and YouGov out with Trump approval at -1, -3, and both taken of registered voters.

  29. DW says:

    BOOM!

    NV Senate – IPSOS

    Rosen 41%
    Heller 47%

  30. DW says:

    Same poll has Laxalt up 46/41

  31. jason says:

    Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.”

    People who opposed gay marriage said this would happen.

    Yes, I was one of those who laughed.

  32. DW says:

    IPSOS also has walker -3, 45/48 in WI

  33. Todd McCain says:

    Skippy,

    I agree; if these numbers continue, regardless of what the latest polls say, I don’t see how Nelson can win unless he is winning the Indy vote 60-40.

  34. jason says:

    Hugh, those are generous contributions

    Between your $1000 and my $25, HHR has contributed at least $1025 to Heller.

  35. DW says:

    FL_15

    In response to both SUSA and Siena who showed the race tied, the Republican released an internal showing a lead of 47/41. In response this morning the Dem released an internal showing it tied at 47/47.

    I guess the dem figures it will make people believe SUSA and Siena were right, but it tells me the opposite, that SUSA and Siena are a little lean D, and the truth is probably R+3 to R+4

  36. Skippy says:

    Todd,

    I agree. Democrats will start dominating the EV but overall the numbers are showing Republicans will be right on the tail of Democrats with VBM + EV going into Election Day. Could Nelson be up that much with INDY voters to squeak out a victory over Scott? I suppose so…but I’d rather be in Scott’s shoes than Nelson’s this Wednesday morning, 13 days out from the election.

  37. Todd McCain says:

    Hawley 49
    Claire 42

    R internal

  38. jason says:

    4.Had the Republican not been worse, politically (he loves everything Trump stands for), he might have had a better chance.”

    Translation:

    It’s ok to elect the child rapist/criminal because the opponent is aligned with Trump.

    It’s interesting that Messy, Amoral Scumbag and Corey all have the same talking point.

    If it’s bad for Trump, it’s good.

  39. jason says:

    That poll may be the reason I pointed out Walker closed the gap considerably at Predictit and is now given a 45% chance.

  40. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida
    .
    Senate
    .
    Nelson 49
    Scott 45
    .
    Governor
    .
    Gillum 49%
    DeSantis 43%
    .
    Gravis
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Florida_October_23_2018.pdf

  41. jason says:

    Dang, convoluted sentence.

    I hope Messy’s war on grammar isn’t contagious.

  42. Waingro says:

    Link to that Hawley BOOM internal.

    NEW: @HawleyMO leads @clairecmc by 7 points in closely watched #MOSEN, according to a fresh poll conducted for the challenger’s campaign.
    washex.am/2D2nhNK

  43. MichiganGuy says:

    Missouri Senate Poll
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/claire-mccaskill-on-the-ropes-per-fresh-poll-from-josh-hawley
    —————————————————————————————————————-
    Am I the only one that knows a poll is useless with out a link so, we can see the DATA!

  44. Waingro says:

    #42, bah. Florida polling continues to suck.

  45. DW says:

    Gravis and Qinnipiac have been the most left-leaning all cycle. Not saying they are right or wrong, just they are to the left of everyone else.

  46. Todd McCain says:

    47. IKR! The polling has been disappointing but the EV numbers look great.

  47. MichiganGuy says:

    Texas Senate
    .
    Cruz 49%
    O’Rourke 44%
    .
    Ipsos
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/cruz-leading-texas-senate-race

  48. MichiganGuy says:

    Wisconsin Governor
    .
    Evers 48%
    Walker 45%
    .
    Ipsos
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/wisconsin-gubernatorial-race-tied

  49. DW says:

    BOOM

    Generic Ballot – Rasmussen

    R44 / D47

    Basically a hold from their prior poll

  50. jason says:

    DW, boom for a “hold from the prior poll” is sort of an oxymoron.

  51. DW says:

    54 – sure…its easy to say one poll unlike others around it is an outlier. But two polls in a row basically the same.

  52. jason says:

    Over a DKos they have a banner running at the top of the page with Trump’s job approval, Generic ballot, Dem party approval, R party approval… and one that says “gun control”

    But it doesn’t say what type of gun control… just gun control.

    Approve 54% Oppose 40%

    Zzzzzzzz…..

  53. Hugh says:

    I will take the over under on Scott. I’m worried about DeSantis. Lots of new bad stuff on Gillum but is it not enough or too late

  54. Todd McCain says:

    Target Point: (not sure if these are internals)

    Walters up 8 in CA 45

    Comstock tied in VA 10

    Riggelman up 5 in VA 05

    Fitzpatrick down 4 in PA 01

    Coffman down 5 in CO 06

  55. DW says:

    “Comstock tied in VA 10”

    “not sure if these are internals’

    You answered your own question.

    Wes, covering for you here while you are out.

  56. DW says:

    Todd, do you have a link to those polls?

  57. Phil says:

    Still trying to figure out how 538 still has Sky Queen winning by 2, Donnelly winning by 4, and the Arizona loon winning by 2. Heidi only losing by 4 is also a mystery. I can understand Silver having Nelson winning by 3 since the last four polls out of Florida have been really disappointing. Oh, and he continues to show Tester’s lead continuing to grow. 538 has it at 8 now.

  58. Phil says:

    Still trying to figure out how 538 still has Sky Queen winning by 2, Donnelly winning by 4, and the Arizona loon winning by 2. Heidi only losing by 4 is also a mystery. I can understand Silver having Nelson winning by 3 since the last four polls out of Florida have been really disappointing. Oh, and he continues to show Tester’s lead continuing to grow. 538 has it at 8 now.

  59. DW says:

    Here is the actual link:

    https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TPC-Polling-Memo-Final1.pdf

    Does not appear to be internal polling.

    R/D

    NY_21: 50/40
    OH_16: 48/39
    TX_02: 49/40
    CA_45: R+8 (no numbers given)
    VA_05: 48/43
    VA_10: 47/47
    PA_01: 45/49 Fitzpatrick (R) leads among those who already voted, 54%-46%
    CO_06: 43/48 Coffman (R) leads among those who already voted, 54%-46%

  60. jason says:

    When Dems start saying “don’t look at polls”…..
    and “we could lose everything again”….

    “A former speechwriter for President Barack Obama zinged Democrats as he addressed unfounded claims that are being made by President Donald Trump and other Republicans about the migrant caravan traveling through Mexico.

    On Tuesday’s broadcast of “The Late Show,” Jon Lovett pretended to agree with the right-wing conspiracy theory that leading Democrats, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, were organizing the thousands of people from Central America heading for the U.S. because they wanted their votes.

    “I love the idea Democrats are organizing voters in Honduras when we can’t even organize voters in Pennsylvania,” Lovett told host Stephen Colbert.

    Lovett, who appeared alongside his fellow “Pod Save America” podcasters Tommy Vietor and Jon Favreau, also urged people not to look at polls as the November midterms approach.

    “It doesn’t matter what the early votes look like, it doesn’t what the polls look like, we could lose everything,” he said. “We lost everything two years ago, we could lose everything again. Oh my God”

  61. jason says:

    Still trying to figure out how 538″

    It’s not rocket science.

    He is a bought and paid for partisan hack.

    If he doesn’t show Dems doing well his raison d”être is gone.

    You can bet 90% of his traffic are moonbats, and who else reads his “commentary”?

    He almost got crucified when he dared say he thought Trump had a 25% chance of winning.

  62. DW says:

    I have moved CA_24 out of my certain to flip back to the uncertain category:

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 7 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_45, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  63. jason says:

    54 – sure…its easy to say one poll unlike others around it is an outlier. But two polls in a row basically the same.”

    Ahhh, I get it.

    Boom-Boom.

  64. Hugh says:

    Jason is right. Follow the money. Everything he does is click bait.

  65. DW says:

    *whoops…no idea how I said CA_24, meant to say CA_45

  66. Phil says:

    I have seen at least 7 or 8 polls out of Texas and we’ve yet to see a single poll showing Beto beyond 45 percent. Most have him around 43 or 44. Needle is stuck for Democrats at the same number that they have maxed out in during every presidential election since 1980.

  67. mnw says:

    Good morning.

    I wanted to play late last night, but everyone was gone. What’s this place good for if it can’t even entertain inebriated insomniacs, I ask you?

    I regard the Ipsos NV poll as the best & biggest new development. DW is right to assign that a one Boom.

    However, the RAS generic actually moved 3-points the WRONG way for the GOP, I think.. Wasn’t it tied last Wed.? Pretty sure it was.

    Schweikart is happy as a pig in zh*t today about EV, etc. I’m a Schweikart guy, for which I get considerable grief at RRH. They generally regard him as a one-hit wonder; a vulgar Breitbart-style cheerleader, with bright red pom poms; and a huckster.

    Hawley’s internal doesn’t interest me. The DEMs are still pouring money in by the dumptruck load.

  68. DW says:

    mnw…that’s fine, I can withdraw the BOOM on the Ras generic ballot. I recalled their last one was close, but was thinking -2. Maybe I was wrongly recalling the Selzer poll.

    But my reaction was more that we have had days now of D+11, D+13, etc., and so here came one that sticks to a tossup, meaning no blue-wave, and GOP holds house.

  69. Phil says:

    Would be nice to get a Mason-Dixon poll out of Montana, Arizona, Indiana.

    I don’t understand all the polling out of Texas compared to the almost zero polls from other states. What, they are just going to poll, poll, poll Texas until Beto in magically up?

  70. Waingro says:


    MichiganGuy says:
    October 24, 2018 at 9:19 am

    Wisconsin Governor
    .
    Evers 48%
    Walker 45%
    .
    Ipsos
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/wisconsin-gubernatorial-race-tied

    Waiting for the last MULaw poll to see where this race is truly at. It does look like it’s going to be close! Pulling for Governor Walker. We need Dems/Libs heads to explode for a 4th time!

  71. Waingro says:

    Oh boy. This is BAD. Not just “leftist” targets anymore.

    Jake Tapper
    ?Verified account @jaketapper
    2m2 minutes ago

    .@evanperez reports: Another suspicious package with a device addressed to the White House was intercepted at Joint Base Bolling in Washington, DC. According to a law enforcement official, the device was similar to ones sent to homes of Soros, Clintons and Obamas.

    Jim Sciutto
    ?Verified account @jimsciutto

    Breaking: CNN NY office evacuated. Police bomb squad is here. We’re told of explosive device received. @CNNnewsroom

  72. DW says:

    Silver just posted the TargetInsight polls, but he lists them as campaign internals. But the Target Insight data says only that the ones who paid for the polls did not wish to be disclosed.

  73. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV U.S. Senate race
    ##########################################
    Bad news for Morrisey keeps piling up…
    In the last couple weeks a visit by VP Pence in Wheeling and a visit by Donald Trump Jr. in the eastern panhandle each only drew about 300 people.
    ______________________
    1. I hear this morning that a new poll is out that shows Manchin up something like 52 to 38 over Morrisey.

    Accd. to poll, Morrisey only getting 67% of R voters support.

    2. Manchin did a press conference yesterday saying that WV AG morrisey is about to accept a $35 MM settlement from a drug DISTRIBUTOR (NOT MANUFACTURER)because the SHIPPED millions of opioid prescription drugs (oxy.co.din) to WV and Morrisey was going to have a press conference Friday to disclose this and score political points in the Senate race.

    Morrisey’s office denies this…Manchin won’t say who his sources were that tipped him off to this alleged thing.

    3. Manchin has ads up hitting Morrisey for stonewalling a year old FOIA brought by DSCC in Washington to disclose all info from AG office about all communication with drug manufacturers and wholesale distributors.

    TODAY, a WV circuit judge ruled in favor of the DSCC and reamed Morrisey and his office for stonewalling the year old FOIA request.
    *********************************************
    Morrisey still gets my vote but I think he is toast.

  74. mnw says:

    DW

    No, you are right that Trump’s JA has improved EVERYWHERE, across the board. The Wise Men even concede that. RAS is about where it has been for the last 3 weeks. There’s a summary of Trump’s JA improvement overt RRH in the comments this morning.

    The FL polls are saying one thing, & Schweickart the opposite. He says the Panhandle is starting to show up about like always.

  75. Skippy says:

    Huuummmmmm…..

    Obama is being sent to Detroit?

    John James is making his move.

  76. Todd McCain says:

    Trump did a deal with Manchin: Vote for Kav and I wont campaign anymore against you; I truly believe this.

  77. mnw says:

    Cow

    Manchin is a canny old bird. His political skills impress me. We discussed his Saban/Jerry West event. That was ingenious.

    Here is a puzzle: as it became clear in the final two days that Kavanaugh was likely to be confirmed, why didn’t the red state DEMs (other than Manchin) cast a meaningless YES vote, to placate their constituents?

    I don’t understand the risk/reward calculus of Heitkamp, McCaskill & Donnelly.

  78. MichiganGuy says:

    “John James is making his move.”
    .
    Is he going on vacation?

  79. MichiganGuy says:

    Trump Approval:
    Survey Monkey 49%
    YouGov 47%
    FoxNews 47%
    RAS 46%
    .
    The only off message on Twitter from Trump was the horse face commit and it shows; when he keeps on message his Approval goes up.

  80. MichiganGuy says:

    sb comment

  81. MichiganGuy says:

    McCaskill’s Closing Message Is She’s Not a Crazy Democrat
    .
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/24/politics/claire-mccaskill-crazy-democrats/index.html
    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    Remind you of someone? Hint (I’m not a witch)

  82. jason says:

    Too bad about Morissey… Manchin is such a huge fraud.

  83. JeffP says:

    One thing that I have not heard about much at all is …what about the impact of DJT approval increase in blacks and hispanic voters and its impact on the mid-term? ”

    You would think with the record level economic numbers that impact them and a “Kanye” effect and “walk away” movement will have some sort of impact this election regarding minority voting…right?

    Place like Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, etc…

  84. jason says:

    I don’t understand the risk/reward calculus of Heitkamp, McCaskill & Donnelly.

    Heitkamp was toast either way.

    The other 2 probably figured it was a wash, they would lose some of the moonbat vote if they voted to confirm, so they might as well.

  85. Waingro says:

    So now the “false flag” crazies will recommence with their nonsense.

    U.S. Secret Service
    ?Verified account @SecretService
    6m6 minutes ago

    CLARIFICATION: At this time the Secret Service has intercepted TWO suspicious packages – one in NY and one in D.C. Reports of a third intercepted package addressed to the WH are incorrect. We refer media to our statement: https://bit.ly/2R8jYYn

  86. Jayhawker says:

    If all the counties had reported their Early Vote numbers it is quite likely that Republicans would have a lead by at least 3,895 in Early votes.

    Ok, so I through all the 2014, 2016 and 2018 EV and VBM numbers into the spreadsheet. The EV numbers are almost meaningless at this point as so many counties are missing. What I did was include the net R versus D number if they had reported any. Then I took the percentage of 2016 that has been reported about 6.5%. Then I took the net vote from 16 at the end of the period and multiplied it by 6.5%.

    First thing I noticed was that with the percentages of the vote in from the counties that are in, the D’s lead should have been double of what it is currently. Then I added the percentages of 6.5% and came up with a R lead of just Early votes of 3,895, which is using the less favorable 2016 numbers. So the actual lead could be higher.

    For VBM

    If you bump the panhandle up to the a conservative percentage of Escambia county of 44.5% of 16 vote the republican lead in VBM increased by 4,400. That is using the ending 16 margin. So the increase in margin should be larger than the 4,400.

  87. jason says:

    Might as well vote no.

    I think my mind is affected by hunger.

    While Tgca was eating squirrel food for breakfast, I had six slices of slab bacon, a couple slices of scrapple, a three egg extra sharp cheddar omelet, and a whole skillet of mushrooms sauteed in Amish butter (who said I don’t like vegetables.. ok, I know, technically mushrooms are not a vegetable, GFYs) but that was hours ago and lunch is still an hour away.

  88. Janz says:

    I don’t know the size of the walkaway movement. However, it certainly represents yet another arm of dissent directed @ the Dems. Supposedly they are planning their first public event in DC at the end of this month – just before the elections.

  89. janz says:

    What does VBM stand for?

  90. NYCmike says:

    Vote By Mail

    or

    Vegans Buy Maalox

  91. DW says:

    St Leo U out with FL poll showing Nelson +8 and Gillum +12.

  92. DW says:

    But St. Leo also found way too many undecided at this late stage.

  93. MichiganGuy says:

    DW, link?

  94. Redmen4ever says:

    Seats in play (strictly based on my running average of the polls):

    Lean D: MT
    Toss-up: AZ, FL, IN, MO, NV
    Lean R: TN*

    *stale polling average

    Today’s polling is good news for MO and NV, and disappointing for MT, but not so much as to cause me to re-classify them yet.

    IN is a special case. The Libt is drawing 8 points. I’m guessing about half of those voters will sober up by the time of the election.

    So, as of right now, I’m thinking a net pick-up of 2 to 4 seats, depending on how AZ and FL turn out. The problem is, to paraphrase Admiral Nimitz, “I want that [fourth aircraft carrier) fifth Senate seat.”

  95. NYCmike says:

    Have to say – when polls show such a wide lead in Florida it makes me think they are bogus, but I guess since Rick Scott only got 48% or so back in 2014, the people in Florida could go Democratic.

  96. Marv says:

    #99 Red,

    Admiral Nimitz was a national treasure!

  97. MichiganGuy says:

    I would of thought the Hurricane would of gave Scott a boost. Maybe, people think he didn’t have a good response?

  98. jason says:

    GOP to control House up to 40% on Predictit

  99. Todd McCain says:

    Media to say Trump’s rhetoric is causing all the bomb threats in 3….2…1….

  100. Todd McCain says:

    No doubt the polling has gotten away from the GOP in Florida, but there is reason to be optimistic given the EV numbers so far.

  101. Marv says:

    #103 Michigan,

    I think that we have to pay attention to the VBM and EV numbers from here on in and ignore any poll. The actual votes being recorded tend to show a GOP win here in FL.

  102. MichiganGuy says:

    Marv, that depends we don’t know how the No Party Affiliation voters are voting.

  103. Todd McCain says:

    I obviously want to win FLSEN, but would also be happy with ND, IN and MO with holding AZ and NV. This all appears likely two weeks out.

  104. Marv says:

    #108 Michigan,

    True, however the GOP turnout so far is quite impressive.

  105. mnw says:

    Gillum says his bribe problems with the FBI are because “Republicans don’t like black men.”

    Video link at powerlineblog.com

  106. GeauxLSU says:

    I am not sure how these Florida polls being conducted recently can be taken seriously. A large part of the panhandle has been without power and and a large part of entire towns have been wiped by the hurricane. Governor Scott has been on the ground and very visible in responding. I am very confident that he wins despite what the polls say at this point. I am concerned about the Governor’s race but Gillum does seem to have some legal issues that could be a problem.

  107. jason says:

    Not all the polls in FL are bad, some are very close…too much hand wringing here.

  108. jason says:

    Todd McCain says:
    October 24, 2018 at 11:45 am

    Media to say Trump’s rhetoric is causing all the bomb threats in 3….2…1….”

    Yep, without even knowing who sent them yet.

    It could even be a moonbat for all we know.

  109. DW says:

    From RRH:

    Day 13 FL.
    Another big day of in person early voting & big day of VBM returns.
    Up to 1,446,011 ballots in.
    GOP: 623,206
    DEM: 570,046

  110. jason says:

    With all the cameras around I imagine its pretty hard to mail packages undetected. They should be able to trace the packages and maybe capture the sender on video.

    I remember that moonbat who stole Bush debate videos and sent them to the Dems was caught on tape mailing them.

  111. MichiganGuy says:

    NT

  112. Redmen4ever says:

    Polls and EV

    There are lots of problems with polls. Just look at the mess of polls we’re getting from Florida.

    Assuming the difference among polls is sampling error, averaging across them makes sense. But, they’re variance is more than can be explained by sampling error. So, there must be problems in them beyond sampling error. Could be inadvertent bias. Could be deliberate bias. Could be “Shy Tories.”

    All that to the side, the EV shows conclusively that Republicans are determined to vote. Nobody is dragging Republicans to the polls, drugging them, threatening them, or bribing them with cartons of cigarettes.

  113. Todd McCain says:

    Rural numbers are coming in from NV now for yesterday; essentially we held the Dems to even.