Braun Leads By 4% in IN, Tester Leads By 3% in MT
Yesterday, we got a new poll from Indy Politics and Mason Strategies that shows Republican Mike Braun with a 4% lead over Joe Donnelly in the state of Indiana.
US SENATE – INDIANA (Mason)
Mike Braun (R) 47%
Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 43%
Lucy Brenton (L) 3%
This poll was done October 15-20 among likely voters. Meanwhile in Montana, where Republicans are also hoping t pick off a seat, Montana State University and Montana Television Network have Democrat Jon Tester up by 3% over Matt Rosendale.
US SENATE – MONTANA (MSU/MTN)
Jon Tester (D-inc) 46%
Matt Rosendale (R) 43%
This poll was done September 16-October 6 among likely voters. i guess it take that long to get enough voters in a poll in Montana.
Numero Uno
First!!!!
The residents of the Sewer State will reelect a child rapist/criminal who escaped punishment thanks to a hung jury. Disgusting.
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.
.
https://pjmedia.com/davidsteinberg/official-school-records-support-claims-that-rep-ilhan-omar-d-mn-married-her-brother/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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Say what? mnw says marriage fraud that’s what. lol
Through late Tuesday night Clark County (Nevada) had a reduction in early voting from Monday but it may begun to plateau off with regard to percentages…
(Obama won Clark by 19% in 2008, by 14.6% in 2012, and Hillary won Clark by 10.71%)
So far…
D’s – 44.93%
R’s 36.31%
Difference – 8.62%
The benchwater mark according to some is at 10% for D’s to win.
Hm. Mikey’s now expanded his goals from helping Dems win Senate seats to helping them win gubernatorial races too:
https://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/10/massachusetts_gov_charlie_bake_31.html
HeThrough yesterday, the Republicans continue to look good in Florida. All major Blue Counties have been accounted for with a number of Red Counties out on in-person voting.
Republicans- 623,206
Democrats- 570,046
DIFFERENCE- 53,160
The aforementioned include both mail-in and in-peron data.
Republicans won the day in Florida it looks like. Increased mail in ballot lead from 54,709 to 58,627. Dems increased in person lead from 4,053 to 5,467. 39 counties have not yet started in person voting; 37 of them voted for Trump.
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.
=========================
Her twitter is hilarious. Star Tribune needs to pick up this story. Hard to see how this is survivable unless the MSM runs interference for her.
Yep, GOP more than holding their own in the person EV voting.
Man accused of smashing another man over the head with witch’s cauldron in Salem
Has anyone heard from Jul lately?
https://tinyurl.com/ydaeav58
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
24m
1) NV collapse, more: D numbers drop off from 2016 levels went 73% to 79% of 2016 levels overnight! (I.e., Ds went from expecting to hit 27% of 2016 totals to now just 21%). D NV expert John Ralston said Ds need a “Clark Firewall” to save them. Don’t count on it.
View details ·
Larry Schweikart Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
26m
NV collapse! Overnight totals from NV as the “red rurals” came in suggest a possible blowout in the making for Laxalt and even Heller. At this rate, Ds would finish early voting with a mere 9,900 advantage, which would leave Rosen 35k short.
View details ·
October surprise?
https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/data-2019-individual-health-insurance-market-conditions
“The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services released data showing average premiums rates will drop in 2019 for individual health insurance plans sold on the HealthCare.gov platform.
Specifically, the average premium for the Second Lowest Cost Silver Plan (SLCSP) is expected to drop by 1.5 percent. In addition, more health insurers are entering the market in 2019, providing more plan choices for consumers. These developments suggest health insurance markets across much of the country are stabilizing after a number of difficult years.”
https://lidblog.com/rust-belt-jobs/
This article about the Job gains in several Midwest states is interesting.
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
17s
McLaughlin tells Hannity Ds only up 2 points nationally (which of course is meaningless) and Trump at 48% (which is a good 10 points low). I believe we’re starting to see a red wave. I have not used that term, but evidence is mounting that this is more than “holding the House”
View details ·
@LarrySchweikart
1m
GOP shows new strength in early voting, as midterm fight for control tightens fxn.ws/2q64NmT #FoxNews Whaaaat? Just YESTERDAY Fox was telling us that DemoKKKrats were leading in “early voting.” Liars. Ds led for two days in NV until the “Red Rurals” came in. That’s it.
Well, to be fair, we aren’t “leading” in Nevada, we have just cut into the lead — Dems lead by around 4000 or so looks like after 4 days.
I made my final 1k investment in Heller. So Scott, Desantis, Braun, Rosendale and Braun were the other 4. I worry most about DeSantis.
Well, the Clark county firewall is important for the Drats.
Washoe is plus 2 R, but could g either way.
That is why, minimize the projected loss out of Clark, maximize out of Washoe, and do really well in the rest (rural).
U.S. House Illinois- Iowa
http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-house-predictions-illinois-iowa.html
I give credit to Corey for dedicating so much time to each race. Corey to ignore me in 3…2…1…
“Question is if this is cannibalizing Election Day for rurals.”
That from Ralston…but again I highlight the stupidity of talking about cannibalizing election day vote. EVERY voter gets to vote ONCE (except in Philly and Chicago), so if you vote early, you have ‘cannibalized’ your ability to vote on election day, and if you do not vote early, you can still vote on election day.
This keeps getting framed like one party’s numbers are bad, because they have cannibalized their election day vote, but the other party is in great shape because they voted early, but did not cannibalize their election day vote.
Once the rest of the rural counties are counted and they fix that 1700 ballot issue in Nye county, the Dems will likely only have picked up a few hundred votes yesterday in NV. Leading by around 4000.
Hawley released internal poll showing him up 7.
A Menendez loss would be so great, but wishful thinking.
4.Had the Republican not been worse, politically (he loves everything Trump stands for), he might have had a better chance.
Remember, Trump says this election is all about Trump.
Updated Wednesday morning:
Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:
Republicans 40.56%
Democrats 38.43%
Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
Republicans +58,224
Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:
Republicans 38.34%
Democrats 39.80%
Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
Democrats +96,450
————————
Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:
Republicans 43.55%
Democrats 38.65%
Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
Republicans +58,627
Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:
Republicans 43.07%
Democrats 39.39%
Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
Republicans +53,160
Democrats have to be worrying at this point about these numbers.
New Morning Consult out in Generic Ballot. Was D+7, new one is D+6.
16. I believe those numbers are only of Republicans or those who voted in 2010.
Survey Monkey and YouGov out with Trump approval at -1, -3, and both taken of registered voters.
Same poll has Laxalt up 46/41
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) married her brother.”
People who opposed gay marriage said this would happen.
Yes, I was one of those who laughed.
IPSOS also has walker -3, 45/48 in WI
Skippy,
I agree; if these numbers continue, regardless of what the latest polls say, I don’t see how Nelson can win unless he is winning the Indy vote 60-40.
Hugh, those are generous contributions
Between your $1000 and my $25, HHR has contributed at least $1025 to Heller.
FL_15
In response to both SUSA and Siena who showed the race tied, the Republican released an internal showing a lead of 47/41. In response this morning the Dem released an internal showing it tied at 47/47.
I guess the dem figures it will make people believe SUSA and Siena were right, but it tells me the opposite, that SUSA and Siena are a little lean D, and the truth is probably R+3 to R+4
Todd,
I agree. Democrats will start dominating the EV but overall the numbers are showing Republicans will be right on the tail of Democrats with VBM + EV going into Election Day. Could Nelson be up that much with INDY voters to squeak out a victory over Scott? I suppose so…but I’d rather be in Scott’s shoes than Nelson’s this Wednesday morning, 13 days out from the election.
Hawley 49
Claire 42
R internal
4.Had the Republican not been worse, politically (he loves everything Trump stands for), he might have had a better chance.”
Translation:
It’s ok to elect the child rapist/criminal because the opponent is aligned with Trump.
It’s interesting that Messy, Amoral Scumbag and Corey all have the same talking point.
If it’s bad for Trump, it’s good.
That poll may be the reason I pointed out Walker closed the gap considerably at Predictit and is now given a 45% chance.
Florida
.
Senate
.
Nelson 49
Scott 45
.
Governor
.
Gillum 49%
DeSantis 43%
.
Gravis
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Florida_October_23_2018.pdf
Dang, convoluted sentence.
I hope Messy’s war on grammar isn’t contagious.
Link to that Hawley BOOM internal.
NEW: @HawleyMO leads @clairecmc by 7 points in closely watched #MOSEN, according to a fresh poll conducted for the challenger’s campaign.
washex.am/2D2nhNK
#31 Nevada Senate Poll
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepolls/republicans-gain-ground-in-texas-nevada-u-s-senate-races-poll-idUSKCN1MY18D
Missouri Senate Poll
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/claire-mccaskill-on-the-ropes-per-fresh-poll-from-josh-hawley
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Am I the only one that knows a poll is useless with out a link so, we can see the DATA!
#42, bah. Florida polling continues to suck.
Gravis and Qinnipiac have been the most left-leaning all cycle. Not saying they are right or wrong, just they are to the left of everyone else.
47. IKR! The polling has been disappointing but the EV numbers look great.
Texas Senate
.
Cruz 49%
O’Rourke 44%
.
Ipsos
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/cruz-leading-texas-senate-race
Wisconsin Governor
.
Evers 48%
Walker 45%
.
Ipsos
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/wisconsin-gubernatorial-race-tied
Nevada Governor
.
Laxalt 46%
Sisolak 41%
.
Ipsos
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/laxalt-leads-rosen-in-nevada-gubernatorial-race
DW, boom for a “hold from the prior poll” is sort of an oxymoron.
54 – sure…its easy to say one poll unlike others around it is an outlier. But two polls in a row basically the same.
Over a DKos they have a banner running at the top of the page with Trump’s job approval, Generic ballot, Dem party approval, R party approval… and one that says “gun control”
But it doesn’t say what type of gun control… just gun control.
Approve 54% Oppose 40%
Zzzzzzzz…..
I will take the over under on Scott. I’m worried about DeSantis. Lots of new bad stuff on Gillum but is it not enough or too late
Target Point: (not sure if these are internals)
Walters up 8 in CA 45
Comstock tied in VA 10
Riggelman up 5 in VA 05
Fitzpatrick down 4 in PA 01
Coffman down 5 in CO 06
“Comstock tied in VA 10”
“not sure if these are internals’
You answered your own question.
Wes, covering for you here while you are out.
Todd, do you have a link to those polls?
https://freebeacon.com/politics/comstock-tied-new-poll/
Still trying to figure out how 538 still has Sky Queen winning by 2, Donnelly winning by 4, and the Arizona loon winning by 2. Heidi only losing by 4 is also a mystery. I can understand Silver having Nelson winning by 3 since the last four polls out of Florida have been really disappointing. Oh, and he continues to show Tester’s lead continuing to grow. 538 has it at 8 now.
Still trying to figure out how 538 still has Sky Queen winning by 2, Donnelly winning by 4, and the Arizona loon winning by 2. Heidi only losing by 4 is also a mystery. I can understand Silver having Nelson winning by 3 since the last four polls out of Florida have been really disappointing. Oh, and he continues to show Tester’s lead continuing to grow. 538 has it at 8 now.
Here is the actual link:
https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TPC-Polling-Memo-Final1.pdf
Does not appear to be internal polling.
R/D
NY_21: 50/40
OH_16: 48/39
TX_02: 49/40
CA_45: R+8 (no numbers given)
VA_05: 48/43
VA_10: 47/47
PA_01: 45/49 Fitzpatrick (R) leads among those who already voted, 54%-46%
CO_06: 43/48 Coffman (R) leads among those who already voted, 54%-46%
When Dems start saying “don’t look at polls”…..
and “we could lose everything again”….
“A former speechwriter for President Barack Obama zinged Democrats as he addressed unfounded claims that are being made by President Donald Trump and other Republicans about the migrant caravan traveling through Mexico.
On Tuesday’s broadcast of “The Late Show,” Jon Lovett pretended to agree with the right-wing conspiracy theory that leading Democrats, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, were organizing the thousands of people from Central America heading for the U.S. because they wanted their votes.
“I love the idea Democrats are organizing voters in Honduras when we can’t even organize voters in Pennsylvania,” Lovett told host Stephen Colbert.
Lovett, who appeared alongside his fellow “Pod Save America” podcasters Tommy Vietor and Jon Favreau, also urged people not to look at polls as the November midterms approach.
“It doesn’t matter what the early votes look like, it doesn’t what the polls look like, we could lose everything,” he said. “We lost everything two years ago, we could lose everything again. Oh my God”
Still trying to figure out how 538″
It’s not rocket science.
He is a bought and paid for partisan hack.
If he doesn’t show Dems doing well his raison d”être is gone.
You can bet 90% of his traffic are moonbats, and who else reads his “commentary”?
He almost got crucified when he dared say he thought Trump had a 25% chance of winning.
I have moved CA_24 out of my certain to flip back to the uncertain category:
My current outlook on the House:
Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:
Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 7 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.
Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips
Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04
GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_25, CA_45, CA_48, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01
Net = D+20
Dems 3 short of capturing control.
54 – sure…its easy to say one poll unlike others around it is an outlier. But two polls in a row basically the same.”
Ahhh, I get it.
Boom-Boom.
Jason is right. Follow the money. Everything he does is click bait.
*whoops…no idea how I said CA_24, meant to say CA_45
I have seen at least 7 or 8 polls out of Texas and we’ve yet to see a single poll showing Beto beyond 45 percent. Most have him around 43 or 44. Needle is stuck for Democrats at the same number that they have maxed out in during every presidential election since 1980.
Good morning.
I wanted to play late last night, but everyone was gone. What’s this place good for if it can’t even entertain inebriated insomniacs, I ask you?
I regard the Ipsos NV poll as the best & biggest new development. DW is right to assign that a one Boom.
However, the RAS generic actually moved 3-points the WRONG way for the GOP, I think.. Wasn’t it tied last Wed.? Pretty sure it was.
Schweikart is happy as a pig in zh*t today about EV, etc. I’m a Schweikart guy, for which I get considerable grief at RRH. They generally regard him as a one-hit wonder; a vulgar Breitbart-style cheerleader, with bright red pom poms; and a huckster.
Hawley’s internal doesn’t interest me. The DEMs are still pouring money in by the dumptruck load.
mnw…that’s fine, I can withdraw the BOOM on the Ras generic ballot. I recalled their last one was close, but was thinking -2. Maybe I was wrongly recalling the Selzer poll.
But my reaction was more that we have had days now of D+11, D+13, etc., and so here came one that sticks to a tossup, meaning no blue-wave, and GOP holds house.
Would be nice to get a Mason-Dixon poll out of Montana, Arizona, Indiana.
I don’t understand all the polling out of Texas compared to the almost zero polls from other states. What, they are just going to poll, poll, poll Texas until Beto in magically up?
”
MichiganGuy says:
October 24, 2018 at 9:19 am
Wisconsin Governor
.
Evers 48%
Walker 45%
.
Ipsos
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/wisconsin-gubernatorial-race-tied”
Waiting for the last MULaw poll to see where this race is truly at. It does look like it’s going to be close! Pulling for Governor Walker. We need Dems/Libs heads to explode for a 4th time!
Oh boy. This is BAD. Not just “leftist” targets anymore.
Jake Tapper
?Verified account @jaketapper
2m2 minutes ago
.@evanperez reports: Another suspicious package with a device addressed to the White House was intercepted at Joint Base Bolling in Washington, DC. According to a law enforcement official, the device was similar to ones sent to homes of Soros, Clintons and Obamas.
Jim Sciutto
?Verified account @jimsciutto
Breaking: CNN NY office evacuated. Police bomb squad is here. We’re told of explosive device received. @CNNnewsroom
Silver just posted the TargetInsight polls, but he lists them as campaign internals. But the Target Insight data says only that the ones who paid for the polls did not wish to be disclosed.
WV U.S. Senate race
##########################################
Bad news for Morrisey keeps piling up…
In the last couple weeks a visit by VP Pence in Wheeling and a visit by Donald Trump Jr. in the eastern panhandle each only drew about 300 people.
______________________
1. I hear this morning that a new poll is out that shows Manchin up something like 52 to 38 over Morrisey.
Accd. to poll, Morrisey only getting 67% of R voters support.
2. Manchin did a press conference yesterday saying that WV AG morrisey is about to accept a $35 MM settlement from a drug DISTRIBUTOR (NOT MANUFACTURER)because the SHIPPED millions of opioid prescription drugs (oxy.co.din) to WV and Morrisey was going to have a press conference Friday to disclose this and score political points in the Senate race.
Morrisey’s office denies this…Manchin won’t say who his sources were that tipped him off to this alleged thing.
3. Manchin has ads up hitting Morrisey for stonewalling a year old FOIA brought by DSCC in Washington to disclose all info from AG office about all communication with drug manufacturers and wholesale distributors.
TODAY, a WV circuit judge ruled in favor of the DSCC and reamed Morrisey and his office for stonewalling the year old FOIA request.
*********************************************
Morrisey still gets my vote but I think he is toast.
DW
No, you are right that Trump’s JA has improved EVERYWHERE, across the board. The Wise Men even concede that. RAS is about where it has been for the last 3 weeks. There’s a summary of Trump’s JA improvement overt RRH in the comments this morning.
The FL polls are saying one thing, & Schweickart the opposite. He says the Panhandle is starting to show up about like always.
Huuummmmmm…..
Obama is being sent to Detroit?
John James is making his move.
Trump did a deal with Manchin: Vote for Kav and I wont campaign anymore against you; I truly believe this.
Cow
Manchin is a canny old bird. His political skills impress me. We discussed his Saban/Jerry West event. That was ingenious.
Here is a puzzle: as it became clear in the final two days that Kavanaugh was likely to be confirmed, why didn’t the red state DEMs (other than Manchin) cast a meaningless YES vote, to placate their constituents?
I don’t understand the risk/reward calculus of Heitkamp, McCaskill & Donnelly.
“John James is making his move.”
.
Is he going on vacation?
Trump Approval:
Survey Monkey 49%
YouGov 47%
FoxNews 47%
RAS 46%
.
The only off message on Twitter from Trump was the horse face commit and it shows; when he keeps on message his Approval goes up.
sb comment
McCaskill’s Closing Message Is She’s Not a Crazy Democrat
.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/24/politics/claire-mccaskill-crazy-democrats/index.html
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Remind you of someone? Hint (I’m not a witch)
Too bad about Morissey… Manchin is such a huge fraud.
One thing that I have not heard about much at all is …what about the impact of DJT approval increase in blacks and hispanic voters and its impact on the mid-term? ”
You would think with the record level economic numbers that impact them and a “Kanye” effect and “walk away” movement will have some sort of impact this election regarding minority voting…right?
Place like Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, etc…
I don’t understand the risk/reward calculus of Heitkamp, McCaskill & Donnelly.
Heitkamp was toast either way.
The other 2 probably figured it was a wash, they would lose some of the moonbat vote if they voted to confirm, so they might as well.
So now the “false flag” crazies will recommence with their nonsense.
U.S. Secret Service
?Verified account @SecretService
6m6 minutes ago
CLARIFICATION: At this time the Secret Service has intercepted TWO suspicious packages – one in NY and one in D.C. Reports of a third intercepted package addressed to the WH are incorrect. We refer media to our statement: https://bit.ly/2R8jYYn
If all the counties had reported their Early Vote numbers it is quite likely that Republicans would have a lead by at least 3,895 in Early votes.
Ok, so I through all the 2014, 2016 and 2018 EV and VBM numbers into the spreadsheet. The EV numbers are almost meaningless at this point as so many counties are missing. What I did was include the net R versus D number if they had reported any. Then I took the percentage of 2016 that has been reported about 6.5%. Then I took the net vote from 16 at the end of the period and multiplied it by 6.5%.
First thing I noticed was that with the percentages of the vote in from the counties that are in, the D’s lead should have been double of what it is currently. Then I added the percentages of 6.5% and came up with a R lead of just Early votes of 3,895, which is using the less favorable 2016 numbers. So the actual lead could be higher.
For VBM
If you bump the panhandle up to the a conservative percentage of Escambia county of 44.5% of 16 vote the republican lead in VBM increased by 4,400. That is using the ending 16 margin. So the increase in margin should be larger than the 4,400.
Might as well vote no.
I think my mind is affected by hunger.
While Tgca was eating squirrel food for breakfast, I had six slices of slab bacon, a couple slices of scrapple, a three egg extra sharp cheddar omelet, and a whole skillet of mushrooms sauteed in Amish butter (who said I don’t like vegetables.. ok, I know, technically mushrooms are not a vegetable, GFYs) but that was hours ago and lunch is still an hour away.
I don’t know the size of the walkaway movement. However, it certainly represents yet another arm of dissent directed @ the Dems. Supposedly they are planning their first public event in DC at the end of this month – just before the elections.
What does VBM stand for?
Vote By Mail
or
Vegans Buy Maalox
St Leo U out with FL poll showing Nelson +8 and Gillum +12.
But St. Leo also found way too many undecided at this late stage.
DW, link?
Seats in play (strictly based on my running average of the polls):
Lean D: MT
Toss-up: AZ, FL, IN, MO, NV
Lean R: TN*
*stale polling average
Today’s polling is good news for MO and NV, and disappointing for MT, but not so much as to cause me to re-classify them yet.
IN is a special case. The Libt is drawing 8 points. I’m guessing about half of those voters will sober up by the time of the election.
So, as of right now, I’m thinking a net pick-up of 2 to 4 seats, depending on how AZ and FL turn out. The problem is, to paraphrase Admiral Nimitz, “I want that [fourth aircraft carrier) fifth Senate seat.”
Nevermind DW, I know you’re lazy.
.
http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Saint-Leo-University-Polling-Report-Florida-Political-Polling-Results-October-2018.pdf
Have to say – when polls show such a wide lead in Florida it makes me think they are bogus, but I guess since Rick Scott only got 48% or so back in 2014, the people in Florida could go Democratic.
#99 Red,
Admiral Nimitz was a national treasure!
I would of thought the Hurricane would of gave Scott a boost. Maybe, people think he didn’t have a good response?
GOP to control House up to 40% on Predictit
Media to say Trump’s rhetoric is causing all the bomb threats in 3….2…1….
No doubt the polling has gotten away from the GOP in Florida, but there is reason to be optimistic given the EV numbers so far.
#103 Michigan,
I think that we have to pay attention to the VBM and EV numbers from here on in and ignore any poll. The actual votes being recorded tend to show a GOP win here in FL.
Marv, that depends we don’t know how the No Party Affiliation voters are voting.
I obviously want to win FLSEN, but would also be happy with ND, IN and MO with holding AZ and NV. This all appears likely two weeks out.
#108 Michigan,
True, however the GOP turnout so far is quite impressive.
Gillum says his bribe problems with the FBI are because “Republicans don’t like black men.”
Video link at powerlineblog.com
I am not sure how these Florida polls being conducted recently can be taken seriously. A large part of the panhandle has been without power and and a large part of entire towns have been wiped by the hurricane. Governor Scott has been on the ground and very visible in responding. I am very confident that he wins despite what the polls say at this point. I am concerned about the Governor’s race but Gillum does seem to have some legal issues that could be a problem.
Let’s hope DeSantis destroys Gillum in tonight’s debate.
.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-ne-governor-broward-debate-advance-20181023-story.html
Not all the polls in FL are bad, some are very close…too much hand wringing here.
Todd McCain says:
October 24, 2018 at 11:45 am
Media to say Trump’s rhetoric is causing all the bomb threats in 3….2…1….”
Yep, without even knowing who sent them yet.
It could even be a moonbat for all we know.
From RRH:
Day 13 FL.
Another big day of in person early voting & big day of VBM returns.
Up to 1,446,011 ballots in.
GOP: 623,206
DEM: 570,046
With all the cameras around I imagine its pretty hard to mail packages undetected. They should be able to trace the packages and maybe capture the sender on video.
I remember that moonbat who stole Bush debate videos and sent them to the Dems was caught on tape mailing them.
NT
Polls and EV
There are lots of problems with polls. Just look at the mess of polls we’re getting from Florida.
Assuming the difference among polls is sampling error, averaging across them makes sense. But, they’re variance is more than can be explained by sampling error. So, there must be problems in them beyond sampling error. Could be inadvertent bias. Could be deliberate bias. Could be “Shy Tories.”
All that to the side, the EV shows conclusively that Republicans are determined to vote. Nobody is dragging Republicans to the polls, drugging them, threatening them, or bribing them with cartons of cigarettes.
Rural numbers are coming in from NV now for yesterday; essentially we held the Dems to even.