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Nelson Leads By 4% in FL, Gillum Leads By 5% in FL, Menendez Leads By 5% in NJ

Gravis Marketing has come out with a new poll for the state of Florida (man we are getting a lot of polls in Florida) that shows what most other recent polls are showing, mid-single digit leads for both Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum.

US SENATE – FLORIDA (Gravis)
Bill Nelson (D-inc) 49%
Rick Scott (R) 45%

GOVERNOR – FLORIDA (Gravis)
Andrew Gillum (D) 51%
Ron DeSantis (R) 46%

This poll was done October 22-23 among 773 likely voters. Meanwhile in New Jersey, Bob Menendez is hanging onto a 5% lead himself in his bid for another term according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

US SENATE – NEW JERSEY (Rutgers)
Bob Menendez (D-inc) 51%
Bon Hugin (R) 46%

This poll was done October 12-19 among 496 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 12:26 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (1,636)

1,636 Responses to “Nelson Leads By 4% in FL, Gillum Leads By 5% in FL, Menendez Leads By 5% in NJ”

  1. MichiganGuy says:

    First!

  2. BayernFan says:

    good god Hillary is making a campaign speech about this incident.

  3. BayernFan says:

    DWS did it?

  4. Victrc says:

    Lucky number 5blike last nights lottery winner. (Had the number 5 in the 5 numbers and 5 as the bonus number). Can you believe only one winner for $910M cash payout!

  5. Waingro says:

    So all the Siena/NYTimes live polling links are behind a paywall? Bah.

  6. Todd McCain says:

    Actually, once those other rural counties come in, we might have won Nevada again yesterday by a few hundred votes.

  7. DW says:

    5 – try a different browser. I have been able to avoid paying by switching browsers and leaving it open–don’t refresh. Each time you refresh they count it as a ‘free’ trial that gets used up after four or five ‘visits’

  8. EML says:

    Just open in incognito mode

  9. DW says:

    Watch to see if McCaskill answers with her own internal poll release. If she doesn’t it probably means she can’t.

  10. Tom says:

    And the liberal blame game to start in 3-2-1….

  11. Tom says:

    With zero acknowledgement of their role in this.

  12. Ron N says:

    Poor CNN they are makeing these bombs all about them and it’s president Trump fault. What a surprise.

  13. janz says:

    Thanks NYC for responding to my question posted on the previous thread!

  14. Mr.Vito says:

    Thankfully the only thing that’s ever been bombed at CNN is still Don Lemon on New Year’s Eve.

  15. Victrc says:

    You know the media is going to run with this in all the swing states and districts. Saying trump wanted/ordered this. See we can’t trust republicans. Blah blah blah

    Let’s this has little to no effect on last minute voters who are undecided or on the fence.

  16. Messy says:

    10-11. False flag conspiracy theory. Typical.

    3. Hardee harharhar

    2. The bomber sent a bomb to her. It could have killed an employee.

  17. Mr.Vito says:

    If I were Trump, I would simply say, we are going to catch this guy and put them in a hole with MS-13. Now go to defeat the Democrats at The Ballot Box on November 6th.

  18. Victrc says:

    Guess this is the lefts October surprise handed to them. Will be interesting to see how it plays out, though they now get to play the victim card in all its glory.

    I trust in their speeches they will be denouncing the terrorists acts of Antifa as well as the physical harassment of republican members of Congress.

    Wait, want it holder who said “kick them” last week, and Hillary saying they wouldn’t be civil. But yes, they have no role in the increased hostility in America.

  19. Mr.Vito says:

    Let’s see… Obama, Clinton, Soros, Wasserman Schultz, CNN…

    Still 50% odds it’s a Bernie supporter…

  20. DW says:

    Mason-Dixon in a poll of 500 registered voters, not likely voters, says Noem is tied in SD gov race 45/45

  21. lisab says:

    Media to say Trump’s rhetoric is causing all the bomb threats in 3….2…1….”
    ———————————

    i thought it was melania

    but then the wh bomb turned out to be a hoax

  22. lisab says:

    the thing is,

    who is smart enough to know how to make a package bomb,

    but is stupid enough to send them through the mail

    so they would definitely get caught?

  23. Mr.Vito says:

    Marco Rubio
    @marcorubio
    ·
    1h
    Some already giving in to temptation to react to this terror attack by either assigning blame for or rationalizing it. No sane or well intentioned person,no matter how partisan,would do this. It’s either the work of a demented person or terror aimed at further dividing America.

  24. lisab says:

    plus who would want to target obama and clinton now? two years ago, sure. but now?

    unless it was bernie

  25. NYCmike says:

    “but is stupid enough to send them through the mail”

    -Gotta go with UPS or FEDEX.

    For all we know, they were sent years ago, and the USPS finally got around to delivering them…….

  26. Mr.Vito says:

    22 the cnn one was delivered by courier… seems even dumber

  27. wheelz91 says:

    Is this considered a BOOM!!!

    Larry Schweikart? @LarrySchweikart · 49m49 minutes ago:
    CO: Mike Coffman (R) is winning early voters by a margin of 54 to 46 percent.
    He is considered one of the extremely vulnerable Rs, absolutely necessary to a D takeover of the House.

  28. lisab says:

    For all we know, they were sent years ago, and the USPS finally got around to delivering them…….
    ——————

    good catch! 🙂

    i was gonna say why attack yesterday’s news

    but with the usps, you never know

  29. DW says:

    “CO: Mike Coffman (R) is winning early voters by a margin of 54 to 46 percent.”

    How is that known? Are they scanning the ballots and tallying the results 13 days early?

  30. wheelz91 says:

    I’m sure it means 54 percent registered republican ballots returned and 46 dims.

  31. lisab says:

    well the return address was wasserman-shultz

    i am not sure the fbi should discount that 🙂

    she has motive

  32. JeffP says:

    Right on time…Soros son with op ed in NY Times blaming Trump for bombs….can you say coordinated? These people really think you are stupid.

  33. jason says:

    I smell a rat here…

    Hillary and Obama… really?

  34. Barrett says:

    Sad to see people resort to violence.

    Top 5 suspects
    – Russia
    – Monica
    – Bernie
    – Kory101
    – Kanye

  35. Phil says:

    Sorry, but none of this passes rhe smell test to me.

  36. Mr.Vito says:

    Just another chance for Trump to look presidential… and the media to look like hacks.

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/24/trump-acts-or-threats-political-violence-have-no-place-united-states

  37. jason says:

    They need to get to the bottom of this ASAP.

    Seems to me that with “hand delivered” bombs, mailed bombs, etc. there has to be a trail of evidence leading back to the perpetrator.

  38. Mr.Vito says:

    Every network is going to have to play those remarks.

  39. Barrett says:

    Phil, I wouldn’t go as far as to say that any of the targeted individuals staged this.

    However, there are plenty of people who could have staged it on their behalf, with the hopes of improving Dem chances in the midterms.

    Honestly, for security to pick up 6 packages so easily, with no loss of life, against political has-beens….doesn’t pass the smell test for me either. Someone is trying to paint the entire right wing of the United States as crazy before election day.

  40. Mr.Vito says:

    They will also end up having to cover the ricin sent to Republicans when they try to ambush commentators.

  41. DW says:

    Harris Interactive Generic ballot updated. Was D+9, now D+6

  42. jason says:

    It was placed in Hillary’s and Soros’ mailbox?

    I am sure her house has cameras everywhere, same with Soros.

  43. jason says:

    And if its not some right wing nutcase, it’s going to backfire big on the Dems and the MSM.

  44. Mr.Vito says:

    “It was placed in Hillary’s and Soros’ mailbox?

    I am sure her house has cameras everywhere, same with Soros.”

    Crowdstrike is on it.

  45. Mr.Vito says:

    Are they sure it wasn’t just a clock?

  46. Barrett says:

    Vito, Hillary’s was a clock.

    It read 3:00 am

  47. jason says:

    They are already trying to inoculate themselves…

    So even if its a liberal it’s Trump’s fault

    “Irrespective of what this person’s political leanings or motivations are, we are living in an atmosphere where hate and violence have been not only incited but condoned by Donald Trump,” Philippe Reines, former deputy assistant secretary of State under Hillary Clinton and an outside adviser who helped train Clinton for presidential debates in 2016, told MSNBC’s Craig Melvin.

    He argued that Trump is to blame, even if the person behind the bombings is “the most liberal person in America.”

  48. Cash Cow TM says:

    “Here is a puzzle: as it became clear in the final two days that Kavanaugh was likely to be confirmed, why didn’t the red state DEMs (other than Manchin) cast a meaningless YES vote, to placate their constituents?”
    **************************
    Answer: Party agenda over what is best for country

  49. CG says:

    Bodyslams not bombs!

  50. CG says:

    In regards to Kavanaugh, I think Donnelly, Tester, McCaskill came to the conclusion that they had more to lose by voting yes in that a lot of Democrats would no longer vote for them, and that those votes were probably more likely than Republican crossover votes would be anyway.

  51. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow has put aside all work on the missing Malaysian jetliner, monkeys and deer and is hard at work on the mailed bombs to discover the culprit.
    #########################################
    Early analysis seems to have far left fingerprints on it…

    (…just like the ‘spontaneous’ 13,000 central American illegals marching to invade the U.S. on election day.)

  52. DW says:

    Morrisey internal:

    Manchin 42%
    Morrisey 44%

  53. Mr.Vito says:

    Day4 update (one red county missing EV and 2000 VBM from some red counties not included)

    For EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 2.1%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 10.2% after Day 4.

  54. CG says:

    Is the Caravan going to arrive by Election Day?

    They should have started earlier then if that is the “reason” they were sent.

    Maybe they will all be diverted to Mississippi for the runoff Senate election in December if they can pick up the pace.

  55. Redmen4ever says:

    dead giveaway … the address was written in cursive

  56. Cash Cow TM says:

    perpetrator

    tater rep pro
    prorate pert
    proper T rate
    left winger

  57. DW says:

    UT_04 and NY_27 added to Siena’s pile of polls.

  58. DW says:

    And again, I point out that Siena is only interested in trying to find surprisingly weak GOP seats, with no interest in checking NV_03, NV_04, NH_01, or AZ_01 or any others like that.

  59. jason says:

    Hard to figure some of these NFL players. Presumably making an NFL team fulfills a lifelong dream. Yet so many of them throw it all away.

    Broncos release back-up QB who was charged with entering someone’s home at 1 AM and sitting on the couch next to a woman with a baby, mumbling incoherently until the husband kicked him out by hitting him with a vacuum cleaner hose.

    Remember Rae Carruth, who sacrificed his career and spent 20 years in jail for ordering a hit on his pregnant girlfriend? He is getting out of jail next month, plans to be a barber.

  60. DW says:

    Prediction:

    Look for a generic ballot rescue poll in the next 24 hours. Today’s polls were D+3 in a likely voter sample, and two D+6 in Registered voter samples.

    That cannot stand. One of the regulars will come out with D+13 in the next 24 hours.

  61. Redmen4ever says:

    face palm not mail bomb

    alternate facts not anthrax

    get it together not ricin letter

    looking for calm not a ticking time bomb

    want a unifier not another unibomber

  62. Cash Cow TM says:

    OK…so far I have examined the evidence and figured out the bo.mbs were made by a male.

    80% chance he is right handed.

    The writing might be done by either a man or possible a woman.

  63. Cash Cow TM says:

    I have also ruled out any involvement by and WV citizen.

  64. DW says:

    And another–IPSOS generic ballot. Last was D+10, today D+5

  65. Cash Cow TM says:

    Why does “womb” and “comb” not rhyme with “bomb”?

  66. Cash Cow TM says:

    Nobody from ME, NH or VT is involved…

    I am narrowing it down!

  67. jason says:

    Ah, yes, the “body slam”…

    Some of these narratives don’t quite work out as intended, the idea was that MT was going to a elect moonbat because Gianforte body slammed some little partisan turd of a reporter who kept shoving a mike in his face after being told to back off several times.

    In the end, nobody cared. Gianforte won by 7 and the moonbat ended up with 44%.

  68. Cash Cow TM says:

    Everyone in WY has now been Cow-cleared.
    RI also.

  69. jason says:

    he writing might be done by either a man or possible a woman.”

    What a racist bastard….

    So many more options and he narrows it down to two.

  70. Cash Cow TM says:

    The perpetrator often wears a hat.
    Either a toboggan or a ball cap.

  71. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow has cleared everyone in NM and SC…

  72. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow is exhausted with this investigation…
    I may have to take a nap.

  73. jason says:

    Nazi fighter plane crashes on CA freeway.

    According to Iowahawk, the Nazis made two serious mistakes..invading Russia and taking the 101 North during rush hour.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/23/california-nazi-plane-world-war-ii-crash#img-1

  74. Cash Cow TM says:

    Further Cow work indicates the suspected perpetrator(s) is/are not in Hawaii…

  75. Mr.Vito says:

    “Why does “womb” and “comb” not rhyme with “bomb”?”

    Different etymologies.

  76. Cash Cow TM says:

    Perp has short hair…

  77. Jayhawker says:

    What states have a breakdown like Florida, Arizona, Nevada and Iowa do for early voting and voting by mail?

  78. Cash Cow TM says:

    EVeryone in the sister states of ND and SD have been cleared.

  79. jason says:

    Thanks Cow, great work.

    We would send you a couple bales of hay, but the HHR discretionary fund is depleted on account that Mr. Vito has not done any fund raising since elected as Governor.

    We don’t even know what happened to the surplus the Bitter/jason Administration left.

  80. Cash Cow TM says:

    Say…one trick used by perpetrators who send such devices to others is to

  81. Mr.Vito says:

    The siena poll of the open NM seat came out 45-44 for the Republican.

  82. DW says:

    So today’s generic ballot polls:

    D+3 – Rasmussen – likely voters
    D+5 – IPSOS – likely voters
    D+6 – Harris – Registered voters
    D+6 – Morning Consult – Registered voters

    That looks to me like a net of D+20 in the house, which is exactly what I have been predicting.

  83. Cash Cow TM says:

    Say…one trick used by perpetrators who send such devices to others is to

    SEND ONE TO THEMSELVES TO MAKE IT SEEM LIKE THEY ARE A TARGET AND NOT THE PERP!
    &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
    Cow now gathering info on George Soros…

  84. Jayhawker says:

    #82, I will take the under of that.

  85. Diamond Jim says:

    Mr. Vito has not done any fund raising since elected as Governor.

    He probably did and secretly “socked it away”.

  86. Mr.Vito says:

    82 Yougov normally would come out today, but is late apparently.

  87. Mr.Vito says:

    “Mr. Vito has not done any fund raising since elected as Governor.”

    My term should have ended long ago, but HHR seems to have made me Governor for life.

  88. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The very liberal Salt Lake City Tribune endorsed Mia Love for re-election. It is the first Republican they have endorsed that I can remember; they supported Clinton and Obama. They cited her experience, as well as being the only Republican member of the Congressional Black caucus, and also her stands on immigration which are more “humane and realistic” than other Republicans.

  89. Mr.Vito says:

    I have not abused my power, but I could always execute an order 66 with all of your undergarments.

  90. jason says:

    My term should have ended long ago, but HHR seems to have made me Governor for life.”

    I guess that the general feeling is that you are doing such a great job, why upset the apple cart.

    But I would get rid of all those yarn store receipts in case there is an audit.

  91. jason says:

    I don’t understand why Utah would support a liberal rag…

  92. DW says:

    So today’s generic ballot polls:

    D+3 – Rasmussen – likely voters
    D+5 – IPSOS – likely voters
    D+6 – Harris – Registered voters
    D+6 – Morning Consult – Registered voters
    D+6 – Economist/YouGov

  93. DW says:

    RCP hasn’t added the IPSOS yet, and once they do their average will drop below 8.0 even with the CNN poll in it.

  94. Mr.Vito says:

    yougov is +6 again… rcp just posted it.

  95. Cash Cow TM says:

    FBI says “We are asking anyone with useful information to contact the FBI by calling 1-800-CALL-FBI.”

    Cash Cow says you can also call 1-800-CALL-COW.

    So far, I have done more to narrow the search for the perps than has the FBI…

  96. Mr.Vito says:

    yougov definite voters:

    Guys: 79%
    Gals: 73%

    Age 45+: 82%
    Under45: 61%

    White: 81%
    Black: 59%
    Latno: 53%

    Rep: 80%
    Dem: 76%
    Ind: 71%

    TrumpVoter: 83%
    ClntnVoter: 81%

    Lib: 80%
    Cons: 79%
    Mod: 74%

  97. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t understand why Utah would support a liberal rag…”

    -Human interest/tragedy stories tend to be on the front pages……and everyone loves a nice car wreck!

    My parents are in their late 80’s, still get the paper (NY Daily News) delivered every morning, read it front to back, do the jumble and crossword together (what a scene that is!)…..then when I go and visit, the first things they say usually start with “Did you see what they wrote in the News the other day……?”.

  98. jason says:

    Tgca hardest hit. While I enjoy slab bacon, he snarfs up some of that good ole weed killer…yum, yum, yum….

    “Two months after warning consumers that some food products may contain trace amounts of glyphosate, a weed-killing chemical linked to cancer, the Environmental Working Group (EWG) is back with an expanded warning. In a test, EWG took samples of 28 different oat-based cereals and oat-based foods that are meant for kids and found trace amounts of a pesticide that exceed EWG’s thresholds”

  99. Mr.Vito says:

    EarlyVote so far

    Clark: 78.2% of 2016 totals
    Washoe: 78.0% of 2016 totals
    Rurals: 82.8% of 2016 totals

  100. CG says:

    I see that the Salt Lake Tribune also endorsed Romney this year.

  101. CG says:

    I think part of the story for why the SLC Tribune has leaned left is because it is the competition paper for the conservative Deseret News, which is owned by the LDS Church.

  102. jason says:

    There are more Clinton voters than Trump voters so I guess that category is a wash.

    But again, all this depends on where these people are located.

    If 90% of the libs are voting in CA and only 70% in MO and MT, it will make a difference.

  103. jason says:

    None of these bombs exploded. Has anyone said whether they were meant to?

  104. DW says:

    NY_22 – Siena – Regular poll, not NY Times

    Brindisi (D) 46%
    Tenney (R) 45%
    Undecided 9%

    Their prior poll was 44/46, so a slight gain, but keep in mind the post I made about Siena, how in all 7 competitive NY house seats from 2014 and 2016 their poll favored the Dem compared to the actual results.

  105. jason says:

    Utah is about 63% Mormon, so I guess there is room for a more liberal paper. And not all Mormons are conservative.

  106. CG says:

    I once heard some Mormons are a little bit country, some are a little bit rock n roll.

  107. Hugh says:

    We all know those percentages are way too high. Also every poll where we are not performing well about 5% more women are polled than men. This YouGov poll seems more realistic.

  108. CG says:

    In 2016, the staunchly conservative Deseret News endorsed “Not Donald Trump” for President.

  109. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    91. “I don’t understand why Utah would support a liberal rag…”

    Actually it doesn’t, and the Salt Lake Tribune is in trouble.

    The Salt Lake City Tribune was historically the non-Mormon newspaper in Utah, and has always been very liberal. The more conservative newspaper in Utah is the Mormon owned Deseret News. The Salt Lake Tribune is failing badly, and recently laid of one third of its newsroom staff. Its print circulation fell from 85,000 to 31,000, and add revenue fell 40%. Its not long for this world. The Huntsman family bought the paper several years ago, and has spent millions of dollars in trying to revive it. Perhaps the endorsement of Mia Love is an attempt to move the newspaper in a more moderate direction.

  110. NYCmike says:

    Mormons don’t send flowers either!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5evKY5n0GM

  111. CG says:

    I see also that the in addition to endorsing Love and Romney, the SL Tribune endorsed the Democrats running in the other districts, whom have no chance at all of winning.

  112. CG says:

    I don’t know anything about Mormons and flowers, but George Romney left a fresh flower every morning for his wife until the day he died.

  113. NYCmike says:

    “In 2016, the staunchly conservative Deseret News endorsed “Not Donald Trump” for President.”

    -And the next day, there was a letter from a reader which stated “There is no lever which says “Not Donald Trump” or “Not Hillary”. Signed, A-hole

  114. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t know anything about Mormons and flowers, but George Romney left a fresh flower every morning for his wife until the day he died.”

    -Maybe she didn’t wear deodorant.

  115. jason says:

    In 2016, the staunchly conservative Deseret News endorsed “Not Donald Trump” for President.”

    Voters must have read “Not Hillary Clinton” since she got a whopping 27%.

    But, it was an improvement for the Dems, Obama got like 24%.

  116. jason says:

    -Maybe she didn’t wear deodorant.

    Not the day she died, the day he died.

  117. CG says:

    So none of the bombs sent to liberals went off today and despite serious injuries, none of the Republican Members of Congress were killed by a gunman when they could have easily been.

    Maybe political extremists on both sides suck at terrorism. Maybe we have been lucky. Maybe G-d had other plans for the innocent.

  118. Mr.Vito says:

    So the stench killed him?

  119. jason says:

    Their print circulation is only 31k?

    Wow, not long for this world.

  120. CG says:

    The feeling behind the editorial clearly had a lot of support when Trump’s numbers in the state in 2016 are compared to Romney or to that of previous GOP nominees.

  121. jason says:

    Maybe political extremists on both sides suck at terrorism.”

    Sounds like Corey already knows who sent the bombs to the liberals.

    Can you share it with us?

  122. CG says:

    It was a very touching and sad story that Lenore Romney knew something had happened to her husband and found him dead when there was not a flower waiting for her.

    But NYC had to go joke around and be all..

  123. CG says:

    I am sure law enforcement will figure it out.

    Those who are insisting, with zero evidence, that they know for certain it’s all a “hoax” look like fools.

  124. CG says:

    I gave three “maybes” in one paragraph. I don’t claim to know the certainty of any of the three.

  125. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The Salt Lake City Tribune endorsed Obama over Romney, and in the past was always very critical of Romney. It has always been viewed as anti-Mormon, and was very negative in its tone. It is an irony, because there actually was and still is, a joint operating agreement between the Salt Lake City Tribune and the Deseret News. They used to share the same the same printing press in the same building, each newspaper occupied a wing of the building. When I was a college student, used to work there; it was jointly known as the Newspaper Agency Corporation. The staff of both newspapers were very friendly to each other, despite working for papers with different viewpoints.

  126. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    113. “In 2016, the staunchly conservative Deseret News endorsed “Not Donald Trump” for President.”
    -And the next day, there was a letter from a reader which stated “There is no lever which says “Not Donald Trump” or “Not Hillary”.”

    Actually there was a lever, it was for Evan McMullin, and it appeared for a brief period of time that he would win Utah in 2016. However, the more people saw of him the less they liked him, and crucially Romney and other prominent Utahns failed to endorse him. So Trump ended up carrying Utah. Trump will win Utah easily in 2020.

  127. CG says:

    “Actually there was a lever, it was for Evan McMullin, and it appeared for a brief period of time that he would win Utah in 2016.”

    Shh…lisab CANNOT be told this!

  128. jason says:

    Those who are insisting, with zero evidence,”

    Like you are insisting that “the other side” is incompetent at terrorism, with zero evidence?

  129. CG says:

    I think it’s too early to say what will happen in Utah in 2020 when we do not know who they candidates will be, how many, etc.

  130. jason says:

    and it appeared for a brief period of time that he would win Utah in 2016.”

    Only gullible morons thought that, and I pointed it out at the time that McMullin was going nowhere in Utah.

  131. jason says:

    It’s not too early at all.

    If Trump wins, he will win Utah big.

    Taking bets right now if anyone disagrees.

  132. CG says:

    Did I “insist” or did I say “maybe” in concert with other “maybes.”

    We know the guy who tried to kill the Republican Members of Congress was a bad shot. Maybe this was a bad bomber. Let’s wait for the facts. I know how very much you want this to be a “hoax” cooked up by the Obamas and the Clintons themselves.

  133. jason says:

    Wins the nomination that should read.

  134. jason says:

    Let’s wait for the facts”

    Except you didn’t wait, did you, you lying fraud.

    “Maybe political extremists on both sides suck at terrorism.”

    You already decided what “side” did it with zero evidence.

  135. CG says:

    Since when is a “maybe” the same as a “decision.”

    Your really suck at this blogging stuff jason. No maybes about that.

  136. CG says:

    I will rely on law enforcement to get to the bottom of this entire story but I would be fairly certain that nobody named Trump, Clinton, or Obama was involved in the planning or execution of this.

  137. jason says:

    So lying fraud, it’s never too early to make a bet.

    I say Trump wins Utah in 2020 if he is the nominee. You can have any other candidate on the ballot.

    $1000 even steven.

    Deal?

  138. CG says:

    Maybe its a sucky, incompetent left-wing terrorist in both instances. Again, another “maybe.”

    jason seems offended that a right-wing terrorist might fail at their mission.

    Let’s hope all would be terrorists fail or are thwarted. It shouldn’t be a partisan matter.

  139. jason says:

    Since when is a “maybe” the same as a “decision.”

    Nah, nah, no moving of the goalposts now.

    You really are a pathological liar.

    Your “maybe” didn’t refer to what side did it, it referred to maybe suck at terrorism.

  140. jason says:

    “jason seems offended that a right-wing terrorist might fail at their mission. ”

    No, I am offended on the fact you decided it was a right wing terrorist without having any evidence or facts.

  141. CG says:

    Keep digging a hole jason.

    I was trying to make a point that concluded in the possibility of their being a powerful and loving Almighty Being who has prevented tragedy but you just have to look for an opportunity to prove yourself for what you any chance you can get.

  142. jason says:

    But one thing I will admit, IF it was a right wing terrorist he or she IS incredibly stupid and incompetent.

  143. CG says:

    One can “theorize” and again, a theory is far different from an insistence or statement of facts, that bombs sent to a group of people who have a political ideology in common are more likely to come from someone with a different ideology than the same ideology. We can wait for facts, but one can theorize that and certainly not impugn everyone else of one ideology who are rightly horrified at any such act of violence.

  144. jason says:

    I was trying to make a point”

    Your point was the same as the MSM.

    It has to be rightwing terrorist that was goaded on by Trump.

    That was your point, without any evidence or facts.

    That is why you are a lying fraud.

    You are the one who came here to try to score political points against Trump and got called on it.

  145. CG says:

    You are the one who seems to feel guilty about Trump and this story.

    I said I would wager that Trump had absolutely nothing to do with this. I am practically certain. But I am also practically certain that Obama and Clinton and CNN and whomever else also had nothing to do with this and did not ask for it.

    It’s amazing that anybody could find a reason to get mad at the paragraph I wrote that included three “maybes” unless they were either a staunch defender of the Congressional baseball shooter or a radical atheist who gets upset that someone might believe that G-d had a hand in protecting innocent people in many circumstances.

  146. CG says:

    Now, jason, since I have offered nothing but “maybes” in regards to what transpired today, until and unless there is proof of your theory of this being some grand left-wing conspiracy designed to hurt Republicans, GFY.

  147. jason says:

    We can wait for facts”

    Yes we should, but you didn’t.

    Why, because your hatred of Trump is such that you can’t wait to try to score some cheap political point against him.

  148. CG says:

    You have an odd understanding of what the word “maybe” is, and again, a right-wing terrorist, if that’s what it is, is not someone connected to Trump. Trump does enough bad things on his own.

    I thought your continued misreading of the printed Quincy Jones tidbit was a one-off deal but now I am not so sure.

  149. jason says:

    Now, jason, since I have offered nothing but “maybes”

    You can’t stop lying.

    Whenever you get caught lying, you start these convoluted posts to try to get out of it.

    No free lunch here.

    And I have no left wing conspiracy theory at all, but I am not going to blame any “side” until we know more facts.

  150. jason says:

    You have an odd understanding of what the word “maybe” is,

    Nah, I understand it perfectly.

    You said maybe both sides suck at terrorism, not maybe that there are two sides.

    You know it, I know it, anybody who reads your sentence knows it.

  151. CG says:

    How in the world is the possibility of a maybe so offensive to you? You completely skip over the other “maybe” options I wrote directly after it, which would contradict your nefarious and ridiculous attempt to read some alternative meaning into the first maybe.

    Whatever you ate for lunch today did some damage on you. I hope your blood pressure is ok.

  152. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Here is the latest poll regarding Trump’s popularity in Utah. I believe Trump will carry Utah by a wide margin, but a significant amount of voters will be voting for the “lesser of two evils.” They don’t want a liberal democrat as president. Utah is still only lukewarm towards Trump.
    https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/17820-still-not-trump-country-a-majority-of-utahns-disapprove-of-president-trump-s-job-performance

  153. CG says:

    You are the only person who has brought up anything regarding that post I wrote. There is no reason for anyone else to even respond to it. I said nothing remotely controversial in it.

    Unless someone is a radical atheist.

  154. CG says:

    I think it is possible a credible center-right third party candidacy with national support could win Utah in 2020, but we are a long way off from 2020.

    Romney would win it easily in a three-way race, but unlike Robbie’s suggestion, I don’t think Romney is likely to run for President in 2020.

  155. EML says:

    Leftists love making themselves victims. There are many recent cases of leftists doing things to make it look like right wing bigots are going after minorities. It would not surprise me in the least if this is a leftist hoax.

    I highly doubt that the “bombs” are even functional, based on the picture of the one we have seen. It’s a caricature of a bomb: oversized clock, wires running everywhere that don’t do anything. It was not sent through the mail, but had stamps and a return address on it. Why would you put Wasserman Schultz as the return address on something that didn’t go through the mail and you expected to be blown to smithereens? Because you knew it didn’t work. Who would make a fake bomb that they know wouldn’t hurt a Democrat but would make Republicans look bad? Hmmm.

    But I agree, let’s wait for the FBI to nab the suspect. Dollars to donuts it’s a lefty.

  156. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    154. Romney and Trump get along a lot better than people realize. They both are businessmen, and respect each other, although they disagree often and are very different types of people. I do not see Romney running for president unless Trump declines to run. Also believe that Romney will champion many of Trump’s policy initiatives in the Senate.

  157. CG says:

    Here’s what I believe.

    The federal law enforcement officials looking into these events today, who are a part of the Donald Trump federal government, who of course today has denounced these attempted attacks and vowed that justice will be delivered are going to be operating under the theory that a would be terrorist was targeting particular liberals for political reasons. If there is some evidence of this being a “false flag” operation or some sort of “inside job”, they will of course uncover that as well.

    But that’s probably not where their heads are now in terms of motive. They are professionals who know what they are doing. If it was a right-wing terrorist, that person should be getting any sort of free pass because the MSM will critique Trump on other things he said.

  158. Bitterlaw says:

    I heard on the radio some speculation that this could be a false flag operation by leftists to blame Republicans and/or Trump. I say no. If the first thing after a false flag operation is speculation that it is a false flag operation, the perpetrator was too stupid to carry out a false flag operation.

  159. jason says:

    I think it is possible a credible center-right third party candidacy with national support could win Utah in 2020, but we are a long way off from 2020.”

    Well if its plausible let’s bet then.

    I will even stipulate that the bet is only valid IF there is a third party candidate. More than fair.

  160. ReadyFirst says:

    Desantis 52-44 in Pasco County. Between Scott and Desantis in FL, I feel confident in Scott’s victory. Desantis IMO has a tougher road to hoe, but will pull it out. If Desantis wins bellwether counties like Pasco, per this poll, then all the FL hype was just that, hype, and both Scott and Desantis will be fine.
    http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_PAS_County_October22_KGV4.pdf

  161. CG says:

    I don’t think Mitt Romney respects Donald Trump personally one iota. He respects the country and the office and he will be polite and courteous to him in any official dealings.

    Perhaps Trump respects Romney personally and wants to be more like him, deep down. I read an account of how he likes the fact that Mormons do not drink.

  162. DW says:

    Two votes so far in Siena poll of NY_27, one for each candidate, and the Republican trails 49/51

  163. CG says:

    Everytime a brick gets thrown into a campaign office, (on either side or in primary campaigns), everyone always says it was an inside job. Sometimes it is. Often it isn’t. It has happened a lot historically in Chicago.

  164. DW says:

    The guy who shot up the Republican baseball practice certainly wasn’t a false flag operation.

  165. CG says:

    164. Yeah, but on left-wing blogs, their versions of jason were claiming it was right away.

  166. EML says:

    But we see the big difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans condemn political violence. Democrats encourage it.

  167. jason says:

    How in the world is the possibility of a maybe so offensive to you?”

    There was no maybe there.

    You categorically blamed this attack on the “other side”.

    The “maybe” referred to the incompetence of the terrorists.

    Here it is again. No amount of lying will change it.

    “Maybe political extremists on both sides suck at terrorism.”

    Where in hell is the “maybe” about it being “both sides”?

  168. EML says:

    Lefties are prone to violence. Lefties are prone to committing acts to make themselves look like victims.

  169. janz says:

    I’m a cynic regarding who may be behind the “bomb” headlines today.

    If these bombs prove to be “real,” and made with the intent of blowing someone up, then my cynicism will have been unwarranted.

    However, if they prove to be more like “crank” devices — unable to have been easily or successfully detonated — then I think the left wing might be behind them, giving the dems an “event” to accuse the right of craziness (because they were all mailed to dems), and buffering their own party from repeated incidents of violence exercised by antifa and others that has created increasing concerns among people in voting for a party of lunatics.

  170. CG says:

    I shouldn’t have to specify the 2000 possible maybes when I offered three and the other two that you leave out would contradict the one you want to focus on.

    I said later on that maybe it is a sucky left-wing terrorist on both sides.

    Maybe they guy who just got arrested for threatening to kill Jeff Flake because he is always “interrupting the President” was a leftist too.

    You are becoming close to insane jason.

    But have a good night.

  171. jason says:

    eir versions of jason were claiming it was right away.”

    LOL, I am claiming nothing. I don’t know who did it, not claiming I know who did it.

    You are doing here what the left wing sites did.

    You have no facts or evidence but you already decided who did it.

  172. CG says:

    Only in your head do you see the word “maybe” and declare that is the same thing as an “insistence” and only in your head, do you read a paragraph about Quincy Jones, mis-understand the comma placement, and claimed for hours that Quincy Jones was alleging that 4 year old Michael Jackson assassinated JFK in 1963.

  173. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    115. “staunchly conservative Deseret News”

    Deseret News is actually somewhat moderate, and very cautious in its tone. One reason is the newspaper is considered the voice of the Mormon Church. When it does take a strong stand on an issue, it carries an incredible amount of weight in Utah.

  174. EML says:

    And as we have seen time and again, the election of Donald Trump has made people go absolutely crazy (present company included).

  175. Phil says:

    We’re these devices armed or not? I can’t seem to get an answer on this one.

  176. Mr.Vito says:

    I think it was the Saudis. They are just finishing off the hit list Jared Kushner gave them.

  177. dblaikie says:

    Of course I will wait for the investigation to finish. But I do believe this bomb stuff, this close to the election has a bad smell about it. It sure gives the media another chance to blame Trump for all ills of the world.

  178. jason says:

    Corey is a pathological liar who always has somewhere to go when caught lying.

    Also he conveniently pretends he didn’t see the bet offer

    I will keep posting this and maybe someone can show me where Corey meant anything else than “both sides suck at terrorism”.

    “Maybe political extremists on both sides suck at terrorism.”

  179. jason says:

    So except for Corey, who has already decided “maybe both sides suck at terrorism” the rest of us have an open mind and would like to see what the investigation uncovers.

  180. Phil says:

    Jason, help me here. Is this Corey the Canadian Marxist or the Corey who usually shows up to tag in with Robbie?

  181. Todd McCain says:

    NRSC:

    Morrissey +2 over Manchin

  182. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    161, “I read an account of how he (Trump) likes the fact that Mormons do not drink.”

    My favor Utah craft beer is named Polygamy Porter — its motto is “Why have just one.”

  183. jason says:

    Two things do seem clear to me.

    If it was some type of right wing zealot, he or she is tremendously stupid, this will only hurt the Republican cause.

    If it was a left wing zealot trying to interfere with the election, he or she is tremendously stupid, this will backfire in a big way.

    It its just a non-partisan nutcase, maybe smart enough to get a lot of attention.

  184. jason says:

    No, this is the Jebot still seeing stuck in the 2016 primaries, same as Amoral Scumbag.

    The Kanadian Kommunist left on election night 2016 and never came back.

    His last comment was:

    “Nervous”

  185. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe it was Eric D0ndero. Pooping on Democrsts’ lawns did not make a big enough splash for him.

  186. NYCmike says:

    “Pooping on Democrsts’ lawns did not make a big enough splash for him.”

    D I – 2 farts and a splash!

  187. Phil says:

    For those who still don’t think Nate Silver is a hack. He gives Heidi in ND the exact same chance at winning as Braun in Indiana – both at 21%.

    Huh?

  188. jason says:

    The bomb had an ISIS flag on it?

  189. EML says:

    The Kanadian Kommunist left on election night 2016 and never came back.

    His last comment was:

    “Nervous”
    ==========================
    The Wayback Machine says…FALSE.
    This was his second to last comment.

    His actual last comment was much, much better:

    I can’t seem to smoke enough weed to make this election go away

  190. jason says:

    You have the comment? I will take your word for it, I only remember “nervous”

  191. jason says:

    Corey and CNN have exactly the same talking points.

    Anyone surprised?

    They are saying the “commonality of the recipients” makes it obvious it was the right wing. Exactly what Corey said, that the ideology of the recipients has to mean someone of a different ideology is the bomber.

    Peas in a pod.

  192. EML says:

    It’s obvious it’s the right wing.

    Just like when the black guy was burning down black churches.
    Just like when the black guy was writing KKK messages around town in Michigan.
    Just like when the Jewish kids when drawing swastikas at their college.

    It’s always obvious it’s the right wing.

  193. Cash Cow TM says:

    Hey guys, need some help.

    Is it the RED wire I snip first, or the BLACK one?

  194. Gelt Goose says:

    Honk!!!

  195. Mr.Vito says:

    Ralston has a poll up on his blog that says Heller is losing Latinos by 50. This is the same firm that networks widely used on Election Day coverage to claim Trump would win 18% of the Latino vote in 2016.

  196. EML says:

    Have MD, Author, or Michael showed up since Trump was elected?

  197. Tina says:

    I do not ever remember seeing bombs photographed like that.

    Reason being, copy cats.

    Yet the nbc worker takes a picture.

    Bombs with wires dangling.

  198. jason says:

    No, no, and yes.

  199. Diamond Jim says:

    CC

  200. jason says:

    PA Dem candidate for Congress Scott Wallace caught on tape saying dogs are smarter than police officers.

  201. Wes says:

    EML, MD is officially a moonbat and departed HHR.

    I’ve heard the same about Author.

    Michael has made sporadic appearances.

  202. Phil says:

    So, Wes. Do you agree with Silver that both Heitcamp and Braun have the same 21% chance to win on election day?

    Having trouble wrapping my arms around that one.

  203. jaichind says:

    RCP average Direction of Country Right Track/Wrong Track

    10/24/2010 32.4/61.8
    10/24/2012 39.4/55.2
    10/24/2014 27.5/65.8
    10/24/2016 28.6/64.0
    10/24/2018 40.2/54.0

    2018 looks a lot more like 2012 than 2010 or 2014 or 2016 when the incumbent party got hammered.

  204. Wes says:

    No, Phil. Heitkamp is done. More and more I’m thinking Donnelly joins her and McCaskill (and most likely Nelson) in forced retirement.

  205. Tina says:

    nversation ·
    Larry Schweikart Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    14m
    “The Dentist” now projecting a GOP 57k gain over 2016 when Trump lost by 27k. He is calling it a NV “landslide.”
    View details ·

  206. Tina says:

    chweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    Replying to @Cowboys_jlw @MichaelENewton1
    Follow
    Yes. He is saying the early voting + absentees by Democrats will leave them with about an 8,000 lead—when in the past it was massive. Rs tend to win election day. The Ds simply won’t have anywhere near enough cushion.
    4:27 PM – 24 Oct 2018

  207. jason says:

    I think Rs MO, ND and IN for sure.

    NV and FL are 50/50, point a gun at my head I say we win at least one of them

    I think NJ is 10%.

    I am bummed about WV, that should be a slam dunk.

  208. jason says:

    WHo is Author supporting for the senate and governor of FL. Dems?

  209. Wes says:

    If West Virginians had brains Manchin would be doomed, Jason. As it stands the voters there are too stupid to vote against a DNC lapdog (Tennant in 2014 excepted).

  210. Wes says:

    Remember, in the 2010 exits, West Virginians said they were casting their ballots against Obama. This meant they voted for his pet poodle, Joe Manchin.

    How that made any sense outside Wackyland I have no freaking idea.

  211. Phil says:

    Wes, your feeling on Arizona? Just looked and Silver has the loon winning by two points – no different than what he has had for the last three weeks. I really have had a good feeling about McSally coming on stronger in recent weeks.

  212. Tina says:

    usley
    @adamhousley
    Follow
    Federal agents say they are working on the theory that it’s one group, or one person. Also…the fact that none of them detonated is more significant than people may realize. I am told that’s a “huge clue”.
    10:21 AM – 24 Oct 2018

    Yes, a huge clue.

  213. mnw says:

    There are multiple stories out there that Heitkamp basically quit campaigning, since right after the “sex assault disclosure” debacle. She is keeping to her schedule ONLY for events that she committed to attending a long time ago, & not making any other appearances.

    So… Silver…. “Heitcamp has a 25% chance of winning”…. because… of course!

  214. EML says:

    WHo is Author supporting for the senate and governor of FL. Dems?
    ======================
    Nelson and Gillum
    https://mobile.twitter.com/authorlmendez?lang=en

  215. Tina says:

    And the “bombs” being sent via courier, a big clue too.

  216. Wes says:

    Maybe Walt can explain why the average voter in WV has an IQ of -970,000. I can not.

  217. Wes says:

    Heidi Heitkamp=the Al D’Amato of 2018.

  218. Phil says:

    Seriously, mnw, Silver actually just has her losing by four points.

  219. Tina says:

    Big Shocker.

    Arthur supporting a drat.

  220. mnw says:

    I voted today. This is the third time I’ve voted against McCaskill in a general election for Senate. Pray God three’s a charm.

  221. Wes says:

    I’m thinking Cramer blanches* Heitkamp.

    * a reference to former Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who lost so badly in 2010 the networks called her race the second polls closed

  222. Wes says:

    Hawley has had a small but consistent lead this month, Mnw. I think he upends her by 3-5%.

  223. Phil says:

    Man, I really expected Scott to be doing better in Florida. He’s a really good candidate and he was polling so well in the middle of the summer.

  224. Phil says:

    Wes, thoughts on Arizona.

  225. Wes says:

    Phil, according to RRH, Scott is ahead among those who’ve already voted and is strongest among those most engaged in the process while Nelson does best among those least likely to vote.

    Scott probably gets a boost out of the hurricane response too.

    Let’s not forget Scott and Nelson have split evenly the last six polls.

    No need for alarm.

  226. mnw says:

    Wes 223

    I agree. Maybe a little less. If it were semi-hopeless, the DEMs wouldn’t still be saturating the airwaves with her ads.

    On the eve of a trial, I always asked myself, “Would you rather have YOUR problems, or your adversary’s problems?”

    Tonight I’d definitely prefer to have Hawley’s problems, not McCaskill’s. (He isn’t a natural as a politician, btw.)

  227. Wes says:

    I think McSally wins by about 51-46, Phil. Sinema has been stuck at her normal level of support while McSally has been gaining.

  228. mnw says:

    Schweikart, commenting tonight on TN early voting:

    “Red wave, baby!”

  229. Tgca says:

    98 Jadon

    WRONG! I’m generally not an oat eater. I’m more of a rice or quinoa guy. My veggie burgers are generally fresh veggies and pea protein. Not a big fan of tofu burgers either. So you’re more likely to ingest harmful chemicals in your diet than me. So kindly GFY!

    FYI. Did you see the study released in the last week that states eating organic MAY prevent cancer? It’s only one recent study and done by the French so take it for what it’s worth.

    My point is I eat mostly organic or fresh farm simply because I think the quality and taste is better, and generally fresher because it’s more recently harvested.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/10/23/eating-organic-food-may-prevent-cancer-french-study-suggests/1737791002/

  230. mnw says:

    Flagler County, FL EV is exceeding the 2016 Presidential election EV, thus far. Not exceeding 2014… EXCEEDING 2016.

    Ponder that.

  231. Mr.Vito says:

    You guys don’t seem to understand like I do. Just look at the Siena poll.

    Scott is losing everything from Ft Myers to Bradenton. He’s losing 75-25 in North Central and North East Florida. He’s losing the Keys by 100%.

    Oh, and he’s losing women by 5%, but men by 20%.

    You mean you aren’t buying it?

  232. mnw says:

    Tg

    I find myself back at the Food Channel once again!

  233. EML says:

    I’m generally not an oat eater. I’m more of a rice or quinoa guy.
    =====================
    Gayest post of the day.
    Again.

  234. dblaikie says:

    Once again the media and their minions (Democrats) have gone down the over reach road! Once again this will back fire on them. In fact the way they driveling I am beginning to think the impossible — this whole thing is a ruse. In an earlier post I said something smells about this whole. Now that smell has turned into a rotten filthy stench.

  235. EML says:

    I’m in a CSA and get most of my veggies straight from the farm. If you’re not doing at least that much, then you’re doing it wrong. I’m on a first name basis with people who grow my veggies as well as the animals I’m going to eat later. Chris the Cow tells me his sirloin is coming in very nicely.

  236. Barry says:

    Heidi should loose but she is still airing plenty of ads here in ND. Cramer is also airing plenty of ads as well. Most of the time a Heidi ad is immediately followed by a Cramer ad on tv

  237. jason says:

    “pea protein”

    Sounds delicious.

  238. Tgca says:

    132 CG

    Bad shot? Really? I hope you’re joking. Scalise suffered a serious life-threatening wound. If the armed Capitol police had not arrived when they did, there probably would have been more deaths because the Reps were cornered in the enclosed field with nowhere to escape by a mad shooter.

  239. Tgca says:

    Yes. Pea protein and not pee protein.

  240. jason says:

    “Organic” is a huge scam.

    I buy organic milk and eggs where I see a marginal benefit.

    Nothing else.

  241. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Was in the Las Vegas area the last couple of days. There were a lot of Laxalt television adds, including attacks on Sisolak. Saw a couple of Heller billboards, but not much more except adds for County Commissioner candidates. Assume the Democrats focus on union get-out-the-vote campaigns.

  242. Mr.Vito says:

    Meanwhile the NYT published Trump assassination porn today…

    good timing.

  243. Barry says:

    Heitkamp campaigned today with another looser Chuck Hagel

  244. Hugh says:

    Ralston no longer cheerleading like after the first two days. It’s fun to watch.

  245. jason says:

    “Bad shot? Really?”

    Truly despicable. He wants to make a moral comparison between a shooting attack on dozens of people on a baseball field, several who were seriously injured and many who were pretty miraculously saved with this amateurish sending of bombs that don’t detonate, nobody hurt, and where we don’t even know who made them.

    That is his moral equivalency of “both sides”. Sickening.

  246. jason says:

    Yes. Pea protein and not pee protein.”

    I doubt they taste different.

  247. mnw says:

    I just donated to a new PAC called:

    StopSpeakerPelosi.com

    …founded by an IN GOP Congressman.

    They split all donations received 23 ways, among the 23 GOP House candidates who need it the most. I like the concept.

  248. Phil says:

    Ah, Chuck Hagel. There’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time. Hagel, the guy Jeff Flake modeled himself after.

    I guess Heidi though Hagel would help with crossover Republicans. Hey, Heidi, There is a reason Hagel didn’t run again. Republicans couldn’t stand any more of his his sanctimonious MSM bootlicking, holier than thou persona any longer.

    She really is desperate.

  249. Tina says:

    The Jebot is more unhinged.

    If the bombs were good or bad, makes no difference, it is an act of terrorism, likely domestic.

    However, strange that an nbc takes a picture of the bomb.

    Cnn claims it was mailed, then sent via courier.

  250. mnw says:

    245

    Chuck Hagel, eh?

    That should help her! /s

  251. EML says:

    Ralston not on the ledge like 2014, but he knows the numbers are not good. He’s kind of drawn a line in the sand that Dems need to be ahead 35K in Clark County to have a chance. He is banking on a big second week to deliver. If there is no surge next week, Demsnare sunk.

  252. Barry says:

    Heidi is trying to get Hagel to help her with the veterans vote. This vet is not voting for her!

  253. Florida Guy says:

    ReadyFirst,

    It’s hard for Republicans to LOSE Pasco County (New Port Richey, Wesley Chapel, etc.), one of the hottest new GOP counties in Central Florida. It usually gives a good Republican a net margin of 50,000.

    DeSantis has the base but he needs indies and weak Repubs in Orlando and Jacksonville area and, of course, he needs to win a good share in South Florida.

    RE:

    Desantis 52-44 in Pasco County. Between Scott and Desantis in FL, I feel confident in Scott’s victory. Desantis IMO has a tougher road to hoe, but will pull it out. If Desantis wins bellwether counties like Pasco, per this poll, then all the FL hype was just that, hype, and both Scott and Desantis will be fine.

    http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_PAS_County_October22_KGV4.pdf

  254. Phil says:

    BTW, Hagel specializes in endorsing Democrats for the senate. I’t what he does. endorsed Sestak in Pa over Toomey. Endorsed Bob Kerrey to be his successor in Nebraska.

  255. Tgca says:

    248 Jadon

    Well, why don’t you personally test your hypothesis and let us know your conclusion. Ok? Grassy a$$ mi amigo.

  256. scooterboy says:

    GOP have to be happy with some of these early vote totals we’re seeing.

    McCaskill all over the airwaves attacking Hawley mercilessly….while at the same time promoting herself as one of the most bipartisan Dems in the senate.

    I hope she goes down big time.

  257. mnw says:

    Trump’s rally in WI is in an odd kind of venue. Kind of an amphitheater open at one end, out at the airport. At least by the look of it.

    So, it looks chilly bordering on COLD, & the crowd isn’t quite as jazzed as we have come to expect. Trump seems to have picked up on that, & he’s responded by making it a bit more low key. My impression.

  258. Tina says:

    Josh Caplan
    @joshdcaplan
    Follow
    BREAKING: A law enforcement official says tests have determined that a powder found inside an envelope delivered to CNN along with a pipe bomb was harmless – AP
    5:17 PM – 24 Oct 2018

  259. mnw says:

    258 scooter

    Working on it.

  260. jason says:

    248 Jadon

    Well, why don’t you personally test your hypothesis and let us know your conclusion. Ok? Grassy a$$ mi amigo.”

    No thanks.

    I like real protein, not pea protein. Found in steaks, chops, ribs…that kind of thing.

  261. jason says:

    Hey scooter you A-hole how are you?

  262. jason says:

    Off and on I ask about you, Bitter says you are alive and well on FB.

  263. Scooby77 says:

    Who the hell is A-hole?

  264. Cash Cow TM says:

    Wes,

    Why do a significant chunk of WV voters vote for Manchin despite disagreeing with how he votes on various bits of legislation…

    Darned if I know fully…

    WV is a small (population) state and politics is personal. Some people vote for people because they find them personable and likeable, even if they disagree with how the candidate stands on issues X, Y or Z. I think that explains some of it.

    WV people are not as philosophically driven as many people in other states.

    I know Walt got a lot of votes from conservative and moderate Ds who put issues ahead of party registration. He even got some votes from Ds who were way more liberal on issues X, Y and Z than Walt (who never hid his conservative views on the campaign trail). They knew Walt as a PERSON and felt comfortable with him doing the right thing.
    ______________
    I saw a thing on TV where they were interviewing WV voters and asking them about Manchin v. Morrisey and about 1/2 of the people were saying bad things about Manchin and his positions of various things. But at the end, the commentator asked them to raise their hands if they were voting for Morrisey or raise if voting for Manchin about 2/3 raised their hands for voting for Manchin. The commentator asked those who spoke bad about Manchin why they raised their hand to indicate they were still going to vote for Manchin, and they said thinks like “Joe has a longer history of being involved in WV”, :Joe is more personable and likeable”, etc.

    That’s all I got.

  265. Tina says:

    The bomb stickers

    Say get ear done

    Trump backwards.

    Hoax, but still terrorism.

  266. mnw says:

    Cow

    Well… that’s not bad.

    My congressman used to be Ike Skelton (D-MO), & he had a similar relationship to his conservative constituents. The GOP finally got him, but he had a good, long run. A lot of it was his superior constituent service & his ability to keep a military base alive.

  267. Scooby77 says:

    Cash,

    Manchin needs to switch parties and get it over with.

  268. scooterboy says:

    I’m doing well. Lost my mother last December after a long battle with cancer. Helping coach my daughters select softball team, so I’ve been rather busy. I kinda stepped away from politics for awhile. Thought I’d drop by and see how my fellow A-holes were holding up.

  269. Florida Guy says:

    The NYT-Siena poll is almost done and Nelson is up 11. 241 samples. But look at the map — looks like most of the respondents are in three counties in South Florida.

  270. mnw says:

    Are they only doing a sample of 300? I thought it was 500.

  271. jason says:

    Sorry about your mom. That’s tough, I lost my mom after an 8 years battle with cancer so I know what it’s like. But welcome back, we are always here.

  272. Hugh says:

    272. Miami is dem but it’s not all blue with a red dot. Miami has heavy rep pockets. Broward is the most democratic county. I say ignore the polls. Instead focus on the voting intensity that is occurring. In Scotts prior two elections he was fairly unpopular. He is more popular today. The one thing that is hard to factor in is the red tide. Not his fault it’s fed govt policy that caused it but who knows that. I like how early voting is going. I think Scott wins. I’m worried about DeSantis.

  273. NYCmike says:

    Sorry about your Mom, scooter. Hope you have dealt with your grief in a positive way.

    By the way, how is the “liberal Democrat” President Trump doing in office?

  274. mnw says:

    Hugh

    I really like that new group I referenced in 249 above. GOP should have started that months ago.

    I quit giving to the GOP national party PACs years ago– because they were intervening in GOP primaries, & giving disproportionately to safe incumbents also.

  275. scooterboy says:

    Jason….do you know any other good lawyers?

    Bitter has failed miserably attempting to represent me during this sexual harrassment suit.
    I fear Kim is going to take me to the cleaners.
    I should have never asked for that second cup of hot chocolate. It’s beyond me that I’m having to defend myself just because I told her I wanted “more”. It’s not my fault that she misinterpreted what I was asking. I would have thought that Bitter would have no problem mounting a competent defense. Well…I was sorely mistaken.

  276. mnw says:

    Schweikart sure (hearts) what he’s seeing in NV.

  277. Cash Cow TM says:

    Scooter,
    My condolences to you about your mom…

    Glad to see you here again and that you seem to be living a full life.

  278. Cash Cow TM says:

    Scooby77,

    Manchin will never switch parties.

  279. Robbie says:

    Cash Cow TM says:
    October 24, 2018 at 10:24 pm
    Scooby77,

    Manchin will never switch parties.

    – I wondered whether he might, but apparently he hates Mitch McConnell with the heat of a 1000 suns.

  280. jason says:

    I guess Bitter is too specialized in workers comp, Scooter. And he is busy going to Mass while not supporting the Communist Pope.

    You could try to petition SCOTUS directly and maybe you will luck out and get Kavanaugh, he will certainly be sympathetic to your cause.

    And of course you can use me as character reference I will say I can’t think of a more honest A-hole.

  281. Robbie says:

    The best evidence McCaskill is going to lose in Missouri is the fact she’s running an ad suggesting you don’t have to like her to think she’s doing a good job.

  282. Mr.Vito says:

    Washoe basically tied today.

  283. Robbie says:

    From my perch in Kentucky, I’ve been able to see a lot of the TV advertising that is broadcast into Southern Indiana. About three weeks ago, Mike Braun hit Donnelly with an outsourcing charge. Ever since, Donnelly has been trying to refute that charge in his TV ads. That’s a clear sign to me the ads are working and probably is the best confirmation of the poll yesterday showing Braun ahead by a few.

  284. Tina says:

    Fake new.

    Fake bombs.

    Horseface.

  285. Mr.Vito says:

    Republicans won Washoe EV+VBM by 4 votes.

  286. Tina says:

    Follow by SMS
    Larry Schweikart Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    1m
    1) 2016 full week Clark 40,000 margin over Rs 40,000 2) 2018 full week Clark projected margin 16,000 3) 2016 Washoe 2,500 4) 2018 Washoe projected 1,000 5) Total NV 27,200 6) Total projected 4,000

  287. Robbie says:

    The Florida Senate race has been a real surprise to me. I never saw Scott as a great candidate who was destined to win, but Nelson had all the appearances of a candidate who looked like he had passed his sell by date. And then to see Nelson pick up some steam after the hurricane really confounded my expectations.

  288. mnw says:

    “Looks like Hillary may win Missouri too!”

  289. Scooby77 says:

    Robbie, that race has vexed me from the start. Surely a seat we can’t afford to lose, and really shouldn’t. It would be like us having a seat in NY or CA.

  290. mnw says:

    Scooby

    PLEASE DON’T FEED THAT IDIOT TROLL!

  291. Robbie says:

    Right now, it’s possible Republicans could hold AZ and NV while picking up ND, MO, and IN. To finish this cycle with 54 Senate seats would be a real coup, but also the luck of the draw considering where the Senate races are. I’d like to think MT and FL are still possible, but they seem just a bit out of reach at this point.

    Getting to 54 seats would also probably ensure Republicans hold onto the Senate after 2020. Alabama should be a pickup and the only seats that look possibly vulnerable are CO, McCain’s seat, and maybe (I stress maybe) Perdue.

  292. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 24, 2018 at 10:35 pm
    Scooby

    PLEASE DON’T FEED THAT IDIOT TROLL!

    – The moron who thinks Newt Gingrich has something useful to say has some thoughts.

    When you disappeared for all of those years from this forum, what did you do? Just fantasize about populism after reading Steve Bannon articles?

  293. lisab says:

    Voters must have read “Not Hillary Clinton” since she got a whopping 27%.

    But, it was an improvement for the Dems, Obama got like 24%.
    —————————-

    that is why corey listed utah as a tossup

  294. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 24, 2018 at 10:32 pm
    “Looks like Hillary may win Missouri too!”

    – “Newt Gingrich had something interesting to say”.

  295. Tina says:

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii
    27m
    SNICKER – NBC is now reporting with certainty that the sticker on the device received by CNN is a “Larry the Cable Guy”-themed parody of an ISIS flag logo.
    View details ·

    I need more nbc photos of Muh bomb. After all, why would anybody take Muh bomb photos. You would think to evacuate and call in the bong squad, and the Fib, of the Fib is not too busy wire tapping Trump Tower.

    Yah think?

  296. Tina says:

    Bomb Squad*

    Let me see, why would you have an alar, clock in front of Muh bomb and two little wires sticking out of Muh bomb?

    With more Muh bomb pics, I can tell you that it is still a Hoax.

  297. Robbie says:

    Scooby77 says:
    October 24, 2018 at 10:33 pm
    Robbie, that race has vexed me from the start. Surely a seat we can’t afford to lose, and really shouldn’t. It would be like us having a seat in NY or CA.

    – If you’re referring to FL, I think nominating a total bum for governor has really hurt Scott. Just as the TX and TN governor races should help Cruz and Blackburn, I think DeSantis, a clown, is really hurting Scott.

  298. scooterboy says:

    Arizona state troopers association withdrew it’s endorsement of Krysten Sinema after members objected.

  299. Tina says:

    I am sure too that the Delivery boy of Muh Bomb is widely caught on video.

    It is almost like Muh bomb came from central casting.

    I a, strict came from central casting, because Comrade Brennan says Muh bombs are “real.”

  300. Wes says:

    Scooby, FL has voted for every winner in a presidential race since 1996, it’s biggest margins being 49-43 for Clinton and 52-47 for GWB. It’s nothing like a GOP lock.

    Even so, Scott and Nelson have each led three of the last six polls. That looks like a pure Tossup to me.

    By the way, we’ll find out if I’m too generous in 12 days, but I’ve moved it into the Lean GOP Pickup column in my rankings.

  301. Tina says:

    Enema is done.

    She has been done since the tutu ad.

    It is over.

    And she was a rising Jebot candidate.

  302. Tina says:

    6h
    THERE is NOTHING suspicious about Alexander Soros, son of George Soros, writing an NYT op-ed only within a few hours after the “bomb” threats against the Clintons and Obama. Don’t be played folks. nytimes.com/2018/10/24/opi…
    View summary ·

    Deep state gotta deep state.

  303. Scooby77 says:

    Sorry, all. The race that vexes me is Indiana. Crazy we wouldn’t win that one.

  304. Tina says:

    Randy Quaid
    @RandyRRQuaid
    Follow
    This Fake ? thing reminds me of how every Thanksgiving my mother throws herself down the stairs to get attention.
    3:11 PM – 24 Oct 2018

  305. GF says:

    268- “My Blue Fraud!” I used to love those posts.

  306. Wes says:

    Donnelly is stuck at roughly 44%, Scooby. Braun has been surging, and Donnelly hurt himself with his vote against Kavanaugh and is now scrambling to claim to be a Trump disciple.

    Donnelly probably wouldn’t even be in the Senate had Dick Mourdock not outed himself as a stone cold misogynist in 2012. As the race has tightened, Braun has poured money into his campaign and forced Donnelly to go into defensive mode.

    It’s still not a guaranteed pickup, but I think the GOP has a good shot at winning.

  307. GF says:

    Welcome back, Scooter! Sorry to hear about your loss, I lost my father to Alzheimer’s, that was a decade long process. It’s a tough pill to swallow, by the end, my birthday wish was simply that his suffering ended; he passed a week later.

  308. MichiganGuy says:

    “The former partner and alleged domestic violence victim of state Sen. Jeff Woodburn resigned Wednesday as chair of the Coos County Democratic Committee as her attorney charged that the state Democratic Party gave her a choice of “supporting her abuser’s campaign” or stepping down.”
    .
    https://www.wmur.com/article/woodburns-alleged-victim-resigns-as-chair-of-coos-county-democratic-committee/24185720
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Support the #MeToo movement unless the abuser is a democrat than shut-up!

  309. Mr.Vito says:

    Let me explain about Florida polls.

    There are good Florida polls and there are bad Florida polls…

    But one thing is constant. No one gets SE Florida wrong nor the panhandle wrong. 2-1 Dem. 2-1 Rep.

    When the polling is off, it is because of… other things…

    The I4 corridor is usually polled -10 to +10… the question is which is correct. Is it the pollster that says +3R? the one that says +5D?

    Finally, North Florida (above Ocala) and Southwest Florida (Sarasota to Ft Myers) must be polled correctly or the poll is trash.

    There are some trash polls this year, as always.

    Siena is currently a trash poll, but they will poll another 500 people probably.

  310. NYCmike says:

    Never an issue:
    TN
    TX

    Hold:
    AZ
    NV

    Flip:
    ND
    MO
    IN

    Too close to call:
    FL
    MT

    A chance?:
    MN (Franken seat)
    OH
    WI
    WV

    Too far:
    NJ

  311. Bitterlaw says:

    Scooter – GFY. I am doing my best. Kim keeps saying, “I kept telling him to stop harassing me. It was like he did not hear me.”

    Until you sign the HIPPA authorizations I can’t tell her you were deaf then.

  312. lisab says:

    BREAKING: Elizabeth Warren claims she received 1/1024 of a bomb in the mail today

  313. lisab says:

    “We need to vote all these Democrats out of office for their own safety. It’s the right and caring thing to do.” Chuck Woolery

  314. Florida Guy says:

    313. Good points.

    I am still depressed about DeSantis.

    Scott is having trouble.

    But I expect almost zero change in Florida Senate and a few seats in FL House.

    Ashley Moody will win AG. I am not sure any Dems will win for statewide beyond Gillum and Nelson.

    -FG

  315. janz says:

    So, the “bombs” appear more and more to be like replicate bombs. IOW, not real or dangerous. Who would benefit from such a pointed democrat scare? If an R masterminded this event what are the gains? I personally see there being none, as it would only serve to smear the Rs as thugs, as most would think the Rs were behind an assumed attack aimed solely @ Dems.

    If a D was behind today’s bomb drama, and everyone jumped to the conclusion that Trump’s people were behind this bomb placement ( as many on the left already have done) it might serve as a negative October Surprise dumped on the impending midterms.

  316. Mr.Vito says:

    20 week old child in the womb on MRI

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1054430168813457413

    poor mom!

  317. Mr.Vito says:

    Bet mom had to pee at the end there.

  318. Mr.Vito says:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6304155/25-millennials-say-PTSD-2016-election-study-says.html

    “But a quarter were so crestfallen their symptoms would be deemed a medical condition, severe enough to interfere with their work, social activities, and personal relationships”

  319. Mr.Vito says:

    Clark 2365 for D in EV today.

  320. janz says:

    Well just read that Rush Limbaugh & Candace Owens are talking about the possibility of dems being behind the packaged bombs. Their speculations are now being call “conspiracy theories.” And anything labeled conspiracy usually ends up dismissed. End of subject.

  321. MichiganGuy says:

    With less than two weeks remaining on the clock, Michael Bloomberg’s Independence USA PAC makes some massive TV buys against four GOP incumbents:
    .
    http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00532705/1281075/se
    .
    #CA25: $4.5 million
    #CA48: $4 million
    #VA10: $1.2 million
    #WA08: $2.1 million

  322. Mr.Vito says:

    It looks like a big drop of VBM today from Clark that netted 555 votes, but I don’t know if it will be put onto the totals tonight.

  323. Mr.Vito says:

    325 I guess that’s good news for the GOP. Comstock is still in it. The others are already considered tossups.

  324. michael corleone says:

    Vito I am assuming they netted 555 votes for the good guys? Source?

  325. lisab says:

    poor mom!
    ——————

    it is actually pretty amazing

  326. Mr.Vito says:

    The 555 net is for Dems, but out of more than 8000 votes.

    I could give you the source, but it is a comma delimited file of 50000+ names, etc…. so unless you are good with a spreadsheet, you won’t be able to verify.

    That’s why I was hoping nvsos would update it, but they did not.

  327. ReadyFirst says:

    255. & 318. Florida Guy. Sounds like we’re both pretty familiar with FL and the Central FL corridor. I live in that corridor, on the other side of the state from Pasco on the Space Coast. I think Mr. Vito and Hugh are also fellow Sunshine Staters. I think Rick Scott will be fine for a number of reasons. Ron Desantis has a tougher road to hoe, but I think he will be fine also.
    Republicans lead FL absentee voting (total raw votes cast of almost 1.2 million!!) 15.7%-13.9%. In the EV category, we’re doing very well compared to the 2016 General (R36.8%-D40.8% in 2016) which had a 4% spread. Currently, we’re only down 2.1% (40.8%-42.9%). No blue wave in these numbers and actually, Republicans are running ahead of 2016 in votes cast, so this bodes well for Republicans.
    I’ve commented here several times about Desantis’ early Campaign Manager problems. I think that’s fixed now, and the only stories in this race I hear about now are Gillum’s problems with the FBI. Desantis should be fine if he continues his current progress.
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278795-knockout-kings-andrew-gillum-ron-desantis-throw-haymakers-in-final-debate

  328. ReadyFirst says:

    Republicans lead FL absentee voting (total raw votes cast of almost 1.2 million!!) 15.7%-13.9%. In the EV category, we’re doing very well compared to the 2016 General (R36.8%-D40.8% in 2016) which had a 4% spread. Currently, we’re only down 2.1% (40.8%-42.9%). No blue wave in these numbers and actually, Republicans are running ahead of 2016 in votes cast, so this bodes well for Republicans.

    I thought this was important enough to warrant it’s own separate post.

  329. ReadyFirst says:

    What really matters in this story is that the Orlando Sentinel headline uses the words “Gillum” and “FBI probe”. The same type headline is being repeated all over the state.
    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/fl-ne-governor-broward-debate-20181024-story.html

  330. Tgca says:

    Who wants to discuss ABORTION?

  331. Redmen4ever says:

    Including state generic congressional ballot polls into my model, I’ve re-considered the four Nevada CDs:

    NV01 – safe D (no change), NV02 safe R (previously prob R), NV03 leans R (previously leans D), and NV04 leans D (no change)

  332. Redmen4ever says:

    Including state generic congressional ballot polls into my model, I’ve re-considered the five Connecticut CDs:

    CT01 to CT04 – safe D (no change), and CT05 safe D (previously prob D)

  333. Bitterlaw says:

    Bold Prediction – If Democrats take control of the House, Democrats, Never-Trumpers, Robbie and Corey will say it is because Trump is evil/sucks. Trump supporters will say that it was expected because the party out of the WH always makes gains, it could have been worse except Trump is awesome, and the Representatives who lost were not Trump enough.

  334. EML says:

    New Florida numbers in.
    Dems won mail in ballots. Republican margin drops from 58,317 to 56,115.
    Reps won walk in vote. Dem margin drops from 5467 to 2947
    Overall, Republicans increase ballot lead by 318

  335. EML says:

    32 Florida counties have not yet started in person voting. Trump won 31 of them.

  336. MichiganGuy says:

    The polls says the dems will win Florida and Bitter says we should always believe the polls. So, it doesn’t matter about the votes.

  337. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Thanks EML.
    Michigan Guy–you are correct. It appears that there are alternate universes when it comes to the political situation in Florida. In one, there are the polls and in the other, the raw votes.

  338. Messy says:

    334. IT should be safe, legal and rare.

    337. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Bitter is correct.

    319. No, they’re real enough. That’s what FOX news says.

    324. They ALWAYS promote conspiracy theories. That’s what they and Alex Jones DO.

    267. No hoax, but still terrorism.

    254. You from North Dakota?

  339. MichiganGuy says:

    2018 State Legislative Election Forecasts:
    .
    https://www.klarnerpolitics.org/
    .
    Walt or Cash Cow, this guy says West Virginia State House has a 60% chance of flipping to the Democrats. True?

  340. lisab says:

    If Democrats take control of the House, Democrats, Never-Trumpers, Robbie and Corey will say it is because Trump is evil/sucks. Trump supporters will say that it was expected because the party out of the WH always makes gains, it could have been worse except Trump is awesome, and the Representatives who lost were not Trump enough.
    ——————————————
    there is a historical average to judge against. math does not lie.

    the average loss, since ww2, is 31 seats.

    right now it appears trump will be right at the average.

  341. Todd McCain says:

    The fact that we are on the cusp of potentially having a lead in the actual in person vote speaks volumes.

  342. MichiganGuy says:

    “President Trump will hold at least 10 midterms rallies between Oct. 31 and Election Day, with the possibility of bumping it up to two rallies each day in two different states, per three sources familiar with the planning. The White House and Secret Service are still working out the logistics.

    A source familiar with the rallies said the first will be held in Florida next Wednesday and Vice President Mike Pence will join on a couple of the stops.”
    .
    https://www.axios.com/trumps-2018-midterm-elections-rallies-schedule-cb07bac5-b59b-4f50-886b-deaa351a161d.html

  343. Tina says:

    Anything new on Muh bombs?

  344. MichiganGuy says:

    A suspicious package and device similar to others sent to top Democrats and others this week was sent to a building that houses offices for Tribeca Films and Tribeca Grill that Robert De Niro owns, law enforcement and sources tell NBC News New York.
    .
    https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Pipe-Bombs-Clinton-Obama-Soros-Waters-CNN-Time-Warner-Holder-Brennan-498490732.html

  345. Tina says:

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii
    5m
    Democrats have polls, Republicans have results. Republicans lead FL early voting by 53,000 votes. This is exactly in line with Primary voting that Republicans won by 120,000 votes.
    View details ·

    But my polls.

    Gcb by 12

    Jebots concur.

  346. lisab says:

    i would not count your chickens before they hatch!

    the average loss of governors is 2, and the average loss in the senate is also about 2

  347. Todd McCain says:

    339. Wow; that’s a hell of a fact right there. When do those 31 counties get up and running with EV?

  348. Skippy says:

    Updated Thursday morning:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.11%
    Democrats 38.96%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +56,115

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.71%
    Democrats 39.67%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin: Republicans +53,168

  349. EML says:

    339. Wow; that’s a hell of a fact right there. When do those 31 counties get up and running with EV?
    =======================
    All counties are required to have in person voting open by Saturday.

  350. DW says:

    EPIC-MRA – Michigan Senate

    Stabenow 49%
    James 42%

  351. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan
    .
    Governor
    .

    Schuette (R) 41%
    Whitmer (D) 46%
    .
    Senate
    .
    James (R) 42%
    Stabenow (D) 49%
    .
    EPIC-MRA Poll
    https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/25/free-press-poll-whitmer-lead-over-schuette-shrinks-5-points/1748709002/
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Fool’s gold?

  352. DW says:

    George Mason U just put out a poll of VA_10 showing Comstock trailing 43/56.

    If it was that big of lead, Bloomberg would not have just plunked down piles of cash to fight her.

    Sometimes you have to ignore public polling and follow the cash. Comstock is probably down, but not down by that much.

  353. MichiganGuy says:

    Since DW is too lazy to put a link I will consider mine first.

  354. DW says:

    Fool’s gold?

    yes.

  355. Phil says:

    Those Florida early voter numbers look fantastic. Hard to believe the Florida polls have gone south like they have. I don’t know what to make of any of any of it.

  356. EML says:

    There are 8 counties in Florida whose returned ballots are greater than 25% of their 2016 total. All voted for Trump.

    There are 8 counties in Florida that have started in person voting and whose returned ballots are less than 15% of their 2016 total. 4 are counties Clinton won (out of 9 total she won) and another 2 Trump won by less than 5%.

  357. Skippy says:

    Detroit Free Press – EPIC MRA Poll of Oct 25, 2016 had Clinton up 6. When the same poll repeated the Presidential poll again before 2016 Election Day it had it Clinton +4 and did catch the Trump surge in Michigan better than all published polls with the exception of a Republican Pollster.

    John James is making it interesting. Governors race is getting tighter, plus the attorney general race in Michigan is now all tied up. Obama is now visiting Detroit.

    Game on.

  358. jason says:

    Tgca, you would have loved my breakfast. I had some brisket left over and made one heck of a brisket hash. Topped with 3 sunny side up eggs, biscuits, side of slab bacon. On my third cup of freshly ground extra bold dark roast coffee.

  359. jason says:

    I think nominating a total bum for governor”

    Translation: a Trump supporter.

  360. jason says:

    Corey should be back soon to tell us how “maybe” Trump driven conservatives are incompetent terrorists like the “bad shot” that sprayed a baseball field full of GOP congressmen.

  361. EML says:

    One thing NYT/Siena ‘pulling back the curtain’ has revealed is that they have already decided months ago who was going to vote. That’s where their weighting comes in. Once you have decided who is going to vote, calling 60,000 people to get 500 responses is just a formality. Republicans are going to vote Republican and Democrats are going to vote Democrat.

    The pollsters have decided that with no Trump on the ballot, Trump voters will stay home; that because of Trump, mainline conservatives and NeverTrumpers will stay home; and because of Trump, Democrats, women, young people, and minorities will flood polling stations. This is not what early voting is indicating.

    Early voting has long been a Democratic strong point. But they are getting killed across the board so far. Maybe they will make it up in the last week; maybe they will turn out big on election day. But you would think people who are supposed to be enthusiastic about voting against Trump would be out there on Day One.

    Beginning to suspect that the pollster have the makeup of the electorate completely wrong.

  362. jason says:

    If Democrats take control of the House, Democrats, Never-Trumpers, Robbie and Corey will say it is because Trump is evil/sucks. Trump supporters will say that it was expected because the party out of the WH always makes gains, it could have been worse except Trump is awesome, and the Representatives who lost were not Trump enough.”

    So what? Is this supposed to be some brilliant analysis?

    The TDS morons will be wrong and those who say the party out of power always makes gains will be right.

    GFY.

  363. jason says:

    Bitter likes to make these “both sides are wrong” statements. I prefer to take a stance one way of the other.

    I think A-holes that sit on the fence too long get damaged.

  364. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Tina
    Does this sound right about the vote in CA?

    From that PPIC poll: Repubs lead generic ballot 49-44 in competitive California congressional districts. https://t.co/OU813Vw4lG

  365. dblaikie says:

    I have great respect for DW, but I disagree with him on Michigan. Michigan Guy is right about polls with a bias towards the Dems. What polls in Michigan can never quite solve is what will happen with Wayne County. If there is a strong turnout in Wayne and VOTING PATTERNS REMAIN THE SAME Debbie will win. But if James cuts into the Democratic percentage in Wayne or if Debbie can not motive them James could win. Polling will not reveal what way this will go it is one of those mysteries voting computer models can’t unlock.

    I lived in the Detroit area for 15 years. When I first arrived there I read a long piece in the Detroit Free Press about how Detroit and it’s Suburbs were the most segregated in America (Detroit over 80% African American, Livonia 95% white). That was not in doubt. But what was unusual about Wayne County is that everyone, especially Detroit, liked it that way. In the words of longtime Mayor Coleman Young to the non African American citizens after the riots, “If you don’t like it here 8 mile road is that way.” Since his tenure Detroit remains a fiercely proud African American City. Even with a Non African American Mayor that never changes.

    I say all this because Debbie will get a majority of the vote in Detroit. However many of those who are justly proud of their heritage and color, will have mixed emotions voting for her. The question is how many will switch votes based not on ideology but race. If you are from the Metro area you will understand my thinking.

  366. jason says:

    Investors moving away from Donnelly and McCaskill on Predictit

    Donnelly 43-57
    McCaskill 38-62
    Heller 55-45

    On the negative side

    Tester 65-35
    Nelson 59-41

  367. DW says:

    369 – I am not saying its impossible for James to win, and I really hope its this year’s Gillespie/Warner race with the difference being the actual outcome. We will know in 12 days.

  368. BayernFan says:

    “Investors”? lol

    Bettors more accurate.

  369. Redmen4ever says:

    365 – exactly. Siena has baked in a Democratic wave turnout model.

    Here’s how you should poll: Step 1. Generate a sample of Adults or Registered Voters that either naturally looks like the known demographics of either of those populations or comes close and you weight the sample.

    Step 2. Apply a likely voter filter to the above sample.

    But, what they do (and by them, I mean almost all of them), they presume to know the turnout model and apply their presumed turnout model weights to their sample of likely voters.

    Siena is particularly bad at this, since they dope by party affiliation. In an age of extreme polarization, the effect of doping by party affiliation is to reduce the sample essentially to independent voters, meaning that sample sizes are about one-third or less than what is stated to be sample size.

  370. jason says:

    The bombs don’t seem to have had any impact on Predictit so far. GOP chance of holding house still at 39%.

    Corey and Amoral Scumbag hardest hit.

  371. jason says:

    “Investors”? lol

    Bettors more accurate.”

    Actually, it’s not accurate at all. Unless anyone in the stock market is a “bettor” rather than an investor.

    Predictit is like a stock exchange, and the system operates like options. You buy shares at a certain price and you get to sell them upon the outcome.

    So investing is quite accurate.

  372. DW says:

    365 – we see this routinely in Siena’s polling when it starts and there are two votes in, one for each candidate but the Republican trails 51/49, or 56/44. It has to be the weighting they have pre-defined.

    And its why I was saying that if Siena calls you, the only way to move the needle is to say you are a Dem voting R, or an Indy voting R. If you say you are a D voting D or R voting R, it just gets thrown onto the pile.

  373. DW says:

    At least Siena has, on multiple occasions, included a warning that they heavily weighted the results. They couldn’t get what they expected so they weight, or change it if you will, to get what they expected.

    And people laughed at Paladin Polls.

  374. MichiganGuy says:

    #9 Joe Biden becomes latest bomb target.
    .
    https://nypost.com/2018/10/25/joe-biden-becomes-latest-bomb-scare-target/
    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    Nine possible bombs and none explode? I smell a rat. A dem rat.

  375. Poul Harris says:

    And people laughed at Paladin Polls.”

    Not me.

    I referenced them in my stellar analysis.

    – Poul Harris

  376. jason says:

    Who is next?

    Jimmy Carter?

  377. DW says:

    USA/Today-Suffolk Generic ballot:

    R43 / D51

    D+8

    Prior one was D+11

  378. BayernFan says:

    Prolly Pelosi, Baldwin, Kathy Griffin? Behar? Maddow?

  379. jason says:

    Bet mom had to pee at the end there.”

    I doubt it.

    A 20 wk old fetus is about the size of a banana.

  380. Todd McCain says:

    I am starting to believe these “bombs” were sent by DEM operatives to change the narrative of the election; call me a conspiracy theorist.

  381. jason says:

    I had yet to pick my “surprise” of the election.

    I am torn between Morissey and James.

    I will go with James.

    If I am wrong I can blame MG.

  382. Phil says:

    The bomb thing was brilliant. Consider the timing. Right at the beginning of the middle of early voting. Well played lefties. Well played.

  383. mnw says:

    Larry Schweikart has a numbered 26-point tweet up this morning:

    “26. Based on the numbers we’ve seen so far, I remain convinced the GOP will gain 4-7 Senate seats & hold the House by about 5 seats. This could change, obviously, but most likely in the GOP’s favor if it does.”

    I don’t mention Schweikart much at RRH. The Wise Men think he’s a “huckster,” & that his 2016 predictions (uncannily correct, as the world knows) were just a lucky wild guess.

  384. jason says:

    I am starting to believe these “bombs” were sent by DEM operatives to change the narrative of the election; call me a conspiracy theorist.”

    I am not ready to say that but there are some things that don’t jive with a right wing terrorist trying to damage the other side.

    The choice of targets.

    The fact none of the bombs exploded. I would like to see the FBI say whether they were really set to explode or were dummies.

    The timing.

    A right wing terrorist would also have sent one to the WH in order to dissimulate.

    It might well be a right wing moron. Or not.

  385. DW says:

    Back to the topic of Siena.

    I would again point out what I found last week when I checked their polls of NY against actual results in 2014 and 2016.

    They sometimes poll blow-out races, which are not relevant when the poll was ‘off’ a few points from an actual result of +17 for a candidate.

    But of the 7 times in those two years, when they polled competitive NY house races, their poll favored the Democrat each of the 7 times. This fact, along with the fact that until this year they haven’t polled outside of NY state, and given the fact that they admit in many of their polls that they are heavily weighted because they cannot get what they are expecting, then we should be slow to accept them–whether the news is good or bad for the GOP.

    Furthermore, I checked the Siena polls against other major pollsters, both universities like CNU, Monmouth, etc., and against firms like SUSA, Mason-Dixon, etc.

    Here is what I am finding for the 2018 polling:

    Siena was about the same as others:

    FL_15 – SUSA
    WV_03 – Monmouth
    VA_10 – CNU & Monmouth
    CA_49 – LA Times

    Siena was to the right (favored GOP) of other pollsters:

    NC_13 – SUSA
    NJ_07 – Monmouth
    VA_07 – Monmouth
    NY_19 – Monmouth
    NC_09 – SUSA
    CA_25 – LA Times
    CA_45 – LA Times

    Siena was to the left (favored Dems) of the other pollsters:

    FL_26 – Mason-Dixon
    VA_02 – CNU
    IA_03 – Emerson
    CA_48 – Monmouth & LA Times
    CA_39 – Monmouth
    PA_01 – Monmouth
    NJ_03 – Monmouth & Stockton
    WA_08 – Elway
    FL_27 – Mason-Dixon
    MN_02 – SUSA
    MN_03 – SUSA
    NJ_11 – Monmouth
    PA_07 – Monmouth
    IA_01 – Emerson

    And of course there are many seats where Siena is alone in polling except for campaign internal releases.

    So I am increasingly skeptical that the NY Times/Siena gimmick will go down in flames as a laughingstock on election night. They will hit a few races right just like a stopped clock, but will be way off on many races, and will display a leftward tilt if not outright lean.

  386. jason says:

    This Schweikart guy is either going to be the next Nate Silverhack or be relegated to the trash heap of pundits.

  387. mnw says:

    RAS today: 47/51.

  388. Todd McCain says:

    390. Agreed

  389. jason says:

    I am surprised the perpetrator hasn’t been identified yet. Too many bombs, too many mailings/deliveries for him not to have been caught on tape somewhere.

  390. DW says:

    Silverhack will be around a long time. He learned in 2016 that as long as he is just a tick closer to accurate than his liberal colleagues, he gets to be the one who was ‘right’ while at the same time putting out garbage data that is far left of reality.

  391. DW says:

    RCP generic ballot average down to D+7.3 and the only double-digit lead (+11) is the next to drop off.

  392. MichiganGuy says:

    jason says:
    October 25, 2018 at 10:19 am

    I had yet to pick my “surprise” of the election.

    I am torn between Morissey and James.

    I will go with James.

    If I am wrong I can blame MG.
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    I never said James was going to win. I merely asked the question is this fool’s gold. I think Hugin in New Jersey has a better chance of winning and I don’t think Hugin will win either. If you can’t take responsibility for your choices then blame dblaikie; he is the one who believes James has a good chance of winning.

  393. jason says:

    Silverhack is a glorified baseball statistician who became famous predicting Dems would win everything in a year they won everything.

    Since then he has had mixed results, but his primary role is to be a partisan hack massaging numbers to make the Dems look better than they really are, electorally speaking.

    I think he is a complete fraud, his “formulas” are bogus and biased and his first loyalty is to the cause, not the numbers. He always leaves himself enough room so that he can claim to be right most of the time.

    At 9 PM on election night, although I am sure he knew Hillary was toast, he actually upped her chances of winning.

  394. Phil says:

    DW, I would like to believe some of the really close races where Republicans are in jeopardy will fall our way – and I believe that will be the case. It is why I am not buying Silver’s D+40 prediction. I’m just not. It should be more like 30 and if everything falls our way it could be in the high 20s. Given that we are going to lose 13 seats in 3 states alone – Pa, NJ, and California – that would be pretty damned good.

    Outside of the two seats in Minn do you think there are any other D seats we have a shot at flipping?

  395. jason says:

    MG has the sense of humor of a dog turd, I see.

    That was a joke, I merely meant your analysis swayed me from Morissey to James.

    Since you are such a humorless cuss, GFY.

  396. Todd McCain says:

    The NV EV so far seems to point to a small Heller/Laxalt win.

  397. MichiganGuy says:

    My surprise pick of the election will be Montana Senate race. All polls show Tester winning. I believe Rosendale will win.

  398. MichiganGuy says:

    jason says:
    October 25, 2018 at 10:46 am

    MG has the sense of humor of a dog turd, I see.

    That was a joke, I merely meant your analysis swayed me from Morissey to James.
    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    I did an analysis? That is news to me.

  399. jason says:

    I have to comment of that stupid hit piece GPo posted on Ben Sasse.

    What a load of garbage.

    The point of the article was that Sasse shouldn’t be bashing fellow conservative while bashing a fellow conservative. Hilarious.

    I have news for GPo and Kurt Schlichter. If a principled conservative like Sasse is not conservative enough for the GOP, the GOP is going to be an irrelevant minority for a longgggggg time.

  400. DW says:

    “At 9 PM on election night, although I am sure he knew Hillary was toast, he actually upped her chances of winning.”

    I re-checked the 84 page Election Night Coverage Atlas I wrote, and here are the entries I had for Silver:

    8:18 PM:

    Nate Silver reports to ABC News that Clinton’s chances of winning have moved from 72% to 78% based on the data thus far. He says script is going more like the Clinton campaign would want it, based on states expected going her way in fact going into her column.

    9:04 PM:

    Nate Silver says it is now a better than even chance that Trump wins FL.

    10:15 PM:

    Nate Silver on ABC says Clinton has a 60% chance of winning election, though Silver admits betting markets now show Trump with a slight edge to win election. Silver says no battleground states have been called yet, but Clinton is in profound trouble in the Electoral College. Her downfall could be the Midwest.

    11:59 PM

    Nate Silver on ABC now projects Trump’s chances at 78% to win, though he now expects Clinton to win popular vote.

    2:20 AM

    James Carville on MSNBC says Clinton campaign had the most successful party convention in modern political history. He went on to say that according to Nate Silver, Clinton won the three debates by more than any other candidate in history.

    –There you go, Silver said Clinton won the debates, so the election was settled. Anyone paying attention knew by 10:15 PM, Clinton was toast, but Silver was still saying she was the favorite. Hack!

    Here is what others were saying within five minutes either side of 10:15 PM:

    John King at CNN shows the many paths now for Donald Trump, and indicates that just a couple of weeks ago this was “not a reality based conversation.”

    Brit Hume on Fox News says the betting odds are now Trump with a 74% chance of winning the election.

    Tucker Carlson on Fox News says if you are a Democrat at a watch party you are horrified right now.

    NBC shows a tweeted picture of Clinton hugging a girl and thanking everyone regardless what happens tonight.

    Kristen Welker at Clinton headquarters says top campaign officials told her they are not panicking, that there still is a path for her to win, even if they don’t win FL and OH. The path is now MI, CO, VA, and PA. Welker spoke to supporters who now admit they are nervous. They expected a victory celebration but now they know it is a very close race. The initial mood was cheers, now it is quieter, moments of cheering are fewer and far between.

    Steve Karnacki on MSNBC looks at FL and sees Trump’s lead is steady, and he affirms that frankly she is running out of places to get more votes.

    Cecilia Vega on ABC points out that normally when the Democrats are experiencing good news they are screaming it from the rooftops to the media, but tonight they have gone silent.

    Terry Moran on ABC says that when the rural voter left behind by globalization “gets the chance to punch the elite in the face, they have.”

    ABC’s Tom Llamas reports that Trump campaign chair Kellyanne Conway recently invited Trump to the war-room to watch returns, and characterizes their mood as energized and optimistic.

    John King on CNN examines data from MI and finds Trump running up big margins in the rural counties which is what he needs to offset the Clinton advantage in Detroit. King says Clinton team must be very tense.

    Chris Matthews on MSNBC says “I hope there is clarity, I hope there is a concession speech by the loser. I hope the American people go to bed and say at least we have an electoral system that works that is clean is trustable is not rigged and in the end we had an exciting race which surprising…as disturbing as it was at least we had a conclusion.”

    Tom Brokaw on NBC says the media establishment has missed the depth of the anger among voters who are demanding change. Chuck Todd agrees we have forgotten rural America. Savannah Guthrie says they have been hiding in plain sight. Trump easily found them.

    —All of these statements in a context while Silver holds to Clinton still a 60% favorite to win!! HACK!!!

  401. MichiganGuy says:

    Bannon holds rally for Republican candidates but none show up.
    .
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/25/steve-bannon-rally-elma-new-york-republicans
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    Poor Steve. LOL

  402. DW says:

    “Outside of the two seats in Minn do you think there are any other D seats we have a shot at flipping?”

    NV_03, NV_04, AZ_01, NH_01.

    Then there is always that oddball race that was under the radar and surprises. Of course the GOP will lose one like that too.

  403. jason says:

    I did an analysis? That is news to me.”

    Sorry about that.

    You are right, “analysis” would be way overrating anything you post.

  404. phoenixrisen says:

    385 — Jason, I would agree with you on that but it could be bigger than that.

    What I have noticed is there has not been much polling in Wisconsin, Michigan, or the Ohio Senate races. The WV Senate race is really tight right now. Remember when you and I discussed during Election Night 2016 how pollsters could have been polling urban centers of big cities rather than taking a portion of that and counterweighted with suburban and rural voters as well. The same thing could be happening again. Given how the rural vote is showing up en masse in early voting, I really wonder where things are at.

    In Michigan, I know for a fact there is Stabenow fatigue and that she is a Schumer lackey. However, how this will translate in the race with James is hard to tell. James is a really good candidate credential-wise.

    Renacci has really been attacking Brown and Brown was certainly testy in their most recent debate. Both Renacci, James, and Vukmir in Wisconsin have been closing the gap for over a month. Will they catch up and pass Brown, Stabenow, and Baldwin? Who knows. But I do find it curious that Trump is campaigning in those areas.

  405. mnw says:

    interesting trivia:

    Grassley reminds voters in IA that he’s 85, & that they better reelect the GOP Gov (Reynolds), because “something could happen to me in the next 4 years, even though I’m in good health.”

  406. dblaikie says:

    James is my pick for a surprise win, but let me clear: If Wayne County voting pattern remains the same my pick will ride off in the sunset. I am counting that Wayne will be slightly more favorable for James — because of race. Not trying to be racist just realistic.

  407. jason says:

    8:18 PM:

    Nate Silver reports to ABC News that Clinton’s chances of winning have moved from 72% to 78% based on the data thus far.”

    Ok I stand corrected. It was 8:18 not 9 PM when he upped her chances.

    However, at 8:18 there was nothing in the results that would merit that.

  408. MichiganGuy says:

    Jason, I accept your apology. 🙂

  409. MichiganGuy says:

    #411 Race will not be a factor. Kanye West is more popular in the AA community and do you see how fast they turned on him for supporting Trump.

  410. phoenixrisen says:

    Other potential surprises are the Minnesota Senate race between Smith(D) and Housley(R) where Smith didn’t show up to the debate and last poll a week ago showed Smith up 6 with Housely closing. Also, Hugin closing on Menendez in New Jersey.

    If the GOP were to sweep ALL these races I just mentioned as well as ND, MT, WV, FL, and MO, which is really shooting for the moon and looks totally unrealistic, they would be at 61 seats in the Senate. I think Schweichert’s prediction looks quite reasonable. I’m thinking 3-6 seat gain right now with how things look right now.

  411. BayernFan says:

    In other words, Nate, why don’t we just count the votes?

  412. jason says:

    Since its such a big issue for MG that I jokingly said I would blame him/her if my long shot (James) did not come in, let me be perfectly clear for the moron.

    If James does not win I will not assign any blame to MG whatsoever. None. Zilch. Nada. Completely absolved. Guiltless.

    MG can now devote his/her small mind to other concerns.

  413. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!

    Republicans outpacing Democrats in early voting in key states.
    .
    Early Voting According to NBC News:

    ARIZONA
    ?44%
    ?33%

    FLORIDA
    ?44%
    ?38%

    GEORGIA
    ?52%
    ?43%

    INDIANA
    ?51%
    ?38%

    MONTANA
    ?48%
    ?29%

    NEVADA
    ?38%
    ?45%

    TENNESSEE
    ?63%
    ?30%

    TEXAS
    ?53%
    ?43%
    .
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/republicans-outpacing-democrats-early-voting-key-states-nbc-news-finds-n922881

  414. MichiganGuy says:

    The question marks were suppose to be a red dot and a blue dot. Republicans are the 1st # followed by the Democrats.

  415. dblaikie says:

    I saw the media and Hollywood turn on Kayne. The folks who vote in Detroit are not the same.

  416. BayernFan says:

    Again, Indiana does not have party registration. So how can they know?

  417. phoenixrisen says:

    With that early vote margin in Montana, I don’t see how Tester survives.

  418. MichiganGuy says:

    BayernFan says:
    October 25, 2018 at 11:16 am

    Again, Indiana does not have party registration. So how can they know?
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    BayernFan, I hope you are not insinuating that NBC/MSNBC is fake news! LOL

  419. Hugh says:

    NV is 40 42. Not 38 45

  420. MichiganGuy says:

    I knew Jason wasn’t a big enough person to leave it at him saying I’m sorry. You would think someone who hangs out with Amish people would be a nicer person. Sigh

  421. DW says:

    At least Nate Silver in the 2016 election night coverage had the old fossil Bob Schieffer on board:

    11:41 PM: Bob Schieffer on CBS says the election could still go either way, but while he says this, side by side video of each campaign headquarters indicate the direction the election is headed. Clinton supporters are in tears, dejected, Trump supporters are cheering.

  422. MichiganGuy says:

    Hugh, Correct NBC #’s are not up to date.

  423. jason says:

    You didn’t read that right.

    I said I was sorry I gave you more credit than you deserved.

    I made a harmless joke and you decided to act like an ass.

    So GFY again.

  424. MichiganGuy says:

    Senator Chuck Grassley, who’s 85 and has four years left in his term, says that a reason to vote for the Republican governor is that he may not make it all the way through and she would need to be there to appoint a Republican successor.
    .
    https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/24/chuck-grassley-republican-democrat-iowa-senate-judiciary-committee-reynolds-hubbell-trump-election/1749335002/

  425. DW says:

    8:18 PM:
    Nate Silver reports to ABC News that Clinton’s chances of winning have moved from 72% to 78% based on the data thus far.”

    Ok I stand corrected. It was 8:18 not 9 PM when he upped her chances.

    However, at 8:18 there was nothing in the results that would merit that.

    —Exactly jason, right around 8:18 Trump had re-taken the lead in FL, and pundits were talking about the rural vote was coming in big for Trump. Not the sort of environment where anyone with common sense would raise Clinton’s chances of winning.

    Silver’s greater stupidity was the 60% chance he gave Clinton at 10:15 PM

  426. jason says:

    “If you can’t take responsibility for your choices”

    We can see what a “nice person” MG is…..

  427. jason says:

    actly jason, right around 8:18 Trump had re-taken the lead in FL, and pundits were talking about the rural vote was coming in big for Trump. Not the sort of environment where anyone with common sense would raise Clinton’s chances of winning.”

    Yep, by then the KY, IN and other results were already showing a rural vote much stronger than predicted for Trump, including red counties in FL, NC and elsewhere.

    He could have said I think the firewall in WI, PA and MI will still hold, but UP her chances… nahhhh.

  428. DW says:

    Monmouth – NJ_03

    Kim (D) 48%
    MacArthur (R) 46%

    Sample of only 363

    Siena is currently polling this seat and has MacArthur +2 for what its worth.

  429. MichiganGuy says:

    jason says:
    October 25, 2018 at 11:32 am

    You didn’t read that right.

    I said I was sorry I gave you more credit than you deserved.

    I made a harmless joke and you decided to act like an ass.
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Let’s see. I have not called Jason one derogatory name. Yet he continues to insult me in every post but, in his mind I am the one acting like an ass. LOL

  430. MichiganGuy says:

    jason says:
    October 25, 2018 at 11:36 am

    “If you can’t take responsibility for your choices”

    We can see what a “nice person” MG is…..
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    This is what made Jason explode at me. wow OK, Jason fine don’t take responsibility for your choices. Are you happy now.

  431. MichiganGuy says:

    Secretary of Defense James Mattis will order an additional 800 troops to the U.S. border with Mexico in response to the new migrant caravan.
    .
    https://www.breitbart.com/border/2018/10/25/report-mattis-will-order-800-additional-troops-to-u-s-mexico-border/

  432. DW says:

    Sabato out with a pile of changes–some benign and even silly, but some for once actually in favor of the GOP:

    Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8) – was Safe Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Jim Costa (D, CA-16) – was Safe Democratic – now: Likely Democratic
    Scott Tipton (R, CO-3) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) – was Leans Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Brian Mast (R, FL-18) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    FL-6 Open (DeSantis, R) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    Karen Handel (R, GA-6) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    Mike Bost (R, IL-12) – was Toss-up – now: Leans Republican
    Justin Amash (R, MI-3) – was Safe Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Bill Huizenga (R, MI-2) – was Safe Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Fred Upton (R, MI-6) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    John Katko (R, NY-24) – was Likely Republican – now: Leans Republican
    Peter King (R, NY-2) – was Safe Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Elise Stefanik (R, NY-21) – was Safe Republican – now: Likely Republican
    Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) – was Toss-up – now: Leans Republican
    VA-5 Open (Garrett, R) – was Leans Republican – now: Toss-up

  433. DW says:

    Take NY_24, there is no reason in the world to change this from Likely R to Lean R. The Dems did not get a quality challenger to a popular incumbent in John Katko.

  434. Redmen4ever says:

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in September

    Economy Remains on Strong Growth Trajectory Heading into 2019

    https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

  435. jason says:

    his is what made Jason explode at me. wow OK, Jason fine don’t take responsibility for your choices. Are you happy now.”

    Awwww…. are you upset?

    MG responds like a jerk to a harmless joke and now feels sorry for himself.

    No free lunch, GFY.

  436. jason says:

    Dow is up 270 pts today….

  437. jason says:

    James is my pick for a surprise win, but let me clear:”

    Sorry, man, no caveats.

    You have to take responsibility for your picks.

  438. lisab says:

    who would try to blow up cnn, hillary, robert de niro, john brennan and eric holder

    why blow up has beens?

    and why brennan or holder? they have zero influence.

    and if you are thinking these are all just famous targets used to get attention,

    then why target cnn?

  439. dblaikie says:

    Jason, you know I always take responsibility for my picks. But if I am wrong, it is because I was wrong about what will happen in Wayne County.

  440. NYCmike says:

    2 things about the “bombs”:

    1) Bernie didn’t get one.
    2) Mika is already out there calling it “terror by mail”.

    I call this a staged event, by the Evil Deep State Establishment.

  441. NYCmike says:

    “Bitter likes to make these “both sides are wrong” statements.”

    -So jason finally catches up to what I have been saying about Bitterlaw for about 10 years now.

    You would think the A-Hole would have wised up after my opinions about MD and Author were shown to be correct.

  442. dblaikie says:

    I know the talking heads are going to hope that somehow these so-called bombs is going to lesson Republican turnout? That is what Rush is reporting. What a joke! If anything most of us deplorable red state people are cynical about these bombs.

    However there is one way to tell. If Republican early voting dries up in the next few days (one of the important data points in early voting — enthusiasm) then I will get worried.

  443. NYCmike says:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/sens-ted-cruz-and-doug-jones-have-introduced-a-civil-rights-cold-case-bill-that-is-both-righteous-and-politically-clever

    -Will Cruz help Doug Jones get re-elected?

    And is Cruz just showboating, or trying to do something good, as well as bipartisan, despite what “The Establishment” people at HHR always say about him?

  444. lisab says:

    md’s change to dem was weird

    i can see him being too embarrassed to come back

    but after playing the tough guy for years, how does he now hang out with snowflakes?

  445. lisab says:

    he probably drinks natural light now

  446. Todd McCain says:

    Doug Jones has about as much of a shot to be re-elected as I do at becoming in astronaut.

  447. NYCmike says:

    MD is re-tweeting a guy whose name is “Beto Will Win”……enough said.

    If that doesn’t make the other A-Holes look in the mirror and ask “how could we not have seen this, even with NYCmike telling us over and over?” I don’t know what will.

  448. lisab says:

    when md lost his job,

    i think it changed him

  449. NYCmike says:

    MD also doesn’t like Patrick Reed, the pro golfer.

    Reed is pretty much like Trump, outspoken to a fault, but very good at what he does.

    MD is reverting back to his childhood, when he says he was bullied.

    Maybe he should sneak up another big bully and kick him from behind, like he did in high school. It obviously didn’t work for him the first time.

  450. NYCmike says:

    “when md lost his job,

    i think it changed him”

    -I was just going to say that!

    He claimed to have such an income, but then started complaining about healthcare costs when he went out on his own.

  451. NYCmike says:

    I never wished bad on him, even when he was yapping about me working for a family business.

    Hope he is able to be happy.

  452. lisab says:

    btw, megyn kelly is getting fired

    she made a big mistake leaving fox

    with bill o’reilly gone she would have been the biggest name — and now her name is tarnished

    she could have kept her show at fox at least through 2020

  453. jason says:

    Chemtrail Ward still sending me emails as if she were a candidate.

    Today I got one AZ State Troopers pull Sinema endorsement. Dr. Kelli Ward US Senate.

  454. Dylan says:

    Megyn went for a pay raise with PC liberal NBC and got burned. Not surprising. Current Fox line up has sort of moved on. Not sure she gets to just come back and make huge money

  455. Todd McCain says:

    461. She didn’t really get burned; she’s going to collect on her 69 M contract.

  456. jason says:

    MD was more conservative than I was, he once berated me for not being more supportive of deadender Sharron Angle, even when I sent her a check, I was so desperate to defeat Harry Reid.

    But frankly, not much difference in his TDS with Corey’s and Amoral Scumbag’s. One is predicting a 60 seat loss because it will hurt Trump and the other is ok with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker because it will hurt Trump.

    The difference is that while the Jebots were always Jebots first and Republican and conservative second, MD was a staunch fiscal conservative. He hated the Dems tax and spend policies with a passion.

  457. jason says:

    If that doesn’t make the other A-Holes look in the mirror and ask “how could we not have seen this, even with NYCmike telling us over and over?” I don’t know what will.”

    You were right.

    GFY.

  458. BayernFan says:

    MD was always an idiot, a bully, and a grade A coward. Still is, maybe even a bigger one, it that is even possible.

  459. jason says:

    Political correctness gone crazy.

    All she said was she thought it was ok for Halloween costumes to have black face or white face.

    I am glad I work for myself, I would never survive in this type of corporate climate.

    I feel bad for my kids.

  460. BayernFan says:

    chit just happens to people who cross Trump.

  461. jason says:

    I like Meghan Kelly. But she is no conservative, she looked like she had been hit by a bulldozer when Trump won.

    Still, I would welcome her back on Fox.

  462. jason says:

    .chit just happens to people who cross Trump.”

    69 million?

    Where do I sign up to cross him?

  463. jason says:

    MD was always an idiot, a bully, and a grade A coward.”

    Sorry, I don’t agree.

    He was very proud, no doubt. He didn’t suffer fools easily, but I don’t either.

    Most of the time I got along fine with him, we agreed a lot more than we disagreed.

    He definitely had good trading skills. He was pretty accurate on PA politics. He was definitely an A-hole icon.

    He changed, what can I say. Maybe he couldn’t get over being wrong on Trump. Or he just became bitter after losing his job.

    But I am not going to beat on him for the time he was here. I considered him a friend, like I did Author.

    Politics makes strange bedfellows. I guess sometimes they make bedfellow go different ways too.

  464. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    All the smaller Nevada Counties other than Nye have reported their vote receipts through yesterday and the net Democrat lead in both categories of early voting totals 3,910. It appears that Nye has about 2,700 new votes to report including over 1,700 mail-ins. Republican votes cast in that County are running about 2:1 in favor.

  465. Mr.Vito says:

    Day5 update

    For EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 1.5%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 8.9% after Day 5.

  466. Todd McCain says:

    471. I am getting the lead at 3243 from the NV SOS site.

  467. Todd McCain says:

    GOP won yesterday in Nevada statewide.

  468. Mr.Vito says:

    All EV and VBM is in that result now, except for two tiny red counties that won’t change the numbers.

  469. Todd McCain says:

    GOP effectively has won the last three days; just by very narrow margins.

  470. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is a new Florida Poll by Grey Television:

    Governor- DeSantis(R) +3
    Senate- Scott(R) -1

    https://www.wctv.tv/content/news/Latest-poll-Florida-gov-senate-races-neck-and-neck-498545201.html

  471. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, I mentioned last night that VBM in Clark has actually doubled over what is reported on NVSOS site. Ds have a small lead of about 100 votes. (a gain of only about 500)

    I calculated that from the raw voter comma delimited file.

  472. NYCmike says:

    Agree with Todd McCain – Kelly will collect lots of $$$, and I am happy for her, as she is taking it from NBC, and not FOX.

  473. Phil says:

    So exactly where are the Nevada early voting numbers compared to 2016 and what do they mean?

  474. Todd McCain says:

    Also, what is with these 1700 ballots from Nye county??

  475. Mr.Vito says:

    481 They are in.

  476. Todd McCain says:

    Didn’t like MD at all; extremely condescending.

  477. Mr.Vito says:

    “So exactly where are the Nevada early voting numbers compared to 2016 and what do they mean?”

    See 472.

    It means if Heller wins independents by 10% like he has before, and some polls show, he is winning by about 1000 votes after Day5.

  478. NYCmike says:

    “Didn’t like MD at all; extremely condescending.”

    -I would gladly buy MD a beer or 2, as I politely recount the joy of November 8, 2016, and how absolutely WRONG he was.

    That would make even a Coors Light taste good!

  479. Todd McCain says:

    But am I right Mr. Vito that the GOP has won the last three days, just by narrow margins?

  480. Phil says:

    ‘Winning by 1000’ as of right now Before the rest of early voting and Election Day voting? Right?

  481. John says:

    What some are forgetting with regard to Nevada is that there are over 40,000 indies that have already ev’d, absentee mail-ins that must be accounted for.
    Which way did they vote?

  482. Mr.Vito says:

    487 Yes, Phil.

  483. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #482
    Thanks, Mr. Vito.
    With the returns from Nye County in Nevada, the # of Dem. votes to GOP votes as of yesterday nets to 3,243.

  484. Mr.Vito says:

    “What some are forgetting with regard to Nevada is that there are over 40,000 indies…”

    See 484.

  485. Skippy says:

    I do believe the person who is sending these devices is probably some right wing nut job.

    But I’m going to throw this fact out here.

    Everyone who has received a device in the mail has been targeted in political speeches by Trump.

    It’s also true everyone of these individuals who have received a device in the mail also supported Hillary over Bernie.

    Every.Single.Person.

    And who detests DWS more than Bernie Bro’s?

    I think we are going to find it was a unhinged right wing nut job living in Florida who did this act of terrorism. But I do think there is a slight chance some unhinged Bernie Bro who still holds grievances against the DNC night have tried this as well.

    If you read Bernie Bro’s message boards they can’t stand CNN, Soros, Waters, De Niro, DWS, Clinton’s..etc..etc.

    Something to think about.

  486. Mr.Vito says:

    “But am I right Mr. Vito that the GOP has won the last three days, just by narrow margins?”

    I’m not sure about each day because I didn’t keep ttack, but even if Clark is spotted those 555 votes, my recollection was that the lead was 3804 votes earlier this week and would be 3798 now.

  487. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #477
    In the new Florida Poll noted in above #477, the pollster states that Panhandle Counties were NOT included in the polling so the overall bottom line results should be better for the Republican candidates.

  488. jason says:

    I am pretty sure Scott will outpoll DeSantis.

    So a poll showing DeSantis up and Scott down makes no sense to me.

  489. jason says:

    It’s hard not to be condescending when you are an A-hole.

  490. Mr.Vito says:

    ” the pollster states that Panhandle Counties were NOT included in the polling so the overall bottom line results should be better for the Republican candidates.”

    Did that include Leon? If so it is a wash depending on the specific counties.

  491. Phil says:

    Guys, I just went back and looked at the 2016 Nevada exit polls and Trump carried independents 50-36.

    I had always heard that Nevada indies leaned right. That’s good news for Heller. Right?

  492. Mr.Vito says:

    (Leon is Tallahassee)

  493. ReadyFirst says:

    Mine

  494. jason says:

    What some are forgetting with regard to Nevada is that there are over 40,000 indies that have already ev’d, absentee mail-ins that must be accounted for.
    Which way did they vote?”

    I think Rs have an advantage of 2.634% among that group.

    I hereby take responsibility if I am wrong.

  495. gameboy says:

    #494…..That explains why the recent FL polls have showed DeSantis and Scott getting crushed. Total garbage when they are missing a whole section of the state. To anyone on this site who really believes DeSantis will lose to Gillum…..there a bridge in London I can sell you.

  496. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #497
    Mr. Vito,here are the non-polled Florida Counties in the WCTV Poll:

    “Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original ?eld dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties.”

  497. Mr.Vito says:

    In 2012, Heller won self-described independents by 20 per exit polls.

    That is how he won where others failed that year.

  498. Mr.Vito says:

    “Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original ?eld dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties.”

    Leon yes, but Bay no? Incredibly good for GOP.

  499. Mr.Vito says:

    Trump would have gained probably 70000-100000 margin in the counties you listed.

  500. Mr.Vito says:

    I overestimated how many are in bay… let’s say 50000.

  501. phoenixrisen says:

    From Ralston’s blog, latest entry:

    Most of Day 5 data is in.
    Rurals still helping GOP mitigate losses in Clark and Dem push in Washoe. Bottom line: Nye County absentee ballots finally apportioned by party and GOP won state Wednesday, so Dems lost 600 off statewide ballot lead.
    Latest statewide totals (missing two small rurals):
    A little more than 219,000 have voted early or by absentee. That’s about 15 percent.
    Dems lead by just under 4 points in early voting and Repubs lead by 17 points in absentees, where more keep coming in and the margin is now more than 4,000. This is truly remarkable.
    Overall: 41.5 percent, Dems; 40 percent, Republicans. The GOP turnout edge has knocked about 3 and a half points off the Dem reg edge, which is 5 points. Again I say: See why voter registration matters.
    Dem statewide ballot lead is 3,200.
    Clark breakdown coming soon. Some interesting stuff there.

    The pattern there looks like status quo which would be good news for the GOP. Like Ohio, Nevada is a good bellweather, especially this mid-term election. Not seeing any wave here. The area to watch will be the Midwest stretching to Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

  502. ReadyFirst says:

    All that matters about this article, is every headline in FL has the words Gillum and FBI probe in it. Stick a fork in him.
    https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/10/24/ron-desantis-slams-andrew-gillum-broadway-date/1749153002/

  503. EML says:

    Yesterday’s Arizona ballots just dropped. For a second straight day, Republican advantage was less than 9 points, so overall Republican lead down slightly to 11.4%

  504. Mr.Vito says:

    FOX: Grassley seeks DOJ probe of Avenatti, Swetnick over Kavanaugh claims

  505. jason says:

    LOL

    “I am not the subject of an FBI investigation, neither is my city. There is no proof to substantiate that. But my opponent goes out of his way to make that case,” said Gillum. “I receive my ticket from my brother. The problem that I have is I should have asked more questions to make sure that everything that had transpired was above board.”

  506. jason says:

    There are about 30 holes in that statement, hard to know where to start.

  507. EML says:

    492 – I don’t think it’s a Florida person. At least 3 of the targets (Brennan, Soros, and Hillary) were in the NYC area and I believe the Soros one and the Brennan one were hand delivered and not mailed. It is someone in the 85% liberal democratic NYC area.

  508. jason says:

    At least he admits to having a “problem”.

  509. Mr.Vito says:

    So we’ve gone from: Even asking me about it is racist.

    To: I didn’t know it was illegal.

  510. jason says:

    Dems to say its a “witchhunt” in 3 2, 1…..

  511. DW says:

    Gillum 46%
    DeSantis 47%

    DeSantis internal

  512. jason says:

    To: I didn’t know it was illegal.”

    Well, my brother didn’t know.

  513. Mr.Vito says:

    jason:

    “This trip has been reported on before,” campaign spokesman Geoff Burgan said, “and with 13 days left in the election, this partisan witch hunt, led by one of Rick Scott’s former political appointees, is becoming a sideshow. The mayor paid for his own roundtrip flight to Dubai.”

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article220572925.html

  514. ReadyFirst says:

    Jason – and that headline is from the Tallahassee Democrat. It’s the same gist in all the other newspapers. This is now making it’s way through the facebook voters, so the word is finally out that Gillum is a D bag.

  515. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Hi Phil
    Here are the early vote totals through yesterday in Texas.
    Maybe you can decipher the data, but it looks to me that the highest percentage returns have been in GOP Counties like Brasaria, Galveston,Lubbuck, Williamson, Randall etc.

    What say you?

    https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct24.shtml

  516. Mr.Vito says:

    “The records show Gillum knew well in advance that his out-of-state meetings with Corey could help him network with powerful developers, businessmen and lawyers. That included a trip to New York, where he received a “Hamilton” ticket from an undercover FBI agent, and a trip to the tiny Persian Gulf nation of Qatar.

    In a June 10, 2016, email, for instance, Gillum asked Corey to make a round of introductions.

    “I will be in Miami on Friday, June 17 and am pretty flexible on my scheduling,” Gillum wrote. “I am wondering if you have some folks in S. Florida that you think it would be worth me meeting with, politically?”

    Corey wrote back: “I have a few young lawyers that have a firm in Miami and Lauderdale and they are expanding to NYC, Dubai, and DC. I want you to meet them.”

    In the trip to New York, Corey told him he would be meeting with the local businessmen (undercover FBI agents). And during the trip to Qatar, Gillum ended up socializing with a top Comcast lobbyist.”

    ……………………

    and that is running in the Miami Herald

  517. jason says:

    I think Avenatti just got called a charlatan…

    “When charlatans make false claims to the Committee — claims that may earn them short-term media exposure and financial gain, but which hinder the Committee’s ability to do its job — there should be consequences,” Grassley wrote to Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director Christopher Wray. “These laws exist to ensure there are.”

  518. ReadyFirst says:

    DW, I wasn’t going to post the Desantis internal but here is the link if anyone cares.
    http://floridapolitics.com/archives/278852-ron-desantiss-internal-polling-now-gives-him-slim-lead-over-andrew-gillum

  519. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #510- EML
    Yes, you are correct, but the vote totals toward the GOP increase by thousands per day even if the percentages slide a bit.
    The raw vote total in AZ in favor of the GOP through testerday is over 83,000.

  520. Skippy says:

    EML

    There is definitely weaknesses in my theory. But I’m stuck on the fact that the person(s) used DWS address as the fake return address.

    Why choose DWS?

    I believe it’s because this nut job lives in her district..or close to it. His/her activity is definitely up in NYC…so I could be dead ass wrong.

  521. jason says:

    DeSantis should call for Gillum to resign.

    The Dems always do that, time for some retribution.

  522. DW says:

    Its been a while since we have seen a poll of either MN_02 or MN_03. Most of the internal polling showed tight races, and SUSA showed a slim Tilt D sort of lead in both races, but then along came Siena to show blow-outs in each, and these races were then considered settled. But the margin on SUSA’s poll of MN_01 isn’t much different, and so I wonder if either MN_02 or MN_03 might still be in play. By the way, Kos has made recent changes to their predictions and they chose to leave both of these seats as Tossups.

  523. ReadyFirst says:

    523. Mr Vito. Great catch. Makes me wanna say WTF!

  524. Mr.Vito says:

    lisab has a point…

    I mean, the targets seem more like a parody of a conservatives top targets

    CNN, Obama, Hillary, Waters, Brennan, Soros

  525. jason says:

    If you were a right wing terrorist, wouldn’t you send a dummy bomb to the WH also to cover your tracks.

    Of course if they were geniuses they probably wouldn’t be terrorists.

  526. jason says:

    It’s strange we don’t get information on whether these bombs were actually “viable” and triggered.

    Because if they are dummies it would increase the chance its not a right winger and just designed for political impact.

  527. jason says:

    The powder is already deemed to be harmless.

  528. Mr.Vito says:

    “It’s strange we don’t get information on whether these bombs were actually “viable” and triggered.”

    Maybe they don’t want to give away any progress in the investigation.

  529. jason says:

    I have my doubts these bombs were designed to detonate, merely from the fact that if they were its hard to believe all 9 were duds.

  530. jason says:

    535. That’s the only explanation, because I am sure they know the answer.

  531. jason says:

    As it stands, this is win win for the left.

    Nobody got hurt, and MSM has a field day blaming Trump.

    Let’s see if it changes.

  532. DW says:

    MSM wasn’t at all concerned about who on the left was to blame when the guy grabbed a rifle and started shooting up the Republican baseball practice.

  533. Mr.Vito says:

    Some here have mentioned Ralph Reed.

    I am not good about messages delivered to my phone… I just noticed I was sent three messages from him during the Kavanaugh hearing telling me to call Bill Nelson.

    I have no idea how they have my number… I wonder if they will be sending voting reminders.

  534. Mr.Vito says:

    “As it stands, this is win win for the left.”

    Maybe… Trump actually seems to be coming out as the grown up right now.

  535. DW says:

    Siena to re-poll CA_25 and IA_03 for what its worth

  536. Mr.Vito says:

    Watch his pressers on the bombs, or the beginning of his Wisconsin rally, eg.

  537. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason GFY twice. I find the Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers and the Trump Worshipping Personality Cult yo have a lot in common.

    As for MD, he did not “lose his job.” He retired from the employer when he was able to do so in order to pursue other opportunities. Healthcare became a personal issue for him when he nearly died from cancer. I am sure his premiums skyrocketed after that.

  538. NYCmike says:

    When did MD almost die from cancer? I never heard about that.

  539. DW says:

    Brilliance from RRH:

    “AZ Data Guy (Garrett) thinks it will hit 2.2 million. I’m with you, i dont see any way we get over 2 million because i think alot of the mail in vote from across the country from both parties is just election day vote cannibalizing. ”

    Sigh. EVERY vote cast early is a vote that cannot be cast on election day. There is no such thing as one party succeeding because their voters are not-cannibalizing, while the other party is failing because they are cannibalizing.

    Nobody outside Philly or Chicago gets to vote more than once.

  540. dblaikie says:

    One thing I have to say as someone who constantly felt MD’s disdain during 2016 — in fact I believe he hated me the most — he still leaves a wide swath. In other words like him or hate he is famous or infamous here at HHR. Makes me wonder why he refuses to come back, except that I think it would have been really hard for him to admit that he was wrong to posters like me. Despite his disdain, I wish him no ill will and hope his health problems are behind him.

  541. dblaikie says:

    You can read quit a bit into the early vote — but not everything. Take my old home state of Nevada, for instance. Heller and Laxalt are going to do far better in Clark than Trump I believe the early vote reveals. Better yet for the GOP the “cow county vote” is energized, energized and energized and that is going to the GOP thousands of votes. On the negative side, if and it is a big if because of union voting, the Washoe County early is predictive at all, Heller at least will not have his 20000 vote margin to cut into Clark. Now that is alot of info that is far better than any poll. I don’t know enough about Florida or other states. But I am very confident in my analysis here.

  542. George says:

    Larry Sabato’s latest Crystal Ball projects the Dems picking up +18 seats in the House which would keep the Republicans with the majority.

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

  543. Todd McCain says:

    The other little county in NV just reported and Ralston said they “found” 250 additional DEM absentee ballots….shady….final lead for DEMS as of yesterday is 3394; GOP won the day in Nevada.

  544. Redmen4ever says:

    It’s all so obvious. Putin’s playing 3.5 D chess. He planted the bombs, making the whole thing look amateurish, and also making sure each one was a dud. He did this because he know the other side would over-react, which would juice our numbers in the Early Vote.

    Ditto the freedom caravan coming up from Central America, Somalia, the Middle East and who know where else. Just to remind everyone why we need a whole.

    Ditto the Kavanaugh hearing, Elizabeth Warren’s DNA test, whathisface’s free tickets to Hamilton, Sinema’s pink tutu, and Montana State’s throwback mail poll.

    It’s all so very obvious to those of us used to 4 D chess.

    But, what’s even more obvious is the leftards falling for it again and again and again. Except for Jill Stein. She had it figured out. Funny, you never hear of Jill Stein any more.

  545. Todd McCain says:

    Ralston said the GOP would feel great if the DEM statewide leading is another less than 15K; doesn’t appear they are getting anywhere near that.

  546. Mr.Vito says:

    “The other little county in NV just reported and Ralston said they “found” 250 additional DEM absentee ballots….shady….final lead for DEMS as of yesterday is 3394; GOP won the day in Nevada.”

    No, they didn’t… they have started putting in those absentees from Clark that I told everyone I had calculated.

  547. Mr.Vito says:

    I have the actual total at 3798.

  548. DW says:

    RCP – ratings change:

    MI_Senate

    Likely D to Lean D.

  549. DW says:

    McLaughlin & Associates – Generic Ballot

    Dem 46
    GOP 44

  550. Skippy says:

    #556

    Oh boy…

  551. DW says:

    Siena declared their OH_01 poll finished today. They got the same R lead of 50/41 that they got the first time they polled it. What a waste. They could have spent their time polling NV_03 or NV_04.

  552. Mr.Vito says:

    ” They got the same R lead of 50/41 that they got the first time they polled it. What a waste.”

    But it confirms the intelligence we got from the GOP that Chabot was secure.

  553. DW says:

    Cook, CNN, Fox, Kos, and Politico all say OH_01 is a Tossup.

  554. DW says:

    Updated Dashboard:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    WV_02 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    TX_10 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    PA_11 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    OR_02 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5
    OH_16 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NC_06 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NC_07 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NV_02 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    MI_02 | | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.5
    KS_04 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5
    WI_08 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    TX_03 | | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    NJ_04 | 68/22 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    MI_03 | 51/33 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    TX_24 | 41/43 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    TX_06 | | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    OH_15 R | | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    PA_14* D | | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NY_02 | running | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | total | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 125 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 126 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    TX_22 | 147 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.6
    TX_02 | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    NY_23 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OK_05 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    CA_22 R | 151 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    NY_21 | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 154 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 155 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 156 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    TX_31 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    AZ_08 R | 158 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    OH_10 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    AK_01 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4
    MO_02 R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    SC_01 R | 164 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 165 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 167 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    OH_14 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    FL_06* R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.3
    FL_18 R | 172 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    CA_21 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    FL_16 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    MI_06 R | 176 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 179 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AR_02 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    NY_27 R | 186 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    VA_05 R | 190 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt D | Lk R | 2.1
    FL_15* R | 191 | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Lk R | 2.1
    PA_10 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_14 R | 195 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_12 R | 196 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.6
    NC_02 R | 197 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    UT_04 R | 198 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | 1.3
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    MN_08* D | 200 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    VA_02 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    FL_26 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    TX_07 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    PA_01 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NJ_03 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    WA_08* R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Ln D | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.1
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    CO_06 R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_16 | 178 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    IL_17 | 166 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    MA_09 | | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    MI_05 | | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NM_01 | 165 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5

    *indicates open seat

  555. Mr.Vito says:

    This Wisconsin rally is excellent.

  556. Scooterboy says:

    Reid Wilson- Repubs lead generic ballot in competitive California districts 49-44.

    If this is true there’s no way the house flips.

  557. NYCmike says:

    Mr. President,

    Are you watching the one from last night?

  558. Mr.Vito says:

    “If this is true there’s no way the house flips.”

    If it includes CA-49 it is even more huge.

  559. Mr.Vito says:

    “Mr. President,

    Are you watching the one from last night?”

    Governor… but yes.

    Trump, Walker, and Vukmir have really been excellent in scoring major points.

  560. DW says:

    565 – exactly the thought I was thinking…would be great to know what they consider competitive. They might include literally every red seat in the state.

  561. NYCmike says:

    “Governor… but yes.”

    -LOL!

    Must be that new Downy Fresh scent!

  562. Redmen4ever says:

    OH01: I count four recent polls – Siena II R+8, Siena I R+9, Am Viewpoint [R] R+9, and GBA [D] D-2.

    This adds up to Probable R.

  563. DW says:

    OR_02 – Dem internal

    McLeod-Skinner (D) 40%
    Walden (R) 49%

    So this Democrat finally gets the best poll possible trying to show a close race and its still a -9 hole.

    And Politico calls this one just ‘Likely R’

  564. scooterboy says:

    You’ll have to forgive me if this is a stupid question, but I’ve been out of the political loop for awhile.

    I’ve been reading a lot about Republicans possibly canniballizing their election day vote by voting early.

    If every vote counts as one vote, why does it matter when the vote is cast? Whether it is an early vote or an election day vote, it’s going to count the same. So is there really such a thing as cannabillizing votes?

  565. jaichind says:

    RCP Trump approval now at 44.7 and getting close to crossing 45. If it gets to 45 it would be the highest level on RCP since Feb 2017.

  566. DW says:

    571-I have been making that point throughout this week ever since early voting started.

  567. jaichind says:

    @571 @573
    I think cannibalizing votes is relevant in the sense that we are all assuming that election vote will lean R which is not as true this year if many election day voters voted EV instead.

  568. Mr.Vito says:

    The other school of thought, though, is that early vote is more a measure of motivation in general.

    The more votes you get out (and remember, the names and addresses are known), the better your side can strategize where to target voters for election day.

  569. Mr.Vito says:

    For Democrats, its easy. You just go into the biggest population center with a bus. The GOP has to spread out.

  570. DW says:

    575 – that makes sense. On election night 2016 Huckabee on Fox News said all Trump supporters needed was the date of the election. Clinton supporters needed to be given a sandwich, a shot of whiskey, and a ride to the polls.

  571. EML says:

    Yeah, the theory is that Democrats have historically done well with the early vote while Republicans do much better on Election Day. Republicans are overperforming historically across the board. The question is whether or not this changes the Election Day math. If not, Dems are screwed.

  572. dblaikie says:

    There are some things that deserve a boom on this site. In the last week of August EPIC-MRA has Stabenow +23 in their poll which finished October 23 it was Stabeow +11. This for all the Michigan skeptics — BOOM!

  573. dblaikie says:

    I mean Debbie plus 7

  574. DW says:

    PA_10 seems to be getting by far the best response rate among Siena’s polls. Just 7000 calls have yielded 352 responses.

  575. lisab says:

    As for MD, he did not “lose his job.” He retired from the employer when he was able to do so in order to pursue other opportunities.
    ————————-

    yeah i did that too that time i dropped a case of johnny walker at applebees

    i retired and pursued other opportunities

  576. lisab says:

    If every vote counts as one vote, why does it matter when the vote is cast? Whether it is an early vote or an election day vote, it’s going to count the same.
    ————————-

    it not only shows motivation, but it spurs motivation

    i have not heard from anyone but corey and robbie that the gop vote has been less than expected. most people seem to be saying the gop is doing at LEAST ok.

    if you are a snowflake and you are wondering if you should vote, hearing your side is already losing plays a big part.

  577. lisab says:

    (riiiiinnnnnnnnggggg … riiiiinnnnnnnnggggg)

    lisab: hello, us post office…. no senator warren, we still have not received any packages for you…. yes, i’m sure…. nope … nothing…. no packages…. we’ll call you the moment anything arrives …. yes, i know who you are …. have a good day …

  578. JeffP says:

    Michigan is looking interesting for sure. Obama going to Detroit to drumming for black votes. You know what that means? There is D trouble brewing.

    I would not be surprised if DJT does two rally’s in one day in
    Michigan. Macomb County and GR area. I would love to see
    Kanye join him and watch D heads explode.

  579. Florida Guy says:

    Trend?

    DeSantis +3
    Scott -1

    https://www.wcjb.com/content/news/WCJB-Gray-TV-poll–498568981.html

    Eight hurricane counties exempted from poll.

  580. janz says:

    1. My underdog picks are 1) James & 2) Housley. Both are edging upwards, & both are good, younger candidates.

    2. By Nov 2016 MD had become a Jakyl/Hyde personality., by changing from a smart, politically savvy poster to an embittered one. He obviously is missed here because people still talk about him. And, I bet he still scrolls through the blog, from time to time, mentally throwing insults at those he disliked and/or who disappointed him by voting for someone he enormously disdained.

    3. The so-called bombs had no pressure trigger, no timer, sulfur with no other chemical mixed in making it inert. They were figuratively harmless except for the fear generated along with greater media/dem spin pointing to Trump as the villain.

  581. Bitterlaw says:

    lisab – Make your jokes. MD was not fired.

  582. Mr.Vito says:

    Mr.Bitter says your MD jokes come up short.

  583. Mr.Vito says:

    MD was unable to reach new heights.

  584. Brandon says:

    Wow, MD. Forgot about him.

  585. Mr.Vito says:

    Not many could measure up to MD.

  586. Mr.Vito says:

    MD had to be stilted at times to make sure he was being noticed.

  587. Cash Cow says:

    MG @343

    WV house flip from R to D?
    Currently 68 to 32 R control….?

    Don’t see that happening..

    Change may be 5-8 seats MAX.
    Or no net R loss.

  588. Mr.Vito says:

    Or he would cut them down to size…

  589. Mr.Vito says:

    MD was always trying to elevate himself.

  590. Bitterlaw says:

    MD was a giant among men. Really short men. Still a giant.

  591. SoHope says:

    Who was your favorite poster here?

    MD was on my short list.

  592. Scooterboy says:

    Lisab….are you sure Warren would be communicating via telephone?
    I was thinking more along the lines of smoke signals.

  593. NYCmike says:

    https://pjmedia.com/trending/tech-community-outraged-after-sqlite-founder-adopts-christian-code-of-conduct/

    -This should be of interest to several HHR readers.

    Funny line: “I get the sense that the current CoC fad is an attempt to impose culture,” he observed. “The question then is ‘whose culture?'” The answer, he said, is mostly “San Francisco Democrat” culture. “I suppose that can be either good or bad depending on your politics,” he said.”

  594. Brandon says:

    Oh, he’s short. I get it now.

  595. janz says:

    MD was my favorite poster until he wasn’t.

  596. Scooterboy says:

    MD was always one of my favorite posters. It’s sad that he ventured over to the dark side.

    I’d put him right up there with Jason, Bitter, Mr. Vito, DW, Wes, and the cow.

  597. mnw says:

    This may have been mentioned, but McCaskill has a radio ad up saying:

    “She’s not one of those crazy Democrats!”

    As for Donnelly, I hear he put on his Donald Trump costume well before Halloween arrives.

  598. SoHope says:

    What about Bunu?

  599. Scooby77 says:

    Or Polaris. That dude had me thinking McCain had a shot.

  600. phoenixrisen says:

    I am stoked about John James closing like he is. That was my dark horse race. Stabenow’s support is soft and if a viable GOP candidate has popped up which James is, she very well could be in trouble. No coincidence that the VP and Obama are making stops there.

  601. Brandon says:

    Polaris was the absolute worst.

  602. lisab says:

    Not many could measure up to MD.
    ——————————-

    otoh, not many looked up to him

  603. lisab says:

    i remember how shocked i was when i heard md was pickpocketed.

    i didn’t know that anyone could stoop so low.

  604. Dylan says:

    How does the former VP and POTUS going to MI move the needle with Stabenow against James? She is per se one of the least inspiring speakers I have seen. Is their methodology that because Biden and Obama are so “inspiring”, people will vote for Stabenow?

  605. Mr.Vito says:

    At least MD never had to struggle to put food on the table.

    Kim did it for him.

  606. Tgca says:

    362

    I figured it out! Jadon’s wife has upped his life insurance coverage while feeding him tons of fatty bacon, pork, potatoes, and sugary desserts followed by multiple cups of high caffeine coffee.

    “Here honey, have some more fatty bacon, and don’t forget an extra big slice of pie and 2 more cups of coffee…and remember dear, mama Jadon loves you.”

  607. Mr.Vito says:

    Mr.Bitter buys death insurance.

  608. mnw says:

    Tg

    If drinking lots of coffee shortens one’s life, I guess I must’ve died 5 years ago.

  609. NYCmike says:

    Getting ready for my first colonoscopy…….overjoyed to see that in the last week before going in for the ol’ roto-rooter, expresso/black coffee was actually on the OK list……not so sure about the anisette/sambuca, but one has to live a little.

  610. mnw says:

    Scott is down 9-points in the NYT/Siena poll now in progress.

    Pollwise, today has kind of been the lull before the storm.

    The trolls have been mercifully absent today, too. (Vichey, corr-eee & three iii’s to be here in three…two…one)

    Whoever mentioned Bunu did a very bad thing! That’s a name that should NEVER be invoked. Shudder.

  611. Bitterlaw says:

    MD showed us that the size of the A-hole does not matter. Big or small, A-holes get the job done.

  612. mnw says:

    NYC

    Remember to ask the doc if he enjoys his work.

  613. Bitterlaw says:

    My colonoscopy is scheduled for December 28th. Might as well end the year right.

  614. NYCmike says:

    When I met him last week, he winked at me…..not sure if I was supposed to wink back…..

  615. Tgca says:

    446 NYC

    Be nice to my friend Bitter. He’s showing me all the cool gay places to hang in Philly, got me into flower shows, and taking me to shops for sweaters.

    As for MD and Author. My mortal enemies. Author is young and immature so we’ll give him time to grow. MD just seems like a miserable unhappy sick demented angry man. His little hissy fits here are classic. I think he should invest in rope and a chair and be done with it. Worst poster EVAH on HHR imho.

  616. Scooterboy says:

    Had my first colonoscopy back in April. Found a couple of polyps, so I’m on the 3 year plan.

  617. Tgca says:

    459 Lisa

    I agree. Her greed and anti-Trump antics backfired.

    I almost feel bad for her but she gets to keep her $69M contract so maybe she’ll be ok me thinks.

  618. Tgca says:

    624 Scooter

    Congrats. I had one a few years ago. It was awesome! Clear and clean so I can go 7 years docs said.

    Perhaps if you lay off the scooter you’ll heal quicker.

  619. Tina says:

    From @RalstonReports “Heller is beating the reg advantage for Dems by almost 3 points. So if the NYT crosstabs are correct …including Latino numbers & Heller up by 9 among indies — if the Dems don’t have a 3 percent edge once the early/mail ballots are done, Rosen is in trouble
    5:51 PM – 25 Oct 2018

  620. mnw says:

    This is startling to me. Read this & then stop & think about all the damn blue wave polls.

    The FIRST thing you need to think about is that 2016 WAS A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, not a midterm, & Trump kicked adz. (It was in the newspapers).

    Now, from MSNBC:

    “Current nationwide total of early & absentee ballots received, 8,157,000, EXCEEDS THE 2016 TOTAL BY OVER 200,000 for the same time period…. thus far, the GOP is estimated to have received 44% & the Democrats 40% of these early votes, a change compared to 2016 when DEMs were outpacing the GOP.”

    on.msnbc.com/2ELRp1t

    Hello there Larry Schweikart!

  621. NYCmike says:

    “Found a couple of polyps,”

    -Funny place to leave them, no?

    And you midwesterners call us coastal people crazy!

  622. mnw says:

    I had my first colonoscopy right after President Grant died, as I recall.

  623. Phil says:

    Colonoscopies.

    Really slow night on a political side.

  624. TIna says:

    SchweikartReplying to @JimColl5
    Follow
    Montgomery Co, absentees are at R+3000 after allocating all “unaffiliated” voters. Montgomery is a “swingy” county that voted for Zero x 2, Kerry, Gore, Clinton x 2, and Trump. We used this county to accurately project the 2016 statewide victory. So, I’d say good.
    6:22 PM – 25 Oct 2018

  625. Tina says:

    Anything new on Muh bombs.

  626. Tina says:

    Upchuck Todd blames the muh bombs on the Russians. Where are the Jebots to voice support for this belief?

  627. NYCmike says:

    https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/25/msnbc-katy-tur-angry-guest-left-wing-violence/

    -Maybe Katy Tur should speak to her father, who threatened Ben Shapiro when Shapiro called him “Sir”.

  628. Bitterlaw says:

    I thought Kelly’s debate question about women was a great and appropriate question. It probably started him on the road to the nomination. I hope she is a debate moderator in 2020 and asks it again (after she asks about the death penalty if Kitty Dukakis is raped and murdered).

  629. ReadyFirst says:

    I have a client that wrote one word on each butt cheek before his procedure. GO GATORS! He said Dr. Thought it was funny.

  630. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt said he has had 99 colonoscopies…and his next one is free.

    WVU whooping up on the Baylor…

  631. Bitterlaw says:

    Tg’s doctor said he could wait 7 years for the next colonoscopy? So many jokes……

  632. Cash Cow TM says:

    Finding a couple of polyps is better than finding
    a couple of trolyps.

  633. Tgca says:

    Now that I think of it, I had both a colonoscopy and an endoscopy by the same doctor, though clearly not at the same time.

    Hmmm…I wonder if they use different scopes in these procedures.

  634. Bitterlaw says:

    I remember when Author called Tgca a “queen.” I thought Author saying that was more gay than Tg being gay.

  635. Cash Cow TM says:

    Tina,

    I am still working on da bombs.
    I will fill you I. Whe. I discover something.

  636. Mr.Vito says:

    627 Ralston keeps copying me.

    We have a spy.

  637. Tgca says:

    642

    …and I remember Author having a hissy fit for days about someone here being racist when they called him Pablo or Pedro or whatever. Hypocrite could dish it out but not take it. But clearly HHR has evolved just like Hillary and so many others who now love the gays oh so much.

    I still remember my homophobic and racist neighbors and teachers in my liberal Dem town during high school but now they are the champions for gay rights. Again, hypocrites. I have a long memory you b*tches!

  638. jaichind says:

    More updates on CA early voting at
    http://wheresthepartydoc.blogspot.com/2018/10/california-vbm-ballot-update.html

    It seems whereas Dems hope to pick up 6 GOP seats this analysis seems to indicate 1 or at worst 2. If so that seems more consistent with a total Dem pickup in the House of 10-15 seats than 35-45 seats.

  639. ReadyFirst says:

    TGCA. Funny, I say that all the time. Just about every true racist I’ve ever met has been a democrat.

  640. Bitterlaw says:

    My father-in-law was a Democrat and pretty racist. Of course, he was from Boston so he had no choice.

  641. EML says:

    644 – get used to it. Sean Trende has been stealing from me for years

  642. Tina says:

    I am sure Britt Bush Hume will “hire” Mayhem.

  643. Tina says:

    Vitoston.

    HHR’s one and only NV specialist.

  644. Tina says:

    Yes NV Indies are like me, lean Far Right.

    I left the R party due to a 1000 points of liberalism, tax increasses, in addition to CA Rs having Rino tendencies.

  645. Tgca says:

    647 Ready

    You say:

    I have a long memory b*tches too?

    I thought only Bitter and me were bitter Catholics with long memories.

    I’m sure if I knew Bitter in high school he would call me f*ggot too in order to deflect attention from his sweater collection and interest in flower shows.

    Jadon would just probably say “dame tocino m*aricon! His engwish was not so good back then.

  646. Bitterlaw says:

    I did not use that language in high school or ever. I admit that I owned 2 sweaters in high school but my girlfriend gave them to me.

  647. michael corleone says:

    Looks like GOP will gain 700 votes in Washoe today. Please check me Vito.

  648. Mr.Vito says:

    A little over 600 in Washoe…

  649. Mr.Vito says:

    Just some of the Little Reds also netted GOP about 1200 today.

  650. Scooby77 says:

    Vito, what will that leave us for the overall deficit?

  651. Mr.Vito says:

    The raw absentee Clark data has another huge dump from today. In total, it show Ds leading by about 900 votes. The nvsos currently put up more of them and has GOP leading by 210. I assume they have to reject some of these ballots, so that it lags behind what the raw file says. But, at least it gives you an idea. GOP and DEM basically tying in Clark VBM.

  652. Phil says:

    So Heller looking good in Nevada?

    That’s the vibe I am getting from Ralston anyway.

  653. Mr.Vito says:

    Heller is looking good so far, Phil, unless independents swing way toward blue or unless there is a huge dropoff in GOP vote toward or on election day.

  654. Scooby77 says:

    Mr. Vito likely knows, but I know there is a rule of thumb on the number of votes the Dems need to be ahead going into election day to win. I thought the magic number was 30,000, but I might be off.

    At the current rate (knock on wood), I don’t know that they come close to 30,000 in a week and a few days.

  655. Scooby77 says:

    OK, going into today, Dems were ahead 3,500.

  656. Mr.Vito says:

    Currently, the lead in NV for Ds is 1631 votes out of about 240000.

  657. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is Jon Ralston’s take on today’s Washoe County votes:

    “Republicans have finally turned the tide in Washoe, winning today by 200 votes. And won by 400 in absentees. Good day for GOP in the North.”
    Combined totals:
    Dems — 21,594
    Repubs — 20,885

  658. Tina says:

    Those little red (rural) counties can help at the margin.

    Looks like we are blunting the d gains in Clark, doing what we are supposed to be doing in Washoe, and cleaning up in the little red counties.

  659. Mr.Vito says:

    Clark has been netting between 2000-2500 on weekdays, which will show up by about 12:45 EST usually, and then the rest of the little reds will report tomorrow.

  660. Tgca says:

    654

    Bitter’s girlfriend Jimmy gave him 2 sweaters in high school. Hmmm…

    …and he NEVER used such language either?

    Ha!!! Prove it! Prove to us you never used such language 35 years ago. Guilty until proven innocent.

  661. Jayhawker says:

    The thirty counties that haven’t reported early votes in Florida gave Trump a net margin of 487,256 votes. 29 of the 30 counties voted from Trump by substantial margins. If they reported early votes the Republicans would be winning early voting by a large margin.

  662. NYCmike says:

    “TGCA. Funny, I say that all the time. Just about every true racist I’ve ever met has been a democrat.”

    -Lived in San Francisco for 3-1/2 years……found that town the most racially, sexually-oriented, and income-level divided place I have ever visited…..BUT, if you were a Republican, they ALL hated you!

  663. Scooby77 says:

    Excellent news, as Ralston just updated his write up by saying Elko and Douglas came in with a whopping 3,700 lead in those two counties. His words:

    “The rurals are real, and for the GOP, they are spectacular.”

    Love it.

  664. Mr.Vito says:

    At this point one side or the other looks to be gravely disappointed when the returns come in. Hope it is the Dems.

  665. Scooby77 says:

    Here’s the one thing that concerns me: the Arizona senate race. I want Heller to win, don’t get me wrong. But gun to the head and forced to choose, I’d much rather have McSally beat Sinema. She’s a war-protesting anti-American treasonous fraud.

  666. Victrc says:

    NYC where in SF did you live? During 2010 election wife and I lived on Lombard, on the crooked street where everyone lined up to take pics. I kept a running total of the seats changing to GOP in the window wheee everyone could see,…and a fire Pelosi sign. It was awesome.

  667. ReadyFirst says:

    653. Tgca. I grew up in FL. As you know, we don’t use sweaters here. But I have a long memory, and hold on to stuff too long I’m told. Meh!

  668. Redmen4ever says:

    Hillary has been informed, everything is going fine in Wisconsin and Michigan. No need to fly out to either of those godforsaken places. If things change, we can always send Little Timmy.

  669. NYCmike says:

    Victrc,

    I lived there back in late 90’s.

    On Powell and Union in North Beach, and in the Inner Sunset District (3rd and Hugo). LOVED IT!

    Instead of Lombard, I would take friends down Filbert Street a couple blocks over, which was very steep, with my 1978 Volkswagen bus, where it felt like you would go thru the front window if you didn’t have your seat belt on. (I believe that was the street where Letterman would roll things down when he did his shows out there).

    I probably should have gotten my brakes checked a couple times before I did that…….

  670. Victrc says:

    Nyc. Know the area well. As a kid I lived in Hyde and Washington and went to middle school,in the marina. We moved back and forth between nyc and sf growing up.

    It’s changed so much over the years. It was the homelessness and vagrancy that pushed us out (and price) which brought this ny’er To Texas!… that and the wife who is a born and bread Texan and who I couldn’t get out.. tried nyc. Eastern shore. Mountains of SoCal and Lombard…and after 6 months in each she wanted back home. Lol

  671. Tgca says:

    NYC

    Where in San Fran? I lived there 14 years in Pacific Heights a block down from Lafayette Park where Danielle Steele has the old Spreckels mansion.

    https://sf.curbed.com/2014/11/25/10018636/behind-the-hedges-and-inside-the-history-of-danielle-steels-spreckels

  672. lisab says:

    Texas election officials report complaints from voters who say machines flipped votes (star-telegram.com)

  673. lisab says:

    Beto O’Rourke Earns the Endorsements of Texas’ Two Largest Newspapers (gq.com)

  674. lisab says:

    Georgia Dems say more than 4,700 voter applications are missing (thehill.com)

  675. gameboy says:

    #673 It’s apparent at this point the Dems will very disappointed. Their behavior during the Kavanaugh period sealed their fate. The caravan and the bomb thing have put the nail in the coffin. Regarding the bomb thing……anyone with a brain can clearly see it’s an attempted set up by one or more of the crazy lefties out there.

  676. Victrc says:

    TGCA. Where in pacific heights did you live. For awhile I was on Greenwich and laguna, then Hyde and Washington. Then later on on Lombard at the base of the crooked street (best condo I ever had). Also lived on the peninsula for about 7 years or so.

  677. Tgca says:

    Vic

    I was at Clay near Franklin. Washington a block over but Hyde was over the Russian Hill.

    When did you last live there?

  678. Victrc says:

    Lisa….doesn’t matter. All newspapers here in TX aleays endorse the D. Never fails.. Wendy Davis got all the endorsements….which got her 41% on Election Day.. Robert Francis fake Beto is on his way to a solid 42.5%.

    Bet scittlebut here is that he’s not sharing his
    ‘Campaign fortune” because he’s going to Segway straight into a campaign for the D prez nomination.

  679. Tgca says:

    I left SF for the south east bay near Silicon Valley. Lived in the burbs by the mountains for about 6 years after SF.

  680. NYCmike says:

    I lived above a sports bar on Powell, between Green and Union, right down the block from Beach Blanket Babylon.

    If either of you were there in late 90’s, early 2000’s, I worked at the Pasta Pomodoro restaurant chain. Had a great time, lots of livin’ in those 3+ years!

    I loved the Sunset district as well, biking and skating in Golden Gate Park just about every day.

  681. NYCmike says:

    WOW! All those street names bring back lots of memories…..!

    It was a great town to be 25-30 years old!

  682. mnw says:

    Red 678

    Funny, but you forgot something…

    “Who the hell wants to go to PITTSBURGH, for God’s sake, in late OCTOBER, to talk to a bunch of deplorable, unemployed steelworkers? They’ll vote for me anyway. What the hell else are they going to do?

    Dewars, straight up. A double, please. Water back.”

  683. NYCmike says:

    Every time friends/relatives came out, we went to Beach Blanket Babylon, Alcatraz, Napa, and with a couple of them, the peep shows off of Columbus.

    What a hoot!

    The sports bar I lived above for a year…..the first 4 months, it was 10 Irish guys, and me, in a 1-bedroom apartment. Worked every day, bombed just about every night, laughing to the bank because I paid $100 rent each month! AWESOME!

  684. Victrc says:

    TGCA…. that’s amazing. I lived on Sacramento and Filmore as a kid for six months and played in Lafayette.. we used to go on adventures through the eucalyptus trees and swing on the big swings they have there. I loved it

    Last time I lived there was in 2011 on crooked street. I lived there in 1980’s as a kid. Some in the 1990’s and from 2002-2004.

  685. Tgca says:

    I was in SF until 2003. I worked in financial district and took cable car at Van Ness and California to work daily.

    Ding! Ding! Goes the trolley.
    Clang! Clang! Went the bell.

  686. Victrc says:

    NYC. Pasta pomodoro.. you’re right SF was great place to be if you were 25. We used to go to north beach pizza all the time then go to the bar across the street. They had a bunch of pool tables in there and we would play and pick up girls lmao!!!

    Small world. And I was there in the 90’s and early 00’s

  687. NYCmike says:

    Great job, gents! I feel like I have 45 degree winds whipping thru my hair right now, as if it is August in San Francisco!

  688. Tgca says:

    I used to take my dog to dog run in Lafayette Park. At night it was very Cruise for gay men. Nasty old ones mostly. Ha!

    Wow! I feel 25 again with all these memories.

  689. NYCmike says:

    Better than surgery, right!?!?

  690. NYCmike says:

    Do either of you know a place in Noe Valley called Chloe’s? Great breakfast place. I would love to go there again.

  691. Tgca says:

    I would go to NB Pizza too. Hung out in that neighborhood. Used to g for drinks in this dive bar right on Columbus.

    I worked In Levi’s Plaza for a bit and would walk up the stairs to the top of Coit Tower after work and then down Through Columbus and up Broadway and over Van Ness to Pac Hts. I did this in a suit and carrying my briefcase. No wonder I had 2 spinal surgeries last year. 🙂

  692. Tgca says:

    Sounds familiar. Me Valley was big lesbians an area so I kept my distance. 🙂

    My fav Chinese restaurant of all time was Eric’s in Noe Valley.

  693. Victrc says:

    Do either of you know red velvet on Polk Kind of a punk dive but we used to go there all the time. We also used to go firehouse 7 or dv8, and the place that had the clear floor over a pool. I always forget the name.

    Ironically growing up I was always called California when I lived in nyc, and NY when I lived in Cali. Too funny

  694. NYCmike says:

    Really a beautiful city…..I hope the stories coming out about the defecation and urination are overblown.

  695. Tgca says:

    I used to go to Johnny Loves every now and then.

  696. Victrc says:

    Wife and I used to go the crepe house for breakfast on Polk. I always had the Miami Heat. It was AMAZING.

  697. NYCmike says:

    Red Velvet – was that along the route for the Bay to Breakers run?

    I need to talk with my buddies that I lived there with…..one of them kept an extensive journal/map/diary of all the places we would go in each city we visited (travel across 24 states) and then stayed (San Fran). It’s about that time!

    CHEERS!

  698. sandiegocitizen says:

    704. There not. It is bad.

  699. Tgca says:

    Polk was my hangout street. I went to shops and restaurants there. I was up and down the street daily. Bobs diner at Polk and Sacramento. The coffee shop next door. I used to go to the Blickbuster on Polk bear Broadway too very often.

  700. mnw says:

    NV SEN:

    538 just moved NV SEN from tossup to Lean R.

    IL-13:

    NYT/Siena nearly complete. Rodney Davis (R-inc) +5. DEMs really thought they could flip this one. Trump will be in nearby Murphysboro, IL on Saturday. I think Davis will win by more than 5, btw, fwiw.

  701. NYCmike says:

    Johnny Loves!

    How about the DNA Lounge?

    I saw Super Diamond (Neil Diamond cover band) there, with a couple of friends who were visiting….one of them became my wife 7 years later!

  702. NYCmike says:

    Speaking about diners….did either of you go to the Grubsteak Diner? Portuguese place that was open late.

    Several times I paid for a prostitutes meal as she rubbed my scalp, as I ate my burger..

  703. Victrc says:

    TGCA. It used to be a great city. It’s not livable any,ore between the cost and the crime and vagrancy. Oh well. Great times there.

  704. NYCmike says:

    Goodnight, gents!

    Thanks for the memories!

  705. Victrc says:

    Omg Super Diamond!!! The lead singer is one of our best friends!!

    And yes I used to go DNA all the time. Doesn’t rob Schneider own it now?

  706. Victrc says:

    Night NYC! Great memories

  707. Tgca says:

    I used to go to the Crepe House. I took my tricks there on Sunday morning, or sometimes my friends too. Ha ha.It was two blocks from my house. At Washington and Polk.

    About a block from there was Panchos Mexican restaurant. My favorite Mexican restaurant in San Francisco. They had awesome chicken soup.

  708. mnw says:

    Is it OK if I talk politics, while you guys wax poetic about a zh*tty* liberal hellhole?

    *Literally. The feces collectors make $110000/per, if u include benefits, I read. Who SAYS communists can’t create good jobs with a future?

  709. Victrc says:

    TGCA. Crazy small world isn’t it. Been coming here for upwards of 14 years I think and didn’t know any of this.

  710. MichiganGuy says:

    “They had awesome chicken soup.”
    .
    Tgca, I thought you were a vegetarian?

  711. Victrc says:

    Mnw…of course. Sorry for the walk down memory lane…still has to be better than a Robbie rant 😉 no offense Robbie

  712. Tgca says:

    The Grubsteak was our choice of diners after the bars. Crazy drunk crowd. I went there nearly weekly after 2AM bars with friends. It was on Pine between Van Ness and Polk.

    I used to go to the 24 Hour Fitness in Van Ness too.

    SF was great small city back then before the dot.com boom ruined it all.

  713. Tgca says:

    Michigan

    I became vegetarian 2 years ago. Prior to that I ate lotsa boneless chicken and occasional burgers, chateaubriand, or filet mignon.

  714. MichiganGuy says:

    Ah ok, I thought I found your except to the rule with chicken soup. LOL

  715. Tgca says:

    Yes Vic, I’ve been here too pretty much from the beginning and was in CA. Back then it was me and Tina on most nights with LisaB too.

  716. Tgca says:

    I have so many fond memories of my 20s and early 30s in SF. I had many buddies I lost touch with over the years. I knew a few that passed too.

    You guys just flooded me with so many fond memories. I will sleep well tonight and dream of them I hope.

    Thanks for that.

  717. mnw says:

    Victrc 722

    Boy, you got THAT right!

    RRH is all gloaty tonight about internals which they claim show Heller losing in NV.

  718. phoenixrisen says:

    710 – Silver is grudgingly seeing the writing on the wall. Starting to wonder about some red bubbling that could grow into a wave. The Rust and Coal Belts could be hinting at that. We’ll see

  719. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena finished CA-10 poll at 47-45 D-R

    The toupees say tossup. Silver says likely D.

    This poll had a disclaimer for weighting for the longest time, just like the FL-27 poll.

  720. sandiegocitizen says:

    Never lived in San Francisco, but often stayed with friends who live near Duboce Park. Beautiful city. But was to claustrophobic for me. Agree with tgca, the tech boom ruined San Francisco. It lost a lot of its unique charm when it began to stink silicon. Now the filth stinks it up.

  721. Mr.Vito says:

    “At the time that a law enforcement official has to go to a weapon, to a gun, to a baton, to a Taser,” then they’ve already gone “too far by their very presence,” he added, according to The Beacon.

    Gillum explained that the trust police instill in the community should “bring most situations to heel” alone.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/andrew-gillum-police-going-too-far-if-they-pull-out-gun-baton-or-stun-gun

  722. Tgca says:

    I had a friend by Dupoce. Cute area. Close to Castro and bars, and the super cruise Safeway on Market St. lol!

    You could go to Safeway for milk, eggs, and meat and then get some more meat. H@. Ha.

  723. ssq says:

    Me Valley was big lesbians an area so I kept my distance”

    Where did the little lesbians hang out?

  724. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like 2183 netted from Clark EV.

  725. sandiegocitizen says:

    Remember the Safeway. Also recollect there was a large gym close by. Was really a nice area. Streetcar wss nice to ride too.

  726. mnw says:

    Vito 732

    Dis-fn-gusting!

    Vito

    Do you have the feeling. as I begin to, that the GOP MAY have turned the corner on the midterms? And almost nobody has zoned in on it yet?

    Pardon me for being both a drunk & a belle lettres aficionado, but… Marlowe/”Tamerlane” :

    “Is it not passing brave,
    To be a king,*
    And ride in triumph through Persepolis?”

    *(Trump)

  727. jason says:

    Looks like Chuck Todd is throwing Avenatti under the bus.. the poor MSM was “mislead” about the allegations against Kavanaugh…

    Chuck Todd
    ?
    @chucktodd

    Was this an intentional attempt to mislead our reporters? Evidence points that way…

  728. jason says:

    Huh, Chuck, never in the history of mankind were reporters more willing to be mislead….

  729. jason says:

    “” figured it out! Jadon’s wife has upped his life insurance coverage while feeding him tons of fatty bacon, pork, potatoes, and sugary desserts followed by multiple cups of high caffeine coffee. ”

    Hmmmmmm…..

  730. Mr.Vito says:

    So the Day 6 lead is 3822 votes, with 9 little red counties yet to report.

    For EV+VBM:

    The Dem ballot advantage is 1.4%
    The Dem voter reg advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, it was 7.9% after Day 6.

  731. jason says:

    GOP sweep?

    “Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson attributes at least part of the recent stock market sell-off to some investors starting to think Republicans are going to keep their majority on Capitol Hill in the November midterm elections.

    Perhaps the market is starting to “sniff out a Republican sweep,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report.” “That would argue more fiscal stimulus, more funding and that would cause rates to spike up.”

  732. jason says:

    I hope some serious money will be spent to show where Gillum really stands on a lot of issues, the guy is a full blown moonbat.

  733. jason says:

    Meanwhile, what did Amoral Scumbag call DeSantis…a bum and a clown…

    Why? Because he supports Trump, no other reason.

    “I think nominating a total bum for governor has really hurt Scott. Just as the TX and TN governor races should help Cruz and Blackburn, I think DeSantis, a clown,…..”

  734. Mr.Vito says:

    “Why? Because he supports Trump, no other reason. ”

    Worse… just because Trump supported him.

    Putnam ran ads night and day here saying how he was all in on Trump.

    DeSantis is ivy league, navy, jag… he is not a bum.

  735. mnw says:

    I thought the debate was good for DeSantis, ugly though it was.

    The MS guy’s analysis seems like a stretch to me. A more conventional rationale would be 1) The Fed raising interest rates too fast; 2) some unexpectedly poor earnings reports, i.e., Netflix; & 3) high PE ratios, by historical measurements.

    Whenever anybody posits that the market is about to go up or down? I skip the article, because… I don’t think anyone knows.

  736. jason says:

    New course at Harvard, you can’t make this sh-t up…

    “This seminar will assess the challenges for democracy under law, for human rights, and for fact-based government posed by the successful strategies of [Kentucky Republican Sen. Mitch] McConnell, Trump, and Kavanaugh — and will explore ways of using constitutional law and politics to push back against those strategies.”

  737. jason says:

    Successful strategy of Kavanaugh?

    LOL

  738. MichiganGuy says:

    This is sickening! Racist Donald Trump Jr. forcing AA to chant USA.
    .
    https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1055622965587599360

  739. jason says:

    Avenatti thinks the Dem nominee in 2020 should be a white male.

    Why?

    “When you have a white male making the arguments, they carry more weight,” he says.

  740. jason says:

    Imagine a Republican saying that….

  741. jason says:

    Obama hardest hit.

  742. mnw says:

    Well… Avenatti is a white male, & he’s running, right? I hope he gets the DEM nomination.

  743. jason says:

    I really think Avenatti helped confirm Kavanaugh.

    The “ran a gang rape ring” accusation was so off the wall it solidified the perception that this was all an orchestrated hit job on Kavanaugh.

  744. jason says:

    Sorry, mnw, I don’t think he survives that statement….

    His opponents will skewer him with it.

  745. jason says:

    I can’t believe it will be breakfast time in about 4 hours.

  746. mnw says:

    It was intended as a joke.

    McCaskill’s radio ad:

    “Yep. She works hard in the middle. She’s not one of those crazy Democrats.”

    According to The Washington Times, McC’s campaign refused comment when asked to identify “the crazy Democrats” to whom her ads refers.

    God… I hate her with the hate of 10,000 burning suns.

  747. jason says:

    Hawley needs to run an ad asking her who the crazies are.

  748. jason says:

    I agree. McCaskill is one of the more loathsome Democrats in Senate. Almost as bad as Richard Blumenthal.

  749. mnw says:

    Well, not a bad idea, although her hateful “crazy” ad is ONLY running in rural central MO,* nowhere else.

    * my hometown area

  750. John says:

    Clark County, Nevada is showing signs of diminishing or slowing down with regard to the blue firewall.
    D’s………….44.77%
    R’s………….36.18%
    Difference…….8.59%
    Below the generally accepted benchwater mark of 10% for D’s to win the state.

  751. mnw says:

    Obviously, based on her “crazy DEMs” ad, she thinks the folks I grew up with in west central Missouri are sub delta morons.

    She might be right. Stay tuned.

    I voted today. I’m thinking ANOTHER check to Hawley. My kids don’t really need to go to college.

  752. Bitterlaw says:

    Sorry I missed all those great San Francisco memories.

    Gayest thread ever.

  753. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – College tuition? You’re old. Not Walt old but old. Did you get married late or is this the trophy wife?

  754. MichiganGuy says:

    Texas
    .
    Governor:
    .
    Abbott (R) 56%
    Valdez (D) 37%
    .
    Cruz (R) 51%
    O’Rourke (D) 45%
    .
    UT/TT poll
    https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/ut-tt-poll-ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-texas-senate/

  755. MichiganGuy says:

    Oops forgot to put “Senate”. Oh well, everyone should know by now.

  756. Todd McCain says:

    Woah! GOP now ahead slightly in in person voting in Florida!

  757. EML says:

    Wow, huge day for Republicans in Florida. Mail in ballot lead over 60,000 and passed Democrats in in-person voting. Overall lead went from 53,127 to 61,449.

  758. EML says:

    Republicans never lead in person voting in Florida.

  759. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here are the stats in Florida through yesterday. And yes, the GOP now leads in-person voting by a collective 1,000 votes due mainly to some GOP Counties which startred in-person early voting yesterday. About 15 GOP districts have yet to open their doors for in-person voting.)

    Republican- 869,649
    Democrat- 808,200

    DIFFERENCE- 61,449

  760. Tgca says:

    Bitter would have been a perfect fit for San Francisco. All those windy foggy summer afternoons are a perfect opportunity for him to showcase his vast sweater collection.

    …and don’t forget the botanical gardens in Golden Gate Park either, 55 acres of serene gardens showcasing diverse plants from around the world & a magnolia collection too. He would be in Heaven.

  761. EML says:

    I count 24 counties that haven’t opened for early voting, 23 of which Trump won.

  762. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #770
    Add: Here are the major Florida Counties,with their political leans, which have yet to allow in-person early voting:

    Bay(GOP)
    Clay(GOP)
    Brevard(GOP)
    Martin(GOP)
    Osceola(Dem)
    Volusia(GOP)

  763. Wes says:

    Earthquakes and moonbats: two reasons I avoid San Francisco.

  764. EML says:

    When comparing 2018 Florida turnout so far vs 2016, two of the worst performing counties are Leon (Tallahassee/Florida State) and Alachua (Gainesville/Florida). Hillary won both of these by more than 20 points. The kids are not voting.

  765. Bitterlaw says:

    I have one sweater in a drawer. It still has the tag attached. My wife gave it to me for Christmas 5 years ago in an attempt to get me to expand my casual wardrobe beyond sweatshirts. It will stay buried in that drawer until I die. Or go to Goodwill.

  766. Hugh says:

    Libs melting down on 538. Beautiful

  767. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Updated as of Friday morning.

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.03%
    Democrats 38.94%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +60,404

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.68%
    Democrats 39.66%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +61,449

  768. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!
    .
    Cook moves New Jersey Senate race to tossup!
    .
    https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/senate-11-days-out-nj-moves-toss
    —————————————————————————————————————–
    This maybe fool’s gold but, the dems are having to spend millions of dollars to save this seat.

  769. jaichind says:

    @777 Look over the predictions of http://cgpolitics.blogspot.com/2018/10/us-house-predictions-kansas-maine.html
    and comparing it to the various projections I have I would say that blog is en route to predicting around a 25 seat gain for Dems.

  770. Phil says:

    Why no early voting yet in those Fla counties?

  771. DW says:

    Politico moved WA_08 from Lean D to Tossup (finally) a few weeks after Elway found Rossi (R) up ten points.

  772. jason says:

    This is why I don’t trust lawyers…

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 23, 2018 at 7:28 pm

    …..

    I do not own a sweater.

    Bitterlaw says:
    October 26, 2018 at 8:14 am

    I have one sweater in a drawer…

    Next he will say, ok, it’s in the drawer most of the time, I only wear it when its cold.

  773. Todd McCain says:

    These Florida EV numbers are unbelievable. Also, once the rurals all report in NEVADA, GOP will have likely cut into the DEM lead again.

  774. Bitterlaw says:

    Since I never wear sweaters, I forgot I owned it. I found that sweater after I made the original statement. GFY

  775. MichiganGuy says:

    11th and 12th suspicious packages intercepted Friday morning; 1 addressed to Sen. Booker and 1 addressed former Director of National Intelligence Clapper.
    .
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/suspicious-package-addressed-sen-cory-booker-found-florida-n924776

  776. jason says:

    Bitter, is the sweater ugly?

    Maybe you can enter an ugly sweater contest.

  777. jason says:

    Lawyers are very thorough.

    After denying he owned a sweater, Bitter conducted a full search of his house just to make sure and eureka, found one.

    Now that he found one, he will conduct another search lest there are two.

  778. jason says:

    Since I never wear sweaters, I forgot I owned it. I found that sweater after I made the original statement.”

    Who me, defensive?

    Don’t worry Bitter, I am just kidding, I don’t think you are really less of an A-hole because you own sweaters.

  779. Tgca says:

    The record is clear that Bitter is either lying, misremembering, or being coy.

    1st he says his girlfriend Jimmy from high school gave him 2 sweaters.

    Then he says he owns no sweaters.

    Now he says there’s only one buried in a drawer.

    I’ve heard he has a cardigan collection that would make Mr. Rogers envious. Just saying …

    …and off to work I go.

  780. Bitterlaw says:

    It is a plain blue sweater.

    If any other sweaters are discovered, I blame Jason or the Russians.

  781. jason says:

    It’s a slow morning for news, so that is why Sweatergate is so much in the forefront.

    Eventually someone will say something stupid and we can move on.

    Where is Amoral Scumbag?

  782. jason says:

    “If any other sweaters are discovered, I blame Jason or the Russians.”

    Hey Bitter, if you can’t take responsibility for your choices….

  783. EML says:

    Why no early voting yet in those Fla counties?
    ===========================
    Counties are not required to be open for early voting until tomorrow. It’s up to each county if they want to open earlier or not. I believe this past Monday was the earliest they could open.

  784. Bitterlaw says:

    Sweatergate is not going to take me down. This A-hole fights.

  785. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason’s scurrilous attacks are outrageous. It is just wrong when one A-hole tries to smear another A-hole.

  786. DW says:

    Marist out with a Generic ballot poll of 738 registered voters. D+10, 50/40.

  787. Victrc says:

    And this sweater conversation is better than the SF conversation how?!?!

    Bitter, my wife got a kick out of the “gayest conversation ever comment.” She states, “I concur.”

  788. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    29m
    1) NOTE on FL: Rs lead by 61,449 combining early and absentee voting. But up to 1/2 of the Panhandle hasn’t even voted or has only voted for 2 days due to hurricane & absentee voting there is way down (requests). You will see a vote shift on election day.

  789. mnw says:

    BL

    Married late in life to wife #1. Divorced at age 70. Kids are sophomores in HS.

    I’ve been posting for years that I’m older than Walt, but nobody notices.

  790. Tina says:

    chweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    30m
    Replying to @LarrySchweikart
    2) So whatever (good) number you are seeing, they UNDERSTATE the #s of Rs that will vote. . . . understate them bigly. Any polls with Gillum’s Island or Nelson winning big are pure meth-induced lunacy with no connection to a real #.
    View conversation ·

  791. Wes says:

    Cool moved NJ-Sen to Tossup. Could the Sewer State finally be tired of having corrupt, liberal Dems walk all over? No. The Land of Bitterlaw will still return its corrupt child molester to the Senate.

  792. Tina says:

    We went from Muh Frisco to Muh Sweater.

    Sf is still the best city though, despite the sheot in the streets and the homeless.

  793. jason says:

    “In an interview with CNN, Clapper said he was “not surprised” to be included among the apparent mail bomber’s targets, adding: “This is not going to silence the administration’s critics.”

  794. Bitterlaw says:

    I’ve been posting for years that I’m older than Walt, but nobody notices.

    We can’t use human time to measure Walt’s age. Even carbon dating fails after a few million years. It is unfortunate that Walt does not get the credit he deserves because he got into fight with the authors of Genesis. “Let there be Walt” was in the original version.

  795. dblaikie says:

    Leave it to Marist to come out with of a poll of REGISTERED voters this close to the election. You know they screened for likely voters this late in the cycle. They didn’t like what they saw. This is proof that these polling firms are not being forthright with their polls. That means they are propaganda.

  796. jason says:

    “Jason’s scurrilous attacks are outrageous. It is just wrong when one A-hole tries to smear another A-hole.”

    Sweatergate has legs…

  797. mnw says:

    Tina 803

    You did a Sheeple on me & beat me to it by posting that “meth-induced lunacy” comment from Schweikart.

  798. jason says:

    I hope Scott has ensured people can vote in the panhandle.

    After all, the Dems want every vote to count.

  799. Tina says:

    Regarding muh bomb:

    Soros son ready with op Ed within hours.

    Clapper, Brennan, etc. all with the same statements.

    Nbc takes a picture of bomb. No concern for safety, etc.

    Bombs were duds or appear to be.

    This is a hoax.

  800. Tina says:

    Forgot:

    Bo,bs mailed, then not mailed.

    Sent by courier.

    Gaffe was sent a bomb, but they are tracking it.

  801. jason says:

    I’ve been posting for years that I’m older than Walt, but nobody notices.”

    I think its more that people can’t get their minds around such an unfathomable concept.

  802. Bitterlaw says:

    The Land of Bitterlaw will still return its corrupt child molester to the Senate.

    Zzzzzz. I have as much impact on New Jersey’s elections as Wes does on Confederate history. The main difference is that I don’t defend New Jersey’s election results while Wes defends…

  803. Tina says:

    Papa dope may take back guilty plea for lying. He has hired new attorneys and his Twitter feed is great. Pretty clear imo, that Mifsud,mothe professor, was an Fib asset. So, there is a case on entrapment,

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/breaking-george-papadopoulos-claims-i-was-framed-may-take-back-mueller-plea-deal-video/

  804. jason says:

    To send by courier you have to deliver it somewhere, there are “unmanned” Fedex boxes you can put the package in but you have to have an account, not sure how you can’t be traced if you send by courier.

  805. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes to blame Tina for all the Dem politicians in California in 3…2…1…never.

  806. mnw says:

    RAS today:

    48/51

  807. mnw says:

    Off to RRH to survey the pessimism, eeyoring & liberal Wise Men snark!

    Careful, mnw. I don’t want a tee shirt that says, “I’m with the banned.”

  808. Tina says:

    I assumed delivery courier. If sent that way, then there could be video of the person making the delivery,

    If sent from the Florida postal facility mentioned this Am, there could be video of the person at the counter.

    I do not recall media ever taking pictures of bombs and with no regard for public safety.

    Taking pictures is not done for copy cats.

    I am skeptical of this matter. It is still an incident of terrorism.

  809. Phil says:

    Ok, I’ll ask the question nobody has asked yet. Does the FBI even want to catch this guy before the election?

    Seriously, he has sent out 12 packages. In today’s day and time I’m not buying that they still don’t know who this guy is. This is the FBI for God’s sake. With all their resources and expertise it’s more likely they are just withholding things for political reasons (we’ve seen this movie for the last two years) than they can’t catch him. I don’t trust any of it.

  810. Tina says:

    Byron York
    @ByronYork
    1h
    Know how to pick ’em: @TIME reports NeverTrump GOPer @TheRickWilson recently met with Michael Avenatti. Admires Avenatti’s ‘giant, clanking, titanium balls.’ Declined to say if they discussed 2020 Avenatti presidential bid. From TIME: ow.ly/hTEi30mnUpe pic.twitter.com/qd4EPvAVh

    Maybe Wilson can hire the Socialist on the Lido Deck as an advisor.

  811. Wes says:

    Last I checked, Bitter, Tina isn’t an anti-Southern bigot who brags about wanting to live in only places infested with corrupt leftwingers.

    You do that. Ergo, you earn my shots at you.

  812. Tina says:

    Phil,

    The Fib is still busy wire tapping Trump Tower. Comedy rendered them incompetent,

  813. jason says:

    Awwwwww….

    “BRATISLAVA/PARIS (Reuters) – French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that he regretted Belgium’s decision to choose Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth jets over the Eurofighter Typhoon planes.

    “It’s a decision that was the result of a process which I greatly respect and which was linked to political constraints specific to Belgium, which are not for me to comment upon, but strategically it goes against European interests,” said Macron at a news conference held with Slovakia President Andrej Kiska.

    “For my part, I regret the choice that was made.”

  814. John says:

    The FBI is looking with interest at someplace in Florida.
    Didn’t some packages have a return address of Florids instead of Florida?

  815. Phil says:

    I’m not saying a lefty is behind any of this, but if it is you can bet your bottom dollar the FBI will make sure that doesn’t get out until AFTER the election. Of that I have no doubt.

  816. mnw says:

    The Blue Wave Is Coming: the last predictor to stick with that?

    Say hi to The Drudge Report:

    “WH fears midterm wipeout”

    “Gillum establishes progressive beachhead in FL”

    “Is America ready for socialism?”

    “Pelosi prepares to take gavel again”

    GOP expects DEMs to gain 30-40 seats, flip House”

    other than that….

  817. DW says:

    Not sure there’s any way to sugarcoat this one:

    Tester 49%
    Rosendale 39%

    University of Montana

    MT_01

    Williams (D) 46%
    Gianforte (R) 45%

  818. Phil says:

    That doesn’t point to a loss of 20 House seats – more like 40-45.

  819. DW says:

    Latest Dashboard:

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    WV_02 R | 125 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    TX_10 R | 126 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    PA_11 R | 127 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    OR_02 R | 128 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5
    OH_16 R | 129 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NC_06 R | 130 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NC_07 R | 131 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    NV_02 R | 132 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.5
    MI_02 R | 133 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.5
    KS_04 R | 134 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 5.5
    WI_08 R | 135 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    TX_03 R | 136 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    NJ_04 R | 137 | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.3
    MI_03 R | 138 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | 5.3
    TX_24 R | 139 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    TX_06 R | 140 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    OH_15 R | 141 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 5.1
    PA_14* D | 142 | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 5.1
    NY_02 R | 143 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.8
    NC_08 R | 144 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | 4.8
    IN_09 R | 145 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    OH_07 R | 146 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.8
    TX_22 R | 147 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.6
    TX_02 R | 148 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    NY_23 R | 149 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    OK_05 R | 150 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    CA_22 R | 151 | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    AZ_06 R | 152 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.6
    NY_21 | 153 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.4
    IA_04 R | 154 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    IN_02 R | 155 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    MI_01 R | 156 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.4
    TX_31 R | 157 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | 4.4
    AZ_08 R | 158 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    OH_10 R | 159 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 4.2
    FL_25 R | 160 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4.2
    CO_03 R | 161 | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    MO_02 R | 162 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    SC_01 R | 163 | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    CA_04 R | 164 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    NY_01 R | 165 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 4
    WI_06 R | 166 | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 4
    AK_01 R | 167 | Ln R | Sf R | Lk R | Sf R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.7
    TX_21* R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | 3.7
    MI_07 R | 169 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.7
    OH_14 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.5
    FL_18 R | 171 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_06* R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    CA_21 R | 173 | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | 3.1
    GA_07 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    FL_16 R | 175 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    MI_06 R | 176 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    WA_03 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    NY_11 R | 179 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | 2.8
    PA_16 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    GA_06* R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AR_02 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    IL_13 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 185 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 2.3
    NY_27 R | 186 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WA_05 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NE_02 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    TX_23 R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    PA_10 R | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2
    FL_15* R | 191 | Toss | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8
    VA_05 R | 192 | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Tlt D | Ln R | 1.8
    WI_01* R | 193 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8
    OH_12 R | 194 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.7
    IL_12 R | 195 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.6
    MN_08* D | 196 | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.5
    IL_14 R | 197 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.5
    NC_02 R | 198 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.5
    WV_03* R | 199 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.3
    NC_13 R | 200 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.2
    UT_04 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    VA_02 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    FL_26 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
    TX_07 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    PA_01 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    WA_08* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NJ_03 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.1
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    NV_04* D | 201 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -2
    NJ_11* R | 200 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    CO_06 R | 199 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    CA_49* R | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Sf D | Ln D | -2.4
    AZ_02* R | 195 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.4
    NH_01* D | 194 | Lk D | Tlt D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.5
    AZ_01 D | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.6
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.1
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.7
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.2
    PA_06* R | 186 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.6
    NJ_02* R | 185 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -4.8
    PA_05* R | 184 | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -4.8
    AZ_09* D | 183 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    CA_24 D | 182 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.8
    OR_05 D | 181 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Tlt D | Sf D | -5
    NH_02 D | 180 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    NY_18 D | 179 | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CA_16 | 178 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.1
    CT_05* D | 177 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | -5.3
    FL_13 D | 176 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    IA_02 D | 175 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.3
    MD_06 D | 174 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NY_03 D | 173 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    WI_03 D | 172 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5
    IL_17 | 166 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    MA_09 | | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    MI_05 | | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | -5.5
    NM_01 | 165 | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Sf D | -5.5

    *indicates open seat

  820. MichiganGuy says:

    Montana garbage poll. 10% undecided this late in the game? 607 registered voters. Of that 533 likely voters. Survey results were weighted by geography and gender. LOL I still say Rosendale will win

  821. Hugh says:

    To ridiculous to even consider. This election is not about tester it’s about more of the same (good times) or the mob. How’s early voting going in Montana

  822. Wes says:

    Montana has no party registration, so I guess the only way to gauge that, Hugh, is by looking at the counties where Republicans or Democrats typically do best.

  823. Mr.Vito says:

    Bitter’s blue sweater is quickly becoming as infamous as Michael’s salmon sportcoat.

  824. Victrc says:

    Maybe they only polled people AT the university of MT. Does anyone really think we lose this house seat?

  825. MichiganGuy says:

    Montana Early Voting
    .
    Republicans 50,914
    Democrats 32,331
    Unaffiliated 27,152
    .
    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

  826. Mr.Vito says:

    Oprah-bomber…

    You get a bomb! And you get a bomb! And you get a bomb! EVERYONE GETS A BOMB!!

  827. mnw says:

    MG 839

    That’s a good catch, & that’s a DEM outfit, too, I see.

  828. Mr.Vito says:

    Bomber caught.

    It’s Jokey Smurf.

  829. Wes says:

    That website lists MT party affiliation as “modeled.” I’m dubious as to how that occurs.

  830. mnw says:

    MG

    Do u know what the corresponding MT figures were, at the same time prior to the elections, for ’16 or ’14?

  831. mnw says:

    Wes

    By how the MT counties usually vote, I suspect. A crude tool, but a legitimate one.

  832. Todd McCain says:

    They arrested the person in Florida; from DWS’ district.

  833. Mr.Vito says:

    Seriously, a suspect was arrested here in Florida.

  834. DW says:

    838 – I think the GOP holds the MT house seat. We just had two different campuses of MSU poll the race and they show GOP leads of 8 and 4. So the U of Mont poll is likely the outlier, but still, it probably tells us that Tester is ahead, as the MSU polls showed us.

  835. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, I don’t have time right now to look it up but, here is the link.
    .
    https://sosmt.gov/elections/results/

  836. Wes says:

    That’s what I figured, Mnw. If Republicans really are 18,000 votes up in early voting, Rosendale is in a good position as Tester would have to carry Indies by a wide margin to catch up to him.

  837. BayernFan says:

    White male 50s former New Yorker has made threats before.

  838. Waingro says:

    Florida man arrested for pipe bomb packages. Now we wait to see if it’s a “false flag” guy.

  839. Robbie says:

    The FBI has arrested a person of interest in Plantation, Florida. Right now, CNN is showing helicopter video of the white van the suspect must have used. It appears the van is covered in political signs, but officials are now covering it in a blue tarp..

    I certainly hope this person is not some drooling, red hat clown. That would be an awful storyline for the last 10 days.

  840. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:19 am
    Florida man arrested for pipe bomb packages. Now we wait to see if it’s a “false flag” guy.

    – The van they have confiscated appeared to be covered in political signs, one of which was a picture of Trump. We’ll see what that means.

  841. gameboy says:

    More likely the guy is a left wing wacko. I’m sure his social media will be scrubbed prior to releasing the name.

  842. Todd McCain says:

    854. Media will go nuts if that is true; this was the October surprise.

  843. Todd McCain says:

    If GOP is really ahead almost 19K in Montana, that makes it truly difficult for Tester, but not sure how they are arriving at that.

  844. Mr.Vito says:

    ” Media will go nuts if that is true; this was the October surprise.”

    Media has been going nuts for two years.

  845. gameboy says:

    #856 I don’t think the media can go any more “nuts” then they have been going for 2 1/2 years now.

  846. Bitterlaw says:

    Last I heard, Wes, Tina does live in a place run by corrupt left wingers. I just want a beach house. GFY.

  847. Mr.Vito says:

    Is the van also booby-trapped with fake bombs?

  848. Robbie says:

    gameboy says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:22 am
    More likely the guy is a left wing wacko. I’m sure his social media will be scrubbed prior to releasing the name.

    – One of the prominent pictures on his van (driver side rear window) appears to be a glowing picture of Trump over the presidential seal.

  849. Robbie says:

    Chuck Ross
    @ChuckRossDC

    Local reporters telling MSNBC’s Craig Melvin that the van has photos of Trump and presidential seal.

  850. jason says:

    Poor Amoral Scumbag, hoping that its a right wing nut so he can blame Trump.

  851. NYCmike says:

    Fixed it:

    “Sweatergate is not going to take me down. This A-hole fights…….DIRTY!

  852. MichiganGuy says:

    Well, if this is the guy and there are no more bombs out there; I think this will have very little impact on the elections given no one got hurt.

  853. NYCmike says:

    Robbie has been salivating all night to bring us the “TRUMP van” story!

  854. NYCmike says:

    “I certainly hope this person is not some drooling, red hat clown. That would be an awful storyline for the last 10 days.”

    -Did he have fans on the dashboard as well?

  855. Todd McCain says:

    867. Right.

  856. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:34 am
    Poor Amoral Scumbag, hoping that its a right wing nut so he can blame Trump.

    – Poor, Jason fraud. Lying just to lie.

  857. Todd McCain says:

    On the flip side, these attacks could galvanize the GOP.

  858. hugh says:

    if they got the guy its a 48 hour news cycle and gone. Plus any benefit the dems may get out of it will be mitigated because they will be so over the top.

  859. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:35 am
    Robbie has been salivating all night to bring us the “TRUMP van” story!

    – Wrong. More likely you’ve been salivating that this story might take the blame for an election loss off the moron Tea Party idiots you like to support. How’s your boy Chris McDaniel doing?

  860. dblaikie says:

    Whether he is right wing or left wing. A loon is a loon is a loon. No one will care in 2 days.

  861. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:37 am
    867. Right.

    – Wrong.

  862. Wes says:

    What gets me is why a lunatic would send nonexploding bombs out. It makes no sense.

  863. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag rushed here breathlessly because the van supposedly had a Trump picture.

    If it had an Obama picture, we wouldn’t see him here for days. He would be “busy” or in Bogo Pogo.

  864. Tina says:

    So, we are on to muh trump van?

    Is the guy Russian?

  865. Wes says:

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m glad no one was hurt. I’m just curious as to why a supposed psychopath would intentionally send out bombs that won’t hurt anyone.

    It just makes no sense.

  866. Robbie says:

    hugh says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:39 am
    if they got the guy its a 48 hour news cycle and gone. Plus any benefit the dems may get out of it will be mitigated because they will be so over the top.

    – If, and I stress IF, it turns out this guy was sending mail bombs because he thought it would help Trump, it will not play well and the press will have a field day.

    If you’re Dean Heller or Martha McSally and you have some momentum going into the last ten days, the last thing you want is to discuss whether Trump’s rhetoric provoked a supporter to do this.

  867. Skippy says:

    So my profiling guess I posted here 2 days ago of the bomber being a right wing nut job and living in Florida turned out to be correct.

    What do ya now!

  868. jason says:

    I am sure Corey will be here soon to blame Trump too.

  869. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:41 am
    What gets me is why a lunatic would send nonexploding bombs out. It makes no sense.

    – I think you answered the question yourself. He’s a lunatic. They don’t always follow all of the steps correctly.

  870. DW says:

    Paladin Dashboard Sorted by Polls
    ——————————————————-
    C Dist | R/D | Recent Polling | Gap
    ——————————————————-
    OR_05 – D – 56/33 (Gravis-internal) | 20
    TX_23 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 49/40 (Siena) | 55/30 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 16
    AZ_06 – R – 50/36 (Siena) | 14
    NY_24 – R – 54/39 (Siena) | 14
    OK_05 – R – 50/37 (Vcreek) | 47/37 (Sooner) | 51/35 (R-Int) | 13
    PA_11 – R – 44/35 (D-Int) | 12
    OR_02 – R – 49/40 (D-Int) | 12
    TX_31 – R – 46/40 (PPP-D) | 46/42 (D-Int) | 54/33 (R-Int) | 53/38 (Siena) | 12
    GA_07 – R – 44/46 (Tulchin-D) | 59/32 (R-Int) | 49/43 (JMC-D) | 12
    CA_21 – R – 50/31 (SUSA) | 11
    NY_11 – R – 47/39 (PPP-D-Internal) | 11
    AR_02 – R – 47/42 (PPP-D) | 50/41 (Hendrix) | 52/40 (Hendrix) | 10
    OH_16 – R – 48/39 (TargetInsight) | 9
    MI_02 – R – 48/42 (D-Int) | 9
    TX_06 – R – 48/39 (PPP-D) | 9
    TX_02 – R – 49/40 (TargetInsight) | 9
    NY_21 – R – 50/41 (TargetInsight) | 9
    MO_02 – R – 51/40 (Rem.) | 9
    TX_21* – R – 33/27 (Chg Res.) | 50/38 (R-Int) | 9
    WV_02 – R – 32/24 (Emerson) | 8
    CA_22 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 55/41 (SUSA) | 53/45 (LA Times) | 51/46 (D-Int) | 8
    IA_04 – R – 41/31 (Emerson) |43/37 (D-Int) | 8
    NY_01 – R – 47/44 (D-Int) | 49/41 (Siena) | 50/46 (D-Int) | 8
    FL_16 – R – 48/44 (D-Int) | 50/43 (St. Pete) | 49/40 (N. FL U) | 50/40 (POS) | 8
    NE_02 – R – 51/42 (Siena) 49/45 (D-Int) | 49/40 (R-Int) | R+11 (R-Internal) | 8
    OH_01 – R – 44/46 (D-Int) | 46/39 (R-Int) | 50/41 (Siena) | 50/41 (Siena) | 8
    AZ_08 – R – 48/44 (D-int) | 7
    FL_25 – R – 46/39 (St. Pete) | 41/36 (PPP-D-Int) | 7
    SC_01 – R – 49/42 (PPP-D) | 7
    CA_04 – R – 49/45 (D-Int) | 7
    MI_07 – R – 41/37 (DCCC-D) | 7
    WA_03 – R – 42/37 (Lake R.) | 43/45 (D-Int) | 48/41 (Siena) | 7
    PA_16 – R – 50/44 (D-Int) | 50/42 (Siena) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 7
    IL_12 – R – 44/39 (PPP-D) |44/37 (Siena) | 46/45 (D-Int) | 48/39 (Siena) | 7
    MN_08* – D – 43/42 (Siena) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 49/34 (Siena) | R+8 (R-Int) | 7
    FL_18 – R – 46/43 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/45 (D-Int) | 6
    IL_13 – R – 49/48 (D-Int) | 50/37 (R-int) | 49/48 (D-Int) | 46/41 (Siena) | 6
    WA_05 – R – 44/38 (elway) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 6
    NY_23 – R – 49/47 (D-Int) | 5
    MI_06 – R – 49/44 (GSG-D) | 45/41 (PPP-D) | 49/46 (D-Int) | 5
    OH_12 – R – 48/44 (PPP-D) | 47/46 (D-Int) | 48/46 (D-Int) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 5
    WV_03* – R – 31/36 (Emerson) |44/48 (D-Int) | 48/43 (Monmouth) | 46/41 (Siena) | 5
    NC_13 – R – 40/35 (Civitas) | 42/46 (D-Int) | 47/41 (Siena) | 44/41 (SUSA) | 5
    VA_02 – R – 49/41 (Siena) | 47/46 (Change Res.) | 50/43 (CNU) | 45/42 (Siena) | 5
    WA_08* – R – 51/45 (GBA) | 45/46 (Siena) | 49/39 (Elway) | 5
    AK_01 – R – 50/46 (ASR) | 46/43 (PPP-D) | 48/44 (D-Int) | 49/47 (ASR) | 4
    FL_06* – R – 48/43 (St. Pete) | 45/45 (D-Int) | 4
    GA_06* – R – 49/47 (D-Inc) | 49/45 (JMC) | 48/47 (D-Int) | 4
    WI_01* – R – 50/44 (Siena) | 46/44 (D-Int) | 44/45 (D-Int) | 4
    IL_14 – R – 45/41 (PPP-D) | 47/43 (Siena) | 4
    UT_04 – R – 49/46 (Dan Jones) | 51/42 (Y2) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 46/46 (U of UT) | 4
    VA_07 – R – 48/39 (Siena) | 47/47 (Monmouth) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 4
    IA_03 – R – 47/31 (Emerson) | 43/46 (D-Int) | 43/44 (Siena) | 4
    CA_50 – R – 47/39 (SUSA) | 44/45 (Tulchin-D) | 53/38 (Monmouth) |49/47 (LA Times) | 3
    MT_01 – R – 51/42 (Gravis) | 48/40 (MSU-Bo) | 44/41 (MSU-Bi) | 45/46 (U of MT) | 3
    NY_27 – R – 42/42 (D-Int) | 46/43 (Siena) | 3
    FL_15* – R – 46/39 (R-Int) | 45/45 (SUSA) | 43/43 (Siena) | 47/41 (R-Int) | 47/47 (D-Int) | 3
    TX_07 – R – 47/45 (D-Int.) | 48/45 (Siena) | 45/47 (PPP-D-Int) | 46/45 (Siena) | 3
    MN_01* – D – 47/33 (Harper) | 45/47 (SUSA) | 3
    MI_08 – R – 43/47 (D-Int) | 45/43 (POS) | 47/44 (Siena) | 48/45 (Target Ins.) | 3
    VA_05 – R – 45/46 (Siena) | 48/43 (TargetIns.) | 2
    NM_02* – R – 48/41 (Res.&Poll.) | 45/46 (Siena) |49/45 (R-Int) | 45/44 (Siena) | 2
    NY_22 – R – 44/46 (Siena) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 45/46 (Siena) | 2
    CA_39* – R – 51/41 (Monmouth) | 48/49 (LA Times) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 46/47 (Siena) | 2
    NC_09* – R – 43/44 (D-Int) | 47/42 (Siena) | 41/45 (SUSA) | 2
    FL_27* – R – 44/42 (Mason-Dixon) | 39/44 (D-Int) | tie (R-Int) | 37/44 (Siena) | 50/41 (R-Int) | 2
    PA_10 – R – 44/43 (PPP-D) | 1
    NC_02 – R – 44/45 (GQR-D) | 43/44 (SUSA) | 1
    FL_26 – R – 47/44 (Siena) | 45/46 (PPP-D-Int) | 48/50 (D-Int) | 46/45 (Mason-Dixon) | 44/45 (Siena) | 1
    TX_32 – R – 47/45 (GBA) | 42/47 (PPP-D-Int) |48/47 (Siena) | 46/47 (D-Int) | 1
    CA_48 – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) |39/46 (Siena) | 48/48 (LA Times) | 50/48 (Monmouth) | 1
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NY_19 – R – 49/44 (IMGE) | 45/40 (Siena) | 43/45 (Monmouth) | 44/43 (Siena) | 1
    KY_06 – R – 49/45 (FLA-R) |48/43 Siena |43/50 (D-Int) | 47/47 (POR) | 44/51 (D-Int) | 48/46 (R-Int) | 1
    NJ_07 – R – 45/47 (GQR-D) | 43/46 (Monmouth) | 45/44 (Siena) | 0
    PA_01 – R – 50/46 (Monmouth) | 50/42 (R-Int) | 42/48 (Siena) | 45/49 (TargetIns.) | 0
    ME_02 – R – 40/39 (D-Int) | 46/40 (Siena) | 41/41 (Siena) | 37/37 (SMS Group) | 42/48 (D-Int) | 0
    CA_25 – R – 47/47 (IMGE) | 47/45 (Siena) | 46/50 (LA Times) | 0
    NJ_03 – R – 39/49 (Siena) | 44/40 (R-int) | 47/45 (Stockton U) | 46/48 (Monmouth) | 45/44 (Siena) | 0
    CA_45 – R – 43/48 (Siena) | 47/48 (D-Int) | 45/52 (LA Times) | 50/46 (R-Int) | 50/42 (TargetInsight) | 0
    IL_06 – R – 44/37 (Victory Res.) | 45/44 (Siena) | 44/47 (D-Int) | 44/49 (D-Int) | 0
    KS_02* – R – 34/39 (Mellman-D) | 44/45 (Siena) | -1
    CA_10 – R – 48/37 (D-Int) | 48/48 (GHY-D) | 45/50 (LA Times) | 45/47 (Siena) | -1
    NV_04* – D – 41/41 (R-Int) | 41/37 (R-Int) | 34/36 (Emerson) | -1
    AZ_01 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | 44/38 (R-Int) | 46/46 (R-Int) | -1
    FL_07 – D – 46/47 (St. Pete) | -1
    NV_03* – D – 39/41 (Emerson) | -2
    NJ_05 – D – 39/36 (R-Int) | -2
    MN_02 – R – 46/45 (R-Int) | 45/48 (PPP-D-Int) | 45/48 (SUSA) | 46/43 (R-Int) | 39/51 (Siena) | -4
    MI_11* – R – 42/45 (PPP-D) | 38/45 (Siena) | 35/36 (R-Int) | 39/48 (D-Int) | 48/48 (Target Ins.) | -4
    IA_01 – R – 38/43 (Emerson) | 37/52 (Siena) | 43/44 (R-Int) | 43/45 (R-Int) | R+4 (R-Int) | -4
    CA_24 – D – 46/47 (Olive Tree St.) | -4
    KS_03 – R – 43/46 (GSG-D) | 43/51 (Siena) | 43/40 (R-Int) | 39/48 (Siena) | -5
    CO_06 – R – 38/52 (Siena) | 38/49 (D-Int) | 44/41 (R-Int) | 38/47 (Siena) | 43/48 (TargetIns.) | -5
    NJ_11* – R – 43/46 (R-Int) | 36/42 (D-Int) | 44/48 (Monmouth) | 38/49 (Siena) | -6
    NM_01 – D – 43/47 (Carroll) | 41/49 (Res. & Polling) | -6
    PA_07* – R – 45/47 (Monmouth) | 42/50 (Siena) | 34/45 (DeSales U) | 41/48 (Muhlenberg Col.) | -7
    VA_10 – R – 44/50 (Monmouth) | 44/51 (CNU) | 41/48 (Siena) | 47/47 (TargetIns.) | 43/56 (GeorgeMason) | -8
    NH_01* – D – 33/55 (ARG) | 42/40 (R-Int) | 35/40 (Emerson) | 36/44 (St. Anselm) | 37/46 (UNH) | -8
    MN_03 – R – 40/50 (Siena) | 39/52 (PPP-D) | 44/49 (SUSA) | -9
    CA_49* – R – 46/43 (R-Int) | 41/51 (Siena) | 43/45 (R-Int) | 41/55 (LA Times) | 39/53 (Siena) | -9
    CA_07 – D – 41/50 (POS) | -9
    AZ_02* – R – 39/50 (Siena) | -11
    CA_16 – D – 40/51 (SUSA) | -11
    PA_17 – R – 42/54 (Monmouth) | -12
    PA_08 – D – 40/52 (Siena) | -12
    MN_07 – D – 35/53 (D-Int) | -15
    NJ_02* – R – 39/44 (PPP-D) | 32/55 (Stockton U) | 38/55 (Stockton U) | -15
    NH_02 – D – 27/54 (ARG) | 25/44 (Emerson) | 22/49 (St. Anselm) | 38/53 (UNH) | -15

  871. jason says:

    he last thing you want is to discuss whether Trump’s rhetoric provoked a supporter to do this.”

    You mean the rhetoric you are advancing?

    LOL

  872. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:44 am
    Amoral Scumbag rushed here breathlessly because the van supposedly had a Trump picture.
    If it had an Obama picture, we wouldn’t see him here for days. He would be “busy” or in Bogo Pogo.

    – The guy who hated Trump every day of the campaign, refused to vote for Trump, and left the party over Trump has some thoughts.

  873. Wes says:

    Apparently either Robbie or Corey has recently debated Bob Hugin:

    “When you create that type of environment, you create a toxic environment,” Menendez said, arguing that it’s been “largely created by this president.”

  874. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow has been up all night checking and rechecking clues on the mail bombs.

    95% sure that it is coming from somewhere in Florida…

  875. mnw says:

    Our old friend rdel posts at RRH that about one-third of the FL vote has been cast now.

    That is the only guy who abandoned HHR whom I think was a real loss.

  876. dblaikie says:

    Robbie the press is going to have field day no matter what. But you know what it doesn’t matter. 2 day story either way. Or, as usual, the media will over reach and help GOP.

  877. Wes says:

    Lunatics tend to try to actually hurt people when sending bombs, Robbie. (See Kaczinsky, Ted.) This guy intentionally tried not to hurt people. That’s more the profile of an attention seeker than a homicidal maniac.

  878. Hugh says:

    Robbie your opinion only. I don’t see it having an impact.

  879. Tina says:

    @ChuckRossDC
    Follow
    ICYMI: NBC News withheld exculpatory information on Kavanaugh regarding Avenatti/Swetnick’s claims for 3 weeks. The network only published this damning report after Grassley referred Avenatti and Swetnick to DOJ. dailycaller.com/2018/10/25/ave… via @dailycaller
    7

    Nice cover up,nbc and cn and n.

  880. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:46 am
    he last thing you want is to discuss whether Trump’s rhetoric provoked a supporter to do this.”
    You mean the rhetoric you are advancing?
    LOL

    – Oh, so a *potential* discussion about Trump’s rhetoric and whether it may have prompted a nutjob to send mail bombs is a good closing message for vulnerable Republicans? Got it.

    I guess I shouldn’t be surprised a guy who contorted almost every view he ever had about Trump simply because he won would think the stupid f@cking sh!t you offer these days.

  881. Tina says:

    Can we trade the jebots for rdel?

  882. Robbottie says:

    I’m jealous that other people actually have thoughts.

  883. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:48 am
    Apparently either Robbie or Corey has recently debated Bob Hugin:
    “When you create that type of environment, you create a toxic environment,” Menendez said, arguing that it’s been “largely created by this president.”

    – It’s more believable than this was all a false flag operation like Lou Dobbs and Rush Limbaugh claimed.

    And yes, I do think Trump has contributed to the toxic public climate that exists now. He didn’t start it, but he has done nothing to turn down the heat.

  884. Mr.Vito says:

    Catching the guy this quickly just makes the administration continue to look competent.

  885. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:50 am
    Lunatics tend to try to actually hurt people when sending bombs, Robbie. (See Kaczinsky, Ted.) This guy intentionally tried not to hurt people. That’s more the profile of an attention seeker than a homicidal maniac.

    – How do you know he didn’t intentionally try and hurt anyone? It’s possible, but just because the bombs didn’t go off doesn’t mean that was the point.

  886. Tina says:

    Do any trump supporters really have bumper stickers, picture, whatever on their cars?

    Lol.

  887. Robbie says:

    Robbottie says:
    October 26, 2018 at 11:54 am
    I’m jealous that other people actually have thoughts.

    – I’m impressed you can string words together without shorting out the device from all of the drool that comes from your mouth.

  888. DW says:

    Maybe a good time to remind everyone that a radical leftist grabbed a rifle and went to the GOP baseball practice and nearly killed Steve Scalise (R), leaving him with life-changing injuries. Many more could have been injured or died had the leftist been a good shot.

  889. Robbottie says:

    “I’m impressed you can string words together without shorting out the device from all of the drool that comes from your mouth.”

    Me too. But I was made as close to the real thing as possible.

  890. Tina says:

    Cesar Sayoc is the alleged bomber.

    53 years old.

  891. RB says:

    Robbie…KY-06? Thought…will be an early tell on the night

    Does Mitch get to tweet ‘Thanks for playing Amy’

  892. gameboy says:

    The van had a picture of Trump, presidential seal, etc.? LOL Who the he** does that. For sure the work of a left wing loon. Man they are desperate…….

  893. Wes says:

    Either Sayoc didn’t want to hurt anyone, or he was the most incompetent attempted bomber in history, Robbie. Take your pick.

    Given the universality of the bombs’ failure, I’ll go with intent barring evidence otherwise.

  894. Phil says:

    Good God, Robbie. For a while there I was thinking there was hope for you. Now you’re back to mouthing MSN talking points again.

    I give up.

  895. Mr.Vito says:

    I’m surprised the van wasn’t found “down by the river.”

  896. Tina says:

    Sorry, 56 years old.

    Sayoc uses the last name Sayol.

    Would appear to be of Hispanic or ?Filipino ancestry,

  897. sandiegocitizen says:

    Lets not forget that Trump strongly condemned the mailings. By contrast, in response to violence by people who were Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s response was that Democrats should not be civil anymore. Where was the outrage over the actions of Antifa among the leftists? There are kooks on both sides.

  898. Tina says:

    It appears that the person wanted to be caught.

    I know of know trump supporters with stickers, pictures on their cars.

    This smells like Edsel Ford 2.0 or porn lawyahs “witness.”

  899. Robbie says:

    RB says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:03 pm
    Robbie…KY-06? Thought…will be an early tell on the night
    Does Mitch get to tweet ‘Thanks for playing Amy’

    – Close, very close. Barr probably has the slight edge right now, but it’s tight.

  900. RB says:

    Regarding the bomber—the pictures on the van are irrelevant…if i wanted to pretend to be a lefty i would put Bernie stuff all over my car….the facts will come out and that will be that…speculation based on tne van wothout context is silly…his former arrests will be more telling

  901. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:04 pm
    Good God, Robbie. For a while there I was thinking there was hope for you. Now you’re back to mouthing MSN talking points again.
    I give up.

    – Are you bunkered in the basement of your house trying to survive the caravan?

    And by the way, I’m telling you how I think the story will play. Not whether I think Trump deserves any blame for this nutjob.

  902. mnw says:

    rdel at RRH reports good EV numbers from CO for GOP. That seems to be a pattern everywhere EV #s are available.

    Anybody noted exceptions?

    I doubt it will help Coffman (R) much in CO-06, though.

  903. Robbie says:

    sandiegocitizen says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    Lets not forget that Trump strongly condemned the mailings.

    – That will totally matter with the press. That will keep them from replaying his rally comments or showing his tweets.

  904. Tina says:

    Jebot went full mslsd.

    Time for Clinton groupie to tag in.

  905. wheelz91 says:

    Report he was registered with the Green Party.

  906. Wes says:

    That will totally matter with the press.

    Robbie suddenly gender switched into P. J. Soles while posting.

  907. Mr.Vito says:

    “Report he was registered with the Green Party.”

    I wouldn’t trust anything said about the guy right now. People go out and edit open sources and create fake accounts.

  908. Robbie says:

    I think the false flag explanation is clearly the goofiest and dumbest one, but Rush and the gang put it out there right away because they feared the culprit might be a loony Trumper and wanted to get an alternate theory out there as soon as possible.

  909. Phil says:

    No, Robbie, you are telling us how you WANT it to play out.

    And I see you are back to your old immigration snark.

    Caravan? Yeah, let’s let em in….and then the next one….and then the next one….and the next one….the next one…and the beat goes on.

  910. Robbie says:

    wheelz91 says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:13 pm
    Report he was registered with the Green Party.

    – Considering the nut had a picture on his van of Jill Stein with a bulls eye over her, I doubt it.

  911. Victrc says:

    Notice how all,the early reports had middle aged WHITE male arrested.

    Now his “identity” if mentioned at all in paragraph 40 just says male, not Hispanic male.

    Most hurt that he’s not white….media and left wing wingnuts

  912. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:16 pm
    No, Robbie, you are telling us how you WANT it to play out.
    And I see you are back to your old immigration snark.

    – Phil, here’s the deal. If you’re going to claim I’m somehow rooting for Republican to lose when you know that’s ridiculous, I’m going to throw the snark and stupidity right back at you.

  913. sandiegocitizen says:

    Robbie, you engaged in all sorts of doom and gloom speculation about how the Kavanaugh nomination would pan out. Likewise your doing the same now. The American people are smart enough to realize this guy was a kook. And they have been watching kooks on both sides for some time.

  914. Mr.Vito says:

    Meanwhile, Trump is going to speak in front of those all those young black conservatives wearing their MAGA hats.

  915. RB says:

    We dont know anything till facts come out

    Certainly very possible it is a right winger…but could be playing tne caracterure of a right winger for political reasons…we’ll all know soon enough

  916. Robbie says:

    Here’s the nutjob’s Twitter feed. Not a leftwinger.

    https://twitter.com/hardrock2016

  917. Phil says:

    That’s all you ever have is snark.

    Seriously, there is never any daylight between what you recite on this blog and what the MSM puts out 24/7. Why is that exactly?

  918. Redmen4ever says:

    There’s a kind of crazy randomness to this political assassination. So, don’t let following hunches – which is fine – turn into profiling. A person of interest has been arrested. This doesn’t necessarily mean this investigation is over.

    As for displaying Trump beheaded and human beings in gun sites, these can and do touch off marginal characters, such as are found at various places on and off the political spectrum.

    It’s not like we always get the perpetrators. Bit, sometimes we do:

    https://www.newsweek.com/massachusetts-man-accused-sending-white-powder-president-donald-trump-sons-1175528

  919. Mr.Vito says:

    Ben Shapiro Retweeted
    Democrat Strategist
    ? @JammieWF
    1h1 hour ago

    If bomber is:

    Trump supporter: All Republicans are guilty.

    Trump hater: Trump made him do it.

    Mental patient: All Republicans are guilty.

  920. Robbie says:

    sandiegocitizen says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:21 pm
    The American people are smart enough to realize this guy was a kook. And they have been watching kooks on both sides for some time.

    – Putting your faith in the American people is the surest way to be disappointed.

  921. Phil says:

    928

    Bingo. Absolutely nailed it.

  922. Phil says:

    Yeah, let’s put our faith in the MSM instead.

    They’ve earned it. Right, Robbie.

  923. Mr.Vito says:

    EL GLIKO
    ? @ElGliko

    This van looks like what Steve Bannon would turn into if he was a Transformer

  924. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:27 pm
    928
    Bingo. Absolutely nailed it.

    – LOL. Phil, did you nail it when you stupidly claimed I was rooting for Beto? Now, that’s nailing it.

  925. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:28 pm
    Yeah, let’s put our faith in the MSM instead.
    They’ve earned it. Right, Robbie.

    – Here’s a crazy thought. I don’t put my faith in either and never have.

  926. Phil says:

    Brilliant deception by “the bomber” Why, nobody would ever suspect this guy in a million years. What a loon.

  927. Hugh says:

    So let’s get this straight. In MT EV 25% of the vote is in. Gop leads Dems EV by more than 50% and tester is supposed to win? Im thinking tester is gone.

  928. DW says:

    uh oh.

    “strawdog
    October 26, 2018 at 12:07 pm | In reply to HoneyBee

    Precisely.”

    Careful mnw, someone else got banned for that sort of behavior at RRH.

  929. Mr.Vito says:

    Trump speaking now in front of screaming young black conservatives with MAGA hats.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4yfueb2pTY

  930. sandiegocitizen says:

    An security expert on Fox News described the devices as Mickey Mouse products, that were meant to be found. Apoarently he may have made terrorist threats before.

    Jill Stein has not been in the news for awhile. So he may have been unhinged for some time. Don’t think you can blame any of Trump’s recent statements for his actions.

  931. Mr.Vito says:

    Again, Trump looking presidential while media foaming at the mouth.

  932. Phil says:

    Wait, you’re NOT rooting for Beto?

    You guys spout the same snark on immigration.

  933. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The GOP continues to rock the early voting in Arizona.
    Republican ballots through yesterday are 87,173 ahead of Democrat ones.

  934. Mr.Vito says:

    Trump congratulating law enforcement, denouncing political violence, and saying the person will be prosecuted to the fullest extent.

    Tells the crowd one of them will be standing where he is one day as POTUS. Big cheers.

    Ben Carson present.

  935. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:34 pm
    Wait, you’re NOT rooting for Beto?
    You guys spout the same snark on immigration.

    – I was mocking you with a ridiculous comment since you were making a ridiculous comment about me. But if it makes you feel better to say I’m rooting against Republicans because I have a view didn’t from yours, then so be it.

  936. Phil says:

    Wonder how those Arizona numbers compare to 2016?

  937. Mr.Vito says:

    Candace Owens also present.

  938. Tina says:

    The accusers FB page indicates he follows only drat politicians. He follows no Rs.

    Be careful of the shiny objects.

  939. Phil says:

    I like Candace Owens.

  940. Mr.Vito says:

    I believe today is a Holiday in Nevada, so we’ll see how the three day weekend goes in voting.

  941. Tina says:

    We are doing well in AZ.

    Enema, the Jebot hope and change candidate, has been destroyed.

    Remember, R registration, since 2016 has increased.

  942. Tina says:

    Accuser has a lengthy rap sheet, including a 2002 arrest for making terrorist threats.

  943. Phil says:

    Jury is still out on early voting since it doesn’t really get cooking until tomorrow when it begins statewide.

  944. Robbie says:

    Marc Caputo
    @MarcACaputo

    If the MAGA bomber is indeed Cesar Sayoc, as law enforcement source are now telling multiple media outlets, he’s a registered Broward County Republican who registered in 2016 and voted early in both the primary and the general in 2016.

  945. Phil says:

    Tina, I have really high hopes for Arizona. Believe McSally will make it fine.

  946. Hugh says:

    Ralstons Twitter has a lot of nervous democrats

  947. Phil says:

    Oh no. A registered Republican. You mean like the registered Democrat who shot up a Republican congressional softball practice?

  948. Mr.Vito says:

    962 THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING!!

  949. John says:

    Regarding the mailbomber suspect…not good.
    Here’s picture a his van…
    https://pjmedia.com/blog/liveblogevent/live-blog-107/
    This is a gift wrapped picture postcard Democratic tv ad for the next two years.
    Be prepard for the media malestorm coming.

  950. MichiganGuy says:

    Here is Kamala Harris joking about killing Trump, Pence and Sessions on Ellen but, Trump is causing the violence ok.
    .
    https://twitter.com/TimRunsHisMouth/status/982251329882959872

  951. Hugh says:

    In AZ 1/3 of the vote in and reps lead dem’s by more than 1/3rd. Sounds like a blow out in progress.

  952. NYCmike says:

    John,

    Same I would tell Robbie – NOT ONE REPUBLICAN condones such violence, or attempted violence.

    The media will hyperventilate over Melania’s coat, they will hyperventilate over this.

    As Mr. Vito is pointing out over and over, especially with the link of Trump speaking to an audience of color RIGHT NOW, there is a grown up in the room, and his name is Mr. President…..and he doesn’t visit Pogo Loco.

  953. Mr.Vito says:

    Dan Sweeney
    ?Verified account @Daniel_Sweeney

    The person arrested in the bombing, Cesar Sayoc, is a registered Republican with an Aventura address who has been arrested 10 times, per FDLE, once in 2002 for making a bomb threat. #bomber

    ……………..

    Also Trump’s fault.

  954. Hugh says:

    964. Dumbest comment on this thread

  955. NYCmike says:

    “The person arrested in the bombing, Cesar Sayoc, is a registered Republican with an Aventura address who has been arrested 10 times, per FDLE, once in 2002 for making a bomb threat. #bomber”

    Jeb Bush was Governor in 2002…..Robbie and “CG” to ignore the bomber from now on.

  956. NYCmike says:

    “964. Dumbest comment on this thread”

    -Hugh,

    Robbie is here, give him some time.

  957. Mr.Vito says:

    I literally see vans like that every day in Florida.

    This guy gives these weirdos a bad name. Not fair!

  958. sandiegocitizen says:

    A California poll shows that in Congressional races voters favor Democrats 55% to 37%. It did not poll individual districts. I still believe in the 49th district that Harkey may win, despite the claims by political pundits that she will loss.

  959. Phil says:

    Relax, John.

    Trying to exploit the actions of one loon to make political hay is called overreach. That’s so obvious people see through that. The guy is a nut, and everyone knows it. Knowing Democrats, however, they won’t be able to help themselves.

  960. BayernFan says:

    The media will overplay this as usual.

  961. Phil says:

    Arrested ten times?

    Typical Republican. LOL

  962. sandiegocitizen says:

    968. Am assuming even the leftists will concede that a bomb threat made in 2002 was not motivated by anything President Trump said. The guy was a kook; they exist in both parties.

  963. John says:

    It looks at though as some here didn’t actually read what I posted.
    #1..the pictures on his van had bulls eyes on Democratic people. That’s not good…to say the least.
    #2…if anyone thinks that the D’s will not use this as a propaganda ploy you’re naive.
    #3…a media storm is coming.

    PS-just the facts…now if some of you are feeling a little guilty then I can’t help you.

  964. DW says:

    If the media overreaches it only gives the opportunity to remind voters that Steve Scalise is still alive to run for re-election.

  965. Phil says:

    Feeling guilty? Are you serious? LMAO

    About what exactly.

  966. ReadyFirst says:

    Sigh, it had to be FL! The entire nation again has their head in their hands saying, “Florida again?!”. We’re the nutty uncle, nursing home patient of the USA family.

  967. sandiegocitizen says:

    970. Your right! This has Jeb Bush’s name written all over it.

  968. ReadyFirst says:

    900. Tina. Yep, lots of bumper sticker here. We have one dude on a three wheel bike and lots of baskets with trump signs on them that rides around waiving huge flags.

  969. Mr.Vito says:

    “A California poll shows that in Congressional races voters favor Democrats 55% to 37%.”

    It was 64-36 in 2016 according to wiki.

    2014: 59-39
    2012: 61-37
    2010: 53-44

  970. Mr.Vito says:

    “…opportunity to remind voters that Steve Scalise is still alive…”

    And Rand Paul

  971. RB says:

    For once my state (NJ) seems out of this mess

    BTW…I think Dems take NJ-2 easy and NJ-11 by about 5-7

    I think(hopefully) Lance and McCarthur NJ-3 NJ-7 hold by by under 3

  972. NYCmike says:

    “PS-just the facts…now if some of you are feeling a little guilty then I can’t help you.”

    -I’ll borrow from jason for this response:

    John, GFY!

    Guilty about what, exactly?

    Waiting for all of the facts to come out before worrying about the media response?

    We know what the response will be….same as when Melania wore a “colonial” hat in Africa….OVER THE TOP!

  973. Phil says:

    Well, if we can just hold one of the four NJ seats we will be beating 538 expectations. They have all four gone.

  974. ReadyFirst says:

    889. mnw. Remember, you heard that here a couple weeks ago when you were down in the dumps. I said roughly half the vote would be cast by Election Day. Tons of early and absentee voting here. It’s partly why I thought we would be ok.

  975. NYCmike says:

    Democratic voters in NJ – have spoken with the ones that I know – one of my questions is “Menendez looking to be a lock again, isn’t he?”.

    Their faces tell me that if they are in any way busy on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, getting to the voting place is the LAST THING they will worry about!

  976. Phil says:

    989

    What about indies casting early votes? I think maybe Trump ran even with Hillary in the exits with Indies in Florida. Need to go back and look.

  977. jackj says:

    John is a concern troll who pops in around election time.

  978. Robbie says:

    Greatest false flag operative ever. Rush and the gang swung and missed with their conspiracy theory.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6321331/Suspected-mail-bomber-identified-Cesar-Altier-Sayoc.html

  979. Mr.Vito says:

    The bomber claims to be a Seminole Indian. But has he taken a DNA test?

  980. Mr.Vito says:

    Ben Shapiro
    ?Verified account @benshapiro
    46m46 minutes ago

    Crazy person attacks Republican Congresspeople: blame the crazy.
    Crazy person sends bombs to Democrats: blame the Republicans.

  981. Phil says:

    LOL Good one, Vito.

  982. RB says:

    Menendez is actually supressing Dem turnout in NJ…Democrats have no enthuiasm for him…this may be enough to save NJ-3 and NJ-7

  983. Tina says:

    Yup, registered R, much like the socialist.

  984. lisab says:

    “– Putting your faith in the American people is the surest way to be disappointed.”

    found the hillary supporter

  985. Tina says:

    How long before we find ties between #HoaxBomber and CreepyPornLawyer?
    10:09 AM – Oct 26, 2018

  986. Mr.Vito says:

    “An undercover FBI agent posing as an Atlanta developer seeking to do business with the city of Tallahassee picked up the food tab for a 2016 fundraiser for Mayor Andrew Gillum’s political action committee, Forward Florida.”

    https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2018/10/26/fbi-agent-paid-food-andrew-gillum-fundraiser-documents-reveal/1773826002/

  987. Mr.Vito says:

    Bumper stickers don’t kill people.

    People kill people.

    well, sometimes people kill people.

  988. ReadyFirst says:

    The entire country (except the deranged leftists, who are actually like a crazy Aunt) will look at the fake bombs and say, “Oh, that’s just crazy Uncle Florida”.

  989. Phil says:

    Thanks, Ready.

  990. Wes says:

    Wouldn’t 43-47 be a loss, RF, assuming the first number reflects Trump’s percentage?

  991. Tina says:

    Robert Barnes
    @Barnes_Law
    50m
    He claimed to be a Seminole, and posted support for ISIS. Complete nutjob. twitter.com/samstein/statu…
    View details ·

    Isis job here.

  992. lisab says:

    i imagine this will make all the hardcore democrats go out and vote again

    and maybe a small gain in the remaining vote for the dems?

    i am not sure that saying, “see! see! all you whoite male republicans are crazy deplorables”

    actually helps the dems, especially if he is hispanic.

  993. Tina says:

    I suspected he may have been radicalized.

  994. jason says:

    “Republican who registered in 2016”

    Wow, a Republican that has been less of a Republican than Trump!

  995. ReadyFirst says:

    770. and 774. Sheeple,that’s not correct about those FL early voting counties although I can see why you’d assume that. For some reason the DOE doesn’t have the numbers from those counties on their running tally, even though I know first hand at least 3 of them have been voting all week. That’s great news as I didn’t see their numbers in the EV stats. They will be a future Rep. vote dump. Also, Volusia (Daytona Beach) isn’t all that conservative.

  996. Mr.Vito says:

    “Also, Volusia (Daytona Beach) isn’t all that conservative.”

    No, but it flipped heavily in Trump’s favor in 2016.

  997. Phil says:

    Wes, just went back and looked at the Florida exits. Trump did actually carry indies 47-43.

  998. jason says:

    “NancyPelosi’s exact words were “How DARE anyone blame us for the actions of one mentally sick individual.”

    But that was so 2017.”

  999. ReadyFirst says:

    1007. Wes Oops, yep, I’m dyslexic today, my bad.

  1000. Wes says:

    I get that, Phil. I was being somewhat playful because RF said Trump won FL Indies 43-47–which would in fact be losing them.

  1001. Barrett says:

    The bomber who was caught shouldn’t be treated as some sort of Republican operative looking to impact an election.

    I could care less what his party registration says. He’s a mentally sick individual, and as far as I know from the news I’ve read, the devices weren’t even rigged properly to go off.

    Nobody died, hell nobody even got hurt. The punishment for this man? He’s mentally ill – commit him to a pysch ward and get him out of the mental mess that he’s in.

    Of course, Democrats only believe in mental illness when it suits them. They will push this incident to make sure it is reflective of all Republicans. Hypocritical and unconscionable on their part.

  1002. ReadyFirst says:

    My county, Brevard (strong GOP), has been voting all week and I expect good things, but there is no data in the DOE site yet. Actually, it looks like two of those counties just started today so I stand corrected.

  1003. Tina says:

    This is the craziest thing to happen in Florida since that Muslim wiped out 50 gays and his dad showed up at a Hillary rally. #MAGABomber
    11:10 AM – Oct 26, 2018

    21

    See /r/The_Donald’s other Tweets

  1004. ReadyFirst says:

    1014. Vito, yeah, I guess I’m letting some of my bias of local races bleed through to the presidential level and the two aren’t the same.

  1005. Tina says:

    John Cardillo
    @johncardillo
    55m
    Sayoc had three felony and one drug arrest(s) in Broward County, FL from 1991-2013. Far left Broward County officials cut him sweetheart deals on every single charge. Had they not, he’d probably be in prison. Broward County is horribly broken. pic.twitter.com/dsvbi8eDuM
    View photo ·

  1006. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/package-bomber-cesar-sayoc-was-chippendales-promoter-photo/

    “And we have an an adult entertainment connection.”

    He apparently was also at one time a stripper himself. Add that to the ISIS support, and you have one crazy person.

  1007. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1024. The fact his ancestry appears to be Native American will possibly tone down the media attacks. They would have focused hard on a red-neck Anglo.

  1008. lisab says:

    Barrett,

    agreed, he seems to have mental issues,

    but the press will almost certainly go full robbie on this, and blame trump

    (never go full robbie)

  1009. ReadyFirst says:

    Broward County is a zoo. My dad and other relatives live there and I’ve been going there since the 60’s, to visit my grandparents. It used to be a very nice place. My grandparents owned a restaurant in Hollywood Beach on the intracoastal. Great memories, but it’s nothing at all like it used to be.

  1010. DW says:

    Here is an example of the sort of foolishness you can read on RRH:

    “To win the House we’d need to effectively run the table in the tossups”

    This isn’t true for either party. A quick look at the middle of the dashboard of rankings, as ranked by the three toupees, CNN, Kos, Politico, and Silver (all Dem cheerleaders), along with Fox, shows right in the middle of the pile of tossups is the point where the magic line is placed. So effectively, the party that gets the majority of tossups is the one that gets control. Neither side has to run the table and get them all.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-

    UT_04 R | 201 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.2
    OH_01 R | 202 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 1.1
    VA_02 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.7
    NM_02* R | 204 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | 0.6
    FL_26 R | 205 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
    TX_07 R | 206 | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.3
    TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    NJ_07 R | 208 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | 0.2
    MN_01* D | 209 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    VA_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    MI_08 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    IA_03 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_22 R | 213 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_48 R | 214 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.1
    CA_39* R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    KS_02* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.1
    NY_19 R | 217 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    NC_09* R | 218 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0
    PA_01 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | 0
    WA_08* R | 216 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0
    ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    CA_25 R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.1
    KY_06 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NJ_03 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_10 R | 211 | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.2
    CA_45 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
    IL_06 R | 209 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.6
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | -1.1
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Tlt D | Lk D | -1.7
    KS_03 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_02 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 204 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 203 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 202 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

    *indicates open seat

  1011. DW says:

    NV_03

    Susie Lee (D) 44%
    Danny Tarkanian (R) 46%

    NV_04

    Steven Horsford (D) 47%
    Cresent Hardy (R) 45%

    Paladin Polling 10/24-26/18
    500 Likely voters per district

  1012. phoenixrisen says:

    #1029 — O.O Wow, the GOP has a great shot at both those districts.

  1013. DW says:

    The polling of NV_03 and NV_04 seems consistent with what we are seeing out of the early voting numbers.

  1014. Robbie says:

    As soon as it became clear the bomber was a Trump loving Republican, Rush Limbaugh stopped discussing the topic on his show and started talking about Mueller and the deep state. Remember, El Rushbo suggested the bombs were a false flag operation on Wednesday.

    Rush Limbaugh once boasted of 20 million listeners a week, but now boasts just 13 million a week. Given that he’s become a more listened to version of Alex Jones, it’s not hard to understand why he’s lost about 1/3 of his listeners.

  1015. Wes says:

    Phoenix, 1029 isn’t real.

  1016. wheelz91 says:

    I guess he was not a member of the Green Party .
    However as crazy as the guy is … according to Claire he should be a Democrat.

  1017. Waingro says:

    “Republican who registered in 2016”

    Wow, a Republican that has been less of a Republican than Trump!”

    Sounds like one of those Bernie Bros who switched over to supporting Trump after Hillary knocked The Bern out.

  1018. phoenixrisen says:

    Wes, you’re right. LOL!! I missed the last sentence.

  1019. SWAG Polling says:

    Never trust Paladin Polls.

  1020. DW says:

    I need Polaris to validate those NV polls.

  1021. Waingro says:

    Manu Raju
    ?Verified account @mkraju
    7m7 minutes ago

    “He appears to be a partisan,” Sessions on suspected bomber when asked why Democrats were being targeted, declining to comment further
    35 replies 65 retweets 158 likes

  1022. Phil says:

    Paladin polls are indeed made up. I like DW as much as anyone, but they are for entertainment purposes only and almost always on the wishful thinking side. If only they were real the GOP would have sixty in the senate and 260 in the House along with 35 governorships. LOL

  1023. DW says:

    Actually, those Paladin polls of NV are similar to what Emerson recently found, albeit with a smaller sample size.

  1024. Waingro says:

    Here is #MAGABomber’s apparent Twitter account. I think he was just a LITTLE obsessed with Gillum.

    https://twitter.com/hardrockintlent/with_replies

  1025. DW says:

    MI-Senate – MSU

    Stabenow 49%
    James 42%

  1026. phoenixrisen says:

    1044 — Quite good for a university poll. I would venture Stabenow is up 4-5 right now but James is closing fast.

  1027. NYCmike says:

    Who would rather have Republicans in power?

    Rush? or Robbie?

  1028. Wes says:

    What’s going on in Michigan? Stabenow has been steadily shedding support lately. I’m glad to see James is gaining, but I am definitely curious as to the reason for it.

  1029. wheelz91 says:

    Hope we get a Paladin Polling for Michigan Senate. (Fake but Accurate)

  1030. Wes says:

    That is a tough one, Mikey. Limbaugh backs looms such as O’Donnell. Robbie actually voices support for electorally viable Republicans but clearly wants revenge on the GOP because JEB! wasn’t the 2016 nominee.

  1031. RB says:

    ‘Actor Aaron Booth’ has been waiting on those Paladin numbers

  1032. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “Rush Limbaugh once boasted of 20 million listeners a week, but now boasts just 13 million a week. Given that he’s become a more listened to version of Alex Jones, it’s not hard to understand why he’s lost about 1/3 of his listeners.”

    Talk radio is fading away. Its listeners are primarily over 60 years of age. Younger people rarely listen to the radio.

  1033. mnw says:

    SDC 1051

    Why, I listened to him in the car today! I guess that doesn’t really refute your point, though.

  1034. Memphis says:

    I listen to Rush often. Always by podcast so what I hear is as little as 6 or as much as 48 hours old. He did have some callers suggest the bomber was a false flag operation and he explained how that is believable in light of the events since 2016 (FISAgate). I didn’t hear him promote that however.

    Robbie….I guess you are one of the remaining 13 million daily listeners who actually hear is real time. May want to try podcasting.

  1035. CG says:

    Rush Limbaugh specifically theorized the Clintons were behind the “bombs” and alluded to all the people some claim they killed back in Arkansas.

    But you didn’t have to listen to Rush Limbaugh to hear the “false flag” theory. People on here over the past couple of days stated it as fact. They know who they are.

  1036. NYCmike says:

    It’s pretty easy to copy and paste his remarks, “CG”.

    It would be nice to see exactly what he said.

  1037. Robbie says:

    The false flag conservatives. The grifter Candice Owens and worthless Rush lead the pack.

    https://www.weeklystandard.com/andrew-egger/the-arrest-of-bomber-cesar-sayoc-and-the-false-flag-conservatives

  1038. CG says:

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com

    There’s a feature that allows you to read archives by day.

  1039. NYCmike says:

    “There’s a feature that allows you to read archives by day.”

    -Exactly. Since you listened to the show, and heard him “specifically” say these things, you will know exactly where the remarks are which will back up your statement about what he said on the radio.

    Otherwise, you are just blowing smoke.

  1040. CG says:

    Don’t listen to the show. I read the archives and heard other reports.

  1041. CG says:

    I see just now Rush is still saying its a false flag hoax.

  1042. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 26, 2018 at 3:49 pm
    Who would rather have Republicans in power?
    Rush? or Robbie?

    – I would much rather have a Republican in power. In fact, I can’t wait for the day someone like Nikki Haley wins so we will have an actual Republican in power.

    You and Rush prefer Trump who is clearly not a Republican in any normal sense of the word. Of course, you’ve spent the last 8 years supporting Tea Party losers so I’m not surprised. How’s your boy Chris McDaniel doing?

  1043. NYCmike says:

    ” I read the archives and heard other reports.”

    -Even better. Then you will definitely know exactly where you read these statements you said he made.

    Copy and paste them. It will be good to see exact words.

  1044. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    October 26, 2018 at 3:52 pm
    That is a tough one, Mikey. Limbaugh backs looms such as O’Donnell. Robbie actually voices support for electorally viable Republicans but clearly wants revenge on the GOP because JEB! wasn’t the 2016 nominee.

    – Ah, yes. The old Jeb canard.

  1045. NYCmike says:

    “– I would much rather have a Republican in power. In fact, I can’t wait for the day someone like Nikki Haley wins so we will have an actual Republican in power.”

    -What policies will Haley differ much with Trump?

    List them so we can have a substantive conversation, instead of you just regurgitating MSM reports.

    Maybe you will convince me that Trump is really a Democrat, and Haley will be the more conservative person who can actually win the election for President.

  1046. Robbie says:

    Memphis says:
    October 26, 2018 at 4:10 pm
    Robbie….I guess you are one of the remaining 13 million daily listeners who actually hear is real time. May want to try podcasting.

    – I read about Rush’s asinine comments on Twitter. The last time I listened to him for an extended period was 2014 before he came a total fraud and started shilling for Trump in the primary.

  1047. DW says:

    Siena to re-poll PA_01 and NC_09.

    Still no interest in NV_03, NV_04, or AZ_01.

  1048. CG says:

    Do you have any idea how many posts it would take to post three hours worth of transcripts from Wed and Thurs? I haven’t looked at his website today yet.

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com

    just go look for yourself NYC. What are you denying he said?

  1049. Waingro says:

    Nathan Gonzales
    ? @nathanlgonzales

    We just moved #MOSen from Toss-up —> Tilt Republican.

    https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate

  1050. Tina says:

    1h
    (1/2) The five counties with the highest early voting turnout* so far are Williamson (22.8%), Comal (22.6%), Hays (20.8%), Collin (20.6%) and Lubbock (20.5%). President Trump received 56% of the vote in these five counties in 2016. * % of registered voters already voting.

  1051. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE

    bodybuilding, Native American Florida strip-club worker…
    #########################
    So, the mail bomber is a relative of
    Chief Elizabeth Warren!

  1052. Tina says:

    The battle of the libs on Faux News. Shepardly Cnn lite Smith and Wallace.

    Wallace thrashed poor little Smith.

    Watch him be suspended

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/fox-hosts-in-fiery-duel-shepard-smith-called-out-by-chris-wallace-for-blaming-president-trump-for-mail-bomber-video/

  1053. lisab says:

    who on hhr stated that it was a false flag as a fact?

    as one of the dems said, they cannot even organize voters in florida, it would be impressive if the could run a false flag operation

  1054. Tina says:

    Not very impressive pressers from Jeff sessions and Wrong Wray.

    Nobody knew nuffin.

  1055. DW says:

    Another stroke of brilliance from RRH:

    “There are more Dems in the US than Repubs but Dems vote less frequently.
    If Dem intensity = GOP intensity that does not equal a 50-50 election, it equals a medium-sized wave.”

    President Hillary Clinton agrees.

  1056. Tina says:

    Chuck Ross
    @ChuckRossDC
    15m
    NBC hasn’t responded to inquiries about why it sat on info discrediting Avenatti and Swetnick for 3 weeks. dailycaller.com/2018/10/26/nbc… @dailycaller

    And no comment from the Morning Transgenders?

  1057. BayernFan says:

    this is kinda like the billy bush tape. Everyone thought that was the end. Turned out to be a big nothingburger.

    People know what’s going on and what it at stake in this election.

    No Florida nutjob is gonna change the trajectory of this election.

    If the media and the Dems try to make it into something more…. and they will…. its likely to backfire on them at the polls. Just like 2016.

  1058. Tina says:

    Follow
    NV update 9am 10/26. Dem lead down to 3480 with Lyon county still to come. I expect it to change to about 3000 later. Dem lead is decreasing!
    9:30 AM – 26 Oct 2018

  1059. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1074. “Another stroke of brilliance from RRH:
    “There are more Dems in the US than Repubs but Dems vote less frequently.
    If Dem intensity = GOP intensity that does not equal a 50-50 election, it equals a medium-sized wave.””

    I suppose the large number of independent and non-party registered voters don’t figure into this guy’s assumptions.

  1060. DW says:

    Yesterday Siena confirmed the 9 point lead lead the Republican has in OH_01–matching their first poll of the race, so today Gonzales moves it from Lean R to just Tilt R.

  1061. CG says:

    Unlike a guy who admitted committing sexual assault, I do not know why anyone would or should change their vote over this. Sayoc is not on the ballot.

    People in the political arena, on all sides, need to behave better. No, they don’t cause crazy or evil people to do things, but they can sure entice the crazy. If they pander to them, it makes situations a lot worse. Everyone should acknowledge there are crazy people on both sides capable of really, really bad s.tuff. It doesn’t mean *you* are crazy or would do this. The percentage is very small, but those people are out there. Thwarting them should not be a partisan matter.

    Comedians should think twice about beheading cartoons. Politicians should stop talking about “kicking” their opponents or stomping on their face with golf spikes or accosting them at restaurants or gas stations or outside their homes, or bodyslamming anyone or posting violent GIF s online.

    Everyone in a position of power needs to look in the mirror on this.

  1062. Tina says:

    https://youtu.be/wxDRqeuLNag

    Best Campaign Ad on Trump.

    Courtesy of the Whale Michael Moore.

  1063. Phil says:

    1076

    BayernFan absolutely gets it….and yes, people know the guy was a nut. Any effort by the Democrats or their MSM to make it into anything more will absolutely backfire.

  1064. Tina says:

    Yeah, a few days ago, trump was hitler.

    Now trump gave us the Chippendale Bomber aka Hoaxabombas.

    By next week, the Jebots will be touting Muh Russian again.

  1065. Cash Cow TM says:

    Same ol, same ol…Cow gets the call, does all the hard work, then Feds rush in to make the bust and take credit.

  1066. Cash Cow TM says:

    Mebbe the FL loon was a left winger who suddenly became a right winger in 2016 as part of a long range plot…because he KNEW he was gunna go all ‘mail bomber” in 2018 in order to embarrass Trump and the Rebublicans just 2 weeks from the mid-term election.

  1067. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The Seminole tribe has already distanced themselves from Sayoc, saying there is no evidence he is a member of the tribe. Assume the news release is ready to be released after any DNA test saying: “Membership in the Seminole tribe is determined by the tribe, and not by DNA testing. Sayoc’s DNA test can say he is 100% Native American; but he still isn’t a Seminole tribe member.” Dare leftists to accuse the tribe of racism for this type of statement, like they did the Cherokee Nation for its statement about Elizabeth Warren.

  1068. ReadyFirst says:

    Nobody but the lefties care about the faux bomber now. To everyone else it’s crazy uncle FL. We’re out now to go win our first night of Halloween costume contests. Good luck arguing with the lefties here.

  1069. CG says:

    Did he claim to be a Seminole or just work for the Casino or claim to work for the casino?

  1070. Robbie says:

    ReadyFirst says:
    October 26, 2018 at 5:35 pm
    Nobody but the lefties care about the faux bomber now.

    – Faux bomber? Today the FBI said these bombs were not a hoax.

    It’s sad a drug abusing fool like Rush Limbaugh or a grifter like Candace Owens are seen as more honest.

  1071. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cesar Sayoc
    Cesar Sayoc
    Cesar Sayoc

    Scarey C[h]aos

  1072. Tina says:

    Mentally Ill this terrorist was.

    In addition,Mao weightlifting and roids.

  1073. NYCmike says:

    “Rush Limbaugh specifically theorized the Clintons were behind the “bombs” and alluded to all the people some claim they killed back in Arkansas.”

    -“CG” now says “Do you have any idea how many posts it would take to post three hours worth of transcripts from Wed and Thurs?”

    “specifically” means something different to “CG”.

    You made a statement about what he said. Then you said “Don’t listen to the show. I read the archives and heard other reports.”.

    Somehow, while you were reading the transcripts, the ability to recall the order of what he said excaped you…….but of course you can remember that he did say something about false flag operations……

    You are just like the MSM……no facts to back up the assertion.

  1074. NYCmike says:

    “What are you denying he said?”

    -Not denying anything.

    Just asking for proof for the statement you made about what he said.

    Or are you related to Blaisey-Ford?

  1075. Phil says:

    Ah, but Tina, you are leaving out the most important part……he was a registered Republican. That’s all you need to know.

  1076. CG says:

    Rush Limbaugh’s website has like 11 or 12 transcript entries every day. I don’t know if he said it Wed or Thurs or which segment. He talked about this. What are you denying he said? You are refusing to go to his website and look for yourself.

  1077. CG says:

    Go to his website, and start reading the transcripts from 10/24 and 10/25. It’s easy to do, but will take you some time. If you want a “shortcut”, then Google what he has been saying. Warning though, you may get MSM links, instead of the transcripts right off his site. If you Heart Rush, you should enjoy every minute of it. But I am not going to do your work for you.

  1078. Todd McCain says:

    Trump to get back to West Virginia, Montana and Indiana next week!

  1079. CG says:

    Now, unlike Blasey-Ford, I told you the address and the day(s), so get on it.

  1080. Mr.Vito says:

    Hi, ——-! I’m Susan, a MoveOn volunteer. With less than 2 weeks until Election Day, we’re campaigning to build the Blue Wave in Florida! By uniting together we can end Republican control of Congress-will you pledge to vote blue on Nov 6? Reply YES & we’ll share periodic texts from MoveOn’s 668366 number about how you can make a difference. (Msg/Data Rates May Apply)

    Should I reply?

  1081. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    I don’t care what Limbaugh said.

    You are the one stating he said something. You said you read it already.

    Did you read it, or hear it, on your own?

    Or are you repeating what you heard from someone else?

    If so, say so. Then we know that you are just repeating other peoples words, just like the MSM does.

    NO VERIFICATION.

  1082. CG says:

    Read it on his website earlier this week. It was a theory he proposed, that the Clintons planned this out to help Democrats.

  1083. NYCmike says:

    ” But I am not going to do your work for you.”

    -Got it…..you knowingly made a statement earlier which you have no proof of, just hearsay.

    Typical.

  1084. Phil says:

    Vito, YES. Tell them you’re all in.

  1085. CG says:

    Enjoy the weekend

  1086. NYCmike says:

    “Read it on his website earlier this week.”

    -But can’t remember the day? Or where?

    Memory loss isn’t good at your age.

  1087. CG says:

    Wed or Thurs. 50/50 chance. It’s just two days. The Caravan moves faster than you.

  1088. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    Still waiting for the policy differences of Trump and Haley……I would think it would be very easy seeing as how you despise Trump so much, and Haley is clearly conservative.

  1089. Tina says:

    Yes Phil, I got that part from the Jebots.

  1090. NYCmike says:

    Got it.

    You went to press (comment button) with no proof to back it up.

    Typical MSM toadie.

  1091. Mr.Vito says:

    I’ll tell them to send more money to Beto.

  1092. NYCmike says:

    MCXI

  1093. RB says:

    MN-8 seems like a GOP get + PA-14(redistricting p/u) means the dems need 25(which seems more likely than not)…but
    NV-3 and MN-1 would put that at 27…NV-4 seems like stetch…if it is 27 than the dems will need more than just low hanging fruit(two of which were FL-26 and FL-27)

    My hunch is the GOP gets one of the two tosses and the dems will need 26

  1094. dblaikie says:

    For quite awhile I have been saying that Michigan was in play. James still has an uphill climb, but climb it he might. Once again I will say it all comes down to the African American vote in Detroit. Some posters here have disagreed with that and I guess claim that nothing will change in the Detroit voting pattern. But if they think that they don’t know Detroit. Debbie will still win Detroit, but who knows how many will stay home or switch votes to support a successful African American from Michigan. That is the unknown intangible of this race.

  1095. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    This decision from the European Court of Human Rights is repulsive:

    “The court’s decision comes after it rejected an Austrian woman’s claim that her previous conviction for calling Muhammad a pedophile, due to his marriage to a 6-year-old girl, violated her freedom of speech.

    The ECHR ruled Austrian courts had “carefully balanced her right to freedom of expression with the right of others to have their religious feelings protected.”

    The woman, in her late 40s and identified only as E.S., claimed during two public seminars in 2009 that Muhammad’s marriage to a young girl was akin to “pedophilia.”

    According to Islamic tradition, the marriage between Muhammad and a 6-year-old girl was consummated when she was 9 years old and he was about 50.

    The Austrian woman stated in her seminars that Muhammad “liked to do it with children” and “… A 56-year-old and a 6-year-old? … What do we call it, if it is not pedophilia?”

    A Vienna court convicted her in 2011 of disparaging religious doctrines, ordering her to pay a $547 fine, plus legal costs. The ruling was later upheld by an Austrian appeals court.

    The woman argued her comments fell within her right of freedom of expression and that religious groups must tolerate criticism. She also argued her comments were intended to contribute to public debate and not designed to defame Muhammad.

    The ECHR said the Austrian court’s decision “served the legitimate aim of preserving religious peace.”

  1096. NYCmike says:

    “The ECHR said the Austrian court’s decision “served the legitimate aim of preserving religious peace.””

    -Neville Chamberlain could not have said it any better!

  1097. mnw says:

    1068 Waingro

    I think my own absentee ballot yesterday probably turned the tide.

    Her Kavanaugh NO probably prevented her reelection.

  1098. Tina says:

    Shannon Bream
    @ShannonBream
    Follow
    BREAKING: Sen @ChuckGrassley refers Avenatti for ADDITIONAL criminal investigation pic.twitter.com/9IJiCySdnh
    3:15 PM – 26 Oct 2018

    Twitter
    By: Shannon Bream @ShannonBream

    Grassley makes an additional criminal referral on porn lawyah.

  1099. Skippy says:

    John James and Karen Housley will both come up short. But they will finish well and will remain viable candidates with stronger name recognition when opportunities again presents themselves for both of these individuals.

    It’s all good.

  1100. NYCmike says:

    John James, Karen Housley, Bob Hugins – come on, one of them will come thru!?!?

  1101. Messy says:

    187. Excuse me? I guess you believe in fairy tales too….

  1102. mnw says:

    Cold & wet in Charlotte tonite. Bojangles (the venue) is full, & some people waited all night in the rain, but there weren’t those blocks-long lines this time.

    I would’ve preferred that Trump ignore the idiot bomber thing altogether tonight.

  1103. Proud Obamacon says:

    Sad sad times in the United States of America. Assassination attempts on ex-presidents and leaders, and leave it to the ReTHUGs to peddle conspiracy theories.. Putin and the rest of the world’s laughing at us.

  1104. Proud Obamacon says:

    Red States go fund yourselves. Blue states not propping yall up. Go resurrect your beloved CSA and leave my great USA the hell alone. USA! USA!

  1105. Phil says:

    Write another check to Beto, PO.

    Give until it hurts.

  1106. Proud Obamacon says:

    Ex-presidents and leaders are victims of attempted assassinations and Phil just wants to trash talk about Beto.. quite sad.

  1107. Phil says:

    “Ex presidents and leaders are victims of attempted assassinations”

    Oh, you mean like gunning down a congressman at a baseball practice? That kind of assassination?

    Do tell.

  1108. Redmen4ever says:

    based on state generic polls carefully apportioned to CDs and district polls where available:

    AZ01 – toss up
    NV03 – probable R
    NV04 – lean D

    (AZ02 – probable D and all other districts safe the obvious way)

    Because the above are mostly based on interpolations, feel free to move the ratings one up or down if you have a good sense of the relative strengths of the candidates.

  1109. Proud Obamacon says:

    “Oh, you mean like gunning down a congressman at a baseball practice? That kind of assassination?”

    Yes. /smh

  1110. Redmen4ever says:

    Wikipedia has a running list of attempted assassinations of recent Presidents. The perpetrators come from all across the political spectrum and also from off the political spectrum.

    Putting people into the crosshairs of gun sites, like holding up severed heads, should be off the reservation.

    Hoax ricin letters such as were recently sent to the WH, the Pentagon and the President’s adult children, and hoax pipe bombs such as were just sent to various politicians and news agencies are not jokes or freedom of speech, they are acts of terrorism.

  1111. NYCmike says:

    The early voting must be going well for Republicans for PO to show up with that whopper!

  1112. Proud Obamacon says:

    When the congressmen were shot at, there was no claim of “false flag” or conspiracy theories. Democrats came together with Republicans and we were united against the lunatic shooter. Can’t say that now… very very sad.

    At this rate, a successful terrorist attack could take place and GOP would just call it fake or staged or whatever.

    Alex Jones takeover of the GOP is complete. And you all have gotten in line. Funny thing, history never forgets.

  1113. NYCmike says:

    “Funny thing, history never forgets.”

    -Harry Reid and the Nuclear Option……YUP, history never forgets.

  1114. Proud Obamacon says:

    “hoax pipe bombs such as were just sent to various politicians”

    Not hoax. They were real.

  1115. Redmen4ever says:

    PO: are you really trying to justify sending hoax ricin to the WH, the Pentagon and the President’s adult children?

    Get a hold of yourself, man, before you go off the deep end. Your attempt to filter the insanity you find inconvenient reveals that you are partisan. I’m o.k. with a certain degree of partisanship. But, once you cross over the line between having a point of view, and become a denier, you lose all credibility.

    Notice that CNN calls the pipe bombs in this particular case are “potential” bombs:

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/26/politics/pipe-bombs-suspicious-packages-what-we-know/index.html

    To refer to what I said, I said hoax ricin letters and hoax pipe bombs are not jokes or free speech, they’re acts of terrorism. I didn’t say these particular pipe bombs were hoax bombs. I said even if they were hoax bombs, they’re acts of terrorism.

  1116. mnw says:

    There’s some curious poll stuff going on, but I’m not going to plop it down in the middle of this idiot’s trollfest– & then watch the thread go right back to feeding this huge fool.

  1117. Phil says:

    Go ahead and put it out there, mnw. We can discuss it at the same time we ignore the troll.

  1118. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Well said by Sessions. PO should be proud of the Attorney General:

    “Sessions cautioned that Sayoc had only been charged, not convicted, but added: “Let this be a lesson to anyone regardless of their political beliefs that we will bring the full force of law against anyone who attempts to use threats, intimidation and outright violence to further an agenda. We will find you, we will prosecute you to the fullest extent of the law.””

  1119. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan
    .
    Governor
    .
    Whitmer (D) 48%
    Schuette (R) 43%
    .
    Senate
    .
    Stabenow (D) 52%
    James (R) 46%
    .
    Mitchell Research Poll
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/MI_8-18_Press_Release_10-26-18.pdf

  1120. mnw says:

    OK, Phil

    Two things:

    1) Gonzalez, one of the lefty polling gurus DW includes in his dashboards, moved MO SEN from Toss to Lean R today. I find that noteworthy, because there has been no NEW polling recently, EXCEPT Hawley’s internal claiming he was up by 6 points. Obviously, the conventional wisdom about MO being a “pure tossup” is starting to break up.

    2) In AZ SEN, a pollster named Digital Orbital put out a poll a few days ago (4 days?), with Sinema up by 4. Today, Digital Polling withdrew that poll, & stated that they believe the race now Leans R to McSally, BECAUSE OF THE EV they’re seeing in AZ. This is huge, imo, because it’s the first time one of the big gurus have admitted that EV is nullifying their polling model.

    Hope that makes sense.

    Trump is coming to Columbia, MO the day after Halloween, so I guess the national GOP doesn’t think MO is quite a done deal. There is no other reason for Trump to visit MO other than to help Hawley.

    Maybe they’re running out of places for Trump to help out? In Columbia, MO, he can expect an unusually robust college-based protest, I bet.

  1121. Phil says:

    Looks like James has made it very respectable in Michigan. Kudos to him. By all appearances he has been an excellent candidate.

  1122. Proud Obamacon says:

    “PO: are you really trying to justify sending hoax ricin to the WH, the Pentagon and the President’s adult children?”

    Say wha? What did i say that could even remotely be interpreted as justifying sending ricin to the WH?

  1123. Phil says:

    Mnw, very interesting about Arizona. Thanks for the intel. We just aren’t getting a lot of polling out of that state recently. I notice 538 continues to predict McSally is down there. He has her at -1.7 I think, but of course with the absence of polling recently that number has been static. I keep hoping for a Mason-Dixon poll out of both Mo and Arizona soon. They are a pretty solid outfit.

  1124. Bitterlaw says:

    Lunatics hear what they want. This lunatic heard what he wanted from Trump even if Trump did not say it. Antifa members hear what they want to justify violence.

  1125. Skippy says:

    John James’s numbers in the Mitchell Research Poll for October 26 looks better than any poll numbers Trump had leading up to Election Day.

    John James is running one hell of a race. According to this poll James is losing the White vote by 5%. Needs to pull ahead with this group on Election Day. Poll also shows James getting 18% of the black vote which is exactly what he needs to pull off the upset.

    This sucker isn’t over. Not by a long shot.

  1126. Hugh says:

    In AZ the cake is baked. The EV for McSally cannot be made up. The dems are getting crushed.

  1127. Phil says:

    Hugh, I’m not sure I’d go that far yet, but the Arizona numbers are really looking good. I expect McSally to hold the seat.

  1128. Mr.Vito says:

    Republicans won Washoe by a smidge again today.

  1129. Scooby77 says:

    538 had a podcast today, and they are dead set against considering early voting. Like, they are upset that people even asked them about why they don’t include that. They made an exception for Ralston and for “a couple people in Florida,” whatever that means. I just don’t know how you can ignore this, or count it in the “likely voter” column.

  1130. phoenixrisen says:

    Wes and Phil, pertaining to John James if he wins he is presidential material down the road. Trump raves about him. He is the most promising of upcoming GOP future presidential candidates down the road. If you could dream up the perfect GOP candidate that appeals to all demographics, he would be it. The Dems are scrambling to save Stabenow probably for this reason alone. His latest ad was incredible. Stabenow’s support is very soft because she is a paycheck do nothing senator, no legislative achievements. She only got elected because Spencer Abraham bungled his re-election bid 20 years ago.

  1131. phoenixrisen says:

    Another thing of note. Real Clear Politics has moved the Senate race in Michigan from likely to lean Democrat.

  1132. phoenixrisen says:

    1145 — Looking at those numbers I definitely agree. Needs to work the Bible Belt of Ottawa and Kent Counties and Macomb and Oakland in the east. He does that through ads and campaign stops and he’ll win.

  1133. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena started polling CA-45.

    And with 0 votes counted:

    “Katie Porter, the Democratic candidate, leads our poll so far.”

  1134. phoenixrisen says:

    One other thing about James, he was born and raised in Detroit, graduated from Birmingham Brother Rice. Still lives near the Detroit area from what I know.

  1135. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!
    .
    More than half of Arizona voters have already sent in their ballots.
    .
    Republicans 50%
    Democrats 41%
    .
    http://createsend.com/t/i-AE4C6BF45EBC4FB72540EF23F30FEDED

  1136. Hugh says:

    Told you so. AZ in the bag

  1137. mnw says:

    Hugh 1156 & everyone

    Look at 1149.

    For pollsters to ignore EV numbers like that in AZ? That’s willful blindness. They risk getting into Baghdad Bob territory.

  1138. mnw says:

    Rush gave a huge shoutout to James today. Called him the “a man who is living the American Dream,” etc.

  1139. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!
    .
    Ohio Early Voting
    .
    Republicans 243,411…….. 49.59%
    Democrats 190,737………. 38.86%
    Unaffiliated 56,683………11.55%
    .
    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

  1140. mnw says:

    Hugh’s AZ poll has immigration rising to the top issue, too.

  1141. MichiganGuy says:

    Senator Renacci?

  1142. Hugh says:

    And mnw Claire your nemisis is going down bigly.

  1143. Wes says:

    Phoenix, I still have a hard time believing Stabenow will lose. She’s been a mainstay in MI politics for decades and has only ever lost in 1994 (gubernatorial primary and as LG candidate ). Despite being an uncharismatic slob, she’s been nearly invincible and has generally clobbered her opponents. I would love to see James win, but I’m still skeptical he can do it even with the state’s nascent willingness to support narrowly a GOP presidential candidate.

  1144. Hugh says:

    Any poll with HC as the number one issue is a joke. Most voters would list that 3rd or 4th. This is opposite world.

  1145. MichiganGuy says:

    Stabenow will win but, the rest of the country is seeing a red wave. We may just may keep the House.

  1146. Chicon says:

    Robbie says:
    October 26, 2018 at 12:26 pm

    – Putting your faith in the American people is the surest way to be disappointed.

    Such a revealing post about how he sees the world.

  1147. mnw says:

    Hugh 1162

    Sure hope so. I guess if the national GOP was absolutely SURE of that, Trump wouldn’t be coming to Columbia, MO next week, though.

    As I posted above, there’s no other conceivable reason for Trump to come to MO except Hawley… unless he cares greatly about Missouri Auditor.

  1148. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, maybe Trump just has a craving for St. Louis-style pizza?

  1149. Chicon says:

    Maybe he wants to catch a Blues game?

  1150. mnw says:

    MG & Chicon

    Funny.

    He’s gonna get protested in Columbia, thass fer shur!

  1151. phoenixrisen says:

    1161 — Told you 🙂 The Midwest is turning red again. Sharrod Brown’s campaign has to be chewing their nails off looking at these EV totals.

    1163 — Wes, don’t discount James’ chances. The six point lead in the Mitchell poll is quite interesting. Showing Stabenow at 52% means there is a soft underbelly regarding hitting her favorables with negative ads which James has been doing. The more exposure James gets, the more people will consider him. Rush giving him a shout out today is big as well. This race is getting a lot of national interest suddenly and that is going to perk up those undecided Michigan voters to look harder at James and what they see I am willing to bet, they will like a lot.

  1152. Mr.Vito says:

    looks like a slightly better day in Clark for Dems

    +2884

  1153. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Trump needs to make a trip to Michigan.

  1154. michael corleone says:

    Vito – do you have any info on Clark absentees? What about the rurals?

  1155. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Great prediction about California’s future: “from Soy Milk to Soylent Green.”

  1156. MichiganGuy says:

    Dems won Clark by almost 3,000, 11 points. Firewall in South at 18K.
    .
    11.9k Dems (45.4%)
    9.0k GOP (34.4%)
    5.3k Oth (20.3%)
    total votes 26.1k

  1157. Mr.Vito says:

    The raw VBM file shows a difference of 1400 in favor of Dems in Clark, but the uploaded number keeps tracking behind that, so I can’t say, other than that raw number is fairly even out of nearly 40000.

    No rurals reported today, and a few did not even report yesterdays numbers.

  1158. Wes says:

    Phoenix, I’ll believe James can beat Stabenow when the networks call the race for him. Michigan has been heavily Dem on the Senate level since the 1950s with Republicans winning only three Senate races in the state since then. I would love to see James win, but right now I see small chance of his winning.

  1159. Mr.Vito says:

    Heller won in 2012.

    Preliminarily (nvsos hasn’t updated) Clark total ballots at the moment are about 85% of 2012 totals through week1.

    But that year, Clark had given the Dems a 40000 net after one week.

  1160. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, today should have been Nevada Day, which is a state holiday. All the govt workers would have been off, and a good day from Clark would be expected.

  1161. wheelz91 says:

    I really wish Sherrod Brown would lose in Ohio.
    He is so smug and a total ass. That would make my year to
    See him lose to Renacci.

  1162. Wes says:

    I think Heller wins. He’s a solid campaigner, and Dems once again sent an unvetted candidate against him. Talrk did the right thing by dropping out of the race and letting Heller focus on the general.

    Given his history, Tark probably still loses the House race, but that’s a small annoyance compared to losing a Senate seat.

  1163. Wes says:

    Brown probably hangs on unless Renacci can get traction off the new assault allegation.

  1164. Wes says:

    My Senate rankings updated to reflect recent events:

    Solid R Hold-

    UT
    WY
    NE
    MS (1)
    MS (2)

    Likely R Hold-

    TX
    TN

    Lean R Hold-

    NV
    AZ

    Likely R Pickup-

    ND

    Lean R Pickup-

    MO
    IN
    FL

    Lean D Hold-

    MT

    Likely D Hold-

    NM
    MN (2)
    WI
    MI
    WV
    OH
    NJ

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    CA
    WA
    MN (1)
    PA
    VA
    DE
    NY
    CT
    RI
    MA

    Solid I Hold-

    VT
    ME

  1165. Wes says:

    Solid R Hold-

    ID
    AZ
    WY
    NE
    TX
    AR
    TN
    AL
    SC
    MD
    MA

    Likely R Hold-

    OK
    GA
    VT
    NH

    Lean R Hold-

    NV
    KS
    SD
    OH

    Likely R Pickup-

    AK

    Lean D Pickup-

    IA
    WI
    FL
    ME

    Likely D Pickup-

    NM

    Lean D Hold-

    OR

    Likely D Hold-

    CO
    MN
    CT
    RI

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    CA
    PA
    NY

  1166. Wes says:

    Somehow I skipped over IL and MI. Both are in the Likely D Pickup category.

  1167. MichiganGuy says:

    BOOM!
    .
    Colorado Early Voting
    .
    Republicans..168,065
    Democrats….162,906
    Unaffiliated.132,066
    .
    https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2018/10/26/file_attachments/1096069/Ballots%20Returned%20Oct.%2026,%202018.pdf
    —————————————————————————————————————
    There are 8,000 more Democrats registered voters and 168,000 more Unaffiliated voters in Colorado but, as you can see Republicans voters are the most energized!

  1168. Mr.Vito says:

    I am fascinated that I can keep watching these Trump rallies without getting bored. I didn’t watch them in 2016. I guess Mark Harris is a pastor… he was a very good speaker. Ted Budd was good also.

  1169. MichiganGuy says:

    Governor:

    Solid R Hold-

    ID
    AZ
    WY
    NE
    TX
    AR
    TN
    AL
    SC
    MD
    MA

    Likely R Hold-

    OK
    VT
    NH

    Lean R Hold-

    NV
    KS
    SD
    OH
    GA
    FL
    WI
    IA

    Lean R Pickup-

    AK
    OR

    Lean D Pickup-

    ME
    MI
    NM

    Likely D Pickup-

    IL

    Lean D Hold-

    MN
    CO

    Likely D Hold-

    CT
    RI

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    CA
    PA
    NY

    Senate:

    Solid R Hold-

    UT
    WY
    NE
    MS (1)

    Likely R Hold-

    TX
    TN

    Lean R Hold-

    NV
    AZ
    MS (2)

    Likely R Pickup-

    ND

    Lean R Pickup-

    MO
    IN
    FL
    MT

    Lean D Hold-

    MI
    OH
    NJ
    MN (2)
    WI
    WV

    Solid D Hold-

    HI
    CA
    WA
    MN (1)
    PA
    VA
    DE
    NY
    CT
    RI
    MA
    NM

    Solid I Hold-

    VT
    ME
    .
    Disclaimer: Not my final prediction.

  1170. Tina says:

    And some more good news:

    Sec. Kirstjen Nielsen
    @SecNielsen

    Very proud today to acknowledge the completion of the first section of @POTUS’ border wall. Thank you @CBP and all our partners that are helping us to deploy new border wall systems. pic.twitter.com/EXCYFA73iA
    5:33 PM – 26 Oct 2018

    Twitter
    By: Sec. Kirstjen Nielsen @SecNielsen

  1171. Tina says:

    Re: Trump Rally’s:

    10 more.

    (I think 2 in Florida).

  1172. Redmen4ever says:

    1st of 3

    Ohio Senate (and Gov?): another murder-suicide (but without the murder part). We should be competitive in this Senate race (and should easily retain the Gubernatorialship). Instead, NeverTrump Kasich leads us to nowhere.

  1173. dblaikie says:

    Michigan Guy with the strength of the “Cow Counties” the so-called wall needs to be over 35000 at least. In addition, the wall aside, with Absentees the early vote in Nevada is very close. In 2016, after week 1, the Dems had a 29000 vote lead in Clark and the same with all Counties. Back then after week 1 the Dems. had a 3000 vote lead in Washoe. In fact I don’t understand why Ralston is driveling about the Washoe. And the “Cow Counties” were collectively plus 3000 for the GOP.

    What does week one show when you factor this in: Heller is in great shape.

  1174. EML says:

    Biggest day yet in Florida for Republicans. Grew the lead in both absentee and in person ballots. Overall lead grew from 61,449 to 72,969.

  1175. Redmen4ever says:

    2nd of 3

    EV versus polls: Two years ago, I saw the difference between the “high quality” live caller polls and the robo-caller and internet-based polls (which difference I call the margin of bias, MOB) practically disappear during the last week of the campaign. We’re not yet in the last week of this year’s campaign. Who knows whether the media and university polls will squeeze out the MOB in the remaining days of this election cycle. The desire to live in a reality of their choosing is strong in those people.

  1176. MichiganGuy says:

    dblaikie, I agree 100%

  1177. Redmen4ever says:

    3rd of 3

    If we add to out majority in the Senate and not lose badly in the House (as now looks will be the case), a certain President of the United States will declare victory and will be unstoppable in the party’s nomination process.

  1178. Skippy says:

    Updated as of Saturday morning:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Updated as of Friday morning.

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.00%
    Democrats 38.92%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +64,733

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.73%
    Democrats 39.58%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +72,969

    Either the polls are way off or the Democrats are clearing up among non affiliated/INDY voters.

    Because as of today the Republican voters are more enthusiastic about voting in the state of Florida than Democrats regardless of what historic comparison you want to make.

    No blue wave in Florida. Hell no.

  1179. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #1195- EML
    Yes and with respect to the in-person early voting, GOP-friendly Counties of Bay,Clay,Brevard and Martin have yet to start their programs. Also, Volusia.

    #1194-db
    Let’s not forget that in Nevada, Independents usuaaly break nicely toward the GOP.

  1180. MichiganGuy says:

    Third and final U.S. Senate debate in Ohio between Sherrod Brown and Jim Renacci if anyone wants to watch. Don’t think it changed anything.
    .
    https://www.10tv.com/article/final-debate-between-brown-renacci-shows-both-candidates-are-fighters

  1181. Tina says:

    Any updates on Nv from Ralston Reid?

  1182. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag calls the sicko nutcase a “Trump loving Republican”.

    Anybody remember what he called the Obama loving Democrat that actually tried to kill people at the baseball field?

  1183. Tina says:

    Bill Mitchell
    @mitchellvii
    46m
    Democrat Andrew Gillum Billed FBI Undercover Agent $4,386 For Fundraiser, Never Disclosed In Finance Reports thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/democr… via @gatewaypundit

    Yikes.

  1184. EML says:

    1200 – yes there are 19 counties in Florida that will open early voting today. All of them were won by Trump. Osceola, the last Hillary county to start early voting, opened yesterday, along with 4 Trump counties. With the trends and adding the new counties, I’d expect today to be another big day.

  1185. jason says:

    Predictit this morning

    Bolsonaro President of Brazil 97 (election tomorrow)
    GOP control of House 38%
    Donnelly 44%
    Heller 54%
    Nelson 59%
    Menendez 78%
    Manchin 78%
    Stabenow 83%
    Georgia GOP Gov 68%
    Sherrod Brown 90%
    Kobach 59&
    Duncan Hunter 74%
    David Brat 57%
    Nevada Gov GOP 60%
    Chris Collins 76%
    Comstock 17%
    Walker 44%
    Heitkamp 14%
    McCaskill 38%
    Trump to switch parties before 2020 6%

  1186. jason says:

    Forgot these three

    Tester 66%
    Blackburn 81%
    McSally 63%

  1187. jason says:

    One caveat on our enthusiasm with the EV an absentee vote results is the uncertainty of how the unaffiliated are voting. And that will vary by ou have to state.

    But in Ohio the unaffiliated seem to be only 11%.

  1188. jason says:

    I see Corey is out early with the “both sides” canard again.

    This is typical of the MSM narrative that “domestic terrorism” is on a par with Islamic terrorism.

  1189. jason says:

    “WASHINGTON – Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley today submitted a second referral to the Justice Department and FBI following a news report yesterday that cast doubt on the veracity of allegations in a second sworn statement provided by Michael Avenatti to the committee.

    Avenatti submitted an anonymous declaration on October 2, 2018, purporting to corroborate allegations raised by Julie Swetnick. However, according to yesterday’s news report, the declarant denied making the key allegations, saying that Avenatti “twisted [her] words.”

  1190. Tgca says:

    1
    2
    1
    2

  1191. jason says:

    Avenatti’s response: it’s obvious Grassley did not go to law school.

  1192. Tgca says:

    Damn Jadon screws everything up. A-hole!

  1193. SoHope says:

    Sunday is Souls to the Polls – organized early voting with black churches in FL. If we dont see much movement there way in the numbers after Sunday i will feel better

  1194. Scooby77 says:

    Gents, I’m in touch with a numbers cruncher in Ohio. Much like Predictit states, Renacci is unfortunately toast.

    Not happy, as the last time I emailed him I was hoping he would give me some inside scoop that the polls were off. No luck.

  1195. jason says:

    Hey Tgca, I tested your theory this morning.

    I asked my wife are you trying to kill me with high fat food so you can collect on the insurance.

    She said “who gave you that idea”

    I said “some gay dude in Philly”

    She said “you can’t believe everything you read on the Internet. Have another leftover pork chop, they are delicious, and there is more bacon in the pan”.

  1196. michael corleone says:

    Nevada updated as more rurals report. They must take Nevada Day seriously in cow country because voting really fell off. D statewide lead will be closer to 4800 when everything is in. Rs must perform better in Washoe.

  1197. Phil says:

    What about Beto?

  1198. jason says:

    Given his history, Tark probably still loses the House race,”

    Not to worry wes, deadenders will still support him so he can lose next time too.

  1199. jason says:

    On Predictit?

    Cruz 81%

  1200. jason says:

    “Tgca says:
    October 27, 2018 at 9:04 am

    Damn Jadon screws everything up. A-hole!”

    And jason takes early lead on points.

    It’s almost unfair, really.

  1201. Tgca says:

    Jadon

    I know what I know.

    As they say, a way to a man’s heart is through his stomach. In this case it will be a heart attack.

  1202. jason says:

    Sayoc is not on the ballot.”

    So Corey is more honest than Amoral Scumbag, who is giddy about Rs losing votes because of the nutcase.

    I give credit when its due.

  1203. jason says:

    In this case it will be a heart attack.”

    This is probably true. My cholesterol is like 320 or was before I stopped measuring.

    But to me it just means enjoying life while I can, not watering it down with squirrel food.

    It means more bacon, not less.

  1204. Hugh says:

    Being a slow learner help me understand. In 2016 the dems led the first week early voting by 27000 and in 2018 by 4500. And this is good news for who??

  1205. jason says:

    The assumption is that the Dems need a certain head start to compensate for losing the election day vote.

  1206. Chicon says:

    Not to worry, Jason, cholesterol don’t mean diddly.

  1207. Skippy says:

    Comparing Florida’s numbers 11 days from Election Day (includes Election Day)

    2018 Florida
    VBM + EV = Rep +72,969
    VBM = Rep +64,733
    EV = Rep +8,236

    2016 Florida
    VBM + EV = Rep +22,736
    VBM = Rep +61,249
    EV = Dem +38,513

    We see a +50,000 vote advantage for Republicans in 2018 vs in 2016 at the same point in voting cycle. The vote tally will change dramatically in the next 10 days when we will witness a Democratic vote surge. But keep in mind. The universe of votes will be smaller in 2018 as it was in 2016. So this +50,000 is a bit larger than at first blush. It’s difficult to imagine the Democrats matching their VBM + EV advantage of 2 years ago going into Election Day this cycle. No blue wave in Florida.

  1208. jaichind says:

    @1230 Skippy
    It all sounds good in FL VBM+EV. But my concern is that these numbers seem a bit worse for us than in 2014. And in 2014 Scott only won by 1%. You have to me marking the argument that Crist 2014 is relatively stronger than Nelson 2018 and Gillum 2018. Problem here is Nelson is the incumbent and Gillum is not running agonist Scott. That should make up for the fact that Crist 2014 had some cross-party appeal and good name recognition. These FL number still seem to imply a 50/50 race when compared to 2014 results.

  1209. Wes says:

    Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery:

    Michigan Guy steals my format and tweaks it for his own predictions.

  1210. jason says:

    Michigan Guy steals my format and tweaks it for his own predictions.”

    He can’t take responsibility for his own format, so he uses yours.

  1211. Tgca says:

    I think I’m gonna help Jadon get hs cholesterol under 200 and drop a few pounds and increase his energy. Here is his suggested breakfast menu. I’ll recommend a lunch around 1PM.

    Breakfast:
    1/2 boiled organic red potato with pepper (no salt) or a few drops of Tabasco sauce
    1 hard boiled free range egg with a 1/2 tsp honey mustard
    1/2 slice organic rye toast with 1/2 tsp organic blueberry preserves
    6 oz glass of fresh squeezed organic red grapefruit juice
    8 oz glass of organic vanilla almond milk sweetened with 1tsp organic maple syrup (grade B)
    1 20 oz glass of organic iced green tea sweetened with 5 drops of organic liquid stevia

    1 12 oz glass of bottled water every 2 hours sweetened with 5 drops of stevia is optional
    6 to 8 organic raw almonds every 2 hours as a snack are optional as well.

  1212. jason says:

    Not to worry, Jason, cholesterol don’t mean diddly.”

    Not worried. Lots of studies out showing the cholesterol scare is bogus, and that butter, eggs and fat are a lot better for you than sugar and flour.

  1213. Wes says:

    So, Jason, what your current gubernatorial and Senate predictions?

    I will make my final predictions Thursday.

  1214. JeffP says:

    NO BLUE WAVE…in fact it could be a RED WAVE…I think the Dems really are going to shocked when they find out their resist and mob them campaign is not enthusiastically supported by registered DEMS. GOP gains 5-7 in Senate and house is kept by more seats than anyone would have thought. Media heads will explode.

  1215. jason says:

    /2 boiled organic red potato with pepper (no salt) or a few drops of Tabasco sauce

    Would rather croak, although I like Tabasco

    1 hard boiled free range egg with a 1/2 tsp honey mustard”

    I already eat at least 3 eggs a day, probably more

    1/2 slice organic rye toast with 1/2 tsp organic blueberry preserves

    I am cutting down on bread

    6 oz glass of fresh squeezed organic red grapefruit juice

    Grapefruit juice is good, but you can’t take it with statins. Of course, most of the time I forget the statin.

    8 oz glass of organic vanilla almond milk sweetened with 1tsp organic maple syrup (grade B)

    Would rather croak and anyway don’t like sweet drinks

    1 20 oz glass of organic iced green tea sweetened with 5 drops of organic liquid stevia

    I drink green tea at chinese restaurants without a liquor license

    12 oz glass of bottled water every 2 hours sweetened with 5 drops of stevia is optional

    I don’t drink water

    6 to 8 organic raw almonds every 2 hours as a snack are optional as well.

    Ok

  1216. Wes says:

    For the record, though I don’t detail individual House races because I don’t want to type a mile-long post, I have the House at D+18 for a 222-213 R-D split.

  1217. MichiganGuy says:

    “Michigan Guy steals my format and tweaks it for his own predictions.”
    ——————————————————————————————————————
    Zzzzzzzzz Yep, Wes you were the 1st person to every come up with that format. Next Wes will take credit for capitalizing the first letter in the beginning of a sentence. LOL

  1218. jason says:

    wes, too lazy to make predictions, so I will just agree/disagree with yours.

  1219. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    23m
    FL. (Wow): GOP absentee/early up 11,000 in one day Absentee Ballot: Rs lead by 64,733 In-Person Early Voting: Rs lead by 8,236 Combined Early voting: Rs lead by 72,969 (Trump won FL in 2016 by 113,000 votes); 40% of red Panhandle counties haven’t begun voting seriously yet

  1220. jason says:

    As I predicted, MG did not take responsibility for stealing wes’ format.

  1221. Tgca says:

    People are in denial f they think cholesterol above 250 ain’t no big deal, especially higher LDL, the bad cholesterol.

    Butter, cream, and cheese are fine for most folks in moderation as long as their LDL and weight is in check, and they are moderately active.

  1222. jaichind says:

    Updated CA EV info

    http://wheresthepartydoc.blogspot.com/2018/10/

    http://wheresthepartydoc.blogspot.com/2018/10/some-good-news-for-each-side.html

    Still seems to imply Dems pick up 1 or at most 2 seats vs the 6 they are hoping for.

  1223. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    21m
    Replying to @LarrySchweikart
    2) Just eyeballin’ it appears that some of the red counties have started sending in absentees and/or walking in; also looks like the “bomber” has actually INCREASED FL GOP energy.
    View conversation ·

  1224. jason says:

    “Panhandle counties haven’t begun voting seriously yet”

    Hey Panhandle, get serious, this is no joke

  1225. Wes says:

    1) Elmer, show me another poster who employed the format I adopted for Senate and gubernatorial predictions. I first typed predictions in that format in 2014.

    2) You clearly just copied and pasted what I had already typed and rearranged the ones you disagreed with me on.

  1226. Tina says:

    So, we went from plus 53000 to plus 73000 in Florida, 2 days after Muh Trump Bomba?

  1227. jason says:

    People are in denial f they think cholesterol above 250 ain’t no big deal, especially higher LDL, the bad cholesterol.”

    People are in denial if they think vegetarianism is healthy.

  1228. Wobbles says:

    So, we went from plus 53000 to plus 73000 in Florida, 2 days after Muh Trump Bomba?”

    This is sad, everyone knows Trump is responsible.

    Anything new with Mueller?

  1229. Wes says:

    Two caveats about the early vote:

    1) While Republicans are turning out in high numbers, we don’t know how people are voting—though it is safe to say most Republicans will vote Republican.

    2) Indies are an X factor as they can tip the election to the Dems If motivated sufficiently against Trump.

    Even with those caveats, I’d rather be the GOP than the Dems right now.

  1230. MichiganGuy says:

    #1248 Jay a.k.a Wes. Yes, I copied and pasted and corrected your errors. So what? Do you really expect everyone to do their predictions in a different format? LOL

  1231. Bitterlaw says:

    My doctor told me that my cholesterol levels and blood pressure are very good. If it wasn’t for diabetes, I would’ve healthy.

  1232. jason says:

    We have our own scandal brewing here.

    Formatgate.

  1233. Bitterlaw says:

    The bomber supported Trump. That is a fact.

    Trump is not responsible for lunatics who choose to support him.

  1234. Tina says:

    Wobbles, Fuhrer Mulehead has set his site on Roger Stone.
    I do not even remember Stone being a part of the campaign.

    Mulehead is also rumored to have been told by Redactstein to end the witch hunt.

  1235. jason says:

    “wes, I copied and pasted and corrected your errors. So what?”

    Translation: he/she admits stealing your format. The “so what” is irrelevant.

  1236. Mr.Vito says:

    The dropoff on Nevada Day in the rurals is normal.

    The voting in Nevada in week 1 is comparable in size to 2012 when Heller won.

    It is about 87% of the vote with some red counties outstanding.

    In week 1 of 2012, Dems won by about 27000.
    If we scaled this down to this year, the lead would be about 23000.

    But this year the lead stands at 4681 at the moment.

  1237. Bitterlaw says:

    Formatgate is a far more serious matter than Sweatergate.

    My favorite font is Times New Roman. GFY.

  1238. Mr.Vito says:

    This guy is still keeping track of the early vote in one place, y’all.

    http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

  1239. Skippy says:

    #1231

    Charlie Christ cleaned up on the INDY Vote in 2014. If Nelson is repeating the same performance with INDY’s in 2018 then Scott is toast. But I don’t see it. Republican enthusiasm is very high in Florida for 2018 thus far and I don’t think the Florida polls are weighted correctly.

  1240. jason says:

    No, but supposedly Stone “knew” the Russians had hacked the DNC. He denies it, but even if he did know it wouldn’t have stopped the Russians from hacking and Wikileaks from divulging it.

    The Dems were ok with Chelsea Manning stealing classified material and divulging them through Wikileaks, Podesta’s emails not so much.

  1241. jason says:

    Is that Harley Davidson?

  1242. Tina says:

    Regarding the Bomba – questions I have for Justice, Wrong Wray, and the investigation:

    Did Bomba live with momma in basement, or live in the van.

    The van would not be street legal in Ca. How was it street legal in Florida. Windows were coveried, impairing his ability to drive it.

    If he was homeless and lived in the van, was the van in working order?

    If he was homeless, how did he afford the $ for the pictures that covered the van?

    Did he drive to Ny?

    Did he have help?

    Can Weong Wray take a speech class? Who recommended the Fib head that cannot speak?

    All we know from Wrong Wray is that the bombs could have exploded. However, based on the charges, they were not functional. Otherwise, he would be looking at life, not 48 years in jail.

  1243. MichiganGuy says:

    sb Senate, I know how uptight you a-holes are about format and grammar. LOL

  1244. Chicon says:

    He may not want the company, but I’m with Jason on the cholesterol/vegetarian issue.

    Now, if he’d just come around on the trade issue……

  1245. jason says:

    Formatgate is a far more serious matter than Sweatergate.”

    There was an ethics complaint to the HHR Ethics Board about you possibly lying about the number of sweaters you owned. Just because the Ethics Board’s deliberations are held in secret doesn’t mean the scandal has gone away. Of course, your elevated status as losing congressional candidate, 2 term HHR Governor, A-hole founding father, etc. will be taken into account.

  1246. jason says:

    “sb Senate, I know how uptight you a-holes are about format and grammar.”

    MG won’t take responsibility for the error.

    The fault lies with those that are “uptight”.

    Sad.

  1247. Tgca says:

    I disagree! I think sweatergate and flowergate are rather serious. Complete lies and denials here.

  1248. jason says:

    Now, if he’d just come around on the trade issue……”

    Sorry.

    I have opposed the AFL-CIO isolationist and protectionist agenda for decades, not changing now just because Trump signed on to it.

  1249. jason says:

    Flowergate?

  1250. Mr.Vito says:

    Another point about Nevada. Day1 is always big, and Day2 is only Washoe/Clark.

    The lead Ds had on Day2 and on Day7 will essentially be unchanged.

  1251. Tgca says:

    I don’t ever recall saying being a vegetarian in and by itself implies good health. Healthy living includes other things beyond food.

    I have always enjoyed certain veggies. My choice to be a vegetarian was not because of healthy eating habits since I already had those habits. I had 2 reasons for my switch to vegetarian.

  1252. jason says:

    He may not want the company, ….”

    Wrong. I don’t look a gift agreement in the mouth.

  1253. Tina says:

    Did somebody mention fornagate?

    – Bj Clinton, spouse of the “real” President

  1254. Chicon says:

    Just messing around on the trade stuff – 100% agreement is not required.

  1255. mnw says:

    1262 MG

    Is Harley a member of the famous motorcycle family?

  1256. Tgca says:

    Yes. Like the MSM, some at HHR have tried to bury this controversy. Bitter enjoys flower shows but frequently denies and lies about it, even though by his own admission, he has attended them.

    We know he denies being a sweater guy.

    He likes cats over dogs.

    …and he attends flower shows.

    I see a disturbing pattern here.

  1257. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, you’re a funny guy. Ok, the grammar police caught me it’s suppose to be Hawley

  1258. Hugh says:

    1263. Exactly true. Crist the turncoat got dem votes and a bunch of Indy’s

  1259. Mr.Vito says:

    Misspelling Hawley is not “grammar”.

  1260. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The Florida early vote just updated by one County–Santa Rosa– and boosted the GOP lead by about 1,400 votes to 74,332.

  1261. Mr.Vito says:

    “Crist the turncoat got dem votes and a bunch of Indy’s”

    He also got disgruntled Republicans.

  1262. MichiganGuy says:

    Great now Vito is going to lecture me. I love this place. LOL

  1263. Bitterlaw says:

    I said I trust cats over dogs. I attended 1 flower show. Only one

  1264. Phil says:

    Talk to me about the Florida early vote after tomorrow’s Souls to the Polls. That’s when we will get a real fix on things.

  1265. Chicon says:

    Disgruntled Republicans? You mean deadenders?

  1266. Chicon says:

    MichiganGuy – your contributions are appreciated. And who gives a hoot about format?

  1267. Tina says:

    The Repubblicans that felt Crist was entitled to the senate seat.

    Much like Flub was enttitlled to the Presidemcy.

  1268. Hugh says:

    Looking at the nyt fl senate race they significantly over polled the children and under polled the over 65 crowd.

  1269. Redmen4ever says:

    Dodgers won Game 3 in extra innings

    The last time the Dodgers played in the World Series during a midterm election was 1978. They lost Game 3 and the Republicans went on to win 15 seats. Since they lost Game 3 this year, the Republicans will loss 15 seats.

    There you have it, the Republican maintain control of the House albeit with a reduced majority.

  1270. ssq says:

    The Repubblicans that felt Crist was entitled to the senate seat.”

    Jesus Crist should have any seat he wants.

  1271. jason says:

    Note MG was happy to act like an ass when I jokingly remarked I would blame him if my real long shot pick (James) didn’t come in, accusing me of “not taking responsibility for my posts”.

    When the shoe is on the other foot, he/she has a hissy fit.

  1272. MichiganGuy says:

    Thx Chicon

  1273. jason says:

    I think MG might not be a guy….just a hunch. Not that there is anything wrong in not being a guy.

  1274. scooterboy says:

    Active shooter at Pittsburgh synagogoe. Multiple fatalities.

    Did all these crazies decide to come out at the same time?

  1275. RB says:

    Could use a good day in NV today…Dems clearly won yesterday and tomorrow the Rurals do not vote…if i recall(and i may be wrong) the Reoublicans tend to do better in week 2 than week 1

  1276. jason says:

    ” – 100% agreement is not required.”

    What??

    I guess you would never qualify for deadender then.

    They require 100% litmus tested true conservative Republicans.

    Barring that, bring on the liberal Dems.

  1277. jason says:

    Could use a good day in NV today”

    About 100k people in the casinos just said the same thing.

  1278. mnw says:

    Like Kelly in KS.

  1279. Wobbles says:

    Let me be the first to blame Trump.

  1280. D. Ed Ender says:

    Disgruntled Republicans? You mean deadenders?

    I’m not disgruntled.

  1281. Chicon says:

    1296 – maybe it’s hard to tell when you’re joking?

  1282. scooterboy says:

    In other news…..it’s been 25 years since I purchased a new shotgun. Don’t usually purchase firearms from Wal-mart, but they had deal on a Mossberg 20 gauge combo package that I just couldn’t pass up.

    Deer have been kicking my ass lately…
    I’m 0-2 the last 2 years.

  1283. MichiganGuy says:

    Exactly, Chicon when someone insults you all the time and then one time he says “I was just joking” Really? How am I suppose to take anything he says seriously. That is why I’m just ignoring all his posts.

  1284. mnw says:

    The latest batch of NYT/Siena “live” polls is complete, & pretty bad for GOP, as usual. I’ll let DW report in detail, but here are some hilites:

    Roskam (R-inc) -2 in IL-06. (tied last time)

    DEMs kicking’ butt in FL SEN & GOV– GOP down 4-6 points in both races. If true, particularly alarming is that Gillum is +2 among the 29% of “already voted” polled.

    They’ve got the R-inc (Blum?) down -2 points in that IA district– IA-03, I think?

  1285. scooterboy says:

    1309. What the heck is going on in Florida? That sucks.

  1286. jason says:

    ‘when someone insults you all the time ”

    Awwww, victim much?

    What is good for the goose is not good for the gander, huh?

  1287. Hugh says:

    1310. The nyt crosstabs are a joke. Way too many under 29 and way too few polled over 65

  1288. jason says:

    1296 – maybe it’s hard to tell when you’re joking?”

    Never.

    Especially in this case. I said I would pick a real long shot to win a surprise race. I named James. Note I already stated this is a real long shot.

    Then since MG is from Michigan I said if he doesn’t win I can always blame MG.

    Do you think that really merits a post that says I don’t take responsibility for my own posts?

  1289. Redmen4ever says:

    first part of 2018 cycle: Republican redefine winning as losing no more than 23 seats in the House

    second part of 2018 cycle: Democrats redefine winning as losing no than than 3 seats in the Senate

  1290. mnw says:

    Additions/corrections to 1309 above:

    NYT/Siena has Love (R-inc) tied in UT. (I’m sick to death of her being the GOP’s chronic “sick buffalo,”– the one the wolves always go for first) Her DEM opponent is a “blue dog DEM”! Oh, of COURSE he is!

    It’s Young (R-inc) who’s down -2 in IA (not Blum).

    The FL SEN & GOV polls are NOT completed. My error.

  1291. jason says:

    mnw says:
    October 27, 2018 at 11:22 am

    Like Kelly in KS.”

    Worried?

    Maybe next time don’t nominate a crappy candidate that struggles to win in ruby red KS and you can relax.

    Novel idea, huh?

  1292. mnw says:

    It may be noteworthy that none of The Wise Men even bothered to comment on the new Remington poll showing Hawley +5 in MO SEN.

    None.

  1293. mnw says:

    Maybe next time deadeners like YOU won’t take your ball & go home whenever your guy loses a GOP primary.

    Novel idea?

  1294. Redmen4ever says:

    1296 – I call off-side for using three or more negatives in a sentence

    (1) “happy to act like an ass,” (2) “jokingly remarked,” (3) “blame him if,” (4) “real long shot,” (5) “didn’t come in”

  1295. jason says:

    Scooter, try something more high powered and with longer range than a shotgun.

    Speaking of deer, a friend shot a deer and gave me a about 20 lbs of hamburger, some jerky and about 10 lbs of venison sausage.

    I am salivating like Pavlov’s dogs here.

  1296. jason says:

    1319.

    Good call.

    Real long shot is a good oxymoron.

  1297. Robbie says:

    Will Rush Limbaugh claim the shooting in Pittsburgh was a false flag operation meant to hurt Republicans as he suggested MAGAbomber was on Wednesday?

  1298. jason says:

    We have lots of bears around here now, they want to fatten up before heading for the hills to hibernate.
    No bird feeder is safe.

  1299. scooterboy says:

    “The FL SEN & GOV polls are NOT completed. My error.

    GFY mnw….you got me all worked up for nothing.

    I really don’t mean GFY, but Jason said I had to use it to prove I’m still A-hole worthy.

  1300. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is like a maggot on road kill.

    Disappointed that the nutcase in FL hasn’t damaged Trump enough to his liking, he is hoping against hope that maybe the Pittsburgh shooting will.

    It’s hard to get any lower as a despicable human being, but Amoral Scumbag never ceases to amaze me.

  1301. Hugh says:

    Compared to early voting the nyt poll has 29 and under polled at a % twice the rate of actual and 65 and older at half the rate of actual voting. Enough said the poll is junk.

  1302. scooterboy says:

    1320. Not allowed to use rifles in Illinois. Only shotgun seasons for deer. There is a black powder season, but I don’t participate in that.

  1303. Tina says:

    Notice how the trolls use the word Magabomber.

  1304. mnw says:

    SB 1324

    No problem. Understood.

  1305. Albert Hodges says:

    Somewhere along the way over the last 2 weeks, I read that the major polls have announced they are NOT able to poll folks in the Panhandle due to Hurricane Michael which implies, if true, that their numbers are based on extrapolating GOP voters from other areas of the state to get their GOP voter preferences. That would skew results as much as asking some damn Yankee GOPers their opinion and trying to guess an Alabaman GOPer’s preferences from the Yankees just because they both are Republican.

  1306. Tina says:

    15m
    Replying to @robbystarbuck
    Another post from Pittsburgh Synagogue shooter Robert Bowers. His profile clearly illustrates that he’s a Nazi, admired Hitler, hates Trump, believes Trump is controlled by Jews, he did not vote for Trump. That’s all I was able to archive before his profile was wiped. Sickening. pic.twitter.com/DPQfGuWDzY
    View conversation ·

  1307. Tina says:

    Robby Starbuck
    @robbystarbuck
    4m
    Replying to @robbystarbuck
    Being very clear for media picking this up, this man Robert Bowers was named on police scanner, found his profile, last post was this and his social media account was wiped while I was archiving it. His account was anti-Semitic conspiracies and anti-Trump posts/conspiracies. pic.twitter.com/uRNfWAEWLW
    View conversation ·

    Who do we blame, Jebots?

  1308. mnw says:

    Albert 1330

    Basically…. yeah. The Panhandle hasn’t showed up as much in early voting as other areas. Expected to catch up.

  1309. mnw says:

    The Wise Men just posted their new House projection:

    +17D to +44D.

    LOTS of movement in DEM direction in individual races.

  1310. Skippy says:

    +17D to +44D is not a projection.

    It’s a large range which anyone of us would adhere to…it’s obvious.

  1311. Chicon says:

    1313 – just my take, but I didn’t realize it was a joke either….

    A-holes can treat each other like dirt and then forget about it. Not everyone is an A-hole. FWIW.

  1312. Chicon says:

    1336 – Lol, that sounds the wide range Robbie has posted so he can tell us he was right the day after the election.

  1313. Skippy says:

    Updated Saturday afternoon:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 43.01%
    Democrats 38.91%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +64,904

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.76%
    Democrats 39.55%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +74,334

    Republicans increase their margins once again as they embrace for Democratic surge.

  1314. mnw says:

    CNN: “Kamala Harris Receives A Hero’s Welcome From Women in IA”

    Per CNN, women “with tears in their eyes” are rushing up to her to thank her, for her fine job at the Kavanaugh hearings, on behalf of sex abuse victims everywhere..

  1315. scooterboy says:

    I know it’s impossible to know, but what is your GUT feeling on which way the Indepenents are leaning this election.

  1316. michael corleone says:

    #1341 – My view is in the battleground districts that have a R PVI they will break to the GOP and in the Dem districts to the Dems. In the Senate, because of the map, they will overwhelmingly break our way, except I am concerned about indies in NV and FL. If this pattern holds, I think we hold House.

  1317. Hugh says:

    EV just gets better in MT. Go Rosendale

  1318. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The early vote in Arizona continues its upward GOP trend. Yesterday, the Republican lead was 87,173; today 93,927.

    #1343- Hugh Good news. Do you have a link?

  1319. dblaikie says:

    These early votes are helpful in many ways but one especially — voter enthusiasm. For months we have heard that the Democrats could hardly wait to go vote — were passionate about getting to the voting booth. But in most states the GOP is outdoing the Dems. Conclusion perhaps the big story missed the last weeks is Republican passion. They are the one who can’t wait to get to the polls.

    Because of that I am more confident of my prediction up to now: GOP gain of 5 in Senate, Democratic gain of 5 in the House.

  1320. Mr.Vito says:

    It is important to note that is modeled data. We don’t have any way of verifying their information, so you would have to trust their methods.

  1321. dblaikie says:

    Yes that means that there will be a number of upsets in the House on Election Night. Yes it means that 538 will have egg on its face again and Larry Sabato will shake his head saying something like — “How stupid I was to miss this GOP enthusiasm wave.”

  1322. Mr.Vito says:

    I see NC early vote is D+12. How does that stack up?

  1323. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like in 2014, it was D+15.5 and Black vote is down 5% from then.

  1324. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like it was D+10 in 2016, though, with Black vote down 2% from that year.

  1325. dblaikie says:

    My upsets for Ca. and Nev.: Ca 10, 24, 25, Nev. 3 and 4.

  1326. jason says:

    The shooter thinks Trump is a puppet to Jewish interests.

    Amoral Scumbag hardest hit.

  1327. jason says:

    1313 – just my take, but I didn’t realize it was a joke either…. ”

    I guess you are not very bright.

    No need to advertise it.

  1328. jason says:

    I note that after initially posting about the shooting, Amoral Scumbag quickly lost interest when he realized it was not a “Trump Republican”.

  1329. jason says:

    . Not allowed to use rifles in Illinois.”

    Ah yes, liberals rule there.

  1330. jason says:

    That would skew results as much as asking some damn Yankee GOPers”

    Corey and Amoral Scumbag are still stuck in 2016. But I guess its an improvement over Albert, still stuck in 1865.

  1331. Scooterboy says:

    Republicans lead in Florida grows to 74,309. Picked up another 1300.

  1332. Phil says:

    This is the big weekend for Democrats in Florida where they try and run it up. Bus blacks to the polls tomorrow.

  1333. mnw says:

    McSally is campaigning with Joni Ernst & VP Pence this weekend.

  1334. phoenixrisen says:

    My current Senate projection:

    GOP + 4 including leaners.

    GOP holds all seats for re-election.

    ND is safe GOP.

    AZ, MO, IN, and FL lean GOP.

    MT and MI toss-up

    OH, MN (Smith), WI, and NJ lean Democrat.

    55 seats with GOP leaners, 61 seats top side if GOP sweeps all leaning races including races that are leaning Democrat.

    I’m ranking MI toss-up because James’ momentum reminds me a lot of what I saw happen to Charlie Crist when Marco Rubio primaried him in 2010. Momentum is very similar. A little over a week to Election Day.

  1335. Chicon says:

    1354 – yep, you’re onto me.

  1336. Skippy says:

    Nevada Percentage of turnout so far by age range:

    18-29: 5%
    30-39: 7%
    40-49: 11%
    50-59: 17%
    60-69: 26%
    70-79: 24%
    80-89: 8%
    90-99: 1%
    Over 100: <1%

  1337. Bitterlaw says:

    The carnage continues. I am not Jewish so I not able to relate to this slaughter the way that Jews do. However, my wife is Jewish. My children do not practice Judaism but they are Jewish according to Jewish law. I have always respected and supported Jews and Israel. If a scumbag like this came after Jews in my town, I will go down fighting to protect them.

    The Pennsylvania Governor, Tom Wolf, has a moratorium on the death penalty. I hope he lifts it for this case.

  1338. Redmen4ever says:

    Racquel Dickson, 36, a full-time student at Pima Community College in Tucson, will vote for Sinema …

    https://www.courthousenews.com/arizona-senate-race-still-a-toss-up/

    duh?

  1339. Redmen4ever says:

    Snowflakes couldn’t take losing in 2016; won’t ever vote again

    The study in the Journal of American College Health found among nearly 800 [Arizona State University] students a quarter came away with “event-related clinical distress,” as symptom psychologists argue can trigger post-traumatic stress disorder later in life.

    https://kjzz.org/content/717367/study-millennials-stressed-out-2016-election-may-never-vote

  1340. Chicon says:

    Bitter, it’s being investigated by the FBI as a hate crime. Federal death penalty?

  1341. dblaikie says:

    Speaking as Christian Pastor I believe that Antisemitism has been the greatest wrong in Western Culture in the last 2000 years. From the terrible history of Czarist Russia, to the Inquisition in Spain, to the Holocaust in Germany, and to the words Lewis Farrakhan and this terrible act today, Western Christian Culture has done and committed terrible wrongs against the Jewish people and it has to stop!!!

  1342. Bitterlaw says:

    https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/resources/hate-crimes-laws-and-penalties.htm

    Possibly, Chicon, but I would need to do more research. I hope sessions has his top lawyers on trying to get that result. The sticking point here is whether these murders would trigger federal murder charges. I hope so.

  1343. DW says:

    I have been warning now for a while about Siena and how they may end up being not very accurate. Recall that in every single competitive house race they polled in 2014 and 2016 their poll favored the Dem compared to the actual results.

  1344. DW says:

    Just 171 into the Siena poll of PA_01, but Fitzpatrick rebounding nicely from the first poll, +6, 49/43.

  1345. DW says:

    and with 370 responses Knight (R) in CA_25 up one point. That seat is below the magic line. Also slim leads in KS_02 and NC_09–two more below the line.

  1346. CG says:

    Needless to say, it is very sad to hear about today’s terrorist attack, which is the now deadliest assault upon Jews in American history.

    It always feels especially tragic when people are targeted and killed for how they worship or as they worship. It has happened in America to people of several other faiths recently. Every time I have been in a synagogue in recent years, I never can help but wonder what would happen if someone would come in and start shooting and that there are people who fantasize about doing exactly that.

    The Jewish people in America and around the world will of course continue to persevere as they have throughout history. Nothing has been able to exterminate them yet and hopefully nothing ever will.

    The name of the synagogue in Pittsburgh reminds me of a verse from favorite song I used to hear in synagogue as a child-

    “It is a tree of life to them who hold fast to it
    and all of its supporters are happy… Shalom Shalom.”

  1347. mnw says:

    Be sure to patronize corr-eee’s trollblog!

    That way, you can encourage him to spread even MORE of his unique insights here! And clutter up even MORE of the threads.

  1348. DW says:

    Knight up 4 now in Siena’s poll of CA_25. This is great news if it holds and if the poll is accurate.

  1349. mnw says:

    Schweikart’s promised article on the FL SEN & GOV races is now up at Big League Politics blog. Link at Schweikart, too.

  1350. lisab says:

    since cg and robbie are not trolling every other post

    i am going to guess that

    returns in nv and fl are going pretty well?

    amirite?

  1351. mnw says:

    lisab 1379

    U r correct, but I’m not sure there’s a correlation.

    The only correlation I’ve ever noticed is that they hibernated after Trump won, when they got their stupid trollpredictions adz kicked.

  1352. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey will ignore my post but here goes.

    I am sorry that there are evil people in this world who target you and other Jews. I am sorry that this scum was allowed to surrender instead of being killed. I stand beside your people in their grief and beside them in their struggle to survive.

  1353. mnw says:

    Mile long line in Murphysboro, IL tonite.

    It sure isn’t because of the lovely autumn weather.

  1354. lisab says:

    #1381 are you going to write granny warren and tell her you stand with her cherokee people on the trail of tears too?

    perhaps stand with obama and all the black slaves there used to be?

    i suppose you stand with puppies too

  1355. Bitterlaw says:

    lisab – my wife is Jewish. GFY, bitch.

  1356. Mr.Vito says:

    Basically all the vote is in from NV for week1 (two very tiny counties still didn’t report)

    The lead is 4400 for the Democrats.

    The lead after the first weekend surge was 3800, so the Little Red Engine that Could did its job through the Nevada Day holiday.

    Dems lead is 1.4 by percent over the GOP.
    Their reg. advantage is 4.8%

    In 2016, they led by 27000 votes, which was 7.1%

  1357. JulStol says:

    This tweet from Ralston embodies what seems to be going on everywhere https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056302089175949312?s=19

    The Trump Voters are coming out.

  1358. mnw says:

    Jul

    The early voters in NV are sure OLD! See Schweikart for numbers.

  1359. Wes says:

    On Ralston’s Twitter feed, I’m seeing the same “voter cannibalization” argument I saw on here about Obama’s early voting turnout in 2008.

    How’d that work out?

  1360. Wes says:

    Of course I know Bitterlaw hates early voting—except when it elects incompetent, jingoistic drunk drivers President.

  1361. BayernFan says:

    I think that more and more voters, even republicans, are becoming more comfortable voting early. I do it every election.

  1362. JulStol says:

    As I wrote over on RRH, I sent John James $25 tonight. I’m going to give $25 a piece to 3 other candidates this weekend. Suggestions? At the moment I’m leaning towards Rosendale, Blum, and Buehler.

  1363. DW says:

    Over and over RRH posters keep saying that the GOP must lose the house (Dem +23 net gain) because it is impossible for the GOP to ‘run the table’ on all the tossup seats. I have shown that actually the middle of the pile of tossups is roughly where the magic line happens to be. The problem is most do not consider seats like NV_03, NV_04 etc, as tossups. And places like MN_02 and MI_11 have been given up as R to D flips, when in fact they might not be. Furthermore, OH_01 should be a Likely R ranking, but some pretend it’s a tossup. If the GOP ‘ran the table’ and got all the tossups, they would lose a net of just 5 to 10 seats. My prediction of a net of D+20 is based on roughly half the tossups going D and half going R.

  1364. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes always hated George W. Bush. Except when he voted for him twice.

  1365. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Going to a Bolsonaro victory party tomorrow. Nobody cooks beef as well as Brazilians.

  1366. Wes says:

    2008 was the last time Dems won NC. That year, they had an eyepopping 675,000 vote advantage in early voting. Their biggest year since was a 315,000 vote advantage in 2016 (when they still lost everything but the gubernatorial race).

    Anything else suggests a good year for the GOP here.

  1367. Bitterlaw says:

    SD – Tgca would not like Brazilian meat. Your boyfriend is safe.

    Zing!

  1368. Wes says:

    If only I had had the precognitive ability to realize GWB would fail utterly as President and make Obama his inevitable successor, Bitter.

    Then I would have done all in my power to help Gore win.

    Of course unlike a certain PA-based attorney , I actually have principles and don’t sell out everything I believe for an absolute moron.

  1369. Phil says:

    There are only two federal races in NC this year that matter – NC 9 and 13.

  1370. Wes says:

    NC-13 probably stays GOP, Phil, by a reduced margin. NC-9 is still more likely than not to flip but trending the GOP’s way slightly.

  1371. Bitterlaw says:

    Wes has principles? Maybe all the women and the wife he cheated on would disagree. Maybe the pregnant women beaten up by her boyfriend because of screwing around with Wes would be surprised.

    Being lectured by somebody who would want Al Gore as President would be laughable if it wasn’t so sad. I wonder what Wes’ KOS buddies (who write the anti-GWB taliking points for him) think about his less critical views on Trump.

  1372. mnw says:

    Jul 1392

    Didn’t know you were The Wizard of RRH!

  1373. mnw says:

    DW 1393

    Consistent with your post, I note that RRH still has IL-13 as a tossup– even though Bost (R-inc) has led several recent polls by 4 or so pts, & led the most recent NYT/Siena by 9 points!

    If Bost is typical of their “tossups,” then this ain’t over.

  1374. Wes says:

    Unlike MD, I don’t post Daily Kos talking points, Bitter. Unlike you, I don’t sell out the second GWB violates my standards.

  1375. Wes says:

    As far as Trump, he’s trying to succeed as President rather than ineptly working out daddy issues by failing in a war on the other side of the world. I haven’t decided if I’ll vote for him in 2020–I didn’t in 2016–but this far I’ve been reasonably impressed with his performance in the White House. I give him a B+ and have certainly warmed to him in contrast to what I expected when he upset Hillary.

  1376. mnw says:

    1403 sb “IL-12” not IL-13.

  1377. Phil says:

    We can’t afford to lose any districts like NC 9 and keep the House, Wes. Not with us losing 13 seats in California, NJ, and Pa alone.

    The math just doesn’t work.

  1378. mnw says:

    Some of the biggest guns at RRH, to wit: ROGUEMAPPER & MOSHE, are intense DEM partisans. They usually try to hide it, but… sometimes they slip.

    Right now, they’re busy pooh-poohing GOP EV turnout surprises.

  1379. Wes says:

    Fortunately Harris is taking the race seriously, Phil.

  1380. Mr.Vito says:

    Dems won Washoe today by 270.

  1381. Bitterlaw says:

    All of your anti-GWB posts are KOS talking points, Wes.

  1382. mnw says:

    Arizona Republic: “GOP Has Early-Voting Advantage, Dimming Hopes of a Blue Wave”

    The Arizona Republic is a nauseatingly far-left pos. So… it must be pretty bad for THEM to say THAT!

  1383. Wes says:

    Well, then Daily Kos is like a blind squirrel with an acorn since I’ve never once visited the site.

    At least I’m not a hypocrite who adulates an incompetent buffoon despite proclaiming principled opposition to drunk driving, not fighting to win, and excessive overspending by the government.

    I also don’t make up BS to cover someone else’s lies intended to start an unnecessary war that accomplished exactly nothing.

  1384. Tina says:

    @Fuctupmind
    Follow
    Lindsey Graham : “If you’re the radical left who is trying to destroy the country, you can kiss my ass.” Guy is on fire! pic.twitter.com/WoJprYQDff

    Is Lindsay Granite eyeing Ag, or is now hanging around trump too much?

  1385. MichiganGuy says:

    #1410 Vito, you were close. Dems won Washoe by 264
    .
    October 27, 2018

    Democratic – 2,375
    Republican – 2,111
    Nonpartisan – 1,171
    Total – 5,657

  1386. Mr.Vito says:

    No, I was correct. You did not include absentee/mail.

  1387. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito, I stand corrected. Keep up the good work. 🙂

  1388. Mr.Vito says:

    http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/27/nj-gop-candidate-jay-webber-receives-letter-threatening-family

    “What the f–k is wrong with you … s—bag?” the typed letter read. “You BETTER hope that you don’t win! Or else. How many kids do you have… 7? Unlucky 7. This is what we think of you. Time to get out of politics.”

  1389. Bitterlaw says:

    A productive night. Wes does not refute he cheated on every woman he was with, does not refute a pregnant woman was beaten because of him, and does not refute he uses KOS talking points. He admits that in hindsight he would have preferred that hard-core leftist Al Gore be elected and thereby have a President bend over to terrorists and destroy the US economy to stop a problem people did not create and probably can’t change. Such a principled man.

    However, Wes is also an intelligent analyst who is right more often than he is wrong. HHR is lucky to have him.

  1390. MichiganGuy says:

    Testimonials from black Americans who have left the Democratic Party.
    .
    https://blexit.com/
    —————————————————————————————————————
    It will be interesting to see this election what share the Republican Party get of the AA vote. Could the dam be breaking of the dem lock on the AA vote? I know we will not get a majority of AA vote but, we don’t need a majority to win.

  1391. Mr.Vito says:

    Weekend surge vote from Clark didn’t disappoint.

    D+4007 Early vote today.

  1392. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1397. Bitter “SD – Tgca would not like Brazilian meat. Your boyfriend is safe. Zing!”

    We would invite him to the party, and hopefully get him off that crazy vegetarian diet. But Tgca would have a lot of fun, and would probably be a lot of fun to be around. Most of those attending are not gay. It surprises people, but a lot of Brazilians come to this country to serve in the military.

  1393. Marv says:

    #1421 MrVito,

    D+4007 didn’t disappoint whom? Is this that number good or bad for the GOP? How goes it for the week for us (GOP)?

  1394. michael corleone says:

    1423 – It’s terrible for the GOP. In first day of second week the Ds are matching their statewide lead from the entire first week. But, even with this differential, Dems are way off their 2016 performance as a percentage of the vote. But GOP needs to show up – they normally do better Monday – Thursday.

  1395. Marv says:

    mnw,

    Good point! Republicans watch college football on Sat, so, there’s that.

  1396. Mr.Vito says:

    Tough to say yet… Clark EV on the first Saturday was D+4429.

  1397. Mr.Vito says:

    So with a few small counties left to report, the lead is D+3211 for this week after Day1… little to no VBM was reported today in the various counties.

    It was worse at this point on Week1. But, too early to draw any conclusions. Week2 may not go like Week1.

  1398. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito, what is the total # of votes the Dems are up by in Clark County so far? I believe they need at least 35,000 when all is said and done.

  1399. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, overall turnout from Clark today wasn’t any better than it was the rest of the week, when comparing to 2016.

  1400. Marv says:

    #1427 MrVito,

    Worse for the Dems or us?

  1401. MichiganGuy says:

    22,0000 lead for the dems in Clark County?

  1402. MichiganGuy says:

    SB 22,000

  1403. Mr.Vito says:

    “Worse for the Dems or us?”

    Worse for the GOP last week at this point.

  1404. Mr.Vito says:

    In Clark the lead is about 22000, yes.

    Ralston says he thinks 35000 would make the Dems comfortable, but not necessarily win.

    The thing is, the turnout is tracking more like a presidential year… he even says that. In 2012, Heller won even though the lead out of Clark was nearly 72000 votes after early voting.

  1405. MichiganGuy says:

    Thx Vito, so that is very good news for us.

  1406. Mr.Vito says:

    Maybe. It all depends on whether the patterns hold.

  1407. Marv says:

    #1433 MrVito,

    OK, got it, thanks. A 422 vote Clark County Dem vote drop-off from last Sat. That should be considered a positive sign for the GOP. Does that about sum it up?

  1408. michael corleone says:

    Ralston overstates the Dem position. that said, even he is hedging that even a 40k Clark lead may not be enough for Rosen. Basically, on a percentage basis, GOP performing much better this cycle in early vote than they did in 2012 or 2016. I don’t think 2014 is the proper comparison because there was no seriously contested statewide race that cycle.

  1409. Mr.Vito says:

    “That should be considered a positive sign for the GOP. Does that about sum it up?”

    Marv, I would just say those are the numbers, and would wait to draw any conclusions. It was a solid number for the Dems from Clark, but netted less than last Saturday.

    Tomorrow only Clark and Washoe vote, so the lead will expand again… it won’t be until after Day3 that you will be able to see how much bite the Little Reds are still capable of taking out of the Clark numbers.

  1410. Mr.Vito says:

    Also, Dems won Washoe, but also by far less than last Saturday. If the GOP can flip Washoe red quicker this week, it will help a lot.

  1411. <