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Braun leads By 3% in IN, Sinema Leads By 3% in AZ, Nelson/Scott Tied in FL

Yesterday, CBS News and YouGov released polls in Indiana, Florida and Arizona that show a seemingly conflicting numbers if you are looking for a singular swing in the direction of one party or another.

US SENATE – INDIANA (CBS News/YouGov)
Mike Braun (R) 46%
Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 32%
Lucy Benton (L) 3%

US SENATE – ARIZONA (CBS News/YouGov)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%
Martha McSally (R) 44%

US SENATE – FLORIDA (CBS News/YouGov)
Rick Scott (R) 46%
Bill nelson (D-inc) 46%

These polls were done October 23-26 among likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 6:10 am
Filed under: General | Comments (1,185)

1,185 Responses to “Braun leads By 3% in IN, Sinema Leads By 3% in AZ, Nelson/Scott Tied in FL”

  1. EML says:

    Number One

  2. Redmen4ever says:

    In Change Research’s mid October poll of Minnesota, Republicans were only down by 2 points in the generic congressional ballot. In the four prior polls of the state in which the generic congressional ballot was included, Republicans were down about 10, approximately equal to their deficit in 2016. Of course, a lot rides on the distribution of the vote. But, it is reasonable to think we could have a net pickup in this state. Most likely scenario: we take MN01 and MN08 from them and they take MN03 from us; and, MN02 and MN07 are in play.

  3. EML says:

    Numbers are in for souls to the polls day in Florida. Dems turn a 5270 in person ballot deficit to a 6038 advantage. Mail ins remain steady at +65000 GOP. Overall lead drops from +70K to +59K

  4. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Updated as of Monday morning:

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 42.88%
    Democrats 39.01%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +65,084

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.24%
    Democrats 40.07%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +59,046

  5. Albert Hodges says:

    EML

    If those numbers are complete and correct, that seems like we are in great shape, doesnt it?

  6. Albert Hodges says:

    Id like your thoughts as well, Skippy.

  7. Skippy says:

    2016 Florida 8 days out from Election Day (Oct 31st)

    VBM = Republicans +64,124
    EV-In Person = Democrats +38,513
    VBM + EV-In Person = Republicans +15,052

    2018 Florida 8 days out from Election Day (Oct 29th)
    VBM = Republicans +65,084
    EV-In Person = Democrats +6,038
    VBM + EV-In Person = Republicans +59,046

  8. SoHope says:

    I like these numbers. The D’s shot their wad with STTP and the GOP kept their powder dry with their 20 some odd countries just opening early voting.

  9. Tina says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/athein1?p=s

    This Twitter feed provides an analysis of Nv. Person also does some posts on Florida.

    Ht Schweikaer

  10. RB says:

    So did the dems underperform on first Sunday of EV

  11. Todd McCain says:

    GOP has got to correct the issues in Washoe county this week in the Nevada numbers; cant just keep letting the Dems get 3000 net votes a day in Clark.

  12. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #10- RB
    Yes although one County–Palm Beach– has not yet reported yesterday’s results, which should diminish the cumulative GOP lead by a minor amount. Palm Beach is not a Souls to the Polls County per se.

  13. Todd McCain says:

    Seems to me that the GOP effectively withstood STTP and should add to the lead throughout the week. Early voting ends on Friday right?

  14. dblaikie says:

    Cow Counties in Nevada were closed on Sunday. That will end today. Please remember in the early vote for both Clark and Washoe is the very efficient, powerful, and effective campaign of the Culinary Workers to get their people to the polls — paid time, bus trip provided. That effect will lesson on election day.

    In 2012 by the end of early voting Heller was basically tied with his opponent but after election day Heller was 20000 votes ahead. That should instruct you with the effect of Culinary Workers, otherwise known by native Nevadans as the Reid Machine.

  15. RB says:

    I think the Rurals will come back this week and put those dents in the Clark EV like last week…agreed on Washue

  16. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #13- Todd
    I agree that the GOP survived the Democrat onslaughts this weekend in Florida and Nevada in decent shape.

  17. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    In 2016 the Democrats added to their lead everyday from 7 days out from the election until Election Day.

    I expect the same thing will happen in 2018 as well. The age of the early/VBM voter in the last week of early voting goes down.

    The question is does the Democrats get to +60,000?…+70,000?…match 2016 number of +96,000?

    We shall see.

  18. dblaikie says:

    Heller was tied in Washoe County, not the whole state.

  19. Hugh says:

    Uh oh bad news. All the EV showing very low voting by those 29 and under 2% to 6%, but now this poll. We are doomed!!

    jaichind says:

    October 29, 2018 at 5:41 am

    Young Americans are more likely to vote this year than past two midterms, new poll finds

  20. hugh says:

    At this rate in FL the dems will be lucky to get to even. You can stick a fork in FL. its ovah

  21. dblaikie says:

    One of the things about this site is that we all love to parse the numbers. Of course the early vote is not the final result and things could change. But I believe it is more accurate than most of these bogus polls! And we can take one certainty from these numbers the GOP is more enthused than the Dems. After all we don’t have to bus our folks to the polls!

  22. HHR says:

    Only the Indians poll is correct. Trash the polls where the Republican is not leading.

  23. HHR says:

    Indiana

  24. dblaikie says:

    Great article by Paul Sperry on how Christine Ford is reaping a huge financial reward for her smearing of Bret Kavanagh. It is disgusting! Here is the article: https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2018/10/27/nothing_to_gain_kavanaugh_accusers_coffers_are_growing.html

  25. dblaikie says:

    HHR you are an idiot. When a poll is published that gives the Dem. a lead most posters here are scared to death. But having said that we are also realists. CNN hates the GOP because of Trump, so does the NYT, MSNBC, Wash. Post, CBS, and most of the Colleges across America. Why shouldn’t we suspect that some of this bias is reflected in their polls. Why shouldn’t we wonder if their polls are not to give an accurate picture of the race polled, but instead a tool to further a narrative?

  26. MichiganGuy says:

    New Jersey Senate:
    .
    Menendez 47%
    Hugin 42%
    Undecided 7%
    .
    Michigan Senate:
    .
    Stabenow 52%
    James 43%
    Undecided 4%
    .
    Emerson Poll
    https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-poll-democrats-favored-pick-governorships-mi-nm-hold-us-senate-seat-nj#.W9bkH9VKiUm

  27. Waingro says:

    #22, Troll Alert.

  28. Waingro says:

    #26, Man, Hugin is gonna fall JUST short in NJ isn’t he?

    What a tremendous pickup that would be though. I am still amazed no one stopped up to primary Menendez. He was ripe for the picking.

  29. Todd McCain says:

    Menendez is going to win, but he cannot take comfort in these numbers. What is helping Hugin though is that there is no other marquee race at the top. Dems really don’t have much to show up for.

  30. Todd McCain says:

    If this were 2010 or 2014, Menendez would have went down; but still got a week.

  31. DW says:

    “Only the Indians poll is correct.”

    They were already knocked out of the playoffs, and the Red Sox just finished off the Dodgers in the World Series, so wouldn’t this poll be dated and useless?

  32. GF says:

    Some young people may be more likely to vote, but others have PTSD courtesy of Trump and could get triggered by voting, so maybe it’s a wash;

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-6304155/25-millennials-say-PTSD-2016-election-study-says.html

    Personally, if they all ended up in psych wards, that would be the best thing to happen to thing country in ages; I have far more hope for Gen Z than this useless crowd.

  33. Hugh says:

    Many posts ago I was half right half wrong. Early voting ends this coming Saturday not on Sunday. Very good news indeed

  34. Hugh says:

    I forgot to mention I’m talking about Florida.

  35. DW says:

    LA Times out with a generic ballot poll that is D+17 (57/40) of 2350 likely voters.

  36. DW says:

    And that LA Times claims to be a national poll, not just a California generic ballot.

  37. mnw says:

    Otoh, RAS today:

    Trump JA 50/49

    As good as it gets.

  38. MichiganGuy says:

    #35 “A second measure in the poll that factors in voters’ estimates of how likely they are to cast a ballot also shows Democrats ahead by a narrower 52% to 42%.”
    .
    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181029-story.html

  39. DW says:

    38 – the larger picture is the LA Times poll cannot square with the expectation the GOP is poised to flip several senate seats while holding NV and AZ. It also does not square with the individual polling of house races.

  40. Skippy says:

    According to the Emerson Michigan poll 44% of the respondents have never heard of John James…3% for Stabenow.

    It’s important for John James to finish this race strong for it will help him greatly for his next attempt. Next time John James runs for office his name recognition won’t be so low.

  41. Redmen4ever says:

    The LAT poll is an opt-in poll that they think they can make representative through weighting.

    NOT!

    The utter disaster of this poll shows that weighting is not a cure-all for polls, and – because low response rates are ubiquitous nowadays – puts all polls that rely on weighting into question.

    We are essentially grasping at straws.

  42. Waingro says:

    Adam Smith
    ?Verified account @adamsmithtimes
    2m2 minutes ago

    New York Times Poll: Andrew Gillum 48, Ron DeSantis 43

    https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/29/new-york-times-poll-andrew-gillum-48-ron-desantis-45/

  43. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #42- Waingro
    This is the recently completed NYT/ Siena/ Cohn Poll.

  44. dblaikie says:

    What can you say about this poll? Seventeen points! Since it is a supposed national poll how can they publish this propaganda in the face of the early voting across this country. Talk about a poll that is not ambiguous! It leaves you with two clear choices: It sees stuff that no one else sees and the blue wave is reality. Or it is a bunch of garbage. You decide. I choose garbage.

  45. DW says:

    Any poll built on weighting that is an opt-in poll is worthless–all anyone has to do to move the needle is say claim to be a R voting for the D.

  46. DW says:

    Much more concerning to me is the VA_07 poll by Christopher Newport showing Brat (R) down one point, 45/46. Sample is 871 likely voters too. CNU isn’t a bad pollster. Hopefully the undecided will tilt toward Brat.

  47. DW says:

    By comparison, CNU recently found Taylor (VA_02) up 50/43.

  48. dblaikie says:

    You gotta love this. Down on the very bottom of the Sienna Poll is this little tidbit:

    “About 8 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans.

    If they were to break 10 to 3 in favor of Republicans, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or other voters could change their minds.)”

    In other words things are fine for DeSantis despite the headline which we write to be disingenuous.

  49. RB says:

    The lack of dem enthusiasm in NJ will hopefully translate to NJ-3 and NJ-7. Would be great to go 2/2 there

    Even with the lack of dem enthusiasm NJ-11 would be a tough hill to get up

  50. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Florida has been updated to reflect Palm Beach County early voting yesterday. The GOP lead dropped from 59,000 earlier this morning to 55,400 now.

  51. jason says:

    I said the IN race was looking like Young-Bayh last week. Competitive until the bottom fell out for Bayh
    at the end.

  52. DW says:

    Clearly the best poll of the weekend for the GOP was the finished Siena/NY Times poll of CA_25 showing Knight (R) up 48/44. And even at that, throughout the last 20 or so responses, it kept waffling back and forth between 49/44 and 48/44.

    Obviously it is huge if the losses in CA could be limited to CA_49, and then either CA_45, CA_39 or CA_10. My inclination is that we lose CA_45 and that CA_10 and CA_39 could go either way, with CA_39 tilting R and CA_10 tilting D.

  53. Wobbles says:

    Otoh, RAS today:

    Trump JA 50/49″

    This is terrible, after all the bomba and the synagogue where Trump’s fault.

  54. DW says:

    But even if we lost three in CA, that is well short of what some were talking weeks ago, losing as many as six.

  55. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 – 8 days out from Election Day:

    VBM + EV-In Person = Republicans +15,052

    Florida 2018 – 8 days out from Elections Day:

    VBM +EV-In Person = Republicans +55,391

  56. DW says:

    Anther race to keep an eye on.

    NM_01 – Emerson, 327 likely voters.

    Haaland (D) 51%
    Arnold-Jones (R) 41%

    RCP is alone calling it likely D–the rest its Safe D.

  57. Todd McCain says:

    Hopefully during the week the GOP recovers the ground lost from STTP. There isn’t another Sunday in EV.

  58. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    History tells us Republicans will recover a little bit tomorrow as VBM numbers over the weekend gets dumped into Tuesday morning. But Democrats will slice into the lead Wednesday & Thursday. Democrats will probably take the overall lead on Friday. The questions is how much?…how short will the Democrats be from getting +96,000 advantage in overall early voting.

    Besides tomorrow, the Republicans will not increase their lead this week…not Wednesday through Saturday.

  59. Redmen4ever says:

    48 – remember that’s what Kellyanne saw in 2016. People who were undecided but whose value were Republican. She says Trump was never ahead in their polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, but there were enough undecideds for Trump to win.

  60. DW says:

    Probably the scariest number out of the Brazil election is the 45% of voters in a democracy who want communism instead.

  61. DW says:

    CA_48 and TX_32 added to the pile for Siena today. Still no interest in NV_03 or NV_04.

  62. Todd McCain says:

    Seems to me that Siena polls the race until they get the result they want….

  63. Phil says:

    DW, I would be really surprised if We hang on in Tx 7. The Democrats have thrown almost 5 million into the race and Fletcher’s advertising is non stop 24/7. fletcher cuts a new negative ad every couple of days. No answer ever from Culberson. I think he’s spent maybe a buck fifty on the race. It’s like he has no money at all. I don’t get it.

  64. DW says:

    Lets not lose sight of the fact that there are two distinct entities.

    1) Siena polling. They poll NY house races and have done so for years.

    2) NY-Times/Siena polling. The NY Times hired Siena College to do polling for them, and we don’t necessarily know all the conditions/constraints the NY Times placed on them.

    And don’t forget what I said earlier, that of the 7 competitive NY house races from 2014 and 2016 polled by Siena, all seven polls favored the Dem compared to the actual result.

    Obviously we have no track record on the NY-Times/Siena polling as this gimmick is brand new.

  65. DW says:

    63 – well, Siena tried twice and couldn’t get a Dem lead, and PPP-D released an internal showing the Dem +2. We will see, but I am thinking we hold onto TX_07.

  66. RB says:

    Have thought this for awhile—with so few polls out there(except CNN and NBC insistance to poll TX again and again)…NYT-Siena is really setting the narrative and having way more of an impact than they should…if there assumption are on then fine, but if there assumptions are off either way than big ooops

    Usually FOX, Marist(NBC), CNN, Suffolk, Mason Dixin, hecj even PPP would have tons of polls in swing states(look at 2014)…this year crickets.

  67. DW says:

    66 – I have been pointing it out for a few weeks. 538’s page is so absurd, that it literally bounces house seats back and forth based on the in progress results of Siena/NY Times polling.

  68. DW says:

    from RRH:

    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1056649872135385089
    When asked whether the surge in Republican turnout is shown in the NYT/Siena polls Nate Cohn dismissed the impact. It doesn’t matter whether the electorate in a district is close to what they’re using or not because they’re all voting Democratic anyway.

  69. DW says:

    So it sounds like he is saying you can forget all the early voting data, because the Republicans are all voting for Democrats.

  70. DW says:

    Cruz up 51/46 in Quinnipiac poll. They are just determined to keep polling TX until the Dem clown has a lead.

  71. mnw says:

    TX SEN

    Q poll:

    51/46 (Cruz +5)

  72. RB says:

    The best measure to see if there are big R crossover votes is to look at the national polls and see what Trumps approval is for Republican voters

    My hunch is that GOP candidates are getting 90-95% of GOP registered voters

  73. NYCmike says:

    Quick question about all of these VBM and Early Voting statistics: are these numbers the number of voters along with their party registration, or are these the numbers of actual votes for a particular candidate?

    I am assuming that it is simply the number of voters……as opposed to actual votes for the specific candidate.

    Is that correct?

  74. DW says:

    72 – they must be gambling that the never trump people are still registered R and are so outraged that they are ready to shoot themselves in the foot and vote D because they hate Trump so much. I have a number of friends who were never trump. All but one of them is now approving of the results we are getting from Trump, and the one who is still never Trump is voting GOP.

  75. DW says:

    73- none of the actual votes are counted until election day.

  76. NYCmike says:

    thanks

  77. Scooterboy says:

    I saw somewhere that Trump is at 29% Stronly approve and overall 40% approval with AA in the RAS poll.

    Aren’t we in unchartered territory if that’s the case?

  78. DW says:

    But if the leftist pundits are banking on the early vote going their way because its angry Rs voting for Ds, they will be in for a big surprise–if they truly believe that. The Ds could well flip the house, but if they do it won’t be because angry Rs went out of their way to vote early and vote D.

  79. Victc says:

    Just his bias is The NY Times, and by virtue their polling, the list Dana Rohrabocker as a “pro-putin” candidate rightnin their headline banner.

    I mean,,, wow

  80. DW says:

    77 – lets probe that a bit. Lets say for the sake of argument that across the board the average Republican does 5 points better among AAs than a typical mid-term election. What would that mean? So many are in ghetto districts that go 90/10 for Democrats anyway, that it wouldn’t make much difference. The smaller percentage in the suburbs would probably mitigate any sizable affect on the results.

  81. Phil says:

    74. Agree, DW. A lot of the media and pollsters for that matter really do believe the hate for Trump is so over the top that a substantial amount of Republicans are going to vote D. They are projecting their own feelings of hate for Trump on to others – in this case soft Republicans.

    They said the same thing in 2016 and yet exits showed no more Republicans crossed over than Democrats. It is more like what they want to happen.

  82. DW says:

    One of the best lines from 2016 election night coverage came from Tucker Carlson on Fox News who said the contempt Trump supporters have for government was not as strong as the contempt the government had for those voters.

    The same of course can be said for the leftist media. The contempt conservative voters have for the media is not as strong as the contempt the media has for those voters.

  83. NYCmike says:

    “Aren’t we in unchartered territory if that’s the case?”

    -I believe Trump will be a long-term plus for the Republican Party, in terms of helping to attract minorities.

    He is most definitely NOT a racist, despite some of his past statements.

    Maybe it helps that I live in NYC, where every day you deal with a wide range of nationalities, religions, levels of affluence, etc.

    Trump has no problem speaking with, and speaking to, minorities of any color/race/creed/religion. Never has. Again, he developed property in NYC, where there could be 10 different interest groups looking to receive some form of handout/assistance/opportunity with every project that becomes public knowledge. You learn to deal/work with many different types of individuals if you want to get things done.

  84. DW says:

    I keep pondering the Siena (regular Siena, not NYTimes) poll of NY_24.

    They did two polls of the race in 2016, and found Katko (R) at 53% and 54%.

    This year, they have done two polls of the race and found Katko (R) at 54% and 53%.

    This is the exact sort of seat that would show leaks if there was a forthcoming blue-wave. Instead we see numbers consistent with what we see in early voting. The GOP is interested, and showing up to vote.

  85. DW says:

    People at RRH are debating between Dem gains of +40 and +60.

  86. Scooterboy says:

    Positive movement for Trump up to 50% in RAS but negative movement dropping to 40% in Gallup. These polls are all over the place.

  87. DW says:

    D+40 means they grabbed literally ALL the tossups, and D+60 means they also ran the table on Lean R and picked off a few Likely R like NY_24 and AR_02.

  88. lisab says:

    People at RRH are debating between Dem gains of +40 and +60.
    ————————————-

    i think you were right in that some think there will be a significant anti-trump vote among the R’s

  89. Todd McCain says:

    I think DEMS narrowly win the House; plus 25 or so. This makes the House basically ungovernable.

  90. ReadyFirst says:

    I’m sure this violence will be condemned by the leftists here as vehemently as their diatribes we had to listen to last week.
    https://www.wesh.com/article/shots-fired-into-volusia-county-republican-headquarters-police-say/24402544

  91. RB says:

    Final Rurals came in from Saturday(except one county that typically has single digit numbers a day)

    GOP picked up about 100

    For week one total is about -4400
    So far week 2 GOP down -6834
    Total-11234

    GOP historically picks up today

  92. lisab says:

    well yes, i am against all political brown shirt tactics, and have said so several times

  93. ReadyFirst says:

    lisab, I don’t remotely put you in that category and apologize if it came across that way. Perhaps I have a soft spot for Utopian Socialists.

  94. ReadyFirst says:

    I was referring to our more sanctimonious posters who shall not be named (I consider them like Valdemort) because when you mention them by name they show up and clog a thread with their ridiculous assertions.

  95. lisab says:

    well good, because i was in the peace corps not the marine corps so guns are not my thing

    history is full of examples where mob political violence led to significant bad things

    like the peloponnesian war, as told by thucydides

  96. ReadyFirst says:

    Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God. Tons of respect here for your service in the peace corps.

  97. lisab says:

    thanks, but that is a little over the top,

    i just wanted to serve my country

    in the way i was personally able

    and was/am very proud to have served my country

    (not with a gun of course, but i don’t think anyone here would want me in the military)

  98. jaichind says:

    Looking at house ratings. It seems to me everyone agrees on 15 Dem pickups and 1 GOP pickup. There are 32 GOP seats which are disputed by different ratings sources.
    I tend to use the 2012 model since I think there is no mega wave in favor of either side. In 2012 3/4 of tossups went the Dem way plus 2 extra surprise Dem wins.
    So the medium case is 30 Dem pickup. But more likely it is a 2012 like GOP or Dem over-performance which will be Dem pickup of 20 or 40 depending on which side over-performs like 2012. For now it is more likely to be Dem but I think it could end up being GOP over-performing which means GOP barely holds the House.

  99. jaichind says:

    Trump’s Approval Rating Plunges Amid Wave of Pre-Midterm Violence

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/trump-approval-rating-plunges-amid-violence-as-midterms-approach

    This poll is for all Adults. Article does not point out that other polls for RV/LV does not show a drop at all for Trump Approval Rating.

  100. jaichind says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/white-house-is-said-to-brace-for-gop-losses-and-staff-exodus

    It seems if the GOP could over-perform in House races the White House does not think that is the case.

  101. ReadyFirst says:

    Florida, voted by mail RETURNED numbers, as of 10-29-2018:
    Rep-725,309 Dem-661,539 Other-9,283 NPA-297,946 Total-1,694,077 as of 10/29/2018 1:05PM

    This translates, in a bellwether state, to the following percentage of Total Absentee Vote Provided response rate:
    Rep-21.2% Dem-19.3%

    Early Vote numbers as of 10/29/2018 1:05PM:
    Republican 433,585 – Democrat 441,889. A swing of roughly 14,000 in favor of Dems after Sunday.

    *of note, Reps have a net difference of 52,632 in total absentee ballots. The Reps trend maintains an almost 2% lead in absentee voting.
    These are real, not poll votes!
    No blue wave yet!
    https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

  102. Todd McCain says:

    Early voting in AZ continues to look good for the GOP with a 10.6 point lead. DEMS had a good weekend, but even the weekend batch was 6.5% lead for the GOP. I like McSally’s chances.

  103. DW says:

    104 – you posted that already.

  104. ReadyFirst says:

    Interesting, seems very plausible:

    Walk ins, Ds have a 6,000 lead. On same date in 2016 they had a 154,000 walk-in lead.

    Trump won by 113,000.

    Final weekend could change things but this “seems” to point to a final R total at the end of election day of about 250,000.

    That would be a 3-point Scott victory
    https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1056958159489650688

  105. DW says:

    Dem Internal of NE_02

    Eastman (D) 45%
    Bacon (R) 52%

  106. DW says:

    So last week they were pushing fundraising as the tell of a blue wave.

    This week its Rs voting for Ds.

  107. DW says:

    All of them have NE_02 as just Lean R, but the Dem internal says a 7 point hole, and the Republican over 50%.

  108. Skippy says:

    #108 ReadyFirst,

    Republicans had +49,072 in person voting advantage 8 days out from Election Day.

    Not 154,000.

  109. ReadyFirst says:

    This guy does some good number crunching:

    IA: Right now Rs down 22,000 in absentees in IA. Bad, right?
    No. In 2016 Rs finished down about 44,000, which was half of where it was in 2012 (-88,000).

    Now, we don’t know how many absentees will come in this week, but it won’t be 20,000. IA looking good.
    https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1056956225693208578

  110. Skippy says:

    Correction.

    Dems had +49,072 advantage with in-person voting 8 days out from Election Day.

    Not 154,000 advantage.

  111. ReadyFirst says:

    112. Not my numbers, I just cut and pasted that from his tweet for ease of reading. He is talking 2016 there. Are you comparing apples to apples?

  112. Todd McCain says:

    I think Larry is stating overall; in 2016 at the end of in person voting, DEMS did have a 150K lead.

  113. Skippy says:

    Yes, I’m talking apples to apples vs 2016 cycle.

    8 days out from Election Day be 8 days out from Election Day.

    Republicans, today, are enjoying about a 40,000 vote advantage by party, vs 2016 cycle vs Democrats.

  114. phoenixrisen says:

    110 — In the words of Dusty (Philip Seymour Hoffman) from “Twister”, “IMMINENT RUEAGE”

    This is going to be ugly for them. Practically no one saw this coming in 2016. I did predict that Trump would win with 307 EV but it was speculation on what I was seeing in the LA Times/USC and Trafalgar polls. The hard data in this mid-term completely contradicts the media and political punditry narrative.

  115. DW says:

    I have dropped CA_25 from my list of uncalled races, meaning it will stay in the GOP column I am predicting. Between now and election day I will be making final calls on each and every house seat, and will make my final overall seat prediction.

    Siena’s poll of CA_25 increased the gap from their prior poll, and this has all the earmarks of an incumbent who did his job and the challenger did not quite have enough appeal to flip the seat.

    My current outlook on the House:

    Dems need to flip 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current expectation:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_11, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, + 7 others and 2 surprises = 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08 + 1 surprise = 4 flips

    Dem seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to R: AZ_01, NH_01, NV_03, NV_04

    GOP seats I have not yet determined whether or not they might flip to D: FL_27, CA_10, CA_45, NJ_03, NY_22, NY_19, NC_09, IA_03, IL_06, KS_02, CA_39, NJ_07, PA_01

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

  116. ReadyFirst says:

    Out of curiosities sake Skippy, where do you find those numbers? I have the DOE site, but from what I see, all they archive is the final election day numbers for each race.

  117. ReadyFirst says:

    The other elephant in the room not talked about is which way the Indies break. From personal experience, I believe the Indies, at least in FL, will break for the Reps, which makes winning for Dems next to impossible. For that matter, it will also be interesting to see what happens with Dems in FL as some FL Dems still tend to be a bit on the conservative side. Not a lot, but maybe enough.

  118. Todd McCain says:

    Dems had a 96K lead after all early voting combined in 2016 and we still won; I’d say we are in pretty good shape in Florida despite the weekend.

  119. ReadyFirst says:

    Very cool! Thanks Skippy!

  120. ReadyFirst says:

    123. TM Yep, which is why after the primaries I was already saying no blue wave.

  121. Todd McCain says:

    Wow, the dems added 55K votes in one day from Nov 6 to Nov 7.

  122. Todd McCain says:

    Nov 6 to Nov 7 2016

  123. Robbie says:

    It’s hard to believe suggesting their might be another asinine round of tariffs imposed on China would cause the Dow to go from a 300 point gain to a 400 point loss.

    MAGA! Trade wars are good an easy to win.

  124. sane_voter says:

    RCP House ratings

    D 205
    R 200

    30 tossups

    They have control of the house at a knife’s edge

  125. sane_voter says:

    RCP Senate rankings

    R 54
    D 46

    R’s flip ND, MO, IN
    D’s no flips

  126. dblaikie says:

    Reading Jon Ralston this year is my comedic therapy for the week. Come on Jon, in 2016, after week one the Dems. had a lead including Absentees of 28000 votes. This year after week one including Absentees it is around 7000 votes. What is really amusing is that he doesn’t factor in Nevada Day (I was born and raised in Carson City and it is a big deal. Not only for the Capital but for Douglas, Storey and Lyon too. And none of the Cow Counties voted except Carson City. Yet he talks about the “big weekend” the Dems had.

  127. dblaikie says:

    You can add Florida and I believe Montana to that. And who knows what will happen in New Jersey and Michigan. At least as far as the Senate is concerned there is a real possibility of a red wave.

  128. sane_voter says:

    Next to flip for R’s IMO

    FL
    MT
    NJ
    MN special

  129. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    Are you upset about the tariffs, the one-day decline in the DOW, or the fact that a lot voters seem to like Trump’s calls for tariffs?

  130. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Arizona, in actual numbers, the GOP grew its early vote lead from Friday to today from 93,927 to 103,685.

  131. ReadyFirst says:

    Election day in FL is going to be a Charlie Foxtrot. I spent over an hour last night on the phone with my daughter researching the 12 amendments. Lines are going to be nuts. Early vote for me.

    “16 minutes and 8 seconds. That’s how long it took me, an informed voter, to vote all of the 7-page ballot after skimming all the questions in Miami-Dade County”
    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1056967854069899266

  132. NYCmike says:

    Considering that Floridians have like 2 weeks or so to vote, there is NO excuse to not vote.

  133. sane_voter says:

    I never understood people who first read the ballot at the voting booth. I always have my sample ballot with the choices marked so it takes me 1 minute to fill in the ovals and then a quick review to make sure I didn’t make a mistake or miss any races, then slip it in the voting machine and get my sticker.

    I am a South Florida voter so I only vote in person. I don’t trust the Dem machine to count my ballot if I mail it in.

  134. BayernFan says:

    I don’t shame people who don’t want or care to vote. As far as I am concerned, they have every right to not want or care to vote. When they don’t vote, they are doing their civic duty as well, and my vote counts more.

  135. Wes says:

    Republicans in ND say Cramer is up 11. Even counting this as an internal , it’s pretty clear Heitkamp is doomed.

  136. Hugh says:

    All the good news on EV and it’s all for nothing. We now know from the wp poll that young people said they are going to vote in droves and Bloomberg scooped that the white house has plans if we lose the house. I was just starting to get enthusiastic.

  137. Hugh says:

    I had my voter guide in hand and it took me about 5 minutes to fill in and double check.

  138. DW says:

    141 – and don’t forget last week FUNDRAISING was the only metric that mattered, and this week, its all the early Rs showing up to vote are really ANGRY Rs who are showing up in droves to vote D.

  139. Wes says:

    Desperate to win, AK Dems are now saying Don Young uses forceful handshakes as a means of intimidation:

    https://www.adn.com/politics/2018/10/27/as-galvin-leads-money-race-spokesman-for-rep-young-says-he-wasnt-trying-to-hurt-challenger-with-handshake/

  140. Mr.Vito says:

    One of the bellweathers in the NV Cow Counties is tiny Mineral County.

    Here are its stats from Week1
    TotalVotes; EV%; TotalBallots%

    2010: 500; R+2.4%; N/A
    2012: 800; R-0.5%; R+2.8%
    2014: 475; R+9.0%; R+13.9%
    2016: 670; R+1.1%; R+5.5%
    2018: 618; R+9.6%; R+13.3%

  141. DW says:

    Watching Siena finish their poll of NY_27. They started this afternoon with about 12 responses to go, and right away four R votes popped in and it went from 44/40 to 45/40. Then a long delay, then another R vote followed by an undecided vote, and it went back down to 44/40. They must have some whacky weighting.

  142. DW says:

    145 – you didn’t get the memo–the R surge in early vote is due to angry Rs voting for Ds.

  143. Mr.Vito says:

    144: That probably seals the win for Young. Good grief, did you see her look at the cameras and make sure she was heard?

  144. ReadyFirst says:

    147 – The excuses keep getting more and more whacky. I’m sure the Russians will be playing a major role at some point.

  145. DW says:

    Next excuse:

    Any poll showing good news for Rs is faulty because Republicans are so angry at Trump they couldn’t concentrate during the poll, but on election day they will be thinking clearly and vote D.

  146. DW says:

    NY_27 Siena Poll finished:

    44/40, R+4

  147. mnw says:

    RE: STTP:

    I heard a rumor from some dude (Ralph Reeb? Rolf Reid? Something like that) who claims that white churchgoers* vote too sometines– especially down in the Land o’ Cotton.

    *efngelicals? Is that what they call these folks?

  148. Scooterboy says:

    Hillary tried to crack a joke when a moderator confused Cory Booker and Eric Holder. She said, ” I know they all look alike”.
    Can you imagine what would happen if Trump had said this?

  149. lisab says:

    Robbie,

    Are you upset about the tariffs, the one-day decline in the DOW, or the fact that a lot voters seem to like Trump’s calls for tariffs?
    ———————————————

    he is only against tariffs so he can get jason on his side in attacking trump.

  150. lisab says:

    the trolls are in a real bind

    if they agree with the polls and claim the republicans are facing a blue wave, like they were a few weeks ago, and it does not happen

    then they will look like fools

    but they cannot say things are looking better for the republicans either. also, if they say that the polls are wrong and there is a blue wave, they will look like fools again.

    they cannot afford to be thaaaat wrong again like they were in 2016.

  151. lisab says:

    but it was funny to see robbie demand that the entire fox line up be fired.

    frustration among dems is very high

  152. lisab says:

    if the dems do not take the house, and i think they will,

    but if they don’t

    there will be hell to pay in the democrat party.

    they will lose a big percentage of the youth vote and some minority vote if they don’t show some victories.

    the term “death spiral” comes to mind

  153. mnw says:

    lisab

    A gain of +3 GOP in the Senate would free the party from “bipartisan heroes” like McPain & Murkowski.

    RCP (& I, for now) think +3 is right: no R to D flips, & ND, MO & IN flip D to R.

  154. RB says:

    Fox news team fired

    Like Chris Mattews, Lawrence ODonnel, Rachel Maddow, Joe Scarborough(who once loved POTUS and wanted to be his VP ?), The guy on at 6PM, and pretty much every analyst tbey have there are not over the top.

    If you want to fire fox better round up MSNBC and CNN as well

  155. RB says:

    Mnw…i think GOP gets those 3…im not sold on AZ or NV for the GOP or MT and FL for the dems

    I think Manchin has WV locked up

  156. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    158. “:if the dems do not take the house, and i think they will, but if they don’t there will be hell to pay in the democrat party.”

    Agree lisab, but if they take it by a small majority, which like you I expect may happen, it is going to be a clown show. The divisions among the Democrats will break open, and it might actually help Trump in 2020.

  157. hugh says:

    AZ is fools gold for the dems. it is gone. I would say the same for NV, but maybe Ralston who goes from cheerleading to somber knows a little more than me. However, I would bet on heller. Fl flips. I think it is more than likely MT flips. At least I hope so since I have a 1K investment on all of these by AZ where I think she wins easy.

  158. RB says:

    http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/breaking–senate-dead-heat-and-dominant-ducey

    McSalley +1

    They take into account the 10% GOP EV
    Both candidates loosing about 10% of thier party

    They have MCSalley up 3 with indies…but loosing indy women by 50

  159. hugh says:

    166. Here is all you need to know. The Survey under 29 vote 10% over 65 vote 25%. Now compare that to actual votes so far, which it is likely about 40% of the vote is cast. Next do the algebra for the survey’s demographic breakdown. It is laughable. She wins by 5 or more. its Ovah

  160. Florida Guy says:

    As you saw with CBS news poll, Gillum is NOT up 5 points. I believe he is up 1-2. If South Floirda sjows up and GOP does not, then I can see a 5% win.

  161. Todd McCain says:

    Here is the thing; if Ducey is really winning by 20 are there really going to be that many Ducey / Sinema voters…?? I really doubt it .

  162. Tina says:

    The AZ Data Guru
    @Garrett_Archer
    5h
    .@SecretaryReagan Early Ballots for 10/29: 983k now in (45% est.). Parties: GOP 43.7% DEM 33.1% OTH 22.7% (+10.6 R). Women est. is now 50.3%, median age is 64, avg. age 61.2. arizona.vote/early-ballot-s…
    View summary ·

  163. lisab says:

    btw, i think the house will flip purely based on what the media is saying

    not based on any analysis

    i do not disagree with dw’s analysis of any of his races.

    i am just thinking the media likely cannot be so wrong again

  164. mnw says:

    hugh 167

    11% EV < age 34 is where it stands now, per rdel at RRH. That's in line with the new poll, I think.

    rdel's analysis of AZ in the comments thread at RRH is worth reading.

    I can not translate the older EV voters on AVERAGE, to ACTUAL percentages of votes cast per age group.* In any event, rdel purports to like what he's seeing in AZ thus far.

    *if that makes any sense

  165. Bio mom says:

    Surprised that Claire McCaskill was interviewed by Brey Baire on Fox tonight. Suggests she is worried.

  166. Bitterlaw says:

    164. Zzzzzzzzzzzz. Mika is a flaming lib on an opinion-based show on MSNBC. Why should she be objective?

  167. Hugh says:

    Unfortunately mnw. Under 29 is about 6% not 11

  168. JeffP says:

    I was looking into my bookie.ag to bet and they have the odds in favor of the GOP keeping the house and several states flipping in the Senate.

  169. Hugh says:

    Oh and over 65 about 46%. The poll is garbage.

  170. Bitterlaw says:

    Did Rdel fix his curve? He was as wrong as Polaris in 2008 and 2012. He was absent from here in 2016.

  171. Hugh says:

    Seems like every poll shows under 29 at 10
    To 11 %. Every early voter site shows more like 3 to 6%. Pollsters can’t get over the models created 18 months ago. Until employers pay millennials to vote they will generally sit it out.

  172. Tina says:

    More troops heading to the border.

    Jebots will be triggered.

  173. NYCmike says:

    ” Why should she be objective?”

    -I know that shows like Hannity, Tucker, Laura, etc are opinion shows.

    Libs I know swear that Morning Schmo and Mika, Maddow, Stephanopoulos, Rather etc are straight news people.

  174. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    FWIW, in the Siena/ NYT poll of PA CD-1, Fitzpatrick(R) beats Wallace(D) 47-46.

  175. Tina says:

    I know Mrs. schmo and Mr. schmo are ugly.

  176. RB says:

    Hoping FOX does some battlegrounds this week…would love to see MT-IN-FL-AZ-NV

  177. JeffP says:

    I am definitely putting some money down a several of these races. Having the early voting and no points to cover looks like some easy money….to me.

    Took the Pats giving 14 tonight against the Bills…I am more nervous covering that than the Senate races I will be betting on.

  178. Tina says:

    Jim Sciutto
    @jimsciutto
    Follow
    Notable: With new troop deployment to the US-Mexico border, the US will have about the same number of active military forces deployed to the border – 5000 – as to #Iraq – 5200. There are also an additional 2000 National Guard deployed at border.
    3:49 PM – 29 Oct 2018

    Spoken like a good Jebot. Does the Council on Foreign Relations approve?

  179. mnw says:

    BL

    If you wish to ignore rdel, while currying to your trollclient Vichey (& his “analysis”), why then be my guest.

    Personally, I think rdel’s analysis of the EV is persuasive.

  180. mnw says:

    187 “currying” sb “catering to”

  181. mnw says:

    182 Sheeple

    PA-01:

    That’s a rather significant turnaround from Wallace +7 in their last poll.

  182. RB says:

    Monmouth putting out an NY 19

    Quinn putting out a CT Governor poll on tomorrow where Trump has a higher JA than Lamont

  183. Tina says:

    Ryan Saavedra
    Ryan Saavedra
    @RealSaavedra
    Follow
    Far-left Arizona Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema continues to trash the people of her state, says if you talk about banning guns in Arizona that Arizonians will “actually shoot you” pic.twitter.com/U3jzHpWd6H
    6:30 PM – 29 Oct 2018

    More Enema!

  184. Scooby77 says:

    Of all the Senate races, the Arizona one completely blows my mind that it’s even close. If this is within 10 points, it’s a damn travesty. War hero vs war protester, she mocks her own state, doesn’t see treason in her radio interview. Good Lord, so ridiculous.

  185. Robbottie says:

    “Monmouth putting out an NY 19”

    Do they have pics of her?

  186. Jill says:

    Trump will be returning to MO on Monday, 11/5. His campaign has arranged to rent the big stadium at Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau, MO on that evening. He was scheduled to have a rally there in September but cancelled when Hurricane Florence was going to hit then.

  187. Marv says:

    Waiting for NV SOS to post today’s VBM and EV numbers.

  188. mnw says:

    Jill 194

    It will be cold!

    Hawley is “safe zone” enough that I think there are probably better venues to visit on that late date.

  189. Mr.Vito says:

    This is one of the patterns I keep seeing in Siena polls.

    In TX-32… in the first 101 respondents, 63 are male and 38 are female, and the men are split between the D and R.

    I can’t guarantee this will happen in this poll, but the pattern I’ve been seeing is that the rest of the life of the poll being spent fixing the split on the men because the poll is then weighted heavily toward the women.

    Maybe this will be the year of leftist white men coming out of the shadows to vote Democrat… they certainly are enthused about answering polls.

  190. Jill says:

    Hi, mnw! re 196, the crowd won’t freeze. That stadium is indoors.

    Cape Girardeau is one corner of the state that leans fairly red. There will probably be lots of lefty-leaning faculty and students protesting, but there will be right-leaning folks there too. The campus is very close to the IL state line and not that far north of TN. Trump may hit all 3 media markets with an appearance in CAPE.

  191. Mr.Vito says:

    The next 8 respondents were 7 women and 1 man, and the men split went from even to +7. Fun.

  192. Phil says:

    Mnw, how do things look on the ground from where you sit in Mo for Hawley. Your assessment of the race going into next Tuesday.

  193. jason says:

    I think mnw said Hawley will win unless he doesn’t.

  194. Bitterlaw says:

    187 mnw- You find it persuasive because you want to believe it. That is the appeal of Polaris and rdelbov. I do not find them any more or less credible than Robbie or anybody else. I predict that all predictions will be wrong to some extent. Anti-Trump hatred AND anti-Democrat/Media rage are real and impossible to predict.

  195. Tina says:

    Tinareports is calling Az

    Mcsally plus 5 over enema.

  196. Mr.Vito says:

    “… Anti-Trump hatred AND anti-Democrat/Media rage are real and impossible to predict.”

    The rage is pretty easy to predict.

    I assume you mean its impact on the vote.

  197. RB says:

    Bitter—here is a prediction for you…Chukka Fatah could win 90% of the vote in PA-2 even today

  198. Mr.Vito says:

    GOP won Washoe today.

  199. michael corleone says:

    Yup – GOP takes Washoe by 301 votes.

  200. Mr.Vito says:

    By 32 votes in EV, and about 300 with EV+VBM.

  201. michael corleone says:

    Why does Ralston pretend absentees are inferior votes?

  202. RB says:

    Good news in Washue

    Lets see what Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Lyon and Nye come in as…these are the Counties that collectively put a dent in Clark

  203. Bitterlaw says:

    RB – Maybe only 83%. In order to make surrounding districts more Democratic, Fattah’s old district might be a little more GOP leaning. The prior 3 Philadelphia Districts were so overwhelmingly Democratic, they could only by less so now.

  204. Hugh says:

    210. He is appealing to his audience. They are losing. He senses it but can’t admit it. He will hang on and spread fairy dust as long as he can. He really can’t compare to 16 because heller is much more popular than trump was in 16 so he will do better not worse with dems and indies. It’s not ovah like AZ but it’s close.

  205. VictrC says:

    I wonder if anyone else has noticed a marked change at Drudge. His posts are become more and more anti-GOP, and more negative towards Trump and the election. It’s almost as if he is trying to drive down enthusiasm. Maybe he figures he gets more views when Republicans are in the minority rather than leading.

    Who knows, but it’s almost getting so where I prefer not to go there anymore. I can almost get the same content on bloomberg, while getting good financial reporting.

    If he loses Conservatives, what does he have?

  206. Phil says:

    215

    I’m glad someone else noticed that. I thought it might just be me. I don’t go over there as much for the same reason as you.

  207. Hugh says:

    215. Agreed. I hardly go there anymore. He gives both sides but likes to be provocative. At some point they want to be loved by the mainstream. In the end you have to pick a side. It’s all become too divided. What’s sad is that outside of news you could just entertain but now they too want to be pc. Their boards should be fired.

  208. Tina says:

    Drudge is no different now than Fox News.

    Garbage in and out, other than the morning show.

  209. RB says:

    Not entirely buying that the GOP lost Douglas today and only 55 GOP voters voted out of about 1000 cast. The indy numbers seem too high…wonder if SOS made an error

  210. Mr.Vito says:

    Kinda seems like the indy and GOP numbers are reversed, huh?

  211. VictrC says:

    Phil, Hugh and Tina…. Im also glad its not me. It’s as if as soon as things started trending toward the R’s and it looks like there was a chance to hold the House and definitely the Senate his coverage of the news changed completely.

    He has bogus articles up there (in the past ten days) about Senate seats being in play that are not even close (Mississippi). He’s been pushing the blue wave meme completely.

    I don’t understand it. It’s not as if Liberals are going to all of a sudden love Drudge and go there, and there aren’t enough Pauliac supporters anymore to keep up his numbers. Wonder what is going on.

  212. Mr.Vito says:

    Drudge heavily pushed the Anti-Kavanaugh and Russian collusion stories, too, so it hasn’t just started.

  213. VictrC says:

    BTW. What is the over/under on the time the networks start bringing out the “Russian influence” meme coming out on election night if it appears the Republicans will retain the House, or it will be close.

    Heck, even when it becomes apparent that they make gains in the Senate.

    I say by 9:30 CST

  214. michael corleone says:

    #219 – Agreed those Indie numbers are probably the GOP numbers and vice versa.

  215. Scooterboy says:

    Looks like Ralston is questioning those Douglas numbers also.

  216. DW says:

    PA_10 – Susquehenna

    Scott (D) 46%
    Perry (R) 49%

  217. Mr.Vito says:

    Yup… NVSOS fixed them.

  218. Phil says:

    Anyone have a link to the Nevada county numbers for today.

  219. DW says:

    ouch–a bad one:

    UT_04 – Dixie strategies

    McAdams 50%
    Love 43%

    936 likely voters

  220. Mr.Vito says:

    The Dem numbers were in the wrong column, too.

    whoops.

  221. sane_voter says:

    Definite error for Douglas. They could have transposed “Other” and Rep numbers for Monday. Week 1 had only 876 “other” voters out of 5763 total.

    Week 1

    Dem 1448
    Rep 3439
    Other 876

    Week 2

    Dem 311
    Rep 398
    Other 723

  222. lisab says:

    drudge has been a long time critic of trump’s “fake news” meme

    partly because he fears he would be a target under a democrat regime

  223. michael corleone says:

    Looks like week 1 numbers were updated as well. GOP pulled a few votes off the deficit – 4331 for the week.

  224. VictrC says:

    DW

    That poll that found Love trailing in UT-04 also only has Romney with 52% of the vote and only leading by 14% (52-38). Every other poll this cycle has him up between 26%-38%.

    Does anyone at all think Romney will pull in less than 60% and only win by low double digits.

    Garbage poll.

  225. VictrC says:

    DW

    That poll that found Love trailing in UT-04 also only has Romney with 52% of the vote and only leading by 14% (52-38). Every other poll this cycle has him up between 26%-38%.

    Does anyone at all think Romney will pull in less than 60% and only win by low double digits.

    Garbage poll.

  226. Mr.Vito says:

    “… has Romney with 52% of the vote and only leading by 14%…”

    Statewide? or just in UT-04?

  227. lisab says:

    a question for all

    are you more or less confident about this election than 2012?

  228. Mr.Vito says:

    Utah4 polling has had some problems in recent history…

    Mason-Dixon had Love up double digits the year she lost, and Matheson was supposed to win by double digits when he narrowly beat Philpot.

  229. Phil says:

    I’m definitely less confident, Lisa. Mostly because I was delusional about Romney’s chances in 2012. I thought he was going to win.

  230. MikeKS says:

    GOP will be at 56 in Senate, maybe 57.

  231. lisab says:

    actually i thought romney would win too. i remember i was driving home and heard on the radio that romney was behind in indiana. i knew it was over. my enthusiasm for romeny was because he was my governor.

  232. Wes says:

    I received a letter from Dan Macready asking me to vote for him. I was touched to know a former Marine sharing the surname of one of the characters from one of my favorite short stories (Who Goes There?) and movies (The Thing) wants my vote.

    Unfortunately for him, while the US House is less important than the Senate currently because of judges, the House is still important. Ergo, I will be voting for the man for whom my other half has been canvassing votes—Mark Harris—although I am noteworthily less conservative than Harris.

  233. VictrC says:

    I believe that was statewide, not just the District on the Romney poll.

  234. VictrC says:

    I stand corrected. It was only for UT-04 district, not statewide.

  235. Wes says:

    I always knew Romney would lose narrowly and said so on here. He wasn’t good enough at retail politics and self-hype to win.

    That said, in losing, Romney sowed the seeds for the rural-exurban-White coalition that enabled Republicans to win in 2014 and Trump to win in 2016.

  236. michael corleone says:

    Heh NV SOS website just updated again adding an extra net 200 votes plus to the Douglas GOP advantage.

  237. Mr.Vito says:

    My wife asked on the way to the booth whether Obama could really win, and I got really somber and said yes, definitely.

    She looked surprised.

  238. lisab says:

    I always knew Romney would lose narrowly and said so on here.
    ——————————

    i am a massachusetts girl 🙂

    i let my hopes get the better of my reason

    red sox won btw

  239. Mr.Vito says:

    D+2407 in Clark today.

  240. Phil says:

    Where are you getting those numbers?

  241. Cash Cow TM says:

    “CHARLESTON, W.Va. — A national anti-abortion organization is putting $500,000 toward its efforts to support a proposed amendment to the state constitution and its campaign against U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., in this year’s Senate contest.

    Susan B. Anthony List announced the funding Monday outside of Manchin’s campaign headquarters in Charleston.

    Amendment One would add the following to the state’s governing document: “Nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion.”

    The amendment would, in turn, overturn a 1993 West Virginia Supreme Court ruling,…”

  242. michael corleone says:

    Vito those Clark numbers are much more manageable. We may win the day when the cows come home.

  243. Cash Cow TM says:

    I dunno what will be the total spent on the U.S. senate race in WV[[I have heard $50MM).

    So that group sending $500,000 is a small amount by comparison.

  244. Mr.Vito says:

    252 We’ll have to see if they dump any absentees, too.

  245. wheelz91 says:

    These seem pretty good for GOP. Have a lead in every race but close.

    Change Research Polls:
    IA-4:
    J.D. Scholten (D) 44
    Steve King (R) 45

    IN-09:
    Trey Hollingsworth (R) 52
    Liz Watson (D) 45

    KS-02:
    Paul Davis (D) 44
    Steve Watkins (R) 45

    WI-06:
    Glenn Grothman (R) 50
    Dan Kohl (D) 48

    MI-01:
    Jack Bergman (R) 54
    Matthew Morgan (D) 42

    IN-05:
    Susan Brooks (R) 50
    Dee Thornton (D) 44

    MI-06:
    Fred Upton (R) 46
    Matt Longjohn (D) 43

    OH-02:
    Brad Wenstrup (R) 52
    Jill Schiller (D) 39

    IL-16:
    Adam Kinzinger (R) 55
    Sara Dady (D) 41

    FL-18:
    Brian Mast (R) 53
    Lauren Baer (D) 44

    NY-01:
    Perry Gershon (D) 37
    Lee Zeldin (R) 52

    CO-03:
    Scott Tipton (R) 53
    Diane Mitsch (D) 38

    https://twitter.com/ChangePolls

  246. Cash Cow TM says:

    COWS COME HOME?

    I AM home…
    (Been working on that jetliner crash in Indonesia. Terrible. The most killed since the last jetliner crash.)

  247. Mr.Vito says:

    Change Research is a Dem Activist outfit, but I don’t know about their polls.

  248. wheelz91 says:

    Mr. Vito then these should be good results for the GOP. If they can’t find a dem lead in any of them.

  249. Mr.Vito says:

    Could be. Pretty sure they are not campaign internals. though.

  250. lisab says:

    the mayo clinic is supporting the gop in minnesota

  251. lisab says:

    the mayo clinic is the biggest employer in minnesota

  252. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    234. “That poll that found Love trailing in UT-04 also only has Romney with 52% of the vote and only leading by 14% (52-38). Every other poll this cycle has him up between 26%-38%.
    Does anyone at all think Romney will pull in less than 60% and only win by low double digits. Garbage poll.”

    Exactly. Claiming Romney at 52% shows the poll is way off. The major polls in Utah have shown Romney at about 60%. The latest U. of U. poll has it 59% Romney 23% Wilson and 19% Other. Romney is actually losing conservative votes to more conservative candidates from minor parties. It might be a message to Romney that he cannot go too far off the Trump Reservation.

    The KUTV/Dixie poll claimed that Love was only getting 68% of the Republican vote. There are all sorts of attacks on its methodology in the Utah press. The two recent polls by the NYT and SLC Tribune show the race is a tie. I believe Love will win, but the district was represented by a Democrat for a long time before she was elected.

  253. ReadyFirst says:

    a question for all
    are you more or less confident about this election than 2012?
    _____________

    I’m more confident now. I thought Romney blew it after the second debate (I think that was the one Candy Crowley beat him). Romney would have been light years better than Obama.

  254. ReadyFirst says:

    Don’t know if it was mentioned here before, but I found it very interesting that in the recent CBS/YouGov poll, Independents were breaking 51-38 Rep-Dem for both Scott and Desantis. Scott also had very high hurricane approval numbers.
    pgs. 17 & 22
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6m3FrMzNqO5NFJIdkRic2w0NGI1NHRESjFZTFpnSjhaR0Fr/view?fbclid=IwAR0qJPq8oeEEnLTqYI0-lId8BbdaWFvIBKddxXws7g41FmJIhQHNIvo2-Cc

  255. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Nevada, the Democrat ballot lead went from 11,239 on Sunday to 12,425 yesterday and will shrink even further when Elko and other “Cow” Counties report.
    All in all, a decent day for the GOP.

  256. Redmen4ever says:

    UT04 is R+13 (the other three Utah districts are even more Republican), plus Mia Love is a two-term incumbent. Her opponent has out-spent her approx. 2 to 1 ($4.6 m. to $2.6 m.). Not many of our candidates, on their own, can raise that kind of money.

    The district has been frequently polled. I had the district Probable R through the week of Oct. 9th. I downgraded the district to Lean R during the week of Oct. 16th. With the Dixie Strategy poll, I flipped the district to lean D.

    The Republicans need to show Love some love during this last week, in terms of appearances, advertising and GOTV.

  257. jaichind says:

    CT Gov Dem lead 47-43 for Quinnipiac
    https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2584

    NBC/Marist for AZ senate
    DEM 47 GOP 44 Green 6

  258. Skippy says:

    University Northern Florida Poll

    https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/2018FL2Fall.aspx

    Gillium +6 (49-43)
    Nelson +1 (47-46)

    Another poll which shows Non-Affiliated Voters overwhelming supporting the Democratic candidate.

    19% of the voters in Florida is projected to be Non-Affiliated.

    So yes, Republican turnout vs Democratic turnout has been good thus far in early voting in Florida and in other states. But the fear is Democrats are dominating with the INDY vote.

    I think we have enough evidence to realistically have this fear.

  259. ReadyFirst says:

    Or not Skippy, if you believe the Indy numbers in my #264 above. Either way, I think Scott should be ok as he seems to have very high numbers for handling the hurricane. Desantis Could go either way.

  260. EML says:

    Republicans back to winning the day in Florida. Won both absentee and in person voting. Overall lead increases from +55K to +60K. Dem in person lead down to 4K. Republican Sarasota and Gulf counties the only ones that haven’t updated today.

  261. ReadyFirst says:

    Looks like the FL EV and absentee improved a bit. Closed the gap on EV to about 4000. 520,793-524,540.

  262. Tina says:

    Trump filed a motion with the court and now submit a claim for $341,559.50 for legal costs incurred plus other penalties and sanctions against Horseface, who is represent by Porn Lawyah.

    Trumps main attorney’s rate is over $800 an hour.

  263. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Updated as of Tuesday morning:

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 42.66%
    Democrats 39.09%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +64,452

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 42.09%
    Democrats 40.11%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +60,705

  264. Todd McCain says:

    ND is gone and I like our trajectory in MO and IN; the way Claire and Donnelly are acting right now says it all….I like the early numbers for the GOP in AZ. I am not sold on Nevada; Dems are still racking up 2000-3000 votes a day in Clark.

  265. EML says:

    Liberty County, FL has 3033 registered Democrats (69.4%) vs 941 registered Republicans (21.5%). Trump won by 57 points.

  266. Todd McCain says:

    I had a feeling the GOP was going to make inroads in Florida yesterday; I feel it is going to happen during the rest of the week as well; then Saturday win for the Dems.

  267. Tina says:

    Trump plans to sign executive order ending birthright citizenship: Axios | Fox News
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-he-plans-to-sign-executive-order-ending-birthright-citizenship

    Wil the Hi judge halt this order, or the 9th Circus Court?

  268. MichiganGuy says:

    Ohio Governor:
    .
    DeWine 39.4%
    Cordray 38.8%
    Undecided 15.8%.
    .
    Ohio Senate:
    .
    Brown 51.2
    Renacci 31.7%
    .
    Baldwin Wallace University Poll

    https://articles.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2018/10/polling_shows_ohios_governors.amp?__twitter_impression=true

  269. Skippy says:

    2016 Florida: 7 days out from Election Day.

    VBM = Republicans +72,082
    EV-In Person = Democrats +56,456
    VBM + EV-In Person = Republicans +15,926

    2018 Florida: 7 days out from Election Day.
    VBM = Republicans +64,452
    EV-In Person = Democrats +3,747
    VBM + EV-In Person = Republicans +60,705

  270. RB says:

    While Sinema could win AZ..

    Didn’t Marist have Orman up 10, Cotton up 2, McConell in a dead heat, and Tillis down about 4 this point in 2014…

    That said 2018 is not 2014

  271. Wes says:

    Marist has the AZ party ID as 37R-32D-33I. The early voting ID is 44R-33D. Dems would have to have a killer Election Day to achieve the Marist assumption.

  272. Hugh says:

    269. I don’t want to be Polaris but again that poll is grossly overpolling the under 39 group and underpolling the over 65 group currently more than half of the total voters. This poll has it at 35%.

  273. Mr.Vito says:

    Unless people are identifying differently than their registration…

  274. dblaikie says:

    For quite awhile I was convinced. Even though I don’t trust polls I thought that in West Virginia they were wide enough to safely say Manchin was going to win. But then a couple days ago I noticed a poll coming out saying his opponent was plus 2. But then another one came out saying Manchin was plus 16. Talk about poll confusion!

    But just this morning as I was enjoying a cup of coffee with my lovely wife I hear on Fox and Friends that our old friend Chucky S. is going to pour 700000 dollars into West Virginia. Now if this race wasn’t close, despite all the positive polls for Manchin (that plus 2 would be considered an outlier by the pundits) do you think the loud mouth Minority Leader would pour in money.

    Conclusion: West Virginia polls have been bogus. The accurate polls (closely guarded campaign internals) are showing a very close race. Chucky’s $700000 in the West Virginia market (very small) confims it.

    Now what should that tell you about alot of these polls? Just asking.

  275. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #282- Wes
    The Marist Arizona Poll has Sinema(D) +3 among those who have already voted. Albeit, with about 45% of the total votes already cast, the GOP is +10-11 with early voting according to the Arizona SOS.Lastly, the Marist Poll has Sinma at a 54/32 advantage among Independents.

  276. HHR says:

    278 Executive Orders used to be bad under Obama. Now they are good under Trump. Glad we straightened that out.

  277. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, in actual ballots GOP is ahead 105,000; I cannot see how Sinema makes that up at this point. It actually should get even larger because Maricopa county didn’t report the results from the weekend yet.

  278. EML says:

    Pollsters and the media are convinced that registered Republicans are more fired up to go out and vote against Trump than registered Democrats are.

  279. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #266- Redmen
    In the UT CD-4 poll, the pollster has Romney winning the district by only 17 pts.
    Also, the poll claims that Love(R) is losing 23% of the GOP vote and losing Independents by 86/7.
    Believable?

  280. MichiganGuy says:

    HHR sounds like Bitterlaw. hmmmmmmm

  281. Bitterlaw says:

    https://nypost.com/2018/10/30/inmate-cracks-joke-in-last-words-before-execution/

    Not the best joke. The most interesting part of the story is that the dirtbag who was executed has a brother who was also executed. That is a messed up family. If there were any other children, watch them.

  282. dblaikie says:

    In checking out the early vote in Nevada I can’t help but note that all the large cow counties have not been counted — Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Elko and Nye. When those votes come in it will end up being another good day for the GOP.

    I can’t help but say again, the only “wall” in the early voting is the difference between the two parties at the end of the EV period.

  283. Mr.Vito says:

    So…

    I went through the file for Maine and separated Maine 2.

    Looks like the GOP is up 1-2%, but the Dems are up more 4-5% and independents are down 6 percent.

    Could be a problematic pattern if it holds elsewhere in similar places.

  284. dblaikie says:

    Of course you knew it was going to happen. The GOP is rocking the early vote. The media is desperate to preserve their narrative! The answer produce a bunch of polls that the say the Independents are voting in large number for the Dems. This whole election cycle is getting surreal. It’s funny, but you can’t make this stuff up.

  285. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida
    .
    Governor:
    Gillum 49%
    DeSantis 43%
    Undecided 8%
    .
    Senate:
    .
    Nelson 47%
    Scott 46%
    Undecided 7%
    .
    UNF Poll
    http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/2018FL2Fall.aspx

  286. mnw says:

    Phil

    I think Hawley will win, for two reasons: 1) all the movement in the polls has been in Hawley’s direction for about a month; & 2) the fact that the Remington polls show Hawley winning while the GOP nominee forMO State Auditor is getting wiped out. I think that’s reassuring. Polls like that are NOT GOP shills, altho some at RRH discount Remington as a “GOP pollster.”

    BL

    That’s just bullzh*t about me “believing rdel because I want to believe.” You don’t know me, but I’ve never been accused of being Little Mary Sunshine. “Gloomy & pessimistic” are the first descriptors that my colleagues noted.

  287. dblaikie says:

    Excuse me, Douglas County has their vote recorded.

  288. MichiganGuy says:

    CCC

  289. Hugh says:

    Median age of AZ early voters is 64. It’s all you need to know

  290. Hugh says:

    Miguy see post 283. That poll is pure fantasy.

  291. MichiganGuy says:

    Hugh, Bitter told us we are not allowed to question any polls.

  292. Bitterlaw says:

    Zzzzxxxx. I never said to not question polls. I pointed out that it seems that only polls where the Democrat leads are questioned.

  293. mnw says:

    I can easily believe people are tired of Mia Love. I’ve read that she’s “low energy,” & that she’s has never done much retail politicking in her district. This is like the third or fourth time she’s been in danger of losing to a DEM.

  294. Barrett says:

    Stupid question, but how can the Democrats claim a “blue wave” when they aren’t even going to pickup the senate?

    The last time I can remember a true “Blue Wave” was back in 2006. They essentially ran the table on the senate, and made massive gains in the house.

    This isn’t a blue wave. Even if they end up with 225-230 seats, that’s between 51.7% and 52.8% of the house. Obama had a better margin than that in 2008.

  295. Skippy says:

    MNW,

    Mia Love’s district is pretty much a toss up in any election cycle. Dems own the seat for multiple cycles before Mia Love won it for the Republicans. So I don’t think it’s fair to totally blame Love’s candidacy.

  296. RB says:

    As a side note if either side wins the house by less than 3 seats…it will be nearly impossible to pass anything(unless they compromise-which i doubt)…and every retirement, death, indictment causing a special election will be a donnybrook

    With that small of a majority the greatest benefit for getting the majority is the gavels

  297. DW says:

    Woke up to see Gravis has Tester up only 3 in MT.

  298. DW says:

    CA_50 – SUSA

    Campa-Najjar (D) 45%
    Hunter (R) 48%

  299. mnw says:

    DW 309

    With Tester at 48%.

  300. DW says:

    311 – yes, and Gravis hasn’t exactly been lean R in their polling this cycle. Close race. They have the house race tied.

  301. Todd McCain says:

    Tester has had a small lead, but its been fairly consistent; I see Trump is going back to Montana this week.

  302. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow has been unable to locate the downed Indonesian jetliner.

    My snorkel apparatus is inadequate.

  303. jaichind says:

    @308 RB. I agree with you. I actually prefer that the Dems win the House narrowly since even if the GOP wins the house it can only be narrowly.

  304. Phil says:

    Right now I would take a split of Arizona and Nevada. We will hold Tennessee and Texas and gain ND. WV, Montana, probably are out of reach. If we can gain Mo and Indiana, that would give us +2 in the Senate. I still haven’t completely given up on Rick Scott. We still have a chance there.

    Plus 2 is where I think we end up. Plus 3 would be huge simply because it takes Collins and Murkowski off the board as kingmakers but it would mean sweeping Arizona and Florida.

  305. MichiganGuy says:

    Phil, how is Montana out of reach? Gravis has Tester at 48% and Rosendale at 45% with the Undecided more likely to vote for Rosendale 16% – 9%

  306. mnw says:

    RAS today

    Trump JA = 48/51

  307. DW says:

    Predictably, someone at RRH is now saying the problem is the early registered Republican voters are voting D in AZ.

    So registered Republicans are MORE eager to vote Democrat than Democrats.

  308. Todd McCain says:

    Wow, in that Gravis poll Rosendale is only getting 70% of Republicans and losing 21% to Tester; that needs to be fixed in the next week.

  309. Scooterboy says:

    Schweikart suggesting that Repubs might end early voting with an actual lead in Florida. I don’t think that’s ever happened before. How do they lose these Florida races if that’s the case?

  310. Ron N says:

    I think we get 55/56 Sen and hold 221 in house. Two reason polls us normally wrong by 5 pts. I do not see the base of dems showing up under 40 votes will not be there in races that matter.

  311. mnw says:

    Schweikart (hearts) FL #s.

  312. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia on the midterm elections and why he is expecting to see a “red wave” in Florida.
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_2YKxGDYNo

  313. Tina says:

    Yes, I will buy that Rs are voting for Enema.

    Can I also buy the GG Bridge?

  314. dblaikie says:

    “Montana out of reach” “Haven’t completely given up on Scot” Frankly, even if you live and die by the polls your post makes no sense. Rosendale and Tester are in a dead heat with the margin of error. And most of these questionable polls (yes Bitter that includes the ones with a GOP lead) have the race as a dead heat. And I don’t even want to consider your thinking about a Arizona, because even for folks who take these polls as gospel truth (until the next poll) have Heller with a lead. Sorry Phil, but I find your statements rather foolish. But that is okay because I have been guilty of being foolish myself.

  315. Wes says:

    Skippy, UT-4 only existed for two years before Mia Love won it. Mathewson beat her by about 700 votes in 2012. Love then won it in 2014. You may be confusing it with UT-3, which Matheson represented from 2001 to 2013 before moving to the newly created UT-4 after redistricting.

  316. Barrett says:

    Based on what I’m looking at in the polls, I’m going to say that Republicans get 53 or 54 in the Senate.

    The house of course, isn’t so simple. I would say 219 for Reps, 216 for Dems.

  317. dblaikie says:

    Ron N welcome to my limb. There are alot of posters who consider us crazy.

  318. Todd McCain says:

    I love Scott’s chances; but we cannot discount the fact that DeSantis has not lead one poll. I like the Florida numbers.

  319. DW says:

    330 – WCTV-TV poll of 800 Likely FL voters found DeSantis up 48/45

  320. Tina says:

    au ng
    @athein1
    19m
    NV EV day 10 update 1130pm 10/29 — Some rural data (10 counties) yet to report for day 10. Dem lead now at a little over 12k but I expect it to come down under 12k after all rural data is in. It would be within 500 of Day 9’s lead of 11.2k. The lead is on pace to max at 15k pic.twitter.com/OMEHYrzzV0
    View photo ·

  321. Hugh says:

    The problem with the polls is they are basing their models on an electorate that reflected the voters and a narrative set a year ago. They refuse to adjust either because they want to help us lose. Eventually no one including the other side will believe them

  322. DW says:

    IPSOS – Generic Ballot

    Democrat 47%
    Republican 43%

    Prior poll was D+7

  323. mnw says:

    Schweikart is not showing the same enthusiasm for NC EV as he does for FL EV, but AA vote is down in NC.

    Not hard to tell whether Larry is pumped about something– or not.

  324. Phil says:

    Still trying to think why one fifth of Montana Republicans would be voting for Tester. Dumber than West Virginians.

  325. Todd McCain says:

    GOP just caught up by another 700 votes in the in person in Florida; down only 3000 now.

  326. Tina says:

    Mnw, Wes:

    On nc, I thought ev was down 4% for Ds (5% for AAs).
    Ra doing about same as 2014?

    Not sure where I read that though.

  327. Diamond Jim says:

    Schweikart predicted Romney would win Ohio based on EV.

  328. Todd McCain says:

    Rounded GOP up about 62,000

  329. Tina says:

    Take Schweikart as a read.

    Got close to trumps final ev count in 2016.

    Call him anti-Rottie.

  330. Skippy says:

    Wes, #327

    Thanks. My bad.

  331. dblaikie says:

    Phil, once again why do you buy into a poll like that? You are right, 20 percent of Republicans voting for Tester is plain stupid. Trump won Montana by 20 points! Do you see that many voters who voted for Trump turning around and voting for Tester? In other words this poll has problems.

  332. Todd McCain says:

    GOP probably retakes the in person EV lead in Florida tomorrow.

  333. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    This year’s polling is very inconsistent. In KS CD-3, the NYT/ Siena Poll has Republican candidate Watkins behind by 5 pts. although the poll is incomplete.
    Today, Emerson released a KS poll which showed Watkins +7.

    Also, in June, the NBC/Marist Poll of the AZ Senate race showed Sinema(D) +11.

  334. Phil says:

    The fact that Marist had McSally down 11 at one time does offer hope that their latest poll is off.

  335. Skippy says:

    Todd McCain,

    I believe Democrats will have about a 10,000 vote lead in In-Person voting by Thursday morning in Florida.

    It’s not a good number for Democrats but the their lead will start to grow by Thursday. Younger voters (<40) who want to vote early now will dominate early voting.

  336. mnw says:

    dbl

    Could be a Manchin-like thing in MT– where a lot of GOP voters just prefer Tester, just as a lot of WV voters prefer Manchin.

    Trump’s margin in WV isn’t helping Morrissey.

    I don’t know, but DEMs have been quite competitive in MT historically.

  337. Phil says:

    Look for some polling outfit over the coming days (maybe Marist)to show Beto closing close to Cruz in Texas. Just know it will be crap. In truth, he’s gotten as close as he is going to get to Cruz. It will be part of the MSM efforts to wave the pompoms for Democrats.

  338. Hugh says:

    350. On what basis??

  339. Redmen4ever says:

    UT04 – is Romney registering 52 in UT04 consistent with him registering 59 statewide? UT04 if R-13 and the state R-20. It is entirely reasonable for Romney to do 7 points less in UT04 than he is doing statewide.

    Having said this, the district is R-13. With some focus, we should be able to win.

  340. ReadyFirst says:

    Reps close EV in FL another 1000 at the 10:15 update. 522,886R-525,935D. Only a 3,000 vote gap and still up 65k in absentee.

  341. Hugh says:

    Tester is not manchin. He no longer even tried to look like a moderate. I think he loses.

  342. DW says:

    Suffolk University/USA TODAY

    FLORIDA

    Nelson 45
    Scott 43

    Gillum 45
    DeSantis 44

  343. mnw says:

    Hugh 356

    Some truth to that. Smart move would’ve been YES on Kav.

  344. Todd McCain says:

    https://www.donaldjtrump.com/rallies/

    Everywhere he is going the last week is finalized.

  345. phoenixrisen says:

    Universitiy pollsters and their liberal bent are getting a little desperate with suggestions that GOP voters are crossing over to vote Democrat. They are smoking some good stuff if they think that is going to happen. I have to wonder if they are seeing these EV numbers with the GOP crushing it and panicking. This doesn’t look good at all for the Democrats seeing the margins.

  346. DW says:

    Trende at RCP is playing along with the new excuse:

    “If a large number of upper-middle-class whites who are registered Republicans flock to the polls to vote Democrat this time – the standard “suburban wave” narrative – we would see a surge in Republican participation that does not result in a surge in Republican vote share.”

    I am sorry, but Registered Republicans who are disgruntled will stay home or at best vote on election day–not be so angry at the Republican candidate that they push Dems out of the way to beat them in voting early for the D.

  347. Todd McCain says:

    I agree.

  348. phoenixrisen says:

    #361 — DW, by observation it looks like the lib media and biased political punditry are entering the first stage of grief which is denial.

  349. DW says:

    According to the wise-men at RRH, IA_04’s King (R) has not been campaigning or running any ads, just allowing the Dem challenger to have the floor.

    In response to the Change Research poll showing a tight race, someone has elbowed King awake enough to go ahead and release an internal poll:

    Scholten (D) 34%
    King (R) 52%

    I hope he has a good internal pollster. But lazy candidates are so frustrating.

  350. DW says:

    OH_07 – Change Research (this is different from the large batch from this morning, as this one is a D-Internal)

    Harbaugh (D) 43%
    Gibbs (R) 49%

  351. DW says:

    RRH has nothing to say apparently by the IPSOS generic ballot poll that went from D+7 to D+4.

    NOW is the time to start looking for a late break in momentum as undecided voters decide. If we can get a few more generic ballot polls showing direction toward the GOP it could signal this late shift.

    I would love to have another Selzer Generic ballot poll right now.

  352. DW says:

    Ha–here is a fun example of the battle of released campaign internals:

    KS_01

    Dem:

    42/38, 600 LV

    GOP:

    60/26, 1,432 LV

  353. Phil says:

    I presently put the over and under at 30 in the House.

    Not buying Silver’s 40 seat loss any more than I buy the 15-20 seat scenario.

    Senate? Think we net a seat – easily could get two.

  354. DW says:

    368 – I am still about five or six days from my final prediction. Combing through data looking for tells that signal the shift of late deciding voters. Trying to deduce what is on their minds.

    1) If they are undecided, it probably means they aren’t part of the “I hate trump so much I cheered for the guy who shot up the GOP baseball practice” crowd.

    2) They might be the types that want divided government.

    3) They might be inclined to vote D, but keep seeing the image of Pelosi holding the gavel, and they keep thinking about how well their 401k funds are doing right now.

    4) Could be some that still don’t know what to make of the Kavanaugh hearings.

    5) Could be some that really aren’t going to vote because there is nothing compelling them to rock the boat, even though they feel pressure to vote, so they say they are undecided.

    All kinds of things going on, but once I get the feel for the late breakers, then I will finish my forecast for all house seats.

  355. NYCmike says:

    “368 – I am still about five or six days from my final prediction. ”

    -About 7 days from now, at like 8PM or so, I will give my final prediction……once Lord Asshat has called in from Pogo Loco.

  356. DW says:

    Charlie Cook just moved OH_01 from Tossup to Lean R.

    How nice of him, considering Siena polled it twice in a row and found exact same results twice in a row, R+9.

  357. DW says:

    Cook made up for it by moving OH_12 from Lean R to Tossup even though there was no new data on the seat.

    He also still won’t budge on WA_08, calling it a tossup even though Elway says Rossi (R) is up 10 points there.

  358. DW says:

    Cook also moved AR_02 from Lean R to Likely R

  359. DW says:

    And in another stroke of brilliance, Cook still has NY_24 a Lean R, same as NY_27 even though Siena has NY_24 a blowout against a weak D candidate, and scandalized Collins in NY_27 is barely holding on.

  360. jason says:

    LOL..

    “Sen. Claire McCaskill says she’s 100 percent behind President Trump on stopping the migrant caravan”

    Desperate much?

  361. jason says:

    I predict Lord Asshat will be wrong again.

  362. mnw says:

    375

    She must be getting very bad vibes about that issue, because in 12 yrs she’s never met an illegal she didn’t like.

  363. lisab says:

    I presently put the over and under at 30 in the House.
    —————–

    good guess. the average loss is 31

  364. Robbie says:

    Trumpers wipe the drool from their mouths and yell “but muh caravan”.

    Ryan Costello
    @RyanCostello

    We all know challenges of suburban R’s. The bloc of competitive R held districts less impacted by POTUS thus far are those w high # of immigrants. So now POTUS, out of nowhere, brings birthright citizenship up. Besides being basic tenet of America, it’s political malpractice.

  365. Robbie says:

    So how are all of the Tea Party constitutionalists who love the Constitution and hated Obama for using executive orders going to defend Trump’s moronic view he can change the Constitution’s 14th Amendment with his own executive order?

  366. Todd McCain says:

    Another poll out this morning showing Braun ahead 3; 49-46

  367. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 12:30 pm
    “368 – I am still about five or six days from my final prediction. ”
    -About 7 days from now, at like 8PM or so, I will give my final prediction……once Lord Asshat has called in from Pogo Loco.

    – I remember in August when NYCmike said he felt very good about Republican chances this year because I was pessimistic about Republican chances/

    How’s that working out for you, NYCmike? How’s your boy Chris McDaniel doing?

  368. SoHope says:

    There is not way around birthright citizenship without amending the constitution – end of story

  369. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    Why are you such a hate-filled person?

    The Executive Order, in my opinion, is wrong. Simple as that.

    BUT, as a political tool that the President can use, he can highlight the policy, and then push for a legislative fix. It is a part of legislation that has already been submitted by a couple of Senators.

    Personally, I don’t know if the timing is right or not, but considering Trump’s record, and the record of the people you link to, I’ll stick with Trump for now, and simply consider it another data point to think about, as opposed to writing such un-Catholic thoughts like “wipe the drool from their mouths”.

  370. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 30, 2018 at 12:00 pm
    I presently put the over and under at 30 in the House.
    Not buying Silver’s 40 seat loss any more than I buy the 15-20 seat scenario.
    Senate? Think we net a seat – easily could get two.

    – More than a year ago, I suggested a 40 seat loss was possible. After the Kavanaugh hearings, I thought a 30 seat loss was a good guess since the episode clearly energized Republicans.

    Right now, I think there’s evidence the Kavanaugh bump has worn off, at least in the House races. I think the losses in the House are more likely to above 30 and than below 30.

  371. NYCmike says:

    “How’s that working out for you, NYCmike? How’s your boy Chris McDaniel doing?”

    -I am still confident. I predict a 3-5 seat pickup in Senate, and a very closely divided House, which may go either way, as history has shown us.

    As for McDaniel, I did not realize he was my “boy”.

    Are you still into that sort of “play”?

  372. Scooterboy says:

    West Virginia EV Republicans ahead 4.5%. Not sure how WV EV historically goes, but appears to be tracking similar to other states.

  373. jason says:

    For the record, I oppose denying the birthright citizenship. I think people who are born here are US citizens.

    The solution is to secure our borders, not deny birthright citizenship.

  374. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 1:04 pm
    Robbie,
    Why are you such a hate-filled person?
    The Executive Order, in my opinion, is wrong. Simple as that.
    BUT, as a political tool that the President can use, he can highlight the policy, and then push for a legislative fix. It is a part of legislation that has already been submitted by a couple of Senators.
    Personally, I don’t know if the timing is right or not, but considering Trump’s record, and the record of the people you link to, I’ll stick with Trump for now, and simply consider it another data point to think about, as opposed to writing such un-Catholic thoughts like “wipe the drool from their mouths”.

    – This is laughable. So if it’s ok for Trump to highlight an issue with a clearly unconstitutional executive order, then I’m sure you felt the same way with Obama, right?

    Take off the red hat. It’s on too tight. You’re not going to amend the constitution, you’re not going to get the wall, and you’re not getting the RAISE Act. But you are going to get Speaker Pelosi precisely because of Trump.

  375. Todd McCain says:

    This firm Cygnal, that I never heard of has MO and IN:

    GOP leads by 3 in both, 49-46.

  376. SoHope says:

    Id guess a loss of 25 is the over/under. I hope we hold but we shall see.

  377. Robbie says:

    SoHope says:
    October 30, 2018 at 1:11 pm
    Id guess a loss of 25 is the over/under. I hope we hold but we shall see.

    – It’s the tale of two chambers. You can have Republicans lose up to 40 House seats and gain 1-3 Senate seats in the same year. The only year that comes close to an odd split like that is 1982. Republicans are very lucky they have this class of Senate seats up this year and not the group that was up in 2016.

  378. Robbie says:

    It’s undeniable the best period Republicans had, mid-September to mid-October, coincided with all factions of the party rallying around Kavanaugh and Trump not being nearly as prominent in the news. In fact, the polling average shows Trump’s approval rises during periods when he’s out of the news and goes down when he dominates the coverage.

  379. Florida Guy says:

    390. This firm Cygnal, that I never heard of has MO and IN: GOP leads by 3 in both, 49-46.

    ———-

    CYGNAL is an awesome polling firm in Alabama.

    Good polls.

  380. DW says:

    Back on Oct 14, the Salazar (R) campaign released their internal of FL_27 showing a R+9 point lead. It has taken a while, but the Shalala campaign finally was able to engineer their response, just releasing their internal showing D+10.

    The length of time it took them to respond means they didn’t have a poll favorable to them two weeks ago.

    I am inclined to stick with Mason-Dixon in saying this is a razor close race with a slight tilt to Salazar.

  381. Robbie says:

    Ha! Jack Posobiec promised a story that would hurt Robert Mueller today, but it turns out the FBI is investigating a GOP consultant and his attempt to pay women to claim Robert Mueller has sexually assaulted them. Sad.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/special-counsel-refers-scheme-targeting-mueller-to-fbi/574411/?utm_source=twb

  382. Todd McCain says:

    I wouldn’t listen to a thing Jack Posobiec says….

  383. Florida Guy says:

    Ha. Nor would I listen to anything Robbie says.

  384. Florida Guy says:

    Poor polling today from news. Now I wish the Kavanaugh thing had drawn out to Oct. 12 or so.

    Braun is surging. My GOP Hoosier sources tell me Donnelly underestimated the Trump referendum and is now going purely negative on Braun, similar to how Democrat Kernan went negative on Mitch Daniels in 2004. Pure negative ads as a last-minute gambit.

  385. CG says:

    I’ve been better at predicting races than Charlie Cook. Maybe one day I will get the respect I deserve…

  386. CG says:

    Whitey Bulger killed in prison.

    Trump will probably find a way to make “Killing Whitey” into a midterm base issue.

  387. Mr.Vito says:

    Almost everything in from yesterday in NV.

    Lead in EV+VBM is D+2.8%
    Dem Reg.Advantage is D+4.8%

    In 2016, the lead was 6.0% after Day 10.
    In 2012, the lead was 7.1% after Day 10.

  388. Tina says:

    We have a muh Russian story,

    Jebots are predictable and stupid.

  389. NYCmike says:

    ” So if it’s ok for Trump to highlight an issue with a clearly unconstitutional executive order, then I’m sure you felt the same way with Obama, right?”

    -Are you able to read?

    I stated, very simply, that using an Executive Order was wrong.

    BUT, do you deny, in this time and age, especially after the Obama years, that using an Executive Order is NOT a useful tool in highlighting an issue?

    And, I know you don’t want a wall, I know that you want Pelosi with the gavel, I know you don’t want a new, tougher immigration law on the books, which goes after chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits.

    You are all for the status quo, except with a Democratic House, so that they can go after the President.

  390. Mr.Vito says:

    Interesting stat from NV Week1.

    Heller won in 2012.

    EV+VBM 2018 Turnout for Week1 relative to 2012:
    Clark: 83.7%
    Washoe: 94.0%
    CowCountry: 94.0%

    So, looking closer at the Clark numbers:

    Clark Dems: 76.2%
    Clark GOP: 91.4%
    Clark Others: 90.2%

  391. RB says:

    At this time the worst case scenario for the Senate is GOP + 1
    That would be getting IN-ND-MO….but loosing NV and AZ

    I think we’ll do better…but even if this is the case the good news is that we’ll have 52 with Murkowski and Collins not enough to throw a wrench into something(tho Collins was awesome with Kavanaugh)

    After that than Sasse or Romney would be the goto to the press to stop a judge or something the GOP needed, but they seem more in line with the GOP than say Jeff Flake who literally changes his mind by the minute

    If we can get to 53+(NV AZ MT FL) than worries on hudges go away and the next cycle is probably going to be rougher for the GOP who will have a lot of seats up

    NJ-TX-TN are the dreams of both parties that will not happen

  392. Tina says:

    au ng
    @athein1
    15m
    NV EV update 9am 10/30 — Dem lead down to 11.9k after a few more rurals updated. Lyon and White Pine still to report which should bring bring this down to about 11.7k as I predicted earlier. Only 4 more days. I expect the Dem lead to stay under 15k, which will ensure a R win pic.twitter.com/YuBv0oZoVK
    View

    Not good numbers for the Jebots.

  393. Redmen4ever says:

    MO flips from toss-up to lean R.

    IN – I notice that Braun’s rise is coincident with the Libertarian’s gain. So, the narrative fits the movement. My running average still says toss-up, but based on late momentum, this is another pick-up.

    My other three toss-ups (again, based solely on my running averages) are AZ, FL and NV. In those states, the Early Vote says Republican.

    That brings us to MT and WV and possibly some secondary targets (MI, MN-sp, NJ, OH and WI). Trump has already been to three of the secondary targets, has scheduled a stop in OH, and wouldn’t help in NJ.

  394. Redmen4ever says:

    excuse me, I mean “coincident with the Libertarian’s fall.”

  395. CG says:

    If a Libertarian falls on a sidewalk, whom do they sue?

  396. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Arizona, the GOP increased its early ballot lead from yesterday from 103,685 to 110,156, or approximately 6,500 ballots.

  397. Bitterlaw says:

    The libs will suddenly love the conservative SCOTUS Justices when the strike down an EO on birthright citizenship.

    If that happens, Trump’s rants about Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will be epic. I do not see how any conservative could upheld an EO gutting the 14th Amendment.

  398. Tina says:

    Looks like muh Bomba has hurt the Drats in Az, nc, and Florida, based on r increases.

  399. Todd McCain says:

    Yeah, the percentage dropped to 10% even, but overall 110,000 votes is tough to crack.

  400. Tina says:

    Looks like a woman is accusing Fuhrer Mulehead of sexual harassment that happened in 2010. It will be revealed in 11/1.

  401. Tina says:

    And there is no way that Rs are crossing over to vote for Enema.

    The Is will break for enema, but not by a big amount,

    I do not need to see any “poll” from Az. It is Ovah.

    But bye, Enema.

  402. Phil says:

    Hold Nevada and win ND, Mo and Indiana and I would consider it a reasonably good night at Plus 2. Get one of Florida and Arizona and plus three would be a Very good night.

    I’d take it in a heartbeat.

  403. Todd McCain says:

    Win IN, MO, IN. Early vote pointing to victories in AZ and FL. Montana would be icing on the cake at that point. I am not sold on Nevada.

  404. Robbie says:

    It would be a blessing if Steve King lost. He’s scum.

    Steve Stivers
    @RepSteveStivers

    Congressman Steve King’s recent comments, actions, and retweets are completely inappropriate. We must stand up against white supremacy and hate in all forms, and I strongly condemn this behavior.

  405. Todd McCain says:

    ND.

  406. jason says:

    I am sure he is less scum and has more integrity than you do.

  407. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The 14th Amendment: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and the State wherein they reside.”

    Am not see Trump getting around this with an executive order. To bring this type of an issue up immediately prior to an election is a bad move by Trump.

  408. Robbie says:

    Florida Guy says:
    October 30, 2018 at 1:34 pm
    Ha. Nor would I listen to anything Robbie says.

    – Why? If you listened to me in October 2017 would you would have known Republicans were cruising towards what could be as much as s 40 seat loss in the House.

  409. Tina says:

    Do not worry about Nv.

    The indies break R.

    Election .day is when Rs come out.

    The margin is not enough for a drat win over Heller.

    It just is not happening.

  410. CG says:

    Steve Stivers is the NRCC Chairman. Clearly, the message is that Steve King is being written off, even if King wins.

  411. Tina says:

    Wherein they reside.

    Where does an illegal “reside?”

  412. Tina says:

    Phil,

    Beta Male and Enema should be the 2020 ticket for the Ds.

    Hopefully, the Jebots see this.

  413. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 1:54 pm
    And, I know you don’t want a wall, I know that you want Pelosi with the gavel, I know you don’t want a new, tougher immigration law on the books, which goes after chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits.

    – LOL! I want Pelosi with the gavel? Is that the best you’ve got? If you’re going to lie, try and make the lie semi-believable.

  414. NYCmike says:

    “– Why? If you listened to me in October 2017 would you would have known Republicans were cruising towards what could be as much as s 40 seat loss in the House.”

    -BUT, to remind everyone, Robbie is NOT hoping for the Republicans to lose the House!

  415. Mr.Vito says:

    “The indies break R.

    Election .day is when Rs come out.”

    If so it could be a blowout. See 405.

  416. jason says:

    The libs will suddenly love the conservative SCOTUS Justices when the strike down an EO on birthright citizenship.

    If that happens, Trump’s rants about Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will be epic. I do not see how any conservative could upheld an EO gutting the 14th Amendment.”

    Seems like an easy 9-0 decision.

  417. NYCmike says:

    Lie about you wanting the Democrats to take over the House, which would give Pelosi the gavel……that is not a lie…..you have been wishing for that since…..”If you listened to me in October 2017″…..a year ago.

  418. CG says:

    429. That’s some weird logic.

    It’s like looking at a matchup and assuming the Jets will get killed in their next game and equating that with someone being a Patriots fan.

  419. Tina says:

    I heart Pelosi.

    -jebots

  420. NYCmike says:

    “Seems like an easy 9-0 decision.”

    -Agreed.

  421. Tina says:

    If we listened to Lord Arsehat in 2016….

  422. Robbie says:

    RB says:
    October 30, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    After that than Sasse or Romney would be the goto to the press to stop a judge or something the GOP needed, but they seem more in line with the GOP than say Jeff Flake who literally changes his mind by the minute

    – What’s the evidence that Sasse or Romney would vote against judges? Has Sasse ever voted against a Trump nominee yet? Not that I know of. But I do know that Marco Rubio helped scuttle a great circuit court nominee to the 9th circuit this past Summer.

    Just because some Republicans don’t roll over and play dead for ever idiotic thing Trump says or does doesn’t mean they’ve suddenly become a liberal who opposes conservative policy or appointments.

  423. NYCmike says:

    ” I do not see how any conservative could upheld an EO gutting the 14th Amendment.”

    -Maybe because NOT one conservative has suggested that would happen.

  424. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is rooting for Pelosi, same as Corey, because it’s “bad for Trump”.

    Both still stuck in the 2016 primaries.

  425. CG says:

    Does anyone actually believe Trump is bringing up the 14th Amendment issue now for any reason other than red meat for the base?

    He and everyone around him knows this cannot be done, but they think they can get people to believe it. It’s what he has been doing his entire career.

  426. Mr.Vito says:

    It seems debatable whether someone subject to deportation has a permanent residence in the U.S.

  427. NYCmike says:

    “But I do know that Marco Rubio helped scuttle a great circuit court nominee to the 9th circuit this past Summer.”

    -Name of the nominee?

  428. CG says:

    A couple Trump judicial nominees have gone down because of opposition from John Kennedy of LA and other Senate conservatives.

  429. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:05 pm
    Looks like a woman is accusing Fuhrer Mulehead of sexual harassment that happened in 2010. It will be revealed in 11/1.

    – Bless your heart. I knew you’d fall for this stupid stunt allies of Roger Stone have launched. Sorry, but it’s a fraud.

  430. CG says:

    Does jason really think a now vocal white supremacist is a better person than Robbie?

  431. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:12 pm
    I am sure he is less scum and has more integrity than you do.

    – Poor Jason fraud. He’s left to defend one of the nastiest members of the Republican caucus in the House because he doesn’t like the fact I won’t roll over and play dead for Trump like he has.

  432. mnw says:

    Tester is a big gob of goo. That’s counterintuitive, for a “working rancher & avid outdoorsman.”

  433. NYCmike says:

    “Does anyone actually believe Trump is bringing up the 14th Amendment issue now for any reason other than red meat for the base?”

    -HEY HEY!

    “CG” finally comes to the realization that Trump often says thing for affect (hyperbole), as opposed to for the absolute truthfulness of the statement……kind of like many other politicians.

  434. CG says:

    “nasty” might not have anything do with it, but Steve King of Iowa, who has always been controversial, is now openly a white supremacist, and suggesting that neo-Nazi politicians in Europe would be Republicans in the U.S. He may or may not win next week. I had the district as “Likely R” when I did my predictions for Iowa, but if he does, there may be a move in the House GOP Conference to expel him from it.

  435. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:13 pm
    The 14th Amendment: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and the State wherein they reside.”
    Am not see Trump getting around this with an executive order. To bring this type of an issue up immediately prior to an election is a bad move by Trump.

    – To me, it’s the surest sign he sees the House races going the wrong way and he’s making another attempt to motivate the base in the only way he knows how. Rile up voters over immigration. The executive order is totally transparent just based on its timing.

  436. NYCmike says:

    “A couple Trump judicial nominees have gone down because of opposition from John Kennedy of LA and other Senate conservatives.”

    -I have read about several that have lost votes…..but I did not hear about one who specifically lost because of Rubio…..which is why I asked for the name of that nominee.

    Would you know who Robbie spoke about earlier, or do you simply accept his word as gospel truth?

  437. Tina says:

    Hopefully, Marco Rubio scuttled wearing boots.

    Not a good look.

  438. CG says:

    448. And this doesn’t concern you at all?

    And he does it far more nakedly than any other politician has.

  439. Tina says:

    No, bless your heart.

    All women need to be heard,

    You leftist losahs told us so.

  440. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    “– Why? If you listened to me in October 2017 would you would have known Republicans were cruising towards what could be as much as s 40 seat loss in the House.”
    -BUT, to remind everyone, Robbie is NOT hoping for the Republicans to lose the House!

    – Poor NYCmike doesn’t understand that making a prediction is totally different from a preferred outcome.

    For the last year, ever piece of data has indicated Republicans were cruising for a disastrous showing in the House races. Sorry you chose to ignore it.

  441. NYCmike says:

    Steve King is being called a white supremacist…..could either of you, or anyone else besides the Jebots, please link to the things he has said, or the actions he has taken, which back up these claims?

    Thanks in advance.

  442. DW says:

    Nebraska Senate – D-Internal

    Raybould (D) 39%
    Fischer (R) 54%

  443. CG says:

    Google can be your friend, NYC.

    It looks like Robbie was referring to Trump judicial nominee Ryan Bounds.

    Rubio and others determined his nomination was out of Bounds..

  444. RB says:

    Robbie—really dont want to get into the minutia but i said ‘the press would go to them on judges’. I also said they are more in line with the GOP on this issue…the stuff about Trump i could care less—really—didnt vote for him in 2016

    Point was that with 53+ Senators makes it hard for the GOP senators to get in their own way…the agenda in the Senate is controlled by McConnell(someone i recall you being a fan of)…not Trump

  445. NYCmike says:

    “For the last year, ever piece of data has indicated Republicans were cruising for a disastrous showing in the House races. Sorry you chose to ignore it.”

    -I didn’t choose to ignore it, I made a different prediction than you.

    I made my prediction, which is between 20-30 seat loss. The Republicans may narrowly hold on, or they may narrowly lose control.

  446. Tina says:

    Tester needs to be defeate. Out of touch in Montana.

    I cannot get passed the smearing of Ronny Jackson that Tester did,

    Btw, where is hunting license? Did he get me a hunting license, like John Francois?

  447. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:20 pm
    Amoral Scumbag is rooting for Pelosi, same as Corey, because it’s “bad for Trump”.
    Both still stuck in the 2016 primaries.

    – This is so laughable, but we certainly know you’re not stuck in the 2016 primary. As soon as Trump won, you rolled over for him and put on the red hat for everything but trade. Your opposition to him on trade is so brave, though.

  448. DW says:

    Siena still not curious about NV_03 or NV_04, instead will re-poll VA_07 and WA_08.

  449. NYCmike says:

    “Rubio and others determined his nomination was out of Bounds..”

    -Oh, so it wasn’t just Rubio, as Robbie stated.

    Thanks.

    And as for Google, I’ll use that search engine when I am preparing to make an assertion which needs evidence to back it up. I will not use it to search for something which you say, but provide no proof of.

  450. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:20 pm
    “But I do know that Marco Rubio helped scuttle a great circuit court nominee to the 9th circuit this past Summer.”
    -Name of the nominee?

    – Ryan Bounds

    From Politico: The [pulling of the nomination] came after Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) on Thursday morning flagged Bounds’s past commentary with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). The Florida senator then reviewed the record of Bounds, who was nominated by President Donald Trump. Rubio, who had grown close to Scott during his 2016 White House campaign, soon after sided with Scott against the nomination, according to two people familiar [with] the matter.

  451. CG says:

    The same NYC who insisted that Marco Rubio had betrayed his constituents for merely appearing at a press conference with Chuck Schumer is saying that Steve King who openly met with neo-Nazi political figures in Europe and said they would be welcomed as Republicans in the U.S. gets a pass on being a white nationalist?

  452. Tina says:

    @barneslaw. Note the real import here. #Mueller finds out someone is going to accuse him. What does he do? He uses his federal enforcement power to investigate them, and then refers them for criminal prosecution. Imagine if Kavanaugh had used his judicial powers to go after Ford?

    Houston, we got a problem, if true. An abuse of his power, but Redactstein left him unchecked and The Rinos never price stood up to him.

  453. Robbie says:

    CG says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:23 pm
    Does jason really think a now vocal white supremacist is a better person than Robbie?

    – Of course, he does. Opposing a white nationalist who supports Trump is a sin in the world of Trump support.

  454. NYCmike says:

    “448. And this doesn’t concern you at all?”

    -Should it?

    A politician telling me “You can keep your policy, and your doctor, if you want to.” is much more of an issue than some outlandish thing Trump might say.

  455. NYCmike says:

    Please show me where I gave King a pass.

    I asked for some links to show proof of what he has been accused of.

    Are you against factual evidence, and for innuendo?

    Like a Democrat?

  456. CG says:

    You should be concerned with politicians of either party that lie to you, but you aren’t. It’s your choice.

  457. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:26 pm
    No, bless your heart.
    All women need to be heard,
    You leftist losahs told us so.

    – Sweetheart, and I mean that dismissively, you need to stick to your medication. It will help you not fall for conspiracies. Remember when you said there was no way Mike Flynn would plead guilty and flip on Trump?

  458. NYCmike says:

    Tim Scott opposed Bounds, then Rubio joined him.

    Robbie chose to highlight Rubio, and not Scott.

    Hmmmm…..

  459. mnw says:

    Troll city. Troll site.

  460. CG says:

    This Steve King stuf.f is all over the news. Stop playing dumb NYC.

    The NRCC just denounced him. If he wins, he will probably face expulsion from Congress itself or the Republicans will act to remove him from their conference.

  461. Tina says:

    Robert Barnes
    @Barnes_Law
    14m
    #Mueller was, is, and remains one of the most corrupt in our country’s history. A patrician, less-skilled J. Edgar Mueller. See Whitey Bulger, Noriega, BCCI, HSBC, IRS Tea Party, Fast & Furious, and many, many more. twitter.com/sweetteepie/st.

    A Mute 43 garbage pick for Fib Director.

    Began the destruction of the agency.

  462. DW says:

    BOOM

    TX Senate – Dixie Strategies

    O’Rourke (D) 42%
    Cruz (R) 52%

  463. NYCmike says:

    “You should be concerned with politicians of either party that lie to you, but you aren’t. It’s your choice.”

    -Are you really saying that all of the people you have voted for never lied?

    If so, how is it that Trump was the one who moved the embassy to Jerusalem, and not Bush?

  464. Cash Cow TM says:

    HAZELTON, W.Va. — The Boston Globe reports that gangster James “Whitey” Bulger was killed at at USP Hazelton, in Preston County. It is the third inmate death within seven months.
    ********************************************
    He was 89 years old.
    Had no idea this former mobster was in a prison located in WV.

  465. Tina says:

    I was never concerned with Hillary lying. I always praised her.

    -jebot

  466. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    If you don’t have evidence, fine. Don’t make the statement.

    Be better than the Democrats.

    If there is evidence, post it.

    Why are you unable to give evidence for your statements?

  467. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:36 pm
    Please show me where I gave King a pass.
    I asked for some links to show proof of what he has been accused of.
    Are you against factual evidence, and for innuendo?
    Like a Democrat?

    – Your problem is you never are willing to believe “real” conservatives ever do anything wrong. All you care about is that the hold the “right” positions like Chris McDaniel or Richard Mourdock.

  468. CG says:

    I’ve never voted for a blatant liar. I’ve voted for people who have disappointed me, but there’s a big difference. GWB did not disappoint me.

    The more Trump involves himself in these midterms using these tactics, the more of a risk is run that it will backfire against Republicans. Or that might not happen. I think there are a lot of unknowns this year, but this 14th Amendment stuf.f. is political b.s. if there ever was such a thing.

  469. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:38 pm
    Troll city. Troll site.

    – I know! When you showed up after several years of not posting as a Steve Bannon loving populist, I knew you were a troll.

    Has Newt Gingrich got any great advice for Republicans?

  470. Todd McCain says:

    What exactly did King say? I am having a hard time finding the exact quote.

  471. Tina says:

    You voted for me.

    -Hillary.

  472. NYCmike says:

    Robbie – 1) make statement 2) ignore request to provide evidence to back up statement 3) mention Newt, McDaniel, or some other person nobody else speaks about 4) repeat.

  473. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:37 pm
    Tim Scott opposed Bounds, then Rubio joined him.
    Robbie chose to highlight Rubio, and not Scott.
    Hmmmm…..

    – Had Marco Rubio chosen to ignore what were bogus accusations of racism, Bounds would have been confirmed. It wasn’t Collins or Murkowski who joined Scott. It was Rubio. Bounds would have been confirmed without Scott’s vote with Pence tiebreaking. Rubio stuck the knife is a solid nominee who was smeared as a racist.

  474. NYCmike says:

    See how easy that is!

    Well done!

  475. Mr.Vito says:

    Well I see all the focus is back on immigration in the Caravan based on this thread.

  476. NYCmike says:

    Scott and Rubio chose to vote against the nominee…..you keep highlighting Rubio…..why is that?

  477. NYCmike says:

    “Well I see all the focus is back on immigration in the Caravan based on this thread.”

    -BOOM!

  478. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:43 pm
    What exactly did King say? I am having a hard time finding the exact quote.

    – Here’s one beauty from this clown.

    “Some of them are valedictorians — and their parents brought them in. It wasn’t their fault. It’s true in some cases, but they aren’t all valedictorians. They weren’t all brought in by their parents. For every one who’s a valedictorian, there’s another 100 out there who weigh 130 pounds — and they’ve got calves the size of cantaloupes because they’ve been hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert.”

  479. NYCmike says:

    See how easy that is!

    Well done! x 3

  480. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    “CG”‘s were better.

  481. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:47 pm
    Scott and Rubio chose to vote against the nominee…..you keep highlighting Rubio…..why is that

    – Do you read? Because if you had, I noted that Bounds could have lost one vote in Scott and still passed. Rubio chose to stick a knife in the guy and not allow Pence to be the tie breaker. But keep defending the guy who you hated because he stood next to Schumer.

  482. Waingro says:

    Trump needs to get over to Michigan. There is a golden opportunity here.

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    5h5 hours ago

    Yes, Michigan has many problems. But let’s talk Trump, voters say. https://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/yes-michigan-has-many-problems-lets-talk-trump-voters-say … via @BridgeMichigan

    Good news for John James. Terrible news for lefties. They may have lost MI for quite a while.

  483. Robbie says:

    Tina screaming into her pillow that Jacob Wohl (the youngest person barred for life from futures trading) was wrong again.

    Chris Geidner
    @chrisgeidner

    Special counsel’s office spokesperson Peter Carr: “When we learned last week of allegations that women were offered money to make false claims about the Special Counsel, we immediately referred the matter to the FBI for investigation.” (confirming his comment, reported elsewhere)

  484. Mr.Vito says:

    He should close it out with James… even if he wont win. Great optics and closing message.

    Michigan is mostly same day voting, isnt it?

  485. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 30, 2018 at 2:58 pm
    He should close it out with James… even if he wont win. Great optics and closing message.
    Michigan is mostly same day voting, isnt it?

    – He’d have won if he had been the Republican candidate in 2014.

  486. Mr.Vito says:

    What are the twins yowling about now?

    Geez.

  487. Waingro says:

    Michigan polling was off by about 4 points towards R’s in 2016. Is Trafalgar doing polling this cycle?

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

  488. Waingro says:

    This thread does not bode well for the early registration returns in AZ, but the author seems to be hoping/expecting that things will continue to tighten towards D’s. So I sense a bit of a bias there.

    https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057328570496765952

  489. NYCmike says:

    “But keep defending the guy who you hated because he stood next to Schumer.”

    -Rubio made a bad decision to stand with Schumer, and I called it within 24 hours, and I was shown to be right when he ran for President.

    I should say that I would GLADLY have voted for Rubio for President, and if I lived in Florida, would vote for him for Senate.

    CLEARLY, “hated” is a word I would reserve for terrorists, and rapists, and people who do bad things…even then, I am not sure if I “hate” them, as much as I want them to be taken to task for the deed they have committed.

    BUT, you keep showing off your catholic faith…..

  490. NYCmike says:

    “He should close it out with James… even if he wont win. Great optics and closing message.”

    -Good idea.

  491. NYCmike says:

    “What are the twins yowling about now?”

    -Muh Mueller?

  492. Todd McCain says:

    510. I have been polling this; yes the AZGOP lead is down from 14 points to 10 points, but the overall ballot lead has continued to increase and now stands at 110,000 in favor of the Republicans. I don’t see how Sinema can overcome that unless she is getting considerable GOP crossover or winning the indies 60-40.

  493. Todd McCain says:

    510. Following not polling LOL.

  494. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    7m
    Mueller accuses opponents of offering women money to make ‘false claims’ about him cnb.cx/2P0ZFPW Some little Mulehead appears to be worried.
    View summary ·

    No, mike, it is little Mulehead.

  495. CG says:

    What exactly would the “closing message” be for Trump standing alongside John James?

    Please be specific.

    “Check out my African-American.” He’s used that line before at a rally.

    Plus, doesn’t Trump not like people who lose?

  496. Tina says:

    I am sure Twitter Garrett is aware of the 110000 margin.

  497. Tina says:

    Robert Barnes
    @Barnes_Law
    57m
    Apparently, liberal lawyers don’t believe all women. At least, when they accuse a perceived ally. This is without even hearing what the allegation is or hearing from the accuser. twitter.com/steve_vladeck/…
    View

    Yup, the Jebots flipped on this one. Need to be heard, Kav needs to resign…

  498. Mr.Vito says:

    “Please be specific.”

    Go listen to James speak. You’re getting better at Google.

  499. Tina says:

    Robert Barnes
    @Barnes_Law
    54m
    #Mueller was, is, and remains one of the most corrupt in our country’s history. A patrician, less-skilled J. Edgar Mueller. See Whitey Bulger, Noriega, BCCI, HSBC, IRS Tea Party, Fast & Furious, and many, many more. twitter.com/sweetteepie/st…
    View details ·

    Bushbamas henchman,

  500. Tina says:

    The Jebots hate AAs.

    Remember, they all “look alike.”

    They are predators., or whatever Hillary called the,.

  501. Hugh says:

    Only in liberal land is losing winning. I love some of the posts. “But Sinema is getting twice as many cross votes as McSally”. Really? Republicans are voting for a progressive loon? Common sense trumps polls sometimes

  502. Tina says:

    James is a threat to the Jebots.

    Really a great speaker and is making.a game out of it in Mi.

    Mi has trended more R since 2016.

  503. Mr.Vito says:

    Maybe some Republicans don’t like James’ message, I guess…

    can’t please everybody.

  504. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    497. https://thehill.com/homenews/house/413601-steve-king-members-of-nazi-linked-party-in-austria-would-be-republicans-if

    Pro-Nazi? The Austrian Freedom Party is part of the government. It strongly supports Israel, and recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

    Like so many political parties in Europe, the Freedom Party has evolved. How many post-war leaders of Germany were involved with the Nazis during WWII?

    Currently, the survival of Israel is threatened the most by Iran, which Obama and the liberals pandered to.

  505. CG says:

    James is a very impressive speaker.

    He is still unlikely to win and anyone who might be motivated by Trump’s support for him is already on board in the state. Trump should go to redder places than Michigan if he is to anywhere.

    So, I am not sure what Trump has to do with the message unless the message is “hey, I’m not a racist.”

  506. CG says:

    Tina is even battier than usual today, and that is really saying something.

  507. Mr.Vito says:

    “James is a very impressive speaker.”

    And a Trump rally the day before voting will be his biggest platform…

  508. Tina says:

    Clinton Groupie is more stupider than usual, and that is really saying something,

  509. Tina says:

    Notice the code words the Clinton grouipie throws around:

    Nazi Trump

    Racist trump.

  510. Mr.Vito says:

    If the twins are representative of party leadership, it’s no wonder they lose.

  511. Tina says:

    I know I do not like James’ message.

    -Jebot

  512. CG says:

    James and Trump do not seem to have the same message. It would be an odd fit.

    James seems to be running on the politics of opportunity. Trump is eternally embedded to the politics of grievance. It’s hard to see a love-fest or any chemistry between them, even if they claim agreement on some issues.

    Republicans made their choice in 2016. The latter won the state, the former is unlikely to win the state.

    Maybe a factor is that unlike Hillary, Stabenow will not ignore Michigan campaign-wise.

  513. CG says:

    I don’t think very many people go to Trump rallies to hear what anyone says other than DJT. Swing voters aren’t watching C-SPAN, even if C-SPAN were to cover it live.

    Other speakers certainly do not make it onto the news, which seems to be what Trump prefers as well.

  514. NYCmike says:

    “Trump should go to redder places than Michigan if he is to anywhere.”

    -Too bad you weren’t an adviser in 2016…..

  515. NYCmike says:

    “James seems to be running on the politics of opportunity. Trump is eternally embedded to the politics of grievance. It’s hard to see a love-fest or any chemistry between them, even if they claim agreement on some issues.”

    -I saw just a small part of the video when that Tipping Points USA group went to the White House……and Trump spoke about more opportunity for black Americans at least 2x in that small segment I saw…….maybe “CG” should watch it….

  516. CG says:

    Anybody who likes Trump in Michigan is already for John James, except the rabidly racist I suppose, and there may not be anything Trump can do to change them.

    Focus on closer races, *if* you think Trump can help more than hurt.

  517. CG says:

    537. You’ve already conceded today that Trump is a politician who says a lot of things he doesn’t really mean.

    When he talks about things like that, it’s clear he doesn’t really mean it like a Marco Rubio, et al.

  518. Tina says:

    Yes, James and Trumo have nothing in common.

    Lol.

  519. CG says:

    My sense is that DJT is probably well below John James on just about every possible scale of “goodness.”

  520. Tina says:

    I went to a red state (Arizona) and got burned late in 2016

    -Hillary.

  521. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    3m
    Sumter Co., FL (red): 50% of Rs have now voted in the county, as far as we can tell, the first county in FL to have half it’s registered voters vote.
    View details ·

  522. Mr.Vito says:

    Pretty much nothing you are saying makes any sense unless someone hates Trump so much they already think it is all true.

    Most of the country has moved on. But the lefties would love to hear your sermon.

  523. CG says:

    544. You just prefer to have your own feelings validated. I get that about you.

  524. Mr.Vito says:

    “544. You just prefer to have your own feelings validated. I get that about you.”

    You’re going with ‘i know you are but what am i’

    Nice touch.

  525. CG says:

    But in regards to “most of the country”, does most of the country approve of Trump or disapprove? Does most of the country think positively about him or negatively?

    The answer is pretty clear, although some here will claim the opposite.

    As it relates to the 2018 midterms, who are the remaining swing voters and what are the races that are still winnable?

  526. CG says:

    I actually enjoy talking to people with whom I do not agree. I get that here on the “right” and I have gotten it with leftists elsewhere. I do not need an echo chamber or a validation society.

  527. Mr.Vito says:

    Every conversation with you ends with you deciding the other person has a pathology or neurosis.

    Seek help.

  528. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “Common sense trumps polls sometimes.”

    I see polls and good indicators of political trends, if a candidate is going up or down in the same poll, that has some value.

    The actual poll numbers vary based on methodology, and so far do not see any poll that is reliable in this regard. If everyone still had a land line, then polling would be more certain. But now polling is based on modeling, adjusting poll data based on weighting, etc. Its a fancy form of making an educated guess. If polls reflect the actual outcome of an election, it probably is mostly quintessential. But the political class thrives on polls to escape boredom.

  529. CG says:

    Nah, Vito, I just think you are insecure and want to be part of a “group.” It’s nothing horrible.

  530. Mr.Vito says:

    ‘Most of the country’ does not hate Trump like you, which the polls show.

    They have moved on. You should too.

  531. Mr.Vito says:

    “…who are the remaining swing voters and what are the races that are still winnable?”

    According to house polls, between 5-20% depending on the district.

  532. CG says:

    Most of the country disapproves of Trump and views him unfavorably. Feel free to think otherwise but it’s not really backed up by any evidence. I am in the mainstream. I part ways with many of them as it relates to the other tribe though. They have their problems too to be certain.

  533. CG says:

    The 5-20 percent are probably the least likely to be staunch Trump defenders.

    Depending on the district, they are probably upscale suburban types.

  534. NYCmike says:

    Actually, “CG”, when he speaks about opportunity, and then follows it up with the policy proposals he has put forth, and getting rid of new work rules which usually help larger, more-well-established firms, etc, etc, opportunity usually occurs for more people, no matter their skin tone.

  535. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    551. Spell check strikes again. Meant “coincidental” and not “quintessential”

  536. mnw says:

    Sen. Graham to introduce bill abolishing birthright citizenship.

    Lindsay Graham, born again immigration hawk.

    I wish Trump would call some attention to the Chinese “birthright tourism” industry. People would throw up if they ever learned about it.

  537. CG says:

    Do Trump’s staunchest fans, by and large, back him for his “policy plans”, specifically as they relate to creating opportunity for racial minorities or because he gives voice to their cultural anxieties?

    It seems pretty obvious.

    Trump knows where his political bread is buttered and it’s not by standing on a stage arm in arm with John James, whom is almost certain to be defeated in his race, regardless.

  538. Mr.Vito says:

    “Feel free to think otherwise but it’s not really backed up by any evidence.”

    Believing most of the country hates Trump like you is not backed up by evidence. No one said anything about his approval numbers, but you knew that.

    “Depending on the district, they are probably upscale suburban types.”

    That kind in Michigan that would like John James message… yes.

  539. NYCmike says:

    “Most of the country disapproves of Trump and views him unfavorably.”

    -Isn’t this kind of like the popular vote argument??

    More Democratic reasoning from “CG”…..

  540. Redmen4ever says:

    McCaskill wants McConnell to call the Senate back into session so she can change her vote on Kavanaugh.

  541. NYCmike says:

    “It seems pretty obvious.”

    -That you are still affected by Trump’s beatdown of JEB!2016?

    YES, VERY OBVIOUS!

  542. CG says:

    During the primaries, when Jeb Bush brought up the Chinese birth tourism thing, Trump attacked him and said he was racist against Asian people.

    There is no way to get around “birthright citizenship” absent a Constitutional Amendment and Lindsey Graham and everyone else knows it.

    It will take years to accomplish. I doubt anybody truly intends to try.

  543. NYCmike says:

    “specifically as they relate to creating opportunity for racial minorities or because he gives voice to their cultural anxieties?”

    -MORE Democratic-like talk….

  544. hugh says:

    I do agree with this statement

    I see polls and good indicators of political trends, if a candidate is going up or down in the same poll, that has some value.

  545. NYCmike says:

    Funny enough, when Rudy Giuliani had a campaign slogan of “One City, One Standard”, people called him a racist……..

  546. CG says:

    They don’t have to “hate” him like me. Everyone’s vote counts equally. Most Americans disapprove of him and dislike. A ton of people “hate” him far, far, far, more than me. I defend positions I agree with and criticize what I consider unfair or irrelevant attacks against him. I never joined the crowd that wanted to burn Kavanaugh at the stake, because I believe in truth and fairness.

    Trump has severe political viability problems. For now, he is lucky Democrats are so messed up.

  547. Tina says:

    During 2016, flub sold guac bowls.

    How much are they today? 5 cents?

  548. CG says:

    My theory is that Trump would hurt more than help with upscale suburban Detroit voters.

    The way he could legitimately get more potential votes for James is if he could change the hearts of the racists in the state who will stay home, but that’s about the last thing he will get involved with.

  549. Mr.Vito says:

    “It seems pretty obvious.”

    Only that you believe Trump and everyone who doesn’t hate him like you must be a racist…

  550. NYCmike says:

    “During the primaries, when Jeb Bush brought up the Chinese birth tourism thing, Trump attacked him and said he was racist against Asian people.”

    -And “CG” is still talking about this……

  551. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    555. “Most of the country disapproves of Trump and views him unfavorably.”

    Actually a large number of people have mixed feelings about Trump. I know some Bernie liberals who say good things about his stand on trade and other issues. Americans tend to be ambivalent about politicians, which is a good thing for a democracy. Politicians are human, so a mix of virtues and vices. A lot of candidates win who are viewed as “the lesser of two evils.” It is one reason political adds are often so negative.

  552. CG says:

    562. It goes beyond the popular vote argument. As we saw, a lot of people voted for Trump who very much disliked him, because of Hillary, mainly.

    We all know the EV matters more than the popular vote, but it would not be a smart strategy to just assume that losing the popular vote will be fine and that the EV is still going to be easy.

  553. Mr.Vito says:

    Your theories have been pretty suspect.

    And are a bit of a sad, dark take on the world, really.

  554. NYCmike says:

    “My theory…”

    -And no amount of evidence to the contrary will be tolerated!

    Dagnabit! Get off my lawn!

  555. CG says:

    I do not believe everyone who likes Trump is a racist. Not even close.

    I do believe everyone who likes Trump is willing to overlook racism.

  556. NYCmike says:

    “We all know the EV matters more than the popular vote, but it would not be a smart strategy to just assume that losing the popular vote will be fine and that the EV is still going to be easy.”

    -Again to the “easy’ canard.

    NOT ONE PERSON HERE thinks 2020 is a shoe-in for Trump.

    If there is, please point that person out, as I would like to hear their reasoning in such a 50-50 nation.

  557. CG says:

    I often see sayings like “cruising to reelection” or the suggestion that because of Kanye, Trump now has 40% black support or something like that, but I will take it under advisement that “NOT ONE PERSON HERE” thinks Trump is going to have an easy ride in 2020 (if he runs.)

    So, on that we can be in agreement.

  558. NYCmike says:

    “I do believe everyone who likes Trump is willing to overlook racism.”

    -Have you heard of Jordan Peterson? He has been called a racist, a Nazi sympathizer, anti-homosexual, etc, etc……I am willing to overlook how the media/liberal characterize individuals, and attempt to make up my own mind about them.

  559. Mr.Vito says:

    “I do believe everyone who likes Trump is willing to overlook racism.”

    You know a lot of things that aren’t so. Reagan had a word for that.

  560. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    If Trump and Graham want to move forward, they would need to propose revising the 14th Amendment to state something to the effect – “children born to parents who are American citizens” or “born to parents who are American citizens or legal residents” of the United States.

    To amend the Constitution is a laborious process, but on the other hand it might be an amendment the majority of the population supports, so would help Republicans in elections.

  561. CG says:

    Generally speaking, in a 50/50 nation, an incumbent President, especially one with poor poll numbers, should refrain from the campaign trail.

    Trump is not doing that though clearly. And because we are so polarized by states and geography, etc, maybe that will be smart because he can have a positive effect in some places.

    There are many places though where he would hurt more than help by the same token.

  562. CG says:

    I have not heard of Jordan Peterson.

    Ronald Reagan would have called out Trump for the racism he feeds on.

  563. CG says:

    And again Vito, “believe” is different than “know.”

    My beliefs are what they are. I am sorry you find them so threatening to your own.

  564. Wes says:

    Mikey, former poster Trump would repeatedly declare President Trump is cruising to reelection.

  565. Wes says:

    Did you ever call out the Democrats for the racism they feed on, Corey, or is Trump alone capable of racism in your mind?

  566. Mr.Vito says:

    And again Vito, “believe” is different than “know.”

    So your beliefs are not based on what you know.

    At least that’s close to the truth.

  567. DW says:

    ND-Senate – Trafalgar Group

    Heitkamp (D) 46%
    Cramer (R) 55%

  568. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    578. “I do believe everyone who likes Trump is willing to overlook racism.”

    That statement is total nonsense. Your self-righteousness is evident.

  569. CG says:

    I’ve spent literally my whole life criticizing Democrats for racism and racial politics.

    The earliest memory I have of “political activism” is putting an anti-Jesse Jackson sign for my name tag thing for my desk at elementary school because Jesse Jackson had attacked Jews.

  570. Tina says:

    Dow +430.

    Higher than expected consumer confidence numbers and a recovery.

  571. Wes says:

    Every Saturday morning I smoke cigars and drink coffee with a retired black Master Sergeant. He’s an ardent Trump supporter. I’m sure he’d be shocked to know he willfully overlooks Trump’s supposed “racism.”

  572. Tina says:

    Is Trafalgar doing any more polling?

  573. CG says:

    My beliefs are based upon what I believe. The same as yours. I also believe we all have the right to believe what we want. Some act more threatened by that concept, even on political blogs, than others.

    There are things I “know” though that are irrelevant to opinion. One of those things is that a majority of Americans disapprove of Donald Trump and view him unfavorably.

    Now, perhaps one day that will change. I do not “believe” it will though.

  574. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    585. “Ronald Reagan would have called out Trump for the racism he feeds on.”

    Really? How long have you been been clairvoyant?

  575. CG says:

    Racism is not only against black people.

    Even Trump’s fans here claimed over and over again during the primary campaign that he was racist… Judge Curiel, etc. etc.

    But now that he won, they believe we should “get over it.”

    Suit yourselves.

  576. NYCmike says:

    “I am sorry you find them so threatening to your own.”

    -You addressed this remark to Mr. Vito.

    Where did the Sock express any sort of fear about what you believe?

  577. Tina says:

    I never called out Hillarys Racism.

    -jebot

  578. BayernFan says:

    Anyone who thinks Trump is racist is a blithering idiot.

  579. CG says:

    My belief is that Mr. Vito is as the term goes a “snowflake.” Doesn’t mean he is a horrible person even though he may think I am.

    Since he says he is a lifelong Democrat and “more left” on issues than we realize, it makes more sense.

  580. NYCmike says:

    I can remember when Reagan was accused of racism…….as well as Bush Sr., Dole, Bush 43, McCain, Romney……etc, etc.

  581. CG says:

    603. Yes the left loved to cry wolf. Which is why we all got stuck with Trump.

  582. Mr.Vito says:

    “My beliefs are based upon what I believe. The same as yours.”

    I base my beliefs on what I know. Thanks.

    “I also believe we all have the right to believe what we want. Some act more threatened by that concept, even on political blogs, than others.”

    My guess is they are the ones that think everyone else is racist or has a neurosis…

    “There are things I “know” though that are irrelevant to opinion.”

    The truth is always relevant to opinion… otherwise it is fantasy.

  583. Wes says:

    I believe racism is an overused charge intended primarily to marginalize people in politics we don’t like.

  584. NYCmike says:

    Yup….Mr. Vito is the snowflake…..and you are the rock-solid conservative who still mentions shooting on 5th Avenue.

  585. CG says:

    Yes, I will not forget the Fifth Avenue comments. They remain indicative of a woefully unworthy person.

    Again, if you want to go the other way on that, suit yourselves.

  586. Tina says:

    Drats love to throw the racist canard out there.

  587. NYCmike says:

    “Which is why we all got stuck with Trump.”

    -November 8, 2016!

    B E A U TEA FULL!

  588. Wes says:

    Meanwhile I’v never seen Corey criticize Hillary for calling Trump supporters a “basket of deplorables.”

  589. NYCmike says:

    “Yes, I will not forget the Fifth Avenue comments. ”

    -This remains indicative of a woefully overly-emotional decision-maker.

  590. Mr.Vito says:

    But now that he won, they believe we should “get over it.”

    Well, it took a lot of posts for you to agree that you can’t get over your hate, and that you view that group as your “we”… could have just said I was right a few dozen posts ago.

  591. Wes says:

    That was an inclusive statement by Hillary, I tell you.

  592. NYCmike says:

    Just went to Yahoo front page……ANOTHER story on Beto O’Rourke!

  593. NYCmike says:

    “Well, it took a lot of posts for you to agree that you can’t get over your hate, and that you view that group as your “we”… could have just said I was right a few dozen posts ago.”

    -Let’s be fair, Mr. Vito.

    I have been saying this for almost two years, since November 9, 2016.

  594. dblaikie says:

    Personally I get sick at anyone who tries to tie in Trump with the shooting Pittsburgh. My goodness his son-in-law is Jewish, there has been no better friend to Israel. He is the one who had the guts to back out of our shameful treaty with Iraq and the one to move the embassy to Jerusalem.

    And the biggest fallacy is this junk about “White Nationalism”. Anyone with half a brain knows that Nationalism is the political, social, and economic system characterized by the promotion of the interests of a particular nation. When the President puts the interest of our steelworkers, who are very diverse, above the interests of foreign steelworkers he is not being racial in any form.

  595. CG says:

    611. I’m certain I’ve done it here. I made reference to it just last week.

    But I guess I got accused of talking about Hillary all the time, etc, on the almost dead leftist blog I posted at for years, (that NYC knows about.) There, they thought I was “obsessed” with the Clintons and was basically a “Trump sycophant” because I supported Kavanuagh and tax cuts and did not agree with each and every possible attack on Trump at any given time.

    On the internet, people hear what they want to hear.

  596. CG says:

    “Nationalism” is bunk, both historically and now, but what do the people “without a brain” think of when they hear Trump talking about nationalism.

    Whatever his intent, a lot of people hear “white nationalism”

    I’ll side with John McCain on the topic any day.

  597. NYCmike says:

    ““Nationalism” is bunk, both historically and now, but what do the people “without a brain” think of when they hear Trump talking about nationalism.”

    -They think Trump is speaking about what is good for the citizens of this country.

    Very simple.

    You think otherwise.

  598. NYCmike says:

    The problem lies in how you view Trump, not how Trump views the American citizen.

  599. Tina says:

    Wes,

    I have never heard the Jebot mention

    Super Predator

    Bring them to heel

    They all look alike.

    Granted, the last one was yesterday and the Jebot may have just woken up.

  600. CG says:

    What I think is that the racists hear racism when they say hear it.

    “To fear the world we have organized and led for three-quarters of a century, to abandon the ideals we have advanced around the globe, to refuse the obligations of international leadership and our duty to remain ‘the last best hope of earth’ for the sake of some half-baked, spurious nationalism cooked up by people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems is as unpatriotic as an attachment to any other tired dogma of the past that Americans consigned to the ash heap of history.

    “We live in a land made of ideals, not blood and soil.”

    We have made our choices. You guys can be DJT Republicans or DJT Democrats and I will remain a John McCain Republican.

  601. CG says:

    621. You admitted today that Trump openly lies to the American people because he can.

  602. Tina says:

    I will remain a Hillary D.

    -Jebot

  603. Mr.Vito says:

    Whatever his intent, a lot of people hear “white nationalism”

    People like Corey.

  604. CG says:

    Hillary was right in the 90s when she spoke of “super predators.” It had nothing to do with race. It is a sad commentary on today’s Democrats that she had to back away from that with her tail between her legs.

  605. RB says:

    Lyon and White Pine came in and was net + 700 for the GOP

    Dem lead for the week 6836

  606. mnw says:

    590 DW

    -9-points is the closest I’ve seen Heitkamp in months.

  607. Tina says:

    au ng
    @athein1
    10m
    Replying to @athein1
    Correction: 11167 now. 11196 was yesterday’s Dem lead.
    View conversation ·
    au ng au ng
    @athein1
    12m
    NV EV updated chart 1 pm 10/30 — Dem lead growth has stopped, at least for 1 day. Only 4 more days of EV left. It’s at 11196. If it doesn’t grow by more than 10k in the next 4 days, Ds are in trouble. pic.twitter.com/7ix3eWRkdq
    View photo ·

    Ds in twubble in Nv.

  608. NYCmike says:

    “621. You admitted today that Trump openly lies to the American people because he can.”

    -Heh.

  609. Mr.Vito says:

    Its not a ‘growth’ thing… it’s a weekend thing.

    The Dems banked over 7000 votes in EV on the first weekend in the two urban counties, and then it dwindled to a little over 4000 in all for the week. Now they have started this week by banking over 7000 votes the second weekend, and the GOP is hoping for the same pattern.

  610. NYCmike says:

    “John McCain Republican.”

    -You would pick Palin as your V.P.?

    Great.

  611. NYCmike says:

    McCain just about excused himself as opposed to fighting against Obama…..I figure “CG” would rather be that kind of Republican……

  612. RB says:

    Traditionally the GOP has done well in Monday and Teusday of week 2…its the last 2 days to watch out for…

    Not sure this is the type of State the ‘Republicans are tripping over themselves to vote D’

    It is actually the small Rural counties where the GOP is on fire.

  613. CG says:

    633. Nope, that was a mistake. But just one chapter of a very honorable life and career.

    Of course, he should have picked Mitt.

  614. CG says:

    McCain was considered one of Obama’s most ardent critics when Obama was in office. Obama certainly had some resentment for that.

    I can list a ton of reasons why the McCain 2008 campaign made mistakes. I wasn’t for him in the primaries. But in calling myself a McCain Republican, I am speaking of the general worldview that governed his ideology and view of American leadership, as opposed to just political or personal specifics.

  615. Todd McCain says:

    NBC Marist:

    Blackburn 51
    Bredesen 46

  616. NYCmike says:

    “McCain was considered one of Obama’s most ardent critics when Obama was in office. Obama certainly had some resentment for that.”

    -Oh Lord! Typical MSM claptrap.

    McCain was useless against Obama. He did nothing to stop him.

    Obama was kept from doing a lot more damage when voters helped Republicans take over the House, and then the Senate.

  617. mnw says:

    We will start to see a blizzard of DEM rescue polls now.

  618. CG says:

    What was McCain supposed to do to “stop Obama” that he did not?

    He opposed him on just about every major issue.

  619. Phil says:

    638

    Thanks for that poll, Todd.

    I think we can safely say Tennessee, Texas, and ND are safely tucked away going into election day.

    I think Mo and Indiana are close but lean GOP.

    I also believe Heller wins narrowly in Nevada.

    Florida and Arizona are tough, but I believe are still winnable. A split of those two would give us a net of three seats on Tuesday night – a very good night’s work.

    I would not be disappointed if we could keep the House losses to the upper 20s, although of course I’d like to stay in control of the House.

  620. NYCmike says:

    “He opposed him on just about every major issue.”

    -So I guess a John McCain Republican is similar to a Ted Cruz Republican?

  621. CG says:

    Based on races in every district, I’d like Republicans to stay in control of the House too but also said last week I would “not be disappointed” if that did not come to be.

    People didn’t like that choice of words though.

    What will the call be if Republicans win 2-3 in the Senate but lose 25-30 in the House? (Not considering here the Governorships which will probably be good for Democrats)

    Red Wave? Don’t think that works.

    Blue Wave? A mixed one if that

    More like a Red Wall preventing a larger Blue Wave.

  622. CG says:

    Except McCain was more effective in the Senate, sure.

  623. NYCmike says:

    “Except McCain was more effective in the Senate, sure.”

    -For which party?

  624. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Cruz(R) 52% to O’Rourke(D) 42% in new CBS/Dixie Strategies Poll in the TX Senate race.
    So the two longshots–TX and TN– are off the table for the Democrats.

    https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2018/10/30/cruz-abbott-pull-ahead-in-latest-poll/

  625. NYCmike says:

    McCain-Feingold?

    Thumbs-down episode?

  626. CG says:

    648. For America

    This concept that McCain did not oppose the policies of Obama as President is just flat out absurd.

  627. CG says:

    Neither of those things are related to anything to do with the Obama Presidency.

  628. Mr.Vito says:

    McCain was a good guy.

    By the end or the next decade his legacy will probably be on the back of the same Trivial Pursuit card as Gary Maxwell’s aluminum bats.

    Both can be true.

  629. CG says:

    According to Rush Limbaugh’s transcripts, he changed course and attempted to “talk down” the Red Wave a bit. Warned that the House was at risk.

    This could be major news to those who have believed that any possibility of Republican losses was “fake news.”

  630. Phil says:

    Nobody that I know has ever asserted that there would not be losses in the HOUSE.

  631. RB says:

    WOW…was listning to C. Todd interview Marist guy…

    They are doing a ‘new model this year’ called Probability Screen vs. Likely Screen

    Instead of LV…they give a certain voter or Already voted voter ‘full weight’

    A probable voter gets 3/4 weight
    A Somewhat likely gets 1/2 weight
    Anorher category gets 1/4 weight

    Kind of a hybrid LV/RV model

    He isnt sure if it will work but said we’ll see next Wed

    BTW they are polling FL and MO…with that model i expect good dem numbers from them

  632. CG says:

    There was a prominent poster here who insisted for a couple months at least that Republicans would *gain* House seats. They bravely asserted this in many posts, admittedly against conventional wisdom. The last I heard, this person on HHR admitted they changed their mind and last I remember was now predicting a mere five seat GOP loss.

    But yeah Rush was saying on the air for a while that Republicans would do what they did in 2016 and keep gaining in Democrat areas and a “huge red wave” was coming.

    Today he is saying, …not so much, too many retirements, and that a “Red Wave” now means Dems do not take over the Senate.

  633. CG says:

    This was a major mistake by Lena Epstein (who is actually Jewish) and an embarrassment to Pence and others.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/jews-assail-so-called-christian-rabbi-who-appeared-pence-so-n926406

    I know there are people here in the past who have claimed that “Jews for Jesus” are still Jewish. They are not. It’s offensive to Jews to suggest they are. They are Christians, and that’s fine. Christians are great people. These specific people shouldn’t have to slander Jews to suit their own purposes.

  634. ReadyFirst says:

    Good news! I can report the 4:06PM FL EV numbers of 523,623 REP are actually now 523,625 REP because my girl and I just voted and got our stickers.

  635. ReadyFirst says:

    Boy, this place sure went to hell this afternoon. Who peed all over the thread?

  636. Redmen4ever says:

    Marist – Tennessee:

    Trump Job Approval: 56 to 39
    Generic Congressional Ballot: 54 to 40
    Party Affiliation: 43 to 27

    Breseden did well to keep this state in play for as long as he did.

  637. Tina says:

    I,think Beta male has big mo.

  638. ReadyFirst says:

    662. Big downward mo.

  639. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is another AZ Senate Poll showing McSally(R) +2.

    http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/breaking–senate-dead-heat-and-dominant-ducey

  640. Albert Hodges says:

    CG,

    Most here consider me annoying so I tend to ignore other pains in the butts….but

    Are you Jewish? If not, who made you the judge of who is a Jew and who is not?

    If JEWS who accept Christ, who was the one that many Jews accepted as the promised Messiah and some still do, then if those Jews label themselves as Christian as well, the that is up to them.

    I am currently pursuing an additional Graduate degree in Religious Studies with an emphasis on Early Christian Origins. I am telling you that there is a significant number of people of Jewish ethnicity/origins who also accept Jesus as Christ. Even in the Catholic Church, we have papal approved groups such as the Association of Hebrew Catholics who would tell you they are both Jewish AND Christian.

    Funny how liberals want to force everyone to accept how every sexually or gender confused person identifies themselves which is NUTS but calls it racist/bigoted when Christ-accepting Jews want to call themselves both Jewish and Christian.

  641. Waingro says:

    #664, that a Republican/internal poll?

  642. Waingro says:

    “RB says:
    October 30, 2018 at 5:56 pm ”

    Absurd. Left wing hack pollsters pulling out all the stops to try and forge a narrative of “inevitability” and depress GOP turnout by putting thumbs on scales.

  643. lisab says:

    That’s some weird logic.

    It’s like looking at a matchup and assuming the Jets will get killed in their next game and equating that with someone being a Patriots fan.
    ——————————————

    not if the guy who says it is dressed in a brady jersey and keeps yelling “go pats” every day

  644. Mr.Vito says:

    It’s the lineup.

    “FNC averaged 1.7 million total viewers to finish as the most-watched basic cable network for the 28th straight month. Rupert Murdoch’s cable news network also topped all of basic cable during the primetime hours of 8-11 p.m. ET for the fifth consecutive month despite heavy competition from Major League Baseball playoffs and other major sporting events, such as NFL and NBA games.

    Fox News averaged 2.8 million primetime viewers as ESPN averaged 2.7 million and TBS picked up 2.5 million to round out the top three. MSNBC finished fourth, averaging 1.5 million primetime viewers and CNN finished a dismal ninth while failing to crack the one-million viewer plateau and finishing behind networks such as Hallmark Channel and HGTV.”

  645. Redmen4ever says:

    My current forecast:

    SENATE
    Rs currently at 51
    prospects (in order of probability): IN, AZ, NV, FL, MT(*), WV, NJ
    (*) my hunch is that we wind up with 56

    HOUSE
    Rs currently at 202 (this includes 2 flips, MN08 and NV03)
    tilt R (8) (merely in alpha order): KS02, KY06, MT01, NC09, NM02, NY02, NY21, OH10
    TOTAL (if we’re lucky) 210
    toss-up (23) (merely in alpha order): AZ01 (flip), CA39, CA45, FL26, IL06, ME02, MN01, NY27, PA01, TX32, VA05, VA07, WA08, WI08
    Ds currently at 211

    best clawback opportunities (these are included in the 211 of the Ds) (8): FL27, IA01, IA03, MI11, NJ03, NY19, NY22, UT04

    CONTROL OF SENATE no longer in play
    CONTROL OF HOUSE Rs have a path but Ds are in the driver’s seat; at beat, Rs lose seats; at best, Ds make a big gain

    Red Wave/Blue Wave – First, there is no Red Wave. In Senate races, we have a decided home field advantage. We’re supposed to net seats even against a modest Blue Wave. Second, the Blue Wave has thus far mostly been a money wave. There is no evidence yet that the money advantage will be followed by a surge at the polls.

  646. mnw says:

    RF 660

    You ask, “Who peed all over the thread?”

    2 threadpigtrolls, Vichey & corr-eee, get the blame for that.

    But… a BIG assist goes to the real, genuine posters here who FEED these trolls, & act as if all their foolish trollbullzhIt needed to be parsed & analyzed like a SCOTUS decision.

    For the life of me, I can’t figure out why real, longtime posters want to turn this site over to those 2 DEM sockpuppet trash.

  647. Mr.Vito says:

    “You ask, “Who peed all over the thread?””

    mnw

  648. mnw says:

    665 Albert?

    I’m looking at YOU.

    You are serving that idiottroll a 6-course gourmet meal.

  649. mnw says:

    Vito 672

    Pardon?

  650. Mr.Vito says:

    “Pardon?”

    He tooted, too.

  651. mnw says:

    Vito

    Help me with this. Do you imply some criticism?

    You LIKE what Vichey & corr-eee do here?

  652. Mr.Vito says:

    It was a joke, man.

  653. mnw says:

    OK. Cool, then.

    I remember what it was like before they took over– a lot better.

  654. Bitterlaw says:

    For the life of me, I can’t figure out why real, longtime posters want to turn this site over to those 2 DEM sockpuppet trash.

    Speaking as one of the longest posting people here (2004), I would prefer to have posters of different and sometimes annoying views than an echo chamber. I do not agree with Robbie and Corey often and Corey will not even respond to my posts but they can stay as long as they want. I always said that I am staying until the Wizard pulls this circus tent down but if it becomes a pro-Trump echo chamber, I may reconsider.

  655. Bitterlaw says:

    I remember what it was like before they took over– a lot better.

    Ah yes. The good old days when lisab was called a g*sh and Hispanics were “wetbacks.”

  656. CG says:

    I’ve posted here since 2004 as well. So has Robbie.

    My views have not changed. I was never called a “Democrat” until Trump took over the party. The irony.

    And Bitterlaw, on substantive matters, I actually think you almost always agree with me.

  657. mnw says:

    If it continues on the glide path to a site totally dominated by 2 trolls, I believe this place will just fade away as countless other sites have

    These trolls aren’t “expressing a different opinion.” Those trolls are here to MOCK & to spew DEM talking points, & EEEYORE* in hopes of driving the rest of us away..

    sad!

  658. Mr.Vito says:

    “I do not agree with Robbie and Corey often”

    “…on substantive matters, I actually think you almost always agree with me.”

    The takeaway here is Corey doesn’t say much of substance.

  659. Hugh says:

    679. I agree with Bitter. A great poster on this site. Though I worry about him even if I don’t know him.

  660. DW says:

    GOP having a rough night in Siena polling:

    WA_08 – Just getting started, Rossi up but only 10 responses

    VA_07 – Brat getting clobbered by 12 with 73 responses. Terrible.

    CA_48 – R+12 with 82 responses

    TX_32 – D+2 with 150 responses

    IA_01 – D+7 with 240 responses – probably a decent result

    GA_06 – D+12 – a reversal after first day, 140 responses

    NJ_07 – D+9 387 responses – a disaster.

    KS_02 – D+4 489 responses

    NC_09 – R+1 – finished

    CA_45 – D+7, 327 responses.

  661. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag and Corey are not trolls.

    They are Nancy Pelosi “conservatives”. In other words, if it’s “bad for Trump” any means justify the ends. They want Democratic congress even if its run by people as far removed from ANY conservative principle as you possible get, merely because somehow, someway, that is bad for the individual they have abandoned all conservative principles in order to hate.

    They have as much right to post here as anyone else, and we have as much right to call them on their BS as anyone else.

  662. Phil says:

    I’ve been here today looking for polls. I’ve gotten two good ones out of Tennessee and Texas. It hasn’t been all that tough to scroll past the two tag team trolls during the day. They say the same thing over and over – Trump bad, Republicans will lose, spout MSM talking points, blah, blah, blah……

  663. MichiganGuy says:

    Tennessee Senate:
    .
    Blackburn 53%
    Bredesen 47%
    .
    Vox Populi Polling
    https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TN-Statewide-Topline-Results-10.30.18.pdf

  664. Tina says:

    Two tag team trolls.

    Love it.

  665. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – We have had posters come and go. There used to be real Dems here – Keybored, Kwame, and Aaron from Texas were a few of them. I was sorry to see them go. Tim was my favorite and he rarely stops by.

    You know that Corey and Robbie are not Democrsts. They just hate Trump so much that they think every Republucan should be repulsed as much as they are.

    I think that many people here are making the mistake that because they like or tolerate Trump that many will vote like they do. I think the Trump-haters are making the same mistake. We get the answer next Tuesday.

  666. Tina says:

    ng
    @athein1
    57m
    Replying to @athein1
    Observations: Rs outperforming Ds in terms of comparison to 2016 in all categories, except in-person Washoe. Rs outperforming Ds in Clark. Rs outperforming Ds in Absentees everywhere. Rurals outperforming urbans. This boasts well for a R win.
    View conversation ·

  667. Phil says:

    I think Heller wins by a couple of points. More and more confident on that one.

  668. Tina says:

    Phil, I have it at Heller plus 3.

    Your 2 pt margin seems reasonable.

  669. DW says:

    Brat catching up now in Siena poll of VA_07.

  670. Tina says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/benandjerrys/status/1057286825780436992

    There is Jebot ice cream for sale now.

    All they need is a dedicated space to eat it, assuming they buy it.

  671. Phil says:

    Heller is a survivor, Tina. He’ll make it I’m sure.

  672. Tina says:

    Yes a survivor and a genuine nice person.

  673. NYCmike says:

    https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/10/30/why-not-mexico-barbra-streisand-might-move-to-canada-if-the-midterms-dont-go-her-way/

    -Is there nothing that Trump can’t do?

    “CG”, isn’t this worth a change of heart, to vote for Trump in exchange for Babs leaving?

    Although, I do love this song…. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmxCPkvaszs

  674. mnw says:

    NC-09

    NYT/Siena has it Harris (R) +1. NYT/Siena previous poll had Harris (R) +4, so they re-polled it, for reasons DW has explained repeatedly.

  675. NYCmike says:

    DCC

  676. mnw says:

    TN SEN:

    CLF’s Bredesen grandslam:

    https://youtu.be/5t3i8K5lkDU

  677. ReadyFirst says:

    698. NYC, just saw the new version with Bradley Cooper. Good movie. I prefer this to babs.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Anp6lGHKZw0

  678. Mr.Vito says:

    GOP won Washoe today by a smidgen.

  679. ReadyFirst says:

    I’m just the FNG, not my place to say who should post here. I will say, one of the aforementioned is way more annoying than any other here, and while I scroll past his diatribes, I do pity him a bit as he obviously has a screw loose.

  680. NYCmike says:

    Ready,

    Thanks, my wife was interested, we will have to get out and see it.

    I like both of them so it should be good.

  681. dblaikie says:

    DW Frankly I have come to mistrust all the polls from Siena and, yes, bitter that includes the ones where the GOP is in the lead. It seems like a phony gimmick to me this being able to watch while only 1 in 100 answer the phone. Mostly, though, why should I believe that anything the NYT is behind isn’t part of a narrative that supports their prior conclusions.

  682. Paul says:

    690: I’m a liberal troll too, but I’ve been just skimming through the posts lately. Trolling is too much work and Soros is sending all of his money to Honduras.

  683. Mr.Vito says:

    Worthless poll in Kansas 2 from Siena.

    41-37 D with 15% undecided

    and apparently 7% of the vote disappearing into the ether…

  684. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – It is a great movie. I was shocked that Lady Gaga is a great actress. She will probably win Best Actress. Bradley Cooper can sing and will get at least an Oscar nomination.

  685. MichiganGuy says:

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports
    17m17 minutes ago

    Near-tie in Washoe early voting for second day in a row. Dems won by a little.
    October 30, 2018
    Democratic – 2,890
    Republican – 2,873
    Nonpartisan – 1,717
    Total – 7,480

    GOP won absentees by 100, so Dems overall lead there is 700 ballots in county where GOP has 2 % reg edge.

  686. dblaikie says:

    Boy are the Cow Counties coming through in Nevada. I was born and raised in Carson City and I can tell the Democratic machine in Las Vegas is facing the red wrath of a new Sagebrush Rebellion. Let’s put it in Tolkien speak: the Cow Counties are the hobbits in the Shire. Las Vegas is Mordor. The democratic ring is about to be sent into the fires of the famous 40 mile desert that wrecked havoc with the westward bound settlers.

  687. Bitterlaw says:

    So Ben and Jerry’s has liberal ice cream and FedEx drops discounts for NRA members.

    Zzzzzzzzzzz

    Let the marketplace sort out whether they made the right choice for their businesses.

    Before Janz and NYC tell me to take a stand, I am taking a stand. I support the right of businesses to do things that I don’t agree with themdoing because that is their right.

  688. ReadyFirst says:

    710. Bitter, you nailed it. Gaga can act and Cooper can sing, who knew. Touching movie, won’t say more so as not to ruin it.

  689. RB says:

    Churchill, Douglass, Elko, Nye and Lyon keeping tne GOP in the game in NV

    Carson City somewhat too but that county is more even than the lopsided 5 above

    So with a net small win(with absentees)out of Washue…the GOP needs the rurals to come through agan

  690. MichiganGuy says:

    dblaikie, let’s hope they come through on election day also, right now I believe dems have around 29,000 vote firewall in Clark county.

  691. dblaikie says:

    Michigan Guy I believe they will. The Cow Counties of Nevada are people who detest large Government. It is about as red as you can get outside of some counties in Alabama. Just for your information I used the term “Sagebrush Rebellion”. That was an outpouring of hatred against the BLM for dominating all the land in the Silver State. But more than the non party people in Lyon and Douglas are not liberal in any sense. They have a deep libertarian streak in them. They mistrust the GOP, they hate the Dems. and they are always happy to cast a vote for a unique offering in Nevada — none of the above.

    In short the independents will break for the GOP in Northern Nevada (everywhere but Clark) big time.

  692. Mr.Vito says:

    Ralston can keep calling that a firewall all he wants, but 2/3 of it has already been hosed down.

  693. Wes says:

    Do we know Bradley Cooper is actually singing in the new movie? Movies have been known to dub over tone deaf actors before.

  694. Wes says:

    Here’s a radical thought:

    What if Republicans save critical House seats and maintain their majority there via their strong efforts in the Senate?

  695. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito, Ralston says dems are up 11,200 statewide. How does that compare to 2014 & 2016?

  696. Bitterlaw says:

    If he is not singing then he lip syncs well. A song from the movie is playing on radio these days.

  697. Wes says:

    I must say Mark Harris has impressed me with his strong campaign. I’m now giving him a slight edge in his race. Harris is neither the best candidate nor the best fit for the district; however, he has campaigned mightily for the seat and gained momentum at the right time. Kudos to him.

  698. Wes says:

    I’m not saying Cooper isn’t singing, Bitter. I’m just saying actors who appear to be singing aren’t always the ones whose voices we hear.

  699. NYCmike says:

    I liked him in American Sniper.

    Thanks for the good reviews to see the movie. My wife will probably enjoy it, especially when I am singing along with them in the theater. 🙂

  700. ReadyFirst says:

    719. Wes, he’s credited as the singer on the official video, so I assume unless its a Milli Vanilli….?

  701. Mr.Vito says:

    more than 30000 in 2012 and 2016…

    2014 isn’t comparable because turnout has been like a presidential year.

  702. Wes says:

    Fair enough, RF.

  703. MichiganGuy says:

    I have no doubt Republicans will pick up at least 5 Senate seats:
    .
    North Dakota
    Indiana
    Missouri
    Montana
    Florida
    .
    I’m less sure about holding Nevada.
    Hoping for a surprise in New Jersey and Minnesota but, no holding my breath.

  704. Wes says:

    Were I Rick Scott I’d make sure all Floridians know exactly what Nelson said.

  705. MichiganGuy says:

    #728 that is good to hear so, it look like Heller is in good shape.

  706. Mr.Vito says:

    “more than 30000 in 2012 and 2016…”

    just to this point… it kept growing closer to 50000

  707. Wes says:

    The article says the Nelson campaign did not immediately answer a request for a comment on the Senator’s remarks. That usually means the candidate has made a gaffe.

  708. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito, well they will not get anywhere near that this year.

  709. ReadyFirst says:

    Hoping so much to get rid of Nelson! Completely useless. He was my Congressman before Senator. Other than get a boondoggle ride on the Shuttle, he’s just a rubber stamp.

  710. Wes says:

    Well, Scott has Nelson unhinged, RF. That’s a good sign.

  711. NYCmike says:

    https://althouse.blogspot.com/2018/10/blame-trump-and-trump-blames-you.html

    -“They want you to stop fighting them with vigor, and they have no intention of stopping fighting you. Trump obviously know this and can’t be played.”

    Althouse gets what “CG” and Robbie don’t.

  712. ReadyFirst says:

    If Scott loses, it won’t be from lack of trying. He’s everywhere personally and His ads are what impressed me the most. Hard Hitting on certain stations like Fox and a completely different touchy feely set running on stations like HGTV etc. He was in the 60’s for approval for how he handled the most recent Hurricane.

  713. NYCmike says:

    https://spectator.us/beto-orourkes-wife-billionaire/

    -I don’t excuse the media for missing this, and I damn sure don’t excuse the Cruz campaign for missing it…..unless it was them who finally got this out now.

  714. ReadyFirst says:

    737. I think that’s why Nelsons handlers cancelled the last debate. Scott had him looking like a fumbling old fool at times. Bad optics.

  715. MichiganGuy says:

    RF, and having the former Governor of Puerto Rico endorse him was a nice touch.

  716. MichiganGuy says:

    Mike, I wonder if some of those millions of dollars Beto has raise came directly or indirectly from his father-in-law?

  717. Mr.Vito says:

    hmmmm… okay….

    so here are the results of ballots returned through 10/29 in the GOP California seats considered in play

    CA10 R+1%
    CA25 R+6%
    CA39 R+15%
    CA45 R+14%
    CA48 R+14%
    CA49 R+8%
    CA50 R+21%

  718. ReadyFirst says:

    MG- and 59 other Puerto Rican Pols. This, and my other reasons above, are why I think Scotts chances are better than Desantis’ this year. He’s run a better campaign.

    https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/01/puerto-ricos-governor-endorses-bill-nelson-rick-scott-responds-with-60-local-officials/

  719. RB says:

    GOP netted about 500 from Douglas and Nye(early vote only…didn’t look like those counties absentees were updated)

  720. MichiganGuy says:

    RF, Puerto Rico’s current Governor isn’t very popular:

    Approve 38%
    Disapprove 29%
    Not sure 27%
    Would not answer 6%
    .
    Also his endorsement looks like a halfhearted one:

    “This decision was a tough decision for myself,” Rosselló said at a press conference in Orlando. “I had to evaluate through a process. I have to establish that Governor Scott has also been a friend.”

  721. MichiganGuy says:

    RB, they just updated the Nevada Early Voting.
    .
    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

  722. dblaikie says:

    GOP won Washoe when absentees are figured in by around 90 votes. Another huge day in Douglas as the Cow County wall destruction unit continues to do its work. Looks like more good news for Laxalt and Heller.

  723. Mr.Vito says:

    so here are the results of ballots returned through 10/29 in the GOP California seats considered in play

    CA10 R+1%
    CA25 R+6%
    CA39 R+15%
    CA45 R+14%
    CA48 R+14%
    CA49 R+8%
    CA50 R+21%

    ………………

    and in each of these, at least 52% of primary ballots were cast for the GOP, except CA49, which had 48%.

  724. michael corleone says:

    #751 – I am unfortunately ready for the blue wave and expect those VBM margins to deteriorate every day as Election Day approaches. And if they don’t, we are still losing because almost all indies and like half the GOPers are voting D or something.

  725. Mr.Vito says:

    Well, it could happen, but if I’m the GOP, I’d rather be looking at these numbers now, than be the Dems hoping those assumptions are correct.

  726. Mr.Vito says:

    As I said, one side or the other is probably going to be very disappointed on election day.

  727. ReadyFirst says:

    Agreed Vito, time will tell. But if GOPers are angry at their party, they just stay home, they don’t come out in record numbers to vote for the other party. I don’t think that new found pollster excuse hunts. I am however more concerned with the indies. Again, time will tell, but no way are we losing all the indies and I assume that comment is hyperbole on MCs part. After this Sunday, it will be pretty hard for a blue wave to materialize as roughly 60% of the votes will already be cast.

  728. michael corleone says:

    755 – yes my comment was hyperbolic but three things are scaring me and I fear the bottom is dropping out of the GOP and our momentum was front loaded in the EV.

    1. Tonight’s Siena polls – the House has really deteriorated in the last 48 hours.

    2. Amy Walters saying on Brett Baier that GOP consultants feel their momentum has been arrested.

    3. The AZ EV advantage has been getting cut every day fairly substantially. That coupled with the AZ polls showing a lead for the lunatic has me concerned. Relatedly, the VBM advantage in CA 49 has deteriorated since Thursday (perhaps expectedly since it was abnormally high).

    On the flip side:

    1. Even in AZ, the EV numbers are still strong and a 110k GOP ballot lead will be hard to make up.

    2. Democrat strength so far has been blunted in NV.

    3. FL and CA early vote looks great.

    4. High turnout in the rurals may be a harbinger that we will repeat 2016.

  729. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    751.

    CA49 R+8%
    CA50 R+21%

    #50: Looks like Duncan Hunter, as expected, will win over his extremist opponent. He is in big trouble legally, and doubt he will serve a full two year term.

    #49: Said it before, and will say it again, don’t write off the Republican Harkey in this race. She may win. Issa had a lot of baggage that almost got him defeated in 2016.

  730. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like 2449 gain out of Clark early vote today.

  731. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    756. “the VBM advantage in CA 49 has deteriorated since Thursday,”

    Keep in mind the Republican badly trailed in many polls, and Harkey has all but been written off as political toast. She may still loss, but an 8% leader in VBM is a positive sign.

  732. Mr.Vito says:

    The Siena polls?

    I dunno. At the moment, Rossi is winning, Rohrabacher is winning, Brat is winning, Walters cut the deficit to 3. Collins, Fitzpatrick, Harris, and Knight came out ahead in their polls. The Kansas poll only has 78% of the electorate decided, and the GOP is +5 on that one to house preference.

    That leaves Sessions, Blum, and Handel.

    Blum is assumed gone, but is down eight right now in that poll… the previous Siena poll he lost by 14.

    The other two are real early and I think will flip before its done.

  733. Mr.Vito says:

    Oh, I forgot Lance in New Jersey… meh… I dunno. The poll is 56% women… Lance leads with boomers and seniors, and 15% of them are listed as undecided. Could still turn… I guess one of them had to look bad.

  734. dblaikie says:

    Just to give you folks some perspective in 2016 the so called Clark County Wall was well over 70000 votes. The total early vote with all counties was 48000 dem advantage. So this year with 3 days left the difference is around 11000. Quite a difference. This year we are talking about the Clark county picket fence.

  735. Tina says:

    Military Times
    @MilitaryTimes
    Follow
    5 freed from Gitmo in exchange for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl have joined insurgents in Qatar, the Taliban says. bit.ly/2DdYtm3 pic.twitter.com/TNkbhw39iS
    1

    Way to go Obumbler.

  736. EML says:

    Morning ballot drop from Florida is in. Republicans slightly increase overall lead by 850 ballots to nearly 63K Didn’t quite pass Democrats in early in person voting.

  737. Todd McCain says:

    Seems like the GOP rebounded somewhat in the NYT Siena polling. Been saying ND, MO and IN; I do think McSally is stumbling towards the finish line, but the 110,000 GOP ballot lead should be enough but if there is anyone from AZ, let me know what you think. I personally don’t ever bet against Rick Scott.

  738. Todd McCain says:

    Trump is going to Montana yet again so obviously RNSC is seeing the same close race we are.

  739. hugh says:

    Fox News tries to always be a little right of the other stations, which is dragging them left as the other stations become more radical. Fox’s comments on this election are pathetic and their news sections may start losing viewers. fox business is better

  740. Todd McCain says:

    Yep, GOP ahead almost 63K in Florida.

  741. Tina says:

    Other than the Faux and ?Friends program, the rest of Faux News is sheot.

    This includes Hannity Interuptus.

    You cannot build a brand with the likes of Meyhem Kelly (departed), Geraldine Rivera, and Shepardly cnn lite Smith.

  742. JeffP says:

    Final RAS Generic D +3…

    Not enough for D flip if true. No blue wave. House stays R.

  743. Bitterlaw says:

    I will hold out hope on PA-05. Pearl Kim is an outstanding candidate. Mary Gay Scanlon is a tired lib. Unfortunately, Kim is hampered by the new district lines and the white hot Trump hatred in the suburbs here. I wish that the GOP had run Kim against Bob Casey in the Senate.

  744. Todd McCain says:

    Ipsos/Reuters:

    McSally +2

  745. RB says:

    So the Dems picked up about 2500 from Clark and lead the week by about 8,500..,

    The rurals coming today could maybe net 1,000…which would give the Dems a 7,500 vote lead for the week and about 12,000 overall…

    Hoping trends continue Wed and Thurs

    Fri could be a mess though…we’ll see

  746. dblaikie says:

    The biggest surprise for me in Trump’s last week of rallies is his going to West Virginia. That coupled with the fact that Mitch McConnell poured in 700000.00 into the state tells me that the Senate race is a lot closer than people like us think. With those two facts it makes me at least, no surprise, question so many of these polling units of the media and academia. Oh well, we will find out next Tuesday night.

  747. Todd McCain says:

    776. I wouldn’t be surprised if this race was indeed close; equally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Manchin won by 10….

  748. RB says:

    Stirewalt said Fox has some battkegrounds coming this week…we already know Marist is dropping a MO and FL(with their new probability methodolgy which includes all responses but weights each response to the more or less likely the voter wil actually vote)

  749. jaichind says:

    Perhaps the WV rallies are not about the Senate race but to make sure the WV-3 do not split away. On the other hand the rallies schedule seems to have a more Senate bias to them. I guess the WH is planning on a narrative post-election “Do not look at the House results, we gained X seats in the Senate, Trump wins again”

  750. RB says:

    The house is trickier for Trump to have rallies…GOP vulnerabilities seem to be in NJ, NY, Philly Burbs, Cali, and Chicago Burbs…

    The one thought i would have is to put him in MI where he can help a Senate seat and a couple of house seats

  751. Phil says:

    Everyone in the media keeps drooling over the Beto candidacy. Just an observation from on the ground here. Cruz has run a really solid campaign. His ads have been really good and he’s raised plenty of money – enough to match Beto’s on the air bad blitz. Mostly though, his ads have defined Beto as the California style liberal that he is. Beto has helped out there in that regard by absolutely running as the loon he is. Unlike Manchin, Sky Queen, the Arizona loon….he hasn’t even attempted to mask who he really is. Doesn’t play here unless he were running for mayor of Austin.

  752. jason says:

    I am sure Proud ObamaCon is heading over to save his socialist paradise.

    At Instapundit:

    “Latin America in Fresh Crisis Talks as Millions Flee Venezuela. “Ecuador’s government said it would extend until Nov. 30 a ‘humanitarian emergency’ in the most affected areas, including regions on the Colombian and Peruvian borders, and the capital Quito. Ecuador expelled Venezuela’s ambassador this month, after Venezuela accused Quito of lying about the extent of migration. The two countries were close allies until relations broke down this year.”

    Weird how no one ever tries breaking into a workers’ paradise”

  753. Phil says:

    Penn and Glover have been rather quiet over their love affair with Venezuela over the just three years. Wonder why that is?

  754. Chicon says:

    Saw several posts yesterday to the effect that the House will be close either way, and the outcome doesn’t matter much since nothing will get accomplished in a closely divided House.

    It matters. Who wants Schiff running Nunes’s committee? Not I…

  755. mnw says:

    774

    The same Ipsos/Reuters poll that has McSally +2 also has Nelson +4 or +5 & Gillum +8 in FL, going by memory.

  756. DW says:

    wow—3289 calls made by Siena in WA_08, and they got 16 people to answer.

  757. Cash Cow TM says:

    I think Cook has it about right her in WV..
    I have said the end will be Manchin by 5-8 pts.
    🙁
    ############################################

    “CHARLESTON, W.Va. — One political analyst says U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., is likely to beat his Republican challenger, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, in this year’s Senate contest.”
    ….
    “I do not run into a lot of people who think that Republicans have a chance here,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the Cook Political Report.

    “Eight, 9 (percentage points),” Duffy said of Manchin’s lead based on the data she has reviewed. “On a good night, he’ll crack 10.”

    Duffy, however, said Morrisey has not made a profound argument for voters to support him.

    “To even look at Morrisey’s advertising is interesting,” she noted. “He’s still rallying the base, and he should be beyond that at this point.”

    http://wvmetronews.com/2018/10/30/analyst-manchin-likely-to-win-us-senate-contest/

  758. mnw says:

    Google will not permit Blackburn campaign ads, in which protesters interrupt her moment of silence for the synagogue shooting victims, because the ad is deemed “too shocking” by Google.

    I’m not in the market for hymns of praise about the importance of America’s “free press,” given the “de-platforming” movement– which shuts out even GOP campaign ads.

  759. Skippy says:

    There is becoming strong evidence that the Non-Aflliated/INDY voters are breaking heavily for the Democrats in 2018 Midterm Elections. We are seeing it in Florida, throughout the Midwest and I’m guessing we will see it out West as well..including Montana.

    My final prediction:

    Dems gain 34 seats in the House.
    Reps gain 3 seats in the Senate.

  760. Todd McCain says:

    Sounds reasonable; I think DEMS just get what they need, 25-27.

  761. Skippy says:

    It won’t take us long to find out if Non-Affliated/INDY voters are breaking heavily for the Democrats. If we see Nelson up 3-4 points in Florida with 82% of the precincts in early in the night will know the pollsters nailed these Non-Affliated/INDY voters. I don’t think this will become a base vs base election, unfortunately.

  762. DW says:

    789 – do you have a link to your strong evidence?

    I would tend to think the typical Indy is going to think of his or her swelling 401k, and then as this voter steps into the privacy of the booth, James Carville will whisper into the ear, ‘its the economy, stupid.’

    If we were seeing non-affiliated/indy voters going hard left, then Dino Rossi wouldn’t be competitive in WA_08. Salazar wouldn’t be making a strong play for FL_27. Many other seats tell a similar story in the polling.

  763. Jayhawker says:

    #789, What is the evidence that this is occurring?

  764. Jayhawker says:

    For Nevada, it is important to keep in mind that in most elections the Democrats have a better first week in Early Voting than in the second week. I would expect by the end of the week that their lead in early voting will be under their margin they had in the first week, so under 4k.

  765. Hugh says:

    I think indies tend to break with the party with the most enthusiasm and that is with gop already proven by Ev. Also look at the ages of the early voters. They are old

  766. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #789
    “There is becoming strong evidence that the Indies are breaking Heavily for the Democrats…”
    And what is your “strong evidence”?

    Your “strong evidence” flies in the face of the just-released YouGov/Economist Weekly Tracking Poll which shows:
    1) A 5 pt. Generic Congressional Ballot lead for Democrats
    2) The GOP +5 with Independents in the poll
    3) A D+5 PID
    4) Trump’s approval/ disapproval unchenged from the prior week at 44/52, respectively

    I look forward to your follow-up on your grandiose claim of “strong evedence”.

  767. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #796
    3) s/b D+7

  768. mnw says:

    RAS today

    Trump JA 49/50.

  769. mnw says:

    RE: RAS GCB = DEM +3

    Same as last week, btw.

  770. Jayhawker says:

    Leaving polls aside, I see evidence of Democrats having to pour money into elections that were once considered shoe ins for them, such as NJ, MI, WV and the Minnesota Special election.

    My first read is that Republicans win all of their seats, per early voting numbers. Only thing that could throw that off is if Indies break for the Dems, which per the increase in Trump’s approval rating as of late and historical norms, is not happening. Anything else is wishful thinking for the Democratic party. I see no hard evidence of this happening.

    I see the Republicans picking up ND, MO, IN and FL. Florida is from early voting numbers. Democrats should be outperforming where they are in the total combined vote at this point in the season. They are running out of time and the Panhandle vote is starting to come in, just like the 2016 election night.

    This would be a net of 4 seats.

    I think there is a better than 50% chance of Tester losing in MT based on early voting patterns, which granted shows only which counties the Ballots are returned from and does not provide a partisan breakdown.

    I would rate WV as even odds at this point. I think that Manchin bought a temporary respite with his yes vote. However the fact that he was the only one, probably only did so because it was an election year and the fact that he waited until the last minute to announce his vote really did some lasting damage. It is a fact that he is still liked in WV, but people will still vote against people they like if they don’t have confidence in him.

    I think NJ there is a slight chance, but polling always over represents Republican state vote percentages. Plus it is NJ, one of the most corrupt states, so the legal woes of Dem isn’t as big of deal there as it would be in other parts of the country.

    I would actually rate the Minnesota special election as a better chance than NJ, as if people like my Dad’s side of the family is voting Republican, at least for some races, than the rural vote is going hugely against the DFL this year. I think the Republicans may lose at most one house seat but picks up two in MN.

    Other seats the Republicans have a better than 0% chance at are MI, WI, OH and PA.

    Seats that will be closer than anyone thought, RI, MA, ME and NM.

    In closing, with Trumps approval rating going up, I don’t see Independents breaking the Dem’s way, especially with how unhinged they have become. Their mask has slipped and the Media’s ability to hide the slippage has been greatly diminished as of late.

  771. Phil says:

    Would be nice to have a poll out of Mo or Nevada. All we get are polls out of Florida and of course they will continue to poll Texas until they get Beto close.

  772. Chicon says:

    I believe DW made this point….

    The Dems seem less enthusiastic in EV, yet there’s a bunch of Republicans and Indy’s all fired up to give the House to Pelosi? I guess it could happen, but it seems a tad convoluted.

  773. dblaikie says:

    All of you posters who are driveling about the how the idies are breaking dem. are simply repeating the desperate mantra of the media and their talking heads.

    Frankly this kind of talk is burdensome. But even worse is this talk of droves of massive early GOP votes are actually filled with people switching their votes to Dem. My answer is that you can’t have it both ways! You can’t find in your polls that Trump has over 90% GOP support and then claim that a large percentage of GOP women are switching.

    Bottom line, just like 2016 when we were told that all women hated Trump (remember), the reality was that the majority of married women like him. The same will be true next Tuesday.

  774. Redmen4ever says:

    Why are the and university media polls focused on AZ and FL Senate races and not, e.g., MO?

    They’ve fallen back. AZ and FL are their present line of defense.

    We will hold the Senate, the only question is how big will our gain be? I can’t say this about the House. The other side will make gains in the House. The only question is how big will their gain be?

  775. mnw says:

    Jayhawker 800

    Are you in KS?

    If u r in KS, what are your observations about the KS GOV race?

  776. Skippy says:

    I could be wrong. But when I look at the Florida & Arizona Senate polls I see Non-Affliated/INDY breaking toward Nelson and Arizona Democrat Nut Job. I see the INDY voters breaking heavily toward Democrats in Minnesota House races in MN 2 & MN 3.

    If we see Scott running dead even with Nelson with 82% of the vote cast in Florida on Tuesday night then the INDY didn’t break with the Democrats and I will be the first one to say I was wrong.

    Praying that I’m wrong. But there is evidence out there that the voters, who are not base voters, are breaking against the GOP.

  777. dblaikie says:

    In this last week it is important to look at stuff beyond the polls. Particularly following where the money is going and where the heavy weights are going.

    Now I may be wrong but I feel it is huge that Trump is not going to Nevada or Arizona. Three choices:
    1. He feels the Senate seats are gone.
    2. He feels the Senate seats are safe enough that he can go to other places.
    3. He feels the Senate seats in Nevada and Arizona are as important as the seats in Mo and Ten.

    You go ahead and pick which one is the obvious.

  778. Redmen4ever says:

    800 – I don’t think PA Senate is close to a non-zero chance. But, your point about NM Senate is absolutely on target. Martin Heinrich is at 40, and Gary Johnson has fallen out of contention. Mick Rich could gain enough from strategic voting to win.

  779. dblaikie says:

    Of course I meant not as important

  780. dblaikie says:

    Skippy I keep on hearing you saying, “I see”? What do you see? Have you seen and have privy to the internals. What particular data are seeing, please share it with us. If not, please shut up!

  781. mnw says:

    807 dbl

    Trump could’ve consulted with the McSally & Heller campaigns, & decided another rally in those states might do more harm than good at this point. That is another possibility.

  782. michael corleone says:

    807 – option 4: Given the purple nature of those states, he thinks his presence could backfire and is better used in Redder areas.

  783. Chicon says:

    807 – largely agree, but I’ll add #4. Trump may have determined that he would not help much in those races.

  784. Phil says:

    As far as Florida goes, don’t count out Rick Scott. He was our best senate recruit, and has run a really solid campaign. We could win that one.

    I like Heller in Nevada. He’s a survivor and has run a solid campaign. I don’t know what to think about Arizona. Polls all over the place.

    Texas and Tennessee are on the same level as each other. Both will out of play. Always were MSM wishful thinking.

    Missouri and Indiana – very little polling. Want to see more. My gut says we are ok there, but want to see more.

    Even Silver has finally given up on Heidi.

  785. Jayhawker says:

    #805

    I used to live in Lawrence for work at KU. I got my advanced degree there. I used to have lots of friends there even though I was one of the only conservatives they knew. Now on facebook they rant about how conservatives are going out of their way to insult and hurt them. This is from professors who I could have had a talk with about it and if things got heated, they didn’t hold grudges. Now it is impossible.

    I live in the Wichita area now. I live in the burbs, but I saw my first Kelly sign the other day. For awhile I thought it was just Kobach and Orman running. Kelly signs are like these cheap plastic things.

    I think Kobach will win, but by how much depends on Mr. Bob Dole. Kobach would have one the primary in a cakewalk but Bob Dole cut a robocall for Colyer which hit three days before the election. Trumps robocall for Kobach hit the day of the election. I think that is what lead to the weirdest vote pattern I have ever seen on the map about who won what county. And Colyer winning the EV and Kobach winning the election day vote.

    Bob Dole and Trump are probably the only two politicians who can move the needle at all in Kansas at this point.

    If Bob Dole endorses Kelly all bets are off, but I don’t think that will happen.

    You have to keep in mind that there are really three parties in Kansas. The Conservative Republicans, the Moderate Republicans and the Democrats. The Conservative Republicans are increasing in power. I think in 2014 the conservative republicans went primary hunting and killed the moderate republicans in that State Legislature, at least a great many of them and still won their seats in the general election. Brownback was an idiot who really was pro open borders while Kobach is a closed border guy which the moderates and Democrats hate. Kansas polling tends to under report republican support by a decent amount.

    I think KS-2 is safe and KS-3 which is a moderate republican seat is a toss up because I just don’t know about the KC suburbs anymore.

  786. Skippy says:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Florida_October_23_2018.pdf

    Pretty much all the polls are showing Democrats with a decisive advantage with the Non-Affiliated/INDY voters.

    My prediction is just based on what I’m seeing with all the available information. Some of you are actually taking my prediction personally, which is ridiculous.

    Relax.

  787. Albert Hodges says:

    I give this place credit, it has a higher IQ level of troll than other places.

    There is NO REASON on God’s green Earth to think that either sizable numbers of GOPers are voting DEM or that INDIES are breaking largely to the DEMS.

    These are lies and spins.

    Many Republicans didnt like Trump in 2016,, but they HATED Hillary. Anyone who thinks that disgruntled Republicans in 2018 are so mad at Trump that they are going to rush to the polls to vote DEM are stupid. Pure and simple.

    And even if the Indies break toward the DEMS (which would be case by case and not a monolithic movement) may be right on some cases…but Enema? Gillum? Again just stupid.

    I think, however, these trolls here are not stupid but are simply looking at the polls and seeing what races are close and then exploiting that to yank chains on this site.

    Just my thoughts.

  788. Todd McCain says:

    We have no shot in PA; Casey has that seat for life.

  789. Skippy says:

    For the guy who wants me to shut up…

    Here is another one for you.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-flsen-3.html

    If this midterm was base vs base I would be feeling pretty good about GOP retaining the House and gaining more than 3 in the Senate.

    However, the story of the night won’t be base vs base turnout. It will be how the Non-Affiliated/INDY voter broke with the Democrats in large part.

    Much like how this same group of voters broke with GOP in 2010.

    Because the GOP has come out in 2018 it will keep the House gains for the Democrats below the 40’s.

    In my opinion, of course.

  790. mnw says:

    Jayhawker

    Thx.

  791. Todd McCain says:

    One thing about Heller is that despite the massive DEM firewall in Clark of 70K plus, he still won.

  792. Phil says:

    821

    That is a very telling point.

  793. Skippy says:

    I’m not a troll. Just giving an educated opinion on what I’m seeing. Hopefully I’m wrong, and will be the first one to admit it on Tuesday night.

    Relax.

    Good grief.

  794. Todd McCain says:

    821. That obviously was 2012.

  795. Chicon says:

    819 – interesting point in that poll. 93% of Republicans will vote Republican, yet we keep reading (not from you) that EV #’s are wacky because R’s are voting for D’s.

  796. Hugh says:

    Here is the problem with the gravis poll And almost every other one out there it grossly over polls younger voters and is way under for older voters. That poll Is a complete farce. If you want you can look at the demographics of the early voting and compare it to the poll results they are not even in the same ballpark. Unfortunately the various pollsters have convinced themselves of a huge blue wave where lots of young voters come out to vote and older voters sit home. That is why these pollsters are all going to be in complete disgrace in another week.

  797. dblaikie says:

    Skippy I only said shut up if you have no data, because you have already stated your opinion. One data point you need to consider — any polling group that only polls registered voters in the last week of a campaign cycle has issues. In a best case scenario only about 60% of registered voters vote. That fact alone makes the poll useless 6 days before the election.

  798. Jayhawker says:

    #823

    You sound like a troll is what people are getting at.

    The basis of your educated belief is flawed polls. When other national polls, which according to poll theory, are actually more accurate as it is easier to get a representative sample, you ignore.

    That is why national polls tend to actually come closer to the truth than state polls as it is harder to get a representative sample.

    District polls are the hardest ones yet as you have to know all the quirks of each district and is quite hard to do.

    This is what I learned in statistics class anyway. It is one of those weird things like if you have like 50 people in a room, it is more likely than not that there is a shared birth date in the room, meaning day of the year.

    It is ok to say you have a feeling, but not I have all this data that backs me up, when all you have is reliable district and state polling that is flawed to begin with.

    That is why polling companies have hard times with certain states but can get better the more they learn from their poll, if they choose to.

    For my state, Independents in the KC suburbs certainly are not the same as rural Independents, medium town independents, independents from Wichita and independents from the Wichita suburbs.

  799. Waingro says:

    Uh oh.

    “Has Mueller Subpoenaed the President?

    A careful reading of court filings suggests the special counsel hasn’t been quiet. Far from it.”

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/31/has-robert-mueller-subpoenaed-trump-222060

  800. mnw says:

    Skippy

    I know trolls, & you are not even close to being one.

  801. Waingro says:

    Economist/yougov has CGB at D+5

  802. dblaikie says:

    Skippy since you cherry pick polls let me cherry pick one for you. The YOUGov poll is likely voters– a large sample — in the race for Governor they have 51% of indep. voting for DeSantis and 38% voting for Gillum. Here is the link: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/shtloc96e5/cbs_20181028_FL_final.pdf

  803. MichiganGuy says:

    “Findings from the survey indicate that millennial turnout may not be strong. Young voters are historically less likely to vote in midterm elections than presidential elections, and this year may not be an exception.”

    “The survey finds that millennials don’t feel represented by Congress, which could be a sign of election disengagement heading into November. Just thirty one percent of millennials say they will definitely vote in November, a number that has remained steady since August.”
    .
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/record-turnout-not-millennials-just-third-say-they-ll-vote-n926231
    —————————————————————————————————————
    The blue wave is now a blue ripple. LOL

  804. Waingro says:

    #833, MG: you think James has a shot in Mich? Would LOVE to pull off that upset. Shockwave City.

  805. MichiganGuy says:

    Waingro, no. Stabenow has all the advantages. Plenty of money, name recognition, political skills, etc. John James is still unknown to many voters. They may have seen a 30 second TV ad but, they don’t feel a connection to him. Michigan voters want someone they know and trust. James is a good candidate but, it took him to long to start raising the money you need to compete in a Senate race.

  806. Waingro says:

    #835, fair enough. Not gonna get my hopes up, as much as I would love to see it happen. I hope he runs again against Peters in 2020. Keep the momentum going.

  807. Skippy says:

    Florida 2016 Final VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 40.56%
    Democrats 38.43%

    Final 2016 VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +58,224

    Florida 2016 Final VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 38.34%
    Democrats 39.80%

    Final 2016 VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Democrats +96,450

    ————————

    Updated as of Wednesday morning:

    Florida 2018 Current VBM Percentages:

    Republicans 42.48%
    Democrats 39.09%

    Current Florida VBM Vote Margin:
    Republicans +65,402

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Percentages:

    Republicans 41.93%
    Democrats 40.09%

    Florida 2018 Current VBM + EV Vote Margin:
    Republicans +62,937

  808. Hugh says:

    833. Unfortunately per Chris Wallace says even though the gop is killing EV maybe suburban republicans are voting for democrats. Mmm. On what basis Chris? I say maybe more blacks are voting republican this time. Why can’t even fox cheerlead for us.

  809. jason says:

    However, the story of the night won’t be base vs base turnout. It will be how the Non-Affiliated/INDY voter broke with the Democrats in large part.”

    Based on what exactly Skippy, or are you just making that up.

  810. dblaikie says:

    Even Fox is afraid to change the narrative. How can the GOP doing better than expected by anyone in early voting some how be something negative for them. Again you can’t have it both ways. You can’t embrace polls which say that Trumps support in the GOP is passionate and then turn around and claim that a large number of suburban Republicans are voting for the Dems because they don’t like Trump.

  811. Waingro says:

    #840, I honestly think what they are trying to do is justify a lot of the garbage polling by “rationalizing” the EV. It’s lazy and gutless journalism.

    I look forward to a lot of people with egg ion their faces come Tuesday.

  812. jason says:

    I guess the NYT gave up on Beto and decided to come clean on him.

    From Redstate

    “We can talk about how the New York Times is “failing” all day, but one thing is for certain, and it’s that the Gray Lady is one of the most powerful and popular news organizations in the world.

    It’s tragic, then, that the paper is so biased in a leftist direction. It’s no fan of the GOP and makes it quite apparent. It absolutely loathes President Donald Trump to the point where it willingly publishes fictional stories that involve his assassination.

    So it was an absolute surprise to me that the NYT published a story about Democratic Texas candidate for Senate, Robert “Beto” O’Rourke, and his shady dealings during his time as an El Paso politician.

    The story, according to the New York Times, goes that while O’Rourke was on the El Paso city council he became involved with a land grab deal through the use of eminent domain that would steal away land from some of the poorest members of the community. The land would then be developed by the company, the Paso del Norte Group, on which his father-in-law served as a high ranking member. What’s more, O’Rourke’s own privately owned company, Stanton Street Technology Group, was providing technologies to his father-in-law’s company, further making this a lucrative deal for he and his family.

    The poorer residents of El Paso confronted O’Rourke during a town hall about the deal, who was put before the people as the “pretty face of this very ugly plan” according to local historian David Dorado Romo. Some of the footage of that town hall was dug up by the Cruz campaign, who used it in an ad that attacks O’Rourke for his actions.

    The entire episode culminated in a failed recall effort on O’Rourke led by a Democrat.

    Why didn’t the mainstream media report it up until now? The New York Times did the right thing by publishing this story in detail, and not only that, putting a human face on the story by highlighting some of the people who fought against O’Rourke’s land deal. Don’t get me wrong.

    But why did it take so long? The story has been circulating around for some time. In fact, one of the first times the public came to light was due to the story published right here on RedState by yours truly all the way back in August. Before that, Ken Webster Jr. of Houston radio station KPRC published the story as well, and that was all the way back in December of 2017.

    Despite the fact that this story is only popping up now in the mainstream, this story is over a decade old as these events took place in 2007/2008.

    This deal O’Rourke was a part of has all the hallmarks leftists hate. Here’s a rich white guy screwing over poor minorities in order to further enrich himself and his family. Yet, for the longest time, you couldn’t get a peep out of mainstream press outlets despite the fact that this story has been viewed thousands on thousands of times by readers.”

  813. jason says:

    Some of you are actually taking my prediction personally, which is ridiculous.

    Everything is personal here, Skippy.

    So GFY.

  814. Waingro says:

    BOOM.

    “Wages and salaries jump by 3.1%, highest level in a decade”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/wages-and-salaries-jump-by-3point1percent-highest-level-in-a-decade.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

  815. Skippy says:

    Jason,

    Yep, I’m just making it up.

    You feel better now?

  816. Waingro says:

    CNN rescue polls:

    Manu Raju
    ?Verified account @mkraju

    CNN POLL
    Oct 24-29
    ARIZONA

    Now Sept.
    Sinema 51% 50%
    McSally 47% 43%

    NEVADA
    Now Sept.
    Rosen 48% 47%
    Heller 45% 43%
    Hagan 2% 4%

  817. Chicon says:

    Skippy, Jason is the “get off my lawn” guy at HHR.

  818. mnw says:

    844 Wain

    I stopped posting economic news, which I used to do all the time, because I feel it’s too late now for it to have any impact on the GE next Tuesday.

  819. mnw says:

    846 Wain

    If those are “rescue polls”… they are showing movement toward the GOP, albeit slight.

  820. Waingro says:

    #849, true. But I’m the CNN spin will be the top lines, particularly Sinema who is over 50%.

  821. Waingro says:

    #850 *I’m sure

  822. RB says:

    Some more rurals came in, including Elko and Churchill and GOP netted + 570

    The 2 bigger ones yet to come in are Carson City which is a 55/45 or so county and Lyon which is heavy GOP

  823. Skippy says:

    I could be wrong. Maybe all these polls that have the Non-Affiliated/INDY voters breaking toward the Democrats are wrong. The Arizona-Senate Poll that was just released is another example.

    But to point this out, and to be called a troll for simply pointing this out and using the info for a prediction…is ridiculous.

    Even with all this I still believe GOP gains 3 seats in the Senate. But Dems will gain about 34 seats in the House.

  824. Scooterboy says:

    Schweikart tweeted that Repubs in Arizona are kicking ass. He said that’s all he can say at the moment.

    Larry is either gonna look like a genius, or end up with much egg on his face.

  825. Mr.Vito says:

    “Our state director is Indian American, but he does an amazing job,” Donnelly said during the debate. “Our director of all constituent services — she’s African American, but she does an even more incredible job than you could ever imagine.”

    Joe Donnelly

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dem-sen-joe-donnelly-takes-heat-for-awkward-comment-on-hiring-minority-staffers-says-he-misspoke

  826. dblaikie says:

    Cherry picking again.

  827. Mr.Vito says:

    Report: Fewest attack ads on sitting President since 2002.

    ………..

    I guess they aren’t needed when the media is doing the dirty work.

  828. Mr.Vito says:

    Ryan Saavedra
    ?Verified account @RealSaavedra

    CNN’s Don Lemon: “We have to stop demonizing people and realize the biggest terror threat in this country is white men, most of them radicalized to the right, and we have to start doing something about them.”

  829. Scooterboy says:

    Sorry if someone has already posted this. The Libertarian candidate in Montana Senate race has endorsed the Republican.

  830. BayernFan says:

    and several dem candidates are saying they support Trump

  831. Tom says:

    858. “We have to stop demonizing people” except white men. They’re fair game.

  832. NYCmike says:

    “But to point this out, and to be called a troll for simply pointing this out and using the info for a prediction…is ridiculous.”

    -Skippy,

    In your original comment, you gave no evidence for your “feelings”. That is why some people called you a troll.

    Present evidence with your ststements, and the likelihood of a discussion without silly words being bandied about goes up substantially.

  833. Robbie says:

    Hard to believe a grifter like Candace Owens would lie so blatantly. Is Jacob Wohl doing PR for her?

    Complex
    @Complex

    Kanye clarified via Twitter that he did not design Candace Owens’ new merch line “Blexit.”

    Owens issues apology to Ye, “I would like to publicly apologize to him for any undue stress or pain the effort to correct that rumor has caused him.”

  834. DW says:

    Not going to be able to post much between now and Monday. Keep in mind that all 7 of the 2014 and 2016 Siena polls of competitive house races in NY favored the Democrat against the final results–all 7. I doubt their new relationship with the NY Times has made them more R in their tilt.

  835. Robbie says:

    But I guess his career as a reality TV host who put multiple companies into bankruptcy means Trump does know something about birthright citizenship.

    This is an excellent message for the last week of the campaign. Fighting with your own party is the kind of 3D chess we’ve come to know and love from Mr. “But he fights”.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump

    Paul Ryan should be focusing on holding the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about! Our new Republican Majority will work on this, Closing the Immigration Loopholes and Securing our Border!

  836. Todd McCain says:

    BOOM; MU LAW:

    WALKER +3

  837. NYCmike says:

    Robbie goes with “grifter” Candace Owens.

    Todd McCain finds a “BOOM”.

    BUT, Robbie definitely does NOT want Pelosi to get the gavel.

  838. Phil says:

    The Marquette poll is the gold standard of Wisconsin polling.

  839. Mr.Vito says:

    So Brat was up one when Siena stopped polling last night. He is now down one though no more polling has been done.

    Fun.

  840. NYCmike says:

    Next time, Robbie, at least post the whole article about Owen’s apology to West, because in context, it is much different than a headline suggests.

  841. Robbie says:

    So, were any of you Trumpers one of the 17 morons who showed up to see the populist MAGAGod Steve Bannon rally the troops in Kansas?

    And to think, a year or so ago the Tea Party crowd in this forum was busy telling me Bannon was a genius.

    West Wing Reports
    @WestWingReport

    In deep red Kansas, 17 people showed up at a Topeka Holiday Inn to see Steve Bannon (free continental breakfast in the AM)

  842. Skippy says:

    Housley is going to run very strong on Tuesday.

    Democrats putting late money into Minnesota.

  843. CG says:

    They would have shown up for a free nationalist breakfast.

  844. Mr.Vito says:

    Wonder twins power… activate!

  845. CG says:

    The Topeka Holiday Inn actually thought it could get away with serving Canadian bacon and Huevos Rancheros at a MAGA event? Continental breakfast? The nerve!

  846. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:34 pm
    Robbie goes with “grifter” Candace Owens.
    Todd McCain finds a “BOOM”.
    BUT, Robbie definitely does NOT want Pelosi to get the gavel

    – Trumpism has definitely made you dumber. Calling out a fraud like Candace Owens or a dope like Jacob Wohl doesn’t mean I want Pelosi as Speaker. It means I’m sick and tired of conservatism being co-opted by cranks and grifters who prey on low information dolts for their support and money. But keep lying if it comforts you a week before Republicans are about to get their heads handed to them in the House.

  847. Phil says:

    ….and right on cue

    LOL

  848. Scooterboy says:

    Saw this tweet.

    Conservative leaning Milwaukee suburbs (key to swinging Wisconsin red), are outpacing 2016 EV while Milwaukee and Madison are below 2016 EV totals.

  849. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:36 pm
    Next time, Robbie, at least post the whole article about Owen’s apology to West, because in context, it is much different than a headline suggests.

    – Candance Owens is the perfect embodiment of a conservative grifter. I’m not the least bit surprised you would defend her.

  850. hugh says:

    saw this. I don’t know if it is true re cnn poll for AZ

    CNN poll is garbage. It has 25%r/25%d/49% other in a state that will normally vote 38r/34d/28o in a non-pres year

  851. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:40 pm
    Wonder twins power… activate!

    – Sock puppets for the con artist reality TV star … activate!

  852. CG says:

    The Candace Owens angle seems secondary. I don’t really even know whom she is.

    The bigger thing is that Kanye basically broke up on Twitter with Trump yesterday and made it clear his views were liberal. I’m not surprised at that, but some people here and elsewhere were speculating that Kanye could keynote the next GOP convention or help Trump win a majority of the black vote…

  853. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:42 pm
    ….and right on cue
    LOL

    – How dare I not share a MAGAriffic view of the current situation.

    Mocking Steve Bannon, Candace Owens, Jacob Wohl, and the rest of the conservative grifters who’ve led the party to the brink of disaster is both needed and fun.

  854. NYCmike says:

    “And to think, a year or so ago the Tea Party crowd in this forum was busy telling me Bannon was a genius.”

    -Would love to see that comment pulled from the archives to see which poster declared Bannon a genius.

  855. Phil says:

    Tag team champs.

    Candace Owens the troll talking point of the day.

  856. CG says:

    I was talking about Kanye.

    I don’t know who all these minor MAGA celebs on Twitter are.

  857. NYCmike says:

    “The bigger thing is that Kanye basically broke up on Twitter with Trump yesterday and made it clear his views were liberal.”

    -Post what he wrote, please.

    When I read an article, which included quotes from “Ye”, Kim K, and others, his politics was neither liberal, conservative, Republican nor Democratic.

    Maybe you read a different piece.

    Let’s see it.

  858. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:48 pm
    “And to think, a year or so ago the Tea Party crowd in this forum was busy telling me Bannon was a genius.”
    -Would love to see that comment pulled from the archives to see which poster declared Bannon a genius.

    – Umm, I don’t think you want to go down this road. When I wrote in March and April of 2017 Trump needed to get rid of Bannon ASAP, you were right there defending Bannon.

  859. lisab says:

    some people here and elsewhere were speculating that Kanye could keynote the next GOP convention
    ————-

    who said that?

  860. CG says:

    NYC, you can check out Kanye’s tweets from yesterday. I cannot open or link to Twitter from work. Or you can Google it.

    He said yesterday he was distancing himself from politics because he was used by others to advance causes he does not believe in. He expressed support for prison reform, gun control, and the Caravan in his Tweets as well.

  861. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:49 pm
    Tag team champs.
    Candace Owens the troll talking point of the day.

    – So now I’m a troll. Funny how the definition of troll tends to line up with whether or not someone agrees with the person screaming “troll”.

    I believe a few days ago you said you liked her? Why? She’s a grifter.

  862. NYCmike says:

    I may have defended Bannon, but I never called him a genius.

    You said “And to think, a year or so ago the Tea Party crowd in this forum was busy telling me Bannon was a genius.”

    Which is it? Somebody said he is a genius?

    Or you just made cr*p up again?

  863. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    Got it.

    Once again, you make statements, and insist they be taken as gospel-Truth, but refuse to give any evidence to back it up.

    Like a Democrat……

  864. CG says:

    NYC Google Kanye West’s Twitter to read his own words directly from that platform.

    Otherwise, I will post no fewer than 25 links to articles about it from yesterday and that will simply annoy everyone here because you are being lazy again.

    So, do you want me to do that? You will make the choice.

  865. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    I may have defended Bannon, but I never called him a genius.
    You said “And to think, a year or so ago the Tea Party crowd in this forum was busy telling me Bannon was a genius.”
    Which is it? Somebody said he is a genius?
    Or you just made cr*p up again?

    – I wasn’t directing the comment at you, but I do remember how you immediately sprang to white nationalist Steve Bannon’s defense when I said he was bad news.

    Strange how your first instinct is always to defend the human waste that associates itself with conservatism.

  866. NYCmike says:

    You made the assertion. Back it up.

    I am not lazy, I just don’t need to do your work for you.

    UNLESS, you really are a Democrat, and believe anything you say is gospel-Truth.

  867. Mr.Vito says:

    Just got a message on my cell…

    Hi, it’s Ralph Reed. Before you vote in FL, read and share our Faith & Freedom voter guide: FFCoalition.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-01-W.pdf

  868. NYCmike says:

    Robbie just removed me from “the Tea Party crowd”.

    How the heck does he get that power!?!?

  869. NYCmike says:

    “Strange how your first instinct is always to defend the human waste that associates itself with conservatism.”

    -YES, the person writing such statements is a very devout Roman Catholic individual……can’t you tell?

  870. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:03 pm
    Robbie just removed me from “the Tea Party crowd”.
    How the heck does he get that power!?!?

    – If was going to direct a comment at you, I would use your name. Kind of like when I mock you for supporting government shutdowns.

  871. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    Posting evidence vs statements with no evidence.

    If someone finds the former annoying, as opposed to the latter, that is their issue.

  872. Mr.Vito says:

    Take form of… Gelatinous blobbie

  873. CG says:

    NYC, I can see why you are only able to work for your family. Do you ever show any initiative for anything?

    I’m going to give you one more chance to either look this up for yourself or have me completely spam the blog with link after link for the next two hours to the story you don’t want to look up on your own.

    Is that what you want?

  874. NYCmike says:

    ” Kind of like when I mock you for supporting government shutdowns.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/13/politics/us-government-shutdowns-budget-chart/index.html

    -1980’s were a mocking-good-time!

  875. lisab says:

    He said yesterday he was distancing himself from politics because he was used by others to advance causes he does not believe in.
    ———————–

    i believe kanye said saomething like that

    but you said someone here at hhr said kanye would be the keynote speaker at the gop convention.

    who?

  876. NYCmike says:

    ” Do you ever show any initiative for anything?”

    -Initiative vs evidence?

    It is up to you.

    I have work to do, so I’ll check back in to see if you believe in evidence, or if you lean towards the Feinstein Method.

  877. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:05 pm
    Take form of… Gelatinous blobbie

    – Take form of … person who fell for conman routine

  878. NYCmike says:

    MD used to make fun of my family business.

    Now, “CG” has taken up the baton.

    We saw what happened to MD……

  879. NYCmike says:

    Perez Hilton to delete his online presence in 3….2…..1…..

  880. CG says:

    I am sure your family business is successful. You don’t seem to have much to do with it though. You would not be able to work for anyone else because you are coddled.

    Does your work server block Twitter like mine does? If so, just say so. Then, you can Google the Kanye story like anyone else would and read what he said yesterday on his Twitter. I think you are being a troll here today.

  881. Mr.Vito says:

    Take form of… Giant blue troll!

  882. Skippy says:

    Karin Housley
    @KarinHousley

    US Senate candidate, MN
    National Democrats just dumped another $700K in ads against me. We’ve made this a race—and they know it. Let’s. Do. This.

  883. phoenixrisen says:

    #866 —. Though Marquette is typically right on point in Wisconsin polling, they had Hillary at +8 in their final poll prior to Election Day. The Baldwin-Vukmir race could be much closer than what is being said given the EV totals thus far in WI. Walker probably wins by 7 onTuesday

  884. mnw says:

    859 Scooter

    RE: MT SEN/ Libertarian

    I’ve posted about that colorful old Libertarian dude before. Here are the takeaways:

    1) The DEMs collected the signatures to get him on the ballot. They did this boldly, & with no attempt to disguise their work. The DEMs also filed a successful lawsuit to get the Green candidate tossed off the ballot, because not enuf valid signatures.

    2) The Libertarian gut is about 70, & he’s tricked himself out to look uncannily like Buffalo Bill Cody.

    3) He skipped the recent debate, even though there was a podium there for him, so that he could go elk hunting.

    At this point, I suspect his late endorsement of Rosendale is worthless; that he’ll still get 3% or more of the vote; & that his presence on the ballot will likely still get Tester reelected.

  885. Jill says:

    The Wisconsin Governor’s poll by MU Law doesn’t show Walker up 3 points. It’s a tie at 47% each among likely voters. Now that may translate into a Walker win by 3+% (fingers crossed!) because the early vote there is looking strong for the GOP plus Walker has a fantastic GOTV system.

    https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1057684375146582016

  886. Phil says:

    914

    Good info, Phoenix. Didn’t realize they had that kind of a spread with Hillary.

  887. Todd McCain says:

    Its Walker +3 in RV and tie in LV; my mistake. Still considering Walker’s GOTV, I would rather be him.

  888. NYCmike says:

    “I am sure your family business is successful. You don’t seem to have much to do with it though. You would not be able to work for anyone else because you are coddled.”

    -Our business is successful because we sacrifice much time and energy to make sure our customers get results.

    Do I have little to do with it? Are you, “CG”, able to ascertain that from your perch in Illinois? That would be an amazing trick!

    As for being “coddled”, I am still waiting to see your evidence to back up your previous comments.

    Until then, the Feinstein Method is in affect.

  889. mnw says:

    915 sb “Libertarian guy,” not “gut.”

  890. CG says:

    So you want me to post 25 internet links from yesterday about Kanye West so that everyone has to scroll through them all?

    Why can’t you just look it up yourself. Why do you find it hard to believe that Kanye is pro-gun control and expressed support for the refugee caravan?

  891. NYCmike says:

    And as for being sure about success, I am not as confident as you are.

    Many times over the last 50 years, events have taken place which imperiled our business. Companies leave, get bought out, go bankrupt, change suppliers, lose business……NO GUARANTEES, my Illinois clairvoyant.

  892. CG says:

    922. Then, I am sure you agree with my long-distance impression that your dad and brothers are more industrious than you.

  893. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:12 pm
    Take form of… Giant blue troll!

    – Take form of … lifelong straight party Republican voter

    Oh wait, I’m already that since I’ve voted straight party Republican in every election in which I’ve been able to vote with the exception of 2016 when I voted for every Republican except for the conman Trump.

    You, if I’m not mistaken, aren’t even a registered Republican or you haven’t been until recently, correct?

  894. NYCmike says:

    Whatever, Feinstein Method guy.

    You made the statement about Kanye, not I.

    It is your choice to post what you want.

    When I make a statement, I usually post the main piece of evidence right away……but that is because I have a higher standard than Feinstein.

  895. CG says:

    Any business that has survived for 50 years has been successful, just like the one my grandfather and uncle founded 50 years ago this year.

  896. Mr.Vito says:

    Take form of… big blue wave!

  897. Mr.Vito says:

    Take form of… sniveling weasel!

  898. NYCmike says:

    “The bigger thing is that Kanye basically broke up on Twitter with Trump yesterday and made it clear his views were liberal.”

    -#1 of 50 backed up this statement in what way?

  899. mnw says:

    914 phoenix

    WI was the only state Larry Schweikart got wrong in 2016, so MU poll was not alone.

  900. NYCmike says:

    Of course, if I had 50 links, I would put them in one comment.

  901. CG says:

    Won’t let you put more than three in one comment (wisely) so this is all on you…

  902. Mr.Vito says:

    Posting 50 links is on the person that posts 50 links.

  903. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:23 pm
    Take form of… sniveling weasel!

    – Aww, poor liddle sock puppet. Hears things that he doesn’t agree with or like and he gets fussy.

  904. Mr.Vito says:

    Take form of… Dripping wet blanket!

  905. NYCmike says:

    I have looked at three links so far.

    NONE of them claim that Kanye said he was a liberal, and NOT a conservative.

    Especially in regards to prison reform, both he and Kim K have made some suggestions that deserve to be debated.

    I would not reflexively consider them liberal, or conservative.

  906. CG says:

    940. Be nice to him and his emotional support goldfish.

  907. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:24 pm
    Of course, if I had 50 links, I would put them in one comment.

    – I guess when you get owned you have to try and deflect.

  908. Robbie says:

    Mr.Vito says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:27 pm
    Take form of… Dripping wet blanket!

    – Take form of … gullible dupe who fell for the conman routine

  909. CG says:

    8 of 50

    https://wset.com/news/entertainment/kanye-my-eyes-are-now-wide-open-i-am-distancing-myself-from-politics

    In a series of tweets Tuesday, West called for “love and compassion” for asylum-seekers as President Trump ordered thousands active-duty troops to the southern border in response to a caravan of migrants slowly moving through Mexico who intend to apply for asylum if they reach the U.S.

    West also expressed support for “common-sense gun laws” and efforts to hold law enforcement officers accountable for abuses of power.

  910. Redmen4ever says:

    CNN polls … I suspect China collusion

  911. mnw says:

    NYC

    Look at the trollfest. THESE are “the different opinions” that Bitterlaw values.

    In two years, either this site will have folded, or it will be all troll.

  912. CG says:

    Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie and I on Trump.

    The question I suppose is why mnw wants to post here I suppose.

  913. CG says:

    I supposed one time too many!

  914. lisab says:

    So you want me to post 25 internet links from yesterday about Kanye West so that everyone has to scroll through them all?
    ——————–

    no, i would like you to point out who at hhr said kanye was going to be the keynote speaker at the gop convention

  915. CG says:

    The keynote speaker thing I heard on television, i.e “elsewhere”

    People here were asserting that Kanye was having an effect on Trump becoming more popular among African-Americans. I see zero evidence of that.

  916. lisab says:

    As for being “coddled”, I am still waiting to see your evidence to back up your previous comments.
    ———————-

    this from the person who is not even trusted to access =twitter or youtube by his/her employer

    how good a job can you have if your employer blocks your internet usage?

  917. lisab says:

    “but some people here and elsewhere were speculating that Kanye could keynote the next GOP convention”
    ——————————

    so you lied about that

  918. CG says:

    Nobody in my company is able to access it. I suppose some people were actually using it to Tweet. We used to be able to and wish I still could keep up with the Tweets from Politics1, etc, throughout the day.

    Having to rely on you folks to get political news is perilous at best.

  919. CG says:

    Does here and/or elsewhere work better grammatically, teacher? You know what I was saying.

  920. NYCmike says:

    “West also expressed support for “common-sense gun laws” and efforts to hold law enforcement officers accountable for abuses of power.”

    -This is “liberal”?

    I support common-sense gun laws as well – common sense says that the more law-abiding folks have guns, the less likely a criminal element will rise up.

    As for holding law enforcement officers accountable – why would you consider that a “liberal” idea? Do you believe The State should have an unaccountable enforcement bureau?(That may explain your high opinion of Whitey Bulger’s favorite FBI officer).

  921. CG says:

    You would consider that rhetoric “liberal” yes, coming from anyone else, and you of course left out the caravan portion of his Tweets which come across of critical of Trump.

  922. CG says:

    Kanye referred specifically to gun laws to “make the world safer.”

    Spoken like a true globalist…

  923. NYCmike says:

    https://www.wnyc.org/story/twenty-years-later-look-back-nypd-assault-abner-louima-and-what-it-means-today/

    -“CG”,

    Are you against holding law enforcement officers accountable for their actions?

  924. CG says:

    Not at all NYC. I was happy with the murder conviction recently of the Chicago police officer who fired 18 shots into somebody.

  925. lisab says:

    Does here and/or elsewhere work better grammatically, teacher? You know what I was saying.
    ————————

    you made a statement of fact that some people at hhr — i.e. more than one person — said that kanye would be the keynote speaker at the gop convention

    but you lied

  926. mnw says:

    “Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie and I”– really?

    The way you figure these things out is, drop “with Robbie and” out of it, & see if it sounds right:

    So how does this sound, then? “Mr. Wissing agrees with I about Trump”

    And we thought three iii’s was illiterate.

  927. CG says:

    I think the HHR Grammar Board needs to face increased oversight.

  928. CG says:

    “Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie and I”

    I am pretty sure that part was grammatically correct but I did go to public schools.

  929. NYCmike says:

    “West called for “love and compassion” for asylum-seekers as President Trump ordered thousands active-duty troops to the southern border in response to a caravan of migrants slowly moving through Mexico who intend to apply for asylum if they reach the U.S.”

    -I call for “love and compassion” for the asylum-seekers as well…….too bad that Mexico has offered asylum, and they refused, because NOW the United States does not have to offer them asylum, and we shouldn’t.

    BUT, we can still offer them our “love and compassion”, as they return to the sh*tholes they came from.

    NEXT TIME, do it legally, as an individual, and we will love to have you, IF YOU FOLLOW THE LAWS OF OUR NATION.

  930. mnw says:

    I know… “that was just a TYPO! I did too finish Sixth Grade!”

    Trollspeak

  931. CG says:

    ok NYC, you have your view of the Carvan, Kanye has his. They are different. And mine would differ in parts from both of you.

  932. Todd McCain says:

    GOP now has a 113,000 ballot lead in AZ early voting; 9% lead.

  933. NYCmike says:

    What else, “CG”?

    All your evidence showed that Kanye knows how to make headlines and get publicity…….similar to our President.

    And for both of them, the media falls over itself, along with its customers like you, to present false narratives.

  934. CG says:

    “NEXT TIME, do it legally, as an individual, and we will love to have you, IF YOU FOLLOW THE LAWS OF OUR NATION.”

    This doesn’t really go along with your stated wish to deport 50% of legal immigrants and to drastically cut back the number of people who are allowed to immigrate. Have you changed your mind?

  935. CG says:

    “All your evidence showed that Kanye knows how to make headlines and get publicity…….similar to our President.”

    I’ve never claimed to be a fan of either.

  936. CG says:

    The relevant political point is that unless Kanye does a 180 again, he is not going to be “working for Trump” or anything like that.

    We will see if Trump refrains from attacking him.

  937. mnw says:

    corr-eee is “pretty sure that was grammatically correct.”

    I’m “pretty sure” he didn’t get a GED, then.

    I even told him how to figure out the error, i.e., just drop out “Robbie” & say, “Mr. Wissing agrees with I”

    He STILL can’t recognize his own idiocy– even with the easy test I provided.

    Anita Loos once wrote a book called, “A Girl Like I,” but it was a JOKE, see? A purposeful comic mistake.

  938. NYCmike says:

    When did I say I wanted to deport 50% of legal immigrants?

    And HOW the heck could we deport legal immigrants?

  939. CG says:

    975. A bit erratic and concerning

  940. CG says:

    Whenever you talked about Cotton/Perdue, you expressed support for that.

    Of course legal immigrants can lawfully be deported. They aren’t citizens. Do you now NOT support that?

  941. NYCmike says:

    The RAISE ACT calls for a 50% reduction in LEGAL IMMIGRATION.

    It says NOTHING about deporting LEGAL IMMIGRANTS.

    “CG”, your lack of comprehension about what the bill says is most likely the culprit in your negative attitude towards it.

  942. NYCmike says:

    When I say Legal Immigrants, I refer to people who have followed the laws, have not broken any laws while being here, and are on the path to citizenship already, if not already naturalized.

  943. CG says:

    So, you don’t want to deport people here legally? I really thought that your was position when you used to advocate this bill so much. I wonder what jason remembers.

  944. CG says:

    Legal immigrants sometimes break laws.

  945. NYCmike says:

    I expressed a support for a reduction in legal immigration, as a bargaining tool with Democrats to get the end of chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits. I was very supportive of keeping the same level of legal immigration if those other items are agreed to.

    I wrote that then, and now.

  946. mnw says:

    Is knowing how to write standard English what troll corr-eee finds “erratic and concerning”?

    He STILL can’t discern which of these is correct?

    1) “Agrees with I,” or

    2) “Agrees with me”

    The idiot actually doubled down on stupid.

  947. CG says:

    Remember I used to joke around about which half of your warehouse staff (assuming they are all legal) you would kick out. You never expressed any objection to the concept then.

    Should the U.S. born children of legal immigrants be automatic birthright citizens?

  948. NYCmike says:

    “Legal immigrants sometimes break laws.”

    -Yes, and if they do, they can be deported.

    Which is why I wrote: “When I say Legal Immigrants, I refer to people who have followed the laws, have not broken any laws while being here, and are on the path to citizenship already, if not already naturalized.”

  949. John says:

    From The Hill today…”Fox News tops CNN and MSNBC combined……..”
    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/414005-fox-news-tops-cnn-and-msnbc-combined-in-october-cable-news-ratings
    Old news. Just check the nightly ratings by Adweek. Fox News does this all the time.
    Actually, just add in Fox Business News (Kennedy, Dobbs, Trish Reagan etc…) and you have a monopoly.

  950. CG says:

    “Agrees with Robbie and me”

    “agrees with Robbie and I”

    I think both are correct grammatically. The latter sounds fancier though.

  951. NYCmike says:

    “Remember I used to joke around about which half of your warehouse staff (assuming they are all legal) you would kick out. You never expressed any objection to the concept then.”

    -This is a ridiculous statement.

    Cotton-Perdue is talking about the number of legal immigrants still to come in, not ones that are already here.

    You know that.

  952. CG says:

    So would you deport legal immigrants for non-felony offenses?

  953. mnw says:

    lisab

    Did “Agrees with I” REALLY get banned from using the internet by his boss? I don’t remember reading that.

  954. CG says:

    No, it is my understanding that Cotton-Perdue would make people leave the U.S.and that was why you liked it.

  955. Scooterboy says:

    O’Keefe has a video on Florida. Didn’t say which candidate. Should be releasing soon.

  956. NYCmike says:

    “Should the U.S. born children of legal immigrants be automatic birthright citizens?”

    -If we adjust other parts of immigration law, I would have no problem with birthright citizenship for legal immigrants, as it now is.

  957. CG says:

    And that was the whole genesis of the “s-hole” comments. Trump wanted to remove the Haitians, El Salvadorans, etc, who were granted status to be in the U.S. legally.

    Do you oppose him on that? I sure do.

  958. mnw says:

    No… “the latter” sounds like you’re just as illiterate as your troll buddy three iii’s, or your troll buddy Vichey, actually.

  959. NYCmike says:

    “No, it is my understanding that Cotton-Perdue would make people leave the U.S.and that was why you liked it.”

    -Again, would love to see where I wrote that I would want people who are here LEGALLY to be forced to leave and come back.

    That makes ZERO sense.

  960. CG says:

    So you are going against Trump on saying the Haitians, Salvadorans, etc, have to go back home? I’m genuinely surprised.

    Please link for me where in the Cotton-Perdue bill it says that legal immigrants would not be subjected to deportation.

  961. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    If a person has immigrated here legally, and is following the law of our land, why would our nation deport them?

    If there are people here under some temporary plan SEPARATE from immigration law, and now that plan is being ended, it would depend upon the politics of the deal.

    Make the Democrats give up something, and I would be for keeping those people here. Otherwise, if there is not a deal, then they can get sent back to their home country.

    Separate issues.

  962. mnw says:

    You might think that corr-eee would be embarrassed by his English language deficiencies, because as soon as you see how poorly he writes, you skip the rest.

    But nooo! “Both are grammatically correct.”

    I used to be an adult literacy volunteer, years ago. I could recommend some texts for him.

    But “Agrees with I” wouldn’t understand.

  963. NYCmike says:

    Blanket citizenship for anyone who wants to be here is NOT in the best interests of this country.

    Tough choices need to be made at certain times. Politics is a rough and tumble game.

  964. CG says:

    “NEXT TIME, do it legally, as an individual, and we will love to have you, IF YOU FOLLOW THE LAWS OF OUR NATION.”

    Again though, how you can tell these asylum seekers they will be welcomed under certain conditions and still support something that would greatly cap the number of all legal immigrants.

    These asylum seekers are unlikely to meet merit based skills standards, etc. Many would probably have to get public aid.

    Would you really “love to have them?”

  965. CG says:

    The Haitians, El Salvadorans, et al certainly fall into the category of legal immigrants.

    You are fine with the law-abiding ones being deported. Own up to it.

  966. NYCmike says:

    “These asylum seekers are unlikely to meet merit based skills standards, etc. Many would probably have to get public aid.”

    -They are NOT seeking asylum, as evidenced by their refusal to accept asylum from Mexico.

  967. mnw says:

    Adult education classes first, core-eee? BEFORE you spread your typed diarrhea, perhaps?

    How did you get to be such a total, self-absorbed little fool?

    And now he’s an immigration lawyer!

  968. Todd McCain says:

    So there is another STTP weekend in Florida; the Panhandle stays open though Sunday and Monday from what I read.

  969. NYCmike says:

    I speak of legal immigrants as INDIVIDUALS, not groups.

    If groups have special status, because of some natural disaster, and that special status is now being revoked, I would send them back, WHEREVER they came from.

    UNLESS some sort of deal could be made, which would benefit the country.

  970. NYCmike says:

    The more you speak about groups, along with your reluctance to provide evidence, makes it more and more apparent you have some Democratic blood in you.

  971. mnw says:

    NYT

    What’s worse? His troll foolishness, or his troll illiteracy?

    Reasonable people can disagree when it comes to “Agree with I”!

  972. CG says:

    NYC, you are the one who told them here that you would “love to have them.”

    I don’t think you would. Just admit it.

  973. Hugh says:

    Correct. Though I think in 16 Saturday was bigger for dems than Sunday.

  974. CG says:

    I didn’t know Democrats and Republicans have different “blood.”….. There is the Jewish blood, but I think it’s the same as your as well.

    My views on this issue are the same as the current Republican Congressional leadership, past Republicans Presidents, etc., Bitterlaw, even a former Republican like jason.. I think I am in solid enough Republican company.

  975. lisab says:

    Did “Agrees with I” REALLY get banned from using the internet by his boss?
    —————————-

    no, he is considered such a well-respected and valuable employee, that they don’t let him look at youtube or twitter

  976. mnw says:

    Hugh

    I’ve read that the Panhandle gets an extra EV day, that the other counties will not have.

  977. CG says:

    Far more dedicated employees than me are not allowed on Twitter here either.

    Big difference is I am perhaps the only person who isn’t on my cellphone internet all day.

    Someone needs to ask for well-being check on mnw. He is really an unhinged individual. I thought he was demanding everyone here ignore me. He should practice what he preaches.

  978. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    I live in NYC.

    I lived in San Francisco.

    If you are stupid enough to think I have any issues against people from ANY OTHER NATION, you go ahead and think it.

    I am starting to see that you are a zealot in your beliefs.

  979. mnw says:

    lisab

    Thanks. That’s unbelievable! He must be WAY up in the hierarchy to be treated like a third grader.

  980. NYCmike says:

    ” I think I am in solid enough Republican company.”

    -If the Republican Party views people as “groups” as opposed to INDIVIDUALS, then that is NOT the Republican Party I know and belong to.

  981. CG says:

    NYC, I do not know you well enough to make that suggestion but you have stated that you dramatically want to decrease legal immigration.

    Your statement today , directed rhetorically towards Central American caravan people, that under the right conditions, you would “love to have them” does not fit with everything else you have said.

    You can say you don’t want them without being a racist.

  982. CG says:

    What does this “Group” thing even mean to you. You have to spell it out.

    You have stated would be fine with deporting legal Haitians, El Salvadoans, etc, en masse, i.e. groups.

  983. lisab says:

    Far more dedicated employees than me are not allowed on Twitter here either.
    —————————————

    would it be,

    “far more dedicated employees than i are not allowed on twitter here either.”

  984. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    I have always spoken out about Cotton-Perdue as a political question. Their push to limit legal immigration to half the current numbers, to me, is a bargaining chip, which should not be taken off the table until the other side, the Democrats, make some concessions.

    I have said this repeatedly.

    Why you are unable to grasp the simplicity of the argument is beyond me. Something tells me that you already have an idea in mind, and nothing will change it.

    A zealot.

  985. NYCmike says:

    “You can say you don’t want them without being a racist.”

    -The word “racist” never entered my mind.

    And, it is also not a case of “want”.

  986. mnw says:

    NYC

    Why bother to interact with trollking corr-eee on substance? His functional illiteracy is all you need to know, much like three iii’s — once you type “disintigrate” (sic), or “agrees with I,” (sic), is there really any need to read further?

  987. CG says:

    The Cotton-Perdue bill is antithetical to my beliefs.

    If you think that makes me a zealot, so be it.

  988. NYCmike says:

    Any person, from any country, who doesn’t follow immigration rules to get here, could be deported.

    Do we, as a country, apply laws in such a draconian fashion? Not usually.

    Should we at certain times? Depending on the situation, YES.

  989. lisab says:

    his own company does not trust him to connect to youtube or twitter

  990. mnw says:

    lisab 1022

    “No! Both are grammatically correct! And the illiterate way sounds ‘fancier,’ anyway!”

    To hell with everyday literacy. We trolls prefer “fancier”!

  991. CG says:

    The specific people we were discussing followed the law though and are here legally. Trump has said they should be deported. You seem to agree with him on that.

    I disagree, but fine. You take a legitimate position.

    But you can’t consistently then claim you would “love” for third world individuals to attempt to come here by the book. Whatever they do, you will still say no in the end. Better just be honest to them than give them false hope.

  992. NYCmike says:

    “The Cotton-Perdue bill is antithetical to my beliefs.”

    -As lisab has asked in the past, what is the number of legal immigrants that should be admitted every year?

    2 million?
    20 million?
    200 million?

    What are your beliefs? And how is an arbitrary number antithetical to them?

  993. CG says:

    I don’t believe there needs to be an arbitrary number, but if you insist, let’s go with the number currently allowed today.

  994. CG says:

    And I also believe that as we should strive to curb illegal immigration and succeed in that, it means that more people can immigrate legally as a result.

  995. NYCmike says:

    “Whatever they do, you will still say no in the end. Better just be honest to them than give them false hope.”

    -Why don’t you come visit my neighborhood, and other surrounding neighborhoods, in Brooklyn?

    Then, as we walk around the streets and say “Hello” to people I have met, you can decide if we give them “false hope”.

  996. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t believe there needs to be an arbitrary number, but if you insist, let’s go with the number currently allowed today.”

    -I am fine with the current number……if you agree to end chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits.

    Can we agree on that?

  997. CG says:

    Even in Brooklyn, I imagine their lives are far better than they would be back at home. I am glad for them. I think they make America great in return.

  998. NYCmike says:

    “Even in Brooklyn, I imagine their lives are far better than they would be back at home. I am glad for them. I think they make America great in return.”

    -YET, you just said we gave them “false hope”.

    Mixed messages you are sending.

  999. CG says:

    Ending chain migration, etc, was part of the bill that you fought so hard against when Rubio went to a press conference with Schumer.

    It’s not like you didn’t have your chance on that previously.

  1000. NYCmike says:

    “-I am fine with the current number……if you agree to end chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits.

    Can we agree on that?”

    -Answer the question. I have answered plenty of yours.

  1001. CG says:

    You are giving false hope to those who want to come to America, not those who are already here.

    If it were up to you, these people in Brooklyn, by and large, would not have been allowed in. Just own up to it.

  1002. NYCmike says:

    “-Answer the question. I have answered plenty of yours.”

    “-I am fine with the current number……if you agree to end chain migration and unlimited welfare benefits.

    Can we agree on that?”

  1003. CG says:

    I believe chain migration should be limited to spouses and minor children.

    I do not support “unlimited welfare” and do not think we have that now, unless you are counting Medicare, Social Security..”

  1004. NYCmike says:

    “CG”,

    Will you seek to end chain migration and unlimited benefits, in return for me allowing the same number of legal immigrants as last year?

  1005. CG says:

    You’d have to write your own new bill then (Congrats on the apparent election.)

    The Cotton-Perdue bill includes other poison pills which make it a non-starter.

    To get my support though, you would also have to include a provision that allows permanent legal residency to the “Dreamers.”

    Are you still game?

  1006. Cash Cow TM says:

    “CG says:
    October 31, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    “Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie and I”

    I am pretty sure that part was grammatically correct but I did go to public schools.”
    ********************************************
    OK, here is the scoop.
    You can say
    Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie.” and
    “Mr. Wissing agrees with me.”

    But the Cow dictionary says if you combine the two statements into one sentence, the proper way is to say “…Robbie and me.”
    You do not change “me” to “I” just because you combine the two statements into one sentence.
    #######################
    Now if you said “Robbie agrees with Mr Wissing. And I agree with Mr. Wissing.” and if you wanted to put those thoughts into one sentence, you would properly say:
    “Robbie and I agree with Mr. Wissing.”

    But it is improper to tun it around and wrongly say that “Mr. Wissing agrees with Robbie and I.” Proper usage is “…Robbie and me.”
    %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
    Tomorrow’s grammar lesson will be about which of the following is correct when someone on the inside of a door answers your knock by saying “Who’s there?”

    –is the correct response “It is I”, or is the correct response “It is me.”?

  1007. SoHope says:

    the libertarian candidate for Senate just dropped out and Montana and endorsed Rosendale

  1008. CG says:

    Ok, the day that DJT goes without making a grammatical error on Twitter (official Presidential statements) is the day I worry about minor grammatical or typographical errors online.

    I took the ACT many years ago and scored quite highly in the language section. Thank you though for the explanation.

  1009. SoHope says:

    Sorry, I meant
    BOOM!
    The libertarian candidate for senate in MT dropped out and endorsed Rosendale.

  1010. Wes says:

    Walt, formally since the pronoun follows a being verb, it is a predicate nominative. This, being nominative case, it should strictly be “It is I.” However, most English speakers informally use objective pronouns for predicate nominative. This, “It’s me” is an acceptable informal sentence in the language. I personally prefer the nominative case and use it in this instance. I’m a rarity though.

  1011. Cash Cow TM says:

    All of that grammar stuff (proper use of I or me) has to do with dangling participles, agitated gerunds, pregnant pauses and other gobble-de-gook terms espoused by dedicated English teachers everywhere.

  1012. CG says:

    That certainly can’t hurt Rosendale.

    The incumbent Independent Governor of Alaska dropping out and endorsing the Democrat probably has even a greater effect in that race, as the Governor was polling in the 20s. That definitely changed the dynamics of that race towards the Democrats. Hard to deny that reality.

  1013. Wes says:

    Since the Libertarian is still on the ballot, will Rosendale get much of a benefit, SoHope? I’m not sure at this late date.

  1014. NYCmike says:

    “Are you still game?”

    -I don’t see why not. President Trump already offered that to more than the Dreamers, and I assumed his Republican Party was behind him, and it looks like you are in agreement with him.

    In return for chain migration curbs, welfare benefit cuts, and no birthright citizenship for future illegal alien children, a deal could probably be worked out.

  1015. CG says:

    Any mention of dangling participles and agitated gerunds may rouse TGCA to join the conversation.

  1016. Wes says:

    Begich is still trailing Dunleavy now that Walker has left the race, Corey.

  1017. CG says:

    Don’t think the birthright matter can be handled without a Constitutional fix.

    Not sure I would support it anyway. Curbing illegal immigration will solve this problem to the extent it exists. It’s not the baby’s fault though where their mother had them. There would be a concern for me of someone essentially being born without a country.

  1018. CG says:

    the last AK poll I saw had it tied. I would change that one from Likely R to Tossup.

  1019. jaichind says:

    It would be nice to see a poll of IA gov race. No poll results for a while from there.

  1020. Wes says:

    In 2002, the Libertarian running for Senate in SD dropped out and endorsed John Thune a week before the election. The Libertarian still got ~3000 votes. Although Thune certainly would not have gotten all those votes had the Libertarian dropped out earlier, that handful of votes was probably enough for Tim Johnson to squeak by by 525 votes on Election Day.

  1021. Wes says:

    Last poll I saw had Dunleavy up 1 over Begich. The one before that said Dunleavy led by seven.

  1022. CG says:

    One point is basically a tied race for all intents and purposes. Walker leaving was a dramatic campaign event and the support went heavily to Begich. That trend is not a good one for Dunleavy. Walker remains on the ballot though, so perhaps he still winds up as the “spoiler” in the end.

  1023. Wes says:

    Alaska hasn’t had a runaway election for Senate or Governor since 2002–except when Parnell won big in 2010. Dunleavy has led all polls even with Walker out of the race, and Walker is still going to get some votes. I would say Lean R Pickup now, but I don’t think it rates Tossup status.

  1024. Mr.Vito says:

    Great. Now you guys can talk about the improper use of ‘whom’ in 882 for a while…

  1025. Redmen4ever says:

    There is only one Supreme Court decision on whether children born in the U.S. to alien parents are birthright citizens. That decision is U.S. v. Wong Kim Ark. It concerned a child born in the U.S. to legal permanent residents. The decision is silent with respect to children born to aliens here to parents on temporary visas and to aliens who are here illegally.

    It is clear that Wong Kim Ark assumes that persons born here are part of the body politic of this country, subject to the same rights and responsibilities of citizens of this country, being protected by and owing allegiance to this country. But, can children of parents who are here illegally or who are here only for the short time that their parents are here, be presumed to be part of the body politic?

    The answer to this question has been that these are “anchor babies.” In order for them to be part of the body politic, their parents must be allowed to remain here.

    The 14th Amendment is therefore construed as INTENDING that aliens here illegally or on tourist visas have the right to stay here permanently, so their anchor baby children will be part of the body politic. It is absurd to say this result was intended. This result wasn’t even contemplated in the development of English common law or in Wong Kim Ark.

    It wasn’t until the 1960s that illegal immigration and anchor babies became an issue in this country. This is truly a novel issue and it would be good for the Supreme Court to have an actual case so the controversy can be resolved.

  1026. mnw says:

    Cow

    Even after I explained the “agrees with I” situation to him in detail, he doubled-down, & responded that “agrees with I” is JUST AS CORRECT as “agrees with me,” & anyway… “agrees with I” sounds “fancier”!

    Ignoramus, & a STUBBORN ignoramus.

  1027. NYCmike says:

    “There would be a concern for me of someone essentially being born without a country.”

    -So, every single mother in the world can book a ticket to the United States in the last month of their pregnancy, fly here, have the baby, and the child is now a citizen?

  1028. Wes says:

    Using I as an object of preposition is just as incorrect as using me as a subject.

  1029. Todd McCain says:

    FOX Senate dump coming at 6 pm.

  1030. CG says:

    No NYC. Who said that? We can enforce against things like that. But that’s not really what the debate is even about.

  1031. mnw says:

    1064 Vito

    “who” is correct in 882.

    I agree with every point NYCMike made this afternoon, by the way, but I refuse to engage trolls on substance.

  1032. mnw says:

    Wes

    Yep.

  1033. CG says:

    This grammar conversation could only be made more valuable by the insights of Tina.

  1034. Todd McCain says:

    NBC Marist:

    Donnelly +2

  1035. Hugh says:

    You gotta love joe ralston a week ago he said if Clark could get to 40k it would be close now he’s lowered his threshold to 35k. Nothing but cheerleading.

    Donnelly is toast.

  1036. Phil says:

    So Donnelly is down?

  1037. NYCmike says:

    “We can enforce against things like that. But that’s not really what the debate is even about.”

    -How does one enforce against women buying a plane ticket in any other country, and landing at an airport in the United States?

  1038. CG says:

    Since Red Racing Horses gets discussed a lot on here, especially by one person, I note that they are more bullish on Brendan Kelly than I am for sure. I have called the race Leans R. Here is their capsule:

    “IL-12: IL-12 is a rightward-trending R+5 seat covering most of the MetroEast suburbs of St. Louis and most of Little Egypt at the southern tip of the state. The seat has some Dem heritage which has landed it on Dem target lists, though it is relatively Trumpulist friendly territory. Two-term incumbent Mike Bost (R) is best known as a populist, and won his first term with help from a viral video of him delivering an anti-Mike Madigan tirade in the state legislature.

    Bost is facing a a top-tier D recruit in St. Clair County DA Brendan Kelly (D). Kelly has fundraised very well, and this general election has been regarded as highly competitive. A recent poll had Bost opening up a lead in recent weeks, though the seat could still fall in a wave, especially if GOP vote shares are depressed over dissatisfaction with Rauner. RRH Elections currently rates this general election as a Tossup.”

  1039. CG says:

    There is no paperwork involved in travelling internationally to the U.S.?

  1040. CG says:

    What percent of babies born in the U.S. are born to foreign visitors?

    Enforce the Customs laws to make sure nobody is committing fraud in regards to their intent and if there is a company trafficking in this illegal activity, go after those companies and shut them down.

    The concept that “every single woman in the world will buy a ticket and come to America in their 9th month” is not reality-based.

  1041. NYCmike says:

    Paperwork? For what? Buy the ticket, your home country allows you to leave, you land. I assume other countries will have passports like we do.

    Once the woman lands, and goes into labor, will you refuse them medical care and immediately put them on a plane and take off?

  1042. CG says:

    You can refuse a visa to a woman who would be scheduled to give birth. If they lie about their intention, that is a crime. The mother should be prosecuted and extradited out. The mother will almost always choose to take the baby with.

    No need to so drastically change the system or Constitution just for these cases. Crack down harder on illegal immigration fraud, including “birth tourism.”

    Not the baby’s fault though is the bottom line. I think there are other ways to prevent this from happening.

  1043. CG says:

    You provide medical care to the mother and baby of course.

    If the mother committed fraud though, they can be removed upon recovering from giving birth. Whether she wants to take the baby with is up to her. Almost all will. You are suggesting she is someone who was able to financially afford an international plane ticket and somewhere to live until they give birth.

    Without the aid of an illegally operating company, it’s hard to see that happening much. Go after the companies. That serves as a deterrent.

  1044. CG says:

    Are women supposed to even fly in their 9th month?

    The odds that a wealthy foreign woman is going to be likely to do this just to make the baby an U.S. citizen is small.

    There are impoverished women who do this with the help of illegal companies. Gotta go after the companies first.

  1045. Scooterboy says:

    I posted about the Libertarian dropping out of the Montana Senate race around 50 posts ago.

    Now I remember why I left HHR. You always ignore my posts. Some things never change. BASTARDS !!!!!

  1046. GeorgeIllinois says:

    I’m back. On the Mike Bost-Brendan Kelly race. One unknown in the Illinois races this year is just what impact, if any, Sam McCann will have on other races. It widely believed he was put into the race to draw votes from Rauner, which he will undoubtedly do. How many remains to be seen. But the people he’ll attract are mainly blue collar, working class, pro-life voters. Hard to imagine them opting for Kelly over Bost. But like I said, who knows how many voters this will be.

  1047. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Nevada early voting results are now completely in through yesterday.. The early vote went from +11,125(D) on Tuesday to 11,922(D) today.
    So although the Democrat ballots won the day in Clark County by 2,300 and Warshoe was a draw, the “Cow Counties” were able to reduce the De. ballot lead for the day to about 8oo net votes by having Republican ballots at a net of approximately 1,500.
    Looking pretty good.

  1048. Chicon says:

    Has anyone heard from Scooter lately?

  1049. jason says:

    Hey Scooter, man up, remember you are not junior A-hole anymore.

  1050. CG says:

    I think Bost will win, but there is going to be depressed Republican turnout in Illinois unlike perhaps any of the other 49 states.

    Roskam and Hultgren are at greater risk.

    Some (or one) have taken issue with the concept that Kelly was considered a top Dem recruit or had raised large amounts of money.

  1051. CG says:

    Scooter was the vision impaired guy who used to post here, right?

  1052. Cash Cow TM says:

    “CG says:
    October 31, 2018 at 1:45 pm
    The Candace Owens angle seems secondary. I don’t really even know whom she is.”
    @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
    IT SHOULD BE “WHO” SHE IS!

  1053. jason says:

    Has Cotton Perdue passed yet?

    According to NYC it was a fine piece of legislation the entire GOP caucus was excited about.

  1054. jason says:

    Scooter is a full fledged A-hole.

  1055. Cash Cow TM says:

    SCOOTERBOY!

    Big ‘MOO’ (cow shout out) out to you!

  1056. Scooterboy says:

    No CG….I can see fine. I CAN’T HEAR. NOW GFY !!!!

  1057. jason says:

    “So, every single mother in the world can book a ticket to the United States in the last month of their pregnancy, fly here, have the baby, and the child is now a citizen?”

    Under the Constitution, yes.

    Is this really your major concern?

    I bet 99.9999% of birthright citizens don’t fall under this scenario.

  1058. CG says:

    I was just joking. I know you can see fine and watched the Cardinals finish in 3rd place.

  1059. Scooterboy says:

    Yes, Cardinals have been very mediocre the last three years. Have played horrible fundamentally flawed baseball. Need to improve the roster though. Just aren’t talented enough.

  1060. CG says:

    Just be glad you aren’t a Mets fan.

  1061. Scooterboy says:

    By the way, I picked them to finish in third place at the beginning of the season, on my FB baseball page.

  1062. JeffP says:

    Okay…it’s the middle of the 2nd week of early voting and the numbers are looking not just good but GREAT for the GOP in Arizona, Florida and Nevada. Really makes me begin to wonder how many traditional DEMS are sitting this one out to send a message to the looney left. Polls could be way off again.

    The GOP Senate candidate from said NJ told Laura Ingraham on the radio that we was ahead by a couple points and the race is trending his way. Interesting.

  1063. Skippy says:

    Brace for impact..

  1064. Skippy says:

    AZ: TIE (46/46) | Trump Job approval (+6)
    IN: DONNELLY (D) +7 (45/38) | Trump (+2)
    MO: TIE (43/43) | Trump (+11)
    ND: CRAMER (R) +9 (51/42) | Trump (+25)
    TN: BLACKBURN (R) +9 (50/41) | Trump (+19)

  1065. Todd McCain says:

    FOX: Donnelly +7; horrible polls for Braun today.

  1066. Skippy says:

    FOX Polls.

  1067. Scooterboy says:

    They have very good young pitching. Need to improve the lineup and bullpen.

  1068. Hugh says:

    Indiana +2 for trump. Would love to see age demographics on that one

  1069. NYCmike says:

    scooterboy,

    Didn’t the Cards make a pretty crazy run in the last 2 months? That must have been exciting.

  1070. Justin says:

    I believe Donnelly may just hold on. UGH. Gotta wonder why Trump is polling so poorly there.

    And Missouri polling continues to br frustratingly close.

  1071. NYCmike says:

    #1104 – I predict we will all 5 of those.

  1072. RB says:

    Well the IN polls stink

  1073. NYCmike says:

    Forgot the word “win” in there…..leaving myself an out…

  1074. Phil says:

    Well, shoot. I thought we could get Indiana. What a disappointment. At least Texas and Tennessee are secure so we don’t lose the senate with a lock on ND. I thought we would be ahead in Mo. Arizona still in play. That is good.

  1075. marc says:

    The Indiana polling is strange because Donnelly isn’t running his campaign like he’s a couple points ahead, he’s running his campaign like he’s behind. The past few weeks he’s basic run has a Trump Republican despite voting against Kavanaugh. So something isn’t adding up here.

  1076. Jaichind says:

    I wonder if the large undecided in IN are GOP-Libertarian undecided which most will go GOP election day

  1077. RB says:

    If the GOP only has 2 puckups(MO/ND) it looks like we’ll probably end the day with 52(that is splitting AZ-NV)…51 would be awful…53 tolerable

  1078. lisab says:

    As lisab has asked in the past, what is the number of legal immigrants that should be admitted every year?
    ——————

    actually i have not asked that question to the best of my recollection.

    i would have a different take on that than most people, having lived in a developing country. i think that, for the most part, people should not come to the usa.

    we have enough of our own poor and unskilled and if they are skilled, than their own country needs them. we could certainly go to a points system, like most of the world, e.g. canada and australia and allow skilled people in,

    but seeing the human waste and tent villages on the streets of california is evidence we have enough poor at the moment.

    and

    i am especially against illegals, because they allow an underground black market of welfare and employment fraud which allows everything from the spread of disease to sex trafficking.

  1079. Bitterlaw says:

    MD did NOT make fun of NYC’s family business. He made fun of the business for hiring NYC and also said that NYC was lucky that somebody would hire him at all.

  1080. Scooterboy says:

    1109. They had a good run in August. Played pretty bad in September.

  1081. Florida Guy says:

    NBC/Marist

    Donnelly +2

    https://www.wthr.com/article/new-poll-shows-sen-donnelly-slight-lead-over-braun

    Marist had Donnelly up in Sept. by 6.

  1082. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1077. “-How does one enforce against women buying a plane ticket in any other country, and landing at an airport in the United States?”

    Know of cases where women have come over the border to have their children on this side of the border.

    When the 14th Amendment was enacted travel was different, it was a long and difficult journey to the U.S. (except from Canada). Hard for someone who is pregnant. Believe the 14th Amendment needs to be amended to limit birth citizenship to those whose parent(s) were U.S. citizens, and possibly also to those who are legally in the country who are not citizens. But it has to be done by amending the Constitution.

  1083. jason says:

    I think Braun wins.

  1084. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    in the 19th century there were a lot of people who were raised in Canada, but claimed they were born in places like Derby Line, Vermont. Since birth certificates were not routine, no one questioned it. At the time new settlers were arriving in America in massive numbers, so no one really cared.

  1085. lisab says:

    What percent of babies born in the U.S. are born to foreign visitors?
    ————————–

    quite a large percentage, about 8%

    more than the number of births in 18 of the smaller states combined, more babies than are born in ny in one year, and less babies than are born in texas in one year.

    however, both ny and texas have many babies that are born to illegals

  1086. Marc says:

    Trump Approval vs. Democrat Performance, per @foxnewspoll:

    #AZSen: 52/46 — Sinema: 46
    #INSen: 50/48 — Donnelly: 45
    #MOSen: 54/43 — McCaskill: 43
    #NDSen: 61/36 — Heitkamp: 42
    #TNSen: 58/39 — Bredesen: 41

  1087. Florida Guy says:

    INDIANA

    O ye of little faith.

    Fox severely underpolled Braun support. With the positive CBS and Cygnal polls, and the last two pro-Donnelly polls, it’s:

    Donnelly 44.75
    Braun 44.25

    And no way an Indiana Libertarian breaks 5%.

  1088. lisab says:

    So, every single mother in the world can book a ticket to the United States in the last month of their pregnancy, fly here, have the baby, and the child is now a citizen?
    —————————-

    likely they would be put right back on the plane and sent back. unless they are in labor at customs, they would be denied entry into the country.

  1089. Florida Guy says:

    Also, Indiana Democrats are up to their old Harry Reid-style tricks. They mailed out a Libertarian mailer. They are sweating Donnelly because he is 5 points below 50.

    –FG

  1090. Hugh says:

    Hey guys. Look at the EV for Indy. Very old and very white. Donnelly is toast

  1091. lisab says:

    it is far more common to come early in the pregnancy or even not pregnant and then overstay the visa.

  1092. lisab says:

    I think Bost will win, but there is going to be depressed Republican turnout in Illinois
    ——————————–

    but … but … what about the dog?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iwn82GisnW0

  1093. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1118. “we have enough of our own poor and unskilled and if they are skilled, than their own country needs them.”

    The problem is a lot of Americans, particularly the young, don’t want to work. By contrast, workers from other countries often appreciate the opportunities they obtain in the U.S. and work their tails off.

    I know a red-neck Arizona contractor who came to San Diego to do a construction project. He though he would be hiring a primarily Anglo crew. However, his crew ended up being almost entirely of Mexican. His comment to me was “white boys in California do not know how to work.” Unfortunately its basically true. One of the qualifications to being a snowflake is refusing to engage in manual labor.

  1094. 1131. Agree with lisab.

  1095. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The Party Identification for the FOX Indiana Poll is 44(R) and 41(D).
    Is it me or does that seem a bit unrealistic?

    This poll has the same feel as the Doug Jones(D) Alabama Senate poll which him +9 over Roy Moore(R). Jones prevailed by 1 1/2%.

  1096. mnw says:

    FG 1127

    Why do you believe that FOX severely under-polled Braun support in IN, pls?

    Not saying you’re wrong. Just curious.

  1097. Phil says:

    Haven’t seen any Texas polls from the networks in over a week. Do you suppose they have finally given up on their heart throb Beto.

  1098. NYCmike says:

    “MD did NOT make fun of NYC’s family business. He made fun of the business….”

    -Glad we got that cleared up!

  1099. lisab says:

    The problem is a lot of Americans, particularly the young, don’t want to work. By contrast, workers from other countries often appreciate the opportunities they obtain in the U.S. and work their tails off.
    ——————————————

    as mike rowe says, americans will definitely work dirty jobs,

    and

    it is fundamentally a bad idea to have an underclass come into the country to work “dirty jobs”. not only that, but it forces companies to be innovative, either by increasing pay or doing things like automating, like mcdonalds has had to do. this is good for our country.

    finally, it is a bad idea to take unskilled people from other countries who displace an american unskilled person. one or both will end up on welfare, which is a tax on working people.

    it is far far better to not have welfare fraud, (e.g. illegal aliens on welfare), and just have the company pay an unskilled american directly.

    if we allow a company to hire an illegal under the table, the american goes on welfare and we have to pay that cost. and … the illegal alien probably has to go on welfare anyway because they get paid less.

  1100. NYCmike says:

    “1131. Agree with lisab.”

    -Fine, I can agree with that as well.

    Either way, once they hit our soil, they can’t be forced to leave, as our politicians are unwilling to deal with the media when that happens…..mainly because of snowflakes like “CG”.

  1101. Bitterlaw says:

    If people want to amend the 14th Amendment, they should start the Amendment process. Pretty wild idea.

  1102. lisab says:

    it is simply a very bad idea to have a

    a.) non-working class of americans

    and

    b.) an underclass of foreign workers.

    both of whom are heavily subsidized by american taxpayers via welfare.

    it would simply be better to keep out the illegals and make the shirkers get a job.

    even if it meant using the welfare we currently pay to illegals to create jobs in places like detroit or flint where there are few jobs.

    as my mother said when i complained there was nothing to do, “i’ll find you something to do”

    i would rather have people in detroit clean up the trash and sweep the streets than stay home.

    there is a certain amount of crime that is fostered by people being unemployed and waking up at noon. if you work 9 to 5, you are too tired to get into trouble.

  1103. Phil says:

    1135

    The Indiana party ID in 20016 according to CNN exits was R+12 so there is that. Given that midterm electorates tend to be older and whiter the D+3 seems rather odd.

    This poll could easily be off. I don’t ever reweight polls but this one looks to be a bit of an outlier with regard to sample. We will see.

  1104. lisab says:

    amending the 14th amendment is unlikely to succeed,

    but hardly a wild idea.

    almost all countries only allow citizenship to children of citizens.

  1105. lisab says:

    if the dems don’t take the house

    (and i think they will)

    but if they don’t, i think the antifa types will revolt and force a major swing left

  1106. mnw says:

    1143 Phil

    rdel makes the same point at RRH. Plus, he’s not an admirer of FOX polls, for reasons which he explained.

    When Bayh ran for reelection, the FOX poll & others had him +5 just a week before the GE.

  1107. Hugh says:

    Phil nailed it on indiana.

  1108. Florida Guy says:

    I believe that 38% at this point for Braun is underpolling. I would have tossed that poll and tried again.

  1109. mnw says:

    A 9-point swing since FOX’s last IN SEN poll is a much more pronounced shift than in any OTHER FOX SEN poll.

  1110. Florida Guy says:

    Plus, whatever happened to the CW that being under 50 is a horrible sign for an incumbent?

  1111. Tina says:

    D plus 3 for Indiana?

    Wtf.

  1112. Tina says:

    Florida Trump rally now. Huge crowd.

    Btw, Bernie and Guloon had their rally earlier and nobody showed.

  1113. Brandon says:

    Cook has now revised their projection to 30-40 seat gain for Dems. It was 25-35 last month.

  1114. jason says:

    Even that poll is not that good for Donnelly. 45% as an incumbent?

    ZZzzzzzzzzzz…..

    I think Braun wins 54-46.

    If I am wrong, GFYs.

  1115. jason says:

    Sure, go ahead and try to revoke the 14th amendment.

    Until then, children born in the US are citizens.

  1116. Tina says:

    g
    @athein1
    20m
    NV EV update 11 am 10/31 — SOS updated again. Little change from the earlier version. Lyon Co. is in. Dem lead at 11.8k, Same assessment as last time. pic.twitter.com/2XOQNfqZlV
    View photo ·

  1117. mnw says:

    Look at post 1126

    Trump’s JA in IN is only +2? Look at AZ (+6) & MO (+11).

  1118. mnw says:

    1156

    Including the skyrocketing Chinese “birth tourism” industry. Book a tour in the U.S. Deliver child in U.S. Return to China with an anchor baby! U.S. citizenship is just like the prize in a crackerjack box!

    Do you perceive any problem with that? I suspect some Trump judges might. Original intent was THAT?

  1119. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1139. “”as mike rowe says, americans will definitely work dirty jobs, and it is fundamentally a bad idea to have an underclass come into the country to work “dirty job”

    Can I move into mike rowe’s world along with Dorothy, Toto and the Wizard?

    When your doing construction or a similar dirty job, and your snowflake workers are not showing up and quiting, your going to use the workers who will actually do the job. And the wage scale is high in California.

    Legal workers who are immigrants, or who come in daily from Mexico (and have legal status to work) are the logical and only alternative.

  1120. lisab says:

    When your doing construction or a similar dirty job, and your snowflake workers are not showing up and quiting,
    —————————

    because they have the option to get paid, free food and free housing by staying home

    and the employers allow it, because they have illegal aliens they can hire for less

    they let the taxpayers pay for the shirkers

  1121. lisab says:

    Including the skyrocketing Chinese “birth tourism” industry.
    ————————

    the bulk of those people have money, and are educated

  1122. dblaikie says:

    Cook gave up trying to accurate about 6 weeks ago.Trying to promote a narrative.

  1123. lisab says:

    Russian scientist ‘tried to kill’ a colleague at Antarctic research station ‘because the man kept giving away the endings of books he was reading’
    ———————–

    harry potter dies and christian grey goes bankrupt

  1124. Brandon says:

    I could easily see 30+ seats flipping. But I guess that just makes me a Dem troll.

  1125. lisab says:

    the average is 31

  1126. Cash Cow TM says:

    DRUDGE
    “Two South Florida rappers die in hail”

    “of bullets…”
    ##########################
    I first thought FL was having bad weather until I finished reading the headline.

  1127. Phil says:

    I put the over and under on lost seats at 30 – and I am no troll. Would love to keep the House, but under the circumstances if we were to keep it in the high 20s that wouldn’t be the kind of blue wave the MSM has been slobbering over – – especially if we can add two seats in the Senate. Three would be an outstanding night.

  1128. Hugh says:

    Phil. There is a blue wave or there isn’t we will add 1 seat to the senate or at least 4. I still believe we add at least 4. Unfortunately it’s hard for us to get confident in the face of these polls and the press cheerleading and fox echoing the msm to not look biased. Good news is if I’m right the pollsters will be disgraced so badly they will be ignored going forward.

  1129. Phil says:

    Hugh, I think it is more a matter of degree. We will lose House seats. The trick is to keep the losses down as much as possible. We will lose governorships as well. However, if we were to hang on to Wisconsin, Ohio, Georgia…that’s not a wipeout. The senate races are on our turf. Expanding by a couple of seats is still not a bad night.

    It certainly would not be the kind of night that Maddow would orgasm over.

  1130. NYCmike says:

    Expect to lose some House seats, some state legislatures, and some governorships, and expect to win some Senate seats.

    The LEFT has convinced people that Medicare For All is a good thing, and McCain’s thumb-down helped that because Obamacare wasn’t ripped out like it should have been.

    All in all, it has been a good 2 years, and I believe people will vote for jobs.

    Republicans will retain the House by a very slim majority.

    AND, as Chicon pointed out, that is a YUGE deal, if you can keep Adam Schiff-less, and other crazies like him, out of a committee chair.

    Trump is doing all he can for the Republicans……can’t say the same for many #NeverTrumpers wing of the Republican Party.

  1131. mnw says:

    NYC

    I thought you did an excellent job with the troll this afternoon, but I still wonder why you dignify his slop like that.

  1132. MichiganGuy says:

    Michigan Senate:
    .
    Stabenow (D) 54%
    James (R) 41%
    .
    GravisMarketing Poll
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Michigan_Statewide_October_30_2018_v2.pdf
    —————————————————————————————————————
    Anyone still believe James can win? lol

  1133. RB says:

    GOP needs to hold the line in NV today…tomorrow and especially Friday have historically been good Dem days.

    Biggest dissapointment so far is Washue..overall we are down a smidgion in Washue

    Biggest shock (including Mr. Ralston) is the Rurals…the GOP is crushing it there…and the Rurals (along with the GOP avoiding total didaster in Clark) are tipping NV to a point where even Mr. Ralston is not sure…if Washue does what it suposed to do then i like Heller…if not…it is an out and out Donnybrook of a finish.

  1134. NYCmike says:

    mnw,

    Thanks. I like to try to explain myself, and see if it makes sense, I guess. Helps to write things out.

    Plus, I am always surprised by how sanctimonious “CG” is, and then to see some others not even react to the fact that an illegal immigrant can come here, have a child, and then leave with that child, BUT the child IS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN, no matter how long they stay away for.

  1135. MichiganGuy says:

    Oregon Governor:
    .
    Brown (D) 45%
    Buehler (R) 42%
    Other 6%
    Undecided 7%
    .
    Hoffman Research Group
    https://hoffmanresearchgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PRESS-RELEASE-OR-Gov-Poll-10-30-18.pdf
    —————————————————————————————————————
    This is my surprise Governor’s race. This will be a GOP pickup. Brown is going down.

  1136. RB says:

    1046-Cash Cow-Hilarious

  1137. lisab says:

    I am always surprised by how sanctimonious “CG”
    ———————————————

    it is exactly how dems and the mainstream media view trump voters

    i find corey/robbie as dem parodies

  1138. NYCmike says:

    “–is the correct response “It is I”, or is the correct response “It is me.”?”

    -The correct response is “GFY, Land Shark!”

    or else –

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi6b5LU4mmY

  1139. Wes says:

    Corey and Robbie are GWB sycophants who carried their blind devotion to the 43rd President over to JEB!. They can’t accept the fact that the GOP dared deny a member of the Bush family the presidency; ergo, they have become unhinged and can only see bad things for the GOP without a Bush in the White House.

  1140. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    This is a must read for an up to the minute take on the current voting trends in AZ by a Phoenix-based polling company.
    Mr. Khaleb’s conclusion with copious data support is that things look good for the GOP going into the homestretch of the campaign.

    https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/az-early-voting-reveals-four-major-trends

  1141. lisab says:

    and then to see some others not even react
    ———————————-

    actually i think that is a mistake. robbie/corey find some obscure statement on twitter or happening on the news and then bait you to defend it, when in fact you were not involved in any way.

    instead i think it is better to simply mock them.

    there are intelligent people on both sides that have many different views on immigration. why discuss it with corey/robbie?

  1142. Hugh says:

    1st. It’s tough we knew the rescue polls were coming and it even deflates me. Second NT

  1143. Todd McCain says:

    BOOM!

    OH Predictive

    McSally 52
    Sinema 45

    BOOM!

    Manchin 45
    Morissey 40

  1144. dblaikie says:

    Well the GOP did far better than the early vote in 2016. Republicans have a some reasons to be optimistic. The first the Culinary Works Union has done its worst. Yesterday was their gut punch. They always hit hard. But this year was not a knockout. Second it is a safe bet that Heller is substantially ahead with Indies. The real vote is close to dead even with them figured. This all means that Heller is going to win the ED vote. My unkwown is Washoe. Trump lost it. In 2012 Heller won by 20000. This year he needs to win by around 5000 to 10000 votes. My final prediction is Heller will win by 5000 to 15000.
    I