US Senate Outcome On Edge in Slew Of Polls

Indiana and Tennessee seem to be heading towards the current parties in power while Nevada and Arizona appear to be in danger of flipping to the Democrats while North Dakota nad Missouri are on teh verge of flipping to Republicans in a slug of polls released today by Fox News, CNN and NBC News/Marist.

Martha McSally (R) 46%
Kyrsten Sinema (D) 46%

Kyrsten Sinema (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R) 47%

Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 45%
Mike Braun (R) 38%
Lucy Brenton (L) 5%

Joe Donnelly (D-inc) 45%
Mike Braun (R) 42%
Lucy Brenton (L) 7%

Claire McCaskill (D-inc) 45%
Josh Hawley (R) 45%

Jacky Rosen (D) 48%
Dean Heller (R-inc) 45%

Kevin Cramer (R) 51%
Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc) 42%

Marsha Blackburn (R) 50%
Phil Bredesen (D) 41%

Marsha Blackburn (R) 51%
Phil Bredesen (D) 46%

Feel free to go to the respective links above for the news organizations releasing these polls to get the dates.

Posted by Dave at 9:57 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (1,443)

1,443 Responses to “US Senate Outcome On Edge in Slew Of Polls”

  1. Cash Cow TM says:


  2. Cash Cow TM says:

    Or not…

  3. Hugh says:

    Sorry cash cow

  4. Hugh says:

    These rescue polls are painful. Everyone needs to keep the faith. EV is real.

  5. Scooby77 says:

    I say it a lot: how in the hell is Sinema even still in the race? Are there any Arizonans on HHR? I’d love to hear how McSally’s ad campaign has been going. I’m hoping she’s been playing Sinema’s own comments non-stop.

  6. Cash Cow TM says:


    No problem…(you no good, low down, %$@))@#*)

  7. NYCmike says:

    I keep thinking that we survived 8 years each of Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama…..relax, get out and work/volunteer/vote as often as you can, and the chips will fall. I take heart from 2016, the polls are crazy, and nobody is sure what the final electorate will look like.

    Just keep plugging away out there!

  8. Cash Cow TM says:

    When political ads come o TV for MD, VA, WV candidates Walt has taken to either booing the candidates he does not like or cheering verbally on the ads for candidates he likes.

    Mrs. Walt just shakes her head and sighs.
    Walt dressed up in a cow costume for halloween and tried to hang out with me.
    Udderly ridiculous…

  9. Hugh says:

    AZ is ovah. No way to overcome the EV.

  10. Cash Cow TM says:

    So far, about 100,000 people have voted early in WV.

    In my county, about 1,000 are voting early each day.

    Reports from other parts of the state also report heavy early voting–in some cases matching or surpassing Early Voting in a presidential year.

    Walt and his missus have not voted early yet…but usually do vote early.
    (P.S.–In overhearing their discussions, it seems Walt and wife will cancel out each others votes in several state and local races…)

  11. mnw says:

    AZ SEN

    Ohio Predictive Insights:

    McSally 52
    Sinema 45
    Green candidate 1

    This is a twitter “teaser” for their actual poll, which is to be released tomorrow.

  12. MichiganGuy says:

    “James O’Keefe’s Project Veritas released a bombshell video on Wednesday night that showed staffers for Florida Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum revealing just how far-left he is and how the campaign is trying to hide that from voters.

    Omar Smith, a campaign staffer for Gillum, said that if elected, “None of the programs that people are hoping for would happen” but “that’s not for [voters] to know.”

    “Gillum is a Progressive,” Smith continued. “He is a part of the crazy, crazy, crazies.”

    Smith repeatedly referred to white people as “crackers,” saying that Florida is a F**ked up…cracker state,” and that the campaign has “to appeal to white guilt.”

  13. Cash Cow TM says:


    means I
    I names
    I manse
    Is amen

  14. mnw says:


    I read where Gov. Justice was so depressed, his staff changed his bathroom scales from pounds to kilograms–just to cheer him up!

  15. Cash Cow TM says:

    You get a kick out of kicking the fat guy…

  16. Phil says:

    Ohio predictive insights

    Would be interested to know more about that outfit.

  17. RB says:

    Mr. Ralston just updated his blog which nails the 6 Counties tipping the State(Carson City, Douglas, Elko, Churchill, Nye and Lyon)… the real question is…

    These things tend not to happen in a vaccum. While the Dem urban areas are exploding in NV so are the Rurals…so are our polsters across the US accuratly capturing the rural explosions or only seeing the urban explosions…NVsuggests both are exploding…but what models are the pollsters using?

  18. mnw says:


    538 rates OPI at C+. They are fairly well-known.–not a “WHO??” outfit.

  19. Bitterlaw says:

    Next Tuesday night will be epic. Some posters are going to be extremely wrong. We just don’t know they will be, yet.

    We should give out the award for most over-the-top statement. In 2004, I read comments that the Democrats were finished as a national party. That was wrong.

  20. RB says:

    21—here ya go!

    Lafayette wiil beat Lehigh!!!

  21. Phil says:

    Mnw, thanks. I looked them up. They actually have home offices in Scottsdale, Arizona. The were commissioned by the ABC affiliate Ch 15 in Phoenix to poll the race. I believe this is their third and final poll.

  22. Bitterlaw says:

    RB – In a rare development, Lafayette and Lehigh both suck this year.

  23. Cash Cow TM says:

    Trend lines of different polls in U.S. Senate race in AZ

    ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights*:
    7/23–Sinema +4
    9/5–McSally +3
    10/1–McSally +6
    10/28–McSally +7 (So McSally on the upswing)
    FOX News:
    9/8–Sinema +3
    9/29– Sinema +2
    10/27–TIE (So McSally on the upswing)
    9/11–Sinema +7
    10/24–Sinema +4 (So McSally on the upswing)
    NBC News/Marist:
    6/17–Sinema +11
    9/16–Sinema +3
    10/23–Sinema +6 (Sinema lost/then regained BigMo)
    CBS News/YouGov:
    6/19–Sinema +8
    10/2–Sinema +3
    10/23*–Sinema +3 (Sinema lead cut into…)
    *Most recent poll shows 5 point adv. for Sinema for Male voters
    NY Times/Siena:
    10/15-10/19–McSally +2
    (no previous polls)

  24. Bitterlaw says:

    I think it would be better to be winning the urban vote since there should be more people there. Winning Nowhereville by a high percentage does not help if Nowhereville does not have as many voters as Democrat City.

  25. MichiganGuy says:

    Early Voting:
    Republican tossups:

    Republican Lean (D)
    Republican Lean (R)
    I would say Republicans are looking good so far. Yes, I know we don’t know how the Indies are voting but, at least our side is energize to get out and vote early.

  26. Cash Cow TM says:

    One report I read said that Sinema is dropping because of two things:

    1. the vote on Kavanaugh already happened
    2. the invasion caravan of illegals heading thru Mexico on wy to U.S. (and polls show the people of AZ are VERY concerned about this due to where the state is located….)
    I hope McSally has a good game plan for last week of the campaign….

    Could not find any info about Male support for Sinema vs. McSally on the other poll internals.
    Sadly, Males tend to vote for the more attractive female candidate…(Females do the same for the more attractive male candidates..).
    I am betting on McSally winning due to the two things listed above.

  27. Tina says:

    There are two polls showing is breaking towards Rs.p
    You gov and Reuters.

    I have not seen the actual results, or if already mentioned in the other thread.

    I do know Nv Is lean R.

  28. Mr.Vito says:

    Looked at the early numbers out of Miami-Dade. They are more like 2014 numbers than 2016 numbers…

    If you extrapolated them to 2016 early vote turnout, the Dems are the same, but you would have to take away 40000 independents and give them to the GOP.

  29. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Comparing all the polling absolutely proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that no one really knows what will happen on November 6th.

  30. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw says:
    October 31, 2018 at 10:40 pm

    AZ SEN

    Ohio Predictive Insights:

    McSally 52
    Sinema 45
    Green candidate 1
    Here is the link:

  31. Phil says:

    Heller needs to pick it up in Washoe County. I looked at his 2012 race and he carried Washoe by 11 points. Now, I expect him to carry the County based on indies but with the early votes Rs slightly behind there that could be tough to get that margin.

    Considering that in the same election Obama at the top of the ticket was carrying the County by three points you would have to say there was a fair amount of ticket splitting among Democrats for Heller to have done so well.

    Btw, Vito, do you know what the final early voting numbers were in Washoe in 2012?

  32. Mr.Vito says:

    Yes. In 2012 the GOP lost EV Washoe by about 650 votes, but won overall by about 880 with VBM included.

  33. Tina says:

    …”Florida is a “F***ed up,” “cracker state,” “you have to appeal to white guilt”…

    (Tallahassee) Project Veritas Action Fund has released undercover video from Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum’s campaign, revealing his election strategy includes making empty promises to voters. This is the seventh undercover video report Project Veritas has released in a series revealing secrets and lies from political campaigns in 2018. (continue reading)


  34. Phil says:

    Vito, so we really arn’t Seeing that much of a difference in Washoe with the party numbers so far? Would tat be accurate to say?

  35. Mr.Vito says:

    Yes. During the first week, it was the number of Democrats turning out from Clark that were lagging.

  36. Mr.Vito says:

    Repost from the other day:

    Interesting stat from NV Week1.

    Heller won in 2012.

    EV+VBM 2018 Turnout for Week1 relative to 2012:
    Clark: 83.7%
    Washoe: 94.0%
    CowCountry: 94.0%

    So, looking closer at the Clark numbers:

    Clark Dems: 76.2%
    Clark GOP: 91.4%
    Clark Others: 90.2%

  37. Mr.Vito says:

    Just so everyone is aware, the word ‘cracker’ is frequently used endearingly in Florida…

    The Florida Cracker Cafe is just down the road from here.

    The term has nothing to do with slavery.

    I assume the person in the video above meant it in the perjorative sense considering the context?

  38. lisab says:

    i think it is important to define what a “victory” looks like for each party before next tuesday, or else too many experts will say they actually predicted what happened, e.g. the gop won a senate seat, that is a huge victory!

    i would say something along these lines is accurate:

    major gop victory: the gop wins 3 or more senate seats and keeps the house

    minor gop victory: the gop wins 3 or more senate seats and loses the house by less than 5 seats

    minor dem victory: the dems win the house by less than 5 seats and the gop wins 2 or less senate seats

    medium dem victory: the dems win the house by more than 5 seats and the gop wins 2 or less senate seats

    major dem victory: the dems win the house by more than 5 seats and the the senate

  39. lisab says:

    personally i think it will be a minor dem victory,

    30 house seats

    with 2 senate gop gains

    although i hope it is 3 senate flips, i’s like to see mcsally win.

  40. Phil says:

    Exactly my prediction, Lisa.

  41. Mr.Vito says:

    I got D+2335 from Clark EV tonight.

  42. michael corleone says:

    #44 – spread is smaller than yesterday. I’ll take it

  43. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    41. My guesstimate is about the same:

    20-30 House seat pick-up for Democrats.

    2-3 seat gain for the Republicans in the Senate.

  44. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    From The Hill:

    “More GOP voters associate with President Trump than they do with the Republican party itself, underscoring the degree to which Trump has taken over the GOP brand, according to a new poll.
    The Harris Poll, conducted with Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies, found that 46 percent of Republican registered voters surveyed said they associate with Trump, compared to 25 percent who say they associate with GOP itself.
    Eighteen percent said they associate with both, and 9 percent replied they associate with either.
    The Democratic Party and GOP approval ratings, the poll found, are equal for the first time in over a year. The parties’ approval is tied at 41 percent, after the GOP’s approval rating has been trending upward since December.
    Trump consistently retains extremely high levels of Republican support, with polls putting him at around 90 percent approval among Republicans. “

  45. MichiganGuy says:

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports
    19m19 minutes ago

    Jon Ralston Retweeted Sorceror43

    In Clark, Dems won by 10 points, added 2,300 to firewall, more than 33,000 now with two days to go.

  46. I’d have more confidence in Schweikart if he didn’t routinely screw up basic facts that he could check with Google — like which days the polls are open in FL.

  47. Tina says:

    Jon Ralston
    Not going to wait for Washoe to get its act together. Updated blog, will put Washoe and rurals in tomorrow, the usual drill. The Dems are looking solid but not overwhelming in Clark, probably won’t get to 40K firewall.…
    View photo ·

    Ralston Reid is going wobbly in his Drats.

  48. Marv says:

    Comm check

  49. Marv says:

    Well, my IPhone worked, let’s try my IPad.

  50. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    In case anyone was wondering, Republicans are crushing Democrats by 20 points in early voting in that Assembly district @DennisHof was running in. So those folks would rather vote for a dead pimp than a live Democrat. (A Republican will be appointed.)

    What does he expect in a state that elected Harry Reid.

  51. MichiganGuy says:

    Marv, just curious had did you fix the problem?

  52. Marv says:

    Great….now, someone please explain Ralston’s 40,000 vote Clark County firewall. Is he saying that the Dems need to be 40,000 votes ahead of the combined vote total of the rest of the state on Election Day morning to win?

  53. Florida Guy says:

    If GOP wins TX, TN and ND, and then wins either AZ or NV, bad night for Dems.

  54. MichiganGuy says:

    Ralston says the dems need between 35,000 – 40,000 vote lead in Clark County to have a chance to win the Senate race.

  55. Marv says:


    This is a different IPad from the one I had been using. Still can’t post from my desktop. I used to post from it regularly

  56. MichiganGuy says:

    Marv, I know if this website can’t see your IP address; it will not let you post. If you are using a VPN or ad blocker or a firewall, antivirus trying turning them off.

  57. Marv says:


    Thanks, what’s the current lead? And, does the 35-40k number include Election Day final total in Clark Co.

  58. Marv says:


    I thought that might be the problem, but I have the VPN on now and I get through.

  59. MichiganGuy says:

    Marv, the dems lead in Clark county is 33,000. The 35-40k is just for early voting. Vito, could explain better than I that the 35-40k lead will not be enough to win the Senate seat. Republicans numbers are way up this year.

  60. MichiganGuy says:

    Marv, the only other thing I would suggest is make sure you have the right e-mail address for your poster name.

  61. MichiganGuy says:

    Currently, Ralston is trying to raise money for his newspaper. I think he is purposely deceiving his liberal followers so they will continue to visit his website and donate to his goal.

  62. lisab says:

    If GOP wins TX, TN and ND, and then wins either AZ or NV, bad night for Dems.

    yes, i think if the gop wins 3 senate seats, and keeps the house close

    it will be a minor victory for the gop

    i am guessing that on any issue you could see up to 3 dem defections

  63. Marv says:

    Through Wed, the Clark Co EV + VBM Dem advantage was
    28,928. According to Ralston, the Dems netted 2335 today. That brings the total Dem Clark Co lead to 31263. Where did he get his 33k number?

  64. Marv says:

    Goodnight folks.

  65. Marv says:

    Ralston’s Clark Co current Dem lead is correct.
    It is Dem+33,283 with Thursday and Friday yet to go.

  66. ReadyFirst says:

    Yeah baby, 1st Place tonight and a 2nd and another 1st in Halloween costume contests this weekend. Won some decent cash as Guardians of The Galaxy. What did I miss tonight?

  67. lisab says:

    sorry readyfirst, you cannot beat julstol in salem

  68. ReadyFirst says:

    71. Guess I’m missing part of that reference lisab. I know julstol is a poster here.

  69. ReadyFirst says:

    Nice! Good morning, here’s your doughnut, enjoy. Desantis, 47-46 Gillum. Scott 50-48 Nelson.

  70. ReadyFirst says:

    And here’s your coffee:
    “The firm touts that it “nailed both the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, correctly predicting (Donald) Trump‘s margin in Florida and his win in Wisconsin.”

  71. MichiganGuy says:

    Dems won Washoe EV by 14 last night. GOP won absentees by 69.

  72. Bitterlaw says:

    48. Interesting. I was a Republican before Trump was President. I am a Republican despite Trump being President. I will be a Republican after Trump is President.

  73. MichiganGuy says:

    Bitter, you didn’t get the memo? They renamed the Republican Party to the Trump Party. In other news. Dems leave Nevada statewide by 11,251.

  74. MichiganGuy says:

    ha, I wish they would leave but no it should be lead.

  75. Hugh says:

    Much better analysis than you get from poor old Joe who is trying to pump up the libs spirits on NV. NV will be red.

  76. jaichind says:

    @73 ReadyFirst

    Seems to indicate it is Nelson 50-48 Scott.

    Also this poll seems to indicate that NPA are breaking for Dems. Overall I am not sure this is that good of a news. It seems to indicate that despite good EV number for FL it will be at best very close for both races.

  77. mnw says:

    RF 73

    RE: Florida Politics poll:

    Gillum leads NPP by 14-points. Gulp. Sample is +2 DEM on generic.

    I like early morning here, because the trolls usually don’t take over the site until the afternoon.

  78. Todd McCain says:


    OH Predictive

    McSally 52
    Sinema 45


    Manchin 45
    Morissey 40

  79. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Repass West Virginia Poll has Joe Manchin(D) 45%, Morrisey(R) 40% and the Libertarian at a whopping 11%. Is this another race where the Libertarian will spoil a Republican win?
    To believe yesterday’s FOX News Poll of IN is to conclude that Manchin is more vulnerable than Donnelly in IN. That’s not believable IMHO!

  80. Tina says:

    NV EV update 1130pm 10/31 — Clark in except absentees; Washoe and some rurals in. D lead at 13.2k. I expect it to come down to 12.7k when all rurals are in. Still on pace to a 15k D lead by Fri, not enough for Rosen. Only 2 more days of EV. Looking like a Heller win.
    View photo ·

  81. Skippy says:

    No good VBM + In-Person numbers for Democrats in Florida this morning. Should have been a much bigger jump…much bigger for the Dems.

    There is no doubt Non-Affiliated/INDY voters are breaking for Nelson & Gillum..but dam..the Democrats have to be so discouraged bout their combined early vote numbers by party.

  82. Todd McCain says:

    I like Rick Scott’s chances a lot; this is the type of race he wins.

  83. Todd McCain says:

    Wasn’t a jump at all? I see GOP now leads by close to 64K with all EV combined.

  84. Tina says:

    That Az poll seems where the race is at.

    Plus 7 could happen as Enema has cratered.

    I had this over since the pink tutu ad.

    The Rs are doing really well in the Ev.

  85. Tina says:

    Isn’t the 64k figure, what it was yesterday, or fairly close?

  86. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    This has to be good news for Rosendale(R) in the Montana Senate race. The Libertarian candidate, Breckinridge, has thrown his support to Rosendale.(Look at the Breckinridge photo in the article–Jeremiah Johnson!)
    Remember, in Tester’s(D-MT) last two wins, he never received 50% of the vote and the Libertarian candidate acted as the spoiler.
    This race is a true toss-up and moving rightward by the day..

  87. MichiganGuy says:

    Skippy, you’re the only one that believes Non-Affiliated/INDY voters are breaking for Nelson & Gillum LOL

  88. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    DeSantis and Scott are in decent shape in their FL races.
    I think that what the pollsters are missing is the huge crossover vote of registered Democrats to Republican candidates in Northern Florida.On every election night, the media is always “surprised” by the massive vote toward the GOP in that area.

  89. Skippy says:

    Florida EV + VBM – November 3, 2016

    Republicans +11,886

    Florida EV + VBM – November 1, 2016

    Republicans +63,537

    Biggest gap yet between same day number of 2016/2018 favoring Republicans.

  90. Skippy says:


    Florida EV + VBM – November 1, 2018

    Republicans +63,537

  91. Skippy says:

    Michigan Guy,

    How many polls do you need to see for you to get it through your heads that Non-Affiliated/INDY voters are breaking toward Democrats?

    Most evidence shows the Republicans are coming out in bigger numbers than I believe pollsters are weighing their polls at…vs….NPA are choosing the Dems in pretty big numbers.

  92. JeffP says:

    Okay…GOP early vote is going great on many fronts that is reality. I put money down on Braun, Rosendale, McSally, Hawley, Heller and Scott.

  93. MichiganGuy says:

    Skippy the poll only sampled 99 NPA. That is a very small sample size to make a general statement that NPA are breaking for Gillum! LOL

  94. Skippy says:

    Michigan Guy,

    True, but it’s the same result in a vast majority of the Florida polls..and quite honestly most polls nation wide have shown.

    Don’t just throw away info, or be blind to it because it’s info you don’t like.

    Republican base is turning out in numbers vs Dems.
    NPA breaking toward Democrats.

    Will see what wins out.

  95. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    What is the denographics of a Floridian who registers as an Independent? Are they concentrated in a certain part of the State?
    Threason why I am confident that Dean Heller(R-NV) prevails in NV is because Independents in that State are Clive Bundy types and like The Donald a lot.
    What are your thoughts about my comment in above #93?

  96. MichiganGuy says:

    #99 Skippy, are those the same polls that said, Hillary was going to win Florida?

  97. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    From the insufferable and eternally defeatist Moshem at Red Racing Horses:

    “I personally think Ds pick up 40-50 seats.”

  98. Albert Hodges says:

    Anybody who thinks that Independent and nonaffliated voters are voting DEM by significant margins are not offering honest opinions but are only trying to make inflammatory comments they cannot prove to annoy people.

    They COULD be voting DEM but NOT by large margins…there are reasons why people do not register by the traditional parties…usually it is related to the social issues of the GOP or the socialism of the DEMS….there is NO WAY those folks are going to choose Gillum by LARGE margins.

    Why post BS just to annoy people?

  99. Skippy says:

    Michigan Guy,

    I understand. But does that mean we don’t look at any polls now that don’t show us what we want to see? Really?

    Come on man.

    It could very well be the Republican base turnout withstands the NPA vote and Scott wins. But it’s ok that we discuss what the majority of the polls are telling us..incorrect or not.

    Unless we just want to post things

  100. Skippy says:

    Albert Hodges,

    I have not been posting info to annoy people.

    I have posted lots of info, including today, which shows Republican base is turning out.

    I’ve also done it as a gentleman. A God fearing Republican for my 50 years of life.

    But if we can only post information which makes us feel good this place, and its comments, loses much of its value.

  101. mnw says:

    102 Sheeple

    Moshe is the one who got banned at RRH for a day for calling me an idiot. He is a super-partisan DEM. Sometimes he posts a really hot-eyed rant… & then deletes it, presumably because he doesn’t want to be banned again. ROGUEMAPPER is every bit as bad, btw.

  102. MichiganGuy says:

    Skippy, I just find it odd that you keep harping on the fact that the polls are showing NPA voters breaking towards the democrats. You say you support the Republicans yet the last couple of days all you want to talk about is NPA? Even when other posters here have challenge you on it. You don’t want to stop talking about it; which makes me wonder if, you are one of those concern trolls?

  103. Hugh says:

    Fwiw. EV in FL is 80% 50 and over. The poll Skippy provides shows 70% 50 and over. The indies you poll will determines the results polling younger Indies will create a more dem leaning result. Interestingly the poll shows almost no switch voters meaning the gap between Dems and rep in EV is real. Election day will go heavy Republican as the Broward Dade and Palm Beach vote will be mostly done.

  104. Skippy says:

    Michigan Guy,

    Ok buddy, just for you I will only post positive information until Election Day. I don’t want to hurt your fragile heart.

  105. MichiganGuy says:

    Skippy, you’re free to post whatever you want this is not my website. I’m just saying most Republicans don’t spend their time thinking about the negatives. Most Republicans I know are positive people. The democrats are the negative ones but, if it makes you feel better to worry about the NPA vote than go ahead and post all you want.

  106. Albert Hodges says:


    You certainly have conducted yourself as a gentleman and in non-inflammatory language.

    However, please CITE the multiple polls that show that Unaffliated voters are supporting the DEMS by LARGE or SIZABLE margins.

    What I am saying you are doing is trying to make an argument based on ONE poll that you use to make RIDICULOUS implications just to jerk people’s chains.

    You know you are doing it. And even the best chefs cannot make chicken salad out of chicken manure.

    You are just wrapping your posts up in polite verbiage to try to be more effective in your eye-poking.

  107. Skippy says:

    Albert Hodges,

    I have linked some of the polls which shows Unaffiliated voters breaking toward democrats. Just go to real clear politics and look at the AZ Senate Polls..the FL Senate Polls…IND Senate Polls.

    And by the way..this is not unusual. The party out of power in midterms usually grabs the Unaffiliated voters.

    I have also spent every morning posting Florida Early Voting statistics which is showing quite clearly Republicans base is outperforming Dem base.

    Man, you guys are sensitive.

    Instead of trying to get someone to stop honestly analyzing polls.. why don’t you guys put your big boy pants on and grow the hell up.

  108. Redmen4ever says:

    A way to extrapolate from the Early Vote to running vote totals, when only the partisan affiliation of early voters is known:

    To get an idea of how other voters are breaking in California, I looked at the cross-tabs in three recent polls (PPI [Generic Congressional], SUSA [Governor] and Berkeley [Governor]).

    Among all voters, the Democrats enjoy an average margin of 17.5 percent. Among Other voters (neither Republican nor Democrat), they enjoy an only slightly lower margin of 16.0 percent. (Ds and Rs have almost the same percentage of defectors, 6.0 for Ds and 6.7 for Rs.)

    Since CA is a D+12 state, a reasonable assumption is that within Congressional Districts Other voters break by 1.5 points times the Cook Partisan Index to the Democrat.

  109. MichiganGuy says:

    Florida Senate:
    Nelson 49%
    Scott 47%
    St.Pete Poll
    Political Party:
    Democratic 945 = 38.3%
    Republican 958 = 38.8%
    Hmmmm, I’m think based on the early voting there will be a lot more than .5% Republicans voting than Democrats.

  110. MichiganGuy says:

    SB thinking

  111. MichiganGuy says:

    Skippy says:
    November 1, 2018 at 9:22 am

    “grow the hell up.”
    Well, I guess the God fearing Republican has had enough of being polite. LOL

  112. DW says:

    RRH is all chummy this morning in agreement that Dems will net 40-50 seats. I have no idea what math they use to reach the conclusion that TX_23, NE_02, WA_05 and many similar seats flip blue.

  113. Todd McCain says:

    Guys, we will find out soon enough.

  114. DW says:


    Manchin 47%
    Morrisey 42%


    Ojeda (D) 45%
    Miller (R) 52%

    RRH wise men say WV_03 flips

  115. Bitterlaw says:

    Part of the problem with trying to predict what Independents will do is that there is no set reason why they are Independent. I have posted before that almost all of the Independents in Philadelphia and the suburbs are really smug Dems who pretend to be non-partisan but vote for Dems. In other areas they may be different.

  116. Redmen4ever says:

    Following up on post 113, from these data from California, I don’t see any evidence to argue Rs are defecting in much larger numbers than Ds, or that other voters are breaking more toward the Ds than the topline figure. It’s a GOTV election. We get our people to vote we win. They get their people to vote they win. In competitive districts, if both sides get their people to vote, it comes down to a knife fight, to quote Mtch McConnell.

  117. mnw says:

    114 MG

    RE: the St. Pete poll:

    How about this aspect of the poll? The sample was 54% women & 44% men.

    An appx 5% difference would be typical, not 10%.

  118. Todd McCain says:

    The already voted number of 53-45 doesn’t fall in line at all with what the actual EV is.

  119. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, I’m wondering who paid for that poll?

  120. Redmen4ever says:

    Manchin, a beloved throwback Democrat, below 50 at this point in the race in consecutive non-partisan polls.

    Could be the next Breseden.

    It is not good for the aura of a beloved throwback Democrat to be tainted.

  121. Todd McCain says:

    Trump in WV tomorrow.

  122. Todd McCain says:

    Starting to really like Rosendale’s chances.

  123. hugh says:

    in Florida due to the relative older age the m f split may be okay. However this poll is worse than the one Skippy mentioned. It has under 50 voting at a 36% pace, when they are currently at a 20% pace. It too is junk. I will not try to reweight it as I do not want to be Polaris. However, I thought Polaris provided value and I wish he would come back. Also, the rep to dem breakdown is junk. I look forward to this all being over. Notice the polls are now all in the MOE, so the pollster can cheerlead and be right even when the election result is wrong. It is hard to be a republican. But again revenge is a dish best served cold.

  124. hugh says:

    i meant to say the 50 and under vote

  125. DW says:

    And the wise men at RRH have declared Scott pretty well finished. It’s doom, gloom, grim, and all over at RRH. Of course they were even worse in 2016.

  126. Todd McCain says:



    Blackburn 52-44

    Cruz 50-47

  127. DW says:

    RCP moved MN_07 from Lean D to Tossup. Curious. Do they know something we don’t know?

  128. mnw says:

    The OPI poll that showed McSally +7 was stale. It was taken a week ago & only released last night, I read.

  129. hugh says:

    probably 60% plus of the Florida vote is in, so the demographic make up is not going to change dramatically other than over the weekend the dems will add votes and in the general we will add many more.

  130. Todd McCain says:

    I am pretty confident in McSally’s chances either way. I don’t see how Dems can overcome a 113,000 GOP EV lead.

  131. MichiganGuy says:

    Three new Emerson battleground polls find two US Senators in vulnerable positions; in Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Inc) is at 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided.

    In West Virginia US Senator Joe Manchin (D-Inc) at 47%, Patrick Morrisey (R) 42%, 8% undecided. Manchin has a slightly more positive image in the state with a 46% favorable/ 43% unfavorable while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%, however President Trump is popular in WV with a 56% favorable/ 39% unfavorable.

    In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) 52%, Phil Bredesen (D) 44%, 3% undecided.

  132. Tina says:

    Now Cruz is in twubble.

    Phil, you predicted a “close poll.”

    Must be the Muh index dents breaking hard to Beta Male. and Rs, who early voted, for Beta. /s

  133. mnw says:

    RAS today: 49/50 Trump JA

  134. Redmen4ever says:

    MN07 – There may be a district poll I don’t know about. But the state generic poll taken in conjunction with the recent Change Research had very promising results. As a consequence of this and other state generic polls in Minnesota, my model changed the rating of the district to toss-up.

  135. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Yes that TX Poll from Emerson is a doozy. It shows Abbot(R) up only 8 in the Governor’s race.

  136. MichiganGuy says:

    What happened to the Arizona ballot statistics?

  137. mnw says:

    MN-07: Most Republican district (R+12) in America to be represented by a DEM

  138. Waingro says:

    “The OPI poll that showed McSally +7 was stale. It was taken a week ago & only released last night, I read.”

    Yeah, I was just about to come here to write the same thing. RCP has it as the 4th most recent poll in its averages:

    Although it doesn’t include the poll from yesterday from Reuters that had McSally at +2. Bottom line: This is going to be a VERY close race.

  139. Waingro says:

    #136, “while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%”

    I don’t buy this aspect of that poll at all. Has there been any other polling showing Morrisey this horrendously unpopular in WV?

  140. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #122- mnw
    In the St. Pete Florida Poll, it claims that Nelson(D) will receive 19+% of the Republican vote. SAY WHAT?

  141. jason says:


    “Cesar Sayoc had spent months planning to mail pipe bombs to Democrats, prosecutors have claimed
    They found shipping labels saved on his laptop and searches for addresses which date back to July 28
    The laptop was found inside his Trumpmobile where he had been living

    It was also revealed on Monday that Sayoc kept a list of more than 100 elected officials and others, who investigators believe were intended target

    Attorney Jamie Benjamin said the charges ‘flimsy’ and accused the government of trying Sayoc in the media, forcing judgment before the case has gone to trial”

  142. Tina says:

    Yes, 19 percent of the R vote. Because, you know, Rs are voting early….for Ds.

  143. Cash Cow TM says:

    Even though I am deeply involved in things like finding people who mail bombs thru the mail, locating downed jetliners, hunting for Bigfoot and UFOs, keeping one eye on monkeys and another on deer…I DO still research to find nuggets on elections.

    1. “The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm is pulling about two weeks worth of ad reservations from West Virginia in October.”

    [maybe they think Manchin cruises, or maybe the recent big money dump by Bloomberg on behalf of Joe takes the place of the D senate money?]
    2. Manchin and Morrisey will be having their ONLY debate TONIGHT at 7 p.m. carried on TV on WV Metronews.

    [Morrisey, IMO unwisely, backed out of one other debate that was scheduled earlier. Morrisey appears to putting all his eggs in one debate basket, and a hail Mary of relying on Trump to pull him…]
    3. An internal “poll conducted by 1892 Polling for Morrisey’s campaign…shows Morrisey and Manchin tied at with 45 percent of the vote. Ten percent of the voters surveyed said they are undecided.

    In this poll, Morrisey narrowly leads Manchin among independent voters by 4 points, 41 to 37 percent. But, nearly a quarter — 22 percent — of independent voters remain undecided.”

    “The poll was conducted from Sept. 24-25 and surveyed 500 likely voters in West Virginia..”[WOW, that is an old internal…]
    4. President Trump is coming back for another WV visit to boost Morrisey.

    [will be in Huntington, which is part of the WV CD3 and will also no doubt benefit the R in that race (Carol Miller).

    Also, Morrisey is NOT doing well among voters in WV CD3 which IMO is residual damage where his forces unnecessarily savaged and demeaned WV CD3 congressman Evan Jenkins in the R primary in May.]
    5.Another NEW POLL by ” MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia Poll shows Manchin up by 5 percentage points over Morrisey.

    The poll shows 45 percent of likely voters favoring Manchin, 40 percent favoring Morrisey, 11 percent for Libertarian Rusty Hollen and 5 percent undecided.”

    [THERE IS NO WAY THE LIBERTARIAN WILL GET 11% OF THE VOTE! But there ARE a lot of far left Ds who are mad at and say they will abandon Manchin over Kavanaugh vote.]

    That’s a smaller gap than the last version of the poll in August, which showed Manchin ahead by 8 points. It’s also closer than some other national polls have been showing.

    And the 5 points is right at the West Virginia Poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
    6. WV early voting will far surpass EV in 2014. So far, statewide early voting by registered Rs is 10,000 voters higher than this point in time in 2014.

    Early voters for registered Ds is 10,000 LOWER than at this point of time in 2014 early voting.

    [The Rs do seem to have a good ground game…Walt usually votes early but has not done so yet–and EVERY DAY he gets a robo call to urge him to go vote early.]

    7. In my part of the state, the Ds have chosen to fill the ballot for legislative seats (they often do not put up candidates or waste money in big R districts here or in districts with popular R incumbents. (In 3 of his 7 races, Walt had no D challenger despite his delegate district being a VERY heavy D majority district). And this year many of the D candidates are very liberal, far left LOONS. I think this may boost R turnout here in this part of WV. THAT will also benefit Morrisey since he is from this region of the state.
    [Unless his debate performance moves the needle. Manchin is a “master debater” so I do not expect him to stumble. Plus, Manchin campaign has done a good job to define Morrisey in a bad light.

    If I had been running Morrisey campaign I would NOT have savaged Jenkins in the primary, and I would have the TV shot of Trump’s State of the Union Address where Trump mentions boosting COAL production and the Rs all clap and stand and the TV shows A closeup of Manchin starting to clap and starting to stand. And then he looks over at Sen. Chuck Schumer and all the other Ds sitting on their hands and then Manchin SITS BACK DOWN!

  144. jason says:

    I thing this will be a blue wave or no wave.

    If its a no wave then Scott, McSally, Braun, Hawley, Heller will all win.

    If its a blue wave they could all lose.

    Skippy has been selling the Indy vote is going to the Dems but the evidence of that is very flimsy.

    I think by now most people voting know that if they vote Dem they are electing Nancy Pelosi and possibly even Chuck Schumer to speaker and majority leader.

    Somehow I don’t think the people who rejected Hillary are embracing Pelosi. They question is will they turn out to vote.

  145. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #141- MG
    It takes up to 30 seconds for the data to appear on the site.
    Below the first chart is a history of past voter turnout Statewide for every two year cycle going back to 2006.The GOP to Democrat turnout has been GOP +8-+12 during this time and the GOP had never lossed any of these elections on a federal level.(I believe the notorious Janet Napolitano(D) was voted Governor in 2006.)

  146. Todd McCain says:


    Nelson: 49
    Scott: 47

    Gillum: 48
    DeSantis: 46

  147. jason says:

    In my area there are a lot of lawn signs that say “Support President Trump, vote Republican” so there is no shying away from Trump here. You see some Wolf or Casey signs on highways or intersections, but lawn signs are about 100 to 1 LOU or Scott Wagner. In fact 100-1 is generous, I have yet to see a Casey or Wolf lawn sign, but you see hundreds of Barletta and Wagner signs. Trump may be unpopular in the ritzy Philly suburbs according to Bitter, but he is still popular in South Central PA.

  148. jason says:

    Nelson: 49
    Scott: 47

    Gillum: 48
    DeSantis: 46

    These are encouraging polls. I can’t help thinking there is at least a small pro Dem bias which would wipe out that small lead.

  149. Phil says:

    Abbott up by 8?


  150. jason says:

    “The OPI poll that showed McSally +7 was stale.”

    Not that stale since there was early voting going on when it was taken.

    Polls are a snapshot in time. If McSally was really up 7 during a certain period, that would be reflected in the corresponding early vote.

  151. gameboy says:

    #152 I am dating a woman who lives in South Philly. The streets are plastered with LOU signs. Must be an Italian affinity thing…..

  152. dblaikie says:

    I don’t know about the other polls but I believe that the Fox polls are media driven because they want to drive up viewership. No better way to do that then have a bunch of close races according to the polls. CNN just is all in with the resistance and I refuse to even consider them.

  153. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    2h2 hours ago

    FL absentees/early
    Rs 1,555,374 (41.7%)
    Ds 1,491,837 (40%)
    Is 677,040 (18%)

    Rs lead up since yesterday by 600 votes
    Ds picked up 3,000 in early voting yesterday
    D lead on election day 2016 96,450
    Rs net advantage over 2016 so far: 159,987

  154. Cash Cow TM says:

    “Waingro says:
    November 1, 2018 at 10:19 am
    #136, “while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%”

    I don’t buy this aspect of that poll at all. Has there been any other polling showing Morrisey this horrendously unpopular in WV?”
    MANY POLLS show Morrisey has high negatives.
    Manchin has been pounding on Morrisey relentlessly to define him as:
    1. a non-WV guy who does not have “WV values”
    2. a former lobbyist himself for “Big Pharma” (and his wife was/is too) and thus Morrisey is ‘personally and single-handedly responsible for the opioid epidemic in WV.’

    And Morrisey does not come across as nearly as personable and folksy as does Manchin.

    IMO, Manchin will win because he draws too many Rs to cross over and vote for him.
    Morrisey won the AG race because his D opponent was a long-time AG incumbent who had made lots of missteps over the years in how he ran the AG office–and THAT incumbent AG had bigger negatives than did Morrisey.

  155. Waingro says:

    Florida is absolutely fascinating. Polls have shifted to the D’s the last few weeks, but EV totals continue to show R strength.

    Until I see the actual returns, I am not going to buy R’s are coming out in droves to vote for D’s, and I still have failed to see any reliable data on “independent”/”unaffiliated voters.

  156. jason says:

    Barletta and Wagner will probably end up losing by 10.

    They have both been outspent heavily in TV ads.

    The ads against Wagner are basically “he is evil because he is a rich businessman” and the ads against Barletta are basically “he wants all of you to die without health insurance”.

    Wolf is an incompetent ass with zero to show for in 4 years while Casey is a flaming liberal pretending to be a moderate (successfully).


  157. Waingro says:

    #159, thanks, Cash. So in other words, it sounds like Morrisey is a pretty bad candidate. Oh well. Another 6 years of the “centrist” fraud.

  158. jason says:

    Until I see the actual returns, I am not going to buy R’s are coming out in droves to vote for D’s, and I still have failed to see any reliable data on “independent”/”unaffiliated voters.”

    Well, Skippy “knows somebody”, so there is that.

  159. Cash Cow TM says:

    Keep in mind that in WV 56% of residents/voters are over 55 years old. And WV is one of the ‘whitest’ states in the nation.

    Also, factor in that WV has TWO constitutional amendments on the ballot.
    –One dealing with abortion restrictions
    –one dealing with giving legislature budget oversight over the WV judical branch budget (LIKE THEY DO IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND ALL OTHER 57 STATES]

  160. hugh says:

    it is easy to understand the FL polling. Stay with the voter models based on a blue wave in the face of EV evidence. The preferred methodology seems to be over polling young voters and under polling old voters. Keep it close enough that they stay within MOE. Then they can say they missed the GOP enthusiasm and were surprised that the children did not vote at expected levels. Doing this keeps their paymaster happy, and helps their team which would be totally demoralized right now but for the polls.

  161. JeffP says:


    1. Yes independent voters trend toward party out of power in mid terms.
    2. But the left has gone socialist and has nothing to run on other than resist Trump. Some Indys will not vote…too far left.
    3. Trumps popularity in rurals matches no other President in our life time and won over a ton of Dems in typically blue states. This is still a huge factor. Is that considered in polling?
    4. Obviously EV is going great for GOP all over the place…better than any of us would have thought. This is not reflected in the polls.
    5. Trumps approval for minority’s has increased.
    6. Kavanaugh and Caravan have turned this into a national election.

  162. Cash Cow TM says:

    “Waingro says:
    November 1, 2018 at 11:00 am
    #159, thanks, Cash. So in other words, it sounds like Morrisey is a pretty bad candidate. Oh well. Another 6 years of the “centrist” fraud.”
    Evan Jenkins had much better numbers of positive/negative and LOTS fewer things Manchin could attack him on.

    And Jenkins is a good guy. Morrisey is a good conservative, too and has done a great job as WV AG…I was an ardent support of Morrisey in his races for AG. But he has some things that are easy to do attack ads about. Morrisey campaign savaged Jenkins in May primary because he was a former D when he was in the State legislature…

    R primary voters went for party purity and picked conservative Morrisey over conservative Jenkins (and other primary candidates). They were not looking ahead to think who might be better R candidate in the GE.


  163. Waingro says:

    #165, good stuff, hugh. Thanks.

  164. JeffP says:

    A Trump national prime time address on the caravan and immigration and it’s over for the Dems.

  165. Mr.Vito says:

    “The campaign mailers, which don’t state who paid for them as required by election laws, criticized the Republican candidate on gun rights and other issues and promoted other right-leaning candidates in an apparent effort to syphon votes from his campaign.

    A similar illegal mailer was recently distributed in Montana’s Senate race, prompting Libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge to endorse his Republican opponent Matt Rosendale over Democrat Jon Tester as a stand against “dark money” in politics.”

  166. Chicon says:

    I don’t think we can extrapolate the age of early voters to the total voter makeup. Old people tend to vote early.

  167. Mr.Vito says:

    “I don’t think we can extrapolate the age of early voters to the total voter makeup. Old people tend to vote early.”

    Yup. A large number of 30-45 year olds in Florida vote on election day… huge numbers in the tech and medical fields here.

  168. hugh says:

    Mr Vito. If so they must be gop young voters in FL, because in FL we always win election day voting and generally by quite a bit.

  169. Mr.Vito says:

    It’s a mixture.

  170. Skippy says:

    Florida, from Wednesday, November 3rd, 2016 to Thursday, November 4th, 2016 the Democrats gained 10,000 EV + VBM on the Republicans.

    Democrats need to get on the move today and gain some 15,000 votes on the Republicans when the numbers get posted tomorrow morning. It’s go time for the Democrats. If they don’t get going today it will indicate very strongly their base is not keeping up with Republican base when it comes to enthusiasm.

  171. Mr.Vito says:

    This is what is perplexing about the polls this year… they show enthusiasm is with men, older voters, whites, upper income, partisans…. exactly what we think we see in early voting, except we see an R advantage as you would expect from those demographics.

    But then the topline will seem to conflict with what we think we see. This is where the R crossover and independents breaking to D narratives are coming from.

    But, the polls overstated D support in the suburbs and among women in 2016 (and hence among independents) while understating R support in the rurals, so the question becomes why not now?

    Well, maybe not now… Or maybe so again…

    It’s possible the GOP support is hiding in the undecideds, or that they aren’t answering the polls… I would like to hear a pollster say, “this is how we screwed up 2016 and how we fixed it now”.

    Until then, there is just a lot of conflicting information… and one side or the other is going to be very disappointed.

    And I’m not going to pretend to be certain which side…

  172. Todd McCain says:

    Pretty good article from NR basically saying the 113,000 GOP EV lead for all intents and proposes is almost a done deal for McSally.

  173. Waingro says:

    Jim Geraghty
    ?Verified account @jimgeraghty
    2m2 minutes ago

    Really tried to avoid making any wild assumptions here… but if 112K more registered Republicans have voted than registered Dems in Arizona, Cinema needs a huge margin among Indies and/or a huge Dem surge on Election Day.

  174. Waingro says:

    #177, oh sorry. Todd beat me to it.

  175. phoenixrisen says:

    Trafalgar Florida poll crosstabs:

    2543 voters
    Partisan ID 40D/40R/20I
    56% of sample are females??! Hmmmm

    Scott leads 42-41 without learners
    Gillum leads 43-42 without leaners

    The driving factor of support for Nelson and Gillum is femaale voters indicating this result. The GOP is going to have a lead going into Election Day and turnout on Election Day will determine everything. I think Scott and DeSantis look quite good right now but it is tight

  176. hugh says:

    Skippy. you better recheck where you get your numbers. At 1 pm the gop gained a net 10K

  177. phoenixrisen says:

    Hugh, are you talking about current year EV in Glorida because Skippy was talking about 2016 Florida EV. The GOP is crushing it this year in Florida EV

  178. jaichind says:

    @ 180 phoenixrisen
    Yeah, i noticed the same thing on the Trafalgar FL polls: that the MF ratio seems off. If could be they detected much greater likelihood for women to vote relative to men this election cycle.

  179. Todd McCain says:


    Nelson 49
    Scott 48

    Gillum 49
    DeSantis 48

  180. jaichind says:

    @ 184 Todd McCain. Is that for real? Is there a link.

    1.5 weeks ago it was
    Nelson Nelson 50-45
    Gillum 54-42

  181. Hugh says:

    Again. Show the race in the last days with a small dem lead within Moe. But it will be all for naught Florida NV and AZ will be red

  182. Todd McCain says:

    Sorry, it is 49-47 in favor of Nelson. Yes, they are real. So, we have at least 4 polls today showing 49-47 races in Florida.

  183. jaichind says:

    Wow, there is major herding in the FL polls last couple of days …

  184. Todd McCain says:

    At this point, MO is with Scott and DeSantis. Considering the EV, I would bet on them if I were wagering.

  185. Mr.Vito says:

    “MO is with Scott and DeSantis.”

    Bad news for Hawley.

  186. NYCmike says:

    -Looks like Trump, and his pick for Ambassador, are doing a good job convincing companies to respect our belief that the Iran deal was a bad one.

  187. Mr.Vito says:

    GOP is more enthusiastic than 2010


    Dems are more enthusiastic than 2006

  188. Tina says:

    The Iran Deal was Great.

    -Ben Sassehole

    -mullah Corker

    -fraud Flakey.

  189. ReadyFirst says:

    93. Sheeple. Very astute and I think that’s what will happen. FL Dems are not all like other Dems. Lots of Good Ol’ Boys still around, especially in the panhandle.

    Also, no way Reps are crossing over in waves to vote Dem. Reps would just stay home. Dumbest voting theory I’ve ever heard.

  190. Tina says:

    Big Mo is with Scott and Desantis. Trumps rally was timely last night, and he is returning,

    Could be good for a few points.

  191. Waingro says:

    Sahil Kapur
    ?Verified account @sahilkapur
    55m55 minutes ago

    CNN polls

    Andrew Gillum (D) 49%
    Ron DeSantis (R) 48%

    Bill Nelson (D) 48%
    Rick Scott (R) 45%

    Marsha Blackburn (R) 49%
    Phil Bredesen (D) 45%

  192. Mr.Vito says:

    Another recent gallup poll showed the GOP with record level support for same party control.

    Makes it hard to buy Rs voting D.

    Just a lot of conflicting data.

    More reasonable to think pure independents voting D.

    Gallup party ID for the first week of October was 48-40. Average has been about 47-43 for Aug-Oct numbers that they actually posted. The Dem number has not been able to get to 49 since April. GOP number bounces up and down from 40-44.
    Waiting patiently for them to mention what it is for last week in one of their releases, and what the LV screen is.

  193. Waingro says:

    #198, sorry that tweet has wrong top lines for the FL Senate race. It’s 49-47 Nelson.

  194. hugh says:

    Actually the gallup headline is not true. It is true the democrats are thinking more about the election than republicans but on the two likely to turnout indicators one is tied and the other is in the rep favor. The BS from fake news says a lot about their desperation.

  195. Tina says:

    Mika Brzezinski: Trump Can Manipulate Media And “Peoples’ Thoughts” Using “Evil Ways”

    ***mrs Scmo and Mr. schmo are just perfect for each other.

  196. Mr.Vito says:

    From a statistical standpoint it is true, which is what gallup deals in.

  197. ReadyFirst says:

    Even Bitter, when he hated the GOP Pres. Candidate, pulled the ballot handle for him.

  198. hugh says:

    cnn polls show big mo towards Rep compared to their last fantasy polls. Have to stick with the plan. Reps losing but within the moe.

  199. ReadyFirst says:

    202. Tina. Perhaps tinfoil hats would work?

  200. hugh says:

    dems match exceed rep turnout indicators is simply a false statement how does leading in one being tied and losing in one get you to that headline.

  201. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Florida, Palm Beach County finally reported its mail-in ballots from yesterday to make the record complete through yesterday.
    To wit, the Democrats shrank this morning’s lead by about a net 1,300 votes to a net Republican lead of 62,226 ballots.

  202. Mr.Vito says:

    “dems match exceed rep turnout indicators is simply a false statement how does leading in one being tied and losing in one get you to that headline.”

    I just said.

  203. Mr.Vito says:

    If the numbers were flipped gallup would have said the same about the GOP.

  204. ReadyFirst says:

    Regarding Indies, I think the recent FL CBS/Yougov was closest to the mark with their 51R-38D. Probably a bit more D than this, but Per EV numbers, there is more conservative/R enthusiasm this election.

  205. Mr.Vito says:

    Additionally, Dems usually trail the GOP in these indicators leading to more favorabe GOP LV screens, which is why it is stated that way.

  206. Mr.Vito says:

    The LV screen during the darker days of the Kavanaugh hearing was 51-42. As, I said, I am patiently waiting for one from late October.

  207. mnw says:

    202 Tina

    TDS has led her into COD territory, apparently.

  208. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Texas, the early voting ceases after today, I think. Through yesterday, in the 30 largest urban centers in the State, about 1/3 of registered voters have voted. Amazingly, over 40% of the vote is in in three(3) ruby red Counties–Williamson, Collin and Comal.
    See for yourself and comment:

  209. mnw says:

    Geraghty’s AZ SEN article at NRO is very encouraging– esp so when RCP has Sinema “+.8% (trending upward)” today.

    The only reason Trump’s visit to WV isn’t a waste tome is WV-03. After Cow explained WV SEN, I don’t think it’s even worth discussion– any more than IL GOV is.

  210. Marv says:

    Desk top comm ck

  211. Chicon says:

    Loud and clear, Marv.

  212. NYCmike says:

    -I have to say, even though the only reason I know the names of these 2 gentlemen is because Robbie was touting them the other day…..but this is funny.

    How does a grown man walk around with his fly open at a press conference of national media?

  213. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay, so another data point.

    EV turnout in Minnesota as of today is 99% of EV turnout in 2016.

    In the most 7 most populous counties (where Dems run up numbers) the share of the vote is 60.8%.

    In 2016 on this date, it was 63.3%.

  214. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    The Nevada SOS has completed its early voting report through yesterday’s submissions.
    There is positive news to report.The Dem. vote lead increased by only a net 440 votes yesterday from the previous day; from 11,922 to 12,363.
    Once again, the “Bovine Counties” came through robustly.
    Remember, NV journalist hack,Jon Ralston, predicted that yesyterday’s vote would move SUBSTANTIALLY toward the Democrats. It did not happen!

  215. Marv says:

    Great….back on line.

    DW….the G-650 annual maintenance check is finished and available for you this weekend.

  216. NYCmike says:

    “most 7 most”

    -Mr. Vito,

    Ca$h Cow will call you about this later!

  217. Marv says:

    Former Republic of Texas Governor Rick Perry is doing a fantastic job as Secretary of the US Department of Energy.

    I am almost certain that everyone here agrees with me.

  218. Skippy says:

    Vito #220,

    Very interesting. Where did you get those numbers?

  219. Marv says:


    Yanks dethrone Red Sox next year!

  220. Mr.Vito says:

    “Very interesting. Where did you get those numbers?”

    I added them up here. Someone can double check.

  221. phoenixrisen says:

    194 — Very interesting Vito. Election night is going to be fascinating to watch. Definitely the most unique midterm election I can recall.

  222. NYCmike says:


    A man can dream!

    I lost interest when they fired Girardi, and traded for Stanton. I wanted Girardi to win with all of the kids, and stay away from the high-priced $lugger$, at least until their own got to that point.

    It was a much more relaxing baseball year not giving a hoot!

  223. NYCmike says:


    There are at least 3 other cabinet secretaries doing a better job than Perry…..Mattis, Carson, and…..what was that other one’s name…..?

  224. Marv says:


    If the Yanks had a long term plan to change out the manager, 2018 was the time to do it, although I too was a bit disappointed when Girardi was let go. I like Aaron Boone and he’ll do fine.

  225. Chicon says:

    Here’s an interesting take on the state of polling in congressional and state races. Note to Robbie – skip this one; it has actual data.

  226. ReadyFirst says:

    I’m still not convinced Election Day in FL is going to be all that great for Dems. Dems increased their absentee requested numbers this year by roughly 100k over 2016 and by almost 400k in the last 2014 midterm. The last 2014 midterm the GOP led in absentee ballots requested by around 60k and now Dems lead this year in absentee ballots requested by around 50k. A net swing (midterm to midterm) of over 100k ballots requested in favor of Dems, and yet, the GOP leads handily in absentee returns.

    My theory is the Dems are finally learning from the GOP and getting their peeps to do better in absentee ballot voting. Therefore, I think this is going to have an impact on their actual Election Day numbers compared to past years, as a chunk of these D votes have already been cast. Yeah, sort of the cannibalization theory, but with some actual numbers behind it. Any thoughts?

  227. Mr.Vito says:

    So in Nevada and Minnesota thus far, we see presidential level turnout, but with urban areas lagging.

    Will it change before election day? Guess we’ll know soon…

    Nevada Dems should be hoping for/expecting a big number for Thursday/Friday.

  228. Mr.Vito says:

    I also noted yesterday that in Miami-Dade, the GOP is supercharged with indies down.

    (in theory, a lot of Miami-Dade indies will be non-Cuban Hispanic)

  229. Chicon says:

    Vito – are you old enough to remember Lucy pulling away the football just as Charlie Brown was about to kick it? That’s what this EV info feels like to me – like it’s too good to be true, especially given the drumbeat of the blue wave we’ve heard for months. But it is real data…. Who knows?

  230. mnw says:


    I forgot Gov. Perry was in the cabinet, even. Same with Carson. I mentioned once at RRH that Trump really should have at least 1 AA in the cabinet, and… I was slapped down hard. Never mind.

    RR once forgot who his Housing Secy was, btw. “Hello, Mr. Mayor! What brings you here today?”

  231. Mr.Vito says:

    236 Yup. I can see plausible paths for this to go either way. Frankly it feels like 2016 redux, with the media saying ‘it’s over, look at the polls’ and individuals saying ‘yeah, but look at this data point’.

    In the end it was very close, and could have gone either way in a few states.

    I think this election could go either way. The data looks good for the GOP, but the polls say independents and the suburbs will carry the day.

    I think that is true, but not necessarily in one way or the other. Independents and suburbs could break Dem… but then we have the overstatement of that from 2016 and this year looks like a Prez year.

    Tough one.

  232. ReadyFirst says:

    Chicon, Lucy still does that every year on Charlie Brown Thanksgiving TV special.

  233. Robbie says:

    Someone (me) has been telling Trumpers this for almost 20 months, but no one wanted to hear it.


    Jonathan Martin

    NEW: Trump has turned the most affluent suburbs in America into a killing field for his party – and Republicans worry it could presage a realignment

    From River Oaks to Bucks County, w
    on the GOP’s Country Club collapse

  234. Marv says:


    I was a big Rick Perry supporter back in 2012 and refused to give up even when it was obvious he wasn’t going to make it.

    So, I tossed out the #224 just for old times sake.

  235. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 2:27 pm
    Here’s an interesting take on the state of polling in congressional and state races. Note to Robbie – skip this one; it has actual data.

    – Note to chicon, winter is coming for House Republicans.

  236. Chicon says:

    CG to arrive momentarily……

  237. Chicon says:

    242 – glad you think so.

  238. jackj says:

    Another thread about to be sabotaged.

  239. mnw says:

    232 Chicon

    Along those lines:

    Since the hour of the trolls has arrived, see you when they’re gone. Be sure to feed the hell out of them, & visit the one troll’s trollblog too. Because… that way the trolls can accelerate their already impressive effort to destroy HHR.

  240. phoenixrisen says:

    #240 (eyeroll) Sure. Newsflash, there are far fewer rich people than poor to middle class rural Pro-Trump people.

  241. mnw says:

    246 correction

    The link I posted above is dead.

    It’s Dan Perrin @LarrySchweikart, second item down right now– below the color photo of McSally.

  242. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 2:52 pm
    242 – glad you think so.

    – The best part of the article you linked is it prominently features Rush Limbaugh who, just last week, suggested the pipe bombers was a false flag operation and then suggested the bomber had been set up because the bumper stickers on his car were not faded.

  243. Hugh says:

    In 14 Senate races the RCP understated 11 where the rep did better in some cases way better. There were 3 where the dem did better all by small %s. BTW I expect each day the man polls will show slight movement to reps but still have them tied or losing.

    It’s odd in 12 when the Dems ran up the EV score it was proof of their enthusiasm now we discount rep EV gains and rely on polls with huge numbers of younger voters who like to stand in lines to vote on election day since so far they are not showing up.

  244. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 1, 2018 at 2:55 pm
    Since the hour of the trolls has arrived, see you when they’re gone. Be sure to feed the hell out of them, & visit the one troll’s trollblog too. Because… that way the trolls can accelerate their already impressive effort to destroy HHR.

    – I know. I hate it when a troll like you, who disappeared for years only to return as Trump supporting populist, shows up to spew your nonsense.

    On Wednesday, I imagine you’ll be sitting in a dark room, staring at your pictures of Trump and Bannon, and muttering about what happened to your populist revolution.

  245. Robbie says:

    jackj says:
    November 1, 2018 at 2:52 pm
    Another thread about to be sabotaged.

    – This forum was hijacked by low life Trump supporting fools three years ago.

  246. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:00 pm
    #240 (eyeroll) Sure. Newsflash, there are far fewer rich people than poor to middle class rural Pro-Trump people.

    – Ah, yes. We don’t need a key demo that Republicans have always needed to win. I guess we’ll just use to magic pixie dust to make up for the loss of those voters.

  247. Chicon says:

    Sez the low-life JEB! supporting fool who hijacks the thread daily.

  248. Todd McCain says:

    GOP increases its AZ overall EV ballot lead to 117,000.

  249. Robbie says:

    After Republicans are beaten on Tuesday, the party will be faced with a stark decision. Renominate Trump and lose the presidency in 2020 and see the losses in 2018 cemented just ahead of redistricting.

    Or Republicans can come to their senses and either encourage Trump not to run again or find a top flight, credible challenger to run against him in the primary (Nikki Haley or Mitt Romney for example).

  250. phoenixrisen says:

    Robbie, just pointing out the obvious flaw that you cited. There is another, being you’re using an NYT reporter validating your viewpoint. One thing you seem to be missing is that a lot of these affluent people have gotten a heck of a lot richer with the booming economy since Trump took over. I highly doubt there are going to want to throw Trump overboard given that fact.

  251. phoenixrisen says:

    #256 — ROFL!!! Okay, I’m going to remember this post when Tuesday night and Wednesday morning roll around.

  252. Hugh says:

    In AZ rep up 116k now.

  253. Skippy says:

    For the whole country….

    “In 2016 at this time, 43% of early voters were Democrats, 40% were Republicans; now, GOP voters are making up 43% of the early birds, while Dems claim 41%”

    We are still being told by the pollsters this will be D+7 election.


  254. Hugh says:

    AZ is over. In a couple days the fat lady will sing in NV. The tall good-looking guy named Hugh has already song regarding NV.

  255. phoenixrisen says:

    #260 — I am thinking D+3 or D+4. 2016 was D+5. Dems nowhere near 2016 nor 2010 levels when the GOP stayed home.

  256. Mr.Vito says:

    “We are still being told by the pollsters this will be D+7 election.”

    By party ID, though, not registration.

  257. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:14 pm
    Sez the low-life JEB! supporting fool who hijacks the thread daily.

    – Ah, poor baby.

    I supported a lifelong Republican in the Republican primary. You showed up as soon as Trump won to shamelessly shill for him. And when called on it, you laughably claimed you were a 12 year lurker.

    Of course, I shouldn’t be surprised you would do crap like this since you also believed the DNC played a role in Seth Rich’s death.

  258. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:16 pm
    Robbie, just pointing out the obvious flaw that you cited. There is another, being you’re using an NYT reporter validating your viewpoint. One thing you seem to be missing is that a lot of these affluent people have gotten a heck of a lot richer with the booming economy since Trump took over. I highly doubt there are going to want to throw Trump overboard given that fact.

    – This is precisely why the conservative movement has become so pathetic. It no longer accepts any news it doesn’t want to hear.

  259. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:18 pm
    #256 — ROFL!!! Okay, I’m going to remember this post when Tuesday night and Wednesday morning roll around.

    – So what’s your prediction for Tuesday? Are you like dblaike who believes Republicans will GAIN four seats in the House?

  260. Robbie says:

    Rough news for the future of conservatism.

    Frank Luntz

    “On Thursday The Gateway Pundit suspended our relationship with @JacobWohl.”

  261. Tina says:

    NV EV chart update 11 am 11/1 —– D’s statewide lead has been stagnating, mirroring the trend from last week (Sun to Fri), now at 12252. It should stay under 15k and 7k less than 22k number that Ds need to have a chance. Heller wins.
    View photo ·

  262. Tina says:

    In Arizona, it is not over.

    The 116k R lead means nothing,

    Remember, Is are breaking to Ds.

    20 percent of Ra “rushed” to vote for Da.

    -Nate Silverfish

  263. Tina says:

    92% of the media coverage on President Trump is negative despite the record economy and the outstanding foreign policy successes.

    Morning Consult reported:

    In the new Morning Consult/Politico poll, 64 percent of registered voters said the press has done more to divide the country than unite it since Trump took office, compared with 56 percent who said the same was true of the president. The poll of 2,543 voters was conducted Oct. 25-30, after news first broke of mail bomb suspect Cesar Sayoc’s attempted acts of politically motivated violence and amid news of a shooting by suspect Robert Bowers at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh.

  264. NYCmike says:

    Ok, mnw is right on the money about certain posters.

    His vast “experience” counts for something.

  265. hugh says:

    269 also there is army of millennials who have not taken the easy route of early voting, but clinging to tradition will stand in lines on Tuesday to vote. It must be because all the pollsters are banking on their high turnout.

  266. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:36 pm
    Ok, mnw is right on the money about certain posters.
    His vast “experience” counts for something.

    – Yep, mnw is a populist troll who disappeared for several years only to show back up as a Trump shill.

    You, on the other hand, have never taken any vacations from posting about your dead end Tea Party Senate candidates who helped keep Chuck Schumer in the majority.

  267. Cash Cow TM says:

    ““most 7 most”

    -Mr. Vito,

    Ca$h Cow will call you about this later!”

    It is perfectly correct since it was written by a sock.

    Socks can write anything…anyway they want..

  268. Robbie says:

    The postmortems here on Wednesday are going to be interesting to read.

  269. Tina says:

    Yes, the yooooot!

    They will appear at some point in Election Day.

  270. phoenixrisen says:

    #266 — GOP picks up 3-7 seats in the Senate. Dems pick up 10-30 seats in the House. The House is a coin flip right now. Very, very tight. The hard data of EV looks very, very good for the GOP. Democratic EV looks decent but not where they need to be. Indies are up in the air right now. It’s real hard to get a read. I was looking at the House races last night and most of them are just NYT/Siena polling. There just hasn’t been a lot of polling. We should get an idea how things will break in the weekend polling.

  271. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    Is the Arizona GOP’s Early Vote Lead Insurmountable?… Yes. By election day, 80% will have voted & Enema will need a 60:40 split among indies to even tie.
    View summary ·

  272. Cash Cow TM says:

    BTW, it only took SEVEN DAYS for Walt’s wife to notice he took down the old lighting fixtures in the 3 bedrooms and installed very different new ones.

    A whole friggin WEEK!
    Even more amazing to COW, is that Walt did not shock himself even once. (I told him he should turn off the breakers before he started but he is hardheaded…)

  273. Tina says:

    Phil Kerpen
    Phil Kerpen
    GOP Strategist Dan Perrin model predicts Republicans keep House, Senate
    7:36 AM – 1 Nov 2018

  274. NYCmike says:

    BUT, that poster does NOT want the Republicans to lose the House……

  275. NYCmike says:

    “Socks can write anything…anyway they want..”

    -I guess if Cow$ can write comments……

  276. mnw says:

    272 Hugh

    RE: millennials:

    And also because, the U.S. mail is REALLY tricky, hard to figure out, and …icky. Stamps. Ugh!

  277. Cash Cow TM says:

    “His vast “experience” counts for something.”
    Walt often says Cash Cow has “half-vast” experience.
    At least that is what is SOUNDS like when he SAYS it.

  278. Tina says:

    I want the Rs to lose everything.


  279. phoenixrisen says:

    #269 Silver is wishcasting. Those presumptions are silly.

  280. mnw says:

    280 Tina

    That’s what I tried to link to (unsuccessfully) in post 246 above.

  281. Tina says:

    Phoenix, silverfish did not actually make those predictions.

    It is how I interpreted his “prediction” to be.

    Enema will lose.

  282. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:41 pm
    #266 — GOP picks up 3-7 seats in the Senate. Dems pick up 10-30 seats in the House. The House is a coin flip right now

    – Well, we’ll have a chance to compare results on Wednesday.

    35-40 House seats lost
    1-2 Senate seats gained
    7-10 gubernatorial losses
    250 or losses of state legislative seats

  283. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is some New Mexico polling results. Of note, the open GOP seat in CD-2 has the Republican candidate(Herrell) with a 5 pt. lead.

  284. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:44 pm
    BUT, that poster does NOT want the Republicans to lose the House……

    – I always struggle with how to deal with you because you continually show you’re not able to understand simple distinctions.

    I am predicting losses. I am not rooting for losses. Why is that so hard for you to understand? Willful ignorance?

  285. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:46 pm
    I want the Rs to lose everything.

    – I believe Jacob Wohl.


  286. Todd McCain says:

    Hugin says his internals have him up two. Take with grain of salt.

  287. Victrc says:


    Even the dccc is not as optimistic as your projections. They currently have a pick up of 28 seats as their projection.

    Your projections would imply the R lose almost all the close races, both house and Senate.

    Hard to justify 40 seats and only +1.

    Guess we will see

  288. mnw says:

    Whatever happens Tuesday, I won’t be comparing predictions, or commenting on, troll posts. I recommend that.

    Also, I won’t post my own predictions here AT ALL, UNLESS predictions by posters are segregated from troll predictions, thus:


    jason House DEM +13

    NYCMike House GOP +37


    Vichey (whatever)

    corr-eee (whatever)

    three iii’s (whatever)


  289. Marv says:

    Hey Victrc,

    How goes it? Nice to see you posting here again.
    Do you plan to weigh-in with your House and Senate predictions?

  290. Robbie says:

    mnw is going to spend much of Wednesday sitting in a dark room looking at pictures of Trump and Bannon and muttering about what happened to his populist revolution.

  291. Robbie says:

    Victrc says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:58 pm
    Even the dccc is not as optimistic as your projections. They currently have a pick up of 28 seats as their projection.
    Your projections would imply the R lose almost all the close races, both house and Senate.
    Hard to justify 40 seats and only +1.
    Guess we will see

    – First, I never pay attention to what any party organization says so what the DCCC says means nothing to me.

    Second, the NRCC never predicted a 63 seat gain in 2010.

    Third, when waves happen unexpected losses occur.

    Fourth, the fact Republicans stand to only gain 1 or 2 (maybe 3) in the Senate with this map shows how poorly Republicans are doing this election year. A 5 seat gain should have been a minimum this year.

  292. mnw says:

    If the predictions of genuine HHR posters are just mixed in together with the trolls’, it creates the illusion that we’re all just one big group of friends, & that the opinions of trolls & those of the real posters, are all accorded equal weight.

    I won’t participate. I want no part of some illusory farce. We’re way beyond that.

    P.S. Bad writing & poor grammar makes one look “fancy” smart!

  293. Robbie says:

    Robbie says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:51 pm
    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 3:41 pm
    #266 — GOP picks up 3-7 seats in the Senate. Dems pick up 10-30 seats in the House. The House is a coin flip right now
    – Well, we’ll have a chance to compare results on Wednesday.
    35-40 House seats lost
    1-2 Senate seats gained
    7-10 gubernatorial losses
    250 or losses of state legislative seats


  294. phoenixrisen says:

    One race I would put in the toss-up category from lean Dem on RCP map would be NH-1. Edwards is within 2 of Pappas.

    One major grain of salt to point out with these House pollsters in battleground states. The only polling we are getting pretty much from what I can tell is NYT/Siena and Emerson are the pollsters. Their accuracy in past elections is as we can say suspect.

    Robbie, Victr is right. The Dems would have to win 70% or higher of the toss-up states on RCP’s map to get to your House projection. I just don’t see that happening. If Dems gain control, it will be with a majority of 5 seats or less.

  295. Tina says:

    Market up 264.

    Tomorrow, I believe we get the nov unemployment #s.

  296. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:07 pm
    If the predictions of genuine HHR posters are just mixed in together with the trolls’, it creates the illusion that we’re all just one big group of friends, & that the opinions of trolls & those of the real posters, are all accorded equal weight.

    – That’s a good point. You disappeared for several years only to return as a sniveling populist troll who shills for Trump so I don’t think your MAGA moron views should be taken seriously. Glad you called yourself out.

  297. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:09 pm
    Robbie, Victr is right. The Dems would have to win 70% or higher of the toss-up states on RCP’s map to get to your House projection. I just don’t see that happening. If Dems gain control, it will be with a majority of 5 seats or less.

    – In waves, lots of unexpected losses happen and the tossups usually all go in one direction.

  298. Todd McCain says:

    Senate GOP +4; House Dem +21

  299. phoenixrisen says:

    #298 — Senate incumbents are very tough to take out just as House incumbents are. They have to be taken out either via scandal or an anti-party wave swamps them. Regarding Senate, here is how I have it.

    ND, MO, FL, MT, WV, and IN are the GOP’s best chances. I think they pick up 5 of those 6 with Manchin/Morrissey up in the air.

    GOP holds all red senate seats up for re-election.

    Dark horse/unlikely though possible pick up opportunities are MN (Housely), MI, OH, WI and NJ.

    The GOP has done quite well this year regarding the Senate races. Just saying.

  300. Tina says:

    The caravan of invaders is 1,000 miles away from the border.

    This is the caravan that Shepardly Smith (faux news) denies.

    Same channel that told us that wmds existed in Iraq.

  301. NYCmike says:

    Senate GOP +4; House Dem +22

  302. phoenixrisen says:

    The only way the Dems having a chance of having a wave is if Indies break heavily for them. I haven’t seen any polling data indicating that is happening for them.

  303. Chicon says:

    265 – classic projection! When was the last time this dope discussed an actual data point (other than Trump’s JA, which hasn’t been in awhile)? EV? Don’t wanna talk about it. Individual polls? Nope. CGB polls by most pollsters? Hacks, since he don’t like the answer. Twitter hits but virulent anti-Trumpers? That’s the ticket.

  304. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    298. “– First, I never pay attention to what any party organization says so what the DCCC says means nothing to me.”

    Robbie, given the inaccuracy of you past predictions, would suggest relying on your own instincts is unwise.

  305. Tina says:

    au ng
    FL EV chart update — 11/1 1:07 pm — R lead at 62226, stable over the last 3 days. That’s a very good sign for Rs.
    View photo ·

  306. mnw says:

    Schweikart: “No Hispanic Calvary to Rescue Sinema”

  307. Chicon says:

    Good example is 304. There’s gonna be a wave!!!! But, based on what? Shut up, Trump lover!

  308. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:23 pm
    265 – classic projection! When was the last time this dope discussed an actual data point (other than Trump’s JA, which hasn’t been in awhile)? EV? Don’t wanna talk about it. Individual polls? Nope. CGB polls by most pollsters? Hacks, since he don’t like the answer. Twitter hits but virulent anti-Trumpers? That’s the ticket.

    – You want me to talk about data? Fine.

    – Trump’s job approval in the RCP average is around 43%. That’s an awful number for a president’s party entering a midterm election. Obama’s approval rating was 45% in the RCP average on election day 2010.

    – The generic ballot average favors Democrat by more than 7 points. That’s a terrible number for Republicans as well.

    – Individual polls? I can cite you plenty which show R House candidates who were thought to be safe who are in trouble. What about Kristi Noem who everyone here seems to think is great? In SD, she’s ahead by 3. In freaking SD!

  309. CG says:

    She’s running for Governor though.

  310. Waingro says:

    “Jonathan Martin

    NEW: Trump has turned the most affluent suburbs in America into a killing field for his party – and Republicans worry it could presage a realignment”

    And what is Mr. Martin even basing this on? Any actual data? Just concern trolling from unnamed “Republicans”? Were those “Republicans” Jennifer Rubin and Anna Navarro?

  311. SoHope says:

    Senate R+5
    House D+17

  312. CG says:

    Wouldn’t a comparison of those areas in the 2016 Presidential election as compared to previous elections count as “data?”

    We all should be able to realize that Trump did far worse in traditionally Republican upscale suburban areas than Republicans typically do, while doing better in blue-collar areas.

    Yes, a major realignment between traditional R areas and voters and traditional D areas and voters might be underway.

  313. Tina says:

    I count as a “republican.”

    Socialist on the Lido Deck

  314. CG says:

    My predictions will be added to the mix with all the others, thank you very much.

    Final predictions to come Monday night.

    My last Senate roundup had Republicans winning three.

    Currently going through the House, and through Pennsylvania, I have Democrats + 23. That will go up a bit by the time I go through the other states, but not a ton more.

    That’s looking at race by race, and I have a lot more Tossups than usual this cycle (House, Senate, and Governor) because we do not know what the turnout model is going to be or if there are fundamental problems with polls. My gut though says Democrats will win a few more seats than I officially predict.

  315. Mr.Vito says:

    The Republicans kept the house in 2016.

  316. Chicon says:

    This is a good time to post the facts again, because there’s a good chance the Dems take the House, given the history in this link (this is actual data….). What the trolls want to sell is that a typical loss of seats will be the FAULT of Trump. What’s the DATA to support this notion?

  317. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    Poll: Black Voter Approval for Trump Hit Yearly High After ‘Blexit’ via @BreitbartNews
    View summary ·

  318. Waingro says:

    #320, ok, I see the article that Martin I guess is referencing on twitter now. Just seemed like an overly broad statement to make on its own without more.

  319. CG says:

    Since 2016, a fair number of Republicans who hold districts that went to Clinton are not seeking reelection, just for starters

  320. Tina says:

    The data to support the troll hypothesis is Muh Russian.

    Everything defaults to Muh Russian,

  321. phoenixrisen says:

    #316 — The latest battleground state generic congressional shows GOP +1. The national generic factors in deep blue urbania which is the D+7. Just saying. In 2006 it was an entirely different story. Low presidential approval, Mark Foley scandal, people not happy with the Iraq War. Not so this time around. Booming economy, Trump at or near 50% approval nationally.

  322. Mr.Vito says:

    Day12 Update in NV.

    D+2.4% statewide

    Dem advantage by registration is 4.8%

    After Day12 in 2016: D+9.0%
    After Day12 in 2012: D+6.8%

  323. Waingro says:

    #322, hmm. CG far more optimistic about R’s chances than Robbie. Interesting.

  324. Tina says:

    Last minute campaign donations:

    Heller in Nv.

    Nunes in Ca.

  325. Phil says:

    You know, the REAL Republicans – Ana Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Evan McMullin (last seen dry humping Beto’s leg), Nicole Wallace, Bill Kristol, David Frum, Joe Scarborough, James Comey……

  326. CG says:

    Let’s talk about “historical averages”

    For one thing, the historical averages included cycles where districts were drawn to be far more competitive. That is not the case now. Politicians of both parties have drawn Congressional districts to all but guarantee their part holds them. Since Republicans did so well in state legislative races in the Obama years, they have drawn most of those districts (but not in places like IL or MD, and we see now what has happened in PA.)

    So, there is far less competitive territory than there would have been in the 80s, 90s, etc.

    Often in midterms, people get swept out of office who came in on the President’s coattails. That leads to increased turnover. Whatever you want to say about Trump’s unexpected victory over Clinton, he did not have down-ballot coattails. There are not very many “fluke” Republican Congressmen, etc.

    Those are two important factors why historical averages are less relevant in 2018.

    It is also true that with the economy being perceived as strong as it is under the current Republican President, his party should be expected to do better than they likely will, precisely because Trump is such a polarizing figure with weak numbers, in spite of a strong economy.

  327. Mr.Vito says:

    Most of the R open seats have already been assumed lost.

  328. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:25 pm
    298. “– First, I never pay attention to what any party organization says so what the DCCC says means nothing to me.”
    Robbie, given the inaccuracy of you past predictions, would suggest relying on your own instincts is unwise.

    – I love this revisionist history. My predictions in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014 were right on the mark. I got 2016 wrong, but so did everyone else here. I don’t remember if you were around in 2008 and 2012, but I took all kinds of crap for suggesting McCain and Romney were running crappy campaigns, but I was assured by the very same people who today claim things aren’t bad that I was wrong those years. Well?

  329. CG says:

    I’ve been more optimistic about Republican general election chances than Robbie since 2004. It’s nothing new. At times (such as 2006 when we were all younger), I was too optimistic and unable to see the writing on the wall, as some this cycle are not doing.

  330. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:34 pm
    Good example is 304. There’s gonna be a wave!!!! But, based on what? Shut up, Trump lover!

    – Based on Trump’s approval rating, the generic ballot, and the fact Republicans have already written off many suburban districts. But other than that.

  331. Robbie says:

    Tina says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:44 pm
    I count as a “republican.”
    Socialist on the Lido Deck

    – You count as an insane asylum patient.

  332. Tina says:

    Yes, James .comey, Republican.

    More like fired Fib Director

    Pro tip: if you want to reform the Fib and make it work again, please do not appoint a lawyer to Fib Director.

    No offense, but a street cop is better for that position.

    Let’s save the lawyahs for the Justice.

  333. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:51 pm
    You know, the REAL Republicans – Ana Navarro, Jennifer Rubin, Evan McMullin (last seen dry humping Beto’s leg), Nicole Wallace, Bill Kristol, David Frum, Joe Scarborough, James Comey……

    – If you think Jonathan Martin is basing his story on the view of clownish Republicans like the ones you’ve listed, then I don’t think you’re very familiar with his reporting.

  334. phoenixrisen says:

    322 — Agreed CG, this midterm is completely unpredictable.

  335. Phil says:

    Come on, Robbie. You’re just mad that I forgot to include you on the list.

  336. Tina says:

    Comedy was actually fond of commies, like comrade Brennan.

    Big lie that he was an R.

    He was an incompetent Fib Director, on par with Fuhrer Mulehead.

    The incompetent, Mute 43 is responsible for Comedy and .fuhrer.

    A 2 for 1 special.

  337. CG says:

    I feel fairly secure in predicting that Republicans will keep the Senate and Democrats will win the House.

    The margins are what is up in the air.

    Democrats could net 25 seats. They could win close to 50. My “race by race” analysis is going to look a lot closer to 25 though.

  338. Chicon says:

    Wouldn’t it be nice to know Trump’s JA in the 30+ districts that will decide the election? Or the CGB in those same districts? And when does EV data affect our beliefs on what will happen Tuesday? That is, if we’re not emotionally married to an outcome, and a white hot desire to blame it all on the Trumpster.

  339. CG says:

    I think political junkie blog types (on all sides) are far too focused on Early Voting and trying to devise outcomes from that.

    It’s certainly something to be looked at, but it is a voting trend that is continuing to evolve. We do not know what it will mean exactly and what relevance it will have in terms of who votes on Election Day.

  340. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 1, 2018 at 4:58 pm
    Come on, Robbie. You’re just mad that I forgot to include you on the list.

    – Whenever I post something Phil doesn’t like, he resorts to the stupid canard I’m not a Republican. Well, he’s sort of right. I’m not a Trump Republican and I never will be.

  341. Chicon says:

    How many seats makes a wave?

  342. Phil says:


    I’d say minus 30-35 House seats. – +1 in the senate, two if the GOP gets lucky.

  343. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 1, 2018 at 5:03 pm
    How many seats makes a wave?

    – A wave occurs at all levels. But in the House, a loss of 30 seats has always been deemed one in recent history.

    Of course, I know many will say “but muh historical average”.

  344. CG says:

    If we are looking at a “wave” a whole, then all things need to be considered, including the Governor races and the totality of state legislative races, etc.

    All of that was a factor in the GOP midterm “waves” of 2010 and 2014.

    I think there will be a “blue wave” in some areas, that is held back by a “red wall” in other areas.

    People on both sides on Wednesday will claim victory.

    Trump will still be unpopular and very vulnerable for 2020 (if he runs.) The Democrats will still have fundamental problems nationally that will hurt their 2020 prospects as well.

  345. Phil says:

    Oh, you’re a Republican, Robbie. I’m sorry for the oversight – I meant to include you with those others. You’re one of them for sure.

  346. Mr.Vito says:

    Siena is polling KY-6, NY-19, NY-22.

    Still no Nevada or Minnesota.

    The only two D seats they polled recently were MN-08 and PA-08. The first was terrible for Dems, and the second was 52-40 D with the house control preference question going to the GOP 47-46.

  347. Chicon says:

    So, a wave happens about 1/3-1/2 of the time. Ok.

  348. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Republican inches ahead in the CT Governor’s race.

  349. Mr.Vito says:

    Took a look at Montana…

    Montana EV turnout relative to 2016.

    79.4% Counties that voted for Gianforte and Trump
    77.7% Counties that split Bullock and Trump
    74.8% Counties that voted Bullock and Clinton

  350. Phil says:

    Whatever happens this election happens. At least no one can say we didn’t get our base out.

  351. Cash Cow TM says:

    Manchin and Morrisey debate on now.

  352. Frank says:


    I’ve been following the discussions over the last month or so and had nothing new to say, so I didn’t. However, the poll linked on #356 has too many undecided and the unaffiliated candidate will be lucky to get 1%. It would be nice if Stefanowski wins, but it most likely won’t happen.

    I will post my predictions next Monday.


  353. mnw says:

    Trump in Columbia, MO tonight. It’s cold; it’s wet; it’s rainy.

    Trump named Haley’s UN replacement, a State Dept official named Nauert, I think.

  354. Frank says:


    Next Tuesday, check the senate vote in Vigo County when the polls close at 6 pm. That is a bellwether county for the presidential election and it will give us a good idea what the night will be like for the republican candidates nationwide.


  355. Tina says:

    If we keep,senate (very likely) and lose House (pick em) I will be ok.

    At least, we win something, unlike 2096 when Karl Rove and mute decimated us.

  356. NYCmike says:

    2096 is when Robbie will be pimpin’g Jen na Bush’s 3rd grandchild once-removed…….

  357. mnw says:

    Gingrich has his predictions in a featured FOX article tonight. His analysis is interesting & worth a read. He sees GOP at +3 in SEN right now, & House GOP between 204-229 after midterms.

  358. JeffP says:

    Frank…you are absolutely correct on Vigo. I live in Indiana. It went strong for Trump and I doubt it has changed much. I would be shocked if it is not RED by 10% next Tuesday. Longest voting bellweather county in country I think.

  359. Chicon says:

    366 – 204-229, eh? Sounds like Robbie’s wide limb.

  360. Victrc says:

    Marv…it’s great to see you too!! I hope you’re doing well my friend!

    Responding to Robbie…as some here know I have a bit of a different insight to the DC world so my statement isn’t based on the rhetoric released, but on what they are planning. Take it as you may, but they are expecting a tight House…not. 35-40 seat swing.

    Looking forward to predictions Monday night.

  361. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    How about these polling results by our old friend Scott Rasmussen?:(H/T: RRH)

    Scott (R) 48% (+3)
    Nelson (D) 45%
    Braun (R) 43% (+3)
    Donnelly (D) 40%
    McSally (R) 49% (+7)
    Sinema (D) 42%
    Ducey (R) 54% (+17)
    Garcia (D) 37%

    @Harris_X_/@ScottWRasmussen/@auto_alliance/@NRFnews 10/29-31

  362. Scooterboy says:

    I sucked at making election predictions when I was here before. I expect that trend will continue again this year.

  363. RB says:

    Mr. Ralston thinks Clark is not showing the ‘week 2 Thursday srge’…thinks Clark gets around 25K today and makes it harder to hit that 40K firewall…

    Lets hope the firehose ‘6 rural counties’can extinguish that lead tonight…again

    …and a win in Washie would be helpful

  364. jason says:

    Mike Pence Rallies Ohio’s Amish Community to Tip Balance for Republicans”

    The good news: 9 out of 10 Amish voters are Republicans.

    The bad news: 9 out of 10 Amish don’t vote.

  365. MichiganGuy says:

    #370 Sheeple, I see you left out the not so good polls,
    Tester (D) 49%
    Rosendale (R) 42%
    McCaskill (D) 45%
    Hawley (R) 43%
    Gillum (D) 50%
    DeSantis (R) 43%
    McCaskill (D) 45%
    Hawley (R) 43%
    Gillum (D) 50%
    DeSantis (R) 43%
    Harris_X_/ScottWRasmussen/auto_alliance/NRFnews 10/29-31

  366. JeffP says:

    Ralston is worried baby….

    By the numbers:

    —-Turnout by party:

    D turnout 34.7 percent
    R turnout 37.3 percent
    O turnout 22.6 percent
    So Ds are about 3.5 points under registration, Repubs are almost 4 points above theirs and indies are about 5.5 points below theirs.

    I repeat: This is why the Democrats strive to establish a registration edge because they know GOP turnout will be higher. The question is how much higher. They don’t want the edge to grow much larger than it is right now.

  367. MichiganGuy says:

    Oops, copy the same ones. Let’s try again.
    Rosen (D) 45%
    Heller (R) 45%
    Sisolak (D) 45%
    Laxalt (R) 45%

  368. Cash Cow TM says:

    I do not see how the Rs can withstand the impact of Oprah making campaign visits to support D candidates all across the country.

    We all know how knowledgeable she is on all matters of national and international importance…


  369. Phil says:

    Sheeple, did you get those off Ras website?

  370. NYCmike says:

    -jason, is that you!?!?

    Oops, sorry, I thought I saw 4 legs for a second……

  371. phoenixrisen says:

    Translation of these new areas state polls and all the other polls:

    No one has any idea what the right turnout model is. No one has a clue how Tuesday is going to turn out.

  372. NYCmike says:

    I see jason already posted some of that info.

  373. NYCmike says:

    ” No one has a clue how Tuesday is going to turn out.”

    -Except Robbie…..

  374. Redmen4ever says:

    Newt’s forecast: coy with the Senate and gives a range for the House that include maintaining the majority.

    Post-election, the Republicans want to at least claim a draw; that they won seats in the Senate even though they lost seats and even the majority in the House. So, Newt wants to give a conservative figure for pick-ups in the Senate. If we loss the House and net only two seats in the Senate, we have a draw.

    What this reveals is, (#1), Newt thinks it’s near certain we net at least 2 Senate seats. Maybe he thinks we’ll net 4. And, (#2), he thinks it’s likely we lose the House.

  375. Phil says:

    Yes, the turnout models make all the difference and no one has a damn clue what that will be. Anyone who says they do is just shoveling Sh*t.

  376. MichiganGuy says:

    Ivanka Trump stumps for Heller in Reno; praises his tax role
    I’m surprise a liberal democrat is helping Heller. Nice to see.

  377. Cash Cow TM says:

    Watched the full hour of the Manchin/Morrisey debate.

    No shocker.
    Nobody stumbled.
    Each called the other a liar about 12 times.

    Did not move the needle.

  378. Cash Cow TM says:

    “No one has any idea what the right turnout model is. No one has a clue how Tuesday is going to turn out.”

    Well, Cow has it figured out–
    I have THE CASH COW crystal BULL–, but you all don’t want to believe what a Cow has to say, so I won’t tell you until next Wednesday.

  379. NYCmike says:

    “I’m surprise a liberal democrat is helping Heller. Nice to see.”


  380. Frank says:


    The Alliance polls have three distinct turnout models and a variety of polling periods (3 day, 5 day, 7 day).

    It makes it more interesting seeing the variety of outcomes with the different turnout models.


  381. Tina says:

    BREAKING @PVeritas_Action: BREAKING: “Nobody needs to know” Beto Campaign Appears to Illegally Spend Funds on Supplies for Caravan Aliens, Campaign Manager Says “Don’t Worry”
    6:04 PM – Nov 1, 2018

    Beta Male should be locked up.

  382. Tina says:

    Ryan Saavedra
    Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) refuses to condemn daughter’s drug firm for increasing EpiPen price by 500%, paying her a $19 million salary.
    View photo ·

  383. Redmen4ever says:

    Counter Upshot

    Florida Governor … can a crooked politician hoodwink the people of Florida

    California 50th District … can the grandson of a terrorist replace the son of a Viet Nam veteran

    Utah 4th District … can the Democrats succeed in targeting black Republicans in at least one district

    Virginia 5th District … can an anti-Semitic Democrat win in a Republican district in the Bible belt

  384. mnw says:

    370 & 374 Sheep & MG

    I don’t see any internals, & I never heard of the outfit conducting the polls, either.

    So, pending persuasion, the “good” Alliance polls & the “bad” Alliance both polls* look to me like off-the-wall krap.

    Wag the Dog: “Two things I know for sure: There is no difference between good flan & bad flan. And there is no war in Albania. Guess who I am?”

  385. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw, HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys, has partnered with veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen to produce the Daily Tracking Poll, an ongoing gauge of American voters’ political sentiment. The poll will anchor Rasmussen’s new public-opinion website,, officially debuting today.

  386. MichiganGuy says:

    Yeah, no internals so far. Maybe, Rasmussen will put it on his site tomorrow?

  387. marc says:

    I will be making my predictions on Sunday but from what I am seeing in places like Florida,Arizona, Texas, Tennessee etec the early voting turnout is though the roof for us. Republicans are getting out to vote, so if we lose it won’t be because we stayed home.

  388. MichiganGuy says:

    Sinema endorsed by Green Party Senate candidate
    Green Party candidate Angela Green is getting out of the race. Green may have been pulling support from Sinema in the toss-up race.
    Hopefully, this is too late to do any good for Sinema.

  389. mnw says:


    You know, though many don’t, that there is a profound difference between Rasmussen Reports on the one hand, & on the other.

    The former is the one I post every morning. The latter is the one RRH uses. RAS Reports has Trumps JA about even…49/50. has Trump JA at -9, last time I looked, & predicted a massive blue wave that would be far beyond the dreams of trolls Vichey & corr-eee.

  390. Bitterlaw says:

    Does Jason need me to say another HHR classic? Signs don’t vote.

    I wish the Trump hatred was not so intense I. The civilized parts of Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, there are neighborhoods in Philadelphia with more voters than some PA counties. I hope the rural areas come out on Tuesday. Casey and Wolf will each win easily. I wish I was wrong. I just don’t see Dems sleepwalking like they did in 2016.

  391. Robbie says:

    Poor, sad Rudy can’t even get the guy’s name right.

    Rudy Giuliani

    Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He’s the future of our party. Let’s make that future now.. Vote for Don James

  392. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 1, 2018 at 10:17 pm

    You know, though many don’t, that there is a profound difference between Rasmussen Reports on the one hand, & on the other.

    The former is the one I post every morning. The latter is the one RRH uses. RAS Reports has Trumps JA about even…49/50. has Trump JA at -9, last time I looked, & predicted a massive blue wave that would be far beyond the dreams of trolls Vichey & corr-eee.

    – I love the fact people still treat Rasmussen as a good poll and I really love the fact I’m in the head of our populist Trump troll.

    Does Newton Leroy Gingrich have any great advice for Republicans?

  393. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 1, 2018 at 9:10 pm
    ” No one has a clue how Tuesday is going to turn out.”

    -Except Robbie…..

    – The losing side always says stuff like this. At least you’re not saying something really stupid like the only poll that matters is the one that’s taken on election day.

  394. Tina says:

    .@BetoORourke won’t be able to flee from this wreck.…
    View details ·

    Poor Beta.

  395. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 1, 2018 at 7:27 pm
    2096 is when Robbie will be pimpin’g Jen na Bush’s 3rd grandchild once-removed…….

    – I thought that was the year you hoped Richard Mourdock and COD’s love child ran for office.

  396. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 1, 2018 at 7:28 pm
    Gingrich has his predictions in a featured FOX article tonight. His analysis is interesting & worth a read. He sees GOP at +3 in SEN right now, & House GOP between 204-229 after midterms.

    – LOL! Newt! LOL! Deep breath. When I want insight I always look to a carnival barker who left his first wife on her deathbed with cancer.

  397. Tina says:



    HARRIS-29.42% (-3.01%)
    DALLAS-32.14% (-0.31%)
    BEXAR-30.75% (-1.68%)
    TRAVIS-38.22% (+5.79%)
    EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)
    HIDALGO-25.59% (-6.84%)
    CAMERON-21.53% (-10.9%)
    From the link:


    TARRANT-33.55% (+1.12%)
    COLLIN-40.52% (+8.09%)
    DENTON-37.42% (+4.99%)
    MONTGOMERY-34.36% (+1.93%)
    WILLIAMSON-40.53% (+8.1%)

  398. mnw says:


    Thanks. That’s impressive. Hope it helps the TX GOP House guys.

    Would be interesting to see Phil’s thoughts. Wonder if he’s a bit more optimistic now?

  399. Tina says:

    Follow by SMS
    George Papadopoulos George Papadopoulos
    I was patient zero of “Russia gate”, now this patient is telling you all that “spygate” is more real than ever, and has always been the real narrative. Apologies for not being able to scream it out loud months before. Vote red.
    View details ·

    May you win your lawsuits and hope you collect major coin against the Obumbler spy gate regime.

  400. HHR says:

    As in 2008, 2012 and 2016, some posters have fallen back on the Republicans will win because Republicans will win logic. Rdel was a master at this game.

  401. Tina says:

    As in 2016, will Lord Arsehat provide polling?

  402. Mr.Vito says:

    Yeah, hi, MD.

  403. Bitterlaw says:

    PA is interesting for having both a flaming liberal (despite pretending to be moderate) Senator Casey and a solid conservative Senator Toomey. Maybe Alabama has a wider ideological gap. I defer to Wes on which other states are so different in their Senators (because I don’t feel like looking it up).

  404. Florida Guy says:

    Auto Dealers and Retail Foundation have returned! Their polling in 2016 was spot on:

    Scott (R) 48% (+3)
    Nelson (D) 45%
    Braun (R) 43% (+3)
    Donnelly (D) 40%
    McSally (R) 49% (+7)
    Sinema (D) 42%
    Ducey (R) 54% (+17)
    Garcia (D) 37%


    Rosen (D) 45%
    Heller (R) 45%

    McCaskill (D) 45% (+2)
    Hawley (R) 43%
    Gillum (D) 50% (+7)
    DeSantis (R) 43%

    Tester (D) 49% (+7)
    Rosendale (R) 42%

  405. Tina says:

    Well, athein1 has a post on Florida updates for the evening.

  406. Bitterlaw says:

    If the Dems take the House with big gains, Robbie and Corey will be worse than Red Sox fans after the curse was broken. Insufferable.

  407. Mr.Vito says:

    Robbie will. Corey won’t.

  408. mnw says:

    415 Sunshine State guru

    Those polls were posted & discussed.

    I’m concerned that there aren’t any internals, & the pollster isn’t exactly a famous name, even tho some of those results are good for GOP.

  409. Tina says:

    So, will low iq, downtown .dirty waters become speaker?

    And Russian Stooge, Schiff for Brains, become committee chair?

  410. Tina says:

    The Jebots do love Schiff for Brains.

    The Jebots prolly prefer Piglosi, over Maxine.

  411. Marv says:


    What did athein1 say about FL?

  412. Tina says:

    Looks like we are now plus 69000 in Ev, Marv..

    There are some counties not factored in.

    I could not copy and paste her tweet though.

    My laptop failed and my iPad needs to be replaced.

  413. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe, Mr. Vito. In the event of a blue wave, these posts are likely:

    Robbie – GFY, Trump-suckers. It’s over. The Republican Party. The country. Brannon and Trump jizzed all over you and you want more in 2020. Gotta go. Time for the Angelus.

    Corey – I warned you soulless degenerates but you did not listen. If you had just accepted pragmatic compromiser Hillary in 2016 we would have veto proof majorities in both chambers tonight. I am not judging you but I am judging you.

  414. MichiganGuy says:

    au ng
    ? @athein1

    FL EV update — Based on the following spreadsheet, tomorrow’s FL number should show that R lead holding up. That means we might after all be avoiding or mitigating the drop off of that lead seen in the last few days of ’16 EV.

  415. Mr.Vito says:

    Politico/Morning Consult


    Done more to unite? or divide country?

    Trump: 30-56 (Indep: 54, Dem: 88, GOP: 25)
    National Media: 17-64 (Indep: 67, Dem: 46, GOP: 80)

    H/T Kurtz

  416. Tina says:

    Bl, accurate, especially the Clinton Groupie.

    Good job.

  417. Phil says:

    Looking at the early voting numbers in Texas on the EarlyVote.Smart website through yesterday just under 4.5 million have voted. Roughly 63 percent are 50 and older. Very bad news for Beto. Democrats haven’t won any state wide office since 1994. They won’t win one this year either. The website models early voters based on analytics and their model show Republicans outpacing Democrats by around 700,000. It’s an estimate since we don’t register by party in this state, but it looks like a reasonable estimate given the age and race numbers. Still not too late to write a check to Beto, however. Give until it hurts.

  418. Tina says:

    If you give it to Beto, beta male will then turn it around and give it to the caravan of invaders.

    Whoops,me already did.

  419. RB says:

    Beta…..shhhh….don’t away the next big baddie on The Walking Dead

  420. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    387. “Watched the full hour of the Manchin/Morrisey debate. No shocker. Nobody stumbled. Each called the other a liar about 12 times.”

    Given the times, sounds like it was very civil.

  421. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    It is entirely possible that the election will not result in a clear victory for either party, and be sort of a draw — so both parties will proclaim victory.

  422. Bitterlaw says:

    I am too lazy to look it up. Do the states with early voting show actual totals for the candidates or where the votes were cast and people guess totals based on party ID.

  423. MichiganGuy says:

    #428 Phil,I wonder where they get their #’s? According to Texas SOS they show just 3,973,968 people have voted so far. Of course it hasn’t been updated since 10/31 but, I would think as soon as a county reports it’s #’s they would update it.

  424. Phil says:

    Simply a guess based on party registration etc. No actual candidate totals, bitter.

  425. MichiganGuy says:

    its not it’s

  426. Florida Guy says:


    Scott Rasmussen is NOT a famous name?

    Auto Dealers did a series of polls in 2016.

    They called it right on Trump in three swing states; Rubio; and Toomey.

  427. Phil says:

    434 I believe that SOS total is just the total of the top 30 counties in population, Michigan. Just the ones on that chart. Doesn’t include the rest of the state (most of the rural counties) which are overwhelmingly Republican. That would be another 600,000 votes I believe.

  428. phoenixrisen says:

    Completely agree SD.

  429. MichiganGuy says:

    The North Dakota Democratic Party recently created a “Hunter Alerts” Facebook page that features posts warning residents who like to hunt that they should not cast a ballot.

    “ATTENTION HUNTERS: If you vote in North Dakota, you may forfeit hunting licenses you have in other states. If you want to keep your out-of-state hunting licenses, you may not want to vote in North Dakota,” the ad states.

    Donald Trump Jr.

    Only the party that wants to take your guns could do something so untruthful to suppress the North Dakota vote.

    This is false #ND don’t let these liar democrats get away with it. Figured I would call it out since the media is too busy fluffing the Dems to do their job. #NDSEN

  430. ReadyFirst says:

    Feels like when hurricanes come and this is the calm before the storm. Two more days and this EV stuff is over here, phew!

  431. Mr.Vito says:

    GOP just netted about 1300 votes from Douglas, Elko, and Nye.

  432. michael corleone says:

    Vito does that include absentees?

  433. Mr.Vito says:

    I think so.

  434. Mr.Vito says:

    Apparently, whoever was running the Washoe site went on vacation and was replaced by this guy…

  435. MichiganGuy says:

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports
    1m1 minute ago

    Amazing margins for GOP in three larger rural counties reporting today, pushing their ballot lead up by 1,000 in the rurals.

  436. MichiganGuy says:

    #445 Vito. LOL

  437. John says:

    The final jobs report before the midterms will be released tomorrow morning at 5:30 am est…

  438. Mr.Vito says:

    Good turnout.

    D+4203 in Clark

    part of Thurs/Fri surge.

  439. MichiganGuy says:

    Not good for the GOP!

  440. Mr.Vito says:

    Almost 10000 came out for the GOP or it could have been far worse.

  441. MichiganGuy says:

    It looks like the dems will have $40000+ firewall in Clark after tomorrow.

  442. MichiganGuy says:

    Are the dems busing them in from California

  443. phoenixrisen says:

    So Charlie Cook believes it is a sure deal that the Dems win the House. Guess he didn’t learn from 2016. Also, Nancy Pelosi saying that on Colbert and Maxine getting all giddy on Drudge. I’ve got a feeling that is going to juice up Election Day GOP voters even more. If the GOP retains the House, the shock on the faces of the Democrats could be even more hlorious than what 2016 was.

  444. Phil says:

    So, 40000 D Lead out of Vegas and Nevada is gone? Is that pretty much it?

  445. Mr.Vito says:

    “So, 40000 D Lead out of Vegas and Nevada is gone? Is that pretty much it?”


  446. michael corleone says:

    If my math is correct, Reps won Washoe by a few hundred votes.

  447. MichiganGuy says:

    Phil, it all depends if Republicans show up on election day.

  448. Mr.Vito says:

    I think Ds gained 12 votes… a wash.

  449. Phil says:

    Vito, clue me in. Where did I get the idea that 40k D lead in Vegas meant Heller wouldn’t win? Was that something Ralston was putting out?

  450. Mr.Vito says:

    Lead from Clark was about 25000 more at this point in 2012.

  451. Mr.Vito says:

    He said he wanted to see 40000 to feel good going into election day, but that it didn’t mean a win.

  452. MichiganGuy says:

    Phil, Ralston said, dems needed 35-40k just to have a chance.

  453. Phil says:

    Ok, thanks. What was the Vegas lead in 2016?

  454. michael corleone says:

    Sorry Vito, my bad. I mixed up the cumulative 2 week spread with the week 2 spread.

  455. Mr.Vito says:

    With some red counties missing, the lead sits right now at 2.8% and about 15000 votes.

    In 2016, it was 5.4% and about 37000 votes.
    In 2012, it was 6.8% and almost 40000 votes.

  456. Mr.Vito says:

    Even in Clark, the GOP is overperforming the Dems relative to those years.

  457. lisab says:

    my **feeling** is

    that the election day voting will be more like typical mid-term voting.

    that is, those who are enthused have already voted. those who are left are the people like me who vote in mid-term elections.

    i do think there will be an increase in voting on election day, but for the most part the people who normally do not vote in mid-terms will have already voted.

    this is just a theory, not based on any poll. i just don’t think as many people care as early voting indicates. i think the early voters are the enthusiastic base,

    and election day will be the typical mid-term voters. probably older people and union members who vote as a matter of course.

    i think that means blue states will be blue on election day and red states will be red.

  458. RB says:

    Dems got what they wanted from Clark…but GOP was able to counter with Douglas…Nye…Elko…again the GOP looses the EV in Washue but wins the day(barely) with the AV

    The Election Day vote in Washue seems to be key….Clark is going to continue to produce as well as rurals

  459. RB says:

    GOP may get another 1000 after EV and AV are counted in CC, Lyon, and Churchill….but….tomorrow gird them loins

    GOP will need a big Election Day vote to win

  460. lisab says:

    i think that we just don’t know how people are voting

    now i grant you that few republicans are voting straight dem … but people like corey and robbie most certainly are. there will be dems crossing over too.

    unfortunately trump is a very polarizing figure

  461. lisab says:

    one thing i think people should note is how much people like corey an robbie hold trump voters in low regard

    and you should vote accordingly

    if people like them take over the gop, as they have already taken over the dems,

    regular people will lose. that is fine if you are rich, or live in a gated community, but it will harm democracy. i personally don’t want holier than thou people in charge.

  462. ReadyFirst says:

    lisab. In FL, to be a member of the party decision making body, you have to take a loyalty oath to support the GOP candidate when running in a General Election. I doubt Robbie or CG could take that pledge, so they or their ilk won’t be in charge in FL. Even if they really are Reps which is dubious.

  463. lisab says:

    I doubt Robbie or CG could take that pledge, so they or their ilk won’t be in charge in FL

    the thing is

    anyone can be a republican or democrat

    both major parties allow anyone to join no matter what your views. so corey/robbie can say they are republicans … they are just the type of republicans that would support open borders and lenin as the party leader

  464. Tina says:

    au ng
    Replying to @UlyssesHoffman3 @ChristopherOrp1 @RalstonReports
    They take as gospel words from @RalstonReports that Clark D lead of 40k’ll be a surefire win for D. I disagree because I believe that as long as statewide lead is held under 22k, Heller wins. That number is currently 12.2k and might get to 13.5 – 14k tomorrow and end up 16k max
    View conversation ·

  465. Skippy says:

    Horrible Florida Early Voting Numbers came in for the Democrats this morning.

    Democrats only gained 3,696 from yesterday.

    Republicans still up +58,530 overall in Early Voting.

    In 2016 the Democrats gained 10,000 votes on Republicans from Thursday to Friday.

    November 4th, (Friday) 2016
    Republicans +1,833

    November 2nd, (Friday) 2018
    Republicans +58,530

    Terrible Thursday results for the Democrats.

  466. jaichind says:

    @ 476 Tina. I guess what Ralston is saying is that Clark turnout is very elastic so Dem lead there is indicative of overall turnout while rural turnout is inelastic so a strong EV for GOP is just cannibalizing election day turnout. I know nothing of NV but Ralston should really come up with historical data to back that up.

  467. Tina says:

    Jaichind, he has lowered this number and continues to root for the Drats.

    I also disagree with Ralston Reid.

  468. Tina says:

    BREAKING: Group of migrants travelling on foot from Honduras file federal lawsuit against Pres Trump and others. “Trump’s professed and enacted policy towards thousands of caravanners seeking asylum in the United States is shockingly unconstitutional.”
    7:48 PM – 1 Nov 2018

    Ok, who gets this first? 9th Circus Court or Hawaii Judge?

    I am sure one of these 2 will find standing.

  469. jaichind says:

    Trump Asks Cabinet to Draft Possible Trade Deal With China

    Might end up being a false dawn. But a news like this after months of pressure plays into the narrative that Trump is getting American to win again. In fact I suspect Trump timed it like this to get that impression right before election day.

  470. jaichind says:

    Gravis came out with a CT gov poll with Lamont +9. It seems that that poll with Lamont behind by 2 is an outlier all things considered.

  471. hugh says:

    early on Joe said if they got to 40 it would be close and that was before the huge gop rural vote. I’m feeling very good about nv, great about az and now fl for Scott.

  472. CG says:

    Quick post-

    The election is coming up in days and lisab is claiming I am voting “straight dem.”

    As I have said before, I intend to vote straight Republican this year, not that I have a competitive federal election to vote in. Since turning 18, I have voted for each and every Republican nominee who has ever been on my ballot, except Donald Trump.

    lisab, who is at least several years older than me, has only been able to point to a couple of Republicans she has ever voted for and even though she now lives in Minnesota, which has several important elections this year, seems unwilling to commit to voting for any Republican, even against Keith Ellison.

    So, that might be something for people to work on in these closing hours.

  473. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #478- jai
    Jon Ralston may be claiming the elasticity/ inelasticity argument, but he gives no proof. He has become a shill for the Democrats.
    Factor this is:
    1) In 2016, Libertarian Gary Johnson received over 33,000 votes in the Presidential race. Rosen(D) will be fortunate to receive 10% of that vote.
    2) Heller(R) will have more crossover votes due to his being an incumbent and fostering a good relationship with Las Vegas poobahs over the years. Some prominent Democrats support him.
    3) Heller should win Independent votes by 20% or more.Nevada Indies are survivalist types.

  474. hugh says:

    486. great comment on Johnson

  475. Todd McCain says:

    There is another STTP weekend this week in Florida though so DEMS will definitely make gains. GOP should hold the overall EV lead though.

  476. Skippy says:

    October Job Report Number:


    Holy bleep!

  477. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    October Jobs’ Report
    (a) New Jobs’ Created- 250,000
    (b) Revisions to Prior Months- Wash
    (c) Unemployment Rate- Static at 3.7%
    (d) Wage Growth- 3.1% year over year
    (e) U-6 Rate- 7.4%
    (f) Labor Participation Rate- up two ticks to 63.9%

    Great Report.

  478. DW says:

    Overall a good night for GOP in Siena polling:

    NY_22 – R+6, 190 responses
    NY_19 – R+3, 178 responses
    KY_06 – R+12, 128 responses
    MI_08 – D+4, 169 responses
    IA_04 – R+5, 54 responses
    WA_08 – tied, 324 responses
    IL_14 – D+4, 80 responses
    VA_07 – R+2, 379 responses
    CA_48 – D+5, 302 responses
    TX_32 – D+2, 316 responses
    IA_01 – D+7, 452 responses
    CA_45 – D+2, 499 responses
    GA_06 – D+2, 267 responses

  479. jaichind says:

    U.S. Wages Gains Crack 3% YOU for First Time Since 2009

  480. DW says:

    NY_27 – Dixie Strategies

    McMurray (D) 38%
    Collins (R) 45%

    Seems like this poll, along with the current Siena polls of NY_19 and NY_22 and last weeks NY_24 show that NY is breaking late to the GOP.

  481. jaichind says:

    Even Bloomberg News which has an anti-Trump bias this election cycle admits that U.S. Jobs Report May Aid GOP on Eve of Midterms

  482. DW says:

    494 – James Carville no doubt agrees.

  483. DW says:

    And its why we won’t see a rush of Independents to vote D.

    What independent is going to look at the jobs numbers, the wages, the swelling 401k’s and say, “I love the growth of my wealth, and only wish I could keep it going, but I have to vote to stop it because I think Trump is a jerk.”

  484. DW says:

    CA_49 – SUSA

    Levin (D) 51%
    Harkey (R) 44%

    Much closer than Siena and LA Times found (D+14)

  485. DW says:


    CA_48 – Thomas Partners Strategies

    Rouda (D) 42%
    Rohrabacher (R) 51%

  486. Todd McCain says:

    498. This is pretty interesting; if you would have asked me who of the OC, CA GOPers was the most vulnerable, I would have said Rohrabacher, yet he seems to be in the best shape to retain his seat. Mimi Waters has a problem.

  487. mnw says:

    I doubt anybody remembers, but I posted here, & at RRH, that I thought Trump should use the Chinese “birth tourism” industry to illustrate the birthright citizenship disaster, in the same way that he has often used MS 13 to illustrate the border security disaster.

    Last night in Columbia, MO, Trump did indeed make special mention of the Chinese “birth tourism” industry. I always thought that if the voters ever learned about this growing phenomenon, they’d throw up.

  488. DW says:

    Woah…RCP moves OR_05 from Likely D to Lean D. This is the one where the R released an absurd internal poll favoring him–a poll done by Gravis showing R+23. Everyone laughed at it, but that was weeks ago and the Dem never replied with his own internal.

    RCP might know something causing them to drop the rating to Lean D.

  489. DW says:

    RCP also moved KY_06 from Tossup to Lean R. This is the very sort of seat the GOP needs to hold to maintain house control.

  490. SoHope says:

    Trump lets it leak that they may be drafting a deal to end the China trade War right before election day… That along with these numbers should pump up the stock market today Monday and Tuesday… Very shrewd

  491. DW says:

    Here is the sort of brilliant commentary you can get from RRH:

    “Looking towards 2020, there are a few races where the republicans are probably going to lose, but I want to see what the margin is. Some of them are MI-SEN, OH-SEN, PA-SEN, WI-SEN, MN-SEN (Smith). If all of them are in single digits in these conditions, then I’ll feel hopeful for 2020.”

    There is no PA, OH or WI senate race in 2020.

  492. dblaikie says:

    Things are shaping up nicely in Nevada. Yes Clark had a big day, but so did the rural counties. The Dem. advantage after tomorrow will be under 20000 advantage for the dems. But if the vote on election day continues like this why should the GOP be hopeful. Two reasons, the first is that by election day the Culinary Workers will have about shot their best shot. Much of that Clark County “wall” is a Culinary Workers Wall. It is very possible that by the end of the vote next Tuesday the Clark County advantage will go down a point or two because of that. That is huge. The second reason are that Independents, at least in Nevada, are conservative. Like I said in an earlier post they mistrust the GOP, hate the Dems who advocate big Gov., and love to vote for none of the above. Heller will win the Independent vote. For those two reasons, albeit with a close vote, Heller and Laxalt will ride the rural wave into the Capital and the State House.

  493. Mr.Vito says:

    Poorly worded… they mean senate races this year as a measuring tool for 2020.

  494. mnw says:

    504 SoHope

    I’ve always thought that the Chinese govt might decide that it would get a better trade deal BEFORE the midterms.

    China: “Our tariffs will hurt your farmers in key states, and thus hurt your party in the election.”

    Trump: “Possibly…but I’ll still be President after the midterms. Think about it.”

  495. SoHope says:

    2020 Senate races look good. It is +1R to +1D
    Doug Jones is a senate pickup in the bank and only CO and NC are possible tossups.

  496. mnw says:

    RAS today:

    51/47 Trump JA

    That’s NOT a typo. The numbers are NOT switched.

  497. Bitterlaw says:

    Uh oh. Chinese billionaires are having babies in America and then…flying back to live in China. Will they stop at nothing to get their children admitted to Stanford?

  498. mnw says:

    They’re not billionaires. And we’ll see if the voters find this as amusing as you & your troll clients do, BL.

  499. mnw says:

    Btw, those are called “anchor babies” for a REASON.

  500. Bitterlaw says:

    510 Nice story, Mr. Vito. Unless he was a diabetic. If he was a diabetic, she should have just let him jump.

  501. mnw says:

    WSJ: “Wages Rise At Fastest Pace In 9 Years, As 250000 Jobs Created”

  502. Bitterlaw says:

    I have troll clients? Interesting. As for birth tourism, amend the Constitution.

    By the way, mnw, what did you do to earn citizenship? I did nothing. The only poster at HHR who earned American citizenship is jason.

  503. mnw says:

    You yourself once described three iii’s (“Messy”) as your “client,” as I recall.

    As stated, we’ll see if the voters accept your “Let them eat cake!” position on immigration.

  504. ReadyFirst says:

    481., 504. Jai, Sohope, mnw. I assume you saw my 449 post. I found Trumps actions to be very shrewd also. I have watched too many elections for Reps where the Fed talks about or enacts rate hikes right before an election. Then, the Fed finds itself providing Excuses as to why they won’t rate hike before an Obama election, etc. Real hard to prove manipulation, but I’ve always felt that’s been going on. Seems Trump found his own way to manipulate the market right before an election.

  505. John says:

    Breaking News…250,000 jobs added…3.1% wages grew…3.7% unemployment rate.
    This should help the R’s.

  506. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw – I do not recall that at all. I have defended the right of every poster to post here. Maybe your old brain interpreted that as an endorsement of their posts. It was not.

  507. Bitterlaw says:

    Only at HHR would supporting the clear text of the 14th Amendment be considered a “let them eat cake” position.

  508. Mr.Vito says:

    IF it were clear, we wouldn’t have several court decisions trying to clear it up.

  509. ReadyFirst says:

    Bitter, I don’t know if this is true or not but may be worth talking to your Doc about it. I’m a tequila drinker and have seen this promoted a lot.

  510. John says:

    There was some upward movement with R’s and the House control according to John Stossell’odds in the last few hours.
    The jobs report perhaps?

  511. michael corleone says:

    #522 – clear text. Sorry, but “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” is not exactly clear. I’m not sure what the correct answer is, but originalist arguments on both sides should be considered before reaching a conclusion.

  512. mnw says:

    I believe you don’t recall it. But you posted it. Do you like straw men, BL? Point out, then, where I have ever claimed that you’d “endorsed [the trolls’] posts,” please?

  513. Mr.Vito says:

    WEll, we have a much clearer path for invasion from a hostile power. Just march your army up to the border and claim asylum. If we don’t let them in, sue.

  514. ReadyFirst says:

    Aaaaaand…..the market takes off.

  515. mnw says:

    I’ve never seen better economic news, all across the board, than today’s stories: 3.1% wage growth; 250000 jobs added (disproportionately in so-called “burly guy” type jobs); plus the lowest UE rate in 49 years.

  516. ReadyFirst says:

    528. Vito, I know right! Next thing you know, only lawyers will be allowed in the armed services.

  517. Mr.Vito says:

    jason earned his citizenship by loving America, respecting its laws and values, and seeking to protect it as a special place of hope and freedom in the world.

    I’ve earned mine, too. Respectfully GFY Bitter.

  518. mnw says:


    Galvin (D) 49
    Young (R-inc) 48

    Alaska Survey Research (poll).

  519. mnw says:


    I expected the market might take off MORE.

  520. Mr.Vito says:

    533 Maybe. I’ll believe it when I see it in actual votes.

  521. ReadyFirst says:

    520, 525. John, nice updates.

  522. Mr.Vito says:

    FOXNEWS online lead story … “Prominent Democrats who have spent the past two years openly sparring with President Trump are poised to assume control of key committees if their party reclaims control of the House in the Nov. 6 midterm elections.”

    Their picture includes Elizabeth Warren.


  523. mnw says:

    Alaska Survey Research does not show its work. No internal. They also show the GOV race tied, with Walker at 7%.


    I didn’t suggest that you believe it. I’m inclined not to myself, but … “unskewing polls again!” if I suggest it doesn’t seem right. I don’t think I’ve seen any other polls showing the GOV race dead even, after Walker quit.

  524. ReadyFirst says:

    Should be a good day mnw. AVGO and Apple seem to be having a bad day though.

  525. Scooterboy says:

    Feinstein only up 9 in latest Senate Poll.

  526. Marv says:

    NV Statewide through 1 Nov: D+16,042
    Clark Co through 1 Nov: D+37,557

  527. mnw says:

    MN AG

    SUSA reports Ellison (D) +4 on Wardlow (R). Among “already voted,” Ellison is +27, per SUSA.

  528. phoenixrisen says:

    OOF! This job report is FANTASTIC. No doubt Trump will be crowing about this through the weekend. CNBC and MSNBC are going to be grudgingly acknowledging this report like they are sucking a lemon. This couldn’t be worse for Dems as this is the type of thing that solidifies an undecided voter who to vote for going into Tuesday

  529. Marv says:

    Are the totals in #541 good or bad?


  530. Mr.Vito says:

    The lead is actually 15197 Marv.

    Good compared to 2012, 2016…

  531. Bitterlaw says:

    532 Zzzzzzz and GFY. Everything you posted could be true of any person who becomes a naturalized citizen. If you became a citizen at birth, then you did not earn it. It was given to you. Deal with it, sock.

  532. Bitterlaw says:

    Marv! Good to see you posting. You must be excited that one of the 27 baseball teams you support won the World Series.

  533. NYCmike says:

    Bitter has guilt about being born in the United States…….jeez Louise!

  534. phoenixrisen says:

    I’d say they are a wash now Marv. Dems made up some serious ground this week

  535. NYCmike says:

    “I am too lazy to look it up. Do the states with early voting show actual totals for the candidates or where the votes were cast and people guess totals based on party ID.”

    -Already asked this question.

  536. ReadyFirst says:

    I’m not as worried now about the panhandle voting.

    From Steve Schale: “Bay County, wrecked by Hurricane MIchael. I was just there Sunday, and the devastation is hard to describe.
    That being said, today the county hit the 20K mark in person early votes, passing their entire 2014 total. Really impressive.”

  537. Marv says:

    #545 Mr.Vito,

    Thanks. I failed to include “Mailing Precincts”
    (my screen size was too small)

    NV Statewide through 1 Nov: D+15,197

  538. Mr.Vito says:

    “Everything you posted could be true of any person who becomes a naturalized citizen.”

    Exactly my point. If that is how they earn their citizenship, then people born here can ‘earn’ theirs, too, and be proud of it.

  539. Marv says:

    Hey Bitterlaw,

    How goes it?

    The friggin’ Red Sox are NOT one of my favorite teams!!!

  540. Robbie says:

    Chris Cillizza is rarely correct, but he’s on the mark here.

    Chris Cillizza

    Given the strength of the economy, if Republicans lose badly on Tuesday it’s hard to see it as anything but a total referendum on Trump’s conduct in office

  541. Robbie says:

    Rob George

    GOP should be apoplectic over political malpractice of final week. Trump could be pushing true story of strong economy. Instead, he’s hammering FAKE NEWS narrative of an America being invaded by migrants hundreds of miles from the border. Republicans will end up paying the price.

  542. hugh says:

    552. not all of nv is in the totals yet for yesterday. NV will be red. Heller is the incumbent and a lot more popular than trump was in 2016. Also NV is booming the last two years

  543. Marv says:


    I expect that President Trump will highlight the economic numbers during his weekend MAGA rallies.

  544. Todd McCain says:

    Still think Braun is going to win too.

  545. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #541- Marv
    The Nevada data is very good for the GOP compared with the early NV vote in 2016.
    After early voting in 2016 the Democrats had a Clark County lead of approximately 74,000 votes whereas it is now 37,500 with today being the last day for such voting.
    After early voting in 2016, the Democrats had a Statewide lead of about 48,000 ballots whereas it is now below 15,000 with today being the last day.

    I think that #539 is too pessimistic.

  546. Robbie says:

    The strong economy should have been the only thing Trump talked about for the last month. Republicans wouldn’t be in danger of losing the House.

    The Associated Press

    BREAKING: US employers added a robust 250,000 jobs in October and lifted wages at fastest pace since 2009.

  547. Cash Cow TM says:

    Good MOO-rning….!

    I am on station and ready to answer any and all questions.

  548. Mr.Vito says:


    How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for Congress this year?

    Extremely/Very important
    Healthcare 80
    The economy 78
    Immigration 78

  549. Robbie says:

    Marv says:
    November 2, 2018 at 10:41 am
    I expect that President Trump will highlight the economic numbers during his weekend MAGA rallies.

    – It will be little more than background noise at this point. His main message has been the caravan and litigating his fight against the media. He’s solely playing to the FoxNews viewership.

    Trump’s always made the mistake of assuming his rally crowds are a good reflection of the broader electorate. They’re not. When the rest of the country sees what he says at his rallies, they shake their heads.

    A message the economy and nothing but the economy would have been powerful. He chose to do something else.

  550. jaichind says:

    @ 541 Robbie.
    I do not thinking talking about the economy will work. People vote on economic issues when the economy is bad. It is clearly good so you have to find another topic to get your votes out.

  551. Robbie says:

    jaichind says:
    November 2, 2018 at 10:49 am
    @ 541 Robbie.
    I do not thinking talking about the economy will work. People vote on economic issues when the economy is bad. It is clearly good so you have to find another topic to get your votes out.

    – Ask Reagan in 1984 and Clinton in 1996 if talking about the good economies worked for their campaigns.

  552. Cash Cow TM says:

    I will toss out this idea…

    Cow thinks that the mood of the voters in SPECIFIC key states with key U.S. Senate races, house races, governors races, etc. IS CRUCIAL…as it relate to THESE 4 KEY THINGS:

    –illegal immigration
    –the support or opposition to Kavanaugh
    –whether they feel the economy in their state/district is improving as compared to 2 years ago
    –the approval/disapproval rating for Trump

  553. NYCmike says:

    Robbie will now send Gallup to the “IGNORE” file…..

  554. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – I do not feel guilty about being born a US citizen. I am extremely lucky that I was born here. However, I did nothing to earn this gift.

  555. mnw says:

    Beto’s campaign tells reporter from DCNF (Daily Caller News Foundation) that:

    “Beto does not have statement about the caravan at this time.”

  556. NYCmike says:

    Neither did the baby whose parent flew in on a plane, or snuck in illegally, to give birth.

    Which is why the status (citizen, naturalized, in the process of naturalization) of the parents should be taken into consideration in regard to a question of citizenship.

  557. NYCmike says:

    ““Beto does not have statement about the caravan at this time.””

    -He only watches CNN, and they haven’t show it yet.

  558. NYCmike says:

    BUT, Robbie really WANTS the Republicans to maintain control of the House of Representatives….

  559. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Robbie- I have to agree with jai on this one. I can counter your claim by pointing to the 2000 and 2016 elections when the perception of the economy was good and the titular incumbents lost.

  560. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, a good economy doesn’t always get rewarded; election 2000 was a clear example. Now, I have agreed with Robbie that Trump’s behavior on many issues has turned off suburban women especially.

  561. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Wes and So Hope:
    The early voting numbers in No. Carolina look good for the GOP in CD-13(Budd), decent in CD-9(Harris) and OK in CD-2(Holding).
    What say you?

  562. Phil says:


    … does Schmidt, Frum, Wallace, Navarro, McMullin, Crystal and all the rest of the REAL Republicans.

  563. Mr.Vito says:

    Last three in Gallup:

    U.S. trade and tariff policies 61%
    Climate change 53%
    Investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 U.S. election 45%

  564. hugh says:

    Anecdotally, I would categorize my circle of friends’ wives as suburban and I do not know any that did vote for trump and now do not support him. He was a complete a as clown in the primary and election and there is nothing new here. So best I can tell this army of suburban women is a democrat hope, but not much evidence to support it.

  565. NYCmike says:

    “Now, I have agreed with Robbie that Trump’s behavior on many issues has turned off suburban women especially.”

    -Finding out one of the moms has a fake Prada diaper bag has turned off suburban women.

  566. Mr.Vito says:

    People who hated Trump in 2016 still voted downballot.

    I think the assumption is that the Dem leaners are energized and the GOP leaners are not.

  567. hugh says:

    581. no doubt that is the underlying assumption by all the pollsters. It is not mine.

  568. Albert Hodges says:

    President Trump is going to highlight the great economic news from now until Tuesday.

    President Trump is going to highlight the invasion being attempted by the various caravans marching/riding through Mexico from now until Tuesday.

    Both of these things can be true.

  569. Mr.Vito says:

    I actually know a suburban woman who was not going to vote at all in 2016 because of the choices at the top. She literally decided to vote while passing the voting station an hour before closing… voted downballot but not for President. I will try to find out if she is voting.

  570. mnw says:

    “Trump Goes to Panhandle Today”

    Proof that he’s NOT a billionaire after all.

  571. Phil says:

    Nate Silver this morning has D+38 in the House and R+0 in the Senate.

    His numbers – Florida – Nelson 51.5 – 48.5
    Tennessee – Blackburn 51.8 – 45.3
    Texas – Cruz 51.7 – 46.8
    ND – Cramer 52.6 – 47.4
    Missouri – McCaskill 49.5 – 47.8
    Arizona – Sinema 49.6 – 48.7
    Indiana – Donnelly 50.3 – 47.1
    Nevada – Heller 48.8 – 48.6

  572. mnw says:


    Within 48 hours after his nomination, his pals in the media had the whole country wondering whether or not Romney could avoid federal prison.

  573. jason says:

    “Trump Goes to Panhandle Today”

    Proof that he’s NOT a billionaire after all.”


  574. Phil says:

    Romney was a fool before and an even bigger one today.

  575. mnw says:


    I’d like to bet Nate a little money concerning his MO SEN prediction.

    People in MO who think McCaskill is still going to win are thin on the ground.

  576. Phil says:

    Good to hear, mnw. What part of Mo. do you live in? I know she is counting on the KC and St. Louis suburbs to save her. What say you?

  577. jason says:

    Does Jason need me to say another HHR classic? Signs don’t vote.

    Hey Bitter, GFY.

    I didn’t say signs voted.

  578. jason says:

    Given the strength of the economy, if Republicans lose badly on Tuesday it’s hard to see it as anything but a total referendum on Trump’s conduct in office”


    Yeah, let’s ignore history so we can embrace far left MSM talking points.

  579. Waingro says:

    “Nate Silver this morning has D+38 in the House and R+0 in the Senate.”

    Watch him hedge at the last second like he always does.

    Maybe this will finally be the election to show how much a fraud this guy really is.

  580. Waingro says:

    #587, I still like Mitt, but his approach to the media and despicable trash like Dingy Harry lying about his taxes is to act like Kevin Bacon taking the paddle in Animal House.

  581. mnw says:


    I vote in the Ozarks (south of Springfield) from a vacation condo I’ve owned for decades. My principal residence is in the IL suburbs of STL, though, so I’m in the STL area for Bluz games, & lots of other stuff, all the time.

    As for MO SEN, I guess I’m relying on the steady stream of recent polls, almost all showing Hawley with a lead. The trend toward Hawley in the last month has been pretty obvious– if you compare ALL the polls from 4-6 weeks ago with ALL the recent polls.

    Trump’s rallies in Missouri are a plus imo, in a state he won by 18 points.

  582. NYCmike says:

    I still like Mitt as well……and he is still incredibly naive and/or willfully stupid when it comes to how the media acts.

    BOTH can be true.

  583. jason says:

    Latest Predictit numbers:

    GOP control House 37%
    Ted Cruz 79%
    DeSantis 41%
    McSally 61%
    Heller 48%
    Huguin 24%
    Georgia Governor GOP 62%
    Cramer 87%
    Walker 44%
    Scott 41% (money to be made here, I think he wins)
    McCaskill 40%
    Manchin 77%
    DeWine 44% (might be undervalued)

  584. RB says:

    Remaining Rurals should chip 600-900 off dem kead when they come in…but gird em tonight…Last day EV in Clark is always massive Dems may net 5K there today

  585. jason says:

    Which is why the status (citizen, naturalized, in the process of naturalization) of the parents should be taken into consideration in regard to a question of citizenship.”

    “Should” is fine. There are a lot of laws I think “should” be different.

    But right now, that is not what the law says.

    If you want to change it fine, but if a child is born in the US, the child is American.

    Whether you think it should be or not.

  586. RB says:

    Interesting obsevations living in NJ-7

    While i see a lot of Malinowski signs they are never buddied with Menedez signs…i am sure most will pull the lever but not proudly

    Hugin ran a great campaign in the wring year…Menedez by 6-8 is my guess

  587. Mr.Vito says:

    “Dems may net 5K there today”

    Plus absentees.

  588. mnw says:

    Schweikart agrees with Geraghty that McSally is in a commanding position for AZ SEN, based on EV:

    “Say Goodnight, Enema”

  589. Justin says:

    Is Mitt doing anything to help get out the sizable Mormon vote in Nevada for Heller?

  590. Redmen4ever says:

    Democrats hope now that we have a competent President, the Russians won’t steal this election like they did the last time.

  591. jason says:

    ‘jason earned his citizenship by loving America, respecting its laws and values, and seeking to protect it as a special place of hope and freedom in the world.

    Thanks Bitter.

    But it’s never enough, is it? NYC said I should go back to where I came from.

  592. jason says:

    Not everyone agrees with Amoral Scumbag (and his MSM buddies) that Trump shouldn’t be talking about the caravan.

    “From their open border policies to their calls to abolish ICE, the caravan is yet another reminder to voters that Democrats have put the sovereignty of our country in jeopardy with their extreme immigration views. Meanwhile, Republicans are protecting America by working to legally control our borders and keep dangerous criminals from entering our country,” RNC spokesman Steve Guest told The Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement.

    Mark Krikorian, the executive director for the Center for Immigration Studies, told TheDCNF the caravan “is a godsend for Republican candidates,” saying regardless of people’s views of President Donald Trump, it can be made clear where he stands on the issue of defending America and taking care of U.S. citizens. Krikorian also mentioned he did not believe big-name Democrats, like billionaire donor George Soros, were behind the funding or organizing of the caravan because even they know it would hurt their party.

    “The caravan is a godsend for Republican candidates. You know the idea that Soros or Chuck Schumer dreamed this up is nuts. Why would they do that? I mean they’re not idiots. Because even middle of the road people even people who aren’t particularly hawkish on immigration don’t think it’s right that thousands of people should be swarming across our borders,” Krikorian said.

  593. Mr.Vito says:

    Actually, I said that.

  594. Mr.Vito says:

    610 is for 608

    “‘jason earned his citizenship by loving America, respecting its laws and values, and seeking to protect it as a special place of hope and freedom in the world.”

  595. Mr.Vito says:

    Mr. Bitter says you earned it by taking a test, but people born here can never earn it.

  596. jason says:

    Thanks Mr. Vito.

  597. RB says:

    Mr. Vito-GOP has done great in the Rurals and frankly have held down the losses in Clark keeping it around a 10% deficit.

    Washue has been killing the GOP…needed better from there…i dont know if NV will be decided on election day

  598. jason says:

    I know you didn’t say I should go back to where I came from. That was NYC.

  599. jason says:

    I think the GOP wins all the races that tied or within 2%.

  600. Mr.Vito says:

    You are welcome.

  601. NYCmike says:

    I did say it….of course, the context was different, but jason’s dream job was to be a NY Times editor…….

  602. Mr.Vito says:

    jason is that based on late breakers, bad polling models, or more of a hunch?

  603. NYCmike says:

    “But right now, that is not what the law says.”

    -Shouldn’t this be “But right now, that is not how the law is interpreted.”?

  604. NYCmike says:

    “jason is that based on late breakers, bad polling models, or more of a hunch?”

    -jason is going to see the word “hunch” and tell us what he is cooking.

  605. NYCmike says:

    -If this is true, this is embarrassing. The same paper which won’t release that Obama tape.

  606. hugh says:

    nv lead now down to 14.6 with Lyon still to report. will end up around 14.2

  607. RB says:

    In 2016(especially at the State level) pollsters missed the massive surge in Rural America.

    I wonder if the pollsters have accounted for that or felt that it was a phenomenon when only Trump is on the ticket

    NV is showing us Rural America is coming out again so if this isnt acounted for place in Indiana and Missouri may have polling issues but in places like NJ and the Philly Burbs the polling may be spot on.

    Would love to know if the IN and MO polls used a model of continued rural big turnout

  608. SoHope says:

    John James is the real deal. I wish she was in a slightly more purplish state. Him being a senator would make him a shoe-in for VP or top of the ticket within a few years.

  609. Redmen4ever says:

    Don’t worry about the caravan. They already voted by mail.

  610. RB says:

    Churchill and Carson City came in and the GOP netted + 390 which is a pretty big haul considering the size of those counties…Lyon still to come in but intially thought the rurals would get 6-9 hundred…looks like it will be toward the 900 side

  611. jason says:

    Communist Pope tells Michael Moore capitalism is a sin.

    Bitter will ignore it and still go to Mass.

    “And I said, “Do you believe that an economic system that benefits the few, the wealthy at the expense of the many is a sin?” And he said to me, “Si” in Italian. And I said, “So you believe capitalism, the kinda — the capitalism we have now is a sin?” He goes, “Yes, it is.” He said, “The poor must always come first.”

  612. jason says:

    Corey will say I am not a Catholic so I can’t criticize the Pope, and that I am telling Bitter not to go to Mass.

  613. hugh says:

    Old Joe Ralston currently saying two statewide elections are a toss up

  614. jason says:

    Of course, Capitalism has taken more people out of poverty than any other system in the History of mankind.

  615. ReadyFirst says:

    Don’t think this was mentioned sooooooo…….
    Rick Scott up 5

  616. jason says:

    “You should go back to where you came from”…

    Has a “different context”.

    Who knew.

  617. jason says:

    Shouldn’t this be “But right now, that is not how the law is interpreted.”?

    No. The Constitution is quite clear.

    But thanks for asking.

  618. ReadyFirst says:

    Can’t speak for anyone else here, but she doesn’t do it for me. Anyone?

  619. jason says:

    jason is that based on late breakers, bad polling models, or more of a hunch?”

    It’s based on my belief (or hunch if you prefer) that more Dems than Rs that are polled are not going to vote, are not eligible to vote, or are more likely to follow the prevailing winds when answering a polling question.

    I don’t think its a huge difference but its enough for 2 points or so.

    For this reason I think tied races will tend to go GOP.

  620. jason says:

    Is Kaboom bigger than boom?

    Is there a MAGA BOOM and MEGABOOM too?

  621. jason says:

    “According to the most recent estimates, in 2015, 10 percent of the world’s population lived on less than US$1.90 a day, compared to 11 percent in 2013. That’s down from nearly 36 percent in 1990.
    Nearly 1.1 billion fewer people are living in extreme poverty than in 1990. In 2015, 736 million people lived on less than $1.90 a day, down from 1.85 billion in 1990.”

    The end of communism was in the late 1980’s…and China became more capitalistic at the same time.

  622. ReadyFirst says:

    I gots my own style. I finally got one that wasn’t an internal, don’t take that from me Jason!

  623. ReadyFirst says:

    585. mnw, that was funny.

  624. ReadyFirst says:

    MAGA Boom was funny too.

  625. Hugh says:

    637. I agree with Jason. It’s the reason for my optimism and the ev is an indication that it’s more than a hunch. Also I don’t want to get my first gfy from Jason.

  626. mnw says:

    633 RF

    RE: FL SEN Vox Populi poll

    Vox Populi has certainly been no friend to GOP in general. They say Sinema is way ahead & McSally has cratered. Go to their home page & look at “latest Senate polls,” if interested.

    The VP AZ poll, to which you linked, actually has a pretty DEM-friendly sample, fwiw.

    No other public poll has shown Scott ahead that much, that I can recall. Scott’s internal had him about that, as I recall. I think Scott’s internal had him up around 5-points.

  627. ReadyFirst says:

    “Early voting will end Saturday in many areas. But Bay, Broward, Calhoun, Charlotte, Duval, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Escambia Hillsborough, Leon, Orange, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Suwanee and Volusia are among counties that will continue to hold early voting on Sunday.

    Due to an executive order from Gov. Rick Scott in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson counties have added Monday to early voting. Election Day polling places will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.”

  628. NYCmike says:

    -The more I read about Islam……and the more I read about Canada…..

  629. Todd McCain says:

    ND, MO, IN, FL and MT!!! Let’s go!

  630. ReadyFirst says:

    Exactly mnw, high D skewing is partly why it got a Kaboom from me. High Skew, and Scott is still up 5, very cool! Desantis same survey is down 3, but with a D+6 sample. In other words, very close Gov. race.

  631. lisab says:

    The friggin’ Red Sox are NOT one of my favorite teams!!!

    red sox are awesome

  632. ReadyFirst says:

    Jason, is that MAGA Boom copyrighted? I kinda want to use that in case I get another poll catch. You good with that?

  633. Todd McCain says:

    GOP maintained their 116,000 EV ballot lead in Arizona after yesterday.

  634. mnw says:

    Vox Populi polling seems to produce erratic toplines, which are inconsistent with other pollsters. However, they produce odd-looking results which sometimes favor GOP & sometimes DEMs. So…just ODD.

    I think I recall that Vox Populi got a middling grade from whoever rates pollsters… 538? So they aren’t considered trash.

  635. lisab says:

    The end of communism was in the late 1980’s…and China became more capitalistic at the same time.

    actually the ussr had a fairly high standard of living in the 1980’s

    the big gains have been in africa

  636. As a deep red Republican Texan, here’s my say:

    Gov – Abbott wins in landslide – +18 over Valdez;
    Senate – Cruz wins safely with a +8 over Beto-Baby
    US Cong. #32: Sessions wins in a squeaker +2
    US Cong. # 7: Culberson wins by the skin @ +1
    US Cong. # 23: Hurd safely beats Ortiz-Jones @ +5

    Beto will have spend $80 million by the end –for NADA!

    Texas – always Red! only the skies are Blue!


  638. lisab says:

    Migrants traveling to US sue Trump, government; claim violation of constitutional rights

  639. Big Joe says:

    Just early voted here in GA. Long lines everywhere and a lot of excitement.

    I’ve been impressed with the Abrams campaign’s outreach. For the first time in my life, I’ve had folks knocking on my door asking if I’ve voted yet, telling me where to vote, and what to do if I get turned out. Very impressed with these young volunteers.

    I think Abrams has a tough hill to climb here. GA has been trending blue but still pretty red. Plus the 50%+1 rule makes it all the much tougher …

    It does feel good to vote in a competitive election though, so there’s that.

    Big Joe

  640. lisab says:

    Alec Baldwin Arrested After Fight Over Manhattan Parking Spot

  641. NYCmike says:

    “Trump has earned my gratitude by all he’s done for America, for all of us. I am a cheerleader. I love that he’s a real person. I’ll take crude and real and good anytime.

    Trump can’t let an insult go by when it would be smarter to keep his mouth shut. Men with a lot of testosterone can be like that. It’s part of why he does his job like a man, too, a man who cares about getting the hard jobs done. A man who cares about protecting all Americans. I love the guy.

    He has my back, and I know it.”

    -And Robbie.

  642. NYCmike says:

    “I think Abrams has a tough hill to climb here. GA has been trending blue but still pretty red. Plus the 50%+1 rule makes it all the much tougher … ”

    -I hope you are correct, Big Joe.

  643. lisab says:

    Gwyneth Paltrow got married

    all i want to do is to tell the guy …


  644. Big Joe says:

    “-I hope you are correct, Big Joe.”

    And I hope I’m incorrect, NYCmike 😀

    Hoping won’t affect the results. We will see what happens on Tuesday. I can definitely see a result like Abrams 49 Kemp 48 Libertarian 3.

    That won’t get it done for Stacy Abrams.

    Big Joe

  645. marc says:

    The Democrats instituted the runoff in Georgia to keep the accesseding Republicans out of power that’s why Georgia on a state level didn’t swing to the GOP during the 80’s and 90’s.

    The same runoff just might keep Democrats out of office statewide for at least another decade..

  646. Scooby77 says:

    Huge turnout today in Clark County. 🙁

  647. Mr.Vito says:

    668 Expected.

  648. Wes says:

    Marc, Republicans won the only statewide runoff in GA in the ‘90s when Paul Coverdell ousted Wyche Fowler from the Senate in 1992.

  649. CG says:

    Saxby Chambliss won a 2008 runoff to be reelected to the Senate.

    When did the general election runoff come into law in Georgia exactly?

    Lots of states in the south implemented them, when Republicans were still an afterthought.

  650. Wes says:

    Dems won the gubernatorial races in 1994 and 1998 by 51-49 and 52-43 respectively but held the Class 2 Senate seat in 1996 by 49-48 because that year the runoff was not in effect—probably because of the 1992 results.

  651. hugh says:

    I wonder how many people are at the Obama speech. Nelson looks like a 75 year old male pole dancer with too much botox

  652. Wes says:

    GA has had two Senate runoffs—in 1992 and 2008. In 1966, the Republican won a plurality in the gubernatorial race but lost when the Dem Legislature picked his opponent as per the law at the time.

  653. Redmen4ever says:

    Senate R2 55, Ds 45; House Ds 218, Rs 217

  654. Wes says:

    As far as I know, GA and LA are the only Southern states currently employing general election runoffs though several others have them for primaries.

  655. CG says:

    GA and LA are the only states at all currently, although Louisiana doesn’t have regular primaries.

    MS will probably be having a U.S. Senate runoff this year in December. On Tuesday’s ballot, party labels will not be included for that seat.

    Vermont still has a law where the state legislature picks the winner for Governor if nobody receives a majority, but some candidates have refused to contest the results that way.

  656. Proud Obamacon says:

    Big Joe the Faux Democrat shows up poo pooing how Stacy is going to lose. Man, shut up. We taking this. Oprah, Obama all rallying for Stacy. Stacy gonna bring this thing home!

    As for Georgia runoffs, it was put in by CONSERVATIVES as a way to maintain their hold on power. Nothing in the Constitution about runoffs, yall. WE SHALL OVERCOME!!


  657. Mr.Vito says:

    60% voting to send message to Trump. Levels of both support and opposition highest measured.

    Only 2% of GOP/GOPleaners are voting to oppose Trump. 53% to support.

    4% of Democrats are voting to support Trump and 62% to oppose.

    If you look at the “net” it is +51R and -58D.
    In 2014 the “net” was +30D and -54R
    In 2010 the “net” was +41D and -56R
    In 2006 the “net” was +35R and -55D

  658. Mr.Vito says:

    More Clark absentees have been dumped today, but the GOP still got the lead to below 15000 votes total in NV.

    The GOP has a shot of keeping the lead to about 20000.

  659. RB says:

    Mr. Vito-Lyon has yet to report and will shave a few hundred off that lead as well

  660. Mr.Vito says:

    680 Every bit helps. Tiny Esmeralda shaved 40 off last week’s total while everyone had moved on.

  661. hugh says:

    with 1,461,695 votes cast in AZ the rep ballots lead by 116,000 with an 7.9% lead. This will probably be about 70% of the total vote after Election Day. in 2016 the reps finished early voting with 6.3% lead. in 2016 the early vote lead was about 100k and trump won az by about 100K. I would say McSally wins with a bigger margin than trump did.

  662. NYCmike says:

    ” I would say McSally wins with a bigger margin than trump did.”

    -You sound like “CG” and Robbie now!


  663. RB says:

    Mr. Ralston got a little tounge and cheek about Elko after day 1 when it underperformed….since then Elko has netted + 3500 votes

  664. hugh says:

    Whoa Mr. Vito, I think you are bit over your skis. that seems way to high. I think 18K is more reasonable. We will know in 24 hours.

  665. Mr.Vito says:

    Even better.

  666. RB says:

    I think closer to 18K

    Clark will probably net 5-6 K…but historically every county votes big on week 2 Friday except Lyon…Elko, CC, Churchill, Nye and Douglass will cut into that Clark big day…Washue has been a wash…so between 18-19K seems right

    We’ll see

  667. Florida Guy says:

    Proud Obamaton,

    Abrams will lose. Sadly, socialist grifter Andy Gillum will likely win, unless DeSantis can pull off a victory like Young’s in Indiana or Scott’s in 2010.


  668. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    606. “Is Mitt doing anything to help get out the sizable Mormon vote in Nevada for Heller?”

    Heller is Mormon, so am sure that vote is already motivated. Romney has been in Arizona campaigning for McSally. Arizona has a large Mormon population.

  669. mnw says:

    RE: Alec Baldwin

    I love 60-yr-old guys who go to fist city over a parking spot!

    Wes & I both admire former Rep. Etheridge (D-NC), who did something similar with an obnoxious “student journalist” a few years back.

  670. ReadyFirst says:

    Lots of Gravis here, OH, MT, NV, VT et al. Come and get it. No time to Fisk it. Didn’t look like much on a quick glance. Have fun.

  671. ReadyFirst says:

    I so wanted to do a MAGA Boom too 🙁

  672. NYCmike says:

    “I love 60-yr-old guys who go to fist city over a parking spot!”

    -I’ll need more details before passing judgment.

    Sometimes, you have to do what you have to do!

  673. jason says:

    51 Ready

    Good with that

  674. NYCmike says:

    I think his name is really “ason”.

    He lost an “s” somewhere.

  675. RB says:

    Lyon drop in a + 400 for the GO

    Essentially the Rurals cut about 2K into that big 4K day in Clark

    Tonight and tomorrow more of the same

  676. Hugh says:

    ok. I don’t want to be Polaris but lets start with the NV poll. First its almost a week old. Second it has the hispanic vote at 19% and right now its about 9%. It has 54% of those surveyed being over age 50, but as of now the over age 50 vote is about 73%. MT not that doesn’t pass the smell test or any test. It had 54% of those surveyed being over age 50, but right now over 70% are over age 50. Wow these guys would do better just make it all up. They did right about Milleniels they love their phones, but they will never vote as expected until their employers pay them to vote. Based on these two polls I have decided that we win both nv and mt.

  677. mnw says:

    701 Hugh

    Those are valid points. I don’t understand why Gravis chose such unrepresentative samples, if they were really trying to predict these elections (NV & MT) accurately. That “young/old” thing is remarkable! I’d love to hear them explain why the age of the average voter is about to DROP by 19% in NV, & 16% in MT.

    Call it “Gravis’ Fountain of Yute,” I guess.

  678. RB says:

    With 1 day to go(and it is a big one)

    Dem lead in NV 14,502

  679. DW says:

    Harris Interactive with a dump of polls

    MT Senate

    Tester 49
    Rosendale 42

    MO Senate

    McCaskill 46
    Hawley 44

    IN Senate

    Braun 42
    Donnelly 40

    NV Senate

    Rosen 46
    Heller 43

    FL Senate

    Scott 48
    Nelson 46

    AZ Senate

    McSally 49
    Sinema 42

  680. Big Joe says:

    “Big Joe the Faux Democrat shows up poo pooing how Stacy is going to lose. Man, shut up.”

    Come on, Proud. I take more abuse from you than anyone here. Not cool. It’s going to be tough for Stacy, she needs 50%+1 on Tuesday. It’s possible but unlikely.

    That said, her campaign has been impressive. GA is just a tough state for a candidate like Stacy Abrams.

    Big Joe

  681. CG says:

    Kemp is a weak candidate the way he positioned himself in the primaries. Casey Cagle would be up by 10 points.

  682. Hugh says:

    Well they got three of 6 of them right.

  683. Big Joe says:

    True, CG. Casey Cagle was endorsed by outgoing popular Gov. Deal. He would be cruising to victory right now.

    Big Joe

  684. jaichind says:

    Wow. These polls are all over the place. I guess what we can conclude is IN FL MO NV AZ are all tossups. ND most likely out of reach for Dems and MT most likely out of reach for GOP. So Senate could be D+1 to R+4 and most likely somewhere in between. I am hoping it is at least R+2.

  685. Mr.Vito says:

    Aaron Booth is a consultant for Gravis?

  686. CG says:

    Would Stacy Evans be up big over Kemp now as a more moderate opponent or is the enthusiasm on the left for Abrams something that wouldn’t have been matched?

  687. jaichind says:

    And as expected all these Harris polls gets adjusted by 538 by 1.8 toward the Dems

  688. Proud Obamacon says:

    OK Big Joe, be a downer that’s fine. Here are the facts: Youth vote is way up! Early vote through the roof! Energy like never before. Abrams running flawless campaign (you say so yourself) Kemp on his knees to suck off the Orange, not gonna work. People of Georgia are waking up. Georgia ain’t Alabama anymore, oh wait we actually won in Alabama already. We win in Alabama, we win anywhere.


  689. Hugh says:

    Are Nate and Polaris related?? Having said that I really liked his input. I hope he comes a back before the election.

  690. CG says:

    “We win in Alabama, we win anywhere.”

    Against a sexual predator of children, probably. Otherwise, maybe not.

    Some people here will still back the predator though because the media sucks or something.

  691. jason says:

    Abrams is a flaming liberal tool

  692. Hugh says:

    Getting carry out with cnn on ready the streaming line and they show the wage growth then said wages only went 5 cents last month. Really you can’t make this stuff up. I now think I know what the c cnn really stands for.

  693. Albert Hodges says:

    Final Prediction

    After election:

    55 GOP Senators
    220 GOP Congressman

    Not going to guess the governors

  694. Phil says:

    Hugh, the only people watching CNN these days are people stuck in airports.

    It’s a network with one anti Trump anti Republican panel after another led by moderators who are nothing but Democratic Party operatives. Heck, even the lefties get bored with their format.

  695. jaichind says:

    I posted this before. RCP Direction of country Right track vs Wrong track for Nov 2nd

    2018 39.6 54.4
    2016 29.6 63.1
    2014 27.9 66.0
    2012 40.0 54.7
    2010 31.4 63.6

    2018 looks a lot like 2012 and not like 2010 nor 2014.

  696. Big Joe says:

    Stacy Evans vs Brian Kemp would have been interesting. I am of the firm belief, that people will vote for their team regardless of who the candidate is. President Trump is proof of this.

    Stacy Evans would have been a Michelle Nunn / Jason Carter re-run. In theory, she could pull some moderate Republicans but I no longer subscribe to that theory after 2016.

    Enthusiasm and energy trumps all until further notice. Just my opinion.

    Big Joe

  697. jaichind says:

    University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in October of election year.

    2018 98.6
    2016 87.2
    2014 86.9
    2012 82.6
    2010 67.7
    2008 57.6
    2006 93.6
    2004 91.7
    2002 80.6
    2000 105.8
    1998 97.4

    Fairly high numbers in 2000 and 2016 did not stop the 8 year incumbent from being defeated. 2006 high numbers did not stop a GOP rout.

    Still 2018 will be the year with the highest index of all midterm years since 1998

  698. mnw says:

    …stuck in airports OR McDonalds.

  699. Big Joe says:

    “Youth vote is way up! Early vote through the roof! Energy like never before. Abrams running flawless campaign (you say so yourself) Kemp on his knees to suck off the Orange, not gonna work”

    Proud O, All may be true, but may also still not be enough in GA. Remember, this is GA. I live here. Confederate flags everywhere, disinterested Democrats, run-off rule, thunderstorms coming on Tuesday.

    Can Abrams get to 50% on Tuesday? Of course. She’d have to have everything go right. Her strategy is to turn out the rural AA vote and run up the score in the big cities. At the same time, A LOT of GOP voters would need to stay home. It would be something new in GA but could happen. I’d give it her about a 25% chance.

    Big Joe

  700. jaichind says:

    Bloomberg US Weekly Consumer Comfort Index. Last Oct reading in election years.

    2018 60.3
    2016 44.6
    2014 37.2
    2012 32.6
    2010 27.0
    2008 25.0
    2006 48.0
    2004 47.0
    2002 39.0
    2000 63.0
    1998 61.0
    1996 46.0
    1994 40.0
    1992 26.0
    1990 28.0
    1988 46.0
    1986 46.0

    2018 is pretty close the top peaks of 1998 and 2000.

  701. RB says:

    Mr. Vito-I thought Booth was an actor who had an affection to Paladan polling…

    Speaking of Paladan polling DW, the press is waiting for the final numbers 😉

  702. hugh says:

    old voters are killing it. Big Joe you’re a good guy. You are better off ignoring Proud O

  703. hugh says:

    Old Joe is sounding a tad nervous about NV again. He will never go negative because he needs the click bait

  704. Big Joe says:

    “Big Joe you’re a good guy. You are better off ignoring Proud O”

    Thanks hugh, you do know I’m a Democrat right?

    Big Joe

  705. Proud Obamacon says:

    Wrong Big Joe! GOP Women are crossing over and support Stacy over Pussy Grabber Junior! I feel good about Georgia but I get what you’re saying. It’s a tough fight with so many racists and moron living there, but we gonna do this. TURN.GEORGIA.BLUE!

  706. Hugh says:

    Yes I do. Proud O is one of the far left progressive socialists killing your party.

  707. Big Joe says:

    Thanks for understanding that not all Democrats are like the caricatured far left loons that you see on Fox News.

    Proud O,
    Democrats have an outstanding opportunity to show that we are the adults in the room, that we are the party that can truly work for ALL people, that we are civil, that we are leaders and visionaries. President Trump’s act is getting old. His base loves him but that’s what 30%? A moderating Democratic voice can appeal to the folks in the middle but your support will be needed to respect and allow that voice to speak and be heard. Will you allow a center-left voice in the Democratic party to be heard?

    Big Joe

  708. mnw says:

    Jou & Hugh

    You DO realize that you’re trying to engage with a troll loon, right?

  709. mnw says:

    733 sb “Joe and”

  710. John says:

    According to Henry Olsen Mo and Indiana is going to the R’s….

  711. lisab says:

    Italian vegan threatened to knife her mother to death for cooking bolognese sauce with meat in for hours on end

    ‘Quit making ragu, or I’ll stab you in the stomach,’ according to the mother’s civil complaint.

  712. Tina says:

    Today, Chairman @ChuckGrassley referred Judy Munro-Leighton to @TheJusticeDept for investigation for making materially false statements to the Committee during the course of its investigation.…
    2:36 PM – 2 Nov 2018

    Grassley makes his third criminal referral in the Edsel Ford hoax.

  713. Proud Obamacon says:

    “old voters are killing it.”

    So what? They are just banking their votes early, dawg.


  714. News You Can Use says:


  715. lisab says:

    more than half of American adults plan to cast ballots in November, but only a third of people ages 18 to 29 say they will.

  716. mnw says:

    Good to see Pence up on the dais with Trump in Naptown (Indianapolis) tonight.

    Of these 4 states with party registration, NV; AZ; FL & IA, Iowa is the only one of the 4 in which the DEMs are outperforming the GOP on EV, compared to 2016. See story at FOX, “GOP hopeful about early voting”

  717. lisab says:


  718. Phil says:

    Guess she’s not as thrifty as Michelle.

  719. Victrc says:

    Say what you want about Trump but I’ve never seen early voting like this.

    I just returned in time for the last day of voting and went to my polling station where I’ve never had more than a 5 min wait even on election day…two and a half hour line. Went to another one and the same. Finally found a station with only an hour wait and voted (as I’ll be overseas Tuesday).

    Whether you’re for or against, Trump has driven people to mid term election like no one else before. It feels even stronger than a presidential year.

    What it means for Tuesday we shall see.

  720. hugh says:

    I like Big Joe. I do not agree with him, but he is always polite which I like. And he does not repeat the same crapp over and over.

  721. RB says:

    Mr. Ralston still seem his blog it appears that he thinks Rosen has the high ground but the Rural numbers are mixing him up…i think the dems will have a big day tomorrow to push his prediction to the Dems, but this may be the first time he comes in without the bravado…he knows if the rurals do what happened in 2016 then it is a different ballgame…BTW the 2018 trendlines are in many ways matchung the 2016 trendlines…the big unknown is does that happen on day of voting…Mr. Ralston apprars to think not…but…as an old expression goes ‘That is why they play the game’….If tne GOP pulls a 2016 Heller will be happy with that

  722. JeffP says:

    744…I cannot think of any President in my lifetime that has the influence on a mid term like Trump. Early vote…rally’s…he turned into a national election. I think Tuesday will be a good day.

  723. Victrc says:


    I agree. I was certainly not a supporter of his during the primary, and like Bitter a reluctant voter, but not even Reagan or Obama elicited ths kind of emotion. And it’s global.

    Everywhere I go people talk about him, either good (Africa, Middle East, Poland, Eastern Europe) or bad (UK, France…). I’ve had high me,beers of the Saudi Royal family tell me he wins every day, to people who absolutely despise hi, (Dems on Congress absolutely abhor him, as do people in CA).

    But he has engaged everyone in a way no one else before has, not even Reagan on the right or Obama on the left.

    It will be interesting to see, when the ink is dry, how history perceives him.

  724. mnw says:

    RB & Hugh

    Of the 4 NV SEN polls RCP has up, Heller leads in 3, by an average of +2 pointa. Heller trails only in the CNN poll, where he is -3-points.

    So the EV is favorable to Heller, AND the polls are favorable. I don’t know whether RCP posts Harris Interactive polls or not, btw.

  725. mnw says:

    Pretty cool to have Bobby Knight speak at the rally tonight.

  726. Phil says:

    Silver now has Heller slightly behind in Nevada for the first time.

    He now has D+1 in the Senate with Ds ahead in Mo, Indiana, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Republicans only able to flip ND. He has Montana and WV going comfortably Democratic. Does give Tx and Tennessee to Republicans.

    That would be a horrid night.

  727. RB says:

    Mnw—at this point in a jump ball race polls are less meanungful…Sharon Angle lost in 2010 polls be darn…one thing not talked about often was that Tillis never led in one poll in the last month of 2014 and won the race…the early vote in NV is predictive…if the rurals come out on Election Day and Washue goes big to the GOP on election day than Heller wins…if not Rosen wins..

  728. Proud Obamacon says:

    President Obama in Atlanta tonight, absolutely ELECTRIC! GEORGIA, get out the vote and prove Big Joe wrong!


  729. RB says:

    Silver was spot on in 2012 and in 2016 at least gave the GOP a shot in 2016…but his last midterm did not predict GOP+9 in the Senate…so yes he is smart but not the be all end all on Midterms…Clair going on FoxNews tells me more than any poll projection of MO…she is behind

  730. mnw says:

    751 Phil

    I submit nobody in MO thinks McCaskill will be reelected at this point. I wonder why Silverhack sees MO differently? But I don’t really care.

  731. Hugh says:

    Phil. Silver has pushed all his chips in hoping for an inside straight. If he gets it he can ride it for 4 more years. If he doesn’t I think his reputation is shot. He can still make a lot shilling for the left but we can completely ignore him.

  732. mnw says:

    The toupees are always slow to pull the plug on a DEM incumbent– those are their FRIENDS. Recall how reluctant they were to give up on Heitkamp, & how ridiculously long it took for them to do so?

  733. mnw says:


    No, Silverhack always says, “We had that one within the MOE, so our prediction was correct.”

  734. Mr.Vito says:

    One of my favorite lines in 2016 was when a network host asked Silver during the night what his model was showing and he said:

    Right now, I would go with the betting odds, which has Trump slightly favored to win.

  735. Hugh says:

    Mnw. I agree. Everything for the so called experts and the pollsters is to predict dem advantages within the margin of error. All based on a huge youth vote. So far the ev shows it’s garbage but if they become honest discouraged dems will not vote. Conversely republicans no longer believe anyone and keep voting.

  736. Victrc says:

    If today was any indication there is not going to be any youth surge.

    While in line at least half a dozen millennials either refused to enter saying they weren’t going to wait this long just to vote, or left the line because they, again, didn’t want to wait that long to vote.

    Can’t see the youth standing in line for two hours to vote for mccaskl!!

  737. Mr.Vito says:

    By the way, the GOP did not turn out more voters in NV on election day in either 2012 nor 2016. Heller won with crossover and independent vote.

  738. Mr.Vito says:

    either… or

    for the grammar police

  739. mnw says:

    The grammar & spelling police ONLY flyspeck TROLLS… didn’t you notice?

  740. RB says:

    Well…Ralston thinkink Clark gets to Mid to Upper 40K..since the Washue GOP is asleep …all may not be roses in NV land…Rurals will come in too(except Lyon) but hard not now to see this as a squerer with maybe(based on EV) Heller a slight underdog

  741. JeffP says:

    Found these EV numbers posted on twitter by a few people….where are the links? Anyone know? Can’t be legit right?

    Early vote
    #Ohio Dems 274,731
    Reps 348,451

    #Indiana Dems 131,457
    Reps 205,284

    #Georgia Dems 586,389
    Reps 690,171

    #Florida Dems 1,365,812
    Reps 1,489,266

    #Arizona Dems 418,239
    Reps 561,181

    #Colorado Dems 332,520
    Reps 343,854

    #Michigan Dems 215,716
    Reps 330,540

  742. Hugh says:

    Mr Vito. Didn’t trump close a lot on Election Day.

  743. Mr.Vito says:

    “..since the Washue GOP is asleep …”

    What does he base that on?

    Both Dems and Reps are at 74% of 2016 turnout there.

    Reps are 80% of 2012 turnout and Dems at 82%

    The Dems are the ones who were underperforming in Clark.

  744. Phil says:

    Yes, Republicans did make up a lot of ground on election day in 2016. Vito probably has the exact numbers but it seemed Dems were something like +58K or something after early voting and I think cut the final margin on election day down to something like 22K. Did very well with indies I guess.

  745. mnw says:

    Larry Schweikart is funny, and writes well, in addition to his proven predictive talents.

    He just posted a 10-point tweet. Conclusion: Trust the EV not the polls. The numbers look very good, across the board,* for a happy Tuesday evening. Now, take two Tylenol & call me in the morning.”

    *except in IA, imo.

  746. Mr.Vito says:

    “Mr Vito. Didn’t trump close a lot on Election Day.”

    I don’t know in what order the votes were counted. He closed in the sense that Ralston declared it over, but the results came in closer than he thought.

    Still there were more registered Dems that voted on election day.

  747. Tina says:

    I do not see how silverfish can claim that enema will win.

    That is cheerleading.

  748. RB says:

    Mr Vito-the Washue comments were mine…just saying with a 2% registration advantage we should not be taking losses or draws there

  749. Tina says:

    Mnw, I think in Iowa, Rs always trail the ev.

    I believe Schweikart covered that a few weeks ago.

    I could be wrong, and confused it with another state.

  750. Phil says:

    Heller carried Washoe by 11 pts in 2012 and that was about the difference in the end. Indies there must like him.

  751. Mr.Vito says:

    Heck also did a little better in Washoe than Trump did. That is why Pence went to Carson City with Heller, I think.

  752. mnw says:

    Tina 773/775

    1) TOTALLY agree about AZ! That’s where the toupee wishcasting is most obvious. Gerasghty & LS agree that DEMs can not get Sinema elected now, given the EV. Predictit agrees, fwiw.

    2) I assume you read LS’ new 10-point tweet which he just posted. In the COMMENTS which are BELOW each of the tweets, he gives a lot of additional information which is NOT in his main tweets, if that makes sense. He’s very optimistic about holding the House. I suggest checking it all out.

    I don’t remember what LS said about IA, but it’s certainly going the opposite direction of EV in AZ; FL; & NV. (As mentioned, see FOX article, “GOP hopeful about early voting,” for details.

  753. Cash Cow TM says:

    Got a message from “wvally” who used to be a regular poster here.

    She is doing fine.

    She says she still lurks and reads HHR–but for some reason (connected to “Hal”) she is unable to post. Or else the Russians might have something to do with it.
    She says she misses conversing with her HHR pals–especially during this election cycle–and asked me to say hello from her to the ‘A-Holes’.

    Say “hi” and wave to wvally! 🙂

  754. MichiganGuy says:

    mnw says:
    November 2, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    The grammar & spelling police ONLY flyspeck TROLLS… didn’t you notice?
    I guess mnw thinks I’m a troll. 🙁

  755. MichiganGuy says:

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports

    Count at 7 PM in Clark: 43,600.
    wow, Looks like the dems may go up 7000 in Clark tonight.

  756. mnw says:

    780 MG

    How you figure?

    I never got after you about anything, did I?

    I try to be really careful. Sort of like the bug spray guy.

  757. Phil says:

    The Reid machine is what it is.

    Please tell me this is the last day of early voting.

  758. Cash Cow TM says:

    When are we going to do our election prediction on the top 12 contested U.S. Senate races?

    What would those 12 be?
    Cow is ready to get it over with.

  759. Tina says:

    Ronna McDaniel
    If President Obama actually wants to keep score: In 8 years, Obama had a net loss of 192,000 manufacturing and 111,500 mining jobs. In less than 2 years, @realDonaldTrump has created 416,000 manufacturing and 112,700 mining jobs. Don’t let Democrats stop this progress!

  760. Cash Cow TM says:

    Is there agreement that these are the key contested U.S. Senate races?

    Do we need to add more, or delete some?

  761. Mr.Vito says:

    Small silver lining in Iowa EV… The GOP has returned a slightly higher percentage of sent ballots than the Dems, and the turnout spread is between 2012 (CDs split 2-2) and 2016 (GOP won 3 CDs).

  762. Mr.Vito says:

    In WV, Dems are down 2.5% from 2016 as a share of total early vote… GOP is up 1.8% and Ind up 0.7%.

  763. MichiganGuy says:

    #788 In WV, it’s not the dems we have to worry about. It’s the republicans who will vote for Manchin.

  764. MichiganGuy says:

    Clark vote now at….48,000. Going to go past 50K.

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports
    9m9 minutes ago

    Reminder: Last day of early voting in 2016 was 57K. This could come close. How much did the Dems win Clark by with that kind of turnout in 2016 on the last day?

    11,000 votes.
    Well, that is not good.

  765. Mr.Vito says:

    Still better odds to have an 80% GOP person voting than a 80% Dem person…

  766. Scooby77 says:

    Mr. Vito, how are you feeling about Nevada? Does tonight change your sense that Heller wins, narrowly?

  767. Mr.Vito says:

    I expected 8000-10000 today for the Ds from Clark… so it doesn’t change much for me. But, I never said I thought Heller would win… I just report the fact that the EV numbers have been better for Heller than in 2012 and 2016.

  768. Redmen4ever says:

    If there are run-off elections in both Mississippi and Georgia, to which do you bus Democrats from Alabama?

  769. Waingro says:

    Uh oh.

    “Whoa. Georgia added more than a quarter million new votes today to their total”

    “The total number of Georgia votes on Friday is 243,248, 233,062 from in-person and 10,186 from mail. The overall White share of early voters dropped from 58.8% to 58.1%, and the share of age 18-29 increased from 9.4% to 10.3%”

  770. Phil says:

    There is no way to sugar coat Nevada.

    Last couple of polls have shown Heller down. Tonight explains why.

    We better hang on to Arizona.

  771. MichiganGuy says:

    Nevada update:
    Carson was 540 Dem – 711 GOP it looks like. 1699 total voters.

  772. michael corleone says:

    I gotta say, Republcians are dummies. They had control of Nevada and never changed the early vote rules. Should have cut to one week, max. So stupid that they set up polling places at malls.

  773. Mr.Vito says:

    Incidentally, 10.3% and the 18.1% for 30-44 are both down from 2016.

  774. janz says:

    Larry Schweikart
    1) Here’s the TX data from Freeper “Ravi”

    HARRIS-29.42% (-3.01%)
    DALLAS-32.14% (-0.31%)
    BEXAR-30.75% (-1.68%)
    TRAVIS-38.22% (+5.79%)
    EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)
    HIDALGO-25.59% (-6.84%)
    CAMERON-21.53% (-10.9%)

    7:54 PM – Nov 1, 2018
    201 people are talking about this
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    Larry Schweikart
    · Nov 1, 2018
    Replying to @LarrySchweikart

    TARRANT-33.55% (+1.12%)
    COLLIN-40.52% (+8.09%)
    DENTON-37.42% (+4.99%)
    MONTGOMERY-34.36% (+1.93%)
    WILLIAMSON-40.53% (+8.1%)

    Larry Schweikart
    3) based on TargetSmart who have modeled all the voters (scary that they are able to do this), they have determined a “modeled” electorate.
    REPS-2,378,270 voters have cast ballots
    DEMS-1,689,078 voters have cast ballots

    (They are a D firm, so watch out).

    7:55 PM – Nov 1, 2018

  775. sane_voter says:

    Let’s see what the final numbers are for all NV counties before throwing in the towel.

    Prior to today, 151k had early voted during week2 in Clark, with Dems +19k. If they get 50k today, expect a Dem +7k margin for a total of +26k. Week 1 was Dems+18k, for a Dem +44k out of Clark. Total votes would be about 384k.

    In 2016 Clark had an Dem EV margin of 71k out of 488k total votes. So Dems are still underperforming quite a bit from 2016.

  776. sane_voter says:

    I ignored Clark absentees as they are about even for both 2016 and 2018.

  777. Phil says:

    ‘’Republicans are dummies”

    No argument here. Constantly shoot themselves in the foot. Nevada was a great example.

  778. ReadyFirst says:

    Meh, I was right, no big news tonight. Glad I went to a birthday party.

    Big Joe, if every Dem was like you the world would be a better place.

  779. Florida Guy says:

    I was never sold on NV. I think the Auto Mauf./Retailer/Rasmussen polls show McSally surging.

    So I predict:

    1 of AZ or NV
    1 of FL, MO or IN

    Not sure about the other contesteds.

  780. Mr.Vito says:

    Red counties netted about 1700 for the GOP, with Elko and some others still out.

  781. MichiganGuy says:

    Nevada Update:
    Some of the rural counties have come in:
    GOP picked up 1660 EV/VBM votes.

  782. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito beat me to it. I’m not sure where he got the extra 100 but, he is probably right.

  783. MichiganGuy says:

    Meant 40

  784. michael corleone says:

    NV comes down to 2 questions – can GOP get anything out of Washoe and can they lose Clark by no more than 11 points. If yes and yes we will be ok. If not, good heavens.

  785. MichiganGuy says:

    So, it looks like we are down by 12000 so far.
    2012 we were down 48227 EV/VBM (Heller won by 11,576 votes)
    2016 we were down 45072 EV/VBM (Trump lost by 26,434 votes)
    I would say Heller is a lot more popular in Nevada than Trump so even if, the dems win Clark by 11k they will only win the EV/VBM by 23k. Heller is still looking real good. It all will come down to how the Indies vote.

  786. phoenixrisen says:

    Agreed MG. There is not enough of a margin there for Dems in NV. Dems need a lot of Indie help to upend Heller. Dems have an edge with Indies nationally but not enough to overcome like you see in a wave election.

  787. michael corleone says:

    They are not going to win Clark by 11K. 9200 absolute max in the in-person, which is equivalent to the final early day in 2016 (57,159) multiplied by 16% (assuming Ds win the day by 16 points – this hasn’t happened at any time during this voting period). If Rs lose by 10 points today, as they have done most of the voting period, D’s only net about 5700 votes from Clark which is extremely manageable. And then there are absentees, which have a slight D lean, but your talking about 600 votes here.

  788. michael corleone says:

    Washoe is reported, but it is just the raw data. Dunno.

  789. Mr.Vito says:

    Looks like Dems win Washoe by about 1000, which is what I actually penciled in as a guess.

    Really big turnout.

  790. michael corleone says:

    And GOP loses over 1000 votes from Washoe. Looking grim.

  791. MichiganGuy says:

    MC read post#811 again
    dems went up 1780 in Washoe not a big deal.

  792. michael corleone says:

    MG I don’t think you can look at raw vote when comparing to presidential cycles. Need to look at %. I think this seat is lost. This was a mini-election day and if these trends are replicated nationally we can lose the Senate.

  793. Hugh says:

    In nv heller won in 12 and Clark county crushed it. We are
    Going to be fine.

  794. Victrc says:

    Ok color me confused. I see so many number flying around for Nevada…+47000 from Ralzton… +9000 Clark here and there… etc etc

    What does it all mean. Lol

  795. MichiganGuy says:

    MC, Nevada is a conservative state. The Indies in Nevada are way more conservative than most of the country. Heller won the Indies in 2012 and I believe he will win them again.

  796. michael corleone says:

    I hope you are right, but where are the conservative voters in Washoe? They never showed up. That is what scares me the most – we actually had an EV lead in Washoe in 2016.

  797. MichiganGuy says:

    Victrc, I explain it in post#811

  798. NYCmike says:

    Tuesday will be here soon enough.

    Relax a little bit.

    8 years of Obama. We can handle anything.

  799. MichiganGuy says:

    MC, Republicans did show up. Washoe is not a red county. It is a purple county.
    Washoe EV/VBM
    Rep 53,742
    Dem 52,862
    Dem 58,674
    Rep 57,838
    Dem 49,256
    Rep 47,495

  800. michael corleone says:

    MG, I know Washoe is purple but we were way below our registration there. I was hoping to win the county.

    More importantly, do I wait for Clark, or go to bed? Will Clark come through this evening?

  801. Victrc says:


    So it looks like we lost washoe by approx 900 votes in 12 and 16, and now are down about 1800 this year, which is double what we were down before.

    Now if I understand correctly we are down about 48,000 right now in Clark county, which is on par with 12 and 16.

    For the entire state, counting the red counties that have come in we’re down, in the entire state in total, by 23,000 in 2018.

    In previous years are you saying that total above was higher?

  802. michael corleone says:

    Vic – overall we are ahead of 12 and 16 with respect to our statewide deficit to the Ds at the end of early voting (when calculated on a percentage basis). That will not change tonight. We have overperformed in Clark this cycle, but underperformed in Washoe. But I’m not sure it is enough.

  803. MichiganGuy says:

    MC, I’m going to sleep. I don’t know what time they will be in.

  804. Victrc says:

    Michigan. Good night thanks for the info

    MC ok that makes sense, but I went to sos site and it appears our overperforming in Clark should outweigh the underperformance in Washoe, no?just because of the raw total difference.

  805. MichiganGuy says:

    Victr, we are down around 12,000 statewide right now. It appears after Clark #’s come in we will be down around 23,000 statewide. In 2012, we were down 48,000 statewide for early voting. In 2016 we were down 45,000 statewide for early voting. So, we are looking at dems being up by half of what past elections have been.

  806. Victrc says:


    Ok…that seems like good news. Why do some have the doom and gloom regarding where we are st?

  807. Bitterlaw says:

    I know this will cause Wes to give his usual Daily Kos rant about GWB but I will ask it anyway. If Republicans in a state “win” Election Day by casting more ballots than Democrats, why do people support early voting? Why give the lazy Dems a head start?

  808. hugh says:

    832. I think we felt that if we kept it to 22k or less we should win. at or above its a dogfight. Until yesterday it seemed unlikely clark would come in so big. who goes out and votes Friday night? My guess is the union bused them to the polls then threw parties who knows.

    Mr. Vito. You were right and I was wrong.

  809. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In Florida, the GOP leads by 56,902 after yesterday’s early voting. This is down about 1,500 from the day before although GOP strongholds of Clay and Martin Counties have yet to report their results from yesterday.
    The Democrats will own this weekend so keep your seatbelts fastened!

  810. DW says:

    I am not seeing any blue wave, but I am not seeing any red wave either. Very close election with each side getting wins and taking hard losses. House control on the razor’s edge.

  811. DW says:

    Interesting that in the ongoing Siena polling, across most of their races GOP did great on Thursday night, then last night the Dems crushed the GOP.

    I will still maintain my skepticism about Siena and point out that in all 7 competitive house races they polled in 2014 and 2016 they had a D tilt in all 7.

  812. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Newt Gingrich has repeatedly said that weekend polling is inaccurate especially Friday night polling never picks up Republicans because they are attending their local high school football games.
    The former Speaker said this, not me!

  813. Todd McCain says:

    795. According to the 2016 Georgia Exit poll; 18-29 year olds were 18% of the electorate so the fact that the EV is only 10% would seem extremely problematic for Dems.

  814. phoenixrisen says:

    DW, that is what I am seeing as well. Very tough mid-term to predict. That is why I had a range of 10-30 seat loss in the House. It can go either way. The jobs report wad HUGE going into the weekend. That could be the clincher for the undecideds.

  815. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Yesterday’s turnout in Clark County, NV was 48,800, down about 9,000 from the same day in 2016.The Party allocation is pending.

    The Dem. early turnout this year should be around 25,000 fewer souls than in 2016, in which Clinton won NV by 27,000 votes.

  816. RB says:

    Assuming yesterday that there was 50K…the Dems have been winning by a 10 point margin pretty consistently (45-35)

    If thar trend continued yesterday they get hunch is it could creep up to 6K perhaps as on the final day they may expand that 10 point margin

    GOP will cut into that by about 500 votes when Elko comes in

  817. Todd McCain says:

    Heller has some work cut out for him but not impossible.

    Still like our chances in ND, MO, IN and FL.

  818. Skippy says:

    After analyzing these Early Vote returns for the last 2 weeks on a hourly basis…

    Democrats are sucking wind.

    Democrats may…MAY…lead in EV in Florida by 10,000 going into Tuesday. But goodness their numbers have to disappointing inside their war rooms.

    Nevada?….I think Heller can breath now. He has a real shot to win a squeaker. He is in the game.

    Republicans have come out in EV. I believe they are coming out on Election. Keep the date from INDY voters to a minimum and we are going to be in the game late into the night on Tuesday.

    Again…these EV Florida numbers for the Democrats are putrid.

  819. Skippy says:

    keep the *damage*…

  820. phoenixrisen says:

    Skippy, how in the world are Democrats going to net 67K in FL EV in a weekend?

  821. jaichind says:

    Ideally the NV EV numbers should be report in terms of % of total EV by party and broken down by Clark, Washoe, rest of NV, and all NV.

    Absolute numbers does not work as well since total turnout will be lower than 2016.

  822. Skippy says:


    Because the Democrats did it 2016 with room to spare.

    But there is no question they are well off their pace which I and many on here have been showing for days.

    Democrats should have cut into Republicans leads the last 2 days by heathy margins..and they haven’t. Next 2 days will be dominated by the younger early voter. Democrats need to at least take the lead in early voting. We shall see.

  823. JeffP says:

    From here in Indiana…things are looking good for Braun. The Trump voters here are engaged.

  824. phoenixrisen says:

    Skippy, I get that but that was a presidential election and that turn out was due to Hillary’s GOTV operation. Seems like a very heavy lift.

    Here is something to crack everyone up:


  825. MichiganGuy says:

    jaichind, be my guess. Right now it is looking like 2018 #’s will reach 80% of 2016 #’s so, the numbers aren’t that far off. Like I said earlier the dems lead over GOPs in EV/VBM is down 50% from 2016. If Heller wins Indies like he did in 2012 Rosen has no chance to win.

  826. MichiganGuy says:

    SB guest

  827. Todd McCain says:

    850. Dems gained over 50K in one day in 2016; it’s certainly possible but doesn’t seem likely.

  828. Albert Hodges says:

    So on this Saturday morning, it appears as if:

    Cramer, Hartley, Braun are good bets to win.

    McSally, Blackburn and Cruz should win.

    Scott and Rosendale are close.

    Heller is 50/50.

    And all others are somewhere between coming in 3-5% behind or even worse (Morrisey, James, Hugin).

  829. Scooby77 says:

    I like Mr. Vito’s measured take on Nevada. Ralston’s liberal cheerleading, seemingly based on cold hard facts, can certainly be deflating. Washoe hasn’t been what we’d hoped, but the rurals are revved up.

    I think the whole Nevada ball game comes down to one question: which way are the Indies breaking?

  830. Chicon says:

    The % of registered voters is important information in EV. Helps answer whether the turnout is because of an activated base or because more people are just deciding to vote early.

  831. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    About those hysterical “youth vote” tweets saying GA was up 400%: GA 2016 (18-29): 10.5% of all voters GA 2018 (18-29): 9.4% of all voters R voters: 846,767 D voters: 726,937 I voters: 83,367
    View details ·

  832. JeffP says:

    OMG..just saw video from the stage view from WV rally yesterday. Thousands…it was really shocking from that perspective. No President has connected with everyday Americans…tho sis going to be some mid term. I don’t think the polls reflect that. Could be another 2016 shocker.

  833. MichiganGuy says:

    Chicon, If more people decide to vote early that means their base is active. We will not know until after the elections are over if, these are new registered voters or regular voters that decided to vote early.

  834. Scooterboy says:

    Schweikart is projecting a final Republican lead between 175,000 and 200,000 on election night. Giving a Scott victory and a narrow Desantis victory. He’s saying that could change if Dems turnout 50,000 tomorrow. But doesn’t think that will happen.

  835. Todd McCain says:

    Dems netted 9000 in Clark yesterday.

  836. Scooterboy says:

    Schweikart- R lead over D in Arizona is now 160,000.
    Enema was done yesterday.

  837. Tina says:

    Schweikart indicates that we are up 160000 in Ev in Arizona.

    Enema is done,

  838. RB says:

    Dem statewide lead now a little over 23K

    When Elko comes in it will be around 22.5K…

    So a nailbiter…GOP needs a big Tuesday turnout

  839. Scooby77 says:


    So Dems go into election day with a 23,000 vote lead statewide. Insurmountable, no, but I would’ve preferred something around 19-20k.

  840. sane_voter says:

    Dems netted +9k out of 48k votes in Clark on Friday. Clark is at Dem +47k for overall EV/AB.

  841. RB says:

    Dems probably won Clark by high teens as opposes to the 10% they were getting most of the 2 weeks

  842. hugh says:

    when all the EV is recorded in NV with absentee votes the net difference will be a little under 22000. Could have been worse with clarks turnout yesterday. it will be close, but I think Heller wins

  843. JeffP says:

    FLA just updated…R +56K

  844. Hugh says:

    RB maybe my math is wrong, but I have the current lead at 22K plus change per the nv website

  845. RB says:

    I could have hit the wrong button or maybe the SOS updated absentee

  846. mnw says:

    863 Tina

    Did you know (probably) that Schweikart frequently provides additional info in the comments following his tweets? That’s where I found some of his actual predictions yesterday.

  847. MichiganGuy says:

    I don’t know why I bother sometimes. LOL

  848. Tina says:

    Go to Barris Twitter feed on Nevada.

    We need more Washoe, this is Hellers home base so to speak.

    It also depends on the indies.

    Heller won them 57 or whatTrevor to 33.

    This is what kept Teump in the game in Nv.

  849. mnw says:


    Why did you post, “I must be a troll, then”?

    I’ve never posted anything implying that.

  850. RB says:

    Redid the math getting D + 23,231

  851. Albert Hodges says:

    I dont do or understand how twitter works so can someone tell me Larry S.’s current thoughts/predictions? I think he is one of the best and most data driven of the pundits.

  852. Tina says:

    Mnw, yes saw it. Thanks.

  853. mnw says:


    I will, but first, you can just search for “@LarrySchweikart” & go right to his site. You don’t need to be a twitter member.

    Now, let me go read his newest posts & see if he’c changed anything this morning.

    Going only by memory from last night, he has GOP +4-6SEN, & GOP losing 5-15 House seats, but let me double check. He also predicts 5-8 D to R flips, as I recall.

  854. MichiganGuy says:

    #875 mnw, I was talking more of Jason & Wes being the grammar police but, I do remember you pointed out that I spelled Missouri Senator candidate Hawley (Harley) wrong and said something about Harley Davidson. I’m sure you just did that in a good nature fun way though.

  855. Tina says:

    Heller won Indies by 20 in 2012

    Quittens won them by 7.

    Trumo won them by 16 in 2016.

    We are still in the game in Nv. It ain’t Ovah.

  856. sane_voter says:

    With just Elko and a few other small counties outstanding:
    2018 Dem 41.5% Rep 37.8% Ind 20.7%
    2016 Dem 42.0% Rep 36.2% Ind 21.8%

    Dem -0.5%, Rep +1.6% Ind -1.1% vs 2016

    Net of 2.1% for Reps.

  857. Tina says:

    d Baris
    Replying to @Peoples_Pundit
    Putting aside the narratives for a second, if you were Dean Heller, you’d have to feel much better about the EV+ABs net change this year vs. 2012. Updated: 11/3/2018 12:00 a.m. In-Person Early Vote D=97,343 R=86,560 NP=53,184 Absentee Ballots D=10,218 R=11,379 NP=5,312
    View conversation ·

  858. mnw says:


    I forgot that! It was purely a joke.

    Not quite the same as spelling “disintigrate” (sic) with three iii’s. And I would have forgotten to notice that too, but…Ebola!

  859. MichiganGuy says:

    #883 Finally, someone gets it.

  860. sane_voter says:

    Dem Margin in 2018, 3.7%
    Dem Margin in 2016, 5.8%

    36% net reduction in margin

  861. Cash Cow TM says:

    This thread is useless so far today, because we do not have Robbie or CG’s views.

  862. Cash Cow TM says:


    “Scientists may have found the key ingredient for universal flu vaccine, and it comes from llamas…”

    Not sure what part of the llama….

  863. RB says:

    Mr. Ralston seems to think a 3.0% early lead will be enough..we’ll see…the 3.7% could creep down a smidgion when Elko comes in

  864. Cash Cow TM says:

    “… that I spelled Missouri Senator candidate Hawley (Harley) wrong…”

    Isn’t “Harley” the correct pronunciation by Chinese Americans?

    Just asking…

  865. RB says:

    I don’t think that the Rurals are canniobolizing votes…the trend lines followed the exact pattern of 2016…so i would anticipate election day turnout to be about 85% of 2016 following the pattern

  866. sane_voter says:

    COmparing 2018 to 2012 w/Elko and a few other small counties outstanding:
    2018 Dem 41.5% Rep 37.8% Ind 20.7%
    2012 Dem 43.8% Rep 37.0% Ind 19.2%

    Dem -2.3%, Rep +0.8% Ind +1.5% vs 2012

    Net of 3.1% for Reps.

    Dem Margin in 2018, 3.7%
    Dem Margin in 2016, 6.8%

    46% net reduction in margin

    Obama won NV in 2012 by 6.7%
    Heller won NV in 2012 by 1.2%

  867. mnw says:

    877 Albert Hodges

    RE: Larry Schweikart’s predictions (up to the minute):

    1) SENATE = GOP +4-6. (Has GOP winning all the close ones. Believes Scott wins, but Gillum? maybe/maybe not).

    2) HOUSE = GOP loses between 5-15 seats. GOP holds House, obviously. Sees between 3-8 D-to-R flips. (Yoder (R-KS) & Coffman (R-CO) gone; GOP wins all close seats in TX)

    P.S. LS ignores polls, & goes ONLY on EV; past election results; party registration (where available). In 2016, Schweikart was a numbers cruncher for Bannon, btw. LS got every state right, except WI. And he started saying Trump would win electoral college by a landslide appx 4 months before the 2016 GE. He got ridiculed for his silly pipedream of a Trump victory, btw.

  868. mnw says:

    Cow 890

    Do you know when the Chinese have their elections?

    Right before bleakfast, usually.

  869. MichiganGuy says:

    #893 sane_voter thanks for your work. Most people here are too lazy and need to be spoon fed.

  870. Albert Hodges says:

    Thanks, MNW!

    I appreciate the info on LS’s site and the updates here as well.

  871. mnw says:

    I recalled from basal stem memory that Heller had outperformed other Repubs in NV. That has influenced EVERYTHING I’ve read about NV. Heller outperforms.

  872. mnw says:


    My pleasure. As stated to Tina, LS frequently posts ADDITIONAL information in the Comments section which follow his tweets.

    His set-up isn’t very user-friendly, imo. He makes you work, & it takes a lot of getting used to. I wish he would just start his own blog.

  873. Diamond Jim says:


  874. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow Pole-ing, Inc.
    712 Likely Registered Cows
    22% Angus, 13% Hereford (Polled and Unpolled), 17% Holstein, 8% various Short and Longhorns, 20% Guernsey, 19% other identified breeds, AND 1% other farm animals who self-identify as cows.
    MOE= +/-92%

    AZ—R, McSally(ride around Sally, do a victory lap)
    FL—R, Scott (GREAT SCOTT!)
    IN—R, Braun (Braun beats brains out of opponent)
    MI, D, Stabmenow (cows ay she wins teets down)
    MN, D, Smith (Ms. Smith goes back to Washington)
    MO—R, Hawley (Hawley ‘forks’ McCaskill)
    MT—D, Tester (They vote for the Tester…)
    NJ—D, Menendez (…and the molester)
    NV—R, Heller (the Hell you say!)
    ND—R, Cramer (he gets 90% of Sienfeld viewers)
    OH–D, Brown (voters again wait to see what Brown can do for them…)
    TN—R, Blackburn (She burns the opposition)
    TX—R, Cruz (Cruz cruises)
    WI—D, Baldwin (I got nothin…)
    WV—D, Manchin (…here either…)
    U.S. House of Rep final
    D 221
    R 214

  875. Todd McCain says:

    Larry is either going to look like a genius or a complete goof.

  876. mnw says:

    John Brennan has endorsed Beto (THAT should help! /s)

    Jeff Flake: “Republicans have embraced conspiracy theories & the politics of hate.” Jeff Flake, the gift that keeps on giving!

    Btw, if Flake is helping McSally, I haven’t seen anything about it. That could be because Flake is Flake, or it could be because McSally doesn’t want any part of him.

  877. sane_voter says:

    Schwiekart is the Rep version of Ralston. I hit his twitter feed regularly, but he does spin things to the Rep side.

  878. Cash Cow TM says:

    Do you know when the Chinese have their elections?

    Right before bleakfast, usually.

    Walt tells the story of going with his dad on a vacation/mineral collecting trip to Canada many decades ago.

    They stopped to eat at a restaurant operated by Chinese folks. The Chinese guy comes over to the table and notices Walt’s dad looking at some mineral magazines and says:

    “So, you lock corrector?” [rock collector]

    True story.

  879. Tina says:

    Flakey is helping China and the Mullahs.

    He has been bought.

  880. Scooterboy says:

    According to Schweikart, yesterday was a flop for Dems in Nevada.
    According to Ralston, it was huge for Dems.
    As someone who doesn’t follow these things as closely as some of you, I’ll admit I’m thoroughly confused.

  881. Hugh says:

    904. But in 2016 he was the only pundit who got it right.

  882. Todd McCain says:

    Larry is not accurate at all; yesterday was definitely a great day for Dems in Nevada. They added 10K to their lead.

  883. Mr.Vito says:

    Yesterday was NOT a flop for Dems in Nevada. It wasn’t bad for the GOP either.

    Turnout relative to 2016 in Clark:
    Dem: 78.3%
    GOP: 84.1%
    Ind: 75.5%

    Turnout relative to 2012 in Clark:
    Dem: 82.5%
    GOP: 89.5%
    Ind: 94.8%

    If I had to guess? The Latino surge that was bragged about in 2016 didn’t show up…


    Similar result in Miami-Dade:

    Turnout relative to 2016 as of what I saw yesterday:
    Dem: 53%
    GOP: 61%
    Ind: 45%

  884. mnw says:


    Did u read what he just posted… the numbered tweets about NV?

    There is info there about Washoe, & other info, which I haven’t seen elsewhere.

    He likes GOP chances in NV-03 & NV-04 a LOT, btw.

  885. Tina says:

    The ev advantage in 2012 was d plus 60000.

  886. Mr.Vito says:

    If true, that is good news for the GOP, because those independents would have leaned far more toward D than R.

  887. sane_voter says:

    Clark early voting

    Week2 Fri Week2 tot % of week2
    2018 48833 200849 24.3
    2016 57159255360 22.4
    2012 48095

    Friday week2 in 2018 was 8.6% higher than 2016. So slighly better for the Dems this year. Not huge but not

  888. Tina says:

    It is drat plus 22000/23000 now.

    Some counties have not reported.

    Again,, heller won indies by 20.

    We need a huge R turnout and we need to win Indies like 2012.

    Very doable.

  889. Mr.Vito says:

    It would also explain why the GOP seems in it in AZ, NV, FL, and Cali while MO and IN are polling close.

  890. michael corleone says:

    Schweikart doesn’t know what he is talking about – he’s a fraud and already corrected his BS on Washoe. NV was a disaster for Rs yesterday, but for the entire EV period Rs shaved 2% off the D advantage from 2016. If indies perform like they did in 2016, Heller wins. But I think they perform worse given the climate. Strong advantage Rosen

  891. RB says:

    I dont think Sweikert is correct…first this is not 2016 and comparing midterm numbers to Presidential numbers is not smart…the Dems had a hugh day yesterday no sugar coating that..and there is no way the GOP is up in CD4 like Sweikert suggests and Tarkis probably down some

    That said the percentage is the key the Dems will have about a 3.6% early vote lead which probably means this is a nailbiter in the Senate and if Heller squeaks through it is his popularity in Washue(which we will know by election day vote) and Invumbancy…we’ll see

  892. sane_voter says:

    Clark early voting

    Yr—–Week2 Fri—–Week2 tot —–% of week2

    So Dems slightly overperformed this Friday compared to previous years. Worth a few thousand votes.

  893. Tina says:

    Athein1 indicates d. Early vote is 22k and will go down further as r counties report.

  894. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, he already corrected himself; he’s fun to read but I always do your own checking.

  895. Todd McCain says:

    And he deleted his tweets LOL.

  896. Mr.Vito says:

    Schweikert and Ralston are both cheerleaders.

    The Dems did well yesterday and needed it. I guessed 8-10 thousand, looks like that was right.

    I guessed Washoe would net Ds 1000 and looks like that was right.

    The GOP turnout in Clark has been wonderful.

    The independents are really down in Clark.

  897. Mr.Vito says:

    Washoe has clearly been trending blue over the last few cycles as you would expect with Reno, regardless of what the registration says.

  898. mnw says:

    RAS (Rasmussen Reports) had an interesting article yesterday It reports tha:

    60% of DEMs say they’re more likely to tell someone how they’re voting this year, compared to 2016;

    49% is the corresponding GOP number.

    My comment: Remember how many thousands of calls NYT/Siena had to make, in order to get a few hundred responses?

  899. Mr.Vito says:

    If the splits from the Siena Nevada poll are applied right now, it would translate to Heller being down 4000 votes going into election day.

  900. lisab says:

    man arrested for spraypainting antisemitic messages on a temple worked for the Obama campaign.

  901. MichiganGuy says:

    Missouri Senate:
    Josh Hawley 47%
    Claire McCaskill 47%
    Japheth Campbell 1%
    Jo Crainm 1%
    Craig O’Dear: 1%
    Remington Research Poll

  902. Scooterboy says:

    I don’t know if the Hawley campaign is running low on funds or what, but it seems like the McCaskill ads on t.v. and radio are triple what I’m seeing from Hawley.

  903. JeffP says:

    This is why I think the GOP will keep the house. The California EV.

  904. mnw says:

    There is no EV in MO, unfortunately. In any event, Schweikart lists only ND & MO as “GOP locks.” Last time I looked at Predictit (which is rarely), they had Hawley at 60 & McC at 40.

  905. JeffP says:

    Trump voters will carry the day in states like ND, IN, MO, MT, WV, FL, TX, AZ, OH and various districts that he took in 2016.

  906. Tina says:

    Montana rally to start soon.

    Pensacola rally tonite.

  907. ReadyFirst says:

    FL Reps gain a bit in EV in the 1:07 update.
    R890,299 – D899,580. Total AB/EV spread now about 59k.

  908. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #934- Ready First
    “Slightly” is not the right word. One Florida County–Clay– bumped the Republican ballot lead from 56,265 to 58,868.

  909. JeffP says:

    I just got a text from GOP…

    This is Pres. Trump. 46064 is going to be HUGE for the IN elections. I NEED to know how many votes we have there. Commit to VOTE >>

  910. JeffP says:

    Make sure you watch the link in #930.

  911. JeffP says:

    Florida is amazing me…along with what is happening in California of all places.

  912. Mr.Vito says:

    “One Florida County–Clay– bumped the Republican ballot lead from 56,265 to 58,868.”

    I live right on the county line with Bradford.

  913. SoHope says:

    I lived in clay county FL for 4 years….very very red

  914. hugh says:

    spoke with a couple of my partners who live in the broward suburbs both have not EV. They said there is like site and the line if forever when they go by, so they said they are waiting for ED, because they think the line will be shorter because all the sites will be open versus one. near the beach there a lots of places to early vote.

  915. Tina says:

    Landing in Montana now – at least everybody admits that my lines and crowds are far bigger than Barack Obama’s…

  916. RB says:

    Heard a GOP data analyst suggest dems are doing good in FL EV cause the white vote is at 60% . Was on Fox News about an hour ago.

    That being said i would rather be leading EV than not…but we know the Dems will surge today and especially tomorrow

  917. sane_voter says:

    How do they know the FL EV racial breakdown? Is that officially reported anywhere?

  918. Scooterboy says:

    I would assume a GOP data analyst would have the same data that Schweikart is privy to. Yet one says the Dems are doing well in Florida, while the other makes it seem the Repubs are . This has all been very strange.

  919. Redmen4ever says:

    The St. Pete’s Poll is very informative.

    It indicates that the Nelson is ahead among those who have already voted, and Scott will win big on election day, big enough to win the election.

    This is the traditional formula.

    Yet. the Early Voting data show Republicans ahead (to be sure, by a small amount).

    The Democrats are saying this is because their candidate (here and elsewhere) is winning among independents and stealing more of our votes than we are stealing of their votes. Yet, the breakdowns in Florida show that our guy is winning the independents and our guy is stealing more of their votes than their guy is stealing our votes. So, the Democrat rationalization of our lead in early voting is so much hogwash.

    The other explanation is that it is really tough to poll Republicans, and post-stratification (weighting by demographics) isn’t a sufficient remedy. There is “within-cell” bias.

    The other explanation means our votes are not fully reflected in the polls. Perhaps by as much as four points on average.

    As it is, we’re going into this election with the prospect of a net pick up of 2 or more Senate seats, and a net loss in the House, probably amounting to a loss of our majority. We have reason to be hopeful of much better outcomes.

  920. ReadyFirst says:

    943. RB Saw that too. It concerned me. The analyst was from Optimus, Rubios group, so I got researching. Bottom line, analyst was way wrong (also, Optimus’ info was from their polling data). So, the real data from EV is almost 70% white. After a quick fisk, I feel even better about FL now. Also, the author self corrected, and the Hispanic turnout is 12.4%, not 16.4%. This is a trove of FL info! Almost a small boom.

  921. Bitterlaw says:

    Llamas can prevent flu. That would explain why Jason is so healthy.

  922. hugh says:

    I would expect the % white vote is much higher on Election Day. If you ever went on the weekends to the downtown voting sites its long line of blacks primarily. That vote will largely be in by tomorrow. Voting options in the burbs are slim.

  923. hugh says:

    BTW the EV for fl right now is 71% not 60. Who was the guy on Fox?

  924. ReadyFirst says:

    Yep, lot’s of people in FL registered to vote since 2016, and it was a wash.

    “Of the nearly ~4.5m votes cast, 268k are by voters who registered since the Nov 2016 GE. 37% are Ds, 36% are Rs.”

  925. ReadyFirst says:

    950. Hugh, see my 947. The analyst said the voter breakdown was 63% white 2018 vs. 70% in 2016. It was based on their polling data. Rubio needs a new polling company. The articles from Optimus in a google search are funny. Trump can’t win, Rubio will win FL etc.

  926. ReadyFirst says:

    Also, I want to point out, electionsmith is a Gator, Go Gators!

  927. hugh says:

    screw the gators. Go Irish!!

  928. Tina says:

    Brent Musburger
    Elizabeth Warren’s “relatives” backing Trump in Montana!
    View photo ·

    This pic will trigger the Jebots.

  929. mnw says:

    955 Tina

    RE: MT SEN

    I read that the Crow tribal council in MT had in fact endorsed Rosendale. I believe I read that they are unhappy with Tester because of his voting record regarding mining/drilling on their tribal land.

    Don’t know how many votes the Crow endorsement is worth, but you see signs about them & their businesses on the interstates, fwiw.

    I regard the chances of a GOP pickup in MT as being about the same as a pickup in WV– very poor. At some point, the totality of the data becomes irresistible– same reason I think MO is a very probable GOP pickup.

  930. Scooby77 says:

    Martha McSally just sang the National Anthem at the ASU-Utah game; nailed it.

    Is there anything she can’t do? C’mon Arizona, do the right thing.

  931. mnw says:

    Tomorrow, the first Sunday in November, is the annual National Remembrance Day for Americans Killed By Illegal Aliens. Sponsored by The Remembrance Project.

    Trump attended a previous National Remembrance Day event, I recall.

  932. hugh says:

    I think MT is definitely in play. WV not so much

  933. Waingro says:

    New St. Pete FL polls

    Scott: 49.1%
    Nelson: 47.5%

    Gillum: 48.4%
    Desantis: 46.3%

  934. RB says:

    Anyone know if DMR/Selzer doing an IA gov poll…and hopefully sone CDs there?

  935. mnw says:


    The sample looks “right,” but they have both DEMs winning EV pretty handily. They have 8% more women than men, which is OK for FL, I guess.

  936. mnw says:


    I dunno. I’ve wondered the same thing. She did one a week before the 2016 GE, so… pretty late in the day now. Perhaps the Des Moines Tribune is holding it for their Sunday edition? The paper pays for her polls.

    IA & CO are the 2 states where Schweikart is not optimistic, from what I can recall.

  937. mnw says:

    963 sb “Des Moines Register”

  938. ReadyFirst says:

    960.962. WG & mnw. Read Reds 946. on that poll.

  939. Marv says:

    FL SOS update @ 4:06 pm EDT:


    St Pete poll has both Nelson and Gillum @ +8 with indies.

  940. mnw says:

    965 RF

    Thx. Forgot your comment.

  941. Messy says:

    The Bahamas was really nice. The Supreme Court there has banned the color red in the courtroom. Apparently the Chief Justice is phobic.

    In the Senate, according to the latest polls, has MO, TENN, TX(!) and FL tied. Nev. and AZ with a Dem lead. Y’all may very well lose the senate as well as the House.

    Have a happy sunday.

  942. Mr.Vito says:

    ” the Hispanic turnout is 12.4%, not 16.4%. ”

    That would support post 910.

  943. hugh says:

    If Gilligan is plus 8 with independents than the Republic is doomed

  944. Messy says:

    927. He probably also voted for Trump.

  945. ReadyFirst says:

    mnw, WG. Also, St. Pete Poll 64.9% white? way off! See my 947. Its a Great FL electorate breakdown.

  946. Marv says:

    Late afternoon FL SOS update shows increase of R+1759 after panhandle counties finally updated this afternoon.

  947. ReadyFirst says:

    969. Vito, yes it does. Btw, I appreciate all the work on NV, nice job!

  948. jaichind says:

    @ 972 ReadyFirst. In 2014 FL exit polls Whites were 69% of the voters while in 2016 exit polls Whites were 62%. I guess this time around it should be something like 67%.

  949. Marv says:

    Current SITREP in NV?



  950. hugh says:

    you can take whatever the % is after Sunday and add couple percent to the white vote. I think 67% will be low unless Sunday the Dems blow it out.

  951. ReadyFirst says:

    Jai, not according to the UF professor in my #947 link (for this year). He appears to have actual data, not poll results.

  952. Scooby77 says:

    Won’t get into details, but suffice it to say that the Florida Republican Party feels VERY confident about Rick Scott winning. The feeling on Desantis is that he squeaks it out, but it’s going to be very close.

  953. ReadyFIrst says:

    *data based on exits I meant. Not on Phone polls.

  954. ReadyFirst says:

    979. Scooby, that’s how I see it. The EV minority breakdown today in my 947 link sealed it for me.

  955. Scooby77 says:

    Also, not sure why people are talking about Sunday in Florida…there’s only one Souls to the Polls, and it was last Sunday. The only counties allowed to vote tomorrow and Monday are the ruby red counties that were hit by the hurricane.

  956. Marv says:

    Scooby 77,

    The Florida Ballot has the US Senate Race listed first. IMO, DeSantis will get just about what Scott gets.

  957. hugh says:

    I wish it was true, but a county can voluntarily have EV on this Sunday and all the blue ones are doing so. Some of the red ones are not.

  958. ReadyFirst says:

    Scooby, my #645
    “Early voting will end Saturday in many areas. But Bay, Broward, Calhoun, Charlotte, Duval, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson, Escambia Hillsborough, Leon, Orange, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Suwanee and Volusia are among counties that will continue to hold early voting on Sunday.

    Due to an executive order from Gov. Rick Scott in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson counties have added Monday to early voting. Election Day polling places will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.”

  959. Marv says:

    I can’t imagine that there are that many Scott/Gillum voters.

  960. ReadyFirst says:

    983. Marv, not exactly. Unfortunately, there are those who think like Paula Dockery (Rep State Senator and 2010 Gubernatorial candidate)in FL.

  961. ReadyFirst says:

    I think some Reps want payback for Putnam losing.

  962. jaichind says:

    @ ReadyFirst 978. I hear you. My point is that the poll in question is for the voting electorate and not the FL early vote. Ergo even if we know the FL early vote is around 70% White it seems more likely than not when compared to exit polls in 2014 and 2016 the overall 2018 FL voting electorate including EV overall is around something like 67% White. Agreed that the poll in question has around 65% White which does seem too low.

  963. Scooby77 says:

    Ready First,

    Interesting. My guy isn’t in one of those counties, and he thought they’d limited Sunday voting to just one this cycle. I’ll have to call him back to let him know. That’s a downer. LOL

    On Scott’s chances vs Desantis’ chances…I’m just reporting what is being said. Not sure why Scott’s chances would be much different, but that’s what the state party is saying.

  964. wheelz91 says:

    Of course, it’s been some time since many of the Republicans on that list, including Dockery, counted themselves as loyal Republicans.

  965. Scooby77 says:

    On Putnam: my guy says everyone loves him, and he’s not done in Florida.

  966. ReadyFirst says:

    990. Jai, sounds reasonable. It will be very interesting after the election to compare Hispanic support for Scott vs. Desantis.

  967. ReadyFirst says:

    Agreed wheelz.

  968. ReadyFirst says:

    Putnam is far from done, agreed Scooby. Just curious, are you managing a State Rep campaign or something?

  969. Florida Guy says:

    Florida has some of the worst GOP turncoats.

    Dockery is the second worst. Ana Navarro is the worst — she is actually an immigration lobbyist, although no one ever identifies her as such.

    Then there is Rep. David Jolly, a true bag of dirt. He knew his district would change, so he started lobbying MSNBC for a job. He lost in 2016 to another turncoat, the most well-known turncoat in the nation, Charlie Crist.

    It’s odd so many high-profile people switch parties, as Florida is in ways more solidly GOP than Indiana or Louisiana.

  970. Mr.Vito says:

    “Florida has some of the worst GOP turncoats.”


  971. Marv says:


    Putnam v Gillum for FL Gov in 2022?

  972. ReadyFirst says:

    Sorry Diamond Jim, mine!

  973. ReadyFIrst says:

    999. Marv, I would support that, but I worry Gillum would be almost undefeatable as Obama 2.0 at that point if he survived.

  974. ReadyFirst says:

    Gawd, I’ve never thought of FL from that perspective, but we do have some pretty horrible turncoats! I remember when Scarborough used to go on Hannity and Colmes, back when he was Mr. conservative. What a weasel! The sweetest moment was Crist getting taken down.

  975. Marv says:


    I expect that Scott will win by a couple of points, at least.
    I have a hard time imagining that there are that many Scott/DeSantis voters here in Fl.

  976. mnw says:

    From Belgrade, MT to Pensacola. I bet it would be hard to get a direct flight.

    I (heart) those vasty MT vistas!

    Trump sure does have a hate-on Tester, because of the VA deal.

  977. Marv says:

    1002 RF,

    Mika probably has something to do with Scarborough’s metamorphoses.

  978. ReadyFirst says:

    I think Desantis pulls it out Marv. All my fingers crossed. Three FL Supreme court seats riding on this election.

  979. Cash Cow TM says:

    “The Bahamas was really nice”
    I am glad they was nice.

  980. Cash Cow TM says:

    Come on you b@st@rds!!
    Cow put up the FIRST 2018 election prediction list in post #901 above.

    STILL the ONLY predictions!?!

    The rest of you are half stepping it….

    Quit chewing on polls and tweets and man up and make your predictions on those Senate races and on final totals in H of R.
    Let’s get this prediction party started!

  981. Cash Cow TM says:

    How come on abou every picture/video I see of the illegal alien caravan(s) heading toward the U.S.95% of the people being shown are young males–not families?

  982. DW says:

    For what its worth, two sets of Harris Interactive senate polls are out, the first set from Oct 24 – 30, and the second set from Oct 31 – Nov 2. Overall they show movement to the good guys, but for IN and MT:

    MO: was 44/46, now 46/45, Hawley +1
    IN: was 42/42, now 42/44, Donnelly +2
    NV: was 43/46, now 45/44, Heller +1
    FL: was 44/43, now 48/46, Scott +2
    AZ: was 48/43, now 49/44, McSally +5
    MT: was 40/48, now 42/50, Tester +8

  983. Cash Cow TM says:

    WVU just scored against Texas with @ 4 minutes left in game and tied it up.

    Go ‘EERS!

  984. Cash Cow TM says:

    I was never too partial to longhorns…

    Usually were a lot of bull…

  985. Cash Cow TM says:

    That has always been my beef.

  986. Cash Cow TM says:

    Is this thing on?

  987. mnw says:

    You’re not alone Cow, but I prefer to wait on predictions. Stuff often moves one way or the other at the very end– & everything close moves in the same direction.

    Here’s ONE prediction that can’t miss: if the DEMs gain a single House seat, Nancy will bat her botoxed eyelids at the cameras & proclaim, “Tonight was the beginning of the end for Donald Trump! And in 2 years… (wild applause).. we WILL see the end of Donald Trump…once & for all!” (the brie & Moet crowd goes wild!)

  988. ReadyFirst says:

    Called out by the Cow, lol. All right, I’ve seen enough EV and I’m in. Reps +4 Senate. Then, technically, House 220 Rep – 215 Dem. I say technically because, after Pelosi discovers she won’t be Speaker, her head explodes and the House then becomes 220-214.

  989. Scooby77 says:

    Ready First,

    No, not yet! 🙂

  990. mnw says:


    I’m kind of leaning toward a bifurcated, or “base election,” prediction, i.e., the red get redder & the blue get bluer.

    Both parties are “purifying their essence”– Flake; Corker; Ryan; Yoder, gone. Those 2 veteran white DEM congressmen from NY & PA- gone.

  991. Cash Cow TM says:

    2 point conversion for WV!

    WVU 42
    Texas 41

    Mountaineers defense holds!


  992. JeffP says:

    Things are looking good in CA EV which will be how most vote.

    Out of seats in jeopardy only slightly down in two. But others don’t look like toss ups anymore. Don’t have time to type out all the races EV…go check it out.

  993. mnw says:

    Congrats, Cow.


    A lot of commentators have noticed a GOP uptick out there.

  994. Phil says:

    Congrats to WV.

    My two favorite teams are A&M and whoever is playing Texas.

  995. Marv says:

    Army 17
    Air Force 14

  996. DW says:

    1020 – here are all the seats not ranked Safe by everyone, showing early vote percentage:


    CA_04: 45/32/22 Likely R
    CA_07: 37/40/23 Likely-Safe D
    CA_10: 40/40/19 Tossup
    CA_16: 35/45/20 Likely-Safe D
    CA_21: 39/42/19 Lean-Likely R
    CA_22: 49/33/18 Likely-Safe R
    CA_24: 37/40/23 Likely-Safe D
    CA_25: 41/37/22 Tossup
    CA_39: 44/33/24 Tossup
    CA_45: 43/31/25 Tossup-Lean D
    CA_48: 44/32/24 Tossup
    CA_49: 41/34/25 Lean-Likely D Flip
    CA_50: 47/29/23 Lean-Likely R

  997. Scooby77 says:


    Booooo! Air Force couldn’t make a first down there at the end, I thought they would complete the comeback.

  998. DW says:




    Rosen 46%
    Heller 49%

  999. mnw says:

    How did McSally land the gig singing our National Anthem at the ASU/Utah football game in Phoenix– on the Saturday before the election?!?

    AZ DEMs are pizzed about that, I’m guessing.

    Great campaign event– like Manchin with Jerry West & Lou Saban. Ingenious.

    As a singer, she’s a lot better than the average AF fighter pilot, btw, but… she’ll never make the world forget Celine Dion, either.

  1000. mnw says:

    1026 DW

    That is encouraging.

    And all The Wise Men say, “That’s a GOP pollster! SALT!”

  1001. Tina says:

    Yes,mtheyncould applauded her and booed Enema,

    It is Ovah.

  1002. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1024. In California a lot of Republican voters are registered non-party. So in a lot of districts the majority of the independent voters may go Republican.

    Look at CA_49. Will say it yet again, Republican Harkey could win that race.

  1003. Tina says:

    Trafalgar was very good in 2016.

    Time to catch up to n the Pensacola Rally.

  1004. Tina says:

    I am an unaffiliated voter in Ca.

    Have been since Groper 41.

  1005. Cash Cow TM says:

    “mnw says:
    November 3, 2018 at 7:33 pm

    I’m kind of leaning toward a bifurcated, or “base election,” prediction, i.e., the red get redder & the blue get bluer.”

    Cow has recently ruminated about the same thing…
    Not only state by state, but also in specific House Districts as well.

    In 2014 off year, the 3 WV House CDs were each won by Republicans in 2014:

    –CD1 McKinley over Gainer (92K to 52K)
    –CD2 Mooney over Casey (72.5K to 67K + 16K other)
    –CD3 Jenkins over Rahall 77.7K to 62.7

    In 2016:
    –CD1 McKinley reelected (163K to 75K)
    –CD2 Mooney reelected 140K to 101K)
    –CD3 Jenkins reelected 140K to 50K + 16K other)
    In 2018, WV CD3 is an open seat so that will end up R winning 8-10 points, but McKinley in CD 1 and Mooney in CD 2 should win by 12 to 15 (or more)

  1006. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV lellgislature
    House of Delegates currently at

    Ds are making noise that they have a shot of regaining majority in the House.

    Don’t see that happening.

    BEST I see is for Ds is 45 seats in House in a best case scenario.

    Probably when dust settles on election day, Ds gain enough seats to be at @ 40 or 41 seats.

    Ds concede the WV Senate will remain in R control.

  1007. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    A lot of my Democrat friends are very motivated this election, walking precincts & calling voters.
    But I live a heavily Democratic Party area. All my state and congressional representatives are Democrats. They will help get a higher turn-out for Democratic candidates who will win anyways.

  1008. ReadyFirst says:

    Yes! Army beat Air Force!

  1009. Scooby77 says:

    ReadyFirst, you’re dead to me.

  1010. JeffP says:

    Okay…Hugh Hewitt is now retweeting Trump rally long line videos. LOL

  1011. Cash Cow TM says:

    So this Kavanaugh accuser has also recanted and said she made it up–because she was an angry leftist.



  1012. ReadyFirst says:

    Lol Scooby. Gotta root for my green family!

  1013. Scooby77 says:

    It’s all good brother. Same reason I’m standing up for my fellow brothers and sisters in blue…

    Like Martha McSally!

  1014. GPO says:

    ReadyFirst says:

    November 3, 2018 at 6:40 pm

    I think Desantis pulls it out Marv. All my fingers crossed. Three FL Supreme court seats riding on this election

    I thought I read Scott will be able to appoint them before he leaves office.

  1015. mnw says:

    LS: “GOP bounces back to +58000 lead in FL”

  1016. Scooby77 says:

    Tennessee senate: anyone else see a tweet about Republicans worried about the campaign internals with Blackburn?

    I’d kinda thought we had that one close to put away.

  1017. Hugh says:

    1047. Ev in tn 70% over 50 and 86% white. Any idiot can tweet

  1018. Tina says:

    “Harvard/Harris Poll finds that majority of American women & men say Democrats were not genuinely concerned w/the accusations of sexual assault made by Christine Blasey Ford, but instead were using the allegations & the accuser to score political points.”…
    View summary ·

  1019. Florida Guy says:

    “Trafalgar was very good in 2016.”

    They may have been the best. They polled the states, and asked voters their preference.

    They then asked about how the neighbor would vote, to get an idea of the “shy Tory.”

    Traf then calculated the likely vote that way. He called it right in Penn., Ohio and Florida.

    That was ballgame.

  1020. RB says:

    TN—CNN and Fox went in there and found Blackburn up…Trump probably will boost turnout and enthusiasm…hard to see this swinging away…put it this way if the GOP looses TN they probably lost 45+ in the house and the Senate as well

  1021. mnw says:


    Hey, Hugh!

    What makes you think us old white rednecks aren’t pulling the plug on Trump, & joining up with Pelosi, huh?

    Aren’t you jumping to conclusions?

  1022. Tina says:

    I think she wins bigly in Tn.

    I think you may be concerned with the eh targoz poll showing it dead even.

    Nobody is buying that poll.

  1023. Tina says:

    I can see this

    Blackburn plus 10

    Mcsally plus 6

    Heller plus 2.

  1024. mnw says:

    “Barbed wire used properly can be a beautiful sight!”

    Indeed. STRING IT!

  1025. Tina says:

    Seems like Fl Scott is pulling away from Fugly.

  1026. Tina says:


    “This is not a game. We do not do games. String up that barbed wire.”

    I would have them build the wall too, while they are down there,

  1027. Tina says:

    At least we sent the military to our southern border and not to a sheot hole country a la Mute 43.

    And, if they throw rocks, rocks are deadly. Border guards have been killed by rock throwers.

  1028. Scooby77 says:


    “GOP internals on #TNSen have not been great for Marsha Blackburn lately, I am told”

    Just passing it along, not sure I believe it. He works for the Washington Post.

  1029. Skippy says:

    Karin Housley

    “On the ground here there is a lot of excitement, more so than in 2016. Those people who are quiet Republicans that voted Republican and didn’t tell anybody are now coming out and telling people,” Housley said. “We didn’t have crowds like this in 2016. People were even afraid to say they were Republican.”

    Housley proclaimed that she has gained the momentum away from Smith and predicted a win.

    “I think I’m going to win by two points,”

  1030. Tina says:

    So, somebody from her campaign leaked them to the wp reporter?


  1031. mnw says:

    Bobby Bowden on stage with Trump in Pensacola. Cool. Kudos to Trump’s event planners. Very nice. Of a piece with Bobby Knight in Indianapolis.

  1032. Tina says:

    The president is still campaigning on Monday:

    Richard Baris Richard Baris
    How’s this for narrative flippers? President Trump will lead a One Vote to Victory Telephone Town Hall on Monday. He’s drawing from a pool of swing-district and swing-state voters, many Obama-Trump voters, to talk to them about why he needs them to vote Republican. Just wow.
    View details ·

  1033. mnw says:

    I suspect his example of energy & dedication may be just as energizing as what he actually says…

    although… LS says “immigration” is moving’ on up!

  1034. mnw says:

    1064 sb “movin’ on up”

  1035. Cash Cow TM says:

    “He’s drawing from a pool of swing-district and swing-state voters,…”
    It is always a great concern to me the uncertainty of how the swingers will vote.

    Particularly the women swingers.

    Those people with that specific sexual proclivity are hard to pole…I mean POLL.

    Easy to pole, hard to POLL!

  1036. Scooby77 says:

    Either things are moving, or this is a well-coordinated media psy-op campaign:


    “Hearing from more Texas Republicans tonight that they think @tedcruz is under water. It is Saturday before the election #TXSen #txlege”

  1037. Hugh says:

    I hope the Dems spend big in TN. I’m sure blackburns team is confiding with their friends at the washington Post.

  1038. sane_voter says:

    Regarding Blackburn, What does “internals do not look that great” mean? Note he didn’t say she was behind.
    Sounds like wishful thinking.

  1039. sane_voter says:

    “Hearing from more Texas Republicans tonight that they think @tedcruz is under water. It is Saturday before the election #TXSen #txlege”

    That leak sounds like something Ted Kennedy would say.

  1040. Hugh says:

    People can tell you that I am perhaps the most polite regular contributor to this site. Scooby go somewhere else you’re a fool.

  1041. mnw says:


    But… you ARE!

  1042. Scooby77 says:



    I’m not believing it, as I said. Just find it interesting that the media is this much in the tank for this election, that they’re sewing these types of ideas the Saturday night before the election.

  1043. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow has posted her predictions…

    …and also burned a couch to celebrate the WVU football team victory…

    …and did a little research on the thriving and burgeoning international “Birth Tourism” industry that brings very pregnant women from other countries to U.S. on “travel visas” with the sole and expressed purpose to have their babies born on U.S> soil…(AT LEAST 36,000 per year…not counting the 300,000 to 400,000 annual births to illegal aliens who come to the U.S.)

    …and NOW I am bored silly.
    Anyone got any missing jet airliners or other things for me to search for?

    Or anything else?

    –an honest pollster?
    –a conservative Democrat?
    –a 100% truthful campaign mailer among the dozens we are deluged with…?
    –an ACTUAL illegal FAMILY among the various multitide of caravans of illegal aliens headed to the U.S.?

  1044. VictrC says:

    If Cruz loses in Texas, weve lost TN, AZ, NV and heck…maybe even ND for a -4 and a Senate with 53 Dems…and wev’e lost 45 seats in the House at a minimum.

  1045. Hugh says:

    Scooby then I apologize

  1046. JeffP says:

    Braddock is a partisan hack. He is making up crap. And retweeting it when progressive group in Illinois retweeted it. He is trying to spread fake news all by his lonely self.

  1047. mnw says:


    American citizenship… like the little plastic trinket in a box of Cracker Jacks.

  1048. JeffP says:

    Texas R EV vote is cranking in Texas.

  1049. Phil says:

    Come on Scooby. Give us a break. Just stop it.

  1050. mnw says:

    I miss the old days here when we’d get drunk and talk about porn stars & rock music.

  1051. Skippy says:

    It’s just a bunch of Progressives wanting to believe.

    Not coordinated..but they just want to believe for a few more hours.

    Beto is going down.

  1052. Phil says:

    Instead, we are getting drunk and talking about a blue wave in Tennessee and Texas.

  1053. Tina says:

    So, Blackburn and Cruz in twubble. Also, let’s include Mcsalley..

    Ima, drinking limoncello and calling it a night.

  1054. Scooby77 says:

    I passed along two tweets, Phil. Calm down. My point is the media is out in force, full on psy op.

    Gird your loins.

  1055. Phil says:

    Look, I can believe McSally could lose. We don’t know. Polls all over the place there….but put down the bong on Texas and Tennessee.

  1056. Hugh says:

    Mnw. I’m having a Manhattan after ND gamewatch at a bar in Lauderdale. It’s nuts posting bs tweets by liberal nobodies. Would rather discuss porn

  1057. Tina says:

    Here, enjoy this 400 plus page report from Grassley on the Kavanaugh hoax.

    Prepare for further criminal referrals.

  1058. Hugh says:

    Phil come on. Mcsally will win. Heller I could understand some concern.

  1059. Phil says:

    I’m game on the porn.

  1060. Tina says:

    Maybe it’s “republican” or whatever he is, Joe Scarfarce passing this information from “his republican sources.”

  1061. Phil says:

    Probably, Tina. Just keep seeing contradictory polls.

  1062. BayernFan says:

    Anyone seen tanner Mayes recent stuff? Weird.

  1063. Cash Cow TM says:

    I thought you typed “gird your LOONS”.

    On election night, the LOONS will have to gird their loins.

    Which reminds me…!

    Be sure to do something with your clocks tonight!

    CLOCKS….I said..CLOCKS.

    Last year Walt tried to sneak in and turn my clock back and hour, but I got between him and my clock and clock blocked him.

    As for me, I will still be in the milking stall in 7 hours…regardless of which direction you turn your clocks…

  1064. ReadyFirst says:

    Last week a woman dressed up at a Halloween Costume contest we went to as Mrs Potato Head. She wore a huge hat so you couldn’t see her face and painted her boobs as her eyes…. I didn’t see how the rest of her was painted.

  1065. Tina says:

    Speaking of loons….

    Where are the Jebots?

  1066. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Utah pollster Dan Jones died at age 84. He was well respected as a pollster; starting his polling firm in 1980. He also was a professor at the University of Utah for over 50 years.

    “Today we mourn the passing of the most trusted man in Utah politics and our state’s preeminent pollster, Dr. Dan Jones. Dan inspired generations of students to care about politics and get excited about voting and civic engagement. He will be deeply missed.”

  1067. ReadyFirst says:

    1096. No dissension left to be sown here so they’re off to greener pastures for now.

  1068. ReadyFirst says:

    Cow to ask where the greener pastures are in 5, 4, 3, 2…..

  1069. Bitterlaw says:

    I saw some great Hooters tonight.

  1070. sane_voter says:


  1071. Cash Cow TM says:

    Someone say something about GREENER PASTURES?!?

    Saw on Facebook tow things that need shared here.

    1. they have trucks, cranes and other big equipment over in England at Stonehenge moving all the big rocks one hour back.

    2. Everyone in the U.S. near where the illegal alien caravans are heading needs to put out lots of Canadian flags and spell ‘color’ as ‘colour’. The illegal caravans will think they went too far north and turn around to head south.

  1072. mnw says:

    Pretty fair crowd in Pensacola 2nite.

    Compares with AC/DC live in Buenos Aires, & KISS live Under the Brooklyn Bridge.

    The big rock bands had pyrotechnics, though. That;’s about the only difference. Oh, & instead of plastic devil horns? … MAGA hats.

  1073. ReadyFirst says:

    1100. Bitter. I saw them play at a club in Frankfurt many years ago. Awesome small venue concert.

  1074. Skippy says:

    Did the Democrats in Forida cut into the Republican early vote lead by at least 30,000 yesterday?

    We will find out shortly.

    But Democrats need a number of +30,000 – +35,000 yesterday to make up for the last 2 disappointing days.

  1075. Bitterlaw says:

    Ready – They played for 2 1/2 hours. They started in Philadelphia so they have a big following here. They also play a lot of shows in Germany. Still rocking since 1980.

  1076. Skippy says:

    Florida 11/04 update:

    Currently Republicans +28,036.

    Democrats did gain some 30,600 votes from yesterday.

    Florida 11/06, 2016

    Democrats were up +32,626.

  1077. hugh says:

    Reps still up by about 29K with some red counties still out

  1078. hugh says:

    its fascinating au ng predicted they would pick up net 27K today. After the remaining red counties come in it should be just about 27K.

  1079. Skippy says:


    It’s because 27,000 is the number Democrats gained in 2016 from Saturday to Sunday before the election.

  1080. phoenixrisen says:

    So the GOP will have about a 30-35K EV lead in Florida heading into election day in Florida with EV ending yesterday. I can definitely live with that. GOP base is obviously enthusiastic to vote nationwide. All comes down to the indies.

  1081. hugh says:

    1112. No, all the large blue counties vote tomorrow. a good number of red counties do not. we will come out of tomorrow down maybe 30K. we will then pick up votes on Monday from the panhandle counties that will still be open.

  1082. Hugh says:

    we will be well ahead of where we were in FL in 16

  1083. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #’s 1108-1112
    Chill out fellahs. The Repblicans should gain another net 10,000 votes from yesterday’s Florida balloting when the following Red Counties report later today:
    Baker, Citrus, Escambia, Gilcrest, Hernando, Manatee, Martin, Sumter and Suwaanee.
    These are 2:1 Republican Counties and some are relatively vote-rich ie Martin.
    All the major and modest Dem. Counties have been accounted for.

  1084. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks for the clarification Hugh. I wasn’t aware it was up to the county supervisors’ discretion regarding deadlines. Good to know

  1085. Skippy says:


    This was explained to you yesterday. Democrats beast on the last weekend of early voting in Fl. Democrats will gained another 30,000-50,000 tomorrow.

    But yes, overall Democrats will be behind their +96,000 going into Election Day on 2016. But Dems will be ahead in early voting.

  1086. DW says:


    ABC/Washington Compost generic ballot poll:

    D+8 44/52

    Their prior was D+13, 42/55

  1087. Skippy says:

    Sheeple Jr,

    I’m not sure who you are telling to chill out.

    No one is panicking over these numbers. Democrats still lagging behind..and have been since the start.

  1088. phoenixrisen says:

    This isn’t good for Democrats. The turnout models in the battle ground states look to be even to D+2 for the Democrats depending on the state. These pollsters running with models of D+5 are going to have egg on their faces again. They would need to win independents by a substantial margin. The GOP is looking awfully good here.

  1089. Redmen4ever says:

    WP poll: shifting from entertainment to reputation

  1090. phoenixrisen says:

    Skippy, I was looking at a few sites regarding Florida EV deadlines. I misunderstood the variances. Still feeling really good how things are looking though. DW, what was the partisan ID of that latest Washington Post generic? Will be interesting to see Ras’ numbers today

  1091. Todd McCain says:

    I would be happy going into election day in Florida just even.

  1092. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #1119- Skippy
    I meant it as a preemptive chill-out after reading the posts from late yesterday regarding TN and TX after two anecdotal posts were posted.

    Skippy–how do you see MT, IN, MO AZ and NV going?

  1093. MichiganGuy says:

    #1118 The ABC/WashingtonPost Poll has some good news for Republicans.
    Group-level vote preferences matter as well as turnout, and here, as noted, the GOP has seen some gains. The party’s candidates led by 27 points among non-college white men last month; it’s 39 points now. Surprisingly, they had only 9- and 10-point leads among rural residents in August and October, while it’s 33 points today. And the party’s improved since last month among white Protestants, evangelical and non-evangelical alike.

    There’s also a change among women; they went from 25- and 22-point Democratic margins in the last two ABC/Post polls to 14 points now.
    Another notable change comes among independent women, who now divide about evenly among Democratic and Republican House candidates, 43-41 percent, after a 33-point Democratic preference in October. This reflects more conservatives and whites, and fewer liberals and nonwhites, in the ranks of independent women.

  1094. phoenixrisen says:


    AZ Senate

    Sinema 50
    McSally 47


  1095. hugh says:

    I would be thrilled going into Election Day down 30K in FL. it is frustrating that AZ is not updating their site for absentee voting. but we will win az by at least 5 probably more

  1096. phoenixrisen says:

    Puzzling crosstabs on the Arizona Senate poll. 55-45 fema to male ratio, Trump approval at 50%? Hmmmm

  1097. Hugh says:

    The battle in az ended with the ev.

  1098. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #1128- Phoenix
    Add another peculiarity in the Trafalga AZ poll:
    McSally(R) wins Women and Sinema(D) Men

  1099. phoenixrisen says:

    MG, if it is a wash with the indies, the GOP probably holds the House if the Post generic verifies. Also, partisan ID is D+7 on registered voters and D+6 on likely voters. Not happening.

  1100. MichiganGuy says:

    phoenixrisen, yep I have the House as a tossup right now. Dems probably gain 20 seats.

  1101. phoenixrisen says:

    Sheep, good catch. It’s about par for the course. The polling this mid-term has been all over the place. Sinema up witg men and McSally up among women? Also in the Post generic the GOP is crushing it among non-college whites and rural voters. That will play huge once again in the battleground states and particularly the Midwest

  1102. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    This Siena Poll of NYS may be good news for the GOP in some of the Congressional races:–Molinaro-Tightens-as-Republicans–Come-Home-.html?soid=1121049327817&aid=cLk2IPlPr_Y

    Cuom’s lead has shrunk dramatically, especially among Republicans and Indies. He still has substantial advantage.

  1103. phoenixrisen says:

    All things aside, this latest polling from the Post and Siena is showing some serious GOP mementum breaking. If you’re in the DNC, you cannot be happy this morning.

  1104. Tina says:

    au ng
    1/ FL EV update 7:21 am 11/4 — As expected, Ds upped their game toward the end of this EV. Ds netted about 30.5k Sat. But, 14 counties yet to report, none of which are big blue counties and majority are red. So, Rs will improve on this by 4pm update.

    Rs were about +28k

  1105. Tina says:

    Ds will have about a 30k E ev lead by Tuesday, per @athein1.

  1106. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    I do not think this Trafalgar Group poll of the Nevada Senate and Governor’s races has yet been posted. The good news is that Laxalt for Governor and Heller for the Senate, both Republicans, are each ahead by 3 pts.

  1107. JeffP says:

    Any state that has a strong Trump voter block is worth betting on in the Senate.

  1108. phoenixrisen says:

    Tina, May be looking at a wash to Dems up 20K max in Florida come election day. That will not be enough for them

  1109. Tina says:

    Right, they were up 94k in 2016 and Her Thighness lost by 113k.

  1110. DW says:

    1135 – the Siena polling of house races has not been favorable to the GOP this weekend. Some pretty rough numbers. I am not inclined to believe Siena, but it is funny how Silverhack cherry picks polls. In seats where Siena favored the GOP, he ignores and looks to other polls. In WA_08, he looks to the unfinished Siena poll and ignores the Elway poll that was R+10

  1111. Tina says:

    And today all blue counties in Fl open, and no red.

    Be prepared for the Ds surging in Fl and concerns here by the trolls.

  1112. phoenixrisen says:

    DW, I am alluding to the Siena poll regarding the NY gov race. Inwouldn’t put much stock in those online Siena tracking polls.

  1113. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #1143- Tina
    I believe that ALL Florida Counties are available for in-person balloting today.

  1114. Tina says:

    Sheeple, yes, but only a few red counties (small) are participating. It is mainly big blue counties.

  1115. mnw says:

    Did Trafalgar break out “already voted” in their NV & AZ polls?

  1116. hugh says:

    tina is right. lee and collier the two big ones are closed.

  1117. Redmen4ever says:

    NBC has cleaned up its last pre-election poll. All the prior ones were for entertainment. This one is so researchers can say they weren’t biased.

  1118. phoenixrisen says:

    Final Ras generic is tomorrow

  1119. JeffP says:

    Dennis Miller

    The fact that this Election might even be close shows how far gone the country is. #DennisMillerOption


  1120. mnw says:

    1148 mnw

    The answer is NO.

  1121. Chicon says:

    Mnw talking to himself…politics will do that.

  1122. Scooby77 says:


    That’s strange, because I keep dinging 538 on Twitter that they aren’t assessing the EV appropriately, not enough weighting to the EV. They replied that they DO count EV by including them in the Likely Voter portion as “super” likely voters. They also got quite upset that I would deign to question their methodology.

  1123. mnw says:


    Indeed. I have an unhealthy level of interest in this. I haven’t been to a singe BLUZ game this year, because…suck. Good to see Fabbri back on the ice after 2 yrs, but I suspect his career is near the end anyway. Hope I’m wrong, of course.

    Trump’s last 5 pre-election rallies:


    1) Macon, GA; 2) Chattanooga, TN; 3) Cleveland, OH;


    4) Ft. Wayne, IN; 5) Cape Girardeau, MO.

    What to make of that? Well, those are states where most people have NOT already voted, I believe. I know MO is one of those.

    The OH rally is the hardest to figure out.

  1124. hugh says:

    my confidence is building 3 net senate seats and plus or minus 5 on keeping the house. looks like nv will not do a final update to their EV.

  1125. mnw says:

    Scooby 77

    If Trafalgar broke out the EV, they didn’t mention at all in the press releases announcing their poll results for NV or AZ. I scrolled all through the AX poll. Will women voter turnout in AZ REALLY exceed male turnout by 10%, I wonder?

    I know they outlive us, but… 10%?

  1126. mnw says:


    Kemp probably should’ve resigned as SOS after he won the nomination. I didn’t think Abrams would be as formidable a candidate as she has proven to be.

  1127. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    With Martin, Polk and Escambria reporting yesterdy’s results, the GOP picks up a near additional 1,240 Florida votes.
    Suwanee,Sumter,Citrus,Baker,Manatee and Hernando are still out from yesterday’s count.

  1128. Mr.Vito says:

    Okay, so I ran a bunch of numbers on the FL EV through this morning… Turnout is 73% of 2016 EV.

    If you apply this reduction statewide, you would expect the GOP to gain 26000 early voters over Ds

    If you use individual county turnout, you would expect the GOP to gain 76000 early voters over Ds

    The actual gain has been 124000, so the GOP has exceeded that with individual R over D turnout.

    Additionally, there has been a drop of 47000 independents over what would be expected by drop in turnout alone.

  1129. Tina says:

    Special voting instructions given to the Jebots:

  1130. Phil says:

    My expectations are widely ranging on the senate, Hugh. We could net 3 or we could be swept in Nevada, Arizona, Mo, Indiana, and Fla. 538 has us up in only Nevada and that is by less than half a point.

    Polls all over the place. Never seen so many contradictory polls and I’ve been following this stuff for years.

  1131. Phil says:

    If we get one of two from Nevada and Arizona and then win one from Fla, Mo, and Indiana that will net us one seat and move us to 52 in the senate. Not great, but certainly respectable and we could live with it. Guess we would have to.

  1132. Brandon says:

    My current thoughts on the senate pickups(ask me again on Tuesday):


    North Dakota

    McCaskill holds on. Tester holds on. Nelson holds on. Blackburn wins TN. Cruz wins TX.

  1133. John says:

    …”The Dems could retake the House or NOT”…
    Gotta love ol’ Nate Nickel. The CYA is coming fast and hard.

  1134. hugh says:

    Hi Brandon. I just see no path for sinema to win in AZ since so much of the vote is in and the reps crushed it.

  1135. Mr.Vito says:

    These are the counties where the GOP lost votes compared to expectations, followed by the percent of total vote (to get an idea of its magnitude).

    Alachua 4.0%
    Broward 1.4%
    Clay 1.7%
    Duval 2.3%
    Nassau 0.03%
    Orange 1.2%
    Sarasota 0.8%
    Seminole 1.4%
    StJohns 3.1%

    The GOP is having issues in Jax area.

  1136. Brandon says:

    I just think the national environment may pull down McSally just enough for Sinema to squeak by. And not an attack or anything, but just because someone is registered Republican, doesn’t mean they voted Republican.

  1137. mnw says:

    Be sure to hit the button for the corr-eee trollblog! That way, you’ll encourage him to visit here even more often! And he & Vichey can drop their little rabbit tu*ds all over EVERY thread! EVERY day!

  1138. mnw says:


    Schweikart foresees a GOP shift of +84000, compared to 2016, at the end of EV.

    Trump carried FL by 113000.

  1139. hugh says:

    When the remaining votes come in for yesterday we should be up about 30K.

    Mr. Vito. I think part of the problem in broward was that they had almost no early voting places in the burbs. My friends told me the lines were too long and they were waiting for Election Day when they had many more voting places. In Westin they had one location. I am not sure how that compared with the general election. If there were the same number of places then the comparison above is relevant.

  1140. Tina says:

    WATCH: Chuck asks Cornell Belcher what we might be missing about the midterms. “Our polling numbers are not going to be accurate.”@CornellBelcher: “We don’t know what the electorate’s going to be. I don’t trust any of the horserace numbers right now, and I’m a pollster.”

  1141. Phil says:

    What is the latest from Schweikart on Arizona?

  1142. Scooby77 says:

    John (1168),

    Man, ol’ Nate Silver needs to do something with that hair. Opened your link.

  1143. Tina says:

    Doubtful that an “r” ev for enema,

    I guess it is possible.

    But not likely.

  1144. hugh says:

    If you are right that a progressive nut like sinema beats a female fighter pilot in AZ then you can be damn sure that Donnelly will win as will Rosen and we will lose 1 net seat.

  1145. Tina says:

    Nothing new on az.

    I think he indicated that the margin of 117000 is too much for enema.

  1146. Phil says:

    Yeah, Arizona is baffling to me.

  1147. Scooby77 says:

    Phil, that’s no joke. I don’t even see how it’s within the Margin of Error in Arizona. She was caught on tape saying the craziest, anti-American (and anti-Arizonan) things, yet it’s basically a coin flip?

  1148. Phil says:

    I expected NBC to release some new polls on MTP. Didn’t watch it, but none have been mentioned. Maybe they nave some coming out on election eve.

  1149. Brandon says:

    Average voters don’t put as much stock into political ideology as we do. They just might see a “D” vote as a vote against Trump.

    I’m not saying Sinema is a lock to win, but gun to my head, that’s my call as of 11:00 on Sunday morning.

  1150. hugh says:

    it looks like there will be nothing new on AZ because the stopped updating their site. they have not even posted the 11/2 results other than 3000 votes. As of 11/1 Mcsally was up 116000 with probably about 65% of the vote already in. AZ is ovah.

  1151. hugh says:

    Brandon then square that with braun winning in Indiana

  1152. Brandon says:

    Indiana is a little further to the right than Arizona is at this point, in my opinion. Young outperformed the polls there by quite a bit in 2016.

  1153. Tina says:

    in AZ, the early voting ended on Friday, 11/2.

  1154. Mr.Vito says:

    Gallup RVs only showed 2% of Rs sending message in opposition to Trump, and 4% of Ds sending message in support if Trump.

    Would need to be Independents…

  1155. JeffP says:

    I agree with Belcher…the early vote favoring the GOP is messing with pollsters heads. Trump rally in OH is interesting must be closer than we think or polls show. Apparently EV is looking good in Ohio too in R counties.

  1156. RB says:

    So the number I’m waiting ching in FL is the percentage difference between 2016 and 2018. In 2016 the Dems won EV by about 1.5 points…Right now the GOP leads by 2.1 percentage points if i am reading the grids correctly…that will probably inch up today and than go way down tomorrow. I am not sure the dems can net 3.6 percentage points today to draw even with thier 2016 performance but we shall see..hey Clark went crazy on the last day so we’ll see

  1157. hugh says:

    true but they did not update for 11/2 probably at least another 100K votes

  1158. jaichind says:

    The last genetic congreasional poll for abc nbc economist and harris all show an shift toward gop relative to the same pollster a week or two ago. Any last min shifts should be toward gop even if slightly.

  1159. hugh says:

    I guess your guess is your guess, but Donnelly is running as a conservative democrat he also is an incumbent. He is a loyal democrat, but he is not a left wing loon. His opponent is uninspiring. I do think braun wins, but not by the margin Mcsally wins by.

  1160. Brandon says:

    Hey Hugh, I would love to be wrong about it, trust me. Expanding in the Senate is extremely important this year, especially with the House in peril. Need a couple of seat margin for the 2020 map.

  1161. mnw says:

    1191 RB

    Schweikart believes he has that info. See 1173 above.

    1193 jai

    Should be interesting to see what RAS has for GCB tomorrow. The last two weeks were: 1) even; & 2) D+3.

  1162. Scooby77 says:

    Unfortunately, Renacci is toast. The Ohio governor’s race is close, however. And there are a couple House seats close, maybe that’s why he’s visiting Ohio.

  1163. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Replying to @Peoples_Pundit
    If come Election Day indie women BREAK for the GOP as certain polling now seems to indicate, then understand this… The Democrats will not take the House. EV “analysis” has really stretched my tolerance for bias this year. 2014? You know better than that ladies and gentlemen.
    View conversation ·

    Maybe the caravan and the invaders is influencing their votes or status quo due to robust economy?

  1164. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Replying to @Peoples_Pundit
    We will watch the indy margins because we expect juiced turnout on both sides. But there is no doubt GOP EV shocked us. It exceeded Democrats in intensity in many of these contests. Democrats will have to win this thing with indies. And close to a margin we saw in 2006.
    View conversation ·

    In 2006, disastrous bush 2nd term, economy cracking, and Iraq.

  1165. mnw says:


    Those are interesting tweets, but I fer sher wood like 2 c that “certain polling now seems to indicate” which he references!

  1166. RB says:

    So WAPO comes in at D+8 for generic and NBC comes in at D+7…keeping in mind that the national polls tend to be more accurate than state polling and certainly than congressional level polling…

    If these are true than that is indicative of a narrow Dem win in the house…but usually in midterms these tend to be off 2-3 points in the same direction..

    A D + 4-5 would translate to a narrow GOP hold of the house

    A D + 10-11 would be the big blue wave

    Fox will probably have one last national poll coming out as well

    Trump JA in WAPO 44…NBC 46

  1167. Tina says:

    Mnw, concur, I think he is doing some poling in the field.

    He did not elaborate though, other than the intuition statement that Indy women may be breaking to the GOP.

  1168. Tina says:

    Barris will tell us the bad and ugly too. He does not sugar coat.

    If Indy women are breaking GOP, this could be due to the caravan invaders and the trump ad that cn and n banned, clai I g it was “racist.”

  1169. jaichind says:

    Find it hard to believe indy women breaks for gop. Perhaps he means indy white women break for gop.

  1170. mnw says:


    I went to his site to checkout out too. Thx.

    I suffer from ED–Election Day angst.

  1171. RB says:

    Both WAPO and NBC trended to the GOP since last poll a few weeks ago by 4 & 2 points respectively

  1172. Tina says:

    Mnw, Schweikart often mentions him.

  1173. Albert Hodges says:

    If Arizonans would vote for Sinema, then I agree with those who have opined that the USA is too far gone to be saved.

    I also am telling you that it will NOT happen, that those pundits who are pushing such a scenario are doing it to build a DEM narrative in a reddish-purple state that is an open seat, and those that post that drivel here are just soft trolling you guys under the seemingly “what did I do? I am just pointing out the polls that the professionals have released” crappola that anyone with a brain would recognize for what it is.

  1174. Tina says:

    Voting Alert:

    Comedy has tweeted to vote Drat.

  1175. Tina says:

    When will the Hawaii judge or the 9th Circuit Court stop the military from installing barbed wire along the border?

  1176. mnw says:

    1211 Red

    Of course! Homelessness rediscovery! Took them a pretty long time– we’ve had a GOP Prez for 2 yrs almost.

    As u know, the homelessness crisis first emerged in 2000 & lasted until 2008, when it suddenly disappeared completely for 8 years, only to re-emerge in Nov. 2016.

  1177. Mr.Vito says:

    The GOP of course is overperforming in the other 58 counties I didn’t list in 1170

    Hurricane Stricken…
    Bay: 7.6%
    Leon: virtual tie

    Lee: 2.0%
    Charlotte: 3.2%
    Collier 3.2%

    Marion 3.2%
    Citrus: 4.3%
    Putnam: 8.9%

    MiamiDade: 2.7%

    Volusia: 2.2%
    Flagler: 1.8%
    St.Lucie: 1.7%

    Polk: 4.1%
    Sumter: 2.0%
    Lake: 1.8%
    Pasco: 1.3%
    Osceola: 3.4%

    Escambia: 2.4%
    Okaloosa: 1.0%
    SantaRosa: 1.0%

    Brevard: virtual tie

    Rural… big numbers 5-20%

  1178. jason says:

    My gut feeling, like Brandon ask me again Tuesday.

    McSally wins
    Hawley wins
    Scott wins
    Tester wins
    Braun wins
    Cruz wins
    Blackburn wins

    Not sure about Heller.

  1179. Marv says:

    The early am FL SOS data dump of EV/VBM was R+28,036.
    The latest data dump released at 10:08 am increased the lead by 1237. Total is FL total is now R+29,273.

  1180. Scooby77 says:

    Jason, I’d take that.

  1181. RB says:

    The Rural vote is interesting cause the same pattern emerged in NV…These areas tend not to be chalk full of college educated Republucans running out to vote D

    Wonder if the pollsters are picking up on this

    Since these things do not usually happen in a vaccum i have to think this is good news to Braun and Hawley…we’ll see

  1182. Mr.Vito says:

    Some counties with a significant loss of independents relative to county turnout are in…

    Blue Tampa…
    Hillsborough: 1.5%

    Blue Orlando…
    Seminole: 2.1%
    Orange: 2.3%
    Osceola: 2.1%

    Blue SEFL…
    Broward: 2.4%
    Palm Beach: 1.0%
    MiamiDade: 2.8%
    Monroe: 1.6%

    Red Panhandle… about 1%-1.5%

  1183. mnw says:

    I’d like to see that witch who beat Joe Heck lose in 2022.

    Whenever I read something along the lines of, “She would be the first one-legged Chinese Lesbian to serve…”? I break out in hives.

    They want tribal politics? Let’s have some, then.

  1184. Marv says:

    #1215 Jason,

    Your gut is informed by the same EV/VBM data that my gut is.
    I agree with your predictions, although I can see a Heller win by <1%.

    DeSantis will likely win by about the same margin as Scott.
    GOP wins FL-CD’s 26 & 27. GOP holds US House, very narrowly.

  1185. Wes says:

    Scott May win, Marv, but do you really think DeSantis wins? He’s bungled the campaign literally since winning the nomination. It’s a shame as this is a pivotal race, and Gillum is far to the left of the state.

  1186. Wes says:

    You heard it here first: Cortez Masto loses in 2022 ONLY if Trump loses in 2020.

  1187. phoenixrisen says:

    Current take:

    Who knows regarding the House.


    GOP holds AZ and TN, NV up in the air though cautiously optimistic.

    GOP gains ND, FL, IN, and MO.

    MT is a toss-up.

    GOP long shots are MN (Housely), MI (James) and NJ (Hugin)

    Based on what I have read, Jim Renacci hasn’t really worked hard not campaigned well down in Ohio. I would put this in long shot territory as well, arguably now Safe Dem

  1188. mnw says:

    Hey, Wes!

    RCP just moved AZ-01 from DEM hold to tossup!

    I told ya she was the berries! (Who’s your daddy?)

    Good omen for McSally, too.

    And go Tark!

  1189. Marv says:


    I agree with your criticism of DeSantis’s campaign and that Gillum is far to the left of the state. Scott’s name is at the top of the FL ballot. I just don’t think that there are enough Scott/Gillum voters among Republicans and Independents to swing the election to Gillum.

    The GOP EV/VBM performance so far has been quite impressive. I think we should put a lot of weight in those numbers when making a prediction about FL final results.

  1190. Tina says:

    Mnw, Rush and Hannity to appear at trump rally in cape Gireadeau.

  1191. jaichind says:

    CBS projects Dem wins 225 seats in House for a net gain of 30. It does say margin of error means GOP could hold House.

  1192. mnw says:

    1227 Tina

    Cool! Thx. Did not know that.

    Rush is a hometown hero in Cape. I’d been wondering if he was going to get directly involved in MO, ever since Trump first mentioned having a rally in Cape.

  1193. Redmen4ever says:

    Canada collusion!

    What’s a polling firm from British Columbia taking surveys of our country?

    Could be the caravan was just a diversion. The real attack will be from the north!

    Trudeau seeks to avenge the Rape of 1812!

  1194. Phil says:

    My latest prediction from Texas – Cruz wins by 4 or so – 3 if Beto has a REALLY good night. Cruz by 5 or 6 if he has a good night.

    Tx House seats. Hurd wins in the 23rd by a decent margin. Sessions barely hangs on in the 32nd. Culberson loses in Tx 7th. Democrats have thrown five million in on Lizzie Fletcher’s campaign and it’s wall to wall advertising 24/7 and it’s been that way for ten weeks now. You seldom see a Culberson ad. Last night during the LSU-Bama game I counted 12 Fletcher ads hammering Culberson – and those ads weren’t cheap. It’s like he is just resigned to losing. Never even put up a fight. I’ve never seen anything like it in a swing district. Anyway, that seat is gone and it didn’t have to be that way.

  1195. Marv says:

    Hey Tina,

    Have you visited HI lately?

    Also, what’s your estimation of GOP net results in CA US House races?

  1196. mnw says:

    RRH: “We put the BLUE in the red!”

  1197. Mr.Vito says:

    Probably ought to remember we had a Senate race in 2016, and Rubio won by 8%.

    If it is Dem leaning Latinos that are dropping off, remember that they are what made Florida close. Trump won Cubans by 13.

    Dems would have to have a white surge that is not kneecapped by a latino dropoff.

  1198. Marv says:


    The Aggies have no real shot at the SEC West as long as Nick Saban is at Alabama. When he retires, I like the Aggies chances with Coach Fisher.

    Agree with your assessment of Cruz, but figure him to win by >5 points.

  1199. Phil says:

    Marv, nobody has any chance against the Alabama machine. Did you see them steamroll LSU at Baton Rouge. Men against boys. Best college football team I have ever seen.

  1200. Marv says:


    Yes, I watched the first half of the ALA/LSU game.
    I switched over to ABC and watched the Texas Tech/OU game. Didn’t like that outcome either.

  1201. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1233. “RRH: “We put the BLUE in the red!””

    I looked at RHH a couple of times, it provides a good source for poll results, but their predictions are way off base. They predict California50 will be won by the Democrats; this is a heavily Republican district and the early voting shows it. Plus, the Democrats nominated an awful candidate. Democrats I talk to do not believe their candidate will win.

    RHH predicts the Democrat will win in Utah4; I know of no one in Utah who knows the district who does not think the district is too close to call. Love might be a small favorite.

  1202. Chicon says:

    Agree on Bama – best team they’ve had in this amazing stretch. The spreads on their playoff games will be interesting.

  1203. Marv says:

    Back to the election…..I see enough evidence now in the EV/VBM data and even in the weekend generic ballot polls to conclude that there is substantial movement towards the GOP.

    I think that we will have a very good night overall with only a very few disappointments, primarily in House races. We keep
    the House, net ~4 or 5 Senate seats and hold the FL and GA
    Governor seats.

    Anyone else?

  1204. Victrc says:


    You mention ocasio Cortez and here is something interesting that is circulating in dem circles in the hill. Crowley is still on the ballot in the district and there is the feeling that there may be enough voters who are just used to pulling the lever for him to actually beat her in the general…not to mention cross over R’s that want to see her lose.

    Not saying this is probable, but there are definitely some in leadership that think this could happen. They base it on so few voters showing up at the primary which is how she was able to win. His voters never expected to need to vote in the primary.

  1205. Scooterboy says:

    Wasn’t one of the problems in 2016 was that pollsters underestimated rural turnout? Could they be making the same mistake again?

  1206. Chicon says:

    Marv – Robbie will be along soon to let you know that you are a stupid Trump lovee. I’m sure you’ll be crushed….

    I’m in general agreement with you, although I’m not ready to say we’ll take the House.

  1207. Mr.Vito says:

    Montana early ballots received relative to 2016:

    Trump/GianforteCounties: 91.5%
    Clinton/BullockCounties: 88.2%
    Trump/BullockCounties: 85.8%

  1208. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    This election is showing signs of having a large turnout by both Republicans and Democrats. Its not a wave of one party’s voters. Going to be interesting and close.

    Too often, polls are treated as if they were brought down by Moses from the Mountain. They are educated guesses based on mathematical models, weighing, and various different ways to contact voters, unlike the past where the vast majority of the population had land lines. In 2016 the polls was disastrously incorrect; there is no reason to suggest that will change in 2018.

  1209. Mr.Vito says:

    “… had land lines. ”

    and answered the phone…

  1210. Marv says:


    We don’t have to take the House, we have to hold it. I think we hang on in the vicinity of 222R-213D.

  1211. BayernFan says:

    How can Crowley be on the ballot?

  1212. jaichind says:

    @1246 mr vito. I think MT is not about partisan breakdown which if it was the we would win for sure. It is more about Tester personal appeal beyond Dems.

  1213. Marv says:

    #1250 BayernFan,

    Crowley is the nominee of the Working Families Party and is on the NY-14 ballot.

  1214. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1242. “Anyone else?”

    Republicans pick up 2-3 seats in the Senate.

    Democrats pick up 18-30 seats in the House. I used to predict it would be 20-30 seats, but the Republican turn-out is high in early voting/absentee ballots in the contested California House districts.

    Saying this, I hope Marv’s predictions are correct, and mine are wrong.

  1215. Mr.Vito says:

    Ann Selzer

    Hubbell(D) 46
    Reynolds(R) 44

    Iowa Generic Congressional Ballot

    Dem 45
    GOP 39

    “A two-point lead is small under any circumstances, Selzer said, but adding to the closeness of the race “is an underlying support for Reynolds, even though she is trailing at this point.”

    Reynolds leads across six of seven leadership traits for which the poll tested.”

    “Hubbell leads across three of the state’s four congressional districts: He’s up 2 percentage points in the 1st District; 8 points in the 2nd District and 7 points in the 3rd District.

    Reynolds leads by 9 points in the 4th District, the most conservative congressional district in Iowa.”

  1216. Mr.Vito says:

    “@1246 mr vito. I think MT is not about partisan breakdown which if it was the we would win for sure. It is more about Tester personal appeal beyond Dems.”

    That’s why I listed it by tendency to split tickets.

  1217. mnw says:

    As Grassley said, he’s 85, so the next governor may be appointing his successor.

    I credit every word Selzer writes at 100 cents to the dollar. I think that GCB is alarming, fwiw.

  1218. Marv says:

    #1253 SanDiegoCitizen,

    We are closer in our predictions than it looks. I would have agreed with you a couple of weeks ago. Elections are similar to warfare and sporting events in that substantial momentum can be decisive.

    The current momentum appears to be with the GOP. I am not
    discounting Dem enthusiasm, but the GOP has equal enthusiasm. GOP performance so far appears sufficient to hold the House, albeit narrowly.

  1219. mnw says:

    Schwenkarm DID say that IA & CO were the only two states where the DEMs were outperforming on the EV.

  1220. mnw says:

    Schweikart says, “GOP holds HOUSE by 5-10. Adds 5-7 in SEN. That’s been my prediction since July.”

  1221. ReadyFirst says:

    1242. Marv. Mine was posted in 1016 when the Cow called us out.
    “Called out by the Cow, lol. All right, I’ve seen enough EV and I’m in. Reps +4 Senate. Then, technically, House 220 Rep – 215 Dem. I say technically because, after Pelosi discovers she won’t be Speaker, her head explodes and the House then becomes 220-214.”

  1222. Marv says:

    FL SOS update @ 1:07 pm. GOP netted another 272 ballots and now lead total EV/VBM by 29,545 ballots.

  1223. Mr.Vito says:

    Schweikert is giving the absolute best scenario.

    I don’t see it.

  1224. ReadyFirst says:

    I bet there’s a 4:05 update today also. Not convinced today will be a huge EV day for Dems. I think they did most of their business last weekend. Additionally, they’re all hung over after the Jimmy Butfett concert.

  1225. Tina says:

    Marv, I have not visited in a while.

    Maybe next year?

    In ca, looks good in the ev.

    Cox is running strong at the top, but the state is sheot.

  1226. ReadyFirst says:

    *Buffett. Sorry fellow parrot heads.

  1227. Marv says:


    The Miami Dolphins have a home game today. That could hold down the EV activity in So Fl.

  1228. ReadyFirst says:

    Great timing there Marv!

  1229. Redmen4ever says:

    Schweikert: It’s possible the entire mass of polling is wrong, and the partisan make-up of the early vote (as inferred by its distribution across counties) is correct. It’s also possible a tossed coin falls on its edge.

    The early vote can be taken as indicating that our side will turn out more so than is baked into the polls through assumed turnout models. It is reasonable to think we will win a disproportionate share of the close ones and a few we’re not supposed to win.

    Personally, I wouldn’t mind colleges and universities providing again providing puppy dogs and coloring books to the social justice warriors.

  1230. Mr.Vito says:

    “It’s possible…”

    According to his forecast it’s definite…

  1231. DW says:

    WI_06, a seat that was supposed to be in play:

    Kohl (D) 33%
    Grothman (R) 61%

    500 LV, Bold Blue Campaigns

  1232. Tina says:

    Ralston Reid does not sound too comfy.

  1233. phoenixrisen says:

    He doesn’t Tina and he just drips contempt for the GOP, saying Trump fatigue is setting in and anger is rising in saner circles (These would be RINO politicians who are more agreeable to Democrats). I had to laugh. He isn’t making a confident prediction, he’s making a wishful one like Nate Silver. The 23K pad won’t be enough.

  1234. mnw says:

    1268 Red

    Where’d u find that, pls? I haven’t seen that in any of his recent tweets.

  1235. DW says:

    Nate Silver is just upset that he doesn’t get a nice toupee like Sabato and Cook. Instead he looks like Dilbert’s pointy-haired boss.

  1236. JeffP says:

    Ralston is nervous just like every other D hack. They had no idea the GOP would have the EV vote they have now. I am feeling better by the day. I put $50 on Heller.

  1237. Phil says:

    Just read Ralston’s prediction. Wow. What a partisan hack. Not so much his prediction but rather the way he characterizes Heller and Laxalt. Talk about over the top.

  1238. Tina says:

    Heller won Indys by 20 in 2012, where Quittens won them by 7.

    Trump won Indys by 16

    A 22k statewide “lead” is not insurmountabl in Nv, where indies tend to swing R and Rs vote on The Election Day.

  1239. Tina says:

    And this is one state, where Trumps overall approval has gone up since 2016. And R registrations increased during this time.

    I like our chances, it will be close, but Heller always wins,

  1240. Bitterlaw says:

    Watching Falcons-Redskins. 2 ads stick out. The Republican running against Menendez in NJ promised to stand up and fight Trump and also protect coverage for pre-existing conditions. That could help the Republican. (I don’t live in NJ but I do want a beach house in Ocean City. I never voted for a Democrat in NJ or anywhere else. My family members living in NJ will vote vote straight GOP. Wes can suck it)

    Andy Kim is the a Dem running for Congress in South Jersey. He highlights working for Obama. He said that when he was in The Situation Room, there was no emphasis on politics. Hmmmmm. I was not aware there were so many bipartisan moments in the Situation Room at the White House.

  1241. jason says:

    So Ralston predicts all Dems win by 2.


  1242. HHR says:

    Why is it that only Democrats are partisan hacks? There must be Republican partisan hacks somewhere, right?

  1243. phoenixrisen says:

    Twitchy with a huge tell regarding Tuesday.

    74% of voters in poll are very satisfied with their personal financial situation.

    Remember the key question regarding the 2012 election where 81% of voters stated Obama cared about them. Same kind of question of what the NBC poll shows.

    Also, their partisan breakdown is D+3. Quite reasonable. However, you have to wonder where in the country or states did they poll.

  1244. jason says:

    “Targeting immigrants”

    You gotta love the MSM….

    John Harwood

    new NBC/WSJ poll: by targeting immigrants, Trump has rallied white working-class voters and improved GOP chances in Tuesday’s elections”

  1245. phoenixrisen says:

    Another key number I noticed about the poll. Indies and youth look quite unmotivated to vote. This isn’t breaking the Dems’ way at all. Lots of red siren lights for the Dems coming at them with this weekend polling.

  1246. Phil says:

    Targeting immigrants my ass.


  1247. lisab says:

    at what time on tuesday will we know how things are really breaking?

    in 2016 it was 9 pm

  1248. mnw says:


    If u haven’t done so, pls read Richard Baris’ analysis of NV SEN, which is actually in LAURA Baris’ tweet. (Link to Laura at Richard Baris.)

    Bottomline: Richard Baris concludes, looking at all the available NV data, that Heller/Rosen is on the razor’s edge & could be decided by a few hundred votes.

  1249. Tina says:

    Cn and n banned Trumps ad. trump jr fit d off a tweet and cn and n the. Wrote via tweet that it is racist.

    They were stupid enough to fund the convoy.

  1250. Tina says:

    Was she in the situation room when

    Obumbler mentioned you can keep your plan and keep your doctor?

    When they targeted conservatives through the irs?

    When they spied on the congress and read their emails?

    What about the Russian hoax?

  1251. Tina says:

    Julie Kelly
    More polls. This one is even worse for Ds than WashPo/ABC News poll bc it polled RVs in competitive districts. Dems are up only +3 in generic House vote. A tie, or worse, with a +3 D sample. Repubs most likely to vote: 69% vs 63% for Ds. Independents break for Rs, 47-42.…
    View location ·

  1252. phoenixrisen says:

    #1292 — BOOM!!!

  1253. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The fact the trolls are not here to claim a blue wave will happen on Tuesday says something.

  1254. mnw says:

    1292 Tina & phoenix

    I think Julie Kelly cherrypicked the CBS/YouGov poll, & that overall, it isn’t encouraging.

  1255. ReadyFirst says:

    1292. Tina, Those independent numbers are a MAGA Boom!

  1256. Frank says:


    Alliance has updated their polls, effective yesterday at 5:30 pm.


  1257. Mr.Vito says:

    For CBS yougov battleground:

    The set of competitive and likely competitive districts in this wave are: AR02, AZ02, CA10,
    CA21, CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, CA49, CO06, FL15, FL26, FL27, GA06, IA01, IA03, IL06,
    IL12, IL13, IL14, KS02, KS03, KY06, ME02, MI06, MI08, MI11, MN01, MN02, MN03, MN08,
    NC09, NC13, NE02, NH01, NJ02, NJ03, NJ07, NJ11, NM02, NV03, NV04, NY11, NY19, NY22,
    NY24, OH01, OH12, PA01, PA05, PA06, PA07, PA08, PA10, PA17, TX07, TX23, TX32, UT04,
    VA02, VA07, VA10, WA03, WA05, WA08, WV03.

  1258. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Brent Taylor, the mayor of a North Ogden in Utah, was considered a rising political star in Utah. He was expected to be elected to statewide office someday. He was just killed serving with the Utah National Guard in Afghanistan. It was his third deployment. He leaves behind a wife and seven children.

    After the 9-11 attack, Brent Taylor and five of his brothers all volunteered to serve in the Army. This is heartbreaking. Utah is in mourning.

  1259. Waingro says:

    #1298, thanks Frank. I assume those crosstab breakdowns are by turnout levels?

  1260. Brandon says:

    NJ-02 is certainly no battleground. Solid D.

  1261. Waingro says:

    #1270, “Quite simply, Heller does not deserve to win.“

    Good Lord what a hack Ralston is.

  1262. DW says:

    AZ_01 – Optimus

    O’Halleran (D) 48%
    Rogers (R) 45%

    538 lists it as a two point advantage due to rounding.

  1263. jason says:

    Hey Frank, how goes it?

  1264. jason says:

    Why is it that only Democrats are partisan hacks? There must be Republican partisan hacks somewhere, right?”

    Sure there are. They just won’t get hired or quoted by the MSM.

  1265. Frank says:


    It goes well. Not following too much until a few months ago. Tuesday should be fun to watch. Remember that Indiana polls close early, so follow Vigo County to look for trends. Compare the county results with Trump’s results and we should be able to know how the rest of the night will go.


  1266. mnw says:


    You saw where RCP moved AZ-01 from DEM hold to tossup?

    Also, RRH had some spare change left over & did some sort of down’n’dirty automated poll that has the DEM ahead by the same margin… unless Optimus IS the RRH poll they’re talking about.

  1267. Tina says:

    Chamberlain ??
    Minnesota Senate Candidate @RWPUSA spreads bizarre conspiracy theory suggesting that GOP Congressional leaders have been blackmailed by Russia
    View photo ·

    Queuing the Jebots…

  1268. DW says:

    Faso (R) closed to within 1 point in Siena’s now completed NY_19 poll. 42/43 with 8% undecided. Race is far from ‘over’ even though RRH declared it flipped last week.

  1269. Robbie says:

    Is Dave on strike? How about a new thread?

  1270. DW says:

    Silverhack still keeping up with his narrative that the Dems have just as much chance of capturing the Senate as the GOP does holding the house.

  1271. Tina says:

    Looks like 20000 in Macon.

    Oprah got 500 down the road.

  1272. Longtime reader of the Hedgehog Report. I only comment to make my prediction prior to a major election.

    In regard to the Senate I think the GOP will end the night with 54-55 seats. They may reach 56 if there is an upset in New Jersey, Michigan or Minnesota.

    The House is jump ball. Whichever party takes it will have a majority of around 5 seats. Watch for party switchers. The House will be ungovernable and riven with factions seeking a price for party loyalty. I have been observing politics since 1968 and I have never seen the House this close.

    In the State Houses I see Democrat gains of 3-6.

    Back just before the 2020 election day!

  1273. Tina says:

    I thought Silverfish hedged?

    Is he still unseeing polls?

  1274. DW says:

    Another poll done by Optimus is OH_07, another one that is supposed to be in play:

    Harbaugh (D) 36%
    Gibbs (R) 55%

    Sabato, CNN, Kos and Politico all say its just likely R.

  1275. DW says:

    Silverhack is still cherry-picking polls–shamelessly. If Siena gives good D numbers, it is THE poll that decides the ranking, but if it gives the GOP candidate a good result, it doesn’t register in his formula.

  1276. jaichind says:

    For CBS poll of battleground districts where they had RV Dem lead of 48-45. I looked back to 2016. The average GOP-Dem vote share lead for these districts were 55.9 vs 41.4. On the other hand the average Trump-Clinton vote share breakdown for these districts are 49.0 to 45.3

  1277. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Rush Limbaugh really, really wants Sky Queen McCaskill(D-MO) defeated.
    Many credibly claim that he launched her Senate career in 2006 when he distastefully mocked Michael J. Fox’ Parkinson’s tremors and accused Fox of intentionally not taking his medication so he could “shake” while campaighning for McCaskill’s #1 issue that year, embryonic stem cell research.McCaskill narrowly beat incumbent Jim Talent(R) that year.
    Rush wants his revenge.

  1278. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    In VA CD-7, Brat(R) outlasts Spanberger(D) in the NY Times/ Siena Poll.

  1279. ReadyFirst says:

    Thought this was interesting, found it on a twitter feed. 15,765 FL absentee votes probably won’t count for various reasons. Sounds like it will disproportionately affect Dems. Perhaps they should read the ballot instructions.

  1280. Tina says:

    As update from Baris

    Replying to @Peoples_Pundit
    But for Sinema to overcome that early vote lead, considering what vote is left on the table, she would need a historic margin no Democrat has received among indies AND a monster turnout that favors Democrats. Judging by the data, there’s no such evidence she’ll get it.
    View conversation ·

  1281. Tina says:

    Enema is done.

    No way she makes it up,

    If you look at indies, they break a few points either way.

    Per Baris, in 2008, obumbler beat McCain among Az Is and still lost.

    Trump and Flakey won them by 2 or 3.

  1282. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    Let me make this perfectly clear. If indies break for the GOP, which we see evidence of in this final weekend, the Democrats will not take the House from the Democrats. If Democrats take it, it’ll be the indies. This is a have your pie and eat your cake modeling.…
    View details ·

  1283. Albert Hodges says:


    I wish I could find all of these polls you find, just to try to understand them. It appears you have an uncanny ability to find polls that make things seem as dire as possible and I tend to only see polls that are either middle of the road or leaning GOP, except for those that are obviously discredited.

  1284. JeffP says:

    If Silverhack gets this seriously wrong he is toast.

  1285. mnw says:

    Tina 1325

    However, the only evidence Baris cites for indies breaking toward GOP (that I can detect) is that damn CBS/YouGov poll– I’ve looked & can”t that in there, & some of the people leaving comments can’t either.

  1286. Marv says:

    No late afternoon update from the FL SOS.

    The cumulative GOP lead after Saturday EV/VBM ballots were posted remains at 29,545.

    We appear to be in good shape, even allowing for STTP Sunday. Panhandle counties are open for EV on Monday.
    Most of the rest of the state has concluded early voting, including Miami-Dade.

    To repeat info from my earlier post, the Miami Dolphins had a home game Sunday.

  1287. mnw says:

    LS & Baris also assert that libertarians are “starting to ‘walkaway’ ” & join GOP, but as near as I can backtrack & find, the only evidence offered for this is that Libertarian in MT who endorsed Rosendale recently


  1288. mnw says:

    Politico 3 hrs ago: “Final Polls Point to Narrow House Victory for DEMs”

    LS cites this as “more hedging.” Says, LS, “I remember ‘certainty’ until recently.”

  1289. phoenixrisen says:

    mnw, the indies look to be a wash or a few points eithr way and they are unmotivated. If that is the case, then it is a turnout election between D&R and that is a wash as well. If that holds, the GOP adds some seats to the Senate and I put th GOP’s chances of holding the house at 50/50.

  1290. NYCmike says:

    Did Lord Arsehat say what time on Tuesday he will give his early night exit poll prediction?

  1291. ReadyFirst says:

    Well, tomorrow’s Fl update should be interesting. I’ve seen a few reports of long lines in Broward and Dade. Not what I was hoping to hear, but the lines quite possibly could also be tied to the exceptionally long ballot with 12 constitutional amendments we discussed here a few days ago.

  1292. Todd McCain says:

    On the last day in 2016 Dems gained 50K on the last day; they are going to rack up a large number today but Monday will be good for GOP since I think only Pan Handle counties were opened.

  1293. Wobbles says:

    Lord Arsehat predicts Dems will win between 0 and 60 seats.

  1294. Todd McCain says:

    BOOM Trafalgar:

    Kemp 52
    Abrams 40

  1295. phoenixrisen says:

    Well, Wayne Root says GOP holds House barely and GOP picks up 3-6 Senate seats. He nailed 2026.

    One thing he points out and I wasn’t aware of this. Trumps approval among blacks is 40% according to Rasmussen??!?! Imagine would would happen if half that 40% votes GOP on Tuesday. Heck, even a quarter. Another thing, Hispanics could be stronger than in past for GOP on Tuesday as well. Going to be mighty interesting in 48 hours

  1296. John says:

    Wayne Allyn Root (Las Vegas Review-Journal)whom predicted Trump’s win in 2016 just came out with his predictions….
    GOP…gains 3-6 seats in the Senate
    GOP…holds on to the House because of the middle class will go come out to vote for Trump and the Aftrican-American vote.

  1297. jason says:

    In the State Houses I see Democrat gains of 3-6.”

    Six would be terrible…

  1298. Tina says:

    Wow, that was neck and neck, or moe.

    Poster Tim should comment on this one,

  1299. Bitterlaw says:

    Damn. The Saints and Rams have great offenses and awful defenses. If they meet again in the NFC Championship game, the first one to 56 points wins. Maybe.

  1300. phoenixrisen says:

    1337 — Hey Todd, I saw that there was a Pittsburgh Gazette reporter whom had an article at RCP stating that democracy was coming to deep red Georgia. It sure is, though not in the way I think this reporter was imagining 🙂

  1301. Proud Obamacon says:

    ” I’ve seen a few reports of long lines in Broward and Dade. Not what I was hoping to hear,”

    I know.. sucks when people actually vote, right? /smh


  1302. mnw says:

    To me, in many ways, Stacy Abrams is even worse news than Gillum. Gillum is a big ole bag’o’sleez, but Abrams is a gungrabbin’ ignoramus who can’t manage her own finances– but still thinks she can handle YOURS.

  1303. ReadyFirst says:

    “I know.. sucks when people actually vote, right?”
    Come back and tell us how much you like those votes, instead of bogus polls, on Tuesday./SMH

  1304. Proud Obamacon says:

    Horrors! Stacy Abrams decided to help fund her father’s cancer treatment and agreed to go on a payment plan to pay her taxes. Perfectly legal and proper. Anyone would fund their father’s cancer treatment first.

    Some sick posters on here.



  1305. Proud Obamacon says:

    “Come back and tell us how much you like those votes, instead of bogus polls, on Tuesday./SMH”

    Huh? ?

  1306. mnw says:

    Wayne Allen Root sure is a Red Hat-wearin’ MAGA guy. He didn’t bother to predict NEV SEN, altho we can safely assume he thinks Heller wins. Sure hope he’s right. He offers no statistical analysis, but he used to be a Vegas oddsmaker… so I guess he stayed in a Holiday Inn Express at some point.

  1307. Cash Cow TM says:

    “HHR says:
    November 4, 2018 at 3:41 pm
    Why is it that only Democrats are partisan hacks? There must be Republican partisan hacks somewhere, right?”
    Don’t forget abut Cow Polling, Inc, and Paladin.

  1308. phoenixrisen says:

    Hi Eph! 😀

  1309. BayernFan says:

    So which way are things breaking the weekend before the last day of voting?

  1310. ReadyFirst says:

    Figure it out genius. Hint, it has to do with Dems losing.

  1311. BayernFan says:

    I think you may be right.

  1312. mnw says:

    So… Trafalgar Group:

    (hearts) Heller

    (hearts) Laxalt

    (hearts) Kemp

    does NOT (heart) McSally

    To me, AZ seems the easiest to call, given the EV there.

  1313. mnw says:



  1314. Tina says:

    Looks like 11000 in Tn.

    Rally started.

    Pence is there too.

  1315. Cash Cow TM says:

    U.S. Senate

    Two polls that polled earlier and then again in WV

    Emerson (9/13-9/15) Manchin +12
    Emerson (910-28-10/31) Manchin +5
    MetroNews (8/11-8/20) Manchin +14
    MetroNews (8/16-8-26) Manchin +8
    MetroNews (1019-10/30) Manchin +5

    Trend obviously favors Morrisey, but…

    Is this race changing?
    I am not seeing evidence of a shift against Manchin in this part of WV.

    Joe still getting a lot of R crossovers here…

    View from the backside of Cow is still Manchin wins by 5-8 pt.

  1316. mnw says:

    1358 Cow

    Agreed… but I like what that trendline MAY portend nationally.

    Are we starting to see zee traditional lazt-minute movement, across zee board, toward zee one side or zee ozher?

  1317. Phil says:

    …..and right on cue, CBS on 60 minutes does a huge puff piece on Beto, 36 hours before the polls open.

    I told my wife this week I bet Sixty Minutes does a Beto info commercial Sunday night.

    ….and what do you know? Like I said, right on cue. Do I know these people or do I know these people?

    This was back to back with a hit piece on guns.

    I hate the MSM. They are an arm of the DNC – nothing less, nothing more. CBS knows exactly what they are doing. Not even subtle about it.

  1318. JeffP says:

    The MSM after handling with kid gloves never do wrong Barry for a primary and 8 years and then Trump is evil for two and half they have completely destroyed all of their credibility…probably permanently. Their fake news propaganda arm of the DNC is the enemy of the people. Glad we have a leader point it out. And the majority of our country understands this except Kasich and Romney.

  1319. phoenixrisen says:

    Libs and media are seeing the break toward the GOP and they aren’t happy. Here is the latest 🙂

  1320. mnw says:

    Better they give artificial respiration to Beto’s dying campaign than to some other lefty who might actually win!

  1321. Phil says:

    Well, mnw, if you would have watched this piece you would have thought that rather than Beto’s campaign dying it was, in fact, surging and all because Beto is the absolute symbol of what is good and right about man.

    Truly, it made me want to hurl.

  1322. ReadyFirst says:

    Looks like things are getting worse for Crooked Gillum. This is trending now.
    “These findings indicate that the two Tallahassee elected officials whose records are tied to an “active criminal investigation” are Mayor Andrew Gillum and City Commissioner Scott Maddox.”

  1323. mnw says:


    I can see why it might. I stopped watching 60 Minutes at least 10 years BEFORE Rathergate.

    RE: GA-GOV

    The Wise Men smell a rat about that Trafalgar poll! Kemp running better among whites than Sister Souljah is among AAs? FRAUD! BIAS!

  1324. Cash Cow TM says:

    “mnw says:
    November 4, 2018 at 7:55 pm
    1358 Cow

    Agreed… but I like what that trendline MAY portend nationally.”

    You are right mnw…ashamed to say that Cow did not think of it in that light. Could be part of a glimpse of a mood nation wide..

  1325. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    MOSHEM from RRH
    November 4, 2018 at 8:12 pm
    In 2016, GOP voters tipped the election for Trump on Election Day.

    As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they’ve voted in the last 4 general elections.

    51% of them are Republicans.


  1326. mnw says:


    or at least “a mood redstate wide,” anyway.

    I’d take that. Nuck Few Jersey.

  1327. sane_voter says:

    Having an AA Dem get a smaller % of black support than a Rep getting of white support seems highly unusual.

    maybe it happened when Joe Cao beat William “Freezer cash” Jefferson in LA in 2008.

  1328. mnw says:

    1368 Sheep

    Not sure if Moshem, a hot-eyed DEM cheerleader if ever there was one, meant that to be encouraging for the GOP, but that’s how I interpret it.

  1329. Cash Cow TM says:

    As I have said, I do not really give a ratz azz about most governor races (except I really want Larry Hogan to win reelection in MD)

    But I did do some looking about Oprah’s BFF in GA running for governor…

    Georgia deserves better.

  1330. Proud Obamacon says:

    Sure, Kemp will win by 12. Keep telling yourselves that LOL


  1331. Frank says:


    Alliance just updated their polling data a little while ago.


  1332. BayernFan says:


    I think Braun is well funded, has unified GOP support, and will win by at least 6%

  1333. phoenixrisen says:

    Seeing Tester and Manchin up in their races is disappointing. Thanks Frank for the polling data.

  1334. JeffP says:

    Every state will trend in close per portion to 2016 in relation with Trump voters. This will be the surprise Tuesday and confound the MSM yet again. Probably a D + 2 or 3. But primarily a base Election with Indy voters trending GOP.

    Some states out of reach in the polls in RCP will be close that night. The real wild card is the Black and Hispanic vote. We will see. Overall I think there will be several flips in the Senate and we hold the house by single digit seats.

  1335. mnw says:


    Thanks! Very encouraging! He certainly SHOUD be well funded, being as how he’s Richie Rich.

    Whenever there’s a tight race, people always start grumbling that their guy is weak, disorganized, a poor speaker, a poor fundraiser, etc. So far this cycle, I’ve seen some complaint of that sort about Braun; Kemp; Hawley; DeSantis; Kobach; Renacci; Morrissey; McSally (for not using the negative ads sooner); Cruz & Rosendale.

    I think it’s a function of campaign nerves. more than anything else. “Why can’t that S.O.B. just go out there & be brilliant?”

  1336. BayernFan says:

    I think the media and establishment culture most recently has overplayed its anti-GOP coverage which affects their expectations. For example, they still think that Hispanics and blacks will vote overwhelmingly Dem, and that high turnout favors Dems.

    However, these are different times. High turnout means GOP voters are coming out too. Here 2 years ago many here saw that happening in Florida on Election Day, but the elites and media only saw the record turnout in Dem areas. They totally missed the crazy GOP turnout everywhere.

    I think the caravan coverage may very well have tipped late breakers to the GOP. Trump’s “under the radar” rallies are helping.

    I’m seeing a nice red wall developing, so I’m gonna call things this way…

    GOP gains 5 Senate seats, and loses 9 House seats. GOP could do even better.

  1337. mnw says:

    Hugin sez he has an internal showing him ahead by “a couple of points.” Usually if you really have such an internal, you RELEASE it for public scrutiny, but… Hugin has not.

  1338. BayernFan says:

    If I were Hugin, I’d put the wrap on that poll and let the thing develop further.

  1339. Waingro says:

    The prediction thread at RRH is a funeral home. Nearly everyone picking blue wave, almost total destruction for the GOP.

  1340. Scooby77 says:


    Why? Everything today has been how the Generic Cong Ballot trending our way, liberal prognosticators hedging on their former grandiose predictions, EV data showing Republicans revved up.

    I feel better than I did 2 months ago, for sure.

  1341. MichiganGuy says:

    Senate pickups (R) 56-44
    North Dakota – definitely 100%
    Indiana – high confidence 80%
    Missouri – likely 65%
    Florida – hopeful 55%
    Montana – going out on a limb 50.000001%
    Republicans hold all seats
    House 219 – 216 Republicans hold
    Governor pickups (R)
    Alaska – hopeful 55%
    Oregon – going out on a limb 50.000001%
    Republicans lose
    New Mexico

  1342. Bitterlaw says:

    RIP Rick Grimes. The Walkers never got a bite of you.

  1343. Cash Cow TM says:


    I think the 3 toupees had at Rick Grimes +3.
    RCP average had him down 1 or 2…

  1344. Bitterlaw says:

    Spoke too soon. WTF, Rick?

  1345. Mr.Vito says:


    Daniel Clifton
    ? @DanCliftonStrat

    RCP generic ballot avg has GOP losing just 22 seats. @NateSilver538 rates WSJ poll as A- poll. So we plugged today’s WSJ number into the WSJ’s historical generic ballot record and it shows just a 16 seat GOP loss. If the Red Wall holds, the data was staring every one in the face

  1346. MichiganGuy says:

    wow, thread dead already? 2 days before election? Is everyone over at RRH?

  1347. Mr.Vito says:

    Check out the deterioration of these numbers since GWBs second election.

    Gallup party ID w/o leaners D-R
    (avg August until election day)

    2004: 34-36
    2008: 35-30
    2012: 32-28
    2016: 31-27

    2006: 35-30
    2010: 31-29
    2014: 30-27
    2018: 28-27

    Note the GOP collapsed after Bush and bottomed out at 27 in 2014, 2016, 2018.

    The Dem number has been falling since Obama’s first term.

  1348. mnw says:

    1382 Wain & Scooby

    If you are an RRH Kremlinologist, what they are predicting over there is exactly what you would expect.

    First, it’s a closed circle/echo chamber/confirmation bias thing.

    Secondly, the people who run it are bullies who “herd” dissenters toward the proper consensus

    Third, they really ADMIRE the toupees! They want to be LIKE them! I dare anyone to go over there & posit that the Silver/Cohn circlejerk is leftwing hackery. To them, those guys are Received Wisdom. 2016 was an anomaly, & the toupees & pollsters were BASICALLY correct anyway, i.e., MOE. (Larry Schweikart is a fraud & a huckster who somehow got lucky, btw. Rasmussen Reports isn’t even a “respectable” pollster, etc.)

    Fourth, why go over there & say things that will get you beat up, or banned? What’s the incentive? What normal person wants to be a troll, if they can avoid it? (Our own trolls wouldn’t last 15 minutes at RRH, btw.)

    DW & Sheep

    Did I miss anything?

  1349. Mr.Vito says:

    Now the numbers with independents:

    2004: 47-47
    2008: 50-42
    2012: 49-43
    2016: 46-42

    2006: 51-40
    2010: 44-44
    2014: 45-44
    2018: 47-43

    The Dem number has rebounded slightly since 2010, while the GOP has remained flat.

    The 2016 and 2018 spreads are the same. The current number is somewhere between 2012 and 2016 and ought to be decided by turnout and independents like both of those years…

    hence all the uncertainty and divergence in the signs.

  1350. lisab says:

    in 2016 robbie and corey combined for 10% of posts the day before the election, trolling

    what percent will they have tomorrow?

  1351. mnw says:

    1395 lisab


    That was easy.

  1352. Marv says:

    IP filter ck

  1353. Marv says:

    #1393 ReadyFirst,

    The link is behind the Orlando Sentinel paywall. What does it say?

    My thought is that if the Dems were so all fired up to vote, they would have done so already and not waited unlit the last STTP Sunday before Election Day.

    Even though GOP voters are also pretty enthusiastic down here in FL, a substantial percentage will still wait until Tuesday.

  1354. mnw says:

    I was able to read it. It says that in 2018, about half of AAs have already voted, before the final STTP Sunday. This is unusual, per the article. It says the AA turnout, 17% of the EV, exceeds the AA population (13%) of FL.

  1355. phoenixrisen says:

    Speaking of Robbie, I have noticed he hasn’t been posting in the last 48 hours. I wonder why 😉

  1356. JeffP says:

    MT Senate (n=879) Change Research

    Matt Rosendale (R) 49
    Jon Tester (D) 46
    Rick Breckenridge (L) 3

    Tester only leads 51-38 among independents, and that’s probably not enough for him to win. And Montana’s political trends don’t seem to be in his favor.

  1357. ReadyFirst says:

    Basically what you just said Marv. Here are the two main points.

    “This year, the Sunday tradition of “Souls to the Polls” for African American voters could better be described as “Souls Who’ve Already Been to the Polls.”

    “With more than 423,000 African Americans having voted as of Sunday morning, black turnout since early voting began on Oct. 22 is likely to double statewide numbers from the last midterm election in 2014.”

  1358. phoenixrisen says:

    1401 — Whoa, that’s that crazy lib pollster showing Beto and Cruz deadlocked at 49/49 today. Wonder if there is some misdirection going on here.

  1359. Marv says:

    #1399 mnw,

    Well, the early AA vote bodes well for the GOP then, because at last count we were up in EV/VBM by 29,545 ballots returned.

  1360. lisab says:

    Speaking of Robbie, I have noticed he hasn’t been posting in the last 48 hours. I wonder why

    election probably looks too up in the air

  1361. mnw says:

    1401 JeffP


    Good Lord, man!

  1362. Marv says:

    #1402 ReadyFirst,

    What’s your opinion of the implications of the data points in the article?

  1363. JeffP says:

    @barnes_law bet $50,000 on tonight and they changed the GOP odds on taking the house!


    He tweeted back Clay Travis who caught it…to let everyone know…LOL…it was him.

    I was just going to law a measly $100 too.

  1364. MichiganGuy says:

    New Hampshire Governor
    Sununu (R) 46%
    Kelly (D) 46%
    Jilletta Jarvis (L) 2%
    UNH SurveyCenter Poll

  1365. Marv says:


    So, who’s favored to win the House now?

  1366. Mr.Vito says:

    Independents in the cbsyougov battleground poll:

    Voting to support/oppose Trump: 33-32

    If the Democrats were in control of Congress, do you think their priority would be to:

    pass compromise legislation 18%
    investigate, impeach Trump 82%

    Approval of:
    Trump job 47-53
    Trump Handling of Political Violence 47-53
    Troops to Stop Migrants 59-41

    On immigration… too tough/not tough enough
    Trump: 47-26
    Ds if take control: 5-63

    Effect on you… better/worse
    trade policy 17-25
    healthcare changes 13-23

  1367. mnw says:


    That Change Research poll for MT SEN is the first poll that’s ever shown Rosendale in the lead!

    Hugh is gonna be ecstatic!

    Change also has Gianforte (R) +7 for MT-AL.

    The poll results (only) can be found on twitter @Changepolls.

    538 rates Change as C+, & says they have a +.8% GOP bias.

  1368. mnw says:


    Check out the MT SEN poll, post 1401.

  1369. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    1395.”in 2016 robbie and corey combined for 10% of posts the day before the election, trolling
    what percent will they have tomorrow?”

    They were certain of victory in 2016, so started early on their victory lap. Now, no one really knows what will happen on Tuesday, were all heading into the dark.

  1370. lisab says:

    if the dems don’t win the house, and maybe the senate, the meltdown will be worse than 2016

  1371. lisab says:

    They were certain of victory in 2016, so started early on their victory lap.

    they get pleasure by raining on people

    it will be difficult for them to resist

  1372. mnw says:

    I was gonna post the MT SEN poll at RRH, but… someone already did, & they immediately trashed it as “borderline junk.”

    So there! Surprised?

  1373. MichiganGuy says:

    #1413 mnw, seen that already. Change Research is garbage. They are new (2017) and they only do online polling.

  1374. Phil says:

    Change Research is the same polling outfit that just released a poll showing Beto and Cruz tied 49-49.

    Left wing polling outfit that is just a year old. Somewhat surprising that they would have Tester behind. Not buying either poll, however.

  1375. Mr.Vito says:


    Dem: 86
    Ind: 86
    Rep: 89

    Men: 89
    Wmn: 82

    65plus: 95
    45-64: 89
    30-44: 77
    18-29: 72

    Lib: 91
    Mod: 76
    Con: 89

    White: 87
    Black: 82
    Latno: 79

  1376. JeffP says:


    Odds now R .130 D .110

    When I found out Trump was going to Montana I put down $100 on Rosendale.

  1377. MichiganGuy says:

    Vito, These #’s see awfully high?
    White: 87
    Black: 82
    Latno: 79

  1378. MichiganGuy says:

    SB seem

  1379. Mr.Vito says:

    It is just what the people who actually answered the calls self-reported… take it as a measure of enthusiasm/likelihood rather than concentrating on the actual numbers.

  1380. Mr.Vito says:

    That seems like a really ineffective ad. Everything he complained about applies to both Dems and the GOP, and then he says vote Dem at the end while claiming he’s not partisan.

  1381. Mr.Vito says:

    Let me put it this way… anyone who would be persuaded by that ad would have already been persuaded by the MSM.

  1382. wheelz91 says:

    That New Hampshire poll seems way off .
    They have 47 percent dems and 36 percent rep.
    Eleven percent difference. I don’t think that is the right breakdown for NH.

  1383. Tgca says:


    1+4+2+ 9 = 16

    1+ 6 = 7

    Proof of 9 Cancellation yields sum of remaining numbers:


    9 = 9
    1 + 4 + 2 = 7
    9 + 7 = 16
    1 + 6 = 7

    In other words, adding individual numbers over and over until a single digit sum is yielded can be achieved by shortcuts of excluding any numbers totaling 9.

    Ignore the 9 in 1429
    Only the 1 and 4 and 2 are relevant because

    1 + 4 + 2 + 9 = 16 and further 1 + 6 = 7 which is the same and 1 + 4 + 2 = 7 by ignoring the 9 in 1429

    Isn’t that EXCITING?

    I’ve added numbers thousands of times while driving, walking and riding trains and buses and adding numbers on buildings, cars, public transportation vehicle numbers, sitting in Dr offices, etc. Wherever I see numbers, I have a habit of adding them up to their lowest level ad canceling out 9s to arrive at the lowest single sum as no sum will ever be 0 or greater than 9.

    Clearly, I live life on the edge!

  1384. michael corleone says:

    The problem with the Bloomberg ad is that it rings hollow. Sure school shootings are great tragedies that we all hate to see,, but the macro indicators re the economy and peace are very positive for the GOP. And the polls reflect a new optimism for the country. If the GOP wins on Tuesday it will simply be because unlike 2006 and 2008, the fundamentals do not portend a change in Congress.

  1385. ReadyFirst says:

    1407. Marv. Blacks represented about 17% of the electorate to date. I think that was a high point. I’m now hopeful that after today’s voting AB/EV will be a wash between the parties going into Monday. That would put us well ahead of 2016.

    “As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they’ve voted in the last 4 general elections.
    51% of them are Republicans.”

  1386. Mr.Vito says:

    IBD/TIPP is D+9 on the generic ballot.

  1387. Tgca says:

    Now I’m off to sleep but 1st I must count the numbers on my night-lit digital clock across the room. I do this nightly and whenever I wake and see the time. That’s my interesting past time.

    It’s 1:14 AM
    Which is 1 + 1 + 4 = 6
    …and no 9s to cancel

  1388. phoenixrisen says:

    Trafalgar — Missouri

    Hawley 48

    McCaskill 44

    So long Sky Queen.

  1389. ReadyFirst says:

    *my 1431. That tweet read poorly. Should be 1.3 million super voters of which 51% are Rep.

  1390. ReadyFirst says:

    That makes a 16 point GOP advantage on those 1.3 million supervoters. Assuming STTP was a bust, DEMs could be in some big trouble in FL. These assumptions would give the GOP a 200k vote lead, before the remaining non super voters (estimated 1.2 million) vote.

  1391. Bitterlaw says:


    I heard this from my house last night. Fortunately, nobody was injured.

  1392. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Bitter- glad that there were no injuries.

    This morning, Real Clear Politics moved the Montana Senate race from Lean Tester(D) to Toss-Up.

    Decent data from Morning Consult–Registered Voters.(H/T: RRH)

    Generic Congressional Ballot:

    Democrats 43% (+3)
    Republicans 40%

    Trump JA 45% – 51% (-6)

    Morning Consult/Politico 10/30-11/02 — Registered Voters

  1393. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is a preemptive chill-out on the Florida early vote. Last year, the Democrats were 97,000 ballots ahead after early voting.
    Today will show them about 30,000-35,000 votes ahead and only Panhandle Counties( all Red except Leon County[Tallahasse]) will be open for voting today which should somewhat diminish the Dem. advantage.

  1394. Waingro says:

    NBC/Marist poll of Florida (likely voters)

    Gillum (D) 50%
    DeSantis (R) 46%
    (Was Gillum 48%-43% in Sept)

    Nelson (D) 50%
    Scott (R) 46%
    (Was Nelson 48%-45% in Sept)

    Trump approval: 44%

    Oct 30-Nov 2

  1395. ReadyFirst says:

    FL AB/EV numbers for yesterday are in. AB is net R 62,471 and EV is net D 87,160 for a total of net D 24,689. The red panhandle is still open today. There are also 1.3 million supervoters (people who always vote) who still have yet to vote, which the Reps have a 16 point advantage on. That 16 vote advantage should result in close to 200,000 additional R votes.

  1396. phoenixrisen says:

    Speaking of 1994, sweet memories. Here is a classic Rush TV conclusion the day after.