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Election Eve Thread

Time to get those final predictions in. I’m going with:

Senate – GOP picks up ND and MO, loses NV and AZ. Everything else stays as is and GOP maintains control with 51 seats.
House – Democrats end the night with 221 seats and gain control 221-214.
Larry Hogan wins another term as Governor in Maryland

Posted by Dave at 6:27 am
Filed under: General | Comments (833)

833 Responses to “Election Eve Thread”

  1. Waingro says:

    NBC/Marist poll of Florida (likely voters)

    FL-GOV
    Gillum (D) 50%
    DeSantis (R) 46%
    (Was Gillum 48%-43% in Sept)

    FL-SEN
    Nelson (D) 50%
    Scott (R) 46%
    (Was Nelson 48%-45% in Sept)

    Trump approval: 44%

    Oct 30-Nov 2

  2. SoHope says:

    What’s the format of our predictions?
    I’ll go with final results being:
    SENATE GOP+4 losing only one of these
    AZ, NV, ND, MO, FL, IN, MT
    HOUSE GOP-20

  3. Skippy says:

    Skippy Prediction:

    Senate:

    GOP flips MO + ND
    DEM flips NV

    GOP end the night with 52 seats.

    House:

    Dems end the night with 220 seats

  4. Skippy says:

    I do believe Nelson hangs on to win in Florida. But Trump’s approval is higher than 44% in Florida. It won’t quite be Nelson by 4.

  5. Skippy says:

    Huuummmm…..

    “The final POLITICO/Morning Consult poll prior to the midterm elections shows Republicans cutting into Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot.

    According to the poll, 43 percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district — only slightly more than the 40 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are undecided.

    Among those who say they are very likely to vote or have already voted, Democrats lead by 4 percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.”

    That’s a slightly smaller edge for Democrats than other public polls conducted in the immediate run-up to the election, but it fits an overall trend of modest tightening on the general ballot.

  6. Hugh says:

    I don’t like the results so toss it. Btw. I saw they were saying 17% black vote so far. I do not thin that is right

  7. Skippy says:

    CNN Generic Ballot this morning:

    Dems +13

  8. Albert Hodges says:

    After the 2018 midterm election:

    1) Senate: 55 GOP, 45 GOP…we win ND, MO, IN, FL
    and do not lose AZ or NEV

    2) House: 220 GOP, 215 Democrat

  9. Hugh says:

    Stuck in an airport with nothing but cnn on the tv. It is insufferable. As if flying isn’t bad enough

  10. Messy says:

    I’m voting in this mid-term election!!

    So the least you can do is get off your apathetic ass and vote to counter and nullify my vote

    —A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE ACE BACKWORDS FOUNDATION

  11. Skippy says:

    NBC/Marist Poll – MO

    Has Hawley down 50-47.

    Absolute BS.

    That’s not happening.

  12. Messy says:

    9. That’s why I hang out here. I love me some cockeyed optimists.

  13. Hugh says:

    Remember the basic rule pollsters do what whoever is paying them wants. The final polls will give the dems slight leads within the margin of error. That makes the people paying them happy and they can claim they were with the moe. Our revenge will be sweet. It’s always the money.

  14. dblaikie says:

    Good morning fellow posters. I have been away on a small vacation to attend a wedding. I am going to give my Senate picks now. First the GOP will hold all four contested Senate Seats. Blackburn and Cruz will win by over 5 points. However Heller is going to win in a barn burner. He needs to win Washoe at least as much as Hillary did (3000 votes) but of course if he could win by the 20000 he got in 2012 the election would be his without doubt. McSally is going to win Arizona.

    The GOP will win ND, MO, Indiana fairly easily. The red in them is too strong. Florida depends on the vote in the panhandle after the hurricane, but I believe it is going to come out big. The GOP in Florida is often under polled so I am going to go with Scot in a tight race. However I believe the Dems will hold on to W. Viginia. Finally I believe that there will be one upset tonight towards the GOP. Either in Michigan or New Jersey there will be a surprise. So my picks for the Senate is GOP plus five.

    I will announce my prediction for the House later. Last week it was that the GOP would lose 5 seats.

  15. Hugh says:

    Assuming my math is correct a 20k net lead for dems in Florida

  16. dblaikie says:

    I can help but laugh at the generic numbers this morning. Morning Consult in a poll of registered voter (can’t believe that) shows a gap of 3, while CNN comes with its whopping dem + 13. What can I say I hate only polling registered voters and it is obvious that CNN, being the heart of the Anti Trump movement are giving it one last effort to depress GOP turnout.

    So what do you take out of all these Generics, except CNN (needs to be ignored)? One, ignore the top line numbers. We will find out what they are in two days. But more importantly they all show a significant tightening. The cynic in believes that they have always known that it was tight, so unlike CNN this is a last ditch effort to keep their reputations.

  17. MichiganGuy says:

    dblaikie, you don’t think Rosendale will win in Montana?

  18. Hugh says:

    Check that 24k

  19. Skippy says:

    Early Voting + VBM Florida 2016 one day before Election Day:

    Democrats +88,012

    Early Voting + VBM Florida one day before Election Day:

    Democrats +24,689

    Democrats are still 60,000 plus short of 2016 numbers.

  20. Hugh says:

    I think we win MT

  21. ReadyFirst says:

    FL AB/EV numbers for yesterday are in. AB is net R 62,471 and EV is net D 87,160 for a total of net D 24,689. The red panhandle is still open today. There are also 1.3 million supervoters (people who always vote) who still have yet to vote, which the Reps have a 16 point advantage on. That 16 vote advantage should result in close to 200,000 additional R votes.

  22. Tina says:

    au ng
    @athein1
    48s
    FL EV update 7:24 pm 11/5 — “souls to the polls” data is in. D lead now at 24689. When panhandle data comes in from today + contd absentees statewide, I conservatively estimate D lead to be at 30k or less, as mentioned last night. As long as Rs go vote, they win, hands down pic.twitter.com/gzHSCk3x9j
    View photo ·

  23. Hugh says:

    RF. Where did you get that 17% black vote in Florida. I think that is wrong

  24. MichiganGuy says:

    #21 Hugh, so do I.

  25. dblaikie says:

    Michigan Guy, it is early in the morning. Just got my coffee. I am going with Rosendale. Let me tell you why. The hatred between him and Trump was deep over the fight about the veterans post. So I don’t see how someone who voted for Trump can turn around and pull the lever for Tester. So my decision is not based on polls, but based on my gut. So thank you for bringing up my omission. Old dblaikie is out on his branch predicting 6 Senate seats.

  26. dblaikie says:

    Skippy is the panhandle vote in yet? I am sure you know.

  27. ReadyFirst says:

    The tweet is not clear. The 1.3 million voters are supervoters, which Rs are 51% of, for a R lead of 16 points, or roughly 200,000 votes. Beyond the supervoters, there are another estimated 1.2 million additional voters for a total of roughly 7.5 million FL voters this election.

    “As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they’ve voted in the last 4 general elections.
    51% of them are Republicans.”

    https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1059216246087000064

  28. RB says:

    CNN has D+13…i’ll say this big difference between D+13 vs D+7:8 as shown in ABC and NBC…the difference between NBC and CNN is about 30 seats…so CNN is seeing a 50+ seat flip…someone is going to be very wrong on Wed

    I am guessing FOX will have a national poll come out today(not sure just speculating)

  29. Hugh says:

    I can’t help it the rescue polls make me nervous. I am plus three for the senate. I think we win all our seats plus in mo fl mt however I will be wrong on one of the 4.

  30. dblaikie says:

    I don’t trust any poll. But I will be interested in seeing what the final Rassmussen poll shows today. Last Wednesday it was 3 points.

  31. RB says:

    We’ll see about the Marist polls…i really hope they are wrong and they can be put to bed, but we shall see

  32. Hugh says:

    You cannot have the current ev results and a 17% black turnout %. 14 or so is more like it and below that after Election Day.

  33. dblaikie says:

    Hugh, we only have one day to wait. I tire of these polls because they very well could be rescue polls. They are all over the map. But, take heart, except for CNN all these generic numbers are showing a movement to the GOP or they always knew that their earlier polls were bogus and now comes saving your reputation.

  34. ReadyFirst says:

    24. Hugh, last thread.
    “Overall, African Americans – 13.3 percent of the electorate – made up 17 percent of early voters going into Sunday, the traditional “Souls to the Polls” day when buses take large groups directly from churches to early voting sites.”

    https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-ne-souls-to-the-polls-central-florida-20181102-story.html

  35. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Can anyone find at least 0ne NBC/Marist Poll over the past two years which has shown a Republican in the lead?
    Second, the NBC /Marist Poll ended on November 1st. Yet 4 days passed prior to release. Why? The answer is obvious.
    Third,The poll’s crosstabs show Nelson +1 in the Panhandle region. Highly unlikely.

    I looked at the crosstabs for the new CNN Generic Congressional Ballot poll and the Party Identification although not formally stated, has to be a D+9 or more. Both Parties maintain their bases almost identically and it has Indies at D+14.

  36. Todd McCain says:

    BOOOOOOOOOM!!

    Change Research:

    Rosendale 49
    Tester 46

  37. ReadyFirst says:

    ReadyFirst says:
    November 3, 2018 at 7:27 pm
    Called out by the Cow, lol. All right, I’ve seen enough EV and I’m in. Reps +4 Senate. Then, technically, House 220 Rep – 215 Dem. I say technically because, after Pelosi discovers she won’t be Speaker, her head explodes and the House then becomes 220-214.

  38. Hugh says:

    I know they are saying it but why

  39. jaichind says:

    @37 Todd McCain. Change Research also came out with other senate polls some of which seems to other races more GOP than expected. Namely PA where they had Dem +7

  40. marc says:

    The media has to much invested to change course now especially fake news CNN and NBC. If they are wrong you can bet President Trump will screwer them for doing fake polls along with fake news also.

  41. hugh says:

    If blacks made up 17% of the early vote before Sunday, we would not have been leading at that point. No way no how.

  42. marc says:

    That is the bet the media is willing to take b/c news isn’t not their business, propaganda is.

    Races I will be watching tommrow night is Indiana Senate that will be one of the first closings. FL-Gov, Senate, FL-6(my district) FL-27.

  43. jaichind says:

    It seems Quinnipiac came out with a poll in FL with both Gillum and Nelson up by 7

  44. ReadyFirst says:

    Hugh, the raw number black vote going into Sunday which the reporter based the 17% on was 423,000. So, you would be correct then that the number is not 17% as we were only at what going into yesterday? 4.7 million votes? Sounds like reporter math.

    https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/political-pulse/os-ne-souls-to-the-polls-central-florida-20181102-story.html

  45. marc says:

    Karl Royce predicted 54 GOP seats in the Senate. House will be decided be late ballots out of California days after election.

  46. marc says:

    Karl Rove

  47. ReadyFirst says:

    The demographics of the democrat vote doesn’t change the total democrat vote total though. What it may indicate though is independents breaking a certain way.

  48. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #44
    The Quinn Poll has a PID of D+5. The early vote certainly belies that data point.
    Trump carried Florida Independents by 4 pts. in 2016, yet both Marist and Quinn have Independents going Democratic this year by 15-17%. A 20% swing? Improbable.

  49. marc says:

    The veteran and candidate who SNL attacked Dan Crenshaw is running to replace Ted Poe who is retiring is a lock to be elected on Tuesday.

  50. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    A new Emerson Poll counters the NBC/Marist Poll of the Missouri Senate race. It has Hawley(R) +3.

    #MOpoll

    ? @HawleyMO 49%
    ? @clairecmc 46%
    ? 3% undecided https://t.co/LWnW3Hext4

    Emerson

  51. ReadyFirst says:

    37. TM. That would be good.

  52. hugh says:

    on the Q poll, you would have to do a lot of your own math to figure it out. It does say nelson leads indies by 13 which would be historic and unprecedented. If the dem is leading indies by 13 in FL we will have a very long night. Having said that, i don’t believe.

  53. Cash Cow TM says:

    REPOSTING FROM SEVERAL DAYS AGO, THE FIRST PREDICTION ON HHR FOR THE 2018 ELECTION

    (as it says somewhere in the Bible
    “…a Cow will led them…”)

    HAVE MADE MY FINAL PREDICTIONS:

    AZ—R, McSally(ride around Sally, do a victory lap)
    FL—R, Scott (GREAT SCOTT!)
    IN—R, Braun (Braun beats brains out of opponent)
    MI, D, Stabmenow (cows ay she wins teets down)
    MN, D, Smith (Ms. Smith goes back to Washington)
    MO—R, Hawley (Hawley ‘forks’ McCaskill)
    MT—D, Tester (They vote for the Tester…)
    NJ—D, Menendez (…and the molester)
    NV—R, Heller (the Hell you say!)
    ND—R, Cramer (he gets 90% of Sienfeld viewers)
    OH–D, Brown (voters again wait to see what Brown can do for them…)
    TN—R, Blackburn (She burns the opposition)
    TX—R, Cruz (Cruz cruises)
    WI—D, Baldwin (I got nothin…)
    WV—D, Manchin (…here either…)

    (someone who has fingers instead of hooves will have to count up the final tally in Senate based on Cow predictions)
    *********************************
    U.S. House of Rep final
    D 221

  54. Skippy says:

    Well…I tried to warn you all about the INDY voters breaking against the GOP in Forida 10 days ago but I was call a troll and told to GFY.

    It’s why I don’t have Scott winning Forida.
    It’s why Democrats will take the House.

    But I do believe Republican base turnout will be strong enough to push McSalley & Hawley across the finish line.

    Unfortunately we don’t flip Indiana, Montana or Florida.

  55. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Rasmussen(less) has its final Congressional Generic Ballot at R+1–47/46.

  56. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #56
    should be 46/45. R+1.

  57. Redmen4ever says:

    It is not possible to reconcile the polling results of certain poll-taking organizations with others. Two years ago, I saw a convergence of polls by technology. This year, not.

    Senate: 55Rs to 45Ds.
    House 218Rs to 217Ds.

  58. marc says:

    CNN barely mentions its own polling showing D+13 and Trump at 39%. Then claims they election could go anyway

  59. Tina says:

    Barks tweeted that the Drats in Florida ended ev weakly.

  60. DW says:

    56 – you forgot the BOOM!

  61. Tina says:

    aris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    2h
    We will show you why VERY soon. There was no poll in AZ1. They moved it because McSally has an almost insurmountable EV lead. And the CD-by-CD stomp overflowed into CD01. R+5706 twitter.com/LarrySchweikar…

  62. Tina says:

    Baris*

  63. DW says:

    Siena went hard left with its last batch of house polls.

  64. jaichind says:

    For FL St. Pete Polls which had Scott+1 Gillum+2 a couple of days ago now has Nelson and Gillum both at +4. Looks like everyone is hearing toward around the same results for FL

  65. DW says:

    So CNN is D+13 and Rasmussen is R+1.

    Someone is posting results outside the margin of error.

  66. DW says:

    We will finally know tomorrow, when Democrats will come out in force to put a stop to all the jobs being created and all the wealth pouring into their 401k savings.

  67. Wobbles says:

    Senate 55 – 45 Dem

    GOP loses 73 House seats

    If Jeb was President, GOP would gain 34 seats in the House and 15 in the Senate.

    Blame Trump.

  68. DW says:

    I am putting together my final house prediction. Will post it soon.

  69. JeffP says:

    RAS has R +1…. REALLY!!! Hot dang if that is correct it will be amazing.

    My prediction is coming. Independents are breaking GOP.

    Trump has put this electorate on fire. The stupid DEMS sure made their own bed and helped with Judge K.

  70. jason says:

    America is wonderful place.

    Even someone as illiterate and ignorant as Messy can vote.

  71. Todd McCain says:

    I would think the panhandle being open today all by itself would net the GOP 5-10,000 votes, no?

  72. jason says:

    Lord Arsehat says it will be something between RAS +1 and CNN + 13

  73. hugh says:

    65. Yep everyone, but those pesky early voters and large percentage rep vs dem always reliable voters yet to come. Again, maybe we see an historic swing towards dems with indies. Perhaps they like slow job growth, angry mobs and runaway immigration. We will see.

  74. Jayhawker says:

    My final predictions

    Senate:
    GOP: Holds all of their seats.

    And wins the following in order of the margin of victory:

    ND
    IN
    MO
    MT
    WV
    FL
    MN:Special
    NJ

    GOP +8 in Senate

    Races that will be a virtual tie
    WI
    MI
    OH

    House seats per state:
    AK: GOP Hold
    AZ: GOP Even
    AR: GOP Hold
    CA: GOP -1
    CO: GOP Hold
    FL: GOP Hold
    GA: GOP Hold
    IL: GOP-1
    IN: GOP Hold
    IA: GOP Hold
    KS: GOP Hold
    KY: GOP Hold
    ME: GOP Hold
    MI: GOP Hold
    MN: GOP +1
    MO: GOP Hold
    NE: GOP hold
    NV: GOP +1
    NJ: GOP-1
    NM: GOP Hold
    NY: GOP Hold
    NC: GOP Hold
    OH: GOP Hold
    OK: GOP Hold
    OR: GOP +1
    PA: GOP -3
    TX: GOP Hold
    UT: GOP Hold
    VA: GOP Hold, yes Comstock holds on.
    WA: GOP Hold
    WV: GOP Hold
    WI: GOP Hold

    GOP -3

    If anyone wants any of my spreadsheets that I use to track the vote as it comes in, I can let you have them. It has depending upon the state the house race returns per county since 2012 and for the senate county returns for president and senate from 2012.

  75. jason says:

    … but I was call a troll and told to GFY.

    Did you do it?

  76. Phil says:

    Ok, Florida ain’t looking so great. I’ll give you that. Still, ND is in the bank and I believe we hold one of two out of Arizona and Nevada. Still think the odds are we get at least one out of Indiana and Mo. That’s a pick up of one senate seat. Not great but gives us 52 senate seats. With the Jones seat flipping to us in 2020 the odds are we hang on to the senate in 2020 house or no House. Whatever happens tomorrow that’s at least something to be thankful for.

  77. jaichind says:

    For 2020 we have to assume that Trump wins re-election. If he does not I am not sure what the marginal value of holding the Senate after 2020 is. So if we can come out of this election in the Senate with R+2 or better and with AL coming back to us in 2020 I think a Trump victory in 2020 should hold our losses in the Senate outside of AL at 2 seats at the most that should give us a good 52-48 GOP senate post 2020.

  78. jason says:

    Predictit this morning

    GOP House 37%
    McSally 57%
    Cruz 77%
    Manchin 76%
    McCaskill 43%
    Tester 63%
    Manendez 83%
    Heller 44%
    Heitkamp 16%
    DeSantis 37%
    Donnelly 50%
    Blackburn 80%
    Comstock 13%
    Kemp 67%
    AK Governor GOP 84%
    Nev Governor GOP 43%
    OH Governor GOP 50%
    CT Governor GOP 26%

  79. DW says:

    No Surprise, Silverhack takes the CNN poll as solid gold and ignores the Rasmussen, and moves his formula hard left.

  80. Waingro says:

    #78, ” If he does not I am not sure what the marginal value of holding the Senate after 2020 is.”

    Um, if Trump loses in 2020, holding the Senate becomes even MORE crucial!

    Can you say bye bye legislative filibuster? President Kamala Harris will then be ramming through “Medicare for all”, “free” college, repeal of tax cuts and mega amnesty of all amnesties? Not to mention, absolutely zero check on judicial and cabinet appointments.

    That is why anything less than 53 seats after this midterm for the GOP, and I am going to be nervous heading into 2020.

  81. jason says:

    I still think Scott beats the fossil in FL

  82. JeffP says:

    My Prediction…with Independents breaking now to GOP.

    Senate Holds easily
    AZ, TX, ALL the other Strong R races.

    Senate Flips to R
    IN, MO, FL, ND, MT,

    Also 1 surprise flip…WV, NJ, MN 2, MI,

    Senate Flips to D
    NV

    Senate +5 to GOP 56-44.

    House GOP HOLDS… Loses in single digits. GOP +10 overall.

    I win about $500…LOL

  83. jason says:

    Messy, it’s obvious from the CNN poll the Dems will win big, no need to vote.

    It’s over. Tell your friends.

  84. JeffP says:

    DW>Silverhack

  85. Hugh says:

    79. How about scott

  86. Albert Hodges says:

    Florida senate is looking good, that is, if you look at the actual DATA and not polls. Of course, the same negative voices come out to troll.

    78: No need to discuss 2020 yet. Trying to cast doom and gloom already?

    All polls in Florida have consistently said that since Hurricane Michael, they have not polled the panhandle but have extropolated the polls using the GOP data from other areas of Florida.

    That is like asking MA GOPers what they think and then assuming that Alabama GOPers think the same thing.

    The early vote and the absentees ALREADY show a SIGNIFICANT improvement over the 2016 numbers, and there are still PANHANDLE/GOP counties voting TODAY.

    So spread your doom and gloom all you like trolls. But at least be smarter about it.

    Rasmussen shows today not only continued swings toward the GOP over the last week but also shows Trump and the GOP at some of their highest numbers since he took office.

    But who cares about data when trolls gotta troll.

  87. Waingro says:

    Anyway, my predictions:

    Senate: GOP +3 gain to get to 53 seats. Hold AZ and NV. Win ND, MO and IN by a hair.

    House: 228 Dem 207 GOP

    Governor: Dems flip 5.

    State Legislatures: Dems gain approximately 100 seats.

  88. JeffP says:

    I have a feeling I might regret not putting more money on Braun and Scott. Maybe later.

  89. sane_voter says:

    Senate R+3 R’s win ND, MO, IN and FL. Lose NV
    House Dems +30

    I will be happy if I am wrong in the house, but I think there are too many seats in areas where never Trumpers are voting D this year (that includes I’s). The GCB is not capturing this split in the electorate, so we lose more seats than indicated by the recent tightening.

  90. Albert Hodges says:

    Where exactly are neverTrumpers voting D?

    All POLLS taken for months indicate that the GOP is more unified since the Kavanaugh hearing than EVER and that Trump’s approval intraparty is HIGHER than either Bush’s ever was.

    At least since September.

  91. Brion says:

    Senate 55 R
    House 220 R

  92. Tina says:

    @Peoples_Pundit
    9m
    Kyrsten Sinema needs margin among indies no Democrat in the last 4 cycles, including Barack Obama, has ever earned. Polling universes show it’s possible. But also needs ED appx. 71%. Here’s the Arizona EV electorate. R+116,009. That roughly 80% of total electorate. Median age: 62 pic.twitter.com/WuESFJNdUc

  93. DW says:

    My Goodness…I don’t have the time to go into all the details, but having been following all this so closely over the weekend, these forecasters are moving their rankings in lock step with whatever Siena/NY Times is saying–even in polls that were never completed (they ended last night). They all have been mesmerized by the ‘live polling’ gimmick, and treat Siena like Moses coming down from the mountain with the stone tablets.

  94. Robbie says:

    House – Democrats gain 30-40 seats

    Senate – Republicans gain 0-2 seats

    Governors – Democrats gain 8-11

    State legislatures – Democrats gain 250 seats across the country

  95. Waingro says:

    This guy will either be Silverhack 2012 or Dick Morris 2012 come tomorrow morning. Obviously hoping for the former!

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    1h1 hour ago
    Replying to @charlimithinks

    I think he’s off. Rs way ahead of 2016, running about 2% better. Don’t see how Scott loses. DeSantis will be closer, but should win.

  96. Robbie says:

    Wobbles says:
    November 5, 2018 at 9:15 am
    Senate 55 – 45 Dem
    GOP loses 73 House seats
    If Jeb was President, GOP would gain 34 seats in the House and 15 in the Senate.
    Blame Trump.

    – Poor, Jason fraud. What an empty life he leads that has time to do this.

  97. Waingro says:

    Yeah, I’m all off the Florida Train. Does not look good.

    StPete Nelson 50 (+4) Scott 46 Was Scott+1, 3 Days Ago http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenCFO_November04_UI8E.pdf

  98. Phil says:

    Oh, I don’t know, Robbie. It took Jason about ten seconds to make that post. I’d say that leaves him some time to have a life.

  99. Waingro says:

    Ugh.

    Emerson Polling
    ? @EmersonPolling

    #NVpoll

    ? @RosenforNevada 49%
    ? @DeanHeller 45%
    ? 4% undecided

  100. Tina says:

    Phil, any update on Betamale?

  101. Todd McCain says:

    I think we win ND, MO, IN and MT and lose Nevada. I don’t ignore Ralston’s predictions, he’s been right almost every time.

  102. Wes says:

    If you guys don’t want to overdose on antidepressants I recommend avoiding RRH today. One poster there is predicting 1894 in reverse over there.

  103. Robbie says:

    My prediction in the House is based on the suburbs becoming a slaughterhouse for Republicans. I think the weekend polling for House candidates has not been good.

    In the Senate, I think Republicans pick up ND, MO, and IN. I think Democrats gain AZ and NV. Despite media hopes, I think Republicans hold TN and TX, but the outcomes will be closer than they ever should have been.

    In the governor’s races, I think the Democrats gain ME, MI, OH, FL, IL, WI, NM, and NV. I also think GA, IA, KS, SD, and AK are in group that could go to the Democrats if it’s a tsunami (unlikely).

  104. Todd McCain says:

    Florida polls aren’t looking great, but I am buoyed by the early numbers. I still say Scott comes up short, but who knows.

  105. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 5, 2018 at 10:20 am
    Oh, I don’t know, Robbie. It took Jason about ten seconds to make that post. I’d say that leaves him some time to have a life.

    – If you’re spending your time posting under fake names, you don’t have much of a life.

  106. Wes says:

    He’s also claiming NV and AZ are gone with TX and TN going to the Dems too.

  107. Waingro says:

    #103, Wes, I assume you are referring to this bedwetter?

    “valibertarian01 November 5, 2018 at 10:05 am

    well we’re screwed if this last minute polling is correct. 120+ losses in House, lose Senate easily, and lose big in 2020 as well and may never recover to win a presidential race ever again.”

  108. Scooterboy says:

    In order to win, Sinema is going to need a bigger margin with Indies than any other Dem has ever gotten. Anyone see that happening? I sure don’t.

  109. Marv says:

    The FL SOS posted this early am and now shows the GOP down by 24,689 in EV/VBM. On this same day in 2016, the GOP was down by 88012. That’s a swing of 63,323 ballots towards the GOP. The GOP panhandle counties were not open yesterday. They are open today. Miami-Dade and Broward counties have concluded early voting.

  110. Wes says:

    Of course endlessly declaring the apocalypse because JEB! lost is a great sign of having a life, right, Robbie?

  111. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #100- Waingro
    Two weeks ago, Emerson had Heller(R) +7 in the Nevada Senate race.
    So we are to believe that in two weeks there has been an 11 pt. turnaround toward Rosen(D)?

  112. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 10:31 am
    Of course endlessly declaring the apocalypse because JEB! lost is a great sign of having a life, right, Robbie?

    – So sad that the best you’ve got is “but Jeb”.

  113. Phil says:

    Nothing out of Texas, Tina. Early vote is at about 5.8 million. The Target.EarlyVote has their modeled share of it about R plus 800,000. Just no polling the last four or five days. Sixty minutes last night did their best to try and save Beto just as I predicted. Won’t help, however. Two thirds of the Tx vote is already in.

  114. Wes says:

    That would be he, Wain. I can’t take predictions like that remotely seriously.

  115. Tina says:

    Thanks, Phil.

    I do not know anybody that watches 60 minutes anymore.

  116. DW says:

    108- talk about setting a low bar. To lose 120 seats in the house, seats currently ranked Safe R would have to fall, and ALL of the polling would have been strongly tilted wrongly to the GOP all this year.

  117. Wes says:

    I’m not the one who declared doom immediately after JEB! left the race—even declaring Hillary and Ross would win NC despite significant evidence to the contrary—and immediately started confidently declaring a midterm Ragnarok as soon as Trump won, Robbie.

  118. jaichind says:

    Prediction
    Senate R+2
    R Pickup: ND, MO, IN
    D Pickup: NV

    House D+29 224-211

  119. Hugh says:

    98. I hate to see you leave the Florida team. I will make two points on that poll. First it was conducted totally over the weekend. Second it seems to have a highly unlikely split between under and over 50. Excluding Sunday’s votes the over 50 voters exceeds 72%. The under 29 vote in that poll is fiction. I admit these polls are unnerving but they fly in the face of the ev and history.

  120. Phil says:

    I know, Tina. I don’t either, but 60 minutes gave it the old college try. BTW, they did the exact same thing for Ron Kirk in 2002 when they thought Kirk had a chance. He lost to Cornyn by 12 points.

  121. Redmen4ever says:

    For Pete’s Sake!

    According to St. Pete poll, 2 percent of those who have yet to vote switched to Scott over the past two days.

    During this time, with early voting closed one of the two days (except in the panhandle), 3 percent of those who already voted, changed their vote from Scott to Nelson.

    The first is possibly true. The second is not.

    Or, maybe it’s really tough to get a representative sample over the weekend prior to the election.

  122. mnw says:

    I love the way the WORST eeyoring DEM cheerleaders at RRH always say “we”!

    Balls o’steel award: Rasmussen Reports & Larry Schweikart.

  123. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 10:35 am
    I’m not the one who declared doom immediately after JEB! left the race—even declaring Hillary and Ross would win NC despite significant evidence to the contrary—and immediately started confidently declaring a midterm Ragnarok as soon as Trump won, Robbie.

    – I declared doom in 2016 because Trump is a scumbag clown who has no business being president. I underestimated that a good portion of the country simply didn’t want Clinton as president.

    This isn’t 2016 anymore. Trump is president. Voters are issuing their verdict on him as a president for two years. And based on his approval rating, the generic ballot, and the looming loss in the suburbs (long a Republican stronghold), I think the result is going to be bad for Republicans and I’ve felt that way since late Summer and early Fall 2017.

  124. Waingro says:

    #118, I’m not even sure a D+13 tidal wave could get that done.

    It’s amazing how the intellectual mods over there ban, censor and warn people for seemingly innocuous critical/political posts, but let people run roughshod with the irrational, hyperbolic DOOM posts that offer absolutely noting other than hysteria.

  125. Tina says:

    I stopped looking attractive polls about 2 weeks ago.

    Looking at Early votes, and before party registration changes, if available.

  126. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    8m
    10:00 update on FL early/absentees: Ds net up 24,755 On election day in 2016 they were up over 94,000. Rs have in essence picked up 70k votes on D performance.
    View details ·

  127. Wes says:

    So, Robbie, how’d Hillary and Ross work out for you in NC again? You were just as confident they would win not close races two years ago.

  128. Phil says:

    Every day I’m more thankful I’ve not ever been to that RRH site.

  129. Waingro says:

    #121, thanks Hugh. I am definitely bedwetting on FL. Hard to keep beating the chest with the terrible polling coming out left and right.

    But thanks for a rational post that keeps hope alive! Would love to see all these pollsters and “non-partisan” prognosticators eat major crow tomorrow.

  130. Phil says:

    Wes, last minute calls on NC 9 and 13?

  131. Messy says:

    124. Reading the Ras explanation as to how they got it so wrong will be very interesting.

  132. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Emerson also has Sinema(D) +1 in Arizona. (It’s prior two AZ polls had Sinema +6 and +8.) and Nelson(D) +5 in Florida.

  133. Wes says:

    RRH is a Dem-cheerleading site masquerading as a GOP-leaning place for polls and horse race analysis, Wain. That’s been apparent for at least four years—though the tacos of various electoral events are worthwhile.

  134. Wes says:

    I say 13 stays GOP by 5-7 while Harris ekes it out, Phil. I had Harris losing, but he’s ramped up his campaign and looks more likely than not to pull a victory out.

  135. Hugh says:

    If the younger vote comes in at the % shown in most of these polls. We will get swept and it is all for show.

  136. Bitterlaw says:

    Bitterlaw Prdeictons:

    54 GOP seats (MO does not flip because you can’t kill the bogeyman and I want to piss off Wes)

    Dems take the House 218-217. (But Pearl Kim shocks the world and wins PA-05,)

  137. dblaikie says:

    I am glad Robbie’s prediction is in, makes me more comfortable with mine. As I said earlier plus 6 in the Senate. Unfortunately the GOP is going to lose seats in the House. After much soul searching I have decided to stick with my earlier thinking and saying the Dems will flip a total of 5 seats.

    My thinking runs like this: In an earlier post I said I was interested in seeing what Rasmussen was going come out with concerning the generic ballot. Well they came out with the GOP plus 1. However like all polls I don’t trust that number all that much, even though they have come close. However Rasmussen did confirm for me that the trend in all the generics is breaking toward the GOP (except for CNN). So the generic number what ever it is +3 for GOP to +3 for the Dems. I have always believed that the generic was not as big a gap as so many of these bogus pollsters have claimed.

    Karl Rove opined that if the Generic comes down to +4 Democrat the GOP holds the House. Well with this closing trend I am hopeful and a touch confident that it is even closer than that.

    Bottom line, if those 45 squishy Congress people had not decided to retire we would be looking at the GOP gaining about 10 seats. However with the redistricting in Pa. and with all these retirements that will not happen. Instead the GOP will lose about 5 seats.

    I am glad to be in a position where I will either have egg on my face or folks like Robbie have egg on theirs. If I am wrong I pledge that I will not run away from HHR like infamous others have. I will come on and post very clearly that I was totally and completely bogus and wrong. I hope those on the other side have the guts to do the same.

  138. DW says:

    Politico and Cook out with a pile changes almost all in the D direction including absurd changes like WV_02 from Safe R to Lean R. Also a bunch of changes in TX stampeding in the D direction.

  139. Wes says:

    Bitter also declared Mary Landrieu would win for identical reasons in 2014. How’d that work out for you, Bitter?

  140. Marv says:

    When considering the potential outcomes here in FL, I put much more weight on the current EV/VBM ballots returned than I do on any poll. Currently, the GOP is exceeding the 2016 performance and has more proven Election Day voters than the Dems. (From previous thread…“51% of registered voters who voted in the last 4 elections are Republicans.”)

    I maintain that Scott takes out Nelson and DeSantis beats Gillim, although by a narrower margin. (The are probably not
    all that many Scott/Gillum ticket splitters.

  141. Phil says:

    Wes, good to hear. Sounds like Harris has busted his tail. Unfortunately, Culberson in Tx 7 has become the anti Harris. He’s just going through the motions if that. It is a shame because he could have survived had he worked for it. Really pathetic.

  142. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #137
    Also,Wes, the early voting,which finished on Friday, shows Budd winning the early vote in CD-13, Harris slightly behind in CD-9, which is standard fare in NC and Holding modestly behind by 16,000 votes in CD-2.
    Overall, the Dem. ballots exceed the GOP ones by 250,000,the percentages are 42.7%(D) and 30.4%(R) and the early AA vote is at 21.7%.

  143. Waingro says:

    Maybe the RRH bedwetter was referring to this hilarious D+15 poll just released from LA Times:

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181105-story.html

  144. Robbie says:

    dblaikie says:
    November 5, 2018 at 10:50 am
    I am glad Robbie’s prediction is in, makes me more comfortable with mine. As I said earlier plus 6 in the Senate. Unfortunately the GOP is going to lose seats in the House. After much soul searching I have decided to stick with my earlier thinking and saying the Dems will flip a total of 5 seats.

    – Two ends of the spectrum he and I are.

  145. Wes says:

    Harris has actually surprised me, Phil. He’s run a solid ground game and countered his opponent at every turn. More Republicans should run like him.

  146. Bitterlaw says:

    I was wrong, Wes. Zzzzzz. Like you were wrong the night you made an early call on North Carolina or Virgina and the Republican ended up winning. I remember the surrender but not the details. Maybe it was 2014 but I would have to care enough to checks the archives.

  147. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #141
    Funny that you mention West Virginia because a few hours ago, Manchin(D) joined Tester(D-MT) in the Real Clear Politics’ Toss-Up category.

  148. jason says:

    BOOOM

    This isn’t 2016 anymore. Trump is president.”

    Wow, what a breakthrough for Amoral Scumbag.

    I give him credit, I never thought he would admit it.

  149. Wes says:

    Sheep, that’s about where Republicans were in 2014 and about 50,000 ahead of where they were in 2016. Dems were up by 675,000 in their last good year in the state in 2008 before Election Day. That should tell you something.

  150. jason says:

    GOP will win all the very close races where they are only down 2-3 points in the MSM polls.

    + 4 in the Senate, – 20 in the House.

  151. Wes says:

    I’ve never shied away from saying I conceded NC-Sen too early on Election Night 2014, Bitter. That’s a far cry from saying a Dem Senator would win reelection in a solidly GOP state because the stars previously aligned for her against poor candidates.

  152. Marv says:

    #153 Jason,

    Are you predicting 221R-214D House?

    Which 4 Dem Senate seats do you expect to flip?

  153. Wes says:

    By the way, Hugin is running a significantly better campaign than Menendez with his rope-a-dope in NJ. Dems will hang on there, but having to bail out a child-molesting crook didn’t help their goal of recapturing the Senate.

  154. phoenixrisen says:

    Polling all over the place. Bottom line, the indies aren’t there for the Dems, The GOP is fired up arguably a little more than the Dems based on EV where they need to be.

    GOP + 7 in the Senate, holding all GOP seats. Pick-ups in ND, IN, MO, FL and MT. Two surprise pick-ups out though undetermined out of either WV, MN (Smith), MI, And NJ.

    House: Dems pick up 18 seats leavin the GOP with a 223 majority in the House.

    The CNN poll is obviosuly a rescue poll. Here are the factors based on my projection:

    1) Lack of indie support of Dems
    2) Based on NBC/WSJ, indies and 18-29 youth voters were the least motivated.
    3) Highly motivated seniors
    4) Not buying suburban voter weakness for the GOP. That NBC/WSJ question showing 74% were satisfied with their personal financial situation was a killer for the Dems’ chances as well as the Friday jobs report.
    5) Men are just as motivated to vote as women are according to polling.
    6) GOP crushing it again with non-college whites and rural voters.
    7) Record low unemploymenr for blacks and Hispanics. The GOP will make gains there. Getting just 3-5 points could make this ugly for the Dems.
    8) Undecideds breaking the GOP’s way this weekend.

  155. CG says:

    Are we talking about the same Mark Harris who recently said that there cannot be peace in the Middle East until all Jews and Muslims covert to Christianity?

  156. Wes says:

    That would be he, Corey, but regardless of his past sermons, Harris has run an effective campaign.

  157. phoenixrisen says:

    Sorry, math was off, 222 GOP majority in House

  158. Bitterlaw says:

    I expect Menendez to hold on and he will be Senator for life. Other Democrat Senators with lifetime positions include COD’s gift to the nation – Chris Coons.

  159. Wes says:

    GOP +7 in the Senate, Phoenix? I’m thinking more like +3.

  160. DW says:

    My take on the late shifting of voters, particularly independents is that the GOP base is fired up to vote now and will run up the score in deep red districts, matching the Dem intensity in deep blue districts. The battle is still the razor close districts that could tilt either way. My predictions are forthcoming in a few minutes.

  161. Wes says:

    It’s just too bad the Sewer State enjoys having child molesters in the Senate, Bitter. I’m sorry you want to own property in a state that elects such a vile scumbag.

  162. CG says:

    I will post final updated predictions tonight.

    As of 10/15, my Gubernatorial predictions were
    23 D, 27 R (Democrats gain 7, Republicans lose 6)

    As of 10/16, my Senate predictions were 54 R 46 D (Republicans gain 3)

    As of 11/4, my U.S. House predictions were 221 D, 214 R, (Democrats gain 26)

    I think there is going to be some small movement towards Democrats in all three categories when I update tonight. Probably no more than 1 for Governor and Senate races and definitely less than 10 in House races. Traditionally, my predictions wind up being slightly more optimistic for Republicans than the actual results.

    Considering Tossups, etc, I think Republicans will hold the Senate and Democrats will net over 30 House seats.

  163. Bitterlaw says:

    Posts like 157 show why Dave should drug test posters. Keeping the House and picking up 7 Senate seats? Seriously?

  164. Wes says:

    Holding the House is not an impossibility. Winning seven Senate seats is a remarkable stretch.

  165. Todd McCain says:

    I could see +4, but everything has to go perfectly.

  166. Marv says:

    #162 Wes,

    Looks like you expect the GOP to lose in FL and NV, but win in MO, IN, and ND. Is that about right?

  167. Bitterlaw says:

    I just want a beach house, Wes. North Carolina is too far and drenched in the blood of slaves (including those raped by their owners). Of course, that never affected your property holdings.

  168. Wes says:

    Actually, Marv, I think Heller hangs on in NV while everything else goes as you say.

  169. Cash Cow TM says:

    “121,679 ballots had been cast Thursday morning and early voting doesn’t end until Saturday. In 2014, the last nonpresidential election year, there were 97,388 ballots casts during early voting.”
    ********************************************
    Then add in EV numbers from Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

    I rekon (guesstimate) it is a total of about 160,000.

  170. mnw says:

    I notice that the predictions of those of us who are writing about our OWN state are uniformly more optimistic than our predictions about places where we don’t actually live or vote.

    In that regard, all the bedwetting about MO SEN is misplaced, imo. Hawley will be fine.

    BF (hearts) Braun’s chances.

    Wes has upgraded his NC prediction in the GOP’s favor somewhat.

    Marv (hearts) FL, I think.

  171. DW says:

    DW Senate prediction:

    GOP flips ND, MO, and IN. Come very close but fall just short in MT and FL.

    Dems flip NV.

    GOP +2

  172. Wes says:

    For someone with a history degree, Bitter, you know nothing about the subject. Slavery ended in 1865. This is 2018. NC hasn’t had slaves in 153 years.

    Menendez, however, entered the Senate in 2006 and will be Senator at least through 2025.

    Maybe crack open a history book and study the subject sometime?

  173. Cash Cow TM says:

    “27 states + DC surpassed their 2014 total #earlyvote:

    AZ, DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, ME, MD, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NJ, NM, NV, OK, SC, TN, VA, WI, and WV

    1 state surpassed its 2014 total vote (early + Election Day):

    TX (in the 30 reporting counties)

  174. CG says:

    The one change I would make to my Senate predictions, in terms of who will win or lose, is that I have a hunch Heller loses now.

    I think Republicans are heavy favorites to flip North Dakota, and less so in Missouri and Indiana, but I will predict those go Republican. Missouri will probably stay Democrat slightly before Indiana will.

    McSally is in a Tossup but will predict a win. Tester is in a Tossup and I will predict he wins.

    Nelson may or may not be in a true Tossup, but I will say he wins.

  175. Marv says:

    #168 Todd McCain,

    If everything goes perfectly, then the GOP will hold all their current Senate seats and flip FL, IN, MO, ND and MT.
    That’s R+5 and very doable.

  176. phoenixrisen says:

    Agreed Wes, I am saying a stretch but the pollingnis all over the place and I am going big like I did in 2016. I think the likeliest sleepers to flip are WV and NJ. Democrats are extremely worried about Menendez and Manchin is in the fight of his life. By the way, RCP moved the WV race to toss-up this morning. So I made a speculative prediction.

    If I wanted to make a rational prediction, I would say the GOP picks up 4 thinking either Heller loses and we take MT or if Heller wins and Tester holds on. My House prediction remains the same. The GOP will hold the House

  177. CG says:

    For the House, I am less optimistic than I was a week ago about Roskam and Hultgren in Chicagoland. I think it is going to be a bloodbath against Republicans, but I hope to be wrong. I was wrong about Rauner in 2014 (but unfortunately won’t be this time)

  178. Jayhawker says:

    #166

    If you look at the early vote it is possible. If you come out to the mid west you get a whole different view of what is going on then you do on the coasts. From what I hear, MN is looking really really good for GOP.

    It actually makes more sense looking at hard data than poll numbers by firms that don’t know how to poll the states they are polling.

    Statistically at this point either the early numbers are off, meaning that more R’s crossover, or Indies break towards the D party that has been acting insane these last two years. OR the polls are off. I know which one I think to be true.

  179. phoenixrisen says:

    I don’t see how Gillum and Nelson win with these EV numbers and the GOP voters coming out in droves like they do in election day when the base is enthusiastic about voting

  180. Wes says:

    For Governors, I have Dems going +7 (NM, IA, WI, IL, MI, FL, and ME) while the GOP picks up one (AK).

  181. Albert Hodges says:

    Based on the overwhelming consensus here so far:

    Some causes for celebration:

    1) Hillary STILL isnt President
    2) No more Flakes, McCains or Corkers in the Senate and the pick up of at least 2 (I say 4) net GOP senators…enough to confirm ALL Trump judges AND to vote down ANY impeachment
    3) Dems MAY win the House (I say no) but if so by so few that they will have a hard time doing anything but showing themselves as total buffoons.

  182. Waingro says:

    #174, for some reason, I thought you were more bullish on the Senate, DW? Having said that, I will take an R+2. 53 seats is my bottom line for going into 2020.

  183. Todd McCain says:

    178. Definitely doable; the last day of EV though really screwed the GOP in Nevada. Heller is def not out of it though.

  184. Skippy says:

    #182

    It’s called INDY voters.

  185. Wes says:

    Had DeSantis run a competent campaign I’d say Gillum loses. Instead DeSantis started the GE with a gaffe and never truly defined his opponent.

  186. Marv says:

    #173 mnw,

    You are correct about my opinion here in FL.
    Scott and DeSantis will win and the GOP will hold FL-CD’s 26 & 27.

    (Even though I “heart” FL, I root for the Service Academy football teams….all four of them)

  187. Waingro says:

    “I don’t see how Gillum and Nelson win with these EV numbers and the GOP voters coming out in droves like they do in election day when the base is enthusiastic about voting”

    It’s all about the indies and a small section of anti-Trump absolutist registered “Republicans”. They hold the fate in many races, especially Florida.

  188. CG says:

    Updated Gubernatorial predictions tonight.

    I will say AK goes Republican, but that is a true Tossup now. Could go either way.

    In Iowa, I will say Reynolds hangs on.

    I predict Kobach loses in Kansas and probably changing my Tossup in Nevada towards the Democrat.

    No real sense at all about Ohio, with so little polling and so many undecided. I will stick with DeWine in a tossup.

    Conventional wisdom on the others. Georgia probably goes to a runoff.

  189. mnw says:

    I posted my own predictions at RRH just now, using my usual screen name “strawdog” there.

    I went “Larry Schweikart lite,” basically. GOP gains big in Senate & holds House narrowly. I find both LS’ logic & his track record very persuasive.

    I’m not going to repeat my predictions here, because I don’t want to appear on the same tote board with all the trolls.

    So, whoops, there it is.

  190. Wes says:

    Walker stayed past his sell-by date in WI and has trailed almost all polls. I don’t see how he hangs on.

  191. MikeP says:

    Hi gang,
    Here are my predictions.

    Senate: +5 for R’s

    House: -18 seats

    We hold the house, enthusiasm is the key for us

  192. Todd McCain says:

    Scott has won these types of races before though. GOP should win election day in Florida.

  193. phoenixrisen says:

    Bitter, I predicted Trump would win with 307 EV in 2016 here on this blog. I was one off. What’s wrong making a bold prediction. It’s fun. And according to Rasmussen’s generic that came out this morni g showing GOP +1 you would have to think maybe this prediction isn’t so off base.

  194. Todd McCain says:

    Official Predictions:

    GOP + 3 in Senate (IN, MO, ND and MT — Dean Heller loses)

    House + 22 for Dems; GOP hangs on by 1.

  195. MichiganGuy says:

    Predictions.
    .
    Senate pickups (R) 56-44
    .
    North Dakota – definitely
    Indiana – high confidence
    Missouri – likely
    Florida – hopeful
    Montana – going out on a limb
    .
    Republicans hold all seats
    .
    House 219 – 216 Republicans hold
    .
    Governor pickups (R)
    .
    Alaska – hopeful
    Oregon – going out on a limb
    .
    Republicans lose
    .
    New Mexico
    Michigan
    Maine
    Illinois

  196. Wes says:

    I hope I’m wrong about Rick Scott.

  197. DW says:

    DW House prediction:

    Dems need to flip a net of 23 seats in the house to gain control. Here is my current prediction:

    Flips from R to D: PA_05, PA_06, PA_07, PA_17, NJ_02, NJ_07, NJ_11, NY_19, CA_10, CA_45, CA_49, VA_10, AZ_02, IA_01, IA_03, IL_06, CO_06, MI_11, MN_02, MN_03, KS_03, FL_27, MI_08 and ME_02 – 24 flips.

    Flips from D to R: PA_14, MN_01, MN_08, and AZ_01 = 4 flips

    Net = D+20

    Dems 3 short of capturing control.

    –I might make a few last minute changes if any new data comes in today. But honestly I have never felt this uncertain in long time and I have been doing this for years.

    There is much conflicting data, but my sense is that seats that traditionally lean toward a party are going to hold firm on both sides (no blue wave, no red wave), but the competitive seats in the middle are going to tilt slightly toward the Dems, except for where the GOP candidate has been 1) a quality candidate (TX_23), 2) has campaigned hard (NC_09), and/or 3) drawn a mediocre opponent (PA_01).

    There are a lot of moving parts, but there will no doubt be many forecasters with egg on their faces for quite a number of races as the forecasts have been assuming a blue-wave all year, and nothing in the data signifies that a blue-wave will happen tomorrow. Dems could capture house control, but not by much.

    My hope and expectation is that the recent good economic data will push late deciders in the GOP direction. Some here have said they have seen that late shift in the data, but I am not seeing anything strong yet either way.

  198. CG says:

    The main difference would be that Scott has never run against an incumbent before.

  199. CG says:

    An even bigger difference is that Scott has never run in a year where there was not a “Red Wave” nationally.

  200. mnw says:

    DW

    No matter what happens, sincerest thanks for all your fine research & good work.

    RE: MT SEN

    The Change Research poll last night showing Rosendale ahead is probably fool’s gold. Same outfit has TX SEN tied.

  201. Todd McCain says:

    Trafalgar MO:

    Hawley +5

  202. DW says:

    185 – I could be wrong. I was half tempted to just predict the GOP wins these in the senate:

    ND, MO, IN, MT and WV – all the states where the Trump base can make the difference, and then GOP loses NV, FL, while barely holding on in AZ. But if I had to rank states in the order of the dumbest voters, it would be:

    1) WV
    2) IA
    3) MT

  203. Marv says:

    Wes,

    You seem to be dismissing the GOP strength the FL EV/VBM ballots and the expected GOP Election Day win. The GOP has a history of Election Day wins and I have no reason to doubt that it will happen again.

    If I’m overlooking something, I would be glad to hear your opinion.

  204. Gil says:

    As the reigning prediction champ from the 2016 Presidential election, here is the final results.

    US Senate GOP 55
    Dem 43
    Ind 02

    US House GOP 219
    Dem 213

    And all of the predictions not having independents in the US Senate are going to be off by two.

  205. DW says:

    We never did get any recent polling of MN_02, MN_03, and MN_07.

    MN_02 and MN_03 were declared ‘done’ after the Siena polls, and we never did get a good poll of MN_07 at all.

  206. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Attached is the results analysis of the Alliance polls from 2016. Please notice that in 2016, the turnout model that was the closest was a strong republican turnout. The question is whether the turnout model is going to repeat 2016 or be closer to a strong democrat turnout or a neutral turnout.

    We will know late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

    Frank

    https://www.allianceesapoll.com/new-poll-results.html

  207. Wes says:

    I see what you’re saying, Marv, but since Nelson has begun campaigning seriously, he’s moved slightly ahead of Scott. For that reason—plus DeSantis’ giving the Left a reason to turn out—I think Nelson barely hangs on.

  208. Wes says:

    As I say I hope I’m wrong, and Nelson falls.

  209. Bitterlaw says:

    If Wes ever opened a book he would not be an apologist for the Confederacy or view slavery as a “wrong” rather than pure evil.

    I have not lived in New Jersey since 1994 but Wes is not very bright and blames me for Menendez.

  210. Marv says:

    Wes,

    Ok, thanks.

  211. Marv says:

    #207 Gil,

    Whatever your prediction is, the total has to be 435. Right now your total is 432.

  212. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Will stay with my original prediction.

    2-3 Republican seat gain in the Senate
    20-30 seat Democratic gain in the House.

    Both Republican and Democratic voters are motivated, so a hard election to predict.

    The Senate race in Nevada is too close to call; it will be a squeaker. Romney in Utah will win with 63-65% of the vote.

  213. DW says:

    Here is my analysis and commentary on poll closing times. The idea is anticipate what the early results tell us and how soon the race for Congressional Control will be officially called.

    *indicates only a portion of the state closed, with the rest closing in the next hour due to time zones. Some states are called on the first hour, most are not.

    All times are EDT:

    >> 6:00 pm:

    IN*, KY*

    Some forecasters want to believe IN_02 and IN_09 are just likely R. They probably will both go strongly GOP, but lacking predictive value for the rest of the country.

    The big race this hour is KY_06, ranked a pure tossup by all forecasters. This will be the first early indication as to the direction of the evening.

    As to the senate, obviously Indiana will be right at the center of attention. Should Donnelly prevail, it would keep Democrat hopes alive for takeover, but if Braun wins, then GOP may likely be declared holding the senate.

    >> 7:00 pm:

    FL*, GA, SC, VT, VA

    Florida is split into two time zones but results should quickly come in at the 7 pm close in several key districts including FL_26 and FL_27. Several other seats are ranked Likely R, and would warrant a glace. The same goes for GA_06 and GA_07, both expected to be a close race.

    Also closely watched will be VA_02, VA_05, VA_07 and VA_10. The way these go will be an early indication as to the direction of the whole evening. If the GOP can get by with only losing VA_10, then their hopes of retaining the house are still intact. Any of those others flip and its likely over.

    The big senate race in Florida will also be watched carefully, and not likely be called until late into the night.

    >> 7:30 pm:

    NC, OH, WV

    NC_02, NC_09, and NC_13, along with OH_01, OH_12, and WV_03 will be carefully watched for possible flips from R to D. If the Dems come up empty, on top of earlier misses in VA, FL, and KY, then it could contribute to a growing sense that they are not going to get house control.

    The race to unseat Manchin will be watched, as a test of Trump’s rural strength nationally.

    >> 8:00 pm:

    CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, MI*, NH, NJ, PA, RI, TN, AL, FL, IL, KS, MS, MO, OK, SD*, TX*

    House races to start tracking at this hour: ME_02 (which will take hours to count), MI_08, MI_11, NH_01 (see note on ME_02), NJ_03, NJ_07, NJ_11, PA_01, PA_07, PA_10, IL_06, IL_12, IL_13, IL_14, KS_02, KS_03, TX_07, and TX_32

    Senate races to start watching include TN, MO and TX.

    >> 8:30 pm:

    AR

    AR_02 is a pipe dream for Democrats.

    >> 9:00 pm:

    NY, LA, MI, MN, NE, WI, AZ, CO, KS*, NM, SD, TX, WY

    Another large cache of house races added to the list of those to track: NY_01, NY_11, NY_19, NY_22, NY_27, MN_01, MN_02, MN_03, MN_07, MN_08, AZ_01, CO_06, NM_02, and TX_23

    For the senate: AZ

    >> 10:00 pm:

    IA, ND*, ID*, MT, OR*, UT, NV

    House: IA_01, IA_03, UT_04, NV_03, NV_04, MT_01

    Senate: MT, NV, ND

    >> 11:00 pm:

    ND, CA, ID, OR, WA, HI

    House: CA_10, CA_25, CA_39, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, CA_50, WA_05, WA_08

  214. Wes says:

    Hey, Bitter, I know this is outside your scope of knowledge , but the Confederacy lost 153 years ago. It’s over. It’s done. I don’t think about it unless someone brings it up because I have more contemporary things to worry about.

    You on the other hand idolize a state that has a child molester representing it in Washington and only consider antebellum slavery evil while having nothing bad to say about contemporary slavery (because you can’t use the modern variety as an outlet for your rabid anti-Southern bigotry).

    What has a bit more contemporary effect on us—a child-molesting crook of a Senator who should be in Leavenworth or the sins of people who were long dead before I was born?

  215. Albert Hodges says:

    Pennsylvania, the state built on the backs of slaves.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_slavery_in_Pennsylvania

  216. GeorgeIllinois says:

    Just checked early voting number for Illinois. The total is 1,135,050 closer to 2016 than 2014. Here’s how it breaks out regionally:

    City of Chicago 19%
    Rest of Cook County 14%
    Collar Counties 29%
    Rest of State 38%

    Don’t know what this means, but two thirds of the voters so far are in suburban collar counties and Downstate. I expect Rauner to lose–big. But for the rest of the down ticket races, who knows?

  217. Waingro says:

    The back and forths between Wes and Bitter are always entertaining. I wish I had some popcorn ready.

  218. DW says:

    Heard about the Morning Consult Generic ballot poll earlier this morning, only now getting back to check on it. While the Rasmussen R+1 poll was 2,500 likely voters, the Morning Consult was 1,961 Registered Voters, and at just 40R / 43D, there is a lot of undecided left on the table.

  219. Gil says:

    Thanks Marv, I hit the wrong button.

    US Senate GOP 55
    Dem 43
    Ind 02

    US House GOP 219
    Dem 216

  220. Redmen4ever says:

    I thought I’d identify my state calls and my reasoning:

    Senate: 55Rs to 45Ds (D to R flips FL, IN, MO, ND)
    House: 218Rs to 217Ds

    Among the four toss-up states: AZ – EV; IN – last minute L to R shift and break of undecideds; FL, NV – EV relative to prior years (I’m more hopeful than bullish about these two)

    House seats: My bullishness stems from six measures of problems with the polls:

    (1) large number of undecideds (= shy Trumpeters)
    (2) difference between live-caller polls and IVR and internet-based polls (ditto, shy Trumpeters)
    (3) high correlation of turnout advantage with Cook’s ratings of Congressional Districts in AZ and CA (the only states I could get these data) (this is called “paradata” in the literature)
    (4) cross-tabs by early voter / likely voter in polls where available
    (5) the ridiculousness of Q, CNN/USSR, NBC/Marxist, DormLife, etc.
    (6) the wild swings of many polls, including some of our polls, indicating that this is a tough environment in which to poll

  221. DW says:

    I still wonder how much the NY-Times/Siena gimmick is going to be off given the fact that in all 7 of the competitive house seats they polled in 2014 and 2016, they were tilted toward the D. All 7 of them. I doubt their relationship with the NY Times tilted them back to the right.

  222. DW says:

    And tomorrow we find out if James Carville’s statement, ‘Its the economy stupid’ will hold up.

  223. Phil says:

    DW, I have really enjoyed your work on the House races. Great effort at keeping up with the multitude of polls. Great job. As far as your prediction it’s based on a lot of actual data so any prediction by me isn’t going to carry as much weight as yours. Anyway, the only race I have any first hand knowledge on is Tx 7 which, I’m sad to say is going to flip so that’s one I believe you have wrong. Just no effort by Culberson at all to keep a very winnable race. I’m still not set on a final number in the House. I’ll ponder it some more today. Anyway, well done my friend.

  224. DW says:

    Phil, I feel your pain in terms of effort as I live in VA_02. Scott Taylor has been much the same. I sent an e-mail to their campaign web site a month ago to sign up as a volunteer. Never heard back from them. But I still think Taylor will win. As to TX_07, I realize it is close. But Siena polled it twice, and twice found a narrow R lead. I am thinking in the end Siena will be found to have a moderate D tilt to their polling. Even PPP-D polled the race for the D candidate and found it only D+2.

    So TX_07 sounds to me like a 50/48 sort of race with the R winning.

  225. gameboy says:

    Senate: GOP pick up 4 seats
    House: 223 in the hands of the GOP when all said and done.

    #223 218 will never happen. Dems would never allow it as they always have a stack of ballots in a truck somewhere they will pull out if need be the case if things are that close.

    FL: I find it hard to believe that folks in here think Gillum has a chance. Is a state with a center-right tradition really going to vote for a guy who wants to raise corporate taxes to 40%, calls for an end to ICE, and doesn’t hide his hostility for law enforcement??

    NJ: Will they really elect a pedifile to the Senate??

    You gotta believe common sense will prevail in some of these races.

  226. DW says:

    But as to the senate, it would not surprise me at all if the Trump base was missed in the polling as it was in 2016. On election night coverage, one commentator remarked that they were all hiding in plain sight. Nobody wanted to see them, and they didn’t show up in polling. If that happens again, then we could be looking at flips in ND, IN, MO, MT and WV, with a very close R loss in MI. At the same time FL might not flip, and GOP could lose NV and AZ. Anyone who says they know what’s going to happen is a liar, or a good guesser.

  227. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks Frank. The data does verify one thing. The party who wins is solidly more enthusiastic and what turns it into a wave is strong indie support. Don’t see that for the Dems this election.

  228. lisab says:

    BOOM!

    https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Lower-Merion-Explosion-499587231.html

    I heard this from my house last night. Fortunately, nobody was injured.
    ————————————-

    gas leak destroys 9000 sf home

    do you know what never explodes like that? almost any other way to heat your house.

    with a 9000 sf home it must be a hillary supporter

  229. jaichind says:

    There is a problem with the Morning Consulting poll
    https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/181064_crosstabs_POLITICO_Registered-Voters_v1_ML-2.pdf

    It is PID R+4 sample. Worse PID R will vote 77-6 for GOP candidate while PID D will vote 89-4 for Dem candidate. It seems that there are possible significant defections from PID R voters over to the Dem candidate.

  230. lisab says:

    The media has to much invested to change course now especially fake news CNN and NBC. If they are wrong you can bet President Trump will screwer them for doing fake polls along with fake news also.
    —————————

    most likely they will claim they were in the margin of error

    the trolls all claimed that the polls were all within the margin of error for 2016

  231. Wes says:

    Game boy, DeSantis could have defined Gillum that way and won. Instead, DeSantis has made the race about his gaffes and hurt himself. As far as Menendez, it’s NJ. The Bitterlaws of the world are content with sending corrupt child molesters to the Senate so long as they have seasons.

  232. phoenixrisen says:

    #232 Could be Democratic voters identifying themselves as GOP voters in the polling call. We must assume that people never lie when polled (said in fun sarcasm)

  233. John says:

    Henry Olsen of the NRO has his predictions…
    Senate…R’s 52 (ND, MO and IN but loses NV and AZ)
    House….D’ 226 for a gain of 32

    The reason…payback time for RINOs that can’t stand Trump’s GOP.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/midterm-elections-republicans-tainted-by-rinos/

  234. DW says:

    “The reason…payback time for RINOs that can’t stand Trump’s GOP.”

    The trouble is, who are these people? Its a group that is assumed to exist, but do they?

    All the Never-Trumpers that I know are voting straight-line GOP. The Kavanaugh hearings brought in the remaining wobbly ones.

    I even know a hard-core Paulbot who is voting straight R this year.

  235. lisab says:

    senate: gop + 3
    house: gop – 31 (the average)

  236. mnw says:

    I have a lot of respect for Henry Olsen, but AZ? With all those EVs already in?

  237. Albert Hodges says:

    236:

    NeverTrumpers couldnt stop Trump in 2016. There are less neverTrumpers today than then.

    President Trump has a more unified GOP party than any Republican President going back to Nixon.

  238. Albert Hodges says:

    Exactly right, DW.

  239. CG says:

    While this NeverTrump person is voting Republican this year, I am not nor have I ever been a “RINO.” That term is much more apt for Trump and his ilk who entered the GOP and moved it towards populism.

    However, there certainly are past Republican voters like MD and Author, (just to name people we may be familiar with here), who are now aligned with Democrats, even if it may be a temporary alliance. Are they “RINOS?” Were they ever? That can be debated forever but the bottom-line is that Trump had the effect of driving them out of the party and they have given up trying to influence it anymore. There are lots of these people out there in the suburbs and elsewhere. Some of them voted for Hillary Clinton two years ago (such as some of your spouses) and even many who did not are still very anti-Trump and that may be manifested in the mid-terms in areas where Trump has not been nor ever will be popular.

  240. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    231. “gas leak destroys 9000 sf home do you know what never explodes like that? almost any other way to heat your house.”

    Really? Suppose you have never heard of a fire caused by faulty electric wiring.

  241. lisab says:

    GOP will win all the very close races where they are only down 2-3 points in the MSM polls.

    + 4 in the Senate, – 20 in the House. (jason)
    ———————————————

    that would be epic!

    i hope this happens. i hope mcsally wins. i would love to see the cnn, msnbc, abc, cbs, nbc etc reporters cry again

  242. Tina says:

    Has the socialist on the Lido Deck given us his count yet?

  243. lisab says:

    Traditionally, my predictions wind up being slightly more optimistic for Republicans than the actual results. (coery)
    —————————-

    actually corey was the second to worst in 2016. only cory the canadian was more off on the number of evs hillary/trump would win

  244. lisab says:

    North Carolina is too far and drenched in the blood of slaves (including those raped by their owners).
    —————–

    north carolina has slaves?

  245. DW says:

    There is the old saying, that if you want to find the losers, see who is doing the most splainin’

    1) Two weeks ago 538 started the idea that its the fundraising that is the most important metric.

    2) Then they switched to saying early GOP voters coming out in huge numbers were pushing Dems out of the way to vote Dem, not GOP, so that blue-wave polls are right given this assumption. That one didn’t last.

    3) So they switched to the youth vote will come out to save the Dems.

    4) Now its back to the blue-wave being saved by CNN and LA Times polling, and unfinished weekend Siena house polling.

    There is no doubt some ‘splainin’ going on among the GOP apologists too, but overall it seems to be the Dems doing more of it.

  246. Tina says:

    Faux News pulls caravan ad.

    Mediate

    Cn and no and faux took the bait.

  247. Todd McCain says:

    But hey, Heller could also pull through too. He isn’t out of it.

  248. marc says:

    MD and Author went full Nicole Wallace and crossed over into the enemy camp? How sad.

  249. Tina says:

    5h
    President Donald Trump, Thank you for Making The Ayatollahs Scared Again. @realDonaldTrump #IranSanctions
    View details ·

  250. lisab says:

    (Even though I “heart” FL, I root for the Service Academy football teams….all four of them) marv
    —————————-

    there are actually FIVE service academies

  251. DW says:

    251 – one thing is for sure, if, and its a big IF that is true, it would never show up in polling.

  252. DW says:

    I am a bit concerned about the IBD/TIPP generic ballot poll showing D+9.

    However, it ranged from 10/25 through 11/3. It was only 798 likely voters. I would like to see what whey got the last half of that poll.

  253. Scooterboy says:

    Schweikart now hedging a little in Florida.

    Now saying that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Scott win by 2-3, and Gillum also win, based on what he’s hearing.

  254. phoenixrisen says:

    #255 — Yes. GOP is always in single digit support from blacks. If that gets into the double digits then the Dems have an impossible problem on their hands.

  255. lisab says:

    But as to the senate, it would not surprise me at all if the Trump base was missed in the polling as it was in 2016. On election night coverage, one commentator remarked that they were all hiding in plain sight.
    ———————–

    the thing is, if robbie was your neighbor … would you honestly say you were a trump supporter

    i would almost guarantee your car would get keyed

  256. Waingro says:

    Schweikart now hedging on FL.

    “Will NOT surprise me to see Scott win by 2-3 and Gillum’s Island to win, based on what I’m hearing.

    Gillum’s Island is drawing a lot of white virtue signaling women who also are voting Scott.”

  257. lisab says:

    Suppose you have never heard of a fire caused by faulty electric wiring.
    ———————

    fire? sure

    EXPLOSION … not so much

  258. Scooterboy says:

    Mind boggling to think that many people could vote for someone like Gillum.
    Very unfortunate.

  259. Bitterlaw says:

    Poor Wes. The doctors must have missed that head injury he sustained in the car accident years ago. I idolize a state that to move out of in 1994? I am responsible for Democrat Senator I never voted for in a place where I don’t live? That is a special kind of stupidity. Wes is very intelligent. Except when he is not.

  260. Tina says:

    Barrie with the facts on Az

    View conversation ·
    Richard Baris Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    7m
    Overall, Median Age in AZ is 62. Appx. 80% by mail already near 1.5M overall in the bank, and it was R+116,009. Not a younger electorate. It’s 2014 bloated. 41.8% GOP. 33.9% and 23.6% independent. (R+8). Median age for independent EV is 56.6. She needs historic indy support. twitter.com/ElectProject/s…
    View

  261. Scooterboy says:

    260. Waingro…quit trying to steal my thunder.
    I don’t normally get to break many tweets around here.

  262. lisab says:

    http://www.messickstove.com/products/ds-machine-stoves–furnaces/wood–coal-stoves/comfortmax-75/index.html

    get your nice coal stove at the link above

    guaranteed NOT to explode if you use it as directed

  263. phoenixrisen says:

    Good grief, RRH is an epic troll site. Lots of wishcasting going on there based on assumptions, not hard data. Sure my prediction here might be a stretch, but it is based on current hard data.

  264. Tina says:

    Az is 2014 bloated,

    Very popular governor at top of the ticket helps.

    Barris

  265. mnw says:

    260 WG

    Yes, a bit.

  266. Albert Hodges says:

    As disgusted as I would be to see Gillum and Abrams elected as governors in their state, if I could see Nelson, Hedikamp, McCaskill, Donnelly and Tester lose, I would take that is a minute.

    I want PDJT to totally appoint prolife, profamily judges and get Amy Barrett on SCOTUS. Would be worth the price.

  267. Tina says:

    plying to @Peoples_Pundit
    Obama went on to lose AZ indies to Romney by nearly the same margin he had previously carried them against McCain, 51% to 45%. Trump carried indies in AZ, 47% to 44%. Flake won them by just 46% to 45%.

  268. Tina says:

    Baris on fl

    Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    3m
    Replying to @sfbjax @Barnes_Law
    Sure did. And Rick Scott LOST the indie vote 46% to 44% to Charlie Crist, and still won in 2014. The electorate “looks” a lot like 2014, only in bigger numbers.

  269. lisab says:

    imo, the worst gop loss would be fl gov.

    fl could go into a death spiral

  270. hugh says:

    If Gilligan wins the worst part about his winning would be appointment of judges. Other than that he will get absolutely nothing he wants. That in itself is bad enough.

  271. gameboy says:

    #273 Couldn’t agree more. A Gillum victory would be worse than the if the GOP lost the house. I just refuse to believe the guy is going to win given his documented corruption, openly communist/socialist leanings, historical FL voting patterns, etc. Very bad sign for the country if this guy can win in FL.

  272. lisab says:

    im jus worried fl could go from the happiest place on earth to

    california.

    a lot of people live there specifically for the low taxes. if he screws that up, there would be an exodus, starting with the military, and would leace just a lot of unemployed giant mice

  273. Waingro says:

    #265, sorry, scooter! I should have scrolled up.

  274. hugh says:

    What really hurt desantis is that he primary opponent went full negative and really made desantis look bad. Lots of ads. the guy must have spent a bundle. he came in wounded and never fully recovered.

  275. hugh says:

    if he raised income taxes in fl. btw he cant even if he wanted to dems would not win another election for 8 years.

  276. jason says:

    I see the NYT agrees with me.

    They have a headline “Dem ballot advantage might not translate into seats” or something of the kind.

    The Dems are going to “waste” a lot of votes in places like CA, NY, and IL so a D +7 nationally might not be that great in competitive races elsewhere.

    Basically the NYT article says the same thing.

  277. Waingro says:

    “The trouble is, who are these people? Its a group that is assumed to exist, but do they?

    All the Never-Trumpers that I know are voting straight-line GOP. The Kavanaugh hearings brought in the remaining wobbly ones.

    I even know a hard-core Paulbot who is voting straight R this year.”

    There are a very small group of who I call righty anti-Trump absolutists, who intend to vote (or outwardly support voting) straight ticket Dem due to TDS. People like Rubin, Navarro, Max Boot and former hedgehogger, AuthorLMendez.

    But like I said, it’s a very small group that thinks more highly of their influence then it actually is.

    If you go onto the Twitter replies of Rubin and Boot etc., the people ra ra cheering them on are mostly just plain liberal dems. This is not a “movement” that is picking up steam among traditional republicans and conservatives.

    It mainly comes down to pure indies and some left leaning moderate Dems as to some of these key races.

  278. Waingro says:

    It would indeed be very depressing to see Gillum win in FL, but I would begrudgingly take a split ticket vote if it meant Scott wins. A Florida sweep by the Dems would/will be a disaster.

  279. Marv says:

    #254 lisab,

    There are five Federal Academies. The Federal Academies are the four Service Academies and the US Merchant Marine Academy.

  280. hugh says:

    fwiw

    FL EV update 1pm 11/5 — Not much change from 10am. That’s good news for Rs. Dem lead at 24.5k, a touch down. I’m doubting it even reaches my conservative guess of 30k, but I don’t mind being pleasantly surprised. Rs’ve got this. They just need to go vote tomorrow.

  281. jason says:

    Some of them voted for Hillary Clinton two years ago (such as some of your spouses)”

    The only spouse I know of that voted for Hillary was MD’s.

    The fact is all Never Trumpers/didn’t vote for Trump here now support Trump or most of Trump’s policies, the only ones that don’t are the two Jebbots still pining for Jeb.

  282. lisab says:

    There are five Federal Academies. The Federal Academies are the four Service Academies and the US Merchant Marine Academy.
    ——————————

    yes Marv,

    i pointed that out to you. you wrote there were four academies.

  283. Robbie says:

    You know it’s a rough day for One Trick Pony Don when even FoxNews won’t run his racist immigration ad.

  284. Waingro says:

    Sorry but this guy at RRH is cracking me up. Gotta be a parody account. Too funny.

    “valibertarian01 November 5, 2018 at 1:33 pm | In reply to VastBlightKingConspiracy

    Yep. If Trump loses in 2020 it’s over. It’s over for not only the GOP, but conservatism in general. GA will be a blue state, as will AZ. VA will be as blue as MD, and TX will be close to blue. FL will likely be blue as well.

    If they pack the courts, which they’ll likely do because there will be no more chance of opposition, in 2021 it’s over for conservatism and we might as well call ourselves the United States of Europe.

    It’s incredibly depressing to think about. Trump’s win was fun, but it likely was the last one ever.”

  285. jason says:

    At one point during the 2016 campaign I did worry my wife might vote for Hillary, but she told me that as much as she didn’t like Trump that was a bridge too far. She despises the Clintons with a passion.

    But now she is like me, the thinks the MSM has not given Trump a fair shake and she might vote for him next time around.

  286. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 5, 2018 at 12:42 pm
    senate: gop + 3
    house: gop – 31 (the average)

    – Trump could crap runny diarrhea into a cup and drink it and lisab would find a way to say it was within reason for him to do. By the way, how’s the surefire lawsuit you said trump would win over his transition emails doing?

    Losing 30 or more seats is a wave, especially when you consider what is going to happen in the governor’s races, and it will be the result of Trump’s behavior as president. No other president with the economy we have would be talking about the kinds of losses.

  287. jason says:

    I see nothing racist in the immigration ad.

    Nothing, nada.

    The Dems ran much worse ads against Romney and McCain and Trump.

  288. Wes says:

    High, while the primary did him no favors, DeSantis hurt himself out of the gate with the “monkeying around” gaffe. (While I know what DeSantis meant, a more astute pol would have and should have avoided something the media could characterize as vaguely racist in the wake of Macaca.) After the remark, DeSantis then did little if anything to define Gillum and never broke through in the race.

    I wish it were otherwise, but DeSantis has simply been a poor candidate who never properly defined his radical opponent.

  289. Robbie says:

    Albert Hodges says:
    November 5, 2018 at 12:42 pm
    236:
    NeverTrumpers couldnt stop Trump in 2016. There are less neverTrumpers today than then.
    President Trump has a more unified GOP party than any Republican President going back to Nixon.

    – NeverTrump is a Twitter hashtag and little else, but every movement needs its scapegoats so the Trumpers claim a few cable hosts on MSNBC represent a real movement.

  290. Tina says:

    @esaagar
    32m
    TRUMP when asked if his immigration ad is offensive: “A lot of things are offensive…your questions are offensive a lot of times”

  291. jason says:

    . No other president with the economy we have would be talking about the kinds of losses.”

    BS

    A 30 seat loss is average for midterms, good economy or not.

    Amoral Scumbag as usual is trying to fit the facts into his narrative, failing miserably.

  292. Barrett says:

    House – 222 Dems, 213 Reps
    Senate – 47 Dems, 53 Reps

    Hogan wins with greater than 54% of the vote

  293. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 5, 2018 at 1:12 pm
    But as to the senate, it would not surprise me at all if the Trump base was missed in the polling as it was in 2016. On election night coverage, one commentator remarked that they were all hiding in plain sight.
    ———————–
    the thing is, if robbie was your neighbor … would you honestly say you were a trump supporter
    i would almost guarantee your car would get keyed

    – If you were my neighbor, it would mean I lived next to a sanitorium.

  294. Wes says:

    Jason, in the minds of the JEB! worshippers, any attempt to curb ILLEGAL immigration is racist.

  295. lisab says:

    the average loss is 31 house seats

    if you want to characterize that as a wave, that is fine,

    it happens to also be the average loss of house seats in a midterm.

    math does not lie or play favourites. the average is the average.

  296. jason says:

    o the Trumpers claim a few cable hosts on MSNBC represent a real movement.”

    LOL

    How about CNN, ABC, NYT, LA Times, USA Today, PBS, CBS, 60 Minutes, The View, and every late night show and every news hour and just about any media on the airwaves or in print.

    99% Trump bashing for 2 straight years.

    If you didn’t agree with their message you would incensed , but since you do you think its ok.

    Which makes you a lying Amoral Scumbag fraud.

  297. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 1:55 pm
    Some of them voted for Hillary Clinton two years ago (such as some of your spouses)”
    The only spouse I know of that voted for Hillary was MD’s.
    The fact is all Never Trumpers/didn’t vote for Trump here now support Trump or most of Trump’s policies, the only ones that don’t are the two Jebbots still pining for Jeb.

    – Death, taxes, and Jason fraud lying like the prissy little b!tch he is.

    I supported the tax cuts, judges, and Obamcare repeal. And just like you, I opposed the asinine trade wars. Unlike you, I didn’t compromise my view Trump is a scummy person who screwed a porn star just because he beat Hillary. Now go back to dreaming about sucking Liddle Marco’s dong.

  298. Scooterboy says:

    285. Yep….I will be voting straight Republican. The stakes are too high.
    My wife and son are also voting straight R ticket.

  299. jason says:

    The fact Amoral Scumbag calls the immigration ad, which is 100% factual, “racist” show how far his TDS has gone.

  300. lisab says:

    the average standard deviation is about 23 seats btw,

    so the gop would have to lose fewer than 8 or more than 54 to have strong evidence the gop is doing worse than average in these mid-terms.

  301. Marv says:

    #286 lisab,

    I wrote that I root for the four Service Academies.
    I also root for the Merchant Marine Academy, but it is not
    a Service Academy.

  302. jason says:

    I didn’t compromise my view Trump is a scummy person who screwed a porn star”

    LOL

    After 2 years, that is the best you can do against Trump, huh?

    Trump has 100 times more integrity than you will ever have, and he is certainly no saint.

  303. CG says:

    Jeb Bush has been out campaigning for Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in his home state. They have asked for his help and he has given it to them.

    The Florida GOP nominees need the votes of people who might be persuaded more by a Jeb Bush type Republican than a Donald Trump type Republican at this point. DeSantis did all humanely possible ass-kissing to Trump in the primary. It says a lot about Jeb Bush that he is still willing to publicly campaign for DeSantis.

    The overall concept that any principled opposition of Donald Trump by Republicans is somehow tied to Jeb Bush, with no other factor, is of course ridiculous and indicative of somebody having no other idea how to argue.

  304. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:05 pm
    . No other president with the economy we have would be talking about the kinds of losses.”
    BS
    A 30 seat loss is average for midterms, good economy or not.
    Amoral Scumbag as usual is trying to fit the facts into his narrative, failing miserably.

    – Lying scumbag Jason fraud is stupid. This isn’t the 1940’s, the 1950’s, the 1960’s, the 1970’s, or even the 1980’s when the country was dominated by Democrats at all levels of government except the presidency.

    Since 1994, the Republican Party has become the dominate party at the local, state, and federal level. No president would be in line to lose 30 seats with this economy. The only reason Trump is set to lose so many seats is he’s spent the last 22 months acting like he just broke free from the nuthouse.

  305. lisab says:

    A 30 seat loss is average for midterms, good economy or not.
    —————————-

    it is sad that he is so filled with hate that he cannot admit what the average is

  306. Tina says:

    Of concern is faux news joining with cn and n and banning an ad because of the bogus, racist charge.

    Seems like trump scored a direct hit and the media wants to cover up.

    Also, proves his point about a fake media.

  307. jason says:

    Jason, in the minds of the JEB! worshippers, any attempt to curb ILLEGAL immigration is racist.”

    Yep, which is exactly the MSM’s view.

    What a coincidence.

  308. CG says:

    In regards to “historic average” nobody has bothered to answer the factors involving

    1. The districts are far drawn to be far less competitive than they were in the 70s, 80s, 90s, etc.

    2. In the past, Presidents who have won by landslides have seen “fluke winners” who came in on their coattails swept out in midterms.

    Nobody is even trying to make a case why those things do not matter in this cycle. This “historical average” argument is old news. It no longer applies

    We can see though in terms of first-term midterms of the last two Presidents, Trump will do better than Obama and far worse than George W. Bush.

  309. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:07 pm
    Jason, in the minds of the JEB! worshippers, any attempt to curb ILLEGAL immigration is racist.

    – Good to see Wes is adopting the Jason fraud’s tactics of just lie, lie, lie.

    There’s a big difference between border security and enforcing immigration laws and defaming all immigrants as Mad King Don and his slobbering worshipers do.

    Next thing you know is Wes will be supporting NYCmike’s call to pass the RAISE Act that reduces immigration.

  310. Chicon says:

    Lisa, math is racist.

  311. lisab says:

    from the kings point web site

    “The United States Merchant Marine Academy is a federal service academy that educates and graduates leaders of exemplary character who are inspired to serve the national security, marine transportation, and economic needs of the United States as licensed Merchant Marine Officers and commissioned officers in the Armed Forces.

  312. Phil says:

    It still cracks me up that somehow controlling the borders is racist.

    Reach much?

  313. jason says:

    This isn’t the 1940’s, the 1950’s, the 1960’s, the 1970’s, or even the 1980’s”

    LOL, Amoral Scumbag IS a clown.

    Translation: let me “revise History” because History does not support my position.

    I love this place, whenever you think someone cannot say something more stupid Amoral Scumbag will step up to the plate.

  314. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    11m
    Replying to @Peoples_Pundit
    The update in Arizona certainly didn’t hurt Sinema. But it didn’t change much. Not the overall look of the electorate, and party ID goes from GOP 41.8% to 41.4%. Democrats remained 33.9% of the overall electorate. Indies tick up slightly to 23.9%. R+118648, up from 112K-plus.
    View conversation ·

    This appears to be an Az update.

    2014 on roids.

    Rs lead by almost 119000

    Emma would have to win 75 percent of the Is to win.

  315. lisab says:

    “Jeb Bush has been out campaigning for Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in his home state.”
    ——————————–

    it’s over … florida is lost

  316. Tina says:

    Controlling the borders is racist.

    -Jebot

  317. NYCmike says:

    US Senate GOP 56
    Dem 42
    Ind 02

    US House GOP 220
    Dem 215

  318. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:08 pm
    the average loss is 31 house seats
    if you want to characterize that as a wave, that is fine,
    it happens to also be the average loss of house seats in a midterm.
    math does not lie or play favourites. the average is the average.

    – The math is skewed and you know it because it includes results from the telegram era.

    Pick your favorite Republican from 2016 other than Trump. If that person was president today and had this economy and no major wars being fought, Republicans would be talking about a 10 seat loss, maybe 15.

  319. NYCmike says:

    “Next thing you know is Wes will be supporting NYCmike’s call to pass the RAISE Act that reduces immigration.”

    -Eventually, the party will make a deal with Cotton-Perdue…the numbers for LEGAL IMMIGRATION will be a simple negotiating point, as I have said for over a year now.

  320. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:15 pm
    Jason, in the minds of the JEB! worshippers, any attempt to curb ILLEGAL immigration is racist.”
    Yep, which is exactly the MSM’s view.
    What a coincidence.

    – I guess it took Trump to make Jason fraud an immigration deadender like NYCmike. I guess the fraud will now be a RAISE Act supporter.

  321. Wes says:

    No president would be in line to lose 30 seats with this economy.

    What about Woodrow Wilson and Warren Harding?

  322. Phil says:

    Immigration is the same as illegal immigration.

    What morons. Worse, they think we are moronic enough to not know the distinction.

  323. jason says:

    Zzzzz…

    I was always against ILLEGAL immigration here.

    Always.

    But Amoral Scumbag knows that.

  324. NYCmike says:

    “Pick your favorite Republican from 2016 other than Trump. If that person was president today and had this economy and no major wars being fought, Republicans would be talking about a 10 seat loss, maybe 15.”

    -The economy would not be as robust, because the massive cut in regulations would NOT have happened.

    Also, the “trade wars” would not have happened either, and I will predict that they will be a net positive for the country, and workers, and companies, because Trump, and his advisers, are for FREE TRADE.

  325. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:14 pm
    I didn’t compromise my view Trump is a scummy person who screwed a porn star”
    LOL
    After 2 years, that is the best you can do against Trump, huh?
    Trump has 100 times more integrity than you will ever have, and he is certainly no saint.

    – This is what make Jason fraud one of the worst people I’ve ever come across.

    Because I oppose Trump’s disgusting personal life and Jason fraud supports every nasty thing Trump has done because he won, Jason fraud says Trump has more integrity than me.

    Well, I haven’t been divorced twice nor have I cheated on my current wife while she was pregnant with a Playboy Playmate or a skanky porn star. But at least Trump’s win and exposed the kinds of things Jason fraud respects like infidelity and blatant lying.

  326. Wobbles says:

    Worse, they think we are moronic enough to not know the distinction.”

    I guess it took Trump to make Jason fraud an immigration deadender”

    Are you talking to me?

  327. NYCmike says:

    Robbie is just like the media, lumps ILLEGAL with LEGAL immigration.

    Typical behavior from the Pogo Loco hack.

  328. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    It still cracks me up that somehow controlling the borders is racist.
    Reach much?

    – That ad was racist. Pure and simple.

  329. jason says:

    Jason fraud respects like infidelity and blatant lying.”

    You tell more lies here in one thread than Trump has told in 2 years.

    Amoral Scumbag.

  330. CG says:

    One can and should be able to express opposition to illegal immigration without resorting to racist tactics.

    Trump cannot.

  331. Chicon says:

    Borders are racist, too.

  332. Robbie says:

    Chicon says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    Lisa, math is racist.

    – Chicon, the DNC did not have Seth Rich murdered and Judge Napolitano was wrong when he laughably claimed Obama used the British spy service to eavesdrop of Trump’s campaign.

    If I had believed two idiot conspiracies like that as you did, I wouldn’t want to show my face around here, but you are a Trumper so shame is a foreign concept to you.

  333. NYCmike says:

    “Because I oppose Trump’s disgusting personal life and Jason fraud supports every nasty thing Trump has done because he won, Jason fraud says Trump has more integrity than me.”

    -Milton Friedman answered this question years ago:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h__5GNbk-6g

  334. jason says:

    Because I oppose Trump’s disgusting personal life”

    Zzzz… you don’t oppose his personal life before he became President. You could care less if a decade before he became president he had a one night stand with some bimbo.

    You oppose him because he beat Jeb Bush.

    Stop lying.

  335. Phil says:

    Racism I say!

    Honestly, Robbie. Just admit it. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference in your stance on illegal immigration as the editorial board of the NYT. None. Nada.

  336. NYCmike says:

    CG says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:25 pm

    One can and should be able to express opposition to illegal immigration without resorting to racist tactics.

    Trump cannot.

    -Is the ad posted above? I need to see what these Jebots are in a tizzy about?

  337. lisab says:

    Nobody is even trying to make a case why those things do not matter in this cycle. This “historical average” argument is old news. It no longer applies
    ————————————–

    actually the average by definition includes historical happenings, (in the case of 31 seats, it is since ww2). the average for just the 2000’s is 115/4 or about 28 seats, but that is based on only 4 data points,

    2014 13 seats
    2010 63 seats
    2006 31 seats
    2002 8 seats

  338. ReadyFirst says:

    For Pete’s sake, the Pravda media still sees FL as highly influenceable because of early vote etc., that’s why we keep seeing polls like this mornings.

    66% of the vote has already been cast in FL. News flash, we’re well ahead of 2016.

    200,000 votes! That’s what the GOP will net from the remaining 1.3 million supervoters who haven’t voted. Reps have a 16 Point edge in remaining supervoters. That then leaves only 1.2 million non super votes from Election Day. I’d rather be us than them. Also, glad to see my fellow Floridians like Hugh and Marv holding strong.

  339. NYCmike says:

    Seth Rich!

  340. Tina says:

    Muh racism.

  341. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    This isn’t the 1940’s, the 1950’s, the 1960’s, the 1970’s, or even the 1980’s”
    LOL, Amoral Scumbag IS a clown.
    Translation: let me “revise History” because History does not support my position.
    I love this place, whenever you think someone cannot say something more stupid Amoral Scumbag will step up to the plate.

    – Jason fraud has become a brain dead moron. The country of toady is not the country of 50 years ago. Republicans are the majority party across the country.

    And oh by the way, idiot. Republicans gerrymandered most of these seats so they wouldn’t be losable and yet here we are.

  342. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is a Nevada early vote update. Positive news.All early voting is now accounted for with the inclusion of Elko and other rural Counties in the State.
    These Counties shaved about 1,000 votes off the Dem. lead on Friday. The new difference is 21,668 Dem. ballot lead.
    This lead is way down from the 47,000 ballot lead in 2016 and the 27,000 Dem. ballot lead when Heller(R) won his first Senate campaign in 2012.

    I am feeling confident about Heller’s winning since I believe the Indy vote which totals 130,000 ballots will break toward him by at least 20%, he will get up to 10% in Democrat crossovers especially in Washoe County and his voters will win the day tomorrow. This race IMHO is Lean R or better.

  343. Cash Cow TM says:

    WV EV totals:

    183,205.

    About 17% or RVs

  344. CG says:

    I do not believe the Willie Horton ad (the one that featured his photo was not run by the Bush campaign) was racist, because it involved a specific policy enacted by a specific politician-Michael Dukakis.

    The Trump ad is far different and far less reality based than that.

    All this focusing on immigration is not going to help Republicans tomorrow. Anybody who buys into Trump on this issue was already voting Republican. It is going to drive other voters who may have voted Republican away, and that is why Congressional Republicans have expressed frustration with all of this from the ad to the “birthright citizenship Executive Order” canard.

  345. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:20 pm
    “Next thing you know is Wes will be supporting NYCmike’s call to pass the RAISE Act that reduces immigration.”
    -Eventually, the party will make a deal with Cotton-Perdue…the numbers for LEGAL IMMIGRATION will be a simple negotiating point, as I have said for over a year now.

    – Yes. I would imagine Senators Angle, COD, Mourdock, Buck, and McDaniel will broker it.

  346. jason says:

    One can and should be able to express opposition to illegal immigration without resorting to racist tactics.

    Trump cannot.”

    Zzzz… I have criticized Trump on what I deemed racist statements such as when he called a federal judge a Mexican.

    But this ad is not racist.

    THe ad is EXCELLENT. Completely factual. The problem is exactly that it is accurate, that is why the MSM and the Jebbots don’t like it.

  347. BennSue says:

    Projections:

    Senate: GOP holds all seats including NV+Picks Up ND/FL/MO/AZ

    House: 219-216 GOP Holds

    GOV: GOP holds 31 (including Walker)

  348. Wes says:

    Robbie, in 1994, Dems had a decent economy and a large House majority with partisan, ruthless Dem gerrymandering from 1991 supposedly making it unassailable.

    How’d that work out?

  349. jason says:

    I was critical of the birth citizenship thing.

    But I don’t think Trump’s tough stand on the caravan will “drive away voters”.

    To the contrary, I think it will help.

  350. ReadyFirst says:

    And since this is the final prediction thread, for the record, I was second here, after Cow, to give my final prediction. 🙂

  351. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:22 pm
    No president would be in line to lose 30 seats with this economy.
    What about Woodrow Wilson and Warren Harding?

    – Yes. Let’s go back 100 years when women couldn’t vote or when it was almost only white’s who voted because poll taxes were a thing. Let’s go back to a time when ideology was not always fundamental to party membership. That’s a great comparison.

  352. CG says:

    The ad is accurate when it says “Democrats” let the guy in the ad into the country and let him stay? Even Joe Arpaio has disputed that. He said the guy “slipped through the cracks.”

    The concept of saying that the “Caravan” is filled with potential murderers, akin to the guy featured in the ad, is simply racist or designed to appeal to racists.

    Either you get it or you don’t. Trumpism definitely leads to division of opinion on issues like that.

  353. jason says:

    Wes, that was 1994.

    See, History only applies as far back as it suits Amoral Scumbag’s narrative.

  354. Phil says:

    Ana Navaro says border hawks are racists.

    How will I ever go on?

  355. Chicon says:

    Robbie’s not smug today. I think he’s crabby and may need a nap. Maybe he’s concerned that his months-long prediction won’t come true. Oh, wait, he WANTS to be wrong.

  356. BennSue says:

    Sorry swap AZ for IN; forgot Flake was GOP (I’m sure he forgot too)

  357. Tina says:

    Baris polled Arizona and Trumps approval was at 54%. More popular now than he was in 2016.

    Like Florida.

  358. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:23 pm
    “Pick your favorite Republican from 2016 other than Trump. If that person was president today and had this economy and no major wars being fought, Republicans would be talking about a 10 seat loss, maybe 15.”
    -The economy would not be as robust, because the massive cut in regulations would NOT have happened.

    – This is o stupid it could only come from NYCmike. Show me a Republican running in 2016 who was pro-regulation? Stop being so wrong all of the time.

    Are you suggesting your man crush Ted Cruz was pro-regulation? What about Rubio? What about Christie or Kasich? I don’t remember them being in favor of the EPA.

  359. CG says:

    If Trump ran the ad in the primary, jason (and others here) would have been quick to call it “racist.” jason would have said he was personally offended as a Latino and an immigrant.

    But Trump won, so he ha decided he has to make his peace with that. Will the same apply to the Democrats who may win tomorrow. Will he have to “make his peace” with them?

  360. jason says:

    The ad is accurate when it says “Democrats” let the guy in the ad into the country and let him stay?”

    Very accurate.

    “The concept of saying that the “Caravan” is filled with potential murderers”

    I have heard nobody say it’s “filled with potential murderers”. I think the point is that potential murderers may be in the caravan.

    Maybe you disagree.

    I don’t.

    People like this guy

  361. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:25 pm
    Jason fraud respects like infidelity and blatant lying.”
    You tell more lies here in one thread than Trump has told in 2 years.
    Amoral Scumbag.

    – And you’ve become Trump in the last two years. A scumbag who is ok with awful behavior.

  362. CG says:

    Had another Republican been elected in 2016 (and yes, that’s all fantasy baseball now), the regulations would have still been cut and the conservative justices would still have been confirmed.

    The two main differences as they relate to economic issues are, we would not be in trade wars and Obamacare would have been repealed and replaced.

    And the President would not be a lying disgrace.

  363. Wes says:

    In other words, Robbie, unable to dispute what I said, you have to toss out a bunch of caveats as if any of those things would have changed the results.

    You’re not very good at this, are you?

  364. Will says:

    Wes

    Rouser win in NC 7?

  365. jason says:

    If Trump ran the ad in the primary, jason (and others here) would have been quick to call it “racist.” jason would have said he was personally offended as a Latino and an immigrant.”

    Wow, how dishonest can you get.

    I would NEVER have termed it racist and it would never have offended me.

    And I was always against ILLEGAL immigration. Always. I was extremely critical of Jeb Bush’s position on immigration during the campaign, not Trump’s.

    But of Corey knows all this, he just prefers to keep lying.

  366. CG says:

    364. Either you get it or you don’t.

    I oppose illegal immigration, want to strengthen the border, want to eliminate sanctuary cities, and believe that the “caravan” cannot be let in and yet I still find the Trump ad to be race-baiting and despicable.

    People are going to differ on this. You guys like it, Others feel very differently. I think it will have a negative effect towards Trump’s “team” both tomorrow and would in 2020.

  367. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:27 pm
    Racism I say!
    Honestly, Robbie. Just admit it. There’s not a dime’s worth of difference in your stance on illegal immigration as the editorial board of the NYT. None. Nada.

    – This is what I love about Phil. If I disagree with him on immigration policy (the waste of money wall or Trump’s demonizing of all immigrants), I’m a NYT’s editorial page lover. Wrong.

    Try harder, Phil. I never thought you were a Tea Party deadender just because Red Cruz was your first choice in 2016.

  368. ReadyFirst says:

    361. Tina, exactly. Please see my 342. We win the supervoters handily.

  369. CG says:

    -jason called Trump an anti-immigrant racist every day of the campaign and said his hardline position would kill the Republican Party. He said once Trump was nominated, he realized he was so far out of the mainstream of the GOP on immigration, he had to leave.

    Now, he loves Trump.

    It’s just very odd

  370. Wes says:

    Will, if Rouser loses, Republicans are going to take it on the chin nationally.

    That race is on no one’s radar screen.

  371. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:28 pm
    actually the average by definition includes historical happenings, (in the case of 31 seats, it is since ww2). the average for just the 2000’s is 115/4 or about 28 seats, but that is based on only 4 data points,
    2014 13 seats
    2010 63 seats
    2006 31 seats
    2002 8 seats

    – And what was the economy like in 2010 and what is it like now?

  372. Wes says:

    Every day JEB! isn’t President is a day Robbie becomes more unhinged.

  373. NYCmike says:

    “– This is o stupid it could only come from NYCmike. Show me a Republican running in 2016 who was pro-regulation? ”

    -I mentioned nothing about an increase in regulations, Robbie.

    CAN YOU READ?

    I did say “massive cut”.

    Other than Cruz, and Paul, which Republican candidate would have instituted such massive cuts as we have seen?

  374. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:32 pm
    Robbie, in 1994, Dems had a decent economy and a large House majority with partisan, ruthless Dem gerrymandering from 1991 supposedly making it unassailable.
    How’d that work out?

    – Decent economy according to whom? Voters threw out the Democrats in 1994 precisely because the economy was viewed not to be in good shape. Voters returned Clinton to office in 1996 because voters viewed the economy was in good shape.

  375. Phil says:

    First of all, our uninvited guests from the south are not a race. How about we start there? If they were crashing in from Canada I’d be just as opposed to them breaking into our country. Borders have to mean something or you don’t have a nation.

    Illegal is illegal.

  376. Wes says:

    So, Robbie, what margins did Hillary and Ross win NC by again?

    I forgot.

  377. Tina says:

    The gubments of Mexico and Honduras have concluded that there are Isis and criminals among the invaders.

    The ad hit the target since the Jebots are triggered and faux news and cn and n pulled it.

  378. DW says:

    Here are a pile of Dem internals just released. Done by Change Research:

    R/D

    VA_02: 47/47
    NC_13: 43/43
    MI_08: 46/47
    MI_06: 40/42
    GA_06: 45/51
    OH_01: 47/44

    These are all tilted D 3 to 5 points, and the only one I am concerned about is GA_06, where Siena just had it D+2 in their unfinished poll last night.

  379. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    At 1:45 p.m. today and with the Florida Panhandle voting, the Dem. ballot lead in early voting has been cut by about 2,000 ballots; 24,750 to 22,750 with hours to go.
    After this day in 2016, the Dem. ballots were +95,000+.

  380. jason says:

    Had another Republican been elected in 2016 (and yes, that’s all fantasy baseball now), the regulations would have still been cut and the conservative justices would still have been confirmed.”

    Sorry, mere speculation. I doubt Jeb would have cut many regulations, and I doubt his judicial picks would have been as good as Trump’s. I say this of Rubio too, just to be fair. I doubt either one would have taken the tough stances on immigration Trump has, and I doubt Jeb would have gotten any tax cuts through.

    Of course, I say this now after what I see Trump has done.

    At the time, when I viewed him pretty much as a liberal Dem, I thought they would have been better Presidents.

    2016 is over. Too bad Corey and Amoral Scumbag are still stuck in it.

  381. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:33 pm
    Wes, that was 1994.
    See, History only applies as far back as it suits Amoral Scumbag’s narrative.

    – Of course because you’re an idiot, I said no Republican president would be in danger of losing this many seats with the economy we have today.

    The economy in 1994 was not perceived to be strong. Every poll out there today shows people believe this economy is strong.

    But thanks for being stupid.

  382. NYCmike says:

    “The two main differences as they relate to economic issues are, we would not be in trade wars and Obamacare would have been repealed and replaced.”

    -No trade wars? Then you would have lost MI, PA, WI, and maybe OH in the general election…….and the White House.

    As for repealed and replaced Obamacare, if you think that would have happened, I have a bridge to sell you, and I will tell you upfront I am going to rip you off.

  383. Will says:

    Rouser opponent is terrible. All the usual crazies have come out for local and state races. They sense blood in the water that is not there

    Feelings on NC VOTER ID amendment?

  384. Tina says:

    1954

    Unemployment 5 percennt

    Gdp 2.7

    1953 gdp 4.5

    Unemployment 4.5

    Eisonhower loses house and senate, despite the economy and ending the unpopular Korean War.

  385. jason says:

    Other than Cruz, and Paul,”

    Paul?

    LOL.

  386. hugh says:

    sheeple excellent news. I find it hard to believe we will not have a much larger gop versus dem vote in fl tomorrow and in the end the difference in gop versus dem vote will not be that significant to make a difference. We will see.

  387. jason says:

    Tina, History only applies if it fits Amoral Scumbag’s narrative.

    Otherwise, History is not History.

  388. NYCmike says:

    jason,

    These last 2 years, without MD interfering in my tutelage of your political thinking, have been wonderful to see your metamorphosis.

  389. Phil says:

    This is what I like about Robbie. He can always be counted on to poo poo the problem of illegal immigration. Not any different from the NYT. Once he even let the mask drop and out and out admitted he didn’t care about illegal immigration – Just like the NYT BTW.

  390. lisab says:

    actually a 63 gop swing in 2010 makes it more likely to swing against the gop this time

    both in volatility and regression to the mean

    some of those 63 lost seats would be in normally dem strongholds, so it is likely they would come back to the dem side.

    also, from a markov chain point of view, a 63 seat change in the most recent midterm points to higher than normal volatility this time — which should be good news for you, because it would point to higher than average losses for the gop this time, i.e. more than 31 seats

    but, i will just stick with the average, as without more information, the average is one of the safer bets

  391. ReadyFirst says:

    383. Sheeple, perfect. We’re well ahead of 2016 in EV and GOP will net 200,000 from the 1.3 million remains supervoters because of our 16 point edge.

  392. Wes says:

    Good try, Robbie, but the economy was hardly mentioned in 1994. (GHWB did lose in 1992 in part because of a recession shortly in 1991 and early 1992.)

    Dems lost in 1994 because of ginned up opposition to their overreach on the Brady Bill and their attempt at Hillarycare. Republicans promised fiscal restraint and a rollback of Dem excesses from 1993 and 1994.

    The economy was rarely referenced. Your blind JEB! devotion has truly warped your mind.

  393. phoenixrisen says:

    The two primary factors happened in 1994 causing voters to broom Democrats in Congress: The Clinton tax hikes and failure of passing Hillarycare. The economy was so-so. Same thing happened to Bush 41 in 1992. His reneging on his “Read my lips” no taxes pledge cost him re-election.

  394. Messy says:

    381. Then why haven’t they arrested them?

  395. Chicon says:

    Why are we comparing 2018 EV numbers to 2012 or 2016? Those were Presidential elections; what do things look like compared to 2014?

  396. NYCmike says:

    Messy,

    Which police force, consisting of United States citizens, has jurisdiction to make those arrests in Mexico?

  397. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:38 pm
    In other words, Robbie, unable to dispute what I said, you have to toss out a bunch of caveats as if any of those things would have changed the results.
    You’re not very good at this, are you?

    – Wrong. I was clear, and have been clear for months, when lisab say “but muh historical averages” that this isn’t the same country that we had even in the 1980’s. Republicans have been the dominant national party at the local, state, and national level for twenty plus years. The default position, especially with sophisticated gerrymandering, is Republican control. An yet here we are.

    No other Republican who ran in 2016 with this economy and no major wars would be in position to see the party lose so many House seats. House control would not have been up in the air with any other Republican, but we chose Trump so here we are.

  398. Tina says:

    1994 gdp was 4%.

    Economy was not a factor.

    It was hillarycare and the tax hikes (gas tax).

    1990 sheotty Groper 41 economy and we lost 8 seats.

  399. lisab says:

    math does not lie

    the historical losses in mid-terms has been pretty consistent since ww2. the sd has been high as well, so there have been big swings.

    however, the mean is the mean, and it is unaffected by political bias.

  400. Wes says:

    I support the Voter ID Amendment, Will, but I don’t know how it will play. It garners strong feelings both ways. I say it probably passes narrowly, but that’s a rare thing about NC I can’t be sure about because it elicits strong emotions on from both sides. I think the right-leaning nature of our state will give it the edge though.

  401. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:42 pm
    Every day JEB! isn’t President is a day Robbie becomes more unhinged.

    – This is so laughable. Try harder. The only ones who mention Jeb Bush in this forum are you and Jason fraud when you don’t like what I write.

    Find new material.

  402. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is an Arizona early voting update as of today:
    1) No. of ballots cast- 1.6 million
    2) GOP Percentage Lead- 7.5%
    3) GOP Actual Ballot Lead- 118,648; up 2,600 from the SOS’ last update.

  403. Tina says:

    Messy lad,

    We have no jurisdiction in Mexico to make arrests.

    The gubment of Mexico claims that they were overrun, The Mexican police force can be bought off and are corrupt. It is a sheot hole in short.

  404. Wes says:

    Keep telling yourself that, Robbie, while pining over your JEB! doll.

  405. lisab says:

    Why are we comparing 2018 EV numbers to 2012 or 2016? Those were Presidential elections; what do things look like compared to 2014?
    ———————–

    i am wondering the same in regards to tuesday’s vote

    now i can understand the argument that with early vote 2016 should be the comparison, because it is only interested voters

    but i would think tuesday will be mostly people like me, who vote

    but don’t actually care that much.

    i think tuesday’s vote will just be a bunch of old people and me 🙂 , like it usually is in mid-terms

  406. Tina says:

    The Mexican gubment has offered the invaders asylum, which they refused.

    We need to figure out who is paying for the invaders.

    The caravans exist, contrary to Faux News. They are more real than the Wmds in Iraq that Faux News claimed to exist,

  407. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:47 pm
    This is what I like about Robbie. He can always be counted on to poo poo the problem of illegal immigration. Not any different from the NYT. Once he even let the mask drop and out and out admitted he didn’t care about illegal immigration – Just like the NYT BTW.

    – I support border enforcement. I support e-verify. I support ICE and strict enforcement of the laws on the books. I don’t support demonizing ALL immigrants and that’s just what Trump’s ad did.

  408. CG says:

    1994 saw a ton of Democrat retirements, especially in the South. The political sea-change, which was already seen in Presidential voting in the 80s, was cemented.

    People do not seem to understand the concept this year that a lot of the House seats that are likely to be lost went for Hillary Clinton, even though they were in traditionally Republican areas, and people voted to reelect their GOP Member of Congress, while also voting for Hillary.

    Now, those districts, largely upscale and suburban (whether in California, Pennsylvania, Illinois, or even places like Texas or Georgia)are running the risk of being lost to Republicans long-term.

    Trumpism has shifted support for the Republican Party away from its traditional sources and has been reliant on non-traditional support from older, white, blue collar voters.

    Now, which is more sustainable? Those who were voting for Republicans for decades or the new Trump-Republicans? Are they going to be as loyal to other Republicans as they were to Trump in 2016?

    If you want to welcome in these new voters that helped him win some states in 2016 that few expected, you also have to deal with what is being lost at the same time, and the effect it is going to have on this midterm.

  409. Wes says:

    Facts don’t lie, Robbie. You adulated JEB! for years before he lost the primaries. Once he was gone you immediately began declaring the GOP would suffer electoral Gotterdammerung. It was no coincidence.

  410. jason says:

    It’s really funny that Corey thinks there would have been other Rs that would have done more for conservative interests than Trump, even after 2 years.

    Trump was not a conservative, but he campaigned as one and kept his promises. Yes, that surprised me.

    Jeb was a former conservative who tried to stay away from conservatism as much as he could, either because he changed his views or thought it was needed to win.

    Maybe he would have surprised us all and governed as a conservative. Somehow, in view of his statements since 2016, I doubt it. I think he would have followed the centrist, “Hillary-lite” agenda that he campaigned on. It would have been a lot better than Hillary’s agenda, but not as good as Trump’s (trade policy excluded, I have no doubt Jeb’s trade policy would not have been the AFL-CIO’s agenda).

  411. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:55 pm
    Keep telling yourself that, Robbie, while pining over your JEB! doll.

    – You and Jason fraud are the only two people who bring up poor old Jeb. I moved on from him in February 2016. maybe you should as well.

    Now, I’m hoping Nikki Haley runs in 2020 so we don’t have to endure anymore of Trump. And after tomorrow, I think that view will be more widely held.

  412. ReadyFirst says:

    409. Lisab. Not in FL. 1.3 million supervoters have yet to vote. These are people who would walk across broken glass before they missed a vote.

  413. GPO says:

    lisab says:

    November 5, 2018 at 2:47 pm

    actually a 63 gop swing in 2010 makes it more likely to swing against the gop this time

    both in volatility and regression to the mean

    Lisa those were different lines than the ones we are now under since 2012

  414. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 5, 2018 at 2:57 pm
    Facts don’t lie, Robbie. You adulated JEB! for years before he lost the primaries. Once he was gone you immediately began declaring the GOP would suffer electoral Gotterdammerung. It was no coincidence.

    – I never said otherwise. But after he lost, I stopped taking about him. You haven’t.

  415. Tina says:

    I doubt any of the other Rs would have shrunk the Federal government or cut the regulations.

    Kasich said we cut too much, assuming he is still an r

    EPA has been hollowed out and the education department has been chopped. The Bushies loved these agencies.

  416. Wes says:

    Corey, of the 54 seats counting the two specials the GOP netted in 1994, nearly two thirds (34) came from beating Dem incumbents. Retirements were a factor, but Republicans were ousting a host of Dem legislators whose voting records finally caught up to them.

  417. jason says:

    Those who were voting for Republicans for decades or the new Trump-Republicans? ”

    They weren’t doing the job, were they? It wasn’t enough to win elections, especially at the Presidential level.

    I don’t disagree there is a trade off happening, but the suburban voters should like what Trump is doing for them too.

    I am one of those suburban traditional Rs that left the party because I don’t like the direction of the party.

    But I am still going to vote my self interest.

  418. Chicon says:

    Lol, Robbie’s hoping for a 30-40 seat GOP loss because it will encourage someone to primary Trump in 2020.

    Refresh my recollection….who primaried Obama in 2012 after the Dems lost 63 seats in 2010? What’s that? Nobody did? Hmmmm.

  419. Wes says:

    Robbie can tell us the exact date JEB! left the primaries but claims to have moved on.

    ::facepalm::

  420. CG says:

    The people here who are still stuck in the 2016 primaries are the Trumpbots.

    They don’t want to acknowledge the political problems Trump has.

    When Jeb Bush’s campaign ended, I looked forward to supporting Marco Rubio or John Kasich and believed both could beat Hillary and be very good Presidents. I always said that about them and used to say “eventually we will all be on the same side.” (I would have begrudgingly supported Ted Cruz of course as a well as a way to stop Trump.)

    Some people here have just tied themselves in pretzels to be on the “Trump Train.” Admit it for what it is. You want everyone to forget what you used to say about him because you now want to only be seen as loyal to him. So, past position on immigration, trade, racism, etc, no longer matter.

    The Republican Party is not as “united as it has ever been.” It may be smaller than it has been in some time. The “Civil War” in the party is still ongoing and it may take a while to figure out where the party eventually goes. What happens to Trump politically and personally will play a large role in that.

    I maintain that as swiftly as he took over the party and won the allegiance of past critics, he can see it fall away from him as swiftly and the same shape-shifters will be denying they ever had any use for DJT and are happy to see him go.

    As John McCain frequently said, “nothing is inevitable.”

  421. jason says:

    I don’t support demonizing ALL immigrants and that’s just what Trump’s ad did.”

    Actually it did the opposite.

    It demonized a cop killer.

  422. phoenixrisen says:

    #423 — ROFL Wes!!!! That was a first rate redirect. That was a thing of beauty.

  423. Wes says:

    Just for the record, in 418, Robbie finally admitted JEB! was the catalyst for his predictions of inevitable and invariable doom and gloom for Republicans.

  424. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    1m1 minute ago

    Per Rasmussen, Trump today in “high 30s” among blacks. Black men in particular are supporting the President.

  425. Tina says:

    A cop killer who bragged about his crimes.

  426. CG says:

    “The Democrats” did not make the guy a cop killer anymore than Trump directed the nutcase in PA to be a Jew killer.

    You either see the ad for what it is or you don’t. If you are proud of the ad or if it makes you feel good about your candidate your party, then we just do not see eye to eye, and for the most part, we are people who would have seen things eye to eye before Trump came along.

    My position is that Trump changed people. I do not believe I am one of them.

  427. jason says:

    ” I looked forward to supporting Marco Rubio or John Kasich ”

    BS, a blatant lie.

    You trashed them non-stop.

    You even brought up despicable garbage that Rubio was not eligible under the canard that “others are saying it, not me”. Nothing was too low for you or Amoral Scumbag to trash Rubio with.

    You did everything you could to sabotage Rubio, a much better candidate than Jeb and someone that actually had a shot of winning the nomination.

    Instead you chose the worst “front runner” in campaign history for either party, a person completely out of touch and unprepared for the campaign, who expected to be anointed the nominee, and who never had even a remote chance of winning the nomination or the GE.

    And now you want to blame those who voted for Trump?

  428. CG says:

    431. Nothing fact based about this at all.

    Even as I was supporting Jeb Bush as the best person to be President out of those who ran, I was saying here that I eventually expected to support Rubio for the nomination. That was the source of my frequently repeated statements, “eventually we will all be on the same side.” Rubio of course turned out to fail as a candidate as the rest did.

    -jason was saying that not only would he oppose Trump, but that he would oppose Pat Toomey in his and every other Republican unless they rejected Trump.

  429. DW says:

    “Black men in particular are supporting the President”

    How can they capture this in polling? Unless the black men take the phone into the bathroom and whisper their Trump approval into the receiver as they flush the toilet.

    And even if true, support for Trump might not translate to support for congressional Republicans.

  430. Waingro says:

    I didn’t bat any eye to that Trump immigration ad, but it could have probably been edited more tactfully.

    I think he hit his intended audience though, which was the main task. GOTV. The people freaking out about it are rabid libs, who were already going to vote Dem straight ticket anyway.

  431. Wes says:

    Just remember though, guys, Harding and Wilson lost more seats in the House in 1922 and 1914 respectively than Trump will lose tomorrow despite good economies because women either couldn’t vote or were just enabled to vote. You heard it from Robbie first.

  432. Tina says:

    The ad would not have been noticed without the actions of cn and n and faux news banning it for being “racist.”

    The Drats/Jebot losahs have so over used that word.

    Because you banned it, now more people will,want to view it.

  433. jason says:

    I do not believe I am one of them.

    Sure you did.

    You will sacrifice ANY conservative position you ever had if you think it’s bad for Trump.

    Nobody has changed more than you have, because we know Amoral Scumbag never had any core principles to start with.

    You seemed to have some. No longer. You have sold out to the MSM and TDS.

    It happens.

  434. CG says:

    437. You were saying the opposite about me last month. You can’t even keep your attacks straight.

    What have I “sold out?” I still have never voted for a Democrat. I still supported the Kavanaugh nomination and tried to calm the bed-wetters here about it. I am still a conservative.

    I just won’t join your Trump Cult and never will.

  435. Tina says:

    And the Drats reply that the ad is racist because it targets all immigrants just proves said drat did not view the ad.

    Said Drats only support the banning of the content because the truth hurts.

  436. Marv says:

    I read recently, can’t recall where, that since WW2, the average GOP House seats lost in the first mid-term election of a GOP President is 11.2.

    I bet DW or Wes can track that info down…so can just about everyone else here.

  437. jason says:

    but that he would oppose Pat Toomey in his and every other Republican unless they rejected Trump.”

    Nah, I was briefly critical of Toomey and entertained that idea, but I supported Toomey, gave him money, and voted for him.

    And in the end, on election day, he said he would vote for Trump.

  438. Tina says:

    Larry Schweikart
    @LarrySchweikart
    23m
    The only numbers you need to know from the AZ early voting. Maricopa Co. is red, about 4.3m. Pima is deep blue, about 1m Maricopa: +100k Pima: -5.5k twitter.com/Garrett_Archer…
    View details ·

  439. CG says:

    You said for months you would vote against Toomey unless he rejected Trump.

  440. Tina says:

    Wain, I did not even see the ad until I found out that cn and n and faux news (there are wmds in Iraq) banned it.

  441. jason says:

    f you are proud of the ad or if it makes you feel good about your candidate your party,”

    Goal posts moving much?

    I am no longer a Republican, to start with.

    And second, I said the ad was not racist in any shape or form and was 100% accurate.

    You can make up crap like it “makes me feel good about the party” if you want, I never said that.

  442. Waingro says:

    #444, Tina, it played during the Pats-Packers game last night on NBC. First time I really saw it.

  443. jason says:

    What have I “sold out?”

    You said you won’t be unhappy if Dems win the House and Pelosi is speaker.

    I call that selling out.

    Any “conservative” that is not unhappy with Pelosi as speaker is to me a complete sell out.

    You can call it what you want.

  444. CG says:

    You know what I meant (and your logic that you had to leave the Republican Party in order to more strongly support DJT continues to be extremely weird). Does it make you proud of Trump? Does it make you want him to keep being President after the next election?

    Apparently it does.

    As I said, we see things very differently. And that does not make me a liberal in any sense of the word.

    The Republican Party you claim to have left is one I will do my best to stay in and change for the better, and towards Reaganism and away from Trumpism, whether it eventually takes one year, five years, or 20 years.

  445. mnw says:

    Tina 442

    AZ looks like a good ole country beatdown for the DEMs. I’m liking AZ-01 as a D-to-R pickup.

  446. jason says:

    You said for months you would vote against Toomey unless he rejected Trump”

    No. I entertained the idea here, and Bitter made a good case on why that was self defeating and I agree he was right.

    “Months” is a gross exaggeration.

    I supported Toomey and voted for him.

  447. Tina says:

    To set the record straight before tomorrow’s election: I have no idea what the Russians were up to in 2016, as I never met with them, but it’s a fact both Australia and the U.K. were colluding with the Obama admin to sabotage Trump. Trump had nothing to do with Russia. Vote Red
    11:03 AM – Nov 5, 2

    George papadapolous

  448. CG says:

    I’m not going to be “unhappy” regardless of which party holds the House. It frankly has little relevance to my life. As I have said, the Senate is more important.

    If every conservative is supposed to be “unhappy” if Dems take a House majority, you all better be sure to act like it and not be parroting the thing I have been saying about this in regards to how nothing can pass the House without getting thru the Senate or a Presidential veto, anyway, etc.

    You sure better act “unhappy” and not try to have it both ways.

  449. CG says:

    Months is accurate.

  450. jason says:

    You know what I meant (and your logic that you had to leave the Republican Party in order to more strongly support DJT continues to be extremely weird). Does it make you proud of Trump? Does it make you want him to keep being President after the next election? ”

    I think Trump is doing a good job and want him to stay as President.

    I think the ad is fair and accurate and correctly illustrates the dangers of illegal immigration, and cries of racism are completely unfounded.

    Both can be true.

  451. CG says:

    I fully expect jason to go on a hunger strike to demonstrate how unhappy he is about Democrats winning a House majority.

  452. Tina says:

    Thanks. wain, I do not watch nfl any longer. It has been about four or five years and nothing to do with any boycot.

    I just felt the product was going down hill.

    I like baseball and basketball better.

  453. CG says:

    Running an ad targeting the Democrats for the actions of the cop killer is about as fair and accurate as it would be for the left to run an ad blaming Trump for the synagogue attack.

  454. Tina says:

    Mnw, the Rs also increased their lead in ev in as.

    Almost 119000.

    Baris called it 2014 on roids.

    Schweikart claims that enema has a chance, if she wins 75 percent of the Is.

  455. jason says:

    You know what I meant (and your logic that you had to leave the Republican Party in order to more strongly support DJT continues to be extremely weird). ”

    LOL

    I love the Jebbots “theories on why jason left the Party”. One moron says it was to “support Trump more strongly”, the other moron says it’s “because of Trump”.

    Neither is even close to the truth. But it’s hilarious.

  456. CG says:

    The Pittsburgh killer after all specifically stated he was moved to act because of the “caravan” which he believed was being funded by “the Jews” and contained those who will “kill our people.”

    And Trump keeps running ads about a caravan containing killers.

  457. Tina says:

    I left the R party in 1990 when Groper 41 passed everything against Reagan and acted like a Drat.

  458. CG says:

    If you left the Republican Party, why do you feel you have to tell others in the Republican Party about how they should think or act?

    if you are, be out.

  459. jason says:

    Running an ad targeting the Democrats for the actions of the cop killer”

    It’s entirely accurate because the Democrat’s agenda allows people like him in.

    It’s 100% accurate and fair to illustrate what happens when those policies get implemented.

    The problem for you and the MSM is that you KNOW it’s fair and accurate, that is why you oppose it.

  460. CG says:

    Will post “final predictions” before midnight tonight.

    Enjoy the day.

  461. jason says:

    If you left the Republican Party, why do you feel you have to tell others in the Republican Party about how they should think or act?”

    LOL

    This sounds like I can’t be critical of the Pope because I am not Catholic.

    I love it here.

  462. Tina says:

    They not only oppose it, they are in favor of the ad ban.

  463. jason says:

    And Trump keeps running ads about a caravan containing killers.”

    What a novel idea huh?

    Maybe because it does contain killers.

    Like the guy in the ad?

  464. Tina says:

    I guess the Mexican and Honduras gubments are lying about the caravan killers too.

  465. GeauxLSU says:

    I am trying to objectively look at the Arizona numbers and see how people are picking a Sinema win. The polls seem to be all over the place but many are showing a slight Sinema lead. What am i missing? How does Sinema overcome the big EV ballot return lead from GOP. I find it hard to believe that she is getting enough cross over votes and/or winning independents by the 70% margin she would need. What am I missing?

  466. Skippy says:

    Arizona

    Early turnout in 2016:
    GOP 659,600
    Dems 554,910
    INDY 409,272
    Early turnout in 2018:
    GOP 656,822
    Dems 538,174
    INDY 379,988

    GOP are down 2,800 votes from 2016.
    Dems down 16,800 votes from 2016.

  467. Wes says:

    Close, Marv. Over the five first GOP midterms since World War II—1954, 1970, 1982, 1990, and 2002–the average loss is 11.8, which of course rounds to 12. For the Dems, the average first midterm loss in each of their first midterms—1946, 1962, 1978, 1994, and 2010–is 38, more specifically 38.2.

  468. lisab says:

    Lisab. Not in FL. 1.3 million supervoters have yet to vote. These are people who would walk across broken glass before they missed a vote.
    ——————-

    that is what i am saying ready

    i think tuesday’s vote will be the same old same old who vote in every election …

    as opposed to “energized” voters who probably voted already

  469. lisab says:

    Lisa those were different lines than the ones we are now under since 2012
    ——————————-

    true, but the mean smooths things out over time.

  470. lisab says:

    Kasich said we cut too much, assuming he is still an r
    —————

    he just hinted he will run third party

  471. mnw says:

    469 Geaux

    You are missing only the obvious conclusion: the pollsters & toupees have a defective AZ electorate & AZ turnout model, & they’re not letting inconvenient facts-on-the-ground get in their way.

    I doubt AZ is an outlier, but it could be. Schweikart & Baris like what they’re seeing in the EV in CA battleground districts also, i.e., Rohrbacher’s.

    Sorry about the ‘Bama game, altho I had no dog in that fight.

  472. jaichind says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-11-05/midterm-elections-why-one-punter-thinks-democrats-will-lose

    Bloomberg article on that guy mentioned here that made an $130K bet on GOP House majority.

  473. Albert Hodges says:

    The reason why we see a very few polls today with ridiculous generic ballot leads for the DEMS (CNN at +13?) is because they are trying to keep the RCP average up and needed a highly favorable DEM number to offset the tightening in the polls that others find. This is just to keep the DEMS motivated.

    No one believes that garbage but those polls serve their purpose…skew the average.

  474. Todd McCain says:

    Take for what it’s worth but Dean Heller says after EV in Nevada he is only behind about 100 votes.

  475. DW says:

    Harris Interactive showing movement in the D direction on generic ballot.

    Oct 28-30, D+6
    Oct 31-Nov 2, D+8
    Nov 3-5, D+10

    Of course its an interactive poll, so who knows if its any good.

  476. ReadyFirst says:

    472. Lisab. I think we’re in agreement. We’re going to see 2016 turnout numbers but with 2014 ratios. Nothing much has changed except there are more of the same votes. I basically said this several times after the primary.

  477. NYCmike says:

    Did anyone link to the “racist” ad? Not sure if I saw it.

  478. jaichind says:

    This guy seems to project D+3 in CA. CA-25, CA-45, CA-49. And he has CA-45 as very close.

    http://wheresthepartydoc.blogspot.com/2018/11/california-predictions.html

  479. Tina says:

    That could very well be the case snice heller won Is by 20 in 2012.

    But which program did he say that?

  480. GPO says:

    GeauxLSU says:

    November 5, 2018 at 3:39 pm

    I am trying to objectively look at the Arizona numbers and see how people are picking a Sinema win. The polls seem to be all over the place but many are showing a slight Sinema lead. What am i missing? How does Sinema overcome the big EV ballot return lead from GOP. I find it hard to believe that she is getting enough cross over votes and/or winning independents by the 70% margin she would need. What am I missing?

    You are not missing a thing – McSally wins – not that close

  481. ReadyFirst says:

    478. Albert, agreed. It’s what I’m trying to say with my #342 rant. These aren’t made up numbers, they’re real, just like the early votes.
    “For Pete’s sake, the Pravda media still sees FL as highly influenceable because of early vote etc., that’s why we keep seeing polls like this mornings.

    66% of the vote has already been cast in FL. News flash, we’re well ahead of 2016.

    200,000 votes! That’s what the GOP will net from the remaining 1.3 million supervoters who haven’t voted. Reps have a 16 Point edge in remaining supervoters. That then leaves only 1.2 million non super votes from Election Day. I’d rather be us than them. Also, glad to see my fellow Floridians like Hugh and Marv holding strong.”

  482. Marv says:

    Schweikert irritated me with his comment about DeSantis being in some trouble with virtue signaling GOP white women. I bet DeSantis wins and comes within a point or so of Scott.

    How many Trump/Scott/ Gillum voting white GOP women could there possibly be?

    (I am purposefully conflating the 2016 and 2018 election results.)

  483. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Here goes:

    Senate: R +3 (54 – 46)

    House: D +21

    Frank

  484. GeauxLSU says:

    RE: 469 mnw:

    “Sorry about the ‘Bama game, altho I had no dog in that fight.”…I’ve unfortunately gotten used to it. 8 straight for “evil” over good. I didn’t expect to win but certainly wasn’t expecting to be so thoroughly dominated. Unfortunately, I don’t see anyone coming close to beating them. Hoping the election on Tuesday gives me some relief, at least.

  485. DW says:

    “This guy seems to project D+3 in CA. CA-25, CA-45, CA-49. And he has CA-45 as very close.”

    I would say CA_10, CA_45, and CA_49 are the three that flip D. CA_25 is holding up well. I waffled much on CA_45.

  486. NYCmike says:

    Ok, saw the ad.

    “CG” and Robbie saying that is racist, once again, cheapens the meaning of the word racist.

    Are Democrats interested, at all, in defending the border, and strictly enforcing the immigration laws against ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS?

    NO, they are not.

  487. Marv says:

    Hi Frank,

    Nice to see you back here again. I’ve been away myself for
    awhile…. I had trouble getting through Dave’s IP filter.

    So you appear to be projecting a 219R-216D House.

    What about the Senate..,.GOP flips and holds?

  488. phoenixrisen says:

    Here it goes. Dems and media pushing the panic button.

    https://hotair.com/archives/2018/11/05/paranoia-dems-starting-worry-blowing-midterms/

    An interesting update at that link as well as NBC is realizing the “stunning” EV totals.

    42 GOP
    41 Dem
    17 Ind

    This mirrors Ras’ R+1 generic this morning. The GOP base is obviously going to show up in droves tomorrow. Not worried about turnout. We’ve been seeing this EV pattern for two weeks now here and now the media after turning a blind eye to manipulate the election is suddenly having to salvage their predictions.

    My red wave prediction of GOP +7 is looking better as time goes on.

  489. jaichind says:

    @ 493 phoenixrisen. Thanks. The article points out what I felt as well: The best scenario in the House is actually a very narrow Dem majority especially if the best deal we can get is a very narrow GOP majority. Let them have accountability without real power.

  490. sane_voter says:

    have to take a break from RRH. The negativity over there is off the charts.

    the only way tomorrow will be really disappointing to me is if the senate is less than R+1.

  491. Will says:

    I haven’t been following polling closely enough to make any reasoned predictions RE the House. Is there any evidence that the polling organizations have changed their methodologies? If they continue to make the same faulty assumptions as in the past, we will see similar shock tomorrow night as the results come in. I don’t think there will be a Blue wave.

    RE Senate: I think the Republicans pick up IN, MO, FL, and ND. I think they retain NV, AZ and TN

    That should be 55 R, 43 D, 2 Ind

  492. Cash Cow TM says:

    Corey Stewart has his first TV ads up in NOVA.

    More or less vote for me to stp the caravans of illegals.

  493. Phil says:

    494

    Not sure I disagree with that statement

  494. Waingro says:

    #493, “Here it goes. Dems and media pushing the panic button.”

    Lets Go!

  495. Frank says:

    Marv,

    Senate: R +3 (54 – 46)

    Frank

  496. DW says:

    493 – and the danger they run into is losing ‘soft’ D support tomorrow due to the thinking that Dem takeover is inevitable. The types of voters I am thinking about is the 18 year old college freshman whose roommates are hardcore D voters, and the freshman has been pressured to vote D for weeks now, but will have an exam tomorrow and get busy, and decide its going to happen anyway, and so not going to go out of the way to go vote.

  497. Will says:

    I am looking forward to a Beto loss though.

    Will he go back to Robert Francis following the election?

    Future MSNBC commentator with seat next to Rachel??

  498. Tina says:

    FranK, HI.

    I have pretty much the same numbers.

  499. phoenixrisen says:

    The other thing the EV totals from the Hotair article verify is the NBC/WSJ generic yesterday showing unmotivated Indies. That is BAD news for the Democrats. That likely indicates that indies don’t feel participation in this election is necessary because things are good as they are right now.

  500. Marv says:

    Frank,

    I saw your R+3. Sounds like you’re predicting all GOP holds and wins in ND, MO and one of MT, IN, or FL. Is that close to your projection?

  501. Tina says:

    Ryan James Girdusky
    @RyanGirdusky
    2h
    Over 70% of the expected vote in Arizona is in, and Republicans hold a nearly 119,000 voter advantage. Democrats are going to need to either have a gangbuster election day turnout or win indies by double digits. twitter.com/Garrett_Archer…
    View details ·

    Baris linked to this article and concurs.

    Re Indys in Arixona. Flakey won them by 1, Obama won them by 5 over McCain, trump won them by 3, and Quittens by 7.

  502. Tina says:

    Ryan James Girdusky Ryan James Girdusky
    @RyanGirdusky
    2h
    Replying to @RyanGirdusky
    At this point, if McSally carried 95% of the Republican vote, 45% of the Indie vote, and 5% of the Democratic vote… she would still come out ahead and that’s without factoring in the Green Party taking votes from the Dems
    View conversation ·

  503. DW says:

    “An interesting update at that link as well as NBC is realizing the “stunning” EV totals.

    42 GOP
    41 Dem
    17 Ind”

    And look at the 17% independent number. What might be going through their minds?

    A) I have got to put a stop to the wealth flowing into my 401k, and we cannot have all these jobs that keep getting created. So I have to vote D.

    B) I am thrilled the Dems want people accused of something from 30 years ago to have to prove they are innocent, rather than be presumed innocent until proven guilty. So I am voting D.

    C) We have to go back to the policy of sending all our wealth all over the world, so I will vote D.

    In other words, any Indy who votes for Ds this year, must be pretty far to the left anyway, and is an independent in name only.

    The GOP accomplishments in the last two years are pretty sane and sensible to anyone paying attention, and are more likely to gain voters than lose them.

  504. Tina says:

    Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    6m
    With update, early vote + AB total lead for Democrats in Florida falls slightly from 24,689 to 24,523. A net change of 166 votes favoring Republicans from last update. It’s the smallest early vote edge for Democrats pre-Election Day in the last 4 cycles.

  505. jason says:

    Anybody have a handle on the weather tomorrow and how it might affect turnout?

  506. Victrc says:

    502. Will

    Robert Francis (aka Beto the identity politics fraud) is going to run for President. It’s why he’s not giving his money away and why he is getting so much from Hollywood, CA NY.

    They all think has can be the Kennedy esque answer in 2020-

    I just don’t know what they see. He’s not a great speaker, his Schtick only plays to far left and leftie housewives who dream about washing machine repairmen during the day. He has no substance, his voice is kind of slurry.

    Oh well

  507. Scooterboy says:

    My Predictions: I’ll be wrong.

    GOP Senate: +3
    GOP House: -20

  508. jason says:

    I just won’t join your Trump Cult and never will.”

    Now I am part of a Trump cult?

    It’s almost unfair how I keep racking up points.

  509. Skippy says:

    BOOM!!!

    MI Senate (n=880) – Change Research Poll

    Debbie Stabenow (D) 49
    John James (R) 47
    George E. Huffman III 1
    Marcia Squier (G) 1
    John Howard Wilhelm 1

    Unlike Gretchen Whitmer, Debbie Stabenow is losing among independents, 47-44. Both major candidates lead 95-3 among people in their own party.

  510. DW says:

    Whole new pile of senate polls

    R/D

    Research Co.:

    WI: 39/50
    OH: 39/53
    NM: 33/47
    FL: 46/47
    AZ: 44/45

    Harris Interactive:

    MT: 43/49
    AZ: 46/47
    FL: 49/45
    NV: 46/46
    MO: 47/44
    IN: 41/43

    Change Research:

    MI: 47/49
    NJ: 41/51
    MT: 49/46
    PA: 44/51
    OH: 43/53
    MN: 42/51

  511. DW says:

    514 – and I wonder what that means for MI_08 and MI_11?

  512. Chicon says:

    Supporting Trump – even partially – is to be a member of the cult. This stark, black/white position is a hallmark of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

  513. DW says:

    it had to hit Silverhack hard in the gut to have to adjust that Change Research MT-Senate poll from R+3 to R+3.4 due to his re-weighting of polls.

  514. CG says:

    Supporting Trump, even partially, is not being a member of a cult, but demanding that criticism of him is unwelcomed or unacceptable is.

    We saw the same thing for some under Obama.

  515. DW says:

    Gravis, one of the hardest pollsters against the GOP all year:

    Sinema 46%
    McSally 47%

  516. lisab says:

    white men are very violent and a problem, and nothing’s being done about it.

    And then we have the President of the United States talking about a bunch of brown people like they’re the terrorists. I mean, we have a county where we — every other day it seems like a white woman calls the police on a black man for barbecuing or gardening or delivering the mail, and yet we sit quietly while all these white men are out, you know, terrorizing people essentially. I mean, every time there’s one of these shootings, and it’s a white man.

    kirstin powers cnn

  517. Phil says:

    DW

    Good catch. Absolutely correct about Gravis polls this cycle.

  518. lisab says:

    white men are very violent and a problem, and nothing’s being done about it.
    ————————-

    what are the dems gonna do about it? all these white men?

  519. Phil says:

    521

    I’m speechless. Internment camps, maybe.

  520. jason says:

    but demanding that criticism of him is unwelcomed or unacceptable is.”

    I certainly criticize him often, so I hardly find it “unacceptable”.

    What is unacceptable to me is that the MSM, who gave Obama a pass on lying non stop for 8 years and on the fact is was horribly incompetent President in both foreign and domestic policy, attacks Trump non-stop 99% of the time, most of which unfairly.

  521. Waingro says:

    If McDaniel somehow slides into 2nd position, this a potential problem fro the GOP in a runoff.

    Change Research
    ? @ChangePolls
    1h1 hour ago

    MS Senate (n=1003)

    Mike Espy 40
    Chris McDaniel 28
    Cindy Hyde-Smith 27
    Tobey Bernard Bartee 1

    Mike Espy will almost certainly advance to a runoff election. It’s not clear who his opponent will be.
    6 replies 16 retweets 33 likes

  522. jason says:

    They will have to re-educated, obviously, Common Core is not doing the job.

  523. jason says:

    Is it too late to sent Tobey Bernard Bartee a check?

  524. Scooterboy says:

    Looks like Dem Nevada lead now down to about 21,500.

  525. NYCmike says:

    “Supporting Trump, even partially, is not being a member of a cult, but demanding that criticism of him is unwelcomed or unacceptable is.”

    -If Trump is criticized without taking into consideration actions that would have been taken by a President Hillary, they are useless, and only being made because of hurt feelings over something that happened in 2016, specifically that the person making the criticism can’t get over the fact they were so wrong about the electoral chances of President Trump.

  526. CG says:

    525. I don’t see you criticizing him at all anymore, but that’s your right.

    It’s also my right (and Robbie’s or whomever else) to criticize him. And criticism of Trump has nothing to do with Jeb Bush. I know you actually realize that but have no other “go to” phrases.

  527. CG says:

    “Hillary would do this” is completely irrelevant to criticizing Trump. I mean, we can also say, “President Jeffrey Dahmer would have tried to eat Paul Ryan’s liver by now.” It’s irrelevant.

    It’s not even worth considering. Hillary can be criticized for what she does or says as a private citizen. Trump can be criticized for what he actually says or does as President (and when he is no longer President.)

  528. NYCmike says:

    “If McDaniel somehow slides into 2nd position, this a potential problem fro the GOP in a runoff. ”

    -I would prefer Cindy Hyde-Smith, simply because of the desire to keep the media from continuing to go after WHITE MEN.

    That said, I am pretty sure McDaniel voters will vote for Smith in a run-off……won’t Smith voters do the same??

  529. jason says:

    Ezra Klein is talking about the “popular vote” in Congress.

    You can’t make this sh-t up..

    “I don’t think people are ready for the crisis that will follow if Democrats win the House popular vote but not the majority.

    After Kavanaugh, Trump, Garland, Citizens United, Bush v. Gore, etc, the party is on the edge of losing faith in the system (and reasonably so).”

    I guess if you win the “congressional popular vote” then all seats should be awarded to the Dems?

  530. Scooterboy says:

    Getting nervous perhaps ?

    Ezra Klein- I don’t think people are ready for the crisis that will follow if Democrats win the House popular vote but not the majority.

  531. phoenixrisen says:

    514 – Oh my please let this happen!

  532. jason says:

    I was going to remark that NYC would defend deadender McDaniels in 3, 2, 1…

    But we didn’t need the 3, 2… we went straight for the 1.

  533. NYCmike says:

    Hillary may have eaten someone…..I am pretty sure Trump did not…..not sure how Jeffrey Dahmer comes up, unless you need to really be as extreme as necessary because your arguments are ridiculous.

  534. jason says:

    GFY Scooter, I beat you to it.

  535. Tina says:

    I never criticized Hillary.

    -Jebot

  536. Scooterboy says:

    Jason you bastard !!!! You beat me to it. I hope Waingro understands now why I called him out for stealing my thunder earlier.

  537. Waingro says:

    “That said, I am pretty sure McDaniel voters will vote for Smith in a run-off……won’t Smith voters do the same??”

    I would hope so, but not so confident. Plus, I worry a little more about indies and potential cross over Dems. I wonder if the Barbour Machine would attempt to pull shenanigans again too.

  538. NYCmike says:

    Voters = McDaniels?

    Wow, that is one powerful INDIVIDUAL!

  539. Tina says:

    Hopefull, tester goes down for being a leftist and more his vile attacks on the admiral who served 3 presidents,

    Vile pos.

  540. CG says:

    McDaniel is not winning a runoff.

    That said, I doubt he is going to come too close to making one. I think you all believe every single poll you see online is from an actual polling company and not just from people like DW who engage in online polling fantasies for their own amusement.

  541. phoenixrisen says:

    If James is truly that close to Stabenow there is no way Donnelley wins in Indiana.

  542. NYCmike says:

    “I would hope so, but not so confident.”

    -Odd how that works…….

  543. DW says:

    546 – calls to mind two years ago and the implications the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll of IA, and what it meant for the Midwest.

  544. Wes says:

    Mikey must be sick today. He’s actually expressing conditional support for a Republican who can win.

  545. DW says:

    The best news out of today…no more having to check those Siena/NY Times polls.

  546. Tina says:

    Strange that trump was in Ohio and not mi?

    Must say that his rally crowds are larger now than they were in 2016 and appear atypical for a mid term.

  547. jason says:

    I don’t see you criticizing him at all anymore,”

    LOL

    I just called his trade agenda the AFL-CIO agenda on this very thread. I think his trade wars are asinine.

    I don’t support building a physical wall on the entire border, I say that almost every day here. I think he is missing the boat by not pursuing a comprehensive immigration deal.

    I cringe whenever he attacks NATO and “paying fair share” and all that garbage. NATO and the corresponding effect it has on the balance of power is in our interest whether others pay for it or not.

    GFY.

  548. CG says:

    Do people actually think James is going to come within 5 in Michigan?

    I do not happen to think so, but we will see. Perhaps I am wrong.

    -jason claimed that the Dem Gov of Pennsylvania is going to only win by 10 points. I think both he and Casey win by a bunch more than that. We will see, but I think Wolf is probably going to win by closer to 20.

  549. Wes says:

    It seems James has the big mo. Two questions:

    1) Will it be enough?

    2) What has Stabenow done to hemorrhage support?

  550. Tina says:

    Btw, the Jebots obumbler was in Illinois. Small crowd and he has looked like he is going through a drug withdrawal of some kind.

  551. DW says:

    534 – I said it earlier today…look at which side is doing more splainin’

  552. jason says:

    He’s actually expressing conditional support for a Republican who can win.”

    I am sure it’s a temporary thing, Wes.

    He will be his normal self and sending messages tomorrow.

  553. CG says:

    552. You are keeping it to yourself though. It was said on here that the good economy today is owed to Trump’s trade wars. Not one word of disagreement from you. Instead, you attacked those who did disagree.

  554. Tina says:

    I must say that Jason is racking up a lot of points.

    Both Jebots just flailing away.

  555. Test says:

    David Wissing has a blog.
    E-I-E-I-O
    And on his blog he has some posters.
    E-I-E-I-O
    With a GFY here and a GFY there.
    Here a GFY, there a GFY, everywhere a GFY.
    David Wissing has a blog.
    E-I-E-I-O

  556. CG says:

    Long way to go to match his Cholesterol score, which he apparently also feels is a “myth.”

    Can you shed more light on that?

  557. Tina says:

    The good economy is due to Hillary.

    Her threat of winning the Presidency (damn Russians ruined that) caused a sharp economic boom.

    -Jebot

  558. Brandon says:

    Final call:

    Dems pickup AZ and NV. GOP picks up ND. All other races remain with their party.

    Dems take House winning 34 seats net.

    Go ahead, call me a troll.

  559. NYCmike says:

    ” It was said on here that the good economy today is owed to Trump’s trade wars.”

    -I know I mentioned “trade wars”, but I definitely did NOT say that the good economy is because of them.

    The “trade wars” do have something to do with Trump’s good base of support in areas negatively affected by NAFTA and other, supposed, free-trade agreements.

  560. Phil says:

    Well, at least you gave Republicans ND.

    That’s something. I think.

  561. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    #563
    Brandon is a good guy. He is no troll,but very much a pessimist.

  562. Wes says:

    Brandon and MD were declaring 2014 couldn’t possibly be a wave GOP year despite reams of evidence to the contrary, so, yes, always likely to pick the worst case scenario for the GOP.

  563. marc says:

    Fired up and ready to go, Fired up and ready to go. The 2018 midterm cycle comes to an end and we have witness historic early voter turnout from coast to coast. The Democrat Party who’s hatred of President Donald Trump has fuel them over these last 22 months. Their enthusiasm, fundraising, voter participation, has been massive until the Kavanaugh hearings with awoken a sleeping Republicans Partying sleeping towards a massive defeat. The Democrats vile treatment of Justice Kavanaugh reunited a base and got them paying attention. Go out and vote like your freedom depends upon it it. Also thank you to President Trump, whatever you might of his character, this man works for free. He travelrelentlessly into from coast to coast, state to state. He is attacked daily by a party of free-loading laggards and their hatchmen in the media who have accomplished nothing. He works with a single goal in mind: to Make America Great Again.

  564. Wes says:

    Unlike MD, I don’t think Brandon has become a Dem sycophant.

  565. jason says:

    t was said on here that the good economy today is owed to Trump’s trade wars. Not one word of disagreement from you. Instead, you attacked those who did disagree.”

    Hello?

    I completely disagree. The economy is good in spite of Trump’s asinine trade wars, not because of them.

    I consistently post links here to the damage trade wars do to other industries, farmers, consumers, etc.

    I consistently agree with those that say tariffs are just another tax on the American people.

    GFY again.

  566. jason says:

    I think Brandon is an A-hole, not a troll.

  567. Waingro says:

    Yeah, Brandon is no Dem troll. As I recall, he was a huge Chris Christie supporter, and after Bridgegate when Christie’s stock went down in flames I think he took a huge break from here. Understandable if that’s why.

    Either way, happy to see him back if even for a short cameo.

  568. jason says:

    marc, you should let us know how you really feel.

  569. dblaikie says:

    I remember Brandon from 2016. He was one of the abusers recruited by MD to proclaim how stupid and insipid I was. But oh yes, I am a clergy person. God expects me to forgive. I do. But God doesn’t call on me to forget the abuse I received for about 4 months because I dared to say that Trump was going to win. And of course the sin of all sins for the MD cult, Trump was going to win Pa.

  570. jason says:

    Brandon’s prediction exactly mirrors the conventional wisdom of the MSM and their pollsters.

    It certainly could happen.

    But I will be very surprised if the GOP does not pick up at least 3 senate seats.

  571. NYCmike says:

    I have to say, dblaikie, those limbs you sit out on must be pretty thick ones!

  572. Marv says:

    Final Prediction:

    GOP holds GA and FL Governorships. (Potential GOP flip in OR, although I’m not calling it.)

    GOP holds all Senate seats and flips FL, IN, MO, ND and 1 of MT, WV, MI, or NJ. (maybe 2 in the order listed)

    GOP holds the House with 220R-215D.
    (We go late into the night awaiting CA and WA)

  573. NYCmike says:

    Just for the sheer theatrical genius that will be unleashed tomorrow…if the Democrats do NOT do as well as the media has planned for them…..2016 may have to step back and become #2.

  574. NYCmike says:

    Go Marv!

    I see no reason for pessimism at this point. Trump is a divisive figure, but then again, wasn’t Bush, and Dole, and Bush, and Reagan, and Nixon……yeah, do you see the pattern developing.

    We will roll with whatever punches come our way. I am hoping for the best scenario tomorrow night, with the ability to withstand any bad news which may come our way.

  575. janz says:

    My predictions:

    On the Senate I am “bullish,” in predicting the GOP holds NE, AZ, TN, TX, while adding FL, IN, MO, ND, MT and yes MI (a squeaker) to their count, leaving the GOP with a 57 majority.

    The House will go to the dems with a tight gain of 25 seats.

    Governor races will favor the dems, but not by a blowout as I think republicans will win in such places as OH, TN, NE, and FL.

    Most of these assessments are not derived by any political expertise, like DW’s take. They are more intuitively generated with a lot of finger crossing for luck. Also, I can’t help but take into account the genuine loyalty and enthusiasm shown by Trump voters, especially during the last week of rallies with overflow crowds.

  576. RB says:

    Biggest gov races as far as redistricting goes i would think would be FL, OH, WI and MN

    PA and MI would be great but seem out of reach…maybe if the GOP wins KS they can be creative with KS03

  577. jason says:

    The reason I am more optimistic than the doomsday scenarios is that I think most people understand a vote for the Dems is a vote for Nancy Pelosi, endless investigations, and gridlock.

    My gut feeling is that more people than the polls show will not want to rock the boat when the economy is rolling along. A lot of people in the suburbs might not have voted for Trump, but they still voted for the rest of the ticket like I did. I don’t see how they suddenly become Pelosi Democrats even if they still don’t like Trump. Maybe they are morons like Amoral Scumbag that look at everything as “good or bad for Trump”, but maybe they are smarter than that.

    So for this reason I predict GOP +4 in the Senate and loss of 20 in the House.

    If people like Gillum win in FL, it probably means worse than dislike for Trump, this guy is a full fledged socialist, so it will indicate more of change in ideology.

  578. jason says:

    Marv if you are right I will send you a case of wine.

    Good st-ff, Chilean.

  579. Wes says:

    Dole was never President, Mikey—sadly. Was Reagan divisive? I know the Left hated him, but given his perennial high popularity, average Americans seemed to like him. GHWB wasn’t divisive, just lackluster. GWB was definitely divisive as evidenced by his 2004 re-election bid and subsequent plunge in popularity.

  580. Waingro says:

    Political Polls
    ? @PpollingNumbers
    4m4 minutes ago

    Our Final @PpollingNumbers 2018 Senate Map
    GOP 52
    Dems 48

    based on polls, early voting, trending and other factors
    let us hear your opinion in the comments

  581. Wes says:

    Trump is divisive, but the Left is so unhinged and extreme he often seems almost mainstream.

  582. NYCmike says:

    Wes,

    He wasn’t. He was a candidate. I should have included McCain and Romney in there as well, to show that I was just speaking about Republican candidates in general, as opposed to Republicans who made it to the Oval Office.

    Thanks.

  583. jason says:

    Is God a Republican?

    “The foul weather could affect both voter turnout and the election outcome in some battleground states Tuesday: Recent studies have found that Republican candidates tend to have a slight advantage when it rains.

    In the Great Lakes and Northeast, wind-driven rain will make for a rough Election Day. Some wind gusts will exceed 40 mph in parts of the Great Lakes, interior Northeast and southeastern New England, the Weather Channel said. The heaviest rain is expected to soak New England and New York state, where flooding is possible.

    Further to the south, in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to roar from Philadelphia to Atlanta, the Storm Prediction Center warned. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible as well as locally heavy rainfall, according to the Weather Channel.”

  584. JeffP says:

    Biggest question to me is … how many Trump voters in all these rural counties vote in this mid term? I think that will offset any D push. After looking at all EV data I think that RAS at R +1 might be the closest in generic polls to reality. Probably not that… but somewhere in between R +1 up to D +3. Which is a great night for the GOP. The Michigan and Montana polls are a representation of that movement to some degree. The EV in AZ, CA, FL, NV are looking favorably going into tomorrow.

  585. NYCmike says:

    I also should have said “purposely” divisive, as I believe he does certain things for the free media attention. I have watched him act like this for 40 years. It served him well.

  586. JeffP says:

    585… yep… that is what I am thinking.

  587. JeffP says:

    Forget post 591 I misread that. Dyslexia.

  588. Marv says:

    #585 Waingro

    R+1 in the Senate would be a very bad night for the GOP. The House would be gone by a lot.

    I. Don’t. Believe. It!

  589. Brandon says:

    #574. Say what? I wasn’t “recruited” by anyone to do anything to you. I first started posting on here a long time ago(over a decade), so honestly have no idea what you are talking about.

  590. JeffP says:

    NBC is using Targetsmart…okay…not what the D’s want to hear. Based on that GOP is crushing it.

  591. RB says:

    My guess is Senate GOP+2(3 pickups but one loss)

    House Dems + 25-28

    The polling is basically saying the same thing and while i have hope in the EV it is just one factor among many…the Dems are fired up but so is the GOP as seen by early vote in rural counties in particular

    I hope the Swiekerts of the world are right…but i also remember unskewed polls and Polaris…so my prediction calls for a meh? Kinda of night…we’ll see…FL and IN come in early so we will know a lot by even 8PM

  592. dblaikie says:

    Nycmike, back in 2016 those limbs were thick even though few saw it. One of the advantages that I have in this universe of HHR is that I don’t put as much stock into the polls as others here. So far that has proved advantageous. However, you never know, this might be year that Quinnipac and CNN have captured the mood of the electorate. I don’t see it and frankly the Dems aren’t acting like it with all their bravado. So every two years I hope the bias of the pollsters won’t let me down.

    In fact NYC, let me give you my formula. I don’t average polls (stupid) but what I do is take every one of these polls and what ever the Dem edge is, I cut in it in half. So the CNN poll is really 6.5. And every pro GOP poll just to fair I cut in half. So Rasmussen is really .5 towards the GOP. Washington Post’s 7 is really 3.5. Now here is the next step. With all polls add 2 points to the margin of error of every poll. You know what, it has worked really well. There I have now posted the dblaikie formula.

  593. Brandon says:

    Yes, I will not be voting for any Democrats tomorrow. I’m still not sure what I’m doing for the Congressional race though. Seth Grossman is a disgusting racist and bigot who has no business being the Republican nominee.

  594. dblaikie says:

    Oh NYCMIKE, I forgot one thing. Ignore all polls with adults. And don’t believe polls of registered is really forecasting. Just use it for information purposes.

  595. jason says:

    Excellent by “Goober” Graham

    “Well, one of the things we’ll learn from Kavanaugh is how in the tank the media really is for the other side,” Graham said. “I don’t think they’re the enemy of the people. They’re just allies of the Democratic Party. If a Republican had done to a Democratic nominee what they did to Kavanaugh, it would be front page news everywhere. If Barack Obama’s jobs numbers were anywhere close to what we’re talking about, they would stop the Earth from rotating to make sure everybody heard about it. So the bottom line is it doesn’t work anymore. MSNBC and NBC have become one when it comes to the news cycle. Saturday Night Live is making fun of a guy who lost his eye in Afghanistan. There is a backlash growing in this country from the over the top effort by the left to portray everything conservative as bad and mean and un-American. And we’re going to show up at the polls in record numbers, and we’re going to kick their butt in the Senate, and I think the House is going to surprise people.”

  596. Scooby77 says:

    Jason,

    You asked about weather…pretty crappy all up and down the East Coast, otherwise clear.

    That’s fine. Republicans vote come rain or shine, historically.

  597. Brandon says:

    Wes, I have no recollection of my prediction in 2014. But was it wrong? Probably.

  598. Chicon says:

    Senate – GOP +4
    House – GOP 219-216.

    Dems +6 governors.

  599. Marv says:

    #603 Chicon,

    Which 6 seats flip to the Dems? FL won’t be one of them.

  600. Tina says:

    We refer to him as Granite Graham, not Goiber, until he brings up amnesty.

  601. scooterboy says:

    Maybe it’s just me, but am I the only one that has noticed that Bill amd Hillary have been pretty nonexistent on the campaign trail?

  602. scooterboy says:

    Rove on Fox is still predicting a split decision tomorrow.

  603. RB says:

    2014…

    Did Tillis ever lead in any poll?
    Orman/Roberts were in a dead heat
    The 3 way in SD was creating GOP uncertainty
    McConnel was in the fight of his life
    Cotton was winning(but only by a whisper)
    Cant even remember Walker(was he neck and neck too)
    AK was on a razors edge

    These were actually perceptions going into midterm night…most were double digit GOP wins

  604. Wes says:

    Yes, Tillis led a number of polls.

    Roberts pulled ahead in the final week.

    SD was never really in doubt after the nuance of Pressler wore off, and Rounds won as soon as polls closed.

    McConnell never trailed except in a single Mellman poll after the summer.

    Cotton led most of the way and dispatched Pryor as soon as polls closed.

    Walker was leading the lion’s share of polls.

    Sullivan led most polls after the primary and pulled ahead after Begich’s September forty trick.

  605. lisab says:

    Chelsea Handler Goes Nude to Urge America to ‘Vote Like Your Life Depends on It’

  606. Marv says:

    The national EV/VBM ballot so for is 42R-41D-17/undedided.

    That’s about where RAS has the Generic Ballot, 46R-45D-8/undecided.

    What was the generic ballot and early vote total in 1994 and 2010?

  607. Bitterlaw says:

    456 The fact that the 49ers have sucked for several seasons has nothing to do with Tina not watching the NFL.

    I really wish jason would not refer to Robbie as Amoral Scumbag. He stole that from my description of Trump as an amoral scumbag (a description I have never backed away from). Find a new name for Robbie, A-hole.

  608. mnw says:

    Good news/Bad news

    !) Good news: Schweikart believes Mia Love (R-inc) is up about 6 pts in UT, & out of danger.

    2) Bad news: Mia Love will be back in Congress, probably.

  609. scooterboy says:

    Reporter leaves voicemail for John James campaign but forgets to hang up, leaving this message: “Man, if he beats her….Fu ckin John James. That would suck! Whew I don’t think it’s going to happen though”

  610. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Larry Schweithart

    Got good news out of UT: Mia Love up in her race, a little outside MOE. They are running ads with her and Romney AND it came out that McAdams doesn’t even live in the district. Take that one off the list.

  611. jason says:

    Why is it bad news that Mia Love is back in Congress?

  612. jason says:

    really wish jason would not refer to Robbie as Amoral Scumbag. He stole that from my description of Trump as an amoral scumbag”

    GFY, I came up with that all on my own.

    And besides, Trump is a paragon of virtue compared to Amoral Scumbag’s morals.

  613. RB says:

    Wes- the media was playing (NBC/CNN) all those races as tight…i can specifically remember Sbarborough saying the GOP is inept after a last round of Marist polls came out (he and Marist looked ridiculous after the election).

    Also Ernst was a toss(except in Selzer poll)

    The only polls that were too pro GOP was CO ….Gardner won but ‘did not beat the spread’

  614. Marv says:

    #616 Jason,

    My question exactly.

  615. mnw says:

    jason & marv

    Squish on border security/immigration.

  616. jason says:

    McConnel was in the fight of his life..”

    Ah, yes, Amoral Scumbag pushed this meme for a whole year.

    Allison Grimes was a “formidable candidate” he said.

    She was a ding bat who would not even admit voting for Obama.

    Lost by 15.

  617. jason says:

    Squish on border security/immigration.”

    Ahhh….

    Translation: not a deadender on immigration.

  618. Bitterlaw says:

    In regard to the impact of the economy on suburban voters, it may not be as big a factor everywhere. In some professions (like mine in litigation), it does not really matter. I know some Republicans who hate Trump so much that in 2016 they voted straight R but did not vote for President. Some are sitting out all races tomorrow. This is a purely anecdotal report but my town can’t be unique.

  619. Marv says:

    Much smaller stakes now, obviously, but I have an inkling of what General Eisenhower must have felt like on 5 Jun 44.

  620. jason says:

    See Marv, we would send a real message electing a liberal Dem in Utah, that would punish the “squishes”.

  621. Marv says:

    #620 mnw,

    Yep, but at least she votes right most of the time.

  622. Marv says:

    #625 Jason,

    I’m on your side, I want Mia to win.

  623. Bitterlaw says:

    Trump is a paragon of virtue compared to Robbie? Absurd. Trump is scum. Robbie is boring and odd.

  624. jason says:

    I know some Republicans who hate Trump so much that in 2016 they voted straight R but did not vote for President. Some are sitting out all races tomorrow. This is a purely anecdotal report but my town can’t be unique.”

    I am sure having that many morons must be unique.

    What is “sitting out” doing for them? Presumably the same people they voted “straight Republican” are still running, they now want them to lose after voting for them in 2016?

    Makes no sense.

  625. mnw says:

    Columbia, MO: rainy & COLD. Just nasty as hell. The people at that hangar rally are true believers. My dog didn’t even want to go for a walk in this weather.

    I’m sure Trump is happy as hell to get off his rally schedule. He certainly did everything he could possibly do.

    It’s those Trump rallies that caused me to take a chance in my predictions & go with Schweikart. The enthusiasm factor.

  626. mnw says:

    I never said I wanted Love to lose. I don’t. Not to a DEM, anyway.

  627. Bitterlaw says:

    Simple, jason. They can afford their lives no matter which party holds power. I always vote GOP but Obama and Trump had no direct impact on my personal finances

  628. jason says:

    Trump is a paragon of virtue compared to Robbie? Absurd. Trump is scum. Robbie is boring and odd.”

    Nah, Amoral Scumbag is much worse than Trump, Trump at least let’s you know what he thinks.

    Do you ever believe ANYTHING Amoral Scumbag says. Anything?

    A whole decade of the same M.O., the guy does not have one moral fiber in his being.

    Completely and utterly amoral.

    Find something else for Trump, everything is relative.

  629. jason says:

    I always vote GOP but Obama and Trump had no direct impact on my personal finances”

    Impossible.

    It has a significant impact, you might not care what that is, which is completely different.

    And the idea wealthy people don’t care about money i just that, a myth.

  630. BayernFan says:

    I have a feeling based on polling vis a vis enthusiasm, the EV turnout, and the tightening polls that things are breaking a bit toward the GOP instead of he Illegal Alien Party. Similar dynamic to 2016.

    As I said yesterday, GOP pickup 5 in Senate, lose 9 in House, and lose 5 governors. Braun wins of course.

    The red wall holds.

  631. Bitterlaw says:

    Jason – Who would you trust with your wife or daughters? I would bpnever trust Trump to not be pig. I would trust Robbie to be wrong and annoying but not a pig.

  632. jason says:

    There is nobody that lives in Radnor that is not affected in some manner by personal or corporate tax rates, capital gains rates, energy prices, estate tax, or property values, among other effects the economy has on individual and businesses, you read it here first.

  633. jason says:

    Jason – Who would you trust with your wife or daughters?”

    Trump in a nanosecond. He has a nice family and his kids seem to have turned out fine.

    I am sure he would treat your wife and daughters just fine.

    Amoral Scumbag is despicable scum.

    Not even close.

  634. BayernFan says:

    Kavanaugh, Kanye, and the Karavan.

  635. JeffP says:

    So far RAS # is closer…This is margin NOT going to change that much tomorrow is it?

    According to this model 35,525,446 ppl already voted as of now

    Rep 16,372,745
    Dem 16,195,089
    Others 2,958,612

  636. jason says:

    Now Bill Clinton, THERE you would have to worry about your wife and daughters.

  637. JeffP says:

    639…that is hilarious…thanks.

  638. Bitterlaw says:

    I guess Trump could not treat my wife worse than he treated his own wives. Pretty low bar to be called a paragon of virtue by Jason.

  639. Marv says:

    #640 JeffP,

    The early vote may tilt slightly to the GOP when the Monday votes are reported Tues morning. The panhandle counties in FL were open today for EV.

    GOP turns out big on election day, so we’re in good shape nation-wide too.

  640. jason says:

    Mia Love is a black conservative, bright and articulate, just the type of person needed to broaden the appeal of the R party.

    But she just doesn’t pass every one of mnw’s litmus tests.

    Will the last “true conservative” just turn off the lights?

  641. mnw says:

    640 JeffP

    That includes CA.

    Instead of Pecan Resistance, Ben & Jerry’s ought to stock up on Golden State Surprise.

  642. jason says:

    #620 mnw,

    Yep, but at least she votes right most of the time.”

    mnw doesn’t care about that. If she doesn’t vote “the right way” 100% of the time, better just send a message.

  643. mnw says:

    She also can’t punch her way out of a wet paper bag; is universally regarded as a lazy campaigner AND a dreadful FRer, & every 2 yrs she almost loses.

    Send her a check. She doesn’t get many, but then she never asks– until 1-minute to midnight when it’s almost too late.

  644. scooterboy says:

    A Bitter vs Jason dust up.

    It’s like a gun fight at the A-hole Corral.

    Man I missed this place.

  645. jason says:

    guess Trump could not treat my wife worse than he treated his own wives. Pretty low bar to be called a paragon of virtue by Jason.”

    Zzzzzzz… reading too many tabloids?

    And I didn’t call him a paragon of virtue.

    I called him a paragon of virtue compared to Amoral Scumbag.

    I clearly stated everything is relative.

  646. Bitterlaw says:

    Counting on the Titans to do the dirty work of beating the Cowboys is a sad exercise.

  647. mnw says:

    You’re the deadender who won’t support GOP nominees u don’t like. Not me. I want Love to win, AND I voted for McPain.

    I’m done talking to you. Say whatever you like, without any danger of response.

  648. ReadyFirst says:

    631. MNW. “I never said I wanted Love to lose.”

    You sir, are a true romantic, I applaud you!

  649. jason says:

    She also can’t punch her way out of a wet paper bag; is universally regarded as a lazy campaigner AND a dreadful FRer, & every 2 yrs she almost loses.”

    Again, translation needed.

    She is not a deadender.

  650. Bitterlaw says:

    mnw trashes MIA Love but at least he wants her to win.

  651. ReadyFirst says:

    636. Bitter, hmmmmm, tough choice. The p…grabber or HHRs most likely to go postal.
    “Jason – Who would you trust with your wife or daughters? I would bpnever trust Trump to not be pig. I would trust Robbie to be wrong and annoying but not a pig.”

  652. Tina says:

    Golden .state Surprise.

    Why yes.

    I could not chose between Frankenstein and her opponent, one is purchased by China, the other by Mexico..

    So, I voted for myself. The ranked voting scheme is terrible.

    I have one vote at least.

  653. Tina says:

    I thrash Republicans and want them to lose.

    -Jebot

  654. Bitterlaw says:

    I do not think Robbie would go postal. Too much effort. CG would not shoot up the place, either. He would just make people feel bad about their choices.

  655. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Like how in a “blue wave” election Democratic candidates feel the need to denounce Democratic leaders. Here is Mia Love’s opponent stating he will not vote for Pelosi as speaker:

    “McAdams has touted himself as a moderate and said he would not support Nancy Pelosi as House speaker in hopes of appealing to unaffiliated voters who account for 38 percent of the district’s voters.”

    Believe Love will win, but it could be close. McAdams is the Salt Lake City County Mayor and respected.

  656. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    655. “mnw trashes MIA Love but at least he wants her to win.:

    I cannot see any reason to not like Mia Love. Someday she could be a Utah Senator.

  657. MichiganGuy says:

    Ann Coulter
    ?Verified account @AnnCoulter
    4h4 hours ago

    John Kasich, the REPUBLICAN governor of Ohio, just proudly announced on MSNBC that he didn’t vote for all Republicans.
    ——————————————————————————————————————-
    Yep, I’ll be glad when he is gone. Maybe, he will be a commentator on msnbc or cnn.

  658. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    659. “I do not think Robbie would go postal.”

    Considering that Robbie hides out in Bogo Pogo, he will go coconut. It what happens to someone after a coconut falls on their head.

  659. Cash Cow TM says:

    People wonder why people do not believe polls?

    Of the polls that came out yesterday and today:

    2018 Generic Congressional Vote:
    RAS R+ 1
    ABC D+ 8
    NBC D+ 7
    IBD D+ 9
    CNN D+13

    ___________________
    Trump approval/disapproval rating:
    RAS + 1
    NBC – 6
    ABC – 8
    IBD -13
    Gallup -14
    ___________________________________
    FL U.S. Senate:
    –Quinny, Nelson +7
    –Harris, Scott +2
    ________________________________________
    MO U.S. Senate:
    Trafalgar….Hawley +4
    NBC/Marxist..McCaskill +3
    ___________________________________
    NV U.S. Senate
    Emerson, Rosen +4
    Harris, Heller +1
    ______________________
    AZ U.S. Senate
    Emerson, Sinema +1
    Harris, MCSally +6
    ________________________

  660. Bitterlaw says:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/formmb?lang=en

    MD wants Beto to win. I don’t think even Darth Vader went so far over to the dark side.

  661. mnw says:

    Tina

    I hope you win!

    Schweikart has a summary article up. Link at his site, to Big League Politics.

    He mostly consolidates & repeats what he’s already said. However, he (hearts) him some Housley, as a possible upset special. He also fancies Rosendale’s chances in MT.

  662. JeffP says:

    Look out for John James in Michigan. He is a rock star in the making.

  663. mnw says:

    Cow

    I believe Morning Consult had GCB at DEM +3.

  664. jason says:

    ou’re the deadender who won’t support GOP nominees u don’t like. Not me.”

    You support deadender GOP candidates that can’t win so liberal Dems get the seat.

    Now you are trying to pass yourself off as some great party loyalist?

    GFY.

  665. BayernFan says:

    MD showed himself to be a self absorbed cowardly little beetch.

  666. jason says:

    Wow, MD really has completely become a DEM.

    He is even trashing Rick Scott.

  667. Phil says:

    665

    Bitter, in the last two years I have refrained from saying anything negative about MD mainly because he was one of my favorite posters on here for years.

    I have to say, however, that he’s absolutely lost his F ing mind. You don’t just suddenly overnight completely go from one political ideology to the polar opposite one unless you have a screw loose. He is an absolute nut case. Of course I see what Trump hatred does to some (see Robbie) but overnight become a flaming liberal? LOL

    I don’t think Republicans hold the House but if they do look for this guy to become an unhinged loon. Hard to imagine his rage dialed up beyond what it is now. Pretty scary.

  668. NYCmike says:

    “But she just doesn’t pass every one of mnw’s litmus tests.”

    -YET, he would still turn out in the general election and vote for her….as opposed to other “real conservatives” who stay home, if their preferred candidate doesn’t win the primary.

  669. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t think Republicans hold the House but if they do look for this guy to become an unhinged loon. Hard to imagine his rage dialed up beyond what it is now. Pretty scary.”

    -MD used to joke about the “short” bus picking other posters up…..he may be next depending on what happens tomorrow night.

  670. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Alliance has updated their polling effective 4:40 this afternoon.

    https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/

  671. jason says:

    YET, he would still turn out in the general election and vote for her…”

    Zzzzz…..

    When he stops supporting deadenders and giving awaty seats to liberal Dems he can talk about “party loyalty”.

  672. Frank says:

    Marv,

    Been away for a meeting all night.

    I have been debating R +3 or R +4, but settled on the smaller number in case there is a surprise … surprise the wrong way.

    Frank

  673. Tina says:

    Thanks, mnw.

    I am sure there will be a surprise somewhere. Hopefully, we get the surprise.

    As far as md, he was my boss at the right pundits website years ago.

    Frank, I believe wrote for them too.

  674. jason says:

    MD was Tina’s boss?

    Who knew?

  675. jason says:

    Bitter was technically my boss when he was Governor and I was Lt. Governor.

    But he treated me pretty well, hardly ever told me hey you llama loving Inca bastard do what I tell you to or I will have you deported.

  676. CG says:

    “You don’t just suddenly overnight completely go from one political ideology to the polar opposite one unless you have a screw loose.”

    Donald Trump did and became President

  677. jason says:

    So many good people have left us forever.

    Gary Maxwell. MD. Chekote. Monetarist. Kommie Kory.
    Scotsville something. Jason D. Aaron.

    Who was the guy who said if Romney won Mormonism would contaminate the country?

    You know who we haven’t seen in ages? WPA.

  678. jason says:

    Donald Trump did and became President”

    Wow.

    Corey is admitting Trump became conservative.

    Major breakthrough.

  679. lisab says:

    Who would you trust with your wife or daughters?
    ——————

    who would you trust with your son?

  680. CG says:

    No, Trump is pretending to be conservative.

    MD may or may not be pretending to be a liberal. Who really knows?

  681. Tina says:

    CNBC noted that the WSJ/NBC poll found that Republicans have cut into the Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot because Trump’s “late campaign blitz” focusing on illegal immigration has “rallied the Republican base of white working-class voters, helping to curb the Democratic advantage heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections for Congress.”

    This is not true in Jebot land. He never mentioned the economy and the ad is racist.

  682. Bitterlaw says:

    LaZebra hated Mormons.

    Maybe MD was the ultimate liberal sleeper agent.

  683. Phil says:

    681

    Overnight?

    Uh, no.

  684. jason says:

    I can see Author becoming a moonbat. But I would never have picked MD.

  685. jason says:

    Right.

    LaZebra

    I called him LaBigot

  686. lisab says:

    681

    Overnight?

    Uh, no.
    —————–

    same answer i would give for #684

  687. jason says:

    No, Trump is pretending to be conservative.”

    Hey, you are the one who said his ideology changed.

    “You don’t just suddenly overnight completely go from one political ideology to the polar opposite one unless you have a screw loose.”

    Donald Trump did and became President

  688. Tina says:

    Yes, trump is pretending to be conservative.

    So insightful. In 2017, you claimed he was Russian,

  689. JeffP says:

    MD emotionally abused me in the late summer of 2016 (Sarcasm). He bullied me many times when I would post my thoughts that Trump had a real chance of beating Cankles. Just typing this brings back emotions and memories of typing on my iPad (not really) as I saw all the Trump signs along the Turnpike in western PA on our family vacation to Philly and MD would publically shame me on HHR…and I wasn’t even part of #MAGA…I just liked Mike Pence and was #NeverHillary….LOL…Memories…really I think he felt sorry for me sometimes and I would just laugh and her would try and be kind in his sorta way.

  690. Tina says:

    One political ideology and go to another.

    The Jebot must have forgotten about
    Schwarznkennedy,

  691. jason says:

    Trump was a liberal, but opportunity knocked.

  692. jason says:

    Corey was trying to be clever and tripped up badly.

    Instead of laughing it off and saying ok you got me, he will continue to dig a hole for the next 10 threads.

  693. Phil says:

    Reagan was a liberal as well. At least he evolved over time.

    MD? Like I said. Overnight.

  694. CG says:

    Trump changed his views much more dramatically than MD. With MD, at least we can maybe understand the cataylyst.

    In 2012, after the Romney loss, Trump was saying A.) that Romney was “diabolical” for being too hard-line on immigration and also that he wanted Hillary Clinton to be President.

    After 2012, as she was preparing to leave Secretary of State, he was saying she had been the best Secretary of State the U.S. ever had and that her husband and been among the best Presidents. Again, this was after the 2012 election.

    So, he changed on that to saying they were the worst..

  695. CG says:

    I didn’t mess up anything. Trump publicly took liberal positions for years, whether he meant it or not, and then when he ran for President, suddenly did 180s on lots of issues to appeal to conservatives.

    He literally did it on the fly when meeting with David Bossie and Stephen Bannon in 2010. He declared right then that he was “Pro-Life” because he was giving thought to running in 2012 (after that election he declared Hillary was the best person for 2016.)

    To his credit, Trump has been consistent on a protectionist big-government trade position since the 1980s. That may be the one thing he truly believes in.

  696. CG says:

    Reagan would quote from the Democrat platforms of the 1930s to show he was not the one that had changed, the party had.

    Reagan was always consistent in his view of government and personal freedom. It is true that his position on abortion as Governor of California was to the left of the one he had as President.

  697. Tina says:

    Ok, last rally in Missouri.

    Rush, Hannity Interruptius, and a couple of Mayhem Kelly look a likes ar in attendance.

  698. Phil says:

    ‘’ At least we can understand the catalyst”

    You got that right. No mystery there. TDS.

  699. CG says:

    McCaskill is probably counting on Limbaugh to elect her again, just like he did in 2006.

  700. Tina says:

    I keep marveling at the crowd sizes.

    Btw, the obumbler had to give out $15 for the folks in Cleveland to attend,

    What is worth more $15 or an Obama phone?

  701. jason says:

    I actually agree with Corey that Trump is not a conservative.

    I just caught him saying the opposite however.

    But like I said, he will claim he didn’t say it for the next 10 threads.

  702. Tina says:

    Reagan was not always consistent and while great, he was not perfect.

    Tariffs and quotas.

    $2500 for imported Japanese truck.

    Also, he erred with Simpson Mazzola.

    But, he was not a Bushie with a 1000 points of liberalism, spending like drunks, , and invading Iraq.

  703. jason says:

    When will Amoral Scumbag show up to tell he will be here celebrating a Dem win tomorrow?

  704. CG says:

    The point is that Trump got elected, after changing his views so dramatically, so quickly. It has nothing to do with if they are genuine or not, but clearly enough people bought it.

  705. jason says:

    Reagan was certainly consistent about wanting to break the back of both the New Deal concept of big government and the Soviet style communism.

    Best President by far in my lifetime.

  706. jason says:

    It has nothing to do with if they are genuine or not, but clearly enough people bought it.:”

    Right, I didn’t buy it, but I was wrong.

    Whether he is a doctrinaire conservative or not, and I don’t think he is, he is mostly governing as a conservative.

    To deny that is stupid. His judicial picks, energy policy, and positions on deregulation, taxes and immigration, investing in the military, Israel, Iran, etc. are certainly conservative.

  707. Bitterlaw says:

    I think Trump would have run for the Democratic nomination in 2016 if Hillary did not run. The Left would have celebrated him and his engaging personality if he was pushing their agenda.

  708. mnw says:

    Tina

    I forgot:

    Schweikart also predicts that Tarkanian (R) wins in NV-03, but that Hardy (R) loses in NV-04.

  709. CG says:

    So, if he can “govern” as a conservative (although I strongly disagree that is happening), it is proof that someone can change so dramatically (such as MD) without having a screw loose. After all, he won, and has a base of devoted supporters.

    Or they may both have a screw loose. It’s objective.

  710. Tina says:

    But never trumper, who is the son of a mailman, claims that we cut taxes and regulations “too much.”

    The Iran deal was perfect.

    Open borders is wonderful.

    If that above is conservatism, I want no part of it.

  711. jason says:

    The Left would have celebrated him and his engaging personality if he was pushing their agenda.”

    Yep, they didn’t think he was a racist sexual predator criminal when he was funding Chuck Schumer, Hillary and Harry Reid.

  712. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey is sad that Trump is not a pragmatic compromiser like Hillary.

  713. Tina says:

    Mnw, you are not at the rally?

    Sky Queen will crash,

  714. CG says:

    Trump with a Democrat House, may prove himself to be far more of a compromiser than Hillary would have been.

    He has less in the way of core convictions than Bill and Hillary, and that’s really saying something.

  715. CG says:

    I need to finish my Trollblog predictions, so I need to stop distracting myself!

  716. NYCmike says:

    “No, Trump is pretending to be conservative.”

    -If so, he is as good an actor as Reagan was. I hope he keeps the role for 8 years, and in the meantime, Pence/Haley can get their “acting” (pretending) lessons!

  717. jason says:

    Schweikart also predicts that Tarkanian (R) wins in NV-03, but that Hardy (R) loses in NV-04.”

    Can we trade?

    Tarkanian is a freaking moron.

    Don’t get me wrong, I hope the freaking moron wins.

  718. NYCmike says:

    “Trump with a Democrat House, may prove himself to be far more of a compromiser than Hillary would have been.”

    -Yup. And he will FORCE the Republican Senate to go along with him…….

  719. Tina says:

    We get Piglosi as speaker; Schiff that loves male nude pics (I make no further comment here) to run intelligence committee; and low iq to chair banking.

    This could not be better scripted for 2020.

  720. jason says:

    Corey is sad that Trump is not a pragmatic compromiser like Hillary.”

    Heh….

  721. Tina says:

    Piglosi will not be weak and timid though as house speaker, like Pauolo Ryano.

  722. Waingro says:

    EXCLUSIVE: In a phone call to @JohnJamesMI’s campaign, Brenda Battel, a reporter for a Michigan newspaper, thought she hung up the phone then says: “Man, if he beats her (@stabenow)… Jesus! F*cking John James. That would SUCK!”

    Read: bit.ly/2PHec2O Via. @DailyCaller

  723. jason says:

    it is proof that someone can change so dramatically (such as MD) without having a screw loose”

    Nope, I think MD does have a mental problem.

    This was a guy that berated me for not being more supportive of deadender Sharron Angle.

  724. jason says:

    EXCLUSIVE: In a phone call to @JohnJamesMI’s campaign, Brenda Battel, a reporter for a Michigan newspaper, thought she hung up the phone then says: “Man, if he beats her (@stabenow)… Jesus! F*cking John James. That would SUCK!”

    I hope this doesn’t surprise anyone besides Amoral Scumbag.

  725. Tina says:

    One big difference, whereas the ineffective, Mute 43 was intimated by her, trump will not give a sheot about her.

    Trump,hates her, and she hates him.

  726. jason says:

    Actually, I would not be surprised if Trump compromised with a Dem congress on some issues.

    I certainly would have been surprised if a rigid left wing ideologue like Hillary ever compromised on anything with a R congress.

  727. NYCmike says:

    “intimated”

    -Uh Oh!

  728. NYCmike says:

    “Actually, I would not be surprised if Trump compromised with a Dem congress on some issues.”

    -Neither would I.

    That is why we need the Senate, for sure.

  729. jason says:

    David French via Instapundit:

    “Dmocrats claim that now is a critical time for public hygiene. It’s time to hold corrupt, self-aggrandizing politicians accountable. I agree.

    Ask your Democratic candidate if he or she is willing to publicly condemn New Jersey senator Robert Menendez — tried for public corruption and admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee for doing favors for a wealthy contributor in exchange for lavish gifts — the way that so many conservatives condemned (and ultimately rejected) Roy Moore.

    Democrats claim that now is the time to reject the politics of personal destruction. They look at a president who calls people names, who spins out wild conspiracy theories (Ted Cruz’s father participated in the Kennedy assassination? Really?), and they demand better. I agree.

    Look at your Democratic candidate’s actions regarding Brett Kavanaugh. Did they credit facially implausible gang-rape allegations? Did they presume his guilt and declare they “believed survivors” even without substantiation and in the face of contradictory evidence? Did they participate in a campaign to destroy a man’s life and career, only to drop the whole matter the instant he was confirmed?

    Democrats decry Republican extremism and alarmism. They look at wild claims about the border caravan, wasteful troop deployments, and alarmist rhetoric about criminals and Middle Easterners. They condemn family separation. They decry Trump’s “enemy of the people” rhetoric. They believe that Trump and his allies are dangerously raising tensions in the American body politic. I agree.

    Ask where your Democratic candidate stands on Hillary Clinton’s rejection of civility, Cory Booker’s call for protesters to “get up in the face of some congresspeople,” Eric Holder’s declaration that “when they go low, we kick them,” or Maxine Waters’s ominous demand that “if you see anybody from that cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them, and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.”

    And while you’re at it, ask your Democratic candidates if the challenge of Donald Trump is so grave that they’re willing to moderate their positions on abortion, immigration, health care, gun rights, or religious liberty even in the slightest to win your support.”

  730. mnw says:

    Tina

    No, not at the rally. 3-hour drive. At my age, I just can’t muster the energy. If I was going to go to one, I would’ve gone to the Murphysboro, IL rally, which was closer, but I didn’t. Don’t know where to park my poor dog.

    The line in Cape started forming 8-hours before showtime, I read. Not a bad little crowd Trump has there…for a night with weather like arboreal hell.

  731. NYCmike says:

    Yikes….jason and I were linking articles from Instapundit at the exact same time….scary!

  732. phoenixrisen says:

    Time for a reality check as I said eariler please let the Change Research poll be true regarding Michigan.

    Stabenow 53
    James 44

    2% undecided

  733. phoenixrisen says:

    That is from Trafalgar

  734. jason says:

    jason and I were linking articles from Instapundit at the exact same time….scary!”

    Geezus

  735. mnw says:

    When somebody fainted in Cape just now, & thereby caused a delay for the medics to get there, the crowd started singing Amazing Grace.

  736. CG says:

    Final predictions-

    Governor:

    24 D (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 5 Tossup)
    26 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 5 Tossup)

    Democrat net gain of 8
    Republican net loss of 7
    _________________________________________________
    U.S. Senate:

    47 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
    53 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

    Republican net gain of 2
    _________________________________________________
    U.S. House:

    225 D (158 Safe, 33 Likely, 15 Leans, 19 Tossup)
    210 R (97 Safe, 70 Likely, 26 Leans, 17 Tossup)

    Democrat net gain of 30

  737. mnw says:

    Change polls suk.

  738. CG says:

    If somebody is quoting David French here, they are probably correct.

    I cannot envision that there is anything that David French believes about either DJT or Democrats that I also do not happen to share.

  739. phoenixrisen says:

    Color me skeptical on the change polls but there has been an enormous Twitter push for John James in the last 24 hours from notable conservatives and people everywhere around the country. There is tremendous excitement for this guy and a lot of out of state people pulling for him tomorrow, nothing what I have seen with any other GOP candidate up for election. Also, MG will have to verify but there are John James yard signs everywhere in the state, like big time from what people are saying up there. Funny thing, a reporter got caugh saying with expletives because she wasn’t aware she had disconnected that Michigan electing John James to the Senate would suck.

  740. Paul says:

    Glad the Trump campaign spent money on an ad that almost no one will see by the time of the election.

  741. CG says:

    Thank you for alerting me to the new David French column

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/democrats-havent-earned-your-vote-midterms-2018/

    I agree with every word, as I often do with his columns.

    Trump is not on the ballot this year. Individual Democrats, Republicans, and Independents are. The best person should win each race. Democrats should not earn any votes simply because they are not Trump and Republicans should not earn any vote simply because they are not Democrats.

    In 2020, Trump may or may not be on the ballot. If he is, the proper time to vote against him and to send a message to him, is then, which is something else I agree with David French on.

  742. lisab says:

    Glad the Trump campaign spent money on an ad that almost no one will see by the time of the election
    ————————–

    it played during the patriots-greenbay game, exactly when the game was tied up by greenbay

    it was seen by millions nationwide

    and then all over the social media sites

    however, it won’t change the minds of any of the trump supporters or anti-trumpers

  743. Scooterboy says:

    Well I’ll be damned. Waingrow tried to steal my thunder again in 727. I already posted that in 614. Good Lord man, twice in one day?

  744. JeffP says:

    Yep…John James top 10 trending name on Twitter for last few days!

  745. Cash Cow TM says:

    OK.

    Yes, Trump being POTUS is 1000x better than corrupt Hillary being POTUS.

    ‘BUTT’…

    Here are the biggest ‘BEEFS’ Cow has with Trump.

    l. He is an imbecile and a boob lacking ‘BRAINS’. He says outrageous things that are easily proven as not factual, false, bombastic, etc. that kneecaps his credibility. He serves up material for the TV talk show and late night comedians to become the ‘BUTT’ of their jokes. [TRUMP: I am thinking of dealing with the Birthright Citizenship of illegal through an E.O.”–unaware of the little matter of the 14th Amendment.]

    2. He thinks it is all about him. And that EVERYONE who voted for him LOVES him as a person and embraces everything he says and does. He is as narcissistic as Obama. [I could not bring myself to vote for him and wrote in McM, but I do wish him to have a successful presidency, and will say he has had more successes than I thought he would. there are a number of thing he has done like SCOTUS appointments that I stand ‘SHOULDER’ to ‘SHOULDER’ with DJT.]

    3. He cannot stop harmful tweets that often boomerang and become net negatives to the conservative agenda and the GOP in general. He tries to “MILK’ some minor issues to death. Always trying to poke someone in the ‘RUMP’ over something. Some of his tweets are ‘UDDERLY’ ridiculous.

    4. His personal life (background, multiple marriages, hookups with porn stars, etc., etc., etc.) is a mess. He was a D, then an R, then an Indy, then nothing, did not vote for a long stretch, then an R. Was for the war…was against the war. Just as WJC will go down in history as ‘BJ Clinton’, DJT will go down in history as reprehensible ‘President crotch-grabber’ or ‘President Tweeter’ (even though all of his womanizing crotch-grabbing was apparently done prior to his being in the White House.

    5. Unlike Reagan, DJT has no moral or well thought out, articulated and long-held ideological compass, and instead facts show he changes views like a chameleon. [Gave big money to liberal Ds, gave big money to conservative Rs,…all over the place…]

    6. He is less articulate than a 6th grader, suffers from ‘HOOF’ in mouth disease…and a HORRIBLE public speaker…pity the fool who tries to coach him on public speaking, to lose his smugness and looks and smiles of “the Joker”, to show some visible signs of empathy, (and those various repetitive hand motions he always uses when he speaks drive me crazy). Good conservative Rs everywhere have to defend themselves and explain to press and public the statements of DJT where he talks about some conservative R policy and screws it all up…The press is always trying to ‘ROAST’ Republicans over some controversial comment DJT made.

    7. He engages his ‘TONGUE’ before his brain kicks in; he lets the press bait him, falls for their stupid questions and is too dumb to give an intelligent answer; he trips over his ‘TONGUE’ too many times and makes unforced errors and creates controversies and raises his negatives [and this helps to throw cold water by association on ‘conservatives’, and all GOP where there should not be any. [“PRESS: Hey Pres. Trump. Nikki Haley has announced she will be stepping down as amb. to U.N. Do you think you will appoint your daughter to replace Haley? TRUMP: “My daughter would make a great amb. to the U.N.!” –What Trump SHOULD have said, was “Don’t be silly. At the appropriate time I will appoint someone that is ever bit as good as Haley has been.”; PRESS: “Pres. Trump, will you order the troops you are sending to the border to fire on the illegals?” TRUMP: “Well if they throw rocks, then the troops will fire on them.” Any of us here could have given a better response than that…]

    8. He makes public war on HIS own appointees (like AG Sessions or his 1st SOS, etc.) and on the rest of GOP even AFTER the primaries and his election (Ryan, Romney, any R official who raises questions about or contradicts the direction / statements or rightly takes issue with what DJT does or says.)

    9. He comes across as a bully, a sexist and a despicable person. President Reagan would kid and, dasre I say ‘RIB’, his political opponents in a way that Reagan came out on top…but Trump lacks that ability.

    10.DJT made some good choices in his cabinet and who he brought into the White House, but made some bad choices as well. Bigger turnover in first 2 years when comparing presidents. Has created turmoil and glitches in accomplishing more.

    11. Does not understand and refuses to learn how his role as elected POTUS is different from “campaign mode Donald”. You undercut your degree of success by throwing hand grenades publicly at leaders in your own party.

    12. He does not understand how to / or refuses to modify behavior as POTUS to be more likeable and to show he is trying to be president of all Americans. He does not try to appeal to people on the ‘FLANK’. I hope he grows into the job eventually…
    #########################################
    Cow felt the above had to be said.

  746. Cash Cow TM says:

    Cow will ‘STEAK’ her reputation on the words she penned. 🙂

  747. Cash Cow TM says:

    Is Stabmenow’ opponent James any relation to Jesse?

  748. Victrc says:

    So I am going with a rather pedestrian +2 in the Senate only because I expect one of NV or AZ to fall. With that said I would not at all be shocked to see +4 by nights end (with Scott being number 4 along with ND, IN and MO)

    In the House I have really thought about this a lot. I have a bit of a unique insight and am able to see how each side is reacting. Dems are FAR MORE WORRIED than they were four weeks ago when they thought +35 was a forgone conclusion. I don’t see either side topping 220 seats. With that said I believe that the electorate is again being overlooked, young voters won’t turnout as expected and it is 219-216 R house.

    In my most negative prediction I think the socialist in FL wins, which is going to be horrible for the state. We were contemplating moving some business there, but I will never mi e there if this guy is Gov.

  749. Cash Cow TM says:

    I will say that I am amazed that Trump has not bled more of the oldest voters in the population–especially little old ladies who would be horrified by actions and statements of Trump they view as “less than presidential” based on what they have seen during their lifetimes.

    Now the oldest of the male voters I can see approving more of Trump, as they would be the typical “get off my lawn” folks.

  750. lisab says:

    His personal life (background, multiple marriages, hookups with porn stars, etc., etc., etc.)
    ——————————————–

    out of curiosity, why do you care?

    reagan and mccain were both divorced, and their ex-wives did not get along with them,

    unlike trump’s ex-wives

  751. lisab says:

    they view as “less than presidential” based on what they have seen during their lifetimes.
    ———————————————

    the thing is, most women have seen a lot

    trump seems pretty mild to me, at least based on what we know so far

  752. Cash Cow TM says:

    Ford was divorced too.

    Lots of people get divorced nowadays.
    Walt’s brother-in-law has been married 4 times (3 due to divorce–but in each case the fault of the wife.
    Walt’s brother–2 prior divorces (some the fault of him and some his two ex wives.

    But as far as I know other presidents did not have nearly as much personal baggage…

    L

  753. lisab says:

    But as far as I know other presidents did not have nearly as much personal baggage…
    ————————————-
    ummmmmmm … read a book sometime

    (ok that was mean … but at the least, jfk, lbj, ford, reagan, and clinton were worse and if you include drugs, ** perhaps ** bush 2, and obama have had at least as bad.)

  754. lisab says:

    in fairness, ford was not so bad

  755. lisab says:

    seriously, jfk, lbj and clinton … eeeeek

    trump is not in their class

  756. lisab says:

    3 due to divorce–but in each case the fault of the wife.
    ————————–

    doubt that

  757. lisab says:

    don’t get me wrong,

    being against trump is completely justifiable

    but as a woman, his relationship with women is just not that bad compared to most men with a billion dollars

  758. lisab says:

    funny the number of people who replied to rubio that voted dem

  759. ReadyFirst says:

    Key board warriors trying to make a difference.

  760. ReadyFirst says:

    *Keyboard.

  761. phoenixrisen says:

    Holy cow.

    Michigan returned absentees are 43% higher than 2014 and only 15% less than 2016 across the board. Just wow.

    https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/11/day_before_election_michigan_a.html

    Take a look at the table regarding returned absentees. Trump counties are way above 2014 totals. On the flip side, Democrats look good as well but the Wayne County figure has to worry them. Only 32% above 2014. Genessee county is somewhat “tepid” you could say with 30%. Washtenaw and Ingham look decent for the Democrats. Most Trump counties on average are around 45% or higher. The big GOP counties of Kent and Ottawa counties are at 67% and 52% above 2014. Macomb is at a concerning 35% but still looks great.
    Rural counties are off the hook for the GOP. Crazy absentee returns there. If I am looking at these numbers as a Democratic strategist, I would be very, very worried. The Democrats will need to turn out huge on Election Day to match GOP turnout which has always been a traditional advantage.

  762. ReadyFirst says:

    Black vote in FL stands at just a hair under 13% for EV/AB. This is cumulative for DEM and NPA. The Orlando Sentinel definitely had it wrong.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/electionsmith/status/1059665686073655296

  763. lisab says:

    Key board warriors trying to make a difference.
    ——————————

    yeah, but i saw more dem than gop posters

  764. phoenixrisen says:

    Just was wondering and a theory I have in my head. Change Research is a left leaning pollster, kind of like PPP.

    Three races to point out:

    Cruz/O’Rourke tied
    James/Stabenow, Stabenow +2
    Rosendale/Tester, Rosendale +6.

    This looks like a tool to drive up Dem votes where they are wanting to win or hold onto seats that they are concerned about losing. Makes me wonder.

  765. ReadyFirst says:

    Senator John James would be nice Phoenix. Time will tell.

  766. ReadyFirst says:

    770. lisab. That’s because the Rep posters are taking Marcos advice silly.

  767. phoenixrisen says:

    James is going to win!!!

    MEGA BOOM!!!!

    Mitchell Research

    Stabenow 49
    James 46

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Mitchell_Poll_Press_Release_11_5_18_A.pdf

  768. ReadyFirst says:

    774. Awesome!

  769. phoenixrisen says:

    Braun 42

    Donnelly 41

    Harris (Alliance)

    Stick a fork in Donnelley. He is toast. 41% support. Braun wins by 5 at least.

  770. lisab says:

    That’s because the Rep posters are taking Marcos advice silly.
    ————————————

    i hope you are right

    but i think too many people are weak like robbie/cg.

  771. ReadyFirst says:

    I have to admit, given that Gillum is on the ticket, I expected Black voting numbers to be much higher. They’re actually just tracking along with their percentage of registered voters. And that is factoring 320k Black NPAs who may not vote Dem. Nothing is over for anyone in FL, and with 200k net super voter ballots coming tomorrow for the GOP this isn’t looking bad.

  772. GF says:

    774- If that’s remotely true, James has a legit chance. I’d trade the governor’s office for James any day; he has rock star potential (plus, an extra Senate seat is critical these six years).

  773. phoenixrisen says:

    GF, Mitchell Research is one of the prominent pollsters in Michigan. They are legit.

  774. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Can someone please explain to me why Real Clear Politics moved the TN Senate race overnight from Lean R to Toss-Up? I see no evidence in their averages that Blackburn(R) will not prevail.

  775. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Found these EARLY voter numbers from Target Smart, a Democrat firm. On first glance, they look pretty good for GOP, though as always you don’t know how many voters are crossing over

    ARIZONA
    R 41% (+7)
    D 34%

    FLORIDA
    R 41% (+1)
    D 40%

    GEORGIA
    R 50% (+6)
    D 44%

    INDIANA
    R 56% (21!)
    D 35%

    MONTANA
    R 47% (+18)
    D 29%

    NEVADA
    D 42% (+4)
    R 38%

    TENNESSEE
    R 63% (+34!!)
    D 29%

    TEXAS
    R 53% (+14)
    D 39%

    (H/T: RRH)

  776. EML says:

    6AM voting report – it was nothing like 2016 here, but turnout did seem a bit higher than usual. I got in line about 5 minutes before 6. #5 of 8. All white men between the ages of 40 and 85. By the time I left, maybe 20 people – 18/20 old white men. Probably highest 6AM turnout for a midterm I’ve seen.

  777. MichiganGuy says:

    Let’s Get Ready To Rumble!

  778. Bitterlaw says:

    Let’s get this party started! Off to vote on the only day people should vote – Election Day!*

    *Unless they vote absentee because of military service, infirmity, or travel.

  779. Skippy says:

    137 million votes were casted for the Presidency in 2016.
    Expected 105.5 million votes will be casted for the 2018 midterms.

  780. JeffP says:

    If James is that close in Michigan he has a 50/50 chance. Wow. He has been HOT on social media.

    Voting now in Indiana. Turnout good.

  781. JeffP says:

    Not sure what to think of Targetsmart…

    All I know is that based on their models it looks like a Red wave to me. Probably off in several states.

  782. Wes says:

    If James topples Stabenow it will be easily the biggest upset of the night. I predict he will not.

  783. MichiganGuy says:

    Some bad weather today! Be prepared.
    .
    https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1059758289771065349

  784. Skippy says:

    At breakfast this morning my Wife and I just said a prayer for John James and his Wife and kids. It wasn’t a prayer for victory, it was a prayer for strength to give this man and his family the endurance to persevere as they continue to keep serving our beloved country regardless of the results tonight.

    Having said that….go James!!

  785. Bitterlaw says:

    I set the overunder on how late the polls will be allowed to stay open in Easy St. Louis at 11:00 pm on December 1st.

  786. Tina says:

    Brenda Battel, a white feminist, was fired after being caught on tape disparaging John James, an African American candidate for Senate.https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/05/reporter-fired-john-james-midterms/
    9:02 PM – Nov 5, 2018

  787. Bitterlaw says:

    Pretty heavy turnout for a midterm in my PA town. Fairly even party registration here but Hillary crushed Trump here in 2016.

  788. Mike in Dallas says:

    I’m off to Church and then to work — voted absentee for Texas Republicans.
    Bye, Beto!

  789. Tina says:

    Beta male is the drat front runner for 2020.

  790. gameboy says:

    Just voted in Easttown Twp., PA. Was #13 in line….about 20 or so people behind me. Maybe a tad above average for a midterm.

  791. DW says:

    Good morning election day…when Democrats will come out in force to vote for a STOP to all the new jobs being created and all the growth of personal wealth.

  792. dblaikie says:

    I don’t know if James is going to win or not. It will be an uphill climb for him, but a doable climb. For the last couple of months I have been writing that he has a real chance. Again it will all come down to how much he cuts into the Debbie’s strength in Wayne County. Clinton got 65% in 2016. If it goes below that, and James mirrors Trumps vote in MacComb then we will have a new Senator from Michigan.

    Another county to watch is Oakland. That is the land of rich, country club Republicans. Trump lost it getting 48%. If James makes inroads there that will be big. He lives in Farmington Hills which is the 2nd largest City in the county. It is ranked in the top 30 cities in the nation for income, and it is one of the poorest cities in the County. The county often goes GOP, if it does for James — then Debbie has the uphill climb.

  793. SoHope says:

    Just gave my horribly vial (but reliably republican) ex-wife directions to which polling place was hers that along with my vote as my contribution to the cause.

  794. MichiganGuy says:

    SoHope, thanks for taking one for the team. Way to go man.

  795. SoHope says:

    If John James wins he from this moment forward always be referred to as F’ing John James.

  796. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    All the Florida early vote is in except for yesterday’s activity in one County–St. Lucie.
    1) The Democrat ballots are 22,353 above the Republican ones.
    After the weekend, the Dem. lead was 24,755 so Republicans gained about 2,400 ballots yesterday via Panhandle voting.
    2) It appears that with respect to mail-in ballots, the Republicans left about 320,000 ballots unreturned, the Democrats 423,000.
    3) in 2016 on this day, Democrat ballots received were about 95,000 ahead of GOP ones so the GOP did better this year in early voting by approximately 70,000 ballots.

  797. Skippy says:

    Florida EV + VBM

    Democrats +22,353

    Terrible number for the Democrats.

  798. JeffP says:

    799 Great take on Michigan. The return ballot margins, social media impact, Trump effect in rurals, Western Michigan Bible Belt, Independent lead in recent polls and most of all momentum makes me give him the edge. The reporters voicemail is a huge state and national story.

    BTW…Go Blue!

  799. jaichind says:

    What I am fearful of is a repeat of 2017 VA gov race where the Dems over-performed polls
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html

    On the other hand EV signs were there for Dem over-performance
    https://wtop.com/virginia/2017/11/record-midterm-absentee-voting-va-governors-race/

    which does not seem to be there this time. In fact EV tends to give the GOP a leg up.

  800. jaichind says:

    Anyone with info on how Dixville Notch voted ?

  801. Waingro says:

    Trump going to Ohio yesterday instead of Michigan was a big mistake. What a big missed opportunity. Momentum is there!

  802. Chicon says:

    Where’s Robbie? I was hoping for a report on the mood at Daily Kos.

  803. phoenixrisen says:

    Wain, he is probably playing it coy like he did WI in 2016

  804. MichiganGuy says:

    It’s raining and windy (40 mph) here. So, we will see how that affects turnout.

  805. Paul says:

    Dixville Notch
    10 votes for Beto
    2 votes for Cruz
    1 vote for Libertarian

  806. Barrett says:

    Hey folks, just an update here.

    Went to vote this morning, in my fairly secluded conservative town in Northern Baltimore County.

    The lines were absolutely packed, it took me 40 minutes longer to vote than I thought it did. People are showing up in droves, and they are all republicans. This is the highest turnout since I’ve lived in this community for 50 years.

    No secret that I’m a Libertarian. Also no secret that I agree with you guys far more than I would ever agree with a Democrat. So good luck to the Republican Party tonight. As far as I’m concerned, they deserve to hold a majority of governorships and both legislative chambers.

  807. Phil says:

    Uh oh. Beto is going to sweep New Hampshire.

  808. phoenixrisen says:

    812 —. That’s interesting. I know there is a Dixville Not h in New Hampshire but wasn’t aware of a town with that name in Texas. ?

  809. jason says:

    and Republicans should not earn any vote simply because they are not Democrats.”

    I think they should.

    GFY.

  810. jaichind says:

    Just voted at my kid’s school with my kid. This is a NY suburb. My precinct used to be very strong with GOP but only went Trump 50-45 in 2016. Turnout seems normal for midterm.

  811. jason says:

    I have had an advance peak at the 8 AM exits, and they look good.

  812. jason says:

    Let’s get this party started! Off to vote on the only day people should vote – Election Day!*

    *Unless they vote absentee because of military service, infirmity, or travel.”

    Zzzzzzz. I voted early because I felt like it.

    GFY.

    Ok that is 2 GFY’s in the last 5 minutes, I better slow down so they will last until this evening.

  813. JeffP says:

    @ericmetaxas

    ELECTION PREDICTION! Nate Silver will look for a new job.

  814. phoenixrisen says:

    GOP enter today with a 154K absentee bote lead in Mivhigan.

    https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

  815. JeffP says:

    What really cracks me up is all these never Trumpers not acknowledging the great position the GOP is in today based on early vote…just negative Nancy’s like Deace, Shapiro, etc…like if the Dems take the house that in their mind justifies them rejecting Trump…to hell with the country.

    BTW?..Kasich will run third party in 2020 to split vote and stop Trump…for the good of the country of course. Self righteous pig.

  816. phoenixrisen says:

    Targetsmart shows 875K absentees received, Mlive showed 993K absentees received. Wonder if Targetsmart source is slightly older and hasn’t updated yet.

  817. JeffP says:

    821…not sure what to think of Targetsmart?!?!? I guess we will know tonight. I bet they are better than Silverhack though.

  818. SoHope says:

    Voted at 8:45 at in a deep red suburban town outside of Charlotte looked very Republican decent crowd and was voter number 281. GOP handing out sample ballots at all paths of entry. Feeling good about the NC constitutional ammendments that the Republicans are proposing. Not so good about NC judges. Also saw 2 COEXIST bumber stickers on cars in the parking lot….

  819. jason says:

    I think Braun will set the tone for the evening and we should know fairly early.

    If he wins it might not be a bad night for the GOP.

    If he loses it’s probably a bad sign for the rest of the country.

  820. jason says:

    I know there is a Dixville Not h in New Hampshire but wasn’t aware of a town with that name in Texas.?

    Huh, Paul Troll was not at the top of the troll gene pool, you have probably noticed.

  821. Paul says:

    General question: Give me a rating from 1 to 10.
    Is this the most consequential election of our lifetime (10). Or is it just like any other election (1).

  822. EML says:

    I give it a 2.
    What will the GOP do differently if they keep the House. Nothing, certainly not overturn obamacare
    Dems won’t win senate and won’t be able to stop judicial nominees. If they win the House, so what, we are just deadlocked for 2 years. If they do win, it probably means re-election for Trump as Democrats will become even more shrill and temper tantrumy.

  823. Mike in Dallas says:

    IT’S A 9 1/2 – NOT A 10, BUT CLOSE.

  824. sane_voter says:

    Election is a 7 due to the Senate control and impact on judicial nominations.

  825. wheelz91 says:

    Predictions:
    Senate: + 7 R (IN-FL-MO-ND-MT-MI-MN2)
    House: 228 R & 207 D

    Could be a surprise OH-WI FOR SENATE.
    I know this is wak-a-doodle but I see a huge republican turnout and I think I’s will go RED!

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