EGO BOOST
HEDGEHOG REPORT SOCIAL NETWORK

Search

Election Day Morning Thread

Provide your Election Day anecdotal evidence of voter turnout that everyone will project to mean whatever they want it to mean….

Posted by Dave at 9:05 am
Filed under: General | Comments (585)

585 Responses to “Election Day Morning Thread”

  1. phoenixrisen says:

    First!

  2. phoenixrisen says:

    Reporter who left infamous voicemail for John James campaign unknowingly has been fired. https://nbc25news.com/news/local/local-reporter-fired-after-leaving-inappropriate-voicemail-for-john-james

  3. DW says:

    Just went out and drove around looking for the blue wave, but alas, it can only be found in the news stories so far. All the polling places I drove past looked like ghost towns. And I live in an area that is fairly evenly split…so no red wave either, but it there was a blue wave in VA Beach, it must be washing up at the ocean front.

  4. DW says:

    FL_15 – St. Pete

    Carlson (D) 44%
    Spano (R) 46%

  5. DW says:

    OH_01 – Change Research (D-Int)

    Pureval (D) 44%
    Chabot 47%

  6. DW says:

    Trafalgar:

    O’Rourke (D) 43%
    Cruz (R) 52%

    Tester (D) 50%
    Rosendale (R) 49%

  7. SoHope says:

    Voted at 8:45 at in a deep red suburban town outside of Charlotte looked very Republican decent crowd and was voter number 281. GOP handing out sample ballots at all paths of entry. Feeling good about the NC constitutional ammendments that the Republicans are proposing. Not so good about NC judges. Also saw 2 COEXIST bumber stickers on cars in the parking lot

  8. DW says:

    as a follow-up to #3, back in 2008 the polling places were jammed all day with long lines of African Americans to vote for Obama.

    Today they were empty.

  9. jason says:

    I think Braun will set the tone for the evening and we should know fairly early.

    If he wins it might not be a bad night for the GOP.

    If he loses it’s probably a bad sign for the rest of the country.

  10. jason says:

    I know there is a Dixville Not h in New Hampshire but wasn’t aware of a town with that name in Texas.?

    Huh, Paul Troll was not at the top of the troll gene pool, you have probably noticed.

  11. jason says:

    The Amish seem to doing what they always do.

    I don’t know what it means.

  12. phoenixrisen says:

    Oof

  13. phoenixrisen says:

    Talking about 8. Not a good sign for Dems nationally if AA’s aren’t showing up in key places

  14. Redmen4ever says:

    My tour of duty was 6 to 8 am at my own voting place. My precinct captain only needed poll-workers for two-hour increments. This year, in addition to the usual palm cards and candy (for voters with children), we got one red mitten (Michael Jackson-style) in order to show people where to join to red wave.

    We had a steady drizzle of rain and a good turnout of voters.

  15. jason says:

    We are ahead already.

    One MSM fake journalist has been fired.

    ” The Huron Daily Tribune has issued a statement Monday evening after the newsroom management heard a voicemail left by one of its staff writers to Republican U.S. Sen. Candidate John James.

    In the voicemail, Brenda Battel requests an interview with James, who is running against Incumbent Debbie Stabenow. Battel then unsuccessfully disconnects the phone, and is heard saying inappropriate comments about the candidate and the race.

    “I have listened to the voicemail left by Brenda Battel to Mr. James’ campaign, and find no reason to defend this behavior,” said Kate Hessling, editor of the Huron Daily Tribune. “Brenda Battel’s employment has been immediately terminated.

    “The Huron Daily Tribune sincerely apologizes to Mr. James and to the public. These statements do not represent the views of the Tribune as a whole, nor do they reflect the actions of a responsible journalist.”

  16. DW says:

    9–agreed. We don’t have to wait until 9:00

    Here is my analysis and commentary on poll closing times. The idea is anticipate what the early results tell us and how soon the race for Congressional Control will be officially called.

    *indicates only a portion of the state closed, with the rest closing in the next hour due to time zones. Some states are called on the first hour, most are not.

    All times are EDT:

    >> 6:00 pm:

    IN*, KY*

    Some forecasters want to believe IN_02 and IN_09 are just likely R. They probably will both go strongly GOP, but lacking predictive value for the rest of the country.

    The big race this hour is KY_06, ranked a pure tossup by all forecasters. This will be the first early indication as to the direction of the evening.

    As to the senate, obviously Indiana will be right at the center of attention. Should Donnelly prevail, it would keep Democrat hopes alive for takeover, but if Braun wins, then GOP may likely be declared holding the senate.

    >> 7:00 pm:

    FL*, GA, SC, VT, VA

    Florida is split into two time zones but results should quickly come in at the 7 pm close in several key districts including FL_26 and FL_27. Several other seats are ranked Likely R, and would warrant a glace. The same goes for GA_06 and GA_07, both expected to be a close race.

    Also closely watched will be VA_02, VA_05, VA_07 and VA_10. The way these go will be an early indication as to the direction of the whole evening. If the GOP can get by with only losing VA_10, then their hopes of retaining the house are still intact. Any of those others flip and its likely over.

    The big senate race in Florida will also be watched carefully, and not likely be called until late into the night.

    >> 7:30 pm:

    NC, OH, WV

    NC_02, NC_09, and NC_13, along with OH_01, OH_12, and WV_03 will be carefully watched for possible flips from R to D. If the Dems come up empty, on top of earlier misses in VA, FL, and KY, then it could contribute to a growing sense that they are not going to get house control.

    The race to unseat Manchin will be watched, as a test of Trump’s rural strength nationally.

    >> 8:00 pm:

    CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, MI*, NH, NJ, PA, RI, TN, AL, FL, IL, KS, MS, MO, OK, SD*, TX*

    House races to start tracking at this hour: ME_02 (which will take hours to count), MI_08, MI_11, NH_01 (see note on ME_02), NJ_03, NJ_07, NJ_11, PA_01, PA_07, PA_10, IL_06, IL_12, IL_13, IL_14, KS_02, KS_03, TX_07, and TX_32

    Senate races to start watching include TN, MO and TX.

    >> 8:30 pm:

    AR

    AR_02 is a pipe dream for Democrats.

    >> 9:00 pm:

    NY, LA, MI, MN, NE, WI, AZ, CO, KS*, NM, SD, TX, WY

    Another large cache of house races added to the list of those to track: NY_01, NY_11, NY_19, NY_22, NY_27, MN_01, MN_02, MN_03, MN_07, MN_08, AZ_01, CO_06, NM_02, and TX_23

    For the senate: AZ

    >> 10:00 pm:

    IA, ND*, ID*, MT, OR*, UT, NV

    House: IA_01, IA_03, UT_04, NV_03, NV_04, MT_01

    Senate: MT, NV, ND

    >> 11:00 pm:

    ND, CA, ID, OR, WA, HI

    House: CA_10, CA_25, CA_39, CA_45, CA_48, CA_49, CA_50, WA_05, WA_08

  17. Frank says:

    Friends,

    Just returned from voting in Fairfield County, CT.

    Many cars in the parking lot but far from busy. Walked in, showed by ID, got a ballot, filled it out and returned to my car in less than 5 minutes.

    Let’s see what happens tonight.

    Frank

  18. DW says:

    “Not a good sign for Dems nationally if AA’s aren’t showing up in key places”

    Yes, and let me be very specific, the polling areas I checked are for neighborhoods that are roughly 40% AA, 50% white, and 10% Asian.

    Driving around 2008 every last polling place had a line up way outside each building. Today I saw empty parking spaces–nobody milling about going in or going out.

  19. sandiegocitizen says:

    My anecdotal evidence. There is a blue wave!! Saw it on the beach.

  20. jason says:

    At Predictit both Scott and DeSantis are down this morning, so is Heller, around 40%. Donnelly is at 50. Tester at 65%.

    On the up side McSally is now at 60%.

    GOP House is also down to 34%. That’s still better than what Trump had in 2016.

  21. Todd McCain says:

    Just voted in the burbs of Philly; raining very hard here.

  22. jason says:

    If James wins a very narrow victory, say 20k votes, you could probably make the argument the MSM moonbat reporter gave him the election.

    Wouldn’t that be sweet.

  23. Todd McCain says:

    Montana tightened up dramatically. I saw that the GOP leads the EV in Montana by 18 points. Not sure how they calculated then since I don’t think MT has party registration.

  24. Wes says:

    Should I give you guys the normal RRH update, or can you guess the mood over there?

  25. phoenixrisen says:

    #23 — Jason, agreed.

    DW, it is crucial that AA’s come out for Stabenow in Wayne County and the weather is bad that way today. If they aren’t enthusiastic, big problem. Even bigger problem is having an AA as her opponent. Lots of dynamic headwinds against her right now

  26. Scooterboy says:

    Sounds like Schweikart not as bullish on Arizona this morning. The other day he said Sinema was done.

  27. mnw says:

    The Trafalgar poll showing a 1-point race for MT SEN gives me real hope. The Change Research poll in MT, showing Rosendale ahead, did not, because Change also had TX SEN tied.

    Change seems to substitute quantity for quality.

  28. DW says:

    25 – I can guess, the Dems easily re-take the senate, and the GOP loses between 200 and 210 seats in the house.

  29. JeffP says:

    Guess where John James OWNS HIS OWN business….Detroit! Not Grand Rapids, West Bloomfield, etc…that guy has all the boxes checked…if he wins the MSM will begin to destroy him tomorrow.

  30. mnw says:

    SB 27

    You are right. I noticed that also. No more “Enema is finished.” This morning, it’s, “AZ will be a 2-point race. GOP should be OK, if they get normal turnout.”

  31. SoHope says:

    F’ing John James!

  32. phoenixrisen says:

    There is no possible way Sinema wins. She would need 75% of indies to have a chance and historic Dem turnout to offset the GOP EV.

  33. mnw says:

    I hate to throw cold water on dreams, but I think James has no shot.

  34. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Voted at 8:30 a.m. in Ruby Red Avery County NC where The Donald received 80% of the vote in 2016.
    It was busier than usual for a midterm which is somewhat surprising since NC lacks a Presidential,Senate or Governor’s race this year.I wish my vote could move 15 miles West of here for Lee and Blackburn in TN.
    Avery County is in the NC High Country of the Blue Ridge Mountain Range. It is drop dead gorgeous here.

    P.S.- Folks here are so hospitable and kindly ,they let my canine vote as long as I vouched for his conservative credentials.

  35. JeffP says:

    I just put $50 on James to win $250…Also added $50 more to Scott. My $100 on Rosendale is looking good.

  36. Hugh says:

    I’m not sure what Larry is looking at. There has only been positive movement in the ev with another 100k votes added yesterday and a slight gain by McSally

  37. phoenixrisen says:

    That’s ok mnw. But James has got a good shot at pulling this off. We’ll see tonight

  38. GPO says:

    I think Schweikart walked back his pessimism bit saying he misread data

  39. GPO says:

    I obviously want to keep the house , but part of me wonders if a slim dem house with Speaker Pelosi would be better for Trumps reelection .

  40. jaichind says:

    @ 40 GPO. i totally agree and have been making that point. I prefer Dem winning House 220-215 and in 2020 we recapture the House as part of a Trump re-election to something like 230-205. A 220-215 majority is a majority only in name.

  41. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    With respect to Arizona, are you guys confusing Larry Schweikart with Axios’ Jeff Roe, who has been saying for a week now that Sinema(D-Taliban-AZ) is burnt toast?

    jason and JeffP–with respect to PredictIt, the Florida and Nevada races for the GOP candidates look undervalued. I a familiar with Nevada demographics and voting patterns and for the life of me, I do not see how Heller(R-NV) will not win by at least 3 pts.

  42. Albert Hodges says:

    Any notion that putting the DEMS in charge of investigations is just idiotic.

  43. Robbie says:

    The next time this forum cries like babies with dirty diapers about media bias, just remember that FoxNews hosts openly campaigned with Trump and for Republicans last night.

  44. DW says:

    and putting Dems in charge of all the committee assignments.

  45. phoenixrisen says:

    41 (facepalm)

  46. DW says:

    I was in a waiting room this morning and caught a few minutes of the NBC today show and they pretty much let Trump have the floor, showing parts of his speech, and then the Dem story was just a quick mention of the GA Gov race. But they were pretty quick to move on to human interest stories.

  47. phoenixrisen says:

    #44 and as a Republican you’re upset about that? Hmmmmmm. Like CNN and MSNBC don’t do that?

  48. GPO says:

    42. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    I don’t think we are- I believe Schweikart tweeted something negative this morning then deleted it because he had looked at data wrong

  49. mnw says:

    42 Sheep

    No, Schweikart has consistently said that Sinema can’t win, based on EV analysis. I don’t follow Jeff Roe.

  50. Robbie says:

    There’s only one Republican I want to see lose tonight and that’s white nationalist Steve King. He is a scumbag. Republicans can do far better than a moron like Steve King.

  51. jaichind says:

    @46 phoenixrisen. What legislation do you think we can pass if we end up with a 220-215 majority ? I think any Dem House investigation into Trump only helps in for 2020.

  52. Robbie says:

    phoenixrisen says:
    November 6, 2018 at 10:08 am
    #44 and as a Republican you’re upset about that? Hmmmmmm. Like CNN and MSNBC don’t do that?

    – If Don Lemon openly campaigned with Obama, this forum would have melted down.

    I don’t like any of it. I don’t like CNN and MSNBC functioning as Democrats and I despise FoxNews acting as Trump press secretaries.

  53. jason says:

    I think James might have a shot IF the polls showing him only down 3 or 4 points are correct.

    That would show true momentum on his side and it could carry on to election day.

    Plus he has the reporter thing and the weather as last minute bonuses.

  54. DW says:

    If the Dems fail to take the house, there will be meltdowns galore. They will think the solution is to go harder left and they will resort to violence in some places. One could argue it would make their chances to topple Trump harder in 2020 given how radical and extreme they would go between now and then.

  55. Robbie says:

    The fact Larry Schweikart is treated as an oracle demonstrates people search for the news and the views that tell them what they want to hear.

    How did Schweikart’s claim that Romney had Ohio in the bag in 2012 work out?

  56. Robbie says:

    And by the way, I will not be around this evening when the results roll in.

    I will, however, be here tomorrow to receive a well deserved mocking for my predictions or hand out some well deserved mocking.

  57. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag wants the MSM 100% anti-Trump with no dissenting voices and no tweets.

    In other words just like the old Pravda in the Soviet Union.

    Never once did Amoral Scumbag ever complain the MSM was an extension of the WH Communications Office for the 8 years Obama was President, that was fine with him.

    It’s the old “means justify the ends” and Bitter wonders why I call this despicable fraud Amoral Scumbag.

  58. jason says:

    just remember that FoxNews hosts openly”

    LOL

    Hannity is a commentator and talk show host not an anchor.

    All the MSM anchors openly campaign for Dems, did Amoral Scumbag ever complain about it even once?

  59. jason says:

    Sorry, you can’t sugarcoat losing the House.

    I think it would be an absolute disaster and a 2 year circus.

  60. Waingro says:

    “Sounds like Schweikart not as bullish on Arizona this morning. The other day he said Sinema was done.”

    There is no grey area with him, as far as I’m concerned. Either the GOP does well in FL and AZ — places he has been adamant about were “done deals” — and becomes an election guru, or he’s exposed as a total fraud.

    His last minute hedging is not going to change his credibility in my eyes.

  61. Waingro says:

    “How did Schweikart’s claim that Romney had Ohio in the bag in 2012 work out?”

    And see I didn’t even know this. Ohhhh boy.

  62. gameboy says:

    #53 I assume you are not that stupid and just shooting your mouth off. Fox News did not campaign with Trump. Hannity is an opinion guy….not a news guy like Don Lemon claims to be.

  63. phoenixrisen says:

    52 —. Committee assignments, investigations, what legislation comes to the floor for a vote to name a few.

    The thought of seeing Nancy Pelosi grinning like a Cheshire Cat tonight makes my stomach turn

  64. DW says:

    Sabato just cleared out all his House tossups, giving almost all of them to the Ds, along with several Lean R seats like VA_02. I see no evidence locally that Scott Taylor will lose.

  65. Todd McCain says:

    We are going to know early; Jason is right. If Braun wins, it will be a good sign and I think Braun will win as well.

  66. Mike in Dallas says:

    Does anyone think that, if the Dems take the House by only a few seats, some of their “no to Pelosi” folks might be “enlightened” enough to turn to the GOP — for a price, of course?

  67. sandiegocitizen says:

    Agree with the comments about Robbie. Despite claiming to vote Republican, he trolls on behalf of the Democrats. The fact he is not preaching doom and gloom now indicates how uncertain the outcome of today’s election is.

  68. Todd McCain says:

    Guys, Larry Sweikert is a good read, he’s outright BS sometimes. I forced him to delete tweets the other day on Nevada because he was just ridiculously wrong.

  69. DW says:

    Gonzales with some changes too. Basically whatever Siena/NY Times said is gospel to them.

  70. Todd McCain says:

    How does Sinema overcome a 119K GOP lead? I don’t see it.

  71. EML says:

    Does anyone think that, if the Dems take the House by only a few seats, some of their “no to Pelosi” folks might be “enlightened” enough to turn to the GOP — for a price, of course?
    ===========================
    Not a chance. I’ve got one of them here in Anthony Brindisi. Basically all of his commercials were, vote for me because I will vote like a Republican. He will be down the line Pelosi voting leftist.

  72. phoenixrisen says:

    65 — Sabato’s is going to have to give another “We we’re wrong” interview like he did inn Fox News the day after Election Day 2016

  73. Todd McCain says:

    Starting to think Rosendale is going to win; If that EV number is accurate; watch out.

  74. SoHope says:

    I hope the Republicans keep the house but I wonder if it’s such a small margin how many people committed to not voting for Nancy Pelosi for speaker how that would play out if they kept their pledge?

  75. wheelz91 says:

    What is the name of that website that has the early vote numbers by party?

  76. Waingro says:

    Registered R’s up about 3,000 votes in bellwether Pinellas County FL today. Trump won there by about 6,000 votes in 2016.

    https://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Information/Elections/Current-Upcoming-Elections/2018-General-Election/Voter-Turnout

  77. jaichind says:

    @77 Waingro, are those Pinellas County data election day stats or do they include EV ?

  78. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    This is kind of cool. Pasco County FL allows folks to watch the voting numbers on a real time basis in 10 minute intervals. The GOP voting so far today is robust.
    Here is the link.
    Moshem at RRH says that Pinellas County does the same and so far today the GOP ballots are 8.5% higher thad Democrat ones.

    https://www.pascovotes.com/Elections/Turnout1

  79. sane_voter says:

    Sabato may end up being correct this year, but he is still a Dem hack.

    2016 he predicted the Dems would pick up 4 senate seats, 13 house seats and no net governors, and Hillary would swamp Trump.

    Actual results, Senate D+2, House D+6, Gov R+2, trump wins, so he was incorrectly biased towards the Dems on all fronts.

    2014 he predicted the Reps would gain 8 senate seats, 9 house seats and lose 3 governors.

    Actual results, Reps gain 9 in Senate, 13 in house and gain 2 governors. Again incorrectly biased to Dems in all fronts.

  80. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    wheelz91 #76

    Try this link:

    http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

  81. Waingro says:

    #78, jaichind: it’s total votes so far including election day. You can actually scroll down and see total votes for each day since EV began under “date and time”. Almost 60,000 have voted today.

  82. Paul says:

    Adding my question from previous thread.

    General question: Give me a rating from 1 to 10.
    Is this the most consequential election of our lifetime (10). Or is it just like any other election (1).

  83. sane_voter says:

    Election is a 7 due to the Senate and judicial appointments.

  84. phoenixrisen says:

    79- Excellent! The GOP is out in droves as usual on Election Day but they also banked well in EV.

  85. Waingro says:

    #79, Sheeple, those Pasco numbers are slightly disappointing. That was a HUGE Trump area in 2016. Only 44% have voted so far. Hopefully that picks up.

  86. Toast says:

    I’m hoping for a lot of attention today.

  87. phoenixrisen says:

    Indy vote looks tepid in these results out of Pasco and Pinellas

  88. sandiegocitizen says:

    There used to be an old axiom, on election day the vote before 5:00 p.m. was Republican, the vote after 5:00 p.m. was Democratic. Don’t know if it was or is true.

  89. phoenixrisen says:

    86 – nothing to worry about. 3-7 pm surge will happen as people on day shift go vote

  90. marc says:

    I’ve talked to our people in Nassu, Duval(Jacksonville)St John, Flagler and Volusia counties which make up the northwestern coast region of Florida are experience heavy GOP turnout especially in Duval and St John this morning. Democrats turnout is brisk in Flagler and Volusia likely because most have voted early.

  91. Greymarch says:

    Election predictions. House: dems gain 37 seats. The new totals in the house will be dem 230, GOP 198. Senate: GOP gains a seat. New totals will be GOP 52, Dem 48. Some specific election predictions: Nelson wins by 4 in FL. Sinema by 2 in AZ. Walker loses by a few points in WI. Heller wins by 1 in NV – recounts? Perhaps. Donnelly wins by a point in IN. Hawley wins in MO, Cramer wins comfortably in ND, Blackburn wins by 5 in TN.

  92. DW says:

    So looking at Pasco County compared to 2016:

    So far 2018:

    R 71250 45%
    D 51889 33%
    Non Party: 32342 21%
    Other 1309

    2016:

    Trump: 142,101 58%
    Hillary: 90,142 37%
    Other 11,022

    Depending on how the indies break, not exactly looking like any blue wave in Pasco county

  93. Waingro says:

    Some slightly good news in Hillsborough County where R’s are only down by 5% in total ballots cast so far and are winning election day voting by about 4%. Hillary won this county by almost 7% in 2016.

    https://www.votehillsborough.org/?nomo=1

  94. Bitterlaw says:

    Time for the annual “Republicans will win every race in America because my polling place was jammed” posts,

  95. marc says:

    It’s a little more sophisticated then that Bitterlaw, since the debacle in 2012, GOP have been much better of getting out the vote especially on election, done to the science of knowing who has and who has voted at each precinct, this is the case in Florida.

  96. Marv says:

    #95 Bitterlaw

    My sources tell me that there is no line at any Dem precinct anywhere and that the GOP precincts have run out of ballots.

  97. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 10:14 am
    Amoral Scumbag wants the MSM 100% anti-Trump with no dissenting voices and no tweets.
    In other words just like the old Pravda in the Soviet Union.
    Never once did Amoral Scumbag ever complain the MSM was an extension of the WH Communications Office for the 8 years Obama was President, that was fine with him.
    It’s the old “means justify the ends” and Bitter wonders why I call this despicable fraud Amoral Scumbag.

    – Jason fraud, an epic Trump idiot, doesn’t want a neutral press. He wants a press that *checks notes* supports a man he opposed every day during the campaign, refused to vote for, and over whom he left the party.

  98. sane_voter says:

    2016 Election day voting in Pasco
    Donald J. Trump . . . . 61,754 62.2%
    Hillary Clinton . . . . 32,095 32.3%

    Early 2016 pasco vote was 53.8% for trump, 38.9% Clinton

    So E-Day was stronger for Trump and Reps as expected vs early voting.

  99. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 10:17 am
    just remember that FoxNews hosts openly”
    LOL
    Hannity is a commentator and talk show host not an anchor.
    All the MSM anchors openly campaign for Dems, did Amoral Scumbag ever complain about it even once?

    – Jason fraud, who is dumber than warm spit, goes with “whataboutism” to defend something he opposes when the other side does it.

  100. phoenixrisen says:

    GOP turnout high. Some more Florida counties thought red.

    Duval R + 7
    Brevard R+20
    Lee R + 25

  101. Todd McCain says:

    Multiple Florida twitter election peeps saying Broward isn’t hitting the DEM numbers so far.

  102. Robbie says:

    sandiegocitizen says:
    November 6, 2018 at 10:29 am
    Agree with the comments about Robbie. Despite claiming to vote Republican, he trolls on behalf of the Democrats. The fact he is not preaching doom and gloom now indicates how uncertain the outcome of today’s election is.

    – This is what I love about the prissy little crybabies at HHR. If you believe Republicans are headed to a bad election, you must be a troll. Give me a break. In 2006, Wes was called “White Flag Wes” because of his views about that year. Now, the same people who hated him then like what he says today. Why? Because he’s telling them, generally, what they want to hear.

    I would suggest to you that you try harder, but then I remember you think Rasmussen is a credible poll.

    Also, I’ll see you tomorrow.

  103. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    November 6, 2018 at 10:33 am
    How does Sinema overcome a 119K GOP lead? I don’t see it.

    – Isn’t the possible mistake here assuming all Republicans who’ve already voted will vote for Republicans?

    I never like trying to read the goat entrails of early voting.

  104. Waingro says:

    #102, doesn’t looks Broward has a live voting feed like others in Florida. Would love to see that.

  105. Skippy says:

    Pinellas County FL looks good right now. Swing County which has Republicans a hair ahead of 2016 results..at this time.

  106. George says:

    Real Clear Politics moves West Virginia Senate to tossup.

  107. Hugh says:

    Watching Duval which was a flat out tie in 2016. Right now we are behind by about 6k but we are up over 5 in today’s vote. At this rate we should pass them and do a little better than we did in 16

  108. Todd McCain says:

    104. Even if she is losing 15% of the GOP; she would have to be losing indies 2-1 for Sinema even to tie.

  109. Paul says:

    Early exits at 12

  110. BennSue says:

    Went to vote today; waited about 40 minutes and it moved smoothly. Looking forward to the long faces tonight.

  111. Skippy says:

    High,

    Can you provide link to Duval County?

    Thanks.

  112. lisab says:

    Does anyone think that, if the Dems take the House by only a few seats, some of their “no to Pelosi” folks might be “enlightened” enough to turn to the GOP — for a price, of course?
    ——————————-

    actually the gop could swing the gavel to someone other than pelosi if there is a dem opponent

  113. Wes says:

    Greymarch, if Dems gain 37 seats from their current 194, the House will be 232-203. 230-198 isn’t even possible without Indies in the chamber.

  114. Skippy says:

    Richard Baris
    @Peoples_Pundit
    Early, but: In Indiana. Team Blue is outperforming. Team Red underperforming. So far, overall picture looks better than expected for Joe Donnelly.

  115. Phil says:

    Ok, here is my very realistic hope today. Get a split out of Arizona and Nevada. Win ND. Win Mo for a one seat pickup. I’d take that. House? Silver has it at a 39 seat Democratic pickup. I’m expecting that since the GOP base seems to have gotten energized we can hold that down to 31 or 32 seats. Not the greatest election night I know, but it could have been much worse. Would give us 52 senate seats.

  116. William says:

    Breaking news…In Florida Republicans voting on elections day at much higher rates than democrats throughout several bellweather counties including Duval and Pinellas feel good about Scotts chances

  117. Waingro says:

    #115, ugh.

  118. Todd McCain says:

    Baris tells it how it is, good news and bad news. I would take Baris seriously over Sweikert.

  119. Todd McCain says:

    One caveat is that in Indiana, GOP was +21 in the EV over the Dems.

  120. mnw says:

    115 Skippy

    I was going to post that. I wish Baris would provide some detail.

  121. Waingro says:

    “I was going to post that. I wish Baris would provide some detail.”

    Agreed. I assume he is basing this off party registration ballots cast differential, but he just floats out that bomb of a tweet without full context.

  122. BayernFan says:

    Indiana does not have party registration

  123. mnw says:

    The trolls have taken over HHR to such an extent that one of them posts his schedule now. So that you won’t miss a single pearl of his wisdom.

    You have turned one of the biggest fools God ever made (“Looks like Hillary will carry MO too!”) into a rockstar at HHR.

  124. Wes says:

    Indiana has no party registration. Baris must be going off turnout in specific areas.

  125. hugh says:

    In Indiana it voter turnout info is anecdotal because of they do not report or track registration, so predicting turnout is all about location. On Fox they just showed greenwood Indiana which would be heavy republican and there was a forever line. there just isn’t a way to really know what is going on there. EV by area was very good for us in Indiana. the 21% estimated ev lead is not based on party registration.

  126. phoenixrisen says:

    105 —

    Here you go Wain.

    https://www.browardsoe.org/

    Voting for Dems in Broward and Dade look good right now for them.

    GOP is crushing turnout in red counties though, much like 2016.

    For the time being, Florida looks real good for the GOP from a turnout standpoint vs. Dem. However, the indies are the wildcard.

  127. Waingro says:

    #126, so basically he is just spit firing then.

  128. phoenixrisen says:

    Probably the biggest sign of how well the GOP is doing in Florida is the results thus far out of Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough counties. GOP is outperforming Democrats in these counties.

  129. BayernFan says:

    Johnson County Indiana (where Greenwood is) has lots of early voting places so there may have been good EV numbers there. The morning, however, there have been significant problems with some voting hardware in a few locations. Still, long lines have been reported there. No worries.

    https://fox59.com/2018/11/06/voting-problems-long-waits-reported-in-johnson-county/

  130. Waingro says:

    #128, thanks phoenix, but it doesn’t look like they are posting ballots returned anywhere? All I see are the numbers of registered voters.

  131. Waingro says:

    Larry Schweikart
    ? @LarrySchweikart
    7m7 minutes ago

    Hearing two busses near TX border stopped with “Beto” signs, full of illegals, each had $100 and were headed to the polls.

  132. phoenixrisen says:

    Sorry Wain, here is an updated link:

    https://www.browardsoe.org/votersonthego

    Select Voter Turnout and then select Party and that will tell you the current running tally.

  133. sandiegocitizen says:

    Exit polling proved totally unreliable in 2016, there is no reason to assume that situation has changed in 2018.

  134. BayernFan says:

    Also, Vigo County may be a bellwether in presidential races, but it is a Democrat County still. Bayh won there I think (they are from that county). So if Donnelly is strong there don’t bail out. I expect him to do well there. Indiana votes come in quickly after 7pm.

  135. BayernFan says:

    Kavanaugh, Kanye, and Karavan

  136. BayernFan says:

    Don’t worry about Johnson County, Indiana…….. look at the photo….

    https://www.wthr.com/article/voting-issues-reported-johnson-county

  137. Todd McCain says:

    Trafalgar Final Florida:

    DeSantis: 50
    Gillum 46%

    Scott: 49%
    Nelson: 47%

  138. Waingro says:

    #134, thanks phoenix!

    So looking at current ballots returned, it is 55.9% to 22.9% for the Dems.

    Hillary won Broward 66% to 31% in 2016.

    So I would call that a slight positive for the GOP. Hopefully the election day voters continue to shift towards R as well.

  139. Waingro says:

    “Trafalgar Final Florida:

    DeSantis: 50
    Gillum 46%

    Scott: 49%
    Nelson: 47%”

    BOOM! Lets Go!

  140. phoenixrisen says:

    Hillary got 553K in Broward County in 2016, Trump got 261K. There are so far over 310K Dem votes that have been cast in 2018, 127K GOP. 47% turnout thus far in Broward. It is early but I believe the Dems will need to have 65-70% turnout in Broward and Dade to have any shot. This….doesn’t look like it will be enough for the Dems. Any Florida people out there on this blog that can add any thoughts?

  141. DW says:

    If we get those Trafalgar numbers out of FL, then I feel much better about FL_26 and maybe even FL_27

  142. mnw says:

    Trafalgar is real.

  143. phoenixrisen says:

    Uh oh, yeah, I thought the turn out looked good for Dems in Broward and Dade but they aren’t turning out in the numbers needed to offset GOP turnout elsewhere in the state. It’s looking like DeSantis and Gillum are going to win this handily.

  144. mnw says:

    145 P.S.

    Anybody RILLY think DeSantis is doing better than Scott, tho?

  145. Todd McCain says:

    146. Let’s not go crazy; you know darn well South Florida and North Florida play games with holding votes back. Both races are going to be close.

  146. DW says:

    147 – I can see it. Nelson is the incumbent, and Gillum is downright scary.

  147. mnw says:

    LS: “Hearing Watkins is safe in KS, & we’re only losing 1 in CA.”

  148. phoenixrisen says:

    Correction, Scott, not Gillum regarding post 146

  149. SoHope says:

    I looked up the Broward County turnout by party for 2016 vs the current turnout my party and the Democrats have turned out 63% of there 2016 turnout but Republicans of turnout 66% of their 2016 turnout… so there’s that

  150. mnw says:

    LS: “I have the ‘DEM flip list’ down to 28 now, of which they need to win 23, without losing any of their own.”

  151. DW says:

    LS: “Hearing Watkins is safe in KS, & we’re only losing 1 in CA.”

    Must be CA_49 the one that is losing. None of the others were looking like total wipeouts, and in fact the trend in polling for CA_25 and CA_48 was looking good.

    CA_45 would be a surprise hold, as would be CA_10.

  152. EML says:

    There are going to be some disappointed people in here tomorrow. The unbounded optimism is a bit much. Republicans will lose the House and it won’t matter if we pick up even 7 in the Senate…it is still going to feel like a loss. The story tomorrow is going to be: Trump loses bigly; country signals desire to remove him from office. This is a ‘gird your loins’ moment, not a ‘let’s rub it in their faces’ moment.

  153. DW says:

    GOP closing the gap in Duval county FL. Prior deficit was about 6,700 votes, now down to 6,400 votes with latest update.

  154. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks SoHope, let me clarify, the 47% turnout is the total turnout that has happened thus far. I’m talking about 65-70% of all voters turning out in Broward and Dad counties to yield the margins Dems need to have a chance.

  155. gameboy says:

    #147

    Absolutely. Nelson is your classic “seen but not heard”….won’t really do any damage. Gillum is a guy who will do serious damage if he gets in there. I’m quite certain the DeSantis margin over Gillum will exceed Scott’s margin over Nelson.

  156. DW says:

    EML, I don’t pretend I know what is going to happen. Nobody knows for sure. But I am looking at the data coming in, and I don’t see a blue-wave yet. Even without a huge blue wave the Dems could capture the house. I don’t have unbounded optimism, but this thing is wide open and could go either way as to house control.

  157. mnw says:

    If Schweikart is right about Watkins (R) being safe in the KS-02 open seat, that could be significant, because that seat is the second-closest to DW’s magic line.

  158. DW says:

    Here is the latest dashboard with all the changes. It is clear to me that we are not headed for a strong blue-wave or any red wave, so I am chopping it down to size, eliminating most of the likely R or likely D seats.

    Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
    ————————————————————————————————-
    C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
    ————————————————————————————————-
    CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
    FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.3
    AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
    SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
    WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
    MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.6
    NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
    AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
    GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4
    NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
    MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
    WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
    OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1
    NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2
    IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8
    VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8
    WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
    PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
    NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4
    FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3
    GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2
    OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1
    VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
    TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
    CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
    FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
    TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
    CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1
    UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
    NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
    MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
    VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
    KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
    NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
    CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
    NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
    IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3
    ——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
    IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
    CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
    NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4
    ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5
    CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
    MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6
    IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6
    NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7
    NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7
    FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.3
    NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6
    MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
    KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
    CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
    NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2
    NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
    AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2
    NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
    AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
    CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1
    PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5
    MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
    FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
    PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
    NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4
    CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

    *indicates open seat

  159. Marv says:

    # 147 mnw,

    Yes, it is quite possible that DeSantis will outperform Scott.
    Nelson is an incumbent who is generally likeable, although it’s time for him to go….he will lose to Scott.

    DeSantis is a US Navy veteran with an impeccable record.
    Gillum is a socialist under both FDLE and FBI investigation for official misconduct.

    I’ve said repeatedly here that the EV/VBM ballot totals are the early indicators of a good night in FL for the GOP.

    There are not enough virtue signaling GOP/INDY white women to tip the election to Gillum.

    Perhaps Trafalgar modeled its final turnout projection to account for the actual EV/VBM ballots returned, the factored in past GOP Election Day performance.

  160. mnw says:

    DW

    RE: KS-02

    I must’ve looked at one of your older dashboards, then. You used to have KS-02 closer to the line, but… it’s still pretty close to it.

  161. Barrett says:

    Just want to repeat what I said this morning. I live out in a remote area in the most northern part of Baltimore County. Very conservative area, but also sparsley populated.

    In the 15 years I have lived here, I have never seen such long lines at my voting station. It’s anecdotal, but similar instances are being reported on local news – WBAL, WJZ, and WMAR.

    No secret that I’m a libertarian. Also no secret that I agree with you guys about 75% of the time, certainly more than I agree with the democrats, who have played the dirtiest game of identity politics that I’ve ever seen.

    Here’s genuinely hoping for big GOP victories tonight.

  162. mnw says:

    Marv

    OK. Sounds right.

    In any event, Trafalgar is one of the better ones– which is why The Wise Men always write Trafalgar off as “GOP cheerleading trash.”

  163. lisab says:

    sooooooooooo … anything going on today?

  164. DW says:

    164 – I have a friend in VA who is/was a hardcore Paulbot. Never had anything good to say about the GOP. When I spoke to him a few weeks ago, he sounded like a GOP apologist, talking about ‘us’ and ‘we’ in regards to stopping the Democrats whose level of evil pushed him into alliance with the GOP.

  165. lisab says:

    robbie is upset that hannity likes trump …

    mmmmmmmmmmmmkay

  166. SoHope says:

    I understood what you were saying Phoenix I just wanted to see how the current turnout numbers by party in Broward compared to 2016 Republicans were at 66% of their 2016 total and Democrats were at 63%. If Democrats are going to top of their 2016 performance in Florida it’s going to be because they either dominate Independence they have huge numbers in South Florida. How they’re doing with Independence remains to be seen But Republicans are winning the turnout relative to 2016 in Broward

  167. Marv says:

    mnw,

    Do I recall correctly that you’re a US Navy veteran?

  168. DW says:

    163 – yes, its constantly changing. But KS_02 I had staying R. The Siena poll was telltale–low response for both candidates, and a slight D lead. It said to me the GOP voters were going to vote for the R, but didn’t want to admit it publically because the guy has moral baggage.

  169. phoenixrisen says:

    Holy cow, deep red Collier county Florida already over 60% turnout of registered voters. Geez!

  170. lisab says:

    Do I recall correctly that you’re a US Navy veteran?
    —————————

    merchant marine academy 🙂

  171. DW says:

    Watching these ballot returns coming in for FL counties, its obvious to me that GOP didn’t cannibalize their vote with early vote, which was one of the popular RRH suggestions.

  172. mnw says:

    Marv

    No, I never served.

  173. Paul says:

    67: Dallas: Does anyone think that, if the Dems take the House by only a few seats, some of their “no to Pelosi” folks might be “enlightened” enough to turn to the GOP — for a price, of course?

    Oh of course. They will eagerly join the GOP to create a house coalition. Seeing the light of Trump as Lord and Savior will bring them around. Don’t worry about it.

  174. Marv says:

    #166 lisab,

    Yes….the friggin’ Red Sox are still World Series Champs and I hate it. (I liked Ted Williams and Johnny Pesky…..you can probably guess why.)

  175. JeffP says:

    Anyone think …how Florida votes the country goes today?

  176. Trump says:

    The fact that the trolls have all returned is a bad omen for the GOP.

  177. DW says:

    The Trolls have returned? I never saw that they left.

  178. lisab says:

    Yes….the friggin’ Red Sox are still World Series Champs
    —————————

    yeah well … they used to be a major sports team in massachusetts

    now they are probably 3rd, after the pats and celtics

  179. phoenixrisen says:

    Jeff, Florida is probably a good as a bellweather county regarding mid-terms for the rest of the country pertaining to battleground states as you can get.

  180. lisab says:

    The fact that the trolls have all returned is a bad omen for the GOP.
    ——————————-

    nah … they were active until about 9:30 pm in 2016

  181. mnw says:

    Their presence here has increased geometrically, because they are so well fed. You treat that one threadpig fool like a superstar, for some unknown reason. Half the NON-troll posts here are directed to…Vichey, every day.

  182. SoHope says:

    https://www.browardsoe.org/votersonthego
    Click voter turnout
    Then sort by type and party
    DEMs blew their wad in early votes

    E-Day votes in Broward are
    DEM 40K
    REP 23K
    The percentage margin in that county is going to narrow significantly

  183. Skippy says:

    Looks pretty good in Florida as of right now. GOP will run ahead in terms of percentages in 2018 over 2016 when it comes to percentages in Pinellas County. I’m a little worried about Duval County but if there is one swingy county Dems will perform better in 2018 vs 2016 it should probably be Duval
    County where Gillium is Mayor of Jscksonville.

  184. Marv says:

    #181 lisab,

    Bob Cousy was probably the best below the rim playmaker ever to play in NBA.

  185. Hugh says:

    Wow. Lee county is crushing it

  186. DW says:

    GOP has closed the gap in Duval to 6,226

  187. phoenixrisen says:

    Report from an RRH poster that turnout in Livingston County in Michigan is very high. That went heavy GOP by a 2-1 margin in 2016. This would verify that GOP election day turnout is looking awesome in Michigan.

  188. lisab says:

    You treat that one threadpig fool like a superstar, for some unknown reason.
    —————————–

    i haven’t for the last few days because of the election — to keep the threads cleaner

    but normally i find it amusing to mock him

    you do realize you are one of his closest friends?

  189. BayernFan says:

    Is Pinnellas poppin?

  190. phoenixrisen says:

    The mood is definitely starting to brighten for the GOP posters over at RRH.

  191. phoenixrisen says:

    BF, Pinnellas has 54% total turnout thus far, GOP has just a shade under 4,000 vote advantage in people whom have voted.

  192. Doug Cross says:

    My shot:
    Senate, GOP +2 (ND),(MO), 53-47 GOP
    House Dems +22 (218-217, GOP)

  193. Marv says:

    Shaping up to be a nice day so far in FL

  194. mnw says:

    lisab

    My comment about the trollking wasn’t directed at you. I hadn’t even realized I posted that comment right below yours.

  195. lisab says:

    i think if the gop holds the house

    they are also likely to get more than +2 in the senate

    that would be a shattering loss for the dems if they don’t take the house

    it would likely have party leadership repercussions

  196. DW says:

    You FL folks, can you give me the take on Hillsborough County? Looks like the last several updates Dems are trending equal to the GOP in ballots returned. Was this one of the counties where the GOP was supposed to close the gap in election day polling?

  197. Diamond Jim says:

    CC

  198. lisab says:

    my comment about the trollking wasn’t directed at you.
    ————————–

    ok 🙂

    i do mock them a lot though. i just haven’t engaged with them for the last few days to keep the clutter down.

  199. jason says:

    So Amoral Scumbag really objects to conservative talk show hosts campaigning with Trump and calls the fact 99% of the MSN is openly campaigning for Dems “whataboutism”…if jeb was pres and the msm did to him 10% of what they do to Trump he would be incensed…but since he agrees with them it’s ok

    The guy really has a moral

  200. jason says:

    compass of a floating turd.

  201. jason says:

    The fact soccer moron has returned is a bad omen for intelligent discourse.

  202. lisab says:

    “whataboutism” is a very common kossian term btw

  203. SoHope says:

    Duvall county is Jacksonville….Gillam is mayor of Tallahassee

  204. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is a superstar?

    In bogo pogo?

  205. Hugh says:

    Collier is also crushing it

  206. Marv says:

    DW,

    Please post the Hillsborough County site. Thanks

  207. GF says:

    205- Naturally, it was also a key concept used by Soviets and their sycophants to debate the West e.g. “But, Americans lynch blacks in the South!”

  208. mnw says:

    This is one of the creepiest election things I’ve ever seen:

    In PA-01, the DEMs, i.e., Wallace (D-antisemite) is leaving door hangers, which read:

    “Election Day is just around the corner! Remember, how you vote is private, but whether you vote is a matter of public record”

  209. EML says:

    Each 10 minute update to Pasco County adds about 300-400 ballots to GOP lead.

  210. Skippy says:

    According to my calculations Republican turnout is doing just fine in Hillsborough and Pinellas vs 2016.

  211. hugh says:

    DW so far ED voting in Hills is reps plus 2500. going well

  212. Todd McCain says:

    Trafalgar Arizona Final:

    McSally 47

    Sinema 45

  213. hugh says:

    Stirewalt on fox does no anything about anything. sounds like he should be on msnbc

  214. DW says:

    Strange…sort of quiet at RRH. They are discussing the evils of early voting.

  215. phoenixrisen says:

    Hillsborough Co, Florida update:

    60% of registered GOP voters have voted.
    55% of registered Dem voters have voted.
    36% of indie voters have voted.

    Pinellas Co

    60% of registered GOP voters have voted
    58% of registered Dem voters have voted
    40% of indie voters have voted.

    The GOP is outperforming Democrats in the bellweather counties and elsewhere

    This is happening nationally according to reports. The Dems really need to make a big push in a few hours.

  216. DW says:

    Two years ago on election night coverage from MSNBC, Chris Matthews kept saying over and over that PA was safe for Hillary…until he finally had to cave at the end. He was famous for uttering an expletive into an open mic when NC was called for Trump.

  217. Todd McCain says:

    G O P!!!!

  218. NYCmike says:

    Waingro says:
    November 6, 2018 at 11:32 am

    #115, ugh.

    -Can ALL posters please refrain from accepting any tweets or anything else about “early exit polls”?

    Have we learned NOTHING from Robbie and Lord Arsehat?

  219. Robbie says:

    Impossible. Trump and Rush have assured me immigration is always a winner.

    Erick Erickson
    @EWErickson

    There was a shift in polling over the last few days towards the Democrats, even in the non-public highly detailed polls campaigns use. The President rejecting birth-right citizenship with a proposed executive order will go down as a colossal unforced blunder in American politics.

  220. John says:

    Progressive take on voter turnout…better in the the cities of Florida…enthusiasm down?
    https://thefloridasqueeze.com/

  221. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 6, 2018 at 11:38 am
    The trolls have taken over HHR to such an extent that one of them posts his schedule now. So that you won’t miss a single pearl of his wisdom.

    – I agree. When you disappeared for several years only to return as a Trump ball licking populist, I knew you were a troll.

  222. BayernFan says:

    I love early voting. I vote by mail erry time.

  223. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 12:57 pm
    So Amoral Scumbag really objects to conservative talk show hosts campaigning with Trump and calls the fact 99% of the MSN is openly campaigning for Dems “whataboutism”…if jeb was pres and the msm did to him 10% of what they do to Trump he would be incensed…but since he agrees with them it’s ok
    The guy really has a moral

    – Have you ever thought of becoming a comedian because I’m not sure there’s anything funnier than a guy who hated Trump every day of the campaign, refused to vote for Trump, and left the party over becoming one of Trump’s staunchest defenders simply because the clown won. Talk about morals.

  224. NYCmike says:

    More biblical wisdom from the self-professed devout Roman Catholic:

    “…..only to return as a Trump ball licking populist….”

  225. DW says:

    GOP cut lead down to 5966 in Duval County FL

  226. Justin says:

    #185 – The Dems election day lead has grown from 17K to 20K currently?

  227. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 6, 2018 at 1:01 pm
    “whataboutism” is a very common kossian term btw

    – And stupid is a very common term that comes to mind when I read your comments.

    By the way, did Trump win his lawsuit against the GAO over his transition emails that you said was a slamdunk case last December?

  228. phoenixrisen says:

    Broward County

    49% total turnout (uh-oh) of registered voters thus far

    54% of registered Dems have voted
    53% of registered GOP voters have voted
    37% of Indie voters have voted

    It’s not going to be there for the Democrats. They need a miracle right now. GOP counties approaching or have breached 60% turnout.

  229. NYCmike says:

    Justin,

    Voting ends this evening. Go do some yoga.

  230. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 6, 2018 at 1:25 pm
    More biblical wisdom from the self-professed devout Roman Catholic:
    “…..only to return as a Trump ball licking populist….”

    – That’s why we have confession.

    Still feeling good about the election simply because I have not been optimistic about the results?

  231. NYCmike says:

    I think I am relaxed for this reason:

    I will be happy that Republicans made gains (or hold) in certain races.

    -or-

    I will laugh heartily when Robbie comes on tomorrow and gleefully says “I told you so!”, while also being VERY UPSET about the loss of the House.

  232. DW says:

    232 – which R heavy counties have breached 60%? Pasco is at 49%

  233. NYCmike says:

    “Still feeling good about the election simply because I have not been optimistic about the results?”

    -Sure.

    And knowing that your derangement will continue tomorrow no matter what……President Trump will try to help you get help.

  234. Robbie says:

    Does Jason fraud consider the management of FoxNews to be part of the resistance and amoral turds since they reprimanded Sean Hannity for participating in Trump’s campaign rally yesterday?

    If Jason fraud thinks there was no problem with Hannity campaigning with Trump, then I can only assume he thinks FoxNews is bad.

  235. Barrett says:

    #232 – agreed. Even if voter turnout surges in the evening, it will also surge for the GOP Counties.

    Not what the GOP was hoping for.

  236. SoHope says:

    Broward Co E-day margin 19k+ dem
    Lee Co E-day margin 10k+ gop

    Half of Browards e-day vote plurality is is gone from one county

  237. phoenixrisen says:

    223- Believe it or not, Erickson has always been soft on immigration. This tweet doesn’t surprise me and nothing in the polling in the last few days indicates any shift unless you would be taking heavy Dem samples.

  238. Barrett says:

    Sorry, meant to say “Not what the dems were hoping for”

  239. phoenixrisen says:

    DW, Collier for one.

  240. Justin says:

    #233 – I am way too fat for yoga.

  241. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 6, 2018 at 1:32 pm
    “Still feeling good about the election simply because I have not been optimistic about the results?”
    -Sure.
    And knowing that your derangement will continue tomorrow no matter what……President Trump will try to help you get help.

    – Derangement is voting for Senate candidates who have no chance of winning and continuing to do so. And on that score, you are patient number 1.

  242. phoenixrisen says:

    Another, Lee County is at 58% turnout.

  243. NYCmike says:

    “– Derangement is voting for Senate candidates who have no chance of winning and continuing to do so.”

    -Chele Farley doesn’t have a chance tonight?

    DAGNAbit!

  244. NYCmike says:

    “And on that score, you are patient number 1.”

    -Great, I’ll be able to tee off by 2PM!

  245. phoenixrisen says:

    GAH!! 69% of registered GOP voters have voted in Lee. WOW!!!!!

  246. Skippy says:

    Can someone provide the Lee County link.

    Thanks.

  247. DW says:

    Rs keep chipping away at the D advantage in Duval County, FL. Now down to 5,897

  248. DW says:

    I agree on the importance of FL as a whole as a national indicator. If the GOP has a bad night in FL, its probably a bad night nationally, a good night in FL, good night nationally.

    I recall in 2016 how the R panelist on ABC was one of the first to point out that if the surge in rural FL of Trump voters is real, it means we will see it in other states too.

  249. phoenixrisen says:

    Collier County is at 65% total turnout, 72% of GOP voters have already voted. Just wow. These numbers are off the hook. The Democrats are going to need historic support from indies.

  250. DW says:

    This really is a turnout election as indies should be relatively split, as they waffle between:

    1) I like all the jobs being created and the wealth flowing into my 401k, and

    2) Trump acts like a bully at times.

  251. Scooterboy says:

    Claire McCaskill- I don’t really care if Democrats retake control of Congress.

  252. phoenixrisen says:

    #256 Yup, and the GOP is winning it. Get excited folks. Can’t wait to see these results tonight.

  253. DW says:

    Good news…Messy has started posting at RRH. He should fit right in.

  254. jaichind says:

    Still fearful of a great late afternoon and evening Dem Turnout surge.

  255. marc says:

    I have said ever since the 2012 debacle the GOP in FL devised a system in which it can maximum it’s votes both during the EV and ED. It’s worked since then, will it work this year is the question. Fingers crossed.

  256. Paul says:

    Is Messy a man or woman? I kept thinking he/she was a woman for some reason.

  257. Todd McCain says:

    Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) turnout so far at only 36%.

  258. Scooterboy says:

    263. Is that bad or good for GOP?

  259. phoenixrisen says:

    #263 — OOF!!! That is Sherrod Brown country there. Holy cow. Okay, this is getting really, really interesting.

  260. Joe J says:

    263, where’s Lebron? oh wait..

  261. phoenixrisen says:

    SB, that is very good for the GOP. Does Renacci have a shot? How is the turnout down state and east amongst GOP voters?

  262. Redmen4ever says:

    Russia collusion, Russia collusion, Russia collusion … where’s my safe room, my puppy dog and my coloring books? Not my Senate!!! Not my House of Representatives!!! We won the popular vote!!!!! And if we didn’t, it was because of voter suppression.

  263. Chicon says:

    Don’t the Republicans have a registration advantage in FL?

  264. Scooterboy says:

    Thank you Phoenix.
    I don’t follow this stuff as closely as you folks do, so any added information would be greatly appreciated.

  265. DW says:

    “Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) turnout so far at only 36%.”

    Maybe why Trump stopped in OH late

  266. DW says:

    Duval county gap down to 5612.

  267. Chicon says:

    Mnw – off-topic hockey news. Coach Q fired by the Hawks. Will he return to the Bluz?

  268. Mike in Dallas says:

    Does anyone have an approximate time when the MSM begins its Trump Derangement Syndrome routines?

    In 2016, I think it was about 10 PM EST.

    I found Young Turks, Rachel M. and CNN to be superb!

    Thoughts?

  269. ReadyFirst says:

    Out working precincts on the Space Coast today. Been to many and it is definitively a GOP day here. Very busy in the morning and slower in the afternoon but seeing very few Dems visiting their tents.

    I’m sticking to my multiple posts yesterday about the GOP netting 200,000 votes from the 1.3 million super voters. That’s who’s showing up in Brevard.

  270. Waingro says:

    “DW says:
    November 6, 2018 at 1:51 pm

    Good news…Messy has started posting at RRH. He should fit right in.”

    Good riddance.

  271. Marv says:

    #275 ReadyFirst,

    Net GOP gain of ~200,000 on Election Day would the average. On a good night, it would be a bit more. In any case, I still don’t see many Trump/Scott/Gillum GOP voters.

    That’s why I’m sticking with Scott and DeSantis. (plus Fl Cd’s 26 & 27)

  272. jason says:

    McCaskill and Sinema still underwater at Predictit, but so are DeSantis and Scott and Heller.

  273. SoHope says:

    Republicans are running up the score in red counties on Election Day voting. Clay County is up 8000 election day Republican votes

  274. jason says:

    If Renacci wins it would be a red wave.

    But I don’t see him winning.

    However, DeWine could pull through with a low Cuyahoga turnout.

  275. EML says:

    Cuyahoga County has a turnout map
    https://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/livevoter.aspx

    If you look at this map and say NYTs detailed interactive map from 2016, there is an extreme correlation between turnout and Trump votes. Nearly all of the dark green areas, with the exception of lakewood bay village along lake erie, are Trump country.

  276. DW says:

    From RRH:

    MosheM
    November 6, 2018 at 2:17 pm
    We finally have numbers from Broward!!!
    113.3k votes so far today. D+20 so far today.
    Was D+31.3 in mail ballots and D+37.7 among early in person.
    Republicans are sure voting today.
    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

  277. jason says:

    What are the GOP gurus saying?

    Is Schweikart still optimistic?

  278. SoHope says:

    Duval co racking up 6k+ republican election day voter margin

  279. jason says:

    Does Jason fraud consider the management of FoxNews to be part of the resistance and amoral turds since they reprimanded Sean Hannity for participating in Trump’s campaign rally yesterday?”

    If they did that they are morons. They are just worried about losing ads because some moonbats will call for boycotting their advertisers.

    Hannity is not a news anchor, he never claimed to be non partisan.

    It’s like CNN reprimanding Van Jones for campaigning for Dems. Zzzzzz..

    But you have not problem with a news organization like CNN that has a banner for 20 minutes calling Trump a liar.

    GFY. Amoral Scumbag with the moral compass of a floating turd.

  280. SoHope says:

    Lee Co +11k election day Republican voter margin.

    The gop has eaten into the early vote cushion long ago. Building a lead now. Dems done have the voters to keep pace. Indies are their only hope and i just dont see it.

  281. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Oh No. The Democrats are ahead in voting in Guam. This could be the beginning of a trend. As they say: “As Guam goes, so goes Bogo Pogo.

  282. Todd McCain says:

    Pinellas: GOP ahead by over 5000 votes now.

  283. phoenixrisen says:

    #282

    Broward county update

    56% of Dem voters have voted
    54% of GOP voters have voted
    37% of indie voters have voted

    Overall vote, 50.67% gaining a little over one point since last update. Whomever said that Broward was cooked on election day turnout is right.

    Dems have a very big problem turnout problem nationwide right now.

  284. Todd McCain says:

    66% turnout in Collier County is pretty crazy.

  285. phoenixrisen says:

    Dem Hillsborough County lead now under 10000 votes.

  286. Todd McCain says:

    Rob Costa reports that internals over the weekend were strong, especially for Braun, for GOP senate candidates.

  287. Dylan says:

    Aren’t campaigns that reference or disclose internals losing campaigns? I’ve read that here a lot

  288. Dylan says:

    I voted for far left senate candidate De Leon in Kalifornia this morning just to stick it to DIANNE Feinstein. Lots of people are doing that.

  289. phoenixrisen says:

    Florida looks to be gone for the Democrats.

  290. SoHope says:

    Broward County only has a 24K election day dem margin advantage. That’s literally nothing. Clay County wipes out a third of that margin by itself.

  291. EML says:

    Charlotte County, FL (Trump +28) also crossing 60% turnout. SWFL – Charlotte, Lee, Collier – is killing it.

  292. SoHope says:

    The GOP kept it close with early voting… Now it looks like the Dems ran out of Voters on Election Day

  293. phoenixrisen says:

    Going to keep an eye on Florida, but now the Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin as well as the states of Pennsylvania and New Jersey have really got my attention now.

    Have a Michigan relative just spoke with who lives in Ottawa County which is deep red. Turnout is crazy good, long lines everywhere.

  294. Skippy says:

    #292.

    You are looking at the wrong graph. Dems still lead in Hillsborough by 22,000 votes but the overall percentage GOP is getting per party registration keeps ticking up.

    I do agree…Scott is looking pretty good right now.

  295. Marv says:

    #294 Dylan,

    That’s the conventional wisdom, but in this case it seems that the Senate GOP internals seem to track the national EV/VBM
    GOP advantage.

  296. phoenixrisen says:

    Thanks Skippy, you’re right.

  297. jason says:

    There has been an 8 pt swing towards the GOP in the Fl governors race on Predictit but its still 60-40 Dem.

    Chance to make some money?

  298. Hunter says:

    The Blue Wave was never a wave. It’s gone. Thanks to the great reporting in Florida, it’s clear that there was never a wave at all. Florida goes to Gillum and Desantis. Just like 2016, Florida tells the tale for the entire country. This means that House stays with the GOP and the GOP picks up at least 4 seats in the Senate and probably up to 6.

    -Hunter

  299. jason says:

    I remember in 2016 Kornacki at MSNBC was excited because Hillsborough was going for Hillary, and it was a bellweather.

    That didn’t work out.

  300. Hunter says:

    Yes, it’s time to make some money buying up GOP candidates. Desantis is a great bet. Buy Rosendale too and look out for Morrisey.

    The GOP has shown up, people.

    -Hunter

  301. Marv says:

    #305 Hunter

    I think you mean Florida goes to Scott and DeSantis.

  302. jason says:

    Florida goes to Gillum and Desantis”

    Hunter has it covered.

  303. Todd McCain says:

    Just read on twitter that the GOP is at 70% of its 2016 turnout in Florida, whereas D’s are at 56%.

  304. Hunter says:

    Watch out for James in Michigan too.

    -Hunter

  305. jaichind says:

    Hillsborough Dem-GOP margins seems similar as 2016
    In 2016 it was 40.0%-35.2%
    Now it is 41.8%-37.0%
    Key factors are in day voting should benefit GOP. On the other hand Dems tend to vote later in the day. Most likely Hillsborough will be a wash relative to 2016.

  306. Hunter says:

    #308 Thanks for the correction. What a horrendous typo.

    -Hunter

  307. phoenixrisen says:

    Yup, it’s all over. If this is looking like I am thinking it looks, then you have to turn to the Midwest, particularly Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

  308. SoHope says:

    I’ve been keeping an eye on Election Day votes only. We know they only have a 25K early vote margin. The GOP is dominating E-day votes. Close to the 3k gop margin in Hillsborough co.

  309. jaichind says:

    How is it even legal for the FL election board to collect racial classification information ? Perhaps this is a consequence of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 ?

  310. phoenixrisen says:

    Responding to 310

  311. Marv says:

    Plan to pop a couple of Sam Adams later tonight…….but not until there is a clear GOP national trend.

  312. Hunter says:

    In 2016, it was known very early that rural Florida showed up. This is how I knew that the mid-west was going for Trump.

    It’s the same show. Dems about to be triggered. Can’t wait to catch CNN and catch the latest meltdown. Is Van Jones on tonight? I hope so!

    -Hunter

  313. Skippy says:

    #312,

    I’m not seeing that at all. Hillary won Hillsborough by 6.8% in 2016.

    INDY would have to break massively to Dems in Hillsborough as things look now to duplicate what Dems did in Hillsborough in 2016.

  314. mnw says:

    Trump just gave a special shout-out tweet to Hugin.

    Some speculation among pundits that this could indicate Trump has inside info about that race. It IS odd, imo, that Trump would tweet about that one race in particular.

  315. DW says:

    Just voted in VA_02, in a precinct that’s about 50% white, 40% black and 10% Asian. Very low turnout. When Obama was on the ballot I had to wait in the gym for 40 minutes to get up to the table. Today it was literally 5 seconds, and that was because I couldn’t see one of the workers waving her hand to invite me forward. Too small a sample to deduce anything, but it sure wasn’t any sort of blue-wave.

  316. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Here is a Clark County NV update regarding today’s election day voting from the pompous Jon Ralston.

    Update from Clark County today from Ralston:

    Here’s the breakdown right now in Clark:
    D–29,500 (39.8%)
    R –24,700 (33.4%)
    O–19,800 (27.8%)

    D lead quite small today.

    For perspective, on Election Day in the last midterm, the Dems barely won Clark on Election Day, by 3,000 votes.

    In 2016, the Dems won on Election Day in Clark, 40 percent to 30 percent.

  317. SoHope says:

    I don’t care for Trump. Didn’t vote for him and ’16 will will reluctantly vote for him in ’20.. but every once in awhile I open up YouTube and watch clips from election night from The Young Turks CNN and MSNBC.
    To quote Conan: What is best in life? To crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And to hear the lamentations of their women.

  318. mnw says:

    Btw, Hugin has been at pains to tell NJ that HE’S NOT LIKE TRUMP!

    So, that makes Trump’s shout-out to Hugin even more odd.

    Gotta go get me some more election night medicine now. Must be prepared!

  319. NYCmike says:

    “I voted for far left senate candidate De Leon in Kalifornia this morning just to stick it to DIANNE Feinstein. Lots of people are doing that.”

    -I concur on this.

    If there is going to be a Dem Senator, might as well make it a male, and an crazy one, so that they can’t keep up the charade of being for women and for moderation.

  320. Marv says:

    #315 SoHope

    FL SOS @ 10:09 6 Nov 18 EV/VBM ballots returned is
    DEM+22,752. Was DEM+96,450 in 2016.

  321. Todd McCain says:

    Maricopa county, non city of Phoenix residents: Early ballot returns by Legislative District. Parties: GOP 45.4%, DEM 29.4%, OTH 25.3%. Total ballots is 692k.

  322. GF says:

    316- How do you mean?

  323. NYCmike says:

    “I don’t care for Trump. Didn’t vote for him and ’16 will will reluctantly vote for him in ’20..”

    -I guess the NYC attitude, that we are the Center of the Universe, really rubs people the wrong way.

    LOVE IT!

  324. mnw says:

    SoHope

    That Young Turks thing was the most fun I’ve ever had with my pants on.

  325. BRENT says:

    295 dylan i did the samething,voted yes on 6 and no on 10 and measure w which is such bs

  326. NYCmike says:

    No matter what happens tonight, egg cremes for all of you!

  327. GPO says:

    I like Richard Baris, but so often his tweets are impossible to decipher- I think he is not bullish on Florida

  328. BayernFan says:

    I’d vote for DiFi. At 85 years old there’s a good chance of an early special election….. and who knows? A replacement appointed by Cox?

  329. SoHope says:

    The Blue Wave is now a Blue Cave

  330. mnw says:

    Pollster Richard Baris: “FL D+5 not looking so good right now. However IN, if the turnout so far holds until the polls close, would mean Donnelly wins by +2%. DEMs outperforming & GOP underperforming in IN.”

    (going by memory, but essentially accurate)

    GPO

    I think Baris LIKES GOP chances in FL, but dislikes IN for GOP.

  331. Todd McCain says:

    How couldn’t you like what is going on in Florida? We have actual hard numbers proving GOP doing well.

  332. Hunter says:

    Baris makes no sense, someone change his diaper.

    Rural voters are showing up big time in Florida. There’s a direct correlations with Indiana and the other midwest states. Scott is winning in Florida, this means Braun wins by a margin that is greater than Scott’s victory, probably Braun by 7. Let’s not forget 2016 and what happened to Bye Bye Bayh.

    -Hunter

  333. jason says:

    There is a trend away from Dems at Predictit.

    Nelson down to 57%. Heller has made gains, McCaskill has tanked to 38%. Gillum 12 point swing against DeSantis up to 41%. Tester down to 63%. Morrisey up to 25%.

  334. NYCmike says:

    Hunter,

    Over-confidence is not good.

    Don’t be a Hillary,

  335. jaichind says:

    @ GF 329. What I mean is. FL election website has breakdowns of how many voted by race in addition to party registration. How is that even legal? Unless they were forced to collect this information as part of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 which only covered certain Southern States

  336. mnw says:

    If Baris is right about Braun, & I did say IF, then I worry about Hawley because the 2 states are a lot alike. Trump carried MO by 18 & IN by 20; both states have incumbent liberal DEM senators, both of whom were NO on Kavanaugh.

  337. jason says:

    would mean Donnelly wins by +2%”

    That’s too close for any definitive prediction, I wouldn’t panic.

  338. Skippy says:

    Republicans are killing it in Hillsborough.

    Absolutely killing it.

    3.1% increase over 2016. Dems 0.4%.

  339. jason says:

    If he had said Donnelly wins by 5, ok. But 2….

    Still, I expected Braun to win fairly easily.

  340. DW says:

    D advantage in Duval County FL down to 5,049

  341. mnw says:

    I never panic. I report what I see.

  342. Hunter says:

    #341
    Just looking at the numbers, real numbers. They tell a story that is almost exactly like the 2016 story.

    -Hunter

  343. phoenixrisen says:

    Lee County, FL update:

    71% of registered GOP voters have voted. 60.07% total turnout.

    Collier County, FL update:

    75% of registered GOP voters have voted. 67.43% total turnout.

  344. jason says:

    I am not too worried about Hawley. I think McCaskill has an expired shelf life. Barring a big blue wave I think she is toast.

  345. DW says:

    Lee County FL now over 60% turnout

  346. jaichind says:

    Not sure I see what you guys are talking about in Hillsborough.
    In 2016 Total vote was 609,313. 244,014 were Dem Reg and 214,726 were GOP reg. Which is 40.05% vs 35.24%.
    Now it is 462,955 total vote cast so far. 193,024 Dem reg, 171,097 GOP reg or 41.69% vs 36.96%.
    Gap around the same % wise although GOP is gaining ground as time goes on.
    BUT in the late afternoon as people get off work there will be a surge Dem registered voting.
    It seems we are headed for a re-run of 2016 at least in Hillsborough

  347. DW says:

    From RRH:

    GerGOP
    November 6, 2018 at 3:24 pm
    “Sources inside the white House” so take it with a grain of salt: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/trump-midterm-elections.html
    Trump expecting bad news, acknowledges that he’s sometimes going too far (doesn’t seem to help very much). Very gloomy mood in the WH

    Oh my…that anyone would listen to something like this. Remember election night two years ago, on ABC during the 7:00 hour an ABC panelist confirmed a source that said Trump was already lashing out over what is happening to him tonight.

  348. Waingro says:

    RRH Elections
    ? @RRHElections
    6m6 minutes ago

    As of 2:15PM #ElectionDay turnout in Florida not including Dade & Palm Beach County is 44.3% R, 33% D & 22.7% I

    #FlaPol
    2 replies 6 retweets 5 likes
    RRH Elections
    ? @RRHElections
    4m4 minutes ago

    Statewide #ElectionDay turnout in #Florida was 39.5 R, 34.2 D & 26.3 I in 2016.
    0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes

  349. Todd McCain says:

    Yes, I remember in 2016 that Josh Kraushaar was saying “sour mood over in Trump Tower”….

  350. phoenixrisen says:

    DW, that is complete gross misrepresentation of the NY Times. Complete BS.

  351. Robbie says:

    DW says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:30 pm
    From RRH:
    GerGOP
    November 6, 2018 at 3:24 pm
    “Sources inside the white House” so take it with a grain of salt: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/us/politics/trump-midterm-elections.html
    Trump expecting bad news, acknowledges that he’s sometimes going too far (doesn’t seem to help very much). Very gloomy mood in the WH
    Oh my…that anyone would listen to something like this. Remember election night two years ago, on ABC during the 7:00 hour an ABC panelist confirmed a source that said Trump was already lashing out over what is happening to him tonight.

    – On election night 2016 Kellyanne Conway was calling FoxNews hosts and slamming the RNC for the loss they thought was coming. Everyone inside the Trump operation, including Trump, expected a loss in 2016. They were as surprised as the rest of us were.

  352. DW says:

    watching Hillsborough carefully. No GOP late afternoon swoon yet. Still picking up votes and closing the overall gap.

  353. Redmen4ever says:

    S&P500 trending up more or less steadily since mid day on Friday.

    Turnout strong in Indiana. I didn’t find a break-out by party.

  354. Robbie says:

    Todd McCain says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:32 pm
    Yes, I remember in 2016 that Josh Kraushaar was saying “sour mood over in Trump Tower”….

    – And until 9PM or so, the mood was sour. Kellyanne Conway was trashing the RNC as late as 7PM on election night 2016. They read the exit polls just like everyone else and expected a loss. Fortunately for them, the exit polls were wrong.

  355. jason says:

    BUT in the late afternoon as people get off work there will be a surge Dem registered voting.”

    I take this with a grain of salt too.

    Not too sure working people are mostly Dem.

  356. Barrett says:

    All good news guys. Even though I’m third party, I need you all the keep the Republican victories coming.

    I voted for 3 Libertarians, 5 Republicans, and 2 write-ins. Voted for 0 democrats.

  357. Todd McCain says:

    Matthew Danner:Only have Election Day data on Broward. If Palm Beach and Miami-Dade turnout is consistent, Dems might be in trouble tonight.

  358. Barrett says:

    To add to that, I would even consider a House with 225 Dems or less to be a loss.

  359. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    326. ““I voted for far left senate candidate De Leon in Kalifornia this morning just to stick it to DIANNE Feinstein. Lots of people are doing that.”

    “-I concur on this. If there is going to be a Dem Senator, might as well make it a male, and an crazy one, so that they can’t keep up the charade of being for women and for moderation”

    The problem with this argument is that Feinstein is so old she will not run for re-election next time. There will be an open seat that at least the Republicans or and Independent have a shot at. DeLeon is much younger so will probably hold the seat for 20+ years as an incumbent. So your exchanging 6 years of a “moderate” for 20+ years of far leftist. I voted for Feinstein.

  360. jason says:

    This GER GOP guy was a big Hillary supporter (or maybe big believer in her winning) if I remember.

    I don’t go to RRH but someone posted their election night thread and I think he was pretty wrong on everything just like Amoral Scumbag (Hillary will win Idaho and GOP will lose 7 seats) here .

  361. Todd McCain says:

    As of 3 p.m. in the counties reporting in real-time ( see previous tweets for list):

    GOP has a 143,655 #ElectionDay ballot lead. Overall turnout is GOP +1.88 with a 125,043 ballot lead.

    And you get some turnout numbers. And you get some turnout numbers. And you…

  362. jason says:

    Rosendale up to 40% at Predictit. McSally at 58%.

    Heller at 40%. Braun at 48%.

  363. jason says:

    Feinstein will win. You read it here first.

  364. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    358. “– On election night 2016 Kellyanne Conway was calling FoxNews hosts and slamming the RNC for the loss they thought was coming. Everyone inside the Trump operation, including Trump, expected a loss in 2016. They were as surprised as the rest of us were.”

    Were you present Robbie hear this? Who is the actually person who reported it — and saying it was an informed source does not cut it. This sounds like the typical unverified reports that are common in the media now.

  365. Paul says:

    I just see some bouncing back and forth on Predictit. I don’t think anyone has any big insights yet.

  366. jason says:

    I do agree that a good result in FL will spill over to other states, we saw it in 2016.

    I have stated here many times that these things do move in waves, I don’t see Dems losing FL and very well in other swing states.

    That being said, I am not yet convinced Scott and DeSantis will win, but I hope you optimistic guys are right.

    The Indy vote will be decisive.

  367. Todd McCain says:

    Peter Schorsch? @PeterSchorschFL

    Follow Follow @PeterSchorschFL

    ? More

    WOW — this number is horrendous for Dems.

    Peter Schorsch Retweeted Peter Schorsch

    We’re now getting numbers from Pam Beach, where Dems have 7.2K #ElectionDay voting lead.

  368. GPO says:

    Robert Costa??Verified account? @costareports · 1h1 hour ago

    My go to GOP source for election night, who is plugged in w/ the leadership, says the candidates to watch early are Andy Barr KY and Comstock VA.

    Adds that internals for most GOP Sen campaigns over weekend were solid, esp for Braun in Ind. But @clairecmc remains tough to beat.

  369. jason says:

    I just see some bouncing back and forth on Predictit.”

    Nah, its definitely much more GOP than it was this morning, although Dems still lead in FL and NV and IN is still tied.

  370. DW says:

    Almost 4 pm, still no GOP afternoon swoon in Hillsborough County.

  371. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Also from a lefty Florida blog vis-a-vis Palm Beach County:

    3:35 pm EST (Kartik Krishnaiyer) I’m hearing a steady stream of voters in eastern Palm Beach County, priority GOP precincts continue into the mid afternoon.

  372. NYCmike says:

    “– And until 9PM or so, the mood was sour. Kellyanne Conway was trashing the RNC as late as 7PM on election night 2016. They read the exit polls just like everyone else and expected a loss. Fortunately for them, the exit polls were wrong.”

    -ABSOLUTE HOGWASH!

    And as for GerGOP, check him out on election night 2016. He was capitulating around the same time Robbie and Lord Arsehat were slobbering over each other.

  373. NYCmike says:

    If I remember correctly, posts from GerGOP were being posted on HHR in the weeks following the Jebots Candidates meltdown, to great amusement.

  374. Todd McCain says:

    Richard Baris? @Peoples_Pundit · 2m2 minutes ago

    ? More

    Baris very bullish on Florida:

    In Florida, at this point, it’s looking like D+5 polls are going to embarrass themselves, again. Doesn’t matter what the indy margin looks like, or their topline. They were wrong. Republican electorate is voting like Democrats in 2012, enough to beat back small indy swing.

  375. NYCmike says:

    “Fortunately for them, the exit polls were wrong.”

    -Fortunately, election night ends at the appointed hours, not when Robbie and Lord Arsehat report the early early exit exit polls.

  376. NYCmike says:

    “Were you present Robbie hear this? Who is the actually person who reported it — and saying it was an informed source does not cut it. This sounds like the typical unverified reports that are common in the media now.”

    -sandiegocitizen, you are a TRUMP CHUMP apologist, worse than jason fraud!

    🙂

  377. Hunter says:

    Baris changed his diaper. Good.

    -Hunter

  378. GeauxLSU says:

    We’re getting bombarded with information from Florida…but seems awfully quiet from MI, IA, NV. Anyone have information on turnout in the midwest?

  379. Waingro says:

    #384. not completely. He’s still down on IN.

    Richard Baris
    ? @Peoples_Pundit
    1h1 hour ago

    It’s only 3. But the D+5 models in Florida aren’t looking so good. Indiana, on the other hand, while showing some improvement, GOP turnout lagged and Dem outperformed. It it held, it would mean Donnelly by about 2%, given the polling consensus on the indy vote holds, as well.

  380. Hunter says:

    Not worried about Indiana. Florida will tell the story, and the GOP has showed up in Florida. Numbers don’t lie. Hard numbers in Florida. Not so much in Indiana.

    -Hunter

  381. Hugh says:

    Anyone claiming knowledge on Indy is guessing. There is no way to know what is going on. It’s nothing like fl where you know who’s voting.

  382. jason says:

    Heh Amoral Scumbag drove by to trash Conway?..he can’t forgive her for turning Trumps campaign around…

  383. NYCmike says:

    “The problem with this argument is that Feinstein is so old she will not run for re-election next time. There will be an open seat that at least the Republicans or and Independent have a shot at. DeLeon is much younger so will probably hold the seat for 20+ years as an incumbent. So your exchanging 6 years of a “moderate” for 20+ years of far leftist. I voted for Feinstein.”

    -I would think that in California, any Republican who would win at this time has to be like a Susan Collins-type, and you would need a real out-there-radical opponent to make the contrast stark enough for a Republican to win.

  384. Greymarch says:

    EXIT POLLS AND ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE are the devil’s data. Dont do it. You are better than that.

  385. phoenixrisen says:

    Florida is foreshadowing a GOP full-on a$$ kicking that is going to be dealt to the Dems tonight. This is what it looks like.

  386. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    375. “Robert Costa??Verified account? @costareports My go to GOP source for election night, who is plugged in w/ the leadership, says the candidates to watch early are Andy Barr KY and Comstock VA.”

    Here is another one for the unverified rumor mill. Was his plugged in source the Coca Coal or Pepsi Cola delivery person. The cleaning lady disagrees.

    At this point, we know very little of how the election will turn out. Its all conjecture.

  387. DW says:

    Duval County Dem lead down to 4803, 55% turnout. No afternoon swoon on the part of the GOP yet.

  388. VictrC says:

    DW

    What did we expect Duval to go down to, with the anticipated swoon.

    What was it last time? What would be a good number for us at th end of the day.

  389. SoHope says:

    This is ELECTION DAY ONLY turnout numbers margins:
    Brevard GOP +15k
    Charlotte GOP +4k
    Duval GOP +6K
    Clay GOP +10K
    Collier GOP +11K
    Hillsbourough GOP +3K
    Lee GOP +12K
    Pinellas GOP +6K
    Pasco GOP +11K
    St John GOP +12K
    Manatee GOP +10K
    Broward DEM +28K

  390. marc says:

    Exactly Hugh, real time numbers, real time votes.

  391. Barrett says:

    to be honest, with this early florida news not looking so great for the dems, I’m having flashbacks to 2016 when Trump won. It was these types of statements about counties like Broward and Duval. Fingers crossed!

  392. DW says:

    Steady as it goes in Hillsborough too…no swoon there either.

  393. marc says:

    Broward is the Dems biggest vote sink. Palm Beach and Miami-Dade will show similar numbers put smaller margins.

  394. SoHope says:

    obviously large dem strongs of Miami, Orange, and Palm Beach are still out there but if they are in line with Broward dem turnout the Dems are slaughtered in the turnout war on election day….Indies would be their only chance.

    Still plenty of other midsized and rural RED county out there not reporting their election day turnout by party.

  395. phoenixrisen says:

    Comment over at RRH:

    REALQUIET
    November 6, 2018 at 3:54 pm
    The Democrats are getting wiped out in Florida. Scott and DeSantis win easily. The GOP are annihilating the Democrats in Election Day voting. Broward and Hillsburrough are underperforming. The GOP is up over 5000 votes in Pinellas county. Over 70% of GOP voters have voted in Lee and Collier counties. Even with a big late afternoon Democratic voter surge, the gap is way too big to overcome. GOP turnout very heavy around the country. Just hard data here guys, no wishcasting.

    One lib in the sub-thread said he was sick to his stomach and would be back at the Indiana poll closing.

  396. DW says:

    Lee County FL now over 61% turnout–strong GOP area

  397. marc says:

    Anyone have turnout info in Ohio,Wisconsin, Iowa?

  398. ReadyFirst says:

    277. Marv. My net 200,000 net GOP prediction was just from the 1.3 million super voters. I think there are another million plus voters out there we’re getting a majority share of that are breaking for us too. Sorry for the poorly written posts. On the move today.

  399. Barrett says:

    Broward 2016: (58% Turnout)

    Trump: 260,951
    Hillary: 553,320

    Thats +292,369 in Broward County for Hillary in 2016.

    And right now Election day turnout is only +28K? That’s less than 10%.

  400. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:46 pm
    358. “– On election night 2016 Kellyanne Conway was calling FoxNews hosts and slamming the RNC for the loss they thought was coming. Everyone inside the Trump operation, including Trump, expected a loss in 2016. They were as surprised as the rest of us were.”
    Were you present Robbie hear this? Who is the actually person who reported it — and saying it was an informed source does not cut it. This sounds like the typical unverified reports that are common in the media now.

    – Steve Hayes of the Weekly Standard for one. But I get it. You, like so many here, are instantly suspicious of any news that doesn’t come for pre-approved news sources. It’s why you like Rasmussen.

  401. lisab says:

    suffolk university polling

    say that the gop will hold the senate, the dems take the house

    but …

    a.) they actually don’t poll the house
    b.) they are run by a dem leaning person

    however, their pollster says it is all over given the 3pm numbers.

  402. Paul says:

    Menendez bumped up a little in Predictit after Trump’s tweet. LOL.

  403. DW says:

    409 and of course the exit polling told us Madame President was a sure thing two years ago.

  404. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:52 pm
    “– And until 9PM or so, the mood was sour. Kellyanne Conway was trashing the RNC as late as 7PM on election night 2016. They read the exit polls just like everyone else and expected a loss. Fortunately for them, the exit polls were wrong.”
    -ABSOLUTE HOGWASH!
    And as for GerGOP, check him out on election night 2016. He was capitulating around the same time Robbie and Lord Arsehat were slobbering over each other

    – You’re so sad I almost feel sorry for you. But you choose daily to put on your Tea Party dunce cap so I have no problems mocking you.

    Not only was Kellyanne Conway ripping on the RNC in private, she was doing so in public on election day 2016. Even Trump was as well.

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kellyanne-conway-trump-campaign-feeling-great-election-night/story?id=43398057

  405. lisab says:

    You, like so many here, are instantly suspicious of any news that doesn’t come for pre-approved news sources.
    ——————————

    or … they just think you are a lying piece of garbage …

    tomato tomahto

  406. Paul says:

    Claire has bumped up 4 cents. I think a lot of it is just bumping back and forth for now.

  407. Doug Cross says:

    My shot:
    Senate, GOP +2 (ND),(MO), 53-47 GOP
    House Dems +22 (218-217, GOP)
    Out on a limb: James close to upset in MI Sen..

    … and for someone who just drops by on Election Day, what is RRH?

  408. SoHope says:

    Broward is now at DEM+30K election day

    GOP 40K
    DEM 70K

    The margins arent even close to as big as they were in the early vote. They made their push in early vote and are running out of steam.

  409. Wes says:

    I just voted. I went all GOP even for Mark Harris though he wasn’t my chosen candidate in the primary and is far more socially conservative than I.

    That said, I have been impressed with his hardworking campaign and have no time to send messages. I have him eking out a victory. He will really need to work hard to shore the seat up though.

    Tink helped with vote canvassing on his campaign and will be voting for him as well.

    Curiously neither MacReady nor Harris has a representative at my precinct. It’s a heavily Dem one, so I’m not surprised Harris only had signs up. Usually the Dems running for Congress have a representative passing out literature though. That probably means nothing but was noteworthy to me.

    I was voter 209. That’s a low number—especially fat below the 2008 Dem turnout in the same precinct. That may bode well for Harris and the other Republicans on the ballot.

  410. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:56 pm
    “Fortunately for them, the exit polls were wrong.”
    -Fortunately, election night ends at the appointed hours, not when Robbie and Lord Arsehat report the early early exit exit polls.

    – If the first wave of exit polls had told you then what you wanted to hear or if they tell you tonight what you want to hear, you will say they are great.

    Your problem is you can’t accept news that isn’t supportive of your view that doesn’t come from your pre-approved new sources.

  411. Robbie says:

    NYCmike says:
    November 6, 2018 at 3:57 pm
    “Were you present Robbie hear this? Who is the actually person who reported it — and saying it was an informed source does not cut it. This sounds like the typical unverified reports that are common in the media now.”
    -sandiegocitizen, you are a TRUMP CHUMP apologist, worse than jason fraud!

    – SDC is someone who believes Rasmussen is a real poll.

    As for Kellyanne Conway, she’s on video on election day 2016 complaining about the RNC.

    I suspect the video won’t change your mind though because that’s how you operate.

  412. Frank says:

    Wes,

    My apologies. To what state are you referring?

    Frank

  413. Wes says:

    I’m from NC, Frank. Mark Harris is the candidate I was referring to. He’s running for NC-9.

  414. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 4:07 pm
    Heh Amoral Scumbag drove by to trash Conway?..he can’t forgive her for turning Trumps campaign around…

    – Poor, Jason fraud. He’s so stupid he didn’t even realize, on top of trashing the RNC to reporters on election night, she was also on TV saying similar things.

    Go back to staring at your faded Rubio poster. Or better yet, go back to telling me why we had to nominate Chris Christie based on a January 2014 poll that showed him doing well against Hillary in PA.

  415. Wes says:

    SDC May think Rasmussen is a real poll, but Robbie thought Hillary and Ross would carry NC.

  416. DW says:

    4:30 – Hillsborough still steady, no GOP drop off

  417. EML says:

    Here’s the super secret decoder ring for Florida voter turnout:

    https://tgv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=BRO

    Just plug in a 3-letter county code at the end (eg CLL for Collier, DUV for Duval, LEE for Lee, etc). I don’t know if this works for other states.

  418. phoenixrisen says:

    Getting close to declaring Florida an Election Day disaster area for the Democrats (no offense meant to the counties that were hit by Hurricane Michael)

  419. NYCmike says:

    Early exit polls are bunk, Robbie.

    Simple as that.

    I prefer keeping a cool head, and patiently waiting for time to go by, and win or lose, I am loved, and my family is safe.

    As for your hysterical ranting back and forth, you need help.

    BIGLY.

  420. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 6, 2018 at 4:35 pm
    SDC May think Rasmussen is a real poll, but Robbie thought Hillary and Ross would carry NC.

    – Wes has become Trump. All Trump does is repeat how he won in 2016. All Wes does is relive the highlight of his life which is apparently getting 2016 in NC right.

  421. Boomtapp says:

    I check this site often but only post on Election Day.

    Just here to say I miss Polaris. That is all. See you guys in 2020!

  422. NYCmike says:

    Kind of like now……early votes by party registration are a data point, but the simple fact we are only assuming who received the vote. I do not take these votes for granted until I see them in the Republican column.

    Try an egg creme for your insanity.

  423. Barrett says:

    Right now, election day results for broward county are the following:

    Dems: 70K (63.6%)
    Reps: 40K (36.4%)

    That’s 3% lower for Dems in Broward compared to 2016

  424. DW says:

    Dem advantage in Duval down to just 4730

  425. Polaris says:

    I miss him too.

  426. Wes says:

    I haven’t yet been wrong on NC in any election prediction, Robbie. I even told you why Trump and Burr would win. Your JEB! fetish forced you to say Hillary and Ross would win here though. I take great pleasure in pointing out your egregiously bad analysis when countering your never ending prophecies of doom.

  427. DW says:

    Lee County now 62% turnout

  428. Marv says:

    #426 phoenixrisen,

    No offense taken. We’ve been hit by hurricanes here in So Fla
    more times than I can remember.

  429. NYCmike says:

    Robbie,

    Make the list of the converts to Trumpism.

    You are like Santa Claus. Check that list twice!

  430. phoenixrisen says:

    DW, looks like a red GOP voter tidal wave came in the morning across the country and has been a steady flow since then.

  431. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “Were you present Robbie hear this? Who is the actually person who reported it — and saying it was an informed source does not cut it. This sounds like the typical unverified reports that are common in the media now.”

    “– Steve Hayes of the Weekly Standard for one.”

    So Robbie are you claiming that Steve Hayes was present at Trump’s headquarters and witnessed it — or was he quoting an “informed sources”? Hayes as you know is bitterly anti-Trump, as is his associate Irving Kristol.

  432. NYCmike says:

    Still believe it is way too early for such confidence – half the Democratic voters are just finishing breakfast.

  433. DW says:

    Still no GOP dropoff in afternoon voting in Hillsborough County as of 4:45 pm

  434. EML says:

    433 – 4530 lead in Duval, DW. Not sure if there’s enough time to get that down to 0. In 2016, 800 more GOP ballots were submitted.

  435. lisab says:

    “But truly I never wanna spend time with white people again (if that’s what non-muslims are called). Not for one moment, for any reason. They are disgusting.” sinead o’connor

  436. EML says:

    I can only post here from my mobile devices. All my laptop posts get rejected. Any way to fix this?

  437. DW says:

    441 – agreed. Much is unknown. I am not going to allow myself to get carried away or even leaning a direction until I see actual votes counted in KY and IN.

  438. Waingro says:

    #434, what’s up, Polaris.

  439. NYCmike says:

    “as is his associate Irving Kristol.”

    -Irving? Or William?

  440. Phil says:

    Ok, I’m confused. Duval County was carried by Trump my a point and Romney by 3.

    Currently Republican registration voting down by just under 5K. Is that supposed to be good? What am I missing?

  441. EML says:

    Testing

  442. NYCmike says:

    “I can only post here from my mobile devices. All my laptop posts get rejected. Any way to fix this?”

    -Smash them with hammers, and then run for President.

  443. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 6, 2018 at 4:44 pm
    I haven’t yet been wrong on NC in any election prediction, Robbie. I even told you why Trump and Burr would win. Your JEB! fetish forced you to say Hillary and Ross would win here though. I take great pleasure in pointing out your egregiously bad analysis when countering your never ending prophecies of doom.

    – Wes, I am genuinely so happy for you. I really am. I am so glad you’ve never been wrong about your North Carolina predictions.

    When I was in line Sunday and number 4 for departure at ORD, I wasn’t thinking about V1, VR, or V2. I was thinking about how happy I am that you can tell everyone about your NC predictions.

  444. Todd McCain says:

    GOP winning Election Day in Washoe by 11 points!

  445. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    November 6, 2018 at 4:47 pm
    So Robbie are you claiming that Steve Hayes was present at Trump’s headquarters and witnessed it — or was he quoting an “informed sources”? Hayes as you know is bitterly anti-Trump, as is his associate Irving Kristol.

    – For the love of God. He said on FoxNews she called HIM. Deal with.

    Some of you get your Trump underoos in a bunch whenever you hear news that doesn’t come from state run media.

  446. DW says:

    The point of Duval County isn’t picking over the difference of a few hundred votes, or even a couple thousand. The point is, IF there was going to be a blue-wave in FL, this would be strongly going the D’s way in a county like Duval. Its not.

  447. Waingro says:

    Peter Schorsch
    Peter Schorsch
    @PeterSchorschFL
    Top Republicans sounding nervous at this point in today, estimating they are up “only” about 100K ballots on Democrats.

    Republicans want to be up about 200K by time polls close.

  448. EML says:

    Currently Republican registration voting down by just under 5K. Is that supposed to be good? What am I missing?
    ===================================
    The gap has been closing steadily throughout the day. When Trump won the county in 2016, there were 180,413 Democratic ballots vs 181,246 Republican ballots submitted. The problem is that Democratic registration advantage has gone from +20K to +27K since 2016, but if we can get the gap down to 0, looking good.

  449. phoenixrisen says:

    #453 — OOF!!! Jon Ralston hardest hit!

  450. Waingro says:

    However…

    Peter Schorsch
    Peter Schorsch
    @PeterSchorschFL
    ·
    1h
    We’re now getting numbers from Pam Beach, where Dems have 7.2K #ElectionDay voting lead.

    If the Democrats only have a 7200 vote lead in Palm Beach County?? (shudder)

  451. phoenixrisen says:

    #456 — Sounds like they are downplaying to keep the sense of urgency there. The hard data out of Florida is off the charts good for the GOP.

  452. Phil says:

    Robbie, I come over here to get political information. Wes provides that every cycle about his home state – accurate information. What exactly do you contribute with your 24/7 rants on Trump? If I were you I wouldn’t be knocking him given your lousy past predictions.

  453. Waingro says:

    Stand by for BS CNN Exit polls….

  454. DW says:

    Duval down to 4458

  455. SoHope says:

    LOL…7.2k lead in Palm beach…Brevard county has that doubled for the GOP

  456. ReadyFirst says:

    426. Phoenix. Muh – hurricanes. But loss of air conditioning, now that stuffs serious.

  457. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag supported the worst train wreck in primary history but is attacking Rubio.?

  458. Robbie says:

    Phil says:
    November 6, 2018 at 4:57 pm
    Robbie, I come over here to get political information. Wes provides that every cycle about his home state – accurate information. What exactly do you contribute with your 24/7 rants on Trump? If I were you I wouldn’t be knocking him given your lousy past predictions.

    – My predictions in 2016 were lousy just like everyone else’s predictions. My predictions in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014 were quite good. You ignore those because you don’t like the fact I don’t like Trump and am not afraid to say so.

  459. lisab says:

    Brazil’s Miss BumBum contest ends in chaos as winner accused of ‘fake butt’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOiO4-H663Y

    i am gonna say, probably nsfw

  460. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:03 pm
    Amoral Scumbag supported the worst train wreck in primary history but is attacking Rubio.?

    – Yes, I am. Because when he had a 1 on 1 chance to take on Trump, he talked about hand size and pants wetting.

  461. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    What defines a real poll? If its accuracy, then Rasmussen is a real poll. If you prefer a different methodology, regardless of results, then your “real” poll may not be an accurate poll.

    I will take the accurate “fake” poll over the inaccurate “real” poll.

  462. SoHope says:

    Florida’s 3rd largest county and one of the largest vote sinks for the Dems with a 7.2K DEM election day margin was was made irrelevent on election day by the 25 largest county (Clay) with 11K GOP Election day margin

  463. Waingro says:

    Trump at 44/55 approval in CNN Exits.

  464. lisab says:

    You ignore those because you don’t like the fact I don’t like Trump and am not afraid to say so.
    ———————————–

    or … they think you are a lying piece of garbage

    potato potahto

  465. Waingro says:

    Jon Ralston
    ? @RalstonReports

    Washoe numbers as of 90 mins ago:
    Total25,477
    Dem8,031
    Rep 10,702
    Other6,744

    Dems, who led by 1,700 ballots after early #s, have lead erased. But you can see dominance of Clark in NV voting: Dems losing by double digits in Washoe and only behind by 2,700 today.

  466. DW says:

    472- CNN at just -11?

  467. Phil says:

    I don’t care whether you like Trump or not. I’m here for election information. if I gave a damn about Trump rants I could just turn on CNN. Same rants you throw out daily.

  468. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:06 pm
    You ignore those because you don’t like the fact I don’t like Trump and am not afraid to say so.
    ———————————–
    or … they think you are a lying piece of garbage
    potato potahto

    – Bless your heart. I was unaware that not agreeing with the pro-Trump sentiment of this forum qualifies as a lying piece of garbage.

    I’m still trying to figure out how that court case you said Trump would win about his transition emails went. Any updates?

  469. Waingro says:

    Peter Schorsch
    ? @PeterSchorschFL

    As of 5 p.m. in the counties reporting in real-time (doesn’t include #’s from Miami-Dade; see previous tweets for list):

    GOP has a 168,973 #ElectionDay ballot lead. Overall turnout is GOP +2.13 with a 150,458 ballot lead.

    #FlaPol

  470. Barry says:

    A lot of people voting in Minot ND even though it’s snowing. One of the big measures on the state ballot is to legalize marijuana.Some expect a greater younger vote turnout. Not sure how it will effect the senate race.

  471. DW says:

    Turnout in Lee county over 63% now.

  472. Robbie says:

    Amazing to have that kind of wrong track number with such a strong economy and no major wars taking place.

    Joe Weisenthal
    @TheStalwart

    Per CNN’s exit poll, 56% of respondents say the country’s on the wrong track. And 55% disapprove of Trump.

  473. jaichind says:

    So if CNN exit poll as DJT approval at -11 that seems sort of positive news as the last CNN poll before the election of LV was -16
    And in 2004 and 2016 exit polls seems only to shift toward the GOP

  474. lisab says:

    I was unaware that not agreeing with the pro-Trump sentiment of this forum qualifies as a lying piece of garbage.
    ———————————

    or … it is you being a lying piece of garbage that makes them think you are a lying piece of garbage

    tobago tobahgo 🙂

  475. jaichind says:

    @ 481 Robbie. In 2012 the RCP election day right track/wrong track average was 40.7/54.1

  476. lisab says:

    governor lepage moving to florida

    voted for the last time in maine today

  477. SoHope says:

    Miami-Dade probably currently has a 30k dem margin…maybe less because it is bigger but not as blue as broward

  478. Robbie says:

    I’ve been saying for about a year this election was going to be a referendum on Trump as president. Later waves of exit data may change this number, but this is evidence a big portion of voters are voting on him.

    Manu Raju
    @mkraju

    Early exit polls: Two-thirds of voters say their vote in today’s election is about Donald Trump; a significant 1-in-6 voters say this is the first midterm election they’re voting in

  479. lisab says:

    PELOSI: We’re Ready to ‘Throw a Punch’…

  480. Wes says:

    Will Robbie ever stop pining over JEB!’s loss in 2016?

  481. SoHope says:

    These exit polls just show who are the people that get polled that showed dems up huge in FL…they just arent polling the right people…you know…voters

  482. Skippy says:

    Exit Polls always improve for GOP candidates as the night goes on. 44% approval rating for Trump with first wave of exit polls is pretty good.

  483. jason says:

    Anybody doubt that if Rubio was president Amoral Scumbag would be here repeating every lie and scurrilous attack the MSN cane up with?

  484. EML says:

    LOL, what kind of a clown cites exit polls?

  485. Robbie says:

    RCP average of Trump approval rating – 43.6%
    Rasmussen approval rating – 50%

    Benchmark Politics
    ?@benchmarkpol

    First exit poll of voters today:

    Approve of Trump: 44%
    Disapprove of Trump: 55%

    (CNN)

  486. hugh says:

    the highest ED vote differential will be broward. Miami dade will be less and maybe a lot less.

  487. Wes says:

    Sarah Palin, EML. She cited the DE exit poll in 2010 to say the DEGOP did the right thing that year by nominating Christine O’Donnell because Castle would also have lost.

    Palin’s a moron.

  488. Robbie says:

    jaichind says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:14 pm
    @ 481 Robbie. In 2012 the RCP election day right track/wrong track average was 40.7/54.1

    – And which economy was better? The one in 2012 when unemployment was 7.8% or the one in 2018 when the unemployment rate is 3.7%?

  489. jason says:

    44 is pretty good…according to Amoral Scumbag 45 holds the house unless goal posts changed.

  490. Barry says:

    Did Jim Acosta conduct CNN’s exit polls?

  491. phoenixrisen says:

    Those CNN exit polls are very, very good for Trump seeing that they are coming from CNN.

  492. lisab says:

    because Castle would also have lost
    ———————-

    i am pretty sure castle would have done well

    much better than the witch

  493. Robbie says:

    Wes says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:16 pm
    Will Robbie ever stop pining over JEB!’s loss in 2016?

    – Will Wes ever stop talking about the highlight of his life which was getting NC correct in 2016?

  494. Waingro says:

    CNN Exit Poll: Most important Issue Facing the Economy:

    Health Care: 41%
    Immigration 23%
    Economy: 23%
    Gun Policy: 11%

  495. Waingro says:

    CNN Exit poll: 68% feel the economy is good.

  496. lisab says:

    Research on Spanking: It’s Bad for ALL Kids
    Hitting children undermines their well-being in the long term.

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/moral-landscapes/201309/research-spanking-it-s-bad-all-kids

  497. Todd McCain says:

    478. Looks like GOP is going to hit 200K which is where they wanted to be.

  498. SoHope says:

    Muh Russia: 99.99%

  499. Wes says:

    Since I’ve never yet gotten NC wrong, Robbie, how is knowing more than you about this state two years ago a highlight?

    Hhhhmmmm…

  500. DW says:

    23% said the economy is the most important issue facing the economy?

  501. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:22 pm
    44 is pretty good…according to Amoral Scumbag 45 holds the house unless goal posts changed.

    – Trump on election day 2018 44/55

    Obama on election day 2010 45/55

  502. Waingro says:

    #509, sorry that should have said “country” not the “economy”.

  503. NYCmike says:

    “LOL, what kind of a clown cites exit polls?”

    -What kind of clown KEEPS citing early exit polls election after election?

    We have Bozo from Pogo Loco right here at HHR!

  504. Sy says:

    503 with those numbers. we can tell their exit is heavily weighted on the Democratic side. 11% Gun policy? lol

  505. mnw says:

    You don’t hear much about Wonkette any more. You used to. She was a leftwing cutie pie who used to be on cable TV a lot, & she had her own “Wonkette” website too, of course.

    In 2004, she posted a bunch of ‘top secret, insider exit polls’ showing Kerry running away with an easy victory.

    “Fly, data, fly!”, she said.

  506. DW says:

    Health Care: 41%

    That’s the tip off right there they exit polled a predominantly Dem sample.

  507. lisab says:

    according to Amoral Scumbag 45 holds the house unless goal posts changed.
    ———————

    guess the goalposts changed

  508. Robbie says:

    Waingro says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:24 pm
    CNN Exit poll: 68% feel the economy is good.

    – Political malpractice the economy wasn’t the centerpiece of the campaign rather than immigration.

  509. Waingro says:

    Is S.E. Cupp still considered a “conservative”? She’s blasting Republican governors for opposing Obamacare and saying the “healthcare” issue is “bad” for them.

  510. NYCmike says:

    lisab,

    Did you vote for Ellison, or his opponent?

    If you voted for Ellison, GFY!

  511. lisab says:

    mnw,

    i apologize for poking the troll …

    i’m bored 🙂

  512. lisab says:

    Did you vote for Ellison, or his opponent?
    ———————————-

    have not voted.

    any advice?

  513. dblaikie says:

    I think it is trashy and pure propaganda for CNN to broadcast exit polls before they close in Kentucky and Indiana!! What a bunch of sleaze’s.

  514. mnw says:

    So this is gonna be all Vichey, all the time. WHY do people care what he thinks? Or feel the need to refute his troll droppings?

  515. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:27 pm
    according to Amoral Scumbag 45 holds the house unless goal posts changed.
    ———————
    guess the goalposts changed

    – Umm, dummy. I explained to Jason fraud about a month ago the uptick in Trump’s approval rating came far too late in the process. Re-election decisions by vulnerable House members were made when Trump was flatlining in the upper 30’s to 40%. Not that I expect Jason fraud to ever get anything about what I saw correct.

  516. sane_voter says:

    Is it still true that all the networks band together for one set of exit polling?

  517. Robbie says:

    lisab says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:29 pm
    mnw,
    i apologize for poking the troll …
    i’m bored

    – I’m still trying to find out how that lawsuit you said was a surefire winner for Trump went.

  518. lisab says:

    i have zero connection to any candidate in mn

    no idea who they even are

    but … if i was still in ny, i would have voted for tom reed, if he is running, he did me a solid a year or so ago

  519. Robbie says:

    mnw says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:31 pm
    So this is gonna be all Vichey, all the time. WHY do people care what he thinks? Or feel the need to refute his troll droppings?

    – I’ll be leaving soon tonight, but you’re right. I don’t know why people feed a troll like you who disappeared for years only to return as a sniveling Trump shill.

  520. Waingro says:

    CNN Exit poll

    Opinion of Republican Party: 43/54

    Opinion of Democrat Party: 50/46

    Opinion of Nancy Pelosi: 31/55

  521. dblaikie says:

    Just like I thought Heller has a 10 point lead in Washoe County! It just shows that the Culinary Workers gave it their best shot in early voting. If this continues Heller will win Washoe by 10000 votes. BOOM!

  522. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag wants the GOP to lose but admits the economy is good…

    A floating turd really has more integrity

  523. John says:

    Early number from Maricopa County…
    158,680 in person
    63,514 R
    43,637 D
    51,529 I

  524. lisab says:

    another expert saying scott/desantis doing well right now in florida

  525. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:36 pm
    Amoral Scumbag wants the GOP to lose but admits the economy is good…
    A floating turd really has more integrity

    – God lord. You are genuinely the stupidest person I have ever come across. For months and months, I have said Trump should campaign on the economy because it’s good. Do you have no memory of anything, or do you just lie professionally?

  526. jason says:

    Nelson tanking at Predictit….

  527. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag too busy at moonbat sites to see Trump DID campaign on the economy.

  528. Todd McCain says:

    What are the big GOP counties that are not reporting real time?

  529. Waingro says:

    Peter Schorsch
    ? @PeterSchorschFL
    2m2 minutes ago

    As of 5:30 p.m. in the counties reporting in real-time (doesn’t include #’s from Miami-Dade; see previous tweets for list):

    GOP has a 165,066 #ElectionDay ballot lead. Overall turnout is GOP +1.98 with a 146,152 ballot lead.

    #FlaPol

  530. lisab says:

    top article on kos

    Voter suppression round-up: Where are things going wrong?

  531. Robbie says:

    Meet the Press
    @MeetThePress

    LATEST: @NBCNews Exit poll: Trump’s job approval rating in Florida is 51% approve, 48% disapprove #MTPDaily

  532. Waingro says:

    Meet the Press
    ?Verified account @MeetThePress
    3m3 minutes ago

    LATEST: @NBCNews Exit poll: Trump’s job approval rating in Florida is 51% approve, 48% disapprove #MTPDaily

  533. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    Amoral Scumbag too busy at moonbat sites to see Trump DID campaign on the economy.

    – You’re so sad. Trump’s closing message was the caravan and immigration. A passing mention about this or that doesn’t qualify as making it the centerpiece.

  534. mnw says:

    John

    Schweikart: “Maricopa County looking good for McSally.”

    It seems to me that where we have quite a bit of data (FL; AZ; NV) a reasonable conclusion is that the GOP is doing pretty well.

    Where we have a lot of reports but NO data (IN), the GOP is in twouble!– as Elmer Fudd would say..

  535. Waingro says:

    Robbie and I have same twitter feed! Too funny.

  536. SoHope says:

    Those are the big FL counties….a good amount of GOP ones are not live updating…I think it more than makes up for Miami dade

  537. Skippy says:

    Everything continues to look good for Republicans in Florida.

  538. jason says:

    It’s 2 to 1 Dems win House on predictit…cnn poll didn’t do much

  539. ReadyFirst says:

    It’s After 5, the precincts are filling up. We’ll hit our 200k.

  540. marc says:

    At 5:15 p.m., it appears GOP is enjoying strong Election Day turnout in Tampa Bay. It now has a 22,151 vote edge over Democrats. @TB_Times.

  541. Waingro says:

    #547, good to hear coming from you, Skippy, as you have been objectively skeptical.

  542. DW says:

    And in the FL counties I am tracking, there has been no GOP late afternoon swoon.

  543. EML says:

    Those are the big FL counties….a good amount of GOP ones are not live updating…I think it more than makes up for Miami dade
    ====================================
    Polk (Trump +14) is a fairly big county that hasn’t reported any election day ballots yet. A lot of the smaller ones like Glades, Jefferson, and Lafayette have posted no election day ballots.

  544. Robbie says:

    A surprise win by Rick Scott would be great, especially because it creates a cushion for 2020. If Republicans end up with 53 Senate seats, it would probably ensure chamber control until 2022 at least.

  545. marc says:

    Hillsborough continues trending left. Democrats have a 22,071 edge there. But Democrats trail in Pinellas (-5,828), Pasco (-25,884) and Hernando (-12,456).

  546. Scooterboy says:

    I’m a little worried about where those Miami Dade numbers come in at. Please tell me I should just chill.

  547. Skippy says:

    Waimgro,

    I anticipate an INDY edge going to Dems in Forida…but the Republican base has come out to such a level that I believe Scott will put out the victory once again.

  548. Waingro says:

    “If Republicans end up with 53 Senate seats, it would probably ensure chamber control until 2022 at least.”

    Agreed. 53 is my bottom for feeling comfortable about holding the Senate in 2020.

  549. mnw says:

    Looks like Hillary may carry MO too!

  550. Skippy says:

    Marc,

    Those Hillsborough’s numbers are fantastic for Republicans if you compare them to 2016 results.

  551. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Good grief. Just logged on the blog and the first post I read is Robbie being an optimist! Something must be happening.

  552. DW says:

    555 – GOP still holding an election day edge of about 2000 votes. Earlier in the afternoon it was closer to 3000, so yes, a bit of a swoon, but not too bad.

  553. mnw says:

    In 5 minutes, I start drinking.

    Sapphire, Wes?

  554. Waingro says:

    Will Dave be doing separate threads for each time a state closes?

  555. jason says:

    Grey Goose dirty Martini for me tks

  556. ReadyFirst says:

    563. mnw. Home now from a long day out. Just had a shot of Don Julio 1942. Time to get ready for some celebration parties!

  557. mnw says:

    Bottled Sangria. 9.5%.

    Why waste time?

  558. Robbie says:

    SanDiegoCitizen says:
    November 6, 2018 at 5:56 pm
    Good grief. Just logged on the blog and the first post I read is Robbie being an optimist! Something must be happening.

    – I’ve never been pessimistic about the Senate. Fortunately, the races in this class are in the right spots. Had this been the 2016 class, it would have been a different story.

    I’ve been pessimistic about the House and governor’s races.

  559. VictrC says:

    1942….yes please.

  560. DW says:

    Polls close in KY and IN. It begins. I posted my dashboard above for reference. I will be dark for a while and come on later tonight.

  561. EML says:

    Duval gap going back up. +4880 for Dems. Not all good news today. Still too much optimism in here.

  562. jason says:

    Lol…looks like Amoral Scumbag is worried about a “surprise” Scott win.

  563. Waingro says:

    #571 (gulp).

  564. Marv says:

    #566 ReadyFirst,

    I plan to down a couple of Sam Adams myself, but only after I see FL trending to Scott/DeSantis.

  565. Robbie says:

    jason says:
    November 6, 2018 at 6:02 pm
    Lol…looks like Amoral Scumbag is worried about a “surprise” Scott win.

    – I would hate to be as stupid as you are.

  566. GPO says:

    Waingro says:

    November 6, 2018 at 5:54 pm

    “If Republicans end up with 53 Senate seats, it would probably ensure chamber control until 2022 at least.”

    Agreed. 53 is my bottom for feeling comfortable about holding the Senate in 2020.

    54-55 would prob get us to 2024 majority in worst case scenario of a 2020 dem presidential win

  567. NYCmike says:

    “A passing mention about this or that doesn’t qualify as making it the centerpiece.”

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/of-course-trump-is-talking-about-the-economy-who-says-hes-not

    “Add the three speeches together, and Trump spent about 5,320 words on the economy versus about 4,730 words on illegal immigration. One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?”

  568. ReadyFirst says:

    Marv, agreed, not done yet, but I just left several GOP Precincts that are filling up again as people get off work. I bet the same is going on all over the state. Yes, in blue areas too, but today is a GOP day and I think our numbers go up. Also, as I pointed out last night, black turnout in this election has been just under 13%. 13% in a race with Gillum, slightly less than their % of the electorate. The magic just isn’t there for them.

  569. Todd McCain says:

    Henry Olsen? @henryolsenEPPC

    Follow Follow @henryolsenEPPC

    ? More

    Next two IN counties in – early returns have Brain running 5-10% ahead of Mourdock in 2012. More very good GOP news.

  570. Godfather says:

    New thread

  571. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    567. “Bottled Sangria. 9.5%.”

    Oh would I love some Brazilian sangria tonight. But have to go to a non-political meeting at which almost all the attendees are liberal democrats. If the results come in as they initially look, its going to be like a dirge. I will be serious and straight-faced, but a lot of them are going to know that privately I am smirking.

  572. Cash Cow TM says:

    Walt is back from bridge, so I can no longer nap and have to do something constructive.

    Walt (again) brought home no money winnings from bridge.
    ***********************************
    So…

    I wilL FURTHER PREDICT that:

    1. THERE WILL BE SOME ELECTION SURPRISES.

    2. MANY OF THE POLLS ILL BE WRONG AND THE POLLSTERS WILL HAVE EGG ON THEIR FACES.

    3. SOME OF THE POLLS WILL BE RIGHT
    ***************************************
    4. IF THE Ds FAIL TO GAIN A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE
    then the LOONS WILL GO APE$H!T AS WILL MANY TV NEWS COMMENTATORS.

    5. IF THE Ds DO WIN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE, BUT ARE DEFEATED AND LOSE SEATS IN THE SENATE, THEY WILL SAY THAT THEY WILL GET THE SENTE IN 2 YEARS AND REMAIN BAT$h!+ CRAY CRAY FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS.

    6. IF THE Rs HOLD THE HOUSE AND MAKE GAINS IN THE SENATE, THE LOONY LEFT WILL BE A SPECTACLE TO BEHOLD.

  573. Paul says:

    Looks like Kentucky 6th district is gonna flip to blue. Or at least be very close. This was polled as a toss-up.

  574. Paul says:

    Say farewell to Comstock