“Add the three speeches together, and Trump spent about 5,320 words on the economy versus about 4,730 words on illegal immigration. One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?”

NYCmike says:
November 6, 2018 at 6:06 pm
“A passing mention about this or that doesn’t qualify as making it the centerpiece.” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/of-course-trump-is-talking-about-the-economy-who-says-hes-not
“Add the three speeches together, and Trump spent about 5,320 words on the economy versus about 4,730 words on illegal immigration. One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?”

– Bless your heart. If you think Trump’s focus the last ten days was both the economy and immigration, then I can’t help you.

“One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?””

574. Previous thread.
Marv, agreed, not done yet, but I just left several GOP Precincts that are filling up again as people get off work. I bet the same is going on all over the state. Yes, in blue areas too, but today is a GOP day and I think our numbers go up. Also, as I pointed out last night, black turnout in this election has been just under 13%. 13% in a race with Gillum, slightly less than their % of the electorate. The magic just isn’t there for them.

Oh would I love some Brazilian sangria tonight. But have to go to a non-political meeting at which almost all the attendees are liberal democrats. If the results come in as they initially look, its going to be like a dirge. I will be serious and straight-faced, but a lot of them are going to know that privately I am smirking.

watch MD-04 – I worked very hard with a few friends to prop up the Libertarian and the Republican in the hopes of getting Anthony Brown below 50%. We doubt it’s possible because of PG County but we had fun campaigning

favor to ask…. when you announce calls for house districts, please include R or D and whether those are targeted districts ie blue wave or red wall results.

Politico & Fox – can’t zoom in on counties
CNN – way behind everybody else
NYT – annoying. Switches from House to Senate view for no reason and keeps popping up the paywall thing.

Mike Braun is surging in the rural counties by around 10-15 points more than the Republican did in 2012. He’s also improved slightly off the non-rural counties as well. Good results so far for Braun.

Walt is back from bridge, so I can no longer nap and have to do something constructive.

Walt (again) brought home no money winnings from bridge. So he is out of sorts…
***********************************
So…

I wilL FURTHER PREDICT that:

1. THERE WILL BE SOME ELECTION SURPRISES.

2. MANY OF THE POLLS ILL BE WRONG AND THE POLLSTERS WILL HAVE EGG ON THEIR FACES.

3. SOME OF THE POLLS WILL BE RIGHT
***************************************
4. IF THE Ds FAIL TO GAIN A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE
then the LOONS WILL GO APE$H!T AS WILL MANY TV NEWS COMMENTATORS.

5. IF THE Ds DO WIN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE, BUT ARE DEFEATED AND LOSE SEATS IN THE SENATE, THEY WILL SAY THAT THEY WILL GET THE SENTE IN 2 YEARS AND REMAIN BAT$h!+ CRAY CRAY FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS.

6. IF THE Rs HOLD THE HOUSE AND MAKE GAINS IN THE SENATE, THE LOONY LEFT WILL BE A SPECTACLE TO BEHOLD.

I will not post my predictions until tomorrow morning. I don’t want to jinx any races tonight. I find that when I post my predictions the next day, they are almost always 100% accurate.

There are only four or five troublemaking counties in Indiana: Monroe (voting until 7, thanks to judge); Marion (Indy); St. Joseph (South Bend); and Lake.

Then there is Vigo (TH), LaPorte, Porter, Vanderburgh (Evansville).

Donnelly will try to make up margins in Lake (Gary) and Marion.

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
————————————————————————————————-
C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
————————————————————————————————-
CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.3
AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.6
NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4
NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1
NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2
IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8
VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8
WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4
FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3
GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2
OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1
VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1
UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3
——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4
ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5
CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6
IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6
NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7
NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7
FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.3
NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6
MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2
NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2
NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1
PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5
MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4
PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4
CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

Gary, Indiana wont vote as heavy as they did in 2012 when Obama was on the ticket…If Vigo holds up plus what Ive already seen Id pretty much call this one.

Barr has to weather Knoxville/Fayette County. They are currently 60% reported and he’s down by 20 there. The rest of the district is lagging. Should make up some votes, but would be good to drop that margin down to 15-16 in Knoxville.

In FL places like St. John’s and Brevard seems to indicate that Scott is not going to make it unless other Rural and Panhandle comes in even heavier for GOP than Trump 2016 AND Scott outperforms Trump in SE FL. Unlikely.

FL Martin County. Is is pretty much done. Trump won 61-35. Scott wins 60.4-39.6. It seems Scott will very likely get Trump’s vote share of 48%-49% overall but there are no significant third party candidates and Nelson will win almost all the rest.

Gary IN 99% in only nets 16000 for Donnelly? That;s gotta be a mistake on my map right? That would be abysmal turnout.
===============================
That’s just early vote.

I am not holding that much hope for FL. It seems outside of SE FL Scott is matching Trump’s vote share but that is not enough in a 2 way race. It has to be Scott over-performance in both SE FL and Panhandle relative to Trump. Still seems less likely than not.

538 is updating house and senate probabilities in real time. Currently 97.4% for R’s to hold the senate and 32.4% to hold the house, which is trending up for the R’s. Hope the trend continues.

Jason, if dems pick up 28 seats, that’s weak with all of their rhetoric and identity politics. Would they win the house? Yes. Would it really be a win for them? Probably not.

Good Lord! CNN is falling for the Broward schtick of 2016 again! Saying that it’s ONLY 51% reported (but ignoring that a half million votes have been counted already).

I’m at a party for the Kentucky Duke basketball game, but just saw this tweet.

WOW!

Marc Caputo
@MarcACaputo

There were probably 8 million votes cast in Florida’s 2018 election. With 7 million votes in,
DeSantis leads Gillum by 28,754
And
Scott leads Nelson by 11,334

Jason, if dems pick up 28 seats, that’s weak with all of their rhetoric and identity politics. Would they win the house? Yes. Would it really be a win for them? Probably not.”

A win is a win

But obviously if they only have a 10 seat majority they won’t be very effective.

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
————————————————————————————————-
C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
————————————————————————————————-
CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | GOP HOLDS
AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4
NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1
NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2
IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8
VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4
FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3
GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2
OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1
VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1
UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3
——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4
ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5
CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6
IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6
NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7
NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7
FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | DEM FLIP
NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6
MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | DEM FLIP
MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2
NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2
NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1
PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5
MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D |DEM HOLDS
PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4
CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard
————————————————————————————————-
C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.
————————————————————————————————-
CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3
FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | GOP HOLDS
AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1
SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8
WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8
MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6
AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4
GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4
NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4
MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2
WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2
OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1
NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2
IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8
VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS
WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7
PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5
NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4
FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3
GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2
OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1
VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7
TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4
CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4
FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss |vGOP HOLDS
PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3
TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2
CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1
UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1
NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1
CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2
IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3
——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-
IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3
CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4
NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4
ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5
CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5
MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6
IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6
NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7
NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7
FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | DEM FLIP
NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6
MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | DEM FLIP
MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8
KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2
CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1
NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2
NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2
AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2
NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6
AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8
CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1
PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5
MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5
FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D |DEM HOLDS
PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4
NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4
CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

The numbers in FL does not make sense. How can Scott be trailing Trump’s lead margins almost everywhere but still ahead by 1%. I think this will shift against us once more SE FL comes in.

340- Scott actually has more raw votes than DeSantis; my guess is that the Senate ballot (top of the ticket in FL) is just a straight D/R contest whereas the Governor’s race has some undervotes and third party options.

“”But we Romans are rich. We’ve got a lot of gods. We’ve got a god for everything. The only thing we don’t have a god for is premature ejaculation… but I hear that’s coming quickly.”

Chad Pergram
?Verified account @ChadPergram
45s45 seconds ago

Fox projects that Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will defeat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to replace retiring GOP Senator Bob Corker.

Chad Pergram
?Verified account @ChadPergram
45s45 seconds ago

Fox projects that Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will defeat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to replace retiring GOP Senator Bob Corker.

I’m calling Florida Governor for DeSantis. The latest Broward dump means there should be less than 100,000 votes total left and DeSantis’ lead should withstand that surge. It, too, will be very close, 50,000 votes either way.

Looking at NY Times site is does not look like SE FL is done. I do not think Scott’s firewall is enough to stop the Dem surge to come. Perhaps DeSantis can.

I’m calling VA-7 for Spanberger. Very little of the vote out, all of it in Spanberger territory. Unless the ten precincts out in Chesterfield are much more GOP than the whole county, Brat is gone.

@ Skippy 426. We think alike !! I was just about to put in a comment about Young TUrks Meltdown video part II. Especially if we hold the House which to be fair I still think less than 50/50.

With 100% in, James has won Kent County by a hair. Republicans usually need to win that by more to win statewide, but Trump only won it by 3 in 2016 and still won. #MISen

Looks like the Rs will lose:
–In State Senate, Rs will lose 2 to 3 seats (net)
–In House of Delegates looks like 8 incumbent Rs go down and 2 incumbent Ds for a net of +6 for Ds.
***************************************
Both legislative bodies stay in R control.

So in OK Politico is telling me the OKC seat that was +20R in 2016 is now +1D in 2018? If that was the case, it WOULD be a blue wave, but I’m thinking that the polling “formula” has got to start changing especially if the GOP holds the House

Well, they would probably say they will, then in a couple of weeks proclaim the USA +37D and give Trump a .005% of winning reelection……

TX: For Gov, Abbott leads by only 8 in the raw vote. Based on the polls, he should win by 18. So, it is reasonable to suppose (hope!) he has a really big lead in the uncounted vote. If that is true, a similar thing is probably true for Cruz. On the other hand, the polls could be wrong, or there could be a last minute surge in Texas favoring the Democrats. Let’s see how this turns out.

Is Fox trying to depress the left coast vote?? Why the hell would they make that call so erly?? On the bright side the DeSantis win is HUGE. Trump dodged a major bullet there… Florida will be a must win state for him in 2020.

Fox can no longer be considered pro R. I have noticed this for months now. Guess they are protecting themselves for inevitable Dem advantages. I also feel at heart they are anti-Trumpers.

I’m calling Florida Senate for Rick Scott. Not enough votes left in Broward, Miami and Palm Beach to gain 76,000 votes. That’s the second GOP Senate gain and eliminated the possibility of Democratic Senate control.

Nate Cohn
?Verified account @Nate_Cohn
12s13 seconds ago

Tex Cruz is on track for a comfortable victory in Texas, according to our estimates, even though Beto leads in the reported vote.
This is not a projection. But Beto win outside of MOE

Yeah, the numbers look better for Scott. Not sure how he is this close to winning. I guess turnout in GOP counties are just higher than Dem counties so even if Scott’s margins are behind Trump’s margins on each county basis he will wins due to the larger size of the GOP counties votes. Also I think Palm Beach margin for Scott is better than Trump.

I think the Dem House majority is very thing and frankly not worth even having. Also in a now more possible Trump re-election in 2020 I suspect the House might flip back.

Benjy Sarlin
?Verified account @BenjySarlin
3m3 minutes ago

Rep. Dan Donovan is trailing in NY-11 against Max Rose (D) with 86% in. That would be the first legit surprise House win of the night.
4 replies 26 retweets 113 likes

They can say whatever they want at Fox News. That was highly irresponsible and influence-peddling. Millions of voters out West still casting their ballots and Fox News tells them it’s a lost cause? No, folks. Even if they are right, it’s not the point. U.S. Senate is crashing.

— Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) November 7, 2018

I’ll be honest, the House would be nice to hold, but the Senate, with it’s “advise and consent” power, is far more crucial and powerful, as the FF intended. Especially with at least 1 more SCOTUS seat to come prior to 2020.

Well, in theory all the Dem CA pickups could disappear if somehow the GOP had a great election day vote. Unlikely though. I guess that is where the 538 model is basing this 80% business on

It’s criminal how close OH-SEN has turned out (52-48; wasn’t this supposed to be a blowout?). DeWine has more votes than Brown, people gave up on Renacci too soon.

it’s only 8% of the precincts, but Hawley is ahead and all of McCaskill’s urban counties have released early results while most of the rural counties have not. I’ll wait, of course, but it’s really hard for me to see how Hawley doesn’t win.
0 replies 8 retweets 10 likes

If Scott holds Fl;orida and we gain four senate seats along with governorships in FLA , OHIO, and WI, well I would have signed up for that in a heartbeat a month ago

It seems Florida may have clouded the early look at the night. Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.

#577 What data are you looking at? Looks to be a draw House and Senate. Huge wins in FL!!!! I know they haven’t been officially called yet, but it looks like you can bank them.

@Robbie. I would argue Gov are a bit better than expected. OH FL WI were all at risk in addition to IA NV KS. It seems we saved OH and FL. WI most likely is a hold too. IA KS and perhaps NV might be loss. But I would take that.

gameboy says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:20 pm
#577 What data are you looking at? Looks to be a draw House and Senate. Huge wins in FL!!!! I know they haven’t been officially called yet, but it looks like you can bank them.

– NBC shows Democrats at a 228 House projection. That would be a 33 seat gain if they started the night at 195.

AZ will turn around once Mohave starts reporting. Still looking at Maricopa seems to indicate that this will be neck-to-neck. This is not a good sign for NV.

NRCC is going to need to be much more on their game. They allowed too many retirements based on old conventional wisdom and that further hobbled them. I’m still waiting for the “surprise” that breaks for the GOP that they weren’t expecting.

My peeps in FL did their jobs! Told you we’d hold! Just as did my steadfast fellow Floridians Mr. Vito, Marv, Hugh, FL Guy. Sorry for those I left off.

We face Hurricanes all the time, no f’ng blue wave is gonna scare us!!!

What is your purpose? It appears to me that you are able to find any little bit of what could be bad news and then present it as the end of the world. This is all you have done for days.

I dont get it. It is one thing to post bad news for the GOP that is REAL but you post molehills and make them into mountains while ignoring every hill you climb in between.

607 – jaichind, no worries. My crazy Senate prediction is now up in flames. It happens. I think indies did tilt Dem. The GOP showed up just awesome. Turnout was great but Dems showed up as well.

@ Albert Hodges 606. Not sure that is fair. Sure some of my thoughts might have been too pessimistic but on the flip side some of them were correct. I was convinced that the Dems will take the House based on some early results and that ended being correct. I was totally wrong about FL on the other hand.

Robbie says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:05 pm
Down goes Kobach.

Robbie says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:11 pm
NBC projection has Democrats at 228 (+-12) in the House. That’s a 33 seat pick I believe.

Robbie says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:17 pm
It seems Florida may have clouded the early look at the night. Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.

Robbie says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:21 pm
Suburban Republicans getting kicked in the teeth. Sessions goes down in Texas.
=========================
This is Robbie the “Republican”. This is why no one can stand you and why everyone knows that you are just a Dem troll. Can’t say anything good. Probably a +4 pick up in the Senate, with a great unexpected win in FL. Probably holding on to “lost” governorships in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But just comes here to post negativity.

EML says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm
This is Robbie the “Republican”. This is why no one can stand you and why everyone knows that you are just a Dem troll. Can’t say anything good. Probably a +4 pick up in the Senate, with a great unexpected win in FL. Probably holding on to “lost” governorships in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But just comes here to post negativity.

– Ahh, poor baby. Go f$ck yourself.

If you can’t handle bad news, that’s your problem. Not mine.

And by the way, when I wrote thank goodness for the Senate firewall, that was a positive because it’s keeping a bad night from being an awful night.

I still think Walker will take this. He is losing a lot of ground relative to 2014 in Dane and Milwaukee. But they are mostly in. Rest of the state he seems to be keeping his 2014 margins and should get him to victory.

EML says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:36 pm
More..
Robbie says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm
A 40 seat loss in the House is not out of the question. A slaughter.

– You know, crybaby. Someone here started suggesting in October 2017 a 40 seat House loss was possible based on Trump’s approval rating, retirements, and Independents moving towards Democrats.

I’m sorry you’re having a hard time accepting the bad news. Maybe not pay attention to Rasmussen or other farcical sources next time.

If you can’t handle bad news, that’s your problem. Not mine.
================================
Not that I can’t handle bad news, it’s that a jacka$$ who proclaims to be a Republicans can do nothing but post bad news. You could choose to post the good news every once in a while, but since you are a Democrat, you post way more bad news than good.

I would expect a true Republican to take some joy in knocking out a strong incumbent in purple Florida against a lot of odds, but you seem to only revel in Republican defeats, so I can only assume that you are a Democrat.

EML says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm
I would expect a true Republican to take some joy in knocking out a strong incumbent in purple Florida against a lot of odds, but you seem to only revel in Republican defeats, so I can only assume that you are a Democrat.

– I do take joy in adding to the Senate and I predicted a gain.

But the slaughter in the House is terrible. Trump turned suburbia away from Republicans. That’s something Democrats could never do.

I never had that much hope of holding the House but hoped to keep it close so we can flip it back. That stills seems possible but will need us to retake the lead on several 50-50 seats.

NYCmike says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm
EML,
You have luckily NOT been around that much, so you are only getting a small dose of Robbie’s pessimism.
He is disgusting.
I did not want to lose the House, but with the Senate seats and some Governorships in line, not a terrible night all around.

– Wrong. What was disgusting was your willful ignorance of how bad things were going for Republicans in the House. You ignored reality because you didn’t want to hear bad news.

The signs were always there for the House. You chose to look away. I didn’t. I didn’t look away from the Senate when I predicted gains either.

As long as you cloister yourself in rightwing media, you’re going to continue to miss the boat.

If McSally and Heller come thru, it might be time, unless he wants to stay there for at least 7 more years, just in case the White House is lost in 2020.

In 2010, Rs picked up 6 Senate seats (but not enough to gain a majority), while gaining the House. This year, the Ds are losing Senate seats, while gaining the House.

2010 was a big year for our side, but the Ds kept the Senate (albeit by a smaller majority), and President Obama was still able to get his nominations approved.

This year is shaping up as a split decision. The Ds have some positive results (most especially in gaining a majority in the House, but also in gains at the state level), but the Rs have some positive results as well (most especially adding to their majority in the Senate).

If nothing else, Trump will be able to govern during his third and fourth year the way Obama did.

Now, let’s call Missouri and let’s see what happens in Arizona and Nevada, and all the House seats still in play. The size of a majority matters.

Missouri is going to be close. If you compare to 2012 she still has about a 250K net margin out there, but…there are still some ruby red counties to report.

jason says:
November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm
Amoral Scumbag has the moral compass of a floating turd.
Remember that when you right any MSM garbage he writes here.
He is upset there was no blue wave poor bastard.

– No wave? have you been paying attention to the House, dummy? It’s a slaughter.

Walker is slowly climbing his way up. I have no idea about what counties remain that might give him a boost. But, the man has defied the odds in the past, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Hawley seems to be on his way to a Senate seat, as is DeWine who is looking at the governorship of OH. James has done well in MI, and is only down by 7. I still think he’s an awesome candidate — win or lose.

I’ve found tonight’s running commentary very helpful — all except for Robbie, who seems to put a cloud over the blog.

Our @meganmesserly and @RileySnyder just extracted data from Nye showing 22,000 Rs and 10,000 Ds turned out. That’s a good result for GOP. Keep an eye on those numbers from Lyon, Elko and Douglas, too.
4 replies 8 retweets 21 likes

50% Manchin
46% Morrisey
04% the other guy who ran (Libertarian)
*****************************************
THANKS, LIBERARIANS!
It turned out just splendidly for ya!
__________________________________________
(To ber fair, many of the people who voted for the Libertarian ere left wing Ds who hated Manchin on his yes vote on Kavanaugh.)

Not so sure it will be close. I can’t access NYT (paywall), but looking at the counties that are still out (per FOX & CNN), those counties will be brutal for Sky Queen.

(The small county near Jeff City where I vote went 74-26 for Hawley, btw.)

“– No wave? have you been paying attention to the House, dummy? It’s a slaughter.”

One-sided.

How does this work: have you been paying attention to the Senate, dummy? It’s a slaughter.

2010 was a wave. This is a mixed decision. Congratulations on taking the House (and your gains at the state level). This stuff is for real. But, if you won’t recognize that our side is doing well in the Senate, then it doesn’t matter what you say. You’re just revealing something about yourself.

I’ve seen enough in MO. Hawley is ahead by 137,000 and there still lots of rural counties to report. Still lots of votes out in St. Louis County and a few in the city, but not enough to overcome this lead. I call it for Hawley – that’s +4 for the GOP tonight.

Watching the last 3 PA races, all looking good for Rs.

Fitzpatrick holding on in PA 01, Perry in my district PA 10, and Kelly in PA 16. Perry and Kelly are locks, over 90% in, and Fitzpatrick has a 9k lead with 80% in.

Bitter, Kim did not make it but she got 100k votes.

Big lines still in CA, despite the polls having officially closed. Some say the long lines might extend voting for hours — Orange County, is one area being named in this unusual voter spike.

We have some controversial propositions on the ballot which may be causing more interest than normal — prop 10, a state-wide rent control bill (ugh), and prop 6, calling for the repeal of our gas tax. Then there is Gavin Newsom, ready to take the reins of governor, which will prepare him to run for president. What a con man he is!

Huge wins in Ohio & Florida for Gov….will have major implications for Trumps efforts in 2020. Explains why he spent time in those two states the last couple of days. Probably dragged DeSantis to victory.

1) Mrs. Clinton is still not president;
2)Corker, Flakey and McStain all out of the Senate; and
3) we beat those faux-moderates McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly and Nelson!

If we hold Walker, now that we saved Ohio and Florida, I am going to bed happy.

And oh by the way, the Republican is still up by 6.8% in the Connecticut governors race. Connecticut is ALL suburbia but somehow suburbanites won’t vote Republican, per Wobbles.

So far I’m happy with tonight’s wins in the Senate and governorships (especially FL). I always felt the House would be a heavy lift, although, thought there would be fewer loses than there have been so far. Maybe CA will have more favorable results.

Bitterlaw says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:11 pm
NYC – Robbie is being blasted for pointing out that if the GOP loses 40 House seats that would a terrible result. Well, it would be a terrible result.
I do agree that Robbie only posts bad news.

– In the Trump era, it’s been mostly bad news.

Get rid of Trump and the good news will pour forth.

Wallace on Fox: “Giving too much credit to Trump for holding the Senate.”

Listening to Fox News is like reading Pravda back in the USSR.

First, this is an admission that Trump gets SOME credit for “holding the Senate.” He’s only qualifying how much credit Trump should get (as though there is a way to calibrate such a thing).

Second, it is a denial that the Republicans are gaining seats in the Senate, and reveals the man’s prejudice. “I don’t want any reports we’re holding our ground.” Gen. Patton

Third, let’s compare Obama and Trump in their first midterm: both lost the House, and Obama lost 6 Senate seats while the Republicans look to gain 3 or maybe 4 Senate seats. There are problems in saying this, as there were different starting points and so forth. But, in this life, you can only play the hand you’re dealt.

And oh by the way, the Republican is still up by 6.8% in the Connecticut governors race. Connecticut is ALL suburbia but somehow suburbanites won’t vote Republican, per Wobbles.

Northeast voters will vote Republicans for Governor but rarely senator. Don’t feel like looking it up, but I think NH, Vermont,Mass and if Conn holds will all have R govs

Republicans lost a House seat in Oklahoma. Think about that.
==============================
Republicans also lost a House seat in Oklahoma in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2010, thanks to a Bush.

NYCmike says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:19 pm
Bitterlaw,
As intended, the House is where the citizens get to show their emotional side.
The Senate, where judges are confirmed, allow the states to show the wisdom of a longer-term outlook.
For Robbie, and his 40-seat hope, GREAT for him, short-term pain for the country.
It will balance out, as I expect the Dems to overreach.

– You get dumber by the day. When I said a 40 seat loss was possible a year ago. You said I was crazy. Now that it might, happen you think I was rooting for it. get lost.

You’re always wrong because you refuse to accept reality and, in this forum, you’re not alone.

How many here were predicting Republicans would keep the House? Plenty. You were wrong because you didn’t want to accept reality.

Well fellow posters I have come on to say I have egg on half my face. It grieves me to admit it but Robbie was closer than me concerning the House. Robbie I will take it like a man. However, I think I will end pretty close with the Senate. I predicted 6. It could well be five.

EML says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:21 pm
Republicans lost a House seat in Oklahoma. Think about that.
==============================
Republicans also lost a House seat in Oklahoma in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2010, thanks to a Bush.

– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.

– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.
==============================
Well, that wasn’t me. I posted earlier today that there was a lot of unfounded optimism here. The difference is, I post the good with the bad. You only ever, constantly, insistently, post the bad. Which is why you are a Dem troll.

You have me with a gun to my head. You are the saddest little girl I’ve ever seen. You’re the epitome of a snowflake, worry-wart Republican. Grow up, dry your eyes and grow a pair. I had to live with the losers that the GOP lined up over the last 20 years, you can live with Trump for 6 more years. You disgust me.

Not a disaster, it’s a midterm where he in power party made good gains in the senate. A lot harder to flip the senate than the house. We will be back in two years.

EML says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:26 pm
– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.
==============================
Well, that wasn’t me. I posted earlier today that there was a lot of unfounded optimism here. The difference is, I post the good with the bad. You only ever, constantly, insistently, post the bad. Which is why you are a Dem troll.

– Give it rest, you phony. I’ve been here since 2004. I hate this is happening to the House and it wouldn’t have happened with any other Republican, but we’ve got a moron in the White House who is doing serious damage to party with key demographics.

I saw this coming. That doesn’t mean I was rooting for it. It means I didn’t let the red glasses color my view.

per Robbie: Ds won a House seat in Oklahoma. Therefore Ds won this midterm.

Usually we look at the totality of results. But, not Robbie. He waits until after the election, and picks a marker that enables him to continue to live in a reality of his choosing.

How about Rs kept their strangehold (4 out of 6) on New England Governors?

That should scare Ds as much as a Democrat winning a House seat in Oklahoma scares Rs.

NYC – While I do not believe in depression, I am not happy about the results in the House. However, it looks like Robbie was right. Don’t have to like it but have to acknowledge it.

Redmen4ever says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:34 pm
per Robbie: Ds won a House seat in Oklahoma. Therefore Ds won this midterm.
Usually we look at the totality of results. But, not Robbie. He waits until after the election, and picks a marker that enables him to continue to live in a reality of his choosing.

– Wrong, dummy. I said this is a wave in the House. I didn’t say Democrats have won the overall election. Try harder.

And let’s see what the final totals are in the House, the Senate, the governor’s mansions, and the state legislatures before we decide who won because it may be the Senate is the only bright spot in totality.

I hate this is happening to the House and it wouldn’t have happened with any other Republican
================================
Oh, except when Democrats had 263 in the House and a supermajority in the Senate because of Bush. But you had nothing to say about that and didn’t realize the disaster of supporting JEB in the primary.

rd Baris
@Peoples_Pundit
7m
Florida Republicans. Take a bow. That was a beautiful display of a base defending their president & party vs. history, media, polls, etc. Truly remarkable & I’m fully impressed. Media will ignore you and talk about Donald Trump. But we saw it over here. We saw what you did today.
View details ·

Truly a wasted opportunity to take out Sherrod Brown in Ohio by the GOP. If they had fielded a candidate like John James in Michigan, they would have flipped that seat. John James, go move to Ohio LOL!!!

Walker behind by 4,000…
********************************
Walker losing the 3 NW upper tier counties (Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland) by total of @ 7,000…

Truly a wasted opportunity to take out Sherrod Brown in Ohio by the GOP. If they had fielded a candidate like John James in Michigan, they would have flipped that seat. John James, go move to Ohio LOL!!!
==========================
I don’t understand how you vote for Sherrod Brown AND Mike Dewine.

jason says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:42 pm
Amoral Scumbag was wrong with most of his predictions… again.
These results are not going to get rid of Trump.
If anything, he is now in a stronger position for 2020.
There isn’t going to be any Nikki Haley

– Oh really?

I had a 30-40 seat loss in the House. That looks on target.

I had Democrats gaining 8-11 governor’s mansions. That seems a good bet.

I had Republicans gaining 0-2 Senate seats. I expected to lose AZ and NV. We’ll see how that turns out.

I had Republicans losing 250 state legislative seats. We’ll know that number in the days to come.

Unlike you, I did darn well. At least I didn’t say it was 1970 like someone else.

“One thing I knew for sure tonight is no matter how badly the races went, the Trumpsters would refuse to say any part of the election was bad.”

-Bitterlaw,

This right here shows you why Robbie is a troll. EVERYONE here knows that the loss of the House is not a GOOD thing.

BUT, as I have written already, the House is voted on every 2 years FOR A REASON. It is the chamber where the people will express their emotions, which are fleeting. Call me in 2 years time and let’s run this 435 race contest again.

“– Wrong, dummy. I said this is a wave in the House. I didn’t say Democrats have won the overall election. Try harder.”

If you are as smart as you think you are, not a dummy as you call everybody else, you would be able to get Wikipedia to change the definition of “wave election.” While saying there is no precise definition, they define past wave elections as:

“one party gained twenty or more seats in the House, picked up at least one seat in the Senate, and did not lose a Presidential election.”

Phil says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:44 pm
The House was bad.
Happy, Robbie?
About what I thought – I had it at 33 seats.

– Of course not. But I took a lot of slings and arrows for a year for suggesting this was possible in the House. Just because I thought it was possible didn’t mean I was rooting for it.

ReadyFirst says:
November 6, 2018 at 11:49 pm
792. Wes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. He’s like listening to my neighbors chihuahua.

– Oh, I see. I was right just by accident. But when you and the rest here are wrong, it’s just a well meaning mistake. Got it. I guess when I was right in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, it was just by accident as well.

You all refused to see what the data in the House showed. Trump was a lead weight in the suburbs.

NYC – Why are you lecturing me on the House? I know it is up every 2 years. I think Trump helped in the Senate and hurt in the House. Both can be true.

I had a bad moment yesterday. I talked to a really close friend who is a former GOP County Chairwoman in western MO. To my shock, she told me she thought McCaskill would win. She’s 77, & I don’t know how plugged in she is politically any more.

Of course, Wes. Completely irrelevant to my decision. Ocean City is the closest and nicest beach from my house. If you interpret this as some form of endorsing mo,eating children, please come to my house and say it to my face. You know where I live from FB.

NV & AZ could either make this a pretty good night… or a mediocre one.

I’m kind of upbeat because the “courageous bipartisan statesmen who put country above party” (McCain; Murkowski; Flake) don’t have the capacity to singlehandedly destroy the next SCOTUS nominee. That’s golden.

I believe that if Kav lost, the GOP would not have cleaned out those 4 redstate spotted owls tonight.

I never claimed you endorsed child molestation, Bitter. We can go toe to toe if you’re ever man enough to come down to NC and accuse me of pining for slavery to my face though.

As for my question, every time Menendez is in the news I have to needle you about New Jersey because of you virulent anti-Southern bigotry while expressing an interest in the single sleaziest state in this country.

A couple of days ago predicted that both sides would likely be able to claim victory, and they can in this split decision.

The Democrats can claim victory for winning the House. I had predicted they could pull as many as 30 seats, and it appears to be higher (some are predicting 35)

The Republicans can claim victory in the Senate races. Four seats (depending on the Arizona and Nevada outcomes) is more than I expected (2-3 seats)

Also the Republicans are doing very well in the governors races –Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin is close. Some people were claiming they could lose eight state houses.

No wave on other side. Its more of a draw.

Another vote that makes me a happy camper is in Colorado, an anti-fracking initiative is going down 57.5% to 42.4%. Some polls had shown it with a small lead. This may disappoint lisab.

Two years from now Trump and all the congressional seats will be up for election. Will be interesting to watch.

Roll with it, Robbie. Nothing lasts forever, Be glad we have a President who fights back. According to conventional wisdom, a GOP president no matter who it was was gonna lose seats in this first midterm. Trump is no dummy. He’s had setbacks before.

I predict that he will tell the GOP congress caucus that he wants to do infrastructure spending, in return for modest wall funding. They better get on board, or he will do the deal with Dems alone, but would rather it be the GOP’s idea.

I may disagree with the “suburban voters are a problem”. There are mixed messages being sent tonight that I can’t fully identify with. On a meta level, people want Republicans representing them in the Senate and at the state/gubernatorial level, but they also want a check on Trump’s power by voting Dem in House elections.

I wonder how much the disruption caused by the hurricane affected polling in FL? Because DeSantis outperformed the RCP average by more than 4 points and Scott outperformed by 3 points.

Based on what the Selzer poll said, I thought the IA GOP GOV was toast. That’s a good GOP surprise– somebody said there were none, but IA GOV certainly qualifies. Grassley is 85, so it’s … important, too.

861. “In the meantime, “I warned you soulless degenerates…””

Wow, and honest politician. He just didn’t understand that soulless degenerates comprise 64% of the voting population. He should targeted them with a direct mail campaign. Promised them all sorts of goodies. He could have won.

EML says:
November 7, 2018 at 12:18 am
I may disagree with the “suburban voters are a problem”. There are mixed messages being sent tonight that I can’t fully identify with. On a meta level, people want Republicans representing them in the Senate and at the state/gubernatorial level, but they also want a check on Trump’s power by voting Dem in House elections.

– The Senate has everything to do with the class of Senators up this year. Had it been the 2016 class, I think the results would have been far different. This Democrat class of Senators ran in two great years for Democrats. Reality in traditional Republican states caught up with them.

Thanks, Phil. I’m not shy about which way I lean politically, but I try to analyze things as dispassionately as possible. I don’t always get it it right—I didn’t expect losses this big in the House—but I try.

As far as NC, since I live here I feel obligated to give the rest of you superior analysis on it. I do as much research as I can before I state my views. I feel I owe that to all of you.

The time to analyze all this will come later, as well as all my predictions, which look pretty good once again for the most part…

But, there was a Blue Wave.

And there was a Red Wall.

Something for everyone.

Democrats would have done better in big races if they had not nominated candidates so far to the left.

Republicans would have done better in all sorts of races if not for the anchor of DJT. It looks like every single CD that went for Clinton, and had a GOP Congressman is now going blue. That’s really bad for Republicans.

Democrats were ultra-energized this year, but Republicans matched it for the most part. The way the left acted on Kavanaugh was political malpractice. They hurt themselves big-time.

Republican party machinery, built up years ago by the RNC, etc, is still pretty good.

There will be a Presidential election in two years and both major parties should be very afraid of losing the way they are currently headed because neither seems capable of addressing their fundamental problems and why half the country considers each of them toxic and unacceptable.

I drove to North Carolina once. No need to ever do it again. The Outer Banks are over-rated. Sand is sand.

There is nothing I like about the South except it elects Republicans. I hate the history, weather, fake friendliness of the residents and their awful accents.

Every time Wes tries to tie me to Menendez, I will remind him that, unlike him, no pregnant women was ever beaten because of me.

“I’m going a bit out on a limb, but I’m calling WI Gov for Scott Waker. Evers has been averaging a bit over 600 vote lead per precinct in Dane (Madison) but there are only 11 left. Walker has lots of votes yet to report in rural areas and the Fox River Valley. Walker by 12-25,000”

903. CG, agree with a lot of what you said. A polarization is taking place. And the relative strength of both sides will be tested when Trump runs for re-election, and the House is again up for re-election.

875. Jai. No, futures rise on the realization that Republicans keep and expand the big boy seats of power (senate and big state governorships). Sucks losing the house, but we get a re do in 2 years, a presidential year.

SanDiegoCitizen says:
November 7, 2018 at 12:31 am
903. CG, agree with a lot of what you said. A polarization is taking place. And the relative strength of both sides will be tested when Trump runs for re-election, and the House is again up for re-election.

– The suburbs would flip back to Republicans quickly if Trump stopped acting like a nutjob or Trump decided not to run and Haley was the nominee (that won’t happen by the way). The suburbs were a reaction to Trump’s behavior.

I know, Mnw. For a long time I thought MacReady would win, but I always gave Harris a shot. Once I observed Harris’ ground game and aggressive airwave strategy, I reconsidered and gave him the edge.

Colonel McSally’s lead is back up to about 7600. Anybody know anything about LaPaz County out there? It hasn’t reported any votes. It’s in SW AZ and surrounded by red counties.

Marv says:
November 7, 2018 at 12:34 am
Colonel McSally’s lead is back up to about 7600. Anybody know anything about LaPaz County out there? It hasn’t reported any votes. It’s in SW AZ and surrounded by red counties.

890. “(I probably missed Mitt Romney’s victory speech to see it)”

You can watch a recording of it. Was a good speech, he started out quoted Major Taylor the Utah National Guard member who recently died in Afghanistan.

We will see what happens, but I have memory from past elections regarding both Montana and Connecticut, where late in the night, or the next day, big votes suddenly came in for Democrats and Republicans lost.

In a prior post, I contrasted the results we’re seeing to those of 2010. In both cases, the balance of power shifted in Washington, with the President retaining a majority in the Senate (in ’10 a diminished majority, and in ’18 an increased majority) and losing a majority in the House.

Now turn the clock back to 2002. The Republicans GAINED a majority in the Senate and ADDED 8 seats to their majority in the House. We added to both of those majorities in 2004 while retaining the White House. Things were looking very good for the R team.

Then what happened? The invasion of Iraq turned into a quagmire, and we lost the House majority in 2006. Then, came the Financial Crisis of 2008.

President George W. Bush became something of a pariah within his own party. And, Speaker Denny Hastert became the highest ranking politician in history to wind up in jail.

Presidents (and Governors) often have to deal with divided government. We will see how this President does in such a situation. But, there are worse things than not winning your first election.

Alabama aside, Senate map is really tough for Republicans in 2020, but that’s like an eon from now.

As expected, I see that several here have taken my lead from weeks ago in the “gridlock will be ok” and “in spite of everything, including Democrats winning the House, I am not unhappy…”

This shows
49.1% Scott Walker* GOP 1,179,784
49% Tony Evers Dem 1,177,363
2% Other 47,157
92.2% of precincts reporting (3,389/3,676) *Incumbent
2,404,304 total votes

944. Gun control seems to have fizzled as an issue this year. The latest Gallup poll is showing the majority of people are now against an “assault” rifle ban

I always said Bost would win. Impressive showing for him.

(Sadly I called every race in my state correctly, including the unfortunate defeat from Randy Hultgren, which a couple of weeks ago I was told that I was nuts for even being concerned about since all the toupees were saying “Leans R.”

But the person I had pegged as a loser from Day 1, was mnw’s boy Kris Kobach.

Walker appears poised to win, as the remaining areas are more GOP oriented. Also, the Rosendale and Tester gap in MT is narrowing, with Rosendale gaining on Tester.

Not true about MT. What happened was a late Indian Reservation dump put Tester ahead, but it wasn’t a big dump. Tester was up more at this stage last time around.

As for CT I think that did happen, but the lead for the R is bigger now, about 30k votes and 83% in. That being said it shows New Haven only at 3% and a big lead for Lamont.

I’m sorry, folks. The Senate aside, this is a really bad result. It never should have happened. If Trump saved the Senate, he absolutely cost the party the House.

Jonathan Karl
@jonkarl

ABC New projects that the Democrats will pick up between 32 and 36 seats in the House.

Actually I met him once, and he was sort of fun. But I shouldn’t say that on the board, or I might get exiled to Bogo Pogo.

In smaller Western states, many people get to know political office holders. Often if they like them, they will vote for them irrespective of their politics.

Well, it looks like even my County Commissioner lost in formerly completely safe GOP suburban territory. Complete bloodbath for Republicans in Chicagoland.

For the first time in my life, I have zero Republicans representing me at any level of government.. well, unless Township counts.

968. “I’m sorry, folks. The Senate aside, this is a really bad result. It never should have happened.”

Sorry to disagree Robbie, but it is normal for the party in power to lose House seats in a mid-term election. Your talking about maybe a 10-15 seat majority, which not overwhelming.

#972 That’s exactly how I see the election result, except I’ll add my disappointment over the MI senate race. Unfortunately, James seem to get a late momentum rush.

Trump didn’t cost the party the House. There were a lot of other factors, PA gerrymandering, retirements (no they weren’t all because of Trump, actually most weren’t and the normal loss of seats in midterms).

985. Chicagoland is a big place and very diverse. There are lots of areas (even within the City of Chicago itself) that are quite affluent. It’s horrific though that some parts of the city see such horrific violence and despair. Not really something to joke about.

What Robbie misses is that the GOP held gov in very Dem states like MD and CT, while picking up significant seats in senate so this is not a wave. It’s hard to have a wave given these results, especially when Nelson loses in FL.

I’ve said all along that’ if Dems control House it will be all impeachment and Russia for 2 years which plays into GOP hands for 2020. Lest not forget that the Dems won mainly due to House retirements of NeverTrumpers so many of these will be competitive in 2020.

Jason, take responsibility for your actions! On another note the most the dems can win is 35 seats. Not good for Republicans but, could of been a lot worse.

well I guess that Indiana is a solid restate no matter what. GOP lost a few general assembly seats but still hold supermajorities in both chambers. No state Dem officeholders still.

The guy on MSNBC just said there are 40,000 uncounted absentee ballots to be counted in Milwaukee County during the next hour. Could doom Walker if true 🙁

If you are truly “unhappy”, you are in the first state of grief, which is denial.

Or you have simply now come around to my position that other things up this year, such as the Senate, were more important than the House. I knew you would.

Speaking of Jeb Bush, I think the campaigning he did for both Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis made a big difference in getting them votes from traditional Republican types who were turned off by Trump. So, please clap for Jeb!

The party out of power goes into the midterm with a lot of energy. Trump, simply by winning, gave the other party an advantage. But, more so, his personality is quite abrasive, and that further energized the opposition. On the other hand, he personally revved up the base of the Republican Party and of his followers. That juiced our turnout and made us sufficiently competitive to win in the red- and reddish-purple state Senate races.

So, he was both the cause and the cure of our problems in the midterms.

Do you reckon there is not enough outstanding Democrat votes for Abrams to catch up in Georgia?

I still maintain that the most electable candidates in each party, in both Florida and Georgia, lost in the primaries, but someone had to still win those races.

Bill Nelson has conceded to our new Senator & my new colleague @ScottforFlorida. What exactly is CNN & other outlets waiting for to call the race? We don’t need CNN to swear him in to the Senate,but its kind of annoying anyways.

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 7, 2018

Is this true? Cn and n will not call Florida Senate?

If we can hold the House losses below 30, Walker, Rosendale, Heller, and McSally winning, that’s okay. Disappointing to lose control of the House but we made great gains in the Senate.

No other GOP President would have buckled on Kavanaugh. Good for Trump for not pulling the plug, even as allegations of sexual assault hit close to home for him.

You do remember that President George H.W. Bush stood by Clarence Thomas and GWB never wavered from his commitment to our troops in Iraq.

1038: Still unknown. There are a bunch of provisional and absentee ballots outstanding. Plus, most of the remaining live vote is in the Metro Atlanta area. If I had to guess, I would think Kemp barely hangs on.

The present count of the Mia Love race in Utah is 52% McAdams and 48% Love. However, most the vote that has been counted is from Salt Lake County which is more Democratic. There are a lot of votes to be counted in very Republican Utah County. The winner may not be know for a few days. There are a lot of mail ballots that need to be counted.

The Federalist Society picked Kavanaugh for SCOTUS, but whatever. It was great to see a Bush Loyalist get the job, and of course the former President was influential in getting Susan Collins and others to vote yes.

I doubt Bush 1 the Perv would have done that given the Senate today. …and yes, he is a perv for grabbing women regardless of his war record and govt leadership. It was always clear Thomas would be confirmed.

It would be disappointing if Mia Love joined Carlos Curbelo and Mike Coffman in being the NeverTrump Republicans who lost tonight to Democrats. Very few of them even attempted to run this year.

In all those districts, I am sure a good deal of Trump die-hards decided to punish them.

Trump calls Pelosi to congratulate her
President Trump called House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. to congratulate her, Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff Drew Hammill tweeted.

Hammill said Mr. Trump acknowledged Pelosi’s call for bipartisanship in her remark

Sorry. I used to respect elder Bush though I thought he became out of touch as POTUS.

It’s disgusting that an elderly man grabs a young woman. This was not consensual. Regardless if he was POTUS or a war hero, most men would not stand for this if it were their daughter or wife being grabbed. He’s a perv!

1079.”Trump should appoint Cruz to Thomas’ SCOTUS seat next year.”

I don’t think sitting politicians should be appointed to cabinet positions or nominated to become a judge. It leads to situations like the Alabama special election.

DeSantis came out to Starship’s “We Built This City.”

putting aside the fact that the song is about ultra-left San Francisco, that is a bold choice. Many people consider it among the worst songs ever made. I sort of like it though.

Looking at where the uncounted votes are in Mia Love’s district, I could see her pulling ahead. Utah County is one of the most Republican places in the nation.

Hoping for Rosendale to win but I understand that Tester is still waiting for the ‘urban’ cities of Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman to come in.
And I would use the term urban lighly here.

Maricopa has 13% out but Sinema only built like a 10k lead there with 87% counted. So it’s hard to see how she can make up the difference with what is left.

Montana update: Gallatin county the only hope for tester. 2800 vote lead for Rosendale as I type. If form holds in Gallatin, 40% vote left could net Tester 2000 votes or so. Rest of outlying counties should be GOP favored.

You all really need to find a way to watch Beto’s concession speech online tomorrow or whenever. You will thank me. If C-SPAN has it, they won’t bleep out the F-bombs.

Ok. was fox news pathetic tonight? they were embarrassing msnbc and cnn analysis was better than fox. Fox needs to decide do they want to be cnn light or take their own path.

So fox news panel lets the far left dem dominate and 10 minute conversation. I can get this on msnbc. ugh. go Rosendale. too bad about heller. I think Nevada is a lost cause so long as casinos pay there employees to vote.

If Tester wins, he can thank the Libertarian, which is only fair since the DEMs circulated his petitions for him. If McSally wins, she can thank the Green.

Ironically, both the Liber in MT & the Green in AZ dropped out.

total votes cast according to Montana SOS and votes reported on Politico
Big Blue Counties going for Tester
Lewis & Clark 31,013 30,794
Missoula 22,742 22,626
Cascade 17,759 17,627
Silver Bow 16,321 16,127

Vote counts break big for D team in NV and WI. R team holding on to narrow margins in AZ (Sen), CT (Gov), GA (Gov) and MT (Sen). Rs have been stuck at 191 in the House for a while, while Ds move closer to 218 and more.

Congratulations to the Democrats for the big bounce back from their gut-wrenching loses of 2016.

Congratulations, too, to the Republicans for rising to the occasion and achieving a split decision.

Thank you to the tens of thousands of party activists who constitute to backbone of our two-party system.

And a special thanks to the losers, both the challengers who aspired to public service and the incumbents who have been involuntarily retired from public service.

One thing is for certain, the Virginia GOP better get its crap together and quit all the intraparty knifefighting, acting like Afghan warlords. Virginia and Nevada were just awful tonight. Those are the states I am disappointed in the most. Also a bit in Wisconsin. Guess Wisco voters though Walker has done awesome for him felt like he had overstayed his welcome.

It’s all speculation now, but what would have happened if Dean Heller had stuck to his anti-Trump outlook in a blue state instead of having embraced him so tightly the past several months?

Would he have lost in a primary to Tarkanian?

Maybe, but if not, he would have perhaps fared better against Rosen in the general election.

Bad news about Hurd. That would mean that both African-American GOP House members would have been defeated, and as far as I can tell, he is also the last of House Republicans who refused to support Trump in 2016.

With Hurd losing, off the top of my head, the only House Republican candidate I think won tonight in a district carried by Hillary is David Valadao of CA.

Sinema is a flaming hater of the military, which McCain fought for his whole career, anyone who liked McCain and voted for her would have to be a complete moron. Flake maybe.

Missoula county has plenty of vote left vito is correct as usual. 2014 there was over 40000 votes, tonight we have barely over 20000 in the county. Unfortunately not good

Right now Schumer is probably cursing McDonnell under his breath. McConnell totally screwed Schumer with holding the Kavanaugh confirmation prior to the mid-terms.

As noted above, Hurd is still winning on CNN, and that site has the vote count in the 102k range instead of the 100k range on NYTimes and other sites that say Hurd lost.

I went to David Leip’s atlas and compared the MT counties. Tester is under performing his 2012 totals in a lot of counties, and some have flipped against him.

At the Leip site the vote count in Missoula is about 24k, there were 57 k votes there in 2012.

Tester might get another 7k votes out of there but it is probably not enough.

121: I hope you are right. I agree with the 7,000 votes for Tester in Missoula, but I don’t see the 5,000 offset we need to squeak it out. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

It sounds harsh, but I think that anyone who looked at all the districts nationwide and thought Republicans would actually keep the majority was wishcasting. It was pretty clear that wasn’t going to happen, just like it was pretty clear the Democrats were not going to take over the Senate.

I will probably be in the neighborhood of 2-3 of the balance of power total, but race by race, I will be interested to see how many I got wrong. It’s probably going to be in the teens, after having only gotten 9 wrong in ’14 and 6 in ’16.

It’s very much like the Howard Dean Iowa speech from 2004 but with some kind of psychedelic substance thrown into the mix.. and 200 percent more f-bombs.

Noem’s opponent was a Pro-Life, pro-gun Democrat (and in a wheelchair.)

But also Noem admitted that after she won the primary she thought she would cruise in the general election without having to do much work. She came to learn better.

Republican John Faso of New York was unseated by an urban rapper, but on the other hand, on the West Coast, Young Kim might be in good shape for the GOP.

Yup. Rosendale is pulling away, probably outside of margin that Missoula can bring Tester back. I think we can dun this night “The Revenge of Kavanugh on Democrats”

Looking at Ballot Measures, Marijuana (medical and recreational) doing well, Also: Medicaid expansion, Voted ID, Restoration of voter rights to felons after they’ve served their time. Transgender Bathrooms in Massachusetts. Gas tax repeal in California. Sanctuary cities in Oregon.

“So every Dem Senator in a competitive race who voted against Kavanaugh lost (Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and almost certainly Nelson), and the one who voted for Kavanaugh survived (Manchin). Coincidence?”

First

Rick Scott is going to win.

CNN calls Indiana for Donnelly.

“A passing mention about this or that doesn’t qualify as making it the centerpiece.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/of-course-trump-is-talking-about-the-economy-who-says-hes-not

“Add the three speeches together, and Trump spent about 5,320 words on the economy versus about 4,730 words on illegal immigration. One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?”

5 like as many seats as I hope the R win tonight

NYCmike says:

November 6, 2018 at 6:06 pm

“A passing mention about this or that doesn’t qualify as making it the centerpiece.”

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/of-course-trump-is-talking-about-the-economy-who-says-hes-not

“Add the three speeches together, and Trump spent about 5,320 words on the economy versus about 4,730 words on illegal immigration. One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?”

– Bless your heart. If you think Trump’s focus the last ten days was both the economy and immigration, then I can’t help you.

EML… are you joking?

Robbie,

Didn’t you say you were not going to be around tonight?

#3 LOL

“One can think that is too much of one thing, or not enough of the other, but where is the evidence that Trump is ignoring the economy to obsess about illegal immigration?””

If you only watch the MSM, then you think immigration was the focus.

First two very early county results in IN are better for GOP than Young-Bayh in 2016 by percent.

574. Previous thread.

Marv, agreed, not done yet, but I just left several GOP Precincts that are filling up again as people get off work. I bet the same is going on all over the state. Yes, in blue areas too, but today is a GOP day and I think our numbers go up. Also, as I pointed out last night, black turnout in this election has been just under 13%. 13% in a race with Gillum, slightly less than their % of the electorate. The magic just isn’t there for them.

Mr. Vito,

Would that be a Boom!?

But the third is terrible.

Indiana Senate

Braun 53.6%

Donnelly 42.4%

I’m going back & forth to Breitbart’s Live election results feed.

Indiana could be a blow out

No called races as of yet.

#3 EML – Not Funny!!

“Indiana could be a blow out”

-For whom?

John Ralston is getting a little nervous about NV…

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059947407792836618?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Libertarian holding strong at 4% or so.

The next few are coming in like 2016.

Wonder if CNN inputted one county backwards…

P redictit did not like the early In results…donnelly down to 44%

Henry Olsen? @henryolsenEPPC

Follow Follow @henryolsenEPPC

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Next two IN counties in – early returns have Brain running 5-10% ahead of Mourdock in 2012. More very good GOP news.

#21 NYCMike,

Notre Dame

John

RE:NV

So is Breitbart, only the other way.

Wes has not mentioned Lucy Brenton at all…..why is that?

Mr.Vito’s the man … er sock.

Richard Baris

? @Peoples_Pundit

1m1 minute ago

So, we see the numbers in Democratic strongholds. Miami Dade at 101% of 2016.

0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Braun looks good. Jackie Walorski almost at 70 percent

Indiana senate election Mike Braun (R): 62.4% Joe Donnelly (D): 33.3% 1% reported

@henryolsenEPPC

Braun 17% ahead of Mourdock in Miami county 14/31 precincts reporting. Rural areas coming in big for GOP in early returns. VERY big.

Just went to the site for the county… CNN put Whitley county in backwards.

will somebody be kind and share the best state results link. I want in on that sweet Indiana action.

Good one, Marv.

What Ralston says in the link above, post 22, is DEM-optimistic: that either the DEMs have a blowout win, or the GOP cleans up on indies & crossovers.

So, I disagree with John’s interpretation.

Literally raining right now on Gollum’s parade.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1059944623412523008

from the last thread:

567. “Bottled Sangria. 9.5%.”

Oh would I love some Brazilian sangria tonight. But have to go to a non-political meeting at which almost all the attendees are liberal democrats. If the results come in as they initially look, its going to be like a dirge. I will be serious and straight-faced, but a lot of them are going to know that privately I am smirking.

2018

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/indiana/senate

2016

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/states/indiana/senate

2012

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IN/senate/

Harris sees what we see which is nothing

this is what I found so far….

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/indiana/

Andy Barr:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/kentucky

Bruce Stanford? @brhstanford · 2m2 minutes ago

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Mike Braun is leading by a 34 POINT MARGIN in Lawrence county- where the Republican only won by 13% in 2012.

15/40 predicts reported too. Wow.

0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes

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1

Like 2

watch MD-04 – I worked very hard with a few friends to prop up the Libertarian and the Republican in the hopes of getting Anthony Brown below 50%. We doubt it’s possible because of PG County but we had fun campaigning

NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-indiana-elections.html

#43 thanks

Barris

Foxnews

.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/senate

.

New York Times

.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

40 SDC

The “sangria” I’m drinking now is to REAL sangria what Mad Dog is to Moet-Chandon.

These should be absentees in IN you are seeing.

35….

they sure as chit did

Only took 30 minutes to call KY-05

https://www.whitleygov.com/egov/documents/1541545350_79594.pdf

Nyt calls Donnelly a centrist

first race called – KY05 for the republican.

54 EML

well… the PVI IS R+31!

Probably take TWO minutes to call Pelosi’s district.

Braun is is outpreforming Murdock’s precentages in pretty much every county with precincts in by 5-10%

This looks good

jason

They also all called Sinema a “moderate centrist” for two months.

Was KY 05 supposed to be competitive?

I’m not going to say it….I don’t want to jinx anything.

But holy…

favor to ask…. when you announce calls for house districts, please include R or D and whether those are targeted districts ie blue wave or red wall results.

Barr (R-inc) is up 100 votes in KY-06, out of about 700 total, so… the results in that key race are coming in.

Scooter, watch KY-6.

Politico & Fox – can’t zoom in on counties

CNN – way behind everybody else

NYT – annoying. Switches from House to Senate view for no reason and keeps popping up the paywall thing.

All suck

RRH’s ultimate pessimist says that 5-10% improvement for Braun is NOT enough, waiting for the urban counties to drop. Make of that what you will.

Barr is up 1000 out of 4500 cast on CNN site.

CNN keeps yapping about the Exit Polls. They are junk.

Etholytics? @etholytics · 24s25 seconds ago

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Mike Braun is surging in the rural counties by around 10-15 points more than the Republican did in 2012. He’s also improved slightly off the non-rural counties as well. Good results so far for Braun.

According to NYT, Vermillion County is 48.5% (D) 40.2% (L) and 11.3% (R)

Walt is back from bridge, so I can no longer nap and have to do something constructive.

Walt (again) brought home no money winnings from bridge. So he is out of sorts…

***********************************

So…

I wilL FURTHER PREDICT that:

1. THERE WILL BE SOME ELECTION SURPRISES.

2. MANY OF THE POLLS ILL BE WRONG AND THE POLLSTERS WILL HAVE EGG ON THEIR FACES.

3. SOME OF THE POLLS WILL BE RIGHT

***************************************

4. IF THE Ds FAIL TO GAIN A MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE

then the LOONS WILL GO APE$H!T AS WILL MANY TV NEWS COMMENTATORS.

5. IF THE Ds DO WIN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE, BUT ARE DEFEATED AND LOSE SEATS IN THE SENATE, THEY WILL SAY THAT THEY WILL GET THE SENTE IN 2 YEARS AND REMAIN BAT$h!+ CRAY CRAY FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS.

6. IF THE Rs HOLD THE HOUSE AND MAKE GAINS IN THE SENATE, THE LOONY LEFT WILL BE A SPECTACLE TO BEHOLD.

Andrea Mitchell says dems pessimistic on Senate races expect to lose “several”

Listen to local Florida radio election special, it’s just gonna be nonsense on the networks before the main polls closed at 8.

If it i a good GOP night watch MSDNC to see the smug faces of the Bush RINO Nicole Wallace and Steve Smitcht along with Maddow and the drunk ODonnell.

Cow

Thx of a grateful nation!

IF GOP has a good nite, I have some more fat jokes about Gov. Justice to share.

So far so good for Braun

Everybody everywhere has been saying that Braun & KY-06 would tell the story.

I will not post my predictions until tomorrow morning. I don’t want to jinx any races tonight. I find that when I post my predictions the next day, they are almost always 100% accurate.

Cash Cow will be slugging down Peach Fuzzy Navels.

They make my milk taste GREAT!

Urban vote dump… Barr, McGrath tied around 5300 votes.

I maintain, what’s good or bad for Braun is good or bad for Hawley, too.

50 minutes in, 2% reporting. Zzzz. I thought someone said Indiana counted fast.

Vito, Fox has Bar down by 1100.

Barr is leading by 12 votes

Indiana early returns looking favorably, still a lot out so keep fingers crossed.

First vote dump for Vigo is 49-46 Donnelly within 400 votes out of 13000

@ 82 EML. Yes, but some counties are already 30%-50% done. Almost all of them have Braun getting swings he need to win.

curious to see if any network will call Indiana in 7 minutes.

Bayh won Vigo by 11, and Mourdock lost it by 21

good result for braun in Vigo

Anyone have a good live real time results site to follow? Can’t get Politico to load

Vigo almost half in. On current swing Braun is on target to in by around 1%-2%. But in other rural counties the swings are much bigger.

51. mnw said:The “sangria” I’m drinking now is to REAL sangria what Mad Dog is to Moet-Chandon.”

I drink Mormon sangria, which with fruit & juice is about 4% alcohol content.

Straight party line ticket selection for that dump from Vigo is 51-48 GOP.

Ooops .. did the math in Vigo wrong. Totally disaster for Donnelly …

BRAUN’S MARGINS ARE ALMOST AS GOOD AS THE INDIANA SECRETARY OF STATE, CONNIE LAWSON! LOL @ POLLSTER BARRIS!

Donnelly won 57% of votes in Vigo…today he has 49.5%

Miles Coleman? @JMilesColeman · 46s46 seconds ago

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1/3 of Vigo County in for #INSen. Donnelly up 49.5% to 46.3%. Tighter than he needs. Evan Bayh won it 53/42 in 2016.

Donnelly won Vigo by 21% in 2012. Only ahead by 3 is a disaster.

Worse for Donnelly in Vigo the Libertarian vote collapsed ..

DW – could you put your list of House races on this thread?

There are only four or five troublemaking counties in Indiana: Monroe (voting until 7, thanks to judge); Marion (Indy); St. Joseph (South Bend); and Lake.

Then there is Vigo (TH), LaPorte, Porter, Vanderburgh (Evansville).

Donnelly will try to make up margins in Lake (Gary) and Marion.

SDC

If this is really tense, I’ll have to switch to the MOAB: 100 proof rum. Straight up & neat.

Going by Vigo, Donnelly is done.

“CNN keeps yapping about the Exit Polls. They are junk.”

-Someone was here earlier pushing those…forgot his name….

IN swizerland county is almost all in. Braun is getting a massive 16% swing

Little Switzerland County reporting 10/12 precincts. Braun up by 32. Donnelly lost by 1 in 2012. Trump won by 44.

54-46 Barr with 18000 cast (2%)

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard

————————————————————————————————-

C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.

————————————————————————————————-

CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3

FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | 3.3

AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1

SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8

MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.6

NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4

GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4

NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1

NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2

IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8

VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.8

WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7

PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5

NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4

FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3

GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2

OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1

VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7

TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4

CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4

FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2

CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1

UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1

NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3

——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-

IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3

CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4

NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4

ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5

CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6

IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6

NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7

NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7

FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.3

NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6

MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2

CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1

NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2

NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2

NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6

AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8

CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1

PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5

MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5

FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4

PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4

NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4

CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

*indicates open seat

Gary, Indiana wont vote as heavy as they did in 2012 when Obama was on the ticket…If Vigo holds up plus what Ive already seen Id pretty much call this one.

Braun up 60-35 with 4% in. This looks real good for him so far.

Pasco EV. 55-45 Scott… between Rubio and Romney performance overall.

Citrus 66-34 on par with Rubio.

What have I missed so far today?

Barr is down some 200 votes with 6.4% in. This will be a nail biter.

538 claimed that GOP chances in IN Senate is at best 38%… . Now we know how to view the 538 projections

Osceola 59-41 worse than Rubio, better than Trump.

jason

If Braun wins, Andrea could be right.

But…but… what about all that WH doom & gloom the NYT reported about 2 hrs ago?

Pinellas 54-46 Nelson. Not good early numbers.

“Pinellas 54-46 Nelson. Not good early numbers.”

-Not good for whom?

Pasco EV? Remember, Republicans in Florida vote in heavier numbers than Dems on ED!

And he beat an incumbent by 10.

Vermillion County, IN about 1/3 in. Braun up by 11. Donnelly won by 16 in 2012.

Leon 67-34. Worse than 2016 overall, but Gillum’s home base.

I think IN is done. The focus should be on FL where things do not look as good.

Donnelly at 35% at Predictit

Need some blue areas to come in.

What have I missed?

Pinellas EV vote results seems to indicate that the EV Indy vote is breaking for Dems. Not good..

103. “I’ll have to switch to the MOAB: 100 proof rum. Straight up & neat.”

Yikes. You may miss the final results. We have some cachaca, a Brazil rum around — but am not a rum fan.

127

Check out @PeterSchorsch twitter. He has updates on Florida voting.

Barr up 1300 votes.

Indianapolis now starting to come in. I expect 65-35 Donnelly.

Per CNN, Barr (R-KY-06) is +10% with 4% in. Unless I missed something.

128 — It’s early.

Braun will be called early.

Stewart has 70% in VA.

Time to call it?

Knox County, IN 2/3 reported. Braun +27. Donnelly lost by less than 100 votes here in 2012.

NYT has Barr +4% with 9% reporting.

And a big Knoxville dump puts Barr down 5.2% with 17% reporting.

Getting worried about Florida. Heard Miami Dade was massive turnout.

Indianapolis and st Joseph coming in bluer… like 2012.

Indiana is over.

Back and forth we go, its Barr vs McGrath.

This election looks between 2012 and 2016 so far, which I said the gallup data pointed to.

The Miami-Date EV result does not look that bad

FLORIDA SENATE: Trump and Scott getting same % in Seminole County (marginal Orlando suburbs)

Marion County in Indiana is starting to come in.

Does everybody have their “Trump was irrelevant to this election” argument ready just in case there is a blue wave?

Do Robbie and CG have their excuses, scorn and judgmental comments ready in case there is not a blue wave?

N/t

Yeah, Florida doesn’t look good; looks like our optimism was misplaced earlier. Indiana looks good.

Florida is close, but DeSantis overperforming.

Remember, the Ds have seven big counties or so. GOP has the rest. St. John is a 50K margin alone.

Barr now down 8.

Barr has to weather Knoxville/Fayette County. They are currently 60% reported and he’s down by 20 there. The rest of the district is lagging. Should make up some votes, but would be good to drop that margin down to 15-16 in Knoxville.

second dump has braun ahead in vigo by 60 votes

Big vote Dem vote drop in Florida

Ahhh, Miami Dade just had a big vote dump

Come on Todd. This is how it is in Florida the big cities come in then the rural areas blow the doors off. Just look at 2016

Curbelo down 2500 votes after early voting. He should be good with election day results.

Fox already called Virginia for Kaine

Has panhandle closed yet?

Where are y’all getting these results from. CNN is not showing any of the updates you are seeing

Hillary was NEVER his far ahead in FL on election night in 2016! It’s OVER FOR DEMENTUS!!!

Hugh

Richard Baris is pessimistic based on Pinellas.

Salazar down 6.6% FL-27. Tighter, but seems doable.

Tina, no. 30 minutes left

big lake county dump. braun still looking good.

Come on Florida voters!

Make it happen!

Broward and Palm Beach are coming in.

Too close to call Florida on the margins yet.

Barr is not out of it yet. Kentucky 6th is still in play. Barr will close at the end.

Fl panhandle is still voting.

Need to see how the same day vote comes in for Florida.

Does not look like Scott is going to make it in FL. Oh well …

CNN says with 33% in, McGrath (D) leads Barr (R) by 9000 votes in KY-06.

Florida looks like 2016 all over again

CNN is waaaay behind….

171 — Dude! Lee and Collier haven’t reported. Relax 🙂

Comstock getting crushed.

Lee EV comes in 70-30 for Scott.

If the Predictit investors are right, Donnelly is toast.

Down goes Comstock. No surprise really.

Palm Beach and Orange County with vote dumps, Lee drops a 59% vote dump. We’ll see.

errr, the NV senate race is listed has Hagan vs. Heller….

In FL places like St. John’s and Brevard seems to indicate that Scott is not going to make it unless other Rural and Panhandle comes in even heavier for GOP than Trump 2016 AND Scott outperforms Trump in SE FL. Unlikely.

on cnn

Wouldn’t it be nice if these talking heads could comment on what counties are reporting

ABC Exit Indiana

Men 55-41 Braun

Women 50-44 Donnelly

You do the math.

Remember, about this time Hillary had a 2.4% lead in Florida. Be patient.

AND Scott outperforms Trump in SE FL”

Actually that looks likely at least in Miami Dade

FL Martin County. Is is pretty much done. Trump won 61-35. Scott wins 60.4-39.6. It seems Scott will very likely get Trump’s vote share of 48%-49% overall but there are no significant third party candidates and Nelson will win almost all the rest.

Orange and Jay counties are the first to be fully reported in Indiana. 22 and 30 point swing, respectively, to Braun.

Toss-up Kentucky 6th district is flipping blue.

Miami-Dade is disappointing so far for Nelson.

Brat (R-inc VA-07) is tied, with 37% in, per CNN.

Farewell to Comstock. We barely knew you.

@187. Jason. Agreed. If somehow Scott outperforms Trump in SE FL then we have some hope

Pinellas has closed just enough to be okay.

Can’t we just report the numbers, and maybe a comparison to 2014/2016 if you want?

Leave out the up-and-down editorializing until the votes are all in.

Reps wasted way too much money in VA-10

Ok, Donnelly is gone.

Gary IN 99% in only nets 16000 for Donnelly? That;s gotta be a mistake on my map right? That would be abysmal turnout.

Drip drip drip. Scott and Desantis closing.

Holy crap, KY-6 is close! True nail-biter race.

You people must love watching tennis matches…

Be patient. This is the early and AB coming in. Today’s vote will be last and where we make it up if we do.

My map has Barr and McGrath tied with 60% in.

Hope McCaskill goes where Donnelly went, then.

Donnelly says, Je suis parti!

Most of what is seen in FL is EV.

How far are we in RE: FL? CNN does not have % of precincts reporting.

I wanted DOnnelly, McCaskill and Nelson to lose, those were my Senate “targets”.

I hate flaming liberals pretending to be moderate.

Nelson might survive, but Donnelly and McCaskill are going down.

Vito, link?

At Caesars in Vegas power flickering. The TV has no signal. Ugh

in NOVA, Barbara Comstock (R–Incumbent) getting beat by Jennifer Wexton.

Comstock got Wextoned.

Barr has pulled to almost even and Bratt is winning.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/kentucky

Barr up 2 with 66% in

Be careful with some of these states reporting. Some counties are just EV.

Has Indiana been called?

Judges have ordered polls to stay open later in one county in Atlanta area and also in NW Indiana…

WAY TOO EARLY to get your panties in a wad over the House or Florida.

EV in the keys/everglades is THISCLOSE

Shalala wins FL-27. Second pickup.

Gary IN 99% in only nets 16000 for Donnelly? That;s gotta be a mistake on my map right? That would be abysmal turnout.

===============================

That’s just early vote.

Why would they give Shlala a pickup truck if she already has one?

Braun running a couple points worse than Trump.

My concern are the suburbs in the House.

Good early result from Scott out of Orange.

If he wins it may be the missing Latino vote I have been harping on.

Riggleman(R) wins VA-05. Good hold.

20 …just early vote…go to a site than has precinct reporting in counties.

Calling tossup house seats in Florida and Virginia and Indiana is at 20% in 2 hours later.

The Panhandle just closed.

Pinellas TIGHTENING.

Please recall Alex Sink, Scott’s foe in 2010, did not concede until late Wednesday.

GOP holds FL-25. Huge.

MSNBC guy doing a great job of comparing current numbers to 2016. That really gives meaning to the numbers by putting them in perspective.

Big Joe

Florida is really tight right now y’all.

Desantis and the lunatic basically tied

Now we move into the eternal battle: Panhandle vs SE FL.

WG

I didn’t know Diaz-Balart was even in jeopardy.

This is actually trending well regarding Florida. Half of Miami Dade in, 34% of Broward in

No call yet for Indiana sen?

Margin in Orlando is doable right now 89% in.

FL panhandle counties EV/VBM votes coming in.

DeSantis & Scott closing impressively.

Scott and DeSantis just took lead in FL…30 minutes before Trump did two years ago

CNN has DeSantis up with 83% in!

CNN sez that with 71% in, Barr (R-KY-06) leads McGrath (D) by over 3000 votes.

Initial look at House races says the House is lost. It is now a battle to keep the Dem majority as small as possible.

Stewart deadender is actually polling better than I thought he would.

I’m watching this at The NY Times site.

DeSantis down by only 18000 votes

The actual margins of Dade-Broward-Palm Beach seem baked in. The ebb and flow may change but the margins are in!

Scott and Ron may do this yet! Shades of 2016!

Scott is ahead too.

CNN sez that with 66% in, Brat (R-inc) leads the DEM by 3000 in VA-07.

I am not holding that much hope for FL. It seems outside of SE FL Scott is matching Trump’s vote share but that is not enough in a 2 way race. It has to be Scott over-performance in both SE FL and Panhandle relative to Trump. Still seems less likely than not.

Wow, Nelson down to a 20K lead

Update: Scott goes into the lead.

VA_02 – Scott Taylor up by 8000 votes.

Jax and Tampa area now doable.

VA_02 – Scott Taylor up by 8000 votes.

I think they should be able to call Braun soon.

538 is updating house and senate probabilities in real time. Currently 97.4% for R’s to hold the senate and 32.4% to hold the house, which is trending up for the R’s. Hope the trend continues.

DW 253

Good to hear.

Scott/DeSantis now lead

241 – lol.

Half of Broward in now. Scott and DeSantis still in the lead.

They are sitting on the Indiana senate race.

538 projects to D house gains is down to 28 from an initial estimate in the 38-39 range.

Spano(R) wins FL-15. Good hold of a tossup seat.

Lee and Collier have only reported EV vote.

You have to put a stake through the heart of Rick Scott to defeat this man.

Relentless.

So far things looking tight but leaning the GOP way (for now)…..

Margins in Palm BEach and Miami are doable at the moment.

Crowley Report

@crowleyreport

·

1m

DeSantis 3,490,709 Gillum 3,457,754 …. Trump? #sayfie

https://mobile.twitter.com/crowleyreport

75% in, & Barr (R) +7000 on McGrath (D) now in KY-06. That translates to Barr +3%, btw.

Time for the mathematician to get a new toupee.

Btw, I like the nickname 3 toupees.

Same day vote flipped Sarasota big time.

538 projects to D house gains is down to 28 from an initial estimate in the 38-39 range.”

Wow, 28 is awfully close to 23…..

260 Tina

RE: IN SEN

Surprised? /s

CNN & NYT have basically the same number of votes in, but NYT says at 65% complete and CNN has 90% in.

3 toupees.

3 Jebots

I got 3 votes in the Ca senate Race. That is 3 more than the number of viewers at the troll blog.

Wow, bensue long time no see…

Yeah baby! Fl supervoters kickin in!

SPANO! Good hold.

just like I said earlier today, DeSantis doing slightly better than Scott.

Foxnews about to call Virginia 10

Comstock losing by 15%

DRUDGE just posted from 538 “DEMS CHANCE TO TAKE HOUSE 39.3%”

Jason, if dems pick up 28 seats, that’s weak with all of their rhetoric and identity politics. Would they win the house? Yes. Would it really be a win for them? Probably not.

Marion and lake county IN are sandbagging

At least with these results TX and TN are clearly safe and MO should almost a sure pickup.

Good Lord! CNN is falling for the Broward schtick of 2016 again! Saying that it’s ONLY 51% reported (but ignoring that a half million votes have been counted already).

Whoops, Predictit now has DeSantis at 61%

GOP chances of keeping house rising steadily at 538.

In Florida it is about balance.

Jax cancels Leon.

Orlando burbs cancels Orlando.

The Villages cancels Osceola.

Tampa burbs cancel Tampa.

OCala cancels Gainesville.

It is now SEFL versus SWFL, panhandle and the rest.

Ok,

Drudge said something else 1 hour ago.

Baris flaked on Indiana.

Schweikart deleted more tweets in Az this am.

Are these 3 all on somethings?

NonCensus is ALWAYS wrong, so there is that.

He drove by to say Gillum had won.

Quinnipiac: We need a rescue poll in Florida.

Local paper called it for Barr.

I’m at a party for the Kentucky Duke basketball game, but just saw this tweet.

WOW!

Marc Caputo

@MarcACaputo

There were probably 8 million votes cast in Florida’s 2018 election. With 7 million votes in,

DeSantis leads Gillum by 28,754

And

Scott leads Nelson by 11,334

At this rate, it’s looking strongly Republican

Well somebody is predicting 3 house pick ups in Indiana for us.

“2016 Silverfish.”

Jason, if dems pick up 28 seats, that’s weak with all of their rhetoric and identity politics. Would they win the house? Yes. Would it really be a win for them? Probably not.”

A win is a win

But obviously if they only have a 10 seat majority they won’t be very effective.

NC-09. 6% in. Harris (R) down by 3000 votes (2,7%).

CNN.com has better numbers than Fox.

91% in.

70K up!

Michigan Senate

James 52%

1%

DeWine creeping up on Cordray.

Miami Dade is 75% in.

538 now to 57.2 for Dems…..clearly they are trying to extrapolate data from 1 area to the other to make their claims

I have never been a drinker,but I think I’ll take one of every alcoholic drink you all mentioned earlier tonight. This is driving me crazy.

2nd Limoncello.

P1/2 glass of opus.

Watching CNN as well ironically; their election night coverage is just so much better.

Foxnews calls

Shalala wins

Republican wins FL#6

I’m gonna call Indiana for the GOP

Barr (KY) & Brat (VA) holding up well so far, with about 75% in.

No idea what’s still out, of course. Could be the KY & VA equivalent of East St. Louis still out, for all I know.

FL stuck at 93%

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard

————————————————————————————————-

C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.

————————————————————————————————-

CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3

FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | GOP HOLDS

AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1

SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8

MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4

GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4

NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1

NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2

IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8

VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7

PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5

NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4

FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3

GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2

OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1

VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7

TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4

CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4

FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2

CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1

UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1

NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3

——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-

IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3

CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4

NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4

ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5

CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6

IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6

NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7

NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7

FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | DEM FLIP

NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6

MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | DEM FLIP

MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2

CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1

NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2

NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2

NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6

AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8

CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1

PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5

MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5

FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D |DEM HOLDS

PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4

NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4

CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

POLITICAL POLLS just TWEETED!!!! LOLOLOL

98% that GOP wins the SENATE

70% that GOP wins the HOUSE

Tina

What’s “opus”?

I sense u r not a big drinker. I’ve had Limoncello. Take a lot of THAT to catch a buzz.

EV dumps early showed Dem leads in Florida.

Pinellas now shows only a 500 vote lead for Nelson

Opus one. $175 a bottle.

Cruz just took lead in TX by 20K votes 34% in

They are unhappy at Kos with 538

“F-ck their model. Wait until the results come in. ALL of them.”

Are you concerned about what’s left in Broward?

Barr wins

KY-06: 79% in. Barr (R) leads by 6500 votes (51/48)

NC-09: 12% in. Def leads Harris (R) by 3700 votes (50.5/48)

VA-07. No update. Brat (R) ahead with 66%in.

Paladin – 2018 House Dashboard

————————————————————————————————-

C Dist | Cnt | Cook | Gonz. | Saba.| CNN | RCP | Fox | Kos | 538 | Poli. | Avg Scr.

————————————————————————————————-

CA_21 R | 168 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.3

FL_16 R | 169 | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | GOP HOLDS

AR_02 R | 170 | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 3.1

SC_01 R | 171 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

IA_04 R | 172 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.8

WA_03 R | 173 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Sf R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.8

MI_06 R | 174 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

NY_11 R | 175 | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

FL_06* R | 176 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

NY_24 R | 177 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.6

AK_01 R | 178 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Sf R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.4

GA_07 R | 179 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

FL_18 R | 180 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

PA_16 R | 181 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

CA_50 R | 182 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

WA_05 R | 183 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

TX_23 R | 184 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Sf R | Ln R | 2.4

NE_02 R | 185 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.4

MT_01 R | 186 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

IL_13 R | 187 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

NY_27 R | 188 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 2.2

WI_01* R | 189 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

MN_08* D | 190 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.2

OH_01 R | 191 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 2.1

NC_02 R | 192 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Toss | 2

IL_12 R | 193 | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.8

VA_05 R | 194 | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | GOP HOLDS

WV_03* R | 195 | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Lk R | Ln R | 1.7

PA_10 R | 196 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.5

NC_13 R | 197 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | 1.4

FL_15* R | 198 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Ln R | 1.3

GA_06* R | 199 | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Tlt R | Toss | 1.2

OH_12 R | 200 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | 1.1

VA_02 R | 201 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | Toss | Ln R | Ln R | Toss | Lk R | Toss | 0.7

TX_07 R | 202 | Toss | Tlt R | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.4

CA_25 R | 203 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.4

FL_26 R | 204 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

KY_06 R | 205 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss |vGOP HOLDS

PA_01 R | 206 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | 0.3

TX_32 R | 207 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | 0.2

CA_39* R | 208 | Toss | Toss | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | 0.1

UT_04 R | 209 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.1

NM_02* R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

MN_01* D | 211 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

VA_07 R | 212 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

KS_02* R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

NC_09* R | 214 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.1

CA_48 R | 215 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

NY_22 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Toss | -0.2

IL_14 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln R | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.3

——–Democrats need ALL the below for control——-

IA_03 R | 218 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.3

CA_10 R | 217 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | -0.4

NJ_03 R | 216 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.4

ME_02 R | 215 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

WA_08* R | 214 | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Toss | -0.5

CA_45 R | 213 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.5

MI_08 R | 212 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.6

IL_06 R | 211 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Tlt R | Ln D | -0.6

NJ_07 R | 210 | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | -0.7

NY_19 R | 209 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | -0.7

FL_27* R | 208 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Toss | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | DEM FLIP

NV_03* D | 207 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | -1.6

MN_02 R | 206 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

MN_03 R | 205 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

VA_10 R | 204 | Toss | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | DEM FLIP

MI_11* R | 203 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -1.8

KS_03 R | 202 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2

CO_06 R | 201 | Ln D | Tlt D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.1

NV_04* D | 200 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | -2.2

NJ_11* R | 199 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

PA_07* R | 198 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

IA_01 R | 197 | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.2

AZ_01 D | 196 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Toss | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | -2.2

NH_01* D | 195 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.6

AZ_02* R | 194 | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | -2.8

CA_49* R | 193 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Ln D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | -3.1

PA_17 R | 192 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -3.5

MN_07 D | 191 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Toss | Lk D | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | -3.5

FL_07 D | 190 | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D |DEM HOLDS

PA_08 D | 189 | Lk D | Ln D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | -4

NJ_05 D | 188 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | Lk D | -4.4

CA_07 D | 187 | Lk D | Sf D | Lk D | Sf D | Ln D | Lk D | Sf D | Sf D | Ln D | -4.4

Tina: Opus One Napa Valley Red Wine 2012, 1,999.95

lisab: Trader Joe’s Charles Shaw Merlot, $2.99

Thank you DW.

65% of Palm Beach is in. The fat lady is starting to hum

Tina

Damn! I’m impressed. I guess that doesn’t come in 6-packs?

ABC just called IN for BRAUN!!!

BOOM!

So far Siena/NY Times polling not having a good night.

Louie Golmert wins.

Always a hoot.

Called for Braun!

321- CNN says that Palm Beach is 100% in.

Miami is at 87%

Broward still stuck at 51%

New Jersey Senate

Hugin 49%

Menendez 47%

.

Michigan Senate

James 50%

Stabenow 48%

.

This is real!

This is happening!

Wow! Am around people suffering from shell shock.

BETO 49.79% CRUZ 49.6%

WV CD3 (open)… looking like an R hold.

Miller 18,200

Ojeida 13,800

So far….

Worried about FL_26

mnw is doing his Snoopy dance!!!

You’re next, Sky Queen!

AP calls it for Barr(R) in KY-06. Nice.

Nope, wine, mnw.

I have connections though.

I cannot drink that much because of reflux.

MG

How much in, in those?

Now our eyes turn to John James.

Here we go!

WHo called IN for Braun?

I’m seeing calls for Menendez

Surprised Desantos is outperhorming Scott…CW was other way around.

Criminal that they’ve waited so long to call Indiana. Obvious from the get go when it was headed. Disaster for pollsters.

Posters and Rcp PHUQIN up Indiana.

The numbers in FL does not make sense. How can Scott be trailing Trump’s lead margins almost everywhere but still ahead by 1%. I think this will shift against us once more SE FL comes in.

Lets GOOO!!!

Larry Schweikart

? @LarrySchweikart

21s21 seconds ago

Hearing that John James the Manhunter from Michigan is at a whopping 40% in Wayne Co., the D stronghold.

If that holds, get that man a senator’s desk!

Uh oh…Scott Taylor in VA_02 just lost lead.

340- Scott actually has more raw votes than DeSantis; my guess is that the Senate ballot (top of the ticket in FL) is just a straight D/R contest whereas the Governor’s race has some undervotes and third party options.

Brat also lost lead

Broward not netting enough in same day vote ya’ll…

#336 mnw, I’m just having a little fun. Relax. LOL

GOP still might well lose the house…if we lost VA_02 and VA_07 and FL_26, not looking good.

Looks like Brat is going to lose.

War Room Report from DC….Dems are EXTREMELY nervous.

seems this one is going to go to the wire like many expected here.

I am beginning to think the Trump coalition will be HUGE for James to win…he will be an awesome Senator IF he pulls this out.

Brat (R-VA-07) still looking good, with 70+% in.

NC-09 has tightened. With 20% in, DEM leads Harris by 1200 votes.

BETO 51.3% CRUZ 48.0%

BOOM!!!

Political Polls

? @PpollingNumbers

1m1 minute ago

#BREAKINGNEWS ?->?

#MOSen Josh Hawley ???

8 replies 29 retweets 54 likes

did Brat take out Cantor? That’s a republican district

#356 Missouri called

CNN says Brat +6000, with 73% in.

Brandon, u have more recent returns?

WV–U.S. Senate eqrly and partial results

99,000 Manchin

88,000 Morrisey

Morrisey underperforming in his home area (Eastern Panhandle) any lagging other R candidates in wouthern WV (CD3)

Seeing a lot of Libertarians having an affect on some Republicans……will Wes mention all of them for the next 20 years?

coming up on the 9pm hour…… when Chris wallace 2 years ago said Trumo “is in this”….. and Dems started getting very nervous.

NYT has Brat down 600 votes (0.2%) with 94% reporting.

mnw,

With 94%, Brat was down .2%, while the (L) had 1.2%

mnw, it’s 94% in according to NYT and the D is up 600 votes with mostly D areas left out.

“#356 Missouri called”

-Seriously?

Shouldn’t Bitterlaw be singing?

Larry Schweikart

? @LarrySchweikart

1m1 minute ago

Well, this is a firecracker: John James, the Manhunter from Michigan is running 3 points ahead of Pres. Trump in Oakland Co!

Who called MO SEN, pls?

CNN has Hawley up big, but with virtually nothing in.

#366, it’s from one outlet. Trying to find another confirming call.

WV CD #1

–MiKinley (R, Inc) up comfortably

71K to 47K

______________________________

WV CD #2

–Mooney (R, Inc) up

37K to 31K to 2K for a third party guy

Florida is over. Almost all of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami Dade are in and Scott and DeSantis still lead.

IN FL CNN Senate map made a mistake for Washington County. They flipped the numbers.

NBC calls it for Manchin.

This is who called Missouri: https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers

phoenix

Pray u r right!

NYT House dashboard doesn’t look great right now. VA-02, VA-07, NC-02, NC-09, TX-32, FL-26 looking particularly blah.

Waingro, with Missouri:

“”But we Romans are rich. We’ve got a lot of gods. We’ve got a god for everything. The only thing we don’t have a god for is premature ejaculation… but I hear that’s coming quickly.”

WV UPDATE

Manchin now up 20K Votes

135,000 to 115,000

LOL, CNN still making it sound like Beto has a chance.

How about GA Governor?

Boom.

Chad Pergram

?Verified account @ChadPergram

45s45 seconds ago

Fox projects that Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will defeat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to replace retiring GOP Senator Bob Corker.

Chad Pergram

?Verified account @ChadPergram

45s45 seconds ago

Fox projects that Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will defeat former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen to replace retiring GOP Senator Bob Corker.

NBC calls TN for Blackburn.

TN called by FoxNews

Menendez is projected a winner in NJ

and the Dem wins in MN.

The “dream” is dead

NBC calls it for Blackburn.

Every GOP Governor and Senate seat is important, but to me, Florida is the crown jewel of the night so far…….all due respect to Indiana.

fox is too slow, haven’t called anything.

Trafalgar: We need a rescue poll in Texas.

Boom.

Henry Olsen

? @henryolsenEPPC

I’m calling Florida Governor for DeSantis. The latest Broward dump means there should be less than 100,000 votes total left and DeSantis’ lead should withstand that surge. It, too, will be very close, 50,000 votes either way.

Thank god for Taylor Swift’s endorsement

Looking at NY Times site is does not look like SE FL is done. I do not think Scott’s firewall is enough to stop the Dem surge to come. Perhaps DeSantis can.

Gonna have to see every vote out of Broward and Miami to call it.

GOP now up 2 in Senate

Florida on a pause while they calculate how many votes out of Miami and Broward Democrats need.

check……up 1

Did they call Heidohoho race yet?

Keep your EYES on…James is running great percentages out of Wayne and Oakland counties in Michigan. WOW…Running a lot better than Trump in Blue areas.

IN Senate called for GOP per ABC

Hi, old friend. Making my biannual appearance. How are we looking?

I would say MO is premature. A bunch of ruby red outstate counties in, but nothing from STL or KC.

Brat dunzo.

Henry Olsen

? @henryolsenEPPC

I’m calling VA-7 for Spanberger. Very little of the vote out, all of it in Spanberger territory. Unless the ten precincts out in Chesterfield are much more GOP than the whole county, Brat is gone.

Scott with about a 50K lead in FL right now

Conceptually MO must fall given the scale of the IN victory. All these results are correlated.

House and Senate appear to be going in opposite directions tonight, right?

NJ Senate got called for Dems. Oh well, at least it seems we kept it close.

Silverhack has house 50/50…he is toast for life.

UGH! Fox calls WV for Manchin

CNN calls for Manchin. Oh well.

FOX is slow to call tonight…man.

OH Gov race looks pretty good.

The whale is happy about the nj senate race.

She will be on the view really soon,

Why would 538 say House is 50/50. They way I see it the Dems will win majority for sure. But size of majority will most likely be very slim.

Manchin saved his seat w/his Kavanaugh vote…..but he won’t do that to replace Ginsberg, thus getting voted out in 2024

FNC is frankly unwatchable. UNWATCHABLE.

Is Cruz in real trouble inTX?? 65% in and he’s down by 180K…

It seems all FL new results have stopped. What is going on?

For those who are calling the House gone, you need to hold your horses.

There is a very real possibility of an R hold of the House. What was jubilation this morning is now turned into a very scared and dark feeling.

BETO 49.2% CRUZ 50.1%

Shhh….

BNL NEWS

? @BreakingNLive

?? LIVE: BREAKING: ALERT: Republicans have taken the lead in House projections from Reuters, AP, WP.

DEVELOPING

#ElectionDay #Midterms2018

Mark Harris took back the lead in NC-09. 43% reporting.

In TX Senate it seems most of the results are the early vote. Cruz should take it.

forget the projections!!! Let’s count the votes!!

I just love Beto.

-jebot

Ohio 52% reporting…Renacci down by 5 and DeWine up by 6.

So, what has been called for us in the senate?

It’s going to be a blast to watch the Young Turk Midterm Election night tape on YouTube after this night is over…delicious.

Holy cow, if I am the DNC I am extremely worried about Stabenow

Florida #26

.

Curbelo only down by 3,000

90%

Once again, everything going according to plan. Anyone know what channel Van Jones is on?

-Hunter

NBC projects Dems take House per DRUDGE

538 down to D +24

Scanlon(D) wins PA-05. Dem Pickup. Now +3.

@ Skippy 426. We think alike !! I was just about to put in a comment about Young TUrks Meltdown video part II. Especially if we hold the House which to be fair I still think less than 50/50.

Britt Hume, mayhem ps Bfwp, said other have called Desantis the winnah,

James up 2.2%, still early.

#430 — If NBC did that they are either extremely brilliant or extremely foolish

#426 Skippy, this is one of my favorite videos to watch.

.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkPIpb8wAXk&t=517s

House does not look good to me. We gotta pull out some of these close ones. VA-02 and VA-07 can’t fall.

ABC calls WV-03 for Carol Miller(R). Good hold.

I’m afraid they are gonna find enough votes in Florida to beat Scott. Please, somebody reassure this nervous nellie.

Miami had a drop that cut Scott’s lead on CNN down to 51K votes, but they still have the Washington County mistake that makes his lead 61K.

538 says Dems now have 54% chance of taking house

Any reason to worry about Texas yet in any way?

Huge Wayne Co dump and James did 4 points better than trump and Stab did 2 points worse than Hillary

Cruz down ~130K….someone explain this!

Fox doesn’t seem to be concerned about cruz

RRH Elections

? @RRHElections

25s26 seconds ago

With 100% in, James has won Kent County by a hair. Republicans usually need to win that by more to win statewide, but Trump only won it by 3 in 2016 and still won. #MISen

Someone talk to me about Texas!

BETO 50.7% CRUZ 48.7%

If faux news is not concerned about Cruz, let’s move along.

Coffman(R) loses in CO-06. Dem Pickup. +4.

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

Fox News projects Hyde-Smith finishing 2nd in jungle primary. Phew.

Van jones whining on cnn.

This is heartbreaking.

Sounds like the Clinton groupie in 2016.

NYT just now called IN for Braun.

Karl Rove not worried about Cruz.

wow, they already called the Minnesota#2 and Wisconsin Senate race for the dems.

So, they sat on Braun for hours, despite winning by 11?

WV Legislature election

Looks like the Rs will lose:

–In State Senate, Rs will lose 2 to 3 seats (net)

–In House of Delegates looks like 8 incumbent Rs go down and 2 incumbent Ds for a net of +6 for Ds.

***************************************

Both legislative bodies stay in R control.

Um, margins that Stabenow needs in Wayne and Oakland are not there right now. Still early.

Ok, time to worry about .cruz,

If the canned ham says one thing, the opposite usually happens,

CNN says DeSantis up 100K votes with 99% reporting.

Fox projects Dem take House.

CNN has called Budd a hold on their website

FOX projects Dems take the House.

Wow, FOX calls the House for the Democrats.

I dont know if that is a mistake too.

Seriously? Fox already calling the house?

FOX calls the House and with that, I’m headed to bed.

Fox calls it for Dems flipping House control. Oh well.

James still slightly up in MI.

yeah. we’ll see.

Fox news is dead to me. Wait an extra hour to call Indiana and with polls still open call the house. What asses

So in OK Politico is telling me the OKC seat that was +20R in 2016 is now +1D in 2018? If that was the case, it WOULD be a blue wave, but I’m thinking that the polling “formula” has got to start changing especially if the GOP holds the House

Well, they would probably say they will, then in a couple of weeks proclaim the USA +37D and give Trump a .005% of winning reelection……

Political polls calling it first Scott/Desantis

Part of their strategy.

Quick calls for Ds.

Slow calls for Rs.

TX: For Gov, Abbott leads by only 8 in the raw vote. Based on the polls, he should win by 18. So, it is reasonable to suppose (hope!) he has a really big lead in the uncounted vote. If that is true, a similar thing is probably true for Cruz. On the other hand, the polls could be wrong, or there could be a last minute surge in Texas favoring the Democrats. Let’s see how this turns out.

the house is up for grabs…..it will be close either way. other networks have not called it. lets count the votes, ffs.

The Reagan Battalion

?Verified account @ReaganBattalion

16s16 seconds ago

BREAKING: With over 11% reporting, @JohnJamesMI leads @stabenow by over 2 points.

0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

Yeah let’s count. My goodness, half nation is still voting.

They are calling it to try to drive down GOP enthusiasm, in my opinion

Lamb(D) loses in PA-17. Dem Pickup. +5.

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

Is Fox trying to depress the left coast vote?? Why the hell would they make that call so erly?? On the bright side the DeSantis win is HUGE. Trump dodged a major bullet there… Florida will be a must win state for him in 2020.

Let’s just call this.

Nathaniel Rakich

? @baseballot

1m1 minute ago

14% reporting in #NDsen. Cramer (R) leads Heitkamp (D) 60% to 40%.

Try that again:

Lamb(D) wins in PA-17. Dem Pickup. +5.

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

56% of Milwakee Co in and 28% of Dane Co in but only 20% in statewide and Walker down only 14K it looks like hes headed for a 3rd term.

No, we will say Heidohoho loses in an hour.

Stabenow is leading John James by 8.4% with 44% reporting, per CNN. Not sure where this “John James is up” nonsense is coming from.

WV UPDATE

CD1

(R) McKinley cruising to reeletion (105K-62K)

CD2

(R Mooney cruising to reelection (80-65K + 5K another candidate)

CD3 (Open)

(R) Miller ( comfortably ahead…(59K-47K)

It would be awesome if Walker somehow holds on. OH gov results gives me some hope that he can. It will be Reality Part IV for Dems.

Cruz about to take the lead

The Amendment to allow convicted felons who served their time looks to pass in FL with over 60%.

Cruz leads

Burgess Everett

?Verified account @burgessev

45s46 seconds ago

Curbelo has conceded, per source familiar

Fox can no longer be considered pro R. I have noticed this for months now. Guess they are protecting themselves for inevitable Dem advantages. I also feel at heart they are anti-Trumpers.

NY Times meter has it 232-203 Dems in House.

That early House call ticks me off. Voters out in CA are still voting and a lot of crucial seats in CA.

Curbelo(R) loses in FL-26. Dem Pickup. +6.

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

FL-26

This guy called it for Desantis first

Henry Olsen

? @henryolsenEPPC

I’m calling Florida Senate for Rick Scott. Not enough votes left in Broward, Miami and Palm Beach to gain 76,000 votes. That’s the second GOP Senate gain and eliminated the possibility of Democratic Senate control.

Brandon who said, Curbelo lost?

I would just like a news source to call it for Scott and DeSantis. They got this.

I’m stunned.

Paulsen(R) loses in MN-03. Dem Pickup. +7.

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

FL-26

MN-03

We can all stop the bed wetting.

Nate Cohn

?Verified account @Nate_Cohn

12s13 seconds ago

Tex Cruz is on track for a comfortable victory in Texas, according to our estimates, even though Beto leads in the reported vote.

This is not a projection. But Beto win outside of MOE

Scott Taylor retakes the lead in VA-02, so there’s that. But Dave Brat is now down 0.6% with 97% reporting.

Yeah, the numbers look better for Scott. Not sure how he is this close to winning. I guess turnout in GOP counties are just higher than Dem counties so even if Scott’s margins are behind Trump’s margins on each county basis he will wins due to the larger size of the GOP counties votes. Also I think Palm Beach margin for Scott is better than Trump.

From Granite back to Goober

Lindsey Graham to NBC: “I think we will have a Democratic House,” per @alanhe

BETO 49.2% CRUZ 50.10%

how can fox call the house but not braun, Cramer, and even cruz and Hawley?

I think the Dem House majority is very thing and frankly not worth even having. Also in a now more possible Trump re-election in 2020 I suspect the House might flip back.

Webber(R) concedes in NJ-11. Dem pickup. +8

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

FL-26

MN-03

NJ-11

Mike Braun and Marsha Blackburn look like double digit winners at the end of the day. Trash the polls. Cruz now pulling away from Beto.

All of these calls at 7PM on the west coast are ridiculous.

Deep state is hacking the election.

Stevens(D) wins MI-11. Davids(D) wins KS-03. Dem Pickups. +10

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

FL-26

MN-03

NJ-11

KS-03

MI-11

I have not followed this as much but how come we are losing the KS gov race so badly. I knew it would be close but thought we should pull it out.

Benjy Sarlin

?Verified account @BenjySarlin

3m3 minutes ago

Rep. Dan Donovan is trailing in NY-11 against Max Rose (D) with 86% in. That would be the first legit surprise House win of the night.

4 replies 26 retweets 113 likes

What is happening TX? I see varying percentages about how much vote has been counted.

Republicans hold WI-06 and OH-12.

This will be a hoot though

Maxine in charge of banking. Possibly the dumbest person in congress.

Piglosi will become the new idol for the Jebots.

Then the Russian stooge, Schiff for brains, in charge of intelligence,

In Fl Ive just been told that they are still “counting votes” in Broward, so before anyone calls this for DeSantis or Scott, just be aware of that.

Greetings. Nice to see familiar folks here. Hope all is well with everyone.

I have no problem with Fox. If I wanted a completely biased joke network supporting my views, I would be a Democrat and turn on MSNBC.

Looks like good night in the Senate, but a bad one in the House.

Foxnews calls Michigan Gov race for the dems

Broward 98% in… didn’t net much.

Broward 98%, Miami 95%… Scott up 60000+

They can say whatever they want at Fox News. That was highly irresponsible and influence-peddling. Millions of voters out West still casting their ballots and Fox News tells them it’s a lost cause? No, folks. Even if they are right, it’s not the point. U.S. Senate is crashing.

— Richard Baris (@Peoples_Pundit) November 7, 2018

Bunch of crooks.

I’ll be honest, the House would be nice to hold, but the Senate, with it’s “advise and consent” power, is far more crucial and powerful, as the FF intended. Especially with at least 1 more SCOTUS seat to come prior to 2020.

since fox called the house, their odds of a dem house dropped from 86% to 80%

NYT calls MN-03 for dems

And still no call in the Heidohoho race.

What a crock.

I mean, shouldn’t it have gone to 100%?

In FL Senate if is pretty funny that CNN still did not fix that Washington county bug. It is obviously wrong. Cannot believe the bad QA on that one.

In TX there are still a lot of small rural counties with no results. Cruz should have this one.

Rose(D) wins NY-11. Luria wins VA-02. +12

Stevens(D) wins MI-11. Davids(D) wins KS-03. Dem Pickups. +10

VA-10

FL-27

PA-05

CO-06

PA-17

FL-26

MN-03

NJ-11

KS-03

MI-11

VA-02

NY-11

Big MAGA goes down.

Allan Smith

?Verified account @akarl_smith

Wow. NBC News projects Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Kris Kobach for Kansas governor

Shock call!

.

foxnews calls Utah Senate race for Romney

Call Florida already

ND just called by FN

Well, in theory all the Dem CA pickups could disappear if somehow the GOP had a great election day vote. Unlikely though. I guess that is where the 538 model is basing this 80% business on

It’s criminal how close OH-SEN has turned out (52-48; wasn’t this supposed to be a blowout?). DeWine has more votes than Brown, people gave up on Renacci too soon.

Why did they call the Ohio Senate race so quick?? The R guy looks like he is back in the game. Would be awesome if James can pull out Michigan.

Quitters a downgrade over Hatch.

I will Hatch.

Quittens will be bad news.

Foxnews call North Dakota Senate for Cramer

Down goes Kobach.

Arizona Senate McSally way up only 2% though.

CNN has McSally up 1.8% with 35% reporting. If this is the early vote, you can call this now.

McSally up 2% in AZ

MN7

MN8

MN1

Republicans are leading all 3 of these currently Democratic held districts.

Senator Romney will be a solid Senator. Tina will only be posting here. Both can be true.

So plus 3 in senate?

Henry Olsen

? @henryolsenEPPC

2m2 minutes ago

it’s only 8% of the precincts, but Hawley is ahead and all of McCaskill’s urban counties have released early results while most of the rural counties have not. I’ll wait, of course, but it’s really hard for me to see how Hawley doesn’t win.

0 replies 8 retweets 10 likes

Big Dem vote dump in WI. Walker now down 5.1% with 41% reporting, but it’s 91% in Milwaukee and 63% in Dane.

+2 so far

If Scott holds Fl;orida and we gain four senate seats along with governorships in FLA , OHIO, and WI, well I would have signed up for that in a heartbeat a month ago

This Fox director that made that call is a freakin’ DEM! What the heck??!?!?!

“there will be surprises every election”

so FAR there have been NO surprises in favor of GOP.

NONE.

oh didn’t realize we were losing WI

DW,

where is your dashboard?

@ 555 GPO. Totally agree

Who would have thought that Fox News would call the House before CNN ?

Faux news is now arguing with fox business about their bs call.

We need to have Fuhrer Mulehead investigate this.

NBC projection has Democrats at 228 (+-12) in the House. That’s a 33 seat pick I believe.

John James is still winning.

ABC calls it for Cruz. FOH, Beto.

John James is down by 10 points with 52% reporting.

Has GA governor been called?

foxnews calls Kansas gov for the dems

Kobach loses in ruby red Kansas.

mnw to blame R voters for the fact the deadenders nominated a candidate that couldn’t win in 3, 2, 1….

But bye Betamale.

Please run against trump in 2020.

Sorry my bad. Looking at old data.

Big Dem vote dump in SE Michigan. Stabenow up by 3

With Fauxs bs call, mia love may lose.

Thank you Murdock bros.

Ohio Gov. Dewine up 250,000 83% in!

Almost half of Wayne reported just now.

maybe we should move to OAN network…..Bill O’Reilly should get a show there.

It seems Florida may have clouded the early look at the night. Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.

Thank goodness for the Senate firewall.

Not a fan of Dewhino.

But I’ll take it,.

Election 2018 exit poll analysis: 47 percent say vulnerable North Dakota senator’s vote against Kavanaugh was a factor

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/election-2018-exit-poll-analysis-56-percent-country/story?id=59006586

doesn’t it have to be big for Tester as well?

Oan is way better than faux,

I bet they bring back mayhem Kelly.

This is such crap! 98% in and Fox hasn’t called Florida for Scott and DeSantis??

McSally is down 1 point. 50% in.

“Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.”

Huh?

The House and CO, KS governorships. Plus, we lose RINOs like Carlos Curbelo and Tom Coffman.

We win FLGOV and expand into the Senate.

Sweet. Not perfect but that is my type of midterm!

Ben McAdams (D) is up 8pts over Mia Love (R) with 58% of the vote in in UT-4

Back from the parties. Don Julio 1942 time!

Illinois House looking rough. The top of the ticket in IL was a real anchor…..

Florida Guy says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:18 pm

“Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.”

– Sorry. Meant governors.

It will be the fourth time since the 1940s? That we get this split.

#577 What data are you looking at? Looks to be a draw House and Senate. Huge wins in FL!!!! I know they haven’t been officially called yet, but it looks like you can bank them.

Suburban Republicans getting kicked in the teeth. Sessions goes down in Texas.

MN2 Jason Lewis has taken small lead.

MN7 & MN8 looked good for GOP.

Interesting results so far in rural Minnesota.

@Robbie. I would argue Gov are a bit better than expected. OH FL WI were all at risk in addition to IA NV KS. It seems we saved OH and FL. WI most likely is a hold too. IA KS and perhaps NV might be loss. But I would take that.

Foxnews calls Texas for Cruz and Abbott!

gameboy says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:20 pm

#577 What data are you looking at? Looks to be a draw House and Senate. Huge wins in FL!!!! I know they haven’t been officially called yet, but it looks like you can bank them.

– NBC shows Democrats at a 228 House projection. That would be a 33 seat gain if they started the night at 195.

When I wrote Senate, I meant governors. Sorry.

skippy are those r or d

AZ will turn around once Mohave starts reporting. Still looking at Maricopa seems to indicate that this will be neck-to-neck. This is not a good sign for NV.

McSally catching up.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/results/senate

Look, it was a tie in Phoenix and Maricopa. Bad news for Sinema!

AP calls Florida for Scott

NRCC is going to need to be much more on their game. They allowed too many retirements based on old conventional wisdom and that further hobbled them. I’m still waiting for the “surprise” that breaks for the GOP that they weren’t expecting.

NBC now has Dems at 229 in the House (+-10). That’s a 34 seat gain.

Wow. Amazing how close OH and WV were. In retrospect we should have invested more there. I thought we would have been blown out by a mile.

Trafalgar polls comes through again on Florida.

The rest of the polling was sheot.

My peeps in FL did their jobs! Told you we’d hold! Just as did my steadfast fellow Floridians Mr. Vito, Marv, Hugh, FL Guy. Sorry for those I left off.

We face Hurricanes all the time, no f’ng blue wave is gonna scare us!!!

601–Isn’t that “failure of vision” of the NRSC head? who is that? Gardner of Colorado? We need better.

Scott is a machine.

Skeletor,loses.

Jachind:

What is your purpose? It appears to me that you are able to find any little bit of what could be bad news and then present it as the end of the world. This is all you have done for days.

I dont get it. It is one thing to post bad news for the GOP that is REAL but you post molehills and make them into mountains while ignoring every hill you climb in between.

You guys were right about FL. I was convinced we banked a bunch of EV vote so when the EV came in I was convinced that the Indy vote tilted Dem

If Mia Love loses in her scarlet red state, it is Fox News’ fault?

607 – jaichind, no worries. My crazy Senate prediction is now up in flames. It happens. I think indies did tilt Dem. The GOP showed up just awesome. Turnout was great but Dems showed up as well.

fox is awful…..just talking to each other

Foxnews calls New Hampshire Gov. for Sununu

@ Albert Hodges 606. Not sure that is fair. Sure some of my thoughts might have been too pessimistic but on the flip side some of them were correct. I was convinced that the Dems will take the House based on some early results and that ended being correct. I was totally wrong about FL on the other hand.

A 40 seat loss in the House is not out of the question. A slaughter.

We are up again in AZ Senate. Excellent.

Ar Britt Hume and the canned ham still hacking on faux news?

Dems picked up 3 seats in PA but Rs are leading narrowly in the other 3 remaining races. Might avert a disaster.

Nate Silver, What the hell? Gave me a god damn heart attack saying the ReTHUGs was keeping the House. Fix your $hit.

This is a Blue Wave yall. Looks like we win the popular vote by 9-10 points. Hell yeah. Feel the Wave!

#RESIST!!

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:05 pm

Down goes Kobach.

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:11 pm

NBC projection has Democrats at 228 (+-12) in the House. That’s a 33 seat pick I believe.

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:17 pm

It seems Florida may have clouded the early look at the night. Right now, it’s looking like a really bad night in the House and probably the Senate as well.

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:21 pm

Suburban Republicans getting kicked in the teeth. Sessions goes down in Texas.

=========================

This is Robbie the “Republican”. This is why no one can stand you and why everyone knows that you are just a Dem troll. Can’t say anything good. Probably a +4 pick up in the Senate, with a great unexpected win in FL. Probably holding on to “lost” governorships in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But just comes here to post negativity.

Ugh. Come on Wisconsin!

David Freddoso

?Verified account @freddoso

6s7 seconds ago

Meanwhile, Scott Walker is down 30k votes with 57% in. #WIGOV

More..

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm

A 40 seat loss in the House is not out of the question. A slaughter.

Meanwhile…

Bob Stefanowski holding strong in Connecticut. Another surprise governor pick up?

In the US Senate, we will pick up 4 seats.

In NC, we are not losing any GOP Congressional seats.

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:35 pm

This is Robbie the “Republican”. This is why no one can stand you and why everyone knows that you are just a Dem troll. Can’t say anything good. Probably a +4 pick up in the Senate, with a great unexpected win in FL. Probably holding on to “lost” governorships in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But just comes here to post negativity.

– Ahh, poor baby. Go f$ck yourself.

If you can’t handle bad news, that’s your problem. Not mine.

And by the way, when I wrote thank goodness for the Senate firewall, that was a positive because it’s keeping a bad night from being an awful night.

I still think Walker will take this. He is losing a lot of ground relative to 2014 in Dane and Milwaukee. But they are mostly in. Rest of the state he seems to be keeping his 2014 margins and should get him to victory.

if dems win the house, I want them to try to impeach Trump and go all out.

Looks like we win the popular vote by 9-10 points.”

Another moral victory huh?

what happened to your GA governor?

“GA is not Alabama” I think the post was.

What happened in FL? IN? MO? ND? AZ? OH governor?

We are going to fill the courts with conservatives, enjoy that!

How is your socialist paradise in Venezuela doing?

So now Scott is up 1.8% in FL? Amazing.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 15,000

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:36 pm

More..

Robbie says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:34 pm

A 40 seat loss in the House is not out of the question. A slaughter.

– You know, crybaby. Someone here started suggesting in October 2017 a 40 seat House loss was possible based on Trump’s approval rating, retirements, and Independents moving towards Democrats.

I’m sorry you’re having a hard time accepting the bad news. Maybe not pay attention to Rasmussen or other farcical sources next time.

Ducey wins re election.

Future Senator?

If you can’t handle bad news, that’s your problem. Not mine.

================================

Not that I can’t handle bad news, it’s that a jacka$$ who proclaims to be a Republicans can do nothing but post bad news. You could choose to post the good news every once in a while, but since you are a Democrat, you post way more bad news than good.

Stabenow up by 7 points now. Oh well. Run again in 2020, James!

no talk about Georgia governor or Missouri senate.

Rosendale getting crushed.

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 10,000

Hmmmmmmmmm. I wonder why?

“no talk about Georgia governor or Missouri senate”

Yall happy losing the popular vote by 9-10 points? LOL. Nice, in 2020 that margin gets us 350 electoral votes!

#RESIST!

I would expect a true Republican to take some joy in knocking out a strong incumbent in purple Florida against a lot of odds, but you seem to only revel in Republican defeats, so I can only assume that you are a Democrat.

GOP surprise of the night……Scott & DeSantis winning the doubleheader in Florida.

Is this Robbie guy a Russian troll or something?

Tina says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:42 pm

Ducey wins re election.

Future Senator?

I would think so- Kyl seat that he was appointed to has an election in 2020 to serve until 2022. Then it is up again in 2022 right as Ducey term is up

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 9,000

.

Every time a post it goes down! lol

I think most of us can handle bad news, Robbie. Problem is that’s ALL you talk about. EVER

Give it a rest man just once in your life.

Yup, let them go full steam ahead on impeachment.

Run on the Muh Russian hoax.

5000

Do not feed the troll- when will anyone learn

MIKE DEWINE WINS OHIO!

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 5,000

.

Every time I post it goes down! lol

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:44 pm

I would expect a true Republican to take some joy in knocking out a strong incumbent in purple Florida against a lot of odds, but you seem to only revel in Republican defeats, so I can only assume that you are a Democrat.

– I do take joy in adding to the Senate and I predicted a gain.

But the slaughter in the House is terrible. Trump turned suburbia away from Republicans. That’s something Democrats could never do.

622 Albert

That 4-seat Senate gain is contingent on holding AZ (probable), & NV (unknown).

It looks like MT SEN won’t be close.

EML,

You have luckily NOT been around that much, so you are only getting a small dose of Robbie’s pessimism.

He is disgusting.

I did not want to lose the House, but with the Senate seats and some Governorships in line, not a terrible night all around.

GPO says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

Do not feed the troll- when will anyone learn

– No. I enjoy smacking you Trump dummies around.

645 GPO

Maybe when Christ returns… if then.

I never had that much hope of holding the House but hoped to keep it close so we can flip it back. That stills seems possible but will need us to retake the lead on several 50-50 seats.

do we want Clarence Thomas to retire in June?

“But the slaughter in the House is terrible. Trump turned suburbia away from Republicans. That’s something Democrats could never do.”

-Emotions will go up and down.

That is why the House was designed like it was, with 2 year terms, and why the Senate was given a 6 year term.

Short-term pain for gains in the long-term.

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 4,000

.

Every time I post it goes down! lol

Wow. MO Senate race is a blowout just like IN.

Actually the numbers in Montana by county look a little better than they were in 2016 when Bullock won by 3.8%.

NYCmike says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:47 pm

EML,

You have luckily NOT been around that much, so you are only getting a small dose of Robbie’s pessimism.

He is disgusting.

I did not want to lose the House, but with the Senate seats and some Governorships in line, not a terrible night all around.

– Wrong. What was disgusting was your willful ignorance of how bad things were going for Republicans in the House. You ignored reality because you didn’t want to hear bad news.

The signs were always there for the House. You chose to look away. I didn’t. I didn’t look away from the Senate when I predicted gains either.

As long as you cloister yourself in rightwing media, you’re going to continue to miss the boat.

Renacci came close, I guess we should have invested more in him.

But they still cannot call the mo race?

Weird pattern here.

“do we want Clarence Thomas to retire in June?”

-Good question.

If McSally and Heller come thru, it might be time, unless he wants to stay there for at least 7 more years, just in case the White House is lost in 2020.

MichiganGuy calls Missouri Senate for Hawley!

and kemp is up 10% on Abrams with 83% in…..but no call.

Amoral Scumbag has the moral compass of a floating turd.

Remember that when you right any MSM garbage he writes here.

He is upset there was no blue wave poor bastard.

Walker down 0.1%

mnw says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

645 GPO

Maybe when Christ returns… if then

I don’t understand the regulars here that think they can reason or have a discussion with him when he is obviously trolling them

In 2010, Rs picked up 6 Senate seats (but not enough to gain a majority), while gaining the House. This year, the Ds are losing Senate seats, while gaining the House.

2010 was a big year for our side, but the Ds kept the Senate (albeit by a smaller majority), and President Obama was still able to get his nominations approved.

This year is shaping up as a split decision. The Ds have some positive results (most especially in gaining a majority in the House, but also in gains at the state level), but the Rs have some positive results as well (most especially adding to their majority in the Senate).

If nothing else, Trump will be able to govern during his third and fourth year the way Obama did.

Now, let’s call Missouri and let’s see what happens in Arizona and Nevada, and all the House seats still in play. The size of a majority matters.

Missouri is going to be close. If you compare to 2012 she still has about a 250K net margin out there, but…there are still some ruby red counties to report.

With that said, things are looking good in MO

AZ SEN

The Green is getting 2.7%. McSally is leading by .7%, per FOX. (I can’t get to NYT; paywall.)

Even tho the Green endorsed Sinema, it appears the Green may still cost Sinema the election… assuming McSally hangs on.

Can we get the aclu troll to retire first?

BayernFan says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

do we want Clarence Thomas to retire in June

Yes as much as he is one of my idols, gain 20 some odd years

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker only down 650

.

Every time I post it goes down! lol

Fox News analysts are terrible slow rollers at stringing out results

jason says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:53 pm

Amoral Scumbag has the moral compass of a floating turd.

Remember that when you right any MSM garbage he writes here.

He is upset there was no blue wave poor bastard.

– No wave? have you been paying attention to the House, dummy? It’s a slaughter.

Wasn’t Reynolds a favorite?

Nathaniel Rakich

? @baseballot

54s55 seconds ago

And Fred Hubbell is crushing GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds 53–45%. #IAgov

23% of vote in Macomb and Stabenow is a hair ahead. Doesn’t look good for James.

If Rs hang on to PA 1, 10 and 16, where they are ahead they pick up 1 and lose 4 for a net loss of 3.

Better than most of us expected out of the Dem gerrymander.

BOOM!

.

Make that…

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker up 800+!

Robbie is responsible for losing the House? Damn. Who knew he was that powerful?

Robbie,

Emotions run hot. You will blow a gasket every once in a while.

Cooler heads will prevail. Divided government for 2 years. Founding Fathers wisdom wins again.

There’s a good chance McSally is going to win. That’s great.

Walker is slowly climbing his way up. I have no idea about what counties remain that might give him a boost. But, the man has defied the odds in the past, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Hawley seems to be on his way to a Senate seat, as is DeWine who is looking at the governorship of OH. James has done well in MI, and is only down by 7. I still think he’s an awesome candidate — win or lose.

I’ve found tonight’s running commentary very helpful — all except for Robbie, who seems to put a cloud over the blog.

Bitterlaw says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

Robbie is responsible for losing the House? Damn. Who knew he was that powerful?

who said that?

Walker is up in WI and will only build his lead from here.

Fox News analysts prolly think that Mute 43 is still Presidenr.

Of course, Fox News calls the race for DeSantis just prior to Gillum conceding. Whatever.

Foxnews calls Florida Gov. race to DeSantis

Let’s Go!

Jon Ralston

? @RalstonReports

25m25 minutes ago

Our @meganmesserly and @RileySnyder just extracted data from Nye showing 22,000 Rs and 10,000 Ds turned out. That’s a good result for GOP. Keep an eye on those numbers from Lyon, Elko and Douglas, too.

4 replies 8 retweets 21 likes

gillum concedes

No wave? have you been paying attention to the House, dummy? It’s a slaughter.”

The wave disappeared completely when the Dems lost FL Senate and Gov races.

Let’s see if what they end up with in the house.

30 seats or less and its a yawnnnnnn…..

Meanwhile the Senate looks great so GFY.

Fox finally calls Florida for Desantis.

Gillum concedes to Desantis in FL gov.

Gillum concedes

“who said that?”

-In Bitterlaw’s mind, there are a lot of voices.

They got their early 2000 graphics in place.

Relics like Hume and canned hamp, plus Williams.

Prolly think we just launched the Iraqi invasion.

Let’s go Walker!!

WV

U.S. Senate

97% in

50% Manchin

46% Morrisey

04% the other guy who ran (Libertarian)

*****************************************

THANKS, LIBERARIANS!

It turned out just splendidly for ya!

__________________________________________

(To ber fair, many of the people who voted for the Libertarian ere left wing Ds who hated Manchin on his yes vote on Kavanaugh.)

Bitterlaw says:

November 6, 2018 at 10:58 pm

Robbie is responsible for losing the House? Damn. Who knew he was that powerful?

– Someone has finally figured out my powers.

Gillum was giving his concession speech and NBC had Too close to call on the race in the side bar. LMAO

669 VictrC

RE: MO SEN

Not so sure it will be close. I can’t access NYT (paywall), but looking at the counties that are still out (per FOX & CNN), those counties will be brutal for Sky Queen.

(The small county near Jeff City where I vote went 74-26 for Hawley, btw.)

Ok, will Gillum be indicted tomorrow by Fib?

Paging Wrong Wray…

“– No wave? have you been paying attention to the House, dummy? It’s a slaughter.”

One-sided.

How does this work: have you been paying attention to the Senate, dummy? It’s a slaughter.

2010 was a wave. This is a mixed decision. Congratulations on taking the House (and your gains at the state level). This stuff is for real. But, if you won’t recognize that our side is doing well in the Senate, then it doesn’t matter what you say. You’re just revealing something about yourself.

Renacci down by 4%, as well as Manchin…..Lot closer than anyone said.

Tester is something else in Montana.

I’ve been busy and haven’t had time to follow the results. Did Scott win or lose?

Wes

Won.

Boom!

Henry Olsen

? @henryolsenEPPC

I’ve seen enough in MO. Hawley is ahead by 137,000 and there still lots of rural counties to report. Still lots of votes out in St. Louis County and a few in the city, but not enough to overcome this lead. I call it for Hawley – that’s +4 for the GOP tonight.

Watching the last 3 PA races, all looking good for Rs.

Fitzpatrick holding on in PA 01, Perry in my district PA 10, and Kelly in PA 16. Perry and Kelly are locks, over 90% in, and Fitzpatrick has a 9k lead with 80% in.

Bitter, Kim did not make it but she got 100k votes.

NBC has the Democrats with a projected House pickup of 35 seats. Sorry, that’s a wave. Trump turned the suburbs blue.

This is worse for the Jebots.

Piglosi or whomever is .house speaker will not get anything done because of the .senate.

She does not have bush 43 in office, weakened by the Iraq folly, years of stalemate in Afghansistan, an economy cratering.

She intimidated bushie Woosie, but she will not intimidate trump.

Big lines still in CA, despite the polls having officially closed. Some say the long lines might extend voting for hours — Orange County, is one area being named in this unusual voter spike.

We have some controversial propositions on the ballot which may be causing more interest than normal — prop 10, a state-wide rent control bill (ugh), and prop 6, calling for the repeal of our gas tax. Then there is Gavin Newsom, ready to take the reins of governor, which will prepare him to run for president. What a con man he is!

And now Fox calls it for Hawley. Bye, bye Claire!

Huge wins in Ohio & Florida for Gov….will have major implications for Trumps efforts in 2020. Explains why he spent time in those two states the last couple of days. Probably dragged DeSantis to victory.

Foxnews calls Missouri Senate for Hawley

GOP now +3 in the Senate

Mia Love losing in Utah.

I’m glad I was wrong about that, Mnw.

I see the House went Dem.

I expected a good night for them but not this with the way the Senate trended.

What can I say? I was wrong.

Unlike MD, I’m not going to skulk away and become a Kossite.

Plus 4 in the senate.

That deserves a boom.

Not too many split decisions.

Democrats flipped MN2 & MN3

Republicans flipped MN8 and looks like they will flip MN1

Walker still up in WI??

Hawley wins MO

No official call for Scott, but it’s over. He is up 57k and not enough votes left.

And we get Maxine to head banking.

What is an interest rate?

What is a cd.

What is the stock market.

You cannot be as dumb as her,

Waingro, Walker down 11,000 with 70% in

I hate the idea that we MIGHT lose the House, but

1) Mrs. Clinton is still not president;

2)Corker, Flakey and McStain all out of the Senate; and

3) we beat those faux-moderates McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly and Nelson!

If we hold Walker, now that we saved Ohio and Florida, I am going to bed happy.

Decision Desk calls it for Scott. Put it on the board!

NYC – Robbie is being blasted for pointing out that if the GOP loses 40 House seats that would a terrible result. Well, it would be a terrible result.

I do agree that Robbie only posts bad news.

And oh by the way, the Republican is still up by 6.8% in the Connecticut governors race. Connecticut is ALL suburbia but somehow suburbanites won’t vote Republican, per Wobbles.

So, who resigned from the cabinet tomorrow?

Mathis?

Jeffrey Sesssions.

I think trump is going to release Fisa.

Donnelly…TOAST!

FORK HIM!

______________

Beresden….TOAST!

FORK HIM!

___________________

Gillum concedes!…TOAST!

FORK HIM!

__________________________

McKaskill going down…TOAST!

FORK HER!

_________________________________

Nelson behind….TOAST!

FORK HIM!

_______________________________________

Beto (Bailey) goes DOWN in TX….TEXAS TOAST!

FORK HIM!

____________________________________________

Heitkamp goes DOWN….TOAST!

FORK HER!

_________________________________________________

BLUE WAVE!!!!!!!!?

N.O.T

#724, ugh. Just give me Walker and one of AZ and NV, and I’m officially VERY happy with tonight. Come on Wisconsin.

So far I’m happy with tonight’s wins in the Senate and governorships (especially FL). I always felt the House would be a heavy lift, although, thought there would be fewer loses than there have been so far. Maybe CA will have more favorable results.

721 Scooter

MO SEN

I was about to say, from looking at the MO map, it’s simply mathematically impossible for McCaskill to make up the deficit.

Bitterlaw says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:11 pm

NYC – Robbie is being blasted for pointing out that if the GOP loses 40 House seats that would a terrible result. Well, it would be a terrible result.

I do agree that Robbie only posts bad news.

– In the Trump era, it’s been mostly bad news.

Get rid of Trump and the good news will pour forth.

Wallace on Fox: “Giving too much credit to Trump for holding the Senate.”

Listening to Fox News is like reading Pravda back in the USSR.

First, this is an admission that Trump gets SOME credit for “holding the Senate.” He’s only qualifying how much credit Trump should get (as though there is a way to calibrate such a thing).

Second, it is a denial that the Republicans are gaining seats in the Senate, and reveals the man’s prejudice. “I don’t want any reports we’re holding our ground.” Gen. Patton

Third, let’s compare Obama and Trump in their first midterm: both lost the House, and Obama lost 6 Senate seats while the Republicans look to gain 3 or maybe 4 Senate seats. There are problems in saying this, as there were different starting points and so forth. But, in this life, you can only play the hand you’re dealt.

I cannot disagree with 1,2 or 3

Flakey and mullah corker were terrible senators.

……gee, that Supreme Court battle did wonders for Dem Senate incumbents, huh?

Republicans lost a House seat in Oklahoma. Think about that.

In GA governor, Kemp is ahead over Oprah’s BFF Stacy Abrhams…

Anybody want to FORK her yet?

Too soon?

Mr. Hellbelly returns!

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:11 pm

And oh by the way, the Republican is still up by 6.8% in the Connecticut governors race. Connecticut is ALL suburbia but somehow suburbanites won’t vote Republican, per Wobbles.

Northeast voters will vote Republicans for Governor but rarely senator. Don’t feel like looking it up, but I think NH, Vermont,Mass and if Conn holds will all have R govs

731 WG

I want BOTH AZ & NV! If the GOP holds those, I would consider that a pretty good night overall.

The DEMs will overplay their hand with their small House majority*, & it should be possible to re-take the House with a Presidential year turnout.

*impeachment; Nadler has promised to re-open the Kavanaugh sex investigation, etc.

Mr. Bitterlaw…..every two years, like clockwork….I refuse to watch t.v., so I come here for results.

Bitterlaw,

As intended, the House is where the citizens get to show their emotional side.

The Senate, where judges are confirmed, allow the states to show the wisdom of a longer-term outlook.

For Robbie, and his 40-seat hope, GREAT for him, short-term pain for the country.

It will balance out, as I expect the Dems to overreach.

Darts in house wants trump to release his tax return.

Lol, they just cannot help themselves.

All PA races called… R – 3.

Best we could hope for.

Republicans lost a House seat in Oklahoma. Think about that.

==============================

Republicans also lost a House seat in Oklahoma in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2010, thanks to a Bush.

It will be Muh taxes, Muh Russian, and Muh impeachment by the Drats in the house.

47% reporting in Connecticut and the Republican has expanded his lead to 7.4%.

“I do agree that Robbie only posts bad news.”Bitter —-> spot on!

With 2% in CA, Cox is leading the governor’s race. Looks so nice to see, even though it will only be transitory.

Other governor races that look positive are Noem in SD, and even Stefanowski in Connecticut.

NYCmike says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:19 pm

Bitterlaw,

As intended, the House is where the citizens get to show their emotional side.

The Senate, where judges are confirmed, allow the states to show the wisdom of a longer-term outlook.

For Robbie, and his 40-seat hope, GREAT for him, short-term pain for the country.

It will balance out, as I expect the Dems to overreach.

– You get dumber by the day. When I said a 40 seat loss was possible a year ago. You said I was crazy. Now that it might, happen you think I was rooting for it. get lost.

You’re always wrong because you refuse to accept reality and, in this forum, you’re not alone.

How many here were predicting Republicans would keep the House? Plenty. You were wrong because you didn’t want to accept reality.

GOP also holding on to the last 2 races to be called in NC. If they do, no changes.

go for it

Stunning loss in Oklahoma. Kendra Horn beats Steve Russell in OK-5. I’m floored. Russell was up substantially.

Well fellow posters I have come on to say I have egg on half my face. It grieves me to admit it but Robbie was closer than me concerning the House. Robbie I will take it like a man. However, I think I will end pretty close with the Senate. I predicted 6. It could well be five.

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:21 pm

Republicans lost a House seat in Oklahoma. Think about that.

==============================

Republicans also lost a House seat in Oklahoma in 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008, and 2010, thanks to a Bush.

– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.

HI Janz, cox was a no brainier.

I could not vote for the Drats in the senate though.

Stabenow wins. Can’t disagree with the call. She’s winning Macomb. Trump won with 58% there.

Title from NBC News Website

“Democrats’ hopes for a tidal wave to rebuke President Donald Trump have been tempered.”

ABC, MSNBC, NBC, CNN not talking about any wave. Just saying Dems take House. If it was truly a wave, they’d be BLASTING it all over the place.

Get a grip. Many GOP retirements in a mid-term cycle where many of those lost seats will become competitive again in 2 years.

R wins mn 8

A flip.

– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.

==============================

Well, that wasn’t me. I posted earlier today that there was a lot of unfounded optimism here. The difference is, I post the good with the bad. You only ever, constantly, insistently, post the bad. Which is why you are a Dem troll.

Robbie,

You have me with a gun to my head. You are the saddest little girl I’ve ever seen. You’re the epitome of a snowflake, worry-wart Republican. Grow up, dry your eyes and grow a pair. I had to live with the losers that the GOP lined up over the last 20 years, you can live with Trump for 6 more years. You disgust me.

As in 1970, Nixon’s first midterm, the GOP lost seats in the house but gained senate seats.

split decision

(Pete Stauber)

It is time to call Florida for Scot.

GOP is winning in KS-2 and NM-2 by a little with not too much left.

Not a disaster, it’s a midterm where he in power party made good gains in the senate. A lot harder to flip the senate than the house. We will be back in two years.

GOP now ahead in IA gov race

Handel is holding right now in GA, but the guy next door is having trouble.

I think Walker pulls it out.

Big Dem counties are ahead of the count. Milwaukee almost all in.

Steve King might lose in Iowa. That would be great. No need for a white nationalist in the Republican party.

When will they start to report NV results ?

Sorry everyone. Someone had to say it.

I’m sure you can substitute several others in Robby’s place.

Looks like Walker wins.

#757 Tina, I’m with you on the Senate — left it blank!

Scott Walker now back to being down by 6K votes (0.3%). Can’t help but feel he still has some magic left.

phoenix — where are you getting your stats on Walker?

EML says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:26 pm

– I was told by the Trumpaloos the House would be close or stay with Republicans. When you lose a ruby red district, something bad has happened. Stop making excuses.

==============================

Well, that wasn’t me. I posted earlier today that there was a lot of unfounded optimism here. The difference is, I post the good with the bad. You only ever, constantly, insistently, post the bad. Which is why you are a Dem troll.

– Give it rest, you phony. I’ve been here since 2004. I hate this is happening to the House and it wouldn’t have happened with any other Republican, but we’ve got a moron in the White House who is doing serious damage to party with key demographics.

I saw this coming. That doesn’t mean I was rooting for it. It means I didn’t let the red glasses color my view.

AZ SEN returns are awfully slow. McSally + 12 or 13000 with 59% in, per FOX & CNN.

I’m trying to stay awake until I know the result in AZ & NV.

per Robbie: Ds won a House seat in Oklahoma. Therefore Ds won this midterm.

Usually we look at the totality of results. But, not Robbie. He waits until after the election, and picks a marker that enables him to continue to live in a reality of his choosing.

How about Rs kept their strangehold (4 out of 6) on New England Governors?

That should scare Ds as much as a Democrat winning a House seat in Oklahoma scares Rs.

janz, politico

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

NV is delayed.

There were still long lines of voters in Clark and Washoe at time of poll closing,

Republicans will also flip MN1 to go along with flipping MN8

21% of Dane still outstanding. Milwaukee is in. Still rural vote outstanding for Walker.

NYC – While I do not believe in depression, I am not happy about the results in the House. However, it looks like Robbie was right. Don’t have to like it but have to acknowledge it.

Redmen4ever says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:34 pm

per Robbie: Ds won a House seat in Oklahoma. Therefore Ds won this midterm.

Usually we look at the totality of results. But, not Robbie. He waits until after the election, and picks a marker that enables him to continue to live in a reality of his choosing.

– Wrong, dummy. I said this is a wave in the House. I didn’t say Democrats have won the overall election. Try harder.

And let’s see what the final totals are in the House, the Senate, the governor’s mansions, and the state legislatures before we decide who won because it may be the Senate is the only bright spot in totality.

I hate this is happening to the House and it wouldn’t have happened with any other Republican

================================

Oh, except when Democrats had 263 in the House and a supermajority in the Senate because of Bush. But you had nothing to say about that and didn’t realize the disaster of supporting JEB in the primary.

A lot of vote around Green Bay yet to report.

One thing I knew for sure tonight is no matter how badly the races went, the Trumpsters would refuse to say any part of the election was bad.

“Milwaukee is in.”

Will Milwaukee be dumping their absentee ballots after the election again?

No R losses in CDs in WI….they were worried about 2 of the Rs….

When someone calls every election for one party he’s bound to be right eventually, Bitter.

By the way, how about Air Claire?

Morrisey only lost by 20k votes… bummer.

so why did GOP lose seats in House but gain them in Senate? Why did Dem incumbents lose?

rd Baris

@Peoples_Pundit

7m

Florida Republicans. Take a bow. That was a beautiful display of a base defending their president & party vs. history, media, polls, etc. Truly remarkable & I’m fully impressed. Media will ignore you and talk about Donald Trump. But we saw it over here. We saw what you did today.

View details ·

Way to go,

Wes

Air Claire won’t be flying the MO skies after tonight. She’s history.

meanwhile, in the Georgia governor contest………?

Amoral Scumbag was wrong with most of his predictions… again.

These results are not going to get rid of Trump.

If anything, he is now in a stronger position for 2020.

There isn’t going to be any Nikki Haley.

Wes- I said I would not believe she lost until she lost. She lost. Good.

BF

All Kemp.

Truly a wasted opportunity to take out Sherrod Brown in Ohio by the GOP. If they had fielded a candidate like John James in Michigan, they would have flipped that seat. John James, go move to Ohio LOL!!!

Kyle Morris

@RealKyleMorris

Follow

BREAKING: Republican Josh Hawley defeats Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri Senate race. #MOsen pic.twitter.com/TEIYLc4aE8

8:36 PM – 6 Nov 2018

I bet Amoral Scumbag will refuse to give credit to Trump for all the senate wins.

The House was bad.

Happy, Robbie?

About what I thought – I had it at 33 seats.

Just have to say it…Indiana is still at 90% reported, 6 hours later.

#795 Tina

You’re welcome.

WISC.

Walker behind by 4,000…

********************************

Walker losing the 3 NW upper tier counties (Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland) by total of @ 7,000…

I waited 12 years to finally get rid of her. I did a lot of volunteer work for Jim Talent.

AZ is too damn close, btw.

Kemp is up over 200k votes with 95% in and they haven’t called it?

BTW, hell of a job by the Florida GOP. Kudos.

Truly a wasted opportunity to take out Sherrod Brown in Ohio by the GOP. If they had fielded a candidate like John James in Michigan, they would have flipped that seat. John James, go move to Ohio LOL!!!

==========================

I don’t understand how you vote for Sherrod Brown AND Mike Dewine.

MCCASKILL…TOAST!!!!!

mnw ..

but no one calls it, imagine that.

The Skeletor is not conceding in fl senate.

TTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAASSSSSSSSSTTTTTTT

Take a bow, mnw, getting rid of Skyqueen is an accomplishment. What a horrible woman, I know you can’t say nasty.

jason says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:42 pm

Amoral Scumbag was wrong with most of his predictions… again.

These results are not going to get rid of Trump.

If anything, he is now in a stronger position for 2020.

There isn’t going to be any Nikki Haley

– Oh really?

I had a 30-40 seat loss in the House. That looks on target.

I had Democrats gaining 8-11 governor’s mansions. That seems a good bet.

I had Republicans gaining 0-2 Senate seats. I expected to lose AZ and NV. We’ll see how that turns out.

I had Republicans losing 250 state legislative seats. We’ll know that number in the days to come.

Unlike you, I did darn well. At least I didn’t say it was 1970 like someone else.

“One thing I knew for sure tonight is no matter how badly the races went, the Trumpsters would refuse to say any part of the election was bad.”

-Bitterlaw,

This right here shows you why Robbie is a troll. EVERYONE here knows that the loss of the House is not a GOOD thing.

BUT, as I have written already, the House is voted on every 2 years FOR A REASON. It is the chamber where the people will express their emotions, which are fleeting. Call me in 2 years time and let’s run this 435 race contest again.

It is a consistent pattern. Every race.

No quick call for the R.

They did the same sheot in ga in 2016.

The guy looks like a mummy, Tina.

“– Wrong, dummy. I said this is a wave in the House. I didn’t say Democrats have won the overall election. Try harder.”

If you are as smart as you think you are, not a dummy as you call everybody else, you would be able to get Wikipedia to change the definition of “wave election.” While saying there is no precise definition, they define past wave elections as:

“one party gained twenty or more seats in the House, picked up at least one seat in the Senate, and did not lose a Presidential election.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_elections_in_the_United_States

You should contact them and get them to change the definition of wave election to be when a Democrat wins a House seat in Oklahoma.

wanna cookie, Robbie?

Phil says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:44 pm

The House was bad.

Happy, Robbie?

About what I thought – I had it at 33 seats.

– Of course not. But I took a lot of slings and arrows for a year for suggesting this was possible in the House. Just because I thought it was possible didn’t mean I was rooting for it.

792. Wes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. He’s like listening to my neighbors chihuahua.

Hawley is impressive. Rick Scott giving his victory speech?

Ohio Senate candidate Renacci was a terrible candidate. Did he even try to win this race?

He was probably trying to get it to .5 for a recount, Phil.

Skeletor is hideous.

Bill Nelson in sore loser mode.

BayernFan says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:48 pm

wanna cookie, Robbie?

– No, but I sure am sick of being attacked for not being a wild eyed optimist when the data clearly suggests otherwise.

Some people here, not you, have a hard time separating a prediction with a desire.

Walker down by 12k but Evers is running out of votes.

Every candidate I donated to lost, except Hawley– but, Hawley was about 85% of the total.

Don’t know about Tarkanian yet. TBA.

Nelson is not conceeding.

Wants a look at the votes in Broward.

795. Tina. Took it upthread. Very proud of my state tonight!

ReadyFirst says:

November 6, 2018 at 11:49 pm

792. Wes, even a broken clock is right twice a day. He’s like listening to my neighbors chihuahua.

– Oh, I see. I was right just by accident. But when you and the rest here are wrong, it’s just a well meaning mistake. Got it. I guess when I was right in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014, it was just by accident as well.

You all refused to see what the data in the House showed. Trump was a lead weight in the suburbs.

NYC – Why are you lecturing me on the House? I know it is up every 2 years. I think Trump helped in the Senate and hurt in the House. Both can be true.

Pete King up just 500 in NY.

RF

That’s only fair that you should.

The nets say there’s 2% still out in FL. That would be over twice Scott’s margin at present, but… not very likely!

King is up 13,000!

831. mnw. But ya gotta be sooooo happy with that Hawley win! Sounded from your past posts that mccaskill was a huge monkey on your back.

You know I have to ask this, Bitter:

Do you still want to own a beach house in a state that just re-elected a corrupt child molester?

Bitterlaw,

Who is lecturing you?

Losing the House sucks…..we shall do it again in 2 years.

Limbaugh didn’t do his best to help McCaskill win this time.

Fox calls FL.

Scott wins Fl

Fox Call

*FL Senate.

839 RF

Yes. You got that right!

I had a bad moment yesterday. I talked to a really close friend who is a former GOP County Chairwoman in western MO. To my shock, she told me she thought McCaskill would win. She’s 77, & I don’t know how plugged in she is politically any more.

Of course, Wes. Completely irrelevant to my decision. Ocean City is the closest and nicest beach from my house. If you interpret this as some form of endorsing mo,eating children, please come to my house and say it to my face. You know where I live from FB.

Any more pregnant women beaten because of you?k

Marv!!! Nice job!

846. mnw. I know that feeling. I’m happy it worked out for you!

Walker takes lead in WI

Walker takes the lead. Calling the race for Walker. This is over.

NV & AZ could either make this a pretty good night… or a mediocre one.

I’m kind of upbeat because the “courageous bipartisan statesmen who put country above party” (McCain; Murkowski; Flake) don’t have the capacity to singlehandedly destroy the next SCOTUS nominee. That’s golden.

I believe that if Kav lost, the GOP would not have cleaned out those 4 redstate spotted owls tonight.

Woa. MT still in play?

“Tester is in trouble. I’d say he wins, but @LPDonovan and I were not crazy. It should be close.”

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1060035111129890816?s=21

Per CNN, 99% reporting in Iowa and Gov. Kim Reynolds up by 2.2% and gets the check.

I never claimed you endorsed child molestation, Bitter. We can go toe to toe if you’re ever man enough to come down to NC and accuse me of pining for slavery to my face though.

As for my question, every time Menendez is in the news I have to needle you about New Jersey because of you virulent anti-Southern bigotry while expressing an interest in the single sleaziest state in this country.

WISC–Gov.

Walker has now edged ahead….

Just got back and looked at the latest results.

A couple of days ago predicted that both sides would likely be able to claim victory, and they can in this split decision.

The Democrats can claim victory for winning the House. I had predicted they could pull as many as 30 seats, and it appears to be higher (some are predicting 35)

The Republicans can claim victory in the Senate races. Four seats (depending on the Arizona and Nevada outcomes) is more than I expected (2-3 seats)

Also the Republicans are doing very well in the governors races –Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin is close. Some people were claiming they could lose eight state houses.

No wave on other side. Its more of a draw.

Another vote that makes me a happy camper is in Colorado, an anti-fracking initiative is going down 57.5% to 42.4%. Some polls had shown it with a small lead. This may disappoint lisab.

Two years from now Trump and all the congressional seats will be up for election. Will be interesting to watch.

Beto has to be high on Mushrooms during his concession speech…

#848 ReadyFirst

Thank you……nice job yourself.

Now let’s win WI Gov, AZ and NV Senate seats and call it a win for the day.

Put on CSPAN- Wtf is wrong with Beto?

In the meantime, “I warned you soulless degenerates…”

Yikes.

AZ keeps tightening– with 60% in, McSally’s lead is down to 4500– decimal dust.

Again, the paywall blocks me at NYT, but… that’s what FOX has.

Kristi wins in SD.

Awesome, Reynolds re-elected in Iowa

Beto is now dropping f-bombs with impunity during his concession speech.

This will go viral.

What is going on in Nevada? 0.0% in? Even California has 27% in. Geez

I think Trump helped in the Senate and hurt in the House. Both can be true.

Agree with Bitter.

Have to agree with the pundits. Suburban voters a problem for the GOP.

LOL, right after I post that Foxnews said, there are still people voting so, they can’t release any #’s

It seems I keep my NC winning streak intact as Harris is up by about .8 with 99% in.

Wes, I should have stuck with my rational prediction LOL!!

I can’t tell if Beto is trying to imitate Bobby Kennedy or Iggy Pop.

He looks positively unwell.

Steve Kng wins in Iowa.

Lots to be learned from this election for 2020

US equity futures surges on prospect of divided government.

Marv, that’s a big Army HOOAH!!!

Kill me now.

“Santorum says on CNN that he expects Trump to take advantage of Dem house to pass infrastructure and raise the minwage.”

McCaskill is free to become one of the crazy Democrats.

I would have, Phoenix. I seem to have been a race off thus far since I predicted Scott would lose.

Interestingly Bill Nelson is the only member of the Dem freshman class of 2000 ever to lose reelection.

Roll with it, Robbie. Nothing lasts forever, Be glad we have a President who fights back. According to conventional wisdom, a GOP president no matter who it was was gonna lose seats in this first midterm. Trump is no dummy. He’s had setbacks before.

I predict that he will tell the GOP congress caucus that he wants to do infrastructure spending, in return for modest wall funding. They better get on board, or he will do the deal with Dems alone, but would rather it be the GOP’s idea.

Good government is good politics.

Santorum is an idiot.

I may disagree with the “suburban voters are a problem”. There are mixed messages being sent tonight that I can’t fully identify with. On a meta level, people want Republicans representing them in the Senate and at the state/gubernatorial level, but they also want a check on Trump’s power by voting Dem in House elections.

Evers is dying a slow death. 95% of vote reported in Dane. 45% reported in Brown County (Green Bay) which is Walker country. Toast.

I wonder how much the disruption caused by the hurricane affected polling in FL? Because DeSantis outperformed the RCP average by more than 4 points and Scott outperformed by 3 points.

Tina 873

Cool. That’s a relief.

Based on what the Selzer poll said, I thought the IA GOP GOV was toast. That’s a good GOP surprise– somebody said there were none, but IA GOV certainly qualifies. Grassley is 85, so it’s … important, too.

861. “In the meantime, “I warned you soulless degenerates…””

Wow, and honest politician. He just didn’t understand that soulless degenerates comprise 64% of the voting population. He should targeted them with a direct mail campaign. Promised them all sorts of goodies. He could have won.

ReadyFirst,

I was USAF.

Too bad Kris Kobach was a bad enough candidate to lose in a solidly GOP state against split opposition—and take two House seats down with him.

plus we beat the democrats media darlings…. Beta, Stacey, and walker may win. Who else? Gillum. ha.

Nobody else just watched Beto torpedo his career?

(I probably missed Mitt Romney’s victory speech to see it)

Where are you all seeing that WI-GOV has Walker leading? CNN still has him down 10K.

Wes, truly amazing how well you know your state.

Kudos my man.

EML says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:18 am

I may disagree with the “suburban voters are a problem”. There are mixed messages being sent tonight that I can’t fully identify with. On a meta level, people want Republicans representing them in the Senate and at the state/gubernatorial level, but they also want a check on Trump’s power by voting Dem in House elections.

– The Senate has everything to do with the class of Senators up this year. Had it been the 2016 class, I think the results would have been far different. This Democrat class of Senators ran in two great years for Democrats. Reality in traditional Republican states caught up with them.

Politico which has a faster count than CNN in WI has Walker ahead.

MSNBC has to be besdies themselves about Walker holding on. Kossacks too.

Rf, Marv, nice h/t from trump in Florida. That Pensacola rally was insane.

WISC–Gov.

Walker is down by tiny bit.

But the Blue counties are all in at 100% counted (or nearly 100%).

Many of the Red counties are about 80%.

________________________________________

I am calling it for Walker.

Republicans may have lost SC1 House seat.

BOOM!

.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker is up 1200.

.

It’s over.

.

MichiganGuy calls it for Walker!

887. Marv, that was from me, your army brother in arms.

Thanks, Phil. I’m not shy about which way I lean politically, but I try to analyze things as dispassionately as possible. I don’t always get it it right—I didn’t expect losses this big in the House—but I try.

As far as NC, since I live here I feel obligated to give the rest of you superior analysis on it. I do as much research as I can before I state my views. I feel I owe that to all of you.

#896 Tina,

I love my state, but I still root for the Service Academy football teams…….all four of them, plus the US Merchant Marine Academy team too.

The time to analyze all this will come later, as well as all my predictions, which look pretty good once again for the most part…

But, there was a Blue Wave.

And there was a Red Wall.

Something for everyone.

Democrats would have done better in big races if they had not nominated candidates so far to the left.

Republicans would have done better in all sorts of races if not for the anchor of DJT. It looks like every single CD that went for Clinton, and had a GOP Congressman is now going blue. That’s really bad for Republicans.

Democrats were ultra-energized this year, but Republicans matched it for the most part. The way the left acted on Kavanaugh was political malpractice. They hurt themselves big-time.

Republican party machinery, built up years ago by the RNC, etc, is still pretty good.

There will be a Presidential election in two years and both major parties should be very afraid of losing the way they are currently headed because neither seems capable of addressing their fundamental problems and why half the country considers each of them toxic and unacceptable.

In a way it seems the Democrats with brash and controversial personalities lost, and the more mundane Democratic candidates won.

Dudes… Milwaukee dropped 90000 absentees after the results were in last time… are they already in this time?

I drove to North Carolina once. No need to ever do it again. The Outer Banks are over-rated. Sand is sand.

There is nothing I like about the South except it elects Republicans. I hate the history, weather, fake friendliness of the residents and their awful accents.

Every time Wes tries to tie me to Menendez, I will remind him that, unlike him, no pregnant women was ever beaten because of me.

And seriously, Beto gave his concession speech while tweaking on something.

Devin Nunes up in his race, but only 11 percent in.

Tester lead still shrinking.

900 ReadyFirst

From last Sat:

Army 17

Air Force 14

Black Knights are very good!!

55% of precincts haven’t reported out of Brown County in Wisconsin. Dane has reported 97.6%

Tester’s lead in MT shrinks to 8300 with 34% in. If Rosendale keeps this up, Johnny T is gone.

BOOM.

“I’m going a bit out on a limb, but I’m calling WI Gov for Scott Waker. Evers has been averaging a bit over 600 vote lead per precinct in Dane (Madison) but there are only 11 left. Walker has lots of votes yet to report in rural areas and the Fox River Valley. Walker by 12-25,000”

https://twitter.com/henryolseneppc/status/1060040883578388481?s=21

Wes

You got NC-09 right.

903. CG, agree with a lot of what you said. A polarization is taking place. And the relative strength of both sides will be tested when Trump runs for re-election, and the House is again up for re-election.

Bitter, i’m Friendly. Nothing fake about it. Chill, guy.

875. Jai. No, futures rise on the realization that Republicans keep and expand the big boy seats of power (senate and big state governorships). Sucks losing the house, but we get a re do in 2 years, a presidential year.

SanDiegoCitizen says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:31 am

903. CG, agree with a lot of what you said. A polarization is taking place. And the relative strength of both sides will be tested when Trump runs for re-election, and the House is again up for re-election.

– The suburbs would flip back to Republicans quickly if Trump stopped acting like a nutjob or Trump decided not to run and Haley was the nominee (that won’t happen by the way). The suburbs were a reaction to Trump’s behavior.

I know, Mnw. For a long time I thought MacReady would win, but I always gave Harris a shot. Once I observed Harris’ ground game and aggressive airwave strategy, I reconsidered and gave him the edge.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker is up 1000+.

.

94% in

Nelson concedes in FL.

Colonel McSally’s lead is back up to about 7600. Anybody know anything about LaPaz County out there? It hasn’t reported any votes. It’s in SW AZ and surrounded by red counties.

McSally now +7000 with 61% in.

Tonight probably ensure Senate control until 2022 and probably 2024. Don’t forget Alabama should be an easy pickup if good ole Roy doesn’t run.

DEMs hold AZ-01. I had hopes for that one.

I’m still in shock Steve Russell lost OK-5

Marv says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:34 am

Colonel McSally’s lead is back up to about 7600. Anybody know anything about LaPaz County out there? It hasn’t reported any votes. It’s in SW AZ and surrounded by red counties.

– She’s my favorite candidate of the cycle.

Tester is up now by only 6800. Rosendale May yet win this.

Tester lead down to 3.3%. Another pickup on the horizon.

So no CA seats have flipped yet?

Wes says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:37 am

Tester is up now by only 6800. Rosendale May yet win this.

– A place where early voting probably hurt Rosendale.

Michiganguy,

What site U using for Wisc vote totals?

Linkie please?

Wisconsin Gov. Walker is up 2600+.

.

95% in

Looks like Hillary may carry MO too!

Robbie,

I’ve had my eye on that race too.

I thought you had a trip tonight.

Cow, I’m using Fox.

.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/gubernatorial

phoenixrisen says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:37 am

I’m still in shock Steve Russell lost OK-5

– As I’ve said for months, this is what happens in a wave (in the House).

Tester needs to lose.

Disgusting pig.

890. “(I probably missed Mitt Romney’s victory speech to see it)”

You can watch a recording of it. Was a good speech, he started out quoted Major Taylor the Utah National Guard member who recently died in Afghanistan.

We will see what happens, but I have memory from past elections regarding both Montana and Connecticut, where late in the night, or the next day, big votes suddenly came in for Democrats and Republicans lost.

MiGuy,

the site I am accessing only has 44% in from Green Bay and Walker is up about 10-12K.

Walker only down 6k now… still about 200k votes out.

Marv says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:40 am

Robbie,

I’ve had my eye on that race too.

I thought you had a trip tonight.

– No. I went to a party for the Kentucky/Duke basketball game. This is Kentucky after all.

Major Taylor should be the “Person of the Year.”

but it probably will be David Hogg, just to piss off Tina.

Cow, see post#936

Keith Ellison won MN Attorney General.

Nice job staying home, lisab.

In a prior post, I contrasted the results we’re seeing to those of 2010. In both cases, the balance of power shifted in Washington, with the President retaining a majority in the Senate (in ’10 a diminished majority, and in ’18 an increased majority) and losing a majority in the House.

Now turn the clock back to 2002. The Republicans GAINED a majority in the Senate and ADDED 8 seats to their majority in the House. We added to both of those majorities in 2004 while retaining the White House. Things were looking very good for the R team.

Then what happened? The invasion of Iraq turned into a quagmire, and we lost the House majority in 2006. Then, came the Financial Crisis of 2008.

President George W. Bush became something of a pariah within his own party. And, Speaker Denny Hastert became the highest ranking politician in history to wind up in jail.

Presidents (and Governors) often have to deal with divided government. We will see how this President does in such a situation. But, there are worse things than not winning your first election.

924. “Tonight probably ensure Senate control until 2022 and probably 2024. Don’t forget Alabama should be an easy pickup if good ole Roy doesn’t run.”

Agree with Robbie. Probably the best outcome for the Republicans tonight; the Florida results are the second best.

Jason is wrong. Walker is up 3100

.

96% in

Robbie,

Rupp Arena!

How on earth did you score tickets for a game like that?

Speaking of arrogant idiots who never had a clue, Bost won by… 22000.

But… he shot a dog! And…and.. Brendan Kelly is a really strong challenger!

Alabama aside, Senate map is really tough for Republicans in 2020, but that’s like an eon from now.

As expected, I see that several here have taken my lead from weeks ago in the “gridlock will be ok” and “in spite of everything, including Democrats winning the House, I am not unhappy…”

I knew it.

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/wisconsin/

This shows

49.1% Scott Walker* GOP 1,179,784

49% Tony Evers Dem 1,177,363

2% Other 47,157

92.2% of precincts reporting (3,389/3,676) *Incumbent

2,404,304 total votes

944. Gun control seems to have fizzled as an issue this year. The latest Gallup poll is showing the majority of people are now against an “assault” rifle ban

I always said Bost would win. Impressive showing for him.

(Sadly I called every race in my state correctly, including the unfortunate defeat from Randy Hultgren, which a couple of weeks ago I was told that I was nuts for even being concerned about since all the toupees were saying “Leans R.”

But the person I had pegged as a loser from Day 1, was mnw’s boy Kris Kobach.

What a disaster.

Marv says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:44 am

Robbie,

Rupp Arena!

How on earth did you score tickets for a game like that?

– The game was in Indianapolis. I went to friend’s house to watch, but I’m a Louisville fan so I was very happy Duke smacked them.

It was health care, the #1 issue?

I thought Obumbler fixed all of that?

In fact, some “Rs” loved it so much, they kept it.

Rosendale within 2000 votes of Tester. Tester is up 1.7%

Walker appears poised to win, as the remaining areas are more GOP oriented. Also, the Rosendale and Tester gap in MT is narrowing, with Rosendale gaining on Tester.

So, I suppose about everyone is both happy and sad about something tonight, eh?

Six years ago everyone here went to bed with Tester trailing his opponent.

Not true about MT. What happened was a late Indian Reservation dump put Tester ahead, but it wasn’t a big dump. Tester was up more at this stage last time around.

As for CT I think that did happen, but the lead for the R is bigger now, about 30k votes and 83% in. That being said it shows New Haven only at 3% and a big lead for Lamont.

Tim says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:49 am

So, I suppose about everyone is both happy and sad about something tonight, eh?

– Yes.

Mr./ Vito,

Milwaukee County

223K Evers

116K Walker

100% in

Governorships is went well, OH, Iowa, FL, NH, crossing my fingers for WI.

We need these states in 2020.

“Sadly” troll core-eee is just as big a threadpig troll fool as his BFF Vichey. Get a room & STFU!

But Brendan Kelly raised way more money! And…and… Bost is really controversial!

That’s the way it goes, Robbie. We win some, we lose some, and some get rained out.

I’m sorry, folks. The Senate aside, this is a really bad result. It never should have happened. If Trump saved the Senate, he absolutely cost the party the House.

Jonathan Karl

@jonkarl

ABC New projects that the Democrats will pick up between 32 and 36 seats in the House.

49% Scott Walker* GOP 1,185,228

49% Tony Evers Dem 1,184,244

938. “Tester needs to lose. Disgusting pig.”

Actually I met him once, and he was sort of fun. But I shouldn’t say that on the board, or I might get exiled to Bogo Pogo.

In smaller Western states, many people get to know political office holders. Often if they like them, they will vote for them irrespective of their politics.

Well, it looks like even my County Commissioner lost in formerly completely safe GOP suburban territory. Complete bloodbath for Republicans in Chicagoland.

For the first time in my life, I have zero Republicans representing me at any level of government.. well, unless Township counts.

I sure am happy to get rid of Nelson, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp.

I am glad the two socialists governor candidates in FL and GA lost.

If McSally and Heller win, Walker pulls it out and the GOP holds its own in CA, I won’t complain.

Sorry to see Comstock lose, I hope she stays in politics and runs for the Senate at some point.

Well Steve Poizmer is leading in the ca race for insurance commissioner. He held the position as a republican, but he is running as a npp.

Got auto rates down until,the illegals swarmed the state.

Comstock vs. Warner jason?

That would be NeverTrumper Steve Poizner who left the Republican Party and actually meant it.

(When all is said and done, a Democrat will win that statewide office too though in CA I fear)

McSally +9500 with 62% in. That’s about a .5% lead.

Jason is wrong. Walker is up 3100

.

96% in”

Hey, moron, you do understand this is a dynamic process right?

That the numbers change?

968. “I’m sorry, folks. The Senate aside, this is a really bad result. It never should have happened.”

Sorry to disagree Robbie, but it is normal for the party in power to lose House seats in a mid-term election. Your talking about maybe a 10-15 seat majority, which not overwhelming.

Collins and Hunter both won…………and they’re under indictment. Geez……

Ned Lamont is a real idiot.

I am glad he is losing again.

Pounce de Leon is trailing against Frankenstein,

#972 That’s exactly how I see the election result, except I’ll add my disappointment over the MI senate race. Unfortunately, James seem to get a late momentum rush.

Collins and Hunter both won…………and they’re under indictment. Geez……”

Bob Menendez, the biggest scumbag in Congress, won.

Geez…..

LOL@Jason, he was way off. He said, Walker was down when Walker hadn’t been down for a while but, Jason will not take responsibility again!

971. “Complete bloodbath for Republicans in Chicagoland.”

Just Republicans? The place is a slaughterhouse, particularly for young males.

CG says:

November 7, 2018 at 12:45 am

Alabama aside, Senate map is really tough for Republicans in 2020, but that’s like an eon from now.

That’s not true- they are defending more seats, but if memory serves only two are in blue states.

Gardner in CO

Collins in Maine- she will not lose

I’m grateful Hunter won, indictment notwithstanding, & held off that little terrorist wannabe.

Trump didn’t cost the party the House. There were a lot of other factors, PA gerrymandering, retirements (no they weren’t all because of Trump, actually most weren’t and the normal loss of seats in midterms).

But I agree he helped with the Senate.

Gpo

That troll is just as bad as the other one.

985. Chicagoland is a big place and very diverse. There are lots of areas (even within the City of Chicago itself) that are quite affluent. It’s horrific though that some parts of the city see such horrific violence and despair. Not really something to joke about.

What Robbie misses is that the GOP held gov in very Dem states like MD and CT, while picking up significant seats in senate so this is not a wave. It’s hard to have a wave given these results, especially when Nelson loses in FL.

I’ve said all along that’ if Dems control House it will be all impeachment and Russia for 2 years which plays into GOP hands for 2020. Lest not forget that the Dems won mainly due to House retirements of NeverTrumpers so many of these will be competitive in 2020.

Hey MG moron, GFY.

He was down 6k when I looked, at 89% of the vote in.

You really are a brainless wonder.

And Nunes is winning by 15 points now.

The Drats threw some money at him because he exposed the Russian hoax and coup.

jason is clearly attached to DJT’s posterior. Not unexpected. He has even surpassed NYCMike in that regard.

But he promised he would be very “unhappy” if Democrats won the House. Act like it!

How are Arizona and Nevada doing? Not finding much information.

Jason, take responsibility for your actions! On another note the most the dems can win is 35 seats. Not good for Republicans but, could of been a lot worse.

FOX has Walker +1500 w/ 98% in.

McSally +10000 w/ 63% in.

The house needs to do some things before the Reign of Piglosi, the banking dummy, and the Russian stooge take over.

Middle class tax cuts.

Border wall.

And cut funding completely from Fuhrer Mulehead

…and what about WI. A blue wave would have swept Walker out by a large margin and risked Ryan’s seat.

If I were Trump, this is not a bad night going into re-election having a bunch of loonies overreach for the next 2 years in the House.

Not good for Dems on SCOTUS either. Doubtful Ginsberg lasts to 2022 or 2024…and I think Thomas retires after this term.

CNN headline…Indicted Republican Congressmen re-elected in New York and California…would you like to perhaps mention Bob Menendez?

There was a comment reported from Heller’s campaign that Elko E-day vote was 78% R.

Sounds like the rurals are going big for Heller just like in IN, NO and MT.

Should be huge vote dumps quickly reported in NV once the last voter votes.

Republicans winning in Nevada!

For some reason, I actually feel relieved strange to say. This could have been much worse.

What about those absentees in Milwaukee? Were they all counted?

I am unhappy Rs lost the House.

But a lot of very good results otherwise.

So take your asinine TDS because Jeb lost and GFY.

well I guess that Indiana is a solid restate no matter what. GOP lost a few general assembly seats but still hold supermajorities in both chambers. No state Dem officeholders still.

AZ has to have the slowest vote count in history.

You have a link to the NV count? CNN is worthless

The guy on MSNBC just said there are 40,000 uncounted absentee ballots to be counted in Milwaukee County during the next hour. Could doom Walker if true 🙁

All of Dane is in. I’m curious, how in the world can you drop a ton of absentees with 100% of precincts reporting?

If you are truly “unhappy”, you are in the first state of grief, which is denial.

Or you have simply now come around to my position that other things up this year, such as the Senate, were more important than the House. I knew you would.

Speaking of Jeb Bush, I think the campaigning he did for both Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis made a big difference in getting them votes from traditional Republican types who were turned off by Trump. So, please clap for Jeb!

Tester now on the ropes! Below 50 with 50% out.

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1060035111129890816

#1004: No. About 45K to be counted.

Trump’s role in this midterm

The party out of power goes into the midterm with a lot of energy. Trump, simply by winning, gave the other party an advantage. But, more so, his personality is quite abrasive, and that further energized the opposition. On the other hand, he personally revved up the base of the Republican Party and of his followers. That juiced our turnout and made us sufficiently competitive to win in the red- and reddish-purple state Senate races.

So, he was both the cause and the cure of our problems in the midterms.

I will clap for Jeb’s contribution if you clap for Trump’s major contribution in all the close senate races.

Rosendale has pulled to within 0.8% of Tester with 44.5% in.

I think Tester is Toast!

TIM! Welcome back!

How is GA and the Kudzu Vine treating you? (I think that was the name of the program I heard you on once…)

Two cow counties just reported in Nevada with the same margin as 2012 for Heller.

Jason, Nevada link

.

https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

Yep, the Jebbots were hoping the blue wave would swamp Trump.

It didn’t.

Thanks, MG.

#1013 That will net Evers around 15,000. The guy also said half of the Brown County (Green Bay) vote was still out, so who knows.

Which Senate race? The ones in Deep Red territory, the Republicans might have been expected to win.

Cramer, Hawley, Braun won with more than enough to spare.

Whatever happens in AZ, I think McSally would have won by more if not for Trump and same in NV.

The person Republicans need to thank for the Senate wins is Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

I mean like, EERILY the same.

I would not,count out Heller.

I donate money to him,, Mcsalley, and Nunes.

If Tester loses a squeaker, I will offer props to Trump for perhaps making the difference

And another! guess I picked the right year to compare with the last two weeks.

That link sucks. It still has TX at 76% and AZ at 26%.

I wouldn’t get hopes up about Montana until Gallatin and Missoula are done reporting, by the way.

mnw says:

November 7, 2018 at 1:01 am

Gpo

That troll is just as bad as the other one.

Roger that

Heller up 3000 with 2% in.

.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/senate

Nunes wins!!!!!!

FWIW, the Democrat area of Bost’s district just came in and his margin is like 5 points now. A lot closer than 2016 to be sure.

Elsewhere in Downstate IL, Rodney Davis barely hung on, after having trailed all night.

Tester losing by 49 votes now.

1017: Doing well, GF. Thanks. Great to check in and see so many of the old crowd still here!

Rosendale just took the lead in MT by 50 votes per CNN

I do not get a hello from Tim??

Hello Tim.

Do you reckon there is not enough outstanding Democrat votes for Abrams to catch up in Georgia?

I still maintain that the most electable candidates in each party, in both Florida and Georgia, lost in the primaries, but someone had to still win those races.

In California, in an act of sanity, voters rejected a rent control initiative 65% to 35%.

De Leon is carrying a lot of Republican areas which has made his vote reasonably close to Feinstein’s.

Bill Nelson has conceded to our new Senator & my new colleague @ScottforFlorida. What exactly is CNN & other outlets waiting for to call the race? We don’t need CNN to swear him in to the Senate,but its kind of annoying anyways.

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) November 7, 2018

Is this true? Cn and n will not call Florida Senate?

1035- I won’t speak for everyone here, but I certainly miss you. Aside from Big Joe, we have a dearth of quality Dems these days.

CAN THERE BE BRETT KAVANAUGH WITHOUT TRUMP,I THINK NOT,SO GIVING PROPS TO BRETT IS GIVING PROPS TO TRUMP

If we can hold the House losses below 30, Walker, Rosendale, Heller, and McSally winning, that’s okay. Disappointing to lose control of the House but we made great gains in the Senate.

Wisconsin Gov. Walker up 1500+ with 99% in. Recount?

rosendale up by 3300 now

What about the gas tax, did not look good for repeal?

That PHUQIN sheot head , the ca ag, clearly confused people intentionally with the verbiage.

Hello, Tina! Wonderful to see you on here, still!

Thank Kavaugh for wins?

…and who nominated and stuck by Kavanaugh…so by default you’re thanking Trump. Any other recent GOP POTUS would have buckled me thinks.

The person who made Brett Kavanaugh a judge was President George Walker Bush.

I think trump does get so,e credit for Florida. I seem to recall that Scott and DeSantis were losing in many of the polls.

The lead shrunk after Pensacola.

Ha! The media’s new tactic. Never call a race, that way the candidate isn’t legit and can’t be seated.

Yes, recount in Wisconsin. Race is within .25%. Triggers automatic recount

No other GOP President would have buckled on Kavanaugh. Good for Trump for not pulling the plug, even as allegations of sexual assault hit close to home for him.

You do remember that President George H.W. Bush stood by Clarence Thomas and GWB never wavered from his commitment to our troops in Iraq.

1038: Still unknown. There are a bunch of provisional and absentee ballots outstanding. Plus, most of the remaining live vote is in the Metro Atlanta area. If I had to guess, I would think Kemp barely hangs on.

3500 now

rosendale now up 3300

Hi Tim, I am on here still . Was away before 2016 election.

Rosendale. And who said it first

The person who nominated Kavanaugh for SCOTUS was Trump not Bush. Kavanaugh was an unknown to the vast majority of America until Trump nominated him.

thx phoenixrisen, we better lawyer up. I hope it will not be like the Fla. Presidential contest between Bush vs. Gore.

4100 with 58% in

The present count of the Mia Love race in Utah is 52% McAdams and 48% Love. However, most the vote that has been counted is from Salt Lake County which is more Democratic. There are a lot of votes to be counted in very Republican Utah County. The winner may not be know for a few days. There are a lot of mail ballots that need to be counted.

The Federalist Society picked Kavanaugh for SCOTUS, but whatever. It was great to see a Bush Loyalist get the job, and of course the former President was influential in getting Susan Collins and others to vote yes.

Oh, if we take out Tester….

Alaska Gov. race Dunleavy (R) up 6000 with 26% in

GOP could net 6 to 57 seats.

I doubt Bush 1 the Perv would have done that given the Senate today. …and yes, he is a perv for grabbing women regardless of his war record and govt leadership. It was always clear Thomas would be confirmed.

Hugh 1058

RE: MT SEN

Why… I think YOU did, Hugh!

Ahh, big vote dump for Evers out of LaCrosse

Am hearing some predictions that Democrats may pick up about 30 seats, which would give them all of about a 7 seat majority.

It would be disappointing if Mia Love joined Carlos Curbelo and Mike Coffman in being the NeverTrump Republicans who lost tonight to Democrats. Very few of them even attempted to run this year.

In all those districts, I am sure a good deal of Trump die-hards decided to punish them.

1067. You are insane.

Heller’s goose looks cooked.

“Washoe numbers: Rosen up 53-43 in early/mail. That is devastating for Heller.”

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1060057306237288448?s=21

did Texas GOP voters punish cruz for being a sore loser two years ago?

Bush the perv.

I call him Groper 41.

Alarming that he did it to at least one woman in his prime.

The later incidents are on his family.

They laughed about this rather serious matter.

Oof. 45 precincts outstanding in counties Walker leads in, 38 precincts in counties Evers leads in. Really, really tight

#1058 I’ve been saying that for a week.

Some probably punished Cruz by withholding their vote, but Cruz has his own problems. People just don’t like him.

Months ago i was willing to bet Cruz would win by double digits, but i was wrong.

Trump should appoint Cruz to Thomas’ SCOTUS seat next year.

Abrams concedes

I fully expected that if Kemp lost in Georgia, he would refuse to concede for weeks.

Now, it looks like Abrams may be the one doing that.

She definitely did not concede.

So, Abrams did not concede. Haven’t really heard much from Kemp, either. Looks like tomorrow, sometime……

Guess not LOL!!! She’s down 3 points with 96% counted. You’re cooked Stacey

These races are getting closer and closer, down here. I’m getting too old for this! LOL

Georgia Gov. race Abrams (D) will not concede. Sad

.

Kemp 51%

Abrams 48%

.

99% in

.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/governor

According to CBS, she is down 4 percent with 99% in.

She is saying there are tens of thousands of absentee ballots.

why isn’t she conceding? 99% counted. down 115,000

Was Anrams surrounded by new black panthers?

Freaking wacko.

Trump calls Pelosi to congratulate her

President Trump called House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi at 11:45 p.m. to congratulate her, Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff Drew Hammill tweeted.

Hammill said Mr. Trump acknowledged Pelosi’s call for bipartisanship in her remark

Yeah losing by 100000

10000 absentees will really make a difference.

Sorry. I used to respect elder Bush though I thought he became out of touch as POTUS.

It’s disgusting that an elderly man grabs a young woman. This was not consensual. Regardless if he was POTUS or a war hero, most men would not stand for this if it were their daughter or wife being grabbed. He’s a perv!

1079 BF

That would be too heavy a lift. Plus, it would open up the damn Senate seat again.

Wherever you guys are getting your MY #s, your place is faster than FOX or CNN.

FOX just changed its MT map from light blue to pink, btw.

BayernFan, Abrams hopes there will be a runoff if Kemp doesn’t win by over 50%

No, Tina. I know all of Abrams’ people. She also has private security.

Rosendale 152,265

Tester 149,703

1093

need a link?

1079.”Trump should appoint Cruz to Thomas’ SCOTUS seat next year.”

I don’t think sitting politicians should be appointed to cabinet positions or nominated to become a judge. It leads to situations like the Alabama special election.

Tony Evers Dem 1,261,238

Scott Walker* GOP 1,260,176

DeSantis came out to Starship’s “We Built This City.”

putting aside the fact that the song is about ultra-left San Francisco, that is a bold choice. Many people consider it among the worst songs ever made. I sort of like it though.

CT has a R governor.

So, she has new black panther and private security?

Who takes the lead?

LaCrosse county is killing Walker.

I gotta take Walt to a DR apt at 9 a.m.

Someone else will have to finish pulling Walker, Rosendale, eller nd McSally across the finish line.

McSally +12500 w/ 63% in.

Not sure FOX is the fastest gun in town.

The Trump loyalist who beat Mark Sanford in the primary looks like she might have been defeated by the Democrat.

Charleston South Carolina.

Nice going.

I watched a couple minutes of Stacey Abrams’ speech and I saw nobody onstage who looked anything like a “Black Panther.” Not even Cam Newton.

Tina has a very different mind.

It looks like the democrats found a truck load of votes for Evers in Wisconsin.

In all those districts, I am sure a good deal of Trump die-hards decided to punish them.”

Zzzzz… like the Never Trumpers who wanted to punish Trump by electing a Dem House.

I can think of at least 2 here….

Looking at where the uncounted votes are in Mia Love’s district, I could see her pulling ahead. Utah County is one of the most Republican places in the nation.

What’s with the Arizona counting? Every couple of minutes they move maybe ten votes in either candidate. Take about slow motion.

Arizona is razor thin. It will depend on whether McSally bleeds any more from Maricopa.

Heller will need strong same day turnout from Washoe and Clark to be down like in early voting.

Tina, there are no Black Panthers with Abrams.

25 Governors and we’re ahead in the five still on the board.

52 Senators and we’re ahead in the four* still on the board.

*this includes the run-off in Mississippi

We lost our quinella, but we should still have four out of five (Pres., Sen. Gov. and State legislative chambers).

Amoral Scumbag hardest hit with DeSantis win.

His unforgivable sin is that he supports Trump.

I voted for the Uber driver who was the GOP nominee in my district.

With 14% in, Heller leads by 4%, per FOX.

Abrams is a committed socialist, a real far left wacko.

Scary she got 48% in GA.

Who gives a ZH*T, who you voted for corr-eee?

Hoping for Rosendale to win but I understand that Tester is still waiting for the ‘urban’ cities of Missoula, Billings, and Bozeman to come in.

And I would use the term urban lighly here.

Thanks, Tim. I.thought she had an entourage of NBps campaigning for her the other day.

Maybe, the Russians faked those photos?

Evers +620 98.5% reported

Maricopa has 13% out but Sinema only built like a 10k lead there with 87% counted. So it’s hard to see how she can make up the difference with what is left.

jason,

That OTHER troll, ProudObamacan, isn’t having a good evening contemplating Abrams’ loss, either.

“Blue wave acomin’, y’all! Stacy gonna DO it! LOL! Sad!”

Montana update: Gallatin county the only hope for tester. 2800 vote lead for Rosendale as I type. If form holds in Gallatin, 40% vote left could net Tester 2000 votes or so. Rest of outlying counties should be GOP favored.

Missoula says 100% reported, but it isn’t.

McSally +15000 w/65% in.

MN-1 Feehan(D) leads Hagedorn by less than 300 votes, 86.8% precincts reporting

i am stunned that mcsally is not running away with AZ.

You all really need to find a way to watch Beto’s concession speech online tomorrow or whenever. You will thank me. If C-SPAN has it, they won’t bleep out the F-bombs.

“MN-1 Feehan(D) leads Hagedorn by less than 300 votes, 86.8% precincts reporting”

Thanks for staying home, lisab.

Scott Walker calls for a recount in Wisconsin. He is down 605 votes.

Also, three of the other six counties in Montana split tickets in the past.

Evers +322 — 98.7% reporting. WOW! Also some very close races in California. What an election! Nail-biting races everywhere

McSally gained votes in the last update of Maricopa… she’s in it.

Indies have tilted Dem. There is no doubt about that considering GOP turnout today.

Thanks Dr. Vito. stay on it… Rosendale up 3,000 or so last look

Walker is done. Absentee vote dump out of Milwaukee

Walker now behind by 30,000 in WI?

It looks like we will lose in Nevada both Gov. & Senate.

Heller lost Washoe by 8700. He’s on the ropes.

“Walker is done. Absentee vote dump out of Milwaukee”

Got my answer.

I’m going to sleep. Goodnight all.

Dems pulled a Kathy Nicholas

For the next two years at least, the United States Senate will still not have it’s first member to have been born in the 1980s…

Josh Hawley missed out by one day.

Heller is gone barring some miracle. That Washoe number is a killer

Heller needs Clark to pull a MiamiDade.

How is it possible that JB Pritzker will only be America’s second fattest Governor?

No… 75000 out of Clark. Sadly, Heller is done.

Looks like GOP gains 4 in the Senate tonight. Heller is done. 85% of Clark just reported. 73% of precincts reporting and Rosen has a 7 vote lead

LOL!!! Sorry, 7 point lead

McSally +21000 w/ 67% in.

Seemingly blue Congressional district on the Presidential level that was held by a Republican went to a Democrat tonight.

Nevada would be the sole state that could follow that trend.

Hagedorn took the lead in MN-1

phoenix

“looks like GOP gains 4”

What are u assuming about MT & AZ?

Pretty sure Tester will hold on.

We’ll have to see every last vote out of Arizona to know that one.

What the heck just happened to the Clark County totals out of Nevada? They’ve gone back down to zero?

Ok. was fox news pathetic tonight? they were embarrassing msnbc and cnn analysis was better than fox. Fox needs to decide do they want to be cnn light or take their own path.

CNN just gave Rosen the checkmark. 🙁

Jon Tester is asking for a recount of People Magazine’s Sexiest Man Alive checkmark for Idris Elba.

The big question is Missoula. Rosendale looks good but I don’t know. Hard to say. McSally holds AZ

When I saw GF say Rosen, I thought he meant Rosendale…

But no..

Only one of them is Jewish..

So fox news panel lets the far left dem dominate and 10 minute conversation. I can get this on msnbc. ugh. go Rosendale. too bad about heller. I think Nevada is a lost cause so long as casinos pay there employees to vote.

What is happening to the West? Used to be stalwart GOP in the days of Reagan. Time and people change everything.

If Tester wins, he can thank the Libertarian, which is only fair since the DEMs circulated his petitions for him. If McSally wins, she can thank the Green.

Ironically, both the Liber in MT & the Green in AZ dropped out.

I’ll have to wait three more weeks for the MS runoff before I can brag about my 34-1 Senate predictions.

Laxalt lost Nev. for Gov. . He was heavily favored

Go brag on your own trollblog, corr-eee. Still ripping off your employer? Still have a hall monitor looking over your shoulder when you’re online?

You are a preening, arrogant, narcissist threadpig troll! Oh, and Dave agrees with I,

Go to sleep mnw. You don’t want to miss the Early Bird special at Denny’s.

I think Rosendale has this won.

total votes cast according to Montana SOS and votes reported on Politico

Big Blue Counties going for Tester

Lewis & Clark 31,013 30,794

Missoula 22,742 22,626

Cascade 17,759 17,627

Silver Bow 16,321 16,127

Almost all are fully reported.

Missoula vote is in. It is down to votes left in Great Falls and Bozeman. I think we are looking ok.

Maricopa now tied. McSally may have this.

Rosendale +4200 w/ 65% in.

This is hardly a blue wave headline from Politico.

“Republicans romp in Senate battlegrounds”

If McSally hangs on, she owes a lot to Doug Ducey and his coattails.

Missoula is not in.

http://mtelectionresults.gov/ResultsSW.aspx?type=CTYALL&cty=32&map=CTY

Hope you are right Sane

Vote counts break big for D team in NV and WI. R team holding on to narrow margins in AZ (Sen), CT (Gov), GA (Gov) and MT (Sen). Rs have been stuck at 191 in the House for a while, while Ds move closer to 218 and more.

Congratulations to the Democrats for the big bounce back from their gut-wrenching loses of 2016.

Congratulations, too, to the Republicans for rising to the occasion and achieving a split decision.

Thank you to the tens of thousands of party activists who constitute to backbone of our two-party system.

And a special thanks to the losers, both the challengers who aspired to public service and the incumbents who have been involuntarily retired from public service.

One thing is for certain, the Virginia GOP better get its crap together and quit all the intraparty knifefighting, acting like Afghan warlords. Virginia and Nevada were just awful tonight. Those are the states I am disappointed in the most. Also a bit in Wisconsin. Guess Wisco voters though Walker has done awesome for him felt like he had overstayed his welcome.

There’s no doubt that adding to a Senate majority in a midterm election for Republicans is a good event.

The map though was heavily in their favor.

The one Senate seat held by a Republican in a blue state from 2016 went Democrat and an incumbent was defeated. That’s definitely a downer.

Assuming for now that Rosendale hangs on and unseats Tester, Democrats also still did manage to hang on in Senate races in five states won by Trump.

Yes, exprapolated that is 6000 more net votes for the idiot tester in montana. That is a problem

Dems flipped SC-1 (Arrington lost)

Rosendale agrees with I.

Bad grammar sounds “fancier,” doesn’t it?

I know it says the Missoula precincts are only 30% reporting, but the votes counted vs votes cast are almost equal.

Maybe something is screwed up on the website.

Good news for gop is that winning Senate seats in red States pretty much guarantees those seats barring retirement or a scandal.

CG says:

November 7, 2018 at 1:53 am

I voted for the Uber driver who was the GOP nominee in my district.

I think we must be in the same congressional district. I voted for Raja Krishnamourthi.

It’s all speculation now, but what would have happened if Dean Heller had stuck to his anti-Trump outlook in a blue state instead of having embraced him so tightly the past several months?

Would he have lost in a primary to Tarkanian?

Maybe, but if not, he would have perhaps fared better against Rosen in the general election.

Hurd now slightly behind in Texas 23?

1186. Yep, same district. Even if I wanted to “send a message” to Trump, I couldn’t vote for anyone who supported the Iran Nuclear Deal.

Bad news about Hurd. That would mean that both African-American GOP House members would have been defeated, and as far as I can tell, he is also the last of House Republicans who refused to support Trump in 2016.

There’s John Curtis from Utah, but he wasn’t in Congress then.

Martha Robey but she has since caved of course, a la McSally.

The CNN map says Missoula is 100% reported, fwiw.

I don’t see how Dems are going to gain 40 seats.

At the moment they have 218 and are leading in 9 races.

Rs have 193 and are leading in 15 races.

Hurd was called the winner. I see he’s up 700 votes on CNN. Did they retract the call?

How can sinema be close in this race. I’m stunned

Poor Corey trying to make “embracing Trump” a problem for Heller… zzzzzz

Heller would have lost by a bigger margin, you read it here first.

Apparently, Hurd lost when the last votes came in, despite his having been declared the winner. Majorly bummed about that.

Definitely the Beto effect, since the district is right next door to his. Ironically, Hurd and O’Rourke are good friends.

Sinema is close because many of the Republican voters who have supported John McCain and Jeff Flake in the past voted for her.

Hard to believe a crappy candidate like Corey Stewart actually got 42%.

There might be hope for a decent candidate after all.

I can’t believe Seth Grossman came as close as he did.

With Hurd losing, off the top of my head, the only House Republican candidate I think won tonight in a district carried by Hillary is David Valadao of CA.

http://mtelectionresults.gov/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?map=PREC

Here is the reporting status. Some maps are showing 100% because 100% of the precincts have PARTIALLY reported.

Some places that are good for Reosendale have also only partially reported.

Sinema is a flaming hater of the military, which McCain fought for his whole career, anyone who liked McCain and voted for her would have to be a complete moron. Flake maybe.

Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania too..

Goodthing he had such a horrible opponent.

Ok. CNN still has Hurd the winner with 100% in.

Tester is done. GOP back to +4 (should have stuck with my rational prediction). McSally looks real good.

The Hurd news happened minutes ago. I will hope that somehow its in error and he has won.

The big Dem dump Corey predicted for CT didn’t happen, hopefully it won’t happen in MT either.

Missoula county has plenty of vote left vito is correct as usual. 2014 there was over 40000 votes, tonight we have barely over 20000 in the county. Unfortunately not good

If Ned Lamont loses again….

He’s just never going to happen.

I will hold off until it’s official. It’s interesting that the GOP candidate had the support of Joe Lieberman. He got back at Lamont once again.

Right now Schumer is probably cursing McDonnell under his breath. McConnell totally screwed Schumer with holding the Kavanaugh confirmation prior to the mid-terms.

As noted above, Hurd is still winning on CNN, and that site has the vote count in the 102k range instead of the 100k range on NYTimes and other sites that say Hurd lost.

I am pleased with PA.

The Dem moonbats on the Supreme Court gerrymanded the crap out of the State.

In my district they put the entire city of Harrisburg to see if they could water down the Cumberland and York GOP vote.

It almost worked but Scott Perry prevailed by a narrow margin.

Losing 3 seats is not good, but it could have been 6.

Going to bed, stayed up way too late. Hope to wake up to Rosendale and McSally as Senators-elect.

I sure hope Hurd has won. Politico has him losing as of 18 minutes ago and I see CNN has him ahead of of 13 minutes ago.

1214. You said that Wolf would only win by 10 points and that every close race would break towards Republicans.

From RRH 3 minutes ago:

3:08 ET: Update from Texas seems to have put Hurd back in the lead by a few hundred votes.

Thank you HHR people for cheering me up about Hurd. (Of course I wouldn’t have even known if not for the first post about it)

McSally +22174 w/ 75.5% in.

I went to David Leip’s atlas and compared the MT counties. Tester is under performing his 2012 totals in a lot of counties, and some have flipped against him.

At the Leip site the vote count in Missoula is about 24k, there were 57 k votes there in 2012.

Tester might get another 7k votes out of there but it is probably not enough.

Handel’s race keeps flipping back and forth also even though “100%” is in.

Good showing for Alaska Republicans.

Once again, the polls there wind up undercounting Republican support.

Arizona is soooo slow at counting these votes! I am wanting to go to sleep, but I am a big fan of McSally and really want to see her pull this out.

Rosendale +3252 w/ 70% (& change) in.

Wolf won by 16, but most close races did go R.

Barletta did do better, lost by like 13.

In my defense when I predicted they would both lose by 10 I hadn’t seen the RCP average showing Wagner down by 20.

I predicted R +4 in the Senate, – 20 in the House.

121: I hope you are right. I agree with the 7,000 votes for Tester in Missoula, but I don’t see the 5,000 offset we need to squeak it out. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

McSally +24500 w/ 85% in.

I don’t think we are going to know MT and AZ anytime soon… McSally just gained 3000 out of Pima of all places, even though it was “100%”

really annoying.

McSally is actually gaining in Maricopa, now tied.

It sounds harsh, but I think that anyone who looked at all the districts nationwide and thought Republicans would actually keep the majority was wishcasting. It was pretty clear that wasn’t going to happen, just like it was pretty clear the Democrats were not going to take over the Senate.

I will probably be in the neighborhood of 2-3 of the balance of power total, but race by race, I will be interested to see how many I got wrong. It’s probably going to be in the teens, after having only gotten 9 wrong in ’14 and 6 in ’16.

hope you are right. I agree with the 7,000 votes for Tester in Missoula, but I don’t see the 5,000 offset we need to squeak it out.”

He should get about 2500 from Beaverhead and Fallon which are reporting 0.

For all the talk on here in recent days, apparently Ralston does know what he is talking about in regards to Nevada after all.

And this Schweikert guy? Who the heck is he anyway? Sounds like the new Lord Arsehat.

CSPAN is replaying Beto’s Magical Mystery Concession Speech.

There’s a third one reporting nothing– Park, I think.

Maybe we finally get rid of Begich in AK.

Because he was an accidental senator he thinks he is popular there.

It’s very much like the Howard Dean Iowa speech from 2004 but with some kind of psychedelic substance thrown into the mix.. and 200 percent more f-bombs.

Beto is moving his arm more than the guy doing the sign language translation is.

It’s even trippier watching Beto do this at 2 30 am.

Somewhere, at this moment, he is cloistered in a room listening to the Allman Brothers

Beaverhead, Park & Falon have not reported anything.

Lamont is closing..

Noem eked it out in SD, wonder why it was so close.

Noem’s opponent was a Pro-Life, pro-gun Democrat (and in a wheelchair.)

But also Noem admitted that after she won the primary she thought she would cruise in the general election without having to do much work. She came to learn better.

All the votes are in, but maybe not enough for the MOF in CT.

Stephanowski has to hope they won’t find 10k votes that were forgotten behind a file cabinet or in a car trunk.

I see 88 percent in CT. But yes, lots of mafia types there..

Trump won Park County, MT by 1400 votes– that’s the third small county that hasn’t reported.

Rosendale is +2300 w/ 75% in.

Harford Courant shows 88 percent counted, with everything left coming from Hartford and New Haven.

Yeah, I saw this movie four years ago. I know how it ends.

LOL!!! CNN still refuses to call the FL Senate race. Pretty butt hurt about that. Arizona should be called. That one is over

Ok, CNN has it at 99 percent in CT with a slightly larger Republican lead.

But I thought CNN was #fakenews ?

Rosendale +5074 w/ 77% in, per CNN.

Fox just said Arizona won’t be called until later this week because there are hundreds of thousands of votes left to be counted?

CNN site update @ 0344

MT Senate

Rosendale up by 5074 w/77% in.

Rosendale up by 5k still at least 2 of his counties not reporting.

It’s going to be close with half of Missoula still to go (although CNN says its only 33% to go).

Republican John Faso of New York was unseated by an urban rapper, but on the other hand, on the West Coast, Young Kim might be in good shape for the GOP.

CNN is fake news for sure, but I don’t see why they would try to make a Republican look like he was winning if he wasn’t.

NY Times site with 93% in McSally leads by 17,240

Good words and important ones from the person who should be the leader of the Republican Party

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/what-can-we-expect-in-the-2018-midterms-heres-what-the-polls-say/2018/10/18/9c0a6eb8-d329-11e8-a4db-184311d27129_video.html?utm_term=.e1384c381d3e

I was trying to link to a clip of Romney from tonight.

He seemed to clearly be contrasting himself with someone else.

McSally +27000 w/ 85% in, according to one of ’em.

Romney agrees with I. GFY.

Marv

I can’t access NYT because paywall. Sinema gained some ground, then.

It could be true, there were 2.1 million votes cast in 2012 when Flake won, and there are only about 1.7 million showing now.

But that was not a midterm.

On the other hand by this time in 2016 we had a result.

The leader of the Republican Party is Donald Trump.

I bet Romney will vote with Trump at least 95% of the time.

Rosendal up 6587 @0400 w/78% in.

Leads 49.5% to 47.6%.

McSally by 14,293 w/94% in.

Rosendale +7119 w/ 79% in, per CNN.

We might be overestimating the Missoula outstanding vote, because 2012 was not a midterm election.

Yup. Rosendale is pulling away, probably outside of margin that Missoula can bring Tester back. I think we can dun this night “The Revenge of Kavanugh on Democrats”

Park City has not reported. I think the other two did. Trump won that city by 1400 votes.

Talking about the Senate of course. GOP got their tails handed to them in the House. Dems will have 30-35 seats

1272 sb Park COUNTY

Rosendal by 7456 w/80% in.

Leads by 2.1%

Mitt Romney has made several statesmanlike statements the past several months. He will be a fine Senator.

McSally by 13,899 w/97% in.

Marv, where are you getting 97% of the vote in AZ?

Henry Olsen of NRO is calling it for McSally…

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1060085373588520960?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Red

Politico. I was about to post it. Actually 96.6%.

Karen Handel has lost the GA CD-6 race by about 400 votes. Sad.

McSally by 14,631 w/98% in.

1278 Red…

NY Times election. I go back and forth to CNN. NY Times is most recent for AZ.

Looking at Ballot Measures, Marijuana (medical and recreational) doing well, Also: Medicaid expansion, Voted ID, Restoration of voter rights to felons after they’ve served their time. Transgender Bathrooms in Massachusetts. Gas tax repeal in California. Sanctuary cities in Oregon.

Miami Herald already has the post mortem on Gillum out…

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article220729745.html

Rosendale up by 7575

MT stuck at 80% for a long time. 4 wood bee butter than 3. U mite get 3 Murkowskis, but prolly not 4.

Marv

How much in?

Tom Bevan

“So every Dem Senator in a competitive race who voted against Kavanaugh lost (Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskill, and almost certainly Nelson), and the one who voted for Kavanaugh survived (Manchin). Coincidence?”

No

Manchin only won by 20k votes.

Had he voted no he would have been toast.

mnw

Still 80% w/Rosendale leading by 2.1%/7575 raw votes.

1289 jason

And Tester’s coughing up blood. (Monty Python)

Wow. You guys are still going strong. Props to you.

1289 Jason,

Beven must have written that before he checked MT.

Marv

Thx. I’m done for the nite.

I’m done.

When does the morning shift arrive to relieve us?

Corey was right, the Dems found the votes in CT.

Rosendale up by 1100 votes.

I estimate Tester gets another 2500 out of Missoula.

Will be very close.

If Dems needed CA to win the House they would have been screwed. Looks like 0-1 pickups.

It seemss Scott Walker lost. Sometimes pols stick around one election too long.

Has McSally been declared the winner yet? She’s up 15,000 with 99% in.

McSally hasn’t been declared the winner yet, Wes, but she’s looking pretty good.

Rosendale is up in MT by 1558 votes with 94% in. Tester closed to with ~1100, but then Rosendale surged in 400 votes from somewhere.

AP has called AZ for McSally. That leaves MT and the run-off in MS.