Biden Leads Dems and Trump in IA, Trump Leads All Other Dems

Joe Biden leads the Democratic field in Iowa by double digits with Kamala Harris in second place according t a new poll from Emerson College.

Joe Biden 29%
Kamala Harris 18%
Bernie Sanders 15%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Beto O’Rourke 6%
Cory Booker 4%
Sherrod Brown 4%
Amy Klobuchar 3%
Julian Castro 2%
john Delaney 1%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 0%
Pete Buttegieg 0%
Andrew Yang 0%

When it comes to the General Election, Donald Trump leads every Democrat except for Joe Biden.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
Nancy Pelosi (D) 45%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 55%
Sherrod Brown (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 54%
Kirsten Gillirand (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 53%
Kamala Harris (D) 47%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 52%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 48%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 51%
Bernie Sanders (D) 50%

Joe Biden (D) 51%
Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%

Clearly they were pushing everyone to pick one or the other and with rounding, it caused a few of the races to go over 100%. Similar to what we saw this morning, Howard Schultz hurts Democrats if he jumps in as an Independent. This poll picked the Trump-Warren match up and added in Schultz.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 40%
Howard Schultz (I) 11%

This poll was done January 30-February 2 among 831 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:11 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (150)

150 Responses to “Biden Leads Dems and Trump in IA, Trump Leads All Other Dems”

  1. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Lost in the VA Gov media coverage: #CovingtonCatholic lawyers sent legal letters to @nytimes @maggieNYT @washingtonpost @CNN @NPR @SavannahGuthrie @mitchellreports @amjoyshow @chucktodd @thehill @TheAtlantic @GQMagazine @kathygriffin @secupp. 7 lawyers are working on it now.(H/T: OAN)

    Revenge is a dish best served cold!!!

  2. wheelz91 says:

    Does anyone really think the Dems would be calling for this guys resignation if the lt. gov was a republican and not a left wing loon black man?

  3. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Will repeat my post from the previous thread:

    “It is only one poll, so will need more polling to see if it is a trend, but it appears as expected that Biden is the strongest candidate — although he may not be acceptable to the Democratic Party’s left-wing.

    One also has to wonder if the recent Democratic craziness in having an impact on some of the Democratic candidate polling numbers. Even without Schultz, Trump is running about even with every other candidate than Biden.”

    We now have a 2nd poll, from Iowa a swing state, which shows its close. In Iowa, Trump is competitive with Biden. It is too early to write off Trump. Also, the Democratic circus may be having an effect.

  4. jason says:

    The interesting thing about the polls on the previous thread is that IF they are correct, Trump would win the election against everyone except Biden.

    As we saw with Hillary a 3 point national lead is not enough because of the “wasted votes” in CA, IL, NY, etc. Hillary had over a 7 million vote lead in those states, that wipes out the 3% and makes the rest of the country very competitive.

    On the other hand if the IA numbers are true, then Trump will have trouble winning re-election, if he only wins by a couple points there he is not winning PA, MI, or WI.

  5. jason says:

    The only reason Biden is ahead is name recognition.

    Let’s face it, most Dems don’t know who Kamala Harris is.

  6. dblaikie says:

    For months we have been hearing numerous folks that everyone can’t stand Trump and that he has no chance. For them the 2020 election was already over. All these polls if accurate is bad news for that way of thinking.

  7. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    According to Axios, the moderate Democrats are reconsidering even running given the rise of leftism in the Democratic Party. Assume this will benefit Schultz, and ultimately Trump.

    “The rising Democratic enthusiasm for big government liberalism is forcing a trio of leading 2020 contenders to rethink jumping in, several sources tell Axios.
    What’s happening: Michael Bloomberg and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, each of whom were virtual locks to run, are having serious second thoughts after watching Democrats embrace “Medicare for All,” big tax increases and the Green New Deal. Joe Biden, who still wants to run, is being advised to delay any plans to see how this lurch to the left plays out. If Biden runs, look for Bloomberg and McAuliffe to bow out, the sources tell us.
    The Democratic attacks on Howard Schultz, after he said he was considering an independent bid, reflect the current party’s limited appetite for moderation.
    In “Schultz Derangement Syndrome,” conservative N.Y. Times columnist Bret Stephens wrote: “[T]he neuralgic reaction to his bid says something about the ideological drift of the Democratic Party.””

  8. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    6. Yes, but we just don’t get it. Trump is doomed, just as this guy was for entering the village of doom.

  9. Blobbie says:

    In Northam’s defense he may have just been racist back in medical school when he was learning medical ethics and forming opinions on which children should die.

  10. lisab says:

    UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: You said that the competition in San Antonio was a dance competition?

    NORTHAM: Yes.

    UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: You danced the moonwalk?

    NORTHAM: That’s right.

    UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Are you still able to moonwalk?

  11. lisab says:

    the above is an actual part of the transcript from Northam’s press conference …

    they asked about moonwalking …

  12. lisab says:

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.): “These racist images are deeply disturbing. Hatred and discrimination have no place in our country and must not be tolerated, especially from our leaders – Republican or Democrat. Northam must resign.”

    Ned: Yeah can you imagine if there had been any other Democrat who pretended to be a member of another race ?

  13. Wes says:

    Iowa has trended solidly GOP in recent years and voted 10 points to the right of the nation in 2016. I wouldn’t exactly say a poll showing Trump winning there solidly says anything but that Trump will hold onto a state the GOP flipped during the Obama years.

  14. Wes says:

    For the record, while I’ve said Trump has doomed himself for reelection I’ve also noted partisan politics is highly polarized in this country, meaning Dems won’t blow him out but will beat him.

    I expect PA, MI, and WI to flip while I think Trump holds all his other 2016 states unless Arizonans decide to continue revolting against Trump.

  15. Wes says:

    Why couldn’t Ed Gillespie have found out about the Northam yearbook photo in 2017? Gillespie would then have waltzed into the Governor’s Mansion.

    Alternatively why did Republicans keep this buried till October to stave off the Dem tri fecta?

    This is perfect timing for the Dems as it removes their biggest political liability nine months ahead of the election and does nothing to save Republicans in the Legislature.

  16. BayernFan says:

    Pelosi is running too?

  17. dblaikie says:

    I wonder what Wes thinks from the poll numbers at change research?

  18. Wes says:

    I think they show Trump almost exactly where he was in 2020, DB. That’s fine except Hillary won’t be his opponent this time.

  19. dblaikie says:

    Thanks for making my point. We don’t know who Trump will go against?

  20. Wes says:

    We know whomever the Dems nominate won’t be Hillary and will be running against an unpopular incumbent, DB. That’s really enough to win.

  21. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    20. “That’s really enough to win.”

    No its not. Depends who the Democratic candidate is. Several of those running are weak candidates.
    If Schultz runs, he may pull enough votes to allow Trump to win.

  22. Wes says:

    Well, if you’re hanging your hopes on a Ralph Nader/Jill Stein repeat, SDC, that tells me how weak Trump is as a candidate for reelection.

    Dems aren’t going to nominate Tulsi Gabbard or Beto O’Rourke. They’ll unite behind someone perceived to be Trump’s strongest opponent and focus all their fire on the White House.

    Honestly I doubt Schultz runs or makes it very far before Dems make him radioactive.

    Dems want to win this election badly and smell blood in the water. They’ll do what they have to do to take Trump out. He’ll help them too with his perpetual foot-in-mouth syndrome.

  23. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    “They’ll unite behind someone perceived to be Trump’s strongest opponent and focus all their fire on the White House.”

    Democrats factions are bitterly attacking each other now, they are not going to unite. The leftist are going to fight to the bitter end for control of the party; tech and business democrats will never support the far leftists. Are Dorothy and Toto part of this big, happy unity fantasy too?

  24. lisab says:

    i think the dems uniting remains an open question.

    hillary and obama were bitter rivals, but obama united the party.

    sanders and hillary were bitter rivals and hillary did not unite the party.

    now the leftists WANT to run their candidate after sanders was pushed aside. it is not at all clear they will unite behind biden.

  25. Bitterlaw says:

    The Dems hate Trump more than any President in my lifetime. They will unite to stop him. Book it.

  26. jason says:

    The Dems hate Trump more than any President in my lifetime”

    Trump is in power now. Before that they hated Nixon more than any President up to then. Then they hated Reagan more than any President up to then. Then they hated GWB more than any President up to then. Suburban liberals might really hate him, but I still see a lot of Trump signs in blue collar areas of PA where I never saw a Romney or McCain sign.

    Whether the Dems will unite is certainly an open question. Whether they will pick the best candidate is also an open question.

    Despite all the hoopla, the Dem field is actually fairly weak. The only person with any gravitas on it is Biden, but he has his problems too.

    I think the most dangerous of the Dems is Sherrod Brown. I hope the Dems are not smart enough to nominate him. Not that I think he is anything but a flaming moonbat liberal, but he could carry Ohio and that is the ball game right there.

  27. jason says:

    Dems aren’t going to nominate Tulsi Gabbard or Beto O’Rourke. They’ll unite behind someone perceived to be Trump’s strongest opponent and focus all their fire on the White House.”

    Maybe. But whomever it is will always look better as a generic Dem than the actual nominee.

    wes, who do you think is “Trump’s strongest opponent”.

  28. jason says:

    now the leftists WANT to run their candidate after sanders was pushed aside. it is not at all clear they will unite behind biden.”


    Note a rabid Marxist like Proud ObamaCON was yelling at Big Joe who is a more moderate Dem about supporting Biden.

    The moonbats feel it is their turn now, just like many here said we are tired of losing with moderates like McCain and Romney let’s go with a real conservative (the fact they thought Trump was a real conservative is another issue).

    We can always hope the Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party prevails both in the candidate and in the rhetoric. Unless they win of course, in which case the strategy will backfire.

  29. jason says:


    The Dems are becoming the Party of late term abortions.

  30. Bitterlaw says:

    Trump is incorrect. Democrats are not BECOMING the party of late term abortions. The have supported late term abortions for decades…back to when he was a Democrat donating money to Planned Parenthood.

  31. jason says:

    Yep, Trump is on record as saying he favored partial birth abortion. To his credit, he also said that while he was very pro-choice, he hated the concept of abortion.

    But he was smart enough to know he would never win the nomination with that position.

    Be it as it may, as a pro-choice voter myself, I find the concept of late term abortions completely appalling. I think many people that support abortion in the first trimester will rebel against a Dem platform of what is essentially infanticide.

    The Dems are overreaching if they think partial birth abortion is a winning issue for them.

  32. Wobbles says:

    I am busy today.

    The only news today is negative for the Democrats and those polls are fairly good for Trump.

    I will be here if there is a good poll for any socialist or if Mueller indicts Barron Trump.

    Socialist 2020!

  33. jason says:

    wes says:
    February 2, 2019 at 11:59 pm

    I think they show Trump almost exactly where he was in 2020,..”

    Say what you want about wes, he is certainly a forward thinker.

  34. jason says:

    Wolf is a scumbag. But we knew that.

    “More than 11,000 people who were registered to vote in Pennsylvania were found to not be citizens of the United States — and the state’s Democratic governor didn’t want anyone to know about it.

    Two Republican state lawmakers, Reps. Daryl Metcalfe and Garth Everett, released the information Tuesday. Metcalfe had requested this information from the state in February 2018, but the request was appealed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, and stalled until Dec. 3, after the elections had already wrapped up.”

  35. jason says:

    Most likely the illegal voters are in urban areas.

    We don’t know if all these people voted, or who they voted for, but Michigan was decided by a little over that number.

    Lamb won the special election by what, 500 votes?

  36. Tina says:

    Iowa, Ohio, and Florida do not appear to be trending Drat.

  37. Tina says:

    Jebots are awfully quiet on the Va Governor matter.

  38. Bitterlaw says:

    I do not think Dems will lose many votes because of supporting partial birth abortion. Those who are most appalled by it left the party years ago. I don’t think Independents are swayed by it.

  39. Sheeple, Jr. says:

    Add the following Covington Boys’ defendants to the list in my above post #1. CG’s girlfriend, Ana Cabrera(CNN), is on the list.

    MORE: Legal letters were also sent to: Elizabeth Warren, The Guardian, TMZ, Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., Diocese of Covington, Diocese of Lexington, Archdiocese of Louisville, Diocese of Baltimore, Erin Burnett, Sara Sidner, Ana Cabrera, Amanda Watts…Elliot McLaughlin, Michelle Boorstein, Emanuella Grinberg, Cleve Wootson Jr., Antonio Olivo, Joe Heim, Michael Miller, Eli Rosenberg, David Brooks, Isaac Stanley-Becker, Kristine Phillips, Sara Mervosh, Emily Rueb, Shannon Doyne, Kurt Eichenwald, Bill Maher, HBO, Warner Media Ilhan Omar, Noah Berlatsky, Elisha Fieldstadt, Eun Kyung Kim.(H/T: James Woods)

  40. jason says:

    I don’t think Independents are swayed by it”

    I do. I don’t think you can win a national election on the issue, but I have no doubt it could have an impact on a lot of other races including House races.

  41. jason says:

    Tina, the Jebbots are worried the VA governor thing is a distraction from Trump bashing.


  42. Wes says:

    I don’t think PBA was the problem with Northam’s remarks, Bitter. He seemed to actually advocate aborting a child after a live birth. That’s ghoulish even to many pro choices.

    I strongly suspect Dems released this yearbook photo because Northam made an impertinent remark that could potentially put every Dem on the ballot this year on the defensive in a critical election to win the VA Legislature.

    Ergo, Northam became expendable.

  43. Wes says:

    SDC, I’m going to be blunt:

    Your support of Trump has made you incredibly naive to the actual nature of the Democratic Party.

    All of this caterwauling by the extreme Left—which has been an eminence grise in that party for decades—is simply window dressing. The Dems let their moonbats have fun and then seek out the most electable candidate regardless of perceived ideology because Dems care about one thing: winning.

    It’s nothing new. It even happened in the mid-‘90s when Bill Clinton tacked center. The far Left howled. There was talk of a primary challenge. Ultimately none of it mattered. Dems knew a united government under the GOP was a distinct possibility and rallied behind Clinton, all their histrionic animosity toward his perceived moderation gone, once election season rolled around.

    We’re seeing a variation of that now: The extremist Young Turks have no real power in the party but get to vent now. During the primaries, the establishment Dems will rally behind the most electable person presenting a facade of moderation intended to appeal to uncommitted voters uncomfortable with Trump.

    They know it’s all a front. In office, the next Dem will push the Left’s agenda as much as possible despite not explicitly advocating the more extreme stances of the party.

    Dems care about one thing: winning. They know anyone they nominate will be a true believer while an overt moonbat may be vocal about the agenda but unelectable.

    This happens on all levels, not just the presidential one.

    See Ben Nelson (D-NE) as an example.

    Nelson was a near-lockstep liberal in the Senate who was nominally opposed to abortion and willing to support GWB’s tax cuts. When Obama became President, Nelson took his mask off and irreparably damaged his own political career with the so-called “Cornhusker Kickback.” Belatedly Nebraskans realized Nelson was, as all Democrats are, a partisan hack intending to win only to advance his party’s agenda. He wisely declined a reelection bid in 2012 because of this.

    That’s a microcosm of what we’ll see next year. Establishment Dems will coolly assess the situation, shepherd their least offensive candidate through the primaries, throw bones to the moonbats, and focus on Trump.

    That’s what the Dems do because they understand winning with someone who will push their agenda while pretending not to be an ideological liberal is preferable to losing with someone too extreme to win the election.

  44. jason says:

    It’s a good theory but let’s see if it really happens.

    At the moment the Dems don’t have a lot of “least offensive” candidates except maybe Biden and Brown.

  45. Phil says:

    Democrats will always do what it takes to win. Of course, by winning they have their overriding goal to turn America into their socialist paradise.

    At any rate, Kamala Harris will be the nominee. I pretty well don’t pay a lot of attention to the Democratic horse race. I already know what the outcome will be. The outcome is Kamala Harris.

  46. jason says:

    Maybe I am wrong but I think the moonbats might well nominate one of their own this time.

    Hillary did a lot more than throw bones at the moonbats. She ran on a hard left platform, and the next nominee will be even further left.

    I am not convinced there are any establishment Dems with enough power to dictate the results of the primaries. Maybe they still control the super delegates and that is enough.

  47. jason says:

    Harris is not an “establishment Dem”.

  48. Wes says:

    Polls already show Biden leading before he’s even announced, Jason. They know he has a five-decade unbroken streak of victories built by appealing to the exact voters Trump cannot win without.

    Add to that service under Obama as a loyal Veep and a likely endorsement by the former President, and you have the likely Dem nominee—Donald Trump’s worst political nightmare, a hard-working pol who will go into the very neighborhoods Trump has to run up the score in and already has built-in anti-Trump passion bolstering him.

  49. Bitterlaw says:

    Phil – Did you know Trump would be the nominee a week after he declared? Your certainty about Harris is based solely on your “Demographic” nightmare. If they are desperate to have a black woman as President, Dems would be better off nominating Oprah.

  50. Wes says:

    Hillary ran hard left and lost by being out of touch. The Dems who flipped the House last year toned down the rhetoric and won on Trump’s home turf.

    Do you seriously think the Dems weren’t paying attention to what kinds of candidates flipped the House?

  51. Phil says:

    I’m well aware Harris isn’t an establishment Democratic although she’ll put on the centrist mask for the general election. She’s a raving moonbat. All you have to do is watch her in committee. Just about all Democrats are raving leftist loons just under the surface. Now more are open about it. That’s why she’ll be nominated. Democrats love her ideology. There are no centrists left in the Democratic Party. None. They have either long since died or been driven out. Harris won’t be nominated because she’s black, bitter. She’ll be nominated because she’s a socialist through and through and everyone in the Democratic Party knows it. Now, demographics DO give her a great shot at winning the general. It’s not the same electorate that rejected George McGovern 45 years ago.

  52. Phil says:

    Democrat – a hard leftist who masks or blurs their ideology when necessary to get elected. They usually wat until the general election to put on the mask.

  53. Phil says:

    Take the case of Joe Manchin. Votes with Republicans on occasion but NEVER EVER when Schumer needs his vote. My favorite Manchin moment was when he announced for Kavanaugh five minutes after Collins gave the nomination the final vote it needed for confirmation. Literally five minutes after Collins’ Senate speech.

    They are all nutty leftists. Never forget that.

  54. Tina says:

    Drats keep moving…

    Cuellar (tx) wants “some sort of enhanced barrier” on the border,

  55. Phil says:

    Tina, no he doesn’t. He just said he did.

  56. Tina says:

    I know, but it is progress.

    Saying no, to saying we need an “enhanced barrier, “ to…?

    Also, Drat Kildee now wants a physical barrrier, per his statement this am with the Money Honey.

  57. sandiegocitizen says:

    I cannot predict who will be the Democratc nominee in 2020 (which am sure surprises no one). However, do see a path for a Kamala Harris victory. The California primary will be early in 2020. Harris has a good chance of carrying California, which would give her an early delegate lead. Likewise she likely will do well in state’s like South Carolina with large AA populations. Harris could emerge as an early frontrunner. This could look like the Democratic primary of 2008, when Obama defeated Clinton. An attractive, younger AA woman versus an old white male approaching 80. Keep in mind too that Biden is known to often make silly comments. Harris is a leftist who is likely not as electable as Biden.

  58. Tina says:

    I still think the end around is trump invoking 10 USC § 284. This does not require a National Emergrncy Declaration since the Rinos would likely sheot themselves. The rinos appears to suggest that an Emergency applies only to their foreign crusades.

  59. Tina says:

    Basically, Trump can get the $ and have the military build the barriers as needed,

    That is why the military numbers are increasing along the border.

  60. Tina says:

    And Ann Botoxic can go on with Bill Marr and beotch.

    She outride lies when she says no new border walls have been built, contrary to the press release from DHS.

  61. Wes says:

    Biden does make silly comments. He’s also 10-0 in general elections (10-2 if you count losing two presidential nominations before becoming Veep). His gaffes have never hurt him because they’re part of his image.

    Given his own inability to control his mouth, Trump wouldn’t exactly be able to leverage Biden’s gaffes to advantage.

  62. sandiegocitizen says:

    61. Your assuming Biden becomes the Democratic nominee, which I don’t think is a given.

  63. Phil says:

    If we lose the WH in 2020 we would be better off with Biden over the rest of the field. No, like all Democrats he’s no centrist, but he’s not a complete Marxist like most of the rest of the candidates. He wants us to be Sweden and unlike his other Democratic rivals is ok with doing it in increments. Pretty sure it will be Harris, however.

  64. sandiegocitizen says:

    Last year have consistently watched leftist Democrats defeat more moderate Democrats in California state and local elections. I don’t see that changing in 2020. Do not think Biden will win the California primary. It could be downhill for him after that. The media will rally around Harris or whoever else is the new face of the left.

  65. Wes says:

    You’re assuming the perfect storm needed for Trump’s re-election—an unapologetic moonbat and a Schultz presidential candidacy—are likely occurrences. Those are far from assured.

    Biden is the former Vice-President with decades of elective experience and ready access to donors and campaign apparatus. It would be highly unlikely lesser Dems could compete with the advantages Biden would bring to the race.

  66. sandiegocitizen says:

    64. Didn’t Hillary make the same claim? Harris will have massive amounts of Cailfornia tech and Hollywood money, and star power. Biden will not carry California, and early primary with about 10% of the total delegates. Democratic primary voters have a large number of people of color. Biden’s time may have past.

  67. lisab says:

    Do not think Biden will win the California primary.

    he does not have to. losing primaries is not a huge deal among dems if you are a close second … or hillary would have beaten obama soundly.

    however … the dems have changed the superdelegate system in 2020

    they cannot support biden in the first round of voting

    he has to win on his own

  68. lisab says:

    the number of superdelegates is also reduced

    biden cannot count on the “wise-persons” of the dnc to save him

    he will have to go left, i imagine by picking a vp

  69. dblaikie says:

    I am sorry but trying to define Biden as an electoral juggernaut is laughable. Most of his general election victories were in the tiny state of Delaware. Obama picked him because he thought he would do no harm and might help a little with the labor vote. Uncle Joe has plenty of baggage including his pilgirism. Sorry but I am not scared. In fact the two people who scare are the billionaires who OAC derides. The loons will never allow a liberal, billionaire, capitalist to win the nomination. Truthfully either Harris or Biden would be fine with me.

  70. dblaikie says:

    It is fitting justice that the Socialist Republic of California will ensure that the dems will have a socialist nut case to lead them in 2020. Oh how I hope that happens.

  71. lisab says:

    i imagine the left will start with about 5 major candidates splitting their vote

    biden will have moderates for himself.

    the lefties will get behind 1 or 2 candidates by super tuesday …

  72. Wes says:

    Amazing how you respond to yourself with presumably a comment I made in mind, SDC.

    As I recall Hillary won the primary over Sanders. She also won the national popular vote. Had she had a campaign work ethic and not compromised national security she’d be President now.

    I’m not sure where your rebuttal was coming from.

  73. lisab says:

    “if you like your baby, you can keep your baby” kamala harris

  74. Wes says:

    So DB claims Biden’s baggage will hurt Biden while Trump will suffer no ill effects from Trump’s baggage.

    At best the baggage of each candidate—already known widely to the public—would be a wash.

    I like the goalpost moving too. Biden has never lost a general election—including a Senate bid against a popular incumbent in a year when Nixon carried the state overwhelmingly—but let’s discount his tireless work ethic and electoral success because it happened mostly in Delaware and doesn’t comport with the narrative that Trump is a near lock for reelection.

  75. lisab says:

    biden is in a weaker position than hillary was

    he is not who the lefties want, and they run the party now

    they should choose biden, but i am not convinced they will. actually i am not sure he will even run. he is not saying much …

  76. Paul says:

    What’s up with Iowa?

  77. lisab says:

    why was joe biden the first biden in a thousand generations to go to university?

  78. Wes says:

    I’ve been thinking lately about the various presidential elections and which one might closest approximate 2020.

    We have an unpopular President who’s never had any major appeal after an Electoral College victory over a New York-based politician who won the national popular vote.

    The President’s party lost a large number of seats in the midterms, in the process becoming a minority in the House of Representatives.

    Following the midterm, the President continued to be unpopular.

    This has happened before.

    The subsequent presidential election saw the GOP President’s defeat.

    This was the election:

  79. Wes says:

    Basically Trump in the White House has been a combination of Benjamin Harrison and Herbert Hoover sans the severe economic downturn. That doesn’t exactly bode well for 2020.

  80. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Rolling Stone ranked the Democratic candidates. Biden has fallen to 5th in their latest rankings. Harris is first, for these reasons:

    “Black women are the heart of the Democratic Party, and seeing themselves reflected in the Howard University-educated Harris (born to Jamaican and Tamil Indian parents) could give her an advantage in a field chock full of white men. A straw poll asked women of color active in politics to rank their top three presidential contenders — Harris appeared on 71 percent of ballots. Harris also ranked third in a new, 35,000-vote straw poll of the Daily Kos community, a rough proxy for the Democratic activist base. Harris has a prodigious West Coast donor network and has reportedly been hitting up would-be backers on Wall Street. (Her connections to big money, as well as her past as a prosecutor, could cause headaches.) With California moving its primary up to Super Tuesday, on March 3rd, she could bank a delegate lead that proves difficult to overcome.”

  81. lisab says:

    harris/beto would be an interesting matchup to trump/pence

    every other vp choice for harris at this point is bad

    but of course she could go off the board and pick someone who did not run for president

  82. Phil says:

    Thanks for sharing, SD.

    It will be Kamala Harris.

  83. lisab says:

    senate bill #1

    abortion up until delivery is illegal in all states

    how do you vote senators harris and warren

    senate bill #2

    all billionaires shall immediately be subject to a wealth tax

    how do you vote senators harris and warren?

  84. lisab says:

    of course, the dems may actually pass #2 in the house

  85. lisab says:

    of course senate bill #1 is to block abortions as per the va bill

    not to block all abortions … my wording was poor

  86. lisab says:

    pre-sotu survey


    Are you pleased that under President Trump, the U.S. is no longer shipping pallets of cash to the Iranian regime?

    No Opinion
    Other, please specify:

  87. Cash Cow TM says:

    I have only heard of one of these:

    john Delaney 1%
    Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
    Tulsi Gabbard 0%
    Pete Buttegieg 0%
    Andrew Yang 0%

    But I have heard of Kamal(toe) Harris…

    Who IS Pete Buttgig?
    If the Ds nominate YANG,
    the the Rs have to dump Trump
    and nominate YING.

  88. Cash Cow TM says:

    Say…is there a football game today?

  89. mnw says:

    Happy SB Sunday, homies..

  90. lisab says:

    Analysis: The most shocking part of the racist yearbook photo is what critics leave out

    What more do you need to know? The damage to Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam’s credibility is so beyond repair that some critics say he has to go.
    But here’s an uncomfortable truth that photo won’t reveal:

    Some of the biggest champions for black people in America’s past have been white politicians who were racists.

    Some of our best friends were racist

    A pop history quiz:

    Who was the white Southerner who used the N-word almost like a “connoisseur” and routinely called a landmark civil rights law “the n—– bill.”
    That was President Lyndon Baines Johnson, the greatest civil rights champion of any modern-day president.

  91. Cash Cow TM says:

    I predict a low-scoring first half
    of the Sooper Boll.

    (forgot to post this earlier…)

  92. Tom says:

    Dang Cow, your good!

  93. Bitterlaw says:

    3-3 tie. Wow. This is like a bad pre-season game.

  94. lisab says:

    best game evah!!!!!!!!!!!

  95. jason says:

    Rams suck. Game sucked.

    Snacks were good. Martinis were good.

  96. jason says:

    Add to that service under Obama as a loyal Veep and a likely endorsement by the former President, and you have the likely Dem nominee—”

    Except the moonbats don’t want Biden.

    He was born in 1942 and will be 78 in 2020.

    I don’t think his nomination is a given, but I will agree he might be the Dems best candidate after Sherrod Brown.

  97. Bitterlaw says:

    Lisab could not 5 Patriots without google. To be honest, I would have trouble, too. Do they even have a running

  98. lisab says:

    Lisab could not (name) 5 Patriots without google.

    i could too

    without google … ahem …

    burkehead ?

    but, i admit gilmore, chung and hightower i only know because i watched the superbowl … but i did know five

    and i know at least three of their positions too … i could make a good guess anyway

  99. lisab says:

    i admit i only know the first name of tom brady …

    oh and julian edelman

    the others not so much

  100. jason says:

    The Rams didn’t deserve to be in the SB.

    I wanted both teams to lose, and one of them did so I went 1/2 last night.

  101. Wes says:

    That was one of the worst Superbowls ever. Those who attended should get a refund for their tickets.

  102. Phil says:


    Yeah, Bitter. Abolish ICE. That’s the ticket.

  103. Bitterlaw says:

    I did not say abolish ICE. I thought it was interesting they caught a British rapper. Not the usual catch.

  104. Wes says:

    Justin Fairfax may be caught up in #MeToo. He categorically denies the allegations of course. I would need verification before believing, but Democrats are unlikely to have as low a standard for this as they had for Kavanaugh:

  105. Phil says:

    Fair fax is the Lt. Governor?

  106. Tina says:

    We need some deep state shenanigans or muh Russian updates.

    It is one day before the SOTU.

  107. Wes says:

    Correct, Phil.

  108. Wes says:

    Fairfax’s alleged victim releases a statement via Twitter. Fairfax blames Northam:

    What a CF.

    Did Ed Gillespie and Jill Vogel hire the Jimmy Joe Bob Smith Opposition Research Corporation?

  109. Wes says:

    Finally some intelligence by VA Republicans:

    They won’t impeach Northam.

    This is a wise move as a compromised Northam boosts their chances of holding the Legislature. Having Fairfax focus on fending off a #MeToo allegation is another boon to the VAGOP. Assuming they don’t find a way to screw this up VA Republicans just got a pair of breaks in a state where they’ve had none in years.

  110. Diamond Jim says:


  111. jason says:

    Fairfax blames Northam?

    Not too smart if you want Northam to resign.

  112. jason says:

    Not to mention impeaching someone for a yearbook picture would be pretty stupid.

    The smart move is let the Dems fight it out and hopefully self destruct.

    As wes says, pretty much everything that could go wrong for the VAGOP did, so maybe the worm turned.

  113. jason says:

    WAPO denies Fairfax’s claim that they found “red flags and inconsistencies” in the accuser’s story.

    They say they didn’t run the sto”ry because they couldn’t find anyone that would corroborate it” (she says he forced her to do oral sex in a hotel room).

    Did the WAPO ever “corroborate” the accusation against Kavanaugh, considering the people she said were there didn’t remember it and the accuser could not even state the date or place?

  114. Sheeple, Jr. says:


    I had no dog in this fight, but I tilted toward the Patriots because I consider Tom Brady a class act. Does anyone dispute that he is the all-time best NFL QB?

    Here are the lowlights:

    1- QB- Except for the touchdown drive, Brady was unimpressive. Goff was awful.The Rams had a touchdown if Goff had not floated a pass which was knocked away by a Patriots’ defender who ran 20 yards to make the play.

    2- Half Time Show- I did not watch ,but I read bad reviews about it. Instead, I watched the always entertaining “Puppy Bowl” on the Animal Planet channel.
    Gladys Knight did a wonderfun rendition of our National Anthem.
    I was hoping that the Maroon 5 show would be canceled and replaced by the Virginia Governor and his KKK Band performing an Al Jolson-like Minstral Show with hits like “Dixie”, “Mammy” and ” The Camptown Ladies”. Justin Smollet could have performed “The Ballad of Tom Dooley”.

    3- Advertisements- I found almost all of them BLAH. So now all environmentalist whackos will buy Budweiser because the energy made to make the beer is WIND POWERED!!? Silly!

    4- Sportscasters- At first, I found Tony Romo annoying, but as the boring game progressed, I enjoyed his sassiness and sarcasm.

    5- Level of Play- About as good as any first pre-season game!

    A few thoughts:
    1- Brady and the Gronk should retire. Retirement at the top of your game is the way to go.
    2- The NFL is back if it keeps its social justice warriors under control. Its sjw commercial was in bad taste. Also, it should stop sissifying the game.
    3- Just think, in 6 months the NFL season starts anew. Go Chargers!

  115. NYCmike says:

    “1- Brady and the Gronk should retire. Retirement at the top of your game is the way to go.”

    -Agree on Gronk. Too many injuries. He should leave now.

    As for Brady, let him keep playing. Gisele and I enjoy his time away from the house.

  116. Tina says:

    Surely, the. wp is not biased….

    Sean Davis
    Sean Davis
    The editorial decision is especially curious since Fairfax admits a sexual encounter with his accuser, who–unlike Ford–could actually point to a specific time, date, and location of the alleged assault.

  117. jason says:

    Gisele and I enjoy his time away from the house.”

    I hear she knits while he is gone.

    What do you do?

  118. jason says:

    Gisele and I enjoy his time away from the house.”

    Nothing curious about it at all.

    Fairfax is a Democrat.

    It would have been curious if they had run the story.

  119. jason says:


    The editorial decision is especially curious”

    Nothing curious about it at all.

    Fairfax is a Democrat.

    It would have been curious if they had run the story.

  120. NYCmike says:

    “What do you do?”

    -I am the model she knits around.

    She is dangerous with those needles!

    NOOOOOOOOOOO, don’t deflate those!

  121. Wes says:

    Honestly I think Fairfax may go before Northam does now. He has increasingly less credibility than before:

  122. Wes says:

    This makes Fairfax seem more guilty to me than not:

    Attributing sinister motivations to his accusers, Mr. Fairfax said he took Biblical advice and donned “armor of God” that “allows us to deal with the devil’s schemes and tricks.”

  123. Wes says:

    Let me get this straight:

    In 2017, Republicans had two fairly highly regarded candidates in Ed Gillespie and Jill Vogel running for Governor and Lieutenant Governor in VA.

    They lost by nine and five points respectively to a guy dressed either in blackface or as a Klansman and a man credibly accused of rape.


    We need DW to weigh in on this. It is political malpractice to the nth degree.

  124. NYCmike says:

    What is order of succession in VA if BOTH Gov and Lt Gov go down?

  125. NYCmike says:

    Ok, I looked it up – looks like Attorney General Herring will be next in line, and then the Speaker of the House of Delegates.

    We need another shoe to fall to get a Republican Governor.

  126. Wes says:

    From what I understand, if the LG departs before the Governor, the Governor can appoint an LG, whp would then succeed the Governor.

    However, if both Governor and LG are vacant simultaneously then the Attorney General—in this case Mark Herring—becomes Governor.

  127. Wes says:

    You’ll like this, Mikey:

    Andy Cuomo is blaming federal reductions of the SALT deduction—not NY’s high taxes—for the exodus of high-income earners to other states.

    What the hell.

  128. Wes says:

    Thank you, Ken Cuccinelli, for having an ego as big as Richmond and rendering your own political party essentially irrelevant to state politics with your ill-fated vanity run for Governor.

  129. NYCmike says:

    “Andy Cuomo(DEMOCRAT) is blaming”…….everyone but himself, his party, or their policies.

    You too, if you decide to sit out a Presidential general election due to personal animus towards a candidate, can have a “leader” like the state of NY has.

    Good luck with that!

  130. NYCmike says:

    “From what I understand, if the LG departs before the Governor, the Governor can appoint an LG, whp would then succeed the Governor.”

    -Hadn’t thought about that…..good point there.

  131. Wes says:

    It’s not going to matter if I sit this election out, Mikey, since Trump will carry NC.

    It’s the people he’s alienated elsewhere you need to worry about.

    Good luck convincing all those suburbanites just itching for a chance to vote Trump out of office to vote for someone they’ve come to viscerally despise.

  132. NYCmike says:

    The less people like you harp on his bad behavior, which hasn’t changed since he became President, and more on real issues such as good policy, Democratic desire to raise taxes and media bias, the better chance he will have.

    People react to hearing more voices repeat what they think. It is always easier to act when your beliefs are confirmed.

    Be the one person who focuses on real issues, as opposed to another weak-kneed “Republican” who is “oh so appalled” at Trump’s behavior. Your attitude will eventually catch on.

  133. NYCmike says:

    “It’s not going to matter if I sit this election out, Mikey, since Trump will carry NC.”

    -Spoken like a true wuss.

  134. Wes says:

    It’s ironic a guy who decided everyone but him should go to Iraq and face ISIS calls me a wuss.

    One might almost call it hypocritical.

  135. Wes says:

    Hey, Mikey, did you ever think if Trump gave me something to work with besides his narcissistic reality star persona I would make some effort to defend him?

    As a buddy of mine used to say, I won’t make it look as if you walk on water unless you’re willing to get your feet wet.

    I’ve stated many times Trump has the accomplishments but drowns them out with his puerile, boorish personality. That’s his fault, not mine.

    Since Trump has decided to actively push people away with his antics I’m just going to get out of his way and let it happen because I can’t defend someone who’s actively trying to lose an audience.

  136. dylan says:

    124—I’ll explain to you how it happens? FAILURE OF STRATEGIC VISION. and the GOP is guilty of this from top to bottom.

    1. Take the NRCC Chairperson—their SOLE job (raison d’aitre) is to PRESERVE the republican majority in the house. But yet in this last cycle there were UNPRECEDENTED levels of retirements in districts where the GOP could have carried.

    2. Laziness–how hard is it to look at the yearbook of ANY candidate you are running against for dirt.

    The Failure to account for “ballot harvesting” (and match it) in states where that is legal is an exemplar of the failure of strategic vision

    At some point, Ken C. is not responsible for the ongoing woes of the VA GOP though he certainly did not help things.

  137. Wes says:

    When Trump loses in 21 months after Dblaikie and San Diego Citizen have basically become snakes with all their contortions to explain how Trump will be the only President in history with a 40% popularity rating ever to win re-election, I’ll be here with my post mortem and tell you he should have grown up and presented the image of a respected world leader rather than a bombastic reality show host if he wanted to win.

    His public persona turns people off. It gives his supporters nothing to work with in defending him because it drowns everything else out. That makes defending him a thankless job. It’s also why he will lose.

  138. NYCmike says:


    Trump is who he always was. You can continue to evaluate his performance by continuing to mention his public person which turns people off. I have not denied that it is true.

    The fact that you choose to throw in the towel in February 2019 because of it is your style.

    Unless there is an individual who can give the Republican Party a better chance to win in 2020 than Trump, I’ll look to steer any conversation to issues which are more favorable to his re-election.

    George H W Bush was the exact opposite, and lost his re-election.

    George W Bush went middle-of-the-road, and barely survived.

    If I counseled Trump, I would ask him to tweet every day about the good things his administration has done.

    I would also want him to continue to highlight the extreme bias which the media has towards ALL Republicans, and also highlight the ghoulish nature of the far-left Democratic Party.

  139. jason says:

    wes thinks the 2020 election will hinge 100% on Trump’s persona.

    If he is right about that, he is most likely right on the result.

    But it’s possible the 2020 will not just be about Trump’s persona.

  140. jason says:

    The Babylon Bee:

    “RICHMOND, VA—Embattled Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is fighting calls for his resignation over his past wearing of blackface. He assures the public that he is not a racist and that his policy of infanticide is to be applied equally to babies of all colors.

    “When I look at babies, I don’t see skin color,” Northam told the press. “I just see obstacles to women’s rights, to be executed after a consultation with a doctor.”

    Northam said he is just the target of a vicious “noticing campaign”, where people notice things he did and then mention the things that were noticed. “I was just a happy-go-lucky infanticide governor, and you could hardly drag the press to pay attention to me,” Northam stated. “Now all of sudden I’m getting scrutinized like a common Republican.”

    Northam wasn’t sure who was out to get him, but his best guess was “babies”. “I hate babies,” Northam said before quickly adding, “but all of them equally, regardless of race.”

    Conservatives quickly condemned Northam’s comments, leading to a headline in The New York Times reading “Conservatives Eagerly Pounce On Northam’s Support For Equal Infanticide.”

  141. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Someone is not getting the message that the Democrats need to all get together in the big tent and nominate the most electable Democrat in 2020, because they hate Trump.

    “Maybe you’ve heard the warning: The country is beset by a menace. A fringe conservative minority is holding Congress hostage, extracting radical policy concessions over the will of the majority. And it’s leading the nation to fiscal, environmental and moral ruin.
    Maybe you haven’t heard this part: These dangerous conservatives are Democrats.
    “I am talking about the radical conservatives in the Democratic Party,” said Saikat Chakrabarti. “That’s who we need to counter. It’s the same across any number of issues—pay-as-you-go, free college, “Medicare for all.” These are all enormously popular in the party, but they don’t pass because of the radical conservatives who are holding the party hostage.”
    Not long ago, this would have been an outlier position even among American liberals. Today, it’s the organizing principle of a newly empowered segment of the Democratic Party, one with a foothold in the new Congress.
    Chakrabarti is chief of staff to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,”

  142. lisab says:

    DC Art Exhibit Invites People to Throw Trash at Ivanka Trump

  143. lisab says:

    sitting in this bar with white people cheering for their lil MAGA team and i came to a realization. white people joy really misaligns my chakras.

    king ra (@bellaroona)

  144. lisab says:

    oh the irony, ralph northam is desparately fighting to survive to full-term

  145. lisab says:

    vegan dinner party … “beetloaf”

  146. NYCmike says:

    One note about the Super Bowl last night, even though I didn’t care about the game one way or the other.

    I am fascinated by everyone today bemoaning the lack of “excitement” the game had.

    It is possible that the defense was just that good on both sides.

  147. Bitterlaw says:

    NYC – Both teams sucked on offense last night. Granted, defense contributed to that for both teams but it was not that stellar.

  148. NYCmike says:

    The commercials were worse than the offenses.

    Budweiser, sayonara.

    I’ll stick with Yuengling now.