McSally Leads Kelly By 2% in AZ, Trump Leads Biden By 3% in TX

Mark Kelly has entered the race to take on Martha McSally next year, but according to a new poll from OH Predictive Insights, he would start out behind by 2% to McSally.

US SENATE – ARIZONA (OH Predictive Insights)
Martha McSally (R-inc) 46%
Mark Kelly (D) 44%

Martha McSally (R-inc) 49%
Ruben Gallego (D) 41%

This poll was done February 12-13 among 600 likely voters. Meanwhile in Texas, Public Policy Polling did a poll that shows Donald Trump only ahead of Joe Biden by 3% in the state of Texas while John Cornyn only holds a 2% lead over Bet O’Rourke in a hypothetical US Senate race.

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Joe Biden (D) 46%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 49%
Kamala Harris (D) 40%

John Cornyn (R-inc) 47%
Beto O’Rourke (D) 45%

Somewhat surprised they did not poll a Trump-O’Rourke match up for President in this poll. This poll was done February 13-14 among 743 registered voters.

Posted by Dave at 9:19 pm
Filed under: General | Comments (102)

102 Responses to “McSally Leads Kelly By 2% in AZ, Trump Leads Biden By 3% in TX”

  1. Phil says:

    Love PPP. They are the North Carolina outfit that had Obama and Hillary winning NC in 12 and 16 by about three points.

    Jensen is a hack.

  2. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    Two. Was holding back since on the last thread the poster who wanted two got three, and became unhinged.

  3. Tgca says:

    Tres Bebe! Tres!

  4. jason says:

    Quatro, cabrones, quatro.

  5. Paul says:

    Quatro! Beto! Quatro!

  6. Paul says:

    Curse you! Jason

  7. jason says:

    Cornyn would have an easier time with Beto than Cruz did, doesn’t have the same “likeability” problem.

  8. jason says:

    That TX number is good for Trump too, considering its PPP.

    Trump only beat Hillary by 8. I imagine in 2020 he would beat Biden by 8 too, and have a wider margin against any of the others. Warren would be decimated.

  9. jason says:

    Poor Paul, always behind the bola número ocho.

  10. Wobbles says:

    I like PPP.

    They always show the Dems doing well, and that always helps my narrative.

    Socialist 2020!

  11. dblaikie says:

    Of course, in Paul’s and Wormtongue’s and Cory’s world, PPP is a completely valid and upright and non bias poll while Rasmussen is an outlet of the GOP propaganda machine.

  12. dblaikie says:

    I expect Worm anytime here posting his usual drivel. I suspect one of these polls of adults will show Trump under 40% and that should bring him out of his cave.

  13. Bitterlaw says:

    I looked at the caption of the case against a Trump by 16 states. One of the Defendants is the Secretary of the Air Force.

    Marv – Are you going to stand for this? Tell the Air Force to go all out defending this case.

  14. Wobbles says:

    dblaikie, I am just being flexible.

    I don’t like the internals of any poll that doesn’t fit my narrative.

    If I don’t like the poll results, I say I use the “average”.

    Tf I don’t like the “average”, I pick another poll to reference.

    There is nothing wrong with being flexible (well, unless it had to do with Trump).

    Socialist 2020!

  15. jason says:

    This is an absolute outrage.

    I know Graham is busy with the McCabe investigation but someone needs to step up and find out who knew what and when about the llama attack.

    Just in case, I plan to stand guard tonight lest this is a coordinated multi-state attack. I will have a Colt AR-15, a Mossberg semi-automatic 12 gauge shotgun and a Glock 17 ready. This is exactly the type of emergency that illustrates why you can never have too many guns.

  16. jason says:

    Bitter has gotten Marv all riled up due to the perceived slight on the Air Force, and now I am up in arms due to the unprovoked llama attack.

    I need to get Bitter angry and motivated about something too.

    Bitter, I hear someone last night inhaled some beer fumes at a bar in Radnor and then ran over a squirrel.

    I hope you will seek justice!

  17. Bitterlaw says:

    Bastard. The squirrel squisher will pay.

  18. lisab says:

    BERLIN — The Trump administration is launching a global campaign to end the criminalization of homosexuality in dozens of nations where it’s still illegal to be gay, U.S. officials tell NBC News, a bid aimed in part at denouncing Iran over its human rights record.

    U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell, the highest-profile openly gay person in the Trump administration, is leading the effort, which kicks off Tuesday evening in Berlin. The U.S. embassy is flying in LGBT activists from across Europe for a strategy dinner to plan to push for decriminalization in places that still outlaw homosexuality — mostly concentrated in the Middle East, Africa and the Caribbean.

    “It is concerning that, in the 21st century, some 70 countries continue to have laws that criminalize LGBTI status or conduct,” said a U.S. official involved in organizing the event.

    ok … i will give trump points for this … i am not sure he is serious … but in fairness he gets points

  19. lisab says:

    bernie is officially in the race …

    sooooooooo … how does he do against harris and warren?

  20. lisab says:

    “They want to run health care, education, finance. Everything…to decide who wins, who doesn’t, who’s up, who’s down, what’s true, what’s false, who lives, who dies.” sarah palin

  21. lisab says:

    4 in custody after mentally disabled man tied up, tortured on Facebook Live

    Chicago investigators are questioning four African-Americans after a Facebook Live video shows a group of people torturing a white mentally disabled man while someone yelled “F*** Trump!” and “F*** white people!”

    strangely this got no press

  22. lisab says:

    republican Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz “Democrats in the Judiciary Committee just voted against notifying ICE when an illegal alien fails a background check to buy a gun. They hate ICE so much that they’d keep ICE in the dark when illegals try to get guns!”

  23. Paul says:

    22: Is that a recent story? It sounds like something I heard a couple years ago. Disturbing no matter when.

  24. CG says:

    It happened on New Years 2017 and got plenty of press. Those charged were sentenced to between 3-8 years in prison.

  25. jason says:

    You can be sure it didn’t get 0.1% of the press the fake attack on Smollett got.

  26. jason says:

    Yahoo has had a headline for hours now “Trent Lott thinks Biden is the Democrat who can beat Trump” or something like it.

    Who really cares what Trent Lott thinks.

  27. jason says:

    Bernie’s main effect will probably be that he will make Biden look young.

  28. NYCmike says:

    Biden? Bernie?

    At least we know that “CG” and Robbie don’t want one of the socialists to be President…….that is why they will do everything they can to make sure they help elect the Republican nominee……

  29. NYCmike says:


    Maybe you will have made a smart decision to NOT get a 401K, as it looks like Illinois will tax Peter Private to pay Paul Public.

  30. NYCmike says:

    Sherrod Brown rumored to be IN to seek Oval Office.

  31. Bitterlaw says:

    I am sure that there is life in other places in the universe. We should send Walt to look for it. When those other beings see that we he have an immortal representative, they will call off any plans to invade.

  32. ssq says:

    Sherrod Brown rumored to be IN to seek Oval Office.”

    Has anyone told him its in DC?

  33. jason says:

    I saw today where 300k new galaxies were discovered.

    This is significant, about 100 billion were thought to exist, and here are another 300k.

  34. jason says:

    I am surprised Peter Paul and Mary Buttigieg has not taken off yet on the Dem side.

  35. Bitterlaw says:

    Every galaxy matters. Jason is just a Milky Way snob.

  36. Tom says:

    All 300K additional galaxies needed to accommodate liberal agendas.

  37. Paul says:

    I think Sherrod Brown is the Dems best bet.

  38. Wes says:

    I think Mikey meant to type IA—as in, Iowa. That’s the first contest in the presidential primaries. As a Midwesterner who had to make inroads among Trump supporters to win reelection last, it would make sense for Brown to reach out to those same kinds of people in the Hawkeye State.

  39. lisab says:

    american woman who left usa and joined isis, and advocated usa muslims killing american citizens by rumning over them with trucks

    wants to return to the usa

    abc will give her a half hour of prime-time tonight

    “she is a victim”

  40. Wes says:

    Brown would definitely be a formidable opponent for Trump, but I doubt Dems would nominate him if for no other reason than practicality:

    If Brown beat Trump, Dems would automatically lose a Senate seat since DeWine would appoint a GOP replacement.

  41. NYCmike says:


    I typed “IN”, as opposed to “OUT”.

  42. Barrett says:

    My gut tells me that Biden is in truth probably the only one to lead Trump.

    I imagine Harris, Sanders, and Warren are a 50/50 split. I would imagine that Trump would be ahead of O’Rourke.

    Then again, my gut also likes Vanilla Coke and Chicken/Bacon/Ranch Taquitos. We will see.

  43. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The dream scenario for the Democrats is that Biden finishes first in the early primaries; most the other candidates drop out and endorse him. Then the focus of the Democratic convention becomes defeating Trump, and all factions unit and the losing candidates appear on stage with Biden and sing kumbaya together.

    It could happen, but things could also break down into total chaos. The early primaries will likely provide the signal of which direction it will go.

  44. lisab says:

    no way is warren ahead of trump

    she is already being heckled at her stump speeches for being fauxohontos

  45. lisab says:

    the dream for the dems would be something like a biden-harris ticket

    but i think harris is going to try to take biden out

    so it may end up being biden-warren

    which is a beatable ticket

  46. lisab says:

    Bernie Sanders’s 2020 policy agenda: Medicare for All; action on climate change; $15 an hour minimum wage

  47. lisab says:

    CNN to host Bernie Sanders at 2020 town hall

  48. lisab says:

    nytimes: Americans shocked by impact of new tax law: “My jaw hit the floor”

    (because tax refund is lower)

  49. Wes says:

    My mistake, Mikey, since IN is the abbreviation for Indiana I thought you had incorrectly used for Iowa.

    I’m betting since Trump won by edging Hillary in several big industrial states, most located in the Midwest, Biden will pick a Midwestern pol for Veep.

    That would actually be a nightmare scenario for Trump.

    Amy Klobuchar might be his best bet as a liberal Midwestern woman who wins comfortably in a state demographically similar to the ones Biden would need to flip back to the Dem fold.

  50. Wes says:

    Plus, unlike Brown, Klobuchar wouldn’t put a Senate seat in danger by winning. I think the Senate is an uphill battle for the Dems in 2020 simply because of seat placement, but Schumer, knowing his side already has the only seat guaranteed to flip next year, wouldn’t want to risk giving Republicans a free seat once Brown had to resign to move up.

  51. lisab says:

    Kamala Harris Says She’d Support Changing “Columbus Day” To “Indigenous Peoples’ Day”

    and … italian americans will now vote republican

    good job!

  52. lisab says:

    Amy Klobuchar might be his best bet as a liberal Midwestern woman

    she is not well liked in mn

    i livein a liberal town and theywere making fun of her on the radio here …

    she has a likability issue

  53. lisab says:

    i personally know nothing about her,

    but people were telling story after story of the bad things she has done to the “little people”

  54. Paul says:

    I’m sure they were video taping their abuse of a mentally disabled person while talking about Klobochar.

  55. Wes says:

    Yet she’s never won by less than 20 points. I’m aware Klobuchar only puts on the “Minnesota nice” veneer (blech, gag me!) as a PR stunt to win office, but she’s a supremely successful pol who works hard and can play to a key demographic Dems need to oust Trump.

    She has a nascent reputation as a harsh taskmaster for her her staff, but I’m not sure a lot of people care about how Senators treat their staff. Otherwise, Babs Mikulski wouldn’t have been Senator for 30 years while Schumer would never have made it to the upper chamber in the first place.

  56. lisab says:

    “You know, it is George Washington Day here in New York, unlike the rest of the country, because George Washington, native son of New York,… He was New York’s big papa,” donald trump

  57. lisab says:

    Yet she’s never won by less than 20 points. I’m aware Klobuchar only puts on the “Minnesota nice” veneer …

    apparently her father was a popular sports person in minnesota, and she gets by on his popularity

    although she herself has been known to throw things at her aides …

    so, like warren, she has a likability issue

  58. Wes says:

    I’ve been saying all along while I think Trump has burned too many bridges to win nationally he will carry NC next year, though he will have to work for it. Civitas seems to agree with me:

  59. Wes says:

    I think the governorship will be the real battleground here. Cooper has had high favorables as a powerless Governor. Now that Dems have the numbers to sustain his vetoes, I expect Cooper to lose support unlike Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan by dint of now having a place at the table.

    If Forest gets a clear shot at Cooper without having to face McCrory or another serious candidate in the primary I expect that race to be a Tossup. This is an instance where Trump’s having to work for the state will help the GOP as energized Trump voters here swamped the Dems in 2016 with McCrory barely losing because the General Assembly hamstrung him with that ridiculous bathroom bill.

  60. jason says:

    Sherrod Brown is the most dangerous Dem to Trump in my opinion.

    But I don’t think Dems will nominate either one.

  61. jason says:

    Huh, most dangerous after Biden I should have said.

  62. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    The Green New Deal for California may have to include more flood control and snow plows to deal with our unending drought:

    “California Braces for Unending Drought,” New York Times, 9 May 2016 “Despite winter rains that replenished reservoirs and eased dry conditions in parts of Northern California, (Gov) Brown suggested that the drought may never entirely end, and that the state needed to adapt to life with less water.

    @NWSSanDiego 11 hours ago 19 Feb 2019
    San Diego is in 21st place among the all-time rainiest seasons from 10/01 to 02/18. Another interesting note: San Diego now sits at 10.35 inches for the season, which just passed its complete seasonal average of 10.34 inches.

    The next major storm with rain/snow starts Wednesday, and another one is right behind it. Where is Noah? We may need to build a Big Green Ark.

  63. jason says:

    I agree with lisab about Klobuchar. Yeah, she got 60% against an obscure state rep who raised $200k against her $10 million, (and who she outspent an astounding 40-1), but even so she lost over 30 counties after winning all but 8 in 2012 against a better candidate.

    And her MN nice image is tarnished by the charges she mistreats her staff. You can bet that if she becomes a threat, other Dems will exploit this and probably get some of the ex-staffers to come forward.

    VP? Zzzzzz…..

  64. Wes says:

    Because we know Donald Trump has never had any charges of mistreatment of subordinates levied against him…

  65. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    66. “Because we know Donald Trump has never had any charges of mistreatment of subordinates levied against him…”

    Yes, but when your campaigning against Trump because he is an ignorant, racist, bigot, who harasses subordinates — its a bit hypocritical to nominate an opponent who has been accused of similar conduct. Too bad Robespierre is not alive to run the Democratic Party; he strongly believed only the virtuous should rule (or for that matter even live).

  66. Wes says:

    I’ve never known Democrats to be worried about hypocrisy, SDC. The party of the 2012 “War on Women” campaign ran defense to keep a drunk pig who left a woman to suffocate in the back of his car in the Senate for over 40 years.

  67. Wes says:

    Democrats eagerly embraced the #MeToo banner after Harvey Weinstein became a liability but have shunned Kirsten Gillibrand for calling for Al Franken to resign after his #MeToo violations became public knowledge.

    The Dems are a party of pure hypocrisy. They don’t care about consistency—only about winning.

  68. jason says:

    Wow, so even the “reason” of why he faked the attacks is also fake?

    “The FBI and the US Postal Inspection Service are currently investigating whether Jussie Smollett played a role in sending a threatening letter addressed to him at Empire’s Chicago studio prior to the alleged attack, two federal officials confirm to ABC News. The accusation, made by the two brothers who were persons of interest, has not been confirmed.”

  69. jason says:

    “Because we know Donald Trump has never had any charges of mistreatment of subordinates levied against him…”

    Frankly, considering his personality and all the years he has had business ventures of all times, the complaints are remarkably few.

    Anyone really interested in what Trump is as a boss should read this. Seems like a mixed bag.

  70. Tina says:

    Rinos got to Rino.

    This is likely the only thing truthful coming out of Mccabes mouth,

  71. jason says:

    I wouldn’t believe anything this guy says.

  72. jason says:

    They don’t care about consistency—only about winning.”

    Actually, that is pretty consistent.

  73. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe we can save time and money in 2020. Just hold the election in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If Trump wins those states, he wins. If the Dem wins all three, the Dem wins. Otherwise, the winner of 2 of 3 wins.

  74. lisab says:

    And her MN nice image is tarnished

    at least in mn she does not seem to have a “nice” image

    people don’t seem to like her

    of course, people did not like nixon either

  75. lisab says:

    i guess they liked her father a lot

  76. lisab says:

    does this sound like anyone we know?

  77. lisab says:

    In Wake of ‘Attack’ Scandal

  78. lisab says:

    “If You’re White…. You Don’t Know What It’s Like To Be Poor” — Bernie Sanders

  79. lisab says:

    Kamala Harris Descended From Slave Owners

  80. Tina says:

    Looks like John Solomon will be bereaking a story about Ugly Ohr, who wrote the “third dossier.”

    The coup plotters are now attacking each other.

  81. Bitterlaw says:

    Maybe Harris can dig up her slave-raping ancestors and Cromwell the skeletons.

  82. Bitterlaw says:

    I defer to Tina on what should be done with FBI agents if they broke the law. However, it does raise an interesting question for the future. What should the FBI or Cabinet do if it is suspected and there is evidence that the President is collaborating with a foreign government against US interests.?

    I do not believe that Trump did anything wrong or illegal with Russians. Just interested in the hypothetical.

  83. NYCmike says:

    -The more I see her, the less I think she will be the nominee. She is simply too arrogant, but without having the talent needed to pull it off.

  84. Wes says:

    It’s pretty bad when someone from the same state as CHUCK SCHUMER thinks a pol is too arrogant.

  85. Tina says:

    Well, the 25 th amendment should not be cited by partisan, Drat fib agents, for starters.

    Maybe, Hillary needs to answer Bl’s quesrion. I mean the main culprit was somebody from England, who used Russian sources.

  86. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    79. does this sound like anyone we know?

    lisab That is exactly what is going on. You can tell from the canned talking points; the daily search for and quoting from negative articles about Trump; the fake claims to be a true conservative Republican — while quoting only far leftist sources.

    But hey, its a living.

  87. lisab says:

    plus the automatic replies to any counterpoints brought up, “as if from a script”


    the references to “tinfoil hats” and derogatory comments if they start losing the argument

    it is a pretty close match isn’t it?

  88. lisab says:

    Elizabeth Warren Claims Two Men In Colonial Outfits, Shouting This Is A MAGA Colony, Assaulted Her With Smallpox-Infested Blankets

  89. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    90. Plus there is zero personal side to him. Most people end up revealing a few facts about themselves on the blog that shows their human. And your right, his tinfoil hat type comments are the same and repetitive.

  90. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    91. If they did not have rum on their breath, they were not authentic.

  91. lisab says:

    Plus there is zero personal side to him.

    the one personal thing was stated by addisonst, they apparently knew each other somehow.

    addisonst said that the troll had no career, and never had a relationship of any kind, and basically was a parasite on his parents

    in response, he threatened to dox addisonst

  92. lisab says:

    If they did not have rum on their breath, they were not authentic.

    plus … wouldn’t people in massachusetts be wearing pilgrim outfits?

    it does not add up

  93. Bitterlaw says:

    HHR has Russian trolls?


    We’re not big enough to deserve any. Also, Robbie and Corey were here for years. Trump was a Democrat when they started posting.

  94. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    94. If that is true, its sad. He seems intelligent, but a bit too tightly wound up.

  95. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    96. “HHR has Russian trolls?”

    Where did lisab or I say anything about Russian trolls?

    The excerpt that lisab quoted referred to political operatives, who are know to be utilized by political campaigns and parties. As far as “here for years” political boiler rooms utilizing the internet has been around for years as well, and often successive individuals maintain an existing online identity.

  96. SanDiegoCitizen says:

    96. “We’re not big enough to deserve any”

    Political operatives will often have a large portfolio of internet sites they post on each day. This one has the added benefit of being very lightly moderated. I have dealt with Russian trolls on energy related sites — they are somewhat awkward as posters and fluster easily when confronted on an issue.

  97. Bitterlaw says:

    Corey and Robbie are not trolls. They are self-righteous and annoying. Both can be true.

  98. dblaikie says:

    Well I see the rcp average now for Trump’s approval is now above 44%. Back some time I said that I believe that Trump turned the corner with his offer of a compromise during the depth of the shutdown. Of course, as usual, some derided me, and accused me of being a hopeless Trump syphocant. Well I am not, but his upsurge in the polls shows that maybe I was right.

    Now please understand me, Trump can be his own worst enemy and shoot himself in the foot. But if the few years have taught me anything about Trump, it is his remarkable ability to bounce back. With 130 million already in his reelection coffers it is folly to count him out.