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Trump Leads Biden By 4% in NC

We received a new poll from the Civitas Institute that was done by Harper Polling that shows Donald Trump with a 4% lead over Joe Biden in the state of North Carolina and an even larger lead against the other top Democrats.

PRESIDENT – NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas/Harper)
Donald Trump (R-inc) 43%
Joe Biden (D) 39%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 46%
Bernie Sanders (D) 34%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 45%
Kamala Harris (D) 34%

Donald Trump (R-inc) 44%
Cory Booker (D) 36%

This poll was done February 11-13 among 500 likely voters.

Posted by Dave at 7:42 am
Filed under: General | Comments (73)

73 Responses to “Trump Leads Biden By 4% in NC”

  1. Wes says:

    I mentioned this poll yesterday. NC has trended GOP downballot even as Republicans have lost ground since 2004 on the presidential level. Trump will carry the state because native Tarheels have homogenized as a GOP-heavy entity and largely outvoted Northern liberals migrating to Charlotte and the Triangle.

    Trump can’t take us for granted and will have to work for the state, but he’ll win here by a couple of points.

    His having to fight for our EVs should be a boon to the gubernatorial nominee barring a bruising primary.

    I’m not too worried about the Senate race as Dems have no A-list candidates for that race, and Tillis is pretty much in the political mean of the state without the entitlement mentality that ultimately doomed Liddy Dole.

  2. Wes says:

    On the topic de jure of the previous thread, Corey is not a DNC plant. He’s a sanctimonious, pedantic, irritating jerk, but he’s no DNC troll. He simply despises Trump and adores all things connected to the Bush family.

    Similarly Robbie despises Trump but is no DNC troll despite his graying blog persona.

  3. jason says:

    Amoral Scumbag is an Amoral Scumbag who would sell his mother and sister into sexual bondage if it was somehow detrimental to Trump. He has the moral compass of a floating turd and the fact he thinks he is somehow morally superior to Trump is probably the greatest delusion I have ever witnessed here. He has been engaged in the same M.O. here for over a decade, it never changes. We saw it with Romney, we saw it with every R candidate not named Jeb, we would see it with any R president not named Jeb. No MSM lie, fabrication, hit job, dishonesty is ever too low for him to use against Republicans and conservatives. He is not a Republican or a conservative.

    Corey is a bitter, narrow minded sanctimonious ass who can’t deal with being wrong, which he often is. He is the worst amateur psychologist in history. But I think he is sincere in his beliefs. Despite our many differences and arguments, we are probably fairly close ideologically and in 2012 were on the same side as Romney supporters defending Romney against a lot of the bogus attacks levied against him here (especially by Amoral Scumbag).

    Both want a s socialist to win in 2020 because that will be bad for Trump.

    Both are still living in a 2016 primary world where Jeb Bush is the clear the field, suck up all the money, hog all the endorsements, front running juggernaut. 90% of their animus towards Trump still stems from the fact Trump thwarted Jeb’s plans to be decimated by Hillary in the GE.

    Neither one is a DNC troll.

  4. Tina says:

    Has McCabe and the other coup plotters even mentioned why the 25th amendment was applicable to a political disagreement?

    I hope he is perp walked really soon. Maybe, he and comedy can share a cell?

  5. jason says:

    “Trump can’t take us for granted and will have to work for the state, but he’ll win here by a couple of points.

    His having to fight for our EVs should be a boon to the gubernatorial nominee barring a bruising primary”

    So nothing changed, really.

    Trump had to fight for NC in 2016 too, it was never a slam dunk for him . Hillary invested heavily in NC because it was close.

    In the end Trump won by 3 and now wes says will win by a couple of points again.

    “Charlotte Observer Nov 2, 2016

    With North Carolina a key swing state, it seems as though we can’t go a week without one of the presidential candidates visiting.

    That’s because we can’t.

    Since June, Democrat Hillary Clinton has visited the state 10 times. (She stopped in two cities – Raleigh and Charlotte – on Oct. 23 and Raleigh and the Greenville area Thursday.)

    And Republican Donald Trump has visited the state 12 times as of Saturday. (On three of those visits, he stopped in two cities on the same day so he’s covered more ground.)”

  6. Tina says:

    Wait a minute, I thought comedy testified that he was not under any investigation. Seems like his bathroom counterpart,
    McCabe, disagrees with Comedy.

    “The things that were causing us to believe that a threat to national security might exist had been building up throughout the investigation,” he told McCain. “It was the way the president had been interacting with us, the way he talked about the case publicly, tried to undermine our effort. To me, he made it clear he wasn’t happy about what we were doing.”

  7. jason says:

    Has McCabe and the other coup plotters even mentioned why the 25th amendment was applicable to a political disagreement?”

    That is why I think the word coup fits.

    Bitter misses the point in the previous thread where he asks “what should the FBI do if they suspect the President is colluding with foreign powers, etc”.

    Whatever they do, it shouldn’t involve the 25th amendment.

    And I think the answer is, they present their concerns to the AG.

  8. jason says:

    To me, he made it clear he wasn’t happy about what we were doing.”

    LOL.

    I guess Trump should have been “happy” he was being investigated based on a fake dossier concocted by a foreign agent paid by the DNC.

  9. Tina says:

    McCabe also opened up,an investigation into Jeff sessions.

    I mean he really took hillarys loss quite hard.

    Prolly even harder than the jebots.

  10. Tina says:

    Yet McCabe before congress (underoath)

    No obstruction. No interference. No nothing, we are the Fib, comedy is fired, but we move forward and the president has every right,

  11. Chicon says:

    6 – Hi Tina. Is it true that McCain was aware of all this and did nothing to stop it?

  12. jason says:

    Yahoo Headline:

    “Lakers reportedly ‘concerned about’ LeBron James’ groin: How hard should they push him?”

  13. jason says:

    Is it true that McCain was aware of all this and did nothing to stop it?”

    LOL

    MDS at its best.

  14. jason says:

    Nice…

    “Attorneys representing the Kentucky high school student involved in a confrontation that went viral on social media last month announced Tuesday that they were suing The Washington Post for $250 million in compensatory and punitive damages.

    The lawsuit, which was filed in federal court in Kentucky, accused The Post of practicing “a modern-day form of McCarthyism” by targeting Nicholas Sandmann and “using its vast financial resources to enter the bully pulpit by publishing a series of false and defamatory print and online articles … to smear a young boy who was in its view an acceptable casualty in their war against the president.”

  15. Chicon says:

    I’m not sure if it’s true, which is why I asked. But, on 2nd thought, it couldn’t have been true, given that McCain was a POW.

  16. Chicon says:

    On 3rd thought, McCain was a country first guy. If he were aware of the FBI coup and did nothing to stop it, that means it was all true. That’s gotta be why McCain did nothing – he kept quiet for the good of the country.

  17. Chicon says:

    12 – sub-headline “Just hard enough” says Magic….

  18. Wes says:

    It’s true Trump worked hard for NC’s EVs in 2016, Jason, for he realized he would likely have no path to the White House without carrying this state.

    As President rather than a presidential candidate he should not have to fight so hard for this state though. He will because he’s riled up a number of people in suburban areas. Notice GWB hardly had to campaign here in 2000 and 2004, the latter time with an NC pol on the Dem ticket.

    Now the reason Trump will have to energize his voters here isn’t all because of him. The residuals from Obama’s assiduous campaign here in 2008 have lessened the GOP presidential advantage that existed here for four decades from 1968 to 2004 even as rural and exurban Tarheels have sharply increased GOP power downballot.

    We still are a Lean GOP state on the presidential level though locally a largely Republican one, reflecting this state’s perennial split personality where Dems do better on one front (in this instance the presidency) while Republicans are dominant elsewhere (since 2010 with the notable exception of the 2016 gubernatorial race and recent judicial elections almost everything else).

  19. Waingro says:

    This Civitas poll bodes well for Tillis. I can’t imagine his seat gets remotely close to being flipped if Trump carries.

  20. Waingro says:

    Bradley Byrne has announced he’s running for Doug Jones AL-Sen seat.

  21. Wes says:

    Basically Sanders wants the US to become France with no borders:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1097831093959577601

    As Democrats always like to say regarding tax cuts, how are we going to pay for it?

  22. mnw says:

    Hey, Chicon!

    How ’bout them Bluz?

  23. jason says:

    given that McCain was a POW.”

    Is that all he was? I guess that is like saying Lebron James is a basketball player.

    Blaming McCain for the partisans at the FBI is really asinine.

    It was not McCain’s role to “do something” about the FBI because he had no way of knowing what evidence they had or didn’t have.

    Besides the “McCain knew all this” is of course just a BS smear, most of the information that has come out results from all the congressional investigations.

  24. Wes says:

    Roy Cooper would be Tillis ‘ strongest opponent, Wain. Since Cooper is running for re-election, Dems have been reduced to B- and C-listers mulling the race with no obviously strong candidates. Josh Stein would be a B+ candidate, but given his narrow victory against the author of the infamous bathroom bill, I doubt Stein will want to run against an inoffensive incumbent for a federal office in a year when Dems aren’t going to win the presidential race. Stein will probably wait till 2022 to see if a) Burr honors his pledge to retire and b) Trump is still President with a six-year itch looming. There’s also the possibility Stein waits for 2024 to run for Governor to replace Cooper or challenge a first-term Dan Forest. That would actually probably be his easiest route for a promotion given the way Senate races have gone for the Dems here since 2010.

  25. Wes says:

    NC has a weird dichotomy in top-level statewide races. We haven’t split races between President and Senate since 1968, but Dems have dominated gubernatorial races even since Republicans started electing Governors with Dems going 8-4 since 1972. That didn’t much matter till the 1990s when the Governor first received veto power.

    The veto has been a double-edged sword for the Governor, with Perdue routinely overridden in 2011 and 2012 while McCrory took the hit for the General Assembly’s excesses in 2016. Now that Cooper has veto-sustaining minorities in the Legislature, he can’t hide behind his powerlessness and is likely to lose popularity going into next year.

  26. jason says:

    As President rather than a presidential candidate he should not have to fight so hard for this state though. He will because he’s riled up a number of people in suburban areas.”

    I don’t really agree with this. NC has been decided by 3 points or less in the last 3 cycles, I am skeptical it will be close again because “Trump has riled people up in suburbs”.

    I do agree with the rest of wes’ analysis however. Basically NC is a “lean GOP” only.

  27. Wes says:

    You don’t live here, Jason, and I’ve never been wrong in my analysis of the races in this state. Do yourself a favor and quit looking like an idiot by blathering about things you know nothing about.

  28. jason says:

    Bradley Byrne has announced he’s running for Doug Jones AL-Sen seat.”

    Is that good?

  29. jason says:

    You don’t live here, Jason, and I’ve never been wrong in my analysis of the races in this state.”

    LOL

    You were certainly wrong when you gave up on Tillis on election night, while jason, who doesn’t “live there” was right.

    And besides, I actually agreed with you on most of your analysis.

    I just don’t agree that the reason NC will be close is only due to Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs.

    It would be close because its a competitive state for the other reasons you mentioned.

  30. jason says:

    wes says I look like an idiot for agreeing with him.

    Oh well…

  31. Wes says:

    It’s like when MD, Corey, and Howard Dean couldn’t wait to tell me how much more about this state and its electoral dynamics than I do. They didn’t know what they were talking about and only went off their feelings. Actual evidence ranging from discussions with people across the state to polls to analysis over voter turnout as well as the state’s history is what I’ve relied on.

    It’s quite clear to anyone not either overly enamored of Trump or viscerally opposed to him he has engaged voters against him moreso than in 2016 but will hang on because his base is just big enough to ensure him a victory.

  32. jason says:

    On 3rd thought, McCain was a country first guy. \”

    Absolutely.

    That is why he volunteered to fight for his country and put himself in harm’s way.

    That is why he sacrificed so much for his country, being tortured and maimed and spending years in a POW camp.

    That is why he spent decades as a stalwart defender of the military.

    That is why he spent decades in public service, and was rewarded by his constituents who re-elected him countless times.

    You are right, McCain always put country first.

  33. jason says:

    It’s quite clear to anyone not either overly enamored of Trump or viscerally opposed to him he has engaged voters against him moreso than in 2016 but will hang on because his base is just big enough to ensure him a victory.”

    He only won by 3 in 2016. So I don’t know how many more voters he can “engage against him” and still win.

    If only won by 3 in 2016 and you think he will win “by a few points” in 2020 I don’t see how he lost that many votes.

    It makes more sense to me that the fact is NC is a competitive state. It was competitive when McCain ran, when Romney ran, when Trump ran, and it will be competitive again in 2020.

  34. Tina says:

    Chicon,

    Late Senator McCain passed a dossier to comedy,

    Comedy already had the dossier since it’s obvious they used it to spy on the Trump Campaign.

    The coup plotters are turning.

    McCabe has again contradicted himself in his media appearances,

  35. dblaikie says:

    Well I see the rcp average now for Trump’s approval is now above 44%. Back some time I said that I believe that Trump turned the corner with his offer of a compromise during the depth of the shutdown. Of course, as usual, some derided me, and accused me of being a hopeless Trump syphocant. Well I am not, but his upsurge in the polls shows that maybe I was right.

    Now please understand me, Trump can be his own worst enemy and shoot himself in the foot. But if the few years have taught me anything about Trump, it is his remarkable ability to bounce back. With 130 million already in his reelection coffers it is folly to count him out.

  36. jason says:

    I don’t think there was anything wrong with McCain passing on the fake dossier to the FBI. What the FBI did with it was what was wrong.

  37. jason says:

    With 130 million already in his reelection coffers it is folly to count him out.”

    Don’t delude yourself.

    The Dems will raise a billion to defeat him, if not more.

  38. Waingro says:

    “Bradley Byrne has announced he’s running for Doug Jones AL-Sen seat.”

    Is that good?”

    Sounds like he’s a decent “Establishment” candidate.

  39. jason says:

    Looks like Byrne is a former Dem who became a Rep in 1997. He wrote a bill setting red snapper limits in the Gulf.

    He said he didn’t have reason to doubt Roy Moore’s accusers (really?).

    I did notice he has statewide appeal, he actually won the primary for Gov. in 2010 but lost the runoff to Bentley.

    Looks like he could beat the little Marxist union hall lawyer.

  40. Bitterlaw says:

    Waingro – I like the Establishment for one reason. In order to get into the Establishment, you have to win elections. I hate to tell you this but Trump is now part of the Establishment
    .

  41. Waingro says:

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    Attorney General William Barr is preparing to announce as early as next week the completion of Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, with plans for Barr to submit to Congress soon after a summary of Mueller’s confidential report.
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  42. Waingro says:

    #40, Bitter, notice I put that in quotes. Just using the “popular” language so-to-speak.

  43. jason says:

    During the campaign, he was accused by his opponents in the Republican primary of supporting evolution and of doubting that the Bible was infallible. ”

    Horrors….

    Now there is something the deadenders can sink their teeth into.

  44. jason says:

    Bitter is right.

    The deadenders hate establishment candidates because they win, when sending messages is the goal

  45. Chicon says:

    Deadender question…

    Weren’t the earliest Trump supporters considered deadenders? Are they still deadenders? Or did he lose deadender status once he won?

  46. Chicon says:

    Mnw – how’s retirement?

    The Blues are kicking arse and taking names. Great turnaround. Hawks have also turned the corner, although not near as convincingly as your Blues.

  47. Messy says:

    The Supreme Court has just re-incorporated the 8th amendment into the 14th in an excessive civil forfeiture case. UNANIMOUSLY! RBG and Kasich agreed on this one.

  48. Messy says:

    36. There was no fake dossier. There was a real one though.

  49. jason says:

    Weren’t the earliest Trump supporters considered deadenders? Are they still deadenders? Or did he lose deadender status once he won?”

    Yes
    Yes
    Yes

    Not all deadender candidates lose, only the vast majority.

    I was certainly wrong about Trump, and I certainly considered those that supported him deadenders.

    But I really don’t think the lesson learned here is that we should support deadenders.

    Most of them go the way of COD, Angle, Buck, Mourdock, Akin, Moore, McDaniels, etc. etc. etc. and lose winnable seats or they cause winnable seats to be lost (Ward, Arpaio, Mo Brooks etc. etc etc.).

  50. lisab says:

    Michelle Obama would be tied with Biden as frontrunner if she ran in 2020, poll shows
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  51. jason says:

    UNANIMOUSLY! RBG and Kasich agreed on this one.”

    Fabulous.

    I am glad SCOTUS judge Kasich is getting along with RBG.

  52. jason says:

    There was no fake dossier. There was a real one though.”

    LOL

    There was an actual dossier with fake content.

    I think Messy learned from the “fake but accurate” school of moonbat thought.

  53. jason says:

    RBG and Kasich agreed on this one.”

    Every time I think Messy has reach bottom on her ignorance she manages to dig deeper.

  54. jason says:

    has reach bottom?

    I guess my excuse is I am not a native speaker.

  55. NYCmike says:

    ““That is why he sacrificed so much for his country, being tortured and maimed and spending years in a POW camp.””

    -McCain could have been released earlier if he had given certain information. For that, he should be honored.

  56. NYCmike says:

    ““That is why he spent decades in public service, and was rewarded by his constituents who re-elected him countless times.””

    -Oh Lord, seriously?

    It is a “sacrifice” to work in the Senate or in the House?

    There are several reasons most of these s.o.b.’s go into politics…….”sacrifice” is not one of them.

  57. NYCmike says:

    ““Waingro – I like the Establishment for one reason. In order to get into the Establishment, you have to win elections. I hate to tell you this but Trump is now part of the Establishment.””

    -Have to look at some others, but both Akin and Mourdock were already elected officials.

    In fact, Mourdock had been a state-wide elected official.

    Using Bitterlaw’s definition, they would both be included in the “Establishment”.

  58. NYCmike says:

    “How ’bout them Bluz?”

    -Have to jump in on this one, as I always loved Tarasenko, and watching him this year has been great!

  59. Cash Cow TM says:

    Statewide Teacher strike in WV…day 1/

    They opposed billan EVIL Republican bill that would:

    –provide another 5% pay raise for teachers and service personnel

    –add 600 more school counselors and nurses

    –better state funding the 11 struggling counties with smallest student population

    –better funding for all the counties that have increasing local tax revenues (my county would have gained $3.2MM)

    –provide $250 tax credit for teachers and service personnel to reimburse them for things they buy for the classroom

    –give teachers more say in what students get promoted

    –provide for increased funding for more police in schools

    –give certified math teachers a $2000 one time bonus

    –pay $500 each year to any teacher who used less than 4 personal days

    –allow teachers to again use unused sick leave to buy so many months/years of health insurance when they retire
    _________________________

    TEACHER OPPOSED IT BECAUSE:

    1. it would also provide for WV to have up to 7 public charter schools (no more than 2 in any given year (43 States and D.C. have charter schools)

    2. would have provided for establishment of up to 1,000 Education Savings Accounts for special needs students and students who are bullied.
    ########################################
    Go figure…

  60. Cash Cow TM says:

    Teacher strike day TWO…

  61. NYCmike says:

    Homeschool is a better option for West Virginia.

    Close down the schools!

  62. NYCmike says:

    Ca$h Cow,

    Didn’t they get a big raise just last year?

  63. Messy says:

    52. There is no fake content either. Most of the dossier has been verified.

  64. jason says:

    It is a “sacrifice” to work in the Senate or in the House?”

    Yes. I think its a miserable existence. I certainly wouldn’t do it for $174k a year.

  65. NYCmike says:

    “Yes. I think its a miserable existence. I certainly wouldn’t do it for $174k a year.”

    -You sound like MD.

    What is so miserable about it?

  66. jason says:

    Most of the dossier has been verified.”

    Zzzzz……MSM fake news.

    It’s pure garbage, and you know it.

    It was written by a dishonest and partisan hack who admitted he “would do anything to stop Trump”, it’s completely unverified, and it was paid by the DNC.

  67. jason says:

    MD thought Congress was a miserable place to work?

    Who knew?

    I bet McCain could have made a lot more money in the private sector. A lot more.

  68. jason says:

    Messy, have you verified that Kasich is on the Supreme Court?

  69. NYCmike says:

    No, how you spoke about $174K as if it was a pittance.

  70. NYCmike says:

    “I bet McCain could have made a lot more money in the private sector. A lot more.”

    Doing what?

  71. Chicon says:

    Yeah, poor John. He made a boatload because he was a Senator. He sacrificed nothing being a Senator. He sacrificed a ton in the military.

    If McCain found out the FBI was going to go 25th Amendment on a President Johnny liked, he would have raised hell. But it was someone he hated, sooo…crickets. phony.

  72. NYCmike says:

    I guess Kerry could have made a lot more to…..but instead, both of them found women with money to marry.

    Good for them.